Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Medpace fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 Medpace 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，此通話正在被錄音。

And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Lauren Morris, Medpace Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在，我想介紹今天電話會議的主持人，Medpace 投資者關係總監 Lauren Morris。你可以開始了。

Good morning, and thank you for joining Medpace's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings conference call. Also on the call today is our CEO, August Troendle; our President, Jesse Geiger; and our CFO, Kevin Brady.

早安，感謝您參加 Medpace 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。參加今天電話會議的還有我們的執行長 August Troendle；我們的總裁 Jesse Geiger；以及我們的財務長 Kevin Brady。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks and responses to your questions during this teleconference may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve inherent assumptions with known and unknown risks and uncertainties, as well as other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，我們在本次電話會議中的評論和對您的問題的回答可能包括《1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明涉及固有假設，具有已知和未知的風險和不確定性，以及可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期有重大差異的其他重要因素。

These factors are discussed in our Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC. Please note that we assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements even if estimates change. Accordingly, you should not rely on any of today's forward-looking statements as representing our views as of any date after today.

這些因素在我們的 10-K 表格和向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中進行了討論。請注意，即使估計發生變化，我們也不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。因此，您不應依賴今天的任何前瞻性陳述來認為其代表了我們在今天之後任何日期的觀點。

During this call, we will also be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures. These non-GAAP measures are not superior to, or a replacement for, the comparable GAAP measures, but we believe these measures help investors gain a more complete understanding of results. A reconciliation of such non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available in the earnings press release and earnings call presentation slides provided in connection with today's call. The slides are available in the Investor Relations section of our website at investor.medpace.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們也會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。這些非 GAAP 指標並不優於或取代可比較的 GAAP 指標，但我們相信這些指標有助於投資者更全面地了解結果。這些非 GAAP 財務指標與最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標的對帳表可在今天的電話會議中提供的收益新聞稿和收益電話會議簡報幻燈片中找到。您可在我們網站 investor.medpace.com 的投資者關係部分找到這些投影片。

With that, I would now like to turn the call over to August Troendle.

說完這些，我現在想將發言權轉給奧古斯特·特倫德爾 (August Troendle)。

Thank you, Lauren. Good day. Backlog cancellations in Q4 were within our normal range. Our book-to-bill ratio was 0.99, influenced by prior pipeline cancellations, as well as the delay of some projects previously expected to enter backlog. RFPs were down slightly in Q4 compared to Q3, as the overall business environment weakened somewhat, but remained up relative to Q4 2023.

謝謝你，勞倫。再會。第四季的積壓訂單取消量在我們的正常範圍內。我們的訂單出貨比為0.99，受到先前渠道取消的項目以及一些先前預計積壓的項目的延遲的影響。由於整體商業環境有所減弱，第四季的 RFP 數量與第三季相比略有下降，但相對於 2023 年第四季而言仍保持上升趨勢。

For the 2024 calendar year, backlog increased 3%. However, total awards and outstanding unperformed work, considering both backlog and pre-backlog awards, was down slightly. This reflects the high level of cancellations we experienced in 2024. All this provides a challenging backdrop to growth in 2025. Assuming cancellations remain in our historical range and the business environment does not continue to deteriorate, we remain hopeful that we can achieve growth in bookings with a book-to-bill ratio above 1.15 in the second half of the year. Revenue growth for 2025 is expected to be in the low-single digits.

就 2024 日曆年而言，積壓訂單增加了 3%。然而，考慮到積壓和前積壓獎項，總獎項和未完成的工作略有下降。這反映了我們在 2024 年經歷的高取消率。所有這些都為2025年的成長提供了充滿挑戰的背景。假設取消訂單量保持在歷史範圍內，且商業環境不會繼續惡化，我們仍然希望在今年下半年實現訂單量增長，訂單出貨比超過 1.15。預計 2025 年的收入成長率將達到個位數。

I will now turn things over to Jesse for comments on Q4.

現在我將把問題交給 Jesse，請他評論一下第四季的情況。

Thank you, August. And good morning, everyone. Our revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $536.6 million, which represents a year-over-year increase of 7.7%, and full-year 2024 revenue was $2.11 billion, an 11.8% increase from 2023. Net new business awards entering backlog in the fourth quarter decreased 13.8% from the prior year to $529.7 million, resulting in a .99 net book-to-bill.

謝謝你，奧古斯特。大家早安。我們 2024 年第四季的營收為 5.366 億美元，年增 7.7%，2024 年全年營收為 21.1 億美元，比 2023 年成長 11.8%。第四季進入積壓訂單的淨新業務獎勵較上年同期下降 13.8% 至 5.297 億美元，導致淨訂單出貨比為 0.99。

For the full year 2024, net new business awards were $2.23 billion, a decrease of 5.4%. And ending backlog as of December 31, 2024, was approximately $2.9 billion, an increase of 3.2% from the prior year. We project that approximately $1.63 billion of backlog will convert to revenue in the next 12 months, and backlog conversion in the fourth quarter was 18.3% of beginning backlog.

2024年全年淨新業務獎勵為22.3億美元，下降5.4%。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的期末積壓訂單約為 29 億美元，比上年增加 3.2%。我們預計，未來 12 個月內，約有 16.3 億美元的積壓訂單將轉化為收入，第四季度的積壓訂單轉換率為期初積壓訂單的 18.3%。

Now with that, I will turn the call over to Kevin to review our financial performance in more detail and discuss our 2025 guidance. Kevin?

現在，我將把電話交給凱文，讓他更詳細地回顧我們的財務表現並討論我們的 2025 年指導。凱文？

Thank you, Jesse, and good morning to everyone listening in. As Jesse mentioned, revenue was $536.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. This represented a year-over-year increase of 7.7%. Full-year 2024 revenue was $2.11 billion and increased 11.8% in 2023. EBITDA of $133.5 million increased 39.3% compared to $95.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

謝謝你，傑西，各位聽眾早安。正如傑西所說，2024 年第四季的收入為 5.366 億美元。這比去年同期增長了 7.7%。2024 年全年營收為 21.1 億美元，2023 年成長 11.8%。EBITDA 為 1.335 億美元，較 2023 年第四季的 9,580 萬美元成長 39.3%。

Full-year EBITDA was $480.2 million and increased 32.5% from the comparable prior-year period. EBITDA margin in the fourth quarter was 24.9% compared to 19.2% in the prior-year period. Full-year EBITDA margin was 22.8% compared to 19.2% in 2023. EBITDA margin for the quarter and for the full year were favorably impacted by reimbursable costs, which decreased by 400 basis points and 180 basis points, respectively, from the comparable prior-year periods.

全年 EBITDA 為 4.802 億美元，較去年同期成長 32.5%。第四季 EBITDA 利潤率為 24.9%，去年同期為 19.2%。全年 EBITDA 利潤率為 22.8%，而 2023 年為 19.2%。本季和全年的 EBITDA 利潤率受到可報銷成本的正面影響，與去年同期相比分別下降了 400 個基點和 180 個基點。

EBITDA margin also benefited from direct service activities and productivity on slower headcount growth. The fourth quarter saw additional benefit from foreign exchange behind the strengthening of the US dollar in the quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2024, net income of $117 million increased 49.5% compared to net income of $78.3 million in the prior-year period. For the full year 2024, net income was $404.4 million compared to $282.8 million in 2023, which represents a 43% increase.

EBITDA 利潤率也受益於直接服務活動和員工人數成長放緩導致的生產效率提高。第四季度，由於美元走強，外匯也帶來額外收益。2024 年第四季度，淨收入為 1.17 億美元，較去年同期的淨收入 7,830 萬美元成長 49.5%。2024 年全年淨收入為 4.044 億美元，而 2023 年為 2.828 億美元，成長 43%。

Net income growth ahead of EBITDA growth was driven by interest income and a lower effective tax rate. Net income per diluted share for the quarter was $3.67 compared to $2.46 in the prior-year period. For the full-year 2024, net income per diluted share was $12.63 compared to net income per diluted share of $8.88 in 2023.

淨收入成長超過 EBITDA 成長，主要得益於利息收入和較低的有效稅率。本季每股攤薄淨利潤為 3.67 美元，去年同期為 2.46 美元。2024 年全年每股攤薄淨利潤為 12.63 美元，而 2023 年每股攤薄淨利潤為 8.88 美元。

Regarding customer concentration, our top five and top 10 customers represent roughly 22% and 29%, respectively, of our full-year 2024 revenue. In the fourth quarter, we generated $190.7 million in cash flow from operating activities, and our net days sales outstanding was negative 71 days. As of December 31, 2024, we had $669.4 million in cash. During the fourth quarter and full-year 2024, we repurchased approximately 527,000 shares for $174.2 million. At the end of the quarter, we had $134.6 million remaining under our share repurchase authorization program.

關於客戶集中度，我們的前五名客戶和前十大客戶分別占我們 2024 年全年收入的約 22% 和 29%。第四季度，我們從經營活動產生了1.907億美元的現金流，淨應收帳款週轉天數為負71天。截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日，我們擁有現金 6.694 億美元。在第四季和 2024 年全年，我們以 1.742 億美元回購了約 527,000 股。截至本季末，我們的股票回購授權計畫剩餘金額為 1.346 億美元。

Moving now to our guidance for 2025, full-year 2025 total revenue is expected in the range of $2.11 billion to $2.21 billion, which represents flat to 4.8% growth over 2024 total revenue of $2.11 billion. Our 2025 EBITDA is expected in the range of $462 million to $492 million, representing a decline of 3.8% to growth of 2.5% compared to EBITDA of $480.2 million in 2024.

現在轉到我們對 2025 年的指導，預計 2025 年全年總收入將在 21.1 億美元至 22.1 億美元之間，與 2024 年 21.1 億美元的總收入相比持平至增長 4.8%。我們預計 2025 年 EBITDA 在 4.62 億美元至 4.92 億美元之間，與 2024 年 EBITDA 4.802 億美元相比下降 3.8% 至成長 2.5%。

We forecast 2025 net income in the range of $378 million to $402 million. This guidance assumes a full-year 2025 effective tax rate of 18% to 19%, interest income of $30.5 million, and 31.7 million diluted weighted average shares outstanding for 2025. There are no additional share repurchases reflected in our guidance. Earnings per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $11.93 to $12.69. Guidance is based on foreign exchange rates as of December 31, 2024.

我們預測 2025 年淨收入將在 3.78 億美元至 4.02 億美元之間。該指引假設 2025 年全年有效稅率為 18% 至 19%，利息收入為 3,050 萬美元，2025 年稀釋加權平均流通股數為 3,170 萬股。我們的指引中並沒有反映額外的股票回購。預計每股攤薄收益在 11.93 美元至 12.69 美元之間。該指引是基於 2024 年 12 月 31 日的外匯匯率。

With that, I will turn the call back over to the operator, so we can take your questions.

說完這些，我會將電話轉回給接線生，以便我們回答您的問題。

Dan Leonard, UBS.

瑞銀的丹·倫納德（Dan Leonard）。

Thank you. A couple questions. First off, on the service gross margins in the quarter, I understand the pass-through mix component. I was hoping you could elaborate on some of the other factors that drove the outperformance on that line, whether they be headcount related or otherwise.

謝謝。幾個問題。首先，關於本季的服務毛利率，我了解轉嫁組合成分。我希望您能詳細說明推動該產品線優異表現的一些其他因素，無論是與員工人數有關還是其他因素。

Hey, Dan, this is Kevin. It's really just the productivity of our existing staff and the programs that are in backlog progressing very nicely. And so it's really kind of the second quarter that we've seen great progress on the direct service side.

嘿，丹，我是凱文。這其實只是我們現有員工的生產力以及積壓項目的進展非常順利。因此，我們在第二季度確實看到直接服務方面取得了巨大進展。

Okay. And then as a follow up, what are the assumptions that would get you to the high end of your revenue guidance in 2025?

好的。然後作為後續問題，什麼樣的假設可以讓您在 2025 年達到收入預期的高端？

Say that again, Dan? Sorry.

再說一遍，丹？對不起。

Yes, what are the assumptions that would get you to the high end of your revenue guidance in 2025?

是的，那麼什麼樣的假設能讓您達到 2025 年營收預期的高端呢？

Yes, I mean, really, just the business environment improving a bit and your programs that kind of are sitting in that pre-backlog bucket progressing into backlog as awards in those programs continuing.

是的，我的意思是，確實，商業環境有所改善，而您的那些處於積壓前階段的項目正在逐漸變成積壓項目，因為這些項目中的獎項仍在繼續。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Max Smock, William Blair.

馬克斯·斯莫克，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking our questions. August, you mentioned the business environment deteriorated some over the last couple months here. I guess my question is, are you surprised by that, given the better funding environment that we saw in 2024? And what do you think is behind that deterioration? Do you think it could just be some of these companies maybe taking a little bit of a pause to digest, I guess, some of the uncertainty caused by the election? Or is there something else going on that you would call out that is really driving that weakness?

你好。大家早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。八月，您提到過去幾個月這裡的商業環境惡化。我的問題是，考慮到 2024 年我們看到的更好的融資環境，您是否對此感到驚訝？您認為造成這種惡化的原因是什麼？您是否認為這些公司可能需要稍作停頓來消化選舉帶來的一些不確定性？或者您認為還有其他因素真正導致了這種弱點？

Yes, I don't really have an explanation for it. And it was just a -- this is a subjective thing. I think RFP flow was fine. It's the qualitative aspects of the type of size and type of projects we're getting and likelihood of them moving forward. And I just thought it wasn't quite as robust as what we'd seen in the prior couple quarters, which was really kind of accelerating, and it seemed to decelerate some.

是的，我確實無法解釋這一點。這只是一個——這是一個主觀的事情。我認為 RFP 流程很好。這是我們正在進行的項目的規模和類型的定性方面，以及它們向前推進的可能性。我只是認為它不像前幾季那樣強勁，前幾季的成長確實有點加速，但似乎又有些減速。

Yes, I don't know if it's because of the election and just concerns about where things are going or what the situation is or whether it's going to turn around soon. I did note that it wasn't as robust as it had been the prior couple quarters in terms of core business environment.

是的，我不知道是否因為選舉，只是擔心事態會如何發展，情況如何，或者是否會很快好轉。我確實注意到，就核心業務環境而言，它並不像前幾季那麼強勁。

Now cancellations on the other side have abated some. There's kind of two sides to the environment, and one is kind of new opportunities, and that is maybe weakening a bit. But the cancellations were down in Q4 relative to the prior three quarters, really. So it was the first quarter of the year that we had kind of a closer to normalized cancellation rate, although I think the cancellations were still toward the high side. So cancellations, improving; business environment, maybe just a little bit weaker. We'll have to see in Q1.

現在，另一邊的取消情況已經減少。環境有兩面，一方面是新的機遇，另一方面可能會有些弱。但第四季的取消數量確實比前三個季度有所下降。因此，今年第一季度，我們的取消率已經接近正常化，儘管我認為取消率仍然偏高。因此取消，改進；商業環境可能稍微弱一些。我們將在第一季看到結果。

Understood. Thank you for that helpful commentary. And then just following up on your comments about some of those delays, I think you called out a couple that were -- a couple projects that were expected to hit bookings in the quarter. Is there any color you can provide around what was behind those delays and how much visibility you have into those projects hitting bookings in the next couple of quarters here? And then how do you think about the risk that those delays eventually turn into cancellations in the first half of this year? Thank you.

明白了。感謝您的有益評論。然後，關於您對一些延遲的評論，我想您提到了幾個預計將在本季度達到預訂量的項目。您能否詳細說明這些延遲的原因，以及您對未來幾季這些項目的預訂情況有多少了解？那麼您如何看待今年上半年這些延誤最終導致取消的風險？謝謝。

Yes, I do expect those studies that I mentioned being delayed as progressing, just being a little bit slightly delayed, not greatly delayed. We do have some projects that are on longer kind of hold pattern. And there's always a risk that anything cancels. I can't hedge that, and cancellations are still top of my mind in terms of risks of us performing this year. But I think that most of what was kind of pushed out of Q4 I think will hit here in the first half of 2025.

是的，我確實希望我提到的那些被推遲的研究能夠取得進展，只是稍微推遲了一點，而不是大大推遲了。我們確實有一些項目處於較長時間的擱置狀態。任何事情都有可能取消的風險。我無法對此進行規避，就我們今年的演出風險而言，取消演出仍然是我最擔心的問題。但我認為，第四季推遲的大部分措施將在 2025 年上半年實現。

Understood. Thanks again for taking the questions. I'll hop back in the queue.

明白了。再次感謝您回答這些問題。我將重新回到隊列中。

Eric Coldwell, Baird.

埃里克·科爾德威爾，貝爾德。

Thanks very much. Good morning. I'm curious about the revenue phasing expectations through the year with a zero to 5% growth range. Are you anticipating a big drop-off here in the beginning of the year and then a ramp towards the back half? Is it more linear through the year? And then what is the indirect revenue mix component or growth component? Is it down like you saw here in the fourth quarter and the deceleration we've seen over the last year? Are you expecting it to stabilize at this percent of revenue, go back up? What's the mix between direct and indirect fees, please?

非常感謝。早安.我很好奇全年收入分階段的預期，成長範圍在 0 到 5% 之間。您是否預計今年年初會大幅下滑，然後在下半年出現上升？全年來看它是否更線性？那麼間接收入組合成分或成長成分是什麼呢？它是否像您在第四季度看到的那樣下降，或者像我們在去年看到的減速一樣？您是否預期它會穩定在這項收入百分比，然後回升？請問直接費用和間接費用的比例是多少？

Yes, Eric, as it relates to the indirect, our modeling would suggest that 2025 as a percentage of revenue will be somewhere around where we landed in the fourth quarter here. So you're down from where we were in total year '24 at levels similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter here. What was the first part of your question?

是的，艾瑞克，就間接收入而言，我們的模型表明，2025 年的收入百分比將與我們第四季的收入百分比大致相同。因此，與 24 年全年相比，您的業績有所下降，與我們今年第四季的業績水準相似。您的問題的第一部分是什麼？

Phasing on revenue, the zero to 5% range, are we starting at the low end and moving to a higher level in the back half? Is it more linear growth through the year, or just the thought process on timing the revenue production?

分階段提高收入，即從零到 5％ 的範圍，我們是從低端開始，然後在後半年轉向更高的水平嗎？它是全年的線性成長嗎，還是只是關於安排收入生產時間的思考過程？

Yes, it will somewhat depend on how those programs progress into awards throughout the year. Certainly, we've got a pipeline of those backlog opportunities, so I would expect there to be some linear progression throughout the year. I wouldn't expect a major step up in the first quarter here, but hopefully sequentially growing revenues throughout the year from there. But it will depend on how the bookings progress as well.

是的，這在某種程度上取決於這些項目全年的獎項進度。當然，我們已經有了一系列積壓機會，因此我預計全年將會有一些線性進展。我預計第一季的營收不會大幅成長，但希望全年營收能夠逐步增加。但這也取決於預訂的進展。

And then if I could just squeeze in one more. Advanced Billings, kind of an intriguing topic. It doesn't get a lot of airtime, but you did show quarter-to-quarter increases in Advanced Billings, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q. You finished the year with Advanced Billings up 27% year-over-year. I'm not quite sure what drove that and how that happens in a year where bookings were down, what, 5% plus and down 14% in the fourth quarter; revenue slowed. What's keeping these Advanced Billings at such a high level and actually improving a little bit sequentially through the last three quarters?

然後如果我能再擠一點的話。高級帳單，一個很有趣的話題。雖然它的播出時間不多，但確實顯示了高級帳單的逐季成長，第二季、第三季、第四季。今年，您的預付帳單比去年同期成長了 27%。我不太清楚是什麼原因導致了這種情況，也不清楚為什麼會發生這種情況，因為去年的預訂量下降了 5% 多，而第四季度卻下降了 14%；收入放緩。是什麼使得這些預付賬單保持如此高的水平，並且在過去三個季度中實際上環比略有改善？

Yes, good question, Eric. I mean, a lot of that is going to be timing based on the active programs that are in backlog and how those programs are progressing. You saw the nice growth rates that we've seen on the direct side of the business, and we try to create payment schedules and milestone payments that stay a bit ahead of the work that we're doing. A lot of it's just timing related on how the mix of programs is going and our ability to bill according to those milestone payments and collect against those. As you know, we stay on top of sponsors and credit and making sure that we're getting paid as we're going to work.

是的，艾瑞克，你問得好。我的意思是，很多時間安排都是基於積壓的活動項目以及這些項目的進度。您看到了我們在業務直接方面看到的良好成長率，並且我們嘗試創建付款計劃和里程碑付款，使其略微領先於我們正在做的工作。其中許多只是與專案組合的進度以及我們根據里程碑付款進行收費和收款的能力相關的時間。如您所知，我們密切關注贊助商和信譽，並確保我們在工作時能夠獲得報酬。

Fewer clients that are not paying us and we continue to work. Maybe that's it.

不付款的客戶越來越少，我們就可以繼續工作。也許就是這樣。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

David Windley, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的戴維·溫德利（David Windley）。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to focus on the cost side a little bit. I wondered, when we were together in November, you talked about retention being at very high levels, much higher than historical norms, and that was leading to greater levels of productivity. I think the expectation was that it was probably at a peak and couldn't get much better. The fourth quarter was better, and it seems like at least some of your margin expectation next year assumes that that continues.

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想稍微關心一下成本方面。我想知道，當我們 11 月在一起時，您談到保留率處於非常高的水平，遠高於歷史標準，並且這將帶來更高的生產力水平。我認為預期是它可能已經達到頂峰並且不可能變得更好。第四季的情況有所好轉，而且看起來至少您對明年利潤率的部分預期是假設這種情況能夠持續下去。

So I wondered if you could maybe provide a little bit more precision around the productivity levels of the staff, and when you would anticipate or if you are anticipating kind of restarting hiring at any point during the '25 calendar year, or if the guidance basically assumes that staff continues to be relatively flat. Thanks.

所以我想知道您是否可以更精確地說明員工的生產力水平，以及您預計何時或是否預計在 25 日曆年的任何時候重新開始招聘，或者指導意見是否基本上假設員工人數繼續保持相對平穩。謝謝。

Yes. Hey, Dave. It's Jesse. Yes, in terms of productivity, it does remain at a very high level. Good productivity continues, good retention continues, a lot of experienced staff just continuing to work diligently on projects. The headcount growth was fairly flat in 2024. We do anticipate accelerating hiring here in 2025.

是的。嘿，戴夫。是傑西。是的，從生產力方面來說，它確實保持在非常高的水平。良好的生產力持續存在，良好的留任率持續存在，許多經驗豐富的員工繼續勤奮地從事專案工作。2024 年員工人數成長相當穩定。我們確實預期 2025 年這裡的招募將會加速。

So we are targeting, at the moment, headcount growth in the mid to maybe upper-mid single-digit level for the year. How that progresses throughout the year will be somewhat determined by what the business environment looks like and how that progresses. But we do anticipate hiring and kind of restarting the hiring engine a little bit more aggressively as we work through the year. And that will have likely a little bit of an impact on margins.

因此，我們目前的目標是，將今年的員工人數成長率定在中等至中上個位數的水平。全年進展如何，在某種程度上將取決於商業環境的狀況及其進展。但我們確實預計，隨著全年工作的發展，我們將更加積極地招聘，並重新啟動招聘引擎。這可能會對利潤產生一點影響。

Got it.

知道了。

And Dave, just to build on that, we do expect headwinds on margins if you look at the guidance that's out there. And the other thing to call out on the question I answered previously as it relates to the indirect and reimbursable cost. We do expect 2025 to be at a level similar to what we saw in the fourth quarter, which would mean that that as a percentage of revenue in 2025 comes down a little bit.

戴夫，在此基礎上，如果你看看現有的指導意見，我們確實預期利潤率會面臨阻力。關於我之前回答的問題，還有一點需要指出，因為它與間接費用和可報銷費用有關。我們確實預計 2025 年的水準將與第四季度相似，這意味著 2025 年的收入百分比將略有下降。

Right. On other cost actions, one of the things that I think you had talked about, I can't remember if it was last quarter or two quarters ago, is the beginnings of investment in offshoring, some back office functions, maybe data management, things like that. Where do those stand, and are some of the benefits of that activity beginning to show through in your financial expectations?

正確的。關於其他成本行動，我認為您談到的事情之一，我不記得是上個季度還是兩個季度前，就是開始對離岸外包、一些後台職能、也許還有數據管理之類的進行投資。這些情況如何？

Yes, I don't think we're -- go ahead, August.

是的，我不認為我們會——繼續吧，奧古斯特。

I was going to say, I still think it's early times. But yes, go ahead, Jesse.

我原本想說，我仍然認為現在還為時過早。但是的，繼續吧，傑西。

Yes, and like I said, we're just getting started there. I mean, that's more of a long-term play there. We haven't really seen any of the -- of the positive impact of that just yet. We are continuing to hire in India in a couple back-office functions and administrative functions. But I think any sort of tailwind that that creates or margin help will be some, but it won't be a major margin driver if you think about just the overall picture of margin profile. But it is a longer-term play, more so than anything that we're expecting to materialize here in 2025.

是的，就像我說的，我們才剛開始。我的意思是，這更像是一場長期行動。我們還沒有真正看到它的任何積極影響。我們將繼續在印度招募一些後台職能和行政職能的人員。但我認為這會產生一些順風或利潤幫助，但如果你只考慮利潤率狀況的整體情況，它不會成為主要的利潤驅動因素。但這是一個長期舉措，比我們預期在 2025 年實現的任何舉措都更為長期。

Got it. And then the last question for me is just, I guess, around competition. It kind of comes back to a bookings question, but I'm thinking about it more, again, from a margin sustainability standpoint and what we -- hear in the market, I know you would normally say that you typically see the bigger competitors. But it sounds like in the absence of a stronger demand environment broadly that they are moving down into what would be your more traditional space more aggressively. So I wonder if you're seeing that, and I would assume your reaction would be to not sacrifice price. But maybe, August, you could speak to that?

知道了。對我來說，最後一個問題想必與競爭有關。這有點回到預訂量問題，但我更多是從利潤可持續性的角度來考慮這個問題，而且我們在市場上聽到的，我知道你通常會說你通常會看到更大的競爭對手。但聽起來，由於缺乏更強勁的需求環境，他們正在更積極地進入更傳統的領域。所以我想知道您是否看到了這一點，並且我認為您的反應是不犧牲價格。但是，奧古斯特，也許你可以談談這個？

Sure. I think the environment has tightened everybody's belt some. I think clients are funding-challenged frequently, at least in our clients. And I think there is heightened competition, and pricing is a part of that. And I think you have to be as efficient as possible. Certainly, we have to be competitive and bring value to the table. And yes, price is part of that. We've had to defend our volume as well as our margin.

當然。我認為環境使得每個人的生活都變得緊繃。我認為客戶經常面臨資金挑戰，至少我們的客戶是這樣的。我認為競爭正在加劇，定價是其中一部分原因。我認為你必須盡可能地提高效率。當然，我們必須具有競爭力並帶來價值。是的，價格是其中一部分。我們必須捍衛我們的銷售和利潤。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you very much.

知道了。這很有幫助。非常感謝。

Jailendra Singh, Truist Securities.

Jailendra Singh，Truist Securities。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. So going back to the comment around biotech's slow decision-making and delays, et cetera, I understand it is tough to know what might be driving that. But based on your conversation with these companies, are there any key catalysts they're watching for before they're comfortable going forward with their project? And related to that, have you seen any signs that sponsors are putting pressure on these companies to put dollars into play? Because it seems like funding is not an issue. And if that's the case, it could create some pent-up demand in the near term. Any thoughts on that?

謝謝大家，早安。所以回到有關生物技術決策緩慢、延遲等的評論，我明白很難知道是什麼原因導致這種情況的發生。但是根據您與這些公司的對話，在他們放心推進專案之前，他們是否在關注任何關鍵的催化劑？與此相關，您是否看到任何跡象表明贊助商正在向這些公司施加壓力，要求其投入資金？因為看起來資金不是問題。如果是這樣，它可能會在短期內產生一些被壓抑的需求。對此有什麼想法嗎？

Yes, I think for our clients, funding is the issue. I can't speak to clients that have cash and just don't want to spend it. I just don't know. There's also -- things do take time and the clients that do have cash may not be ready with their IP to move forward for other reasons. I don't perceive a significant number of our clients holding on to cash despite they have a program that's ready to move forward and don't want to spend it. I just don't see that, but I don't know.

是的，我認為對我們的客戶來說，資金是一個問題。我無法與有現金卻不想花掉的客戶交談。我就是不知道。此外，事情確實需要時間，而有現金的客戶可能由於其他原因還沒有準備好繼續推進他們的 IP。儘管我們的客戶有一個可以繼續推進的計劃，但我沒有發現有大量客戶持有現金，而他們又不想花掉這筆錢。我只是沒看到，但我不知道。

Okay, that makes sense. And then my follow-up on the RFP trends in the quarter being down slightly sequentially versus Q3, can you speak a little bit more to the quality of RFPs? Are you seeing customers kind of prioritizing research on drugs with more promising data on drugs in later-stage trials or mix of RFPs and focus is still pretty consistent? And to that point, can you remind us where your mix is across Phase 1 to 4?

好的，這很有道理。然後，我對本季 RFP 趨勢的追蹤顯示，與第三季相比，該季度 RFP 趨勢略有下降，您能否再談談 RFP 的品質？您是否看到客戶優先考慮在後期試驗中獲得更有希望的藥物數據或 RFP 組合的藥物研究，並且重點仍然相當一致？關於這一點，您能提醒我們第 1 階段到第 4 階段的混音情況嗎？

Yes, okay, so I think RFPs were okay in Q4. Q4 just tends to be a little bit lighter in general. So I think the volume, the dollar volume of RFPs was fine from my perspective. So it was the qualitative side that I didn't think there was quite as many opportunities that looked promising in terms of size and likelihood of moving forward, et cetera. So a little bit more maybe churn in the RFP bucket than I would like. So that was kind of just my qualitative assessment, which is difficult to quantify.

是的，好的，所以我認為第四季的 RFP 還可以。整體而言，Q4 會稍微輕鬆一些。因此，我認為從我的角度來看，RFP 的數量（美元金額）是很好的。因此，從品質方面來看，我認為在規模、向前發展的可能性等方面，看起來有希望的機會並不多。因此，RFP 桶中的流失量可能比我希望的要多一些。所以這只是我的定性評估，很難量化。

In terms of our breakout Phase 1 through 4, Phase 1 itself is a very small part of our business. We're talking about a couple percent, 1%, if you talk about our CPU-type operations. Now generally, other Phase 1s in oncology, et cetera you throw in with Phase 2 and 3. That's the majority of the business, and dollar numbers Phase 2 and then the Phase 3 are somewhat comparable type of size of the business. And we don't have a lot of very late-phase type trials.

就我們的第 1 階段至第 4 階段而言，第 1 階段本身只是我們業務的一小部分。如果談論我們的 CPU 類型的操作，我們談論的是百分之幾，1%。現在一般來說，腫瘤學中的其他第 1 階段等會與第 2 階段和第 3 階段結合在一起。這是業務的大部分，第二階段和第三階段的美元數字在某種程度上是可比較的業務規模。我們沒有進行很多後期類型的試驗。

Good. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

Justin Bowers, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的賈斯汀·鮑爾斯。

Hi. Good morning, everyone. Can you talk about the trends that you're seeing in your pre-backlog awards and how cancellations are trending there? Is there a similar pattern that you're seeing in the bookings, or sort of in line, above, below what you're seeing in the backlog?

你好。大家早安。您能談談您在積壓訂單前看到的獎項趨勢以及取消訂單的趨勢嗎？您在預訂中看到的模式是否與積壓訂單中的模式相似，或者是否與積壓訂單中的模式一致、高於或低於？

I'm sorry, the cancellation in the pre-backlog?

抱歉，預先積壓的取消是這樣的嗎？

The pre-backlog awards, yes.

是的，預先積壓的獎項。

So okay, so our new award notification, you're just asking what the kind of volume was there?

好的，那麼我們的新獲獎通知，您只是問那裡的數量是多少？

Volume was, and then are you seeing, is there any divergence in the cancellations there versus what you're seeing in your net business, right?

數量是多少，然後您看到，那裡的取消量與您在淨業務中看到的相比有什麼差異嗎？

And then kind of that awards that have been awarded -- awards that we have that are not yet in backlog. Yes, so I think the flow is still okay. Again, I think that the business environment did soften a little bit in Q4, but our win rate was fine, and so I think that things moving into our kind of awarded but not backlogged yet is still looking okay and good enough to kind of get what we want to get second half of this year if everything else remains the same.

然後是已經頒發的獎項 — — 我們尚未積壓的獎項。是的，所以我認為流程還可以。再次，我認為第四季度的商業環境確實有所減弱，但我們的勝率還不錯，所以我認為，如果其他一切保持不變，進入我們授予但尚未積壓的階段的事情仍然看起來不錯，並且足以讓我們在今年下半年獲得想要的結果。

Cancellations came down both across the portfolio, so both more into our normal range for backlog cancellations as well as a reduction in our cancellations in that pre-backlog kind of phase. So those came down quite a bit also. And they were actually the bigger part of cancellations in 2024 and drove -- most of our booking difficulty were from that pre-backlog group rather than the backlog group itself. So they came down nicely also along with the backlog cancellations.

整個投資組合的取消量都有所下降，因此既更接近積壓取消量的正常範圍，也減少了積壓前階段的取消量。所以這些也下降了不少。事實上，他們是 2024 年取消訂單的主要原因，而導致我們的預訂困難大部分來自於積壓前的訂單，而不是積壓訂單本身。因此，隨著積壓訂單的取消，他們的訂單也順利減少了。

Understood. And then just in terms of the demand environment and piecing together some of the other questions, it seems like quality started to improve late last year, and pricing was at least stabilizing, maybe improving a smidge. Is that still the trajectory, or has that sort of changed direction as well? And then maybe just comments on decision-making, like there's been a lot of delays throughout 2024. Is that sort of a persistent trend, or has the velocity changed there at all?

明白了。然後僅從需求環境和其他一些問題的角度來看，似乎品質在去年年底開始改善，價格至少趨於穩定，甚至可能略有改善。這仍然是軌跡嗎，或者方向也改變了？然後可能只是對決策的評論，就像 2024 年出現了很多延遲一樣。這是一種持續的趨勢嗎，或者速度已經改變了嗎？

So I think the business environment was much improved for the first three quarters of '24. So I think '24 was -- came out with accelerating kind of opportunities -- and aside from the cancellations. So if we looked at just new opportunities, and not what was happening in our business environment with things being pulled or funding problems of many of our clients, there was a lot of opportunities, and they were kind of accelerating.

所以我認為2024年前三個季度的商業環境有很大改善。因此，我認為 24 年帶來了加速發展的機會，而且除了取消之外。因此，如果我們只專注於新機遇，而不關注在我們的商業環境中發生的事情（例如產品被撤下或許多客戶遇到的資金問題），就會發現有很多機遇，而且這些機會正在加速。

Q4 was a little bit weaker maybe, but the environment is still not horrible. I don't know which direction it's going. It could just be maybe a little bit of a slowdown in Q4 and then things are going to re-accelerate, or it could be the signs of things are slowing down more. Delays and things like that -- it was funding, really. We've had a few delays and pushed things out of Q4, but it hasn't really been just quarter-to-quarter delays prior in the year. It was more financial difficulty and cancellations. Does that answer your question?

Q4 可能稍微弱一點，但環境仍然不是很糟糕。我不知道它往哪個方向去。這可能只是第四季度的經濟略微放緩，然後將重新加速，或者這可能是經濟進一步放緩的跡象。延誤之類的事情——實際上就是資金問題。我們遇到了一些延遲，並將一些事情推遲到了第四季度，但實際上，今年之前這並不是僅僅是季度之間的延遲。這更多的是財務困難和取消。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Understood. Yes, thank you, August.

明白了。是的，謝謝你，奧古斯特。

(Operator Instructions) Charles Rhyee, TD Cowen.

(操作員指示) Charles Rhyee，TD Cowen。

Yes, thanks for taking the question. Maybe just a little bit more clarification as we think about the cancellation rates. You're saying that it's kind of come back to normal. I know we've talked about cancellations from pre-backlog. How much longer should we expect these kind of dynamics to be impacting book-to-bill as we move through the course of the year? Do you feel like we're kind of getting at the end of that?

是的，感謝您回答這個問題。當我們考慮取消率時，也許需要更進一步的澄清。你說它有點恢復正常了。我知道我們已經討論過因預先積壓而取消的情況。今年內，我們預期此類動態還會對訂單出貨比產生多久的影響？你覺得我們是不是已經接近尾聲了？

And so when we think about the difference between, let's say, the 0.99 book-to-bill in the fourth quarter and sort of getting to this 1.15 as we get to the back half of the year, how would you kind of characterize that as a mix between sort of reducing sort of these pre-backlog cancellations or just expectations for RFP growth and awards?

那麼，當我們考慮第四季度的訂單出貨比 0.99 和下半年的 1.15 之間的差異時，您會如何將其描述為減少這些預先積壓的訂單取消量或僅僅是 RFP 增長和獎勵的預期？

Yes, so I think the elevated pre-backlog cancellations throughout 2024 will have an impact throughout 2025. And I expect weak bookings in the first couple quarters of '25. And then hopefully in the second half, we will get bookings that are accelerating and getting above that 1.15 sort of threshold that I look at, hopefully moving in '26 to 1.2, et cetera. But that's kind of the trajectory I’m seeing based upon the cancellations in our portfolio of pre-backlog work, which can take up to a year to translate into backlog.

是的，所以我認為 2024 年全年積壓取消量的增加將對 2025 年全年產生影響。我預計2025年前幾季的預訂量會比較疲軟。然後希望在下半年，我們的預訂量能夠加速成長，並超過我所期望的 1.15 的門檻，希望在 26 年能夠達到 1.2，等等。但根據我們先前積壓工作組合中的取消情況，我看到的軌跡就是這樣的，這些積壓工作可能需要長達一年的時間才能轉化為積壓。

Okay, so just to follow up there, so if we assume that that kind of activity -- it sounds like you're saying it's kind of -- you feel it can be relatively constant. When we think about the weaker first half-bookings, is that a function where you think -- you said the RFP activity in the fourth quarter was down slightly. We should expect -- you're seeing RFP activity here in the first quarter, lower. And so is it right to think that book-to-bill --

好的，只是為了跟進一下，如果我們假設那種活動 - 聽起來你是說它有點 - 你覺得它可以相對持續。當我們考慮上半年較弱的預訂量時，您是否認為——您說第四季度的 RFP 活動略有下降。我們應該預期 - 您會看到第一季的 RFP 活動較低。那麼，訂單出貨比——

I'm not projecting future RFPs. I'm projecting the bookings. I thought that's what you were asking.

我沒有預測未來的 RFP。我正在預測預訂量。我以為這就是你要問的。

Yes, I'm sorry. Yes, are you expecting bookings to be -- book-to-bill here to be sort of lower in the first half than the fourth quarter and then kind of ramping back up?

是的，很抱歉。是的，您是否預計上半年的訂單出貨比會比第四季低，然後又會回升？

No, I do not. I hope nothing is lower than Q4 in terms of booking -- book-to-bill. So I'm hoping that that is improved but still well below that 1.15. So I'm looking for rather weak bookings in the first couple quarters here of 2025. I certainly hope that's above a 1.0, and I have every reason to believe it will be, but just not anywhere near our longer-term run rate.

不，我不。我希望訂單量（訂單出貨比）不會低於第四季。所以我希望情況會有所改善，但仍遠低於 1.15。因此，我預計 2025 年前幾季的預訂量會相當疲軟。我當然希望這個數字高於 1.0，而且我也有充分的理由相信它會達到這個數字，但遠遠達不到我們長期的運行率。

Got it. Appreciate that. Okay, thank you.

知道了。非常感謝。好的，謝謝。

Ann Hynes, Mizuho. Your question, please.

安海因斯（Ann Hynes）、瑞穗（Mizuho）。請問您的問題。

Great. Thank you. So I know this is an uncertain environment, but I guess given your guidance, do you think your revenue guidance encompasses just the uncertainty? And when you talk to your customers, how much visibility do they have in the funding environment? So I'm just trying to figure out, with this new guidance, how confident are you in the visibility you have at this point in time? And maybe what do you think, at this point in time, would drive upside versus downside? That would be great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。所以我知道這是一個不確定的環境，但我想根據您的指導，您是否認為您的收入指導僅包含不確定性？當您與客戶交談時，他們對融資環境的了解程度如何？所以我只是想知道，有了這個新指導，您對目前的視覺性有多大信心？那麼，您認為目前是什麼因素推動了上行，什麼因素推動了下行？那太棒了。謝謝。

Okay. That's a little bit tough. How confident am I in? I have no idea where the business is going – the business environment in 2025. I think we've tried to make reasonable assumptions about the future path, and that's the guidance we came out with. I think there's substantial downside potential with further cancellations, a weakening business environment, and substantial upside opportunities if cancellations really dropped to well into our normal range and the business environment strengthens as it had been in most of 2024.

好的。這有點困難。我有多大信心？我不知道2025年的商業環境將會走向何方。我認為我們已經嘗試對未來的道路做出合理的假設，這就是我們得出的指導意見。我認為，如果進一步取消訂單、商業環境變弱，將帶來巨大的下行潛力；如果取消訂單真的下降到正常範圍內，商業環境像 2024 年的大部分時間一樣增強，將帶來巨大的上行機會。

So I think we're kind of equipoised here. I think we've got a good guidance that reflects the environment we're in, but there's certainly quite a bit. And look, this is a business that has -- a lot of it is established backlog for this 2025 is already in place. It's a matter of cancellations. And cancellations can completely destroy those hopes. But there's also the opportunity that cancellations are very low. And that's going to be the big driver. Yes, I don't know what else I can say to get you comfortable with the guidance we have.

所以我認為我們現在處於平衡狀態。我認為我們得到了一個很好的指導，反映了我們所處的環境，但肯定還有很多。你看，這是一家已經為 2025 年確定了許多積壓訂單的企業。這是取消的問題。而取消則會徹底摧毀這些希望。但取消率也有可能很低。這將成為最大的推動力。是的，我不知道我還能說些什麼才能讓您對我們的指導感到滿意。

Yes, maybe on the cancellation part, were there any trials canceled that surprised you? Meaning, is the industry acting different than historical drivers of cancellations? And then -- that would be great. And then just on the competitive environment, are there any notable changes sequentially that you would call out?

是的，也許就取消部分而言，有沒有令您感到驚訝的試驗取消？意思是，目前產業的行為是否與歷史上導致取消的因素不同？然後——那就太好了。那麼就競爭環境而言，您是否會指出接下來會發生哪些顯著的變化？

No real changes. On cancellations, for this past year, it's been very largely funding-related. Now cancellations come for a number of reasons. We've had products fail, various reasons for a cancellation to occur, competitive environment change substantially. There's a broad number of reasons for cancellations, but overwhelmingly, they've been at least linked in good part to funding. So that is the primary kind of driver that we see in terms of cancellations.

沒有真正的改變。關於取消，過去一年來，很大程度上與資金有關。現在取消的原因有很多。我們遇到產品失敗、因各種原因導致取消的情況，競爭環境也發生了巨大變化。取消的原因有很多，但絕大多數都與資金有關。所以，就取消而言，這是我們看到的主要驅動因素。

All right. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Max Smock, William Blair.

馬克斯·斯莫克，威廉·布萊爾。

Hi. Thanks for squeezing in a follow-up here. I just wanted to ask a clarifying question on gross margin. One of the questions we've been getting is around whether there's any sort of tailwind to gross margin from the elevated cancellations that you saw in 2024. So just hoping you can walk through the payments that you received for those cancellations.

你好。感謝您抽出時間在這裡進行跟進。我只是想問一個關於毛利率的澄清問題。我們一直在問的一個問題是，2024 年訂單取消量的增加是否會為毛利率帶來任何推動作用。所以我僅希望您能仔細了解因取消而收到的付款。

And I guess the way I think about it, just for work completed and then for wind-down costs, but wanted to confirm that there's not any sort of incremental payments in there that would have artificially inflated your margins this year, and then therefore would be a bit of a headwind to margins in 2025, given that cancellations seem to normalize in a bit. Thank you.

我是這樣想的，只是針對已完成的工作，然後是逐漸減少的成本，但我想確認的是，其中不存在任何形式的增量付款，這些增量付款會人為地抬高你今年的利潤率，因此，考慮到取消合約似乎很快就會正常化，這將對 2025 年的利潤率造成一些阻力。謝謝。

Kevin, I don't know if you want me to --

Kevin，我不知道你是否想讓我--

Yes.

是的。

Let me take a stab at first. I think that cancellations historically have been something of a tailwind for margin. And often it kind of accelerates a lot of work on closeout, et cetera, and also just I think our routine monitoring of percent completion. And I think we're reasonably conservative about revenue accrual that sometimes catches up some aspects at closeout. So I think that in general, there is something of a tailwind from cancellations. Kevin, I don't know if you have any quantification for that.

首先讓我嘗試一下。我認為，從歷史上看，取消訂單對利潤來說是一種順風。通常它可以加速竣工結算等方面的大量工作，而且我認為它還可以加快我們對完成百分比的例行監控。我認為，我們對收入累積持相當保守的態度，有時會在結算時彌補一些方面的問題。因此我認為，整體而言，取消會帶來一些好處。凱文，我不知道你對此是否有任何量化的答案。

Yes, it's nothing that I can quantify, but I would say while there is some slight tailwind from that, the core tailwind on margins this year has again been just the productivity of the existing employee base. It's been tremendous. Again, headcount is flat year-over-year, and the organization and the employee base continues to be productive in advancing programs, and that's really what's driving margins. Yes, there might be a slight tailwind from some of these cancellations and, as August mentioned, closing out those programs. But by and large, it's just the retention of the employee base and good utilization and just great execution.

是的，我無法量化，但我想說，雖然這會帶來一些輕微的順風，但今年利潤率的核心順風再次只是現有員工群體的生產力。這真是太棒了。再次，員工人數與去年同期持平，組織和員工基礎繼續在推進專案方面富有成效，這才是推動利潤率的真正因素。是的，一些項目的取消和關閉可能會帶來輕微的順風，正如 August 提到的那樣。但總的來說，這只是保留了員工基礎、良好的利用率和出色的執行力。

Understood. Thanks again for squeezing in a follow-up.

明白了。再次感謝您抽空跟進。

Eric Coldwell, Baird.

埃里克·科爾德威爾，貝爾德。

Thanks. I was hoping you could help us with performance obligations. Your performance obligations as reported in SEC filings actually grew at a nice and accelerating clip all year. Third quarter was up 25% year-over-year. It was up over 9% quarter-over-quarter.

謝謝。我希望您能幫助我們履行履約義務。正如美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 文件所報告的，您的履約義務實際上全年都以良好的速度成長。第三季年增25%。與上一季相比，成長了 9% 以上。

I'm struggling a bit with trying to triangulate between what should be and has historically been an extremely high positive correlation to future revenue growth, which was a number that spiked dramatically in 3Q, versus what you're telling us on the bookings and the revenue outlook for this year, which obviously are much lower. So how did that come to pass, that performance obligations were up 25% in the third quarter, and why is that not as correlated to revenue growth in '25 as it has been historically?

我正在努力嘗試在應該是什麼以及歷史上一直與未來收入增長呈極高的正相關性之間進行三角測量，這一數字在第三季度急劇上升，而你告訴我們的今年的預訂量和收入前景顯然要低得多。那麼，這是怎麼發生的呢？

Those look very far out. We have a five-year project, and all of it goes into performance obligation. But only a portion of that is near-term, and that is included in our backlog, even if it reaches backlog. So you get backlog, okay. We get an award usually by the time we've got a signed contract and it's an obligation. It's usually in backlog, but it's only a part of it that's in backlog.

這些看起來非常遙遠。我們有一個五年期的項目，所有的資金都用於履行義務。但其中只有一部分是近期的，而且即使達到了積壓水平，也包含在我們的積壓訂單中。所以你有積壓，好的。我們通常在簽署合約時就會獲得獎勵，這是義務。它通常處於積壓狀態，但只有一部分處於積壓狀態。

And you'd expect if you have a lot of projects canceling, a lot of new stuff being added in, that the average duration goes up. And that would increase the gap between performance obligations and backlog. But that's, I don't know -- quantitatively break that down exactly, but it's not something I think that would be unexpected. Revenue growth is going to be based upon -- late-stage projects have your fastest conversion, and it's all in backlog. Early stage stuff, there's still a lot of stuff held out.

而且，如果有很多項目被取消，很多新內容被添加，平均持續時間就會增加。這將增加履約義務和積壓訂單之間的差距。但我不知道如何從數量上準確地分解這一點，但我認為這並不是一件出乎意料的事情。收入成長將基於－後期專案具有最快的轉換率，並且全部積壓。早期階段的東西，仍有許多東西尚未完成。

Would there be any, on top of the timing nuance of cancels now, awards for later, is there any other more structural shift in the nature of the programs or the average duration of an incremental program coming in today is longer than what you would have seen in the past? Is there anything like that occurring? And then finally, I don't know if you could help us with this, but would you be willing to foreshadow what the performance obligations look like in the 10-K that will be coming later?

除了現在取消、以後授予獎項的時間細微差別之外，專案性質是否還有其他更結構性的變化，或者今天實施的增量專案的平均持續時間是否比過去更長？有類似的事情發生嗎？最後，我不知道您是否能幫助我們，但您是否願意預示一下稍後發布的 10-K 中的履約義務是什麼樣的？

Kevin?

凱文？

Yes, I mean, in terms of the foreshadowing, I mean, we'll publish that later today. I don't think the difference will be dramatically different than what you saw in the third quarter. Again, as August had mentioned, the tail on studies is really the largest driver of that delta. Because remember, we only put in the first three years of a program in the backlog. And there's other factors, like if there's an interim analysis, we only put the study in up to that interim analysis. There's a lot of differences between the accounting version versus the backlog version, but it's consistent from period to period. No structural changes, I guess, in other words, Eric.

是的，我的意思是，就預示而言，我們將在今天晚些時候發布。我認為差異不會與第三季的差異有太大不同。再一次，正如 August 所提到的，學習的尾部確實是造成這種差異的最大因素。因為請記住，我們只把專案的前三年放在了積壓工作中。還有其他因素，例如，如果有中期分析，我們只會進行截至該中期分析的研究。會計版本和積壓版本之間存在很大差異，但不同時期是一致的。換句話說，艾瑞克，我想，沒有結構性變化。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

But I do think backlog is a better reflection of what we think is -- we've given them a price, we've given them what we do, and we're obligated to do it even if they go into that next phase of the study. But sometimes, those are really just options that the client holds, and it's not likely to even get there. I think our backlog is a better reflection of what we think is qualified stuff that we're likely to perform.

但我確實認為積壓更好地反映了我們的想法——我們給了他們一個價格，我們告訴他們我們要做的事情，即使他們進入研究的下一階段，我們也有義務這樣做。但有時，這些其實只是客戶持有的選擇，甚至不太可能實現。我認為我們的積壓工作更好地反映了我們認為可能完成的合格工作。

Yes, I agree.

是的，我同意。

Thank you.

謝謝。

David Windley, Jefferies.

傑富瑞（Jefferies）的戴維·溫德利（David Windley）。

Hi. The beauty of a short conference call is we get to have multiple follow-ups here, maybe. I don't know if you like that or not, but I wanted to ask one as well. First of all, to clarify an answer you just gave to Eric. So August, you said late-stage programs are, I think your point was, burning more directly into revenue versus early-stage programs. I want to clarify by that that you mean the late stage of programs, right? So not the difference between Phase 1 and Phase 3, but the latter part of a Phase 3 rather than the earlier part of a Phase 3.

你好。簡短電話會議的優點在於，我們或許可以進行多次追蹤。我不知道你是否喜歡這個，但我也想問一個。首先，先澄清一下您剛剛給 Eric 的答案。所以 August，您說後期項目，我認為您的觀點是，與早期項目相比，後期項目會更直接轉化為收入。我想澄清一下，你的意思是程序的後期階段，對嗎？因此，不是第 1 階段和第 3 階段之間的區別，而是第 3 階段的後半部而不是第 3 階段的前半部。

Correct. It's all in backlog, so it's equal to the performance obligation, and it's going to burn all in the next year or two.

正確的。這些都積壓了，所以相當於履約義務，會在未來一兩年內全部燒掉。

Right, so just for kind of purposes of transcripts, so we get that clear.

好的，只是為了記錄的目的，所以我們要弄清楚。

Not a reference to clinical trial phase, early stage versus late stage, but a comment on trials in the latter part of their progression as opposed to trials that are starting earlier. That's what we're talking about.

這不是對臨床試驗階段、早期與晚期的提及，而是對處於進展後期的試驗的評論，而非早期開始的試驗。這就是我們正在談論的。

Right, appreciate that. And then, Kevin, I think you mentioned on margin some benefit, I believe, from FX. And I didn't hear a quantification of that. Wondered if you might quantify that. And then what is your FX assumption in the guidance for '25? Thanks.

好的，我很感激。然後，凱文，我認為您提到了保證金方面從外匯中獲得的一些好處。但我沒有聽到對此的量化。想知道您是否可以量化這一點。那麼，您對 25 年指引中的外匯假設是什麼？謝謝。

Yes, the guidance assumes FX rates as of December 31. And in terms of the impact in the fourth quarter, it was probably about $4 million EBITDA impact for the fourth quarter, net.

是的，該指南假設外匯匯率截至12月31日。就第四季的影響而言，第四季的淨 EBITDA 影響可能約為 400 萬美元。

Okay. All right, great. That's all for me. Thank you.

好的。好的，太好了。對我來說這就是全部了。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to Lauren Morris for any further remarks.

謝謝。今天節目的問答環節到此結束。我想將節目單交還給勞倫·莫里斯，以便他可以做出進一步的評論。

Thank you for joining us on today's call and for your interest in Medpace. We look forward to speaking with you again on our first-quarter 2025 earnings call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議並關注 Medpace。我們期待在 2025 年第一季財報電話會議上再次與您交談。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.

女士們、先生們，感謝大家參加今天的會議。該計劃確實結束了。您現在可以斷開連線。再會。