Mattel Inc (MAT) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Emma, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mattel Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

午安.我叫艾瑪，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加美泰兒 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

David Zbojniewicz, Vice President Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

David Zbojniewicz，投資者關係副總裁。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are Ynon Kreiz, Mattel's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Anthony DiSilvestro, Mattel's Chief Financial Officer. As you know, this afternoon, we reported Mattel's 2023 3rd quarter financial results. We will begin today's call with Ynon and Anthony providing commentary on our results, after which, we will provide some time for questions.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。今天與我一起出席的還有美泰董事長兼執行長 Ynon Kreiz；和美泰財務長安東尼·迪西爾維斯特羅(Anthony DiSilvestro)。如您所知，今天下午，我們報告了美泰 2023 年第三季財務業績。我們將首先由伊農和安東尼對我們的結果發表評論，然後我們將提供一些提問時間。

To help supplement our discussion today, we have provided you with a slide presentation. Our discussion, slide presentation and earnings release may reference non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted gross profit and adjusted gross margin, adjusted other selling and administrative expenses, adjusted operating income or loss and adjusted operating income or loss margin, adjusted earnings per share, adjusted tax rate, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, free cash flow conversion, leverage ratio, net debt and constant currency.

為了幫助補充我們今天的討論，我們為您提供了幻燈片簡報。我們的討論、幻燈片簡報和收益發布可能會參考非公認會計準則財務指標，包括調整後的毛利和調整後的毛利率、調整後的其他銷售和管理費用、調整後的營業收入或虧損以及調整後的營業收入或虧損率、調整後的每股盈餘、調整後稅率、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤或EBITDA、調整後EBITDA、自由現金流、自由現金流轉換、槓桿率、淨債務和固定貨幣。

In addition, we present changes in gross billings, a key performance indicator. Please note that we may refer to gross billings as billings in our presentation and that gross buildings figures referenced on this call will be stated in constant currency, unless stated otherwise. For today's presentation, references to POS and consumer demand exclude the impact related to our Russia business, given our decision to pause all shipments into Russia in 2022. Our slide presentation can be viewed in sync with today's call when you access it through the Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com.

此外，我們也提供了一項關鍵績效指標—總帳單的變動。請注意，除非另有說明，否則我們可能會在簡報中將總帳單稱為帳單，並且本次電話會議中引用的總建築資料將以固定貨幣表示。在今天的演示中，考慮到我們決定在2022 年暫停向俄羅斯的所有發貨，提及POS 和消費者需求時排除了與我們俄羅斯業務相關的影響。當您通過投資者部分訪問時，可以與今天的電話會議同步查看我們的幻燈片演示我們公司網站 Corporate.mattel.com。

The information required by Regulation G regarding non-GAAP financial measures as well as information regarding our key performance indicator is included in our earnings release and slide presentation, and both documents are also available in the Investors section of our corporate website. The preliminary financial results included in the press release and slide presentation represent the most current information available to management. The company's actual results when disclosed in its Form 10-Q may differ from these preliminary results as a result of the completion of the company's financial closing procedures, final adjustments, completion of the review by the company's independent registered public accounting firm and other developments that may arise between now and the disclosure of the final results.

G 條例要求的有關非 GAAP 財務指標的資訊以及有關我們關鍵績效指標的資訊均包含在我們的收益發布和幻燈片演示中，這兩份文件也可在我們公司網站的投資者部分中找到。新聞稿和幻燈片簡報中包含的初步財務業績代表了管理層可獲得的最新資訊。由於公司財務結算程序的完成、最終調整、公司獨立註冊會計師事務所審核的完成以及其他事態發展，公司在 10-Q 表格中披露的實際結果可能與這些初步結果有所不同。從現在到最終結果披露之間可能會發生。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution you that certain statements made during the call are forward-looking, including statements related to the future performance of our business, brands, categories and product lines. Any statements we make about the future are, by their nature, uncertain. These statements are based on currently available information and assumptions, and they are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We describe some of these uncertainties in the Risk Factors section of our 2022 Annual Operating Report or Form 10-K, our Q2 2023 quarterly report on Form 10-Q, our earnings release and presentation and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time as well as in other public statements. Mattel does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so except as required by law.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，電話會議中所做的某些陳述是前瞻性的，包括與我們業務、品牌、類別和產品線的未來業績相關的陳述。我們對未來所做的任何陳述本質上都是不確定的。這些陳述是基於目前可用的資訊和假設，並受到許多重大風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的預測有所不同。我們在2022 年年度營運報告或10-K 表的風險因素部分、2023 年第2 季10-Q 表的季度報告、我們的收益發布和演示以及我們不時向SEC 提交的其他文件中描述了其中一些不確定性。時間以及其他公開聲明中。美泰不會更新前瞻性陳述，並明確表示不承擔任何更新的義務，除非法律要求。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Ynon.

現在我想把電話轉給 Ynon。

Thank you for joining our third quarter 2023 earnings call. Mattel's strong third quarter performance reflects the successful execution of our strategy to grow material's IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering. Our financial results exceeded expectations and showed meaningful sales growth and margin expansion with very strong free cash flow. Consumer demand for our products increased in the quarter and we continued to outpace the industry. The company benefited from the success of the Barbie movie with significant contributions from box office participation, the [movie toy] line and consumer product partnerships.

感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。美泰第三季的強勁業績反映出我們成功執行了發展 Material 智慧財產權驅動的玩具業務和擴大我們的娛樂產品的策略。我們的財務表現超出了預期，並顯示出顯著的銷售成長和利潤率擴張以及非常強勁的自由現金流。本季消費者對我們產品的需求增加，我們繼續領先產業。該公司受益於芭比電影的成功，票房參與、[電影玩具]系列和消費產品合作夥伴關係做出了重大貢獻。

Looking at key financial metrics for the third quarter as compared to the year ago period. Net sales increased 9% as reported or 7% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 270 basis points to 51%. Adjusted EBITDA increased 22% to $580 million and trailing 12-month free cash flow increased by $158 million to $461 million. POS was up mid-single digits in the quarter and up low single digits year-to-date. We expect POS to continue to grow as we enter the holiday season. Per Circana in the third quarter and year-to-date, Mattel gained share globally and in its 3 leader categories; Dolls, Vehicles and Infant Toddler and Preschool as well as in Building Sets.

看看第三季的主要財務指標與去年同期相比。報告淨銷售額成長 9%，以固定匯率計算成長 7%。調整後毛利率提高了 270 個基點，達到 51%。調整後 EBITDA 成長 22%，達到 5.8 億美元，過去 12 個月自由現金流增加 1.58 億美元，達到 4.61 億美元。 POS 本季實現中個位數成長，年初至今實現低個位數成長。我們預計隨著假期的到來，POS 將繼續成長。根據 Circana 的數據，第三季和今年迄今為止，美泰在全球及其 3 個領先類別中的份額有所增加；玩偶、車輛、嬰幼兒和學前班以及建築套裝。

Following 22% growth from 2019 to 2022, the global toy industry was down year-to-date and in the third quarter per Circana. We expect the industry to decline mid-single digits for the full year. As it relates to Mattel, we are very well positioned competitively and expect a strong holiday season. Going into the fourth quarter, we have a broad-based lineup of innovative toys across multiple categories, play patterns, and price points. This applies to our own franchises as well as partner IP, including the upcoming Universal Trolls and Disney Wish movies.

根據 Circana 的數據，繼 2019 年至 2022 年成長 22% 後，全球玩具產業今年迄今和第三季均下滑。我們預計該行業全年將出現中個位數下降。就美泰而言，我們處於非常有利的競爭地位，預計假日季將會表現強勁。進入第四季度，我們擁有涵蓋多個類別、遊戲模式和價位的廣泛創新玩具陣容。這適用於我們自己的特許經營權以及合作夥伴 IP，包括即將上映的《環球魔發》和《迪士尼願望》電影。

We have greater retailer support versus the prior year with more shelf space, larger representation across major holiday catalogs and plans for increased advertising. We expect to continue to outpace the industry and gain market share in the fourth quarter and full year. Given Mattel's year-to-date performance and expectations for the fourth quarter, we are updating our 2023 guidance to reflect an improved margin and profit outlook. Anthony will provide more detail shortly.

與前一年相比，我們獲得了更多的零售商支持，貨架空間更大，主要節日目錄的代表性更大，並且計劃增加廣告。我們預計第四季度和全年將繼續超越行業並獲得市場份額。鑑於美泰今年迄今的業績和第四季的預期，我們正在更新 2023 年指引，以反映利潤率和利潤前景的改善。安東尼很快就會提供更多細節。

Reflecting the strength of our financial position and confidence in creating long-term shareholder value, we made additional share repurchases in the quarter and expect to continue repurchases as part of our capital allocation priorities. Our strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering is serving us well. We are focused on accelerating top line by scaling our portfolio, growing franchise brands and advancing e-commerce and D2C, increasing profitability by continuing to optimize our operations and capturing the full value of our IP outside the toy aisle.

為了反映我們的財務狀況和創造長期股東價值的信心，我們在本季度進行了額外的股票回購，並預計將繼續回購作為我們資本配置優先事項的一部分。我們發展知識產權驅動的玩具業務和擴大娛樂產品的策略對我們很有幫助。我們專注於透過擴大我們的產品組合、發展特許經營品牌以及推進電子商務和 D2C 來加速收入成長，透過持續優化我們的營運來提高盈利能力，並在玩具管道之外獲取我們知識產權的全部價值。

As it relates to the performance of our toy business in the third quarter, Dolls continue to grow with the benefit from the Barbie movie related toy line and adult collector base the expanded Disney Princess and Disney Frozen line and the global rollout of Monster High. Vehicles performed exceptionally well, driven by Hot Wheels. The franchise is on track for a sixth consecutive record year of growth as we continue to innovate in new segments, including the new [Racing Rivals] line.

由於與我們第三季度玩具業務的業績相關，娃娃繼續增長，受益於芭比電影相關玩具系列和成人收藏者群體、迪士尼公主和迪士尼冰雪奇緣系列的擴大以及 Monster High 的全球推出。由 Hot Wheels 驅動的車輛表現異常出色。隨著我們繼續在新的領域進行創新，包括新的 [Racing Rivals] 系列，該系列有望連續第六年實現創紀錄的成長。

In Infant, toddler and preschool, Fisher-Price declined, but shipping and POS trends improved in the quarter. Little People Collector continued to expand and now features all 32 NFL teams. Challenger categories in aggregate declined as it comped an exceptionally strong film slate last year. Building sets grew. And in games, we announced Pictionary versus AI, the first physical board game to integrate AI into gameplay. We also renewed Mattel's multi-category agreement with Nintendo.

在嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童領域，費雪品牌有所下降，但運輸和 POS 趨勢在本季度有所改善。 Little People Collector 繼續擴展，現在包含所有 32 支 NFL 球隊。去年挑戰者類別的影片數量異常強勁，因此整體下降。建築套件不斷增長。在遊戲方面，我們推出了Pictionary vs AI，這是第一款將人工智慧融入遊戲玩法的實體棋盤遊戲。我們也與任天堂續簽了美泰的多品類協議。

In terms of our entertainment business, this was a breakout quarter for Mattel. The Barbie movie, Mattel's first major theatrical release became a global cultural phenomenon, breaking numerous box office records and becoming the highest-grossing film of 2023. The movie was a showcase for the cultural relevance of our IP, our ability to attract and collaborate with top creative talent and our demand creation capabilities at a global scale. The movie has broadened Barbie's fan base which will be an important contributor for the brand as part of our long-term franchise management strategy. It also speaks to the potential of Mattel films and the significant progress of our strategy to capture the full value of our IP.

就我們的娛樂業務而言，本季對美泰來說是一個突破性的季度。美泰兒首部在院線上映的芭比電影成為全球文化現象，打破了多項票房紀錄，成為 2023 年票房最高的電影。這部電影展示了我們 IP 的文化相關性以及我們吸引和合作的能力頂尖的創意人才以及我們在全球創造需求的能力。這部電影擴大了芭比娃娃的粉絲群，作為我們長期特許經營管理策略的一部分，這將成為品牌的重要貢獻者。它也說明了美泰兒電影的潛力以及我們在充分發揮智慧財產權價值的策略方面取得的重大進展。

Mattel Television premiered new episodes of the Monster High animated series and a live-action movie sequel, a special for Polly Pocket, a new series for Barbie and new seasons of Thomas & Friends, Fireman Sam and the Pictionary game show. We also announced Hot Wheels Let's Race, a new animated series that will premiere on Netflix in spring 2024. In digital gaming, Mattel and Gamefam unveiled a Barbie DreamHouse experience on Roblox, Barbie's first-ever stand-alone game on the platform.

美泰電視台首播了《精靈高中》動畫系列的新劇集和真人電影續集、《口袋波莉》特別節目、《芭比娃娃》新系列以及《托馬斯和朋友》、《消防員山姆》和《畫圖》遊戲節目的新季。我們也宣布推出全新動畫影集《Hot Wheels Let's Race》，將於2024 年春季在Netflix 首播。在數位遊戲領域，Mattel 和Gamefam 在Roblox 上推出了芭比夢幻屋體驗，這是芭比在該平台上推出的首款獨立遊戲。

Our commitment to workplace culture and corporate citizenship continues. Mattel was named as one of the World's Best Employers by Forbes for the third year in a row and one of the 100 Best Companies by Seramount for the second year in a row. It is a reflection of how we are empowering a culture of growth, optimism and well-being for our global team.

我們繼續致力於工作場所文化和企業公民意識。美泰連續第三年被福布斯評為全球最佳雇主之一，並連續第二年被 Sermount 評為 100 家最佳公司之一。它反映了我們如何為我們的全球團隊營造成長、樂觀和福祉的文化。

In September, Mattel published its latest Citizenship Report, which highlights the progress we have made across our 3 ESG pillars: sustainable design and development, responsible sourcing and production and thriving and inclusive communities. We are committed to being a responsible corporate citizen and to our aim to contribute to a more diverse, equitable, inclusive and sustainable future.

9 月，美泰兒發布了最新的企業公民報告，強調了我們在 ESG 三大支柱方面取得的進展：永續設計和開發、負責任的採購和生產以及繁榮和包容的社區。我們致力於成為負責任的企業公民，並致力於為更多元化、公平、包容和永續的未來做出貢獻。

In closing, Mattel's third quarter results reflect our success in executing our strategy with Barbie movie marking a milestone for the company. We look forward to a strong holiday season for Mattel and expect to achieve our updated full year guidance and continue to grow market share. Looking beyond 2023, we believe we are well positioned to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering. We will benefit from the cultural relevance of our brands, continued innovation and demand creation capabilities across our portfolio, increase content and consumer product executions as well as ongoing financial discipline and cash flow management. We plan to provide full year guidance for 2024 on our 2023 4th quarter call.

最後，美泰第三季的業績反映了我們在執行策略方面的成功，芭比電影標誌著公司的里程碑。我們期待美泰兒度過一個強勁的假期，並期望實現我們更新的全年指引並繼續擴大市場份額。展望 2023 年後，我們相信我們處於有利地位，可以發展 IP 驅動的玩具業務並擴大我們的娛樂產品。我們將受益於我們品牌的文化相關性、整個產品組合的持續創新和需求創造能力、增加內容和消費產品的執行以及持續的財務紀律和現金流管理。我們計劃在 2023 年第四季電話會議上提供 2024 年全年指引。

I would like to thank the entire Mattel organization for their achievements, hard work and commitment to creating shareholder value. Before I turn the call over to Anthony, on behalf of Mattel, I would like to express our sadness following the horrific attacks in Israel. We condemn terrorism and the unthinkable violence taking place, including the ongoing hostage situation. Our thoughts are with all those who are suffering, have lost loved ones and are still in harm's way.

我要感謝整個美泰公司所取得的成就、辛勤工作以及對創造股東價值的承諾。在我代表美泰兒將電話轉給安東尼之前，我想表達我們對以色列發生的可怕襲擊事件的悲傷。我們譴責恐怖主義和正在發生的難以想像的暴力，包括持續的人質局勢。我們的思念與所有正在遭受苦難、失去親人以及仍處於危險之中的人們同在。

And now I will turn the call over to Anthony.

現在我將把電話轉給安東尼。

Thanks, Ynon. We had a strong third quarter with top and bottom line growth and significant free cash flow. Net sales of [$1.919 billion] increased 9% or 7% in constant currency compared to the prior year. Adjusted gross margin of 51% increased 270 basis points compared to the prior year benefiting from the accretive Barbie movie related economics. Adjusted operating income was $506 million, an increase of $108 million or 27% compared to the prior year, primarily driven by sales growth and gross margin expansion. Adjusted EPS was $1.08 compared to $0.82 a year ago, an increase of 32%. Adjusted EBITDA was $580 million, an increase of $106 million compared to the prior year.

謝謝，伊農。我們的第三季業績強勁，營收和利潤均實現成長，自由現金流顯著。淨銷售額 [19.19 億美元] 與前一年相比成長 9%，以固定匯率計算成長 7%。受惠於芭比電影相關經濟的成長，調整後毛利率為 51%，較前一年增加 270 個基點。調整後營業收入為 5.06 億美元，比上年增加 1.08 億美元，增幅為 27%，主要受到銷售成長和毛利率擴張的推動。調整後每股收益為 1.08 美元，較去年同期的 0.82 美元成長 32%。調整後 EBITDA 為 5.8 億美元，比前一年增加 1.06 億美元。

Turning to gross billings in constant currency. Overall, gross billings increased by 6%. POS increased by mid-single digits. Mattel continued to outpace the industry and gained 60 basis points of market share year-to-date per Circana.

轉向以固定貨幣計算的總帳單。總體而言，總帳單增加了 6%。 POS 成長了中個位數。根據 Circana 的數據，美泰繼續領先該行業，今年迄今的市佔率增加了 60 個基點。

Looking at performance by category. Dolls grew 24%, driven by Disney Princess and Disney Frozen, Barbie including the movie-related benefit and the global rollout of Monster High. POS for Dolls improved significantly and was in line with shipping. Barbie increased 14% with comparable POS growth. Barbie POS reflects strong gains in toys, benefiting from the theatrical release of the movie and our robust marketing efforts. Mattel outperformed the industry in the Dolls category and gained over 670 basis points of market share year-to-date and Barbie was the #1 Doll property globally per Circana.

按類別查看表現。受迪士尼公主和迪士尼冰雪奇緣、芭比娃娃（包括電影相關福利）以及《精靈高中》全球推出的推動，玩偶增加了 24%。玩偶 POS 顯著改善，與出貨情況一致。與 POS 成長相比，芭比娃娃成長了 14%。芭比 POS 反映了玩具領域的強勁成長，這得益於電影的院線上映和我們強大的行銷努力。美泰兒 (Mattel) 在玩偶類別中的表現優於行業，今年迄今的市場份額獲得了超過 670 個基點，芭比娃娃是 Circana 的全球排名第一的玩偶產品。

Vehicles continued its strong performance, growing 15%, in line with POS. Growth was primarily driven by Hot Wheels die-cast vehicles and new innovation, including the RC and Skate segments. Mattel gained 410 basis points of market share year-to-date in the Vehicles category per Circana. Infant, Toddler and Preschool declined 5%, in line with POS. In spite of the decline, both gross billings and POS showed significant improvements in trend relative to the second quarter. The decline was primarily due to Fisher-Price Imaginext as it wraps theatrical times in the prior year and our Infant business, partly offset by strong growth in Little People.

車輛持續保持強勁表現，成長 15%，與 POS 一致。成長主要由 Hot Wheels 壓鑄車輛和新創新推動，包括 RC 和 Skate 領域。根據 Circana 的數據，今年迄今為止，美泰兒在車輛類別中的市佔率增加了 410 個基點。嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童下降了 5%，與 POS 的數據一致。儘管有所下降，但與第二季相比，總帳單和 POS 均呈現顯著改善趨勢。下降主要是由於費雪Imaginext（因為它結束了上一年的影院放映時間）和我們的嬰兒業務，但部分被《小人物》的強勁增長所抵消。

Mattel outperformed the category gained 50 basis points of market share year-to-date and was the #1 toy company globally in the Infant, Toddler and Preschool category per Circana. Challenger categories in aggregate declined 21%, in line with POS as it comped an exceptionally strong film slate last year, partly offset by growth in both Building Sets and Games. On a regional basis, our strong performance was broad-based. We grew POS and gross billings in each of our regions, excluding the impact of Russia. North America gross billings increased 10% and driven by double-digit gains in Dolls and Vehicles. POS increased low single digits.

美泰今年迄今的表現優於該類別，市佔率增加了 50 個基點，並且是 Circana 嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童類別中全球排名第一的玩具公司。挑戰者類別總計下降了 21%，與 POS 一致，因為它去年的電影陣容異常強勁，但部分被建築套裝和遊戲的成長所抵消。從區域來看，我們的強勁表現是廣泛的。除俄羅斯的影響外，我們每個地區的 POS 和總帳單均有所增長。在玩偶和車輛兩位數成長的推動下，北美地區的總營業額成長了 10%。 POS 成長低個位數。

Year-to-date, Mattel gained market share in North America per Circana. EMEA declined 2%, including a negative 3 percentage point impact from Russia. POS, excluding Russia, significantly outpaced shipping increasing low double digits in the quarter. Latin America grew 5% with POS increasing high single digits. For Circana, Mattel gained market share in Latin America year-to-date, extending our #1 market position.

根據 Circana 報道，今年迄今為止，美泰在北美的市佔率有所增加。歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 2%，其中俄羅斯的影響下降了 3 個百分點。 POS（不包括俄羅斯）在本季的增幅明顯超過了航運，增幅較低，為兩位數。拉丁美洲成長了 5%，其中 POS 增幅高達個位數。對 Circana 而言，美泰今年迄今在拉丁美洲獲得了市場份額，擴大了我們第一大市場的地位。

Asia Pacific increased 18%, driven primarily by growth in Australia and India. POS increased low single digits. Consistent with the end of the second quarter, retail inventories remained below prior year levels. At the end of the third quarter, retail inventory levels in dollars declined by double-digit percentage versus the prior year with weeks of supply down high single digits. The inventory is predominantly current and of good quality. Looking ahead, we believe we are well positioned heading into the holiday season.

亞太地區成長 18%，主要受到澳洲和印度成長的推動。 POS 成長低個位數。與第二季末一致，零售庫存仍低於去年同期水準。第三季末，以美元計算的零售庫存水準與去年同期相比下降了兩位數百分比，供應週數下降了高個位數。庫存主要是最新的且品質良好。展望未來，我們相信我們在進入假期季節時處於有利位置。

As previously discussed, we expect gross billings to return to historical trends with approximately 2/3 of annual shipments in the second half. This is expected to contribute to a high fourth quarter growth rate as we wrap an atypical retailer inventory decline in the prior year. Adjusted gross margin was 51% in the quarter compared to 48.3% in the prior year, an increase of 270 basis points. The increase in adjusted gross margin was driven by favorable mix, primarily the margin accretive benefits related to the Barbie movie added 170 basis points.

如前所述，我們預計下半年總出貨量將恢復到歷史趨勢，約佔年度出貨量的 2/3。由於我們結束了去年非典型的零售商庫存下降，預計這將有助於第四季的高成長率。本季調整後毛利率為 51%，較上年同期的 48.3% 成長 270 個基點。調整後毛利率的成長是由有利的組合推動的，主要是與芭比電影相關的利潤增值效益增加了 170 個基點。

Pricing, which contributed 140 basis points. Savings from the Optimizing for Growth program, which added 130 basis points and cost deflation which added 70 basis points. These positive factors were partly offset by the fixed cost absorption impact from significantly lower production volumes and other supply chain costs, totaling 240 basis points.

定價，貢獻了140個基點。優化成長計畫帶來的節省增加了 130 個基點，而成本通貨緊縮則增加了 70 個基點。這些正面因素被產量大幅下降和其他供應鏈成本造成的固定成本吸收影響部分抵消，總計下降了 240 個基點。

Moving down to P&L. Advertising expenses of $124 million declined 3% compared to the prior year. Looking ahead, we are planning to increase advertising spend in the fourth quarter and to end the full year with advertising as a percentage of net sales comparable to the prior year. Adjusted SG&A increased 8% to $347 million, primarily driven by higher accrued incentive compensation and salary and market-related pay increases partly offset by savings from the Optimizing for Growth program.

向下移動到損益表。廣告費用為 1.24 億美元，較上年下降 3%。展望未來，我們計劃在第四季度增加廣告支出，並在全年結束時將廣告佔淨銷售額的百分比與上年持平。調整後的 SG&A 成長 8%，達到 3.47 億美元，主要是由於應計激勵薪酬和薪資以及市場相關薪資成長的增加，部分被成長優化計畫節省的費用所抵消。

Adjusted operating income was $506 million, an increase of $108 million or 27% compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by net sales growth and adjusted gross margin expansion. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $106 million to $580 million, benefiting from the same factors. Adjusted EPS increased by 32%, ahead of operating income growth, driven by favorable interest costs, a slightly lower adjusted tax rate and a lower share count resulting from our share repurchase activity.

調整後營業收入為 5.06 億美元，比上年增加 1.08 億美元，成長 27%。這一成長主要是由淨銷售額成長和調整後毛利率擴張所推動的。受益於同樣的因素，調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1.06 億美元，達到 5.8 億美元。受有利的利息成本、略低的調整稅率以及股票回購活動導致的股票數量減少的推動，調整後每股收益增長了 32%，領先於營業收入增長。

On a year-to-date basis, cash from operations was a use of $80 million compared to a use of $275 million in the prior year, an improvement of $195 million. The increase was primarily driven by improved working capital performance. Capital expenditures were $118 million compared to $127 million a year ago, and free cash flow was a use of $197 million compared to $402 million in the prior year. On a trailing 12-month basis, we generated $461 million in free cash flow compared to $303 million in the prior year, an increase of $158 million or more than 50%. The increase was primarily driven by cash from operations, benefiting from improved working capital performance, partly offset by higher capital expenditures.

年初至今，營運現金使用量為 8,000 萬美元，與前一年的使用量 2.75 億美元相比，增加了 1.95 億美元。這一增長主要是由於營運資金績效改善所致。資本支出為 1.18 億美元，去年同期為 1.27 億美元；自由現金流使用額為 1.97 億美元，去年同期為 4.02 億美元。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，我們產生了 4.61 億美元的自由現金流，而前一年為 3.03 億美元，增加了 1.58 億美元，增幅超過 50%。這一成長主要是由營運現金推動的，受益於營運資本績效的改善，但部分被資本支出增加所抵銷。

With respect to uses of trailing 12 months free cash flow, we repaid $250 million of debt in the fourth quarter of last year. And in the first 9 months of 2023, repurchased $110 million of our shares. Taking a look at the balance sheet. We continued to improve our financial position. We finished the quarter with a cash balance of $456 million compared to $349 million in the prior year. The increase reflects the free cash flow generated over the trailing 12 months mostly offset by the use of cash to reduce debt and repurchase shares. Total debt declined to [$2.329 billion from $2.574 billion] last year reflecting the repayment of $250 million of debt in the fourth quarter of last year. Accounts receivable increased by $190 million to $1,571 billion due primarily to the increase in net sales.

就過去 12 個月自由現金流的使用而言，我們在去年第四季償還了 2.5 億美元的債務。 2023 年前 9 個月，回購了價值 1.1 億美元的股票。看一下資產負債表。我們的財務狀況持續改善。本季結束時，我們的現金餘額為 4.56 億美元，而去年同期為 3.49 億美元。這一增長反映了過去 12 個月產生的自由現金流，大部分被使用現金減少債務和回購股票所抵消。去年，債務總額從 25.74 億美元下降至 23.29 億美元，反映出去年第四季償還了 2.5 億美元的債務。應收帳款增加 1.9 億美元，達到 15,710 億美元，主要是由於淨銷售額的增加。

We have made significant progress in reducing owned inventory levels. Inventory was $791 million compared to $1,084 billion in the prior year, a reduction of $293 million and a key driver of free cash flow generation. Our leverage ratio was 2.7x at the end of the third quarter. This compares to 3.1x at the end of the second quarter and 2.3x a year ago. We generated $40 million of savings in the quarter under our Optimizing for Growth program.

我們在降低自有庫存水準方面取得了重大進展。與前一年的 10,840 億美元相比，庫存為 7.91 億美元，減少了 2.93 億美元，是自由現金流產生的關鍵驅動力。截至第三季末，我們的槓桿率為 2.7 倍。相比之下，第二季末為 3.1 倍，一年前為 2.3 倍。根據我們的成長優化計劃，本季我們節省了 4000 萬美元。

Since launching the program in 2021, we have achieved cost savings of $297 million. We are now on track to exceed our $300 million goal by the end of 2023. Total estimated cash expenditures to implement the program are expected to be $155 million to $185 million. We are updating our full year 2023 guidance to reflect anticipated upside to our margin and bottom line results. We continue to expect net sales to be comparable to last year in constant currency.

自 2021 年啟動該計劃以來，我們已節省了 2.97 億美元的成本。目前，我們預計在 2023 年底前超越 3 億美元的目標。實施該計畫的現金支出總額預計為 1.55 億至 1.85 億美元。我們正在更新 2023 年全年指引，以反映我們的利潤率和淨利潤結果的預期成長。我們繼續預期以固定匯率計算淨銷售額將與去年相當。

Our sales guidance reflects higher-than-anticipated benefits associated with the Barbie movie offset by the impact of overall toy industry declines. We expect growth in Dolls and Vehicles offset by declines in Infant Toddler and Preschool and in our Challenger categories, in aggregate. And for our power brands, we expect Barbie and Hot Wheels to grow and Fisher-Price to decline. At current spot rates, we expect foreign exchange translation will have a positive impact of approximately 1 percentage point on 2023 net sales. Adjusted gross margin is now expected to be in the range of 47% to 48% compared to our previous expectation of approximately 47% and 45.9% in the prior year.

我們的銷售指引反映出與芭比電影相關的高於預期的收益被整體玩具產業下滑的影響所抵消。我們預計娃娃和車輛的成長將被嬰幼兒和學前兒童以及挑戰者類別的整體下降所抵消。對於我們的強勢品牌，我們預計芭比娃娃和風火輪將成長，而費雪牌將下降。依照目前的即期匯率，我們預期外匯折算將對 2023 年淨銷售額產生約 1 個百分點的正面影響。調整後的毛利率目前預計在 47% 至 48% 之間，而我們先前的預期是去年的約 47% 和 45.9%。

The improved outlook is primarily driven by the incremental margin benefit associated with the Barbie movie and related consumer products upside. We are raising our guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $925 million to $975 million and adjusted EPS to $1.15 to $1.25 compared to the prior ranges of $900 million to $950 million, and $1.10 to $1.20, respectively. Free cash flow is still expected to exceed $400 million.

前景的改善主要是由於芭比電影和相關消費品的上漲所帶來的利潤增量所帶來的。我們將調整後 EBITDA 的指引上調至 9.25 億美元至 9.75 億美元，調整後每股收益上調至 1.15 至 1.25 美元，而之前的範圍分別為 9 億至 9.5 億美元和 1.10 至 1.20 美元。自由現金流預計仍將超過 4 億美元。

Our guidance implies strong fourth quarter performance in terms of top line growth and gross margin expansion compared to the prior year. As we previously stated, our annual guidance includes an increase in SG&A of approximately $100 million as incentive compensation returns to targeted levels, most of which will impact the fourth quarter. Our guidance also includes the forecast benefits related to the Barbie movie. The total impact from our direct movie participation, movie-related toy sales and consumer products is expected to generate more than $125 million in sales with a blended operating income margin exceeding 60%. The majority of this benefit is reflected in our third quarter results.

我們的指導意味著與前一年相比，第四季在營收成長和毛利率擴張方面表現強勁。正如我們之前所說，我們的年度指導方針包括隨著激勵薪酬恢復到目標水平，SG&A 增加約 1 億美元，其中大部分將影響第四季度。我們的指導還包括與芭比電影相關的預測收益。我們直接參與電影、電影相關玩具銷售和消費品的總影響預計將產生超過 1.25 億美元的銷售額，綜合營業利潤率將超過 60%。這項收益的大部分反映在我們第三季的業績中。

We are operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment with higher volatility that may impact consumer demand. The guidance considers what the company is aware of today, but remains subject to further market volatility, unexpected disruptions and other macroeconomic risks and uncertainties. In closing, our performance in the third quarter was comprehensive with top line growth, market share gains, adjusted gross margin expansion and significant free cash flow improvement. We expect a strong holiday season and are well positioned to achieve our full year guidance.

我們正處於充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中，波動性較高，可能會影響消費者需求。該指引考慮了公司目前所了解的情況，但仍會受到進一步的市場波動、意外中斷以及其他宏觀經濟風險和不確定性的影響。最後，我們第三季的業績非常全面，包括營收成長、市佔率成長、調整後毛利率擴張和自由現金流顯著改善。我們預計假期季節將會表現強勁，並且有能力實現我們的全年指引。

And now I will turn it over to the operator.

現在我將把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Arpine Kocharyan 線路。

Obviously, very strong numbers for the quarter against a pretty weak industry. Your Q4 guidance implies kind of cautious out to outlook in terms of flow-through. And you mentioned kind of increased advertising spend, and I know that SG&A is up also year-over-year given accrued incentive comp, et cetera. But revenues are still [implied] to be up about 18% on a constant currency basis when I do the math of flat sales. Maybe if you could play out why such strong revenue isn't flowing through a little bit better given sort of Barbie's strength and consumer product strength that is probably also higher margin? And then generally, if you could just give kind of an overview of what you're seeing with the consumer as we head into Q4. That would be very, very helpful?

顯然，與相當疲軟的行業相比，本季的數據非常強勁。您的第四季度指導意味著對流量前景持謹慎態度。你提到了廣告支出的增加，我知道考慮到應計的激勵補償等，SG&A 也逐年上升。但當我對銷售額持平進行計算時，以固定匯率計算，營收仍[暗示]成長約 18%。也許你能弄清楚，考慮到芭比娃娃的實力和消費產品的實力（可能也有更高的利潤率），為什麼如此強勁的收入沒有更好地流動？一般來說，當我們進入第四季度時，您能否概述一下您在消費者中看到的情況。這會非常非常有幫助嗎？

Sure, Arpine. I'll start with that. I'll first say that the majority of the movie related benefits is being recognized. And so when we talk about our full year guidance, it does imply accelerated top line growth in Q4, and that's because we expect shipment trends to revert to historical patterns, and we're wrapping an atypical retail inventory decline in the prior year.

當然，阿爾平。我將從那開始。我首先要說的是，大多數與電影相關的好處都得到了認可。因此，當我們談論全年指引時，它確實意味著第四季度的收入加速成長，這是因為我們預計出貨趨勢將恢復到歷史模式，並且我們正在結束上一年非典型的零售庫存下降。

As we said in our remarks, we're also expecting growth in consumer demand. We've got more shelf space. We're going to spend more on advertising. We've got new innovation, greater representation in catalogs so that in terms of the top line. The guidance also implies significant gross margin expansion compared to last year and last year being negatively impacted by inventory management costs. And as you noted, SG&A is expected to increase as we wrap below target incentive compensation levels in the prior year. But net-net, our guidance implies a very strong Q4 bottom line growth.

正如我們在演講中所說，我們也預期消費者需求將會成長。我們有更多的貨架空間。我們將在廣告上投入更多。我們有新的創新，在目錄中具有更大的代表性，因此就營收而言。指引也意味著，與去年相比，毛利率大幅成長，去年受到庫存管理成本的負面影響。正如您所指出的，隨著我們低於前一年的目標激勵薪酬水平，SG&A 預計會增加。但淨淨來看，我們的指導意味著第四季的利潤成長非常強勁。

And if Ynon could comment on -- maybe, yes.

如果伊農可以評論——也許，是的。

Yes. Yes, I'll comment on the toy industry. So we saw the industry declining year-to-date and in the third quarter, and we now expect the industry to decline mid-single digits for the full year. But remember, this follows the industry being up 22% from 2019 to 2022, reaching an all-time high.

是的。是的，我要評論一下玩具業。因此，我們看到該行業今年迄今和第三季都在下滑，現在我們預計該行業將全年出現中個位數下滑。但請記住，在此之前，該行業從 2019 年到 2022 年增長了 22%，達到歷史新高。

So we're very confident about the long-term growth trajectory of the industry. But this year, coming off that high in a challenging economy is not to be surprised by. In that context, just important to reiterate, while the industry is expected to be down, our POS is expected to be up for the year. It was up in the third quarter. It was up year-to-date. We expect it to be up in the holiday season, up in the fourth quarter and up for the full year. So we are very well positioned competitively and to see us continuing to perform well.

所以我們對這個產業的長期成長軌跡非常有信心。但今年在充滿挑戰的經濟狀況下取得如此高的成績並不令人意外。在這種情況下，需要重申的是，雖然產業預計會下降，但我們的 POS 預計今年會成長。第三季度有所上升。這是年初至今。我們預計假日季、第四季和全年都會上漲。因此，我們在競爭中處於非常有利的位置，並且看到我們繼續表現良好。

We did mention that heading into the fourth quarter, we have a very strong broad-based lineup of innovative toys across multiple categories, play patterns, price points, for both our own brands as well as third-party brands in Universal Trolls and Disney Wish. So all in all, expect to continue to outpace the industry and gain market share in the fourth quarter and the full year.

我們確實提到，進入第四季度，我們擁有非常強大、廣泛的創新玩具陣容，涵蓋多個類別、遊戲模式、價格點，包括我們自己的品牌以及 Universal Trolls 和 Disney Wish 等第三方品牌。總而言之，預計第四季度和全年將繼續超越行業並獲得市場份額。

Your next question comes from the line of Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley.

你的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的梅根亞歷山大。

I guess, maybe can we touch on that point Ynon on for a bit in terms of what you're seeing quarter-to-date from a POS perspective and with the expectation that it's up in the fourth quarter. I guess, how much of that is driven by ongoing strength in Barbie? And are you kind of expecting the rest of your categories to be more in line with the industry?

我想，也許我們可以談談 Ynon 提到的這一點，從 POS 的角度來看，您在本季度至今所看到的情況，並預計第四季度會有所上升。我想，這其中有多少是由芭比娃娃的持續強勢所推動的？您是否希望其他類別更符合行業？

It's still early in the quarter, but quarter-to-date POS is positive for Mattel. And our full year guidance assumes growth in consumer demand for our products in the fourth quarter and the full year. When we talk POS, this is not the movie participation, box office participation. This is in toys. So we are performing well, and this is not just Barbie. The Dolls category as a whole is performing well.

雖然現在還處於本季初期，但本季至今的 POS 對美泰來說是積極的。我們的全年指引假設第四季和全年消費者對我們產品的需求成長。當我們談論POS時，這不是電影參與、票房參與。這是在玩具中。所以我們表現得很好，而且這不僅僅是芭比娃娃。娃娃品類整體表現良好。

Disney Princess and Frozen is doing well. Monster High is doing very well. Hot Wheels grew 19% in the quarter on track to achieve sixth record year with more innovation and very exciting product line. So this is not just about Barbie. It's broad-based strength, not in every part. I mean, we declined in Fisher-Price. So this -- there are some areas where we still have challenges. But all in all, the portfolio as a whole is very strong. And we believe that competitively, we are very well positioned, and the fundamentals of the company are very strong.

迪士尼公主和冰雪奇緣表現良好。 Monster High 表現非常好。 Hot Wheels 在本季度增長了 19%，憑藉更多的創新和非常令人興奮的產品線，有望創下第六個創紀錄的年份。所以這不僅僅是芭比娃娃的事。這是基礎廣泛的優勢，而不是每個部分。我的意思是，我們拒絕了費雪價格。因此，在某些領域我們仍然面臨挑戰。但總而言之，整個投資組合非常強大。我們相信，在競爭中，我們處於非常有利的位置，而且公司的基本面非常強勁。

Okay. And I guess maybe on the back of that, how would you characterize the retail environment today? Maybe more specifically, can you expand on what inventory levels look like and stock levels for your brands? Are you seeing retailers replenish in line with POS or taking a more cautious stance given the macro?

好的。我想也許在此基礎上，您會如何描述當今的零售環境？也許更具體地說，您能否詳細介紹一下您的品牌的庫存水準和庫存水準？您是否認為零售商會根據 POS 進行補貨，或考慮到宏觀形勢而採取更謹慎的立場？

Sure. In terms of retail inventories, I'll start by saying, in the third quarter, gross billings and POS were fairly well aligned and retail inventories remain below prior year levels. So at the end of Q3 retail inventory levels in dollars were down by double-digit percentage. And as we said, predominantly current and of good quality. We're working very closely with our retailers and believe we are very well positioned heading into the holiday season with respect to those inventory levels.

當然。就零售庫存而言，我首先要說的是，第三季的總帳單和 POS 相當一致，零售庫存仍低於去年同期水準。因此，在第三季末，以美元計算的零售庫存水準下降了兩位數百分比。正如我們所說，主要是當前的且品質好的。我們正在與零售商密切合作，並相信在進入假期季節時，我們在庫存水平方面處於非常有利的位置。

And Megan, just to [club] and following Arpine's question earlier, we very long on the toy industry, industry is resilient, notwithstanding the decline this year, we've had over 10 years of growth. And we believe as a category, as a sector, it has very strong fundamentals in -- playing into basic human behavior of play, being a strategic category for retailers, attractive and affordable price points and an industry that continues to perform and show resilience, especially in challenging economic times.

梅根，剛才問[俱樂部]，接著阿平早些時候提出的問題，我們非常看好玩具行業，該行業具有彈性，儘管今年有所下滑，但我們已經實現了 10 多年的增長。我們相信，作為一個類別，作為一個部門，它具有非常強大的基礎——融入人類的基本遊戲行為，成為零售商的戰略類別，具有吸引力和負擔得起的價格點，以及一個持續表現和表現出彈性的產業，尤其是在充滿挑戰的經濟時期。

Your next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛的史蒂芬‧拉斯奇克 (Stephen Laszczyk)。

Maybe on Hot Wheels, the category or the brand posted impressive year-over-year growth in the quarter north of 20%. Could you maybe unpack the drivers of that underlying performance? How much of it was category strength versus market share gains versus perhaps just timing of orders coming through in the third quarter?

也許風火輪這個類別或品牌在本季度的同比增長超過 20%，令人印象深刻。您能否解開潛在性能的驅動因素？其中有多少是品類實力與市佔率成長以及第三季訂單完成時間的關係？

So Stephen, vehicles continue to perform very strongly growing 15%, in line with POS. We continue to gain share versus kind of 410 basis points. So meaningful growth in already from a strong baseline for Mattel. The growth was primarily driven by die-cast vehicles and new innovation. We talked a lot about the RC line and skate segment. So that's great to see new parts of the category growing. We also continue to leverage the core die-cast vehicles, we target both kids and adult collectors, that's another segment that is growing well.

因此，史蒂芬，車輛繼續表現強勁，成長了 15%，與 POS 一致。我們的份額持續增加，漲幅為 410 個基點。美泰已經在強勁的基礎上實現瞭如此有意義的成長。這一增長主要是由壓鑄車輛和新創新推動的。我們談論了很多關於 RC 線和滑冰部分的內容。所以很高興看到該類別的新部分不斷增長。我們也繼續利用核心壓鑄車輛，我們的目標客戶是兒童和成人收藏家，這是另一個成長良好的細分市場。

We continue to innovate and expand into additional segments this fall, including the [Racing Rivals] the new character baseline, which is also very innovative and exciting to see. So this is all driving incredible performance. And this is before the movie that is still being developed and is coming out. And we are now developing. We hope will be an exciting project. Hot Wheels live action movie produced by JJ Abrams, who, as you know, is one of the most prolific filmmakers of generation. He is a great partner, very excited. And there's more -- a lot more to expect from Hot Wheels, a very strong driver.

今年秋天，我們將繼續創新並擴展到其他細分市場，包括[賽車對手]新的角色基線，這也是非常創新且令人興奮的。所以這一切都推動了令人難以置信的性能。這是在電影仍在開發和上映之前。我們現在正在開發。我們希望這將是一個令人興奮的項目。風火輪真人電影由 J·J·艾布拉姆斯製作，如您所知，他是這一代最多產的電影製片人之一。他是個很棒的合作夥伴，非常興奮。對於風火輪這個非常強大的車手來說，還有更多值得期待的事情。

I also want to mention Matchbox, an important part of the Vehicles category, which did well in the quarter, gross billings were stable, but POS was up double digits, driven by strength in the die-cast segment. And there's another movie that we're developing for Matchbox with Skydance, which is the producer of the Mission Impossible series and Top Gun. So a great -- another great partner, and we are very excited also about this project in the making.

我還想提一下火柴盒，它是車輛類別的重要組成部分，在本季度表現良好，總銷售額穩定，但在壓鑄細分市場的強勁推動下，POS 增長了兩位數。我們正在與 Skydance 一起為《火柴盒》製作另一部電影，Skydance 是《碟中諜》系列和《壯志凌雲》的製片人。這是一個偉大的合作夥伴，也是另一個偉大的合作夥伴，我們對這個正在製作的項目也感到非常興奮。

Great. And then just one for Anthony. Anthony, on free cash flow. Is there any reason why the extra $25 million in EBITDA guide for this year wouldn't flow down to free cash flow with the outlook for CapEx remaining in the same, perhaps something on working cap worth going out? Or should we expect that to flow-through?

偉大的。然後只有一個給安東尼。安東尼，關於自由現金流。在資本支出前景保持不變的情況下，今年 EBITDA 指南中額外的 2500 萬美元不會流向自由現金流，這是否有任何原因，也許是值得投入的工作上限？或者我們應該期望它能夠流通嗎？

Yes, it's pretty much dependent on the timing of the collections related to the upside around the Barbie movie, and it's hard to say exactly when that's going to come through. So that's the reason that we didn't change that.

是的，這在很大程度上取決於與芭比電影的上行相關的系列的時間安排，而且很難確切地說何時會實現。這就是我們沒有改變這一點的原因。

Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的詹姆斯哈迪曼 (James Hardiman)。

So if I think about sort of the implied fourth quarter guidance in that -- on the revenue side in that mid- to high teens, is there any way to think about what the growth in POS needs to be to allow for that reported number in the fourth quarter?

因此，如果我考慮隱含的第四季度指引——在中高青少年的收入方面，是否有任何方法可以考慮 POS 的成長需要多少才能實現報告的數位第四季？

Yes. We haven't broken down to that level, but we had said that we expect growth in consumer demand in the fourth quarter for Mattel. We expect to outpace the industry. But we do expect gross billings to be ahead of POS and that's because we're wrapping that retail inventory decline in the prior year. But we're expecting a strong fourth quarter with respect to consumer demand or POS.

是的。我們還沒有細分到這個水平，但我們曾說過，我們預計美泰第四季的消費者需求將會成長。我們期望超越行業。但我們確實預計總帳單將領先 POS，這是因為我們正在結束上一年零售庫存的下降。但我們預計第四季度消費者需求或 POS 將會強勁。

Got it. That makes sense. And it sort of leads to my next question. Obviously, we haven't even gotten to the holiday season. So a lot of the 2024 color is way too early. But if I just think about 2023 right? It was a tale of 2 halves. First half, there was a lot of inventory drawdown. And so you were -- your sales levels were way worse than POS. Second half is really about Barbie and the benefit that you're getting there. Is there any way to compare those 2 effects as we think about lapping them? I think the big concern is that as you get to $125 million of headwind that it's going to be real hard to lap that for the year, but just trying to make sure I understand the moving pieces?

知道了。這就說得通了。這引出了我的下一個問題。顯然，我們還沒到假期。所以 2024 年的很多顏色都還太早。但如果我只考慮 2023 年，對嗎？這是一個分為兩半的故事。上半年，庫存大幅下降。所以你的銷售水準比 POS 差很多。後半部主要是關於芭比娃娃以及你從中獲得的好處。當我們考慮研磨它們時，有什麼方法可以比較這兩種效果嗎？我認為最大的擔憂是，當你遇到 1.25 億美元的逆風時，今年要完成這一目標將非常困難，但只是想確保我理解其中的變化？

Sure. A couple of points there. I would say that the year is kind of unfolding as we expected. And we did expect 2023 to revert to normal shipping patterns. 1/3 in the first half, 2/3 in the second half. That is what we're seeing, and that led to declines in the first half growth in the second half with accelerated growth in Q4, given what we're wrapping. In terms of the Barbie movie and economics, we expect this to be a catalyst for the brand and to benefit the franchise for quarters and years to come. So we don't necessarily view it as, hey, something. We're just going to wrap, so to speak.

當然。有幾點。我想說，這一年的發展正如我們所預期的。我們確實預計 2023 年將恢復正常的運輸模式。上半場1/3，下半場2/3。這就是我們所看到的情況，鑑於我們正在總結的內容，這導致上半年成長下降，下半年成長加速。就芭比電影和經濟效益而言，我們預計這將成為品牌的催化劑，並使特許經營權在未來幾季和幾年內受益。所以我們不一定會將其視為某種東西。可以這麼說，我們只是要結束。

Your next question comes from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson.

你的下一個問題來自 Linda Bolton-Weiser 和 D.A.戴維森。

Yes, I was wondering if you could update us on your earlier comment about your theory that consumers were not as strong in their buying behaviors maybe in the summer because they were saving up in order to spend more for Christmas. Can you update us on? Do you have any survey work or anything that, update us on how consumers might more recently be thinking about things?

是的，我想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您之前對您的理論的評論，即消費者可能在夏天的購買行為不那麼強烈，因為他們正在存錢以便在聖誕節花更多的錢。你能給我們更新一下嗎？您是否有任何調查工作或任何可以讓我們了解消費者最近如何看待事物的最新資訊？

Yes. We don't have any new survey to point to, but I would say things are unfolding as we had expected. Q4 to date, POS is positive for us. And we continue to expect that consumers will revert back to more historical shopping patterns and make their purchases closer to the holiday season. And with that, we would expect POS to accelerate as we progress through the fourth quarter.

是的。我們沒有任何新的調查可以指出，但我想說事情的發展就像我們預期的那樣。迄今為止，第四季度，POS 對我們來說是積極的。我們仍然預期消費者將恢復到更歷史的購物模式，並在接近假日季節時進行購買。因此，我們預計 POS 將隨著第四季度的進展而加速發展。

Okay. And I was also wondering if you could say whether or not you looked at the Melissa & Doug company that was sold. Did you consider looking at that or why or why not?

好的。我還想知道您是否可以說您是否看過被出售的 Melissa & Doug 公司。您是否考慮過考慮這一點，或者為什麼或為什麼不考慮？

Yes. I would say, look, we don't really comment on competitor M&A. We are very focused on executing our capital deployment priorities, which we've talked about in terms of investing to drive organic growth, maintaining net leverage ratio of 2x to 2.5x in our investment-grade rating, and that gives us flexibility to consider M&A as well as share buyback. We're very happy with our position in the ITPS category. We are a leader and the #1 toy company globally. And the surprise is the #1 property in the category. So we love our position and the prospects for our business.

是的。我想說，看，我們並沒有真正評論競爭對手的併購。我們非常專注於執行我們的資本部署優先事項，我們在投資推動有機增長、在投資級評級中保持 2 倍至 2.5 倍的淨槓桿率方面談到了這一點，這使我們能夠靈活地考慮併購還有股票回購。我們對自己在 ITPS 類別中的地位感到非常滿意。我們是領導者，也是全球排名第一的玩具公司。令人驚訝的是該類別中排名第一的房產。因此，我們熱愛我們的地位和業務前景。

Your next question comes from the line of Drew Crum with Stifel.

您的下一個問題來自 Drew Crum 和 Stifel 的線路。

Okay. Anthony, on adjusted gross margin, any notable swing factors to consider for 4Q? And just want to confirm that 4Q gross margin should decline quarter-on-quarter versus 3Q?

好的。安東尼，關於調整後的毛利率，第四季有什麼值得注意的波動因素需要考慮嗎？只是想確認第四季的毛利率應該會比第三季季減？

Yes. In terms of commenting relative to the prior year as we think about fourth quarter, and when you do the math, it implies pretty significant gross margin expansion in Q4 versus 2022 and there a couple of reasons for that. One is the prior year was about 43%, and it was negatively impacted from considerably significant inventory management costs. So we're wrapping that. And as I think about the current year, we'll benefit from scale from our Optimizing Growth program as well as cost deflation. We did see some deflation in Q3 and would expect to see additional deflation in Q4. So that gives us confidence in terms of getting to that implied fourth quarter gross margin, which is more in line with the historical levels as well.

是的。當我們考慮第四季度時，就相對於上一年的評論而言，當你進行數學計算時，這意味著第四季度的毛利率與2022 年相比將出現相當大的增長，其中有幾個原因。其中之一是前一年約為 43%，這是受到相當大的庫存管理成本的負面影響。所以我們正在包裝它。我認為今年，我們將受益於優化成長計畫的規模以及成本通貨緊縮。我們確實在第三季看到了一些通貨緊縮，並預計第四季會出現更多通貨緊縮。因此，這讓我們對達到隱含的第四季毛利率充滿信心，這也更符合歷史水準。

Got it. Okay. And then just to circle back to the toy industry and your outlook now down mid-single digits for the year. I think previously, you were assuming down slightly. Is this adjustment based on a weaker 3Q relative to your expectations? Is it something you're anticipating for 4Q or a combination of the two? And did I hear you correctly, Anthony, that you expect POS to accelerate in 4Q over 3Q? I just want to clarify that.

知道了。好的。然後回到玩具行業，您對今年的展望現在下降到中個位數。我認為之前，你的假設略有下降。此次調整是否基於第三季較您預期疲軟的情況？這是您對第四季的期望還是兩者的結合？安東尼，我沒聽錯吧，您預計 POS 在第四季將比第三季加速？我只是想澄清這一點。

Let me clarify that quickly. So what I said is fourth quarter to date POS is positive. And from that level, we expect to accelerate. It wasn't relative to 3Q.

讓我快速澄清一下。所以我所說的是第四季度迄今為止 POS 是積極的。從這個水平來看，我們預計會加速。這與第三季無關。

Yes. And Drew, what we're seeing is year-to-date decline that was more than we expected at the start of the year. We believe it's primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, inflation, higher interest rates and other elements that we all know and read about an experience. We believe consumers are returning to normalized shopping patterns closer to the holiday season. So we expect to see some of that playing out in the fourth quarter. We believe that the industry and our retail partners are well prepared for the holiday season. But that said, we now expect, given the performance to date, the industry to be down mid-single digits.

是的。德魯，我們看到的是年初至今的下降幅度超過了我們年初的預期。我們認為，這主要是由宏觀經濟因素、通貨膨脹、利率上升以及我們都知道並讀到的其他因素所推動的。我們相信，臨近假期季節，消費者將回歸正常的購物模式。因此，我們預計會在第四季度看到其中的一些結果。我們相信，業界和我們的零售合作夥伴已為假期做好了充分準備。但話雖如此，鑑於迄今為止的表現，我們現在預計該行業將下降中個位數。

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Handler with ROTH MKM.

您的下一個問題來自 Eric Handler 和 ROTH MKM 的線路。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about your movie expectations. Obviously, a huge success with Barbie. And I imagine that makes it easier to greenlight some additional films. Obviously, Hollywood is closed right now because of the strikes. But do you get -- should we be thinking about maybe it could be sooner than later before we see the next Mattel brand movies coming out? Or how should we think about that?

我想知道您是否可以談談您對電影的期望。顯然，芭比娃娃取得了巨大的成功。我想這會讓一些額外的電影更容易獲得批准。顯然，好萊塢現在因為罷工而關閉。但你是否明白——我們是否應該考慮一下，也許我們遲早會看到下一部美泰品牌電影上映？或者說我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes, Eric, the vision from the outset was to collaborate with leading filmmakers, to make standout quality movies based on our iconic brands that will resonate in culture and appeal to global audiences. And I think it's safe to say that we managed to achieve that with this movie. And there is no question that the success of Barbie, repositioned Mattel as an important player in Hollywood. The strength of our brands and cultural resonance of our franchises is an important factor playing outside of the Toy aisle and appealing to very broad audiences. We demonstrated our ability to attract, collaborate partner and amplify top creative talent.

是的，艾瑞克，從一開始的願景就是與領先的電影製作人合作，根據我們的標誌性品牌製作出品質卓越的電影，這些電影將在文化中引起共鳴並吸引全球觀眾。我認為可以肯定地說，我們透過這部電影實現了這一目標。毫無疑問，芭比娃娃的成功使美泰兒重新成為好萊塢的重要參與者。我們品牌的實力和特許經營的文化共鳴是在玩具領域之外發揮作用並吸引非常廣泛的受眾的重要因素。我們展現了吸引、合作夥伴和擴大頂尖創意人才的能力。

And the other dimension that people didn't really fully appreciate and frankly, we also, to some degree, were not -- didn't fully recognized until it actually happened is our marketing capability outside of the toy aisle. We're a company -- we are a creative company. We're an innovative company, but we are also experts in demand creation. And we generate year in and year out, billions worth of demand to our product from the stock. Yet here what we did, we leveraged our capabilities and our retail reach and expertise to promote and market the movie together with Warner Brothers, who did an excellent job, but we truly amplify that and turn it into a cultural phenomenon.

人們並沒有真正完全理解的另一個方面，坦白說，在某種程度上，我們也沒有完全認識到這一點，直到它真正發生為止，那就是我們在玩具管道之外的行銷能力。我們是一家公司—我們是一家創意公司。我們是一家創新公司，但我們也是創造需求的專家。年復一年，我們的庫存產品產生了價值數十億美元的需求。然而，我們所做的，是利用我們的能力、零售範圍和專業知識，與華納兄弟一起宣傳和營銷這部電影，華納兄弟做得非常出色，但我們真正放大了這一點，並將其變成了一種文化現象。

So those assets, relationships and capabilities make us an attractive player. And we believe that the success of the Barbie movie for all of those reasons will accelerate our strategy and not just in movies, but in other verticals given the strength of our brands and the fact that they resonate so strongly in culture. So we're very excited to be where we are. Clearly, it was a breakthrough quarter for our entertainment strategy, and we expect that it will help us accelerate things in the coming quarters.

因此，這些資產、關係和能力使我們成為一個有吸引力的參與者。我們相信，由於所有這些原因，芭比娃娃電影的成功將加速我們的策略，不僅在電影方面，而且在其他垂直領域，因為我們品牌的實力以及它們在文化中產生如此強烈的共鳴。所以我們很高興能到達現在的位置。顯然，這是我們娛樂策略的突破性季度，我們預計它將幫助我們在未來幾季加速發展。

Your next question is from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Chris Horvers。

So my question is, in the gross margin, there was 170 bps related to the Barbie movie. Can you talk about how -- what that broke down in terms of box office participation versus the toy sales in the merchandise -- third-party merchandise? And how are you thinking about that benefit in the fourth quarter?

所以我的問題是，在毛利率中，有 170 個基點與芭比電影有關。您能否談談第三方商品的票房參與度與商品中的玩具銷售之間的關係如何？您如何看待第四季的收益？

Sure. We're not going to break it down to that level, but let me comment on the impact. So within our gross margin bridge you saw a 170 basis point mix benefit. That's not all Barbie related, but it's primarily related to our direct movie participation, movie-related toy sales and consumer products, all kind of bundled together. Also, what we did say is for the full year, we expect those 3 items to deliver more than $125 million in sales with a blended operating income margin of over 60%. And the majority of all that was recognized in Q3 and probably with a skew more towards the movie relative to the other items.

當然。我們不會將其分解到這個級別，但讓我評論一下其影響。因此，在我們的毛利率橋樑中，您看到了 170 個基點的混合效益。這並不全與芭比有關，但主要與我們直接參與電影、與電影相關的玩具銷售和消費品有關，所有這些都捆綁在一起。此外，我們確實說過，對於全年而言，我們預計這 3 個產品的銷售額將超過 1.25 億美元，綜合營業利潤率將超過 60%。其中大部分在第三季得到認可，相對於其他項目，可能更傾向於電影。

So as we think about the fourth quarter, how are you thinking about the sort of specific Barbie movie lift in terms of the top line and margin perspective, the participation point goes down, but are you largely sold through directly -- toys directly related to the movie? And would you expect the merchandise portion to accelerate?

因此，當我們考慮第四季度時，您如何看待芭比娃娃電影在營收和利潤方面的具體提升，參與點下降，但您主要是透過直接銷售 - 與玩具直接相關的玩具電影？您預計商品部分會加速嗎？

Yes. I would say less margin accretion related to these items in Q4 than Q3.

是的。我想說的是，第四季與這些項目相關的利潤成長比第三季少。

Your last question today comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America.

您今天的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的傑森哈斯 (Jason Haas)。

I'm curious if you could help size up how much of a headwinds destocking was to revenue in the first half of the year? The reason I ask is just because as we're thinking through our models for next year is there an embedded uplift to revenue just because you'll be [lapping] over that destocking? Or is it the case that the reason there was that destocking was because there was a restocking in the first half of 2022. So it was really more of a return to normal. Trying to figure out if there's like an embedded revenue upside and what that could stay be for next year?

我很好奇您是否可以幫忙估算今年上半年去庫存的逆風對收入的影響有多大？我之所以問這個問題，是因為當我們考慮明年的模型時，是否會因為你會[重複]去庫存而導致收入的內在增長？或者說，去庫存的原因是因為2022年上半年有補貨，所以實際上更多的是回歸正常。試圖弄清楚是否存在嵌入式收入上升空間以及明年可能會保持什麼？

It's very difficult to say in sort of the impact in 2024. But you're right, in the first half of 2023, we saw for most of the inventory correction happened at retail. And in the context of our full year guidance, it's 3 to 4 points of headwind. Again, most of that occurred in the first half of 2023. And depending on what retailers do going into 2024, again, sitting here today, right? It's hard to say that there will be a bounce back relative to that destocking.

很難說 2024 年的影響。但你是對的，在 2023 年上半年，我們看到大部分庫存調整發生在零售領域。在我們全年指導的背景下，這是 3 到 4 個點的逆風。同樣，大部分發生在 2023 年上半年。這取決於零售商在 2024 年做什麼，今天坐在這裡，對嗎？很難說相對於去庫存會出現反彈。

Got it. That's helpful. And then when I look at Barbie in the first half of the year for worldwide gross billings excluding -- just excluding FX, it's down a little over 20% or so in the first half of the year. And then we saw in 3Q, it went up 14% in the quarter. Is it fair to assume that a lot of that acceleration was driven by the Barbie movie. I'm trying to understand if the Barbie movie did drive that halo effect to all Barbie toys, not just the movie-related SKUs. The concern being there that you may have to lap that next year since you don't have another major motion picture for Barbie. But I'm curious, I don't know if there were promotions that shifted or other things to consider and maybe it just wasn't all the movie.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後，當我查看芭比娃娃今年上半年的全球總收入（不包括外匯）時，上半年下降了 20% 左右。然後我們在第三季看到，該季度上漲了 14%。可以公平地假設，這種加速很大程度上是由芭比娃娃電影推動的嗎？我想了解芭比電影是否確實為所有芭比玩具帶來了光環效應，而不僅僅是與電影相關的 SKU。人們擔心明年你可能不得不拍這部電影，因為你沒有另一部芭比娃娃的主要電影。但我很好奇，我不知道是否有促銷活動改變或其他需要考慮的事情，也許這並不是電影的全部。

Yes. I think the way to think about Q3 and Barbie, first, in terms of the 14% increase in gross billings, I would say that's primarily attributable to the movie related items. But when you think about POS, which is up low double digits as well, right? That's primarily driven by the improvement in consumer demand around toys.

是的。我認為思考第三季和芭比娃娃的方式，首先，就總收入成長 14% 而言，我認為這主要歸因於電影相關項目。但當你想到 POS 時，它的價格也上漲了兩位數，對嗎？這主要是由消費者對玩具的需求改善所推動的。

And as we think about the impact of the movie, we believe it's going to have a long-lasting effect in terms of broadening Barbie's fan base, right? And that will be an important contributor to the brand. It's really part of our long-term franchise management strategy. And with respect to 2023 in aggregate, right, we expect Barbie to grow in Q4 and for it to be positive on a full year basis, which is part of the guidance that we updated today as well.

當我們思考這部電影的影響時，我們相信它將對擴大芭比娃娃的粉絲基礎產生持久的影響，對吧？這將成為該品牌的重要貢獻者。這確實是我們長期特許經營管理策略的一部分。就 2023 年的總體而言，我們預計芭比娃娃將在第四季度實現增長，並在全年基礎上實現積極增長，這也是我們今天更新的指導的一部分。

This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I turn the call back to Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO.

我們今天的問答部分就到此結束。我將電話轉回給董事長兼執行長 Ynon Kreiz。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your questions. I would like to conclude the call by expressing our hope for the safety of Israeli and Palestinian children, children and families caught in the Israel-Hamas war. Since the attacks of October 7, the Mattel Children's Foundation has been focused on humanitarian work, including cash and toy donations to shelters and hospitals to support children who are suffering.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家提出的問題。在結束這次呼籲時，我謹表達我們對陷入以色列-哈馬斯戰爭的以色列和巴勒斯坦兒童、兒童和家庭安全的希望。自 10 月 7 日襲擊以來，美泰兒兒童基金會一直專注於人道主義工作，包括向避難所和醫院捐贈現金和玩具，以支持遭受苦難的兒童。

On a personal note, I would like also to thank all of those who have reached out to me directly to express their concern and condolences. We wish for a swift resolution to the war and more peaceful times in the future. And now I'll turn the call back to Dave.

就我個人而言，我還要感謝所有直接與我聯繫以表達關切和哀悼的人。我們希望戰爭能盡快解決，未來更和平。現在我將把電話轉回戴夫。

Thank you, Ynon. The replay of this call will be available via webcast beginning at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The webcast link can be found in the Events and Presentations section of our Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com. Thank you for participating in today's call.

謝謝你，伊農。本次電話會議的重播將於晚上 8:30 開始透過網路直播進行。今天東部時間。網路廣播連結可以在我們公司網站 Corporate.mattel.com 投資者部分的活動和演示部分找到。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。