西南航空 (LUV) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q3 營收創歷史新高達 84 億美元,調整後 EPS $0.66,年增 500%,超過指引中位數,營運利潤率 5.4%,年增 4.8 個百分點,儘管燃油成本帶來 8.2 億美元逆風
    • 上修全年 2026 調整後 EPS 指引至 $2.60-$2.85,Q4 EPS 指引 $0.55-$0.80,Q4 RASM 預計年增 19%-21%
    • 市場反應:管理層強調本季為美國主要航空公司中唯一實現年增利潤率擴張者,並持續優於同業 RASM 成長
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • RASM 年增 21.6%,創歷史新高,超越指引高標,受惠於票價與載客量雙雙優於預期
      • 企業與商務旅客需求強勁,Q3 企業旅客人數年增 9%,企業營收年增 29%,多項產品升級獲得正面回饋
      • Rapid Rewards 忠誠計畫升級(新白金等級、國際合作夥伴、積分可兌換更多產品),預計進一步提升會員參與度與經濟效益
      • 產品創新與數位投資(如 Starlink WiFi、AI/ChatGPT 整合、Icon Lounge 休息室、座艙升級)持續推動客戶體驗與差異化
    • 風險:
      • 燃油價格高漲帶來重大成本壓力,Q3 年增 8.2 億美元,Q4 仍以高油價為假設
      • Q4 單位成本(CASM ex)預計年增 4%-4.5%,受維修、勞動力、準點率不佳及廣告費用集中等因素影響
      • 準點率(OTP)低於目標,短期內影響成本結構,需持續改善營運流程
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • RASM:年增 21.6%,創歷史新高,超越 17.5%-19.5% 指引區間
    • Q3 營收:84 億美元,創單季新高
    • 調整後 EPS:$0.66,年增 500%,高於指引中位數
    • 調整後營運利潤率:5.4%,年增 4.8 個百分點
    • 企業旅客人數:年增 9%,企業營收年增 29%
    • Q3 客運收益與載客量均創新高,客運收益率創歷史新高
  4. 財務預測
    • Q4 調整後 EPS 指引 $0.55-$0.80,假設平均燃油價 $4.55/gallon
    • 2026 全年調整後 EPS 指引 $2.60-$2.85
    • 2026 年資本支出預估 25-27.5 億美元,預計交付 67 架新機、60 架退役
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 忠誠計畫國際擴張與經濟效益提升的看法?是否考慮像 Air Canada 一樣釋放忠誠計畫價值?
      A: 管理層認為 Rapid Rewards 透過新產品與國際合作有顯著成長空間,現階段專注於提升會員價值與經濟效益,未考慮分拆或釋放忠誠計畫價值。
    • Q: 飛機資產出售對成本與現金流的影響?未來二手市場展望?
      A: 飛機資產出售為現金流帶來穩定貢獻,預期二手市場價值仍將維持強勁,未來幾年仍有大量 737 NG 機隊可汰換,相關收益將持續。
    • Q: Q3 RASM 超標主因?Q4 展望?
      A: 票價與載客量均優於預期,9 月份尤為強勁,企業與休閒需求廣泛增長,產品創新帶動客戶採用,Q4 需求與價格環境持續健康。
    • Q: 2027 年機隊交付與退役規劃?
      A: 2027 年新機交付數將高於 2026 年,退役數量也會增加,具體數字將於三個月後公布。
    • Q: 產品升級(如 Icon Lounge、座艙升級)對未來產品分級與高端市場的影響?
      A: Icon Lounge 與新高端聯名卡將提升忠誠計畫價值與高端客群吸引力,產品升級為整體生態系統加分,但不一定導向傳統頭等艙模式。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Southwest Airlines third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. My name is Gary, and I'll be moderating today's call.

    各位好,歡迎參加西南航空 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。我是 Gary,將主持今天的會議。

  • Please note that this call is being recorded. A replay of today's call will be available in the Investor Relations section of southwest.com. Following the prepared remarks, we will open the call for questions. (Operator Instructions)

    請注意,本次通話將被錄音。今日會議的重播將於 southwest.com 的投資人關係專區提供。完成事先準備的發言後,我們將開放提問。(接線員指示)

  • At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Danielle Collins, Managing Director of Investor Relations. Danielle, please go ahead.

    現在,我想把電話交給投資人關係董事總經理 Danielle Collins。Danielle,請開始。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Southwest Airlines third quarter 2026 earnings call. In just a moment, we'll share our prepared remarks, after which we'll move into Q&A. Joining me today are Bob Jordan, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Justin Jones, our Chief Commercial Officer; and rounding that out, Tom Doxey, our Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝。各位好,歡迎參加西南航空 2026 年第三季財報電話會議。稍後我們將分享事先準備的發言,之後進入問答環節。今天與我一同出席的有:我們的總裁兼執行長 Bob Jordan;我們的商務長 Justin Jones;以及最後是我們的財務長 Tom Doxey。

  • Before we begin, a reminder that we'll be making forward-looking statements which are based on our current expectations of future performance, and our actual results could differ materially from expectations. Also, we will reference our non-GAAP results, which exclude special items that are called out and reconciled to GAAP results in our earnings release.

    在開始之前提醒各位,我們將發表前瞻性陳述,係基於我們目前對未來表現的預期,而實際結果可能與預期有重大差異。此外,我們也會引用非 GAAP 結果,其中排除特殊項目;這些項目已在我們的財報新聞稿中揭露,並與 GAAP 結果進行調節。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Bob。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Thank you, Danielle, and good morning, everybody. Last quarter, we talked about the transformation reaching an important milestone with all of our major initiatives contributing throughout the entire quarter for the first time.

    謝謝你,Danielle,各位早安。上一季我們提到,轉型已達到一個重要里程碑:我們所有主要計畫首次在整個季度期間都持續貢獻成果。

  • Our third quarter performance and fourth quarter outlook both demonstrate that the earnings power we have built is durable. In the third quarter, we delivered an adjusted operating margin of 5.4%, up 4.8 points year over year, and that's despite an $820 million year-over-year headwind from higher fuel prices.

    我們第三季的表現以及第四季展望,都顯示我們所建立的獲利能力具有持久性。第三季我們交出調整後營業利益率 5.4%,年增 4.8 個百分點;即便如此,仍承受燃油價格上升帶來的年對年 8.2 億美元逆風。

  • We expect to be the only major US carrier to deliver year-over-year margin expansion here in the third quarter. After-tax return on invested capital was 11.3%, and we generated a third quarter record of $8.4 billion of operating revenue.

    我們預期在第三季將是唯一一家實現年對年利益率擴張的美國主要航空公司。稅後投入資本報酬率為 11.3%,且第三季營業收入創下 84 億美元的紀錄。

  • Adjusted earnings per share were $0.66, representing a 500% increase year over year and above the midpoint of our guidance range despite a less favorable fuel environment than we anticipated at the time of our last earnings call.

    調整後每股盈餘為 0.66 美元,年增 500%,且儘管燃油環境較我們上次財報電話會議時預期更不利,仍高於我們財測區間的中點。

  • Demand for the Southwest product remained strong throughout the quarter. Broad-based demand strength was evident across all geographies and products including managed business, leisure loyalty and co-brand. We generated record third quarter passenger revenue and achieved the highest passenger yield in our history, providing further evidence that our strategy is resonating with customers.

    本季西南航空產品的需求仍然強勁。各地區與各產品線皆呈現廣泛的需求強度,包括管理型商務、休閒忠誠度以及聯名卡。我們創下第三季旅客收入新高,並達成公司史上最高的旅客收益率,進一步證明我們的策略正獲得客戶共鳴。

  • We also delivered an all-time record RASM performance, exceeding the high end of our guidance range and costs that came in within expectations. Justin and Tom will take you through the underlying revenue and cost drivers in more detail in a moment.

    我們也創下歷史新高的 RASM 表現,超越財測區間上緣,而成本則符合預期。稍後 Justin 與 Tom 將更詳細說明背後的收入與成本驅動因素。

  • With the transformation complete, our work has shifted from building to optimizing the business and delivering the next set of customer experience improvements. Both are focused on unlocking the next phase of value creation through stronger earnings, higher returns and continued margin expansion.

    隨著轉型完成,我們的工作重心已從「建置」轉向「優化」業務,並推動下一階段的客戶體驗改善。兩者皆聚焦於透過更強的獲利、更高的報酬以及持續的利益率擴張,解鎖下一階段的價值創造。

  • We are already making meaningful progress, and I'm particularly excited about the investments we continue to introduce across our product offering as well as our recently announced loyalty program enhancements that will further strengthen the value proposition of Rapid Rewards.

    我們已經取得具體進展;我尤其對我們持續在產品供給上的投資感到振奮,同時也對近期宣布的忠誠計畫強化措施感到期待,這些都將進一步強化 Rapid Rewards 的價值主張。

  • As we announced at Media Day last week, we're evolving Rapid awards from a program that primarily rewards customers for flying with Southwest and the one that delivers value throughout the travel journey. Beginning January 1, we'll introduce new ways for members to earn recognition and rewards, including a new platinum tier, enhanced benefits along the path of status and additional opportunities to engage through our co-brand credit card.

    正如我們上週在媒體日所宣布的,我們正將 Rapid 獎勵從一個主要獎勵顧客搭乘西南航空的計畫,演進為一個能在整段旅程中提供價值的計畫。自 1 月 1 日起,我們將推出會員獲得認可與獎勵的新方式,包括新增白金等級、在晉升路徑上提供更強化的福利,以及透過我們的聯名信用卡提供更多互動機會。

  • We're expanding how members can use their points with international loyalty partnerships and partner redemption launching next spring and the ability to redeem points for ancillary purchases, including seat selection, to file later in 2027. Together, these enhancements make Rapid awards more engaging, more flexible and more valuable for our members while strengthening the role that loyalty plays across the Southwest experience.

    我們將透過國際忠誠度合作夥伴關係擴大會員使用點數的方式,並預計於明年春季推出合作夥伴兌換;此外,也將於 2027 年稍晚開放以點數兌換附加性購買項目,包括選位。綜合而言,這些強化措施讓 Rapid 獎勵對會員而言更具互動性、更有彈性、也更有價值,同時也強化忠誠度在整體西南航空體驗中的角色。

  • In addition, we continue the installation of Starlink Ultrafast WiFi on all of our aircraft available free to rapid rewards members with the fleet-wide rollout expected to be complete by this time next year. Additionally, we recently introduced the Southwest Icon lounge network. The name Icon celebrate Southwest's 55-year legacy in the people, moments and ideas that have made the airline what it is today from Herkelehers, Maverick people first hospitality to the customers and employees who continue to shape our story.

    此外,我們持續在全機隊安裝 Starlink 超高速 WiFi,Rapid Rewards 會員可免費使用,預計在明年此時完成全機隊部署。另外,我們近期推出 Southwest Icon 貴賓室網路。Icon 之名旨在致敬西南航空 55 年的傳承——那些成就這家航空公司的員工、時刻與理念;從 Herkelehers、Maverick 以人為本的待客之道,到持續書寫我們故事的顧客與員工。

  • Lounges are already under construction in Austin, Baltimore, Honolulu and Nashville with at least seven additional locations planned as we expect to welcome our first lounge guests in fourth quarter next year. The Southwest Icon lounge network will serve as the foundation for a new premium credit card launching in 2027.

    目前奧斯汀、巴爾的摩、檀香山與納許維爾的貴賓室已在施工中,並規劃至少再新增七個據點;我們預計在明年第四季迎接首批貴賓室來賓。Southwest Icon 貴賓室網路將作為 2027 年推出全新高端信用卡的基礎。

  • Premium cards have been among the strongest performing products in the co-brand market, and this gives Southwest an opportunity to participate in that segment for the first time. On the digital front, we recently became the first US airline to make flight shopping available through ChatGPT as more customers use AI tools to research, plan and ultimately book their travel -- this allows Southwest to engage earlier in the decision-making process and creating a more seamless path from trip planning the booking.

    高端卡一直是聯名卡市場中表現最強勁的產品之一,這也讓西南航空首次有機會參與該細分市場。在數位方面,隨著越來越多顧客使用 AI 工具來研究、規劃並最終預訂行程,我們近期成為第一家透過 ChatGPT 提供航班搜尋的美國航空公司——這讓西南航空能在決策流程更早期就與顧客互動,並打造從行程規劃到完成訂票更無縫的路徑。

  • Collectively, we continue to make a huge investment in our customer experience. And less than a year from now, we expect to complete our fleet-wide Starlink rollout, finish key cabin retrofit initiatives, including inseaPower, opened our first premium Icon lounges, launch a new premium co-brand credit card expand rapid awards with a new platinum tier and introduce new airline loyalty partnerships and redemption opportunities.

    整體而言,我們持續對客戶體驗進行大規模投資。而在不到一年後,我們預期將完成全機隊 Starlink 部署、完成關鍵客艙改裝計畫(包括 inseaPower)、開設首批高端 Icon 貴賓室、推出全新高端聯名信用卡、以新增白金等級擴充 Rapid 獎勵,並導入新的航空公司忠誠度合作夥伴與兌換機會。

  • We don't view these as stand-alone products. They are designed to work together as a connected loyalty ecosystem that expands the value of Rapid Rewards, strengthens customer engagement and creates additional opportunities to grow both loyalty and the economics of the program over time. While our efforts to optimize the business and invest in the customer experience are already producing encouraging results, they represent only a fraction of the opportunity we see ahead.

    我們不把這些視為彼此獨立的產品。它們被設計為可相互協同的連結式忠誠生態系,擴大 Rapid Rewards 的價值、強化客戶互動,並隨時間推進創造更多機會,同時推動忠誠度與該計畫的經濟效益成長。雖然我們在優化業務與投資客戶體驗方面的努力已產生令人鼓舞的成果,但這僅是我們所見前方機會的一小部分。

  • I am pleased to announce that we will host a Capital Markets Day in New York on March 2, 2027. We look forward to sharing our multiyear financial framework, the targets we are managing towards and the actions we are taking to achieve them.

    我很高興宣布,我們將於 2027 年 3 月 2 日在紐約舉辦資本市場日。我們期待分享我們的多年期財務架構、我們所管理與努力達成的目標,以及為實現這些目標所採取的行動。

  • We will also discuss plans to further strengthen Southwest's competitive position and unlock additional long-term value for our employees, customers and shareholders. Finally, none of what we have accomplished would be possible without our people. They are and always will be the heart of the Southwest brand.

    我們也將討論進一步強化西南航空競爭地位的計畫,並為員工、顧客與股東解鎖更多長期價值。最後,我們所完成的一切都離不開我們的員工。他們現在、也永遠都是西南航空品牌的核心。

  • We have accrued approximately $165 million in profit sharing year to date, reflecting our long-standing belief that when Southwest succeeds, our people share in that success. To our employees across the system, thank you for everything that you do for our customers and for each other.

    截至目前為止,我們已累計提列約 1.65 億美元的盈餘分紅,反映我們長期以來的信念:當西南航空成功時,我們的員工也會共享這份成功。致系統內所有員工,感謝你們為顧客、也為彼此所做的一切。

  • And with that, I will turn it over to Justin.

    接下來,我把電話交給 Justin。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thank you, Bob. To build on Bob's comments, RASM increased 21.6% year over year, exceeding the high end of our 17.5% to 19.5% guidance range and setting an all-time record. Notably, this performance was achieved while lapping the 2025 implementation of Bagbees and other initiatives, a headwind we flagged last quarter.

    謝謝你,Bob。延續 Bob 的評論,RASM 年對年成長 21.6%,不僅超越我們 17.5% 至 19.5% 財測區間的上緣,並創下歷史新高。值得注意的是,這項表現是在承接 2025 年 Bagbees 與其他計畫上線所帶來的比較基期影響之下達成的——這是我們在上一季所提示的逆風。

  • Passenger yields and volumes both exceeded our expectations during the quarter. September produced record RASMs in passenger yield, reflecting strong customer demand, sustained travel activity beyond the traditional summer travel season. Our performance provides tangible evidence that the actions we've taken to strengthen our network and product offering are working.

    本季旅客收益率與運量皆超出我們的預期。9月在旅客收益率方面創下RASM(每可用座位英里收入)新高,反映出客戶需求強勁,且旅遊活動在傳統暑期旅遊季之後仍持續。我們的表現提供了具體證據,證明我們為強化航網與產品供給所採取的行動正在奏效。

  • On the network, we're concentrating capacity in our strongest markets. including Nashville, Las Vegas, Orlando, Austin and San Diego, while reallocating capacity from lower performing markets. These changes are further supported from improved connectivity through redesigned banks in all our major airports, expanded Red Dog flying and partnerships that bring more customers into the Southwest network.

    在航網方面,我們正將運能集中於我們最具優勢的市場,包括納許維爾、拉斯維加斯、奧蘭多、奧斯汀與聖地牙哥,同時自表現較弱的市場重新配置運能。這些調整亦受惠於我們在所有主要機場透過重新設計航班波(banks)所提升的轉機連結性、擴大Red Dog航班,以及能為西南航網導入更多客源的合作夥伴關係。

  • At the same time, a science heating extra legroom offerings, more tailored offers and dynamic pricing are helping us serve a broader range of customers while better capturing the value of the network we have built. Importantly, these initiatives work together.

    同時,科學化的加價加大腿部空間方案、更具針對性的優惠與動態定價,正協助我們服務更廣泛的客群,並更有效地掌握我們所建立航網的價值。重要的是,這些措施彼此相互配合。

  • By concentrating our network where we can win and giving customers more choice in how they travel with us, we're attracting more customers, increasing engagement and improving the economics of those markets.

    透過將航網聚焦在我們能勝出的市場,並讓客戶在與我們搭乘方式上有更多選擇,我們正吸引更多客戶、提升互動程度,並改善這些市場的經濟效益。

  • The progress we're making is also evident among business customers. This quarter included 20 of the top 50 corporate booking days in company history. And two of the quarters, three months set records for unique managed business travelers flown.

    我們所取得的進展在商務客戶族群中也同樣明顯。本季包含公司史上前50大企業訂位日中的20天。而且本季三個月份中有兩個月創下搭乘之受管控商務旅客(managed business travelers)獨立人數的新紀錄。

  • Year-over-year managed business passenger revenue growth improved sequentially in every quarter of 2026, and we've seen double-digit growth in both new and reactivated travelers, reflecting strong adoption of our enhanced offerings. Turning to our outlook. The strength we saw in the third quarter continues to support our expectations for the fourth quarter.

    受管控商務旅客收入的年增率在2026年的每一季皆逐季改善,且我們在新旅客與重新啟用旅客兩方面都看到雙位數成長,反映市場對我們強化後產品的高度採用。接著談談我們的展望。第三季所見的強勁態勢,持續支撐我們對第四季的預期。

  • We expect fourth quarter RASM to increase 19% to 21% year over year. As in the third quarter, our outlook reflects lapping bag fees and other initiatives with approximately 65% of fourth quarter revenue already booked, demand remains healthy and broad-based.

    我們預期第四季RASM將年增19%至21%。如同第三季,我們的展望反映了行李費與其他措施的比較基期因素;目前第四季約65%的營收已完成訂位,需求仍然健康且涵蓋面廣。

  • Corporate demand continues to perform well, and the pricing environment remains constructive. With that, I'll turn it over to Tom.

    企業需求持續表現良好,定價環境也仍具建設性。接下來我把時間交給Tom。

  • Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Justin. Our cost performance continues to be a key differentiator Third quarter CASM ex increased 3.8% year over year on capacity down 0.4% within the guidance range that we provided in July. As Bob noted, we delivered a 5.4% adjusted operating margin and adjusted earnings per share of $0.66, above the midpoint of our guidance.

    謝謝,Justin。我們的成本表現仍是關鍵差異化因素。第三季CASM(每可用座位英里成本,不含特定項目)年增3.8%,在運能年減0.4%的情況下,仍落在我們7月提供的指引區間內。如Bob所提,我們繳出5.4%的調整後營業利益率,以及調整後每股盈餘(EPS)0.66美元,高於指引中位數。

  • Those results came despite fuel costs that were $109 million or $0.14 of EPS higher than the assumptions underlying our guidance three months ago. To me, that is a clear signal of how much our business has changed and the strength of Southwest's positioning within the industry.

    即便燃油成本較三個月前我們指引所依據的假設高出1.09億美元(或EPS高出0.14美元),我們仍達成上述成果。在我看來,這清楚顯示我們的業務已發生多大改變,以及西南航空在產業中的定位有多強。

  • Even with a significant fuel headwind, strong revenue execution and disciplined cost performance allowed us to expand adjusted operating margin by 4.8 points year over year and deliver earnings growth.

    即使面臨顯著的燃油逆風,強勁的營收執行與嚴謹的成本控管仍使我們的調整後營業利益率年增4.8個百分點,並實現獲利成長。

  • The initiatives we've implemented across the business are creating a more resilient earnings profile and helping us perform through a wider range of operating environments. We ended the quarter with liquidity of $5.6 billion and a gross leverage ratio of 1.9 times, within our stated range of 1 to 2.5 times.

    我們在全公司推動的各項措施,正在打造更具韌性的獲利結構,並協助我們在更廣泛的營運環境下維持表現。本季末我們的流動性為56億美元,總槓桿比率為1.9倍,落在我們所述的1至2.5倍區間內。

  • We also entered into a new $2 billion revolving credit facility maturing in 2031, replacing our previous $1.5 billion facility. Our investment-grade balance sheet remains a key strength particularly during periods of volatility. The management of the fleet is also a strategic competency and a differentiator for Southwest Airlines.

    我們也簽訂了一筆新的20億美元循環信用額度,於2031年到期,以取代先前的15億美元額度。我們的投資等級資產負債表仍是關鍵優勢,特別是在波動期間。機隊管理同樣是一項策略性核心能力,也是西南航空的差異化所在。

  • We generated $285 million in cash proceeds and recognized $96 million of gains on the sale of retiring aircraft and engines in the third quarter. With a large fleet and an ongoing retirement schedule, aircraft sales are a recurring part of our business. These assets are generally unencumbered and generate cash that allows us to reinvest in the business, such as purchasing new and more efficient aircraft, which is a highly accretive use of capital.

    第三季我們自汰役飛機與引擎的出售取得2.85億美元現金收入,並認列9,600萬美元出售利益。由於機隊規模龐大且汰役時程持續進行,飛機出售是我們業務中經常性的組成。這些資產通常未設定擔保,能產生現金,使我們得以再投資於業務,例如購置更新且更高效率的飛機,這是一種高度增益(accretive)的資本運用方式。

  • As part of our annual review process, we have updated salvage value assumptions for portions of the fleet to better reflect anticipated values at the end of their respective useful lives, which will reduce depreciation expense by a bit more than 10%. More detail on this topic is included in our third quarter 10-Q.

    作為年度檢視流程的一部分,我們已更新機隊部分資產的殘值假設,以更貼近其各自使用年限終點的預期價值,這將使折舊費用降低略高於10%。關於此主題的更多細節,已載於我們第三季10-Q。

  • We completed sale-leaseback transactions in the third quarter, which resulted in cash proceeds of $212 million and $118 million in gains, while we expect the majority of our future financing needs will be covered with unsecured or secured debt, maintaining a small portion of leased aircraft provides us additional flexibility and allows us to monetize aircraft in a strong market. We continue to anticipate total gains on sale from retiring assets and sale leasebacks in the fourth quarter to be broadly similar to those in the first and second quarters of this year.

    我們在第三季完成售後回租交易,帶來2.12億美元現金收入與1.18億美元出售利益;同時,我們預期未來大部分融資需求將以無擔保或有擔保債務來滿足。維持少部分租賃飛機可提供額外彈性,並使我們能在市場強勁時將飛機資產變現。我們仍預期第四季來自汰役資產出售與售後回租的總出售利益,整體上將與今年第一、第二季大致相當。

  • We expect fourth quarter CASM ex to increase 4% to 4.5% year over year on capacity of 3% to 4%. Unique cost drivers in the fourth quarter include the timing of 737-800 heavy maintenance events, costs relating to frontline labor, including health care, costs relating to on-time performance being lower than our targets, and a strategic decision to overweight advertising expense to the fourth quarter.

    我們預期第四季CASM(不含特定項目)將在運能年增3%至4%的情況下,年增4%至4.5%。第四季的特殊成本驅動因素包括:737-800大型維修事件的時點、第一線人力相關成本(含醫療保健)、準點率低於我們目標所帶來的成本,以及策略性決定將較多廣告費用配置於第四季。

  • Gains from sale are also forecast to be lower sequentially in the fourth quarter. We are anticipating year-over-year unit cost growth to moderate from fourth quarter levels as we move into Q1 and next year. We expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.55 to $0.80 based on an average fuel price of approximately $4.55 per gallon using the forward curve as of October 15.

    第四季的出售利益亦預估將較前一季下降。隨著我們進入第一季與明年,我們預期單位成本年增率將較第四季水準趨緩。以10月15日遠期曲線所示、每加侖約4.55美元的平均燃油價格為基礎,我們預期第四季調整後每股盈餘為0.55至0.80美元。

  • Full year 2026 adjusted earnings per share is now projected to be $2.60 to $2.85. For the year, we are planning for approximately 67 new aircraft deliveries and 60 retirements with net capital spending of $2.5 billion to $2.75 billion. The underlying trends in the business remain strong, and we continue to expect earnings growth as we move into 2027.

    2026全年調整後每股盈餘目前預估為2.60至2.85美元。就全年而言,我們規劃約交付67架新機並汰役60架,淨資本支出為25億至27.5億美元。業務的基本趨勢仍然強勁,隨著我們邁入2027年,我們仍預期獲利將持續成長。

  • And with that, I will turn it back to Danielle for Q&A.

    接下來我把時間交回Danielle進行問答。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • Thanks so much, Tom. This concludes our prepared remarks. We'll now open the line for analyst questions. Joining us today are numerous Southwest executives, including Tony Roche, our Executive Vice President and Chief Customer and Brand Officer, who will be available to address questions on our customer offering, product enhancements and Rapid Rewards initiatives. To help us manage time efficiently, well, please ask your one and two questions back to back at the outset.

    非常感謝你,Tom。以上為我們的預備發言。接下來我們將開放分析師提問。今天與會的還有多位西南航空高階主管,包括我們的執行副總裁暨客戶與品牌長Tony Roche,他將可就我們的客戶方案、產品強化以及Rapid Rewards計畫回答相關問題。為了更有效率地掌握時間,請在一開始就把你的一到兩個問題連續提出。

  • All right, Gary, we're ready for the first question.

    好的,Gary,我們準備好進行第一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Jamie Baker, JPMorgan.

    (接線員指示) Jamie Baker,摩根大通。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • I didn't realize Tony was there. So I think I'll ask a loyalty question. So -- or two loyalty questions. Obviously, there's speculation about international expansion and a potential wide-body order that thing. I'm curious had a frame at from loyalties perspective.

    我不知道Tony也在。所以我想我會問一個關於忠誠度的問題。或者兩個忠誠度問題。顯然,市場上有關於國際擴張以及可能下單廣體客機的揣測。我很好奇,能否從忠誠度的角度來框架這件事。

  • And we can keep this in the hypothetical. But is there any data that you've seen in terms of how loyalty economics improve when long-haul awards become part of the consumer equation, right? I suppose the other way to ask it is when you compare your current loyalty economics against those are the big three, do you think you take a hit based on the fact that you don't currently offer the same type of long-haul destinations.

    我們可以先以假設情境來談。但你們是否看過任何數據,顯示當長程航線的獎勵兌換納入消費者考量時,忠誠度經濟性會如何改善?對吧?換個方式問:當你把你們目前的忠誠度經濟性與三大航相比,你是否認為因為目前未提供同類型的長程目的地,你們會因此受到影響?

  • And then as a follow-up and maybe others will want to jump in, question that's being asked on every call this season so far if we look at Aeroplan valuation and what Air Canada is doing we can easily argue that your loyalty program is worth a figure that would at least rival, if not modestly exceed your current enterprise value. Bob has said nothing is sacred.

    接著作為追問,也許其他人也想加入討論,本季到目前為止幾乎每通電話都會被問到的問題是:如果我們看 Aeroplan 的估值以及加拿大航空(Air Canada)正在做的事情,我們很容易主張你們的忠誠計畫價值至少可與、甚至可能略高於你們目前的企業價值相匹敵。Bob 曾說過沒有什麼是神聖不可動的。

  • Actually, maybe he hasn't used those words. But clearly, Southwest is turning over certain rocks that we thought you'd never touch. Am I wasting time and at least pondering the idea that you could do something creative or Air Canada is or ask with loyalty?

    其實,也許他沒有用過那幾個字。但很明顯,西南航空(Southwest)正在翻動一些我們原以為你們永遠不會去碰的石頭。我是不是在浪費時間、至少在思考你們是否可能做些有創意的事,像加拿大航空那樣,或是在忠誠計畫方面做些動作?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Jamie, it's Bob. Yes, Tony has led all of our work on the wrapped awards, the changes we've had in loyalty and take that, and then I'll take the second one about the -- just the value of the program.

    Jamie,我是 Bob。是的,Tony 一直主導我們在「wrapped awards」以及我們在忠誠計畫上所做的變更等所有工作;我先讓他回答那部分,然後我再回答第二部分,也就是——關於該計畫的價值。

  • Anthony Roach - Executive Vice President, Chief Customer and Brand Officer

    Anthony Roach - Executive Vice President, Chief Customer and Brand Officer

  • Jamie, and thanks for the question. I think in short, -- we see a tremendous amount of upside to loyalty based on the initiatives and products that we've already announced and we see coming online. So if you think about them all individually, they have value, but collectively, is really where you see that accelerate.

    Jamie,謝謝你的提問。我想簡單說——基於我們已經宣布、以及我們看到即將上線的各項倡議與產品,我們認為忠誠計畫有非常大的上行空間。所以如果你把它們一項一項分開看,各自都有價值,但真正會看到加速的是把它們合在一起的整體效應。

  • And so the improvements to the day of travel experience that we're making, those are huge retention and acquisition levers for us. And then the hooks that we just made into the Rapid Rewards program really engage members on the more infrequent side of the scale all the way up to our most engaged customers.

    因此,我們正在改善的出行當日體驗,對我們而言是巨大的留存與獲客槓桿。另外,我們剛剛對 Rapid Rewards 計畫做的那些「hooks」(連結/機制),能讓會員從較不常搭乘的一端一路到我們最投入的客戶都更有參與感。

  • And so we're really attacking the Lloyd's equation on both sides of the spectrum there and have confidence that is going to drive meaningful upside. And we know there's an opportunity for us with co-brand spend before us.

    所以我們確實是在光譜兩端同時發力來解這個忠誠度方程式,並且有信心這將帶來顯著的上行。我們也知道,在聯名卡(co-brand)消費方面,我們面前還有機會。

  • The way that I think about them is you really see an acceleration as they all come online and form a puzzle together. And these program changes are happening between now through the end of next year with our initial set of lounge openings happening at the back of next year. So the way we see that is we think there's certainly traction as you get into that territory and beyond in terms of upside.

    我看待這些事情的方式是:當它們陸續上線並拼成一個完整拼圖時,你會看到加速效應。而這些計畫變更會從現在一路持續到明年年底;我們第一批貴賓室(lounge)開幕則會落在明年年底。因此我們的看法是,當你進入那個階段以及之後,在上行空間方面肯定會看到動能。

  • Your question on do our opportunity to extract value from members who are wanting to go international beyond where our network takes us today is exactly the thesis behind the recent partnerships that we've announced. It's giving those members the opportunity to take those aspirational trips, and we're just getting started from a partnership standpoint there.

    你問到我們是否有機會從那些想要走向國際、超出我們目前航網覆蓋範圍的會員身上萃取價值——這正是我們近期宣布的合作夥伴關係背後的核心論點。這讓那些會員有機會去完成那些具吸引力的夢想旅程,而就合作夥伴的角度來看,我們才剛剛起步。

  • So again, I take your question as the things we're talking about and some of the things that will be coming online, in particular with international options related to our partnerships, we see it as all upside. And I think you'll see that reflected in the time to come.

    所以再說一次,我把你的問題理解為:我們正在談的這些事情,以及一些即將上線的內容,特別是與合作夥伴相關的國際選項——我們都視為上行。我想你會在未來一段時間看到這點反映出來。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • And Jamie, on the second piece, I just want to say, maybe a congrats to Air Canada on their deal. And then I like the fact that it does illustrate the value of these programs, which everybody already knew we're focused on creating value period. We have -- as you've seen us continue to pursue the customer.

    Jamie,關於第二部分,我只想說,也許要恭喜加拿大航空完成他們的交易。我也喜歡這件事確實凸顯了這些計畫的價值——其實大家早就知道——而我們專注的是創造價值,就這麼簡單。我們——正如你看到的——持續追求客戶。

  • We have a long list of things that will be in place this time next year between full fleet -- first airline with Full fleet StarLink to a first icon, Southwest icon lounges to full fleet retrofits and power on and on and on. We have a lot of customer enhancements in place in addition to continuing to optimize all of the things that we put in place, all tended to drive value -- and we have more beyond that.

    我們有一長串事項會在明年此時到位:從全機隊——成為第一家全機隊配備 StarLink 的航空公司,到第一個「icon」(標誌性)西南 icon 貴賓室,到全機隊改裝、供電等等等等。除了持續優化我們已經推出的所有措施之外,我們也會落地許多客戶體驗提升;這些都旨在驅動價值——而且我們還有更多後續。

  • So the way I would look at this is we've got a lot of opportunity to drive value with what we have and the things that are on the table today. and continue to expand margins even in an environment of high fuel. We have, obviously, plenty of liquidity here at Southwest. So it's not something that we need to look at. But -- so it's not on the radar for us at all, but I do like the fact that it illustrates what we all know, which is these programs are extremely valuable.

    所以我看待這件事的方式是:就我們現有的資產以及今天桌面上的事項而言,我們有很多機會去驅動價值,即使在高油價環境下也能持續擴大利潤率。而且很明顯,我們西南航空的流動性非常充裕。所以這不是我們需要去考慮的事情。因此——這完全不在我們的雷達上,但我確實喜歡它所呈現的意義:也就是我們都知道的——這些計畫極其有價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Catherine O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

    Catherine O'Brien,高盛(Goldman Sachs)。

  • Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

    Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

  • Good morning, everyone. Thanks for the time. So my first question, I think, probably goes to Tom. Gains on aircraft sales have been a notable unit cost tailwind this year on top of solid cost control. Going forward, what's your view on secondary market aircraft values and how that will impact cost performance?

    各位早安。謝謝撥冗。我的第一個問題我想大概是問 Tom:今年在良好的成本控管之上,飛機出售收益對單位成本形成了顯著的順風。往前看,你對二級市場的飛機價值有何看法?這將如何影響成本表現?

  • And just to be sure, gains have been included and will keep being including guidance? And then second question, maybe to Justin, you beat the high end of your 3Q RASM guide. Can you talk through what maybe some of the key drivers of this better-than-expected guidance is -- was there some level of conservatism just given unprecedented pushes on fares here? Or were there markets or trends that we just really accelerated versus what you were seeing back in July. I'll stop there.

    另外確認一下,這些收益已經納入、並且會持續納入財測指引嗎?第二個問題可能問 Justin:你們第三季 RASM 指引高端也被你們超越了。你能否說明一下,這個優於預期的指引/結果背後的一些關鍵驅動因素是什麼——是否因為在票價出現前所未有的推升下,你們在指引上採取了一定程度的保守?或者是否有某些市場或趨勢,相較於你們在七月時看到的情況,出現了明顯加速?我先問到這裡。

  • Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Katy. Yes, I appreciate the recognition on cost. I do think the team has done a really good job there. And then as you pointed out, the aircraft sales are a nice supplement to that. And I think the management of the fleet continues really to be a strategic differentiator for us here at Southwest.

    謝謝,Katy。是的,我很感謝你對成本面的肯定。我確實認為團隊在這方面做得非常好。另外如你所指出,飛機出售也為此提供了很好的補充。我認為機隊管理對我們西南航空而言,仍然是一個重要的策略性差異化因素。

  • Maybe first and foremost, I think aircraft sales are a cash story. So you've got a ton of embedded value in the existing fleet in the order book, most of the assets are fully paid for as well. So what that means is that really the entirety of the purchase price is flowing through as an offset to CapEx.

    也許首先最重要的是,我認為飛機出售是一個現金的故事。因此,你在現有機隊與訂單簿中有大量的內含價值,而且多數資產也已經全額付清。這代表實際上整個出售價格都會作為資本支出(CapEx)的抵減而流入。

  • And then that gives us the ability to offset the purchase of new airplanes, which creates a pretty short payback really for buying those long-term assets as we go from 137 to either 175 or soon to be 150 seats. The fuel burn reduction and those sorts of things, it becomes a really quick payback when you take all that into account.

    接著,這讓我們有能力去抵消購買新飛機的支出;當我們把座位數從 137 提升到 175,或很快提升到 150 座時,購買這些長期資產的回收期其實相當短。把燃油消耗降低以及諸如此類的因素都納入考量後,回收期會變得非常快。

  • And as you know, we've got north of 400 737 NGs that are still in the fleet that will ultimately replace with MAXs. So this is something -- this fleet-related cash flow is something that will be with us for a lot of years to come. You'd asked about secondary values.

    而且如你所知,我們機隊裡仍有超過 400 架 737 NG,最終會以 MAX 來汰換。因此,這件事——與機隊相關的現金流——未來很多年都會伴隨著我們。你問到二級市場價值。

  • So my view is that those will remain strong, barring some significant macro change. Whether it's supply chain constraints, related engines or parts, new aircraft production, those sorts of things, I think those will keep the market strong there, and those issues are likely to be fully resolved for a little while.

    所以我的看法是,在沒有重大總體環境變化的前提下,二級市場價值將維持強勁。無論是供應鏈限制、與引擎或零件相關的問題、新飛機產能等因素,我認為都會讓市場維持強勢,而這些問題在一段時間內不太可能完全解決。

  • And maybe just to finish up on the accounting side. So we mentioned in our last call that we anticipated that the gains from sales would be higher in third quarter and that in fourth quarter, it would look more like the first and second. We're still, as you heard in my prepared remarks, still anticipating that to be the case.

    最後再把會計面補充完整。我們在上一次電話會議提到,我們預期第三季的出售收益會更高,而第四季看起來會更像第一季與第二季。我們仍然——如你在我事先準備的發言中所聽到的——預期情況會是如此。

  • And then maybe finally on the depreciation side, just to round out accounting -- you also heard us say that we've made some adjustments as we went through our annual salvage value review and really, the thinking there is just to try to match those up as best we can with where we think the anticipated values will be at the end of those respective useful lives.

    另外最後談一下折舊面,讓會計面更完整——你也聽到我們說,我們在年度殘值(salvage value)檢視過程中做了一些調整;而背後的想法其實只是希望盡可能把它們與我們預期在各自使用年限結束時的價值做最佳匹配。

  • And you've heard me talk about depreciation, maintenance expense and gain/loss that all those three things work together. Ideally, you want to have that in the depreciation line. So what this will do is ultimately reduce gains as we move into the future.

    你們也聽過我談到折舊、維修費用以及損益,這三者是如何相互配合運作的。理想情況下,你會希望把它反映在折舊這一行。因此,這麼做最終會在我們往未來推進時降低收益。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes, I'll take the second one. I always appreciate being able to speak to the outperformance of the RASM guide for sure. So thank you for the question. Largely, I'd say the upside is pretty broad-based passenger fares came in about $3 above what our forecast was. And -- but the more important thing is that passenger volumes also exceeded our expectations.

    是的,我來回答第二個。我一直很感謝能夠談談RASM指引的超預期表現。所以謝謝你的提問。整體而言,我會說上行動能相當廣泛:旅客票價比我們的預測高出約3美元。而且——更重要的是——旅客量也超出我們的預期。

  • September was particularly strong rather than seeing that post summer slowdown that you would normally experience, we delivered record RASM in passenger year in the month of September. We continue to see strength and manage business travel -- and it was not the result of one isolated item.

    9月特別強勁;我們沒有看到通常在夏季過後會出現的放緩,反而在9月創下旅客年度的RASM新高。我們持續看到強勁表現並管理商務旅遊——而這並非由單一孤立因素所致。

  • It was basically a combination of a very constructive price environment, super strong demand and then stronger business travel. And we saw really good customer adoption of our new products.

    基本上是多項因素的組合:非常有利的定價環境、極為強勁的需求,以及更強的商務旅遊。我們也看到客戶對我們新產品的採用度非常好。

  • And so I'd say that the beat was not because we misunderstood the comparison. It was because the underlying business performed better than we anticipated, and we continue to see that strengthen in the fourth quarter.

    因此我會說,優於預期並不是因為我們誤解了比較基期。而是因為基本面業務表現比我們預期更好,而且我們持續看到這股力道在第四季進一步增強。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    Duane Pfennigwerth,Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • I wonder if you could provide some early thoughts on 2027 total deliveries and retirements, I guess, this year, you've been pretty consistent on like the net fleet growth messaging I wonder how that looks for next year. And then, Tom, just on the depreciation expense that you flagged, when does that? Or when did that start?

    我想請你們分享一些對2027年總交付量與退役量的初步看法。我想今年你們在「淨機隊成長」的訊息上一直相當一致,我想知道明年會是什麼樣子。另外,Tom,關於你提到的折舊費用,那是從什麼時候開始的?或是什麼時候開始發生的?

  • Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks, Duane. Yes. So well, three months from now when we guide the year, we'll give more specifics. But we've just had the MAX 7 certified. And so I think the way you can think of 2027 is that we're likely to have more deliveries coming out of the factory than we had in 2026.

    謝謝,Duane。是的,所以——嗯——三個月後我們提供年度指引時,會給出更具體的細節。不過我們剛剛取得MAX 7的認證。因此我認為你可以這樣看2027年:我們很可能會從工廠拿到比2026年更多的交付量。

  • And then we've also talked -- you've heard us talk in the past that there are 27 MAX that were previously built that we'll start to deliver at the tail end of this year, we'll put them into service next year. So yes, you should think of 2027 total deliveries to be higher than 2026 and we'll give you more specifics in three months.

    另外我們也談過——你們過去也聽我們提過——先前已製造完成的27架MAX,我們會在今年年底開始交付,並在明年投入營運。所以是的,你可以預期2027年的總交付量會高於2026年;三個月後我們會提供更具體的資訊。

  • And then on depreciation, there was a bit of an impact this quarter, but really it starts for the full quarter in the fourth quarter. And you'll see more details. We'll have our 10-Q out tonight you'll see more details about the depreciation in the 10-Q.

    至於折舊,本季有一些影響,但真正以完整季度反映會從第四季開始。你們會看到更多細節。我們今晚會發布10-Q,你們會在10-Q中看到更多關於折舊的細節。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    Conor Cunningham,Melius Research。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe Justin, jumping back to Katy's question or piggybacking on that. Just on 4Q, you're obviously lapping a lot of the initiatives and you're moving more towards optimization.

    也許Justin,回到Katy的問題或延伸一下。就第四季而言,你們顯然正在對照(lap)許多既有的措施,並且更朝向最佳化。

  • I was hoping you'd be able to split out what you view as actual core blocking and tackling versus your optimization efforts that you're doing as well? And then maybe on the cadence of product enhancements, I mean you're obviously -- maybe I'll ask you like this. The -- how important are the lounges to further product segmentation in the years to come?

    我希望你能拆分一下:你認為哪些是核心的基本功(blocking and tackling),哪些是你們正在做的最佳化努力?另外,關於產品強化的節奏,我的意思是你們顯然——我換個方式問。未來幾年,貴賓室對於進一步的產品分層有多重要?

  • Like do you need those in place before you maybe push more into first class or something like that. That has been talked about a fair bit. So just -- I know everything is on the table. So just any thoughts around the importance of the investment in the infrastructure to product enhancements.

    例如,在你們可能更進一步推動頭等艙之類的產品之前,是否需要先把這些建設到位?這個話題被討論了不少。所以——我知道一切都在評估範圍內。想請你談談:在產品強化方面,對基礎設施投資的重要性。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, Connor, I think Justin maybe take the first one, Tony, take the second piece on just thinking about lounges and co-brand, the new premium card.

    是的,Connor,我想第一部分可能請Justin回答;第二部分請Tony談談,主要是貴賓室與聯名卡,以及新的高端卡。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. happy to. Yes, fourth quarter, just talk a little bit about the trends from Q3 into Q4. And the fourth quarter outlook remains exceptionally strong. from a unit revenue growth basically, we have about 65% of the fourth quarter revenue booked and demand remains healthy across the board.

    好的,很樂意。是的,第四季,我先談一下從第三季到第四季的趨勢。第四季展望仍然異常強勁。就單位營收成長而言,我們第四季約有65%的營收已完成預訂,整體需求仍然健康。

  • Corporate demand continues to perform well, and the pricing environment remains very constructive. And so when we think about our guide, it's continued strength against the different capacity and year-over-year comparison.

    企業需求持續表現良好,定價環境也仍然非常有利。因此當我們看指引時,是在不同運能水準與年對年比較之下,仍呈現持續的強勁。

  • You asked specifically about how much of it is coming from the core business versus optimization. And I would say it's probably around two-thirds core business and then a third of it on the optimization side of things.

    你特別問到其中有多少來自核心業務、多少來自最佳化。我會說大概三分之二來自核心業務,另外三分之一來自最佳化面向。

  • Anthony Roach - Executive Vice President, Chief Customer and Brand Officer

    Anthony Roach - Executive Vice President, Chief Customer and Brand Officer

  • And to take your second question on the role of the Southwest Icon lounge network. The way we think about that is, obviously, we're going to be launching a new premium credit card that provides access into those lounges. And what the premium car does for our co-brand portfolio is twofold.

    至於你第二個問題:西南航空Icon貴賓室網路的角色。我們的看法是,顯然我們將推出一張新的高端信用卡,提供進入這些貴賓室的權益。而這張高端卡對我們的聯名卡產品組合有兩個層面的作用。

  • One, we have existing members and our card member base today that have a heavy amount of spend that this is just going to be a better product for them that will continue to consolidate their spend with our Southwest card. And so it's extends extracting more value out of the customers who are already that deeply engaged.

    第一,我們目前既有的會員與持卡人中,有一群消費金額很高;對他們而言,這會是一個更好的產品,並會讓他們持續把消費集中在我們的西南航空卡上。因此,這能從那些已經高度投入的客戶身上延伸並萃取更多價值。

  • It also just helps us be more relevant for customers that are looking for that type of experience on trips that they can't get from Southwest today. And so we see that the lounge network provides that halo benefit is certainly there, but really benefits and drives the co-brand portfolio as it stands today, separate or apart from any additional changes to the product that we can make.

    同時,這也能讓我們對於尋求那類旅行體驗、但目前無法從西南航空獲得的客戶更具相關性。因此我們認為貴賓室網路確實帶來光環效應(halo benefit),但更重要的是,它能在不依賴我們對產品做任何額外變更的情況下,獨立地強化並推動現有的聯名卡產品組合。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • And I think the only thing I would add to is that the majority of folks who are in have the card and are in the lounges, they're not flying first class. They're in the lounge with the card because they want to be in the lounge. And each of the things that we're doing, while they stack on top of each other to build a better and better experience and offering for our customer. Each one is additive. So you add full fleet Starlink installation.

    我想我唯一要補充的是:大多數持卡並在貴賓室的人,其實並不是搭頭等艙。他們因為持卡而進貴賓室,是因為他們想待在貴賓室。而我們正在做的每一件事,雖然會彼此疊加,為客戶打造越來越好的體驗與方案,但每一項本身都是增量貢獻。例如,你把全機隊Starlink安裝加上去。

  • Again, by this time next year, we expect a tailwind from that from all customers, certainly business customers, the retrofits, every seat having power, the larger bins the ability to have the beginnings of the lounge network. And as a reminder, we have lounges under construction in Austin, Baltimore, Nashville, Honolulu with more to come.

    再者,到明年這個時候,我們預期這會為所有客戶帶來順風效應,當然也包括商務客戶:改裝、每個座位都有電源、更大的行李置物櫃,以及能夠開始建立貴賓室網路。提醒一下,我們在奧斯汀、巴爾的摩、納什維爾、檀香山的貴賓室正在施工中,後續還會有更多。

  • So they're under construction right now. and the loyalty enhancements changes that we put into place, a new platinum tier that comes with a companion patch, which is super popular, new reward and redemption opportunities, the ability to redeem on loyalty airline partners to long-haul international spots in the world.

    所以它們現在正在施工。以及我們已經推出的忠誠度強化與變更:新增白金等級並附帶同伴票(companion pass),非常受歡迎;新的獎勵與兌換機會;以及可在忠誠度航空夥伴上兌換,前往全球長程國際目的地。

  • They all -- every time we add something, they stack together to build an overall better product offering and loyalty ecosystem for our customers. So we're not building to any one thing like first class.

    它們全部——每次我們新增一項內容,就會彼此疊加,為客戶建立整體更好的產品提供與忠誠度生態系。所以我們並不是為了某一件事(例如頭等艙)而建構。

  • So the way we look at that is -- is that something that makes sense for Southwest Airlines and our customers, is that the next best way to ensure that we can offer our customers something that they want and give them another reason not to travel on a competitor simply because we don't offer it. So while these things all stack together to build a better ecosystem for our customers. I don't see them as all building necessarily towards one thing.

    因此我們看待這件事的方式是——這是否對西南航空及我們的客戶有意義?這是否是下一個最佳方式,確保我們能提供客戶想要的東西,並給他們另一個理由,不要僅僅因為我們沒提供某項服務就改搭競爭對手。所以,雖然這些事情都會疊加,為客戶打造更好的生態系,但我不認為它們必然都是朝向某一個單一目標在建構。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

    Sheila Kahyaoglu,Jefferies。

  • Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

    Sheila Kahyaoglu - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask about just what's going on with your initiatives. It's resulted in average fares up 27% in Q3 with load factors flat implying pretty strong demand for your product, load factors as a contrast to some other people who reported this morning.

    我想問一下你們各項計畫目前的進展情況。這些計畫使得第三季平均票價上升了27%,而載客率持平,這意味著你們產品的需求相當強勁;相較之下,今天早上有些同業回報的載客率表現不同。

  • I guess what do you attribute that strong performance to? Is it Southwest attracting new customers following the introduction of extra legroom assigned? And maybe as a quick follow-up to that, could you talk about the buy-up trends been basic to Choice products and choice to extra leg room.

    我想請問你們把這樣的強勁表現歸因於什麼?是否因為在推出加大腿部空間的指定座位後,西南航空吸引了新客群?另外快速追問一下,能否談談從基本票價升級到 Choice 產品,以及從 Choice 升級到加大腿部空間的加購(buy-up)趨勢?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, I'll start with the first, and then Justin, if you want to take the second piece there, I really think it is all of that. So while fares have accelerated, certainly a lot herein -- and you've got to remember that while they're up, they remain below 2019 in real terms.

    好的,我先回答第一部分,然後 Justin,如果你願意的話再接著回答第二部分。我確實認為原因就是你提到的所有因素。所以,雖然票價確實加速上升,但你也要記得,即便票價上升了,以實質(real terms)來看仍低於2019年。

  • Our customers are continuing to respond. And we're seeing -- Justin said this, we're seeing that both in higher passenger volumes and in yield. So it's not -- those higher fares are not causing an erosion of volumes.

    我們的客戶仍持續做出正向回應。而且我們看到——Justin 也提到過——不論是在更高的旅客量或是收益率(yield)上都有反映。所以,票價提高並沒有造成旅客量的流失。

  • Certainly, a piece of that is just broad-based demand strength. Again, we're seeing demand strong across every geography, every product across the board, business leisure. But without a doubt, a piece of the demand that we're seeing is incremental and unique to Southwest Airlines because of the product set that we've introduced and this continuation of additional products that we've announced.

    當然,其中一部分只是整體需求面普遍強勁。同樣地,我們看到各個地理區域、各項產品、商務與休閒需求全面強勁。但毫無疑問,我們看到的部分需求是增量的,而且是因為我們推出的產品組合,以及我們宣布將持續增加的產品,而對西南航空而言具有獨特性。

  • Certainly, I'm convinced we are seeing outsized demand because of that. And we will continue to see outsized demand in 2027 as we implement the list that I just went through. So we don't see any signed at this point that fares coming up are eroding customer demand in any way, shape or form.

    我確信我們正因為這些因素而看到超出同業的需求。而且在我們落實我剛剛列舉的那份清單後,我們在2027年也將持續看到超額需求。因此,目前我們沒有看到任何跡象顯示票價上升會以任何形式侵蝕客戶需求。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. To the buy-up question, obviously, bias is dramatically above our historical levels. But overall, the way we look at it is we're optimizing the total customer revenue, just not a single buy percentage. Fair upsells plus danalone seating is a better way to think about the opportunity. And what matters to us is the total revenue production across fares and Cadia.

    是的。關於加購(buy-up)問題,很明顯,加購傾向(bias)大幅高於我們的歷史水準。但整體而言,我們的看法是要最佳化的是「總客戶收入」,而不只是單一的加購比例。把票價升級(fare upsells)加上獨立販售的座位(standalone seating)一起看,會是更好的機會評估方式。對我們而言重要的是票價與 Cadia 之間的總收入產出。

  • I'll give you a few examples. You might have some holiday dates where we've -- we've added more basic fares on there. So you might see a basic fare mix go up. But also on those days, you'll have more upsell because you're pushing higher into your fare structure. So it's really about just optimizing the entire customer value not just optimizing the basic fares.

    我舉幾個例子。在某些假期日期,我們——我們會在上面增加更多基本票價。所以你可能會看到基本票價的組合占比上升。但同時在那些日子,你也會看到更多升級加購,因為你把需求往更高的票價階梯推進。所以重點其實是最佳化整體客戶價值,而不只是最佳化基本票價。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Mike Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    Mike Linenberg,德意志銀行。

  • Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst

    Mike Linenberg - Research Analyst

  • Just in the context of some of the press reports about potentially bringing on wide-body airplanes, presumably that would need a reopening of a pilot contract. But maybe more specifically, would that also be required to bring on the MAX 10. And I'm highlighting the MAX 10 because you're obviously very proficient in flying the MAX 8. You're bringing on the MAX 7s.

    在一些媒體報導提到你們可能引進廣體客機的背景下,推測那可能需要重新開啟飛行員合約談判。但更具體地說,引進 MAX 10 是否也需要如此?我特別提 MAX 10,是因為你們顯然非常擅長營運 MAX 8。而且你們也正在引進 MAX 7。

  • The fact that there's been a focus to increase connectivity, maybe the MAX 10 would make sense in the Southwest fleet. So -- number one, do you have to go back and reopen -- or would that be -- could that be added by nearly through an amendment of the contracts?

    考量到你們一直聚焦提升航網連通性(connectivity),MAX 10 也許在西南的機隊中是合理的。所以第一,你們是否必須回去重新開啟——或者說,是否可以透過合約修正案(amendment)把它加入?

  • And then my second question is actually with respect to connectivity, the fact that your load factors were flat. We've been hearing from other carriers this willingness to trade yield for volume. I realize that your capacity growth was somewhat flat, so that may have helped it, but then we may have seen an increase in connections.

    第二個問題其實是關於連通性:你們的載客率持平。我們聽到其他航空公司表示願意以收益率換取運量。我知道你們的運能成長相對持平,這可能有幫助,但我們也可能看到轉機(connections)增加。

  • So maybe, Justin, if you can talk about your success on the connection front because I know that's been a real initiative for the company.

    所以也許 Justin,你可以談談你們在轉機這一塊的成果,因為我知道這一直是公司的重要推動方向。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. And I'll take the first one and Justin take the second. Just -- I just want to make sure that draw distinction between I've been very, very specific and direct that we are going to continue to follow the customer and the customer's choice in demand and give our customers more reasons to buy Southwest Airlines and fewer reasons to not buy Southwest Airlines when they would actually prefer us.

    好的。我先回答第一題,Justin 再回答第二題。我只是——我想清楚區分一下:我一直非常明確且直接地表示,我們會持續跟隨客戶以及客戶在需求上的選擇,給客戶更多理由購買西南航空、也更少理由不買西南航空——尤其是在客戶其實更偏好我們的情況下。

  • We just don't offer the product. So that's the guiding light here is the customer, not a fascination with any one thing. So the recent reports about Southwest is close to ordering wide-body aircraft. There's no credibility to those -- again, we just continue to evaluate products to add to the mix to attract and retain more customers.

    只是我們沒有提供那樣的產品。所以這裡的指引之光是客戶,而不是對任何單一事物的迷戀。因此,近期有報導說西南接近下單廣體客機。那些報導沒有可信度——同樣地,我們只是持續評估要加入哪些產品組合,以吸引並留住更多客戶。

  • But there's -- but that report was not correct. On the -- and Andrew, you check me here, on the other variance of the 737, specifically, it's really more of a seat -- I believe it's a seat count cap than it is a different fleet type.

    但——那則報導並不正確。至於——Andrew,你幫我確認一下——關於 737 的其他衍生型號,具體來說,我相信更關鍵的是座位數上限(seat count cap),而不是不同的機隊機型。

  • Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

    Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

  • Correct. And in fact, if we want to operate more than 175 seats, we'd go back to the pilot. The contract does open up next year likely. And so there's an opportunity there for the cycle.

    沒錯。事實上,如果我們要營運超過175個座位,就必須回到飛行員那邊(重新談)。合約很可能在明年重新開啟。因此在那個週期中會有機會。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. So it's really about the seats on the aircraft. It's not about the different variant of the 737. Obviously, we would have a big negotiation around a wide-body. But I suspect that adding another variant of the 737 is significantly easier.

    是的。所以重點其實在於飛機上的座位數。而不是 737 的不同衍生型號。很明顯,如果是廣體機,我們會有一場大型談判。但我猜新增另一個 737 衍生型號會容易得多。

  • And then Justin, you've got a lot of -- as we think about our capacity, a lot of great examples of how we're strategically thinking about capacity investments. So.

    然後 Justin,當我們思考運能時,你有很多——關於我們如何策略性地思考運能投資的很好的例子。所以。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. Yes. Well, again, just like outperforming the quarter, I love also answering this question about connectivity. Because as you noted, we have increased there significantly and we've also increased load factor. And September is a great example of that yield was up more than 20% year over year, and load factor also increased.

    是的,是的。嗯,再次強調,就像我們本季表現優於預期一樣,我也很喜歡回答關於連通性的問題。因為如你所說,我們在這方面已經顯著提升,而且我們也提高了載客率。9月就是很好的例子:收益率(yield)年增超過20%,載客率也同樣上升。

  • And now the composition of that has changed a little bit. We will see some load factor decline, but that's offset by connecting traffic growth, which actually highlights a pretty distinctive advantage for Southwest Airlines. So to talk often, you hear people talk about a point-to-point model versus a hub and spoke.

    而現在其組成結構有一些變化。我們會看到載客率有些下滑,但這會被轉機客流成長所抵消;這其實凸顯了西南航空一個相當獨特的優勢。所以你常聽到大家談點對點模式(point-to-point)與樞紐輻射模式(hub-and-spoke)的差異。

  • We're really unique in that we operate a point to point, which gives us incredible utilization and operational efficiency advantage -- but commercially, we build more like a hub-and-spoke model, which gives us all the value coming in from being able to take advantage of connecting traffic on top of and an extremely efficient operating model -- and when you combine those two, you see the exact trends we had, yield up, boat factors up, really good RASM results.

    我們非常獨特:營運上我們採點對點,帶來極高的機隊利用率與營運效率優勢——但在商業面,我們的建構更像樞紐輻射模式,讓我們能在極高效率的營運模式之上,進一步利用轉機客流帶來的價值——當你把兩者結合,就會看到我們呈現的趨勢:收益率上升、載客率上升,RASM 表現非常好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Tom Fitzgerald, TD Cowen.

    Tom Fitzgerald,TD Cowen。

  • Thomas Fitzgerald - Equity Analyst

    Thomas Fitzgerald - Equity Analyst

  • First question, just curious if you could level set and remind us on the incremental EBIT expected in 2017 from the current initiative that I announced at the last Investor Day, and then just a follow-up on loyalty, specifically as it relates to other revenue. I think that line item is up around 7.5%, call it, year to date.

    第一個問題,我想確認一下,能否請你們校準一下並提醒我們:在2017年,從我在上次投資人日宣布的目前這些計畫中,預期可帶來的增量 EBIT 是多少?接著再追問一題關於忠誠度(loyalty),特別是與其他收入(other revenue)相關的部分。我想那個科目今年迄今大約成長了7.5%左右。

  • And it seems like you're going to have a lot of momentum next year with the new credit card product presumably a big upgrade cycle. Is it fair to think that other revenue could accelerate further next year, maybe into the high-single digits or low-double digits? Any color on that would be really helpful.

    而且看起來你們明年在新信用卡產品帶動下應該會有很強的動能,推測會是一個很大的升級換卡週期。是否可以合理地認為,其他收入明年可能會進一步加速,或許達到高個位數甚至低雙位數的成長?如果能提供一些補充說明會非常有幫助。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Tom. On the initiatives, I mean, the two really big ones, of course, were bag fees and then the seat assignments, the extra agra seats. We've talked about going from $1 billion of EBIT in 2026 to about $1.5 billion in EBIT, again, for the seat side of it in 2027. We are still on track for that, if not ahead. On the bag side, that $1 billion that we had talked about for the bags, one -- that has tracked.

    謝謝你,Tom。就這些措施而言,我的意思是,兩個真正最大的當然是行李費,然後是座位指派,也就是額外的加大座位(Agra seats)。我們談過在2026年EBIT從10億美元提升到約15億美元的EBIT——同樣是針對座位這一塊——在2027年達成。我們仍然按計畫推進,甚至可能超前。至於行李方面,我們先前談到行李可帶來的那10億美元——這部分的進度一直符合預期。

  • And the one change, it's a positive change that we've had this year as bag fees increased a bit. It just stepped that up. So I would say we're tracking ahead for both of those. So those are probably the two big ones that we'd want to update on now. The second question will maybe answer just a little more generally.

    而今年有一個變化——是正面的變化——就是行李費略有上調。這讓它再往上墊高了一些。所以我會說,這兩項我們都走在計畫之前。因此,這大概就是我們現在最想更新的兩個重點。至於第二個問題,我們可能會用更一般性的方式再多回答一點。

  • We'll get into the detail of 2027 in about three months. But the things that you heard, really all of us talking about today, but specifically, a lot of what you've heard Tony talk about the focus on continuing to build on what is already a very strong loyalty program and a very strong partnership with Chase.

    我們大約三個月後會深入談2027年的細節。但你今天聽到的——其實我們所有人都在談——尤其是你聽Tony談到的很多內容,都是聚焦在持續強化一個本來就非常強的忠誠度計畫,以及與Chase非常強的合作夥伴關係。

  • A lot of the initiatives that we are now moving to and are in the process of executing on now relate to improving that loyalty revenue. And so yes, the focus will be there. But for specific numbers, we'll talk a little bit more at the Capital Markets Day and as we guide the year.

    我們現在正在推進、也正在執行中的許多措施,都與提升這部分的忠誠度收入有關。所以是的,重點會放在那裡。但就具體數字而言,我們會在資本市場日以及在提供年度指引時再多談一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citigroup.

    Citigroup 的 John Godyn。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Clearly, you guys are making a number of improvements domestically. As you rub up against the network carriers, the lack of international, both for loyalty, confer plan, but is also for corporate travel premium travel, et cetera, is like a point of differentiation and maybe a gap.

    很明顯你們在國內市場做了不少改善。當你們與網路型航空公司正面競爭時,缺乏國際航線——不論是對忠誠度(例如兌換/累積規劃)而言,或是對企業差旅、高端旅遊等而言——似乎既是一個差異點,也可能是一個缺口。

  • I see that you're adding alliance members, Air Portugal, Polish Airlines. But maybe we can just take a second to review the international strategy at large and does a more meaningful push of some sort have to happen? What would be the bottlenecks to making that happen?

    我看到你們正在新增聯盟成員,例如葡萄牙航空、波蘭航空。但或許我們可以花點時間回顧一下整體的國際策略:是否需要某種更有意義的推進?若要推進,瓶頸會是什麼?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. Let me just start just with some general comments and then Justin can add specifically around the international. I mean, let's just talk about head-to-head competition here. Yes, we don't have premium. We don't how long haul.

    是的。我先從一些一般性的評論開始,然後Justin可以就國際部分補充更具體的內容。我們先談談正面競爭。是的,我們沒有高端艙等。我們沒有長程航線。

  • We don't have long haul international. But just -- let's just look at performance. I mean, we're on a many, many quarter trend of beating -- outgrowing our peer competitors in unit revenue growth year over year, and I expect exactly the same thing in Q4.

    我們沒有長程國際航線。但——我們就看表現。我的意思是,我們已經連續很多、很多個季度,在單位收入年增方面都擊敗——成長速度超過——同業競爭對手,而我預期第四季也會完全一樣。

  • Despite the fact that fuel prices are up, and we're planning against fuel prices staying up in 2027 despite that backdrop, we see opportunities to significantly expand margins even in that environment. And you look at our demand performance, look at our loyalty program performance.

    儘管燃油價格上升,而且我們在2027年的規劃也是以燃油價格維持高檔為前提,即便在這樣的背景下,我們仍看到在該環境中顯著擴大利潤率的機會。你看看我們的需求表現,再看看我們的忠誠度計畫表現。

  • We're seeing very large increases in new members, record tier qualifications remuneration growth in I think Tony to 12% range -- and this is all without again, this outperforming premium and long-haul international.

    我們看到新會員大幅增加、等級資格達成創紀錄,以及報酬/回饋成長我想Tony提到大約在12%的區間——而這一切再次是在沒有高端產品與長程國際航線的情況下達成的。

  • So our revenue performance and certainly, our overall performance, expanding margins 5 points year over year in an environment where we had an $820 million headwind from fuel. It's hard to argue we are somehow underperforming because we don't have those products. I'll see all of that as upside in the future if we decide to pursue that.

    所以我們的營收表現,當然還有整體表現——在燃油帶來8.2億美元逆風的環境下,我們的利潤率仍年增擴大了5個百分點。很難主張我們因為沒有那些產品就 somehow 表現不佳。如果未來我們決定追求那些,我會把那一切都視為上行空間。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    Raymond James 的 Savi Syth。

  • Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

  • Maybe a first question, just dealing with one of the air show podcast, Andrew detailed what has impacted Southwest on-time performance, which I think Tom mentioned hurt CASM ex -- just curious and he had detailed -- Andrew had detailed the plan to address it I know that some of those steps go into 2027, but wondering if you can provide an assessment of how and if the solutions are having the hope for results here.

    第一個問題可能是關於某一期 air show podcast,Andrew詳細說明了哪些因素影響了西南航空的準點表現(OTP),我想Tom提到這也傷害了CASM ex——只是好奇,Andrew也詳細談到了解決方案的計畫;我知道其中一些步驟會延伸到2027年,但想請你們評估一下,這些解方目前是否、以及如何正在帶來你們期望的成果。

  • And then just for the second question, just a follow-up from Duane's question. As you think to 2027 and growth, how are you thinking about retirements next year?

    第二個問題是接續Duane的提問。當你們思考2027年與成長時,你們如何看待明年的退役(汰換)規劃?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Let me just -- I'll just start and pitch to Andrew on the cost question and then thinking about on-time performance. the -- our fourth quarter cost performance is up a little bit. It's really an outlier. We've got some maintenance events. They're really timing -- and to some extent, we've got some pressure from on-time performance that is -- I'll just admit it is lower than what we would like.

    我先開頭,然後把成本問題交給Andrew,再談準點表現。我們第四季的成本表現略高一些。這其實是個離群值。我們有一些維修事件。主要是時點因素——而且在某種程度上,我們也受到準點表現的壓力;我坦白說,這低於我們希望達到的水準。

  • We're performing well overall. We've got our best baggage numbers ever. We've got terrific completion factor, but OTP is not where we want it to be. And on cost from the fourth quarter those will absolutely step down into the first quarter of '27, and it'll step down into the full year 2027. But we are highly focused on on-time performance.

    整體而言我們表現不錯。我們的行李表現是史上最佳。我們的航班完成率非常出色,但OTP並不是我們想要的水準。至於第四季的成本,到了2027年第一季絕對會下降,2027年全年也會下降。但我們對準點表現高度聚焦。

  • There are improvements built into scheduled next year, beginning with the January schedule, that will improve on time, and that will have an improvement impact on our costs in 2027 as well. But just thinking about the specifics of all that we're doing to improve OTP, Andrew.

    明年時刻表中已內建一些改善,從1月的班表開始,就會提升準點,並且也會在2027年對成本帶來改善效果。但就我們為改善OTP所做的具體事項,Andrew你來補充。

  • Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

    Andrew Watterson - Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. Thanks, Bob. As you mentioned, the Wall Street turn overall, the seven metrics we're doing well on all of them except for the extreme delays, which is the 45, we're also doing well. So it shows you the difference in our performances in between that 14% to 45%. So it's -- it's a handful of minutes.

    是的,謝謝Bob。如你提到的,整體來看華爾街常用的那套指標,我們在七項指標中,除了「極端延誤」之外,其餘都做得很好;而在極端延誤(45分鐘)這項我們其實也表現不錯。所以這顯示我們的表現差異主要落在14%到45%之間的那段區間。也就是——其實只差幾分鐘。

  • We need to move back, not any problem with like larger disruptions, large disruptions, we continue to do very well compared to our competitors. And so some of the schedule, as Bob talked about, will be rolled out in January and beyond. But between now and then, we've made some smaller changes like report time for crews and otherwise, we want interior cabin.

    我們需要把表現拉回來,並不是像大型中斷那種問題;在大型中斷方面,和競爭對手相比我們仍然做得非常好。因此,部分班表調整如Bob所說,會在1月及之後逐步推出。但在那之前,我們也做了一些較小的調整,例如機組員報到時間等;另外我們也希望客艙內部(流程)能更順暢。

  • But two of the bigger ones that are actually going live in November is a change to our gate check process and our flight close process. And those are both process changes, and we have some technology changes for our ops agents to help them close the flight with the iPad done the aircraft not at the podium, so to speak because they can problem solve and be able to manage the last part of the turn because we start turn extraordinarily well better than ever, but it's that last a little bit.

    但其中兩個較大的項目,會在11月實際上線:一是我們的登機口託運(gate check)流程調整,二是航班關艙/關閉流程(flight close process)的調整。這兩項都是流程變更,同時我們也為營運代理人(ops agents)導入一些技術變更,協助他們用iPad在機上完成關閉航班,而不是在櫃檯前(podium)處理;因為他們可以在現場解決問題,並能管理最後一段周轉流程——我們的周轉一開始做得非常好、比以往都好,但就是最後那一小段需要改善。

  • So these changes will start going out in November and then also ramp up through when those schedules go live. So we've got a broad range of efforts, we think will bear fruit here November, December and into the first quarter.

    因此,這些變更會從11月開始推出,並在新班表上線前持續擴大推行。所以我們有一系列廣泛的努力,我們認為會在11月、12月以及一路到第一季開始看到成果。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Thanks, Andrew. And Savi, on your retirements question, again, we'll give specifics and guide deliveries and retirements in three months. But you should anticipate that going along with what I said to Duane earlier about a higher level of deliveries, we will also have an increased level of retirements next year, but we'll give you the specific numbers in three months.

    謝謝你,Andrew。至於 Savi 你關於退役(retirements)的問題,再次說明,我們會在三個月後提供具體數字,並指引交付與退役的情況。但你可以預期,配合我先前對 Duane 提到的較高交付水準,明年我們的退役數量也會提高;不過具體數字我們會在三個月後給你。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Wetherbee, Wells Fargo.

    Chris Wetherbee,富國銀行(Wells Fargo)。

  • Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

    Christian Wetherbee - Equity Analyst

  • You talked about loyalty, I think, here on the call a couple of times, but maybe you could frame where you think you are relative to peers in the space that there's an opportunity to close the gap or bigger opportunities as you expand your services?

    你們在這通電話裡提到「忠誠度」我想有好幾次了,但或許你可以說明一下,你認為相較於同業你們目前處於什麼位置?在這個領域是否有機會縮小差距,或是在你們擴展服務時有更大的機會?

  • And then I guess maybe on the corporate demand side sounds like it's quite strong. You've had a couple of quarters here with a lot of the initiatives. You get a sense maybe expand a little bit on what you're hearing in terms of feedback and what you think it might mean for growth rates going forward.

    另外我想,企業需求端看起來相當強勁。你們這裡已經有幾個季度推出了很多項目。能否談談你們聽到的回饋是什麼,以及你認為這對未來成長率可能意味著什麼?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes, I'll take the flat question. We again,as mentioned before, we think that relative to what the opportunity is, there's upside to what we're seeing -- the initiatives that we are rolling out lays out the plan for that. And again, it's really a matter of attracting certainly more customers into the program. Bob talked about the strength that we're seeing in the Rapid Rewards program as a whole. I mean new record growth numbers there.

    好的,我來回答前面那個問題。我們再次強調,如先前所提,相較於機會規模,我們認為目前看到的表現仍有上行空間——我們正在推出的各項措施已經把達成路徑規劃出來。而且,這確實主要在於吸引更多客戶加入該計畫。Bob 談到我們看到 Rapid Rewards 計畫整體的強勁表現。那裡的新客成長數字創下新高。

  • That provides a great base of acquisition into the co-brand portfolio and really, as you get into the Lounge network, the new premium card, we really see that as a way to accelerate the growth as we get towards the back half of next year. So we've -- we're clear and have been clear that there's upside here, and we think the initiatives really gives us a great plan to go and achieve that.

    這為聯名卡(co-brand)產品組合帶來很好的獲客基礎;而當你進一步看到貴賓室(Lounge)網路與新的高端卡,我們確實認為,隨著明年下半年到來,這將成為加速成長的方式。所以我們——我們一直很清楚、也已經說得很清楚——這裡有上行空間,而我們認為這些措施為我們提供了一個很好的計畫去實現它。

  • And on your managed business, I mean yes, we're seeing strong continued demand and managed business customers and that segment has continued to outperform the overall business and essentially flat capacity, business passengers were up roughly 9% in the quarter. Business revenues were up 29%.

    至於你提到的管理型商務(managed business),是的,我們持續看到管理型商務客戶的需求強勁,而該細分市場也持續跑贏整體商務市場;在運能基本持平的情況下,本季商務旅客約成長 9%。商務營收成長 29%。

  • And it's a combination of a whole series of things. I mean, obviously, it is our product enhancements. Our business customers are responding very, very well to the product options and changes.

    這是多項因素共同作用的結果。當然,其中包括我們的產品強化。我們的商務客戶對這些產品選項與變更的反應非常、非常好。

  • And I expect that to continue, given, again, the fact that we've got full fleet Starlink coming here by this time next year, we've got our lounges opening, so things that are important to all customers, but certainly important to our business customers will continue to come online at a very rapid pace in 2027, and I expect that to continue to fuel the growth and managed business.

    而且我預期這會持續,因為——再次強調——到明年這個時候我們將完成全機隊 Starlink 的導入,我們的貴賓室也會開幕;因此,對所有客戶都重要、但對商務客戶尤其重要的事項,將在 2027 年以非常快的速度持續上線,我預期這將持續推動管理型商務的成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So Tom, I guess I'd like a very big picture question. Like, obviously, like tons of changes this year, seeds, specs, gains, now depreciation, like it's obviously working like really outperforming RASM, outperforming CHASM, like I know we're not getting guidance today, but like just directionally, as we think about next year, like do you think we can outperform like industry again on these on RASM CHASM?

    Tom,我想問一個非常宏觀的問題。今年顯然有大量變化,座位、規格、收益,現在又有折舊——而且看起來效果非常好,RASM 表現優於同業、CHASM 也表現優於同業。

  • Do you think it's more -- were more in line with whatever the industry is going to do? Or -- do we need to, in any way, be cognizant of, oh, we've got tough comps, maybe we underperform, I don't think that's the message. But I don't know, how would you think about like one of those three outcomes?

    你覺得會更——更接近產業整體的表現?或者——我們是否需要在任何程度上留意,喔,我們面臨比較基期很硬,可能會落後?我不認為你們要傳達的是這個訊息。但我不確定,你會如何看待這三種結果中的哪一種?

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • I'll reiterate what Bob said a minute ago, we feel that even in a high-fuel environment, given all the things that we're doing with continued discipline on the cost side, all the great initiatives we have that are building revenue yes, we absolutely see a path to expanding margins meaningfully year over year even if fuel is high. And yes, I do think we can beat everybody else.

    我重申 Bob 剛才一分鐘前說的:即使在高燃油價格環境下,考量到我們在成本端持續保持紀律,以及我們所有能帶動營收的優秀措施,是的,我們絕對看得到一條路徑,能在年對年基礎上顯著擴大利潤率,即便燃油價格很高。而且是的,我確實認為我們可以勝過其他所有人。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brandon Oglenski, Barclays.

    Brandon Oglenski,巴克萊(Barclays)。

  • Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

    Brandon Oglenski - Analyst

  • So -- and Tom, maybe we can elaborate on that, how optimized do you guys feel you are in offering value for your products, meaning like the walk up from basic to a main fare. I'm sorry if that's not what you call your main fare. But -- and then thinking about like dynamic pricing of seat assignments and extra legroom, has that all been optimized in this environment? Or is there more to go there?

    那——Tom,也許我們可以再深入一點:你們覺得在為產品提供價值方面,你們目前優化到什麼程度?也就是說,從基本票價升級到主票價(main fare)的那個「加價階梯」。如果那不是你們對主票價的稱呼,抱歉。另外再想一下,像是座位選擇與加大腿部空間的動態定價,在目前這個環境下都已經優化完成了嗎?還是那裡還有更多可以做?

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I mean I would say that there's quite a bit more to go there, and that is exactly what we're focusing on to drive the value for 2027 that Tom just talked about. We've got a pretty unique combination at Southwest that doesn't exist anywhere in the industry.

    是的。我會說那裡還有相當多可以做,而那正是我們聚焦的重點,用來推動 Tom 剛才提到的 2027 年價值。西南航空(Southwest)擁有一個在產業中其他地方不存在、相當獨特的組合。

  • We have the leading position in many of America's largest travel markets, we have an incredible brand that customers know and trust and an incredible culture of hospitality. And now we're adding a much more sophisticated commercial engine around those strengths, whether you think about how do we think about merchandising different for the new products the lounges -- how do we think about that?

    我們在美國許多最大的旅遊市場中居於領先地位;我們有一個客戶熟悉且信任的卓越品牌,以及一個極佳的好客文化。而現在,我們正在圍繞這些優勢建立更成熟的商業引擎——無論你想到的是:我們如何針對新產品、貴賓室來做不同的商品化(merchandising)——我們如何思考這些?

  • How do we think about the loyalty program changes we have, all of those things are going to work in a combination. So again, going back to some of the things we're not trying to be one of the other airlines. We're taking things that have always made Southwest unique, and we're adding capabilities that we've never had before.

    我們如何思考忠誠計畫(loyalty program)的變更——所有這些事情都會以組合方式共同發揮作用。所以再次回到重點:我們不是要變成其他航空公司之一。我們是在保留一直以來讓 Southwest 與眾不同的特質,同時加入我們過去從未具備的能力。

  • And so we're just in the very early stages of that. And Tony and I probably have a list of 30 pretty quick hit things that we can do that can drive incremental value. A simple example is you can't even upgrade on some of the products yet using our rewards point.

    因此我們其實才剛處於非常早期的階段。而 Tony 和我大概列得出 30 個可以很快落地的事項,能帶來增量價值。一個簡單例子是:目前有些產品你甚至還不能用我們的獎勵點數來升級。

  • So there's dozens of things like that, that we're going to look at to drive value in '27.

    所以像這樣的事情有好幾十項,我們都會去檢視,以在 2027 年推動價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Andrew Didora, Bank of America.

    Andrew Didora,美國銀行(Bank of America)。

  • Andrew Didora - Analyst

    Andrew Didora - Analyst

  • I know sitting here in October, it's early to guide for '27, but just looking at 1Q, 2Q schedules currently set like 5.5% growth. You've been cutting about one point out of schedules the last few quarters.

    我知道現在是 10 月,要對 2027 年提供指引還太早,但就目前設定的第一季、第二季航班時刻表來看,大約是 5.5% 的成長。過去幾個季度你們大概每季都會把時刻表再下修約 1 個百分點。

  • So is the right way to think about the beginning part of next year in that 4% to 5% range or should we expect more significant changes just given where fuel is right now? And then my second question just for Tom, in terms of capital allocation. Are you still open to share repurchases here in this environment?

    那麼,對明年年初的正確理解方式,是落在 4% 到 5% 的區間嗎?還是考量到目前燃油價格水準,我們應該預期會有更顯著的調整?第二個問題是問 Tom,關於資本配置。在這樣的環境下,你們是否仍然願意進行庫藏股(share repurchases)?

  • I know you have $450 million remaining you're within your target leverage range, and it seems like you have a pretty deep pipeline of asset sales. So just some thoughts around capital returns would be helpful.

    我知道你們還剩下 4.5 億美元的額度,你們也在目標槓桿區間內,而且看起來你們有相當深的資產出售(asset sales)管線。所以如果能分享一些關於資本回饋(capital returns)的想法會很有幫助。

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Yes. I just take -- we're obviously not ready to guide capacity for 2027, but you've seen us be very disciplined here in 2026. Again, our full year is going to come in at about 1.2. And that discipline, and that's well below our peers and that discipline is at least a piece of why we are showing unit revenue and just revenue outperformance. As you look at 2027, though, it's all going to come down to a combination of many factors.

    是的。我先說——我們顯然還沒準備好對 2027 年的運能提供指引,但你已經看到我們在 2026 年非常有紀律。再次說明,我們全年將落在大約 1.2。這種紀律——而且明顯低於同業——至少是我們能在單位營收以及整體營收上展現超越表現的一部分原因。至於 2027 年,最終將取決於多項因素的組合。

  • Demand is incredibly strong, but what does demand look like? What does compete capacity look like? What's going on with fuel -- so we'll continue to manage in a dynamic way. The one thing we are not going to do though, we were not going to chase growth at the expense of returns or profitability. I promise you that.

    需求極為強勁,但需求的樣貌是什麼?競爭運能的情況如何?燃油方面發生了什麼事——因此我們將持續以動態方式進行管理。不過有一件事我們不會做:我們不會為了追求成長而犧牲報酬或獲利能力。我向各位保證。

  • And just it might be helpful if you just give a few examples of where we are -- we're being incredibly intentional about where we are investing capacity -- so just maybe just a minute on that.

    另外,如果你能舉幾個例子,說明我們目前的情況——我們在投放運能的地方非常有意識——所以也許花一分鐘談談這點會有幫助。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • Yes. I mean, to your point, we're not just going to grow. If you look at our fourth quarter capacity, and this is true for the vast majority of our capacity that's out in published 95% of our year-over-year seat growth touches the Southwest point of strength, meaning that we're flying into out of airports where we are the number one carrier.

    是的。我的意思是,如你所說,我們不會只是為了成長而成長。如果你看我們第四季的運能——而且這也適用於我們已公布的大多數運能——我們年對年座位成長中有95%觸及西南航空的優勢據點,也就是說,我們飛往與飛離的機場中,我們是第一大承運人。

  • And well over half of that growth is occurring in markets where the rest of the industry is actually reducing seats. So most importantly, we're seeing the economics support our strategy.

    而且其中遠超過一半的成長發生在其他同業實際上正在減少座位的市場。因此最重要的是,我們看到經濟效益支持我們的策略。

  • If you look at our 22 strategic focus markets, 18 of those improved operating margin year over year. So 18 of those improved. We had margin growth in those year over year. Two of them were essentially flat and only two declines. That's with the higher fuel environment.

    如果你看我們22個策略重點市場,其中有18個的營業利潤率年對年改善。也就是說,其中18個改善。我們在那些市場的利潤率年對年成長。其中兩個基本持平,只有兩個下滑。這是在燃油環境較高的情況下。

  • So for us, this isn't growth for growth's sake, as Bob just said, we're concentrating capacity behind our strongest market position which is improving the economics of those markets overall and it's building leadership positions that we believe can produce more durable earnings over time. So we're very disciplined in our approach to capacity moving forward.

    所以對我們而言,這不是為成長而成長;正如Bob剛才所說,我們把運能集中在我們最強的市場地位之後,這正在改善那些市場整體的經濟效益,並建立我們相信能隨時間帶來更具持久性的獲利能力的領導地位。因此,我們在未來的運能策略上非常自律。

  • Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

    Tom Doxey - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

  • And on the capital allocation side, we'll always go back to our framework. So we've talked about our liquidity target. That remains unchanged. And the combination of the revolver and cash and then the 1 to 2.5 times gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio, the debt ratio, we'll work within those guardrails.

    在資本配置方面,我們會一再回到我們的框架。因此我們談過我們的流動性目標。那仍維持不變。而循環信貸額度(revolver)與現金的組合,再加上總負債對EBITDA 1到2.5倍的比率(負債比率),我們會在這些護欄之內運作。

  • And so -- maybe one other thing I'll mention is going back to the fleet comments, knowing that we have the MAX 7 that's now been certified, and we feel that will be a great asset for our network. We are anticipating that we will have more deliveries as we are taking both the MAX 8 and the MAX 7 over the next couple of years.

    所以——我再補充一點,回到機隊的評論:鑑於MAX 7現在已取得認證,我們認為這將是我們航網的一項很棒資產。我們預期在未來幾年,隨著我們同時接收MAX 8與MAX 7,交付量會增加。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

    Ravi Shanker,摩根士丹利。

  • Ravi Shanker - Analyst

    Ravi Shanker - Analyst

  • Apologies if I missed this, but are you able to quantify the RASM uplift in 2027, specifically from the Rapid Rewards changes and the Start -- and second question is interesting with the Chad GPT integration, can you share any initial takeaways there in terms of response from consumers -- and Bob, how do you think AI agents will change how you distribute and your market position over time?

    如果我漏聽了先致歉,但你們是否能量化2027年的RASM提升,特別是來自Rapid Rewards變更以及Start——第二個問題是,關於與Chad GPT的整合很有意思,你們能否分享目前在消費者回應方面的任何初步觀察——另外Bob,你認為AI代理將如何隨時間改變你們的分銷方式與市場地位?

  • Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

    Robert Jordan - President, Chief Executive Officer, Vice Chairman of the Board

  • Ravi, I'll start with your first one. No, we haven't given specific numbers for 2027 RASM for those items. You've heard a lot of confidence from us about the benefits that these will bring getting to Starlink by this time next year, all the things that you've heard Tony talk about around lounges and all of that -- all of that we see to be beneficial and accretive, but we have not given specific numbers.

    Ravi,我先回答你的第一個問題。不,我們尚未就這些項目給出2027年RASM的具體數字。你已經聽到我們對其帶來的效益非常有信心:在明年此時前導入Starlink,以及你聽Tony談到的貴賓室等所有事項——我們都認為將帶來正面效益並具增益性(accretive),但我們尚未提供具體數字。

  • Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

    Justin Jones - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer

  • And I'll just address the question on the chat plug-in that we installed, First of all, it is just fantastic work by our technology teams to really go and explore in this area. We look at this very much as a way to explore how our customers are thinking about travel inspiration in that channel. It's very early.

    我也回應一下我們安裝的聊天外掛(chat plug-in)問題。首先,這是我們技術團隊在這個領域深入探索所做的非常出色的工作。我們把這視為一種方式,用來探索我們的客戶在該渠道中如何思考旅遊靈感。目前仍非常早期。

  • And so the numbers are quite small today to talk about any trends. But where things may go from a distribution standpoint in AI agents, that's exactly why we put a plug-in in place so we can get an early read and early learnings and continue to adapt based off where customers are looking to consume Southwest Airlines and moving forward.

    因此,目前的數據量很小,還不足以談任何趨勢。但就AI代理在分銷面可能的走向而言,這正是我們設置外掛的原因,好讓我們能及早掌握訊號、及早學習,並根據客戶未來希望如何使用西南航空的方式持續調整與因應。

  • So it's been a great expiration so far.

    所以到目前為止,這是一個很棒的探索。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Atul Maheswari, UBS.

    Atul Maheswari,瑞銀。

  • Atul Maheswari - Analyst

    Atul Maheswari - Analyst

  • Just one question in the interest of time. Tom, how are you thinking about free cash conversion and CapEx for 2017 and beyond as earnings hopefully continue to expand from here? We've seen -- on the operating cash flow side, we've seen meaningful improvements there as the overall profitability of the company has improved.

    基於時間考量,我只有一個問題。Tom,隨著獲利希望從這裡持續擴張,你如何看待2017年及之後的自由現金轉換與資本支出(CapEx)?我們看到——在營運現金流方面,隨著公司整體獲利能力改善,營運現金流也有顯著提升。

  • And then the flow from operating cash flow to free cash flow will largely maybe state the obvious, but largely depend on the quantity of aircraft that we're taking offset by the proceeds that we have as we're selling assets from our fleet.

    接著,從營運現金流到自由現金流的轉換,雖然這可能是不言自明,但在很大程度上將取決於我們接收的飛機數量,並由我們出售機隊資產所取得的處分收入加以抵銷。

  • So again, we haven't given specific guidance around the profitability for next year or any of the cash guidance. But that's the flow.

    所以再說一次,我們尚未就明年的獲利能力或任何現金相關指引提供具體指引。但大致的流向就是如此。

  • Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

    Danielle Collins - Head of Investor Relations

  • All right. Well, that was our last question for today. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and we'll see you next quarter.

    好的。那麼,今天的最後一個問題就到這裡。感謝各位的參與,我們下個季度再見。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

    本次電話會議現已結束。感謝各位出席今天的簡報。您現在可以斷線。