Mediaalpha Inc (MAX) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the MediaAlpha Inc third quarter 2025 earnings call. I am France, and I'll be the operator assisting you today. (Operator Instructions)

下午好，歡迎參加 MediaAlpha 公司 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 France，今天將由我來主持會議。 （操作說明）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alex Liloia, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話交給投資者關係部的亞歷克斯·利洛亞。請開始吧。

Thanks, France. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us. With me are Co-Founder and CEO, Steve Yi; and CFO, Pat Thompson.

謝謝，法國。下午好，感謝各位的到來。和我一起的還有共同創辦人兼執行長史蒂夫·易，以及財務長帕特·湯普森。

On today's call, we'll make forward-looking statements relating to our business and outlook for future financial results, including our financial guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, for a fuller explanation of those risks and uncertainties and the limits applicable to forward-looking statements. All the forward-looking statements we make on this call reflect our assumptions and beliefs as of today, and we disclaim any obligation to update such statements, except as required by law.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將就公司業務和未來財務業績展望做出前瞻性陳述，包括我們對2025年第四季的財務指引。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定性因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期有重大差異。請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的文件，包括我們的10-K表年度報告和10-Q表季度報告，以更詳細地了解這些風險和不確定性因素以及適用於前瞻性陳述的限制。我們在本次電話會議上所做的所有前瞻性陳述均反映了我們截至今日的假設和信念，除法律要求外，我們不承擔更新此類陳述的任何義務。

Today's discussion will include non-GAAP financial measures, which are not a substitute for GAAP results. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in our press release and shareholder letter issued today, which are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

今天的討論將涉及非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標，這些指標不能取代公認會計準則（GAAP）下的財務結果。這些非GAAP財務指標與相應的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們今天發布的新聞稿和致股東信，這兩份文件均可在我們網站的投資者關係欄中找到。

I'll now turn the call over to Steve.

現在我將把電話交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Alex. Hi, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to report that we delivered record third quarter results, driven by continued momentum in our P&C insurance vertical. Growth in the quarter was fueled by increased marketing investments from leading auto insurance carriers who continue to lean into customer acquisition in what remains a highly favorable operating environment. With underwriting margins at unusually high levels, carriers are in a strong position to pursue policy growth.

謝謝Alex。大家好，感謝各位的參與。我很高興地向大家匯報，我們第三季業績創歷史新高，這主要得益於財產險業務的持續成長動能。本季成長主要得益於領先的汽車保險公司加大行銷投入，他們在當前依然非常有利的經營環境下，持續致力於客戶拓展。由於承保利潤率處於異常高的水平，保險公司在追求保單成長方面擁有強大的優勢。

Importantly, peak underwriting profitability does not mean that carrier advertising spending has peaked. To the contrary, we're seeing an increasing number of carriers turn their focus in earnest to capturing market share, and our marketplace continues to be the most efficient and scaled platform for them to acquire new customers. These dynamics give us significant runway for continued growth in the quarters ahead.

重要的是，承保利潤達到高峰並不代表保險公司的廣告支出也達到高峰。恰恰相反，我們看到越來越多的保險公司正認真地將重心轉向搶佔市場份額，而我們的平台仍然是他們獲取新客戶最高效、規模最大的平台。這些動態為我們未來幾季的持續成長提供了巨大的空間。

In our health insurance vertical, our results were impacted by our recent reset in under-65, which was in line with expectations. Our partnerships with leading Medicare Advantage carriers continue to perform well, and we expect digital advertising to capture a larger share of health insurance distribution spend over time. As these secular tailwinds play out, we believe we're well positioned to restart growth from this new baseline.

在我們的健康保險業務領域，近期針對65歲以下族群的調整對業績產生了一定影響，但這符合預期。我們與領先的聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃（M​​edicare Advantage）運營商的合作持續取得良好成效，我們預計隨著時間的推移，數位廣告將在健康保險分銷支出中佔據更大的份額。隨著這些長期利好因素的逐步顯現，我們相信我們已做好充分準備，從新的基線重新開啟成長。

As we look ahead, we're encouraged by the strength of our P&C business, the long-term potential of our Medicare vertical and the expanding opportunities we see across digital insurance distribution.

展望未來，我們對財產險業務的強勁表現、醫療保險業務的長期潛力以及數位保險分銷領域不斷擴大的機會感到鼓舞。

In our P&C vertical, we believe we're in the early stages of a multiyear soft market, characterized by strong carrier profitability and robust market share competition, which we expect to sustain healthy marketing spend for years to come. The combination of strong industry fundamentals, deep partnerships and the efficiency of our platform gives us conviction in our ability to deliver sustainable growth. We'll continue to balance investment in innovation with disciplined capital deployment, ensuring that we build enduring value for our partners and shareholders.

在財產險領域，我們認為目前正處於多年疲軟市場的初期階段，其特點是保險公司盈利能力強勁，市場份額競爭激烈，我們預計這將為未來幾年保持健康的營銷支出水平。強勁的行業基本面、深厚的合作夥伴關係以及我們高效的平台，使我們對實現永續成長充滿信心。我們將繼續在創新投資和審慎的資本部署之間取得平衡，確保為我們的合作夥伴和股東創造持久價值。

In addition to favorable industry fundamentals, powerful technology shifts, particularly those related to AI, are likely to reshape how consumers discover, evaluate and purchase insurance. In the near to midterm, it's foreseeable that AI may disrupt traffic patterns and monetization models for some of our publishers while also creating entirely new supply side opportunities.

除了有利的產業基本面之外，強大的技術變革，尤其是人工智慧相關的技術變革，可能會重塑消費者發現、評估和購買保險的方式。在中短期內，人工智慧可能會顛覆部分出版商的流量模式和獲利模式，同時也創造全新的供應方機會。

Because our marketplace spans hundreds of publishers across multiple formats and media channels, we expect our ecosystem as a whole to adapt well to these changes, preserving a resilient and diversified supply base.

由於我們的市場涵蓋數百家出版商，涉及多種格式和媒體管道，我們期望整個生態系統能夠很好地適應這些變化，從而保持一個具有韌性和多元化的供應基礎。

With materially greater scale than our competitors and growing network effects, we expect to remain the partner of choice for both publishers and advertisers and to continue gaining share as AI adoption accelerates. We're also highly focused on leveraging AI to enhance the productivity of our organization and better serve our partners. We believe we're just scratching the surface here and look forward to keeping you updated in the coming quarters.

憑藉遠超競爭對手的規模和不斷增強的網路效應，我們期望繼續成為出版商和廣告商的首選合作夥伴，並隨著人工智慧應用的加速普及而持續擴大市場份額。我們也高度重視利用人工智慧提升公司效率，並更好地服務合作夥伴。我們相信目前的發展只是冰山一角，期待在未來幾季與您分享更多進展。

With that, I'll hand it over to Pat.

這樣，我就把它交給帕特了。

Thanks, Steve. I'll start by walking through the key drivers of our Q3 results.

謝謝，史蒂夫。我先來介紹一下我們第三季業績的關鍵驅動因素。

Transaction value was $589 million, up 30% year-over-year, driven by 41% year-over-year growth in our P&C vertical. In our health vertical, transaction value declined 40% year-over-year, consistent with our expectations.

交易金額達5.89億美元，年增30%，主要得益於財產險業務年增41%。健康險業務的交易額較去年同期下降40%，符合預期。

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $29.1 million, an increase of 11% year-over-year. Our efficient operating model and disciplined expense management allowed us to convert 64% of contribution to adjusted EBITDA, up from 63% in the prior year. Excluding under-65 Health, our core business performance was very strong with year-over-year transaction value and adjusted EBITDA growth of 38% and 31%, respectively.

本季調整後 EBITDA 為 2,910 萬美元，年增 11%。我們高效的營運模式和嚴格的費用管理使我們能夠將 64% 的利潤轉化為調整後 EBITDA，高於去年的 63%。剔除 65 歲以下人口健康業務後，我們的核心業務表現非常強勁，交易額和調整後 EBITDA 分別年增 38% 和 31%。

Our take rate, defined as contribution divided by transaction value, decreased year-over-year as expected for three main reasons. First, our under-65 subvertical, which was historically at high take rates, has declined. Second, our largest P&C carrier partners have continued to represent an outsized share of spend in our marketplace. These carriers were among the first to restore underwriting profitability, which has given them a head start, but we are confident that other carriers will enter the race in a more meaningful way.

我們的核保率（定義為貢獻額除以交易額）較去年同期下降，符合預期，主要有三個原因。首先，我們65歲以下細分市場（該細分市場歷來承保率較高）的承保率有所下降。其次，我們最大的財產險和意外險合作夥伴仍佔據市場支出的大部分份額。這些保險公司率先恢復了承保獲利能力，這使它們獲得了先發優勢，但我們相信其他保險公司也會以更有意義的方式加入競爭。

Lastly, our take rate was impacted by large-scale new supply partner wins. These factors together have increased the percentage of transaction value from private marketplace transactions, which carry lower take rates. Importantly, our open marketplace take rates have remained relatively stable. The pressure we're seeing is primarily a function of mix shift.

最後，我們大幅增加的新供應商合作夥伴也影響了我們的佣金率。這些因素共同導致私人市場交易額佔比上升，而私人市場交易的佣金率通常較低。值得注意的是，我們公開市場的佣金率一直保持相對穩定。我們目前面臨的壓力主要源自於交易結構的改變。

Looking ahead, we expect our Q4 take rate to be approximately 7%, with private marketplace transactions representing approximately 54% of total transaction value. As we plan for 2026, our current base case assumes we will start the year with a take rate roughly consistent with Q4 levels before the broadening of carrier demand has a meaningful impact on our take rate. Given the strong momentum we are seeing in carrier spend and our usual OpEx discipline, we believe we are well positioned to deliver adjusted EBITDA growth and maintain strong free cash flow generation next year.

展望未來，我們預期第四季交易率約為7%，其中私有市場交易額約佔總交易額的54%。在規劃2026年時，我們目前的基本假設是，在營運商需求擴大對交易率產生顯著影響之前，年初的交易率將與第四季水準大致持平。鑑於營運商支出強勁成長勢頭以及我們一貫的營運支出控制，我們相信我們有能力在明年實現調整後EBITDA成長並保持強勁的自由現金流。

Longer term, we expect an uplift in take rates as more of our carrier partners ramp up their marketing spend to compete for policy growth, resulting in an increasing percentage of spend being transacted on our open marketplace. We expect record fourth quarter transaction value as we benefit from continued strong demand from the largest carriers in our marketplace. Accordingly, we expect P&C transaction value to grow approximately 45% year-over-year.

從長遠來看，隨著更多保險公司合作夥伴加大行銷投入以爭奪保單業務成長，我們預計承保率將有所提升，從而導致越來越多的保費支出透過我們的開放市場平台完成交易。我們預計第四季交易額將創歷史新高，這得益於我們市場中最大保險公司持續強勁的需求。因此，我們預計財產險交易額將年增約45%。

In our Health vertical, which includes both Medicare and under-65 Health, we expect transaction value to decline approximately 45% year-over-year, driven primarily by under-65, which is stabilizing at a lower baseline. On a year-over-year basis, we expect fourth quarter transaction value and contribution from under-65 Health to decline by $34 million to $38 million or 61% to 68% and $8 million to $9 million or 80% to 90%, respectively.

在我們的健康產業部門（包括聯邦醫療保險和65歲以下人群健康保險），我們預計交易額將同比下降約45%，主要原因是65歲以下人群健康保險業務已穩定在較低的基數水平。年比來看，我們預期第四季65歲以下民眾健康保險業務的交易額和貢獻將分別下降3,400萬美元至3,800萬美元（降幅61%至68%）及800萬美元至900萬美元（降幅80%至90%）。

To provide additional insight into the new baseline for our Health vertical, similar to last quarter, we've included in this quarter's shareholder letter, both transaction value and contribution for our under-65 business. As a reminder, we expect 2025 under-65 transaction value of $95 million to $100 million and contribution of about $10 million to $11 million, with around $1 million to $2 million of that contribution coming in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, we expect that under-65 will generate annual contribution dollars in the mid-single-digit millions, reflecting the reset in both scale and profitability for this subvertical.

為了更深入了解我們健康產業的新基準，與上季類似，我們在本季的股東信中列出了65歲以下人群業務的交易額和貢獻額。再次提醒，我們預計2025年65歲以下人群業務的交易額將達到9500萬美元至1億美元，貢獻額約為1000萬美元至1100萬美元，其中約100萬美元至200萬美元的貢獻額將在第四季度實現。展望未來，我們預計65歲以下人群業務的年度貢獻將達到數百萬美元，這反映了該細分市場規模和獲利能力的重塑。

Moving to our consolidated financial guidance. We expect Q4 transaction value to be between $620 million and $645 million, representing a year-over-year increase of 27% at the midpoint. We expect revenue to be between $280 million and $300 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 4% at the midpoint. We expect revenue as a percentage of transaction value to decrease meaningfully year-over-year as private marketplace transactions, which are recognized on a net basis, are expected to represent around 54% of transaction value, up from 41% in Q4 of last year.

接下來是我們的綜合財務預期。我們預計第四季交易額將在6.2億美元至6.45億美元之間，以中間值計算，年增27%。我們預計營收將在2.8億美元至3億美元之間，以中間值計算，年減4%。我們預期營收佔交易額的百分比將比去年同期顯著下降，原因是按淨額確認的私有市場交易預計將佔交易額的54%左右，高於去年第四季的41%。

Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $27.5 million and $29.5 million, representing a year-over-year decrease of 22% at the midpoint, including $8 million to $9 million of impact from an expected year-over-year decline in under-65 contribution. Excluding under-65 Health, we expect adjusted EBITDA to be roughly flat year-over-year. Finally, we expect overhead to be roughly flat to Q3 levels.

調整後 EBITDA 預計在 2,750 萬美元至 2,950 萬美元之間，取中間值後年減 22%，其中包括 65 歲以下族群業務貢獻預計將年減 800 萬美元至 900 萬美元的影響。若剔除 65 歲以下族群健康業務，我們預期調整後 EBITDA 將與去年同期基本持平。最後，我們預計營運成本將與第三季水準基本持平。

Turning to the balance sheet. We generated $23.6 million of free cash flow in the third quarter. We ended the quarter with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio below 1 time and cash of $39 million-plus restricted cash of $33.5 million. Earlier this month, the restricted cash was used to make the initial FTC settlement payment and the remaining $11.5 million is payable in Q1 of 2026. Excluding these settlement payments, we expect to convert a substantial portion of adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow, providing us with continued financial flexibility to support our strategic priorities.

接下來看一下資產負債表。第三季我們產生了2,360萬美元的自由現金流。季末，我們的淨債務與調整後EBITDA比率低於1倍，現金餘額為3,900萬美元，另有3,350萬美元的受限現金。本月初，我們已使用受限現金支付了與聯邦貿易委員會（FTC）的首筆和解款項，剩餘的1,150萬美元將於2026年第一季支付。在扣除這些和解款項後，我們預計將大部分調整後EBITDA轉化為自由現金流，從而為我們提供持續的財務靈活性，以支持我們的策略重點。

Given our confidence in our strategy and long-term growth opportunities, we think our stock is an attractive investment and share buybacks are an accretive use of excess cash, particularly at current levels. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 5% of our outstanding shares at a discount to market for $32.9 million. In addition, earlier today, we announced a new share repurchase authorization of up to $50 million, consistent with our disciplined approach to capital allocation and focus on maximizing shareholder value.

鑑於我們對自身策略和長期成長機會的信心，我們認為我們的股票是一項極具吸引力的投資，而股票回購是有效利用盈餘現金的增值方式，尤其是在當前價位。本季度，我們以低於市價的價格回購了約5%的流通股，總額達3,290萬美元。此外，今天早些時候，我們宣布了一項新的股票回購授權，金額最高可達5000萬美元，這與我們嚴謹的資本配置策略以及專注於最大化股東價值的宗旨相符。

With that, operator, we are ready to take the first question.

操作員，我們準備好回答第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) [Melia Wicks, Canaccord].

（操作說明）[Melia Wicks，Canaccord]。

This is Maria Ripps. It seems like a lot of investors are focused on carrier profitability sort of peak margins currently. And as you know, one of the largest carriers recently recorded a sizable credit expense to reflect excess profits. Can you maybe talk about sort of your view on how sustainable current profitability levels are and what that might mean for customer acquisition spend overall?

我是瑪麗亞·里普斯。目前看來，許多投資人都關注航空公司的獲利能力，尤其是利潤率的峰值。如您所知，一家大型航空公司最近提列了一筆數額可觀的信貸支出，以反映其超額利潤。您能否談談您對目前獲利水準可持續性的看法，以及這可能對整體客戶獲取成本產生的影響？

Maria, I appreciate that question. Yes, as you're alluding to, I mean, we've been getting that question a lot as well. And so it's good to be able to clear things up with what people are doing with regards to like inflating peak profitability for carriers with either peak of the soft market cycle or peak of advertising spend. And so the short answer to that is conflating those things, they couldn't be further from the truth because -- and to understand this, I think you really need to take a step back and like think about hard markets and soft markets and how they work.

瑪麗亞，我很感謝你的提問。是的，正如你所暗示的，我們也常被問到這個問題。所以，澄清一下人們將營運商的獲利高峰與市場疲軟週期的高峰或廣告支出高峰混為一談的做法非常重要。簡而言之，混淆這兩者是完全錯誤的，因為——要理解這一點，我認為你需要退一步思考硬市場和軟市場，以及它們是如何運作的。

And so we just emerged from, what, a 2.5, 3-year hard market cycle. Hard markets are -- get kicked off when there is reduced profitability because higher-than-expected loss ratios. And so what ends up happening is carriers start to get tighter underwriting restrictions. As they raise rates, they pull back on marketing spend. And so what happens during a hard market is actually you have a baseline where you start from low margins and then you see margin expansion as the hard market progresses.

我們剛剛經歷了大約2.5到3年的市場低迷期。市場低迷期通常發生在獲利能力下降，例如賠付率高於預期的時候。因此，保險公司會開始收緊承保限制，在提高保費的同時削減行銷支出。所以，在市場低迷期，保險公司的利潤率會處於一個較低的基線水平，然後隨著市場低迷期的持續，利潤率會逐漸提高。

Now it starts to tip over into a soft market. And when those margins sort of start to peak and get to adequate levels, carriers then start to get more competitive. They get looser with their underwriting guidelines, start to reduce pricing and then invest in customer acquisition. And so all of that has the impact of actually compressing margins during the course of a soft market cycle.

現在市場開始進入疲軟期。當利潤率達到高峰並趨於合理水準時，保險公司之間的競爭就會加劇。他們會放寬承保標準，降低保費，並增加客戶獲取方面的投入。因此，所有這些因素都會在疲軟的市場週期中壓縮利潤率。

So when we hear things about carriers being at peak profitability, in a lot of ways, what that tells us is that we're just kicking off the meat of -- or the heart of the soft market cycle. And what you can see from our marketplace is that demand remains very, very top heavy.

所以，當我們聽到航空公司獲利達到頂峰的消息時，從很多方面來看，這表明我們才剛剛進入疲軟市場週期的核心階段。而從我們的市場來看，需求仍然非常集中在高端市場。

On one hand, we have 13 carriers who spend more than $1 million a month this quarter. That's the greatest number that we've had in history. And so we're seeing a lot of nascent broadening of demand. But again, we're as top heavy as ever with some of the leading carriers who are early to take rate, stepping on the gas in terms of marketing spend that continue to dominate our marketplace.

一方面，本季有13家業者的月支出超過100萬美元，這是我們史上最高的數字。因此，我們看到市場需求正在初步成長。但另一方面，市場格局依然高度集中，一些領先的業者率先採取行動，加大行銷投入，繼續主導著我們的市場。

And so with rates starting to come down, right, with profitability starting to come down as well, I think what you're going to start to see are a lot more carriers really stepping on the gas in 2026 and beyond, right, as we really enter into the meat of the soft market cycle and a broadening of demand that I think will continue and be a tailwind for us for the years to come.

因此，隨著運價開始下降，獲利能力也開始下降，我認為在 2026 年及以後，你會看到更多航空公司真正加速發展，因為我們將真正進入疲軟市場週期的核心階段，需求也將擴大，我認為這種擴大將持續下去，並在未來幾年成為我們的順風。

I do think it's worth pointing out that soft market cycles tend to last a lot longer than hard market cycles. Hard market cycles tend to be in about two to three year increments, and soft market cycles historically have been 2 to 3 times that, so about five to seven years on average. And so what we're expecting is several years of tailwind in terms of carrier advertising spend growth. We also expect to see the next level of growth in advertising spend really being from a broader set of top carriers in the top 25 with a lot of that spend, as Pat mentioned, coming through the open exchange, again, as demand broadens out.

我認為值得指出的是，疲軟的市場週期往往比強勁的市場週期持續時間更長。強勁的市場週期通常以兩到三年為一個週期，而疲軟的市場週期歷來是其兩到三倍，平均約為五到七年。因此，我們預計未來幾年營運商廣告支出成長將保持順風。我們也預計，下一階段的廣告支出成長將主要來自排名前25位的頂級營運商，正如Pat所提到的，其中許多支出將透過公開交易平台進行，因為需求範圍正在擴大。

And so I hope that explains sort of our position and what we're hearing in the marketplace about peak carrier profitability. Certainly, that doesn't concern us at all. And if anything, that gets us excited that really the heart of the soft market is just beginning.

所以，我希望這能解釋清楚我們的立場，以及我們從市場上聽到的關於航空公司獲利能力達到頂峰的說法。當然，我們對此毫不擔心。恰恰相反，這讓我們感到興奮，因為疲軟的市場真正開始才剛拉開序幕。

Yeah. And Maria, this is Pat. I'll just add kind of one thing to what Steve said there, which is that we've got -- we're two years into an improving operating environment, and our guidance for Q4 envisions 45% year-over-year transaction value growth for us in P&C. So we feel like we've got the wind at our back right now, and we've got pretty nice operating momentum going into 2026.

是的。瑪麗亞，我是派特。我只想補充一點史蒂夫剛才說的，那就是我們已經經歷了兩年營運環境的改善，我們對第四季財產險和意外險業務的交易額同比增長預期為45%。所以我們感覺現在情勢一片大好，而且到2026年，我們的營運動能也相當不錯。

Yeah. That's great, that's very helpful. And then can you maybe share a little bit more color on the transition within your Health vertical? Is that largely complete at this point? And I guess, how are you thinking about the long-term opportunity within that vertical sort of outside of under-65?

是的，太好了，這很有幫助。能否再詳細介紹一下您健康業務板塊的轉型？目前轉型是否基本完成？另外，您如何看待該板塊（65歲以下人群除外）的長期發展機會？

I'll take the second part first, I think Pat can address the first part of your question, which is -- I mean, what we're looking with in the health insurance vertical is really focused on Medicare Advantage. We think that's a very strategic vertical. Again, I'll reiterate that it's a $0.5 trillion industry, really new to direct-to-consumer advertising. So we see a ton of opportunities there over the long term.

我先回答第二個問題，我想帕特可以回答你問題的第一個部分，也就是——我的意思是，我們在健康保險領域關注的重點是聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃（M​​edicare Advantage）。我們認為這是一個非常具有戰略意義的垂直領域。我再次強調，這是一個價值 500 億美元的產業，對於直接面向消費者的廣告來說還很新。因此，我們看到了該領域長期的巨大機會。

It's a challenging market environment right now with medical loss ratios being elevated because of high utilization rates. And so what you're seeing is a lot of plan redesigns and carriers pulling out of certain markets. And so we have our own version within the Medicare Advantage space of a hard market that we saw in the P&C space. And so I think most people are expecting that, the market to recover, I think, starting next enrollment period. And certainly, we anticipate carriers starting to reinvest in growth during that time.

目前市場環境充滿挑戰，由於醫療資源利用率高，醫療損失率居高不下。因此，我們看到許多保險計畫都在重新設計，保險公司也紛紛退出某些市場。我們在聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃領域也遇到了與財產和意外保險領域類似的嚴峻市場情況。我認為大多數人都預期市場會在下一個投保期開始復甦。當然，我們也預期保險公司屆時會開始重新投資以促進成長。

But really for us, it's about the long-term opportunity that Medicare Advantage offers just because of the market size and really where the carriers are in terms of their adoption cycle of direct-to-consumer advertising and direct-to-consumer platforms. And we see a lot of opportunities for integrated solutions to really help that space navigate the transition to direct-to-consumer distribution model.

但對我們而言，真正重要的是聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃（M​​edicare Advantage）提供的長期機遇，這得益於其龐大的市場規模，以及保險公司在採用直接面向消費者的廣告和平台方面所處的階段。我們看到了許多機會，可以透過整合解決方案，幫助該領域順利過渡到直接面向消費者的分銷模式。

And Maria, I'll tackle the shorter-term portion of that question and kind of the near-term financial outlook. So I think in under-65, we've taken a number of actions to kind of rebaseline that business. We think Q4 is kind of approximating that new baseline for us. And so for the quarter, we're expecting plus or minus 65% year-over-year decline in transaction value with contribution down 80% to 90%. And so it's a business that should make us $1 million or $2 million in Q4, and we believe it will be kind of a mid-single-digit million dollar contribution business for us next year.

瑪麗亞，我來回答這個問題中關於短期和近期財務前景的部分。在65歲以下人群業務方面，我們採取了一些措施來重新調整該業務的基準線。我們認為第四季基本上達到了新的基準線。因此，我們預期該季度交易額將年減約65%，貢獻額將下降80%至90%。所以，這項業務在第四季應該能為我們帶來100萬至200萬美元的收入，我們相信明年它將為我們帶來數百萬美元的貢獻。

And kind of from a compliance standpoint, we've already implemented effectively all of the necessary changes. There hasn't been a whole lot of cost that we've had to layer on to do that. And actually, we've embedded some AI technologies into that framework, which has allowed us to automate a lot of the monitoring that historically would have been labor intensive. So we feel like we're in a spot where towards the middle of next year, the comps for the health vertical will start to normalize.

從合規角度來看，我們已經基本完成了所有必要的變更。為此，我們並沒有增加太多額外成本。實際上，我們也在框架中嵌入了一些人工智慧技術，這使我們能夠自動化許多以往需要大量人工的監控工作。因此，我們認為到明年年中，醫療保健產業的績效比較將開始趨於正常化。

Cory Carpenter, JPMorgan.

科里·卡彭特，摩根大通。

I was hoping you could drill down a bit more into what you're seeing in the discussions you're having with carriers. I think, Steve, last time we talked, carriers hit the pause button a little bit just given the tariff uncertainty started to ramp in 3Q, and now you're guiding to accelerating growth in 4Q. So maybe just talk about some of the dynamics you saw intra-quarter? And then also, how much visibility do you have into year-end budgets at this point in the cycle?

我希望您能更深入地談談您與運營商討論的內容。史蒂夫，上次我們談話時，由於第三季度資費的不確定性加劇，運營商似乎暫時按下了暫停鍵，而您現在預測第四季度將加速增長。那麼，您能否談談您在季度內觀察到的一些動態？另外，在目前這個階段，您對年底預算的了解程度如何？

Sure, Cory. Yes, so I think that when carriers hit pause, it was related to the uncertainties around tariffs. I think that paused -- I guess that pause was relatively short-lived. And I think the carriers who were spending aggressively prior to Q3, I think, resumed their levels of spend. And we're continuing to see them grow their spend right now, as you can see from our estimates and our forecast.

當然，科里。是的，我認為航空公司暫停營運與關稅方面的不確定性有關。我認為這種暫停——我猜想——持續時間相對較短。我認為在第三季之前積極支出的航空公司已經恢復了先前的支出水準。正如您從我們的估算和預測中看到的那樣，我們目前仍在看到他們的支出成長。

I think in terms of visibility into Q4, I mean, obviously, we're sharing that with the guidance that we have. We -- there has been a tendency in these types of markets for there to be excess budget being made available to us as the quarter starts to wind down. And again, because we're a very efficient source and very tractable source, that excess budget does tend to accrue to us. But it's not something that we're planning on right now. And so our Q4 estimates really have our best estimate to what the carrier budgets are going to be for the remainder of the year.

我認為，就第四季度的業績展望而言，我們顯然會根據現有的指引進行分享。在這些類型的市場中，通常情況下，隨著季度接近尾聲，我們會獲得一些額外的預算。而且，由於我們是一個有效率且易於管理的資金來源，這些額外的預算往往會歸我們所有。但這並非我們目前的計劃。因此，我們對第四季度的預測實際上是基於我們對營運商今年剩餘時間預算的最佳預估。

We are starting to have some early discussions about 2026 budget. And those discussions have been highly encouraging. And again, they really support the narrative that up to this point, really the recovery of the ad spend market coming out of the hard market has been very narrow and robustly driven by a narrow set of carriers. Really, what we're doing is having discussions with everyone else and starting to see that there really will be a meaningful broadening of demand in 2026.

我們已開始就2026年預算進行一些初步討論，這些討論令人鼓舞。這些討論再次印證了先前的觀點，即迄今為止，廣告支出市場從低迷期復甦的範圍非常狹窄，且主要由少數幾家業者推動。而現在，我們正在與其他所有營運商進行磋商，並開始看到2026年市場需求將顯著成長。

The timing of that, I think, is going to be hard to gauge. Certainly, those carriers that we're talking about who have an early lead have taken a sizable lead. So it will take a bit of time and a few quarters for the expansion or the broadening of demand to really start to have a positive impact on our take rates. But certainly, we've been very encouraged by the early discussions that we've had with a lot of the major carriers, again, outside the top couple. And really do anticipate that '26 is going to be a year where we see meaningful broadening of demand within our P&C marketplace.

我認為，具體時間很難預測。當然，我們提到的那些先行者已經取得了相當大的領先優勢。因此，市場擴張或需求成長真正開始對我們的承保率產生正面影響，還需要一些時間和幾季的時間。但可以肯定的是，我們與許多主要保險公司（除了那幾家頂級公司之外）的早期洽談讓我們倍感鼓舞。我們確實預計，2026年將是財產保險市場需求顯著成長的一年。

You answered my second question, which was any early thoughts in '26 so I'll turn it back over.

你已經回答了我的第二個問題，也就是你對 2026 年的早期想法，所以我再把它轉回去。

Tommy McJoynt, KBW.

Tommy McJoynt，KBW。

A couple of questions on your comments around the take rate. Can you remind us, is there seasonality in 4Q? And then I just want to confirm that you're expecting both those quarters, the fourth quarter and then the start of 2026 to be 7% take rate. And then just your expectation about increasing the take rate over time, is that a function of a broader array of demand partners or supply partners or both?

關於您提到的成交率，我有幾個問題。您能否提醒一下，第四季是否有季節性因素？另外，我想確認一下，您是否預計第四季以及2026年初的成交率都將達到7%？還有，您預計成交率會隨著時間推移而提高，這是否與更廣泛的需求方合作夥伴或供應方合作夥伴有關，還是兩者兼而有之？

Perfect. And Tommy, I can get started on that question, and then Steve and I can potentially tag team the last one. So on seasonality, historically, we had a good bit of seasonality in our business on take rate. And that was when P&C was a smaller percentage of the total mix and our Health vertical was significantly larger. Now we're in a spot in Q4 with under-65 having stepped down pretty meaningfully, where there is a lot less take rate seasonality in the business because the Medicare portion of that looks pretty similar to P&C overall.

完美。湯米，我可以先回答這個問題，然後我和史蒂夫可以合作回答最後一個問題。關於季節性，從歷史資料來看，我們業務的核保率受季節性影響較大。當時，財產險和意外險在整體業務中所佔比例較小，而健康險業務則大得多。現在到了第四季度，65歲以下人口的業務量大幅下降，承保率的季節性影響也小了很多，因為其中的醫療保險部分與整體財產險業務的情況非常相似。

And to tackle the second part of the question, yes, our guidance for Q4 is for around a 7% take rate. As a reminder, for us, take rate is contribution divided by transaction value. And our view is that, that 7% plus or minus is kind of the right benchmark for the next couple of quarters.

至於問題的第二部分，是的，我們對第四季的佣金率預期在7%左右。再次提醒一下，我們的佣金率是指貢獻金額除以交易額。我們認為，7%左右的佣金率在未來幾季都是比較合適的基準。

And kind of moving to the over time and the opportunity to drive take rate from -- to drive take rate over time, a broadening of demand would be kind of the primary driver of that happening. Obviously, broadening supply could help as well, but we believe that the demand side is the bigger opportunity. As a reminder, the largest advertisers with us tend to be relatively more private, smaller advertisers tend to be either fully open or very, very heavily open. And so as we see more people come into the marketplace and more people start to spend seven-figures a month, we would expect to see the business start to shift more to open over time.

隨著時間的推移，提高廣告轉換率的關鍵在於需求的擴大。當然，擴大供應也會有所幫助，但我們認為需求面才是更大的機會。需要指出的是，我們最大的廣告客戶往往比較注重隱私，而規模較小的廣告客戶則不是完全開放，就是非常開放。因此，隨著越來越多的人進入市場，越來越多的人開始每月花費七位數，我們預期業務模式會逐漸轉向開放方向。

Yeah, And what I'll add is that as the demand starts to broaden out, which will be the key driver of take rate improvement on our end, one of the reasons that, that will primarily flow through the open marketplace is that the next set of carriers, right, who are underrepresented in our marketplace need a lot of help from us, right? So they leverage our managed services and our machine learning algorithms to optimize their campaigns on their behalf. They leverage our platform solutions and integrated platform solutions in order to help host and optimize certain parts of the conversion experience.

是的，我還要補充一點，隨著需求開始擴大，這將是我們提高轉換率的關鍵驅動力。其中一個主要原因，也是推動市場成長的關鍵因素，是那些目前在我們市場中代表性不足的業者需要我們的大力幫助。因此，他們會利用我們的託管服務和機器學習演算法來優化他們的行銷活動。他們還會利用我們的平台解決方案和整合平台解決方案來託管和優化轉換體驗的某些環節。

And so we're putting a lot of effort behind those services that will better support and accelerate a lot of these carriers' journeys to really like embracing direct-to-consumer and embracing our channel and being successful in our channel. And again, all of those services are available really only through the open marketplace.

因此，我們正投入大量精力開發這些服務，以更好地支援和加速眾多營運商向直接面向消費者模式轉型，並充分利用我們的管道，最終取得成功。再次強調，所有這些服務只能透過開放市場獲得。

And so that's why as demand starts to broaden now and we see other carriers within the top 25 really start to punch their weight in terms of allocation of advertising dollars to us, the way we make them successful is through these integrated solutions and managed services. And again, most of that spend is going to flow through the open exchange, which will have, over time, a very positive impact on our take rate.

因此，隨著需求開始擴大，我們看到其他排名前25的營運商也開始加大對我們廣告預算的投入，而我們幫助他們取得成功的方式就是透過這些整合解決方案和管理服務。此外，大部分支出將透過開放式交易平台進行，隨著時間的推移，這將對我們的廣告投放率產生非常積極的影響。

Got it. And then switching over to some of our expectations for the overhead expenses. Do you guys have any plans to either add or account managers or technology headcount or make any other major new technology investments that we should be thinking about as we enter 2026 and think about the fixed expense leverage in the business next year?

明白了。接下來我們來談談營運成本的預期。你們是否有任何計劃，例如增加客戶經理或技術人員，或進行其他任何重大的新技術投資？這些是我們在進入2026年並考慮明年業務固定成本槓桿效應時應該考慮的。

Yeah. And Tommy, thanks for the question. I would say we -- over the last couple of years, we've been consistently investing in the business, but doing so in a thoughtful and measured way. And we are a business that we've always run lean. We've got about 150 employees today. We're a bootstrap business. Efficiency is in our DNA. We will continue to invest to support the growth in our business, but we would expect to be a business where we would see leverage on those overhead items over time. And when I say leverage, I mean, the mapping from contribution to adjusted EBITDA being flat to increasing over time.

是的。湯米，謝謝你的提問。我想說的是，過去幾年我們一直在持續投資業務，但始終採取深思熟慮、穩健的方式。我們一直秉持著精實營運的理念。目前我們有大約150名員工。我們是一家自籌資金的企業。效率已經融入我們的基因。我們將繼續投資以支持業務成長，但我們預計隨著時間的推移，這些營運成本將會得到有效控制。我所說的有效控制，是指調整後EBITDA與利潤之間的比率從持平逐漸上升。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

Andrew Kligerman，TD Cowen。

First question is around open versus private. And as private becomes a bigger proportion, I think first nine months, it's now 48%. Steve and Pat, how do you see that playing out long term, maybe three years out, five years out? Like where does that mix kind of settle down if it ever settles down?

第一個問題是關於公立和私立學校的比例。隨著私立學校比例的增加，我認為前九個月的比例已經達到了48%。史蒂夫和帕特，你們認為這種趨勢會如何長期發展？例如三年後、五年後？這種比例最終會穩定下來嗎？

Yeah, I think it's a good question. I think we're at unusually high levels favoring the private marketplace right now. And again, I think that's really a nature of how the market has recovered on the heels of this generationally difficult hard market cycle. What we had was a couple of leading carriers who are early to take rate, right, step on the gas a full 1.5 years or so ahead of everyone else. And these are carriers who are very sophisticated in direct-to-consumer advertising, very sophisticated and well experienced in our marketplace. And the private marketplace product was designed to support advertisers like this and their relationships with some of our biggest publishers.

是的，我覺得這是個好問題。我認為目前私有市場處於異常高的比例。而且，我認為這實際上是市場在經歷了前所未有的艱難市場週期後復甦的必然結果。我們看到的是幾家領先的營運商搶佔先機，比其他營運商提前一年半左右就採取了行動。這些業者在直接面向消費者的廣告領域非常成熟，對我們的市場非常了解且熟悉。私有市場產品的設計初衷就是為了支持這類廣告商及其與我們一些最大出版商的合作關係。

And so I think the way that the market has recovered has really lent itself to us being over-indexed on the private side. And I think as the long term plays out, again, as the industry and the recovery and the demand starts to broaden out, not just because carriers who are later to take rate and get to rate adequacy start to spend in advertising and growth again, but because the whole secular trend towards direct-to-consumer advertising, which means online advertising and greater budgets allocated to measurable sources like us, as that's starting to really take foot again, right, or take hold again, what we expect are just more and more of the top 25 carriers allocating a greater percentage of their overall customer acquisition spend and converting in effect, right, a lot of commissions that they're paying to agents into advertising dollars that they spend with us as they prioritize their direct channels.

所以我認為，市場復甦的方式確實有利於我們在私人管道方面進行過度投資。而且我認為，從長遠來看，隨著行業復甦和需求開始擴大，這不僅是因為那些較晚調整費率並達到合理費率水平的保險公司開始重新投入廣告和發展，還因為面向消費者的直接廣告這一長期趨勢（即在線廣告以及分配給像我們這樣可衡量管道的更多預算）正在再次興起，我們預計，排名前25位的保險公司會將更大比例的客戶獲取支出分配給我們，並將支付給代理商的大量佣金轉化為廣告資金，用於在我們這裡投放廣告，因為他們優先發展直接管道。

And again, this growth based on the support that they'll need, right, and being relatively new to this channel, the services and the platform support that they're going to require to be successful in our channel, we believe that is predominantly going to flow through the open exchange. And so I think what you're going to see over time is the shift back to the open exchange.

再次強調，這種成長是基於他們需要的支持，而且由於他們相對較新，所以他們需要獲得相應的服務和平台支援才能在我們的管道中取得成功。我們認為，這些支援主要將透過開放式交易平台來實現。因此，我認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到交易平台重新回歸開放式交易平台。

And again, we don't have any views as to exactly what that level should be. But certainly, I think internally, what we think is that the private open mix is kind of at a high watermark because of the unusual nature of the heaviness of demand right now, which is really a byproduct of how this market recovered after the most recent hard market cycle.

再次強調，我們對這個水準的具體數值並沒有特定的看法。但可以肯定的是，我們內部認為，由於目前需求異常旺盛，私人開放式投資的比例已經處於高位，而這實際上是市場在最近一次嚴峻的市場週期後復甦的必然結果。

I see. So maybe even next year, it could start to inflect more toward open again?

我明白了。所以也許明年，情況就會開始朝著重新開放的方向發展？

I think that's our anticipation. And again, I think what we're expecting is that for the next few quarters, the take rates will stay about where they are, right? But we do anticipate that next year, the demand will start to broaden out. And so you're going to see carriers 10 and 11 and 12 and 15 and 20 really start to spend more in our marketplace. And again, that's going to flow through the open exchange. And over time, that's really going to start to skew that mix back towards open from, I think, what we internally see as a high watermark right now.

我認為這就是我們的預期。而且，我們預計未來幾個季度，承保率將保持在目前的水平，對吧？但我們預計明年需求將開始擴大。因此，你會看到第 10、11、12、15 和 20 號營運商開始在我們的平台上投入更多資金。同樣，這些資金將透過公開交易平台流入市場。隨著時間的推移，這將使市場結構從我們內部認為的目前高點回落，重新向公開交易平台傾斜。

Got it, Steve. And then in your shareholder letter, you talked about how most carriers were investing well below their full potential. And there's this kind of analysis where you say that the investing was below 2019 levels last year, 2024, even though premium was up 44%. So I'm kind of -- here we are a year later, premium has kind of leveled out year-over-year, I think. What -- where are we versus 2019 in where carriers are investing? I'm curious as to where we are now as opposed to the '24 number.

明白了，史蒂夫。你在致股東的信中提到，大多數保險公司的投資遠低於其應有的水準。你也分析指出，儘管保費上漲了44%，但去年的投資水準低於2019年和2024年的水準。現在一年過去了，保費似乎已經趨於平穩。那麼，與2019年相比，保險公司目前的投資水準如何呢？我很想知道我們現在的投資水準與2024年的數據相比如何。

Sure. And let me try to answer the question and tell me if I'm not answering the question that you're asking. But I think where we are versus 2019, I think we've highlighted that stat just to show that even though the overall volume has gone up within our marketplace, with a couple of leading carriers really investing heavily in growth in '24 and '25, that the vast majority of other carriers, again, top 25 carriers, really weren't back to the pre-hard market levels of 2019 and 2020. And that's one of the reasons that we're still -- we're top heavier now than we were in 2020.

當然。讓我試著回答您的問題，如果您覺得我的回答沒有達到您的預期，請告訴我。我認為，與 2019 年相比，我們之所以強調這個數據，是為了說明儘管我們市場的整體運量有所增長，幾家領先的航空公司在 2024 年和 2025 年也確實大力投資增長，但絕大多數其他航空公司，也就是排名前 25 的航空公司，實際上還沒有恢復到 2019 年和 2020 年市場和 2020 年市場之前低迷的水平。這也是我們現在的市場結構仍然比 2020 年更頭重腳輕的原因之一。

Now if you're asking where the carriers are right now versus 2019, what I'll tell you is that I'll point back to the FEHB of having 13 carriers spending more than $1 million a month. That's an all-time high for us. I know that sounds a bit paradoxical with what I just said. But what that means is that, a, our marketplace has scaled tremendously as everyone knows. But b, we do see more carriers now than 2019 and 2020 who are really ready to adopt this channel.

如果您想知道目前保險公司與 2019 年相比的情況，我會告訴您，聯邦僱員健康福利計劃 (FEHB) 的數據表明，有 13 家保險公司每月支出超過 100 萬美元。這創下了歷史新高。我知道這聽起來似乎與我剛才所說的有些矛盾。但這說明，首先，如大家所知，我們的市場規模已經大幅擴大。其次，與 2019 年和 2020 年相比，我們現在確實看到更多保險公司真正準備好採用這種管道。

We have more integrations with more carriers than before to enable them to be successful in this channel. And so we see the nascent broadening of demand. We see a lot of encouraging signs from the discussions that we're having with these carriers. And so we see more carriers than ever before really poised to be able to grow in this channel and to advertise and punch their weight in this channel than we have ever seen and certainly a lot more than what we saw in 2019 or 2020. Now Andrew, did that answer your question?

我們與更多運營商進行了整合，以幫助他們在這個管道中取得成功。因此，我們看到了需求的初步成長。我們與這些業者的討論也帶來了許多令人鼓舞的跡象。因此，我們看到比以往任何時候都多的運營商真正準備好在這個渠道發展壯大，並在這個渠道中發揮更大的作用，這比我們以往任何時候都多，當然也比2019年或2020年的情況要好得多。安德魯，這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yeah, it did. It feels like directionally, there's still a lot of momentum there. Is that kind of the right take on what you're saying (multiple speakers) --

是的，確實如此。感覺從方向來看，這股動能依然強勁。你（多位發言者）的意思是不是也差不多？

100%. That's absolutely right. I mean I think because of what happened with the pandemic-related hard market cycle and not transitioning to a soft market cycle, what, in some ways, gotten lost in a lot of that is just the secular shift that the whole industry is undergoing, right? And so really, at the heart of it is really that people are shopping for insurance online.

百分之百正確。我的意思是，我認為由於疫情導致的硬市場週期，以及未能順利過渡到軟市場週期，在某種程度上，整個行業正在經歷的長期轉變被忽視了，對吧？所以，問題的核心在於人們正在網路上購買保險。

The best way to connect with these consumers and sell policies to consumers is through advertising online and enabling policy sales online, yet still two-thirds of policies are still sold offline where the main expense -- distribution expense is commissions paid to agents. And so what you would expect to see are the advertising budgets continue to go up right, over time because what you're essentially doing is converting commissions that are paid to agents, which are in the neighborhood of -- for US personal auto, like $17 billion, $18 billion a year, you would expect to see more of that being converted into advertising dollars as more and more carriers really adopt direct-to-consumer marketing as a necessary part of their distribution strategy.

與這些消費者建立聯繫並向他們銷售保單的最佳方式是透過線上廣告和線上銷售，然而，目前仍有三分之二的保單是透過離線管道銷售的，而主要成本——分銷成本——是支付給代理人的佣金。因此，隨著時間的推移，廣告預算持續成長也就不足為奇了，因為本質上，你正在將支付給代理人的佣金轉化為廣告支出。光是在美國，個人汽車保險的佣金就高達每年170億至180億美元左右。隨著越來越多的保險公司將直接面向消費者的行銷作為其分銷策略的必要組成部分，你會看到其中更多的資金被轉化為廣告支出。

And so it's that secular story that I think got lost in the cyclical story that we've had over the past few years, and we're seeing that play out. And again, we're seeing that play out in the form of having 13, 15, 20 carriers at this point, who I think are really well poised to start to grow in our channel over the next several years during the upcoming soft market cycle.

所以，我認為正是這種長期趨勢被過去幾年我們所經歷的周期性波動所掩蓋，而我們現在正目睹著這種趨勢的演變。同樣，我們也看到這種趨勢體現在，目前有13、15、20家營運商，我認為他們已經做好充分準備，在未來幾年即將到來的疲軟市場週期中，在我們的通路中實現成長。

Super helpful. And if I could just sneak one last one in. Do you -- with all the turbulence in Medicare Med Advantage over the last three to four years, and it's been brutal, do you ever see that business getting back to -- because I think a lot has shifted to Med Supplement now. Do you ever see that business getting back to what it looked like in 2021 or 2020 or 2019? I forget what year, but it's been a rough number of years.

非常有用。如果可以的話，我再問最後一個問題。在過去三、四年裡，聯邦醫療保險優勢計畫（Medicare Med Advantage）經歷了許多動盪，情況非常嚴峻。您認為這項業務還有可能恢復到以前的水平嗎？因為我覺得現在很多業務都轉移到了補充醫療保險（Med Supplement）上。您認為這項業務還有可能恢復到2021年、2020年或2019年的水準嗎？我記不清是哪一年了，但那幾年確實很難熬。

Yeah, I mean, I think that's a great question. I think that -- I think people in the industry don't expect a return to, I think, the frothiness that you saw in those markets when, quite honestly, the Medicare Advantage payers or the carriers in this case were probably making a little bit too much from Medicare Advantage policies.

是的，我覺得這是一個很好的問題。我認為——我認為業內人士並不預期市場會重現之前那種泡沫，坦白說，當時的醫療保險優勢計劃支付方或保險公司可能從醫療保險優勢計劃保單中賺取了過多的利潤。

And again, there's been a resetting of payment rates, right, a resetting a lot of the plan. And the fact remains that it's a $0.5 trillion industry, right? Medicare Advantage policies are still profitable and big profit centers for these major carriers like UHC and Humana just because in the past, it used to be 2 to 3 times as profitable to sell a Medicare Advantage policy as another policy.

而且，支付費率又進行了調整，對吧？很多計劃內容也都進行了調整。但事實仍然是，這是一個價值 500 億美元的產業，對吧？聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃仍然有利可圖，是像 UHC 和 Humana 這樣的大型保險公司重要的利潤來源，因為過去銷售一份聯邦醫療保險優勢計劃的利潤是其他保單的 2 到 3 倍。

The fact that it's probably going to come down and to be maybe nearly as profitable as other health insurance policies they see, I mean, certainly, I think the frothiness will go away. But I do think that as that market matures, you're going to start to see it evolve more like the auto insurance industry where a lot of the carriers, depending on how they're feeling about their plan design, start to get aggressive about advertising and taking market share away from other carriers.

它的保費很可能會下降，最終可能和其他健康保險產品一樣有利可圖，我的意思是，當然，我認為泡沫會消退。但我確實認為，隨著市場的成熟，它的發展趨勢會越來越像汽車保險業，許多保險公司會根據自身對保險方案設計的滿意度，開始積極投放廣告，從其他保險公司手中搶佔市場份額。

And so we do see the market starting to settling down over time. And again, one that's going to look a lot more like the auto insurance industry than it does today. But certainly, I think a lot of the frothiness that you saw in the early period, I think, probably will be gone for a while.

因此，我們看到市場正逐漸趨於穩定。而且，未來的市場格局將更接近汽車保險業，而不是像現在這樣。當然，我認為早期出現的泡沫現象可能會在一段時間內消失。

Yeah, And Steve, and this is Pat. I'll probably just add one or two things to what Steve said on that, which is I think the consumer penetration of Medicare Advantage plans continues to tick up a point or two every year. I think this year -- for this plan year, 54% of the enrollees chose it, and the estimates show that number going up to about 64% by 2034.

是的，我是史蒂夫，我是帕特。我可能要補充史蒂夫剛才說的幾點，我認為聯邦醫療保險優勢計畫的消費者滲透率每年都在穩定上升。今年——也就是本計畫年度，54%的受保人選擇了該計劃，預計到2034年，這個數字將上升到64%左右。

And the other nice tailwind we think we have in the Medicare market for a number of years to come is online shopping. And so as you get 65-year-olds aging into Medicare, they are much more Internet savvy than the average Medicare consumer. And so we think that trend is going to be continuing every year, and we're going to have more and more Internet-native seniors coming into the market, which should be very, very good for our business over time.

我們認為，未來幾年醫療保險市場的另一個利多因素是網上購物。隨著65歲及以上人口加入醫療保險計劃，他們比一般醫療保險消費者更精通網路。因此，我們認為這種趨勢將逐年持續，越來越多的網路原生老年人將進入市場，從長遠來看，這對我們的業務發展非常有利。

Ben Hendrix, RBC Capital Markets.

Ben Hendrix，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

This is Michael Murray on for Ben. Congrats on the strong results. It looks like normalizing for the under-65 segment, adjusted EBITDA grew 31%. But then looking at your guidance, you expect EBITDA to be flat on transaction value growth of 38%, excluding the under-65 segment. So is there a level of conservatism baked in there? Any color on the puts and takes would be helpful.

我是麥可‧莫瑞，替本報道。祝賀你們取得如此強勁的業績。剔除65歲以下族群的影響後，調整後的EBITDA成長了31%。但看看你們的業績指引，如果剔除65歲以下族群的影響，預計EBITDA將持平，交易額成長38%。所以，你們的指引是否包含一定程度的保守因素？能否詳細解釋一下你們的預期？

Yeah. And Michael, this is Pat. I would say that our philosophy from a guidance standpoint is we guide to kind of based on what we know as of today and what we have a high degree of confidence in. And I think the -- our track record against guidance has been pretty good over time, and we're guiding based on 28 days of actuals we've seen in this quarter and our view on how things are going to play out.

是的。邁克爾，我是帕特。從業績指引的角度來看，我們的理念是基於我們目前掌握的資訊以及我們高度確信的資訊來制定指引。我認為，我們以往的業績指引記錄一直相當不錯，而我們目前的指引是基於本季28天的實際數據以及我們對未來發展趨勢的判斷。

So I think our goal is always to deliver the best numbers that we can, and we're going to be looking to do that this quarter. And I think we'll have more to report when we come out with earnings in February, but we try to be realistic and put out numbers that we believe we can achieve.

所以我認為我們的目標始終是盡可能取得最好的業績，我們本季也會努力實現這一目標。我想我們在二月公佈財報時會有更多資訊要透露，但我們會盡量保持務實，公佈我們認為能夠實現的業績目標。

Okay. And just shifting gears. So a large MA payer recently indicated that they would be suspending their relationship with a large telebroker, which had high complaints to Medicare and also the least engaged members. Do you see any opportunity to gain share here just given payers' increased focus on quality leads?

好的。我們換個話題。最近，一家大型醫療保險優勢計劃（M​​A）支付方表示，他們將暫停與一家大型電話銷售經紀公司的合作關係。這家經紀公司收到的聯邦醫療保險投訴很多，而且會員參與度也很低。鑑於支付方越來越重視高品質的銷售線索，您認為這方面是否有任何搶佔市場份額的機會？

Yeah, I do. The way I see it is that is that I think there is a growing trend with payers to actually start to acquire customers directly and rely less on brokers and telebrokers. And so again, it's unfortunate that these types of things happen, right? Certainly, I think one of the reliance on telebrokers of this industry is that a lot of the carriers within the Medicare space are relatively new direct-to-consumer and certainly new to online customer acquisition.

是的，我同意。我認為，支付方越來越傾向於直接獲取客戶，減少對經紀人和電話經紀人的依賴，這已成為一種趨勢。所以，這類事情的發生確實令人遺憾，對吧？當然，我認為這個行業之所以如此依賴電話經紀人，是因為許多醫療保險公司都是相對較新的直接面向消費者的模式，而且在線客戶獲取方面也比較新。

So I think as that industry gets more well versed in that area, I think there will be a shift from reliance almost entirely on brokers and telebrokers and e-brokers to sell policies and, again, a greater shift to carriers selling policies directly. And that's something that you saw in the auto insurance industry in the early days, and we expect that trend to take hold within the Medicare Advantage space over time.

所以我認為，隨著該行業對這方面了解得越來越深入，銷售保單的方式將會發生轉變，不再幾乎完全依賴經紀人、電話經紀人和網路經紀人，而是更多地轉向保險公司直接銷售保單。這種轉變在早期的汽車保險產業就已經出現，我們預期這種趨勢最終也會在聯邦醫療保險優勢計畫（Medicare Advantage）領域得到發展。

Okay. There are no further questions at this time. And that's all for now.

好的。目前沒有其他問題了。今天就到這裡。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you all for joining. And that concludes today's conference call. All participants may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。所有與會者現在可以斷開連接了。