億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Fourth Quarter 2017 Year End Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際2017年第四季及全年業績電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you. Good afternoon and thanks for joining us. With me today are Dirk Van de Put, our CEO; and Brian Gladden, our CFO.

謝謝。下午好，感謝各位的參與。今天陪我一起的有我們的執行長 Dirk Van de Put 和我們的財務長 Brian Gladden。

Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com/investors. During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可在我們的網站 mondelezinternational.com/investors 上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise noted. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天準備的發言稿中部分內容涉及非GAAP財務指標。除非另有說明，今天我們將使用非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Dirk.

接下來，我將把電話交給德克。

Thank you, Shep. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us. This is an important moment, at least for me, since this is my first earnings call as CEO. I am honored to lead Mondelez and I am excited to be with you today. Mondelez is a great company with iconic brands, many competitive advantages and a very strong team. We have a simple yet powerful purpose and vision for the company, which is to create more moments of joy by building the best snacking company in the world. And I look forward to make that happen for the benefit of all our stakeholders, consumers, customers, communities, colleagues and you, our shareholders.

謝謝你，謝普。下午好，感謝各位的參與。對我而言，這是一個重要的時刻，因為這是我第一次擔任執行長的財報電話會議。我很榮幸能夠領導億滋國際，今天能與大家見面我感到非常興奮。億滋是一家偉大的公司，擁有標誌性品牌、許多競爭優勢和一支非常強大的團隊。我們公司有一個簡單而強大的目標和願景，那就是透過打造世界上最好的零食公司來創造更多快樂的時刻。我期待著實現這一目標，造福我們所有的利害關係人、消費者、客戶、社區、同事以及你們——我們的股東。

Today, I'll share my thoughts on our performance in 2017, some of my early impressions and the priorities I have been focused on during my first 60 days. I'll also share some perspective on our outlook for 2018 before I turn it over to Brian.

今天，我將分享我對我們 2017 年表現的看法、我的一些初步印像以及我在上任後的前 60 天重點關注的工作重點。在把發言權交給布萊恩之前，我也會分享我們對 2018 年的展望。

Overall, I would call 2017 a solid year. We delivered another strong year on the bottom line. Our adjusted operating income grew by 130 basis points and adjusted EPS was up by 15%. This was achieved largely through our strong operating performance. On the top line, our organic net revenue grew 0.9%. And while that was in line with our latest outlook, we know we can do better. 3 of our 4 regions, Europe, Asia, Middle East and Africa and Latin America each delivered solid profitable growth. Our emerging markets are improving and we exited 2017 with the BRIC countries gaining some momentum.

總的來說，我認為2017年是相當不錯的一年。我們今年的獲利表現依然強勁。經調整後的營業收入成長了 130 個基點，經調整後的每股盈餘成長了 15%。這主要得益於我們強勁的營運表現。從營收方面來看，我們的有機淨收入成長了0.9%。雖然這與我們最新的展望相符，但我們知道我們還可以做得更好。我們四個區域中有三個區域（歐洲、亞洲、中東和非洲以及拉丁美洲）都實現了穩健的獲利成長。我們的新興市場正在改善，2017 年末，金磚國家的發展動能也越來越強勁。

In North America, the June malware incident had a significant negative effect on our results for the year. Going forward, we remain focused on improving our performance in this region.

在北美，6 月的惡意軟體事件對我們當年的業績產生了重大負面影響。展望未來，我們將繼續專注於提升我們在該地區的表現。

Our Power Brands continue to deliver strong results. Our biscuits business is solid and our chocolate franchise is growing well around the world. We also returned $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. So all in all, it was a solid year for us given the environment.

我們的強勢品牌持續取得優異業績。我們的餅乾業務很穩健，巧克力特許經營業務在全球範圍內發展良好。我們也透過分紅和股票回購向股東返還了 34 億美元。總的來說，考慮到環境因素，這對我們來說是穩健的一年。

But we are not satisfied and we know we still have a lot of work to do to get to a stronger path of sustainable growth on both the top and bottom lines. It's encouraging to see that we exited the year with an increasing momentum as our organic revenue grew 2.4% in the fourth quarter. So we are cautiously optimistic we can carry some of that momentum forward in 2018. That, given the strength of our global portfolio, our focus on execution, improving currency and also commodity market trends.

但我們並不滿足，我們知道，為了在營收和利潤方面實現更強勁的可持續成長，我們還有很多工作要做。令人鼓舞的是，我們以不斷增強的勢頭結束了這一年，第四季度我們的有機收入增長了 2.4%。因此，我們謹慎樂觀地認為，我們可以將這種勢頭延續到 2018 年。鑑於我們強大的全球投資組合、我們對執行的重視、貨幣和商品市場的改善趨勢。

So let me turn to my priorities and the opportunities ahead of us. When I became CEO in November, I established 3 immediate priorities: the first, pretty obvious, get to know our business, our consumers, our clients and my colleagues; the second, we have to execute our 2018 business plan with excellence. It's the last year of our current strategic plan and so we want to finish the job; and third, lead a comprehensive review to develop a new strategic framework for the next 3 to 5 years.

那麼，讓我談談我的工作重點和眼前的機會。11 月我上任 CEO 時，我制定了 3 項當務之急：第一項顯而易見，那就是了解我們的業務、我們的消費者、我們的客戶和我的同事；第二項，我們必須出色地執行 2018 年的商業計劃。今年是我們目前策略計畫的最後一年，所以我們想完成這項工作；第三，領導一次全面的審查，為未來 3 到 5 年制定新的策略框架。

As a consequence, during the past 2 months, I've traveled the world, meeting with customers, colleagues, suppliers and investors. I've visited all 4 of our regions, 8 of our 10 biggest markets and I plan to continue to visit critical markets in the months to come. I've spent that time mainly listening and observing to be able to lead this business with knowledge and to drive that new strategic plan. I've been very impressed by the power of our brands in so many local markets and how committed our colleagues are to winning in the marketplace. My visits have confirmed my belief that our company is uniquely positioned to differentiate itself based on our brand leadership across major snacking categories.

因此，在過去的兩個月裡，我走遍了世界各地，會見了客戶、同事、供應商和投資者。我已經走訪了我們全部 4 個地區，10 個最大市場中的 8 個，我計劃在接下來的幾個月裡繼續走訪重要的市場。我主要利用這段時間傾聽和觀察，以便能夠憑藉知識領導這家企業，並推動新的策略計劃。我對我們的品牌在眾多本地市場的強大影響力以及我們同事們為贏得市場所做的努力印象深刻。我的實地考察證實了我之前的想法，即我們公司憑藉在主要零食類別中的品牌領導地位，擁有獨特的優勢，能夠脫穎而出。

Through our attractive geographical exposures, especially in emerging markets, our strong innovation capabilities and a continued renovation of our assets, we will be able to drive solid growth, both on the bottom and the top line.

憑藉我們在新興市場極具吸引力的地域佈局、強大的創新能力以及對資產的持續改造，我們將能夠實現穩健成長，無論是在利潤還是營收方面。

As you know, we have made excellent progress on margins. We have delivered an improvement of 600 basis points since 2013. Going forward, we're well positioned to benefit from improving market dynamics. We will leverage our competitive advantage to also accelerate our top line growth. It's early but we are seeing some signs of category improvements in some markets. However, we do have a lot of work to do. We must continue to evolve to meet today's fast-changing consumer expectations. We have to be more innovative, forward-looking and fast-moving than ever before and we'll have to combine that with excellent execution in each of our markets. And all of that must be done while remaining obsessed with our cost structure in order to stay competitive. Therefore, we're thoroughly evaluating our business to refresh and evolve our growth framework. For me, this deep dive is an essential step to develop the right plan that drives sustainable growth and shareholder value.

如您所知，我們在利潤率方面取得了顯著進展。自 2013 年以來，我們取得了 600 個基點的進步。展望未來，我們已做好充分準備，從不斷改善的市場動態中獲益。我們將利用自身的競爭優勢，加速營收成長。現在下結論還為時過早，但我們已經看到一些市場出現了品類改善的跡象。然而，我們還有很多工作要做。我們必須不斷發展，以滿足當今快速變化的消費者期望。我們必須比以往任何時候都更具創新性、前瞻性和行動速度，並且必須在每個市場都做到卓越的執行力。為了保持競爭力，我們必須在控製成本結構的同時完成這一切。因此，我們正在對業務進行全面評估，以更新和改進我們的成長框架。對我而言，這種深入研究是製定正確計劃、推動永續成長和提升股東價值的關鍵一步。

We will share a little bit more of our approach to the strategic review at CAGNY in a few weeks. But please keep in mind that we're still in the initial phase of that review. We expect to complete this highly important work by the end of the summer and we'll provide more detail at that stage. In the meantime, we remain very focused on executing our 2018 plan.

幾週後，我們將與大家分享更多關於我們在CAGNY進行策略評估的方法。但請記住，我們目前仍處於審查的初始階段。我們預計將在夏季結束前完成這項非常重要的工作，屆時我們將提供更多細節。同時，我們將繼續全力執行2018年計畫。

As we think about our outlook, I want to make a few points before I hand it over to Brian. Overall, we expect our top line trajectory in 2018 to improve over 2017. Our categories improved in the second half but we're taking a balanced approach to our outlook this year. As such, we expect our organic net revenue to grow between 1% to 2%. As I mentioned before, the only region that hasn't been performing in line with our expectations is North America. They have a dynamic and competitive retail environment. So solid execution is key. And since the malware incident last summer, our supply chain execution has been challenged. While we are making progress, returning to normal service levels is taking longer than anticipated. We do know what needs to be done. And as such, our performance is gradually improving. But we do expect it will take a few quarters to see consistent improvement in this business.

在展望未來之際，我想在把發言權交給布萊恩之前先說明幾點。整體而言，我們預計 2018 年的營收成長趨勢將比 2017 年有所改善。下半年我們的各項指標均有所改善，但我們對今年的展望採取了平衡的態度。因此，我們預計我們的有機淨收入將成長 1% 至 2%。正如我之前提到的，唯一一個表現未達我們預期的地區是北美。他們擁有充滿活力且競爭激烈的零售環境。因此，紮實的執行力是關鍵。自去年夏天發生惡意軟體事件以來，我們的供應鏈執行一直面臨挑戰。雖然我們正在取得進展，但恢復正常服務水準所需的時間比預期要長。我們知道需要做什麼。因此，我們的業績正在逐步提高。但我們預計，這項業務需要幾個季度才能持續改善。

On the margin front, we remain committed to further expansion and expect to deliver an adjusted OI margin of approximately 17% in 2018, including the impact of pension accounting changes. We do expect that 2018 will be another year of double-digit EPS growth at constant currency, which sets us apart from others in the industry.

在利潤率方面，我們仍然致力於進一步擴張，預計 2018 年調整後的營業利潤率將達到約 17%，其中包括退休金會計變更的影響。我們預計 2018 年將再次實現兩位數的每股盈餘成長（以固定匯率計算），這使我們在業界脫穎而出。

And before I turn it over to Brian, I want to make a couple of comments on the Keurig-Dr Pepper transaction that was announced this Monday. We are excited to participate in this opportunity as we are significant shareholders in this new company. And we are pleased with our ongoing partnership with JAB. We see this as a compelling, new platform with a potential for significant additional value creation for us.

在把麥克風交給布萊恩之前，我想就本週一宣布的 Keurig-Dr Pepper 交易發表幾點看法。我們很高興能參與這個計畫中來，因為我們是這家新公司的重要股東。我們對與JAB的持續合作關係感到滿意。我們認為這是一個極具吸引力的新平台，具有為我們創造巨大額外價值的潛力。

Brian will take you through the details in his remarks. And with that, I'll turn it over to Brian.

布萊恩將在演講中詳細介紹。接下來，我將把麥克風交給布萊恩。

Thanks, Dirk, and good afternoon. We're pleased that we delivered another strong year of margin expansion and double-digit adjusted earnings growth, but we're not satisfied with our top line growth.

謝謝你，德克，下午好。我們很高興又一年實現了強勁的利潤率擴張和兩位數的調整後收益成長，但我們對營收成長並不滿意。

Let's start with our revenue performance. Organic net revenue growth for the year was 0.9%, which included a negative 40 basis points impact from the June malware incident. Second half growth was more than 2% as our Power Brands, emerging markets and overall category growth rates have picked up. Power Brands' performance continued to be a key driver of our growth, delivering more than 2% for the year. Emerging markets' revenue increased 3.6% as we see improving fundamentals across an increasing number of markets such as India, Russia, Southeast Asia and Mexico. In addition, our e-commerce business continued to perform well as we drove net revenue growth of more than 40% for the year. Our progress in 2017 supports our commitment to have a $1 billion e-commerce business by 2020.

我們先來看看營收表現。本年度有機淨收入成長0.9%，其中包括6月份惡意軟體事件造成的40個基點的負面影響。下半年成長率超過 2%，這得益於我們的強勢品牌、新興市場和整體品類成長率的提升。強勢品牌的出色表現繼續成為我們成長的關鍵驅動力，全年貢獻了超過 2% 的成長率。隨著印度、俄羅斯、東南亞和墨西哥等越來越多市場的基本面改善，新興市場的收入成長了 3.6%。此外，我們的電子商務業務持續表現良好，全年淨收入成長超過 40%。我們在 2017 年取得的進展支持了我們在 2020 年實現 10 億美元電子商務業務的承諾。

In the fourth quarter, we grew 2.4% as we moved beyond the impact of the malware incident and we lapped the prior year impact of demonetization in India. For the quarter, our results were driven by continued growth in our Power Brands and emerging markets of 3.7% and 6.3%, respectively, with positive volume growth for both.

第四季度，我們實現了 2.4% 的成長，因為我們擺脫了惡意軟體事件的影響，並且克服了去年印度廢鈔令的影響。本季度，我們的業績主要得益於強勢品牌和新興市場的持續成長，分別成長了 3.7% 和 6.3%，兩者的銷量均實現了正成長。

On a regional basis for the year, Europe revenue increased 1.3%, driven by growing volume and good results in both chocolate and biscuits. AMEA revenue grew 2.7% with exceptionally strong growth in India as well as solid results in Southeast Asia and Australia. Latin America grew 3.5%, behind mid-single digit growth in Mexico, strength in Brazil chocolate and currency-driven pricing in Argentina. Our North America revenue declined 2.4% as we saw challenges in our biscuits business resulting from malware-related losses, a tough operating environment and mixed execution.

從區域層面來看，歐洲年度收入成長了 1.3%，這主要得益於銷量成長以及巧克力和餅乾的良好表現。AMEA地區營收成長2.7%，其中印度市場成長尤為強勁，東南亞和澳洲市場也取得了穩健的業績。拉丁美洲成長了 3.5%，墨西哥實現了中等個位數的成長，巴西巧克力市場表現強勁，阿根廷受匯率波動影響價格上漲。由於惡意軟體造成的損失、艱難的經營環境以及執行不力等因素，我們的餅乾業務面臨挑戰，導致北美收入下降了 2.4%。

While we've seen some areas of positive progress in our DSD share gain plans, our service challenges have kept us from realizing all the gains we expected in the U.S. biscuits business during the year. That said, we are addressing our service challenges and we continue to believe our DSD system is a competitive advantage.

雖然我們在DSD市場佔有率成長計畫方面取得了一些積極進展，但我們的服務挑戰使我們未能實現本年度在美國餅乾業務中預期的所有成長。儘管如此，我們正在解決服務方面的挑戰，我們仍然相信我們的DSD系統是一項競爭優勢。

Now let's review our margin performance. We executed well during another year of adjusted OI margin expansion, growing 130 basis points to 16.3%. We've now delivered 600 basis points of margin growth over the past 4 years. Our 2017 results were driven by strong net productivity and lower SG&A. As we've delivered this margin improvement, we've continued investing in growth programs, funding our white space launches and with total A&C spending of approximately 9% for the year. This is down slightly in aggregate but up in several priority markets.

現在我們來回顧一下我們的利潤率表現。在調整後的營業利潤率再次擴張的這一年裡，我們表現出色，成長了 130 個基點，達到 16.3%。過去四年，我們的利潤率成長了 600 個基點。2017 年的業績主要得益於強勁的淨生產力及較低的銷售、一般及行政費用。在實現利潤率提升的同時，我們繼續投資於成長計劃，為空白市場產品發布提供資金，全年研發支出總額約為 9%。總體而言略有下降，但在幾個重點市場有所上升。

Gross margins were down slightly for the year as commodity pressure and select trade investments offset strong productivity. We're still expecting gross margin expansion will be a contributor to our 2018 OI margin growth, which I'll discuss in our outlook.

由於大宗商品壓力和部分貿易投資抵銷了強勁的生產效率，今年毛利率略有下降。我們仍預期毛利率擴張將對我們 2018 年營業利潤率的成長做出貢獻，我將在展望部分對此進行討論。

On a regional basis, strong net productivity and cost execution drove margin improvements in 3 of 4 regions. Europe delivered a strong year of margin expansion posting an increase of 160 basis points to 19.7%. AMEA increased by 140 basis points to 13.1%. Latin America increased 260 basis points to 15.5%. And North America was down 10 basis points to 20.1% as select trade investments and lower revenues limited margin growth.

從區域層面來看，強勁的淨生產力和成本控制推動了 4 個區域中 3 個區域的利潤率提高。歐洲今年的利潤率大幅擴張，成長了 160 個基點，達到 19.7%。AMEA 成長 140 個基點至 13.1%。拉丁美洲上升260個基點至15.5%。北美地區利潤率下降 10 個基點至 20.1%，原因是部分貿易投資和收入下降限制了利潤率成長。

Now let me provide some category highlights. Snacking category growth finished the year at 2.1%, with the second half performing better than the first, while our overall share results were mixed. Our biscuits business grew 0.8% for the year, with strength in the U.K., Germany and Southeast Asia. This was offset by weakness in the U.S. Approximately 30% of our year-to-date revenue grew or held share in this category. And excluding North America biscuits, about 80% of our revenue grew or held share. In chocolate, our global business was strong, growing 5%. Highlights included exceptional growth in India as well as solid results across Europe and Brazil. In addition, the impact of the first full year of our chocolate expansions in China and the U.S. was an important contributor to growth. Approximately 65% of our revenue grew or held share in this category. Gum and candy declined mid-single digits as the gum category continued to face headwinds. About 15% of our year-to-date revenue in this business gained or held share.

現在讓我來介紹一下各個類別的亮點。零食品類全年成長率為 2.1%，下半年表現優於上半年，而我們的整體市佔率結果喜憂參半。我們的餅乾業務全年成長了0.8%，其中英國、德國和東南亞市場表現強勁。但這被美國市場的疲軟所抵消。今年迄今為止，我們約有 30% 的收入在該類別中實現了成長或維持了市場份額。除北美餅乾業務外，我們約 80% 的收入實現了成長或保持了市場份額。在巧克力業務方面，我們的全球業務表現強勁，成長了 5%。亮點包括在印度的卓越成長，以及在歐洲和巴西的穩健業績。此外，我們在中國和美國開展巧克力業務的第一個完整年度也對成長做出了重要貢獻。我們約 65% 的收入在該類別中實現了成長或保持了市場份額。口香糖和糖果的銷售額均出現個位數百分比的下滑，其中口香糖類別持續面臨不利因素。今年迄今為止，該業務的收入約有 15% 實現了市場份額的成長或保持穩定。

Turning to earnings per share. We delivered full year adjusted EPS of $2.14, up 15% on a constant-currency basis, primarily driven by strong operating performance as well as good results from our coffee JVs.

接下來看每股收益。我們全年調整後每股收益為 2.14 美元，以固定匯率計算成長 15%，主要得益於強勁的經營業績以及咖啡合資企業的良好業績。

2017 was another year of substantial return of capital to our shareholders. We returned $3.4 billion in total as we repurchased 2.2 billion of shares, in part from proceeds related to several non-core divestitures. In addition, we significantly raised our dividend in July while announcing our commitment to grow our dividend faster than earnings going forward.

2017年，我們又一次向股東返還了大量資本。我們回購了 22 億股股票，總共返還了 34 億美元，部分資金來自幾項非核心資產剝離所得。此外，我們在7月大幅提高了股息，並宣布我們承諾未來股息成長速度將超過獲利成長速度。

Let me also spend a moment on free cash flow. For the year, we delivered $1.6 billion, which was below our outlook, primarily due to the timing of year-end customer collections and the impact of divestitures. We remain confident in improving cash flow performance in 2018 and beyond as CapEx spending is now below 4% of revenue, our restructuring spend is coming down and our working capital performance continues to improve with a best-in-class cash conversion cycle of negative 32 days for the year.

我還想花點時間談談自由現金流。今年我們實現了 16 億美元的收入，低於預期，主要原因是年底客戶收款的時間表和資產剝離的影響。我們對 2018 年及以後的現金流量表現仍有信心，因為資本支出目前低於收入的 4%，我們的重組支出正在減少，我們的營運資本表現也在持續改善，全年現金轉換週期為負 32 天，是業界最佳水準。

Now I'd like to give you an update on the impact of U.S. tax reform as it relates to our 2017 reported results. We recorded 2 significant entries in the fourth quarter relating to the implementation of the new tax law and we adjusted these one-time impacts out of our non-GAAP results. First, we remeasured our U.S. deferred tax liability, driven by the reduction of the U.S. tax rate from 35% to 21%, resulting in a $1.3 billion noncash one-time benefit to the P&L. Second, we're recording a $1.3 billion tax liability due on our historical foreign accumulated earnings. This liability results in a cash tax payout which we'll need to pay through 2026. As you know, we have limited accumulated cash overseas and are not repatriating any material amounts of cash as a result of the tax change.

現在我想向大家報告美國稅制改革對我們 2017 年業績報告的影響。我們在第四季度記錄了與新稅法實施相關的 2 項重大事項，並已將這些一次性影響從我們的非 GAAP 業績中調整出來。首先，由於美國稅率從 35% 降至 21%，我們重新衡量了美國的遞延所得稅負債，為損益表帶來了 13 億美元的非現金一次性收益。其次，我們要記錄一筆13億美元的稅款，這筆稅款是對我們過去在海外累計的收益產生的。這項負債將導致我們需要支付現金稅款，直到 2026 年。如您所知，我們在海外累積的現金有限，而且由於稅收政策的變化，我們也不會將任何大量現金匯回國內。

Please see our upcoming 10-K filing for more information on these items.

有關這些項目的更多信息，請參閱我們即將提交的 10-K 文件。

Before I move to the outlook, I want to provide a few comments on the current Dr Pepper transaction announced earlier this week. As we've said in the past, we've been very pleased with the performance of our equity investments that resulted from the July 2015 divestiture of our coffee business. With the take-private of Keurig Green Mountain in March 2016 and under the leadership of Bob Gamgort and the team, we've seen significant appreciation in the value of our 24% stake. This is confirmed by the strong financial results you've seen at Keurig.

在展望未來之前，我想就本週早些時候宣布的 Dr Pepper 交易發表一些看法。正如我們過去所說，我們對 2015 年 7 月剝離咖啡業務後獲得的股權投資表現感到非常滿意。隨著 Keurig Green Mountain 在 2016 年 3 月私有化，在 Bob Gamgort 和團隊的領導下，我們持有的 24% 股份的價值顯著提升。Keurig強勁的財務表現證實了這一點。

Similarly, our investment in JDE has also done very well. We think the financial and strategic rationale of this transaction is strong. We believe there's significant value to be created in the near term through the compelling synergies and long term as these 2 strong platforms and their brands are brought together. We're very impressed with the Keurig management team and see them as well positioned to run this new entity. In terms of key details, we'll roll our 24.2% stake in Keurig into a 13% to 14% stake in the new company and we'll continue to play an active role in the new entity with 2 board seats.

同樣，我們對 JDE 的投資也取得了非常好的回報。我們認為此次交易的財務和戰略意義都很充分。我們相信，透過這兩個強大的平台及其品牌的結合，短期內將產生巨大的協同效應，長期來看也將創造巨大的價值。我們對 Keurig 的管理團隊印象深刻，並認為他們完全有能力經營這家新公司。就關鍵細節而言，我們將把我們在 Keurig 的 24.2% 股份轉換為在新公司中的 13% 至 14% 股份，並且我們將繼續在新實體中發揮積極作用，擁有 2 個董事會席位。

In terms of financial impact, we expect this to be accretive in year 1 for us while also providing a significant increase in cash dividends. We'll continue to account for this investment through the equity method and have no plans to exit. We also continue to be invested in JDE and see additional value creation from that platform as well. Overall, we're very pleased with how the July 2015 coffee transaction has evolved in less than 3 years and the value that it brings to our company.

從財務影響方面來看，我們預計這將在第一年為我們帶來收益成長，同時也將大幅增加現金股利。我們將繼續採用權益法來核算這項投資，並且沒有退出的計畫。我們也會繼續投資 JDE，並看到該平台還能創造更多價值。總的來說，我們對 2015 年 7 月的咖啡交易在不到 3 年的時間裡的發展以及它為我們公司帶來的價值感到非常滿意。

Let me now provide some more details on our outlook for 2018, which we think is a balanced plan based on the environment we see today. We expect organic net revenue growth in the 1% to 2% range versus the 0.9% growth we delivered in 2017. This includes a return to modest growth in North America. And if global category growth continues to improve, we could see some improvement in this revenue outlook. Our first quarter is likely to have revenue growth at the low end of our total year outlook as we continue to work to stabilize our North America performance. We expect to deliver adjusted OI margin of approximately 17%. We're planning for continued strong net productivity and trade spend management as a key focus area. In addition, this will be another year of significant supply chain reinvention as we move more production to our new Lines of the Future. In 2018, we'll reflect the impact of the new pension accounting rules, which effectively move about $50 million of OI margin to below the OI line with no impact on earnings or cash flow. This is about a 20 basis point reduction in our adjusted OI margin.

現在讓我進一步詳細介紹我們對 2018 年的展望，我們認為這是一個基於我們今天所看到的環境而製定的平衡計劃。我們預計有機淨收入成長將在 1% 至 2% 之間，而 2017 年我們的成長率為 0.9%。這其中包括北美地區恢復溫和成長。如果全球品類成長持續改善，我們可能會看到收入前景有所改善。由於我們仍在努力穩定北美地區的業績，因此我們第一季的營收成長可能處於全年預期範圍的低端。我們預計調整後的未償付營業收入利潤率約為 17%。我們計劃繼續保持強勁的淨生產力，並將貿易支出管理作為重點領域。此外，隨著我們將更多生產轉移到我們新的未來生產線，今年將是供應鏈進行重大改革的另一年。2018 年，我們將反映新的退休金會計規則的影響，該規則有效地將約 5,000 萬美元的未償付收入利潤率移至未償付收入線以下，而不會對收益或現金流量產生影響。這相當於我們調整後的未償付營業利潤率下降了約 20 個基點。

We're expecting to deliver another year of double-digit earnings growth, driven primarily by continued margin expansion as well as JV earnings growth and share repurchases. In addition, I would note our expectations for lower interest expense due to our ongoing efforts to optimize our debt structure.

我們預計今年將再次實現兩位數的獲利成長，主要得益於利潤率的持續擴張、合資企業獲利成長以及股票回購。此外，我還想指出，由於我們不斷努力優化債務結構，預計利息支出將會降低。

Our outlook for free cash flow is approximately $2.8 billion, which now represents a significant step-up from the past 2 years. This outlook does include the additional cash taxes relating to the U.S. tax reform.

我們對自由現金流的預期約為 28 億美元，這比過去兩年有了顯著提高。這項展望確實包含了與美國稅制改革相關的額外現金稅。

Now let me talk briefly about the 2018 impact of the recently enacted U.S. tax reform. As you know, we're a very global company. Our geographic footprint and operating models have given us a low tax rate in the past with most of our earnings generated outside of the U.S. in jurisdictions with significantly lower tax rates. Aside from the 2 one-time items that we recorded in Q4 that I've already discussed, there are several elements of the new law that impact our ongoing overall effective tax rate. The impact of these items on our effective tax rate in 2018 is basically 0 based on what we know now. As you would expect, we're actively reviewing all opportunities to ensure we're structured as efficiently as possible from a tax standpoint.

現在讓我簡單談談最近頒布的美國稅制改革對 2018 年的影響。如您所知，我們是一家全球性公司。由於我們的地理佈局和營運模式，過去我們的稅率一直很低，因為我們的大部分收益都來自美國以外的地區，這些地區的稅率要低得多。除了我在第四季度記錄的 2 項一次性項目（我已經討論過了）之外，新法律還有幾個方面會影響我們持續的整體有效稅率。根據我們目前所了解的情況，這些項目對我們 2018 年實際稅率的影響基本上為 0。正如您所料，我們正在積極審查所有機會，以確保從稅務角度來看，我們的組織結構盡可能有效率。

In this outlook, we expect our 2018 adjusted effective tax rate to be in the low to mid-20s and likely very close to our 2017 rate. We'll provide longer-term guidance on tax when we update our strategy later in the year.

根據這項預測，我們預計 2018 年調整後的實際稅率將在 20% 左右，並且可能與 2017 年的稅率非常接近。我們將在今年稍後更新策略時，提供更長期的稅務指導。

Now let me turn it back to Dirk for a few concluding remarks.

現在，我把麥克風交還給德克，讓他做幾點總結性發言。

Thank you, Brian. So in summary, we have strong foundational pillars in place and we enter the year with momentum in several areas of our business. Our 2018 plan reflects an emphasis on execution, ongoing improvements in top line growth and continued actions to expand our margins. And as we develop our strategic plan for sustainable growth, we focus on how we can optimize and accelerate our strength to create more value for all our stakeholders.

謝謝你，布萊恩。總而言之，我們已經建立了強大的基礎支柱，並且在新的一年裡，我們在多個業務領域都保持著強勁的發展勢頭。我們的 2018 年計畫體現了對執行力的重視，持續改善營收成長，並繼續採取行動擴大利潤率。在製定永續成長策略計畫的過程中，我們將重點放在如何優化和加速發揮自身優勢，為所有利害關係人創造更多價值。

As a leader, my philosophy has always been to set thoughtful goals and deliver against them. And as I look ahead, I am very excited about the opportunities to create value at Mondelez. Similar to my attention to consumers, customers and colleagues, I look forward to engaging with the investment community over the coming months and quarters.

作為領導者，我的理念一直是建立深思熟慮的目標並努力實現它們。展望未來，我對在億滋國際創造價值的機會感到非常興奮。與我專注於消費者、客戶和同事一樣，我期待在接下來的幾個月和幾季與投資界進行交流。

And with that, let's open the line for questions.

那麼，接下來我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Bryan Spillman (sic) [Spillane] with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillman（原文如此）[Spillane]。

So I guess, we've got a few questions this afternoon just related to the guidance. And I think, generally, people are kind of looking at it and kind of looking at the second half organic sales growth that accelerated. And so the guidance sort of implies that maybe that acceleration doesn't continue. And also, maybe even on the operating profit margins, there might have been some expectation there would have been a bit a little bit more. So maybe could you start, Dirk, just talk a little bit philosophically how you think about planning and maybe how conservative or how much flexibility you're trying to put into your plans for maybe things that are unforeseen or things that might go awry?

所以我想，今天下午我們有一些與指導相關的問題。而且我認為，總的來說，人們都在關注下半年加速成長的自然銷售成長。因此，該指導意見似乎暗示，這種加速成長的趨勢可能不會持續下去。而且，或許在營業利益率方面，人們也預期會有更高的預期。那麼，德克，或許你可以先從哲學角度談談你對計劃的看法，以及你在計劃中採取的保守態度或靈活程度，以應對可能出現的意外情況或可能出錯的事情？

Yes, yes, Bryan. Well, first of all, I arrived mid-November. I'm 60 days on board. Secondly, my approach to planning has always been that I try to set very thoughtful targets that I believe we can deliver. So with that, we are saying that we are going to have a top line improvement in 2018 versus 2017. We're saying 1% to 2% top line and expect about 17% adjusted OI margins. It is correct that the categories are growing faster in the fourth quarter. But if you look at the whole of 2017, we had the first half which was pretty low growth and then the second half was a lot better. So we've taken a balanced approach. We don't think we can already bet on the categories accelerating. And we also want to deliver on those margin expansion targets. So that's, overall, what I would say my philosophy is. And I think that maybe, Brian, do you want to add a few things to that?

是的，是的，布萊恩。首先，我是11月中旬到達的。我上船已經60天了。其次，我的規劃方法一直是，我會努力設定經過深思熟慮的目標，我相信我們能夠實現這些目標。因此，我們可以說，2018 年的整體業績將比 2017 年有所提升。我們預期營收成長1%至2%，調整後營業利潤率預計約17%。第四季各類別的成長速度確實更快。但縱觀 2017 年全年，上半年成長較為緩慢，而下半年則好得多。所以我們採取了平衡的方法。我們認為現在就斷言這些類別會加速成長還為時過早。我們也希望實現利潤率擴張目標。所以，總的來說，這就是我的理念。布萊恩，我想你或許想補充幾點吧？

Yes. Bryan, I would just say we're being thoughtful, as Dirk says, and I think careful with the top line. I would admit that there should be some upside. And as we look at the dynamics, we want to see a couple of things. First, North America stabilizing; and second, laying out really these global category trends. They have recently improved, but I'm not sure that it's fully sustainable and we want to see that. If the categories continue to improve, there should be revenue growth that's above what we've talked about here. We feel good about the margin expansion. It's in the range of 70 basis points. There's a good supply chain plan for the year. There would be smaller impacts that we've seen over the last few years in overheads as ZBB and shared services play out and, as you know, an improved commodity and currency environment. So we do have more runway on cost in both COGS and overheads as we look at the plans and we'll work through this as we get through the year. We do want to invest for the long term. So we'll continue to fuel and land investment around white spaces, innovation, renovation of our product portfolio as well as funding appropriate levels of advertising and promotional spend. And then on double-digit EPS, look, we feel good about that too. It's driven by margin expansion. The coffee JVs will continue to contribute. We'll have buybacks obviously and then lower interest expense. So overall, as Dirk said, thoughtful and I'd say a balanced plan.

是的。布萊恩，我只想說，正如德克所說，我們正在深思熟慮，我認為在首輪進攻方面要謹慎。我承認應該會有一些好處。當我們分析這種動態時，我們想看到以下幾點。首先，北美市場趨於穩定；其次，真正展現出這些全球品類趨勢。他們最近有所進步，但我不太確定這種進步是否能夠完全持續，我們希望看到這一點。如果各個品類繼續改善，收入成長應該會高於我們在這裡討論的水平。我們對利潤率的擴張感到滿意。大約在70個基點左右。今年的供應鏈計畫很完善。過去幾年，隨著零基預算和共享服務的實施，我們在管理費用方面看到的影響會較小，而且，如您所知，大宗商品和貨幣環境也有所改善。因此，根據計劃，我們在銷售成本和管理費用方面還有更大的迴旋餘地，我們將在今年逐步解決這個問題。我們確實希望進行長期投資。因此，我們將繼續增加對空白領域、創新、產品組合更新以及適當程度的廣告和促銷支出的投資。至於兩位數的每股盈餘，我們也感到很滿意。這是由利潤率擴張所驅動的。咖啡合資企業將繼續做出貢獻。我們顯然會進行股票回購，然後降低利息支出。總的來說，正如德克所說，這是一個深思熟慮且我認為是平衡的計劃。

That's -- thank you for that perspective. And if I could just have one follow-up. On the margin guidance, is that inclusive of FX? So is there some sort of -- because currency is going to have a much more impact -- be more impactful this year. So I'm just curious, is there any effect from margin -- or from FX in that margin guidance?

謝謝你的見解。如果可以的話，我還有一個後續問題。關於保證金指引，是否包含外匯因素？所以，由於貨幣今年將產生更大的影響，是否會有一些影響？所以我很好奇，保證金或匯率波動是否會對保證金指引產生任何影響？

Yes, there's clearly a benefit for us of a weaker dollar. I'd say, as you look at transactional impacts, we haven't really factored in specific opportunities there. I think we have hedges in place for the majority of our exposures. We're trying to balance that with pricing actions. So I don't see transactionally a big lever in terms of the margins. I think you'll see it in translation. We gave you those numbers for '18. But in general, there will be some benefits associated with currency that flow through margins. But we're not necessarily capturing those in how we build the plan.

是的，美元走弱顯然對我們有利。我認為，從交易影響的角度來看，我們還沒有真正考慮到其中的具體機會。我認為我們已經對大部分風險敞口設置了對沖措施。我們正試圖透過價格策略來平衡這一點。因此，我認為從交易角度來看，利潤率方面並沒有太大的變動空間。我想你會在翻譯中看到這一點。我們已經向你們提供了 2018 年的這些數據。但總的來說，貨幣兌換會帶來一些好處，這些好處會反映在利潤率上。但我們未必能在製定計劃時考慮到這些因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Just following along on the top line guidance for a minute for '18. The global snacking category growth looks like, as you noted in the slides, it accelerated maybe even closer to 3% in the fourth quarter. And so if we take the 1% to 2% organic forecast for '18, I'm trying to get a sense of whether this is just, as you stated, not being certain about how sustainable that better category growth is or is it just suggesting that you see continued market share losses as we move in -- through '18? And the reason I asked is I'm assuming you need a lot less pricing to offset negative foreign exchange. And I was hopeful I guess that, that could lead to a -- more of a stabilization in market shares, particularly in emerging markets.

我先簡單看一下 2018 年的業績指引。正如你在幻燈片中指出的那樣，全球零食品類的成長似乎在第四季度加速，甚至可能接近 3%。因此，如果我們採用 2018 年 1% 到 2% 的有機成長預測，我想了解一下，這是否正如您所說，只是不確定這種更好的品類增長是否可持續，或者只是表明您認為隨著我們進入 2018 年，市場份額將繼續下降？我這麼問是因為我假設你需要大幅降低定價來抵銷外匯負面影響。我當時希望，這可能會導致市場份額，特別是新興市場的市場份額，趨於穩定。

Maybe just, Andrew, I'll reset a little bit the numbers. So snacking is up 2.1%. I see your point, the fourth quarter was a bit better than that. When you look at the total business, it was in the mid-1s, right? So you got the cheese business -- cheese and grocery plus beverages that dragged that down a bit. This is roughly a share -- a flat share plan as we lay it out. And if -- again, if that category growth is better than that, again we would expect to see some upside there.

安德魯，或許我可以稍微調整一下數字。所以零食消費量增加了 2.1%。我明白你的意思，第四節比那節好。從整體業務來看，它的業績在15%左右，對吧？所以，起司生意——起司和雜貨，再加上飲料，多少拖累了整體業績。這大致相當於一份股份——我們採用的是平分股份計劃。而且，如果——再說一遍，如果該類別的成長情況好於此，我們預計會看到一些成長空間。

Okay, okay. And then, just I think you basically intimated in some of your prepared remarks that we should start to see a bit of a better balance in terms of where you get the operating income margin improvement from this year between gross margin and the SG&A line. Is it more a matter of just hopefully not seeing the type of volume deleverage that you've had the last couple of years such that some of the work you're doing around the supply chain footprint and the Lines of the Future and such can just more fully flow through on gross margin? Or are there other things at play there?

好的，好的。然後，我認為您在事先準備好的發言中也暗示，從今年開始，我們應該會看到毛利率和銷售、一般及行政費用之間的平衡有所改善，從而帶來更好的營業利潤率。是不是更希望不會再出現像過去幾年那樣的銷量下滑，這樣你們在供應鏈佈局和未來生產線等方面所做的一些工作就能更充分地轉化為毛利率的增長？或者還有其他因素在起作用？

Leverage will clearly help, Andrew, I think, as we stabilize volumes. They've gotten a bit better. But I'd also say that commodity currency pressures, as we talked about a little bit, are not there. We're not -- as you see cocoa pricing has come down, I mean, we do have other areas where we're seeing commodities up. But net-net, it's not like what we've seen over the last couple of years. So we think that will help. We'll continue to execute on a pretty robust productivity plan for '18, roughly in the range of what we've been seeing over the last couple of years. And we think we'll be able to drop some of that through.

安德魯，我認為，隨著交易量的穩定，槓桿作用顯然會有所幫助。他們的情況好轉了一些。但我也想說，正如我們剛才稍微談到的，大宗商品貨幣壓力並不存在。我們沒有——正如你所看到的，可可價格已經下降，我的意思是，我們確實看到其他一些大宗商品價格上漲。但總的來說，這和我們過去幾年看到的情況不太一樣。所以我們認為這會有幫助。我們將繼續執行 2018 年相當穩健的生產力計劃，大致與我們過去幾年所看到的水平相當。我們認為我們可以把其中一部分送過去。

Your next question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

I guess, my question is on DSD. You talked about your desire to sort of stick with it. But I guess I would ask, why? Just given a few things, right. We have the malware incident I guess exposing some of the unexpected vulnerabilities of the system. Your biggest competitor in U.S. biscuits is probably doing better than some feared. I mean, it's hard to tell exactly how much of that is unique because of your challenges, right. We have the higher cost of transportation and then some of your bigger customers are demanding much better fill rates. They're trying to get trucks out of their parking lots. So I guess I'm curious, where's the evidence that we can see on the outside any way that DSD is really worth the what I guess would be hundreds of basis points to that segment's operating income?

我想，我的問題是關於DSD的。你曾說過你想堅持下去。但我很想問，為什麼？就給了幾樣東西，對吧。我想這次惡意軟體事件暴露了系統的一些意想不到的漏洞。你在美國餅乾市場最大的競爭對手可能比某些人擔心的要好。我的意思是，很難確切地說其中有多少是因為你面臨的挑戰而獨有的，對吧。我們的運輸成本較高，而且你們的一些大客戶要求更高的供貨率。他們正試圖將卡車從停車場趕走。所以我很好奇，從外部來看，有什麼證據顯示DSD真的能為部門的營業收入帶來數百個基點的提升？

Yes. Well, first of all, I'm just arriving -- and to make the decision on DSD is a pretty important decision. And on top, it's difficult to read what exactly is going on with the issues that we've been having. Overall, I think it's a powerful asset for our U.S. biscuits business. And so I do want to take some time to go through this and study and see what the cost-benefit declaration is for -- or keeping it or getting out of it. So it's part of our strategic review. We hope to have clarity near the middle of the year. But from my perspective, at least, it's a bit early to make a decision on that.

是的。首先，我剛到——而決定是否採用 DSD 是一個非常重要的決定。而且，我們很難弄清楚我們遇到的問題到底是怎麼回事。總的來說，我認為這對我們美國的餅乾業務來說是一項強大的資產。因此，我確實想花些時間仔細研究一下，看看成本效益聲明的目的是什麼——是繼續執行還是退出。所以這是我們戰略評估的一部分。我們希望在年中前後能有更清晰的了解。但至少在我看來，現在就此做出決定還為時過早。

Yes, Ken, I would just say, I mean, we, clearly, given the malware incident and then the supply chain challenges that followed that, with the product availability challenges, I mean, we underdelivered here versus what we expected. There's no question. We have seen nice progress in capturing shelf space, increase displays. And in some channels, we've seen share gains. And -- but not to what we expected. We're still tracking it. There's likely some opportunities as the spring shelf resets play out and our case fill rates improve. And we'll see the progress as we work through that over the next few months. But we'll look at this as part of the strategic review, as Dirk said.

是的，肯，我只想說，很明顯，考慮到惡意軟體事件以及隨之而來的供應鏈挑戰和產品供應挑戰，我們在這方面的表現低於預期。毫無疑問。我們在佔據貨架空間和增加展示方面取得了不錯的進展。在某些管道，我們看到了份額的成長。但結果卻出乎我們的意料。我們仍在追蹤此事。隨著春季貨架調整的進行和我們貨物填充率的提高，可能會出現一些機會。在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將逐步推進這項工作，並觀察進展。但正如德克所說，我們會將此作為策略評估的一部分來考慮。

Your next question comes from the line of David Palmer with RBC Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的戴維‧帕爾默。

First, just a follow-up on DSD and the malware issue. I think you said those issues were going to be an ongoing drag through the first half of 2018. Could you just give us some color as to why those fill rates would be such a persistent issue? And maybe any color, and I have a follow-up.

首先，跟進一下DSD和惡意軟體問題。我想你說過，這些問題將會在 2018 年上半年持續拖累我們。能否詳細說明一下，為什麼填充率會一直是個問題？或許任何顏色都可以，我還有後續問題。

David, it's really -- I mean, the malware incident and the specific issues related to that were cleared up as we worked through the -- into the fourth quarter. It's just the supply chain really catching up. We've had some specific products where we were unable to build the inventory levels we needed to, to move through the year-end and the surge of demand we saw. We've seen good overall consumption trends in that business that have put more pressure on the supply chain. And to be honest, we just have to catch up and rebuild some of those stock levels. That's really the priority for us.

戴維，真的——我的意思是，惡意軟體事件以及與之相關的具體問題，在我們進入第四季度後都已解決。只是供應鏈正逐步跟上腳步。我們有一些特定產品，由於庫存不足，無法滿足年底的需求激增。我們看到該行業的整體消費趨勢良好，這給供應鏈帶來了更大的壓力。說實話，我們只需要迎頭趕上，重建庫存水準。這才是我們真正優先考慮的事情。

And then -- and just looking ahead to 2018 and looking back to how your innovation did in 2017, you had some big bets like Véa, the Milka Oreo chocolate in the U.S., Milka chocolate in China, how would you grade the performance of your innovation last year? What product should be building into 2018? And how does your pipeline look for this year?

然後—展望 2018 年，回顧 2017 年您的創新成果，您進行了一些大膽的嘗試，例如 Véa、美國的 Milka Oreo 巧克力、中國的 Milka 巧克力，您如何評價您去年的創新成果？哪些產品應該在 2018 年之前發展？今年你們的銷售通路規劃如何？

Yes, David. I would say, in general, we feel pretty good about it. U.S. chocolate had a very good year. We're pleased with the momentum there. Velocity is good. Repeat rates have been good. Display activity is up. More to do there as we invest and bring some new products to market. Some of the other products that are more renovations and updating of our product lines in North America have also done well. And as expected, Véa is generally in line with expectations. As you know, it's a new brand. It takes a little bit of time to build brand awareness and consumer trial has been an important focus for us. It's highly incremental and I think we feel pretty good about it. But these things take a bit of time to get scale. But in general, the innovation pipeline is pretty good. For '18, continued focus on renovation. There will be some more innovations as we move through the summer across the biscuits portfolio. There will be a couple of things we'll do in gum this year. But continues to be a focus area for us and we're investing to keep the innovation pipeline going.

是的，大衛。總的來說，我覺得我們對此感覺相當不錯。美國巧克力今年表現非常出色。我們對目前的發展動能感到滿意。速度是好事。復購率一直都很好。顯示活動已開啟。隨著我們加強投資並將一些新產品推向市場，那裡還有更多工作要做。北美地區其他一些產品，主要是對我們產品線的改進和更新，也取得了不錯的成績。正如預期的那樣，Véa 總體上符合預期。如您所知，這是一個新品牌。建立品牌知名度需要一些時間，消費者試用一直是我們關注的重點。這是一個循序漸進的過程，我覺得我們對此相當滿意。但這些事情需要一些時間才能達到規模。但總的來說，創新管道相當不錯。2018年，繼續專注於翻新改造。隨著夏季的到來，我們的餅乾產品組合也將推出更多創新產品。今年我們會在口香糖領域做幾件事。但這仍然是我們的重點領域，我們正在投資以保持創新管道的暢通。

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe 一線。

Just had 2 questions if I could. I wanted to understand, in relation to the North American division, do you believe you can grow the margin in that division this year? And related to that, should we expect that the malware sales are, say, fully recovered this year including some of the loss sales or these supply chain issues kind of impede that?

我還有兩個問題想問一下。我想了解的是，就北美賽區而言，您認為今年能否提高該賽區的利潤率？與此相關的是，我們是否應該預期惡意軟體銷售額今年能夠完全恢復，包括一些損失的銷售額，還是說這些供應鏈問題會阻礙這一進程？

Yes. On the first part, Chris, I mean, we continue to have margin opportunity in North America. It was -- we underdelivered on our commitments this year in terms of margin expansion for North America. However, it's still our highest margin business for the year as you look at comparable OI margins across the regions. Malware was the biggest driver, frankly, of some of that execution, not only around the top line but around cost. And it was a distraction to the team as the work in the supply chain had to move off of some of the cost programs and into getting case fill rates back to where they needed to be. We did have negative volume leverage in the year and that was a bit of a pressure. So it's still -- yes, the answer is yes. We'll still see margin expansion in North America. But we have a robust productivity opportunity there. Volume leverage again will help as we get that business back to growth. So yes, I think it's still an opportunity to do better, even in the rates we have today.

是的。克里斯，關於第一部分，我的意思是，我們在北美仍然有利潤空間。確實如此——今年我們在北美地區的利潤率擴張方面未能兌現承諾。然而，從各地區的可比營業利潤率來看，它仍然是我們今年利潤率最高的業務。坦白說，惡意軟體是造成某些專案執行情況的最大驅動因素，不僅影響了收入，也影響了成本。這對團隊來說是一種幹擾，因為供應鏈的工作必須從一些成本控制項目轉移到提高訂單完成率，使其恢復到應有的水準。今年我們的成交量槓桿為負，這給我們帶來了一些壓力。所以答案仍然是——是的，答案是肯定的。我們仍將看到北美地區的利潤率擴張。但我們在那裡擁有巨大的生產力提升空間。再次利用銷售槓桿作用，可以幫助我們使業務恢復成長。所以，是的，我認為即使在目前的利率水平下，我們仍然有機會做得更好。

Okay. And I just had one follow-up, which was, do you expect any SKU rationalization activity of any size? And then also related to the Kraft licenses, going back to Kraft, does that -- what effect did that have on, say, the 1% to 2% sales growth for the year?

好的。我還有一個後續問題，那就是，您是否預期會有任何規模的 SKU 合理化活動？還有一點與卡夫食品的授權有關，回到卡夫食品，這──比如說，這對當年1%到2%的銷售成長產生了什麼影響？

There's really no Kraft license impact in '18. There's a tiny one, it's relatively small later in the year. We're down, as you know, with a couple of the transactions that we've executed. We're down in the range of a little more than $200 million of revenue from these long-term licenses that ultimately go back. The majority of that goes back in the 2020 time frame. And the broader question around SKU rationalization. There's still some of that work going on. I'd say it's a smaller focus now. We've made great progress there and feel pretty good about where we are. We're down in the range of less than 23,000 SKUs. We started over close to 75,000. So not much in the way of impact in the '18 numbers.

2018年卡夫食品的授權許可實際上並沒有造成任何影響。有一個很小的，在一年中的晚些時候規模會比較小。如您所知，我們執行的幾筆交易出現了問題。我們從這些最終會收回的長期許可中獲得的收入略高於 2 億美元。其中大部分可以追溯到 2020 年。以及關於 SKU 合理化的更廣泛的問題。有些工作仍在進行中。我覺得現在這方面的關注度降低了。我們在那方面取得了很大進展，對目前的狀況感到相當滿意。我們的 SKU 數量已經降至 23,000 個以下。我們從接近 75,000 美元開始重新開始。所以，2018 年的數據並沒有產生太大影響。

Your next question comes from the line of Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

I actually have 2. First, and I want to come back and revisit a couple of points made already. First, on North America, and I don't want this to sort of overshadow the momentum you have outside of North America, which obviously matters more. But with the comments in terms of the service level, it's a bit hard to (inaudible) with the retail offtake data that we see, which has looked rather strong. It's hard to understand how retail offtake data would be, so strong if you're not able to fill the shelves. So is this really an out-of-stock situation at retail? Or has the service level effectively resulted in you being destocked? Is that why the retail offtake looks so much better than the sell-in numbers that you have?

我其實有兩點。第一點，我想回頭再談談之前提到的幾個要點。首先，關於北美市場，我不想讓這件事掩蓋你們在北美以外地區的進展，顯然，北美以外地區的進展更為重要。但就服務水準而言，很難（聽不清楚）與我們看到的零售銷售數據相符，而零售銷售數據看起來相當強勁。如果貨架都擺不上貨，零售銷售數據怎麼可能如此強勁呢？所以零售端真的出現缺貨情況了嗎？或者說，服務水準是否實際上導致了您的庫存不足？這就是為什麼零售銷售看起來比你們統計的銷售數據好得多的原因嗎？

Yes, Jason. It's been a bit of a mix. I mean, we've had some specific SKUs where we've had shortages. We've clearly had to do a fair amount of expediting, which is one of the challenges, as I said, in the margins. But as you look at some of the more recent data, I would just say we're catching up in some of that. So again, feeling better. I think it will take a little while to get back completely to normal and we're having to still invest in some cost to expedite. But that's really the story.

是的，傑森。情況有點複雜。我的意思是，我們確實遇到過一些特定SKU的缺貨情況。顯然，我們不得不加快很多進度，正如我所說，這是在細節方面面臨的挑戰之一。但從最近的一些數據來看，我認為我們在某些​​方面正在迎頭趕上。感覺好多了。我認為完全恢復正常還需要一段時間，我們還需要投入一些資金來加快這一進程。但故事的真相就是這樣。

Okay, that's helpful. And I guess you segued into my other question, which is to come back to gross margin. You mentioned that commodities and currency are maybe the biggest swing factors. I was hoping you could put some teeth on that and give us a bead in terms of what commodities may have looked like to you last year in terms of pressure, what you're expecting this year. And then as we try to decompose your margin drivers and bridge us to kind of how we got here, there looks like there's a big mix line kind of leaking out from here. And I guess my question is, A, is that true, and B, is there anything that you think could help us turn that as we pivot into '18? Is gum -- like, do we need gum to turn? Or what are the drivers that could cause abatement of that pressure?

好的，這很有幫助。我想你又引出了我的另一個問題，那就是毛利率。您提到大宗商品和貨幣可能是最大的波動因素。我希望你能具體說明一下，並就去年大宗商品市場面臨的壓力以及你對今年的預期給出一些準確的預測。然後，當我們試圖分解你的利潤驅動因素，並試圖解釋我們是如何走到今天這一步的，看起來好像有一條很大的混合線從這裡洩漏出來。我的問題是，A，這是真的嗎？ B，您認為有什麼可以幫助我們轉變到 2018 年的局面嗎？口香糖－比如，我們需要口香糖才能轉動嗎？或者說，有哪些因素可能導致這種壓力緩解？

Yes. Maybe the second part first. I think, gum is the biggest. I don't think -- it's not a new issue. I mean, we've been fighting that negative trend as you look at the last couple, even probably a couple of years, maybe even longer. So we're planning the business in a way that doesn't expect a miracle to happen on gum. I think as you look at where we're investing and trying to drive mix, we've got a priority focus in the regions around more effectively managing that and making sure we invest to drive improved mix. So yes, I don't expect the environment to change a lot and that dynamic to change. But again, it's something we're counting on as we build the plans. In terms of commodity trends, we all talk about cocoa and the fact that, that's down over the last 6 to 9 months. But as you would expect, we haven't necessarily seen that help given hedging and inventory positions in cocoa. So that will begin to play out really not even in the first quarter, but after that we'll start to see some favorability. That's obviously a discussion with customers. It's a big part of our chocolate dialogue around pricing as we have negotiations. So we won't necessarily pocket all of that. And then, for us, remember that other commodities have moved in the opposite direction. Dairy has been a big headwind for us this year. So both cocoa and dairy were negative and hurt us in 2017. And dairy is even a bigger buy for us now than cocoa. Packaging, transportation are other areas where there's pressure. So I would say in aggregate as you look at '18, I don't see commodity deflation as a net positive. But it's not a big negative. It was a negative in 2017 and we had to price for that, we had to cover that. And we didn't quite do that everywhere.

是的。或許先看第二部分。我認為，口香糖是最大的。我不認為這是一個新問題。我的意思是，縱觀過去幾年，甚至可能更長時間，我們一直在與這種負面趨勢作鬥爭。所以我們制定商業計劃的方式，不指望口香糖能帶來奇蹟。我認為，當我們審視我們的投資方向和努力推動產品組合時，我們會發現，我們在各地區的優先重點是更有效地管理產品組合，並確保我們的投資能夠推動產品組合的改善。所以，是的，我不認為環境會發生太大變化，這種動態也會改變。但這是我們在製定計劃時所指望的。就大宗商品趨勢而言，我們都在談論可可，以及可可價格在過去 6 到 9 個月持續下跌的事實。但正如你所預料的那樣，考慮到可可的避險和庫存狀況，我們並沒有看到這種幫助。所以這種情況甚至不會在第一季就真正開始顯現，但之後我們就會開始看到一些有利因素。這顯然需要和客戶討論。這是我們圍繞巧克力定價展開的討論中非常重要的一部分，因為我們會進行談判。所以我們不一定會把所有這些錢都裝進自己的口袋。此外，我們也要記住，其他商品的價格走勢與此相反。今年，乳製品產業一直是我們面臨的一大阻力。所以可可和乳製品在 2017 年都對我們造成了負面影響。現在，乳製品對我們來說比可可粉還要貴。包裝、運輸也是面臨壓力的領域。所以總的來說，縱觀 2018 年，我不認為大宗商品通貨緊縮是件好事。但這並不是什麼大問題。2017 年這是一個負面影響，我們必須把這一點考慮在內，我們必須彌補這一點。但我們並沒有在所有地方都做到這一點。

Your next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 與 Bernstein 的對話。

Could you give us a quick rundown on progress in the emerging markets, going through maybe the BRIC countries for example? It looks as though it was a nice acceleration in the second half. And I'd just be curious to know where China and India and Russia and Brazil are. And then I have a quick follow-up.

能否簡單介紹一下新興市場的發展情況，例如以金磚國家為例？看起來下半場加速勢頭不錯。我很好奇中國、印度、俄羅斯和巴西在哪裡。然後我還有一個簡短的後續問題。

Okay. Maybe I'll start with Brazil. Brazil has been challenged for us but it's showing some improving dynamics. I was there about 3 weeks ago. The currency, as you probably know, was stabilizing and the GDP has turned positive. So our Q4 revenue growth was mid-single digits, about 5%. In chocolate, the category trends are pretty strong. We had 9% year-to-date. We had some share loss in Q4 because of aggressive pricing from one competitor. And in biscuits, we launched chocobakery with the Lacta and Milka cookies line, so that helped us to recover some of the share. So I would say, in Brazil, we are cautiously optimistic. The GDP growth is improving and the currency is stabilized. There's still some uncertainty in Brazil, I would say. Russia, we are feeling very good about. So it grew sort of mid-single digits in the quarter, 8.4%. The economy is showing clearly signs of progress with falling inflation. Our team is executing well. The year-to-date category growth in biscuits is 7%, it's 5% in chocolates. We are now the #1 player in chocolate. We did launch our chocobakery in Q2 -- Q3, sorry, and we're off to a very strong start. So we're encouraged in Russia because of the signs of the economic improvement and the higher oil prices, better GDP and the ruble strengthening. India, India very strong. We had a 27% growth in Q4, but that's of course lapping the demonetization. Still, we grew double digits without that. And overall for the year, India is up 12%. The category growth for chocolate and biscuits continues to be very strong with double-digit growth for the year. The team, I think, is executing very well. India, I was there 2 weeks ago and we had some good share gain. We gained about 1 point, a full point in chocolate over the past quarter. And so we have very strong performance in Cadbury Dairy Milk, Silk and a bunch of new launches. India, for me, is a very important market for us as the demographics are very strong. We see a growing middle class. We still have a very low per capita consumption of chocolate, about 0.1 kilogram. And the U.S. is 4.5, Germany is 8, the U.K. is 10. So we also see that we have significant room for distribution in the traditional trade and that is something we are actively pursuing. And the GDP growth rates are pretty strong. So overall, very bullish on India. And then China was a little bit off for us in the last years. But they had a solid quarter. They had 1.5% growth. But that was also due to the late timing of the Chinese New Year. I think we will continue to see some good news coming out of China for us. We have a number of opportunities. We launched the Milka magic cup, which is a new offering in our chocolate portfolio. E-commerce is quite big for us. We had a very successful Singles Day and we grew at twice the rate of the market in e-commerce. So the e-commerce was up 30% for us. With respect to -- sorry -- so on China, I would say we are feeling good and I think we will see some acceleration of the growth rate there in the first quarter.

好的。或許我會先從巴西開始。巴西隊一直面臨挑戰，但目前情況正在好轉。我大約三週前去過那裡。正如您可能知道的那樣，貨幣匯率正在趨於穩定，國內生產毛額也已轉正。因此，我們第四季的營收成長為中等個位數，約為 5%。巧克力品類的發展趨勢相當強勁。今年迄今為止，我們的收益率為 9%。由於一家競爭對手採取激進的定價策略，我們在第四季度失去了一些市場份額。在餅乾領域，我們推出了 Lacta 和 Milka 餅乾系列，進軍巧克力烘焙市場，這幫助我們挽回了一些市場份額。所以我覺得，在巴西，我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。國內生產毛額成長正在改善，貨幣匯率趨於穩定。我認為，巴西局勢仍存在一些不確定性。我們對俄羅斯的感覺非常好。因此，該季度實現了中等個位數的成長，為 8.4%。隨著通貨膨脹下降，經濟明顯呈現改善跡象。我們的團隊執行得很好。今年迄今為止，餅乾品類成長了 7%，巧克力類別增加了 5%。我們現在是巧克力產業的領導者。我們的巧克力烘焙坊在第二季（抱歉，應該是第三季）開業了，而且開局非常強勁。因此，俄羅斯經濟出現好轉跡象，油價上漲，GDP成長，盧布走強，這讓我們感到鼓舞。印度，印度非常強大。第四季我們實現了 27% 的成長，但這當然不包括廢鈔令的影響。即便沒有那項措施，我們的成長率也達到了兩位數。今年以來，印度整體經濟成長了 12%。巧克力和餅乾品類的成長動能依然強勁，全年實現了兩位數的成長。我認為，這支球隊執行得非常好。我兩週前去過印度，我們取得了不錯的市佔率成長。過去一個季度，我們在巧克力方面獲得了大約 1 分，也就是整整 1 分。因此，吉百利牛奶巧克力、絲滑巧克力以及一系列新品都取得了非常強勁的業績。對我而言，印度是一個非常重要的市場，因為其人口結構非常強大。我們看到中產階級正在不斷壯大。我們的人均巧克力消費量仍然很低，大約只有 0.1 公斤。美國是 4.5，德國是 8，英國是 10。因此，我們也看到我們在傳統貿易領域還有很大的分銷空間，這也是我們正在積極追求的目標。而且GDP成長率相當強勁。整體而言，我非常看好印度。而近幾年，中國市場對我們來說有點不太友善。但他們本季表現穩健。他們的成長率為1.5%。但這也有一部分原因是因為中國新年時間較晚。我認為我們還會繼續看到一些來自中國的好消息。我們有很多機會。我們推出了Milka魔法杯，這是我們巧克力產品組合中的新產品。電子商務對我們來說非常重要。我們的「雙十一」購物節非常成功，電子商務市場的成長速度是平均值的兩倍。因此，我們的電子商務成長了 30%。至於——抱歉——關於中國，我想說我們感覺良好，我認為第一季中國經濟成長速度將會加快。

Great. And a really super quick follow-up. I was surprised to see a bit of a slowdown in the share repurchase guidance for 2018. Does that mean you're planning to use the cash -- the improvement in free cash flow that you're anticipating this year for something else? Thank you, and I'll pass it on.

偉大的。還有一個非常簡短的後續問題。我對2018年股票回購預期有所放緩感到意外。那是不是意味著你計劃將這筆現金——也就是你預計今年自由現金流的改善——用於其他用途？謝謝，我會轉達的。

Yes, Alexia. We're -- we'll continue to reevaluate that. I mean, we've -- as you know, we did a bit extra in '17. It was driven by the availability of cash from some of the divestitures that we did. We'll continue to look at it over the course of the year. And as you know, we've done more than we would have said in the outlooks for the last few years. So...

是的，阿萊克西亞。我們會繼續重新評估這一點。我的意思是，正如你所知，我們在 2017 年做了一些額外的工作。這是由於我們剝離了一些資產後所獲得的現金所致。我們將在今年持續關注此事。如您所知，過去幾年我們實際取得的成就遠遠超出我們在展望報告中所預測的。所以...

Your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citi.

你的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 David Driscoll。

Great. I wanted just to -- Brian, just a quick follow-up on the inflation execution for '18. I apologize, did you say '18 would be deflationary in aggregate for your basket of inputs?

偉大的。我只想——布萊恩，就 2018 年的通貨膨脹執行做一個簡短的後續說明。抱歉，您剛才說的是，就您的一系列投入而言，2018 年總體上會是通貨緊縮的一年嗎？

You know what, I'd say it's about flat, David. There's puts and takes. Cocoa is obviously going to help. Dairy is still up, packaging is up, transportation is up. When you put it all together, it's about flat.

你知道嗎，我覺得它差不多是平的，大衛。有付出也有收穫。可可粉顯然會有幫助。乳製品需求依然旺盛，包裝需求依然旺盛，運送需求依然旺盛。把所有零件組裝起來，它基本上是扁平的。

Okay, perfect. That leads into kind of the bigger picture question on your revenue guidance and pricing. So in years past, 2014, 2015, you guys are hit with very heavy foreign exchange headwinds. And as a result, we saw a lot of pricing from the company in various markets when there was a lot of foreign exchange headwinds. If 2018 is going to have foreign exchange tailwinds, and if there's really not much in the way of commodity inflation, what does pricing do? Is pricing actually down in 2018? How do you guys think about it?

好的，完美。這就引出了一個更宏觀的問題，就是你們的收入預期和定價。所以在過去幾年，例如 2014 年和 2015 年，你們都受到了非常嚴重的外匯逆風影響。因此，當外匯市場面臨許多不利因素時，我們看到該公司在各個市場進行了大量定價調整。如果 2018 年外匯市場有利，而且大宗商品通膨真的不大，那麼價格會如何變化？2018年價格真的下降了嗎？你們怎麼看？

Yes, I -- over the last, I'd say, 5 or 6 quarters, David, it's been more about pricing has been driven by the hyperinflationary emerging markets. And I'd say developing -- or developed markets for us, pricing net-net has been relatively benign. It's been relatively flat. And there are places where we put some more promotional spend or trade spend in play and we've talked about that from time to time. But as you say, commodities and currency in those markets have been relatively uneventful and then pricing has been relatively flattish. So I expect more of that. I think we'll see pricing, in general, be positive. But it's driven by hyperinflation as we look at '18.

是的，在過去的五、六個季度裡，David，價格更像是由新興市場的惡性通貨膨脹所驅動的。而且我認為，就我們而言，發展中市場（或已開發市場）的淨價相對較為溫和。地勢相對平坦。有些地方我們會增加一些促銷支出或貿易支出，我們也時不時討論過這個問題。但正如你所說，這些市場的商品和貨幣市場相對平靜，價格也相對穩定。所以我希望以後還能看到更多這樣的情況。我認為總體而言，價格走勢將向好。但從 2018 年的情況來看，這是由惡性通貨膨脹所驅動的。

Okay. And then one last one for me. Originally, Brian, I believe the guidance for the 2018 operating margin was a range of between 17% and 18%. You're giving us the 17% number today. But maybe, could you just kind of give us some thoughts as to why the top end of the range that you guys had set out some time ago why that's not really achievable in 2018? And I'm not trying to push too hard on this. I'm just trying to get a sense as to what's going on the gross margin, volume leverage, those kinds of factors as the game has actually been played out, kind of what influenced it so much to come down to the 17% level.

好的。最後，我還要再來一個。布萊恩，我記得最初對 2018 年營業利潤率的預期是在 17% 到 18% 之間。今天你給的數字是17%。但是，您能否稍微解釋一下，為什麼你們之前設定的最高目標在 2018 年無法實現？我並不是想在這件事上施加太大壓力。我只是想了解毛利率、銷售槓桿等因素在實際比賽過程中究竟發生了什麼，是什麼因素導致毛利率下降到 17% 的水平。

Yes, David. I would just say continued to try to strike a balance, making sure we're making appropriate investments in the business around growth. At the same time, we have the headwind associated with the pension accounting change. We also have the headwind that volume growth and leverage in the P&L has not been as good as we would expect with slower category growth. So again, with the progress that we've made with another approximately 70 basis points of margin expansion, while we invest to get more balance in the P&L and drive some top line improvement, I think we feel like that's exactly the right plan for where we are.

是的，大衛。我只想說，我們將繼續努力尋求平衡，確保我們在業務成長方面進行適當的投資。同時，我們也面臨退休金會計制度改革帶來的不利影響。我們也面臨銷售成長和損益表中的槓桿作用不如預期（因為品類成長放緩）的不利因素。所以，鑑於我們已取得進展，利潤率又提高了約 70 個基點，同時我們也在投資以平衡損益表並推動營收成長，我認為這正是我們目前所處的正確計劃。

Your next question comes from the line of Rob Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅布莫斯科。

Brian, just a couple of quick things. Did you lower the operating margin kind of run rate going backwards also? I looked at your fourth quarter presentation a year ago and everything is 30 basis points lower. Is that because of the pension accounting change only? Or is there something there related to divestitures too? And then secondly, a question on free cash flow. I think you said that there was some year-end kind of positioning by customers that hurt your year-end cash flow. But shouldn't that help you in 2018 when that cash comes back to you? And if so, did you consider raising your guidance for free cash flow above $2.8 billion? Because I guess you've had $2.8 billion before and now it's still $2.8 billion. Sorry for the length there.

布萊恩，有幾件事要跟你說。你們的營業利益率之類的指標是否也隨之下降了？我看過你們一年前的第四季業績報告，所有數據都比現在低了30個基點。只是因為退休金會計制度的改變嗎？或者，這其中是否也與資產剝離有關？其次，還有一個關於自由現金流的問題。我想你說過，客戶在年底的一些搶購行為影響了你們的年末現金流。但到了 2018 年，當這筆錢回到你手中時，難道不會對你有幫助嗎？如果真是如此，您是否考慮過將自由現金流預期提高到 28 億美元以上？因為我猜你之前有28億美元，現在它仍然是28億美元。抱歉篇幅有點長。

Yes, I'd say on cash flow, you're right. Clearly, there is some timing. We had collections that really were due on the 30th and 31st of December, which was a Saturday and Sunday, and the majority of that showed up in the next week. So we should have a good start and I can validate that we've seen that cash come in. The reality is we've got an incremental cash tax payment related to the U.S. tax reform that partially offsets that. We've got another one-time VAT-related tax payment that we have to take. So net-net, I think it puts us about at the $2.8 billion, and we feel good with that number. Your first question related to the backward-looking OI margin. And the one thing I would call out we did have is the divestitures, which had about a 20 basis point impact in the margin rates if you take that back and adjust for that. So that's the only...

是的，就現金流而言，你說得對。顯然，這其中存在著一定的時機。我們有一些款項原本應該在 12 月 30 日和 31 日（星期六和星期日）到期，但大部分款項在接下來的一周內都收到了。所以我們應該會有一個好的開端，我可以證實我們已經看到資金到帳了。實際情況是，由於美國稅制改革，我們需要額外繳納一筆現金稅款，這在一定程度上抵消了上述損失。我們還有一筆與增值稅相關的單次稅款需要繳交。所以總的來說，我認為我們的金額大約在 28 億美元左右，我們對這個數字感到滿意。你的第一個問題與回顧性未償付餘額利潤率有關。我要特別指出的一點是，我們確實進行了資產剝離，如果把這部分收益考慮進去並進行調整，會對利潤率產生大約 20 個基點的影響。所以只有這一個…

So ex those 2 things, you would been at 17.5% here for 2018, I guess.

所以，撇開這兩件事不談，我猜你2018年的收入應該是17.5%。

That's right. I mean, 17.4%, 17.5%. Yes, that's right.

這是正確的。我的意思是，17.4%，17.5%。是的，沒錯。

And we have time for our final question. Our final question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.

我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。最後一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬修‧格蘭傑。

Great. I guess, first question, Brian, could you elaborate a bit more on the benefit you expect from better utilizing the Lines of the Future and sort of where we are in the process? Are we just right now at the point of seeing some early improvement in category trends and being able to get better utilization rates there? And at what point would you actually be in a position to start thinking about reaccelerating some of the deferred CapEx that you might have put on hold previously?

偉大的。我想，第一個問題，布萊恩，你能否詳細說明一下，你期望更好地利用未來線路能帶來哪些好處，以及我們目前在這個過程中處於什麼階段？我們現在是不是正處於品類趨勢出現早期改善並且能夠獲得更高利用率的階段？那麼，您究竟要到什麼時候才能開始考慮重新啟動之前可能擱置的一些延期資本支出項目呢？

Yes, I think we've made good progress. We've talked about getting to 70% of our volumes for Power Brands on advantage assets. We're in the range of about 60% now as we exit '17 and then '18 is we'll continue to make progress towards that goal. It really is the key for us is getting the volume leverage on those lines. And that comes from growing the business obviously. And we've got some volume growth that we're starting to see in some parts of the business. And then we'll continue to take actions across the supply chain to move more production from other lines onto those Lines of the Future. And that will be a focus that plays out. And I mentioned the fact that it continues to be -- '18 will be a year where we have some significant supply chain actions to do that, moving more production there. So still a lot of runway in terms of capacity on those Lines of the Future and that will create nice net productivity. That's one of the drivers of net productivity in 2018 that I talked about.

是的，我認為我們取得了不錯的進展。我們已經討論過，要讓強勢品牌70%的銷售來自優勢資產。2017 年即將結束，我們目前的完成率約為 60%，2018 年我們將繼續朝著這個目標取得進展。對我們來說，關鍵在於如何獲得這些產品線的銷售優勢。這顯然來自於業務的成長。我們已經開始看到公司部分業務的銷售成長。然後我們將繼續在整個供應鏈中採取行動，將其他生產線上的更多生產轉移到未來生產線上。這將是需要重點關注的問題。我還提到，2018 年我們將採取一些重要的供應鏈行動來實現這一目標，將更多生產轉移到那裡。因此，未來線路的運能仍有很大的提升空間，這將創造良好的淨生產力。這就是我之前提到的2018年淨生產力成長的驅動因素之一。

Okay, great, thanks, Brian. And Dirk, I guess, just a high-level question about reinvestment. I know you want to make sure that the company is taking full advantage of its differentiated position in emerging markets and the scale of the business there and sort of reaching your full potential from a top line perspective. Given some of the service issues in North America and the need to continue to stabilize that business, is this a year where we may continue to see a bit more of the near-term reinvestment flowing back into developed markets than may ultimately be the case once we get through your initial assessment and the multiyear strategic plan that we'll hear about later in the year?

好的，太好了，謝謝你，布萊恩。德克，我想問一個關於再投資的高層次問題。我知道你想確保公司充分利用其在新興市場的差異化地位和業務規模，並從營收角度充分發揮其潛力。鑑於北美的一些服務問題以及需要繼續穩定該業務，今年我們是否會看到更多短期再投資流回發達市場，而最終情況可能會有所不同，尤其是在我們完成初步評估並了解我們將在今年晚些時候聽到的多年戰略計劃之後？

I would say that, certainly, we'll have a look at it. We'll need to see how much leeway we have to do that because we do have to stabilize our North America situation first, and that's priority #1. We are going through an analysis where we are looking at what we think the opportunities are that we have in emerging markets and how we could capture those, what type of investments would it need. We're trying to do that as fast as we can. But if anything, I wouldn't expect us to make big moves in the beginning of the year here. Maybe towards the end, we will have more clarity on what is possible for us.

我當然會考慮一下。我們需要看看我們有多少迴旋餘地來做到這一點，因為我們首先必須穩定北美局勢，這是頭等大事。我們正在進行一項分析，旨在了解我們在新興市場擁有哪些機會，以及我們如何抓住這些機會，這需要哪些類型的投資。我們正在盡最大努力盡快完成這項工作。但無論如何，我預期我們在年初不會採取什麼重大措施。或許到了最後，我們會更清楚地體認到自己能做到什麼。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。