洛克希德·馬丁 (LMT) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day and welcome, everyone, to the Lockheed Martin Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded.

大家好，歡迎參加洛克希德馬丁公司 2022 年第三季度收益結果電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。

At this time, for opening remarks and introductions, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Greg Gardner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

在這個時候，關於開場白和介紹，我想把電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Greg Gardner 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, John, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone to our third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me today on the call are Jim Taiclet, our Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jay Malave, our Chief Financial Officer; and Maria Ricciardone Lee, our new Vice President of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，約翰，早上好。我想歡迎大家參加我們的 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Jim Taiclet；我們的首席財務官 Jay Malave；以及我們新任投資者關係副總裁 Maria Ricciardone Lee。

Statements made in today's call that are not historical facts are considered forward-looking statements that are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Please see today's press release and our SEC filings for a description of some of the factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議中做出的非歷史事實的陳述被視為根據聯邦證券法的安全港條款做出的前瞻性陳述。實際結果可能與前瞻性陳述中預測的結果大不相同。請參閱今天的新聞稿和我們的 SEC 文件，了解可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述中的結果大不相同的一些因素的描述。

We have posted charts on our website today that we plan to address during the call to supplement our comments. These charts also include information regarding non-GAAP measures that may be used in today's call. Please access our website at www.lockheedmartin.com and click on the Investor Relations link to view and follow the charts.

我們今天在我們的網站上發布了圖表，我們計劃在電話會議期間解決這些圖表以補充我們的評論。這些圖表還包括有關可能在今天的電話會議中使用的非公認會計原則措施的信息。請訪問我們的網站 www.lockheedmartin.com 並單擊投資者關係鏈接以查看和跟踪圖表。

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Jim.

有了這個，我想把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our third quarter 2022 earnings call as we review our quarterly results, our 2022 full year outlook and our preliminary expectations for 2023. But before we begin, I'd like to welcome Maria who I'm excited to tell you all started as our new Vice President of Investor Relations just yesterday.

謝謝，格雷格。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議，我們將回顧我們的季度業績、我們的 2022 年全年展望和我們對 2023 年的初步預期。但在我們開始之前，我想歡迎瑪麗亞，她我很高興地告訴大家，昨天剛開始擔任我們新的投資者關係副總裁。

I'd also like to thank Greg who announced his plan to retire at the end of the year for his more than 37 years of dedicated service at Lockheed Martin, including 5 terrific years as our Vice President of Investor Relations. It's been a pleasure to work with you, Greg, and we wish you all the best in retirement.

我還要感謝 Greg 宣布計劃在年底退休，感謝他在洛克希德馬丁公司超過 37 年的專注服務，其中包括 5 年作為我們的投資者關係副總裁的出色工作。很高興與您合作，格雷格，我們祝您退休後一切順利。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

I'd also like to note that we continue to await the U.S. Army's selection for its future long-range assault aircraft competition, FLRAA, as it is known. We'll modernize the Army's rotorcraft fleet and represent a long-term franchise growth opportunity. We are confident that the Defiant X is the transformational aircraft that the U.S. Army is going to need to accomplish its complex missions today and well into the future, and we look forward to the Army's announcement.

我還想指出，我們將繼續等待美國陸軍選擇其未來的遠程攻擊機競賽 FLRAA，眾所周知。我們將對陸軍的旋翼機機隊進行現代化改造，並代表一個長期的特許經營增長機會。我們相信 Defiant X 是美國陸軍在今天和未來完成複雜任務所需的轉型飛機，我們期待陸軍的宣布。

Lockheed Martin had a solid quarter financially with 3% increase in sales from last year's third quarter and strong operating margins and earnings per share. Our free cash flow was outstanding as we generated $2.7 billion in the quarter. And our backlog grew nearly $5 billion, closing at $140 billion. We remain on track to achieve the full year outlook for all of our financial metrics that we discussed last quarter.

洛克希德馬丁公司本季度財務狀況穩健，銷售額比去年第三季度增長 3%，營業利潤率和每股收益強勁。由於我們在本季度產生了 27 億美元，因此我們的自由現金流非常出色。我們的積壓訂單增加了近 50 億美元，最終達到 1400 億美元。我們仍有望實現我們上個季度討論的所有財務指標的全年展望。

In a few minutes, Jay will provide a detailed review of our quarterly results, updated 2022 guidance and trending information. But before he does that, I will provide a framework for our outlook and discuss our plans for delivering value to customers and shareholders over the next several years.

幾分鐘後，Jay 將詳細回顧我們的季度業績、更新的 2022 年指導和趨勢信息。但在他這樣做之前，我將為我們的前景提供一個框架，並討論我們在未來幾年為客戶和股東創造價值的計劃。

We continue to anticipate growth over the long term. But with residual pandemic impacts and supply chain challenges continuing, we now expect to return to growth in 2024 with 2023 sales being approximately equal to our 2022 outlook. We are confident in our 4 pillars to drive growth in 2024 and beyond. Importantly, we expect to deliver solid growth in free cash flow per share in 2023 and thereafter through a combination of cost reductions throughout the business, improved working capital management and an expanded share repurchase program.

我們繼續預計長期增長。但隨著剩餘的大流行影響和供應鏈挑戰繼續存在，我們現在預計將在 2024 年恢復增長，2023 年的銷售額大約等於我們對 2022 年的展望。我們對推動 2024 年及以後增長的四大支柱充滿信心。重要的是，我們預計在 2023 年以及此後通過降低整個業務的成本、改善營運資本管理和擴大股票回購計劃，實現每股自由現金流的穩健增長。

Our Board of Directors has approved an increase to our share repurchase authorization to $14 billion. You will see in Jay's charts that we're doubling our share repurchase plan outlook for this year, increasing our outlook by $4 billion for a total expectation of $8 billion in 2022. We also announced a 7% dividend increase this quarter. So altogether, we're on track to deliver approximately $11 billion to shareholders in 2022.

我們的董事會已批准將我們的股票回購授權增加到 140 億美元。您將在 Jay 的圖表中看到，我們將今年的股票回購計劃前景翻了一番，將我們的前景增加了 40 億美元，到 2022 年的總預期為 80 億美元。我們還宣布本季度股息增加 7%。總的來說，我們有望在 2022 年向股東交付約 110 億美元。

We are also elevating our commitment to drive long-term growth through strong, independent research and development and capital expenditure funding with an expected total of nearly $4 billion in 2023. These investments will support our customers and deliver on our 21st Century Security vision to accelerate leading-edge commercial digital technologies in defense of our nation and allies.

我們還承諾通過強大的獨立研發和資本支出資金來推動長期增長，預計到 2023 年將達到近 40 億美元。這些投資將支持我們的客戶並實現我們的 21 世紀安全願景，以加速用於保衛我們的國家和盟國的領先商業數字技術。

A key driver of this strategy is our new 1LM transformation, or as we call it, 1LMX, a multibillion-dollar, 7-year, company-wide program to transform our end-to-end business processes and systems. 1 will create a model-based enterprise with a fully integrated digital thread throughout the design, build and sustain product life cycle. And part -- as part of our ongoing corporate stewardship approach -- we are conducting an internal review to identify potential synergies between our 4 business areas, further cost-reduction opportunities and a general portfolio review with the goal of increasing operating efficiency in anticipation of our future growth. We are confident in long-term growth as domestic and international demand for a wide range of our products and services remain strong. We will continue to actively reinvest capital into our business to meet our customers' requirements and drive organic growth. And we will use our disciplined and dynamic capital allocation process and strong balance sheet to drive attractive total returns for shareholders.

這一戰略的一個關鍵驅動因素是我們新的 1LM 轉型，或者我們稱之為 1LMX，這是一項耗資數十億美元、為期 7 年的全公司計劃，旨在轉變我們的端到端業務流程和系統。 1 將創建一個基於模型的企業，在整個設計、構建和維持產品生命週期中具有完全集成的數字線程。作為我們正在進行的企業管理方法的一部分，我們正在進行內部審查，以確定我們的 4 個業務領域之間的潛在協同效應、進一步降低成本的機會和總體投資組合審查，以提高運營效率，以期預期我們未來的成長。我們對長期增長充滿信心，因為國內外對我們廣泛的產品和服務的需求依然強勁。我們將繼續積極將資本再投資於我們的業務，以滿足客戶的需求並推動有機增長。我們將利用我們嚴格和動態的資本分配流程和強大的資產負債表為股東帶來有吸引力的總回報。

Moving on, I'd like to highlight a few key accomplishments from each of our business areas, beginning with an update on our F-35 program. Last month, the Swiss government signed a letter of offer and acceptance for the procurement of 36 F-35As. This milestone completes the government to government procurement process that was first announced in June 2021 when the Swiss Federal Council shared its selection of the F-35 for its future fighter. The signing officially makes Switzerland the 15th F-35 customer. Also in August, we received contractual authorization from the Joint Program Office, enabling us to book a Lot 15 order of over $7.5 billion in recognized revenues and earnings from the second quarter as well as from the third quarter.

接下來，我想強調我們每個業務領域的一些關鍵成就，首先是我們 F-35 計劃的更新。上個月，瑞士政府簽署了採購 36 架 F-35A 的報價和接受函。這一里程碑完成了政府對政府的採購流程，該流程於 2021 年 6 月首次宣布，當時瑞士聯邦委員會分享了其為未來戰鬥機選擇的 F-35。此次簽約正式使瑞士成為第 15 個 F-35 客戶。同樣在 8 月，我們收到了聯合項目辦公室的合同授權，使我們能夠從第二季度和第三季度預訂超過 75 億美元的確認收入和收益的第 15 批訂單。

Our Space team celebrated the successful launch and deployment of the space-based infrared system GEO 6 satellite, the final spacecraft in the SIBRS constellation. SIBRS has been one of our longest running signature programs, providing the space force with an integrated system for missile warning, battle space awareness and intelligence gathering. We will also continue to support and advance this important mission through our next-generation overhead persistent infrared, or Next Gen OPIR program, which will deliver even more advanced and more survivable missile warning capabilities to the country.

我們的太空團隊慶祝天基紅外系統 GEO 6 衛星的成功發射和部署，這是 SIBRS 星座中的最後一艘航天器。 SIBRS 是我們運行時間最長的標誌性項目之一，為太空部隊提供導彈預警、戰場空間感知和情報收集的綜合系統。我們還將通過我們的下一代頭頂持續紅外或下一代 OPIR 計劃繼續支持和推進這一重要任務，該計劃將為該國提供更先進和更俱生存能力的導彈預警能力。

At Rotary and Mission Systems, the Sikorsky line of business secured an order for 12 SEAHAWK helicopters from the Australian Ministry of Defense. Over the past 40 years, we've delivered over 1,000 SEAHAWKs to the U.S. and international customers both with more than 50 remaining in backlog. And in missile and fire control, the State Department approved a potential sale to the United Arab Emirates for 2 THAAD systems, including 96 interceptors. The UAE currently operates 2 THAAD batteries, and this opportunity would significantly increase their air and missile defense capabilities. And once finalized, could be worth over $2.2 billion.

在 Rotary and Mission Systems，西科斯基業務線從澳大利亞國防部獲得了 12 架 SEAHAWK 直升機的訂單。在過去的 40 年中，我們已向美國和國際客戶交付了 1,000 多架 SEAHAWK，其中還有 50 多架未完成訂單。在導彈和火力控制方面，國務院批准向阿拉伯聯合酋長國出售 2 套 THAAD 系統，其中包括 96 個攔截器。阿聯酋目前擁有 2 個 THAAD 電池，這個機會將顯著提高他們的防空和導彈防禦能力。一旦敲定，價值可能超過 22 億美元。

Turning to budgets. Both chambers of Congress have advanced appropriation bills in support of fiscal year 2023 Department of Defense budgets. We have seen strong bipartisan support for increased defense funding and congressional authorization and appropriation committees. Final legislation approving these funds has yet to be passed, and the federal government is currently operating under a short-term continuing resolution for FY '23, limiting DoD funding to prior FY 2022 levels.

轉向預算。國會兩院都提出了支持 2023 財年國防部預算的撥款法案。我們已經看到兩黨強烈支持增加國防資金以及國會授權和撥款委員會。批准這些資金的最終立法尚未通過，聯邦政府目前正在根據 23 財年的短期持續解決方案運作，將國防部的資金限制在 2022 財年之前的水平。

As part of the continuing resolution, Congress did approve additional supplemental spending to support efforts in Ukraine for the defense of their country. The CR added $3 billion in funding for Ukraine security assistance initiatives, a program to provide equipment, weapons and military support to Ukraine, bringing the total amount appropriated for this effort to $9 billion.

作為持續決議的一部分，國會確實批准了額外的補充支出，以支持烏克蘭為保衛國家所做的努力。 CR 為烏克蘭安全援助計劃增加了 30 億美元的資金，該計劃旨在向烏克蘭提供設備、武器和軍事支持，使該計劃的撥款總額達到 90 億美元。

In addition, the continuing resolution appropriated $2 billion to replenish U.S. stocks of equipment sent to Ukraine and to increase production of critical munitions with the presidential drawdown authority funding now having been increased to over $14 billion since the beginning of the year.

此外，持續的決議撥款 20 億美元，以補充美國向烏克蘭發送的設備庫存，並增加關鍵彈藥的生產，自今年年初以來，總統縮編授權的資金現已增加到超過 140 億美元。

The international community has also increased their focus on global security with nations across the world having announced a planned 5-year increase in defense budget funding of approximately $60 billion in total. We continue to have discussions with customers to expand the manufacturing of multiple products and have submitted offers for consideration. While many of these contracting actions remain in the early stages and may take time to be fully implemented, we believe our signature programs and 21st Century Security technologies have us well positioned to address the challenges presented by a resurgence in global great power competition.

國際社會也增加了對全球安全的關注，世界各國已宣布計劃在五年內將國防預算資金總額增加約 600 億美元。我們繼續與客戶討論以擴大多種產品的製造，並已提交報價以供考慮。雖然其中許多簽約行動仍處於早期階段，可能需要時間才能完全實施，但我們相信我們的標誌性計劃和 21 世紀安全技術使我們能夠很好地應對全球大國競爭重新抬頭所帶來的挑戰。

Turning to our 21st Century Security strategy. I'd like to highlight 2 examples of Lockheed Martin's leadership in deterrence technologies and how our 5G.MIL open architecture can be used to enhance performance and drive effective Joint All Domain Operations. During the third quarter, Lockheed Martin and AT&T teamed to transfer UH-60M Black Hawk helicopter flight and performance data from an aircraft flying in Connecticut to receiving location in Colorado using both an AT&T 5G private cellular network and Lockheed Martin's 5G.MIL multisite pilot network. Operational performance has also improved with the efficiencies introduced by this technology shortening the total processing time of the task by nearly 85%.

轉向我們的 21 世紀安全戰略。我想強調洛克希德馬丁公司在威懾技術方面的領導地位的兩個例子，以及我們的 5G.MIL 開放架構如何用於提高性能並推動有效的聯合全域作戰。在第三季度，洛克希德馬丁公司和 AT&T 合作使用 AT&T 5G 專用蜂窩網絡和洛克希德馬丁公司的 5G.MIL 多站點試點網絡，將 UH-60M 黑鷹直升機的飛行和性能數據從一架在康涅狄格州飛行的飛機傳輸到科羅拉多州的接收地點.該技術引入的效率也提高了操作性能，將任務的總處理時間縮短了近 85%。

Also this quarter, Lockheed Martin and Verizon flew 5G-enabled drones to capture and securely transfer high-speed, real-time intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data from aircraft in flight to geolocate simulated adversarial positios. This demonstration showed the capabilities of our hybrid base station to bridge commercial and military technologies together, providing our service members with enhanced deterrent capabilities and further enabling the mission all the way out to the actual battlefield.

同樣在本季度，洛克希德馬丁公司和威瑞森公司駕駛支持 5G 的無人機從飛行中的飛機捕獲並安全傳輸高速、實時情報、監視和偵察數據，以定位模擬的敵對位置。該演示展示了我們的混合基站將商業和軍事技術連接在一起的能力，為我們的服務人員提供了增強的威懾能力，並進一步使任務一直延伸到實際戰場。

With that, I will turn the call over to Jay and join you later to answer your questions.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給傑，稍後再和你一起回答你的問題。

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. Today, I will walk you through our consolidated results, business area detail, provide an update to our 2022 outlook as well as offer some thoughts on 2023 and beyond. As I highlight our results, please follow along with the web charts we have posted with our earnings release today.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 謝謝，Jim，大家早上好。今天，我將向您介紹我們的綜合結果、業務領域的詳細信息，更新我們的 2022 年展望，並對 2023 年及以後提出一些想法。當我強調我們的結果時，請關注我們今天發布的收益發布中的網絡圖表。

Let's begin with Chart 3 and an overview of our consolidated third quarter financials. Lockheed Martin delivered solid results for the quarter. To start, we generated sequential sales growth of 7% to $16.6 billion as anticipated. Segment operating profit was $1.9 billion at an 11.2% margin with earnings per share of $6.71, reflecting solid underlying performance that absorbed $0.16 of mark-to-market headwinds. We also increased backlog with a 1.3 book-to-bill ratio, driven by the F-35 production Lot 15 contract action. Free cash flow was strong in the quarter at $2.7 billion, further enabling the execution of our disciplined and dynamic cash deployment strategy and returning over $2 billion through share repurchases and dividends.

讓我們從圖 3 和我們的第三季度合併財務概覽開始。洛克希德馬丁公司本季度取得了可觀的業績。首先，我們實現了 7% 的連續銷售額增長，達到預期的 166 億美元。分部營業利潤為 19 億美元，利潤率為 11.2%，每股收益為 6.71 美元，反映了穩健的基本業績，吸收了 0.16 美元的按市值計價的不利因素。在 F-35 生產 Lot 15 合同行動的推動下，我們還以 1.3 的訂單出貨比增加了積壓訂單。本季度的自由現金流強勁，達到 27 億美元，進一步推動了我們嚴格和動態的現金部署戰略的執行，並通過股票回購和股息回報超過 20 億美元。

Turning to consolidated sales and segment operating profit results on Chart 4. Total sales increased 3% from the third quarter of 2021 with growth in 3 of our 4 business areas. Segment operating profit was up slightly as the benefits from higher volume and equity earnings more than offset lower step-ups than last year.

轉向圖 4 上的綜合銷售和部門營業利潤結果。總銷售額較 2021 年第三季度增長 3%，我們的 4 個業務領域中有 3 個實現增長。分部營業利潤小幅上升，因為銷量和股權收益的增加抵消了低於去年的增幅。

Moving to earnings per share on Chart 5. On a reported basis, earnings per share were higher by $4.50. Adjusting for last year's pension transfer transaction and mark-to-market accounting, EPS grew 4%, primarily reflecting the benefits of higher operating profit and a lower share count. All in all, solid results that position us well to meet our full year commitments.

轉到圖 5 的每股收益。根據報告，每股收益高出 4.50 美元。調整去年的養老金轉移交易和按市值計價的會計處理後，每股收益增長了 4%，主要反映了營業利潤增加和股份數量減少的好處。總而言之，堅實的結果使我們能夠很好地履行我們的全年承諾。

Moving to cash flow on Chart 6. We delivered our strongest quarter of cash class flow year-to-date with strong collections driving $2.7 billion in free cash flow this quarter while maintaining accelerated payments of $1.1 billion to suppliers. Shareholder cash deployment continues to exceed free cash flow year-to-date with 121% of free cash flow deployed through dividends and share repurchases. We have substantially completed our $4 billion -- our original $4 billion 2022 buyback target. As we announced this quarter, we also increased our dividend 7%, now paying an annualized dividend of $12 per share.

轉到圖 6 上的現金流。我們實現了今年迄今為止最強勁的季度現金流，強勁的收款推動了本季度 27 億美元的自由現金流，同時保持向供應商加速支付 11 億美元。年初至今，股東現金部署繼續超過自由現金流，其中 121% 的自由現金流通過股息和股票回購進行部署。我們已經基本完成了我們的 40 億美元——我們最初的 2022 年 40 億美元的回購目標。正如我們本季度宣布的那樣，我們還將股息提高了 7%，現在支付的年化股息為每股 12 美元。

Moving to segment results and starting with Aeronautics on Chart 7. Third quarter sales increased 8% year-over-year, driven by higher F-35 production volume, including the recognition of $325 million of sales that were deferred from the second quarter associated with the Lot 15 contract action. Increased volume in our classified programs at Skunk Works also contributed to the growth. Operating profit increased 6%, primarily following the sales volume increases on F-35, partially offset by lower margins on classified programs.

轉向細分結果，從圖 7 中的航空開始。第三季度銷售額同比增長 8%，這是由於 F-35 產量增加，包括確認與第二季度相關的 3.25 億美元銷售額Lot 15 合約行動。 Skunk Works 分類項目的數量增加也促進了增長。營業利潤增長 6%，主要是由於 F-35 的銷量增加，但部分被分類項目的利潤率下降所抵消。

Moving to Missiles and Fire Control on Page 8. Sales increased 2%, driven primarily by increased volume on PAC-3 interceptors. Segment operating profit was down 8% as lower favorable profit adjustments this quarter more than offset the benefit from higher volume.

轉到第 8 頁的導彈和火控。銷售額增長 2%，主要是由於 PAC-3 攔截器的銷量增加。由於本季度較低的有利利潤調整抵消了銷量增加帶來的好處，因此分部營業利潤下降了 8%。

At Rotary and Mission Systems on Page 9, sales decreased year-over-year by 5%, driven primarily by lower Black Hawk production volume at Sikorsky. Operating profit decreased 10%, following Sikorsky production volume and lower favorable profit adjustments this quarter on the Black Hawk program.

在第 9 頁的 Rotary and Mission Systems，銷售額同比下降 5%，這主要是由於西科斯基的 Black Hawk 產量下降。由於西科斯基的產量和本季度對黑鷹計劃的有利利潤調整降低，營業利潤下降了 10%。

Turning to Chart 10 in our Space business area. Sales were up 7%, driven primarily by the continued ramp of the next-generation interceptor program. Operating profit increased 14% following the volume increase, along with higher equity earnings from United Launch Alliance.

轉到我們空間業務領域的圖 10。銷售額增長了 7%，主要是由於下一代攔截器計劃的持續增長。隨著銷量的增加，營業利潤增加了 14%，同時聯合發射聯盟的股權收益也增加了。

Okay. Moving to our updated outlook for 2022 on Page 11. We are maintaining our guidance from last quarter for sales, earnings per share and free cash flow. With the announcement this morning of a $14 billion repurchase authorization approved by our Board of Directors, we've increased our forecast for share buybacks to approximately $8 billion for the year, an increase of $4 billion from our prior expectation, reflecting our confidence in the long-term growth outlook and amplifying per share value creation.

好的。轉到第 11 頁我們更新的 2022 年展望。我們維持上一季度對銷售額、每股收益和自由現金流的指導。隨著今天上午宣布董事會批准了 140 億美元的回購授權，我們將今年的股票回購預測上調至約 80 億美元，比我們之前的預期增加了 40 億美元，反映出我們對長期增長前景和擴大每股價值創造。

We expect the EPS benefit from our incremental planned buybacks this year to be offset by the third quarter mark-to-market headwinds and therefore are holding our current EPS guide of $21.55 for the year. Also, while our consolidated outlook did not change, we did have some puts and takes between the business areas, and you can find that detail in our backlog charts.

我們預計今年增量計劃回購帶來的每股收益將被第三季度按市值計價的逆風所抵消，因此我們目前的年度每股收益指導為 21.55 美元。此外，雖然我們的綜合前景沒有改變，但我們確實在業務領域之間有一些看跌期權，您可以在我們的積壓圖表中找到這些細節。

On Chart 12, we've laid out our preliminary framework of expectations for 2023. As we've discussed before, we remain confident in sustained growth, driven by 4 pillars. Those are: programs of record, classified programs, hypersonics and new awards. This is supported by the higher backlog through the third quarter and further growth expected by year-end. We do anticipate flattish sales in 2023, however, primarily due to the delayed sales conversion in our programs of record backlog as the expected recovery from COVID and supply chain shortages will be more gradual than previously expected.

在圖 12 中，我們列出了對 2023 年的初步預期框架。正如我們之前討論過的，我們對在 4 個支柱的推動下持續增長充滿信心。它們是：記錄程序、機密程序、高超音速和新獎項。這得益於第三季度的較高積壓訂單和預計到年底的進一步增長。但是，我們確實預計 2023 年的銷售將持平，這主要是由於我們的創紀錄積壓計劃中的銷售轉換延遲，因為從 COVID 和供應鏈短缺的預期復蘇將比以前預期的更加緩慢。

In our classified businesses, we expect another year of growth in 2023. This growth, along with our contract mix headwinds, will be accompanied by pressure of approximately 20 to 30 basis points in overall company segment operating margin, all compared to our 2022 outlook. We are confident that through cost reduction and business area synergy actions, we can work to limit this downward pressure. Importantly, through management focus and aggressive working capital actions, our expectations for 2023 free cash flow remain unchanged in spite of the top line and margin pressure.

在我們的分類業務中，我們預計 2023 年將再有一年的增長。與我們的 2022 年展望相比，這種增長以及我們的合同組合逆風將伴隨著整個公司部門營業利潤率約 20 至 30 個基點的壓力。我們相信，通過降低成本和業務領域的協同行動，我們可以努力限制這種下行壓力。重要的是，通過管理重點和積極的營運資本行動，儘管頂線和利潤率壓力，我們對 2023 年自由現金流的預期保持不變。

Looking forward, we are confident in the company's prospects for growth and value creation. With our aggressive share buyback plan, we anticipate repurchasing approximately 10% of our shares outstanding over the next several years. And coupled with a sustained free cash flow, we expect to deliver outstanding long-term value to shareholders.

展望未來，我們對公司的增長和價值創造前景充滿信心。憑藉我們積極的股票回購計劃，我們預計未來幾年將回購約 10% 的流通股。再加上持續的自由現金流，我們希望為股東帶來卓越的長期價值。

Okay. So let's wrap up on Chart 13. Our business area operational and financial performance in the third quarter was solid, and we are increasing our outlook for cash return to shareholders. We continue to invest in innovative solutions, including commercial technologies in support of our customers' important missions and 21st Century Security. Our focus remains on strong cash generation, and combined with our robust balance sheet and discipline and dynamic capital deployment strategy allow us to deliver long-term value to shareholders.

好的。因此，讓我們結束圖 13。我們在第三季度的業務領域運營和財務表現穩健，我們正在提高對股東的現金回報前景。我們繼續投資於創新解決方案，包括支持客戶重要任務和 21 世紀安全的商業技術。我們的重點仍然是強勁的現金生成，並結合我們穩健的資產負債表和紀律以及動態的資本部署戰略，使我們能夠為股東創造長期價值。

Before we open up to Q&A, I would also like to thank Greg Gardner for his 37 years of dedicated service and contributions to the company. He's been an outstanding partner and resource to all that he has supported. We wish him well in the next phase of his life. Greg will remain with us through the end of the year to transition Maria Ricciardone Lee. Maria brings Investor Relations experience from multiple companies, including UTX where we both worked together. She's an excellent financial executive and thought partner, and I'm excited that she is joining the team.

在我們開始問答之前，我還要感謝 Greg Gardner 37 年來對公司的專注服務和貢獻。他一直是他所支持的所有人的傑出合作夥伴和資源。我們祝愿他在人生的下一個階段一切順利。 Greg 將在今年年底與我們在一起，以過渡 Maria Ricciardone Lee。 Maria 帶來了多家公司的投資者關係經驗，包括我們共同工作的 UTX。她是一位出色的財務主管和思想夥伴，我很高興她能加入這個團隊。

With that, John, let's open up the call for Q&A.

有了這個，約翰，讓我們打開問答的電話。

(Operator Instructions) And first, the line of Rob Stallard with Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）首先，Rob Stallard 與 Vertical Research 的產品線。

Also, I'd say all the best to Greg, and welcome, Maria. Good to talk to you again. But in terms of questions, Jay, on your outlook for 2023, I know you're not going to go into a lot of detail here, full guidance beginning next quarter. But you mentioned that classified is going to be going up but overall are going to be flattish. So what's coming down next year? And what's causing that?

另外，我要向 Greg 說最好的，歡迎，Maria。很高興再次與您交談。但就問題而言，傑伊，關於你對 2023 年的展望，我知道你不會在這裡詳細介紹，從下個季度開始提供全面指導。但你提到分類會上升，但總體上會持平。那麼明年會發生什麼？是什麼原因造成的？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Yes. We have some program transitions, Rob. And maybe I'll just maybe go through around some of the business areas to give you a little bit of color there. When you look at aero next year, we expect that to probably be in the range of being down -- flat to down slightly, and that's on the back really of lower production volume on the F-35. We expect that to be done -- even though sales or the deliveries will be generally flat, we recorded sales in advance of that with long lead procurement in 2021 and 2022. So it will be a period of catch-up on sales for aero there. So that's going to be the biggest driver there, but we'll expect that to abate when we go into 2024.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 是的。 Rob，我們有一些程序轉換。也許我可能會繞過一些商業領域，給你一點色彩。當你看明年的航空時，我們預計它可能會在下降的範圍內——持平到略微下降，這實際上是因為 F-35 的產量較低。我們預計會做到這一點——儘管銷售或交付量將基本持平，但我們在 2021 年和 2022 年通過長期領先採購提前記錄了銷售量。因此，這將是航空銷售追趕的時期.所以這將是最大的驅動力，但我們預計到 2024 年這種情況會減弱。

At MFC, we've got some -- just some timing, some program timing, particularly in our sensors business, we expect them to be probably flattish to down slightly as well. And then we expect some growth -- low single-digit growth in both RMS and Space. And RMS will just be driven by new programs. And at Space, we have -- our national security business is down, but we've got other programs that are spiking up there. And so that's generally what's driving it, I'd say, by business area and by segment. So slightly down in a few and slightly up in others, and on balance will be flat.

在 MFC，我們有一些 - 只是一些時間，一些程序時間，特別是在我們的傳感器業務中，我們預計它們可能會持平或略有下降。然後我們預計會有一些增長——RMS 和 Space 的低個位數增長。 RMS 將僅由新程序驅動。在太空，我們的國家安全業務正在下滑，但我們還有其他項目正在飆升。所以這通常是推動它的原因，我想說，按業務領域和細分市場。因此，在一些地方略微下降，在其他地方略微上升，總的來說會是平的。

And our next question is from Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Jim, can you walk through why you think growth is going to start again in 2024? I mean, what underlies that? And maybe one of the things I scratched my head on a bunch is you've got, what, the 15th customer for F-35, and it looks like there might even be some more within the next year or so. So how do we think about that growth recovery? What's going to underlie that? And why are F-35 levels at a higher rate of production than where they are today? And could they go higher?

吉姆，你能解釋一下為什麼你認為增長將在 2024 年重新開始嗎？我的意思是，這背後的原因是什麼？也許我在一堆東西上摸不著頭腦的是，你有，什麼，F-35 的第 15 個客戶，看起來在接下來的一年左右甚至可能會有更多客戶。那麼我們如何看待這種增長復甦呢？這會是什麼基礎？為什麼 F-35 的生產速度比現在高？他們能走得更高嗎？

Sure, Ron. It's Jim here. So the 2 biggest pieces of our 4 pillars of growth are programs of record, and I'll speak to a few of those in a second; and the classified business we have. And both of those are going to ramp up from 2023 to 2024, meaningly, we feel. And the biggest piece of all -- again, the programs of record are going to come into 3 or 4 very identifiable areas. One is the F-35 sustainment, right? So with more aircraft out flying, there's going to be more of a overhaul, repair, spare parts support, those kinds of activities, going on. And that's going to continue over a number of years. So F-35 sustainment is a growth area.

當然，羅恩。是吉姆在這裡。因此，我們的 4 個增長支柱中最大的 2 個是記錄計劃，我將在稍後與其中的幾個進行交談；以及我們擁有的機密業務。我們認為，從 2023 年到 2024 年，這兩者都會增加。最重要的是——再一次，記錄的程序將進入 3 或 4 個非常可識別的區域。一個是 F-35 的保障，對吧？因此，隨著更多的飛機起飛，將會有更多的大修、維修、備件支持等活動繼續進行。這將持續數年。因此，F-35 的維持是一個增長領域。

In MFC, the PAC-3 is resurging. There's interest in various parts of the world, the Middle East, Europe and Asia now, for PAC-3. So the capabilities of that air defense system are really going to be kicking into gear for the company in the next couple of years, including in 2024.

在 MFC 中，PAC-3 正在復蘇。現在，世界各地，中東，歐洲和亞洲都對 PAC-3 感興趣。因此，該防空系統的能力將在未來幾年（包括 2024 年）為該公司真正發揮作用。

Along with that, similarly, the CH-53K is going to move up the production rate significantly, and there's some additional international interest there. That aircraft can do lift capability that far exceeds any other that's ever been built in history. And it's, I think, going to get even more uptake as time goes on.

與此同時，類似地，CH-53K 將顯著提高生產率，並且那裡還有一些額外的國際興趣。這架飛機的升力能力遠遠超過歷史上任何其他飛機。我認為，隨著時間的推移，它會被更多人接受。

And the fourth among many of the programs of record that will grow is fleet ballistic missile that the U.S. Navy is essentially going to revamp for the second time the Trident fleet ballistic missile system. And that's a Lockheed Martin franchise that will continue to grow, again, starting in 2024.

在許多將增長的記錄項目中，第四個是艦隊彈道導彈，美國海軍實質上將第二次改造三叉戟艦隊彈道導彈系統。這就是洛克希德馬丁的特許經營權，從 2024 年開始，它還將繼續增長。

On the classified side, 2023 is helpful, but not really the ramp that will come in 2024. So between programs of record and classified, you're going to get the bulk of that growth. On F-35, the U.S. government has got to kind of determine what its budget priorities are at the macro level going forward. One of those has been nuclear deterrents. And so between the bomber program, the ground-based missile recapitalization and the fleet ballistic missile that I just mentioned, there's going to be a significant amount of defense budget proportionately spent on the nuclear revitalization.

在機密方面，2023 年是有幫助的，但實際上並不是 2024 年的斜坡。因此，在記錄節目和機密節目之間，你將獲得大部分增長。在 F-35 上，美國政府必須在宏觀層面確定其預算優先事項。其中之一是核威懾。因此，在我剛才提到的轟炸機計劃、陸基導彈資本重組和艦隊彈道導彈之間，將有大量國防預算按比例用於核振興。

But also the conventional threats have gotten worse instead of better as we look forward into the next 2 or 3, 4 years, and that's going to be a budget issue for the U.S. government. We've recommended, and I think the services would support, a steady production rate of 156 aircraft starting again in the 2024 time frame when we can get back up to that based on the COVID recovery for our supply chain, and I think that's supportable. And it takes about 80 U.S. aircraft to make that happen per year with another 75 or so coming from international.

但隨著我們展望未來 2 年或 3 年、4 年，傳統威脅變得更糟而不是更好，這將成為美國政府的預算問題。我們建議並且我認為這些服務將支持在 2024 年的時間框架內重新開始穩定生產 156 架飛機，屆時我們可以根據供應鏈的 COVID 恢復恢復到這一水平，我認為這是可以支持的.每年大約需要 80 架美國飛機才能實現這一目標，另外還有 75 架左右來自國際。

We see the international demand, and it's going to be up to the U.S. government to try to support that 80 number between the congressional committee processes for authorization and appropriation along with the President's budgets going forward. So we hope for that. We expect it because that's the need, and that's where we think the F-35 program is going to go. But again, in FY '23, we won't have that full ramp up yet.

我們看到了國際需求，美國政府將努力支持國會委員會授權和撥款程序之間的 80 個數字以及總統未來的預算。所以我們希望如此。我們期待它，因為這就是需要，這也是我們認為 F-35 計劃將走向的地方。但同樣，在 23 財年，我們還不會全面提升。

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Let me just maybe add a little bit to it as well, Ron. Just to augment, some of the things that we're seeing in 2023, we've got some expected abating headwinds when we go into 2024. Jim mentioned a little bit on supply chain. That's primarily affected our programs of record. And so those should lift by the time we get to 2024.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 讓我再補充一點，Ron。只是為了增強，我們在 2023 年看到的一些事情，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們預計會有一些減弱的逆風。吉姆提到了供應鏈的一點點。這主要影響了我們的記錄程序。因此，到 2024 年，這些應該會上升。

We also have a few program transitions in 2023 that will also allow for easier comparison when we get into 2024. And so for example, I just mentioned the F-35 where production will be down next year. Those will normalize when we get into 2024, which will allow our sustainment to grow, as Jim mentioned. We'll also see accelerated growth in the F-16 program. As you may recall, that program slipped to the right. But in 2024, we expect that to accelerate.

我們在 2023 年也有一些計劃過渡，這也將使我們在進入 2024 年時更容易進行比較。例如，我剛剛提到了明年產量將下降的 F-35。正如吉姆所提到的，當我們進入 2024 年時，這些將正常化，這將使我們的可持續性增長。我們還將看到 F-16 計劃的加速增長。您可能還記得，該程序向右滑動。但在 2024 年，我們預計這種情況會加速。

In Space, as Jim mentioned, FBM, there are other programs such as NGI that will continue to grow. And so we've got some things where we're cycling down this -- on 2023 on the SIBRS program and even things like Next Gen GEO or OPIR, again, those headwinds will abate as we get into 2024. Similarly, on MFC, Jim mentioned the PAC-3 program. We'll see also continued growth there in the classified programs as well. And then at RMS, as Jim mentioned, also at CH-53K, there's also other radar programs as well as Joint All Domain-type programs like Defense of Guam that will drive some growth in those years.

正如 Jim 提到的，在太空中，FBM 以及 NGI 等其他程序將繼續增長。因此，我們有一些事情正在循環下去——在 2023 年的 SIBRS 計劃，甚至像 Next Gen GEO 或 OPIR 這樣的事情，再次，隨著我們進入 2024 年，這些不利因素將減弱。同樣，在 MFC 上， Jim 提到了 PAC-3 計劃。我們還將看到分類項目的持續增長。然後在 RMS，正如 Jim 所提到的，在 CH-53K 上，還有其他雷達計劃以及聯合全域類型計劃，例如關島防禦計劃，這些計劃將在那些年推動一些增長。

So all of these areas and these programs are the ones that we have pretty clear visibility to. They do assume obviously that there is abatement to an improvement in supply chain. That's 15 months from now for improvement that we expect to occur.

所以所有這些領域和這些項目都是我們非常清楚可見的。他們顯然假設供應鏈的改善有所減弱。從現在起 15 個月後，我們預計會出現改進。

Our next question is from Matt Akers with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Matt Akers。

Greg, best of luck and good working with you. I wanted to ask about Future Vertical Lift, FLRAA, just what you're hearing from your customers there on the delays. And any indication of what's driving that and when do you think that contract might be up?

格雷格，祝你好運，與你合作愉快。我想問一下Future Vertical Lift，FLRAA，你從那裡的客戶那裡聽到的關於延誤的消息。以及任何跡象表明是什麼推動了這一點，您認為該合同何時到期？

Matt, it's Jim. The only thing we could say about the schedule for FLRAA decision is what the U.S. government puts out publicly. So we don't have anything else to add to that. It's their schedule and timeline, and we think we've put in a terrific offer. And also having been around some of these helicopter pilots in my Air Force time, they actually scared the heck out of me a couple of times when I flew with them.

馬特，是吉姆。關於 FLRAA 決定的時間表，我們唯一能說的是美國政府公開發布的內容。因此，我們沒有其他要添加的內容。這是他們的日程安排和時間表，我們認為我們已經提出了一個了不起的提議。在我的空軍時間裡，我也和這些直升機飛行員在一起過，當我和他們一起飛行時，他們實際上把我嚇壞了好幾次。

They want to be low. They want to be maneuverable below the tree line. And I've seen the FARA and FLRAA fly. They can do it. There's a video you can look at on YouTube that shows you how amazing this helicopter technology is. And it also gets you up to like a 230- to 250-knot forward speed when you need it. So it gives the best of both worlds if you're in the rotorcraft business as a flyer. You get good forward speed that's faster than it's ever been for traditionally designed helicopter because of our kind of rotating rotors. And it also gives you the maneuverability even better than many of the traditional helicopters could have provided. So we think it's the best solution for the actual frontline Army or other service pilot, and it's going to be up the U.S. government to see where they come out on that. But the schedule is theirs, and we can't really comment on it.

他們想要低調。他們希望在樹線以下機動。我見過 FARA 和 FLRAA 飛行。他們可以做到。您可以在 YouTube 上觀看一段視頻，向您展示這種直升機技術的神奇之處。它還可以讓您在需要時獲得 230 至 250 節的前進速度。因此，如果您以飛行員的身份從事旋翼飛機業務，那麼它可以兩全其美。由於我們的旋轉旋翼，您可以獲得比傳統設計的直升機更快的前進速度。它還為您提供比許多傳統直升機所能提供的更好的機動性。因此，我們認為這是實際前線陸軍或其他服務飛行員的最佳解決方案，這將取決於美國政府，看看他們在這方面的表現如何。但時間表是他們的，我們無法對此發表評論。

Next, we'll go to Pete Skibitski with Alembic Global Advisors.

接下來，我們將與 Alembic 全球顧問一起前往 Pete Skibitski。

Greg, enjoy your retirement. Jim, I had a question on Missiles and Fire Control. I feel like the last few years, you've had -- production programs have been down, but you mentioned this resurgence in the PAC-3. And U.S.A., it seemed like the guys were pretty positive on a range of production programs, HIMARS, for instance, being one of them because of what we've seen in the papers.

格雷格，享受你的退休生活。吉姆，我有一個關於導彈和火控的問題。我覺得在過去的幾年裡，你已經 - 生產計劃已經下降，但你提到了 PAC-3 中的這種複蘇。而在美國，這些人似乎對一系列生產計劃非常積極，例如 HIMARS，因為我們在報紙上看到的內容，他們就是其中之一。

But if we think about the midterm at Missiles and Fire Control with this kind of resurgence in the production programs, is there a margin opportunity there now that you guys are seeing, whereas maybe the production programs kind of start to shift back versus some of the hypersonic development projects?

但是，如果我們考慮導彈和火控的中期生產計劃的這種複蘇，那麼你們現在看到的那裡有利潤機會嗎，而生產計劃可能會開始轉向，而不是一些高超音速發展項目？

So Pete, I'd say, yes, the legacy, but still extremely effective MFC programs, are fairly high margin because of the volume and the learning curve that were already down. So that will be a margin upside to us should those volumes increase further. And we've gotten ahead of this. So for HIMARS, GMLRS, Javelin, again, the products you kind of see in the news these days and a few others as well.

所以Pete，我會說，是的，遺留但仍然非常有效的MFC程序，由於數量和學習曲線已經下降，利潤率相當高。因此，如果這些數量進一步增加，這對我們來說將是一個利潤空間。我們已經走在了前面。因此，對於 HIMARS、GMLRS、Javelin 來說，這些天你在新聞中看到的產品以及其他一些產品也是如此。

About 6, 7 months ago when we saw what was beginning to happen in Eastern Europe, I went over to visit some of the senior officials in the Pentagon and basically took them to letter and said, "We're going to start spending on capacity for a few of these systems, including the ones you just asked about." And now, we've got a lot done already.

大約 6 、 7 個月前，當我們看到東歐開始發生的事情時，我去拜訪了五角大樓的一些高級官員，基本上是帶他們去信說，“我們要開始在產能上支出對於其中一些系統，包括您剛剛詢問的系統。”現在，我們已經完成了很多工作。

So for example, on HIMARS specifically, we've already met with our long lead supply chain to plan for increasing production in 96 of these units a year. We advance funded ahead of contract $65 million to shorten the manufacturing lead time. That was without a contract or any other even memo or whatnot back from the government. We just went ahead and did that because we expected it to happen. So those parts are already being manufactured now.

例如，特別是在 HIMARS 上，我們已經與我們長期的領先供應鏈會面，計劃每年增加 96 個這樣的單位的產量。我們提前為合同提供了 6500 萬美元的資金，以縮短製造提前期。那是沒有合同或任何其他甚至備忘錄或政府不回的東西。我們只是繼續這樣做，因為我們預計它會發生。所以這些零件現在已經在製造了。

The third thing we did was we've determined where we could open up another modern manufacturing facility to be able to produce the products and got it ready early, and we're cross-training our skilled workforce across a bunch of product lines so as the demand grows and shifts across some of these products over the next few years, we're going to have people that can kind of fungibly move between them.

我們做的第三件事是，我們已經確定在哪裡可以開設另一個現代化製造工廠，以便能夠生產產品並儘早做好準備，我們正在對一系列產品線的熟練員工進行交叉培訓，以便在接下來的幾年裡，其中一些產品的需求會增長並發生變化，我們將讓人們可以在它們之間進行類似的移動。

And then the last thing we did was, going back to this 1LMX, we're putting the best and newest manufacturing technology into some of these product lines first so that when the ramp comes, we can pivot to it quicker.

然後我們做的最後一件事是，回到這個 1LMX，我們首先將最好和最新的製造技術投入到其中一些產品線中，這樣當斜坡來臨時，我們可以更快地轉向它。

So those are some of the things that we've done to actually capture some of the volume we expect to get, and we do expect to get it both from the U.S. to refill stocks, as I mentioned earlier in the prepared remarks, and also significant interest being shown. Now it's got to go ahead and get contracted, which as we discussed last call, it can take a couple of years to get all that done, especially for an FMS contract. But we know it's -- the demand is there, and we've spoken to the senior government officials from those countries that know that this is important for them.

因此，這些是我們為實際捕獲我們期望獲得的一些數量所做的一些事情，並且我們確實希望從美國獲得它來補充庫存，正如我之前在準備好的評論中提到的那樣，還有表現出極大的興趣。現在必須繼續簽訂合同，正如我們上次電話會議所討論的那樣，完成所有工作可能需要幾年時間，特別是對於 FMS 合同。但我們知道，需求就在那裡，我們已經與那些知道這對他們很重要的國家的高級政府官員進行了交談。

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Pete, just to follow up on that. We do expect some sales upside there on some of these programs that Jim mentioned. That is likely to be in -- probably starting in the 2024 time frame given the long cycle nature of where we are in spite of the fact that we've done some advanced funding.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^皮特，只是為了跟進。我們確實預計吉姆提到的其中一些計劃會有一些銷售增長。儘管我們已經完成了一些高級融資，但鑑於我們所處的周期很長，這很可能會在 2024 年的時間框架內開始。

The other thing I just have to also mention is that where we see the margin pressure next year, a lot of that is driven at MFC. And so while we will see a mix benefit associated from these higher-margin programs, that is probably more in 2024 and beyond. 2023, we'll see a step down from where they are this year in 2022. And the way to think about it is, in the third quarter, MFC did about 13.5. What's implied in our guide for the fourth quarter is high 13s. They're going to be in that mid-13 range, in that ballpark, for 2023 given some of these new increases in the programs that we've invested in.

我還必須提到的另一件事是，我們看到明年的利潤率壓力，其中很大一部分是由 MFC 推動的。因此，雖然我們將看到這些高利潤計劃帶來的混合收益，但在 2024 年及以後可能會更多。 2023 年，我們將在 2022 年看到今年的水平有所下降。考慮到這一點，MFC 在第三季度的表現約為 13.5。我們在第四季度的指南中暗示的是高 13 分。鑑於我們投資的項目中的一些新增長，它們將在 2023 年的 13 年中期範圍內，在那個範圍內。

And so we'll see a little bit of pressure there across the company really driven by MFC. But again, we'll see some of those mix benefits come back to us in '24 and beyond.

因此，我們將看到整個公司受到 MFC 真正推動的一點壓力。但同樣，我們將看到其中一些混合收益在 24 年及以後重新回到我們身邊。

Next, we'll go to Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將與 Jefferies 一起前往 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Best of luck, Greg. Jay, one for you maybe. I want to ask about the share repurchase authorization increase and the dividend raise. Can you talk about how you're thinking about deployment as a percentage of free cash flow going forward? And what were some of the assumptions made around the R&D tax credit perhaps in the expected use of debt? And just maybe adjacent to that, as you think about market multiples coming down and some of these smaller companies needing to potentially prime -- pair up with prime, how do you think about taking advantage of that opportunity along with the share repurchase authorization?

祝你好運，格雷格。傑，也許是給你的。我想問一下股票回購授權增加和股息增加。您能否談談您如何看待部署佔未來自由現金流的百分比？在預期的債務使用中，圍繞研發稅收抵免做出的一些假設是什麼？可能與此相鄰，當您考慮到市場倍數下降以及其中一些小公司需要潛在的投資時 - 與 Prime 配對，您如何看待利用該機會以及股票回購授權？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Okay. There's a lot there. So let me maybe start with the share repurchase. As I mentioned -- both Jim and I mentioned in our prepared remarks, we're confident in the long-term outlook of the company. We saw this as an opportunity to really amplify the value creation that we see over the long term. And we saw no better time than really now to get started on that here in the fourth quarter.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 好的。那裡有很多。所以讓我從股票回購開始吧。正如我所提到的——吉姆和我在準備好的講話中都提到，我們對公司的長期前景充滿信心。我們認為這是一個真正放大我們長期看到的價值創造的機會。我們看到沒有比現在更好的時間在第四季度在這裡開始了。

The profile to think about going forward is $4 billion here in the fourth quarter, $4 billion in 2023, $4 billion in 2024 and maybe $2 billion in 2025 as a starting point. And so that's the profile we should expect it to be.

未來要考慮的情況是，第四季度為 40 億美元，2023 年為 40 億美元，2024 年為 40 億美元，2025 年可能為 20 億美元作為起點。這就是我們應該期望的配置文件。

As far as debt, we do -- are going to finance this fourth quarter share repurchase program with the issuance of debt. So it will be about $4 billion. That will increase our interest expense next year. But again, it's all accretive. And so we'll see that. Again, our debt leverage ratio on an EBITDA basis will put us still below -- at or below 1.5x. So it's still very supportable and also very attractive.

就債務而言，我們將通過發行債務為第四季度的股票回購計劃提供資金。因此，這將是大約 40 億美元。這將增加我們明年的利息支出。但同樣，這一切都是增值的。所以我們會看到的。同樣，我們基於 EBITDA 的債務槓桿率仍將低於 - 或低於 1.5 倍。所以它仍然很受支持，也很有吸引力。

As far as the R&D tax capitalization, really nothing's changed at the moment. We'll see what happens as we move forward here in the fourth quarter. First things first, we got to get through the November elections. And then we have the expiration of the existing continuing resolution on December 16. It's possible through legislation, therefore, a new budget that we could see movement on tax extenders that would include some type of either deferral, or what we would prefer, a repeal of the task capitalization policy.

就研發稅收資本化而言，目前確實沒有任何變化。我們將看看在第四季度向前推進時會發生什麼。首先，我們必須通過 11 月的選舉。然後，現有的持續決議將於 12 月 16 日到期。因此，有可能通過立法，我們可以看到一項新的預算，其中包括某種類型的延期或我們希望廢除的稅收擴展任務資本化政策。

And as you know, we believe that it's sound policy, and we believe there's bipartisan support to remove any disincentives that promote innovation. And so that's a firm policy. It's something that we're firmly behind and we'll continue to push for.

如您所知，我們相信這是一個合理的政策，我們相信兩黨都支持消除任何促進創新的阻礙因素。所以這是一個堅定的政策。這是我們堅定支持的事情，我們將繼續推動。

Sheila, when it comes to small and midsized companies teaming up with Lockheed Martin, we're set up for that. I can describe 3 ways in which we are ready now to pair up and team up with whether they're commercial or defense, industrial-based companies of smaller scale.

希拉，當談到與洛克希德馬丁公司合作的中小型公司時，我們已經為此做好了準備。我可以描述 3 種方式，我們現在準備好與它們結對並與之合作，無論它們是商業還是國防、規模較小的工業公司。

One is that we've had for years, LM Ventures, like literally a VC house inside of Lockheed Martin. It's been funded at $200 million level originally. The investments that have been made under that authorization are now worth about $400 million. So even if we mark to market a little bit lower, we had basically 100% return on that initial investment.

一個是我們多年來一直擁有的LM Ventures，就像洛克希德馬丁公司內部的一個風險投資公司。它最初的資金水平為 2 億美元。根據該授權進行的投資現在價值約 4 億美元。因此，即使我們的市場價格稍微低一點，我們的初始投資基本上也能獲得 100% 的回報。

Seeing the success when I joined the company of the LM Ventures program a couple of years ago, we went ahead doubled the authorization. So we're looking where to invest another $200 million in early-stage companies.

幾年前我加入 LM Ventures 計劃的公司時看到了成功，我們繼續將授權翻了一番。因此，我們正在尋找在早期公司中再投資 2 億美元的地方。

At the next level, I motivated the team and Jay helped us create what we can now call Lockheed Martin Evolve or LM Evolve, E-V-O-L-V-E. And what that's meant to do is to go at a step higher and say, "How do we do joint ventures or commercial alliances with midsized companies, co-invest, et cetera, whether again, there on the commercial side or the defense industrial base side or space industry in ways that we can take that outside of our rate structure and manage it and fund it in a different, more creative way?"

在下一個級別，我激勵了團隊，Jay 幫助我們創造了我們現在可以稱之為 Lockheed Martin Evolve 或 LM Evolve，E-V-O-L-V-E 的東西。這意味著要走得更高，說：“我們如何與中型公司建立合資企業或商業聯盟，共同投資等等，無論是商業方面還是國防工業基礎以一種不同的、更有創意的方式，我們可以將其從我們的費率結構中拿出來管理和資助它？”

So we're in the VC space with LM Ventures. We're in the midsized page -- space with LM Evolve, which is just literally getting off the ground, I'll say. But we have the framework, the structure and the ability to engage in that level of investment now.

所以我們在 LM Ventures 的風險投資領域。我們處於中等規模的頁面——LM Evolve 的空間，我會說，它剛剛起步。但我們現在擁有參與該級別投資的框架、結構和能力。

And then thirdly, something we've done over the years is acquire small and medium companies with technologies with critical supply chain components that are available. So we'll continue to do that as well.

第三，我們多年來所做的事情是收購具有可用關鍵供應鏈組件技術的中小型公司。所以我們也將繼續這樣做。

So those are the 3 that we have in place up and running: LM Ventures, LM Evolve and the acquisition process to bring those kind of capabilities into -- or an affiliation with Lockheed Martin.

因此，我們已經建立並運行了 3 個：LM Ventures、LM Evolve 以及將這些能力引入——或與洛克希德馬丁公司的附屬機構的收購過程。

And next, we'll go to Rob Spingarn with Melius Research.

接下來，我們將與 Melius Research 一起前往 Rob Spingarn。

Best of luck, Greg. Jim, I want to ask you a high-level question, particularly because you're a pilot. The Air Force is facing a shortage of pilots, and the Navy is planning to have at least 60% of the carrier air wings uncrewed. And so given that Lockheed is so strong on manned aircraft, I wanted to ask you about unmanned and the positioning there and how that fits into the long-term plans of both the Air Force and the Navy.

祝你好運，格雷格。吉姆，我想問你一個高層次的問題，特別是因為你是一名飛行員。空軍正面臨飛行員短缺的問題，而海軍正計劃讓至少 60% 的艦載機聯隊無人駕駛。因此，鑑於洛克希德在有人駕駛飛機方面如此強大，我想問你關於無人駕駛飛機的定位以及它如何符合空軍和海軍的長期計劃。

So Rob, autonomy is 1 of the 14 critical technologies that we think are essential in the 21st century. And to everyone's credit at the company, we've been investing in Skunk Works and other parts of the company, including Sikorsky, in autonomy for 15-plus years, right? This is not an easy thing to do or an easy thing to get approved or regulated. But Lockheed Martin and Sikorsky, when it was part of UTC and thereafter, had been working on autonomy for quite some time.

所以 Rob，自治是我們認為在 21 世紀必不可少的 14 項關鍵技術之一。值得稱讚的是，我們在 Skunk Works 和公司的其他部門（包括西科斯基）的自主投資已經有 15 多年了，對吧？這不是一件容易的事情，也不是一件容易獲得批准或監管的事情。但洛克希德·馬丁公司和西科斯基公司，當它是 UTC 的一部分時，以及之後的一段時間，一直在致力於自治。

So the Aeronautics side of it, I can't say much about because it's pretty highly classified. But we're far down the road on crewed, uncrewed teaming. And in the January call, we expect to have hit a couple of milestones in that, that I'll be able to explain in some more detail, but we want to get the testing done before we talk about it. But we're far down the road there, mainly out of Skunk Works, as I said.

所以它的航空方面，我不能說太多，因為它是高度機密的。但我們在載人、無人合作的道路上還很遙遠。在 1 月份的電話會議中，我們預計會達到幾個里程碑，我將能夠更詳細地解釋，但我們希望在討論之前完成測試。但正如我所說，我們離那裡還很遠，主要是在臭鼬工廠之外。

And then on the rotorcraft side, if you get the aviation week from maybe 3 or 4 months ago that showed a Sikorsky helicopter flying around with no people in it, right? I've actually flown in the Matrix helicopter, we call it, which is a DARPA project that's run out of Sikorsky. It has 3 -- and they all work, by the way. It has 3 modes.

然後在旋翼機方面，如果你從大約 3 或 4 個月前的航空周中看到一架西科斯基直升機在沒有人的情況下四處飛行，對嗎？我實際上乘坐過 Matrix 直升機，我們稱之為它，這是 DARPA 的一個項目，已經用完了 Sikorsky。它有 3 個——順便說一句，它們都可以工作。它有3種模式。

One is manual mode, just like any traditional helicopter. The second mode is sort of assisted like a Tesla, so to speak, right? So you can take over if you need to or if you want to change the flight instantly. And then the third mode is fully automated. And it -- either you plug the mission in a trailer down or up at Stratford, Connecticut, the thing will take off, go do the mission and come back and land on itself. So it's really working already. And then it's a matter of when is the U.S. government and the service is ready to turn these technologies into programs of record. But we'll be ready when they are.

一種是手動模式，就像任何傳統的直升機一樣。第二種模式有點像特斯拉的輔助，可以這麼說，對吧？因此，如果您需要或想立即更改航班，您可以接管。然後第三種模式是完全自動化的。而且它——無論你將任務插入康涅狄格州斯特拉特福的拖車，它都會起飛，去執行任務，然後回來並自行降落。所以它真的已經開始工作了。然後是美國政府何時準備好將這些技術轉化為記錄計劃的問題。但我們會在他們準備好的時候做好準備。

Our next question is from Cai von Rumohr with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 Cowen。

Let me join everybody and say thank you, Greg, for a great job done. And Maria, welcome.

讓我和大家一起對格雷格表示感謝，感謝您完成了出色的工作。還有瑪麗亞，歡迎。

So we haven't talked about inflation. What are you guys seeing and assuming in inflation going forward? And as you know, Bill LaPlante has basically suggested that DoD should kind of kick in to help companies because the current level of inflation was not anticipated where the -- when the contracts were signed. And yet Senator Elizabeth Warren, no big surprise, is saying that's not a good idea.

所以我們還沒有談到通貨膨脹。你們對未來的通脹有何看法和假設？如你所知，比爾·拉普蘭特基本上建議國防部應該介入以幫助公司，因為在簽署合同時沒有預料到當前的通貨膨脹水平。然而，參議員伊麗莎白沃倫毫不意外地表示這不是一個好主意。

So what are you seeing in inflation? And what are you assuming going forward in terms of DoD support?

那麼你在通貨膨脹中看到了什麼？在國防部支持方面，您對未來有何假設？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Sure, Cai. Inflation is twofold: one on our own labor front and then in what we see in the supply chain. For our portfolio of business, is a fair amount of our business that's somewhat insulated because it's not fixed price. And so some of the cost-plus benefits that we get, that risk is not held at Lockheed Martin.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 當然，蔡。通貨膨脹是雙重的：一個是我們自己的勞動力方面，另一個是我們在供應鏈中看到的。對於我們的業務組合而言，我們的相當一部分業務在某種程度上是絕緣的，因為它不是固定價格。因此，我們獲得的一些成本加成收益，洛克希德馬丁公司不承擔這種風險。

For the 60% of our business that is fixed price, a lot of our just contracting policies and actions and implementations revolve around going back to back with our supply chain. Meaning that whatever duration of time that we commit in our contract with our customer, we have the same commitment to our supply chain to us over that same period of time. And so in many of those cases, we don't bear that risk either.

對於我們 60% 的固定價格業務，我們的許多合同政策、行動和實施都圍繞著與我們的供應鏈背靠背展開。這意味著無論我們在與客戶的合同中承諾的持續時間，在同一時間段內，我們對我們的供應鏈都有相同的承諾。因此，在許多情況下，我們也不承擔這種風險。

But it does come into factor as we're going into new bids and proposals with our customer. We are seeing different changes both on the labor side and in supply chain, and it does have an impact really going forward on bid and proposals. It's something that we have to keep in front of us. And we're having dialogues with the customer.

但當我們與客戶進行新的投標和建議時，它確實會成為一個因素。我們在勞動力方面和供應鏈方面都看到了不同的變化，這確實對投標和提案產生了影響。這是我們必須保持在我們面前的東西。我們正在與客戶進行對話。

As you mentioned, there's been a little bit of a shift in policy to DoD as far as acceptance of economic price adjustments, and that's something that we do continue to have dialogue with our customers on in existing contracts, that's subject to funding availability, which has been somewhat difficult to actually obtain. But I think going forward, that's something that certainly would be part of our negotiations and part of our contracting.

正如你所提到的，就接受經濟價格調整而言，國防部的政策發生了一些轉變，這是我們在現有合同中繼續與客戶就現有合同進行對話的事情，這取決於資金可用性，實際獲取起來有些困難。但我認為未來，這肯定會成為我們談判的一部分，也是我們簽約的一部分。

As far as labor is concerned, we have increased our assumptions in our existing backlog contracts. We've been able to absorb that through productivity and other management reserve type of actions. So we've not really seen much of an impact there, but it's certainly a watch item as we go forward.

就勞動力而言，我們在現有的積壓合同中增加了我們的假設。我們已經能夠通過生產力和其他管理儲備類型的行動來吸收這一點。所以我們並沒有真正看到那裡的影響，但它肯定是我們前進的一個手錶項目。

Next, we'll go to Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將與摩根大通一起前往塞思·塞夫曼。

I echo everyone, and best to Greg and to Maria. Going to try and sneak 2 in here real quick. Just Jay, the Wall Street Journal has you this morning saying that growth in 2024 should be low single digits. Is that right? Is that how we should think about it?

我回應每個人，最好是 Greg 和 Maria。打算快速潛入這裡 2。只是傑伊，華爾街日報今天早上有你說 2024 年的增長應該是低個位數。那正確嗎？我們應該這樣想嗎？

And then the second one, I wonder if you could help us with the pension outlook for next year, both FAS and CAS. And then just thinking about the CAS outlook beyond 2024 and how that remaining balance kind of trails off in the coming years.

然後是第二個，我想知道你是否可以幫助我們確定明年的養老金前景，包括 FAS 和 CAS。然後只是考慮 2024 年以後的 CAS 前景，以及未來幾年剩餘的餘額會如何減少。

Sure, Seth. Yes, I think low single digit for 2024 as a baseline is the way you should look at it. We talked on this call today that there are some upside opportunities to that baseline. Missiles and Fire Control is certainly a prime opportunity. Jim talked about opportunities related to HIMARS and other programs, and so there could be upside from where we are today.

當然，賽斯。是的，我認為 2024 年的低個位數作為基線是你應該看待它的方式。我們今天在電話會議上談到，該基線存在一些上行機會。導彈和火控當然是一個絕佳的機會。 Jim 談到了與 HIMARS 和其他計劃相關的機會，因此我們今天所處的位置可能會有好處。

These are ongoing dialogues we're having with our DoD customers. So it's hard to really put them into a firm forecast until we get ourselves a clearer picture in terms of what's going to be under contract and the timing of those deliveries. So I would say low single-digit baseline is the appropriate level to be. We're getting better clarity and I think we'll have a lot more clarity come January, provide our full guidance for 2023 and a better outlook on 2024.

這些是我們與國防部客戶正在進行的對話。因此，在我們更清楚地了解合同內容和交付時間之前，很難真正將它們納入堅定的預測中。所以我想說低個位數的基線是合適的水平。我們的清晰度越來越高，我認為到 1 月份我們會更加清晰，為 2023 年提供完整的指導，並為 2024 年提供更好的前景。

As far as pension's involved, we do expect the FAS income to come down. You're talking in the range of say $50 million. On the CAS side, we expect the CAS cost to come down as well by about $75 million. So the FAS/CAS adjustment all in, we're expecting to come down by about $125 million. That's if we struck things today. As you know, at the end of the year, we'll have to true up and formally change, but that's based on what we see today. As far as CAS is involved, we're going to have to get back to you in '24 and beyond in that. Greg will have to come back to you, Seth, on that.

就養老金而言，我們確實預計 FAS 收入會下降。你說的範圍是 5000 萬美元。在 CAS 方面，我們預計 CAS 成本也將下降約 7500 萬美元。因此，FAS/CAS 調整全部完成，我們預計將減少約 1.25 億美元。那就是如果我們今天撞到了東西。如你所知，在今年年底，我們將不得不進行調整併正式改變，但這是基於我們今天所看到的。就涉及 CAS 而言，我們將不得不在 24 年及以後與您聯繫。格雷格將不得不回到你身邊，賽斯，關於那個。

Next question is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Greg, congratulations, and welcome, Maria.

格雷格，恭喜你，歡迎你，瑪麗亞。

Jim and Jay, thank you for providing color on the specific headwinds in 2023. But maybe taking a step back for a 30,000-foot view, the defense budget environment is pretty robust. We saw the '22 budget request up mid-single digit. The Ukraine military aid so far adds another 10% to the '22 modernization budget. Your book-to-bill also year-to-date is 1.1x. I guess I would have thought that these items could have offset the specific 2023 headwinds you called out. So maybe absent the specific programs you mentioned, should we expect the portfolio to grow above, below or in line with the overall DoD budget?

吉姆和傑伊，感謝您為 2023 年的特定逆風提供顏色。但也許退後一步，從 30,000 英尺的角度來看，國防預算環境非常穩健。我們看到 22 年的預算請求達到了中個位數。迄今為止，烏克蘭的軍事援助為 '22 現代化預算增加了 10%。年初至今您的帳單到帳單也是 1.1 倍。我想我會認為這些項目可以抵消你所說的 2023 年的特定逆風。所以也許沒有你提到的具體項目，我們是否應該期望投資組合增長高於、低於或符合國防部的整體預算？

So Kristine, I would say, first of all, that the defense budget is expected to go above and beyond what the President's original submission was a few months back in 2023, right? Now even if that happens, and we do expect it to happen, and I would just point out a couple of programs that probably would benefit from that, and that includes C-130 in that and F-35 production. But it hasn't happened yet, so we're not putting it into our forecast.

所以克里斯汀，我想說，首先，國防預算預計將超過總統幾個月前在 2023 年提交的原始預算，對嗎？現在即使發生這種情況，我們確實希望它發生，我只想指出幾個可能會從中受益的項目，其中包括 C-130 和 F-35 生產。但它還沒有發生，所以我們沒有把它納入我們的預測。

And let me just take a minute to step back and really reemphasize what Jay said, in that we don't have enough real information right now in the -- early in the fourth quarter of the year to even give much more than an estimate of what the trend will be next year. So starting in 2024, we're going to start doing January guidance that's formal. We're not going to do anything ahead of that. And I'll tell you the 3 issues that I've learned in my couple of years in management here we just don't have clarity on.

讓我花一點時間退後一步，真正重新強調傑伊所說的話，因為我們現在沒有足夠的真實信息 - 在今年第四季度初，甚至無法提供比估計更多的信息明年的趨勢是什麼。因此，從 2024 年開始，我們將開始在 1 月份進行正式的指導。在此之前，我們不會做任何事情。我會告訴你我在這幾年的管理中學到的三個問題，我們只是不清楚。

One is the defense budget, which you just raised a minute ago. We don't know what it's going to be. In January, we'll know what the defense budget is going to be. And then along with that, what's the status of the major orders and contracts that get put into that budget because as you're again pointing out, what's the mix of the budget increase going to be as far as what the contracts and orders come from that. And then finally, we don't necessarily have status of what the supply chain health is going to be even in 2023 yet because if there's another COVID spike in the winter like there was last time, we're going to have effects in our supply chain.

一個是國防預算，你剛剛在一分鐘前提出的。我們不知道它會是什麼。一月份，我們將知道國防預算將是多少。除此之外，進入該預算的主要訂單和合同的狀態如何，因為正如您再次指出的那樣，預算增加的組合是什麼，就合同和訂單的來源而言那。最後，即使在 2023 年，我們也不一定了解供應鏈的健康狀況，因為如果像上次那樣在冬天再次出現 COVID 高峰，我們的供應就會受到影響鏈。

So there's -- those 3 issues really makes it, I think, almost impossible to give you really high confidence trending information, which has been a tradition at the company when the defense budget was rising 5% to 10% a year. But that's not -- and there was no COVID, by the way, but that's not the situation now.

因此，我認為，這三個問題確實使您幾乎不可能向您提供真正高度可信的趨勢信息，當國防預算每年增長 5% 到 10% 時，這一直是公司的傳統。但事實並非如此——順便說一句，沒有 COVID，但現在情況並非如此。

So we're going to start next cycle without trying to give you a trend line in October. We'll give you as solid of a formal guidance as we can in Jan of 2024 because of all this. Having said that, even on the products that we fully anticipate are going to get increases because there have been actions inside of government to make it happen, I used the analogy last call of the clutch wasn't engaged yet even on the order process and paperwork that needs to come to us so we can actually start production.

因此，我們將開始下一個週期，而不是試圖為您提供 10 月份的趨勢線。由於這一切，我們將在 2024 年 1 月為您提供盡可能可靠的正式指導。話雖如此，即使在我們完全預期會增加的產品上，因為政府內部已經採取了行動來實現這一點，我用了一個比喻，即使在訂單過程中，離合器的最後一次呼叫還沒有接合，需要交給我們的文書工作，這樣我們才能真正開始生產。

The way I'd characterize it now is that the clutch is engaging but into some lower gears initially, right? So the process has started. I really give Dr. LaPlante and others a lot of credit, Andrew Hunter in the Air Force, et cetera, the secretaries of the Air Force, Navy and Army departments are all engaged in making this happen. But it does take time to get through, especially on international FMS contracts and commercial sales, too.

我現在描述它的方式是離合器正在接合但最初進入一些較低的檔位，對嗎？所以這個過程已經開始。我真的非常感謝 LaPlante 博士和其他人，空軍的 Andrew Hunter 等等，空軍、海軍和陸軍部門的部長們都在為實現這一目標而努力。但這確實需要時間才能完成，尤其是在國際 FMS 合同和商業銷售方面。

So for all those reasons, Kristine, it's really hard for us to estimate what -- at this point in the cycle, what programs are really going to benefit. But I'm pretty sure that F-35 and C-130 would be in there. Many of the MFC products, we've already talked about. Black Hawk demand, internationally especially, is genning up and as well as F-16. So I think there's a lot of significant areas where the company can benefit with an additional defense budget increase.

因此，出於所有這些原因，克里斯汀，我們真的很難估計——在這個週期的這個階段，哪些項目真正會受益。但我很確定 F-35 和 C-130 會在那裡。許多 MFC 產品，我們已經討論過。黑鷹的需求，尤其是國際上的需求正在增加，F-16 也是如此。因此，我認為公司可以通過增加國防預算在許多重要領域受益。

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Yes. And so Kristine, we fully expect, as Jim mentioned, to participate in this industry upside. You're going to see that in the orders in the backlog. And what we're talking about here is converting that to sales taking a little bit longer than expected. I think the important thing to remember in terms of 2023 is that in spite of a lower outlook from a sales perspective, even the margin pressure, we're still delivering the same amount of free cash flow that we told you a year ago. And our free cash flow per share outlook has gotten better because of our share repurchase program.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 是的。所以克里斯汀，正如吉姆提到的，我們完全期望參與這個行業的上行。您將在積壓的訂單中看到這一點。我們在這裡談論的是將其轉換為比預期更長的銷售時間。我認為就 2023 年而言，要記住的重要一點是，儘管從銷售角度來看前景較低，即使是利潤率壓力，我們仍然提供與一年前告訴你的相同數量的自由現金流。由於我們的股票回購計劃，我們的每股自由現金流前景變得更好。

Next question is from Peter Arment with Baird.

下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can.

我們可以。

Congratulations, Greg. Appreciate all your effort. Jay, just maybe you made -- Jim made a comment about the Aeronautics kind of flat to kind of slightly down in '23, but then sustainment becomes a bigger piece of the story as we get into '24. Should we be thinking about Aeronautics kind of troughing out in 2023? Is that kind of what you're implying? Or are there other puts and takes that we should be thinking about longer term?

恭喜，格雷格。感謝你所有的努力。傑伊，也許你做了——吉姆對航空業的評論在 23 年有點平淡到有點下降，但是隨著我們進入 24 年，維持成為故事的重要組成部分。我們是否應該考慮到 2023 年航空業會出現低谷？你的意思是這樣的嗎？或者還有其他我們應該考慮長期的看跌期權嗎？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ No. Yes, I think so. I think next year, they're dealing with some of the transition related to the changes in delivery profiles on the F-35 -- the production contract. And again, we're just catching up some inventory because some of the delivery profile has moved around. Once that abates, that headwind, we're going to see at least a leveling off on the production side, which will lead the growth for sustainment and growth in classified programs and growth on the F-16 program. And so I would expect them in '24 and beyond to have a nice growth trajectory.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 不。是的，我想是的。我認為明年，他們將處理與 F-35 交付配置文件變化相關的一些過渡——生產合同。再說一次，我們只是在補充一些庫存，因為一些交付情況已經發生變化。一旦這種逆風減弱，我們將看到生產方面至少趨於平穩，這將導致機密項目的維持和增長以及 F-16 項目的增長。所以我希望他們在 24 年及以後有一個很好的增長軌跡。

Yes. And I'd also add there, Peter, that we're starting to get some real traction on our sort of JADO offering, so to speak. And one of them has been mentioned briefly today called Defense of Guam. And that's the really first, well, highly organized DoD major contract to come out that really drives the capability and not just a product or system. And what it's meant to do is integrate, and this is our whole 5G.MIL approach, actually. That's why we won it, I think. Is that integrating current command and control systems in use by the various services.

是的。彼得，我還要補充一點，我們開始在我們的 JADO 產品上獲得一些真正的吸引力，可以這麼說。其中之一今天被簡單地提到，稱為關島防禦。這是真正第一個，很好，高度組織化的國防部主要合同，它真正推動了能力，而不僅僅是一個產品或系統。它的意思是整合，這實際上是我們的整個 5G.MIL 方法。這就是為什麼我們贏了，我想。是集成各種服務使用的當前指揮和控制系統。

So the Army's happens to be provided by Northrop Grumman, for example. We're going to fully incorporate that into the solution and work with them to do it. And then we're going to bring the Aegis system from Lockheed Martin into that mix and a number of other programs and products from a range of OEMs. We're going to work together on this for the first time in this way.

例如，陸軍恰好由諾斯羅普·格魯曼公司提供。我們將把它完全整合到解決方案中，並與他們合作完成。然後我們將把洛克希德馬丁公司的宙斯盾系統和一系列原始設備製造商的許多其他程序和產品引入這個組合。我們將第一次以這種方式合作。

So I think this is going to be a real pathfinder for the future. And once this demonstrates that it can be a success and the industry has got to coalesce and help make it happen with us, we, as an industry, will see more of these opportunities in the 2024-plus time frame, too.

所以我認為這將成為未來的真正探路者。一旦這表明它可以取得成功，並且該行業必須聯合起來並幫助我們實現這一目標，我們作為一個行業，也將在 2024 年以上的時間框架內看到更多這樣的機會。

Next question is from George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

下一個問題來自夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅。

A couple of questions. On the Aeronautics area, LRIP 16, you're not supposed to get in Q4, Jay. Does that come with added sales that you may be working on now as well? And then a second question, if you look at the incremental margin on the profit you provided on the F-35 and the $325 million of sales, it's like 21%. Does that imply that you increased the margin on the F-35 program? And will that help the margin next year? Or is it more than offset by the growth in the sustainment?

幾個問題。在航空領域，LRIP 16，你不應該進入第四季度，傑伊。這是否伴隨著您現在可能正在從事的額外銷售？然後是第二個問題，如果你看看你在 F-35 上提供的利潤和 3.25 億美元的銷售額的增量利潤率，大概是 21%。這是否意味著你增加了 F-35 項目的利潤？這會對明年的利潤率有所幫助嗎？或者它是否被持續性的增長所抵消？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Well, on the second question, George, we did have a profit adjustment on the F-35 program and the production program there. So we will see moving forward a higher recurring margin rate there. As far as Q4 and Lot 16, yes, we do expect that order in the fourth quarter. As Jim mentioned, a little bit over $8 billion.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 好吧，關於第二個問題，喬治，我們確實對 F-35 計劃和那裡的生產計劃進行了利潤調整。因此，我們將在那裡看到更高的經常性保證金率。就第四季度和第 16 批次而言，是的，我們確實預計第四季度會有訂單。正如吉姆所說，略高於 80 億美元。

I wouldn't -- we do expect a ramp-up in sales at ARRW, including F-35, and that will include F-16. So to answer your question, yes, that will certainly be part of the sales mix here in the fourth quarter.

我不會——我們確實預計 ARRW 的銷量會增加，包括 F-35，這將包括 F-16。因此，要回答您的問題，是的，這肯定會成為第四季度銷售組合的一部分。

Next, we'll go to Rich Safran with Seaport Research Partners.

接下來，我們將與 Seaport Research Partners 一起前往 Rich Safran。

So Jim, I heard your opening remarks about uncertainties on the supply chain and all that. And Jay, I'm going to put you a little bit on the spot here. And hopefully, I'll get you to answer a long-term cash flow outlook question. Because I think last year, you gave a long-term cash flow outlook and even added a year. So you've been talking long term this morning and recognizing there's not a lot of high confidence here. Do you have enough visibility to give us a long-term cash flow update? And if possible, could you catch that in terms of buybacks and free cash flow per share?

吉姆，我聽到了你關於供應鏈不確定性的開場白。傑伊，我要讓你在這兒有點問題。希望我能讓你回答一個長期現金流前景問題。因為我認為去年，您給出了長期現金流展望，甚至增加了一年。所以你今天早上談了很長時間，並認識到這裡沒有很高的信心。您是否有足夠的知名度為我們提供長期的現金流更新？如果可能的話，你能在回購和每股自由現金流方面捕捉到這一點嗎？

Jay Malave;Chief Financial Officer^ Well, Rich, so if you think about our free cash flow last year, and I'm going off a little bit off recall here, we said $6.1 billion in '23. I believe it was $6.2 billion in 2024. I don't see any reason why we can't deliver that and continue to deliver that level of free cash flow beyond '23 and '24. So -- and our free cash flow, again, with the share repurchase program, will get better than what we were saying a year ago.

Jay Malave；首席財務官^ 好吧，Rich，所以如果你想想我們去年的自由現金流，我想在這裡稍微回憶一下，我們在 23 年說 61 億美元。我相信 2024 年是 62 億美元。我認為我們沒有任何理由無法實現這一目標，並在 23 年和 24 年之後繼續提供這種水平的自由現金流。所以——我們的自由現金流，再次，通過股票回購計劃，將比我們一年前所說的更好。

Again, just our management focus on working capital, our management focus, discipline in delivering free cash flow is not going to stop after 1 year. And so I'm pretty confident that we can continue to deliver the free cash flow that we committed to a year ago. And again, our free cash flow per share, our growth, you're looking probably in the range of mid-single-digit growth over this period of time.

同樣，僅我們的管理重點是營運資金，我們的管理重點，提供自由現金流的紀律不會在一年後停止。因此，我非常有信心，我們可以繼續提供一年前承諾的自由現金流。再一次，我們的每股自由現金流，我們的增長，你在這段時間內可能處於中個位數的增長范圍內。

John, this is Greg. I think we've come up to the top of the hour. So with that, I'll turn the call back over to Jim.

約翰，這是格雷格。我想我們已經到了時間的頂端。因此，我將把電話轉回給吉姆。

Sure, Greg. Thanks. I'd like to conclude today by, again, reinforcing what Jay just talked about: our commitment to delivering long-term, attractive and reliable total returns to shareholders, underpinned by our strong cash generation and our robust balance sheet as well as delivering on these 21st century solutions to meet the challenges that our customers are facing in global security right now.

當然，格雷格。謝謝。今天，我想再次強調 Jay 剛才談到的內容：我們致力於為股東提供長期、有吸引力和可靠的總回報，這得益於我們強勁的現金生成和穩健的資產負債表以及兌現這些 21 世紀的解決方案可應對我們的客戶目前在全球安全方面面臨的挑戰。

And if -- some of you might have been around when I was at American Tower, we focused completely on free cash flow per share generation. And that got us through 18 years of up and down cycles, the Great Recession and a few other issues that happened along the way. That's the right metric for this company, too, and that's why Jay and I are so -- is so much emphasizing it today.

如果 - 當我在美國大廈時，你們中的一些人可能就在身邊，我們完全專注於每股一代的自由現金流。這讓我們度過了 18 年的起起落落的周期、大蕭條以及沿途發生的其他一些問題。這也是這家公司的正確指標，這就是為什麼傑伊和我如此——今天如此強調它。

So we're positioning ourselves for anticipated growth inflection in the next few years, investing in innovative technologies for our customers' missions, as I said, and strong repurchases along the way to amplify the per share value creation as we go.

因此，正如我所說，我們正在為未來幾年預期的增長拐點進行定位，為客戶的使命投資創新技術，並在此過程中進行強勁的回購，以擴大每股價值創造。

So thanks again for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you on our next earnings call in January. John, that concludes the call. Thanks, everybody.

因此，再次感謝您今天加入我們，我們期待在 1 月份的下一次財報電話會議上與大家交談。約翰，通話結束。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。