Mid-America Apartment Communities Inc (MAA) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the MAA Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded today, October 30, 2025. [Operator Instructions]

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 MAA 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。【操作員說明】提醒各位，本次電話會議將於2025年10月30日進行錄音。[操作說明]

I will now turn the call over to Andrew Schaeffer, Senior Vice President, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets of MAA for opening comments.

現在我將把電話交給美國市場協會（MAA）高級副總裁、財務主管兼資本市場總監安德魯·謝弗，請他發表開場白。

Thank you, Regina, and good morning, everyone. This is Andrew Schaeffer, Treasurer and Director of Capital Markets for MAA. Members of the management team participating on the call this morning are Brad Hill, Tim Argo, Clay Holder and Rob DelPriore.

謝謝你，雷吉娜，大家早安。這是 MAA 的財務主管兼資本市場總監 Andrew Schaeffer。今天早上參加電話會議的管理團隊成員有：布拉德·希爾、蒂姆·阿戈、克萊·霍爾德和羅布·德爾普里奧雷。

Before we begin with prepared comments this morning, I want to point out that as part of this discussion, company management will be making forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from our projections. We encourage you to refer to the forward-looking statements section in yesterday's earnings release and our 34-F filings with the SEC, which describe risk factors that may impact future results.

今天早上在正式發言之前，我想指出，作為本次討論的一部分，公司管理層將發表一些前瞻性聲明。實際結果可能與我們的預測有重大差異。我們建議您參閱昨天發布的盈利報告中的前瞻性聲明部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的 34-F 文件，其中描述了可能影響未來業績的風險因素。

During this call, we will also discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. A presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as reconciliations of the differences between non-GAAP and comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release and supplemental financial data. Our earnings release and supplement are currently available on the For Investors page of our website at www.maac.com.

在本次電話會議中，我們也將討論一些非GAAP財務指標。最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的列示以及非 GAAP 指標與可比較 GAAP 指標之間差異的調整表，可在我們的獲利報告和補充財務數據中找到。我們的收益報告和補充資料目前可在我們網站 www.maac.com 的「投資者」頁面上查閱。

A copy of our prepared comments and an audio recording of this call will also be available on our website later today. After some brief prepared comments, the management team will be available to answer questions.

今天晚些時候，我們網站上也會提供我們準備好的評論稿和本次通話的錄音。在進行簡短的發言後，管理團隊將回答問題。

I will now turn the call over to Brad.

現在我將把通話轉給布拉德。

Thank you, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. As highlighted in our earnings release, our third quarter core FFO results met our expectations, reinforcing the resilience of our platform and strategy. While the broader economic environment has introduced some challenges, including slower job growth and tempered pricing power in new leases, we are still seeing recovery. Strong occupancy, solid collections and year-over-year improvements in new renewal and blended lease rates in the third quarter demonstrate our momentum.

謝謝你，安德魯，大家早安。正如我們在獲利報告中所強調的那樣，我們第三季的核心FFO業績符合預期，這增強了我們平台和策略的韌性。儘管整體經濟環境帶來了一些挑戰，包括就業成長放緩和新租賃定價能力減弱，但我們仍然看到復甦的跡象。第三季強勁的入住率、穩健的租金收入以及新續租和綜合租賃價格的年比改善，都顯示了我們的發展勢頭。

Demand across our markets remains healthy and we are encouraged that the record level of lease-ups in our region are being absorbed with occupancy levels increasing 450 basis points over the past 5 quarters and now approaching pre-COVID levels. Supply levels in our markets, though elevated historically, are trending down at a faster pace than many other regions. As new deliveries continue to decline each quarter, we anticipate a strengthening recovery in pricing power and operating performance.

我們各個市場的需求依然健康，令人鼓舞的是，我們地區的租賃量創下歷史新高，入住率在過去 5 個季度中增長了 450 個基點，現在正接近新冠疫情前的水平。雖然我們市場的供應水平從歷史角度來看處於較高水平，但其下降速度比許多其他地區都要快。隨著新車交付量每季持續下降，我們預期定價能力和營運績效將逐步恢復。

Importantly, new starts remain below long-term averages and have for the past 10 quarters, and we see no indication of an acceleration in starts. In fact, per our third-party data provider, our markets saw just 0.2% of inventory in new starts in the third quarter. And starts over the trailing 4 quarters were just 1.8% of inventory, roughly half the historical norm, positioning us for sustained improvement.

重要的是，新開工量仍然低於長期平均水平，並且已經持續了 10 個季度，我們沒有看到任何開工量加速成長的跡象。事實上，根據我們的第三方數據供應商的數據，第三季我們市場的全新開工庫存僅佔0.2%。過去四個季度的開工量僅佔庫存的 1.8%，約為歷史平均值的一半，這為我們持續改進奠定了基礎。

Our diversified presence across high-growth markets and more affordable price point provides access to a broader segment of the rental market that is financially strong, supporting continued strong collections. Additionally, our region continues to capture one of the highest levels of annual wage growth, as evidenced by the increasing incomes of our new residents, driving favorable rent-to-income ratios, which remain at a healthy low of 20%.

我們在高成長市場中的多元化佈局和更實惠的價格點，使我們能夠接觸到財務狀況良好的更廣泛的租賃市場，從而支持持續強勁的租金回收。此外，我們地區繼續保持著最高的年度薪資成長率之一，新居民的收入不斷增長證明了這一點，從而推動了有利的租金收入比，該比率保持在 20% 的健康低位。

Improving leasing conditions also bolster our redevelopment pipeline and offering residents a newly renovated unit at a more affordable price as compared to the higher-priced new multifamily supply. Due to persistent single-family affordability challenges, our strong customer service and demographic trends that support renting, residents are choosing to stay longer with only 10.8% of our move-outs occurring due to home purchases.

改善租賃條件也有助於加強我們的重建項目，並為居民提供價格更實惠的全新裝修單元，相比之下，價格更高的新建多戶住宅供應則更為經濟實惠。由於獨棟住宅價格持續上漲，加上我們強大的客戶服務和有利於租房的人口趨勢，居民選擇延長居住時間，只有 10.8% 的搬離是由於購房造成的。

Our balance sheet remains a key strength with our recent credit facility expansion, which Clay will discuss in a moment, providing exceptional flexibility. While the transaction market has been active at sub-5% cap rates, we continue to identify select accretive opportunities such as our recent Kansas City acquisition, a stabilized suburban 318-unit property that we purchased for approximately $96 million and is expected to deliver a year 1 NOI yield of 5.8%.

我們的資產負債表仍然是一項關鍵優勢，最近我們擴大了信貸額度（克萊稍後會談到這一點），這為我們提供了極大的靈活性。儘管交易市場一直處於低於 5% 的資本化率狀態，但我們仍在繼續尋找一些具有增值潛力的機會，例如我們最近在堪薩斯城收購的一處穩定的郊區物業，該物業擁有 318 個單元，我們以約 9600 萬美元的價格收購，預計第一年營業淨收入收益率將達到 5.8%。

Subsequent to quarter end, we purchased an adjacent land parcel for an 88-unit Phase 2 that will expand the stabilized NOI yield on our total investment to nearly 6.5% after capturing additional scale and efficiencies from the Phase 2 development. We are also advancing our development pipeline and securing additional attractive long-term investment opportunities.

季度末之後，我們購買了相鄰的一塊土地，用於建造二期工程，該工程將使二期工程的規模和效率進一步提高，從而使我們總投資的穩定淨營業收入收益率提高到近 6.5%。我們也正在推動研發項目，並尋求更多有吸引力的長期投資機會。

In today's equity-constrained environment, our access to capital and development expertise remain competitive advantages. Following quarter end, we acquired land, plans and permits for a shovel-ready project in Scottsdale, Arizona scheduled to begin construction in the fourth quarter. This project, like others, we've recently launched, reflects our ability to capitalize on situations where developers face equity challenges, allowing us to secure projects at a compelling basis. The Scottsdale development is expected to deliver a stabilized NOI yield of 6.1%.

在當今資金緊張的環境下，我們獲得資本和開發專業知識的能力仍然是我們的競爭優勢。季度末之後，我們獲得了位於亞利桑那州斯科茨代爾的一個已做好開工準備的項目的土地、規劃和許可證，該項目計劃於第四季度開始建設。這個專案與我們最近推出的其他專案一樣，體現了我們能夠利用開發商面臨股權挑戰的情況，從而以極具吸引力的價格獲得專案。斯科茨代爾開發案預計將實現 6.1% 的穩定淨營業收入收益率。

In total, we now own or control 15 development sites with approvals for over 4,200 units. And if market conditions remain supportive, we anticipate starting construction on 6 to 8 projects over the next 6 quarters driving meaningful earnings contribution in the years ahead.

目前，我們總共擁有或控制 15 個開發地塊，已獲批建造超過 4200 個單元。如果市場條件保持良好，我們預計將在未來 6 個季度啟動 6 至 8 個專案的建設，從而在未來幾年為公司帶來可觀的收益貢獻。

With a 30-year track record of delivering through economic cycles, we remain confident in our ability to execute during this transition. Our focus on high-demand, high-growth markets, significant redevelopment opportunities, efficiency gains from technology initiatives rolling out in '26 and beyond and a growing external growth strategy position us for stronger earnings growth.

憑藉30年來在經濟週期中取得優異成績的經驗，我們對在此次轉型期間的執行能力仍然充滿信心。我們專注於高需求、高成長的市場、重要的重建機會、2026 年及以後推出的技術舉措帶來的效率提升，以及不斷增長的外部成長策略，這些都使我們的獲利成長更加強勁。

Our portfolio will continue to benefit from job growth, wage growth, household formation and migration and population trends that outpace other regions. We are encouraged by the building blocks that are in place in what we expect will be an acceleration of the recovery cycle in 2026 leading to sustained revenue and earnings growth, as new deliveries continue to decline and the recovery advances.

我們的投資組合將繼續受益於就業成長、薪資成長、家庭組成和遷移以及人口趨勢，這些趨勢均超過其他地區。我們對目前已具備的各項基礎感到鼓舞，預計 2026 年復甦週期將加速，隨著新車交付量持續下降和復甦進程的推進，收入和利潤將持續增長。

To all our associates across our properties and corporate offices, thank you for your unwavering dedication and commitment during this busy leasing season. Your efforts continue to drive our success.

致我們所有物業和公司辦公室的同事們，感謝你們在這個繁忙的租賃季中始終如一的奉獻和投入。你們的努力一直是我們成功的關鍵。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Tim.

那麼，接下來我將把電話交給提姆。

Thank you, Brad, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter, we saw increasing occupancy and strong retention and renewal lease rates but experienced continued lack of traction and the ability to push on new lease rates. We believe broad economic uncertainty and slower job growth, as evidenced by a downward revision to the job growth numbers, contributed to prospects being more cautious about making decisions to move and to operators prioritizing occupancy over new lease rents.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家早安。第三季度，入住率有所提高，續約率和續約率也表現強勁，但在提高新租約方面仍缺乏動力和能力。我們認為，廣泛的經濟不確定性和就業成長放緩（就業成長數據向下修正即證明了這一點）導致潛在租戶在做出搬遷決定時更加謹慎，也導致營運商優先考慮入住率而不是新的租賃租金。

Despite the challenging environment for new leases, we continue to see new lease-over-lease pricing improve over the prior year at minus 5.2%, up 20 basis points as compared to the third quarter of 2024, combined with the strong renewal lease-over-lease performance of plus 4.5%, which was up 40 basis points over the prior year. Blended pricing for the quarter was positive 0.3%, improving 50 basis points from the third quarter of last year.

儘管新租賃市場環境充滿挑戰，但我們仍然看到新租賃價格較上年有所改善，下降了 5.2%，比 2024 年第三季上升了 20 個基點；同時，續租價格也表現強勁，上升了 4.5%，比去年上升了 40 個基點。本季綜合定價為正0.3%，比去年第三季提高了50個基點。

As mentioned, average physical occupancy sequentially improved to 95.6% in the third quarter, representing a 20 basis point increase from the second quarter. Additionally, we had another quarter of strong collections with net delinquency representing just 0.3% of billed rents.

如前所述，第三季平均實際入住率較上季提高至 95.6%，比第二季提高了 20 個基點。此外，本季我們的收款情況依然強勁，淨拖欠租金僅佔已開立租金租金的 0.3%。

A number of our mid-tier markets, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region continue to be outperformers relative to the portfolio. Richmond and the D.C. area markets remain strong and other markets such as Savannah, Charleston and Greenville all demonstrated strong pricing power in the quarter. Of our larger markets, Houston continue to be steady and we are seeing encouraging progress in Atlanta and the Dallas-Fort Worth area properties, where blended pricing in both of these markets improved sequentially from the second quarter and outperformed the same-store portfolio.

我們的一些中等規模市場，特別是大西洋中部地區的市場，相對於投資組合而言，繼續表現優異。里士滿和華盛頓特區地區的市場仍然強勁，而薩凡納、查爾斯頓和格林維爾等其他市場在本季也都表現出了強大的定價能力。在我們較大的市場中，休士頓繼續保持穩定，我們看到亞特蘭大和達拉斯-沃斯堡地區的物業取得了令人鼓舞的進展，這兩個市場的綜合定價較第二季度有所改善，並且超過了同店投資組合的表現。

The lagging markets we have noted for the past few quarters remain consistent with Austin continuing to work through its record supply pressure, resulting in weak new lease pricing and Nashville facing significant pricing pressure as well.

過去幾季我們觀察到的滯後市場依然存在，奧斯汀繼續承受著創紀錄的供應壓力，導致新租賃價格疲軟，納許維爾也面臨巨大的價格壓力。

In our lease-up portfolio, we had three properties: West Midtown, Daybreak and Milepost 35 reach stabilization in the third quarter. We continue to make progress with our other 4 lease-up properties, which have a combined occupancy of 66.1% as of the end of the third quarter and the 2 development properties that are currently leasing units. We have seen the uncertainty and higher leasing price impacted a portion of our lease-up portfolio and pushed the stabilization date by 1 quarter for Valvest and Phoenix. While Liberty Road just started leasing the other 5 properties with units delivered are well into the lease-up process and rents are in line with the original performance. This helps preserve the long-term value creation opportunity despite the overall leasing velocity being a little bit behind original expectations.

在我們的租賃投資組合中，有三個物業：West Midtown、Daybreak 和 Milepost 35 在第三季達到穩定狀態。我們其他 4 個租賃物業的進展也持續順利，截至第三季末，這些物業的合計入住率為 66.1%，此外還有 2 個開發物業目前正在出租單位。我們已經看到不確定性和更高的租賃價格影響了我們部分租賃組合，並將 Valvest 和 Phoenix 的穩定日期推遲了一個季度。Liberty Road 剛開始出租，其他 5 個已交付單位的房產也已順利進入租賃過程，租金與最初的業績相符。儘管整體租賃速度略低於預期，但這有助於維持長期價值創造機會。

Our various targeted redevelopment and repositioning initiatives continued in the third quarter, and we still expect to accelerate these programs into 2026. During the third quarter of 2025, we completed 2,090 interior unit upgrades, achieving rent increases of $99 above non-upgraded units and a cash-on-cash return in excess of 20%. This was an acceleration of both volume of completed units and rent growth achieved from the second quarter.

第三季度，我們各項有針對性的重建和重新定位計劃繼續推進，我們仍然希望在 2026 年加快這些計劃的實施。2025 年第三季度，我們完成了 2090 套室內單元的升級改造，使租金比未升級的單元上漲了 99 美元，現金回報率超過 20%。與第二季度相比，竣工單元數量和租金增長均有所加快。

Despite this more competitive supply environment, these units leased on average 10 days faster than non-renovated units when adjusted for the additional turn time. We still expect to renovate approximately 6,000 units in 2025. And for our common area and amenity repositioning program, we continue the repricing phase at 6 recent projects with 5 of the 6 past the halfway point in repricing. So far, the results are encouraging with double-digit NOI yields and rent growth far exceeding peer MAA properties. Five additional projects are now underway with the anticipated repricing to coincide with the prime 2026 leasing season.

儘管供應環境競爭更加激烈，但考慮到額外的周轉時間，這些翻新單位的平均租賃速度比未翻新單位快 10 天。我們預計到 2025 年仍將翻新約 6,000 間單元房。對於我們的公共區域和配套設施重新定位計劃，我們正在繼續對 6 個近期項目進行重新定價，其中 5 個項目的重新定價已經過半。到目前為止，結果令人鼓舞，淨營業收入收益率達到兩位數，租金成長遠超過同類 MAA 物業。目前還有五個項目正在進行中，預計將在 2026 年租賃旺季進行重新定價。

We are live on five 2025 retrofit projects for community-wide WiFi with go live base planned through the remainder of 2025 at an additional 15 communities.

我們正在推動 5 個 2025 年社區 WiFi 改造項目，並計劃在 2025 年剩餘時間內為另外 15 個社區提供上線服務。

As we approach the end of October, our current occupancy is 95.6% and 60-day exposure at 6.1%, 20 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively, better than this time last year, which keeps us in a position for stable occupancy heading into the slower traffic season.

十月即將結束，我們目前的入住率為 95.6%，60 天風險敞口分別為 6.1%、20 個基點和 30 個基點，均比去年同期有所改善，這使我們能夠在淡季到來之前保持穩定的入住率。

As Brad referenced, new supply pressure continues to moderate and absorption remains strong with market-level occupancies including lease-ups at the highest level since mid-2019. Our theme of strong renewal performance continued in the fourth quarter with higher retention rates and lease-over-lease growth rates on renewals accepted for October, November, December, ranging between plus 4.5% and plus 4.9%. Moderating construction starts, Sunbelt market, demand dynamics and high retention rates underlie our optimism for an improving leasing environment, particularly as we get into the spring and summer leasing season of 2026.

正如布拉德所提到的，新增供應壓力持續緩和，市場吸收量依然強勁，包括新租房在內的市場入住率達到 2019 年年中以來的最高水準。第四季度，我們強勁的續租業績得以延續，10 月、11 月和 12 月的續租續租率和租期成長率均有所提高，增幅在 4.5% 到 4.9% 之間。適度的建築開工量、陽光地帶市場、需求動態和高續租率，使我們對租賃環境的改善持樂觀態度，尤其是在我們進入 2026 年春夏租賃旺季之際。

That's all I have in the way of prepared comments. Now I'll turn the call over to Clay.

這就是我準備好的全部發言稿。現在我把電話交給克萊。

Thank you, Tim, and good morning, everyone. We reported core FFO for the quarter of $2.16 per diluted share, which was in line with the midpoint of our third quarter guidance. Favorable overhead expenses of $0.01 and same-store expenses of $0.05 and were offset by unfavorable same-store revenues of $0.05 and non-same-store expenses of $0.01.

謝謝你，提姆，大家早安。本季核心FFO為每股攤薄收益2.16美元，與我們第三季預期中位數一致。有利的間接費用為 0.01 美元，同店費用為 0.05 美元，但被不利的同店收入 0.05 美元和非同店費用 0.01 美元所抵消。

As Tim alluded to in his comments, our occupancy and renewal lease performance remained strong and were in line with our projections for the quarter while new lease rates performed below our expectations. During the quarter, we funded approximately $78 million in development cost for our current $797 million pipeline, leaving an expected $254 million to be funded on the current pipeline over the next 3 years.

正如提姆在他的評論中所提到的，我們的入住率和續約業績依然強勁，符合我們對本季的預測，而新租約的業績則低於我們的預期。本季度，我們為目前價值 7.97 億美元的專案儲備金投入了約 7,800 萬美元的開發成本，預計未來 3 年內，該專案儲備金還需投入 2.54 億美元。

Our balance sheet remains well positioned to support these and other future growth opportunities.

我們的資產負債表依然穩健，足以支持這些以及其他未來的成長機會。

At the end of the quarter, we had $815 million in combined cash and borrowing capacity under our revolving credit facility and our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 4.2x. At quarter end, our outstanding debt was approximately 91% fixed with an average maturity of 6.3 years at an effective rate of 3.8%. Subsequent to quarter end, we amended our revolving credit facility, increasing the capacity of the facility from $1.25 billion to $1.5 billion and extending the maturity of the facility to January 2030. In addition, we amended our commercial paper program to increase the maximum amount of outstanding commercial paper borrowings to $750 million. We have an upcoming $400 million bond maturity in November that we expect to refinance in the fourth quarter.

截至季末，我們擁有8.15億美元的現金及循環信貸額度，淨負債與EBITDA比率為4.2倍。截至季末，我們未償債務中約91%為固定債務，平均期限為6.3年，實際利率為3.8%。季度末之後，我們修改了循環信貸安排，將信貸額度從 12.5 億美元增加到 15 億美元，並將信貸到期日延長至 2030 年 1 月。此外，我們修改了商業票據計劃，將未償還商業票據借款的最高金額增加到 7.5 億美元。我們11月份將有4億美元的債券到期，預計在第四季進行再融資。

Finally, we have adjusted our core FFO and same-store guidance for the year as well as revised other areas of our detailed guidance previously provided. Primarily due to the lower recovery trajectory on new lease rents as the broader economy and employment markets moderated over the summer months, we are making slight adjustments to our guidance associated with same-store rent growth. We are lowering the midpoint of effective rent growth guidance to negative 0.4% while maintaining average fiscal occupancy guidance at 95.6% for the year.

最後，我們調整了本年度的核心FFO和同店銷售預期，並修訂了先前提供的詳細預期中的其他方面。主要由於夏季期間整體經濟和就業市場趨於緩和，導致新租約租金的復甦勢頭放緩，因此我們對同店租金成長的預期略作調整。我們將有效租金成長預期中位數下調至負 0.4%，同時維持全年平均財政入住率預期為 95.6%。

Total same-store revenue guidance for the year is revised to negative 0.05%. We are also lowering our same-store property operating expense growth projections for the year to 2.2% at the midpoint. The lower guidance is primarily due to favorable third quarter property tax valuations as compared to our original expectations. The changes to our same-store revenue and property operating expense projections resulted us adjusting our same-store NOI expectation to negative 1.35%.

全年同店銷售額預期調整為下降 0.05%。我們同時將今年同店物業營運費用成長預期下調至 2.2%（中位數）。下調業績預期主要是由於第三季房產稅估值高於我們最初的預期。由於我們對同店收入和物業營運費用預測進行了調整，因此我們將同店淨營業收入預期調整為負 1.35%。

In addition to updating our same-store operating projections, we are revising our 2025 guidance to reflect favorable trends in overhead expenses, along with adjusting our acquisition and disposition volume for the year given the current transactions market. The impact of these adjustments, combined with the updated expectations for our non-same-store portfolio, resulted in us adjusting the midpoint of our full year core FFO guidance to $8.74 per share and narrowing the range of $8.68 to $8.80 per share.

除了更新我們的同店營運預測外，我們還將修訂 2025 年的業績指引，以反映管理費用的有利趨勢，並根據當前的交易市場調整我們今年的收購和處置量。這些調整的影響，加上我們對非同店業務組合的最新預期，導致我們將全年核心 FFO 指引的中點調整為每股 8.74 美元，並將範圍縮小至每股 8.68 美元至 8.80 美元。

That is all that we have in the way of prepared comments. So Regina, we will now turn the call back to you for questions.

這就是我們準備好的所有評論。那麼，雷吉娜，現在我們把電話轉回給你，請你提問。

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Eric Wolfe, Citi.

[操作員說明] 我們的第一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Eric Wolfe。

A number of your peers have talked about the worsening trends in late September and into October, specifically on new leases beyond just the sort of normal seasonal curve. Can you maybe talk about recent pricing trends that you're seeing on new leases? And are there any markets that are moving abnormally at this time of year? And just sort of any thoughts on sort of how that could trend through the rest of the quarter?

許多同行都談到了 9 月下旬到 10 月期間的惡化趨勢，特別是新租約的數量超出了正常的季節性曲線。您能否談談您最近觀察到的新租賃價格趨勢？每年的這個時候，有哪些市場會出現異常波動？那麼，對於本季剩餘時間這種趨勢可能會如何發展，您有什麼看法？

Yes, Eric. This is Tim. I would say broadly, we've seen generally pretty typical seasonality. Actually on the new lease side, saw our new lease decline a little bit less than normal from Q2 to Q3. It's normally in the 60 to 70 basis point moderation. We moderated 40 basis points and then even did better on the renewal side. So I think broadly we're seeing normal seasonality. We typically see pricing kind of peak in July and then slowly moderate from there for the rest of the year as the traffic starts to die down and that's pretty much what we've seen. The trend was a little bit less seasonal, as I mentioned, but broadly happening as we would typically expect.

是的，埃里克。這是蒂姆。總的來說，我們看到的季節性變化相當典型。實際上，在新租賃方面，我們發現從第二季度到第三季度，我們的新租賃額下降幅度略小於正常水平。通常情況下，波動幅度在 60 到 70 個基點之間。我們調整了 40 個基點，而且在續約方面做得更好。所以我覺得整體上我們看到的是正常的季節性變化。我們通常看到價格在 7 月達到峰值，然後隨著客流量開始下降，價格在一年中的剩餘時間逐漸趨於穩定，而我們看到的情況也基本如此。正如我之前提到的，這種趨勢的季節性不太明顯，但總體上還是符合我們通常的預期。

In terms of markets, I mean the DC market we talked about is still on a relative basis doing well but certainly moderated a little on the new lease side. The other -- some of the laggards that I talked about have been similar. The encouraging ones have been Dallas and Atlanta both. We saw actually new lease acceleration from Q2 to Q3. And those are combined our two largest markets and seeing some encouraging trends there. But broadly normal seasonality.

就市場而言，我的意思是，我們討論過的華盛頓特區市場相對而言仍然表現良好，但新租賃方面肯定有所放緩。其他一些落後者——我之前提到的一些落後者的情況也類似。達拉斯和亞特蘭大都是令人鼓舞的例子。我們看到，從第二季度到第三季度，新租賃業務實際上加速成長。這兩個市場加起來是我們最大的兩個市場，我們看到了一些令人鼓舞的趨勢。但整體而言屬於正常的季節性變化。

That's helpful. And then could you maybe talk about any early thoughts on 2026 in terms of earning and contribution from other income? Essentially the more sort of predictable items for next year. Obviously, if you want to give your view of market rent growth, we'll take it, but I realize it's a dynamic environment.

那很有幫助。那麼，您能否談談對 2026 年的收入和其他收入貢獻的初步看法？基本上，明年比較可以預測的項目就是這些。顯然，如果您想表達您對市場租金成長的看法，我們會認真聽取，但我意識到這是一個動態變化的環境。

Hey, Eric. This is Brad. I'll start and Tim can certainly jump in here. But I think as we look at and start thinking about what '26 is likely to look like just big picture, I mean, I think really for us to start with, we talk about the demand fundamentals. And for us, everything ultimately boils down to what the demand side of the equation ultimately looks like long term. And as we look at 2026 today, we really think that the demand fundamentals look pretty similar in '26 to the way they looked this year. Whether you're looking at migration trends, population growth, household formation or just single-family affordability headwinds, we really think all of those look very, very similar next year. Clearly, the unknown for us is the job market and really what that looks like next year.

嘿，艾瑞克。這是布拉德。我先開始，提姆當然也可以馬上加入。但我認為，當我們展望並開始思考 2026 年的整體前景時，我的意思是，我認為我們首先要討論的是需求基本面。對我們來說，一切最終都取決於長期需求的最終走向。展望 2026 年，我們認為 2026 年的需求基本面與今年非常相似。無論你關注的是移民趨勢、人口成長、家庭組建，還是單戶住宅的負擔能力面臨的挑戰，我們都認為明年所有這些方面看起來都非常非常相似。顯然，對我們來說，未知數是就業市場，以及明年就業市場的真實情況。

The early projections that we see for next year show the job market looking a little bit softer than it does this year. But I think one thing to keep in mind is next year is an election year. So I do think the administration is going to be very focused on getting the tariffs kind of behind them and then really focused on job growth the balance of the year, which we think could certainly help on the job growth side. And then I think, certainly from a supply perspective, we know the supply pipeline next year is set to decline considerably from where it is this year, where next year's deliveries will be about close to a 50% drop from the peak that we had in 2024. So certainly, the picture looks a lot better on that front.

根據我們對明年的初步預測，就業市場看起來會比今年略為疲軟。但我認為需要記住的一點是，明年是選舉年。所以我認為，政府將會非常專注於解決關稅問題，然後在今年餘下的時間裡真正專注於就業成長，我們認為這肯定會有助於就業成長。而且我認為，從供應的角度來看，我們知道明年的供應量將比今年大幅下降，明年的交付量將比 2024 年的高峰下降近 50%。所以，從這方面來看，情況確實好多了。

So despite our recovery certainly not being quite as robust as what we had hoped for this year, we are making progress. And I think that progress will continue to manifest itself as we get into 2026. Tim, what would you add on the earning piece?

因此，儘管我們今年的復甦肯定沒有我們預期的那麼強勁，但我們正在取得進展。我認為，到了2026年，這種進步還會持續顯現。提姆，關於收入方面，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. On the earning piece, I mean, I think based on where we see rents at the end of this year, you're probably somewhere around flat to slightly negative, which is a little bit of improvement on where we were heading into 2025. And then last point I'll make, you asked about the other income, it will be the WiFi projects that will drive that. They've been slow to materialize this year as we wait on circuit deliveries and other things, but we've got 20 or so that we think will be live by the end of this year. And that that group as a whole, once fully rolled out, is about a $5 million NOI piece. So we'll get a piece of that. So that will be the biggest thing sort of above and beyond our normal run rate on fee and other income.

是的。關於收益方面，我的意思是，我認為根據我們對今年年底租金的預期，收益可能基本上持平或略有下降，這比我們之前預測的 2025 年的情況略有改善。最後一點，你問到了其他收入來源，那就是 WiFi 專案。今年以來，由於電路交付和其他原因，它們的實現速度比較慢，但我們預計到今年年底將有大約 20 個項目投入使用。而該集團整體而言，一旦全面展開，其淨營業收入約為 500 萬美元。所以我們會分到一部分。所以這將是我們在正常費用和其他收入之外的最大一筆額外收入。

And then just to follow up on the point on the earning. As Tim mentioned, for next year, flattish going into 2026. And just as a reminder, coming into 2025, it was a negative 40 basis points headwind. So a significant improvement going into 2026 as we sit here today.

然後，我想就收入問題再補充一點。正如蒂姆所提到的，明年到 2026 年，市場將保持穩定。提醒一下，到 2025 年，這將是 40 個基點的不利因素。因此，就我們今天所處的位置而言，到2026年將會有顯著的改善。

Our next question will come from the line of Jamie Feldman, Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的傑米·費爾德曼。

I guess following up on the guidance line of questioning. On the expense side, anything, as we think about year-over-year comparisons, anything in 2016 that we should be aware of?

我想這是在按照指導性提問方式進行後續討論。在支出方面，當我們考慮與前一年相比時，2016 年有什麼需要注意的地方嗎？

James, this is Clay. The one thing -- a couple of things that I would call out. I think starting with real estate taxes. We saw some very good favorability in our original projections for real estate taxes at this point in the year. A lot of that is due to some prior year adjustments -- some onetime prior year adjustments that we realized this year. So we'll have to anniversary that. But also thinking about the fact that we are projecting negative NOI growth for the year, so we would expect property valuations to significantly increase going into next year. So all said, we would expect real estate taxes to grow at a relatively normal rate of somewhere between 2.5%, 3.5%.

詹姆斯，這是克萊。有一點——有兩點我想特別指出。我認為應該從房地產稅開始。我們發現，今年這個時候，我們對房地產稅的最初預測出現了一些非常有利的情況。其中很大一部分原因是由於前一年的一些調整——一些我們今年才意識到的上一年一次性調整。所以我們要紀念這個日子。但同時也要考慮到我們預計今年的淨營業收入將出現負成長，因此我們預計明年房地產估值將大幅上漲。綜上所述，我們預期房地產稅將以相對正常的成長速度成長，介於 2.5% 到 3.5% 之間。

And I'm not giving guidance at this point, but just kind of where we think that's where we're probably headed at this point. Other than that, I think insurance will continue to get some tailwind from that given our recent renewal. So that will benefit us in the front half of the year and then we'll have to go through that process again next year. But I would expect, at this point any significant increases in that line, just probably normal typical run rates.

目前我不會給予具體指導，只是說說我們目前可能的發展方向。除此之外，鑑於我們最近的續約，我認為保險業將繼續從中受益。這樣一來，我們在上半年就能從中受益，但明年我們又得重複這個過程。但我認為，目前來看，該項指標的任何顯著成長可能只是正常的典型運作速率。

And then personnel, R&M costs, things of that nature. I mean, Brad mentioned the tariffs and expectation that, that gets settled here over the course of the next several months. We would think that those would typically grow in line with just typical inflationary trends. So nothing really outside of the norm for those. Should get a little bit of a benefit in marketing expenses next year as we get past the levels of supply that we've been facing this past year. And so that should tail off a bit as well.

然後還有人員配備、維修保養成本等等。我的意思是，布拉德提到了關稅問題，並預計這個問題將在未來幾個月內解決。我們認為這些成長通常會與典型的通貨膨脹趨勢保持一致。所以對這些人來說，沒有特別出格的地方。明年，隨著我們擺脫去年面臨的供應短缺問題，行銷費用應該會有所下降。所以這種情況也應該會逐漸減弱。

So all in all, I don't want to speak to overall guidance, but that's kind of how we're thinking about those items.

總而言之，我不想就整體指導方針發表評論，但這就是我們對這些問題的思考方式。

I might add one point real quick just on the utility side. We talked about the WiFi projects a minute ago. There is an expense component that hits in that utilities line. It's obviously a much larger revenue component, but that will impact utilities a little bit as well.

我還要補充一點，就實用性方面而言。我們剛才還在討論WiFi專案。公用事業費用項包含一項支出。這顯然是一筆更大的收入來源，但也會對公用事業公司產生一些影響。

Okay. Great. Super helpful color. And then just thinking about concessions in some of your bigger development markets or heavier supply markets. How would you -- what's the scorecard on the pace of concessions today? Is it getting better? Is it getting worse? Anything you'd call out there?

好的。偉大的。非常實用的顏色。然後，再考慮一下在一些規模較大的開發市場或供應量較大的市場中做出讓步。您認為目前各方讓步的速度如何？情況好轉了嗎？情況是否正在惡化？有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes. I would say, broadly, concessions in Q3 were a little bit higher than what we were in Q2. When we look at our comps there is probably 55%, 60% or so of our comps have some sort of specials, and that's up a little bit from what it was in Q2 but not significantly. I think the level of concessions at a given property is pretty similar. You're seeing anywhere from half a month to a month free is pretty typical with a little bit higher in some of the highest supplied submarkets.

是的。總的來說，我認為第三季的讓步幅度比第二季略高。當我們查看我們的競爭對手時，大約 55% 到 60% 的競爭對手都推出了某種特價活動，這比第二季度略有上升，但上升幅度不大。我認為同一房產提供的優惠力道都相當相似。通常情況下，半個月到一個月的免費期限比較常見，在一些供應量最高的細分市場，免費期還會更長。

We've seen a couple of submarkets really came down. I mentioned Atlanta earlier. We've seen a little bit lower concessions in Buckhead. Uptown Dallas, we're seeing a little bit lower concessions. So it's actually some of the more urban submarkets we've seen concessions come down a little bit. And then we've seen it up a little bit in Phoenix, a little bit in suburban Orlando, a little bit in downtown Nashville, but broadly ticked up a little bit but not hugely different than what we've been seeing.

我們看到一些細分市場確實出現了大幅下滑。我之前提到過亞特蘭大。我們在巴克海德看到的優惠力道略小。在達拉斯上城區，我們看到優惠力道略低一些。所以實際上，我們看到一些城市郊區市場的優惠力道下降。然後，我們看到鳳凰城、奧蘭多郊區、納許維爾市中心的病例略有上升，總體上略有上升，但與我們之前看到的情況並沒有太大不同。

Our next question will come from the line of Adam Kramer, Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的亞當·克萊默。

Maybe I just wanted to ask about sort of lease up for your development properties and maybe just how the cadence of that today compares to lease-up cadence maybe 6 months ago or the same time a year ago.

我只是想問一下你們開發專案的租賃情況，以及目前的租賃節奏與 6 個月前或一年前同期相比如何。

Yes. This is Tim. I mean, the leasing velocity broadly has been a little bit slower. I don't think it's necessarily gotten slower than what it has been over the last couple of quarters. I mean, we've seen obviously with the supply over the last couple of years that, that velocity has been a little bit slower to occur than what we originally underwrote. But broadly, rents are in line.

是的。這是蒂姆。我的意思是，整體租賃速度確實有所放緩。我不認為它的速度比過去幾季有所放緩。我的意思是，很明顯，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經看到供應速度比我們最初預期的要慢。但總體而言，租金水平是合理的。

When you think about the overall lease-up portfolio, we're holding tight there and keeping, as I mentioned in the comments, just keeping our value proposition in line. So broadly, leasing velocity a little bit slower than what we expected. And we pushed back one of the stabilization dates on one of our lease-up properties. But broadly, the rents are intact and feeling good. Particularly as we move into the spring and summer, we expect that as it really starts to increase on that velocity.

從整體租賃組合的角度來看，我們堅持穩步推進，正如我在評論中提到的，我們將保持我們的價值主張不變。整體而言，租賃速度比我們預期的要慢一些。我們延後了其中一個租賃物業的穩定日期。但總體而言，租金水平保持穩定，感覺良好。特別是隨著我們進入春夏季，我們預計這種情況會真正開始加速發展。

Great. And then maybe -- I know you touched on it a little bit earlier, but maybe just the specific new renewal and blended lease growth for October, if you're able to provide?

偉大的。然後，也許——我知道您之前稍微提到過，但如果您能提供的話，能否具體說明一下 10 月份的新續租和混合租賃增長情況？

We're not going to get into the details of the monthly. But I would say, generally, what we're expecting for Q4, and I mentioned this earlier, is pretty normal seasonality, perhaps a little bit less than what we typically see is as supply continues to moderate. I mentioned in the comments the renewals are holding up really well. So I think on a blended basis could be a little bit better than last year. And new lease probably trending somewhere maybe slightly better than where we were last year. But typically a normal seasonality with a little bit better performance on the renewal side.

我們就不深入探討每個月的具體細節了。但總的來說，我對第四季的預期（我之前也提到過）是相當正常的季節性變化，可能比我們通常看到的略少一些，因為供應持續趨於緩和。我在評論裡提到過，續約情況非常好。所以我覺得綜合來看，今年的情況可能會比去年略好。新租約的趨勢可能比去年略好。但通常情況下，季節性波動正常，續約方面表現會略好。

Our next question will come from the line of Steve Sakwa, Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Steve Sakwa。

I guess I wanted to circle up on the Scottsdale project. I think you mentioned that the initial yield on that was 6.1% and maybe with the new piece of land that would go to 6.5%. But your stock is kind of trading sort of in that mid-6s right now. So just how are you thinking about capital allocation, development yields? And what kind of hurdles do you need on projects going forward, given the changing cost of capital?

我想參與斯科茨代爾計畫。我想你有提到過，最初的收益率是 6.1%，加上這塊新地，收益率可能會達到 6.5%。但你的股票目前交易價格大概在 6 美元左右。那麼，您是如何考慮資本配置和開發收益的呢？考慮到資金成本的變化，您希望在未來的專案中設置哪些障礙？

Yes. Steve, this is Brad. A couple of things that I'll mention. One, just a clarification. What I mentioned in my comments was the Kansas City deal was about -- that was an acquisition, was at 5.8%. We went under contract and that back when our stock price was in the 150s. So certainly, cost of capital is a little bit different at that point. For that project, when we add the Phase 2 component to it, that will bring the total investment yield on that one to about 6.5%.

是的。史蒂夫，這位是布拉德。有幾點我想提一下。第一，澄清一下。我在評論中提到的是堪薩斯城交易——那是一筆收購，收購價為 5.8%。我們簽訂了合同，當時我們的股價在 150 美元左右。所以，那時資金成本一定會有所不同。對於該項目，當我們將其第二階段部分加入其中時，該項目的總投資收益率將達到約 6.5%。

You're correct. The Scottsdale development is about a 6.1% NOI yield. So that part is correct. But in terms of capital allocation, when we're looking to make really any decision a couple of things that we're considering. One is where is our capital coming from? What's the cost of that capital? And really what's the potential long-term impact of that investment on our business? And our primary focus in all of our decisions that we make is on generating compounded earnings growth to support a steady and growing dividend over the long term.

你說得對。斯科茨代爾開發案的淨營業收入收益率約為 6.1%。所以這部分是對的。但就資本配置而言，當我們想要做出任何決定時，我們會考慮以下幾個因素。第一個問題是，我們的資金從哪裡來？這筆資金的成本是多少？那麼，這項投資對我們業務的潛在長期影響究竟是什麼？我們所有決策的首要關注點是實現複合獲利成長，以支持長期穩定成長的股利。

I mean that's really what we, at our heart, really focused on. And if you look at the performance that we've put up in terms of dividend performance over the last 10 years, I think we've been very successful in hitting those goals. We have probably one of the highest, if not the highest 10-year CAGRs on dividend growth performance in the space, where it's at 7%. So earnings and dividends are really the best ways for us to deliver TSR on a REIT platform.

我的意思是，這才是我們真正關注的重點。如果你看看我們過去 10 年在股息方面的表現，我認為我們在實現這些目標方面非常成功。我們可能擁有業內最高的 10 年股息成長複合年增長率之一，甚至可能是最高的，達到了 7%。因此，獲利和股利是我們在 REIT 平台上實現 TSR 的最佳途徑。

But when we're looking to invest capital, we can deploy it through external growth as we were just talking about, be it development or acquisitions. We can invest in various internal opportunities that include technology investments, really geared towards strengthening our platform in driving efficiencies, improving margins of our existing portfolio or we can reinvest in our existing shares. Those are really the options that we have. And certainly, at the moment, scaling our platform from acquisitions has really gotten materially more difficult given the dislocation that we see right now between private and public markets.

但是，當我們想要投資資本時，我們可以像剛才談到的那樣，透過外部成長來部署它，無論是開發還是收購。我們可以投資各種內部機會，包括技術投資，真正致力於加強我們的平台，提高效率，改善現有投資組合的利潤率，或者我們可以再投資於我們現有的股票。這就是我們實際上擁有的全部選擇。當然，目前透過收購來擴大我們的平台規模，鑑於我們目前看到的私人市場和公共市場之間的脫節，確實變得更加困難。

But again, as I mentioned with the Kansas City, we were able to find select acquisition opportunities, but that's probably going to be even more difficult. But as I mentioned in my opening comments, we do continue to find what we believe are compelling development opportunities where we're able to achieve yields in the 6% to 6.5% range, which, if you look at that compared to our current cost of capital, it's still accretive. And if you look at it on an after-CapEx basis, it produces similar returns to what we would get if we were investing in our existing portfolio right now.

但就像我之前提到的堪薩斯城的情況一樣，我們找到了一些精選的收購機會，但這可能更加困難。但正如我在開場白中提到的，我們仍在不斷發現我們認為具有吸引力的發展機會，在這些機會中，我們能夠實現 6% 到 6.5% 的收益率，如果與我們目前的資本成本相比，這仍然是有利的。如果從扣除資本支出後的角度來看，它產生的收益與我們現在投資現有投資組合所獲得的收益類似。

But importantly, I think you have to remember that by selectively determining where we're putting some of this capital in developments, we think we're able to drive better long-term growth prospects through that capital. And certainly, with 6 to 8 projects that we think we can start over the next 6 quarters at a cost of $850 million, we have a pretty good runway for continued growth. We'll continue to lean into some of these numerous internal investment opportunities in 2026. And as Tim talked about, we're looking to expand our renovation and repositioning platforms. And so you'll continue to see us do that.

但重要的是，我認為你必須記住，透過選擇性地決定將部分資金投入到哪些開發項目中，我們認為我們能夠透過這些資金推動更好的長期成長前景。當然，我們認為未來 6 個季度可以啟動 6 到 8 個項目，總投資額為 8.5 億美元，這為我們持續成長提供了相當不錯的條件。2026年，我們將持續重視這些眾多的內部投資機會。正如蒂姆所說，我們正在尋求擴大我們的翻新和重新定位平台。所以你們還會繼續看到我們這樣做。

But having said all that, our focus is on driving long-term earnings growth and higher share value. And if we find that our best investment opportunity to do that is to invest in our existing portfolio via share repurchases, we have an authorization in place. We've done it before. And we wouldn't hesitate to do that again if conditions warranted it. So it's something that we continue to monitor in every one of our investment opportunities and we'll continue to do so.

但即便如此，我們的重點仍是推動長期獲利成長和提高股價。如果我們發現實現這一目標的最佳投資機會是透過股票回購投資於我們現有的投資組合，我們已經獲得了授權。我們以前就這麼做過。如果情況需要，我們一定會毫不猶豫地再做一次。因此，這是我們在每個投資機會中持續關注的因素，而且我們將繼續這樣做。

Okay. Maybe just as a second and maybe a follow-up. Just, I guess, taking that and maybe stretching it out a bit. Just would accelerating dispositions kind of be part of the philosophy maybe to fund both the development and potential share buybacks? It seems like pricing is pretty good in the apartment market despite some of the slowdowns we all talked about here on the leasing side. So would you lean into dispositions at this point?

好的。或許只是作為第二點，或許只是作為後續。我想，就是把這個概念稍作延伸。加速資產處置是否是公司理念的一部分，目的是為了同時為開發和潛在的股票回購提供資金？儘管我們之前討論過租賃市場的一些放緩情況，但公寓市場的定價似乎還不錯。那麼，你現在會傾向於考慮性格傾向嗎？

Yes. I mean, we definitely could. I mean, frankly, our disposition strategy is really based on trying to improve the overall quality of the portfolio while not introducing earnings volatility. So we wouldn't want to significantly scale up dispositions to take the advantage of some market level arbitrage and introduce earnings volatility. But as part of our annual strategy, we're generally looking to dispose of around $300 million worth of assets. And if we find that we can continue to do that and when we dispose of those assets, the best use of that capital is to go into share repurchases, then I think we would continue to look to do that.

是的。我的意思是，我們當然可以。坦白說，我們的資產處置策略實際上是在努力提高投資組合的整體品質的同時，避免引入收益波動。因此，我們不希望大幅增加資產處置規模，以利用市場層面的套利機會，進而引入獲利波動。但作為我們年度策略的一部分，我們通常會尋求處置價值約 3 億美元的資產。如果我們發現可以繼續這樣做，並且在處置這些資產時，將這些資金用於股票回購是最佳選擇，那麼我認為我們會繼續這樣做。

From my perspective, the share buyback is really an alternative based on current cost of capital. Current returns is an alternative to what we would do with that disposition capital, where normally we would roll it back into the acquisition market. And that's just not a broad opportunity for us at the moment.

在我看來，股票回購實際上是基於當前資本成本的替代方案。目前的收益是我們處理處置資金的另一個選擇，通常我們會把這筆資金重新投入收購市場。而目前這對我們來說並不是一個普遍的機會。

Our next question will come from the line of Jana Galan, Bank of America.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Jana Galan。

Following up on your comments on the transaction market and seeing assets trading at sub-5 cap rates. Can you help us understand how investors are underwriting the rent growth at this point in the Sunbelt recovery and maybe the types of financing they have available to them to get them there?

關於您之前對交易市場的評論，以及看到資產交易的資本化率低於 5%，我對此表示贊同。您能否幫助我們了解投資者在陽光地帶經濟復甦的現階段是如何看待租金成長的，以及他們有哪些融資管道來實現這一目標？

Sure. I think the #1 driver right now from the deals that we're looking at of those cap rates is the cost of capital. I think if you look today where folks are generally able to get 5-year money today from the agencies is probably in the maybe 5.25% range, maybe just under that. And most folks are able to buy down the rate by 25, 30 basis points. And so by the time they do that, they're at a sub-5% interest rate.

當然。我認為，目前我們正在研究的交易中，影響資本化率的首要因素是資本成本。我認為，如果你看看現在人們通常能從機構獲得5年期貸款的比例，可能在5.25%左右，甚至可能略低於這個數字。而且大多數人都能將利率降低 25 到 30 個基點。因此，到那時，他們的利率就低於 5% 了。

And then at that point, they're generally underwriting a couple of years of a little bit more aggressive rent growth to get their returns to make sense. But I would say the #1 driver is, just given where the cost of capital is today, it's really supporting cap rates to be sub-5% and especially when you layer on to that the buy down of the rate.

然後到了那個時候，他們通常會為未來幾年更激進的租金成長提供資金，以使他們的回報有意義。但我認為，首要驅動因素是，鑑於目前的資本成本，資本化率確實會低於 5%，尤其是在利率下調的情況下。

And then kind of a different topic, but you guys have always been very strong in your Google scores and reviews. I'm curious kind of how you're implementing AI and looking at different ways as search moves more over to those types of platforms to kind of continue this reputation that you have out there.

然後，我想聊點別的，你們的Google評分和評價一直都非常好。我很好奇你們是如何應用人工智慧的，以及隨著搜尋越來越多地轉移到這類平台，你們是如何探索不同的方法來維持你們在市場上的良好聲譽的。

This is Tim. Yes, I'm glad you brought the reviews. We continue to do really well there. We're #1 in the sector, 4.7 or so is our average with a lot of volume. So we put a lot of emphasis on that. I mean, in terms of our use of AI, I mean, we're using it obviously in multiple areas of the company, and it's something that we're expanding more now as we think about leasing and some of the communications. And we'll have some more pilots and tests on that as we get into next year. So obviously, a key part of our go-forward platform is to continue to look at all the various pieces of that.

這是蒂姆。是的，很高興你帶來了評論。我們在那裡一直做得非常好。我們在業界排名第一，平均成交量在 4.7 左右，成交量很大。所以我們非常重視這一點。我的意思是，就我們對人工智慧的使用而言，我們顯然在公司的多個領域都使用它，隨著我們考慮租賃和一些通訊領域，我們正在進一步擴展它的應用。明年我們還會進行更多相關的試點和測試。顯然，我們未來發展平台的關鍵部分是繼續審視其中的各個方面。

Our next question will come from the line of Austin Wurschmidt, KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Austin Wurschmidt。

You talked about how 2026 could look a lot like '25 from a demand perspective and supply obviously coming down pretty meaningfully. I guess should we just continue to see lease rate growth improve versus the prior year? Or I guess, asked a little bit differently, should schedule rent continue to accelerate from here into 2026?

你談到從需求角度來看，2026 年可能會與 2025 年非常相似，而供應顯然會大幅下降。我想我們是否應該繼續看到租賃率成長較上年有所改善？或者換個角度問，租金是否應該從現在到 2026 年繼續加速上漲？

Austin, it's Tim. Yes. I mean, I think we're back in terms of the normal seasonality. I think this year has been the most seasonal that we've seen in the last few years. And I think generally that seasonality will hold as you strengthen through the spring and summer and then moderate a little bit into the fall and winter. So I mean, I think -- we're obviously not giving guidance right now.

奧斯汀，我是提姆。是的。我的意思是，我認為我們已經恢復了正常的季節性規律。我認為今年是近年來季節性最強的一年。而且我認為，整體而言，這種季節性規律會一直持續下去，春夏季節會逐漸增強，然後秋冬季節會稍微減弱。所以我的意思是，我認為——我們顯然現在不會給出指導意見。

But when you think about how much supply is moderating and what the construction starts and we're expecting deliveries next year to be significantly down from where they were this year and with a similar demand environment that we have right now, which is significant, if you look at any of the demand variables, whether it's job growth, household formation, immigration, our region in the country, while perhaps a little bit weaker than it was earlier this year and expectations for next year a little bit weaker, is materially stronger than the rest of the country.

但考慮到供應量正在放緩，以及開工建設的情況，我們預計明年的交付量將比今年大幅下降，而需求環境與目前類似（這一點非常重要），如果你觀察任何需求變量，無論是就業增長、家庭組建還是移民，我們所在的地區雖然可能比今年早些時候略顯疲軟，對明年的預期也略顯疲軟，但仍然明顯疲軟，但仍然明顯疲軟，對明年的預期也略顯疲軟，但仍然明顯疲軟，但仍然明顯疲軟。

So when you balance that relative demand with rapidly decreasing supply, I think you see a normal seasonal curve but a much steeper curve to where we see some new lease rents start to accelerate. Would expect our renewals to hang in where they are. We can see how for the next 3 months or so, that those are continuing to holding strong. So yes. I continue to expect that strength is what we'd expect, enhanced strength, if you will, as we get into 2026.

因此，當相對需求與快速減少的供應達到平衡時，我認為你會看到正常的季節性曲線，但曲線會陡峭得多，以至於我們看到一些新的租賃租金開始加速上漲。預計續約率將維持在目前水準。我們可以看到，在接下來的三個月左右的時間裡，這些趨勢將繼續保持強勁。是的。我仍然認為，隨著我們進入 2026 年，這種實力將會像我們預期的那樣增強。

Helpful. And then just going back to the sequential improvement you flagged around Atlanta and Dallas. I guess was this just as simple as less competition from supply? Was there a comp issue? And then are there any markets that you'd highlight that are on the cusp of seeing kind of a similar dynamic that you referenced in Atlanta and Dallas, that sort of sequential acceleration from 2Q to 3Q and new lease rate growth?

很有幫助。然後，我們再回到你之前提到的亞特蘭大和達拉斯的連續改進。我猜想這是否僅僅是因為供應競爭減少？是否有薪酬問題？那麼，您認為還有哪些市場即將出現與您在亞特蘭大和達拉斯提到的類似的動態，即從第二季到第三季的連續加速成長以及新租約價格的成長？

Yes. For Atlanta and Dallas, what we saw particularly was some improved performance in the more urban in town. So we obviously have several properties in uptown Dallas that we sold, did better. And then we have a fair amount of exposure in Midtown, Downtown and Buckhead, Atlanta, and that's where we're really starting to see some -- that inflection point where those are the submarkets they got most of the supply. They're starting to work through that. Concessions are coming down.

是的。對於亞特蘭大和達拉斯，我們尤其看到城市城區的一些表現有所改善。所以很明顯，我們在達拉斯市中心有幾處房產已經售出，而且賣得很好。然後，我們在亞特蘭大的 Midtown、Downtown 和 Buckhead 地區也有相當多的投資，而我們正是在這些地區開始看到一些轉折點，這些子市場獲得了大部分的供應。他們正在著手解決這個問題。讓步正在減少。

So certainly there's a comp issue there but there's just a general performance improvement there as well as they absorb that supply. Atlanta is one of our highest absorption markets over the last 4 quarters of any of them. So those are the 2 that I would call out.

所以，雖然有競爭問題，但隨著供應量的增加，整體效能也有所提升。在過去四個季度中，亞特蘭大是我們吸收量最高的市場之一。所以，我要特別指出這兩點。

There's not any others at the moment where we're seeing. Obviously, Q2 to Q3, [ operation ] is a little bit opposite of normal seasonalities. So we're not seeing a lot that completely booked that trend like Dallas and Atlanta did, but the ones that have continued to be strong, have done that, the markets I mentioned. And the Carolinas continue to be strong. But Dallas and Atlanta are certainly the standouts.

目前我們還沒有發現其他類似的情況。顯然，第二季度到第三季度，[營運情況]與正常的季節性略有相反。所以，我們沒有看到很多像達拉斯和亞特蘭大那樣完全把握住這種趨勢的城市，但那些持續強勁增長的城市，也就是我提到的那些市場，確實做到了這一點。卡羅萊納州始終保持強勁勢頭。但達拉斯和亞特蘭大無疑是最突出的。

Our next question will come from the line of Nick Yulico, Scotiabank.

下一個問題將來自加拿大豐業銀行的尼克·尤利科。

So I guess, first off, on the negative 5% new lease rate growth in the quarter, how much is that number being impacted by concessions, meaning like if you just lifted all concessions? Is there any way to give a feel for what that number would look like?

所以我想，首先，關於本季新租賃率下降 5% 的情況，這個數字在多大程度上受到優惠政策的影響？也就是說，如果取消所有優惠政策會怎麼樣？有沒有辦法讓人大致了解這個數字會是什麼樣子？

Well, I'll tell you this, Nick. In terms of cash concessions this quarter, ours was about 0.6%, 0.7% of rents for our portfolio. So that can give you some idea. Obviously, we spread concessions throughout the term of the lease, but that can give you a little bit of insight into that.

好吧，我告訴你，尼克。本季現金讓步約為我們投資組合租金的 0.6% 至 0.7%。這可以給你一些啟發。顯然，我們會在整個租賃期內逐步提供優惠，但這可以讓你對此有所了解。

Okay. And then second question is, if I go back to the original guidance for the year. And you had that bridge of FFO per share benefit and there's that bucket of development lease-up and other non-same-store NOI, which was originally said to be a $0.20 benefit this year. I wanted to see if that's still the same number in the new guidance.

好的。第二個問題是，如果我恢復到當年的原始指引。而且，你還獲得了每股 FFO 收益的過渡性收益，以及開發租賃和其他非同店 NOI 的收益，這原本預計今年將帶來 0.20 美元的收益。我想看看新指南中這個數字是否仍然相同。

And then secondly, if there's any way to give a feel for if you just stabilized all the developments or lease-up assets in that pool, like how much extra annual FFO per share benefit would that be from that entire pool?

其次，有沒有辦法衡量一下，如果將該資產池中的所有開發案或租賃資產穩定下來，該資產池的每股年度 FFO 能帶來多少額外收益？

Yes. Nick, this is Clay. To your point, we introduced the guidance coming into the year with that pool of the portfolio of benefiting about $0.20 for the full year. Going back to the discussion that Tim had with just the longer leasing velocity that we've seen with those properties, and it hasn't been quite that strong but it has been a positive benefit to us over the course of the year.

是的。尼克，我是克萊。正如您所說，我們在年初就提出了相關指導意見，預計該投資組合全年收益約為 0.20 美元。回到 Tim 之前討論的那些房產較長的租賃週期，雖然租賃速度沒有那麼強勁，但在過去一年中，這對我們來說是一個積極的好處。

Now where you think about those and when they fully stabilize and are generating ongoing NOI growth, those properties on a year-to-year basis, we expect to be anywhere between $0.10 and $0.12 of earnings growth after considering what the cost of capital is running. So that's kind of what we would see on a long-term basis. And I'm talking specifically about sort of $0.10 to $0.12, really our development and lease-up portfolio itself.

現在想想這些物業，當它們完全穩定下來並持續產生淨營業收入成長時，考慮到目前的資本成本，我們預計這些物業的年收益成長將在 0.10 美元到 0.12 美元之間。所以從長遠來看，這大概就是我們會看到的趨勢。我指的是具體金額在 0.10 到 0.12 美元之間的項目，也就是我們自己的開發和租賃項目組合。

Keep in mind, there are some other things in that non-same-store pool that our stabilized properties, properties that haven't moved into the same-store pool. But when I mentioned the $0.10 to $0.12 kind of our current development lease-up pipeline, that's going to contribute another $0.10 to $0.12 in a given year.

請記住，非同店房源池中還有一些其他的東西，例如我們已穩定營運的房產，這些房產尚未進入同店房源池。但是，當我提到我們目前開發租賃項目每套價值 0.10 至 0.12 美元的項目時，這意味著每年將再貢獻 0.10 至 0.12 美元。

Our next question will come from the line of Michael Goldsmith, UBS.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧戈德史密斯。

This is Ami on with Michael. I was wondering, was there any change in your fourth quarter forecast? Or do the updated same-store revenue guide mainly bake in just the softer third quarter?

這是Ami和Michael的連線。我想問一下，你們第四季的預測有改變嗎？或者說，更新後的同店營收預期主要反映了第三季疲軟的業績？

Yes. This is Tim. We brought down -- I mean, we adjusted the new lease rates for Q4 forecast based on what we saw in Q3, actually brought up our rates a little bit but brought down the new lease rates. But in terms of forecast, it's really carrying through the Q3 new lease rates as have more of an impact, obviously, but broadly just brought down the new lease run rate a little bit.

是的。這是蒂姆。我們降低了——我的意思是，我們根據第三季的情況調整了第四季度的新租賃價格預測，實際上我們稍微提高了價格，但降低了新租賃價格。但就預測而言，第三季的新租賃價格確實產生了更大的影響，顯然，總體而言，只是稍微降低了新租賃的運行速度。

Got it. And then where do you ultimately see the balance between your large and mid-tier markets? Are there any other markets that you're targeting for acquisitions? And how do cap rates broadly across these markets compared with some of the larger markets?

知道了。那麼，您最終如何看待大型市場和中型市場之間的平衡呢？你們還有其他目標收購市場嗎？與一些規模較大的市場相比，這些市場的資本化率整體狀況如何？

Tim, do you want to hit on the performance between those two markets?

提姆，你想談談這兩個市場之間的表現差異嗎？

Yes. Yes. In terms of what we're seeing in the performance between the two, I mean the mid-tier markets broadly have done a little bit better and they continue to do slightly better. I mentioned several of them in the prepared comments. But we are starting to see that dynamic narrow a little bit, as I mentioned, with Dallas and Atlanta and some other. We're starting to see that performance narrow a bit and would expect that to continue to squeeze as we saw most of the supply over the last couple of years or more of the supply focused on some of those larger markets and some of those more urban submarkets.

是的。是的。就兩者之間的表現而言，我的意思是，中端市場總體上表現得略好一些，而且這種好勢頭還在持續。我在準備好的評論中提到了其中幾位。但正如我所提到的，我們開始看到這種動態有所收窄，達拉斯、亞特蘭大和其他一些城市就是例證。我們開始看到這種表現有所收窄，而且預計這種收窄趨勢還會繼續下去，因為在過去幾年或更長時間裡，大部分供應都集中在一些較大的市場和一些更城市化的次級市場。

Yes. And in terms of where we're looking to deploy capital, I mean, I think it's both the large and mid-tier markets. I mean we like our current exposure between those markets where we are, I think, we have 70% or so of our allocation to large markets and about 30% to the mid-tier markets. So you'll see us continue to try to maintain that by deploying capital similar to that in the large and mid-tier markets.

是的。至於我們希望將資金部署到哪裡，我認為既包括大型市場，也包括中型市場。我的意思是，我們喜歡我們目前在這些市場中的投資配置，我認為，我們大約 70% 的資金配置在大市場，大約 30% 的資金配置在中型市場。因此，你會看到我們將繼續努力維持這種局面，在大中型市場投入與大中型市場類似的資金。

But clearly, as we talked about a moment ago, acquisitions, it's tough for us right now. So mainly focused on doing that through development. But in terms of pricing differentials between those markets, really not much. I mean, we're really seeing similar cap rates for similar quality assets across those markets.

但很顯然，正如我們剛才討論的那樣，收購目前對我們來說很困難。所以主要集中精力透過開發來實現這一點。但就這些市場之間的價格差異而言，其實並不大。我的意思是，我們看到這些市場中品質相近的資產的資本化率確實很相似。

Our next question will come from the line of Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Haendel St. Juste, Mizuho 的系列。

Let's see what I got left here. So maybe one on -- I think you mentioned earlier that you're seeing new starts on an LTM basis now around 1.8% of stock, I think you mentioned, which is half the long-term average. But I'm curious how that figure is trending. It sounds like it's picking up from where we were earlier this year. So I guess my question is, what's your sense of private developers' ability to obtain financing, get underwriting, getting their underwriting to clear their hurdles and if that's getting any better with the lower cost of debt we've seen here.

讓我看看我還剩下什麼。所以也許其中一點——我想你之前提到過，目前新開工項目佔庫存的1.8%左右，我想你也提到過，這只有長期平均水平的一半。但我很好奇這個數字的變化趨勢。聽起來情況正在好轉，比今年早些時候的情況有所好轉。所以我想問的是，您認為私人開發商獲得融資、獲得承保、克服承保障礙的能力如何？隨著我們目前看到的債務成本降低，這種情況是否有所改善？

Haendel, this is Brad. In terms of the trend of starts per quarter that we're seeing is, I mean, that trend actually just continues to come down. The trailing 12-month starts in our region, as I mentioned, was [ 1.8% ] which implies 45 basis points or so per quarter. Last quarter, third quarter, it was [ 0.2% ]. So we're seeing that trend generally come down. And I think that those numbers really track with the anecdotal evidence and information that we get from our partners, from the developers that we partner with.

亨德爾，這位是布萊德。就我們目前看到的每季開賽次數趨勢而言，我的意思是，這種趨勢實際上一直在持續下降。正如我之前提到的，我們地區過去 12 個月的開工率為 [ 1.8% ]，這意味著每季大約成長 45 個基點。上個季度，第三季度，是[ 0.2% ]所以我們看到這種趨勢總體上正在下降。我認為這些數字與我們從合作夥伴、與我們合作的開發人員那裡獲得的軼事證據和資訊非常吻合。

I mean, what we continue to hear from them is it is getting more difficult to raise capital than it is. It's certainly not getting easier. It's getting more and more difficult. Even with the backdrop of interest rates coming down, we're certainly hearing some of the smaller developers are having trouble even getting bank financing at this point. The large developers can get bank financing but they're having a hard time getting equity in the current environment.

我的意思是，我們不斷聽到他們說，現在籌資比以前越來越難了。情況肯定沒有變得更容易。越來越難了。即使在利率下降的背景下，我們確實聽到一些小型開發商目前甚至難以獲得銀行融資。大型開發商可以獲得銀行貸款，但在當前環境下，他們很難獲得股權融資。

And then just based on the results that we're seeing on the deals like the Scottsdale, Arizona project, the Richmond project we started last year, I mean, we continue to see opportunities for us to step into developments where someone bought the land, achieved entitlements, sometimes got plans but then could not get their financing lined up. We just continue to see more and more opportunities in that area. Some of those still don't underwrite for us but some do. So just broadly speaking, it seems like it's getting more difficult to put a shovel in the ground than it has been.

然後，僅根據我們在亞利桑那州斯科茨代爾項目、去年啟動的里士滿項目等交易中看到的結果來看，我們不斷看到機會進入開發項目，在這些項目中，有人購買了土地，獲得了許可，有時甚至有了規劃，但後來卻無法落實融資。我們不斷看到該領域湧現越來越多的機會。有些公司仍然不為我們提供擔保，但有些公司會。總的來說，現在想動手挖土似乎比以前更難了。

Got it. I appreciate the color there, Brad. And then one more, maybe. Just also a bit of a follow-up from last quarter. I think you mentioned where you said you'd be willing to lean into debt a bit more given the lower cost that you had about $1 billion of buying power with your leverage down around 4x debt to EBITDA. I guess I'm curious if that view might be changing, evolving at all given the softer macro, the pricing that you're seeing out there, I don't think cap rates to budge at all really and maybe other opportunities you might be considering. So I guess I'm curious, that view on leaning into leverage to acquire assets, how that might be different today versus maybe 90 days ago.

知道了。布拉德，我很喜歡那裡的顏色。或許還會再來一個。也算是對上個季度情況的一點後續跟進。我想你曾經提到過，鑑於槓桿率（債務與 EBITDA 之比約為 4 倍）降低了成本，你擁有約 10 億美元的購買力，因此你願意更多地依賴債務。我很好奇，鑑於宏觀經濟疲軟、目前的市場定價，這種觀點是否可能會有所改變或發展。我認為資本化率根本不會有任何變化，或許您還在考慮其他機會。所以我很好奇，對於利用槓桿收購資產的看法，如今與 90 天前相比會有什麼不同。

Yes. I mean, I think, yes, I think based on our current cost of capital, you generally won't see us much at current pricing. So I mean, the pricing that we would have to be able to achieve on an acquisition would have to be substantially different than it was just a few months ago. And so you probably won't see us lean into acquisitions in any way, shape or form at the moment.

是的。我的意思是，我認為，是的，我認為根據我們目前的資金成本，你通常不會看到我們以目前的價格推出太多產品。所以我的意思是，我們收購時能夠達到的價格必須與幾個月前的價格有很大的不同。因此，目前你可能不會看到我們以任何方式、任何形式進行收購。

But I do think from a funding perspective, what you'll see us do is lean into debt funding for our development pipeline. We'll continue to fund that as we talked about generally through our commercial paper program. And then once we get our debt to a certain level, we'll then look to go and issue bonds to clear that up. So that's generally how we'll continue to look to finance the business right now at 4.2x. We could continue to expand the balance sheet to somewhere in the 4.5%, 5% range, keep it in that range and be completely fine with our credit rating agencies.

但我認為從資金角度來看，我們將更依賴債務融資來支持我們的開發案。我們將繼續透過商業票據計劃為該項目提供資金，正如我們之前所討論的那樣。然後，一旦我們的債務達到一定水平，我們就會考慮發行債券來償還債務。所以，目前我們大致會繼續以4.2倍的比率為公司融資。我們可以繼續擴大資產負債表，將比率提高到4.5%到5%的區間，並保持在這個範圍內，這樣我們的信用評級機構就不會有任何問題。

So we'll continue to move forward with that type of strategy.

所以我們會繼續推進這種策略。

Our next question will come from the line of Brad Heffern, RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的布拉德·赫弗恩。

One of your peers talked on their call about how Sunbelt lease ups are seeing challenges removing concessions when it comes time for the first renewal. Just curious if that's a dynamic that you've seen in your own lease ups and is that a source of any broader pressure.

你的一位同行在電話會議上談到，在陽光地帶的租賃業務中，首次續約時取消優惠條件面臨挑戰。我只是好奇，您在自己的租賃過程中是否也遇到過這種情況，這是否會成為更廣泛的壓力來源。

I mean certainly, when you start having those renewals turn, that is the most difficult part of the lease-up where you're trying to keep the back door shut and have more people coming in the front door. So we have seen that a little bit. I mean, I think more broadly, we're just seeing the concession environment stay elevated, if you will, despite -- I made this comment in my prepared comments that despite continuing increasing occupancies we've seen 5 straight quarters where market level occupancy has increased in our markets. The concession environment stays pretty elevated. And I think that just speaks to the uncertainty that is out there right now. So it is impacting the lease ups a little bit as well and driving that slower leasing velocity that we talked about.

我的意思是，當然，當續租開始的時候，租賃過程中最困難的部分就是你要努力關上後門，讓更多的人從前門進來。所以我們已經略微看到了這一點。我的意思是，更廣泛地說，我們看到特許經營環境仍然居高不下，儘管——我在準備好的評論中提到，儘管入住率持續上升，但我們已經連續 5 個季度看到我們市場的市場水平入住率有所上升。特許經營環境依然相當優越。我認為這恰恰反映了當前存在的不確定性。所以這也對租賃成長產生了一定影響，並導致了我們之前討論過的租賃速度放緩。

Brad, this is Brad. Just one point that I would add with regard to our lease ups. In terms of our renewals on our lease ups, they're performing in line with our existing portfolio generally in terms of retention rates. But the renewal rates that we've been able to get is about 11% in the third quarter on our lease-up properties. So we are getting really good traction there on the renewal side. So I wouldn't think that the hangover of the concession side of things on our renewals has been impacting us, especially in the third quarter.

布拉德，我是布拉德。關於我們的租賃升級，我還有一點要補充。就我們的續租情況而言，就續租率而言，它們的表現與我們現有的投資組合總體上保持一致。但我們第三季租賃物業的續租率約為 11%。所以，我們在續約方面取得了非常好的進展。因此，我認為續約方面讓步的後遺症並沒有對我們造成影響，尤其是在第三季。

Okay. And then maybe I missed it, but can you give the current gain or loss lease?

好的。然後，也許我錯過了，但您能提供當前的損益租賃情況嗎？

Yes. We're at a gain to lease of around 1% right now, which is not too unusual given this time of the year.

是的。目前我們的租賃收益率約為 1%，考慮到每年的這個時候，這並不太不尋常。

Our next question will come from the line of Connor Mitchell, Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Connor Mitchell 和 Piper Sandler 的陣容。

I appreciate all the commentary on the pricing in the markets. I guess we kind of would have thought that maybe the smaller markets would have been insulated from some of the pressure that the larger markets are facing, but it sounds like that's kind of dwindling. On the other side of the equation, could you just talk about what you're seeing, any differentiations between the demand factors for some of those mid-tier markets versus the larger markets and how that's impacting performance?

感謝大家對市場價格的評論。我原本以為，規模較小的市場或許能夠免受規模較大的市場所面臨的一些壓力，但聽起來這種情況正在逐漸消失。另一方面，您能否談談您觀察到的情況，例如一些中型市場與大型市場的需求因素有何不同，以及這些差異如何影響績效？

Not really anything different. I mean, our strongest markets for several quarters now have been markets like Charleston and Greenville and Richmond, which still on a relative basis have gotten a fair amount of supply. But there's huge demand drivers there as well. And some of our best job growth -- I think Charleston right now is our best job growth market that we have. So there's still a ton of demand there even with the supply scenarios.

其實沒什麼不同。我的意思是，過去幾個季度以來，我們最強勁的市場一直是查爾斯頓、格林維爾和里士滿等市場，這些市場相對而言仍然獲得了相當多的供應。但那裡也存在著巨大的需求驅動因素。而且，我認為查爾斯頓目前是我們就業成長最快的市場。所以即使在目前的供應情況下，需求仍然非常旺盛。

But as I mentioned, I think we're starting to see -- I don't think it's a lack of strength in the secondary or mid-tier. It's more of some strengthening in some of the larger markets where they've started to work through some of those concessions. They started to get the net absorption. And I think it's more a function of like Dallas and Atlanta, as I mentioned, on the way up versus some of the mid-tiers coming down.

但正如我所提到的，我認為我們開始看到——我不認為這是二線或中端球隊實力不足的問題。在一些較大的市場，情況則更為樂觀，因為他們已經開始逐步消除一些讓步。他們開始獲得淨吸收率。我認為這更多是由於像達拉斯和亞特蘭大這樣的球隊正在崛起，而一些中等水平的球隊則在衰落。

Okay. That makes sense. And then maybe following kind of the same line but again switching to the supply side of it. It does seem like the supply will be coming down compared to this year and past couple of years. But it's just kind of dragging out from what we expected earlier in the year, even in the mid-summer.

好的。這很有道理。然後或許可以沿著類似的思路，但再次切換到供給面。與今年和過去幾年相比，供應量似乎會下降。但即便到了盛夏，情況還是比我們年初的預期慢一些。

Do you see kind of the extending of supply just dragging out having more of an impact on some of the larger markets than you expected earlier this year? Or just what kind of supply pressure are you kind of expecting now versus earlier in the year, especially from the larger markets, but overall as well?

您是否認為供應延長的局面會比您今年早些時候預期的對一些大型市場產生更大的影響？或者說，您預計目前的供應壓力與今年稍早相比會有多大變化，尤其是在大型市場，但總體而言又會如何變化？

Yes. I mean on the supply side, I don't think it's moved a ton in terms of our expectations on what that impact is going to be. I mean, I think some of the weakening we've seen in new lease pricing has been more a function of some of the job growth numbers and what we talked about before. So a little bit weaker demand, but certainly much stronger in our region in the country. So the absorption continues to be great.

是的。我的意思是，就供應方面而言，我認為它並沒有比我們預期的影響更大。我的意思是，我認為我們看到的新租賃價格走弱更多是由於就業成長數據以及我們之前討論過的內容造成的。所以需求略有減弱，但在我們地區乃至全國範圍內肯定要強勁得多。所以吸收效果依然很好。

I mean, we've got 5 straight quarters I mentioned of increasing occupancies in our markets. There's been about 300,000 apartments absorbed over the last 5 quarters in our markets. So that continues to hold up strong. So assuming demand kind of hangs in where it is now, we would expect this to continue to get better and strengthen particularly as we get to the spring and the summer of next year.

我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，我們已經連續五個季度在市場上實現了入住率成長。過去五個季度，我們市場上的公寓銷售量約為 30 萬套。所以這點依然成立。因此，假設需求保持在目前的水平，我們預計這種情況會繼續好轉並增強，尤其是在明年春季和夏季。

Our next question will come from the line of Rich Hightower, Barclays.

下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的里奇·海托爾。

Covered a lot of ground, so just one for me. But I'm going to go back to the stat on, I guess, all-time low move-out for home purchases. And I think we all understand the dynamic driving that. But I guess, in your opinion, is affordability the only gating factor to that number kind of moving up back towards historical averages going forward? And it just sort of feels like there's this massive, massive pent-up demand to buy houses. And so how would that affect your business? What are your thoughts?

走了很遠的路，所以我只選了一條。但我還是要回到之前提到的統計數據，我想，房屋購買的搬遷率達到了歷史最低點。我想我們都明白這種現象背後的驅動力。但我想，在你看來，價格負擔能力是否是限制這數字回升至歷史平均的唯一因素？感覺就像是市場對購屋存在著巨大的、被壓抑的需求。那麼，這會對您的業務產生什麼影響呢？你有什麼想法？

Rich, this is Brad. I mean, I think in general, that's certainly a component but I don't think that's the only component. I think if you look at the demographics of our renters, where 80% are single. If you look at the average income for us now is approaching $100,000 given where current home prices are. Yes, I mean, there is definitely an affordability issue there. But I think just given the demographics, we're seeing certainly more single-person households being formed, which definitely, I think, leans more into the rental market than it does the for-sale market.

Rich，這位是Brad。我的意思是，總的來說，我認為這當然是一個組成部分，但我認為這不是唯一組成部分。我認為，如果你看一下我們租屋者的組成，你會發現其中 80% 是單身人士。考慮到目前的房價，我們現在的平均收入已經接近 10 萬美元了。是的，我的意思是，那裡肯定存在價格負擔能力的問題。但我認為，就人口結構而言，我們看到單身家庭的數量明顯增多，這無疑會更促使人們轉向租賃市場，而不是購買市場。

But there are demographic shifts. I think what folks are looking for, one of the #1 reasons why folks are renting is because they want a maintenance-free lifestyle, which you can't get in the single-family market but you can in the multifamily market. So I think there are other things going on that are driving some of the retention rates. We've seen that trend declining for the last 10-plus years. Certainly, it's as low as it is today partly because of the single-family affordability, but there are other trends that were in place years ago that started that trend. And I think it will continue to be in the ballpark of where it is today for the foreseeable future.

但人口結構正在改變。我認為人們想要的，也是人們選擇租房的首要原因之一，就是他們想要一種無需操心的生活方式，這在獨棟住宅市場是無法實現的，但在多戶住宅市場是可以實現的。所以我認為還有其他因素影響用戶留存率。過去十多年來，我們已經看到這種趨勢呈下降趨勢。當然，如今房價如此之低，部分原因是獨棟住宅的可負擔性，但幾年前就存在的其他一些趨勢也促成了這一趨勢。我認為在可預見的未來，它仍將維持在目前的水平附近。

Our next question will come from the line of Wes Golladay, Baird.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wes Golladay 和 Baird 家族。

I just want to see if there's any early indicators of a demand slowdown. Is your exposure in line with normal levels? And you did call out Atlanta as having high absorption. Are there any markets that are having a deceleration in absorption?

我只是想看看是否有任何需求放緩的早期跡象。你的接觸量是否在正常範圍？你確實指出亞特蘭大的吸收率很高。是否存在吸收速度放緩的市場？

Wes, this is Tim. On your first question, exposure, we're at 6.1%, which is about 30 basis points lower than it was this time last year. And as I mentioned, we're around 95.6% occupancy, which is a good 20 basis points or so higher than it was this time last year. So I think as we head into the slower leasing season, we're certainly in a good shape in terms of those metrics.

韋斯，這位是提姆。關於你的第一個問題，就是風險敞口，我們目前的敞口為 6.1%，比去年同期低了約 30 個基點。正如我之前提到的，我們的入住率約為 95.6%，比去年同期高出約 20 個基點。所以我覺得，隨著租賃淡季的到來，就這些指標而言，我們目前的情況肯定不錯。

But no, I mean, broadly there's not any markets where we're seeing a material slowdown in absorption. I mean, Q3 absorption wasn't quite as high as Q2, but Q2 is sort of a record of anything that we've ever seen but did still see market level occupancies from Q2 to Q3 moved up about 30 basis points. So outside of some of the weaker markets that are still below, even Austin still at a 91%, 92% occupancy level market-wide, we're much better than that but including the entire market.

但總的來說，我們並沒有看到任何市場出現明顯的吸收放緩。我的意思是，第三季的吸收量雖然沒有第二季那麼高，但第二季的吸收量可以說是我們見過的最高峰，不過市場整體入住率從第二季到第三季仍然上升了約 30 個基點。所以，除了部分仍低於平均的較弱市場（即使是奧斯汀，其整體市場入住率也只有 91% 或 92%）之外，我們整個市場的情況要好得多。

Huntsville is one that it's a smaller market, but it is at a record ton of supply there. That's another one that's struggled a little bit with absorption, but broadly continuing to see uptick in that absorption level and occupancy levels.

亨茨維爾雖然市場規模較小，但供應量卻創下了歷史新高。另一個在吸收方面略有困難的項目，但總體而言，其吸收水準和入住率仍在持續上升。

Our next question will come from the line of Linda Tsai, Jefferies.

下一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Linda Tsai。

On '26 earn-in being flat to slightly down. What was this like 90 days ago and from an internal reporting standpoint, how frequently do you update earning expectations? Do you always have a point in time metric available? Just wondering if this could change quickly as supply drops further in '26.

26 年收益持平或略有下降。90 天前的情況如何？從內部報告的角度來看，你們多久更新一次獲利預期？您是否始終擁有某個時間點的指標資料？我只是想知道，隨著2026年供應量進一步下降，這種情況是否會迅速改變。

I mean, we look at it typically when we look at our forecast and look at that every month and every quarter. So it certainly came down a little bit just based on our new lease growth expectations. So the way we look at earn-ins is all the leases that we expect to be in place at December 31, you just sort of assume that rent roll carried through to next year. So it's going to be dependent on where those new lease rates head. But right now, that's kind of what we're thinking is that somewhere around flat for next year.

我的意思是，我們通常會在查看預測數據時考慮它，而且每個月、每季都會查看。所以，根據我們對新租賃成長的預期，價格確實略有下降。因此，我們看待收益的方式是，所有我們預計在 12 月 31 日仍然有效的租賃合同，我們只需假設租金收入會延續到明年。所以最終結果將取決於新的租賃價格走向。但就目前而言，我們認為明年經濟情勢應該會保持穩定。

Our next question will come from the line of Alex Kim, Zelman & Associates.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Alex Kim、Zelman & Associates 團隊。

Just a quick follow-up on the retention question from Rich earlier and ask, just how do you think turnover should trend during the recovery portion of the cycle?

關於 Rich 之前提出的員工留任問題，我再補充一點：您認為在周期的恢復階段，員工流動率應該呈現怎樣的趨勢？

Yes. Right now, we don't expect material changes in turnover. I mean, it's hard to believe it gets a lot lower from here, but I don't think there's a lot of signs pointing to it getting much higher either. I mean, for all the reasons Brad talked about on single-family homes, don't expect that to move much.

是的。目前，我們預計營業額不會發生實質變化。我的意思是，很難相信它會從現在這樣低得多，但我覺得也沒有太多跡象表明它會大幅上漲。我的意思是，儘管布拉德談到了許多關於獨棟住宅的理由，但不要指望這種情況會有多大改變。

I mean, job changes, job transfers are always our #1 reason for turnover. If that starts to tick up, it's probably a sign that the economy is doing pretty well. So even though turnover could pick up a little bit in that scenario, it's probably good more broadly and we're getting better rent growth as well. But nothing we see would suggest that turnover changes a lot from where it is right now.

我的意思是，工作變動、工作動能始終是我們員工流失的首要原因。如果這個數字開始上升，那可能表示經濟狀況相當不錯。所以，即使在這種情況下週轉率可能會略有上升，但總體而言可能是件好事，而且我們也獲得了更好的租金增長。但我們目前觀察到的情況表明，營業額不會發生太大變化。

Our next question will come from the line of Ann Chan, Green Street.

下一個問題將來自格林街的安·陳女士。

Just one for me. So you noted earlier that migration and household formation trends should remain pretty stable in '26 relative to what we see in '25. So just given that and following up on a comment from a few months ago, do you still anticipate new lease rate growth possibly turning positive by next summer? Or is job growth enough of a wild card in '26 that might cause a slower pace of supply absorption that might push out the new lease recovery time line up further?

我只留一個。所以你之前提到過，與 2025 年相比，2026 年的移民和家庭組成趨勢應該會保持相當穩定。有鑑於此，並接續幾個月前的評論，您是否仍預期到明年夏天新租約成長率可能會轉正？或者，2026 年的就業成長是否是一個足夠不確定的因素，導致供應吸收速度放緩，從而進一步推遲新租賃的恢復時間線？

Well, as we said, we're not giving guidance for 2026. But I do think if the demand side remains kind of where it is right now, where we're thinking that -- we expect to see acceleration in new lease rates. I mean, it's difficult to know exactly where it's going to be several months from now. And lease is obviously the most volatile in terms of how your competitors are behaving and all that.

正如我們所說，我們不提供 2026 年的指導意見。但我認為，如果需求方面繼續保持目前的水平，也就是我們預期的水平，我們預計新租賃價格將會加速上漲。我的意思是，很難確切地知道幾個月後它會在哪裡。租賃業顯然是最容易受到競爭對手行為等因素影響的，波動性最大。

But given what we know today with the demand trends, we know what supply is doing, and we're in a great position in sort of all the other metrics, I would just leave it as we expect to see new lease rates to continue to get better on a year-over-year basis as they have this year.

但鑑於我們目前對需求趨勢的了解，我們對供應情況的了解，以及我們在其他所有指標上都處於非常有利的地位，我認為我們預計新的租賃價格將繼續像今年一樣逐年改善。

Our next question will come from the line of Omotayo Okusanya, Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題將來自德意志銀行的奧莫塔約·奧庫薩尼亞。

While your market generally tend not to be prone to any kind of rent control type provisions, just kind of curious as we're kind of going through the current election cycle if there's anything on any ballot in any of the key states that you're kind of watching that could have implications for your operating performance going forward?

雖然你們的市場通常不太容易受到任何租金管制條款的影響，但鑑於我們正處於當前的選舉週期，我很好奇，在您關注的任何關鍵州的選票上，是否有任何內容可能會對您未來的經營業績產生影響？

It's Rob. As we've talked about before and as you indicated, our markets, 90% of our NOI is in states that have a state level prohibition preventing local governments from passing rent control rules. We're not really seeing anything on rent control in any of our markets that's going on. There are a few out there in the country, but there are also a lot of pushback really saying that rent control is not really the answer to the affordability issue. And so I think we're keeping an eye on it but nothing that we're really concerned about right now.

是羅布。正如我們之前討論過的，也正如您所指出的，我們的市場，90% 的淨營業收入都來自那些州級法律禁止地方政府通過租金管制規定的州。我們目前在任何市場都沒有看到任何關於租金管制的舉措。全國確實有一些這樣的做法，但也有很多反對的聲音，他們認為租金管制並不​​是解決住房負擔能力問題的真正辦法。所以我覺得我們會密切關注此事，但目前沒有什麼真正讓我們擔心的事情。

Our final question will come from the line of JP Flangos, BNP.

最後一個問題將來自法國巴黎銀行的JP Flangos。

Just one given the time. [Technical Difficulty] has been weaker [Technical Difficulty] appeared to fall and just have lower annual income relative to the private industry as a whole. Earlier, you mentioned that the projection...

有鑑於時間因素，僅此一項。 [技術難度] 一直較弱，[技術難度] 似乎有所下降，並且相對於整個私營行業而言，其年收入較低。之前您提到過投影…

[Technical Difficulty]

【技術故障】

JP, you're breaking up bad. Maybe you can try again. We are having a hard time hearing you.

JP，你們分手分得很慘。或許你可以再試一次。我們聽不太清楚你說話。

John Flangos BNP Paribas Exane Now?

John Flangos BNP Paribas Exane 現在？

No, not getting you. Are you on -- maybe try one more time.

不，我沒明白你的意思。你在線上嗎？ ——或許可以再試一次。

Now?

現在？

Try repeating your question.

請重複你的問題。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Yes, you're kind of coming in and out.

是的，你時而進來，時而出去。

All right. Well, we'll just leave it there.

好的。好吧，我們就說到這裡吧。

We can follow up with you off-line, JP.

JP，我們可以線下聯絡你。

Operator With that, I'll return the call back to MAA for any closing comments.

接線生：好了，我會把電話轉回給MAA，請他們做最後的總結發言。

All right. We appreciate everybody joining today, and we'll see you guys all in the upcoming conference season. If you got any questions, don't hesitate to reach out. Thanks.

好的。感謝各位今天到場，我們下季再見！如有任何疑問，請隨時與我們聯繫。謝謝。

This concludes today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect now at any time.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開連線。