Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kath, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the MediaAlpha, Inc., third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。我叫凱絲，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 MediaAlpha, Inc. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Liloia. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給 Alex Liloia。請繼續。

Thanks, Kath. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. (technical difficulty) CEO, Steve Yi; and CFO, Pat Thompson.

謝謝，凱絲。下午好，感謝您加入我們。（技術難度）CEO，Steve Yi；和首席財務官帕特·湯普森。

On today's call, we'll make forward-looking statements relating to our business and outlook for future financial results, including our financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將做出與我們的業務和未來財務表現展望相關的前瞻性聲明，包括 2024 年第四季的財務指引。這些前瞻性陳述存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果有重大差異。

Please refer to our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, for a fuller explanation of those risks and uncertainties, and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. All the forward-looking statements we make on this call reflect our assumptions and beliefs as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update such statements, except as required by law.

請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件，包括我們的 10-K 表年度報告和 10-Q 表季度報告，以獲取對這些風險和不確定性以及適用於前瞻性陳述的限制的更全面解釋。我們在本次電話會議中所做的所有前瞻性陳述均反映了我們截至目前的假設和信念，除法律要求外，我們不承擔任何更新此類陳述的義務。

Today's discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for GAAP results. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our press release and shareholder letter issued today, which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天的討論將包括非公認會計原則財務指標，這些指標不能取代公認會計原則結果。這些非公認會計原則財務指標與相應公認會計原則指標的調節可以在我們今天發布的新聞稿和股東信中找到，這些內容可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Steve.

我現在將把電話轉給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Alex. Hi, everyone. Thank you joining us.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。大家好。感謝您加入我們。

Our performance in the third quarter set new high-water mark across all of our key metrics. Our transaction value and adjusted EBITDA both reached record levels and exceeded the high end of our guidance. Before turning the call over to our CFO, Pat Thompson, I'd like to remind you of a few highlights of our business model and review some key drivers of our third-quarter results.

我們第三季的業績在所有關鍵指標上都創下了新的高水位。我們的交易價值和調整後的 EBITDA 都達到創紀錄水平，並超過了我們指導的上限。在將電話轉交給我們的財務長帕特湯普森之前，我想提醒您我們業務模式的一些亮點，並回顧我們第三季業績的一些關鍵驅動因素。

We operate the largest insurance customer acquisition media marketplace with strong long-term partnerships not easily replicable by competitors. Our media marketplace enables leading insurance carriers to reach millions of high-intent insurance shoppers through our partnerships with hundreds of insurance websites and apps.

我們經營最大的保險客戶獲取媒體市場，擁有競爭對手無法輕易複製的強大的長期合作關係。我們的媒體市場使領先的保險公司能夠透過我們與數百個保險網站和應用程式的合作關係接觸到數百萬高意願的保險購物者。

The reach and transparency of our marketplace is unmatched, allowing carriers to scale their direct-to-consumer marketing investments rapidly and efficiently. This marketplace model is a key differentiator and competitive advantage that has established us as a growth partner of choice among carriers and brokers and underpins our ongoing success.

我們市場的覆蓋範圍和透明度是無與倫比的，使營運商能夠快速有效地擴大其直接面向消費者的行銷投資。這種市場模式是一個關鍵的差異化因素和競爭優勢，使我們成為營運商和經紀人中首選的成長合作夥伴，並支撐我們不斷取得成功。

For the third quarter, our results were primarily driven by momentum in our property and casualty vertical as auto insurance underwriting profitability continued to improve. On the supply side, a highlight in the quarter was executing a multiyear extension with Insurify, one of our largest and longest-standing partners. We believe this agreement reflects our market leadership position, and we continue to evaluate strategic opportunities to further expand and deepen our supply partnerships.

第三季度，我們的業績主要受到財產和傷亡垂直領域的成長勢頭推動，因為汽車保險承保獲利能力持續改善。在供應方面，本季的一大亮點是與我們最大、歷史最悠久的合作夥伴之一 Insurify 執行多年延期。我們相信這項協議反映了我們的市場領導地位，我們將繼續評估策略機會，以進一步擴大和深化我們的供應合作夥伴關係。

On the demand side, we see plenty of headroom for further market share and revenue growth as additional auto insurance carriers reach target profitability, return to growth mode, and increase their investments in online direct customer acquisition.

在需求方面，隨著更多汽車保險公司達到目標盈利能力、回歸增長模式並增加在線直接客戶獲取的投資，我們認為進一步市場份額和收入增長的空間很大。

In health insurance, we're entering our seasonally strongest quarter, driven by annual Medicare and ACA enrollment periods. Notwithstanding some of the transitory headwinds in Medicare, we believe the investments we've made in our partner network position us well over the long term.

在健康保險領域，受年度 Medicare 和 ACA 投保期的推動，我們正在進入季節性最強的季度。儘管醫療保險領域存在一些暫時的阻力，但我們相信，從長遠來看，我們對合作夥伴網路的投資使我們處於有利地位。

Finally, I'd like to provide some context on the upcoming TCPA one-to-one consent rules affecting our broader industry, that will take effect in January of 2025. These rules require sellers to obtain specific consent from consumers before contacting them using an automated dialing system or prerecorded or artificial voice system.

最後，我想提供一些關於即將於 2025 年 1 月生效的影響我們更廣泛行業的 TCPA 一對一同意規則的背景資訊。這些規則要求賣家在使用自動撥號系統或預先錄製或人工語音系統聯繫消費者之前，必須獲得消費者的明確同意。

While this change is expected to meaningfully limit the volume of shared leads sold, we see this as an extremely positive development for consumers and our industry as a whole. It's important to keep in mind that these shared leads make up only 5% to 6% of our total transaction value. And because our marketplace is heavily focused on clicks rather than leads, we do not expect these changes to have a significant impact on our business.

雖然這項變更預計將顯著限制共享銷售線索的銷售量，但我們認為這對消費者和整個產業來說是一個極其積極的發展。重要的是要記住，這些共享銷售線索僅占我們總交易價值的 5% 到 6%。由於我們的市場主要關注點擊量而不是潛在客戶，因此我們預計這些變化不會對我們的業務產生重大影響。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Pat for a more detailed review of our third-quarter performance and fourth-quarter guidance.

這樣，我將把電話轉給帕特，以更詳細地審查我們的第三季業績和第四季指引。

Thanks, Steve. Our third-quarter results exceeded the high end of our guidance ranges across all metrics, including record transaction value and adjusted EBITDA of $451.8 million and $26.3 million, respectively.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我們第三季的業績在所有指標上都超出了指導範圍的上限，包括創紀錄的交易價值和調整後的 EBITDA 分別為 4.518 億美元和 2,630 萬美元。

P&C transaction value was up 52% sequentially, above our expectations of 40% to 45%, driven by increased year-over-year pricing and higher volumes as participation in our marketplaces continued to scale. Transaction value in our health vertical was up 9% year over year, in line with our expectations.

財產險交易額較上季成長 52%，高於我們 40% 至 45% 的預期，這得益於同比價格上漲以及市場參與度持續擴大帶來的交易量增加。我們的健康垂直領域的交易價值年增 9%，符合我們的預期。

As expected, our take rates were somewhat lower as our business continued to mix to P&C, which is more private exchange-based and some of our largest supply partners benefited from volume-based pricing. Overhead was in line with expectations. The net impact of all this was that adjusted EBITDA increased by $22.7 million, representing over 600% growth year over year.

正如預期的那樣，由於我們的業務繼續與 P&C 混合，P&C 更加以私人交易所為基礎，而且我們的一些最大的供應合作夥伴受益於基於數量的定價，因此我們的接受率有所下降。開銷符合預期。所有這一切的淨影響是調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 2,270 萬美元，年增超過 600%。

Looking forward to Q4, we expect P&C transaction value levels to be flat to slightly up as compared to Q3, reflecting stronger performance than normal seasonal trends. In health, where Q4 is our seasonally strongest quarter due to the timing of both the Medicare and ACA enrollment periods, we expect transaction value growth to be down mid-single digits year over year due to the well-documented headwinds in the Medicare payer space.

展望第四季度，我們預期財產險交易價值水準將與第三季持平或略有上升，反映出比正常季節性趨勢更強勁的表現。在健康領域，由於 Medicare 和 ACA 註冊期的時間安排，第四季度是我們季節性最強的季度，由於 Medicare 付款人領域有充分記錄的不利因素，我們預計交易價值增長將同比下降中個位數。

Moving to our consolidated financial guidance, we expect Q4 transaction value to be between $470 million and $495 million, a year-over-year increase of 192% at the midpoint. We expect revenue to be between $275 million and $295 million, a year-over-year increase of 143% at the midpoint.

轉向我們的綜合財務指引，我們預計第四季度交易額將在 4.7 億美元至 4.95 億美元之間，中位數年增 192%。我們預計營收將在 2.75 億美元至 2.95 億美元之間，中點年增 143%。

We expect adjusted EBITDA to be between $29.5 million and $32.5 million, a year-over-year increase of 144% at the midpoint. We expect overhead to increase sequentially by approximately $500,000 to $1 million as we continue to selectively add headcount to support and drive growth. Lastly, we expect our Q4 adjusted EBITDA add-back for legal costs, including costs associated with the FTC inquiry, to be similar to Q3.

我們預計調整後 EBITDA 將在 2,950 萬美元至 3,250 萬美元之間，中點年增 144%。隨著我們繼續有選擇地增加員工人數以支持和推動成長，我們預計管理費用將連續增加約 50 萬至 100 萬美元。最後，我們預計第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 法律費用（包括與 FTC 調查相關的費用）將與第三季相似。

Turning to the balance sheet, we've made solid progress in deleveraging, ending the quarter with a net-debt-to-adjusted-EBITDA ratio of less than 2 times. To capitalize on market opportunities and grow our market share, we have been strategically investing in our business and working capital.

就資產負債表而言，我們在去槓桿化方面取得了紮實進展，本季末淨負債與調整後 EBITDA 的比率不到 2 倍。為了利用市場機會並擴大我們的市場份額，我們一直對我們的業務和營運資本進行策略性投資。

We continue to expect high conversion rates of adjusted EBITDA into cash over time due to the operating efficiencies in our business, including minimal capital expenditures and low working capital needs. With that, operator, we are ready for the first question.

由於我們業務的營運效率，包括最小的資本支出和較低的營運資金需求，我們仍然預計隨著時間的推移，調整後的 EBITDA 轉化為現金的比率會很高。至此，操作員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Graham, Canaccord Genuity.

（操作員說明）Michael Graham，Canaccord Genuity。

Thank you, and congrats on the great momentum. I wanted to ask a couple of questions. The first was just on the middle innings comment that you gave in the shareholder letter, I just wonder if you could kind of put a little more context around that.

謝謝，並祝賀你們的巨大勢頭。我想問幾個問題。第一個是關於您在股東信中給出的中局評論，我只是想知道您是否可以就此提供更多背景資訊。

Is it -- does that mean middle innings like some of the carriers have not come back yet? Or is it more like broadly spread to a lot of carriers, and they're just still kind of getting ramped up? And then I just wanted to ask if you can make a comment on the hurricanes in the Southeast and whether you're seeing any impact from those.

是不是——這是否意味著像某些運營商那樣的中局還沒有回來？或者它更像是廣泛傳播到許多運營商，而他們只是仍在增加？然後我只是想問你是否可以對東南部的颶風發表評論以及你是否看到了這些颶風的任何影響。

Hey, Michael, yeah. Thanks for that question. For the middle innings comment, the context for that was really, I think, twofold. And they're similar to what we talked about last time, which is, one is we've had great recovery in the market in 2024. But it continues to be primarily driven by a small number of very large carriers who are very sophisticated when it comes to direct-to-consumer advertising.

嘿，邁克爾，是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。對於中局評論，我認為，其背景確實是雙重的。跟我們上次講的很相似，就是2024年我們市場有很大的復甦。但它仍然主要由少數大型業者推動，這些業者在直接面向消費者的廣告方面非常成熟。

And so when we say from that perspective that the recovery, we feel like, is still in the middle innings, it's about the broader participation of other top carriers. Certainly, there's been progress within the industry since -- from a quarter ago. And so there has been incremental, I guess, increases in budget from a larger number of carriers.

因此，當我們從這個角度說復甦仍處於中期時，這與其他頂級航空公司的更廣泛參與有關。當然，自一個季度前以來，該行業已經取得了進展。因此，我猜想，越來越多的營運商會增加預算。

But I would say that when you look at the list of the top 10 to 15 carriers, still, several large carriers jump out, as carriers are either still on the sidelines or otherwise somewhere below where we would expect them to be based on their market share and historical spend levels.

但我想說的是，當你查看排名前 10 至 15 名的運營商名單時，仍然有幾家大型運營商脫穎而出，因為運營商要么仍處於觀望狀態，要么低於我們根據其市場預期的水平份額和歷史支出水準。

In addition to that, I think a smaller factor is really the geography that we mentioned. We still have states like California, New York, New Jersey, very large states, which, in aggregate, make up about 20% of the US market, where there's been incremental progress in terms of carriers getting rate increases approved.

除此之外，我認為一個較小的因素實際上是我們提到的地理位置。我們仍然有加州、紐約州、新澤西州等非常大的州，這些州總共占美國市場的 20% 左右，這些州在營運商獲得加價批准方面取得了漸進的進展。

But those three states, again, in particular, really aren't where they normally would be in terms of overall market share, media pricing, and overall volume. And so I think those two perspectives are really what color the middle innings comment from our perspective.

但這三個州在整體市場份額、媒體定價和總量方面確實與正常情況不符。所以我認為這兩種觀點確實是從我們的角度來看中局評論的顏色。

With regard to the hurricanes, obviously, it's a big event for the insurance industry. It's a notable one. But for us, it's really -- these types of things tend to be almost nonevents from our marketplace perspective. It's for -- the primary reason being that we're very heavily skewed to auto insurance.

顯然，颶風對保險業來說是一件大事。這是一件值得注意的事。但對我們來說，從我們市場的角度來看，這些類型的事情往往幾乎不是什麼大事。主要原因是我們非常偏向汽車保險。

And so what tends to happen during these periods is that advertisers will turn off their campaigns or pause their campaigns for a few days leading up to the event and then almost immediately turn back on. So even though, obviously, it was a human tragedy, it was a notable insurance event for our P&C auto insurance media marketplace. It was a relatively nonevent for us.

因此，在這些時期往往會發生的情況是，廣告商會在活動開始前關閉他們的廣告活動或暫停他們的廣告活動幾天，然後幾乎立即重新啟動。因此，儘管這顯然是一場人類悲劇，但對於我們的財產與意外險汽車保險媒體市場來說，這是一個值得注意的保險事件。這對我們來說相對來說是一件無關緊要的事。

Okay. Thank you, Steve.

好的。謝謝你，史蒂夫。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，麥可。

Danny Pfeiffer, JPMorgan.

丹尼菲佛，摩根大通。

Hey, thanks for the question. For the first, can you maybe parse out some of the different scenarios on how the health business would be impacted as it relates to ACA in your under-65 business if we have a Republican versus a Democratic administration? And I have a follow-up. Thanks.

嘿，謝謝你的提問。首先，您能否分析一下，如果我們的政府是共和黨政府還是民主黨政府，那麼您的 65 歲以下企業中與平價醫療法案 (ACA) 相關的健康業務將受到怎樣的影響？我有一個後續行動。謝謝。

Yeah, sure. Again, Patrick might have -- Pat might have something to add to this. But I think, really, at a high level, we've grown our health insurance business pretty steadily, I believe, over the last 9 to 10 years. And so that's been through both Democratic and Republican administrations.

是的，當然。再說一次，帕特里克可能有——帕特可能有一些補充。但我認為，實際上，在過去的 9 到 10 年裡，我們的健康保險業務在高水準上已經相當穩定地成長。民主黨和共和黨政府都是如此。

And so regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, I think we remain confident in our ability to grow that business over the long term. I think, again, at a very high level, I think that our Medicare Advantage business is maybe at the margins would benefit from a Republican administration. It's a product that has broad bipartisan support.

因此，無論即將到來的選舉結果如何，我認為我們仍然對長期發展該業務的能力充滿信心。我再次認為，在很高的水平上，我認為我們的醫療保險優勢業務可能會從共和黨政府中受益。這是一個得到兩黨廣泛支持的產品。

But again, Republicans have generally -- though, the party has generally been more in favor of Medicare Advantage. But then the countervailing factor there is that for the under-65 business, again, we tend to have more activity there under Democratic administration because they put more emphasis on marketing and promoting under-65 plans or ACA plans.

但共和黨人總體上還是更支持醫療保險優勢。但與之相反的因素是，對於 65 歲以下的企業，我們在民主黨政府的領導下往往會開展更多的活動，因為他們更加重視行銷和推廣 65 歲以下的計劃或 ACA 計劃。

And so overall, I would say that that doesn't change the high-level assessment that, again, we'll grow through both Democratic and Republican administrations. And the marginal impacts that one or the other could have, I think, tend to wash each other out.

總的來說，我想說這不會改變高層的評估，即我們將在民主黨和共和黨政府的領導下成長。我認為，其中之一可能產生的邊際影響往往會相互抵消。

Got you. That's helpful. And then for my second question, in regards to carriers that were early in turning spend back on, can you give any color into whether their budgets continue to grow? Or have they started to level off and kind of back to more normalized rates of spend? Thanks.

明白你了。這很有幫助。對於我的第二個問題，對於那些很早就開始恢復支出的運營商，您能否對他們的預算是否繼續增長做出任何解釋？或者他們開始趨於平穩並恢復到更正常化的支出率？謝謝。

I think as you've seen from our results and our forecast, I mean, we still continue to see pretty strong momentum from those carriers. I think that pricing-wise, I think it's -- we can foresee some leveling off in terms of pricing, even as additional carriers come back into the fold and provide for a more competitive environment.

我認為正如您從我們的結果和預測中看到的那樣，我的意思是，我們仍然繼續看到這些運營商的強勁勢頭。我認為在定價方面，我們可以預見定價會趨於平穩，即使更多的運營商重新加入並提供更具競爭力的環境。

I'll point you, though, in terms of something that goes to the sustainability of the pricing and the media investments being made, to the investor presentation that Progressive made in August of this year, that really highlighted the fact that as a carrier who's been very disciplined about understanding the expected lifetime value of the policies that are selling, their target customer acquisition costs that they're incurring through paid media channels like ours remain at or below the threshold that they've set.

不過，我要向您指出，就定價和媒體投資的可持續性而言，Progressive 在今年 8 月所做的投資者介紹確實強調了這樣一個事實：作為一家運營商，在了解所銷售保單的預期終身價值方面非常自律，他們透過像我們這樣的付費媒體管道產生的目標客戶獲取成本仍然保持在或低於他們設定的閾值。

And so that certainly match what we're hearing from them directly and from other carriers who have started to invest heavily into our space, that the levels of investment that we're seeing as well as the media price levels are sustainable.

因此，這肯定與我們直接從他們和其他已經開始大力投資我們領域的運營商那裡聽到的消息相符，即我們看到的投資水平以及媒體價格水平是可持續的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ben Hendrix, RBC Capital Markets.

本‧亨德里克斯，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Great. Hey, thanks, guys. Just wanted to get some more color on the expectations for lower transaction value year over year in this coming AEP. I know there's been some pullback and some pressure in Medicare Advantage, but we're expecting an active season.

偉大的。嘿，謝謝，夥計們。只是想在即將到來的 AEP 中進一步了解交易價值同比下降的預期。我知道醫療保險優勢出現了一些回落和一些壓力，但我們預計會有一個活躍的季節。

I'm wondering if you're seeing just more spend go internal towards internal channels and carriers or if we're seeing just more shopping behavior rather than actual transaction. Just any color you can provide there would be great. Thank you.

我想知道您是否看到更多的支出流向內部管道和運營商，或者我們是否看到更多的購物行為而不是實際交易。只要你能提供任何顏色就會很棒。謝謝。

Yeah. And Ben, thanks for the question. This is Pat. I'll tackle this one. So I'd say for the health vertical, overall, we're guiding to transaction value being down mid-single digits year over year. And we said that we believe Medicare will be weaker -- and under-65 -- in the upcoming quarter.

是的。本，謝謝你的提問。這是帕特。我來解決這個問題。因此，我想說，對於健康垂直領域，總體而言，我們指導交易價值逐年下降中個位數。我們說過，我們相信醫療保險在下個季度將會變得更弱，尤其是 65 歲以下。

And I think the challenges that the Medicare payers are seeing have been kind of pretty well documented as they're seeing higher service utilization. They're seeing star ratings go down. And there -- I think different carriers are in different spots, but we've seen a number of carriers that have tightened their belts in terms of interest in spending heavily on marketing.

我認為醫療保險付款人所面臨的挑戰已經得到了很好的記錄，因為他們看到了更高的服務利用率。他們看到星級評分下降。我認為不同的運營商處於不同的位置，但我們已經看到許多運營商為了在營銷上投入巨資而勒緊褲腰帶。

I think the counter to that is there have been a number of plan design changes that have happened that have spurred increased consumer shopping. And I think that some of the payers are maybe tightening their belts. I think there could be some folks in the broker community that are maybe benefiting from the change. We're also only 15 days into AEP, so it's a little bit hard to say.

我認為與此相反的是，已經發生了許多計劃設計的變化，刺激了消費者購物的增加。我認為有些付款人可能正在勒緊褲帶。我認為經紀人社區中的一些人可能會從這項變化中受益。我們的 AEP 也只有 15 天，所以這有點很難說。

But long story short, I think pricing trends are weak, volume trends are pretty good, and the net of that, we think, is going to be down slightly. But over a three- to five-year time horizon, I think we're as bullish now as we've ever been about the opportunity for us in Medicare Advantage.

但長話短說，我認為價格趨勢疲軟，成交量趨勢相當不錯，我們認為，其淨值將略有下降。但在三到五年的時間範圍內，我認為我們現在和以往一樣看好醫療保險優勢中的機會。

Thank you for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

(Operator Instructions) Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's Q&A session and conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

（操作員說明）女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。