Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎來到切尼爾能源 2023 年第三季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製中。這次，我想把會議交給蘭迪·巴蒂亞 (Randy Bhatia)。請繼續。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com. Joining me this morning are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO; and other members of the Cheniere senior management team. Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow. A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix of the slide presentation.

謝謝你，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cheniere 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。今天電話會議的幻燈片演示和網路廣播可在 cheniere.com 上取得。今天早上和我一起來的還有 Cheniere 總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco； Anatol Feygin，執行副總裁兼首席商務官；札克戴維斯，執行副總裁兼財務長；以及切尼爾高階管理團隊的其他成員。在開始之前，我想提醒所有聽眾，我們的言論，包括對您問題的回答，可能包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與這些陳述中描述的內容有重大差異。我們簡報的投影片 2 包含這些前瞻性陳述和相關風險的討論。此外，我們可能會引用某些非公認會計原則財務指標，例如合併調整後的 EBITDA 和可分配現金流量。這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的調整可以在投影片簡報的附錄中找到。

As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners LP, or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc. The call agenda is shown on Slide 3. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights. Anatol will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach will review our financial results and 2023 guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.

作為我們討論 Cheniere 業績的一部分，今天的電話會議還可能包括 Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP) 的選定財務資訊和績效。我們不打算將 CQP 的表現與 Cheniere Energy, Inc. 的業績分開報道。電話會議議程如投影片 3 所示。Jack 將首先介紹營運和財務要點。然後，Anatol 將提供液化天然氣市場的最新信息，扎克將審查我們的財務業績和 2023 年指導。準備好發言後，我們將開始問答環節。現在我將把電話轉給 Cheniere 總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco。

Thank you, Randy, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review our third quarter results and improved full year 2023 outlook. Before we get started, I would like to acknowledge the tragedies of war taking place around the world. Our thoughts and prayers are with those whose lives have been and continue to be impacted by these devastating and heartbreaking events. These events are contributing to disruptions, risk, uncertainty and volatility in the energy markets around the world. International gas supply sources and the critical infrastructure, enabling cross-border trade have become focal points with risk to this supply and its access increasingly reflected in price and volatility across international gas benchmarks in recent weeks. As the operator of the second largest LNG platform in the world, stable and reliable operations at our facilities have arguably never been more critical than it is today. As you all know, ensuring stable and reliable operations at our facilities with safety as a foundation has been my central focus since becoming CEO in 2016. When I joined Cheniere just begun LNG operations, producing its first LNG cargo that February.

謝謝你，蘭迪，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，我們將回顧第三季業績並改善 2023 年全年前景。在我們開始之前，我想承認世界各地正在發生的戰爭悲劇。我們的思念和祈禱與那些生活已經並繼續受到這些毀滅性和令人心碎的事件影響的人同在。這些事件導致全球能源市場出現混亂、風險、不確定性和波動。國際天然氣供應來源和促進跨境貿易的關鍵基礎設施已成為供應風險的焦點，近幾週國際天然氣基準的價格和波動性越來越反映了其供應風險。作為世界第二大液化天然氣平台的營運商，我們的設施穩定可靠的運作可以說從未像現在這樣重要。眾所周知，自2016 年擔任執行長以來，以安全為基礎，確保我們的設施穩定可靠地運作一直是我的工作重點。當我加入Cheniere 時，剛開始液化天然氣業務，並在當年2 月生產了第一批液化天然氣貨物。

Today, we produce about two cargoes every single day. And during the third quarter, we produced our 3,000th cargo of LNG becoming the fastest LNG producer in history to achieve that milestone. I'm extremely proud of the work we do at Cheniere as a result of that work are providing tangible benefits in the lives of millions of people around the world. Our customers can take comfort knowing that my focus and the focus of my approximately 1,600 Cheniere colleagues remains on maintaining best-in-class operations to help ensure energy security for our 30-plus customers throughout five continents. Turn now to Slide 5, where I'll review key operational and financial highlights from the third quarter 2023, as well as cover another long-term SBA we announced this morning. We achieved successes across the Cheniere platform during the third quarter, generating consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.7 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of approximately $1.7 billion. We exported a total of 152 cargoes, an increase relative to the second quarter as we had lower maintenance in the third quarter.

如今，我們每天生產約兩批貨物。在第三季度，我們生產了第 3,000 批液化天然氣，成為史上實現這一里程碑最快的液化天然氣生產商。我對我們在 Cheniere 所做的工作感到非常自豪，因為這些工作為全世界數百萬人的生活帶來了切實的好處。我們的客戶可以放心，因為我和我的大約 1,600 名 Cheniere 同事的重點仍然是保持一流的運營，以幫助確保我們遍布五大洲的 30 多家客戶的能源安全。現在轉到投影片 5，我將回顧 2023 年第三季的主要營運和財務亮點，並介紹我們今天上午宣布的另一個長期 SBA。第三季度，我們在 Cheniere 平台上取得了成功，綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為 17 億美元，可分配現金流量約為 12 億美元，淨利潤約為 17 億美元。我們總共出口了 152 批貨物，較第二季度增加，因為第三季的維護工作較少。

As I just mentioned, we also produced our 3,000th cargo during the quarter and maintained our perfect track record of foundation customer cargo deliveries. These operational milestones are a tremendous source of pride for Cheniere and serve to further distance our reputation from the competition. Looking ahead to the balance of 2023, our forecast has improved slightly. And while we aren't raising our full year guidance to date, we are currently tracking to the high end of the $8.3 billion to $8.8 billion of consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion of DCF ranges. The improvement to our outlook is mainly driven by portfolio optimization activities the timing of some expenses to a lesser extent, from higher marketing margins than previously forecasted. Zach will provide more color on the guidance, but we have excellent visibility into the balance for the year and are confident in our ability to finish the year at the high end of the ranges. On the commercial front, Anatol and his team continue to build momentum for the SPL expansion project as we signed a long-term contract with BASF in August, early volumes under the offtake agreement will begin in 2026, ramping to the full 0.8 million tons with commercial start of the first train 7 of the SPL expansion project and extending until 2043.

正如我剛才提到的，我們還在本季度生產了第 3,000 批貨物，並保持了基礎客戶貨物交付的完美記錄。這些營運里程碑讓 Cheniere 感到無比自豪，並有助於進一步拉開我們在競爭中的聲譽。展望 2023 年，我們的預測略有改善。雖然迄今為止我們還沒有提高全年指引，但我們目前正在追蹤 83 億至 88 億美元的綜合調整後 EBITDA 和 58 億至 63 億美元 DCF 範圍的上限。我們前景的改善主要是由投資組合優化活動推動的，部分費用的時間安排在較小程度上是由於行銷利潤率高於先前的預測。扎克將在指導中提供更多信息，但我們對今年的平衡有很好的了解，並且對我們以高端範圍結束今年的能力充滿信心。在商業方面，阿納托爾和他的團隊繼續為SPL 擴建項目創造動力，我們於8 月與巴斯夫簽署了長期合同，承購協議下的早期產量將於2026 年開始，產量將達到80 萬噸. SPL 擴建工程的首列 7 號列車投入商業運行，並將延長至 2043 年。

This contract illustrates the rapid evolution of LNG into Europe as it's a long-term contract executed directly with an industrial consumer in Germany, which only a year ago, didn't have a single LNG import terminal. And I hope you saw earlier this morning, we announced our second 20-year agreement with Foran, building upon the SBA we executed with it in late 2021, that commenced earlier this year. Of the almost 6 million tons of long-term offtake executed year-to-date, over 75% of that annual total is contracted with repeat customers who clearly value their long-term partnership with Cheniere. Testament to the reputation and trust we have earned with our long-term customers. This foreign contract is for approximately 0.9 million tons will extend until 2050 and notably marks the first SBA tied to the second train of the SPL expansion, Train 8 as commercialization on the first train has effectively been completed. We are extremely excited about the market's response to the SPL expansion project and demand for additional capacity from Cheniere. Since announcing the project in February, we have signed nearly 6 million tons per annum of long-term contracts in support of the project and our best-in-class long-term contracted portfolio, all with investment-grade counterparties, and I'm confident we have more to do this year.

該合約說明了液化天然氣在歐洲的快速發展，因為它是直接與德國工業消費者簽訂的長期合同，而僅一年前，德國還沒有一個液化天然氣進口終端。我希望您今天早些時候看到，我們宣布了與 Foran 的第二份 20 年協議，該協議以我們於 2021 年底簽署的 SBA 為基礎，該協議於今年早些時候開始實施。在今年迄今執行的近 600 萬噸長期承購中，超過 75% 的年度總量是與明確重視與 Cheniere 長期合作關係的回頭客簽訂的。證明了我們在長期客戶中贏得的聲譽和信任。這份約90 萬噸的外國合約將延長至2050 年，值得注意的是，第一個SBA 與SPL 擴建的第二列列車（8 號列車）相關，因為第一列列車的商業化已經有效完成。我們對市場對 SPL 擴建項目的反應以及 Cheniere 增加產能的需求感到非常興奮。自二月份宣布該項目以來，我們已簽署每年近 600 萬噸的長期合同，以支持該項目以及我們一流的長期合同組合，所有合同均與投資級交易對手簽訂，我相信今年我們還有更多工作要做。

As always, we remain laser focused on developing that project to meet or exceed our disciplined capital investment parameters in order to deliver the world-class contracted infrastructure returns that our shareholders are accustomed to. While on the topic of return, Zach and his team continued to progress on our comprehensive 2020 vision capital allocation plan. During the third quarter, we paid down another $50 million of long-term debt. We bought back approximately 2.2 million shares for $357 million and we increased our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.435 for the third quarter. On Stage 3, we continue to equity fund that project, investing over $300 million during the quarter with a total of over $2.5 billion invested to date. Speaking of Stage 3, now turn to Slide 6, where I'm pleased to provide an update on the accelerated progress we are seeing. Since activities on the project moved more heavily into the construction phase a few quarters ago, we've indicated that certain of these construction activities were taking place ahead of plan as we are now over 44% complete overall across engineering, procurement and construction.

一如既往，我們仍然專注於開發該項目，以滿足或超過我們嚴格的資本投資參數，以提供我們的股東所習慣的世界一流的合約基礎設施回報。在談到回報的話題時，Zach 和他的團隊繼續推進我們全面的 2020 年願景資本分配計畫。第三季度，我們又償還了 5,000 萬美元的長期債務。我們以 3.57 億美元回購了約 220 萬股股票，並將第三季的季度股息提高了 10% 至 0.435 美元。在第三階段，我們繼續為該專案提供股權融資，本季投資超過 3 億美元，迄今為止投資總額超過 25 億美元。說到第三階段，現在轉向幻燈片 6，我很高興在其中提供有關我們所看到的加速進展的最新資訊。由於幾個季度前該項目的活動更多地進入了施工階段，我們表示其中某些施工活動提前於計劃進行，因為我們現在在工程、採購和施工方面的總體完成率超過 44%。

While we remain in single digits in terms of percentage completion of construction for the overall project, it's becoming increasingly clear that the project is tracking month ahead of the guaranteed schedule. I'm optimistic we'll be commissioning on Train 1 with first LNG production by the end of 2024 and forecast all 7 trains to achieve substantial completion by the end of 2026. We are extremely excited about the progress Spectra was making on State Street, we look forward to maintaining our accelerating progress in order to again deliver LNG to the market, well ahead of schedule, increasing our operating capacity again starting in 2025. On the earnings call in August, I mentioned Stage 3 was beginning to take shape, as the first structural still was erected in our Train 1 coal boxes that arrived on site. One can certainly appreciate the progress that's been made since then from the photos on this slide. All Train 1 coal boxes have been set in place structural steel installation is advancing and piping and electrical installation has commenced.

雖然整個工程的施工完成百分比仍保持在個位數，但越來越明顯的是，該專案比保證進度提前了一個月。我樂觀地認為，我們將在2024 年底前對1 號生產線進行調試，並首次生產液化天然氣，並預計所有7 條生產線將在2026 年底前基本完工。我們對Spectra 在道富銀行的進展感到非常興奮，我們期待保持加速進展，以便再次提前向市場交付液化天然氣，從 2025 年開始再次提高我們的營運能力。在 8 月的財報電話會議上，我提到第三階段已經開始形成，因為第一個結構蒸餾器安裝在抵達現場的1 號列車煤箱中。人們當然可以從這張幻燈片上的照片中欣賞到自那時以來所取得的進展。 1號列車煤箱已全部安裝到位，鋼結構安裝正在推進，管道和電氣安裝已開始。

With the excellent progress made to date, head count of over 1,500 personnel on site each day, and the One Team culture firmly established between Cheniere and Bechtel. I'm confident in the team's ability to maintain focus continue on the accelerated schedule to deliver Corpus Christi Stage 3 safely and ahead of schedule. With that, I'll hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you again for your continued support of Cheniere.

迄今為止，取得了巨大的進展，每天現場人員數量超過 1,500 人，Cheniere 和柏克德之間牢固地建立了「One Team」文化。我相信團隊有能力繼續專注於加速進度，安全提前交付科珀斯克里斯蒂第三階段。接下來，我將把它交給阿納托爾來討論液化天然氣市場。再次感謝您對 Cheniere 的持續支持。

Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. While the LNG market kicked off the third quarter with prices reflecting the relatively subdued demand of the shoulder season, unprecedented early winter gas procurement in Europe, coupled with threats of potential supply disruptions globally, resulted in increased volatility and higher pricing throughout August and September. Prices remain elevated relative to pre '21 as the market is still precariously balanced, sensitive to any sign of disruption given the lack of spare supply capacity in the system, which is expected to continue for the next few years. The proposed strikes at the Australian LNG export facilities, representing approximately 10% of the global LNG market, garnering significant coverage during the quarter as the market tried to gauge the scale and length of any potential disruption to global flows. Fortunately, these risks were largely inverted and LNG exports continued to flow through the end of the quarter.

謝謝，傑克，大家早安。儘管液化天然氣市場在第三季拉開序幕，其價格反映了淡季需求的相對疲弱，但歐洲前所未有的初冬天然氣採購，加上全球潛在供應中斷的威脅，導致整個8 月和9 月的波動性加劇和價格上漲。價格相對於 21 年前仍處於較高水平，因為市場仍處於不穩定的平衡狀態，由於系統缺乏備用供應能力，對任何中斷跡像都很敏感，預計這種情況將在未來幾年持續。澳洲液化天然氣出口設施約佔全球液化天然氣市場的 10%，而擬議的罷工在本季度獲得了廣泛關注，因為市場試圖衡量全球流動可能受到的任何潛在幹擾的規模和持續時間。幸運的是，這些風險基本上得到了逆轉，液化天然氣出口持續到本季末。

Nevertheless, even the threat of disruption led to significant volatility in LNG prices, which was further exacerbated by the about 48% decline in Norwegian piped gas to Europe in September following extensive maintenance at the brownfield and the (inaudible) gas processing plant. As a result, despite elevated storage inventories throughout the region, volatility persisted as TTF spot price has experienced some fairly significant swings throughout the quarter. The maintenance in Norway supported prices from early June, with July settling at $11.30 in MMBtu, while August settled over 25% lower at $830 an M, as Norwegian volumes returned only to rebound in September, which settled at $11.5 amid concerns around the Australian strikes as well as additional unplanned Norwegian maintenance. Still TTF prices remained at pre-Russian-Ukraine war levels during the quarter and continued to edge higher with futures settling October above $12 an M.

然而，即使是中斷的威脅也導致了液化天然氣價格的大​​幅波動，而在棕地和（聽不清）天然氣加工廠進行大規模維護後，9月份挪威向歐洲輸送的管道天然氣下降了約48% ，進一步加劇了這種波動。因此，儘管整個地區的儲存庫存有所增加，但由於 TTF 現貨價格在整個季度經歷了一些相當大的波動，波動性仍然存在。挪威的維護工作從6 月初開始支撐了價格，7 月份以MMBtu 計價為11.30 美元，而8 月份則下跌了25% 以上，為每MMBtu 830 美元，因為挪威的成交量在9 月份才恢復反彈，由於對澳洲罷工的擔憂，其成交量以11.5 美元計。以及挪威額外的計劃外維護。儘管如此，本季 TTF 價格仍保持在俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭前的水平，並繼續小幅走高，10 月期貨結算價高於每月 12 美元。

Meanwhile, JKM prices largely tracked TTF throughout the third quarter, ultimately settling September slightly below TTF at $11.20. However, more recently, JKM futures settled October higher at $13.30 due to the uncertainty around the potential industrial action in Australia as well as increased demand from China and India. Prices have since climbed further as indications of winter demand started to emerge towards the end of the quarter with JKM November trading around $14 to $15 an M. This is in stark contrast to Henry Hub prices, which averaged $2.55 an M during the quarter as inventories held above the 5-year average. These price levels continue to support the attractiveness of U.S. LNG globally. Unfortunately, threats of further disruptions in global gas markets remain ongoing, exposing key risks to an increasingly susceptible market that already lost 12 Bs a day of Russian last year. Furthermore, the recent lease at the Baltic Connector add to market apprehension highlighting the critical need for the development of sufficient capacity globally in order to meet elastic demand and ensure the security of supply globally for the long term.

與此同時，JKM 價格在整個第三季度主要追蹤 TTF，最終 9 月的價格略低於 TTF 至 11.20 美元。然而，最近，由於澳洲潛在罷工行動的不確定性以及中國和印度需求的增加，JKM 期貨 10 月收高至 13.30 美元。隨著冬季需求跡像在本季末開始出現，價格進一步攀升，JKM 11 月的交易價格約為每月14 至15 美元。這與Henry Hub 價格形成鮮明對比，亨利中心的價格在本季度因庫存而平均為每月2.55 美元保持在5年平均水平之上。這些價格水準繼續支撐美國液化天然氣在全球的吸引力。不幸的是，全球天然氣市場進一步中斷的威脅仍然存在，這給日益脆弱的市場帶來了關鍵風險，該市場去年已經每天損失 12 B。此外，波羅的海連接器最近的租約加劇了市場擔憂，凸顯了迫切需要在全球範圍內發展足夠的產能，以滿足彈性需求並確保全球長期供應安全。

Let's address the regional dynamics on the next page. During the third quarter and for the first time in 2 years, Europe's LNG imports were lower year-over-year. Imports were near 7% or 1.8 million tons lower in the third quarter due largely to the same fundamental reasons we discussed previously, including high storage levels, reduced gas use across sectors due to price elasticity as well as conservation efforts, plus increased renewables generation. EU gas storage levels continue to grow nearing full as of early October, while lower economic activity put downward pressure on both industrial demand and electricity generation. Demand for gas fired power dropped by nearly 20% in Europe's key markets amid renewable power generation, which was 12% higher year-on-year. As a result, the reduced gas storage fill requirements coupled with the lower gas demand year-on-year, more than compensated for the further reduction in Russian pipe supply and the extended maintenance in Norway, allowing Asia to reenter the market and pull some additional LNG cargoes from the Atlantic Basin, as shown in the upper middle and right charts.

讓我們在下一頁討論區域動態。第三季度，歐洲液化天然氣進口量兩年來首次出現年減。第三季進口量減少了近7%，即180 萬噸，這主要是由於我們之前討論過的基本原因，包括高儲存水準、由於價格彈性和保護努力而減少的各部門天然氣使用量，以及可再生能源發電的增加。截至 10 月初，歐盟天然氣儲存水準持續成長，接近滿載，而經濟活動的減少給工業需求和發電帶來了下行壓力。由於再生能源發電量年增 12%，歐洲主要市場的燃氣發電需求下降了近 20%。因此，天然氣儲存填充需求的減少加上天然氣需求的同比下降，足以彌補俄羅斯管道供應的進一步減少和挪威的延長維護，使亞洲能夠重新進入市場並拉動一些額外的力量。來自大西洋盆地的液化天然氣貨物，如中上圖及右圖所示。

However, the cross base on price spreads throughout the quarter were not wide enough to drive meaningful volume away from Europe towards Asia. Total LNG imports in Asia grew over 4% or 2.7 million tons year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by a rebound in imports to China and India as prices softened and high summer temperatures boosted spot purchases. However, lower imports across the JKT market largely offset the significant gains seen in China and other emerging Asian markets, as shown in the lower left chart. In fact, imports into the key growth markets of China and India were 21% and 27% higher in Q3, respectively. In China, gas demand picked up during the quarter, primarily due to the year-on-year recovery in gas-fired power generation, following a drought that reduced hydro generation. Despite the higher demand, gas demand recovery in the industrial sector remains subdued, with consumption still below 2021 levels. Long-term fundamentals remain bullish for the Chinese market due to favorable policy targets and a massive gas infrastructure build-out as we described in previous calls.

然而，整個季度價差的交叉基數不足以推動大量交易量從歐洲流向亞洲。第三季度，亞洲液化天然氣進口總量年增超過 4%，即 270 萬噸，原因是價格疲軟和夏季高溫提振了現貨採購，中國和印度的進口量出現反彈。然而，JKT 市場進口量的下降很大程度上抵消了中國和其他亞洲新興市場的大幅成長，如左下圖所示。事實上，第三季中國和印度這兩個主要成長市場的進口量分別成長了 21% 和 27%。在中國，天然氣需求在本季有所回升，主要是由於乾旱導致水力發電量減少後燃氣發電量較去年同期復甦。儘管需求增加，工業部門的天然氣需求復甦仍然疲軟，消費量仍低於 2021 年的水準。正如我們在先前的電話會議中所述，由於有利的政策目標和大規模的天然氣基礎設施建設，中國市場的長期基本面仍然看漲。

This year alone, China has added 9 million tons of regas capacity across three new terminals, bringing the total to 110 MTPA with another 95 MTPA under construction. Similarly, the country continues to expand its gas-fired power generation fleet with 46 gigawatts currently under construction on top of the existing 121 gigawatts. In India, it prolonged the heat wave and below average rainfall during the annual monsoon season increased the region's call in LNG. India reported 6 million tons in the third quarter. 1.3 million tons higher year-on-year as spot LNG prices moderated, incentivizing downstream gas use in the fertilizer and power sectors. Gas-fired generation was up 48% year-on-year in July and August, leading domestic players to issue tenders for cargoes to feed power demand. Furthermore, the new 6.5 MTPA Dhamra LNG terminal, the first in India East Coast ramped up to import 10 cargoes since starting commercial operations in May, ending to total imports in the quarter. The terminal which raised the country's regas capacity to 44 MTPA should enhance gas availability in Northeastern India, as connections to the grid improved, making gas more accessible to city gas distributors as well as refineries and fertilizer facilities.

光是今年，中國三個新碼頭的再氣化能力就增加了 900 萬噸，使總再氣化能力達到 110 MTPA，另有 95 MTPA 正在建設中。同樣，該國繼續擴大其燃氣發電群，在現有 121 吉瓦的基礎上，目前正在建造 46 吉瓦。在印度，熱浪持續時間延長，每年季風季節降雨量低於平均水平，增加了該地區液化天然氣的需求量。印度報告第三季產量為 600 萬噸。由於液化天然氣現貨價格放緩，刺激了下游化肥和電力產業的天然氣使用，比去年同期增加 130 萬噸。 7月和8月燃氣發電量年增48%，導致國內企業紛紛招標以滿足電力需求。此外，印度東海岸第一個 6.5 MTPA 達姆拉液化天然氣接收站自 5 月開始商業營運以來已進口了 10 批貨物，本季進口總量結束。該終端將印度的再氣化能力提高到 44 MTPA，隨著電網連接的改善，將提高印度東北部的天然氣供應量，使城市天然氣分銷商以及煉油廠和化肥設施更容易獲得天然氣。

India's regas capacity is expected to reach 63 million tons, and that, along with the additional 11,000 kilometers of pipelines under development could make the country a top 3 LNG importer before 2040. In contrast, JKT imports dropped 11% or 3.7 million tons during the quarter, following previous declines and offsetting much of the gains in Asia. Year-to-date, JKT imports are 7.5 million tons lower versus last year, due largely to increased nuclear availability in Japan and Korea. Structural factor we have discussed previously. Japan's nuclear availability reached its highest level since the Fukushima disaster, and we expect this to present headwinds for gas power generation and LNG demand growth going forward. Accordingly, Japan's long-term gas demand is expected to decline gradually through 2040. Let's now elaborate on our updated expectations for long-term supply and demand on the next slide. As noted previously, the energy trilemma, especially with the market's heightened focus on long-term energy security has led to significant long-term LNG contracting in the past 18 or so months. These contracts signal the need for further investment in liquefaction capacity and serve to underpin some of the recent project FIDs.

印度的再氣化能力預計將達到6,300 萬噸，再加上正在開發的額外11,000 公里管道，該國可能會在2040 年之前成為三大液化天然氣進口國。相比之下，JKT 進口量在此期間下降了11%，即370 萬噸。繼先前的下滑之後，亞洲市場的大部分漲幅被抵消。今年迄今為止，JKT 進口量比去年減少了 750 萬噸，這主要是由於日本和韓國的核子可用性增加。我們之前討論過結構性因素。日本的核電利用率達到了福島災難以來的最高水平，我們預計這將對未來的天然氣發電和液化天然氣需求成長帶來阻力。因此，預計到 2040 年，日本的長期天然氣需求將逐漸下降。現在讓我們在下一張投影片上詳細說明我們對長期供需的最新預期。如前所述，能源三難困境，尤其是市場對長期能源安全的高度關注，導致在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡出現了大量的長期液化天然氣合約。這些合約表明需要進一步投資液化能力，並為最近的一些項目最終投資決定提供支援。

As a result, we now see a significant amount of new capacity currently under construction. While this is expected to help reverse the systemic market tightening that has resulted from the curtailment of Russian volumes over the last 2 years, we believe that further LNG supply is needed to fully meet demand in 2028 and beyond which we expect to be fulfilled with some of the proposed pre-FID export projects, of course, including our own expansion plans at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. The concentration of FID is taking place this year next along with the start of delayed projects in East and West Africa, should help make LNG more accessible to price-sensitive markets while also making the industry more resilient in the fact base of supply disruptions or major geopolitical upsets, such as those threatening the market balances today. And just as liquefaction development has been active this year, the same is true for the regas side of the business.

因此，我們現在看到大量新產能正在建設中。雖然這預計將有助於扭轉因過去兩年俄羅斯產量削減而導致的系統性市場緊縮，但我們認為，需要進一步供應液化天然氣才能完全滿足2028 年及之後的需求，我們預計將透過一些供應來滿足這一需求。當然，包括我們在薩賓帕斯和科珀斯克里斯蒂的擴建計劃。 FID 的集中將於今年進行，同時東非和西非推遲項目的啟動，應有助於使液化天然氣更容易進入價格敏感的市場，同時也使該行業在供應中斷或重大事件的事實基礎上更具彈性。地緣政治動盪，例如今天威脅市場平衡的動盪。正如今年液化開發一直活躍一樣，再氣化業務也是如此。

Market players continue to develop import capacity across Europe and Asia which in total is expected to increase by 50% by 2030. We continue to forecast healthy demand for LNG over the coming decades with Europe sustaining its growth through the midterm and Asia driving future growth over the long term. As we've discussed before, we expect South and Southeast Asia as well as China to drive future demand growth as LNG plays a critical role in the economic prosperity, energy availability and decarbonization efforts in these regions. Overall, we estimate that by 2040, more than 130 MTPA of additional supplies needed beyond what is under construction today, which is due in part to the decline in production from legacy projects where feedstock availability and upstream developments appear limited going forward. For all these reasons, we believe overall market conditions remain constructive for Gulf Coast LNG and at Cheniere, we remain resolute in building on the commercial successes of recent years to support our capacity growth.

市場參與者繼續發展歐洲和亞洲的進口能力，預計到 2030 年總計將增加 50%。我們繼續預測未來幾十年對液化天然氣的健康需求，歐洲將在中期保持成長，亞洲將推動未來成長的長期來看。正如我們之前討論的，我們預計南亞和東南亞以及中國將推動未來的需求成長，因為液化天然氣在這些地區的經濟繁榮、能源供應和脫碳工作中發揮關鍵作用。總體而言，我們估計，到2040 年，除了目前正在建造的項目外，還需要超過130 MTPA 的額外供應，部分原因是遺留項目的產量下降，這些項目的原料供應和上游開發似乎在未來受到限制。基於所有這些原因，我們相信整體市場狀況對墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣仍然具有建設性，而在切尼爾，我們仍然堅定地在近年來的商業成功的基礎上再接再厲，以支持我們的產能增長。

In 2023 alone, we have signed almost 6 million tonnes per annum with customers across Europe and Asia including today's announcement of our second 20-year SBA with Foran. This contract could very well extend into the second half of this century. Further evidencing our customers and the market's conviction in the long-term role of natural gas in the global energy mix and the need for further development of LNG capacity globally. With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

光是 2023 年，我們就與歐洲和亞洲的客戶簽訂了每年近 600 萬噸的合同，包括今天宣布與 Foran 簽署的第二個 20 年 SBA。這份合約很可能延續到本世紀下半葉。進一步證明我們的客戶和市場對天然氣在全球能源結構中的長期作用以及全球液化天然氣產能進一步發展的需求的信念。這樣，我會將電話轉給扎克，以審查我們的財務表現和指導。

Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our third quarter 2023 results and key financial accomplishments, which are the result of our team's commitment to operational excellence and financial discipline, the long-term outlook as we continue to deliver upon our stated objectives of supplying the world with much needed LNG, while creating long-term value for our stakeholders. Turn to Slide 12. For the third quarter, we generated net income of approximately $1.7 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.7 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion. Our third quarter results continue to reflect a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts with less volumes being sold into short-term markets as well as the further moderation of international gas prices relative to last year.

謝謝阿納托爾，大家早安。我很高興今天在這裡回顧我們 2023 年第三季的業績和主要財務成就，這是我們團隊致力於卓越營運和財務紀律的結果，也是我們繼續實現既定目標的長期前景為世界提供急需的液化天然氣，同時為我們的利害關係人創造長期價值。請參閱投影片 12。第三季度，我們的淨利潤約為 17 億美元，綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為 17 億美元，可分配現金流量約 12 億美元。我們第三季的業績繼續反映了我們根據長期合約銷售的液化天然氣比例較高，短期市場銷售量減少，以及國際天然氣價格相對於去年進一步放緩。

Once again, these impacts were partially offset by certain portfolio optimization activities, upstream and downstream of our facilities. During the third quarter, we recognized an income 555 TBtu of physical LNG, including 545 TBtu from our projects and 10 TBtu sourced from third parties. Approximately 89% of these LNG volumes recognized in income were sold under long-term SPA or IPM agreements with initial terms greater than 10 years. As a reminder, our reported net income is impacted by the unrealized noncash derivative impacts to our revenue and cost of sales line items, which are primarily related to the mismatch of accounting methodology for the purchase of natural gas and the corresponding sale of LNG under our long-term IPM agreements. The decline in international gas price curves quarter-over-quarter led to a lower mark-to-market valuation of the future liabilities associated with these agreements, increasing our net income.

這些影響再次被我們設施上游和下游的某些投資組合最佳化活動所部分抵消。第三季度，我們確認了 555 TBtu 的實體液化天然氣收入，其中 545 TBtu 來自我們的項目，10 TBtu 來自第三方。計入收入的液化天然氣銷量中約 89% 是根據初始期限超過 10 年的長期 SPA 或 IPM 協議出售的。提醒一下，我們報告的淨利潤受到未實現的非現金衍生品對我們的收入和銷售成本的影響，這主要與我們購買天然氣和相應銷售液化天然氣的會計方法不匹配有關。長期 IPM 協議。國際天然氣價格曲線環比下降導致與這些協議相關的未來負債的按市值計價較低，從而增加了我們的淨利潤。

With today's results, we have earned cumulative net income of approximately $12.4 billion for the trailing 12 months and have now reported positive net income on a quarterly and cumulative trailing 4-quarter basis, four quarters in a row. Throughout the quarter, we continued to deploy capital pursuant to our comprehensive capital allocation plan, our 2020 vision. Increasing shareholder returns, strengthening our balance sheet and investing in accretive growth. During the quarter, we repaid $50 million of long-term indebtedness redeeming a portion of the senior secured notes due in 2024 at SPL. As a reminder, in July, we used the proceeds from our inaugural investment-grade offering at CQP to refinance and redeem $1.4 billion of the SPL 2024 notes. We plan to address the remaining balance of the SPL 2024 notes with cash on hand in 4Q and into the first half of next year, after which point, we will have addressed all maturities in the complex through early 2025 with currently no refinancing needs across our complex until then.

根據今天的業績，我們過去 12 個月的累計淨利潤約為 124 億美元，現在已經連續四個季度報告了季度淨利潤和累計過去 4 個季度的淨利潤。在整個季度中，我們繼續根據我們的全面資本配置計劃（我們的 2020 年願景）部署資本。提高股東回報，加強我們的資產負債表並投資於增值成長。本季度，我們償還了 5,000 萬美元的長期債務，以 SPL 贖回了 2024 年到期的部分優先擔保票據。提醒一下，7月份，我們利用 CQP 首次投資等級發行的收益對 14 億美元的 SPL 2024 票據進行了再融資和贖回。我們計劃在第四季度和明年上半年用手頭現金解決 SPL 2024 票據的剩餘餘額，此後，我們將在 2025 年初解決該綜合體的所有到期問題，目前我們的整個業務範圍內沒有再融資需求複雜到那時。

Since rolling out our revised capital allocation plan last year, we have received 14 distinct rating upgrades throughout our structure. A result of our operational track record and capital allocation plans to opportunistically delever and efficiently refinance in the short amount of time, which has not only strengthened our balance sheet for through-cycle resilience but has also positioned Cheniere for our next phase of growth. Most recently, S&P upgraded CCH to BBB in mid-October. And in August, Moody's upgraded CEI to Baa3 and CCH to Baa2, while Fitch upgraded SBL to BBB+. With the Moody's upgrade, our parent entity is now investment grade across all three agencies. A major milestone for Cheniere considering where it started financially on this LNG export journey over a decade ago. As we've previously discussed, now that we have achieved investment-grade ratings across our corporate structure we are targeting a 1:1 ratio of deleveraging and share buybacks on an aggregate basis through 2026.

自去年推出修訂後的資本配置計畫以來，我們的整個結構已獲得 14 次不同的評級升級。我們的營運記錄和資本配置計劃在短時間內機會主義地去槓桿化和高效再融資，這不僅增強了我們的資產負債表的跨週期彈性，而且也為切尼爾的下一階段增長奠定了基礎。最近，標準普爾在 10 月中旬將 CCH 評級升級為 BBB。 8 月，穆迪將 CEI 升級至 Baa3，將 CCH 升級至 Baa2，惠譽將 SBL 升級至 BBB+。隨著穆迪的升級，我們的母公司現在在所有三個機構中都獲得投資等級。考慮到十多年前切尼爾在液化天然氣出口之旅中的財務起步，這對切尼爾來說是一個重要的里程碑。正如我們之前所討論的，既然我們已經在整個公司結構中獲得了投資級評級，我們的目標是到 2026 年總體上去槓桿化和股票回購的比例為 1:1。

During the third quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.2 million shares of common stock for approximately $357 million, which reinforces our intent for the catch-up of buybacks compared to the amount of capital deployed towards deleveraging going forward. We expect to continue to work towards achieving that 1:1 ratio over the next year as we continue to initially target buying back approximately 10% of our market cap over time. We expect to deploy the remaining just under $2.5 billion of the repurchase authorization ahead of the 3-year plan, but recognize there may be variability quarter-to-quarter as we aim to be opportunistic and are subject to the parameters of our 10b5-1 program. For the third quarter, we followed through earlier this week by announcing an increase of our quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.435 per common share or $1.74 annualized, which is consistent with our 2020 plan of growing our dividend by approximately 10% annually into the mid-2020s through the construction of Stage 3. We intend to steadily increase our payout ratio over time while maintaining financial flexibility with a balanced capital allocation plan and the ability to fund brownfield growth with internally generated cash flow.

第三季度，我們以約 3.57 億美元的價格回購了約 220 萬股普通股，與未來去槓桿化所部署的資本金額相比，這強化了我們追趕回購的意圖。我們預計明年將繼續努力實現 1:1 的比例，因為我們最初的目標是隨著時間的推移回購約 10% 的市值。 We expect to deploy the remaining just under $2.5 billion of the repurchase authorization ahead of the 3-year plan, but recognize there may be variability quarter-to-quarter as we aim to be opportunistic and are subject to the parameters of our 10b5-1程式.對於第三季度，我們繼本週稍早宣布將季度股息增加10% 至每股普通股0.435 美元或年化1.74 美元，這與我們的2020 年計劃一致，即到中期每年將股息增加約10 % -2020 年代，透過第三階段的建設。我們打算隨著時間的推移穩步提高派息率，同時透過平衡的資本配置計劃保持財務靈活性，並有能力利用內部產生的現金流為棕地增長提供資金。

And for the final pillar of our comprehensive capital allocation plan, disciplined growth. We funded approximately $312 million of CapEx at our Stage 3 project during the quarter, with cash on hand. We still have over $3 billion available on our CCH term loan that we plan to utilize beginning in the second half of 2024 as the project progresses and the total capital spent to date continues to grow. By primarily funding the 50% equity component of the project ahead of the drawing down on the construction loan, we have saved considerably on interest expense while retaining all of our liquidity flexibility for the coming years to complete funding of the full project by 2026. Turning now to Slide 13, where I'll provide additional detail around 2023 guidance and our open capacity for 2024. Today, we are reconfirming our full year 2023 guidance ranges of $83 billion to $8 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $5.8 billion to $6.3 billion in distributable cash flow. But as Jack noted, we are tracking to the high end of those ranges. The improved outlook is driven by portfolio optimization activities, primarily in gas procurement and vessel subchartering and, to a lesser extent, the timing of some expenses moving to 2024 and higher marketing margins on the minimal and the open capacity for CMI, we still had available to sales since the last call.

我們全面資本配置計畫的最後一個支柱是有紀律的成長。本季度，我們為第三階段項目提供了約 3.12 億美元的資本支出，並持有現金。我們的 CCH 定期貸款仍有超過 30 億美元的可用資金，隨著專案的進展和迄今為止支出的總資本持續增長，我們計劃從 2024 年下半年開始使用這些貸款。透過在提取建設貸款之前主要為專案 50% 的股權部分提供資金，我們節省了大量利息費用，同時保留了未來幾年的所有流動性靈活性，以便在 2026 年之前完成整個專案的融資。現在轉到幻燈片13，我將在其中提供有關2023 年指導和2024 年開放產能的更多詳細資訊。今天，我們再次確認2023 年全年指導範圍為830 億至80 億美元的綜合調整EBITDA 和58 億至63 億美元的綜合調整EBITDA可分配現金流量。但正如傑克指出的那樣，我們正在追蹤這些範圍的高端。前景改善是由投資組合優化活動推動的，主要是在天然氣採購和船舶轉租方面，在較小程度上，一些費用的時間移至2024 年，以及CMI 的最低和開放產能的營銷利潤率較高，我們仍然有可用的自上次通話以來的銷售情況。

With respect to our EBITDA sensitivity for the remainder of the year, we now have an immaterial amount of unsold LNG remaining. So we're confident in our ability to deliver financial results at the high end of the ranges. As always, our results could be impacted by the timing of certain cargoes around year-end as well as incremental margin from further optimization, upstream and downstream of our facilities. Our distributable cash flow for 2023 could also be affected by any changes in the tax code under the IRA. However, the guidance provided today is based on the current IRA tax law guidance. in which we would not qualify for the minimum corporate tax of 15% this year. However, as noted previously, both of these dynamics would mainly affect timing and not materially impact our cumulative cash flow generation through the mid-2020s as we think about our overall capital allocation plan and our 2020 vision goals.

就我們今年剩餘時間的 EBITDA 敏感度而言，我們現在剩餘的未售出液化天然氣數量微乎其微。因此，我們對實現高端財務表現的能力充滿信心。像往常一樣，我們的業績可能會受到年底前後某些貨物的運輸時間以及我們設施上游和下游進一步優化帶來的增量利潤的影響。我們 2023 年的可分配現金流量也可能受到 IRA 稅法任何變更的影響。然而，今天提供的指導是基於現行 IRA 稅法指導。今年我們將沒有資格享有 15% 的最低企業稅。然而，如前所述，當我們考慮我們的整體資本配置計劃和2020 年願景目標時，這兩種動態將主要影響時間安排，而不會對我們整個2020 年代中期的累積現金流產生重大影響。

Looking ahead to next year, 2024 will be our most contracted year-to-date as all of the contracts underpinning the initial nine train platform will have commenced as well as some bridging volumes for contracts tied to our growth. Additionally, our team continues to put away the few remaining uncontracted volumes, leaving us with approximately 50 TBtu unsold for the full year as of today's call or about 2% of our 2024 production capacity. The open volume is based upon a production forecast of approximately 45 million tons, which is similar to our production this year and takes into account planned maintenance activities for the year. With such minimal open exposure to the market, 2024 is expected to look to most like a 9 train run rate year as any we will have. with results that should largely reflect the economics of a long-term fixed fee, take-or-pay style cash flow business model. With that said, currently forecast that a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $50 million for the full year, with market margins currently elevated through the next year compared to our run rate CMI assumption of $2.25 per MMBtu.

展望明年，2024 年將是我們迄今為止簽訂合約最多的一年，因為支撐最初 9 個列車平台的所有合約都將開始，並且與我們的成長相關的一些合約量也將開始。此外，我們的團隊繼續擱置剩餘的少量未合約量，截至今天的電話會議，全年約有 50 TBtu 未售出，約占我們 2024 年產能的 2%。未平倉量基於約 4500 萬噸的產量預測，這與我們今年的產量相似，並考慮了今年計劃的維護活動。由於對市場的公開敞口如此之小，預計 2024 年將是最有可能實現 9 趟列車運行率的一年。其結果應在很大程度上反映長期固定費用、照付不議式現金流商業模式的經濟性。話雖如此，目前預測市場利潤率變化 1 美元將影響全年 EBITDA 約 5,000 萬美元，與我們的 CMI 運行率假設每 MMBtu 2.25 美元相比，目前明年的市場利潤率有所上升。

We should be able to still beat the midpoint of our 9 train run rate of $5.5 billion of EBITDA and before any further volatility in commodity prices. 2024 results are expected to come down from this year as our open capacity narrows until Stage 3 starts ramping up our operational capacity again in 2025. Thanks to our cash flow visibility, 2024 was always assumed to be a heavily contracted year and consistently baked into our financial plans, including in our 2020 vision to generate over $20 billion of available cash through 2026 provided back in September 2022. As Jack noted, given the progress made by the Bechtel and Cheniere teams on Stage 3, we remain optimistic and hope to be in commissioning with first LNG from Train 1 by the end of next year, which would provide additional LNG supply to the delicately balanced market Anatol discussed earlier and increased our operational LNG capacity again in 2025. However, as a reminder, commissioning volumes would not impact our revenues or EBITDA for the year and instead show up in our financials as a reduction in our capital costs.

在大宗商品價格進一步波動之前，我們應該仍能超過 9 趟列車運行率 55 億美元的 EBITDA 的中點。預計2024 年的業績將比今年有所下降，因為我們的開放產能將縮小，直到2025 年第三階段開始再次提高我們的營運能力。由於我們的現金流量可見性，2024 年一直被認為是嚴重收縮的一年，並始終納入我們的預測中。財務計劃，包括我們2020 年的願景，即到2026 年產生超過200 億美元的可用現金，並於2022 年9 月提供。正如Jack 指出的，鑑於Bechtel和Cheniere 團隊在第三階段取得的進展，我們仍然樂觀，並希望明年年底前，1 號列車將投入使用第一批液化天然氣，這將為之前討論過的Anatol 微妙平衡的市場提供額外的液化天然氣供應，並在2025 年再次增加我們的液化天然氣營運能力。不過，提醒一下，調試量不會影響我們的當年的收入或 EBITDA，而是在我們的財務數據中顯示為資本成本的減少。

With the meaningful progress achieved to date, we expect to invest between $1.5 billion to $2 billion of CapEx towards Stage 3 in 2024, consistent with this year as we still expect to fund another approximately $0.5 billion of equity into the project this quarter. While the last few years have proven Cheniere's ability to respond to market signals and optimize throughout our business, our conviction in our highly contracted business model rooted in longer duration fixed fee cash flows from creditworthy counterparties has only been reinforced as we look forward to internally funding further growth as well as even more meaningful shareholder returns that can be relied on over time. These dependable cash flows form the foundation of the $40 billion natural gas infrastructure platform we have developed over the last decade plus. We remain focused on maintaining reliable and safe operations to ensure we can continue delivering affordable LNG as well as meaningful long-term value to our stakeholders around the world for decades to come. That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line to questions.

鑑於迄今為止取得的有意義的進展，我們預計將在2024 年為第三階段投資15 億至20 億美元的資本支出，與今年一致，因為我們仍預計本季度向該項目另外提供約5 億美元的股權資金。雖然過去幾年已經證明Cheniere 有能力響應市場信號並優化整個業務，但我們對高度契約化的業務模式的信念更加堅定，這種模式植根於來自信譽良好的交易對手的長期固定費用現金流，因為我們期待內部融資隨著時間的推移，進一步的成長以及更有意義的股東回報值得信賴。這些可靠的現金流構成了我們在過去十多年開發的價值 400 億美元的天然氣基礎設施平台的基礎。我們仍然專注於維持可靠和安全的運營，以確保我們能夠在未來幾十年繼續為世界各地的利益相關者提供負擔得起的液化天然氣以及有意義的長期價值。我們準備好的演講到此結束。感謝您抽出寶貴的時間以及對切尼爾的興趣。接線員，我們已準備好開始提問。

(Operator Instructions). We'll take our first question from Michael Blum with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）。我們將回答富國銀行邁克爾布魯姆的第一個問題。

Thanks. First question, I just wanted to make sure I understood. This quarter, you had a pretty big variance in volume at Sabine and at the CTP level. Just wanted to confirm that, that was really just a maintenance taking the facility offline? Or is there anything else to flag over there?

謝謝。第一個問題，我只是想確保我理解。本季度，Sabine 和 CTP 級別的數量存在相當大的差異。只是想確認一下，這真的只是讓設施離線的維護嗎？或是還有什麼要標記的嗎？

This is Zach, and I'd say there's not much to flag there. Basically, the major maintenance on Trains 1 and 2 at Sabine were in June. And with that, the ramp-up then begun. And it takes time to eventually deliver those volumes. So it reduced the amount of interest going into Q3. And then on top of that, it was a really warm summer. So with the ambient temperatures, we had a little less volume than you'd have or a bit cooler. So regular core still on track with our forecast.

這是紮克，我想說那裡沒有什麼值得標記的。基本上，薩賓 1 號和 2 號列車的主要維護工作是在 6 月進行的。就這樣，加速就開始了。最終交付這些數量需要時間。因此，它減少了進入第三季的利息金額。最重要的是，那是一個非常溫暖的夏天。因此，就環境溫度而言，我們的體積比您的體積小一點或冷一點。因此，常規核心仍符合我們的預測。

Okay. Got it. That makes sense. And then on the Sabine Pass expansion, obviously, BioMath roughly, I don't know, 30% contracted on the total size of the project, but you're almost that contracted on the first train. So my question is, would you consider going ahead with FID on just one train of the capacity? Are you going to wait until you get some percentage of the total project before you FID the entire project.

好的。知道了。這就說得通了。然後，在 Sabine Pass 擴建中，顯然，BioMath 大約，我不知道，項目總規模收縮了 30%，但在第一列火車上幾乎就收縮了這個比例。所以我的問題是，您是否會考慮僅對一趟列車進行 FID？您是否要等到獲得整個專案的一定比例後才對整個專案進行 FID？

No, I think -- Michael, this is Jack. And you're right, it would be old to FID in whatever fashion that made the most financial sense. And if it makes sense to build it in phases, do Train 7 first and then train 8 later, we're going to do it that way. So we're currently working through Bechtel not only on a fixed price for the entire project, but also on implementation and execution. And -- so that's the way we think about it also. But we're going to continue to do it the way we've done it in the past, which is we're going to commercialize the project. We're going to get a fixed price and we're going to work with Bechtel to make sure that there that were locked in with price schedule and budget.

不，我想——邁克爾，這是傑克。你是對的，以任何最具經濟意義的方式進行最終投資決定都已經過時了。如果分階段建造它有意義，首先進行訓練 7，然後訓練 8，我們就會這樣做。因此，我們目前正在透過柏克德公司不僅確定整個專案的固定價格，而且還在實施和執行方面進行合作。而且──這也是我們思考問題的方式。但我們將繼續按照過去的方式進行，即將該專案商業化。我們將獲得固定價格，並將與柏克德公司合作，以確保價格表和預算被鎖定。

We'll go next to Ben Nolan with Stifle.

我們將和史蒂夫一起去本諾蘭旁邊。

I'll put both of my questions into one, if I could. Your -- effectively, with the new contracts, including the two that are here, you're assuming, I suppose, a certain level of economics and cost inflation. And I know, Zach, you and I have talked that you're not going to do something that's noneconomic, but inflation continues to go higher. I guess really my question is, some of these have bridging volumes. So how does the mechanism works such that if inflation goes up and you're already committed and are already in some degree, selling on volumes, how do you adjust for that if the costs end up coming in higher than what you thought it was going to?

如果可以的話，我會把我的兩個問題合而為一。實際上，透過新合同，包括這裡的兩份合同，我想，您假設一定程度的經濟和成本通膨。我知道，扎克，你和我已經說過，你不會做一些非經濟的事情，但通貨膨脹繼續走高。我想我真正的問題是，其中一些有橋接卷。那麼，這個機制是如何運作的，如果通貨膨脹上升，而你已經承諾並且已經在某種程度上進行了批量銷售，如果成本最終高於你的預期，你該如何調整？到？

This is Zach. So I'd basically say anything that's firm, we're assuming is going to be part of the operations of the 9 trains plus Stage 3. So the economics work, we're making the margins that we want to make. And we're being covered for inflation in that, let's say, 15 to 20-plus percent range to the fixed fee over time, which is really attractive in covering what we variance over the last few years. In terms of the rest, those are speed to the FIDs of those projects. And we're just going to be disciplined. I think you've seen that in every FID that we've done. And if we can target that around, let's say, 7x CapEx to EBITDA, get to 10% unlevered returns and always hold it up to beating the returns just embedded in buying back more of the stock without the growth, we're going to do that. And with inflation and cost of capital going up, that should be embedded in the stock price to an extent. So we'll keep ourselves honest and make sure it's clearly accretive to Cheniere.

這是札克。所以我基本上會說任何堅定的事情，我們假設將成為 9 列火車加上第三階段運營的一部分。因此，經濟有效，我們正在賺取我們想要的利潤。我們正在應對通貨膨脹，比如說，隨著時間的推移，固定費用會上漲 15% 到 20% 以上，這對於彌補我們過去幾年的差異來說非常有吸引力。就其餘而言，這些都是這些項目最終投資決定的速度。我們只會遵守紀律。我想您已經在我們所做的每一次 FID 中看到了這一點。如果我們能夠以 EBITDA 為 7 倍的資本支出為目標，獲得 10% 的無槓桿回報，並始終保持其高於回購更多股票而沒有增長所帶來的回報，我們就會這樣做。隨著通貨膨脹和資本成本的上升，這應該在一定程度上體現在股價中。因此，我們將保持誠實，並確保這對切尼爾有明顯的促進作用。

That makes sense. And just maybe as a follow-up. In your conversations as far with Bechtel the expansions, are you starting to see some stability with respect to price any sort of early indications as to whether or not things are leveling off a bit?

這就說得通了。也許只是作為後續行動。在您與柏克德（Bechtel）擴張的對話中，您是否開始看到價格方面的一些穩定性，是否有任何早期跡象表明情況是否會趨於平穩？

Yes. This is Jack, Ben. And we are -- and I'm glad to say that some of the steel prices in cement and rebar and everything else, structural still have come back down off their highs. So I think it's all moving in the right direction. And I feel really good about the timing of the project, and we have time to wait to see how this all works out before we lock in.

是的。這是傑克，本。我很高興地說，水泥、螺紋鋼和其他結構性鋼材的部分鋼材價格仍然從高位回落。所以我認為一切都在朝著正確的方向發展。我對這個項目的時間安排感覺非常好，在我們鎖定之前，我們有時間等待看看這一切如何進行。

Moving next to Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

接替傑里米·託內特 (Jeremy Tonet) 加入摩根大通。

Question maybe somewhat more operational or construction development in nature here. But just Curious, if we look back, I guess, in the history of LNG development, both domestically and internationally, there's been just a long list of projects that have been delayed and not come out on time yet Cheniere is not just hitting the time lines of bringing them forward early. Just wondering specifically, if you could help us understand how Cheniere is able to bring these facilities online earlier than expected? And I guess, is there room for more?

問題本質上可能更多的是營運或建設開發。但好奇的是，如果我們回顧一下，我想，在國內外液化天然氣發展史上，有一長串項目被推遲而未能按時推出，但切尼爾不僅僅是趕上了時機提前提出他們的路線。只是具體想知道，您是否可以幫助我們了解 Cheniere 如何能夠比預期更早地使這些設施上線？我想，還有更多的空間嗎？

Yes. So Jeremy, I mean, that's where our relationship with Bechtel has really paid off. And when we talk about the One Team approach between Cheniere and Bechtel really mean it. we do everything together. We walk the site together. We try to execute on different construction plans to see which one will work better for us, be more efficient, more effective. It really is a win-win between the two companies. And I can't say enough about how appreciative I am of Bechtel for working so collaboratively with us over these -- at least for me, close to the last 8 years. So it's no more or less than that.

是的。所以傑里米，我的意思是，這就是我們與柏克德的關係真正得到回報的地方。當我們談論 Cheniere 和 Bechtel 之間的「One Team」方法時，我們確實是這麼說的。我們一起做所有事情。我們一起走遍現場。我們嘗試執行不同的建設計劃，看看哪一個對我們來說效果更好、更有效率、效果更好。這確實是兩家公司之間的雙贏。我對 Bechtel 與我們在這些問題上如此合作的感激之情無法言喻——至少對我來說，在過去 8 年裡是這樣。所以不多也不少。

Got it. That's helpful. And then maybe just kind of pivoting towards capital allocation a little bit here. Zach, if I could. Just wondering current thoughts here, I guess, on the pace of buybacks as you see it as it relates to debt paydown and also financing the Corpus expansion, latest thoughts on how you see that all balancing. It looks like on the balance sheet, there is a mountain of cash that's pretty high. So just wondering what your current thoughts are?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後也許只是稍微轉向資本配置。札克，​​如果可以的話。我想，我只是想知道目前的想法，即你所看到的回購速度，因為它與債務償還以及為 Corpus 擴張融資有關，以及你如何看待所有平衡的最新想法。看起來資產負債表上有一座相當高的現金山。所以只是想知道你目前的想法是什麼？

Hey Jeremy, I was expecting that question from you. But basically, yes, we have over $3 billion of cash sitting at CEI specifically. And you should assume over time as we fund Corpus and there's still about $1.2 billion of equity funding to go on stage 3, and obviously, pick up on the buyback, that will trend to $1 billion in a run rate phase once we get really through Stage 3. And in terms of the buyback, you just look at the last 2 quarters and you're starting to see that the buyback deployment is higher than the debt pay down. Just in Q3, it was $300 million higher, 7x as much. And at this point, buybacks for the year are about to eclipse the amount of debt pay down we did mainly earlier this year to get to IG and for everyone to just be tracking the buyback, it will be lumpy, volatile quarter-to-quarter as we try to be opportunistic. But what you can track it to is basically, we have already deployed over $3.5 billion to debt pay down in the updated capital allocation plan and just over $1.5 billion of buybacks so far in the same plan.

嘿，傑里米，我正等著你問這個問題。但基本上，是的，我們有超過 30 億美元的現金專門存放在 CEI。你應該假設，隨著時間的推移，當我們為Corpus 提供資金時，仍然有大約12 億美元的股權融資進入第三階段，顯然，隨著回購的進行，一旦我們真正度過難關，運行率階段的資金將趨向於10 億美元第三階段。就回購而言，只要看看過去兩個季度，您就會開始看到回購部署高於債務償還。光是第三季度，這一數字就增加了 3 億美元，是原來的 7 倍。在這一點上，今年的回購將超過我們主要在今年早些時候為IG 所做的債務償還金額，並且對於每個人都只是跟踪回購，它將是不穩定的，季度與季度之間的波動當我們試圖投機取巧時。但你可以追蹤到的基本上是，我們已經在更新的資本配置計劃中部署了超過 35 億美元用於償還債務，並且迄今為止在同一計劃中回購了略多於 15 億美元的資金。

So there's basically a $2 billion plus catch-up trade that needs to occur really through 2024. So you can imagine we're pretty focused at CEI on funding the Corpus Stage 3 growth as it accelerates and to catch up on the buybacks with that, yes, at least $2 billion to go in the next year or so. In the meantime, we'll focus on Sabine growth, getting ready with all this commercialization that we've done by likely ramping down the variable DPU next year to start being in a position to fund that project once we can FID that in the next few years. And in terms of the Stage 3 expansion upon that for Train 8 and 9 we might fund that debt. There's going to be plenty of equity up there as well with the $20-plus billion of available cash through $26 million.

因此，到 2024 年，基本上需要進行 20 億美元以上的追趕性交易。所以你可以想像，我們 CEI 非常專注於為 Corpus 第三階段的加速增長提供資金，並趕上回購的步伐，是的，明年左右至少需要投入20 億美元。同時，我們將專注於 Sabine 的成長，為我們已經完成的所有商業化做好準備，明年可能會降低可變 DPU，一旦我們能夠在明年確定該項目，我們就可以開始為該項目提供資金幾年。就 8 號和 9 號列車的第三階段擴展而言，我們可能會為該債務提供資金。那裡還將有大量的股本，以及 20 多億美元到 2,600 萬美元的可用現金。

Got it. Very helpful. That makes sense. And also looking forward to Corpus coming online early some extra marketing margins there, helping out even more. So thank you for all the color, and we'll be talking later to see you at the conference.

知道了。很有幫助。這就說得通了。我們也期待 Corpus 早日上線，從而獲得一些額外的行銷利潤，從而提供更多幫助。感謝大家的精彩報道，我們稍後會在會議上見到您。

We'll go next to John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將討論高盛的約翰·麥凱。

Thank you for the time. why don't we pick up on the CQP variable distribution comments there, I figured that would be a fourth quarter call conversation, but thanks for kind of flagging that. Would just be curious on kind of where you think that needs to go at the CQP level? And then kind of more broadly, where do you want to see the kind of CQP-specific balance sheet go to, to be able to fund the SBL expansion if that moves forward?

謝謝你的時間。我們為什麼不在那裡了解 CQP 變數分佈評論，我認為這將是第四季度的電話對話，但感謝您對此進行標記。只是想知道您認為 CQP 等級需要做什麼？然後更廣泛地說，您希望看到 CQP 特定的資產負債表去哪裡，以便能夠為 SBL 擴張提供資金（如果進展順利）？

Sure. So we'll provide guidance for EBITDA and DCF for CEI on the Q4 call in February, and we'll provide guidance on the DPU for CQP at the same time as we work that through with our partners in Brookfield, Blackstone and the Board there. But basically, CEI is going to be focused on the growth and focused on the catch-up on the buyback in the billions. CQP is going to be focused on a robust distribution and really trending their debt-to-EBITDA metrics closer and closer to 4x or under. Basically, CEI is a consolidated entity and why it's investment grade is because we're already under 4x on a run rate basis with lower margins than today. CQP slightly above. So how we think about it is, basically, if we can retain some of that cash flow over the next couple of years, get the metrics down a bit lower, we're going to give ourselves a lot of flexibility financially to really re-up the leverage when we FID the Sabine expansion, keep at the very least, but probably more than the base distribution going and yes, keep the ratings and everything intact while growing that DPU over time to something closer to over $5. So yes, we're still pretty comprehensive across the board in terms of debt paydown, buybacks and growth. it's just going to be mixed between LNG and CQP.

當然。因此，我們將在 2 月份的第四季度電話會議上為 CEI 的 EBITDA 和 DCF 提供指導，同時我們將與 Brookfield、Blackstone 的合作夥伴以及董事會合作，為 CQP 的 DPU 提供指導。 。但基本上，CEI 將專注於成長並專注於追趕數十億美元的回購。 CQP 將專注於穩健的分佈，並使其債務與 EBITDA 指標越來越接近 4 倍或更低。基本上，CEI 是一個綜合實體，其投資評級的原因是我們的運作率已經低於 4 倍，利潤率也低於今天。 CQP略高於。所以我們的想法是，基本上，如果我們能夠在未來幾年保留一些現金流，將指標降低一點，我們將在財務上給予自己很大的靈活性，以真正重新 -當我們FID 薩賓擴張時，提高槓桿率，至少保持，但可能超過基本分配，是的，保持評級和一切完好無損，同時隨著時間的推移將DPU 增加到接近5 美元以上。所以，是的，我們在債務償還、回購和成長方面仍然非常全面。它只是將 LNG 和 CQP 混合在一起。

Right. I appreciate that. Maybe just picking up on one thing we haven't talked about I guess, more recently, just the CCUS potential for some of the expansions. Would just be curious to hear how much you're getting asked by your customer base to kind of include that? I know you've been able to sign a couple of different types of customers without necessarily moving forward on that. But would be curious kind of where broader sentiment sits there.

正確的。我很感激。我猜想，最近我們可能只是注意到一件我們沒有討論過的事情，那就是 CCUS 在某些擴展中的潛力。只是想知道您的客戶群有多少要求您將其納入？我知道您已經能夠簽下幾種不同類型的客戶，而不必繼續前進。但我會好奇更廣泛的情緒在那裡。

Yes. Thanks, John. I'll talk about the CCUS capabilities or what we've been doing at Sabine and Corpus. We've spent an enormous amount of time on engineering looking at ways to capture whatever carbon or greenhouse gases we can. We think the IRA bill going from $50 to $85 was a step in the right direction and we continue to look for opportunities to make our operations cleaner and more sustainable, which is a real focal point of myself and the team, and our customers, as you know, quite a few of them are from Western Europe and they're asking us as many questions as you are, and I'll turn it over to Anatol.

是的。謝謝，約翰。我將談論 CCUS 功能或我們在 Sabine 和 Corpus 所做的事情。我們在工程上花費了大量的時間來尋找盡可能捕獲碳或溫室氣體的方法。我們認為IRA 帳單從50 美元升至85 美元是朝著正確方向邁出的一步，我們將繼續尋找機會使我們的營運更清潔、更永續，這是我本人、團隊以及我們的客戶真正關注的焦點，因為你知道，他們中有相當多來自西歐，他們問我們的問題和你一樣多，我會把它交給阿納托爾。

Yes. Thanks, Jack. Thanks for the question, John. The customers that engage with us on this front, and obviously, it's a growing percentage. Jack mentioned some of the key European partners that are probably more advanced stages of developing these strategies is it a comprehensive approach, and we partner with them across a number of dimensions. Nothing is prescriptive, but one of the reasons we have these engagements and have the opportunity to proceed is because of all of the things that we are doing to improve our life cycle emissions profile. CCS is part of it as well as all of our programs with producers pipeline shipping companies that measure and ultimately report our emissions. We have the only program to date that issues cargo emissions with every cargo that we've had in place for a little over a year. All those are critical components to these engagements now that it is so prescriptive as to say we will work on X and we will deliver why.

是的。謝謝，傑克。謝謝你的提問，約翰。在這方面與我們互動的客戶，顯然，這個比例正在不斷成長。傑克提到了一些主要的歐洲合作夥伴，他們可能處於制定這些策略的更高級階段，這是一種全面的方法，我們在多個方面與他們合作。沒有什麼是規定性的，但我們參與這些活動並有機會繼續進行的原因之一是因為我們正在採取一切措施來改善我們的生命週期排放。 CCS 是其中的一部分，也是我們與生產商、管道運輸公司合作測量並最終報告我們的排放量的所有計劃的一部分。到目前為止，我們有唯一一個對每批貨物進行貨物排放問題的計劃，我們已經實施了一年多了。所有這些都是這些活動的關鍵組成部分，現在它是如此規範，以至於我們將致力於 X，並且我們將提供原因。

And if you haven't already seen it, it's posted on our website, our CR report went live about 2 months ago.

如果你還沒看過，它已發佈在我們的網站上，我們的 CR 報告大約 2 個月前發布。

We'll go next to Jean Sadsbury with Bernstein.

接下來我們將和伯恩斯坦一起去讓‧薩茲伯里。

There's been some news articles recently highlighting that the Biden administration is moving extremely slowly on approving non-FTA LNG export permits. Could this become a gating issue for CC 8 and 9 FID? And is there any flexibility that you might have in your portfolio to FID, CC 8 and 9, even if you're waiting for that permit.

最近有一些新聞文章強調，拜登政府在批准非自由貿易協定液化天然氣出口許可證方面進展極為緩慢。這會成為 CC 8 和 9 FID 的門控問題嗎？即使您正在等待許可證，您的投資組合是否可以根據 FID、CC 8 和 9 擁有任何靈活性。

I don't think it's going to be a gating issue at all. We're already commercialized the repeat customers 8, 9 are backed by Chevron, Equinor, and Petro China. Yes. So I feel pretty good about where 8, 9 are. I'm also very optimistic. I mean, Chairman, Willie Phillips at FERC, he's been moving things along. I mean he's been acting in a bipartisan manner. We've seen good signs coming out of there recently. I'm hopeful that energy security now is on top of everybody's mind and our allies need more, not less from the U.S.

我認為這根本不會成為門控問題。我們已經將回頭客 8、9 商業化，並得到了雪佛龍、Equinor 和中油的支持。是的。所以我對8、9的位置感覺很好。我也很樂觀。我的意思是，聯邦能源監管委員會 (FERC) 主席威利·菲利普斯 (Willie Phillips)，他一直在推動事情的發展。我的意思是他一直以兩黨合作的方式行事。我們最近看到了那裡出現的好跡象。我希望能源安全現在成為每個人的首要考慮，而我們的盟友需要美國提供更多而不是更少的幫助。

And I'll just add, basically, we need to get going on construction of Train 8 and 9 at Corpus in 2026 as the first 7 trains complete. And our goal is definitely well ahead of that to get going. In the meantime, with the cash that we have, the flexibility we have in our revolvers and term loans long lead items opportunistically. We'll lock that in, in the coming year or so when possible. So yes, we don't see issues there. We have quite a bit of buffer just with trains 1 through 7 coming online in '25 and '26.

我只想補充一點，基本上，隨著前 7 列列車的完工，我們需要在 2026 年在 Corpus 開始建造 8 號和 9 號列車。我們的目標絕對是遠遠超前的。同時，憑藉我們擁有的現金、我們在左輪手槍和長期貸款項目上的靈活性，機會主義地。如果可能的話，我們將在未來一年左右鎖定這一點。所以是的，我們沒有看到那裡的問題。光是 1 號至 7 號列車將於 25 年和 26 年上線，我們就有相當多的緩衝。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Sounds like the news reports are a little overstated. And then as a follow-up, my understanding is that most are all of the recent contracts that you signed that are linked to the Sabine Pass expansion can be kept even if you delay the expansion. Which would give you the option to be close to 100% contracted on your volumes exiting Pass expansion. Am I thinking about this correctly as sort of the base case for Cheniere here if you can't ultimately get to the numbers that you want for the Sabine Pass expansion ?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。聽起來新聞報道有點誇大了。然後作為後續，我的理解是，即使您推遲擴展，您最近簽署的與薩賓通行證擴展相關的大部分合約都可以保留。這將使您可以選擇在退出 Pass 擴充功能時接近 100% 收縮。如果您最終無法獲得薩賓山口擴張所需的數字，我是否正確地將此視為切尼爾的基本情況？

I guess we'll tag team this to some extent. But yes, you're absolutely right in the sense the contracts that we enter into give us tremendous flexibility on where they ultimately wind up and what projects they ultimately support. Now of course, for, we're very proud of the fact that unlike most projects to date, it does not have bridging volumes. It is linked initially to Sabine Train 8, our first contract that supports Train 8. But ultimately, we have full flexibility on where that contract ends up. So you're absolutely right in your assumption of kind of an extreme case that can be the decision to keep the contract if we so choose and not proceed for example.

我想我們會在某種程度上給團隊貼上標籤。但是，是的，從某種意義上說，您是絕對正確的，我們簽訂的合約為我們提供了極大的靈活性，讓我們能夠在最終結束的地點以及最終支持的項目方面發揮巨大的靈活性。當然，現在我們感到非常自豪的是，與迄今為止的大多數項目不同，它沒有橋接體積。它最初與 Sabine Train 8 相關聯，這是我們第一個支持 Train 8 的合約。但最終，我們對該合約的最終結果擁有完全的靈活性。因此，您對極端情況的假設是絕對正確的，例如，如果我們選擇不繼續進行，則可以決定保留合約。

Yes, that's right. So basically, depending on the timing, yes, we might have to bridge some of these contracts with existing capacity, and we'll have that with our 55-plus million tons when Stage 3 comes online. And in these other scenarios that you just can't see when you're seeing out on the curve, still $5, $6 margins in a few years. Yes, we could be 100% contracted in a downside scenario. But that's not the plan. We're moving forward with the development of both of the sites. And we're going to try to stick to that 90%, give or take, contracted level.

恩，那就對了。所以基本上，根據時間安排，我們可能必須將其中一些合約與現有產能銜接起來，當第三階段上線時，我們將用我們的 55 多萬噸來實現這一目標。在這些其他情況下，當你在曲線上看到時，你是看不到的，幾年後仍然有 5 美元、6 美元的利潤。是的，在不利的情況下我們可能會 100% 收縮。但這不是計劃。我們正在推動這兩個網站的開發。我們將盡力堅持 90%，無論有多少，合約水準。

We'll go next to Keith Stanley with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們將討論沃爾夫研究公司的基斯‧史丹利。

On the 2024 volume, so I realize it's only 50 TBtu unsold and you're closer to the run rate EBITDA. Is there any way to think about or quantify if any material amount of next year's production was sold as bridging volumes for Stage 3 or shorter-term contracts that are more linked to what forward curves were at the time or should we think of it as 98% of productions effectively sold at long-term SPA type prices?

就 2024 年的銷量而言，我意識到只有 50 TBtu 未售出，而且您更接近運行率 EBITDA。是否有任何方法可以考慮或量化明年產量的任何實質性數量是否作為第三階段或短期合約的過渡量出售，這些合約與當時的遠期曲線更加相關，或者我們應該將其視為 98以長期SPA類型價格有效銷售的產品的百分比？

I'd say almost, some of the numbers I'd give you is basically this year, we had over 40 million tons of long-term contracts. Next year, once we have full year of some of the contracts that started this year, some step-ups and even the start of a contract with PETRONAS will be over 43 million tons of long-term contracting. I will say with 50 TBtu open, the team has always been proactive. And they've already sold a few cargoes for next year in the -- on a short-term basis, but just a few, but in that $9 to $10 range that you can see on the curve today. So there's a little already embedded in there. And yes, we'll see where we are in February. We'll probably sold a bit more, but this is really our operational coverage to really fulfilling our obligations on 43-plus million tons of long-term contracts.

我想說的是，我給你們的一些數字基本上是今年，我們有超過4000萬噸的長期合約。明年，一旦我們今年開始的一些合約到期，一些升級，甚至與馬石油的合約開始，長期合約量將超過 4300 萬噸。我想說的是，在 50 TBtu 開放的情況下，團隊一直都很主動。他們已經在短期內出售了明年的一些貨物，但只是少數，但在您今天可以在曲線上看到的 9 至 10 美元範圍內。所以其中已經嵌入了一些內容。是的，我們會在二月看到情況。我們可能會賣出更多一點，但這確實是我們真正履行 43 多萬噸長期合約義務的營運範圍。

That's helpful. Second one, just clarifications on Stage 3 with it running ahead of plan. So can you remind us commissioning cargoes are treated as a reduction in the capital cost, but if you get the substantial completion early, those excess volumes should drive higher EBITDA in 2025 and '26? And then relatedly, if we think about a 7 train project, should we expect if the first train comes on 3 to 6 months early, is that pretty even then for the rest of the trains as you see it coming on 3 to 6 months early? Or is it lumpy?

這很有幫助。第二個，只是對第三階段的澄清，它比計劃提前進行。那麼，您能否提醒我們，調試貨物被視為資本成本的減少，但如果您儘早基本完成，這些過剩的數量應該會在 2025 年和 26 年推動更高的 EBITDA？與此相關的是，如果我們考慮7 趟列車項目，我們是否應該預期第一趟列車會提前3 到6 個月開通，那麼對於其餘列車來說也是如此，因為您看到它會提前3 到6個月開通？還是塊狀的？

Basically, yes. We'll give you updates as we keep on progressing on each. We have goals for each of the trains. First and foremost is getting Train 1 up and running. And hopefully, the rest are relatively cookie cutter to there, but it will take through '26 really to complete the state, the 7 trains and get them to substantial completion. And you're right, if we get into commissioning, you won't see like you won't see EBITDA in 2024 related to Stage 3. But at the rate we're going, next November's call for production in '25 and open capacity will be a lot more interesting than today.

基本上，是的。隨著每項工作的不斷進展，我們將為您提供最新資訊。我們對每趟列車都有目標。首先也是最重要的是讓 1 號列車啟動並運行。希望其餘的相對來說都是千篇一律的，但要真正完成這個州，7 列火車，並讓它們實質完成，需要 26 年的時間。你是對的，如果我們進入調試階段，你不會看到 2024 年與第 3 階段相關的 EBITDA。但按照我們的進度，明年 11 月的生產要求將在 25 年開始並開放容量將比今天有趣得多。

We'll go next to Craig Shere with TE Brothers.

接下來我們將與 TE Brothers 一起前往 Craig Shere。

So what -- how does it look in terms of further potentially upsizing legacy train capacity beyond 5 MTPA and could any concerted effort in that regard work concurrently with your efforts to contract out in FID, your SPL Stage 5 expansion?

那麼，在進一步擴大傳統列車容量超過 5 MTPA 方面，這方面的情況如何？在這方面的任何協調一致的努力是否可以與您在 FID（SPL 第 5 階段擴建）中的外包工作同時進行？

Yes. So Craig, this is Jack. So the team is constantly looking at our debottlenecking and maintenance optimization program. So I have a lot of respected faith for this operating group and their ability to continue to surprise us. So it's my expectation that we will get technically get above 5 MTPA per train. But it may take some additional work before we get there. As far as how it connects to the SPL expansion, as Zach said, our focus is to get that commercialized to get those costs under control and locked in and meet our financial objectives and build those trains. So while we have a lot of optionality and flexibility, we are 100% focused on construction.

是的。克雷格，這是傑克。因此，團隊不斷研究我們的消除瓶頸和維護優化計劃。因此，我對這個營運團隊以及他們繼續帶給我們驚喜的能力充滿信心。因此，我期望每列列車在技術上能夠達到 5 MTPA 以上。但在我們到達那裡之前可能需要一些額外的工作。至於它如何與 SPL 擴建相聯繫，正如扎克所說，我們的重點是將其商業化，以控制和鎖定這些成本，並實現我們的財務目標並建造這些列車。因此，雖然我們有很多選擇和靈活性，但我們 100% 專注於建造。

And Craig, just for some numbers that we've talked about before is basically with Stage 3, we'll be a little over 55 million tons. And then with Train data, those are 3 million -- that's 3 million tons, but we'd hope just by adding those trains and some debottlenecking from Stage 3 and even maybe some from Train 1, 2, 3 there, we're going to get to 6 months. And then as we think about some of the efforts that we're doing and the development at Sabine, we're thinking of things like oil reliquefaction of the gas. So that could add incremental capacity as well. So we're pretty focused on the debottlenecking today. We're still at 5 million tons per train and we'll update you when we make more progress there.

克雷格，就我們之前討論過的一些數字而言，基本上是在第三階段，我們的產量將略高於 5500 萬噸。然後根據列車數據，這些是 300 萬噸，即 300 萬噸，但我們希望透過添加這些列車並消除第三階段的一些瓶頸，甚至可能是第 1、2、3 列車中的一些，我們就能達到6個月。然後，當我們思考我們正在做的一些努力和薩賓的開發時，我們正在考慮諸如天然氣的石油再液化之類的事情。這樣也可以增加增量容量。因此，我們今天非常關註消除瓶頸。每列列車的運載量仍為 500 萬噸，當我們取得更多進展時，我們會向您通報最新情況。

And the second question, more for Anatol. Beforehand agreement seems comparatively more vanilla than your prior SPL Stage 5 offtake agreements or related agreements. Would you say that the market is starting to -- with higher interest rates, would worry about cost of capital and execution and large infrastructure projects the progress you've already made on scale Stage 5, your obvious historic execution and worries about peers are starting to make market off-takers look at saving expansion with greater value even without all the bells and whistles of DES or early cargoes and things like that.

第二個問題更多的是關於阿納托爾的。與先前的 SPL 第 5 階段承購協議或相關協議相比，事先協議似乎更加普通。您是否會說，隨著利率上升，市場會開始擔心資本成本和執行成本以及大型基礎設施項目，您在第五階段已經取得的規模進展，您明顯的歷史執行力和對同行的擔憂正在開始讓市場承購商考慮以更大的價值進行儲蓄擴張，即使沒有DES 或早期貨物之類的所有花哨的東西。

Yes, Craig, I will not take offense to your comments on behalf of the origination team. But as we've said in the past, we do expect, as we move forward, that the contractual support will largely rhyme with what we've done in the past. It will be a mix of [fobs] the complexity in these transactions is, as you guys know, Stage 5 and specially Train 8 is quite far out. So there's nothing that is as valuable in the market today as prompt volumes. You can see that obviously in the curve. And when we're talking about a contract that will start in most likely early next decade and continue for 20 years, there's complexity in that, right? So that is the -- that is the key issue there. But you're absolutely right on the second leg of your complement. As Jack said, 3,000-plus cargoes perfect delivery track record at a time when other facilities in the U.S. globally -- globally, the utilization rate for liquefaction is in the mid-80s. And of course, we don't even count the Libya and the Yemen's in those numbers, right? So our track record and the team's performance is a standout relative to our peers globally, and that is being reflected in our commercial engagements.

是的，克雷格，我不會代表發起團隊冒犯你的評論。但正如我們過去所說，隨著我們的前進，我們確實預計合約支援將在很大程度上與我們過去所做的事情保持一致。它將是 [fobs] 的混合體，正如你們所知，這些交易的複雜性是第 5 階段，特別是第 8 階段，還很遙遠。因此，當今市場上沒有什麼比即期成交量更有價值的了。您可以在曲線中清楚地看到這一點。當我們談論一份很可能在下個十年初期開始並持續 20 年的合約時，這很複雜，對吧？這就是關鍵問題。但你的補充的第二條腿絕對是對的。正如 Jack 所說，在美國全球其他設施的液化利用率處於 80 年代中期的情況下，3000 多批貨物的交付記錄完美。當然，我們甚至沒有將利比亞和葉門算在這些數字中，對嗎？因此，與全球同業相比，我們的業績記錄和團隊表現非常出色，這也反映在我們的商業活動中。

We'll go next to Brian Reynolds with UBS.

接下來我們將介紹瑞銀集團的布萊恩‧雷諾茲 (Brian Reynolds)。

I'll keep it to one question on that will be our Zach, thanks for the clarification on the follow-up on the 9-train run rate guidance and the commentary there. But Cheniere has made a lot of money on optimization on the portfolio, whether it's gas sourcing, regas or shipping. So just kind of curious if you can just update us if this is included in kind of the 9 train run rate guidance? And is there a way to kind of capitalize this number going forward, just given that it seems pretty ratable over the last 24 months? Or should we think about more cargoes going to Asia over the long term, maybe biting into some of that optimization.

我將只回答一個問題，這將是我們的紮克（Zach），感謝您對 9 趟列車運行率指導的後續行動和評論的澄清。但切尼爾在優化投資組合方面賺了很多錢，無論是天然氣採購、再氣化或運輸。所以只是有點好奇您是否可以更新我們的信息，如果這包含在 9 趟列車運行率指南中？考慮到過去 24 個月的評分似乎相當高，有沒有辦法在未來將這個數字資本化？或者，從長遠來看，我們是否應該考慮將更多貨物運往亞洲，也許會進行一些優化。

Sure. So basically, I mean, you can even look at like other revenue where the subchartering revenue comes in. And that goes all over the place quarter-to-quarter, just depending on the dynamics of how much length we have in our shipping portfolio to even sublease out. So these types of things they wouldn't be in our run rate numbers whatsoever. They're not even usually in our guidance until it's locked in because we just can't rely on it. It's another reason why we wait for guidance in February because there is a good amount of variability for in-transit between '23 and '24. Those are the types of things we don't want to count on with the guidance and somehow miss for just a timing reason. So that's why we'll come out with guidance in '24. And you could assume when we give you guidance, maybe on the high end, we're taking advantage of some of the optimization, not just in subchartering out our length on the shipping side and using third-party volumes to deliver some of our DES deals. But upstream of the sites as well. We've been really successful this year, taking advantage of basis differentials in lifting margin and yes, enhancing that lifting margin that we've made at both facilities. So not baked into run rate guidance, and we'll see where we are in February, but usually a tailwind to our guidance quarter-to-quarter.

當然。所以基本上，我的意思是，你甚至可以像其他收入一樣看待轉租收入的來源。這每個季度都會發生變化，這取決於我們的運輸組合中的長度動態甚至轉租出去。因此，這些類型的事情無論如何都不會出現在我們的運行率數字中。在它被鎖定之前，它們通常不會在我們的指導中，因為我們無法依賴它。這是我們等待 2 月指導的另一個原因，因為 23 日至 24 日之間的運輸途中存在很大的變化。這些是我們不想指望指導的類型，並且只是因為時間而錯過了。這就是我們將在 24 年發布指導的原因。您可以假設，當我們為您提供指導時，也許在高端，我們正在利用一些優化，而不僅僅是在運輸方面轉租我們的長度並使用第三方卷來交付我們的一些 DES交易。但也包括網站的上游。今年我們確實取得了成功，利用了提升利潤的基差，是的，提高了我們在兩家工廠的提昇利潤。因此，沒有納入運行率指導，我們將在 2 月看到我們的情況，但通常是我們季度指導的順風車。

Great. Makes sense. I'll leave it there. Thanks for the reminder on the CapEx to EBITDA swap for commissioning cargoes. Enjoy the rest of your morning.

偉大的。說得通。我會把它留在那裡。感謝您關於調試貨物的資本支出與 EBITDA 互換的提醒。享受你早上剩下的時間。

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to management for additional or closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題了。我現在將把電話轉回給管理層，以徵求補充或結束語。

I just want to thank everybody for their continued support of Cheniere and we'll talk soon.

我只想感謝大家對 Cheniere 的持續支持，我們很快就會談。

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。