億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Mondelez International Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加億滋國際2017年第二季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時,包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。(操作說明)

  • I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

    現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續,先生。

  • Shep Dunlap

    Shep Dunlap

  • Good morning, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO; and Brian Gladden, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out 2 press releases and presentation slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com/investors.

    早安,感謝各位的收看。今天陪我一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長艾琳·羅森菲爾德,以及我們的財務長布萊恩·格拉登。今天早些時候,我們發布了 2 份新聞稿和演示文稿,可在我們的網站 mondelezinternational.com/investors 上查看。

  • During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。

  • These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

    這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素,實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情,請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

  • Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise noted. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

    今天準備的發言稿中部分內容涉及非GAAP財務指標。除非另有說明,今天我們將使用非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

  • And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Irene.

    接下來,我將把電話交給艾琳。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Shep, and good morning. By now, I'm sure you've seen our 2 press releases, and you're all Googling furiously.

    謝謝你,謝普,早安。我相信你們現在都已經看過我們的兩份新聞稿了,而且都在瘋狂地用谷歌搜尋相關資訊。

  • So before we discuss our second quarter results, let me take a few minutes to talk about my decision to retire and our plans for CEO succession. In 2006, when I became CEO of Kraft Foods, it was about to become an independent publicly traded company. We were a U.S.-centric conglomerate with a vast portfolio of undersupported brands in a wide variety of categories.

    因此,在我們討論第二季業績之前,請允許我花幾分鐘時間談談我退休的決定以及我們關於執行長繼任的計劃。2006 年,當我成為卡夫食品的執行長時,它即將成為一家獨立的上市公司。我們是一家以美國為中心的集團公司,旗下擁有許多在各個品類中缺乏足夠支持的品牌。

  • Over the last decade, we took a number of bold actions to create today's Mondelez International. Most notably, the acquisition of Cadbury; the spin-off of our North American grocery business, which created the new Kraft; and the creation of the world's largest pure-play coffee company. As a result, we're now the leading snacking company in the world with 85% of our net revenue coming from snacks, market-leading positions in each of our categories and more than 70% of our revenue coming from profitable Power Brands, a presence in over 165 countries and nearly 40% of our sales in faster-growing emerging markets.

    過去十年間,我們採取了一系列大膽的舉措,打造了今日的億滋國際。其中最值得一提的是收購吉百利;分拆北美雜貨業務,因此誕生了新的卡夫;以及創造了全球最大的純咖啡公司。因此,我們現在是全球領先的零食公司,85% 的淨收入來自零食,在每個品類中都處於市場領先地位,超過 70% 的收入來自盈利的強勢品牌,業務遍及 165 多個國家,近 40% 的銷售額來自快速增長的新興市場。

  • Importantly, over that time, we enabled the creation of tremendous value for our shareholders, including over $120 billion through share price appreciation and dividends and total shareholder returns that have significantly outperformed our peers.

    重要的是,在此期間,我們為股東創造了巨大的價值,包括透過股價上漲和股息支付的超過 1,200 億美元,以及遠超同業的總股東回報。

  • It has been the honor of a lifetime to serve as Chairman and CEO of this great company. I truly enjoyed working alongside my colleagues around the world to achieve our bold ambitions and create value for our shareholders.

    能夠擔任這家偉大公司的董事長兼首席執行官,是我畢生的榮幸。我非常享受與世界各地的同事們一起努力,實現我們遠大的目標,並為我們的股東創造價值。

  • As I announce my retirement today, let me emphasize that I've never been more confident in our plans and in our momentum as I prepare to turn the reins over to my successor, Dirk Van de Put, currently President and CEO of McCain Foods. Over the past few years, our board has been engaged in a thorough multiyear succession planning process. This included a comprehensive global process that considered numerous highly talented internal and external candidates. I'm very pleased with the process that resulted in the choice of Dirk. We're confident that we found the right leader to steer our company to the next stage of our journey to sustainable growth.

    今天我宣布退休,同時我想強調的是,我對我們的計劃和發展勢頭從未像現在這樣充滿信心,我準備將領導權移交給我的繼任者,現任 McCain Foods 總裁兼首席執行官 Dirk Van de Put。過去幾年,我們的董事會一直致力於開展一項全面的多年繼任計畫。這包括一個全面的全球招募流程,其中考慮了眾多才華橫溢的內部和外部候選人。我對最終選擇德克的過程非常滿意。我們相信,我們找到了合適的領導者,能夠帶領公司邁向永續發展的下一個階段。

  • Dirk is a truly global executive, a seasoned CEO, who's had deep experience in the food and beverage industry at leading CPG companies with presence in emerging and developed markets. He's lived and worked on 3 continents and has proven his ability to drive growth on both the top and bottom lines. Under Dirk's leadership since 2011, McCain Foods has grown net sales by more than 50%, 3/4 of which was organic, and EBITDA has grown double digits for each of the past 6 years. Importantly, he achieved these strong results with a values-based leadership style and a steadfast focus on people.

    Dirk 是一位真正的全球高管,一位經驗豐富的首席執行官,在食品和飲料行業擁有豐富的經驗,曾在新興市場和發達市場的領先消費品公司任職。他曾在三大洲生活和工作,並已證明自己有能力推動公司營收和利潤的成長。自 2011 年 Dirk 領導以來,McCain Foods 的淨銷售額增長超過 50%,其中 3/4 為有機增長,過去 6 年的 EBITDA 每年都實現了兩位數的增長。重要的是,他憑藉著以價值觀為導向的領導風格和對人的堅定關注,取得了這些顯著的成果。

  • We look forward to his bringing this experience and a fresh set of eyes to build on our margin progress and accelerate our growth. I have no doubt that Dirk, together with our strong leadership team, will continue to achieve even greater success in the years ahead. And of course, I'll be cheering loudly from the sidelines as a sizable shareholder. Dirk will become CEO effective in November, and I look forward to continuing to serve as Chairman of our board until the end of the first quarter next year to ensure a smooth transition.

    我們期待他能帶來豐富的經驗和全新的視角,以鞏固我們的利潤成長並加速發展。我毫不懷疑,在德克及其強大的領導團隊的帶領下,未來幾年我們將繼續取得更大的成功。當然,身為大股東,我會在場邊大聲歡呼。Dirk 將於 11 月正式就任首席執行官,我期待繼續擔任董事會主席至明年第一季末,以確保平穩過渡。

  • With that context, let me thank all of you for your support and commitment to our company over these many years. Brian and I look forward to introducing you to Dirk as he comes on board.

    在此背景下,我謹感謝各位多年來對我們公司的支持與付出。Brian 和我期待在 Dirk 加入我們後向大家介紹他。

  • So now, let's talk about our second quarter. It's difficult to discuss our Q2 results without first saying a few words about the malware incident of June 27. Despite tremendous efforts by our teams to continue to operate the business, manufacture our products and serve customer needs, given the timing of the attack, we experienced meaningful disruption in our ability to ship and invoice during the last 4 days of the quarter.

    那麼現在,我們來談談第二季的情況。在討論我們第二季業績之前,必須先談談 6 月 27 日發生的惡意軟體事件。儘管我們的團隊付出了巨大的努力來維持業務運營、生產產品並滿足客戶需求,但鑑於攻擊發生的時機,我們在本季度最後 4 天的發貨和開票能力受到了嚴重影響。

  • As a result, our Q2 organic net revenue growth was negatively affected by approximately 2.4 percentage points, slightly less than what we estimated in our July 6 press release. While we're not yet back to normal, we expect to recover the majority of these delayed shipments in the third quarter. Brian will discuss this in more detail in a few minutes. Despite this unfortunate incident, our underlying performance in Q2 was largely in line with our expectations. Excluding the impact of the malware incident and the India goods and services tax, organic net revenue would have been roughly flat, and 3 of our 4 regions performed well.

    因此,我們第二季的有機淨收入成長受到約 2.4 個百分點的負面影響,略低於我們在 7 月 6 日新聞稿中的估計。雖然我們尚未恢復正常,但我們預計將在第三季恢復大部分延遲出貨。布萊恩稍後會更詳細地討論這個問題。儘管發生了這起不幸事件,但我們第二季的基本業績基本上符合預期。如果排除惡意軟體事件和印度商品和服務稅的影響,有機淨收入將大致持平,我們 4 個區域中有 3 個區域表現良好。

  • On the bottom line, despite the impact of the malware incident, we continue to deliver strong adjusted operating income margin expansion and double-digit adjusted EPS growth at constant currency. What's more, we feel especially good about our strong and growing cash flow, which enables us to fully fund our growth initiatives and deliver compelling capital returns. In the second quarter, we returned approximately $900 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases.

    總而言之,儘管受到惡意軟體事件的影響,我們仍然實現了強勁的調整後營業利潤率成長和兩位數的調整後每股盈餘成長(以固定匯率計算)。此外,我們對強勁且不斷增長的現金流感到非常滿意,這使我們能夠為成長計畫提供充足的資金,並帶來可觀的資本回報。第二季度,我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了約 9 億美元。

  • In addition, we announced today that our board has increased the quarterly dividend by 16%, reflecting the strength of our business and our improving free cash flow. Going forward, we're now planning to grow our dividend in excess of adjusted EPS growth.

    此外,我們今天宣布,董事會已將季度股息提高 16%,這反映了我們業務的強勁勢頭和不斷改善的自由現金流。展望未來,我們計劃將股息成長速度提高到超過調整後每股盈餘的成長速度。

  • While Brian will provide details on our performance by region, I'd like to say a few words about North America, which continue to be challenged. As we discussed last quarter, we're actively working to improve the trajectory of our U.S. business, and the team is executing with a sense of urgency.

    布萊恩將詳細介紹我們各地區的業績,而我想就北美地區談幾句,該地區仍然面臨挑戰。正如我們上個季度討論的那樣,我們正在積極努力改善我們美國業務的發展軌跡,團隊正在以緊迫感執行這項工作。

  • While the Q2 numbers were soft, we are seeing some green shoots, which give us confidence that we'll see improvement in the back half. In particular, we're optimistic about our robust pipeline of well-being innovation and core brand renovation, our white space chocolate expansion and gains in displays and shelf space as we capitalize on our competitor's transition out of its DSD network.

    雖然第二季業績疲軟,但我們看到了一些復甦的跡象,這讓我們有信心下半年業績會有所改善。尤其值得一提的是,我們對自身強大的健康創新產品線和核心品牌革新、巧克力產品線的擴張以及在展示和貨架空間方面的增長充滿信心,因為我們正利用競爭對手退出其直接送貨網絡的機會。

  • So in summary, our underlying performance in the first half came in largely as expected, and we continue to expect improved top line growth as we progress through the second half. As a result, we've maintained our full year outlook.

    總而言之,我們上半年的基本業績基本上符合預期,我們預計隨著下半年的推進,營收成長將持續改善。因此,我們維持了全年業績預期。

  • Let me now turn it over to Brian to discuss our Q2 performance in more detail.

    現在我把發言權交給布萊恩,讓他更詳細地討論我們第二季的表現。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Thanks, Irene, and good morning.

    謝謝你,艾琳,早安。

  • Before I get into the quarter, let me provide more details on the malware incident and where we currently stand in our recovery.

    在正式開始本季內容之前,讓我先詳細介紹一下惡意軟體事件以及我們目前的復原情況。

  • On June 27, like many other companies, we were globally impacted by an unprecedented malware incident. For the last 4 days of the quarter and into the third quarter, we had limited ability to ship and invoice customers in many markets. Thankfully, our teams managed to keep many of our manufacturing facilities running, which was a critical accomplishment.

    6月27日,和許多其他公司一樣,我們受到了前所未有的惡意軟體事件的全球性影響。在本季的最後 4 天以及第三季初期,我們在許多市場出貨和向客戶開立發票的能力有限。值得慶幸的是,我們的團隊成功地維持了許多製造工廠的運轉,這是一項至關重要的成就。

  • We executed our business continuity and contingency plans to make -- to contain the impact of the incident and minimize business disruption with a focus on consumers and customers. Over the past 4 weeks, we've worked tirelessly to restore our systems and recover from the disruption.

    我們執行了業務連續性和應急計劃,以控制事件的影響,最大限度地減少業務中斷,並專注於消費者和客戶。在過去的 4 周里,我們不懈地努力恢復系統,從中斷中恢復過來。

  • Although we've now restored the majority of our affected systems, in a few cases, parts of our supply chain have still not fully recovered, and we anticipate some impacts in our third quarter. We'll also incur some additional onetime costs related to the incident during the second half.

    雖然我們目前已恢復了大部分受影響的系統,但在少數情況下,我們的部分供應鏈仍未完全恢復,我們預計第三季會受到一些影響。下半年,我們還將因該事件產生一些額外的一次性費用。

  • In terms of our results, the malware incident had a negative impact of approximately 240 basis points to organic net revenue or about $140 million. We expect to recover a majority of the delayed second quarter shipments in our third quarter, and we've made good progress in shipping these orders during the month of July.

    就我們的業績而言,惡意軟體事件對有機淨收入產生了約 240 個基點的負面影響,相當於約 1.4 億美元。我們預計在第三季能夠恢復第二季大部分延遲出貨,並且在7月出貨方面取得了良好進展。

  • We did, however, permanently lose some revenue due to shorter supply chains, missed promotions and lost consumption in some markets. That said, we do not believe the incident has had any long-term impact to our customer relationships or market share.

    然而,由於供應鏈縮短、錯失促銷機會以及某些市場消費下降,我們確實永久損失了一些收入。儘管如此,我們認為該事件並未對我們的客戶關係或市場佔有率造成任何長期影響。

  • We're pleased with our execution during this crisis and believe that our business continuity plans were effective in minimizing the impact to our customers and to our ongoing financial results. As you can imagine, we're conducting a comprehensive review of the incident to determine any potential opportunities to further improve the security of our global systems environment. Currently, we do not expect the required investments to be material to our results.

    我們對此次危機期間的執行情況感到滿意,並相信我們的業務連續性計劃有效地最大限度地減少了對客戶和我們持續財務業績的影響。正如您所想,我們正在對該事件進行全面審查,以確定是否有任何潛在機會進一步提高我們全球系統環境的安全性。目前,我們預計所需的投資不會對我們的業績產生重大影響。

  • This event has underscored the resiliency of our team and their ability to pull together in the face of adversity. I'd like to thank our teams for their tireless efforts to put us back on track and ensure that we're focused most importantly on our customers and consumers.

    這次事件凸顯了我們團隊的韌性以及他們在逆境中團結一致的能力。我要感謝我們的團隊為使我們重回正軌、確保我們始終將客戶和消費者放在首位而付出的不懈努力。

  • As Irene stated, our second quarter results were largely in line with our expectations, absent the malware incident and the transition impact of the India GST, which were a combined headwind of 260 basis points to our top line growth. Excluding these items, our organic net revenue growth would have been essentially flat.

    正如艾琳所說,如果不是因為惡意軟體事件和印度商品及服務稅的過渡影響,我們第二季度的業績基本上符合預期,這兩項因素加起來對我們的營收成長造成了 260 個基點的不利影響。剔除這些項目後,我們的有機淨收入成長將基本持平。

  • The impact of these incidents masked solid results in a number of areas. For instance, our global e-commerce net revenues continued to grow strongly, up 30%. In Europe, we executed well overall and especially in our chocolate business. And several of our emerging markets are stabilizing and having improving macro outlook. We're delivering solid results in countries such as India, Vietnam and Mexico, where market fundamentals are improving and our momentum is strong.

    這些事件的影響掩蓋了許多領域的顯著成果。例如,我們的全球電子商務淨收入持續強勁成長,成長了 30%。在歐洲,我們整體表現良好,尤其是在巧克力業務方面。我們的一些新興市場正在企穩,宏觀經濟前景正在改善。我們在印度、越南和墨西哥等市場基本面不斷改善、發展勢頭強勁的國家取得了穩健的表現。

  • Now let's take a closer look at our margin performance. Q2 marked another quarter of strong adjusted OI margin expansion as we continued to aggressively reduce costs. Adjusted OI margin was 15.8%, up 90 basis points. Our progress was driven by improved SG&A as we continued to execute our zero-based budgeting program, which delivered cost reductions in both overheads and advertising spend. We expect our advertising and consumer promotion spending will be about flat for the total year as we move some spending to the second half.

    現在讓我們仔細看看我們的利潤率表現。第二季度,隨著我們持續積極降低成本,調整後的營業利潤率再次強勁成長。調整後的未償付餘額利潤率為 15.8%,上升 90 個基點。我們所取得的進展得益於銷售、一般及行政費用的改善,因為我們繼續執行零基預算計劃,從而降低了管理費用和廣告支出。我們預計全年廣告和消費者促銷支出將基本持平,因為我們將部分支出轉移到了下半年。

  • Adjusted gross margin decreased 10 basis points as continued solid net productivity and better pricing were offset by unfavorable mix and higher input costs, especially in dairy. We continue to see gross margin improvements as the key enabler to delivering our 2018 margin expansion commitments.

    調整後的毛利率下降了 10 個基點,原因是持續穩健的淨生產率和更好的定價被不利的產品組合和更高的投入成本(尤其是在乳製品方面)所抵消。我們持續認為毛利率的提高是實現 2018 年毛利率擴張承諾的關鍵推動因素。

  • For the first half, adjusted OI margin was 16.3%, and we remain on track to deliver our mid-16% outlook for the year. I do want to note that we decided to adjust out the incremental costs associated with the malware incident in the quarter, representing about $7 million. As I said, we will incur additional onetime costs in the second half as well but do not expect them to be material at this point.

    上半年調整後的未償付收入利潤率為 16.3%,我們仍有望實現全年約 16% 的預期目標。我想指出的是,我們決定在本季調整與惡意軟體事件相關的額外成本,金額約為 700 萬美元。正如我所說,下半年我們還會產生一些額外的一次性費用,但目前來看,預計這些費用不會很大。

  • Let me now turn to our regional performance. We continue to see solid trends underlying the results in 3 of our 4 regions. Europe posted another strong quarter of margin expansion with an increase in adjusted OI margin of 220 basis points to 19%. Strong net productivity, lower A&C costs and continued overhead reductions drove the improvement. Organic net revenue declined 0.7%, including a negative impact of 220 basis points due to the malware incident.

    現在讓我來談談我們區域賽的表現。在我們4個區域中的3個區域中,我們持續看到穩健的趨勢支撐著績效。歐洲本季利潤率再次強勁擴張,調整後的營業利潤率成長 220 個基點至 19%。強勁的淨生產力、較低的A&C成本和持續的管理費用削減推動了這一改善。有機淨收入下降 0.7%,其中包括惡意軟體事件造成的 220 個基點的負面影響。

  • Despite this impact, Europe delivered solid vol/mix growth in both chocolate and biscuits, and our chocolate business performance was led by Germany and Russia. Our Europe business continues to demonstrate solid operating performance, and we remain encouraged by additional growth opportunities, including in chocobakery and chocolate seasonals.

    儘管受到這種影響,歐洲的巧克力和餅乾銷售/產品組合均實現了穩健成長,而我們的巧克力業務表現主要由德國和俄羅斯引領。我們的歐洲業務持續展現穩健的經營業績,我們對包括巧克力烘焙和巧克力季節性產品在內的其他成長機會感到鼓舞。

  • In our large and diverse AMEA region, we continue to navigate through a mixed environment. Our Asia Pacific business delivered solid results while some of our markets in the Middle East continue to be challenged. Adjusted OI margin increased 230 basis points to 15.6%, driven primarily by lower A&C spend, continued overhead management and a property insurance recovery.

    在我們幅員遼闊、文化多元的AMEA地區,我們將繼續在複雜的環境中前進。我們的亞太業務取得了穩健的業績,而我們在中東的一些市場仍然面臨挑戰。調整後的營業利潤率增加了 230 個基點,達到 15.6%,主要原因是建築和施工支出減少、持續的間接費用管理以及財產保險的賠償。

  • In markets like the Middle East, we've selectively trimmed A&C spending where returns have been challenged. Organic revenue declined 0.7%, including a negative impact of 90 basis points from the transition impact of the India GST and the malware incident. Despite those impacts, we delivered strong results in India and South East Asia.

    在中東等市場,由於投資報酬率受到挑戰,我們有選擇地削減了廣告和廣告支出。有機收入下降 0.7%,其中包括印度商品及服務稅過渡期影響和惡意軟體事件帶來的 90 個基點的負面影響。儘管受到這些影響,我們在印度和東南亞地區仍然取得了強勁的業績。

  • Our India business grew mid-single digits despite the impact from GST. Excluding this headwind, growth would have been double digit. Chocolate continued to be strong as we executed our plans, and the overall market conditions remained good.

    儘管受到商品及服務稅 (GST) 的影響,我們在印度的業務仍實現了中等個位數的成長。如果不考慮此不利因素,成長率本應達到兩位數。在我們執行計劃的過程中,巧克力市場表現依然強勁,整體市場狀況也保持良好。

  • China posted a small decline, driven primarily by soft category trends. Our Gum business continue to grow and take share, and Milk and Chocolate performed in line with our expectations. We expect our biscuit business trajectory to improve as we relaunch Oreo this summer with both improved packaging and a new product formula.

    中國市場小幅下滑,主要受疲軟品類趨勢的影響。我們的口香糖業務持續成長並擴大市場份額,牛奶巧克力業務的表現也符合我們的預期。我們預計,隨著今年夏天奧利奧餅乾包裝的改進和產品配方的更新,我們的餅乾業務發展軌跡將會改善。

  • Difficult economic conditions in the Middle East continue to pressure category growth, but our year-over-year comparisons are easier in the second half.

    中東地區嚴峻的經濟情勢持續為品類成長帶來壓力,但下半年年比數據更容易實現。

  • In Latin America, adjusted OI margin increased 530 basis points to 14.3%, primarily driven by improved overhead costs and lower A&C spend as we continue to adjust our spending levels to match the market dynamics in countries like Brazil and Argentina. Organic net revenue declined 0.5%, including a negative impact of 280 basis points from the malware incident.

    在拉丁美洲,經調整的營業利潤率成長了 530 個基點,達到 14.3%,這主要得益於管理費用的改善和 A&C 支出的減少,因為我們將繼續調整支出水平,以適應巴西和阿根廷等國家的市場動態。有機淨收入下降 0.5%,其中包括惡意軟體事件造成的 280 個基點的負面影響。

  • Mexico delivered solid growth, driven by strength in candy while Argentina implemented pricing to offset currency-driven inflation. Brazil remains challenging due to continued economic weakness. Our chocolate business delivered a third consecutive quarter of growth and solid share performance while our Biscuits business continued to face difficult price gaps and consumer down trading.

    墨西哥經濟實現穩健成長,主要得益於糖果業的強勁表現;而阿根廷則透過價格政策來抵銷匯率波動引發的通貨膨脹。由於經濟持續疲軟,巴西仍面臨挑戰。我們的巧克力業務連續第三個季度實現成長,市場佔有率表現穩健,而我們的餅乾業務則繼續面臨價格差距過大和消費者降級消費的困境。

  • Consistent with our discussion during our first quarter call, our North America results were challenged in Q2 as overall category growth was even lower than our tempered expectations. Adjusted OI margin declined 250 basis points to 19.2%, driven primarily by benefits in the prior year related to an asset sale.

    正如我們在第一季電話會議上所討論的那樣,第二季我們在北美的業績受到了挑戰,因為整體品類成長甚至低於我們較為保守的預期。經調整後的營業利益率下降 250 個基點至 19.2%,主要原因是前一年資產出售所帶來的收益。

  • It's important to note that of all of our regions, the North America region was most impacted by the malware incident, driven by the lower trade stock levels associated with DSD. As we've said, this is also the market where we had the majority of our lost consumption due to the July 4 holiday timing.

    值得注意的是,在我們所有地區中,北美地區受惡意軟體事件的影響最大,這是由於與 DSD 相關的貿易庫存水準較低所致。正如我們所說,由於 7 月 4 日假期,這也是我們損失最多消費的市場。

  • Organic net revenue declined 8%, including a negative impact of 410 basis points from the malware incident. These results were driven by U.S. Biscuits as well as declines in Gum.

    有機淨收入下降 8%,其中包括惡意軟體事件造成的 410 個基點的負面影響。這些結果是由美國餅乾銷量下降以及口香糖銷量下滑所導致的。

  • As Irene mentioned, we're moving with a sense of urgency to address the issues we've identified and feel confident this business will return to growth. We continue to expect to see improved results in the back half of the year.

    正如艾琳所說,我們正以緊迫感著手解決我們發現的問題,並相信這項業務將恢復成長。我們仍預期下半年業績會有所改善。

  • We have a strong second half innovation agenda in North America. This includes our new Véa snacks and non-GMO Triscuit crackers, both of which launched in July as well as belVita Protein, RITZ Crisp & Thins and Good Thins, which continue to gain share. Our white space Oreo MILKA chocolate candy is also gaining momentum with healthy velocity and stronger peak rates as we expand distribution and capacity.

    我們在北美地區制定了強而有力的下半年創新計畫。這包括我們於 7 月推出的全新 Véa 零食和非基因改造 Triscuit 餅乾,以及 belVita Protein、RITZ Crisp & Thins 和 Good Thins,這些產品市佔率持續成長。隨著我們擴大分銷和產能,我們的 Oreo MILKA 巧克力糖果也以健康的成長速度和更強的峰值成長率獲得了強勁的勢頭。

  • In addition, our DSD-driven share gain plans are now beginning to play out as we'd expected. As our competitor began to transition out of its DSD system at the end of Q2 and our major customers reset their shelves, we're now capitalizing by gaining displays and share of shelf. We expect this to be a key growth driver in the second half and into next year.

    此外,我們以DSD為驅動的市佔率提升計畫現在也開始如預期發揮作用了。當我們的競爭對手在第二季末開始逐步淘汰其 DSD 系統,而我們的主要客戶也重新調整了他們的貨架時,我們現在正透過獲得展示位和貨架份額來抓住機會。我們預計這將成為下半年乃至明年重要的成長動力。

  • Now let me spend a few moments providing some highlights by category. Snacking category growth was 1.5%, which was generally in line with our full year expectation. We're pleased that our shares have stabilized and were roughly flat for the first half. You should note that these revenue growth numbers include the negative impact of the malware incident.

    現在讓我花幾分鐘時間按類別介紹一些亮點。零食品類成長1.5%,與我們的全年預期基本一致。我們很高興看到公司股價趨於穩定,上半年基本上保持穩定。需要注意的是,這些收入成長數據包含了惡意軟體事件的負面影響。

  • Our Biscuits business posted a revenue decline as solid performance in the U.K., Japan and Germany was offset by weakness in the U.S. Approximately 80% of our year-to-date revenue grew or held share.

    由於英國、日本和德國的強勁表現被美國市場的疲軟所抵消,我們的餅乾業務收入下滑。今年迄今為止,我們約 80% 的收入實現了成長或維持了市場份額。

  • In Chocolate, our business grew 5%, driven by solid results in Germany, India and Brazil. We continued to see good momentum in U.S. Chocolate, which is now benefiting from increased capacity coming on in the second half as well as Milka in China, which continued to perform well. Approximately 60% of our year-to-date revenue grew or held share in this category.

    在巧克力業務方面,我們的業務成長了 5%,這主要得益於德國、印度和巴西市場的穩健表現。我們繼續看到美國巧克力市場保持良好的成長勢頭,目前正受益於下半年產能的增加;同時,中國的妙卡品牌也持續表現良好。今年迄今為止,我們約 60% 的收入成長或維持了該類別的市場份額。

  • Gum & Candy declined approximately 7% as the Gum category continued to experience significant weakness, especially in the U.S. We're planning for continued category declines while working on initiatives to stabilize share and shift focus to our strong, growing and highly profitable candy and mint platforms. About 45% of our year-to-date revenue in Gum & Candy gained or held share.

    口香糖和糖果的銷售額下降了約 7%,其中口香糖品類持續疲軟,尤其是在美國。我們正在為該品類持續下滑做好準備,同時努力採取措施穩定市場份額,並將重點轉移到我們強大、增長迅速且利潤豐厚的糖果和薄荷糖平台。今年迄今為止,口香糖和糖果業務的收入約有 45% 實現了市場份額的成長或保持穩定。

  • Turning to earnings per share. In Q2, we delivered adjusted EPS of $0.48, up 19% on a constant currency basis, driven by our strong operating income growth. We continue to expect to deliver double-digit EPS growth for the full year.

    接下來看每股收益。第二季度,我們調整後的每股盈餘為 0.48 美元,以固定匯率計算成長 19%,這主要得益於我們強勁的營業收入成長。我們仍然預計全年每股收益將實現兩位數成長。

  • As you think about our -- your models, let me remind you that our results now exclude the impact of our French Confectionery and Australian Cheese and Grocery business divestitures that closed in April and early July, respectively. These items were detailed in an 8-K we issued last week. These businesses account for approximately $530 million in revenue and $0.06 of EPS on an annual basis. The divestitures improve our growth rates while we're moving quickly to remove stranded costs associated with these actions.

    當您考慮我們的模型時,請允許我提醒您,我們目前的結果不包括我們在 4 月份和 7 月初分別完成的法國糖果業務和澳大利亞奶酪及雜貨業務剝離的影響。這些項目已在上週發布的 8-K 文件中詳細說明。這些企業每年的收入約為 5.3 億美元,每股收益約為 0.06 美元。資產剝離提高了我們的成長率,同時我們也迅速消除與這些行動相關的擱淺成本。

  • In Q2, we returned approximately $900 million of capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. As we receive cash for our 2 recent divestitures, we're increasing our full year expectation for share repurchases to between $1.5 billion and $2 billion. In addition, we raised our quarterly dividend by 16% and are now targeting to grow our dividend faster than adjusted EPS as our improving free cash flow generation enables us to continue to fully fund our critical growth and transformation investments while also deploying more capital to shareholders.

    第二季度,我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了約 9 億美元的資本。隨著我們收到最近兩次資產剝離的現金,我們將全年股票回購預期提高到 15 億美元至 20 億美元之間。此外,我們將季度股息提高了 16%,現在的目標是股息成長速度超過調整後每股收益,因為我們不斷改善的自由現金流產生能力使我們能夠繼續為關鍵的成長和轉型投資提供充足的資金,同時向股東投入更多資金。

  • Now to our outlook. Overall, our outlook is unchanged for the full year. Our organic net revenue growth target remains at least 1%. We expect adjusted OI margin in the mid-16% range as well as double-digit adjusted EPS growth on a constant currency basis.

    現在談談我們的展望。總體而言,我們對全年的展望保持不變。我們的有機淨收入成長目標仍維持在至少 1%。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將在 16% 左右,並且以固定匯率計算,調整後的每股盈餘將達到兩位數成長。

  • As you think about your models for the next 2 quarters, remember that Q4 is seasonally a higher revenue quarter and will be higher than Q3 even after the impact of the additional malware incident-related shipments. You'll note that we're absorbing the dilution from the 2 divestitures, but we're also adjusting our outlook for interest expense for the year, and the 2 items roughly offset one another.

    在考慮未來兩個季度的模型時,請記住,第四季度通常是收入較高的季度,即使考慮到與惡意軟體事件相關的額外出貨量的影響,第四季度的收入也會高於第三季度。你會注意到,我們正在消化這兩項資產剝離帶來的股權稀釋,但我們也正在調整今年的利息支出預期,這兩項支出大致相互抵銷。

  • And with respect to free cash flow, we continue to expect to deliver approximately $2 billion for the year as we see lower CapEx, improved margins and good working capital efficiency.

    至於自由現金流,由於資本支出減少、利潤率提高以及營運資本效率良好,我們仍預計今年將實現約 20 億美元的自由現金流。

  • With that, let me turn it back to Irene for a few closing comments before we take your questions.

    接下來,在回答大家的問題之前,我先把時間交給艾琳,請她做幾點總結發言。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Brian.

    謝謝你,布萊恩。

  • Throughout my tenure as CEO, the world and our industry have undergone unprecedented change. During that time, we anticipated the emerging challenges, adapted accordingly, and in the process, created significant value for our shareholders. I'm proud to leave this company far stronger than the one I started with.

    在我擔任執行長期間,世界和我們所在的行業都經歷了前所未有的變化。在此期間,我們預見了新出現的挑戰,並做出了相應的調整,在此過程中為股東創造了巨大的價值。我很自豪能離開這家公司,因為它比我剛加入時更強大。

  • I'm indebted to my 90,000 colleagues around the world, who have worked tirelessly to deliver their commitments each and every day in the face of many challenges. And looking ahead, I'm confident that our long-term value-creation strategy continues to position us to win and that the future for our great company is, indeed, very bright.

    我衷心感謝全球 9 萬名同事,他們面對諸多挑戰,日復一日地不懈努力,履行自己的承諾。展望未來,我相信我們的長期價值創造策略將繼續使我們保持領先地位,我們這家偉大公司的未來也的確一片光明。

  • With that, let's open it up for questions.

    那麼,接下來就進入提問環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩·斯皮蘭。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • Congratulations to you, Irene.

    恭喜你,艾琳。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Bryan.

    謝謝你,布萊恩。

  • Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

    Bryan Douglass Spillane - MD of Equity Research

  • I guess my question is just related back to the North American biscuit category. I guess everything you see is that snacking in general is still growing yet the category's sort of lagging snacking growth in North America. So Irene, can you sort of just give us some more color in terms of where you think the category is missing? Is it not channel diverse enough? Is it moving -- where is it -- is it moving share to other snacking -- other snack options? Just trying to understand really why the category seems to be lagging overall snacking in North America.

    我想我的問題還是跟北美餅乾這個類別有關。我想你看到的一切都表明,零食市場總體上仍在增長,但北美零食市場的成長速度卻相對落後。艾琳,你能否再詳細說說你​​認為這個類別缺少哪些面向?頻道種類還不夠豐富嗎?它正在轉移嗎? ——它在哪裡? ——它是否正在將市場份額轉移到其他零食? ——其他零食選擇?我只是想弄清楚為什麼這個品類在北美整體零食市場中似乎表現落後。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. We talked about this at CAGNY. And frankly, we've been looking at this for quite some time. I think it starts with the fact that we're seeing price deflation and erosion in promotion effectiveness in a number of markets but particularly acute in the U.S. And I think you probably have heard that from many of our competitors. We -- in response to that, we are progressing our revenue management activities to continue to find those places that we're getting the best return to work with our customers to understand the ROI of some of the various promotional practices that are going on. And frankly, I do believe that U.S. food deflation will begin to stabilize later this year. The second one is that we are seeing continued shifts towards health and well-being products. And again, as we've talked on a new number of occasions, we're taking significant steps, both in terms of renovating existing brands with things like organic Triscuits, belVita Protein, RITZ Crisp & Thins as well as totally new products like Véa, which we've just -- are in the process of introducing into the marketplace. And we believe that will help to not only improve our share position and it's a big part of our back half share recovery, but we also think it will ultimately stimulate category growth. And then lastly, there is a piece that is non-measured channels, again, primarily e-commerce, which in snacks is a fairly small piece of the business, but it's also natural food stores and other places where the consumer is shopping. And once again, it's one of the reasons we have chosen to focus our efforts so much as we complete our supply chain reinvention on having the flexibility to introduce different package formats and different package sizes, so that we can be present in whatever channels the consumer is shopping. So net-net, we are seeing continued category declines. And in fact, as Brian said, it got a little bit worse in the second quarter, but we have great confidence as we look to the back half of the year, particularly a number of the actions that we are taking, that we'll start to see that category recover.

    是的。我們在CAGNY會議上討論過這個問題。坦白說,我們已經研究這個問題很久了。我認為,這首先源自於我們看到許多市場,尤其是美國市場,出現了物價通貨緊縮和促銷效果下降的現象。而且我想你可能已經從我們的許多競爭對手那裡聽過類似的說法。對此,我們正在推動收入管理活動,繼續尋找能帶來最佳回報的領域,與客戶合作,並了解各種促銷活動的投資報酬率。坦白說,我確實相信美國食品價格通貨緊縮將在今年稍後開始趨於穩定。第二點是,我們看到消費者對健康和保健產品的消費趨勢持續上升。正如我們多次談到的那樣,我們正在採取重大舉措,包括對現有品牌進行革新,例如推出有機 Triscuits、belVita Protein、RITZ Crisp & Thins 等產品,以及推出全新的產品,例如我們剛剛推出的 Véa,目前我們正在將其引入市場。我們相信,這不僅有助於改善我們的市場份額,而且是我們下半年市場份額恢復的重要組成部分,我們還認為這最終將刺激品類成長。最後,還有一部分是無法衡量的管道,主要指電子商務,雖然在零食產業中,電子商務所佔比例相當小,但也包括天然食品商店和消費者購物的其他地方。這也是我們選擇將精力集中在供應鏈重塑上的原因之一,即要有彈性來推出不同的包裝形式和不同的包裝尺寸,以便我們能夠在消費者購物的任何管道都有業務。總而言之,我們看到該類別持續下滑。事實上,正如布萊恩所說,第二季度情況略有惡化,但我們對下半年充滿信心,特別是考慮到我們正在採取的一些措施,我們將開始看到這個類別有所復甦。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

    下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Irene, congratulations as well from me on your decision.

    艾琳,也請代我祝賀你做出這個決定。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes. Two quick questions. First, just the first one around Dirk. I know he doesn't start till November. Mondelez, obviously, has a 2018 margin target. You've got an expectation that margins can further improve in the years thereafter. I'm sure any CEO candidate's going to do their due diligence around the certain targets that are out there, whether they'd be revenue or margin oriented. But I mean, could we have confidence, I guess, that Dirk is sort of fully bought in, if you will, and supportive of the kind of margin targets that are already out there? Or do you think there's still a need for a new CEO to come in and do his or her own sort of more in-depth analysis in the seat, and that those things are all potentially subject to change? And then I've just got a follow-up.

    是的。兩個問題,簡單問一下。首先,就從德克周圍開始。我知道他要到十一月才開始工作。顯然,億滋國際有2018年的利潤率目標。你預期利潤率在未來幾年會進一步提高。我相信任何CEO候選人都會對市場上某些目標進行盡職調查,無論這些目標是以收入為導向還是以利潤為導向。但我的意思是,我們能否確信,德克已經完全接受並支持目前已經存在的利潤率目標?或者您認為仍然需要一位新的執行長上任,進行更深入的分析,而所有這些事情都有可能改變?然後我還有一個後續問題。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I think there's no questions -- it's too early to speculate on what Dirk might do as he gets fully on board. But what I will say is he's very familiar certainly from having done his own due diligence about what this company's progress has looked like and what our aspirations are. And quite frankly, as I said, one of the reasons that we selected him as our leader is the fact that he has a very proven track record of being ambidextrous, as I call it, walking and chewing gum, top line and bottom line, and it's actually quite an impressive set of results. So he's a seasoned CEO. He knows well the challenges that one needs to make on the top line and the bottom line. And again, he's got a proven track record in that area. So I have great confidence that he will come in here. Obviously, he wants to learn and form his own opinions, but I feel quite comfortable with the targets that are laid out.

    嗯,我認為沒有疑問——現在猜測德克完全融入球隊後會做什麼還為時過早。但我可以肯定的是,他對我們公司的發展歷程和願景非常了解,因為他已經對公司的發展和願景進行了充分的調查。坦白說,正如我所說,我們選擇他作為領導者的原因之一是他有非常可靠的業績記錄,他能左右逢源,正如我所說的,既能走路又能嚼口香糖,既能提升業績又能降低成本,而且他的成績確實令人印象深刻。所以他是一位經驗豐富的CEO。他深知企業在營收和利潤方面需要應對的挑戰。而且,他在該領域有著良好的業績記錄。所以我非常有信心他會來這裡。顯然,他想學習並形成自己的觀點,但我對設定的目標感到滿意。

  • Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

    Andrew Lazar - MD and Senior Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then just to follow back up on North America biscuit, obviously, the competitor DSD transition is one of the things that you pointed out that will help improve biscuit trends in the back half of the year. And you mentioned some incremental display and shelf gains. Now that we're a little further into this process, I was wondering if there were any maybe more specific metrics you could share along those lines. Because, I guess, when it was initially announced, Mondelez was certainly pretty excited about the potential opportunity. And maybe it's just me, but it seems like more recently, some of the commentary from the company has been a little more along the lines of, "Well, we'll see if we get a benefit. If not, we can always rethink things, too." And I'm just trying to think maybe it's more the way I'm reading into it than it is reality. But any color you can share around some of the metrics about the type of gains maybe you would expect might be helpful there?

    好的。然後,再回到北美餅乾市場,顯然,您指出的競爭對手的直接銷售配送 (DSD) 轉型是下半年餅乾市場趨勢改善的因素之一。您還提到了一些展示和貨架空間的增量增長。現在我們已經推進了一段時間,我想知道您是否可以分享一些更具體的指標。我猜,因為當初宣布這個消息的時候,億滋國際肯定對這個潛在的機會感到非常興奮。也許只是我個人的感覺,但最近,該公司的一些評論似乎更像是這樣:“好吧,我們看看能否從中受益。”如果不行,我們也可以重新考慮。 」 我只是在想,也許這只是我的解讀方式,而不是事實本身。但是,如果您能分享一些關於預期收益類型的指標信息,那可能會有所幫助?

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Andrew, we feel every bit as confident and optimistic about the opportunity that our competitor's exit presents us with. For competitive reasons, we've been reticent to get into a lot of the specifics, but I will tell you we are seeing early success. And part of the challenge is we've been talking about this for quite some time. They announced 6 to 9 months ago, and we told you what we were going to do, and now we're actually about doing it. So we have every confidence that we will pick up incremental shelf space, incremental displays, and it will be a key contributor to the trajectory change on our North American business in the back half of the year.

    安德魯,我們對競爭對手退出市場帶給我們的機會同樣充滿信心和樂觀。出於競爭原因,我們一直不願透露很多細節,但我可以告訴你,我們已經取得了初步成功。而挑戰之一在於,我們已經討論這個問題很久了。他們6到9個月前就宣布了,我們也告訴了你們我們要做什麼,現在我們真的要開始行動了。因此,我們完全有信心能夠獲得更多的貨架空間和展示位,這將成為我們北美業務在今年下半年發展軌跡轉變的關鍵因素。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • And I think, Andrew, as you look at some of the July data, it will be a little messy because of some of the malware shipment timing issues. But again, at the individual retail or account level, we feel very good about the progress.

    安德魯,我認為,當你查看七月份的一些數據時,你會發現由於惡意軟體運輸時間的問題,數據會有點混亂。但就單一零售或帳戶層面而言,我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Just -- and the other point is, Andrew, it is an expensive capability, and so we want to be clear with our shareholders that we will be prudent as we continue to leverage this asset to make sure that it's giving us a good return. So that's the context in which you might have heard us refer to that.

    還有一點——安德魯,這是一項成本高昂的能力,因此我們想向股東們明確表示,我們將謹慎地繼續利用這項資產,以確保它能為我們帶來良好的回報。所以,這就是你可能聽到我們提到這件事的背景。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Chris Growe with Stifel Capital.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel Capital 的 Chris Growe。

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

  • I wish you well, Irene, in your retirement as well. In relation to revenue growth, as I think about the improvement -- organic revenue growth, the improvement required in the second half of the year, I guess I wanted to understand where you're seeing some strength in the business? I heard you, Brian, mentioned some better emerging market performances kind of shaping up there. I'm just trying to understand where you're seeing that improvement that will help us get a better feel for the second half improvement or revenue growth?

    艾琳,也祝福你退休生活一切順利。關於營收成長,考慮到下半年需要改進的地方——包括有機營收成長,我想了解一下您認為公司哪些方面比較強勁?布萊恩,我聽你提到了一些新興市場表現較好的跡象。我只是想了解您認為哪些方面有所改善,這將有助於我們更好地了解下半年的改善或收入成長?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes. Look, I think you're talking globally?

    是的。你看,我覺得你指的是全球範圍?

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

  • Globally, and I realize that the malware incident, you have some benefit in Q3. I get that. I was thinking more about the underlying business, if you will, and how it's improving.

    從全球範圍來看,我意識到惡意軟體事件,你們在第三季度獲得了一些好處。我明白了。我當時更多是在思考公司的基本業務,以及它如何改進。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes. Look, there's no question as we think about the second half. So you can do the math on what we need to do in the second half to get to at least 1. That's still -- we need a good second half. The malware incident has created a headwind, and I would say it does make that target a little bit tougher as we talked a little bit about some of the third quarter challenges. But I'll give you a few reasons to believe that we feel good about the second half. Three of our 4 regions are actually executing well and don't really need a significant change in trajectory as we look at the second half. The second thing is we will ship through the majority of the Q2 malware shipments, and again, July, we did the majority of that and feel good about that. We also, as Irene talked a bit about North America, we have good confidence in North America having a much better second half, and it's about the DSD opportunity. It's about the pipeline of health and wellness opportunities that we're pursuing, and it's about the execution of the team as we've had leadership in place there. So those are really the drivers that I think we feel good about it. There's the Véa, the Triscuit and the share gains that we'll have, and then we think that will also help with category growth in North America. And then in general, I think as you look at the second half, we have easier compares. You got India demonetization. You've got some of the weakness we saw and trade stock dynamics playing out of the Middle East that I think will help us in the second half as we look at compares. So look, I think we feel pretty good about the opportunity to have a much better second half, and those are the real drivers.

    是的。你看,當我們考慮下半場時,這一點毫無疑問。所以你可以算算我們下半場需要做些什麼才能至少拿到1分。那仍然——我們需要一個好的下半場。惡意軟體事件造成了不利影響,正如我們剛才討論的第三季的一些挑戰一樣,我認為這確實讓目標的實現變得更加困難。但我會給出一些理由,讓你們相信我們對下半場充滿信心。我們 4 個區域中有 3 個區域的實際表現良好,展望下半年,它們的發展軌跡並不需要重大變化。第二件事是,我們將完成第二季大部分惡意軟體的交付,而且,7 月我們已經完成了大部分交付,對此我們感到很滿意。正如艾琳談到北美市場時所說,我們對北美市場下半年的表現充滿信心,這都與DSD(直接銷售分銷)的機會有關。這關乎我們正在追求的健康和保健機會的管道,也關乎我們團隊的執行力,因為我們已經有了相應的領導。所以,這些就是我們感到滿意的主要因素。我們有 Véa、Triscuit 以及我們將獲得的市佔率成長,我們認為這也將有助於北美地區的品類成長。總的來說,我認為當你觀察下半季時,我們會發現比較起來更容易一些。印度經歷了廢鈔令。我們看到中東的一些疲軟跡象和交易股票動態正在顯現,我認為這將在下半年幫助我們進行比較分析。所以你看,我認為我們對下半年取得更好的成績充滿信心,而這些才是真正的動力。

  • Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

    Christopher Robert Growe - MD and Analyst

  • I just had one quick follow-up question for you. I did hear in a number of divisions where A&C spending was down. In some cases, it was a -- you're kind of rightsizing to the opportunity in the given market like in Latin America. Is that the trend that we should expect? Or as you think about reinvesting back in the business, maybe not so much just all A&C, but how is that A&C trending in the second half of the year?

    我還有一個後續問題想問你。我確實聽說一些部門的A&C支出有所下降。在某些情況下,這是一種-你根據特定市場(例如拉丁美洲市場)的機會進行規模調整。這就是我們應該預期的發展趨勢嗎?或者,當您考慮將資金再投資於業務時,也許不僅僅是全部投資於 A&C,而是投資於 A&C 在下半年的發展趨勢如何?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes. Look, I think -- we expect -- it was around 9% for the first half, which is slightly down from where we were in the first half of last year but roughly in the range of where we've been as we look at the last 6 quarters or so. For the full year, I would say we'll be approximately flat. So we will have a little bit of timing and more A&C spending in the second half. We continue to distort that spending, obviously, to Power Brands and to markets where we're seeing the growth opportunity, and therefore, we've taken it out of some. Digital mix continues to be a priority. We're projected to be at 30% of our spend on digital. We still think that makes lots of sense. And again, as I said, given the innovation initiatives that we have in the back half, that will drive some of the spending that we have lined up for the second half.

    是的。你看,我認為——我們預計——上半年約為 9%,這比去年上半年略有下降,但與我們過去 6 個季度左右的水平大致相當。就全年而言,我認為我們會大致保持穩定。因此,下半年我們會稍微調整時間安排,增加A&C方面的支出。顯然,我們繼續調整支出方向,將資金投入實力品牌和我們認為有成長機會的市場,因此,我們減少了對某些市場的投入。數位化融合仍然是重中之重。預計我們將有 30% 的支出用於數位化領域。我們仍然認為這很有道理。正如我之前所說,鑑於我們在下半年推出的創新舉措,這將推動我們為下半年安排的部分支出。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的肯‧戈德曼。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • Irene, best wishes to you from me as well.

    艾琳,也請代我向你致以最美好的祝愿。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • Irene, it's a little backward looking of a question so -- but you did -- and you highlighted many of your accomplishments over the years, and clearly, you've helped create a lot of value for shareholders. But everyone has decisions we wish we could change. I always find it interesting to sort of ask outgoing leaders, as you look back on your career running Kraft and Mondelez, are there any choices that stand out that you made that maybe with 20/20 hindsight you would have done slightly differently? I always find that informational.

    艾琳,這個問題有點回顧過去——但你確實做到了——你重點介紹了你多年來取得的許多成就,顯然,你為股東創造了很多價值。但每個人都有一些希望能改變的決定。我總是覺得問即將卸任的領導者們一個問題很有意思:在回顧你們執掌卡夫和億滋國際的職業生涯時,你們做出的哪些選擇讓我覺得有些特別,如果事後諸葛亮的話,你們會做出一些不同的選擇?我一直覺得這很有參考價值。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. No, I think it's a great question. I actually -- as I have had a chance to reflect on the last decade or so, I'm quite proud of a number of the things that happened. I think the portfolio decisions probably are kind of at the top of the list. I'm proud of the pivot that we made in response as we launched the company, the pivot that we made to more aggressively go after costs and improve margins. And I think in hindsight, I think perhaps we could have gone after the costs a little faster. That would have helped us to be able to have the fuel to invest in our growth a little bit sooner. But I actually think that one of the things that I'm most proud of is having been able to balance the long term and the short term and the flexibility to pivot as we did in 2013, '14 as we jump-started ZBB and supply chain reinvention and our Mondelez business services to allow us to deliver the margin expansion. So I think my regret is that we haven't fully realized the potential on the top line, and I have every confidence again as we look at the -- as I hand the reins over to Dirk and we look at his track record that, that is the last piece of the puzzle here.

    是的。不,我覺得這是一個很好的問題。事實上,當我有機會反思過去十年左右的時間後,我對發生的一些事情感到非常自豪。我認為投資組合決策可能是最重要的事情之一。我為公司成立之初我們所做的調整感到自豪,我們調整策略,更積極地降低成本,提高利潤率。現在回想起來,我覺得我們或許應該更快追查成本問題。那可以幫助我們更早獲得資金,從而投資於我們的發展。但我認為我最引以為傲的事情之一,是能夠平衡長期和短期目標,並像我們在 2013 年和 2014 年那樣靈活地進行轉型,從而啟動零基預算和供應鏈重塑以及我們的億滋國際業務服務,使我們能夠實現利潤率的提升。所以我覺得遺憾的是,我們還沒有完全發揮出頂級球員的潛力,但當我把接力棒交給德克,看看他的過往成績時,我又充滿了信心,這才是問題的最後一塊拼圖。

  • Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

    Kenneth B. Goldman - Senior Analyst

  • And then a quick follow-up for me. Can you talk about the board's decision? I know you mentioned what Dirk's qualifications are, and certainly, he's had a bit of success at McCain. But can you talk about the board's decision to go outside the firm to identify the next CEO? So typically, there are internal candidates at the senior level who are interested in these kind of jobs. So how are you -- how do you think about that? And frankly, how is the team and the board managing the morale of the top internal candidates, who maybe, to be frank, are slightly disappointed right now?

    然後我還有一個後續問題。您能談談董事會的決定嗎?我知道你提到了德克的資歷,而且,他確實在麥凱恩取得了一些成功。但是,您能否談談董事會決定從公司外部尋找下一任執行長的決定?因此,通常情況下,公司內部會有高層候選人對這類工作感興趣。所以你怎麼樣? ——你對此有什麼看法?坦白說,團隊和董事會是如何安撫那些頂尖內部候選人的士氣的?說實話,他們現在可能有點失望。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Look, over the last couple of years as I talked with the board about my plans and my time line for retirement, we -- they put in place, as you would expect, a very thorough multiyear process. And in that process, the board considered both internal and external candidates, and it was -- there was a very talented pool of both internal and external candidates. I'm very pleased with the choice of Dirk and for all the reasons that we've laid out, and I feel quite confident that he will work hand in glove with our senior leaders to deliver on the commitments that we've made.

    是的。你看,在過去幾年裡,我與董事會討論了我的退休計畫和時間表,正如你所預料的那樣,他們制定了一個非常徹底的多年流程。在這個過程中,董事會考慮了內部和外部候選人,結果發現——內部和外部候選人都非常有才華。我對選擇德克感到非常滿意,原因正如我們之前所述,我非常有信心他會與我們的高層領導密切合作,履行我們所做的承諾。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

    下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Alexia Howard。

  • Alexia Jane Burland Howard - Senior Analyst

    Alexia Jane Burland Howard - Senior Analyst

  • Wishing you all the very best for the next chapter, Irene. Can I ask about the gross margin outlook? It feels as though the gross margin progression has been pretty flat recently, I guess, certainly this quarter. The commodity outlook -- I mean, dairy's obviously a problem at the moment. Will you get some relief at some point, perhaps on the cocoa side? And then can you talk specifically about the pricing environment? Particularly here in North America, we're hearing that a lot of the retailers are getting pretty aggressive on pricing, pushing private label. I know that's not a huge issue in confectionery, but it maybe in cookies and crackers. So maybe just a few comments on the gross margin outlook, and I'll pass it on.

    祝你在人生的下一個階段一切順利,艾琳。請問毛利率前景如何?感覺最近毛利率的成長一直比較平緩,至少本季是如此。大宗商品前景-我的意思是,目前乳製品顯然是個問題。你是否會在某個時候得到一些緩解,例如通過攝取可可?那麼,您能否具體談談定價環境?尤其是在北美,我們聽說許多零售商在定價方面都採取了非常激進的策略,大力推廣自有品牌。我知道這在糖果業不是什麼大問題,但在餅乾和薄脆餅乾行業可能就比較棘手了。所以,關於毛利率前景,我可能要說幾句,然後我會轉達。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Sure, Alexia. Yes. I mean, gross margins were down slightly in the quarter, and that's sort of the trend we've had over the last few quarters. The net productivity, the supply chain reinvention work is executing well. We're delivering strong net productivity. So that's not the challenge. I would say, we've seen -- clearly, we lost some volume leverage in the quarter as it related to the malware issue. And the pricing dynamics -- pricing in general was positive. And the reality is most of that was driven by some of the inflationary economies like Argentina and Egypt, Nigeria. Those are big, big drivers where we had significant pricing. There's a couple of places where we have seen trade spending and incremental pricing challenges. You call out the U.S. I would just say in the U.S., that pricing has been more or less tied to some of the DSD opportunities as we position to gain some market share and take shelf space. Obviously, that's part of the equation and just something that we had expected to do. So we've been appropriately investing there. So again, I would just close by saying I think gross margins will continue to be a key element as we look at the margin expansion. And again, we have a full portfolio of programs we're driving around productivity that we expect will deliver over the next multiple quarters here.

    當然可以,艾莉克西亞。是的。我的意思是,本季毛利率略有下降,這與我們過去幾季的趨勢基本一致。淨生產力和供應鏈重塑工作進展順利。我們實現了強勁的淨生產率。所以,這並非真正的挑戰。我想說,我們已經看到——很明顯,由於惡意軟體問題,我們在本季度失去了一些銷售優勢。價格動態-整體而言,價格走勢良好。而現實情況是,這大部分是由阿根廷、埃及、奈及利亞等一些通貨膨脹嚴重的經濟體所推動的。這些都是影響價格的重要因素。在一些地方,我們看到了貿易支出和價格上漲的挑戰。你提到了美國。我只想說,在美國,定價或多或少與一些直接送貨上門 (DSD) 的機會有關,因為我們正努力爭取一些市場份額和貨架空間。顯然,這是等式的一部分,也是我們預料之中的事。所以我們已經在那裡進行了適當的投資。最後,我想再次強調,我認為毛利率仍將是衡量利潤率擴張的關鍵因素。此外,我們正在推動一系列旨在提高生產力的項目,預計這些項目將在未來幾季內取得成效。

  • Alexia Jane Burland Howard - Senior Analyst

    Alexia Jane Burland Howard - Senior Analyst

  • And the commodity outlook, does it get better in 2018?

    那麼,2018年大宗商品前景會好轉嗎?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes. Clearly, we've seen cocoa drop, but it's -- as you know, it's more than cocoa in the portfolio. The dairy has been a challenge. Even cocoa butter has been a challenge, wheat and sugar. There are some other things moving the other way. Right now, in the first half of the year, commodities were a pressure, and they were a pressure versus what we even had in our plans. As we go to the second half, not significant changes as we're mostly hedged for a lot of those commodities. And dairy, as I think you know, there's not a lot of liquidity, and you can't really hedge that exposure. So as you head into '18, based on what we see right now, there's a bit of relief. But obviously, you have to work through the pricing dynamics, and it's a complex equation.

    是的。顯然,我們看到可可產量下降了,但是——正如你所知,我們的產品組合中不僅僅包含可可。乳牛場經營一直是個挑戰。就連可可脂、小麥和糖都帶來了挑戰。還有一些事情正朝著相反的方向發展。目前,在今年上半年,大宗商品價格給我們帶來了壓力,而且這種壓力甚至超過了我們原先的計畫。進入下半年,不會有重大變化,因為我們對許多大宗商品都進行了避險。如您所知,乳製品行業的流動性並不強,您也無法真正對沖這種風險。所以,展望 2018 年,根據我們目前所看到的,情況略有改善。但很顯然,你必須仔細研究定價動態,這是一個複雜的等式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

  • Jason English - VP

    Jason English - VP

  • Congratulations, Irene, for your pending retirement. I hope you have ample time to enjoy it in the years ahead. I want to come back, I guess, I want to come back to top line growth and what you -- what you're highlighting for category growth. You're footnoting a lot of brick-and-mortar data with Nielsen, which I think we all know, are sort of imperfect. If we marry it with your monitored data and try to replicate your analysis, it yields a different conclusion that your end markets are growing something closer to a bit north of 4%, which is lower than historical context but a lot better than the bit north of 2% that you reported last year. Do you think -- I mean, there's flaws in both data sets. But as you contemplate what's not captured in Nielsen, do you think your monitor maybe a more accurate prediction? Or structurally, do you really think your categories are slowing so much so rapidly? And what does it mean for the long term?

    恭喜艾琳即將退休。希望您在未來的歲月裡有充足的時間享受它。我想回歸正軌,我想回歸到營收成長以及你——你強調的品類成長方面的內容。你引用了許多尼爾森的實體店數據作為腳註,但我認為我們都知道,這些數據並不完美。如果我們將其與您監測的數據結合起來,並嘗試複製您的分析,則會得出不同的結論,即您的終端市場增長率接近略高於 4%,這低於歷史水平,但比您去年報告的略高於 2% 的增長率要好得多。你認為——我的意思是,這兩個數據集都有缺陷。但當你思考尼爾森收視率調查未能涵蓋的內容時,你是否認為你的收視率監測器可能給出了更準確的預測?或者從結構上看,你真的認為你的分類正在如此迅速地放緩嗎?從長遠來看,這意味著什麼?

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • So Jason, I think the growth is closer to 2% than it is to 4%. I'm not quite sure what you're -- how you put those numbers together. And it is lower than, certainly, than the raise that we would have seen a number of years ago. But I think we've set our expectations properly. I think we've got a good sense of category growth. We've been focused disproportionately on our share growth. I'm delighted to see our share stabilizing as we come out of the second quarter, and we are very focused on our pipeline of innovation and renovation to help to continue to drive our overall share performance. So I think in the foreseeable future, we're probably looking at category trends in the 2 -- approximately 2% range, and I think we have a real opportunity to drive our share performance within those categories.

    所以傑森,我認為成長率更接近 2%,而不是 4%。我不太確定你是怎麼把這些數字組合起來的。而且,這肯定低於幾年前我們看到的漲幅。但我認為我們已經合理地設定了預期。我認為我們對品類成長有了比較清楚的認識。我們一直以來都過於關注市場佔有率的成長。我很高興看到我們的股價在第二季末趨於穩定,我們將非常專注於我們的創新和改造項目,以幫助繼續推動我們的整體股價表現。所以我認為在可預見的未來,我們可能會看到品類趨勢在 2% 左右,我認為我們有真正的機會在這些品類中提升我們的市場份額。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • But we are, as we've talked about, disproportionately moving investments and building route-to-market capability and distribution around channels that are growing faster. So acknowledging that there are some unmeasured channels that clearly may provide more growth is something we've done. And clearly, putting some investment there is part of our strategy.

    但正如我們之前討論過的,我們正在不成比例地將投資轉移到成長更快的管道,並圍繞這些管道建立市場進入能力和分銷管道。因此,我們已經意識到,存在一些未被衡量的管道,這些管道顯然可能會帶來更大的成長。顯然,在那裡進行一些投資是我們策略的一部分。

  • Jason English - VP

    Jason English - VP

  • Sure, sure. But it sounds like thinking about the path to eventual reacceleration, it's a path to 2% now, not a path to north of 4%. I mean, tell me if you disagree with that? And then secondly, I'm looking at the same chart you showed in the first quarter. First quarter category growth down 2.5%, this quarter up 1.5%. I mean, year-to-date basis suggesting that this quarter actually had a pretty dramatic snap back in category growth.

    當然,當然。但聽起來,這似乎是在考慮最終重新加速的路徑,是目前達到 2% 的路徑,而不是達到 4% 以上的路徑。我的意思是,如果你不同意我的觀點,請告訴我?其次,我正在查看您在第一季展示的同一張圖表。第一季品類成長下降 2.5%,本季成長 1.5%。我的意思是,從年初至今的數據來看,本季該品類的成長其實出現了相當強勁的反彈。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • No, if you recall, Jason, Easter -- the issue in the first quarter was the timing of Easter, so...

    不,傑森,如果你還記得的話,復活節——第一季的問題就是復活節的時間安排,所以…

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Consumption for Easter was -- yes.

    復活節期間的消費情況——是的。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Year-to-date, we're approximately at about 1.5%. So that smooths out the impact of Easter.

    今年迄今為止,我們大約佔1.5%。這樣就能減輕復活節的影響。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • We said in the end of July, the growth in the first quarter was somewhere closer to 1%. So it's 1% to 1.5% is about what we're seeing pretty consistently.

    我們在7月底曾表示,第一季的成長率接近1%。所以,我們看到的比例基本上穩定在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • But let me bring this back. We continue to feel very strongly that snacking categories will grow faster than the rest of food, that we will grow faster than center of the store categories because we are more impulse driven. We've got good demographic trends as a tailwind as we think about the fact that people are traveling farther to work, more women in the workforce, et cetera, which is causing people to snack more often. And so the combination of all of those factors together should give us a nice tailwind, I particularly -- the emerging market's really the key to getting the aggregate category growth to the kind of levels, closer to the levels that you're talking about, is really to see the emerging markets come back, and slowly but surely, we're starting to see that, but we -- in markets like Brazil, for example, we're still -- they're still well below historical rates. So as we see the emerging markets come back, our strong footprint in those markets, our strong brand positions, together with the actions that we're taking should allow us to disproportionately continue to grow our share and the categories in the face of the broader macro trends.

    但我想把這件事重新提起來。我們仍然堅信零食品類將比其他食品類別成長更快,我們的成長速度也將超過商店中心類別,因為我們的消費更受衝動性驅動。人口結構的變化趨勢對我們有利,因為人們通勤上班的路程越來越遠,越來越多的女性進入職場等等,這些都導致​​人們吃零食的頻率更高。因此,所有這些因素加在一起應該會給我們帶來良好的順風,尤其是新興市場——要使整體品類增長達到您所說的水平,關鍵在於看到新興市場復甦,而且我們正在緩慢但穩步地看到這一點,但是——例如在巴西這樣的市場,我們仍然——它們仍然遠低於歷史水平。因此,隨著新興市場的復甦,我們在這些市場強大的影響力、強大的品牌地位,以及我們正在採取的行動,應該能夠讓我們在更廣泛的宏觀趨勢下,繼續不成比例地擴大市場份額和品類。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Robert Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅伯特·莫斯科。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • And best wishes, Irene. Brian, I think when we met a couple of months ago, you said that you had a whole war room set up to try to plot a strategy for the second half for Nabisco and DSD, but I was hoping you could give us some numbers on any kind of distribution gains that you've achieved? You mentioned it qualitatively. But is there anything you can help us with when we watch the Nielsen data come through as to what kind of ACV to expect or just qualitatively or roughly how many customers you've made gains with?

    祝你一切順利,艾琳。布萊恩,我想幾個月前我們見面的時候,你說過你設立了一個完整的作戰室,試圖為納貝斯克和DSD制定下半年的戰略,但我希望你能給我們一些關於你們在分銷方面取得的任何進展的具體數據?你只是定性地提到了這一點。但是,在尼爾森數據公佈後,您能否幫助我們預測預期平均合約價值 (ACV),或者大致了解您已經獲得了多少新客戶?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes. I think, Rob, it's still just a little bit early. I hope you can sense our optimism and positive energy around it. I think there's -- clearly, we're in the middle of shelf resets now, and you'll start to see that play out as you move through August and into September. And as I said a little bit earlier, there is a bit of noise because of the -- some of the shift in timing and what played into July and how that may have affected some of the shelf resets. So we're working through that now. But I'm not going to provide details. I mean, obviously, there's a competitive sensitivity to sharing some of that data as well. You'll see it play out. But I think it'll play out as you get through the third quarter into the fourth quarter, I think it'll be much clearer in some of that reported data. That's what I would say.

    是的。羅布,我覺得現在還是有點早。我希望你們能感受到我們對此抱持的樂觀和正面的態度。我認為很明顯,我們現在正處於貨架調整期,隨著八月進入九月,你會看到這種情況逐漸顯現。正如我之前所說,由於時間安排上的一些變化以及7月份發生的一些事情,可能會對一些貨架調整產生影響,因此出現了一些噪音。所以我們現在正在努力解決這個問題。但我不會提供細節。我的意思是,很顯然,分享其中一些數據也存在競爭方面的敏感度。你會看到事情的發展。但我認為隨著第三季度進入第四季度,情況會逐漸明朗,一些公佈的數據會更加清晰地展現出來。我也會這麼說。

  • Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

    Robert Bain Moskow - Research Analyst

  • So your confidence then, Brian, is it because you have commitments? Like verbal commitments from customers to make these changes?

    那麼,布萊恩,你的自信是因為你有責任在身嗎?例如客戶口頭承諾做出這些改變?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • In many cases, yes.

    很多情況下,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from John Baumgartner with Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的約翰·鮑姆加特納。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - VP and Senior Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - VP and Senior Analyst

  • Irene, you mentioned your belief in gaining market share in a 2% growth category, and I guess what stands out is maybe your distribution model in China, which enabled Gum success, and now we're seeing it again with Milka. How unique is your route-to-market in China and its ability to leverage multiple categories? And how should we think about your other routes-to-market either by category or geography where the structure may be allows you to do more in terms of cross-selling? Like were you not fully maximizing your potential at this point?

    艾琳,你提到你相信在一個增長率為 2% 的類別中獲得市場份額,我想最突出的可能是你在中國的成功分銷模式,正是這種模式成就了 Gum 的成功,現在我們又在 Milka 身上看到了同樣的成功。貴公司在中國的市場拓展策略有何獨特之處?它能否有效利用多個品類?那麼,我們應該如何考慮您按類別或地理劃分的其他市場管道,在這些管道的結構下,您可以進行更多交叉銷售活動嗎?難道你當時還沒有充分發揮自己的潛能嗎?

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I think, John, it's actually -- our route-to-market in China is somewhat unique relative to other markets. But frankly, the success that we've had with Gum and now in chocolate is simply the playbook, which is that we or intend to have all of our categories available in all of our countries. And so as we think about the emerging markets, most of those countries are dominant-single-category countries. And slowly but surely, we are bringing our brands into those white spaces, and so chocolate in China is a good example. The opportunity to bring chocolate here to the U.S. is another example. It's not about the nature of the route-to-market. It's frankly, it's our investment in the feet on the ground that allow us to have the reach into broader parts of the country. So the investments that we're making in all of our geographies are designed to give us the infrastructure in Brazil, in China, in India, in South East Asia that will then allow us to put all of our categories through that pipe. So we have great visibility and optimism about the runway of growth opportunities that will come from this -- the introduction of all of our categories into what can be white space -- what is white space for us in a number of markets.

    嗯,約翰,我認為,實際上——我們進入中國的市場管道相對於其他市場來說有些獨特。但坦白說,我們在口香糖和現在的巧克力領域取得的成功,只是我們制定的策略,那就是我們打算讓所有品類的產品在我們所有的國家都能買到。因此,當我們思考新興市場時,會發現其中大多數國家都是以單一類別為主導的國家。我們正在逐步將我們的品牌帶入這些空白市場,中國巧克力市場就是一個很好的例子。將巧克力引入美國的機會就是另一個例子。這與市場通路的性質無關。坦白說,正是我們對第一線人員的投入,才使我們能夠將業務拓展到全國更廣闊的地區。因此,我們在所有地區的投資旨在為我們在巴西、中國、印度、東南亞等地建立基礎設施,使我們能夠將所有產品類別透過該管道輸送出去。因此,我們對由此帶來的成長機會充滿信心和樂觀——我們將所有產品類別引入空白市場——這在許多市場對我們來說都是空白市場。

  • John Joseph Baumgartner - VP and Senior Analyst

    John Joseph Baumgartner - VP and Senior Analyst

  • And just as a follow-up. In terms of where your resources stand today, what's your ability to get to achieve that with organic resources as opposed to any more external M&A?

    作為後續補充。就你目前的資源狀況而言,你有多大能力透過自身資源實現目標,而不是透過任何外部併購?

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • As we've said, we feel very good about the overall composition of the portfolio. And about our reach, we are well positioned certainly in the BRIC markets and in a number of the second-tier markets, but we will continue to look for opportunities to supplement that portfolio as we did in Vietnam, with our Kinh Do acquisition. So in that case, we had a business in Vietnam. It was fairly small. We instantly became the #1 snacking company in that country with the acquisition of Kinh Do. So we will continue to look for opportunities to supplement our basic footprint, but we feel quite good about the overall footprint and the 40% -- approximately 40% of our revenue that is in emerging markets.

    正如我們所說,我們對投資組合的整體組成感到非常滿意。至於我們的業務範圍,我們在金磚國家市場和一些二線市場都佔據了有利地位,但我們將繼續尋找機會來補充我們的業務組合,就像我們在越南收購京都公司一樣。所以,在這種情況下,我們在越南開展了業務。它很小。收購 Kinh Do 後,我們立即成為全國排名第一的零食公司。因此,我們將繼續尋找機會來補充我們的基本業務佈局,但我們對整體業務佈局以及新興市場約占我們收入 40% 的情況感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We have time for one final question. Our final question this morning comes from Steven Strycula with UBS.

    我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。今天早上的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Strycula。

  • Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

    Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Congrats, Irene. And Brian, you never showed me your DSD war room. So next time I come through Chicago, I want to see it. But...

    恭喜你,艾琳。布萊恩,你從來沒給我看過你的DSD作戰室。所以下次我經過芝加哥的時候,我想去看看。但...

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • It's in East Hanover, Steven.

    史蒂文,它在東漢諾威。

  • Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

    Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • All right. Two questions. First one for Irene for chocolate production. With cross-border taxes being less of an issue going forward, how do you think about freeing up extra capacity locally to feed the U.S. marketplace? And can you speak to some of the success you've had already with the Oreo and Milka launch?

    好的。兩個問題。第一台是給艾琳的,用於巧克力生產。隨著跨境稅收問題在未來逐漸減少,您認為如何釋放本地額外產能來滿足美國市場需求?您能否談談奧利奧和妙卡上市以來的一些成功?

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Is that chocolates specifically, Steve? Or just broadly?

    史蒂夫,你指的是巧克力嗎?或只是泛指?

  • Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

    Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Yes, specific to chocolate.

    是的,特別指巧克力。

  • Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

    Brian T. Gladden - CFO and EVP

  • Yes, we've added -- so one of the things I said in the prepared comments was we have added capacity that's come online even in the last few weeks, and we now have the capability in the U.S. to accelerate some of our distribution expansion. So you'll see a broader footprint and a bigger market position for Oreo, Milka as that capacity has come on. It's not U.S.-based capacity. We will likely, as this business grows, and we continue to invest, need to have a discussion around where we put incremental capacity beyond that. And that's something that we'll probably phase into within the next, probably 12 months, as we think about that business. But we're not there yet, and we've got plenty of capacity to drive the growth that we have for the second half and into the next year.

    是的,我們已經增加了——我在準備好的評論中提到過,我們增加了產能,這些產能甚至在過去幾週內就已經投入使用,現在我們在美國有能力加快一些分銷擴張。隨著產能的提升,你會看到奧利奧和妙卡的市佔率擴大,市場地位也更加穩固。這並非美國本土的產能。隨著業務的成長和我們持續投資,我們可能需要討論如何在現有產能的基礎上增加產能。在接下來的 12 個月內,隨著我們對這項業務的思考,我們可能會逐步推進這項工作。但我們尚未達到目標,我們有足夠的能力推動下半年乃至明年的成長。

  • Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

    Steven A. Strycula - Director and Equity Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then, Irene, for emerging markets. I've heard the other CPG companies with more global footprints talk about losing share to local brands in markets like Brazil, similar to what's happening in biscuits right now. What is key to kind of reaccelerating volume and taking back market share in places like Brazil or even Russia? Is it really coming out with more affordable price pack architecture? Or just maybe even launching new brands that are more geared to the lower-income demographic? Could you kind of speak to how we kind of accelerate in those markets?

    好的。然後是面向新興市場的 Irene。我聽說其他一些業務遍及全球的消費品公司正在談論在巴西等市場被本土品牌搶佔市場份額的情況,這與目前餅乾行業的情況類似。在巴西甚至俄羅斯等市場,重新加速銷售成長並奪回市場份額的關鍵是什麼?它真的會推出價格更實惠的軟體包架構嗎?還是乾脆推出更面向低收入者的新品牌?您能否談談我們如何在這些市場中加速發展?

  • Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

    Irene B. Rosenfeld - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, and it's exactly what you said. It is the fact that we are seeing a -- particularly, in challenged economies like Brazil, we are seeing that value pricing is very important to the consumers there. And one of the things that's been a big focus of ours as we have implemented our supply chain reinvention is the opportunity to have more flexible packaging formats available, so that we can provide our products in a variety of packaged formats at different price points. And so the key for us in competing in those, particularly in the emerging markets with a number of lower-priced local competitors, is our ability to create smaller pack sizes of our existing products. And we're finding that is working quite well for us, and that will be a key source of our share gains -- they are actually today a source of share gains and will be increasingly important as we look ahead.

    是的,正如你所說。事實是,我們看到——尤其是在像巴西這樣經濟形勢嚴峻的國家,物有所值定價對當地消費者來說非常重要。我們在實施供應鏈改革的過程中,重點關注的一點是,如何提供更靈活的包裝形式,以便我們能夠以不同的價格提供各種包裝形式的產品。因此,對我們而言,在這些市場,尤其是在新興市場,面對眾多價格較低廉的本地競爭對手,競爭的關鍵在於我們能否生產出更小包裝規格的現有產品。我們發現這種做法對我們來說效果很好,而且這將是我們市場份額成長的關鍵來源——事實上,它們現在就是市場份額成長的來源,而且隨著我們展望未來,它們的重要性將日益增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude the Mondelez Second Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. You may now disconnect your lines.

    女士們、先生們,億滋國際2017年第二季財報電話會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路了。