Cheniere Energy Inc (LNG) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Cheniere Energy Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call and Webcast. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Randy Bhatia. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Cheniere Energy 2023 年第四季財報電話會議和網路廣播。今天的會議正在錄製。現在，我想將會議交給蘭迪·巴蒂亞 (Randy Bhatia)。請繼續。

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Cheniere's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. The slide presentation and access to the webcast for today's call are available at cheniere.com.

謝謝，接線生。大家早安，歡迎參加 Cheniere 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。今天電話會議的幻燈片演示和網路直播可在 cheniere.com 上找到。

Joining me this morning are Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO; Anatol Feygin, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer; Zach Davis, Executive Vice President and CFO; and other members of Cheniere's senior management.

今天早上與我一起參加的還有 Cheniere 總裁兼首席執行官 Jack Fusco； Anatol Feygin，執行副總裁兼首席商務官；扎克·戴維斯 (Zach Davis)，執行副總裁兼首席財務官；以及 Cheniere 的其他高級管理人員。

Before we begin, I would like to remind all listeners that our remarks, including answers to your questions, may contain forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from what is described in these statements. Slide 2 of our presentation contains a discussion of those forward-looking statements and associated risks. In addition, we may include references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, such as consolidated adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒所有聽眾，我們的評論，包括對您的問題的回答，可能包含前瞻性陳述，實際結果可能與這些陳述中描述的結果有重大差異。我們簡報的第二張投影片討論了這些前瞻性陳述及其相關風險。此外，我們可能會引用某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如合併調整後 EBITDA 和可分配現金流量。

A reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable GAAP measure can be found in the appendix to the slide presentation. As part of our discussion of Cheniere's results, today's call may also include selected financial information and results for Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P., or CQP. We do not intend to cover CQP's results separately from those of Cheniere Energy, Inc.

在投影片簡報的附錄中可以找到這些指標與最具可比性的 GAAP 指標的對帳。作為我們對 Cheniere 業績討論的一部分，今天的電話會議還可能包括 Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. 或 CQP 的部分財務資訊和績效。我們無意將 CQP 的結果與 Cheniere Energy, Inc. 的結果區分開來。

The call agenda is shown on Slide 3. Jack will begin with operating and financial highlights, Anatol will then provide an update on the LNG market, and Zach will review our financial results and 2024 guidance. After prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A.

電話會議議程如投影片 3 所示。 Jack 將首先介紹營運和財務亮點，然後 Anatol 將介紹液化天然氣市場的最新情況，Zach 將回顧我們的財務表現和 2024 年指引。準備好發言後，我們將開始問答環節。

I'll now turn the call over to Jack Fusco, Cheniere's President and CEO.

現在我將電話轉給 Cheniere 總裁兼執行長 Jack Fusco。

Thank you, Randy. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today as we review a successful 2023 and discuss our outlook for what is setting up to be a very busy and promising 2024. In 2023, we drove exceptional results across the key strategic priorities of the company and we did so while reinforcing our track record on safety, execution and operational reliability.

謝謝你，蘭迪。大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們，回顧成功的 2023 年，並討論我們對非常忙碌和充滿希望的 2024 年的展望。 2023 年，我們在公司的關鍵策略重點上取得了卓越的成果，同時鞏固了我們在安全、執行和營運可靠性方面的業績記錄。

I'm extremely proud of my 1,600 Cheniere colleagues across operations, engineering and construction, origination and others who continue to be driven by excellence and take pride in solidifying Cheniere as best-in-class across our platform. We made significant strides despite some persistent macro headwinds and increased uncertainty in 2023, each largely driven by conflict, geopolitics in the evolving regulatory landscape, particularly right here in America. I'll touch on the latter in a moment.

我為切尼爾能源在營運、工程建設、發起和其他部門的 1,600 名同事感到非常自豪，他們繼續追求卓越，並為鞏固切尼爾能源在我們平台上的一流地位而感到自豪。儘管 2023 年面臨持續的宏觀阻力和日益增加的不確定性，我們仍然取得了重大進展，而這些阻力和不確定性主要受到衝突、地緣政治和不斷變化的監管環境（尤其是美國）的影響。我稍後會談到後者。

But the macro backdrop for LNG today provides blind yet clear reminder of the criticality of secure and stable energy supply in the value of a reliable and customer-focused operator who consistently delivers on its promises to its global stakeholders.

但如今液化天然氣的宏觀背景卻盲目而清晰地提醒我們，安全穩定的能源供應對於可靠、以客戶為中心的運營商的價值至關重要，該運營商始終如一地履行對全球利益相關者的承諾。

Please turn to Slide 5. While I'll renew some key operational and financial achievements from the fourth quarter and full year 2023 and introduce our 2024 financial guidance. We generated consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.65 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing our full year total to approximately $8.8 billion the high end of our most recent guidance range.

請翻到投影片 5。我將回顧 2023 年第四季和全年的一些關鍵營運和財務成就，並介紹我們 2024 年的財務指引。我們第四季的綜合調整後 EBITDA 約為 16.5 億美元，使全年總額達到約 88 億美元，達到我們最新指導範圍的高點。

We generated approximately $1.1 billion of distributable cash flow in the fourth quarter and $6.5 billion for the full year, which is above the high end of our guidance range. Looking back at the original guidance provided for 2023, we beat the midpoint of each of those guidance ranges by over $500 million, once again illustrating the volatile nature of current global natural gas markets and the value of Cheniere's platform to monetize that volatility last year.

我們在第四季度產生了約 11 億美元的可分配現金流，全年產生了 65 億美元的可分配現金流，高於我們預期範圍的高端。回顧 2023 年最初提供的指引，我們超越了每個指引範圍中點 5 億多美元，再次說明了當前全球天然氣市場的波動性以及 Cheniere 平台去年將這種波動性貨幣化的價值。

For the fourth quarter, we generated approximately $1.4 billion of net income, bringing the full year total to approximately $9.9 billion. Strategically, 2023 was another year marked by significant accomplishments across the entire platform, and I'll highlight just a few of them here. First and foremost, we continue to execute on the company's long-term objectives with safety at the foundation of our actions.

第四季度，我們創造了約 14 億美元的淨收入，全年總額達到約 99 億美元。從策略上講，2023 年是整個平台取得重大成就的另一年，我在這裡僅重點介紹其中的幾點。首先，我們將繼續以安全作為行動的基礎，執行公司的長期目標。

And in 2023, we once again demonstrated this by achieving a total recordable incident rate of 0.10, which is well within the top decile for industrial producers. We achieved this while simultaneously operating the second largest LNG platform in the world and being deep in construction on a 10-plus million ton per annum expansion project.

2023 年，我們再次證明了這一點，總可記錄事故率達到 0.10，遠遠超出工業生產商的最高水準。我們在實現這一目標的同時，也經營全球第二大液化天然氣平台，並深入建造年產1000多萬噸的擴建項目。

These safety results are a source of tremendous pride for me and that pride should be felt by all the company's stakeholders. We produced and recorded a record 169 LNG cargoes in the fourth quarter, bringing the total to a record 637 cargoes for the full year. Total production was in line with our forecast of about 45 million tons, inclusive of the successful major maintenance turnaround at Sabine passed over the summer.

這些安全結果令我感到無比自豪，公司的所有利害關係人也應該感到這種自豪。我們在第四季度生產並記錄了創紀錄的 169 批液化天然氣貨物，使全年總量達到創紀錄的 637 批。總產量符合我們預測的約 4,500 萬噸，其中包括薩賓礦於夏季成功進行的重大維護檢修。

Europe remained the premium market for U.S. cargoes across 2023, a 73% of the volume produced at our facilities was delivered to Europe. 5 new long-term customer contracts commenced over the course of 2023, representing approximately 3.7 million tons per annum. And earlier this month, we commenced our 1.1 million ton per annum PETRONAS contract, which was tied to Train 6 on the very first day of the DFCD window holding to our standard of always meeting our customer commitments.

2023 年，歐洲仍是美國貨物的主要市場，我們工廠生產的貨物中有 73% 運往歐洲。 2023 年間簽訂了 5 份新的長期客戶合同，約佔每年 370 萬噸。本月初，我們啟動了每年 110 萬噸的 PETRONAS 合同，該合約與 DFCD 窗口第一天的 6 號列車相關，這符合我們始終履行對客戶承諾的標準。

On the E&C front, Corpus Christi Stage 3 is progressing on an accelerated time line, and we continue to forecast first LNG production from Train 1 at the end of this year. In 2023, we advanced total project completion to over 50%. I'm extremely pleased with the progress we continue to make together with Bechtel on Stage 3, and I'm optimistic for further schedule improvements over time.

在工程與建設方面，科珀斯克里斯蒂第三階段正在加速推進，我們繼續預測第一條生產線將在今年底生產第一批液化天然氣。 2023 年，我們將專案總完成度提前至 50% 以上。我對我們與 Bechtel 在第三階段繼續取得的進展感到非常高興，並且我對隨著時間的推移進一步改善進度充滿信心。

We took some important steps last year in preparation for Stage 3 to commence commissioning and operations. Construction on the ADCC pipeline being built from Aqua Dulce to support Stage 3 is progressing well and the pipeline is expected to be in service in the third quarter in advance of Train 1's accelerated startup.

去年，我們採取了一些重要措施，為第三階段的調試和營運做好準備。為支援第三階段工程而從 Aqua Dulce 建造的 ADCC 管道工程進展順利，預計管道將在第三季度投入使用，並提前於一號列車的加速啟動。

In addition, in the second half of last year, we purchased for approximately $100 million an existing 400-megawatt power plant in Corpus Christi, which is located in our property in order to help mitigate risks associated with our increased power purchasing needs once Stage 3 commences operations. These milestones, coupled with the construction progress on the project reinforces my confidence in Stage 3's time line, improving over time with first LNG this year and meaningful LNG production added to our portfolio in 2025.

此外，去年下半年，我們以約 1 億美元的價格購買了位於科珀斯克里斯蒂的一座現有的 400 兆瓦發電廠，該發電廠位於我們的財產內，以幫助減輕第三階段開始運營後與我們增加的電力購買需求相關的風險。這些里程碑加上專案建設進度增強了我對第三階段時間表的信心，隨著今年第一批液化天然氣的產出和 2025 年液化天然氣產量的增加，這一時間表將隨著時間的推移而改善。

Our commercial momentum continued in 2023 as LNG buyers, the world over help get the commercialization of the SPL expansion project off to an incredibly promising start. We have signed long-term agreements with 6 counterparties across Asia, Europe and Canada, for an aggregate of over 6.5 million tons per annum, effectively commercializing all of Train 7.

在世界各地的液化天然氣買家的幫助下，SPL 擴建項目的商業化取得了令人難以置信的良好開端，我們的商業勢頭在 2023 年得以延續。我們與亞洲、歐洲和加拿大的 6 家公司簽署了長期協議，總計每年超過 650 萬噸，有效地實現了第 7 號生產線全部商業化。

We are encouraged by the market's early reception, especially since the majority of these counterparties are repeat customers. I view it as a recognition of the value of Cheniere's reputation. We are focused on furthering development of the project in 2024 across commercialization, regulatory and financing work streams with a focus on submitting our full permit application with the FERC before the end of this quarter.

我們對市場早期的接受度感到鼓舞，特別是因為這些交易對手中的大多數都是回頭客。我認為這是對切尼爾聲譽價值的認可。我們專注於在 2024 年進一步推進該專案的商業化、監管和融資工作流程，並專注於在本季度末向聯邦能源管理委員會提交完整的許可申請。

Throughout 2023, Zach and his team continue to execute on the 2020 Vision capital allocation plan, making significant progress across the key pillars of the plan, debt reduction, capital return and disciplined growth investments. We've paid down over $1 billion of debt and achieved investment-grade ratings throughout our structure. We bought back almost 10 million shares for approximately $1.5 billion in declared dividends of $1.66 per share, and we invested approximately $1.5 billion into Stage 3.

在整個 2023 年，札克和他的團隊將繼續執行 2020 年願景資本配置計劃，並在該計劃的關鍵支柱、債務削減、資本回報和有紀律的成長投資方面取得重大進展。我們已經償還了超過 10 億美元的債務，整個結構都獲得了投資等級評級。我們以每股 1.66 美元的已宣布股息回購了近 1000 萬股，價值約 15 億美元，並且我們向第三階段投資了約 15 億美元。

We've made great strides on the comprehensive plan since announcing it in late 2022.

自 2022 年底宣布綜合計畫以來，我們取得了長足進步。

And now turning our focus and attention to 2024, I am pleased to introduce our 2024 financial guidance of $5.5 billion to $6.0 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion in distributable cash flow and $3.15 to $3.35 per unit distribution of CQP.

現在將我們的焦點和注意力轉向 2024 年，我很高興介紹我們 2024 年的財務指導，即合併調整後 EBITDA 為 55 億美元至 60 億美元，可分配現金流為 29 億美元至 34 億美元，每單位 CQP 分配為 3.15 美元至 3.35 美元。

We again are forecasting annual results that are above the midpoint of our run rate 9 Train guidance, and our expected results this year have a tremendous amount of visibility given on how highly contracted we are. On the CQP distribution guidance consistent with the prior messaging, we intend to maintain the 310 base distribution and it just a variable component beginning in 2024 in order to begin preserving some cash and fortifying the CQP balance sheet as the SPL expansion project gains momentum.

我們再次預測年度業績將高於我們的運行率 9 Train 指導的中點，而且考慮到我們的合約程度，我們今年的預期業績具有很大的可視性。關於與先前的消息一致的 CQP 分配指導，我們打算維持 310 個基本分配，並且它只是從 2024 年開始的一個可變組成部分，以便在 SPL 擴展項目獲得動力時開始保留一些現金並加強 CQP 資產負債表。

Zach will provide more details on the '24 guidance in a few minutes.

扎克將在幾分鐘內提供有關 24 年指導的更多詳細資訊。

Turn now to Slide 6, where I will address the DOE news in our response. As you're all aware, the Department of Energy recently announced it would suspend making determinations on authorizations for LNG exports to non-free trade agreement countries, pending an update to the economic and environmental analysis underpinning its public interest determination methodology.

現在翻到幻燈片 6，我將在我們的回應中討論 DOE 新聞。大家知道，能源部最近宣布，將暫停對向非自由貿易協定國家出口液化天然氣的授權作出決定，等待對其公共利益判定方法所依據的經濟和環境分析進行更新。

While this decision does not currently impact our expansion projects or our FERC processes, at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, it does introduce regulatory and permitting uncertainty into the U.S. LNG industry as a whole. I firmly believe that a fair and transparent regulatory framework is essential for the future development of natural gas infrastructure in the United States, particularly liquefaction capacity, given the scale of investment, commercial support and time required to bring these projects online.

雖然這項決定目前並不影響我們的擴建項目或聯邦能源管理委員會流程，但在薩賓帕斯和科珀斯克里斯蒂，它確實為整個美國液化天然氣行業帶來了監管和許可的不確定性。我堅信，考慮到投資規模、商業支援和上線這些項目所需的時間，公平透明的監管框架對於美國天然氣基礎設施未來發展，特別是液化能力至關重要。

With that said, we believe we will secure all necessary regulatory approvals for mid-scale Trains 8, 9 and the SPL expansion project within our expected time lines as we have for more than a decade under multiple administrations. To be clear, the DOE action has not slowed down our expansion projects at either site. We are full steam ahead on Corpus Christi Trains 8 and 9 in the SPL expansion project development.

話雖如此，我們相信我們將在預期的時間內獲得中型列車 8、9 和 SPL 擴建項目所有必要的監管批准，就像我們在十多年的多個管理下所做的那樣。需要明確的是，能源部的行動並沒有減緩我們在任何一個地點的擴建計畫。我們正全力推動 SPL 擴建工程開發中的 Corpus Christi 8 號和 9 號列車。

We expect to file the FERC application for SPL very soon. The Corpus Christi Trains 8 and 9 are in advanced stages in the FERC approval process. The environmental assessment for Trains 8 and 9 is scheduled for receipt by the end of March, and we just received a letter of determination from FEMSA, a key agency in the FERC process last week. We remain confident that our previous time lines won't be materially impacted and we will maximize the efficiency with having Bechtel on-site already through Stage 3.

我們預計很快就會向 FERC 提交 SPL 申請。科珀斯克里斯蒂 8 號和 9 號列車的聯邦能源管理委員會審批程序目前已進入後期階段。 8 號和 9 號列車的環境評估預計在 3 月底收到，我們上週剛收到了 FERC 流程中一個關鍵機構 FEMSA 的決定信。我們堅信，我們之前的時間表不會受到重大影響，我們將通過第三階段讓 Bechtel 進入現場來最大程度地提高效率。

Having spent the last 8 years at Cheniere, I have never been more confident in the critical role of U.S. LNG in the global energy market. And I firmly believe the DOE studies will come to the same conclusion given: one, the importance of long-term energy security; two, the opportunities for global decarbonization through coal to gas switching for power generation in the critical role that dispatchable gas-fired power plants plays in backstopping intermittent renewables; three, low and stable domestic natural gas prices and of course; four, for the incredible economic benefits created in the communities where we live and work.

在切尼爾能源公司工作了 8 年後，我從未像現在這樣堅信美國液化天然氣在全球能源市場中的關鍵作用。我堅信美國能源部的研究會得出同樣的結論：一、長期能源安全的重要性；二、透過煤改氣發電實現全球脫碳的機會，因為可調度的燃氣發電廠在支持間歇性可再生能源方面發揮著關鍵作用；三、國內天然氣價格低而穩定；四、為我們生活和工作的社區創造了令人難以置信的經濟效益。

Global energy markets are calling for additional LNG supply. The U.S. is significantly advanced (inaudible) answer this call with our abundant and low-cost natural resources, flexibility and affordability of U.S. volumes and until recently, the reliability and certainty of the U.S. regulatory regime.

全球能源市場需要增加液化天然氣供應。美國憑藉著豐富且低成本的自然資源、靈活性和可承受性的產量，以及直到最近美國監管制度的可靠性和確定性，在響應這一號召方面取得了顯著的進步（聽不清楚）。

Gulf Coast LNG positions the U.S. as a leader in facilitating energy security and worldwide emissions reductions. This is a generational opportunity, something we should be proud of and working to maximize, not restrict.

墨西哥灣沿岸液化天然氣計畫使美國成為促進能源安全和全球減排的領導者。這是一個世代相傳的機遇，我們應該為此感到自豪，並努力將其最大化，而不是限制。

With that, I'll hand it over to Anatol to discuss the LNG market. Thank you all again for your continued support of Cheniere.

說完這些，我將把話題交給阿納托爾 (Anatol) 來討論液化天然氣市場。再次感謝大家對 Cheniere 的持續支持。

Thanks, Jack, and good morning, everyone. The global LNG market continued to rebalance throughout '23 as Europe navigated its energy crisis and Asia adapted to the delicate new market equilibrium amid some regional economic headwinds. Global LNG trade grew by approximately 3% from '22, adding 10.5 million tons of supply to the overall market. Aside from 2020, global supply growth has not been this low since 2011 through 2015 period.

謝謝，傑克，大家早安。隨著歐洲度過能源危機，亞洲在一些區域經濟逆風的影響下適應微妙的新市場平衡，全球液化天然氣市場在23年繼續重新平衡。全球液化天然氣貿易量較22年成長約3%，為整體市場增加了1,050萬噸的供應量。除 2020 年外，自 2011 年至 2015 年期間，全球供應成長率從未如此低。

Nevertheless, this increase in supply was broadly matched by an increase in Asian demand, which grew approximately 4% year-over-year to approximately 263 million tons per annum as the region furthers its post-pandemic return. On the supply side, only one new train came online in '23 globally, the third train at Tangguh LNG in Indonesia. Most of the growth in LNG output last year actually came from the continued ramp-up of existing projects in the U.S.

然而，供應量的成長與亞洲需求量的成長大致相匹配，隨著亞洲地區在疫情後進一步復甦，亞洲需求量年增約 4%，達到每年約 2.63 億噸。在供應方面，2023年全球僅有一列新列車上線，即印尼 Tangguh LNG 的第三列列車。去年液化天然氣產量的大部分增長實際上來自於美國現有項目的持續增加。

The U.S. exported 86 million tons last year, becoming the world's largest exporter in 2023, ahead of Australia and Qatar for the first time, and more than half of those volumes were produced by Cheniere. In the fourth quarter alone, U.S. exports reached record highs of nearly 24 million tons contributing to the global markets rebalancing.

美國去年出口了 8,600 萬噸煤炭，將在 2023 年首次超過澳洲和卡達，成為全球最大出口國，其中一半以上的煤炭出口量由切尼爾能源公司生產。僅在第四季度，美國出口就達到了近2,400萬噸的歷史新高，為全球市場的再平衡做出了貢獻。

Despite persistent geopolitical address globally and the continued phaseout of Russian pipe gas in Europe, spot price levels have decreased this winter compared to last year due to a combination of mild weather, macroeconomic fundamentals, high storage levels and sufficient LNG supply availability.

儘管全球地緣政治局勢持續緊張以及俄羅斯管道天然氣在歐洲的逐步淘汰，但由於氣候溫和、宏觀經濟基本面、存儲量高以及液化天然氣供應充足等因素，今年冬季的現貨價格水平與去年相比有所下降。

In the fourth quarter, TTF averaged $13.66 an M and JKM $14.97, both significantly lower than levels seen in the previous 2 years, and both have continued to trend down through the first quarter of this year. Henry Hub benchmark also decreased in the fourth quarter, falling to an average of $2.88 an M. For the full year 2023, TTF monthly settlement prices averaged $13.73 in MMBtu over 66% lower year-over-year and 4.6% lower than 2021.

第四季度，TTF 平均每月 13.66 美元，JKM 平均每月 14.97 美元，均大幅低於前兩年的水平，且今年第一季均呈下降趨勢。亨利中心基準價格在第四季也有所下降，平均降至 2.88 美元/百萬英熱單位。 2023 年全年，TTF 月結算價格平均為 13.73 美元（百萬英熱單位），年減 66% 以上，比 2021 年下降 4.6%。

Similarly, the '23 average settlement price for JKM decreased 53% year-over-year to an average of $16.13 while the Henry Hub average settlement price was $2.74, down approximately 59% from $6.64 in 2022 during the height of the energy crisis in Europe.

同樣，JKM 的 '23 年平均結算價格同比下降 53% 至平均 16.13 美元，而亨利中心的平均結算價格為 2.74 美元，比 2022 年歐洲能源危機最嚴重時期的 6.64 美元下降約 59%。

Let's address the regional dynamics on the next page. With more than 65% of all U.S. LNG volumes in 2023 flowing in Europe, the region's underground storage inventories remained elevated throughout the year, easing concerns about physical market tightness amid further reductions in all other sources of gas supply to the region. Total gas supply to Europe fell 56 bcm year-on-year due mostly to the continued reduction in Russian flows, as well as heavy upstream maintenance in Norway further affecting pipe gas supply.

讓我們在下一頁討論區域動態。由於 2023 年美國 65% 以上的液化天然氣將流向歐洲，該地區的地下儲存庫存全年都保持高位，在該地區所有其他天然氣供應來源進一步減少的情況下，緩解了人們對實體市場緊張的擔憂。歐洲天然氣總供應量較去年同期下降560億立方米，主要原因是俄羅斯天然氣供應量持續減少，以及挪威上游天然氣維護工作進一步影響了管道天然氣供應。

Nonetheless, storage levels ended the calendar year at 86% full the second highest level for the period since storage data became available in 2011. Meanwhile, gas demand in the region's key markets continued to drop, declining by 9% year-on-year in 2023, following a 12% reduction in 2022. The power sector accounted for nearly half of these reductions amid relatively mild temperatures, continued conservation efforts improving nuclear performance and growth in renewable generation.

儘管如此，截至年底，儲存水準仍達到 86%，這是自 2011 年儲存資料可用以來的第二高水準。同時，該地區主要市場的天然氣需求持續下降，繼 2022 年下降 12% 之後，2023 年將年減 9%。由於氣溫相對溫和，持續的節能努力提高了核能性能，以及再生能源發電的成長，電力產業佔了這些減排量的近一半。

And aside from Germany, industrial demand reductions appear to have bottomed out in '23 throughout the region. In Asia, as I mentioned, LNG demand grew by 4% or 9 million tons year-on-year, thanks to resurgence in demand from China and other emerging economies throughout Asia. Most of the uptick in Asia's demand was largely due to a rebound in China's economy, which resulted in a 7.5% year-on-year increase in gas consumption. It was up 27 bcm.

除德國外，整個地區的工業需求減少似乎已在2023年觸底。正如我所提到的，在亞洲，由於中國和亞洲其他新興經濟體的需求復甦，液化天然氣需求年增了 4% 或 900 萬噸。亞洲需求的成長主要得益於中國經濟的反彈，導致天然氣消費量較去年同期成長7.5%。增加了270億立方米。

Despite a 13 bcm increase in domestic gas output and the scheduled 7 bcm ramp-up in the Power of Siberia flows last year, China's reliance on LNG remained high at 25% of total gas supply. The country's imports rebounded by about 12% to 71 million tons last year, about 8.5 million tons below the peak 2021 levels. We continue to expect gradual but continued growth in gas consumption that will increase the call on LNG going forward.

儘管去年國內天然氣產量增加了130億立方米，「西伯利亞力量」天然氣產量按計畫增加了70億立方米，但中國對液化天然氣的依賴仍然很高，佔天然氣總供應量的25%。去年，該國進口量反彈約 12%，至 7,100 萬噸，比 2021 年的峰值水準低約 850 萬噸。我們預計天然氣消費量將繼續緩慢成長，這將增加未來對液化天然氣的需求。

In addition to China, an approximately 8.5 million ton year-on-year increase in South and Southeast Asia imports also contributed to growing global demand last year. Thailand and India led the charge as LNG spot prices moderated and demand for gas-fired power generation reached record levels in India. Additionally, 3 new receiving terminals started in this region, given the nascent import markets in the Philippines and Vietnam access to LNG, which we believe will help power their economies for years to come.

除中國外，南亞和東南亞進口量年增約850萬噸也助長了去年全球需求的成長。由於液化天然氣現貨價格放緩且印度對天然氣發電的需求達到創紀錄水平，泰國和印度引領了這一趨勢。此外，鑑於菲律賓和越南新興的液化天然氣進口市場，該地區已啟動3個新的接收終端，我們相信這將有助於在未來幾年推動其經濟發展。

LNG demand growth in Asia was partially offset by the reduced demand for LNG in Japan due to lower electricity demand and increased nuclear availability. In Japan, 2 nuclear reactors restarted in '23, increasing available nuclear capacity to the highest level since the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

由於電力需求下降和核能利用率提高，日本液化天然氣需求減少，部分抵消了亞洲液化天然氣需求的成長。在日本，2023年重啟了兩座核反應爐，使可用核電容量達到2011年福島災難以來的最高水準。

This is a structural trend in Japan that we expect will continue to impact gas-fired power generation and consequently, LNG imports over time.

這是日本的結構性趨勢，我們預計它將隨著時間的推移持續影響燃氣發電，並進而影響液化天然氣進口。

Let's move to the next slide where we'll consider the outlook for gas in these and other economies. As discussed, global gas demand in '23 remained relatively flat, growing by 20 bcm or 0.5% amid tight global supplies and historically elevated prices.

讓我們進入下一張幻燈片，我們將討論這些經濟體和其他經濟體的天然氣前景。如上所述，在全球供應緊張和價格創歷史新高的情況下，23年全球天然氣需求保持相對平穩，成長200億立方公尺或0.5%。

In contrast, global demand for coal was up 1.4% on the back of increased use in emerging and developing economies. Given the DOE action related to climate that Jack already discussed, it's worth highlighting here the simple fact that for the second year in a row, global coal consumption hit a new all-time record.

相較之下，由於新興經濟體和發展中經濟體煤炭使用量增加，全球煤炭需求增加了 1.4%。鑑於傑克已經討論過的能源部與氣候相關的行動，值得強調的一個簡單的事實是，全球煤炭消費量連續第二年創下了歷史新高。

Coal-fired power generation increased in '23 despite continued coal-to-gas switching in the U.S., notable declines in Europe and significant growth in renewable generation overall, which rose over 22% globally. As shown in the lower left, more than half of the power demand growth in China and India in '23 was supplied by coal.

儘管美國持續進行煤改氣，歐洲發電量明顯下降，而全球再生能源發電量整體大幅成長（增幅超過 22%），但 23 年燃煤發電量仍有所增加。如左下角所示，1923年中國和印度的電力需求成長中有一半以上是由煤炭滿足的。

Coal-fired generation from these 2 nations alone increased by 419 terawatt hours, which is roughly equivalent to the total power generation for the entire country of France and more than 80% of the entire growth in renewable power generation seen last year. While China and India remain committed to growing gas as a primary energy source in their respective economies, tight gas supplies and higher-than-normal global LNG prices in recent years, have impacted the pace of potential gas consumption growth in these developing economies.

光是這兩個國家的燃煤發電量就增加了419太瓦時，大致相當於法國全國的發電總量，佔去年再生能源發電量成長的80%以上。儘管中國和印度仍致力於將天然氣作為各自經濟體的主要能源，但近年來天然氣供應緊張和全球液化天然氣價格高於正常水平，已經影響到這些發展中經濟體潛在天然氣消費的成長速度。

More broadly, coal remains the largest source of power generation globally and represents about 2/3 of power sector emissions and about 1/4 of total emissions globally. With power demand expected to double by 2050, any hope of achieving global decarbonization and clean energy targets will require further displacement of coal use wherever possible, especially in countries like China and India.

更廣泛地說，煤炭仍然是全球最大的發電來源，約佔電力產業排放量的2/3和全球總排放量的1/4。預計到2050年，電力需求將翻一番，任何​​實現全球脫碳和清潔能源目標的希望都需要盡可能進一步取代煤炭的使用，特別是在中國和印度等國家。

As Jack noted, natural gas holds a critical role in helping achieve these goals over the coming decades, which we expect will result in robust increases in demand for natural gas over that period as shown by the outlooks on the central chart. The fast-growing economies in the Asia Pacific region are expected to play the greatest role in powering gas demand beyond the 2040s.

正如傑克所指出的，天然氣在未來幾十年對實現這些目標起著至關重要的作用，我們預計這將導致該時期對天然氣的需求強勁增長，如中央圖表中的前景所示。預計亞太地區快速成長的經濟體將在 2040 年代後對天然氣需求發揮最大作用。

When demand from Europe and the developed world could possibly be in modest decline and regional gas supplies in Asia further deplete.

歐洲和已開發國家的需求可能會略有下降，而亞洲地區的天然氣供應將進一步枯竭。

The outlook for global gas demand should remain robust going into the second half of the century because natural gas is an affordable, reliable and sustainable solution that will serve to displace coal and support the deployment of intermittent renewable energy sources. As such, in '23 alone, we have executed over 6.5 million tons per annum of long-term agreements representing over 119 million tons in aggregate volume of LNG between 2026 and 2050.

進入本世紀下半葉，全球天然氣需求前景仍將保持強勁，因為天然氣是一種經濟實惠、可靠且可持續的解決方案，可取代煤炭並支持間歇性再生能源的部署。因此，僅在2023年，我們每年就執行了超過650萬噸的長期協議，這意味著2026年至2050年期間的液化天然氣總量將超過1.19億噸。

The majority of which are with repeat customers and are structured to meet each customer's unique long-term objectives. These investment-grade counterparties include North American producers, portfolio players and Asian and European end users, all of which seek secure, cleaner and affordable and flexible supply.

其中大多數是回頭客，旨在滿足每個客戶獨特的長期目標。這些投資級交易對手包括北美生產商、投資組合參與者以及亞洲和歐洲的最終用戶，他們都在尋求安全、清潔、實惠且靈活的供應。

Our customers sign up for decades of LNG from Cheniere because they believe in the long-term role of natural gas, and they believe in Cheniere's ability to deliver the LNG reliably and responsibly. Looking ahead to '24 as the market continues to stabilize and achieve the stable pricing necessary to ensure market access and adoption, we anticipate our premium products will continue to have broad-based appeal.

我們的客戶與切尼爾能源公司簽約數十年的液化天然氣，因為他們相信天然氣的長期作用，也相信切尼爾能源公司可靠、負責任地輸送液化天然氣的能力。展望2024年，隨著市場繼續穩定並實現確保市場准入和採用所必需的穩定定價，我們預計我們的優質產品將繼續具有廣泛的吸引力。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Zach to review our financial results and guidance.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給扎克，來審查我們的財務結果和指導。

Thanks, Anatol, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be here today to review our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results and key financial accomplishments and introduce our financial guidance for 2024.

謝謝，阿納托爾，大家早安。我很高興今天能在這裡回顧我們 2023 年第四季和全年的業績和主要財務成就，並介紹我們 2024 年的財務指導。

Turning to Slide 12. For the fourth quarter and full year 2023, we generated net income of approximately $1.4 billion and $9.9 billion, consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.65 billion and $8.8 billion and distributable cash flow of approximately $1.1 billion and $6.5 billion, respectively.

轉到第 12 張投影片。 2023 年第四季和全年，我們的淨收入分別為約 14 億美元和 99 億美元，合併調整後 EBITDA 分別為約 16.5 億美元和 88 億美元，可分配現金流量分別為約 11 億美元和 65 億美元。

With today's results, our full year consolidated adjusted EBITDA results were at the high end of our most recent guidance range, and we exceeded the high end of the range on distributable cash flow mainly attributed to higher margins captured on open capacity and optimization upstream and downstream of the plants.

根據今天的結果，我們全年合併調整後 EBITDA 結果處於我們最新指導範圍的高位，並且可分配現金流超過了該範圍的高位，這主要歸因於開放產能和工廠上下游優化帶來的更高利潤率。

In addition, we have now reported positive net income on a quarterly and cumulative trailing 4-quarter basis, 5 quarters in a row. As compared to 2022, our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results continue to reflect a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts with less volumes being sold into short-term markets as well as the further moderation of international gas prices relative to what we experienced in 2022.

此外，我們現在已連續 5 個季度報告季度淨收入和過去 4 個季度累計淨收入為正。與 2022 年相比，我們第四季度和 2023 年全年的業績繼續反映出我們根據長期合約銷售的液化天然氣比例更高，而銷往短期市場的量減少，以及國際天然氣價格相對於我們在 2022 年經歷的進一步緩和。

These impacts were partially offset by certain portfolio optimization activities that our teams were able to achieve throughout the year.

這些影響被我們的團隊全年完成的某些投資組合優化活動部分抵消。

During the fourth quarter and full year, we recognized an income 618 and 2,353 TBtu of physical LNG, respectively, which included 607 and 2,318 TBtu from our projects a record for the full year and 11 and 35 TBtu sourced from third parties, respectively.

在第四季度和全年，我們分別確認了 618 和 2,353 TBtu 的實物液化天然氣收入，其中包括來自我們專案的 607 和 2,318 TBtu（創全年最高紀錄），以及來自第三方的 11 和 35 TBtu。

Approximately 90% and 87% of these LNG volumes recognized in income were sold under long-term SPA or IPM agreements with initial terms greater than 10 years, respectively.

其中約 90% 和 87% 的已確認收入的液化天然氣是根據長期 SPA 或 IPM 協議出售的，初始期限超過 10 年。

While we have many significant achievements to highlight from 2023, I'm particularly proud of my team's focused execution on our 2020 vision capital allocation plan.

雖然我們在 2023 年取得了許多重大成就，但我對我的團隊專注於執行 2020 年願景資本配置計畫感到特別自豪。

We deployed approximately $5 billion towards balance sheet management, shareholder returns and accretive growth in 2023 alone, while maintaining strong available liquidity going into this year. In aggregate, since updating our capital allocation plan in September 2022, with a target of $20 billion of cash deployment through 2026 and $20 per share of run rate DCF we have now deployed over $8 billion.

僅在 2023 年，我們就部署了約 50 億美元用於資產負債表管理、股東回報和增值成長，同時在今年保持了強勁的可用流動性。總體而言，自 2022 年 9 月更新我們的資本配置計劃以來，我們的目標是到 2026 年部署 200 億美元的現金，每股 20 美元的運行率 DCF，現在我們已部署超過 80 億美元。

Execution under the plan got off to a fast start in early 2023 when we achieved investment-grade ratings at both of our parent entities bringing the entire Cheniere complex to investment-grade status. And in June, we issued our inaugural corporate investment-grade bond, placing $1.4 billion of unsecured notes at CQP.

該計劃的實施在 2023 年初迅速啟動，當時我們的兩個母公司都獲得了投資級評級，使整個 Cheniere 綜合體都達到了投資級地位。今年 6 月份，我們發行了首支企業投資等級債券，在 CQP 發行了價值 14 億美元的無擔保票據。

These milestones follow approximately $8 billion of deleveraging over the last 3 years from approximately $32 billion of debt at our peak to now under $24 billion. During the fourth quarter, we repaid $50 million of long-term indebtedness, further redeeming a portion of the senior secured notes due in 2024 at SPL and bringing our total long-term debt paydown for the year to approximately $1.2 billion.

這些里程碑是在過去 3 年內我們進行了約 80 億美元的去槓桿之後實現的，債務總額從巔峰時期的約 320 億美元降至現在的 240 億美元以下。在第四季度，我們償還了 5,000 萬美元的長期債務，進一步贖回了 SPL 於 2024 年到期的部分優先擔保票據，使我們全年的長期債務償還總額達到約 12 億美元。

We plan to address the remaining balance of the SPL 2024 notes with cash on hand within CQP early this year after which point we will have addressed all maturities in the complex for the year. We have already begun strategizing around the 2025 maturities we have at both SBL and CCH. And as always, we will evaluate opportunities to efficiently refinance or delever throughout the year.

我們計劃在今年年初使用 CQP 內的現金解決 SPL 2024 票據的剩餘餘額，此後我們將在當年解決該綜合體中的所有到期債務。我們已經開始針對 SBL 和 CCH 的 2025 年到期債務制定策略。像往常一樣，我們將全年評估有效再融資或去槓桿的機會。

The buyback plan is working as designed and enabling us to be opportunistic. During the fourth quarter and full year 2023, we repurchased an aggregate of approximately 2 million and 9.5 million shares of common stock for approximately $339 million and $1.5 billion, respectively. As the share price has provided greater opportunities so far this year compared to the fourth quarter 2023, deployment under the share repurchase plan has accelerated.

回購計劃正在按計劃進行，使我們能夠抓住機會。在 2023 年第四季和全年，我們分別以約 3.39 億美元和 15 億美元回購了總計約 200 萬股和 950 萬股普通股。由於今年迄今股價與 2023 年第四季相比提供了更大的機會，因此股票回購計畫下的部署已經加速。

And year-to-date, or in just 1.5 months or so, we have already deployed nearly $500 million, which is more than we did in any quarter in 2023, repurchasing almost 3 million shares so far bringing our total shares outstanding to under 235 million currently. We will continue deploying the now under $2 billion remaining under the plan over the next year or so, with the expectation we will get to the cumulative 1:1 share repurchase to debt paydown ratio and complete the current $4 billion authorization ahead of its 3-year window, at which point, the focus will primarily be on updating the buyback plan again with the Board, while maintaining our IG balance sheet across the complex as we prepare for our accretive growth initiatives at Corpus and Sabine in the coming years.

年初至今，或僅僅 1.5 個月左右的時間，我們已經部署了近 5 億美元，這比 2023 年任何一個季度的投入都要多，迄今已回購近 300 萬股，使我們目前的總流通股數低於 2.35 億股。我們將在未來一年左右繼續部署該計劃下剩餘的不到 20 億美元，預期我們將達到累計 1：1 的股票回購與債務償還比率，並在 3 年期限之前完成目前的 40 億美元授權，此時，重點將主要放在與董事會再次更新回購計劃上，同時維持整個綜合體中的 IG 資產負債表，為未來幾年做準備。

We also declared $1.66 per common share in dividends for 2023, a nearly 15% increase year-over-year having increased our quarterly dividend by 10% in Q3, consistent with our stated target of 10% annual dividend growth. Over time, we intend to steadily increase our overall payout ratio as our platform grows while still maintaining the financial flexibility essential to our capital allocation plan and growth objectives.

我們也宣布 2023 年每股普通股的股息為 1.66 美元，年成長近 15%，第三季的季度股息增加了 10%，與我們設定的 10% 年度股息成長目標一致。隨著時間的推移，我們打算隨著平台的發展穩步提高我們的整體派息率，同時仍保持我們的資本配置計劃和成長目標所需的財務靈活性。

During the quarter, we funded approximately $467 million of CapEx at our Stage 3 project, bringing total spend to approximately $1.5 billion for the year and a little over $3 billion in total for the project. While front-loading the equity spend has enabled considerable interest savings, we still have over $3 billion available on our CCH term loan that we plan to utilize over time as the project progresses towards full completion in 2026.

本季度，我們為第三階段項目投入了約 4.67 億美元的資本支出，使全年總支出達到約 15 億美元，項目總支出略高於 30 億美元。雖然前期股權支出可以節省大量利息，但我們仍有超過 30 億美元的 CCH 定期貸款可用，我們計劃隨著專案進展到 2026 年全面完工，逐步使用這些貸款。

And we expect to spend between $1.5 billion and $2 billion in Stage 3 CapEx this year.

我們預計今年第三階段的資本支出將在 15 億至 20 億美元之間。

Turn now to Slide 13, where I will discuss our 2024 guidance and outlook for the year. Today, we are introducing our full year 2024 guidance ranges of $5.5 billion to $6 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA and $2.9 billion to $3.4 billion in distributable cash flow.

現在轉到幻燈片 13，我將在其中討論我們對 2024 年的指導和展望。今天，我們推出了 2024 年全年指引範圍，即合併調整後 EBITDA 55 億美元至 60 億美元，可分配現金流量 29 億美元至 34 億美元。

As we've been clear about on recent calls, 2024 represents our most contracted year-to-date as all contracts signed to underpin our existing 45 million ton platform have commenced as well as some bridging volumes tied to contracts signed in support of our growth projects. It's likely 2024 will represent a trough year for EBITDA after being down sequentially since 2022, and as we expect to move upward post 2024 as Stage 3 commences and eventually reaches run rate in 2026 and beyond.

正如我們在最近的電話會議中明確表示的那樣，2024 年是我們今年迄今為止簽訂的合約最多的一年，因為為支持我們現有的 4500 萬噸平台而簽署的所有合約都已開始，而且一些與為支持我們的增長項目而簽署的合約相關的過渡性合約也已開始。自 2022 年以來，EBITDA 一直連續下降，2024 年很可能成為 EBITDA 的低谷年。我們預計，隨著第 3 階段的開始，EBITDA 將在 2024 年後上升，並最終在 2026 年及以後達到運行率。

With very little unsold capacity remaining throughout the year, these ranges largely reflect our 9 trains run rate guidance adjusted for a higher proportion of volumes sold under long-term contracts or bridging volume as well as some forward selling of spot cargoes at higher international gas prices.

由於全年剩餘未售出運力非常少，這些範圍很大程度上反映了我們的 9 列火車運行率指導，該指導已根據長期合約或過橋運輸量的更高比例以及在更高的國際天然氣價格下現貨貨物的一些遠期銷售進行了調整。

These positive adjustments are partially offset by the prepayment and cancellation of the Chevron TUA and some incremental O&M costs related to our planned maintenance program. We expect to produce approximately 45 million tons of LNG this year, inclusive of planned maintenance at both sites.

這些積極的調整部分被雪佛龍 TUA 的預付和取消以及與我們計劃的維護計劃相關的一些增量 O&M 成本所抵消。我們預計今年將生產約 4,500 萬噸液化天然氣，其中包括兩個工廠的計畫維護。

We remain optimistic we will achieve first LNG from Train 1 of Stage 3 this year, but that would not impact our revenues or EBITDA in 2024 as it will likely remain in commissioning through year-end.

我們仍然樂觀地認為，今年我們將從第三階段第一條生產線產出第一批液化天然氣，但這不會影響我們 2024 年的收入或 EBITDA，因為它可能會一直運行到年底。

In terms of portfolio optimization activities, we include any such transactions already completed in the guidance, but we do not forecast additional (technical difficulty) 2022.

在投資組合優化活動方面，我們將任何已完成的此類交易納入指引，但我們不預測 2022 年會出現額外的（技術難度）。

(inaudible) Remains on track as we continue to execute on the plan this year. And credit goes to our commercial team who have sold our 2% open capacity going into this year, which has come down from 50 TBtu to 15 TBtu since the November call, highlighting that despite the recent drop in global gas indices, our EBITDA forecast remains above the $5.5 billion midpoint of our 9-train run rate guidance.

（聽不清楚）我們今年將繼續執行該計劃，一切進展順利。這要感謝我們的商業團隊，他們在今年出售了我們 2% 的開放產能，自 11 月電話會議以來，這一產能已從 50 TBtu 降至 15 TBtu，這表明儘管近期全球天然氣指數下跌，但我們的 EBITDA 預測仍高於 9 條生產線運行率指導中位數 55 億美元。

As always, our results could be impacted by the timing of certain cargoes around year-end as well as incremental margin from further optimization, upstream and downstream of our facilities. Our distributable cash flow for 2024 could also be affected by any changes in the tax code under the IRA. However, the guidance provided today is based on the current IRA tax law guidance and assumes we qualify for the minimum corporate tax of 15% this year.

像往常一樣，我們的業績可能會受到年底某些貨物運輸時間以及進一步優化我們上下游設施所帶來的增量利潤的影響。我們的 2024 年可分配現金流量也可能受到 IRA 稅法變動的影響。但是，今天提供的指導是基於當前的 IRA 稅法指導，並假設我們今年有資格享受 15% 的最低公司稅。

As the year progresses, we will likely tighten our ranges consistent with what we've done in the last 2 guidance cycles.

隨著時間的推移，我們可能會收緊我們的範圍，與過去兩個指導週期中所做的保持一致。

At CQP, our full year 2024 distribution guidance range is $3.15 to $3.35 per common unit, which maintains our base distribution of $3.10 and a variable distribution of between $0.05 and $0.25. As we have discussed publicly for the last year, by adjusting the variable component of our base plus variable distribution this year, we are preserving cash and balance sheet capacity at CQP in anticipation of funding the $10-plus billion SPL expansion project according to our disciplined capital investment parameters, which call for financing the project 50% with cash flow while maintaining investment-grade ratings at both SPL and CQP, all within the traditional MLP structure.

在 CQP，我們 2024 年全年分配指引範圍為每股 3.15 美元至 3.35 美元，這將維持我們的基本分配 3.10 美元和 0.05 美元至 0.25 美元之間的可變分配。正如我們去年公開討論的那樣，透過調整今年基數的可變部分加上可變分配，我們將保留 CQP 的現金和資產負債表容量，以期根據我們嚴格的資本投資參數為 100 多億美元的 SPL 擴建項目提供資金，這要求通過現金流為項目提供 50% 的融資，同時在傳統的 MLP 結構內保持 SPL 和 CQP 的投資級。

This deep view guidance keeps us on our previously assumed FID time line and should be viewed as an indication of our confidence in the attractiveness and viability of the SPL expansion project. In the near term, deleveraging at CQP or SPL can be considered early investments in the SPL expansion project until we are in a position to formally sanction the project, raise financing and begins construction, which we plan for in 2026.

這種深度觀點指引使我們保持在先前假設的 FID 時間表上，並應被視為我們對 SPL 擴建項目的吸引力和可行性充滿信心的標誌。短期內，CQP 或 SPL 的去槓桿可視為對 SPL 擴建專案的早期投資，直到我們能夠正式批准該專案、籌集融資並開始建造（我們計劃在 2026 年實現）。

We expect the accretive SPL expansion project could increase the run rate distributable cash flow at CQP to over $5 per unit, a win not only for CQP unitholders, but LNG shareholders as well. Since we are in the high splits of the MLP, meaning approximately 75% of the incremental cash flow would accrue to CEI and further meaningfully increase our run rate DCF per share target over time as it was not baked into the original 2020 vision.

我們預計，SPL 擴建專案的增值性可以提高 CQP 的可分配現金流量運行率至每單位 5 美元以上，這不僅對 CQP 單位持有人有利，對 LNG 股東也有利。由於我們處於 MLP 的高分割率，這意味著大約 75% 的增量現金流將歸於 CEI，並且隨著時間的推移，進一步顯著提高我們的每股 DCF 運行率目標，因為它並未納入最初的 2020 年願景。

Looking beyond this year, the Cheniere story remains the same. Our highly contracted business model is built upon long-duration, fixed fee, investment-grade take-or-pay style cash flows, which underpinned the $40 billion natural gas infrastructure platform we operate today. As we pursue brownfield expansions, our approach will be consistent with that of the first over 55 million tons adhering to our disciplined investment parameters so that our cash flows and our value proposition remain insulated from whatever transitory supply and demand imbalances may occur over the next decade plus.

展望今年以後，切尼爾的故事依然一樣。我們高度契約化的商業模式建立在長期、固定費用、投資等級的照付不議式現金流之上，這支撐了我們今天營運的價值 400 億美元的天然氣基礎設施平台。在我們進行棕地擴張的過程中，我們的方法將與前 5500 多萬噸的方法一致，遵守嚴格的投資參數，以便我們的現金流和價值主張不受未來十多年可能出現的任何暫時供需失衡的影響。

Our company provides investors with exposure to LNG the theme more so than the commodity, and it is inherent stability and long-term visibility in our contracted cash flows, growth and shareholder returns that should enable us to continue to deliver meaningful value to our stakeholders for decades to come.

我們公司為投資者提供的是液化天然氣這一主題而非大宗商品的投資機會，而且我們合約現金流、成長和股東回報的固有穩定性和長期可見性使我們能夠在未來幾十年繼續為我們的利益相關者提供有意義的價值。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Thank you for your time and your interest in Cheniere. Operator, we are ready to open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。感謝您的時間和對 Cheniere 的關注。接線員，我們已經準備好接受提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

We'll go first to John Mackay with Goldman Sachs.

我們先請高盛的約翰‧麥凱 (John Mackay) 發言。

I appreciate the color you guys gave on the '24 guide and that you're already above the kind of 9 Train run rate. But maybe you could just spend another minute talking through what kind of gets you to the low end of the range versus the high end of the range. It's about the same $500 million ranges you gave for '23, but there were more open volumes unsold at that point. So maybe just kind of walk through those dynamics.

我很欣賞你們在 24 指南中給出的色彩，而且你們已經超過了 9 列火車的運行率。但也許您可以再花一分鐘來討論一下什麼可以讓您達到範圍的低端，什麼可以讓您達到範圍的高端。它與您給出的 23 年 5 億美元的範圍大致相同，但當時未售出的未結股票數量更多。因此也許只是稍微回顧一下這些動態。

John, it's Zach. And I'll just say the $500 million range is basically, we're keeping the same cadence that we've had for the last couple of years with the $500 million. It's still under 10% of the EBITDA. But it's safe to assume that we're going to start right now around the midpoint of that range. And from there, I would say there's a few variables even though the open capacity is so small and $1 CMI move in margins is only $15 million.

約翰，我是札克。我只想說，5 億美元的範圍基本上與我們過去幾年 5 億美元的節奏保持一致。它仍低於 EBITDA 的 10%。但可以肯定地說，我們現在就將從該範圍的中點開始。從那裡，我想說儘管開放容量如此之小並且 1 美元的 CMI 利潤變動僅為 1500 萬美元，但仍存在一些變數。

With most of the year still ahead of us, $1 move in Henry Hub can move EBITDA in the lifting margin by around $100 million and just year-end timing of deliveries, that can move things around $100 million as well even though a lot of those end-of-year cargoes are even locked in at pretty attractive rates by the team.

由於今年的大部分時間還在繼續，亨利港 1 美元的變動就可使 EBITDA 的提升利潤率增加約 1 億美元，而僅僅是年底的交貨時間，也可以使利潤率產生約 1 億美元的變動，儘管很多年底的貨物甚至已被團隊以相當誘人的價格鎖定。

When it comes to the upside and downside to the high end and low end, on the low end, it would really have to be something unforeseen today operationally that got us that close to the low end, considering how locked in we are.

當涉及高端和低端的上行和下行時，在低端，考慮到我們被鎖定的程度，這確實必須是今天運營上無法預見的某些事情才使我們如此接近低端。

So it would be maybe a longer maintenance cycle than we even had last year, which we don't foresee or a tougher hurricane season or something of that sort.

因此，今年的維護週期可能會比去年更長，這是我們無法預見的，或者會遭遇更嚴峻的颶風季節或諸如此類的情況。

On the upstream -- on the upside, I'd just say we've been very clear from the get-go. We don't guide on optimization, upstream and downstream of the plants that's not locked in. So as that accrues, ideally through the year, even though margins are lower, Henry Hub is lower and volatility has moderated that should help us get to the upside. And then yes, we'll stay optimistic on seeing if we can get a couple more cargoes out through the course of the year.

在上游——從好的方面來說，我只想說我們從一開始就已經非常清楚了。我們不會對未鎖定的工廠的上游和下游進行最佳化指導。因此，隨著這個數字的累積，理想情況下是全年，即使利潤率較低，亨利港也較低，波動性已經緩和，這應該有助於我們實現上行。是的，我們將保持樂觀，看看我們是否能在年內運出更多的貨物。

I appreciate all that detail. Maybe just a follow-up and maybe this one is for Anatol. There's been obviously, a lot of focus in the market on kind of the next 3, 3.5 years for the LNG market with U.S. and Qatar supply coming online and the demand picture maybe not warming up as fast as we would have hoped. I understand the kind of long-term dynamics you talked about earlier in the call. But maybe just spend a couple of minutes walking through what you see as this kind of medium-term outlook. And maybe what the supply-demand balance looks like around the back half of this decade?

我很欣賞這些細節。也許只是後續，也許這一個是給阿納托爾的。顯然，市場非常關注未來 3 到 3.5 年的液化天然氣市場，隨著美國和卡達的供應開始增加，需求情況可能不會像我們所希望的那樣快速回暖。我理解您早些時候在通話中談到的長期動態。但也許只需花幾分鐘來回顧一下您所看到的這種中期前景。未來五年的供需平衡情況會是怎樣？

Sure. Thanks, John. Thanks for the questions. I'll start kind of in reverse order. The market will grow what the supply allows it to grow, right? So the 10.5 million tons was a function of that supply coming into the market and being placed where it was most needed at the margin. The things that are encouraging to us, and we see as kind of inexorable trends are the commitments to gas and the investments in long-dated infrastructure.

當然。謝謝，約翰。感謝您的提問。我將按照相反的順序開始。市場會根據供應的成長而成長，對嗎？因此，1050 萬噸意味著供應進入市場，並被放置在最需要的地方。令我們感到鼓舞的事情並且我們認為這是一種不可避免的趨勢是對天然氣的承諾和對長期基礎設施的投資。

Not a month goes by that we don't add a couple of regas terminals and things like gas-fired power plants are very difficult to get -- turbines are difficult to get for years, and that is a function of the deployment of that infrastructure globally. So we prefer a world where LNG is in those high single, low double-digit rates where returns for us are attractive but reasonable and the consumers can get their hands on these attractive Btus.

我們每個月都會增加幾個再氣化終端，而像燃氣發電廠這樣的東西很難獲得——渦輪機多年來一直很難獲得，這是全球基礎設施部署的結果。因此，我們更希望看到液化天然氣價格處於高個位數、低兩位數水平，為我們帶來可觀的回報但又不失合理，而消費者也可以獲得這些具有吸引力的熱量單位。

And as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, are competitive with coal and other generation sources. So we remain very optimistic. You'll see volumes going into South and Southeast Asia. You'll see the marginal kind of elastic demand come back into the market. We're already seeing that even in the early days post the Chinese New Year. And we think that these are trends that will last for decades and decades to come.

正如我們在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，與煤炭和其他發電源具有競爭力。因此我們仍然非常樂觀。你會看到大量貨物流入南亞和東南亞。你會看到邊際彈性需求重新回到市場。早在農曆新年剛過不久，我們就已經看到了這種現象。我們認為這些趨勢將持續數十年。

And we have kind of those commercial -- the commercial engagements with those types of counterparties that are continuing at pace. So we think the market will enjoy absorbing this volume and whether it comes online, on schedule or if things are modestly delayed as they have been historically, we think that the market will show robust growth and ability to absorb this next wave.

我們與這些類型的交易對手之間的商業合作正在持續進行。因此，我們認為市場將樂於吸收這一數量，無論它是按計劃上線，還是像歷史上一樣略有延遲，我們都認為市場將顯示出強勁的增長和吸收下一波浪潮的能力。

We'll go next to Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan.

接下來我們請到摩根大通的傑里米·托內特 (Jeremy Tonet)。

Just wanted to kind of unpack a little bit more on your earlier comments there. When you talked about beating the midpoint of the prior guidance range, I don't know if it's $0.5 billion or so. Just wondering what type of quantum of optimization Cheniere has been able to realize because of volatility in the market, both upstream and downstream operations, what that number looks like?

只是想對您之前的評論進行更深入的解釋。當您談到超過之前指導範圍的中點時，我不知道它是否是 5 億美元左右。只是想知道，由於市場的波動，切尼爾能源公司能夠實現何種程度的最佳化，包括上游和下游運營，這個數字是什麼樣的？

It's been in the hundreds of millions of dollars, Jeremy, in terms of the optimization and I'd say, hundreds of millions of dollars, both in the upstream and downstream side. Mind you, Henry Hub was significantly up in '22, moderated a bit last year and it's even further down today.

傑里米，就優化而言，已經投入了數億美元，我想說，無論是上游還是下游，都投入了數億美元。請注意，亨利中心在 22 年大幅上漲，去年略有放緩，如今則進一步下降。

So we'll see how much can be there. And then on the other side, yes, we have a ton of IPM deals, DES deals. So we'll optimize those as we see fit and subcharter out any of our length in our shipping portfolio, which in the past has added hundreds of millions of dollars, mind you, even that market has moderated as well in terms of the volatility. But when you add those 2 things together, it would really take -- yes, great execution and some opportunistic moments throughout the year for us to get to the high end of the range.

因此我們將看看那裡能有多少。另一方面，是的，我們有大量的 IPM 交易和 DES 交易。因此，我們將根據需要對這些進行優化，並在我們的航運組合中分租任何長度的船舶，請注意，過去這些船舶已經增加了數億美元，即使是那個市場的波動性也已經有所緩和。但是，當你將這兩件事加在一起時，我們確實需要——是的，出色的執行力和全年的一些機會，才能讓我們達到高端。

Got it. So just to be clear there, then hundreds of millions of dollars of synergies or optimization rather, upstream and downstream, both we've seen historically. And that's not really baked into the guidance as we see it today because the guidance really just locks in what you've already locked down. Is that the right way to think about things?

知道了。所以要先明確的是，我們從歷史上就看到過數億美元的協同效應或最佳化，無論是上游或下游。但正如我們今天所看到的，這並沒有真正融入指導中，因為指導實際上只是鎖定了你已經鎖定的內容。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, that's right. We were pretty clear for quite some time now as we thought about this year, it would be the closest we would be to run rate. And considering how proactive we were going into this year and now that we're only down to 15 TBtu, we're still above the midpoint of the run rate range for 9 trains, and we don't even have TUA from Chevron anymore. So this is where we expected it to be. It was baked into the 2020 vision and the $20-plus billion of cash flow through '26. And we'll see how things play out on the optimization side, but it's not baked into this guidance today.

是的，沒錯。我們現在已經非常清楚，當我們想到今年時，這將是我們最接近運行率的一年。考慮到我們今年的積極主動性，現在我們的 TUA 僅降至 15 TBtu，我們仍然高於 9 列火車運行率範圍的中點，而且我們甚至不再有雪佛龍的 TUA。這正是我們預期的。它已融入2020年願景和2026年200多億美元的現金流中。我們將觀察優化方面的情況如何，但這還沒有被納入今天的指導中。

Got it. Very helpful. So a lot of upside potential but not baked into the guide. Very clear there.

知道了。非常有幫助。因此，有很大的上升潛力，但尚未被納入指南中。非常清楚。

We'll go next to Brian Reynolds with UBS.

接下來我們請到瑞銀的布萊恩‧雷諾茲 (Brian Reynolds)。

Maybe to talk about just the distribution cut on the variable side. If you could just help talk about sizing and timing of that and ultimately, how it relates to translating into the 15 mtpa expansion, assuming like an [8.50] build. So it seems like there's still a little bit of a variable component in the guidance above that 3.1 kind of run rate. So just kind of curious how you came to that number? And how we should think about prefunding just given it could be $10 billion to $15 billion for the SPL expansion?

也許只是談論變數方面的分佈切割。如果您能幫忙談談這個計劃的規模和時間安排，以及最終它與 1500 萬噸/年的擴張有何關係，假設是 [8.50] 的建設。因此，看起來指導中仍然存在一些高於 3.1 運行率的可變成分。我只是有點好奇你是如何得出這個數字的？鑑於 SPL 擴張可能需要 100 億至 150 億美元，我們該如何考慮預先籌資？

Sure. So as we thought about the variable adjustment, I would say, over the last 2 years, we were incredibly efficient with our cash inside the CQP. And with the distributions, including the variable being over $4 both years, we probably distributed out almost $700 million more than even the run rate DCF per unit guidance that we give.

當然。因此，當我們考慮變數調整時，我想說，在過去的兩年裡，我們在 CQP 內部的現金使用效率非常高。加上分配，包括兩年內超過 4 美元的變量，我們可能分配的金額甚至比我們給出的每單位運行率 DCF 指導金額還多出近 7 億美元。

So now it's time as we're getting closer to officially filing with the FERC for the Sabine expansion and are targeting that 2026 FID that we're going to start retaining some of the cash and bringing down the variable, we're saving around, let's say, $700 million and a large portion of that will actually just go into paying down a bit of debt that's coming due, giving us this flexibility financially to add leverage capacity once we FID the project, stay with that, let's say, 50-50 debt to equity during construction and maintain the base distribution throughout while still being investment grade at Sabine and CQP.

現在我們越來越接近向聯邦能源管理委員會正式提交薩賓擴建項目申請，我們的目標是在2026年做出最終投資決定，屆時我們將開始保留部分現金並降低可變因素，我們將節省大約7億美元，其中很大一部分將用於償還即將到期的債務，使我們在財務上具有靈活性，一旦項目做出最終投資決定，就可以增加槓桿能力，在建立股本

So we're trying to thread a needle there. And to do that, we need to start planning now. Mind you, some of the cash that's retained is also going into development of supporting the feed and getting Sabine expansion ready for FID. And there's even $100 million or so baked in there for debottlenecking purposes. We think we've found some ways to get to the higher end of the 4.9 to 5.1 range on the first exchange that hopefully can pay dividends to us in the coming years.

因此，我們正在嘗試在那裡穿針引線。為了做到這一點，我們現在就需要開始規劃。請注意，保留的部分現金也將用於支持供稿的開發和為 Sabine 擴張做好 FID 的準備。其中甚至還預留了大約 1 億美元來解決瓶頸問題。我們認為，我們已經找到了一些方法，可以在第一次交易中達到 4.9 到 5.1 範圍的高端，希望這能在未來幾年為我們帶來回報。

So there's a few things in there, but it is mainly debt pay down in the near term to add leverage capacity and flexibility in the long term. Mind you, it's still $2 billion of distributions coming out of CQP this year with $1.2 billion of that going into -- going to CEI. But if we can pull all this off and build this project and get to that over to $5 DPU, we're talking about almost $2 billion of consolidated EBITDA, and we're talking about almost $1 billion of DCF to CEI. So it's a win-win for all parties.

因此，這其中有幾件事，但主要是短期內償還債務，以增加長期的槓桿能力和靈活性。請注意，今年 CQP 的分配額仍為 20 億美元，其中 12 億美元將流向 CEI。但是，如果我們能夠完成所有這些工作並完成這個項目，並將其提高到 5 美元的 DPU，那麼我們談論的將是近 20 億美元的合併 EBITDA，而我們談論的將是近 10 億美元的 CEI 的 DCF。因此，這對各方而言是雙贏的。

Right. Makes sense. Appreciate all that. My second question, just around maybe further optimization. I know for the SPL expansion, it seems like there's some capital efficiency and optimization opportunities with boil off gas and some other things. But as we think about the existing asset base, I think you talked about 45 mtpa kind of being a good run rate. It seems like '23 was above that.

正確的。有道理。感謝這一切。我的第二個問題是關於可能進一步優化。我知道對於 SPL 擴展來說，似乎在蒸發氣和其他方面存在一些資本效率和優化機會。但是當我們考慮現有的資產基礎時，我認為您所說的 45 mtpa 是良好的運行率。看起來 '23 高於這個數字。

As we look ahead of 2024, have we squeezed out all the optimization on the existing asset base? Or are there some new technologies or engines that could help kind of further drive efficiencies and optimization on the existing asset base going forward?

展望2024年，我們是否已經將現有資產基礎上的所有優化都擠出來了？或者是否存在一些新技術或引擎可以幫助進一步提高現有資產基礎的效率和優化？

Brian, this is Jack. And while we're not going to guide upwards of the 45 million tons today, I'm always amazed at what my operations folks can deliver. So whether it's optimizing the trains or our maintenance schedule, we -- they have just constantly outperformed. So we're looking now, as Zach mentioned, $100-or-so million dollars for debottlenecking. One of the things I find really promising is we're looking at a new technology of our fin fans.

布萊恩，這是傑克。儘管我們今天不會將產量控制在 4500 萬噸以上，但我總是對我的營運人員所能取得的成果感到驚訝。因此，無論是優化列車還是維護計劃，我們的表現都一直非常出色。因此，正如札克所提到的，我們現在正在尋求 1 億美元左右的資金來解決瓶頸問題。我發現真正有希望的事情之一是我們正在研究一種用於鰭片風扇的新技術。

Those are the fans that we use to cool the refrigerants that liquefy the natural gas. And we think there's a big opportunity there. So we'll be trying that out in earnest this year, and I hope to have more news for you on later calls.

這些是我們用來冷卻液化天然氣的冷媒的風扇。我們認為其中存在著很大的機會。因此，我們今年會認真嘗試這一點，我希望在以後的電話會議中能為大家帶來更多消息。

We'll go next to Theresa Chen with Barclays.

接下來我們參觀巴克萊銀行的 Theresa Chen。

Going back to Jack's comments on the evolving regulatory backdrop. With respect to the DOE pause, I'm just curious how this impacted conversations with customers, both within the context of commercializing your expansion projects, but also in relation to the broader commitment, that the U.S. government has to LNG exports and the perception of your global customers and the credibility and competitiveness of the U.S. LNG industry. Any salient commercial color you can provide would be great.

回顧傑克對不斷變化的監管背景的評論。關於能源部暫停這項決定，我只是好奇這對與客戶的對話有何影響，不僅在擴建項目商業化的背景下，而且在更廣泛的承諾方面，即美國政府對液化天然氣出口、全球客戶的看法以及美國液化天然氣行業的信譽和競爭力。如果您能提供任何顯著的商業色彩那就太好了。

Theresa, I think I'm going to just start with some overall comments, and then I'll turn it over to Anatol, but I have to say this isn't really new. We've been through multiple administrations here at Cheniere. We've been through multiple studies on the public interest in exporting America's natural gas.

特蕾莎，我想我將先發表一些總體評論，然後將其交給阿納托爾，但我不得不說這並不是什麼新鮮事。切尼爾電力局已經歷經多屆政府管理。我們對公眾對美國天然氣出口的利益進行了多項研究。

What is shocking and new is over the last 8 years, I think Cheniere has proven all the benefits to America and to our allies over exporting U.S. LNG. And I find it appalling that we need scientists to tell us theoretically using theories and hypotheses of the benefits or not. But as you know, we know that they are -- those benefits are factual. They're proven, they were witnessed by the world. So I really look forward to seeing this study's report.

令人震驚和新鮮的是，在過去的 8 年裡，我認為切尼爾油田已經證明了出口美國液化天然氣給美國及其盟友帶來的種種好處。我覺得很震驚，我們需要科學家從理論上用理論和假設來告訴我們這樣做是否有益。但正如你所知，我們知道這些好處是確實存在的。它們已經被證實，它們已被世界見證。所以我非常期待看到這項研究的報告。

I look forward to the comment period so we can get the record straight and accurate. I'm hopeful that cooler heads ultimately prevail. And that the facts will be evident and this pause will be a distant memory.

我期待評論期的到來，這樣我們才能獲得正確和準確的記錄。我希望最終能夠有更冷靜的頭腦。事實將會顯而易見，而這次停頓將成為遙遠的記憶。

But with that, I'll turn it over to Anatol, and he can tell you a little bit about what our conversations have been with our customers.

說到這裡，我會把話題交給阿納托爾，他可以告訴你一些我們與客戶的對話內容。

Yes. Thanks, Jack, and thanks, Theresa. Just to pick up where Jack left off. This is the third time that DOE is doing this study. And I would say, to Jack's point, the first 2 are a distant memory as the U.S. goes from kind of mid-90s of million tons per annum of capacity today to close to 200 million tons. We still think really believe that the U.S. will be the market's first 200 million-ton exporter, and we will navigate this with the DOE.

是的。謝謝，傑克，謝謝，特蕾莎。只是繼續傑克未完待續的部分。這是美國能源部第三次進行此項研究。我想說，正如傑克所說，前兩個時代已經成為遙遠的記憶，因為美國的年產能已從 95 億噸左右增加到目前的接近 2 億噸。我們仍然堅信美國將成為市場上第一個2億噸出口國，我們將與美國能源部一起實現這一目標。

A lot of the things that we have been doing for the last 4, 5 years on our LCA and on our environmental science and tracking the emissions profiles providing the cargo mission tags are all things that are new in the equation and then, of course, just the quantum of LNG exports from the U.S. and gas dedicated to LNG exports is a new component in this equation.

過去 4、5 年我們在 LCA 和環境科學方面所做的許多工作以及追蹤排放概況、提供貨物任務標籤的工作都是這個等式中的新內容，當然，美國液化天然氣出口量和專用於液化天然氣出口的天然氣也是這個等式中的一個新組成部分。

So we -- to Jack's point, we look forward to DOE's methodical kind of science-based review and updating its profile, but we are confident and we relay the same answer to our customers and our commercial engagements that we are confident that Cheniere will be able to navigate whatever comes out of the DOE and continue to prosecute expansions on our time line.

因此，正如傑克所說，我們期待美國能源部進行有條不紊的基於科學的審查並更新其概況，但我們有信心，並且我們向客戶和商業夥伴傳達了同樣的答案，我們相信 Cheniere 將能夠應對美國能源部出台的任何決定，並繼續按照我們的時間表進行擴建。

So this is not new. Every time there is a pivot, whether that is a modest pivot or a more major pivot, we have these discussions. But we've navigated them for a decade plus and are confident we'll continue to do so. And that's exactly the message that we give to our customers, and we obviously firmly believe that.

這並不是什麼新鮮事。每次發生轉變時，無論是溫和的轉變還是較大的轉變，我們都會進行這些討論。但我們已經駕馭它們十多年了，並且有信心繼續這樣做。這正是我們向客戶傳達的訊息，我們顯然堅信這一點。

And Anatol, going back to your comments related to the elasticity benefits in the market currently as price-sensitive buyers increase interest. Can you elaborate on that? And what do you think the magnitude of that demand can be if prices remain low?

阿納托爾，回到你關於當前市場彈性優勢的評論，因為對價格敏感的買家興趣增加了。能詳細說明一下嗎？如果價格維持在低位，您認為需求規模會有多大？

Yes. Look, the market -- it's hard to say that these are kind of unprecedented dynamics in the sense that the amount of infrastructure that has been brought online over the last 3 to 5 years is unprecedented over that period. So we talk about the amount of liquefaction capacity that's coming online in the back half of this decade. But again, not a month goes by that there's not a new regas terminal.

是的。看看市場——很難說這是一種前所未有的動態，因為過去 3 到 5 年間上線的基礎設施數量是前所未有的。因此，我們討論的是本世紀後半葉將投入使用的液化天然氣產能。但是，每個月都會有一個新的再氣化終端出現。

Europe added 5, Southeast Asia has added 4. Europe will now add Alexandroupolis in Greece in the coming days or weeks. So the ability to consume this volume enormous, and we are approaching a scale now relative to the current 400 million tons of exports, which obviously will grow of almost 1,300 million tons per annum of import capacity. So markets like India, which have rebounded strongly as prices moderate, are now in a position to import more than twice as much volume as it imported in '23.

歐洲新增 5 家，東南亞新增 4 家。歐洲將在未來幾天或幾週內新增希臘亞歷山德魯波利斯。因此，消費這種數量的能力是巨大的，相對於目前 4 億噸的出口量，我們現在已經接近這樣的規模，而進口能力顯然每年將增加近 13 億噸。因此，隨著價格緩和，印度等市場出現強勁反彈，目前的進口量是2023年的兩倍多。

That was not a position that India was in early 2020 when prices were low, and it was a price elastic consumer. So I think you'll see that price elastic demand function really surprised to the upside as Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, India, et cetera, are all in a position to take meaningful incremental volumes. So quite optimistic on that front.

這與 2020 年初印度的狀況不同，當時印度價格較低，是一個價格彈性消費國。因此我認為你會看到價格彈性需求函數確實令人驚訝地上行，因為菲律賓、泰國、越南、印度等都能夠獲得有意義的增量。因此在這方面相當樂觀。

And I think we all see these liquefaction numbers coming. And again, historically, they have surprised to the downside in terms of schedule and utilization. So we'll see how the world rebalances, but it certainly has the capacity to consume essentially whatever number you think will be added to the supply side.

我想我們都看到了這些液化數字的出現。而且，從歷史上看，他們在進度安排和利用率方面的表現總是讓人感到驚訝。因此，我們將看到世界如何重新平衡，但它肯定有能力消費你認為將增加到供應方的任何數量。

We'll go next to Spiro Dounis with Citi.

接下來我們將和花旗銀行一起前往 Spiro Dounis。

I wanted to go back to the 2020 vision, if we could, Zach. Just we're about 1.5 years into that program. And you mentioned tracking on or even ahead of plan to date. But I guess if we just shift the focus of the forward outlook and think about that outlook for '25 -- sorry, '24 through '26. How does that compare to what you envisioned back in 2022 as you sort of set that $20 billion target. I imagine some puts and takes since then Stage 3 may be coming on early. I'm not sure where you had the LNG curve then. Just trying to understand how much conservatism be imputed there?

如果可以的話，我想回到 2020 年的願景，扎克。我們已經執行該計劃約一年半了。您提到了迄今為止的跟踪甚至提前計劃。但我想，如果我們只是將焦點轉移到未來前景上，並思考 25 年——抱歉，是 24 年到 26 年的前景。當您設定 2022 年 200 億美元的目標時，這與您設想的相比如何？我想像從那時起的一些變動可能會提前到來。我不確定當時的液化天然氣曲線在哪裡。只是想了解那裡有多少保守主義？

Sure. So I would just say we're still at $20-plus billion of available cash through '26, and there are some puts and takes. We've made some more money in years like the past year. This year was always planned to be highly contracted. And then we assumed guaranteed completion dates for Stage 3 meaning not even -- Train 7 wasn't even going to come online until 2027 outside of that period of time.

當然。因此，我想說的是，到 26 年我們仍然有 200 多億美元的可用現金，而且還會有一些進出。像去年這樣的幾年我們賺了更多的錢。今年本來計劃是大規模承包的。然後我們假設了第 3 階段的保證完成日期，這意味著甚至——在該時間段之外，第 7 號列車甚至要到 2027 年才能上線。

So all in, we're still over $20 billion. We've deployed over $8 billion. So about 40% in about 30% of the time. But the main thing to focus on is really that excess cash and how we're going to deploy that going forward. And as you can tell with some of the debt paydown, which will be less than we even did this year, staying inside of CQP. CEI is going to mainly be focused on catching up on the buy back and completing the equity funding of Stage 3.

所以總的來說，我們仍然超過 200 億美元。我們已經部署了超過80億美元。因此，在約 30% 的時間內，可以達到約 40% 的效果。但我們真正關注的是剩餘現金以及我們今後如何部署這些現金。正如您所看到的，部分債務的償還金額甚至比我們今年的還少，而且還留在 CQP 內部。 CEI 將主要致力於追趕回購並完成第三階段的股權融資。

At this point, we've done over $2 billion of buybacks, but we've done over $3.5 billion of debt pay down. So there's still a $1.5 billion, give or take, that still needs to occur for that catch-up of the 1:1. So we'll be pretty focused on that this year. Case in point, the program was set up to be opportunistic at times like this, and that's why the shares outstanding is trickling down.

到目前為止，我們已經回購了超過 20 億美元，但我們已經償還了超過 35 億美元的債務。所以，為了達到 1:1 的目標，大約還需要 15 億美元。因此今年我們會非常關注這一點。舉個例子，該計劃就是在這種時候抓住機會而設立的，這就是為什麼流通股數量正在減少。

And by the end of the year or early next year, yes, we'll probably have to upsize the plan again and keep on marching on this long-term path to eventually 200 million shares in the long-term run rate.

到今年年底或明年年初，是的，我們可能必須再次擴大計劃，並繼續沿著這條長期道路前進，最終實現 2 億股的長期運行目標。

Got it. That's helpful, Zach. Second question, just given your, I think, the largest and one of the largest buyers of natural gas. Just curious how you're thinking about the supply over the next few years. I think right now, producers understandably retrenching just given where pricing is. At the same time, we're hearing from some midstream companies that there are pockets of shortages in the Mid-Atlantic, just due to the rise in data centers and other types of electric needs.

知道了。這很有幫助，扎克。第二個問題，我認為你們是天然氣的最大買家之一。只是好奇您對於未來幾年的供應有何看法。我認為，目前，考慮到價格狀況，生產商削減產能是可以理解的。同時，我們從一些中游公司聽說，由於資料中心和其他類型的電力需求增加，大西洋中部地區出現了電力短缺。

So curious as you think about that outlook when all the LNG capacity comes online in the next few years, do you think the producers are going to be able to stand up and sort of deliver on that supply?

所以，您好奇，當未來幾年所有液化天然氣產能都投入使用時，您認為生產商是否能夠保證供應？

Thanks, Spiro. This is Anatol. I'll jump in. Look, we're very comfortable with and confident in the resource and the economics of developing that resource in this nation. The challenge we have, which we've highlighted multiple times for years is building infrastructure, and I think it's going to be a long time before anybody attempts another Mountain Valley pipeline or equivalent out of what is an incredible resource in the Northeast, in the Marcellus and Utica.

謝謝，斯皮羅。這是阿納托爾。我插話說，你看，我們對這個國家的資源以及開發這種資源的經濟效益非常滿意，而且很有信心。我們面臨的挑戰是基礎設施建設，多年來我們已多次強調這一點，我認為，要有人嘗試在東北部馬塞勒斯和尤蒂卡的豐富資源中再建一條山谷輸油管道或同等管道還需要很長時間。

That said, you know us and we take very seriously and as sacrosanct, gas supply and the infrastructure needed to supply our facilities for decades to come. And that's one of many reasons why the U.S. Gulf Coast is our home, and we're very confident that Louisiana, Texas, Mid-Continent can continue to develop the resource and the infrastructure necessary to get it to us.

話雖如此，您了解我們，我們非常重視並視天然氣供應和未來幾十年為我們的設施供電所需的基礎設施為神聖不可侵犯的。這也是我們選擇美國墨西哥灣沿岸的原因之一，我們非常有信心路易斯安那州、德克薩斯州和中部大陸能夠繼續開發這裡的資源以及將其輸送給我們所需的基礎設施。

Jack mentioned the ADCC pipeline that's moving well. Obviously, Permian continues to grow, and we'll need more intrastate infrastructure. We will need more interstate infrastructure as you probably saw we filed for together with our SPL applications. So we're confident that the Gulf Coast will continue to be well supplied, but obviously would prefer that other resource in the country was able to get to market as well.

傑克提到 ADCC 管道進展順利。顯然，二疊紀盆地將繼續發展，我們需要更多的州內基礎設施。我們將需要更多的州際基礎設施，正如您可能看到的那樣，我們與 SPL 申請一起提交了這些基礎設施。因此，我們相信墨西哥灣沿岸將繼續獲得充足的供應，但顯然更希望該國的其他資源也能進入市場。

We'll go next to Tristan Richardson with Scotiabank.

接下來我們去拜訪豐業銀行的特里斯坦‧理查森 (Tristan Richardson)。

Just one for me this morning. Following up on a prior question about distribution levels at CQP. I mean I think the philosophy of a base plus variable is relatively new, going back to 2022. But is there a potential here that you could rethink that philosophy in -- with the focus on retaining more cash in anticipation of the proposed SPLX?

今早我只吃一個。繼續回答關於 CQP 分佈水準的先前問題。我的意思是，我認為基礎加變數的概念相對較新，可以追溯到 2022 年。但是，您是否可以重新考慮這種理念——重點是保留更多現金以迎接擬議的 SPLX？

I think what we planned in 2022 was planned for distributing out a lot of cash efficiently in '22 and '23 and then being in a position where we can do a mega project inside an MLP. So when we set the 310 distribution as the base, we intend to hold that. Obviously, this year, we're actually even above that. We had enough cash to be able to meet our objectives going into developing and preparing for the Sabine expansion.

我認為我們在 2022 年制定的計劃是在 2022 年和 2023 年有效分配大量現金，然後能夠在 MLP 內部開展大型專案。因此，當我們將 310 分佈設為基礎時，我們打算保留它。顯然，今年我們的目標甚至更高。我們有足夠的現金來實現開發和準備 Sabine 擴張的目標。

And so we're going to distribute that out to CEI and our unitholders. But when it comes down to FID in the project in the next couple of years, the goal is to maintain the base distribution, stay investment grade everywhere and fund the project within cash flow. So this all kind of works, which is pretty amazing for an MLP, but one with 6 trains fully up and running, it works quite well.

因此，我們將把它分發給 CEI 和我們的單位持有人。但當未來幾年專案的 FID 確定時，目標是維持基礎分佈，在各個方面保持投資級別，並在現金流範圍內為專案提供資金。所以這一切都可以進行，這對 MLP 來說相當了不起，但是對於 6 列火車完全啟動並運行的 MLP 來說，它運行得相當好。

And then as you think about the 310 base distribution or the 325 this year, yes, again, we're still talking about $2 billion of distributions and an over 6% yield. So we were cognizant of making sure that, that was competitive and kept us going in the right direction with our unit holders and our own stake in CQP.

然後，當您想到今年的 310 個基本分配或 325 個時，是的，我們仍然在談論 20 億美元的分配和超過 6% 的收益率。因此，我們意識到要確保這一點具有競爭力，並讓我們與我們的單位持有人和我們在 CQP 的股份一起朝著正確的方向前進。

I appreciate it, Zach. And then maybe just a follow-up on the '24 guide. I think you -- in the prepared comments, you highlighted a higher proportion of bridging volumes just one of sort of the upward items in the guide versus the 9 train run rate. Can you talk about how maybe mechanically bridging blames work and how that can kind of contribute more to that upside?

我很感激，札克。然後可能只是對‘24指南的後續。我認為您在準備好的評論中強調了更高比例的橋接量，這只是指南中相對於 9 趟列車運行率的上行項目之一。您能否談談如何以機械的方式彌補責任，以及如何為這項優勢做出更多貢獻？

Sure. Those bridging volumes are basically long-term contracts that helped us underpin our FID Stage 3 that have already begun before Stage 3 has begun. So those bridging volumes are in our 200 to 250 range and why we went into this year, 97%, 98% contracted. So when we think about the bridging volumes, though, in the context of having some near-term volumes on a 15- to 20-year deal.

當然。這些過橋資金基本上是長期合同，幫助我們支撐了 FID 第三階段，而第三階段在第 3 階段開始之前就已經開始。因此，這些過橋交易量在我們的 200 到 250 範圍內，這就是為什麼我們今年的合約量達到 97%、98%。因此，當我們考慮過橋交易量時，我們會考慮到 15 至 20 年期交易中的一些近期交易量。

If the curve is liquid, we will get value for the curve and blend it over the 20 years over the 15 years. So those margins are incrementally up to a deal that might start with a CP of a train up and running but we're only talking about nickels and dimes here.

如果曲線是流動的，我們將獲得曲線的價值，並在 20 年和 15 年內將其整合。因此，這些利潤會逐漸增加，直到達到從火車運行的 CP 開始的交易，但我們在這裡只討論小錢。

We'll take our final question from Ben Nolan with Stifel.

我們將回答 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan 提出的最後一個問題。

Well, for my first one, as we think about how the year plays out and appreciating that virtually everything is fixed, is there going to be any sort of cadence to how the EBITDA and the cash flow comes through? Or should it be pretty linear do you think?

嗯，對於我的第一個問題，當我們思考這一年將如何發展，並且意識到幾乎所有事情都是固定的，EBITDA 和現金流的流動是否會有一定的節奏？或者您認為它應該非常線性？

It's never perfectly linear. We produced more in the winter months at the site. So with that, you should expect slightly more EBITDA in the colder quarters versus the summer or the shoulder seasons. But basically, it should be a year of $5.5 billion to $6 billion of EBITDA and why we don't guide on a quarterly basis. But we expect 45 million tons and we are now 99% contracted and the optimization, we -- I'm not forecasting that today. So that's probably the only thing that could create some variability quarter-to-quarter.

它從來都不是完全線性的。我們在現場的冬季生產了更多的產品。因此，與夏季或平季相比，寒冷季節的 EBITDA 應該會略高一些。但基本上，今年的 EBITDA 應該是 55 億美元到 60 億美元，這也是我們不按季度預測的原因。但我們預計數量為 4500 萬噸，現在我們的合約簽訂率已達到 99%，至於優化，我們——我今天沒有預測到這個。所以這可能是唯一可能導致季度間出現差異的因素。

Okay. I appreciate that. And then for my follow-up, just on the regulatory side, obviously, this is the third time we've been going through this process. Curious if you guys think the hurdle is getting increasingly more challenging for new projects? Or is it -- do you think that all of this rhetoric is changing how Washington thinks about the business?

好的。我很感激。然後就我的後續問題而言，僅在監管方面，顯然這是我們第三次經歷這個過程。好奇你們是否認為新專案面臨的障礙越來越具有挑戰性？或者——您認為所有這些言論正在改變華盛頓對商業的看法？

No. Well, first, the hurdle has always been higher, right? This is a very capital-intensive business. It takes years to get one of these across the finish line. It's a balancing act between capital cost and SBAs and contracted amounts and financings and everything else. We make it look easy, Ben, but it's not. On the -- the only positive thing in the past was the regulatory certainty around America and contract sanctity.

不。首先，門檻一直比較高，對吧？這是一個資本密集程度極高的業務。要讓其中一件東西跨越終點線需要花費數年的時間。這是資本成本、SBA、合約金額、融資和其他一切之間的平衡行為。我們讓事情看起來很容易，本，但事實並非如此。過去唯一的正面因素是美國的監管確定性和合約神聖性。

And while I think this is politically motivated, I'm hopeful that at the end of the day, we go back to where we were before, which is we let the market dictate which projects will survive and which ones won't. And that's where we've always been, and the market has been extremely efficient at who they're going to bet on. And I would bet on Cheniere every single day.

雖然我認為這是出於政治動機，但我希望最終我們能夠回到以前的狀態，也就是讓市場決定哪些項目能夠生存，哪些項目不會生存。我們也一直處於這個狀態，市場對於押注對象非常有效率。我每天都會押注切尼爾。

Thank you all for all of your support.

謝謝大家的支持。

That will conclude today's call. We appreciate your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。