西南航空 (LUV) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 調整後 EPS $0.94,年增約 120%,大幅優於指引與市場共識;調整後營收年增 20.3%,創歷史新高,營運利潤率 6.7%,年增 3.3 個百分點
    • 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引下修至 $3.25-$4.25(原為至少 $4),反映油價上升,但仍維持年初預期區間,顯示營運韌性
    • Q2 業績與指引均優於同業,單位營收(RASM)年增 20.1%,遠超產業,盤後市場反應正面
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 多元化營收來源(新產品、行李費、OTA、聯名卡等)帶動單位營收創新高
      • 企業客戶營收年增 30%,連續創新高,顯示商務需求強勁回升
      • Rapid Rewards 會員年增 35%,聯名卡新戶年增 28%,顧客黏著度與參與度提升
      • 營運效率提升,成本控管嚴謹,CASM-X 僅年增 3.4%,低於指引下緣
    • 風險:
      • 油價波動與上升對獲利造成壓力,Q2 油料成本年增近 9 億美元
      • 2025 年新措施(如行李費)帶來高基期,Q3 RASM 年增率面臨比較基期壓力
      • 機隊汰換與資本支出時點不確定,可能影響自由現金流
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 調整後營收:年增 20.3%,創歷史新高,受惠於多元化營收與產品升級
    • 調整後 EPS:$0.94,年增約 120%,大幅優於市場預期
    • 單位營收(RASM):年增 20.1%,高於指引上緣
    • 企業客戶營收:年增 30%,連續創新高
    • Rapid Rewards 新會員:年增 35%,總會員近 1 億人,創新高
    • 聯名卡新戶:年增 28%,帶動聯名卡收入增長
    • CASM-X:年增 3.4%,低於指引下緣,展現成本控管力
    • 營運現金流:Q2 $5 億,年增 32%
    • 流動性:季末 $53 億,高於目標
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引 $3.25-$4.25(原為至少 $4)
    • Q3 單位營收(RASM)預估年增 17.5%-19.5%
    • Q3 CASM-X 預估年增 3.5%-4%,運能持平或小幅下滑
    • CapEx 指引維持或低於原先低端,受機隊汰換與交機時點影響
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: Q3 單位營收成長放緩,主要是哪些因素?未來成長動能如何?
      A: Q3 RASM 年增率放緩,主因 2025 年新措施(如行李費)帶來高基期,若調整基期,Q3 實際單位營收仍優於 Q2,需求與票價環境持續強勁。
    • Q: 2026 EPS 指引下修的主要假設?Q4 油價與成本展望?機隊汰換對財報影響?
      A: 油價假設以 7/17 forward curve 為基礎,Q4 沒有額外油價指引;成本控管持續見效,機隊汰換帶來耐久性資產處分利益,Q3 處分利益較高,Q4 與 Q1、Q2 相當。
    • Q: 聯名卡與會員增長動能?未來 co-brand 收入展望?
      A: 聯名卡新戶與會員增長強勁,帶動 co-brand 收入提升,未來將持續擴大產品組合與合作機會,預期隨產品成熟與會員活躍度提升,co-brand 收入將持續成長。
    • Q: Q2 營收 breakage 調整對 2026 財報有何影響?
      A: 本季 breakage 調整僅影響 2022-2025 年未用旅遊基金,與 2026 財報無關,2026 年財報為乾淨基期。
    • Q: Q4 運能(capacity)大幅成長的考量?2027 年運能展望?
      A: Q4 運能年增 4.5%,主要集中於既有優勢市場,確保每一架飛機都能帶來獲利,未來仍將維持運能紀律,2027 年全年運能尚未公布。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines second-quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Gary, and I'll be moderating today's call. Please note that this call is being recorded. A replay of today's call will be available in the Investor Relations section of southwest.com. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions.

    各位好,歡迎參加西南航空 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Gary,將主持今天的會議。請注意,本次會議將被錄音。今日會議的重播將於 southwest.com 的投資人關係專區提供。完成事先準備的發言後,我們將開放提問。

  • (Operator Instructions) At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Danielle Collins, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Danielle, please go ahead.

    (接線員指示) 現在,我想把電話交給投資人關係董事總經理 Danielle Collins。Danielle,請開始。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Southwest Airlines second-quarter 2026 earnings call. In just a moment, we will share our prepared remarks, after which we'll move into Q&A. Joining me today are Bob Jordan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Andrew Watterson, our Chief Operating Officer; Justin Jones, our Chief Commercial Officer; and Tom Doxey, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝。各位好,歡迎參加西南航空 2026 年第二季財報電話會議。稍後我們將分享事先準備的發言,之後進入問答環節。今天與我一同出席的有:總裁兼執行長 Bob Jordan;營運長 Andrew Watterson;商務長 Justin Jones;以及財務長 Tom Doxey。

  • Before we begin, a reminder that we will be making forward-looking statements, which are based on our current expectations of future performance, and our actual results could differ materially from expectations. Also, we will reference our non-GAAP results, which exclude special items that are called out and reconciled to GAAP results in our earnings release.

    在開始之前提醒各位,我們將發表前瞻性陳述,這些陳述係基於我們對未來表現的目前預期,而實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。此外,我們將提及非 GAAP 結果,其中排除特殊項目;這些項目已在我們的財報新聞稿中標示,並與 GAAP 結果進行調節。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Bob。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Danielle, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining our call today. Yesterday, we reported our second-quarter results, marking the first time all of our major initiatives were contributing throughout the entire quarter. The results put the earnings power of our business on full display and demonstrate the benefits of the transformation that we have executed.

    謝謝你,Danielle,各位早安。感謝各位今天加入我們的電話會議。昨天,我們公布了第二季業績,這也標誌著我們所有主要計畫首次在整個季度內皆有貢獻。這些結果充分展現了我們業務的獲利能力,並證明我們所推動轉型所帶來的效益。

  • Our business now benefits from a broader and more diversified set of revenue and commercial levers than at any point in our history. The results demonstrate that the transformation is working, with a 9% after-tax return on invested capital and adjusted operating margin of 6.7% or a 3.3 point improvement year over year despite nearly $900 million year-over-year increase in second-quarter fuel expense. We also generated nearly $2 billion in operating cash flow during the first half of the year despite record fuel expense.

    如今,我們的業務受益於比公司歷史上任何時點都更廣泛、更多元的營收與商業槓桿。結果顯示轉型正在奏效:稅後投入資本報酬率為 9%,調整後營業利益率為 6.7%,年增 3.3 個百分點,儘管第二季燃油費用較去年同期增加近 9 億美元。即使燃油費用創新高,我們在上半年仍創造了近 20 億美元的營運現金流。

  • We reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.94, up approximately 120% year over year and well above both our initial guidance and analyst consensus. Adjusted unit revenues increased 20.1% year over year to an all-time quarterly record, exceeding the high end of our prior guidance range, while adjusted operating revenues increased 20.3% on capacity growth of only 0.2%. Managed business revenues grew 30% year over year to a new all-time quarterly record surpassing the record established just one quarter ago.

    我們公布的調整後每股盈餘為 0.94 美元,年增約 120%,且明顯高於我們最初的指引與分析師一致預期。調整後單位營收年增 20.1%,創下歷來單季新高,並超越先前指引區間的上緣;同時,在運能僅成長 0.2% 的情況下,調整後營業收入年增 20.3%。管理型商務(managed business)營收年增 30%,再創歷來單季新高,並超越僅在一季前才剛創下的紀錄。

  • Customer response to our enhanced product offering is showing up in strong engagement results. Rapid Rewards new member enrollments increased 35% year over year and overall program size is a record with nearly 100 million members. Tier qualification activity also reached a record high in the quarter. Chase co-branded credit card account growth was also exceptionally strong with card acquisitions in the quarter up 28% year over year.

    客戶對我們強化後產品方案的回應,已反映在強勁的互動成效上。Rapid Rewards 新會員註冊年增 35%,整體計畫規模創新高,會員數接近 1 億人。會員等級資格(tier qualification)活動在本季也創下新高。Chase 聯名信用卡帳戶成長同樣格外強勁,本季新卡取得量年增 28%。

  • Cost discipline continued as well with CASM-X increasing just 3.4% year over year on near flat capacity, below the low end of our prior guidance and cost discipline remains broad-based across the company. With transformational initiatives now fully in place, our focus has shifted to optimization and unlocking the full potential of the business. Specifically, we are focused on optimizing the network, refining new products and pricing, growing managed business revenues and expanding co-brand opportunities.

    成本紀律也持續展現:在運能幾乎持平的情況下,CASM-X 僅年增 3.4%,低於先前指引的下緣,且成本控管在全公司範圍內皆有落實。隨著轉型計畫現已全面到位,我們的重心已轉向最佳化,並釋放業務的全部潛力。具體而言,我們聚焦於最佳化航網、精進新產品與定價、成長管理型商務營收,以及擴大聯名合作機會。

  • We have emerged as a stronger, more resilient and better position Southwest while sustaining a unique set of core strengths that remain firmly intact, the largest domestic network with the most nonstop flights and the #1 position in nearly half of the 50 largest US airports, operational efficiency, cost discipline, powerful brand loyalty and importantly, legendary service and hospitality delivered by our incredible people. That creates a differentiated position in the marketplace that no other airline can replicate. And that differentiation continues to show in the results.

    我們已蛻變為更強大、更具韌性且更具競爭力的西南航空,同時維持一套獨特且依然穩固的核心優勢:擁有最大的美國國內航網與最多的直飛航班、在美國 50 大機場中近半數位居第一、營運效率、成本紀律、強大的品牌忠誠度,以及最重要的—由我們卓越員工所提供的傳奇服務與待客之道。這在市場上形成了其他航空公司無法複製的差異化定位。而這種差異化也持續反映在業績表現上。

  • Southwest was named number one in customer satisfaction among economy passengers in the JD Power 2026 North America Airline Satisfaction Study, our fifth consecutive year at the top spot, following recognition by the Wall Street Journal as its best US Airline of 2025. These recognitions reinforce that our hospitality, reliability, operational execution and value remain powerful core competitive advantages.

    在 J.D. Power 2026 年北美航空滿意度研究中,西南航空獲評為經濟艙旅客客戶滿意度第一名,連續第五年名列榜首;此前《華爾街日報》也將我們評為 2025 年最佳美國航空公司。這些肯定再次證明,我們的待客之道、可靠性、營運執行力與價值,仍是強而有力的核心競爭優勢。

  • And we continue to evolve the product that we offer to our customers. Just a few weeks ago, our first Starlink equipped aircraft entered service, marking the beginning of a new era of in-flight connectivity at Southwest. In early July, we expanded our airline partner network to nine carriers with the addition of Air Premia. With the launch of Anchorage in May, we completed the rollout of service to all 5 previously announced new destinations, and we aren't stopping here. We will continue to drive enhancements that broaden our product offering and further deepen customer engagement.

    我們也持續進化提供給客戶的產品。就在幾週前,我們首架配備 Starlink 的飛機投入營運,標誌著西南航空機上連線服務新時代的開始。7 月初,隨著新增 Air Premia,我們的航空合作夥伴網路擴大至 9 家航空公司。隨著 5 月開航安克拉治(Anchorage),我們完成了先前宣布的 5 個新目的地的服務佈署,而我們不會就此止步。我們將持續推動各項強化措施,以擴大產品供給並進一步深化客戶互動。

  • Now, let me turn to our outlook. While fuel prices have remained volatile and elevated, industry recapture has been swift and pricing has remained sticky. Forward bookings are robust, and we are optimistic the strong demand and pricing environment will be sustained. Importantly, the revenue strength we are seeing is not solely a fuel recovery story. It also reflects the idiosyncratic benefits of our own initiatives, which are improving revenue quality, strengthening customer acquisition and engagement, broadening the earnings power of the business and creating earnings durability regardless of the macro environment.

    接下來談談我們的展望。雖然燃油價格仍然波動且維持在高檔,但產業的回補(recapture)速度很快,票價也維持黏著性。前瞻訂位表現強勁,我們對強勁需求與定價環境可望延續感到樂觀。重要的是,我們看到的營收強勁並不僅僅是燃油回補的故事。這也反映了我們自身計畫所帶來的特有效益:提升營收品質、強化客戶獲取與互動、擴大業務的獲利能力,並在不論總體環境如何的情況下,打造更具持久性的獲利表現。

  • For full-year 2026, we now expect adjusted earnings per share of $3.25 to $4.25. This updated range replaces our prior expectation of at least $4, reflects the forward fuel curve as of July 17 and assumes the current fare environment and demand trends remain broadly intact. Even with an estimated year-to-date fuel headwind of approximately $1.33 per share, Southwest remains positioned to generate earnings that are broadly in line with our guidance at the beginning of the year and represent significant earnings growth and margin expansion, underscoring the resiliency of our business model.

    針對 2026 全年,我們目前預期調整後每股盈餘為 3.25 至 4.25 美元。此更新區間取代先前「至少 4 美元」的預期,反映截至 7 月 17 日的遠期燃油曲線,並假設目前票價環境與需求趨勢大致維持不變。即使在年初至今估計每股約 1.33 美元的燃油逆風下,西南航空仍有望創造與年初指引大致一致的獲利,並實現顯著的獲利成長與利潤率擴張,凸顯我們商業模式的韌性。

  • And before I close, I want to recognize our employees. None of what we have accomplished would have been possible without the dedication, resilience and commitment of our people, and we are proud to have accrued over $100 million year-to-date in profit sharing for our employees. Profit sharing reflects our long-standing belief that when the company succeeds, our people should share in that success. To our employees across the Southwest system, thank you for everything that you do for our customers and for one another.

    在結束之前,我想向我們的員工致意。若沒有同仁的投入、韌性與承諾,我們不可能達成這些成果;我們也很自豪年初至今已為員工累計超過 1 億美元的盈餘分享。盈餘分享反映了我們長久以來的信念:當公司成功時,我們的同仁也應共享成功果實。致西南航空體系內的所有同仁,感謝你們為我們的客戶以及彼此所做的一切。

  • We set out to transform the company. And today, you can see the proof in the earnings. We have built a more durable and diversified business with greater earnings power and our focus is now on unlocking Southwest's full potential, further expanding margins and creating additional long-term value for our customers, our employees and our shareholders.

    我們著手推動公司轉型。而今天,你可以從獲利表現中看到證明。我們已建立起更具韌性且更多元化的業務,具備更強的獲利能力;我們目前的重點是釋放西南航空的全部潛力,進一步擴大利潤率,並為我們的客戶、員工與股東創造更多長期價值。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Andrew.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Andrew。

  • Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

    Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thank you, Bob. As Southwest enters the next phase of evolution, our focus is increasingly on optimization. Across the operation, we are working to improve asset utilization, strengthen operational execution and drive greater efficiency while maintaining the reliability and hospitality that customers expect from Southwest. Operational excellence remains a key competitive advantage for our company and supports both the customer experience and the long-term profitability of the business.

    謝謝你,Bob。隨著西南航空進入下一個演進階段,我們的重點愈來愈放在最佳化。在整體營運上,我們正致力於提升資產使用效率、強化營運執行力並推動更高效率,同時維持客戶對西南航空所期待的可靠性與款待服務。營運卓越仍是公司關鍵的競爭優勢,並同時支撐客戶體驗與業務的長期獲利能力。

  • During the second quarter, we ranked first among large domestic carriers in completion factor and improved mishandled baggage performance year over year, even with higher volumes of gate checked bags. Trip Net Promoter Score also improved throughout the quarter, reinforcing that our operational execution and enhanced product offerings are resonating with customers. We also maintained the lowest customer complaint rate among the major US airlines. Our priorities remain straightforward: operate safely, serve our customers reliably and continue to improve the efficiency and productivity of the operation.

    在第二季,我們在大型國內航空公司中於航班完成率排名第一,且即使登機口託運行李量增加,行李錯運表現仍較去年同期改善。旅程淨推薦值(Trip Net Promoter Score)也在整個季度持續提升,進一步印證我們的營運執行與強化後的產品供給正獲得客戶共鳴。我們也維持美國主要航空公司中最低的客訴率。我們的優先事項依然明確:安全營運、可靠服務客戶,並持續提升營運效率與生產力。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Justin.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Justin。

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Andrew. I'm excited to join today's call in my new role as Chief Commercial Officer, and I look forward to engaging with many of you in the months ahead. Our focus is clear. Use Southwest's unique network, powerful brand, loyal customer base and expanded product offerings to improve revenue quality, strengthen returns and create durable earnings growth. We are not managing to any one metric. Our focus is on building a more productive commercial business, one that balances unit revenue growth, disciplined capacity, network profitability and long-term customer engagement.

    謝謝你,Andrew。我很高興以新任首席商務長的身分參與今天的電話會議,也期待在未來幾個月與各位有更多交流。我們的重點很清楚。運用西南航空獨特的航網、強大的品牌、忠誠的客戶基礎以及擴充的產品供給,來提升營收品質、強化報酬並創造更具韌性的獲利成長。我們不會只以單一指標來管理。我們的重點是打造更具生產力的商務業務,在單位營收成長、審慎的運能、航網獲利能力與長期客戶互動之間取得平衡。

  • As Bob noted, second-quarter adjusted RASM increased 20.1% year over year, well above the high end of our prior guidance range of 16.5% to 18.5%. Importantly, this performance was broad-based, reflecting contributions from our expanded product offerings, stack fees, online travel agencies, Chase-related revenue and continued strength in our base business. Adjusted operating revenue reached a record $8.7 billion, the highest quarterly revenue in Southwest history, demonstrating the earnings power of a broader and more diversified revenue platform.

    如 Bob 所提,第二季調整後 RASM 年增 20.1%,明顯高於我們先前指引區間 16.5% 至 18.5% 的上緣。重要的是,這項表現具有廣泛性,反映我們擴充的產品供給、疊加費用(stack fees)、線上旅行社、Chase 相關收入,以及核心業務持續強勁等多方面的貢獻。調整後營業收入達到創紀錄的 87 億美元,為西南航空史上最高單季營收,展現更廣泛且更多元化營收平台的獲利能力。

  • Looking ahead, we expect third quarter unit revenue growth of 17.5% to 19.5% year over year with a strong exit rate from Q2. We continue to see healthy demand, a constructive pricing environment and further opportunity to refine our commercial capabilities. Our third quarter unit revenue outlook includes a year-over-year headwind from lapping the 2025 implementation of bag fees and other initiatives.

    展望未來,我們預期第三季單位營收年增 17.5% 至 19.5%,並延續第二季強勁的收尾動能。我們持續看到健康的需求、具建設性的定價環境,以及進一步精進商務能力的機會。我們的第三季單位營收展望包含一項年比不利因素,來自於對比 2025 年實施的行李費與其他措施所形成的基期效應。

  • The network remains one of Southwest's greatest competitive advantages, and we will continue using it more efficiently to maximize returns and support long-term profitable growth. As we move through the remainder of the year, my focus will be on further unlocking the potential of our commercial initiatives, deepening customer engagement and ensuring that Southwest commercial strategy continues to support sustainable margin expansion and long-term shareholder value.

    航網仍是西南航空最重要的競爭優勢之一,我們將持續更有效率地運用航網,以最大化報酬並支持長期的獲利成長。在今年剩餘時間,我的重點將放在進一步釋放商務措施的潛力、深化客戶互動,並確保西南航空的商務策略持續支持可持續的利潤率擴張與長期股東價值。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Tom.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Tom。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Justin, and welcome to the call. I'm incredibly proud of our team for the continued focus on spending smartly as we've invested in our product, customers, operations and employees while expanding margins year over year despite significantly higher fuel costs in the quarter. We generated quarterly operating cash flow of $0.5 billion, more than 32% higher year over year, and ended the quarter with liquidity of $5.3 billion, above our target of approximately $4.5 billion.

    謝謝你,Justin,也歡迎加入今天的電話會議。我為我們的團隊感到非常自豪;在投資於產品、客戶、營運與員工的同時,仍持續專注於聰明地支出,並且儘管本季燃油成本顯著上升,利潤率仍較去年同期擴大。我們本季創造 5 億美元的營運現金流,年增超過 32%;季度末流動性為 53 億美元,高於我們約 45 億美元的目標水準。

  • Our gross leverage ratio was 2.1x, within our stated range of 1 to 2.5x and improved from the 2.4x at year-end 2025 despite macro volatility. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains a key differentiator, providing meaningful financial flexibility. Fuel prices averaged $3.92 per gallon during the quarter. Our fuel procurement team effectively managed through dynamic market conditions and took actions such as moving lower-priced Gulf Coast products to the West Coast to mitigate higher fuel costs in that part of our network.

    我們的總槓桿比率為 2.1 倍,落在我們所述的 1 至 2.5 倍區間內,且儘管宏觀環境波動,仍較 2025 年底的 2.4 倍改善。我們的投資級資產負債表仍是關鍵差異化因素,提供實質的財務彈性。本季燃油價格平均為每加侖 3.92 美元。我們的燃油採購團隊有效因應動態市場狀況,並採取行動,例如將墨西哥灣沿岸較低價格的產品調往西岸,以緩解該航網區域較高的燃油成本。

  • Looking ahead, we expect third quarter CASM-X to increase 3.5% to 4% year-over-year on capacity of flat to down 1%. Consistent with Bob's comments, we continue to see a path toward long-term margin expansion and earnings growth, supported by disciplined execution, improving unit revenues and contributions from our initiatives. Combined with a strong balance sheet and substantial liquidity, we believe Southwest is well positioned to create sustainable long-term value for our shareholders.

    展望未來,我們預期第三季 CASM-X 年增 3.5% 至 4%,在運能持平至下降 1% 的情況下。與 Bob 的評論一致,我們持續看到通往長期利潤率擴張與獲利成長的路徑,並由嚴謹的執行、改善的單位營收以及各項措施的貢獻所支撐。結合強健的資產負債表與充足的流動性,我們相信西南航空已具備良好條件,為股東創造可持續的長期價值。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to Danielle for Q&A.

    接下來,我把時間交回 Danielle 進行問答。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Tom. This now concludes our prepared remarks. We'll open the line for analyst questions. To help us manage time efficiently, please ask your one or two questions back-to-back at the outset.

    謝謝你,Tom。我們的事先準備發言到此結束。接下來開放分析師提問。為了協助我們有效管理時間,請在一開始連續提出一到兩個問題。

  • All right, operator, we are ready for your first question.

    好的,接線員,我們準備好進行第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    (接線員指示)Conor Cunningham,Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • I was hoping to start with the comp issue that you raised on unit revenue a little bit. And just maybe you could potentially size that impact in 3Q, just so we can understand a little bit more. Just I think what people are trying to get at is just the framing of how it progresses through the first half of 2027. Just I would have thought that there would have been more maturation period and more uplift from initiatives to kind of offset just the timing of it.

    我想先從你們稍早提到的單位營收比較基期(comp)問題談起。也許你們可以量化一下第三季的影響,讓我們能更清楚理解。我想大家試圖掌握的是,它在 2027 年上半年如何推進的框架。我原本以為會有更長的成熟期,以及各項措施帶來更多提振,以在某種程度上抵消時間點的影響。

  • And then specifically to Justin, again, congrats on the new role. Just trying to understand your long-term growth, how you view long-term growth at Southwest and just network development in general. Should we be reading anything to the ramp in supply in the fourth quarter in 1Q '27 at all? Just like high level thoughts.

    另外特別想問 Justin,再次恭喜你升任新職。我想了解你對西南航空長期成長的看法,以及整體航網發展的觀點。我們是否應該從第四季以及 2027 年第一季運能供給的爬升中解讀出任何訊息?就是一些高層次的想法。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • You bet, Conor. Thanks for the question. On the first, yes, I think to just start and just maybe zoom out, back up with the fact that our Q2 unit revenue, I mean, was up 20%. I mean, an extraordinary number. I mean, just far ahead of the rest of the industry, the transformation really kicked in and performed and showed up in the results.

    當然可以,Conor。謝謝你的提問。先談第一點,是的,我想先從更宏觀的角度切入,回到我們第二季單位營收年增 20% 這個事實。這是一個非常驚人的數字。明顯領先產業其他同業;轉型確實啟動、發揮效果,並反映在結果上。

  • The Q3 RASM guide is pretty simple to me. It includes the headwind from the initiatives that we put in place about a year ago in 2025, one of which was bag fees. Bag fees alone is about $1 billion a year. So we're just starting off at a much higher base. So if you adjust the guide for lapping those initiatives in Q3, our unit revenue guide would be well ahead of the unit revenues that we posted in the second quarter.

    對我而言,第三季 RASM 指引很簡單。其中包含我們在 2025 年、約一年前推出的措施所帶來的逆風效應,其中之一就是行李費。單是行李費一年約 10 億美元。因此我們是從更高的基期開始。所以如果把第三季與這些措施的基期效應調整掉,我們的單位營收指引將會明顯高於我們在第二季所公布的單位營收水準。

  • And either way, we saw strong demand, really strong demand in revenues across the second quarter and all of that robust strength is fully in place and continuing here in the third quarter.

    無論哪種情況,我們都看到強勁的需求,第二季的營收需求非常強勁,而這股強韌的動能在第三季也完全延續並持續中。

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • I was just going to address the long-term growth. It's Justin Jones, thanks for having me on the call. As Bob has talked about in his prepared remarks, we're going to continue to show capacity discipline while we're focusing on building durable earnings. And so you can expect some modest growth from us moving forward. You see a little bit of that in the fourth quarter, you see some of that in 2027.

    我想回應一下長期成長。我是 Justin Jones,謝謝讓我參與這通電話會議。如同 Bob 在事先準備的談話中提到的,我們會在專注於打造可持續的獲利能力之際,持續維持運能紀律。因此,未來你可以預期我們會有一些溫和的成長。你會在第四季看到一點,也會在 2027 年看到一些。

  • We're well below our peers there.

    我們在那方面遠低於同業。

  • But what my focus is going to be is on strengthening our points of strength that we have in the network. And you're going to see that with our capacity growth. But you're also going to see that with us moving and shifting capacity around, which you can already see. So you'll see capacity growth in our points of strength and making them more durable long term. And that will continue to be the focus as long as I'm in this role.

    但我的重點會放在強化我們在航網中既有的優勢據點。你會從我們的運能成長看到這一點。同時你也會看到我們在不同航點之間移動與調整運能配置,這其實你現在已經看得到。因此,你會看到我們在優勢據點增加運能,並讓這些優勢在長期更具持久性。只要我還在這個職位上,這都會是持續的重點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

    Andrew Didora,美國銀行。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • Maybe Tom, you're trailing in on the new 2026 EPS outlook. Can you help us with some of the inputs that underpin that, particularly kind of fuel and CASM in 4Q? And on that note, yes, in terms of 4Q CASM, I know you're retiring with 37 aircraft in the back half versus 23 in the first half. I would assume you have more plane sales in the back half than what you've done to date. Any color that you can provide on how to think about that gain on sale piece in 3Q and 4Q? And anything that you booked in the second quarter would be helpful.

    Tom,也許你可以進一步說明新的 2026 年 EPS 展望。你能否協助我們了解支撐該展望的一些假設輸入,特別是第四季的燃油與 CASM?另外,談到第四季 CASM,我知道你們下半年要退役 37 架飛機,相較上半年是 23 架。我猜想你們下半年的飛機出售會比目前為止更多。你能否提供一些說明,讓我們理解第三季與第四季的出售收益(gain on sale)該如何看待?以及你們在第二季入帳的任何相關內容也會很有幫助。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Andrew. As far as fuel, we don't guide fuel. I think this is a bit of a nuance here, but we give you a fuel estimate based on a certain day, and we say it's the forward curve as of that day. We used July 17 here. We give you an estimate for the third quarter. You can run that out for the fourth quarter based on that information, even though we're not guiding it for 4Q. So that's fuel.

    好的。謝謝你,Andrew。就燃油而言,我們不提供燃油指引。這裡有個細微差別:我們會以某一天為基準提供燃油估計,並說明那是截至該日的遠期曲線。這次我們使用的是 7 月 17 日。我們提供第三季的估計。即使我們不對第四季提供指引,你也可以根據這些資訊把估計延伸到第四季。以上是燃油部分。

  • For the nonfuel side of things, I continue to be really, really pleased with the way that the management team broadly is managing costs. We're seeing cost savings happening everywhere in the business to the tune of literally hundreds of millions of dollars of incremental savings as we're working our way through the year.

    至於非燃油成本方面,我仍然對管理團隊整體的成本控管方式感到非常、非常滿意。我們看到整個業務各處都在發生節省成本的成果;隨著我們推進今年的進度,增量節省金額確實達到數億美元的規模。

  • To your question on fleet transactions in particular, this is something that I think is a unique strength. I think we -- I think when it comes to divesting of retiring assets, we are one of the best in the world of doing this. The team does a fantastic job. And we've got north of 450 NGs that will be retiring for years and years to come well into the next decade. So this is -- it may be a little lumpy by quarter, but this is something that will be durable and with us continually.

    針對你特別問到的機隊交易,我認為這是一項獨特的優勢。我認為——在處分退役資產方面,我們是全球做得最好的公司之一。團隊做得非常出色。而且我們有超過 450 架 NG 機型會在未來多年持續退役,一路延伸到下一個十年。因此——這可能在季度之間會有些波動,但這會是一項可持續、並且會長期伴隨我們的項目。

  • And as far as the timing of some of that, I think 3Q is going to be a little bit elevated versus first quarter and second quarter, and then fourth quarter probably looks a lot like the first quarter and second quarter.

    至於其中一些交易的時點,我認為第三季相較第一季與第二季會略為偏高,而第四季大概會更像第一季與第二季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    Mike Linenberg,德意志銀行。

  • Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst

    Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst

  • Two questions here. I guess to Andrew first, really well done on the completion factor, obviously, credit to you for running a good operation on one hand. On the other hand, we have seen the delays go up pretty dramatically even on what looks like blue sky days. And I'm just curious, how much of that is just a function of you reducing the turn times, which I know has been a stated objective, combined with the fact that you're also trying to increase connectivity?

    我有兩個問題。我想先問 Andrew,完成率(completion factor)做得非常好,顯然一方面要歸功於你把營運管理得很好。但另一方面,我們也看到即使在看起來天氣很好的日子,延誤也相當明顯地上升。我很好奇,其中有多少只是因為你們縮短了轉場時間(turn times,我知道這一直是既定目標),再加上你們也在嘗試提高轉機連結性(connectivity)所造成的?

  • And then my second question to Tom, and I'll throw Danielle in there as well. Kudos to reintroducing ROIC in the release, certainly important to us and investors. And I know management also gets compensated tied to ROIC measures. So nice to see that come back. But the fact is, can you detail, what was the gain in the quarter on sales for aircraft?

    第二個問題給 Tom,我也把 Danielle 一起算進來。你們在新聞稿中重新引入 ROIC,做得很好,這對我們和投資人當然很重要。我也知道管理層的薪酬與 ROIC 指標掛鉤。所以很高興看到它回來。但事實是,你們能否說明本季飛機出售的收益是多少?

  • And when you talk about CapEx, the guide for CapEx coming in at or below the low end because it is net. Is that a function of just a pickup in aircraft sales? Is it delayed deliveries from Boeing? What's driving that?

    另外,談到資本支出(CapEx),你們指引顯示 CapEx 會落在區間低端或更低,因為這是淨額口徑。這是因為飛機出售增加所致嗎?是波音交付延遲嗎?是什麼在驅動這個結果?

  • Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

    Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

  • Thanks, Mike. It's Andrew to start with. I appreciate the confidence in the completion factor. If we take a step back, the Wall Street Journal is a great measure of the operating quality in airline, seven measures on that. We won it last year. We're tracking to win that again this year. If you look at those measures, some of them we've improved upon this year.

    謝謝你,Mike。我先由 Andrew 回答。感謝你對完成率的肯定。如果我們退一步看,《華爾街日報》是衡量航空公司營運品質的一個很好的指標,它有七項衡量標準。我們去年拿到第一名。今年我們也正朝著再次拿第一名的方向前進。如果你看那些指標,其中有些我們今年還有所改善。

  • But one that we have come down on is OTP, on time performance. And I kind of divide those into two categories. Large-scale events, which is like the weather you had in the Northeast earlier this week, when we had Texas rains and storms last week and Orlando a week before. And those situations, we continue to outperform our peers. You look at the geography that happens with all the big carriers.

    但有一項我們確實下滑了,就是 OTP(準點率)。我大致把它分成兩類。第一類是大型事件,例如本週稍早東北部的天氣、上週德州的降雨與風暴,以及再前一週的奧蘭多。在這些情況下,我們仍然持續優於同業。你看看所有大型航空公司的地理分布所面臨的狀況。

  • We have equivalent of better OTP and much better completion rate. And so I'm very proud of our control center, our frontline people, they make really good decisions in those moments and very good execution.

    我們的 OTP 相當或更好,而完成率則好得多。因此我對我們的控制中心與第一線同仁感到非常自豪;他們在那些時刻能做出非常好的決策,執行也非常到位。

  • And then you have this what I call small-scale ventures, the day-to-day. And we've seen that as we've rolled out our new product, we knew that we'd have changes. We organized our management technology teams to kind of continually update that post the rollout January 27, and we see consumers react positively, both the satisfaction scores have really inflected strongly as well as consumer behavior and choice. You see that in the RASM results.

    第二類是我所說的小型事件,也就是日常狀況。我們在推出新產品的過程中看到這些情況;我們知道會有變動。自 1 月 27 日上線後,我們也組織了管理與技術團隊持續更新;我們看到消費者反應正面,無論是滿意度分數都出現明顯上升,或是消費者行為與選擇也有變化。你可以在 RASM 的結果中看到。

  • What that leaves us is in the last 10 minutes of the turn when we have high load factors, and those high load factor volumes, we see that we don't turn as fast. And so we have a lot of smaller delays that don't drive consumer dissatisfaction per se, but it's something we need to clean up. So we've focused our ground operations team on how they can reengineer the last 10 minutes now that we've pretty much stabilized the changes to our boarding product so we can scrape that back and have that OTP number be much more flattering as we go forward.

    這讓我們面臨的是:在轉場最後 10 分鐘、且載客率很高的情況下,因為高載客率帶來的客流量,我們的轉場速度沒有那麼快。因此我們出現了很多小型延誤;這些延誤本身不一定會造成消費者不滿,但這是我們需要改善的地方。所以在我們基本上已經穩定住登機產品的變更之後,我們把重點放在地面作業團隊,思考如何重新設計最後 10 分鐘的流程,把時間追回來,讓未來的 OTP 數字更好看。

  • We already see benefits here in July, and there's some schedule changes that come in, in October, but mostly it will be about this process optimization that we'll focus on throughout the next couple of months. We think that will do the trick by the time we get to the next high-volume period on the holidays.

    我們在7月這裡已經看到效益,10月也會有一些班表調整上線,但接下來幾個月我們主要會聚焦在這項流程最佳化。我們認為,等到假期下一個高運量期間到來時,這應該就能發揮效果。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And, Mike, on your ROIC question, we like that metric a lot as well. And saw in your note from yesterday, the reference to ROIC and your calculation of weighted average cost of capital, it's an important milestone for us as we have that ROIC moving beyond the weighted cost of capital, that's an important metric.

    另外,Mike,關於你問的ROIC,我們也非常喜歡這個指標。我也看到你昨天的備註中提到ROIC,以及你對加權平均資本成本(WACC)的計算;對我們而言,當ROIC提升並超過加權資本成本時,這是一個重要的里程碑,也是關鍵指標。

  • As far as the gains on sales of aircraft, we actually, in our [queue,] which will come out later today, are going to provide a bit more detail. We thought that would be helpful as we've had some questions during the quarter on the quantum of that and what that looks like. So you'll see a little bit more detail, and hopefully, that's helpful to you all. It's worth probably just north of maybe 1 point or so of CASM-X or so in the quarter. And again, we think that, that's something really durable that we have that will continue with us for years and years to come.

    至於出售飛機的處分利益,我們其實會在我們的[queue,](稍晚今天會發布)中提供更多細節。我們認為這會很有幫助,因為本季期間我們收到一些問題,想了解其金額規模以及呈現方式。所以你們會看到更多細節,希望能對各位有所幫助。就本季而言,它大概相當於CASM-X約略1個百分點出頭的影響。再次強調,我們認為這是一項非常具持久性的因素,未來多年都會持續伴隨我們。

  • As you think about gains on sales, that really works in tandem with depreciation expense and with maintenance expense. Of course, the more or less you depreciate, that changes your book value. And then as you spend on maintenance, especially on used assets, that brings a lot of economic value into those assets. Of course, we generally expense that as it comes through. And so that can be something that can result in some gains there as well. So you see a bit of that coming through.

    當你思考出售處分利益時,它其實會與折舊費用以及維修費用相互搭配。當然,你折舊提列多或少,會改變你的帳面價值。而當你投入維修支出,特別是針對二手資產時,會為這些資產帶來大量的經濟價值。當然,我們通常會在發生時就將其費用化。因此,這也可能會帶來一些處分利益。所以你會看到其中一部分反映出來。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    Savi Syth,Raymond James。

  • Savanthi Syth - Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Analyst

  • Just maybe to follow up on kind of Justin's response earlier just on where the growth is focused on. Are there kind of any common themes in where that capacity growth is happening, especially as you roll out the new schedules other than just maybe where there are kind of high-margin opportunities?

    我想延續一下Justin先前的回覆,關於成長主要聚焦在哪裡。在你們推出新班表時,除了可能是高毛利機會之外,這些運能成長發生的地方是否有一些共同主題?

  • And then for the second question, just breakage accounting changes always a bit noisy. But it looked like the adjustment you took this quarter was related to kind of the forward credits, which I think you stopped issuing May of last year. Just curious if there were any implications from the change in assumption around the forward credits to how you're issuing credits today, which I think expires in like 6 to 12 months, and that margin contribution you had expected from that change?

    第二個問題,未使用(breakage)會計的變動一向比較雜訊。但看起來你們本季做的調整與「forward credits」有關,而我記得你們在去年5月就停止發放這類抵用額。想請教的是,對forward credits假設的變更,是否會對你們目前發放的抵用額(我理解大概在6到12個月到期)造成任何影響,以及你們原先預期該變更帶來的毛利貢獻是否有變?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Savi, it's Bob. Let me take the second one, and then Justin will obviously take the first. And there's been some focus on the breakage adjustment. I think I would try to simplify it. It's a small change, I think, 3-point change in the estimate on a large pool of unused travel funds.

    Savi,我是Bob。我先回答第二個,然後Justin顯然會回答第一個。外界確實對這個breakage調整有一些關注。我想我會試著把它簡化。這是一個小幅變動,我認為是在一大池未使用旅遊基金上的估計值變更3個百分點。

  • They do relate to 2022 to 2025 when we had the policy of never expiring. So that was new to us and just had to learn about the trends. And then the trends changed again as we made significant policy changes mid last year related to funds expiration.

    它們確實與2022到2025年有關,當時我們的政策是永不到期。這對我們來說是新的,因此必須學習相關趨勢。而在我們於去年年中針對資金到期做出重大政策變更後,趨勢又再次改變。

  • So there was a lot of moving parts here. I think the biggest thing is basic, which is none of this, the breakage that was booked or the adjustment related to 2026, 2026 is clean. I think that's the most important thing. And then as we go forward, yes, I think any learnings in the trend, particularly from the policy changes last year, we'll factor those into breakage on new pools of travel funds. But again, I think the main thing is this was new. We changed the policy. And again, main point, it does not relate in any way to 2026 financials.

    所以這裡有很多變動因素。我認為最重要、最基本的一點是:這些已入帳的breakage或與之相關的調整都不涉及2026年;2026年是乾淨的。我認為這是最重要的。而往後看,是的,我們會把趨勢上的任何學習,特別是來自去年政策變更的影響,納入對新一批旅遊基金池的breakage估計。但再次強調,重點是這對我們而言是新的。我們改了政策。再重申一次重點:它與2026年的財務完全無關。

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Savi, just following up on the growth, so you asked about are there any common themes? And I'd say Southwest is in a position that no other airline is. We have a market-leading position in more cities in the top 50 US locations in the US than any other airline. And so the theme that you're going to see is us building on these points of strength.

    Savi,接著談成長,你問是否有任何共同主題?我會說,西南航空所處的位置是其他航空公司沒有的。在美國前50大地點中的更多城市,我們擁有市場領先地位,勝過任何其他航空公司。因此,你將看到的主題是:我們會在這些優勢據點上持續加碼。

  • And the reason we're focused on those is because we're focused on customer loyalty and building diverse revenue streams. And our network changes are going to go exactly along with that theme. And the objective there is to build long-term predictable earnings that we can count on for years to come. So when you look at our capacity changes, that's where the focus will be.

    我們之所以聚焦在這些地方,是因為我們專注於客戶忠誠度,並建立多元的營收來源。而我們的航網調整將完全沿著這個主題推進。其目標是建立長期、可預測的獲利能力,讓我們在未來多年都能依靠。所以當你看我們的運能變化時,重點就會在這裡。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

    Jamie Baker,JPMorgan。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • Yeah, good morning. First one, so Justin, just a question on corporate recovery. In terms of revenue associated with seating initiatives, as business travelers continue to return to the network, how do their purchase patterns compare to those of consumers? The reason I'm asking is that it's still not clear to me what percentage of businesses reimburse corporate flyers for those expenses. JPMorgan does, for example, but another analyst on today's call shared that their firm does not. I'm just trying to figure out how much of a bump the new initiatives are driving as part of the overall corporate demand backdrop and whether it's different from consumer behavior.

    是的,早安。第一個,Justin,想問一下企業客回流的問題。就與座位相關的營收措施而言,隨著商務旅客持續回到航網,他們的購買模式與一般消費者相比如何?我之所以這麼問,是因為我仍不清楚有多少企業會報銷公司旅客的這些費用。例如JPMorgan會報銷,但今天電話會議上另一位分析師分享他們公司不會。我想釐清的是:在整體企業需求背景下,這些新措施帶來的增量有多大,以及它是否與消費者行為不同。

  • And then for Tom, sorry to come in with a modeling question, but the implication on fourth quarter RASM is pretty sizable and a big number despite lapping last year's initiatives, there's also some capacity growth to overcome. I can't say that it's unachievable. I guess my question is whether my math is wrong, but if it's directionally correct, it seems like you are building even more demand resilience into your guide than just sort of flat -- well, I mean, the currently strong trend. So I wanted to give you an opportunity to push back on that.

    第二個給Tom,抱歉我用建模問題切入,但第四季RASM的指引含意相當可觀,是個很大的數字,儘管去年同期也有相關措施的比較基期,另外還有一些運能成長需要消化。我不能說這不可能達成。我想問的是:是不是我算錯了;但如果方向上沒錯,看起來你們在指引中納入了比「大致持平」——我是說,相對於目前強勁趨勢——還要更高的需求韌性。所以我想給你一個機會對此提出不同看法。

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, just following up on the corporate recovery, Bob talked a little bit about our corporate revenue being up 30% on a year-over-year basis. And you obviously know what our total revenue is up. And so that difference there probably explains some of that. Obviously, our corporate customers are more likely to book away from the basic economy fares, and that's going to be true for anybody out there. So the gap between that 30% growth and the rest of the revenue is probably how you would think about that.

    是的,延續企業客回流的問題,Bob稍早提到我們的企業營收年增30%。而你也清楚我們的總營收成長幅度。因此,兩者之間的差異大概就能解釋其中一部分。很明顯地,我們的企業客戶更可能避開基本經濟艙票價來訂票,這對任何業者都一樣。所以,你可以把那30%的成長與其餘營收之間的差距,視為你應該如何理解這件事的方式。

  • But overall, we're super impressed with the adoption of our new products by our corporate customers, not only are we seeing substantial fair growth on a year-over-year basis, but nominal load factor points and our total mix of O&Ds is all up. And so every metric we're looking at is looking good there.

    但整體而言,我們對企業客戶採用我們新產品的情況感到非常振奮;我們不僅看到年對年相當可觀的公平成長,而且名目載客率(load factor)點數以及我們整體 O&D 組合也都全面上升。因此,我們所觀察的每一項指標在那裡看起來都很不錯。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And, Jamie, on your modeling question, of course, the guidance that we're providing is third quarter guidance when it comes to the unit metrics. We've given the full year guide for EPS, which, by the way, putting a guide out that within that guide includes the $4 that we guided at the beginning of the year, I think, is a tremendous accomplishment here and just zooming out a little bit.

    另外,Jamie,關於你提到的建模問題,當然,我們在單位指標方面所提供的是第三季的指引。我們已提供全年 EPS 指引;順帶一提,在這份指引中納入我們年初所給出的 4 美元指引,我認為這是一項非常了不起的成果,稍微把視角拉遠一點來看。

  • We're comfortable -- as you think about kind of the two big parts of the rest of the year, you've got the cost side, which I think we feel we have good visibility to the non-fuel cost side of the business between now and the end of the year. And so that comes through into the full-year guide.

    我們感到有把握——當你思考今年剩餘時間的兩大部分時,一個是成本端;我想我們對從現在到年底的業務非燃油成本端具有良好的能見度。因此,這也反映在全年指引之中。

  • And then on the revenue side, without giving any sort of guidance around the fourth quarter unit revenues, I don't think that we're making any assumptions that show that escalating unit revenue into the fourth quarter. Really, the way I would see that is it's an assumption that we are comfortable with for revenue in the last three months of the year.

    至於營收端,在不提供任何關於第四季單位營收指引的前提下,我不認為我們做了任何假設會顯示單位營收在第四季會加速上升。真正的看法是:這是一個我們對今年最後三個月營收感到安心、可以接受的假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    Duane Pfennigwerth,Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • Nice job to the team on the relative margin progress. I just wanted to ask you longer term how you're thinking about free cash flow conversion and the underlying drivers. Is free cash flow going to be simply a function of continued margin progress in earnings expansion? Or are there other levers that could drive a higher conversion even on, say, maybe a flattish earnings outlook into 2027? Not saying that's what you're calling for, but hypothetically, on a flattish earnings outlook, would we see improved free cash flow conversion?

    團隊在相對利潤率的進展上做得很好。我想請教你們長期而言如何看待自由現金流轉換率(free cash flow conversion)及其背後的驅動因素。自由現金流是否會單純是持續利潤率改善、獲利擴張的函數?或者是否還有其他槓桿,即使例如到 2027 年獲利展望可能較為持平,也能推動更高的轉換率?我不是說你們就是這樣預期,但假設在獲利持平的情境下,我們會看到自由現金流轉換率改善嗎?

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • Duane, I'll take that one as well. You've heard us talk a lot about operating cash flow, and you've seen meaningful improvement there as we've had improvements in the business. Moving from operating cash flow to free cash flow is largely going to depend on the timing of fleet transactions. It is a little more back weighted in the year as far as us taking us taking deliveries. The non-aircraft CapEx is relatively constant through the year.

    Duane,我也來回答這題。你們聽我們談了很多營運現金流,而隨著業務改善,你們也看到那裡有顯著提升。從營運現金流到自由現金流,主要將取決於機隊交易時點。就我們接收交付而言,時點在年度內會稍微偏向下半年。非飛機資本支出(CapEx)在全年則相對穩定。

  • So yes, I think you're thinking about it the right way, Duane, which is we continue to improve the underlying profitability of the business that generates operating cash flow, and then that translation ultimately to free cash flow will depend largely on the timing of the deliveries. And because we largely pay cash and/or unsecured/some secured financing for the aircraft. Generally, as we take on those new deliveries, there's no net CapEx offset that would come with leasing that would bring more free cash flow and reduce the CapEx.

    所以是的,Duane,我認為你的思路是對的:我們持續提升業務的基礎獲利能力以產生營運現金流,而最終轉換成自由現金流,將在很大程度上取決於交付時點。而且因為我們在飛機方面多半以現金支付,及/或採用無擔保/部分有擔保融資。一般而言,當我們接收這些新交付時,不會像採用租賃那樣有淨資本支出(CapEx)抵銷,從而帶來更多自由現金流並降低 CapEx。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

    Brandon Oglenski,Barclays。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • Bob, in your prepared remarks, I think one of the two or three things you said about the objectives looking for is refining the pricing of your products and the new suite of fares that you guys have out there. So I don't know if you or Justin want to comment on that. But does that help an environment where fuel is so volatile and maybe compare and contrast with how you did things in the past.

    Bob,在你準備好的發言中,我想你提到你們正在尋求達成的兩三個目標之一,是精進你們產品定價以及你們推出的新票價組合。所以我不確定你或 Justin 是否願意評論一下。但這是否有助於在燃油如此波動的環境下運作?也請你們對照一下過去你們的做法。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. I think the point is really that -- I mean the changes in the business have been tremendous. I mean we have a much more diverse set of revenue streams, more than at any point in our history. The customer reaction to the products has been really strong. The engagement is really strong.

    是的。我認為重點其實在於——我的意思是,業務上的變化非常巨大。我們現在擁有更為多元的營收來源,這在我們歷史上前所未有。客戶對這些產品的反應非常強烈。互動參與度也非常高。

  • We mentioned this, but 35% increase in new member record tiering qualification, 28% increase in co-brand card acquisition. So everything about the promise of the transformation is showing up in the business. And it fundamentally changes the model and it fundamentally changes the earnings ability in production and it changes the durability of the earnings stream in my mind.

    我們提過這點:新會員創紀錄的等級資格認定增加了 35%,聯名卡(co-brand card)新增獲客增加了 28%。因此,轉型承諾的各個面向都正在業務中顯現。在我看來,這從根本上改變了商業模式,也從根本上改變了獲利能力的產出,並提升了獲利來源的耐久性。

  • Now you've got an opportunity to really continue to push in all of those areas. So as Justin has mentioned a lot, we have a lot of opportunity to continue to optimize the network to optimize our pricing around the new products, whether that's ancillary or (inaudible), we have opportunities to continue to optimize the products themselves. I also see these customer engagement metrics that are super strong, I would say, leading indicators of the opportunity in co-brands. So we have the opportunity to continue to drive the co-brand contribution to the business and then continue to expand the co-brand opportunities of new cards, those kinds of things.

    現在你們有機會在所有這些領域持續推進。因此,正如 Justin 多次提到的,我們有很大的空間持續優化航網、圍繞新產品優化定價——不論是附加收入(ancillary)或(聽不清),我們也有機會持續優化產品本身。我也看到這些客戶互動指標非常強勁;我會說,這是聯名卡機會的領先指標。因此,我們有機會持續提升聯名卡對業務的貢獻,並持續擴大聯名卡的新卡等機會、諸如此類。

  • So the point is the transformation has fundamentally changed the earnings power of this company. You see that in the year-over-year margin change, the only airline to actually strengthen margins over 3 points year-over-year. And despite $900 million in fuel increase, and we have more to come out of the products that we have and then we'll continue to expand on the product set. So I'm incredibly bullish about where we are and I'm incredibly bullish about where we are going.

    所以重點是,這次轉型從根本上改變了這家公司的獲利能力。你可以從年對年利潤率變化看出來——我們是唯一一家年對年利潤率實際提升超過 3 個百分點的航空公司。而且即便燃油成本增加了 9 億美元,我們仍有更多可從既有產品中釋放的效益,並且我們也會持續擴充產品組合。所以我對我們目前的位置非常看多,也對我們將要前往的方向非常看多。

  • On top of that, the backdrop remains really strong, and some of that is the reaction to our new products. Some of that is the reaction, obviously, just generally that the industry is seeing. Demand in the third quarter -- in the second quarter was very robust. Revenue was very robust, and we saw that accelerate, managed business being up 30% year-over-year on basically flat capacity to me is just incredible. And we're seeing that same strength continue directly into the third quarter here.

    除此之外,整體大環境依然非常強勁,其中一部分來自市場對我們新產品的反應。另一部分當然是整個產業普遍所看到的反應。第三季——第二季的需求非常強勁。營收也非常強勁,而且我們看到其加速;在運能基本持平的情況下,管理型商務(managed business)年對年成長 30%,在我看來簡直不可思議。而我們也看到同樣的強勢直接延續到目前的第三季。

  • We're not seeing the strength. We exited the second quarter very strong, and we're seeing that same strength here in the third. I mean, just as one example. The third quarter, I think, right now is booked about 65% in place and yields are running up 24% year-over-year compared to 13% for Q2 at this point. So there is no deceleration in the strength and the demand, no deceleration in the strength in the revenues and the fares.

    我們沒有看到強勢減弱。我們在第二季結束時非常強勁,而在第三季也看到同樣的強勢。我的意思是,舉一個例子。第三季目前我想已經完成約 65% 的訂位,而收益率(yield)年對年上升 24%;相比之下,第二季在同一時間點是 13%。所以需求強度沒有減速,營收與票價的強度也沒有減速。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

    Catherine O'Brien,Goldman Sachs。

  • Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

    Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

  • On the revenue side, now that we're in the first full quarter of all the new product initiatives, I was just wondering if there's any stats you can maybe share on how buy up from basic or baggage take rates are trending versus your initial expectations and how that factored into the revenue beat, if it did?

    在營收方面,現在我們正處於所有新產品計畫的第一個完整季度,我想請問是否有任何數據可以分享:例如從基本票(basic)加價升等(buy up)或行李加購的採用率(take rates)相較於你們最初預期的趨勢如何?以及這是否、若有的話,如何促成了營收超預期?

  • And then, Tom, another beat on the cost side in the quarter. Would be great to hear what the main driver of that was and how we should think about the puts and takes on CASM to 4Q from here? And then can you just remind us if aircraft sales are included when you give the initial quarterly guide?

    然後,Tom,本季在成本端又有一個利多。很希望聽聽主要驅動因素是什麼,以及從現在到第四季(4Q)我們應該如何看待CASM的拉鋸因素?另外,你能否提醒我們,在你們提供最初的季度指引時,是否包含飛機出售?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, I'll take the first one. We're not going to break out the value of the individual initiatives, but I can talk a little bit about the trends of what they are versus our expectations. So we are outperforming -- when we think about what we've done with basic economy, we are selling more basic economy fares, but that's because we've expanded the basic economy product into more of our fare structure overall.

    是的,我先回答第一個。我們不會拆分各項個別措施的價值,但我可以談談它們相對於我們預期的趨勢。因此,我們的表現優於預期——就我們在基本經濟艙(basic economy)所做的而言,我們賣出更多基本經濟艙票價,但那是因為我們已將基本經濟艙產品擴展到整體票價結構中的更多部分。

  • We are also seeing incremental sell-up. So meaning that when people have options to trade up, we're providing those options more often, and we're seeing more of that trade up. And so both of those are outperforming what our initial expectations are. And as Bob noted, there is a clear expectation that we'll continue to tweak the models and work with Tony Roach's team to make the product better moving forward.

    我們也看到額外的升艙(sell-up)。也就是說,當旅客有升級選項時,我們更常提供這些選項,而我們也看到更多人選擇升級。因此,這兩項都優於我們最初的預期。而且如Bob所提到的,我們明確預期會持續微調模型,並與Tony Roach的團隊合作,讓產品在未來變得更好。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And, Catie, to your question on drivers for CASM. It's really happening throughout the business, as I mentioned before, and this is everything from getting more efficient on the technology side. We've been, I think, really efficient on the supply chain and on the maintenance side of things. You've heard us talk in the past about nonfrontline head count dollars staying flat to 2025. We've had really good efficiency from our frontline teams as well, which sets a large part of our cost structure.

    另外,Catie,關於你問到的CASM驅動因素。正如我先前提到的,這其實是整個業務全面發生的,從提升科技端效率開始。我認為我們在供應鏈以及維修維護端也做得非常有效率。你們過去也聽我們談過,非第一線人力的編制成本將維持持平直到2025年。我們第一線團隊也帶來了非常好的效率,而這構成了我們成本結構的很大一部分。

  • So it's very broad-based.

    所以這是非常廣泛、全面性的。

  • And then separately to your question on aircraft sales, yes, you are right. As we move to a simplified EPS structure in the guide there, that is inclusive of any gains that would come as we are disposing of these assets, so yes.

    另外,關於你問到的飛機出售,是的,你說得沒錯。當我們在指引中改採較簡化的EPS結構時,其中已包含我們處分這些資產所可能帶來的任何處分利益,所以是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu,Jefferies。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • Good morning, guys, and thank you again. Maybe just a lot of questioning on this, but just putting a finer point on how we think about the Q2, the guidance in terms of the deceleration at the midpoint for Q3, while legacy peers are guiding to RASM acceleration. Maybe can you just parse out the tailwinds and headwinds, if possible, on the sequential deceleration across initiatives, the comp and the macro demand? Is that possible?

    各位早安,也再次感謝。也許大家對這點問了很多,但我想更精準地釐清我們如何看待第二季(Q2)指引:在第三季(Q3)中位數呈現放緩,而同業(傳統航空公司)卻指引RASM加速。如果可以的話,能否拆解一下在各項措施、比較基期(comp)以及總體需求(macro demand)方面,造成連續季放緩的順風與逆風?可以嗎?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yeah, let me just talk in the -- and I don't -- yes, we're not going to break it out into components, but the change sequentially Q2 to Q3 is completely and simply the headwinds created by the initiatives that we put into place about this time last year in 2025 that contributed. So our bases as a comparator is just higher. It was bag fees, a number of things, as I mentioned, bag fees on their own is about $1 billion a year, so call it, maybe 2.5 points. And then on top of that, you have, obviously, other initiatives that we implemented that are in that headwind.

    好的,我先用——我不——是的,我們不會把它拆成各個組成項,但從Q2到Q3的連續季變化,完全且單純就是我們在去年這個時候、於2025年推出的各項措施所造成的逆風,因為那些措施在當時帶來了貢獻。所以作為比較基期,我們的基準就是更高。包括行李費等多項措施;如我提到的,單是行李費一年大約就是10億美元,所以大概可算約2.5個百分點。此外,顯然還有其他我們已實施的措施,也都反映在這個逆風之中。

  • So you take even the bag fees, let alone the rest and you add that to the third quarter guide, and you are sequentially ahead of our second quarter, [20.1] and it's on a number, obviously, that is substantially higher than the rest of the industry. So there's no there is no deceleration in demand. There's no deceleration in the fares. There's no deceleration in managed business. There's no deceleration in the strength of the product performance, none of that. This is simply a factor of the base stepping up because of the products that we implemented this time last year.

    所以即便只看行李費,更不用說其他措施,把這些加回到第三季指引裡,你們會看到我們在連續季上其實是高於第二季的[20.1],而且這個數字顯然也大幅高於產業其他公司。所以需求沒有放緩。票價沒有放緩。管理型商務(managed business)沒有放緩。產品表現的強勁也沒有放緩,完全沒有。這純粹是因為我們去年這個時候推出的產品,使得比較基期墊高所致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citi.

    John Godyn,Citi。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Bob, in the prepared remarks, you mentioned a bunch of reasons it's impossible to replicate Southwest assets. Of course, other airlines would argue it's impossible to replicate theirs, too. But some of them have been spending billions of dollars a year on CapEx, product, IT, other improvements, and they've been doing it for years.

    Bob,在事先準備的發言中,你提到很多理由說西南航空的資產不可能被複製。當然,其他航空公司也會說他們的也不可能被複製。但其中一些公司多年來每年投入數十億美元的資本支出(CapEx)、產品、IT及其他改善,而且已經做了很多年。

  • So my question is just to think through this, not a specific number, but just to sort of discuss and think through how much incremental investment it takes to replicate assets that are thought to be impossible to replicate?

    所以我的問題是,想請你從概念上思考一下,不是要一個特定數字,而是想討論並推演:要複製那些被認為不可能複製的資產,大概需要多少額外投資?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • John, that's a wide-ranging question, but I think I would just start with the point is not what would it take to -- for us to take ourselves to an equivalent product to pick another airline. The point is that we've changed the business model of Southwest Airlines to meet customers' needs and expectations to broadly diversify the revenue streams, to create more durability in the instability in the earnings, and you combine that with, I think, without question, historic core strengths at Southwest Airlines has always had. And no carrier can replicate those or even close. We have the largest domestic network, period. We have the most nonstop flights, which are incredibly important to customers, period.

    John,這是一個涵蓋面很廣的問題,但我想我會先從一點開始:重點不在於我們要付出什麼代價,才能把自己提升到與另一家航空公司同等的產品水準。重點在於,我們已經改變了西南航空的商業模式,以滿足客戶需求與期待,讓營收來源更廣泛多元化,並在獲利波動的不穩定性中創造更高的韌性;同時再結合我認為毫無疑問、西南航空一向具備的歷史核心優勢。而且沒有任何航空公司能複製這些,甚至連接近都做不到。我們擁有全美最大的國內航網,毫無疑問。我們擁有最多的直飛航班,這對客戶極其重要,毫無疑問。

  • As Justin said, we have the #1 position in not a few hubs, but in nearly half of the 50 largest US states, cities. We have incredible cost discipline and efficiency. And our efficiency has always been very hard to replicate because it's a matter of how we manage the aircraft and aircraft utilization and the network. And you're seeing the discipline come through in cost quarter after quarter now.

    如Justin所說,我們不只是少數幾個樞紐排名第一,而是在美國50個最大州/城市中,接近一半都居於第一。我們有令人驚豔的成本紀律與效率。而我們的效率一直很難被複製,因為那取決於我們如何管理機隊、飛機使用率以及航網。而你們也看到,成本面的紀律一季又一季地展現出來。

  • Cost in the low to mid-3s on flat capacity here.

    在運能持平的情況下,成本落在低到中3%的區間。

  • And then we have without a doubt, the best service, the best hospitality from the best people, and that shows up in whether it's JD Power or the Wall Street Journal rankings or others, it shows up time and time again that, that is a huge differentiator for Southwest. Any one of those is tough to replicate like the network. Those in combination are incredibly tough to replicate. And you take all of those strengths and combine them with the fact that we've now dramatically improved our product, diversified our revenue streams. And we're going to do more.

    此外,毫無疑問,我們擁有最好的服務、最好的待客之道,來自最棒的員工;這也反映在不論是JD Power、華爾街日報的排名或其他評比中,一次又一次地顯示,這是西南航空非常重要的差異化優勢。上述任何一項都很難被複製,例如航網。而把這些優勢結合在一起,更是極其難以複製。再把所有這些優勢,與我們如今大幅改善產品、讓營收來源多元化的事實結合起來。而且我們還會做得更多。

  • I think it's a combination that is incredibly tough to match. We may choose to continue to invest in products. We will without a doubt. But the real point is the combination of core strengths that no other airline can replicate.

    我認為這樣的組合非常難以匹敵。我們可能會選擇持續投資於產品。我們毫無疑問會這麼做。但真正的重點是:這些核心優勢的組合,是其他航空公司無法複製的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    Ravi Shanker,Morgan Stanley。

  • Ravi Shanker - Equity Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Equity Analyst

  • Just a couple of follow-ups here, maybe on corporate, now that the revenue initiatives has some time to [embed] in. Can you just talk about how share may have shifted, particularly in corporate? And how much room do you think there is to get up to your view level there for corporate share?

    我這裡有幾個追問,可能先從企業客戶(corporate)談起,現在營收措施已經有一些時間[embed]進來了。你能否談談市占是否有變化,特別是在企業客戶方面?以及你認為企業客戶市占要提升到你們所認為的水準,還有多少空間?

  • And maybe as a follow-up, I thought I heard you guys mentioned hundreds of millions of dollars in incremental cost saves. I don't know if I misheard, but that sounds pretty exciting. Can you just talk about how much of that is already in the guide? And what is the long-term runway on that, please?

    也許作為後續追問,我想我聽到你們提到數億美元的額外成本節省。我不確定是不是我聽錯了,但那聽起來相當令人振奮。你能談談其中有多少已經反映在你們的指引裡嗎?以及這方面長期的發揮空間(runway)有多大,謝謝?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So I'm happy to take the corporate share one. So as we talked about the significant nominal increase in revenue on a year-over-year basis, and we also talked about seeing improvements not only in fare, but also in nominal load factor points as well as the mix of total O&Ds.

    是的。我很樂意先回答企業客戶市占那一部分。如同我們談到的,我們的營收在年對年基礎上有顯著的名目增長;同時我們也談到,不僅票價有所改善,名目載客率點數以及整體O&D組合也都有所改善。

  • So I think the way I look at it is we still actually have some pretty significant disadvantages relative to our peers, whether it's buying ancillary products through different channels that our corporate passengers book through. There's a lot of tactical things that the teams can go out and do to push that, but it's also going to ride right on the hotels of what we're going to be doing with the network. As we build these points of strength, as we move our capacity around to offer a much better network product to our customers, you're going to see that customer share increase, and that's exactly what we see already as we made these changes. As we improve the network, our corporate load factors are going up.

    所以我看待這件事的方式是:相較同業,我們其實仍有一些相當明顯的劣勢,例如企業旅客透過不同通路預訂時,購買附加產品(ancillary products)的能力等。團隊可以做很多戰術性的事情去推動,但這也會直接取決於我們在航網(network)上要做的事。當我們建立這些優勢據點、調整運能以向客戶提供更好的航網產品時,你會看到客戶市占提升;而這正是我們在做出這些改變後已經看到的結果。隨著航網改善,我們的企業載客率正在上升。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And, Ravi, to your cost question, yes, the hundreds of millions of dollars of savings are in the guide. And this is just disciplined work by all of the leaders here. And what I've loved is, you've heard me say this before, this is not finance going around and having conversations about how we save money. This is every leader at the company figuring out ways to make their areas more efficient and collectively partnering with us to find savings throughout the entire business.

    另外,Ravi,關於你的成本問題,是的,數億美元的節省已經包含在指引中。這只是所有領導團隊有紀律地推動的成果。我很欣賞的一點是——你以前也聽我說過——這不是財務部到處去跟大家談怎麼省錢。而是公司每一位領導者都在想辦法讓自己的領域更有效率,並與我們共同合作,在整個業務中找出節省空間。

  • So that comment of hundreds of millions of dollars of savings is incremental savings that we found since the beginning of the year as we've been working together. And yes, it is incorporated into the full year guide we gave you.

    所以所謂數億美元的節省,是指我們自年初以來在共同合作過程中額外找到的增量節省。而且是的,它已經納入我們提供的全年指引。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

    Tom Fitzgerald,TD Cowen。

  • Thomas Fitzgerald - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Fitzgerald - Equity Analyst

  • I was curious on the fleet side, if you could talk a little bit about your long-term maintenance agreements and how that could be an advantage just because there's this transition to the new technology engines.

    我想請教機隊方面,你們能否談談長期維修協議,以及在新技術引擎轉換的背景下,這如何可能成為一項優勢?

  • And then just as a follow-up, should we expect that airline benefit revenue component of loyalty, should that grow with the overall business in 2027? Or is that more kind of flat based on cardholder spend? Any color on that would be really helpful.

    另外作為追問,忠誠計畫中「航空公司福利收入」這個組成部分,是否應該在2027年隨著整體業務一起成長?還是它比較偏向持平,主要取決於持卡人消費?若能提供一些說明會很有幫助。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • Tom, I'll take the first one on the fleet side. My comment before was around having maintenance value in the assets that we are selling. And that value is trading strongly in the market now. The underlying assets, aircraft and engines and other assets are -- that market is strong, and we think it will be strong for the foreseeable future. But then the actual value of the maintenance itself is also trading at higher amounts as well.

    Tom,我先回答機隊的第一個問題。我先前的評論是關於我們正在出售的資產中所包含的維修價值(maintenance value)。而這個價值目前在市場上的交易表現很強勁。底層資產——飛機、引擎及其他資產——的市場很強,我們認為在可預見的未來仍會維持強勢。但維修本身的實際價值也同樣以更高的金額在交易。

  • And so as we sell assets into the market, we benefit from that strength. And I think that's pretty widely known that there's strength in those markets.

    因此,當我們把資產出售到市場時,就能受益於這股強勢。而且我想大家也都相當清楚,這些市場確實很強。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • And then, Tom, it's Bob. I'll take the second. I think you're talking about the co-brand benefit. I think the answer is yes. You should expect over time as products mature, customer engagement with the new products mature, I would expect that to show in the co-brand remuneration.

    另外,Tom,我是Bob。我來回答第二個問題。我想你指的是聯名卡(co-brand)的福利。我認為答案是肯定的。隨著時間推進、產品逐漸成熟,以及客戶對新產品的互動逐步成熟,我預期這會反映在聯名卡的回饋/分潤(remuneration)上。

  • I mentioned this before, we have strong to meet leading indicators of not only the fact that customers, business and leisure are strongly engaging in our new products, but it's causing them to strongly engage from a loyalty perspective. Again, the growth in new membership, the growth interior, the growth in card acquisition, et cetera. So I see those as leading indicators that will, over time, turn into continued card spending growth and then co-brand.

    我之前提過,我們有強勁、甚至可說是領先的指標,顯示不僅商務與休閒旅客都在積極使用我們的新產品,也促使他們在忠誠度層面更積極參與。例如新會員成長、(中間內容不清)成長、發卡獲客成長等等。因此我把這些視為領先指標,隨著時間推進,將轉化為持續的刷卡消費成長,進而帶動聯名卡。

  • The second piece of that, we fully intend to continue to expand the co-brand offering and opportunities for our customers. I know I've teased the lounges. That's something obviously -- there's work underway. We're not ready to formally announce that yet. But the whole purpose, again, is to expand co-brand opportunities, expand the card set and provide to our customers something that they really, really want.

    第二點是,我們完全打算持續擴大聯名卡的產品供給與客戶機會。我知道我曾稍微提到貴賓室(lounges)。那顯然——目前已有相關工作在進行中。我們還沒準備好正式對外宣布。但整體目的仍然是擴大聯名卡機會、擴充卡片組合,並為客戶提供他們真正、非常想要的東西。

  • So I think you see evidence that the -- our customers are our customer engagement is moving quickly in the right direction. And over time, that will mature. And I think it matures into things like card spend and co-brand remuneration, and then we'll continue to expand the offering, which will do the same.

    所以我認為你已經看到一些證據——我們的客戶互動正快速朝正確方向前進。而隨著時間推移,這會逐步成熟。我認為成熟後會體現在刷卡消費與聯名卡分潤等項目上;同時我們也會持續擴大供給,並帶來同樣的效果。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So I wanted to ask on capacity. If I look at Q4 up 4% to 5% year over year, I think it's the biggest sequential Q3, Q4 increase maybe we've ever seen. So I just wanted to sort of understand the thought on that. And I don't know if you have any sort of early thoughts about how you're thinking about capacity in 2027, yes.

    我想問一下運能(capacity)。如果我看第四季年對年增加4%到5%,我覺得這可能是我們見過最大的第三季到第四季的連續增幅。所以我想了解你們對此的思考。另外,不知道你們是否已經有一些初步想法,關於2027年運能會怎麼規劃?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So well, looking at our sequential growth that we have going into Q4, it is up 4.5%. You'll probably see us make some slight tweaks to that schedule as we get closer out there. But if you look at where we have that capacity growth, again, it is in our point of strength. And so this is not trying to go and expand into new markets for us that are going to underperform the rest of the network.

    是的。就我們進入第四季的連續成長來看,確實是增加4.5%。隨著時間更接近,你可能會看到我們對該班表做一些小幅調整。但如果你看我們把運能成長放在哪裡——同樣地,是放在我們的優勢據點。因此這不是要去擴張到對我們而言的新市場、而那些市場會拖累整體航網表現。

  • Everywhere where we're putting aircraft, we expect to produce profitable earnings for us year this year. And again, it is -- you will see us focus on capacity discipline moving forward, not only this year but also into next.

    我們把飛機投放到的每一個地方,都預期今年能為我們帶來獲利。而且同樣地——你會看到我們未來會專注於運能紀律,不僅是今年,也包括明年。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • To that point, any like early thoughts on what '27 capacity could look like?

    延續這點,有沒有任何初步想法,關於2027年的運能可能會是什麼樣子?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • No, we're not prepared to talk about that yet. You can kind of see what we have out in the first quarter out there, and we will probably make some adjustments from that, but we're not ready to talk about what the full year capacity looks like.

    沒有,我們還沒準備好談這個。你大概可以看到我們目前對第一季的規劃,我們可能也會在此基礎上做一些調整,但我們還沒準備好談全年運能會是什麼樣子。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • David Vernon, Bernstein.

    David Vernon,Bernstein。

  • David Vernon - Analyst

    David Vernon - Analyst

  • A couple of questions for you on the commercial side. With the 28% growth in credit card acquisitions, any sort of geographic commentary or level of card spending activity within the co-brand would be helpful just because we're all trying to figure out kind of how strong the consumer is if you're seeing any sort of noticeable trends in terms of where people (inaudible) and how much they are spending.

    我有幾個商務面(commercial side)問題。在信用卡獲客成長28%的情況下,若能提供一些地理分布的評論,或聯名卡內部的刷卡消費活動水準,會很有幫助,因為我們都在試著判斷消費者到底有多強;想了解你們是否看到任何明顯趨勢,例如人們(聽不清)在哪裡,以及他們花了多少。

  • And then maybe a second question I'll tack in there around Starlink. And you've talked about 300 aircraft. Is that a hard cap? And do you ever intend to get the whole fleet up and running on Starlink? And if so, when would that deadline be?

    接著我想再補問一個關於 Starlink 的問題。你們提到 300 架飛機。那是一個硬性上限嗎?你們是否打算讓整個機隊都啟用 Starlink 並投入運作?如果是的話,目標期限會是什麼時候?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • So we expect the -- so where we're seeing the growth in the card is across the board. There's not any one region. We're seeing really good response, not only to our product changes, but also just with our offer that we have out there. So that's been across the board.

    我們預期——我們看到卡片業務的成長是全面性的。並不是集中在某一個地區。我們看到非常好的回應,不僅來自我們的產品變更,也來自我們目前推出的方案。所以這是全方位的。

  • Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

    Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. For Starlink, we are paced by the output of antennas from Starlink. Our tech ops team is prepared to install as many as possible. We signed a contract with them and the progression will match the deliveries. And then for the long term, we haven't given guidance on that.

    是的。就 Starlink 而言,我們的進度取決於 Starlink 天線的產出。我們的技術營運團隊已準備好盡可能多地安裝。我們已與他們簽約,推進節奏將與交付相匹配。至於長期方面,我們尚未就此提供指引。

  • But obviously, we have aircraft are uncommitted that we could use any supplier for it. So we will make sure that we kind of get the best deal as we seek to provide high-quality WiFi across our fleet. I think it's really telling that all of our aircraft have free WiFi. And so everything is already updated. We're going to the next generation. So conceivably, we could be the first to have really superfast WiFi across the fleet, and so we're excited about that.

    但很明顯,我們還有一些飛機尚未承諾使用特定方案,我們可以選擇任何供應商。因此,當我們致力於在全機隊提供高品質 WiFi 時,我們會確保能拿到最好的條件。我認為很能說明問題的是,我們所有飛機都提供免費 WiFi。所以一切都已經更新到位。我們正在邁向下一代。因此,理論上我們可能會成為第一家在全機隊提供真正超高速 WiFi 的航空公司,我們對此感到很興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Atul Maheswari, UBS.

    Atul Maheswari,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Atul Maheswari - Analyst

    Atul Maheswari - Analyst

  • Two quick ones. First, on San Diego, one of your competitors talked about gaining several points of share in corporate in that market. So that's really been a market with sizable industry capacity growth. Can you talk about Southwest strategy in that key market? And then second one on fuel.

    兩個簡短問題。第一個關於聖地牙哥,你們的一家競爭對手提到在該市場的企業客戶份額提升了好幾個百分點。那確實是一個產業運能成長相當可觀的市場。你能談談西南航空在這個關鍵市場的策略嗎?第二個問題是關於燃油。

  • The second quarter, jet fuel was seemingly below, others are also below the Gulf Coast average of $4 or a little over $4 for you. So could you remind us of your West Coast exposure and any additional fuel sourcing dynamics in the second quarter that might have driven your fuel per gallon to be below other airlines?

    第二季,你們的航煤價格似乎低於墨西哥灣沿岸平均價每加侖 4 美元或略高於 4 美元的水準,其他公司也在那之下。所以你能否提醒我們你們在西岸的曝險程度,以及第二季是否有任何額外的燃油採購動態,可能導致你們的每加侖燃油成本低於其他航空公司?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Justin will take the first, and Tom second.

    第一題由 Justin 回答,第二題由 Tom 回答。

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I can't speak to everything that's going on in San Diego with -- if you have a smaller basis point and what growth you might see from that. But overall, we're seeing our load factor points coming from corporate growth. And as we've grown capacity there, we've seen corporate share come along with that.

    是的。我無法評論聖地牙哥那邊所有正在發生的事情——如果你指的是較小的基點變化,以及你可能從中看到的成長。但整體而言,我們看到載客率的提升主要來自企業客戶的成長。而隨著我們在那裡擴增運能,我們也看到企業客戶份額隨之提升。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • On the fuel side, thank you for the shout-out to our fuel team. I love that. I think they're doing an incredible job. They're very strategic in the way that they think about what we do. We talked about our balance sheet being a differentiator. This is one of the ways that our balance sheet provides cost savings to us.

    在燃油方面,謝謝你特別提到我們的燃油團隊。我很喜歡這點。我認為他們做得非常出色。他們在思考我們的作法時非常有策略性。我們談到資產負債表是我們的差異化優勢。這就是資產負債表為我們帶來成本節省的其中一種方式。

  • We're about 50% Gulf. I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we actually shipped some Gulf to the West Coast during a time when the pricing differential was most acute. I love that our team did that. And the fact that we are mostly Midwest and Gulf Coast that we don't have a lot of international. I mean there was a time during the quarter where international was $1-plus greater and that we were taking, mitigating actions around the West Coast, those are all things that led to fuel being where it was. So again, I'll give the same shout out to our team, but I totally appreciate the shoutout you just gave them, well deserved.

    我們大約有 50% 來自墨西哥灣沿岸。我在事先準備的發言中提到,我們其實在價差最為劇烈的時期,把部分墨西哥灣沿岸的燃油運到西岸。我很欣賞我們團隊這麼做。而且我們主要集中在中西部與墨西哥灣沿岸,國際航線占比不高。我的意思是,本季有一段時間國際市場的價格高出 1 美元以上,而我們也針對西岸採取了緩解措施,這些因素都使燃油成本落在目前的水準。所以我再次向團隊致意,也非常感謝你剛才對他們的肯定,實至名歸。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    Chris Wetherbee,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Unidentified Participant

    Unidentified Participant

  • Hey, guys, good morning. You got [Matt] on for Chris. Since the 1Q conference call, how many fare increases have you implemented? And then also, were there any in the month of July? And then just putting some of the initiatives to the side, we're just trying to get a sense of how that played out and if there's opportunity for more to come in the second half of this year? And then second question, was the revenue breakage adjustment contemplated in the 2Q guide?

    各位早安。我是代替 Chris 的 [Matt]。自第一季電話會議以來,你們已實施了多少次票價上調?另外,7 月是否也有上調?再者,先把一些措施放一邊,我們只是想了解實際效果如何,以及今年下半年是否還有進一步上調的空間?第二個問題是,第二季指引中是否已考量到收入破損(breakage)調整?

  • Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. So just on the fare increase, we're not going to say the exact number that we had because there -- obviously, there's been a few system-wide ones, but then there's been a lot of them that have been to different parts. And obviously, different parts of the network. And obviously, we've made our own fare adjustments there. But the only thing I will say is that the fare environment is very robust right now, and we're seeing strong response, not only in fares but also in actually bookings moving forward, and that continues into fall, and I don't see that changing.

    是的。就票價上調而言,我們不會說出確切次數,因為——很明顯,有幾次是全系統性的,但也有很多是針對不同區域、以及不同航網部分。而且很明顯,我們也在那裡做了自己的票價調整。但我唯一想說的是,目前票價環境非常強勁,我們看到很強的回應,不僅在票價上,也包括未來的訂位表現;這種情況延續到秋季,我不認為會改變。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • I think the other thing to point out, too, is the -- you just look at the 20.1% unit revenue increase and then the fact that we significantly outperformed the rest of the industry on unit revenues. Yes, some of that, of course, was the fare and pricing environment. But a significant -- the significant portion of that were our own idiosyncratic initiatives and those initiatives are performing. That is the reason we outperformed the rest of the industry and outperformed them substantially.

    我認為另外一點也值得指出的是——你只要看看單位營收增加 20.1%,以及我們在單位營收上明顯優於同業。是的,其中一部分當然來自票價與定價環境。但其中相當——主要部分來自我們自身一些具公司特性的(idiosyncratic)措施,而這些措施正在發揮效果。這就是我們能優於同業、而且大幅優於同業的原因。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And on the accounting question on revenue breakage, as Bob mentioned earlier, the revenue breakage item that we had this quarter didn't relate at all to 2026. And so it just wasn't relevant to it. And I guess if you think about it, if the assumption around breakage changed slightly, it actually would have reduced a little bit of the revenue into 2025, which actually would have resulted in even higher year-over-year RASM had it been accounted for that way. So no, it was not accounted for nor should it have been.

    至於收入破損(breakage)的會計問題,如 Bob 先前提到,我們本季的收入破損項目與 2026 年完全無關。因此它並不相關。而且如果你這樣想:若對破損的假設略有變動,實際上會讓一小部分收入轉而落在 2025 年,若以那種方式入帳,年增的 RASM 反而會更高。所以沒有,它既未被納入,也不應該被納入。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Dan McKenzie, Seaport Global Securities.

    Dan McKenzie,Seaport Global Securities。

  • Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

    Daniel McKenzie - Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. Thanks for squeezing me in and congrats to the team on a breakout quarter here. Bob, I hear you loud and clear on the current demand and revenue trends, no deceleration. I hear you. So my question really is, this is for your longer-term holders, people who take a two- to three-year holding period. Is how you're thinking about demand durability longer term?

    早安。謝謝讓我插個問題,也恭喜團隊本季表現亮眼。Bob,我很清楚聽到你對目前需求與營收趨勢的看法:沒有放緩。我聽到了。所以我的問題其實是,這是替你們的長期持有人問的,也就是持有期兩到三年的人。你們如何看待更長期的需求持久性(durability)?

  • I'm just curious, what are the concrete data points that give you confidence that what we're seeing today is, in fact, durable. And I get that fares are 10% to 15% pre-COVID levels, and maybe it's an AI economy. But I'm just curious, what else gives you confidence? That's my first question. And then the second question is just the appetite for returning additional capital to the shareholders from here.

    我只是好奇,究竟有哪些具體的數據點讓你有信心,認為我們今天看到的情況確實是可持續的。我理解票價較COVID前水準高出10%到15%,而且也許這是一個AI經濟。但我只是好奇,還有什麼讓你有信心?這是我的第一個問題。然後第二個問題是,從現在起把額外資本回饋給股東的意願如何。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, Dan, thank you. And Tom will take the second one. Yes, you've heard me over and over and over, probably more than you wanted on this call, talk about the confidence in the performance of this transformation and then the confidence in the demand environment. So I think I'd break it into multiple pieces.

    是的,Dan,謝謝你。第二個問題由Tom來回答。是的,你已經一再、一再、又一再地聽我說過——可能比你在這通電話上想聽的還多——談到我對這次轉型績效的信心,以及對需求環境的信心。所以我想我會把它拆成幾個部分。

  • Number one, the consumer is incredibly resilient. You just sort of put aside everything that we're doing, just look at the industry demand, pricing, revenue production has remained incredibly robust, and it's across all sectors, all geographies. This is the strongest I've seen it and the broadest that I've seen strength, period. And it does appear that consumers are prioritizing travel and you're seeing that even in the face of higher pricing. So just generally, I'm very bullish on the fact that consumers are going to continue to prioritize travel and drive demand.

    第一,消費者的韌性非常強。你先把我們正在做的一切先放一邊,單看產業需求、定價、營收產出,仍然非常強勁,而且涵蓋所有客群、所有地理區域。這是我見過最強、而且強勢最廣的一次,沒有之一。而且看起來消費者正在優先安排旅行,即使在價格更高的情況下你也看得到這點。所以總體而言,我非常看多消費者會持續把旅行放在優先順序上,並帶動需求。

  • Separately, for Southwest Airlines and unique to Southwest Airlines, the product changes that we put in place are resonating across the board with our customers and with customers that we are now gaining. And that's the reason managed business revenues were up 30%. That's the reason Rapid Rewards new members are up 35% and card acquisitions up 28%. And across the board, every measure of engagement, every engagement that would point to whether the products are being accepted and we're wanted by our customers are up and they're off the charts. So it gives you a good indicator of the acceptance, but it also gives you a good indicator of future performance of those customers as they mature and they spend more with Southwest Airlines.

    另外,對西南航空而言、也是西南航空獨有的,我們推出的產品變革在各方面都與我們的客戶產生共鳴,也與我們正在爭取到的新客戶產生共鳴。這就是受管理的商務營收成長30%的原因。這就是Rapid Rewards新會員成長35%、以及聯名卡新增辦卡成長28%的原因。而且全面來看,每一項互動指標、每一個能反映產品是否被接受、以及客戶是否想要我們的互動指標都在上升,表現非常亮眼。因此,這不僅是產品被接受的良好指標,也能很好地指向這些客戶隨著關係成熟、在西南航空消費更多時的未來表現。

  • Third, the whole transformation is a demonstration that Southwest is willing to change, able to change and is executing that change in an incredibly strong manner, and we're not done. We're going to continue to pursue the customer, whether that is product related, it is co-brand related, it's different things that they want from the company, and that drives even more future engagement, revenue production, demand, all those things. And then this is really more about revenues, less demand, but we have -- you've heard all of us talk about the opportunity to really optimize what we have in place beyond these tremendous results in the second quarter.

    第三,整個轉型證明了西南願意改變、能夠改變,而且正在以非常強勁的方式執行這些改變,而我們還沒做完。我們會持續追求客戶需求,不論是產品相關、聯名合作相關,或是他們希望公司提供的其他不同事項,這些都會帶來更多未來的互動、營收產出、需求等各方面的提升。接下來這點其實更偏向營收、較少是需求,但我們——你也聽到我們所有人談到——在第二季取得這些亮眼成果之後,仍有機會把既有的配置進一步最佳化。

  • We have a lot of opportunity to continue to optimize the network, as Justin discussed, and play to our points of strength, lots of opportunity to optimize the products themselves, the pricing of the products and then continue to grow and enhance our products, whether that's Starlink Wi-Fi, whether it's continued changes in the cabin, whatever.

    我們在持續最佳化航網方面還有很大空間,正如Justin所說,並且發揮我們的強項;在產品本身、產品定價方面也有很多最佳化機會,並且持續擴充與強化我們的產品,不論是Starlink Wi‑Fi,或是客艙的持續改造等等。

  • So I'm bullish across the board, bullish about the backdrop for the consumer and how that relates to travel and strength, incredibly bullish about the changes that we have made driving demand, driving pricing. And then third, the changes that we are going to make further driving demand for Southwest Airlines.

    所以我全面看多:看多消費者的整體背景以及其與旅行需求和強勁表現的關聯;也非常看多我們已做出的改變正在帶動需求、帶動定價。第三,也看多我們接下來還要做的改變,將進一步帶動對西南航空的需求。

  • So yes, as you can tell, I'm a strong believer that this is all working and it's incredibly positive for us. It's incredibly positive for our shareholders. It's producing durable products that in turn produces a durable set of earnings for our shareholders. So yes, I'm optimistic across the board about this company.

    所以是的,如你所見,我非常相信這一切都在奏效,而且對我們極為正面。這對我們的股東也極為正面。它正在打造可持續的產品,而這反過來也為股東帶來可持續的一組獲利。所以是的,我對這家公司各方面都很樂觀。

  • Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President, Principal Financial Officer

  • And, Dan, to your share repurchase question, as you know, we've repurchased a pretty meaningful amount of shares over the last couple of years, around the $4 billion or so mark there. Of course, we're not going to speak to specific plans around repurchasing shares here in the future. We've got some communicated guardrails that are out there on capital allocation. And so anything that we do with that capital allocation, including share repurchases, is going to fall within those guardrails.

    Dan,關於你提到的庫藏股回購問題,如你所知,過去幾年我們已回購了相當可觀的股份,約在40億美元左右。當然,我們不會在此談論未來回購股份的具體計畫。我們已對外溝通了一些資本配置的護欄(原則)。因此,我們在資本配置上的任何作為(包括股份回購)都會落在這些護欄之內。

  • And then I mentioned this earlier that as we think about the uses of cash, reinvesting in the business, including aircraft purchases, that is highly accretive. That's a very NPV positive thing to do as we replace older 737-700 with brand-new 737 MAXs, along with all the other investments that we're making in the business that's driving all of the great outperformance that you've seen here.

    另外我先前也提到,當我們思考現金用途時,對業務再投資(包括購機)是高度增值的。當我們以全新的737 MAX汰換較舊的737-700時,這是一件淨現值(NPV)非常正向的事;再加上我們在業務上所做的其他各項投資,正推動你在此看到的所有卓越超預期表現。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you, everyone, for joining us today, and of course, your continued interest in Southwest Airlines. We look forward to speaking to you again next quarter.

    感謝各位今天參與,也感謝各位持續關注西南航空。我們期待在下個季度再次與各位交流。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷線。