Lemonade Inc (LMND) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Lemonade's fourth-quarter 2023 earnings call. My name is Yael Wissner-Levy, and I'm the VP Communications here at Lemonade. Joining me today to discuss our results are Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, President and Co-Founder; and Tim Bixby, our Chief Financial Officer. A letter to shareholders covering the company's fourth quarter 2023 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.lemonade.com.

早上好，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。我叫 Yael Wissner-Levy，是 Lemonade 的通訊副總裁。今天與我一起討論我們的結果的是執行長兼聯合創始人 Daniel Schreiber； Shai Wininger，總裁兼共同創辦人；以及我們的財務長 Tim Bixby。有關公司 2023 年第四季財務表現的致股東信，請造訪我們的投資者關係網站 Investor.lemonade.com。

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 3, 2023, our Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on November 3, 2023, and our other filings with the SEC. Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，管理階層在本次電話會議上的言論可能包含 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。由於各種重要因素的影響，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所示的結果有重大差異，包括我們於2023 年3 月3 日向SEC 提交的表格10-K 的風險因素部分中討論的因素，我們的表格10- Q 於 2023 年 11 月 3 日向 SEC 提交了文件，以及我們向 SEC 提交的其他文件。本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們今天的觀點，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。

We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess their operating performance. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders.

我們將在今天的電話會議上提及某些非公認會計準則財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的毛利，我們認為這對於投資者評估其經營業績可能很重要。我們致股東的信中包含了這些非公認會計原則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計原則財務指標的調節表。

Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including customers' in-force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex-CAT, and net loss ratio; and a definition of each metric, why each is useful to investors, and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

我們致股東的信還包括有關我們關鍵績效指標的信息，包括客戶的有效保費、每位客戶的保費、年度保留金額、毛收入保費、毛損失率、除CAT外的毛損失率和淨損失率；以及每個指標的定義，為什麼每個指標對投資者有用，以及我們如何使用每個指標來監控和管理我們的業務。

With that, I will turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks. Daniel?

接下來，我將把電話轉給丹尼爾做一些開場白。丹尼爾？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Lemonade's Q4 results and to offer some perspective both on the outgoing year and on the year ahead. As you will have seen, Q4 was an excellent quarter, capping off a year of dramatic progress for Lemonade.

早安，感謝您與我們一起討論 Lemonade 的第四季度業績，並就即將過去的一年和未來一年提供一些觀點。正如您所看到的，第四季度是一個出色的季度，為 Lemonade 一年的巨大進步畫上了圓滿的句號。

Our top line grew 20% to $747 million of in-force premium, while our quarterly loss ratio came in at 77%, down 12 points from Q4 '22 and down 19 points from Q4 '21. Since Q4 of last year, our adjusted gross profit has nearly doubled, while our adjusted EBITDA loss nearly halved. As I say, dramatic progress.

我們的有效保費收入成長了 20%，達到 7.47 億美元，而我們的季度損失率為 77%，比 22 年第 4 季下降了 12 個百分點，比 21 年第 4 季下降了 19 個百分點。自去年第四季以來，我們調整後的毛利幾乎翻了一番，而調整後的 EBITDA 虧損幾乎減少了一半。正如我所說，取得了巨大的進步。

Moving from the income statement to the cash flow statement, it's noteworthy that we're ending this quarter with a total of $945 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. That is the very same level we reported at the end of the last quarter, and it is up since our report of two quarters ago. While we expect this level to dip somewhat in 2024, we expect our total cash in investments to turn positive again in the first half of 2025 and we expected to dip by less than 10% before reaching that point.

從損益表轉向現金流量表，值得注意的是，本季末我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額為 9.45 億美元。這與我們上季度末報告的水平完全相同，並且自我們兩個季度前的報告以來有所上升。雖然我們預計這一水平在 2024 年會有所下降，但我們預計投資總現金將在 2025 年上半年再次轉為正值，並且在達到這一點之前預計下降幅度不到 10%。

Underpinning our results was a steady stream of improvements in our ability to match rate to risk as well as in our operational efficiencies, all these mediated by a singular integrated system that improves and is improved by all our customer interactions. In many ways, therefore, 2023 was the year when the plan came together, the year when the thesis of Lemonade transitioned from being a hypothesis to being more evidence-based.

我們的成果的基礎是我們將利率與風險相匹配的能力以及我們的營運效率不斷提高，所有這些都是透過單一的整合系統來實現的，該系統透過我們所有的客戶互動來改進並不斷改進。因此，從許多方面來說，2023 年都是計劃制定的一年，也是 Lemonade 的論文從假設轉變為更有證據基礎的一年。

This isn't a mission accomplished moment, not by a long shot. But the progress in 2023 was tangible and material, and it increases our confidence that we're on track not only to turn cash flow positive next year with plenty of cash in the bank, but to build a large, enduring, and profitable business thereafter. We hope our latest results boost your confidence alongside our own.

這不是一個任務完成的時刻，也絕對不是一個成功的時刻。但 2023 年的進展是有形的、實質性的，這增強了我們的信心，我們不僅有望在明年實現正現金流並擁有充足的銀行現金，而且此後將建立一個大型、持久且盈利的業務。我們希望我們的最新結果能增強您和我們自己的信心。

2023's results are all the more noteworthy for the turbulent times in which they materialized. The last couple of years were some of the toughest for both established insurance companies and for up-and-coming tech companies. As dual citizens, we were buffeted by the storms that afflicted both insurance and technology. As we reflect back on this tumultuous period, we find resonance in the famous words of Nietzsche, or Kelly Clarkson, if you prefer, that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

2023 年的結果在實現的動盪時期更加值得注意。過去幾年對老牌保險公司和新興科技公司來說都是最艱難的幾年。作為雙重公民，我們遭受了保險和科技領域的風暴的衝擊。當我們回顧這個動盪的時期時，我們在尼采或凱利克拉克森（如果你願意的話）的名言中找到了共鳴，那就是那些殺不死你的東西會讓你變得更強大。

We are quite sure that we are emerging from these shocks the better for having endured them. We are, we believe, leaner and more focused, stronger and more resilient, with better unit economics and with fewer competitors than would have been the case had the turbulence never come. As the African proverb says, smooth seas never made a skillful sailor.

我們非常確信，我們正在從這些衝擊中走出來，因為我們已經經歷了這些衝擊。我們相信，與動盪從未發生的情況相比，我們更精簡、更專注、更強大、更有彈性，單位經濟效益更好，競爭對手也更少。正如非洲諺語所說，平靜的大海永遠造不出熟練的水手。

As we look forward to 2024, there's reason for optimism that the worst of these storms may be behind us. Inflation appears to be receding, costs of capital may have peaked, and rates are finally catching up with risks. If the headwinds indeed become tailwinds in 2024, that will of course be good news. That said, piloting with tailwinds comes with its own set of challenges.

當我們展望 2024 年時，我們有理由樂觀地認為，最嚴重的風暴可能已經過去。通貨膨脹似乎正在消退，資本成本可能已經見頂，利率終於追上了風險。如果2024年逆風確實變成順風，那當然是個好消息。也就是說，順風飛行也面臨一系列挑戰。

And to explore these, let me hand over to Shai. Shai?

為了探索這些，讓我把任務交給 Shai。謝？

Thank you, Daniel. In 2023, we intentionally slowed our growth to minimize sales of products in areas where we're underpriced. At nearly 20% annual growth, we outpaced most of the industry. Yet for us, it was a slowdown compared to previous years and, if things goes to plan, to coming years as well. And as more rate updates come into effect, we'll have more products in more areas where we can accelerate our growth.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。2023 年，我們有意放慢成長速度，以盡量減少定價過低地區的產品銷售。我們以近 20% 的年增長率超過了大多數行業。然而對我們來說，與前幾年相比，這是一個放緩，如果一切按計劃進行，那麼未來幾年也是如此。隨著更多費率更新的生效，我們將在更多領域推出更多產品，加速我們的成長。

To be clear though, our 77 loss ratio this quarter should not be taken as an indication that our work on rate adequacy is done. We still await significant further rate approvals. And so for much of 2024, we will continue to constrain sales of two products with the highest average premium and the largest markets, home and car.

但需要明確的是，本季 77 的損失率不應被視為我們在利率充足性方面的工作已經完成的跡象。我們仍在等待進一步的利率批准。因此，在 2024 年的大部分時間裡，我們將繼續限制平均溢價最高且市場最大的兩種產品的銷售：家居和汽車。

In other words, we will continue to throttle growth this year, too. That said, the tide has definitely turned. With every passing months, we are seeing more and more opportunities for profitable growth across our portfolio, including home and car, and we will be relaxing these growth constraints accordingly.

換句話說，今年我們也將繼續抑製成長。也就是說，潮流肯定已經轉變了。隨著時間的推移，我們的投資組合（包括房屋和汽車）的獲利成長機會越來越多，我們將相應地放寬這些成長限制。

This is great news. And it's the reason we're projecting to begin to accelerate growth this year. Growth may be a virtue in its own right, but for us, it's a necessity. Our business is still subscale, and so we need to continue growing. And so in 2024, we plan to accelerate our growth rate.

這是個好消息。這就是我們預計今年開始加速成長的原因。成長本身可能是一種美德，但對我們來說，這是一種必然。我們的業務仍然規模較小，因此我們需要繼續成長。因此，到 2024 年，我們計劃加快成長速度。

But beyond being a welcome sign of improving conditions, accelerated growth also presents challenges we want you to be aware of. Specifically, in order to accelerate growth, we are planning to significantly increase our marketing spend in 2024 versus last year, doubling it actually. We believe that we will generate about a 3x return on the additional $55 million planned for marketing this year, but it's important to remember that this ROI won't materialize within the same accounting period.

但除了是條件改善的可喜跡象之外，加速成長也帶來了我們希望您意識到的挑戰。具體來說，為了加速成長，我們計劃在 2024 年大幅增加行銷支出，比去年增加一倍。我們相信，今年計劃用於行銷的額外 5500 萬美元將獲得約 3 倍的回報，但重要的是要記住，這一投資回報率不會在同一會計期間內實現。

In other words, we'll be spending dollar that will positively boost our EBITDA over time, but will be a drag on it in 2024. In the past, that drag translated into a cashflow gap, but our synthetic agent bill has largely taken care of that. Thanks to synthetic agents, most gross dollars spent in 2024 won't impact our cash during the year.

換句話說，隨著時間的推移，我們花費的美元將積極提高我們的 EBITDA，但到 2024 年將對其造成拖累。過去，這種拖累會轉化為現金流缺口，但我們的綜合代理法案已在很大程度上解決了這個問題。由於合成代理，2024 年的大部分支出不會影響我們這一年的現金。

Nevertheless, as GAAP accounting doesn't always follow the cash, our increased growth spend will be registered as a $55 million expense in 2024's EBITDA. All else being equal, that could have translated into year-over-year EBITDA deterioration, but we believe that not all else will be equal.

然而，由於 GAAP 會計並不總是遵循現金，我們增加的成長支出將在 2024 年的 EBITDA 中記為 5,500 萬美元的支出。在其他條件相同的情況下，這可能會導致 EBITDA 逐年惡化，但我們相信並非所有其他條件都相同。

We expect our loss ratio to continue to improve in 2024 and that our new generative AI tech as well as many other technology innovations currently in the pipeline will allow us to grow faster with minimal impact to our OpEx. We believe these improvements will more than offset our growing marketing expenses during the year. Indeed, growing the top line while improving the bottom line is a tricky balancing act, but we plan to pull it off in 2024.

我們預計我們的損失率將在 2024 年繼續改善，我們的新生成式人工智慧技術以及目前正在醞釀的許多其他技術創新將使我們能夠更快地成長，同時對營運支出的影響最小。我們相信這些改進將足以抵消我們今年不斷增長的營銷費用。事實上，在提高利潤的同時增加收入是一個棘手的平衡行為，但我們計劃在 2024 年實現這一目標。

To give a better sense of what 2024 might look like and to share more specifics about the outgoing quarter and year, let me hand it over to Tim. Tim?

為了更好地了解 2024 年可能會是什麼樣子，並分享即將到來的季度和年度的更多細節，讓我將其交給蒂姆。提姆？

Great. Thanks, Shai. I'll review highlights of our Q4 and full-year results and provide our expectations for the first quarter and the full year 2024 for the first time, and then we'll take some questions. It was a strong quarter across the board with excellent loss ratio improvement coupled with rigorous cost control, resulting in strong results exceeding our own expectations.

偉大的。謝謝，謝。我將回顧我們第四季度和全年業績的亮點，並首次提供我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的預期，然後我們將回答一些問題。這是一個全面強勁的季度，損失率顯著改善，加上嚴格的成本控制，取得了超越我們預期的強勁業績。

Zooming out, as noted in our shareholder letter, our actual IFP results in 2023 came in nearly $50 million better than our initial expectations shared a year ago, while EBITDA came in nearly $70 million better. Zooming back in, in-force premium, IFP, grew 20% in Q4 as compared to the prior year to $747 million. Customer count increased by 12% to just over $2 million as compared to the prior year.

縮小範圍，正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，我們 2023 年的實際 IFP 業績比我們一年前的最初預期高出近 5000 萬美元，而 EBITDA 則高出近 7000 萬美元。回過頭來看，第四季的有效保費 IFP 比去年同期成長了 20%，達到 7.47 億美元。與前一年相比，客戶數量增加了 12%，達到略高於 200 萬美元。

Premium per customer increased 7% versus the prior year to $369, driven in roughly equal parts by rate increases as well as mix shift to higher price products. Annual dollar retention, or ADR, was 87%, up 1 percentage point since this time last year. We measure ADR on an annual cohort basis and include the impact of changes in policy value, additional policy purchases, and churn.

每位客戶的保費比前一年增加了 7%，達到 369 美元，這主要是由於費率上漲以及向更高價格產品的混合轉變所推動的。年度美元留存率 (ADR) 為 87%，比去年同期上升了 1 個百分點。我們以年度隊列為基礎衡量 ADR，包括保單價值變化、額外保單購買和流失的影響。

Gross earned premium in Q4 increased 20%, as compared to the prior year to $181 million, in line with IFP growth. Revenue in Q4 increased 31% from the prior year to $116 million. The growth in revenue is driven by the increase in gross earned premium, a slightly lower rate of seeded premium under our quarter share reinsurance structure, and a near doubling of investment income.

第四季的總保費收入與去年同期相比成長了 20%，達到 1.81 億美元，與 IFP 的成長一致。第四季營收較上年同期成長 31%，達到 1.16 億美元。收入的成長是由於毛收入保費的增加、季度份額再保險結構下的種子保費率略有下降以及投資收入幾乎翻倍所推動的。

Our gross loss ratio was 77% for Q4, as compared to 89% in Q4 2022 and 83% in Q3 2023. The impact of CATs in the fourth quarter was roughly 5 percentage points within the gross loss ratio and nearly all driven by winter storm activity. Absent this total CAT impact, the underlying gross loss ratio ex-CAT was in line with the prior quarter and roughly 6 percentage points better than the prior year.

我們第四季的毛損失率為 77%，而 2022 年第四季為 89%，2023 年第三季為 83%。第四季 CAT 的影響約為總損失率 5 個百分點，幾乎全部是由冬季風暴活動造成的。如果不考慮總 CAT 影響，扣除 CAT 後的基本總損失率與上一季一致，比前一年高出約 6 個百分點。

Prior period development was roughly 1.5 percentage points favorable in the quarter. Notably, prior period development from CATs was about 1.5% unfavorable, while non-CAT prior period development was about 3% favorable. Given the notable ups and downs of the quarterly loss ratio, it's all the more useful to also consider the rolling four quarter view of loss ratio, or TTM loss ratio, that we include in our shareholder letter to get a feel for the longer term positive trend for loss ratio that we're experiencing.

本季前期發展約有利 1.5 個百分點。值得注意的是，來自 CAT 的前期發展約為 1.5% 不利，而非 CAT 前期發展約為 3% 有利。鑑於季度損失率的顯著起伏，考慮滾動的四個季度損失率視圖（或 TTM 損失率）更加有用，我們將其納入股東信中，以了解長期積極的情況我們正在經歷的損失率趨勢。

From a product perspective, loss ratio has improved across the business, with the loss ratios of each of the four products we underwrite, renters, home, car, and pet, all improving between 9 percentage points and 18 percentage points year-over-year.

從產品角度來看，整個業務的損失率有所改善，我們承保的租賃、房屋、汽車和寵物四種產品的損失率均較去年同期改善了 9 個百分點至 18 個百分點。

Gross profit and adjusted gross profit have shown notable improvement over time, driven by continued premium growth coupled with loss ratio and investment income improvements. Q4 gross profit increased by 165% to $34 million versus the prior year, while adjusted gross profit increased by 97% over the same period.

隨著時間的推移，在保費持續成長、損失率和投資收益改善的推動下，毛利和調整後毛利顯著改善。第四季毛利較上年成長 165%，達到 3,400 萬美元，調整後毛利較上年成長 97%。

Zooming out a bit, quarterly gross profit has more than quadrupled in just two years, while quarterly adjusted gross profit has nearly tripled. If loss ratio improvement continues as expected, this recent trend of adjusted gross profit growing faster than our top line may well continue for some time.

稍微縮小一點，季度毛利在短短兩年內成長了四倍多，而季度調整後毛利幾乎增加了兩倍。如果虧損率的改善持續如預期，那麼最近調整後毛利成長快於我們營收的趨勢很可能會持續一段時間。

Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, decreased 5% to $90 million in Q4 as compared to the prior year. Other insurance expense grew 18% in Q4 versus the prior year, a bit less than the growth of earned premium and is primarily in support of our increased investment in rate filing capacity.

第四季的營運費用（不包括損失和損失調整費用）與去年同期相比下降了 5%，至 9,000 萬美元。第四季度其他保險費用與去年同期相比增長了 18%，略低於已賺取保費的增長，主要是為了支持我們增加對費率申報能力的投資。

If I had to summarize the financial performance year on year, I would highlight this: top line up 20%, adjusted gross profit up 97%, operating expenses down 5%, and EBITDA loss 44% improved, an impressive combination. We saw a consistent improvement across the other three expense lines, sales and marketing, technology development, and G&A, all coming in lower than the prior year in absolute terms during a year of notable growth.

如果我必須按年總結財務業績，我會強調這一點：營收成長20%，調整後毛利成長97%，營運費用下降5%，EBITDA 虧損改善44%，這是一個令人印象深刻的組合。我們看到其他三個費用項目（銷售和行銷、技術開發以及一般管理費用）持續改善，在顯著增長的一年中，所有費用的絕對值都低於前一年。

Total sales and marketing expense declined by $3 million or 10%, primarily due to lower personnel costs related to efficiency gains. Total growth spend in the quarter was $13 million, in line with the prior year quarter. In July, we began to use our synthetic agents program, which financed about 50% of our Q3 and Q4 growth spend, and we've upped that ratio to 80% since January 1, 2024.

銷售和行銷費用總額下降了 300 萬美元，即 10%，主要是由於與效率提升相關的人員成本降低。本季的總成長支出為 1,300 萬美元，與去年同期持平。7 月，我們開始使用我們的合成代理計劃，該計劃為我們第三季度和第四季度增長支出的約50% 提供了資金，自2024 年1 月1 日以來，我們已將該比例提高到80 %。

As a reminder, you'll see 100% of our growth spend flow through the P&L as always, while the impact of the new growth mechanism is visible on the cash flow statement and balance sheet, and the net total impact is roughly $15 million at year end 2023. Staying with the synthetic agents program a moment longer, we're pleased to share that we've extended our agreement with General Catalyst by another year and added $140 million to this program. The agreement that was due to renew at the end of this year is now set to come up for renewal only at the end of 2025.

提醒一下，您將一如既往地看到我們 100% 的增長支出流經損益表，而新增長機制的影響在現金流量表和資產負債表上可見，淨總影響約為 1500 萬美元。2023 年底。繼續關注合成製劑計劃，我們很高興地告訴大家，我們已將與 General Catalyst 的協議再延長一年，並為此計劃增加了 1.4 億美元。原定於今年底續簽的協議現在預計要到 2025 年底才續約。

Back to costs, technology development expense decreased 10% to $20 million, due primarily to a reduction in personnel-related costs, while G&A expense decreased 7% as compared to the prior year to $29 million. Personnel expense and headcount control continue to be a high priority. Total headcount is down about 8% as compared to the prior year, at 1,258, while the top-line IFP, as noted, grew about 20%.

回到成本方面，技術開發費用下降 10%，至 2,000 萬美元，主要是由於人員相關成本的減少，而一般管理費用比上年下降 7%，至 2,900 萬美元。人事費用和員工人數控制仍然是重中之重。與前一年相比，總員工人數減少了約 8%，為 1,258 人，如前所述，頂線 IFP 增長了約 20%。

Net loss was $42 million in Q4, or a loss of about $0.61 per share, about 35% better as compared to the $64 million loss, or $0.93 per share we reported in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $29 million in Q4 as compared to the $52 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the fourth quarter of 2022, about 44% better.

第四季淨虧損為 4,200 萬美元，即每股虧損約 0.61 美元，比我們在 2022 年第四季報告的 6,400 萬美元虧損，即每股虧損 0.93 美元約好 35%。第四季調整後 EBITDA 損失為 2,900 萬美元，比 2022 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 損失 5,200 萬美元高出約 44%。

Our total cash, cash equivalents, and investments ended the quarter at approximately $945 million, reflecting primarily a use of cash for operations of $119 million since year end 2022, while total cash equivalents and investments is down only $92 million in that same period. And as Daniel noted, total cash and investments actually increased by about $3 million since June 30, 2023.

本季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額約為 9.45 億美元，主要反映自 2022 年底以來營運現金使用量為 1.19 億美元，而同期現金等價物和投資總額僅減少了 9,200 萬美元。正如 Daniel 所指出的，自 2023 年 6 月 30 日以來，現金和投資總額實際上增加了約 300 萬美元。

Now with these goals and metrics in mind, I'll outline our specific financial expectations for the first quarter and for the full year of 2024. Please note, our approach to guidance this year is measured as always, but it's realistic and it's in line with our own internal expectations. While we certainly delivered excellent results in 2023, particularly when compared to our original guidance for the year, we don't currently expect that same magnitude of overachievement in 2024.

現在，考慮到這些目標和指標，我將概述我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的具體財務預期。請注意，我們今年的指導方法一如既往地進行衡量，但它是現實的，並且符合我們自己的內部期望。雖然我們在 2023 年確實取得了出色的業績，特別是與我們當年的最初指導相比，但我們目前預計 2024 年不會取得同樣程度的超額業績。

While there is always the aspiration for outperformance, especially this early in the year, we would urge listeners' caution about assuming that our guidance is overly conservative. It is not.

雖然人們總是渴望表現出色，尤其是在今年年初，但我們敦促聽眾謹慎行事，不要認為我們的指導過於保守。它不是。

For the first quarter of 2024, we expect in-force premium at March 31 of between $789 and $791 million, gross earned premium of between $183 million and $185 million, revenue between $111 million and $113 million, and adjusted EBITDA loss of between $43 million and $41 million. We also expect a stock-based compensation expense of approximately $15 million in the quarter, capital expenditures of approximately $2 million in the quarter, and a weighted average share count of approximately 70 million shares.

對於2024 年第一季度，我們預計截至3 月31 日的有效保費將在789 至7.91 億美元之間，毛收入保費將在1.83 億至1.85 億美元之間，收入將在1.11 億至1.13 億美元之間，調整後EBITDA 損失將在4,300 萬美元之間和 4,100 萬美元。我們也預計本季的股票補償費用約為 1,500 萬美元，資本支出約為 200 萬美元，加權平均股數約為 7,000 萬股。

Now for the full year of 2024, we expect in-force premium at December 31 of between $938 million and $942 million, gross earned premium between $815 million and $820 million, revenue between $505 million and $510 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss between $160 million and $155 million. Stock-based compensation expense for the full year, we estimate to be approximately $60 million; capital expenditures, approximately $10 million; and a weighted average share count for the full year of approximately 71 million shares.

現在，對於2024 年全年，我們預計截至12 月31 日的有效保費將在9.38 億美元至9.42 億美元之間，毛收入保費將在8.15 億美元至8.2 億美元之間，收入將在5.05 億美元至5.1 億美元之間，調整後EBITDA 損失將在160 美元之間1.55 億美元和 1.55 億美元。全年股權激勵費用，我們預計約6,000萬美元；資本支出約1000萬美元；全年加權平均股數約 7,100 萬股。

And finally, I note that we've published a handy deep dive guide to a couple more detailed accounting topics in conjunction with our shareholder letter. You'll find the supplementary information on our investor relations website as well. It gives some additional detail on our cash flow, our synthetic agents accounting program, and reinsurance. It's worth a read.

最後，我注意到我們已經與我們的股東信一起發布了一個方便的深入指南，涉及幾個更詳細的會計主題。您也可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到補充資訊。它提供了有關我們的現金流量、綜合代理會計計劃和再保險的一些額外詳細資訊。值得一讀。

And with that, I would like to hand things back over to Daniel to answer some questions from our retail investors. Daniel?

說到這裡，我想把事情交還給丹尼爾來回答我們散戶的一些問題。丹尼爾？

Thanks, Tim. We'll now turn to the question submitted and upvoted by our community of engaged and extremely thoughtful shareholders. And the first one comes from [paper bag] who asks, with car loss ratios improving, how aggressively will Lemonade expand this product? What percentage of IFP is car now, and what might it be in a year?

謝謝，蒂姆。現在，我們將討論由我們積極參與且深思熟慮的股東社區提交並投票的問題。第一個來自[紙袋]，他問，隨著汽車損失率的改善，Lemonade 將如何積極地擴展該產品？現在汽車佔 IFP 的比例是多少？一年後可能會是多少？

So at year's end 2023, car represents about 15% of our total IFP, and we expect it to roughly maintain that share in 2024 and begin to expand significantly in 2025 and beyond. Put differently, car is going from losing share in 2023, to really carrying its own weight and maintaining its share in 2024, to growing its share thereafter.

因此，到 2023 年底，汽車約占我們 IFP 總量的 15%，我們預計它將在 2024 年大致保持這一份額，並在 2025 年及以後開始大幅擴張。換句話說，汽車將從 2023 年失去份額，到 2024 年真正發揮自己的作用並保持其份額，再到此後份額的增長。

In terms of how aggressively we plan to expand, let me say the following. The first is that you're right, of course. As the loss ratio of car comes down to our target range, we will be seeing opportunities to invest much more aggressively in growing the book. That process has begun and it will step up in 2024, but it won't really hit its stride until 2025.

至於我們計劃如何積極擴張，讓我說如下。首先，當然，你是對的。隨著汽車損失率下降到我們的目標範圍，我們將看到機會更積極地投資於增加帳面價值。這項進程已經開始，並將於 2024 年加速推進，但要到 2025 年才能真正取得進展。

But as I say, it has begun. In fact, in 2023, car actually grew significantly in places where profitability was attractive. Now, that wasn't true for our largest markets like California and New Jersey. But outside of those states, our book is relatively small. But it grew at 50% growth rate in 2023. So where opportunities present, we can grow pretty aggressively.

但正如我所說，一切已經開始。事實上，到 2023 年，在盈利能力有吸引力的地方，汽車實際上出現了顯著增長。現在，對於我們最大的市場（如加州和新澤西州）來說，情況並非如此。但在這些州之外，我們的書相對較小。但到2023年，其成長率將達到50%。因此，只要有機會，我們就可以非常積極地發展。

And this foray into growing car has given us data, experience, confidence, and time to adjust rates in those other places. So we will be increasing growth investment in 2024, and we're expecting car to account for 10% to 15% of newly written premiums this year. That's still the breakout we expect car to deliver in due course when the engine is finally tuned and revved up, but we're definitely gearing up towards that.

這種對汽車成長的嘗試為我們提供了數據、經驗、信心和時間來調整其他地方的費率。因此，我們將在 2024 年增加成長投資，預計汽車保費將佔今年新增保費的 10% 至 15%。這仍然是我們期望汽車在引擎最終調整併加速時在適當的時候實現的突破，但我們肯定正在為此做好準備。

There are, this year, several exciting technology advancements that should help with cross-selling and with even further refinement of our telemetry and the data science behind that. Those will be released in 2024 and will really enable us to accelerate growth -- car growth further in 2025. Given that that's the case, we currently project that the share of newly written car premiums next year will probably be double what it is this year. I hope that addresses your question.

今年，出現了幾項令人興奮的技術進步，這些進步應該有助於交叉銷售，並進一步完善我們的遙測及其背後的數據科學。這些產品將於 2024 年發布，並將真正使我們能夠加速成長——2025 年汽車的進一步成長。鑑於這種情況，我們目前預計明年新承保的汽車保費份額可能是今年的兩倍。我希望這能解決您的問題。

The next one comes from Darren. Darren asks -- who asked two questions that are kind of related, so I'm going to bundle them together. Firstly, he says, in Q1 '23, Lemonade had mentioned that generative AI was meaningfully improving cost structure or was expected to over the course of 18 months. And once we are now 12 months or so into those 18 months, are there any financial benefits that have been realized, any evidence for how generative AI can help?

下一篇來自達倫。達倫問——他問了兩個相關的問題，所以我要把它們綁在一起。首先，他說，在 23 年第一季度，Lemonade 提到生成式 AI 正在有意義地改善成本結構，或預計在 18 個月內改善成本結構。當這 18 個月過去 12 個月左右時，是否已經實現了任何經濟利益，是否有任何證據表明生成式人工智慧可以提供幫助？

And he also asked if we could elaborate on how much IFP and customers the current headcount could support, particularly if we had a $10 billion or when we have $10 billion of IFP. And how much larger would our employee base need to be?

他還詢問我們是否可以詳細說明當前員工數量可以支援多少 IFP 和客戶，特別是如果我們有 100 億美元或當我們有 100 億美元的 IFP 時。我們的員工基礎需要擴大多少？

So Darren, those are really great questions. It's exactly the kinds of things that pre-occupy us and that we focus on. Let me start by giving you the rearview mirror, what's been achieved so far, because we've delivered significant operating leverage in recent years. So over the last few years, headcount has grown by 8% compounded annual growth, while IFP has grown by 40% CAGR during the same time. So you can see those dramatic divergence between an 8% headcount expense or payroll expense and the 40% top line.

達倫，這些都是很好的問題。這正是我們所關注和關注的事情。讓我先向您介紹一下迄今為止所取得的成就，因為近年來我們已經實現了顯著的營運槓桿。因此，在過去幾年中，員工人數複合年增長率為 8%，而 IFP 同期複合年增長率為 40%。因此，您可以看到 8% 的員工費用或薪資費用與 40% 的收入之間存在巨大差異。

I think that speaks volumes about the financial benefits that we've realized and continue to realize. In fact, our payroll expense was down in 2023 year on year, even though our business grew at 20%. Again, I think very strong indicators that you're looking for. Giving a little bit more context and color, when we think about the scalability of our employee base, we tend to think about it as split. Roughly half our employees are what we think of as a variable cost.

我認為這充分說明了我們已經實現並繼續實現的經濟效益。事實上，儘管我們的業務成長了 20%，但 2023 年我們的薪資支出卻比去年同期下降。再說一遍，我認為您正在尋找非常強大的指標。提供更多的背景和色彩，當我們考慮員工基礎的可擴展性時，我們傾向於將其視為分裂。我們大約有一半的員工屬於我們所認為的變動成本。

So those are the customer-facing teams, the customer support, the claims that you would typically expect to grow more or less in line with customer growth, twice as many customers will usually mean twice as many customer support queries and twice as many claims. So that would naturally, all else being equal, grow more or less in a linear fashion. And then there's everything else, the engineering, the finance, the legal, etc., where you wouldn't have that expectation.

因此，這些是面向客戶的團隊、客戶支援、您通常期望或多或少與客戶成長保持一致的索賠，兩倍的客戶通常意味著兩倍的客戶支援查詢和兩倍的索賠。因此，在其他條件相同的情況下，自然會或多或少地以線性方式增長。然後還有其他一切，工程、財務、法律等，你不會有這樣的期望。

The really outstanding historical operating leverage that I've mentioned just now was really delivered both by an ever-improving, pretty dramatic improvement in automation rate, placing very significant downward pressure on the growth of variable headcount, plus a lot of smart expense management and targeted automation initiatives that keep the rest of the organization more or less in a stable size -- marketing and other teams that are using generative AI, coding teams that are using generative AI, et cetera.

我剛才提到的真正出色的歷史營運槓桿實際上是透過自動化率的不斷改進、相當顯著的提高來實現的，這對可變員工數量的增長施加了非常顯著的下行壓力，再加上大量的智慧費用管理和有針對性的自動化計劃，使組織的其他部分或多或少保持穩定的規模——使用生成式人工智慧的營銷和其他團隊、使用生成式人工智慧的編碼團隊等等。

Just two months ago, we referenced the fact that some of our brand new generative AI tools were handling 7% of incoming customer service emails. To be clear, that's distinct from the roughly third of in-app interactions that Maya handles unaided.

就在兩個月前，我們提到了這樣一個事實：我們的一些全新的生成式人工智慧工具正在處理 7% 的傳入客戶服務電子郵件。需要明確的是，這與 Maya 獨立處理的大約三分之一的應用程式內互動不同。

E-mails are much harder. They usually come without context. You don't necessarily know which customer you're talking to, which policies they have, unlike the app where all the context is already there. So that's been a harder nut to crack.

電子郵件要困難得多。它們通常沒有上下文。您不一定知道您正在與哪個客戶交談，他們有哪些政策，這與所有上下文都已存在的應用程式不同。所以這是一個更難解決的問題。

At any rate, I'm happy to report that just one quarter later, that 7% has pretty much tripled. It's roughly 20% as of now. So we're seeing a very notable acceleration. You can see the trajectory that's on.

無論如何，我很高興地報告說，僅僅一個季度後，7% 就幾乎增加了兩倍。目前大約是20%。所以我們看到了非常顯著的加速。你可以看到它的軌跡。

And we think of what we've done so far as really just the early innings, the tip of the iceberg, or whatever other metaphor you want. We see no reason why we can't ultimately automate the overwhelming majority of our customer interactions and to deliver them as we do today with at least the level of customer satisfaction as we generate by human interaction. So we're seeing very similar levels of a net promoter score and CSAT and other indicators.

我們認為到目前為止我們所做的實際上只是前幾局，冰山一角，或任何你想要的其他比喻。我們認為我們沒有理由不能最終實現絕大多數客戶交互的自動化，並像我們今天所做的那樣提供這些交互，並至少達到我們透過人工交互產生的客戶滿意度水平。因此，我們看到淨推薦值和 CSAT 以及其他指標的水平非常相似。

Shifting to look forward to kind of how far can this go. Well, in terms of our fixed teams, if you like, what I was referring to as engineering and financing and marketing and others, we do think that that is massively scalable. We think we've got very strong teams, well-staffed.

轉而期待這能走多遠。好吧，就我們的固定團隊而言，如果你願意的話，我所說的工程、融資、行銷等，我們確實認為這是可大規模擴展的。我們認為我們擁有非常強大的團隊，人員配備齊全。

And conceptually, we could double and triple and, perhaps, even 10x our business without seeing any significant growth in those teams. As we choose to launch new markets and new products, we may have to introduce a bit more headcount. But I think even then, what I said is broadly true. We are pretty much staffed to the levels that we see ourselves needing in those departments for the foreseeable future.

從概念上講，我們的業務可以增加兩倍、三倍，甚至十倍，但這些團隊卻沒有任何顯著成長。當我們選擇推出新市場和新產品時，我們可能需要引入更多的員工人數。但我認為即使如此，我所說的基本上也是正確的。在可預見的未來，我們的人員配置基本上達到了這些部門所需的水準。

In terms of the variable, we do expect to have to grow those teams as we grow. But given the massive automation drive, the generative AI and other tools, we do think that this divergence will continue, our top line will grow significantly faster, and that the growth of these teams will be a fraction of the book's growth rate. And that's really where the scalability in the financial results come from.

就變數而言，我們確實希望隨著我們的成長而壯大這些團隊。但考慮到大規模的自動化驅動、生成式人工智慧和其他工具，我們確實認為這種分歧將持續下去，我們的收入成長將顯著加快，而這些團隊的成長將只是本書成長率的一小部分。這確實是財務表現可擴展性的來源。

So in summary, as all of these anecdotes that I said or statistics or historical successes that we've had, all of those are indicators of the operating leverage, how much it's been a focus and will continue to be, and how the sustained scalability of our team is a key driver for how we're focusing on our business. And ultimately, it is that that will deliver the EBITDA breakeven point that we've been speaking about in 2026. As we continue to grow our denominator, holding the numerator as close to steady as possible is really the key there, and we think we're doing exactly that.

總而言之，正如我所說的所有這些軼事或統計數據或我們所取得的歷史成功一樣，所有這些都是運營槓桿的指標，它已經成為並將繼續成為焦點，以及持續的可擴展性如何我們團隊的成員是我們專注於業務的關鍵驅動力。最終，這將在 2026 年實現我們一直在談論的 EBITDA 損益平衡點。隨著我們繼續增加分母，保持分子盡可能接近穩定確實是關鍵，我們認為我們正在這樣做。

Okay. The next question comes from both Darren and paper bag, pretty much the same question. They asked about how things are going with Chewy. So talking about our own results in some detail is something we are very comfortable doing. We are far more cautious about disclosing partners' results.

好的。下一個問題來自達倫和紙袋，幾乎是同一個問題。他們詢問 Chewy 的情況怎麼樣。因此，我們很樂意詳細地談論我們自己的結果。我們對於揭露合作夥伴的結果要謹慎得多。

They have not made these numbers public, so we're also going to be circumspect. I will say that we are thrilled by our nationwide launch and by the collaboration between the companies. It's very much expanded our reach. We remain very bullish about our ability to continue to leverage that platform.

他們尚未公開這些數字，因此我們也會謹慎行事。我想說的是，我們對我們在全國範圍內的推出以及公司之間的合作感到興奮。它極大地擴大了我們的影響範圍。我們仍然非常看好我們繼續利用該平台的能力。

And I will also say that the results have so far been broadly aligned with the modeling that we and our partner, Chewy, had done. So without getting too specific, this is pretty much in line, broad strokes, with what we had planned.

我還要說的是，到目前為止，結果與我們和我們的合作夥伴 Chewy 所做的建模大致一致。因此，無需太具體，這與我們的計劃基本一致。

So beyond the quantity, I also share that the quality of the book has been very good, really on par with our own book in terms of premiums, in terms of retention, loss rates, bundle rates, et cetera. So all of this reinforces our aspirations for this partnership going forward.

因此，除了數量之外，我還分享這本書的品質非常好，在溢價、保留率、丟失率、捆綁率等方面確實與我們自己的書相當。因此，所有這些都增強了我們對這種夥伴關係向前發展的渴望。

Finally, paper bag, who got a duopoly of questioners today. So paper bag asks the following. In Q2 2022, 21% of non-car sales were cross-sells or up-sells. In Illinois, with car, it reached 36%. What's the current cross-sell up-sell rate with car and without? Also, at Investor Day, 3.7% of US customers were multiline. What's the current percentage?

最後，紙袋今天得到了雙頭壟斷的提問者。所以紙袋提出以下問題。2022 年第二季度，21% 的非汽車銷售是交叉銷售或追加銷售。在伊利諾州，擁有汽車的比例達到了 36%。目前帶汽車和不帶汽車的交叉銷售追加銷售率是多少？此外，在投資者日，3.7% 的美國客戶採用多線方式。目前的百分比是多少？

Okay. Great, focused questions. Let me try and address them. So I'm happy to report that all the metrics that you referenced are up since the numbers that you gave in your questions. They've all improved.

好的。很好的、有針對性的問題。讓我嘗試解決這些問題。因此，我很高興地向您報告，自從您在問題中提供的數字以來，您引用的所有指標均有所上升。他們都進步了。

Over the course of 2023, in the past year, about 25% of our non-car sales were cross sales. So in all of our other products combined, about a quarter of the sales came from existing customers. If I include car, then we get closer to 30% on a nationwide basis, even though car is not available in all that many states. On a nationwide basis, we're at 30%.

2023年，在過去的一年裡，我們的非汽車銷售中約有25%是交叉銷售。因此，在我們所有其他產品中，大約四分之一的銷售額來自現有客戶。如果我包括汽車，那麼全國範圍內的比例將接近 30%，儘管並非所有州都提供汽車。在全國範圍內，我們的比例是 30%。

I'm all told today about 4.5% of our customers have more than one product, and that's up about 20% or by a fifth from the number that you quoted from my Investor Day. It's important to note that in Illinois, we have continued to see good progress. So we talk about Illinois because it's the first state where all of our products were available. So it's a great kind of indicator of where this might go on a nationwide basis. At any rate, Illinois has more than 9% of customers.

今天我聽說大約 4.5% 的客戶擁有不只一種產品，這比您在投資者日引用的數字增加了約 20% 或五分之一。值得注意的是，在伊利諾伊州，我們繼續看到良好的進展。所以我們談論伊利諾伊州，因為它是第一個提供我們所有產品的州。因此，這是一個很好的指標，表明這在全國範圍內可能會走向何方。無論如何，伊利諾伊州擁有超過 9% 的客戶。

Customers have been with us a couple of years, two years or more. Not more than 9%, almost 10% of them have more than one product. That's twice the average that we have elsewhere. So it will take time for us to grow a multi-line customer across the entire book, but that might be an indicator of where we might go over the course of the next couple of years in places where we have all the products.

客戶已經與我們合作了幾年、兩年或更長時間。不超過9%，幾乎10%的人擁有不只一種產品。這是我們其他地方平均值的兩倍。因此，我們需要時間來在整本書中發展多線客戶，但這可能是我們在未來幾年中在擁有所有產品的地方可能走向的指標。

We do need to allow the books to mature. We do need to continue to expand product availability nationwide, but that gives you some indication.

我們確實需要讓書籍成熟。我們確實需要繼續在全國範圍內擴大產品供應，但這給了你一些指示。

In the near term, this year, our focus in growth will be more on pet and renters than on car and home owners. I mentioned cars percentages in an earlier question. Excuse me. So we'll see the customer growth come mainly from pet and renters rather than from the other products, and that won't be a huge boon to the numbers they're asking about in terms of multi-line customers. But as car gets to profitability in different states and as we lean into that, as we've indicated probably later this year and into next year, then we would expect that to also have a pretty significant effect on the multi-line customer numbers in 2025 and beyond.

從短期來看，今年我們的成長重點將更多放在寵物和租屋者身上，而不是汽車和房主身上。我在之前的問題中提到了汽車百分比。打擾一下。因此，我們將看到客戶成長主要來自寵物和租賃者，而不是其他產品，這對他們詢問的多線客戶數量來說不會是一個巨大的福音。但是，隨著汽車在不同州實現盈利，並且隨著我們傾向於這一點，正如我們可能在今年晚些時候和明年表示的那樣，我們預計這也會對各州的多線客戶數量產生相當大的影響 2025 年及以後。

And with that I'll hand the call back to the operator to take some questions from our friends on Wall Street.

然後我會將電話轉給接線員，回答我們華爾街朋友的一些問題。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Jason Hilton, Oppenheimer.

謝謝。（操作員說明）賈森·希爾頓，奧本海默。

Thanks. Two questions. Just the first, you talked in the release about using AI with third-party agents. Is this going to be something that will be financially material in '24 or it's really more of a test and then it becomes more material in '25 and beyond? And the second question, you talked about shifting away -- the mix shifted away from home. How much is that due to learnings from the newest LTV model as opposed to just it's taking longer to get rate increases in certain states? Thank you.

謝謝。兩個問題。首先，您在新聞稿中談到了將人工智慧與第三方代理結合使用。這是否會在 24 年成為經濟上重要的事情，或者它實際上更像是一個測試，然後在 25 年及以後變得更加重要？第二個問題，你談到了搬離──混合離開了家鄉。這在多大程度上是由於從最新的 LTV 模型中學到的經驗，而不是僅僅在某些州需要更長的時間才能提高利率？謝謝。

Hey, Jason. Good morning. I'm not exactly sure what you mean by that first question. We didn't mention about AI third-party agents. What we did said -- I'm not sure if this is what you're asking about, but we said that within home, which touches on your second question, we will be testing selling third-party policies in states where we don't currently offer home. Is that what you were asking about?

嘿，傑森。早安.我不太清楚你的第一個問題是什麼意思。我們沒有提到人工智慧第三方代理。我們所說的——我不確定這是否是您所問的問題，但我們表示，在國內，這涉及您的第二個問題，我們將在不銷售第三方保單的州測試銷售第三方保單。目前提供房屋。這就是你問的嗎？

Yeah. So yeah, that's what I was referring to, sorry.

是的。是的，這就是我指的，抱歉。

Okay. So can you just refine what that first question was regarding that?

好的。那麼您能否完善第一個問題的相關內容？

Yeah. So is that something that could move the needle in '24 or that like more of a test and if it works we'll see the impact in '25?

是的。那麼，這是否會在 24 年起到推動作用，或者更像是一次測試，如果有效，我們將在 25 年看到影響？

Got it. The latter. I mean, these things can take off and move quickly, but it is a test. It will be rolling out just in a few states, and it won't be rolling out until next quarter. So I would not expect it to have a significant impact this year. It's certainly not baked into the numbers that we have provided in our guidance. It's a test that could go well. It's the kind of thing that we've done episodically all along.

知道了。後者。我的意思是，這些東西可以起飛並快速移動，但這是一個考驗。它將僅在幾個州推出，並且要到下個季度才會推出。所以我預計今年不會有重大影響。它當然沒有被納入我們在指南中提供的數字中。這是一個可以順利進行的測試。這是我們一直時不時會做的事情。

So earthquake insurance has worked this way. Our term life insurance has worked this way. And in areas where we haven't yet got rate adequacy or other things we're going to test having these alternatives that we can offer to our customers in order to capture a lot of the pent-up demands that we are seeing.

所以地震保險就是這樣發揮作用的。我們的定期壽險就是這樣運作的。在我們尚未獲得足夠的費率或其他方面的領域，我們將測試我們可以向客戶提供的這些替代方案，以便捕捉我們所看到的大量被壓抑的需求。

And that ties into your second question about rate adequacy from home. So we do find or have found that it's taken quite a long time to get to rate adequacy in many states. This is not just about LTV 9 coming through that has allowed us to refine, as it does with every generation, to understand with ever greater nuance exactly where and which customers and lifetime values.

這與你關於在家的利率充足性的第二個問題有關。因此，我們確實發現或已經發現，在許多州需要相當長的時間才能評估充分性。這不僅僅是 LTV 9 的出現，它使我們能夠像每一代人一樣進行改進，以更細微的差別準確地了解客戶和終身價值的具體位置和內容。

But frankly, the issues with homeowners insurance in states like California have been so broad-based industry-wide as we reference the largest insurance companies in the nation pulling out of the state. So there have been much larger forces at play, secular shifts, which we've been responding to. And our tools of precision and LTV are doing a fabulous job. But if regulators aren't approving rates that are reflective of those AI insights, then we're not going to sell insurance in those markets until they do.

但坦白說，像加州這樣的州的房屋保險問題在整個行業範圍內都很廣泛，因為我們提到美國最大的保險公司都撤離了該州。因此，有更大的力量在起作用，即長期的轉變，我們一直在對此做出反應。我們的精確度和生命週期價值工具做得非常好。但如果監管機構不批准反映這些人工智慧見解的費率，那麼在他們批准之前我們不會在這些市場上銷售保險。

And we're just seeing a time lag, so I think we have a very good understanding of which customers we want, how to select for them, how to price for them. We're waiting for those rates to come online so that we can do exactly that.

我們只是看到了時間滯後，所以我認為我們非常了解我們想要哪些客戶、如何為他們選擇、如何為他們定價。我們正在等待這些費率上線，以便我們能夠做到這一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

謝謝。（操作員說明）Yaron Kinar，Jefferies。

Thank you, and good morning, everybody. My first question, Tim, it was helpful to hear the updates on the loss ratio progression by line. Can you maybe be a little more specific there? I think you gave a range of 9 to 18 point improvement across each of the lines, but can maybe give us a little more color onto which lines are improving by how much, and if possible, even without catastrophes?

謝謝大家，大家早安。我的第一個問題，提姆，聽到按行損失率進展的更新很有幫助。能說得更具體一點嗎？我認為你對每條線都給出了 9 到 18 點的改進，但也許可以給我們更多的信息，告訴我們哪些線改進了多少，如果可能的話，即使沒有災難？

So we haven't been disclosing exact loss ratios every quarter, but wanted to give to some color commentary, significant improvement across all the lines. I would say that car showed the most significant improvement, so it was at the upper end of that range; and obviously, no material CAT impact there. Typically, it's not affecting the number at the lower end of the range, renter, home and pet. And Home tends to be the one where the CAT impact is most significant.

因此，我們並沒有透露每季的確切損失率，但希望提供一些色彩評論，在所有方面都有顯著改善。我想說這輛車錶現出了最顯著的改進，所以它處於該範圍的上限；顯然，CAT 沒有產生重大影響。通常，它不會影響範圍低端的數量、租戶、房屋和寵物。家庭往往是 CAT 影響最顯著的地方。

So good progress across the board, 9% to 18%. We'll continue to give that sort of color commentary where it's helpful, but it's not something we disclose specific numbers every single quarter.

全面進步，9% 到 18%。我們將繼續提供有用的顏色評論，但這不是我們每季都會揭露具體數字的內容。

Okay. Thanks. And then I just want to make sure I'm thinking about this strategically correctly, the homeowner's business. So maybe a little less of an appetite to grow there right now while rates are not quite adequate in all states, but you are still committed to growing in home over time on your own balance sheet in the US. Is that correct?

好的。謝謝。然後我只是想確保我在戰略上正確地考慮了房主的事。因此，雖然所有州的利率都不夠充分，但現在在國內增長的興趣可能會減弱，但隨著時間的推移，您仍然致力於在美國自己的資產負債表上實現國內增長。那是對的嗎？

That is. Hi, Yaron. Good morning. Yes. We are seeing significant progress in our homeowners business. As Tim indicated, rate adequacy, as you know, has been a challenge for the industry. So in the meantime -- I say in the meantime, but there will always be certain business that we don't want to underwrite ourselves. We'll have our own underwriting appetite. We do have our own underwriting appetite. And even in places where we are very profitable, particularly in those, there's always the risk of getting over-indexed on those regions.

那是。嗨，亞龍。早安.是的。我們看到房主業務取得了重大進展。正如蒂姆所指出的，如您所知，利率充足性一直是該行業面臨的挑戰。所以同時──我說的是同時，但總會有某些業務我們不想自己承保。我們將有自己的承保胃口。我們確實有自己的承保胃口。即使在我們利潤很高的地方，特別是那些地方，總是存在著在這些地區過度指數化的風險。

And therefore, having an avenue through which when we reach our appetite limits that we can continue to satisfy customer needs, either by writing our own paper or elsewhere, is something that just makes a lot of solid sense and, as you know, is widely done throughout the industry. So this is not a substitute for us doing our own. It is an augmentation that we're testing at this point.

因此，當我們達到我們的胃口極限時，我們可以透過撰寫自己的論文或其他方式繼續滿足客戶的需求，這是非常有意義的，並且如您所知，被廣泛採用。整個行業都在做。所以這並不能取代我們自己做。這是我們目前正在測試的增強功能。

Got it. And then one final one, if I may, on AI. So I've seen some press recently about states that may be scrutinizing the use of AI in insurance a bit more carefully, both on the claims side and the underwriting side, I think even the customer acquisition side, and just looking at trying to avoid any discriminatory practices that could arise there or seemingly discriminatory practices. Can you maybe talk about what you're seeing there, how you avoid maybe these pitfalls, and how much buying you're getting from the regulators?

知道了。如果可以的話，最後一篇是關於人工智慧的。因此，我最近看到一些關於各州可能會更仔細地審查人工智慧在保險中的使用的報道，無論是在索賠方面還是在承保方面，我認為甚至在客戶獲取方面，並且只是試圖避免那裡可能出現的任何歧視性做法或看似歧視性的做法。您能否談談您在那裡看到的情況，如何避免這些陷阱，以及您從監管機構那裡得到了多少購買？

Yeah, with pleasure. It's a great question. And we are seeing some of that in the US. Europe is perhaps a step ahead in this regard in passing AI-related regulation. And I think it's fair to say that we've been pushing and encouraging and working with regulators on this from the get-go.

是的，很高興。這是一個很好的問題。我們在美國看到了其中的一些情況。歐洲在透過人工智慧相關監管方面可能領先一步。我認為可以公平地說，我們從一開始就一直在推動、鼓勵並與監管機構合作。

We've had, for some years now, an AI fairness officer, an AI ethicist. We have our data science teams trained on these matters. We've got fairly strict protocols. The

多年來，我們一直有一位人工智慧公平官、一位人工智慧倫理學家。我們的數據科學團隊接受過這些問題的訓練。我們有相當嚴格的協議。這

old adage about great power requiring great responsibility I think holds true. And if we are, as we claim to be, at the cutting edge of bringing an AI to insurance, we also have to be thoughtful about all of those risks that come with it as well.

我認為關於強大的力量需要巨大的責任的古老格言是正確的。如果我們像我們聲稱的那樣，處於將人工智慧引入保險領域的最前沿，那麼我們也必須考慮隨之而來的所有風險。

We're quite sure that when it's applied responsibly, the benefits dramatically outweigh the risks, but the risks are not to be ignored. So yes, we do work with regulators on these things. We feel quite comfortable that we are not only within regulation, but, in large measure, setting the standards for how this can be done responsibly, how this can be tested on a nationwide basis, on a per model basis, on a per customer basis.

我們非常確定，如果負責任地應用它，好處將大大超過風險，但風險也不容忽視。所以，是的，我們確實在這些事情上與監管機構合作。我們感到非常放心，我們不僅在監管範圍內，而且在很大程度上，為如何負責任地做到這一點設定了標準，如何在全國範圍內、每個型號、每個客戶的基礎上進行測試。

So yeah, I think we're feeling pretty comfortable with that and continue to monitor this space. We recently created an InsurTech coalition that is working with regulators in order to set the tone and help regulators understand these issues. So yeah, an area of significant focus.

所以，是的，我認為我們對此感到非常滿意，並將繼續監控這個領域。我們最近創建了一個保險科技聯盟，該聯盟正在與監管機構合作，以定下基調並幫助監管機構了解這些問題。是的，這是一個重點關注的領域。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This is all the time we have for questions today. So that will conclude today's call. Thank you everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines and have a lovely day.

謝謝。這是我們今天所有的提問時間。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。