Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Mid-America Apartment Communities or MAA's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) This conference call is being recorded today, Thursday, October 31, 2024.

早上好，歡迎參加中美洲公寓社區或 MAA 的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）本次電話會議將於今天（2024 年 10 月 31 日星期四）錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer, and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments.

現在我將把電話轉給 MAA 高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer 發表開場評論。

Thank you, Julianne, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team participating on the call this morning are Eric Bolton, Brad Hill, Tim Argo, Clay Holder, and Rob DelPriore. Before we begin with prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections.

謝謝朱麗安，大家早安。我是 Andrew Schaeffer，MAA 財務主管兼資本市場總監。今天早上參加電話會議的管理團隊成員包括 Eric Bolton、Brad Hill、Tim Argo、Clay Holder 和 Rob DelPriore。在我們今天早上開始發表準備好的評論之前，我想指出，作為本次討論的一部分，公司管理層將做出前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。

We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34-Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results. During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data.

我們鼓勵您參考昨天的收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及我們向 SEC 提交的 34 法案文件，其中描述了可能影響未來業績的風險因素。在本次電話會議中，我們也將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的收益發布和補充財務數據中可以找到最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的介紹以及非公認會計原則和可比較公認會計原則指標之間差異的調節。

Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.

我們的收益發布和補充資料目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的「投資者專區」頁面上取得。我們準備好的評論副本和本次電話會議的錄音也將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。經過一些簡短的準備評論後，管理團隊將可以回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Eric.

我現在將把電話轉給埃里克。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. Third quarter results for core FFO were ahead of our expectations as same-store NOI came in better than our forecast. Based on our analysis, we believe the peak deliveries of new supply that is impacting our submarkets and properties occurred this past third quarter. Despite this record high supply pressure in Q3, we were able to capture solid performance in occupancy, record low resident turnover, strong collections, and better-than-expected performance with operating expenses, which all contributed to the third quarter NOI results. In addition, as Tim will detail in his comments, we are beginning to see early trends with new lease pricing that support our position that the worst of the pressures on pricing from new supply are likely behind us.

謝謝，安德魯，早安。核心 FFO 第三季業績超出了我們的預期，因為同店 NOI 優於我們的預期。根據我們的分析，我們認為影響我們子市場和房地產的新供應高峰發生在去年第三季。儘管第三季供應壓力創歷史新高，但我們仍能在入住率、創紀錄低居民流動率、強勁收款以及營運支出方面取得好於預期的表現，這些都為第三季的NOI 業績做出了貢獻。此外，正如蒂姆將在他的評論中詳細介紹的那樣，我們開始看到新租賃定價的早期趨勢，這支持了我們的立場，即新供應定價的最嚴重壓力可能已經過去。

As we have been discussing for the past year or so, we are now poised to see moderating trends in the amount of new supply deliveries that are impacting our portfolio as we head into 2025. We expect to see normal seasonal leasing patterns for the next couple of quarters and remain convinced that the spring leasing season will usher in the start of a recovery cycle with more favorable leasing conditions as demand and absorption trends across our markets remain strong and the volume of new supply deliveries steadily declines. With strengthening leasing conditions, significant redevelopment opportunity in our existing portfolio, and meaningful efficiency gains from various new technology initiatives, we are excited about the upside outlook from our existing asset base. This momentum, coupled with the significant expansion of our external growth pipeline from our in-house new development projects, our prepurchase joint venture program, and our recent new property acquisitions, all combine for what we believe is a positive outlook for meaningful value growth.

正如我們在過去一年左右的時間裡一直在討論的那樣，隨著我們進入 2025 年，我們現在準備好看到影響我們投資組合的新供應交付量的放緩趨勢。我們預計未來幾季將出現正常的季節性租賃模式，並堅信春季租賃季將以更有利的租賃條件迎來復甦週期的開始，因為我們市場的需求和吸收趨勢仍然強勁，而且租賃量也很大。隨著租賃條件的改善、現有投資組合的重大再開發機會以及各種新技術舉措帶來的顯著效率提升，我們對現有資產基礎的上行前景感到興奮。這種勢頭，加上我們內部新開發項目、我們的預購合資計劃以及我們最近的新地產收購所帶來的外部成長管道的顯著擴張，所有這些結合在一起，構成了我們認為有意義的價值增長的積極前景。

Before turning the call over to Brad, I'd like to send my appreciation out to our MAA associates for their tremendous work and great results over this very busy third quarter.

在將電話轉給 Brad 之前，我想向我們的 MAA 同事表示感謝，感謝他們在這個非常繁忙的第三季度所做的大量工作和取得的出色成果。

Now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

現在我將把電話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, Eric, and good morning, everyone. MAA's long-term strategy of focusing on high-growth markets and diversifying within those markets uniquely positions our portfolio to benefit from the continued strong demand in our footprint. As an attractive, more affordable alternative to much of the higher-priced new multifamily supply being delivered as well as the available single-family housing options, our residents are choosing to stay with us longer with only 11.5% of our move-outs occurring due to residents buying a home. Our customer service is reflected in our Google scores, which continues to lead the sector, supports our strong renewals and record low turnover rate. With our 60-day exposure, which represents all current vacancies and notices over the next 60 days, 30 basis points better than last year and new deliveries poised to decline, our communities are well positioned for the seasonally slower months and for what we believe will be a stronger leasing environment in the spring and summer of 2025.

謝謝你，艾瑞克，大家早安。MAA 的長期策略是專注於高成長市場並在這些市場內實現多元化，這使我們的投資組合能夠從我們足跡中持續強勁的需求中受益。作為一種有吸引力的、更實惠的替代方案，替代了許多正在交付的高價新多戶住宅供應以及現有的單戶住房選擇，我們的居民選擇在我們這裡居住更長時間，只有11.5%的搬出發生在由於給買房的居民。我們的客戶服務反映在我們的 Google 分數中，該分數繼續領先該行業，支持我們強勁的續訂和創紀錄的低週轉率。我們的60 天風險敞口（代表未來60 天內的所有當前空缺和通知）比去年好30 個基點，而且新交付量預計將下降，我們的社區已做好準備應對季節性較慢的月份，並且我們相信， 2025年春夏租賃環境更加強勁。

Throughout this year, we've continued to make progress using our balance sheet capacity to support future earnings growth. In the third quarter, we added two new projects to our under-construction development pipeline, bringing our total under-construction developments to eight projects, representing 2,762 units at a cost of approximately $978 million, a record level of development for MAA. In addition to the previously disclosed 239-unit Charlotte project, where we provided financing to take out the equity partner on an under-construction community, we also closed and started construction on a 306-unit community in Richmond, Virginia in the third quarter. The Richmond project was a fully entitled shovel-ready development that we took over from a developer who was unable to obtain financing. The Charlotte project should deliver first units in the third quarter of 2025, and we expect the Richmond project to deliver first units in first quarter of 2027.

今年全年，我們利用資產負債表能力繼續取得進展，以支持未來的獲利成長。第三季度，我們在建開發案中增加了兩個新項目，使在建開發案總數達到 8 個，共 2,762 個單元，成本約為 9.78 億美元，創下了 MAA 的開發水準。除了先前揭露的擁有239 個單元的夏洛特計畫（我們為在建社區的股權合作夥伴提供融資）外，我們還在第三季度關閉並開始了弗吉尼亞州里士滿一個擁有306 個單元的社區的建設。里士滿項目是一個完全有權動工的開發項目，我們從一個無法獲得融資的開發商手中接手。夏洛特專案應於 2025 年第三季交付首批單位，我們預計里士滿專案將於 2027 年第一季交付首批單位。

We expect to start construction on one more project during the fourth quarter, bringing our total development starts for the year to five at a cost of $508 million, exceeding our original guidance for the year. We expect these projects to deliver an average expected stabilized NOI yield of 6.3%. With our development pipeline approaching $1 billion, our focus turns to maintaining our pipeline at this level going forward. Predevelopment work continues on a number of projects in our pipeline, which now includes 10 projects representing future growth of over 2,800 units at an expected cost of $1.1 billion. We have seen some construction cost declines in a few markets and remain hopeful that as the total under-construction pipeline in our markets continues its steep decline, we could see further improvement in construction costs and schedules as well as we get into 2025, supporting our ability to start construction on additional opportunities at compelling yields.

我們預計第四季度將再開工一個項目，使今年開工項目總數達到 5 個，耗資 5.08 億美元，超出我們今年的最初指導。我們預計這些項目將實現 6.3% 的平均預期穩定 NOI 收益率。隨著我們的開發管道接近 10 億美元，我們的重點轉向未來將我們的管道維持在這一水平。我們的一系列項目的預開發工作仍在繼續，目前包括 10 個項目，代表未來將增加 2,800 多個單元，預計成本為 11 億美元。我們已經看到一些市場的建築成本有所下降，並且仍然希望，隨著我們市場的在建管道總數繼續急劇下降，我們可能會看到建築成本和進度的進一步改善以及進入2025 年，從而支持我們的有能力以令人信服的收益開始建立更多機會。

In the transaction market, volume remains relatively low with cap rates trending down into the high 4% range. Our team continues to find select but compelling acquisition opportunities at pricing the market cap rates, generally in lease-up and often on an off-market basis. In the third quarter, we closed on a 310-unit suburban property in Orlando for approximately $84 million, approximately 10% below replacement costs. This newly constructed property is nearly stabilized at just under 90% occupancy. Subsequent to quarter end, we closed on a 386-unit mid-rise property in the Knox-Henderson area of Dallas at pricing 15% below current replacement costs.

在交易市場，交易量仍然相對較低，資本化率趨於下降至 4% 的高點區間。我們的團隊繼續尋找精選但引人注目的收購機會來定價市值，通常以租賃方式且通常在場外進行。第三季度，我們以約 8,400 萬美元的價格關閉了奧蘭多一處擁有 310 個單位的郊區房產，比重置成本低約 10%。該新建物業的入住率幾乎穩定在略低於 90%。季度末後，我們以比目前重置成本低 15% 的價格收購了達拉斯諾克斯-亨德森地區一處擁有 386 套公寓的中層房產。

This property just wrapped up construction and is in its initial lease-up. This brings our total acquisition volume for the year to just over $270 million at an average stabilized NOI yield of 5.9%. Our team is actively evaluating other acquisition opportunities, and we are hopeful we'll close another compelling acquisition before year-end. Subsequent to quarter end, we sold a 216-unit property in Charlotte, North Carolina for $39 million, and we have an additional property in Richmond, Virginia under contract to sell with an expected closing during the fourth quarter. We have two more properties in Columbia, South Carolina on the market with a likely closing in early 2025.

該房產剛剛完成建設，並處於初始租賃狀態。這使得我們今年的總收購額略高於 2.7 億美元，平均穩定 NOI 收益率為 5.9%。我們的團隊正在積極評估其他收購機會，我們希望在年底前完成另一項引人注目的收購。季度末後，我們以3,900 萬美元的價格出售了位於北卡羅來納州夏洛特的一處擁有216 個單位的房產，並且根據合同，我們在弗吉尼亞州里士滿還有一處房產將出售，預計將於第四季成交。我們在南卡羅來納州哥倫比亞市還有兩處房產在售，可能在 2025 年初交屋。

Before I turn the call over to Tim, I want to echo Eric's comments to our associates. Thank you for your hard work and dedication during this busy third quarter. With that, I'll turn it over to Tim.

在將電話轉給蒂姆之前，我想向我們的同事重複埃里克的評論。感謝您在繁忙的第三季度的辛勤工作和奉獻。有了這個，我會把它交給提姆。

Thanks, Brad, and good morning, everyone. As noted by both Eric and Brad, various demand metrics we track remain strong, partially mitigating the impact of new supply deliveries that we believe peaked in the third quarter. 60-day exposure is better than at any point over the last five years. The seasonal deceleration of new lease pricing is less than the prior year and pre-COVID periods, and absorption remains strong. However, pricing growth, particularly on new leases, continued to be impacted by elevated new supply deliveries, but as noted, showed less seasonal deceleration than we typically see this time of the year.

謝謝布拉德，大家早安。正如艾瑞克和布拉德所指出的，我們追蹤的各種需求指標仍然強勁，部分減輕了我們認為在第三季達到頂峰的新供應交付的影響。 60 天的暴露程度比過去五年的任何時候都要好。新租賃定價的季節性減速幅度小於上一年和新冠肺炎疫情之前的時期，且吸收量仍然強勁。然而，價格增長，特別是新租賃的價格增長，繼續受到新供應交付量增加的影響，但正如所指出的，季節性減速幅度小於我們通常在一年中這個時候看到的情況。

For the third quarter, new lease pricing on a lease-over-lease basis was minus 5.4%, just a 30-basis-point decline from the second quarter compared to a 270 basis point decline over the same period last year. In fact, 10 of our top 15 highest concentration markets showed new lease-over-lease growth acceleration from the second to third quarter. Renewal rates for the quarter stayed strong, growing (inaudible) on a lease-over-lease basis. These two components resulted in lease and re-lease pricing on a blended basis of minus 0.2%, also a 30 basis point decline from the second quarter and compared to a 220 basis point decline over the same period last year. Average physical occupancy was 95.7%, up 20 basis points from the second quarter, demonstrating the strong absorption in our markets.

第三季度，基於租賃的新租賃定價為-5.4%，僅比第二季度下降了30個基點，而去年同期則下降了270個基點。事實上，從第二季到第三季度，我們前 15 個最集中的市場中有 10 個出現了新的租賃成長加速。本季的續租率保持強勁，在租賃基礎上不斷增長（聽不清楚）。這兩個組成部分導致租賃和再租賃定價混合後下降-0.2%，也比第二季度下降了 30 個基點，而去年同期則下降了 220 個基點。平均實體入住率為 95.7%，較第二季上升 20 個基點，顯示我們市場的強勁吸收。

Collections continue to outperform expectations with net delinquency representing just 0.4% of billed rents. All these factors drove the resulting same-store revenue that was in line with the third quarter of 2023. Along with the demand metrics noted, our unique market diversification strategy that Brad mentioned, continues to benefit overall portfolio results. As we have mentioned previously, several of our mid-tier markets are holding up better in this higher supply environment. Savannah, Richmond, Charleston, Greenville, and our Fredericksburg and our other Northern Virginia properties are all outperforming the broader portfolio from a blended lease-over-lease pricing standpoint.

收款繼續超出預期，淨拖欠率僅佔帳單租金的 0.4%。所有這些因素推動同店營收與 2023 年第三季持平。除了指出的需求指標外，布拉德提到的我們獨特的市場多元化策略繼續有利於整體投資組合結果。正如我們之前提到的，我們的幾個中層市場在這種較高的供應環境中表現得更好。從混合租賃定價的角度來看，薩凡納、里士滿、查爾斯頓、格林維爾以及我們的弗雷德里克斯堡和其他北維吉尼亞物業的表現均優於更廣泛的投資組合。

Particularly in a down cycle, our portfolio balance between large and mid-tier markets helped strengthen overall portfolio performance. Also, as has been the case all year, Austin, Atlanta, and Jacksonville are markets that continue to be more negatively impacted by the absolute level of supply being delivered into those markets with Austin being the toughest challenge of all the markets. We continue to execute on our various redevelopment and repositioning initiatives where it makes sense in this elevated supply environment, with the expectation of starting to reaccelerate next year. For the third quarter of 2024, we completed over 1,700 interior unit upgrades, achieving rate increases of $108 above non-upgraded units. We're encouraged by the strength of this program in this competitive environment, demonstrated by the fact that these units lease quicker on average than a non-renovated unit when adjusted for the additional turn time.

特別是在下行週期中，我們在大中型市場之間的投資組合平衡有助於增強整體投資組合表現。此外，與全年的情況一樣，奧斯汀、亞特蘭大和傑克遜維爾市場繼續受到這些市場供應絕對水準的負面影響，其中奧斯汀是所有市場中最嚴峻的挑戰。我們將繼續執行各種在供應環境改善的情況下有意義的重建和重新定位舉措，預計明年將開始重新加速。2024 年第三季度，我們完成了 1,700 多項室內單元升級，與未升級單元相比，價格上漲了 108 美元。我們對該計劃在競爭激烈的環境中的優勢感到鼓舞，事實證明，在根據額外的周轉時間進行調整後，這些單位的平均租賃速度比未翻新的單位更快。

For our repositioning program, we have two active projects that are in the repricing phase with NOI yields approaching 10%. We have an additional six projects underway with a plan to complete construction and begin repricing in the spring of 2025 in what we believe will be an improving leasing environment. As we wrap up October, we are seeing normal seasonal moderation but are encouraged by demand that should continue to keep the sequential seasonal pricing deceleration better than historical trends. Our 60-day exposure of 6.3% should serve to keep occupancy stable and allow for more pricing power than last year as we also start to lap new lease pricing that weakened significantly during the fourth quarter of last year. Absorption remains strong in our markets with the third quarter representing the first time since the first quarter of 2022 that units absorbed exceeded units delivered.

對於我們的重新定位計劃，我們有兩個處於重新定價階段的活躍項目，NOI 收益率接近 10%。我們還有另外 6 個項目正在進行中，計劃於 2025 年春季完成建設並開始重新定價，我們相信這將改善租賃環境。隨著 10 月的結束，我們看到了正常的季節性放緩，但受到需求的鼓舞，需求應該會繼續使季節性價格減速比歷史趨勢更好。我們的 60 天暴露率為 6.3%，應該有助於保持入住率穩定，並比去年擁有更大的定價能力，因為我們也開始採用去年第四季大幅疲軟的新租賃定價。我們市場的吸收量仍然強勁，第三季是自 2022 年第一季以來吸收量首次超過交付量。

Therefore, there's not a significant backlog of inventory needing to be absorbed. Accordingly, October new lease pricing is within 10 basis points of September new lease pricing, demonstrating this demand and our expectation of less seasonal moderation in the fourth quarter than we normally experience. Furthermore, lease-over-lease rates on accepted renewals for November and December are in the 4.25% range. And we will only reprice approximately 16% of our leases in the fourth quarter, which minimizes the impact of this moderation of the portfolio. As we have discussed over the last few quarters, new supply deliveries continue to be a headwind in many of our markets.

因此，沒有大量積壓的庫存需要消化。因此，10 月的新租賃定價與 9 月的新租賃定價相差 10 個基點以內，這表明了這種需求以及我們對第四季度季節性放緩程度低於我們通常經歷的預期。此外，11 月和 12 月已接受續租的租賃利率在 4.25% 範圍內。我們只會在第四季度對約 16% 的租賃重新定價，從而最大限度地減少投資組合調整的影響。正如我們在過去幾個季度所討論的那樣，新的供應交付仍然是我們許多市場的阻力。

However, we still believe the near-term outlook is in line with what we have discussed the last few quarters. That is, we expect this new supply will begin to moderate and that we have likely already seen the maximum impact to new lease-over-lease pricing growth, and that the supply-demand balance continues to improve from here, subject to normal seasonality. At a portfolio level, construction starts in our footprint peaked in mid-2022. And we have seen historically that the maximum pressure on leasing is typically about two years after construction starts. That's all I have in the way of prepared comments.

然而，我們仍然認為近期前景與我們過去幾季討論的情況一致。也就是說，我們預計新供應將開始放緩，我們可能已經看到對新租賃定價成長的最大影響，並且受正常季節性影響，供需平衡從這裡繼續改善。在投資組合層面，我們足跡的開工量在 2022 年中期達到高峰。我們從歷史上看到，租賃的最大壓力通常是在施工開始後兩年左右。這就是我所準備的評論。

I'll now turn the call over to Clay.

我現在將把電話轉給克萊。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. We reported core FFO for the quarter of $2.21 per share, which was $0.05 per share above the midpoint of our third quarter guidance. Just under $0.03 of the favorability was related to favorable same-store expenses, with an additional $0.02 driven by a combination of favorable overhead cost, interest expense and nonoperating income. Our same-store revenue results for the quarter were relatively in line with expectations. As Tim mentioned, same-store revenues benefited from strong occupancy during the quarter.

謝謝蒂姆，大家早安。我們報告本季核心 FFO 為每股 2.21 美元，比我們第三季指引的中點高出每股 0.05 美元。略低於 0.03 美元的優惠與有利的同店費用有關，另外 0.02 美元的優惠是由有利的管理成本、利息支出和營業外收入共同推動的。我們本季的同店營收結果相對符合預期。正如蒂姆所提到的，同店收入受益於本季的強勁入住率。

Our same-store expense performance, particularly real estate taxes, was favorable compared to our guidance for the quarter. We received property valuations for our portfolio, which were lower than our expectations. Repairs and maintenance costs continue to show moderation, growing at 2% compared to third quarter last year. During the quarter, we funded nearly $167 million of development cost of the current $978 million pipeline, leaving an expected $368 million to be funded on this pipeline over the next two to three years. We also invested approximately $13 million of capital through our redevelopment and repositioning programs during the quarter, which we expect to produce solid returns and continue to enhance the quality of our portfolio.

與我們本季的指導相比，我們的同店費用表現，尤其是房地產稅，是有利的。我們收到的投資組合的房地產估值低於我們的預期。維修和保養成本持續放緩，與去年第三季相比成長了 2%。在本季度，我們為目前 9.78 億美元的管道提供了近 1.67 億美元的開發成本，預計未來兩到三年內將為該管道提供 3.68 億美元的資金。本季我們也透過重建和重新定位計畫投資了約 1,300 萬美元的資本，我們預計這些計畫將產生可觀的回報並繼續提高我們投資組合的品質。

Our balance sheet remains solid. We ended the quarter with just over $800 million in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, providing significant opportunity to fund future investments. Our leverage remains low with net debt-to-EBITDA at 3.9x, and at quarter end, our outstanding debt was approximately 90% fixed with an average maturity of seven years at an effective rate of 3.8%. Finally, we are reaffirming the midpoint of our same-store NOI and core FFO guidance for the year, while revising other areas of our detailed guidance that we've previously provided. Given our operating results achieved through the third quarter, we are slightly adjusting the midpoint of effective rent growth guidance by 15 basis points to 0.35% and revising total same-store revenue guidance for the year to 0.5% at the midpoint.

我們的資產負債表依然穩健。截至本季末，我們的循環信貸額度下的現金和借款能力合計略高於 8 億美元，為未來投資提供了重要的融資機會。我們的槓桿率仍然很低，淨債務與 EBITDA 比率為 3.9 倍，截至季度末，我們的未償債務約為 90%，平均期限為 7 年，有效利率為 3.8%。最後，我們重申今年同店 NOI 和核心 FFO 指導的中點，同時修訂我們先前提供的詳細指導的其他領域。鑑於我們第三季取得的經營業績，我們將有效租金成長指引中位數小幅調整 15 個基點至 0.35%，並將全年同店總收入指引中位數修改至 0.5%。

With property valuations for our Florida portfolio now known, we have more insight into our overall real estate tax expense for 2024 and are lowering the midpoint of our guidance to 2%. This results in the lowering of our property operating expense growth projections for the year to 3.75% at the midpoint. The changes to our property operating expense projections, combined with our updated same-store revenue expectations, results in reaffirming our original midpoint expectation for same-store NOI at minus 1.3%. In addition to updating our same-store operating projections, we are revising our 2024 guidance to reflect favorable trends in G&A and interest expense.

隨著我們佛羅裡達州投資組合的房地產估值現已已知，我們對 2024 年整體房地產稅支出有了更深入的了解，並將我們的指導中位數降低至 2%。這導致我們將今年的房地產營運費用成長預測中位數下調至 3.75%。我們對物業營運費用預測的變化，加上我們更新的同店收入預期，重申了我們最初對同店 NOI 的中位數預期為 -1.3%。除了更新我們的同店經營預測外，我們還在修訂 2024 年指導，以反映一般管理費用和利息支出的有利趨勢。

These adjustments, combined with the $0.02 to $0.03 of estimated impact of cleanup costs related to storms in the fourth quarter resulted in us maintaining the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance at $8.88 per share while narrowing the range to $8.80 to $8.96 per share. Including the fourth quarter, we estimate our 2024 results will include approximately $0.08 to $0.09 of total storm cleanup costs compared to $0.01 of cost included in our initial 2024 guidance.

這些調整，加上第四季度與風暴相關的清理成本的估計影響為0.02 美元至0.03 美元，導致我們將全年核心FFO 指導中位數維持在每股8.88 美元，同時將範圍縮小至每股8.80 美元至8.96 美元。包括第四季度在內，我們估計 2024 年的業績將包括約 0.08 至 0.09 美元的風暴清理總成本，而我們最初的 2024 年指引中包含的成本為 0.01 美元。

That is all that we have in the way of prepared comments, so Julianne, we will now turn the call back to you for questions.

這就是我們準備好的評論的全部內容，所以朱麗安，我們現在將把電話轉回給您詢問問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

傑米·費爾德曼，富國銀行。

I guess just to start, can you talk about your 4Q expectations for blended rent growth and occupancy? You may have run through them, but I think it went kind of quickly, I don't know that I got it all. But I guess just trying to figure out if you think about year-end occupancy. You sounded pretty positive on demand and on renewals. So just what are you thinking at year-end and how 4Q looks for occupancy and blends?

我想首先，您能談談您對第四季綜合租金成長和入住率的預期嗎？你可能已經瀏覽過它們，但我認為它進行得很快，我不知道我是否掌握了全部。但我想只是想弄清楚你是否考慮年終入住率。您在需求和續約方面聽起來相當積極。那麼，您在年底時有何想法？

Yes, Jamie, this is Tim. Yes, I think in terms of occupancy, pretty consistent with where we are right now. We're 95.4% currently, I think 95.4%, 95.5% for Q4 is a range we're comfortable with, particularly with where we see exposure right now. As I mentioned in my comments, the renewal rates that we're getting for November and December are in the 4.25% range, so call it, 4% to 4.5% for the fourth quarter in terms of renewals. And then on new lease pricing, we mentioned the new lease prices for October moderated only about 10 basis points from September.

是的，傑米，這是提姆。是的，我認為就入住率而言，與我們現在的情況非常一致。我們目前是 95.4%，我認為 95.4%，第四季的 95.5% 是我們滿意的範圍，特別是我們現在看到的風險敞口。正如我在評論中提到的，我們 11 月和 12 月的續訂率在 4.25% 範圍內，所以就續訂而言，第四季的續訂率為 4% 至 4.5%。然後在新租賃定價方面，我們提到 10 月的新租賃價格僅比 9 月下降了約 10 個基點。

It was 6.9% in September, 7% in October. I think you see a little bit of moderation from here but not much and see less deceleration than we typically view as we commented in the call.

9月為6.9%，10月為7%。我認為你從這裡看到了一點緩和，但不多，而且看到的減速比我們在電話中評論的通常看到的要少。

Okay. And then I mean, guidance, full year guidance now seem conservative when you first gave it. As we think about '25, I mean, is there still a lot of juice to get on the expense side that could help you with efficiencies or anything else? Or do you think you'd get back to more of a normalized growth rate?

好的。然後我的意思是，當你第一次給予指導時，全年指導現在看起來很保守。當我們考慮 25 世紀時，我的意思是，在費用方面是否還有很多可以幫助您提高效率或其他方面的好處？或者您認為您會恢復到正常化的成長率嗎？

Yes. I think just kind of thinking through the expense structure, I mean, starting with real estate tax expenses and insurance. I mean, the growth that we've seen in real estate tax expenses of 2%, I believe that will be a little tough to repeat that level next year. I would think that, that would get to more of a normalized growth rate, call it, somewhere between 3% and 4%. But I believe that, that would be appropriate for real estate taxes.

是的。我認為只是思考費用結構，我的意思是，從房地產稅費用和保險開始。我的意思是，我們看到房地產稅支出增加了 2%，我相信明年要重複這個水平會有點困難。我認為，這將達到更多的正常化成長率，即 3% 到 4% 之間。但我相信，這對房地產稅來說是合適的。

Insurance, we had the slight decrease in our premium renewal this past July. And so look at that for the first half of next year. And then we'll have to reprice in July of next year. Hard to say at this point where that's going to ultimately end up. I don't think it gets back to the levels of increases that we saw over the past couple of years, but also don't think it's going to be flat either.

保險方面，去年七月我們的保費續保略為下降。所以看看明年上半年的狀況。然後我們必須在明年七月重新定價。目前很難說這最終會怎樣。我認為它不會回到過去幾年的成長水平，但也不認為它會持平。

So somewhere in the 5% to 10% range, keeping in mind that insurance is just a small piece of our overall expense debt. And in regards to personnel costs, I think that, that continues to moderate a little bit. And as we get some of these inflationary impacts (inaudible) similar things for repair and maintenance. We've talked about some of the moderation we've seen this past year in repair and maintenance. I don't know that we'll be back at that level in 2025.

因此，在 5% 到 10% 的範圍內，請記住，保險只是我們整體費用債務的一小部分。就人員成本而言，我認為，這種情況繼續有所緩和。當我們得到一些通貨膨脹影響（聽不清楚）時，類似的事情也需要維修和維護。我們已經討論了去年在維修和維護方面看到的一些節制措施。我不知道 2025 年我們會回到那個水平。

But I think it will also be more of a reasonable growth rate, something around 3% to 3.5%. Marketing expenses, I think, would be the other 1 to call out that continue to may run a little high in the first half of the year, but I would expect that to come back down as we comp some of these increases that we've seen this past year.

但我認為這也將是一個更合理的成長率，大約在 3% 到 3.5% 左右。我認為，行銷費用將是另一項需要指出的費用，今年上半年可能會繼續保持在較高水平，但我預計，隨著我們對部分增長進行補償，這一費用將會回落。的。

Josh Dennerlein, Bank of America.

喬許‧丹納林，美國銀行。

Just kind of curious, is there any way to kind of quantify like the impact of like the deliveries on that new lease rate growth? Like are there any good examples of markets where you didn't really have supply pressure and maybe just how the new lease rate growth trended in those markets versus more supply-heavy markets?

只是有點好奇，有沒有什麼方法可以量化交付量對新租賃率成長的影響？是否有任何真正沒有供應壓力的市場的好例子？

Yes. I mean, there are a couple of markets. Austin, as we've talked about all year, continues to be our most challenging market, and we saw new lease rates in Austin pick up in a negative way quite a bit from Q2 to Q3. We saw a little bit in Raleigh, but I think the point as far as Q3 is concerned, it was pretty targeted to a couple of markets. I made the comment in the prepared comments that out of our 15 highest concentration markets, we actually saw 10 of those 15 new lease rates accelerate.

是的。我的意思是，有幾個市場。正如我們全年討論的那樣，奧斯汀仍然是我們最具挑戰性的市場，我們看到奧斯汀的新租賃率從第二季到第三季出現了相當大的負成長。我們在羅利看到了一些，但我認為就第三季而言，它非常針對幾個市場。我在準備好的評論中指出，在我們 15 個最集中的市場中，我們實際上看到這 15 個新租賃率中有 10 個正在加速。

And so actually, if you pull out -- if you focus on just Austin and pull that -- pull the new lease rates in Austin out of both the Q2 and Q3 numbers, we actually would have seen new lease rate from Q2 to Q3 accelerate about 10 basis points as opposed to a 30 basis point decline. So certainly, Austin was a big driver. Atlanta continues to be a struggle. But obviously, we feel really good about Austin long term and it's just working through a lot of supply, but it did have an outsized impact on what we saw with new lease rates.

所以實際上，如果你退出- 如果你只關注奧斯汀並拉動- 將奧斯汀的新租賃率從第二季度和第三季度的數據中拉出來，我們實際上會看到從第二季度到第三季度的新租賃率加速下降約 10 個基點，而不是下降 30 個基點。可以肯定的是，奧斯汀是一位重要的推動者。亞特蘭大仍然是一場鬥爭。但顯然，從長遠來看，我們對奧斯汀的感覺非常好，它只是在解決大量供應問題，但它確實對我們看到的新租賃率產生了巨大影響。

Okay, interesting. And then in those higher supply markets, were those also skewing renewal rates down as well because -- do you have like a similar stat for renewal if you like strip out Austin or the high-supply markets?

好吧，有趣。然後，在那些供應量較高的市場中，這些是否也會導致續訂率下降，因為——如果您想剔除奧斯汀或高供應市場，您是否有類似的續訂統計數據？

Yes. I mean, it impacts renewal to some extent. If you think about for the third quarter renewals, we're somewhere in the 4% range, 4.1%. Austin was 1.5% to give you some perspective on that. So it does tend to impact renewal rates a little bit, but we certainly see much stronger renewal spreads than we do even for some of those more challenging markets.

是的。我的意思是，它在某種程度上影響了更新。如果你考慮第三季的續訂，我們的成長率在 4% 的範圍內，即 4.1%。奧斯汀的支持率為 1.5%，讓您對此有一些看法。因此，它確實會對續訂率產生一點影響，但我們當然會看到續訂價差比一些更具挑戰性的市場要強得多。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

尼克尤利科，豐業銀行。

It's Dan Tricarico on with Nick. I wanted to clarify how you're thinking about this peaking of supply ultimately impacting market rent growth next year. I'm obviously not talking guidance, but there's obviously still a lot of units to absorb. So just curious how you'd see that relative change in supply impacting the seasonal curve in market rents in those higher supply markets.

這是丹·特里卡里科和尼克的節目。我想澄清一下您如何看待供應高峰最終影響明年市場租金成長的問題。我顯然不是在談論指導，但顯然還有很多單位需要吸收。所以只是好奇你會如何看待供應的相對變化影響那些供應較高的市場中市場租金的季節性曲線。

Yes. I mean, as we've talked about, supply definitely peaked sort of the mid to second, third quarter of 2022 and that's pretty consistent across all our markets. Some of them lagged or we're ahead of that maybe a quarter or so but pretty consistent. So -- and as we talked about, we think about two years from start is when we see the maximum amount of pressure, which is kind of about right now and what we saw in Q3. I think we'll see a little bit of moderating pressure in Q4 won't necessarily show up with seasonal moderation and just less traffic, less leases expiring.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們所討論的，供應量肯定會在 2022 年第二、第三季度中達到峰值，而且這在我們所有市場上都非常一致。其中一些落後了，或者我們領先了大約四分之一，但相當一致。因此，正如我們所討論的，我們認為從一開始的兩年就是我們看到最大壓力的時候，這與現在和我們在第三季度看到的情況差不多。我認為我們會在第四季度看到一點緩和壓力，但不一定會出現季節性緩和，只是流量減少，租約到期減少。

So I think as we get into the spring and summer, I would expect we'll see normal seasonality just like we would any other period but start to see some strength particularly on the new lease side as demand picks up seasonally and as the impact of the moderating supply, which we think, in general, supply is probably down 20% or so in 2025 as compared to 2024. So we should start to see that strength as we get into the spring.

因此，我認為，當我們進入春季和夏季時，我預計我們會像任何其他時期一樣看到正常的季節性，但隨著需求季節性回升以及受供應量放緩，我們認為總體而言，2025年供應量可能比2024 年下降20% 左右。因此，當我們進入春天時，我們應該開始看到這種力量。

That's great. And then can you just quantify what you'd expect the loss to lease and revenue earn-in to be at the end of the year?

那太棒了。然後，您能否量化您預計年底的租賃損失和收入收益？

Yes. I think in terms of earn-in, if you think about our blended lease-over-lease expectations for full year of 2024, it's somewhere in that negative 3% range and half of that, if not a little more carries over into 2025, which kind of drives the earn-in. So slightly negative, call it, 20, 30 basis points, somewhere in that range of where we sit right now in terms of earn-in.

是的。我認為就收益而言，如果你考慮我們對 2024 年全年的混合租賃預期，你會發現它處於負 3% 的範圍內，其中一半（如果不是多一點的話）會結轉到 2025 年，哪種方式可以推動獲利。因此，略微負面，稱之為 20、30 個基點，就盈利而言，處於我們目前所處的範圍內。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

麥可‧戈德史密斯，瑞銀集團。

Absorption was clearly a positive in the quarter. Do you assume that elevated absorption levels continue through the remainder of the year, level of demand is baked into guidance? And have you seen traffic or conversion levels move or change as we go into the slower leasing season?

本季的吸收顯然是正面的。您是否認為吸收水準的提高將持續到今年剩餘時間，需求水準是否已納入指導？隨著租賃季節的放緩，您是否看到流量或轉換程度發生了變化？

I'm not sure I'd call all of that but I know you were asking about absorption initially. I mean, yes, we don't see any reason for absorption to go backwards. I mean, if you look at absorption so far this year, Q1 was a record high for any first quarter since we've been tracking it. Q2 was the highest absorption since early 2021. And Q3, as I mentioned, saw us actually absorb more units than were delivered for the first time since Q1 of 2022.

我不確定我是否會稱呼所有這些，但我知道您最初是在問吸收。我的意思是，是的，我們沒有看到任何理由讓吸收倒退。我的意思是，如果你看看今年迄今為止的吸收量，第一季是我們一直追蹤以來第一季的歷史新高。第二季的吸收量是 2021 年初以來的最高水準。正如我所提到的，第三季我們吸收的單位數量實際上比 2022 年第一季以來交付的單位數量首次多。

So we don't see anything on the demand side that's moderating. I mean, you think about job growth, household formation, population growth, move-outs to buy a home, we expect turnover to continue to stay low. So I think demand will hold up strong and as supply starts to moderate, which we think it will, I would expect absorption to be as good, if not better, as we look into 2025.

因此，我們沒有看到需求方面出現任何放緩。我的意思是，考慮到就業成長、家庭形成、人口成長、搬出買房，我們預計營業額將繼續維持在較低水準。因此，我認為需求將保持強勁，隨著供應開始放緩（我們認為會如此），我預計吸收量將與我們展望 2025 年一樣好，甚至更好。

Got it. And as a follow-up and I'll try to streamline better, but just how are concession levels trending from merchant developer lease-up properties? Are you offering any concession at stabilized properties? And maybe just can you frame the price differential, if there is any, between the typical MAA property and the new developments?

知道了。作為後續行動，我將嘗試更好地簡化，但商業開發商租賃物業的優惠水平趨勢如何？你們是否對穩定的房產提供任何優惠？也許您可以列出典型的 MAA 房產和新開發案之間的價格差異（如果有的話）？

Yes. I mean, broadly, concessions in Q3 were pretty consistent with Q2. I mean, it's pretty standard in a lot of markets that you're seeing in a stabilized submarket, half-a-month to a month, something like that. Now we are seeing in lease-up areas a little more than that, and it's the markets I mentioned, particularly Austin and Atlanta. In Austin, you're seeing up to three months when you think about Central Austin and Round Rock-Georgetown area and then particularly in Midtown Atlanta seeing up to three months.

是的。我的意思是，總的來說，第三季的讓步與第二季非常一致。我的意思是，在許多穩定的子市場中，這是相當標準的，半個月到一個月，類似的事情。現在我們在租賃地區看到的情況遠不止於此，這就是我提到的市場，特別是奧斯汀和亞特蘭大。在奧斯汀，當您考慮奧斯汀中部和朗德羅克-喬治敦地區時，您會看到長達三個月的時間，特別是在亞特蘭大市中心，會出現長達三個月的時間。

So I'll call out those two kind of submarket markets as the highest concessionary environment, but pretty consistent with what it's been in most of our other markets. But we are still seeing, if we look at the new supply being delivered on aggregate, it's about anywhere from $250 to $300 higher price point than our average portfolio.

因此，我將這兩個子市場稱為最高優惠環境，但與我們大多數其他市場的情況非常一致。但我們仍然看到，如果我們從總體上看新供應量，就會發現它的價格比我們的平均投資組合高出 250 美元到 300 美元。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

Brad Heffern，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Obviously, leverage is still well below the long-term target, and it seems like you're seeing a lot of opportunities, both on the acquisition and development fronts. Does it make sense to grow at this point using mainly leverage to get metrics back into the target range? Or do you want to save that capacity for something bigger?

顯然，槓桿率仍然遠低於長期目標，而且您似乎在收購和開發方面都看到了許多機會。此時主要使用槓桿來使指標回到目標範圍內成長是否有意義？或者您想保留該容量以用於更大的事情嗎？

Yes. Right now, that's kind of where we're leaning into. I mean, when we look at our cost of equity versus our cost of debt, right now, we're actually trading at a slight discount. So we're going to probably lean more into the debt side versus the equity for the time being. But as things begin to change and we expect to get a little bit more benefit there on the equity side at some point, and we'd probably lean a little bit more in that direction when the time is right.

是的。現在，這就是我們所傾向的方向。我的意思是，當我們考慮股本成本與債務成本時，現在我們的交易價格實際上略有折扣。因此，與股權相比，我們暫時可能會更傾向於債務方面。但隨著情況開始發生變化，我們期望在某個時候在股權方面獲得更多的好處，並且在時機成熟時我們可能會更加傾向於這個方向。

Okay, got it. And then I think I heard you say 3% gain to lease earlier on the call, correct me if I'm wrong, but I would think that, that will weigh on new lease spreads in '25? I'm just curious, big picture, when you think we might see those actually turn positive.

好的，明白了。然後我想我聽到你早些時候在電話會議上說租賃收益為 3%，如果我錯了請糾正我，但我認為這會影響 25 年的新租賃利差？我只是好奇，從大局來看，當你認為我們可能會看到這些實際上變得積極時。

We didn't say 3%. I think our gain to lease right now, looking at -- if you look at where October rents or October leases compared to in-place rents, it's about 0.7 gain to lease, which is not too unusual this time of year with seasonal pricing starts to decelerate some seasonally, so it's not a big number for us right now. I think what we did talk about was just kind of the earn-in being slightly negative headed into 2025. And then I would expect we see better new lease pricing in 2025 as compared to what we saw in 2024.

我們沒有說3%。我認為我們現在的租賃收益，如果你看看 10 月份的租金或 10 月份的租賃與就地租金相比，租賃收益約為 0.7，這在每年的這個時候並不少見，因為季節性定價開始季節性減速，所以現在對我們來說並不是一個大數字。我認為我們所討論的只是到 2025 年盈利略有負值。然後我預計 2025 年我們會看到比 2024 年更好的新租賃定價。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Two questions here. First, just based on your responses to a lot of the other analysts, it sounds like, one, Atlanta and Austin are the only two markets of supply concern. And then, two, it sounds like your comments around strengthening '25 and being in a better leasing position is predicated on the current run rate of absorption, meaning like even though you expect absorption rates to improve, your comments around expectations of leasing for '25 aren't predicated on improving absorptions based on the current trend.

這裡有兩個問題。首先，根據您對許多其他分析師的回應，聽起來，第一，亞特蘭大和奧斯丁是唯一兩個值得關注的市場。然後，第二，聽起來你關於加強「25」和處於更好的租賃地位的評論是基於當前的吸收率，這意味著即使你預計吸收率會提高，你對「25」租賃預期的評論也是如此。

Yes. I would say your second point is right. I mean, we're -- we would expect to see consistent demand, certainly consistent, if not a little bit better absorption, but where we think and we'd like to see that play out is more on rates and more new lease rates as opposed to trying to get occupancy to 96% or 96.5%, something like that, we would prefer to focus on rates. To your first point, I mean, I wouldn't say that we're the only ones feeling supply pressure. Those are certainly feeling more supply pressure.

是的。我想說你的第二點是對的。我的意思是，我們希望看到持續的需求，當然是持續的，即使不是吸收得更好一點，但我們認為並希望看到更多的是利率和更多新的租賃利率與試圖將入住率提高到96% 或96.5% 之類的情況相反，我們更願意關注房價。對於你的第一點，我的意思是，我不會說我們是唯一感受到供應壓力的國家。這些人肯定感受到了更大的供應壓力。

I mean, most of our markets are getting more supply than what we would call a typical market, but holding up a little better, given where the supply is occurring relative to our markets and demand and all that. So we're certainly in a more elevated supply picture, but also in Atlanta are ones that stand out a little bit. But I think those start to get better next year as do most of our other markets.

我的意思是，我們大多數市場的供應量都比我們所說的典型市場多，但考慮到供應量相對於我們的市場和需求等的情況，情況會好一些。因此，我們的供應量肯定更高，但亞特蘭大的供應量也更為突出。但我認為這些明年會開始好轉，就像我們大多數其他市場一樣。

I think it's -- Alex, this is Eric. I think it's important to just recap what Tim said earlier is that of our 15 largest markets, 10 of those actually saw new lease-over-lease pricing improve in the third quarter as compared to the second quarter. And if you take just Austin out of the mix and just exclude Austin from our Q2 and Q3 performance trends on new lease pricing, our new lease pricing in Q3 would have been up 10 basis points from where it was in Q2. So Austin clearly is having an outsized impact on the portfolio right now. We feel great about that market long term.

我想是－－亞歷克斯，這是艾瑞克。我認為重要的是要回顧 Tim 之前所說的，在我們 15 個最大的市場中，其中 10 個市場實際上在第三季度看到了新的租賃定價比第二季度有所改善。如果您僅將奧斯汀排除在外，並將奧斯汀排除在我們第二季和第三季新租賃定價的表現趨勢之外，那麼我們第三季的新租賃定價將比第二季上漲 10 個基點。因此，奧斯汀現在顯然對投資組合產生了巨大的影響。從長遠來看，我們對該市場感覺很好。

But certainly in 2024, it's weighing on the performance of the portfolio as a whole, given just the absolute level of supply that came into that 1 market.

但考慮到進入該市場的絕對供應水平，到 2024 年，它肯定會影響整個投資組合的表現。

Okay. The second question just revolves around the hurricane. Obviously, some big storms. As you guys assess your portfolio because it's incredible, the REITs never really seem to have any major damage. Is it a matter of either, one, you guys really only buy properties or invest in properties that are away from rivers, are away from shore lines are elevated?

好的。第二個問題是圍繞颶風展開的。顯然，有一些大風暴。當你們評估自己的投資組合時，因為它令人難以置信，房地產投資信託基金似乎從未真正受到任何重大損害。這是一個問題，一，你們真的只購買或投資遠離河流、遠離海岸線的房產嗎？

Or is it some of the steps you're taking? Or why is it that we see some devastation, but then when the REITs report like you guys, the damage is minimum? Just trying to understand if that's active management on your part as far as how you select the properties and where geographically you're keeping or if there's something else that worked?

或者這是您正在採取的一些步驟？或者為什麼我們看到一些破壞，但當房地產投資信託基金像你們一樣報告時，損失卻是最小的？只是想了解一下，就您如何選擇房產以及您保留的地理位置而言，這是否是您的主動管理，或者是否有其他有效的方法？

It's Rob. I think it's really a combination of factors. I think part of it is the selection of the sites and what we're building. But ultimately, it's the ongoing repair and maintenance that we're spending on the properties, making sure that the roofs are relatively new, they're intact and the preparation we do before the storms come in really assist with minimizing our damage. So it really is only cleanup that we're stuck with and kind of some landscaping and other smaller things.

是羅布。我認為這確實是多種因素的結合。我認為其中一部分是選址和我們正在建造的項目。但歸根結底，我們對房產進行持續的維修和保養，確保屋頂相對較新、完好無損，並且我們在暴風雨來臨之前所做的準備工作確實有助於最大程度地減少我們的損失。因此，我們實際上只是進行清理工作，以及一些景觀美化和其他較小的事情。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾‧聖朱斯特，瑞穗。

Can you talk a bit about the transaction market and the opportunities coming across your desk? It seems like more sellers willing to engage with cap rates down to 5% and even sub-5% as you noted. So as you guys look at the opportunities coming across your desk, what are the key items or nonnegotiables you're seeking? Is it newer assets with operational upside as you talked about previously? And then maybe some color on the compelling, I think, was the word used, opportunities that you're looking at here potentially closing by year-end?

您能談談交易市場和您辦公桌上的機會嗎？正如您所指出的，似乎有更多賣家願意將上限利率降至 5%，甚至低於 5%。因此，當您審視辦公桌上的機會時，您正在尋求的關鍵項目或不容談判的內容是什麼？正如您之前提到的，它是具有營運優勢的新資產嗎？然後，我想，也許你在這裡看到的機會可能會在年底前結束，這個詞是否具有引人注目的色彩？

Is that a comment on the size, value creation, IRR potential? What's so compelling? Some color would be appreciated.

這是對規模、價值創造、IRR 潛力的評論嗎？到底是什麼如此引人注目？一些顏色將不勝感激。

Haendel, this is Brad. I mean, generally, relative to the compelling comment, that really is similar to what we're investing in today. And if you look at the stabilized NOI yields of the three acquisitions we've had this year at 5.9% relative to where current market cap rates are, those are pretty compelling returns, I would say. Really, what we're focused on and where we're finding our opportunities are on properties that are generally brand new. Most times they are just finishing up their initial lease-up, or -- excuse me, just finishing up construction and just entering in their initial lease-up.

亨德爾，這是布萊德。我的意思是，總的來說，相對於令人信服的評論，這確實與我們今天的投資相似。如果你看看我們今年三筆收購的穩定 NOI 收益率（相對於當前市值率為 5.9%），我想說，這些回報相當引人注目。事實上，我們關注的焦點以及我們尋找機會的地方通常都是全新的房產。大多數時候，他們剛完成最初的租賃，或者——對不起，剛完成施工並剛進入最初的租賃。

It's assets that are tougher for other folks to get financed. But given our ability to close all cash, we have some competitive advantage versus others in the market. There's also opportunities for us to put our operating platform on these assets to drive additional returns that many other folks can't do. Oftentimes, we're looking for properties that are in proximity to current assets that we have, where we're able to provide those properties and really generate additional returns. So those are kind of the competitive angles that we're looking for, where we're able to generate additional returns.

對其他人來說，這些資產更難獲得融資。但考慮到我們有能力結清所有現金，與市場上的其他公司相比，我們擁有一些競爭優勢。我們還有機會將我們的營運平台放在這些資產上，以帶來許多其他人無法做到的額外回報。通常，我們正在尋找與我們現有資產接近的房產，我們能夠提供這些房產並真正產生額外的回報。因此，這些就是我們正在尋找的競爭角度，我們能夠在其中產生額外的回報。

And then the last point I would just make is generally, a lot of what we're doing is off-market. We have extensive relationships in this region of the country exclusively operating for 30 years. About 80% of the $2 billion that we purchased over the last 10 years have been with merchant developers. So we have extensive relationships that we're able to lean on that allow us to -- the opportunity to execute at returns that often exceed what the market rates are.

我要說的最後一點是，我們所做的很多事情都是場外的。我們在該國該地區擁有廣泛的關係，獨家經營了 30 年。過去 10 年我們購買的 20 億美元中，大約 80% 都來自商業開發商。因此，我們擁有廣泛的關係，我們可以依靠這些關係，使我們有機會獲得往往超過市場利率的回報。

Got it. I appreciate that. And just going back to development pipeline for a moment now up to over $1 billion, I think you mentioned, and with a sizable opportunity beyond that with the shadow pipeline. I guess I'm curious how large could that development pipeline -- near term, how aggressive could you be, given the (inaudible) that you see into '26? And then maybe some color on (inaudible) likely to be started next?

知道了。我很欣賞這一點。我想你提到過，現在回到開發管道，目前已超過 10 億美元，而且除了影子管道之外，還有相當大的機會。我想我很好奇這個開發管道有多大——短期內，考慮到你對 26 年的看法（聽不清楚），你能有多正面？然後也許接下來可能會開始一些顏色（聽不清楚）？

And how you're thinking about underwriting the rent growth in those markets in the next couple of years?

您如何考慮在未來幾年內承擔這些市場的租金成長？

Yes. If I forget something in that question, please let me know. But yes, I mean, in terms of the size of the development pipeline, we've commented for a couple of years now really a desire to build that pipeline to $1 billion, $1.2 billion, total size. Today, we're just under $1 billion so we've got a little bit of room to grow that a little bit. That would equate to about three to four starts a year in over a three-year period, which is really the time line it takes for most of these projects that gets us to our $1 billion, $1.2 billion.

是的。如果我忘記了該問題中的某些內容，請告訴我。但是，是的，我的意思是，就開發管道的規模而言，我們已經評論了幾年，現在確實希望將該管道建設到總規模 10 億美元、12 億美元。如今，我們的市值略低於 10 億美元，因此我們還有一點成長空間。這相當於在三年多的時間裡每年啟動大約三到四次，這實際上是大多數專案所需的時間，讓我們達到 10 億、12 億美元的目標。

So that's really -- we're very comfortable, given the size of our balance sheet of really maintaining our pipeline at that level. And clearly, given what we think are going to be strong operating fundamentals in '26, '27, this is a great time for us to be ramping up that development pipeline to that $1 billion, $1.2 billion level. In terms of how we're underwriting these projects very conservatively, the developments that we have delivering today on average, even in this high supply environment, we're exceeding our underwritings on average by about 50 basis points. So we underwrite very conservatively. Very little trending in rents for the first few years.

所以，考慮到我們的資產負債表規模確實能夠將我們的管道維持在這個水平，我們真的感到非常放心。顯然，考慮到我們認為 26 年和 27 年將有強勁的營運基本面，現在是我們將開發通路擴大到 10 億美元、12 億美元水準的好時機。就我們如何非常保守地承保這些項目而言，我們今天交付的開發項目平均而言，即使在這種高供應環境下，我們平均也超出了我們的承保約 50 個基點。所以我們承保非常保守。最初幾年的租金趨勢非常小。

And typically, you get to year three, year four, you start trending a little bit more. We're trending our expenses the entire hold period. So that's generally how we underwrite our deals but on a very conservative basis.

通常，到了第三年、第四年，你就會開始變得更流行。我們正在分析整個持有期間的支出趨勢。因此，這通常是我們承保交易的方式，但非常保守。

Buck Horne, Raymond James.

巴克·霍恩，雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

I just wanted to follow up on that. Just thinking about the Richmond asset in terms of the start there. As you're rebuilding the development pipeline, thinking about new -- or your large markets versus mid-tier markets, would you expect to kind of restock and maybe look at more development opportunities in those mid-tier markets? And I'm kind of wondering what the differential in yields might be to do a development in a larger market versus a mid-tier market right now.

我只是想跟進此事。只是從那裡開始的角度考慮里士滿資產。當您正在重建開發通路時，請考慮新的市場——或者您的大型市場與中型市場的比較，您是否希望補充庫存，並可能在這些中型市場中尋找更多的開發機會？我有點想知道現在在更大的市場和中端市場進行開發的收益率可能會有什麼差異。

Buck, this is Brad. Yes, I mean, we definitely believe in our strategy of allocating capital between both large markets and these mid-tier markets. So we are very much committed to continuing to growing our presence and allocating capital both through acquisitions and development in some of these mid-tier markets. And really, it's been a function of just where the opportunities have come. So we haven't seen as many opportunities, given the lower level of supply in some of these mid-tier markets, but we are seeing some of those opportunities now.

巴克，這是布拉德。是的，我的意思是，我們絕對相信我們在大型市場和中型市場之間分配資本的策略。因此，我們非常致力於透過在其中一些中層市場的收購和開發來繼續擴大我們的影響力並配置資本。事實上，這取決於機會的出現。因此，考慮到其中一些中端市場的供應水平較低，我們還沒有看到那麼多機會，但我們現在看到了其中一些機會。

We acquired the Raleigh project earlier this year, the development here in Richmond. So you'll see us continue to have a focus in those mid-tier markets. I would say from a stabilized yield perspective, there's maybe 10, 20 basis points difference in today's rate. So Richmond's close to 6.5% and some of the other projects are maybe 6.25%, 6.3%. So there's not a big swing in terms of some of the yields for these projects.

我們今年稍早收購了羅利項目，即里士滿的開發項目。因此，您會看到我們繼續關注這些中端市場。我想說，從穩定收益率的角度來看，今天的利率可能有 10、20 個基點的差異。所以里士滿接近 6.5%，其他一些項目可能是 6.25%、6.3%。因此，這些項目的一些收益率並沒有出現大的波動。

But really, that is going to manifest itself maybe a little bit on IRRs where we're getting higher IRRs on the projects in the secondary markets as the exit cap rates may be a little bit different. But that's really the only difference in terms of the underwriting projects.

但實際上，這可能會在內部報酬率上有所體現，因為二級市場項目的內部報酬率可能會有所不同，因此我們會獲得更高的內部報酬率。但這確實是承保項目方面的唯一區別。

That's great, really helpful. Second question. With some of these new mandates coming out for return to office, I know it's maybe not as big in Sunbelt markets, but have you seen any changes or shifts recently in terms of traffic re-leasing patterns in urban locations versus suburban locations that might be affected by certain return-to-office policies?

這太棒了，真的很有幫助。第二個問題。隨著一些新的要求重返辦公室的要求出台，我知道它在陽光地帶市場可能沒有那麼大，但您最近是否看到城市地區與郊區地區的交通重新租賃模式方面有任何變化或轉變？些重返辦公室政策的影響嗎？

Mike, this is Tim. Nothing that we've seen at a material level. I mean, we did see -- we talked about performance between A and B assets in urban, suburban. We did see that narrow a little bit with our urban properties performing a little bit better. I'm not sure that's necessarily related to anything return to office, but we did see a little bit of performance there.

麥克，這是蒂姆。我們在物質層面上沒有看到任何東西。我的意思是，我們確實看到了——我們討論了 A 和 B 資產在城市、郊區的表現。我們確實看到，隨著我們的城市物業表現好一點，這一差距有所縮小。我不確定這是否與重返辦公室有必然關係，但我們確實看到了一些表現。

But broadly speaking, not seeing a lot of shift in any of the metrics that we track.

但從廣義上講，我們追蹤的任何指標都沒有看到很大的變化。

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

埃里克·沃爾夫，花旗銀行。

As you get ready to give guidance next year, I guess what will you be looking at over the next couple of months to determine your view on market rent growth or blended spreads for next year? I think you said new leases might be down like 7% or 8% in November and December. Does that even weigh into your view? Does it not really matter? Just wondering what we should be looking at to kind of understand what market rent growth should be like next year.

當您準備明年提供指導時，我想您在接下來的幾個月中會關注什麼，以確定您對明年市場租金增長或混合利差的看法？我想你說過 11 月和 12 月新租約可能會下降 7% 或 8% 左右。這對你有影響嗎？這真的不重要嗎？只是想知道我們應該關注什麼才能了解明年的市場租金成長。

Yes, this is Tim. I mean, I think new lease pricing is the key metric that we're looking at in terms of -- it's not going to -- what happens in the rest of this quarter is not going to be impactful necessarily to 2024, but it does have some impact to some extent on earn-in and where we start the year. Occupancy, we think, will be relatively stable, and so it's going to -- and we think renewals will continue to be stable. They've been in that 4% to 5% range all throughout this year. So we don't expect to see that change necessarily.

是的，這是蒂姆。我的意思是，我認為新的租賃定價是我們正在考慮的關鍵指標——它不會——本季度剩餘時間發生的事情不一定會對 2024 年產生影響，但它確實會產生影響在某種程度上對獲利和我們年初的位置有一定的影響。我們認為，入住率將相對穩定，因此，我們認為續訂量將繼續保持穩定。今年全年他們一直處於 4% 到 5% 的範圍內。因此，我們並不期望看到這種變化。

So it will come down to the new lease rates and sort of where those -- how those play out and then we'll have more to say as we get into Q4 earnings release. But certainly, sitting here today compared to where we were 12 months ago, I feel a lot better both in just macroeconomic variables. Recession risk is down. There's a little more certainty there. We know supply is starting to moderate, and so feel pretty good that sets up for a little bit better year.

因此，這將取決於新的租賃利率以及這些利率如何發揮作用，然後在我們進入第四季度收益發佈時我們將有更多的話要說。但當然，與 12 個月前相比，今天坐在這裡，我在宏觀經濟變數方面感覺好多了。經濟衰退風險下降。那裡有更多的確定性。我們知道供應開始放緩，因此感覺良好，為今年的好轉奠定了基礎。

I mean, it's still going to be elevated supply. And even in a quote-unquote normal environment, new lease rates in Q1 and Q4 are typically negative so we don't expect that necessarily to change. But we do expect to see a little more positive momentum in terms of new lease pricing when we get into Q2 and Q3.

我的意思是，供應量仍然會增加。即使在報價-非報價的正常環境下，第一季和第四季的新租賃利率通常為負，因此我們預計這種情況不一定會改變。但我們確實預計，進入第二季和第三季時，新租賃定價將出現更積極的勢頭。

Yes, the other thing that I'll add to that quickly on top of Tim's comment is that don't forget what Tim mentioned in that we intentionally only have about 16% of our leases expiring in the fourth quarter. And then you consider that roughly a good percentage of those are going to renew as a renewal transaction versus a new lease transaction. So the overall impact on earn-in from new lease performance between now and the end of the year is not as significant as you might think it is, given the low percentage of leases set to expire and the split between renewal and new lease pricing that will take place.

是的，除了蒂姆的評論之外，我要快速補充的另一件事是，不要忘記蒂姆在其中提到的，我們故意只讓大約 16% 的租約在第四季度到期。然後您認為其中大約有很大一部分將作為續租交易與新租賃交易進行續租。因此，考慮到即將到期的租賃比例較低以及續租和新租賃定價之間的差異，從現在到今年年底，新租賃業績對盈利的總體影響並不像您想像的那麼大。

Yes, that's helpful. And then I guess, are there any other items that we should be thinking about when it comes to your revenue growth potential next year? I know I sometimes ask about this other income, but I think you've been studying the WiFi cable program. So I was curious if that might pick up next year, if that's maybe an opportunity more for like 2026 and 2027?

是的，這很有幫助。然後我想，當談到明年的收入成長潛力時，我們還應該考慮其他任何項目嗎？我知道我有時會問有關其他收入的問題，但我認為您一直在研究 WiFi 有線計劃。所以我很好奇明年這種情況是否會有所好轉，這是否是 2026 年和 2027 年的更多機會？

Yes. I mean, you called out one that can start to have an impact. I mean, we're testing or retrofitting four properties this year that are just now starting to go live that have that property-wide ubiquitous WiFi, if you will. And so if you think about those four properties by themselves is once it's fully rolled out and kind of flows through the portfolio is close to $1 million. So you can start to extrapolate the opportunities that we have there.

是的。我的意思是，你提出了一個可以開始產生影響力的方案。我的意思是，我們今年正在測試或改造四處房產，這些房產剛開始投入使用，如果您願意的話，這些房產都擁有覆蓋整個房產的無處不在的 WiFi。因此，如果您單獨考慮這四項資產，一旦它完全推出，透過投資組合的資金流量將接近 100 萬美元。因此，您可以開始推斷我們在那裡擁有的機會。

We expect to expand that pretty significantly next year, initially looking at maybe 20 to 25 properties that we do in 2025. So -- on the revenue side, that would be one that I'd call out. We're wrapping up the smart installations at the last few properties now. There'll be a little bit of tailwind from that in 2025, but other than rent growth and stable occupancy, I think the WiFi starts to slowly have a bit of an impact.

我們預計明年將大幅擴展這一規模，最初考慮的是 2025 年我們可能會開發 20 到 25 處房產。因此，在收入方面，這將是我要強調的一個。我們現在正在完成最後幾處房產的智慧安裝。到 2025 年，這將帶來一些推動作用，但除了租金成長和穩定的入住率之外，我認為 WiFi 開始慢慢產生一些影響。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

約翰金 (John Kim)，BMO 資本市場。

As far as hurricane and storm-related costs, you don't exclude or add back those costs to get to your core FFO, which I think is a really standout policy versus maybe some of your peers. But going forward, will you be including a larger assumed expense in your guidance as you look to 2025? And how do you think about exposure in some of these markets like Tampa?

至於與颶風和風暴相關的成本，您不會排除或添加這些成本來達到核心 FFO，我認為與某些同行相比，這是一項非常出色的政策。但展望 2025 年，您是否會在指導中納入更大的假設費用？您如何看待坦帕等一些市場的曝光？

Yes, John, this is Clay. So I think whenever you kind of look at what the cost that we had -- that we were projecting for the full year this year, it's going to be somewhere around $10 million -- $9 million, $10 million, call it. When you look back at over the, call it, past seven years -- six, seven years, we haven't had anything of this magnitude that we've had to deal with. And it's been spread across each quarter this year. It hasn't been just one quarter or one storm.

是的，約翰，這是克萊。所以我認為，無論何時，只要你看看我們今年全年的成本是多少——我們預計今年全年的成本將在 1000 萬美元左右——900 萬美元、1000 萬美元，等等。當你回顧過去的七年——六、七年時，我們還沒有遇過如此嚴重的事情。今年它分佈在每個季度。這不僅僅是一個季度或一場風暴。

It's been multiple storms impacting us throughout the year. So I think as we look towards next year, that's not something we've traditionally done in the past as far as including some storm cost in our guidance, but we did include $0.01 in our guidance this past year (inaudible) earnings back in February and then released our 2024 guidance in February. So we reflected that but that's the only cost that we reflected in our guidance. But as we look forward to next year, I think that you expect to see something in there. It will not be at the levels that we experienced this year just because history has shown that, that's the norm.

全年有多次風暴影響著我們。因此，我認為，當我們展望明年時，這並不是我們過去傳統上所做的事情，在我們的指導中包括一些風暴成本，但我們在去年2 月的指導中確實包括了0.01 美元（聽不清）收益然後在 2 月發布了我們的 2024 年指南。所以我們反映了這一點，但這是我們在指導中反映的唯一成本。但當我們展望明年時，我認為您希望在那裡看到一些東西。它不會達到我們今年所經歷的水平，因為歷史已經表明，這是常態。

But I would expect it will include something in our guidance to account for that.

但我希望我們的指南中會包含一些內容來解釋這一點。

And then does it make you think differently about some of your Florida exposure? I know you just purchased something in Orlando. But as far as Tampa and maybe some other markets where insurance cost could be pretty significant?

那麼這是否會讓您對佛羅裡達州的一些經歷產生不同的看法？我知道你剛剛在奧蘭多買了東西。但就坦帕以及其他一些保險成本可能相當高的市場而言？

Well, the one -- that's -- the insurance cost in Florida gets a lot of publicity. Of course, one thing you have to consider is just our overall portfolio and that we're able to defer a little bit of that risk across all of our markets, not just in the Florida market. So we're still committed to Florida. Yes, there's some higher costs related to insurance there. But just given our size and portfolio of our platform that we have across the portfolio, we can still take advantage of some opportunities there.

嗯，佛羅裡達州的保險費用受到了廣泛關注。當然，您必須考慮的一件事是我們的整體投資組合，並且我們能夠在所有市場（而不僅僅是佛羅裡達市場）推遲一點風險。所以我們仍然致力於佛羅裡達州。是的，那裡有一些與保險相關的較高費用。但考慮到我們的規模和平台的投資組合，我們仍然可以利用那裡的一些機會。

And just to clarify, you do exclude these costs from same-store expense, but do you keep those affected in the same-store pool?

澄清一下，您確實將這些成本排除在同店費用之外，但您是否將受影響的費用保留在同店池中？

Yes. We -- you got to think over these -- the damage that we've seen has been extremely moderate, so damage is probably a strong word. It's more of a cleanup that we see whenever we -- these properties are typically impacted. If you do have a property that was significantly damaged, lost a number of units that had to -- that would not be able to be occupied, we would probably remove that property from same-store while it was being repaired and put back into service. So we'll treat that particular property as appropriate based on our general policy of how we include stores and same-store versus non-same store.

是的。我們——你必須考慮一下這些——我們所看到的損害是非常溫和的，所以損害可能是一個很強烈的詞。每當我們看到這些屬性通常受到影響時，這更像是一種清理。如果您的房產確實受到嚴重損壞，丟失了一些必須無法使用的單位，我們可能會在修復並重新投入使用時將該房產從同一家商店中移除。因此，我們將根據我們如何包括商店以及同店與非同店的一般政策，適當地對待該特定財產。

But to your point, these cleanup costs, we've reflected those as non-same-store costs in our earnings, primarily we don't want it to impact the comparability of the same-store portfolio.

但就您而言，這些清理成本，我們已將其作為非同店成本反映在我們的收入中，主要是我們不希望它影響同店投資組合的可比性。

Julien Blouin, Goldman Sachs.

朱利安布盧因，高盛。

I just want to make sure I heard a couple of numbers correctly. So the earn-in going into next year about negative 30 basis points and then gain to lease currently around negative 70 basis points. And then with -- my real sort of question here is with new lease spreads down 7% in October, do you still think we can get to sort of positive new lease spreads by spring, early summer? It just seems like quite the ramp to get there.

我只是想確保我正確地聽到了幾個數字。因此，明年的獲利約為負 30 個基點，然後目前的租賃收益約為負 70 個基點。然後，我真正的問題是，10 月新租賃利差下降了 7%，您是否仍然認為我們可以在春季、初夏之前實現積極的新租賃利差？到達那裡似乎需要相當長的坡道。

Yes. To answer your first question, you have those numbers correct. That is what we stated. As far as new lease rates, we'll talk more about this, obviously, in our next quarter earnings. Difficult to say right now exactly where it will get to.

是的。要回答你的第一個問題，你的這些數字是正確的。這就是我們所說的。至於新的租賃利率，顯然，我們將在下個季度的收益中更多地討論這一點。現在很難確切地說它會到達哪裡。

We're kind of going through our budgeting planning process now. I think one point to make is through this year, our best new lease pricing was about negative 4%, negative 4.2%, something like that in July. We certainly expect to exceed that. And to reiterate a point I made earlier, even in normal supply-demand environments, Q1, Q4, typically negative new lease pricing anyway. So it's really Q2 and Q3 where you start to see it go positive.

我們現在正在經歷預算規劃過程。我認為需要指出的一點是，今年以來，我們最好的新租賃定價約為負 4%、負 4.2%，與 7 月的情況類似。我們當然期望超過這個數字。重申我之前提出的一點，即使在正常的供需環境下，第一季、第四季度，新租賃定價通常為負值。所以，從第二季和第三季開始，你就開始看到它的正面發展。

So more to come on that, but we certainly believe all of the factors, supply and demand point to much better new lease performance in '25 than '24.

未來還會有更多這樣的事情發生，但我們當然相信所有因素、供應和需求都表明 25 年的新租賃業績比 24 年好得多。

And of course, the prior year comparisons factor into this as well.

當然，前一年的比較也都考慮在內。

That's right.

這是正確的。

Yes. On those sort of comparisons, it does feel like the comparisons get a lot easier year-over-year in November and December, given just the new lease deceleration in concessions we saw last year. So if the worst of supply pressure is behind us and October held steady versus September, why wouldn't that sort of new lease spread begin to improve sequentially into November and December?

是的。在這些比較中，考慮到我們去年看到的新租賃優惠減速，11 月和 12 月的比較確實感覺比去年同期要容易得多。因此，如果最嚴重的供應壓力已經過去，並且 10 月與 9 月相比保持穩定，為什麼這種新租賃價差不會在 11 月和 12 月開始連續改善？

Well, we'll see, and it might. We certainly don't expect it to get much worse for all the reasons we've laid out, including those easier comps. It's always new lease is certainly the tip of the spear and can change on a dime. But we feel comfortable it's going to stay in this range, if not start to improve a little bit. But the other point is just there's not much leases as we mentioned, 16% and frankly not a lot of traffic, particularly when you get into mid-November on through December just with holidays, just not a lot of people searching.

好吧，我們拭目以待，也許會。由於我們已經列出的所有原因，包括那些更容易的比賽，我們當然不希望情況變得更糟。新租約始終是矛尖，可以隨時改變。但我們感到放心的是，即使沒有開始有所改善，它也會保持在這個範圍內。但另一點是，正如我們所提到的，租賃量並不多，為16%，而且坦白說，流量並不多，特別是當你進入11 月中旬到12 月的假期時，只是沒有很多人搜尋.

So it's not going to have a material impact one way or the other but it could -- we could see us sort of hanging in where it is right now.

因此，它不會以某種方式產生實質影響，但它可能會——我們可以看到我們有點堅持現在的位置。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

亞當‧克萊默，摩根士丹利。

I just wanted to ask about kind of the portfolio opportunity out there. I think you've talked a little bit about kind of the one-off acquisition opportunities and clearly seeing you guys be a little bit more acquisitive there. But are you seeing any change in terms of kind of sellers of portfolios out there? We've seen some large portfolios trade recently. Is that something that maybe you guys can take advantage of?

我只是想問一下那裡的投資組合機會。我認為您已經談到了一次性收購機會，並且清楚地看到您在那裡更加收購。但您是否發現投資組合賣家的類型有任何變化？我們最近看到一些大型投資組合的交易。這是你們可以利用的東西嗎？

Or is the pricing there not kind of what you're looking for?

或者那裡的定價不是您想要的？

Adam, this is Brad. I mean, generally, what we see on portfolios is a lot of times, the quality of the assets are not what we're looking for. There's some type of bad with the good, so to speak. In some of the portfolios that we've seen recently, I mean, frankly, part of that has been pricing. Some of the pricing on those assets were more aggressive than what we believed was appropriate or where we want to invest our capital.

亞當，這是布拉德。我的意思是，一般來說，我們在投資組合中看到的很多時候，資產的品質並不是我們想要的。可以這麼說，好的一面也有壞的一面。坦白說，在我們最近看到的一些投資組合中，其中一部分是定價。這些資產的一些定價比我們認為合適的或我們想要投資的地方更加激進。

I mean, if you look at the three one-off acquisitions that we transacted on, close to 6% on an NOI yield basis for brand-new assets. So from an after-CapEx basis, it's pretty appealing, especially considered to where some of these portfolios are trading. And then if you take into account the age and after-CapEx nature of those, we just feel like what we've been able to do so far has been a very good strategy for us. Now if there's a portfolio out there that we think has some type of strategic nature to it, that makes us stronger in some way, we would absolutely take a look at that. And if it's accretive to earnings, we would be interested in looking at something like that.

我的意思是，如果你看一下我們進行的三筆一次性收購，你會發現全新資產的 NOI 收益率接近 6%。因此，從資本支出後的角度來看，它非常有吸引力，特別是考慮到其中一些投資組合的交易地點。然後，如果你考慮到這些的年齡和資本支出後的性質，我們只是覺得到目前為止我們能夠做的對我們來說是一個非常好的策略。現在，如果我們認為有一個投資組合具有某種策略性質，可以使我們在某種程度上變得更強大，我們絕對會考慮一下。如果它能增加收入，我們就會有興趣關注類似的事情。

Great. And then just as a quick follow-up here. Just remind us where kind of the pre-COVID bad debt level or rule of thumb is and then kind of where you are today relative to that. And your view as to kind of getting back to that pre-COVID number, is that something that can happen in 2025 or is that still multiple years away?

偉大的。然後作為快速跟進。請提醒我們，新冠疫情之前的壞帳水平或經驗法則是多少，以及您今天相對於此的水平。您認為回到新冠疫情之前的數字是 2025 年可能發生的事情還是還需要幾年的時間？

I mean, we're -- honestly, we're just about there. I mean, I think pre COVID, it was anywhere from 30 to 40 basis points of net delinquency. Right now, we're at about 40 basis points. So there's -- at most, there's 5 to 10 basis points of difference in terms of where we were pre COVID. We didn't -- they certainly didn't deteriorate near as much as some other markets and we've just now gotten back to where we were pre COVID.

我的意思是，說實話，我們快到了。我的意思是，我認為在新冠疫情爆發之前，淨拖欠率在 30 到 40 個基點之間。目前，我們的利率約為 40 個基點。因此，與新冠疫情爆發前相比，最多存在 5 到 10 個基點的差異。我們沒有——它們當然沒有像其他一些市場那樣惡化，而且我們剛剛回到了新冠疫情之前的水平。

Michael Lewis, Truist Securities.

邁克爾劉易斯，Truist 證券公司。

So Eric, in the press release last night and in your remarks, you said we're confident we will enter a new multiyear cycle with demand outpacing supply. One of the points of pushback I sometimes get is with cost pressures easing, the short-term interest rates coming down, and developers who have capital like you are already starting projects, that maybe this cycle will be short, right? That maybe what ends up happening is your same-store growth in '25 is similar or a little bit better than '24 and maybe '26 is a good year. And then by the time you get to '27, you have your next wave of deliveries. So maybe there's historical precedent or kind of what do you think about the reason why Sunbelt supply won't just rise up to meet the demand kind of more quickly than in the past?

艾瑞克，在昨晚的新聞稿和您的演講中，您說我們有信心進入一個需求超過供應的新的多年周期。我有時遇到的阻力之一是成本壓力緩解，短期利率下降，像您這樣有資本的開發商已經開始項目，也許這個週期會很短，對嗎？也許最終發生的事情是你在 25 年的同店增長與 24 年相似或略好一些，也許 26 年是一個好年份。然後到 27 年時，您將迎來下一波交付。那麼，也許有歷史先例，或者您認為為什麼陽光地帶的供應不會比過去更快地增加以滿足需求？

Well, I think to put it in context, what's important to recall or remember is that the deliveries this year, this is not a normal supply cycle. The deliveries this year is a 50-year high, 50-year high. And so do I think that by '27, 2028, and '29, that we could see supply levels pick up from where they will likely be in '25 and '26? It is certainly possible. You have to start to think about financing costs and construction costs and when things pencil out by that point in a way that is super compelling for developers.

嗯，我認為從上下文來看，重要的是要回憶或記住今年的交付，這不是正常的供應週期。今年的交付量是50年來的新高，50年來的新高。那麼我是否認為到 27 年、2028 年和 29 年，我們可以看到供應水準比 25 年和 26 年可能的水準有所回升？這當然是可能的。你必須開始考慮融資成本和建造成本，到那時事情就會以一種對開發商來說非常有吸引力的方式出現。

But I think that the idea that we are going to any time in the next 10 years repeat this 50-year high cycle, I think, is not reasonable, in my opinion. So I think that -- and of course, we've long believed that ultimately, what really drives performance and ability to drive value for shareholder capital over a long period of time is really the demand side of the business. We go through these periodic cycles where supply picks up, but because of some of the things Brad mentioned in terms of how we've diversified across both mid-tier and large tier markets, we think we can weather these supply cycles okay. And if you have told me two years ago, three years ago we were headed to a 50-year high delivery of new supply and that our NOI was only going to go down by 1.3%, I'd take that all day long. That's -- if that's as bad as it gets in a 50-year period, that's okay.

但我認為，我們將在未來 10 年的任何時候重複這個 50 年高週期的想法是不合理的。所以我認為——當然，我們長期以來一直相信，最終真正推動業績和長期為股東資本帶來價值的能力實際上是業務的需求方。我們經歷了供應回升的周期性週期，但由於布拉德提到的關於我們如何在中型和大型市場中實現多元化的一些事情，我們認為我們可以順利度過這些供應週期。如果你在兩年前、三年前告訴我，我們的新供應交付量將達到 50 年來的最高水平，而我們的 NOI 只會下降 1.3%，我會整天相信這一點。如果情況跟 50 年來一樣糟糕，那也沒關係。

And next year will be better. '26 will be even better. I think '27 and '28 will be even better. Now is it possible that again, supply picks up in '28, '29? Probably so. But I don't see us going back to another 50-year high.

明年會更好。 '26會更好。我認為'27和'28會更好。現在，供應量有可能在 28 年、29 年再次回升嗎？大概是這樣。但我不認為我們會回到另一個 50 年來的高點。

Yes, Michael, this is Brad. The only point I would add is if you look at the starts that occurred in first, second, third quarter of 2022, there's a very high correlation with that associated with where interest rates were, historic low interest rates. I think interest rates could come down a little bit from where they are today, but they certainly, we don't think, go back to that level that really spurred this kind of excessive 50-year high supply levels that Eric was talking about.

是的，邁克爾，這是布拉德。我要補充的唯一一點是，如果你看看 2022 年第一、第二、第三季發生的情況，你會發現與利率水準、歷史低利率有非常高的相關性。我認為利率可能會比現在的水平略有下降，但我們認為，利率肯定不會回到真正刺激埃里克所說的 50 年高供應水平的水平。

Okay, great. And I'm going to structure my second question kind of the same way, right? I'm going to read a brief excerpt from Cushman & Wakefield's 3Q National Apartment Report and then ask you a question. So they said, demand for apartment units is booming again. Resurgent international migration trends in recent years alongside a stout labor market continue to power some of the best multifamily demand on record. So maybe this is opening a can of worms or maybe it's a better question after maybe for NAREIT when hopefully we know who the next President is going to be.

好的，太好了。我將以同樣的方式建立我的第二個問題，對嗎？我將閱讀戴德梁行第三季全國公寓報告的簡短摘錄，然後問您一個問題。他們說，對公寓的需求再次蓬勃發展。近年來國際移民趨勢的復甦以及強勁的勞動力市場繼續推動一些有史以來最好的多戶家庭需求。因此，也許這會打開一罐蠕蟲，或者也許這是一個更好的問題，也許對於 NAREIT 來說，當我們希望知道下一任總統將是誰時。

But since they singled out migration, it's not a topic that I hear a lot about as a primary demand driver. Is it -- now that maybe we'll have mass deportations, I don't know. But to the extent the migration picture changes, is this a major key variable? Like in 2025, is this going to be a key demand variable potentially where me and the rest of the analysts on the call are writing research reports about this? Or do you think is that wildly overstating the importance of how that trends?

但由於他們單獨指出了移民問題，因此我並沒有經常聽到這個話題作為主要需求驅動因素。是不是——現在我們可能會進行大規模驅逐，我不知道。但就移民狀況的變化而言，這是一個主要的關鍵變數嗎？就像 2025 年一樣，這是否會成為我和其他參加電話會議的分析師正在撰寫相關研究報告的關鍵需求變數？或者你認為這是否過度誇大了這種趨勢的重要性？

I think the influence immigration has on our property performance is a function of two things: it's a function of the markets, obviously. And I would argue that a number of the coastal gateway markets are going to be more influenced by immigration trends than a lot of our Sunbelt markets. Secondly, I would tell you that the price point of your product is going to also be impacted somewhat or is a variable that can be influenced by immigration trends. And we think that a lower price point portfolio is more likely than not to be more at risk from fluctuation with growing or declining levels of immigration. We think that we are not exposed in that way.

我認為移民對我們房地產表現的影響有兩個因素：顯然，這是市場的函數。我認為，與許多陽光地帶市場相比，許多海岸門戶市場將更容易受到移民趨勢的影響。其次，我想告訴您，您產品的價格點也會受到一定程度的影響，或是可能受到移民趨勢影響的變數。我們認為，隨著移民數量的增加或減少，價格較低的投資組合更有可能面臨更大的波動風險。我們認為我們沒有那樣暴露。

Over 80% of our portfolio is single. Majority are female. We're serving a resident profile with average incomes of over $80,000, $85,000 a year. I mean, this is not a demographic that we're serving largely in our portfolio that's going to be influenced or impacted one way or the other by changing immigration trends.

我們超過 80% 的投資組合是單身。大多數是女性。我們為平均收入超過 80,000 美元（即年收入 85,000 美元）的居民提供服務。我的意思是，這不是我們在我們的投資組合中主要服務的人群，他們不會受到移民趨勢變化的影響或影響。

Alex Kim, Zelman.

亞歷克斯·金，澤爾曼。

I wanted to ask about occupancy trends. Same-store occupancy rose 20 basis points sequentially this quarter, and I know it stands at 95.4% in October. But can you talk through some of the drivers of the 3Q increase? And with blended rent growth inflecting negatively during the quarter, I mean, when does incremental occupancy become less valuable than rent growth to your revenue strategy?

我想詢問入住趨勢。本季同店入住率較上季成長了 20 個基點，據我所知，10 月同店入住率達 95.4%。但您能談談第三季成長的一些驅動因素嗎？隨著本季混合租金成長出現負面影響，我的意思是，對於您的收入策略而言，什麼時候增量入住率會變得不如租金成長那麼有價值？

I mean, I think as far as the increase in occupancy from Q2 to Q3 is a function of the absorption we talked about and getting more units absorbed than were delivered. And we certainly saw that play out in our portfolio and the majority of our markets saw that sequential gain. We balance pricing and occupancy at a market, submarket property level. I think we're comfortable where we are right now with occupancy at 95.4% primarily because of what we see with exposure that we talked about. We're at a record low exposure, something we haven't seen ever at 6.3 which what that does is kind of stabilizes where we think occupancy will be over the next 60 days or so and allow this where we can to push on pricing.

我的意思是，我認為從第二季到第三季的入住率增加是我們談到的吸收的函數，吸收的單位多於交付的單位。我們確實看到了這種情況在我們的投資組合中發揮作用，並且我們的大多數市場都看到了連續的成長。我們在市場、子市場物業層面平衡定價和入住率。我認為我們對目前 95.4% 的入住率感到滿意，主要是因為我們所看到的曝光率。我們的曝光度處於創紀錄的低位，這是我們從未見過的 6.3，它的作用是穩定我們認為入住率將在未來 60 天左右的時間，並允許我們在可以推動定價的情況​​下進行。

So exposure is what we look at a little more than occupancy. And it sits in that range. We're certainly comfortable in this 95.4%, 95.5% range and being able to push a little bit on pricing where we can.

因此，我們關注的不僅僅是入住率。它就在這個範圍內。我們當然對 95.4%、95.5% 的範圍感到滿意，並且能夠在力所能及的情況下稍微提高定價。

Got it. And then just a quick follow-up here. This is now the second quarter (inaudible) that was already in lease-up. Can you talk through just kind of what you're seeing, what you like about that strategy? And it is something that you'll continue employing moving forward?

知道了。然後在這裡進行快速跟進。現在是已經處於租賃狀態的第二季（聽不清楚）。您能談談您所看到的情況以及您喜歡該策略的哪些方面嗎？您今後會繼續使用它嗎？

You kind of broke up on your question. Can you repeat that last question?

你的問題有點分手了。你能重複最後一個問題嗎？

Yes, sorry. Just asking about your recent activity in buying properties and lease-up. Just curious about that strategy and if it's something you'll continue?

是的，抱歉。只是詢問您最近在購買房產和租賃方面的活動。只是對這個策略感到好奇，您是否會繼續這樣做？

Yes, absolutely. Our acquisition strategy has been focused on brand-new properties in their initial lease-up for the last few years. Again, we just think that there's an opportunity for us to execute in that area, given that it's harder to get to line up financing when a property is not stabilized, and our ability to execute all cash is a benefit for us that we're able to really execute driving higher returns, higher NOI yields than what we could get on a fully marketed project that's stabilized. So yes, we'll continue to focus in that area.

是的，絕對是。過去幾年，我們的收購策略一直專注於初始租賃的全新房產。再說一遍，我們只是認為我們有機會在該領域執行，因為當房產不穩定時很難獲得融資，而我們執行所有現金的能力對我們來說是一個好處，因為我們能夠真正執行帶來比我們在完全行銷的穩定項目上獲得的更高的回報和更高的NOI 收益率。所以，是的，我們將繼續關注該領域。

Ann Chan, Green Street.

陳安安，格林街。

Just one question for me and keeping on the topic of demand earlier. Amongst your larger markets, particularly where supply continues to pressure pricing, which markets are you underwriting weaker or stronger job growth or in migration on a relative basis?

只是問我一個問題，並繼續討論之前的需求主題。在您的較大市場中，特別是在供應繼續對定價構成壓力的市場中，您認為哪些市場的就業成長或移民成長相對較弱或較強？

Well, certainly, a market that we talked a lot about that's struggling right now, Austin is one that as we think about longer term is one that we're really high on. I mean, we -- in terms of broader trends, we look at migration, we look at household formation. We look at population growth and obviously look at job growth, and Austin is near the top of the list in all of those. So that would be one. Raleigh is another one that we feel strong about.

嗯，當然，我們經常談論的市場目前正在苦苦掙扎，從長遠來看，奧斯汀是一個我們非常看好的市場。我的意思是，我們——就更廣泛的趨勢而言，我們關注移民，我們關注家庭的形成。我們關注人口成長，顯然也關注就業成長，奧斯汀在所有這些方面都名列前茅。所以這就是其中之一。羅利是另一個讓我們感覺很強烈的地方。

Orlando is one that has had some struggle with supply, but it's got some really strong demand metrics. So most of our footprint, we would be happy to continue to acquire in. But those are two or three markets that I would point out is having some really strong forward-looking demand trends.

奧蘭多在供應方面遇到了一些困難，但它有一些非常強勁的需求指標。因此，我們很樂意繼續收購我們的大部分足跡。但我要指出的是，這些市場中有兩三個市場具有一些非常強勁的前瞻性需求趨勢。

We have no further questions. I will return the call to MAA for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我將回電給 MAA 進行總結發言。

Okay. No further comments from the company. I appreciate you joining us this morning, and we look forward to seeing many of you out at NAREIT.

好的。該公司沒有進一步評論。我很感謝您今天早上加入我們，我們期待在 NAREIT 見到你們中的許多人。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。