億滋國際 (MDLZ) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is scheduled to last about 1 hour, including remarks by Mondelez management and a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call over to Mr. Shep Dunlap, Vice President, Investor Relations for Mondelez. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加億滋國際2017年第三季財報電話會議。今天的電話會議預計持續約 1 小時，包括億滋國際管理層的演講和問答環節。（操作說明）謝謝。現在我將把電話交給億滋國際投資者關係副總裁謝普‧鄧拉普先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thanks for joining us. With me today are Irene Rosenfeld, our Chairman and CEO; and Brian Gladden, our CFO. Earlier today, we sent out our press release and presentation slides, which are available on our website, mondelezinternational.com/investors.

下午好，感謝各位的參與。今天陪我一起的還有我們的董事長兼執行長艾琳·羅森菲爾德，以及我們的財務長布萊恩·格拉登。今天早些時候，我們發布了新聞稿和演示文稿，這些內容可在我們的網站 mondelezinternational.com/investors 上找到。

During this call, we'll make forward-looking statements about the company's performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please refer to the cautionary statements and risk factors contained in our 10-K and 10-Q filings for more details on our forward-looking statements.

在本次電話會議中，我們將對公司的績效做出前瞻性陳述。這些說法是基於我們今天看待事物的方式。由於風險和不確定因素，實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。有關我們前瞻性聲明的更多詳情，請參閱我們 10-K 和 10-Q 文件中包含的警示性聲明和風險因素。

Some of today's prepared remarks include non-GAAP financial measures. Today, we will be referencing our non-GAAP financial measures unless otherwise noted. You can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and at the back of the slide presentation.

今天準備的發言稿中部分內容涉及非GAAP財務指標。除非另有說明，今天我們將使用非GAAP財務指標。您可以在我們的獲利報告中以及投影片簡報的背面找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調整表。

And with that, I'll now turn the call over to Irene.

接下來，我將把電話交給艾琳。

Thanks, Shep, and good afternoon. Q3 was a good quarter on both the top and bottom lines. Organic net revenue increased 2.8%, fueled largely by the strength of our Power Brands, improving momentum in emerging markets and strong performance in Europe. We estimate that our top line results included a net benefit of approximately 60 basis points associated with recovery from the malware incident as we recaptured some delayed shipments from the end of Q2. Of course, we had some other challenges in the quarter from hurricanes, earthquakes and the India GST, but they netted out to a very small number. On the bottom line, we delivered another quarter of strong adjusted operating income margin expansion and double-digit adjusted EPS growth.

謝謝你，謝普，下午好。第三季業績表現良好，營收和獲利均有所成長。有機淨收入成長 2.8%，主要得益於我們實力品牌的強勁表現、新興市場成長勢頭的改善以及歐洲市場的強勁業績。我們估計，由於從第二季末收回了一些延遲發貨，我們的營收淨收益約為 60 個基點，這與惡意軟體事件的恢復有關。當然，本季我們也面臨一些其他挑戰，例如颶風、地震和印度商品及服務稅（GST），但這些挑戰造成的損失非常小。總而言之，我們又實現了一個季度強勁的調整後營業利潤率擴張和兩位數的調整後每股收益成長。

We're pleased with the underlying growth drivers. Our Power Brands grew 3.8%, significantly outpacing the category with Milka and Cadbury Dairy Milk in chocolate and Oreo and belVita in biscuits performing especially well. Emerging markets grew 4.8%, including positive volume growth. Key markets that fueled revenue growth included India, Russia and Mexico. We're seeing sequential acceleration in emerging market category growth, consistent with our view that these markets are generally improving, and we're well positioned to win as conditions continue to improve.

我們對潛在的成長動力感到滿意。我們的主力品牌成長了 3.8%，顯著超過了同類產品，其中巧克力品牌 Milka 和吉百利牛奶巧克力，以及餅乾品牌 Oreo 和 belVita 的表現尤為出色。新興市場成長4.8%，其中銷售量實現正成長。推動營收成長的關鍵市場包括印度、俄羅斯和墨西哥。我們看到新興市場類別的成長正在逐步加速，這與我們對這些市場整體上正在改善的看法一致，隨著市場狀況的持續改善，我們已做好充分準備贏得市場。

Developed markets grew 1.6%, led once again by Europe. Our performance in chocolate was strong across nearly all of our largest markets in the region. For example, in Germany, we expanded market share on a year-to-date basis with distribution gains and the solid performance of Milka. And in the U.K., our Cadbury sponsorship of the Premier League also drove strong share gains.

已開發市場成長1.6%，其中歐洲再次引領成長。我們在該地區幾乎所有最大的市場中，巧克力業務都表現出色。例如，在德國，憑藉分銷管道的拓展和 Milka 的穩健表現，我們今年迄今擴大了市場份額。在英國，吉百利對英超聯賽的贊助也帶來了強勁的市場份額成長。

Our growth strategies continue to gain traction. We're contemporizing our core by distorting resources behind our Power Brands and by upgrading the well-being credentials of our portfolio. Our belVita brand continues to be a standout. It's growing mid-single digits globally, driven by our base breakfast biscuits as well as impactful line extensions like belVita Protein and belVita Bites.

我們的成長策略持續取得成效。我們正透過調整旗下強勢品牌的資源配置，並提升旗下產品組合的健康保障水平，來實現核心業務的現代化。我們的 belVita 品牌一直表現出色。在全球範圍內，該產品實現了中等個位數的成長，這主要得益於我們的基礎早餐餅乾以及 belVita Protein 和 belVita Bites 等具有影響力的產品線延伸。

RITZ Crisp & Thins with all the taste and half the fat of the leading potato chip is taking share and exceeding our expectations. We're also increasing our presence in convenience stores, thanks to our more flexible price pack architecture. And we successfully launched a new savory snack brand, Véa, during the quarter. We're off to a good start as we ramp up distribution.

RITZ 脆薄薯片，擁有領先薯片的全部美味，脂肪含量卻只有一半，正在迅速佔領市場份額，並超越我們的預期。由於我們採用了更靈活的價格包裝方案，我們也在便利商店領域不斷擴大市場份額。本季度，我們成功推出了一個新的鹹味零食品牌 Véa。隨著分銷力度的加大，我們開局良好。

We continue to make good progress as we fill geographic white spaces. Milka OREO Chocolate in the U.S. is performing well, and we've recently expanded our offerings to include Milka Oreo Mint. The repatriation of our Nabisco brands in Japan is also going well as we recently launched Oreo Thins and new Ritz sandwich biscuits. And in China, our Milka brand has established a solid beachhead in the chocolate market in its first year.

我們在填補地理空白方面持續取得良好進展。在美國，Milka OREO 巧克力銷售表現良好，我們最近擴大了產品線，推出了 Milka Oreo 薄荷口味。我們在日本的納貝斯克品牌回歸計畫也進展順利，最近我們推出了奧利奧薄脆餅乾和新款麗滋夾心餅乾。在中國，我們的妙卡品牌在第一年就在巧克力市場站穩了腳步。

Finally, we continue to drive sales and channel ubiquity for our iconic brands with especially strong progress in e-commerce. Across the globe, we delivered net revenue growth of more than 40%, fueled by key markets like China and the U.S. In fact, our U.S. e-commerce net revenues have grown more than 70% year-to-date, and our China e-commerce business grew at twice the growth rate of the online market. These strong results reinforce our belief in the importance and future potential of e-commerce as a key snacking channel, and we've taken the necessary step to capitalize on that opportunity.

最後，我們持續推動旗下標誌性品牌的銷售和通路普及，尤其是在電子商務領域取得了強勁進展。在全球範圍內，我們實現了超過 40% 的淨收入成長，這主要得益於中國和美國等關鍵市場的強勁表現。事實上，我們在美國電子商務領域的淨收入今年迄今已成長超過 70%，而我們在中國電子商務業務的成長速度是線上市場整體成長速度的兩倍。這些強勁的成果增強了我們對電子商務作為重要零食管道的重要性和未來潛力的信念，我們已經採取了必要的措施來抓住這一機會。

Before I turn the call over to Brian, let me comment briefly on North America, which is our only region performing below expectations. We're pleased to have returned North America to positive growth in the quarter, and we're making progress in addressing the challenges we've discussed previously, including recovery from the malware incident.

在將電話轉給布萊恩之前，我想簡要地談談北美地區，這是我們唯一一個業績低於預期的地區。我們很高興北美市場在本季度恢復了正成長，並且在應對我們之前討論過的挑戰方面取得了進展，包括從惡意軟體事件中恢復過來。

Importantly, we're encouraged by the momentum on some of the strategic initiatives that I mentioned earlier, including Milka OREO Chocolate and the rollout of our pipeline of well-being innovations and renovations. Additionally, we continue to see our direct store delivery system as a competitive advantage and expect the benefits of this system to play out more clearly in the coming months.

重要的是，我們受到先前提到的一些策略性舉措進展順利的鼓舞，包括Milka OREO巧克力以及我們一系列健康創新和改進產品的推出。此外，我們仍然認為我們的門市直銷系統是一項競爭優勢，並預計該系統的優勢將在未來幾個月內更加明顯地顯現出來。

That said, we have more work to do for this region to deliver its full potential. We look forward to the arrival of Glen Walter next month. Glen, who we just named as the North America region President, brings an impressive track record of building brands and driving growth in North America and internationally. His operating and sales background have prepared him well to lead our North America business.

儘管如此，我們仍需為該地區充分發揮其潛力而做更多工作。我們期待格倫沃爾特下個月的到來。我們剛任命 Glen 為北美地區總裁，他在北美和國際市場打造品牌和推動成長方面擁有令人矚目的業績。他的營運和銷售背景使他能夠很好地領導我們的北美業務。

As we hand the reins over to Glen, I'd like to take a moment to thank Tim Cofer, who graciously served as Interim President over the past 6 months in addition to his role as Chief Growth Officer. Tim and his team have significantly strengthened the business fundamentals and positioned it for future growth.

在我們將領導權移交給 Glen 之際，我想藉此機會感謝 Tim Cofer，在過去的 6 個月裡，他除了擔任首席增長官之外，還慷慨地擔任了臨時總裁。蒂姆和他的團隊顯著增強了公司的基本面，並為未來的成長奠定了基礎。

Let me now turn it over to Brian to provide more detail on the financials.

現在我把麥克風交給布萊恩，讓他詳細介紹一下財務狀況。

Thanks, Irene, and good afternoon. We're pleased with our results in the third quarter, which played out roughly as we expected. Organic net revenue was up 2.8%, driven by strength in Power Brands, emerging markets and Europe. As Irene mentioned, we benefited from the positive net impact of 60 basis points related to the recovery from malware-related shipment delays in the second quarter.

謝謝你，艾琳，下午好。我們對第三季的業績感到滿意，基本上符合我們的預期。有機淨收入成長 2.8%，主要得益於強勢品牌、新興市場和歐洲市場的強勁表現。正如 Irene 所提到的，我們受益於第二季度因惡意軟體導致的貨物運輸延誤而帶來的 60 個基點的正面淨影響。

However, as we said to expect on our last call, we also experienced some additional malware-related disruptions in the third quarter in certain markets, and that negative impact was most pronounced in North America. Overall, we estimate that the year-to-date negative impact from the malware incident was approximately 60 basis points to organic net revenue or just over $100 million of lost revenue across the business. Importantly, we're now confident that the issues are substantially behind us, and we're back to pre-incident levels of service and operation stability.

然而，正如我們在上次電話會議中所預測的那樣，我們在第三季某些市場也遇到了一些與惡意軟體相關的額外幹擾，而這種負面影響在北美最為明顯。總體而言，我們估計惡意軟體事件對公司今年迄今的有機淨收入造成的負面影響約為 60 個基點，或公司損失了超過 1 億美元的收入。重要的是，我們現在有信心這些問題已基本解決，我們的服務和營運穩定性已恢復到事故發生前的水準。

Emerging markets grew nicely at 4.8%. Our geographic footprint has always been one of the most compelling strengths of our long-term vision for profitable and sustainable growth, and we continue to see positive momentum in many of these countries in terms of macro conditions, our share performance, improved category fundamentals and good balance between vol/mix and pricing.

新興市場成長良好，達 4.8%。我們的地域佈局一直是我們實現盈利和可持續增長長期願景中最引人注目的優勢之一，而且我們繼續看到，在許多國家，宏觀環境、市場份額表現、品類基本面改善以及銷量/組合和定價之間的良好平衡都呈現出積極的勢頭。

Now let's take a closer look at our margin performance. We continued to improve margins with another quarter of strong adjusted OI margin expansion. Adjusted OI margin was 16.9%, an increase of 130 basis points driven by ongoing overhead reductions with improved performance across all regions outside of North America. Our efforts in ZBB, supply chain reinvention and global shared services continue to deliver results, and we see more opportunities in front of us.

現在讓我們仔細看看我們的利潤率表現。我們持續提高利潤率，連續第二季實現了強勁的調整後營業利潤率擴張。經調整後的營業利潤率為 16.9%，成長了 130 個基點，這主要得益於持續的營運成本削減，以及北美以外所有地區業績的改善。我們在零基預算、供應鏈重塑和全球共享服務方面的努力持續取得成效，我們看到了更多機會。

Adjusted gross margin declined 60 basis points. Although we delivered improvements in volume and solid net productivity, these benefits were offset by inflation in dairy costs and select investments in trade spending. We are pricing in our cheese business to offset the dairy inflation and should be more balanced as we enter 2018. On the trade spending, we increased spend in a targeted way in North America as part of our DSD initiatives and in Russia and France where we're seeing good growth and strong returns.

調整後毛利率下降60個基點。儘管我們在產量和淨生產率方面取得了進步，但這些收益被乳製品成本上漲和部分貿易支出投資所抵消。我們將乳酪業務的價格計入了乳製品通膨，預計到 2018 年將更加平衡。在貿易支出方面，我們作為DSD計劃的一部分，有針對性地增加了在北美的支出，並在俄羅斯和法國增加了支出，我們在這些地區看到了良好的增長和強勁的回報。

We continue to feel good about our midterm gross margin opportunity for a few reasons. First, we're delivering strong net productivity at around 3% on a year-to-date basis. Improving volume trends, which we saw this quarter, will also provide cost leverage as we move forward. Second, we're starting to see the transactional benefit of a weaker U.S. dollar in some markets. But it's still early, and there will always be some markets that are exceptions. But this is a good trend for us.

基於以下幾個原因，我們對中期毛利率前景依然充滿信心。首先，我們今年迄今的淨生產力成長強勁，約為 3%。本季銷售成長趨勢的改善，也將為我們未來的發展帶來成本優勢。其次，我們開始看到美元走軟在某些市場帶來的交易好處。但現在下結論還為時過早，總是會有一些市場是例外。但這對我們來說是個好趨勢。

In total, our gross margins are up approximately 300 basis points since 2013, and we see continued gross margin expansion as an important component of our 2018 margin delivery. So we feel good about the adjusted OI margin performance and remain on track to deliver our mid-16% outlook for the year. We also remain committed to our 17% to 18% margin target for 2018.

總體而言，自 2013 年以來，我們的毛利率提高了約 300 個基點，我們認為毛利率的持續擴張是我們 2018 年利潤率實現的重要組成部分。因此，我們對調整後的未平倉合約利潤率表現感到滿意，並有望實現我們今年 16% 左右的預期目標。我們仍將致力於實現 2018 年 17% 至 18% 的利潤率目標。

Let me now turn to our regional performance. 3 of our 4 regions delivered good results, building on the underlying trends from the first half of the year. Europe delivered another strong quarter of margin expansion, with an increase in adjusted OI margin of 70 basis points to 19.4%. Strong net productivity and ongoing overhead reductions drove the improvement. Organic net revenue increased 3.2%, including a benefit due to the recovery from the malware incident. Our Power Brands in this region continued to perform well, driven by solid vol/mix growth.

現在讓我來談談我們區域賽的表現。我們 4 個區域中有 3 個區域取得了良好的業績，延續了上半年的基本趨勢。歐洲本季利潤率再次強勁擴張，調整後的營業利潤率成長了 70 個基點，達到 19.4%。強勁的淨生產力和持續的成本削減推動了這一改善。有機淨收入成長 3.2%，其中包括從惡意軟體事件中恢復帶來的收益。在銷售和產品組合穩健成長的推動下，我們在該地區的強勢品牌持續表現良好。

As Irene mentioned, our European chocolate business delivered strong results in nearly all of our large markets, while both the U.K. and Germany turned in good performances in biscuits, including Oreo, which was up double digits. Our growth was also fueled by our chocobakery business, which generated double-digit increases in Q3, driven by new product launches, including Milka Brownie and Cadbury Roundie.

正如艾琳所提到的，我們的歐洲巧克力業務在幾乎所有主要市場都取得了強勁的業績，而英國和德國的餅乾業務也表現良好，其中奧利奧的銷量增長了兩位數。我們的成長也得益於巧克力烘焙業務，該業務在第三季度實現了兩位數的成長，這主要得益於新產品的推出，包括Milka Brownie和Cadbury Roundie。

Our AMEA region delivered strong growth of approximately 3%. Similar to last quarter, Asia Pacific performed well, while the Middle East was mixed as challenging economic conditions continued, though we are beginning to see easier compares. Adjusted OI margin increased 80 basis points to 13%, driven by lower A&C spend as we selectively pulled back in markets like the Middle East, where we've seen lower ROIs and overhead reductions.

我們的 AMEA 地區實現了約 3% 的強勁成長。與上一季類似，亞太地區表現良好，中東地區表現不一，經濟狀況依​​然嚴峻，不過我們開始看到一些基數較低的情況出現。經調整的營業利潤率成長了 80 個基點，達到 13%，這主要得益於我們在中東等投資回報率較低且管理費用減少的市場中選擇性地減少了廣告和廣告支出。

Our India revenue grew double digits as our chocolate franchise grew share behind ongoing momentum in our core business as well as successful new launches such as Fuse and Silk Oreo. China returned to growth in the quarter. Our Biscuits business improved as we launched low single-digit growth -- as we delivered low single-digit growth led by our Oreo relaunch. In addition, our e-commerce investments continued to drive solid share gains. Our gum business also grew share while Milka chocolate was in line with expectations.

由於核心業務持續成長動能以及 Fuse 和 Silk Oreo 等新產品的成功推出，我們的巧克力特許經營業務市場份額不斷擴大，印度的收入實現了兩位數成長。中國本季恢復成長。我們的餅乾業務有所改善，實現了低個位數成長——這主要得益於我們重新推出的奧利奧產品。此外，我們在電子商務領域的投資持續推動市場佔有率穩定成長。我們的口香糖業務份額也有所增長，而妙卡巧克力的銷量符合預期。

In Latin America, adjusted OI margin increased 230 basis points to 17.7%, primarily driven by lower overhead costs and improved net productivity. Organic net revenue grew 5.4%, which includes a positive impact from the recovery of malware-related shipments. Mexico continued to deliver solid growth driven by strength in candy, while growth in Argentina was led by pricing to offset currency-driven inflation.

在拉丁美洲，經調整的營業利潤率成長了 230 個基點，達到 17.7%，主要得益於管理費用降低和淨生產力提高。有機淨收入成長 5.4%，其中包括惡意軟體相關出貨量恢復帶來的正面影響。墨西哥在糖果市場的強勁推動下繼續保持穩健成長，而阿根廷的成長則主要由價格因素抵消匯率波動導致的通貨膨脹所驅動。

In Brazil, improving dynamics in chocolate drove a fourth straight quarter of growth, and as we've said, our Biscuits business continued to face headwinds from price gaps and down trading. In response, we're making appropriate adjustments to increase the range of our portfolio. Overall, Brazil was up low single digits in the quarter.

在巴西，巧克力市場動態的改善推動了連續第四個季度的成長，正如我們所說，我們的餅乾業務繼續面臨價格差距和降級消費的不利影響。為此，我們正在做出適當調整，以擴大我們的投資組合範圍。總體而言，巴西本季實現了個位數低成長。

Turning to North America. Organic net revenue grew 1%. These results were driven by an increase in U.S. Biscuits partially offset by lower gum revenue. As I said, malware-related disruptions continued to present challenges. The good news is that we now believe that these issues are substantially behind us.

轉向北美。有機淨收入成長1%。這些業績成長主要得益於美國餅乾收入的成長，但部分被口香糖收入的下降所抵銷。正如我所說，惡意軟體相關的干擾仍然帶來挑戰。好消息是，我們現在認為這些問題基本上已經過去了。

As Irene mentioned, we still believe the DSD model provides us with a number of competitive advantages. While the persistent malware-related issues impacted our ability to capture the initial market share opportunities in the quarter, we remain confident that we will see incremental share gains as we move through the next few quarters. Despite the challenges in North America, it's encouraging to see the improved trajectory in our revenue performance and some recent improvement in category growth.

正如 Irene 所提到的，我們仍然相信 DSD 模式為我們提供了許多競爭優勢。雖然持續存在的惡意軟體相關問題影響了我們在本季度抓住最初市場份額機會的能力，但我們仍然相信，隨著未來幾季的推進，我們將看到市場份額的逐步增長。儘管北美市場面臨許多挑戰，但令人鼓舞的是，我們的營收表現呈現改善趨勢，且近期品類成長也有所提升。

Now let me spend a few moments providing some highlights by category. Snacking category growth improved incrementally on a year-to-date basis, now at 1.8%, but our overall share results were mixed. Our Biscuits business was essentially flat, driven by strength in key countries such as the U.K. and Germany, offset by year-to-date weakness in the U.S., which was partially driven by malware-related issues early in the quarter. Approximately 30% of our year-to-date revenue grew or held share in this category. As our DSD initiatives gain traction, we expect to see improvements in this metric.

現在讓我花幾分鐘時間按類別介紹一些亮點。今年迄今為止，零食品類的成長略有改善，目前為 1.8%，但我們的整體市佔率結果卻是喜憂參半。我們的餅乾業務基本上持平，這主要得益於英國和德國等主要國家的強勁表現，但被美國年初至今的疲軟所抵消，而美國業務的疲軟部分是由於本季度初與惡意軟體相關的問題造成的。今年迄今為止，我們約有 30% 的收入成長或維持了該類別的市場份額。隨著我們的DSD計劃取得進展，我們預計該指標將有所改善。

In chocolate, our business grew mid-single digits, driven by strong results in India, the U.K., Germany and Russia. The U.S. chocolate expansion also continued to be a solid contributor to growth. Approximately 65% of our year-to-date revenue grew or held share in this category. In fact, our chocolate business has gained more share this year than any other competitor in the market.

在巧克力業務方面，我們的業務實現了中等個位數的成長，這主要得益於印度、英國、德國和俄羅斯市場的強勁業績。美國巧克力市場的擴張也持續為經濟成長做出穩健貢獻。今年迄今為止，我們約 65% 的收入在該類別中實現了成長或維持了市場份額。事實上，今年我們的巧克力業務獲得的市場份額比市場上任何其他競爭對手都多。

Gum & Candy declined mid-single digits as gum category weakness persisted, most notably in the U.S. Only about 20% of our year-to-date revenue in Gum & Candy gained or held share. Consistent with our commentary last quarter, our focus is on stabilizing our share within the category while migrating our portfolio toward candy and mints to meet consumers' refreshment needs.

由於口香糖類別持續疲軟，尤其是在美國，口香糖和糖果業務的銷售額出現了中等個位數的下滑。今年迄今為止，口香糖和糖果業務的收入中只有約 20% 實現了市場份額的成長或保持穩定。與上個季度的評論一致，我們的重點是穩定我們在該品類中的份額，同時將我們的產品組合轉向糖果和薄荷糖，以滿足消費者的提神需求。

Turning to earnings per share. We delivered adjusted EPS of $0.57, up 12% on a constant currency basis, primarily driven by our strong operating income growth. We continue to expect to deliver double-digit EPS growth on a constant currency basis for the full year.

接下來看每股收益。我們調整後的每股盈餘為 0.57 美元，以固定匯率計算成長 12%，主要得益於我們強勁的營業收入成長。我們仍預計全年以固定匯率計算的每股盈餘將達到兩位數成長。

We also continued to reward our shareholders with strong return of capital. In the quarter, we returned approximately $1 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. As you know, we recently raised our dividend by 16%. As our long-term free cash flow improves, we're targeting to grow our dividend faster than adjusted EPS.

我們也繼續以豐厚的資本回報回報股東。本季度，我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了約 10 億美元。如您所知，我們最近將股息提高了16%。隨著我們長期自由現金流的改善，我們的目標是使股息成長速度超過調整後每股盈餘的成長速度。

Let me review our outlook for the year. We now expect an organic net revenue growth of approximately 1% given the large -- larger-than-expected magnitude of the lost revenue related to the malware incident. We still expect to deliver adjusted OI margin in the mid-16% range and double-digit adjusted EPS growth on a constant currency basis. We now expect no currency impact for the year. And with respect to free cash flow, we continue to expect to deliver approximately $2 billion for the year.

讓我回顧一下我們今年的展望。鑑於惡意軟體事件造成的收入損失規模龐大（超出預期），我們現在預期有機淨收入成長約為 1%。我們仍預期調整後的營業利潤率將達到 16% 左右，以固定匯率計算，調整後的每股盈餘將達到兩位數成長。我們現在預計今年不會受到匯率影響。至於自由現金流，我們仍然預計今年將實現約 20 億美元。

In summary, many of our global markets and categories are improving, and we remain focused on driving improved top line performance while maintaining discipline around operational efficiency and margin expansion. We're encouraged as we see macro trends that have been headwinds over the past several quarters turn more favorable, including improving GDP, global consumer trends and accelerating category growth in emerging markets and more favorable exchange rates in both developed and emerging markets.

總而言之，我們的許多全球市場和品類都在改善，我們將繼續專注於提高營收，同時維持營運效率和利潤率擴張的紀律。令人鼓舞的是，我們看到過去幾季以來一直構成不利因素的宏觀趨勢正在變得更加有利，包括 GDP 改善、全球消費趨勢和新興市場品類成長加速，以及已開發市場和新興市場匯率更加有利。

In addition, many of our recent growth investments are delivering solid results, including in well-being, in white space expansion and in penetrating other channels, especially e-commerce. As a result, we remain confident that we're well positioned to deliver sustainable growth on both the top and bottom lines over the long term.

此外，我們近期在成長方面的許多投資都取得了顯著成效，包括健康領域、空白市場拓展以及滲透其他管道，尤其是電子商務。因此，我們仍然有信心，我們有能力在長期內實現營收和利潤的可持續成長。

Now let me turn it back to Irene for some concluding remarks.

現在，我把麥克風交還給艾琳，讓她做些總結發言。

Thanks, Brian. For the past 3 months, we've been preparing for a smooth transition as Dirk Van de Put takes over as CEO next month. Dirk has already been engaged in our 2018 financial planning process, and over the next few weeks, he'll be spending time getting immersed in the business as he begins working with our management team, our board and other key stakeholders. And of course, we expect our strategic planning process will be a key focus for Dirk in the first half of 2018.

謝謝你，布萊恩。過去三個月，我們一直在為下個月 Dirk Van de Put 接任執行長一職的平穩過渡做準備。Dirk 已經參與到我們 2018 年的財務規劃過程中，在接下來的幾周里，他將花時間深入了解業務，開始與我們的管理團隊、董事會和其他主要利益相關者合作。當然，我們預期策略規劃流程將是德克在 2018 年上半年的工作重點。

It's hard to believe that earlier this month marked the 5-year anniversary of Mondelez International. I'm very proud of the company we built and the shareholder value we've delivered over that time. I'm pleased to see the macro environment and the underlying business momentum beginning to improve, and I'm confident that Dirk and the team will build on this momentum to take our company to the next level.

很難相信，就在本月初，億滋國際迎來了成立五週年紀念日。我為我們創建的公司以及我們在此期間為股東創造的價值感到非常自豪。我很高興看到宏觀環境和潛在的商業勢頭開始改善，我相信德克和他的團隊將在此勢頭的基礎上，帶領公司邁向新的高度。

It's been a privilege to have created and led this great company and a pleasure to have worked with all of you over the years. I especially want to thank my partner, Brian Gladden, and the rest of my leadership team as well as my 90,000 colleagues around the world for your passion, your hard work and your tireless commitment to our company in the exceptionally challenging environment over the past few years. Through it all, you kept your eyes on the prize, and I truly believe the best is yet to come.

能夠創建並領導這家偉大的公司是我的榮幸，多年來與大家共事也讓我感到非常愉快。我特別要感謝我的合夥人布萊恩·格拉登，以及我的領導團隊的其他成員，還有我遍布全球的 9 萬名同事，感謝你們在過去幾年充滿挑戰的環境中，對我們公司所展現出的熱情、辛勤工作和不懈奉獻。一路走來，你始終沒有放棄目標，我真心相信最好的還在後頭。

With that, let's open the line for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Ken Goldman with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ken Goldman。

Irene, thank you for your help over the years and best of luck to you ahead. I get the feeling that you'll have a more active retirement than most retirees out there knowing you, so again, thanks again. I wanted to ask 2 questions if I could. You talked about your commitment to your margin target for next year, but you also talked about the process of strategic planning still being underway. So Irene, if I could ask you to sort of put on your Chairman of the Board hat right now and knowing Dirk, what is -- what are his thoughts in terms of the margin targets for next year? Is there much of a risk, in your view, of him tweaking them down a little bit? Sometimes, new CEOs come in and want to set the bar a little bit lower. So that would be my first question, is sort of what are your thoughts on that. And my second question is -- and I think you sort of highlighted this a little bit in your optimism about the environment. But how do you feel, in general, about the environment for you in 2018 and in terms of the sales line? And do you feel like you'll need to invest more in gross margin to kind of hit your sales numbers? Or is the macro trend going to be enough?

艾琳，感謝你這些年來的幫助，祝福你未來一切順利。認識你的人都覺得，你的退休生活會比大多數退休人士更豐富多彩，所以再次感謝你。如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題。您談到了您對明年利潤率目標的承諾，但您也談到了策略規劃過程仍在進行中。所以艾琳，如果我可以請你現在以董事長的身份，以德克的視角來談談，你認為他對明年的利潤率目標有什麼看法？你認為他稍微調整一下這些參數的風險很高嗎？有時候，新上任的CEO會想把標準降低一些。所以我的第一個問題是，您對此有何看法？我的第二個問題是——我認為您在對環境的樂觀態度中已經稍微強調了這一點。但總的來說，您對 2018 年的產業環境以及銷售業績有何感受？你是否覺得需要增加對毛利率的投資才能達到銷售目標？或者說，宏觀趨勢就夠了嗎？

So first of all, Ken, I'm sure you'll have a chance to engage with Dirk over the coming months. He's actually going to officially start on November 20. He's been involved in a number of areas, as I mentioned, particularly the development of the 2018 plan to ensure a smooth transition. So we start there. Brian continues to confirm our margin target for 2018 between 17% and 18%, but certainly, our strategic plan will be a key focus of Dirk's in the first half of the year. That said, we fully understand that margin targets are very much top of mind, and I can assure you that Dirk fully appreciates the importance of margin delivery to our overall algorithm. So I think, in the spirit of you've got to wait until he gets here, I think we can give you as much assurance as that.

首先，肯，我相信在接下來的幾個月裡，你肯定有機會和德克交流。他實際上將於11月20日正式上任。正如我之前提到的，他參與了許多領域的工作，特別是製定 2018 年計劃以確保平穩過渡。我們就從這裡開始。Brian 繼續確認我們 2018 年的利潤率目標在 17% 到 18% 之間，但可以肯定的是，我們的策略計畫將是 Dirk's 今年上半年的重點。也就是說，我們完全理解保證金目標非常重要，我可以向你保證，Dirk 完全理解保證金交付對我們整體演算法的重要性。所以我覺得，本著「你得等到他來了才能知道結果」的精神，我們可以給你的保證也就只有這些了。

Ken, I would just say, obviously, to deliver on '18, the plans and actions are underway. I mean, it's not like we can decide that in January and deliver. So there's been a lot of work, and Dirk has been very engaged in that process. We also gave you some clarity. So we're not giving guidance today obviously for '18, but we've confirmed the margin target. And we've talked about cash flow. We still feel good about $2.8 billion of cash flow for next year. So maybe those are 2 hints as to where we're headed. In terms of the trends that we're seeing in the environment, maybe just a few comments, and we've talked about most of these. But the global economy's consumer sentiment, generally improving in most markets. Emerging market's favorable, and obviously, that's good for us given our exposure. But I would also say that Europe feels pretty good. It's about 40% of our revenue, and it's solid and stable and growing. Category trends, I'd say they've stabilized a bit and some recent improvement over the last couple months but maybe a little too early to start the call that yet but not a bad trend. North America packaged food trends, I think that will continue to be a challenge, and that's a place that we're planning for that environment to continue. Commodities and currency, I guess, I would say they appear to be, for us, relatively stable year-over-year in how you think about that in aggregate. We obviously have favorability in cocoa, but we're offset with pressure in things like packaging and dairy and transportation even. So maybe some overall tailwind there, but we're planning for relatively stable. And then maybe the last piece, just as we think about tax rates, probably roughly the same in '18 as what we would see in '17, short of getting some clarity on what U.S. reform looks like. So maybe a few pieces of insight as we think about the environment and how we're thinking about '18 without really giving you the guidance at this point.

肯，我只想說，很顯然，為了實現 2018 年的目標，計劃和行動正在進行中。我的意思是，我們不可能在一月就做出決定然後立即執行。所以這段期間做了很多工作，德克也積極參與其中。我們也為您澄清了一些問題。所以，我們今天顯然不會給出 2018 年的業績指引，但我們已經確認了利潤率目標。我們已經討論過現金流問題了。我們仍然對明年28億美元的現金流充滿信心。所以，這或許可以作為我們未來走向的兩個線索。就我們目前在環境方面看到的趨勢而言，可能只有幾點要補充說明，而我們已經討論過其中的大部分趨勢。但全球經濟的消費者信心在大多數市場整體上有所改善。新興市場情況有利，鑑於我們的投資曝險，這顯然對我們有利。但我還要說，歐洲感覺相當不錯。這部分收入約占我們總收入的 40%，而且非常穩健，還在持續成長。就品類趨勢而言，我認為已經趨於穩定，並且在過去幾個月裡有所改善，但現在就下結論可能還為時過早，但這並非一個糟糕的趨勢。我認為北美包裝食品的趨勢將繼續是一個挑戰，而我們正在為應對這種環境而製定計劃。就大宗商品和貨幣而言，我認為，從整體來看，它們似乎相對穩定，同比波動較大。我們在可可方面顯然具有優勢，但我們在包裝、乳製品甚至運輸等領域都面臨壓力，從而抵消了這些優勢。所以可能總體上會有一些順風，但我們預期情況會相對穩定。最後，就像我們考慮稅率一樣，2018 年的稅率可能與 2017 年的稅率大致相同，除非美國稅制改革的方向更明確。所以，當我們思考環境以及我們對 2018 年的看法時，也許會有一些見解，但目前我不會真正給你任何指導。

And your next question comes from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的布萊恩‧斯皮蘭。

Best of luck to you, Irene. So couple of questions. First, I guess, as a follow-up to Ken's question, the first, just gross margins in the quarter were, I guess, down versus last year, but operating profit margins expanded. So just in terms of how the P&L's shaped, how was that relative to what your expectations were, I guess, going into the quarter, meaning, I guess, were gross margins in line, better or worse than what you were thinking?

祝你好運，艾琳。我有幾個問題。首先，我想作為對 Ken 問題的補充，第一點，本季的毛利率與去年相比有所下降，但營業利潤率有所擴大。那麼，就損益表的組成而言，它與您在本季初的預期相比如何？我的意思是，毛利率是否符合您的預期，還是比您預想的更好或更差？

Look, I think they were a little bit tougher. As I said, higher input costs, specifically dairy fats have been challenging over the course of the last several months here. And we're now in the process of raising prices. Just can't really raise them fast enough. And then the trade spend, I think we were thoughtful and knew we were going to make some of those decisions to spend some of those dollars. But look, I would just go back to midterm reality around gross margins. We've delivered 300 basis points improvement. It's about half of the expansion that we've delivered over the last few years, and we're executing pretty well. I mean, our execution was as expected around net productivity and the COGS reduction programs that we have. So I think the one outlier was really dairy fats and how we sort of had to manage that across the cheese business.

你看，我覺得他們稍微強硬一點。正如我所說，過去幾個月來，較高的投入成本，特別是乳脂成本，給我們帶來了挑戰。我們現在正在提價。就是養育速度跟不上他們的需求。至於貿易支出，我認為我們經過深思熟慮，並且知道我們將要做出一些決定來花掉其中的一些錢。但是，我還是會回到中期毛利率的實際情況來看這個問題。我們取得了300個基點的提升。這大約是我們過去幾年擴張總量的一半，而且我們執行得相當不錯。我的意思是，我們在淨生產力和降低銷售成本方面的執行情況符合預期。所以我認為唯一例外的情況是乳脂，以及我們在整個起司業務中如何管理乳脂。

And then, I guess, my second question, just if emerging markets in Europe continue to get a little bit better as we're looking out, I guess, into '18 and '19 maybe, can you just talk about how much flexibility there is to invest behind that in the -- in your current plans and I guess, if volumes actually start to grow, how that affects leverage and maybe the margin expansion? We've been all so focused on cost reductions to drive margins, but to the extent that there's some volume growth, just how that might affect the margins and margin expansion?

那麼，我的第二個問題是，如果歐洲新興市場在我們展望 2018 年和 2019 年的時候繼續好轉，您能否談談在您目前的計劃中，有多少靈活性可以用於投資？如果銷售量真的開始成長，這將如何影響槓桿率和利潤率的擴張？我們一直專注於降低成本以提高利潤率，但如果銷售量有所成長，這會對利潤率和利潤率擴張產生怎樣的影響呢？

Yes, Brian. I mean, that's obviously -- we saw the early stages of some volume improvement. A lot of it was driven by Europe in the quarter, but obviously, that helps us a lot as you think about volume absorption, plant leverage and the capacity equation in the manufacturing world. So I think that's going to be a -- as we think about next year and look at the trends, it's encouraging to see some of that volume improvement. And we feel good about the underlying dynamics in emerging markets. That is -- we've been distorting to Power Brands. We've been distorting to some of these markets that have seen improvement. And India is probably the best example where we've been able to put some additional spending up against the growth, and I think we've seen very good returns for that. So it's par for the course in terms of our strategy, and I think you'll see us react as these markets get better to be able to put some additional spending to play.

是的，布萊恩。我的意思是，很明顯——我們已經看到了銷售改善的早期階段。本季很大程度上是由歐洲市場推動的，但顯然，這在考慮製造業的銷售吸收、工廠槓桿和產能平衡時對我們大有幫助。所以我認為，當我們展望明年並觀察發展趨勢時，看到銷量有所改善，這令人鼓舞。我們對新興市場的潛在動態感到樂觀。也就是說——我們一直在扭曲事實，將其歸類為「強勢品牌」。我們一直在向一些已經有所改善的市場傾斜。印度可能是最好的例子，我們能夠透過增加支出來促進經濟成長，我認為我們已經看到了非常好的回報。所以，這符合我們的策略慣例，我認為隨著這些市場好轉，我們將加大投入，你會看到我們做出相應的反應。

But also, don't underestimate the impact that the volatile commodities as well as the strong dollar had in terms of our pricing actions, which then put a lot of pressure on volume. So one of the reasons the macro environment improvement is encouraging is it's going to allow us to temper a lot of those actions, which should also, in turn, help volume in addition to the other actions we're taking.

但同時，也不要低估波動的大宗商品和強勢美元對我們的定價策略的影響，這給交易量帶來了很大的壓力。因此，宏觀環境改善令人鼓舞的原因之一是，它將使我們能夠緩和許多此類行動，這反過來也應該有助於提高交易量，再加上我們正在採取的其他行動。

And your next question comes from the line of Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

你的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的安德魯·拉扎爾。

Irene, I was hoping maybe to get a little more perspective from you, particularly as you head off into whatever you'll do next, really, on the state of the industry. I guess, you've worked on many different brands and categories, multiple capacities for various companies. And I think given your tenure, I guess, my question is, is this time different because if one listens to many of the headlines about the death of brands and private label taking over and all the rhetoric from retailers and so on, I guess, one would be led to think that this time is different, even though the industry's weathered many disruptive forces before and seemingly always found ways to thrive. So I guess, I was hopeful to get perspective there, do bolder actions need to be taken? And I know it's a broad question, but you've sat at kind of the nexus of many of these forces for some time, and I think your unvarnished perspective would be valuable.

艾琳，我原本希望能夠從你那裡獲得一些關於行業現狀的看法，尤其是在你即將開始下一步工作的時候。我想，你一定為許多不同的品牌和類別工作過，也曾在多家公司擔任過多種職務。鑑於您的任期，我​​想問的是，這次的情況是否有所不同？因為如果聽聽很多關於品牌消亡、自有品牌崛起以及零售商各種言論的新聞標題，我想人們會認為這次的情況有所不同，儘管該行業以前經歷過許多顛覆性力量，而且似乎總能找到蓬勃發展的方法。所以我想，我希望能從中得到一些啟發，是否需要採取更大膽的行動？我知道這是一個很寬泛的問題，但你已經處於許多這類力量的交匯點一段時間了，我認為你直言不諱的觀點會很有價值。

Yes. I think as we -- as I have witnessed the evolution of the industry, there have been cosmic changes every couple of years throughout that tenure, whether you think about the advent of the supercenter, you think about the rise -- the beginning of the rise of e-commerce. We have seen many different trends. And those companies that have been successful have seen those trends coming and have addressed them. So I don't think this is radically different. I do think the speed of the changes is perhaps more pronounced than we might have seen in the past. But I have great confidence as we look ahead, particularly to what we're seeing going on, on the consumer front, the customer front and the channel shifts that we're well positioned. But I do think companies have to take those cosmic changes quite seriously and have to adapt accordingly. But I don't believe that this is a radically different set of circumstances than we would have seen in the past. They're different. But we've seen a fairly sizable evolution in our industry over the last decade, and the winners have adapted to it accordingly.

是的。我認為，正如我親眼見證了該行業的演變，在我的職業生涯中，每隔幾年就會發生翻天覆地的變化，無論是超級中心的出現，還是電子商務的興起——電子商務的興起。我們已經看到了很多不同的趨勢。那些取得成功的公司已經預見到這些趨勢並採取了應對措施。所以我認為這並沒有本質上的差異。我認為這些變化的速度或許比我們過去所看到的更為顯著。但展望未來，尤其是從我們目前在消費者、客戶和管道轉變方面所看到的情況來看，我非常有信心我們已經做好了充分的準備。但我認為，企業必須認真看待這些宇宙變化，並做出相應的調整。但我並不認為這與我們過去所遇到的情況有根本性的不同。它們不一樣。但在過去十年中，我們所在產業發生了相當大的變化，而成功的企業也相應地適應了這種變化。

And your next question comes from the line of Alexia Howard with Bernstein.

你的下一個問題來自 Alexia Howard 與 Bernstein 的對話。

First of all, thank you so much, Irene, for all your help over the years and all the best with whatever comes next. Couple of questions. Firstly, on the trade investments that you called out this quarter as pressuring the gross margin, could you give us a little bit more color on where by geography and by category those might have been stepped up? And do you expect those to accelerate going forward? And then the second follow-up question is really around North America. It feels as though there hasn't been the big push behind North America -- the North American chocolate launch. You mentioned it in the prepared remarks, but we haven't really seen a big marketing campaign, I don't believe yet. And similarly with the taking advantage of the Kellogg's DSD system, again, you alluded to that being things that are yet to come. Could you just comment on whether we really are going to see some meaningful step-ups there?

首先，艾琳，非常感謝你這些年來的幫助，祝你未來一切順利。我有幾個問題。首先，關於您在本季提到的對毛利率構成壓力的貿易投資，您能否詳細說明這些投資在哪些地區和哪些類別中有所增加？你預期這些趨勢未來會加速發展嗎？第二個後續問題其實與北美有關。感覺北美市場並沒有被大力推動──北美巧克力市場的發展並沒有達到預期成果。您在準備好的演講稿中提到了這一點，但我認為我們還沒有真正看到大規模的行銷活動。同樣，關於利用 Kellogg 的 DSD 系統，你也暗示過這是未來將會發生的事情。您能否就此發表一下看法，我們是否真的會看到這方面取得一些實質進展？

I'll take the first part on trade spend. As I said, the first place that you would have seen that was North America. We made some decisions to put some trade spend to work as part of the conversations that we're having around the DSD transition. I would say given the malware issues, we haven't quite seen that pay off yet, but we feel good about the payback on those decisions. And that'll play out, as we said, over the next couple quarters. The others were really European markets. Russia would be one. France, we've put some trade spend in play. And again, we feel like those are high ROI decisions. We more or less moved advertising and consumer promotion spend into trade, and we got good payback for that. And you would see that in the shared data in those markets.

我來回答關於貿易支出的第一部分。正如我所說，你最先看到這種情況的地方是北美。我們做出了一些決定，將部分貿易支出用於我們正在進行的關於DSD過渡的討論中。考慮到惡意軟體問題，我認為我們還沒有完全看到這些措施帶來的回報，但我們對這些決定的回報感到滿意。正如我們所說，這種情況將在接下來的幾季內逐漸顯現。其他的市場其實都是歐洲市場。俄羅斯將是其中之一。法國，我們已經投入了一些貿易支出。我們再次認為這些都是高投資報酬率的決策。我們基本上把廣告和消費者促銷支出轉移到了貿易領域，並且獲得了良好的回報。你會在這些市場的共享數據中看到這一點。

As we think about -- Alexia, as we look to the balance of the year, as we said, we have -- we think we're pretty well positioned to begin to capitalize on the opportunity in North America. We have significantly put the malware issues behind us as Brian mentioned. We are starting to see the hard work that Tim Cofer and the team have done to stabilize the business and improve our execution. We saw the Biscuit category turn positive for the first time this year, and we've got a number of investments, some of which you mentioned, that are starting to come into the marketplace. Véa launched at the end of July. belVita Protein is now fully in the market and doing well. Our Ritz share continues to grow behind RITZ Crisp & Thins. We're pleased with the momentum on U.S. chocolate. We're off to a good start there, both in terms of velocity and repeat rates. So we have a number of the elements that are starting to come together, and we are quite optimistic as we look to the fourth quarter and then out into 2018. Obviously, Glen Walter's arrival will be an important catalyst to build on all of this momentum, but we are quite optimistic as we look ahead.

展望今年剩餘的時間，正如我們所說，Alexia，我們認為我們已經做好了充分的準備，可以開始抓住北美市場的機會。正如布萊恩所說，我們已經基本解決了惡意軟體問題。我們開始看到蒂姆·科弗和他的團隊為穩定業務和提高執行力所付出的辛勤努力。今年我們看到餅乾類別首次轉正，我們有一些投資項目（其中一些你也提到過）已經開始進入市場。Véa於7月底上線。belVita蛋白粉現已全面上市，且銷售情況良好。RITZ Crisp & Thins 的市佔率持續成長，Ritz 的市佔率也隨之擴大。我們對美國巧克力市場的發展動能感到滿意。無論從速度或重複率來看，我們都取得了良好的開端。因此，許多因素開始匯聚在一起，我們對第四季以及2018年都相當樂觀。顯然，格倫沃特的到來將是鞏固這一勢頭的重要催化劑，但我們對未來充滿樂觀。

Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Grainger with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的馬修‧格蘭傑。

Irene, best of luck to you as well. I just had one more follow-up question on North America. The message still seems to be pretty cautious on the near to midterm outlook. But as I look at results in the third quarter, sales improved quite a bit sequentially and were probably essentially in line with our expectations and maybe a bit ahead of consensus despite the fact that you have these additional malware headwinds. So I guess, I'm just wondering, is that a reflection in the short term of comps? Or was there any acceleration in shipments around the innovation pipeline? And then as you've moved through the process of shelf resets in the Biscuit category, can you give us a sense for how that process tracked versus your expectations?

艾琳，也祝你好運。我還有一個關於北美的後續問題。對於中短期前景，資訊似乎仍然相當謹慎。但從第三季的業績來看，銷售額環比大幅成長，基本上符合我們的預期，甚至可能略高於市場普遍預期，儘管面臨惡意軟體帶來的額外不利因素。所以我想知道，這是否反映了短期內比賽的情況？或者說，創新產品線的出貨速度是否有加速？然後，隨著餅乾品類貨架重置工作的進行，您能否向我們介紹一下該過程與您的預期相比如何？

Yes. So the year-over-year comparison should not have been -- the year ago should not have been a factor. We are truly starting to see our execution come together. Obviously, we were flying blind in -- on some of our inventory for some of our products over the course of the summertime. But as we exited Q3, most of those issues, as we've said, are substantially resolved. We are seeing retailers begin to reset their shelves. We're seeing our displays in share of shelf increasing, and we should see that play through, as we've said, in our biscuit shares for the balance of the year. So we are not particularly bullish on the near-term North American market, but we do believe that our business within that environment should start to pick up.

是的。所以不應該進行同比比較——一年前的情況不應該成為一個因素。我們真的開始看到我們的執行方案逐漸奏效了。顯然，在整個夏季，我們對某些產品的庫存都是盲目摸索的。但正如我們所說，隨著第三季結束，大多數問題都已基本解決。我們看到零售商開始重新調整貨架擺放。我們看到我們的產品在貨架上的份額正在增加，正如我們所說，我們應該會在今年剩餘的時間裡看到餅乾市場份額的提升。因此，我們對近期北美市場並不特別看好，但我們相信，我們在該地區的業務應該會開始好轉。

Yes. I think it's a little early. I mean, we're seeing some improvement in the overall category trends in North America in U.S. Biscuits, but I think it's a little early to declare that, that's headed in the right direction.

是的。我覺得現在有點早。我的意思是，我們看到北美地區美國餅乾的整體品類趨勢有所改善，但我認為現在就斷言這正朝著正確的方向發展還為時過早。

And just, I guess, one more question on biscuits on more of a global scale. (inaudible) malware-related issues in North America but the market share trends in terms of gaining and holding did weaken sequentially. Is that principally a reflection of that malware shift? Or are there any other areas of market share pressure globally, maybe just sort of hotspots from pricing perspective that would have showed up in the quarter?

最後，我想再問一個關於全球範圍內餅乾的問題。（聽不清楚）北美地區的惡意軟體相關問題，但市場佔有率的成長和維持趨勢確實逐週減弱。這主要反映了惡意軟體的這種轉變嗎？或者說，全球範圍內是否存在其他市場份額壓力領域，例如價格方面的熱點地區，這些熱點地區會在本季度有所體現？

Yes -- no, Matthew, really, the major pressure on the biscuit -- our global biscuit share was North America. In fact, if our U.S. Biscuits had held share, our biscuits would have been growing at -- about 80% would have been growing. So it's all about the turnaround in North America, and as we've said, we have good confidence that we will start to see that improve.

是的——不，馬修，真的，餅乾面臨的主要壓力——我們在全球餅乾市場份額中的主要來源地是北美。事實上，如果我們的美國餅乾保持了市場份額，我們的餅乾銷量將會成長——大約 80% 的銷量將會成長。所以一切都取決於北美市場的好轉，正如我們所說，我們很有信心，我們將開始看到情況有所改善。

And of the lost revenue related to malware, the majority came -- the truly [stuck as] lost consumption was in North America and in U.S. Biscuits.

與惡意軟體相關的收入損失中，大部分——真正損失的消費——發生在北美和美國餅乾產業。

And your next question comes from Steven Strycula with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Steven Strycula。

So 2 questions. The first one would be for Brian. Can you help us understand the implied fourth quarter revenue acceleration ex the shift, specifically giving us some better texture as to what's driving the underlying baseline improvement? You called out emerging markets. I'm just curious if there's anything else that you'd put a finer point on. And then I got a question for Irene.

所以有兩個問題。第一份是給布萊恩的。您能否幫助我們理解剔除轉型因素後隱含的第四季營收加速成長，特別是詳細分析推動基本面改善的因素？你提到了新興市場。我只是好奇你是否有其他需要補充說明的地方。然後我問了艾琳一個問題。

Yes. Look, I think there's reasonably good momentum in the majority of the emerging markets. I would call out 2 unusuals that gave us a little bit of help in the fourth quarter, the first being the year-over-year impact to demonetization in India. And then the second would be inventory trade stock levels, especially in the Middle East where we had some adjustments. So I think those are 2 things that give us a little bit better number in terms of reported results. But the momentum in general is good, and we see it continuing.

是的。我認為，大多數新興市場的發展勢頭都相當不錯。我想特別指出兩個在第四季度為我們帶來一些幫助的特殊因素，第一個是印度廢鈔令帶來的同比影響。其次是庫存貿易庫存水平，尤其是在中東地區，我們在那裡進行了一些調整。所以我認為這兩件事讓我們在報告結果方面得到更好的數據。但整體勢頭良好，我們預計這種勢頭將持續下去。

Okay, great. And then, Irene, if you had another 2 or 3 years in your current role, what do you think would be the largest payback or quickest payback on investments that you could have out there for your business? Would it be greater sales force internationally and emerging markets? What would be the quickest and largest payback on your investment?

好的，太好了。那麼，艾琳，如果你還能在目前的職位上再待 2 到 3 年，你認為對你的企業來說，哪些投資能帶來最大的回報或最快的回報？是否需要擴大國際和新興市場的銷售團隊？怎樣的投資才能獲得最快、最大的報酬？

I actually think, as we see the economy recovering around the world, I think we're seeing very good payback in both our developed and our emerging markets. So I would have told you a couple of years ago that the big return would have come from emerging markets. As we've watched the challenges in those markets over the last couple of years, that's been less evident. And at this point, we're getting a very nice return on our investments in Europe. And as North America comes back, we expect to see that as well. Those are our highest margin markets in the world, and so that's a great place to invest. But at the same time, we are seeing our category growth come back quite dramatically in the emerging markets, and so that's -- we're being quite planful in terms of thinking about where to invest there. So actually, the recovery of the broader macro environment will benefit both our developed as well as our emerging markets looking ahead.

實際上，我認為隨著世界各地經濟的復甦，無論是在已開發市場還是新興市場，我們都看到了非常好的回報。所以幾年前我會告訴你，最大的報酬將來自新興市場。過去幾年，我們觀察了這些市場面臨的挑戰，發現這一點並不那麼明顯。目前，我們在歐洲的投資獲得了非常可觀的回報。隨著北美地區的復甦，我們預計也會看到這種情況。這些是我們全球利潤率最高的市場，因此是絕佳的投資之地。但同時，我們看到新興市場的品類成長出現了相當顯著的回升，因此，我們在考慮在哪裡投資方面，也進行了相當周密的計劃。因此，從長遠來看，宏觀環境的整體復甦實際上將有利於我們的已開發市場和新興市場。

And your next question comes from the line of David Driscoll with Citigroup.

你的下一個問題來自花旗集團的戴維·德里斯科爾。

Congratulations, Irene, on the retirement, and thanks for everything over the many, many years. Two questions for me. First on the DSD. To be clear, did you guys say that the malware issues were what really prevented the DSD team from executing even better during the third quarter? Was that the correct takeaway to link those 2 issues together?

恭喜艾琳光榮退休，感謝你多年來的付出。我有兩個問題。首先是DSD。說清楚點，你們是不是說惡意軟體問題才是真正阻礙 DSD 團隊在第三季表現更出色的原因？將這兩個問題連結起來的結論是否正確？

Yes, it really came down to our ability to serve and customer service and operations, and the results were somewhat challenged by the carryover impacts from malware. So yes, I think as I said, we're substantially past that. We're back to service levels that we would expect in the business, and we're going at it now.

是的，最終取決於我們的服務能力、客戶服務和運營，而惡意軟體的後續影響在一定程度上挑戰了最終結果。所以，是的，我認為正如我所說，我們已經遠遠超越了那個階段。我們已經恢復到公司應有的服務水平，現在我們正在全力以赴。

Okay. And then just following up on this. If the DSD folks are in the store several times a week, have you seen shelf space gains maybe here in October? I know it's outside your quarter. But have you seen shelf space gains in October versus what you were in, say, July?

好的。然後，我還要跟進一下這件事。如果 DSD 人員每週多次光顧商店，您是否在 10 月看到貨架空間增加？我知道它不在你的地盤上。但是，您是否注意到 10 月的貨架空間比 7 月有所增加？

Yes. I mean, that's what we're talking about. As we say -- as we see our retailers resetting their shelves, we're picking up some shelf space as well as we're increasing our displays. And again, those are the actions that we think will help us as we look to the balance of the year in North America.

是的。我的意思是，這就是我們正在討論的。正如我們所說——隨著零售商重新調整貨架，我們也正在增加貨架空間，同時也增加我們的展示。再次強調，我們認為這些措施將有助於我們展望今年北美地區的剩餘時間。

That should turn into share gains.

這應該會轉化為股價上漲。

Okay. Last question just on the earnings guidance. So double digits didn't change, but looks like your revenue comments is a little weaker. So then can you put some quantifications on these other things? I always kind of hate modeling at midnight on this company. So foreign exchange, interest expense, is the basic message here revenue is a little bit softer than you thought? Things are still pretty good, but basically everything's a little bit softer? Or are these other items, FX and interest expense, enough to offset any of this revenue change within the guidance?

好的。最後一個問題，關於獲利預期。所以兩位數的成長沒有改變，但看起來你的收入預期有所下降。那麼，您能否對其他這些方面進行一些量化分析呢？我一直很討厭在這家公司半夜當模特兒。所以，外匯和利息支出，這裡的基本資訊是：收入比你想像的要低一些？情況依然不錯，但基本上一切都變得柔和了一些？或者，外匯和利息支出等其他項目是否足以抵消預期範圍內的任何收入變化？

David, all I would say is that the real driver of the revenue -- the change in revenue outlook is the year-to-date impact of malware. So as we put all that together, it resulted in about $100 million of lost revenue for the year that we're not going to get back, and that's the pressure that causes us to adjust the top line outlook. Everything else is consistent with what we've said and I would say consistent with the trends that we've delivered year-to-date.

David，我只想說，真正推動收入成長的因素——收入前景的變化——是惡意軟體今年迄今為止的影響。因此，綜合所有因素來看，我們今年損失了約 1 億美元的收入，而這筆損失無法挽回，這就是迫使我們調整營收預期的壓力。其他一切都與我們所說的一致，而且我認為也與我們今年迄今為止所取得的趨勢一致。

And your next question comes from David Palmer with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的戴維‧帕爾默。

Best of luck, Irene. A question on Europe. You mentioned some promotional pushes in France and Russia, and those seem to be paying off or at least those targeted ones. And you mentioned the environment generally feeling better. Could you do your best to break down what is working better for you there? And perhaps tease out what is consumer versus the competition in your pipeline because, obviously, you're seeing some spending work better for you than it has in years past. It's been a difficult market. And then what factors, out of all these, make this feel sustainable if you think this turn indeed feels that way?

祝你好運，艾琳。一個關於歐洲的問題。你提到在法國和俄羅斯進行了一些宣傳推廣活動，這些活動似乎取得了成效，或至少那些有針對性的推廣活動取得了成效。你也提到環境整體感覺好多了。您能否盡力分析哪些方面對您來說更有效？或許你應該仔細分析你的銷售管道中哪些是消費者支出，哪些是競爭對手支出，因為很明顯，你會發現有些支出比往年效果更好。市場行情一直很艱難。那麼，在所有這些因素中，哪些因素使這種轉變感覺可持續呢？如果你認為這種轉變確實具有永續性的話。

Yes. I would say, David, it's -- we certainly did have a couple of tailwinds that made the quarter exceptionally strong in terms of a hot summer a year ago, and we did see a situation with the competitor in -- early in the quarter, a recall of a competitor product that was helpful. But fundamentals are good, and we're seeing very strong category growth. We're seeing strong share, very strong vol/mix, and we believe a lot of that is driven by programming. I alluded to the Premier League tie-in that we have in the U.K. has been a sizable factor in driving our shares there. We've been very pleased with our strength in Germany. We've had a very strong performance there. Our chocobakery business is doing very well as we have repatriated the Burton's license in the U.K. and across Europe. So there's a lot of actions that we are taking that are driving our strong performance that we would expect will continue.

是的。大衛，我想說，我們確實有一些順風因素，使得本季業績異常強勁，例如去年夏天天氣炎熱，而且在本季度初，我們還看到競爭對手召回了一款產品，這對我們很有幫助。但基本面良好，我們看到該品類成長非常強勁。我們看到市場份額強勁，銷售/組合也非常出色，我們認為這很大程度上是由節目編排推動的。我曾提到，我們在英國與英超聯賽的合作關係是推動我們在英國股價上漲的一個重要因素。我們對我們在德國的實力非常滿意。我們在那裡的表現非常出色。由於我們已重新獲得了 Burton's 在英國和整個歐洲的特許經營權，我們的巧克力烘焙業務發展得非常好。因此，我們正在採取許多措施來推動我們取得強勁的業績，我們預計這些措施將持續下去。

And your next question comes from the line of Chris Growe with Stifel.

你的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Chris Growe。

Best wishes, Irene, in your retirement. I want to start -- I just have 2 questions. First would be you quantified the effects from the malware incident on revenue, and I'm just curious how that kind of flows through the P&L. So what effect does that have on gross margin or operating margin? Could you give a little more color around that if you haven't done already? I may have missed that.

祝艾琳退休生活一切順利。我想先開始——我只有兩個問題。首先，您量化了惡意軟體事件對收入的影響，我很好奇這種影響是如何體現在損益表中的。那麼，這會對毛利率或營業利潤率產生什麼影響呢？如果你還沒做的話，能不能再補充一些細節？我可能錯過了。

We didn't. It's had a minor impact on gross margins as we would have lost some volume leverage related to that. But you can assume it came out at roughly average gross margin rates and then maybe a little bit of volume leverage leakage. We also, as we've talked about and you'll see in the filings, have adjusted out the direct costs that relate to the incident, which year-to-date for the 2 quarters is now in the range of $50 million. But those are related to the incident in terms of improving our infrastructure and restoring and in some cases, manufacturing, distribution and logistics related to that.

我們沒有。由於銷售成長帶來的部分槓桿作用減弱，這對毛利率的影響不大。但你可以假設它的毛利率大致處於平均水平，然後可能存在一些銷售槓桿效應造成的損失。正如我們之前討論過的，你們也會在文件中看到，我們已經調整了與該事件相關的直接成本，今年迄今為止，這兩個季度的直接成本約為 5000 萬美元。但這些都與該事件有關，涉及改善我們的基礎設施和恢復工作，在某些情況下，還涉及相關的製造、分銷和物流。

Okay. And just a follow-up question. As you think about the operating margin improvement that's occurring currently and you expect for next year, SG&A has been lower than I expected. And you've talked about overhead control, I think, across most of the divisions today, if not, all. So I'm just trying to understand if there are other incremental restructuring activities that are taking place to achieve this operating margin expansion you expect both this year and next. Or is it just part of the natural kind of the benefit of previous activities that you've undertaken?

好的。還有一個後續問題。考慮到目前營業利潤率的改善以及對明年的預期，銷售、一般及行政費用低於我的預期。我認為，今天大多數部門，甚至所有部門，都談到了管理費用控制。因此，我只是想了解為了實現您預期的今年和明年的營業利潤率成長，是否還有其他漸進式的重組活動正在進行中。或者這只是你之前所從事的活動所帶來的自然益處的一部分？

Well, we're still, Chris, in the middle of the restructuring program, and that will continue through '18. We've still got additional programs that we're funding as we speak and then are still executing to deliver. So it's still continuation of the same key programs with ZBB and shared services and all of those activities. So yes, we've still got more work to do there. We've still got funding to do that.

克里斯，我們目前仍處於重組計劃的中間階段，該計劃將持續到 2018 年。我們目前仍在資助其他項目，並仍在執行這些項目以取得成果。所以，零基預算、共享服務以及所有這些活動仍然是相同關鍵項目的延續。是的，我們在那方面還有更多的工作要做。我們還有資金來做這件事。

And your next question comes from the line of Rob Moskow with Crédit Suisse.

你的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的羅布莫斯科。

Best wishes to you, Irene. I wanted to ask about China only growing low single digit. You did execute a relaunch of the product -- of the Oreo product there. I was hoping for something a little better considering a lot of other consumer staples companies had been reporting stronger growth. Is there an obstacle to getting back to high single-digit or double-digit growth in China?

祝你一切順利，艾琳。我想問為什麼中國目前的成長率只有個位數。你們確實重新推出了奧利奧產品。考慮到許多其他消費必需品公司都報告了更強勁的成長，我原本希望情況能更好一些。中國經濟重回高個位數或兩位數成長的軌道是否有障礙？

First of all, the -- it's early days on our biscuit relaunch. So we're encouraged by the early signs, and we are looking forward to continued performance there. Our chocolate was down a little bit year-over-year because we would have had the benefit of the pipeline a year ago. So in aggregate, that was a bit of a headwind for us. Our gum continues to gain share. We're feeling very good about the performance there. So I think net-net, China continues to be a strong market -- will be a strong market for us as we look ahead. And we are pleased to see the early signs of -- that it's returning to growth. But again, there were a couple of variables in the quarter that dampened that overall performance.

首先，我們的餅乾重新上市還處於早期階段。因此，我們對目前的跡象感到鼓舞，並期待繼續取得好成績。我們的巧克力產量同比略有下降，因為一年前我們本可以受益於管道運輸。所以總的來說，這對我們來說有點不利。我們的口香糖市佔率持續成長。我們對那裡的表現非常滿意。所以總的來說，我認為中國仍然是一個強大的市場——展望未來，它對我們來說仍將是一個強勁的市場。我們很高興看到經濟恢復成長的早期跡象。但同樣，本季也存在一些變數影響了整體業績。

Okay. And a quick follow-up for Brian. Brian, your tax rate guidance is pretty wide. The implications for fourth quarter are very wide. Do you think you can get us a little closer to what to expect in fourth quarter and then maybe interest expense as well?

好的。還有一個問題想問布萊恩。布萊恩，你的稅率指導範圍太廣了。對第四季的影響非常廣泛。您能否更準確地預測一下第四季的預期情況，以及利息支出狀況？

Yes. I mean, there's always puts and takes, Rob. I mean, there's always discrete items that are playing out, and you can see what our estimated tax rate for the total year is. It's in the range of 23%, 24%. So I -- that's probably the best I could do given all the discrete items and the volatility around that. On interest, I think as we said coming into the year, we had a little bit of conservatism in that. I think, as you can see from the results, we're tracking a little bit below the guidance we gave you, which was $500 million. There are some other income items that were favorable and have impacted that. But the $500 million, I would still say there's some conservatism in that number as you play through the fourth quarter.

是的。我的意思是，凡事都有得有失，羅布。我的意思是，總是會有一些具體的事情發生，你可以看到我們預計全年的稅率是多少。範圍在 23% 到 24% 之間。所以——考慮到所有離散項目及其波動性，這可能是我能做到的最佳結果了。關於利率，我認為正如我們在年初所說的那樣，我們在這方面採取了一些保守的做法。我認為，正如你從結果中看到的，我們的業績略低於我們之前給出的預期，即 5 億美元。還有一些其他有利的收入項目也對此產生了影響。但是，考慮到比賽進入第四節，我認為 5 億美元的數字仍然有些保守。

And your final question comes from Jason English with Goldman Sachs.

最後一個問題來自高盛的傑森·英格利希。

First, congratulations, Irene. The value you've created for shareholders since you took over at Kraft has truly been impressive, so congrats for that. Two questions if I may, first on top line and then one on margins. First on top line, excluding some of the malware stuff, I think you implied like -- if we look at the implication, the front half of the year was growing 30, 40 basis points, and underlying, you've accelerated to something closer to 230 basis points in the third quarter, which is very encouraging. But if I look at your market growth and your market share charts, it suggests the markets certainly ticked up but your shares ticked the wrong way. So it's hard to foot what we're seeing were reported results in terms of the acceleration with what you guys are showing on the slide, so I was hoping you could help me bridge that gap.

首先，恭喜你，艾琳。自從您接手卡夫以來，您為股東創造的價值確實令人印象深刻，對此我表示祝賀。如果可以的話，我想問兩個問題，第一個是關於營收，第二個是關於利潤率。首先，就營收而言，撇開一些惡意軟體的影響不談，我認為你的意思是——如果我們看一下這個影響，今年上半年增長了 30 到 40 個基點，而第三季度實際增速已經接近 230 個基點，這非常令人鼓舞。但如果我看一下你們的市場成長和市佔率圖表，就會發現市場確實上漲了，但你們的股價卻朝著錯誤的方向發展了。所以，我們很難將我們看到的報道結果（就加速而言）與你們在幻燈片上展示的內容進行比較，所以我希望你們能幫我彌補這個差距。

Yes. So we said the category is growing in the range of 1.8% and reported year-to-date revenue growth is in the range of 80 -- 0.8%. That's snacking. So that's not going to tie it in total, but that's just snacking and the category snacking as well. So if you look at that, there's about 100 basis points difference. The largest piece is going to be malware, and as I said, that's 60 basis points year-to-date. And then you would have basically 40 basis points tied to year-over-year trade stock changes, and that's a combination of India GST, Middle East destocking that we talked about and then a bit in North America where we built some trade stocks last year and have returned to more normalized levels this year. So that explains the difference.

是的。因此，我們表示該類別的成長速度在 1.8% 左右，而年初至今的營收成長速度則在 0.8% 到 80% 之間。那是吃零食。所以這不會使總數持平，但這只是零食以及零食這個類別。所以你看，兩者之間大約有 100 個基點的差異。最大的部分將是惡意軟體，正如我所說，今年迄今為止，這部分佔了 60 個基點。這樣一來，基本上就有 40 個基點與同比貿易庫存變化掛鉤，這包括印度的商品及服務稅 (GST)、我們之前討論過的中東去庫存，以及北美的一些情況——去年我們建立了一些貿易庫存，而今年已經恢復到更正常的水平。這就解釋了其中的差異。

It doesn't really explain acceleration now. So your categories ticked up. If you just run the simple average, they ticked up from around 1.5 in the front half to 2.5 in the third quarter, simple average to get to the 1.8%. You accelerated, by far, greater margin with market share rolling the wrong way. So that's what I'm trying to foot because if I look at category growth and market share, I would say this quarter shouldn't have looked any different than the front half of the year, but clearly it did, which is encouraging to see. I'm just trying to really understand the underlying component, so we can gauge durability of that turn.

它現在並不能真正解釋加速度。你的各項指標都上升了。如果只計算簡單平均值，那麼從上半年的 1.5 左右上升到第三季的 2.5，簡單平均值達到 1.8%。儘管市場份額朝著錯誤的方向發展，但你仍然獲得了更大的利潤率。所以這就是我試圖解決的問題，因為如果我看一下品類成長和市場份額，我會說這個季度的情況應該和上半年沒什麼不同，但顯然情況並非如此，這令人鼓舞。我只是想真正了解其基本組成部分，以便我們能夠評估這一回合的持久性。

Yes. I would just say, Jason, that we have seen categories pick up. I would agree with that. I think we've seen our business improve a bit better. A lot of that is a bit confusing because of the malware timing of first half versus second half. I think we've seen stabilization in North America. That's improved. And our shares have not been dramatically different. If you look at the total year, we did in U.S. Biscuits, mostly because of malware, turn to a losing share position, which impacts the metric that we're sharing with you, which is the holding and gaining share. So I think it's reconcilable. We're improving a bit faster than the market in the second half of the year. Some of that's North America has gotten a bit better, and I think malware confuses that a little bit.

是的。傑森，我只想說，我們已經看到一些類別有所回升。我同意。我認為我們的業務狀況已經有所改善。由於惡意軟體在上半年和下半年的傳播時間存在差異，許多事情都讓人感到困惑。我認為北美局勢已經趨於穩定。情況有所改善。我們的股份也沒有顯著變化。如果縱觀全年，我們在美國餅乾行業的表現，主要是由於惡意軟體，導致市場份額下降，這影響了我們與您分享的指標，即持股比例和增持比例。所以我認為這是可以調和的。今年下半年，我們的改善速度比市場整體水準略快。北美的一些情況有所好轉，但我認為惡意軟體讓情況變得有些複雜。

And we have reached our allotted time for the question-and-answer potion. That does conclude the Mondelez International Third Quarter 2017 Earnings Call. You may now disconnect your lines.

問答環節的時間已經到了。至此，億滋國際2017年第三季財報電話會議結束。現在您可以斷開線路了。