梅西百貨 (M) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

本季財務表現

  • 營收:56 億,YoY -0.8%
  • 毛利率:38.9%,年減 170 個基點
  • 調整後 EPS:1
  • 調整後 EBITDA:6.16

本季營運成果

同店銷售額年減 1.5%,其中梅西百貨品牌可比銷售額下降了 2.8%。過去 12 個月,梅西百貨的品牌客戶數量增加了 7%,達到 4,390 萬活躍客戶。由於清倉降價增加,商品利潤率下降了 160 個基點。

梅西百貨品牌中,基於場合的產品類別 AUR (平均單價)年增 12.5%,疫情中的產品類別 AUR 下降了 6%。奢侈品繼續脫穎而出,本季的表現優於去年同期。信用卡營收 2.04 億,年增 700 萬。信用卡收入超出公司的預期,原因為壞賬水平低於預期。

庫存狀況

本季結束時,庫存水平上升了 7%,所有零售商都在處理過剩庫存,因此同業競爭下 7 月份的促銷降價幅度更大。與 2019 年相比,過去 12 個月的庫存周轉率提高了 15%,與 2021 年的水平保持一致。公司的目標是在年底前達到適當的庫存水平,預計 Q4 的庫存水平將是從頭開始建立的狀態。

消費狀況

公司目前沒看到不同收入族群交易下降的跡象,而是觀察到參與度的差異。白金會員和 Star Rewards 參與度仍高,偶爾購物者的參與度較低。儘管存在通脹壓力,節慶消費仍表現明朗。不過,6 月梅西百貨的客流量和支出下降,從父親節到 7 月的品牌年比銷售額,與 Q2 前幾週相比,下降了近 5 個百分點。

商品方面,基於場合的產品類別,包括職業和訂製運動服、香水、鞋子、連衣裙、及行李箱。銷售額年增長 8%,較 2019Q2 增長 21%。疫情期間的類別,包括運動服、休閒服、運動服、睡衣、及軟裝家居,在本季度繼續減速,銷售額年減 18%,比 2019Q2 下滑 12%。因爲消費者在必需品上面臨更高的成本,非必需消費品支出放緩。

FY2022 財務預測

  • 淨銷售額:243-246 億,比之前的預期下降了 1.2 億
  • 信用卡營收佔銷售額:3.3%
  • 毛利率:年減 150 個基點,由於降價銷售,所以低於之前的財測
  • 資產出售收益:7500-9000 萬,反映預計 Q3 近 3000 萬的資產出售收益
  • 調整後 EBITDA 利潤率:約 10.5%
  • 調整後 EPS:4-4.20

2022Q3 財務預測

  • 淨銷售額:51.6-52.3 億
  • 毛利率:年減 350 個基點以內
  • 調整後 EPS:0.15-0.21
  • 庫存的年增長率:與 Q2 相似

了解更多梅西百貨 (M) 相關資訊

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to Macy's, Inc. Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's hour-long conference is being recorded.

    早上好,歡迎來到梅西百貨公司 2022 年第二季度收益電話會議。今天長達一小時的會議正在錄製中。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to Mike McGuire, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    我現在想將電話轉給副總裁兼投資者關係主管 Mike McGuire。請繼續。

  • Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

    Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

  • Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us to discuss our second quarter 2022 results. As always, with me on the call today are Jeff Gennette, our Chairman and CEO; and Adrian Mitchell, our CFO. Jeff and Adrian have prepared remarks that they'll share after which we'll provide time for your questions. Given the time constraints, we ask that participants in the Q&A please limit their questions to 1 single-part question.

    謝謝你,接線員。大家早上好,感謝您加入我們討論我們 2022 年第二季度的業績。與往常一樣,今天與我通話的是我們的董事長兼首席執行官 Jeff Gennette;和我們的首席財務官 Adrian Mitchell。 Jeff 和 Adrian 已準備好他們將分享的評論,之後我們將為您的問題提供時間。鑑於時間限制,我們要求問答參與者將他們的問題限制為 1 個單部分問題。

  • Along with our press release from earlier this morning, a slide presentation has been posted on the Investors section of our website, macysinc.com. In addition to information from our prepared remarks, the presentation includes supplementary facts and figures to assist you in your analysis of Macy's. Also note that unless otherwise noted, the comparisons that we'll speak to this morning will be versus 2021. Comparisons to 2019 are provided where appropriate to best benchmark our performance given impacts from the pandemic.

    隨著我們今天早上早些時候發布的新聞稿,我們的網站 macysinc.com 的投資者部分已經發布了幻燈片演示。除了我們準備好的評論中的信息外,演示文稿還包括補充事實和數據,以幫助您分析梅西百貨。另請注意,除非另有說明,否則我們今天上午將進行的比較將與 2021 年進行比較。在適當的情況下提供與 2019 年的比較,以最好地衡量我們在大流行的影響下的表現。

  • I do have 1 housekeeping item to share with you this morning. On Thursday, September 8, at 8:05 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time, Adrian will be participating in a fireside chat at the Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference. This event will be webcast live on our Investor Relations website, so please circle the date on your calendars and plan to tune in.

    今天早上我確實有 1 件家務用品要與您分享。 9 月 8 日星期四,東部夏令時間上午 8:05,阿德里安將參加高盛全球零售會議的爐邊談話。此活動將在我們的投資者關係網站上進行網絡直播,因此請在您的日曆上圈出日期併計劃收聽。

  • Keep in mind that all forward-looking statements are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations and assumptions mentioned today. A detailed discussion of these factors and uncertainties is contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    請記住,所有前瞻性陳述均受 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的安全港條款的約束。這些前瞻性陳述存在可能導致實際結果與預期和假設存在重大差異的風險和不確定性今天提到的。我們向證券交易委員會提交的文件中包含對這些因素和不確定性的詳細討論。

  • In discussing the results of our operations, we will be providing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures as well as others used in our earnings release and our presentation on the Investors section of our website.

    在討論我們的運營結果時,我們將提供某些非公認會計原則的財務措施。您可以在我們網站的“投資者”部分找到有關這些非公認會計原則財務指標以及我們的收益發布和我們的演示文稿中使用的其他財務指標的更多信息。

  • Finally, as a reminder, today's call is being webcast on our website. A replay will be available approximately 2 hours after the conclusion of this call, and it will be archived on our website for 1 year.

    最後,提醒一下,今天的電話會議正在我們的網站上進行網絡直播。本次通話結束後大約 2 小時將提供重播,並將在我們的網站上存檔 1 年。

  • With that, I will turn the call over to Jeff.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給傑夫。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Mike, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in this morning's press release, our team put together another solid quarter on both top and bottom lines in the face of an increasingly challenging consumer environment. We generated quarterly net sales above our expectations at $5.6 billion, while comparable owned plus licensed sales decreased 1.6%. We also delivered earnings above our expectations, with adjusted EBITDA of $616 million and adjusted diluted EPS of $1. We benefited greatly from the steps we've taken to transform our business through our Polaris strategy. We are quicker and more agile and more prepared for the challenges in the current environment.

    謝謝,邁克,大家早上好。正如您在今天上午的新聞稿中看到的那樣,面對日益具有挑戰性的消費者環境,我們的團隊在頂線和底線上又創造了一個穩固的季度。我們的季度淨銷售額高於我們的預期,為 56 億美元,而可比自有和許可銷售額下降了 1.6%。我們的收益也超出了我們的預期,調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.16 億美元,調整後的攤薄後每股收益為 1 美元。我們從通過 Polaris 戰略轉變業務所採取的步驟中受益匪淺。我們更快、更敏捷,為當前環境中的挑戰做好了更充分的準備。

  • Over the past 2 years, as consumer demand rapidly switched between categories and channels and macroeconomic pressures intensified, our teams have taken disciplined actions and made tough decisions in order to ensure stability and health of our enterprise. We have fortified our model and strengthened our balance sheet, all while delivering an easier and more convenient shopping experience for our customers across channels and the value spectrum.

    兩年來,隨著消費者需求在品類渠道快速轉換,宏觀經濟壓力加大,我們的團隊嚴明行動,艱難抉擇,確保企業的穩健發展。我們強化了我們的模式並加強了我們的資產負債表,同時為我們的客戶跨渠道和價值範圍提供更輕鬆、更便捷的購物體驗。

  • Before we dive into the full details, I'd like to take some time to review how the pressures of the macroeconomic environment are affecting consumer behavior and what that means for us. During the quarter, Macy's brand customers across all income tiers slowed and shifted their spend. Persistently high inflation drove higher prices in food and fuel and in turn, led to higher interest rates in the softening market. As a result, overall consumer discretionary spending and sentiment weakened compared to the prior year.

    在我們深入了解全部細節之前,我想花點時間回顧一下宏觀經濟環境的壓力是如何影響消費者行為的,以及這對我們意味著什麼。在本季度,梅西百貨所有收入階層的品牌客戶都放緩並改變了他們的支出。持續高通脹推動食品和燃料價格上漲,進而導致疲軟的市場利率上升。因此,與去年相比,整體消費者可自由支配支出和情緒減弱。

  • Constrained consumer spend also shifted from goods to services, with more consumers choosing to spend on vacations, events and dining out. Despite the weakened environment, for Macy's, we continued to see strength in occasion-based categories, which include career and tailored sportswear, fragrances, shoes, dresses and luggage. Sales for these categories were up 8% to second quarter of 2021 and up 21% to second quarter of 2019. Like last quarter, pandemic-related categories, which include active, casual, sportswear, sleepwear and soft home continued to decelerate during the quarter, with sales down 18% compared to the second quarter of 2021 and down 12% compared to the second quarter of 2019.

    受限制的消費者支出也從商品轉向服務,越來越多的消費者選擇在度假、活動和外出就餐上消費。儘管環境疲軟,但對於梅西百貨,我們繼續看到基於場合的類別的實力,包括職業和定制運動服、香水、鞋子、連衣裙和行李箱。到 2021 年第二季度,這些類別的銷售額增長了 8%,到 2019 年第二季度增長了 21%。與上個季度一樣,與大流行相關的類別,包括運動服、休閒服、運動服、睡衣和軟裝家居,在本季度繼續減速,銷售額與 2021 年第二季度相比下降 18%,與 2019 年第二季度相比下降 12%。

  • Customers also exhibited more traditional pre-pandemic shopping behaviors, including more in-store shopping. This shift contributed to a digital sales decline of 5% and conversion that was down 3% compared to 2021. However, versus 2019, digital sales were up 37% and conversion was up 14%.

    客戶還表現出更傳統的大流行前購物行為,包括更多的店內購物。與 2021 年相比,這種轉變導致數字銷售額下降了 5%,轉化率下降了 3%。然而,與 2019 年相比,數字銷售額增長了 37%,轉化率增長了 14%。

  • Spending patterns for Mother's Day and Father's Day were encouraging, signifying that despite inflationary pressures, customers continue to shop Macy's for celebrating life's moments with family, friends and coworkers. Leading up to Mother's Day, we saw strength in beauty, dresses, career, sportswear and women's shoes. Before Father's Day, we saw strength in men's fragrances, tailored clothing, furnishings, outdoor sportswear and shoes. Combined with the 2 weeks leading up to both holidays, these categories were up 9% over the prior year.

    母親節和父親節的消費模式令人鼓舞,這表明儘管存在通脹壓力,顧客仍繼續購買梅西百貨,與家人、朋友和同事一起慶祝人生的每一刻。在母親節到來之前,我們看到了美妝、服飾、職業、運動裝和女鞋的力量。在父親節之前,我們看到了男士香水、定制服裝、家具、戶外運動服和鞋履的強勢。加上兩個假期前的兩週,這些類別比上一年增長了 9%。

  • Looking forward, we continue to feel confident in our position as a style source and leading gifting destination. However, spending trends fell as June progressed with Macy's brand seeing a decline in customer traffic and spending. Post Father's Day into July, Macy's brand year-over-year sales trended nearly 5 percentage points lower than the preceding weeks of the quarter. Our teams were prepared to tackle the slowdown quickly through the inventory management competencies we gained through Polaris. Our work in this area in the first quarter position us better compared to others, and we came into the second quarter prepared to compete in an industry that was largely over-inventoried.

    展望未來,我們繼續對我們作為時尚來源和領先禮品目的地的地位充滿信心。然而,隨著 6 月份的進展,隨著梅西百貨的客戶流量和支出下降,支出趨勢下降。從父親節到 7 月,梅西百貨的品牌同比銷售額比本季度前幾週下降了近 5 個百分點。我們的團隊已準備好通過我們通過 Polaris 獲得的庫存管理能力來快速應對放緩。與其他人相比,我們在第一季度在這一領域的工作使我們處於更好的地位,並且我們進入第二季度準備在一個庫存嚴重過剩的行業中競爭。

  • During the quarter, we observed that all retailers were working to shed their excess inventory, setting the industry up for higher permanent markdowns and promotional levels. The industry-wide inventory levels, along with the slowdown in consumer discretionary spend, resulted in elevated inventory levels within certain categories.

    在本季度,我們觀察到所有零售商都在努力減少多餘的庫存,為行業提供更高的永久降價和促銷水平。整個行業的庫存水平以及非必需消費品支出的放緩導致某些類別的庫存水平升高。

  • Additionally, supply chain pressures continued to ease as the quarter progressed. This resulted in receipts flowing in sooner than we experienced in the first quarter, and fallout rates continue to improve, with a 15% fallout rate representing a 5 percentage point improvement from the first quarter.

    此外,隨著季度的進展,供應鏈壓力繼續緩解。這導致收據比我們在第一季度的經歷更快地流入,並且下降率繼續提高,15% 的下降率比第一季度提高了 5 個百分點。

  • To better align inventory levels with consumer demand, we slowed receipts in market brands where we have more flexibility than our private brands. We effectively pulled the appropriate levers to manage inventory productivity while flowing fresh inventory to meet our customer needs.

    為了更好地使庫存水平與消費者需求保持一致,我們放慢了市場品牌的收貨速度,我們比自有品牌更具靈活性。我們有效地利用適當的槓桿來管理庫存生產力,同時流動新庫存以滿足我們的客戶需求。

  • Over the past 1.5 years, I've spoken to the success our team has had in navigating supply chain volatility. This quarter was no different. The improved use of data analytics enabled the team to respond quickly and adjust our inventory flow accordingly. We ended the quarter with inventory levels up 7%.

    在過去的 1.5 年裡,我談到了我們的團隊在應對供應鏈波動方面取得的成功。本季度也不例外。數據分析的改進使用使團隊能夠快速響應並相應地調整我們的庫存流。我們在本季度結束時庫存水平上升了 7%。

  • We acknowledge that we still have opportunities to improve our inventory balance by channel in store and mix of merchandise categories and brands. We are targeting appropriate inventory levels by the end of the year and plan to be aggressive in taking the necessary markdowns to drive faster sell-throughs in our aged inventory in seasonal goods, private brand merchandise and pandemic-related categories.

    我們承認,我們仍有機會通過店內渠道以及商品類別和品牌的組合來改善我們的庫存平衡。我們的目標是在年底前達到適當的庫存水平,併計劃積極採取必要的降價措施,以推動我們在季節性商品、自有品牌商品和大流行相關類別的陳舊庫存中更快地銷售。

  • Simultaneously, we'll bring in fresh inventory in categories in which customers are signaling demand. As a leading style and gifting destination, we know that the lifeblood of a fashion retailer is its ability to bring in fresh and exciting inventory. We're making strategic decisions to fuel the second half of the year, particularly by rebalancing our mix of market in private brands to ensure that we have the products our customers expect to see over the holidays.

    同時,我們將在客戶發出需求信號的類別中引入新庫存。作為領先的風格和送禮目的地,我們知道時尚零售商的命脈是其帶來新鮮和令人興奮的庫存的能力。我們正在製定戰略決策來推動下半年的發展,特別是通過重新平衡我們在自有品牌中的市場組合,以確保我們擁有客戶期望在假期看到的產品。

  • Our current healthy financial position when combined with the sensible management of our inventory through data analytics and pricing science enables us to bring in the brands and products to meet demand at a rate higher than we've done in recent history. More than 55% of our offerings during holiday 2022 will be new, an increase of over 30 percentage points from holiday 2019. And we believe this will position us well to meet customer expectations.

    我們目前健康的財務狀況與通過數據分析和定價科學對庫存進行合理管理相結合,使我們能夠以高於近期歷史的速度引進品牌和產品以滿足需求。在 2022 年假期期間,我們 55% 以上的產品將是新的,比 2019 年假期增加了 30 多個百分點。我們相信這將使我們能夠很好地滿足客戶的期望。

  • Yet we see risk in the continued deterioration of the consumer's discretionary spending in some of our categories and the industry-wide [blot] of pandemic-related category inventory. In light of this, we think it's prudent to recast our fall season. Our lower outlook accounts for the pressures we see in the back half of the quarter and the excess inventory that remains in the industry. The impact of these factors is reflected in the markdowns and promotions we anticipate needing to liquidate aged inventory and further reduce the merchandise category stock to sales imbalances by the end of the year. Adrian will review this in further detail.

    然而,我們認為消費者在我們的某些類別中的可自由支配支出以及與大流行相關的類別庫存的全行業 [blot] 持續惡化的風險。有鑑於此,我們認為重新調整秋季是謹慎的做法。我們較低的前景說明了我們在本季度後半段看到的壓力以及該行業仍然存在的過剩庫存。這些因素的影響反映在我們預計需要清算陳舊庫存並在年底前進一步減少商品類別庫存到銷售失衡的降價和促銷活動中。 Adrian 將對此進行更詳細的審查。

  • We've successfully navigated and weathered these type of challenges and economic downturns before. Today, we are better positioned with our advancements in technology and data science that enable us to meet customer demand while protecting our bottom line. We continue to enhance the customer experience with investments in personalization, our digital platform and physical optimal expansion, all supported by investments in our colleagues. Our people enhance our competitive advantage, and we're retaining and attracting the talent needed to advance our strategy.

    我們之前已經成功地駕馭並經受住了這些類型的挑戰和經濟衰退。今天,我們在技術和數據科學方面的進步使我們能夠在滿足客戶需求的同時保護我們的底線,從而獲得更好的定位。我們繼續通過對個性化、我們的數字平台和物理優化擴展的投資來增強客戶體驗,所有這些都得到了對我們同事的投資的支持。我們的員工增強了我們的競爭優勢,我們正在留住和吸引推進我們戰略所需的人才。

  • Our position as a leading omnichannel retailer across the value spectrum, as well as the efficiencies we've built into our business through Polaris, have allowed us to respond effectively to the changes in consumer shopping behaviors across income tiers, channels and categories.

    我們在價值範圍內作為領先的全渠道零售商的地位,以及我們通過 Polaris 在業務中建立的效率,使我們能夠有效地應對不同收入層、渠道和類別的消費者購物行為的變化。

  • Looking at each of our nameplates, comparable sales for the Macy's brand decreased 2.8% on an owned plus licensed basis. Macy's brand customer count increased 7% to 43.9 million active customers on a trailing 12-month basis. We continue to see strength in our most loyal and engaged customers.

    從我們的每個銘牌來看,梅西百貨品牌的可比銷售額在自有加許可的基礎上下降了 2.8%。過去 12 個月,梅西百貨的品牌客戶數量增加了 7%,達到 4,390 萬活躍客戶。我們繼續在我們最忠誠和參與度最高的客戶身上看到實力。

  • Our Star Rewards active members who totaled 29.5 million and accounted for 70% of our total owned plus licensed sales, which is a 5 percentage point rise year-over-year. Our highest loyalty tier, Platinum was particularly strong, and we're continuing to grow our active accounts primarily by new Bronze accounts, our most diverse and younger customer tier.

    我們的 Star Rewards 活躍會員總數為 2950 萬,占我們自有和授權銷售總額的 70%,同比增長 5 個百分點。我們最高的忠誠度等級白金特別強,我們將繼續通過新的青銅帳戶來增加我們的活躍帳戶,這是我們最多樣化和最年輕的客戶等級。

  • Similar to what we experienced during the first quarter, tourism remains below 2019 levels, although we see strength from Central and South America as well as Europe. We continue to expect international tourism in 2022 consistent with the level we saw in 2021.

    與我們在第一季度所經歷的情況類似,儘管我們看到中美洲和南美洲以及歐洲的實力強勁,但旅遊業仍低於 2019 年的水平。我們繼續預計 2022 年的國際旅遊業將與 2021 年的水平保持一致。

  • At our stores and on digital, we're seeing encouraging results from our new brand platform, Own Your Style, which reaffirms our position as a style and fashion authority among our customers. After seeing our branding in the second quarter, polled active customers were more likely to see Macy's as a source for great value and style with perception increasing 16 and 18 percentage points, respectively.

    在我們的商店和數字平台上,我們看到新品牌平台 Own Your Style 取得了令人鼓舞的成果,這重申了我們在客戶中作為風格和時尚權威的地位。在第二季度看到我們的品牌後,接受調查的活躍客戶更有可能將梅西百貨視為巨大價值和風格的來源,感知度分別提高了 16 個百分點和 18 個百分點。

  • Our off-price offerings, Backstage and the Bloomingdale's outlet are well positioned to capture demand during an economic downturn. During the quarter, Backstage store-within-store locations continued to post strong results powered by men's, women's and kids apparel, as well as beauty and luggage.

    我們的低價產品、Backstage 和 Bloomingdale's outlet 處於有利位置,可以在經濟低迷時期捕捉需求。在本季度,Backstage 店中店繼續在男裝、女裝和童裝以及美妝和行李箱的推動下取得強勁業績。

  • And luxury continues to stand out as both Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury outperformed in the quarter versus the prior year period. Comparable sales in the quarter for our Bloomingdale's brand increased 5.8% on an owned plus licensed basis, driven by strength across women's and men's and kids contemporary, dressy apparel and luggage. Bloomingdale's last 12 months active customer count increased 14% compared to the prior year.

    由於 Bloomingdale's 和 Bluemercury 在本季度的表現優於去年同期,奢侈品繼續脫穎而出。本季度我們的 Bloomingdale 品牌的可比銷售額在自有和許可的基礎上增長了 5.8%,這得益於男女裝和兒童現代、考究的服裝和行李箱的實力。 Bloomingdale 過去 12 個月的活躍客戶數量與去年相比增加了 14%。

  • Next month, Bloomingdale's will kick off its 150th anniversary celebration that will run through the holiday season and feature special events and luxury designer collaborations. Building on Bloomingdale's momentum, this celebration is expected to drive continued omnichannel growth and further customer engagement.

    下個月,Bloomingdale's 將啟動其 150 週年慶典,該慶典將貫穿整個假期,並以特別活動和奢華設計師合作為特色。基於 Bloomingdale 的發展勢頭,此次慶祝活動有望推動全渠道的持續增長和進一步的客戶參與。

  • Comparable sales for our Bluemercury brand increased 7.6%, driven by continued strength in color and skincare. Bluemercury's active customer count increased 9% compared to the prior year period. Overall, we remain focused on investing in the transformation of our operations to differentiate our business, drive market share and strengthen customer engagement, all while maintaining a healthy financial profile.

    在色彩和護膚品持續強勢的推動下,我們的 Bluemercury 品牌的可比銷售額增長了 7.6%。 Bluemercury 的活躍客戶數量與去年同期相比增加了 9%。總體而言,我們仍然專注於投資運營轉型,以實現業務差異化、提高市場份額和加強客戶參與度,同時保持健康的財務狀況。

  • We're executing on several key initiatives to support our transformation. First, we are continuing to ramp up our digital capabilities, including personalization that increases engagement with our customers and optimizes our omnichannel experience. We are optimizing our online platforms to provide better digital experiences, following the redesign of our mobile app in 2021, and we have seen strong conversion and growth with active app customers up about 17%.

    我們正在執行幾項關鍵舉措來支持我們的轉型。首先,我們將繼續提升我們的數字化能力,包括增加與客戶互動並優化我們的全渠道體驗的個性化。在 2021 年重新設計我們的移動應用程序之後,我們正在優化我們的在線平台以提供更好的數字體驗,我們看到了強勁的轉化率和增長,活躍的應用程序客戶增長了約 17%。

  • Second, Macy's Marketplace will launch in the coming weeks and will include product in a wide range of categories such as pets, home, kids, baby and maternity, beauty and health and toys and electronics. We have a great dedicated team in place to build on our marketplace to include hundreds of new brands over the next few months. We look forward to sharing more details in the near future.

    其次,Macy's Marketplace 將在未來幾週內推出,將包括各種類別的產品,如寵物、家居、兒童、母嬰、美容和健康以及玩具和電子產品。我們擁有一支優秀的敬業團隊,在未來幾個月內建立我們的市場,包括數百個新品牌。我們期待在不久的將來分享更多細節。

  • Third, Macy's Media Network is growing year-over-year across revenue, advertiser and campaign count. Recently, we've started to test a more engaging advertising experience through on-site videos on our desktop platform, offering brands to tell their stories with engaging content.

    第三,梅西百貨的媒體網絡在收入、廣告客戶和活動數量方面逐年增長。最近,我們開始通過桌面平台上的現場視頻測試更具吸引力的廣告體驗,為品牌提供通過引人入勝的內容講述他們的故事。

  • Fourth, we're making progress on reimagining and rethinking our private brand portfolio which will begin to take shape in 2023 and scale over 2024 and into 2025. While we're in the early stages of reimagining the portfolio to be differentiated, defendable and durable, we're excited for what's to come based on the success of our newest brand, And Now This and the refresh of INC.

    第四,我們在重新構想和重新思考我們的自有品牌組合方面取得進展,該組合將於 2023 年開始形成,並在 2024 年和 2025 年擴大規模。雖然我們正處於重新構想產品組合以使其具有差異化、可防禦和耐用的早期階段,我們對基於我們最新品牌的成功、Now This 和 INC.

  • And Now This, which we unveiled in mid-2021, has seen strong growth compared to more established private brands. And during the quarter, we began a rollout of our revamped INC private brand that has seen encouraging sell-throughs and new products. We look forward to a robust private brand portfolio that better entices existing customers while attracting new ones.

    與更成熟的自有品牌相比,我們在 2021 年年中推出的 Now This 增長強勁。在本季度,我們開始推出改版後的 INC 自有品牌,該品牌的銷量和新產品令人鼓舞。我們期待一個強大的自有品牌組合,在吸引新客戶的同時更好地吸引現有客戶。

  • Fifth, we recently announced that by October 15, we will expand our exclusive Toys"R"Us partnership to include every Macy's location, just in time for the holiday and gifting season. We're encouraged by the customer response in the current store locations, and we're seeing an improved sales trend in our kids business, which typically sits next to Toys"R"Us store-within-store. Toys is a huge opportunity for us with a fair share of market opportunity of $1 billion in annual sales.

    第五,我們最近宣布,到 10 月 15 日,我們將擴大我們獨家的 Toys"R"Us 合作夥伴關係,將梅西百貨的每個門店都包括在內,正好趕上節日和送禮季節。我們對當前商店位置的客戶反應感到鼓舞,並且我們看到我們的兒童業務的銷售趨勢有所改善,該業務通常位於 Toys"R"Us 店中店旁邊。玩具對我們來說是一個巨大的機會,在年銷售額 10 億美元的市場機會中佔有相當大的份額。

  • Sixth, we're taking steps to reposition our physical store footprint to better serve our customers and support omnichannel market sales growth. We're advancing our off-mall small-format store strategy by opening additional locations for both Macy's and Bloomingdale's, including our first replacement location in the St. Louis area. We look forward to sharing the findings in the future as they develop.

    第六,我們正在採取措施重新定位我們的實體店足跡,以更好地服務於我們的客戶並支持全渠道市場銷售增長。我們正在推進我們的非商場小型商店戰略,為 Macy's 和 Bloomingdale's 開設更多門店,包括我們在聖路易斯地區的第一個替代門店。我們期待在未來的發展過程中分享這些發現。

  • And finally, we're executing our commitment to creating a more equitable and sustainable future through our social purpose platform, Mission Every One. During the quarter, we increased our partnerships with diverse designers by refreshing icons and style. And to support our sustainability goals, we joined Better Cotton, an organization that promotes better standards and practices in cotton farming.

    最後,我們正在履行我們的承諾,通過我們的社會目標平台 Mission Every One 創造一個更加公平和可持續的未來。在本季度,我們通過更新圖標和風格增加了與不同設計師的合作夥伴關係。為了支持我們的可持續發展目標,我們加入了 Better Cotton,這是一個促進棉花種植更好標準和實踐的組織。

  • At Macy's, Inc. over the past 2 years, we've built a culture of transformation within our organization that has enabled us to better connect with our customers and to deftly navigate the challenges we've faced while continuing to deliver results that move us towards our goals.

    在 Macy's, Inc. 過去 2 年中,我們在組織內部建立了一種轉型文化,使我們能夠更好地與客戶建立聯繫,巧妙地應對我們面臨的挑戰,同時繼續提供讓我們感動的結果朝著我們的目標前進。

  • Before I turn it over to Adrian, I want to acknowledge and thank our entire Macy's Inc. team for delivering another solid quarter. Our customers require us to be flexible and disciplined in every area of our operations, and our colleagues are constantly adapting to meet our customers whenever and however they want to shop.

    在我把它交給阿德里安之前,我要感謝並感謝我們整個梅西百貨公司團隊提供了又一個穩健的季度。我們的客戶要求我們在運營的每個領域都保持靈活和自律,我們的同事也在不斷調整,以滿足客戶隨時隨地的購物需求。

  • With that, I'll pass it to Adrian for a deeper look into the second quarter, and details on the rest of the year.

    有了這個,我將把它傳遞給阿德里安,以更深入地了解第二季度,以及今年剩餘時間的細節。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. As Jeff noted, we delivered second quarter results above our expectations. Our financial health, our talented team and our continued investments in new capabilities, particularly those related to the use of data science and pricing, have allowed us to thoughtfully navigate through this period of uncertainty.

    謝謝,傑夫,大家早上好。正如傑夫所說,我們第二季度的業績超出了我們的預期。我們的財務狀況、我們才華橫溢的團隊以及我們對新能力的持續投資,特別是那些與使用數據科學和定價相關的能力,使我們能夠深思熟慮地度過這段不確定的時期。

  • Looking ahead, we will continue to remain disciplined by focusing on further transformational investments yielding healthy returns, the effective execution of our Polaris initiatives and the efficient use of cash. We will do so while remaining financially healthy in order to emerge as an even stronger and more well-positioned business than we are today. At the same time, we remain committed to long-term sustainable and profitable growth, including low single-digit compound annual sales growth and low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins to maximize shareholder value over the long term.

    展望未來,我們將繼續保持紀律,專注於產生健康回報的進一步轉型投資、有效執行我們的 Polaris 計劃和有效使用現金。我們將在保持財務健康的同時做到這一點,以便成為比今天更強大、更有優勢的企業。同時,我們仍然致力於實現長期可持續和盈利的增長,包括低個位數的複合年銷售額增長和低兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率,以實現股東長期價值最大化。

  • With that, let me walk through our second quarter performance within our 5 value creation levers before discussing our outlook. First is omnichannel sales. We generated $5.6 billion in net sales during the quarter, a decline of 0.8% versus the prior year. Comparable sales on an owned plus licensed basis decreased by 1.6%, which was ahead of our expectations.

    有了這個,在討論我們的前景之前,讓我回顧一下我們在 5 個價值創造槓桿中的第二季度業績。首先是全渠道銷售。我們在本季度創造了 56 億美元的淨銷售額,與去年同期相比下降了 0.8%。自有加許可的可比銷售額下降 1.6%,超出我們的預期。

  • As you may recall, the second quarter last year benefited from the accelerating economic recovery and government stimulus payments. Despite the absence of these benefits this quarter, 22% of omnichannel markets grew year-over-year with a large portion of those in our western and southern markets.

    您可能還記得,去年第二季度受益於經濟加速復蘇和政府刺激支付。儘管本季度沒有這些好處,但 22% 的全渠道市場同比增長,其中很大一部分在我們的西部和南部市場。

  • The second value creation lever is gross margin. For the quarter, gross margin was 38.9%, down 170 basis points from the prior year period and consistent with our expectations.

    第二個價值創造槓桿是毛利率。本季度毛利率為 38.9%,比去年同期下降 170 個基點,符合我們的預期。

  • Merchandise margin decreased 160 basis points driven by a year-over-year increase in clearance markdowns within Macy's. These markdowns were largely related to our pandemic categories seasonal goods and private brand merchandise. For instance, pandemic categories within Macy's saw a year-over-year decline in merchandise margin rate that was approximately 6 percentage points higher than that of occasion-based categories.

    由於梅西百貨的清倉降價同比增加,商品利潤率下降了 160 個基點。這些降價主要與我們的流行病類別季節性商品和自有品牌商品有關。例如,梅西百貨內的流行病類別的商品利潤率同比下降約 6 個百分點,比基於場合的類別高約 6 個百分點。

  • Promotional markdowns intensified in July as a result of the increasing price competition across the industry as all retailers worked to clear out excess inventory. Additionally, given today's inflationary environment, consumers focused more on price and took greater advantage of easier price comparisons on digital platforms across retailers.

    由於整個行業的價格競爭加劇,所有零售商都在努力清理多餘的庫存,因此 7 月份的促銷降價幅度更大。此外,鑑於當今的通脹環境,消費者更加關注價格,並更多地利用零售商之間數字平台上更輕鬆的價格比較。

  • We continue to make further investments in our pricing science capabilities to improve the speed and effectiveness of our pricing decisions that are necessary to compete in this climate. Those investments are focused on further enhancing the current suite of tools we have to support strategic pricing decisions. And we are launching additional capabilities to optimize pricing in more categories across locations and channels within the competitive landscape.

    我們將繼續對我們的定價科學能力進行進一步投資,以提高我們在這種環境下競爭所必需的定價決策的速度和有效性。這些投資的重點是進一步增強我們目前支持戰略定價決策的工具套件。我們正在推出額外的功能,以優化競爭格局中跨地點和渠道的更多類別的定價。

  • Partially offsetting the additional markdowns in the second quarter were higher ticket prices and favorable category mix shifts that help drive an owned AUR of approximately 5% for Macy's Inc. For Macy's brand, AURs with occasion-based categories saw a growth of 12.5% over the prior year. Higher prices and lower promotions drove the results within these categories. AURs within pandemic categories declined 6% due to higher promotional and markdown actions.

    部分抵消了第二季度額外降價的因素是更高的票價和有利的類別組合轉變,這有助於推動梅西百貨的自有 AUR 約為 5%。對於梅西百貨品牌,具有基於場合的類別的 AUR 同比增長 12.5%去年。更高的價格和更低的促銷活動推動了這些類別的結果。由於更高的促銷和降價行動,大流行類別中的 AUR 下降了 6%。

  • Delivery expense accounted for 4.5% of net sales. that's 10 basis points higher than last year, largely driven by higher fuel costs and an increase in the percentage of digital sales were filled through the vendor direct channel. Together, these more than offset the impact from the 2 percentage point decrease in digital penetration and the work we've done to reduce cost per package.

    送貨費用占淨銷售額的4.5%。這比去年高出 10 個基點,主要是由於燃料成本上漲以及通過供應商直接渠道完成的數字銷售百分比增加。總之,這些抵消了數字滲透率下降 2 個百分點和我們為降低每個包裹成本所做的工作所帶來的影響。

  • The third value creation lever is inventory productivity. Inventory turnover for the trailing 12 months improved 15% compared to 2019, while remaining relatively consistent with 2021 levels. Inventory management is and will continue to be a key focus as we leverage our data science capabilities.

    第三個價值創造槓桿是庫存生產力。與 2019 年相比,過去 12 個月的庫存周轉率提高了 15%,同時與 2021 年的水平保持相對一致。隨著我們利用我們的數據科學能力,庫存管理現在並將繼續成為重點。

  • An example of this is using our analytics to determine the optimal time to take markdowns at the style and location level in order to increase full price sell-throughs and AURs. It's investments like this that will allow us to maintain healthy margins and strong cash flows over time.

    這方面的一個例子是使用我們的分析來確定在樣式和位置級別進行降價的最佳時間,以增加全價銷售和 AUR。這樣的投資將使我們能夠隨著時間的推移保持健康的利潤率和強勁的現金流。

  • Expense discipline is a fourth value creation lever. -- expenses increased by $83 million or 4.4% to $2 billion. SG&A as a percent of net sales deteriorated by 180 basis points to 35.4%. As a reminder, when comparing SG&A to the prior year, we had a significant number of open positions in 2021 due to the tightening labor market and since then has filled the majority of the open positions.

    費用紀律是第四個價值創造槓桿。 -- 開支增加 8300 萬美元或 4.4% 至 20 億美元。 SG&A 占淨銷售額的百分比下降 180 個基點至 35.4%。提醒一下,在將 SG&A 與上一年進行比較時,由於勞動力市場趨緊,我們在 2021 年有大量未平倉頭寸,並且自那時以來已經填補了大部分未平倉頭寸。

  • Additionally, as of May 1, all of our colleagues in stores and distribution centers are now at a minimum wage base of $15 per hour, if not above. And we continue to adjust colleague compensation to remain a competitive and attractive employer of choice, while at the same time, remaining very disciplined in our SG&A productivity efforts.

    此外,截至 5 月 1 日,我們在商店和配送中心的所有同事現在的最低工資基數為每小時 15 美元(如果不高於)。我們繼續調整同事薪酬,以保持競爭力和吸引力的首選雇主,同時在我們的 SG&A 生產力工作中保持非常自律。

  • Compared to 2019, SG&A improved 390 basis points, reflecting the impact of the $900 million of annualized permanent Polaris cost savings from the 2020 restructurings. During the quarter, SG&A also benefited from the growth of Macy's Media Network, which generated net revenues of $30 million in the quarter, more than 60% higher than the prior year.

    與 2019 年相比,SG&A 提高了 390 個基點,反映了 2020 年重組帶來的 9 億美元年度化永久性 Polaris 成本節約的影響。本季度,SG&A 還受益於梅西百貨的增長,該季度產生了 3,000 萬美元的淨收入,比去年同期增長 60% 以上。

  • Credit card revenues were $204 million, up $7 million from last year. As a percent of net sales, credit card revenues were up 10 basis points to 3.6%. Similar to last quarter, credit card revenues exceeded our expectations, driven by lower bad debt levels than expected, larger balances within the portfolio and higher-than-expected spend on co-brand credit cards. Although we've seen bad debt trends better than our expectations, we are taking a measured view on bad debt for the remainder of the year based on potential early signs of rising credit delinquencies and slower payment rates in the second quarter.

    信用卡收入為 2.04 億美元,比去年增加 700 萬美元。作為淨銷售額的百分比,信用卡收入增長 10 個基點至 3.6%。與上一季度類似,信用卡收入超出了我們的預期,原因是壞賬水平低於預期、投資組合內餘額增加以及聯名信用卡支出高於預期。儘管我們看到壞賬趨勢好於我們的預期,但我們正在根據第二季度信貸拖欠率上升和支付率放緩的潛在早期跡象,對今年剩餘時間的壞賬採取謹慎的看法。

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $616 million for the quarter exceeded our expectations. After accounting for interest and taxes, these results generated adjusted diluted EPS of $1, down from $1.29 in 2021, yet up from $0.28 in 2019 and ahead of our expectations.

    本季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.16 億美元,超出了我們的預期。在計入利息和稅收後,這些結果產生了 1 美元的調整後攤薄每股收益,低於 2021 年的 1.29 美元,但高於 2019 年的 0.28 美元,超出了我們的預期。

  • Lastly, the fifth value creation lever is capital allocation. Critical to our success is our ability to manage our cash effectively and efficiently. Working capital productivity and maintaining a healthy balance sheet remain top priorities as we navigate through this uncertain environment.

    最後,第五個價值創造槓桿是資本配置。我們成功的關鍵是我們有效和高效地管理現金的能力。在我們度過這種不確定的環境時,營運資本生產力和維持健康的資產負債表仍然是重中之重。

  • Year-to-date through July, we generated $303 million of operating cash flow and invested $582 million in capital expenditures. Year-over-year, operating cash flow was impacted by outflows from accounts payable and accrued liabilities, as well as a net outflow from the change in merchandise inventories net of merchandise accounts payable due to the timing of inventory receipts and payments. Year-to-date, free cash flow was an outflow of $206 million.

    年初至今,截至 7 月,我們產生了 3.03 億美元的運營現金流,並在資本支出上投資了 5.82 億美元。與去年同期相比,經營現金流量受到應付賬款和應計負債流出的影響,以及由於存貨收支時間導致的商品存貨變動淨流出商品應付賬款。年初至今,自由現金流流出 2.06 億美元。

  • We are laser focused on using cash to invest in high-return opportunities that will accelerate the benefits of our Polaris strategy even with economic uncertainties that exist right now. For instance, supply chain monetization, we're building a faster, more efficient and more flexible network to move product through our system at a lower cost. This includes a number of projects we've announced this year, including market-based fulfillment centers in select stores and our distribution center being built in China Grove, North Carolina.

    我們專注於使用現金投資高回報機會,即使目前存在經濟不確定性,這些機會也會加速我們的 Polaris 戰略的收益。例如,供應鏈貨幣化,我們正在建立一個更快、更高效、更靈活的網絡,以更低的成本在我們的系統中移動產品。這包括我們今年宣布的一些項目,包括在精選商店中的市場化履行中心和我們在北卡羅來納州格羅夫建造的配送中心。

  • Our investments in simplifying our technology infrastructure and growing our data analytics capabilities is designed to accelerate the speed of decision making within our operations and simplify the complexity that existed within our technology infrastructure. This will ultimately lower the cost of doing business.

    我們在簡化技術基礎設施和提高數據分析能力方面的投資旨在加快我們運營中的決策速度,並簡化我們技術基礎設施中存在的複雜性。這將最終降低開展業務的成本。

  • Digital Marketplace is another high return investment that is all about assortment and brand expansion under a curated platform and without the inventory handling costs. And finally, personalization is necessary to increase the relevancy, quality and frequency of our interactions with our customers in order to drive incremental sales and margin. While investing in our capabilities, we have and will continue to prioritize liquidity and balance sheet and health in order to maintain flexibility and the ability to respond quickly to a variety of opportunities as they arise.

    數字市場是另一項高回報投資,它完全是在一個精心策劃的平台下進行分類和品牌擴張,並且沒有庫存處理成本。最後,個性化對於提高我們與客戶互動的相關性、質量和頻率是必要的,以推動增加銷售額和利潤。在投資於我們的能力的同時,我們已經並將繼續優先考慮流動性、資產負債表和健康狀況,以保持靈活性和快速響應各種機會出現的能力。

  • Next, I'll walk you through our updated outlook for the third quarter and the remainder of the fiscal year. Full details of our updated guidance can be found within the presentation on our website.

    接下來,我將向您介紹我們對第三季度和本財年剩餘時間的最新展望。可以在我們網站上的演示文稿中找到我們更新指南的全部詳細信息。

  • Our revised outlook for the year reflects a careful view of the impacts and pressures faced by the consumer and those placed on our business given the weakening macroeconomic environment. The consumer is not as healthy as they were in prior quarters. Studying much of the same industry data that many of you do, we have seen declining retail traffic in areas of weakening apparel sales over the quarter as the consumer faces higher costs on essential goods, particularly grocery. Wage growth is not keeping pace with inflation, which is putting pressures on savings rates.

    在宏觀經濟環境轉弱的情況下,我們修訂後的年度展望反映了對消費者和我們業務所面臨的影響和壓力的謹慎看法。消費者不像前幾個季度那樣健康。研究許多與你們中的許多人相同的行業數據,我們發現本季度服裝銷售疲軟地區的零售流量下降,因為消費者在基本商品(尤其是雜貨)上面臨更高的成本。工資增長跟不上通脹,這給儲蓄率帶來壓力。

  • Our earnings outlook for the remainder of the year incorporates the risks we see in some of our discretionary categories as well as risks associated with a more pronounced macroeconomic downturn. The actions we are taking are intended to drive sell-throughs and have the available product freshness customers are looking for. Additional markdowns will be taken in order to end the year with inventory at the appropriate levels.

    我們對今年剩餘時間的盈利展望包含了我們在某些可自由支配類別中看到的風險以及與更明顯的宏觀經濟衰退相關的風險。我們正在採取的行動旨在推動銷售並提供客戶正在尋找的可用產品新鮮度。將採取額外的降價措施,以使今年的庫存保持在適當的水平。

  • So for the fiscal year, here's what we expect for Macy's, Inc. Net sales of $24.3 billion to $24.6 billion, a drop of $120 million on both ends of the range from our prior guidance; gross margin down roughly 150 basis points from 2021, lower than our prior guidance due to the additional markdowns previously discussed; SG&A as a percent of net sales deteriorates approximately 120 basis points from 2021; net credit card revenues of approximately 3.3%.

    因此,在本財年,我們對梅西百貨的預期是這樣的。淨銷售額為 243 億美元至 246 億美元,比我們之前的預期下降了 1.2 億美元;由於之前討論的額外降價,毛利率比 2021 年下降了大約 150 個基點,低於我們之前的指導;從 2021 年起,SG&A 占淨銷售額的百分比下降了大約 120 個基點;信用卡淨收入約為 3.3%。

  • We've also narrowed our range for asset sale gains. It had been $60 million to $90 million, and we've changed it to $75 million to $90 million. This reflects an updated asset sale gain expected for the third quarter of nearly $30 million.

    我們還縮小了資產出售收益的範圍。原來是 6000 萬到 9000 萬美元,我們現在把它變成了 7500 萬到 9000 萬美元。這反映了預計第三季度近 3000 萬美元的最新資產出售收益。

  • Our revised annual outlook now puts our adjusted EBITDA margin at roughly 10.5%. After interest and taxes, we are estimating annual adjusted earnings per share of $4 to $4.20. Our outlook does not consider the impact of any potential future share repurchases associated with our current share repurchase authorization.

    我們修訂後的年度展望現在使我們調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 10.5%。扣除利息和稅項後,我們估計調整後的年度每股收益為 4 至 4.20 美元。我們的展望並未考慮與我們當前的股票回購授權相關的任何潛在的未來股票回購的影響。

  • For the third quarter, we expect net sales between $5.16 billion and $5.23 billion and adjusted earnings per share between $0.15 and $0.21, inclusive of the asset sale gains we spoke of earlier. We estimate that gross margin deterioration versus 2021 will be no more than 350 basis points reflective of the impacts of the markdowns needed to drive higher inventory productivity and improve the composition of our inventory by year-end. It also reflects the risk associated with the competitive promotional climate intensifying within the industry and elevated fuel costs that we expect will persist.

    對於第三季度,我們預計淨銷售額在 51.6 億美元至 52.3 億美元之間,調整後每股收益在 0.15 美元至 0.21 美元之間,包括我們之前提到的資產出售收益。我們估計,與 2021 年相比,毛利率惡化將不超過 350 個基點,這反映了在年底前推動更高的庫存生產力和改善我們的庫存構成所需的降價的影響。它還反映了與行業內競爭激烈的促銷環境以及我們預計將持續存在的高燃料成本相關的風險。

  • While we are committed to taking the necessary markdowns, the year-over-year growth rate in inventory at the end of the third quarter is expected to be similar to the second quarter to ensure the appropriate freshness and inventory levels for the holiday season. For the fall season, we expect digital penetration to be approximately 35.5% considering the trends observed at the end of the second quarter and the expectation for digital return rates to remain elevated.

    雖然我們致力於採取必要的降價措施,但預計第三季度末庫存的同比增長率將與第二季度相似,以確保假日季節的適當新鮮度和庫存水平。考慮到第二季度末觀察到的趨勢以及對數字回報率保持較高水平的預期,我們預計秋季的數字滲透率約為 35.5%。

  • In closing, I want to reiterate that our financial health provides us with significant flexibility to respond to changing trends. We're investing in new capabilities to help us navigate through this uncertain period with strength.

    最後,我想重申,我們的財務狀況為我們提供了極大的靈活性來應對不斷變化的趨勢。我們正在投資新的能力,以幫助我們以實力度過這個不確定的時期。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back over to Jeff for some final words.

    有了這個,我會把它交還給 Jeff 做一些最後的話。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Adrian. Over the past 2 years, we have been thoughtful and measured in our decision-making to better prepare us to confront the unprecedented challenges we faced while protecting our business. This would not have been possible without our talented team driving our durable strategy.

    謝謝,阿德里安。在過去的 2 年中,我們在決策過程中深思熟慮和衡量,以便更好地準備好應對我們面臨的前所未有的挑戰,同時保護我們的業務。如果沒有我們才華橫溢的團隊推動我們的持久戰略,這將是不可能的。

  • While there is uncertainty ahead, our financial health and operational efficiencies bolster our confidence that we can effectively manage these difficult short-term pressures. At the same time, we feel confident that we can deliver on our long-term initiatives as part of our Polaris strategy. We firmly believe that we'll be able to traverse the challenges ahead, grow market share and profitability and emerge from this uncertain period as an even stronger business than when we entered.

    儘管未來存在不確定性,但我們的財務狀況和運營效率增強了我們的信心,即我們能夠有效管理這些艱難的短期壓力。同時,我們相信我們可以將我們的長期計劃作為北極星戰略的一部分來實現。我們堅信,我們將能夠克服未來的挑戰,增加市場份額和盈利能力,並從這個不確定的時期中脫穎而出,成為比我們進入時更強大的業務。

  • And with that, I'll turn it over to Q&A..

    有了這個,我會把它交給問答環節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from Oliver Chen of Cowen.

    (操作員說明)我們今天的第一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Oliver Chen。

  • Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

    Oliver Chen - MD & Senior Equity Research Analyst

  • Jeff and Adrian, we've also noticed cautious trends in July. Would love your thoughts on that month in terms of traffic and promotions and how that may interplay with your guidance as well as the level of markdowns you'll need to take. As you think about Macy's as an ecosystem, just a follow-up on the marketplace in media, they sound like big opportunities. How should we think about how that may impact the financial model near or longer term?

    Jeff 和 Adrian,我們也注意到了 7 月份的謹慎趨勢。希望您對那個月在流量和促銷方面的想法以及這可能與您的指導以及您需要採取的降價水平相互作用。當您將梅西百貨視為一個生態系統時,它只是媒體市場的後續行動,它們聽起來像是巨大的機會。我們應該如何考慮這可能會如何影響近期或長期的財務模型?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Oliver, let's talk about July. So the month of July, really since Father's Day, we saw that the back half of the second quarter was about 5 percentage points lower than the front half. So we had a very strong Mother's Day and Father's Day, as we quoted in the post. And that trend basically was we took that all the way back through the back half of the year, which informed where we were going to be in terms of our guidance.

    奧利弗,讓我們談談七月。所以7月份,真的是從父親節開始,我們看到第二季度的後半段比前半段低了大約5個百分點。因此,正如我們在帖子中引用的那樣,我們度過了一個非常強烈的母親節和父親節。這種趨勢基本上是我們在今年下半年一直保持這種狀態,這決定了我們在指導方面的發展方向。

  • We looked at the promotional levels. We looked at the inventory that was mounting in some of the pandemic categories as well as though, looking at our holiday opportunity and the newness, the gifting opportunities that we have and how we experience gifting in Mother's Day and Father's Day. So I'll factor it into our guidance.

    我們查看了促銷水平。我們查看了一些大流行類別中不斷增加的庫存,同時查看了我們的假期機會和新鮮事,我們擁有的送禮機會以及我們在母親節和父親節如何體驗送禮。所以我會把它納入我們的指導。

  • And I'll tell you, in the third quarter to date is basically conforming to our revised guidance, so when we're seeing how back-to-school is performing and how the first 3 weeks of August are performing, so in line with that.

    我會告訴你,到目前為止,第三季度基本上符合我們修訂後的指導方針,所以當我們看到返校的表現以及 8 月前 3 週的表現時,所以符合那。

  • I'd tell you that on Marketplace, we're excited about that opportunity. It launches over the next number of weeks. We'll give a lot of detail on that and in future calls, but we definitely expect that to be, number one, it's going to give our customers lots more opportunities to transact at -- on the Macy's brand as well as the Bloomingdale's brand in the future.

    我會告訴你,在 Marketplace 上,我們對這個機會感到興奮。它會在接下來的幾週內啟動。我們將在未來的電話會議中提供很多細節,但我們絕對希望這是第一,它將為我們的客戶提供更多的交易機會——在梅西百貨和布魯明代爾品牌上進行交易在將來。

  • And then with Macy's Media Network, that one has been a standout for us. And so when you look at the numbers that Adrian was quoted in the post, $30 million of revenue in the second quarter. Most importantly, customers are really taking to it and our brand partners are really enjoying the increased interaction that we're providing based on all the traffic that we get on our sites.

    然後與 Macy's Media Network 合作,這對我們來說非常出色。因此,當您查看帖子中引用阿德里安的數字時,第二季度的收入為 3000 萬美元。最重要的是,客戶真的很喜歡它,我們的品牌合作夥伴真的很享受我們根據我們在網站上獲得的所有流量提供的增加的互動。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Boss of JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Matt Boss。

  • Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

    Matthew Robert Boss - MD and Senior Analyst

  • The 8% category growth in occasion-based categories that you cited versus the double-digit drag in the pandemic categories, I guess, maybe larger picture, how was your overall view of the health of the consumer changed relative to 3 months ago? How are you planning demand for lower income versus higher income cohorts?

    您提到的基於場合的類別增長了 8%,而大流行類別中的兩位數拖累,我想,也許是更大的圖景,相對於 3 個月前,您對消費者健康的總體看法發生了怎樣的變化?您如何規劃對低收入人群和高收入人群的需求?

  • And then, Adrian, just on the gross margin, when we incorporate the markdown actions that you have embedded in the third quarter, how do you anticipate the forward look on inventory as we exit the third quarter relative to the fourth quarter?

    然後,阿德里安,就毛利率而言,當我們納入您在第三季度嵌入的降價行動時,您如何預測第三季度相對於第四季度退出時的庫存前景?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Matt, let me start. So basically, when you look at the spend by tiers, it basically slowed at basically the same rate. And so we're not really seeing evidence yet of trade down going on between different buckets of income levels, what we saw was differences in engagement. And obviously, our most productive customers, our Platinum customers and Star Rewards, we're highly engaged in; occasional shoppers were less engaged.

    馬特,讓我開始吧。所以基本上,當你按層次查看支出時,它基本上以基本相同的速度放緩。因此,我們還沒有真正看到不同收入水平之間貿易下降的證據,我們看到的是參與度的差異。顯然,我們最有效率的客戶、我們的白金客戶和 Star Rewards,我們都高度參與;偶爾購物者的參與度較低。

  • To your question about occasion based, that is -- those are just very healthy categories for us. So the AUR there was up about 13%. And you just got real standouts there where you've got men's clothing, AUR was up 29%. And missy career, which would be the equivalent of suiting and wear-to-work was up 20%, luggage was up 20%. So we expect those AURs to continue.

    對於您關於基於場合的問題,也就是說 - 這些對我們來說只是非常健康的類別。所以那裡的 AUR 上漲了大約 13%。你剛剛在男裝領域取得了真正的傑出成就,AUR 上漲了 29%。而小姐的職業,相當於西裝和上班穿,增長了 20%,箱包增長了 20%。所以我們預計這些 AUR 會繼續下去。

  • As we get into those categories that we have excess inventory to supply as well as where I would characterize the balance of the industry, we expect those to be constrained. Certainly, with pricing transparency, we're seeing those sell-throughs were depressed really since Father's Day. And so that's what we factored in towards our gross margin, particularly the gross margin that we're quoting for the third quarter of responding to that.

    當我們進入那些我們有多餘庫存要供應的類別以及我將描述行業平衡的那些類別時,我們預計這些類別將受到限制。當然,由於定價透明,我們看到自父親節以來,這些銷售量真的很低。這就是我們考慮到我們的毛利率的因素,特別是我們在第三季度引用的毛利率。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • If I could speak first to the markdown question that you raised and then I'll go into the inventory. The big headline on the gross margin overall is that it really reflects the actions that we feel are necessary given some of the challenges that you highlighted as we look ahead to the back half of the year.

    如果我可以先談談你提出的降價問題,然後我會進入庫存。總體毛利率的大標題是,考慮到您在我們展望下半年時強調的一些挑戰,它確實反映了我們認為有必要採取的行動。

  • But with regards to the gross margin, there are really 3 things that we're managing through in the fall season. The first, as you pointed out, is we've taken the necessary markdowns to clear the aging inventory. Jeff spoke about the seasonal goods, the private brand merchandise, the slow-moving pandemic categories. We want to work through those -- that inventory and mark down appropriately to increase sell-throughs and position us better going into the next year.

    但就毛利率而言,我們在秋季確實需要處理三件事。首先,正如您所指出的,我們已經採取了必要的降價措施來清理老化的庫存。 Jeff 談到了季節性商品、自有品牌商品、緩慢流行的大流行品類。我們希望解決這些問題 - 庫存並適當降價以增加銷售量並使我們更好地進入明年。

  • But we are also managing elevated supply chain costs. So I'd call that out as well. When you think about freight and delivery, fuel costs are currently trending down, but they remain elevated to what we saw earlier in the year. As you think about where we were last year, we saw raw materials like cotton prices increase and a lot of that is now flowing through this year as we're receiving those receipts.

    但我們也在管理高昂的供應鏈成本。所以我也會說出來。當您考慮貨運和交付時,燃料成本目前呈下降趨勢,但仍高於我們今年早些時候看到的水平。當您考慮我們去年的情況時,我們看到棉花等原材料價格上漲,而今年我們收到了這些收據,其中很多原材料正在流經。

  • The third thing I'd point to in terms of margins is really just the pressures within certain categories that are experiencing increasing promotional intensity as well as excess inventory across the retail industry. So as Jeff spoke about earlier, categories like sleep wear, men and women's activewear, casual sportswear, those are areas where we're going to have to respond, and we want to make sure that our margin profile actually reflects that.

    在利潤率方面,我要指出的第三件事實際上只是某些類別中的壓力,這些類別正在經歷不斷增加的促銷強度以及整個零售行業的庫存過剩。因此,正如 Jeff 之前所說,睡衣、男女運動服、休閒運動服等類別是我們必須做出回應的領域,我們希望確保我們的利潤率狀況真正反映這一點。

  • In contrast, we're also making sure that we're going to be disciplined on our buys. We are supporting freshness for the holiday season, but we're also very focused on inventory productivity and inventory health. And so our pricing sciences, watching the selling patterns in terms of demand and anticipating and quickly responding to those are going to be the kinds of things that we're doing to manage our gross margin position.

    相比之下,我們還確保我們將在購買時受到紀律處分。我們支持假日季節的新鮮度,但我們也非常關注庫存生產力和庫存健康。因此,我們的定價科學,根據需求觀察銷售模式,預測并快速響應這些將成為我們為管理毛利率狀況所做的事情。

  • Now as you think about the inventory, the inventory is an important piece to think through. As I mentioned earlier, we're going to take the markdowns necessary, we're going to flow the appropriate receipts to support strengthen the holiday season. But the important thing to keep in mind is we will end this year with the appropriate level of inventory.

    現在,當您考慮庫存時,庫存是需要考慮的重要部分。正如我之前提到的,我們將採取必要的降價措施,我們將提供適當的收據以支持加強假日季節。但要記住的重要一點是,我們將在今年年底以適當的庫存水平結束。

  • Now we do expect relative to last year, our ending Q3 inventory to be at similar levels on a rate basis relative to the second quarter. But that's really responding to the opportunity to be ready for holiday and have strength going into the back portion of the year. So that's how we're thinking about both the gross margin for the back portion of the year as well as the inventory.

    現在我們確實預計,與去年相比,我們第三季度末的庫存與第二季度的利率水平相似。但這確實是對為假期做好準備並在今年下半年有力量的機會做出的回應。這就是我們考慮今年下半年的毛利率和庫存的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from William Reuter of Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 William Reuter。

  • William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

    William Michael Reuter - MD & Research Analyst

  • I just have 1 question. In terms of the accelerated pace of asset monetization in the third quarter with this additional $30 million sale, does this say anything about the pace of monetization over the next couple of years? And if we were to think about what we might expect in terms of proceeds in aggregate over the next 5 years, do you have a sense for what that could be?

    我只有1個問題。就第三季度資產貨幣化步伐的加快而言,增加了 3000 萬美元的銷售額,這是否說明了未來幾年的貨幣化步伐?如果我們想一想我們對未來 5 年的總收益的預期,您是否知道那會是什麼?

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Bill, thank you very much for your question. So as I highlighted a little bit earlier, we continue to be comfortable with our asset sales forecast for this year. We do anticipate having an additional asset sale gain in the third quarter. So that's reflected in narrowing the range to $75 million to $90 million.

    比爾,非常感謝你的提問。因此,正如我早些時候強調的那樣,我們繼續對今年的資產銷售預測感到滿意。我們確實預計第三季度會有額外的資產出售收益。因此,這反映在將範圍縮小到 7500 萬美元到 9000 萬美元之間。

  • That being said, we continue to remain very committed to our real estate monetization priorities. As we think about the kinds of factors that are outside of our control that we have to kind of look and manage, it's really the interest rate environment and kind of any kind of slowdown that may exist on the horizon.

    話雖如此,我們仍然非常致力於我們的房地產貨幣化優先事項。當我們考慮到我們必須關注和管理的那些我們無法控制的因素時,實際上是利率環境和任何可能存在的放緩。

  • But we continue to be very excited about the opportunity around real estate monetization. We're watching the macro environment closely, and we're continuing to develop programs to monetize assets across our network. We have not provided any guidance around what the next 5 years or 3 years may look like. We'll certainly speak to what 2023 will look like in a couple of quarters, but we just know that we remain very committed to real estate monetization.

    但我們仍然對圍繞房地產貨幣化的機會感到非常興奮。我們正在密切關注宏觀環境,並且我們正在繼續開發計劃以通過我們的網絡將資產貨幣化。我們沒有就未來 5 年或 3 年的情況提供任何指導。我們肯定會談論幾個季度後 2023 年的情況,但我們只知道我們仍然非常致力於房地產貨幣化。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson of Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Lorraine Hutchinson。

  • Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

    Lorraine Corrine Maikis Hutchinson - MD in Equity Research

  • I was hoping just to get your views on your expected free cash flow profile for the back half of the year. And then also how you're thinking about the buyback, understanding it's not in guidance, but if you think that you will continue to repurchase shares with your excess capital in the back half.

    我只是希望了解您對下半年預期自由現金流狀況的看法。然後還有你是如何考慮回購的,理解它不是指導性的,但如果你認為你將繼續用你的後半部分的多餘資本回購股票。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Yes, so just to give a perspective on how we're thinking about both the free cash flow profile and buybacks. In times of uncertainty, our #1 focus is preserving cash and maintaining liquidity. That's really paramount for us. So as we think about our free cash flow and what's going to be driving it, one of the things that we're very focused on are continued investments in the kinds of initiatives that's going to drive margin expansion for us.

    是的,所以只是為了說明我們如何考慮自由現金流狀況和回購。在不確定時期,我們的第一重點是保留現金和保持流動性。這對我們來說真的很重要。因此,當我們考慮我們的自由現金流以及推動它的因素時,我們非常關注的一件事是繼續投資於將推動我們利潤率擴張的各種舉措。

  • We also want to preserve cash to maintain flexibility to support those fresh receipts that we spoke of earlier to really support the holiday season, and we want to make sure that we're maintaining balance sheet health as we navigate these uncertain times. Just know that we'll end the year in terms of our cash position in a way that will allow us to support our business goals. But we continue to be committed to our dividend, we continue to be committed to the remaining balance of share repurchase. But keep in mind that our share repurchase is open-ended.

    我們還希望保留現金以保持靈活性,以支持我們之前談到的那些真正支持假日季節的新收入,並且我們希望確保我們在度過這些不確定時期時保持資產負債表的健康。只要知道我們將以一種能夠支持我們的業務目標的方式結束今年的現金狀況。但我們繼續致力於我們的股息,我們繼續致力於剩餘的股票回購。但請記住,我們的股票回購是開放式的。

  • So for us, just to kind of recap, Lorraine, it's all about preserving cash and liquidity in these uncertain times.

    所以對我們來說,回顧一下,洛林,這一切都是為了在這些不確定的時期保持現金和流動性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Omar Saad of Evercore Partners.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore Partners 的 Omar Saad。

  • Omar Regis Saad - Senior MD and Head of Retailing/Department Stores & Specialty Softlines Team

    Omar Regis Saad - Senior MD and Head of Retailing/Department Stores & Specialty Softlines Team

  • I actually first just wanted to clarify, in that kind of slowdown that occurred during -- the 5-point slowdown that occurred during the quarter. Did both the COVID winning categories as well as the occasion-based categories all slowed down that kind of same 5 points?

    實際上,我首先只是想澄清一下,在本季度發生的 5 點放緩中發生的那種放緩。 COVID 獲勝類別和基於場合的類別都減慢了同樣的 5 分嗎?

  • And then I was also wondering if you could speak to performance of your older consumers versus a lot of the younger consumers that you picked up during COVID. You talked about the Platinum doing really well, is that mostly a boomer-type consumer?

    然後我還想知道你是否可以談談你的老年消費者與你在 COVID 期間挑選的許多年輕消費者的表現。您談到白金的表現非常好,那主要是嬰兒潮一代的消費者嗎?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • So let me start on the occasion-based categories did not slow down at the rate that the pandemic categories slowed down. And when you look at our older customers, they are -- when you look at kind of over 40 and under 40, we basically saw about the same level of slowdown between those demographics.

    因此,讓我從基於場合的類別開始,並沒有以大流行類別放緩的速度放緩。當您查看我們的年長客戶時,他們是 - 當您查看 40 歲以上和 40 歲以下的人時,我們基本上看到這些人口統計數據之間的放緩程度大致相同。

  • And as mentioned, the same thing we saw in the income buckets. What really characterized the activity was really their productivity level within the proprietary program. So the Gold and Platinum customers were retaining their spends and more of the less engaged customers or more occasion-based -- or the less occasion-based categories, those customers downshifted.

    如前所述,我們在收入桶中看到了同樣的事情。該活動的真正特點是他們在專有程序中的生產力水平。因此,黃金和白金客戶保留了他們的支出,而更多參與度較低的客戶或更多基於場合的客戶 - 或較少基於場合的類別,這些客戶降檔了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Kimberly Greenberger of Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kimberly Greenberger。

  • Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

    Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

  • I wanted to just make sure I'm doing the math right here on the comp sales in the first half of the second quarter as compared to the second half. If I'm hearing you right, comps were actually around plus 1 in the first half of the second quarter and down around 4. Is that right? Am I doing the math on that correctly?

    我想確保我在這裡對第二季度上半年與下半年相比的comp銷售進行數學計算。如果我沒聽錯的話,第二節前半段的比賽實際上是加 1 左右,然後下降了 4 左右。對嗎?我是否正確地進行了數學計算?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, you're in the geography. Right, Kimberly. Yes.

    是的,你在地理上。對,金伯利。是的。

  • Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

    Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

  • Okay. Great. That's super helpful. And then Q3 to date has sort of continued at that minus 4% exit rate, it sounds like, Jeff, so far here during back-to-school.

    好的。偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後到目前為止,第三季度一直以負 4% 的退出率繼續下去,聽起來,傑夫,到目前為止,在返校期間。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • It's a little better than that, Kimberly. But yes, that's in the same -- it's in the ballpark.

    比那要好一點,金伯利。但是,是的,那是一樣的——它在球場上。

  • Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

    Kimberly Conroy Greenberger - MD

  • Okay. Great. And then, Jeff, I just wanted to ask about inventory because obviously, consumer spending trends are changing. They're very dynamic. As you've come through the last 3 or 4 months, you've seen the categories that consumers are spending on change, in some cases, dramatically. So I'm guessing that you, along with the merchant team are sort of rethinking the inventory by going forward.

    好的。偉大的。然後,傑夫,我只是想問一下庫存,因為很明顯,消費者支出趨勢正在發生變化。他們非常有活力。在過去的 3 或 4 個月中,您已經看到了消費者在變革上花費的類別,在某些情況下,這些類別的變化非常顯著。所以我猜你和商家團隊正在重新考慮庫存。

  • If -- and I know you're sort of adjusting dynamically here through the fall season. But when in the future -- did you have a blank slate where you could just rebuild the inventory sort of from the ground with a fresh forecast? In other words, when do you think the buy on the inventory is going to be optimally repositioned and you'll have it sort of fully where you want it to be?

    如果——而且我知道你在整個秋季都在動態調整。但是在未來什麼時候——你有沒有一張白紙,你可以用新的預測從頭開始重建庫存?換句話說,你認為什麼時候對庫存的購買會得到最佳的重新定位,並且你會完全把它放在你想要的地方?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think we're in good shape on this subject. Obviously, we spent a lot of time and effort on this. So I would say that the buy for the fourth quarter onward and the stock levels that we will have entering into the fourth quarter are pretty much at the status that we would build from the ground up.

    是的。我認為我們在這個問題上處於良好狀態。顯然,我們為此花費了很多時間和精力。所以我想說的是,從第四季度開始的購買以及我們將進入第四季度的庫存水平幾乎處於我們將從頭開始建立的狀態。

  • So there may be -- and that's assuming the sell-throughs that we've been getting really since Father's Day and some of the slower categories, that they persist. We're taking more aggressive markdowns to ensure that when we talk about the kind of sell-throughs that we got since Father's Day and some of these pandemic categories, in second and third markdowns, that was off about 1/3 from the rates that we were getting previously in the quarter. And then first markdowns were off about 0.5 point. So we've taken those kind of sell-throughs, we've applied it to being more aggressive on our hard markdowns in our POS on all those categories.

    所以可能會有 - 這是假設自父親節以來我們真正獲得的銷售量以及一些較慢的類別,它們持續存在。我們正在採取更積極的降價措施,以確保當我們談論自父親節以來我們獲得的那種銷售以及其中一些大流行類別時,在第二次和第三次降價中,這與之前的價格相比下降了約 1/3。我們之前在本季度得到了。然後第一次降價下跌約 0.5 點。因此,我們採用了這種銷售方式,我們將其應用於在所有這些類別的 POS 中更積極地進行硬降價。

  • But assuming that, and you saw that in kind of our guide on the 350 basis point expectation, a degradation of gross margin in the third quarter versus '21 levels, so we believe that the stock-to-sales ratio are going to be close in the areas that are not trending. And we've been able -- we're already at status in those categories that are trending in both market and private brands. So we're flowing those goods appropriately.

    但是假設這一點,並且您在我們對 350 個基點預期的指導中看到,第三季度的毛利率與 21 年的水平相比有所下降,因此我們認為庫存與銷售額的比率將接近在不流行的領域。而且我們已經能夠 - 我們已經在市場和自有品牌趨勢的那些類別中處於地位。所以我們正在適當地流動這些貨物。

  • As mentioned, we feel good about the receipts that we've got coming in for the fourth quarter. So we feel that the post that will have an inventory at the end of the third quarter, as Adrian mentioned, similar to where we are right now in the second quarter, that's appropriate to where we're going into the holiday season. We expect the holiday buying still will be starting in the month of October as it did in the pandemic years. We want to be fully ready for that. And then as Adrian mentioned, we expect that our stock-to-sales ratio will be appropriate by category, by channel entering 2023.

    如前所述,我們對第四季度的收入感到滿意。因此,正如阿德里安所說,我們認為在第三季度末將有庫存的職位類似於我們現在在第二季度的情況,這適合我們進入假日季節的地方。我們預計假日購買仍將在 10 月份開始,就像在大流行年份一樣。我們希望為此做好充分準備。然後正如 Adrian 提到的,我們預計到 2023 年,我們的庫存與銷售比率將按類別、按渠道進行調整。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Kimberly, if I could just add a few things and amplify one thing that Jeff mentioned. With a bit of context, we are -- when you look at our inventory productivity, we're better than 2019 and relatively flat to last year when effectively, we're relatively lean, not only at Macy's, but across the industry. And I think that speaks to just the processes and capabilities that we've built around this topic of inventory productivity.

    Kimberly,如果我可以添加一些內容並放大 Jeff 提到的一件事。在一些背景下,我們 - 當你查看我們的庫存生產力時,我們比 2019 年好,並且與去年相比相對持平,實際上,我們相對精簡,不僅在梅西百貨,而且在整個行業。我認為這僅說明了我們圍繞庫存生產力這一主題建立的流程和能力。

  • But there's kind of 3 things that we're looking at as we look at the business going forward. One is just to Jeff's point, really improving the composition of inventory by category, by brand and by channel, and doing that in a way while we're still managing our buys very efficiently.

    但是,當我們展望未來的業務時,我們正在考慮三件事。一是傑夫的觀點,真正改善了按類別、品牌和渠道劃分的庫存構成,並且在我們仍然非常有效地管理採購的同時做到這一點。

  • The other piece is really leveraging our pricing science. We recognize that we're going to have to deliver competitive market prices in this environment, but we're doing it in a way that's going to improve our sell-throughs and improve relatively speaking, our margins as well based on what we've shared in our forecast.

    另一部分是真正利用我們的定價科學。我們認識到,在這種環境下,我們將不得不提供有競爭力的市場價格,但我們這樣做的方式將提高我們的銷售量並相對而言提高我們的利潤率,以及基於我們所擁有的在我們的預測中共享。

  • But the other piece is location-level pricing. This is something that we've spoken about earlier. And we're continuing to refine the mathematics and the technology around this, which just gives us a much better decision around how we're actually managing at a local store level or by channel, the pricing that helps us to remain competitive in this marketplace.

    但另一部分是位置級定價。這是我們之前談到的。我們正在繼續完善這方面的數學和技術,這讓我們可以更好地決定我們如何在本地商店級別或通過渠道進行實際管理,定價有助於我們在這個市場上保持競爭力.

  • And then the last piece that we're pretty excited about is really tapping into both the vendor direct and soon-to-be marketplace capabilities to really think about what channel or subchannel we're supplying those goods in the most profitable way. So those are some of the things that we're doing to manage through the inventory dynamics that's ahead of us as well.

    然後我們非常興奮的最後一點是真正利用供應商直接和即將成為市場的能力來真正考慮我們以最有利可圖的方式供應這些商品的渠道或子渠道。因此,這些也是我們正在做的一些事情,以通過擺在我們面前的庫存動態進行管理。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And we can go to Steph Wissink of Jefferies.

    我們可以去找 Jefferies 的 Steph Wissink。

  • Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst and MD

    Stephanie Marie Schiller Wissink - Equity Analyst and MD

  • I have 2 quick clarification questions. The first, Adrian, is just on the inventory balance year-over-year. Can you help us think about what inflation is in that figure versus units? And then I think you mentioned cuts in inventory with some of your national brands. Can you share with us a little bit about some of the categories where you're actually cutting inbound receipts?

    我有 2 個快速澄清問題。第一個,阿德里安,只是年復一年的庫存餘額。你能幫我們想想這個數字與單位的通貨膨脹率是多少?然後我想你提到了一些國家品牌的庫存削減。您能否與我們分享一些您實際削減入境收據的類別?

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • So I'll start with the inventory, and then I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk a bit about the assortment, so from an inventory standpoint, we expect to end the year in a very healthy position or an appropriate position. As you look at the third quarter, what we do expect is that the increase relative to last year is going to be more in line with what we saw coming out of the second quarter. And this is really about making sure that we have the freshness going into the holiday season. As you can imagine, last year, having the appropriate freshness and time for holiday was certainly a challenge within the industry. We feel that we're much better positioned on that.

    所以我將從庫存開始,然後我將把它交給傑夫來談談分類,所以從庫存的角度來看,我們希望今年年底處於非常健康或合適的位置。當您查看第三季度時,我們確實預計相對於去年的增長將更符合我們在第二季度看到的情況。這實際上是為了確保我們在假期期間保持新鮮感。您可以想像,去年,擁有適當的新鮮度和假期時間無疑是行業內的挑戰。我們覺得我們在這方面的定位要好得多。

  • As I mentioned a bit earlier, our input costs are higher. We're managing through inflation with regards to both logistics of getting the product to us as well as the raw materials that are going into the products that we sell. So what would be implied there is that we're bringing in product at a higher cost but on lower units to align with our unit velocity sell-through and our sales profile.

    正如我之前提到的,我們的投入成本更高。我們正在通過通貨膨脹來管理將產品提供給我們的物流以及進入我們銷售的產品的原材料。因此,這意味著我們正在以更高的成本引進產品,但在較低的單位上,以與我們的單位速度銷售和我們的銷售概況保持一致。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • So Steph, on the question on the kind of market burns, recognizing that when you talk about kind of the occasion-based categories and the market brands, -- our demand is up when you looked at the second quarter, up about 7%, and inventories are up 5%. So that's about the level that we want to see is having demand slightly outpace the supply, assuming that the year-end question is the right base.

    所以斯蒂芬,關於市場燃燒類型的問題,認識到當你談到基於場合的類別和市場品牌時, - 當你看到第二季度時,我們的需求上升了,增長了約 7%,庫存增加5%。所以這就是我們希望看到的水平是需求略高於供應,假設年終問題是正確的基礎。

  • And then when you look at the pandemic categories, if you look at our market brands, we've really been able to cut that back. So the demand there is down about 24% and supply was down about the same. So we were able to get those in status. And I feel pretty comfortable across our brands that we're in line with the categories that our customers are trending with. And we're always working through tweaks, but we're in pretty good shape there.

    然後,當您查看大流行類別時,如果您查看我們的市場品牌,我們確實能夠將其減少。因此,那裡的需求下降了約 24%,而供應也下降了大約相同的水平。所以我們能夠讓那些處於狀態。我對我們的品牌感到很自在,因為我們與客戶趨勢的類別一致。我們一直在進行調整,但我們的狀態非常好。

  • And again, where we've got big opportunities in the third and the fourth quarters, I don't expect issues in supply chain to be able to hamper our ability to flow those goods. So we're working with all of our market partners, and we've been doing that, obviously, in first and second quarters to get the rate, get the receipts in line with demand. And we're basically there now. And as we go through the back half of the year, we're going to stay very disciplined in that view.

    再說一次,我們在第三和第四季度有很大的機會,我預計供應鏈中的問題不會妨礙我們流通這些商品的能力。因此,我們正在與我們所有的市場合作夥伴合作,顯然,我們在第一季度和第二季度一直在這樣做,以獲取利率,讓收據與需求保持一致。我們現在基本上在那裡。當我們度過下半年時,我們將在這個觀點上保持非常自律。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Gaby Carbone of Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Gaby Carbone。

  • Gabriella Olivia Carbone - Research Associate

    Gabriella Olivia Carbone - Research Associate

  • Just wanted to get into Backstage, so flat comps for the quarter, which outperformed your Macy's full-line stores. Given the kind of the excess inventory out there, do you think there's the opportunity to provide customers with even better value at Backstage moving ahead? And then it sounds like you aren't seeing a trade down to Backstage from full line stores. Is that correct?

    只是想進入後台,所以本季度的業績平平,超過了你的梅西百貨的全線商店。考慮到這種過剩庫存,您認為有機會在 Backstage 繼續前進,為客戶提供更好的價值嗎?然後聽起來你沒有看到從全線商店到後台的交易。那是對的嗎?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, that's correct. So Gaby, would -- if you look at the -- first half Backstage is continuing to perform well for us. It definitely is a growth strategy for us. So we now have 308 locations opened in store-within-stores. We just opened State Street in Herald Square. When you look at -- and just what we've seen all the way through our journey with Backstage since 2015 is that customers who shop Backstage in our individual stores that also shop the balance of the store are our best customers. We're getting more frequent trips, they're more profitable for us, their spends are up quite strongly versus stores who were just shopping in a particular channel.

    對,那是正確的。所以 Gaby,如果你看一下 - 上半場 Backstage 繼續為我們表現出色。這絕對是我們的增長戰略。因此,我們現在在店中店開設了 308 家門店。我們剛剛在先驅廣場開設了州街。當您查看時 - 自 2015 年以來,我們在 Backstage 的整個旅程中所看到的是,在我們的各個商店購買 Backstage 並且還購買商店餘額的客戶是我們最好的客戶。我們的旅行越來越頻繁,他們對我們來說更有利可圖,與僅在特定渠道購物的商店相比,他們的支出增長非常強勁。

  • So we have not seen a big shift in the difference. When you look at the variance of the trends of those stores in Backstage versus the balance of the store during the second quarter versus what it was prior, not a difference. So we don't see a downshift into the -- whether you're seeing more customers from the full price going in the Backstage section, just the customers that are shopping between them are very healthy customers.

    所以我們還沒有看到差異的大轉變。當您查看 Backstage 中這些商店的趨勢與第二季度商店餘額與之前的差異時,沒有區別。所以我們沒有看到下降到 - 無論你是否從後台部分的全價中看到更多的客戶,只是在他們之間購物的客戶都是非常健康的客戶。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We can go to Paul Lejuez of Citi.

    我們可以去找花旗的 Paul Lejuez。

  • Tracy Jill Kogan - VP

    Tracy Jill Kogan - VP

  • This is Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I know you noted earlier that you hadn't yet seen the trade-down customer in your stores. And I was wondering what you've seen in prior periods of consumer weakness maybe in terms of early signs of the customer trading down? Is it to your private brands? And then when you do get the trade-down customer from other places to Macy's, when have you typically seen that? And where are they trading down from?

    這是特蕾西·科根(Tracy Kogan)為保羅填補的。我知道您之前註意到您還沒有在您的商店中看到以舊換新的客戶。我想知道你在之前的消費者疲軟時期看到了什麼,也許是客戶交易下降的早期跡象?是你的自有品牌嗎?然後,當您確實將其他地方的以舊換新的客戶吸引到梅西百貨時,您通常是什麼時候看到的?他們從哪裡交易?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Tracy, so again, we have not seen a trade down as of yet. And I think it really -- when I just would characterize our business, it's really just the difference between the categories that they're spending in right now. And so from the point of view of where you have an abundance of stock in certain categories, you're going to need to liquidate those at lower prices. We don't operate in a vacuum. Our competitors are in the same boat. So customers are going to take advantage of that.

    特蕾西,所以,我們還沒有看到交易下降。而且我認為真的 - 當我只是描述我們的業務時,這實際上只是他們現在花費的類別之間的差異。因此,從您在某些類別中擁有大量股票的角度來看,您將需要以較低的價格清算這些股票。我們不是在真空中運作。我們的競爭對手在同一條船上。因此,客戶將利用這一點。

  • Where we still have customer-wanted categories and there's more scarcity of product with us and with the market, we're getting the higher AURs. I mentioned some of those earlier. So that's how I'd characterize it right now.

    在我們仍然擁有客戶想要的類別並且我們和市場的產品更加稀缺的地方,我們獲得了更高的 AUR。我之前提到過其中的一些。所以這就是我現在描述它的方式。

  • When I would talk about on the Bloomingdale's, we're not seeing any -- we're seeing our most affluent customers continue to spend at very strong levels. the $150,000 and above. We have not seen trade down at Bloomingdale's either, and their business continues to be quite robust. But nothing yet, and nothing that's informing us from prior recessions that's going to suggest anything that we haven't put into our guidance for the balance of the fall season.

    當我談論 Bloomingdale's 時,我們沒有看到任何 - 我們看到我們最富裕的客戶繼續以非常強勁的水平消費。 150,000 美元及以上。我們也沒有看到 Bloomingdale's 的交易量下降,他們的業務仍然相當強勁。但目前還沒有任何信息,也沒有任何信息從之前的經濟衰退中告訴我們,這將表明我們沒有將任何東西納入我們對秋季剩餘時間的指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question is from Chuck Grom of Gordon Haskett.

    下一個問題來自 Gordon Haskett 的 Chuck Grom。

  • Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

    Charles P. Grom - MD & Senior Analyst of Retail

  • Adrian, on the credit front, in order to get to 3.3% of revenues for the year implies a pretty big drop in the second half, roughly 10% to 14% year-over-year. I guess can you speak to what's driving that assumption? Are you seeing a big change in credit quality bad debt?

    Adrian,在信貸方面,為了達到今年收入的 3.3%,這意味著下半年將出現相當大的下降,同比下降約 10% 至 14%。我想你能談談是什麼推動了這種假設嗎?您是否看到信用質量壞賬的重大變化?

  • And then, Jeff, just geographically, over the past 6 weeks, just wondering if you're seeing any major trends across the country.

    然後,傑夫,就地理而言,在過去的 6 周里,只是想知道你是否在全國范圍內看到了任何主要趨勢。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • Chuck, with regards to the credit card revenue, I think the punchline here is that we're just taking a measured view on bad debts for the remainder of the year. We're monitoring credit delinquencies, we're monitoring payment rates. And so as we look ahead, there are just a number of factors that, from our perspective, we just continue to take that measured view.

    查克,關於信用卡收入,我認為這裡的重點是我們只是對今年剩餘時間的壞賬採取謹慎的看法。我們正在監控信用違約,我們正在監控支付率。因此,當我們展望未來時,從我們的角度來看,只有一些因素,我們只是繼續採取謹慎的觀點。

  • So when we look at the industry more broadly, we see that inflation is outpacing wage growth. That's just not sustainable for the consumer. We see that consumers are under pressure with regards to elevated gas prices as well as double-digit increase in grocery prices. So as we look at some of these different indicators, we're just very thoughtful and very measured about what we believe bad debt will actually be.

    因此,當我們更廣泛地看待這個行業時,我們會發現通脹正在超過工資增長。這對消費者來說是不可持續的。我們看到消費者面臨著汽油價格上漲以及食品雜貨價格兩位數上漲的壓力。因此,當我們查看其中一些不同的指標時,我們只是對我們認為的壞賬實際情況進行了非常深思熟慮和非常衡量。

  • Now that being said, we are seeing increased balances, we are seeing increased co-brand spend. So that continues to drive more of a healthy guidance of about 3.3% of credit card revenue as a percent of sales as we think about what the outlook will be for the year.

    話雖如此,我們看到餘額增加,我們看到聯合品牌支出增加。因此,當我們考慮今年的前景時,這將繼續推動信用卡收入佔銷售額的 3.3% 左右的健康指引。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • And then, Chuck, to your second question, the western and really, the southern markets are performing better than you saw in our -- if you take a look at our slide deck, it will show you that 22% of our omni markets had increases in the second quarter. And what you'll see there is the Southern market definitely performed better.

    然後,查克,關於你的第二個問題,西部和南部市場的表現比你在我們的幻燈片中看到的要好——如果你看看我們的幻燈片,它會告訴你,我們 22% 的全向市場有第二季度增加。你會看到南方市場的表現肯定更好。

  • The other comment I'd make that within the quarter is the return of the downtown locations, not so much as a result of tourism, but certainly a return to work. And so those return to work and getting the traffic around those buildings with more offices being filled, albeit not certainly at levels that we were pre-pandemic, but certainly better than we were in the -- against the quarter of comparison. And that is -- that's really helping us.

    我要在本季度提出的另一條評論是市中心地點的回歸,與其說是旅遊業的結果,不如說是重返工作崗位。因此,這些人重返工作崗位,並在這些建築物周圍增加了交通,更多的辦公室被填滿,儘管不一定達到我們在大流行前的水平,但肯定比我們在比較時的水平要好。那就是——這真的對我們有幫助。

  • When you look at like downtown, certainly here Herald Square, Union Square, you look at downtown Boston and Washington, D.C., those are all -- those locations are quite strong. So Southern markets in downtown locations would be how I'd characterize the geography question.

    當你看市中心時,當然是先驅廣場、聯合廣場、波士頓市中心和華盛頓特區,這些都是——這些地方都非常強大。因此,位於市中心的南方市場將是我描述地理問題的方式。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jay Sole of UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jay Sole。

  • Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

    Jay Daniel Sole - Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst of Softlines & Luxury

  • A 3-part question. First is, Jeff, can you elaborate a little bit on the Toys opportunity, specifically in 4Q? I think you said that toy sales grew 3x over 2Q of '21, and you see a $1 billion opportunity. So what does that imply about maybe the opportunity in 4Q?

    一個 3 部分的問題。首先,傑夫,您能否詳細說明一下玩具機會,特別是在第四季度?我想你說過玩具銷售額比 21 年第二季度增長了 3 倍,你看到了 10 億美元的機會。那麼這意味著第四季度的機會可能是什麼?

  • And then secondly, thinking about Omicron last year and how that impacted comps and sales, what do you think about lapping that this year? What kind of opportunity would that create for December?

    其次,想想去年的 Omicron 以及這對補償和銷售有何影響,您對今年的研磨有何看法?這將為 12 月創造什麼樣的機會?

  • And then lastly, during the quarter, you announced the acceleration of the growth of the off-mall small-format strategy. So could you just maybe give us a little bit of an update there and tell us what you're seeing and what the bigger picture opportunity is for the smaller format stores?

    最後,在本季度,您宣布加速非商城小格式戰略的增長。那麼,您能否給我們一些更新,告訴我們您所看到的以及較小格式商店的更大前景機會是什麼?

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay, Jay, so let's just take it from the top on toys. The fair share opportunity would be if you take Macy's percentage within these categories and you apply it to the overall toy market, that's how you get to $1 billion. That's not to suggest we're going to get to $1 billion at the end of '22. But that's currently what we're really pushing for.

    好的,傑,所以讓我們從玩具的頂部開始吧。公平的分享機會是,如果你將梅西百貨在這些類別中的百分比應用到整個玩具市場,這就是你獲得 10 億美元的方式。這並不是說我們將在 22 年底達到 10 億美元。但這正是我們目前真正推動的目標。

  • When we signed on with Toys"R"Us, and we decided to put the investment that we went against this, it was recognizing that we were -- had a very small toy business. It was in Backstage and online. We did not have a developed toy business. This is really putting us in the game.

    當我們與 Toys"R"Us 簽約時,我們決定投入我們所反對的投資,這是因為我們認識到我們 - 擁有一家非常小的玩具業務。它在後台和在線。我們沒有發達的玩具業務。這真的讓我們參與了遊戲。

  • We do believe that Toys"R"Us offers us the most experiential omnichannel toy experience in America. When all is said and done, we'll have 400 Toys"R"Us shops that will be constructed, including some flagships by October 15. So we're well on our way on that. So we have nothing but growth ahead of us with toys over the coming years.

    我們相信 Toys"R"Us 為我們提供了美國最具體驗性的全渠道玩具體驗。總而言之,到 10 月 15 日,我們將建造 400 家 Toys"R"Us 商店,其中包括一些旗艦店。所以我們在這方面進展順利。因此,未來幾年我們只有玩具方面的增長。

  • With respect to Omicron, frankly, the Omicron really affected us more in the month of January, obviously our smallest month of the year than the month of December. It started to -- we had a strong January last year, we had a tough January. So that's incorporated in our guidance.

    關於 Omicron,坦率地說,Omicron 在 1 月份對我們的影響確實更大,顯然是我們一年中最小的月份,而不是 12 月份。它開始了——去年我們經歷了一個強勁的一月,我們經歷了一個艱難的一月。因此,這已包含在我們的指導中。

  • And then with respect to off-mall, small-door format, we're continuing it. We have 3 formats there that we're really playing with. The first one is kind of the backfill strategy. That's where we've got high conductive markets, omni markets and where there is zip codes in which our digital business is not as high as the balance of the market and where there may be opportunities for us to put a new brick-and-mortar. You just saw us open Johns Creek in Atlanta. That would be an example of that.

    然後關於非商場,小門格式,我們正在繼續它。我們在那裡有 3 種格式,我們真的在玩。第一個是回填策略。這就是我們擁有高傳導率市場、全方位市場的地方,以及我們的數字業務不如市場平衡的郵政編碼的地方,以及我們可能有機會建立新實體的地方.您剛剛看到我們在亞特蘭大開設了 Johns Creek。那將是一個例子。

  • Then we have replacement markets where we basically have stores that we've identified to say, we have about 60 more stores that were neighborhoods that we said over time we might close. And those will be examples where by closing those in the past, we've seen us kind of firing customers, and how do we have a strategy in brick-and-mortar that pertains to those customers.

    然後我們有替代市場,我們基本上有我們已經確定要說的商店,我們還有大約 60 家商店是我們說隨著時間的推移我們可能會關閉的社區。這些將是通過關閉過去的例子,我們已經看到我們解雇了客戶,以及我們如何制定與這些客戶相關的實體戰略。

  • So Chesterfield is a big one for us. That's in St. Louis. We're opening up a Market by Macy's in October. We're closing the store that's in the Chesterfield Mall which is about 2 miles difference. And the Chesterfield Market by Macy's will be in a thriving strip center. So we're going to see how that works, and we're going to be testing that.

    所以切斯特菲爾德對我們來說很重要。那是在聖路易斯。我們將在 10 月開設梅西百貨的市場。我們正在關閉相距約 2 英里的切斯特菲爾德購物中心的商店。梅西百貨的切斯特菲爾德市場將位於繁榮的地帶中心。所以我們將看看它是如何工作的,我們將對其進行測試。

  • And then the third bucket is new markets, those places that have strong interest for Macy's. And we see that in the digital, in the buys in those zip codes and the opportunity to add a Market by Macy's in the future. So you're going to see that flavor pop into 2023. We're also applying on the Bloomingdale's front. So we are in Mosaic. There is another one that we're opening this year. There's one that we will be opening in the beginning of '23. We'll give everybody detail on that.

    第三個是新市場,那些對梅西百貨有濃厚興趣的地方。我們看到,在數字方面,在這些郵政編碼的購買中,以及在未來通過梅西百貨添加市場的機會。所以你會看到這種味道流行到 2023 年。我們也在 Bloomingdale 的前面申請。所以我們在馬賽克。今年我們還要開一家。我們將在 23 年初開放一個。我們會給大家詳細說明。

  • But the objective on this is recognizing that about 50% of brick-and-mortar business is done off-mall and how can we play in our ecosystem with a small-door format that works for both the Bloomingdale's and the Macy's brands. So we -- our hope is that we're going to have a scalable model in the future to be able to roll that out at scale.

    但這樣做的目標是認識到大約 50% 的實體業務是在非購物中心完成的,我們如何才能在我們的生態系統中以適用於 Bloomingdale's 和 Macy's 品牌的小門格式進行遊戲。所以我們 - 我們的希望是,我們將在未來擁有一個可擴展的模型,以便能夠大規模推廣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is from Bob Drbul of Guggenheim.

    下一個問題來自古根海姆的 Bob Drbul。

  • Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

    Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

  • Just 1 question that I have. As you think about the back half of the year and even into '23, there's just been a lot of discussion around your vendors taking price increases. And I'm just curious if you've revisited any -- the direction around the sales over the -- since post Father's Day.

    我只有 1 個問題。當您考慮今年下半年甚至到 23 年時,關於您的供應商採取價格上漲的討論很多。而且我只是好奇你是否重新審視了自父親節後以來的任何銷售方向。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Bob, you got kind of cut out in the middle of your question. You were talking about vendors and -- say that again, please?

    鮑勃,你的問題在中間被打斷了。你在談論供應商 - 請再說一遍,好嗎?

  • Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

    Robert Scott Drbul - Senior MD

  • I'm sorry, the question that I have is just on price increases. Like there's a lot of vendors that have talked about taking price in the back half of the year or into '23. Given the change in direction on the trends, are you revisiting some of these initiatives with your vendors? I'm just trying to understand how you're thinking about it going into the back half and into next year.

    對不起,我的問題只是關於價格上漲。就像有很多供應商都在談論在今年下半年或 23 年採取價格一樣。鑑於趨勢方向的變化,您是否正在與供應商重新審視其中一些舉措?我只是想了解你是如何考慮進入後半場和明年的。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. So I think we're -- you've got -- if you've got a trending category and you have a price increase, what I say is that our manufacturing partners, market partners have done a great job of not just having a price increase, but in many cases, putting more quality into the goods, either more make or more trim, more quality, and that's commanding a higher price point.

    是的。所以我認為我們 - 你有 - 如果你有一個趨勢類別並且你有價格上漲,我想說的是我們的製造合作夥伴,市場合作夥伴做得很好,不僅僅是擁有一個價格上漲,但在許多情況下,將更多質量放入商品中,要么更多製造,要么更多裝飾,更多質量,這就是更高的價格點。

  • And when you're in a category that is, let's say, occasion-based or other categories that are not pandemic in that particular flavor, we're passing on those cost increases, and the customers are responding quite well to it. So I mentioned that in like men's clothing, I mentioned that in women's clothing as well as luggage. But there's brands. I look at Ralph Lauren, it's a great example of that. Ralph Lauren has really improved their quality. We're getting much higher AURs there. We're fully aligned with that brand in terms of our strategy together. And that includes improving the customer experience, both online as well as in store.

    當你屬於一個類別時,比方說,基於場合的類別或其他在那種特定風格中沒有流行的類別,我們正在轉嫁這些成本增加,而客戶對此反應非常好。所以我提到了像男裝一樣,我提到了女裝和行李箱。但是有品牌。我看看 Ralph Lauren,這是一個很好的例子。 Ralph Lauren 確實提高了他們的質量。我們在那裡獲得了更高的 AUR。就我們的戰略而言,我們與該品牌完全一致。這包括改善在線和實體店的客戶體驗。

  • So if you've got a considered strategy about what you're doing and there's good value in the price increases you're making, customers will transact quite well with that. So I think it depends on what category, what brand you're in. But as a general comment, I think we're fully aligned with our vendor partners on that strategy.

    因此,如果你有一個深思熟慮的策略,並且你正在做的價格上漲有很好的價值,那麼客戶就會很好地進行交易。所以我認為這取決於你所在的類別和品牌。但作為一般性評論,我認為我們在該戰略上與我們的供應商合作夥伴完全一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Binetti of Credit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Michael Binetti。

  • Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

    Michael Charles Binetti - Research Analyst

  • I guess a lot of our questions have been answered. But I guess when you look at the year you just guided us to and kind of step back, where do you think about where AUR will end the year, where units will end the year? And as you think about spring, I know there's some parts of the assortment, you have to start forming up plans a little earlier. So maybe at this point, just how you're thinking about positioning the business for a return to growth next year, lapping some of these AUR increases.

    我想我們的很多問題都得到了解答。但我想當你看到你剛剛引導我們回到過去的那一年時,你認為 AUR 將在哪裡結束今年,單位將在哪裡結束?當你想到春天時,我知道有一些分類,你必須早一點開始製定計劃。因此,也許在這一點上,您正在考慮如何將業務定位為明年恢復增長,並考慮其中的一些 AUR 增長。

  • Do you think about growth in terms of ordering units up as you look to spring to drive growth, plans to recapture some level of full-price selling against the guidance for more markdowns in the back half? Maybe just help us think about how you early on think about driving the business for growth after a year like '22.

    您是否考慮在訂購單位方面的增長,因為您希望春季推動增長,計劃在後半部分更多降價的指導下重新獲得一定程度的全價銷售?也許只是幫助我們考慮一下您如何在像 22 年這樣的一年之後儘早考慮推動業務增長。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay. So Michael, let me take the AUR, and I'll talk about how we're thinking about kind of return to growth and let Adrian add anything on that question. So when you think about AURs, what we quoted at the beginning of the year pretty much stands where we are right now, which is we think we're going to be up about 5%. That's what we were up in the second quarter with kind of the ins and outs of again, you've got pandemic categories, which is a chunk of our business, you've got other, which is a chunk of our business, then you've got the occasion-based categories, which is a chunk of our business. And when you look at the blend of all of that, we're in the ballpark of that kind of mid-single-digit AUR improvement as we look at it versus 2021.

    好的。所以邁克爾,讓我來談談 AUR,我會談談我們如何考慮恢復增長,讓阿德里安在這個問題上添加任何內容。因此,當您考慮 AUR 時,我們在年初引用的內容幾乎與我們現在的情況一致,我們認為我們將上漲約 5%。這就是我們在第二季度再次出現的情況,你有流行病類別,這是我們業務的一部分,你還有其他,這是我們業務的一部分,然後你有基於場合的類別,這是我們業務的一部分。當你看到所有這些的混合時,我們看到它與 2021 年相比,我們處於那種中等個位數的 AUR 改進的範圍內。

  • As you kind of think about where -- really an answer to Kimberly's question, we're really talking about just what we're focused on in terms of inventory and ensuring we've got the right inventory by channel, by location and certainly by category and brand. And so we do believe that having a better status across all of that in the stock-to-sales ratio, and making sure that you've got built in liquidity and just some reserve that is going on to be able to respond in season is really important.

    當您考慮在哪裡時——實際上是金伯利問題的答案,我們實際上是在談論我們在庫存方面關注的重點,並確保我們按渠道、位置和當然按渠道獲得正確的庫存品類和品牌。因此,我們確實相信,在庫存與銷售比率方面擁有更好的狀態,並確保你已經建立了流動性,並且只有一些能夠在季節做出反應的儲備是真的很重要。

  • And so that's a discipline that -- and Adrian went through all the tools that we're using once we get it in to make sure that we're maximizing the profitability on the way out, but also on the way in and the buy in, you have that same level of rigor that goes into how we're constructing it. So we want to retain flexibility. We're not quoting yet what our guidance is for 2023, but just know that our inventory and our stock to sales ratios will be in line with those expectations.

    所以這是一門學科——阿德里安在我們進入後使用了我們使用的所有工具,以確保我們在退出過程中最大化盈利能力,同時也在進入和買入過程中,您對我們構建它的方式具有同樣的嚴謹性。所以我們希望保持靈活性。我們還沒有引用我們對 2023 年的指導,但只知道我們的庫存和庫存與銷售比率將符合這些預期。

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • And Mike, just to add to Jeff's point, we remain committed to our long-term targets. And as you heard us speak to in prior calls, we're committed to low single-digit sales growth, as well as low double-digit adjusted EBITDA margins. But as we think about where we are today, we have to see how the consumer shopping behaviors and how the macroeconomic trends, really how they unfold for the balance of the year before we provide kind of a clear outlook for 2023. But that being said, as we think about longer-term targets, we remain committed.

    邁克,為了補充傑夫的觀點,我們仍然致力於我們的長期目標。正如您在之前的電話中聽到我們所說的那樣,我們致力於實現低個位數的銷售增長,以及低兩位數的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率。但是,當我們思考我們今天所處的位置時,我們必須了解消費者的購物行為以及宏觀經濟趨勢如何,真正了解它們如何在我們提供 2023 年的清晰前景之前在今年餘下時間展開。但話雖如此,當我們考慮長期目標時,我們仍然承諾。

  • A demonstration of that conviction that we have is really in the actions that we continue to invest in, in the near term. We're continuing to invest in initiatives that we believe are high-return initiatives, whether it's strengthening our pricing capabilities, our Macy's Media Network capabilities, which is our advertising agency or even building new sales capabilities with things like Marketplace.

    我們在短期內繼續投資的行動確實體現了我們的這種信念。我們將繼續投資於我們認為是高回報的舉措,無論是加強我們的定價能力、我們的梅西百貨媒體網絡能力、我們的廣告代理機構,甚至是通過 Marketplace 等建立新的銷售能力。

  • We're being very disciplined on inventory management to position ourselves for healthy and profitable growth next year. So a lot of the inventory productivity and pricing initiatives that we're referencing are really capabilities that we continue to lean into with strength.

    我們在庫存管理方面非常自律,以便為明年的健康和盈利增長做好準備。因此,我們引用的許多庫存生產力和定價計劃實際上都是我們繼續大力發展的能力。

  • But I would also say that we're investing in our talent as well. We're investing in our talent to execute a strategy for Macy's that is an evolved Macy's and it changed Macy's relative to what we've been investing over the last several years.

    但我還要說,我們也在對人才進行投資。我們正在投資我們的人才來執行梅西百貨的戰略,這是一個不斷發展的梅西百貨,它改變了梅西百貨相對於我們過去幾年一直在投資的東西。

  • But I think the overarching punchline in terms of how we're approaching it is to really do what's necessary to strengthen our competitive position with a healthy balance sheet, with new capabilities, with a talented team so that we can take advantage of growth opportunities coming out of this uncertain period over the course of the next 6 to 12 months.

    但我認為,就我們如何接近它而言,最重要的是真正做必要的事情來加強我們的競爭地位,擁有健康的資產負債表,擁有新的能力,擁有一支才華橫溢的團隊,這樣我們就可以利用即將到來的增長機會在接下來的 6 到 12 個月內擺脫這個不確定的時期。

  • Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

    Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

  • Kevin, we'll take 2 more questions.

    凱文,我們再回答 2 個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question comes from Dana Telsey of Telsey Group.

    下一個問題來自 Telsey Group 的 Dana Telsey。

  • Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

    Dana Lauren Telsey - CEO & Chief Research Officer

  • Can you expand on the magnitude of the digital returns, what you're seeing there and is that in store also? And just with the following up with the guidance adjustments, how are you adjusting your holiday plans, including marketing spend given the current environment?

    您能否擴展數字回報的幅度,您在那裡看到的以及是否也在商店中?隨著指導調整的跟進,您如何調整假期計劃,包括在當前環境下的營銷支出?

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • I'll start with the topic of returns and then hand it over to Jeff to talk about our holiday plans. So if you look at returns overall, returns are higher than last year, but actually lower than 2019. So for example, on the digital side, in the second quarter, we saw returns were up about 4 percentage points higher than last year, but still 2 percentage points lower than 2019.

    我將從退貨的話題開始,然後交給傑夫來談談我們的假期計劃。因此,如果您查看整體回報率,回報率高於去年,但實際上低於 2019 年。例如,在數字方面,在第二季度,我們看到回報率比去年高出約 4 個百分點,但仍比 2019 年低 2 個百分點。

  • So when you think about what's driving the higher returns, it's a lot of what you would actually expect. There has been a shift in the category mix towards apparel. So when you think about dressier, more tailored apparel categories, they tend to have a higher return rate than what we've seen in prior years with the demand around center core and home categories.

    因此,當您考慮是什麼推動了更高的回報時,這與您實際期望的很多。品類組合已經轉向服裝。因此,當您考慮更考究、更量身定制的服裝類別時,它們的退貨率往往比我們在前幾年看到的圍繞中心核心和家庭類別的需求更高。

  • And then if you compare it to kind of the trend that we've been seeing over the years, our digital penetration, for example, in the second quarter was 8 percentage points higher than 2019. And as you know, the digital channel tends to have a materially higher return rate than the stores channel.

    然後,如果您將其與我們多年來一直看到的趨勢進行比較,例如,我們在第二季度的數字滲透率比 2019 年高出 8 個百分點。如您所知,數字渠道往往退貨率遠高於實體店渠道。

  • So it's really a combination of mix, a combination of digital penetration that's really impacting how we think about returns this year versus last year, but we're continuing to see favorability relative to our pre-pandemic levels. And the category mix trends that I've just described, that's all reflected in our outlook for the balance of the year, but that's kind of how we will speak to the returns profile.

    因此,這實際上是一種混合的組合,一種數字滲透的組合,它真正影響了我們對今年與去年相比的回報的看法,但我們繼續看到相對於大流行前水平的有利程度。我剛剛描述的類別組合趨勢,都反映在我們對今年餘下時間的展望中,但這就是我們將如何談論回報概況。

  • Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

    Jeffrey Gennette - Chairman & CEO

  • And then, Dana, on the marketing, marketing is definitely going to be commensurate with the sales expectations. We had a slight downshift in overall volume for the back half of the year. So when you think about the marketing that is going against those sales, pretty consistent to what you've seen in the first half of the year.

    然後,Dana,在營銷方面,營銷肯定會與銷售預期相稱。今年下半年,我們的整體銷量略有下降。因此,當您考慮與這些銷售背道而馳的營銷時,與您在今年上半年看到的情況非常一致。

  • What I'd talk about is some of the differences in marketing is that really, our upper funnel tactics are really going to go to branding. So when you think about what we're doing with Own Your Style and being a gifting destination, that's what you're going to see on the upper funnel.

    我要談論的是營銷方面的一些差異,實際上,我們的漏斗上層策略將真正用於品牌推廣。因此,當您考慮我們正在使用 Own Your Style 做些什麼並成為送禮目的地時,這就是您將在漏斗上方看到的內容。

  • In the lower funnel tactics, a lot of digital tactics are going to really be about item price and more promotion and opportunities with that. So -- but we feel like we've got a good formula on that and certainly fitting within our SG&A rate. And it's definitely tied to our expectations on volume trends for holiday.

    在較低的漏斗策略中,許多數字策略將真正與商品價格以及更多的促銷和機會有關。所以 - 但我們覺得我們有一個很好的公式,並且肯定符合我們的 SG&A 費率。這絕對與我們對假期銷量趨勢的預期有關。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And today's final question comes from Carla Casella of JPMorgan.

    今天的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Carla Casella。

  • Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

    Carla Casella - MD & Senior Analyst

  • I'm wondering, just given your update for your cash flow and -- any change in your thoughts towards capital allocation and your leverage target?

    我想知道,剛剛給出了您對現金流的更新,以及您對資本配置和槓桿目標的想法是否有任何變化?

  • Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

    Adrian V. Mitchell - Executive VP & CFO

  • We remain committed to our leverage target. We talked about 2x or below. So that's an important thing for us. If I take a step back for a moment, Carla, just when you think about where we are from a cash standpoint, coming out of the second quarter, we're actually quite comfortable with our cash position.

    我們仍然致力於實現我們的槓桿目標。我們談到了 2x 或更低。所以這對我們來說很重要。如果我退後一步,卡拉,就在你從現金的角度考慮我們在第二季度之後的情況時,我們實際上對我們的現金狀況感到非常滿意。

  • Just to put it in context, we did not tap our ABL. Our overall liquidity doesn't comp a $3 billion asset-based credit facility that we did not have coming out of the second quarter. Inventory came in earlier than we expected because we were experiencing higher fill rates and the supply chain loosening. We managed through that. We're managing through softening sales in the back portion of the quarter. Again, we managed through that. We have no debt maturities on the horizon.

    只是為了把它放在上下文中,我們沒有挖掘我們的 ABL。我們的整體流動性不包括我們在第二季度沒有出現的 30 億美元的基於資產的信貸安排。庫存比我們預期的要早,因為我們正在經歷更高的填充率和供應鏈鬆動。我們做到了。我們正在通過本季度後期的銷售疲軟來進行管理。再一次,我們做到了。我們沒有即將到期的債務。

  • And so from our perspective, coming out of the second quarter, we really maintained our financial flexibility to respond to any potential changes that may be ahead of us. And the most important thing we want to be responsive to is the approach of holiday. That's an important quarter for us, an important period for us, but also having the capacity to respond to any kind of macroeconomic scenario that may be on the horizon. So from a cash standpoint, we'll continue to manage our cash efficiently and effectively.

    因此,從我們的角度來看,從第二季度開始,我們確實保持了財務靈活性,以應對可能擺在我們面前的任何潛在變化。我們想要響應的最重要的事情是假期的臨近。這對我們來說是一個重要的季度,對我們來說是一個重要的時期,但也有能力應對任何可能出現的宏觀經濟情景。因此,從現金的角度來看,我們將繼續有效地管理我們的現金。

  • From a capital allocation priority, we're continuing to invest in high-return initiatives within the business, return capital to shareholders. So we're being very consistent with what we've shared in prior quarters as well.

    從資本配置優先考慮,我們將繼續投資於業務內的高回報計劃,將資本返還給股東。因此,我們也與我們在前幾個季度分享的內容非常一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude the question-and-answer session for today's call. I'd like to hand the call back to Mike McGuire for any additional or closing remarks.

    這確實結束了今天電話會議的問答環節。我想將電話轉回給 Mike McGuire,以獲取任何補充或結束語。

  • Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

    Michael P. McGuire - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Kevin, and thanks, everyone, for joining us today and for your interest in Macy's, Inc. If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out to Michelle Cassiere or myself in Investor Relations. Remember to keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars, and have a great day.

    謝謝你,凱文,也謝謝大家今天加入我們,感謝你對梅西百貨公司的興趣。如果你有任何問題,請隨時與投資者關係部門的 Michelle Cassiere 或我本人聯繫。記住要腳踏實地,繼續伸手去摘星星,祝你有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that does conclude today's conference call. We thank you all for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

    這確實結束了今天的電話會議。我們感謝大家的參與,您現在可以斷開連接。