Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Medpace first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Medpace 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Lauren Morris, Medpace's Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，Medpace 的投資者關係總監 Lauren Morris。你可以開始了。

Good morning and thank you for joining Medpace's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Also on the call today is our CEO, August Troendle; our President, Jesse Geiger; and our CFO, Kevin Brady. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks and responses to your questions during this teleconference may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

早安，感謝您參加 Medpace 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的還有我們的執行長 August Troendle；我們的總裁 Jesse Geiger；以及我們的財務長 Kevin Brady。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們在本次電話會議中的評論和對您的問題的回答可能包括 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

These statements involve inherent assumptions with known and unknown risks and uncertainties, as well as other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. These factors are discussed in our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Please note that we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements even if estimates change. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of today's forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date after today.

這些聲明涉及固有假設，具有已知和未知的風險和不確定性，以及可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期有重大差異的其他重要因素。這些因素在我們的 10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中進行了討論。請注意，即使估計發生變化，我們也不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。因此，您不應依賴今天的任何前瞻性陳述來代表我們在今天之後的任何日期的觀點。

During this call, we will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not superior to or replacement for the comparable GAAP measures, but we believe these measures help investors gain a more complete understanding of results.

在本次電話會議中，我們也會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。這些非公認會計準則指標並不優於或取代可比較的公認會計準則指標，但我們相信這些指標有助於投資者更全面地了解結果。

A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release and earnings call presentation slides provided in connection with today's call. The slides are available in the investor relations section of our website at investor.medpace.com.

在今天的電話會議上提供的收益新聞稿和收益電話會議簡報幻燈片中，可以找到此類非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表。幻燈片可在我們網站 investor.medpace.com 的投資者關係部分找到。

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to August Troendle.

說完這些，我現在想把電話轉給 August Troendle。

Good day, everyone. Our quarter one net awards were down sequentially and year over year with a net book-to-bill ratio of 0.90. This was primarily a reflection of high pipeline cancellations in prior quarters as previously discussed.

大家好。我們第一季的淨獎勵環比和年比均有所下降，淨訂單出貨比為 0.90。這主要反映了前幾個季度大量管道取消的情況，正如之前所討論的。

Backlog cancellations were modestly elevated in Q1, but pre-backlog cancellations were worse, impacting Q1 and future projected backlog net awards. RFP flow was strong in Q1, but quality has been variable and decisions are slowing.

第一季積壓訂單取消量略有增加，但先前的積壓訂單取消量更為嚴重，影響了第一季和未來預期的積壓訂單淨獎勵。第一季的 RFP 流量強勁，但品質參差不齊，決策速度也在放緩。

We continue to see a path to improved backlog growth reflected in book-to-bill ratios above 1.15 in Q3 and Q4. However, this will depend upon moderating cancellations and an improved business climate.

我們繼續看到積壓訂單成長改善的路徑，這反映在第三季和第四季的訂單出貨比超過 1.15。然而，這將取決於取消率的降低和商業環境的改善。

Jesse will now provide comments on the quarter. Jesse?

傑西現在將對本季發表評論。傑西？

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Revenue for the first quarter of 2025 was $558.6 million, which represents a year over year increase of 9.3%. Net new business awards entering backlog in the first quarter decreased 18.8% from the prior year to $500 million resulting in a 0.9 net book-to-bill. And ending backlog as of March 31, 2025 was approximately $2.8 billion, a decrease of 2.1% from the prior year.

謝謝大家，早安。2025 年第一季營收為 5.586 億美元，年增 9.3%。第一季進入積壓狀態的淨新業務獎勵較上年同期下降 18.8% 至 5 億美元，導致淨訂單出貨比為 0.9。截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的期末積壓訂單約為 28 億美元，比前一年減少 2.1%。

We project that approximately $1.61 billion of backlog will convert to revenue in the next 12 months and backlog conversion in the first quarter was 19.2% of beginning backlog.

我們預計，未來 12 個月內約有 16.1 億美元的積壓訂單將轉化為收入，第一季的積壓訂單轉換率為期初積壓訂單的 19.2%。

With that, I will turn the call over to Kevin to review our financial performance in more detail and discuss our 2025 guidance. Kevin?

說完這些，我將把電話交給凱文，讓他更詳細地回顧我們的財務業績，並討論我們的 2025 年指導方針。凱文？

Thank you, Jesse, and good morning to everyone listening in. As Jesse mentioned, revenue was $558.6 million in the first quarter of 2025. This represented a year to year increase of 9.3%. EBITDA of $118.6 million, increased 2.6% compared to $115.7 million in the first quarter of 2024.

謝謝你，傑西，各位聽眾早安。正如傑西所提到的，2025 年第一季的收入為 5.586 億美元。這意味著同比增長了 9.3%。EBITDA 為 1.186 億美元，較 2024 年第一季的 1.157 億美元成長 2.6%。

EBITDA margin for the first quarter was 21.2% compared to 22.6% in the prior year period. EBITDA margin compared to the prior year period was impacted by employee-related costs and foreign exchange behind the weakening of the US dollar in the quarter.

第一季的 EBITDA 利潤率為 21.2%，而去年同期為 22.6%。與去年同期相比，EBITDA 利潤率受到本季員工相關成本和美元走弱所導致的外匯影響。

In the first quarter of 2025, net income of $114.6 million increased 11.7% compared to net income of $102.6 million in the prior year period.

2025 年第一季度，淨收入為 1.146 億美元，較去年同期的 1.026 億美元淨收入成長 11.7%。

Net income growth above EBITDA growth was primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate from option exercises in the quarter and higher interest income. Net income per diluted share for the quarter was $3.67 compared to $3.20 in the prior year period.

淨收入成長高於 EBITDA 成長，主要由於本季選擇權行使帶來的較低有效稅率和較高的利息收入。本季每股攤薄淨利潤為 3.67 美元，去年同期為 3.20 美元。

Regarding customer concentration, our top 5 and top 10 customers represented roughly 22% and 32% respectively of our first quarter 2025 revenue. In the first quarter, we generated $125.8 million in cash flow from operating activities, and our net day sales outstanding was negative 67.8 days.

關於客戶集中度，我們的前 5 名和前 10 名客戶分別占我們 2025 年第一季營收的約 22% 和 32%。第一季度，我們從營運活動中產生了1.258億美元的現金流，而我們的淨未償銷售天數為負67.8天。

As of March 31, 2025, we had $441.4 million in cash. During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 1.19 million shares for $389.8 million. At the end of the quarter, we had $344.8 million remaining under our share purchase authorization program.

截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日，我們擁有 4.414 億美元現金。第一季度，我們以 3.898 億美元回購了約 119 萬股。截至本季末，我們的股票購買授權計畫剩餘資金為 3.448 億美元。

Moving now to our updated guidance for 2025. Full year 2025 total revenue is now expected in the range of $2.14 billion to $2.24 billion, representing growth of 1.5% to 6.2% over 2024 total revenue of $2.11 billion. Our 2025 EBITDA is expected in the range of $462 million to $492 million, representing a decline of 3.8% to growth of 2.5% compared to EBITDA of $480.2 million in 2024.

現在轉向我們針對 2025 年的最新指導。預計 2025 年全年總收入將在 21.4 億美元至 22.4 億美元之間，比 2024 年 21.1 億美元的總收入增長 1.5% 至 6.2%。我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 將在 4.62 億美元至 4.92 億美元之間，與 2024 年 EBITDA 4.802 億美元相比下降 3.8% 至成長 2.5%。

We forecast 2025 net income in the range of $378 million to $402 million. This guidance assumes a full year 2025 effective tax rate of 15.5% to 16.5%. Interest income of $15.8 million and 30.8 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for 2025.

我們預測 2025 年淨收入將在 3.78 億美元至 4.02 億美元之間。該指引假設 2025 年全年有效稅率為 15.5% 至 16.5%。2025 年利息收入為 1,580 萬美元，稀釋加權平均流通股數為 3,080 萬股。

There are no additional share purchases reflected in our guidance. Earnings per diluted share is now expected to be in the range of $12.26 to $13.04. Guidance is based on foreign exchange rates as of March 31, 2025.

我們的指導中沒有反映額外的股票購買。目前預計每股攤薄收益將在 12.26 美元至 13.04 美元之間。此指引是根據截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日的外匯匯率。

With that, I will turn the call back over to the operator so we can take your questions.

說完這些，我會將電話轉回給接線生，以便我們回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

David Windley, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的戴維溫德利 (David Windley)。

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Good morning. The -- August, your comment -- maybe August and Jesse, your comments around RFPs and quality of RFPs, I wanted to explore we've -- in some of our discussions, been told that biotech’s and kind of your target client audience are inviting more CROs into bid situations and in some cases, taking a larger number of CROs maybe by one or two, but a larger number of CROs forward into bid defense.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。早安.——August，您的評論——也許 August 和 Jesse，您對 RFP 和 RFP 品質的評論，我想探討一下——在我們的一些討論中，我們被告知生物技術和您的目標客戶群體正在邀請更多的 CRO 參與投標情況，在某些情況下，可能會邀請更多的 CRO 參與投標投標，可能只邀請一兩個，但會邀請更多防禦的 CRO 參與投標。

And so -- and maybe implied fishing for lower prices. I wanted to get you to flesh out, if you would, your quality comments. Are you seeing these kinds of trends? Are you seeing more price competition? And is that a little bit of what you mean when you say the quality is a little more mixed? Thanks.

所以——也許暗示著追求更低的價格。如果可以的話，我希望您能夠充實您的高品質評論。您看到了這些趨勢嗎？您是否看到了更多的價格競爭？這和您說的品質有點參差不齊的意思一樣嗎？謝謝。

Yeah, Dave, that is true. Anytime there's a slowdown in the industry, there tends to be more price competition, more broader look at CROs. But a big factor is unfunded projects that they're looking toward funding and getting proposals so that they can bring that back to try to make a story for moving a product forward rather than having some assets to move the product forward to start with.

是的，戴夫，確實如此。每當產業出現放緩跡象時，價格競爭就會更加激烈，對 CRO 的關注度也會更加廣泛。但一個重要因素是他們正在尋求資助和獲得提案的未獲資助的項目，以便他們可以將其帶回來嘗試創造一個推動產品前進的故事，而不是擁有一些資產來推動產品前進。

But yeah, you do tend to get more churn and a larger number of CROs participating in particular bids. So RFP numbers can go up, but that just means they've doubled the number of average number of CROs are inviting to each RFP and so everyone sees an increase in RFPs.

但是的，你確實傾向於獲得更多的流失和更多的 CRO 參與特定的競標。因此，RFP 數量可能會上升，但這只意味著他們邀請每個 RFP 的 CRO 平均數量增加了一倍，因此每個人都會看到 RFP 數量的增加。

So yeah, I do think that's a good part of it. But the more concerning issue for me is the likelihood of funding and the type of assets and where they are in their funding cycle and how far out the project is, at what stage it is that leads to a worsening in quality of the RFPs.

是的，我確實認為這是其中很好的部分。但對我來說更令人擔憂的問題是融資的可能性和資產的類型、它們在融資週期中的位置、專案進展到什麼程度、處於什麼階段，這些都會導致 RFP 品質下降。

Thanks for that. And August, your comments about still depending on environment, I didn't get your exact words, but kind of depending on environment, I still believe you have the potential to track to a 1.15 book-to-bill in the second half.

謝謝。奧古斯特，您說的仍然取決於環境，我沒有聽懂您的確切說法，但某種程度上取決於環境，我仍然相信您有潛力在下半年實現 1.15 的訂單出貨比。

I noted your comments about backlog cancellations, but pre-backlog cancellations were worse. I guess I would love for you to flesh out how -- what would be required, I guess, to achieve that because in, say, middle of last year when you talked about that intensification of pre-backlog cancellations, that was essentially what seem to cement your view that you wouldn't be able to get to a higher book-to-bill, say, later last year and maybe early this year. How is that different now?

我注意到您關於積壓取消的評論，但之前的積壓取消情況更糟。我想我希望您能詳細說明如何——我想，需要做什麼才能實現這一目標，因為在去年年中，當您談到積壓訂單取消的加劇時，這基本上鞏固了您的觀點，即您無法在去年晚些時候或今年年初實現更高的訂單出貨比。現在有什麼不同嗎？

Sure. Yeah, the pipeline cancellations, the pre-backlog cancellations, particularly have narrowed our options quite a bit and limited possible booking levels in the next few quarters. But you realize we have a pretty good visibility in the opportunities that could -- most of the opportunities that could convert into backlog in the next few quarters. They're kind of already known to us has opportunities at whatever stage.

當然。是的，管道取消、預先積壓的取消尤其縮小了我們的選擇範圍，並限制了未來幾季可能的預訂水準。但您意識到，我們對可能的機會有相當好的了解——大多數機會都可能在未來幾季轉化為積壓。我們已經知道他們無論處於什麼階段都有機會。

And they are sufficient to get us there if cancellations come back to a nice reasonable range, and we don't see this across the pipeline kind of elevated level. And things continue to move forward. And we've seen a slowing in decisions on RFPs. And once in a while, you also have delays in project starts due to funding or for other reasons.

如果取消量回到一個合理的範圍內，這些就足以讓我們實現這一目標，而且我們在整個管道中沒有看到這種升高的水平。事情還在繼續向前發展。我們發現 RFP 的決策速度有所放緩。有時，由於資金或其他原因，專案啟動也會延遲。

And we need that -- we need the projects to move into operational execution and recognition and backlog, and we need to avoid large cancellations. So our path there has narrowed quite a bit, but we still see the --it's not just a hypothetical for of -- I'm saying it's still possible, but it's highly improbable. We still have a reasonable path to get there if cancellations come back quite a bit.

我們需要這樣做——我們需要將專案轉入營運執行、認可和積壓階段，我們需要避免大規模取消。因此，我們的路徑已經縮小了不少，但我們仍然看到——這不僅僅是一個假設——我是說這仍然有可能，但可能性極小。如果取消的次數增加很多，我們仍然有合理的途徑來實現這一目標。

Thank you for that. I'll leave it at that. Thank you.

謝謝你。我就不多說了。謝謝。

Max Smock, William Blair.

馬克斯史莫克、威廉布萊爾。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. August, you mentioned I think you can get back to 1.15 book-to-bill in the back half of the year, if you get that improved climate. I guess my question would be, what do you think bookings look like if you don't get that improved climate? And then in that scenario where we assume even a stable environment from here, how much downside is there to the top line this year? And then what would that imply for top line growth in 2026? Thank you.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。奧古斯特，您提到，如果情況好轉，我認為下半年訂單出貨比可以回到 1.15。我想我的問題是，如果沒有改善氣候，您認為預訂情況會如何？那麼，在這種情況下，即使我們假設現在的環境是穩定的，今年的收入還會有多少下滑空間呢？那麼這對 2026 年的營收成長意味著什麼？謝謝。

How much risk is it a top line this year? You mean bookings? Or are you talking about revenue -- second half?

今年的營收風險有多大？你是指預訂嗎？還是您說的是下半年的收入？

Well I guess more -- yeah, more impact on revenue in the second half. I guess three parts, right? If the environment is stable from here? What does book-to-bill look like in the back half of the year? How much downside is there to how you're thinking about revenue in the back half and the end of your guidance for this year? And then what does that all imply for top line growth in 2026?

嗯，我想會更多——是的，對下半年的收入影響更大。我猜是三個部分，對嗎？如果從這裡開始環境就穩定了？今年下半年的訂單出貨比情況如何？您認為下半年的收入以及今年底的預期收入有多少下行空間？那麼，這一切對於 2026 年的營收成長意味著什麼？

Yeah. Well, that's kind of a difficult hypothetical, what kind of downside is there? That depends on how bad the environment gets if cancellations continue kind of the way they have of recent past and particularly this past quarter and some of the quarters last year. We're going to be in the same kind of place we've been, somewhere around one, I guess. I think that's kind of the downside. But we still have opportunities to, again, paths toward getting to 1.15.

是的。嗯，這是一個有點困難的假設，有什麼樣的不利之處？這取決於如果取消情況繼續像最近一段時間那樣發生，特別是上個季度和去年某些季度的情況，環境會變得多麼糟糕。我想，我們將會處於和以前相同的境地，大約在 1 左右。我認為這是一種缺點。但我們仍有機會再次實現 1.15 的目標。

Revenue in the second half is pretty much locked in, that's kind of a different issue because that's a different cancellation. It would be a more later-stage cancellation to knock our revenue off. Now that's possible. And of course, we continue to have clients with funding difficulties that we have to stop work on and -- or cancel the project because of work. So there's still some risk to second half revenue, but most of that is pretty locked in.

下半年的收入基本上已經確定，這是一個不同的問題，因為這是一個不同的取消。這將是後期的取消，從而影響我們的收入。現在這是可能的。當然，我們仍然會遇到一些客戶面臨資金困難，導致我們不得不停止工作，或因為工作而取消專案。因此，下半年的收入仍存在一些風險，但大部分風險已經相當確定。

And I really don't have a model for '26. So I can't go there yet. And the environment is just too early to really talk about 2026 revenue impact of poor bookings through this year.

我確實沒有 26 年的模型。所以我還不能去那裡。現在談論今年預訂量不佳對 2026 年收入的影響還為時過早。

Yeah. Understood. And then maybe frame me as the downside scenario wasn't very -- I was thinking more, but if things stay the same, stay the way they are today, and you don't get that improved climate. And just to confirm, if that is the case and we're talking book-to-bill kind of around 1.0 in the back half of the year versus if you do get that improvement, do you still think it can get to 1.15?

是的。明白了。然後也許我認為不利的情況並不是很嚴重——我考慮得更多，但如果事情保持不變，保持現在的狀態，那麼氣候就不會得到改善。只是為了確認一下，如果情況確實如此，並且我們談論的是今年下半年的訂單出貨比在 1.0 左右，那麼如果確實取得了這一改善，您是否仍然認為它可以達到 1.15？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. That's helpful. Thank you. And then maybe as a follow-up, there's been a lot of headwinds recently around -- just around the FDA and was one over the weekend from an interview where they were saying going to require -- clinical trials in certain areas going forward if the mechanism of action makes sense and if there's an unmet need.

好的。這很有幫助。謝謝。然後也許作為後續行動，最近圍繞 FDA 出現了很多阻力，其中一個阻力來自周末的一次採訪，他們說如果作用機制合理並且存在未滿足的需求，他們將要求在某些領域進行臨床試驗。

Do you have any sense -- can you provide us any detail around what your rare disease exposure looks like? And just how you're thinking about this kind of discussion from the FDA and the talk about doing less trials in some of these indications moving forward. Is that a long-term structural headwind for Medpace and for the CRO industry as a whole?

您有什麼想法嗎—您能否向我們提供有關您接觸罕見疾病的詳細資訊？您如何看待 FDA 的此類討論以及關於在未來減少某些適應症的試驗的討論。這對 Medpace 和整個 CRO 行業來說是一個長期的結構性阻力嗎？

I don't know. That's pretty hypothetical, you make drugs easier to develop and you tend to get more development. So certainly, if you took away the need for significant trials in an area you're going to -- that does have an impact. But I think it's very hypothetical. And I -- rare disease, and it kind of depends on how you define it, is certainly a meaningful part of our business.

我不知道。這是相當假設性的，你讓藥物更容易開發，你往往會獲得更多的發展。因此，如果你消除了在某個領域進行重大試驗的需要，那肯定會產生影響。但我認為這是非常假設的。我認為罕見疾病，這取決於你如何定義它，無疑是我們業務中有意義的一部分。

But I really don't make much of -- I think it's great to have the trial requirements be proportional to the serious and needs of society for drugs. And you got -- you have the right balance. We want effective drugs, but we want them develop at a reasonable cost. And that's just kind of the trade-offs. I don't really see a risk to our industry from that.

但我真的不太在意——我認為審判要求與社會對毒品的嚴重性和需求成正比是件好事。而你已經獲得了正確的平衡。我們想要有效的藥物，但我們希望以合理的成本開發它們。這只是一種權衡而已。我確實不認為這會對我們的行業帶來風險。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Ann Hynes, Mizuho.

安‧海因斯 (Ann Hynes)，瑞穗。

Hi, good morning. Maybe talk about cancellations a little bit more. Can you remind us what your cancellation rate, I don't think you said what it was this quarter versus was last quarter and what it is versus historical? And maybe just the type of trials that you're seeing canceled? Is it widespread? Is it specific customers? Any incremental detail on cancellations that would be very helpful. Thanks.

嗨，早安。也許可以多談談取消的事情。您能否提醒我們您的取消率是多少，我認為您沒有說本季與上一季相比如何，以及與歷史相比如何？也許只是您所看到的被取消的試驗類型？它普遍嗎？是特定客戶嗎？有關取消的任何增量細節都將非常有幫助。謝謝。

Sure. Yeah. You didn't hear it because we didn't say it because we don't disclose it. So we just don't -- we don't provide cancellation rate. We do talk about broad trends in magnitude, but we don't give the rates.

當然。是的。您沒有聽到，因為我們沒有說，因為我們沒有透露。所以我們不提供取消率。我們確實談論了幅度上的總體趨勢，但我們沒有給出比率。

And the cancellations have been pretty broad, but largely centered around funding issues. And you can call it reprioritization and other things, and that's certainly part of it. And there are certainly drugs that have had significant safety signals or other failures of trials that have impacted the development of the program.

取消的計劃範圍相當廣泛，但主要集中在資金問題上。你可以稱之為重新排序和其他事情，這當然是其中的一部分。當然，有些藥物已經出現了明顯的安全訊號或其他試驗失敗，從而影響了該計畫的發展。

But funding has been at least a part of a good portion of the cancellations. But I can't sort of add a different therapeutic area or anything like that. It's kind of across the board.

但資金至少是造成很大一部分取消的原因之一。但我無法添加不同的治療領域或類似的東西。這是全面的。

Great. And then my next question is just on share repurchase. Obviously, your stock is down year-to-date. It's going to be down a little bit more today. And there's no incremental share repurchase in your guidance, I guess, what would trigger Medpace to get more aggressive on share repurchases?

偉大的。我的下一個問題是關於股票回購。顯然，今年迄今為止你的股票一直在下跌。今天還會下降一點。我想，您的指導中沒有增量股票回購，什麼會促使 Medpace 更積極地進行股票回購？

Yeah. I mean, Ann, this is Kevin. We'll continue to take an opportunistic approach as we have in the last couple of quarters. And so we'll continue to look for those opportunities to do that. And we'll kind of see how we're able to execute. As you saw, we did increase the Board authorization on share repurchases. And so we'll look for opportunities to continue to do that.

是的。我的意思是，安，這是凱文。我們將繼續採取機會主義的做法，就像過去幾個季度一樣。因此，我們將繼續尋找機會來實現這一目標。我們將看看我們能夠如何執行。正如您所看到的，我們確實增加了董事會對股票回購的授權。因此，我們會尋找機會繼續這樣做。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan Leonard, UBS.

瑞銀的丹·倫納德（Dan Leonard）。

Thank you. I have a question on that small biopharma exposure that you report at 80% of your revenue. Do you have any sense for how much of that is negative enterprise value of biotech? And are you concerned at all that some of these biotech’s that have negative enterprise value might just start to close up shop and return the cash?

謝謝。我對您報告的佔您收入 80% 的小型生物製藥業務有一個疑問。您是否知道其中有多少是生技的負企業價值？您是否擔心一些企業價值為負的生技公司可能會開始關門大吉並退回現金？

Jesse, do you have any proportions on that. We continue to see companies fail. I don't know how many -- if the drugs failed and they're not doing anything and they close up shop, I guess, who cares, they don't have a viable drug to go forward with. But certainly, funding difficulties is a bigger issue than drug failures and closing up shop at the current time. But Jesse, do you have any kind of metrics --

傑西，你對此有什麼看法嗎？我們不斷看到公司失敗。我不知道有多少——如果藥物失敗了，他們沒有任何效果，他們就關門大吉了，我想，誰在乎呢，因為他們沒有可行的藥物可以繼續推進。但毫無疑問，目前資金困難是一個比藥物失敗和倒閉更大的問題。但是傑西，你有什麼指標嗎--

Yeah, I don't have anything on negative EV quantification the things we do quantify will look at what percentage is public versus privately funded companies and kind of what percentage is partnered with large pharma, but we don't -- we're not tracking and reporting EV values.

是的，我對負面 EV 量化一無所知，我們量化的內容是查看上市公司與私人資助公司的比例，以及與大型製藥公司合作的比例，但我們不會 - 我們沒有追蹤和報告 EV 值。

Got it. It doesn't sound like there's a high level of concern of yours independent from the broader funding environment anyway. Is that fair?

知道了。無論如何，聽起來您似乎並沒有對更廣泛的融資環境表現出高度的擔憂。這樣公平嗎？

Yeah. I think companies having too much money and haven't returned it to investors is not a problem. (technical difficulty) It's those that don't have money.

是的。我認為公司擁有太多資金並且尚未返還給投資者並不是問題。（技術難度）就是那些沒有錢的人。

Understood. And then my follow-up question, which is coming up a lot in the investment community, August, do you have any sense on whether all the turnover at the FDA is impacting your client discussions at all and making them incrementally behave differently or more worried about the future?

明白了。然後我的後續問題是投資界經常出現的，奧古斯特，您是否知道 FDA 的所有人員流動是否影響了您與客戶的討論，並導致他們逐漸改變行為或對未來更加擔憂？

I think it makes everybody worried about the future. I'm not convinced there's any kind of evidence that there's been delays or problems to date or changing behavior. But we'll have to see. I think it's too early.

我認為這讓每個人都對未來感到擔憂。我並不確信有任何證據表明迄今為止存在延誤或問題或行為改變。但我們還需要拭目以待。我認為現在還太早。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Eric Coldwell, Baird.

埃里克·科德威爾，貝爾德。

Thanks very much. I wanted to hit on the other side of growth. You've got bookings. You also have backlog burn, backlog burn was up pretty nicely year over year. It looks like the forecast must incorporate higher levels of backlog burn this year.

非常感謝。我想觸及成長的另一面。您已收到預訂。您還擁有積壓訂單燃燒量，積壓訂單燃燒量逐年大幅增加。看起來，今年的預測必須考慮到更高水準的積壓訂單消耗。

I'm curious how much of that is a function of the lower backlog growth and the lower bookings, which naturally changes the nominator denominator equation, but also were there unusual timing shifts in the burn rate of your backlog or project-specific items this quarter, are there execution improvements that you're showing and maybe think are sustainable? I would just like to get a better sense on the magnitude of this backlog burn reacceleration, how sustainable it is?

我很好奇，這在多大程度上是由於積壓訂單增長較低和預訂量較低造成的，這自然會改變提名分母方程，但本季度積壓訂單或項目特定項目的消耗率是否也出現了異常的時間變化，您是否展示了執行方面的改進，並認為這些改進是可持續的？我只是想更了解積壓訂單加速的程度以及它的可持續性？

Yeah, Eric, this is Kevin. I mean it's more a function of all an acceleration in revenue in the quarter. So programs were progressing well, but you also saw an increase in the reimbursable cost activity, right, that was a bit higher than what we had expected. So that's going to influence it as well. And then it's the lower bookings that August talked about.

是的，艾瑞克，這是凱文。我的意思是，這更多的是本季營收加速成長的結果。因此，專案進展順利，但您也看到可報銷成本活動有所增加，對，這比我們預期的要高一些。所以這也會對其產生影響。然後就是 August 提到的預訂數量下降的問題。

And his prepared remarks, it is coming in a bit soft. So it's not that we're changing execution or anything associated with that. I mean programs continue to progress very nicely. It's more a reflection of the numerator and the denominator.

而他準備好的講話，聽起來有點軟弱。因此，我們並不是想要改變執行方式或與之相關的任何事情。我的意思是專案繼續進展順利。它更多地反映了分子和分母。

Okay. And then, Kevin, last quarter on the call, mid-February, you had -- in response to one of my questions, you had suggested that you thought revenue would be more modest in the first quarter and then linearly progressing through the year. We got quite the opposite with over 9% revenue growth, but the rest of your targeted growth rates are lower.

好的。然後，凱文，上個季度，也就是二月中旬的電話會議上，在回答我的一個問題時，您表示，您認為第一季的收入會比較溫和，然後全年會呈線性增長。我們得到的恰恰相反，收入成長超過 9%，但其餘目標成長率較低。

So what -- other than the near 10% growth in pass-throughs, what were the other dynamics in play? Or was -- were you really thinking pass-throughs were going to be down? And instead, they grew 10%, so maybe we didn't know what to model, but in your mind, that was the big delta here. I'm just -- told us or revenue and it was the opposite. It was six weeks left in the quarter is what we heard. So I'm just trying to figure out the change.

那麼——除了直通率成長近 10% 之外，還有哪些動態在發揮作用？或者—您真的認為傳遞率會下降嗎？但事實卻相反，它們增長了 10%，所以也許我們不知道該如何建模，但在你看來，這就是這裡的巨大增量。我只是 - 告訴我們收入，但事實恰恰相反。我們聽說本季還剩六週。所以我只是想弄清楚變化。

Yeah. I think the bigger influence was the reimbursable cost activity. Now having said that, programs progress probably a bit better than I had anticipated in the first quarter as well. But I think the bigger influence was the reimbursable.

是的。我認為影響更大的是可報銷成本活動。話雖如此，第一季的專案進展可能比我預期的要好一些。但我認為影響更大的是可報銷。

And then my last question for this call. Just I saw a little bit of head count growth quarter over quarter, a little bit more year over year. But maybe a bit slower than I was originally anticipating probably because of the lower bookings. But what is your new outlook on turnover, hiring timing of hiring this year. I'm curious what your plans are at this point, what you'd like to do and what you think is actually doable in the environment.

這是我這通通話的最後一個問題。我只是看到員工人數比上一季有一點成長，比去年同期有一點成長。但可能比我原先預期的要慢一些，可能是因為預訂量較低。但是您對今年的營業額、招募時機有什麼新的看法？我很好奇您目前的計劃是什麼，您想做什麼以及您認為在這種環境下實際上什麼是可行的。

Yeah. Thanks, Eric. We did have a little bit of modest headcount growth in the first quarter. Turnover remains pretty good, and we're still targeting head count growth this year, likely around mid-single digit.

是的。謝謝，埃里克。第一季我們的員工人數確實略有成長。營業額仍然相當不錯，我們今年的目標仍然是員工人數成長，大概在個位數的中段左右。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Charles Rhyee, TD Cowen.

查爾斯·瑞伊（Charles Rhyee），考恩（Cowen）TD。

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. August, I just wanted to go back a little bit when you're talking about obviously the funding issues with clients. Are you seeing any clients because we've heard in some instances where companies have been committed have gotten funding, but then either their private equity or VC backer is kind of maybe pulled back on some of those commitments.

是的，感謝您提出這個問題。奧古斯特，當您談到客戶的資金問題時，我只是想稍微回顧一下。您是否見過任何客戶，因為我們聽說在某些情況下，公司已經承諾獲得資金，但他們的私募股權或創投支持者可能會撤回其中一些承諾。

And so maybe some of the funding data we've seen over the last year or so may not actually materialize. Just curious if that is some of the dynamics you're seeing in some of clients potentially having some funding issues?

因此，我們在過去一年左右看到的一些融資數據可能實際上並不會實現。我只是好奇，您是否看到一些客戶可能有資金問題？

Sure. Yeah, I definitely think that's part of it. Often, clients represent to us that they've got funding arranged. They have commitments, whatever, how strong is commitments are (technical difficulty) like VCs and others having to choose between the winners and losers in their portfolio. But it's where we are.

當然。是的，我確實認為這是其中的一部分。客戶經常向我們表示他們已經安排了資金。他們有承諾，無論如何，承諾有多強（技術難度）就像創投家和其他人必須在其投資組合中的贏家和輸家之間做出選擇一樣。但這就是我們的現狀。

Yeah. Okay. And then maybe just -- I know you're not disclosing sort of the cancellation rates, but can you give us a sense sort of maybe between pre-backlog cancellations and just cancellations out of backlog, sort of maybe the relative mix between the two?

是的。好的。然後也許只是——我知道您沒有透露取消率，但您能否讓我們了解一下積壓前的取消率和積壓取消率之間的相對比例，以及兩者之間的相對比例？

And as you kind of -- I know you guys said you kind of were looking at your pre-backlog kind of kind of expectations for the course of the year? Has that -- I know you said it was higher, but was it really outside the realm that you expected? Or was it just kind of at the upper bound of what you kind of thought would happen?

正如你們所說──我知道你們說過，你們正在考慮今年的積壓工作之前的預期？有嗎——我知道您說過它更高，但它真的超出了您預期的範圍嗎？或者這只是您認為會發生的情況的上限？

Yeah. I think I'd classify our backlog cancellations kind of in that range, but just outside of the range kind of but -- so pre-backlog cancellations were significantly worse and very high. So overall, it was a pretty high rate of pipeline cancellations.

是的。我想我會將我們的積壓取消量歸類到這個範圍內，但又超出了這個範圍——所以之前的積壓取消量明顯更嚴重，而且非常高。整體而言，管道取消率相當高。

Okay. Thanks. And Jesse, maybe just quickly, you talked about headcount. Would you say you're still on track for a mid to high single-digit growth? Or is that really just now dependent on what we see in terms of the -- in the environment over the next couple of months?

好的。謝謝。傑西，也許你只是簡單地談了一下員工人數。您是否認為仍有望實現中高個位數的成長？或者這實際上僅僅取決於我們所看到的未來​​幾個月的環境狀況？

Yeah. I would say, at this moment, we're on track for mid-single-digit growth, but it will depend on how the environment unfolds. Things pick up, will accelerate more aggressive hiring.

是的。我想說，目前我們正處於中等個位數成長的軌道上，但這將取決於環境如何發展。情況好轉將加速更積極的招募。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Michael Cherny, Leerink Partners.

Michael Cherny，Leerink Partners。

Yeah, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Maybe just to come at the cancellations question another way, both on the existing backlog and the pre-backlog, is there anything you can tell us about cadence over the course of the quarter? Clearly, we can't -- not knowing -- you can't control the dynamics going on at play across the changeover in HHS, but did you see any elevated activity maybe over the course into March, given the uncertainty that's been created from the moving pieces across FDA?

是的，早上好，感謝您回答這個問題。也許只是從另一個角度來回答取消的問題，無論是現有的積壓還是之前的積壓，您能否告訴我們有關本季度節奏的任何信息？顯然，我們無法——不知道——你無法控制衛生與公眾服務部 (HHS) 換屆過程中發生的動態，但考慮到 FDA 內部變動所造成的不確定性，你是否看到 3 月份的活動有所增加？

Yeah. I'm not sure it had anything to do with movements of the FDA. And I mean, I don't have the cadence in terms of month-to-month in front of me, but it didn't strike me as all back-end or front-end loaded. It was kind of across the quarter.

是的。我不確定這是否與 FDA 的動向有關。我的意思是，我面前沒有按月計算的節奏，但它並沒有給我留下所有後端或前端加載的印象。它有點跨越整個季度。

Okay. And then on the dynamics and the build back towards an improved book-to-bill, you talked about their conditions in place to get back to 1.15. Is there anything your clients are telling you in terms of how they feel about achieving those conditions? And what would be the comfort factors you're looking for in order to get back to those levels? Curious along those lines where -- what the feedback is from the channel specifically.

好的。然後，關於動態和重新建立改善的訂單出貨比，您談到了他們回到 1.15 的條件。您的客戶是否告訴您他們對實現這些條件有何感受？為了恢復到這些水平，您需要尋找哪些舒適因素？我很好奇，具體從哪個管道得到的回饋是什麼樣的。

Yeah. No, I have -- I don't think that's provided me any input. I don't think anybody knows.

是的。不，我認為——那沒有給我任何意見。我認為沒人知道。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Jailendra Singh, Truist.

Jailendra Singh，Truist。

Thank you and good morning and thanks for taking my questions. I just want to go back to revenue guidance raise for the year. You report this metric of amount of backlog expected to convert in the next 12 months. It has been around a little over $1.6 billion for the last few quarters.

謝謝，早安，謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想回顧今年的收入指導增加。您報告了預計在未來 12 個月內轉換的積壓量指標。過去幾個季度，該金額一直維持在 16 億美元左右。

Have you seen any cancellation in that bucket recently because it seems you are implying that even if booking trends and book-to-bill remain at the current levels, for the rest of the year, you still feel good about revenue outlook for the year. I'm wondering because it's -- you don't see much concern around that $1.6 billion amount of backlog conversion.

您最近是否看到過該類別中的任何取消情況，因為您似乎在暗示，即使預訂趨勢和訂單出貨比保持在當前水平，對於今年剩餘時間，您仍然對今年的收入前景感到樂觀。我感到疑惑是因為——你似乎沒有看到人們對 16 億美元積壓訂單轉換有太多擔憂。

Yeah, this is Kevin. I mean in terms of kind of reemphasizing what August said, we feel good about the 2025 guidance because we've got the programs in backlog and barring any acceleration in cancellations, we always have cancellations in that bucket, but as long as they stay relatively normal, we feel good about the revenue that's going to come out of that bucket. Certainly, revenue is -- or backlog has declined a little bit. And so that next 12 month figure has come down a little bit. But we feel good again about the guidance that we have out there on revenue.

是的，這是凱文。我的意思是，再次強調奧古斯特所說的話，我們對 2025 年的指導感到滿意，因為我們有積壓的項目，除非取消項目的速度加快，否則我們總會有取消的項目，但只要它們保持相對正常，我們就對從這個桶裡產生的收入感到滿意。當然，收入——或者積壓訂單有所下降。因此接下來 12 個月的數據會略有下降。但我們再次對目前的收入預期感到滿意。

Okay. And then my follow-up, I will go back to David's question around biotech CRO landscape getting more competitive. I mean, historically, your pitch to biotech companies has been giving them more personalized focus, more personalized services, if some of your peers are restructuring their approach and going after this market more aggressively, how are you guys responding to that? Are you guys making any changes to your pitch or your approach as you go after these clients?

好的。然後我的後續問題，我將回到 David 關於生物技術 CRO 領域競爭日益激烈的問題。我的意思是，從歷史上看，你們對生物技術公司的宣傳一直是給予他們更加個性化的關注、更加個性化的服務，如果你們的一些同行正在調整他們的方法並更積極地進軍這個市場，你們對此作何反應？在爭取這些客戶的過程中，你們對你們的宣傳或方法做了什麼改變嗎？

I don't think there's been a change in our competitive dynamics lately of any material. In fact, everybody tries to give the clients individual attention, and there's been no change.

我認為最近我們的競爭態勢沒有任何實質的變化。事實上，每個人都試圖給予客戶個人化的關注，但沒有任何改變。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Justin Bowers, DB.

賈斯汀·鮑爾斯，DB。

Hi, good morning everyone. Just a few follow-ups from what's been discussed. In terms of the programs progressing faster and the step up in 1Q revenue, is that -- Kevin, is that more internal or external factors? Meaning was it like execution on your end? Or is there a push from clients to maybe sort of get the data done faster? Just anything to call out the progression there?

大家早安。這只是對已討論內容的一些後續討論。就專案進展更快和第一季營收的成長而言，凱文，這是更多的內部因素還是外部因素？意思是這就像是你那邊的執行嗎？或者客戶是否有動力更快完成數據處理？有什麼可以表明那裡的進展嗎？

I mean I would say there's nothing unusual. It's just that the programs, the active programs that we have in backlog just continue to progress very nicely. It's not to say that we made any major internal changes. There's always pressure from sponsors to do things faster, and we certainly do what we can. But I would say there's no change internally as it relates to how we execute.

我的意思是，我認為這沒什麼不尋常的。只是我們積壓的專案、正在進行的專案繼續進展順利。這並不是說我們做出了任何重大的內在改變。贊助商總是會給我們壓力，要求我們加快速度，我們當然會盡力而為。但我想說，就我們的執行方式而言，內部沒有任何變化。

Okay. And then in terms of the cancellations, it sounds like most of that was concentrated or the elevation was around the pre-booking. But in terms of the in-flight cancellations, was that elevated as well? And is that -- what trends are you seeing there? Is it more around futility? Or is it also funding related?

好的。然後就取消而言，聽起來大部分都是集中的，或者說是預訂高峰。但就航班取消率而言，這數字是否也上升了呢？您在那裡看到了什麼趨勢？這是否更具有無用性？還是也與資金有關？

Yeah. I mean the in-flight backlog cancellations tend to be a bit more related to drug performance. But the funding has been a big part of even our backlog cancellations. So it's a lot of overlap.

是的。我的意思是，航班積壓取消往往與藥物性能有更大的關係。但即使我們取消了積壓訂單，資金也發揮了很大作用。因此有很多重疊之處。

Okay. And then just in terms of one of the earlier questions on pricing pressure. Medpace, at least compared to the bigger guys, has been pretty competitively priced. The pressure that you talked about, is that -- are you seeing that from your midsized peers? Or are you also seeing that coming from some of the larger competitors that may be encroaching on your market space?

好的。然後就之前關於價格壓力的一個問題而言。Medpace 的價格至少與大公司相比相當具有競爭力。您談到的壓力是——您是否從中型同行那裡看到了這一點？或者您是否也看到一些較大的競爭對手可能正在侵占您的市場空間？

It's both I mean we're seeing --

我的意思是我們看到--

(multiple speakers) clients. Yeah. Sorry, go ahead, Jesse.

（多位發言者）客戶。是的。抱歉，請繼續，傑西。

I'll say it's from both peers and larger midsize and larger competitors, but also the pricing is influenced by just scarcity of funds as well from the biotech perspective.

我想說的是，它既來自同行，也來自較大的中型和大型競爭對手，但從生物技術的角度來看，定價也受到資金稀缺的影響。

Got it. All right. Thank you. I will jump back in queue.

知道了。好的。謝謝。我會重新回到隊列中。

David Windley, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的戴維溫德利 (David Windley)。

Alright, thanks for taking my follow up. I have a few, but I'm only going to ask one bigger one, which is around sites and the pass-through elements. So one of the things that we've heard anecdotally a fair amount is that the NIH grant funding, let's call it debate, freeze, whatever, does have academic medical centers nervous about their situations.

好的，感謝您接受我的跟進。我有幾個問題，但我只想問一個較大的問題，即有關網站和傳遞元素的問題。因此，我們經常聽到的傳聞之一是，NIH 撥款，我們稱之為爭論、凍結，無論什麼，確實讓學術醫療中心對他們的處境感到緊張。

And while those funds probably fund investigator-driven studies and not the type that you would directly run, but those funds probably also fund research infrastructure at these academic medical centers that could influence the throughput capabilities of the site that you might use in studies.

雖然這些資金可能資助研究者主導的研究，而不是您直接進行的研究類型，但這些資金也可能資助這些學術醫療中心的研究基礎設施，這可能會影響您在研究中使用的站點的吞吐能力。

So with that having been said, I'm wondering about general site access, recruitment rates, how much do you use academic medical centers. And to what extent are -- how should we think about the pass-through increase in your revenue is that inflation driven at the site? Is it just rebudgeting of kind of quantity of consumption? And how much of that pass-through inflation that we saw in the first quarter is also driving the revenue for the year? Thank you.

話雖如此，我想知道一般網站訪問情況、招聘率以及您使用學術醫療中心的頻率。以及在多大程度上——我們應該如何看待您的收入的轉嫁成長是由現場通貨膨脹推動的？這僅僅是對消費數量的重新預算嗎？我們在第一季看到的傳導通膨有多少也推動了全年的收入？謝謝。

Well, I think, David, the threats and concern around academic funding at these large university centers is not reflected in any things to date. I mean it's a theoretical issue for the future. I think to date, the increase in pass-throughs of investigator costs as portions of budgets related to a number of things, including complexity of the evaluations done at sites, but inflation and scarcity of patients.

嗯，大衛，我認為，這些大型大學中心對學術資金的威脅和擔憂迄今為止還沒有反映在任何事情上。我的意思是這是一個未來的理論問題。我認為到目前為止，研究人員成本作為預算的一部分的增加與許多因素有關，包括在現場進行的評估的複雜性，但通貨膨脹和患者稀缺。

And the pandemic, of course, had a huge impact on operations at centers and caused considerable cost increases and inflationary impact, you might say, at that site, but costs were driven up at sites and pass-through to trials.

當然，疫情對中心的運作產生了巨大的影響，並導致了該中心成本的大幅增加和通膨影響，但成本在中心被推高並轉嫁到了試驗上。

So that's been the driver we've seen to date. This shifting of possible overhead costs to -- on to sponsor-driven clinical trials, commercial clinical trials. Maybe that will happen, I don't know, but it's certainly not a factor in the current dynamic.

這就是我們迄今為止所看到的驅動因素。將可能的間接成本轉移到贊助商驅動的臨床試驗、商業臨床試驗。也許那會發生，我不知道，但它肯定不是當前動態的因素。

And on the revenue mix for the year, if we were to think about -- you raised by a little bit -- is all of that raise pass-through is more than the raise pass-through? How should we think about the pass-through influence on revenue versus your prior expectations?

關於今年的收入結構，如果我們考慮一下——你稍微提高了一點——那麼所有這些加薪的轉嫁是否比加薪的轉嫁還要多？與您先前的預期相比，我們應該如何看待對收入的傳導影響？

In the quarter, Dave?

在本季度，戴夫？

I mean I'm really thinking about the guidance for the year.

我的意思是我真的在考慮今年的指導。

Yeah. I mean, certainly, it was elevated in the quarter, but we kind of see that as being more timing related. We continue to feel that the cost -- the pass-through prefund reimbursable cost of the (inaudible) will be at similar levels to what we saw in the back half of '24, but as you know, it bounces around from quarter-to-quarter, but the expectation for the year is that it's somewhere -- will be similar to what we saw in the back half of '24.

是的。我的意思是，當然，它在本季度有所上升，但我們認為這更多地與時間有關。我們仍然認為，成本 - 轉嫁預付資金可報銷成本（聽不清楚）將與我們在 24 年下半年看到的水平相似，但正如你所知，它在每個季度之間都會波動，但預計今年它會在某個地方 - 將與我們在 24 年下半年看到的水平相似。

Yeah. The question is the jump in our revenue. Is that in anticipation of jump in pass-through or the direct fees?

是的。問題是我們的收入大幅增加。這是預期轉嫁費用或直接費用將大幅增加嗎？

Yeah. And Dave, as I said before, we were not expecting pass-throughs to be this high in the quarter. So a big part of the revenue increase that we saw this quarter was influenced by the reimbursable activity.

是的。戴夫，正如我之前所說，我們並沒有預料到本季的傳遞率會這麼高。因此，我們本季看到的收入成長很大一部分受到了可報銷活動的影響。

Yeah. Thank you for that.

是的。謝謝你。

I show no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Lauren for closing remarks.

我目前沒有其他問題。現在我想請勞倫作最後發言。

Thank you all for joining us for today's call and for your interest in Medpace. We look forward to speaking with you again on our second quarter of 2025 earnings call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議以及對 Medpace 的關注。我們期待在 2025 年第二季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。