Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, July 31, 2025. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 MAA 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議將於今天（2025 年 7 月 31 日）錄製。（操作員指示）

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments.

現在，我將把電話轉給 MAA 高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer 來發表開場評論。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team participating on the call this morning are Brad Hill, Tim Argo, Clay Holder and Rob DelPriore.

謝謝你，里賈娜，大家早安。我是 MAA 財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer。今天早上參加電話會議的管理團隊成員有 Brad Hill、Tim Argo、Clay Holder 和 Rob DelPriore。

Before we begin with prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections.We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our '34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.

在我們今天早上開始準備好的評論之前，我想指出，作為本次討論的一部分，公司管理層將做出前瞻性的陳述。實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。我們鼓勵您參考昨天的收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的‘34 法案文件，其中描述了可能影響未來結果的風險因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的收益報告和補充財務數據中可以找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的介紹以及非 GAAP 和可比較 GAAP 指標之間差異的對帳。

Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors Page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be able to answer questions.

我們的獲利報告及補充文件目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的「投資者專區」頁面上查閱。我們準備好的評論副本和本次電話會議的錄音也將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上發布。在發表一些簡短的準備好的評論後，管理團隊將能夠回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Brad.

現在我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. As detailed in our release, second quarter core FFO results were ahead of our expectations. With the sequential improvement in new renewal and blended lease-over-lease rates all exceeding the prior year's sequential improvement.

謝謝，安德魯，大家早安。正如我們在新聞稿中詳細說明的那樣，第二季度核心 FFO 結果超出了我們的預期。新續約率和混合租賃率的連續改善均超過了去年的連續改善。

While the economic uncertainty has caused the pace of recovery in pricing power to slow across the country, the recovery in our portfolio is underway. And as the economic uncertainty stabilizes and deliveries continue to decline, the recovery should accelerate.

儘管經濟不確定性導致全國定價能力的復甦步伐放緩，但我們的投資組合的復甦正在進行中。隨著經濟不確定性趨於穩定，交付量持續下降，復甦將會加速。

Demand remains resilient with absorption across our markets, reaching the highest level in over 25 years. Encouragingly, absorption has now outpaced new deliveries for four consecutive quarters, with the gap between the trailing 12-month absorption and new deliveries in our markets approaching the level lasting during COVID.

需求維持強勁，各市場吸收量達到 25 年來的最高水準。令人鼓舞的是，吸收量已連續四個季度超過新交付量，過去 12 個月的吸收量與市場新交付量之間的差距已接近 COVID 期間的水平。

The downward trend in new deliveries is helping market conditions to firm up with market-level occupancies, improving in many of our markets, and we are seeing pockets of decreasing concessions, a combination that should lead to improved pricing power.

新交付量的下降趨勢有助於市場狀況的穩定，市場水平的入住率在我們的許多市場都有所改善，而且我們看到優惠正在減少，這些因素結合起來應該會提高定價能力。

With a stable employment sector and strong wage growth, our residents are financially healthy, leading to continued good collections and improving rent-to-income ratios. Our diversified portfolio focus on high-growth markets and operating scale continue to position MAA best to capitalize on these favorable trends to a greater degree as the demand/supply balance moves more in our favor.

由於就業部門穩定、薪資成長強勁，我們的居民財務狀況良好，從而持續獲得良好的收入並提高租金收入比。我們的多元化投資組合專注於高成長市場和營運規模，隨著供需平衡對我們越來越有利，MAA 將繼續充分利用這些有利趨勢。

The resilience of our platform is evident. In the midst of still elevated supply, we have maintained stable occupancy, achieved higher renewal rates and increased our retention, the result of our team's focus on customer service and operational consistency.

我們的平台的彈性是顯而易見的。在供應量仍然較高的情況下，我們維持了穩定的入住率，實現了更高的續約率並提高了保留率，這是我們團隊注重客戶服務和營運一致性的結果。

On the external growth front, because of our access to capital, we continue to find select compelling development opportunities. We remain committed to the disciplined expansion of our development pipeline, and we are making progress towards that goal.

在外部成長方面，由於我們能夠獲得資本，我們繼續尋找精選的引人注目的發展機會。我們將繼續致力於有紀律地擴大我們的開發管道，並且我們正在朝著這一目標前進。

In the second quarter, we started construction on a 336 unit suburban project in Charleston, South Carolina, which is expected to deliver a stabilized NOI yield of 6.1%, bringing our active pipeline to 2,648 units at nearly $1 billion.

第二季度，我們開始在南卡羅來納州查爾斯頓建造一個擁有 336 個單元的郊區項目，預計該項目將實現 6.1% 的穩定 NOI 收益率，使我們的活躍項目數量達到 2,648 個單元，總價值接近 10 億美元。

We own or control 12 additional sites with approvals of nearly 3,300 more units. Amid record pressure from competitive lease-ups in our markets, we remain patient in our approach to leasing up our new communities and are prioritizing rents and long-term value creation, allowing us to achieve our expected lease-up rents and deliver stabilized NOI yields that continue to trend above our original expectations.

我們擁有或控制另外 12 個站點，並已批准近 3,300 個單位。在我們市場競爭激烈的租賃壓力之下，我們仍然耐心地租賃新社區，並優先考慮租金和長期價值創造，這使我們能夠實現預期的租賃租金並提供穩定的 NOI 收益率，繼續高於我們最初的預期。

Our development projects are well positioned to benefit from the declining new starts and the tightening supply backdrop. The acquisition market remains relatively quiet. Transaction volumes are still muted as bid-ask spreads persist and capital remains cautious given elevated interest rates.

我們的開發項目已做好準備，從新開工量下降和供應緊縮的背景下獲益。收購市場仍然相對平靜。由於買賣價差持續存在，且利率上升導致資本保持謹慎，交易量依然低迷。

That said, we are evaluating several opportunities. We have a stabilized suburban acquisition with a small Phase II development component in the Kansas City market under contract, and we expect it to close upon the completion of our due diligence review during the third quarter.

也就是說，我們正在評估幾個機會。我們已簽訂合同，將在堪薩斯城市場進行一項穩定的郊區收購，其中包含一個小型第二階段開發部分，我們預計該收購將在第三季度完成盡職調查後完成。

Our strong balance sheet and liquidity position will allow us to be opportunistic should more attractive acquisition opportunities become available in the second half of the year. With a 30-year track record of navigating economic cycles, we remain confident in our ability to execute through this transition period and that our focus on high demand and high-growth markets will continue to lead to higher earnings and lower volatility over the full cycle.

如果今年下半年出現更具吸引力的收購機會，我們強大的資產負債表和流動性狀況將使我們能夠抓住機會。憑藉 30 年的經濟週期經驗，我們對自己度過這段過渡期的能力充滿信心，並且我們對高需求和高成長市場的關注將繼續在整個週期中帶來更高的收益和更低的波動性。

Our markets continue to benefit from higher job growth, wage growth, household formation and demographic tailwinds than the national average. We're encouraged by the building blocks that are in place and the growing momentum heading into the back half of the year and remain confident in our ability to deliver compounding revenue and earnings performance as the recovery continues to accelerate.

我們的市場繼續受益於高於全國平均水平的就業成長、薪資成長、家庭形成和人口順風。我們對現有的基礎和下半年不斷增長的勢頭感到鼓舞，並且隨著經濟復甦的持續加速，我們仍然有信心實現複合收入和盈利業績。

To all our associates across our properties and in our corporate and regional offices, thank you for your continued dedication and focus during this pivotal leasing season.

對於我們所有物業、公司和地區辦事處的同事，感謝你們在這個關鍵的租賃季節的持續奉獻和關注。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

說完這些，我就把電話轉給提姆。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter, we saw a steady progression in new lease over lease rates from what was achieved in the first quarter. Though, as Brad mentioned, broad economic uncertainty did slow the pace of new lease pricing recovery that we saw through April and caused May and June new lease pricing to be a bit below our expectations.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家早安。在第二季度，我們看到新租賃的租賃率在第一季的基礎上穩步增長。不過，正如布拉德所提到的，廣泛的經濟不確定性確實減緩了我們在 4 月看到的新租賃價格復甦的步伐，並導致 5 月和 6 月的新租賃價格略低於我們的預期。

The uncertainty showed up twofold with prospects being more selective in making decisions and operators continuing to lean toward occupancy despite broadly improving market level occupancies. However, renewal lease performance represented by the high level of renewal acceptance and the rates achieved continue to outperform expectations.

不確定性表現為雙重性：潛在客戶在做決策時更加挑剔；儘管市場入住率普遍提高，但營運商仍傾向於入住率。然而，以高水準的續約接受度和實現的費率為代表的續約租賃表現繼續超出預期。

As a result, we saw lesser lease pricing improvement from the first to second quarter that exceeded 2024 for new leases and renewals, which manifested into stronger sequential blended pricing growth as compared to the prior year. Blended pricing for the quarter was 0.5%, which represented a 100 basis point improvement from the first quarter.

因此，我們看到第一季至第二季的租賃價格改善幅度較小，超過 2024 年的新租賃和續約，這表現為與前一年相比更強勁的連續混合價格成長。本季混合定價為 0.5%，比第一季提高了 100 個基點。

Along with the stronger pricing trend, we had stable average physical occupancy of 95.4% and another quarter of strong collections with net delinquency representing just 0.3% of billed rents. Our strongest performing markets continue to be consistent with what we have seen in the last few quarters, led by many of our mid-tier markets.

隨著定價趨勢的增強，我們的平均實際入住率穩定在 95.4%，並且又有四分之一的租金收款強勁，淨拖欠率僅佔已收費租金的 0.3%。我們表現最強勁的市場繼續與我們在過去幾季所看到的情況保持一致，其中以許多中端市場為首。

Our Virginia markets remain strong and other mid-tier markets such as Kansas City, Charleston and Greenville, all demonstrated strong pricing power. Of our larger markets, Tampa continued to show pricing recovery and Houston was steady as well.

我們的維吉尼亞市場依然強勁，堪薩斯城、查爾斯頓和格林維爾等其他中端市場也都表現出強大的定價能力。在我們較大的市場中，坦帕的價格繼續回升，休士頓也保持穩定。

We also continue to see a slow but steady recovery in Atlanta, which had our largest year-over-year improvement in both blended pricing and occupancy of any of our higher concentration markets. Austin continues to face record supply pressure, resulting in weaker new lease pricing, Phoenix and Nashville are two other markets facing significant pricing pressure.

我們還看到亞特蘭大繼續緩慢但穩定的復甦，在我們所有高集中度市場中，亞特蘭大的混合定價和入住率都實現了最大的同比增長。奧斯汀繼續面臨創紀錄的供應壓力，導致新租賃價格走弱，鳳凰城和納許維爾是另外兩個面臨巨大價格壓力的市場。

We have seen the uncertainty and higher leasing pressure particularly impact the leasing velocity in our lease-up portfolio. And in turn, we pushed the stabilization dates by one quarter for three of our lease-up properties, West Midtown, Vale and Valvista.

我們已經看到不確定性和更高的租賃壓力尤其影響了我們的租賃組合中的租賃速度。反過來，我們將三個租賃物業 West Midtown、Vale 和 Valvista 的穩定日期推遲了一個季度。

However, across our lease-ups, we've achieved rents to date, 2.5% ahead of pro forma. We had one property, MAA Boggy Creek, reached stabilization in the quarter, and our six remaining lease-up properties ended the quarter with a combined occupancy of 80.7%. Despite supply concerns, we continue to execute various targeted redevelopment and repositioning initiatives in the second quarter, and we expect to accelerate these programs over the remainder of 2025 and into 2026.

然而，透過我們的租賃，迄今為止我們實現的租金比預期高出 2.5%。我們有一處物業 MAA Boggy Creek 在本季達到穩定，我們剩餘的六處租賃物業在本季結束時的總入住率為 80.7%。儘管存在供應方面的擔憂，我們仍將在第二季度繼續執行各種有針對性的重建和重新定位計劃，並且我們預計將在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年加速這些計劃的實施。

Through the second quarter of 2025 year to date, we completed 2,678 interior unit upgrades, achieving rent increases of $95 above non-upgraded units and a cash-on-cash return in excess of 19%. This was an acceleration above volume and rent growth achieved from the first quarter.

截至 2025 年第二季度，我們已完成 2,678 個室內單元升級，租金比未升級單元高出 95 美元，現金回報率超過 19%。這是自第一季以來銷量和租金成長的加速。

Despite this more headed supply environment, these units leased on average 9.5 days faster that non-renovated units when adjusted for the additional turn time. We still expect to renovate approximately 6,000 units in 2025 with more expected in 2026.

儘管供應環境更加緊張，但考慮到額外的周轉時間，這些單位的租賃速度比未裝修單位平均快 9.5 天。我們仍預計在 2025 年翻新約 6,000 套住房，預計在 2026 年翻新更多住房。

For our repositioning program, we began repricing in the second quarter at five of our six recent repositioning projects with the last slated to begin repricing in August. Early results are encouraging with NOI yields in the low teens based on current pricing. We have identified several additional projects to start later this year with anticipated repricing in time for the (inaudible) in 2026 leasing season.

對於我們的重新定位計劃，我們在第二季度開始對最近六個重新定位項目中的五個進行重新定價，最後一個計劃於 8 月開始重新定價。早期結果令人鼓舞，根據目前定價，NOI 收益率處於十幾個百分點以下。我們已經確定了幾個將於今年稍後啟動的額外項目，預計將在 2026 年租賃季節之前重新定價。

Work also continues on 23 retrofits for community-wide WiFi with go-live dates planned through the remainder of 2025. With July closeout in process, we continue to see seasonal pricing and occupancy trends that are aligned with our guidance.

23 項社區範圍 WiFi 改造工作仍在繼續，計劃於 2025 年剩餘時間內投入使用。隨著 7 月收尾工作的進行，我們繼續看到與我們的指導一致的季節性定價和入住率趨勢。

July pricing is trending better than the second quarter and our current occupancy at the end of July is 95.7%. Our 60-day exposure for July of 7.1%, 10 basis points lower than last year and keeps us in a position for stable occupancy to allow for pricing power, assuming demand fundamentals remain intact.

七月的價格趨勢比第二季好，截至七月底我們的入住率為 95.7%。我們 7 月的 60 天風險敞口為 7.1%，比去年低 10 個基點，假設需求基本面保持不變，我們將能夠保持穩定的入住率，從而擁有定價權。

Brad noted the exceptionally strong absorption with absorption in our markets exceeding new supply for the fourth straight quarter or said another way, the fourth straight quarter with fewer available units for lease in our markets than the prior quarter.

布拉德指出，吸收量異常強勁，我們市場的吸收量連續第四個季度超過新增供應量，或者換句話說，連續第四個季度我們市場上可供租賃的單位數量少於上一季。

Strict in our renewals continues with the percentage of our residents accepting real offers exceeding last year's record level at least a release growth rates on renewals accepted for July, August and September in the 4.5% range.

我們繼續嚴格執行續約規定，接受實際報價的居民比例至少超過了去年的最高紀錄，7 月、8 月和 9 月接受續約的成長率在 4.5% 左右。

Strong absorption, declining deliveries and high retention rates underlie our optimism for an expected continuously improving lease environment over the next several quarters. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments.

強勁的吸收量、下降的交付量和較高的保留率使我們對未來幾季租賃環境的持續改善感到樂觀。這就是我準備好的全部評論。

Now I'll turn the call over to Clay.

現在我將把電話轉給克萊。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. We reported Core FFO for the quarter of $2.15 per diluted share, which was $0.02 per share ahead of the midline of our second quarter guidance.

謝謝你，提姆，大家早安。我們報告本季核心 FFO 為每股攤薄收益 2.15 美元，比我們第二季預期中線高出每股 0.02 美元。

The favorability to our guidance driven by $0.025 related to favorable overhead expenses, $0.01 of favorable interest expense and other nonoperating income and $0.005 from our same-store NOI performance, partially offset by unfavorable non-same-store NOI of $0.02, which was mostly driven by the impact of elevated supply pressure on the lease-up portfolio.

對我們的指導有利的因素包括 0.025 美元的有利管理費用、0.01 美元的有利利息費用和其他非營業收入以及 0.005 美元的同店 NOI 表現，但被 0.02 美元的不利非同店 NOI 部分抵消，這主要是由於租賃組合供應壓力增加的影響。

Our same-store revenue results for the quarter were in line with our expectations as revenues benefited from strong collections during the quarter. Our same-store expense performance was better than expected, primarily driven by real estate tax expense.

由於本季強勁的收款業績，我們的同店營收結果符合我們的預期。我們的同店支出表現優於預期，主要受房地產稅支出推動。

We now have more information relating to our real estate expense for the year as municipalities have started providing 2025 property valuations, which I'll discuss more with our revised guidance in a moment. During the quarter, we funded approximately $92 million in development costs for the current $943 million pipeline, leaving an expected $326 million to be funded on our current pipeline over the next two to three years.

由於市政當局已開始提供 2025 年的房地產估價，我們現在有了更多有關我們今年房地產支出的信息，稍後我將結合修訂後的指南對此進行進一步討論。在本季度，我們為目前價值 9.43 億美元的管道提供了約 9,200 萬美元的開發成本資金，預計未來兩到三年內我們將為現有管道提供 3.26 億美元的資金。

Our balance sheet remains well positioned to support future growth opportunities with $1 billion in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, and our low debt net to -- debt-to-EBITDA at 4 times. At quarter end, our outstanding debt was approximately 94% fixed with an average maturity of 6.7 years at an effective rate of 3.8%. We have an upcoming $400 million bond maturity in November that we plan to refinance later this year.

我們的資產負債表仍然處於有利地位，可以支持未來的成長機會，我們的循環信貸安排下擁有 10 億美元的現金和借貸能力，而且我們的淨債務與 EBITDA 之比較低，為 4 倍。截至季末，我們的未償債務約 94% 固定，平均期限為 6.7 年，有效利率為 3.8%。我們將於 11 月到期一筆價值 4 億美元的債券，並計劃在今年稍後進行再融資。

Finally, we are reaffirming the midpoint of our same-store NOI and Core FFO guidance for the year while revising other areas of our detailed guidance that we've previously provided. Given our operating results achieved in the second quarter, we are making slight adjustments to our guidance associated with same-store growth.

最後，我們重申了本年度同店淨營業利潤 (NOI) 和核心營運現金流量 (FFO) 指引的中點，同時修改了我們先前提供的詳細指引的其他部分。鑑於我們在第二季取得的經營業績，我們對與同店成長相關的指引進行了微調。

We are lowering the midpoint of effective rent growth guidance to negative 0.25% and while maintaining average fiscal occupancy guidance at 95.6% for the year. Total same-store revenue guidance for the year is revised to 0.1%, which also reflects continued (inaudible) collection performance over the back half of the year.

我們將有效租金成長指引的中點下調至-0.25%，同時將全年平均財政入住率指引維持在95.6%。全年同店總收入預期修正為 0.1%，也反映了下半年持續的（聽不清楚）收款表現。

We are lowering our same-store property and operating expense growth projections for the year to 2.25% at the midpoint. We have better insight into our real estate tax expense for 2025 and have lowered the midpoint of our guidance to 0.25%. The lower guidance is primarily due to favorable property valuations in certain jurisdictions as compared to our original expectations.

我們將今年同店物業和營業費用成長預測中位數下調至 2.25%。我們對 2025 年的房地產稅支出有了更深入的了解，並將指導中點降低至 0.25%。較低的指導主要是因為與我​​們最初的預期相比，某些司法管轄區的房地產估值更為有利。

Also, we recently renewed our property and casualty insurance program on July 1 and achieved an overall premium decrease on our property and casualty lines. We now expect our interest expense for the full year to increase by 1.3% as compared to last year. The changes to our property operating expense projections, combined with our updated same-store revenue expectations, resulted in us reaffirming our original expectation for same-store NOI at negative 1.15%.

此外，我們最近在 7 月 1 日更新了財產和意外保險計劃，並實現了財產和意外傷害險種的整體保費下降。我們現在預計全年利息支出將比去年增加 1.3%。我們對物業營運費用預測的變化，加上我們更新的同店收入預期，使我們重申了對同店淨營業利潤率負 1.15% 的最初預期。

In addition to updating our same-store operating projections, we are revising our 2025 guidance to reflect favorable trends in overhead expenses, along with adjusting our acquisition and disposition volume for the year given the current transaction market. The impact of these adjustments, combined with our continued focus on pricing in our lease-up portfolio resulted in us maintaining the midpoint of our full year Core FFO guidance at $8.77 per share by narrowing the range to $8.65 to $8.89 per share.

除了更新同店經營預測外，我們還在修改 2025 年指引，以反映管理費用的有利趨勢，同時根據當前交易市場調整當年的收購和處置量。這些調整的影響，加上我們對租賃組合定價的持續關注，導致我們將全年核心 FFO 指導的中點維持在每股 8.77 美元，並將範圍縮小至每股 8.65 美元至 8.89 美元。

That is all that we have in the way of prepared comments. So Regina, we will now turn the call back to you for questions.

這就是我們準備好的全部評論。那麼 Regina，我們現在將把電話轉回給您以回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc.

（操作員指示）Austin Wurschmidt，KeyBanc。

Tim, you mentioned that July trends are trending better than the second quarter. I was hoping you could expand a little bit on that comment and whether that's new lease rate growth that's driving improvement and exceeding what you've seen in recent months or if it's more of a function of the renewal strength and stronger retention you highlighted.

提姆，你提到七月的趨勢比第二季更好。我希望您能稍微詳細地闡述一下這個評論，看看這是否是推動改善並超過您最近幾個月所見的新租賃率增長，或者這是否更多地取決於您強調的續約力度和更強的保留率。

Yes. I mean it's a little bit of both. I mentioned the renewal trends in the prepared comments, we're continuing to see in that 4.5% range, really through the end -- through the rest of the third quarter and continuing to see the acceptance rates be a little bit higher than what we saw before. So that's certainly playing a part of it.

是的。我的意思是兩者都有一點。我在準備好的評論中提到了續簽趨勢，我們繼續看到 4.5% 的範圍內，實際上直到第三季度結束 - 直到第三季度的剩餘時間，並且繼續看到接受率比我們之前看到的要高一點。所以這肯定是其中的一部分。

But we are seeing new lease rates so far trend better than what we saw and actually the best new lease rate on a lease-over-lease basis we've had so far this year. So that's what gives us some confidence in what we're expecting to continue to see an improving environment as we get to the last part of the year.

但到目前為止，我們看到的新租賃率趨勢比我們所看到的要好，實際上這是我們今年迄今在租賃基礎上獲得的最佳新租賃率。因此，這讓我們對今年下半年環境的持續改善充滿信心。

That's really helpful. And I guess how much of the changes to your 2025 lease rate growth assumption reflect what's happened in the first half of the year versus how much was a function of changing the second half projection and just that trajectory of fundamentals from here?

這真的很有幫助。我想，您對 2025 年租賃率成長假設的變化有多少反映了上半年發生的情況，有多少是下半年預測變化的結果，以及從現在開始的基本面軌跡？

I would say, effectively, the -- what occurred in Q2 was the biggest impact. There's obviously a lot of leases that that expire in Q2, we intentionally obviously move them towards the strongest part of the leasing season.

我想說，實際上，第二季發生的事情影響最大。顯然有很多租約將在第二季到期，我們有意將它們移至租賃季節最旺盛的時期。

But we revised the total lease-over-lease guidance by roughly 100 basis points. We were somewhere around 1.5% in our prior guidance, roughly around 0.5%. So it's a little bit of a combination of both, but what we saw in the second quarter was the biggest part of the adjustment.

但我們將總租賃額指導值修改了約 100 個基點。我們之前的預測是 1.5% 左右，大約是 0.5% 左右。所以這有點兩者的結合，但我們在第二季看到的是調整的最大部分。

Cooper Clark, Wells Fargo.

庫柏克拉克，富國銀行。

I just wanted to follow up on Austin's question. I'm curious what the expectation for new lease rate growth is in the current embedded guidance? And what gives you confidence in the updated range given continued volatility from the lease-up inventory?

我只是想跟進奧斯汀的問題。我很好奇，目前嵌入式指導中對新租賃率成長的預期是什麼？鑑於租賃庫存持續波動，是什麼讓您對更新後的範圍充滿信心？

Yes. I mean we're somewhere in the negative 4% range, give or take, for the back half of the year on the new lease side that's driving the the pricing guidance. And then as we mentioned, continue to see renewals play a larger part of the of the combination and continue to see the real rates be strong.

是的。我的意思是，對於推動定價指導的新租賃方面來說，今年下半年我們的降幅大約在-4%左右。然後，正如我們所提到的，繼續看到續約在組合中發揮更大的作用，並繼續看到實際利率保持強勁。

I mean, what gives us the confidence is a few things. One, the renewal rate we're seeing. We've got good visibility into September for that and starting to get October as well. Current occupancy where we stand right now, as I mentioned, is 95.7%, expect that to trend through August at similar rate.

我的意思是，有幾件事給了我們信心。首先，我們看到的續訂率。我們對九月的情況有了很好的了解，十月份的情況也開始明朗起來。正如我所提到的，我們目前的入住率為 95.7%，預計整個 8 月的入住率將保持類似的趨勢。

Our exposure is at a better spot than it was this time last year. And then just a macro level on some of the uncertainty we're seeing consumer sentiment take back up, chances of a recession are lower than they were before.

我們的曝光度比去年同期好。從宏觀層面來看，我們看到消費者情緒正在回升，經濟衰退的可能性比以前更低。

So I think there's less uncertainty in the market as well that helps from a consumer and an operator sentiment standpoint, and then the absorption that Brian and I both mentioned in the prepared comments, continues to be really strong.

因此，我認為市場中的不確定性也減少了，這對消費者和運營商情緒有幫助，然後 Brian 和我在準備好的評論中提到的吸收仍然非常強勁。

In fact, there's -- if you look at no absorption we've had over the last four quarters, it was about 85,000 fewer units in our (inaudible) available to lease than there was all months ago with the absorption. And I expect that to continue to grow, be well over $100,000 as we move through the back part of the year.

事實上，如果你看一下我們過去四個季度的吸收量，你會發現，與幾個月前吸收量相比，可供租賃的單位減少了約 85,000 套。我預計，到今年下半年，這一數字將繼續增長，並遠遠超過 10 萬美元。

And then the last point I would make is just from a comp standpoint, the last two years in Q3, our cumulative new lease rates were down about 8%. And in Q4, cumulative new lease rates were down about 15%. So there's an easier comp component to it as well.

我要說的最後一點是，僅從比較的角度來看，過去兩年第三季度，我們的累計新租賃率下降了約 8%。第四季累計新租賃率下降了約 15%。因此它也有一個更簡單的補償組件。

Okay. That's helpful.

好的。這很有幫助。

Real quick. This is Brad. I agree with everything Tim said. The one thing that I would add to that, that gives us confidence as we head into the back half of the year is, in second quarter, we continue to be in a high level of supply situation that continues to decline, yet if you look at our performance in the second quarter, clearly, we saw blended lease pricing turned positive.

真的很快。這是布拉德。我同意提姆所說的一切。我想補充一點，當我們進入下半年時，這給了我們信心，那就是在第二季度，我們的供應量繼續處於高水平，並且還在繼續下降，但如果你看看我們在第二季度的表現，很明顯，我們看到混合租賃價格轉為正值。

We saw a pretty good improvement in blended lease pricing second quarter versus first quarter. But if you look at the rate of improvement this year versus what we saw last year, we've seen an acceleration in the midst of an environment where we saw increased uncertainty, and we saw still high levels of supply.

與第一季相比，我們發現第二季的混合租賃定價有了相當大的改善。但如果你對比今年與去年的改善速度，我們會發現，在不確定性增加、供應水準仍然較高的環境下，改善速度有所加快。

So all of that really comes together to give us confidence that the back half of the year should progress in line with what our current expectations are.

因此，這一切確實讓我們有信心，今年下半年的進展將符合我們目前的預期。

Okay. That's super helpful. And then switching to the capital allocation with the Charleston development start and the Kansas City acquisition noted earlier.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後轉向資本配置，啟動查爾斯頓開發項目並收購前面提到的堪薩斯城項目。

Is it fair to say your incremental dollar will continue to be away from more of the mature Sunbelt markets and into your Midwest and small-format Sunbelt markets like your Charlestons or Savannah. And then any comments on cap rate or expected yield from the Kansas City acquisition can share would be great.

是否可以說，您的增量資金將繼續遠離更成熟的陽光地帶市場，而轉向中西部和小型陽光地帶市場，如查爾斯頓或薩凡納？然後，如果您能分享有關堪薩斯城收購的資本化率或預期收益的任何評論，那就太好了。

Yes, sure. I mean I wouldn't read anything into where our incremental dollar is going away from the Sunbelt. I mean that is not our focus at all.

是的，當然。我的意思是，我不會解讀出我們的增量資金從陽光地帶流向了哪裡。我的意思是這根本不是我們的重點。

We certainly believe in the merits of investing our capital in the highest demand region of the country. If you look over time, performance in earnings growth, dividends performance is most highly correlated with the strength of demand, which we think correlates highly with the Sunbelt markets in the US.

我們確實相信將我們的資本投資於該國需求最高的地區是值得的。如果從時間角度來看，獲利成長、股利表現與需求強度的相關性最高，我們認為這與美國陽光地帶市場高度相關。

So we'll continue to invest our capital in those markets. You will see us continue to invest capital, both in our large markets as well as our mid-tier markets, which Charleston and I'd say Kansas City are both more of our mid-tier markets.

因此我們將繼續向這些市場投資。您將看到我們繼續在大型市場和中型市場投入資金，其中查爾斯頓和堪薩斯城都屬於我們的中型市場。

So you'll see us continue to invest capital in that manner. As I mentioned in my opening comments, the Charleston development is a 6.1% yield. So the developments that we've executed over the last 12 months or so have been in that 6% to 6.5% range.

所以你會看到我們繼續以這種方式投資資本。正如我在開場白中提到的，查爾斯頓開發案的收益率為 6.1%。因此，我們在過去 12 個月左右實施的開發案一直在 6% 到 6.5% 的範圍內。

We're still seeing select opportunities in that range that you can expect us to continue to execute on as we continue to build out that development pipeline. On the acquisition side, the Kansas City acquisition, there's two phases there. One to stabilized acquisition.

我們仍然看到該範圍內的精選機會，您可以期待我們在繼續建立開發管道時繼續執行這些機會。在收購方面，堪薩斯城收購分為兩個階段。一是穩定收購。

That's probably in the high 5s from an NOI yield perspective. We have a Phase II -- small Phase II development to go along with that, which combined will expand the total development yield to about a 6.3% or so on the entire development.

從 NOI 收益角度來看，這可能是 5% 以上的高點。我們正在進行第二階段——小型第二階段開發，這將使整個開發的總開發收益率擴大到約 6.3% 左右。

Eric Wolfe, Citi. It's actually Nick [Carr] on for Eric this morning.

花旗銀行的埃里克·沃爾夫。今天早上實際上是尼克 [卡爾] 代替埃里克。

So I guess the first one I have is just on Atlanta. Obviously, minus 40 bps same-store revenue growth quarter over quarter. I guess I would have thought that would have been a bit better on a sequential basis given we talked about some improvement there last quarter. So I guess if you could just walk through what's -- what you're seeing on the ground there, that would be helpful.

所以我想我第一個想到的就是亞特蘭大。顯然，同店營收季增下降了 40 個基點。考慮到我們上個季度談到的一些改進，我想我會認為情況會比上一季好一些。所以我想如果你能簡單地介紹一下你在那裡看到的情況，那將會很有幫助。

Yes. I mean we're continuing to see some positive momentum out of Atlanta. I mean it was coming from a pretty low spot with -- if you think back to early '24, there were occupancy and pricing concerns there. So it's -- the revenue growth is trailing looking. So it takes some time for it to really start to show up.

是的。我的意思是我們繼續看到亞特蘭大的一些積極勢頭。我的意思是，它來自一個相當低的點——如果你回想一下 24 年初，那裡有入住率和定價問題。因此，營收成長看起來落後了。因此它需要一些時間才能真正開始顯現。

I mean it's still at a level below, I would say, the average of our portfolio. But when you think about the improvement from last year, it's one of the best.

我的意思是，它仍然處於低於我們投資組合平均值的水平。但當你想到與去年相比的進步時，你會發現這是最好的進步之一。

In fact, as I mentioned, when you combine our improvement in blended lease to release in Atlanta compared to last year, in our improvement in occupancy. The combination of those two is better than what we saw in any of our other large markets. And then delinquency continues to not be an issue.

事實上，正如我所提到的，當你將亞特蘭大混合租賃與釋放量的改善與去年相比結合起來時，我們的入住率就提高了。這兩者的結合比我們在任何其他大型市場中看到的都要好。那麼，犯罪就不再是一個問題。

It's down to almost the portfolio average. And then we've started to see concessions come down a little bit, particularly Midtown Atlanta has been has been a spot where we've seen huge concessions still there, but they've come down a little bit.

它幾乎下降到了投資組合的平均值。然後我們開始看到優惠有所減少，特別是亞特蘭大中城，我們看到那裡仍有巨大的優惠，但已經減少了一點。

We've seen it down a little bit in Northwest Atlanta as well. So it will take some time to really show up on the revenue side, but we're encouraged with (inaudible) trending.

我們也看到亞特蘭大西北部的情況有所下降。因此，它需要一些時間才能真正體現在收入方面，但我們對（聽不清楚）趨勢感到鼓舞。

Right. Got it. And then I apologize if I missed it, but did you give like a specific blended lease expectation for the back half of the year if you didn't, could you inform us on that?

正確的。知道了。如果我錯過了，我很抱歉，但是您是否給出了下半年的具體混合租賃預期，如果沒有，您能告訴我們嗎？

Yes. So we're somewhere around 0.8% or so for the back half of the year on a blended basis.

是的。因此，以綜合計算，今年下半年的成長率約為 0.8% 左右。

Nicholas Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nicholas Yulico。

So I guess first question is as we think about the pricing, and I think your leasing, you said being a little bit slower than expected in the last couple of months. What is the driver of that? Is it -- I know we've all known about supply for a while, but it feels like there's also a general demand problem that's hitting multifamily.

所以我想第一個問題是，當我們考慮定價時，我認為您的租賃情況，您說在過去的幾個月裡比預期的要慢一點。造成這種情況的原因是什麼？是的——我知道我們都知道供應問題已經有一段時間了，但感覺多戶住宅也存在普遍的需求問題。

And I'm not sure as well for Sunbelt market if you're also facing the opposite of the benefit from in-migration if now you're facing out migration or just other issues in those markets from a demand standpoint. So can you just talk a little bit about what you're seeing on the ground?

我也不確定對於陽光地帶市場來說，是否也面臨著人口流入帶來的利益的反面，是否現在又面臨人口流出的問題，或者從需求的角度來看這些市場還有其他問題。那麼，您能否簡單談談您在實地看到的情況？

Yes. Nick, this is Brad. I would start out by saying that we are certainly not seeing any problems whatsoever on the demand side.

是的。尼克，這是布拉德。首先我想說的是，我們在需求方面確實沒有看到任何問題。

If you go back to what we saw going into the second quarter, we were seeing very significant and very strong new lease over lease improvement on a monthly basis. Even going into April, we saw new lease over lease rent growth in the 100, 150 basis point range, which was in line with what our expectations were.

如果回顧我們進入第二季度的情況，我們可以看到每月新租賃的租賃改善非常顯著且強勁。即使進入 4 月份，我們也看到新租賃租金成長率在 100 到 150 個基點之間，這符合我們的預期。

We expected that to continue. As we got into May, we saw that market operators began to focus a little bit more on occupancy, which clearly had an impact in terms of the rate of the recovery that we expected. But there's no demand concerns whatsoever in our region of the country.

我們預計這種情況將會持續下去。進入五月份，我們發現市場營運商開始更加關注入住率，這顯然對我們預期的復甦速度產生了影響。但我們這個地區根本不存在需求問題。

In fact, if you look at the varying demand metrics that are out there, we monitor absorption. As I mentioned in my comments, we're seeing record absorption in our region of the country, the highest that we've seen in the last 25 years.

事實上，如果你觀察現有的各種需求指標，我們就會監測吸收量。正如我在評論中提到的，我們所在地區的吸收量創下了歷史新高，是過去 25 年來的最高水準。

And if you look at the gap between the trailing 12-month absorption and supply, we are approaching COVID levels in terms of the gap between excess supply. And really what that means is that absorption is significantly outpacing new deliveries.

如果你看一下過去 12 個月的吸收量和供應量之間的差距，你會發現就供應過剩之間的差距而言，我們正在接近 COVID 水平。這實際上意味著吸收量遠遠超過新增交付量。

And the point that Tim made a moment ago, based on that excess absorption, we have 85,000 fewer units to lease in our market today than we had at this time last year. You couple that with the fact that supply continues to decline significantly from where we are today and demand continues to hold in there.

正如提姆剛才提出的觀點，基於過度吸收，我們今天市場上可供租賃的單位比去年同期減少了 85,000 套。再加上供應量較目前水準持續大幅下降，而需求量則持續保持穩定。

That gap in the reduction of supply that's available to lease will quickly become 100,000 units, 120,000 units, and that will have a significant impact on the acceleration of performance in our region of the country.

可供租賃的供應量減少的缺口將很快達到 10 萬套、12 萬套，這將對我們地區業績的加速產生重大影響。

We're not seeing any slowdown on migration trends. So that's still a net positive of 6% or so. It's down from pre-COVID highs, but it's still in line with -- sorry, it's down from COVID highs, but in line with pre-COVID numbers. So we're not seeing any concerns whatsoever on the various demand metrics that we look at.

我們沒有看到移民趨勢有任何放緩。因此這仍然是 6% 左右的淨正值。它比新冠疫情之前的最高點有所下降，但仍與——抱歉，它比新冠疫情之前的最高點有所下降，但與新冠疫情之前的數字一致。因此，從我們所觀察到的各種需求指標來看，我們並沒有發現任何擔憂。

Okay. Just second question is, I know you gave some numbers about the back half of the year, new lease rate growth. And you talked about the prior couple of years, and it was down, I think, last year in the back half.

好的。第二個問題是，我知道您給了一些關於今年下半年新租賃率成長的數據。您談到了前幾年的情況，我認為去年下半年有所下降。

I mean, at what point -- can you just explain to us at what point do your comps become easy because we're thought that if you were down substantially a year ago on new lease rate growth in the back half of the year, you would get some comp benefit this year, but it doesn't seem like that from what you talked about with new lease expectations.

我的意思是，在什麼時候——您能否向我們解釋一下，在什麼時候您的比較會變得容易，因為我們認為，如果一年前下半年新租賃率增長大幅下降，那麼您今年會獲得一些比較收益，但從您談到的新租賃預期來看，情況似乎並非如此。

Yes, Nick, this is Tim. We do think there is some comp benefit. I mean the biggest drivers are everything we've talked about from a demand standpoint, absorption and all that.

是的，尼克，這是提姆。我們確實認為存在一些補償福利。我的意思是，最大的驅動力是我們從需求角度討論的一切，吸收等等。

But there is a piece of it that's easier comps, particularly, to your point, in the back part of the year and particularly in the fourth quarter, where we've seen it trail off quite a bit in the last two years. So if you look at just our new lease rents over the last couple of years, they're down cumulatively 8% in Q3 and 15% in Q4.

但其中一部分更容易比較，特別是如您所說，在今年下半年，特別是在第四季度，我們已經看到它在過去兩年中下降了不少。因此，如果您只看過去幾年我們的新租賃租金，您會發現第三季累計下降了 8%，第四季累計下降了 15%。

And so we've obviously got much better supply/demand fundamentals now in a good shape, as I mentioned, with occupancy and exposure. So we do think that plays a component in our expectation for less seasonality than what we would typically see.

因此，正如我所提到的，我們的供需基本面顯然已經好得多，而且入住率和曝光率都處於良好狀態。因此，我們確實認為，這在我們預期季節性會比通常看到的要低的程度中起到了一定作用。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

I think you guys have talked a little bit about pace recovery here. And so maybe piggybacking on that, I wanted to ask about how absorptions that you're seeing today, how does that compare to maybe what your forecast would have been three months ago or six months ago, recognizing the the pricing is what it is, but I think just to maybe underscore what's happening with demand. I would love to hear just about how absorptions are trending relative to your expectations?

我想你們在這裡已經談論了一些關於步速恢復的問題。因此，也許基於這一點，我想問一下您今天看到的吸收情況，與您三個月前或六個月前的預測相比如何，認識到價格就是這樣，但我認為可能只是為了強調需求正在發生的情況。我很想聽聽看吸收趨勢與您的預期相比如何？

Yes. This is Tim. I mean we expected absorption to continue to be strong. I mean, it's hard to pinpoint exactly what that -- what's dialed into the numbers, but we know to Brad's point a minute ago, the demand factors have continued to be strong, particularly in the Sunbelt and then we know supply deliveries each quarter have been dropping. So we expected a level of absorption.

是的。這是蒂姆。我的意思是我們預計吸收量將繼續保持強勁。我的意思是，很難準確地指出這些數字到底是什麼，但我們知道布拉德剛才指出的，需求因素持續強勁，特別是在陽光地帶，然後我們知道每個季度的供應交付量都在下降。因此我們預期會有一定程度的吸收。

I mean there's a few markets, few spots where -- and we talked about with the lease-up portfolio where leasing velocity has slowed a bit, but it's more in pockets with a lot of supply. But I would say general -- in general, absorption has been really strong. We expected it to be really strong. I think it will be even stronger over the next couple of quarters.

我的意思是，有幾個市場，幾個地方——當我們談到租賃組合時，租賃速度有所放緩，但更多的是在供應量很大的地區。但我想說，總的來說，吸收能力確實很強。我們預計它會非常強大。我認為在接下來的幾個季度裡它會更加強勁。

Great. And maybe a similar question on deliveries. What is the forecast, I guess, for 3Q and 4Q for deliveries. How does that compare? I mean the first half of 2025. And whether that's national or in your markets, I think it would be helpful context.

偉大的。關於交付也許還有類似的問題。我猜，第三季和第四季的交付量預測是多少？相比之下如何？我指的是2025年上半年。無論是在全國範圍內還是在您所在的市場，我認為這都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean in our markets, if you compare last year to this year, we're expecting about a 25% or so drop in new supplies as compared to last year. We saw that occur a little bit in the first half, but it was probably down 10% or 15% in the first half of the year compared to what it's been trending. So I would expect it to accelerate a little bit from what we saw in the first part of the year.

是的。我的意思是，在我們的市場中，如果將去年與今年進行比較，我們預計新供應量將比去年下降約 25% 左右。我們看到上半年出現了一些這種情況，但與目前的趨勢相比，上半年可能下降了 10% 或 15%。因此我預計其增速會比今年上半年略有加快。

Jana Galan, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Jana Galan。

It's great to see the renewals for the third quarter remain in the mid-4% range, but just curious how long do you feel that they could stay in that range? And is it a function of wage growth? Or is it the churn in the portfolio that it's not the same residents that received a similar increase last year?

很高興看到第三季的續約率保持在 4% 左右的範圍內，但好奇您認為它們能保持在這個範圍內多久？它是薪資成長的函數嗎？還是因為投資組合的變動導致去年獲得類似成長的居民不再是同一批人？

Yes, this is Tim. I think it's some of that. I think those points you just made a play in a part of it. I think the service we provide plays a lot of it. We have mentioned this, I think, last quarter that we have the highest Google scores in the sector, and I think that customer service plays a part in it.

是的，我是提姆。我認為是這樣的。我認為你剛才提出的那些觀點只是其中的一部分。我認為我們提供的服務發揮了很大的作用。我想，我們上個季度就提到過，我們在該領域擁有最高的 Google 評分，我認為客戶服務在其中發揮了一定作用。

And we do a very thoughtful analysis when we go out with our renewal offers on tiering it based on where people are relative to market. But we bidded this period for now going on about eight quarters where new lease pricing has struggled, but we've continued to see renewal rates hold in this 4.5% range.

當我們推出續約優惠時，我們會進行非常周到的分析，根據人們相對於市場的位置對其進行分級。但我們認為，目前這段期間已經持續了大約八個季度，新租賃定價一直處於困境，但我們繼續看到續約率保持在 4.5% 的範圍內。

So I think there's a lot of qualitative factors I just mentioned beyond the just straight numbers that help that. And even though turnover is down, we're still turning 40% or so of our portfolio each year. So there's a factor there that plays into it.

所以我認為，除了直接的數字之外，還有很多定性因素有助於實現這一點。儘管營業額下降，但我們每年的營業額仍達到投資組合的 40% 左右。所以這裡面有一個因素在運作。

But no reason to expect that we should see anything different going forward from what we've seen in the last two years.

但沒有理由期望未來會出現與過去兩年不同的情況。

And then maybe just following up on the turnover. Do you expect that in the second half to be similar to '24 or even lower given what's going on with interest rates.

然後也許只是跟進營業額。考慮到利率的現狀，您是否預計下半年的利率水準會與 24 年類似甚至更低？

I think so far with what we've seen in Q3 and renewal accept rates that we continue to be a little bit lower than where we were in '24. So I would expect that into Q3. Q4 is always a little bit higher turnover quarter. But again, no reason. We don't see any reason to expect that's going to change.

我認為到目前為止，從我們在第三季度看到的情況來看，續約接受率仍然比 24 年的水平略低。所以我預計這會進入第三季。第四季的營業額總是會稍微高一些。但同樣，沒有理由。我們沒有理由期待這種情況會改變。

There's not a people aren't leaving us to buy houses, the rent increase turnover due to rate increases down. So we don't see any larger factors that would suggest that, that number would creep back up in the fourth quarter.

沒有一個人不離開我們去買房子，租金上漲導致成交量因利率上漲而下降。因此，我們看不到任何更大的因素表明該數字會在第四季度回升。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS Financial.

瑞銀金融的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

How has the competitive pricing environment across operators in your markets trended? Are other operators pushing occupancy? And if so, how much occupancy improvement do you think they would need in order to be comfortable to return to pushing rate again.

您所在市場營運商之間的競爭定價環境趨勢如何？其他業者是否正在提高入住率？如果是這樣，您認為他們需要將入住率提高多少才能舒適地再次恢復推高率。

Yes. I mean I do think we have seen operators push more towards occupancy broadly, and I think that was a factor that played into Q2, where even though we saw in our markets, occupancy increase from Q1 to Q2 broadly 40 or 50 basis points. So I think there is still some hesitancy on the operator front to push pricing perhaps when they could have a little more.

是的。我的意思是，我確實認為我們已經看到運營商在廣泛推動入住率，我認為這是影響第二季度的一個因素，儘管我們看到在我們的市場中，入住率從第一季到第二季度大致增加了 40 或 50 個基點。因此我認為，運營商方面仍然有些猶豫，也許他們本可以稍微提高一點價格。

And we've been pushing pricing where we think we can or where we should. But I mean, with where we sit today, we're at 95.7%, as I mentioned, we'll continue to have a targeted approach where we're where we have exposure and current vacancy in a good position, we'll push price.

我們一直在我們認為可以或應該的地方推動定價。但我的意思是，就我們目前的情況而言，我們已經達到了 95.7%，正如我所提到的，我們將繼續採取有針對性的方法，在我們有曝光度且當前空置率良好的地方，我們將推高價格。

And where we don't, we'll push occupancy. But I think broadly where the macro environment is and where consumer sentiment is and improving fundamentals, it will become more of a rate pushing environment, particularly as we get into 2026.

如果我們沒有做到這一點，我們就會提高入住率。但我認為，從宏觀環境、消費者情緒和基本面改善來看，利率將進一步上漲，尤其是進入 2026 年後。

Got it. And I recognize it's a small market for you, but Northern Virginia had a material slowdown in same-store revenue growth in the quarter relative to the first quarter. So can you discuss what trends you're seeing in that market in particular?

知道了。我知道這對你們來說是一個小市場，但北維吉尼亞州本季的同店營收成長與第一季相比大幅放緩。那麼，您能具體討論一下您在該市場看到的具體趨勢嗎？

Yes. I mean we've seen it slow down a little bit. I mean, obviously, that market has been strong for going on six, seven quarters now. So I think a little bit is just coming into tougher comps. We did see similar to what we saw more broadly, just a little more choosy on the prospect side and then particularly in our Pentagon area asset.

是的。我的意思是我們已經看到它有點慢了。我的意思是，顯然，該市場已經連續六、七個季度保持強勁。所以我認為一點點只是進入更艱難的比賽。我們確實看到了與我們更廣泛地看到的類似的情況，只是在前景方面更加挑剔，特別是在我們的五角大樓區域資產方面。

We've seen renewal except rate go down a little bit just with some of the uncertainty on people taking the (inaudible) and that thing. I don't think there's anything necessarily unique to that market, different than others. I think it's more just naturally slowed a little bit as it's had a really strong six or seven quarters.

我們已經看到續約率略有下降，只是因為人們對（聽不清楚）之類的事情存在一些不確定性。我認為該市場並沒有什麼獨特之處，與其他市場沒有什麼不同。我認為它只是自然地放緩了一點，因為它已經經歷了非常強勁的六到七個季度。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布、派珀·桑德勒。

Two questions. First, just big picture because everyone is asking about new rents, and you guys talk about improving fundamentals, improving demand, 85,000 fewer units this year than last. And yet new rents are still down and things are still lethargic.

兩個問題。首先，只是總體情況，因為每個人都在詢問新租金，而你們談論的是基本面改善、需求改善，今年的房屋數量比去年減少了 85,000 套。然而，新租金仍然下降，情況仍然低迷。

How much of it do you think is just pure rent fatigue over the past few years that new prospects even if they're relocating within the market or just fed up with the rent increases, and therefore, as they're looking, they're just being much more cautious about what they're going to pay versus someone who's renewing has already made the decision that they're just staying there. So how much of it do you think is that dynamic versus other factors?

您認為這在多大程度上只是過去幾年中純粹的租金疲勞，以至於新客戶即使在市場內重新安置或只是厭倦了租金上漲，因此，當他們尋找時，他們只是對自己將要支付的費用更加謹慎，而那些續約的人已經做出了繼續住在那裡的決定。那麼，您認為與其他因素相比，這種動態因素佔多大比例？

Alex, this is Brad. There's nothing that we see that indicates that there's a level of rent fatigue in the market that's causing the rate of recovery to be less than what we expected.

亞歷克斯，這是布拉德。我們沒有看到任何跡象表明市場存在一定程度的租金疲勞，導致復甦速度低於我們的預期。

I mean, in fact, if you look at the wage growth in our region of the country, it continues to be strongly positive. Our rent-to-income ratios are actually down this quarter versus prior quarters. So we're seeing improvements in that -- in those levels.

我的意思是，事實上，如果你看看我們這個地區的薪資成長情況，就會發現它仍然保持著強勁的正成長。與前幾季相比，本季我們的租金收入比實際上有所下降。因此，我們看到了這些層面的改善。

And we do continue to get the 4% to 5% renewal increases. So from our perspective and from what we see in the market, the consumer confidence readings that we get that really decreased corresponding with some of the uncertainty that came into the market after liberation date.

我們的續約率確實持續維持在 4% 至 5% 之間。因此，從我們的角度來看以及從我們在市場上看到的情況來看，我們獲得的消費者信心讀數確實下降了，這與解放後市場出現的一些不確定性相對應。

All of that plays into, I think, the psychology of the operators in the market, really getting a bit nervous to performance, what performance looked like and really focusing, as Tim mentioned, on occupancy. To us, everything that we're seeing seems to indicate that, that's the issue that we're facing right now, not rent fatigue or a demand issue or anything on that side of the equation, the demand continues to be very, very strong.

我認為，所有這些都影響了市場運營商的心理，他們對業績、業績表現以及真正關注入住率（正如蒂姆提到的）確實有點緊張。對我們來說，我們所看到的一切似乎都表明，這就是我們目前面臨的問題，而不是租金疲勞或需求問題或任何類似的問題，需求仍然非常強勁。

Okay. Second question is, you mentioned that deliveries are taking a little bit longer. In general, I think you guys said some years and I think broader market is, do you have a sense for how much of this year's supply will slip into next year? Just trying to understand the peak supply this last year and this year, trying to understand how much are we going to have to contend with spill over in 2016?

好的。第二個問題是，您提到交貨時間稍微長了一點。總的來說，我認為你們說的是一些年份，我認為更廣泛的市場是，你是否知道今年的供應量有多少會進入明年？只是想了解去年和今年的高峰供應情況，想了解 2016 年我們要處理多少溢出問題？

Yes. This is Tim. I don't think it's material. I mean if we look at quarterly supply that's been delivered, I mean it has dropped off pretty good over the last two quarters, and I expect it will drop out even more in Q3 and Q4.

是的。這是蒂姆。我不認為這是物質的。我的意思是，如果我們看一下已交付的季度供應量，就會發現過去兩個季度供應量已經大幅下降，我預計第三季和第四季的供應量將進一步下降。

So I mean, there's certainly some of that, but I think more of the leasing velocity slowdown that we've seen is for the reasons we've been talking about, which is just some of the uncertainty that we saw in Q2 and less units taken longer to be delivered.

所以我的意思是，肯定存在一些這樣的情況，但我認為我們看到的租賃速度放緩更多的是出於我們一直在談論的原因，這只是我們在第二季度看到的一些不確定性，以及交付單位減少和交付時間延長。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫‧薩誇 (Steve Sakwa)，Evercore ISI。

Could you guys talk about maybe some of the changes that you've made on your underwriting for the developments, either on the revenue side, the cost side, time to lease up? And what maybe changes or cost changes are you seeing on the construction cost side?

你們能否談談你們在開發核保方面所做的一些改變，包括收入方面、成本方面、租賃時間方面？您在建築成本方面看到了哪些變化或成本變化？

Yes, Steve, this is Brad. We have honestly made a whole lot of changes in terms of our underwriting, our development underwriting is pretty conservative. If you look at the yields that we're achieving on our development deals, they're 20% to 30% higher than what we originally underwrote.

是的，史蒂夫，這是布拉德。說實話，我們在核保方面做出了很多改變，我們的開發承保相當保守。如果你看看我們在開發交易中獲得的收益，你會發現它們比我們最初承保的收益高出 20% 到 30%。

So we feel pretty good about our underwriting process in our ability to achieve the returns that we have in our development. Yes, the properties that we have in lease up today, we are prioritizing achieving the rents that we expected versus pulling forward some maybe performance from '26 into 2025 by lowering prices to get occupancy, and that has some implications for this year.

因此，我們對我們的核保流程感到非常滿意，因為我們有能力實現我們在開發中獲得的回報。是的，對於我們今天出租的房產，我們優先考慮實現預期的租金，而不是透過降低價格來提高入住率，從而將 26 年的一些業績提前到 2025 年，這對今年有一定影響。

But our long-term value creation opportunity is still intact with all of our developments. So we still feel really good about our approach to development on the cost side. Honestly, we're not seeing -- costs are pretty flat at the moment. We're not seeing really any increase associated with tariffs or immigration or anything like that at the moment.

但隨著我們所有的發展，我們的長期價值創造機會仍然完好無損。因此，我們仍然對我們的成本方面的開發方法感到非常滿意。老實說，我們沒有看到——目前成本相當平穩。目前我們還沒有看到與關稅、移民或類似因素相關的任何成長。

Certainly something that will continue to keep an eye on the labor market and things of that nature. But feel really good about our development opportunities that we are under construction on right now as well as the -- a few others that we're pursuing at the moment.

當然，我們會繼續關注勞動市場和諸如此類的事情。但我們對我們目前正在建立的發展機會以及目前正在追求的其他一些發展機會感到非常高興。

Okay. And then second, just maybe on real estate taxes. Maybe just broadly, what are you seeing from the various municipalities? And I know that number is down about 2.5% through the first six months. But is that more of just a one-off thing this year, or do you think that's maybe something that could be more of a tailwind on the expense side for the next couple of years?

好的。其次，也許就是房地產稅。也許只是大致而言，您從各個城市看到了什麼？我知道前六個月這個數字下降了約 2.5%。但這僅僅是今年的一次性事件嗎？或者您認為這在未來幾年可能會對支出產生更大的推動作用？

Yes, Steve, this is Clay. Yes, I do think it could be a bit of a tailwind as we move forward or maybe said it a little differently, maybe not as much of a headwind as it had been in years past.

是的，史蒂夫，這是克萊。是的，我確實認為這可能會成為我們前進過程中的一股順風，或者換一種說法，也許不會像過去幾年那樣成為一股逆風。

When you think about the environment that at least that we're in our markets and with the negative same-store NOI growth the past couple of years, that should continue to carry through over the next cycle or two depending on when some of these municipalities read value, summary value, once a year, summary value once every four years.

當你考慮到至少我們所處的市場環境以及過去幾年同店淨營業利潤負增長的情況時，這種情況應該會在接下來的一兩個週期內持續下去，具體取決於這些市政當局何時讀取價值、匯總價值、每年一次、每四年一次的匯總價值。

So that will be a little dependent on each respective municipalities timing. But I do think that we can see some potential help there in future years as these -- as they look back to these periods of declining NOI growth.

因此這將在一定程度上取決於各個城市的時間安排。但我確實認為，當他們回顧這些 NOI 成長下降的時期時，我們可以在未來幾年看到一些潛在的幫助。

We can take that and we also factor in the cap rates that are out there. Those seem to be relatively stable. We talk about new developments being in mid- to upper 4s, but I think overall, cap rates in general on the average are relatively stable over the past couple of years. So it will probably lean a little bit more towards operating income results.

我們可以接受這一點，我們也會考慮現有的資本化率。這些看起來相對穩定。我們談論的新開發項目處於 4 的中上水平，但我認為總體而言，過去幾年的平均資本化率總體上相對穩定。因此它可能更傾向於營業收入結果。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

I think I want to follow up and combine a couple of prior questions, but just to dig a little deeper on this peak delivery phenomenon. So there's obviously a a longer tail when it comes to lease-up after properties delivered, and you have talked a little bit about slower leasing velocity that's impacting your numbers.

我想跟進並結合幾個先前的問題，但只是為了更深入地探討一下這種高峰交付現象。因此，在物業交付後，租賃期顯然會更長，而且您剛才談到了租賃速度較慢對您的資料的影響。

So when does that dynamic do you think peak? And then how does that flow through to when -- again, to echo other people on this call to when new lease pricing would improve and really start to reflect that dynamic tailing off, if that makes sense.

那麼您認為這種動態何時達到頂峰？那麼，這將如何延續到什麼時候呢？再次，與電話會議中其他人的觀點一致，即新的租賃定價何時會改善，並真正開始反映出這種動態下降趨勢，如果這說得通的話。

Yes. I mean we saw deliveries in our markets peak around Q2, Q3 of last year, and we've seen it slowly trend down from there. Now it's still obviously at an elevated level in terms of comparing to what historically a normal year may be. So obviously, still seeing the pressure from that. But going back to the absorption point, each quarter, that's gotten greater absorption.

是的。我的意思是，我們看到我們市場的交付量在去年第二季、第三季達到頂峰，然後我們看到交付量從那時起逐漸下降。與歷史上正常年份相比，現在的情況顯然仍處於較高水準。顯然，我們仍然面臨來自這方面的壓力。但回到吸收點，每季的吸收量都在增加。

We see the excess units that are out there dropped significantly. So I think the challenge for the rest of this year is you also have the normal seasonality and you have less traffic generally looking for apartments in the back part of the year.

我們看到過剩單位數量大幅下降。因此，我認為今年剩餘時間的挑戰是，您還會遇到正常的季節性因素，並且在今年下半年尋找公寓的客流量通常會減少。

So it won't show up quite as much as it probably otherwise would if it were the peak leasing season, but I think you'll really start to see that momentum as you get into the spring of next year.

因此，如果是租賃旺季，它可能不會出現那麼多，但我認為，到明年春季，你會真正開始看到這種勢頭。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then just on the transaction environment, you did mention, I think, in the prepared comments that there remains a fairly wide bid-ask spread, at least in certain pockets.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，就交易環境而言，我認為您在準備好的評論中確實提到，至少在某些領域，買賣價差仍然存在相當大的情況。

Anecdotally, you would see that lenders are maybe starting to get a little more aggressive with troubled borrowers, you troubled assets from the the COVID era. So I mean, is that -- does that reflect anything you're seeing? Does that create opportunity? Or is that just more headlines that don't really apply to this situation?

有趣的是，你會發現貸款人可能開始對陷入困境的借款人、即 COVID 時代的不良資產採取更積極的態度。所以我的意思是，這是否反映了您所看到的任何事情？這是否創造了機會？或者這只是一些不真正適用於這種情況的標題？

Yes, this is Brad. I mean, I would say, in our markets, we're not really seeing distress in the market. Honestly, we're not seeing that manifest itself in the way of of good buying opportunities. In fact, the cap rates for deals that traded in the second quarter that we tracked were were down from first quarter. They were about a 4.7% in second quarter.

是的，這是布拉德。我的意思是，我想說，在我們的市場中，我們並沒有真正看到市場困境。老實說，我們並沒有看到這種好的購買機會。事實上，我們追蹤的第二季交易的資本化率較第一季下降。第二季這一比例約為 4.7%。

So cap rate -- there's not a lot of transactions. I think they were only maybe 10 or 12 that we track, which is very low. So not a lot of transactions, we're not a lot of distress in the market at this point. We'll continue to certainly keep our eyes on that, but nothing at the moment in that area.

因此資本化率——交易並不多。我認為我們追蹤的可能只有 10 或 12 個，這個數字非常低。因此，交易量並不大，目前市場並沒有出現太多困境。我們將繼續關注這一點，但目前該領域還沒有任何進展。

Bradley Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德利‧赫弗恩 (Bradley Heffern)。

Previously, you expected positive new lease spreads in the third quarter. Obviously, you aren't guiding to that at this point. But I'm curious, when do you think you will see those spreads turn positive.

此前，您預計第三季的新租賃利差為正。顯然，您現在還沒有引導到這一點。但我很好奇，您認為什麼時候會看到這些利差轉為正值。

I mean it's difficult to say, but I do think '26 looks a lot better for all the reasons we've talked about. So I think as you get into the spring and summer of next year is most likely the time.

我的意思是這很難說，但我確實認為，由於我們討論過的所有原因，26 年看起來要好得多。所以我認為明年春季和夏季最有可能就是這個時間。

Okay. Got it. And then do you have a loss lease or gain to lease figure that you can get?

好的。知道了。那麼，您能得到租賃損失或租賃收益的數字嗎？

Yes. So if you look at the way we think about loss lease, if you look at all the leases we did in July compared to all of our in-place leases, there's about a 2% loss to lease, but it's always the largest this time of the year. July is the peak of the year typically.

是的。因此，如果您看一下我們對損失租賃的看法，如果您將我們在 7 月進行的所有租賃與我們所有的現有租賃進行比較，就會發現租賃損失約為 2%，但這始終是每年這個時候最大的損失。七月通常是一年中的高峰。

So that number tends to gap out a little bit this time of the year, even in a tougher supply-demand year, and then I would expect it to trend back down a little bit as we get to the back part of the year.

因此，即使在供需情況更為嚴峻的年份，這個數字在每年的這個時候也往往會出現小幅差距，然後我預計，到今年下半年，這個數字會略有回落。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

瑞穗，Haendel St. Juste。

So a couple of questions here. First one, I guess, I'm curious how long do you think this low supply narrative for Sunbelt plays out? Looks like the low supply window is now being pushed out to 2028. I think a couple of months ago, we're talking about 2027.

這裡有幾個問題。首先，我很好奇您認為陽光地帶的供應不足現象會持續多久？看起來低供應窗口現在被推遲到 2028 年。我想幾個月前我們還在談論 2027 年。

So can you talk about how difficult it is perhaps for private developers to get equity, debt capital, and how much either rents have to grow or how much their capital costs have to come down for the private side of the business to be able to hit the hurdles and maybe get the development engine starting again.

那麼，您能否談談私人開發商獲得股權和債務資本有多困難，以及租金必須增長多少或其資本成本必須下降多少，私人開發商才能突破障礙並重新啟動開發引擎。

Haendel, this is Brad. Yes, I mean as part of our development platform. We part with a lot of merchant developers to build through our prepurchase program. So we're looking at 30 to 40 equity packages a quarter. And on average, we might find one that really hits our return thresholds above a 6% NOI yield with realistic underwriting.

亨德爾，這是布萊德。是的，我的意思是作為我們開發平台的一部分。我們與許多商家開發商合作，透過我們的預購計劃進行建構。因此，我們每季會考慮 30 到 40 個股權方案。平均而言，我們可能會找到一個真正達到我們的回報門檻，即 6% 以上的 NOI 收益率，並且具有現實的承保能力。

Most of those are falling in the mid to low 5% range on realistic underwriting. So those are going to need -- the returns are have to improve 10% to 20% or so to make those feasible.

根據實際承保情況，其中大多數都處於 5% 中低範圍內。因此，這些都需要——回報率必須提高 10% 到 20% 左右才能實現。

So that's a combination of construction cost reduction, rent growth improvement in order to make those numbers work on a more broad basis. But I think really the biggest -- the next biggest challenge right now is the availability of capital. Equity capital is very challenged to get in development deals today.

因此，這是建築成本降低和租金成長改善的結合，目的是使這些數字在更廣泛的基礎上發揮作用。但我認為目前最大的挑戰——下一個最大的挑戰是資金的可用性。如今，股權資本在開發交易中面臨很大的挑戰。

So we certainly don't see that on the horizon up. If you look at the development pipeline and the new starts that we're seeing, they are significantly below the last 12 months below historical averages.

所以我們肯定不會看到這種情況的發生。如果你看一下我們所看到的開發管道和新開工項目，你會發現它們明顯低於過去 12 個月的歷史平均值。

And we certainly have seen that trend down every single quarter for the last year or so in our region of the country, and we do think that, that continues for the next few quarters to years at this point. The availability of capital is a big challenge at the moment.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們確實看到我們所在地區每個季度的下降趨勢，而且我們確實認為，這種情況將在未來幾季甚至幾年持續下去。目前，資金的可用性是一個巨大的挑戰。

That's helpful. And maybe one more, you mentioned a few times here your desire to acquire assets, talk about the broader market, but also talked about your lower leverage here. So I guess I'm curious how much you'd be willing to lean into that.

這很有幫助。也許還有一點，您在這裡幾次提到您希望收購資產，談論更廣泛的市場，同時也談到了您的較低槓桿率。所以我很好奇你有多願意接受這一點。

What (inaudible) carries a lower cost? And how much buying power that could allow you to perhaps do more deals. So maybe how much you can lean into debt to fund deals before you get to leverage levels that -- or maybe bump up against some leverage levels?

什麼（聽不清楚）成本較低？以及多大的購買力可以讓你做更多的交易。那麼，在達到槓桿水平之前，或者可能達到某些槓桿水平之前，您可以依靠多少債務來為交易提供資金？

Haendel, this is Clay. Yes, so we're sitting at 4 times levered as we here at the end of the quarter. We'd be happy to take that up to 4.5 times to 5 times.

亨德爾，這是克萊。是的，因此截至本季末，我們的槓桿率已達到 4 倍。我們很樂意將其提高至 4.5 倍至 5 倍。

So that would be additional, call it, $1 billion, maybe a little bit north of $1 billion. So we've got plenty of room there on the balance sheet to really begin to lean into these opportunities that are coming up, whether there are more acquisitions or on the development front.

所以這將是額外的，可以說，10億美元，也許略高於10億美元。因此，我們的資產負債表上有足夠的空間來真正開始抓住即將出現的機會，無論是更多的收購還是在開發方面。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的 John Kim。

I had a question on seasonality, and how you think that compares versus prior years? I know you mentioned that the July lead pricing is favorable versus the second quarter. But I was wondering if you could discuss how that compares versus June.

我有一個關於季節性的問題，您認為與前幾年相比如何？我知道您提到七月份的鉛價比第二季度要優惠。但我想知道您是否可以討論一下這與六月相比如何。

Yes. I mean it's trending better than June as well. I mean, on an (inaudible) basis July, what's to be our best new lease pricing month of the year. And so as mentioned on the seasonality, we're certainly dialing in less seasonality in the back part of the year for all the reasons we mentioned that we still expect that Q4 would be lower on a blended basis than what Q3 is.

是的。我的意思是它的趨勢也比六月更好。我的意思是，從（聽不清楚）7 月來看，這將是我們一年中新租賃定價最好的月份。正如在季節性方面提到的那樣，由於我們提到的所有原因，我們肯定會在下半年減少季節性的影響，我們仍然預計第四季度的綜合收入將低於第三季。

Okay. And then you mentioned Atlanta being one of your best markets in terms of blended pricing and occupancy.

好的。然後您提到亞特蘭大是你們在混合定價和入住率方面最好的市場之一。

I was wondering if you were surprised on the news that net migration turned slightly negative for the first time in the market? And if that -- if you had seen that in your portfolio and if that changes how you allocate capital to the market?

我想知道您是否對市場上淨移民數量首次略微轉為負值的消息感到驚訝？如果您在您的投資組合中看到了這一點，而這改變了您向市場分配資本的方式？

Well, one point of clarification in Atlanta, we saw the most improvement from last year on pricing. It's not -- it's still lagging the portfolio. So there's still a lot of room to run in Atlanta, but we're encouraged by the trends. But broadly not concerned about the migration trend at all.

嗯，需要澄清的是，亞特蘭大的定價比去年有了最大的改善。事實並非如此——它仍然落後於投資組合。因此，亞特蘭大仍有很大的發展空間，但我們對這一趨勢感到鼓舞。但整體上根本不關心移民趨勢。

I mean, as Brad mentioned earlier, we're right at where we are at pre-COVID levels, which is having 10%, 11%, 12% of our move-ins come from outside of our footprint, and only 4% to 5% of our move-outs leaving our footprint is still a net 5%, 6%, 7% in migration trend, and that's remained very steady over the last several quarters.

我的意思是，正如布拉德之前提到的，我們現在處於新冠疫情之前的水平，即有 10%、11%、12% 的遷入者來自我們業務範圍之外，只有 4% 到 5% 的遷出者離開我們的業務範圍，淨遷移趨勢仍然是 5%、6%、7%，並且在過去幾個季度中保持非常穩定。

Rob Stevenson, Janney.

羅伯史蒂文森、珍妮。

Tim, you talked about Austin, Phoenix and Nashville as weak given supply. Are you seeing any positive signs in those markets? Or they have enough tough six to nine months ahead of them?

提姆，您說奧斯汀、鳳凰城和納許維爾的供應量很弱。您是否看到這些市場有任何正面跡象？或者他們接下來的六到九個月已經夠艱難的了？

Well, I mean, often, not seeing a lot of positive trends there. I mean, it trended a little bit down in the back part of Q2 in terms of new lease pricing, and it just continues to get -- while supply is on an absolute basis is down a little bit this year compared to last. It's still really high in that market.

嗯，我的意思是，通常看不到很多正面的趨勢。我的意思是，就新租賃價格而言，第二季後半段趨勢略有下降，並且還在繼續下降——而今年的供應量與去年相比絕對量略有下降。在那個市場上它的價格仍然很高。

Now I will say for (inaudible) -- one for also the demand fundamentals remain one of our top one, two to three markets in terms of all the migration, household formation, job growth. So it will turn around once again is the supply mix.

現在我要說的是（聽不清楚）——就所有移民、家庭組成、就業成長而言，需求基本面仍然是我們的前一、二到三大市場之一。因此，供應結構將再次改善。

And one other point I'll make in (inaudible) is that, it's actually our lowest rent-to-income ratio market that we have right now. So really healthy resident base there. I think once the supply pressure wins. I think that market is poised to do really well. On Nashville, we have seen concessions come down a little bit in the downtown area.

我想在（聽不清楚）中提到的另一點是，這實際上是我們目前的租金收入比最低的市場。那裡的居民基礎確實很健康。我認為一旦供應壓力獲勝。我認為該市場將會表現良好。在納許維爾，我們看到市中心地區的優惠有所減少。

I mean it's really downtown and around that area of Nashville that's been the hardest hit. We're seeing a little bit better performance out in the suburbs. So I think that's a market that could turn around a little quicker. And then Phoenix probably somewhere in the middle. It's still a struggle with a lot of supply, particularly focused in certain submarkets.

我的意思是，受災最嚴重的是納許維爾市中心及其周邊地區。我們看到郊區的表現稍微好一點。所以我認為這個市場可能會更快好轉。而菲尼克斯可能處於中間位置。由於供應量很大，這仍然是一個難題，特別是在某些子市場。

But the job engine and all the things that are going on there, I expect that probably turns around -- so had to rank it, I'd say probably National Phoenix also in terms of the time of which turns around a little bit quicker.

但是，我預計就業引擎和那裡正在發生的所有事情可能會好轉——因此必須對其進行排名，我認為就時間而言，國家鳳凰城可能也會好轉得更快一些。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Brad, beyond Kansas City, can you talk about which of the 12 owned and controlled development sites are both ready to start and make sense from a return and supply demand perspective over the next 6 to 12 months for you guys?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，布拉德，除了堪薩斯城之外，您能否談談，在未來 6 到 12 個月內，你們擁有和控制的 12 個開發地點中，哪些已經準備好啟動，並且從回報和供需角度來看對你們來說是有意義的？

Yes. I mean over the next 6 to 12 months, we should have a pretty healthy start level. I mean we've got a Phase II site in Raleigh that we're currently working on. It's out to to price at the moment. We've got a site -- actually two sites in D.C. that we're working on right now that are still pretty compelling from a return and a long-term value perspective.

是的。我的意思是，在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內，我們應該會有一個相當健康的起步水準。我的意思是，我們目前正在羅利建設一個第二階段的站點。目前價格尚未確定。我們目前在華盛頓特區有一個站點——實際上是兩個站點，從回報和長期價值的角度來看，它們仍然非常有吸引力。

We have a couple of sites or a site in Orlando with a couple of phases to it that we're working on pricing. So of the 12 sites that we currently have and the Kansas City deal has the Phase II site, which will start in the next, call it, six months or so.

我們在奧蘭多有幾個站點，或者說有一個站點，有幾個階段，我們正在製定價格。因此，我們目前擁有 12 個站點，堪薩斯城交易中有第二階段站點，該站點將在未來六個月左右啟動。

But of all of the sites that we have control or owned I think it's important to note that they are all approved. We are just waiting for market fundamentals to turn a little bit more in our favor to support our disciplined growth of that pipeline and a return that we think makes sense for us.

但在我們控製或擁有的所有站點中，我認為值得注意的是它們都已獲得批准。我們只是在等待市場基本上面對我們更有利一點，以支持我們該管道的有序增長和我們認為對我們有意義的回報。

So over -- I'd say, over the next 6 to 12 months, we will have four to five starts in that development pipeline.

所以我想說，在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內，我們將在該開發流程中啟動四到五個專案。

Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

邁克爾·劉易斯 (Michael Lewis)，Truist Securities。

I have just one bigger picture, longer-term question. We've obviously had this big wave of new supply, and I saw now there's a bill in the US Senate to try to make adding housing easier across the country.

我只有一個更大、更長期的問題。我們顯然已經迎來了這一波新的住房供應浪潮，而且我看到美國參議院現在正在審議一項法案，試圖讓全國範圍內的住房供應變得更加容易。

But I read an article that said many southern markets are suddenly starting to look a lot more like California and coastal markets in terms of not in my backyard when it comes to adding new supply. So in other words, maybe every American sales in (inaudible) it just didn't show up in the South because sprawl was still possible and maybe that's starting to get exhausted.

但我讀到一篇文章說，在增加新供應方面，許多南方市場突然開始變得更像加州和沿海市場，因為它們不在我的後院。換句話說，也許美國在（聽不清楚）的銷售並沒有出現在南方，因為城市擴張仍有可能，而這種擴張可能已經開始耗盡。

So my question is, are you seeing any changes in any of your markets in terms of local community starting to push back on new supply or raise barriers, so that may be the next supply wave whenever it comes, will be more limited. And does that -- I know you guys are very much focused on demand. But are there lessons learned in the last two years in terms of an eye on supply and the way you pick your markets as well?

所以我的問題是，您是否看到您所在的任何市場發生任何變化，當地社區開始推遲新的供應或提高障礙，因此無論何時到來，下一波供應都可能更加有限。那麼這樣做嗎——我知道你們非常關注需求。但是，在過去的兩年中，您是否在關注供應和選擇市場的方式方面吸取了教訓？

Yes. I mean, definitely. And this is Brad, by the way. In certain markets, of ours, there is a strong pushback against multifamily. In fact, the city here where our office is located in German town, they've had a moratorium on new multifamily developments.

是的。我的意思是，絕對是如此。順便說一下，這是布拉德。在我們的某些市場中，多戶住宅面臨強烈的抵制。事實上，我們辦公室所在的德國城已經暫停了新的多戶住宅開發案。

And you see that in a lot of the municipalities of where we're located. Charleston in Mount Pleasant had a moratorium for a while against multifamily development. So there is a lot of pushback against multifamily and a lot of uphill battles and discussions that have to occur.

在我們所在的許多城市，你都可以看到這種情況。芒特普萊森特的查爾斯頓曾一度禁止多戶住宅開發。因此，多戶住宅面臨很大的阻力，需要進行許多艱苦的鬥爭和討論。

And I think sometimes there's a misnomer that in the Sunbelt it takes you six months to start building a project. And the reality is it still takes a year to two years from when you identify a project and to be able to put a shovel in the ground.

我認為有時存在一種誤解，認為在陽光地帶，需要六個月的時間才能開始建造一個項目。而現實情況是，從確定專案到動工仍需要一到兩年的時間。

We had a project in Raleigh, I think it took us five years from when we started working on it to get project under construction. So I do think there are constraints in terms of these suburban Sunbelt markets that really restrict a significant ramp-up in the supply wave that will impact future supply.

我們在羅利有一個項目，我認為從開始著手到項目開工建設花了五年時間。因此，我確實認為這些郊區陽光地帶市場存在一些限制因素，這些因素確實限制了供應浪潮的大幅成長，進而影響未來的供應。

Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

Linda Tsai，傑富瑞集團。

Just one for me. I think you mentioned 85,000 fewer units over the last four quarters in your markets and said it would increase to 100,000 to 125,000 fewer points -- fewer units at some point. Was the time frame for this the second half of this year or the first half of next year?

對我來說只有一個。我認為您提到了過去四個季度您所在市場的單位數量減少了 85,000 台，並表示在某個時候單位數量將減少到 100,000 到 125,000 個點。這個時間範圍是今年下半年還是明年上半年？

Yes. So the point we're making is on the absorption front where we've obviously had more units being absorbed in the last four quarters and what's supplied. And so that's about 85,000 through Q2. Yes, I would expect this -- later this year, it gets beyond 100,000.

是的。因此，我們要強調的是，在吸收方面，過去四個季度我們顯然吸收了更多的單位，而且供應量也增加了。到第二季為止，這個數字大約是 85,000。是的，我預計今年稍後這個數字將超過 100,000。

I mean, we saw that number go from 45,000 to 85,000 just in Q2. So I think when you combine just the number of units being delivered, continuing to drop with no really changes in demand. I think you get to that number later this year.

我的意思是，僅在第二季度，我們就看到這個數字從 45,000 增加到了 85,000。因此，我認為，如果只考慮交付的單位數量，就會發現需求持續下降，而需求並沒有真正的改變。我認為今年晚些時候你就能達到這個數字。

Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

亞歷克斯金（Alex Kim），澤爾曼與合夥人。

I just wanted to ask about something that's been asked tangentially by others, but I just wanted to frame it a little differently. Just what if at all, has surprised you about the supply environment so far this year that has materially impacted pricing power?

我只是想問一些其他人間接問過的問題，但我只是想以稍微不同的方式來表達。那麼，今年迄今為止的供應環境是否讓您感到驚訝，並對定價能力產生了實質影響？

I don't know that the supply environment in and of itself has been much of a surprise. I mean there's been a few delays here and there. I think it's more some of the leasing velocity. And so the uncertainty that popped up in Q2 has been -- was certainly more of a surprise relative to our expectations.

我不知道供應環境本身是否令人感到意外。我的意思是，這裡和那裡都出現了一些延誤。我認為這更多的是租賃速度。因此，第二季度出現的不確定性——相對於我們的預期來說，無疑更令人意外。

I think particularly on the operator side where, again, the point I was making earlier that occupancies were accelerating from Q1 to Q2, but didn't really see a lot of pricing power. I don't think the nervousness both on the operator side and the prospects side or what was driving that? I think it's less of a change in the supply expectations that we had.

我認為特別是在營運商方面，正如我之前所說，入住率從第一季到第二季正在加速，但並沒有真正看到很大的定價權。我不認為營運商和潛在客戶雙方都感到緊張，或者是什麼導致了這種現象？我認為我們對供應預期的改變並不大。

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. And then just a quick one. Just could you talk through what your expectations are for the operating environment in the out years when some of your more recent starts will deliver.

好的。是的，這很有幫助。然後就簡單說一下。您能否談談您對未來幾年營運環境的期望，以及您最近開始的一些專案將會帶來什麼結果？

Yes. This is Brad. I'll give you a little sense of that. I mean as we talked about, certainly, our development pipeline is pretty well positioned to deliver on what we think is going to be a very low supply environment. And just for context, the long-term average supply in our market is probably in that 3% to 3.5% range.

是的。這是布拉德。我給你稍微解釋一下這一點。我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，我們的開發管道確實已經做好了充分的準備，可以在我們認為供應非常低的環境下實現目標。僅就背景而言，我們市場的長期平均供應量可能在 3% 到 3.5% 的範圍內。

If you look at the trailing 12-month starts in our region of the country, it's about 1.7%. And for the comment I made earlier, continues to trend down every quarter. So that really speaks to a pretty good operating environment that we have over the next few years.

如果你看一下我們這個地區過去 12 個月的開局情況，你會發現這個數字約為 1.7%。正如我之前所言，每季都呈現下降趨勢。這確實顯示我們未來幾年將擁有相當良好的經營環境。

And I think for context, there's a couple of different periods that you can certainly look at. As I mentioned in my earlier comments, if you go back and you look at the T12 gap between demand and supply, where demand is exceeding supply to get to the level that we're at today, you have to go back to the COVID period of '22 and '23.

我認為，就背景而言，有幾個不同的時期你可以參考。正如我在之前的評論中提到的，如果你回顧一下 T12 需求和供應之間的差距，你會發現需求超過供應才能達到我們今天的水平，你必須回到 22 年和 23 年的 COVID 時期。

And certainly, during that period of time, average NOIs were pretty high in the low double-digit range. Alternatively, if you just look at the start -- or excuse me, the delivery numbers that are expected in 2026, you really have to go back to the GFC period after GFC period, call it, 11 and 12 to match those supply levels.

當然，在那段時間內，平均 NOI 相當高，處於兩位數的低位範圍內。或者，如果你只看開始——或者對不起，2026 年預計的交付數量，你真的必須回到一個又一個的全球金融危機時期，稱之為 11 和 12 才能匹配那些供應水平。

And of course, we had four to five years of performance at that point where NOIs were in the 5% to 6% range. So -- and that occurred for, as I mentioned, four to five years. So we'll see where we go from here.

當然，當時我們已經有四到五年的業績，其中 NOI 在 5% 到 6% 的範圍內。所以 — — 正如我所提到的，這種情況持續了四到五年。因此我們將看看接下來會發生什麼。

But I think based on the points that we made earlier believe that certainly acceleration in 2026 based on diminishing supply, less uncertainty in the market, certainly are good building blocks for recovery from where we are right now.

但我認為，基於我們先前提出的觀點，基於供應減少、市場不確定性減少，2026 年經濟肯定會加速，這無疑是我們目前經濟復甦的良好基石。

Ann Chan, Green Street.

安‧陳 (Ann Chan)，綠街。

Just following up on the earlier question from Steve, on the cost side of development economics. Just quickly shifting to the revenue side. Could you walk us through the key assumptions behind your yield targets?

我只是繼續回答史蒂夫之前提出的問題，關於發展經濟學的成本面。只是快速轉向收入方面。您能否向我們介紹一下收益目標背後的關鍵假設？

Like what rent growth and leasing velocity assumptions are you using to support the mid-single-digit yields that you've mentioned, I think 6% development yields you mentioned recently. And have you made any recent changes to those underwriting assumptions to account for maybe slower lease-up periods or other market trends you're serving?

例如，您使用什麼樣的租金成長和租賃速度假設來支持您提到的中位數個位數收益率，我認為您最近提到的開發收益率是 6%。您最近是否對這些承保假設做了任何更改，以考慮到租賃期放緩或您​​所服務的其他市場趨勢？

No, we really haven't, and as I mentioned there, we really haven't made any changes to our assumptions. The 6.1% yield for the Charleston development. Based on the market comps that we look at, we do a very deep dive in terms of what truly (inaudible) that our traffic -- we will compete for traffic for.

不，我們確實沒有，正如我所提到的，我們確實沒有對我們的假設做任何改變。查爾斯頓開發案的收益率為 6.1%。根據我們所關注的市場情況，我們對真正（聽不清楚）我們的流量——我們將為何而競爭流量進行了深入研究。

And if you look at that, the difference between our stabilized rents and today's market comps that market is less than 5%. So when we deliver that project in three years, we're expecting rents to increase from today's rates less than 5%.

如果你看一下，你會發現我們的穩定租金與當今市場租金之間的差異不到 5%。因此，當我們在三年內完成該專案時，我們預計租金將比現在的水平上漲不到 5%。

And we believe that's pretty conservative given that the market expects cumulative rent growth over the next three years to be over 11%. So we feel good about how we underwrite our developments.

我們認為，鑑於市場預計未來三年累計租金成長率將超過 11%，這一數字相當保守。因此，我們對於我們承保開發的方式感到很滿意。

We're pretty conservative, as I mentioned earlier, with our current development is trending toward a yield that's about 30 basis points higher than what we originally expected. So no major changes in how we look at development. Yes, our lease-up velocity is a little bit less right now.

正如我之前提到的，我們相當保守，我們目前的發展趨勢是收益率比我們最初預期的高出約 30 個基點。因此，我們對發展的看法沒有重大變化。是的，我們現在的租賃速度有點慢。

But certainly, when these developments are delivering over the next two to three years. The operating environment is expected to be quite a bit different than it is right now. So we've not sped up lease-up to take that into account. It's in line with what our historical underwriting standards are.

但可以肯定的是，這些發展將在未來兩到三年內實現。預計營運環境將與現在有很大不同。因此，我們沒有加快租賃速度來考慮這一點。這與我們的歷史承保標準一致。

[Mason Gal], Baird.

[梅森·加爾]，貝爾德。

Just one for me. I appreciate all the development lease-up commentary, but can you provide an update specifically on how your two acquisition lease-ups are performing? And are there any changes to those initial yield expectations?

對我來說只有一個。我感謝所有關於開發租賃的評論，但您能否具體說明一下您的兩項收購租賃的執行情況？最初的收益預期有什麼變化嗎？

Yes, this is Tim. No real change to the yield assumptions on those. I mean, as we talked about with some of the others, the leasing velocity was a little bit behind. We're doing okay on the rent. So I think broadly, once those are fully stabilized, the yield expectations are intact.

是的，我是提姆。這些收益假設並沒有真正的改變。我的意思是，正如我們與其他一些人討論的那樣，租賃速度有點落後。我們的房租還算可以。因此我認為，整體而言，一旦這些因素完全穩定下來，收益率預期就會保持不變。

We have no further questions. I will return the call to MAA for any closing comments.

我們沒有其他問題了。我將回電給 MAA 詢問任何結束語。

No further comments from us. If you got any questions, don't hesitate to reach out. Thank you, everybody.

我們不再發表任何評論。如果您有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝大家。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。