Mattel Inc (MAT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, my name is Jessica, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mattel Inc., fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

    您好,我叫潔西卡,今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在,我歡迎大家參加美泰公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Jenn Kettnich, VP of Investor Relations at Mattel. You may begin.

    (操作員指示)現在,我想將電話交給美泰投資者關係副總裁 Jenn Kettnich。你可以開始了。

  • Jenn Kettnich - Vice President - Investor Relations

    Jenn Kettnich - Vice President - Investor Relations

  • Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are Ynon Kreiz, Mattel's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Anthony DiSilvestro, Mattel's Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝接線員,大家下午好。今天與我一起出席的還有美泰董事長兼執行長 Ynon Kreiz;以及美泰財務長安東尼·迪西爾維斯特羅(Anthony DiSilvestro)。

  • As you know, this afternoon, we reported Mattel's fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results. We will begin today's call with the Ynon and Anthony providing commentary on our results, after which we will provide some time for questions.

    如大家所知,今天下午我們報告了美泰兒2024年第四季和全年財務表現。今天的電話會議將由 Ynon 和 Anthony 就我們的結果發表評論,之後我們將提供一些時間來回答問題。

  • Today's discussion, earnings release, and slide presentation may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators, which are defined in the slide presentation and earnings release appendices.

    今天的討論、收益報告和幻燈片簡報可能會引用某些非 GAAP 財務指標和關鍵績效指標,這些指標和指標在幻燈片簡報和收益報告附錄中有定義。

  • Please note that gross billings figures referenced on this call will be stated in constant currency, unless stated otherwise. References made throughout this call to historical market share and market share rankings are sourced from Circana.

    請注意,除非另有說明,本次電話會議中引用的總帳單數字將以固定貨幣表示。本次電話會議中提到的歷史市佔率和市佔率排名均來自 Circana。

  • Our earnings release, slide presentation, and supplemental non-GAAP information can be accessed through the Investors section of our corporate website corporate.mattel.com and the information required by Regulation G regarding non-GAAP financial measures as well as information regarding our key performance indicators is included in those documents.

    我們的收益報告、幻燈片演示和補充非公認會計準則資訊可透過我們公司網站 corporate.mattel.com 的投資者部分訪問,並且這些文件包含了 G 條例所要求的有關非公認會計準則財務指標的資訊以及有關我們的關鍵績效指標的資訊。

  • The preliminary financial results included in the earnings release and slide presentation represent the most current information available to management. The company's actual results when disclosed in its Form 10-K may differ as a result of the completion of the company's financial closing procedures, final adjustments, completion of the review by the company's independent or registered public accounting firm, and other developments that may arise between now and the disclosure of the final results.

    收益報告和幻燈片簡報中包含的初步財務結果代表管理層可獲得的最新資訊。本公司在 10-K 表格中揭露的實際結果可能會因公司財務結算程序的完成、最終調整、公司獨立或註冊會計師事務所的審查完成以及現在和最終結果揭露之間可能出現的其他情況而有所不同。

  • Before we begin, I'd like to caution you that certain statements made during the call are forward-looking, including statements related to the future performance of our business, brands, categories, and product lines.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您,電話會議中做出的某些陳述是前瞻性的,包括與我們的業務、品牌、類別和產品線的未來表現相關的陳述。

  • Any statements we make about the future are, by their nature, uncertain. These statements are based on currently available information and assumptions, and they are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

    我們對未來所做的任何陳述,從本質上來說,都是不確定的。這些聲明是基於目前可用的資訊和假設,並且受到許多重大風險和不確定因素的影響,這些因素可能導致我們的實際結果與前瞻性聲明中的預測不同。

  • We describe some of these uncertainties in the risk factors section of our latest Form 10-K annual report, our latest Form 10-Q quarterly report, our most recent earnings release and slide presentation, and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time, as well as in other public statements. Mattel does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so, except as required by law.

    我們在最新的 10-K 表年度報告、最新的 10-Q 表季度報告、最新的收益報告和幻燈片演示、我們不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件以及其他公開聲明中的風險因素部分中描述了其中一些不確定性。美泰不會更新前瞻性陳述,並明確表示不承擔任何更新前瞻性聲明的義務,除非法律要求。

  • Now I'd like to turn the call over to Ynon.

    現在我想把電話轉給 Ynon。

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Jenn. Good afternoon, everyone and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call.

    謝謝,Jenn。大家下午好,感謝您參加我們的 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

  • 2024 was another successful year for Mattel as we continue to execute our multi-year strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering.

    2024 年對美泰來說又是成功的一年,我們繼續執行我們的多年策略,以發展我們的 IP 驅動的玩具業務並擴大我們的娛樂產品。

  • Our priorities for 2024 were to grow profitability, expand gross margin, and generate strong free cash flow. We did exactly that: demonstrating operational excellence and achieving all three objectives well ahead of expectations.

    我們 2024 年的首要任務是提高獲利能力、擴大毛利率並產生強勁的自由現金流。我們確實做到了:展示卓越的營運並超越預期地實現所有三個目標。

  • Looking at key financial metrics for the full year as compared to the prior year. Net sales declined 0.5% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 340 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA increased $110 million or 12%. Adjusted earnings per share increased 32% and free cash flow was nearly $600 million.

    與上一年相比,請查看全年的關鍵財務指標。以固定匯率計算,淨銷售額下降了 0.5%。調整後的毛利率提高了340個基點。調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 1.1 億美元,增幅為 12%。調整後每股盈餘成長 32%,自由現金流接近 6 億美元。

  • These results are particularly noteworthy considering the comparison against the success of the Barbie movie, which contributed approximately $100 million of operating income in 2023.

    與芭比電影的成功相比,這些結果尤其值得注意,芭比電影在 2023 年貢獻了約 1 億美元的營業收入。

  • Execution on our toy strategy was strong, and we grew global market share in key categories of dolls, vehicles, and games. We also made meaningful progress on our entertainment strategy across film, television, digital, consumer products, and live experiences.

    我們的玩具策略執行有力,我們在玩偶、車輛和遊戲等主要類別的全球市場份額有所增長。我們的娛樂策略在電影、電視、數位、消費產品和現場體驗方面也取得了重大進展。

  • The Optimizing for Profitable Growth program is tracking ahead of schedule, with $83 million of savings achieved in the year out of our $200 million target by the end of 2026. We also continue to strengthen our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.4 billion in cash after repurchasing $400 million of shares.

    「優化獲利成長」計畫的進度提前,今年已實現節省 8,300 萬美元,而我們的目標是到 2026 年底節省 2 億美元。我們也繼續加強我們的資產負債表,在回購了價值 4 億美元的股票後,年底的現金為 14 億美元。

  • The global toy industry declined slightly in 2024 for Circana, performing better than anticipated and reinforcing our belief that the toy industry has strong fundamentals and will return to growth and continue to grow over time.

    對 Circana 來說,2024 年全球玩具產業略有下滑,表現優於預期,這也進一步證實了我們的信念:玩具產業基本面強勁,將恢復成長並隨著時間的推移繼續增長。

  • In the fourth quarter, we grew top line and achieved very strong profitability. Net sales increased 3% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 200 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA increased 6% and adjusted EPS increased 21%. Topline growth was driven by Vehicles, Action Figures, and Games partly offset by a decline in Dolls and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool.

    第四季度,我們的營業收入成長並實現了非常強勁的獲利能力。以固定匯率計算,淨銷售額成長了 3%。調整後的毛利率提高了200個基點。調整後的 EBITDA 成長 6%,調整後的 EPS 成長 21%。營收成長主要受到車輛、動作人物和遊戲的推動,但被玩偶、嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童銷售額的下滑部分抵消。

  • We made significant progress in scaling our portfolio, optimizing our operations, evolving demand creation, and strengthening our franchise brands. We successfully relaunched catalog IP, strengthened our relationships with major entertainment partners and key retailers, and created innovative and inspiring product lines.

    我們在擴大產品組合、優化營運、發展需求創造和加強特許經營品牌方面取得了重大進展。我們成功重新推出了目錄 IP,加強了與主要娛樂合作夥伴和主要零售商的關係,並創建了創新且鼓舞人心的產品線。

  • Looking at full-year performance by category. Vehicles grew meaningfully driven by Hot Wheels which achieved its seventh consecutive record year. Challenger categories collectively grew, led by double digit growth in games, with UNO achieving its highest year on record and significantly outpacing the industry, and gains in Action Figures with strong WWE and Minecraft product offerings.

    按類別查看全年表現。在風火輪的推動下,汽車銷售量顯著成長,連續第七年創下紀錄。挑戰者類別整體實現成長,其中游戲類別實現兩位數增長,其中 UNO 創下歷史新高並大幅超越行業平均水平,而隨著 WWE 和 Minecraft 產品的強勁推出,可動人偶類別也實現增長。

  • Infant, Toddler, and Preschool was down as we continued to exit Power Wheels and certain product lines in baby gear in line with our strategy. Importantly, Fisher-Price returned to growth this year, driven by Fisher-Price Woods and Little People.

    由於我們根據策略持續退出 Power Wheels 和某些嬰兒用品產品線,嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童的銷售額有所下降。重要的是,在費雪森林玩具和小人物系列的推動下,費雪今年重返成長。

  • Dolls was down primarily due to Barbie as we wrapped the movie in the prior year. Barbie was once again the clear leader in the Dolls category and the number two property in the toy industry overall. Monster High increased for the second consecutive year since its relaunch. American Girl grew, reflecting the progress of its turnaround strategy. And Wicked, and Disney's Moana 2 products performed well and resonated with consumers globally.

    由於芭比娃娃電影去年停播,玩偶銷量下降的主因是芭比娃娃。芭比娃娃再次成為玩偶類別的絕對領導者,並在整個玩具行業中排名第二。《Monster High》自重新推出以來,連續第二年實現收視率成長。美國女孩的成長反映了其轉型策略的進展。《魔法壞女巫》和迪士尼的《莫阿娜 2》產品表現良好,引起了全球消費者的共鳴。

  • We also made further progress with our entertainment strategy. In film, the Masters of the Universe worldwide theatrical release date of June 5, 2026, was announced. The film will start production this month in London.

    我們的娛樂策略也取得了進一步的進展。電影方面,《宇宙巨人》宣布將於 2026 年 6 月 5 日在全球影院上映。該影片將於本月在倫敦開拍。

  • The Matchbox, live-action movie, was greenlit and is now in production, and Monster High and Bob the Builder movies began development. This brings the total number of announced Mattel films in development or production with major studio partners to 16.

    真人電影《火柴盒》已獲批准並投入製作,《怪物高中》和《巴佈建築師》電影也開始製作。這使得美泰兒宣布與主要電影公司合作夥伴開發或製作的電影總數達到 16 部。

  • In television, Hot Wheels Let's Race Season 2 was a top 10 TV show on Netflix in 27 countries. All three Barbie animated premieres ranked in the top 10 on Netflix in multiple countries. And Barney's World ranked as a top 5 children's show on Max as part of a highly anticipated franchise relaunch.

    在電視方面,《風火輪一起競速》第二季是 27 個國家的 Netflix 十大電視節目之一。芭比娃娃的三部動畫片在多個國家的 Netflix 上均位列前十。作為備受期待的系列重新推出的一部分,《巴尼的世界》在 Max 上被評為前五名兒童節目。

  • In digital games, Mattel163, our joint venture with NetEase, continued to grow double digits and exceeded $200 million in gross billings. In live events, The Hot Wheels Legends Tour completed 22 tour stops in 13 countries with attendance growing more than 40% over the prior year.

    在數位遊戲方面,我們與網易的合資公司美泰兒163持續維持兩位數成長,總票房收入超過2億美元。在現場活動中,風火輪傳奇之旅在 13 個國家完成了 22 站巡演,參與人數比前一年增長了 40% 以上。

  • 2025 is our 80th anniversary year. We couldn't be more proud of our mission to create innovative products and experiences that inspire fans, entertain audiences, and develop children through play.

    2025年是我們的80週年紀念。我們對自己的使命感到無比自豪,那就是創造創新的產品和體驗,激勵粉絲、娛樂觀眾並透過遊戲培養孩子。

  • Our 2025 priorities are to grow the top and bottom line while increasing investment in our digital games, self-publishing business to drive long-term growth in line with our capital allocation priorities to invest in organic growth.

    我們 2025 年的重點是增加營收和淨利潤,同時增加對數位遊戲和自主出版業務的投資,以推動長期成長,同時符合我們投資於有機成長的資本配置重點。

  • For the full year, we expect net sales to increase by 2% to 3% on a constant currency basis and adjusted the EPS to grow by 2% to 6%.

    我們預計全年淨銷售額以固定匯率計算將成長 2% 至 3%,調整後每股盈餘將成長 2% 至 6%。

  • This includes the anticipated impact of new US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada imports announced on February 1 and mitigating actions we plan to take, including leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing.

    這包括 2 月 1 日宣布的美國對中國、墨西哥和加拿大進口產品徵收新關稅的預期影響,以及我們計劃採取的緩解措施,包括利用我們供應鏈的優勢和潛在的定價。

  • There are several key drivers in 2025. Across our toy categories, we expect Vehicles to grow with another record year for Hot Wheels, which includes the launch of our Formula 1 partnership. Games to build on UNO's momentum with more innovation and cultural relevance. Action figures to benefit from new product lines tied to the theatrical releases of a Minecraft movie in April and Jurassic World: Rebirth in July, in addition to the global expansion of WWE. Infant toddler and preschool to expand distribution for Fisher Price Wood across major retailers in the US and internationally, and Dolls to see improving trends in Barbie driven by optimizing demand creation, product innovation, and leaning further into momentum with adult fans. We also look forward to the launch of new products ahead of Disney's Snow White theatrical release in March and the second Wicked movie in November.

    2025 年有幾個關鍵驅動因素。在我們的玩具類別中,我們預計車輛類玩具將實現成長,風火輪玩具將再創紀錄,其中包括我們與一級方程式賽車的合作夥伴關係的啟動。遊戲將以更多的創新和文化相關性延續 UNO 的勢頭。除了 WWE 的全球擴張之外,動作人物也將受益於與 4 月《我的世界》電影和 7 月《侏羅紀世界:重生》的戲院上映相關的新產品線。嬰幼兒和學齡前兒童將擴大費雪木製品在美國和國際主要零售商的分銷範圍,而娃娃業務將透過優化需求創造、產品創新和進一步吸引成年粉絲的動力來推動芭比娃娃的不斷改善趨勢。我們也期待迪士尼 3 月《白雪公主》戲院上映和 11 月《魔法壞女巫》第二部電影上映前推出新產品。

  • 2025 will be an exciting year for our in-licensing toy partnerships as Mattel is strengthening its position as a partner of choice for major entertainment companies and sports franchises.

    2025 年將是我們授權玩具合作夥伴關係激動人心的一年,因為美泰正在鞏固其作為主要娛樂公司和體育特許經營權的首選合作夥伴的地位。

  • As it relates to the toy industry, we expect it would be comparable to slightly up in 2025, primarily driven by the theatrical marketplace returning to a more normalized cadence. We believe Mattel is well positioned to increase market share.

    就玩具產業而言,我們預計到 2025 年它將略有成長,這主要得益於戲劇市場回歸更正常化的節奏。我們相信美泰有能力增加市場佔有率。

  • In our entertainment business in 2025, we expect progress to continue on our two films in production and 14 announced films in development. More shows to launch on Netflix, including Hot Wheel's Let's Race Season 3. Barbie's next animated special, a new season of Thomas & Friends and Polly Pocket. New episodes of Barney's World to premiere on Max, and to expand our digital business with the goal of launching our first self-published digital game in 2026.

    在 2025 年的娛樂業務中,我們預計兩部正在製作的電影和 14 部宣布正在開發的電影將繼續取得進展。更多節目將在 Netflix 上推出,包括 Hot Wheel 的《Let's Race》第三季。芭比的下一部動畫特輯,是《湯瑪斯與朋友》和《波莉口袋》的新一季。《巴尼的世界》新劇集將在 Max 上首播,我們將擴大數位業務,目標是在 2026 年推出第一款自主出版的數位遊戲。

  • 2024 was another successful year defined by profit growth, gross margin expansion, and strong cash generation.

    2024 年是另一個成功的一年,其特點是利潤成長、毛利率擴大和強勁的現金創造。

  • I am grateful to the entire Mattel team for their collaboration, innovation, and execution, and for achieving these results. As we progress through 2025, we are well positioned to grow and continue to successfully execute our multi-year strategy and create long-term shareholder value.

    我感謝整個美泰團隊的合作、創新和執行,並取得這些成果。隨著我們邁入 2025 年,我們已做好準備,繼續成功執行我們的多年策略並創造長期股東價值。

  • I will now hand it over to Anthony to cover the financials and our detailed outlook for 2025.

    現在我將把目光移交給安東尼,由他來介紹財務狀況以及我們對 2025 年的詳細展望。

  • As you've heard, Anthony has decided to retire, and I would like to thank him for the important role he has played in steering Mattel to achieve its strongest financial position in many years. The search for his successor is well underway, but you're not hearing the last of him today. Anthony will stay in the CFO role until May 15 and continue as an adviser until August 15 to ensure a smooth transition.

    正如你所聽到的,安東尼已經決定退休,我要感謝他在帶領美泰實現多年來最強勁的財務狀況方面發揮的重要作用。尋找他的繼任者的工作正在順利進行,但今天你不會聽到關於他的最後消息。安東尼將擔任財務長至 5 月 15 日,並繼續擔任顧問至 8 月 15 日,以確保順利過渡。

  • Anthony, over to you.

    安東尼,交給你了。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Ynon. It has been an amazing experience for me in Mattel. It's a great company with a very promising future, and I look forward to supporting a seamless transition.

    謝謝,Ynon。對我來說,在美泰公司工作是一段美好的經驗。這是一家非常出色的公司,前景非常光明,我期待支持其順利過渡。

  • In terms of Mattel's performance in Q4, as you just heard, we grew top line and achieved very strong profitability. Net sales of $1,646 million increased 2% as reported, or 3% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin increased 200 basis points to 50.8%. Adjusted operating income increased 10% to $161 million. Adjusted EPS increased 21% to $0.35 and adjusted EBITIDA increased by $15 million to $249 million.

    就美泰第四季的業績而言,正如您剛才聽到的,我們的營收成長了,並且實現了非常強勁的獲利能力。淨銷售額為 16.46 億美元,按報告成長 2%,或以固定匯率計算成長 3%。調整後毛利率增加200個基點至50.8%。調整後營業收入成長 10% 至 1.61 億美元。調整後的每股盈餘成長 21% 至 0.35 美元,調整後的息稅折舊攤提前利潤增加 1,500 萬美元至 2.49 億美元。

  • Looking at our full-year performance as compared to the prior year. Net sales declined to 1% as reported and 0.5% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 340 basis points to 50.9%. Adjusted operating income increased 15% to $738 million more than offsetting the Barbie movie-related benefits in the prior year. Adjusted EPS increased by 32% to $1.62. Adjusted EBITDA increased $110 million or 12% to $1,058 million and we generated $598 million of free cash flow.

    與去年同期相比,回顧一下我們的全年業績。淨銷售額以報告價格下降 1%,以固定匯率計算則下降 0.5%。調整後毛利率增加340個基點至50.9%。調整後的營業收入成長 15%,達到 7.38 億美元,超過了去年芭比電影相關收益。調整後每股收益成長 32% 至 1.62 美元。調整後的 EBITDA 增加 1.1 億美元(即 12%),達到 10.58 億美元,我們產生了 5.98 億美元的自由現金流。

  • Turning to gross billings and constant currency by category, beginning with the fourth quarter. Overall, gross billings increased to 3%, driven by growth in Vehicles and Challenger categories collectively, partly offset by Dolls as we wrapped the Barbie movie benefits from the prior year and Infant, Toddler, and Preschool as we continue to exit certain product lines into Baby Gear and Power Wheel segments. Total POS declined low single digits. Doll's gross billings declined 3% due primarily to a 13% decline in Barbie, partly offset by growth in Monster High. Vehicles had another outstanding quarter growing 16%, driven primarily by Hot Wheels which grew 17%. Infant, Toddler, and Preschool declined 4% due to the declines in Baby Gear and Power Wheels, partly offset by 4% growth in Fisher-Price, which benefited from Little People and Fisher-Price Wood. We are happy to see Fisher-Price grew and the turnaround strategy starting to bear fruit. Challenger categories collectively grew 6%, driven primarily by double-digit growth in both Action Figures and Games, partly offset by a decline in Building Sets.

    從第四季開始,轉向按類別劃分的總帳單和固定匯率。總體而言,總營業額增長至 3%,這得益於車輛和挑戰者類別的共同增長,但由於我們涵蓋了上一年芭比電影帶來的收益,因此玩偶業務以及嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童業務的營收增長部分抵消了這一增長,因為我們繼續將某些產品線轉移到嬰兒用品和動力輪領域。總 POS 下降了個位數。玩偶總收入下降 3%,主要原因是芭比娃娃的銷量下降了 13%,但 Monster High 的成長部分抵消了下降。汽車類產品又一個季度表現出色,成長 16%,主要受風火輪 (Hot Wheels) 成長 17% 的推動。嬰幼兒和學齡前兒童銷售額下降 4%,原因是嬰兒用品和 Power Wheels 銷售額下降,但費雪玩具銷售增長 4%,部分抵消了這一增長,費雪玩具受益於 Little People 和費雪木製玩具的銷售增長。我們很高興看到費雪公司不斷發展壯大,轉型策略開始取得成效。挑戰者類別整體成長了 6%,主要得益於可動人偶和遊戲的兩位數成長,但建築套裝的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Turning to the full-year. Gross billings were comparable to the prior year, with gains in Vehicles and Challenger categories overall offset by declines in Dolls and Infant, Toddler. and Preschool. POS declined low single digits.

    展望全年。總營業額與去年相當,車輛和挑戰者類別的成長總體上被玩偶和嬰幼兒類別的下降所抵消。和學前班。POS 下降了個位數。

  • Doll's gross billings declined 8% due primarily to the movie-related comparison in Barbie. Barbie gross billings declined 12%. Vehicles had an outstanding year growing 10%, driven by Hot Wheels, die-cast cars, tracks and playsets, and R/C. As Ynon unmentioned, Hot Wheels achieved its seventh consecutive record year. Disney Pixar cars, and Matchbox also contributed to growth. Infant, Toddler, and Preschool declined 4%, primarily due to Baby Gear and Power Wheels reflecting our exit strategy, partly offset by growth in Fisher-Price. Fisher-Price grew 4%, benefiting from the launch of FP Wood and growth in little people partly offset by a decline in infants. Challenger categories collectively grew 3%, driven by games which benefited from double digit growth in UNO and action figures, partly offset by a decline in Building Sets.

    由於芭比娃娃與電影相關的比較,娃娃的總票房收入下降了 8%。芭比娃娃的總票房收入下降了 12%。今年汽車產業表現出色,成長了 10%,主要受風火輪、壓鑄汽車、軌道和玩具套裝以及遙控汽車的推動。正如 Ynon 所提到的,風火輪連續第七年創下了紀錄。迪士尼皮克斯汽車和火柴盒也為成長做出了貢獻。嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童銷售額下降了 4%,主要是因為嬰兒用品和 Power Wheels 反映了我們的退出策略,但被費雪牌銷售額的成長部分抵消了。費雪 (Fisher-Price) 銷售額增長 4%,受益於 FP Wood 產品的推出以及小人物系列產品的增長,但嬰兒系列產品的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。挑戰者類別整體成長了 3%,這得益於 UNO 和動作人物類遊戲的兩位數增長,但建築套裝類遊戲的下滑部分抵消了這一增長。

  • Looking at fourth quarter gross billings by region. North America increased 1%, EMEA increased 10%, Latin America declined 5%, reflecting softness in Mexico, and Asia Pacific grew 10%, driven by strong growth in Australia.

    按地區查看第四季的總營業額。北美成長 1%,歐洲、中東和非洲成長 10%,拉丁美洲下降 5%,反映出墨西哥的疲軟,亞太地區成長 10%,受澳洲強勁成長的推動。

  • Looking at full-year gross billings by region. North America declined 1%, EMEA declined 2%, Latin America declined 1%, and Asia Pacific grew 10%, driven primarily by double-digit growth in Australia.

    查看各地區全年總營業額。北美下降 1%,歐洲、中東和非洲地區下降 2%,拉丁美洲下降 1%,亞太地區成長 10%,主要受澳洲兩位數成長的推動。

  • We ended the year with retail inventory levels comparable to the prior year both in dollars and weeks of supply. While comparable at year end, retail inventory movements had a positive impact on gross billings growth in the fourth quarter, given we're wrapping a more significant seasonal decline in the prior year. We are beginning 2025 with retail inventory levels slightly elevated. Although the inventory is high quality, we expect it will be a headwind to our first quarter performance.

    我們截至今年底的零售庫存水準與前一年相當,無論是金額或供應週數。儘管與年末情況類似,但零售庫存變動對第四季度的總營業額成長產生了正面影響,因為去年同期我們正經歷更為顯著的季節性下滑。2025 年伊始,零售庫存水準將略有上升。儘管庫存品質很高,但我們預計這將對我們第一季的業績產生不利影響。

  • Adjusted gross margin was 50.8% in the quarter, an increase of 200 basis points as compared to 48.8% in the prior year period. This strong increase in margin was driven by several factors. Savings from Optimizing for Profitable Growth added 90 basis points, lower inventory management costs, primarily closeouts and obsolescence, added 90 basis points, supply chain efficiencies, including fixed cost absorption, added 90 basis points, and foreign exchange and other factors added 60 basis points. These gains were partly offset by an 80 basis point negative mix impact as we wrap accretive benefits associated with the Barbie movie in the prior year and cost inflation, which had a 50-basis point impact in the quarter.

    本季調整後毛利率為50.8%,較去年同期的48.8%增加200個基點。利潤率的強勁成長是由多種因素推動的。優化獲利成長帶來的節省增加了 90 個基點,降低庫存管理成本(主要是清倉和淘汰)增加了 90 個基點,供應鏈效率(包括固定成本吸收)增加了 90 個基點,外匯和其他因素增加了 60 個基點。這些收益被 80 個基點的負面組合影響部分抵消,因為我們將上一年與芭比電影相關的增值收益和成本通膨考慮在內,而成本通膨在本季度產生了 50 個基點的影響。

  • For the full year, adjusted gross margin increased 340 basis points to 50.9%. The increase was primarily driven by supply chain efficiencies, cost savings, lower inventory management costs, deflation, and other factors which more than offset the prior benefit associated with the Barbie movie.

    全年調整後毛利率增加340個基點至50.9%。成長的主要原因是供應鏈效率、成本節約、庫存管理成本降低、通貨緊縮以及其他因素,這些因素抵消了芭比電影帶來的先前收益。

  • Moving down the P&L. In the fourth quarter, advertising increased 10% to $257 million, as part of our plans to shift spending into the latter part of the year. Adjusted SG&A increased 2% to $418 million primarily due to higher compensation expenses, partly offset by savings from the Optimizing for Profitable Growth program. For the full year, advertising decreased 3% to $507 million. Adjusted SG&A for the full year increased 5% to $1,493 million. Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was $161 million compared to $147 million, an increase of 10% driven primarily by higher gross margin. For the full year, adjusted operating income increased 15% to $738 million, with adjusted operating income margin expanding 190 basis points to 13.7%. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $249 million compared to $234 million, an increase of 6%. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $1,058 million. Adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter was $0.35 compared to $0.29 in the prior year, an increase of $0.06 or 21%. For the full year, adjusted EPS increased by $0.39 or 32% to $1.62. In addition to the operating income improvement, EPS performance benefited from higher interest income, a lower adjusted tax rate, and higher earnings from our equity method investment in Mattel163, as well as a lower share count from our share repurchase activity.

    降低損益表。作為我們將支出轉移至下半年的計畫的一部分,第四季度的廣告支出增加了 10%,達到 2.57 億美元。調整後的銷售、一般及行政開支增加 2% 至 4.18 億美元,主要原因是薪酬費用增加,但「優化盈利增長」計劃的節省部分抵消了這一影響。全年廣告收入下降 3% 至 5.07 億美元。全年調整後銷售、一般及行政支出成長 5% 至 14.93 億美元。第四季調整後營業收入為 1.61 億美元,去年同期為 1.47 億美元,成長 10%,主要因為毛利率提高。全年調整後營業收入成長 15% 至 7.38 億美元,調整後營業收入利潤率擴大 190 個基點至 13.7%。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.49 億美元,去年同期為 2.34 億美元,成長 6%。全年調整後 EBITDA 成長 12% 至 10.58 億美元。第四季調整後每股收益為 0.35 美元,去年同期為 0.29 美元,增加 0.06 美元,增幅為 21%。全年調整後每股收益增加 0.39 美元或 32%,至 1.62 美元。除了營業收入的改善之外,每股盈餘表現還受益於更高的利息收入、更低的調整後稅率、以及我們對 Mattel163 的權益法投資帶來的更高收益,以及我們股票回購活動帶來的較低股數。

  • Cash flow generation for 2024 was strong. Cash from operations was $801 million compared to $870 million in the prior year. The prior year benefited from lower working capital primarily driven by a significant inventory reduction.

    2024 年的現金流產生強勁。經營活動現金流為 8.01 億美元,去年同期為 8.7 億美元。上一年受益於較低的營運資本,主要由於庫存大幅減少。

  • Capital expenditures were $203 million including $59 million for the acquisition of a new global design center to replace a leased facility. Capital expenditures in the prior year were $160 million. Free cash flow was $598 million compared to $709 million in the prior year.

    資本支出為 2.03 億美元,其中包括用於收購新的全球設計中心以取代租賃設施的 5,900 萬美元。上一年的資本支出為 1.6 億美元。自由現金流為 5.98 億美元,而上年為 7.09 億美元。

  • Consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we repurchased $400 million of Mattel shares in 2024, bringing the total since resuming the program in 2023 to $603 million.

    根據我們的資本配置重點,我們在 2024 年回購了價值 4 億美元的美泰股票,使自 2023 年恢復該計畫以來的總額達到 6.03 億美元。

  • Taking a look at the balance sheet. This was another year of improving our financial position. We finished the year with a cash balance of $1,388 million compared to $1,261 million a year ago. The cash increase reflects our 2024 free cash flow net of shares repurchased.

    看一下資產負債表。這是我們財務狀況不斷改善的另一年。我們今年的現金餘額為 13.88 億美元,而一年前為 12.61 億美元。現金增加反映了我們 2024 年自由現金流扣除回購股票後的餘額。

  • Total debt was $2,334 million consistent with the prior year. Our portfolio is well positioned with no scheduled maturities until 2026. Accounts receivable were $1,003 million compared to $1,082 million, a decline of $79 million. The decline was due to foreign currency translation and a reduction in days sales outstanding.

    總債務為 23.34 億美元,與上年持平。我們的投資組合定位良好,2026 年之前沒有預定到期日。應收帳款為 10.03 億美元,去年同期為 10.82 億美元,減少了 7,900 萬美元。下降是由於外幣折算和應收帳款週轉天數減少所致。

  • Inventory at year end was $502 million compared to $572 million in the prior year, a reduction of $70 million. Our inventory is at the lowest level in recent years.

    年末庫存為 5.02 億美元,而去年同期為 5.72 億美元,減少了 7,000 萬美元。我們的庫存處於近年來的最低水準。

  • Debt to adjusted EBITDA finished the year at 2.2 times, excluding the benefit of our $1.4 billion cash balance. This compares to 2.5 times a year ago. The improved leverage ratio was driven by the growth in adjusted EBITDA.

    年底,債務與調整後 EBITDA 比率為 2.2 倍,其中不包括 14 億美元現金餘額的收益。相比之下,一年前這一數字為 2.5 倍。槓桿率的改善是由調整後的 EBITDA 的成長所推動的。

  • We continue to generate significant cost savings. Under our Optimizing for Profitable Growth program, we achieved cost savings of $24 million in the quarter, with $16 million benefiting cost of goods sold and $7 million in SG&A. For the full year, we realized $83 million of cost savings and are tracking ahead of schedule to achieve the program savings target of $200 million by 2026.

    我們持續實現大幅的成本節約。在我們的「優化獲利成長」計畫下,我們在本季實現了 2,400 萬美元的成本節約,其中 1,600 萬美元來自銷售成本,700 萬美元來自銷售、一般及行政開支。就全年而言,我們實現了 8,300 萬美元的成本節約,並提前實現了 2026 年前 2 億美元的計劃節約目標。

  • Turning to our guidance for 2025. We expect net sales and constant currency to increase by 2% to 3%. The key drivers of expected sales growth include continued momentum in Vehicles and Games driven by Hot Wheels and UNO, in Dolls, the launch of products tied to the theatrical releases of Disney's Snow White and the second Wicked movie, in Infant, Toddler, and Preschool, the global rollout of Fisher-Price Wood, and in Action Figures, the benefit of licensed movie properties, Jurassic World and Minecraft.

    談到我們對 2025 年的指導。我們預計淨銷售額和固定匯率將成長 2% 至 3%。預期銷售成長的主要驅動因素包括:風火輪和 UNO 推動的汽車和遊戲產品持續增長的勢頭;玩偶產品方面,推出與迪士尼《白雪公主》和《魔法壞女巫》第二部電影上映相關的產品;嬰幼兒和學齡前兒童產品方面,費雪木製玩具的全球推出;以及人偶產品方面,獲得《侏羅紀世界》和《我的世界》等人偶電影的推動世界。

  • Foreign currency translation, based on current spot rates, is expected to have a negative impact of approximately 2% points on our net sales performance. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be comparable to the prior year.

    根據當前現貨匯率計算的外幣折算預計將對我們的淨銷售業績產生約 2% 的負面影響。調整後的毛利率預計與前一年相當。

  • Adjusted operating income is expected to be in the range of $740 million to $765 million with the increase primarily driven by net sales growth.

    調整後的營業收入預計在 7.4 億美元至 7.65 億美元之間,成長主要得益於淨銷售額的成長。

  • Moving ahead, we will be guiding to adjusted operating income instead of adjusted EBITDA as we believe adjusted operating income is a more comprehensive profit metric for Mattel. The adjusted tax rate is expected to be 23% to 24% compared to 21% in 2024.

    展望未來,我們將以調整後營業收入而非調整後 EBITDA 為指導,因為我們認為調整後營業收入是美泰兒更全面的利潤指標。調整後的稅率預計將為 23% 至 24%,而 2024 年為 21%。

  • Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.66 to $1.72 compared to $1.62, an increase of 2% to 6%.

    調整後每股收益預計在 1.66 美元至 1.72 美元之間,而之前為 1.62 美元,增長 2% 至 6%。

  • As Ynon said, this includes the anticipated impact of new US tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada imports announced on February 1st and mitigating actions we plan to take, including leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing.

    正如 Ynon 所說,這包括 2 月 1 日宣布的美國新關稅對中國、墨西哥和加拿大進口產品的預期影響,以及我們計劃採取的緩解措施,包括利用我們供應鏈的優勢和潛在的定價。

  • The guidance is also inclusive of increased investments in our digital games self-publishing business to drive long-term growth, which are reflected in SG&A and in line with our capital allocation priorities to invest in organic growth.

    該指引還包括增加對我們的數位遊戲自助出版業務的投資以推動長期成長,這反映在銷售、一般和行政費用中,並符合我們投資於有機增長的資本配置優先事項。

  • We continue to improve productivity and expect to achieve $60 million in additional cost savings during 2025 through our Optimizing for Profitable Growth program. Free cash flow is expected to be approximately $600 million.

    我們將繼續提高生產力,並預計透過「優化獲利成長」計畫在 2025 年實現 6,000 萬美元的額外成本節約。預計自由現金流約 6 億美元。

  • Reflecting confidence in our strategy to create shareholder value, we are targeting $600 million of share repurchases in 2025 subject to market conditions. Together with the $400 million we repurchased in 2024, this will fully utilize our total $1 billion authorization in just two years. The benefit of share purchases is reflected in our EPS guidance.

    為體現我們對創造股東價值策略的信心,我們計劃根據市場狀況在 2025 年回購 6 億美元的股票。加上我們在 2024 年回購的 4 億美元,這將在短短兩年內充分利用我們總計 10 億美元的授權資金。股票購買的好處反映在我們的每股盈餘指引中。

  • The guidance considers what the company is aware of today but remains subject to market volatility, unexpected disruptions, including additional regulatory actions impacting international trade such as tariffs and other macroeconomic risks and uncertainties.

    該指引考慮了公司目前已知曉的情況,但仍受市場波動、意外幹擾,包括影響國際貿易的額外監管行動(如關稅)和其他宏觀經濟風險和不確定性的影響。

  • In closing, we had a strong fourth quarter and exceeded expectations for the year on our key priorities to grow profitability, expand gross margin, and generate free cash flow, and continue to strengthen our balance sheet. We look forward to growing the top and bottom line in 2025 as we execute our strategy.

    最後,我們在第四季度表現強勁,超出了全年預期,我們的主要任務是提高盈利能力、擴大毛利率、產生自由現金流,並繼續加強我們的資產負債表。我們期待在實施我們的策略的同時,在 2025 年實現營收和淨利潤的成長。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to the operator, and we'd be happy to take your questions.

    接下來,我將把電話交給接線員,我們很樂意回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作員指令)

  • Stephen Laszczyk, Goldman Sachs.

    高盛的史蒂芬‧拉什奇克 (Stephen Laszczyk)。

  • Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst

    Stephen Laszczyk - Analyst

  • Hi, good, thank you for taking the questions. Two, if I could. Maybe first for Ynon. Could you talk a little bit more about what's giving you confidence in achieving that top line growth outlook for 2025 of 2% to 3%. You mentioned some of the opportunities, I think ahead in Vehicles, Games and Action Figures. Could you maybe expand on that a little bit? And then I'd be curious what you're hearing from your retail partners on the demand side as we head into 2025, especially against a year and a holiday where it seems like inventory exited at somewhat elevated levels. Any thoughts there would be much appreciated.

    嗨,很好,感謝您回答這些問題。如果可以的話,有兩個。對 Ynon 來說也許是第一個。您能否進一步談談是什麼讓您有信心實現 2025 年 2% 至 3% 的營收成長預期?您提到了一些機會,我認為在車輛、遊戲和動作人物方面有前景。能稍微詳細說明一下嗎?然後我很好奇,當我們進入 2025 年時,您從零售合作夥伴那裡聽到了什麼關於需求方面的消息,特別是在這一年和一個假期中,庫存似乎處於較高的水平。任何想法都將不勝感激。

  • And then a quick one for Anthony, hopefully. Is there any more detail you can give us around the assumptions you're factoring into your guidance as it relates to tariffs and some of the factors and contingencies you're planning to put in place if they stay in place for the duration of the year? Particularly around any headwinds to unit sales or margins that you're factoring in?

    然後希望安東尼能快速進球。您能否向我們提供更多細節,說明您在製定與關稅相關的指導意見時所考慮的假設,以及如果這些關稅在今年內保持不變,您計劃實施的一些因素和應急措施?特別是您考慮到的單位銷售額或利潤率方面有哪些阻力?

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Hi, Stephen. We expect a few drivers, both in toys and entertainment. On the toy side, we are seeing continued -- expect continued momentum in Vehicles and Games driven by Hot Wheels, which we believe will have another record year, and UNO, which just had its highest year ever. Both brands are doing really well with a lot of innovation, and we expect them to continue to drive business.

    你好,史蒂芬。我們預計在玩具和娛樂領域會有一些驅動因素。在玩具方面,我們預計汽車和遊戲將繼續保持成長勢頭,其中,風火輪將再創紀錄,而 UNO 則剛剛創下了歷史新高。這兩個品牌都表現出色,擁有大量創新,我們期待它們繼續推動業務發展。

  • In Dolls, we're launching product tied to the theatrical releases of Snow White with Disney and the second Wicked movie, and we also expect improving trends in Barbie. By then, it will be two years post the movie. And Infant, Toddler and Preschool, we are launching -- rolling out the globally Fisher-Price Wood, which is having very good momentum. And in Action Figures, we're going to bring out two big movies, Jurassic World and Minecraft, and continue to expand globally WWE, which is itself benefiting from the Netflix show or deal that they're rolling out around the world.

    在玩偶方面,我們將推出與迪士尼電影《白雪公主》和第二部《魔法壞女巫》相關的產品,同時我們也期待芭比娃娃的趨勢有所改善。到那時,距離電影上映已經過了兩年。在嬰兒、幼兒和學齡前兒童領域,我們正在全球推出費雪木玩具,這款產品的發展勢頭非常好。在「動作人物」方面,我們將推出兩部大型電影《侏羅紀世界》和《我的世界》,並繼續在全球擴張 WWE,而 WWE 本身也受益於 Netflix 在全球推出的節目或交易。

  • We also have on the entertainment side, some good drivers as well with more shows on Netflix, Hot Wheels Let's Race Season 3, Barbie's animated special, and new seasons of Thomas & Friends and Polly Pocket. Also, Barney is having its own exposure on MAX, and we continue to drive the business overall. So good momentum, strong execution and feeling very good about the prospects for the year.

    在娛樂方面,我們也提供一些優秀的車手,以及 Netflix 上的更多節目、《風火輪讓我們比賽》第 3 季、芭比娃娃動畫特輯,以及《托馬斯和朋友》和《波莉口袋》的新季。此外,巴尼在 MAX 上也有自己的曝光度,我們將繼續推動整體業務。勢頭良好,執行力強勁,對今年的前景感到非常樂觀。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I could comment on Q1, and I'll come back to tariffs, Stephen. With respect to Q1 and how we're starting the year, POS is off to a good start, but there are a couple of factors that need to be considered with respect to gross billings in the quarter. The first is there is a later Easter holiday in 2025 and as a result, we would expect some modest shift of timing of shipments between Q1 and Q2, and also, as we stated, we ended 2024 with retail inventories slightly elevated. This inventory is high quality and we'll work through it in the first quarter. And importantly, we're guiding to top and bottom line growth for 2025.

    我可以對第一季發表評論,然後我會回到關稅問題,史蒂芬。就第一季以及我們如何開始新的一年而言,POS 開局良好,但在本季度的總帳單方面,有幾個因素需要考慮。首先,2025 年的復活節假期較晚,因此,我們預計第一季和第二季之間的出貨時間會發生適度變化,正如我們所說,到 2024 年底,零售庫存將略有增加。這個庫存品質很高,我們將在第一季處理完。重要的是,我們正在引導2025年的營收和利潤成長。

  • Moving to the topic of tariffs. Taking a step back for a moment, over the past several years, we have been continuously optimizing and diversifying our manufacturing footprint. Today, we source products from 7 different countries and in 2025, we expect China will represent less than 40% of global production for our toys and that's compared to an industry average of about 80%. And with the US representing about half of our global toy sales, our tariff exposure in the US related to China should be about 20% of global production. And with respect to Mexico and Canada, we currently source less than 10% of our toys from Mexico and have no sourcing from Canada.

    轉到關稅話題。回顧過去,在過去幾年裡,我們一直在不斷優化和多樣化我們的製造足跡。今天,我們從 7 個不同的國家採購產品,我們預計到 2025 年,中國將占我們玩俱全球產量的不到 40%,而產業平均約為 80%。由於美國占我們全球玩具銷售額的一半左右,我們在美國與中國相關的關稅風險應佔全球產量的 20% 左右。就墨西哥和加拿大而言,我們目前從墨西哥採購的玩具不到10%,沒有從加拿大採購。

  • And by 2027, no single country is expected to represent more than about 25% of total global production or about half of that in terms of US sales. Now with respect to the tariffs, our teams have been fully engaged in analyzing and planning for a range of scenarios and in terms of the financial impact on Mattel, our 2025 guidance includes the anticipated impact of the new tariffs based on what we know today and mitigating actions we plan to take, including those leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing.

    到 2027 年,預計沒有一個國家的產量能占到全球總產量的 25% 以上,或占到美國總銷售額的一半以上。關於關稅,我們的團隊已經全力投入分析和規劃各種情景,就對美泰的財務影響而言,我們的 2025 年指引包括根據我們目前所知對新關稅的預期影響以及我們計劃採取的緩解措施,包括利用我們供應鏈的優勢和潛在的定價措施。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Alex Perry, Bank of America.

    美國銀行的亞歷克斯·佩里。

  • Alexander Perry - Analyst

    Alexander Perry - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my questions here and congrats on a strong quarter. And Anthony, congrats on your retirement as well. I guess just first, I sort of wanted to follow-up on that last line of questioning. In terms of the top line, how is sell-in positive for 2025 if you're tracking at low single-digit declines in POS as the exit run rate in 4Q and then you said retail inventory slightly elevated. Is the expectation that POS turns positive and I guess what is driving optimism there? Is that all based on the visibility you have on the improved content slate. And then just back to the first quarter, Anthony, how much below that sort of full year 2% to 3% growth should we be thinking about for the first quarter?

    你好,感謝您回答我的問題,並祝賀您本季業績表現強勁。安東尼,也恭喜你退休。我想首先,我想跟進最後一行問題。就營業收入而言,如果您追蹤到 POS 的低個位數下降作為第四季度的退出運行率,然後您說零售庫存略有增加,那麼 2025 年的銷售情況如何?POS 的預期是否轉為正值? 我猜是什麼推動了那裡的樂觀情緒?這都是基於您對改進的內容板的可見性嗎?然後回到第一季度,安東尼,我們應該考慮第一季的成長率比全年 2% 到 3% 的成長率低多少?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So Ynon went through some of the key drivers, right, in terms of our expectation around 2% to 3% net sales growth in constant currency, currency, so I don't need to repeat those. We believe there's enough drivers. We believe we are well positioned to outpace the industry and gain market share in 2025, right? We have a lot of innovation coming. We have a lot of activations coming. Again, we're very confident we can achieve that guidance.

    是的。所以 Ynon 介紹了一些關鍵驅動因素,就我們預期的 2% 到 3% 左右的淨銷售額成長(以固定匯率計算)而言,所以我不需要重複這些。我們相信有足夠的司機。我們相信,我們有能力在 2025 年超越行業並獲得市場份額,對嗎?我們即將迎來大量創新。我們即將迎來大量活化活動。我們再次強調,我們非常有信心能夠實現這一目標。

  • In terms of the flow of the first quarter, right, - let me talk about retail inventory levels. We ended the year with retail inventories comparable to the prior year. So a little bit of headwind as we go into Q1, and that's why we mentioned that in terms of the first quarter outlook and also the timing of the Easter holiday. But beyond that, we expect to achieve growth balance of the year and achieve our guidance.

    就第一季的流量而言,對,讓我來談談零售庫存水準。我們今年底的零售庫存與前一年相當。因此,進入第一季時我們會遇到一些阻力,這就是我們在第一季展望以及復活節假期時間中提到這一點的原因。但除此之外,我們預計將實現今年的成長平衡並達到我們的預期。

  • Alexander Perry - Analyst

    Alexander Perry - Analyst

  • Makes sense. And then just back to the tariff mitigation strategy. You guided '25 ahead of expectations inclusive of the impact of tariffs. Any help on what you're actually doing to mitigate? Are there certain parts of the portfolio that you think you have the elasticity to raise price on? Are you cost sharing with suppliers? And then maybe just any like EPS or quantification of what's embedded in the guide in terms of a bottom line hit from the tariffs, especially as it relates to Mexico and Canada since those are now delayed?

    有道理。然後回到關稅減免戰略。您預測 25 年業績將超出預期,其中包括關稅的影響。您實際上正在採取什麼措施來緩解這種情況,有什麼幫助嗎?您認為投資組合中的某些部分是否具有漲價的彈性?您是否與供應商分攤成本?然後也許只是任何像每股收益或量化指南中所包含的內容,以關稅對底線的影響而言,特別是與墨西哥和加拿大有關的,因為這些現在已經被推遲了?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. I mean I understand the question. But without getting into specifics on our end because there is many puts and takes to this. As we said, our guidance does include a range of assumptions, not just around tariffs, but on other items like cost inflation and mix and production and many assumptions, right? And certainly, against the tariffs, we have a range of mitigating actions. We don't want to necessarily disclose our playbook, but they are in response to the tariffs, they do leverage the strength of our global supply chain and they also include potential price increases. And look, we do work closely with our retail partners to achieve the right balance and always keep consumers in mind when we consider pricing actions.

    是的。我的意思是我明白這個問題。但我們不會深入討論具體細節,因為這裡面涉及很多因素。正如我們所說,我們的指引確實包括一系列假設,不僅僅是圍繞關稅,還包括其他項目,如成本通膨和組合、生產和許多假設,對嗎?當然,針對關稅,我們採取了一系列緩解措施。我們不一定想透露我們的策略,但它們是對關稅的回應,它們確實利用了我們全球供應鏈的優勢,並且還包括潛在的價格上漲。而且,我們確實與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作,以達到適當的平衡,並在考慮定價行動時始終將消費者放在心上。

  • Alexander Perry - Analyst

    Alexander Perry - Analyst

  • Perfect. All very helpful -- sorry, go ahead.

    完美的。都很有幫助 - 抱歉,請繼續。

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Just to add the point on supply chain that Anthony touched on, which is, this has been a strategy that we've implemented since 2018. It was a proactive strategy to diversify and build a geographically balanced supply chain infrastructure that will allow us to be better positioned for different eventualities. It wasn't about any one particular country, and it wasn't even necessarily about tariffs. It was just about making sure you have a resilient, flexible well-diversified supply chain system.

    我只是想補充安東尼提到的供應鏈問題,這是我們自 2018 年以來就一直在實施的策略。這是一項積極主動的策略,旨在實現多元化並建立地理平衡的供應鏈基礎設施,使我們能夠更好地應對不同情況。這與任何特定國家無關,甚至不一定與關稅有關。這只是為了確保你擁有一個有彈性、靈活且多樣化的供應鏈系統。

  • And between our own factories and third-party factories operating out of 7 different countries, we have a lot of flexibility in the model -- and this would be our first port of call, how do we leverage our capabilities there. And of course, we have other mitigating actions we can take but feel good about the plan, factoring what's been announced and other potential changes as well.

    在我們自己的工廠和在 7 個不同國家運營的第三方工廠之間,我們在模式上具有很大的靈活性——這將是我們的第一站,我們如何在那裡利用我們的能力。當然,我們還可以採取其他緩解措施,但考慮到已經宣布的內容和其他潛在變化,我們對該計劃感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Megan Clapp, Morgan Stanley.

    摩根士丹利的梅根·克拉普 (Megan Clapp)。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • Thanks so much, congrats to Anthony as well. We will certainly miss you. I'm going to try and ask this question again, maybe just a bit more pointed. On the first quarter, can you just help us understand how much sales should be down. There's a lot of moving parts. If I just simply do math on, POS was down low single digits in the fourth quarter, your shipments were up 2%, that's a 5-point gap. If you just do the math on sales, my math says it could be a 10-point plus headwind in the first quarter. Is that too big? Maybe if you could just, again, just help us understand a little bit more what 1Q should be down and what's the impact on margins as well?

    非常感謝,也祝賀安東尼。我們一定會想念您的。我將嘗試再次提出這個問題,也許會更加尖銳一些。關於第一季度,您能否幫助我們了解銷售額應該下降多少?有很多活動部件。如果我簡單算一下,第四季 POS 下降了個位數,而你們的出貨量成長了 2%,這是一個 5 個百分點的差距。如果你只計算一下銷售額,我的計算表明,第一季的銷售額可能會減少 10 個百分點以上。是不是太大了?也許您能再次幫助我們更多地了解第一季應該下降多少以及對利潤率有何影響?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Let me take that in two parts, Megan. The first is your comments around the Q4 gross billings relative to POS somehow being a headwind into 2025, and that's not the case. And let me talk a little bit about the delta between gross billings and POS in the fourth quarter, and I got to go back a little bit and give you a little bit of context. Retail inventory levels typically follow a seasonal pattern. The increase in the third quarter ahead of the holiday season and decline in the fourth quarter, right as the products sell-through, and the change in that build and decline year-over-year impacts our gross billings. And what happened is, in the fourth quarter of the prior year we saw a more significant decline in the fourth quarter compared to this year. And that's what driving this delta between gross billings and POS. So it's more to do with last year as opposed to this year and it's not a carryover impact into 2025.

    是的。梅根,讓我把這個問題分成兩部分來討論。首先,您說第四季總營業收入相對於 POS 來說會在某種程度上阻礙 2025 年的進程,但事實並非如此。讓我稍微談談第四季的總營業額和 POS 之間的差異,然後我要稍微回顧一下並提供一些背景資訊。零售庫存水準通常遵循季節性模式。在假期來臨之前,第三季度的銷售額有所增長,而在產品銷售旺季之際,第四季度的銷售額卻有所下降,這種同比增減變化對我們的總營業額產生了影響。實際情況是,與去年第四季相比,我們看到第四季的下滑更為明顯。這就是導致總帳單和 POS 之間差異的原因。因此,這與去年有關,而不是與今年有關,並且不會對 2025 年產生延續影響。

  • That said, our inventory levels are slightly elevated but we have, I would call it, a very modest impact to correct that situation in Q1, right, so we're planning a headwind. The other potential headwind is a little bit of timing shift to a later holiday season. So we're not guiding to Q1 to say, look, we're going to be below our full year run rate because of those two factors.

    也就是說,我們的庫存水準略有上升,但我認為,這對我們在第一季糾正這種情況的影響非常小,所以我們正在計劃應對逆風。另一個潛在的不利因素是假期時間稍微推遲了一些。因此,我們不會預測第一季的業績會因這兩個因素而低於全年的營運率。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • You typically talk first half, second half. I know it can be hard to guide by quarter. Can you -- is there any color you can give around first half, second half expectations for time.

    你通常會談論前半部分,後半部分。我知道按季度來製定指導可能會比較困難。您能否-可以透露一下對上半年和下半年的期望嗎?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • We've been in that more normal 35%-65% range, and there's no expectation that will change in 2025.

    我們現在一直處於較為正常的 35%-65% 範圍內,預計 2025 年也不會改變。

  • Megan Clapp - Analyst

    Megan Clapp - Analyst

  • Okay. And then maybe just as a follow-up. You talked about increased investments in digital. Is that OpEx or CapEx? I didn't catch if you gave us CapEx guidance, so if you have, could give us CapEx guidance, that would be great as well.

    好的。然後可能只是作為後續行動。您談到了增加對數位領域的投資。這是 OpEx 還是 CapEx?我不清楚您是否給了我們資本支出指導,如果有的話,可以給我們資本支出指導,那就太好了。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. What we're talking about on the self-publishing side, so these are initiatives we've talked about before to capture more of the upside right, and drive long-term growth, right, and again, these are self-publishing efforts. They will be recorded in the SG&A line, not CapEx. And I can tell you, CapEx for 2025 would be comparable to 2024 levels.

    當然。我們正在談論自助出版方面,所以這些都是我們之前談論過的舉措,目的是獲得更多的上升空間,推動長期增長,對吧,再說一次,這些都是自助出版的努力。它們將被記錄在銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 行中,而不是資本支出 (CapEx) 中。我可以告訴你,2025 年的資本支出將與 2024 年的水準相當。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Horvers, JPMorgan.

    摩根大通的克里斯霍弗斯 (Chris Horvers)。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Thanks and good evening and congratulations to Anthony. So I wanted to follow up on the gross margin. I understand there are a lot of puts and takes especially with the tariffs. But can you give broad strokes views on what the drivers of gross margin would be? Would seem like you still have -- the efficiencies for growth have come in better than expected. It seems like you should still have a good benefit there coming in into 2025, and you do plan to grow sales, so maybe there's some fixed cost absorption. Is essentially like the offset the tariffs, and that's how you get down to a flat gross margin? So just overall, talk about the drivers within gross margin.

    謝謝,晚上好,恭喜安東尼。所以我想跟踪一下毛利率。我知道其中存在著許多爭議,特別是在關稅問題上。但您能否大致談談毛利率的驅動因素是什麼?看起來你仍然有——成長效率比預期的要好。看起來到 2025 年你仍然應該能獲得良好的收益,而且你確實計劃增加銷售額,所以也許會有一些固定成本的吸收。這本質上就像是抵銷關稅,然後毛利率就穩定下來了嗎?整體來說,談談毛利率內的驅動因素。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Sure. Happy to do that. The first comment I'll make is the performance of 2024, up 340 basis points to 50.9%, so we're working off a higher-than-expected base. But when you think about 2025, I would bucket it in terms of some headwinds and some tailwinds. Headwinds. The first one would be cost inflation, right, so in the fourth quarter and after a number of quarters of deflation, we actually saw some inflation, and we expect that to continue into 2025. That's a combination of labor cost inflation and some inflation on logistics. The other headwind would be the tariffs themselves. Then in terms of tailwinds, there's really three. The mitigating actions we're going to take against those tariffs, plus a little bit of scale benefit or fixed cost absorption. And the third would be cost savings from our Optimizing for Profitable Growth program. We -- we're off to a great start on that program. This is the one we announced at the beginning of 2024. We achieved $83 million of savings in 2024, and are guiding to an additional $60 million of savings in 2025 and the majority of those will benefit cost of goods sold. But when you put all those factors together, that supports the guidance of comparable performance on gross margin year-over-year.

    當然。很高興這麼做。我要發表的第一則評論是 2024 年的表現,上漲 340 個基點至 50.9%,因此我們的基礎高於預期。但當你想到 2025 年時,我會將其分為一些逆風和一些順風。逆風。第一個是成本通膨,對吧,所以在第四季度以及經歷了幾個季度的通貨緊縮之後,我們實際上看到了一些通膨,我們預計這種情況將持續到 2025 年。這是勞動成本通膨和物流成本通膨的結合。另一個阻力就是關稅本身。那麼就順風而言,其實有三個。我們將針對這些關稅採取緩解措施,再加上一點規模效益或固定成本吸收。第三個是透過我們的「優化獲利成長」計畫來節省成本。我們 — — 我們在這個專案上已經有了很好的開始。這是我們在 2024 年初宣布的。我們在 2024 年實現了 8,300 萬美元的節省,並預計在 2025 年將額外節省 6,000 萬美元,其中大部分將用於降低銷售成本。但當你把所有這些因素放在一起時,這就支持了對毛利率同比表現的指導。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Got it. And then just as we think about the tariffs impact and the ability to execute pricing I guess, presumably, there will be a lag to that. So is it sort of embedded in there sort of more headwinds earlier and then recovery later in terms of how the gross margin sort of shape will look?

    知道了。然後,當我們考慮關稅的影響和執行定價的能力時,我猜,大概會有一個延遲。那麼,從毛利率的形狀來看,這是否會先出現更多不利的因素,然後再出現復甦?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, there's a little bit of delay to both actions. We have to run inventory through the balance sheet, there's a lag there. So without getting into too much detail, we're confident that we can execute these actions. And when you consider our gross margin holistically, we plan to hold our margin year-over-year.

    是的,這兩個操作都有點延遲。我們必須透過資產負債表來核算庫存,這其中存在滯後。因此,無需過多細節,我們有信心執行這些行動。如果全面考慮我們的毛利率,我們計劃保持毛利率逐年增加。

  • Christopher Horvers - Analyst

    Christopher Horvers - Analyst

  • Got it. And then one quick 1Q sales follow-up, which is, as you think about the timing of Snow White and Minecraft, is that potentially substantial enough to offset the later Easter?

    知道了。然後是第一季的快速銷售跟進,也就是說,當你考慮白雪公主和我的世界的時間時,這是否足以抵消稍後的復活節的影響?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • No, I wouldn't say so.

    不,我不會這麼說。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Arpine Kocharyan, UBS.

    瑞銀的 Arpine Kocharyan。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Hi, thank you. Strong set of results. Congratulations. To just maybe ask one more question somewhat related to tariffs. Do you expect major shifts in FOB at all given tariffs. Typically, that could be as much as 40%, 50%, of annual shipments, could there be any sort of surprises there in terms of what retailers could do given the changing landscape of tariffs? Any color there would be great. And then I have a quick follow-up.

    你好,謝謝。一系列強而有力的成果。恭喜。也許我再問一個與關稅有關的問題。您是否預計,在所有給定的關稅條件下,離岸價會發生重大變化?通常,這個數字可能高達年出貨量的 40% 到 50%,考慮到關稅情勢的變化,零售商可以採取什麼措施,這是否會帶來任何意外?任何顏色都很棒。然後我有一個快速的後續問題。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. Arpine, I would say it's really too early to say. We obviously work very closely with our retail partners, and we'll figure this thing out.

    是的。Arpine,我想說現在說還太早。我們顯然與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作,我們將解決這個問題。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Okay. I think it was the first time we saw Hot Wheels surpass Barbie in volume in terms of annual results, which speaks to the incredible diversification. Hot Wheels growth has just been impressive and continues to defy odds, right. Could you speak to those drivers for 2025, including entertainment plans and timing? Do you have any updates on the movie on Hot Wheels?

    好的。我認為這是我們第一次看到風火輪在年度業績方面的銷量超過芭比娃娃,這反映了其令人難以置信的多樣化。Hot Wheels 的成長令人印象深刻,並且繼續打破常規,對吧。您能談談 2025 年的驅動因素嗎,包括娛樂計劃和時間安排?你對風火輪電影有什麼最新消息嗎?

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we -- you're talking about Hot Wheels, specifically. Yes, it has been just an incredible execution of a comprehensive strategy, a very broad range of products, different lines, and different executions, and continuing all along to build a strong relationship, emotional connections with fans all over the world, and broadening the audience even more. Achieving seventh consecutive record year is a huge achievement, and we also are saying now that we are targeting another record year.

    嗯,我們——具體來說,你談論的是風火輪。是的,這是一個令人難以置信的綜合策略執行,非常廣泛的產品範圍、不同的生產線和不同的執行,並一直在與世界各地的粉絲建立牢固的關係、情感聯繫,並進一步擴大受眾群體。連續第七年創下紀錄是個巨大的成就,我們現在也表示,我們的目標是再創紀錄一年。

  • You can see also how we continue to innovate and add new partnerships. F1 and Ferrari are recent announcements, both will launch this year with a whole range of Die-cast Cars. There's something very telling about the range of products that we have with Hot Wheels where, on one hand, we sell a product at $1.25. This is Hot Wheel's basic car, which is the number 1 selling toy in the industry, all the way to a $700 Daniel Arsham collector set as well. So you have a full range, incredible product offering, across different price points.

    您還可以看到我們如何不斷創新並增加新的合作關係。F1 和法拉利是最近宣布的兩款車型,都將於今年推出一系列壓鑄車。我們的 Hot Wheels 系列產品有一個很能說明問題的地方:一方面,我們的產品售價為 1.25 美元。這是 Hot Wheel 的基本款車,也是業界銷售第一的玩具,也是價值 700 美元的 Daniel Arsham 收藏版套裝。因此,您擁有涵蓋不同價位的全系列、令人難以置信的產品。

  • We also continue to evolve outside of the toy aisle. There's the TV show, the Hot Wheels Let's Race that is doing well and expanding distribution. We’re broadening the Hot Wheels Legends Tour even more. It just wrapped its 7th consecutive year with the highest attendance ever, 125% up year-on-year, and incredible reach in terms of media impressions. So lots to be excited about. And this is before we even talk about the movie, which is also developing well. Produced by JJ Abrams at Warner Brothers. I can't reveal too much but it's getting better and better in terms of the package we're putting together. And when this comes out, there will be a whole new level of acceleration and excitement that we expect will happen.

    我們也在玩具領域之外不斷進步。電視節目《風火輪賽車》 (Hot Wheels Let's Race) 表現不俗,並且不斷擴大發行範圍。我們正在進一步拓展風火輪傳奇之旅。它剛結束連續第七年的舉辦,創下了有史以來最高的出席人數,比去年增長了 125%,並且在媒體曝光率方面具有令人難以置信的影響力。有很多值得興奮的事情。這是我們尚未談論的電影,其發展也十分順利。由華納兄弟的 JJ Abrams 製作。我不能透露太多,但就我們制定的方案而言,情況正在越來越好。當這一消息公佈後,我們預計將會出現一個全新水平的加速和興奮。

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Great. Great. And then I have one more quick -- I'm sorry for a third question. Outside of ASP movements year-over-year, could you share what is the extent of pricing actually you're taking for 2025, if any?

    偉大的。偉大的。然後我還有一個問題──抱歉,我是第三個問題。除了平均售價的同比變化之外,您能否分享一下 2025 年的實際定價範圍(如果有的話)?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • I didn't hear the first part to your question, Arpine?

    我沒有聽清楚你問題的第一部分,阿爾皮納?

  • Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

    Arpine Kocharyan - Analyst

  • Yes. I don't know why. I -- I literally can't hear half of what you guys are saying and you probably can't hear me, but I was asking outside of ASP movements year-over-year in your product line, could you share what is the extent of pricing action you are thinking of for 2025? Outside of ASP? Yes.

    是的。我不知道為什麼。我——我真的聽不到你們說的話的一半,你們可能也聽不到我的話,但我在問,除了你們產品線逐年的平均售價變動之外,你能否分享一下你考慮的 2025 年定價行動的程度?在 ASP 之外?是的。

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, so we haven't given any specifics around pricing actions. That's something that's one of the potential actions related to the tariffs. And again, as we said, we're going to be working closely with our retail partners here to find the right balance on that front.

    是的,所以我們沒有提供有關定價行動的任何具體資訊。這是與關稅相關的潛在行動之一。正如我們所說,我們將與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作,找到在這方面的適當平衡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Eric Handler, ROTH Capital.

    漢德勒 (Eric Handler),羅仕證券 (ROTH Capital)

  • Eric Handler - Analyst

    Eric Handler - Analyst

  • Good afternoon, thank you for the question. Anthony, you gave good perspective on the puts and takes for gross margin. I wonder if you could do the same for operating expenses? And then also with regards to the guidance, are you -- are buybacks assumed as one of the drivers in the bottom line expectations?

    下午好,感謝您的提問。安東尼,你對於毛利率的利弊給了很好的見解。我想知道您是否可以對營運費用做同樣的事情?然後關於指導,您是否將回購視為底線預期的驅動因素之一?

  • Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

    Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes. So let me start with the buyback. We've been very active on the buyback front. We resumed repurchases in 2023, we did $200 million. We did $400 million in 2024. Now we're accelerating to a targeted level of $600 million in 2025. And we have built in the benefit of that in terms of the lower share count and a benefit to EPS. So that's been there. And with that $600 million, we would have repurchased close to 20% of our market cap and fully utilized the $1 billion authorization in just two years. In terms of the middle of the P&L, we're not giving specific guidance, but I don't think you'll see levels materially different from the current year.

    是的。那麼就讓我先談回購。我們在回購方面一直非常活躍。我們在 2023 年恢復回購,回購金額達 2 億美元。我們在 2024 年的營收為 4 億美元。現在,我們正在加速實現 2025 年 6 億美元的目標水準。而我們已經從較低的股份數量和每股盈餘方面獲益。事實就是如此。利用這 6 億美元,我們只需兩年時間就能回購近 20% 的市值,並充分利用 10 億美元的授權。就損益表的中間部分而言,我們沒有給出具體的指導,但我認為你不會看到與今年有實質差異的水平。

  • Eric Handler - Analyst

    Eric Handler - Analyst

  • Okay. And Ynon, you've talked a long time about wanting to build up entertainment. You said entertainment at scale can be very profitable. Can you give us some perspective, and you listed a whole bunch of things that impacts your entertainment line, but how big is this entertainment bucket right now? And where do you think that can go over the next several years?

    好的。Ynon,你很久以前就說過想要打造娛樂產業。您說過,大規模的娛樂活動可以帶來豐厚的利潤。您能否給我們一些看法,您列出了一系列影響您的娛樂線的事情,但是目前這個娛樂桶有多大?您認為未來幾年會如何發展?

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Eric. We talked about it before that we haven't provided a breakdown between toys and the entertainment strategy. But we have said -- and we still say and are very encouraged by the progress we are seeing, that entertainment at scale can have a meaningful impact on our financial profile. And there's one example I can talk about or something current that we mentioned before that is also, we're discussing here as well, is our investment in mobile games. This is a new initiative for us in terms of investing in self publishing, still within a capital-light construct. So it doesn't change our risk profile, but it does give us what we believe is an asymmetric potential return in an exciting, growing industry, where brands play a critical role. And our strategy is all around how do you leverage the strength of our brands to create additional value outside of what we used to do as a company primarily just in the toy business.

    謝謝,埃里克。我們之前討論過,我們沒有提供玩具和娛樂策略之間的細分。但我們曾經說過——而且我們仍在說,並且對所看到的進展感到非常鼓舞,大規模的娛樂活動可以對我們的財務狀況產生有意義的影響。我可以講一個例子,或者我們之前提到過的一個當前的事情,我們也在這裡討論,那就是我們對手機遊戲的投資。對我們來說,這是在投資自助出版方面的一項新舉措,並且仍然在輕資本的框架內。因此,它不會改變我們的風險狀況,但確實為我們帶來了我們認為在一個令人興奮且不斷發展的行業中的不對稱潛在回報,而品牌在這個行業中發揮著至關重要的作用。我們的策略是圍繞著如何利用我們品牌的優勢來創造額外的價值,而不僅僅是我們公司過去主要從事的玩具業務。

  • Where we stand out is with the strength and quality of our portfolio. These are brands that have heritage value, very diverse mix of franchises across genres and demographics that is very current, very cultural, and really move the needle. So we are now executing this strategy at scale. The question used to be whether brands resonate outside of toys, then the question was, can we actually do that because Mattel was never successful fully in executing an entertainment strategy. Now that we have very clear proof points in a few areas not just the movie, but also in digital, in consumer products and parks and other areas. The question now is, can you do that at scale. And this is exactly where we are in terms of our journey -- and you will see more of that coming through in the coming years.

    我們的優勢在於我們產品組合的實力和品質。這些品牌擁有傳承價值,擁有跨類型、跨人群的多元特許經營組合,非常時尚、文化氣息濃厚,能夠真正推動產業發展。因此我們現在正在大規模執行這項策略。先前的問題是品牌是否能在玩具之外產生共鳴,後來的問題是,我們真的能做到這一點嗎,因為美泰在執行娛樂策略方面從未完全成功。現在我們不僅在一些領域,而且在電影領域,在數位領域、消費產品領域、公園領域和其他領域都有非常明確的證據點。現在的問題是,你能否大規模地做到這一點。這正是我們所處的旅程——未來幾年,你會看到更多這樣的旅程。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Fred Wightman, Wolfe Research.

    懷特曼(Fred Wightman),沃爾夫研究公司。

  • Frederick Wightman - Analyst

    Frederick Wightman - Analyst

  • Hey guys thanks for the question. I just wanted to ask on the industry outlook. You've been pretty emphatic and pretty consistent that you expect that to grow in '25. But if you look at the language in the release and the slides today, you're saying comparable to slightly up. So I'm wondering what maybe is giving you a little bit more caution versus your prior outlook?

    嘿夥計們,謝謝你的提問。我只是想問一下行業前景。您一直非常強調並且一致地表示您預計這個數字在 25 年將會成長。但如果你看一下今天發布的新聞稿和幻燈片中的語言,你會發現,這一數字相當於略有上升。所以我想知道,與之前的觀點相比,什麼可能會讓您更加謹慎?

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, we've been very consistent about our positive outlook with respect to the industry. And entering even 2024, as you'll recall, the expectation was for a high, up to a high single-digit decline, when you heard what other people said. And we've always been more positive and we liked to see that the industry did stabilize and only declined slightly in 2024, less than 1%. And so, this is a good place relative to what the expectations were out there. And we continue to see the industry performing better than people expect. We continue to believe that the toy industry has strong fundamentals and that it will return to growth and will continue to grow over the long term.

    嗯,我們對這個行業的看法一直非常正面。您會記得,甚至進入 2024 年,當您聽到其他人說的話時,預計會出現高達個位數的下降。我們一直都比較積極,我們很高興看到行業確實趨於穩定,並且在 2024 年僅略有下降,不到 1%。因此,相對於人們的期望,這是一個好地方。我們繼續看到該行業的表現好於人們的預期。我們仍然相信,玩具產業基本面強勁,將恢復成長並將長期持續成長。

  • We're seeing toys continue to play an important part of consumers' lives. We're seeing retailers prioritizing toys as a strategic lever. We know that toy shoppers drive traffic, they spend more time in stores and typically have a bigger basket. Looking back, you see that toys over time, toy POS has been growing and outpacing declines in birth rates. The industry growth has been driven by both pricing and units, which is a healthy place to be.

    我們看到玩具繼續在消費者生活中扮演著重要的角色。我們看到零售商將玩具作為策略槓桿。我們知道玩具購物者會帶來客流,他們在商店裡花費的時間更多,而且購物籃通常也更大。回顧過去,你會發現隨著時間的推移,玩具 POS 一直在增長,並且速度超過了出生率的下降。行業成長是由定價和單位共同推動的,這是一個健康的狀況。

  • And adult collectors, this is proving to be a sustainable trend. So with that, we do expect the industry to be comparable to slightly up in the year. We're seeing theatrical movies coming back to their normal cadence with the whole slate of movies. We have some exciting partnerships, we mentioned Snow White and Minecraft, Jurassic World, the second Wicked movie, but there are other movies that are coming out, all of which gives the industry buoyancy. This is not just about toy products directly related to the movies, but it's a general buoyancy in the industry.

    對於成年收藏家來說,這已被證明是一種可持續的趨勢。因此,我們確實預計今年的行業表現將略有上升。我們看到院線電影的上映節奏正在全面恢復正常。我們有一些令人興奮的合作關係,我們提到了《白雪公主》和《我的世界》、《侏羅紀世界》、《第二部《魔法壞女巫》電影,但還有其他電影即將上映,所有這些都為這個行業帶來了活力。這不僅涉及與電影直接相關的玩具產品,而是整個產業的蓬勃發展。

  • And within all of that, we believe that we are very well positioned to increase our own market share and outperform the industry. And a combination of that gives you maybe a longer answer than you asked for, but I hope that I give you enough color in terms of our belief in the industry and where we think we can end up.

    基於以上所有因素,我們相信,我們完全有能力提高自己的市場份額並超越行業。綜合以上這些,你可能會得到一個比你要求的更長的答案,但我希望我能給你足夠的信息,說明我們對這個行業的信心,以及我們認為我們最終能達到的目標。

  • Frederick Wightman - Analyst

    Frederick Wightman - Analyst

  • No, that's super helpful. And then just one more quick one. Could you give us a little bit of color on how you're thinking about Mattel Brick shop, maybe what the opportunity for that could be, how quickly that could ramp and maybe what that means for some of the other construction brands that you guys have?

    不,這非常有幫助。然後還有一個快速的。您能否向我們稍微介紹一下您對美泰積木店的看法,它的機會是什麼,發展速度有多快,以及這對你們擁有的其他一些建築品牌意味著什麼?

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, this is another exciting opportunity for Mattel where we leverage our capabilities between design, very strong supply chain, and a global commercial platform. This, we haven't announced the exact product that we are launching, we said we will do that in May. But as always, you can expect the best, and an exciting product execution from Mattel. What is interesting to note, and I should highlight that, is that we are leaning on the Mattel brand and leveraging the trust and relationships that fans have with Mattel.

    是的,這對美泰來說是另一個令人興奮的機會,我們可以利用我們的設計、強大的供應鏈和全球商業平台的能力。這個,我們還沒有宣布我們將要推出的具體產品,我們說過我們會在五月推出。但與往常一樣,您可以期待美泰推出最好的、令人興奮的產品。值得注意的是,我應該強調的是,我們依靠美泰品牌並利用粉絲對美泰兒的信任和關係。

  • This will not be under the Mega brand, but under the Mattel umbrella brand. And the same strong people that we have in the company will drive that, and we are excited by this opportunity to have another growth driver for us.

    這不會歸屬於 Mega 品牌,而是歸屬於 Mattel 主品牌。我們公司中同樣強大的人才將推動這一進程,我們很高興有機會為我們帶來另一個成長動力。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Linda Bolton-Weiser, D.A. Davidson.

    Linda Bolton-Weiser,地方檢察官戴維森。

  • Linda Bolton-Weiser - Analyst

    Linda Bolton-Weiser - Analyst

  • Hello. So I was curious about the mitigating actions that you're taking to offset the tariffs, and you're alluding to your supply chain strategies and your competencies there. I'm wondering if in some weird kind of way the tariffs could be like a blessing in disguise, because if you have competitors who can't leverage their supply chain and don't have the advantages that you have, that maybe you can be able to kind of be more competitive against your competitors? And in some ways, tariffs could help your positioning in the industry. I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

    你好。所以我很好奇你們為抵銷關稅而採取的緩解措施,你提到了你們的供應鏈策略和你們在那裡的能力。我想知道,從某種奇怪的角度來說,關稅是否可能是因禍得福,因為如果你的競爭對手無法利用他們的供應鏈,也不具備你所擁有的優勢,那麼你也許能夠比你的競爭對手更具競爭力?從某種程度上來說,關稅可以幫助您在行業中定位。我對你對此的想法很感興趣。

  • Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Ynon Kreiz - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Thank you, Linda, for the question. Yes, we do believe that supply chain is a competitive advantage for us. We worked very hard to turn it into a competitive advantage. It used to be, you can call it a handicap at some point in the past, but we now see this as a very strong competitive advantage. And it's -- and what you've seen, is that in times where there is dislocation in the market and changing dynamics in different and challenging market conditions, we stand out.

    是的。謝謝琳達提出這個問題。是的,我們確實相信供應鏈對我們來說是一個競爭優勢。我們非常努力地將其轉化為競爭優勢。在過去的某個時候,你可以稱之為一種障礙,但現在我們認為這是一種非常強大的競爭優勢。而且正如您所看到的,當市場出現混亂、市場條件改變且充滿挑戰時,我們就能脫穎而出。

  • We are very good at managing complexities. This is what we do. During COVID, where supply chain was a real bottleneck for many people, not just in toys, I'm talking more broadly. Supply chain was one of our strongest competitive advantages, and we continue to leverage that across multiple ways. This is not, I should say, this is not just about cost. It's also about quality, it's about service levels, it's about how we work with retailers, it's about how do you place the right product at the right time, at the right amount on the right shelf. We work with 500,000 stores where we sell our product. This doesn't include online retail and e-commerce that comes on top of that. So we continue to improve and strengthen our supply chain. Supply chain was also a big driver for the improvements and efficiencies that we achieved this year that help us get to such high levels of gross margin and profitability. So, it is an advantage, and we work hard at continuing to improve what we do and serve fans and work in close collaboration with our retail partners to continue to grow and expand our business.

    我們非常擅長處理複雜問題。這就是我們所做的。在疫情期間,供應鏈對許多人來說都是一個真正的瓶頸,不僅僅是在玩具領域,我講的是更廣泛的領域。供應鏈是我們最強大的競爭優勢之一,我們會繼續透過多種方式利用它。我應該說,這不僅涉及成本問題。它也與品質、服務水準、我們如何與零售商合作有關,也與如何在正確的時間將正確的產品以正確的數量放置在正確的貨架上有關。我們與 50 萬家商店合作銷售我們的產品。這還不包括網路零售和電子商務。因此我們不斷改進和加強我們的供應鏈。供應鏈也是我們今年實現改善和提高效率的重要推動力,幫助我們達到如此高的毛利率和獲利能力。所以,這是一個優勢,我們努力繼續改進我們的工作,為粉絲提供服務,並與我們的零售合作夥伴密切合作,繼續發展和擴大我們的業務。

  • Okay. Thank you, and thank you everyone for your questions. This was another successful year for Mattel as we continue to execute our multiyear strategy. Looking to 2025, we are excited to celebrate Mattel's 80th anniversary and are well positioned to continue to grow profitability and capture the full value of our IP.

    好的。謝謝大家,也謝謝大家的提問。今年對美泰兒來說又是成功的一年,我們將繼續執行我們多年的策略。展望 2025 年,我們很高興慶祝美泰成立 80 週年,並有能力繼續提高獲利能力並充分發揮我們智慧財產權的價值。

  • Before we conclude today's call, on behalf of all of us at Mattel, I would like to express our sadness for those impacted by the devastating wildfires in our headquarter city. Mattel has been working extensively with non-profit partners to support children and families in need following this unprecedented crisis. Our hearts go out to all of those who have been affected, including our L.A. based team members and all of our partners and our support is ongoing. Thank you. Thank you, everyone. And now I will turn the call back over to the operator.

    在我們結束今天的電話會議之前,我謹代表美泰公司的全體員工,向我們總部所在城市遭受毀滅性山火影響的人們表示哀悼。在這場前所未有的危機之後,美泰兒一直與非營利合作夥伴密切合作,為有需要的兒童和家庭提供支持。我們向所有受到影響的人表示慰問,包括我們駐洛杉磯的團隊成員和所有合作夥伴,我們的支持將持續進行。謝謝。謝謝大家。現在我將把電話轉回給接線生。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you again for joining us. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    再次感謝您的加入我們。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。