Lemonade Inc (LMND) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning or good afternoon, and welcome to today's Lemonade Q2 2025 earnings call. My name is Adam, and I'll be your operator for today. (Operator Instructions)

早安或下午好，歡迎參加今天的 Lemonade 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。我叫亞當，今天我將擔任您的接線生。（操作員指示）

I will now hand over to the Lemonade team to begin.

現在我將把時間交給 Lemonade 團隊開始。

Good morning, and welcome to Lemonade's second quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining us on our call today, we have Daniel Schreiber, CEO and Co-Founder; Shai Wininger, President and Co-Founder; Tim Bixby, Chief Financial Officer; and Nick Stead, SVP Finance.

早安，歡迎參加 Lemonade 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天參加電話會議的有執行長兼聯合創始人 Daniel Schreiber、總裁兼聯合創始人 Shai Wininger、財務長 Tim Bixby 和高級財務副總裁 Nick Stead。

A letter to shareholders covering the company's second quarter 2025 financial results is available on our Investor Relations website at lemonade.com/investor. I would like to remind you that management's remarks made on this call may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

致股東的信函涵蓋本公司2025年第二季的財務業績，請造訪我們的投資者關係網站lemonade.com/investor。我想提醒您，管理階層在本次電話會議上的言論可能包含《1995年私人證券訴訟改革法》所定義的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K filed with the SEC on February 26, 2025, and our other filings with the SEC.

由於各種重要因素，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述所示的結果有重大差異，包括我們於 2025 年 2 月 26 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表格中「風險因素」部分以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中討論的因素。

Any forward-looking statements made on this call represent our views only as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update them. We will be referring to certain non-GAAP financial measures on today's call, including adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and adjusted gross profit, which we believe may be important to investors to assess our operating performance.

本次電話會議中所做的任何前瞻性陳述僅代表我們截至今天的觀點，我們不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。我們將在今天的電話會議上參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，包括調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的自由現金流和調整後的毛利，我們認為這些指標對於投資者評估我們的經營業績可能很重要。

Reconciliations of our non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our letter to shareholders. Our letter to shareholders also includes information about our key performance indicators, including customers, in force premium, premium per customer, annual dollar retention, gross earned premium, gross loss ratio, gross loss ratio ex-CAT, trailing 12-month loss ratio and net loss ratio, and a definition of each metric why each is useful to investors and how we use each to monitor and manage our business.

我們致股東的信中包含了非公認會計準則財務指標與最直接可比較的公認會計準則財務指標的對帳。我們致股東的信中還包括有關我們關鍵績效指標的信息，包括客戶、有效保費、每位客戶保費、年度美元留存、毛保費收入、毛損失率、扣除巨災損失後的毛損失率、過去 12 個月的損失率和淨損失率，以及每個指標的定義、每個指標對投資者的用處以及我們如何使用每個指標來監控我們的業務。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Daniel for some opening remarks.

說完這些，我會把電話交給丹尼爾，請他發表一些開場白。

Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Lemonade's results for the second quarter of 2025. And it's a pleasure to report that really across all of our key metrics, our financial performance in the quarter was excellent. On the topline, we delivered our seventh consecutive quarter of IFP growth acceleration with 29% year-on-year growth.

早安，感謝您加入我們討論 Lemonade 2025 年第二季的業績。我們很高興地報告，從我們所有的關鍵指標來看，本季我們的財務表現都非常出色。整體而言，我們連續第七個季度實現 IFP 成長加速，年增 29%。

And concurrently, our gross loss ratio for the second quarter was 67%, 12 points improved relative to Q2 of last year. And this brings our trailing 12-month gross loss ratio to 70%, our best results ever and squarely within the healthy range of our business model.

同時，我們第二季的毛賠率為67%，較去年第二季改善了12個百分點。這使得我們過去 12 個月的毛損率達到 70%，這是我們有史以來最好的成績，並且完全處於我們業務模式的健康範圍內。

It is worth noting that just one year ago, our IFP was growing at 22% and our trailing 12-month gross loss ratio was 79%. And while neither metric was too shabby, 12 months on both have improved dramatically. This, I believe, is a clear testament to our ability to leverage AI to pinpoint target risks with accuracy and deliver profitable growth concurrently.

值得注意的是，僅在一年前，我們的 IFP 成長率為 22%，而過去 12 個月的毛損率為 79%。雖然這兩項指標都不算太糟糕，但 12 個月後，兩項指標都得到了顯著改善。我相信，這清楚地證明了我們有能力利用人工智慧來準確地找出目標風險並同時實現獲利成長。

As a result of these dynamics, our gross profit grew by over 100% in the second quarter, and our gross margin at 39% is among the highest we've ever recorded. And what's more, the growth of our topline eclipsed any growth in our underlying expense structure. And as a result, we saw strong adjusted free cash flow generation of $25 million, more than a tenfold increase relative to the second quarter of 2024.

由於這些動態，我們第二季的毛利成長了 100% 以上，毛利率達到 39%，是我們有史以來最高的水平之一。更重要的是，我們的營業收入成長超過了基礎支出結構的成長。因此，我們看到了強勁的調整後自由現金流，達到 2,500 萬美元，與 2024 年第二季相比成長了十倍以上。

In recent quarters, we have been highlighting Lemonade Car's progress. And in Q2, we continue to see that momentum build. Through the first half of the year, Cars' growth has significantly exceeded our original financial plan. It has now crossed $150 million of in force premium and continuing to grow.

最近幾個季度，我們一直在關注 Lemonade Car 的進展。在第二季度，我們繼續看到這種勢頭的增強。今年上半年，《汽車》的成長已大大超出了我們最初的財務計畫。目前其有效保費已超過 1.5 億美元並且持續成長。

Product enhancements have fueled conversion rate gains and geographic expansion has been another tailwind. Concurrent with that it's important to note that our Car gross loss ratio has improved dramatically, with Q2 result of 82%, marking a 13 point improvement relative to last year.

產品改進推動了轉換率的提高，而地理擴張也是另一個順風。同時，值得注意的是，我們的汽車毛賠率已大幅改善，第二季的毛賠率為 82%，比去年同期提高了 13 個百分點。

Switching gears, we recently announced the renewal of our reinsurance program at similar terms to the expiring program with one important exception, which is that we reduced the scope of our quota share program from 55% to 20%. It is worth underscoring this decision was solely of our making.

換個話題，我們最近宣布續簽我們的再保險計劃，其條款與即將到期的計劃類似，但有一個重要的例外，那就是我們將配額份額計劃的範圍從 55% 縮小到 20%。值得強調的是，這個決定完全是我們自己做出的。

The confidence to make such a move directly stems from our multiyear track record of improving loss ratios as key products and geographies have become more mature and predictable. In his remarks a bit later on this call, Tim will walk you through a couple of important related nuances on the capital efficiency and accounting.

採取此舉的信心直接源於我們多年來隨著主要產品和地理變得更加成熟和可預測而改善損失率的記錄。在稍後的電話會議上，蒂姆將向您介紹有關資本效率和會計的幾個重要相關細節。

But before that, let me hand off to Shai for an update on our European business. Shai?

但在此之前，請容許我先向 Shai 報告我們歐洲業務的最新情況。沙伊？

Thanks, Daniel. Before I get to Europe, I wanted to highlight a couple of updates to our new Investor Relations website, which can be valuable for those new to the Lemonade story. This morning, we've added an investor presentation as well as a handy spreadsheet with key financial metrics.

謝謝，丹尼爾。在我去歐洲之前，我想強調我們新投資者關係網站上的幾個更新，這對於那些剛了解 Lemonade 故事的人來說很有價值。今天早上，我們新增了一份投資人簡報以及一份包含關鍵財務指標的便利電子表格。

We hope you will find these helpful. We first launched Lemonade in Europe, in Germany in 2019, and now service over 250,000 customers across four key European markets, the UK, Netherlands, France, and Germany and two products, renters and homeowners.

我們希望這些內容對您有所幫助。我們於 2019 年在德國首次在歐洲推出 Lemonade，目前為英國、荷蘭、法國和德國四個主要歐洲市場超過 25 萬名客戶提供服務，並提供租屋者和房主兩種產品。

Europe is of growing importance for a few reasons. It yields a diversification benefit to our growth with notably lower CAT exposure and a flexible regulatory environment. In the past few quarters, we've really seen our European business come into its own and is now a meaningful driver of growth for the organization.

由於一些原因，歐洲的重要性日益增加。它為我們的成長帶來了多元化效益，顯著降低了 CAT 風險敞口，並帶來了靈活的監管環境。在過去的幾個季度中，我們確實看到我們的歐洲業務發揮了重要作用，現在已成為公司成長的重要推動力。

We concluded Q2 with $43 million Europe IFP, which represents over 200% growth, our eighth consecutive quarter of triple-digit growth and our fourth consecutive quarter of growth rate acceleration. I'm pleased to report that the story in Europe is very similar to what Daniel highlighted in our Car business.

我們在第二季結束時獲得了 4,300 萬美元的歐洲 IFP，這代表著超過 200% 的成長，這是我們連續第八個季度實現三位數成長，也是我們連續第四個季度實現成長率加速。我很高興地報告，歐洲的情況與丹尼爾在我們的汽車業務中強調的情況非常相似。

Growth acceleration has been paired with improvement in underwriting performance. We saw an 83% gross loss ratio in the second quarter, 15% improved relative to last year and roughly 20 points better than where our US business was at a similar scale. This performance is powered by structural cost advantages driven by our AI platform. One great example of this is a technology we call LoCo, our LLM-first no-code insurance application builder.

成長加速與承保績效的改善相伴而生。我們第二季的毛損率為 83%，比去年同期改善了 15%，比我們美國同等規模的業務改善了約 20 個百分點。這一業績得益於我們的人工智慧平台所驅動的結構性成本優勢。一個很好的例子就是我們稱為 LoCo 的技術，這是我們的 LLM 首個無代碼保險應用程式建構器。

With LoCo, we can rapidly build new products, launch new regions, iterate on pricing and underwriting, and experiment with various dynamic experiences all in hours instead of weeks and without touching any code. LoCo is a powerful platform that enables us to manage our multi-continent insurance company with unmatched efficiency.

借助 LoCo，我們可以快速建立新產品、推出新區域、迭代定價和承保，並嘗試各種動態體驗，所有這些都只需幾小時（而不是幾週）的時間，而且無需接觸任何程式碼。LoCo 是一個強大的平台，使我們能夠以無與倫比的效率管理我們的跨洲保險公司。

Where our competitors have large local teams on the ground in the regions they operate and with each region having its own specific legacy infrastructure, our proprietary technology enables us to expand our geographical footprint with unmatched velocity and limited incremental overhead.

我們的競爭對手在其經營的地區擁有龐大的本地團隊，並且每個地區都有自己特定的傳統基礎設施，而我們的專有技術使我們能夠以無與倫比的速度和有限的增量開銷擴大我們的地理覆蓋範圍。

We are clearly in the early innings of our European journey at Lemonade, but believe Europe is positioned to remain a key engine of rapid profitable growth for years to come.

顯然，Lemonade 的歐洲之旅才剛開始，但我們相信，歐洲在未來幾年內仍將是快速獲利成長的關鍵引擎。

With that, I'll hand it off to Tim, who will cover our financial performance and outlook.

說完這些，我將把話題交給提姆，他將負責我們的財務表現和前景。

Great. Thanks, Shai. I'll review highlights of our Q2 results and provide our expectations for Q3 and the full year 2025, and then we'll take some questions. In short, our Q2 financial results were exemplary across the board. We remain very much on track with our ambitious goals for positive EBITDA by the end of next year, loss ratio tracking to target, consistently accelerating topline growth with little change in fixed overhead expenses and favorable cash flow dynamics.

偉大的。謝謝，Shai。我將回顧我們第二季業績的亮點，並提供我們對第三季和 2025 年全年的預期，然後我們將回答一些問題。簡而言之，我們第二季的財務表現全面堪稱典範。我們仍將按照雄心勃勃的目標穩步前進，即到明年年底實現 EBITDA 為正，損失率達到目標，在固定間接費用幾乎沒有變化和現金流動態良好的情況下持續加速營收成長。

In force premium grew 29% to just above $1 billion, while customer count increased by 24% to 2.7 million. Premium per customer increased 4% versus the prior year to $402, driven primarily by rate increases. Annual dollar retention or ADR was 84%, flat as compared to the prior quarter, and continuing to show modest downward pressure as a result of our continuing effort to improve the profitability of our home book through targeted non-renewals.

有效保費成長 29%，達到略高於 10 億美元，而客戶數量成長 24%，達到 270 萬。每位客戶的保費較上年同期增加 4% 至 402 美元，主要受費率上漲的影響。年度美元保留率或 ADR 為 84%，與上一季度持平，並且由於我們繼續努力通過有針對性的不續約來提高國內賬簿的盈利能力，因此繼續顯示出適度的下行壓力。

We expect ADR to normalize and resume improvement over the coming quarters. Gross earned premium in Q2 increased 26% as compared to the prior year to $252 million, in line with IFP growth. Revenue in Q2 increased 35% from the prior year to $164 million.

我們預計 ADR 將在未來幾季內恢復正常並恢復改善。第二季的總保費收入較上年同期成長 26%，達到 2.52 億美元，與 IFP 成長一致。第二季營收較上年同期成長 35%，達到 1.64 億美元。

The growth in revenue was driven by the increase in gross earned premium, a slightly higher effective ceding commission rate under our quota share reinsurance and a 16% increase in investment income.

收入的成長得益於總保費收入的增加、我們的份額再保險下實際分保佣金率的略高以及投資收入的增長 16%。

Our gross loss ratio was 67% for Q2 as compared to 79% in Q2 2024 and 94% in Q2 2023. Excluding the total impact of CATs in Q2, roughly 7 percentage points, our gross loss ratio ex-CAT was 60%. Total gross prior period development had a roughly 3% favorable impact, 5% from non-CAT, offset by 2% unfavorable from CAT.

我們第二季的毛損率為 67%，而 2024 年第二季為 79%，2023 年第二季為 94%。排除第二季巨災事件的整體影響（約 7 個百分點）後，我們的巨災事件前總損失率為 60%。前期總發展產生了約 3% 的有利影響，其中 5% 來自非 CAT，而 2% 則被 CAT 的不利影響所抵消。

We saw this favorable prior period development across all products, with the exception of Pet, with the largest impact in our homeowners multi-peril business. On a net basis, prior period development was in line with gross, including non-CAT and CAT breakdown. Prior year development, which is reported on a net basis was about $2.2 million favorable in the quarter and about $12.6 million favorable year-to-date.

我們看到，除寵物險外，所有產品在前期都呈現了良好的發展勢頭，其中對我們的房主多重風險業務影響最大的是寵物險。從淨額來看，前期發展與總額一致，包括非 CAT 和 CAT 細目。以淨額計算，去年同期的發展在本季約為 220 萬美元，年初至今約為 1,260 萬美元。

Trailing 12 months or TTM loss ratio was about 70%, or 9 points better year-on-year. All of these insurance metrics and more are included in our insurance supplement that you'll find at the end of our shareholder letter.

過去 12 個月或 TTM 損失率約為 70%，較去年同期下降 9 個百分點。所有這些保險指標以及更多內容都包含在我們的保險補充文件中，您可以在股東信的末尾找到。

Gross profit increased 109% as compared to the prior year, while adjusted gross profit increased 96%, both driven primarily by premium growth and significant loss ratio improvement. Operating expenses, excluding loss and loss adjustment expense, increased 21% to $129 million in Q2 as compared to the prior year, driven primarily by an increase in gross spend and the impact of the $12 million onetime benefit from a tax refund.

毛利較上年增長 109%，調整後毛利成長 96%，主要得益於保費成長和損失率的大幅改善。第二季的營運費用（不包括損失和損失調整費用）與去年同期相比增加了 21%，達到 1.29 億美元，這主要受到總支出增加以及 1,200 萬美元一次性退稅收益的影響。

Other insurance expense grew 14% in Q2 versus the prior year at roughly half the growth rate of earned premium. Total sales and marketing expense increased by $23 million or 62%, primarily due to increase in growth spend of approximately $24 million. Total growth spend in the quarter was $50 million, roughly double the $26 million in the prior year quarter.

其他保險費用在第二季較上年同期成長了 14%，約為已賺保費成長率的一半。總銷售和行銷費用增加了 2,300 萬美元，即 62%，主要原因是成長支出增加了約 2,400 萬美元。本季總成長支出為 5,000 萬美元，約為去年同期 2,600 萬美元的兩倍。

We continue to utilize our synthetic agents growth funding program and have continued to finance 80% of our growth spend. As a reminder, you'll see 100% of our growth spend flow through the P&L, while the impact of the growth mechanism is visible on the cash flow statement and the balance sheet. And our net financing to date is about $124 million as of June 30.

我們繼續利用我們的合成劑成長融資計劃，並繼續為我們 80% 的成長支出提供融資。提醒一下，您會看到我們的 100% 成長支出流經損益表，而成長機制的影響在現金流量表和資產負債表上可見。截至 6 月 30 日，我們的淨融資額約為 1.24 億美元。

Technology development expense was up just 6% year-on-year to $22 million, while G&A expense decreased 13% as compared to the prior year to $22 million, primarily due to a onetime tax refund of about $12 million.

技術開發費用年減 6% 至 2,200 萬美元，而一般及行政費用較前一年下降 13% 至 2,200 萬美元，主要原因是一次性退稅約 1,200 萬美元。

Personnel expense and headcount control continue to be a high priority. Total headcount is up slightly about 5% as compared to the prior year at 1,274, while the topline FP grew fully 29%. Net loss was $44 million in Q2 or a loss of about $0.60 per share as compared to a net loss of $57 million or $0.81 per share in the prior year.

人事費用和員工人數控制仍然是首要任務。總員工人數與前一年的 1,274 人相比略有增加，約 5%，而營業收入則增加了 29%。第二季淨虧損為 4,400 萬美元，即每股虧損約 0.60 美元，而去年同期淨虧損為 5,700 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.81 美元。

Our adjusted EBITDA loss was $41 million in Q2 versus $43 million in the prior year. Our total cash, cash equivalents and investments ended the quarter at approximately $1.03 billion, up $11 million versus year end 2024. With these metrics in mind, I'll outline our specific financial expectations for the third quarter and the full year.

我們第二季的調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 4,100 萬美元，而去年同期為 4,300 萬美元。本季末，我們的現金、現金等價物和投資總額約為 10.3 億美元，比 2024 年底增加 1,100 萬美元。考慮到這些指標，我將概述我們對第三季和全年的具體財務預期。

From a gross spend perspective, we expect to invest roughly $47 million in Q3 to generate profitable customers with a healthy lifetime value. We expect Q4 spend at a level similar to the Q1 rate and thus totaling roughly $173 million for the full year. This expected quarterly spend pattern is similar to prior years.

從總支出角度來看，我們預計在第三季投資約 4,700 萬美元，以創造具有健康終身價值的獲利客戶。我們預計第四季度的支出水準與第一季相似，因此全年總額約為 1.73 億美元。預計本季支出模式與前幾年類似。

For the third quarter of 2025, we expect in force premium at September 30 of between $1.144 billion and $1.147 billion, gross earned premium of $267 million to $269 million, revenue between $183 million and $186 million and an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $37 million and $34 million.

對於 2025 年第三季度，我們預計 9 月 30 日的有效保費將在 11.44 億美元至 11.47 億美元之間，毛保費將在 2.67 億美元至 2.69 億美元之間，收入將在 1.83 億美元至 1.86 億美元至 2.69 億美元之間，收入將在 1.83 億美元至 1.86 億美元之間，調整後的 30 萬美元。

Stock-based compensation expense, we expect to be approximately $17 million and a weighted average share count of approximately 74 million shares. For the full year, we expect in force premium at December 31 of between $1.213 billion and $1.218 billion, gross earned premium between $1.036 billion and $1.039 billion, revenue between $710 million and $715 million, and an adjusted EBITDA loss between $140 million and $135 million.

我們預計股票薪酬費用約為 1,700 萬美元，加權平均股數約為 7,400 萬股。就全年而言，我們預計 12 月 31 日的有效保費將在 12.13 億美元至 12.18 億美元之間，毛保費將在 10.36 億美元至 10.39 億美元至 12.18 億美元之間，毛保費將在 10.36 億美元至 10.39 億美元之間，收入將在 7.1 億美元至 7.15 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 收入將在 7.1 億美元至 7.15 億美元之間，調整後的 EBITDA 收入將在 1.4 億美元之間虧損。

Stock-based compensation for the full year, we expect to be approximately $61 million and a weighted average share count for the full year of approximately 74 million shares.

我們預計全年股票薪酬約為 6,100 萬美元，全年加權平均股數約為 7,400 萬股。

Finally, I wanted to make a couple of comments on the reinsurance transition as a follow-up to Daniel's earlier remarks. First, the transition from 55% to 20% quota share does not happen overnight. Each program is risk attaching, which means it covers policies written between July 2025 and June 2026, such that we expect the transition to unfold over several quarters on our P&L in a roughly linear fashion.

最後，我想就再保險轉型發表一些評論，作為丹尼爾先前言論的後續。首先，從55%到20%的配額份額的轉變並非一朝一夕就能實現的。每個計劃都帶有風險，這意味著它涵蓋了 2025 年 7 月至 2026 年 6 月期間制定的政策，因此我們預計過渡將在幾個季度內以大致線性的方式在我們的損益表中展開。

By Q3 2026, we expect to be ceding roughly 20% of premium. And in the second half of 2025, we expect to cede roughly 45% due to those transition dynamics. Second, a reduction in our quota share program does increase our revenue retention but has no impact on IFP. As a result, we are about to enter a period during which revenue growth rates are expected to outpace IFP growth rates.

到 2026 年第三季度，我們預計將放棄約 20% 的保費。到 2025 年下半年，我們預計由於這些轉型動態，這一比例將下降約 45%。其次，減少我們的配額份額計劃確實會增加我們的收入保留，但對 IFP 沒有影響。因此，我們即將進入一個營收成長率預計將超過 IFP 成長率的時期。

And finally, all else equal, less quota share increases regulatory capital needs. However, with an improved loss ratio and the expanded use of our wholly owned captive, we are able to offset these pressures such that there is no material change in our capital planning. We have included a slide within the insurance supplement to our Q2 shareholder letter that covers some of these dynamics in a bit more detail.

最後，在其他條件相同的情況下，較低的配額份額會增加監管資本需求。然而，隨著損失率的改善和我們全資自保公司的擴大使用，我們能夠抵消這些壓力，從而使我們的資本規劃不會發生重大變化。我們在第二季股東信的保險補充資料中附加了一張投影片，其中更詳細地介紹了其中的一些動態。

With that, I would like to pass over to Nick to answer some questions for our retail investors. Nick?

接下來，我想請尼克來回答我們散戶的一些問題。缺口？

Thanks, Tim. We'll now turn to our shareholders' questions submitted through the Say platform. [Paper Bag] asked, what is your plan with synthetic agents going forward? Will you continue using synthetic agent funding in 2026 and beyond or stop at the end of 2025? Great question.

謝謝，蒂姆。現在我們來回答股東透過 Say 平台提交的問題。 [Paper Bag] 問：你們未來對合成劑有什麼計畫？您會在 2026 年及以後繼續使用合成代理資金還是在 2025 年底停止使用？好問題。

Thanks, Paper Bag. The synthetic agents program has worked precisely as intended when we launched it nearly two years ago and has enabled us to drive growth acceleration in a capital-light manner. In 2023, we deployed $55 million on growth.

謝謝，紙袋。合成劑計劃在我們近兩年前啟動時就發揮了預期的作用，使我們能夠以輕資本的方式推動成長加速。2023 年，我們部署了 5,500 萬美元用於成長。

In 2025, we expect to more than triple our total growth spend to $170 million now with an 80% advance from our synthetic agents. And while we do pay our synthetic agent a 16% IRR, the impact on our unit economics is transformational.

到 2025 年，我們預計總成長支出將增加兩倍以上，達到 1.7 億美元，其中 80% 的成長來自合成劑。雖然我們確實向合成劑支付了 16% 的 IRR，但這對我們的單位經濟的影響是變革性的。

The IRR on our growth spend is around 50% without the synthetic agent, and that doubles to roughly 100% with the partnership in place. There is a model live on our Investor Relations site posted alongside the materials from our 2024 Investor Day that covers these mechanics in more detail.

在沒有合成劑的情況下，我們成長支出的內部報酬率 (IRR) 約為 50%，而建立合作關係後，比率將翻一番，達到約 100%。我們的投資者關係網站上有一個即時模型，與 2024 年投資者日的資料一起發布，其中更詳細地介紹了這些機制。

The net impact of inflows and outflows to and from the synthetic agent leaves us with $124 million outstanding on the balance sheet at the end of the second quarter. We have already announced the 2026 renewal of our synthetic agent agreement with another $200 million of capital available to fund growth investment in 2026. At each renewal, we evaluate all strategic options available to us and we'll continue to do so. But in the near and medium term, we expect to continue to expand this partnership.

合成劑流入和流出的淨影響導致我們第二季末的資產負債表上未償還金額為 1.24 億美元。我們已經宣布續簽 2026 年合成劑協議，並將額外提供 2 億美元資金用於 2026 年的成長投資。每次續約時，我們都會評估所有可用的策略選擇，並且我們將繼續這樣做。但在近期和中期內，我們預計將繼續擴大這種夥伴關係。

Emmanuel asked, what is the largest impediment right now, stopping Lemonade from releasing Car to more states? We are currently live with our Car product in 10 states and address roughly 50% of the U.S. car insurance market, a vast market opportunity relative to our current scale. That has been increasing with two state launches, Colorado and Indiana, in the past few months.

伊曼紐爾問道，目前阻止 Lemonade 將 Car 推向更多州的最大障礙是什麼？目前，我們的汽車產品已覆蓋 10 個州，佔據美國汽車保險市場約 50% 的份額，相對於我們目前的規模而言，這是一個巨大的市場機會。過去幾個月，隨著科羅拉多州和印第安納州兩個州的啟動，這一數字還在增加。

We have plans to continue to increase our nationwide coverage and expect to launch multiple additional states through the end of 2026, such that our 50% coverage metric is notably increased. As we look to the state launch road map, several factors guide us.

我們計劃繼續擴大我們的全國覆蓋範圍，並預計到 2026 年底將涵蓋多個其他州，以便我們的 50% 覆蓋率指標將顯著提高。當我們審視國家啟動路線圖時，有幾個因素可以引導我們。

We evaluate the market opportunity, existing Lemonade customer penetration and the regulatory landscape. Also, new state launches typically involve higher loss ratios as getting a new state online requires rate adjustments post launch and naturally brings a new business penalty impact. So we manage that strategically as well.

我們評估市場機會、現有 Lemonade 客戶滲透率和監管環境。此外，新州的推出通常涉及更高的損失率，因為新州的上線需要在推出後進行費率調整，並且自然會帶來新業務的懲罰影響。因此我們也從策略上管理這一點。

I should note that at most other insurance companies, it takes considerable internal resources to launch a new state. But with LoCo, as Shai covered earlier in his remarks, we have substantially reduced the amount of work required by our insurance and product teams to do so, allowing our teams to shift to more impactful initiatives while maintaining our targeted pace of state launches.

我應該指出，在大多數其他保險公司，推出新業務需要大量的內部資源。但正如 Shai 之前在演講中提到的那樣，有了 LoCo，我們大大減少了保險和產品團隊所需的工作量，使我們的團隊能夠轉向更有影響力的舉措，同時保持我們在州內推出計劃的目標速度。

Emmanuel also asked, does the team believe that even with all of the developments in AI that they are ahead of other AI-first companies in terms of the effectiveness and efficiency of the models? Well, the short answer is yes, we do think so. And you're right, Emmanuel, to focus on AI-first companies as we believe the gap between us and incumbent insurers who are built on legacy systems is very likely to expand as AI development accelerates.

Emmanuel 也問道，團隊是否認為，即使人工智慧取得了所有這些發展，他們在模型的有效性和效率方面仍然領先於其他以人工智慧為先的公司？嗯，簡短的回答是肯定的，我們確實這麼認為。伊曼紐爾，你說得對，我們應該關注人工智慧優先的公司，因為我們相信，隨著人工智慧發展的加速，我們與建立在傳統系統上的現有保險公司之間的差距很可能會擴大。

We have been AI native since day one. Relative to new upstarts, that 10 years in market gives us a real data edge, thousands of AB tests, 10 million driving trips, millions of customer interactions and claims. When it comes to data, there's really no shortcut to that type of depth and scale.

從第一天起，我們就已經成為人工智慧的原住民。相對於新興企業，10 年的市場經驗為我們帶來了真正的數據優勢：數千次 AB 測試、1000 萬次駕駛行程、數百萬次客戶互動和索賠。當談到數據時，要達到這種深度和規模確實沒有捷徑。

By the time generative AI really accelerated in 2023 and onwards, we already had AI embedded across the tech stack with terabytes of proprietary data flowing through the system. We stand apart from incumbents with a single AI system that connects every aspect of the business and from upstarts with the depth and breadth of proprietary data that feeds it.

到 2023 年及以後生成式人工智慧真正加速發展時，我們已經將人工智慧嵌入整個技術堆疊中，並且有數 TB 的專有資料在系統中流動。我們憑藉連接業務各個方面的單一人工智慧系統與現有企業脫穎而出，同時憑藉為其提供支援的專有數據的深度和廣度與新興企業脫穎而出。

So we believe we're really the only full stack multiline insurance company with the tech stack and data to fully capture AI's potential. And this is playing out in our business outcomes. Our proprietary telematics pricing model now outperforms the off-the-shelf product that many competitors rely on.

因此，我們相信我們確實是唯一一家擁有技術堆疊和數據來充分挖掘人工智慧潛力的全端多線保險公司。這正在體現在我們的業務成果中。我們專有的遠端資訊處理定價模式現在優於許多競爭對手所依賴的現成產品。

And over the last two years, our overall gross loss ratio improved by 27 points, while IFP grew by nearly 60% during the same period, clear evidence that our AI flywheel advantage is compounding. For additional reading on this, I suggest you check out Daniel's recent Lemonade Turns 10 blog post and the investor presentation just posted to our Investor Relations site this morning to learn more about how AI drives our business performance.

在過去兩年中，我們的整體毛損率改善了 27 個百分點，而同期 IFP 成長了近 60%，這清楚地證明了我們的 AI 飛輪優勢正在不斷增強。如需進一步了解這方面內容，我建議您查看 Daniel 最近的 Lemonade Turns 10 部落格文章以及今天早上剛發佈到我們的投資者關係網站的投資者演示文稿，以了解有關 AI 如何推動我們的業務績效的更多信息。

With that, I'll pass it over to the moderator, and Daniel and Tim will take some questions from the Street.

說完這些，我會把話題交給主持人，丹尼爾和提姆將回答華爾街的一些問題。

(Operator Instructions) Jason Helfstein, Oppenheimer.

（操作員指示）Jason Helfstein，奧本海默。

Thanks. Just a few questions around the reinsurance and the reinsurance change because I know a lot of clients have some questions there. So obviously, you're holding more risk, but there is no free lunch. Maybe just talk a little more about the structures you have in place, the way you can manage risk and if there's ways how you manage -- just the different ways that you can now manage the risk.

謝謝。我只想問一些有關再保險和再保險變更的問題，因為我知道很多客戶對此都有一些疑問。因此顯然你承擔了更大的風險，但沒有免費的午餐。也許只是多談一點您現有的結構、您管理風險的方式以及您管理風險的方法——您現在可以管理風險的不同方式。

And then there's like a follow-up to that, does this reflect some kind of step function in the company's ability to manage risk? So like why now, I guess, is the question, right? So first is, structurally, how you plan on managing it going forward as this evolves? Two, why now? And then I guess the third is you did say revenue will outpace IFP, especially through this transition. But how should we think about gross profit relative to IFP growth? Thank you.

那麼接下來的問題是，這是否反映了公司管理風險的能力的某種階梯函數？所以我想，現在的問題是為什麼，對吧？那麼首先，從結構上來說，隨著事態的發展，您計劃如何管理它？二、為什麼是現在？然後我想第三點是您確實說過收入將超過 IFP，特別是透過這種轉變。但是我們應該如何看待毛利相對於 IFP 成長呢？謝謝。

Hey, Jason. Good morning. It is a significant change. I guess the only constant here that we've been, every couple of years, stepping down the amount of quota share reinsurance since IPO from 75% down to 55%, now to 20%. So in that sense, it's a continuation. But nevertheless, a drop from 55% to 20% is significant, and I think worth spending another few minutes on.

嘿，傑森。早安.這是一個重大的改變。我想，我們唯一不變的是，自首次公開募股以來，每隔幾年，我們就會將配額再保險的比例從 75% 降至 55%，現在降至 20%。從這個意義上來說，這是一種延續。但儘管如此，從 55% 下降到 20% 還是很顯著的，我認為值得再花幾分鐘。

The first thing that I'd highlight though, and then I will hand over to Tim to add a bit more color on some of these points, but quota share for us was not predominantly about risk management at all. We can use reinsurance to serve different goals. We have actually other policies in place that do manage risk concentration.

不過，我首先要強調的是，然後我會交給提姆來對這些觀點進行更詳細的闡述，但對我們來說，配額份額主要與風險管理無關。我們可以利用再保險來實現不同的目標。我們實際上已經制定了其他政策來管理風險集中。

So you see when a CAT hits, for example, like the one that hit in Q1 in the California fires, and you saw that our gross loss ratio was much worse than our net loss ratio. That wasn't the quota share that was helping. Quota share, in theory, will produce very similar gross and net loss ratios because you cede X percent of premiums and you cede the same X percent of claims.

因此，當發生重大自然災害（CAT）時，例如第一季發生的加州火災，我們的總損失率比淨損失率高得多。這並不是配額份額帶來的幫助。理論上，配額份額將產生非常相似的總損失率和淨損失率，因為您放棄 X % 的保費，並且您放棄相同的 X % 的索賠。

At first approximation, the gross and the net should be similar. If anything, because some CAT events are excluded from the quota share agreement, you might see slightly worse net than gross loss ratios in quota share.

乍一看，總額和淨額應該相似。如果有的話，由於一些 CAT 事件被排除在配額份額協議之外，您可能會看到配額份額中的淨損失率略低於總損失率。

In fact, we saw significantly better net loss ratios, and that was because of other policies that we have in place about risk concentration covering losses beyond a certain dollar amount or too many losses in a particular quadrant or something like that. So we have various policies. Those continue.

事實上，我們的淨損失率明顯改善，這是因為我們實施了其他有關風險集中的政策，涵蓋超過一定金額的損失或特定象限的過多損失等。所以我們有各種政策。這些還在繼續。

The policies that we have in place that are helping us protect against risk concentration are not being materially changed. Quota share was in place, as I say, not predominantly as a tool of risk management, but much more so as a tool for capital management.

我們現有的幫助我們防範風險集中的政策並沒有實質的改變。正如我所說，配額份額的主要作用並不是作為風險管理工具，而更多的是作為資本管理工具。

The regulators require that we set aside a certain percentage of our premiums. There's kind of a rule of thumb of 3:1. But when the insurance entities are fast growing and loss-making, it can be more cumbersome still. And once you cede those premiums to quota share partners, it is really their capital rather than yours and their cost of capital are lower. So we saw quota share predominantly as a tool for managing that aspect of our business, remaining capital-light through quota share.

監理機關要求我們留出一定比例的保費。有一條經驗法則：3:1。但當保險實體快速成長且出現虧損時，這可能會變得更加麻煩。一旦你將這些溢價轉讓給配額合夥人，這實際上就是他們的資本而不是你的資本，而且他們的資本成本較低。因此，我們主要將配額份額視為管理業務方面的一種工具，透過配額份額保持輕資本。

As the last few quarters came in and we have consistently lowered and stabilized our trailing 12-month loss ratio, I mean 67% this past quarter, trailing 12 months, which I think is the more dependable metric, if you like, less volatile, less given to the vicissitudes of a particular event. 70% trailing 12-month loss ratio is simply fantastic and perfectly aligned with our long-term goals.

進入最近幾個季度，我們一直在降低並穩定過去 12 個月的損失率，我的意思是，過去 12 個月的損失率在過去這個季度為 67%，我認為這是更可靠的指標，波動性更小，不太受特定事件的影響。過去 12 個月 70% 的損失率簡直太棒了，與我們的長期目標完全一致。

And what that has meant is that our insurance entities have moved from being loss-making to profit-making. Rather than consuming capital, they are generating capital. And that is something that changed over the course of the last few quarters as we indeed became cash flow positive, we reported a $25 million adjusted cash flow this past quarter, a tenfold increase year-on-year.

這意味著我們的保險實體已經從虧損轉為獲利。他們不是在消耗資本，而是在創造資本。而這種情況在過去幾個季度中發生了變化，我們的現金流確實變為正值，我們報告稱上個季度的調整後現金流為 2500 萬美元，同比增長了十倍。

It is that more than anything else that's allowing us to take on board less or to utilize less quota share reinsurance. And of course, our quota share partners have been stellar. They've been amazing. They've been with us from the get-go. They are the biggest and most trusted names in the industry. But as you say, no free lunches. When you engage in quota share reinsurance, you are really margin stacking. You are giving up part of your business. You're getting the gains that I outlined before, predominantly capital efficiency, but you are sacrificing some of your EBITDA.

正是這一點比其他任何事情都更能讓我們減少接受或利用配額再保險。當然，我們的配額合作夥伴也非常出色。他們真是太棒了。他們從一開始就和我們在一起。他們是業界最大、最值得信賴的品牌。但正如你所說，沒有免費的午餐。當您參與份額再保險時，您實際上是在累積保證金。您正在放棄部分業務。您將獲得我之前概述的收益，主要是資本效率，但您卻犧牲了部分 EBITDA。

And you really want to use, or we really want to use as little of that as we need given our capital requirements. So that more than anything else is what's changed. We've moved from being businesses that are draining cash to those that are generating cash. Low loss ratios have changed the capital requirements significantly in those entities, and that is what is allowing us to be less dependent on quota share, and we made those adjustments.

而且您確實想使用，或者我們確實想根據我們的資本需求盡可能少使用。因此，這比其他任何事情都更能改變我們。我們已經從消耗現金的企業轉變為創造現金的企業。低損失率極大地改變了這些實體的資本要求，這使得我們不再依賴配額份額，因此我們做出了這些調整。

Tim, anything you want to add?

提姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah. Just a couple of points on the second part of your question, Jason. One of note is that before we even get to our reinsurance structure, we do take advantage of one of our assets, which is our ability to grow at a very healthy clip, but be very selective about the risks that we take in the business that we write.

是的。傑森，關於你問題的第二部分，我只想說幾點。值得注意的是，在我們建立再保險結構之前，我們確實利用了我們的一項資產，即我們以非常健康的速度增長的能力，但對我們承保的業務中承擔的風險非常有選擇性。

And so, in some ways, we enforce our own level of reinsurance by writing in certain areas of risk and not writing in others. Our risk in Florida, for example, is quite limited relative to a typical incumbent. Our experience in the California fire CAT of Q1 before we even got to reinsurance, relatively limited because we're choosy about the level of risk we take in terms of high-value homes.

因此，從某種程度上來說，我們透過在某些風險領域進行承保，而在其他風險領域不承保，來強制執行我們自己的再保險水準。例如，與典型的現任者相比，我們在佛羅裡達州的風險相當有限。在我們進入再保險領域之前，我們在第一季的加州火災 CAT 方面的經驗相對有限，因為我們對高價值房屋承擔的風險水平很挑剔。

And so, that's a layer that underpins our reinsurance. Then we layer on reinsurance, of course. The bulk of the reinsurance structure at renewal remains unchanged. The quota share change in terms of its cede ratio was notable.

所以，這是我們再保險的基礎層。當然，我們還會進行再保險。續保時再保險結構的大部分保持不變。就其割讓比例而言，配額份額的變化十分顯著。

Everything else is more or less in place and continuing. So we have protection against concentrated losses. We have protection against single large losses in our PPR and our FC coverage, and those continue and were renewed at similar structural impact as in the past.

其餘一切或多或少都已到位並正在繼續。因此我們可以防止集中損失。我們在 PPR 和 FC 覆蓋範圍內對單筆巨額損失提供了保護，這些損失將繼續存在，並將以與過去類似的結構性影響得到更新。

With regard to the impact on gross profit and revenue, a couple of things. We included a pretty straightforward example of what $1,000 of premium would look like under the old structure and now under the new structure and how it flows through each of the key P&L line items.

關於對毛利和收入的影響，有幾點。我們提供了一個非常簡單的例子，說明 1,000 美元的保費在舊結構下和現在的新結構下會是什麼樣子，以及它如何流經每個關鍵的損益項目。

I would urge you to kind of look at that in the back of the shareholder letter today. And I think that will be helpful to navigate how the model is expected to evolve, particularly over the coming four quarters as the change in the ceding ratio comes more into play.

我建議您今天看一下股東信函的背面。我認為這將有助於了解模型的預期發展方式，特別是在未來四個季度，因為轉讓率的變化將發揮更大的作用。

At a very high level, the impact on revenue is greater than the impact on gross profit. Gross profit for many quarters has grown at a very healthy clip, well ahead of the topline growth of IFP and premium, and that's because you're combining two elements there. You're combining the benefit of growth as well as the benefit of significant loss ratio improvement.

從非常高的層面來看，對收入的影響大於對毛利的影響。多個季度的毛利都以非常健康的速度增長，遠遠超過 IFP 和 premium 的營收成長，這是因為你將兩個要素結合在一起。您既獲得了成長的益處，也獲得了損失率顯著改善的益處。

And so, those dynamics will continue, but our loss ratio now that it's nicely in our target range, those shifts will be somewhat less than they have been over the past few years, and that's good news. Revenue, on the other hand, will be a little more -- will grow at a faster pace, again, as the reinsurance change rolls in. And again, you should see those dynamics in the example that we shared.

因此，這些動態將會持續下去，但現在我們的損失率已經完全處於我們的目標範圍內，這些變化將比過去幾年有所減少，這是個好消息。另一方面，隨著再保險改革的推進，收入將會略有增加，並且成長速度會更快。再次強調，您應該在我們分享的範例中看到這些動態。

Tommy McJoynt, KBW.

湯米·麥克喬伊特，KBW。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for questions. Maybe to simplify the previous question in response, Tim. I think a couple of years ago, you guys put out a slide, an illustrative slide showing the premium leverage that you could write at. Do you have an update on what premium leverage on a gross basis you can write at and then how that changes under this new reinsurance structure?

嘿，大家早安。感謝您的提問。也許是為了簡化前面的問題，提姆。我想幾年前，你們放出了一張幻燈片，一張說明性的幻燈片，展示了你們可以寫入的溢價槓桿。您是否了解在總額基礎上可以寫入的保費槓桿的最新情況，以及在新的再保險結構下保費槓桿將如何變化？

Sure. I think you're referring to some comments we've made from time to time regarding the capital surplus requirements relative to the premium we can write. Is that the crux of the question, I think?

當然。我認為您指的是我們不時就與我們可以寫的保費相關的資本盈餘要求所發表的一些評論。我認為這就是問題的關鍵嗎？

That's right.

這是正確的。

So you're correct to trace the history a bit. When we shifted to a more material quota share reinsurance structure several years ago, one of the primary benefits, as Daniel noted, was a capital surplus benefit. Since then, a few things have happened. Our volatility has decreased. Our trailing 12 months loss ratio has come very much in line with our long-term targets.

所以你追溯一下歷史是正確的。幾年前，當我們轉向更實質的配額份額再保險結構時，正如丹尼爾所指出的，主要好處之一就是資本盈餘收益。從那時起，發生了一些事情。我們的波動性已經降低。我們過去 12 個月的損失率與我們的長期目標非常一致。

Our book is much more diverse. And we've put in place a couple of structural aids to captive reinsurers that are wholly owned or partially owned that we can now leverage and the net of all that is our capital planning is substantially unchanged. How much of that capital surplus benefit we get from quota share versus our own captive entities has shifted somewhat.

我們的書更加豐富多彩。我們已經為全資或部分擁有的自保再保險公司提供了一些結構性援助，現在我們可以利用這些援助，而我們的資本規劃淨額基本上沒有變化。我們從配額份額與我們自己的專屬實體獲得的資本盈餘收益有多少已經發生了一些變化。

And so, some of the surplus benefit that we give up as a result of the quota share shift, we get to retain more profit, we're able to replace that essentially in whole through our captive reinsurer or captive structures.

因此，我們因份額轉移而放棄的部分盈餘利益，我們可以保留更多的利潤，我們能夠透過我們的自保再保險公司或自保結構基本上全部取代這些利益。

So net-net, we've talked about a 6:1 target ratio in the past. Historically, we've been above and below that ratio depending on how the loss ratio and the premium growth and some other factors that impact that ratio have changed. But over the coming several year outlook, that ratio target for us is unchanged.

因此，總體而言，我們過去曾討論過 6:1 的目標比率。從歷史上看，我們的賠付率會高於或低於該比率，這取決於損失率、保費增長以及影響該比率的其他一些因素的變化。但展望未來幾年，我們的這一比例目標保持不變。

And then I think you made the comment that the insurance entities have gone from a phase of losing negative net income driving losses and capital decreasing to a period of capital generation themselves because of the improvement in the loss ratio.

然後我認為您評論說，由於損失率的改善，保險實體已經從虧損負淨收入導致損失和資本減少的階段轉變為資本自身生成的時期。

When I look and I reconcile that comment to the consolidated bottom line metrics, whether it be adjusted net income or adjusted EBITDA, that may imply some pretty sizable losses still at the holding company level.

當我查看並將該評論與合併底線指標進行協調時，無論是調整後的淨收入還是調整後的 EBITDA，這可能意味著控股公司層級仍然存在相當大的損失。

So can you just talk about what capital has trended at the holding company level apart from the insurance entities, just as we think about the need for potential more capital at the insurance entities to come from the holding company?

那麼，您能否談談除保險實體之外，控股公司層面的資本趨勢如何，就像我們認為保險實體可能需要從控股公司獲得更多資本一樣？

Yeah. There is some complexity when you look at each of the parts in isolation. You're correct that the -- particularly LIC, the Lemonade entity is profitable and generating surplus. At a consolidated level is how we kind of manage the overall capital availability.

是的。當你孤立地看待每個部分時，會發現一些複雜性。您說得對，特別是 LIC，Lemonade 實體是盈利的，並且產生了盈餘。在綜合層面上，我們如何管理整體資本可用性。

And we've talked historically of apparent capital cushion, which is basically a consolidated level, how much capital remains once we fund the growth plan, once we set aside the required level of capital that we are required today and that we are forecasting to be required based on our growth plans and then what remains basically after satisfying all of those obligations.

我們過去曾討論過明顯的資本緩衝，這基本上是一個綜合水平，一旦我們為增長計劃提供資金，一旦我們留出我們今天所需的資本水平以及我們根據增長計劃預測所需的資本水平，那麼在履行所有這些義務之後基本上還剩下多少資本。

And that cushion has been more or less steady for quite some time. We've noted a level of around $200 million. That varies up and down, and that continues to be the level of cushion that we're comfortable with. And so, at times, the parent company must fund the reinsurance companies.

而這種緩衝在相當長的一段時間內基本上保持穩定。我們注意到該金額約為 2 億美元。該值會上下變化，但這仍然是我們感到舒適的緩衝水平。因此，有時母公司必須為再保險公司提供資金。

Currently, it's the opposite where there's excess surplus being generated at the insurance companies. But the big picture is we've got more than sufficient capital to satisfy all of those needs with cushion left over for opportunities that arise, for weather events that are unpredictable and all the risks that we understand can come our way.

目前的情況正好相反，保險公司產生了過多的盈餘。但總體而言，我們擁有足夠的資本來滿足所有這些需求，並且還留有餘力來應對可能出現的機會、不可預測的天氣事件以及我們所知道的所有可能出現的風險。

Jack Matten, BMO.

傑克·馬滕，BMO。

Hey, good morning. Just a question on the car loss ratios. And I'm wondering if you can just discuss just the drivers of the improvement. Is there any like mix change we should be thinking about with renewal versus new business? And any thoughts you have on loss trends that you're seeing in terms of either frequency or severity in the car insurance line?

嘿，早安。我只是想問一下關於汽車損失率的問題。我想知道您是否可以討論一下改進的驅動因素。在續約和新業務方面，我們是否應該考慮類似的組合變化？您對汽車保險業的損失頻率或嚴重程度趨勢有何看法？

Yeah. So there is actually a fairly notable difference that we've been pleased to see unfolding where it is typical in the insurance realm for renewal business to be at a more favorable unit economics than the initial policy. And in car, especially for us at Lemonade, we're seeing a much more notable difference, something on the order of 20 percentage points of loss ratio improvement from the first policy to the renewal policy.

是的。因此，我們很高興地看到，實際上存在著相當顯著的差異，在保險領域，續保業務的單位經濟效益通常比初始保單更為有利。在汽車保險方面，尤其是對我們 Lemonade 來說，我們看到了更顯著的差異，從第一份保單到續保，損失率改善了約 20 個百分點。

It is early, and so, that continues to develop, but that's a really encouraging sign that we're both choosing risks effectively. And as you see, the overall loss ratio coming down, but also that renewal is a great early indicator that we're doing this well.

現在還處於早期階段，因此，這種情況仍在繼續發展，但這確實是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，表明我們都在有效地選擇風險。如您所見，整體損失率正在下降，續約也是一個很好的早期指標，表明我們做得很好。

From a severity and a frequency standpoint, generally across the business, we're seeing and particularly in Q2, we saw a consistent theme of reduced frequency, but somewhat increased severity and severity tends to come in the form of inflation of different sorts, whether it's expected inflation or existing inflation.

從嚴重程度和頻率的角度來看，總體而言，我們看到整個業務，特別是在第二季度，我們看到頻率降低的一致主題，但嚴重程度有所增加，而嚴重程度往往以不同類型的通貨膨脹的形式出現，無論是預期通貨膨脹還是現有通貨膨脹。

But the net, as you see in the overall loss ratio trend is that the favorable trends have been winning out and getting that trailing 12 months number down to 70%, which is the headline number, I would say.

但從整體損失率趨勢來看，淨損失率呈現有利趨勢，過去 12 個月的損失率下降至 70%，我想說，這是一個總體數字。

Maybe I'll just add that it's not a mix change that is driving this. We're seeing both our new and our renewal business improving significantly. So it's really across the board.

也許我只想補充一點，這不是由混合變化引起的。我們看到我們的新業務和續約業務都得到了顯著改善。所以這確實是全面的。

Got it. Thank you. And just on your outlook, it looks like the IFP guidance for the full year doesn't imply much of an acceleration versus the 29% growth this quarter. I guess any reason you wouldn't expect further acceleration this year given I think we're starting to lap some of the home non-renewals in the back half of the year? I mean, it looks like you're maintaining the outlook for your growth spend this year as well. So just any color on the moving pieces there.

知道了。謝謝。僅從您的展望來看，IFP 對全年的指導似乎並不意味著與本季 29% 的成長相比會有太大的加速。我想，鑑於我認為我們將在下半年開始處理一些房屋不續約的情況，您有什麼理由不期望今年會進一步加速嗎？我的意思是，看起來您也維持了今年支出成長的前景。因此，移動的棋子上可以是任何顏色。

Yeah. I think there's certainly the potential for that. You've seen a couple of quarters, particularly the second quarter, where we were able to accelerate things, things came together nicely. A couple of headwinds that we assume will come our way to varying degrees in the second half. There is some seasonality in terms of growth and higher growth in Q3 versus Q4.

是的。我認為確實存在這樣的可能性。你已經看到幾個季度，特別是第二季度，我們能夠加速事情的發展，一切都進展順利。我們預計下半年我們會遇到不同程度的不利因素。成長方面存在一定的季節性，第三季的成長速度高於第四季。

There's some churn dynamics that I think moved our way nicely in Q2 that we don't necessarily expect to replicate, although we could see upside there. We continue to move forward with the project. We've called clean the book in our home book, which provides a headwind, but a good headwind. It aids our move towards profitability. We take advantage of an ability to non-renew certain business that no longer fits our underwriting guidelines.

我認為，第二季的一些客戶流失動態對我們有利，但我們不一定會複製這些動態，儘管我們可以看到其中的上升空間。我們將繼續推進該專案。我們在家庭書中將這本書稱為“清潔書”，它提供了逆風，但卻是良好的逆風。它幫助我們實現盈利。我們可以利用不再符合我們承保準則的某些業務的續約權。

And one place you'll see that in our metrics is in our annual dollar retention metrics, which have been flat for a couple of quarters now. We estimate that there's roughly a 4% drag on that metric because of our home efforts to move more aggressively to profitability.

在我們的指標中，您會發現一個地方，那就是我們的年度美元保留指標，該指標已經連續幾個季度持平。我們估計，由於我們在國內努力更積極地實現盈利，該指標大約會受到 4% 的拖累。

So we're kind of balancing topline and the path to profitability. Notwithstanding any of that, we've seen seven consecutive quarters of topline growth. We'll endeavor to continue that record. It gets a little tougher as we get towards our target cruising growth range of 30%-plus, but we'll certainly aim to do that in the second half.

因此，我們正在平衡營業收入和獲利途徑。儘管如此，我們仍看到連續七個季度的營收成長。我們將努力保持這項記錄。當我們接近 30% 以上的巡航成長目標時，事情會變得更加困難，但我們肯定會在下半年實現這一目標。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Hey, good morning. Just wanted to go back to the Car loss ratios. And I think you were saying you see a 20 percentage point improvement from the first policy to the renewal. I think in the past you've also mentioned that you were not expecting any type of new business penalty.

嘿，早安。只是想回到汽車損失率。我認為您說的是，從第一項保單到續保，保額提高了 20 個百分點。我想您過去也提到過，您沒有預料到任何類型的新業務處罰。

And I think that was specific to cross-sells. So maybe you can just kind of level set for us what your -- maybe how much of the car book and how much of your car growth you're thinking of will be from the cross-sells with no new business penalty versus some that is seeing a little bit higher first policy loss ratio.

我認為這與交叉銷售有關。因此，也許您可以為我們設定一個水平——也許您考慮的汽車訂單量和汽車增長量中有多少將來自沒有新業務處罰的交叉銷售，而有些則看到第一保單損失率略高。

That breakdown is not something we've disclosed publicly. So I think I would probably point you to our some of the stats we shared about Q2 and going forward that we expect to grow the whole car business at a faster pace than the total, and we expect to continue to increase our growth spend for Car.

我們並未公開揭露這項細節。因此，我想我可能會向您指出我們分享的有關第二季度及未來的一些統計數據，我們預計整個汽車業務的增長速度將快於總體增長速度，並且我們預計將繼續增加汽車方面的增長支出。

Generally, about half of growth overall has come from cross sales. That's not 100% specific to car, but a significant amount of that is cross-sell to car. And so, that rough ratio, I would expect to continue as well.

總體而言，大約一半的整體成長來自交叉銷售。這並非 100% 特定於汽車，但其中很大一部分是針對汽車的交叉銷售。因此，我預計這個粗略的比例也將繼續下去。

Okay. And then on the ad spend in the quarter, it was just a little bit higher than the guide, and you're keeping the full year guidance. Could you maybe just talk about some of the increased opportunities you saw this quarter that led to the higher ad spend? And maybe just touch on how you're seeing the competitive market for auto in the second half of the year?

好的。然後，就本季度的廣告支出而言，它僅比指導值高一點，並且您將保持全年指導值。您能否談談本季看到的一些導致廣告支出增加的機會？能否簡單談談您如何看待下半年汽車市場的競爭？

Yeah. Some of the gross spend is timing shift, and this is not uncommon where we'll see greater opportunity or we'll adjust the timing from one quarter to another where the total year target and goal is right on track, but we see a greater opportunity. And so, we'll move from one quarter to another.

是的。部分總支出是時間上的轉變，這並不罕見，我們會看到更大的機會，或者我們會調整從一個季度到另一個季度的時間，全年目標和目標正好在軌道上，但我們會看到更大的機會。因此，我們將從一個季度轉移到另一個季度。

We're spending more on brand spend and some of that tends to be a little bit more front-loaded because you want to kind of get the visibility out there. At the beginning of the year, we've upped the total spend but quite modestly and the rest has been timing shift.

我們在品牌支出上投入了更多資金，其中一些往往是前期投入，因為我們希望提高品牌知名度。年初，我們增加了總支出，但幅度不大，其餘支出則隨著時間增加。

I think in Q2, certainly, we saw some nice upside from certain channels where if you look at the efficiency of the Car spend, we were able to significantly increase it on a sequential basis on a year-on-year basis. The efficiency of the car spend, the number of dollars that each dollar of spend brought in was stable. And that's a nice when you're doubling or tripling or more of the spend and the efficiency remains stable, that's a great sign.

我認為在第二季度，我們確實看到了某些管道的一些不錯的增長，如果你看一下汽車支出的效率，我們能夠按季度和同比大幅增加汽車支出。汽車支出的效率，每一美元的支出所帶來的美元數是穩定的。當你的支出增加一倍、兩倍或更多，而效率保持穩定時，這是一個很好的跡象。

And so, we'll continue to kind of push that edge in Q3, which is typically a strong quarter of growth. The loss ratio trend is important. And so, we kind of watch how that tracks. But we feel like we have a great foundation for continuance of these car trends in the second half.

因此，我們將在第三季度繼續推動這一優勢，這通常是成長強勁的季度。損失率趨勢很重要。所以，我們會觀察它的軌跡。但我們覺得，我們為下半年繼續保持這些汽車趨勢奠定了良好的基礎。

And just on the competitive market because it feels like a lot of the industry is reaching a pretty good profitability level and is starting to pivot to growth. It seems like your conversion rates are still strong, but maybe how are you just thinking about the competitive market?

就競爭激烈的市場而言，感覺很多行業都達到了相當不錯的盈利水平，並開始轉向成長。看起來您的轉換率仍然很高，但也許您只是在考慮競爭激烈的市場？

Yeah. We can grow a great deal and still be a tiny drop in the car ocean. So we don't ignore the competitive dynamics. We tend to want to where we can give the benefit of our unit economics improvements or loss ratio improvements back to the customer so that our pricing is attractive. There's obviously, a limit to that.

是的。我們可以取得長足進步，但仍然只是汽車海洋中的一滴水。所以我們不會忽視競爭動態。我們傾向於希望將單位經濟效益改善或損失率改善的好處回饋給客戶，從而使我們的定價具有吸引力。顯然，這是有一個限度的。

But the competitive dynamics of the market tend to be secondary to what we see in terms of what our LTV models tell us that what are good risks and where the marketing efficiency is strong. So we feel like all systems are go going into the second half.

但是，就 LTV 模型告訴我們哪些是好的風險以及哪裡的行銷效率較高而言，市場的競爭動態往往是次要的。所以我們感覺進入下半場時所有系統都運作正常。

(Operator Instructions) Katie Sakys, Autonomous.

（操作員指示）凱蒂·薩基斯（Katie Sakys），自主。

Hi. Good morning. I wanted to circle back to the updates and guidance, specifically the full year 2025 EBITDA guide. I guess I was a little surprised to see that that remained unchanged relative to last quarter, especially considering the progress that you guys have been making on both the reported gross loss ratio as well as the trailing 12-month gross loss ratio.

你好。早安.我想回顧一下更新和指導，特別是 2025 年全年 EBITDA 指南。我想我有點驚訝地看到這個數字與上一季相比保持不變，特別是考慮到你們在報告的毛損率以及過去 12 個月的毛損率方面取得的進展。

So a question there for you guys on whether you're expecting any increasing volatility in the back half of the year that might be informing your stable outlook on full year EBITDA? And then adjacent to that, in reading the shareholder letter, the language on expectations for 2026 seem a little bit different for positive adjusted EBITDA before the end of full year '26.

所以我想問你們一個問題：你們是否預計下半年會出現更大的波動，這可能會影響你們對全年 EBITDA 的穩定展望？除此之外，在閱讀股東信時，關於 2026 年預期的措辭似乎與 2026 年全年結束前調整後的 EBITDA 略有不同。

And I think on the last call, you guys had perhaps phrased it as positive EBITDA by 4Q '26. Is there anything to read into the shift in language there?

我認為在上次電話會議上，你們可能將其表述為 2026 年第四季實現正 EBITDA。有什麼可以解讀出那裡語言的轉變嗎？

Yeah. On the EBITDA breakeven, no change. Before the end of 2026, we expect EBITDA to be positive. So that's not a change. We have not indicated we expect the full quarter to be positive, although that's certainly possible, but we've indicated no change and expect that before the end of '26.

是的。EBITDA 損益平衡點沒有變動。我們預計 2026 年底前 EBITDA 將為正值。所以這並不是什麼改變。我們尚未表示我們預計整個季度都會實現正增長，儘管這當然是可能的，但我們表示不會有任何變化，並預計在 26 年底之前實現正增長。

One dynamic to probably highlight is when you look at the expected EBITDA of this year and then flow that into next year and then roll heading towards breakeven, you will see a dynamic where it's not exactly linear. And part of that is driven by our increasing growth spend, which increases the -- adds cost to the cost structure.

可能需要強調的一個動態是，當您查看今年的預期 EBITDA，然後將其流入明年，然後朝著收支平衡的方向發展時，您會看到一個不完全線性的動態。部分原因是我們不斷增加的成長支出，這增加了成本結構的成本。

And when you grow at a faster pace, that premium that you bring in doesn't necessarily or doesn't drop to the bottom line in real time. It drops over the early lifetime of that customer. And so, as you accelerate growth, you see a dynamic where the bottom line doesn't change a whole lot, but the topline increases. And that's one of the things, I think, that helps us indicate that we're derisking that bottom line trajectory.

當你以更快的速度成長時，你帶來的溢價並不一定或不會即時下降到底線。該值在該客戶的早期生命週期內下降。因此，隨著成長的加速，您會看到一種動態，即底線不會發生太大變化，但收入卻會增加。我認為，這是幫助我們表明我們正在降低底線軌跡風險的因素之一。

Every bit of incremental growth kind of adds to that lifetime value and that cash flow that we expect to spool out over the coming quarters. So the bottom line guidance for this year, you're correct, is unchanged, but it's really that dynamic of flow-through from the topline to the bottom line, which has been the case for quite some time.

每一點增量成長都會增加終身價值和我們預計在未來幾季產生的現金流。因此，您說得對，今年的底線指引沒有變化，但這實際上是從頂線到底線的流動動態，這種情況已經持續了相當長一段時間了。

Got it. And then perhaps as a follow-up, in kind of thinking about the shifts that you guys have made to the quota share program and expectations for longer-term profitability, is there a point at which your target for a [low-70s] gross loss ratio might materially come down into something below 70%?

知道了。然後，作為後續問題，考慮到你們對配額分成計劃所做的轉變以及對長期盈利能力的期望，你們的毛損失率目標（70% 以下）是否會在某個時候大幅下降到 70% 以下？

Never say never --

永不說永不--

Do you want to take that one.

你想拿那個嗎？

Yeah. sorry. My mic was on mute. I apologize. Katie, what I was saying is never say never, but that's not our inbound kind of bias, if you like. We aim to continue to drive our prices down, killer pricing as a key differentiator, which will drive greater conversion, lower acquisition costs, higher retention dynamics.

是的，抱歉。我的麥克風靜音了。我很抱歉。凱蒂，我想說的是永不言敗，但這不是我們的入站偏見，如果你願意的話。我們的目標是繼續降低價格，以殺手級定價作為關鍵的差異化因素，這將推動更高的轉換率、更低的收購成本、更高的保留率。

Because our cost structure is so advantaged, you already see in this quarter what happened to our LAE, which is already perhaps one of the very best in the industry when we are so subscale, gives you an indication of what our cost structure is going to look like already now.

由於我們的成本結構非常有優勢，您已經看到本季度我們的 LAE 發生的變化，當我們的規模如此小時，它可能已經是業內最好的之一，這可以向您表明我們的成本結構現在將會是什麼樣子。

And as we scale, our ability to accelerate growth while decreasing our underlying operating expenses, all of these are very strong indicators of our long-term ability to operate at a far, far lower cost structure than our competitors. And then you get a choice, which is do you then price similar to competition and increase your margins, or do you lower prices and accelerate growth?

隨著我們規模的擴大，我們有能力加速成長，同時降低我們的基本營運費用，所有這些都是非常有力的指標，表明我們能夠長期以比競爭對手低得多的成本結構運作。然後你就面臨一個選擇，是採用與競爭對手相似的價格來提高利潤率，還是降低價格來加速成長？

And for reasons that I elaborated at some length during our recent Investor Day, our bias is towards lowering prices, getting the conversion and the growth and the retention that that brings until we get to a sizable scale.

基於我在最近的投資者日上詳細闡述的原因，我們傾向於降低價格，實現轉換、成長和保留，直到我們達到相當大的規模。

So I would not guide or set the expectation that our loss ratio will continue down the trajectory that it has for many, many quarters. We've achieved healthy loss ratios. And at some point, lowering loss ratios more than that just means that we're not being as price competitive as we could be.

因此，我不會指導或設定預期，我們的損失率將繼續沿著過去許多季度的軌跡下降。我們已達到健康的損失率。在某種程度上，降低損失率甚至超過這個水準僅僅意味著我們的價格競爭力不夠。

Jack, BMO.

傑克，BMO。

Hey, thanks for taking the follow up. Just one, I think there was like an $11.7 million tax refund benefit that you all had this quarter. Just any color on what that was and whether there's anything similar we should think about potentially reoccurring in future quarters?

嘿，感謝您的跟進。只有一個，我認為本季你們獲得的退稅福利大約是 1170 萬美元。您能解釋一下那是什麼嗎？我們是否應該考慮在未來幾季可能再次發生類似的事情？

Yeah. That's a onetime tax credit related to the ERC program. So that's not something we'd expect to reoccur.

是的。這是與 ERC 計劃相關的一次性稅收抵免。所以我們不希望這種事情再發生。

Andrew, Jefferies.

安德魯·杰弗里斯。

Hey, thanks. Tim, I think I heard you say earlier the leverage that you would be running to max is 6:1. Was that on a gross premium basis? And if so, could you provide that on a net as well?

嘿，謝謝。提姆，我想我之前聽你說過，你最大可以使用的槓桿是 6:1。這是以總保費計算的嗎？如果有的話，您也可以在網路上提供嗎？

So again, we don't necessarily guide to that. That's just more of broad strokes of what our targets are. Yeah, on a gross basis, historically, we've talked about gross written premium in that 6:1 ratio. There's also a dynamic in the regulatory surplus that requires a 3:1 on a net basis, which comes into play depending on how the quota share reinsurance is structured and other accounting dynamics.

所以，我們不一定會引導這一點。這只是我們目標的一個大概概括。是的，從總體上看，從歷史上看，我們討論的毛承保保費比例是 6:1。監理盈餘中還存在一種動態，要求淨額為 3:1，這取決於配額份額再保險的結構和其他會計動態。

But again, I would think of those as substantially unchanged. 6:1 on a gross basis, if you directly translate that to net, you get something like 4:1 versus 3:1. But more or less, I would think of it all as unchanged.

但我再次認為它們基本上沒有改變。總額為 6:1，如果直接將其轉換為淨額，則會得到 4:1 對 3:1 的比例。但或多或少，我認為一切都沒有改變。

Is that just on a US entity basis? Or is that including the Cayman captive?

這僅基於美國實體嗎？或包括開曼群島俘虜？

All of that is on a consolidated basis. If you isolate the Cayman, the ratios are dramatically different. And that's part of the benefit of these different structures that is that all the regulators understand and analyze each other's requirements and approve of them such that this is a pretty common structure.

所有這些都是在合併的基礎上進行的。如果將開曼群島單獨列出，其比例將會有很大差異。這些不同結構的好處之一是，所有監管機構都理解和分析彼此的要求並予以批准，因此這是非常常見的結構。

But if you isolate any of the entities and do some math, you're going to get different numbers. Everything that we communicate is I would think of it as on a consolidated global basis for Lemonade Inc.

但是如果你隔離任何實體並做一些數學計算，你就會得到不同的數字。我認為我們所交流的一切都是 Lemonade Inc. 的全球綜合資訊。

Katie, Autonomous.

凱蒂，自主。

Yeah. One more question for me on the non-renewal program and the efforts to remix the homeowners book. Could you guys give us an update on where exactly in that process you currently sit? How much more remixing needs to be done or how much more of the book is still subject to non-renewal?

是的。我還有一個關於不續約計劃和重新混合房主書籍的努力的問題。你們能否向我們介紹一下你們目前所處的具體流程？還需要進行多少次重新混錄，或者這本書還有多少內容無法續錄？

And has the change in the quota share structure extended the potential timeline on that process? I guess what I'm really trying to get at is when can we expect to see that ADR level increase north of 84% again?

配額結構的變化是否延長了這一進程的潛在時間表？我想我真正想問的是，什麼時候我們才能再次看到 ADR 水平上升到 84% 以上？

Yeah. So I would think of the impact as being fairly steady. If you look at the back half of last year, the first half of this year, and the expected second half of this year, the run rate impact is more or less the same in each of those three segments. I would expect by the end of this year, we would be past the most significant part of it. I would not expect it to necessarily go to zero in the beginning of the following year.

是的。所以我認為影響是相當穩定的。如果你看去年下半年、今年上半年以及預計的今年下半年，你會發現這三個部分的運行率影響大致相同。我預計到今年年底，我們將度過其中最重要的階段。我並不認為它會在來年年初降至零。

But I think the pace will certainly begin to diminish based on what we know now. This is obviously, something you look at as the book evolves, but I think it will start to dissipate as you get out of the back half of this year. And that is not the only impact on the ADR number, but it is a more notable impact in this period.

但根據我們目前所了解的情況，我認為速度肯定會開始減慢。顯然，這是在書的演變過程中會看到的事情，但我認為，當你度過今年下半年時，這種現象就會開始消散。這並不是對 ADR 數字的唯一影響，但在這段時期，它的影響更為顯著。

So I would expect the ADR to have the opposite dynamic where it would continue to be stable and then start to tick upwards based on all of the other dynamics in ADR, customer retention and other improved dynamics. We noted the car loss ratio at renewal. I mean those are the kinds of things that push that number up. So I'd expect that to be more visible as we come out of the back half of this year in the ADR number.

因此，我預計 ADR 會出現相反的動態，即它將繼續保持穩定，然後根據 ADR 中的所有其他動態、客戶保留率和其他改進的動態開始向上移動。我們注意到續保時的汽車損失率。我的意思是，這些都是導致該數字上升的因素。因此，我預計，隨著今年下半年 ADR 數據的公佈，這一現象將更加明顯。

Maybe just to state the obvious, Katie, but in addition to dampening our annual dollar retention numbers, this program also dampens our topline. Our revenue and our in force premium, we are really growing faster than the number that we reported would indicate because we've also got this counter action of nonrenewing part of the book, cleaning the book.

凱蒂，也許這只是顯而易見的，但除了抑制我們年度美元保留數字之外，該計劃還抑制了我們的營業額。我們的收入和有效保費的成長速度確實比我們報告的數字要快，因為我們也採取了不續保部分、清理書籍的反效果。

So as Tim said, we'll get through the bulk of that by the end of this year. And then there will be, I think, something of an unleash not only of annual dollar retention metrics, but also a bit of a tailwind to our topline metrics as well.

正如蒂姆所說，我們將在今年年底前完成大部分工作。然後，我認為，這不僅會釋放年度美元保留指標的潛力，而且也會對我們的營收指標產生一定程度的推動作用。

And of course, we're doing all of this in service of our bottom-line metrics, which is we've always been pretty disciplined as our data comes in and we get smarter about what we should and should not be underwriting, we decide to apply our new insight retroactively wherever we can as well, and that's what you're seeing happening here.

當然，我們所做的一切都是為了我們的底線指標，也就是說，隨著數據的湧入，我們對應該承保和不應該承保的內容變得更加清楚，我們決定盡可能地追溯應用我們的新見解，這就是您在這裡看到的。

The fruits of that have already manifested several times. Our loss ratio is testament to that. Our Q1 loss ratio during the wildfires in California were very strong evidence of why this is all a price worth paying, but we do pay for it in a couple of currencies, ADR being one and topline metrics being another.

其成果已多次顯現。我們的損失率證明了這一點。我們在第一季加州野火期間的損失率非常有力地證明了為什麼這一切都是值得付出的代價，但我們確實用幾種貨幣來支付，一種是 ADR，另一個是營收指標。

Thank you. We have no further questions. This will conclude today's Q&A session and thus conclude today's call. Thank you very much for your attendance. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝。我們沒有其他問題了。今天的問答環節到此結束，今天的電話會議也到此結束。非常感謝您的出席。現在您可以斷開線路了。