梅西百貨 (M) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Macy's, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

問候，歡迎來到梅西百貨公司 2022 年第四季度收益會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the call over to Pamela Quintiliano, Vice President of Investor Relations. Pamela, you may now begin.

我現在想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Pamela Quintiliano。帕梅拉，你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter 2022 results. With me on the call today are Jeff Gennette, our Chairman and CEO; and Adrian Mitchell, our CFO. Jeff and Adrian have prepared remarks that they'll share, after which we'll provide time for your questions.

謝謝你，運營商。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們討論我們 2022 年第四季度的業績。今天和我一起打電話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Jeff Gennette；和我們的首席財務官 Adrian Mitchell。 Jeff 和 Adrian 準備了他們將要分享的評論，之後我們會安排時間回答您的問題。

Along with our press release, from earlier this morning, a slide presentation has been posted on the Investors section of our website, macysinc.com. In addition to information from our prepared remarks, the presentation includes supplementary data to assist you in your analysis of Macy's. Also note that, unless otherwise noted, the comparisons that will speak to this morning will be versus 2021. Comparisons to 2019 are provided where appropriate to best benchmark our performance given impacts from the pandemic.

除了我們的新聞稿，從今天早上早些時候開始，我們網站 macysinc.com 的投資者部分還發布了幻燈片演示。除了我們準備好的評論中的信息外，該演示文稿還包括補充數據，以幫助您分析梅西百貨。另請注意，除非另有說明，否則今天上午將與 2021 年進行比較。在適當的情況下提供與 2019 年的比較，以最好地衡量我們在大流行病影響下的表現。

Keep in mind that all forward-looking statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions mentioned today. The detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

請記住，所有前瞻性陳述均受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果與預期和假設存在重大差異今天提到。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含對這些因素和不確定性的詳細討論。

In discussing the results of our operations, we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures as well as others used in our earnings release and our presentation on the Investors section of our website. Finally, as a reminder, today's call is being webcast on our website. A replay will be available approximately 2 hours after the conclusion of this call and it will be archived on our website for 1 year.

在討論我們的運營結果時，我們將提供某些非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在我們網站的投資者部分找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施以及我們的收益發布和我們的介紹中使用的其他信息的更多信息。最後，提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在我們的網站上進行網絡直播。本次電話會議結束後約 2 小時將提供重播，並將在我們的網站上存檔 1 年。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑夫。

Thanks, Pam, and good morning, and thank you for joining us today. So I'd like to start by recognizing our colleagues. In 2022, as consumer behavior rapidly changed, we adjusted our receipts and operations accordingly. At the same time, we fortified our balance sheet and continue to execute our long-term goals. In the fourth quarter, we achieved net sales of $8.3 billion. Beauty, dresses, tailored clothing, luggage and gift giving, outperformed while soft home, active and casual were challenged. We offered freshness in every category and brand, even down trending ones that are still important to customers.

謝謝，帕姆，早上好，感謝你今天加入我們。因此，我想首先表彰我們的同事。 2022 年，隨著消費者行為的迅速變化，我們相應地調整了收入和運營。與此同時，我們強化了資產負債表並繼續執行我們的長期目標。第四季度，我們實現了 83 億美元的淨銷售額。美容、連衣裙、定制服裝、箱包和禮品贈送表現出色，而家居、運動和休閒則受到挑戰。我們為每個品類和品牌提供新鮮感，甚至包括對顧客仍然很重要的流行趨勢。

Peak holiday selling periods mirrored pre-pandemic patterns, but lulls were longer and deeper. Post-holiday demand for remaining winter and early spring product was stronger than expected and markdowns were shallower than contemplated when we provided our updated guidance in early January. End-of-year inventories declined 3% to 2021 and were down 18% to 2019.

假期銷售高峰期反映了大流行前的模式，但平靜時間更長、更深。節後對剩餘冬季和早春產品的需求強於預期，降價幅度低於我們在 1 月初提供更新指導時的預期。年末庫存到 2021 年下降了 3%，到 2019 年下降了 18%。

Looking back on 2022, we began to see signs of consumer weakness and a shift in category demand late in the first quarter. We adjusted the timing, amount and composition of receipts by channel, category and brand. As macro pressures mounted and industry-wide inventory built on easing supply chain constraints, we bought closer to me, held open-to-buy reserves and bought into areas of strength. We were measured with promotions and markdowns and did not chase unprofitable sales. These actions benefited fourth quarter results. We had our ninth consecutive quarter of AUR improvement and a better-than-expected gross margin rate of 34.1%.

回顧 2022 年，我們在第一季度末開始看到消費者疲軟和品類需求轉變的跡象。我們按渠道、類別和品牌調整了收入的時間、金額和構成。隨著宏觀壓力的增加和全行業庫存建立在緩解供應鏈限制的基礎上，我們買入離我最近的股票，持有開放買入儲備並買入有實力的領域。我們以促銷和降價來衡量，並沒有追逐無利可圖的銷售。這些行動有利於第四季度的業績。我們連續第九個季度實現 AUR 改善，毛利率達到 34.1%，好於預期。

Our adjusted EBITDA margin rate was 11% and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.88, including a $0.17 discrete benefit related to the favorable resolution of a state income tax litigation. Our financial health and stability enabled us to navigate uncertainties while continuing to invest in growth drivers. At the end of the year, we had $862 million of cash, $1.2 billion less debt than 2019 and no material debt maturities until 2027.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為 11%，調整後的攤薄每股收益為 1.88 美元，其中包括與州所得稅訴訟的有利解決方案相關的 0.17 美元離散收益。我們的財務健康和穩定使我們能夠在繼續投資於增長動力的同時應對不確定性。截至年底，我們擁有 8.62 億美元的現金，比 2019 年減少 12 億美元的債務，並且在 2027 年之前沒有重大債務到期。

Turning to 2023. There is conflicting data regarding the U.S. consumer as a modern department store operating from off-price to luxury, we have a full view of income tiers, aided by our high penetration of loyalty members and robust credit card portfolio. On the surface, the consumer is in better shape than 2019. Jobs and wages are strong and savings levels are elevated relative to historic levels. But prices for services and goods are higher. Inflation has surpassed wage growth and revolving credit is rising.

轉向 2023 年。關於美國消費者作為從低價到奢侈品經營的現代百貨商店的數據相互矛盾，我們對收入層級有一個全面的了解，這得益於我們忠誠度會員的高滲透率和強大的信用卡組合。從表面上看，消費者的狀況比 2019 年要好。就業和工資強勁，儲蓄水平相對於歷史水平有所提高。但服務和商品的價格更高。通貨膨脹已經超過工資增長，循環信貸正在上升。

Adrian will provide specifics on our 2023 outlook, but we believe discretionary spend will be under pressure across income tiers and expect the allocation of disposable income to continue shifting towards services and essential goods. Even as consumers reprioritize spend, there is opportunity. With the continued expansion of a hybrid work model, there are more in-person meetings and flexibility for personal travel. We believe the desire to be with loved ones, go on vacation and attend events has not diminished and expect gift giving and occasion-based demand to continue.

Adrian 將提供我們 2023 年展望的具體細節，但我們認為可自由支配的支出將在各個收入階層承受壓力，並預計可支配收入的分配將繼續轉向服務和必需品。即使消費者重新確定支出的優先順序，也存在機會。隨著混合工作模式的不斷擴展，面對面的會議越來越多，個人旅行也更加靈活。我們相信與親人在一起、去度假和參加活動的願望並沒有減少，並且預計送禮和基於場合的需求將繼續下去。

Reflecting on the last 3 years, 2020 was a year of crisis management. 2021 was stabilization. And in 2022, we laid the foundation for a sustainable low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin and longer-term sales growth.

回顧過去三年，2020年是危機管理的一年。 2021 年是穩定的。在 2022 年，我們為可持續的低兩位數調整後 EBITDA 利潤率和長期銷售增長奠定了基礎。

So let's discuss our progress. At Macy's, we reevaluated our approach to merchandising. Since the pandemic, we have materially reduced markdown allowances and made a strong pivot to an upfront cost negotiation model, changed how we incentivize merchants. So bonuses are based on Macy's, Inc. sales versus functional responsibilities, allowing us to shift receipts and markdown dollars. Increased open-to-buy reserves, enabling us to read and react to customer signals intra-quarter and begin to work more closely with strategic brand partners to mutually grow brands in a healthier way.

因此，讓我們討論一下我們的進展。在梅西百貨，我們重新評估了我們的商品銷售方法。自大流行以來，我們大幅減少了降價補貼，並大力轉向前期成本談判模式，改變了我們激勵商家的方式。因此，獎金是基於梅西百貨公司的銷售額與職能職責之間的關係，從而使我們能夠轉移收據和降價美元。增加開放購買儲備，使我們能夠在季度內閱讀客戶信號並做出反應，並開始與戰略品牌合作夥伴更緊密地合作，以更健康的方式共同發展品牌。

Beyond merchandising in 2022, Macy's also launched Own Your Style, an omnichannel brand platform, encouraging customers to celebrate their personal style. Introduced a marketplace on macys.com, ending the year with 20 new categories and 500 new brands that our customers have been signaling demand for and introduce Toys "R" Us store within stores in every Macy's, more than doubling toy sales for the year and attracting over 0.5 million new customers.

除了 2022 年的商品銷售外，梅西百貨還推出了全渠道品牌平台 Own Your Style，鼓勵顧客展示自己的個人風格。在 macys.com 上推出了一個市場，以 20 個新類別和 500 個新品牌結束了這一年，我們的客戶一直在發出需求信號，並在每家梅西百貨商店內推出玩具“R”Us 商店，使全年玩具銷售額翻了一番以上，吸引超過 50 萬新客戶。

In 2022, we continue to embed data and analytics across the enterprise. We added and refined pricing science capabilities such as competitive pricing and enhanced channel and location level markdowns, and there is opportunity to further maximize profitability and drive even more productive sell-throughs. We also introduced Mission Every One, our social purpose platform designed to advance Macy's long-term brand relevancy for all stakeholders. We look forward to reporting on our year 1 progress in the coming weeks.

2022 年，我們將繼續在整個企業中嵌入數據和分析。我們添加並改進了定價科學功能，例如有競爭力的定價和增強的渠道和位置級別的降價，並且有機會進一步最大化盈利能力並推動更有效的銷售。我們還推出了 Mission Every One，這是我們的社會目標平台，旨在提升梅西百貨與所有利益相關者的長期品牌相關性。我們期待在未來幾週內報告第一年的進展情況。

And we invested in our #1 resource, our colleagues. We completed a $15 per hour minimum wage increase nationwide and introduced our Guild Education partnership with approximately 3,000 colleagues taking advantage of free education benefits. These actions helped reduce overall turnover by roughly 3% since 2019, excluding reductions in force and seasonal employees.

我們投資於我們的第一資源，我們的同事。我們在全國范圍內完成了每小時 15 美元的最低工資增長，並與大約 3,000 名享受免費教育福利的同事建立了公會教育合作夥伴關係。自 2019 年以來，這些行動幫助將整體營業額減少了約 3%，其中不包括裁員和季節性員工。

We have entered 2023 in a position of financial and operational strength with a proven track record of executing our strategic priorities even in periods of uncertainty. This year, we will be testing, investing and scaling for sales and margin expansion. In addition to our existing initiatives, including pricing science and data and analytics, we will focus on our 5 primary growth vectors. Number one, Macy's private brand Reimagination; two, Market by Macy's and Bloomie's off-mall stores; three, marketplace; four, Luxury; and five, personalized offers and communication, which we have broadly described as personalization in the past.

進入 2023 年，我們在財務和運營實力方面處於領先地位，即使在不確定時期也能執行我們的戰略重點。今年，我們將測試、投資和擴大銷售和利潤率。除了我們現有的計劃，包括定價科學、數據和分析，我們將專注於我們的 5 個主要增長向量。第一名，梅西百貨自有品牌Reimagination；二，梅西百貨和 Bloomie 的場外商店；三、市場；四、奢華；第五，個性化的報價和溝通，我們過去將其廣泛描述為個性化。

These vectors were contemplated when we introduced our long-term low single-digit annual growth sales CAGR goal in the fourth quarter of 2021. Since then, we have steadily invested even as macro pressures have intensified. We are currently targeting low single-digit annual net sales and comparable owned plus license sales growth beginning in 2024, off an assumption for a low single-digit decline in both metrics this year. Our target is based on the timing and anticipated impact of several rollouts and does not assume a dramatic improvement in consumer health. We are making strategic investments to fuel future profitable growth, and these investments are reflected in our 2023 SG&A and CapEx assumptions, which Adrian will discuss shortly.

我們在 2021 年第四季度推出長期低個位數年復合增長率目標時就考慮了這些向量。從那時起，即使宏觀壓力加劇，我們也穩步投資。我們目前的目標是從 2024 年開始實現低個位數的年度淨銷售額和可比自有加許可銷售額增長，這與今年這兩個指標均出現低個位數下降的假設相悖。我們的目標是基於幾次推出的時間和預期影響，並且不假設消費者健康狀況會顯著改善。我們正在進行戰略投資以推動未來的盈利增長，這些投資反映在我們的 2023 年 SG&A 和資本支出假設中，Adrian 稍後將對此進行討論。

This morning, we will provide an overview of the 5 vectors, including proof points that give us confidence in their viability.

今天上午，我們將概述這 5 個向量，包括讓我們對其可行性充滿信心的證據點。

So let's start with Macy's Private Brands. When our Chief Merchandising Officer, was promoted to her role roughly 2 years ago, private brands became one of her top priorities. Since then, we have built the capabilities and infrastructure to reimagine, strengthen and grow the portfolio. We've created a dedicated private brand team with new design, sourcing and merchandising roles and broad cross-functional support. The team is now executing our vision for a differentiated, defendable and durable portfolio.

那麼讓我們從梅西百貨的自有品牌開始。大約 2 年前，當我們的首席營銷官被提升為她的角色時，自有品牌成為她的首要任務之一。從那時起，我們就建立了重新構想、加強和發展產品組合的能力和基礎設施。我們已經創建了一個專門的自有品牌團隊，具有新的設計、採購和營銷角色以及廣泛的跨職能支持。該團隊現在正在執行我們對差異化、可防禦和持久投資組合的願景。

Our approach is rooted in consumer insights. Our team has conducted over 80,000 online surveys, 35 days of digital community engagement and hundreds of hours of in-store fit research and shop-alongs. This data has informed our go-forward strategy, which is focused on 5 key pillars: brand identity, original design, strategic sourcing, relevant size and fit and compelling value. The role of private brands is to drive customer loyalty, be a differentiator for our business, complement our matrix of national brands and benefit our gross margin.

我們的方法植根於消費者洞察力。我們的團隊進行了超過 80,000 次在線調查、35 天的數字社區參與以及數百小時的店內合身性研究和購物。這些數據為我們的前進戰略提供了信息，該戰略側重於 5 個關鍵支柱：品牌標識、原創設計、戰略採購、相關尺寸和合身性以及引人注目的價值。自有品牌的作用是提高客戶忠誠度，成為我們業務的差異化因素，補充我們的民族品牌矩陣並有利於我們的毛利率。

We currently have 24 private label brands in the Macy's portfolio, which combined represented roughly 16% of Macy's 2022 sales. Over the next 3 years, we will rigorously evaluate all of them and will refresh, reimagine and replace brands. As part of our commitment to inclusivity, our new portfolio will reflect customers across every life stage, style preference and price point. We started with an initial update of INC in mid-2022. Early results have been favorable with fourth quarter sales up 28% to last year.

我們目前在梅西百貨的投資組合中擁有 24 個自有品牌，這些品牌加起來約佔梅西百貨 2022 年銷售額的 16%。在接下來的 3 年裡，我們將對所有這些進行嚴格評估，並將更新、重新構想和更換品牌。作為我們對包容性承諾的一部分，我們的新產品組合將反映各個人生階段、風格偏好和價格點的客戶。我們從 2022 年年中的 INC 初始更新開始。早期業績良好，第四季度銷售額比去年同期增長 28%。

So turning to our second growth vector, our off-mall smaller format stores. These stores play an integral role in supporting our omnichannel ecosystem. We currently have 8 market by Macy's and 2 Bloomie's. These average about 30,000 to 40,000 square feet or roughly 1/5 the size of our on-mall locations.

因此，轉向我們的第二個增長載體，我們的場外小型商店。這些商店在支持我們的全渠道生態系統方面發揮著不可或缺的作用。我們目前有 8 個 Macy's 市場和 2 個 Bloomie's。這些平均面積約為 30,000 至 40,000 平方英尺，大約是我們購物中心門店面積的 1/5。

Looking at the 5 Market by Macy's and the 1 Bloomie's that have been open for over a year, fourth quarter comparable owned plus licensed sales increased by 8% and 12%, respectively. Of-mall conversion is significantly above mall locations and customer experience scores on layout and neatness of the store, ease of the checkout process and availability of colleagues are 25 to 30 points higher.

看看已經開業一年多的 5 Market by Macy's 和 1 Bloomie's，第四季度可比自有銷售額和特許銷售額分別增長了 8% 和 12%。商場外轉化率明顯高於商場位置，顧客在商店佈局和整潔度、結賬過程的便利性和同事的可用性方面的得分高出 25 到 30 分。

According to Placer.AI data, off-mall centers have 2.5x more visits than on-mall. Thus far, we are most successful in centers that include high-traffic concepts like off-price or grocery, where our unique products and brands provide a differentiated option. When opening in existing markets, cannibalization is lower than anticipated and new customer acquisition rates are higher than on-mall. In 2023, we plan on opening 4 market by Macy's and 1 Bloomie's and if new locations continue to outperform, we will look to incrementally accelerate off-mall openings beginning in 2024. With our strong liquidity position, we are prepared to take advantage of opportunities as they present themselves.

根據 Placer.AI 的數據，商場外中心的訪問量是商場內的 2.5 倍。迄今為止，我們在包含低價或雜貨等高流量概念的中心最為成功，我們獨特的產品和品牌在這些中心提供了差異化的選擇。在現有市場開店時，蠶食率低於預期，新客戶獲取率高於商場。 2023 年，我們計劃在 Macy's 和 1 Bloomie's 開設 4 個市場，如果新門店繼續表現出色，我們將尋求從 2024 年開始逐步加快場外開業。憑藉我們強大的流動性狀況，我們準備好利用機遇當他們展示自己時。

We are currently evaluating the right number and mix of on- and off-mall locations, our ecosystem and customer are dramatically different today than when we announced our 125 Macy's store closure plan in February of 2020. Since then, we have closed approximately 80 Macy's locations and plan to close another 5 this fiscal year. We have shuttered our most significant underperformers, exited dine centers and improved the existing store experience, while delaying closures of others that are cash flow positive. Today, roughly 99% of our mall base is profitable on a 4-wall basis.

我們目前正在評估商場內外位置的正確數量和組合，我們今天的生態系統和客戶與我們在 2020 年 2 月宣布關閉 125 家梅西百貨商店計劃時截然不同。從那時起，我們已經關閉了大約 80 家梅西百貨地點併計劃在本財政年度關閉另外 5 個。我們關閉了表現最差的門店，退出了餐飲中心並改善了現有的門店體驗，同時推遲關閉其他現金流為正的門店。今天，我們大約 99% 的購物中心都以 4 層牆為基礎盈利。

Our third growth vector is our online marketplace. Over the last year, we have built a team focused on identifying, recruiting, onboarding and supporting sellers. Since its launch last September, we had found that over 90% of our total marketplace customer base are Macy's Cross shoppers. Additionally, Marketplace number one, captures incremental sales opportunity in categories and brands where we have historically limited offers such as video games and electronics. Two, drives a larger average order value and higher units per order. Three, allows us to quickly move into new and adjacent categories without inventory risk. Four, gives our customers more choice at scale. Five, enables us to ship channels for certain customer wanted brands that do not have a high velocity of sell-throughs; and six, attracts a new younger customer.

我們的第三個增長載體是我們的在線市場。在過去的一年裡，我們建立了一個專注於識別、招聘、入職和支持賣家的團隊。自去年 9 月推出以來，我們發現 Macy's Cross 購物者占我們整個市場客戶群的 90% 以上。此外，Marketplace 排名第一，抓住了類別和品牌的增量銷售機會，在這些類別和品牌中，我們歷來提供的產品有限，例如視頻遊戲和電子產品。第二，推動更大的平均訂單價值和每個訂單的更高單位。第三，使我們能夠在沒有庫存風險的情況下快速進入新的和相鄰的類別。第四，給我們的客戶更多的規模選擇。五，使我們能夠為某些客戶想要的銷售速度不高的品牌提供渠道；第六，吸引新的年輕客戶。

We have plans to add 2,000 brands on Macy's marketplace this year and to launch on Bloomingdale's marketplace in the back half. Luxury is our fourth growth vector. In 2022, both Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury achieved their highest annual sales volume in history. Congratulations to the teams. At Bloomingdale's, which just celebrated its 150th anniversary, loyalist members accounted for over 70% of owned plus licensed comparable sales and spent 7% more year-over-year. Our top of the list loyalty customer defined as loyalists who spend at least $5,000 annually spent 9% more year-over-year.

我們計劃今年在 Macy's 市場上增加 2,000 個品牌，並在下半年在 Bloomingdale's 市場上推出。奢侈品是我們的第四個增長載體。 2022 年，Bloomingdale's 和 Bluemercury 均創下歷史最高年銷售額。祝賀團隊。在剛剛慶祝其成立 150 週年的 Bloomingdale's，忠實會員佔自有和許可可比銷售額的 70% 以上，支出同比增長 7%。我們的頂級忠誠客戶定義為每年花費至少 5,000 美元的忠誠者，其花費同比增長 9%。

Over the past several years, we have used data and analytics to allocate assortments on a store level, including an elevated mix of brands and categories at our top locations. And across our base, we have been refreshing and remodeling our center core areas. Response from customers and partners has been positive, and we plan on accelerating this program in 2023. Bluemercury has been under new leadership since mid-2021. Over the past year, our active customer base grew by 12%, and our loyalty customer, which represents over 80% of sales spent roughly twice as much as normal. Outstanding service, exclusive events and cutting-edge national and proprietary brands continue to be top priorities.

在過去的幾年裡，我們使用數據和分析來在商店級別分配分類，包括在我們的頂級地點增加品牌和類別的組合。在我們的基地，我們一直在更新和改造我們的中心核心區域。客戶和合作夥伴的反應是積極的，我們計劃在 2023 年加速該計劃。Bluemercury 自 2021 年年中以來一直處於新的領導之下。在過去的一年裡，我們的活躍客戶群增長了 12%，而我們的忠誠客戶（佔銷售額的 80% 以上）的支出大約是平時的兩倍。出色的服務、獨家活動以及尖端的國家和專有品牌仍然是重中之重。

At Macy's, our focus on luxury beauty continues to strengthen our presence with great brands. Over the past 5 years, we have been actively updating our beauty departments and plan to renovate roughly 8 to 10 per year over the next several years. These are full beauty floor remodels where we will add new brands, rightsize some existing brands and focus on adjacencies and services. A key piece has been upgrading our luxury omnichannel beauty experience with brands like Armani, Chanel, Creed, Dior, Jo Malone, La Mer, Tom Ford and Wiesel Beauty. We are also working with our luxury brand partners to create memorable events such as our Dior made with love experience at this year's upcoming Flower Show.

在梅西百貨，我們專注於奢侈美容，繼續加強我們在大品牌中的影響力。在過去的 5 年裡，我們一直在積極更新我們的美容部門，併計劃在未來幾年內每年翻新大約 8 到 10 家。這些是全面的美容地板改造，我們將在其中添加新品牌，調整一些現有品牌並專注於鄰接和服務。一個關鍵部分是通過 Armani、Chanel、Creed、Dior、Jo Malone、La Mer、Tom Ford 和 Wiesel Beauty 等品牌升級我們的奢華全渠道美容體驗。我們還與我們的奢侈品牌合作夥伴合作，打造令人難忘的活動，例如今年即將舉行的花展上我們的 Dior made with love experience。

The fifth growth vector is personalized offers and communication. By targeting at the customer level, we can build loyalty, grow customer lifetime value and further protect margins. This year, we have run tests with tens of millions of Macy's customers, including our Star Rewards members who represent roughly 70% of our Macy's owned plus licensed comparable sales. The test to focus on individualized promotions and consistent cross-channel experiences. We're pleased with early learnings, and we will continue to refine offers and communication to make the experience more tailored and intimate.

第五個增長向量是個性化服務和交流。通過瞄準客戶層面，我們可以建立忠誠度、增加客戶生命週期價值並進一步保護利潤。今年，我們對梅西百貨的數千萬客戶進行了測試，其中包括我們的 Star Rewards 會員，他們約佔梅西百貨自有銷售額和許可可比銷售額的 70%。該測試側重於個性化促銷和一致的跨渠道體驗。我們對早期的學習感到滿意，我們將繼續改進報價和溝通，使體驗更加量身定制和親密。

It's an exciting time to be here at Macy's. We have exited 2022 more relevant, flexible and disciplined with a firm understanding of what it means to be a successful modern department store. We are committed to freshness across categories. Our model allows us to pivot product, promotions and messaging. We will buy conservatively, preserve liquidity and open to buy and not chase unprofitable sales. we are confident in the amount, composition and mix of inventories, and we will continue to evaluate macro indicators and customer data to respond to signals positioning us to compete and win regardless of the environment.

來到梅西百貨是一個激動人心的時刻。憑藉對成為一家成功的現代百貨商店意味著什麼的堅定理解，我們已經以更相關、更靈活和更有紀律的方式度過了 2022 年。我們致力於跨類別的新鮮度。我們的模型允許我們以產品、促銷和消息傳遞為中心。我們將謹慎購買，保持流動性並開放購買，而不是追逐無利可圖的銷售。我們對庫存的數量、構成和組合充滿信心，我們將繼續評估宏觀指標和客戶數據，以響應使我們能夠在任何環境下競爭並取勝的信號。

So with that, I'm going to turn it over to Adrian for more detail on our fourth quarter and forward outlook.

因此，我將把它交給阿德里安，了解我們第四季度和前瞻性展望的更多細節。

Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. 2022 was a year of volatility and uncertainty and provided further proof that the disciplines we have built into our business are driving us forward and strengthening our modern department store positioning. Our diversified model allows us to respond to shifting demands of our customers across categories, brands and the value spectrum.

謝謝，傑夫，大家早上好。 2022 年是動盪和不確定的一年，進一步證明我們在業務中建立的紀律正在推動我們前進並加強我們現代百貨商店的定位。我們的多元化模式使我們能夠響應客戶在不同品類、品牌和價值範圍內不斷變化的需求。

As we look ahead, we are confident that the investments we are making today in our 5 vectors will drive long-term profitable growth. We will balance testing and iterating to ensure that we scale these critical initiatives with an educated perspective on their ability to contribute a high return to our business. Now I'll take a few moments to walk through the fourth quarter results of our 5 value creation levers before providing additional details on our expectations for 2023 and beyond.

展望未來，我們相信我們今天在 5 個方向上所做的投資將推動長期盈利增長。我們將平衡測試和迭代，以確保我們以受過教育的觀點擴展這些關鍵計劃，了解它們為我們的業務帶來高回報的能力。現在，在提供有關我們對 2023 年及以後的預期的更多詳細信息之前，我將花一些時間來了解我們 5 個價值創造槓桿的第四季度結果。

First, omnichannel sales. We generated net sales of $8.3 billion for the fourth quarter, a decline of 4.6% versus the prior year and down 0.9% to 2019. Comparable sales on an owned plus licensed basis decreased 2.7%.

第一，全渠道銷售。我們第四季度的淨銷售額為 83 億美元，比上年下降 4.6%，比 2019 年下降 0.9%。自有加許可的可比銷售額下降 2.7%。

Moving to the second value creation lever, gross margin. Our gross margin rate was 34.1%, down 240 basis points from the prior year and down 270 basis points versus 2019. Of the year-over-year decline, 300 basis points was due to lower merchandise margin, primarily driven by higher markdowns and promotions relative to last year when inventory constraints in the industry led to low promotions and robust full price sell-throughs. This year's higher level of markdowns and promotions reflected our commitment to N22 at the right level and composition of inventory and our response to the competitive retail environment, both of which were contemplated when we provided our fourth quarter outlook.

轉到第二個價值創造槓桿，毛利率。我們的毛利率為 34.1%，比上年下降 240 個基點，比 2019 年下降 270 個基點。同比下降 300 個基點是由於商品利潤率下降，這主要是由於降價和促銷活動增多與去年相比，去年該行業的庫存限制導致低促銷和強勁的全價銷售。今年更高水平的降價和促銷活動反映了我們對 N22 在適當水平和庫存構成的承諾以及我們對競爭激烈的零售環境的反應，這兩者在我們提供第四季度展望時都已考慮到。

While markdowns and promotions were elevated versus last year, they were better than our expectations. However, inventory shortage was above plan and prior year due to increased step consistent with trends seen throughout retail. Despite merchandise margin degradation, Macy's, Inc. owned AUR rose 2% in the fourth quarter, driven by ticket increases and category mix. For the year, owned AUR increased over 4%. Delivery expense was 60 basis points below last year on a 2-point decline in digital penetration and lower peak delivery surcharges. Compared to 2019, gross margin degradation was primarily due to a 7-point increase in digital penetration.

雖然與去年相比降價和促銷有所增加，但它們好於我們的預期。然而，由於與整個零售業趨勢一致的增長步伐，庫存短缺高於計劃和上一年。儘管商品利潤率下降，梅西百貨公司擁有的 AUR 在第四季度上漲了 2%，這主要是由於門票價格上漲和品類組合的推動。今年，擁有的 AUR 增長超過 4%。由於數字滲透率下降 2 個百分點和較低的高峰交付附加費，交付費用比去年低 60 個基點。與 2019 年相比，毛利率下降主要是由於數字滲透率增加了 7 個百分點。

The third value creation lever is inventory productivity. Inventory declined 3% year-over-year and 18% compared to 2019. Inventory turnover was down 4% for last year and improved 15% to 2019. We made significant progress in leveraging data and analytics to better forecast sales demand, receipt timing and flow across the supply chain. In 2023, we will focus on more advanced inventory productivity initiatives, including improved automation and more flexible inventory allocation to drive higher sell-throughs and ultimately, more sales.

第三個價值創造槓桿是庫存生產率。庫存同比下降 3%，與 2019 年相比下降 18%。庫存周轉率去年下降 4%，到 2019 年提高 15%。我們在利用數據和分析更好地預測銷售需求、收貨時間和流經供應鏈。 2023 年，我們將專注於更先進的庫存生產率計劃，包括改進自動化和更靈活的庫存分配，以推動更高的銷售率並最終增加銷售額。

Expense discipline is the fourth value creation lever. SG&A decreased $30 million or 1.2% to $2.4 billion. SG&A as a percent of net sales was 29%, 100 basis points higher than last year. Compared to 2019, SG&A improved by 110 basis points. The year-over-year rate increase was primarily driven by continued investments in colleagues across competitive pay, incentives and benefits. Retaining and hiring the best talent is imperative to operate at a caliber needed to deliver our low single-digit sales CAGR target and a sustainable low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin. We remain focused on increasing our productivity and managing controllable costs to align with our expense disciplines.

費用紀律是第四個價值創造槓桿。 SG&A 減少 3000 萬美元或 1.2% 至 24 億美元。 SG&A 占淨銷售額的百分比為 29%，比去年高出 100 個基點。與 2019 年相比，SG&A 提高了 110 個基點。同比增長主要是由於在具有競爭力的薪酬、激勵和福利方面對同事的持續投資。留住和僱用最優秀的人才對於以實現我們低個位數的銷售複合年增長率目標和可持續的低兩位數調整後 EBITDA 利潤率所需的能力運營至關重要。我們仍然專注於提高生產力和管理可控成本，以符合我們的費用紀律。

However, as a result of the investments we have made and will continue to make in our people, we expect our 2023 SG&A rate to delever. I will discuss this further in a few minutes. Within SG&A, Macy's Media Network had net revenue of $57 million in the quarter and $144 million for the year, up 34% to 2021.

然而，由於我們已經並將繼續對我們的員工進行投資，我們預計 2023 年的 SG&A 率將下降。我將在幾分鐘後進一步討論這個問題。在 SG&A 中，梅西百貨媒體網絡本季度淨收入為 5700 萬美元，全年淨收入為 1.44 億美元，比 2021 年增長 34%。

Credit card revenues were $262 million, down $2 million from last year, but above our expectations. As a percent of net sales, credit card revenues were 3.2% or 20 basis points higher than the prior year, primarily benefiting from higher balances in the portfolio and better-than-expected bad debt levels. As Jeff mentioned, we expect the consumer to continue to be under pressure in 2023. Within our portfolio, we see higher credit usage trends, slower repayment rates and increasing bad debt levels. While not at 2019 levels, we are watching these metrics closely to get perspective on the consumer and the potential impact on credit card revenues, particularly profit share, which is the largest component of the credit revenue stream.

信用卡收入為 2.62 億美元，比去年下降 200 萬美元，但高於我們的預期。信用卡收入占淨銷售額的百分比比上年增長 3.2% 或 20 個基點，這主要得益於投資組合餘額增加和壞賬水平好於預期。正如 Jeff 提到的，我們預計消費者在 2023 年將繼續承受壓力。在我們的投資組合中，我們看到更高的信貸使用趨勢、更慢的還款率和更高的壞賬水平。雖然不是 2019 年的水平，但我們正在密切關注這些指標，以了解消費者及其對信用卡收入的潛在影響，尤其是利潤份額，這是信貸收入流的最大組成部分。

In addition, we are reviewing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's proposed rule relating to late fees and are evaluating the implications that the proposed changes may have on the credit card program. Due to the uncertainty around the proposed rule, our outlook for 2023 does not reflect any estimate for potential impact.

此外，我們正在審查消費者金融保護局關於滯納金的擬議規則，並正在評估擬議變更可能對信用卡計劃產生的影響。由於擬議規則的不確定性，我們對 2023 年的展望並未反映對潛在影響的任何估計。

Fourth quarter diluted EPS was $1.88 versus $2.45 in 2021 and $2.12 in 2019. Adjusted EPS exceeded our expectations, even excluding benefits from the better-than-expected interest income due to higher interest rates and a lower effective tax rate, largely due to a favorable state income tax settlement. Lastly, the fifth value creation lever is capital allocation. We continue to take a balanced approach to capital allocation with an ongoing focus on maintaining a healthy balance sheet, investing in our business and returning capital to shareholders.

第四季度攤薄每股收益為 1.88 美元，而 2021 年和 2019 年分別為 2.45 美元和 2.12 美元。調整後的每股收益超出了我們的預期，甚至不包括由於利率上升和有效稅率降低而帶來的好於預期的利息收入，這主要是由於有利的州所得稅結算。最後，第五個價值創造槓桿是資本配置。我們繼續採取平衡的資本配置方法，持續關注維持健康的資產負債表、投資於我們的業務以及向股東返還資本。

In 2022, we generated $1.6 billion of operating cash flow compared to $2.7 billion last year. The year-over-year decline was primarily due to lower earnings and last year's receipt of the $582 million CARES Act refund in the fourth quarter. During the year, we invested $1.3 billion in capital expenditures, upwards roughly 2/3 related to enhanced omnichannel capabilities, digital and technology, data and analytics and supply chain modernization.

2022 年，我們產生了 16 億美元的運營現金流，而去年為 27 億美元。同比下降主要是由於收入下降以及去年第四季度收到了 5.82 億美元的 CARES 法案退款。在這一年中，我們投資了 13 億美元的資本支出，其中大約 2/3 與增強的全渠道能力、數字和技術、數據和分析以及供應鏈現代化有關。

Free cash flow inclusive of proceeds from real estate was an inflow of $457 million in 2022. Our focus and discipline around balance sheet health has contributed to strong leverage with an adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio of 2.0x, in line with our target. We have paid down over $1.8 billion of long-term debt since August 2021, inclusive of the $1.3 billion secured note we issued during COVID in June 2020, and have no material debt maturities until 2027.

2022 年，包括房地產收益在內的自由現金流流入 4.57 億美元。我們對資產負債表健康的關注和紀律有助於實現強大的槓桿率，調整後的債務與調整後的 EBITDA 槓桿率為 2.0 倍，符合我們的目標。自 2021 年 8 月以來，我們已經償還了超過 18 億美元的長期債務，包括我們在 2020 年 6 月 COVID 期間發行的 13 億美元有擔保票據，並且在 2027 年之前沒有實質性債務到期。

Additionally, we benefit from having fixed rate debt in a rising interest rate environment. Our balance sheet gives us the capacity to invest in initiatives that drive long-term profitable growth. We expect approximately $1 billion of capital spend in 2023. Over the next 3 years through 2025, we expect to spend up to $3 billion in total capital expenditures focused on digital and technology investments, data and analytics, supply chain modernization and omnichannel capabilities, including our growth vectors.

此外，我們受益於在利率上升的環境中擁有固定利率債務。我們的資產負債表使我們有能力投資於推動長期盈利增長的計劃。我們預計 2023 年的資本支出約為 10 億美元。在未來 3 年到 2025 年，我們預計總資本支出將高達 30 億美元，重點放在數字和技術投資、數據和分析、供應鏈現代化和全渠道能力上，包括我們的增長載體。

We expect to continue returning excess cash to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases and are pleased to have recently announced a 5% increase in our annual dividend, resulting in a quarterly dividend of $0.165 per share. We will continue to apply a thoughtful approach to excess cash with our remaining $1.4 billion share repurchase authorization.

我們希望繼續通過股息和股票回購向股東返還多餘的現金，並且很高興最近宣布我們的年度股息增加 5%，從而使季度股息為每股 0.165 美元。我們將繼續對剩餘的 14 億美元股票回購授權採取深思熟慮的方式處理多餘現金。

Next, I'll spend some time discussing 2023 guidance and expectations. Our 2023 outlook reflects heightened uncertainty surrounding both the consumer and the macro environment. We believe allocation of spend between goods and services and essentials and nonessentials will continue to shift away from discretionary categories. The low and high end of our guidance reflects various scenarios regarding the severity and duration of headwinds, offset by how we can and will respond. To pause on that, we believe our tools and processes give us the ability to navigate dynamic environments. We have the flexibility to respond to changing demand and the freshness customers are looking for. This is supported by financial and operational health.

接下來，我將花一些時間討論 2023 年的指導和期望。我們的 2023 年展望反映出圍繞消費者和宏觀環境的不確定性加劇。我們認為，商品和服務以及必需品和非必需品之間的支出分配將繼續從可自由支配的類別轉移。我們指導的低端和高端反映了有關逆風的嚴重性和持續時間的各種情景，被我們能夠和將如何應對所抵消。暫停一下，我們相信我們的工具和流程使我們能夠駕馭動態環境。我們可以靈活地應對不斷變化的需求和客戶正在尋找的新鮮度。這得到了財務和運營健康的支持。

Before discussing our outlook, I have 2 housekeeping items. First, fiscal 2023 is a 53-week year. This is reflected in our guidance unless otherwise noted. Second, beginning in the first quarter of 2023, we are planning to combine credit card revenues net and Macy's Media Networks net monetization revenue as part of our other revenue line item in our income statement to provide increased transparency. Historically, monetization revenue has been reported as an offset within SG&A, while credit card revenue has been reported as its own net revenue line item.

在討論我們的前景之前，我有 2 個內務事項。首先，2023 財年是 53 週的一年。除非另有說明，否則這將反映在我們的指南中。其次，從 2023 年第一季度開始，我們計劃將信用卡淨收入和梅西百貨媒體網絡的淨貨幣化收入合併為損益表中其他收入項目的一部分，以提高透明度。從歷史上看，貨幣化收入被報告為 SG&A 中的抵消項，而信用卡收入被報告為其自身的淨收入項目。

In conjunction with this change, we will begin presenting SG&A and adjusted EBITDA as a percent of total revenues rather than net sales. Total revenues will include net sales and other revenue. Additional information on this presentation change, a reconciliation to prior years and full details of our 2023 guidance are available at the back of our earnings presentation on our website.

結合這一變化，我們將開始將 SG&A 和調整後的 EBITDA 作為總收入的百分比而不是淨銷售額來呈現。總收入將包括淨銷售額和其他收入。有關此演示文稿更改的更多信息、與前幾年的對賬以及我們 2023 年指南的全部詳細信息，請參閱我們網站上收益演示文稿的背面。

For the full year, our expectations for Macy's, Inc. are as follows: Net sales of $23.7 billion to $24.2 billion, representing a low single-digit year-over-year decline, reflecting our view that the consumer will be more challenged in 2023 relative to 2022. Comparable sales on a 52-week owned plus licensed basis to be down approximately 2% to 4% year-over-year; digital as a percent of net sales to be roughly 32% to 34%; other revenue to be about 3.7% of net sales with credit card revenues accounting for approximately 84% of that. Our credit card revenue outlook assumes increased bad debt compared to 2022, reflecting recent credit card portfolio trends, a gross margin rate of 38.7% to 39.2%.

對於全年，我們對梅西百貨的預期如下： 淨銷售額為 237 億美元至 242 億美元，同比降幅較低，反映出我們認為消費者在 2023 年將面臨更大挑戰相對於 2022 年。基於 52 周自有加許可的可比銷售額同比下降約 2% 至 4%；數字占淨銷售額的百分比約為 32% 至 34%；其他收入約占淨銷售額的 3.7%，信用卡收入約佔其中的 84%。我們的信用卡收入前景假設與 2022 年相比壞賬增加，反映了近期的信用卡組合趨勢，毛利率為 38.7% 至 39.2%。

Our disciplined approach to inventory management and pricing signs should result in lower markdowns and promotions year-over-year. We will continue to refine location-level pricing and expand machine learning pricing capabilities to automate strategic promotions from vendor direct inventory to owned inventory. Partially offsetting these benefits is the lapping of ticket increases in 2022 that we do not anticipate repeating.

我們對庫存管理和定價標誌採取嚴格的方法，應該會導致降價和促銷活動同比減少。我們將繼續完善位置級定價並擴展機器學習定價功能，以自動執行從供應商直接庫存到自有庫存的戰略促銷。部分抵消了這些好處的是 2022 年機票價格的上漲，我們預計不會重複。

SG&A as a percent of total revenue is expected to be about 35%, reflecting ongoing investments in our colleagues and infrastructure consistent with our focus on long-term profitable growth. On payroll, we see these investments in 3 ways: first, customer experience. Store productivity has increased over 20% since 2019. Our innovative selling model has improved productivity while providing a convenience and experiential in-store shopping journey. Second, we must pay competitively to recruit and retain the best talent. The strength of our colleagues is on full display with recent performance, where we achieved a 10.8% annual adjusted EBITDA margin rate despite a volatile macro environment.

SG&A 佔總收入的百分比預計約為 35%，反映出對我們同事和基礎設施的持續投資與我們對長期盈利增長的關注相一致。在工資單上，我們從 3 個方面來看待這些投資：第一，客戶體驗。自 2019 年以來，商店生產力提高了 20% 以上。我們創新的銷售模式提高了生產力，同時提供了便利和體驗式的店內購物之旅。其次，我們必須以有競爭力的薪酬來招聘和留住最優秀的人才。我們同事的實力在最近的業績中得到了充分展示，儘管宏觀環境動盪，但我們實現了 10.8% 的年度調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。

And third, the new capabilities we have and are continuing to build require different skill sets than we have historically needed. We have thoughtfully added dedicated teams to support growth, resulting in over 100 new colleagues. The capabilities we've added have helped support our operational strength and control and are critical to the success of our growth initiatives.

第三，我們擁有並正在繼續建設的新能力需要與以往不同的技能組合。我們深思熟慮地增加了專門的團隊來支持增長，從而增加了 100 多名新同事。我們添加的功能有助於支持我們的運營實力和控制，對我們的增長計劃的成功至關重要。

For non-payroll expenses, which account for approximately 55% of our SG&A, we managed well against inflation in 2022, achieving low single-digit growth despite roughly 6% increase in the consumer price index. We will continue to be disciplined with our expense management in 2023 and beyond. We expect asset sale gains of $60 million to $75 million, reflecting anticipated headwinds from rising interest rates. Adjusted EBITDA as a percent of total revenue of roughly 10% to 10.4% or 10.3% to 10.8% as a percent of net sales and interest expense of $165 million. After interest and taxes, we are estimating annual adjusted earnings per share of $3.67 to $4.11. Our adjusted EPS guidance does not assume any impact for potential share repurchases.

對於占我們 SG&A 約 55% 的非工資支出，我們在 2022 年很好地應對了通貨膨脹，儘管消費者價格指數上漲了約 6%，但仍實現了較低的個位數增長。我們將在 2023 年及以後繼續遵守我們的費用管理紀律。我們預計資產出售收益為 6,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元，反映了預期的利率上升阻力。調整後的 EBITDA 佔總收入的百分比約為 10% 至 10.4%，或占淨銷售額和利息支出 1.65 億美元的百分比約為 10.3% 至 10.8%。扣除利息和稅項後，我們估計年度調整後每股收益為 3.67 美元至 4.11 美元。我們調整後的每股收益指引不會對潛在的股票回購產生任何影響。

As we think about the first half versus second half of 2023, we expect year-over-year sales performance to be softer in the first half. As a reminder, in the first half of 2022, the consumer was still benefiting from stimulus as well as they return to travel, occasions and events. This was particularly evident in the first quarter of 2022 when we posted a 13.6% year-over-year net sales increase, making it our strongest sales growth quarter of the year.

當我們考慮 2023 年上半年與下半年的對比時，我們預計上半年的同比銷售業績將更加疲軟。提醒一下，在 2022 年上半年，消費者仍在從刺激計劃中受益，並且他們重返旅行、場合和活動。這在 2022 年第一季度尤為明顯，當時我們公佈了 13.6% 的淨銷售額同比增長，成為我們今年最強勁的銷售增長季度。

In the second quarter, starting around Father's Day, we began to see a slowdown in pandemic-related categories, increasing inflationary pressures and savings rate declines, which impacted sales and gross margin. These pressures built through the year. In the second half, we are anniversarying an accelerated weakening of the consumer a shift in spend to services and essential goods and excess industry-wide inventories and composition misalignments, which subsequently led to heightened markdowns and promotions beginning in fall of 2022.

在第二季度，從父親節前後開始，我們開始看到與大流行相關的類別放緩、通脹壓力增加和儲蓄率下降，這影響了銷售額和毛利率。這些壓力是通過一年積累起來的。下半年，我們正在慶祝消費者加速疲軟，支出轉向服務和必需品，以及全行業庫存過剩和構成失調，隨後導致從 2022 年秋季開始的降價和促銷活動加劇。

For the first quarter of 2023, we expect net sales of $5 billion to $5.1 billion. Adjusted EPS is expected to be $0.42 to $0.48. In addition to the quarterly sales comparison I just discussed, our net sales outlook assumes that the stronger sales we experienced in the peak holiday season and into January do not continue as the consumer further depletes their savings and becomes even more selective in their spend across goods and services.

對於 2023 年第一季度，我們預計淨銷售額為 50 億至 51 億美元。調整後的每股收益預計為 0.42 美元至 0.48 美元。除了我剛剛討論的季度銷售比較之外，我們的淨銷售前景假設我們在假期旺季和 1 月份經歷的強勁銷售不會持續，因為消費者會進一步耗盡他們的儲蓄，並且在購買商品時變得更加挑剔和服務。

Gross margin rate is expected to be down no more than 20 basis points for the first quarter of 2022, and our outlook also includes a $7 million asset sale gain we expect to recognize. End of quarter inventories are expected to be down mid-single digits to last year on a percentage basis. We have made great progress transforming our business. We have achieved financial and operational stability while navigating the past 3 years of global uncertainty. Now more than ever, we believe we are poised for long-term profitable growth, leading to additional shareholder value creation.

預計 2022 年第一季度毛利率下降不超過 20 個基點，我們的展望還包括我們預計將確認的 700 萬美元資產出售收益。按百分比計算，季末庫存預計將比去年同期下降中個位數。我們在業務轉型方面取得了巨大進展。在過去 3 年的全球不確定性中，我們實現了財務和運營穩定。現在，我們比以往任何時候都更相信我們已準備好實現長期盈利增長，從而創造額外的股東價值。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jeff.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給傑夫。

Thanks, Adrian. So as we look to 2023 and beyond, we have the capabilities, infrastructure and discipline in place, supported by a highly engaged team that is incentivized to win. We are taking a prudent approach to our capital allocation to protect our financial health, which provides us with significant flexibility to respond to changing trends while also prioritizing our 5 growth vectors. This provides the fuel to achieve sales growth beginning in 2024. We look forward to sharing more on our progress in the coming quarters.

謝謝，阿德里安。因此，當我們展望 2023 年及以後時，我們擁有到位的能力、基礎設施和紀律，並得到一支高度敬業的團隊的支持，他們被激勵去贏得勝利。我們對資本配置採取審慎的方法來保護我們的財務健康，這為我們提供了極大的靈活性來應對不斷變化的趨勢，同時也優先考慮我們的 5 個增長方向。這為從 2024 年開始實現銷售增長提供了動力。我們期待在未來幾個季度分享更多進展。

And operator, we are now ready for questions.

接線員，我們現在準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) The first question is coming from Brooke Roach of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自高盛的布魯克羅奇。

Jeff, can you elaborate a bit more on the inflection to positive sales and comp growth that you're expecting beginning in 2024. What gives you the confidence in that inflection against a choppy macro? And what are the key drivers there? And then perhaps for Adrian, can you also provide some additional context on how you're approaching sales guidance for 2023 and in particular, 1Q? Have you seen a deceleration in the consumer recently that's driving that conservatism?

傑夫，你能詳細說明一下你預計從 2024 年開始的銷售和收入正增長的轉折點嗎？是什麼讓你有信心在動蕩的宏觀經濟中出現這種轉折點？那裡的關鍵驅動因素是什麼？然後也許對於阿德里安，你能否提供一些額外的背景信息，說明你如何接近 2023 年，特別是第一季度的銷售指導？您是否看到最近推動保守主義的消費者減速？

So Brooke, and I'll take the first part to your question about -- so our growth outlook is really supported by the 5 growth vectors that we spoke to on the call. We're not ready to size each growth vector individually, but -- will definitely give everybody an update on that in the future. We're in the early innings of these growth vectors, but we've been building them for a couple of years, and we have a lot of confidence in them. So let me just kind of check through them.

所以布魯克，我將回答你的問題的第一部分 - 所以我們的增長前景確實得到了我們在電話會議上談到的 5 個增長向量的支持。我們還沒有準備好單獨調整每個增長向量的大小，但是 - 將來肯定會給每個人更新。我們正處於這些增長載體的早期階段，但我們已經構建它們幾年了，我們對它們充滿信心。因此，讓我檢查一下它們。

I think the first one is the private brands reimagination. So this is -- when you think about we are -- we started touching the private brands about 2 years ago with new talent that we brought in. We looked at existing brands that we wanted to reburnish, INC is a good example of that. And you saw in the fourth quarter, INC is our biggest and most powerful Macy brand, picked up 28% in the fourth quarter.

我認為第一個是自有品牌的重新構想。所以這就是 - 當你想到我們時 - 我們大約在 2 年前開始接觸自有品牌，我們引進了新人才。我們研究了我們想要重振的現有品牌，INC 就是一個很好的例子。你在第四季度看到，INC 是我們最大、最強大的梅西品牌，第四季度增長了 28%。

The new brands start to launch in the back half of '23, and we have a very aggressive schedule going through all -- through 2025. Right now, private brands is about 16% of our business and we know that can grow. But it's lots of refreshed content replacement of existing brands and adding new brands.

新品牌在 23 年下半年開始推出，我們有一個非常積極的時間表，一直到 2025 年。目前，自有品牌約占我們業務的 16%，我們知道它可以增長。但它是對現有品牌的大量更新內容替換和添加新品牌。

The second one is really off-price or off-mall expansion. And we're just really focused on unlocking the full potential of our off-mall fleet, knowing that what a storage base does to our overall omnichannel business. So I think the headline here is that the ones that we've opened, we have 8 on the Macy's side, 2 on the Bloomingdale side, when you look at those that have been opened more than a year and you look at the fourth quarter business, on the Macy's side, it picked up 8% in the fourth quarter, and the Bloomingdale side had picked up 12%. It's attracting a new raft of customers. It's helping the digital business in those ZIP codes. We are looking for -- we're going to be launching new ones in '23. And by the end of the year, we are hoping for a scalable model.

第二個是真正的折扣或商場外擴張。我們只是真正專注於釋放我們的商場外車隊的全部潛力，知道存儲基地對我們整體全渠道業務的作用。所以我認為這裡的標題是我們已經開業的那些，我們在梅西百貨方面有 8 個，在布魯明戴爾方面有 2 個，當你看看已經開業超過一年的那些，你看看第四季度業務方面，梅西百貨在第四季度增長了 8%，布魯明戴爾方面增長了 12%。它吸引了一批新的顧客。它正在幫助那些郵政編碼中的數字業務。我們正在尋找 - 我們將在 23 年推出新產品。到今年年底，我們希望有一個可擴展的模型。

If we look at the digital marketplace, so this is one that we launched in September of 2022. We ended the year with 500 brands and also 20 new categories. So aggressive schedule there. We're looking to add 2,000 more brands in '23 and importantly, we're launching the Bloomingdale's marketplace in the back half of this year. We talked about luxury brands. And so as we mentioned, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury as well as Macy's Beauty, where we have a lot of luxury offerings. But the Bloomingdale and Bluemercury had a record year in 2022. And Macy's Beauty with great strength in fragrance and skincare and color, we've added a number of brands with a lot more coming.

如果我們看一下數字市場，那麼這是我們在 2022 年 9 月推出的市場。我們在這一年結束時擁有 500 個品牌和 20 個新類別。那裡的日程安排如此激進。我們希望在 23 年增加 2,000 個品牌，重要的是，我們將在今年下半年推出 Bloomingdale's 市場。我們談到了奢侈品牌。正如我們提到的，Bloomingdale's 和 Bluemercury 以及 Macy's Beauty，我們有很多奢侈品。但是 Bloomingdale 和 Bluemercury 在 2022 年創下了歷史新高。而梅西百貨在香水、護膚品和色彩方面的實力很強，我們已經添加了很多品牌，而且還會有更多品牌。

So we're investing in both the online and the in-store remodels and experiences to really bolster that. I mean the last is really personalized offers and communications, which has so many benefits when you talk about relevancy of communication that goes to customers reducing -- giving value -- very specific targeted value to certain customers. And so we are running lots of tests. We're reaching tens of millions of customers. We've been -- we've always got something going on each week and we are very encouraged by the early results, but we're not expecting on this particular one to see meaningful benefit until the end of 2024.

因此，我們正在投資於在線和店內改造和體驗，以真正加強這一點。我的意思是最後一個是真正個性化的報價和溝通，當你談論與客戶減少——賦予價值——非常具體的目標價值的客戶溝通的相關性時，它有很多好處。因此，我們正在進行大量測試。我們正在接觸數千萬客戶。我們一直——我們每週都會有一些事情發生，我們對早期的結果感到非常鼓舞，但我們預計在 2024 年底之前不會在這個特定的結果上看到有意義的好處。

So all these initiatives are really intended to drive long-term profitable sales growth, which we're targeting to achieve in 2024 and beyond. So I'll -- we'll give you more updates as we get into all of our earnings calls, but I'll turn it over to Adrian for the second part of your question.

因此，所有這些舉措實際上都是為了推動長期的盈利銷售增長，我們的目標是在 2024 年及以後實現這一目標。所以我會 - 我們會在我們進入所有收益電話時為您提供更多更新，但我會把它交給阿德里安來回答你問題的第二部分。

The first thing I would say is that we do enter 2023 in a position of strength. When you think about our disciplined inventories down 3% to last year, down 18% to 2019, our data-driven decisions, our financial and operational health, which from an execution standpoint, has been on display in 2022, we really step into 2023 with confidence. But we also recognize that the consumer remains under heightened pressure. So as we think about the sales guide path for 2023, let me just kind of walk through kind of how we thought about it, which will provide a bit more context on the improved trajectory that we see for 2023.

我要說的第一件事是，我們確實進入了 2023 年。當你想到我們的紀律庫存比去年下降 3%，到 2019 年下降 18%，我們的數據驅動決策，我們的財務和運營健康，從執行的角度來看，已經在 2022 年展示，我們真正步入 2023 年有信心。但我們也認識到，消費者仍然承受著更大的壓力。因此，當我們考慮 2023 年的銷售指南路徑時，讓我稍微介紹一下我們的想法，這將為我們看到的 2023 年改進軌跡提供更多背景信息。

So in the first quarter, if you reflect on 2022, the first quarter was our strongest quarterly year-over-year compare. We're up 13.6% last year in the first quarter. And this was a point in time when we were effectively -- government stimulus was still out there. There was a clear resurgence in terms of return to work, occasion, travel, and there was inventory constraints that we're really beginning to loosen but still a little bit tight at that point in time.

所以在第一季度，如果你回顧 2022 年，第一季度是我們最強勁的季度同比比較。去年第一季度我們增長了 13.6%。這是我們有效的時間點——政府刺激措施仍然存在。在重返工作、場合、旅行方面明顯復甦，我們確實開始放鬆庫存限制，但在那個時間點仍然有點緊張。

As we got into the second quarter, the consumer was still relatively healthy, and inflationary pressures began to intensify as consumers begin to reallocate from goods to services. So we saw that pivot begin to kind of pick up and as the supply chains loosened and inventory really flowed into the retail context, the promotional landscape began to intensify.

進入第二季度，消費者仍然相對健康，隨著消費者開始從商品轉向服務，通脹壓力開始加劇。因此，我們看到這種支點開始有所回升，隨著供應鏈的放鬆和庫存真正流入零售環境，促銷環境開始加強。

Now as we think about the third and fourth quarters, the macro pressures, the excess inventory surpluses, the continued inflation really created a lot of challenges that you're very aware of as we think about the third and fourth quarters. So as we think about the compare to last year, you have an intensifying period over the course of last year. And what we're saying is that we expect to have more of a recovery as we think about our trajectory from the first quarter to the second quarter as well as targeting sales growth in 2024.

現在，當我們考慮第三和第四季度時，宏觀壓力、過度庫存過剩、持續的通貨膨脹確實帶來了很多挑戰，當我們考慮第三和第四季度時，您會非常清楚這些挑戰。因此，當我們考慮與去年的比較時，你在去年的過程中有一個強化期。我們要說的是，考慮到我們從第一季度到第二季度的軌跡以及 2024 年的銷售增長目標，我們預計會有更多的複蘇。

And we assume that this growth that we expect in 2024 will remain in a situation where the consumer remains under pressure. But given the growth vectors that we've discussed, we have confidence that we can achieve that growth by 2024 from an annual basis. So that gives you a little bit of a sense of the composition.

我們假設，我們預計 2024 年的這種增長將保持在消費者仍然承受壓力的情況下。但考慮到我們已經討論過的增長向量，我們有信心到 2024 年能夠實現年增長。這樣您就可以對構圖有所了解。

Now as we think about the fourth quarter, the only thing I would add is we learned a lot about gifting in 2022. That was a real strength for us and we're excited about what we're actually positioning ourselves to do in the fourth quarter of 2023. So that certainly gives us confidence in addition to the 53rd week, which we'll benefit from in the fourth quarter.

現在，當我們考慮第四季度時，我唯一要補充的是，我們在 2022 年學到了很多關於禮物的知識。這對我們來說是一種真正的力量，我們對我們在第四季度的實際定位感到興奮2023 年的季度。因此，除了第 53 週之外，這肯定給了我們信心，我們將在第四季度從中受益。

The next question is coming from Oliver Chen of TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Oliver Chen。

You gave a lot of helpful comments on a cautious consumer. What's in your control as you think about the product assortment and the switch of the consumer demand? And as we model forward, what are you embedding for traffic? Do you expect traffic to continue to be fairly volatile. And lastly, the younger customer, as you intersect the brand renovation and private brands, what's top of mind for captivating and getting the younger customer into the store.

你對一個謹慎的消費者給出了很多有用的評論。當您考慮產品分類和消費者需求的轉變時，您能控制什麼？當我們向前建模時，您要為流量嵌入什麼？您預計流量會繼續相當不穩定嗎？最後，年輕的顧客，當你將品牌翻新和自有品牌相交時，吸引年輕顧客並讓他們進入商店的首要考慮因素是什麼。

So let's talk about it. When you think about Oliver and your 3 questions on product assortment, we see similar trends to what we're seeing right now. So you basically have occasion-based categories that are still strong. And so when you look at what's going on in dress up, when you look at luggage categories like that, those will continue. We do have those models, the pace to start to abate as you get into the back half of the year, but still strong.

那麼讓我們來談談吧。當你想到 Oliver 和你關於產品分類的 3 個問題時，我們看到了與我們現在看到的類似的趨勢。所以你基本上有基於場合的類別仍然很強大。因此，當您查看裝扮方面的情況時，當您查看類似的行李箱類別時，這些將會繼續。我們確實有這些模型，隨著你進入今年下半年，步伐開始放緩，但仍然強勁。

When you look at the businesses right now that have been quite challenged for us, the pandemic categories, we do actually expect them to start to pick up as we get into the back half. I think the big thing when you look at our disciplines and what we've done with inventory control is that we're ready to be able to pivot where the customer goes on this. We're watching this very carefully, we look at our trend curves, we look at what's going on in Bloomingdale's, which is, in many cases, early warning for us about things that are really doing well or will do well and those that are starting to taper off.

當你看看現在對我們來說已經相當挑戰的業務時，大流行類別，我們實際上希望它們在我們進入後半段時開始回升。我認為，當您查看我們的紀律以及我們在庫存控制方面所做的工作時，最重要的是我們已經準備好能夠在客戶進行此操作的地方進行調整。我們正在非常仔細地觀察這件事，我們觀察我們的趨勢曲線，我們觀察 Bloomingdale's 正在發生的事情，在許多情況下，這是對我們真正做得好的或將做得好的事情以及那些正在做的事情的早期警告開始逐漸變細。

The liquidity that we built into our open to buy is really gives us the flexibility what we call dry powder to be able to respond to where the customer is going. So we have done that well. We controlled our inventories, and we are very disciplined about how we're allocating receipts.

我們在開放購買中建立的流動性確實為我們提供了我們稱之為乾粉的靈活性，以便能夠響應客戶的去向。所以我們做得很好。我們控制了我們的存貨，我們對如何分配收據非常有紀律。

With respect to traffic, traffic has been relatively good. We expect that to continue. The consumer is still healthy. And we're looking at conversions across both online and in-store to ensure that we are maximizing all that traffic that we're getting. But the consumer is under pressure. And so -- and we expect what we saw, particularly with self-purchase that we quoted in the beginning of January, but that's going to continue all the way through 2023. So our guidance anticipates that.

在交通方面，交通一直比較好。我們希望這種情況繼續下去。消費者仍然健康。我們正在研究在線和店內的轉化率，以確保我們正在最大化我們獲得的所有流量。但消費者面臨壓力。因此 - 我們期待我們看到的情況，特別是我們在 1 月初引用的自購，但這將一直持續到 2023 年。因此我們的指導預計會出現這種情況。

And then to your question about the younger customer, clearly, there are categories right now that we're winning very much with the younger customer. We expect those to continue, where we have market share strength there. And then there's categories when we look at apparel. So the comment about private brand reimagination is really going to respond to all the life stages, which includes kind of the Gen Z and the alpha customer. And so looking forward to sharing those opportunities in the future as well as this younger customer and how we can take care of them with other offerings, particularly marketplace.

然後關於你關於年輕客戶的問題，很明顯，現在我們在年輕客戶中贏得了很多類別。我們預計這些將繼續下去，因為我們在那裡擁有市場份額。當我們看服裝時，還有類別。所以關於自有品牌重新構想的評論真的會回應所有生命階段，其中包括 Z 世代和阿爾法客戶。因此，期待在未來與這個年輕的客戶分享這些機會，以及我們如何通過其他產品（尤其是市場）來照顧他們。

So that is very much in our mind when you look at the new categories that we're adding, the new brands that we're adding and look at this younger consumer and the opportunity to address them that way. And what we're seeing for marketplace is categories that are doing well, we have the opportunity to bring them into our own format in the future. We're evaluating that right now based on early learnings we're getting from successes on marketplace. So the younger consumer is clearly in our sights.

因此，當您查看我們正在添加的新類別，我們正在添加的新品牌並查看這個年輕的消費者以及以這種方式解決他們的機會時，我們非常清楚這一點。我們在市場上看到的是表現良好的類別，我們有機會在未來將它們納入我們自己的格式。我們現在正在根據我們從市場上的成功中獲得的早期經驗對其進行評估。因此，年輕的消費者顯然在我們的視野中。

The next question is coming from Chuck Grom of Gordon Haskett.

下一個問題來自 Gordon Haskett 的 Chuck Grom。

Great execution, guys. Curious what you're seeing on spend across some of your different income cohorts, the low end and at the high end. And then, Adrian, I think the real surprise here this morning is a gross margin guide, which obviously demonstrates a lot of confidence. So just wondering if you can dive into that, particularly things that you can control in terms of pricing on a localization level and other factors that give you that confidence that you can hit 38.7% to 39.2% in this year?

偉大的執行力，伙計們。想知道您在一些不同收入群體（低端和高端）的支出上看到了什麼。然後，阿德里安，我認為今天早上真正令人驚訝的是毛利率指南，這顯然表明了很大的信心。所以只是想知道你是否可以深入研究這一點，特別是在本地化定價方面你可以控制的事情以及其他讓你有信心今年可以達到 38.7% 到 39.2% 的因素？

Chuck, it's Jeff. So I'll start with your question about income tiers, and then I'll throw it to Adrian to talk about gross margins. So what I'd say is that all income tiers are going to be pressured in '23. As we've seen since the second quarter, we've actually seen very similar trends across income tiers of Macy's. So really, for the last 2 quarters. I guess the good news on this is that we have a broad range of categories and price points that we get a lean into, the inventory discipline, the open to buy. I think the big thing to remember is what we did in really the beginning of 2020 when we went to kind of an upfront net cost model with most of our suppliers and massively reduced the reliance on markdown allowances.

查克，是傑夫。所以我將從你關於收入等級的問題開始，然後我會把它扔給阿德里安來談談毛利率。所以我要說的是，所有收入階層都將在 23 年受到壓力。正如我們自第二季度以來所看到的那樣，我們實際上已經看到梅西百貨各個收入層級的趨勢非常相似。所以真的，在過去的兩個季度裡。我想這方面的好消息是我們有廣泛的類別和價格點，我們可以精益，庫存紀律，購買開放。我認為最重要的是要記住我們在 2020 年初所做的事情，當時我們與大多數供應商建立了一種前期淨成本模型，並大大減少了對降價補貼的依賴。

The other thing that we did at the same time was that we based our incentives for our merchants on the enterprise sales versus their functional sales. That really made receipt and markdowns to be an enterprise opportunity. And it gave us then the opportunity particularly what you're going to see in '23 to layer in these open-to-buy reserves on top of a more conservative view and a more cautious view of where the consumer is going. So that is -- we've been able to respond to that.

我們同時做的另一件事是，我們將對商家的激勵基於企業銷售與其功能銷售的對比。這確實使收據和降價成為企業機會。它給了我們機會，特別是你將在 23 年看到的，在更保守的觀點和對消費者走向的更謹慎的觀點之上，將這些開放購買儲備分層。那就是——我們已經能夠對此做出回應。

I think when you look at it from off-price to luxury, when you look at our nameplates and our brands, what we're seeing is that the consumer is pressured. I would like to comment about luxury. So luxury just continues to have strength. When you look at the loyalist program at Bloomingdale's, that spend was up 7% in the fourth quarter. And the top of the list, which is the top of that, which is a big chunk of the overall business and very profitable business, that was up 9%.

我認為，當你從低價到奢侈品來看，當你看我們的銘牌和品牌時，我們看到的是消費者承受著壓力。我想評論一下奢侈品。所以奢侈品只是繼續有實力。當您查看 Bloomingdale's 的忠誠計劃時，第四季度的支出增長了 7%。而榜首，也就是其中的首位，佔整體業務的很大一部分，而且是非常有利可圖的業務，增長了 9%。

So we expect -- when you think about share of wallet, we have opportunity to capture more and particularly that top of the list in that luxury consumer. They're really spending where they're scarcity and where they're specialness. So while we're doing at Bluemercury, what we're doing at Bloomingdale's and what we're doing in the beauty area of Macy's, is really helping our customers see us as a place where they can buy these categories because they're so discerning in their purchases. So where we see (inaudible) Macy's strengths, we've got a model that is ready to respond to all income types.

所以我們期望——當你考慮錢包份額時，我們有機會獲得更多，尤其是奢侈品消費者中的頂級產品。他們真的在稀缺和特殊的地方消費。因此，當我們在 Bluemercury 所做的事情時，我們在 Bloomingdale's 所做的事情以及我們在 Macy's 美容區所做的事情，真正幫助我們的客戶將我們視為他們可以購買這些類別的地方，因為他們是如此在他們的購買中挑剔。因此，在我們看到（聽不清）梅西百貨的優勢之處，我們有一個模型可以應對所有收入類型。

Chuck, so as it relates to our gross margin outlook for 2023, I think one of the things that's been very consistent that you've heard from us is our commitment to margin expansion as well as our commitment to inventory productivity. And so overall, as you look at 2023, we're looking to have lower markdowns, more effective promotions to offset partially by lower ticket price increases. But let me just kind of give you a little bit of a complexion of the 3 things that we're focused on.

查克，關於我們 2023 年的毛利率展望，我認為您從我們這裡聽到的非常一致的一件事是我們對利潤率擴張的承諾以及我們對庫存生產率的承諾。因此，總體而言，當您展望 2023 年時，我們希望降價幅度更低、促銷活動更有效，以部分抵消較低的票價上漲。但是，讓我稍微介紹一下我們關注的三件事。

The first is healthy inventories. So when you think about inventory being down 3% to 2021, which 2021 was a year of inventory scarcity, our inventory composition as well as our levels are actually quite healthy. So the strength of freshness and to be able to sell through the items that we put in front of the customer, that's something that we're pretty excited about and we have the flexibility in our open to buy reserve to respond to sales demand signals to be able to get and maintain the right composition throughout the season.

首先是健康的庫存。因此，當您考慮到 2021 年庫存下降 3% 時，即 2021 年是庫存短缺的一年，我們的庫存構成和水平實際上非常健康。因此，新鮮度的強度以及能夠通過我們擺在客戶面前的商品進行銷售，這是我們非常興奮的事情，我們可以靈活地開放購買儲備以響應銷售需求信號能夠在整個賽季中獲得併保持正確的構圖。

The second thing is really more focused on compelling promotional events and reducing our broad-based promotions while levering up our personalized offers and communications so that we can have more regular priced sell-throughs. We've already tested with millions of customers, our personalized offered communications thus far this year. We're pleased with the results that we're seeing. And in combination with that, we're really committed to not chasing unprofitable sales. That served us well in the fourth quarter, and that will also continue to be a principle as we get into the new year.

第二件事實際上更側重於引人注目的促銷活動並減少我們廣泛的促銷活動，同時利用我們的個性化優惠和溝通，以便我們可以有更多的正常價格銷售。今年到目前為止，我們已經對數百萬客戶進行了個性化提供的通信測試。我們對所看到的結果感到滿意。結合這一點，我們真正致力於不追逐無利可圖的銷售。這在第四季度對我們很有幫助，而且在我們進入新的一年時，這也將繼續成為一個原則。

The third is really the mix of categories. We've been very disciplined operationally in terms of how we think about the pivot of the customer and where he or she is spending. And so we're going to continue to do that. But we feel that freshness, fashion and newness is going to allow us to have more full price sell-through, which is going to be able to help our gross margin. So when you think about opportunities like dresses, and men's tailored that's not offered at scale and value retailers. We're just very well positioned for that kind of mix around the full price sell-through to really enhance our gross margin throughout the year.

第三是真正的類別混合。在我們如何看待客戶的支點以及他或她在哪裡消費方面，我們在運營方面一直非常有紀律。因此，我們將繼續這樣做。但我們認為，新鮮、時尚和新奇會讓我們有更多的全價銷售，這將有助於提高我們的毛利率。因此，當您考慮諸如連衣裙和男裝等商機時，這些商機無法在規模和價值零售商處提供。我們非常適合圍繞全價銷售的這種組合，以真正提高我們全年的毛利率。

So those are the things that we're excited about. We're continuing to look at things like freight and raw material costs and opportunities there. We feel good about the progress that we've made there. But fundamentally, we've just been very disciplined on all the levers around gross margin and already have the momentum and traction to bring that into 2023.

所以這些就是我們感到興奮的事情。我們將繼續關注運費和原材料成本以及那裡的機會。我們對我們在那裡取得的進展感到滿意。但從根本上說，我們在毛利率的所有槓桿上都非常自律，並且已經有動力和動力將其帶入 2023 年。

The next question is coming from Matthew Boss of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matthew Boss。

So maybe 2-part question. Jeff, when you think beyond this year about the sustainable topline model moving forward, where do you see white space market share opportunity? And do you see expansion opportunity given the lateral store closures that appear to be picking back up? And then Adrian, is it high 30s for gross margin in terms of the profile multiyear? And can you leverage the expense base at low single digit -- at low single-digit sales growth.

所以也許是兩部分的問題。傑夫，當您考慮今年以後的可持續頂線模型向前發展時，您在哪裡看到空白市場份額機會？鑑於橫向商店關閉似乎正在回升，您是否看到擴張機會？然後阿德里安，就多年的概況而言，毛利率是否高達 30 多歲？你能以低個位數的低個位數——以低個位數的銷售增長——來利用費用基礎嗎？

Matt, so I think the white space question is related to how many categories or customers signaling interest in Macy's. I think we're learning a lot from marketplace. And categories that when you think about video games, you think about electronics that were the most popular categories on marketplace during the fourth quarter. We're learning a lot about some of the apparel businesses and categories that we have added or brands that we have added. So there is big opportunity with that.

馬特，所以我認為空白問題與有多少類別或客戶表示對梅西百貨感興趣有關。我認為我們從市場中學到了很多東西。當你想到視頻遊戲時，你會想到第四季度市場上最受歡迎的電子產品類別。我們正在學習很多關於我們添加的一些服裝業務和類別或我們添加的品牌的信息。所以這有很大的機會。

When you look at some of our lease opportunities and what we've been able to do, Pandora is a great example of that, that has immediately energized our entire jewelry floor at big productivity level increases from what we had previously. We're going to be expanding that. So we're looking at all of the categories where we are -- we play in and what's our opportunity to narrow our assortment on the most important things and expand in areas that are not. We're looking at it by customer type. So to Oliver's earlier question about when you look at Gen Z and alpha, what are those categories that they want to traffic in. And what's the best way for us to bring that to market. From an owned model, it may not be profitably -- we may not get the ROI on that, but on marketplace, it makes a great deal of sense.

當您查看我們的一些租賃機會以及我們能夠做的事情時，Pandora 就是一個很好的例子，它立即為我們整個珠寶車間注入了活力，使我們的生產力水平比以前大幅提高。我們將擴大它。因此，我們正在研究我們所處的所有類別——我們參與其中，以及我們有什麼機會縮小我們在最重要事物上的分類範圍，並在不重要的領域進行擴展。我們正在按客戶類型查看。因此，對於 Oliver 之前的問題，當您查看 Z 世代和 alpha 時，他們想要交易的類別是什麼。我們將其推向市場的最佳方式是什麼。從一個擁有的模型來看，它可能不會盈利——我們可能無法獲得投資回報率，但在市場上，它很有意義。

So expect us to look at the full portfolio. We have a big tent, we do when you think about opening price, if you think about our off-price business is going out below $20, you look at Macy's going out in the $40 range across the same categories and Bloomingdale's is more than double that. So depending on where those income tiers are and where those customers are, we're looking at our full arsenal between VDF, hybrid marketplace and owned to be able to respond to that. And we now have the tools to be able to do that.

所以期待我們看看完整的投資組合。我們有一個大帳篷，當您考慮開盤價時我們會這樣做，如果您認為我們的折扣業務價格低於 20 美元，您會看到梅西百貨在相同類別中的價格在 40 美元範圍內，而 Bloomingdale's 則超過一倍那。因此，根據這些收入層級和客戶所在的位置，我們正在研究 VDF、混合市場和擁有的全部武器庫，以便能夠對此做出回應。我們現在擁有能夠做到這一點的工具。

When we look at it in the context of market share gains and new customers, we're really looking at, and white space for us would also be customers that would consider our brands, but don't go to data on them because they don't find or brick-and-mortar, particularly convenient. So there may be places -- even though we're in 49 of the top 50 markets, there's many ZIP codes where we don't penetrate because customers are going to off-mall and that's how they're satisfying their needs. That's why we're so excited about what we're looking at in terms of Market by Macy's and Bloomie's. So expect us to continue to fortify that. When we do that, the digital flywheel and the omnichannel business, starts humming. So that's how we're looking at where we're going to go with white space and new customer opportunities.

當我們在市場份額增長和新客戶的背景下看待它時，我們真的在看，對我們來說，空白空間也將是會考慮我們品牌的客戶，但不要去看他們的數據，因為他們不找還是實體店，特別方便。所以可能有一些地方——儘管我們在前 50 大市場中有 49 個，但有許多我們沒有滲透的郵政編碼，因為客戶會去購物中心，這就是他們滿足他們需求的方式。這就是為什麼我們對 Macy's 和 Bloomie's 的 Market 所看到的東西感到如此興奮。所以期待我們繼續加強這一點。當我們這樣做時，數字飛輪和全渠道業務開始嗡嗡作響。這就是我們如何看待空白和新客戶機會的去向。

Matt, so to answer your question very simply on gross margin, we remain very focused on high 30s in terms of our gross margin rate. The thing to keep in mind is as we continue to scale Macy's media network, continue to scale marketplace, those are additional profit pools that will certainly strengthen our margin profile. But you also raised an important question about SG&A. So let me spend a little bit of time on that because I think it's important to mention for us to understand.

馬特，所以為了簡單地回答你關於毛利率的問題，我們仍然非常關注毛利率的 30 多歲。要記住的是，隨著我們繼續擴大梅西百貨的媒體網絡，繼續擴大市場規模，這些額外的利潤池肯定會加強我們的利潤率。但你也提出了一個關於 SG&A 的重要問題。因此，讓我花一點時間討論這個問題，因為我認為提及這一點很重要，以便我們理解。

The first thing is, in 2020, we were very committed through Polaris to reset our cost base, and we actually did that. So if you look at 2019 versus today, we have about 30,000 colleagues less in the workforce, that's about 27% less colleagues on sales in 2022 that's relatively comparable to 2019 levels.

首先，在 2020 年，我們非常致力於通過 Polaris 重置我們的成本基礎，而我們確實做到了。因此，如果你看看 2019 年與今天相比，我們的員工人數減少了約 30,000 人，即 2022 年從事銷售工作的同事減少了約 27%，這與 2019 年的水平相當。

But the important thing we have to keep in mind is that we cannot fuel growth without investing in our talent. And this was on display in 2022 when you think about the quality of execution and the success that we've had with the priorities that we've committed to over the course of the last couple of years. So that really was on display last year.

但我們必須牢記的重要一點是，如果不投資於我們的人才，我們就無法推動增長。當您考慮執行質量以及我們在過去幾年中致力於實現的優先事項方面取得的成功時，這在 2022 年得到了體現。所以這真的是去年展出的。

But let me just dimensionalize our payroll investments and speak to our successes on the non-payroll side. On the payroll side, as we make investments in talent, the first and foremost thing is around the customer experience. And what we've done in terms of in-store and supply chain is as of May, we've actually have nationwide $15 minimum pay, but the important thing is that we're continuing to see productivity, for example, in our stores, above 20% relative to 2019.

但是，讓我來詳細說明我們的薪資投資，並談談我們在非薪資方面的成功。在薪資方面，當我們對人才進行投資時，首要的是圍繞客戶體驗。我們在店內和供應鏈方面所做的是截至 5 月，我們實際上在全國范圍內有 15 美元的最低工資，但重要的是我們繼續看到生產力，例如，在我們的商店，相對於 2019 年增長 20% 以上。

The second piece is really around competitive pay. We have to retain and attract the top talent to execute at the level that we need to, to really think about growth in 2024 and beyond. And so you are very familiar with our growth vectors, but it's about having the right team to deliver the kind of execution that we need to really win.

第二部分實際上是圍繞有競爭力的薪酬。我們必須留住並吸引頂尖人才以我們需要的水平執行，真正考慮 2024 年及以後的增長。所以你非常熟悉我們的增長向量，但這是關於擁有合適的團隊來提供我們真正需要的執行力來贏得勝利。

The last piece is really around the capabilities, and we've talked about this quite a bit over the years and really excited about the traction that we've been getting. You're seeing data and analytics as a new capability, not a capability we had several years ago, and our pricing science has really served us well. Marketplace is now officially launched that didn't exist 6 months ago. Private brands, we've made investments, and as we've talked about, we see growth opportunity there. Personalization is another dimension, Macy's media network. So building new capabilities requires talented individuals from the industry and we've been able to attract and retain those individuals.

最後一部分實際上是關於功能的，多年來我們已經討論了很多次，並且對我們所獲得的牽引力感到非常興奮。您將數據和分析視為一種新功能，而不是我們幾年前的功能，我們的定價科學確實為我們提供了很好的服務。 6 個月前還不存在的 Marketplace 現已正式推出。自有品牌，我們已經進行了投資，正如我們所說，我們在那裡看到了增長機會。個性化是梅西百貨媒體網絡的另一個維度。因此，建立新的能力需要來自行業的人才，而我們已經能夠吸引和留住這些人才。

We do consider the way that we've managed non-payroll expense is a win for us. When we look at the data, the consumer price index is in the range of about 6%, some indices seem to be a little bit higher, but we were low single digits during that period. So we've been very disciplined on that side. That being said, we remain committed to a double-digit -- low double-digit EBITDA profile on net sales and total revenue, and that's about discipline as we move forward.

我們確實認為我們管理非工資支出的方式對我們來說是一種勝利。我們看數據的時候，消費物價指數在6%左右，有些指數好像高了點，但是那段時間我們是低個位數。所以我們在這方面非常有紀律。話雖這麼說，我們仍然致力於實現兩位數 - 淨銷售額和總收入的低兩位數 EBITDA 概況，這與我們前進的紀律有關。

The next question is coming from Alex Straton of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Alex Straton。

Really 2 pieces. First is that you're already hitting this low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margin target. And I think that was your kind of longer-term, so a nice outcome there. So maybe is that still the right long-term target? Or what are some puts and takes there?

真的2塊。首先是您已經達到了這個低兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率目標。我認為這是你的長期目標，所以那裡的結果很好。那麼也許這仍然是正確的長期目標？或者那裡有什麼看跌期權？

And then secondly, just following up on the luxury piece and the questions earlier. I just wanted to zoom out, it sounds like you're incrementally positive on Bloomie's and Bluemercury as a part of the bigger luxury strategy. And I know some of the competitors in this space are struggling. So maybe you could help us understand how that opportunity has changed in the market broadly compared to, say, pre-COVID? Or if you're thinking about it any differently than you did then?

其次，只是跟進奢侈品和之前的問題。我只是想縮小範圍，聽起來你對 Bloomie's 和 Bluemercury 越來越樂觀，這是更大的奢侈品戰略的一部分。我知道這個領域的一些競爭對手正在苦苦掙扎。因此，也許您可以幫助我們了解與 COVID 之前相比，該機會在市場上發生了怎樣的廣泛變化？或者，如果您對它的看法與當時有所不同？

Alexa, so let me start with luxury and then I'll throw it to Adrian to talk about the double-digit EBITDA profile and how we're kind of thinking about that in the future. So -- we are bullish on luxury. And this is a share gain for us in terms of going after the luxury opportunities. You have a customer that remains healthy. They have the resources. As I mentioned, they're really spending where there is scarcity and specialness. So the full omnichannel experience is quite important. What is the experience like online, what is it in stores, what it is, in many cases, there is a colleague, customer relationship that is quite developed. And they're very discerning our customers on their purchases. So how do we think about that?

Alexa，所以讓我從奢侈品開始，然後我會把它扔給阿德里安來談談兩位數的 EBITDA 概況以及我們在未來如何考慮這一點。所以——我們看好奢侈品。就追求奢侈品機會而言，這對我們來說是一種分享收益。您有一個保持健康的客戶。他們有資源。正如我提到的，他們實際上是在稀缺和特殊的地方消費。因此，完整的全渠道體驗非常重要。線上是什麼體驗，店裡是什麼體驗，很多時候有一個同事，客戶關係是挺發達的。他們在購買時非常挑剔我們的客戶。那麼我們如何考慮呢？

So we are definitely committed to additional market share in -- particularly when you think about Bloomingdale's and you look at Bluemercury. So when you think about how that manifests when you look at Bloomingdale's. So we have really want to be that customer's consideration for a multi-brand upscale retail option. We just finished our 150th anniversary at Bloomingdale's and spent a lot of time on content -- exclusive content and really developing strong mutually productive relationships with established luxury brands. And this can be approachable to aspirational, a real curated expansion of luxury labels that our customers love. And those are adding new content, not only on the website, but in individual stores is -- and these can have huge effects on overall comps.

因此，我們絕對致力於擴大市場份額——尤其是當你想到 Bloomingdale's 和 Bluemercury 時。因此，當您考慮在 Bloomingdale's 時它是如何體現的。因此，我們真的很想成為客戶對多品牌高檔零售選擇的考慮。我們剛剛結束了 Bloomingdale's 的 150 週年慶典，並在內容上花費了大量時間——獨家內容，並真正與知名奢侈品牌建立了牢固的互惠互利的關係。這對於我們的客戶喜愛的奢侈品牌來說，是一種令人嚮往的、真正精心策劃的擴張。那些正在添加新內容，不僅在網站上，而且在各個商店中都是——這些會對整體競爭產生巨大影響。

So we're very focused on that. We're using data and analytics. We're leaning into the breadth of offering to ensure that we have the right content. I pointed to a couple of areas that we're really focused on would be the luxury offerings as well as the advanced contemporary offerings so that when you walk into a Bloomingdale, so you go on to the website, you know clearly what we stand for and to -- and that we believe is going to yield as it has in 2022, continued market share gains.

所以我們非常專注於此。我們正在使用數據和分析。我們正在努力擴大產品範圍，以確保我們擁有正確的內容。我指出了我們真正關注的幾個領域，即奢侈品和先進的現代產品，這樣當您走進布魯明戴爾百貨公司並訪問該網站時，您就會清楚地知道我們代表什麼並且 - 我們相信它將像 2022 年那樣產生收益，繼續增加市場份額。

I think when you think about Bluemercury, and that had an outstanding year. And when you look at that new management team is doing a great job on their -- a lot of work on the horizon now. And so when you think about the strength that we have in proprietary brands there, it's a big chunk of the business. When you look at what they're doing, they got a 12% increase in active customers in 2022. So we are definitely focused on reinvigoring the client experience, refreshing the assortment and services because of the spy element of that to really cement us as a beauty authority in those price ranges. We're adding a rotation of brands in the cachet discovering platform, which is similar to what Bloomingdale's is doing with their carousel program. And we're expanding our footprint in high-potential markets and neighborhoods.

我想當你想到 Bluemercury 時，那一年表現出色。當你看到新的管理團隊在他們的工作上做得很好時——現在有很多工作要做。因此，當您考慮我們在那裡的專有品牌的實力時，這是業務的很大一部分。當你看看他們在做什麼時，他們在 2022 年的活躍客戶增加了 12%。因此，我們絕對專注於重振客戶體驗，更新產品組合和服務，因為其中的間諜元素真正鞏固了我們作為這些價格範圍內的美容權威。我們正在標誌性發現平台中添加品牌輪換，這類似於 Bloomingdale's 對其輪播計劃所做的事情。我們正在擴大我們在高潛力市場和社區的足跡。

And as I mentioned, when you think about Macy's, when we're having a strong year as well as it's been for a while in terms of the beauty area. So we're actively renovating our beauty departments as well as refreshing our website. We're renovating roughly 8 to 10 stores a year, and we're really doing that by sizing down our existing offers and then expanding it with great brands that we're adding. So I mentioned them in the call about what those are.

正如我提到的，當你想到梅西百貨時，當我們在美容領域經歷了強勁的一年以及已經有一段時間了。因此，我們正在積極改造我們的美容部門並更新我們的網站。我們每年大約翻新 8 到 10 家商店，我們實際上是通過縮小現有產品的規模，然後用我們正在添加的優秀品牌來擴展它。所以我在電話中提到了它們是什麼。

I think just -- for those of you that who are in New York, come to the Flower Show that we're coming, which is going to be in a couple of weeks, this Dior Made with Love is a massive collaboration we've done with a very important luxury brand that is really showing us as a fragrance destination, but married with the assets of what a true luxury brand can do with a retailer like Macy's Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury. So just -- that I think will give you the spirit of what we're looking to continue to expand at scale.

我想 - 對於那些在紐約的人來說，來參加我們即將舉行的花展，這將在幾週後舉行，這個 Dior Made with Love 是我們的一次大規模合作完成了一個非常重要的奢侈品牌，它真正向我們展示了香水目的地，但結合了真正的奢侈品牌可以與 Macy's Bloomingdale's 和 Bluemercury 這樣的零售商一起做的資產。所以，我認為這會給你帶來我們希望繼續擴大規模的精神。

Alex, I'll be very sustained on your question. So first and foremost, look, we are certainly focused on long-term sustainable growth. And that's really around low single-digit growth on owned plus licensed sales as well as total revenue. And as Jeff shared, there are clear a number of vectors that we're excited about at different levels of scale and maturity. But the most important thing is we've actually built that foundation in 2021 and 2022. We'll continue to complete a lot of our testing in pilot in 2023, but we're excited about the growth profile in 2024 and beyond.

亞歷克斯，我會非常支持你的問題。所以首先，看，我們當然專注於長期可持續增長。這實際上是圍繞自有銷售和許可銷售以及總收入的低個位數增長。正如 Jeff 分享的那樣，在不同的規模和成熟度水平上，我們對許多向量感到非常興奮。但最重要的是，我們實際上已經在 2021 年和 2022 年建立了這個基礎。我們將在 2023 年繼續完成大量試點測試，但我們對 2024 年及以後的增長情況感到興奮。

From a low double-digit EBITDA standpoint, we view that in terms of percent of revenue go forward. Starting in the first quarter, we will begin to report on a total revenue basis, but we are committed to that. We're committed to the growth vectors and the margin expansion vectors that will get us there.

從低兩位數的 EBITDA 角度來看，我們認為就未來收入百分比而言。從第一季度開始，我們將開始以總收入為基礎進行報告，但我們致力於此。我們致力於使我們實現目標的增長向量和利潤擴張向量。

The next question is coming from Dana Telsey of Telsey Advisory Group.

下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Dana Telsey。

As you think about the merchandise margin, which I believe was down around 300 basis points, how are you thinking about that going forward and especially the cadence as we move through the year? And on the data science journey, which seems to be very effective, how far along are you on that data science journey? Is there more to capture? And then just lastly, what are you seeing in shrink? How is that impact and how you're planning?

當你考慮商品利潤率時，我認為它下降了大約 300 個基點，你如何看待未來的發展，尤其是我們一年中的節奏？在看似非常有效的數據科學之旅中，您在數據科學之旅中走了多遠？還有更多要捕獲的嗎？最後，你在收縮中看到了什麼？這種影響如何以及您的計劃如何？

Terrific. So with regards to merchandise margin, we feel good coming into the year. So much of our merchandise margin is dependent on our inventory position, not just the level of inventory, but the composition and where we tend to win as having fresh inventory where we can get full price sell-through and our multi-category flexibility helps us quite a bit as well.

了不起。因此，關於商品利潤率，我們對今年的表現感到滿意。我們的商品利潤率很大程度上取決於我們的庫存狀況，而不僅僅是庫存水平，還取決於我們的構成和我們傾向於獲勝的地方，因為擁有新鮮庫存，我們可以獲得全價銷售，我們的多類別靈活性幫助我們也有不少。

As you can imagine, over the last year, we pivoted into occasion base and away from casual and that has served us well. But when the customer comes back, we'll be able to respond well. I think the disciplines around the open to buy to really respond to demand signals in local markets is going to serve us quite well. So we feel very good about that.

你可以想像，在過去的一年裡，我們轉向以場合為主，而不是休閒，這對我們很有幫助。但是當客戶回來時，我們將能夠做出很好的回應。我認為圍繞開放購買以真正響應當地市場需求信號的紀律將為我們提供很好的服務。所以我們對此感覺很好。

We're in the, I would say, mid to late innings on data science. The reality is, given what we're learning, it seems like the journey is not done. We continue to find more and more opportunities to expand margin profile through our data science. So it's really fascinating to see the insights that are coming through the learnings we saw in 2022, but we'll definitely take the opportunity to lean into the data at a much more granular level to make sure that we're finding even more margin opportunity. So there's more upside for us, and we'll be very clear about that as we continue to progress. As we think about our shrink levels, I'll have Jeff speak to that briefly.

我想說，我們正處於數據科學的中後期。現實情況是，考慮到我們正在學習的內容，旅程似乎還沒有結束。我們繼續尋找越來越多的機會，通過我們的數據科學來擴大利潤率。因此，看到我們在 2022 年的學習中獲得的見解真的很有趣，但我們肯定會藉此機會更精細地研究數據，以確保我們找到更多的利潤機會.所以我們還有更多的上升空間，隨著我們繼續前進，我們會非常清楚這一點。當我們考慮收縮水平時，我會讓 Jeff 簡短地談一談。

Dana, so shortage was worse than anticipated. And I think as you're hearing from other posts, it's an industry-wide trend. We definitely had an uptick since last year. Two factors. One is the shift -- the channel shift that you have going from digital back to stores. So obviously, you have more porous forgers in your stores than you do in your warehouses that are fulfilling most of your digital orders. So that was anticipated. And then you do have heightened fact in particular pockets of the country and we are working aggressively with our teams and local officials on how we can better protect our assets in the future.

Dana，所以短缺比預期的更嚴重。我認為正如您從其他帖子中聽到的那樣，這是整個行業的趨勢。自去年以來，我們肯定有所上升。兩個因素。一個是轉變——從數字回到商店的渠道轉變。很明顯，你的商店裡有更多的偽造者，而不是你的倉庫，這些偽造者正在履行你的大部分數字訂單。所以這是預料之中的。然後你確實在該國的特定地區提高了事實，我們正在與我們的團隊和地方官員積極合作，研究如何在未來更好地保護我們的資產。

The next question is coming from Paul Lejuez of Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Paul Lejuez。

It's Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up on the last question on shrink. I was just wondering how much it pressured your margins this quarter? And then separately, you guys talked about changing the way you incentivize buyers. And I'm wondering if you've had enough time, I'm not sure if you put that in place just in 4Q or a little bit earlier, but if you had enough time to see if it's actually changing behaviors.

Tracy Kogan 代替了 Paul。我只是想快速跟進關於收縮的最後一個問題。我只是想知道本季度它對您的利潤造成了多大壓力？然後，你們分別討論了改變激勵買家的方式。我想知道你是否有足夠的時間，我不確定你是在第四季度還是更早的時候把它放在適當的位置，但是你是否有足夠的時間看看它是否真的在改變行為。

Let's talk about shrink first. So as we reported it as when we talked about it at ICR, whereas we built that into our reserve. And so recognizing the trends have RFID on virtually everything that we do. So we're doing daily counts on our content. So we really know what's going on in the course of our buildings. And so we build that into our shortage reserve and whereas that went higher, we built that into our expectations when we revised our posts or our guidance in the end of January.

先說收縮。因此，正如我們在 ICR 上談論它時所報告的那樣，而我們將其納入我們的儲備。因此，認識到這一趨勢，我們所做的幾乎所有事情都採用了 RFID。所以我們每天都在計算我們的內容。所以我們真的知道在我們的建築過程中發生了什麼。因此，我們將其納入我們的短缺儲備金中，儘管該儲備金有所增加，但我們在 1 月底修改我們的職位或指南時將其納入我們的預期。

As it relates to your conversation about higher incentives. About higher incentives, that's been in place really since the beginning of 2020. So when we went to the net cash cost model, we basically then looked at not only our bonuses, but also how we incent our colleagues based on what they get in their annual reviews. So that is not a temporary and was not a recent action. It's been in place now for over 2 years.

因為它與您關於更高激勵措施的談話有關。關於更高的激勵措施，這實際上是從 2020 年初開始實施的。因此，當我們採用淨現金成本模型時，我們基本上不僅要考慮我們的獎金，還要考慮我們如何根據同事的收入來激勵他們年度審查。所以這不是暫時的，也不是最近的行動。它已經存在了 2 年多了。

And has it changed buying behavior? Has it -- I assume if it's continuing, it's kind of having the effect that you want.

它改變了購買行為嗎？有它——我想如果它繼續下去，它就會產生你想要的效果。

Yes. When you think about it, a plan is on the second -- the new season starts because of all -- we're making adjustments on our plans constantly based on customers. So to be able to react in real time to where customers are signaling interest with what you do with receipts and what you do with markdowns, and how you pull that back into, you might have somebody that is planning a business at a particular level, and it's much stronger than that. You want to make sure you're giving them the receipts and according markdowns to be able to fuel that business. And somebody that is slowing down from an original plan, you want to be able to do that.

是的。當你想到它時，計劃就在第二個——新賽季開始了——我們正在根據客戶不斷調整我們的計劃。因此，為了能夠實時響應客戶對收據的處理方式和降價處理方式的興趣，以及如何將其拉回，您可能有人正在規劃特定級別的業務，而且比那強多了。您要確保向他們提供收據和相應的降價促銷，以便能夠推動該業務。有人正在從最初的計劃中放慢速度，你希望能夠做到這一點。

If you've got those buyers that are owning those particular relationships and they're incented on the original plan, that's going to incent bad behavior. And what you really want to do is make sure that you've got behavior that is incenting where the customer is going. So I think it absolutely has changed the way that our teams are approaching being much more customer-centric and using the assets that we have to respond to that in real time.

如果你有那些擁有這些特定關係的買家，並且他們受到最初計劃的激勵，那將激勵不良行為。你真正想做的是確保你的行為能夠激勵客戶前往。因此，我認為這絕對改變了我們的團隊更加以客戶為中心並使用我們必須實時響應的資產的方式。

The next question is coming from Bob Drbul of Guggenheim Partners.

下一個問題來自 Guggenheim Partners 的 Bob Drbul。

Just a couple of questions just around pricing and AURs. When you look at what's happening with the consumer, a number of your vendors have worked to take prices higher and AURs higher. I'm just wondering, do you see -- any reason to believe that some of the prices will need to come down? Or do you feel good about some of these initiatives that have taken place. I just wonder if you can maybe comment on that, that would be helpful.

關於定價和 AUR 的幾個問題。當您查看消費者的情況時，您的許多供應商都在努力提高價格和 AUR。我只是想知道，您是否看到 - 有什麼理由相信某些價格需要下降？或者您對其中一些已經發生的舉措感覺良好。我只是想知道您是否可以對此發表評論，這會有所幫助。

So let me talk a little bit about AUR and then have Adrian kind of reinforce what we're doing with pricing to support that. I think what we're expecting is when you looked at 2022, we had an increase of about 4% in overall AUR. And that was largely ticket increases. I think what you're going to see in 2023 is there is going to be an increase in ticket prices but not near the level that it was in '22.

因此，讓我談談 AUR，然後讓 Adrian 加強我們在定價方面所做的工作以支持這一點。我認為我們的預期是，當您查看 2022 年時，我們的總體 AUR 增加了約 4%。這主要是門票增加。我認為你將在 2023 年看到的是票價將會上漲，但不會接近 22 年的水平。

And so when you look at the big change for us in terms of AUR is just having less and lower clearance markdowns that is moving through in the degradation of your overall AUR. We're going to have targeted promotions versus as broad-based as they used to be. And with a rightsized inventory that is really tied to sales demand in real time to customers, it's never perfect, but we're getting better at allocation. We're getting much better at really understanding where the customer is going in terms of potential trends and we're getting better with pricing science, which I'll turn it over to Adrian to give you some feedback on that.

因此，當您從 AUR 的角度來看我們的重大變化時，清倉降價越來越少，這會導致您的整體 AUR 退化。我們將進行有針對性的促銷活動，而不是像過去那樣進行廣泛的促銷活動。並且通過真正與客戶實時銷售需求相關聯的適當庫存，它永遠不會完美，但我們在分配方面越來越好。我們在真正了解客戶在潛在趨勢方面的發展方向方面做得更好，我們在定價科學方面也做得更好，我將把它交給 Adrian 給你一些反饋。

Absolutely. And Bob, I would just reinforce the thesis that Jeff described, which is inventory health is the gift that keeps on giving. The reality is that it spills into allocation, it spills into full price sell-through. And our discipline was initially the level, then we pivoted to the level of composition and now we're into things like the appropriate allocation by market, by store by channel, so it's really a discipline that we continue to mine for additional benefits.

絕對地。鮑勃，我只想強調傑夫描述的論點，即庫存健康是不斷給予的禮物。現實情況是它會溢出到分配中，它會溢出到全價銷售中。我們的紀律最初是水平，然後我們轉向組合水平，現在我們進入了按市場、按商店按渠道進行適當分配的事情，所以這確實是一個我們繼續挖掘額外利益的紀律。

The pricing science is highly linked to that. We talked a couple of years ago about location-level pricing that is fairly scaled at this point where we're able to really look at style, by location to be able to understand what is the optimal price to maximize margin. We've added the dimension of dynamic pricing, which allows us to really understand depending on a moment in time, what's happening in the industry and how we need to respond, but also, I think the next lever that we're thinking through quite a bit is this notion of personalized customer-centric offers and communication, which really allows us to begin to go after a reduced broad-based promotional platform. And that's a tremendous opportunity. We're very excited about what we've seen in our tests. So overall, I would say there is more to come, but the pricing science capabilities continue to grow, to continue to expand and continue to get more sophisticated. And with that will come even more margin health.

定價科學與此密切相關。幾年前，我們談到了位置級別的定價，在這一點上，我們能夠真正地按位置查看風格，以便能夠了解什麼是最大化利潤的最佳價格。我們增加了動態定價的維度，這使我們能夠根據某個時刻真正了解行業中正在發生的事情以及我們需要如何應對，而且，我認為我們正在考慮的下一個槓桿有點是這種以客戶為中心的個性化優惠和溝通的概念，它真的讓我們開始追求一個簡化的廣泛的促銷平台。這是一個巨大的機會。我們對我們在測試中看到的內容感到非常興奮。所以總的來說，我會說還有更多，但定價科學能力繼續增長，繼續擴大並繼續變得更加複雜。隨之而來的將是更多的利潤健康。

The next question is coming from Ashley Helgans of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Ashley Helgans。

Most of our questions have been answered. Just wanted to ask one on digital versus stores. So stores obviously had a really strong year this year. A year ago, you talked about achieving low to mid-40s digital penetration by 2024. Just was wondering if you could provide -- or are you providing any update on that target, looks like it will be around 32% to 34% this year. I know you have marketplace scaling for both Macy's and Bloomie's. So just how focused are you on still scaling digital to that level? And then Adrian, maybe how does that digital target impact to your long-term margin goals?

我們的大部分問題都已得到解答。只是想問一個關於數字與商店的問題。因此，商店今年顯然表現強勁。一年前，您談到到 2024 年實現 40 歲左右的數字普及率。只是想知道您是否可以提供 - 或者您是否提供有關該目標的任何更新，看起來今年將達到 32% 到 34% 左右.我知道梅西百貨和 Bloomie's 都有市場擴展。那麼，您對將數字技術擴展到那個水平有多專注？然後阿德里安，也許這個數字目標對您的長期利潤目標有何影響？

Let's talk about, so digital obviously grew significantly over 2019. And when you look at our business in 2022, it was up 31% versus 2019, with traffic up 7% and conversion up 11%, but definitely a drop off from where we were in '21. So kind of going through digital penetration through the years, it was at 25% in '19. In the pandemic, it was -- it hit the 40% level. In 2021, it abated and went to 35%. 2022, it went to 33%. And into your comment, we do see it stabilizing right now at the 32% to 34% range.

讓我們來談談，所以數字在 2019 年明顯增長。當你看看我們在 2022 年的業務時，它比 2019 年增長了 31%，流量增長了 7%，轉化率增長了 11%，但肯定比我們現在的水平有所下降在 21 年。這些年來，數字滲透率如此之高，在 19 年達到了 25%。在大流行中，它達到了 40% 的水平。到 2021 年，它有所減弱，達到 35%。到 2022 年，它達到了 33%。在您的評論中，我們確實看到它現在穩定在 32% 到 34% 的範圍內。

So that reset has really now occurred post pandemic, and we have a new baseline for digital penetration in '23. But we do believe that digital will grow in the future. And you mentioned in one of the big ones for us is not only getting better with functionality and experience but also what we can do with Marketplace. So we have a lot of work for us -- ahead for us on that, but we're quite excited about the early learnings in that. We've done a lot on our website. We've done a lot of our mobile app. I mentioned marketplace but we're leaving no stone unturned in terms of our opportunities in digital because part of the omnichannel flywheel is our presence there and how that basically addresses all the customer needs.

因此，這種重置現在真的發生在大流行之後，我們在 23 年有了新的數字滲透基線。但我們確實相信數字技術會在未來發展。你在一個重要的會議中提到，我們不僅在功能和體驗方面變得更好，而且我們可以用 Marketplace 做些什麼。所以我們有很多工作要做——在這方面我們還有很多工作要做，但我們對這方面的早期學習感到非常興奮。我們在我們的網站上做了很多。我們已經完成了很多移動應用程序。我提到了市場，但我們在數字領域的機會方面不遺餘力，因為全渠道飛輪的一部分是我們在那裡的存在，以及它如何基本上滿足所有客戶的需求。

As we think about the destination for us, it's really -- as Jeff described, a digitally connected omnichannel ecosystem. The stores matter, the digital matter, but how do you really integrate that in a very seamless way that's what the customer is looking for. When we think about our margin profile, we are focused on the low double-digit EBITDA as a percent of total revenue going forward. And that's something that -- we have a lot of conviction around. When you think about the growth of the digital channel, it's important to keep in mind that even though there may be an expense dimension, for example, parcel expense on the gross margin line, you do get a lot of SG&A leverage. So as we think about the composition of our digital penetration versus store penetration, we're obviously very focused on the impact of the different line items, but ultimately, what is the bottom line margin profile that, that delivers for us.

當我們考慮我們的目的地時，正如傑夫所描述的那樣，它確實是一個數字連接的全渠道生態系統。商店很重要，數字很重要，但你如何真正以一種非常無縫的方式整合這些，這正是客戶正在尋找的。當我們考慮我們的利潤率狀況時，我們關注的是低兩位數的 EBITDA 佔未來總收入的百分比。這就是 - 我們有很多信念。當您考慮數字渠道的增長時，請務必記住，即使可能存在費用維度，例如毛利率線上的包裹費用，您也確實獲得了很多 SG&A 槓桿。因此，當我們考慮數字滲透率與商店滲透率的構成時，我們顯然非常關注不同訂單項的影響，但最終，為我們帶來的底線利潤率是多少。

The other benefit as we think about digital is the expansion of capabilities that we've added. So when you think about margin health and you think about the flexibility of selling products on the own platform versus the vendor direct platform versus the marketplace platform, that's an additional opportunity for us to optimize our profit profile. So we tend to look at a metric called dead net profit. So as you can imagine, as we think about our marketplace profitability, there may be owned items that are more profitable on marketplace and so that's an opportunity for additional margin expansion. So those are the kinds of operational things that we're going after. But from a digital standpoint, we have many, many vectors to protect our margin expansion goals with various levels of digital penetration.

我們考慮數字化的另一個好處是我們添加的功能的擴展。因此，當您考慮利潤率健康並考慮在自己的平台上銷售產品與供應商直接平台與市場平台的靈活性時，這是我們優化利潤狀況的額外機會。所以我們傾向於看一個叫做死淨利潤的指標。所以你可以想像，當我們考慮我們的市場盈利能力時，可能有一些自有商品在市場上更有利可圖，因此這是額外利潤擴張的機會。所以這些就是我們要追求的運營方式。但從數字的角度來看，我們有很多很多向量來保護我們的利潤擴張目標，並通過不同程度的數字滲透。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Gennette for closing comments.

現在，我想把發言權交還給 Gennette 先生，讓他發表最後的評論。

So thank you, everybody, for your interest in Macy's, Inc. brands, and we look forward to updating you on our 5 growth vectors on our first quarter earnings call. Everybody, have a great day.

因此，感謝大家對梅西百貨品牌的興趣，我們期待在第一季度財報電話會議上向您介紹我們的 5 個增長方向。大家，祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This concludes today's event. You may disconnect your lines or log off the webcast at this time, and enjoy the rest of your day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的活動到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路或退出網絡廣播，然後享受接下來的一天。