Mattel Inc (MAT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good day. My name is Abby, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mattel, Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，美好的一天。我叫艾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加美泰公司 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

Thank you, and I will now turn the conference over to Mr. David Zbojniewicz, Head of Investor Relations. You may begin.

謝謝大家，我現在將會議交給投資者關係主管 David Zbojniewicz 先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are Ynon Kreiz, Mattel's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Anthony DiSilvestro, Mattel's Chief Financial Officer. As you know, this afternoon, we reported Mattel's 2023 fourth quarter and full year financial results. We will begin today's call with Ynon and Anthony providing commentary on our results, after which, we will provide some time for questions. To help supplement our discussion today, we have provided you with a slide presentation.

謝謝接線員，大家下午好。今天與我一起出席的還有美泰董事長兼執行長 Ynon Kreiz；和美泰財務長安東尼·迪西爾維斯特羅(Anthony DiSilvestro)。如您所知，今天下午，我們報告了美泰 2023 年第四季度和全年財務業績。我們將首先由伊農和安東尼對我們的結果發表評論，然後我們將提供一些提問時間。為了幫助補充我們今天的討論，我們為您提供了幻燈片簡報。

Our discussion, slide presentation and earnings release may reference non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted gross profit and adjusted gross margin; adjusted other selling and administrative expenses; adjusted operating income or loss and adjusted operating income or loss margin; adjusted earnings per share; adjusted tax rate; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization or EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA; free cash flow; free cash flow conversion; leverage ratio; net debt; and constant currency.

我們的討論、幻燈片簡報和收益發布可能會參考非公認會計準則財務指標，包括調整後毛利和調整後毛利率；調整其他銷售和管理費用；調整後的營業收入或損失以及調整後的營業收入或損失率；調整後每股收益；調整後的稅率；息稅折舊攤提前利潤或 EBITDA；調整後的 EBITDA；自由現金流;自由現金流轉換；槓桿比率;淨債務;和恆定貨幣。

In addition, we present changes in gross billings a key performance indicator. Please note that we may refer to gross billings as billings in our presentation, and that gross billings figures referenced on this call will be stated in constant currency, unless stated otherwise. For today's presentation, references to POS and consumer demand exclude the impact related to our Russia business, given our decision to pause all shipments into Russia in 2022.

此外，我們也將總帳單變動作為關鍵績效指標。請注意，我們在演示中可能將總帳單稱為帳單，並且除非另有說明，本次電話會議中引用的總帳單資料將以固定貨幣表示。鑑於我們決定在 2022 年暫停向俄羅斯的所有發貨，在今天的演示中，提及 POS 和消費者需求時排除了與我們的俄羅斯業務相關的影響。

Our slide presentation can be viewed in sync with today's call when you access it through the Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com. The information required by Regulation G regarding non-GAAP financial measures, as well as information regarding our key performance indicator, is included in our earnings release and slide presentation, and both documents are also available in the Investors section of our corporate website.

當您透過我們公司網站 Corporate.mattel.com 的投資者部分造訪我們的幻燈片簡報時，可以與今天的電話會議同步查看。 G 條例要求的有關非 GAAP 財務指標的資訊以及有關我們關鍵績效指標的資訊已包含在我們的收益發布和幻燈片演示中，這兩份文件也可在我們公司網站的投資者部分中找到。

The preliminary financial results included in the press release and slide presentation represent the most current information available to management. The company's actual results, when disclosed in its Form 10-K, may differ from these preliminary results as a result of the completion of the company's financial closing procedures, final adjustments, completion of the review by the company's independent registered public accounting firm and other developments that may arise between now and the disclosures of the final results.

新聞稿和幻燈片簡報中包含的初步財務業績代表了管理層可獲得的最新資訊。由於公司財務結算程序的完成、最終調整、公司獨立註冊會計師事務所審核的完成以及其他原因，公司在 10-K 表格中披露的實際結果可能與這些初步結果有所不同。從現在到最終結果披露之間可能出現的事態發展。

Before we begin, I'd like to caution you that certain statements made during the call are forward-looking, including statements related to the future performance of our business, brands, categories and product lines. Any statements we make about the future are, by their nature, uncertain. These statements are based on currently available information and assumptions, and they are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒您，電話會議中所做的某些陳述是前瞻性的，包括與我們業務、品牌、類別和產品線的未來業績相關的陳述。我們對未來所做的任何陳述本質上都是不確定的。這些陳述是基於目前可用的資訊和假設，並受到許多重大風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的預測有所不同。

We describe some of these uncertainties in the Risk Factors section of our 2022 Annual Report on Form 10-K, our Q3 2023 Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, our earnings release and presentation and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time as well as in other public statements. Mattel does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so, except as required by law.

我們在 10-K 表 2022 年年度報告、10-Q 表 2023 年第三季季度報告、我們的收益發布和演示以及我們不時向 SEC 提交的其他文件中描述了其中一些不確定性以及其他公開聲明中。美泰不會更新前瞻性陳述，並明確表示不承擔任何更新的義務，除非法律要求。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Ynon.

現在我想把電話轉給 Ynon。

Thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. 2023 was a milestone year for Mattel. We extended our leadership in our key toy categories and gained significant share overall, achieved extraordinary success with the Barbie movie and further strengthened our financial position.

感謝您參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。 2023 年對美泰來說是具有里程碑意義的一年。我們擴大了在關鍵玩具類別中的領先地位，總體上獲得了顯著的份額，在芭比電影中取得了非凡的成功，並進一步增強了我們的財務狀況。

Fourth quarter results saw meaningful sales growth and margin expansion. Consumer demand for our products increased, and we continued to outpace the industry. Full year sales were comparable to the prior year, with gross margin expansion and significant increase in cash flow. Execution on our toy strategy was strong, considering we entered 2023 with a challenging retail inventory headwind and faced a toy industry decline during the year.

第四季業績出現顯著的銷售成長和利潤率擴張。消費者對我們產品的需求增加，我們繼續領先產業。全年銷售額與上年持平，毛利率擴大，現金流顯著增加。考慮到我們進入 2023 年時面臨著充滿挑戰的零售庫存逆風，並且在這一年中面臨著玩具行業的下滑，我們的玩具策略執行得非常強勁。

We also made meaningful progress on our entertainment strategy across film, television, digital and publishing. We achieved an investment-grade rating and resumed share repurchases for the first time since 2014. We ended 2023 with the strongest balance sheet we have had in years, with more resources to execute our strategy.

我們也在電影、電視、數位和出版領域的娛樂策略方面取得了有意義的進展。我們獲得了投資級評級，並自 2014 年以來首次恢復了股票回購。2023 年結束時，我們擁有多年來最強勁的資產負債表，並擁有更多資源來執行我們的策略。

Looking at key financial metrics for the fourth quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year. Net sales increased 16% as reported or 14% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 570 basis points to 48.8%, and adjusted EBITDA increased 48% to $234 million. POS increased low single digits in the quarter as we worked closely with our retail partners to meet the demand for our product.

查看第四季的主要財務指標與去年同期的比較。報告淨銷售額成長 16%，以固定匯率計算成長 14%。調整後毛利率提高 570 個基點，達到 48.8%，調整後 EBITDA 成長 48%，達到 2.34 億美元。由於我們與零售合作夥伴密切合作以滿足對我們產品的需求，本季 POS 成長了低個位數。

Looking at key financial metrics for the full year as compared to the prior year. Net sales were comparable or down 1% in constant currency, with growth in 3 or 4 regions. Adjusted gross margin improved 160 basis points to 47.5%. Adjusted EBITDA was $948 million, a decline of 2%. Free cash flow increased by $453 million to $709 million, and we ended the year with over $1.2 billion of cash after utilizing $203 million to repurchase shares.

與上一年相比，請查看全年的主要財務指標。以固定匯率計算，淨銷售額可比或下降 1%，但有 3 或 4 個地區出現成長。調整後毛利率提高 160 個基點至 47.5%。調整後 EBITDA 為 9.48 億美元，下降 2%。自由現金流增加了 4.53 億美元，達到 7.09 億美元，在利用 2.03 億美元回購股票後，我們年底擁有超過 12 億美元的現金。

POS grew low single digits for the year and was up in 3 or 4 regions. Per Circana, in the fourth quarter, Mattel gained share globally, driven by increases in Dolls and Vehicles as well as Games and Building Sets. For the full year, Mattel gained 70 basis points of share globally, driven by increases in Dolls and Vehicles as well as gains in Infant, Toddler and Preschool and Building Sets. Mattel was the #2 global toy company for the quarter and year, and the #1 toy company in the U.S. for the 30th consecutive year, where we achieved the largest annual share gain on record.

POS 全年成長幅度較低，但有 3 或 4 個地區出現成長。根據 Circana 報導，第四季度，由於玩偶和車輛以及遊戲和積木套裝的成長，美泰在全球市場的份額有所增加。由於玩偶和車輛的增長以及嬰幼兒、學齡前兒童和積木套裝的增長，美泰全年的全球份額增長了 70 個基點。美泰是本季和全年排名第二的全球玩具公司，也是連續 30 年排名第一的美國玩具公司，我們實現了有史以來最大的年度份額增幅。

The global toy industry declined 7% in 2023 per Circana. That said, this followed extraordinary growth of 25% from 2019 to 2022, reaching an all-time high. It should be noted, the industry in 2023 was 17% higher than 2019 pre-pandemic and the third largest ever. We are successfully executing our strategy to grow Mattel's IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering.

根據 Circana 的數據，全球玩具產業到 2023 年將下降 7%。也就是說，2019 年至 2022 年實現了 25% 的非凡成長，達到歷史新高。值得注意的是，2023 年該產業比 2019 年疫情前成長了 17%，為史上第三高。我們正在成功執行我們的策略，以發展美泰知識產權驅動的玩具業務並擴大我們的娛樂產品。

As it relates to our Toy business, we made significant progress in scaling our portfolio, growing our franchise brands and advancing e-commerce and D2C. We successfully relaunched catalog IP and continued to strengthen our relationships with major entertainment partners and key retailers.

由於與我們的玩具業務相關，我們在擴大產品組合、發展特許經營品牌以及推進電子商務和 D2C 方面取得了重大進展。我們成功地重新推出了目錄 IP，並繼續加強與主要娛樂合作夥伴和主要零售商的關係。

In 2023, Barbie was the #1 doll property globally, and #2 toy property overall. Hot Wheels gross billings achieved its sixth consecutive record year. Monster High was successfully relaunched globally and was the largest growth property in Dolls. Disney Princess and Frozen performance was strong in its first full year back at Mattel.

2023 年，芭比娃娃成為全球排名第一的娃娃產業，整體玩具產業排名第二。 Hot Wheels 的總營業額連續第六年創下新紀錄。 《Monster High》在全球成功重新推出，成為玩偶中成長最快的產品。迪士尼公主和冰雪奇緣在回歸美泰後的第一個全年表現強勁。

Infant, Toddler, Preschool continued to optimize the portfolio with new product innovation and expanded its Little People Collector business. Mattel Creations, our D2C business serving adult fans, continue to grow, with user traffic up over 90%. And the company received an industry-leading 15 Toy of the Year nominations and 7 awards, including for design and marketing.

嬰幼兒、學齡前兒童持續透過新產品創新優化產品組合，並擴大小人物收藏業務。 Mattel Creations 是我們為成年粉絲提供服務的 D2C 業務，持續成長，用戶流量成長了 90% 以上。該公司獲得了業界領先的 15 項年度玩具提名和 7 項獎項，其中包括設計和行銷獎項。

For our Entertainment business, this was a breakout year as we demonstrated the power of our IP and demand creation capabilities. The Barbie movie was a cultural phenomenon, achieving the largest global box office in 2023, becoming Warner Bros. highest box office movie in its 100-year history and the industry's 14th largest box office of all time.

對於我們的娛樂業務來說，這是突破的一年，因為我們展示了智慧財產權的力量和需求創造能力。芭比電影是一種文化現象，在 2023 年實現了全球最高票房，成為華納兄弟 100 年來票房最高的電影，也是該行業有史以來票房第 14 位。

The movie, its filmmakers and all-star cast, as well as the Barbie album have received multiple nominations and awards, highlighted by 8 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. The Barbie album was honored on Sunday night with Grammy Awards for Compilation Soundtrack, Song of the Year and Best Song Written for Visual Media.

這部電影、其電影製作人和全明星演員陣容以及芭比娃娃專輯獲得了多項提名和獎項，其中包括最佳影片等 8 項奧斯卡提名。週日晚上，《芭比娃娃》專輯榮獲葛萊美獎最佳配樂獎、年度歌曲獎和最佳視覺媒體歌曲獎。

In addition to the fourth and live-action movies in development, we recently announced Mattel Films' first animated movie, Bob the Builder. Award-winning actor and recording artist, Anthony Ramos, will voice the title character; and coproduced with Oscar-winning Animation Studio, ShadowMachine and Jennifer Lopez' Nuyorican Productions.

除了正在開發的第四部真人電影之外，我們最近還宣布了美泰電影公司的第一部動畫電影《建造者鮑伯》。獲獎演員兼唱片藝術家安東尼·拉莫斯將為主角配音；並與奧斯卡獲獎動畫工作室 ShadowMachine 和 Jennifer Lopez 的 Nuyorican Productions 共同製作。

We also announced our partnership with Paramount Pictures to develop the American Girl live-action feature film. Mattel Television Studios premiered 12 series and specials, including Monster High, Hot Wheels, Polly Pocket, Barbie, Thomas & Friends, Fireman Sam and Pictionary, as well as a Monster High movie sequel.

我們也宣布與派拉蒙影業合作開發《美國女孩》真人劇情片。美泰兒電視工作室首播了12 部連續劇和特別節目，包括《精靈高中》、《風火輪》、《波莉口袋》、《芭比娃娃》、《托馬斯和朋友》、《消防員山姆》和《 Pictionary》，以及《精靈高中》電影續集。

In Digital Gaming, Hot Wheels Unleashed 2 Turbocharged was released, and the first stand-alone Barbie game on Roblox was launched, achieving over 130 million visits since October. The Mattel163 joint venture grew its mobile gaming revenues to almost $200 million in 2023. We also launched our own book publishing business, Mattel Press, with sales and distribution managed by Simon & Schuster.

數位遊戲方面，《Hot Wheels Unleashed 2 Turbocharged》發布，Roblox 上首款獨立芭比遊戲上線，自 10 月以來訪問量突破 1.3 億。 Mattel163 合資企業的行動遊戲收入到 2023 年將成長至近 2 億美元。我們也推出了自己的書籍出版業務 Mattel Press，由 Simon & Schuster 管理銷售和發行。

We continue to improve operations and achieved $132 million of cost savings in 2023. We successfully concluded the Optimizing for Growth Program, which achieved total annualized savings of $343 million between 2021 and 2023, well beyond our initial target of $250 million and revised target of $300 million.

我們繼續改善運營，並在2023 年實現了1.32 億美元的成本節約。我們成功完成了成長優化計劃，在2021 年至2023 年間實現了年化總成本節約3.43 億美元，遠遠超出了我們2.5 億美元的初始目標和300 美元的修訂目標百萬。

Today, we announced a new Optimizing for Profitable Growth Program that will target an additional $200 million of annualized savings between 2024 and 2026. The program's aim is to achieve further efficiencies and cost-saving opportunities that we believe can further improve our productivity, profitability and competitive position.

今天，我們宣布了一項新的“優化盈利增長計劃”，目標是在2024 年至2026 年間每年額外節省2 億美元。該計劃的目標是實現進一步提高效率和節省成本的機會，我們相信這些機會可以進一步提高我們的生產力、獲利能力和競爭地位。

Aligned with our capital deployment strategy, Mattel's Board of Directors has approved a new $1 billion share repurchase authorization. We were also pleased to announce earlier today that Julius Genachowski and Dawn Ostroff have joined Mattel's Board of Directors. Julius and Dawn are respected leaders who have extensive combined experience in media, entertainment and technology and bring expertise in finance, M&A and government regulation.

根據我們的資本部署策略，美泰董事會已批准新的 10 億美元股票回購授權。今天早些時候，我們還很高興地宣布 Julius Genachowski 和 Dawn Ostroff 已加入 Mattel 董事會。 Julius 和 Dawn 是受人尊敬的領導者，他們在媒體、娛樂和科技領域擁有豐富的綜合經驗，並帶來了金融、併購和政府監管方面的專業知識。

Todd Bradley and Ann Lewnes recently stepped down from the Board, and I would like to thank them for the many years of dedicated service. We are grateful for their support and guidance and playing an active role during their tenure.

托德布拉德利 (Todd Bradley) 和安萊恩斯 (Ann Lewnes) 最近從董事會辭職，我要感謝他們多年來的竭誠服務。我們感謝他們在任職期間的支持和指導並發揮的積極作用。

We are also excited to welcome Chris Farrell, who recently joined the company as Chief Strategy Officer. Chris brings expertise in strategic planning, M&A, corporate development and investment banking in the consumer and retail sectors. These additions will serve Mattel well as we execute our strategy, explore growth opportunities and enhance long-term shareholder value.

我們也很高興地歡迎克里斯法雷爾 (Chris Farrell)，他最近加入公司擔任首席策略長。克里斯帶來了消費和零售領域的策略規劃、併購、企業發展和投資銀行的專業知識。這些新增成員將為美泰公司執行策略、探索成長機會和提高長期股東價值提供良好服務。

In terms of our expectations for the year, we believe we are well positioned competitively and will continue to outpace the industry and gain market share. We expect the toy industry to decline in 2024, although at a lesser rate than 2023. The anticipated decline is due to a lighter theatrical film slate and the impact of the shift in consumer spending patterns towards experiences and services, which we believe will moderate over the year.

就我們對今年的預期而言，我們相信我們處於有利的競爭地位，並將繼續超越行業並獲得市場份額。我們預計玩具業將在2024 年下滑，儘管幅度低於2023 年。預期下滑的原因是院線電影數量減少以及消費者支出模式轉向體驗和服務的影響，我們認為這種影響將在2024 年放緩。那一年。

Our 2024 plan emphasizes growth in profitability, gross margin expansion, and strong cash generation. With the benefit of a strong balance sheet and consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we intend to explore M&A and other corporate development opportunities as well as repurchase shares. Some of the highlights for 2024 include Barbie's 65th anniversary celebration and related activations, as well as innovation in new segments and play patterns. Hot Wheels will expand its die-cast universe and benefit from a new animated series on Netflix.

我們的 2024 年計畫強調獲利能力成長、毛利率擴張和強勁的現金產生。憑藉強勁的資產負債表並符合我們的資本配置優先事項，我們打算探索併購和其他企業發展機會以及回購股票。 2024 年的一些亮點包括芭比娃娃 65 週年慶典和相關活動，以及新細分市場和遊戲模式的創新。 Hot Wheels 將擴大其壓鑄宇宙，並受益於 Netflix 的新動畫影集。

Fisher-Price will expand its core product lines, introduce an exciting new segment and extend its license entertainment offerings. And our Challenger categories will bring more innovative products to market. We look forward to sharing more details at our investor event in March, including our category strategies as well as power brands, Barbie, Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price.

費雪公司將擴大其核心產品線，推出令人興奮的新細分市場並擴展其授權娛樂產品。我們的挑戰者類別將為市場帶來更多創新產品。我們期待在三月的投資人活動中分享更多細節，包括我們的品類策略以及強勢品牌、Barbie、Hot Wheels 和 Fisher-Price。

In addition, we will continue to progress our entertainment strategy in film and television as well as digital and live experiences. We expect Mattel's net sales in constant currency for the full year to be comparable to prior year and for adjusted EPS to grow double digit and be in the range of $1.35 to $1.45. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $500 million.

此外，我們將繼續推動影視、數位和現場體驗的娛樂策略。我們預計美泰全年以固定匯率計算的淨銷售額將與去年相當，調整後每股盈餘將成長兩位數，介於 1.35 美元至 1.45 美元之間。自由現金流預計約 5 億美元。

We expect our full year POS to be comparable to 2023 and aim to outpace the toy industry and gain market share. Beyond 2024, we believe toy industry trends will further improve and that the industry will return to growth and continue to grow over the long term.

我們預計全年 POS 銷量將與 2023 年持平，目標是超越玩具產業並獲得市場份額。 2024年之後，我們相信玩具產業趨勢將進一步改善，產業將恢復成長並持續長期成長。

The fundamentals of the toy business are strong. Toys are an important part of consumers' lives, and retailers see the category as a strategic lever. For Mattel, we expect to grow sales and earnings in 2025 with the anticipated benefit of improving industry trends, innovation in toys, expansion of our entertainment offering and licensing partnerships as well as savings from our Optimizing for Profitable Growth Program.

玩具業務的基本面十分強勁。玩具是消費者生活的重要組成部分，零售商將該類別視為策略槓桿。對於美泰來說，我們預計 2025 年銷售額和收入將實現成長，預期受益包括改善行業趨勢、玩具創新、擴大我們的娛樂產品和許可合作夥伴關係以及我們的盈利增長優化計劃帶來的節省。

In closing, 2023 was defined by our strong execution in both toys and entertainment. Consumer demand for our products continue to grow and meaningful market share gains demonstrated the strength of our portfolio as a whole. The breakout success of the award-winning Barbie movie was a showcase for our entertainment strategy and cultural relevance of our brands outside the toy aisle.

最後，我們在玩具和娛樂領域的強勁執行力標誌著 2023 年的到來。消費者對我們產品的需求持續成長，市場佔有率的顯著成長證明了我們整個產品組合的實力。屢獲殊榮的芭比娃娃電影的突破性成功展示了我們的娛樂策略以及我們品牌在玩具領域之外的文化相關性。

Mattel is in the strongest financial position it has been in years, with significant free cash flow generation, an optimization program and a new share repurchase authorization. As we start a new year, we believe we are well positioned to continue the successful execution of our multiyear strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering and create long-term shareholder value.

美泰的財務狀況處於多年來最強勁的水平，擁有大量的自由現金流、優化計劃和新的股票回購授權。在新的一年開始之際，我們相信我們有能力繼續成功執行我們的多年策略，以發展我們的智慧財產權驅動的玩具業務，擴大我們的娛樂產品並創造長期股東價值。

Anthony will cover the financials in more detail.

安東尼將更詳細地介紹財務狀況。

Thanks, Ynon. As expected, we had a very strong fourth quarter, with double-digit top and bottom line growth compared to the prior year. Net sales of $1.621 billion increased 16% or 14% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin increased 570 basis points to 48.8%. Adjusted operating income was $147 million, an increase of $68 million or 86%, primarily driven by sales growth and gross margin expansion partly offset by an incentive-driven increase in SG&A. Adjusted EPS was $0.29 compared to $0.18 a year ago, an increase of 61%. And adjusted EBITDA was $234 million, an increase of $76 million.

謝謝，伊農。正如預期的那樣，我們第四季度的業績非常強勁，與前一年相比，營收和利潤均實現了兩位數的成長。淨銷售額 16.21 億美元，成長 16%；以固定匯率計算，成長 14%。調整後毛利率成長 570 個基點至 48.8%。調整後營業收入為 1.47 億美元，增加 6,800 萬美元，即 86%，主要是由銷售成長和毛利率擴張推動的，但激勵驅動的 SG&A 成長部分抵消了這一增長。調整後每股收益為 0.29 美元，較去年同期的 0.18 美元成長 61%。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.34 億美元，增加了 7,600 萬美元。

Looking at our full year performance. Net sales were flat or down 1%, excluding the positive impact of currency translation. Adjusted gross margin increased 160 basis points to 47.5%, benefiting from cost savings, pricing and the Barbie movie. Adjusted operating income was $641 million compared to $689 million in the prior year. Adjusted EPS was $1.23 compared to $1.25 last year. And adjusted EBITDA finished the year at $948 million compared to $968 million in the prior year.

看看我們全年的表現。剔除貨幣換算的正面影響，淨銷售額持平或下降 1%。受惠於成本節約、定價和芭比電影，調整後毛利率成長 160 個基點至 47.5%。調整後營業收入為 6.41 億美元，前一年為 6.89 億美元。調整後每股收益為 1.23 美元，去年為 1.25 美元。全年調整後 EBITDA 為 9.48 億美元，而前一年為 9.68 億美元。

Retailers ended the year with inventory down high single digits as measured in both dollars and weeks of supply. While they made significant progress in 2023, retailer inventories remain slightly elevated compared to historical norms.

以美元和供應週數衡量，零售商今年年底的庫存下降了高個位數。儘管零售商在 2023 年取得了重大進展，但與歷史正常水平相比，庫存仍略有上升。

Turning to gross billings in constant currency, beginning with the fourth quarter. Gross billings increased 16%, with growth in our 3 leader categories, including double-digit growth in all 3 power brands, Barbie, Hot Wheels and Fisher-Price, as well as growth in our Challenger categories collectively. POS increased low single digits as we continued to outpace the industry and gain market share.

轉向以固定匯率計算的總帳單，從第四季開始。總銷售額成長了 16%，我們的 3 個領先類別實現了成長，其中包括芭比、風火輪和費雪牌這 3 個強勢品牌的兩位數成長，以及挑戰者類別的整體成長。隨著我們繼續超越行業並擴大市場份額，POS 增長了低個位數。

As previously discussed, shipping patterns have returned to historical trends with approximately 2/3 of annual gross billings in the second half, which has favorably impacted our fourth quarter gross billings performance in comparison to the prior year. Dolls increased 27%, driven primarily by Barbie, Disney Princess and Frozen and Monster High. POS for the category increased low double digits.

如同前面所討論的，運輸模式已恢復到歷史趨勢，下半年的年度總帳單量約為 2/3，這對我們第四季度的總帳單業績（與去年同期相比）產生了有利影響。玩偶增加了 27%，主要受到芭比娃娃、迪士尼公主、冰雪奇緣和精靈高中的推動。此類別的 POS 成長低兩位數。

Barbie had a very strong finish to the year with fourth quarter growth of 24%, driven by toys and benefits associated with the movie. Vehicles achieved another quarter of growth, increasing 15%, driven by a 16% increase in Hot Wheels, which benefited from die-cast cars and continued innovation across multiple segments. POS increased mid-single digits.

受玩具和與電影相關的福利的推動，《芭比娃娃》今年取得了非常強勁的成績，第四季度增長了 24%。受惠於壓鑄汽車和跨多個細分市場的持續創新，風火輪 (Hot Wheels) 成長了 16%，車輛業務又實現了一個季度的成長，成長了 15%。 POS 成長了中個位數。

Infant, Toddler and Preschool increased by 7%, driven by double-digit growth in Fisher-Price. POS declined high single digits. Challenger categories, in aggregate, increased by 1%, primarily driven by Games, partly offset by a decline in Action Figures. POS declined high single digits, primarily due to Action Figures.

在費雪公司兩位數成長的推動下，嬰兒、幼兒和學前班成長了 7%。 POS 下降了高個位數。挑戰者類別整體成長了 1%，主要由遊戲推動，但部分被可動人偶的下降所抵消。 POS 出現高個位數下降，主要是因為可動人偶。

Turning to the full year. Gross billings declined by 1%, primarily due to the negative impact of retailer inventory reductions and Russia, partly offset by the benefits from low single-digit POS growth and the very successful Barbie movie. Mattel outpaced the industry and gained 70 points of global market share per Circana.

轉至全年。總營業額下降了 1%，主要是由於零售商庫存減少和俄羅斯的負面影響，但部分被 POS 低個位數增長和非常成功的芭比娃娃電影帶來的好處所抵消。根據 Circana 的數據，美泰超越了產業，獲得了 70 個百分點的全球市場份額。

Dolls increased 13%, in line with POS, driven by Disney Princess and Frozen, Monster High and Barbie, partly offset by a decline in American Girl. Barbie increased 2%. The total impact from our direct movie participation, movie-related toy sales and consumer products, generated more than $150 million in sales with a blended operating income margin of approximately 60%. POS was flat. Mattel outperformed the industry in the Dolls category and gained 750 basis points of market share for the full year per Circana.

受《迪士尼公主》、《冰雪奇緣》、《精靈高中》和《芭比娃娃》的推動，玩偶銷量增長了 13%，與 POS 數據一致，但美國女孩的銷量下降部分抵消了這一增長。芭比娃娃增加了 2%。我們直接參與電影、電影相關玩具銷售和消費品的總影響產生了超過 1.5 億美元的銷售額，綜合營業利潤率約為 60%。 POS 持平。根據 Circana 的數據，美泰在玩偶類別中的表現優於行業，全年市佔率增加了 750 個基點。

Vehicles had another outstanding year growing 11%, in line with POS, driven by Hot Wheels die-cast and the successful extension of the brand into the skate and RC segments. Hot Wheels achieved its sixth consecutive record year. Mattel outpaced the industry in the Vehicles category, gained 280 basis points of market share, reaching its highest global market share on record per Circana.

根據 POS 的數據，在 Hot Wheels 壓鑄件以及該品牌成功擴展到滑板和遙控車領域的推動下，車輛領域又迎來了 11% 的出色成長。風火輪連續第六年創下紀錄。美泰兒 (Mattel) 在車輛類別中超越了行業，市場份額增加了 280 個基點，達到了 Circana 有史以來的最高全球市場份額。

Infant, Toddler and Preschool declined 12% due to ImagineX, wrapping theatrical times in the prior year, and BabyGear, partly offset by Little People. POS declined high single digits. Despite the decline, Mattel outperformed the industry gained 10 basis points of market share and extended its #1 position within the category per Circana.

由於 ImagineX 和 BabyGear 的影響，嬰兒、幼兒和學前班的收入下降了 12%，而 BabyGear 則被 Little People 部分抵消了。 POS 下降了高個位數。儘管業績下滑，美泰兒的表現優於行業，市佔率增加了 10 個基點，並根據 Circana 擴大了在該類別中的第一名位置。

Challenger categories declined 25% due primarily to action figures comping a strong film fleet in the prior year. POS declined low double digits. Building Sets and Games each grew gross billings for the year. Per Circana, Mattel gained market share in Building Sets for the full year.

挑戰者類別下降了 25%，這主要是由於前一年的動作人物構成了強大的電影陣容。 POS 下跌兩位數。拼搭套裝和遊戲今年的總收入均有所成長。根據 Circana 報導，美泰全年在建築套裝領域的市佔率有所增加。

Looking at our fourth quarter performance by region. Growth was primarily driven by North America. Gross billings in North America increased 33%, benefiting from the return to historical shipping patterns. POS increased mid-single digits. EMEA grew 1% and while POS was up mid-single digits, growing ahead of the market. Asia Pacific increased 6%, driven by growth in Australia and New Zealand. POS increased mid-single digits. Latin America increased 1% and POS was down mid-single digits due to softness in Brazil.

按地區查看我們第四季的業績。成長主要由北美推動。受惠於歷史運輸模式的回歸，北美地區的總銷售額成長了 33%。 POS 成長了中個位數。歐洲、中東和非洲地區成長了 1%，而 POS 則成長了中個位數，成長領先於市場。在澳洲和紐西蘭成長的推動下，亞太地區成長了 6%。 POS 成長了中個位數。拉丁美洲成長了 1%，而由於巴西的疲軟，POS 下降了中個位數。

Looking at our full year performance on a regional basis. Gross billings in North America increased 1% with POS comparable to the prior year. Mattel outpaced the industry and gained 90 basis points of market share in North America, per Circana. EMEA declined 7%, including a negative 6 percentage point impact from Russia. POS, excluding Russia, increased high single digits. Mattel outpaced the industry and gained market share in EMEA, per Circana.

看看我們按地區劃分的全年業績。北美地區 POS 的總營業額與前一年相比成長了 1%。根據 Circana 的數據，美泰超越了產業，在北美市場佔有率提高了 90 個基點。歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降了 7%，其中俄羅斯的負面影響下降了 6 個百分點。 POS（不包括俄羅斯）成長了高個位數。根據 Circana 報導，美泰在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的表現超越了產業，並獲得了市場份額。

Latin America increased 3%, in line with POS. Mattel gained market share and expanded its market leadership position in Latin America, per Circana. Asia Pacific increased 11%, while POS increased low single digits. Mattel outpaced the industry and gained market share in the region, per Circana.

拉丁美洲成長了 3%，與 POS 一致。據 Circana 報導，美泰在拉丁美洲獲得了市場份額並擴大了其市場領導地位。亞太地區成長 11%，而 POS 成長較低個位數。據 Circana 報道，美泰超越了行業，並獲得了該地區的市場份額。

Adjusted gross margin was 48.8% in the quarter, compared to 43.1% in the prior year, an increase of 570 basis points. The significant increase in adjusted gross margin was driven by several factors.

本季調整後毛利率為 48.8%，較上年同期的 43.1% 成長 570 個基點。調整後毛利率的大幅成長是由多種因素所推動的。

Cost deflation contributed 340 basis points; lower inventory management costs, primarily obsolescence and close-ups, added 150 basis points; savings from the Optimizing for Growth program added 130 basis points; favorable mix, primarily margin benefit related to the Barbie movie, added 70 basis points; and pricing, net of higher sales adjustments added 20 basis points. Going the other way, increased royalties and other factors had a negative impact of 140 basis points.

成本通貨緊縮貢獻了340個基點；庫存管理成本（主要是報廢和停產）降低，增加了 150 個基點；優化成長計畫帶來的節省增加了 130 個基點；有利的組合，主要是與芭比電影相關的利潤率，增加了 70 個基點；扣除較高的銷售調整後的定價增加了 20 個基點。另一方面，特許權使用費增加和其他因素產生了 140 個基點的負面影響。

For the full year, adjusted gross margin increased by 160 basis points to 47.5%. The improvement was primarily driven by cost savings, the favorable mix impact associated with the Barbie movie and pricing partly offset by unfavorable fixed cost absorption due to lower production volume and other supply chain costs.

全年調整後毛利率成長 160 個基點至 47.5%。這一改善主要是由於成本節約、與芭比電影和定價相關的有利組合影響而部分被由於產量和其他供應鏈成本下降而產生的不利的固定成本吸收所抵消。

Moving down to P&L. In the fourth quarter, advertising expenses declined 3% to $234 million. During the fourth quarter, we shifted some of our support from advertising to promotions, which are reflected in higher sales adjustments. For the full year, advertising expense declined 2% to $525 million.

向下移動到損益表。第四季廣告費用下降 3%，至 2.34 億美元。在第四季度，我們將部分支援從廣告轉向促銷，這反映在更高的銷售調整上。全年廣告費用下降 2%，至 5.25 億美元。

As expected, SG&A increased significantly due to incentive compensation. Adjusted SG&A in the fourth quarter increased by $127 million to $409 million, reflecting above-target incentive compensation. For the full year, adjusted SG&A increased $147 million due to incentive compensation and salary and market-related pay, partly offset by savings from the Optimizing for Growth program.

如預期，由於激勵性薪酬，SG&A 顯著增加。第四季調整後的 SG&A 增加了 1.27 億美元，達到 4.09 億美元，反映出高於目標的激勵薪酬。全年，由於激勵性薪酬、薪資和市場相關薪資，調整後的銷售、一般行政管理費用增加了 1.47 億美元，部分被成長優化計畫節省的費用所抵銷。

Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was $147 million, an increase of $68 million or 86% compared to the prior year. The increase was primarily driven by net sales growth and gross margin expansion, partly offset by higher SG&A. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $76 million to $234 million, driven by the same factors. Adjusted EPS increased 61% to $0.29.

第四季調整後營業收入為1.47億美元，較上年增加6,800萬美元，成長86%。這一成長主要是由淨銷售額成長和毛利率擴張所推動的，但部分被較高的銷售管理費用所抵銷。在同樣因素的推動下，調整後 EBITDA 增加了 7,600 萬美元，達到 2.34 億美元。調整後每股收益成長 61%，達到 0.29 美元。

For the year, adjusted operating income declined $47 million to $641 million, and adjusted EBITDA declined $21 million to $948 million. Adjusted EPS was $1.23 compared to $1.25 in the prior year. EPS performance benefited from higher interest income, a lower adjusted tax rate and a lower share count resulting from our share repurchase activity.

今年，調整後營業收入下降 4,700 萬美元，至 6.41 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 下降 2,100 萬美元，至 9.48 億美元。調整後每股收益為 1.23 美元，前一年為 1.25 美元。每股盈餘的表現得益於更高的利息收入、更低的調整稅率以及我們的股票回購活動帶來的更少的股票數量。

We generated very significant cash flow in 2023. Cash from operations almost doubled to $870 million compared to $443 million in the prior year, an increase of $427 million. The increase was primarily driven by improved working capital performance. Working capital was a source of funds in 2023, driven primarily by inventory reductions compared to a use of funds in the prior year.

2023 年，我們產生了非常可觀的現金流。與上一年的 4.43 億美元相比，營運現金流幾乎翻了一番，達到 8.7 億美元，增加了 4.27 億美元。這一增長主要是由於營運資金績效改善所致。營運資金是 2023 年的資金來源，主要是由於與上一年的資金使用相比庫存減少所致。

Capital expenditures were $160 million compared to $187 million in the prior year and lower than our expectations, primarily due to the timing of expenditures on capacity additions. Free cash flow was $709 million compared to $256 million, an increase of $453 million. The increase was primarily driven by cash from operations and lower capital expenditures. As a percentage of adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow conversion was 75% compared to 26% in the prior year. During 2023, we utilized $203 million of cash to repurchase shares, fully utilizing the company's existing authorization.

資本支出為 1.6 億美元，而前一年為 1.87 億美元，低於我們的預期，主要是由於產能增加支出的時間安排。自由現金流為 7.09 億美元，較 2.56 億美元增加了 4.53 億美元。這一增長主要是由於營運現金和資本支出減少所致。自由現金流轉換佔調整後 EBITDA 的百分比為 75%，而前一年為 26%。 2023年，我們使用了2.03億美元現金回購股票，充分利用了公司現有的授權。

Taking a look at the balance sheet. We meaningfully improved our financial position. We finished the year with a cash balance of $1.261 billion compared to $761 million in the prior year. The increase reflects our free cash flow performance for 2023, net of share repurchases.

看一下資產負債表。我們的財務狀況得到了顯著改善。今年結束時，我們的現金餘額為 12.61 億美元，而前一年為 7.61 億美元。這一增長反映了我們 2023 年扣除股票回購後的自由現金流量表現。

Total debt was $2.330 billion, consistent with the prior year. Our debt portfolio is well positioned, with no scheduled maturities until 2026. Accounts receivable increased by $222 million, in line with fourth quarter sales growth to $1.082 billion. We made significant progress reducing owned inventory levels. Inventory at year-end was $572 million compared to $894 million in the prior year, a reduction of $322 million and a key contributor to free cash flow. Consistent with our expectations, debt to adjusted EBITDA finished the year at 2.5x, excluding the benefit of our cash balance. This compares to 2.4x in the prior year.

債務總額為 23.3 億美元，與前一年持平。我們的債務投資組合定位良好，在 2026 年之前沒有預定到期日。應收帳款增加了 2.22 億美元，與第四季銷售額增長至 10.82 億美元一致。我們在降低自有庫存水準方面取得了重大進展。年末庫存為 5.72 億美元，較前一年的 8.94 億美元減少 3.22 億美元，是自由現金流的主要貢獻者。與我們的預期一致，調整後 EBITDA 的負債為 2.5 倍，不包括現金餘額的收益。相比之下，去年增長了 2.4 倍。

Under our Optimizing for Growth program, we achieved cost savings of $46 million in the quarter and $132 million in the year. We have now completed this program. Under this program, we achieved total annualized savings of $343 million between 2021 and 2023, exceeding our initial target of $250 million and revised goal of $300 million. We recognize the importance of managing our cost structure and continuing to expand margins as well as generating savings that can be reinvested in the business.

根據我們的成長優化計劃，我們在本季節省了 4,600 萬美元的成本，在本年度節省了 1.32 億美元的成本。我們現在已經完成這個計劃了。根據該計劃，我們在 2021 年至 2023 年間實現了年度節省總額 3.43 億美元，超過了 2.5 億美元的初始目標和 3 億美元的修訂目標。我們認識到管理成本結構、持續擴大利潤以及產生可再投資於業務的節省的重要性。

Today, we are announcing a new 3-year program that we are calling Optimizing for Profitable Growth or OPG. The program's aim is to achieve efficiencies, leveraging our scale and cost savings opportunities within our global supply chain, including our manufacturing footprint that we believe can further improve productivity, profitability and our competitive position. We are targeting $200 million of annualized savings between 2024 and 2026 under this new program, which includes the previously disclosed initiative to close a plant in China.

今天，我們宣布一項新的 3 年計劃，我們稱之為「優化獲利成長」或「OPG」。該計劃的目標是提高效率，利用我們全球供應鏈中的規模和成本節約機會，包括我們相信可以進一步提高生產力、盈利能力和競爭地位的製造足跡。根據這項新計劃，我們的目標是在 2024 年至 2026 年間每年節省 2 億美元，其中包括先前披露的關閉中國工廠的舉措。

In terms of the P&L, we anticipate approximately 70% of the expected savings to benefit cost of goods sold and the remaining 30% to benefit SG&A. Costs and investments to implement the program are estimated to be between $130 million to $170 million, which will be updated as the program advances. We have a strong track record of achieving cost savings and are confident in our ability to execute this new program.

就損益表而言，我們預計約 70% 的預期節省將有利於銷售商品成本，其餘 30% 有利於銷售管理費用。實施該計劃的成本和投資估計在 1.3 億至 1.7 億美元之間，該數字將隨著計劃的進展而更新。我們在節省成本方面擁有良好的記錄，並對執行這項新計劃的能力充滿信心。

As Ynon said, we expect the toy industry to decline in 2024 and for Mattel to outpace the industry and continue to gain global market share. For 2024, we expect net sales in constant currency to be comparable to the prior year, with growth in Vehicles, offset by a decline in Dolls as we wrap the benefits of the Barbie movie.

正如 Ynon 所說，我們預計 2024 年玩具產業將出現下滑，而美泰兒將超越產業並繼續獲得全球市場份額。對於 2024 年，我們預計以固定匯率計算的淨銷售額將與前一年相當，車輛的成長被娃娃的下降所抵消，因為我們總結了芭比電影的好處。

We expect Infant, Toddler and Preschool as well as our Challenger categories collectively to be comparable to the prior year. With respect to the power brands, we expect Hot Wheels to grow, Fisher-Price to be comparable and for Barbie to decline. Beginning in the first quarter of 2024, the American Girl business is being integrated into our North America commercial organization. As a result, American Girl will no longer be an operating segment.

我們預計嬰兒、幼兒和學前班以及挑戰者類別的總體水平將與上一年相當。就強勢品牌而言，我們預計 Hot Wheels 將成長，Fisher-Price 將保持可比性，而 Barbie 將下降。從 2024 年第一季開始，American Girl 業務將整合到我們的北美商業組織中。因此，美國女孩將不再是營運部門。

Foreign currency translation is not expected to have a material impact on our top line performance based on current spot rates. Adjusted gross margin is expected to increase from 47.5% in 2023 to a range of 48.5% to 49%. The forecasted improvement is primarily driven by savings from our OPG program and favorable fixed cost absorption from increased production levels, partly offset by wrapping the Barbie movie benefit.

根據目前即期匯率，外幣換算預計不會對我們的營收業績產生重大影響。調整後毛利率預計將從 2023 年的 47.5% 增加至 48.5% 至 49%。預計的改善主要是由於我們的 OPG 計劃節省的成本以及生產水平提高帶來的有利固定成本吸收，部分被芭比娃娃電影福利所抵消。

We expect advertising and adjusted SG&A to remain relatively stable as a percent of net sales. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $975 million to $1.025 billion compared to $948 million in the prior year. Adjusted EPS is expected to grow double digits to a range of $1.35 to $1.45 compared to $1.23 in 2023. The adjusted tax rate is expected to be 23% to 24% compared to the prior year rate of 23%. Capital expenditures are expected to be in the range of $175 million to $200 million, and free cash flow is expected to be approximately $500 million.

我們預期廣告和調整後的銷售及管理費用佔淨銷售額的百分比將保持相對穩定。調整後 EBITDA 預計在 9.75 億美元至 10.25 億美元之間，而前一年為 9.48 億美元。調整後每股盈餘預計將成長兩位數，達到 1.35 至 1.45 美元，而 2023 年為 1.23 美元。調整後稅率預計為 23% 至 24%，而上年稅率為 23%。資本支出預計在1.75億美元至2億美元之間，自由現金流預計約5億美元。

As Ynon said, we are well positioned and expect to grow sales and earnings in 2025. We are operating in a macroeconomic environment that may impact consumer demand. The guidance considers what the company is aware of today, but remains subject to market volatility, unexpected disruptions and other risks and uncertainties. We have generated significant free cash flow and improved our financial position with a cash balance over $1.2 billion, achieved our targeted leverage ratio and an investment-grade rating.

正如 Ynon 所說，我們處於有利位置，預計 2025 年銷售額和收入將實現成長。我們所處的宏觀經濟環境可能會影響消費者需求。該指引考慮了公司目前所了解的情況，但仍會受到市場波動、意外中斷以及其他風險和不確定性的影響。我們產生了大量的自由現金流，並改善了我們的財務狀況，現金餘額超過 12 億美元，實現了我們的目標槓桿率和投資級評級。

With our strong balance sheet and consistent with our stated capital allocation priorities, we are announcing a new multiyear share repurchase program with an authorization of $1 billion. This action reflects confidence in our strategy to grow sales and earnings and cash flow and create long-term shareholder value. We intend to fund repurchases with free cash flow.

憑藉我們強大的資產負債表並符合我們既定的資本配置優先事項，我們宣布一項新的多年期股票回購計劃，授權金額為 10 億美元。這項行動反映了我們對增加銷售、獲利和現金流以及創造長期股東價值的策略的信心。我們打算用自由現金流為回購提供資金。

In closing, we finished the year with a strong fourth quarter performance. For the year, we grew POS, gained market share and generated significant free cash flow. Looking ahead, we are launching a new cost savings program, expect to improve profitability in 2024, announced a new share repurchase program, and we'll continue to execute our strategy.

最後，我們以強勁的第四季業績結束了這一年。這一年，我們發展了 POS，贏得了市場份額，並產生了大量的自由現金流。展望未來，我們正在推出新的成本節約計劃，預計在 2024 年提高盈利能力，宣布了新的股票回購計劃，我們將繼續執行我們的策略。

And now I will turn it over to the operator.

現在我將把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from James Hardiman with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們將接受花旗銀行詹姆斯哈迪曼（James Hardiman）提出的第一個問題。

So I'm curious on the retail front. You talked about how retailers finished the year with absolute inventories and weeks on-hand down high single digits, but yet, it sounds like there's more work to be done. Maybe help us ideally quantify how much is left to go. What's the dollar value associated with that additional adjustment?

所以我對零售方面很好奇。您談到零售商如何以絕對庫存和現有周數下降高個位數的方式結束了這一年，但聽起來還有更多工作要做。也許可以幫助我們理想地量化還剩下多少。與額外調整相關的美元價值是多少？

And then, maybe just qualitatively, I mean, obviously, there was a significant headwind last year, particularly the first half of last year with similar inventory reductions. I guess, net-net, should we be thinking about sort of this wholesale versus retail dynamic is a net headwind or a net tailwind for the year? And I guess, specifically, that first half period.

然後，也許只是從質量上來說，我的意思是，顯然，去年出現了重大阻力，特別是去年上半年，庫存減少了類似的情況。我想，淨淨，我們是否應該考慮今年批發與零售的動態是淨逆風還是淨順風？我想，具體來說，是上半場。

Sure. Let me address that. As we've discussed, we did -- ended the year 2023 with retail inventory elevated. And throughout the year, we worked with our retailers, and we've made significant progress. And as you pointed out, we ended the year with retail inventories down high single digits, both in dollars and weeks of supply.

當然。讓我來解決這個問題。正如我們所討論的，我們確實在 2023 年結束時零售庫存增加了。在這一年裡，我們與零售商合作，取得了重大進展。正如您所指出的，我們今年年底的零售庫存下降了高個位數，無論是美元還是供應週數。

That being said, right, and although we made significant progress, the levels at the end of 2023 and going into 2024 are slightly elevated. But the way to think about 2024 is that the impact year-on-year, as we wrap the significant retail inventory reductions in 2023, it actually is a tailwind, right, to our top line performance in 2024. So hopefully, that helps.

話雖這麼說，雖然我們取得了重大進展，但 2023 年底和 2024 年的水準略有上升。但思考 2024 年的方式是，當我們在 2023 年完成零售庫存的大幅削減時，同比影響實際上對我們 2024 年的營收業績來說是一個順風車。所以希望這會有所幫助。

It does. And I guess the keyword there is slightly elevated versus significantly elevated a year ago. Any idea, just ballpark, when we might get back to sort of a one-to-one relationship between wholesale and retail?

確實如此。我猜，與一年前相比，那裡的關鍵字略有上升。任何想法，只是大概，我們什麼時候可以恢復批發和零售之間的一對一關係？

Yes, we would expect to work through the situation together with our retailers in 2024. And I think in terms of the other part of your question around cadence, we did see a return to more historical patterns in terms of first half, second half gross billings, 2/3 in the second half, 1/3 in the first half, and we would expect that to generally continue in terms of the cadence into 2024.

是的，我們希望在2024 年與我們的零售商一起解決這個問題。我認為，就您關於節奏的問題的另一部分而言，我們確實看到上半年、下半年總銷售額回歸到更多歷史模式比林斯，下半年為 2/3，上半年為 1/3，我們預計這種節奏將持續到 2024 年。

And we will take our next question from Eric Handler with ROTH MKM.

我們將回答 Eric Handler 和 ROTH MKM 提出的下一個問題。

Wondering if you could talk a little bit about Hot Wheels and sort of some of the growth that you're expecting from the segment in 2024. And sort of what's allowed that just to maintain such a strong growth cadence over the last 5 or 6 years?

想知道您是否可以談談風火輪以及您對 2024 年該細分市場的一些成長預期。以及是什麼讓風火輪在過去 5 或 6 年中保持如此強勁的成長節奏？

Yes, Eric. So vehicles continue a very strong performance. It was up 15% in the quarter, 11% for the year, and POS was in line with that. We gained 280 basis points of market share. This is a very meaningful increase in our position. Hot Wheels within that grew 16% in the fourth quarter and 13% for the full year. And as we noted on the call, we achieved our sixth consecutive record year. And again, #1 in the Vehicles -- in the Vehicle category as a whole.

是的，埃里克。因此車輛繼續保持非常強勁的性能。該季度成長 15%，全年成長 11%，POS 也與此一致。我們的市佔率增加了 280 個基點。這是我們地位的一個非常有意義的提升。其中 Hot Wheels 第四季成長 16%，全年成長 13%。正如我們在電話會議上指出的那樣，我們連續第六年創下了紀錄。再次，在車輛類別中排名第一。

The growth was driven primarily by die-cast vehicles and new innovation, including the RC, for example, the skate segment and new launches of Hot Wheels RacerVerse in the fall. And we've continued to introduce new ways to play and engage with the brand. We also look to continue to leverage the core die-cast vehicle, serving both children and adult collectors. There's more content that will come out this year on Netflix.

這一成長主要是由壓鑄車輛和新創新推動的，例如 RC、滑板細分市場以及秋季新推出的 Hot Wheels RacerVerse。我們不斷推出新的品牌玩法和互動方式。我們也希望繼續利用核心壓鑄車輛，為兒童和成人收藏家提供服務。今年 Netflix 將推出更多內容。

And the success in our Vehicle category in general, and Hot Wheels specifically, really goes back to our playbook and how we're leveraging the strength of the brand, infusing innovation into the product and continuing to add more touch points for the consumers. And there's a movie currently in development with J.J. Abrams as a producer at Warner Bros. So we will continue to drive and elevate this incredible franchise, which has so much of a runway and opportunities ahead of it.

我們的車輛類別（特別是風火輪）的成功實際上可以追溯到我們的策略以及我們如何利用品牌的優勢，將創新註入產品並繼續為消費者添加更多接觸點。目前正在與 J.J. 合作拍攝一部電影。艾布拉姆斯作為華納兄弟的製片人，因此我們將繼續推動和提升這個令人難以置信的系列，它前面有很多跑道和機會。

Within the Vehicles category, just to say, Matchbox also performed well. Disney Pixar Cars continue to show that it's an evergreen brand under our management, with double-digit growth in the fourth quarter. And all in all, we're in a great place and expect to continue to see growth in '24 and beyond.

在車輛類別中，火柴盒也表現出色。迪士尼皮克斯汽車總動員繼續表明它是我們管理下的常青品牌，第四季度實現了兩位數的成長。總而言之，我們處於一個很好的位置，並期望在 24 年及以後繼續看到成長。

Great. And then, Anthony, just a quick question on free cash flow. So you're expecting about $200 million of lower free cash flow in 2024. EBITDA is expected to grow. Is there some type of working capital issue that's sort of causing the lower free cash flow number? Or maybe you could walk us through that.

偉大的。然後，安東尼，我想問一個關於自由現金流的簡單問題。因此，您預計 2024 年自由現金流將減少約 2 億美元。EBITDA 預計將成長。是否存在某種類型的營運資金問題導致自由現金流量下降？或者也許你可以引導我們完成這個過程。

Sure. I wouldn't call it an issue per se. I think the way to look at it is, it was outstanding performance in 2023, over $700 million of free cash flow at 75% conversion from EBITDA. And the key driver of that is, I would say, an outsized reduction in our inventory levels, right? So we've been working on this for quite some time and have seen sequential improvements over, I would say, the last 6 quarters. And ended the year with inventories down $322 million or 36%, and that's having a significant impact on our free cash flow performance in 2023. In terms of 2024, I would characterize the $500 million as a strong, well, cash flow and about a 50% EBITDA conversion based on the midpoint of the guidance. So we feel good about 2023, especially, and we feel good about the expected level in 2024.

當然。我不會稱之為問題本身。我認為看待它的方式是，它在 2023 年表現出色，自由現金流超過 7 億美元，EBITDA 轉換率為 75%。我想說，其關鍵驅動因素是我們庫存水準的大幅減少，對嗎？因此，我們已經在這方面努力了一段時間，並且在過去 6 個季度中看到了連續的改進。截至年底，庫存下降了3.22 億美元，即36%，這對我們2023 年的自由現金流表現產生了重大影響。就2024 年而言，我將這5 億美元描述為強勁、良好的現金流，大約是基於指導中點的 50% EBITDA 轉換。因此，我們尤其對 2023 年感覺良好，對 2024 年的預期水準也感覺良好。

And we will take our next question from Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson.

我們將回答 Linda Bolton-Weiser 和 D.A. 提出的下一個問題。戴維森。

I was wondering if you could give us some more information on the cadence of the $200 million of cost savings over the next few years. Is it weighted more toward one year or another? And then how much in cost savings are you figuring into your guidance for 2024?

我想知道您能否向我們提供更多有關未來幾年節省 2 億美元成本的節奏的信息。它更傾向於一年還是另一年？那麼您在 2024 年的指導中考慮了多少成本節約呢？

Sure. To answer the last part, first, Linda, we expect about $60 million of savings from the program in 2024. I would say, in terms of cadence, I would think kind of an even distribution over the next 3 years. So as we talked, targeting $200 million by the third year, again, coming equally. And in terms of P&L distribution, about 70% coming out of cost of goods sold and 30% out of SG&A.

當然。為了回答最後一部分，首先，Linda，我們預計該計劃到 2024 年將節省約 6000 萬美元。我想說，就節奏而言，我認為未來 3 年的分配會比較均勻。正如我們所說，目標是到第三年達到 2 億美元，同樣達到同樣的目標。就損益分配而言，約 70% 來自銷售成本，30% 來自 SG&A。

Okay. And then, can you comment -- I mean there's been some commentary made out there about the fact that you should do something more dramatic with your Fisher-Price business and American Girl. And now you're announcing that American Girl will sort of be integrated. Maybe you can just explain what are the benefits of integrating that American Girl into the North American organization.

好的。然後，你能評論一下嗎——我的意思是，有一些評論說你應該對你的費雪公司和美國女孩做一些更戲劇性的事情。現在你宣布《美國女孩》將被整合。也許你可以解釋一下將那個美國女孩融入北美組織有什麼好處。

And then also, I mean, I do think that American Girl has had some trouble in general with growth in the last couple of years. So it seems to me that doing something with that business is more of a stand-alone -- I kind of don't think you're going to get rid of Fisher-Price. That would just be my guess, but maybe you could just comment on these businesses.

而且，我的意思是，我確實認為《美國女孩》在過去幾年的成長方面總體上遇到了一些麻煩。因此，在我看來，對該業務的開展更像是一項獨立的業務——我認為你不會擺脫費雪公司。這只是我的猜測，但也許你可以對這些企業發表評論。

Thank you, Linda. Without commenting specifically about any one brand, we believe we have a very strong portfolio. We always evaluate our portfolio to position the company for growth, in line with our strategy to create long-term shareholder value. And you obviously assume that whatever we announced today has been in play for a while, and these are things that we take our time to consider and analyze.

謝謝你，琳達。在不具體評論任何一個品牌的情況下，我們相信我們擁有非常強大的產品組合。我們始終評估我們的投資組合，以幫助公司成長，並符合我們創造長期股東價值的策略。您顯然會認為我們今天宣布的任何內容已經發揮了一段時間的作用，而這些都是我們花時間考慮和分析的事情。

As it relates to American Girl, it's a valued asset within our portfolio, with significant -- a significant fan base and a really, really good product. We continue to progress our strategy to optimize the retail footprint and consumer omnichannel experience. We saw improvement in sales trends in the fourth quarter. We opened a new L.A. flagship store, and all 3 flagship stores achieved same-store sales growth for the year.

因為它與《美國女孩》有關，所以它是我們產品組合中的寶貴資產，擁有大量的粉絲基礎和非常非常好的產品。我們持續推動優化零售足跡和消費者全通路體驗的策略。我們看到第四季銷售趨勢有所改善。我們在洛杉磯新開了一家旗艦店，全年 3 家旗艦店均實現同店銷售成長。

We recently announced the American Girl movie in partnership with Paramount, and just announced today our latest collaboration with Disney Princess and Frozen. So the brand is very much thriving with a lot of activity. And the -- moving American Girl to be part of the commercial organization is about helping us leverage our direct-to-consumer capabilities and drive demand, as we did so well with Mattel Creations.

我們最近宣布了與派拉蒙合作拍攝的《美國女孩》電影，今天又宣布了與迪士尼公主和《冰雪奇緣》的最新合作。因此，該品牌非常蓬勃發展，並進行了大量活動。讓 American Girl 成為商業組織的一部分是為了幫助我們利用直接面向消費者的能力並推動需求，正如我們在 Mattel Creations 中所做的那樣。

We think the issue -- the product is great. We're looking to strengthen the commercial model and believe that within our -- within our North America organization, we have very strong capabilities as it relates to the direct to consumer. We are very confident in the long-term value of American Girl and continue to always evaluate our portfolio and position the company for long-term growth.

我們認為問題是——產品很棒。我們正在尋求加強商業模式，並相信在我們的北美組織內，我們擁有非常強大的能力，因為它與直接面向消費者有關。我們對 American Girl 的長期價值非常有信心，並將繼續評估我們的投資組合併為公司的長期成長做好定位。

We will take our next question from Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

我們將回答瑞銀集團的 Arpine Kocharyan 提出的下一個問題。

I apologize. You mentioned M&A as a potential use of capital. Could you just comment what would that look like for you in terms of criteria for acquisition? If you could just update us what those criteria would look like, that would be great.

我道歉。您提到併購是一種潛在的資本用途。您能否評論一下您的收購標準？如果你能告訴我們這些標準是什麼樣的，那就太好了。

Yes, Arpine, and thank you. We talked about our M&A approach before. Consistent with our capital allocation strategy, we are going to, first of all, when it comes to deploying capital, first of all, it's about organic growth and maintaining our investment-grade rating with a leverage ratio between 2x and 2.5x debt to adjusted EBITDA. Now with our strong balance sheet and significant cash balance, we have the flexibility to look at more opportunities to grow the business, and this is M&A and share repurchases.

是的，阿爾平，謝謝你。我們之前討論過我們的併購方法。根據我們的資本配置策略，我們首先在資本配置方面，首先是關於有機增長，並以調整後債務槓桿率在 2 倍至 2.5 倍之間維持我們的投資級評級。息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤。現在，憑藉我們強大的資產負債表和大量現金餘額，我們可以靈活地尋找更多發展業務的機會，這就是併購和股票回購。

As it relates to M&A, the criteria is going to look for opportunities that are strategic, that are accretive, that will help us improve our growth profile and create economic value for our shareholders. And the terminology we used in the past, the way we said is that we are looking to do things that will be obvious to our investors. We're going to be smart, methodical. We worked very hard to put the company on a very strong financial footing as we are today. And we will make sure that we will not change that if we do an M&A or pursue external opportunities for growth.

就併購而言，標準將尋找策略性、增值性機會，這將有助於我們改善成長狀況並為股東創造經濟價值。我們過去使用的術語，我們所說的方式是，我們正在尋求做對我們的投資者來說顯而易見的事情。我們會變得聰明、有條理。我們非常努力地工作，使公司擁有了像今天這樣強大的財務基礎。我們將確保，如果我們進行併購或尋求外部成長機會，我們不會改變這一點。

We will take our next question from Jim Chartier with Monness, Crespi, Hardt.

我們將回答 Jim Chartier 和 Monness、Crespi、Hardt 提出的下一個問題。

Anthony, the deflation is a big driver of gross margin in fourth quarter. Can you just kind of walk through the drivers of that? And then how does that play into the gross margin outlook for 2024?

安東尼，通貨緊縮是第四季毛利率的一大推動因素。您能簡單介紹一下其驅動因素嗎？那麼這對 2024 年毛利率前景有何影響？

Sure. As you saw in our bridge, we increased gross margin 570 basis points in the fourth quarter and 340 of that was deflation. So we did see deflation in both logistics, primarily ocean freight, as well as on our resin cost, and that's coming through in the P&L in the fourth quarter. I mean, together with lower inventory management costs and cost savings and favorable mix, we feel really good about where we ended on gross margin. As I look to the full year, right, inflation was a slight benefit, primarily driven again by ocean freight and resin.

當然。正如您在我們的橋樑中看到的那樣，我們第四季度的毛利率增加了 570 個基點，其中 340 個基點是通貨緊縮。因此，我們確實看到了物流（主要是海運）以及樹脂成本的通貨緊縮，這在第四季度的損益表中反映出來。我的意思是，加上較低的庫存管理成本和成本節約以及有利的組合，我們對毛利率的最終結果感到非常滿意。當我展望全年時，通貨膨脹是一個輕微的好處，主要是由海運和樹脂再次推動的。

And as we turn to 2024, we do expect 100 to 150 basis points of gross margin expansion. And the two primary drivers are actually savings from our Optimizing for Profitable Growth Program as well as fixed cost absorption benefits as we resume normal production levels following the pullback in 2023. And those will be partly offset as we wrap some of the Barbie movie-related benefits.

展望 2024 年，我們預期毛利率將成長 100 至 150 個基點。這兩個主要驅動因素實際上是我們的獲利成長優化計畫帶來的節省，以及我們在2023 年產量回落後恢復正常生產水準時的固定成本吸收效益。當我們包裝一些與芭比電影相關的內容時，這些將被部分抵消好處。

We don't expect inflation/deflation to have a material impact in 2024. Although we do expect to see favorability in ocean freight, we do see a headwind on wages and salaries within our cost of goods sold line. And then in terms of phasing, probably some deflation in the first half and that reversing in the second half.

我們預計通膨/通貨緊縮不會在 2024 年產生重大影響。儘管我們確實預期海運會受到青睞，但我們確實看到銷售成本線內的工資和薪水面臨阻力。然後就階段性而言，上半年可能會出現一些通貨緊縮，下半年情況會出現逆轉。

And then you highlighted Mattel163 growth in the year. Could you just kind of walk through that business, what is kind of the growth going forward for that business? And then I noticed that the equity income line was actually down for the quarter and year despite the revenues growing for that business. So just curious why the profitability is lower?

然後您強調了 Mattel163 今年的成長。您能否簡單介紹一下該業務，該業務未來的成長如何？然後我注意到，儘管該業務的收入正在成長，但該季度和年度的股權收入線實際上有所下降。所以只是好奇為什麼獲利能力較低？

Yes. So we have been very successful with our Mattel163 business. Sales grew to almost $200 million in 2023 inside of the joint venture with -- behind the success between UNO, Phase 10 and Skip-Bo. The reason on the P&L that our earnings from equity affiliates is down slightly is that we are making investments in that business, both marketing current games and development costs around innovating around future games.

是的。因此，我們的 Mattel163 業務非常成功。到 2023 年，UNO、Phase 10 和 Skip-Bo 之間的合資企業的銷售額將成長到近 2 億美元。損益表上我們來自股權附屬公司的收入略有下降的原因是我們正在對該業務進行投資，包括行銷當前遊戲和圍繞未來遊戲創新的開發成本。

And we will take our next question from Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

我們將回答高盛史蒂芬‧拉斯奇克 (Stephen Laszczyk) 提出的下一個問題。

For Ynon or maybe Anthony, on Barbie, could you perhaps impact some of the underlying assumptions in your outlook for the brand in '24? I think you mentioned that you expect sales to be down year-over-year. I appreciate that there is the $150 million revenue hard comp from the movie last year. But maybe adjusting for that, to what degree do you expect to see any sustained momentum from the brand in 2024?

對於伊農（Ynon）或安東尼（Anthony）來說，對於芭比娃娃（Barbie）來說，您能否影響您對 24 年品牌前景的一些基本假設？我想您提到您預計銷售額將年減。我很欣賞這部電影去年帶來的 1.5 億美元的硬收入。但也許對此進行調整，您預計該品牌在 2024 年能在多大程度上保持持續成長動能？

Yes. Stephen, the Barbie had a very strong finish for the year, with the fourth quarter growing 24%, and this was across the brand, toys and the benefits associated with the movie. The movie continue to play very well. It was a cultural phenomenon. It lifted the brand. It brought in the audience. And it played well also with adults, and especially with collectors.

是的。史蒂芬《芭比》今年的表現非常強勁，第四季成長了 24%，這體現在品牌、玩具以及與電影相關的收益方面。這部電影繼續放映得很好。這是一種文化現象。它提升了品牌。它吸引了觀眾。它也很受成年人，尤其是收藏家的歡迎。

Within that, the Barbie Dreamhouse had an excellent year as well. And Barbie, as a whole, continued to gain share and perform very strongly. A lot of it was due -- was related to the movie. It was the benefit of the movie, but not only. It's just the strength and the cultural resonance of the brand. And we did a lot of work around that to make sure we capture the moment and build on that.

其中，芭比夢幻屋也度過了優秀的一年。而芭比娃娃作為一個整體，繼續獲得份額並且表現非常強勁。其中很多都是到期的——與電影有關。這是電影的好處，但不只如此。這只是品牌的實力和文化共鳴。我們圍繞著這個問題做了很多工作，以確保我們捕捉到這一時刻並以此為基礎。

In '24, we will be celebrating Barbie's 65th anniversary, with a lot of activations around that and more product that will celebrate the brand's past and future. We are looking to leverage the broader audience to launch new products, especially for adult collectors, and trying to reach and engage pop culture fans and also reach all the kids and brought in the audience after the movie's success.

24 年，我們將慶祝芭比娃娃誕生 65 週年，並圍繞這一主題開展大量活動，並推出更多產品來慶祝品牌的過去和未來。我們希望利用更廣泛的受眾推出新產品，特別是針對成人收藏家，並試圖接觸和吸引流行文化粉絲，並接觸所有孩子，並在電影成功後吸引觀眾。

We also expect to see shelf space expansion in the second half and more customized product line that we will support with a unique system of play that we will talk more about in our March investor presentation. And separately from that, there will also be content on Netflix that will continue to play -- offer the drumbeat of the content engagement with fans around the brand.

我們也預計下半年貨架空間將擴大，我們將透過獨特的遊戲系統來支援更多客製化的產品線，我們將在三月份的投資者演示中詳細討論這個系統。除此之外，Netflix 上還將繼續播放一些內容，為品牌周圍的粉絲提供內容互動的鼓點。

And we will take our next question from Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通克里斯多福霍弗斯提出的下一個問題。

So as you think about -- I have 2 questions. So first, as you think about like the excess inventory that is in the market, can you talk about where you're seeing that in terms of what categories?

正如你所想，我有兩個問題。首先，當您想到市場上的過剩庫存時，您能談談您在哪些類別中看到了這種情況嗎？

And then as a follow-up, as you think about the prospect for your cost deflating, do retailers typically try to go and recapture some of that in terms of better pricing or better margins? And is it your expectation that are you planning for these current freight rates to sort of stay intact at these levels into the back half of the year?

接下來，當您考慮成本縮減的前景時，零售商通常是否會嘗試透過更好的定價或更高的利潤來重新奪回一些成本？您是否預期目前的運價在今年下半年維持不變？

Yes. As it comes to the retail inventory levels, as we said, they are slightly elevated. I think slightly is the key word there, and I can't point you to any specific category or any geographic region where we have the issue. It's not that significant. As we said, we made significant headways in bringing down retail inventory levels in 2023. And in fact, as we wrap it, it's going to be a tailwind in 2024.

是的。正如我們所說，零售庫存水準略有上升。我認為“輕微”是那裡的關鍵字，我無法向您指出我們遇到問題的任何特定類別或任何地理區域。這並不那麼重要。正如我們所說，我們在 2023 年降低零售庫存水準方面取得了重大進展。事實上，正如我們總結的那樣，這將成為 2024 年的利多因素。

As it relates to your other question, if you go back in time, we have experienced significant cost inflation over the last several years. And it isn't until the second half of 2023 that we actually saw some deflation come through. And so in terms of working with our retailers, we will manage the situation accordingly. We don't plan for any broad-based pricing changes in 2024, and again, work closely with our retailers on this front.

由於這與您的其他問題相關，如果您回到過去，我們在過去幾年中經歷了嚴重的成本通膨。直到 2023 年下半年，我們才真正看到一些通貨緊縮出現了。因此，在與我們的零售商合作方面，我們將相應地處理這種情況。我們不計劃在 2024 年進行任何大範圍的價格調整，並再次與我們的零售商在這方面密切合作。

Got it. And then just in terms of the -- how you're planning for freight rates. Obviously, there's a lot of noise in the world, and ocean freight rates are up globally, not like they were, certainly, in 2021. But I guess, how are you planning for freight rates? And is that -- are you expecting them to remain elevated through the back half of the year when a lot of the shipments start churning through? Or how do you manage that sort of contracting versus spot process?

知道了。然後就您如何規劃運費而言。顯然，世界上有很多噪音，全球海運運費都在上漲，當然與 2021 年不同。但我想，你們對運費有何計畫？那麼，當大量出貨量開始大量增加時，您是否預計它們會在今年下半年保持在高水準？或者你如何管理這種合約與現貨流程？

Yes. This is a situation, obviously, we're monitoring very closely. I would say, to date, it has not had a material impact. And we've made some assumptions around ocean freight declining in 2024 versus 2023. But like I said, we'll continue to watch what's happening.

是的。顯然，我們正在密切監視這種情況。我想說，到目前為止，它還沒有產生實質影響。我們對 2024 年海運費較 2023 年下降做出了一些假設。但正如我所說，我們將繼續關注正在發生的情況。

We will take our next question from Megan Alexander with Morgan Stanley.

我們將回答摩根士丹利梅根亞歷山大的下一個問題。

I wanted to go back to James' question at the beginning and just your comments on lapping the destock being a tailwind this year. You're guiding to flat sales. You quantified $125 million of Barbie-related movie sales. So if you have to kind of -- if we assume you give that back this year, that more or less implies underlying, call it, low single-digit sales growth. You're talking POS expectation, I think, is flat.

我想回到詹姆斯一開始的問題，以及你關於今年去庫存是順風的評論。您正在引導銷售持平。您量化了 1.25 億美元的芭比相關電影銷售額。因此，如果你必須——如果我們假設你今年會回饋，這或多或少意味著潛在的，稱之為低位數銷售成長。我認為你說的是 POS 預期持平。

So is that, call it, 2% benefit the tailwind from lapping the destocking? And just from a timing perspective, you're saying we're back to more historical shipping patterns, the -- but retailer inventory is slightly elevated. So do we see that 2 points in the first half, just given the lap? Or is it more of a back-half opportunity?

那麼，2% 是否會因去庫存而受益？僅從時間角度來看，您是說我們回到了更歷史的運輸模式，但零售商庫存略有增加。那我們在上半場看到 2 分嗎？還是這更像是後半場的機會？

Yes. So let me try to unpack the top line guidance a bit for 2024. As we said, comparable in constant currency. And from a category perspective, Vehicles, up; Infant, Toddler, Preschool and Challenger categories, flat; and Dolls, down. The other way to look at it is in the context here, as Ynon said, we do expect the industry to decline, but not to the extent it did in 2023.

是的。因此，讓我試著稍微解讀一下 2024 年的營收指引。正如我們所說，以固定匯率計算，可比較。從品類來看，車輛上升；嬰兒、幼兒、學前班和挑戰者類別，持平；和娃娃，下來。從另一個角度來看，正如 Ynon 所說，我們確實預計該行業會下降，但不會達到 2023 年的程度。

Against that backdrop, we expect our POS to be flat, which implies significant and continuing share gains. And then there's a plus and a minus, right? The plus is, we're going to wrap the inventory reduction in 2023. That's a tailwind to 2024, but that's being offset by the wrap related to the benefits associated with the Barbie movie. So there's several pluses and minuses in there, and hopefully, that helps, Megan.

在此背景下，我們預計我們的 POS 將持平，這意味著份額將持續大幅成長。然後還有一個加號和一個減號，對嗎？好處是，我們將在 2023 年完成庫存削減。這是 2024 年的順風車，但這被與芭比電影相關的收益相關的包裝所抵消。因此，其中有一些優點和缺點，希望這對梅根有所幫助。

Okay. I guess, just anything on the timing, we know that $125 million was more so the third quarter. I guess, just your sales were down significantly in the first half of last year. So is it -- but you said more normal. So is it flat over the year? I guess, like is it -- can you help us a little bit on timing?

好的。我想，就時間而言，我們知道第三季的銷售額為 1.25 億美元更多。我猜，就是去年上半年你們的銷售額大幅下降了。也是如此——但你說比較正常。那麼全年是否持平？我想，是這樣的──你能在時間安排上幫我們一點忙嗎？

Yes, sure. I think in the context of our $5 billion of sales, as I said earlier, we do expect kind of a return to historical patterns in terms of shipments. So we don't really see any material change in the cadence between 2023 and 2024.

是的，當然。我認為，正如我之前所說，在我們 50 億美元銷售額的背景下，我們確實預計出貨量會回歸到歷史模式。因此，我們實際上並沒有看到 2023 年至 2024 年節奏發生任何重大變化。

Okay. And then I think just on the cost savings. I think you said 70% kind of in cost of goods. Can you help us unpack maybe how much of that just this year is related to the closing of the China manufacturing plan? And then maybe can you just spend some time expanding on the other things you're doing that's driving the $200 million of savings.

好的。然後我想到的只是節省成本。我想你說的是 70% 的商品成本。您能幫我們分析今年的情況有多少與中國製造計畫的結束有關嗎？然後，也許您可以花一些時間擴展您正在做的其他事情，從而節省 2 億美元。

I guess you've taken out a lot of costs over the last couple of years. So I'm just trying to understand maybe how much is pure cost takeout versus maybe more productivity-type efficiencies.

我猜你在過去幾年裡已經花了很多成本。所以我只是想了解純粹的成本支出與生產力類型的效率相比可能有多少。

Yes. Sure. As you suggested, look, we have a strong track record of identifying and executing against our cost savings commitments. And as we announced today, we're launching this Optimizing for Profitable Growth Program. It's a combination of looking for and achieving efficiencies, which really leveraged our global scale, as well as cost-saving opportunities within our supply chain, including our manufacturing footprint.

是的。當然。正如您所建議的，我們在確定和執行成本節約承諾方面擁有良好的記錄。正如我們今天所宣布的，我們將啟動此「優化獲利成長計畫」。這是尋求和實現效率的結合，這真正利用了我們的全球規模，以及我們供應鏈（包括我們的製造足跡）內的成本節約機會。

So we did talk about taking out one of our China plants. That's not going to impact 2024, that's more later, given the time horizon. But we have a number of productivity initiatives planned for our supply chain as well as optimizing our geographic sourcing on product, which is going to help in 2024. So we expect about $60 million total from the program in 2024. Again, a combination of cost of goods sold and SG&A, and very confident in our ability to achieve that.

所以我們確實討論過要撤掉我們在中國的一家工廠。這不會影響 2024 年，考慮到時間範圍，影響會更晚。但我們為我們的供應鏈規劃了許多生產力計劃，並優化我們的產品地理採購，這將在2024 年有所幫助。因此，我們預計2024 年該計劃的總收入約為6000 萬美元。同樣，綜合成本銷售商品和 SG&A，並且對我們實現這一目標的能力非常有信心。

We will take our final question from Drew Crum with Stifel.

我們將接受 Stifel 的 Drew Crum 提出的最後一個問題。

Ynon, a couple of years ago, you suggested that Dolls would be the fastest or one of the fastest-growing segments of the toy industry on a global basis. As you enter a new year, what is your updated view on the category and Mattel's positioning? Any catalysts on the horizon we can look forward to as it relates to your business? And then I have a follow-up.

Ynon，幾年前，您曾表示，玩偶將是全球玩具產業中成長最快或成長最快的細分市場之一。進入新的一年，您對該品類以及美泰的定位有何最新看法？我們可以期待與您的業務相關的任何催化劑嗎？然後我有一個後續行動。

Yes, thanks, Drew. Yes, we couldn't be happier with our performance in the Dolls category. And we're going to have a lot more to share with you at our Investor Day. There's a pretty deep analysis, a lot of exciting innovation, and we'll break it down by each of our key brands. We do expect -- just to give you a bit of a preview, we do expect the category to be down in 2024. But over time, it's a healthy category. It's competitive. It's driven by innovation.

是的，謝謝，德魯。是的，我們對玩偶類別中的表現感到非常滿意。我們將在投資者日與您分享更多內容。其中有相當深入的分析，有許多令人興奮的創新，我們將按每個關鍵品牌進行細分。我們確實預計——只是為了給您一些預覽，我們確實預計該類別將在 2024 年下降。但隨著時間的推移，它會成為一個健康的類別。這是有競爭力的。它由創新驅動。

And within that, we expect to continue to gain share, with a very strong portfolio of some of the strongest brands in the industry that we are managing with -- as part of our portfolio strategy, with each of our key brands having its own lane, with its own clear purpose and methodology. And Lisa McKnight, our Chief Brand Officer, will talk about that in more detail at our presentation in March.

其中，我們預計將繼續獲得份額，透過我們正在管理的行業中一些最強大品牌的非常強大的投資組合——作為我們投資組合策略的一部分，我們的每個關鍵品牌都有自己的車道，有自己明確的目的和方法論。我們的首席品牌長麗莎·麥克奈特 (Lisa McKnight) 將在三月的演講中更詳細地討論這一點。

Okay. Perfect. And then maybe for Anthony, can you remind us what percentage of manufacturing is sourced from China, I guess, before and after the closure of the plant?

好的。完美的。然後，安東尼，您能否提醒我們，我猜，在工廠關閉之前和之後，來自中國的製造業百分比是多少？

I'm sorry, Drew. I'm going to answer that one again, in case we were on mute. So the question was, what's the percent of product out of China? We're at about 50%, plus or minus. We have a very diversified manufacturing footprint, both on our own facilities as well as third-party. And once we close that plant in China, that will come down a bit from there going forward.

對不起，德魯。我會再次回答這個問題，以防我們處於靜音狀態。那麼問題來了，中國生產的產品所佔的比例是多少？我們大約是 50%，上下左右。我們擁有非常多元化的製造足跡，既有我們自己的工廠，也有第三方的工廠。一旦我們關閉了中國的工廠，未來的銷量將會下降。

And ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn the call back to Chairman and CEO, Mr. Ynon Kreiz, for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，這就是我們今天提問的時間了。現在，我將把電話轉回給董事長兼執行長 Ynon Kreiz 先生，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for your questions today. In conclusion, this was a very strong fourth quarter for the company, with double-digit growth, both at the top line and bottom line, and continued margin expansion. We ended the year with the strongest balance sheet we've had in years, putting us in an excellent position to continue to execute our strategy.

謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。總而言之，對於該公司來說，這是一個非常強勁的第四季度，營收和利潤均實現兩位數成長，利潤率持續擴張。我們以多年來最強勁的資產負債表結束了這一年，這使我們處於繼續執行我們的策略的絕佳位置。

As we look to 2024, we believe we are very well positioned competitively, and we'll continue to outpace the industry and gain market share. And we talked today about 2 important programs that we put in place for the -- one is for the $1 billion of share repurchase and the other one is the Optimizing for Profitable Growth Program of $200 million savings over the next 3 years.

展望 2024 年，我們相信我們處於非常有利的競爭地位，我們將繼續超越行業並獲得市場份額。今天我們討論了兩項重要計畫——一項是 10 億美元的股票回購，另一項是未來 3 年內節省 2 億美元的獲利成長優化計畫。

So we look forward to discussing more about our strategy and our road map for the year and beyond at our investor presentation in March. So please look out for more details about that. We'll have a lot more to share with you then. And now I'll turn the call back over to Dave.

因此，我們期待在三月的投資者演講中更多地討論我們的策略和今年及以後的路線圖。因此，請留意有關此內容的更多詳細資訊。屆時我們將有更多內容與您分享。現在我將把電話轉回給戴夫。

Thank you, Ynon, and thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. The replay of this call will be available via webcast beginning at about 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time today. The webcast link can be found in the Events and Presentations section of our Investors section of our corporate website, corporate.mattel.com. Thank you for participating on today's call.

謝謝伊農，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。本次電話會議的重播將於晚上 8:30 左右開始透過網路直播進行。今天東部時間。網路廣播連結可以在我們公司網站 Corporate.mattel.com 投資者部分的活動和演示部分找到。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call, and we thank you for your participation.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。