Lemonade Inc (LMND) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome, everyone, to the Lemonade Q2 2024 earnings call. My name is Maxine, and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand you over to Yael Wissner-Levy, VP Communications at Lemonade's [begin]. Yael please go ahead, when you are ready.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫瑪克辛，今天我將負責協調這通電話。（操作說明）現在我將把發言權交給 Lemonade 公司的通訊副總裁 Yael Wissner-Levy。[開始]。Yael，準備好了就請開始吧。

Good morning and welcome to Lemonade second quarter 2024 earnings call. My name is Yael Wissner-Levy, and I'm the VP Communications at Lemonade. Joining me today to discuss our results are Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, our President and Co-Founder; and Tim Bixby, our Chief Financial Officer.

早上好，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫 Yael Wissner-Levy，我是 Lemonade 的傳播副總裁。今天與我一起討論我們業績的有：執行長兼聯合創始人丹尼爾·施賴伯；總裁兼聯合創始人沙伊·維寧格；以及首席財務官蒂姆·比克斯比。

A letter to shareholders covering the company's second quarter 2024 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website, investor.lemonade.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that management's remarks on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

本公司致股東信函涵蓋了公司2024年第二季的財務業績，該信函已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站investor.lemonade.com上。在正式開始之前，我想提醒各位，管理階層在本次電話會議上的發言可能包含1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所界定的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the risk factors section of our 2023 Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on May 1, 2024 and our other filings with the SEC.

由於各種重要因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明所指出的結果有重大差異，這些因素包括我們在 2024 年 5 月 1 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 2023 年 10-Q 表格的風險因素部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的因素。

Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures in today's call, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance.

本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今日的觀點，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。在今天的電話會議中，我們將提及一些非GAAP財務指標，例如調整後的EBITDA和調整後的毛利，我們認為這些指標對於投資人評估我們的經營績效可能很重要。

Reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most direct comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders. Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including customers, in-force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex-CAT and net loss ratio. And a definition of each metric why each is useful to investors and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

我們在致股東的信中列出了這些非GAAP財務指標與最直接可比較的GAAP財務指標的調節表。我們致股東的信函還包括有關我們關鍵績效指標的信息，包括客戶數量、有效保費、每位客戶的保費、年度美元留存率、毛已賺保費、毛賠付率、除巨災外的毛賠付率和淨賠付率。對每項指標進行定義，說明每項指標對投資者的用途，以及我們如何利用每項指標來監控和管理我們的業務。

I'd also like to bring your attention to our upcoming Investor Day to be held on November 19, 2024 in New York City. We will be providing detailed updates on our strategic expansion plans, operating efficiencies, and growth trajectory. Hope to see you there.

我還想提請各位注意我們即將於 2024 年 11 月 19 日在紐約市舉行的投資者日活動。我們將提供有關策略擴張計劃、營運效率和成長軌蹟的詳細最新資訊。希望在那裡見到你。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks. Daniel?

接下來，我會把電話交給丹尼爾，請他做些開場白。丹尼爾？

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Lemonade results for Q2 2024. I'm happy to report continued consistent and strong progress across the board. Year-on-year top line grew 22%, adjusted EBITDA loss improved by 18% and our gross profit grew by a remarkable 155%.

早安，感謝各位參加本次關於 Lemonade 2024 年第二季業績的討論會。我很高興地報告，各方面都持續取得了穩定而強勁的進展。營收年增 22%，調整後 EBITDA 虧損改善 18%，毛利更是實現了驚人的 155% 的成長。

Despite a quarter that saw elevated CAT losses across the industry, our loss ratio came in at 79%, improving 15 points year-on-year. This is no accident.

儘管本季整個產業的巨災損失有所增加，但我們的損失率為 79%，年減了 15 個百分點。這絕非偶然。

We have been laser focused on reducing CAT volatility by growing products with lower CAT exposure, notably pet and renters geographic diversification of growth, including via Europe, where we recently launched homeowners insurance in the UK and France, continuing to sell Lemonade homeowners insurance in the US, only where our AI predicts attractive LTVs and simultaneously placing some home premiums with third parties in select geographies.

我們一直專注於透過發展巨災風險敞口較低的產品來降低巨災波動性，特別是寵物和租屋者保險，並實現地域多元化成長，包括透過歐洲，我們最近在英國和法國推出了房主保險，繼續在美國銷售 Lemonade 房主保險，但僅限於我們的人工智慧預測具有吸引力的貸款價值比 (LTV) 的地區，同時在特定地區給第三方。

Tellingly, trailing 12 month gross loss ratio continued to decline for the fourth consecutive quarter, also hitting 79%. We think this number in preference to the quarterly results, neutralizes some of the volatility and provides a more bankable indication of our ongoing performance.

值得注意的是，過去 12 個月的毛虧損率連續第四個季度持續下降，也達到了 79%。我們認為，與季度業績相比，這個數字可以消除一些波動性，並能更可靠地反映我們持續的業績表現。

But whatever your preferred metric is the picture that emerges is the same. Great progress that enables us to deliver, notably expanded gross margins. I'm also pleased to share that Q2 was net cash flow positive. We expect cash flow to be positive consistently here on out excepting only Q4 this year, where various timing issues will make that quarter a one-off exception.

但無論你偏好哪一種衡量標準，最終呈現出來的結果都是一樣的。取得了巨大進步，使我們能夠實現交付目標，尤其實現了毛利率的提高。我很高興地告訴大家，第二季淨現金流為正。我們預計，除今年第四季外，現金流將持續為正，因為各種時間因素將使該季度成為一個特殊季度。

In any event we don't expect our cash balances to decline by more than one or maybe 2% before climbing consistently. With these updates, we feel exceedingly well positioned to continue investing in robust and profitable growth.

無論如何，我們預計現金餘額在持續成長之前，降幅不會超過 1% 或 2%。有了這些更新，我們感覺自己處於非常有利的地位，可以繼續投資於強勁且有利可圖的成長。

I also wanted to put a spotlight on our giveback program for a moment. A couple of weeks ago, we announced our contribution of more than $2 million to $43 million nonprofits around the globe, our eighth consecutive year of giving back to dozens of local and global charities chosen by our customers.

我還想簡單介紹一下我們的回饋社會計畫。幾週前，我們宣布向全球 4,300 萬美元的非營利組織捐贈超過 200 萬美元，這是我們連續第八年回饋客戶選擇的數十家本地和全球慈善機構。

Social impacts as a core pillar of who we are at Lemonade, a contribution since inception now exceeds $10 million and this program reflects the collective power of the Lemonade community and its ability to drive meaningful change. But something we're very proud of and we know this is only the beginning.

社會影響力是我們 Lemonade 的核心支柱之一，自成立以來，我們已貢獻超過 1000 萬美元，該計畫體現了 Lemonade 社區的集體力量及其推動有意義變革的能力。但這是我們非常引以為傲的一點，我們也知道這只是個開始。

Next, I'd like to hand over to Shai to tell you more about our recent efficiency improvements unlocked by our technology. Shai?

接下來，我想把麥克風交給 Shai，讓他來詳細介紹我們最近透過科技實現的效率提升。沙伊？

Thanks, Daniel. On the expense side, we've continued to deliver on our autonomous organization vision with remarkable stability. Our operating expense base, excluding gross spend, which is now financed via the synthetic agent's program was unchanged year over year. This underscores the scalability of our tech vision, which leads to measurable efficiency in our operations.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。在支出方面，我們持續以卓越的穩定性實現自主組織願景。我們的營運費用基數（不包括總支出，現在透過合成代理計劃進行融資）與前一年相比沒有變化。這凸顯了我們技術願景的可擴展性，從而提高了我們營運的效率。

This dynamic we're witnessing robust, predictable IFP growth, alongside an expense base that remains comparatively steady and even shrinks at times isn't a short-term anomaly. We expect this trend to persist in the coming quarters and years as we approach sustainable profitability at scale. This trajectory is a testament of the power of our technology first approach and our commitment to operational excellence.

我們看到的這種動態——IFP 強勁、可預測的成長，以及相對穩定的支出基礎，甚至有時還會下降——並不是短期異常現象。我們預計，隨著我們逐步實現規模化的可持續獲利，這一趨勢將在未來幾季和幾年內持續下去。這一發展軌跡證明了我們以技術為先導的方法的力量以及我們對卓越營運的承諾。

Investors and analysts often ask about the practical impact of our investments in building our own tech based insurance tech. I believe our recent quarterly results clearly demonstrate that, with large part of our business running on code rather than people. I believe our tech obsession is paying off in a big way and help separate us from incumbents, in visible, measurable and impactful ways.

投資者和分析師經常詢問我們在建立我們自己的基於技術的保險技術方面的投資會產生哪些實際影響。我認為我們最近的季度業績清楚地表明了這一點，因為我們的大部分業務都是依靠程式碼而不是人來運作的。我相信我們對科技的執著正在取得巨大的回報，並以可見、可衡量和有影響力的方式幫助我們與現有企業拉開差距。

What we've achieved so far is just the beginning, our team has been hard at work on our next-generation technology platform, code-named L2, which is designed to bring step-change improvements to areas such as underwriting, insurance, operations, compliance and product development.

我們目前所取得的成就只是個開始，我們的團隊一直在努力開發代號為 L2 的下一代技術平台，該平台旨在為核保、保險、營運、合規和產品開發等領域帶來變革性的改進。

with L2, we anticipate additional efficiency gains alongside acceleration of our product operations. These improvements should position us to adapt quickly to market changes as well as capitalize on new opportunities, products, markets and even business models.

我們預計，透過 L2 技術，在加快產品營運的同時，還能進一步提高效率。這些改進將使我們能夠快速適應市場變化，並抓住新的機會、產品、市場，甚至是商業模式。

The potential impact of L2 extends beyond mere cost savings. It's about reimagining how insurance companies should operate in the AI era. We look forward to sharing more about all this at our Investor Day, November 19, in New York City.

L2 的潛在影響不僅限於節省成本。它關乎重新構想保險公司在人工智慧時代該如何運作。我們期待在11月19日於紐約市舉行的投資者日上與大家分享更多相關資訊。

And with that, let me hand it over to Tim to cover our financial results.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給提姆，讓他來介紹我們的財務表現。

And outlook in greater detail. Tim?

以及更詳細的展望。提姆？

Great. Thanks, Shai. I'll review highlights of our Q2 results and provide our expectations for Q3 and the full year and then we'll take some questions. Overall, it was again a terrific quarter with results very much in line with or better than expectations and continued notable loss ratio improvement across the board.

偉大的。謝謝你，莎伊。我將回顧我們第二季業績的亮點，並提出我們對第三季和全年的預期，然後我們將回答一些問題。整體而言，本季業績依然非常出色，完全符合預期甚至超出預期，各項損失率均持續顯著改善。

In force premium grew 22% to $839 million, while customer count increased by 14% to $2.2 million. Premium per customer increased 8% versus the prior year to $387, driven primarily by rate increases. Annual dollar retention or ADR was 88%, up 1-percentage-point since this time last year.

有效保費增加了 22%，達到 8.39 億美元，而客戶數量增加了 14%，達到 220 萬。每位客戶的保費較上年增長 8%，達到 387 美元，主要原因是費率上漲。年度美元留存率（ADR）為 88%，比去年同期成長 1 個百分點。

Gross earned premium in Q2 increased 22% as compared to the prior year to the $200 million in line with IFP growth. Our revenue in Q2 increased 17% from the prior year to $122 million. The growth in revenue was driven by the increase in gross earned premium, a slightly higher effective ceding commission rate under our quota share reinsurance as well as a 45% increase in investment income.

第二季毛已賺保費較上年同期成長 22%，達到 2 億美元，與 IFP 的成長一致。第二季我們的營收比去年同期成長了17%，達到1.22億美元。收入成長主要得益於毛已賺保費的增加、按比例分保再保險計算的有效分出佣金率略有提高，以及投資收益增長了 45%。

Our gross loss ratio was 79% for Q2 as compared to 94% in Q2 2023 and 79% in Q1 2024. The impact of CATs in Q2 was roughly 17-percentage-points within the gross loss ratio, nearly all driven by convective storm and winter storm activity.

第二季我們的毛賠率為 79%，而 2023 年第二季為 94%，2024 年第一季為 79%。第二季 CAT 的影響在總損失率中約為 17 個百分點，幾乎全部是由對流風暴和冬季風暴活動造成的。

Absent this total CAT impact, the underlying gross loss ratio ex-CAT was 62% in line with the prior quarter and fully 10-percentage-points better than the prior year. Prior-period development had a roughly 3% favorable impact on gross loss ratio in the quarter. Notably, the CAT prior-period development was about 2% unfavorable, well, non-CAT was about 5% favorable netting out to the 3% favorable impact.

如果不計入巨災影響，基本毛賠付率（不含巨災影響）為 62%，與上一季持平，比去年同期改善了 10 個百分點。前期發展對本季毛損失率產生了約 3% 的有利影響。值得注意的是，CAT 前期發展約有 2% 的不利影響，而非 CAT 則有約 5% 的有利影響，兩者相抵後產生了 3% 的有利影響。

Trailing 12 months or TTM loss ratio was about 79% or 12 points better year on year and 4 points better sequentially. From a product perspective, gross loss ratio improved, notably for all products with year-on-year improvements ranging from five 30%.

過去 12 個月（TTM）的損失率約為 79%，較去年同期下降 12 個百分點，季減 4 個百分點。從產品角度來看，毛損率有所改善，所有產品的毛損率均較上年同期有所改善，改善幅度在 5% 至 30% 之間。

Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense increased 13% to $107 million in Q2 as compared to the prior year. The increase of $12 million year-on-year was driven predominantly by an increase in gross acquisition spending within sales and marketing expenses.

第二季營運費用（不包括損失和損失調整費用）比上年同期成長 13%，達到 1.07 億美元。年比成長 1200 萬美元，主要原因是銷售和行銷費用中的客戶獲取總支出增加。

Other insurance expense grew 25% in Q2 versus the prior year, in line with the growth of earned premium primarily in support of our increased investment in rate filing capacity.

第二季其他保險支出較上年同期成長 25%，與已賺保費的成長基本一致，主要原因是支持我們增加對費率備案能力的投資。

Total sales and marketing expense increased by $12 million as noted, or 48%, primarily due to the increased gross spend, partially offset by lower personnel-related costs driven by efficiency gains. Total gross spend in the quarter was about $26 million, roughly double the $13 million figure in the prior year.

如前所述，銷售和行銷總費用增加了 1,200 萬美元，增幅達 48%，主要原因是總支出增加，部分被效率提高帶來的人員相關成本降低所抵銷。本季總支出約 2,600 萬美元，約為去年同期 1,300 萬美元的兩倍。

We continue to utilize our synthetic agent growth funding program and have financed 80% of our gross spend since the start of the year. As a reminder, you'll see 100% of our gross spend flow through the P&L as always, while the impact of the new growth mechanism of synthetic agents is visible on the cash flow statement and balance sheet. And the net financing to date under this agreement is about $44 million as of June 30.

我們繼續利用合成製劑成長資金計劃，自年初以來已為我們總支出的 80% 提供資金。再次提醒，您將像往常一樣在損益表中看到我們 100% 的總支出，而合成代理這種新增長機制的影響則會在現金流量表和資產負債表中反映出來。截至 6 月 30 日，根據該協議迄今為止的淨融資額約為 4,400 萬美元。

Technology development expense declined 12% year-on-year to $21 million due primarily to personnel cost efficiencies, while G&A expense also declined 3% as compared to the prior year to $30 million, primarily due to both lower personnel and insurance expenses.

由於人員成本效率提高，技術開發費用年減 12% 至 2,100 萬美元；而一般及行政費用也比前一年下降 3% 至 3,000 萬美元，主要原因是人員和保險費用均有所下降。

Personnel expense and headcount control continued to be a high priority. Total headcount is down about 9% as compared to the prior year at 1,211. While the top line IFP, as noted, grew about 22%. Including outsourced personnel expense, which has been part of our strategy for several years, this expense improvement rate would be similar.

人員費用和人員數量控制仍然是重中之重。與前一年相比，員工總數減少了約 9%，為 1211 人。如前所述，總 IFP 增長了約 22%。如果將外包人員費用（這已成為我們多年來的策略的一部分）也計算在內，這項費用改善率將與之類似。

Our net loss was a loss of $57 million in Q2 or $0.81 per share, which is a 15% improvement as compared to the second quarter a year ago. Our adjusted EBITDA loss was a loss of $43 million in Q2, a roughly 18% improvement year-on-year.

第二季淨虧損為 5,700 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.81 美元，與去年同期相比改善了 15%。第二季調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 4,300 萬美元，較去年同期改善約 18%。

Our total cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter at approximately $931 million, up $4 million versus the prior quarter, showing a nice positive net cash flow trend in the quarter. This positive net cash flow contrasts markedly with a net use of cash of $51 million in the same quarter in the prior year.

本季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額約為 9.31 億美元，比上一季增加了 400 萬美元，顯示本季淨現金流呈現良好的正成長趨勢。這一正的淨現金流與上年同期淨現金支出 5,100 萬美元形成了鮮明對比。

With these metrics in mind, I'll outline our specific financial expectations for the third quarter and full year 2024. Our expectations for the full year remain unchanged as compared to our guidance on our Q1 earnings call.

基於這些指標，我將概述我們對 2024 年第三季和全年的具體財務預期。與第一季財報電話會議上的預期相比，我們對全年的預期保持不變。

As has been the case in some prior years, there's a notable seasonal difference in our expected results in Q3 and Q4. Specifically, Q3 is typically our highest gross spend quarter, which tends to drive up sales and marketing spend and also typically a higher expected loss ratio as compared to Q4.

與往年一樣，第三季和第四季的預期業績存在明顯的季節性差異。具體來說，第三季通常是我們總支出最高的季度，這往往會推高銷售和行銷支出，而且與第四季度相比，預期損失率通常也會更高。

Our third quarter guidance and our implied Q4 guidance reflect these seasonal themes. From a gross spend perspective, we expect to invest roughly $25 million-more in Q3 as compared to Q3 in the prior year to generate profitable customers with a healthy lifetime value. At the same time, we will be proactively non-renewing customers with unhealthy lifetime value, specifically certain CAT-exposed homeowners policies.

我們的第三季業績指引和第四季業績指引均反映了這些季節性因素。從總支出角度來看，我們預計第三季將比去年同期多投資約 2,500 萬美元，以創造具有健康終身價值的獲利客戶。同時，我們將主動停止續保那些終身價值不健康的客戶，特別是某些受巨災影響的房屋保單。

As our AI's had become increasingly good at identifying such policies and as our latest underwriting rules have been approved by regulators we now have the ability to identify older policies that we wouldn't write today. We expect this to remove between $20 million and $25 million of IFP from our book in the second half of 2024, dampening growth in the immediate term, while concurrently boosting cash flow and profitability in the medium term and further reducing CAT volatility. Importantly, though, our IFP guidance for the year reflects these plans and remains unchanged.

隨著我們的人工智慧越來越擅長識別此類保單，並且我們最新的承保規則也已獲得監管機構的批准，我們現在能夠識別出我們今天不會承保的舊保單。我們預計這將使我們在 2024 年下半年的帳簿中減少 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元的 IFP，從而在短期內抑制增長，同時在中期內提高現金流和盈利能力，並進一步降低巨災波動性。但重要的是，我們今年的 IFP 指導意見反映了這些計劃，並且保持不變。

For the third quarter of 2024 we expect in-force premium at September 30 of between $875 million and $879 million. Gross earned premium between $208 million and $210 million revenue between $124 million and $126 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of between $58 million and $56 million.

我們預計 2024 年第三季截至 9 月 30 日的有效保費將在 8.75 億美元至 8.79 億美元之間。毛保費收入在 2.08 億美元至 2.1 億美元之間，營收在 1.24 億美元至 1.26 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 虧損在 5,800 萬美元至 5,600 萬美元之間。

We expect stock-based compensation expense of approximately $16 million (sic, see shareholder letter, page 12, $17 million). Capital expenditures, approximately $3 million and a weighted average share count for the quarter of approximately 71 million shares. And for the full year of 2024, we expect in force premium at December 31 of between $940 million and $944 million.

我們預期股票選擇權費用約為 1,600 萬美元（原文如此，請參閱股東信第 12 頁，1,700 萬美元）。資本支出約 300 萬美元，本季加權平均股份數約為 7,100 萬股。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計截至 12 月 31 日的有效保費將在 9.4 億美元至 9.44 億美元之間。

Gross earned premium between $818 million and $822 million, revenue between $511 million and $515 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of between $155 million and $151 million. And we expect stock-based compensation for the full year of approximately $64 million, CapEx of approximately $10 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 71 million shares.

毛保費收入在 8.18 億美元至 8.22 億美元之間，營收在 5.11 億美元至 5.15 億美元之間，調整後 EBITDA 虧損在 1.55 億美元至 1.51 億美元之間。我們預計全年股票選擇權誘因約為 6,400 萬美元，資本支出約為 1,000 萬美元，加權平均股票數量約為 7,100 萬股。

And with that, I'd like to hand things back over to Shai to answer some questions from a few of our retail investors. Shai?

接下來，我想把麥克風交給 Shai，讓他回答幾位散戶投資者提出的問題。沙伊？

Thanks, Tim. We now turn over to our shareholders' questions submitted through the [say] platform.

謝謝你，提姆。現在我們來回答股東們透過[say]平台提交的問題。

I'll start with Matthew H, who asks how are we leveraging AI technology to improve underwriting claim processing and overall customer experience and are there any major business risks or challenges to further leveraging AI?

首先是 Matthew H 的問題，他問道：我們如何利用人工智慧技術來改善核保理賠處理和整體客戶體驗？進一步利用人工智慧是否有任何重大業務風險或挑戰？

Thanks, Matthew. We've spoken about this at some depth in prior shareholders letters. As I showed in the past, we're well underway to leverage AI at every stage of the customer journey as well as in many areas of our internal operations. We do that to drive efficiency, improve our underwriting and enhance customer experience with fast and always available smart service.

謝謝你，馬修。我們在先前的股東信中已經對此進行深入討論。正如我過去所展示的那樣，我們正在穩步推進人工智慧在客戶旅程的每個階段以及我們內部營運的許多領域中的應用。我們這樣做是為了提高效率、改善核保流程，並透過快速、隨時可用的智慧服務提升客戶體驗。

Our underwriting customer service and claims management, even employee management, administration, engineering, product operations, all use AI heavily as an example, in just over a year, we've went from a standing start to having a comprehensively rolled out generative AI platform to handle incoming customer communications.

例如，我們的核保客戶服務和理賠管理，甚至員工管理、行政、工程、產品營運等都大量使用了人工智慧。短短一年多時間，我們就從零起步，發展到擁有一個全面推出的生成式人工智慧平台來處理客戶來電。

We handle email and text communications coming in, and we're now handling more than 30% of these interactions with absolutely no human intervention. Progress to date is the tip of the iceberg though, and I expect us to continue to focus on additional applications of these technologies, delivering concrete measurable impact to the business and helping us widen the gap between our tech and the competitions.

我們處理收到的電子郵件和簡訊通信，現在超過 30% 的此類互動完全無需人工幹預即可處理。不過，目前的進展只是冰山一角，我希望我們能繼續專注於這些技術的其他應用，為業務帶來實際可衡量的影響，並幫助我們擴大自身技術與競爭對手之間的差距。

Naomi K, asks if we can share the performance metrics and customer feedback from states where all five of Lemonade insurance products are available and what are the main challenges or limiting factors preventing a broader rollout to additional states? And how do we plan to address these?

Naomi K 詢問我們是否可以分享 Lemonade 五款保險產品已在各州推出的業績指標和客戶反饋，以及阻礙向更多州更廣泛推廣的主要挑戰或限制因素是什麼？我們打算如何解決這些問題？

So thank you Naomi. The specific order of state expansion is generally based on growth potential and expected profitability in those markets as well as prioritization aspects that have to do with focus and resource allocation.

所以，謝謝你，娜歐蜜。各州擴張的具體順序通常取決於這些市場的成長潛力和預期獲利能力，以及與重點和資源分配相關的優先因素。

We expect cross-selling activity to be an increasingly powerful driver of growth as a result. In Illinois, for example, where we have all of our product available, we're seeing multi-line customer rates that are roughly double the rest of the book. We also see other metrics improve such as superior retention rates after bundling and outstanding customer feedback as measured by NPS.

因此，我們預期交叉銷售活動將成為越來越強大的成長驅動力。例如，在伊利諾州，我們所有的產品都在那裡有售，我們發現多線客戶的費率大約是其他客戶的兩倍。我們還看到其他指標有所改善，例如捆綁銷售後更高的客戶留存率和 NPS 衡量的出色客戶回饋。

There were several questions about car rollout timing and expectations. And I'll just say that the organization is running around car in a remarkable way, and we're expecting the growth rate of car to begin accelerating in the near future as a result.

關於汽車上市時間和預期，有許多問題需要解答。我只想說，該組織在汽車領域運作得非常出色，因此我們預計汽車行業的成長速度將在不久的將來開始加速。

We plan to roll out car to several additional states during 2025, with our main considerations being profitability predictions and regulatory approval rates, we aim to operate first in states where we can move quickly and write new business profitably.

我們計劃在 2025 年將汽車推廣到其他幾個州，我們主要考慮的是盈利預測和監管審批率，我們的目標是首先在我們可以快速推進並盈利地開展新業務的州開展業務。

In the second half and beyond with the unlock of rate adequacy in multiple geographies, we'll be expanding investment in new customer acquisition as well as cross-selling to our existing user base.

在下半年及以後，隨著多個地區費率充足性的提升，我們將增加對新客戶獲取的投資，並向現有用戶群進行交叉銷售。

And now I'll turn the call back to the operator for more questions from our friends from the street.

現在我將把電話轉回給接線員，聽聽我們街頭朋友們的更多問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jack MacKinnon, BMO.

（操作說明）傑克·麥金農，BMO。

Hey, good morning. Just wondering if you could provide some more details on the non-renewals of the CAT-exposed home business, in which states you're actions primarily taken place and other particular years of business that you're focused on. I guess in general, you talked many insights that you've learned from your more our recent miles would lead to your decision?

嘿，早安。我想請您提供更多關於受 CAT 影響的家庭企業未續保的詳細信息，例如您的行動主要發生在哪些州，以及您關注的其他特定年份的業務情況。我想，總的來說，你談到了很多你從最近的行駛里程中獲得的感悟，這些感悟最終促成了你的決定？

Yes. So a couple of thoughts there. In terms of the distribution across state, that's really more of a -- it can be concentrated in states. It's really focused more on expected lifetime value, which tends to be quite driven by a higher than target loss ratio. That tends to be concentrated within the home book almost entirely, which is the most challenging loss ratio we have.

是的。我有幾點想法。就各州的分佈而言，情況就更像是——它可能集中在某些州。它更側重於預期生命週期價值，而這往往受到高於目標損失率的影響。這種情況幾乎完全集中在房屋保險業務中，而房屋保險的虧損率是我們面臨的最大挑戰。

As we've talked a little bit about the letter the range that we're targeting, which is [20] to [25], we talk about a range because it's not a hard number, but it's based on what we know and as we're kind of developing that analysis that feels like the most appropriate range. Important to note that while it puts downward pressure on IFP growth because all of our -- every customer kind of adds up to that total IFP number from a cash perspective or a value perspective, it's kind of very high ROI.

正如我們剛才討論過的，我們瞄準的字母範圍是 [20] 到 [25]，我們說的是一個範圍，因為它不是一個確切的數字，而是基於我們所知道的，並且隨著我們不斷進行分析，我們覺得這是最合適的範圍。值得注意的是，雖然這會對 IFP 成長造成下行壓力，因為我們所有的客戶——從現金或價值的角度來看，每個客戶都會增加 IFP 總數，但它的投資報酬率非常高。

We're taking out much more expected costs than we are taking out contribution from the premiums so it's that we are live positive. So if you take out, for example, $25 million of IFP with an elevated loss ratio, you can generate just using our own model of something like $50 million or $60 million in net positive values.

我們扣除的預期成本遠高於從保費中扣除的金額，因此我們獲利。例如，如果您從損失率較高的 IFP 中取出 2500 萬美元，那麼僅使用我們自己的模型，您就可以產生大約 5000 萬美元或 6000 萬美元的淨正值。

So a little short-term pressure on IFP, but for the medium term, long term value. In terms of timeframe, these tend to be older policies. So our underwriting rules and our AI models, gets a little bit better every day. And so the concentration tends to be business, we wrote two or three or four years ago in some cases. And as noted, the vast majority, if not 100% of this business would be business, we wouldn't write today and our current underwriting guidelines.

因此，IFP短期內會面臨一些壓力，但從中長期來看，其價值仍可觀。從時間跨度來看，這些往往是較早的政策。因此，我們的核保規則和人工智慧模型每天都在進步一點點。因此，重點往往是商業，我們兩三年前甚至四年前就寫過。如同前面所提到的，即使不是全部，絕大多數這類業務都是我們今天不會承保的，也不符合我們目前的核保準則。

That's helpful. Thank you. And to second question is on capital. Can you talk about the premium to surplus ratio that Lemonade expects to maintain as your business mix evolves.

那很有幫助。謝謝。第二個問題是關於資本的。能否談談隨著業務組合的演變，Lemonade 預計保持的溢價與盈餘比率？

And I guess somewhat relatedly, it looks like your invested asset balance has been falling in recent quarters. Is that something that the company expects to continue doing moving forward, I think is trying to get some insights into net investment income. Thank you.

而且，我猜想這與此有些關聯，您的投資資產餘額似乎在最近幾季一直在下降。我認為，這是該公司希望繼續進行的活動，目的是了解淨投資收益。謝謝。

Sure. So on the capital surplus, we've not talked about that for a while because these are essentially unchanged. Our target is and continues to be a roughly 1:6 ratio of required surplus to gross from premium. And we've got at least a couple of very effective tools in place to help us drive that number to what is arguably sort of best-in-class industry. This is what many insurance companies should do. And I think we're performing quite well on that metric.

當然。所以關於資本盈餘，我們已經有一段時間沒有討論這個問題了，因為這些基本上沒有改變。我們的目標是並將繼續保持所需盈餘與保費毛利約 1:6 的比例。我們至少擁有兩種非常有效的工具，可以幫助我們將這個數字提升到可以說是業界最佳的水平。這正是許多保險公司該做的事。我認為我們在這個指標上表現相當不錯。

Our quota-share structure, our came in captive structure, these are really designed not only to mitigate volatility, but more importantly to drive, to enable significant capital surplus efficiencies so that's really unchanged at that 1:6 ratio.

我們的配額股份結構，我們的自保結構，這些結構的設計目的不僅是為了降低波動性，更重要的是是為了推動、實現顯著的資本盈餘效率，因此，1:6 的比例實際上保持不變。

from a cash investment standpoint, yeah, you will note charted out the cash balances has increased somewhat as a percentage of the total, but that's not so much concerted strategy, I would expect that trend to moderate or even flatten out before too long.

從現金投資的角度來看，是的，你會注意到圖表顯示現金餘額佔總數的比例有所增加，但這並非刻意為之的策略，我預計這種趨勢很快就會放緩甚至趨於平穩。

However, though the interest rate environment is what it is. We're expecting what you and others are expecting to market there will be perhaps more downward pressure on interest rates and upward pressure and we've factored in sort of the most current forecasts into our guidance in terms of what we expect investment income is likely to be.

然而，利率環境就是這樣。我們預計，正如您和其他人所預期的那樣，市場可能會面臨更大的利率下行壓力和上行壓力，我們已經將最新的預測因素納入了我們對投資收益預期的指導意見中。

The good news is our cash and investments balance actually went up this quarter. In total, we're earning really strong returns on the cash as well as the investments. And so that's something that I would highlight if we foresee that cash and investments balance basically dropping, it might drop another 1% or 2%, as you noted.

好消息是，本季我們的現金和投資餘額實際上有所增加。總的來說，我們的現金和投資都獲得了非常可觀的回報。所以，如果現金和投資餘額基本上下降，正如您所指出的，可能會再下降 1% 或 2%，這就是我想強調的一點。

But that puts us well above a $900 million total cash investments balance from here on out, as far as we can see, compare that to three or four years ago when there was quite a bit more uncertainty as to our growth trajectory and where that balance might end up at a dramatic change, I think provides a tremendous foundation for us going forward.

但就我們目前所見，這將使我們的現金投資總額遠遠超過 9 億美元。與三、四年前相比，當時我們的成長軌跡以及最終餘額可能會發生巨大變化，存在著相當大的不確定性，我認為這為我們未來的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

Thank you. Good morning everybody. Question first on auto and kind of follow up from the opening comments about some new state expansions as you get into next year. From -- the last time I had I think you were at 11 states. I'm not sure that's the right. As you look out over the next maybe 18 months, given kind of a decent rate environment for auto, it might be slowing down, but should we expect a state expansion by say, year-end '25 to be close to like 20 states or 40 states? Or just kind of how aggressively you want to be over the next 18 months?

謝謝。大家早安。首先問一個關於汽車的問題，然後是開篇評論的後續，關於明年一些新的州擴張計劃。上次我見到你的時候，我想你當時在11州。我不確定那是否正確。展望未來 18 個月，鑑於汽車保險市場利率環境尚可，成長速度可能會放緩，但我們是否應該預期到 2025 年底，州級擴張將接近 20 個州或 40 個州？或者，你只是想了解你希望在接下來的18個月裡採取多麼積極的策略？

Hey Mike. No, I don't think we'll be at 40 states and of course, to state the obvious, not all states are born equal. And so we will be expanding and throughout 2025 we haven't given specific numbers into my answer today is that going to remain a little bit big still.

嘿，麥克。不，我不認為我們會達到 40 個州，當然，顯而易見的是，並非所有州生來平等。因此，我們將繼續擴張，到 2025 年，我們還沒有給出具體的數字，我今天的回答是，規模仍將保持稍大一些。

One of the driving factors is going to be the graduation of all renters to be car customers. So we will be looking in one of the guiding principles I spoke about regulatory environments and predictive loss ratios. Another one is where we have the largest footprint of renters and who have cause, but don't have co-insurance with us, and that will be another driving force. But we're not ready to disclose a numbers of states yet.

其中一個主要驅動因素是所有租車用戶都將升級為汽車用戶。因此，我們將著眼於我剛才提到的指導原則之一，即監管環境和預測損失率。另一個原因是，我們擁有數量最多的租屋者，他們有理有據，但沒有在我們這裡購買共同保險，這將是另一個推動因素。但我們目前還不便透露具體涉及的州的數量。

Okay. I can appreciate that, thanks Daniel. I guess continuing with that, maybe a follow up on that is typically as we're growing in new states, there can be some pressure on our margins in auto, maybe for you guys, I guess I want to see, what do you think that might be a bit muted than what normally is the case given I think you've talked about knowledge that you have from your current renters and homeowners customer base and how that can translate into more information in your initial pricing for auto. Is that starts to grow?

好的。我明白了，謝謝你，丹尼爾。我想繼續說下去，也許可以接著問，通常情況下，隨著我們在新州的業務成長，汽車業務的利潤率可能會面臨一些壓力。我想看看你們的看法，考慮到你們之前提到過，你們從現有的租房者和房主客戶群中獲得了信息，這些信息可以轉化為汽車業務初始定價中的更多信息，那麼你們認為這種壓力是否會比通常情況要小一些？那東西開始生長了嗎？

Yeah. Look, we are -- talking about this before, but we are very bullish in the medium to long term on car. We think it's a highly differentiated product with a strong and structural competitive advantage, given that -- at first approximation, all our customers use telematics on an ongoing basis and whereas our first approximation for the incumbents that none of zero. So this is really a very powerful differentiator, quite beside or in addition to the fact that, we've really spectacular user experience, very high customer satisfaction levels, et cetera.

是的。你看，我們之前也討論過這個問題，但我們非常看好汽車產業的中長期發展。我們認為這是一個高度差異化的產品，具有強大的結構性競爭優勢，因為——初步估計，我們所有的客戶都在持續使用遠端資訊處理技術，而我們初步估計，現有企業中沒有一家使用這項技術。所以，這確實是一個非常強大的差異化優勢，除此之外，我們還有非常出色的使用者體驗、非常高的客戶滿意度等等。

Going back to my comment earlier about the renters aspect so, yes, we are seeing that renters who buy car insurance have very much to use your word muted loss ratio in fact their whole economics are dramatically different. The cost of acquisition is effectively zero and you might even conceive of it as being negative cash because our renters book is very profitable.

回到我之前關於租屋者方面的評論，是的，我們看到購買汽車保險的租屋者，用你的話說，損失率要低得多，事實上他們的整個經濟狀況都截然不同。獲客成本實際上為零，甚至可以說為負現金流，因為我們的租客業務非常盈利。

And then you've got existing customers who ostensibly have paid to be Lemonade customers, but they are profitable at the outset when we get to sell them a car policy with no incremental costs. Again, I'm rounding here, but I think a personal approximation that holds true and we have found them to be not only highly profitable because of the absence of any customer acquisition cost, but much better because we do use the fact that you said much better risks.

此外，還有一些現有客戶，他們表面上是付費成為 Lemonade 的客戶，但當我們向他們出售汽車保險而無需額外成本時，他們從一開始就能帶來利潤。我再次強調，這只是一個近似值，但我認為這是一個合理的個人估算，我們發現它們不僅因為沒有任何客戶獲取成本而利潤豐厚，而且由於我們利用了您所說的風險要好得多這一事實，因此效果更好。

So we can price them effectively. We don't see the new business penalty that you see when you usually grow a book. So very, very different unit economics and lifetime value of existing customers. This is really, I think, a strategic pillar that we will expand on during our Investor Day as well later in the year.

這樣我們就能有效地定價。我們沒有看到通常拓展業務時會出現的新業務懲罰。因此，單位經濟效益和現有客戶的終身價值都大不相同。我認為，這確實是一個戰略支柱，我們將在今年稍後的投資者日上對此進行更詳細的闡述。

And we do have a little over 2 million existing customers, many of whom have some coinsurance just not with Lemonade. And that opportunity translates into very, very sizable, and ultimately, we expect a profitable opportunity for us.

我們目前擁有 200 多萬現有客戶，其中許多人都有共同保險，只是沒有透過 Lemonade 購買。而這個機會將轉化為非常非常大的機會，最終，我們預期這將為我們帶來獲利的機會。

Probably also worth noting the external environment (multiple speaker) external environment is improving as well. So for some time we and other car providers, we're chasing a target with inflations, unfavorable impact on cost of repairs and cost of claims. The data is now really showing that trend has slowed, if not stalled it, in some cases, may even reverse.

也值得注意的是，外在環境（多位發言者）也在改善。因此，一段時間以來，我們和其他汽車供應商都在追逐一個目標，但通貨膨脹卻對維修成本和理賠成本產生了不利影響。現在的數據確實表明，這種趨勢已經放緩，甚至停滯，在某些情況下，甚至可能出現逆轉。

And so chasing that target has now much of the impact of our rate increases, both already in place and those are continuing to work on have even greater impact and that really provides a higher level of confidence comfort in our planning for car for the rest of this year and well into next year as well.

因此，為了實現這一目標，我們目前的升息措施，包括已經實施的和正在實施的，都產生了更大的影響，這確實讓我們對今年剩餘時間和明年很長一段時間的汽車規劃更有信心和舒適度。

We noted that our gross loss ratio improvement across our product lines improved anywhere from 5% to 30% car was a right at the upper end of that range. So we're seeing lots of great indicators.

我們注意到，我們所有產品線的毛損率改善幅度在 5% 到 30% 之間，其中汽車的改善幅度正好處於該範圍的上限。所以我們看到了很多積極的跡象。

Yeah. Perfect. Okay, great. Thank you, guys. Appreciate it.

是的。完美的。好的，太好了。謝謝大家。謝謝。

Tommy McJoynt, Stifel.

Tommy McJoynt，Stifel。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. Tim, kind of going back to the first question that you got on the non-renewal side. So you mentioned the $25 million of I've non-renewed IFP, and that's going to be offset by it sounded like I think you said $50 million to $60 million of sort of net positive value.

嘿，大家早安。謝謝您回答我的問題。提姆，這有點像是回到你之前收到的關於不續約的第一個問題。所以你提到了2500萬美元的未續約IFP，而這將被5000萬至6000萬美元的淨正價值所抵消。

But let's call it, $50 million is, sorry, is that saying that the LTV of those policies instead of being presumably positive when you wrote it, is now being sort of reassessed at negative $50 million and hence by not writing non-renewing that business, it will now be zero. Just kind of help explain sort of what that $50 million to $60 million number that you mentioned actually --

但我們可以這樣說，5000 萬美元，抱歉，我的意思是，這些保單的 LTV（貸款價值比）原本應該是正數，但現在被重新評估為負 5000 萬美元，因此，如果不續保，它的 LTV 就將為零。我只是想幫您解釋一下您提到的那5000萬到6000萬美元這個數字具體指的是什麼。--

Yeah, in rough strokes, the way you describe is right. So a customer has an expected lifetime value, let's say, of 3 times its acquisition cost, which is often typical for us, that means over the course of their lifetime, two, three, four years, depending on the product or more we expect to generate that incremental cash flow or value.

是的，大致來說，你描述的方式是對的。假設客戶的預期終身價值是其獲客成本的 3 倍（這對我們來說通常很典型），這意味著在其生命週期內（兩到三年、四年或更長時間，取決於產品），我們預計會產生增量現金流或價值。

What this says, we expect that lifetime value to be a negative $50 million or $60 million in the case I described before for IFP. So think of that ratio sort of a negative 2:1 ratio. I mean, that's really almost entirely driven by the elevated loss ratio. If a customer has an expected 150% loss ratio, for example, and you carry that customer out for a couple of three years or more, that's the driver. So I think you have the analysis, right that it's rough justice, but it's notably positive ROI for those changes.

這意味著，我們預計，在我之前描述的 IFP 案例中，其終身價值將為負 5,000 萬美元或 6,000 萬美元。所以你可以把這個比例理解為負的 2:1 比例。我的意思是，這幾乎完全是由較高的損失率造成的。例如，如果一個客戶的預期損失率為 150%，而你與該客戶保持了兩三年或更長時間的合作關係，這就是驅動因素。所以我認為你的分析是正確的，雖然結果可能不夠公正，但這些改變帶來的投資報酬率是顯著的正向的。

Okay, got it. And do you know what the impact on the loss ratio from that sort of $25 million IFP was in the first half of the year or even in absolute dollars, kind of how much the sort of operating loss that that business generated contributed?

好的，明白了。你知道這筆 2,500 萬美元的 IFP 對上半年的虧損率產生了什麼影響嗎？或者說，以絕對金額計算，這項業務產生的營運虧損究竟造成了多大的損失？

hard to really put a precise number on that I would think of that range of 20 to 25 is over the course of the year, the vast majority in Q3 and Q4. So it's really a forward-looking number and expected impact we had started the process, there was a nominal amount in Q2, probably rounds to and it's pretty close to zero. So it's really a Q3, Q4 and forward expectation.

很難給出一個確切的數字，我認為全年大概會有 20 到 25 例，其中絕大多數發生在第三季和第四季。所以這確實是一個前瞻性的數字，也是我們啟動流程後預期的影響，第二季有一個名義上的金額，可能會四捨五入到，而且非常接近零。所以這其實是對第三季、第四季以及未來業績的預期。

A little more concentrated in Q3, then Q4. Our loss ratio vary has borne the burden of that business. And so it's really notable. I think that our loss ratio improved mid-double digit year on year with some of that downward pressure. And so all of these changes not just rate changes. We'll have a favorable -- continued favorable impact on the loss ratio going forward.

第三季比第四季更集中一些。我們的損失率變化給這項業務帶來了負擔。所以這確實值得關注。我認為，在部分下行壓力下，我們的賠付率比去年同期下降了兩位數中段。因此，所有這些變化不僅僅是利率變化。我們將對未來的賠付率產生有利影響，而這種有利影響將持續下去。

(multiple speaker) me about this --

（多人發言）跟我說這件事--

Okay. Got it.

好的。知道了。

Sorry, just a one other kind of bunched point of color, and Tim mentioned this briefly in his comments. This is a really a homeowner's focused plan fix, it's one part of our business that has had pockets of sustained negative LTV and in addition to being negative in LTV, they've been environmental oftentimes we could not get the rate approval, in theory, any risk can be priced adequately, but we don't always find regulators affording us that luxury.

抱歉，還有另一種顏色簇狀分佈的情況，蒂姆在他的評論中簡要提到了這一點。這確實是一個以房主為中心的計劃解決方案，這是我們業務中一直存在持續負貸款價值比 (LTV) 的部分，除了 LTV 為負之外，它們還經常受到環境影響，導致我們無法獲得利率批准。理論上，任何風險都可以合理定價，但監管機構並不總是允許我們這樣做。

So this is parts of the business where we just were not able to get the approvals and don't expect to in any fashion. Otherwise, we would have been and we've shown more forbearance if we thought it's on the cusp of turning profitable.

所以，在某些業務領域，我們始終無法獲得批准，也不指望能以任何方式獲得批准。否則，如果我們認為它即將獲利，我們就會表現出更大的耐心，而我們也確實如此。

But in addition to being still stubbornly unprofitable, it also tends to concentrate very much in volatile parts of the country. So even some of this business where we to get to long-term average profitability, we've always sought to avoid the most CAT exposed part of our business of the country rather sorry, and we have avoided writing in the CAT most exposed places really since our inception, in places where we have still found that the velocity is higher than we want now knowing what we know, we're also take this opportunity to non-renew that part of the business.

但除了仍難以獲利之外，它還往往高度集中在國內動盪的地區。因此，即使是我們為了實現長期平均盈利能力而開展的一些業務，我們也一直努力避免涉足國內受巨災影響最大的業務領域，很遺憾，自公司成立以來，我們一直避免在受巨災影響最大的地區進行投資，因為我們發現，在這些地區，風險週轉率仍然高於我們的預期。鑑於我們現在所掌握的信息，我們也藉此機會不再續簽這部分業務。

And maybe just to put a finer point on it based on a couple of questions have gotten already? I'll answer your question, that was has not been asked, which is if this number is [25] as we expect it to be. The question might be what your if the expectations have been $25 million greater, if not for the impact of this? The answers yeah. Yes.

或許可以根據已經收到的幾個問題，更詳細地闡述一下？我會回答你提出的問題，這個問題還沒有人問過，那就是這個數字是否如我們所預期的那樣是 [25]。問題可能是，如果不是因為這件事的影響，預期收益是否會高出 2,500 萬美元？答案是肯定的。是的。

Okay. Got it. Appreciate that color. And then just quickly you mentioned expectations for growth spend in 3Q to be $25 million up year-over-year. Did you give a 4Q number or do we have the full year kind of expectations?

好的。知道了。欣賞這種顏色。然後您也簡要提到，預計第三季成長支出將比去年同期增加 2,500 萬美元。您給出的是第四季的具體數據，還是全年的預期？

Yeah, I would think at the full year is really unchanged. The timing over the course of the quarters has changed somewhat. The guidance we gave historically is sort of between 100 and 110, 105 of the number we mentioned. So I think we're still sort of on track and plan to spend that rough amount over the course of the full year, we have adjusted the timing of that somewhat a little bit more than initially planned in Q3.

是的，我認為全年情況應該不會有什麼改變。各季度之間的時間安排略有變化。我們以往給予的指導意見大致在 100 到 110 之間，或在我們提到的數字的 105 左右。所以我認為我們仍然基本上按計劃進行，併計劃在全年內花費這筆大致金額，我們在第三季度對時間安排進行了一些調整，比最初計劃的要多一些。

Then otherwise, Q3 is typically the highest gross spend quarter in any case in most years. And fourth quarter, obviously, if you can kind of do the math will be somewhat elevated as well. Q1 was really the ramp-up quarter. And so it's a pretty steep climb, and we expect Q3 to be at the rate we disclosed.

否則，在大多數年份，第三季通常是總支出最高的季度。顯然，如果你能算出其中的規律，第四季的數據也會上升。第一季實際上是成長階段。因此，這是一個相當陡峭的攀升過程，我們預計第三季將達到我們先前披露的速度。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you. So, first one is on your 17 points of improvement in CAT losses, which what was I mean -- sorry 17 points of impact on CAT losses, which is a 5 point improvement. Directionally speaking, that's obviously similar to the industry.

偉大的。謝謝。首先，關於您在巨災損失方面取得的 17 點改善，我的意思是——抱歉，是巨災損失方面取得了 17 點的影響，也就是 5 點的改善。從方向上看，這顯然與產業發展趨勢相似。

As you non-renewal the homeowner side, is there a run rate expectation on what cat losses should look like going forward? Can you give us a little bit more color on just like how we should think about that impact? I know that you already talked about quite a bit on the impact on the other side of things on the homeowner renewal.

身為不續保的房主，您對未來巨災損失的發生率有何預期？您能否更詳細地解釋一下我們該如何看待這種影響？我知道您已經談了很多關於房主續約的影響。

Just to see if there's any additional color on the cat side, that's probably a little bit beyond some of the guidance we've given. I can give you a little bit of the way you might think about our home business as a share of the total business, is coming down as a percentage, but just modestly as it came in the quarter. And this is home and condo combined came in about just under 20%, and it's down a couple of points year-on-year. And so you can kind of back into if we were to take $25 million of IFP, are you back into what that impact might be.

只是想看看貓咪那邊是否還有其他顏色，這可能有點超出我們給的一些指導範圍了。我可以稍微解釋一下，從某個角度來看，我們家庭業務在總業務中所佔的比例正在下降，但與本季相比，下降幅度並不大。住宅和公寓的總漲幅略低於 20%，比去年同期下降了幾個百分點。所以，你可以反過來想，如果我們從 IFP 獲得 2500 萬美元，會產生什麼影響。

And in terms of a specific reduction on a loss ratio, it's a little tricky to do that. I'm not going to venture that far. But CAT is really isolated almost entirely to home, not quite 100%, but primarily home. And really these are the most challenging policies. Obviously, that will go after. So I'll leave it to you to kind of do some math, but that's how I would go about it.

而要具體降低賠付率，就有點棘手了。我不會冒險走那麼遠。但 CAT 實際上幾乎完全局限於家庭內部，雖然不是 100% 完全局限於家庭內部。這些才是真正最具挑戰性的政策。顯然，那之後就會發生。所以，剩下的就交給你來算算了，但我會這麼做。

Okay. Maybe second one on just how we should think about ceding commission. So if we look at a ceding commission as a percent of premium last call it, five quarters is generally about 20%. This quarter was notably lower than that? Is this more of a one-time thing? What's driving that? And should it go back to about 20% of premium going forward?

好的。或許第二個問題應該談談我們該如何看待佣金讓渡這件事。因此，如果我們把轉讓佣金看作保費的百分比，那麼最後算一下，五個季度通常約為 20%。本季明顯低於上一季？這更像是一次性事件嗎？是什麼原因導致這種情況？那麼未來保費是否應該恢復到20%左右呢？

Yeah. So a couple of ways to think about the ceding commission. So year on year, there is a change because there was a change in the structure. The prior year was a fixed structure up through July renewal a year ago. And so you saw in the face of the P&L, roughly a 20% effective commission.

是的。所以，關於讓渡佣金，我們可以從幾個方面來思考。所以，由於結構發生了變化，每年都會有所變化。上一年是固定結構，直到去年7月續約。因此，從損益表上可以看出，實際佣金率約為 20%。

Now our commission because of the way we do the accounting gets split into two pieces so our effective commission rate was about running about 23%. But the most important thing was it was static. It was a fixed number, that's now variable, that helpful in some ways, but a little less, little trickier when you're building a model.

由於我們的會計處理方式，佣金被分成兩部分，因此我們的實際佣金率約為 23%。但最重要的是，它是靜止的。以前這是一個固定值，現在變成了可變值，這在某些方面很有幫助，但在建立模型時卻有點不太方便，也更棘手一些。

But the net difference over, I think one way to think about as we look at Q1 and Q2, the net commissions by 18% versus 20%. So modestly lower but just by a couple of points, but more volatility, more variability. So Q1 was a fair bit lower. Q2 was higher, we'll continue to see that move around a little bit quarter-to-quarter, but that gets trued up as you go through the course of the year. So I would expect we'll give us as much of an indication on that as we can. But I would think of it as a couple of points lower than prior year, but there are some offsets to that as well.

但總的來說，我認為在比較第一季和第二季時，我們可以這樣看待淨差額：淨佣金分別為 18% 和 20%。所以稍微下降，但只下降了幾個百分點，不過波動性更大，變化性更大。所以第一季的數據低很多。第二季數據較高，我們預期季度間數據仍會略有波動，但隨著年內數據的不斷變化，這種波動會逐漸趨於穩定。所以我希望我們能盡可能透露一些相關資訊。但我認為它比前一年低了幾個百分點，不過也有一些抵銷因素。

Our renewal this year was similar. It is also a sliding scale that begins -- this month began in July, but the scale and the expected effective rate will actually little bit better. At this point, hard to say if it gets back to the prior level, but it should be up maybe a point or two on any sort of apples to apples comparison. So slightly better terms in this renewal.

我們今年的續約情況也類似。這是一個逐步調整的方案－本月從7月開始，但方案和預期有效率其實會略有改善。目前還很難說它能否恢復到先前的水平，但如果進行任何同等條件下的比較，它應該會上升一到兩個百分點。所以這次續約的條款略好一些。

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you very much.

知道了。很有幫助。非常感謝。

Thank you. our next question come from --

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自--

Probably also worth that answering another -- like answering questions that weren't asked. So I'll throw in another one, which is, because the loss ratio varies obviously, quarter to quarter. The typical pattern has been a Q4 loss ratio that's the lowest of the four quarters that's happened often in prior years. We expect it will happen this year. And if that plays out as expected, that has a pretty strong favorable impact on that commission rate.

或許回答另一個問題也很有價值──例如回答那些沒人問的問題。所以我再補充一點，因為損失率顯然會因季度而異。往年常出現第四季虧損率最低的典型情況。我們預計今年就會發生。如果情況如預期發展，這將對佣金率產生相當有利的影響。

And so again, a little more volatile quarter to quarter. But if things play out as expected and as historical patterns, you'd see a nice favorable impact, so over the course of the year. It gets us back on track versus, some of the prior quarters can be a little bit lower commission rate.

因此，季度之間的波動性再次略有增加。但如果事情按預期和歷史規律發展，那麼在這一年中，你會看到一個不錯的有利影響。它使我們重回正軌，相比之下，前幾季的佣金率可能會略低一些。

Matthew O'Neill, FT partners.

Matthew O'Neill，FT 合夥人。

Yeah. Thank you so much for taking my question. I just wanted to ask a little bit about the premium per customer. It's been growing impressively, but the rate maybe decelerating slightly. So just curious if you could give us an assessment of kind of how far through the rate increases you are on the in-force book.

是的。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我只是想問一下關於每位客戶的保費問題。它的成長勢頭強勁，但成長速度可能略有放緩。所以，我只是好奇您能否評估一下，您目前有效保單的費率上漲進度如何。

Yes. So that can vary quarter to quarter. It has been pretty steady contributor, but our customer count was a stronger contributor to growth this year, quarter on quarter. Then the price increase, it varies by product. So as I mentioned in car, you're seeing a pretty dramatic impact in rent much less so because it's really so optimize, the loss ratios is such a strong loss ratio as is and pricing is quite good. So it varies by product.

是的。所以每季都會有所不同。雖然一直保持著相當穩定的成長，但今年以來，客戶數量的成長對季度環比成長的貢獻更大。然後價格上漲，具體漲幅因產品而異。正如我在汽車部分提到的，租金受到的影響相當顯著，但影響卻小得多，因為它的優化程度非常高，損失率本身就很高，而且定價也相當不錯。所以具體情況因產品而異。

In terms of where we are, I think two or three quarters ago, we mentioned that we were sort of halfway through. There's a $100 million or so remaining to earn in. That's more or less unchanged because as we -- the pace of us earning in rate and the business filing for new rates, it's been roughly in balance. So I think of us in a similar spot now where there's still plenty of rate to earn in. Obviously, that doesn't last forever.

就我們目前的進展而言，我想大約在兩到三個季度前，我們提到我們已經完成了一半。還有大約1億美元的收入可以賺取。情況基本上沒有變化，因為我們——我們獲得利率的速度和企業申請新利率的速度——大致保持平衡。所以我覺得我們現在處境相似，仍然有很多機會可以賺取收益。顯然，這種情況不會永遠持續下去。

There will always be rate filings and always increases even in a low or no inflation environment. But we're quite a ways away from that. That is factored into our Q3, Q4 guidance, but that will continue to earn into that pace. And it will go into next year. So things that are approved and in place will earn well into next year.

即使在低通膨或零通膨環境下，也總會有利率調整申請，利率也總是會上漲。但我們離那一天還很遠。這已納入我們第三季和第四季的業績預期，但這一因素仍將繼續影響到目前的業績成長速度。這項任務將持續到明年。因此，那些獲得批准並落實到位的項目，明年仍將持續獲利。

Thanks. That's very helpful. And maybe just a quick one, and I realize I may be jumping the gun on potential investor day content, but I know you've spoken about the long term or ultimate target for the loss ratio in the high 60s to 70s. I don't know if there is kind of an internal or a way to think about the ultimate target for the expense ratio going forward.

謝謝。那很有幫助。也許可以簡單問一下，我知道我可能有點操之過急，想談談投資者日的內容，但我知道您曾談到過虧損率的長期或最終目標在 60% 到 70% 之間。我不知道是否存在某種內部機製或方法，可以思考未來費用率的最終目標。

Matthew, hi. So we are determined to have an expense load that will be absolutely best in the industry, we're beginning to look less at ratios because we also intend to be a price leader. And that might not give you as clear a picture of just how advantage we think would be coming due to our technology, but it will reflect itself in, I think, best-in-class expense ratio and even more dramatically in actual expense load, if you kind of put it on an apples-to-apples basis with the same premium, and that's being challenged by competitors.

馬修，你好。因此，我們決心將費用負擔控制在業界絕對最低，我們開始減少對比率的關注，因為我們也打算成為價格領導者。這或許不能讓你清楚地看到我們認為我們的技術會帶來多大的優勢，但我認為，這將體現在一流的費用率上，如果以相同的保費進行公平比較，實際費用負擔將會更加顯著，而這一點正受到競爭對手的挑戰。

It will manifest itself more powerfully still, I mean, you look at it against our own lower premiums because we think we get to pass some of those savings onto customers and that can accelerate growth and accelerate retention, lower cost of acquisition and allow us to achieve our ultimate and rather ambitious goals for the company.

它將以更強大的方式展現出來，我的意思是，看看我們自身較低的保費，因為我們認為我們可以將部分節省下來的費用轉嫁給客戶，這可以加速增長和提高客戶留存率，降低獲客成本，並使我們能夠實現公司最終的、相當雄心勃勃的目標。

But if I answer your question kind of more straightforwardly, we think that at scale, we will be in the teens, we disclosed last quarter that LAE component of our expense stack has already achieved parity with the very best in the industry.

但如果我更直接回答你的問題，我們認為規模擴大後，我們的費用將達到十幾美元。我們在上個季度披露，我們費用結構中的 LAE 部分已經與業內最佳水平持平。

We recorded a 7.6% LAE last quarter. So I mentioned some of the efficiencies that we're gaining through automation, and we're really seeing these rollout very, very powerfully from the numbers that we shared earlier about what's happened to our headcount expense, what's happened and to -- what we call the IFP per human, how many people would needed to jump to as we doubled our book we've been able to -- over the course of the last few years, been able to have the ratio of people needed to generate every dollar of premium.

上個季度我們錄得7.6%的LAE（地方政府支出增加）。所以我提到了一些我們透過自動化獲得的效率提升，從我們之前分享的關於人力成本、我們稱之為每人 IFP 的數據來看，這些效率提升確實非常顯著。隨著我們的業務量翻了一番，我們需要多少人才能達到這個水平，而過去幾年裡，我們已經能夠實現每產生一美元保費所需的人員比例。

So we're seeing very dramatic advancements all of which will ultimately reflect themselves in our competitive expense structure, some of which will manifest as lower prices and some of which will manifest, we believe still as best-in-class expense ratio.

因此，我們看到了非常顯著的進步，所有這些最終都將體現在我們具有競爭力的費用結構中，其中一些將表現為更低的價格，而另一些，我們相信，仍將表現為一流的費用率。

That said I'll add that it was referenced this in the letter as well. And we think of for structural reasons that may be obvious and some that are less than obvious, we think of growth as the gift that keeps on giving. We really think that the numbers that I just gave and the direction that I just outlined will become -- at the moment you can look at various times and see it in action.

也就是說，信中也提到了這一點。出於一些顯而易見和一些不太明顯的結構性原因，我們認為成長是一份不斷給予的禮物。我們真心認為，我剛才給出的數字和我剛才概述的方向將會成為——目前你可以看看不同的時期，看看它是如何運作的。

And I referenced a few of them, I think a few years from now it will be a miscible, it will be kind of glaringly obvious. And the difference between now and then is that we'll continue to grow. And as we continue to grow as we've doubled our business while holding our expense structure flat. We've kind of shared that over the course the last few years, we've seen expense net of customer acquisition actually decline even as we've enjoyed rapid growth play that movie forward holding expenses relatively flat.

我提到了其中的一些例子，我認為幾年後它們會變得可以混為一談，這一點會非常明顯。與過去不同的是，我們將持續發展壯大。隨著我們業務的持續成長，我們在保持成本結構不變的情況下，業務規模翻了一番。過去幾年，我們已經了解到，儘管我們實現了快速成長，但扣除客戶獲取成本後的實際支出卻有所下降，同時支出也保持相對穩定。

And you really start seeing how this generates a very, very profitable business. But that dynamic will continue to manifest with ever-greater force as we continue to grow. So when you double our business, you'll see it with greater clarity. When we 10x our business, so I would say it will be glaringly obvious.

你會逐漸明白，這能創造非常非常高的利潤。但隨著我們不斷發展壯大，這種動態將會以越來越大的力量繼續顯現。所以，當我們的業務翻倍時，你們就會更清楚地看到這一點。當我們的業務成長10倍時，我想這一點將會非常明顯。

Thank you for that detailed answers. Really helpful. I'll jump back in the queue.

感謝您如此詳細的解答。真的很有幫助。我重新排隊。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

Yaron Kinar，傑富瑞集團。

Hi, guys. Good morning. This is Charlie on for Yaron. A couple of questions. The first one on with the decision to non-renew certain CAT-exposed homeowners was that previously contemplated in guidance?

嗨，大家好。早安.這是查理替亞倫發言。幾個問題。第一個決定不為某些受災害影響的房主續保的，是之前在指導意見中考慮過的嗎？

No.

不。

Okay, thanks. And then previous able to give us CAT on prior-year development and LAE on a net basis.

好的，謝謝。然後，之前能夠提供上一年發展的 CAT 和淨額 LAE。

So the prior period development you can split into two pieces. So a 3 points favorable. It was 2 points unfavorable from a CAT perspective and 5 points favorable from a non-CAT perspective. So netting out to the three favorable.

所以，前期發展可以分成兩個部分。所以領先3分。從 CAT 考試的角度來看，這是 2 分的不利分數；從非 CAT 考試的角度來看，這是 5 分的有利分數。所以最終結果就是三個有利因素。

Okay. Sorry. And just to clarify, was that gross cash, our net CAT impact?

好的。對不起。另外，為了澄清一下，這筆現金總額是指我們的淨巨災影響嗎？

That is growth.

這就是成長。

Growth okay. And are you guys able to give it net?

增長正常。你們能提供淨值嗎？

Yes. And then that breakdown would be roughly similar on a net basis the prior period development. But total CAT impact on a net basis was about 15 points, whereas on a gross basis, it was about 17 points. LAE came in about 8%. It's been 7 points, mid-sevens edged up a little bit, but in that sort of 7% to 8% range, but by 8% quarter.

是的。那麼，從淨額來看，該細分情況與前一時期的發展大致相似。但以淨額計算，CAT 的總影響約為 15 個百分點，而以總額計算，約為 17 個百分點。LAE約為8%。已經上升了 7 分，7 分左右略有上升，但大致在 7% 到 8% 的範圍內，但一個季度上升了 8%。

Okay, great. Thanks. And then last one, if I could. Just looking at the underlying loss ratio, it looks like you know contemplating in those components, you guys saw about 22 points of underlying improvement. But if we look at the first quarter of '24 I mean year over year basis from first quarter of '23, it looks like it was relatively flat. Is there anything underlying that said you guys could provide some color on.

好的，太好了。謝謝。如果可以的話，再補充最後一個。單從基礎損失率來看，考慮到這些組成部分，你們似乎看到了大約 22 個百分點的基礎改善。但如果我們看一下 2024 年第一季度，也就是與 2023 年第一季相比，看起來相對穩定。你們能否就此提供一些細節資訊？這背後有什麼更深層的原因嗎？

Pretty distinct quarters, yeah, on a full-quarter basis it was pretty stable. I think that's really important to look at the year on year comparison from a seasonal perspective. And on a trailing 12 month basis, obviously continued significant improvement any given comparison quarters, you might see some trends that are interesting, but not necessarily indicative of the longer term trend.

各季度的情況比較明顯，但從整個季度來看，整體情況相當穩定。我認為從季節性角度進行同比比較非常重要。過去 12 個月的數據表明，在任何給定的比較季度中，都持續出現顯著改善，您可能會看到一些有趣的趨勢，但這並不一定能表明長期趨勢。

So nothing in particular to call out that was distinct between Q1 and Q2. Q2 was a really interesting quarter as it evolved really significant impacts early in the quarter and really dramatic favorable outcomes. By the end of the quarter netting out to what ended up to be a quarter that was even better, just modestly better than our expectations. So the months can be pretty unpredictable, but the quarters are a little more predictable.

所以第一季和第二季之間沒有特別明顯的差異。第二季度是一個非常有趣的季度，因為季度初產生了非常重大的影響，並且取得了非常顯著的有利結果。到季末，最終的季度業績甚至比我們預期的還要好一些，略好於我們的預期。所以，月份的狀況可能不太好預測，但季度的狀況比較容易預測。

All right. Great. Thank you, guys for the answers.

好的。偉大的。謝謝各位的解答。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

（操作說明）鮑勃·黃，摩根士丹利。

Hi, thanks for this. Just maybe just a follow up on the PYD question. 5 points of favorable on everything else, 2 points unfavorable on the cap QAD. On the 5 points, can you give us maybe a little bit more color on the geography of those like what are those 5 points coming from you possible, sorry, if I missed this a little earlier.

您好，謝謝。關於PYD的問題，或許可以補充一點。其他方面都給5分贊成，上限QAD給2分反對。關於這 5 點，您能否再詳細解釋它們的地理背景，例如這 5 點具體指的是什麼？抱歉，如果我之前錯過了。

We did not. This a little earlier, we did not. So it's a little more concentrated in the pet product, but it was distributed across some products other than home, the CATs are primarily a home dynamic and the increases driven by those really significant storms from a year ago and a bit earlier this year that have evolved, continue to evolve, but the underlying favorable development I think is really testament to the non-CAT portion of the business, which is really all the other product lines other than home.

我們沒有。早些時候，我們沒有這樣做。所以，雖然寵物產品受到的影響比較集中，但除了家居用品之外，其他一些產品也受到了影響。 CAT（颶風、災害和災害）主要影響家居用品，而一年前和今年早些時候發生的那些非常嚴重的風暴推動了增長，這種增長趨勢還在繼續。但我認為，這種有利的發展態勢真正證明了公司非CAT業務部分（即除家居用品以外的所有其他產品線）的良好表現。

Okay. So basically, cattle is unfavorable and dogs were favorable. That's thank you for that. And that's very helpful. On the other one, maybe on the LTV to CAT side, and I know that you talked about our previously kind of mentioned, LTV to CAT is about of three times. Then that would be the ratio. And then I think one thing we're trying to figure out is that you have the homeowner, non a renewal going forward is that 3 times LTV to CAT equation still holds? How should we think about that renewal impact on the LTV to CAT?

好的。所以基本上來說，牛不受歡迎，狗受歡迎。謝謝你。這很有幫助。另一方面，也許在 LTV 到 CAT 的方面，我知道你談到了我們之前提到的，LTV 到 CAT 大約是三倍。那麼，這就是比例。然後，我認為我們正在努力弄清楚的一件事是，對於房主來說，如果未來需要續保，那麼​​ 3 倍貸款價值比 (LTV) 的巨災損失公式是否仍然適用？我們該如何看待續約對LTV與CAT比率的影響？

Yes. So LTV to CAT is a is an important metric, but it's a forward metric. It's an it's based on a model. It's based on all the information we collect. It improves a little bit every day every week, every month as we go forward. And so when we acquired that business, when our models were by definition, less sophisticated than today, two, three, four years ago.

是的。因此，LTV 與 CAT 的比值是一個重要的指標，但它是一個前瞻性指標。它是基於某種模型的。這是基於我們收集的所有資訊。隨著時間的推移，它每天、每週、每月都會有所進步。因此，當我們收購那家公司時，我們的模式依定義來說，不如兩、三年前、四年前的今天那麼複雜。

We expected those to be profitable customers as we learn more in our models and our existing customer base and claims activity, invariably, and a certain portion of the customer base, their expected LTV will change.

我們預計這些客戶會成為獲利客戶，隨著我們對模型、現有客戶群和理賠活動的了解加深，不可避免地，部分客戶群的預期終身價值 (LTV) 將會發生變化。

For newly acquired customers, there is no change. So we expect customers we acquire today and tomorrow to be fully profitable. We've seen a ratio greater than three to one is a good rule of thumb, but we've seen certainly periods where it's 3.5 for 4 or more. There tends to be a little bit more pressure when you spend more.

對於新獲得的客戶，沒有任何變化。因此，我們期望今天和明天獲得的客戶都能帶來完全的獲利。我們發現，三比一的比例是一個不錯的經驗法則，但我們也確實看到 3.5 比 4 或更高的比例。消費越多，壓力往往越大。

So we're spending double today what we spent a year ago, and that tends to put downward pressure on LTV to CAT. Because but that's a good thing and we earn our way in and develop channels and we expand their spending. Overall for three to one is a good metric to think about.

因此，我們現在的支出是去年同期的兩倍，這往往會對 LTV 與 CAT 的比率造成下行壓力。因為那是一件好事，我們透過努力贏得市場，拓展管道，並擴大他們的消費。整體而言，三比一是一個值得考慮的指標。

I'll add one other comment in that area, which I think is helpful, which is LTV to CAT is kind of policy by policy focused. And if you look at our spending per net added customer, you might you might think things got more expensive for us in the quarter. And while that exact math is correct, it's important to look at IFP, net added IFP gross added IFP really is what we're acquiring, expand spend.

我還要補充一點，我認為這很有幫助，那就是 LTV 到 CAT 的衡量標準是逐項政策導向的。如果你看我們每個新增淨客戶的支出，你可能會認為我們本季的成本增加了。雖然這個具體的計算是正確的，但重要的是要看 IFP，淨增加的 IFP 和總增加的 IFP 才是我們真正獲得的，擴大支出。

And by that measure, we were actually more efficient in the second quarter than we were in the year-ago quarter and even in the prior quarter. So all around that number is stable. And that's what's enabling us to really say we're very comfortable with growth rates that are accelerating. We started out the year in the low 20s from the mid-20s, and now we're pushing towards the high 20s growth rate. And that's the core driver for them.

以此標準衡量，我們第二季的效率實際上比去年同期甚至上一季都要高。所以這個數字大致上是穩定的。正因如此，我們才能真正自信地說，我們對不斷加速的成長速度感到非常滿意。今年年初，我們的成長率在 20% 左右，而現在我們正朝著 20% 以上的成長率邁進。這就是他們的核心驅動力。

Okay. Thank you very much

好的。非常感謝

May be I'll just add (multiple speaker) comment on the color commentary, Bob as well. Help me to attack, you always wanted to be as high as possible per customer, but truly want to keep growing until you hit the marginal customer with the LTV equals Q$.

或許我也會（多位發言者）對評論環節進行點評，鮑伯也是如此。幫我進攻，你一直想讓每個客戶的收益盡可能高，但真正想持續成長，直到達到 LTV 等於 Q$ 的邊際客戶。

In other words, if you could spend a dollar and get a $1.10 instead of getting $3 that is still marginally good for the business, you're still growing profitable presence in terms of LTV calculations, take onboard the time value of money that's already factored in at a fairly robust discount rate.

換句話說，如果你花一美元得到 1.10 美元而不是得到 3 美元，這對企業來說仍然略有好處，從 LTV 計算的角度來看，你仍然在增加盈利，並且考慮到已經以相當穩健的貼現率計入的貨幣時間價值。

So while our LTV to Cactus three, that's our average, we have many higher customers and that we acquire many customers in the double digits of LTV to SAC as well, when will stop investing is when we hit the marginal customer because closer to now can eat to cake of one, we take a bit of a margin of safety. But conceptually, that is the philosophy we want to every marginally profitable customer. We want them and we will continue to grow using that.

所以，雖然我們 Cactus 的 LTV 為 3（這是我們的平均值），但我們有很多更高的客戶，我們也獲得了許多 LTV 為兩位數的客戶，當我們達到邊際客戶時，我們就會停止投資，因為現在我們只能吃一個蛋糕，所以我們要留出一些安全邊際。但從概念上講，這就是我們希望傳遞給每位利潤微薄的客戶所秉持的理念。我們需要它們，並且我們將繼續利用它們來發展壯大。

We have never deviated from that. We have never tried to acquire customers of negative LTV. And sometimes we find this confusing to some investors because in the short term, they do a customer acquisition can impact our financials negatively in the short term, the year in which you spend that cash because we are not an agent based business and we pay all or we take all our payout upfront.

我們從未偏離過這個原則。我們從未嘗試獲取客戶終身價值為負的客戶。有時我們發現這會讓一些投資者感到困惑，因為在短期內，他們獲取客戶可能會對我們的財務狀況產生負面影響，尤其是在您花費這筆現金的那一年，因為我們不是代理商業務，我們會預付或收取所有款項。

We own it back over time that when we grow sometimes it can appear to be a near term loss. But that is just the meat of the flow of time. Fundamentally, it's about spending $1 now and getting $3 back in today's terms. And if that means that in the near term, we take a hit to our EBITDA, we're okay with that, we don't take a hit to our cash because we've got a synthetic agent program in place.

隨著時間的推移，我們會逐漸收回成本，而當我們成長時，有時短期內可能會出現損失。但這只是時間長河的主要部分。從根本上講，就是現在花 1 美元，就能得到相當於今天價值 3 美元的回報。如果這意味著短期內我們的 EBITDA 會受到衝擊，我們也能接受，因為我們的現金流量不會受到影響，因為我們已經實施了合成代理計畫。

So we've neutralized the trough in terms of the cash, in terms of EBITDA, those things will work their way out during the course of the lifetime of the customer. I didn't know it because of that, we have always sought to grow customers on an LTV to CAT basis, never acquiring knowingly negative LTV business.

因此，我們已經緩解了現金流和 EBITDA 的低谷，這些問題將在客戶的生命週期中解決。正因如此，我才不知道這一點。我們一直致力於以 LTV 與 CAT 為基礎發展客戶，絕不會故意收購 LTV 為負值的業務。

Over the course of the last couple of years with inflationary pressures in others, larger swaths of the nation and of our portfolio were hard to grow in an LTV, positive environment. And we've spoken about that and we slowed our growth, which we're now accelerating and much of those segments of our business have become profitable over time.

在過去幾年裡，由於其他國家面臨通膨壓力，全國大部分地區以及我們的投資組合在 LTV 為正的環境下很難實現成長。我們已經討論過這個問題，也放慢了成長速度，現在我們正在加速成長，而且隨著時間的推移，我們業務的許多部分都實現了盈利。

As we got to rate adequacy and spoken about this, we were able to recover them back to where we thought they would be all along. What we've talked about today for the first time is that in addition to being conservative and careful and never knowingly writing negative business and proactively working to bring back into profitability and business that fell out of it and largely succeeding.

當我們對充分性進行評估並討論這個問題後，我們能夠將它們恢復到我們一直以來認為它們應該達到的水平。我們今天第一次談到的是，除了要保守謹慎，絕不故意寫負面的商業報告，還要積極努力使那些失去盈利能力的業務重新盈利，並且在很大程度上取得了成功。

We're also not tolerating business that has fallen between the cracks and we've not been able to bring back to profitability. So not only are we not writing knowingly unprofitable business as we never have. We are now not renewing such business either having in some places exhausted in the near term what rates can deliver and therefore, the philosophy is the same philosophy. The profitability focus of the business has been the same consistently, but now actually not really slowing down in places that aren't profitable, but even potentially going into reverse and pockets that don't contribute.

我們也不能容忍那些被我們忽視、無法轉虧為盈的企業。所以，我們不但不會像以往那樣，明知不營利而進行商業活動。我們現在也不再續簽這類業務，因為在某些地方，短期內利率所能帶來的收益已經耗盡，因此，我們的理念仍然是一樣的。公司的獲利重點一直保持不變，但現在實際上並沒有在不盈利的領域放慢腳步，甚至有可能出現倒退，以及在不貢獻利潤的領域放慢腳步。

And Tim's earlier comment that, yes, you may see a hit -- a potential hit of $25 million to IFP we reiterated guidance. We think we're going to manage that within the guidance already given. So we think that we're over-delivering for the year and we have that space to be able to hit guidance notwithstanding that.

提姆之前評論說，是的，你可能會看到損失——IFP可能會損失2500萬美元，我們重申了指導意見。我們認為我們可以在現有指導方針的框架內解決這個問題。所以我們認為今年的業績已經超乎預期，即便如此，我們仍有空間達成預期目標。

So you won't see a hit to the IFP, but it could have been much higher as Tim said, but we've always been focused not only on growing IFP, but in growing the total value of the book. And this really has a boon to that as Tim said, $56 million of LTV added to our business because of this decision.

所以 IFP 不會受到衝擊，但正如 Tim 所說，衝擊可能會更大，但我們一直以來不僅專注於提高 IFP，還專注於提高圖書的總價值。正如蒂姆所說，這確實帶來了好處，由於這項決定，我們的業務增加了 5,600 萬美元的客戶終身價值。

Okay. Thank you very much. Really appreciate it.

好的。非常感謝。非常感謝。

Thank you. That was our final question for today. So this does conclude today's call and thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your line.

謝謝。這是我們今天最後一個問題。今天的電話會議到此結束，感謝各位的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。