Lemonade Inc (LMND) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Lemonade Q3 2024 earnings call. My name is Maxine, and I'll be coordinating today's call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫瑪克辛，我將協調今天的電話會議。（操作員說明）

I will now hand over to Yael Wissner-Levy, VP of Communications, to begin. Please go ahead when you're ready.

我現在將由通訊副總裁 Yael Wissner-Levy 開始。準備好後請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Lemonade's third-quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Yael Wissner-Levy, and I'm the VP Communications at Lemonade. Joining me today to discuss our results are Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, President and Co-Founder; and Timothy Bixby, our Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我叫 Yael Wissner-Levy，是 Lemonade 的通訊副總裁。今天與我一起討論我們的結果的是執行長兼聯合創始人 Daniel Schreiber； Shai Wininger，總裁兼共同創辦人；以及我們的財務長 Timothy Bixby。

A letter to shareholders covering the company's third-quarter 2024 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.lemonade.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

有關公司 2024 年第三季財務表現的致股東信，請造訪我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.lemonade.com。在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，管理階層在本次電話會議上的言論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our 2023 Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on May 1, 2024 and our other filings with the SEC.

由於各種重要因素的影響，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所示的結果有重大差異，包括我們於2024 年5 月1 日向SEC 提交的2023 年10-Q 表格的風險因素部分中討論的因素以及我們的其他文件與美國證券交易委員會。

Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders.

本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的觀點，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的毛利，我們認為這對投資者評估我們的經營績效可能很重要。我們致股東的信中包含了這些非公認會計準則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。

Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including customers, in-force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex cat and net loss ratio and a definition of each metric, why each is useful to investors and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

我們致股東的信還包括有關我們關鍵績效指標的信息，包括客戶、有效保費、每位客戶的保費、年度保留金額、毛收入保費、毛損失率、除貓總損失率和淨損失率以及定義每個指標，為什麼每個指標對投資者有用，以及我們如何使用每個指標來監控和管理我們的業務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks. Daniel?

接下來，我將把電話轉給丹尼爾做一些開場白。丹尼爾？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter results 2024. Before turning to those, I want to remind you that we'll be holding an Investor Day on November 19, both in person at our New York headquarters and online. We certainly hope you will be able to join us. We will be providing detailed updates of our vision, our AI capabilities, our ambitious plans and how we hope to realize them. In the meantime, let me turn to our third quarter results, which I'm happy to report continued to demonstrate strong progression across the board.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論 2024 年第三季業績。在討論這些問題之前，我想提醒您，我們將於 11 月 19 日舉辦投資者日活動，無論是在紐約總部還是在網路上。我們當然希望您能夠加入我們。我們將提供有關我們的願景、人工智慧能力、雄心勃勃的計劃以及我們希望如何實現這些目標的詳細更新。同時，讓我談談我們的第三季業績，我很高興地報告，該業績繼續顯示出全面的強大進展。

We saw accelerating top-line growth with in-force premium growing by 24%, and we were cash flow positive. Our net cash flow increased by $48 million, our strongest cash flow quarter inception to date. Free cash flow was $14 million positive, but we think that net cash flow better tracks our business than free cash flow does as it incorporates the impact of our synthetic agents program, which is core to our operating model.

我們看到收入加速成長，有效保費成長了 24%，而且現金流為正。我們的淨現金流量增加了 4800 萬美元，這是我們季度開始以來迄今為止最強勁的現金流量。自由現金流為 1400 萬美元，但我們認為淨現金流比自由現金流更好地追蹤我們的業務，因為它包含了我們的綜合代理計劃的影響，而該計劃是我們營運模式的核心。

The bottom line is that we ended the quarter with $979 million in cash and investments, a growing balance and one we expect to grow continuously hence forth, accepting next quarter, as we have said before. The third quarter saw elevated cat or catastrophic-related losses across the industry alongside tragic loss of life.

最重要的是，我們在本季結束時擁有 9.79 億美元的現金和投資，餘額不斷增長，並且我們預計此後將持續增長，接受下個季度，正如我們之前所說。第三季度，整個產業與貓或災難性相關的損失增加，同時也造成了悲慘的生命損失。

Our thoughts and our team's efforts were with those impacted by those events. As has been the case in recent quarters, our business, however, proved highly resilient. Notwithstanding the weather, we delivered a 73% gross loss ratio, our strongest result in four years. This wasn't a one-off. For the fourth consecutive quarter, we saw double-digit improvements in the loss ratio compared to the same quarter one year prior, and our loss ratio is now back where we like to see it, comfortably within our target range.

我們的想法和團隊的努力與那些受這些事件影響的人同在。然而，正如最近幾個季度的情況一樣，我們的業務表現出高度的彈性。儘管天氣惡劣，我們仍實現了 73% 的總損失率，這是四年來的最高成績。這不是一次性的。與去年同期相比，我們連續第四個季度看到損失率出現兩位數的改善，我們的損失率現在回到了我們希望看到的位置，完全在我們的目標範圍內。

How have we done it? It's the very things we've talked about for several quarters now, diversification of the portfolio and intense and sustained efforts in matching rate to risk across the portfolio and across the US. All this enabled us to deliver notably expanded gross margins in Q3.

我們是如何做到的？這正是我們幾個季度以來一直在談論的事情：投資組合的多元化，以及在整個投資組合和整個美國範圍內為將利率與風險相匹配而做出的持續不懈的努力。所有這些使我們在第三季的毛利率顯著提高。

Taken together, accelerating top line growth and expanding gross margins yielded $37 million in gross profit, which represents a 71% year-over-year growth. Accelerating top-line growth, even more dramatic gross profit growth and our best ever cash flow quarter all rendered this a fabulous quarter. We look forward to continuing these trends into 2025 and beyond.

總而言之，加速的營收成長和不斷擴大的毛利率帶來了 3,700 萬美元的毛利，年增 71%。加速的營收成長、更顯著的毛利成長以及我們有史以來最好的現金流季度都使這個季度成為一個神話般的季度。我們期待將這些趨勢延續到 2025 年及以後。

With that, I'd like to hand over to Shai to tell you more about our recent efficiency improvements unlocked via technology. Shai?

接下來，我想請 Shai 向您介紹更多有關我們最近透過科技實現的效率改進的資訊。謝？

Thanks, Daniel. As we've spoken about in recent quarters, technology powers our entire business, and this is continuing to play out in our financial performance. Let me briefly touch on recent gains on the automation front.

謝謝，丹尼爾。正如我們最近幾季談到的，科技為我們的整個業務提供動力，這將繼續體現在我們的財務表現中。讓我簡單談談自動化領域最近的進展。

Automation has proven to be an extremely powerful lever that has powered the strong cash flow performance Daniel mentioned. For example, for the 11th consecutive quarter, we've been able to deliver improvement in IFP per employee as we've delivered strong top line growth while the team has been more or less stable.

事實證明，自動化是一個極其強大的槓桿，為丹尼爾提到的強勁現金流表現提供了動力。例如，連續第 11 個季度，我們能夠實現每位員工的 IFP 改善，因為我們實現了強勁的營收成長，同時團隊或多或少保持穩定。

At more than $700,000 in IFP per employee, growing at more than 30% multi-year CAGR, we're fast approaching best-in-class levels displayed by some of the noninsurance big tech companies who have realized scale. Zooming out to the operating expense base, when excluding growth spend, of which 80% is financed by our partner via the synthetic agents program. Operating expenses were stable year over year. I believe the impact we're seeing is only the beginning. And as we continue to implement new AI capabilities on a daily basis, many more efficiency improvement opportunities are still ahead of us.

每位員工的 IFP 超過 70 萬美元，多年複合年增長率超過 30%，我們正在快速接近一些已實現規模化的非保險大型科技公司所展示的一流水平。縮小到營運費用基礎，當排除成長支出時，其中 80% 由我們的合作夥伴透過綜合代理計畫提供資金。營業費用較去年同期穩定。我相信我們所看到的影響只是一個開始。隨著我們每天繼續實施新的人工智慧功能，我們仍然有更多提高效率的機會。

And now let me hand over the call to Tim, who will cover our financial results. Tim?

現在讓我把電話交給提姆，他將報道我們的財務表現。提姆？

Great. Thanks, Shai. I'll review highlights of our Q3 results and provide our expectations for Q4 and the full year, and then we'll take some questions. Overall, it was again a terrific quarter with results very much in line with or better than expectations and continued notable loss ratio improvement across the board. In-force premium grew 24% to $889 million, while customer count increased by 17% to $2.3 million.

偉大的。謝謝，謝。我將回顧第三季業績的亮點，並提供我們對第四季和全年的預期，然後我們將回答一些問題。總體而言，這又是一個出色的季度，業績非常符合或好於預期，並且全面損失率持續顯著改善。有效保費成長 24%，達到 8.89 億美元，而客戶數量成長 17%，達到 230 萬美元。

Premium per customer increased 6% versus the prior year to $384, driven primarily by rate increases. Annual dollar retention or ADR was 87% up 2 percentage points since this time last year and down slightly versus 88% in the prior quarter. This slight sequential decline is as expected, given our efforts to reduce less profitable portions of our home book in the second half of this year. Gross earned premium in Q3 increased 23% as compared to the prior year to $213 million, in line with IFP growth. Revenue in Q3 increased 19% from the prior year to $137 million.

每位客戶的保費比前一年增加了 6%，達到 384 美元，主要是由於費率上漲所致。年度美元留存率或 ADR 為 87%，自去年同期以來上升了 2 個百分點，與上一季的 88% 相比略有下降。鑑於我們在今年下半年努力減少家庭帳簿中利潤較低的部分，這種輕微的環比下降是符合預期的。第三季的毛收入保費較去年同期成長 23%，達到 2.13 億美元，與 IFP 的成長一致。第三季營收較上年成長 19%，達到 1.37 億美元。

This growth in revenue was driven primarily by the increase in gross earned premium, a slightly higher effective ceding commission rate under our quota share reinsurance, and a 27% increase in investment income. Our gross loss ratio was 73% for Q3 as compared to 83% in Q3 2023 and 79% in Q2 this year. Excluding the total impact of cats in Q3, which was roughly 5 percentage points, our gross loss ratio ex-cat was 68% Cat impact in the quarter was driven primarily by named storms and hurricanes and was about 5 points better than the prior year and 12 points better sequentially.

收入的成長主要是由於毛收入保費的增加、我們的配額份額再保險下的有效分保佣金率略高以及投資收入增長27%推動的。我們第三季的毛損失率為 73%，而 2023 年第三季為 83%，今年第二季為 79%。排除第三季度貓的總影響（大約為 5 個百分點），我們的總損失率為 68%。好12分。

Total prior-period development had a roughly 3% favorable impact, about 1% of that from cat and about 2% non-cat. Trailing 12 months or TTM loss ratio was about 77% or 11 points better year on year and 2 points better sequentially.

前期整體發展產生了約 3% 的有利影響，其中約 1% 來自貓，約 2% 來自非貓。過去 12 個月或 TTM 損失率約為 77%，較去年同期提高 11 個百分點，較上一季提高 2 個百分點。

All of these insurance metrics and more are included in our new insurance supplement that you'll find at the end of our shareholder letter this quarter and going forward. Gross profit increased 71% as compared to the prior year, driven primarily by premium growth and significant loss ratio improvement, while adjusted gross profit increased 55% driven by premium growth and loss ratio improvement.

所有這些保險指標以及更多內容都包含在我們新的保險補充資料中，您可以在本季度及以後的股東信函末尾找到該補充資料。毛利較前一年成長 71%，主要得益於保費成長和賠付率顯著改善，而調整後毛利成長 55%，主要得益於保費成長和賠付率改善。

Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, increased 27% to $125 million in Q3 as compared to the prior year. The increase of $26 million year on year was driven predominantly by an increase in growth acquisition spending within sales and marketing of approximately $27 million, offset by fixed cost savings. Absent the growth spend increase, operating expenses were roughly unchanged year on year.

第三季的營運費用（不包括損失和損失調整費用）較上年增長 27%，達到 1.25 億美元。年比成長 2,600 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和行銷領域的成長收購支出增加了約 2,700 萬美元，但被固定成本節省所抵消。如果沒有成長支出的增加，營運支出則較去年同期保持不變。

Other insurance expense grew 31% in Q3 versus the prior year, slightly ahead of the growth of earned premium. Total sales and marketing expense, as noted, increased by $27 million. primarily due to increased growth spend, partially offset by lower personnel-related costs driven by efficiency gains. Total growth spend in the quarter was $40 million, roughly triple the $13 million in the prior year. We continue to utilize our synthetic agents growth funding program and have financed 80% of our growth spend since the start of the year.

第三季其他保險費用較上年同期成長 31%，略高於已賺保費的成長。如前所述，總銷售和行銷費用增加了 2,700 萬美元。主要是由於成長支出增加，但部分被效率提升推動的人員相關成本下降所抵銷。本季的總成長支出為 4,000 萬美元，約為去年 1,300 萬美元的三倍。我們繼續利用我們的合成劑成長融資計劃，自年初以來已為我們的成長支出提供了 80% 的資金。

As a reminder, you'll see 100% of our growth spend flow through the P&L as always, while the impact of the synthetic agents mechanism is visible on the cash flow statement and the balance sheet, and the net financing to date is about $67 million as of September 30. Technology development expense was flat year on year at $22 million due primarily to continuing cost efficiencies.

提醒一下，您將一如既往地看到我們 100% 的成長支出流經損益表，而綜合代理機制的影響在現金流量表和資產負債表上可見，迄今為止的淨融資約為 67 美元截至9 月30日，已達100 萬元。技術開發費用與去年同期持平，為 2,200 萬美元，主要是由於持續的成本效率。

G&A expense declined 15% as compared to the prior year to $31 million, primarily due to lower personnel and insurance expenses and one-time impacts in both quarters. Absent these non-recurring impacts, the G&A decline was somewhat less, but still meaningful at approximately 7% better. Personnel expense and headcount control continue to be a high priority.

G&A 費用較前一年下降 15% 至 3,100 萬美元，主要是由於人事和保險費用減少以及兩個季度的一次性影響。如果沒有這些非經常性影響，一般行政費用下降幅度會稍微小一些，但仍然有意義，大約提高了 7%。人事費用和員工人數控制仍然是重中之重。

Total headcount is down about 7% as compared to the prior year at 1,216, while the top line IFP again grew fully 24%. Including outsourced personnel expense, which has been part of our strategy for several years, this expense improvement rate is similar. Our net loss was a loss of $68 million in Q3 or $0.95 per share, a 10% decline as compared to the third quarter of 2023, and this change again driven primarily by our increased growth spend. Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $49 million in Q3 versus $40 million in the prior year.

總員工人數比上年減少約 7%，為 1,216 人，而 IFP 收入再次增加了 24%。包括外包人員費用（多年來一直是我們策略的一部分），這項費用改善率是相似的。第三季我們的淨虧損為 6,800 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.95 美元，與 2023 年第三季相比下降 10%，這一變化再次主要是由我們成長支出的增加所推動的。第三季調整後 EBITDA 損失為 4,900 萬美元，而前一年為 4,000 萬美元。

Our total cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter up significantly at approximately $979 million, up $48 million versus the prior quarter, showing a continuing positive net cash flow trend. With these metrics in mind, I'll outline our specific financial expectations for the fourth quarter and the full year. We are increasing our full year expectations for both revenue and gross earned premium, while our other guidance metrics remain unchanged as compared to our prior guidance.

本季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額大幅增加，達到約 9.79 億美元，比上一季增加 4,800 萬美元，顯示出持續的正淨現金流趨勢。考慮到這些指標，我將概述我們對第四季和全年的具體財務預期。我們正在提高對收入和毛收入保費的全年預期，而我們的其他指導指標與先前的指導相比保持不變。

As has been the case in some prior years, there is a notable seasonal difference in our expected results in Q3 versus Q4. Specifically, Q3 is typically our highest growth spend quarter of the year, which drives up sales and marketing spend and also typically a higher expected loss ratio as compared to Q4.

與前幾年的情況一樣，我們對第三季和第四季的預期結果有顯著的季節性差異。具體來說，第三季度通常是我們一年中支出成長最高的季度，這會推高銷售和行銷支出，與第四季度相比，通常也會出現更高的預期損失率。

Our loss ratio experience, especially for cat in the third quarter this year was quite favorable as compared to our expectations, and this drove over performance in Q3, which doesn't necessarily recur in Q4. Our fourth quarter guidance, therefore, incorporates our typical view for expected results. From a gross spend perspective, we expect to invest roughly $35 million in Q4, which is nearly 3 times the growth spend from Q4 in the prior year to generate profitable customers with a healthy lifetime value.

與我們的預期相比，我們的損失率經驗，特別是今年第三季的貓，非常有利，這推動了第三季的業績，而這種情況不一定會在第四季度重現。因此，我們的第四季指引納入了我們對預期結果的典型看法。從總支出的角度來看，我們預計第四季將投資約 3,500 萬美元，幾乎是上一年第四季成長支出的 3 倍，以產生具有健康生命週期價值的獲利客戶。

We noted last quarter that we also expected to remove approximately $25 million of homeowners IFP or in-force premium from our book, in the second half of 2024, roughly two-third of that in Q3. And this effort serves to somewhat dampen growth in the immediate term while concurrently boosting cash flow and profitability in the medium term and further reducing cat volatility, and we are on track with those prior estimates.

我們上季指出，我們也預計在 2024 年下半年從我們的帳簿中刪除約 2,500 萬美元的房主 IFP 或有效保費，大約是第三季的三分之二。這項努力在一定程度上抑制了短期成長，同時提高了中期現金流和獲利能力，並進一步降低了巨災波動性，而且我們正在按照先前的預期進行調整。

Importantly, though our IFP guidance for the year reflects these plans, it also remains unchanged. We expect that additional growth and marketing efficiencies will continue to offset the impact of these non-renewals. For the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect in-force premium at December 31 of between $940 million and $944 million, gross earned premium of $222 million to $225 million, revenue of $144 million to $146 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss of between $29 million and $25 million, stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million, capital expenditures of approximately $3 million and a weighted average share count for the quarter of approximately 72 million shares.

重要的是，儘管我們今年的 IFP 指導反映了這些計劃，但它也保持不變。我們預計額外的成長和行銷效率將繼續抵消這些不續約的影響。對於2024 年第四季度，我們預計截至12 月31 日的有效保費將在9.4 億美元至9.44 億美元之間，毛收入保費將在2.22 億美元至2.25 億美元之間，營收將在1.44 億美元至1.46 億美元之間，調整後EBITDA 損失將在2,900 萬美元之間2,500 萬美元，股票補償費用約 1,600 萬美元，資本支出約 300 萬美元，本季加權平均股數約 7,200 萬股。

And for the full-year 2024, we expect, again, in-force premium at the end of the year of $940 million to [94] gross earned premium of between $823 million and $826 million, revenue of between $522 million and $524 million, adjusted EBITDA loss between $155 million and $151 million, stock-based compensation expense of approximately $64 million, capital expenditures of approximately $10 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 71 million shares for the full year.

對於 2024 年全年，我們再次預計，年底有效保費將達到 9.4 億美元，[94] 毛收入保費將在 8.23 億美元至 8.26 億美元之間，收入將在 5.22 億美元至 5.24 億美元之間，調整後的EBITDA 虧損在1.55 億美元至1.51 億美元之間，股票補償費用約為6,400 萬美元，資本支出約1,000 萬美元，全年加權平均股數約為7,100 萬股。

And with that, I would like to hand things back over to Shai to answer some questions from our retail investors.

說到這裡，我想把事情交給 Shai 來回答散戶投資者的一些問題。

Thanks, Tim. We'll now turn to our shareholders' questions submitted through the safe platform. Timothy asks, what is the expansion plan for Lemonade Auto Insurance? Thanks for the question, Timothy. The organization has rallied around car in a remarkable way in order to position ourselves for rapid growth.

謝謝，蒂姆。我們現在將討論透過安全平台提交的股東問題。Timothy 問，Lemonade Auto Insurance 的擴張計畫是什麼？謝謝你的提問，提摩西。該組織以一種非凡的方式圍繞汽車團結起來，以便為快速成長做好準備。

2025 will see us roll out car in several additional states. We'll prioritize those with the most attractive LTV dynamics and regulatory environments that facilitate timely rate approvals. Importantly, we expect the unlock on car growth to come from multiple directions, cross-selling to our existing customer base as well as acquiring new customers.

2025 年，我們將在另外幾個州推出汽車。我們將優先考慮那些具有最具吸引力的 LTV 動態和監管環境的企業，以促進及時的利率批准。重要的是，我們預計汽車成長將來自多個方向，包括向現有客戶群進行交叉銷售以及獲取新客戶。

In the next question, Ben asked, what is the time line for access to Lemonade insurance services in all 50 states? Thanks, Ben.

在下一個問題中，Ben 問道，在所有 50 個州獲得 Lemonade 保險服務的時間範圍是多少？謝謝，本。

We already sell some of our products in all 50 states and are currently already available for the overwhelming majority of the US population when it comes to our more mature products. As for car, 2025 marks a year of notable geographic expansion. We expect to continue this in 2026 and launch more states where we can grow our car product profitably. Paperbag wanted to know about our view on insurers who outsource work such as data science and AI and whether that is a risk to our business model.

我們的部分產品已在全美 50 個州銷售，目前我們較成熟的產品已可供絕大多數美國人口使用。對汽車而言，2025 年標誌著地域擴張顯著的一年。我們預計將在 2026 年繼續這項舉措，並推出更多可以讓我們的汽車產品獲利的州。Paperbag 想了解我們對外包資料科學和人工智慧等工作的保險公司的看法，以及這是否對我們的商業模式構成風險。

Thanks for the question, Paperbag. Legacy insurers have been outsourcing data science and AI work for over a decade. Yet despite these costly efforts, consumers haven't really noticed major changes in experience or insurance pricing. I believe there are many reasons for this lack of progress, such as the challenge of changing century-old processes and culture in organizations that are highly conservative by design. Anyone who worked for a large corporation knows how resistant to change and risk averse these organizations can become.

謝謝你的提問，紙袋。十多年來，傳統保險公司一直在外包資料科學和人工智慧工作。然而，儘管付出了這些代價高昂的努力，消費者並沒有真正注意到體驗或保險定價的重大變化。我認為造成這種缺乏進展的原因有很多，例如在設計上高度保守的組織中改變百年流程和文化所面臨的挑戰。任何在大公司工作過的人都知道這些組織會變得多麼抗拒改變和規避風險。

Implementing AI and automation is even harder because these are advancements that threaten job security and demand new skills from seasoned employees. Insurers weren't founded as tech companies, and so they rely on traditional vendors to provide essential systems. And since no single system runs an entire insurance company end-to-end, they're forced to work with dozens, if not more, of third-party providers.

實施人工智慧和自動化更加困難，因為這些進步威脅到工作保障並需要經驗豐富的員工來掌握新技能。保險公司並不是作為科技公司成立的，因此他們依賴傳統供應商提供基本系統。由於沒有一個系統能夠端到端地運行整個保險公司，因此他們被迫與數十個（如果不是更多的話）第三方提供者合作。

Creating a seamless AI-powered experience that delivers personalized customer interactions, improves efficiency and drives better underwriting and pricing require a unified full stack system with AI at its core. Unlike traditional insurers, the Lemonade platform was designed, built and maintained in-house, and I believe this is our secret weapon.

創建無縫的人工智慧驅動的體驗，提供個性化的客戶交互，提高效率並推動更好的承保和定價，需要一個以人工智慧為核心的統一的全堆疊系統。與傳統保險公司不同，Lemonade 平台是在內部設計、建造和維護的，我相信這是我們的秘密武器。

Blender, our insurance operating system, integrates everything, from customer interactions on our app, websites or phone to advertising attribution, customer segmentation, LTV modeling, pricing, underwriting, claims and more. I believe this level of control coupled with a team passionate about progress and change gives us an unfair advantage and a defensible moat that's hard to replicate.

Blender 是我們的保險作業系統，它整合了一切，從客戶在我們的應用程式、網站或電話上的互動，到廣告歸因、客戶細分、LTV 建模、定價、承保、索賠等。我相信這種程度的控制加上對進步和改變充滿熱情的團隊為我們帶來了不公平的優勢和難以複製的防禦護城河。

And with that, let me turn the call back to the operator for more questions from our friends from the street.

接下來，讓我將電話轉回給接線員，詢問更多街頭朋友的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jack Matten, BMO.

（操作員說明）Jack Matten，BMO。

One on the cash flow outlook, it was good to see the positive operating cash flow this quarter. I guess, can you talk about how much you expect cash flow to ramp up and improve next year? And if we exclude the synthetic agent financing benefit, is there a time when Lemonade expects to be consistently cash flow positive just on an operating cash flow basis?

就現金流前景而言，很高興看到本季的正營運現金流。我想，您能談談您預計明年現金流量會增加和改善多少嗎？如果我們排除合成代理融資收益，Lemonade 是否會期望僅在營運現金流的基礎上持續實現正現金流？

Sure. So we're at the point now where this quarter, we generated significant cash flow on all the different measures, operating cash flow, free cash flow and net cash flow. Heading into next year, we will expect to see net cash flow consistently positive from here on out. And exiting next year, we expect operating cash flow to be wholly positive from there on out. EBITDA will follow likewise in '26 by year end.

當然。因此，本季我們在所有不同的指標上都產生了大量現金流，包括營運現金流、自由現金流和淨現金流。進入明年，我們預計淨現金流從現在開始將持續為正。明年退出時，我們預計營運現金流從那時起將完全為正值。到 26 年底，EBITDA 也將同樣跟進。

And then just on the guidance for this upcoming quarter, for adjusted EBITDA, you've maintained the full year guide even though you beat by a little bit in the third quarter. I guess anything notable driving, I guess, like a slightly lower implied guide for the fourth quarter? I think it seems you might be guiding for higher growth spend. I'm not sure if that was it or if there's anything else flowing into that.

然後，就即將到來的季度的指導而言，對於調整後的 EBITDA，儘管您在第三季度略有增長，但您仍然保持了全年指導。我猜想有什麼值得注意的推動因素，例如第四季略低的隱含指南？我認為您可能會指導更高的成長支出。我不確定是否就是這樣，或者是否有其他因素流入其中。

Yes, there's a couple of notable things in the second half generally for us and for the sector and then a couple of specific things. So generally, we have the seasonally strongest growth quarter in Q3 versus Q4. We're accelerating our growth spend and likewise, our growth significantly this year versus the prior year, spending roughly 3 times more in Q3. Q4 tends to be a slightly lighter growth spend and growth quarter than Q3. But because we're continuing to ramp spend, that decline will be very modest.

是的，下半年對我們和整個行業來說有一些值得注意的事情，然後是一些具體的事情。因此，總的來說，與第四季相比，第三季的季節性成長最為強勁。我們正在加快成長支出，同樣，今年我們的成長與去年相比顯著增加，第三季的支出增加了約 3 倍。第四季的支出和成長季度往往略低於第三季。但由於我們持續增加支出，因此下降幅度將會非常小。

We'll spend slightly less in Q4 than Q3, something on the order of $35 million versus $40 million. So that drives the sort of top line dynamic, which does flow through the P&L. Also notable is the loss ratio expectation and the CAT impact. So Q3 is typically the highest CAT impact quarter. This Q3 turned out to be not the case, and that was really a source of much of our overperformance in Q3 versus our expectations.

我們第四季的支出將略低於第三季度，分別為 3,500 萬美元和 4,000 萬美元。因此，這推動了頂線動態，它確實流經損益表。同樣值得注意的是損失率預期和 CAT 影響。因此，第三季通常是 CAT 影響最大的季度。事實證明，第三季的情況並非如此，這確實是我們第三季表現超出預期的主要原因。

Q4, again, because it's the forecast and not actual, we do have our typical conservative assumptions on loss ratio there. So the net of all that led us to the point to say we are confident the second half looks fundamentally unchanged with some modest timing differences shifting from Q4 to Q3.

同樣，第四季度，因為這是預測而不是實際情況，所以我們確實對損失率做出了典型的保守假設。因此，總而言之，我們有信心下半年看起來基本上沒有變化，只是從第四季到第三季發生了一些適度的時間差異。

That's helpful. And then last one, just quickly on the delta between the net and gross loss ratio was a little bit higher, I think, around 8 points this quarter. I know last quarter, it's kind of gone the other way. Anything notable driving the delta this quarter? And is there kind of like a normal run rate between those two metrics that you would expect going forward?

這很有幫助。最後一個，淨損失率和總損失率之間的差異很快就有點高了，我認為，本季約為 8 個點。我知道上個季度，情況有點相反。本季有什麼值得注意的推動三角洲發展的事情嗎？您期望未來這兩個指標之間是否存在類似正常的運作率？

Yes. It was a little wider than usual. And then on occasion, it's been narrower than usual. I think we've had a few quarters that would have been identical or within a point or normal is somewhere in between. This quarter, there were a couple of notable items.

是的。它比平常寬一點。有時，它會比平常更窄。我認為我們有幾個季度是相同的，或者在一個點內，或者正常情況是介於兩者之間。本季有幾個值得注意的項目。

So our quota share applies to some of our business, but not all of our business. So there were -- most of the CAT in this quarter was related to named storms, hurricanes and so that is excluded from our quota share agreements. Though our experience was good, the numbers were low, it's excluded from quota share. So we bore more of that impact, and that drives the difference between gross and net on the order of about 4 points.

所以我們的配額份額適用於我們的部分業務，但不是我們的全部業務。因此，本季的大部分 CAT 都與指定的風暴、颶風有關，因此這被排除在我們的配額份額協議之外。雖然我們的體驗很好，但人數很少，不包括在配額份額中。因此，我們承受了更多的影響，這導致總和淨值之間的差異約為 4 個百分點。

Another notable item that you'll see detailed in the footnotes of our letter and in our 10-Q that's coming out shortly, we did have a large loss in our auto business from pre-acquisition Metromile that impacted our gross loss ratio by about 2 points on a gross basis.

另一個值得注意的項目，您將在我們信函的腳註和即將發布的10-Q 中看到詳細信息，我們的汽車業務確實因收購Metromile 而遭受了巨大損失，這對我們的毛損失率造成了約 2總分。

So we had a really nice result, 73% without that one-time adjustment for a pre-acquisition claim, that would have been 2 points better. And again, that flows through also about 2 points to the net loss ratio. The rest is [Uli]. So 73 points gross, 81 net and the difference is those three items. I'd expect the difference to be in the low single digits more consistently, 3 or maybe 4 points typically, but it does vary from that.

所以我們得到了一個非常好的結果，73%，如果沒有對收購前索賠進行一次性調整，結果會好 2 個百分點。同樣，這也影響了淨損失率約 2 個百分點。剩下的就是[烏利]。總分 73 分，淨分 81 分，差額就是這三項。我預計差異會更一致地保持在低個位數，通常是 3 點或 4 點，但情況確實有所不同。

Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.

賈森·赫夫斯坦，奧本海默。

Two questions. One, are we seeing any advancements on the technical AI side, whether it's chips or cloud capability you're able to buy that could have any further impact on the business, let's say, in the next 12 to 18 months?

兩個問題。第一，我們是否看到人工智慧技術的任何進步，無論是晶片還是您可以購買的雲端功能，都可能對業務產生進一步的影響，比如說，在未來 12 到 18 個月內？

And then secondly, I appreciate the expanded disclosure at the end of the release. If we think about the IFP breakdown and we kind of look at like the percentages and the trends, if we're thinking out over the next 12 months, I don't want to get ahead of your Analyst Day, but how do you think about the mix changing over the next 12 months?

其次，我很欣賞發布結束時的擴展披露。如果我們考慮 IFP 細分，我們會關注百分比和趨勢，如果我們考慮未來 12 個月的情況，我不想在分析師日之前提前，但您認為如何未來 12 個月的組合會發生什麼變化？

Jason, let me take the first one and hand it over to Tim for the second of those. The answer to your question is yes. And I will kind of tease or do a promo because a lot of the Investor Day will show a lot of our AI capabilities behind the scenes. So you'll see -- hopefully in person there, but you'll see a lot of the machinery behind the scenes, how we are harnessing all of the advancements in AI. I know it's a very topical thing to be saying.

傑森，讓我拿第一個，然後把第二個交給提姆。你的問題的答案是肯定的。我會進行一些調侃或宣傳，因為投資者日的許多時間都會展示我們在幕後的人工智慧能力。所以你會看到——希望能親自到場，但你會看到幕後的許多機制，我們如何利用人工智慧的所有進步。我知道這是一個非常熱門的話題。

As you know, we've been talking like this since 2015 when we founded the company. So we've really built ourselves on top of an AI infrastructure. And what we're feeling at the moment is that we're running, we're sprinting, we always have, but we're sprinting on a conveyor belt where the ground beneath us is moving pretty fast as well.

如你所知，自 2015 年我們創立公司以來，我們一直在這樣談論。因此，我們確實將自己建立在人工智慧基礎設施之上。我們此刻的感覺是，我們在跑步，我們在衝刺，我們一直如此，但我們是在傳送帶上衝刺，而我們腳下的地面也移動得很快。

And the two combine in powerful ways, if you look back at the last couple of years and just at the financial metrics, and you see more or less 50% top-line growth over the last couple of years. And if you actually look at our OpEx over the same time frame, it's shrunk, not grown, same for headcount.

兩者以強有力的方式結合在一起，如果你回顧過去幾年並只關注財務指標，你會發現過去幾年的營收成長了 50% 左右。如果你實際上看看我們在同一時間段內的營運支出，你會發現它是萎縮了，而不是成長了，員工人數也是如此。

So it's highly extraordinary to grow our company 50% and spend less rather than more in so doing. It's not that we're using less, and we're not sacrificing quality or anything else, the customer satisfaction is great. So it's not that we're using less intelligence to get the job done. It's just more and more of it is not human intelligence. And looking forward, as the capabilities of the underlying AIs continue to advance, yes, we are well set to harness those.

因此，我們的公司成長了 50%，花費更少而不是更多，這是非常了不起的。這並不是說我們使用較少，也沒有犧牲品質或其他任何東西，客戶滿意度很高。因此，這並不是說我們在完成工作時使用了更少的智慧。只是越來越多的東西不再是人類的智慧了。展望未來，隨著底層人工智慧的能力不斷進步，我們已經做好充分利用這些的準備。

And let me kind of leave the rest for Investor Day because we'll show you a lot of the metrics and the technologies that underpin that. Tim?

讓我把剩下的事情留到投資者日吧，因為我們將向您展示許多支撐這些指標的指標和技術。提姆？

And maybe a comment or two on mix and mix shift. So I'll start at a somewhat higher level, so from a market standpoint, our coverage now is quite broad across both the US and in Europe. From a population standpoint, we're covering anywhere between 60% and 90% of the US population in all of our products with the exception of car and car is growing fairly significantly.

也許還有關於混合和混合轉變的一兩則評論。因此，我將從更高的水平開始，因此從市場的角度來看，我們現在的覆蓋範圍在美國和歐洲都相當廣泛。從人口角度來看，除汽車外，我們的所有產品都覆蓋了 60% 至 90% 的美國人口，而且汽車的成長相當顯著。

We're covering 50% of the population of Europe. We're starting to see really good growth there. So the mix will continue to move in the direction it has. Today's mix is a lagging indicator. So our mix actually increased for pet from this year Q3 versus the prior year.

我們涵蓋了歐洲 50% 的人口。我們開始看到那裡的良好成長。因此，這種混合將繼續朝著現有的方向發展。今天的組合是一個落後指標。因此，與去年相比，今年第三季我們的寵物組合實際上有所增加。

But again, that's a lagging indicator of where growth was coming from, and we expect that to shift and has begun to shift based on the new sales that are coming in and our growth efforts that are shifting towards car. So I think over time, if you look at the next year or the next three years, you'll see that trend continue and likely accelerate where car today represents something like 15% of our business. That will start to move upwards over time and represent a larger and larger part of the business.

但同樣，這是成長來源的滯後指標，我們預計這種情況會發生變化，並且已經開始根據新的銷售量和我們轉向汽車的成長努力而改變。因此，我認為，隨著時間的推移，如果你展望明年或未來三年，你會發現這種趨勢仍在繼續，並且可能會加速發展，如今的汽車業務約占我們業務的 15%。隨著時間的推移，這一比例將開始上升，並在業務中所佔的比例越來越大。

Part of what gives us real confidence there is the progress in the loss ratio. We gave some real detail in the supplement that we'd encourage you all to take a look at.

讓我們真正有信心的部分原因是損失率的進步。我們在補充資料中提供了一些真實的細節，我們鼓勵大家都看一下。

Our car loss ratio has come down quite dramatically as rate approvals have come online. And even the loss ratio reported now this quarter would have been something like 10 points better given if you adjust for this onetime adjustment that we made. So all systems are go for car. We will do a much deeper dive at Investor Day, and we look forward to doing that.

隨著費率批准上線，我們的汽車損失率大幅下降。如果您根據我們所做的一次性調整進行調整，即使是本季現在報告的損失率也會提高 10 個百分點左右。所以所有系統都適用於汽車。我們將在投資者日進行更深入的探討，我們期待這樣做。

Katie Sakys, Autonomous.

凱蒂·薩克斯，自主。

I wanted to start first with some of the re-underwriting actions you guys have been taking in the home owners line. To what extent did the cat load this quarter benefit from those early re-underwriting actions? And maybe if it's too early to start seeing an impact there, to what extent would you guys expect your full year cat load next year to reflect the shift in exposure there?

我想先從你們在房主領域採取的一些重新承保行動開始。本季的巨災負載在多大程度上受益於這些早期的再承保行動？也許如果現在開始看到那裡的影響還為時過早，那麼你們預計明年全年的貓負荷會在多大程度上反映那裡暴露的變化？

So I don't have an exact number for you. It was probably fairly nominal in this quarter exactly, but over time, we'll start to see that play out more significantly. We expected or do continue to expect about $25 million or so of IFP to come off the books by year end. Most of it or about two-third of it or so already in Q3 and then the balance in Q4. So that impact, I expect will grow over the coming quarters.

所以我沒有給你一個確切的數字。在本季度，這可能只是名義上的，但隨著時間的推移，我們將開始看到這種情況更加顯著。我們預計或確實繼續預計，到年底，IFP 的帳面價值將達到約 2,500 萬美元。大部分或大約三分之二左右已經在第三季度，然後是第四季度的餘額。因此，我預計這種影響將在未來幾季內擴大。

One note, I think, that we have shared in the letter that's worth noting is what our business would have looked like, what our loss ratio would have looked like this quarter, something like 40% or so worse had we not been pursuing these efforts over time. And it's not just the home immediate-term home non-renewals, it's a much broader effort to both underwrite and re-underwrite in areas where we are confident and that we're seeing across the whole book, including home.

我認為，我們在信中分享的值得注意的一點是，如果我們不採取這些努力，我們的業務會是什麼樣子，本季度我們的損失率會是什麼樣子，大約 40% 左右更糟隨著時間的推移。這不僅僅是家庭的短期家庭不續約，而是在我們有信心並且在整本書中看到的領域（包括家庭）進行更廣泛的承保和重新承保的努力。

Great. And then maybe shifting to car a little bit. Thanks again for all the additional detail in the supplement this quarter. I was wondering if you could offer us any additional color on the nature of the improvement to the car gross loss ratio. How much of that is coming from shifts in frequency versus exposure?

偉大的。然後可能會稍微轉向汽車。再次感謝本季度補充資料中的所有其他詳細資訊。我想知道您是否可以就汽車總損失率改善的性質向我們提供任何其他資訊。其中有多少來自頻率與曝光的變化？

And then what does the cat exposure profile for the car product look like relative to the home owners product?

那麼，相對於房主產品而言，汽車產品的貓暴露情況是什麼樣的呢？

The cat exposure, I'll take that first, is minimal. It's not zero, but it's far less of a concern or a risk than it is for the home business, and that really is a difference in storms really in the nature of storms and how they affect the car business. The real driver of the loss ratio improvement is rate, rate across the board and certainly rate in California, which was amplified by the size of the California business and the scope of that rate increase, 50% or so rate increase. So that is more or less as expected as that rolls through the renewals of the California book and the car book in general.

首先，我認為貓的暴露程度是最小的。它不是零，但它遠不如家庭企業那麼令人擔憂或風險，這確實是風暴的不同之處，真正在於風暴的性質以及它們如何影響汽車業務。損失率改善的真正驅動力是費率，全面的費率，當然還有加州的費率，加州業務的規模和費率上漲的範圍放大了這一點，50%左右的費率上漲。因此，隨著加州書和汽車書的更新，這或多或少符合預期。

Tommy McJoynt, KBW.

湯米·麥克喬恩特，KBW。

When you bridge the gap from this year having negative $150 million of EBITDA roughly in the guidance to positive EBITDA in 2026, can you either quantify or even just rank order the main line drivers of what's driving that improvement over that 2-year span, looking at things like improving loss ratios or using less quota share reinsurance or just growing premiums, kind of rank order or quantify those drivers, please?

當您彌補今年 1.5 億美元負 EBITDA 的差距，到 2026 年實現正 EBITDA 時，您是否可以量化或甚至只是對推動兩年跨度改善的主線驅動因素進行排序，看看在諸如提高損失率或使用更少的配額份額再保險或只是增加保費之類的事情上，請排序或量化這些驅動因素？

Tommy, let me kind of give us some broad strokes and then Tim do backfill with any details that you think I've missed. But in broad strokes, we're seeing an incredibly steady driver over the last few years, and we think it's the same drivers that will continue over the next couple of years.

湯米，讓我給我們一些大致的思路，然後蒂姆用你認為我錯過的任何細節進行補充。但從廣義上講，我們在過去幾年中看到了令人難以置信的穩定驅動力，我們認為在接下來的幾年中，這些驅動力將繼續存在。

If you look at our EBITDA as a fraction of gross earned premium, what some people would call an EBITDA margin, if you like. And you look back four, five years and you say, what was our EBITDA losses per dollar of gross earned premium, it stood at $0.50-something. And then it's been improving at a rate of 10% per year.

如果您將我們的 EBITDA 視為毛收入保費的一部分，如果您願意的話，有些人會稱之為 EBITDA 利潤率。當你回顧四年、五年時，你會說，每美元毛收入保費我們的 EBITDA 損失是多少，大約是 0.50 美元。然後它以每年 10% 的速度提高。

So then it was $0.40-something. This year, it's $0.20-something cents, we'll be in the teens next year, in the single digits the year after. And as I've said, before the end of that year, we expect to cross over from 0 and go into positive territory. So the first thing to point out is that this has been a very steady, predictable line that you can draw. Our path to profitability can literally be drawn on a graph and has been pretty consistent for some time.

那麼當時的價格是 0.40 美元左右。今年是 0.20 美分左右，明年會是十幾歲，後年是個位數。正如我所說，在今年年底之前，我們預計將從 0 跨越並進入正值區域。所以首先要指出的是，這是一條非常穩定、可預測的線，你可以畫出來。我們的獲利之路實際上可以繪製在圖表上，並且一段時間以來一直非常一致。

In fact, our statement that we expect to be EBITDA positive towards the end of '26 dates back three or four years. I think it was 2021 when we first said that. So this has been a very consistent and almost bankable march towards profitability with cash flow positivity already on the way, as we had said and EBITDA profitability to follow.

事實上，我們預計 26 年底 EBITDA 為正值的聲明可以追溯到三、四年前。我想我們第一次這麼說是在 2021 年。因此，正如我們所說，這是一次非常一致且幾乎可以實現盈利的邁向盈利能力的進程，正現金流已經在路上，而 EBITDA 盈利能力也將隨之而來。

But the underlying most natural or obvious or simple kind of way to answer your question is that we're seeing tremendous operational efficiency. This was our hypothesis for years that when you build a company on technology, you can scale without increasing expenses, and it has shifted from being a credible hypothesis to a really proven result.

但回答你的問題的最自然、最明顯或最簡單的方式是，我們看到了巨大的營運效率。這是我們多年來的假設，當你依靠技術建立一家公司時，你可以在不增加費用的情況下擴大規模，而且它已經從一個可信的假設轉變為一個真正經過驗證的結果。

You look back, as I said earlier, over the last couple of years, and you see that our expenses have not budged, our headcount has not budged. Our gross profit has doubled, and our top line has grown by 50%. We expect that dynamic to continue. We think we're going to be able to continue to grow our business without growing our expense line or at least growing it at a far, far more moderate pace. And that dynamic should lead us not merely, has led us to cash flow positivity, will lead us to EBITDA profitability will then lead us to net profitability.

正如我之前所說，回顧過去幾年，您會發現我們的開支沒有變化，我們的員工人數沒有變化。我們的毛利翻了一番，營收成長了 50%。我們預計這種動態將持續下去。我們認為，我們將能夠在不增加費用線的情況下繼續發展我們的業務，或至少以更溫和的速度成長。這種動力不僅會引導我們實現正現金流，還將引導我們實現 EBITDA 獲利能力，然後將引導我們實現淨利潤。

And I do believe before not too long to massive profitability. I think it's that same basic kind of physics, if you like, of growing a top line at a profitable gross profit -- profitable gross margin while holding expense line pretty stable. Tim, anything you want to add to that?

我確實相信不久之後就能實現大規模獲利。我認為，如果你願意的話，這也是同樣的基本物理原理，即以可盈利的毛利潤來增加營收——可盈利的毛利率，同時保持費用線相當穩定。提姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just two notes, and it follows the exact same track. One is a couple of years ago, when we were looking out and thinking about resources and then people and fixed costs tend to move together. We're looking at and expecting the growth rate similar to what we had started to see, which is in the 10%, 15%, 20% range. Now we look out and we've seen actually a decline in overhead expenses for quite some time, almost two years at this point. Now fixed costs will not decline forever.

只要兩個音符，它就遵循完全相同的軌道。一是幾年前，當時我們正在尋找並思考資源，然後人員和固定成本往往會一起移動。我們正在觀察並預期成長率與我們開始看到的類似，在 10%、15%、20% 的範圍內。現在我們放眼望去，我們發現管理費用實際上已經下降了相當長一段時間，目前已經近兩年了。現在固定成本不會永遠下降。

They will grow, but they will grow. We expect at a much, much more modest pace. And that, when you draw that line out a couple of years and grow those expenses at a 2% or 4% or 6% rate versus a 15% rate, it's just an extraordinary difference. And that's what we're seeing right now, and that's the key driver. From a top line perspective, I would look at gross profit.

他們會成長，但他們會成長。我們預計會以非常非常溫和的速度進行。而且，當你劃出幾年的界限，並將這些費用以 2%、4% 或 6% 的速度增長，而不是 15% 的速度增長時，這只是一個非凡的差異。這就是我們現在所看到的，也是關鍵的驅動因素。從營收角度來看，我會關注毛利。

What has gross profit done over the past three years, this year alone, growing 70%. So it doesn't -- you roll that out two or three years. You continue to see that significant leverage because loss ratio has improved so much and there's still room for that to improve. Those two dynamics, coupled together cut that EBITDA burn quite consistently over the next 24 months.

過去三年的毛利，光是今年就成長了70%。所以它不會——你將其推出兩三年。您會繼續看到顯著的槓桿作用，因為損失率已經改善了很多，而且仍有改善的空間。這兩種動態結合在一起，會持續減少未來 24 個月的 EBITDA 消耗。

And then to give us an update on the success of cross-selling, do you have any update on the number of policies per customer and how that has trended over the past couple of years?

然後，為了向我們介紹交叉銷售成功的最新情況，您是否有關於每個客戶保單數量的最新資訊以及過去幾年的趨勢？

Yes. So a couple of metrics there. It's actually a fairly consistent metric. There's a couple of areas where when we look at our longer-term modeling and think about what can go even more right. We have a lot of things that are going right today.

是的。這裡有幾個指標。這其實是一個相當一致的指標。當我們審視我們的長期模型並思考哪些領域可以變得更加正確時，有幾個領域。今天我們有很多事情進展順利。

We expect that retention can and will improve over time, but we don't assume or model that it will improve. But we have a lot of opportunity for retention that comes in the form of multi-policy and upsells. All of those come together, something like 4.6% or so of our customers today are multi-policy customers. That's a relatively low number, but it's stable. So when we're growing the business at 25% or 30%, that number is staying stable.

我們預計留存率會隨著時間的推移而提高，但我們並不假設或建模它會提高。但我們有許多機會以多種政策和追加銷售的形式留住人才。所有這些加在一起，我們今天大約 4.6% 左右的客戶是多保單客戶。這是一個相對較低的數字，但很穩定。因此，當我們的業務以 25% 或 30% 的速度成長時，這個數字就會保持穩定。

That's in absolute terms, that's a significant increase. And in those states where we have all the policies available for those customers who have multiple policies, all the dynamics are much stronger. Retention is better. The willingness to buy that third policy is higher, loss expectation, the risk profile tends to be better. All the metrics are better for that type of customer.

從絕對值來看，這是一個顯著的成長。在那些我們為擁有多種保單的客戶提供所有保單的州，所有的動力都更強。保留效果更好。購買第三種保單的意願較高，損失預期較高，風險狀況往往較好。所有指標都更適合該類型的客戶。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Stein, FT Partners.

（操作員說明）Andrew Stein，FT Partners。

You mentioned in the letter that the diversification across geographies, products, partner placements and then the targeted non-renewals are behind the gross loss ratio improvement. So I was just wondering if you could dimension the impact of each of those areas. And then where does the most opportunity lie looking forward?

您在信中提到，毛損率改善的背後是跨地域、產品、合作夥伴佈局的多元化以及有針對性的不續約。所以我只是想知道您是否可以衡量每個領域的影響。那麼未來最大的機會在哪裡呢？

So I don't have an exact number for each of those that we've disclosed. I think there's no silver bullet there. I think home is certainly the most significant impact, which is why we've mentioned it just in absolute terms, $25 million out of the book in six months is a very focused and notable impact. But that's something we have done on a consistent basis with at a lower rate over time, and we'll continue to do that where we see business that with better information and a more accurate understanding of the risk of the customer starts to look highly unprofitable, we'll continue to make those efforts. Part of the impact in the quarter, I think, is the -- our exposure in the home business is pretty fairly low risk.

因此，我沒有我們所披露的每一項的確切數字。我認為那裡沒有靈丹妙藥。我認為家庭肯定是最重要的影響，這就是為什麼我們只從絕對值上提到它，六個月內的 2500 萬美元是一個非常集中和顯著的影響。但隨著時間的推移，我們一直在以較低的利率持續這樣做，並且我們將繼續這樣做，當我們看到擁有更好的資訊和對客戶風險更準確的理解的業務開始看起來非常無利可圖時，我們將繼續做出這些努力。我認為，本季的部分影響是——我們在家庭業務中的風險相當低。

So when you're not in Florida in the home business, most of the large cats affected pretty specific areas. These are the kinds of things we're a little cautious about, and we do that elsewhere. So we have had a fairly light California cat impact this year, but we are very thoughtful about those risks as well. So each of those areas, I think, has contributed to some extent to the improved loss ratio.

因此，當你不在佛羅裡達州做家庭生意時，大多數大型貓科動物都會影響相當特定的區域。我們對這些事情有點謹慎，我們在其他地方也這樣做。因此，今年我們對加州貓的影響相當輕微，但我們也對這些風險深思熟慮。因此，我認為，這些領域中的每一個都在一定程度上對改善損失率做出了貢獻。

I'll just add, Andrew to that. Yes. Just to say, as Tim said, I too don't have top of mind the exact division between the different factors. But I will point out that our loss ratio improved everywhere. So this wasn't one thing, one magic bullet.

安德魯，我補充一下。是的。只是說，正如蒂姆所說，我也不太關心不同因素之間的確切劃分。但我要指出的是，我們的損失率在各方面都有所改善。所以這不是一件事，只是一顆靈丹妙藥。

We saw and we've disclosed this every single product in all of our geographies saw improvements. So this has been a lot of effort across the board, across the geography, across our product base, across the company, and we're really seeing no holdout. Nothing is bad. Everything is getting better, as I say, both Europe and the US and home and renters and pet and really across the board.

我們看到並且我們已經披露了這一點，我們所有地區的每一款產品都看到了改進。因此，這是整個公司、整個地區、整個產品庫、整個公司付出的巨大努力，我們確實沒有看到任何堅持。沒有什麼是不好的。正如我所說，一切都在變得更好，無論是歐洲還是美國，無論是家庭、租屋者或寵物，都是全面的。

I'll just underline as well, Tim mentioned this in passing in his comments, but the loss ratio overall improved really quite dramatically. We're talking about 10 points year on year, 11 points and then another 10 points from the year before, 20 points over the course of the last couple of years, which is rather stunning, I think, by most standards.

我也強調一下，蒂姆在評論中提到了這一點，但整體損失率確實得到了顯著改善。我們談論的是同比 10 分，11 分，然後又比前一年提高 10 分，在過去幾年裡提高了 20 分，我認為，以大多數標準來看，這是相當驚人的。

But if you take a look at our car loss ratio, it has dropped very beautifully, very dramatically and yet it's understated. About 10 points of the loss ratio as reported from a single claim that was resolved years later in an elongated lawsuit that predates our acquisition of Metromile. You take that out as I think it's not an unreasonable thing to do, although it's not what accounting practices have us do.

但如果你看一下我們的汽車損失率，你會發現它下降得非常漂亮、非常顯著，但還是被低估了。根據單一索賠報告，損失率約為 10 個百分點，幾年後，在我們收購 Metromile 之前的一場曠日持久的訴訟中，該索賠得到了解決。你把它去掉，因為我認為這並不是一件不合理的事情，儘管這不是會計實務要求我們做的事情。

And you see suddenly our car loss ratio in the 80-ish mark and you compare that to where it was a quarter or two ago, and you realize the trajectory that we're on. And I think that ties back also to Tommy's question earlier about cross-selling. While these have been relatively stable, as car loss ratio gets to where we want it to be, we'll start unleashing the power of cross-selling car to our existing customers much more, and that will impact the annual dollar retention and cross-sells and multiproduct lines and all those things have been relatively stable. We're approaching the point where we can unleash a lot of those capabilities.

你會突然看到我們的汽車損失率達到 80 左右，並將其與一兩個季度前的情況進行比較，你就會意識到我們所處的軌跡。我認為這也與湯米之前關於交叉銷售的問題有關。雖然這些相對穩定，但隨著汽車損失率達到我們想要的水平，我們將開始更多地向現有客戶釋放交叉銷售汽車的力量，這將影響年度美元保留和交叉銷售銷售和多產品線以及所有這些都相對穩定。我們正在接近可以釋放許多這些能力的階段。

Got it. And yes, that was going to be my next question, just expanding on how the upsell process and the experience there is going for moving renters policyholders to auto.

知道了。是的，這將是我的下一個問題，只是擴展了追加銷售流程和經驗如何將租車保單持有人轉移到汽車上。

Sure. And we'll talk about this at some length. So this is my second promo for the Investor Day. We will show some really interesting stats, and I don't want to gum that. So I'll leave some of the fun and sexy stuff for a couple of weeks from now.

當然。我們將詳細討論這個問題。這是我為投資者日做的第二次促銷。我們將展示一些非常有趣的統計數據，我不想透露這一點。所以我會把一些有趣又性感的東西留到幾週後。

But we're doing a lot. And we haven't wanted. We've kind of been up until fairly recently proactively withholding those kind of cross-sells, no point cross-selling a product that wasn't itself profitable. That's not the way we do things. As car now arrives at its destination or is nearing it, we're starting to do a lot of trial and error, and we will share some of the numbers behind that just a couple of weeks from now.

但我們正在做很多事情。而我們並沒有想要。直到最近，我們一直在主動抑制這類交叉銷售，交叉銷售本身不獲利的產品是沒有意義的。這不是我們做事的方式。隨著汽車現在到達或接近目的地，我們開始進行大量的試驗和錯誤，我們將在幾週後分享背後的一些數字。

Charlie Rogers, Jefferies.

查理·羅傑斯，杰弗里斯。

So I think you guys were mentioning earlier that embedded in the guide for the fourth quarter, there is conservative CAT estimates there. I was wondering if you guys could maybe elaborate or talk a little bit about what your expectation for losses related to hurricane Milton might be within that?

所以我認為你們之前提到第四季的指南中包含保守的 CAT 估計。我想知道你們是否可以詳細說明或談談你們對與颶風米爾頓相關的損失的預期可能在其中？

Yes. Our experience with all the CATs to date, including Milton, have been quite nominal. Obviously, they can develop more over time. Milton is the most recent one. But we're not concerned about that developing into anything material at this point.

是的。到目前為止，我們對包括 Milton 在內的所有 CAT 的經驗都只是名義上的。顯然，隨著時間的推移，他們可以發展得更多。米爾頓是最新的一位。但我們目前並不擔心它會發展成任何實質的東西。

We're far enough past that that's not too troubling. Q4 is a tricky one generally because the loss ratios tend to be a fair amount better than the other -- almost all three of the other three quarters, notably better Historically, they have been. We've had one or two exceptions with freeze storms, and so we're somewhat cautious. There's an opportunity to have just another great quarter for sure. And then we've also built in an assumption that will be highly likely to happen, which is the pace of our growth spend to set us up for continuing accelerated growth.

我們已經過了足夠遠的時間，這並不算太麻煩。一般來說，第四季度是一個棘手的問題，因為損失率往往比另一個季度要好得多——幾乎是其他三個季度的所有三個季度，特別是從歷史上看，它們一直是這樣。我們遇到過一兩次冰凍風暴的例外，所以我們有些謹慎。肯定有機會再創一個偉大的季度。然後我們也建立了一個極有可能發生的假設，即我們的成長支出步伐，為我們持續加速成長做好準備。

If you look at our growth rate through the quarters of this year, you've seen that year-on-year growth rate that's up each quarter consistently through the course of the year. And so we're able to do that at the same time as we see loss ratios make great improvement. So that combination is something that's led to a great year-to-date period and the Q4 numbers, we hope will come in as expected or better.

如果您查看我們今年各個季度的成長率，您會發現全年每季的年成長率都在持續上升。因此，當我們看到損失率取得巨大改善的同時，我們能夠做到這一點。因此，這種組合導致了今年迄今為止的出色表現，我們希望第四季度的數據能夠達到預期或更好。

Okay. Great. And then could you maybe just give cat and PYD on a net basis?

好的。偉大的。然後你可以直接給 cat 和 PYD 嗎？

Yes. So the CAT impact on a gross basis was about 6%. On a net basis, that would have been about 11%. And then prior period development was about 3% on a gross basis, that would have been about 1% for both of those favorable on a net basis.

是的。因此，CAT 對整體影響約為 6%。以淨值計算，該比例約為 11%。然後，前期發展在毛額基礎上約為 3%，對於淨額基礎上的兩個有利因素來說，這大約是 1%。

And that was PPD, not PYD, correct?

那是 PPD，不是 PYD，對嗎？

That's right. Prior year development is not something that's something that shows up in the Q. That will be year-to-date about $6 million of favorable development, although that's a year-to-date figure. So the development in the quarter was slightly unfavorable, about $2 million unfavorable in the quarter for prior year's development.

這是正確的。上一年的開發並沒有在 Q 中顯示。因此，本季的發展稍微不利，本季的發展比去年的發展不利約 200 萬美元。

Okay. Great. And then I guess last one, if I could. Thanks again for the additional disclosures in the insurance portion of the supplement. But is there any way that you could help dimension within, I believe, what's called home multi-peril in there, the kind of difference between renters, condo and I guess, what would be potentially considered traditional homeowners just in terms of like potentially premium per customer policy, loss ratio?

好的。偉大的。如果可以的話，我猜最後一個。再次感謝補充資料保險部分的額外揭露。但是，我相信，有什麼方法可以幫助您確定所謂的家庭多重危險，即租房者、公寓之間的區別，我猜，就潛在溢價而言，可能被視為傳統房主的東西根據客戶保單，損失率？

Just I guess, any color in there would be helpful.

我想，裡面的任何顏色都會有幫助。

The new disclosures we hope will be super helpful, and we'll continue to evaluate that. I can share some of the metrics we've shared in the past. We do sort of group home and condo together, and that tends to run a price per customer in the sort of $1,500 range, whereas the renter is probably $170 range. So those are notable differences. But that's not something we're necessarily going to break out and disclose every quarter, but just from an order of magnitude basis, that should give you a feel for the distinction.

我們希望新的披露會非常有幫助，我們將繼續評估這一點。我可以分享一些我們過去分享過的指標。我們將集體住宅和公寓結合在一起，每位客戶的價格往往在 1,500 美元左右，而租戶的價格可能在 170 美元左右。所以這些都是顯著的差異。但這並不是我們每個季度都會打破和披露的內容，但僅從數量級的角度來看，這應該會讓您感受到其中的差異。

Matt Smith, Halter Ferguson Financial.

馬特史密斯，沃特弗格森金融公司。

Congrats on a great quarter, everyone. Looking through the letter, it seems like the near-term priorities are really around kind of limiting exposure to home and as you said, leaning in on car. But thinking longer term, will home kind of remain a shrinking piece of the business? Or is there some plan to kind of reaccelerate growth in that area once the LTV dynamics improve?

恭喜大家度過了一個美好的季度。通讀這封信，近期的優先事項似乎實際上是限制對家庭的接觸，正如你所說，依靠汽車。但從長遠來看，家居業務仍將是不斷萎縮的業務嗎？或者，一旦生命週期價值動態改善，是否有計劃重新加速該領域的成長？

Matt, good to hear your voice. Home is important. It's an important part of every consumer's purchase and insurance needs, and we do aim to cater to our customers 360 degrees. That said, there are many areas in home where we don't have a distinct advantage and where the volatility and the exposure doesn't make sense for us. We have prided ourselves on being a capital-light company with low volatility, and we've not always been able to hold true to that, and that's largely been because of exposure to home.

馬特，很高興聽到你的聲音。家很重要。這是每個消費者購買和保險需求的重要組成部分，我們的目標是 360 度滿足客戶的需求。也就是說，在國內的許多領域我們沒有明顯的優勢，波動性和風險敞口對我們來說沒有意義。我們為自己是一家輕資本、低波動性的公司而感到自豪，但我們並不總是能夠堅持這一點，這在很大程度上是因為對國內的投資。

So we have, over the course of the last few years, worked hard to do a number of things. In the past, we relied on reinsurance to offload a lot of that. We've certainly been diversifying geographically and otherwise. And we hinted a couple of quarters ago that we're also looking at placing homeowners policies on third-party paper where necessary. So our prioritization is really the customer centricity, making sure that we cater to all of our customers' needs.

因此，在過去的幾年裡，我們努力做了很多事情。過去，我們依賴再保險來減輕許多負擔。我們當然一直在地域和其他方面實現多元化。幾個季度前我們曾暗示，我們也在考慮在必要時將房屋保單放在第三方文件上。因此，我們的首要任務實際上是以客戶為中心，確保我們滿足所有客戶的需求。

If it makes sense to write that home policy on our paper, we do that. If it makes sense to write it on our paper and reinsure it, we'll do that. If it makes sense to use a partner's paper as we've done, for example, for earthquake insurance since our very inception, we will do that as well. So we're playing with those tools. I do think it would be fair to say, though, that while we will I think, always cater to the customers' needs and offer homeowners insurance in a way that best suits our business model and plays to our competitive advantage.

如果將家庭政策寫在我們的報紙上有意義，我們就會這麼做。如果將其寫在我們的紙上並對其進行再保險有意義，我們就會這樣做。如果像我們一樣使用合作夥伴的論文是有意義的，例如，自我們成立以來就地震保險而言，我們也會這樣做。所以我們正在使用這些工具。不過，我確實認為可以公平地說，雖然我們會始終滿足客戶的需求，並以最適合我們的業務模式並發揮我們的競爭優勢的方式提供房屋保險。

Our competitive advantage will be and has been more pronounced in other products. So in car insurance, I think we've got an extraordinary competitive advantage. We will elaborate on that at some length in a couple of weeks' time in our Investor Day. We've demonstrated, I think, very ably in pet insurance and renters insurance. I think in homeowners insurance, where it is so exposed to the weather, that does mute some of the capabilities that we bring to bear on other products.

我們的競爭優勢在其他產品上將會且已經更加明顯。所以在汽車保險方面，我認為我們擁有非凡的競爭優勢。我們將在幾週後的投資者日詳細闡述這一點。我認為，我們在寵物保險和房客保險方面已經表現得非常出色。我認為在房屋保險中，它如此暴露於天氣，這確實削弱了我們對其他產品施加的一些功能。

And for that reason, while we will continue to offer it, I don't want to overstate the competitive advantage that we enjoy in that sector. One other thing to add, sorry, Matt, it shouldn't be enough just was. Sorry, just one last thought, which is we've launched homeowners insurance in France. We've launched homeowners insurance in the UK. Those are growing well.

因此，雖然我們將繼續提供它，但我不想誇大我們在該領域享有的競爭優勢。還有一件事要補充，抱歉，馬特，這還不夠。抱歉，最後一個想法是，我們在法國推出了房屋保險。我們在英國推出了房屋保險。這些都生長良好。

CAT exposure in those places is 1/10 or less of what you see across the US. So in areas where it makes financial sense, we're expanding on our own paper and in areas where it affords, I think, unreasonable exposure, we're shrinking the footprint at least when we write on our own paper.

這些地方的 CAT 暴露程度僅為美國各地的 1/10 或更少。因此，在具有財務意義的領域，我們正在自己的論文上進行擴展，而在我認為提供不合理曝光的領域，我們正在縮小足跡，至少當我們在自己的論文上寫作時。

Thank you. That does conclude our Q&A session. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。感謝大家的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。