Mattel Inc (MAT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Mattel's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到美泰 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. David Zbojniewicz, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 David Zbojniewicz 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are Ynon Kreiz, Mattel's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Richard Dickson, Mattel's President and Chief Operating Officer; and Anthony DiSilvestro, Mattel's Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。今天和我一起的有 Mattel 董事長兼首席執行官 Ynon Kreiz； Richard Dickson，Mattel 總裁兼首席運營官；和 Mattel 的首席財務官 Anthony DiSilvestro。

As you know, this afternoon, we reported Mattel's 2022 fourth quarter and full year financial results. We will begin today's call with Ynon and Anthony providing commentary on our results. After which, we will provide some time for Ynon, Richard and Anthony to take questions.

如您所知，今天下午，我們公佈了美泰 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。我們將開始今天的電話會議，Ynon 和 Anthony 將對我們的結果發表評論。之後，我們將為 Ynon、Richard 和 Anthony 提供一些時間來回答問題。

To help supplement our discussion today, we have provided you with a slide presentation. Our discussion, slide presentation and earnings release may reference non-GAAP financial measures, including: adjusted gross profit and adjusted gross margin; adjusted other selling and administrative expenses; adjusted operating income or loss and adjusted operating income or loss margin; adjusted earnings per share; adjusted tax rate; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA; free cash flow; free cash flow conversion; leverage ratio; net debt; and constant currency.

為了幫助補充我們今天的討論，我們為您提供了幻燈片演示。我們的討論、幻燈片演示和收益發布可能會參考非 GAAP 財務指標，包括：調整後的毛利和調整後的毛利率；調整後的其他銷售和管理費用；調整後的營業收入或虧損以及調整後的營業收入或虧損率；調整後每股收益；調整後的稅率；未計利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益，或 EBITDA；調整後的 EBITDA；自由現金流;自由現金流轉換；槓桿比率;淨債務;和不變的貨幣。

In addition, we present changes in gross billings, a key performance indicator. Please note that we may refer to gross billings as billings in our presentation and that gross billings figures referenced on this call will be stated in constant currency unless stated otherwise. Our slide presentation can be viewed in sync with today's call when you access it through the Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com.

此外，我們還展示了總賬單的變化，這是一項關鍵績效指標。請注意，在我們的演示文稿中，我們可能將總賬單稱為賬單，除非另有說明，否則本次電話會議中引用的總賬單數字將以固定貨幣表示。當您通過我們公司網站 corporate.mattel.com 的投資者部分訪問我們的幻燈片演示文稿時，可以與今天的電話會議同步查看。

The information required by Regulation G regarding non-GAAP financial measures as well as information regarding our key performance indicator is included in our earnings release and slide presentation, and both documents are also available in the Investors section of our corporate website. The preliminary financial results included in the press release and slide presentation represent the most current information available to management. The company's actual results when disclosed in its Form 10-K may differ from these preliminary results as a result of the completion of the company's financial closing procedures, final adjustments, completion of the review by the company's independent registered public accounting firm, and other developments that may arise between now and the disclosure of the final results.

G 條例要求的有關非 GAAP 財務措施的信息以及有關我們關鍵績效指標的信息包含在我們的收益發布和幻燈片演示中，這兩個文件也可以在我們公司網站的投資者部分找到。新聞稿和幻燈片演示中包含的初步財務結果代表了管理層可獲得的最新信息。由於公司財務結算程序的完成、最終調整、公司獨立註冊會計師事務所完成審查以及其他發展，公司在 10-K 表中披露的實際結果可能與這些初步結果不同從現在到最終結果披露之間可能會出現這種情況。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution you that certain statements made during the call are forward-looking, including statements related to the future performance of our business, brands, categories and product lines. Any statements we make about the future are, by their nature, uncertain. These statements are based on currently available information and assumptions, and they are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We described some of these uncertainties in the Risk Factors section of our 2021 annual report on Form 10-K, our first quarter 2022 quarterly report on Form 10-Q, our earnings release and the presentation and the other filings we make with the SEC from time to time as well as in other public statements. Mattel does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so, except as required by law.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，電話會議期間所做的某些陳述是前瞻性的，包括與我們業務、品牌、類別和產品線的未來表現相關的陳述。我們對未來所做的任何陳述，就其性質而言，都是不確定的。這些陳述基於當前可用的信息和假設，它們受到許多重大風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果不同。我們在 10-K 表的 2021 年年度報告的風險因素部分、2022 年第一季度 10-Q 表的季度報告、我們的收益發布和演示文稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中描述了其中一些不確定性不時以及在其他公開聲明中。 Mattel 不會更新前瞻性陳述，並明確表示不承擔任何更新前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Ynon.

現在我想把電話轉給 Ynon。

Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. Our fourth quarter results were below our expectations as the macroeconomic environment was more challenging than anticipated. We entered the quarter expecting POS to accelerate. We did see POS growth in the quarter, including double-digit growth in December, but it came later than expected and was not enough to offset lower-than-anticipated consumer demand in October and November. This led to increased discounts and promotions by retailers and a more cautious approach to their inventory replenishment as they manage their existing stock. Our gross margin was negatively affected by higher cost to manage our inventory, but lower operating expenses helped reduce the impact on our bottom line results.

感謝您加入我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。由於宏觀經濟環境比預期更具挑戰性，我們第四季度的業績低於我們的預期。我們進入本季度時預計 POS 會加速。我們確實看到該季度的 POS 增長，包括 12 月的兩位數增長，但它來得晚於預期，並且不足以抵消 10 月和 11 月低於預期的消費者需求。這導致零售商增加了折扣和促銷活動，並在管理現有庫存時對庫存補充採取了更加謹慎的態度。我們的毛利率受到更高的庫存管理成本的負面影響，但較低的運營費用有助於減少對我們底線結果的影響。

Despite the very challenging environment, we achieved full year growth in net sales in constant currency for the fourth consecutive year, including over 2021, which had the company's highest annual growth rate in decades. We lowered our debt, further improved leverage ratio and ended the year on strong financial footing. Our balance sheet is in the best position it has been in years, which will provide more flexibility to execute our strategy.

儘管環境極具挑戰性，但我們連續第四年實現了以固定匯率計算的全年淨銷售額增長，包括 2021 年，這是公司幾十年來最高的年增長率。我們降低了債務，進一步提高了槓桿率，並以強勁的財務基礎結束了這一年。我們的資產負債表處於多年來的最佳狀態，這將為執行我們的戰略提供更大的靈活性。

Looking at key financial metrics in the fourth quarter as compared to the prior year. Net sales declined 22%, or 19% in constant currency. Adjusted operating income declined $185 million to $79 million. Adjusted earnings per share declined $0.35 to $0.18, and adjusted EBITDA declined $163 million to $158 million. POS for the quarter was up mid-single digits and up in all 4 regions. Mattel outpaced the industry and gained market share in the fourth quarter per NPD. Putting it in historical context, this was Mattel's highest fourth quarter POS in 8 years.

查看第四季度與去年同期相比的主要財務指標。淨銷售額下降 22%，按固定匯率計算下降 19%。調整後營業收入下降 1.85 億美元至 7900 萬美元。調整後每股收益下降 0.35 美元至 0.18 美元，調整後 EBITDA 下降 1.63 億美元至 1.58 億美元。本季度的 POS 增長了中個位數，並且在所有 4 個地區都有所增長。根據 NPD，美泰在第四季度超越了行業並獲得了市場份額。放在歷史背景下，這是 Mattel 8 年來最高的第四季度 POS。

Looking at key financial metrics for the full year as compared to the prior year. Net sales were flat or up 3% in constant currency, with growth in gross billings in all 4 regions. Adjusted operating income declined 10% to $689 million. Adjusted earnings per share declined 4% to $1.25. Adjusted EBITDA declined by 4% to $968 million. And leverage ratio improved to 2.4x compared to 2.6x a year ago. POS for the year grew low single digits and was up in all 4 regions. This was the highest full year POS in 9 years and second highest on record.

查看與上一年相比全年的關鍵財務指標。淨銷售額持平或按固定匯率計算增長 3%，所有 4 個地區的總銷售額均有所增長。調整後營業收入下降 10% 至 6.89 億美元。調整後每股收益下降 4% 至 1.25 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 下降 4% 至 9.68 億美元。槓桿率從一年前的 2.6 倍提高到 2.4 倍。這一年的 POS 增長低個位數，並且在所有 4 個地區都有所增長。這是 9 年來最高的全年 POS，也是有記錄以來的第二高。

Comparing 2022 results to 2019, before the pandemic, net sales in constant currency were up more than 20% and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled. The toy industry continued to show its resilience despite macroeconomic challenges. Per NPD, following 2 years of double-digit growth and a record year in 2021, the toy industry finished flat compared to the prior year and up 22% compared to 2019, prior to the pandemic. We believe the toy industry is a growth industry, and we expect it will continue to grow over time. That said, given continuing macroeconomic headwinds and market volatility that may impact consumer demand, we expect the industry to be flat to slightly up in 2023.

將 2022 年的業績與 2019 年的業績進行比較，在大流行之前，按固定匯率計算的淨銷售額增長了 20% 以上，調整後的 EBITDA 增長了一倍多。儘管面臨宏觀經濟挑戰，玩具行業繼續展現其韌性。根據 NPD，在經歷了兩年的兩位數增長和創紀錄的 2021 年之後，玩具行業與上一年相比持平，與大流行之前的 2019 年相比增長了 22%。我們相信玩具行業是一個成長型行業，我們預計它將隨著時間的推移繼續增長。也就是說，鑑於可能影響消費者需求的持續宏觀經濟逆風和市場波動，我們預計該行業在 2023 年將持平至小幅增長。

Looking at gross billings in constant currency by category. In the fourth quarter, Dolls, Infant, Toddler, and Preschool, or ITPS, and our Challenger categories in aggregate were down significantly as retailers reduced replenishment orders. Vehicles was up strongly. POS significantly outpaced gross billings and was positive for Dolls, Vehicles and Challenger categories and flat for ITPS. For the full year, Vehicles and Challenger categories gross billings grew meaningfully, while Dolls and ITPS declined. POS for Vehicles and Challenger grew low double digits, while for Dolls and ITPS, POS declined low single digits. Per NPD, Mattel was the #1 toy company in the U.S. overall and #1 globally in our leader categories, Dolls, Vehicles and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool, for both the fourth quarter and full year.

按類別查看以固定貨幣計的總賬單。在第四季度，由於零售商減少了補貨訂單，娃娃、嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童或 ITPS 以及我們的挑戰者類別的總量大幅下降。車輛強勁上漲。 POS 明顯超過總賬單，並且對玩偶、車輛和挑戰者類別有利，對 ITPS 持平。全年來看，車輛和挑戰者類別的總收入增長顯著，而玩偶和 ITPS 則有所下降。 Vehicles 和 Challenger 的 POS 增長低兩位數，而 Dolls 和 ITPS 的 POS 下降低個位數。根據 NPD，美泰第四季度和全年在我們的領導類別玩偶、車輛和嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童玩具公司中排名第一，在全球排名第一。

As it relates to our power brands. Barbie and Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends were down significantly as retailers reduced replenishment orders. Hot Wheels was up strongly. POS for each of our power brands significantly outpaced gross billings for the quarter. For the full year, Barbie was down following 2 years of double-digit growth, including the highest year on record. We are very confident about Barbie's strength and continued long-term growth. Hot Wheels performed extremely well and achieved its fifth consecutive record year. Fisher-Price and Thomas declined. Hot Wheels' POS was up low double digits, while Barbie and Fisher-Price and Thomas' POS were down low single digits. Per NPD, for both the fourth quarter and full year, Barbie, Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price were each the #1 global property in their respective categories, and Barbie was the #2 global property overall.

因為它與我們的強大品牌有關。由於零售商減少了補貨訂單，Barbie and Fisher-Price 和 Thomas & Friends 的銷售額大幅下降。風火輪強勁上漲。我們每個強大品牌的 POS 都大大超過了本季度的總賬單。全年來看，芭比娃娃在經歷了 2 年的兩位數增長（包括有記錄以來的最高年份）後出現下滑。我們對芭比娃娃的實力和持續的長期增長充滿信心。 Hot Wheels 表現非常出色，連續第五年創下紀錄。 Fisher-Price 和 Thomas 拒絕了。 Hot Wheels 的銷量增長了兩位數，而芭比娃娃和費雪牌以及 Thomas 的銷量則下降了個位數。根據 NPD，在第四季度和全年，芭比娃娃、風火輪和 Fisher-Price 都是各自類別中排名第一的全球財產，芭比娃娃是全球排名第二的財產。

Looking at our multiyear performance, we have been successfully executing our strategy to grow Mattel's IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering. Our portfolio is well balanced by category, genre, target demographics and retail channel. Inherently, there will be puts and takes by individual brand varying by quarter and by year. But our business model leverages our global assets and capabilities and allows us to scale our portfolio as a whole.

縱觀我們多年來的表現，我們一直在成功執行我們的戰略，以發展 Mattel 的 IP 驅動玩具業務並擴展我們的娛樂產品。我們的產品組合在類別、類型、目標人群和零售渠道方面得到了很好的平衡。本質上，各個品牌的賣出和賣出將隨季度和年份而變化。但我們的商業模式利用了我們的全球資產和能力，使我們能夠將我們的投資組合作為一個整體進行擴展。

While the fourth quarter was below our expectations, the full year results tell a more complete story in the context of our multiyear growth trajectory. Notably, quality of results were heavily skewed by the volatility and timing of retail inventory movement throughout the year, not by the underlying marketplace performance of our business, with growth in POS for both the fourth quarter and the year.

雖然第四季度低於我們的預期，但全年業績在我們多年增長軌蹟的背景下講述了一個更完整的故事。值得注意的是，結果質量受到全年零售庫存變動的波動性和時間的嚴重影響，而不是我們業務的潛在市場表現，第四季度和全年的 POS 增長。

2022 was another year where we made meaningful progress on key priorities. Here are just a few highlights. We expanded Hot Wheels to new categories such as remote control and skate. We revitalized and relaunched Monster High, which was the #1 relaunch property within Dolls in the U.S. in the fourth quarter. We continued to strengthen our relationships with the major entertainment companies with additions or extensions of key licenses, including Disney Princess and Disney Frozen, Pokemon and Universal's Trolls.

2022 年又是我們在關鍵優先事項上取得有意義進展的一年。這裡只是一些亮點。我們將 Hot Wheels 擴展到新的類別，例如遙控和滑板。我們振興並重新推出了 Monster High，這是第四季度在美國娃娃中排名第一的重新推出財產。我們通過增加或延長關鍵許可，繼續加強與主要娛樂公司的關係，包括迪士尼公主和迪士尼冰雪奇緣、口袋妖怪和環球影業的魔發精靈。

We have grown Mattel Creations, our collector D2C business, which is capitalizing on the strength of our franchises and built-in fan base, increasing traffic by over 40% and volume by over 85%. We achieved $106 million of cost savings in 2022 from our Optimizing for Growth program, and increased the targeted 2023 cost savings goal to $300 million from $250 million.

我們已經發展了 Mattel Creations，這是我們的收藏家 D2C 業務，它利用我們的特許經營權和內置粉絲群的優勢，將流量增加了 40% 以上，銷量增加了 85% 以上。我們通過優化增長計劃在 2022 年實現了 1.06 億美元的成本節約，並將 2023 年的成本節約目標從 2.5 億美元提高到 3 億美元。

We also made meaningful progress on capturing the full value of our IP. We partnered with Skydance Media to develop a Matchbox live action motion picture as part of our growing development slate and announced that J.J. Abrams' Bad Robot will produce the Hot Wheels movie with Warner Bros. The Barbie movie completed principal photography and is in post production towards its global theatrical release this summer.

我們還在獲取知識產權的全部價值方面取得了有意義的進展。我們與 Skydance Media 合作開發了火柴盒真人電影作為我們不斷增長的開發計劃的一部分，並宣布 J.J. Abrams 的 Bad Robot 將與華納兄弟一起製作風火輪電影。這部芭比娃娃電影已完成主要攝影工作，並正在進行後期製作，準備在今年夏天在全球上映。

On the television side, we launched 11 series and specials, including our first live action movie musical, Monster High, which premiered on Nickelodeon and Paramount+. The Mattel Adventure Park is under construction and is expected to open in the fourth quarter of 2023. And the Mattel163 mobile gaming joint venture with NetEase grew to over $175 million in revenue.

在電視方面，我們推出了 11 個系列和特別節目，包括我們的第一部真人電影音樂劇 Monster High，它在 Nickelodeon 和 Paramount+ 上首映。美泰冒險樂園正在建設中，預計將於 2023 年第四季度開放。與網易的 Mattel163 移動遊戲合資企業的收入增長到超過 1.75 億美元。

As we look ahead to 2023, we continue to foresee a period of volatility and macroeconomic challenges impacting consumer demand. Additionally, there are 2 significant factors that will impact our 2023 performance. These are elevated retailer inventory levels, which will have a onetime negative impact on our top line; and incentive compensation returning to target levels, which will increase SG&A.

展望 2023 年，我們將繼續預見一段時期的波動和影響消費者需求的宏觀經濟挑戰。此外，還有 2 個重要因素會影響我們 2023 年的業績。這些是零售商庫存水平升高，這將對我們的收入產生一次性的負面影響；激勵薪酬回到目標水平，這將增加 SG&A。

With that context, in 2023, we expect Mattel's full year net sales in constant currency to be comparable to 2022 and for adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $900 million to $950 million. Our guidance assumes growth in consumer demand for our product and positive POS for the year. We aim to outpace the toy industry and gain market share. Beyond 2023, we believe our strategy will drive top and bottom line growth.

在此背景下，我們預計美泰在 2023 年的全年淨銷售額（按固定匯率計算）將與 2022 年相當，調整後的 EBITDA 將在 9 億至 9.5 億美元之間。我們的指導假設消費者對我們產品的需求增長，並且今年的 POS 積極。我們的目標是超越玩具行業並獲得市場份額。 2023 年以後，我們相信我們的戰略將推動收入和利潤增長。

In closing, while the fourth quarter was below expectations, the full year growth in constant currency and increase in consumer demand for our product speak to the strength of our portfolio as a whole, even in a challenging macroeconomic environment. We believe we are well positioned to continue executing our multiyear strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering and create long-term shareholder value. Reflecting our improved financial position and confidence in our strategy, we expect to resume share repurchases in 2023.

最後，雖然第四季度低於預期，但即使在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中，以固定匯率計算的全年增長和消費者對我們產品需求的增加也說明了我們整個產品組合的實力。我們相信我們有能力繼續執行我們的多年戰略，以發展我們的知識產權驅動的玩具業務並擴大我們的娛樂產品並創造長期股東價值。為反映我們改善的財務狀況和對我們戰略的信心，我們預計將在 2023 年恢復股票回購。

We are committed to Mattel's purpose to empower the next generation to explore the wonder of childhood and reach their full potential, and to our mission to create innovative products and experiences that inspire, entertain and develop children through play. We look forward to updating you on the progress of our strategy at our upcoming virtual investor presentation.

我們致力於實現 Mattel 的目標，讓下一代能夠探索童年的奇蹟並充分發揮他們的潛力，並致力於創造創新的產品和體驗，通過遊戲激發、娛樂和發展兒童。我們期待在即將舉行的虛擬投資者演示會上向您通報我們戰略的最新進展。

And now Anthony will cover the financials in more detail.

現在安東尼將更詳細地介紹財務狀況。

Thanks, Ynon. As Ynon mentioned, Mattel's fourth quarter performance was below expectations. I will start with a discussion of those items which negatively impacted our performance relative to guidance.

謝謝，伊農。正如 Ynon 所說，美泰第四季度的業績低於預期。我將首先討論那些對我們相對於指導的表現產生負面影響的項目。

Our consumer takeaway or POS was below expectations as the macroeconomic environment proved more challenging than anticipated. Retailers reduced replenishment orders more than we anticipated, and we incurred higher costs to manage our inventories, including closeout sales as well as the negative fixed cost absorption impact from lower sales in the fourth quarter. With the shortfall to expectations, we significantly reduced incentive compensation, which mitigated the earnings impact in 2022.

由於宏觀經濟環境比預期更具挑戰性，我們的消費者外賣或 POS 低於預期。零售商減少補貨訂單的幅度超出了我們的預期，我們的庫存管理成本增加，包括清倉銷售以及第四季度銷售額下降對吸收固定成本的負面影響。由於不及預期，我們大幅減少了激勵薪酬，從而減輕了 2022 年的盈利影響。

With that context, while POS increased by mid-single digits in the fourth quarter, net sales were $1.402 billion, down 22% compared to the prior year or down 19% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin declined by 620 basis points, reflecting the impact of managing inventory levels and cost inflation. Adjusted operating income declined by $185 million to $79 million, adjusted EPS declined by $0.35 to $0.18, and adjusted EBITDA declined by $163 million to $158 million.

在此背景下，雖然第四季度 POS 增長了中等個位數，但淨銷售額為 14.02 億美元，與去年同期相比下降 22%，按固定匯率計算下降 19%。調整後的毛利率下降了 620 個基點，反映了管理庫存水平和成本通脹的影響。調整後營業收入下降 1.85 億美元至 7900 萬美元，調整後每股收益下降 0.35 美元至 0.18 美元，調整後 EBITDA 下降 1.63 億美元至 1.58 億美元。

Looking at our full year results. Net sales were flat as reported or up 3% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin declined 230 basis points to 45.9% due primarily to cost inflation, higher cost of managing inventories and increased royalties, partly offset by price increases and cost savings. Adjusted operating income was $689 million compared to $763 million in the prior year, while adjusted EPS declined by $0.05 to $1.25. Adjusted EBITDA declined by $39 million or 4% to $968 million, primarily due to the lower adjusted gross margin, partly offset by lower adjusted SG&A.

看看我們的全年業績。淨銷售額與報告持平或按固定匯率計算增長 3%。調整後的毛利率下降 230 個基點至 45.9%，這主要是由於成本上漲、庫存管理成本增加和特許權使用費增加，部分被價格上漲和成本節約所抵消。調整後營業收入為 6.89 億美元，上年同期為 7.63 億美元，而調整後每股收益下降 0.05 美元至 1.25 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 下降 3900 萬美元或 4% 至 9.68 億美元，這主要是由於調整後的毛利率較低，部分被調整後的 SG&A 較低所抵消。

Turning to gross billings in constant currency, beginning with the fourth quarter. As we've discussed on prior calls, first half gross billings outpaced POS as retailers were replenishing lower inventory exiting the prior year and building inventory levels ahead of the holiday season. We expected this to reverse in the third quarter and accelerate in the fourth quarter, with POS outpacing gross billings.

從第四季度開始，轉向以固定匯率計算的總賬單。正如我們在之前的電話會議上所討論的那樣，由於零售商補充了去年較低的庫存並在假期前建立了庫存水平，上半年的總賬單超過了 POS。我們預計這種情況將在第三季度逆轉並在第四季度加速，POS 的增長速度將超過總賬單。

Although POS did improve and outpaced shipping in the fourth quarter, consumer demand was lower and came later than expected. This caused retailers to reduce replenishment orders throughout the quarter, which impacted our performance across categories and regions. With that context, while POS increased by mid-single digits in the quarter, total company gross billings declined 19%.

儘管 POS 確實在第四季度有所改善並超過了出貨量，但消費者需求較低且晚於預期。這導致零售商在整個季度減少補貨訂單，從而影響了我們在各個類別和地區的表現。在此背景下，雖然 POS 在本季度增長了中等個位數，但公司總營業額下降了 19%。

Looking at gross billings in the fourth quarter by category. Dolls was down 24% with declines in Barbie and American Girl, partly offset by growth in Monster High and early shipments of Disney Princess and Disney Frozen. Barbie gross billings declined 30% with POS down 1%. Barbie outpaced the industry in the fourth quarter and gained global market share per NPD. Vehicles grew 10%, driven by double-digit growth in Hot Wheels and the successful launches of remote control and skate. Infant, Toddler, and Preschool declined 31%, while POS was flat. Mattel was #1 globally in the infant/toddler/preschool category and gained share in the quarter per NPD.

按類別查看第四季度的總賬單。洋娃娃下降了 24%，芭比娃娃和美國女孩的下降部分被 Monster High 的增長以及迪士尼公主和迪士尼冰雪奇緣的早期出貨量所抵消。芭比娃娃的總收入下降了 30%，銷售量下降了 1%。芭比娃娃在第四季度超越了整個行業，並獲得了每新產品開發日的全球市場份額。受 Hot Wheels 兩位數增長以及遙控和滑板的成功推出的推動，車輛增長了 10%。嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童下降了 31%，而 POS 持平。 Mattel 在嬰兒/學步兒童/學齡前兒童類別中排名全球第一，並在每個 NPD 中增加了該季度的份額。

Challenger categories in aggregate declined 22% due to lower sales of Action Figures, Games and Plush. Building sets was comparable to the prior year. For the full year, total company gross billings grew 3%, with POS increasing low single digits. Dolls was down 6% due to declines in Barbie, American Girl and Spirit, partly offset by growth in Monster High, early shipments on Disney Princess and Disney Frozen, and strength in Polly Pocket.

由於可動人偶、遊戲和毛絨玩具的銷量下降，挑戰者類別的總銷量下降了 22%。積木套裝與前一年相當。全年，公司總營業額增長 3%，POS 增長低個位數。由於芭比娃娃、美國女孩和精神的下降，玩偶下降了 6%，部分被 Monster High 的增長、迪士尼公主和迪士尼冰雪奇緣的早期出貨量以及 Polly Pocket 的強勁所抵消。

As discussed last quarter, sales of higher-priced items have been negatively impacted by macroeconomic challenges facing consumers. Barbie was down 8% following 2 years of double-digit growth. American Girl declined 16%, primarily due to soft performance for 2022's Girl of the Year and historical characters. Vehicles grew 20%, driven by Hot Wheels and Matchbox. Hot Wheels grew 22%, driven by core die cast cars, Monster Trucks and category expansion. Infant, Toddler, and Preschool was down 6% due to declines in baby gear and infant, partly offset by growth in Imaginext and Little People. Mattel outperformed the industry and gained global share for the full year per NPD.

正如上個季度所討論的那樣，高價商品的銷售受到了消費者面臨的宏觀經濟挑戰的負面影響。芭比娃娃在經歷了 2 年的兩位數增長後下跌了 8%。美國女孩下降了 16%，這主要是由於 2022 年的年度女孩和歷史人物表現不佳。在 Hot Wheels 和 Matchbox 的推動下，車輛增長了 20%。在核心壓鑄汽車、怪獸卡車和品類擴張的推動下，風火輪增長了 22%。由於嬰兒用品和嬰幼兒的下降，嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童下降了 6%，部分被 Imaginext 和 Little People 的增長所抵消。根據 NPD，美泰全年表現優於行業並獲得全球份額。

Challenger categories increased 10% overall, with gains in Action Figures and Building Sets, partly offset by declines in Plush and Games. As Ynon mentioned, quarterly results were heavily skewed by the volatility and timing of retailer inventory movement throughout the year, not by the underlying marketplace performance of our business, with growth in POS for both the fourth quarter and year.

挑戰者類別總體增長 10%，可動人偶和積木套裝的增長部分被毛絨玩具和遊戲的下降所抵消。正如 Ynon 所提到的，季度業績受到全年零售商庫存變動的波動性和時間的嚴重影響，而不是我們業務的潛在市場表現，第四季度和全年的 POS 增長。

Looking at fourth quarter gross billings in constant currency by region. North America declined 25% while POS increased mid-single digits. EMEA declined 16% and POS increased mid-single digits. Latin America declined 8% with POS up low single digits. And Asia Pacific declined 5% with POS increasing high single digits. Ending retailer inventory levels were up in both dollars and weeks of supply compared to low levels a year ago and are elevated as we head into 2023. Retail inventory is predominantly current and of good quality.

按地區查看以固定匯率計算的第四季度總賬單。北美下降了 25%，而 POS 增長了中個位數。 EMEA 下降了 16%，而 POS 增長了中個位數。拉丁美洲下降了 8%，POS 增長低個位數。亞太地區下降了 5%，而 POS 以高個位數增長。與一年前的低水平相比，以美元和供應週數計算的期末零售商庫存水平均有所上升，並且隨著我們進入 2023 年而有所上升。零售庫存主要是最新的並且質量很好。

For the full year, gross billings and POS grew in each of our 4 regions. North America gross billings grew 1% with POS up low single digits. EMEA increased 5% with gains in all key markets. POS increased high single digits. Latin America increased 14%, with strong growth in Mexico and Brazil. POS increased low single digits. Asia Pacific sales grew 1% with gains in Australia and Japan, offset by the impact of COVID-related closures in China. POS increased mid-single digits. Per NPD, Mattel was #1 in the U.S. for the 29th consecutive year, #2 in EMEA and #1 in Latin America.

全年，我們 4 個地區的總賬單和 POS 均有所增長。北美總賬單增長 1%，POS 增長低個位數。歐洲、中東和非洲地區增長 5%，所有主要市場均有所增長。 POS增加高個位數。拉丁美洲增長 14%，墨西哥和巴西增長強勁。 POS 增加低個位數。亞太地區的銷售額增長了 1%，其中澳大利亞和日本的銷售額有所增長，但被中國因 COVID 相關的關閉所帶來的影響所抵消。 POS 增加了中個位數。根據 NPD，美泰連續 29 年在美國排名第一，在歐洲、中東和非洲排名第二，在拉丁美洲排名第一。

Adjusted gross margin declined 620 basis points to 43.1% in the quarter. The decline was due to several factors: inventory management, primarily closeout sales and obsolescence of 350 basis points; cost inflation of 330 basis points; fixed cost absorption of 180 basis points associated with lower volume; and increased royalties and other of 140 basis points. These negative factors were partly offset by price increases, which contributed 220 basis points, and savings from our Optimizing for Growth program, which had a positive impact of 170 basis points. For the full year, adjusted gross margin declined 230 basis points to 45.9%.

本季度調整後的毛利率下降 620 個基點至 43.1%。下降的原因有幾個：庫存管理，主要是清倉銷售和 350 個基點的過時；成本通脹 330 個基點；與銷量下降相關的 180 個基點的固定成本吸收；並增加了特許權使用費和其他 140 個基點。這些負面因素部分被價格上漲所抵消，價格上漲貢獻了 220 個基點，我們的優化增長計劃帶來的節省產生了 170 個基點的積極影響。全年，調整後的毛利率下降 230 個基點至 45.9%。

Moving down the P&L. In the fourth quarter, advertising expenses declined 9% to $243 million as we reduced advertising in response to lower volume. For the full year, advertising expense declined 2%, and as a percentage of net sales declined 20 basis points to 9.8%. Adjusted SG&A in the fourth quarter declined $73 million or 21% to $282 million. The decline was primarily due to significantly reduced incentive compensation as well as cost savings, partly offset by increases in compensation and bad debt expense.

向下移動損益表。第四季度，廣告費用下降 9% 至 2.43 億美元，因為我們減少了廣告以應對較低的銷量。全年，廣告費用下降 2%，占淨銷售額的百分比下降 20 個基點至 9.8%。第四季度調整後的 SG&A 下降 7300 萬美元或 21% 至 2.82 億美元。下降的主要原因是激勵薪酬大幅減少以及成本節約，部分被薪酬和壞賬費用的增加所抵消。

Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was $79 million compared to $264 million a year ago. The decline was due to lower sales and adjusted gross margin, partly offset by lower advertising and adjusted SG&A. Adjusted EBITDA declined by $163 million to $158 million, impacted by the same factors. Cash from operations for the full year was $443 million compared to $485 million in the prior year. The decline was primarily due to higher working capital usage, partly offset by improvements in net income, excluding the impact of noncash items.

第四季度調整後營業收入為 7900 萬美元，而去年同期為 2.64 億美元。下降的原因是銷售額下降和調整後的毛利率下降，部分被較低的廣告和調整後的 SG&A 所抵消。受相同因素影響，調整後的 EBITDA 下降 1.63 億美元至 1.58 億美元。全年運營現金為 4.43 億美元，上年為 4.85 億美元。下降的主要原因是較高的營運資金使用，部分被淨收入的改善所抵消，不包括非現金項目的影響。

Free cash flow was $256 million compared to $334 million in the prior year. The decline was due to lower cash from operations and increased capital expenditures. Capital expenditures increased by $35 million to $187 million, reflecting investments to increase production capacity in fashion dolls and die cast cars to support future growth. As a percentage of adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow conversion was 26% compared to 33% in the prior year.

自由現金流為 2.56 億美元，上年同期為 3.34 億美元。下降的原因是運營現金減少和資本支出增加。資本支出增加了 3500 萬美元，達到 1.87 億美元，反映了為提高時尚玩偶和壓鑄汽車的產能以支持未來增長而進行的投資。作為調整後 EBITDA 的百分比，自由現金流轉換為 26%，而去年為 33%。

Taking a look at the balance sheet. We finished the year with a cash balance of $761 million compared to $731 million in the prior year as free cash flow was primarily used to reduce debt. In the fourth quarter, we redeemed the $250 million 3.15% notes due 2023. Total debt was $2.326 billion compared to $2.571 billion in the prior year, a reduction of $245 million. Accounts receivable declined by $212 million to $860 million, primarily due to the decline in fourth quarter net sales.

看看資產負債表。我們以 7.61 億美元的現金餘額結束了這一年，而上一年為 7.31 億美元，因為自由現金流主要用於減少債務。第四季度，我們贖回了 2.5 億美元、利率為 3.15%、2023 年到期的票據。債務總額為 23.26 億美元，而去年同期為 25.71 億美元，減少了 2.45 億美元。應收賬款減少 2.12 億美元至 8.6 億美元，主要原因是第四季度淨銷售額下降。

Inventory was $894 million compared to $777 million in the prior year, an increase of $117 million or 15%. Leverage ratio improved to 2.4x at the end of the year compared to 2.6x in the prior year. We continued to improve our credit metrics as highlighted by the recent action by Moody's Investor Services to upgrade our credit rating to investment grade.

庫存為 8.94 億美元，上年同期為 7.77 億美元，增加 1.17 億美元或 15%。槓桿率從上一年的 2.6 倍提高到年底的 2.4 倍。我們繼續改善我們的信用指標，穆迪投資者服務公司最近將我們的信用評級升級為投資級別的行動凸顯了這一點。

We continued to generate significant cost savings. Optimizing for gross savings were $39 million in the quarter and $106 million for the full year, exceeding our prior forecast of $80 million to $90 million. Since 2021, when we launched the program, we have achieved $204 million of annualized savings. Based on our progress and continued focus on optimizing our operations, including actions to further streamline our organizational structure, we are increasing the targeted 2023 cost saving goal to $300 million from $250 million. Total estimated cash expenditures to implement the program are now forecasted to be $135 million to $165 million.

我們繼續產生顯著的成本節約。本季度的優化總節省額為 3900 萬美元，全年節省額為 1.06 億美元，超過了我們之前預測的 8000 萬至 9000 萬美元。自 2021 年啟動該計劃以來，我們已實現每年 2.04 億美元的節省。基於我們的進展和對優化運營的持續關注，包括進一步精簡組織結構的行動，我們將 2023 年的成本節約目標從 2.5 億美元提高到 3 億美元。現在預計實施該計劃的現金支出總額預計為 1.35 億美元至 1.65 億美元。

As Ynon said, looking ahead to 2023, we continue to foresee a period of volatility and macroeconomic challenges impacting the consumer. Additionally, there are 2 significant factors that will impact our 2023 performance. Anticipated retail inventory reductions will have a onetime negative impact of 3 to 4 percentage points on our top line, particularly in the first half, and incentive compensation returning to target levels will increase SG&A by approximately $100 million.

正如 Ynon 所說，展望 2023 年，我們將繼續預見一段影響消費者的波動和宏觀經濟挑戰。此外，還有 2 個重要因素會影響我們 2023 年的業績。預期的零售庫存減少將對我們的收入產生 3 到 4 個百分點的負面影響，尤其是在上半年，而回到目標水平的激勵補償將使 SG&A 增加約 1 億美元。

With that context, we expect full year net sales in constant currency to be comparable to the prior year, with growth in the Dolls and Vehicles categories offset by declines in Infant, Toddler, and Preschool and in our Challenger categories in aggregate, primarily due to Action Figures as we lap theatrical tie-ins in 2022. Our guidance assumes growth in consumer demand for our product with positive POS performance for the year.

在此背景下，我們預計按固定匯率計算的全年淨銷售額將與上一年相當，玩偶和車輛類別的增長被嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童以及挑戰者類別的總體下降所抵消，這主要是由於我們在 2022 年與劇院搭檔時的動作人物。我們的指導假設消費者對我們產品的需求增長，並且今年的 POS 表現良好。

With respect to the power brands, we expect Barbie and Hot Wheels to grow and for Fisher-Price to decline. Going forward, the Fisher-Price power brand will exclude Thomas & Friends, allowing greater clarity on the brand's performance. In connection with the Barbie movie, and as part of our capital-light approach, 2023 guidance includes movie-specific toy sales, a producer fee, and estimated participation in the movie's success for licensing the IP.

關於強勢品牌，我們預計芭比娃娃和風火輪會增長，而費雪牌會下降。展望未來，Fisher-Price 的強力品牌將排除 Thomas & Friends，從而使該品牌的表現更加清晰。關於芭比娃娃電影，作為我們輕資本方法的一部分，2023 年指導包括電影特定的玩具銷售、製作人費用以及預計參與電影成功獲得 IP 許可。

Foreign currency translation is expected to have a slightly positive impact on our top line performance based on current spot rates. Adjusted gross margin is expected to increase to approximately 47% compared to 45.9% in 2022. This reflects the anticipated benefit from pricing and cost savings, partly offset by cost inflation and fixed cost absorption associated with lower production volumes. With respect to timing, we expect the gross margin improvement in the second half.

根據當前的即期匯率，外幣換算預計會對我們的收入表現產生輕微的積極影響。調整後的毛利率預計將從 2022 年的 45.9% 增加至約 47%。這反映了定價和成本節約帶來的預期收益，部分被成本膨脹和與產量下降相關的固定成本吸收所抵消。在時間方面，我們預計下半年毛利率將有所改善。

In the middle of the P&L, we expect SG&A to increase as incentive compensation is forecast to return to target levels, while advertising is expected to remain relatively stable as a percent of net sales. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $950 million. And adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.10 to $1.20 per share.

在 P&L 中期，我們預計 SG&A 將增加，因為激勵薪酬預計將恢復到目標水平，而廣告占淨銷售額的百分比預計將保持相對穩定。調整後的 EBITDA 預計在 9 億至 9.5 億美元之間。調整後每股收益預計在 1.10 美元至 1.20 美元之間。

Interest expense in 2023 is expected to benefit from the redemption of the $250 million 3.15% notes at the end of 2022, and the adjusted tax rate is forecasted to be approximately 25% to 26% compared to 24% in 2022. Capital expenditures are forecast to be in the range of $175 million to $200 million compared to $187 million in 2022. Anticipated spending in 2023 includes continuing spend to increase capacity of fashion dolls and die cast cars supporting future growth as previously announced.

預計 2023 年的利息支出將受益於 2.5 億美元 3.15% 票據在 2022 年底的贖回，調整後的稅率預計約為 25% 至 26%，而 2022 年為 24%。資本支出預計將在 1.75 億美元至 2 億美元之間，而 2022 年為 1.87 億美元。2023 年的預期支出包括繼續支出以增加時尚娃娃和壓鑄汽車的產能，以支持先前宣布的未來增長。

Free cash flow in 2023 is expected to exceed $400 million, driven by a higher conversion ratio as we improve our working capital performance. In terms of phasing, sales and earnings are expected to be down significantly in the first half as we wrap 20% top line growth last year and further reflecting anticipated retail inventory reductions in 2023. This is expected to be followed by top and bottom line growth in the second half.

2023 年的自由現金流預計將超過 4 億美元，這是由於我們提高了營運資本績效，從而提高了轉換率。就階段性而言，預計上半年銷售額和收益將大幅下降，因為我們去年實現了 20% 的收入增長，並進一步反映了 2023 年預期的零售庫存減少。預計收入和利潤將隨之增長在下半場。

We are operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment with higher volatility, including inflation that may impact consumer demand. The guidance considers what the company is aware of today but remains subject to further market volatility, any unexpected disruption and other macroeconomic risks and uncertainties.

我們在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中運營，波動性更高，包括可能影響消費者需求的通貨膨脹。該指南考慮了公司目前所了解的情況，但仍會受到進一步市場波動、任何意外中斷以及其他宏觀經濟風險和不確定性的影響。

With our improved balance sheet and outlook for increased free cash flow, we expect to resume share repurchases in 2023, with approximately $200 million remaining under the company's current authorization. This action is consistent with our capital allocation priorities and reflects confidence in our strategy to create significant long-term shareholder value.

隨著我們資產負債表的改善和自由現金流增加的前景，我們預計將在 2023 年恢復股票回購，公司目前的授權剩餘約 2 億美元。此舉符合我們的資本分配優先事項，反映了我們對創造重大長期股東價值的戰略的信心。

While Mattel's fourth quarter was below expectations, we outpaced the industry and gained market share. In 2022, we continued to improve our financial position, further reduced our debt and achieved an investment-grade rating from Moody's, 1 of the 3 major ratings agencies. We look forward to sharing more information on our financial outlook and capital deployment priorities at our upcoming virtual investor presentation.

雖然 Mattel 的第四季度低於預期，但我們超越了行業並獲得了市場份額。 2022年，我們財務狀況持續改善，債務進一步減少，獲得三大評級機構之一的穆迪投資級評級。我們期待在即將舉行的虛擬投資者演示會上分享更多關於我們的財務前景和資本部署優先事項的信息。

Thanks for your time today, and I will now turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

感謝您今天的時間，我現在將其轉交給運營商進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Eric Handler of Roth MKM.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Roth MKM 的 Eric Handler。

Anthony, I wonder if you could give just a little perspective on inventories at retail. Like specifically, how far below normalized levels are retail inventories? And do you get a sense of how willing they are at this point to get back to normalized levels at some point during the year? And then I've got a follow-up.

安東尼，我想知道你是否可以就零售庫存給出一點看法。具體來說，零售庫存比正常水平低多少？您是否了解他們此時在一年中的某個時候恢復正常水平的意願如何？然後我有一個後續行動。

Sure. So let me comment on the retail inventory situation. As we look at quarter end retailer inventory levels, they are actually up in both dollars and weeks of supply, and that's comparing to a low level coming into 2022. And I will also say that those inventory levels at year-end are elevated as we head into 2023 and also that they are predominantly current and of good quality.

當然。因此，讓我評論一下零售庫存情況。當我們查看季度末零售商庫存水平時，它們實際上以美元和供應週數計算都在上升，這與進入 2022 年的低水平相比。我還要說的是，年底的庫存水平隨著我們的提高而上升進入 2023 年，它們主要是最新的且質量上乘。

And the issue is, and this is in our 2023 guidance, is we expect retailers globally to reduce inventory levels in 2023. And that's forecasted to have a negative impact on our sales of approximately 3 to 4 percentage points. And again, that's what we've reflected in our guidance, and most of this issue will occur in the first half of 2023.

問題是，在我們的 2023 年指南中，我們預計全球零售商將在 2023 年降低庫存水平。預計這將對我們的銷售額產生大約 3 到 4 個百分點的負面影響。再一次，這就是我們在指南中反映的內容，這個問題的大部分將發生在 2023 年上半年。

Got it. And then it was good to see that Hot Wheels was up and pretty strong in the fourth quarter. I know you've added remote control and skate, but I'm curious, given that they've got relatively low price points, was that just a sweet spot for consumers given that impact?

知道了。然後很高興看到 Hot Wheels 在第四季度表現強勁。我知道你已經添加了遙控和滑板，但我很好奇，鑑於它們的價格相對較低，考慮到這種影響，這是否只是消費者的最佳選擇？

Thank you for bringing up Hot Wheels. It was an incredible performance in 2022. The growth was really fueled by strong performance across the brand, but in particular, our die cast assortment. Hot Wheels Monster Truck segment performed exceptionally well. We also had incredibly exciting 2 new innovative launch segments. We are in the RC category as well as Hot Wheels Skate, which performed exceptionally well. This was also, for the full year, Hot Wheels achieved its fifth consecutive record-breaking year of gross billings.

感謝您提出 Hot Wheels。 2022 年的表現令人難以置信。整個品牌的強勁表現確實推動了增長，尤其是我們的壓鑄產品系列。 Hot Wheels Monster Truck 細分市場表現異常出色。我們還有令人難以置信的令人興奮的 2 個新的創新發布部分。我們和 Hot Wheels Skate 都屬於 RC 類別，後者表現非常出色。這也是 Hot Wheels 全年連續第五年打破總營業額記錄的年份。

Our basic car assortment remained the #1 best-selling toy in the world and Hot Wheels was the #1 vehicles property globally, and also, by the way, the #5 property across all toy categories. The momentum continues. We're incredibly confident in Hot Wheels' long-term trajectory, and we're really looking forward to sharing more with you at the virtual investor event.

我們的基本汽車系列仍然是世界上銷量第一的玩具，風火輪是全球銷量第一的汽車財產，順便說一句，也是所有玩具類別中排名第五的財產。勢頭還在繼續。我們對 Hot Wheels 的長期發展軌跡充滿信心，我們非常期待在虛擬投資者活動中與您分享更多信息。

Your next question comes from Megan Alexander of JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的梅根亞歷山大。

I want to spend a little bit of time on the POS expectation for '23. It seems like you're expecting POS up maybe in 3% to 4%, which is maybe a little bit better than '22. Yet you mentioned a volatile environment several times and the fact that retailers are reducing inventory levels. So maybe you can just help us understand what drives confidence in POS being better in '23 than '22 given these factors? And it clearly seems like we have a weaker consumer than last year.

我想花一點時間了解 23 年的 POS 預期。似乎您預計 POS 可能會增長 3% 到 4%，這可能比 22 年好一點。然而，您多次提到動蕩的環境以及零售商正在降低庫存水平的事實。因此，也許您可以幫助我們了解在考慮到這些因素的情況下，是什麼推動了 POS 在 23 年比 22 年更好的信心？很明顯，我們的消費者似乎比去年弱了。

Megan, yes, look, so the toy industry continued to show its resilience over the year despite the macro challenges. And after 2 years of double-digit growth and a record year in 2021, the toy industry was flat essentially in spite of the economy, but still up 22% relative to 2019 pre-pandemic. So we believe this speaks to the resilience and strength of the industry and that the toy industry is a growth industry and that will continue to grow over time.

梅根，是的，你看，儘管面臨宏觀挑戰，但玩具行業在過去一年中繼續表現出韌性。在經歷了兩年的兩位數增長和創紀錄的 2021 年之後，儘管經濟不景氣，玩具行業基本持平，但仍比 2019 年大流行前增長了 22%。因此，我們相信這說明了該行業的韌性和實力，玩具行業是一個成長型行業，並且會隨著時間的推移繼續增長。

Now what we also said is that given the continuing macro challenges, we do expect headwinds that may impact consumer spending and affect consumer demand. So we do expect the industry overall to be slight -- sorry, flat to slightly up in 2023. In this environment, we believe we will outperform the industry, achieve positive POS for Mattel. 2023 is off to a good start in terms of consumer demand for our product. It's still early, obviously, but we are seeing a good start. We have several key initiatives and drivers for the year on top of what we do that you're very familiar with, and all in all, feel confident about the composition of our portfolio. It's well balanced by category, by brand, by retail channel, by target demographic, and we feel well positioned heading into 2023.

現在我們還說，鑑於持續的宏觀挑戰，我們確實預計可能會影響消費者支出和消費者需求的逆風。因此，我們確實預計整個行業會略微——抱歉，到 2023 年會持平或略有上升。在這種環境下，我們相信我們將跑贏行業，為美泰實現積極的 POS。就消費者對我們產品的需求而言，2023 年是一個良好的開端。顯然，現在還早，但我們看到了一個良好的開端。除了我們所做的您非常熟悉的事情之外，我們今年還有幾項關鍵舉措和驅動因素，總而言之，您對我們的投資組合的構成充滿信心。它按類別、品牌、零售渠道、目標人群進行了很好的平衡，我們感覺在進入 2023 年時處於有利地位。

And then maybe a follow-up for Anthony. You mentioned the phasing of sales and EPS. It should be heavily -- growth heavily weighted to the second half. On that 3% to 4% impact to the top line, can you just help us understand maybe the magnitude of how much the first half should be down? If I'm doing the math correctly, that 3% to 4% is maybe a high single, low double-digit impact to the first half. So is that -- is it more heavily concentrated in 1Q because of where retail inventory levels are? And just any more help in terms of thinking about the phasing of how much the first half should be down.

然後也許是安東尼的後續行動。你提到了銷售和每股收益的分階段。它應該很重——下半年的增長很重要。關於對收入的 3% 到 4% 的影響，您能否幫助我們了解上半年應該下降多少的幅度？如果我算對了，那 3% 到 4% 對上半場的影響可能是個位數高，兩位數低。那是因為零售庫存水平高，它更集中在第一季度嗎？在考慮上半年應該下降多少的階段方面，還有更多幫助。

Sure. I think the way to look at it is 2 parts to it, and you have to think about the phasing in 2022, right? And I would say that our sales and earnings for 2023 are expected to be down significantly. Primarily in the first half, as we wrap 20% top line growth last year, recall our gross billings outpaced POS, so we won't have that. So that's going to be a reversal. And in addition to your point and further, reflecting the anticipated retail inventory reductions in 2023. So we kind of have a compounding effect in terms of what we're wrapping as well as what we're anticipating this year. And certainly, this will lead to growth in the second half, both top and bottom line.

當然。我認為看待它的方式分為兩部分，你必須考慮 2022 年的分階段，對嗎？我想說的是，我們 2023 年的銷售額和收益預計將大幅下降。主要是在上半年，當我們去年實現 20% 的收入增長時，回想一下我們的總賬單超過了 POS，所以我們不會那樣做。所以這將是一個逆轉。除了你的觀點之外，還反映了 2023 年預期的零售庫存減少。因此，就我們今年的包裝和預期而言，我們有點複合效應。當然，這將導致下半年收入和利潤的增長。

Your next question comes from Jason Haas of Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森哈斯。

The first one, I was just curious if you could help size up in any way how incremental Monster High and Disney Princess, Frozen could potentially be for you this year?

第一個，我只是想知道你是否可以幫助評估 Monster High 和 Disney Princess，Frozen 今年對你來說有多大潛力？

Well, on the Monster High front, first of all, we are very excited about the launch. It was one of the top performing launches this quarter, this past quarter, and we have full global rollout for the year. In connection with that, we've got incredible momentum on our content strategy as well with our partnership with Nickelodeon, new content that's going to be continuing to come out, inspiring and ultimately motivating additional purchases.

好吧，在 Monster High 方面，首先，我們對發布感到非常興奮。這是本季度、上個季度表現最好的發布之一，我們今年在全球範圍內全面推出。與此相關，我們的內容戰略以及與 Nickelodeon 的合作夥伴關係取得了令人難以置信的勢頭，新內容將繼續出現，激發並最終激發額外的購買。

We have a great history with the brand itself. Historically, it was one of the top fashion doll brands years ago when it launched. The relaunch itself was such a bright spot for our quarter. As mentioned, it's the #1 relaunch in the United States in 2022 per NPD, and this is being only on shelves for 2 months. The franchise strategy behind this involves comprehensive content, a musical movie with a live action series, was the #1 kids and family movie on Paramount, launched in 23 countries. We couldn't be more excited about the performance and, of course, with the global rollout.

我們與品牌本身有著悠久的歷史。從歷史上看，它在幾年前推出時是頂級時尚娃娃品牌之一。重新啟動本身就是我們季度的一個亮點。如前所述，根據 NPD，這是 2022 年在美國重新推出的排名第一的產品，並且僅上架 2 個月。這背後的特許經營策略涉及全面的內容，一部帶有真人動作系列的音樂電影，是派拉蒙在 23 個國家/地區推出的排名第一的兒童和家庭電影。我們對性能感到非常興奮，當然還有全球推出。

There's also, obviously, within our Doll portfolio an incredible lineup. The industry itself is calling it the year of the dolls. We've got, obviously, the leadership position with Barbie and our Barbie theatrical, the continued global rollout of Monster High and new Disney Princess, Frozen products. They've already started to hit shelves earlier this year. In addition to that, we also have Universal's Trolls.

顯然，在我們的玩偶產品組合中還有一個令人難以置信的陣容。業界本身稱它為玩偶年。顯然，我們在芭比娃娃和我們的芭比娃娃戲劇中佔據了領導地位，繼續在全球推出 Monster High 和新的 Disney Princess，Frozen 產品。他們已經在今年早些時候開始上架。除此之外，我們還有環球影業的巨魔。

So net-net, we couldn't be more excited about the portfolio that we have. We are the #1 doll category-driven business in the industry, and 2023 will be a very exciting year for us. And again, we will share a lot more detail at our virtual investor event.

所以 net-net，我們對我們擁有的投資組合感到非常興奮。我們是業內排名第一的玩偶類別驅動型企業，2023 年對我們來說將是非常激動人心的一年。同樣，我們將在我們的虛擬投資者活動中分享更多細節。

Great. That's great to hear. And then as a follow-up, maybe for Anthony, I know you mentioned that the expectation for gross margin would be that we should see an improvement through the year. If you could help dimensionalize that in any way. I'm curious to what extent we -- are we expecting to see more discounting in the first half of the year? Or can you just talk about what the puts and takes are on that cadence?

偉大的。聽到這個消息我很高興。然後作為後續行動，也許對安東尼來說，我知道你提到過毛利率的預期是我們應該看到全年有所改善。如果你能以任何方式幫助將其維度化。我很好奇我們在多大程度上 - 我們是否期望在今年上半年看到更多折扣？或者你能談談那個節奏上的 puts 和 takes 是什麼嗎？

Sure. Four primary drivers in our gross margin guidance. We are forecasting 47% in 2023, up from 45.9% this year. And the 2 positive drivers for us being pricing, and that's mostly the carryover impact of our 2022 actions. Second is our optimizing for growth savings. As Ynon said in the remarks, we have increased our OFG target to $300 million from $250 million and the majority of this program benefiting cost of goods sold.

當然。我們毛利率指引中的四個主要驅動因素。我們預測 2023 年為 47%，高於今年的 45.9%。我們正在定價的 2 個積極驅動因素，這主要是我們 2022 年行動的結轉影響。其次是我們優化增長儲蓄。正如 Ynon 在發言中所說，我們已將 OFG 目標從 2.5 億美元提高到 3 億美元，並且該計劃的大部分受益於已售商品的成本。

And then going the other way, we continue to see some inflation in COGS, although it's significantly moderated from what happened in 2022. And that's because although we foresee some deflation in ocean freight, it's more than offset by increases in labor rates in some of our supply chain markets as well as some inflation on certain material and packaging items.

然後反過來，我們繼續看到 COGS 出現一些通貨膨脹，儘管它比 2022 年發生的情況明顯緩和。這是因為儘管我們預計海運會出現一些通貨緊縮，但它被一些國家的勞動力價格上漲所抵消。我們的供應鏈市場以及某些材料和包裝物品的通貨膨脹。

And then the fourth item, which is a negative, we ended a bit high with owned inventory levels, which we plan to reduce in 2023. So we lowered our production schedule to do that, and that comes with a negative fixed cost absorption impact, which we factored into our guidance as well.

然後是第四項，這是負面的，我們的自有庫存水平有點高，我們計劃在 2023 年減少。因此我們降低了生產計劃來做到這一點，這帶來了負面的固定成本吸收影響，我們也將其納入了我們的指南。

Got it. That's -- just to clarify, I think there was like a 350 bps headwind from discounting in the gross margin rate for 4Q. But I'm guessing that was more related just to the holiday season. We're past that at this point, we shouldn't expect that to be a meaningful headwind in the first half of '23?

知道了。那就是 - 只是為了澄清，我認為第四季度的毛利率貼現有 350 個基點的逆風。但我猜這與假期更相關。在這一點上我們已經過去了，我們不應該期望這會在 23 年上半年成為一個有意義的逆風？

Correct.

正確的。

Your next question comes from Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets.

你的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Gerrick Johnson。

Advertising declined about, what, 9% in the fourth quarter. It was down last year as well in the fourth quarter, but that's because you had no inventory to sell. So this year, plenty of inventory, why spend less on advertising? Why do that and not try and stimulate some demand and stimulate more POS?

廣告在第四季度下降了大約 9%。去年第四季度也有所下降，但那是因為你沒有庫存可賣。那麼今年存貨充足，為什麼要少花廣告費呢？為什麼這樣做而不是嘗試刺激一些需求並刺激更多的 POS？

Yes. So Gerrick, as you know, heading into the fourth quarter, we had planned to actually increase advertising, assuming we hit our POS aspirations. But as we went through the quarter, we did see lower volumes, and given a good portion of our spend is on digital media, that gives us flexibility to make adjustments in real time. And as we saw the volumes come in a little soft, we made some adjustments to our advertising. It wasn't all that significant, I don't think. We finished the year, I think, down just 2% and at 9.8% of net sales, so down 20 basis points versus last year. So a full spend there to support demand drivers in our products and our brands.

是的。所以 Gerrick，正如你所知，在進入第四季度時，我們計劃實際增加廣告，假設我們達到了 POS 的願望。但在整個季度中，我們確實看到銷量下降，並且鑑於我們的很大一部分支出用於數字媒體，這使我們能夠靈活地進行實時調整。當我們看到銷量有點疲軟時，我們對廣告進行了一些調整。這並不是那麼重要，我不認為。我認為，我們今年結束時僅下降了 2%，占淨銷售額的 9.8%，與去年相比下降了 20 個基點。因此，在那裡投入全部資金來支持我們產品和品牌的需求驅動因素。

Okay. This question was asked before, but it wasn't answered, so I'm going to ask it again. Disney Princess, how much do you think that will contribute to the year? What's built in your guidance there? And how much was shipped in the fourth quarter?

好的。這個問題之前有人問過，但是沒有人回答，所以我再問一次。迪士尼公主，你認為今年會貢獻多少？你在那裡的指導是什麼？第四季度出貨量是多少？

Yes. So as we, again, give the guidance, one of the primary drivers is anticipated growth in our Dolls category. As Richard said, we've got Monster High, we've got Disney Princess, we've got Trolls, we've got the Barbie movie, so that's all inside of that. And we also expect Vehicles to grow. So those are the key primary drivers, and that's all inside of our guidance. I don't know if that answers the question, Gerrick?

是的。因此，當我們再次提供指導時，主要驅動因素之一是我們玩偶類別的預期增長。正如理查德所說，我們有 Monster High，我們有 Disney Princess，我們有 Trolls，我們有芭比娃娃電影，所以這一切都在裡面。我們還預計車輛會增長。因此，這些是關鍵的主要驅動因素，而這些都在我們的指導範圍內。我不知道這是否回答了問題，Gerrick？

No, a number would answer the question, like $250 million, $400 million.

不，一個數字可以回答這個問題，比如 2.5 億美元、4 億美元。

Yes, we're not going to break it down by specific property.

是的，我們不會按特定屬性對其進行細分。

Okay. Well, we know it was, what, roughly a $250 million property when it left Hasbro. It was a $400 million property when it left you 6 years ago. So maybe somewhere in between?

好的。好吧，我們知道它離開孩之寶時大約是價值 2.5 億美元的財產。 6 年前，它離開你時是價值 4 億美元的財產。所以也許介於兩者之間？

Yes. We can't comment, Gerrick, on that specifically. But what we are comfortable in saying is we feel very -- that we have great plans and exciting opportunity to scale Disney Princes and Frozen and take it to new levels.

是的。 Gerrick，我們不能就此具體發表評論。但我們可以放心地說的是，我們感到非常 - 我們有偉大的計劃和令人興奮的機會來擴大迪士尼王子和冰雪奇緣並將其提升到新的水平。

Your next question comes from Andrew Uerkwitz of Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Andrew Uerkwitz。

I'm just trying to reconcile a couple of your comments, and I may have missed this in the comments earlier because it was very thorough. You're calling for POS to be up, you're calling for an industry to be up, you're going to be flat. You have a couple of lines that are effectively starting from 0, Disney Trolls and Monster High, in the year. So I'm just kind of curious -- and I think you also said Vehicles will be up for the year. So I'm just -- could you give us a little bit more color on where the weakness is, the quality of the inventory of those lines that are weaker, and what's your confidence on moving through some of those segments?

我只是想調和您的一些評論，我可能在之前的評論中忽略了這一點，因為它非常詳盡。你是在呼喚 POS 漲，你是在呼喚一個行業漲，你是要持平。你有幾行實際上是從 0 開始的，Disney Trolls 和 Monster High，在這一年。所以我只是有點好奇——我想你也說過車輛將在今年上市。所以我只是 - 你能否給我們更多關於弱點的顏色，那些較弱線的庫存質量，以及你對通過其中一些細分市場的信心如何？

Sure. Let me unpack the top line guidance again. I mean overall, we expect constant currency net sales to be flat with growth in the Dolls and Vehicles categories, offset by decline in Infant, Toddler, and Preschool and Challenger categories, that's primarily in Action Figures as we wrap the theatrical tie-ins in 2022. Our guidance includes a onetime negative impact from the anticipated reduction in retailer inventory levels, and that's about 3 to 4 percentage points that's inside the guidance.

當然。讓我再次打開頂線指南。我的意思是，總體而言，我們預計不變的貨幣淨銷售額將與玩偶和車輛類別的增長持平，但被嬰兒、學步兒童、學齡前兒童和挑戰者類別的下降所抵消，這主要是在可動人偶中，因為我們將戲劇搭配包裝在2022 年。我們的指導包括預期的零售商庫存水平下降帶來的一次性負面影響，這在指導範圍內大約 3 到 4 個百分點。

We're also assuming underlying growth in consumer demand as measured by POS. And as Ynon said, our expectation for the toy industry is it -- for it to be flat to slightly positive. So that implies that we expect to outpace the industry and gain market share in 2023.

我們還假設以 POS 衡量的消費者需求的潛在增長。正如 Ynon 所說，我們對玩具行業的預期是——持平到略微積極。因此，這意味著我們預計將在 2023 年超越行業並獲得市場份額。

Got it. And I guess my second question, if I could. What kind of impact should we expect from the Barbie movie? And what kind of mix do you see in the doll category between Barbie, Monster High and American Doll and Disney Princess?

知道了。我想我的第二個問題，如果可以的話。我們應該期待芭比電影產生什麼樣的影響？在玩偶類別中，您認為芭比娃娃、魔獸高中和美國娃娃以及迪士尼公主之間的組合是什麼樣的？

In terms of the Barbie movie, we've made certain assumptions and factored into our guidance the impact of movie-specific toy sales, and then more closely related to the movie, a producer fee and estimated participation in the movie success for licensing the IP. And again, that's all factored into the guidance that we gave.

就芭比電影而言，我們做出了某些假設，並將電影特定玩具銷售的影響納入我們的指導，然後與電影更密切相關，製作人費用和估計參與電影成功獲得 IP 許可.再說一次，這都已納入我們提供的指導中。

Your next question comes from Arpine Kocharyan of UBS Investment Bank.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀投資銀行的 Arpine Kocharyan。

Can I go back to the inventory levels at retail for just a second? How much exactly are weeks of inventory up year-over-year? Because it seems to be that there's this big gap between POS and sales declines for the quarter close to something like 30% delta, which shows you took very aggressive actions in the quarter for the quarter to clean that inventory. How -- I'm just trying to understand how is it still impacting full year by as much as 4 percentage points. Is there anything that would break that math of how inventories can be up significantly? Or are they not up significantly? Because being up is not surprising because you were -- you're comping not so optimal levels of inventory given supply chain disruption in the year prior. So just trying to understand that a little bit better. And then I have a quick follow-up.

我可以回到零售庫存水平一秒鐘嗎？庫存週數同比增長了多少？因為似乎本季度 POS 與銷售下降之間存在巨大差距，接近 30% 的增量，這表明您在本季度採取了非常積極的行動來清理庫存。如何——我只是想了解它如何仍然對全年產生多達 4 個百分點的影響。有什麼可以打破庫存如何顯著增加的數學嗎？或者它們沒有顯著上升？因為上漲並不奇怪，因為你 - 考慮到前一年供應鏈中斷，你的庫存水平並不是那麼理想。所以只是想更好地理解這一點。然後我有一個快速跟進。

Yes. I think the thing to recognize the typical pattern for retailer inventory is for them to build through the first 3 quarters of the year and then for it to decline in the fourth quarter. So we typically do see an inventory reduction in Q4. So that's not unusual. And although, right, it's been a little more significant in the fourth quarter than it's been in the past, as we look at the data, and we've got good data on retailer inventory levels, we do believe they're elevated. And the quantification of that is the correction we're anticipating for 2023, which is that 3 to 4 percentage points of top line impact. So little more to burn off here going into 2023.

是的。我認為要認識到零售商庫存的典型模式是他們在今年前三個季度建立起來，然後在第四季度下降。因此，我們通常確實會在第四季度看到庫存減少。所以這並不罕見。儘管第四季度比過去更重要，但當我們查看數據時，我們得到了關於零售商庫存水平的良好數據，我們確實相信它們有所上升。對此的量化是我們預計 2023 年的修正，即頂線影響的 3 到 4 個百分點。到 2023 年，這裡就沒有什麼可燃燒的了。

Okay. And then on Barbie, it's very clear that it's very hard to sustain margins when Barbie declines. So my question is whether you're planning for that brand to grow. And I think you did say you're planning on Barbie to grow for the year. What offsetting factors are there in case that doesn't happen from sort of Monster High? If you could take a moment to discuss kind of margin differential in Barbie versus Monster High, it would be super helpful. And then just an unrelated housekeeping question, does your EPS guide incorporate share buyback?

好的。然後在芭比娃娃上，很明顯，當芭比娃娃衰落時，很難維持利潤率。所以我的問題是你是否計劃讓這個品牌成長。我想你確實說過你計劃讓芭比娃娃在這一年裡成長。如果 Monster High 沒有發生這種情況，有哪些抵消因素？如果您能花點時間討論一下芭比娃娃與 Monster High 的利潤差異，那將非常有幫助。然後只是一個不相關的管理問題，您的 EPS 指南是否包含股票回購？

So I'll start with the Barbie question and overall portfolio. First off, it's important to recognize Barbie actually outpaced the industry in the fourth quarter and gained global market share per NPD. It was also the #1 global dolls property and also the #2 global industry property in the fourth quarter. Now the fourth quarter performance was below expectations. POS, however, was only down 1% for the quarter which, of course, significantly outpaced shipping.

所以我將從芭比娃娃的問題和整體組合開始。首先，重要的是要認識到芭比娃娃實際上在第四季度超越了整個行業，並且每個 NPD 都獲得了全球市場份額。它也是第四季度全球排名第一的玩偶資產和全球第二大工業資產。現在第四季度業績低於預期。然而，POS 在本季度僅下降了 1%，這當然大大超過了運輸。

When we look at the brand's performance in context of the economic environment, retail volatility, category dynamics and, of course, consumer takeaway, we're very confident that our brand is really in a strong position to continue its leadership in the industry and, of course, its long-term potential. It continues to resonate with consumers in a profound way. And the movie expectation is just one example of that. But we're expanding our category reach. We're continuing to grow share. All of this is an indication of the overall health of the brand.

當我們在經濟環境、零售波動、品類動態，當然還有消費者外賣的背景下審視該品牌的表現時，我們非常有信心我們的品牌確實處於有利地位，可以繼續在行業中保持領先地位，並且，當然，它的長期潛力。它繼續以深刻的方式與消費者產生共鳴。對電影的期待只是其中的一個例子。但我們正在擴大我們的品類範圍。我們正在繼續增加份額。所有這些都表明該品牌的整體健康狀況。

Now as you asked, it's also really important to recognize, and we talk a lot about category management, that Barbie is part of our Dolls portfolio, which also continues to be the #1 portfolio in the world in the doll category, and Mattel overall continued to grow share in both the quarter and the full year in the doll category per NPD. The lineup that we have coming for 2023 really will be the year of the doll. And of course, Barbie leading the pack in the context of what she represents, but there are incredible things happening from Mattel in the doll category, most notably, of course, the theatrical for Barbie, but the Disney Princess collection and Frozen product lines that have already started hitting shelves earlier this year have already started to gain traction. Monster High, global rollout as we mentioned before, and of course, the addition of Universal's Trolls, Polly Pocket, one of our strongest legacy brands as well.

現在正如您所問，認識到這一點也非常重要，我們經常談論品類管理，芭比娃娃是我們玩偶產品組合的一部分，它也繼續在玩偶品類中排名世界第一，而 Mattel 整體每個 NPD 的玩偶類別在本季度和全年的份額都在持續增長。我們為 2023 年準備的陣容真的將是娃娃年。當然，芭比娃娃在她所代表的背景下處於領先地位，但美泰在洋娃娃類別中發生了令人難以置信的事情，當然最引人注目的是芭比娃娃的戲劇，但迪士尼公主系列和冰雪奇緣產品線今年早些時候已經開始上架 已經開始受到關注。正如我們之前提到的 Monster High，全球推出，當然還有 Universal 的 Trolls、Polly Pocket，這是我們最強大的傳統品牌之一。

So there is really a great winning hand in the doll category that will really show up on the scoreboard. And again, I think we'll get into much more detail in our Investor Day coming up soon.

因此，玩偶類別中確實有一隻很棒的獲勝手，它會真正出現在記分牌上。再說一次，我認為我們將在即將到來的投資者日中詳細介紹更多細節。

And Arpine, can you repeat the question on the share buyback?

Arpine，你能重複一下關於股票回購的問題嗎？

Yes. Just a quick question for Anthony. Does the EPS guide includes share buybacks or not?

是的。只是問安東尼一個簡短的問題。每股收益指南是否包括股票回購？

Yes. So we were happy to be able to announce that we expect to resume share repurchases in 2023. That's really a reflection of our improved financial position, our improved outlook for free cash flow. We expect to do over $400 million in 2023. And it's really consistent with the capital allocation priorities that we've talked about. And we've got $200 million remaining under the current authorization and, yes, we've made some assumptions. It is reflected in our 2023 guidance.

是的。因此，我們很高興能夠宣布，我們預計將在 2023 年恢復股票回購。這確實反映了我們財務狀況的改善，以及自由現金流前景的改善。我們預計到 2023 年將完成超過 4 億美元的投資。這與我們談到的資本分配優先事項非常一致。根據目前的授權，我們還有 2 億美元，是的，我們做了一些假設。這反映在我們的 2023 年指南中。

Your next question comes from Linda Bolton-Weiser of D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 D.A. 的 Linda Bolton-Weiser。戴維森。

I was just wondering if you could give a little color on the 17% American Girl decline in the quarter. Since it's mostly a DTC brand, shouldn't have had such channel inventory issues, so I'm just curious why the demand was down so much in the quarter.

我只是想知道您是否可以對本季度 17% 的 American Girl 下降給出一點顏色。因為它主要是一個 DTC 品牌，不應該有這樣的渠道庫存問題，所以我很好奇為什麼這個季度的需求下降了這麼多。

Yes. Linda, again, I'll start by reinforcing this is truly one of the most treasured brands in the industry, let alone the Mattel Doll portfolio. And the decline was primarily due to the soft performance of our 2022 Girl of the Year and in certain historical characters. You're right, Linda, American Girl is a premium brand where the majority of our sales are in our proprietary channels. But like general retail, we did see the POS accelerate in December, but it was not enough to offset the lower than anticipated sales that we had in October and November.

是的。琳達，我再次強調，這確實是業內最珍貴的品牌之一，更不用說美泰娃娃產品組合了。下降的主要原因是我們的 2022 年度最佳女郎和某些歷史人物表現不佳。你是對的，琳達，American Girl 是一個高端品牌，我們的大部分銷售都來自我們的專有渠道。但與一般零售業一樣，我們確實看到 POS 在 12 月加速增長，但這不足以抵消我們 10 月和 11 月低於預期的銷售額。

We did see strong sales in our New York City flagship store, which was really encouraging. But again, the flagship was impacted overall because our Los Angeles store was closed as we're in the process of relocating that store. We continue to believe and progress on our strategy. We're optimizing our retail footprint. We're driving a consumer omnichannel experience. There are a lot of learnings in 2022, but ultimately, we are really reaffirming our strategy as a purpose-driven, premium DTC offering.

我們確實看到紐約市旗艦店的銷售強勁，這確實令人鼓舞。但同樣，旗艦店受到了整體影響，因為我們的洛杉磯商店在搬遷過程中關閉了。我們繼續相信我們的戰略並取得進展。我們正在優化我們的零售足跡。我們正在推動消費者全渠道體驗。 2022 年有很多經驗教訓，但最終，我們確實重申了我們的戰略，即以目標為導向的優質 DTC 產品。

2023, there's a lot to look forward to. We've got new characters, new product launch timing, new partnerships that we're going to be revealing soon and of course, the opening of our new L.A. flagship store. Again, confident in the future and looking forward to sharing more detail with you soon.

2023，有很多值得期待的地方。我們即將推出新角色、新產品發佈時間、新合作夥伴關係，當然還有我們新洛杉磯旗艦店的開業。再次，對未來充滿信心，並期待盡快與您分享更多細節。

Your next question comes from Stephen Laszczyk of Goldman Sachs.

你的下一個問題來自高盛的 Stephen Laszczyk。

Great. Maybe just one more on inventory. I was wondering if you could touch a little bit more on if there are any categories in particular where retail inventory levels ended the year in a particularly better worse or better spot? And maybe Hot Wheels fared better than the doll category, for example? And then just as a follow-up on capital allocation, maybe for Anthony, it was great to see the credit upgrade in November. I was curious where the conversation stands with the other 2 agencies and what they're looking for maybe in terms of a potential upgrade this year? And maybe as it relates to that, how you're thinking about the magnitude of share repurchases that are incorporated in your guidance for 2023?

偉大的。也許只有一個庫存。我想知道您是否可以多談談是否有任何類別特別是零售庫存水平在年底時處於特別好或更差或更好的位置？例如，也許 Hot Wheels 的表現比洋娃娃類別好？然後作為資本配置的後續行動，也許對安東尼來說，很高興看到 11 月的信用升級。我很好奇與其他 2 家機構的對話進展如何，以及他們正在尋找什麼可能是今年的潛在升級？也許與此相關的是，您如何考慮納入 2023 年指導意見的股票回購規模？

Yes. So in terms of inventory or retail inventory levels, there's no category that materially overindexes either way in terms of this situation. With respect to the rating agencies, we're in continuing dialogue with them and discussing our results. So we'll have to wait and see what, if any, actions that they take in the near term. We feel really good about where our numbers are, 2.4x debt to EBITDA. We're down from 2.6x last year, down from 4.1x the year before. So we've made consistent improvement in that metric.

是的。因此，就庫存或零售庫存水平而言，就這種情況而言，沒有任何類別會嚴重超標。關於評級機構，我們正在與他們繼續對話並討論我們的結果。因此，我們必須拭目以待，看看他們在短期內會採取什麼行動（如果有的話）。我們對我們的數字感到非常滿意，債務是 EBITDA 的 2.4 倍。我們比去年的 2.6 倍有所下降，比前一年的 4.1 倍有所下降。因此，我們對該指標進行了持續改進。

And then lastly, on share repurchases. As I mentioned, we have $200 million of remaining current authorization, but not ready to share a specific number in terms of what our forecasted repurchases are for 2023.

最後，關於股票回購。正如我提到的，我們目前還有 2 億美元的剩餘授權，但還沒有準備好根據我們對 2023 年的預測回購數量分享具體數字。

We have time for one more question. Your final question comes from Fred Wightman of Wolfe Research.

我們還有時間再問一個問題。你的最後一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Fred Wightman。

I just wanted to ask about the expectation for higher incentive comp in '23. I think you sized that at $100 million year-over-year. I would assume most of that came out of 4Q, but how should we think about the sequencing? Do you guys have to book some of that as we move throughout the year? Or should it really just hit all in the fourth quarter year-over-year?

我只是想問一下對 23 年更高激勵補償的期望。我認為你的規模是每年 1 億美元。我假設其中大部分來自第四季度，但我們應該如何考慮排序？我們全年搬家時，你們必須預訂其中的一些嗎？或者它真的應該在第四季度同比全部實現嗎？

A good point. The reduction this year came predominantly in the fourth quarter. But in a normal year, we would accrue that ratably through the year and adjust as we update our forecast.

一個好點。今年的減少主要發生在第四季度。但在正常年份，我們會按比例累積這一年，並在更新預測時進行調整。

Okay. And then there was a comment earlier just that you're assuming some film participation in the top line guide. I'm wondering if that is sort of a new treatment or a new expectation? Or if we think about some of the prior 2023 targets that were out there that you guys had obviously removed last quarter, but if you were sort of always assuming there would be some film participation when you were putting numbers into the market?

好的。然後之前有一條評論說你假設一些電影參與了頂級指南。我想知道這是一種新的治療方法還是一種新的期望？或者，如果我們考慮一些你們上個季度顯然已經取消的 2023 年之前的目標，但是如果你們總是假設在將數字投入市場時會有一些電影參與？

Yes. We've consistently made that assumption in terms of film participation, since some of the franchise adjacencies that we do have get included in our category reporting as well.

是的。我們一直在電影參與方面做出這樣的假設，因為我們的一些特許經營鄰接也被包含在我們的類別報告中。

This concludes the question-and-answer session for today's call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Chairman and CEO, Ynon Kreiz, for final remarks.

今天電話會議的問答環節到此結束。我現在想將電話轉回給董事長兼首席執行官 Ynon Kreiz，以作最後評論。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Just to recap a few words. Despite the challenges in the fourth quarter, the full year results tell a more complete story in the context of our multiyear growth trajectory. As you can see in positive POS for both the quarter and the year, and positive POS in every region for the quarter and the year, our product is in demand, and we ended the year on strong financial footing with a stronger balance sheet, a lower leverage ratio, a better leverage ratio, and as we see it, in the strongest financial position we've been in years. We are confident about our plans and look forward to next year.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。簡單回顧一下。儘管第四季度面臨挑戰，但全年業績在我們多年增長軌蹟的背景下講述了一個更完整的故事。正如您在本季度和年度的正 POS 以及本季度和年度每個地區的正 POS 所看到的那樣，我們的產品需求旺盛，我們以強大的財務基礎和更強大的資產負債表結束了這一年，較低的槓桿率，更好的槓桿率，正如我們所看到的，我們處於多年來最強勁的財務狀況。我們對我們的計劃充滿信心，並期待明年。

I also want to thank the entire Mattel global team for doing such a great job in a challenging environment and for the contribution in 2022, an ongoing commitment to executing our strategy. We hope everyone will join us on the virtual investors presentation in March. Thank you again for joining us. We will share more information on that call soon. Appreciate your interest in the company.

我還要感謝整個 Mattel 全球團隊在充滿挑戰的環境中完成瞭如此出色的工作，並感謝他們在 2022 年做出的貢獻，這是對執行我們戰略的持續承諾。我們希望每個人都能加入我們 3 月份的虛擬投資者演示會。再次感謝您加入我們。我們將很快分享有關該電話的更多信息。感謝您對公司的興趣。

And now back to Dave.

現在回到戴夫。

Thank you, Ynon, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. A replay of this call will be available via webcast beginning at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The webcast link can be found in the Events and Presentations section of our Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com. Thank you for participating in today's call.

謝謝 Ynon，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。從晚上 8 點 30 分開始，將通過網絡直播重播此次通話。今天東部時間。可以在公司網站 corporate.mattel.com 投資者部分的活動和演示部分找到網絡廣播鏈接。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

Ladies and gentlemen, again, thank you for your participation in today's event. This concludes today's call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，再次感謝你們參加今天的活動。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。