Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings conference call. During the presentation, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Afterward, the company will conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, February 6, 2025.

女士們、先生們，早上好，歡迎參加 MAA 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。在演示過程中，所有參與者將處於只聽模式。隨後，該公司將進行問答環節。提醒一下，本次電話會議於今天（2025 年 2 月 6 日）錄製。

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MMA, for opening comments.

現在，我將把電話轉給 MMA 高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer，請他發表開場評論。

Thank you, Ian. And good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team participating on the call this morning are Eric Bolton, Brad Hill, Tim Argo, Clay Holder and Rob DelPriore.

謝謝你，伊恩。大家早安。這是 MAA 的財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer。參加今天早上電話會議的管理團隊成員包括 Eric Bolton、Brad Hill、Tim Argo、Clay Holder 和 Rob DelPriore。

Before we begin with prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34 Act filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.

在我們今天早上開始準備好的評論之前，我想指出，作為本次討論的一部分，公司管理層將做出前瞻性的陳述。實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。我們鼓勵您參考昨天的收益報告中的前瞻性陳述部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 34 份法案文件，其中描述了可能影響未來結果的風險因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com. A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將討論某些非公認會計準則財務指標。在我們的收益報告和補充財務數據中可以找到最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的展示以及非 GAAP 和可比較 GAAP 指標之間差異的對帳。我們的收益報告和補充資料目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的「投資者」頁面上查閱。我們準備好的評論的副本和本次通話的錄音也將於今天晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。在一些簡短的準備好的評論之後，管理團隊將回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Eric.

現在我將電話轉給 Eric。

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning.

謝謝，安德魯，早安。

As reported in our earnings release, MAA finished calendar year 2024 in line with our expectations and is in a great position for the recovery cycle for apartment leasing that should be increasingly evident over the course of this year. While we are still working through the impact of record high levels of new supply delivered over the past year, we are encouraged with some of the early recovery trends that we are capturing with lease over lease pricing performance.

正如我們在收益報告中所述，MAA 2024 財年的表現符合我們的預期，並且在公寓租賃的復甦週期中處於有利地位，這一復甦週期在今年應該會越來越明顯。雖然我們仍在努力應對過去一年來創紀錄的高水準新供應帶來的影響，但我們透過租賃定價表現捕捉到的一些早期復甦趨勢令我們感到鼓舞。

While it would take some time for the recovery momentum to build, it seems clear that the tide is starting to turn. And we look forward to a productive spring and summer leasing season when the improving trends will have a more obvious compounding impact on overall portfolio results late this year and into 2026.

儘管復甦勢頭的形成還需要一段時間，但很明顯，情況正在開始轉變。我們期待春季和夏季租賃旺季的到來，屆時改善的趨勢將對今年末至 2026 年的整體投資組合業績產生更明顯的複合影響。

Before turning the call over to Brad, I did want to take just a few minutes this morning and tell you why I'm excited and confident about the prospects for MAA's earnings outlook over the emerging recovery cycle. It starts with my confidence in our leadership team.

在將電話轉給布拉德之前，我想先花幾分鐘告訴大家為什麼我對 MAA 在新興復甦週期中的盈利前景感到興奮和有信心。這首先源自於我對我們領導團隊的信心。

As we disclosed in December, effective April 1, we plan to execute on the next step in our CEO succession planning program. And Brad, will assume the role of President and CEO. I'll remain active in supporting Brad and our Board as executive Chairman.

正如我們在 12 月所揭露的那樣，從 4 月 1 日起，我們計劃執行 CEO 繼任計畫方案的下一步。布拉德將擔任總裁兼執行長。我將繼續以執行主席的身份積極支持布拉德和我們的董事會。

Brad and his executive leadership team have an average tenure of 16 years with our company. I know this leadership team well, and I have a lot of confidence in them. Brad and his team have a deep understanding of our strategy and our approach to executing on that strategy, which has delivered sector leading long-term results for shareholder capital.

布拉德和他的執行領導團隊在我們公司平均任職 16 年。我很了解這個領導團隊，並且對他們很有信心。布拉德和他的團隊對我們的策略以及執行該策略的方法有著深刻的理解，這為股東資本帶來了領先業界的長期業績。

Beyond my confidence in our leadership team, while our markets have more recently been challenged with a 50-year high record of new supply deliveries, there is increasing evidence that the worst of the pressure from this new supply is poised to materially moderate, especially as we get into the summer leasing season. As we have discussed, we historically have seen the actual delivery and leasing pressure from competing new development peak at roughly 2 years after the start of construction.

除了我對我們領導團隊的信心之外，雖然我們的市場最近面臨著 50 年來新供應交付量創下新高的挑戰，但越來越多的證據表明，這些新供應帶來的最嚴重壓力即將得到實質緩解，特別是當我們進入夏季租賃季節時。正如我們所討論的，從歷史上看，競爭性新開發項目的實際交付和租賃壓力在建設開始後大約兩年達到高峰。

Based on our analysis, the volume of new construction started in calendar year 2023 or two years ago dropped 39% from the peak of starts during the extraordinarily low-interest rate environment in calendar year 2022. And then start sequentially drop another 50% in calendar year 2024. So, this is expected to result in a significant decline in actual unit deliveries starting this year and into 2026 and 2027.

根據我們的分析，2023 年或兩年前開工的新建築數量較 2022 年極低利率環境的開工高峰下降了 39%。然後在 2024 年開始再連續下降 50%。因此，預計這將導致從今年開始以及 2026 年和 2027 年實際單位交付量大幅下降。

Given where we are currently with interest rates and construction costs, we continue to see challenges in the market's ability to meaningfully restart and increase in new projects. Taken together, we believe these conditions will manifest in a sharp drop in new supply delivery starting this year and continuing for several years.

考慮到目前的利率和建築成本，我們繼續看到市場在有意義地重啟和增加新項目的能力方面面臨挑戰。綜合起來，我們認為這些情況將導致今年開始新供應交付量急劇下降，並持續數年。

In addition to the supply dynamic and the impact of leasing conditions, we believe that our portfolio is uniquely well positioned to capture the benefits from job growth, population growth, and high single family housing costs. This continues to drive a resulting growth in the demand for apartment housing across our markets that will outpace national trends over the long haul.

除了供應動態和租賃條件的影響之外，我們相信，我們的投資組合具有獨特的優勢，能夠從就業成長、人口成長和高昂的單戶住房成本中獲益。這將繼續推動我們整個市場對公寓住房的需求成長，並且從長遠來看，其成長趨勢將超過全國趨勢。

This strong positioning for the demand side of the equation, coupled with the material drop in new supply this year and beyond, we believe will have a significant impact on market rent growth across the portfolio for the next few years.

我們認為，這種在需求方強勁的定位，加上今年及以後新增供應的大幅下降，將對未來幾年整個投資組合的市場租金成長產生重大影響。

Furthermore, I'm excited about the various new tech initiatives we have underway aimed at driving enhanced services for our residents and more efficiencies within our operating platform. Several new initiatives that we have more recently implemented, coupled with new projects that we'll launch over the coming year, we expect will further increase operating margin and accelerate earnings over the next few years.

此外，我對我們正在進行的各種新技術舉措感到非常興奮，這些舉措旨在為我們的居民提供更好的服務，並提高我們的營運平台的效率。我們最近實施的幾項新舉措，加上我們將在未來幾年啟動的新項目，我們預計這些將進一步提高營業利潤率並加速未來幾年的盈利。

And finally, our external growth pipeline is stronger and larger than at any time in our company history. We have several new projects slated to deliver over the emerging recovery cycle with other new sites already lined up, and importantly, the balance sheet is strong and well positioned to continue to support this growth.

最後，我們的外部成長管道比公司歷史上任何時候都更強大、更大。我們計劃在新一輪復甦週期內交付多個新項目，同時其他新站點也已準備就緒，而且重要的是，我們的資產負債表強勁，能夠繼續支持這一增長。

So in summary, the experience and proven capabilities of our leadership team, our orientation towards the strongest growth in housing demand markets in the country, the strength of our operating platform with growing efficiencies, and the more robust external growth pipeline we have in place that is supported by a sector leading a strong balance sheet all combined to drive much enthusiasm and confidence in my outlook for MAA over the next few years.

總而言之，我們領導團隊的經驗和經過驗證的能力、我們對全國最強勁的住房需求市場增長的定位、我們不斷提高效率的運營平台的實力、以及我們擁有的更強勁的外部增長渠道（由領先行業的強勁資產負債表支持），所有這些因素共同激發了我對 MAA 未來幾年前景的極大熱情和信心。

As this will serve as my last earnings call prior to the transition of the CEO role, I'd like to extend my appreciation and thanks to our shareholders and to the analyst community for your trust in our company and our team. It's truly been an honor to serve the public capital markets over the past 30 years here at MAA.

由於這將是執行長角色轉變之前的最後一次財報電話會議，因此我想向我們的股東和分析師社群對我們公司和我們團隊的信任表示感謝。過去 30 年來，能夠在 MAA 為公共資本市場提供服務，我真的感到非常榮幸。

Our culture at MAA is grounded in a strong belief that our stewardship of MAA assets and shareholder capital is at all times focused on creating value for the benefit of our residents, our shareholders, our associates, and the communities where we operate. I'm proud of our associates at MAA. I appreciate their hard work and support, and I look forward to MAA delivering even higher value in the future for those that we serve.

MAA 的文化植根於一個堅定的信念：我們對 MAA 資產和股東資本的管理始終致力於為我們的居民、股東、員工以及我們經營所在的社區創造價值。我為 MAA 的同事感到自豪。我感謝他們的辛勤工作和支持，並期待 MAA 將來為我們服務的對象提供更高的價值。

Turn over to Brad now.

現在交給布拉德。

Thank you, Eric. And good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，埃里克。大家早安。

As expected during the fourth quarter, our focus on occupancy combined with higher new supply and the typical seasonal slowdown in leasing traffic weighed on new resident lease pricing during the quarter, but the seasonal decline in lease over lease rates was less than we've seen in previous years. Encouragingly, this pressure has continued to moderate in January with blended pricing improving more from the fourth quarter's performance than in previous years, predominantly due to improvement in our new lease pricing. I share Eric's optimism for our growth prospects and momentum toward delivering strong long-term earnings.

正如第四季度所預期的那樣，我們對入住率的關注，加上新的供應量增加以及租賃流量的典型季節性放緩，對本季度的新住戶租賃價格造成了壓力，但租賃價格的季節性下降幅度低於前幾年的水平。令人鼓舞的是，這種壓力在一月繼續有所緩解，混合定價較第四季度的表現較前幾年有所改善，這主要歸功於我們新租賃定價的改善。我和艾瑞克一樣對我們的成長前景和實現強勁長期獲利的勢頭感到樂觀。

As Tim will discuss in more detail, we are seeing encouraging signs that indicate leasing conditions are poised to support improvement in blended lease rates and have a compounding impact on revenue performance throughout the year. Continued strong absorption, occupancy and exposure, improved seasonal performance, and an expected more meaningful reduction in supply pressure all contribute to a favorable outlook for our existing portfolio. Additionally, we're continuing to invest in several key areas that will significantly impact future earnings, including various technology initiatives that will support our centralization efforts and our enhance efficiencies.

正如蒂姆將更詳細地討論的那樣，我們看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，表明租賃條件有望支持混合租賃率的改善，並對全年的收入表現產生複合影響。持續強勁的吸收量、入住率和曝光率、季節性表現的改善以及預期的供應壓力更有意義的減少，都為我們現有投資組合的前景帶來了利好。此外，我們將繼續投資於將對未來收益產生重大影響的幾個關鍵領域，包括支持我們的集中化努力和提高效率的各種技術舉措。

In 2025, we will begin to more aggressively roll out property-wide Wi Fi across our portfolio. And we will ramp up the rollout over the next couple of years as a number of our properties transition off of our legacy bulk Wi Fi program.

2025 年，我們將開始更積極地在我們的整個酒店組合內推出覆蓋整個酒店的 Wi-Fi。隨著我們的許多酒店逐漸放棄傳統的批量 Wi-Fi 計劃，我們將在未來幾年內加強推廣。

We also plan to increase our investments in the interior renovation and repositioning programs, both of which benefit from the higher priced new supply that has delivered into the market recently. On the external growth front, we're committed to maintaining an active development pipeline of around a billion dollars.

我們還計劃增加對室內裝修和重新定位項目的投資，這兩項計劃均受益於最近投放市場的價格更高的新供應。在外部成長方面，我們致力於維持約 10 億美元的活躍開發資金。

In 2024, we invested in a record 5 projects expected to deliver average NOI yields at stabilization of 6.3%. Ending the year with 7 projects under construction, representing over 2,300 units at a cost of approximately $850 million. We expect to start construction on another 3 to 4 projects in 2025. As the transaction market begins to open later this year, we'll continue to opportunistically deploy capital and acquisitions that are in their initial lease.

2024年，我們投資了創紀錄的5個項目，預計平均淨營運收益將穩定在6.3%。今年底，在建工程共有 7 個，超過 2,300 個單元，耗資約 8.5 億美元。我們預計將於 2025 年開始動工另外 3 至 4 個項目。隨著今年稍後交易市場開始開放，我們將繼續抓住機會部署初始租約中的資本和收購。

During the fourth quarter, we closed on a 386-unit property early in its initial lease up in the Dallas market. This property was 44% occupied at the end of the fourth quarters and is expected to stabilize in early 2026. This brings our total acquisitions in 2024 to 3 properties which were on average 65% occupied at closing and projected to deliver NOI yields of 5.9% upon reaching stabilization in 2025 and 2026.

第四季度，我們在達拉斯市場初期就成交了一處擁有 386 個單位的房產。截至第四季末，該物業的入住率為 44%，預計將在 2026 年初穩定下來。這使得我們在 2024 年的總收購額達到 3 處房產，這些房產在交易完成時平均入住率為 65%，預計在 2025 年和 2026 年達到穩定後將實現 5.9% 的 NOI 收益率。

During the fourth quarter, we sold two properties with an average age of 29 years, 216-unit property in Charlotte, North Carolina. In the 272-unit property in Richmond, Virginia, delivering a combined investment period IRR of approximately 19%. We have two additional properties in Columbia, South Carolina under contract and expect those to close in the first quarter of 2025.

第四季度，我們位於北卡羅來納州夏洛特，出售了兩處平均樓齡 29 年的房產，共 216 個單位。位於維吉尼亞州里士滿的 272 個單位的物業中，綜合投資期 IRR 約為 19%。我們在南卡羅來納州哥倫比亞市還有另外兩處房產已簽訂合同，預計將於 2025 年第一季完成交易。

We will continue our focus on strengthening our overall earnings quality by recycling capital out of some of our older higher CapEx properties and redeploying that capital into newer acquisitions with a higher earnings growth profile, particularly on an after CapEx basis. We expect to execute on the balance of our $325 million disposition plan late in the year.

我們將繼續致力於加強我們的整體盈利質量，透過從一些舊的高資本支出資產中回收資本，並將這些資本重新部署到具有更高盈利增長前景的新收購中，特別是在資本支出之後。我們預計將在今年稍後執行 3.25 億美元處置計劃的餘額。

At the end of the fourth quarter, we had 8 communities in Lisa, 4 acquisitions and 4 developments with an end of the year occupancy of 69.7%. We expect the acquisitions to average NOI yields at stabilization of 5.9% and the developments to average NOI yields around 6.4%.

截至第四季末，我們在麗莎擁有 8 個社區、4 次收購和 4 次開發，年底入住率為 69.7%。我們預計收購的平均 NOI 收益率將穩定在 5.9%，而發展的平均 NOI 收益率將達到 6.4% 左右。

Due to the high level of competition in many of our markets and our intent to hold firm on our rent pricing expectations, we pushed the expected stabilization dates back slightly on a few of our lease of properties by one quarter. However, rents continue to exceed our pro forma expectations and the stabilized NOI yields on our new developments in lease up are significantly above our original expectations.

由於我們許多市場的競爭非常激烈，而且我們打算保持租金定價預期，因此我們將部分物業租賃的預期穩定日期略微推遲了一個季度。然而，租金持續超出我們的預期，而且我們新開發案的租賃穩定的淨營運收益也大大高於我們最初的預期。

Our existing portfolio is well positioned to benefit from the improving demand and supply trends with our various growth initiatives providing additional earnings over the recovery cycle. To all of our associates at the properties and our corporate and regional offices, thank you for your commitment, hard work, and dedication that you show every day to our prospects, residents, and fellow associates.

我們現有的投資組合能夠從不斷改善的供需趨勢中獲益，而我們的各種成長計畫將在復甦週期內帶來額外收益。我們向所有在物業、公司和地區辦事處工作的同事們致以感謝，感謝你們每天向我們的潛在客戶、住戶和同事們展示的承諾、辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

Before turning the call over to Tim, I do want to take a moment to say a few words in recognition of Eric ahead of his transition to the Executive Chairman role. Over his 30 years of service to MAA with 23 years as our Chief Executive Officer, Eric has been instrumental in so many ways to this company. His dedication to serving our various stakeholders is second to none.

在將電話轉給蒂姆之前，我想花點時間在埃里克擔任執行主席之前說幾句話來表示對他的讚賞。Eric 為 MAA 服務了 30 年，其中 23 年擔任首席執行官，在許多方面為公司做出了重要貢獻。他為各利害關係人服務的奉獻精神是首屈一指的。

We are grateful for his vision and wisdom, his courage, and his discipline in leading this company to unmatched performance. His mentorship and counsel over the years to so many in the industry and especially to MAA's executive leadership team and to me exemplify the tremendous leader that he is. Eric, for all you've given to our company and to the industry, we thank you.

我們感謝他的遠見和智慧、他的勇氣和他的紀律，帶領這家公司取得了無與倫比的表現。多年來，他為業內許多人，特別是 MAA 執行領導團隊和我提供的指導和建議，充分體現了他作為傑出領導者的風範。埃里克，我們感謝您為我們公司和行業做出的貢獻。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給提姆。

Thanks, Brad. And good morning, everyone.

謝謝，布拉德。大家早安。

As notified Brad, in the fourth quarter, we prioritize achieving portfolio level occupancy that positions us well for the improving supply and demand dynamic in 2025. We particularly focused on the higher exposure markets, which came at the expense of slightly weaker new lease pricing performance but achieved the occupancy goals for which we were striving.

正如布拉德所通知的那樣，在第四季度，我們的優先事項是實現投資組合層級的入住率，這為我們在 2025 年改善供需動態做好準備。我們特別關注曝光率較高的市場，儘管新租賃定價表現略弱，但卻實現了我們所追求的入住率目標。

The moderation of new lease pricing showed less seasonal deceleration than we saw in 2023 and less than we typically see from the third to fourth quarter. As a result of this strategy, new lease pricing on a lease over lease basis for the fourth quarter was down 8%. A 260-basis point decline from the third quarter, but favorably comparable to a 470 basis point decline over the same period in 2023.

新租賃價格的放緩顯示季節性減速的趨勢比 2023 年要小，也比我們通常看到的第三季至第四季要小。由於採取此策略，第四季的新租賃價格以租賃價格計算下降了 8%。較第三季下降 260 個基點，但與 2023 年同期 470 個基點的降幅相比仍有所下降。

Renewal rates for the quarter stayed strong, growing 4.2% on a lease over lease basis, which was a 10-basis point increase sequentially over the third quarter. The resulting lease over lease pricing on a blended basis was down 2%, which represented a 140-basis point improvement in sequential moderation as compared to the same period in 2023.

本季的續約率保持強勁，租賃年增 4.2%，比第三季季增 10 個基點。以混合基礎計算的租賃定價下降了 2%，與 2023 年同期相比，連續緩和了 140 個基點。

Average physical occupancy was 95.6% of 10 basis points from the third quarter. And collections continue to outperform expectations with net delinquency representing just 0.3% of build rents. All these factors drive the resulting same store revenue down 0.2% for the quarter and up 0.5% for the full year of 2024.

平均實體入住率為 95.6%，較第三季上升 10 個基點。收款表現持續超出預期，淨拖欠率僅佔建築租金的 0.3%。所有這些因素導致本季同店營收下降 0.2%，2024 年全年同店營收成長 0.5%。

As was true for most of 2024, several of our mid-tier markets continued to hold up better than the broader portfolio in the fourth quarter from a blended lease of release pricing standpoint. Richmond, Norfolk, Charleston, Greenville, and our Fredericksburg and other Northern Virginia properties all stood out. Tampa and Orlando are two larger markets that started to show some relative pricing recovery. Also, as was true for most of 2024, Austin, Atlanta, and Jacksonville are markets that continue to be more negatively impacted by the absolute level of supply being delivered into those markets with Austin continuing to be the toughest challenge of all the markets.

與 2024 年的大部分時間一樣，從混合租賃發行定價的角度來看，我們的幾個中端市場在第四季度的表現繼續優於更廣泛的投資組合。里士滿、諾福克、查爾斯頓、格林維爾以及我們位於弗雷德里克斯堡和其他北維吉尼亞州的飯店都表現優異。坦帕和奧蘭多是兩個較大的市場，開始出現一些相對的價格回升。此外，與 2024 年的大部分時間一樣，奧斯汀、亞特蘭大和傑克遜維爾的市場繼續受到這些市場的絕對供應水平的負面影響，而奧斯汀仍然是所有市場中最嚴峻的挑戰。

We continued our various redevelopment and repositioning initiatives in the fourth quarter. And as Brad mentioned earlier, we expect to accelerate these programs over the course of 2025, it ends in 2026.

我們在第四季持續進行各種重建和重新定位措施。正如布拉德之前提到的，我們預計將在 2025 年加速這些項目，並於 2026 年結束。

For the fourth quarter of 2024, we completed 1,130 interior unit upgrades, bringing our year-to-date total to 5,665 units, achieving rent increases of $106 above non-upgraded units. Despite this more competitive supply environment, these units lease about 10 days quicker on average than a non-renovated unit when adjusted for the additional turn time. We expect to renovate closer to 6,000 units in 2025 with an even larger increase expected in 2026.

2024 年第四季度，我們完成了 1,130 個室內單元的升級，使年初至今的升級總數達到 5,665 個單元，租金比未升級單元高出 106 美元。儘管供應環境競爭更加激烈，但經過額外周轉時間調整後，這些單位的租賃速度比未裝修單位平均快 10 天左右。我們預計，2025 年翻新的單位將接近 6,000 套，而 2026 年預計翻新的單位數量將進一步增加。

For our repositioning program, we have 2 active projects that they're most of the way through the repricing phase with NOI yields of approaching 10%. We have an additional 6 projects underway with a plan to complete construction between April and June and begin repricing in what we believe will be a strengthening leasing environment. We're also now live on the four property-wide Wifi retrofit projects we began in 2024 and expect to begin an additional 23 projects in 2025.

對於我們的重新定位計劃，我們有 2 個活躍項目，它們大部分都處於重新定價階段，NOI 收益率接近 10%。我們還有另外 6 個項目正在進行中，計劃在 4 月至 6 月之間完成建設，並在我們認為將會加強的租賃環境中開始重新定價。我們還正在實施 2024 年開始的四個覆蓋整個酒店的 Wifi 改造項目，並預計在 2025 年開始另外 23 個項目。

With January wrapped up, we're seeing encouraging trends that are aligned with our outlook for 2025. New lease and blended pricing in January improved as compared to both December and the full fourth quarter with stable occupancy of 95.6%. Our 60-day exposure at the end of January was 7% -- 70 basis points lower than this time last year and should serve to keep occupancy stable through the remainder of the quarter and allow for more pricing power if seasonal demand starts to increase. The 95.6% January average daily physical occupancy was 25 basis points higher than January of 2024.

隨著一月份的結束，我們看到了與我們對 2025 年的展望一致的令人鼓舞的趨勢。1 月新租賃和混合價格與 12 月和整個第四季相比有所改善，入住率穩定在 95.6%。我們 1 月底的 60 天風險敞口為 7%，比去年同期低 70 個基點，這將有助於在本季度剩餘時間內保持入住率穩定，並且在季節性需求開始增加時能夠擁有更大的定價能力。1 月平均每日實際入住率為 95.6%，比 2024 年 1 月高出 25 個基點。

As Brad noted, absorption remains strong in our markets, with the fourth quarter representing the second consecutive quarter that units absorbed exceeded units delivered. The excess absorption is compared to new supply in the 4th quarter with the largest GAAP since the third quarter of 2021.

正如布拉德所說，我們市場的吸收能力依然強勁，第四季是連續第二季吸收量超過交付量。與第四季的新增供應相比，超額吸收量創下了 2021 年第三季以來的 GAAP 最高水準。

With new lease pricing improving, the remaining a challenge, we're also encouraged by the lease over lease rates achieved on excessive renewals through April with the average increases in the 4.25% range. Improving new lease rates should help support continued strong renewal performance into the busier spring and summer leasing season.

隨著新租賃價格的改善，剩下的挑戰，我們也對截至 4 月過度續約所實現的租賃利率感到鼓舞，平均增幅約為 4.25%。新租賃率的提高將有助於支持租賃公司在繁忙的春季和夏季租賃季節繼續保持強勁的續約表現。

New supply deliveries continue to be a headwind in many of our markets, but the trends support expected improvement throughout 2025, laying the groundwork for an even stronger 2026. Following on Eric's comments, with construction starts peaking in mid to late 2022 in most of our markets, we believe we have passed the maximum pricing pressure period that tends to come two years or so after the peak of construction. So slowly moderating supply pressure, increasing spring and summer releasing traffic and our current occupancy exposure portfolio position have us excited about the recovery to come.

在我們的許多市場中，新供應交付繼續面臨阻力，但趨勢支持 2025 年全年的預期改善，為 2026 年更強勁的勢頭奠定基礎。根據 Eric 的評論，由於我們大多數市場的建築開工量在 2022 年中後期達到頂峰，我們認為我們已經度過了往往在建築高峰後兩年左右出現的最大定價壓力期。因此，緩慢緩解供應壓力、增加春季和夏季的釋放流量以及我們目前的入住率組合狀況讓我們對即將到來的復甦感到興奮。

That's all I have for prepared comments and will now turn the call over to Clay.

這就是我準備好的所有評論，現在我將把發言權交給克萊。

Thank you, Tim. And good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，提姆。大家早安。

We reported core FFO for the quarter of $2.23 per share, which was in line with our fourth-quarter guidance and contributed a core FFO for the full year of $8.88 per share, in line with our original guidance for the year.

我們報告本季核心 FFO 為每股 2.23 美元，與我們的第四季度指引一致，全年核心 FFO 為每股 8.88 美元，與我們最初的年度指引一致。

Our same store revenue results for the quarter were relatively in line with expectations. As Tim mentioned, same store revenues benefited from strong occupancy and collections during the quarter. Our same store expense performance was slightly unfavorable compared to our guidance due to personnel costs and other property expenses. Favorable interest expense and non-operating income offset the increase in same store expenses.

我們本季的同店營收結果相對符合預期。正如蒂姆所提到的，同店收入受益於本季強勁的入住率和收款率。由於人員成本和其他財產費用，我們的同店費用表現與我們的預期相比略有不利。有利的利息支出和非營業收入抵消了同店支出的增加。

During the quarter, we funded approximately $64 million to develop the cost of the current $852 million dollar pipeline, leaving an expected $374 million to be funded on our current pipeline over the next 2 to 3 years. We also invested approximately $18 million of capital through our redevelopment and repositioning programs during the quarter, which we expect to continue to enhance the quality of our portfolio and produce solid returns upon completion.

在本季度，我們已撥款約 6,400 萬美元用於開發目前價值 8.52 億美元的管道成本，預計未來 2 至 3 年內我們將為現有管道撥款 3.74 億美元。我們還在本季度透過重建和重新定位計劃投資了約 1800 萬美元的資金，我們預計這將繼續提高我們投資組合的質量，並在完成後產生可觀的回報。

Our balance sheet remains in great shape. We ended the quarter with over $1 billion in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility, providing significant opportunity to fund future investments. Our leverage remains low, with net debt to EBITDA at 4 times. And at quarter end, our outstanding debt was approximately 95% fixed with an average maturity of 7.3 years at an effective rate of 3.8%.

我們的資產負債表依然狀況良好。截至本季末，我們的循環信貸安排下的現金和借貸能力合計超過 10 億美元，為未來投資提供資金提供了重要機會。我們的槓桿率仍然很低，淨負債與 EBITDA 的比率為 4 倍。截至季末，我們的未償債務約 95% 固定，平均期限為 7.3 年，實際利率為 3.8%。

During December, we issued $350 million of 10-year public bonds at an effective rate of just over 5% using proceeds to pay down our outstanding commercial paper. These proceeds provide an accreted use of capital given the expected stabilized NOI yields approaching 6% or greater on our recent acquisitions and current developments that Brad previously mentioned.

12 月份，我們發行了 3.5 億美元的 10 年期公債，實際利率略高於 5%，並用所得款項償還未償還的商業票據。鑑於我們最近的收購和 Brad 之前提到的當前發展，預期穩定的淨營運收入收益率接近 6% 或更高，這些收益提供了累積的資本使用。

Finally, we provided initial earnings guidance for 2025 with our release, which is detailed in the supplemental information package.

最後，我們在發布中提供了 2025 年的初步盈利指引，該指引在補充資訊包中有詳細說明。

Core FFO for 2025 is projected to be at $8.61 to $8.93 or $8.77 at the midpoint. As has been outlined in the prior comments, we expect the momentum and rental pricing to grow over the course of the year and to drive improving year-over-year performance and core FFO over the back half of the year.

預計 2025 年核心 FFO 為 8.61 美元至 8.93 美元，或中間值為 8.77 美元。正如先前的評論中所概述的，我們預計，這一勢頭和租金價格將在今年內增長，並推動下半年同比業績和核心 FFO 的改善。

The proposed 2025 same store revenue growth midpoint of 0.4% results from a rental pricing earning of negative 0.4% combined with a blended rental pricing expectation of 1.7% for the year. We expect blended rental pricing to be comprised of new lease pricing that will continue to be impacted by elevated supply levels and renewal pricing in line with historical levels. We expect the impact of these elevated supply levels to improve over the course of the year.

預計 2025 年同店營收成長中位數為 0.4%，這是由租金定價收益為負 0.4% 加上全年綜合租金定價預期 1.7% 所致。我們預計混合租賃定價將由新租賃定價組成，而新租賃定價將繼續受到供應水準上升和續約定價的影響，與歷史水準保持一致。我們預計，供應水準上升的影響將在今年內得到改善。

For the same store portfolio, we expect effective rate growth for the year to be approximately 0.2% at the midpoint of our range. Occupancy to average between 95.3% and 95.9% for the year or 95.6% at the midpoint, and other revenue items, primarily reimbursement and fee income to grow at 2.5%.

對於同店組合，我們預計今年的實際利率成長率約為 0.2%，處於我們範圍的中點。全年平均入住率在 95.3% 至 95.9% 之間，或中間值為 95.6%，其他收入項目（主要是報銷和費用收入）將增加 2.5%。

Same store operating expenses are projected to grow at a midpoint of 3.2% for the year. Personnel and repair and maintenance costs are expected to grow just over 3%, while expect some continued pressure for marketing costs and insurance expense. These expense projections combined with the revenue growth of 0.4%, results in a projected decline in things to NOI of 1.15% at the midpoint.

預計今年同店營業費用中位數成長率為3.2%。預計人員和維修維護成本將增加3%多一點，同時預計行銷成本和保險費用將繼續承受壓力。這些費用預測與 0.4% 的收入成長相結合，預計中間值將下降至 1.15% 的 NOI。

We currently have 9 communities actively leasing and an additional community that stabilized in late 2024. Given the interest carrying and leasing velocity of these recently acquired and completed developments, we anticipate our lease of pipeline being slightly diluted to core FFO in the first half of the year before turning to creative later in the year as more projects stabilize, contributing about $0.03 to core FFO for the year, net of the interest carry.

我們目前有 9 個社區正在積極租賃，另有一個社區將於 2024 年底穩定下來。考慮到這些近期收購和完成的開發項目的利息和租賃速度，我們預計，我們的租賃管道將在今年上半年略微稀釋核心 FFO，然後隨著更多項目的穩定，在今年晚些時候轉向創造性，為全年核心 FFO 貢獻約 0.03 美元，扣除利息後。

We expect continued external growth in 2025, both through acquisitions and developments. We anticipate a range of $350 million to $450 million in acquisitions, all likely to be in lease up and not yet stabilized, and a range of $250 to $350 million in development investments for the year. This growth we've partially funded by asset sales, which we expect this positions of approximately $325 million with the remainder to be funded by debt financing and internal cash flow. This external growth is expected to be slightly diluted with the CO FFO in 2025 and then turn a created the CO FFO after stabilization.

我們預計 2025 年將透過收購和開發繼續實現外部成長。我們預計今年的收購金額將在 3.5 億至 4.5 億美元之間，這些收購可能都處於租賃階段且尚未穩定下來，而開發投資金額將在 2.5 億至 3.5 億美元之間。這一成長部分由資產出售提供資金，我們預計該資金約為 3.25 億美元，剩餘部分將由債務融資和內部現金流提供資金。預計這種外部增長將在 2025 年隨著 CO FFO 略微稀釋，並在穩定後轉為創造 CO FFO。

We project total overhead expenses, a combination of property management expenses and GNA expenses, to be $134.5 million at the midpoint, a 4.5% increase over 2024 results. We also expect to refinance $400 million in bonds maturing in November 2025. These bonds have an effective rate of 4.2%, and we are forecasting to refinance at 5%.

我們預計總管理費用（物業管理費用和 GNA 費用的總和）中間值為 1.345 億美元，比 2024 年的結果增加 4.5%。我們也預計將為 2025 年 11 月到期的 4 億美元債券進行再融資。這些債券的有效利率為 4.2%，我們預計以 5% 的利率進行再融資。

This anticipated refinancing coupled with our 2024 refinancing activities will result in three senses of dilution to core FFO as compared to prior year. Combined with financing to support our expected growth for 2025, we project interest expense to increase by approximately 13% for the year.

此次預期的再融資加上我們 2024 年的再融資活動將導致核心 FFO 與前一年相比出現三種稀釋。結合支持我們 2025 年預期成長的融資，我們預計今年的利息支出將增加約 13%。

That is all that we have in the way of prepared comments, so we will now turn the call back to you for any questions.

這就是我們準備好的全部評論，因此現在我們將把電話轉給您以回答您的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

Great, thanks for taking the question.

太好了，謝謝您回答這個問題。

I was hoping you could put a finer point on the 1.7% blend outlook for 2025. Can you talk exactly about what you're thinking for new versus renewal? And then is there a point in the year where you think new spreads actually turned positive? And maybe talk a little bit more about the cadence throughout the year of that 1.7%?

我希望您能對 2025 年 1.7% 的混合前景做出更詳細的說明。能具體談談您對「新」與「更新」的看法嗎？您認為今年的某個時候新的利差實際上會變成正值嗎？或許您可以再多談談全年 1.7% 的節奏嗎？

Yes. This is Tim. I'll give a little bit of detail on the guidance the pricing guidance.

是的。這是蒂姆。我將對定價指導提供一些詳細的說明。

So for the year, we're expecting new lease pricing on a lease over lease basis, somewhere in the negative 1.5% range, with that obviously playing out seasonally with the lowest point where we are right now, getting slightly positive as we get into Q3 and then starting to trend back down seasonally a little bit as we get into Q4.

因此，就今年而言，我們預計新租賃價格在租賃基礎上將在-1.5％的範圍內，顯然，這個價格會受到季節性的影響，目前是最低點，進入第三季度時會略微呈正增長趨勢，然後，隨著進入第四季度，價格會開始呈現季節性回落趨勢。

And then renewals, pretty steady in that 4.25%, 4.4% range where we are right now. We don't expect much movement there. That tends to stay pretty consistent. So, it's the new lease pricing that drives the variance throughout the quarters.

然後續約率，目前相當穩定地保持在 4.25% 到 4.4% 的範圍內。我們預計那裡不會發生太大的動靜。這種趨勢往往保持相當一致。因此，新的租賃定價導致了整個季度的差異。

Okay. And sorry, did you -- do you think you'll see any months or quarters with positive new release?

好的。抱歉，您認為會在任何月份或季度看到積極的新產品發布嗎？

Yes. I would say as you get into typically what we see, if you think about normal seasonality is new lease pricing sort of accelerating January through to about July and then starting to moderate as you get into August. So I would expect as we get into late Q2, early Q3, we expect to have two or three months where we'll be slightly positive on the new lease rate and then trend back down to negative as you get into late Q3 and into Q4.

是的。我想說的是，正如我們所看到的，如果您考慮正常的季節性，新的租賃定價會在 1 月到 7 月左右加速，然後到 8 月開始放緩。因此，我預計，隨著我們進入第二季末和第三季初，預計新租賃利率將有兩個或三個月略微呈正成長趨勢，然後隨著進入第三季末和第四季度，趨勢將回落至負值。

Okay and then what are you guys thinking on turnover? How does that trend throughout the year?

好的，那你們對於營業額有什麼看法？全年趨勢如何？

Expecting pretty consistent with where we were in 2024. The major reasons people move out, obviously buy a home, job change, those are the buy a home is down, I think 20% in Q4 compared to where it was last year. With interest rates and home prices where they are, we don't expect that to move a lot. And so we -- and generally, we're dialing into our forecast renewal or turnover consistent with where we were in 2024.

預計與 2024 年的情況相當一致。人們搬出去的主要原因顯然是買房、換工作，這些都是買房數量下降的原因，我認為第四季的買房數量與去年相比下降了 20%。鑑於利率和房價的現狀，我們預計不會有太大波動。因此，我們 — — 整體而言，我們對更新或營業額的預測與 2024 年的水準一致。

Okay, great. Thanks for the color. And Eric, congratulations again.

好的，太好了。謝謝你的顏色。艾瑞克，再次向你表示祝賀。

Eric Wolfe, Citi.

花旗銀行的艾瑞克‧沃爾夫 (Eric Wolfe)。

Hey, I just wanted to follow up there, I mean, when I look at the contribution to your same sort of revenue from the 1.7% blend, it looks like it's sort of on the lower end, which suggests that there's probably a good back half waiting to the blended spread.

嘿，我只是想跟進一下，我的意思是，當我查看 1.7% 混合物對您的同類收入的貢獻時，它看起來似乎處於較低水平，這表明可能有一大半的收入在等待混合價差。

So, I was just curious if that's the case, if you could just maybe provide like, you expect the first half to be in like a 0.5% range and then it's a step up to over 2.5%, or if the difference is really just seasonally. Like you just think the seasonally, the second quarter and third quarter will be a sort of a very normal lift. I'm just trying to understand that this is like a sort of a back half type of prediction for this year.

所以，我只是好奇如果情況確實如此，您是否可以提供一些信息，例如，您預計上半年的增長幅度會在 0.5% 左右，然後上升到 2.5% 以上，或者差異是否真的只是季節性的。就像您認為的季節性一樣，第二季和第三季將是一種非常正常的成長。我只是想知道這是否是對今年後半段的預測。

Not necessarily a back half prediction. I mean, we expect the normal seasonality as I was talking about and certainly for new lease rates to moderate as you get late Q3 and into Q4. So, it's really another thing to keep in mind, obviously, when you think about mid Q2, early Q3, we also have the bulk of our leases expiring during that time. So, matching up some of the more positive new lease rates with the maximum number of leases is really what drives that waiting. But as I mentioned, we expect to get slightly positive call to the one to 1.25 range for a couple of months in the middle of the year and then start to trend back down. So, it's the combination of the weighting of the lease expirations and then obviously the balance between new lease and renewals. We expect renewals will be a heavier weighting as they were this year with consistent turnover. So, that's really what's driving the full year number.

不一定是後半部的預測。我的意思是，正如我所說的，我們預計正常的季節性，而且隨著第三季末和第四季的到來，新的租賃率肯定會趨於緩和。因此，需要牢記的另一件事顯然是，當您想到第二季中期、第三季初時，我們的大部分租約也將在此期間到期。因此，將一些較積極的新租賃率與最大租賃數量相匹配才是真正推動這種等待的原因。但正如我所提到的那樣，我們預計今年年中幾個月內該匯率將略微上漲至 1 至 1.25 的區間，然後開始回落。因此，這是租約到選擇權重與新租約和續約之間的平衡的組合。我們預計，續約將佔比更大，因為今年的營業額較穩定。所以，這才是真正推動全年數字的因素。

Eric, this is Brad. I'll just -- I'll add one additional item to that.

艾瑞克，這是布拉德。我只是──我要補充一點。

Certainly, if you look at the supply and the new deliveries as we get into this year, I mean, as we look back, the new supply that was started in 2023, clearly there was a drop off in that new supply in the back half of 2023, which we think, really informs the supply pressure as we get into 2025. So as we mentioned in our comments, we are in still an elevated level of supply. Today, we're off the peak of where we have been in 2024, and that supply fixture will continue to get better as we go throughout this year.

當然，如果你看看今年的供應量和新交付量，我的意思是，回顧一下 2023 年開始的新供應量，顯然 2023 年下半年的新供應量有所下降，我們認為，這確實說明了我們進入 2025 年時的供應壓力。正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，我們的供應水平仍然較高。今天，我們已經走出了 2024 年的巔峰，隨著今年的到來，供應情況將繼續好轉。

So to Tim's point, as you start layering on top of diminishing supply pressure environment as we go through the year with the demand that continues to pick up as we get into the spring and summer leasing season, that really starts to inform the trajectory of what we think the lease rates will look like through the year.

因此，正如蒂姆所說，隨著我們進入春季和夏季租賃季節，需求持續回升，隨著供應壓力環境的減少，你開始在這一年中逐漸增加，這真正開始影響我們對租賃利率全年走勢的預測。

And I'm not sure if you have this data, but when you look at your renewals, what percent of those renewals are also tenants that renewed the prior year? I guess I'm trying to understand sort of what percentage of tenants are taking two years of this sort of 4% to 5% renewal increases in sort of a flattish market rate environment and if you have any sort of limit on where renewal rate rents can be relative to market or new lease rents.

我不確定您是否有這些數據，但是當您查看續約情況時，其中有多少百分比的續約租戶也是去年續約的租戶？我想了解的是，在市場利率趨於平穩的環境下，有多少比例的租戶願意接受兩年內 4% 到 5% 的續約租金增長，以及續約租金相對於市場租金或新租約租金的比例是否有任何限制。

Well, we have another way to, perhaps, characterize that is our average stay is somewhere in the 21, 22-month range. That certainly is extended out a little bit over the last couple of years with the lower turnover. So typically, you have a resident moves in, has called a 12-month lease, and then does one renewal, and then on average they're moving out after that first renewal. So typically, don't see renewal on top of renewal on top of renewal, which tends to be a little bit of a governor on that gap getting too wide. Even with lower turnover, we're still turning a good chunk of the portfolio every year and so it tends to balance itself out a little bit.

嗯，也許我們還有另一種方式來描述這一點，那就是我們的平均停留時間在 21 到 22 個月之間。過去幾年，隨著營業額較低，這種情況肯定有所延長。通常情況下，住戶搬進來，簽訂 12 個月的租約，然後進行一次續約，然後平均而言，他們會在第一次續約後搬出去。因此通常情況下，不會看到更新之上再更新，這往往會對差距過大造成一些影響。即使周轉率較低，我們每年仍會週轉很大一部分投資組合，因此它往往會稍微平衡一點。

And then to Brad's point about strengthening supply and demand dynamic, we expect new lease rates to accelerate throughout the year, which then should in turn help the renewal rates where it's starting to narrow that gap, and it doesn't gap any wider than it has been so I think that will provide some stability and strength on the renewal side also.

然後關於布拉德關於加強供需動態的觀點，我們預計新的租賃率將在全年加速，這反過來將有助於續約率，從而開始縮小差距，並且差距不會比以前更大，所以我認為這也將為續約方面提供一些穩定性和實力。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

加拿大豐業銀行的 Nick Yulico。

Good morning, everyone. It's Daniel Tricarico. I'm with Nick.

大家早安。我是丹尼爾·特里卡里科。我和尼克在一起。

Can you help us understand how concessions in your markets have impacted your new lease rate figures and if you see the dissipation of concessionary activity and these your comps maybe having a -- to use your word compounding effect on the reported numbers.

您能否幫助我們了解您所在市場的優惠政策對新租賃價格數據有何影響？

Yeah, I mean, to answer the last part of that, the lease over lease rates we quote are net of the impact of concessions, so that's considered in there. But I would say broadly, for us, for our portfolio, concessions were down a little bit in Q4 as compared to Q3 in terms of cash concessions, I would say at a market-wide portfolio level, concessions were pretty consistent, around a month free is pretty typical in most markets.

是的，我的意思是，回答最後一部分，我們引用的租賃費率是扣除優惠影響後的淨租賃費率，因此這一點也考慮在內。但我想說，總體而言，對於我們來說，對於我們的投資組合來說，第四季度的現金優惠與第三季度相比略有下降，我想說，在整個市場投資組合層面，優惠是相當一致的，在大多數市場，大約一個月的免費是相當典型的。

Now, you get into some of the tougher markets with a lot of lease up, and it's some of the same submarkets I've talked about before, you think about downtown Austin and then Round Rock, Georgetown area of Austin, you think about Midtown Atlanta, you think about Uptown Charlotte. That's where you can get more into the 2, 2.5, even up to 3 in a couple of spots with a lot of lease up. So still pressure there, some of the markets we've talked about, but the concession pressure overall is steady to perhaps slightly declining.

現在，您進入一些租賃情況較差的市場，它們都是我之前談到過的一些相同的子市場，您會想到奧斯汀市中心，然後是朗德羅克、奧斯汀的喬治城地區，您會想到亞特蘭大中城，您會想到夏洛特上城區。在那裡，您可以獲得更多 2、2.5，甚至在幾個有大量租賃的地方獲得高達 3 的收益。因此，我們談到的一些市場仍然存在壓力，但總體而言，特許壓力保持穩定，甚至可能略有下降。

Great, thanks for that.

太好了，謝謝。

And then I guess as a follow up, do you have a sense on I guess how much competitive supply that you guys track is how much that is declining year over year in '26 and '27, and maybe how that compares on a like a completion as a percentage stock basis to, maybe the prior years to 2020.

然後我想作為後續問題，您是否知道，您追蹤的競爭性供應量在 26 年和 27 年同比下降了多少，以及與 2020 年前的百分比庫存基礎相比，完成情況如何。

Yeah. I mean, for 2025, we think supplies is probably down 15% to 20% in terms of just absolute units being delivered from '24 to '25. It's probably we think it's down closer 30% to 40% as you look out into the 2026. And then you know you start getting pretty far out at that point, but if you look at the starts and Eric hit on this as well, I mean starts are down. Q4 of 2024 starts in our market where 0.3% of inventory, which is the lowest it's been for the last several years, well below where it was even during COVID. So, it speaks to a pretty long window where we think supply will be moderating.

是的。我的意思是，對於 2025 年，我們認為僅就 2024 年至 2025 年交付的絕對單位而言，供應量可能會下降 15% 至 20%。我們認為，到 2026 年，這一數字可能會下降 30% 至 40%。然後你知道你在那時開始走得相當遠，但如果你看看開始，埃里克也擊中了這一點，我的意思是開始下降了。2024 年第四季開始時，我們市場的庫存率為 0.3%，這是過去幾年的最低水平，甚至遠低於 COVID 期間的水平。所以，我們認為，這說明在一段相當長的時間內，供應將會放緩。

But like on a completions as a percent of stock like in '26 is that like lower than a normal year?

但是，就 26 年的完工率而言，這是否低於正常年份？

Yeah. I would say in our markets, 3.5% of inventory is probably about average, if you think about the long term, 3.5%. We've certainly been above that the last few years, but I think 25% or 26% is below that. And I expect 2027 - 2026 is below that, and I expect 2027 is even further below that.

是的。我想說，在我們的市場中，3.5% 的庫存大概是平均水平，如果考慮長期的話，則是 3.5%。過去幾年我們的這一比例肯定高於這個數字，但我認為 25% 或 26% 低於這個數字。我預計 2027 年至 2026 年的數據將低於這一水平，而我預計 2027 年的數據將進一步低於這一水平。

Great, thanks. And congratulations, Eric.

太好了，謝謝。祝賀你，埃里克。

Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets. Your line is opened.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的布拉德‧赫弗恩 (Brad Heffern)。您的線路已開通。

Yeah, thanks. Morning, everyone.

是的，謝謝。大家早安。

You've talked a few times about the start of the year being better than normal. I think you said in the prepared remarks that blends are improving more than normal in January on a sequential basis, those are obviously very influenced by comps. So, I'm just curious if you're seeing like a real market level fundamental inflection, market rent trend being better than normal, occupancy rising, you kind of talked about concessions maybe getting a little bit better. Just trying to figure out how much of that is sort of just comps and the abnormality of where leasing spreads are right now versus like a real fundamental exchange.

您曾多次談到今年年初的情況比往年好。我記得您在準備好的評論中說過，1 月份混合物的環比改善幅度超過正常水平，這顯然受到了同類產品的影響。所以，我只是好奇，您是否看到了真正的市場水平基本拐點，市場租金趨勢好於正常水平，入住率上升，您談到的優惠可能會變得更好一些。只是想弄清楚其中有多少只是可比較價格，以及目前租賃價差與實際基本交易所相比的異常情況。

Well, I mean, it's a combination of all of those. Certainly, the lessening supply, I think, is playing a part of that, easier comps, if you will, is playing a part of that. But when we think about the sequential trends, we're seeing in January both compared to December and Q4 and not just looking back to the last year or two, but looking back to, what we would call more normal periods, which probably is going back to 2017, 2018, 2019.

嗯，我的意思是，這是所有這些的結合。當然，我認為，供應減少是其中的一部分原因，如果你願意的話，更容易的比較也是其中的一部分原因。但是，當我們考慮連續趨勢時，我們會看到 1 月份與 12 月和第四季度相比，不僅回顧過去一兩年，而且回顧我們所說的更正常時期，這可能是 2017 年、2018 年、2019 年。

The deceleration from Q3 to Q4 was sort of less than typical. And then the acceleration from Q4 to January was more so and so much where January. new lease pricing is better than the than the full Q4, which is pretty atypical. We usually see it's usually a little bit lower than Q4, and then we would expect February, March to accelerate even more. So, I feel like it's a good position to where we are and showing some, I think, real strength in the recovery. So, I think that piece is probably tied to just an improving overall outlook, the higher than typical acceleration.

從第三季到第四季的減速有點低於典型。然後從第四季到一月的加速就更加明顯了，一月份的加速也更大了。新的租賃定價比整個第四季的定價要好，這是相當不典型的。我們通常會看到它比第四季略低，然後我們預計 2 月和 3 月的成長速度會更快。所以，我覺得我們現在處於一個很好的位置，我認為，顯示出復甦的真正實力。所以，我認為這可能與整體前景的改善、高於典型加速度有關。

Okay, thanks for that.

好的，謝謝。

And then can you talk through whether you think changes in immigration policy could have a significant impact on the portfolio either through deportations or just through less immigration.

然後，您能否談談您是否認為移民政策的變化會透過驅逐出境或減少移民對投資組合產生重大影響。

Yeah, hey, this is Brad.

是的，嘿，這是布拉德。

I would say from the same store perspective, we don't see a whole lot of impact coming from the change in the immigration policies. I mean, there's nothing that we track that would indicate that we're really overly exposed to any type of the immigration issues that we see out there. So, from a labor perspective in our same store portfolio, we don't see that being a big impact in terms from a resident perspective again. No matter which metric we're looking at, we don't see that we're exposed to a large degree to that.

我想說，從同一家商店的角度來看，我們不會看到移民政策的改變帶來太大的影響。我的意思是，我們所追蹤的任何資訊都不足以表明我們過度暴露於我們所看到的任何類型的移民問題。因此，從我們同店組合的勞動力角度來看，我們認為這不會對居民的角度產生很大的影響。無論我們看哪個指標，我們都不會發現自己受到太大的影響。

Now, having said that, where I think we could see some impact associated with the immigration side would be on, perhaps in the new development area where a lot of the labor in that area, there could be some labor impact associated with that and clearly that would have an impact on the ability of the market really to ramp up new construction. For us, obviously, that would impact our desire to continue to hold our new developments at the billion-dollar level that we're talking about. But given the overall size of our existing. portfolio, anything that slows down supply longer term would be a benefit to our existing portfolio. But at this point, it's something that we'll have to continue to monitor and see how it how it plays out, but we're not seeing a material impact and don't see that on the horizon at the moment.

現在，話雖如此，我認為我們可以看到與移民方面相關的一些影響，也許在新開發區，該地區有大量勞動力，可能會產生一些與此相關的勞動力影響，顯然這將對市場真正增加新建設的能力產生影響。對我們來說，這顯然會影響我們繼續將新開發項目保持在我們所談論的十億美元水平的願望。但考慮到我們現有的整體規模。投資組合，任何能夠長期減緩供應的事情都會對我們現有的投資組合有益。但目前，我們必須繼續監控並觀察其如何發展，但我們尚未看到實質影響，目前也看不到這種跡象。

Okay, thanks for the thought.

好的，謝謝你的想法。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Your line is opened.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的傑夫·斯佩克特（Jeff Spector）。您的線路已開通。

Great, thank you. Just to follow up to that, I was going to ask a similar question, but maybe even just pulling in demographics when you think about your portfolio positioning third A, third B plus third B, and then you're split between urban suburban, I guess from a high-level, long-term standpoint, 5-year view. Does any of this change your thinking on portfolio positioning?

太好了，謝謝。為了跟進這一點，我本來要問一個類似的問題，但也許甚至只是拉進人口統計數據，當你考慮你的投資組合定位第三個 A，第三個 B 加上第三個 B，然後你在城市郊區之間分配，我想從高層次、長期的角度來看，5 年期的觀點。這些是否會改變您對投資組合定位的想法？

Yeah, this is Brad. Tim, you can add some points here too.

是的，這是布拉德。提姆，你也可以在這裡補充一些觀點。

But I don't think so. I mean, one of the characteristics of our portfolio long term is definitely to orient our portfolio toward the highest demand region of the country, that generally leads to lower volatility in both earnings and dividends performance. And so we think that continues to be the right focus for us in terms of where we're located, the markets we're located in, and also allocating capital mixed between larger markets and mid-tier markets. So, that also tends to support kind of a more affordable price point than, other portfolios that are out there.

但我不這麼認為。我的意思是，我們的長期投資組合的一個特點肯定是將我們的投資組合定位到該國需求最高的地區，這通常會導致收益和股息表現的波動性降低。因此，我們認為，就我們的所在地、所在的市場以及在大型市場和中型市場之間混合分配資本而言，這仍然是我們的正確關注點。因此，這也傾向於支持比現有的其他投資組合更實惠的價格點。

And I think if you look at our return over a long period of time, I think that speaks to us appealing to the broadest segment of the rental market, and I think ultimately that's really what we want to do versus skewing the portfolio to one end of the spectrum versus the other. And so, I don't see a material change in terms of our strategy, in terms of how we're allocating capital or those other portfolio characteristics that we target.

我認為，如果從長期來看我們的回報，這說明我們對租賃市場最廣泛的部分具有吸引力，我認為這才是我們真正想要做的，而不是將投資組合偏向光譜的一端而不是另一端。因此，我沒有看到我們的策略、資本分配方式或我們所針對的其他投資組合特徵有重大變化。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

And I apologize if I missed this, but can you talk a little bit more disclose more on CapEx between the acquisitions, dispositions, and maybe what the requirement is today between what you're looking for between development and acquisitions. Thank you.

如果我遺漏了這一點，我深感抱歉，但您能否再多講一下收購、處置之間的資本支出，以及您在開發和收購之間尋求的當前要求是什麼。謝謝。

Yeah, Jeff, this is Brad again.

是的，傑夫，我又是布萊德。

Yeah, so the dispositions that we sold in the fourth quarter, CapEx on those were call it low 6s. And those, I'll tell you on the two that we sold, we had one property in Charlotte that did have a fire during the marketing process, so proceeds were certainly impacted a bit by that.

是的，我們在第四季出售的資產的資本支出是 6 先令以下。我會告訴你我們出售的兩處房產，我們在夏洛特有一處房產在行銷過程中確實發生了火災，因此收益肯定受到了一些影響。

So -- but I will tell you on an after CapEx basis, those properties that we're selling generally are 30-year old assets, so they have higher CapEx needs that we're recycling the capital out of. And then we're redeploying that capital, as I mentioned in my call comments, into acquisitions, generally in lease up, so there's some lease up period associated with them. And then upon reaching stabilization, those yields are close to 6% in terms of what we're achieving.

所以 — — 但我將告訴你，在資本支出之後，我們出售的那些房產通常都是有 30 年歷史的資產，因此它們有更高的資本支出需求，我們正在從中回收資本。然後，正如我在電話評論中提到的那樣，我們將這些資本重新部署到收購中，一般是租賃，因此存在一些相關的租賃期。一旦達到穩定，我們所實現的收益率將接近 6%。

Now, we're able to achieve those yields because we are focusing on properties that are in lease up that are harder for the market to finance, so we're able to get better pricing generally. We're 15% to 20% below current replacement costs on those, so we're able to get a pretty good return on those. The market cap rates in the fourth quarter that we tracked is not a lot of data points. We only tracked 6 projects that ended up closing and the cap rate was around a 551.

現在，我們之所以能夠實現這些收益，是因為我們專注於那些市場融資較難的租賃房產，因此我們通常能夠獲得更好的定價。我們的這些產品的更換成本比目前的更換成本低 15% 到 20%，因此我們能夠獲得相當不錯的回報。我們追蹤的第四季的市場資本化率數據點並不多。我們僅追蹤了 6 個最終完成的項目，資本化率約為 551。

Our developments, the 5 that we invested in '24, those were a 6, call it a 64 NOI yield, so it's a 140-basis point spread to current market cap rates, and we feel that that's a good place for us to continue to focus our capital, in that 6 to 6.5 range on development.

我們的開發項目，即我們在 24 年投資的 5 個項目，其淨營運收益為 6，也就是 64，因此與當前市場資本化利率之間存在 140 個基點的利差，我們認為這對我們來說是一個很好的地方，可以繼續將我們的資本集中在開發項目上，在 6 到 6.5 的範圍內。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

KeyBanc 資本市場部的 Austin Wurschmidt。

Great, thanks. And good morning, everybody.

太好了，謝謝。大家早安。

So, going back to a question earlier about lease over lease pricing expectations and just kind of thinking back to when you started to see pricing pressure in the back half of 2023 and kind of this expectation that absorption of peak deliveries will continue through the first half of this year. Is it fair to assume that you do face easier comps in the back half of the year? You could see concession pricing begin to abate more quickly, which could lead to kind of the even better spread in blended rate growth versus the prior year and that will lead to the acceleration of net year-over-year net effect of rent growth. Is that the right way to think about it?

因此，回到先前關於租賃定價預期的問題，回想一下您開始在 2023 年下半年看到定價壓力的時候，以及對高峰交付的吸收將持續到今年上半年的預期。是否可以公平地假設，你們在下半年確實會面臨更容易的競爭？您可能會看到優惠定價開始更快地減弱，這可能導致混合利率成長與上一年相比出現更好的差距，從而導致租金成長的淨同比淨效應加速。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Hey, Austin, it's Tim. And are you talking about as we get to the back part of 2025 primarily?

嘿，奧斯汀，我是提姆。您主要談論的是 2025 年後期的情況嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yeah, I mean, I definitely think we could see if you want to call it less seasonality as you get into late 2025 because as we talked about, we've got the moderating supply pressure that will continue to speak well on the demand side through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. We did see kind of the peak of that supply pressure late '24. So yeah, I think there's an easier comp component that comes with that. It's where I would expect, we're talking about this less seasonal deceleration that we saw this year. I think we could definitely see that in the back part of 2025 as well.

是的，我的意思是，我確實認為，當進入 2025 年末時，我們可以看到季節性會降低，因為正如我們所討論的那樣，我們的供應壓力正在緩和，這將在 2025 年剩餘時間和 2026 年繼續對需求方面產生積極影響。我們確實看到供應壓力在 24 年末達到頂峰。是的，我認為有一個更簡單的組合組件隨之而來。正如我所料，我們正在談論今年出現的非季節性減速。我認為我們在 2025 年後期也肯定能看到這一點。

And based on the fact that you did negative 0.5% year over year net effective rent growth in the back half of 2024 and the guidance assumes a 20-basis point positive growth this year, I guess when do you expect that net effective to turn positive on a year over year basis?

並且基於您在 2024 年下半年的淨有效租金增長率同比下降 0.5% 且指導意見假設今年將實現 20 個基點的正增長這一事實，我猜您預計淨有效租金何時會同比轉為正增長？

Yeah, I'll say it will probably be towards the middle part of the year by in Q3, mid Q3, and then on into Q4 and beyond.

是的，我認為它可能會出現在今年中期，也就是第三季度，然後是第四季度及以後。

That's helpful and then just last one for me.

這很有幫助，對我來說這只是最後一個。

If you broke out your blended rate growth between the larger markets and your smaller secondary markets, how do those stack up relative to this year versus 2024? Just curious where you're seeing the most improvement between those two buckets, and that's all for me. Thank you.

如果您將較大市場和較小二級市場的混合利率成長進行分解，那麼今年與 2024 年相比有何變化？我只是好奇您認為這兩個桶子之間最大的改進是什麼，對我來說這就是全部了。謝謝。

I mean, I would say we've seen it -- seen that gap narrow a little bit. I mean, the secondary markets or mid-tier, however you want to call it, have outperformed certainly the last couple years with generally lower supply in those markets. But we have seen it start to narrow, particularly the last couple quarters. There's still probably 50 basis points, I call it a pricing difference, but it has narrowed a bit.

我的意思是我想說我們已經看到了——看到差距有所縮小。我的意思是，無論你怎麼稱呼它，二級市場或中端市場在過去幾年的表現肯定優於其他市場，因為這些市場的供應量普遍較低。但我們看到這一差距開始縮小，特別是最近幾季。可能仍存在 50 個基點，我稱之為定價差異，但它已經縮小了一點。

Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

瑞銀的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question.

早安.非常感謝您回答我的問題。

The question's on the return of pricing power, your occupancy levels are elevated, but not necessarily everyone in your markets are in the same position. So, do you see pricing power returning contingency -- contingent on occupancy to improve in competing properties and does this slow down in supplier growth that you're expecting this year support that?

問題在於定價權的回歸，您的入住率有所提高，但不一定您所在市場的每個人都處於相同的地位。那麼，您是否認為定價權的回歸取決於競爭物業的入住率提高，而您預計今年供應商成長放緩是否支持這一點？

Well, certainly the market level I can see plays into it a little bit, you're somewhat at the mercy of what some of your other immediate cops are doing. But when we look at where current I can see is right now, which is 25 to 30 basis points better than it was this time last year. And really looking at exposure which looks out further, and we're in a much better position there. We're pretty confident that certainly over the next few months we're in a good spot with occupancy to where we can particularly to get into the spring, can start to push on that pricing.

嗯，當然我可以看到市場水平對此有一定影響，你在某種程度上取決於其他一些直屬警察的行為。但當我們觀察目前的情況時，我發現它比去年同期好 25 到 30 個基點。而真正從更長遠的角度來看，我們處於更有利的位置。我們非常有信心，在接下來的幾個月裡，我們的入住率將處於一個很好的位置，特別是進入春季，我們可以開始推動這項定價。

But given where we are right now with exposure compared to last year, that's a better spot to be. And then you combine that with declining supply, gives us pretty good confidence that occupancy will stay in the steady range, which is about where we want it. We don't really desire to be at 96%. Somewhere in this 95%, 96% range is about right and where we can start to push on price as we get into the spring and summer.

但考慮到我們目前的曝光率與去年相比有所提高，這是一個更好的位置。然後結合供應量的下降，我們非常有信心入住率將保持在穩定範圍內，這正是我們想要的。我們實際上並不希望達到 96%。95% 到 96% 之間的某個價格是比較合適的，進入春季和夏季後，我們可以開始提高價格。

Got it.

知道了。

And just as a follow up, as you think about new lease rents and how they'll trend through this year, you're going from down 8% today to positive in the third quarter. So, what does that new lease rents look like from the start of the year to peak and how does that maybe compare to historical growth through the year? Thanks.

接下來，當您考慮新的租賃租金以及它們今年的趨勢時，您會發現租金從今天的下降 8% 變為第三季的正值。那麼，從年初到峰值，新的租賃租金情況如何？謝謝。

So, our January new lease rates were negative 7.1, so that's kind of where we're starting. And as we talked about every year that we've seen sort of a normal seasonality, we see that accelerate pretty consistently through to about July. So as I mentioned, as we get to July, we're thinking slightly positive somewhere in the 1%, 1.5% range, so you can kind of do the math on the acceleration that that we're assuming, but that's typical with kind of how the seasonality typically works.

因此，我們一月份的新租賃率為-7.1，這就是我們的起點。正如我們每年所討論的，我們看到了一種正常的季節性，這種季節性一直持續到 7 月左右。正如我所提到的那樣，進入 7 月份，我們預計成長率會略有上升，在 1% 到 1.5% 的範圍內，因此您可以對我們假設的加速度進行計算，但這很典型，符合季節性的典型規律。

How does that compare to like a historically, like the historical year or the historical curve?

這與歷史上的歷史年份或歷史曲線相比如何？

It's certainly historical -- it's a historical curve, so the shape of the curve would look like normal. It's a little bit steeper as you get into the spring and summer based on seasonality combined with declining supply pressure.

這當然是歷史性的——這是一條歷史曲線，因此曲線的形狀看起來很正常。基於季節性因素和供應壓力下降的影響，進入春季和夏季，價格上漲幅度會更大一些。

Got it. Thank you very much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞當克萊默。

Great, thanks for taking the question. And congrats, Eric. All the best going forward.

太好了，謝謝您回答這個問題。恭喜你，埃里克。祝一切順利。

I wanted to ask about the kind of job growth and wage growth assumptions and maybe even just kind of higher-level macro assumptions that you've embedded, I guess out of formally or informally kind of in the guide here.

我想問一下您所嵌入的就業成長和薪資成長假設，甚至可能是更高層次的宏觀假設，我想這些假設都是正式或非正式地包含在這份指南中的。

Yeah, I would say from a macroeconomic standpoint, pretty consistent with what we saw in 2024, so we're expecting, call it 600,000 new jobs in our markets for '25, which would be consistent with what we saw in '24, pretty consistent in terms of the -- in migration that we continue to see household formation, population growth. All the various factors that you've seen, we would expect to stay pretty consistent and certainly be above what we see at the national level with these markets being a little bit higher growth markets and then combined with that, continued low turnover, continue to low move out to buy a home and some of the other reasons. So, macroeconomic, pretty consistent with last year, but with a better supply dynamic.

是的，我想從宏觀經濟的角度來看，這與我們在 2024 年看到的情況非常一致，所以我們預計，25 年我們的市場將新增 60 萬個就業崗位，這與我們在 24 年看到的情況一致，在移民方面我們繼續看到家庭形成和人口增長，因此非常一致。您所看到的所有各種因素，我們預計會保持相當一致，而且肯定高於我們在全國範圍內看到的水平，因為這些市場是增長稍快的市場，再加上持續的低營業額、持續的低購房率和一些其他原因。因此，宏觀經濟與去年基本一致，但供應動態較好。

Great, that's really helpful.

太棒了，這真的很有幫助。

And I think you just mentioned the January new lease number in the prior question or answer, but do you mind just giving that the kind of renewal and blended number for January as well?

我認為您剛才在前面的問題或答案中提到了 1 月份的新租賃數量，但您介意也給出 1 月份的續約和混合數量嗎？

Yeah, so, January new lease negative 7.1%, renewal was 4.6%, and blend was 0.9%.

是的，1 月新租約下降 7.1%，續約下降 4.6%，混合下降 0.9%。

Got it. Appreciate the time, guys. Thank you.

知道了。感謝你們的時間，夥計們。謝謝。

Alexander Goldfarb, Piper Sandler.

亞歷山大·戈德法布，派珀·桑德勒。

Good morning down there. And Eric, Mazeltov, as I say in New York. And Brad, you know that the buck now stops with you, so all the complaining and griping now comes to your desk.

早上好，各位。正如我在紐約所說，還有艾瑞克·馬澤爾托夫。布萊德，你知道現在責任已經落在你身上，所以現在所有的抱怨和牢騷都落在你的頭上。

Two questions. First, as you guys look at cap rates, you mentioned 551, I think to Jeff Spector's question, debt costs are certainly above that. How long do you think people, because not everyone can be an all-cash buyer. So, what is your sense for how long people are tolerating that negative leverage? And is that -- and do you think it's typical with what we -- what you've seen historically when we have periods of negative leverage, or do you think people are willing to wait longer?

兩個問題。首先，當你們看一下資本化率時，你們提到了 551，我認為對於 Jeff Spector 的問題，債務成本肯定高於這個數字。你們還要等多久呢，因為不是每個人都能成為全現金買家。那麼，您認為人們能容忍這種負面槓桿多久呢？您認為這是我們歷史上所見過的負槓桿時期的典型情況嗎？

Yeah, I mean, this is Brad. I think, historically periods of negative leverage have been temporary. I'd say this has probably been one of the longest periods of negative leverage that has occurred. And so what we're seeing a couple of things. One is buyers are buying down their interest rates a bit, which helps the negative leverage some. And then two, I think they are underwriting an assumption of a pretty aggressive recovery in '26 and beyond, and I think that that certainly helps them get more comfortable with what their negative leverage looks like and how quickly they can grow out of that position. So, I think it really depends on what your outlook is and how aggressive you're going to be on the underwriting, but those are two things that we're certainly seeing in the market right now.

是的，我的意思是，這是布拉德。我認為，從歷史上看，負槓桿時期都是暫時的。我想說，這可能是迄今為止最長的負槓桿時期之一。因此我們看到了一些事情。一是買家正在稍微降低利率，對負槓桿有一定的幫助。其次，我認為他們正在承擔 26 年及以後經濟將迅速復甦的假設，我認為這無疑有助於他們更好地了解自己的負面槓桿情況，以及他們能夠多快擺脫這種狀況。所以，我認為這實際上取決於你的觀點以及你在承保方面的積極性，但這是我們目前在市場上看到的兩件事。

And then as you guys underwrite projects whether they're acquisitions or developments, how much of your -- how much of the mass is coming from other income, meaning Wi Fi or cell service or waste or other services, meaning like years ago it was pure rent, but the industry has evolved. So, I'm just sort of curious how much of your yield now comes from things other than rent?

然後，當你們承保專案時，無論是收購還是開發，你們的收入中有多少來自其他收入，也就是 Wi-Fi 或手機服務或廢物或其他服務，這意味著就像幾年前的純粹租金一樣，但這個行業已經發展了。那麼，我只是有點好奇，您現在的收益有多少來自租金以外的其他來源？

It's not much. I mean we -- certainly, the one piece that I think would be probably a bigger component will be with the Wi Fi piece which we're just now rolling out across the portfolio. That is one that certainly has positive implications from a resident experience perspective and from a demand perspective from our residents as well as supporting what we're doing on self-touring and things of that nature. But we've gotten a way, we have some properties with valet trash and things of that nature, but generally, those are not major items that we're focusing efforts on. It's really in areas where we're adding value to our residents, whether it's our bulk cable that we have or our Wi Fi, certainly, those are some of the larger components of the fees that we do have.

不算多。我的意思是，當然，我認為可能佔更大比重的部分是 Wi-Fi 部分，我們現在正在整個產品組合中推出這個部分。從居民體驗的角度和居民需求的角度來看，這無疑具有積極的意義，同時也支持了我們在自助旅遊和類似活動方面的工作。但我們已經找到了辦法，我們的一些物業有代客垃圾和類似的東西，但總的來說，這些不是我們重點處理的主要項目。在我們為居民增加價值的領域，無論是我們的批量有線電視還是我們的 Wi-Fi，當然，這些都是我們費用中較大的組成部分。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Richard Anderson, Wedbush.

理查德·安德森，韋德布希。

Thanks, good morning. And, Eric, if this is an April fool's joke, it'll be the best one ever, but really, an honor to follow your career to this point and good luck to you. But I am going to ask you a question because I'm not letting you get off the hook.

謝謝，早安。艾瑞克，如果這是愚人節的玩笑，那這將是有史以來最好的玩笑，但真的，我很榮幸能夠關注你的職業生涯到現在，祝你好運。但我要問你一個問題，因為我不會讓你逃過責任。

As executive Chairman, we've heard that, title before and sometimes people have difficulty disengaging. And you said you're going to remain active, which is great, I think for everybody involved, but how do you think the dynamic will play out, is Brad like on day one, his fingerprints are going to be all over or is there going to be sort of a a phase in process? I'm just wondering when you say remain active, is that like a dimmer switch as time passes or a light switch? I'm just -- I'd just love to know how things will go from here.

身為執行主席，我們聽說過這個頭銜，有時人們很難擺脫它。您說過您將保持活躍，我認為這對所有參與的人來說都很好，但您認為這種動態將如何發揮作用，布拉德是否會像第一天一樣，他的指紋將遍布各處，還是將有一個階段性的進程？我只是想知道，當您說保持活躍時，這是否像隨著時間的推移而變化的調光開關或電燈開關？我只是——我只是想知道事情接下來會如何發展。

Well, I like your analogy, Rich, about the switches. I would definitely lean towards the dimmer switch concept, and that's the intent here. As I said earlier, I've got tremendous confidence in Brad and tremendous confidence in the team that he has with him. And I think just as a function of me pulling back a little bit that the influence that Brad and the rest of the team have on performance and how things are playing out is going to grow and my influence will diminish.

嗯，Rich，我喜歡你關於開關的比喻。我絕對傾向於調光開關的概念，這就是這裡的目的。正如我之前所說，我對布拉德非常有信心，對他所在的團隊也非常有信心。我認為，只要我稍微退後一步，布拉德和團隊其他成員對錶現和事情進展的影響就會增強，而我的影響力就會減弱。

But I think that the intent here is for me to continue to be actively available to Brad to help him think about whatever may be coming up in terms of challenges or opportunities. And I certainly will remain tied into the various reporting and things that are going on to be sure I have a good finger on the pulse so that I can be helpful in that regard as well.

但我認為我這樣做的目的是繼續積極地為布拉德提供幫助，幫助他思考可能出現的挑戰或機會。我當然會繼續關注各種報導和正在發生的事情，以確保我能夠及時掌握最新動態，以便在這方面提供幫助。

But it clearly is an intention here as I've seen it done successfully in other organizations for my sort of involvement to diminish over time and that's the plan and certainly remain active at the Board level for years to come. I've got -- I've been here for 30 years, and everything I have personally is tied up in the company. I can't think of a better investment for my net worth and plan to continue to do all I can to support making it worth more in the future.

但這顯然是一個意圖，正如我在其他組織中看到成功做到的那樣，我的參與會隨著時間的推移而減少，這就是計劃，並且肯定會在未來幾年內在董事會層面保持活躍。我已經在這裡工作了 30 年，我個人擁有的一切都與公司息息相關。我想不出對我的淨資產更好的投資，併計劃繼續盡我所能支持它在未來升值。

Awesome. Thanks for that, Eric, and good luck.

驚人的。謝謝你，埃里克，祝你好運。

My second question real quick is when we've seen extraordinary conditions play out, it's often followed by extraordinary snapbacks, like for example, the 20+ percent type growth we were seeing in rents when people were moving back to the office and so on in 2022 I guess it was. So, we've had extraordinary supply in the sun belt, you're talking about a path of improvement as the year progresses. How excited are you really for 2026 and is there a chance for like significantly outsized growth starting in 2026 just because of the nature of the events that took place that preceded it? I'm just curious if that's a possibility in your eyes.

我的第二個問題是，當我們看到特殊情況發生時，通常會出現特殊反彈，例如，當人們搬回辦公室時，我們看到租金增加了 20% 以上，我想 2022 年就是這樣。所以，我們在陽光地帶擁有充足的供應，隨著時間的推移，你們談論的是一條改善的道路。您對 2026 年到底有多興奮，是否有機會在 2026 年開始實現顯著的增長，僅僅是因為之前發生的事件的性質？我只是好奇在您看來這是否有可能。

I mean, I definitely think it's a possibility, Rich. Because as you say, you and I have both been around a long time and the severity of the cycle tends to define the extent of the recovery, and we're coming off a 50-year high level of supply in our markets. I mean, this is unprecedented. We haven't seen this level of supply since we've been a public company.

我的意思是，我絕對認為這是可能的，里奇。因為正如你所說，你和我都已經存在很長時間了，週期的嚴重程度往往決定了復甦的程度，而我們的市場供應量正處於 50 年來的最高水平。我的意思是，這是史無前例的。自從我們成為上市公司以來，我們還沒有見過這種程度的供應。

And what's so encouraging about that fact is the fact that our NOI and our overall performance moderated certainly from where we were during the COVID years, but it didn't collapse by any means, and it's held up actually pretty darn well in the grand scheme of things. And I think that speaks to just the appeal of this product, the appeal of our markets, the appeal of our portfolio, and all those factors that drive the appeal and drive demand are still there and I think are growing.

令人鼓舞的是，我們的營業利潤和整體表現與新冠疫情期間相比確實有所緩和，但並沒有完全崩潰，而且從總體來看，實際上保持得相當好。我認為這說明了該產品的吸引力、我們市場的吸引力、我們產品組合的吸引力以及所有推動吸引力和需求的因素仍然存在，而且我認為還在增長。

I think the new incoming administration is more likely to have a positive impact ultimately on the economy than the negative, at least I certainly hope that. So, I'm very enthused about what I continue to believe is going to be great demand side dynamics against a backdrop of what we know is going to be incredibly dramatic falloff in the level of supply coming into the markets. And so, that does set up a very interesting set of demand and supply dynamics going into 20 late this year into '26 and '27 that we think is going to have a hugely positive impact on our performance.

我認為新政府最終更有可能對經濟產生正面影響而非負面影響，至少我希望如此。因此，我非常熱衷於我仍然相信在我們知道市場供應水準將急劇下降的背景下，需求側動態將會出現巨大的變化。因此，這確實建立了一組非常有趣的需求和供應動態，從今年末到2026年和2027年，我們認為這將對我們的業績產生巨大的正面影響。

Okay. Great. Thanks very much. Thank you again, Eric.

好的。偉大的。非常感謝。再次感謝你，埃里克。

Thank you, Rich. Appreciate it.

謝謝你，里奇。非常感謝。

Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

史蒂夫·薩誇（Steve Sakwa），Evercore ISI。

Yeah, thanks. Most of my questions have been asked. I just wanted to maybe ask Clay one on just the refinancing of the bonds,

是的，謝謝。我的大部分疑問都已經被問過了。我只是想問克萊一個關於債券再融資的問題，

I think he threw out a 5% rate. I guess I'm really curious, where do you think your spreads are today? I realized the 10-year is pretty volatile, so trying to peg it to an exact rate today might be hard, but where do you think a 10-year issue would be for you today with the 10 years sitting around a little over 440?

我認為他放棄了 5% 的利率。我真的很好奇，您認為今天的利差是多少？我意識到 10 年期公債的波動性很大，因此試圖將其與今天的確切利率掛鉤可能會很困難，但您認為，目前 10 年期國債的收益率約為 440 左右，那麼 10 年期國債的發行價對您來說會是多少呢？

Yeah, Steve, back in December we actually issued some bonds and actually got a record low spread of 78 basis points with that transaction. Given where the Treasury has trended since that point in time, I suspect that the spread is probably picked up several basis points, but I would still say it's somewhere between 80 and 85 bips.

是的，史蒂夫，去年 12 月我們實際上發行了一些債券，並且透過那次交易獲得了 78 個基點的歷史最低利差。考慮到自那時以來美國國債的走勢，我懷疑利差可能已經上升了幾個基點，但我仍然認為它會在 80 到 85 個基點之間。

Okay, great. Thanks.

好的，太好了。謝謝。

Michael Gorman, BTIG.

邁克爾·戈爾曼（Michael Gorman），BTIG。

Yeah, thanks. Just a couple of quick ones.

是的，謝謝。僅舉幾個例子。

Going back to the transaction side of things, just trying to understand how we should think about the potential timing of investments over the course of the year. If I kind of marry it up to your discussions of the fundamental strengths kind of improving in the markets and your focus on lease up properties, should we expect acquisition opportunities maybe to be front-end loaded before maybe some of that lease up opportunity hits and maybe more competition comes into the space, or how should we think about that?

回到交易方面，只是想了解我們應該如何考慮一年中投資的潛在時機。如果我將其與您關於市場基本面優勢改善和對租賃物業的關注結合起來，我們是否應該預期收購機會可能會在前端加載，也許在一些租賃機會到來之前，也許更多的競爭進入該領域，或者我們應該如何考慮這一點？

Yeah, I mean, just based on what we're seeing in the market right now and what we heard last week at NMHC, my sense is that the market's probably going to be slower the first half of the year and will likely tick up maybe mid-year and into the third quarter. And obviously, as those properties come out and hit the market, it takes 90 to 120 days for some of these to close. So, my sense is it's going to be third quarter before we really start to see the volume pick up on the transaction side.

是的，我的意思是，僅根據我們目前在市場上看到的情況以及我們上週在 NMHC 聽到的情況，我的感覺是市場在今年上半年可能會放緩，並且可能會在年中和第三季度回升。顯然，隨著這些房產推出並進入市場，其中一些需要 90 到 120 天才能完成交易。因此，我的感覺是，要到第三季我們才能真正開始看到交易量的回升。

Okay, great, that's helpful.

好的，太好了，這很有幫助。

And then maybe just one last one, I apologize if I missed it, but you mentioned outperforming on the collections from what do you have baked into the '25 guidance in terms of delinquencies?

然後也許只剩最後一個問題了，如果我錯過了我很抱歉，但是您提到了在拖欠方面您在收款方面表現優異，您在 25 年指引中考慮了什麼？

Yeah, we -- it's pretty consistent with what we've seen this past year, so I think we've got about 30 basis points, 35 basis points assumed for delinquencies and in the 2025 guidance.

是的，這與我們去年看到的情況非常一致，所以我認為我們假設拖欠率約為 30 個基點，2025 年的指引為 35 個基點。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

亨德爾聖朱斯特（Haendel St. Juste）、瑞穗。

Yes, good morning. And Eric, [golf clap], it's been a pleasure.

是的，早安。艾瑞克，[高爾夫拍手聲]，我很榮幸。

I had a couple of quick questions I wanted to -- first a follow up on, I think it was Michael question earlier. I'm curious how much actual rents would need to change over the course of this year for new lease rates to be positive, not just how much new lease spreads would need to improve, but the actual dollar per unit change from now until the third quarter. And then maybe some context on what that would perhaps look like in a more normal year. Thanks.

我有幾個簡單的問題想問——首先是一個後續問題，我認為這是之前邁克爾的問題。我很好奇，今年實際租金需要發生多少變化才能使新租賃利率為正值，不僅僅是新租賃利差需要改善多少，而且是從現在到第三季度每單位實際美元的變化。然後也許可以介紹一下在更正常的年份裡這種情況可能會是什麼樣子。謝謝。

Yeah, Haendel, this is Tim. If you think about -- so if I look at January, for example, all of the new lease absolute rents that we put in place compared to January of last year, it's about a negative 1.5% spread and that gap has continued to narrow throughout 2024. So you're calling it $25 gap in that year of year look, so that can give you a little bit of perspective on what that GAAP looks like. I mean, we typically would see if you think about market rents as whatever December was and then how it trends on new leases throughout the year, we would see July, probably 4% or 5% above what December rents are and then trend back down, so, something less than that is really what we have dialed in, but that that gives you a little bit of perspective.

是的，亨德爾，這是提姆。如果你仔細想想——例如，如果我看 1 月份，我們制定的所有新租賃絕對租金與去年 1 月份相比，差距約為負 1.5%，並且這一差距在 2024 年將繼續縮小。因此，您將其稱為年度內 25 美元的差距，這可以讓您對 GAAP 的情況有一點了解。我的意思是，我們通常會看到，如果您將市場租金視為 12 月份的水平，然後考慮全年新租約的趨勢，我們會看到 7 月份的租金可能比 12 月份的租金高出 4％ 或 5％，然後趨於下降，所以，實際上，我們撥出的數額要低於這個數字，但這可以讓您對情況有所了解。

Appreciate that.

非常感謝。

My second question is on the outlook for turnover this year, I think you guys mentioned, flat relative to last year. And last year I think you had close to I think almost 60% pension, one of the highest levels I can remember. But I'm curious if demand and market rates start to show some improvement as we expect and you start pushing a bit more for pricing power, wouldn't that cause some upward pressure on turnovers? So just curious on how you're thinking about your expectations for turnover this year.

我的第二個問題是關於今年營業額的前景，我想你們提到過，與去年相比持平。我認為去年你的退休金接近 60%，這是我記憶中的最高水準之一。但我很好奇，如果需求和市場價格如我們預期的那樣開始出現一些改善，而您開始進一步推動定價權，這是否會對營業額造成上行壓力？所以我很好奇您對於今年營業額的期望是什麼。

Yeah, I mean, certainly it does, but I would argue right now with all of the options that are out there in the market and all the supply that is out there. I mean, people have more options certainly than they ever have. So, you know, that's there's more incentive, frankly, to move right now given the concession environment and all the supply that's out there. And yet, we haven't seen that turnover pick up so I think it's more macro driven. It's the biggest reason to move out has always been to buy a house, and that's extremely difficult, not only with interest rates, but with where single-family home prices are. They continue to grow even as our rents have moderated over the last year. So, I think it's more of a macro picture in terms of price style changes and life events that's driving it more so less so than the current pricing position.

是的，我的意思是，情況確實如此，但我現在要爭論的是，市場上存在的所有選擇以及所有的供應。我的意思是，人們肯定比以前擁有更多的選擇。所以，坦白說，考慮到特許環境和現有的所有供應，現在採取行動的動機就更大了。然而，我們還沒有看到營業額回升，所以我認為這更多是由宏觀因素驅動的。搬出去的最大原因一直是買房，但這非常困難，不僅因為利率高企，還因為獨棟住宅的價格昂貴。儘管我們的租金在過去一年中有所放緩，但價格仍在繼續增長。因此，我認為，從價格風格變化和生活事件的角度來看，這更多的是一個宏觀情況，其推動力比當前的定價狀況更大。

Appreciate the thoughts. Thanks, guys.

感謝您的想法。謝謝大家。

Rich Hightower, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的里奇‧海托爾 (Rich Hightower)。

Hey, good morning, guys. And again, congrats to both Eric and and Brad.

嘿，大家早安。再次恭喜 Eric 和 Brad。

Just one for me. I guess, if we're -- if you're keeping a steady development pipeline, it sounds like right around a billion, give or take. But if we see this air pocket of sorts in new supply going forward where maybe you could lean into development a little more, as sort of current projects trail off, what's the appetite, the capacity? Obviously, you've got a great balance sheet, and I assume you could flex that up anytime you like. So, just tell us about the thoughts around maybe increasing development from here. Thanks.

對我來說只有一個。我想，如果我們——如果你保持穩定的開發管道，這個數字聽起來大約是 10 億美元，或多或少。但是，如果我們看到未來新供應中出現這種空洞，也許你可以更傾向於開發，因為目前的項目會逐漸減少，那麼需求和產能是多少呢？顯然，你的資產負債表非常出色，而且我認為你可以隨時調整它。那麼，請告訴我們您從這裡開始可能增加發展的想法。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, I think certainly development is one of the best uses of capital that we have today, especially given, what we think will be a diminished supply pipeline going forward. And it takes time to really build that pipeline and 2 years ago that we had that pipeline was at about $450 million. And today, it's close to $900 million where we want to keep it. So, the team has done a tremendous job of really building it to that point. And I do think said in his comments and I've mentioned, the starts that we had in 2024 is a record level for us and so we have really good momentum in terms of building that and would like to really keep it elevated.

是的，我的意思是，我認為開發無疑是我們今天對資本的最佳利用方式之一，特別是考慮到我們認為未來的供應管道將會減少。真正建造這條管道需要時間，兩年前我們建造這條管道的成本約為 4.5 億美元。如今，我們希望將其保持在近 9 億美元的水平。所以，團隊為了真正實現這一點已經做了大量的工作。我確實認為他在評論中說過，我也提到過，我們在 2024 年的開局對我們來說是一個創紀錄的水平，因此我們在建設方面有著非常好的勢頭，並且希望真正保持這種勢頭。

Today, we expect another 3 to 4 projects to start this year which will keep us at that level where I think you could potentially see additional opportunities could be in our JV pre-purchase platform where we partner with other developers because we are seeing continued instances where equity capital is backing out of deals and we're able to step into potential deals that are pretty close to shove already. We have a couple of opportunities we're looking at like that for this year which could allow us to quickly add additional projects to that pipeline.

今天，我們預計今年將有另外 3 到 4 個項目啟動，這將使我們保持在這一水平，我認為您可能會看到更多機會，可能是在我們的合資預購平台上，我們與其他開發商合作，因為我們看到股權資本不斷退出交易的情況，而我們能夠介入已經非常接近達成的潛在交易。我們今年正在考慮幾個類似的機會，這可以讓我們快速地將其他項目添加到該頻道中。

So, you know, that's an area we'll continue to focus on. We'd like to keep our exposure there, no more than about 5% of our enterprise value, which keeps us kind of in that, we call it $1.2 billion range, something in that area. So, we'll continue to focus on developing to the extent that we're able to lean into that a bit more, we, we will.

所以，您知道，這是我們將繼續關注的領域。我們希望將我們的投資保持在那裡，不超過我們企業價值的 5％，也就是保持在 12 億美元的範圍內，大概在這個範圍內。所以，我們將繼續專注於發展，只要我們能夠更加依賴這一點，我們會的。

Okay, very helpful. Thanks.

好的，很有幫助。謝謝。

Wes Golladay, Baird.

韋斯·戈拉迪，貝爾德。

Hey, good morning. everyone. And congratulations to both Eric and Brad.

嘿，早安。每個人。並恭喜 Eric 和 Brad。

Quick question for you on migration to the Sun Belt. Has there been any change in volume or where they're coming from?

我想問您一個關於遷移到陽光地帶的快速問題。其數量或來源有變化嗎？

Hey, Wes. This is Tim.

嘿，韋斯。這是蒂姆。

Not really. I mean, it's sort of hovered in that 10% to 12% to 13% of our move in coming from outside of the Sun Belt into the Sun Belt, and that's continues to be in that range. And generally, it's obviously the larger states is where they tend to come from it's California, New York and Chicago and some of those. So broadly, the trends are the same as they've been for the last year or so.

並不真地。我的意思是，從陽光地帶以外地區遷入陽光地帶的人數比例徘徊在 10% 到 12% 到 13% 之間，而且這一比例一直保持在這個範圍內。一般來說，他們顯然都來自較大的州，例如加州、紐約州和芝加哥等。總體而言，趨勢與過去一年左右的趨勢相同。

Okay, and then you're doing a lot of asset recycling this year. Is there any appetite to lever up a little early in the cycle?

好的，那麼今年你要做大量的資產回收。是否有興趣在周期早期稍微加大槓桿？

Yeah, so we'll -- you'll probably see a little bit of that as we look to acquire, Brad mentioned some of those acquisitions will probably be in the latter part of the year. What we're -- the way we're thinking about the cadence of that though is to your point with us is that those dispositions will probably fall off in the back part of the year. And so, you might see a little bit of lever up to fund some of the development pipeline that we've talked about as well as some of the acquisitions that we've guided towards as well. I don't think it would be -- it wouldn't be anything outside of what we stated as far as where our leverage would go though.

是的，所以當我們尋求收購時，你可能會看到一點這樣的情況，布拉德提到其中一些收購可能會在今年下半年進行。我們正在思考這個節奏，但與您的想法一致，這些傾向可能會在今年下半年下降。因此，您可能會看到一些槓桿作用，用於資助我們談到的一些開發管道以及我們指導的一些收購。我不認為會這樣——就我們的槓桿作用而言，它不會超出我們所述的範圍。

Okay, thank you.

好的，謝謝。

(inaudible), Jeffreries.

（聽不清楚），傑弗里斯。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Eric, congratulations again. You're really a paradigm for leadership.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。埃里克，再次祝賀你。您真是領導的典範。

You're earning of 15 -- negative 15 to negative 50 based on pricing through October. Maybe just some more color on that and how does that compare to a year ago?

根據截至 10 月的定價，您的利潤為 15 -- -15 到 -50。也許只是對此進行更多的說明，並且與一年前相比如何？

Yeah, so last year our earning was a positive 50 basis points. And so as I mentioned in my comments, that the earn end we have going into 2025 is negative 40 basis points, if you're alluding to our new presentation that we had provided back in November. The difference -- the midpoint of that was obviously 35 negative 35 basis points. So, we did see a little bit of pressure in November and December in pricing, that bar from that midpoint down to the negative 40 basis points.

是的，去年我們的收益是正 50 個基點。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，如果您指的是我們 11 月份提供的新演示文稿，那麼到 2025 年我們的盈利預期為負 40 個基點。差異 — — 其中間點顯然是 35 個負 35 個基點。因此，我們確實看到 11 月和 12 月的定價面臨一點壓力，從中點下跌至負 40 個基點。

And then the steep drop in supply pressure in markets over down 20% like Houston, Atlanta, Orlando, is that supply coming down at the same time collectively or is it sort of bumpy?

那麼，休士頓、亞特蘭大、奧蘭多等市場供應壓力急劇下降，跌幅超過 20%，供應量是同時下降還是波動趨勢？

It's relatively consistent when you think about it across the markets because if you go back to the starts that we talked about that kind of peaked in second quarter, third quarter of 2022. There's a couple of markets where that peak was a quarter earlier or a quarter later, but for the most part it was right in that range. So, I would expect a relatively steady decline. It's pretty consistent across most markets. I mean, certainly there's a few that are still seeing increasing supply, but on balance it's a pretty consistent trend.

如果你從整個市場來考慮，它是相對一致的，因為如果你回到我們談論的開始，那種情況在 2022 年第二季、第三季達到頂峰。有幾個市場的峰值比預期早一個季度或晚一個季度，但大多數市場都處於這個範圍內。因此，我預期下降趨勢會相對穩定。在大多數市場上它都是相當一致的。我的意思是，當然有少數地方的供應量仍在增加，但總的來說，這是一個相當一致的趨勢。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ann Chan, Green Street. Your line is opened.

安‧陳 (Ann Chan)，綠街。您的線路已開通。

Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my question.

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。

So first question, going to the topic of portfolio location, over the next few years, do you expect to exit any markets or enter any new markets? And if so, which markets are on your short list?

所以第一個問題，談到投資組合位置的話題，在未來幾年裡，您是否預計退出任何市場或進入任何新市場？如果是的話，您的候選名單有哪些市場？

Yeah, hey, Ann. This is Brad. I mean, we definitely have some markets where we have one or two assets that over time we'll continue to cycle out of and drive efficiencies. Broadly speaking, we like our overall portfolio allocation where we're located in the split between kind of our larger markets and our mid-tier markets. So, certainly not looking to do any type of a large repositioning of the portfolio, but some of those markets where we have one or two assets will certainly look to call out of over time.

是的，嘿，安。這是布拉德。我的意思是，我們確實在某些市場擁有一兩項資產，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續循環利用這些資產並提高效率。廣義上講，我們喜歡我們的整體投資組合分配，也就是我們位於較大市場和中型市場之間的分配。因此，我們當然不會考慮對投資組合進行任何類型的大規模重新定位，但隨著時間的推移，我們擁有一兩項資產的市場肯定會被撤出。

In terms of other markets, I mean, we do have newer markets for us that we need to continue to grow in, Denver, we've got a pretty big development pipeline there where we continue to add assets and grow to that market, which is a newer market for us. Salt Lake City is another one where we need to continue to grow and fill out, and we are looking at newer markets that have some of the same characteristics of our high growth markets. And Columbus, Ohio is certainly a market that we've studied and are looking at and so, we'll see. It has a lot of the similar characteristics as our other markets in terms of job growth and things of that nature.

就其他市場而言，我的意思是，我們確實有需要繼續發展的新市場，例如丹佛，我們在那裡擁有相當大的發展管道，我們會繼續增加資產，並向該市場發展，這對我們來說是一個較新的市場。鹽湖城是另一個我們需要繼續發展和充實的市場，我們正在尋找具有與我們的高成長市場相同的一些特徵的新市場。俄亥俄州哥倫布市無疑是我們研究過並正在關注的市場，所以我們拭目以待。在就業成長和諸如此類的事情方面，它與我們的其他市場有許多相似的特徵。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And for a second question, shifting over to developments and construction costs. Have you observed any changing trends in construction cost components like labor or material costs, et cetera, over the last few months? And to the extent that it drives development decisions, where would you need to see construction costs for development you know to be a more attractive pursuit than these sets?

第二個問題是關於開發和建造成本。在過去的幾個月中，您是否觀察到建築成本組成部分（例如勞動力或材料成本等）的變化趨勢？就其推動開發決策的程度而言，您需要在哪裡看到比這些集合更有吸引力的開發的建造成本？

Yeah, I mean, we have seen construction costs come down. I mean, really over the better part of 2024, it wasn't as broad based in 2024. I mean, selectively we saw 4% or 5% reduction in certain markets, I would say at this point. We were seeing it in additional markets probably in that 5% or so range, and generally that's more in the -- we've seen some labor reduction. We've really seen reduction in margins that expanded over the last couple of years by subs and GCs, so we've seen some improvement there.

是的，我的意思是，我們已經看到建築成本下降了。我的意思是，實際上，在 2024 年的大部分時間裡，它並沒有那麼廣泛。我的意思是，目前，我們在某些​​市場看到 4% 或 5% 的降幅。我們在其他市場看到的這種情況大概在 5% 左右，一般來說，我們看到了一些勞動力的減少。我們確實看到利潤率在過去幾年因訂閱和總承包商的增加而有所下降，因此我們在那裡看到了一些改善。

And I think for us to continue to increase our development, we need to see costs, the combination of costs and rent improvement to the tune of, call it 5% to 7% additionally, and we have a pipeline of sites that we own with projects that are approved, and to the extent we continue to see some improvement in the underwriting of those with construction costs and rents. More of those will begin to pencil as we progress throughout this year.

我認為，為了繼續增加我們的開發，我們需要看到成本，成本和租金的綜合改善，額外增加 5％ 到 7％，並且我們擁有一系列已獲批准的項目，並且我們繼續看到建築成本和租金的承保有所改善。隨著今年的進展，將會有更多這樣的事發生。

Great, thanks so much.

太好了，非常感謝。

Tayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Tayo Okusanya。

Hi, yes, good morning. Again, let me add my congratulations as well with the transition. Eric, maybe this gives you a little bit more time to get that next PR in the marathon.

嗨，是的，早安。再次，請允許我對此轉變表示祝賀。艾瑞克，也許這會給你多一點時間在馬拉鬆比賽中創造下一個個人最佳成績。

Mike, my question has to do with -- again, you guys have been very offensive-minded, in the past year or so looking for opportunities for kind of distress opportunities to take advantage of some of the oversupply and what they be doing to developers. But it sounds like, again, cap rates for acquisitions are still pretty tight. It doesn't sound like there's that much distress out there.

麥克，我的問題是關於——再說一次，你們一直很有進攻意識，在過去一年左右的時間裡尋找機會，利用供應過剩的局面來牟利，以及他們對開發商所做的事情。但聽起來，收購的資本化率仍然相當緊張。聽起來似乎沒有那麼多的痛苦。

So, when we kind of think about, again, this opportunity that you've described for the better part of the past one year, just how real can it actually be? And how do you start thinking about maybe getting opportunities to buy things well below replacement cost or those kind of opportunities that are really value added that create shareholder value, typically in environments of distress.

那麼，當我們再次思考您在過去一年中大部分時間所描述的這個機會時，它實際上有多真實？您如何開始考慮獲得以遠低於重置成本的價格購買商品的機會，或者獲得真正能創造股東價值的增值機會，通常是在困難環境下。

Yes, hi. It's Brad.

是的，你好。是布拉德。

Definitely we haven't seen a lot of distress, frankly. And we'll continue to focus where we have, and that's generally in these projects that are at lease up. I mean, we do think that those will continue to face a bit of pressure just given the amount of supply that's out there and given the strength of our operating platform. I mean, we are to really take advantage of those, and there are some sellers out there that are interested in selling some of those properties earlier before they're stabilized and still generate a very similar return for their capital. But if they waited till it stabilized, and they sold at a higher price.

坦白說，我們確實沒有看到太多痛苦。我們將繼續專注於我們已經擁有的領域，也就是那些已經租賃的項目。我的意思是，我們確實認為，考慮到現有的供應量和我們營運平台的實力，這些將繼續面臨一些壓力。我的意思是，我們要真正利用這些優勢，而且有一些賣家有興趣在這些房產穩定下來之前儘早出售部分房產，並且仍然為他們的資本產生非常相似的回報。但如果他們等到價格穩定下來，他們就會以更高的價格出售。

So based on our experience and our markets, our relationships, we're still able to find opportunities like that. We're able to get some of these assets at some of these high yields, close to 6% basis at replacement, well below replacement costs. So, we'll continue to focus in that area, you could see some distress perhaps in some of the older assets that sold in 2020, 2021 with refinancing that has to come due. But for the most part, some of that, most of that would not be something that we're interested generally.

因此，基於我們的經驗、市場和關係，我們仍然能夠找到這樣的機會。我們能夠以高收益獲得部分此類資產，重置收益率接近 6%，遠低於重置成本。因此，我們將繼續關注該領域，您可能會看到，2020 年、2021 年出售的一些舊資產因必須到期的再融資而出現一些困境。但在大多數情況下，其中的一些，大多數都不是我們一般感興趣的東西。

Helpful. And if I could ask one other quick one, again, thanks for the update about bad debt and delinquency. Curious again about some of the fraud-related issues that were kind of going on in some of the markets, what you're seeing in terms of that, whether it's kind of gotten worse or gotten better, both in terms of the overall activity and also in terms of some of your preventive measures as well against those issues.

很有幫助。如果我可以再問一個簡單的問題，再次感謝您提供有關壞帳和拖欠的最新資訊。我再次好奇某些市場中發生的一些詐欺相關問題，就整體活動和針對這些問題採取的一些預防措施而言，您認為情況是變得更糟還是更好了。

Hi, this is Tim. I think you were asking about fraud and bad debt, is that correct? You kind of cut out there for a second.

你好，我是提姆。我想您問的是詐欺和壞帳問題，對嗎？您稍微停頓了一下。

Yeah, we've seen continued lowering pressure, I would say Atlanta's been the market that has been talked about a lot and our delinquency there is just about consistent with where we are at the broader portfolio level. I mean, we have a lot of tools in place, both in terms of sort of AI machine learning type of stuff plus training that we do both on site and some resources we have at the corporate level as well to where if there's anything that looks a little bit off in terms of income documentation or ID or whatever, we've got people that are trained to really help spot that and take a look at those.

是的，我們看到持續的下降壓力，我想說亞特蘭大一直是人們談論最多的市場，我們在那裡的拖欠情況與我們在更廣泛的投資組合層面的情況基本一致。我的意思是，我們已經有很多工具了，既有人工智慧機器學習類型的東西，也有我們在現場進行的培訓，以及我們在公司層面的一些資源，如果收入文件或身份證件等方面出現任何問題，我們就會派出經過培訓的人員來真正幫助發現並審查這些問題。

So, get it being very preventative has been helpful. It probably hurt occupancy for a while there in Atlanta, but it's going to be better long term, and we started to see that play out with continued lower bad debt. So honestly, not much of an issue at all for us.

因此，採取預防措施非常有幫助。這可能會在一段時間內影響亞特蘭大的入住率，但從長遠來看，情況會好轉，而且我們開始看到這種情況的發生，壞帳持續減少。所以說實話，這對我們來說根本不是什麼問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Kim, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場部的 John Kim 說。

Thank you. And Eric, congratulations on transforming MAA from good to great.

謝謝。Eric，恭喜你帶領 MAA 從優秀走向卓越。

Brad, I had a question --

布拉德，我有個問題--

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

I had a question on, in the press release, you talked about some markets seeing positively of release rates versus last year. And I'm wondering what com what markets those are and where you feel most bullish about which markets will be driving the improvement in blended lease growth this year.

我有一個問題，在新聞稿中，您談到一些市場對釋放率的看法與去年相比持正面態度。我想知道這些市場是什麼，以及您最看好哪些市場將推動今年混合租賃成長的改善。

Hey, John. This is Tim. I'll answer some of the detail there.

嘿，約翰。這是蒂姆。我將在那裡回答一些細節。

So, we did see 13 markets where we had positive blended in January, which was encouraging, and it was pretty widespread among some mid-tier and smaller and some larger markets as well. I would point to Tampa is one that we're -- we've really seen some good traction in the last two quarters or so, and it is trended above the portfolio. I think that's one where we could see some improving performance 2025.

因此，我們確實看到 13 個市場在 1 月出現了正成長，這是令人鼓舞的，而且這種成長在一些中型、小型和一些大型市場中也相當普遍。我想指出的是，坦帕是我們在過去兩個季度左右確實看到了一些良好勢頭的一個，它的趨勢高於投資組合。我認為到 2025 年我們可以看到業績有所提升。

When you think about good markets, if you will, there's the ones that have been good are going to drive good revenue now, then there's the ones where the pricing is improving and it's more tip of the spirit. It will show up in revenue till later, so the first bucket is going to be some of the ones we've talked about. It's DC, it's Houston, it's Charleston. Those are we expect to continue to be strong. Then there's markets like Tampa, and I would put Orlando in that bucket as well that are starting to show some improvement. And we think as you get in a bit later this year, those are a couple that we expect to see some better performance from. And then we'll -- Austin still one that we expect to continue to be a laggard with the continuing supply pressure there, but Orlando would be two that I would point out as trending markets for us.

當您考慮好的市場時，如果您願意的話，您會發現，那些一直表現良好的市場現在將會帶來良好的收入，然後還有那些定價正在改善的市場，這更是一種精神的體現。它會在稍後的收入中顯示出來，因此第一個桶將是我們討論過的一些。它是華盛頓特區、它是休士頓、它是查爾斯頓。我們預計這些將繼續保持強勁。然後還有像坦帕這樣的市場，我會把奧蘭多也歸類在這個類別，這些市場也開始顯示出一些改善。我們認為，隨著今年稍後的到來，我們有望看到這兩款產品有更好的表現。然後我們 - 我們預計奧斯汀仍將繼續落後，因為那裡的供應壓力持續存在，但奧蘭多將是我想指出的兩個趨勢市場。

And then to get to your negative 1.5% new lease rate for the year, what kind of market rent growth are you assuming? And if you can comment on your current gain to lease and how much of a headwind that will be in order to get that new lease growth rate.

那麼，為了得到今年-1.5%的新租賃率，您假設的市場租金成長率是怎樣的？您能否評論一下目前的租賃收益，以及為了獲得新的租賃成長率會面臨多大的阻力。

Having gain at least about 1% right now, which it always tends to gap out this time of the year when pricing is weakest. So, I would expect -- we saw January market rents were a little bit higher, about 0.5% higher than what December were, so I think that'll trend up through the summer and then trend back down. But probably the best way to think about it is just we talked about our newly fleece over rates for the full year expected to be kind of in that negative 1.5% range. So, over the full year it should -- that should correlate pretty well with market rate growth.

目前漲幅至少 1%，而每年這個時候，當價格最弱時，漲幅總是會出現跳空的現象。因此，我預計——我們看到 1 月的市場租金會略高一些，比 12 月高出約 0.5%，所以我認為整個夏季這個趨勢會呈上升趨勢，然後回落。但可能最好的思考方式是，我們剛剛談到的全年新羊毛利率預計在-1.5%的範圍內。因此，從全年來看，它應該與市場利率成長有很好的相關性。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

We have no further questions. I will return the call to MMA -- MAA for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我將回電給 MMA - MAA 並請他們作最後發言。

Okay, no further comments from the company, so we appreciate everyone joining us and we will see many of you at the conference in February or March. Thank you.

好的，公司沒有進一步的評論，所以我們感謝大家的加入，我們將在二月或三月的會議上見到你們。謝謝。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect at this time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。