Lennar Corp (LEN.B) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

I will now turn the call over to David Collins for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛‧柯林斯，讓他宣讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flow, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、營運績效、現金流、策略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 對本次電話會議之日的估計，並非旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption of Risk Factors, contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC.

許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果有重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下的因素。

Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I would now like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chair -- Executive Chairman. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席史都華·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Good morning, everybody, and thank you for joining today. I'm in Miami, together with Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, who you just heard from, our Controller and Vice President; Bruce Gross, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services; and a few others as well.

非常好。大家早安，感謝您今天的加入。我和我們的聯合執行長兼總裁 Jon Jaffe 一起在邁阿密； Diane Bessette，我們的財務長；大衛‧柯林斯 (David Collins)，您剛收到了我們的財務長兼副總裁的來信； Bruce Gross，Lennar Financial Services 執行長；還有其他一些。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic overview of the company. After my introductory remarks, Jon is going to give an operational overview updating construction cost, cycle time and some of our land strategy and position. As usual, Diane is going to give a detailed financial highlight along with some limited guidance for fourth quarter and the full year of 2024 and then, of course, we'll have our question-and-answer period.

像往常一樣，我將對公司進行宏觀和策略概述。在我的介紹性演講之後，喬恩將提供營運概述，更新建築成本、週期時間以及我們的一些土地策略和立場。像往常一樣，Diane 將提供詳細的財務亮點以及第四季度和 2024 年全年的一些有限指導，然後，當然，我們將進行問答期。

As usual, I would like to ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up so that we can accommodate as many as possible. So let's begin.

像往常一樣，我想請您將自己限制在一個問題和一個後續行動上，以便我們可以容納盡可能多的人。那麼就讓我們開始吧。

We are very pleased to report another very strong quarter and year-end of operating results for Lennar. We've executed our operating plan effectively over the past year and accordingly, have simply never been better positioned from balance sheet to operating strategy to address market conditions in the new year 2024. Throughout 2023, the dominant theme at the macro level has been the impact of higher interest rates on the homebuilding consumer as affordability has been tested and demand has been constrained by the ability to purchase i.e., affordability and the ability to qualify.

我們非常高興地報告 Lennar 又一個非常強勁的季度和年末營運業績。我們在過去的一年裡有效地執行了我們的營運計劃，因此，從資產負債表到營運策略，我們從未有過更好的定位來應對2024 年新的一年的市場狀況。整個2023 年，宏觀層面的主導主題一直是高利率對住宅建築消費者的影響，因為承受能力已經受到考驗，需求受到購買能力（即承受能力和資格能力）的限制。

Generally speaking, consumers are employed and are generally confident as they will remain employed and that their compensation will generally rise. Overall, consumer confidence has been reasonably strong and buyers that can transact have transacted. Underlying this environment is a general chronic supply shortage of homes, especially affordable homes across the country as well as a growing pent-up demand for housing that is and has been held back by materially higher interest rates. There's been a very short supply of affordable products and a very strong demand for that affordable product. The new homebuilders have worked out a variety of tenant structures that range from interest rate buy downs to closing cost pickups to price reductions to meet the buyer, the purchaser at the intersection of need and affordability. The existing home market has been quiet as existing homeowners have coveted their low interest rate mortgages and remained on the sidelines.

一般來說，消費者有工作，並且普遍有信心繼續就業，而且他們的薪酬普遍會上漲。整體而言，消費者信心相當強勁，能夠進行交易的買家已經進行了交易。這種環境的背後是住房供應普遍長期短缺，尤其是全國範圍內的經濟適用房，以及不斷增長的被壓抑的住房需求，而這種需求已經受到大幅上漲的利率的抑制。價格實惠的產品供應非常短缺，而對該價格實惠的產品的需求卻非常強勁。新的住宅建築商已經制定了各種租戶結構，從降低利率購買到成交成本上升，再到降價以滿足買家的需求，即買家的需求和負擔能力。現有房屋市場一直很平靜，因為現有房主覬覦低利率抵押貸款並保持觀望。

Homebuilders have been uniquely able to activate demand by using incentives that unlock the affordability constraint and enable purchasers to transact. Over the past quarter, this narrative has been particularly difficult as interest rates spiked through the first 2 months of the quarter and then began to ease in November. As mortgage rates began to migrate from 7.5% towards 8%, the market began to feel like it was hitting a real inflection point and the overall market conditions softened materially.

房屋建築商能夠透過利用激勵措施來刺激需求，從而解除負擔能力限制並使購買者能夠進行交易，這是獨一無二的。在過去的一個季度中，這種說法尤其困難，因為利率在該季度的前兩個月飆升，然後在 11 月開始放緩。隨著抵押貸款利率開始從 7.5% 轉向 8%，市場開始感覺正在觸及真正的轉折點，整體市場狀況大幅走軟。

Most recently, of course, Jerome Powell and the Fed have signaled that we might be closer to the end of the tightening cycle, and we might see lower rates as we enter 2024 and get into the new year. We will see. Against this backdrop, Lennar's consistent strategy throughout the past year has been to continue to drive volume to find affordability to meet demand by using our dynamic pricing model and using appropriate incentives and provide supply to the market. Over the past year, we have consistently detailed our operating strategy with the expectation that we would do as follows: number one, reduce our land assets while growing our business. Number two, drive strong and consistent bottom line earnings, while concurrently generating consistent net cash flow. Number three, reduce our construction cycle times while increasing our inventory churn and number four, ultimately enhance the quality of our returns on equity and return on assets by focusing on the allocation of liquid assets, i.e., cash.

當然，最近傑羅姆鮑威爾和聯準會已經發出信號，我們可能已經接近緊縮週期的結束，隨著進入 2024 年並進入新的一年，我們可能會看到更低的利率。我們會看到。在此背景下，Lennar 在過去一年中的一貫策略是繼續提高銷量，透過使用我們的動態定價模型和適當的激勵措施來滿足需求，並為市場提供供應。一年來，我們不斷精進經營策略，期望做到以下幾點：第一，減少土地資產，發展業務。第二，推動強勁且持續的獲利，同時產生持續的淨現金流。第三，減少建設週期時間，同時增加庫存週轉率；第四，透過重點配置流動資產（即現金），最終提高股本回報率和資產回報率的品質。

2023 was a year of strategy and successful execution for Lennar and sets us up extremely well for another strong year of execution in 2024. We began the year with a strong statement of operating strategy in a higher interest rate environment and we focus on execution throughout the year. Even as the macroeconomic environment continued to shift and adjust to inflation with higher interest rates, we adhered to our strategy and we drove volume and production. We believe that demand was strong, though constrained by affordability and supply was very limited.

2023 年對Lennar 來說是策略和成功執行的一年，這為我們在2024 年又一個強勁的執行年奠定了良好的基礎。新年伊始，我們在較高利率環境下發表了一份強有力的營運策略聲明，我們在整個過程中專注於執行年。即使宏觀經濟環境繼續變化並適應通貨膨脹和利率上升，我們仍堅持我們的策略並推動了產量和產量。我們認為，儘管受到負擔能力的限制且供應非常有限，但需求仍然強勁。

As others pulled back, we leaned in and maintained pace. We defined our operating strategy as driving production and sales pace while using price, incentives and margin reduction to enable affordability. Rather than further constraining supply, we drove production and used our formidable size and scale to enable cost and operating efficiencies to drive affordability. As you've seen in our press release, while driving higher volume, we also achieved strong operating results.

當其他人後退時，我們靠攏並保持步伐。我們將營運策略定義為推動生產和銷售步伐，同時利用價格、激勵措施和利潤降低來提高可負擔性。我們沒有進一步限制供應，而是推動生產，並利用我們強大的規模和規模來提高成本和營運效率，從而提高可承受性。正如您在我們的新聞稿中所看到的，在推動銷售成長的同時，我們也取得了強勁的營運表現。

We delivered over 73,000 homes in 2023, which represents a 10% year-over-year volume increase over 2022. We delivered a strong bottom line of $3.9 billion or $4.82 a share. We also generated well in excess of the $3.5 billion of homebuilding cash flow that we generated relative to what we generated in '22. And we are well positioned with land and community count to expect to deliver 80,000 homes in 2024. Again, another 10% increase year-over-year. Given the current interest rate signal from the Fed, we would also expect that margins will be at least consistent with our 2023 levels. And although we have embedded lower margins that will flow through the first quarter, those reduced margins will clear over the next quarter and using our dynamic pricing tool, we will recover margin quickly and efficiently as lower interest rates enable us to reduce incentives.

2023 年，我們交付了超過 73,000 套房屋，數量比 2022 年同比增長 10%。我們實現了 39 億美元或每股 4.82 美元的強勁利潤。與 22 年相比，我們產生的房屋建築現金流量還遠遠超過了 35 億美元。我們在土地和社區數量方面處於有利地位，預計在 2024 年交付 80,000 套住房。再次同比增長 10%。鑑於聯準會目前的利率訊號，我們也預期利潤率將至少與 2023 年的水準一致。儘管我們在第一季降低了利潤率，但這些降低的利潤率將在下個季度清除，並使用我們的動態定價工具，我們將快速有效地恢復利潤率，因為較低的利率使我們能夠減少激勵措施。

The strategic benefits of driving volume came and will continue to come with advantages that are both immediately valuable as low as durable for the company's future. I'd like to briefly detail some of those advantages. First, by driving volume, we gained market share in most of our core markets as we leaned in when some others pulled that back. Our trade partners saw a consistent and dependable partner that became worthy of the designation builder of choice. We worked side by side with our traditional trade partners. And additionally, we found additional trade partner relationships with participants that found that they had dependable and consistent work with our strategy. Through market share growth in local markets, we enhanced the ability to better manage our costs enhance our efficiency of operation, reduce cycle times with efficient production templates and enhance our inventory turn. Don will discuss this in more detail shortly.

提高銷售量的策略效益已經出現，並將繼續帶來這些優勢，這些優勢對公司的未來既具有立即價值，又具有持久價值。我想簡單詳細介紹其中的一些優點。首先，透過提高銷量，我們在大多數核心市場中獲得了市場份額，而當其他一些市場撤回時，我們就採取了行動。我們的貿易夥伴看到了一個始終如一、可靠的合作夥伴，值得選擇指定建造者。我們與傳統貿易夥伴並肩合作。此外，我們還發現了與參與者的其他貿易夥伴關係，發現他們與我們的策略有著可靠且一致的合作。透過本地市場的市場份額成長，我們增強了更好地管理成本的能力，提高了營運效率，透過高效的生產模板縮短了週期時間，並提高了庫存週轉率。唐很快就會更詳細地討論這個問題。

Next, and maybe most important, by driving volume, we are positioned with land and communities for strong volume in all of our operating markets. As we drove volume and delivered homes, we purchased new land and communities for the next year's deliveries. We are extremely well positioned to continue to sell on pace as prices recover and as incentives subside alongside lower interest rates. We are positioned to drive even stronger bottom line results and cash flow as market conditions normalize. Additionally, by driving volume, we gained market share and land acquisition. Simply put, we continue to sell land by selling homes and then purchase land to replace communities, especially when others walked away.

接下來，也許最重要的是，透過推動銷量，我們在所有營運市場中都擁有土地和社區，以實現強勁的銷售。當我們增加銷售並交付房屋時，我們為明年的交付購買了新的土地和社區。隨著價格回升以及激勵措施隨著利率下降而消退，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續以節奏出售。隨著市場狀況正常化，我們有能力推動更強勁的利潤和現金流。此外，透過推動銷量，我們獲得了市場份額和土地收購。簡而言之，我們繼續透過出售房屋來出售土地，然後購買土地來取代社區，尤其是當其他人離開時。

Market share advances have given us the critical position to be an even stronger land buyer of choice to the owners and developers of critical land assets. They saw a dependable market participant remain consistent as market conditions became more tenuous and we found that we were able to experiment with innovative land structures that work constructively as markets falter and then recover. Noteworthy in this regard is our variable land pricing tool that enables home site values to move up or down as a percentage of the sales price of the home as markets move up and down.

市場份額的提高使我們處於關鍵地位，成為關鍵土地資產所有者和開發商選擇的更強大的土地買家。他們看到，隨著市場條件變得更加脆弱，可靠的市場參與者仍然保持一致，我們發現我們能夠嘗試創新的土地結構，這些結構在市場動搖然後復甦時發揮建設性作用。在這方面值得注意的是我們的可變土地定價工具，該工具使住宅用地價值能夠隨著市場的波動而按照房屋銷售價格的百分比上下波動。

Next, by driving consistent volume even at lower margins, we generated consistent cash flow through more challenging times and enhanced our balance sheet and our cash liquidity even after redeeming or repurchasing $1.1 billion of senior notes through the year and repurchasing 10 million shares of Lennar stock through the year. Situated today with a 9.6% homebuilding debt-to-total cap ratio with $6.3 billion of cash on hand and $0 drawn on our revolver and with an expected $3.5 billion plus or minus of net cash flow over the next year, we have the flexibility to invest capital strategically and grow while retiring debt as it matures and repurchasing shares of Lennar stock, which we expect to repurchase at least $2 billion of stock over the next year.

接下來，即使在利潤率較低的情況下也能保持穩定的交易量，即使在全年贖回或回購了11 億美元的高級票據併回購了1000 萬股Lennar 股票之後，我們也能在更具挑戰性的時期產生穩定的現金流，並增強了我們的資產負債表和現金流動性。經過一年。目前，房屋建築債務與總上限比率為 9.6%，手頭現金為 63 億美元，左輪手槍提取金額為 0 美元，預計明年的淨現金流增減為 35 億美元，我們可以靈活地戰略性地投資資本並實現成長，同時在債務到期時償還債務並回購Lennar 股票，我們預計明年將回購至少20 億美元的股票。

Fourth, by driving volume, we gained advantaged insights into and refined the workings of our strategic land banks. The flow of volume through the land banking relationships that define our current approach to land acquisition was invaluable. Questions have now been answered as to the durability of the capital partners that make up the counterparty relationship with the homebuilding machine. Our consistent volume helped define both trust and dependability in making those and taking those relationships to another level as neither party flinched as market conditions tested the boundaries of relationship. While adjustments were made and lessons were learned, the structures and relationships became stronger and more durable.

第四，透過增加數量，我們獲得了對戰略土地儲備運作的有利洞察並完善了其運作。透過土地儲備關係來確定我們目前的土地收購方式的流量是無價的。關於構成與住宅建築機器的交易對手關係的資本合作夥伴的持久性的問題現在已經得到解答。我們一致的數量有助於定義建立這些關係的信任和可靠性，並將這些關係提升到另一個水平，因為當市場條件考驗關係的界限時，雙方都沒有退縮。在進行調整並學習的同時，結構和關係變得更加牢固和持久。

Fifth, by driving volume, especially in the more difficult interest rate environment of the last year, we were able to develop, enhance, use and improve Lennar machine. Our sales, marketing and dynamic pricing machine is quickly becoming an advanced digital engine that has materially benefited by aggressive focused use and engagement while the market was most difficult. We focused on what was required to drive volume while market conditions challenged affordability. We pushed data and engagement through the component parts of this digital tool and stressed it often into its limits. We reviewed 40 points of feedback from our 40 operating divisions and made adjustments and refinements as we learned.

第五，透過推動銷量，特別是在去年更困難的利率環境下，我們能夠開發、增強、使用和改進 Lennar 機器。我們的銷售、行銷和動態定價機器正在迅速成為一個先進的數位引擎，在市場最困難的時候，透過積極的集中使用和參與而獲得物質利益。當市場條件對承受能力提出挑戰時，我們專注於推動銷售所需的因素。我們透過這個數位工具的組成部分推動數據和參與，並經常強調它的極限。我們審查了 40 個營運部門的 40 個回饋意見，並根據情況進行了調整和改進。

Today and the result is that Lennar's machine is becoming an invaluable partner as we drive volume by finding market at affordable pricing and driving sales at the same pace as production.

如今，Lennar 的機器正在成為我們寶貴的合作夥伴，我們透過以實惠的價格尋找市場並以與生產同步的速度推動銷售來推動銷售。

Overall, our strategic focus on driving volume in both production and sales has enabled us to become a stronger and better positioned company that has become more durable through the ups and downs of housing cycles. Our balance sheet has never been stronger, and our operation -- our operating platform has never been better aligned. Our fourth quarter and year-end of 2023 has been another strategic and operational success for our company. While market conditions have been challenging, we have consistently learned and found ways to address market needs. We know that demand is strong and there is a chronic housing supply shortage that needs to be filled. We will continue to drive production to meet the housing shortage that we know persist across our markets.

總體而言，我們對提高產量和銷售的策略重點使我們能夠成為更強大、定位更佳的公司，並且在房地產週期的起起落落中變得更加持久。我們的資產負債表從未如此強大，我們的營運—我們的營運平台也從未如此協調。 2023 年第四季和年底是我們公司策略和營運上的又一次成功。儘管市場條件充滿挑戰，但我們不斷學習並找到滿足市場需求的方法。我們知道需求強勁，長期存在住房供應短缺的問題需要填補。我們將繼續推動生產，以滿足我們市場上持續存在的住房短缺問題。

With that said, as interest rates subside to normalize and if the Fed is going to begin to actually cut rates, we believe that pent-up demand will be activated, and we will be well prepared. To date, we have seen overall market conditions remain generally constructive for our industry. As higher interest rates has subsided, strong pent-up demand has found ways to access the housing market. Most recent movements in interest rates suggest a better road ahead.

話雖如此，隨著利率回落並趨於正常化，如果聯準會開始實際降息，我們相信被壓抑的需求將被激活，我們將做好充分準備。到目前為止，我們看到整體市場狀況對我們的行業總體來說仍然是有利的。隨著利率上升的消退，被壓抑的強勁需求找到了進入房地產市場的方法。最近的利率變動表明未來的道路會更好。

Accordingly, we executed on our core strategy against the most difficult economic and industry backdrop. Given consistent execution, we are extremely well positioned for even greater success as strong demand for affordable offerings continues to seek short supply. We expect to start the new year with strong sales -- strong starts, sales and closings as we have guided to 16,500 to 17,000 deliveries in the first quarter, and a 21% to 21.25% margin as lower margin sales move through the first quarter.

因此，我們在最困難的經濟和產業背景下執行了我們的核心策略。由於對價格實惠產品的強勁需求持續導致供應短缺，只要執行一致，我們就能夠取得更大的成功。我們預計將以強勁的銷售開始新的一年——強勁的開工、銷售和結帳，因為我們指導第一季度的交付量為16,500 至17,000 輛，隨著第一季銷售利潤率較低，利潤率將達到21% 至21.25%。

We engaged the changing tides of the past year with a consistent strategy that has enabled certainty of execution throughout our company. Our strategy is well known and understood throughout our division offices, and we have a simple and consistent model of execution. We focus on maintaining volume while we price our homes to drive match base. We work with our trade base to manage costs and efficiencies and adjust product offering to meet the market. We manage both our land and our production inventories to drive efficiency, cash flow and returns on our asset base. We focus on our land light model in order to drive balance sheet efficiency.

我們以一致的策略來應對過去一年不斷變化的潮流，使整個公司的執行具有確定性。我們的策略在我們的部門辦公室中眾所周知並被理解，並且我們有一個簡單且一致的執行模型。我們專注於維持銷量，同時對房屋進行定價以推動比賽基礎。我們與我們的貿易基地合作來管理成本和效率，並調整產品供應以滿足市場需求。我們管理土地和生產庫存，以提高資產基礎的效率、現金流量和回報。我們專注於土地照明模型，以提高資產負債表效率。

Finally, we fortify our balance sheet to have the liquidity for strength and flexibility. Knowing what to do in executing per plan has driven this quarter's and this year's success and ensures consistent success for the foreseeable future. As we look ahead to a successful 2024, we are well positioned for and expect to see much more of the same. We are confident that by design, we will continue to grow, perform and drive Lennar to new levels of performance.

最後，我們強化資產負債表，以擁有流動性來增強實力和靈活性。了解如何執行每個計劃推動了本季和今年的成功，並確保在可預見的未來持續取得成功。當我們展望 2024 年的成功時，我們已經做好了充分準備，並期望看到更多相同的事情。我們相信，透過設計，我們將繼續發展、表現並推動 Lennar 達到新的性能水平。

So with that, let me turn it over to Jon.

那麼，讓我把它交給喬恩。

As Stuart discussed, our operational teams at Lennar continued focusing on executing our operating strategies in our fourth quarter. Other divisions continuously learn from their engagement with Lennar machine, they provide feedback for enhancements and improve the machine in our execution of our strategies. You can see the evolution of this improvement in our even flow operating strategy throughout the year as starts in sales for the second half of 2023 were evenly matched at 37,053 and 37,032, respectively.

正如史都華所討論的，我們在 Lennar 的營運團隊在第四季度繼續專注於執行我們的營運策略。其他部門不斷從與 Lennar 機器的合作中學習，他們提供增強回饋，並在我們執行策略時改進機器。您可以看到我們全年均流營運策略的這種改進的演變，2023 年下半年的銷售開工量勢均力敵，分別為 37,053 輛和 37,032 輛。

In the fourth quarter, our production pace was defined by an average of 5 stars per community per month, an average sales pace of 4.7 sales per community per month. Importantly, this strategy is not just about the pace of sales, but it's importantly about selling the right homes at the right pace. Our machine matches up unsold production as homes progress towards completion with pricing information from our dynamic pricing model on a community-by-community and home-by-home basis.

在第四季度，我們的生產速度是每個社區每月平均 5 顆星，平均銷售速度是每個社區每月 4.7 次銷售。重要的是，這項策略不僅涉及銷售速度，更重要的是以正確的速度銷售正確的房屋。隨著房屋的完工，我們的機器會根據我們的動態定價模型中逐個社區和逐個家庭的定價資訊來匹配未售出的生產。

In our fourth quarter, as interest rates peaked, this process informed us as to how much we needed to buy down interest rates and/or offer other incentives to maintain the desired pace. We maintained consistent starts and sales paces, generating increased market share in almost all of the markets we build in. This is seen in our overall growth of 10% from last year as our consistent starts have killed the Board of other builders who are pulled back. Some examples of markets where we have a leading and increased market share in 2023 over 2022 are as follows: Here in South Florida, we are ranked as the #1 builder with a market share of 74%, up from 63% a (inaudible) County and 33% in Broward County, up from 28%.

在第四季度，隨著利率達到頂峰，這個過程告訴我們需要降低多少利率和/或提供其他激勵措施以保持所需的速度。我們保持了一致的開工率和銷售速度，在我們建造的幾乎所有市場中都增加了市場份額。這可以從我們去年的整體成長率10% 看出，因為我們一致的開工率已經殺死了其他被撤回的建築商的董事會。我們在 2023 年擁有領先地位且市場份額比 2022 年有所增加的一些市場示例如下： 在南佛羅裡達州，我們排名第一，市場份額為 74%，高於 63%（聽不清）縣和布勞沃德縣的比例為33%，高於28%。

Across the state in Southwest Florida, we have a 38% market share, double that with the #2 builder. In the Carolinas, we are the #1 rank builder in Charlotte, Raleigh and Charleston with market shares of 10.5%, 16% and 22.5%, respectively representing an average increase in share of about 150 basis points.

在佛羅裡達州西南部，我們擁有 38% 的市場份額，是排名第二的建築商的兩倍。在卡羅萊納州，我們在夏洛特、羅利和查爾斯頓排名第一，市佔率分別為 10.5%、16% 和 22.5%，平均市佔率成長約 150 個基點。

In the Midwest, we are #1 in Indianapolis and Minnesota with over 25% market share in each market, an increase of over 400 basis points in each.

在中西部，我們在印第安納波利斯和明尼蘇達州排名第一，每個市場的市佔率均超過 25%，增幅均超過 400 個基點。

In Texas, we have increased market share in each of the markets there. In Austin and Dallas-Fort Worth by 200 basis points to an 11.5% and 10%, respectively. In Houston by 300 basis points to 11.5% and San Antonio by 700 basis points to 22.5%.

在德克薩斯州，我們增加了每個市場的市場份額。奧斯汀和達拉斯-沃斯堡分別上漲了 200 個基點至 11.5% 和 10%。休士頓上漲 300 個基點至 11.5%，聖安東尼奧上漲 700 個基點至 22.5%。

In Colorado, where we ranked #1 with almost 10% market share, which is double that of the #2 builder who has been the perennial market leader.

在科羅拉多州，我們以近 10% 的市佔率排名第一，是常年市場領導者排名第二的建築商的兩倍。

Moving out West, in Phoenix and Las Vegas, we have the #1 share with 12% and 18%, respectively. In California, we're the #1 builder in all of the markets there and have grown a significant market share across the state from 25% in the Inland Empire and Central Valley to more than 35% in San Diego and Sacramento.

向西發展，在鳳凰城和拉斯維加斯，我們的份額分別為 12% 和 18%，位居第一。在加州，我們是該州所有市場中排名第一的建築商，並且在全州範圍內的市場份額已從內陸帝國和中央谷的 25% 增長到聖地亞哥和薩克拉門託的 35% 以上。

And lastly, in the Pacific Northwest, we are the largest in Seattle and Portland with 14% and 17% share, respectively, both an increase of about 250 basis points. The execution of our pricing strategy is based on the strength of each individual market match against the level of production by community in that market. As Stuart noted, the market conditions in our fourth quarter were defined by the chronic shortage in housing supply and a more volatile interest rate environment as compared to greater variations in market strength across our markets that we saw in prior quarters.

最後，在太平洋西北地區，西雅圖和波特蘭的市佔率最大，分別為 14% 和 17%，均成長了約 250 個基點。我們定價策略的執行是基於每個單獨市場的實力與該市場社區的生產水準的匹配。正如史都華所指出的那樣，我們第四季的市場狀況是由房屋供應長期短缺和更波動的利率環境決定的，而我們在前幾個季度看到的市場實力差異更大。

In the current market environment, all markets are benefiting to similar degrees from greater demand and supply. Our sales pace of 4.7 homes per community in Q4 was up from a pace of 3.7 compared to Q4 2022 further demonstrating improvement and executing the strategy of [patients] in Q4 is that it was the same as our overall pace for fiscal 2023. As interest rates rapidly moved higher during the quarter, our homebuilding teams worked with close coordination with Lennar mortgage to find the right mortgage solution, homebuyer by homebuyer.

在當前的市場環境下，所有市場都從需求和供應的增加中受益匪淺。與2022 年第四季相比，我們第四季每個社區的銷售速度為4.7 套，比2022 年第四季的3.7 套有所上升，這進一步證明了第四季度[患者]策略的改善和執行，這與我們2023 財年的總體速度相同。本季利率迅速走高，我們的住宅建築團隊與 Lennar 抵押貸款機構密切合作，為每個購房者找到合適的抵押貸款解決方案。

Focused execution of the process I just described led to completing the quarter with less than one unsold inventory home per community. Our strategy of finding market clearing pricing to match the pace of sales to homes under construction, allows us to maintain both a high volume and a consistent volume of homes under construction, which is the foundation for our Builder of Choice program with our trade partners.

重點執行我剛才描述的流程，使得本季每個社區的未售出庫存房屋少於一棟。我們尋找市場出清定價以匹配在建房屋銷售速度的策略，使我們能夠保持在建房屋的高數量和穩定數量，這是我們與貿易夥伴合作的首選建築商計劃的基礎。

As we continuously improve the way we execute this game plan, we have deepened the partnerships with our trade base. Working together with our trade partners, we have consistently eliminated and/or prevented supply chain constraints and reduced cycle times. These and other efficiencies that benefit our trade partners enable us to lower construction costs in a cooperative manner with our trades. By consistently starting homes, despite the changing interest rate environment during the quarter, we increased our starts in the fourth quarter by 43% from the prior year and starts flat sequentially from Q3. This increase in starts attracts a larger trade base to Lennar together with a normalized supply chain environment, led to another significant improvement in our cycle time.

隨著我們不斷改進執行該遊戲計劃的方式，我們加深了與貿易基地的合作夥伴關係。我們與貿易夥伴合作，始終如一地消除和/或防止供應鏈限制並縮短週期時間。這些和其他有利於我們的貿易夥伴的效率使我們能夠以與我們的行業合作的方式降低建築成本。儘管本季利率環境發生變化，但透過持續開工建設，我們第四季的開工率比去年同期增加了 43%，與第三季的開工率持平。開工率的增加為 Lennar 吸引了更大的貿易基地以及標準化的供應鏈環境，從而使我們的週期時間再次顯著改善。

For the fourth quarter, cycle time decreased by 22 days sequentially from Q3 down to 161 days on average for single-family homes.

第四季度，單戶住宅的平均週期時間比第三季減少了 22 天，降至 161 天。

In most of our markets, this represents being at or close to pre-pandemic cycle times. Looking at the fourth quarter, as expected, our construction costs fell sequentially from Q3 by about 4%. In addition, our Q4 costs were down about 13% on a year-over-year basis. This is the direction of the construction costs we expect in our guidance from last quarter. Moving forward, we expect costs to be consistent with where they are now over the next few quarters. In order to further improve our production efficiencies we are working side-by-side with our trade partners on value engineering, quote plan series and production sequencing across markets to reduce the cost and time to bill with the goal of delivering a greater value to the home buying customer.

在我們的大多數市場中，這代表處於或接近大流行前的周期時間。看看第四季度，正如預期的那樣，我們的建築成本比第三季度環比下降了約4%。此外，我們第四季的成本比去年同期下降了約 13%。這是我們在上季指引中預期的建築成本方向。展望未來，我們預計未來幾季的成本將與現在保持一致。為了進一步提高我們的生產效率，我們正在與我們的貿易夥伴在價值工程、報價計劃系列和跨市場的生產排序方面並肩合作，以降低成本和開票時間，目標是為客戶提供更大的價值。購房客戶。

Next, I'll discuss the execution of our land-light strategy. In the fourth quarter, we continue to effectively work with our strategic land and land bank partners where they purchase land on our behalf and then deliver just-in-time finished homesites to our homebuilding machine as Stuart described.

接下來，我將討論我們的陸光戰略的執行情況。在第四季度，我們繼續與我們的戰略土地和土地銀行合作夥伴有效合作，他們代表我們購買土地，然後按照斯圖爾特的描述，將及時完工的住宅交付給我們的住宅建築機器。

Consistent with the third quarter, about 84% of our $1.5 billion of land acquisition in the quarter with finished home sites purchased from our various land structures. We have made significant progress in the fourth quarter as our year supply of owned homesites improved to 1.4 years from 1.9 years and our controlled home site percentage increased to 76% from 69% year-over-year.

與第三季一致，本季我們 15 億美元的土地收購中約有 84% 是從我們的各種土地結構中購買的成品住宅用地。我們在第四季度取得了重大進展，自有宅基地的年供應量從 1.9 年提高到 1.4 年，我們的自控宅基地百分比從同比 69% 增加到 76%。

The bottom line is focusing on our operating strategies which results in a reduction in cycle time and a reduction in owned land has, as to articulated, increased our cash flow as well as help improve our inventory churn which now stands at 1.5 versus 1.2 last year, a 25% increase.

最重要的是我們的營運策略，這會導致週期時間的縮短和自有土地的減少，明確地說，增加了我們的現金流，並有助於改善我們的庫存流失率，庫存流失率目前為1.5，而去年為1.2 ，增加了25%。

Our community count at the end of the fourth quarter was 1,260, which is up 4% from the year ago period. We expect to increase our community count in the mid- to high single digits by the end of fiscal 2024. I want to recognize and thank all of our associates for their hard work and dedication and focusing on the execution of our strategies and also importantly, for accomplishing the change management needed for the required process changes in implementing these strategies of our machine, while at the same time delivering a very strong fourth quarter in fiscal 2023. I'd now like to turn it over to Diane.

截至第四季末，我們的社區數量為 1,260 個，比去年同期成長 4%。我們預計到 2024 財年末，我們的社區數量將增加到中高個位數。我要表彰並感謝我們所有員工的辛勤工作和奉獻精神以及專注於我們戰略的執行，更重要的是，實現我們機器實施這些策略所需流程變更所需的變更管理，同時在2023 財年第四季實現非常強勁的業績。我現在想將其交給Diane。

Thank you, Jon, good morning. So Stuart and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our financial services operations and our balance sheet and then provide some comments on the first quarter. So looking at financial services. For the fourth quarter, the Financial Services team had operating earnings of $168 million. Mortgage operating earnings were $119 million compared to $80 million in the prior year. The increase in earnings was driven by higher lot volume as a result of higher orders and capture rate and higher profit per lot to loan as a result of higher secondary margins and lower cost per loan as the team continues to focus on efficiencies.

謝謝你，喬恩，早安。因此，史都華和喬恩為我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間介紹我們的金融服務業務和資產負債表的結果，然後對第一季提出一些評論。所以著眼於金融服務。第四季度，金融服務團隊的營業收入為 1.68 億美元。抵押貸款營業利潤為 1.19 億美元，而前一年為 8,000 萬美元。收益成長的推動因素是訂單量和捕獲率的提高導致的批量增加，以及由於團隊繼續關注效率而提高的二級利潤和每筆貸款的成本降低導致每批貸款的利潤增加。

Total operating earnings were $50 million compared to $44 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased primarily as a result of higher volumes and greater productivity as the team continues to embrace technology to run a more efficient business. These following results were accomplished as a result of great synergies between our homebuilding and financial services team. They truly operate under the banner of 1 Lennar.

總營業收入為 5,000 萬美元，上一年為 4,400 萬美元。產權收入的成長主要是由於團隊繼續採用技術來經營更有效率的業務，從而實現了銷售量的增加和生產力的提高。以下這些成果是我們住宅建築和金融服務團隊之間巨大協同作用的結果。他們真正在 1 Lennar 的旗幟下運作。

Now turning to our balance sheet. This quarter, once again, we were steadfast in our determination to churn our inventory and generate cash by maintaining production and pricing homes to market with the goal of delivering as many homes as possible to meet housing demand. The results of these actions was that we ended the quarter with $6.3 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.6 billion revolving credit facility. This provided a total of $8.9 billion of homebuilding liquidity. As a result of our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency, we once again, as Jon mentioned, made significant progress on our goal of becoming asset-light. At quarter end, our years owned improved to 1.4 years from 1.9 years in the prior year, and our homesite control increased to 76% from 69% in the prior year our lowest years owned and highest controlled percent in our history.

現在轉向我們的資產負債表。本季度，我們再次堅定決心透過維持生產和按市場定價房屋來減少庫存並產生現金，目標是交付盡可能多的房屋來滿足住房需求。這些行動的結果是，我們在本季結束時擁有 63 億美元的現金，且 26 億美元的循環信貸額度沒有任何借款。這總共提供了 89 億美元的房屋建設流動資金。由於我們持續關注資產負債表效率，正如喬恩所提到的那樣，我們在輕資產目標方面再次取得了重大進展。截至季末，我們的擁有年限從上一年的1.9 年增加到1.4 年，我們的主場控制權從上一年的69% 增加到76%，這是我們歷史上最低的擁有年限和最高的控制百分比。

At quarter end, we owned just under 100,000 homesites and control 310,000 homesites for a total of 410,000 homesites. We believe this portfolio provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow market share in a capital-efficient way. We spent $1.5 billion on land purchases this quarter with 84% being finished homesites where vertical construction will soon begin. This is consistent with our manufacturing model of buying land on a just-in-time basis, which is less capital intensive.

截至季末，我們擁有近 10 萬個宅基地，並控制 31 萬個宅基地，總計 41 萬個宅基地。我們相信，該投資組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續擴大市場份額。本季我們花了 15 億美元購買土地，其中 84% 已完工，垂直建設即將開始。這與我們及時購買土地的製造模式是一致的，這種模式的資本密集程度較低。

And finally, looking at the churns, our inventory churn was 1.5x, and our return on inventory was 29%. Let me make one comment about our inventory balance. This quarter, we reclassed deposits on future land purchases from inventory to a separate line on our balance sheet. This request, which was about $2 billion at year-end, was made to better align ourselves with most participants in our industry and thus brings greater comparability and less confusion to the investor and analyst communities. During the quarter, and consistent with our production focus, we started about 18,400 homes and ended the quarter with approximately 38,200 total homes in inventory. This inventory number includes about 2,200 models and also includes about 1,200 homes that were completed and sold, which is slightly less than one home per community as we successfully manage our finished inventory levels.

最後，從流失率來看，我們的庫存流失率為 1.5 倍，庫存回報率為 29%。讓我對我們的庫存平衡發表一點評論。本季度，我們將未來土地購買的存款從庫存重新分類到資產負債表上的單獨一行。這項要求在年底約為 20 億美元，旨在更好地與行業中的大多數參與者保持一致，從而為投資者和分析師群體帶來更大的可比性並減少混亂。在本季度，與我們的生產重點一致，我們開工了約 18,400 套房屋，本季末庫存房屋總數約為 38,200 套。該庫存數量包括約 2,200 個模型，還包括約 1,200 套已竣工和銷售的房屋，由於我們成功管理了成品庫存水平，因此略少於每個社區一套房屋。

In our continued effort to further strengthen and derisk our balance sheet by reducing our debt balances, as we've mentioned in the fourth quarter, we redeemed the remaining balance $378 million of our (inaudible) during December 2023 and repurchased $110 million of senior notes during fiscal 2024 and 2027 all at or below par for a quarterly total of $488 million.

正如我們在第四季度提到的，我們不斷努力透過減少債務餘額來進一步加強資產負債表並降低風險，我們在2023 年12 月贖回了剩餘餘額3.78 億美元（聽不清楚），並回購了1.1 億美元的優先票據2024 財年和 2027 財年，季度總額為 4.88 億美元，全部等於或低於標準水準。

For the full year, we repaid or reduced $1.1 billion of senior notes. As a result of these debt reduction initiatives, we ended the quarter with a total senior note balance of about $2.5 billion. There is only one note due in 2024, which is $454 million due in April. Combined with strong earnings, our homebuilding debt to total capital was 9.6% at quarter end, our lowest ever which is an improvement from 14.4% in the prior year. Consistent with our commitment to strategic capital allocation, we repurchased $3 million of our outstanding shares was $337 million in the fourth quarter. And for the year, we repurchased 10 million shares totaling $1.1 billion.

全年，我們償還或減少了 11 億美元的優先票據。由於這些債務削減舉措，本季末我們的優先票據餘額總額約為 25 億美元。只有一張 2024 年到期的票據，即 4 月到期的 4.54 億美元。加上強勁的盈利，截至季度末，我們的住宅建築債務佔總資本的比例為 9.6%，為歷史最低水平，較上一年的 14.4% 有所改善。根據我們對策略資本配置的承諾，我們在第四季度回購了 300 萬美元的已發行股票，價值 3.37 億美元。今年，我們回購了 1,000 萬股股票，總價值達 11 億美元。

Additionally, we paid dividends of $105 million during the quarter and $431 million for the year. So in total, we returned almost $1 billion to our equity and debt holders in the fourth quarter and about $2.7 billion for the full fiscal year.

此外，我們在本季支付了 1.05 億美元的股息，在全年支付了 4.31 億美元的股息。因此，我們在第四季總共向股權和債務持有人返還了近 10 億美元，整個財年返還了約 27 億美元。

Another few final points regarding our balance sheet, our stockholders' equity increased to almost $27 billion, and our book value per share increased to $94.61.

關於我們的資產負債表的最後幾點是，我們的股東權益增加到近 270 億美元，每股帳面價值增加到 94.61 美元。

In summary, the strength of our balance sheet and strong liquidity position, provides us with significant confidence and financial flexibility as we enter 2024.

總之，我們的資產負債表實力和強勁的流動性狀況為我們進入 2024 年提供了巨大的信心和財務靈活性。

So with that please overview, I'd like to turn to Q1. Given the evolving interest rate environment, we'd like to once again provide some guidelines for Q1 to assist with your modeling. Starting with new orders, we expect Q1 new orders to be in the range of 17,500 to 18,000 homes as we keep production pace and sales pace closely aligned. We anticipate our Q1 deliveries to be in the range of 16,500 and 17,000 homes with a continued focus on efficiently churning inventory into cash. Our Q1 average sales price should be about $420,000 and we expect gross margins to be in the range of 21% to 21.25%, indicating some impact from higher interest rates in Q4. Additionally, also remember that our Q1 margins are always negatively impacted by the current period expensing of fuel costs.

概述完畢後，我想談談 Q1。鑑於不斷變化的利率環境，我們希望再次為第一季提供一些指南，以幫助您進行建模。從新訂單開始，我們預計第一季新訂單將在 17,500 至 18,000 套房屋之間，因為我們保持生產速度和銷售速度緊密結合。我們預計第一季的交付量將在 16,500 至 17,000 套房屋之間，並將繼續致力於有效地將庫存轉化為現金。我們第一季的平均銷售價格應該約為 42 萬美元，我們預計毛利率將在 21% 至 21.25% 之間，這表明第四季度利率上升會產生一些影響。此外，請記住，我們第一季的利潤率始終受到當期燃料成本費用的負面影響。

While we are working towards an even slow process of starting and constructing homes on a fairly consistent quarterly basis, revenues in Q1 are the lowest of the year because of seasonality. So for this Q1, the current period of expensing will have a negative gross margin impact of approximately 150 basis points when you look sequentially from Q4. Also on note, consistent with last year, the first quarter will be a low point of margins during 2024.

雖然我們正在努力以相當穩定的季度基礎開始和建造房屋，但由於季節性原因，第一季的收入是全年最低的。因此，對於第一季度，當您從第四季度開始依次查看時，當前期間的費用將對毛利率產生約 150 個基點的負面影響。另請注意，與去年一致，第一季將是 2024 年利潤率的低點。

Turning to SG&A, we expect to be in the range of 8% to 8.2% for Q1 and for the combined homebuilding joint venture land sales and other categories, we expect to have earnings of about $20 million. We anticipate our financial services earnings for Q1 to be in the range of $85 million to $90 million, and we expect a loss of about $25 million for our multifamily business and a loss of about $15 million for the Lennar other category. The Lennar other estimate does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments through our public technology investments since that adjustment will be determined by their stock prices at the end of the quarter.

談到SG&A，我們預計第一季的成長將在8​​%至8.2%之間，對於合併的住宅建築合資企業土地銷售和其他類別，我們預計收益約為2000萬美元。我們預計第一季的金融服務收入將在 8,500 萬美元至 9,000 萬美元之間，我們預計多戶型業務將損失約 2,500 萬美元，Lennar 其他類別將損失約 1,500 萬美元。 Lennar 的其他估計不包括透過我們的公共技術投資進行的任何潛在的按市價調整，因為該調整將由季度末的股價決定。

We expect our Q1 corporate G&A to be about 2.2% of total revenues. These expenses are likely to turned up a bit as we continue to invest in cybersecurity and technology development that is robust and durable to support our future growth and our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivered. We expect our tax rate to be about 24.5% and the weighted average share count should be approximately 279 million shares.

我們預計第一季公司管理及行政費用將佔總營收的 2.2% 左右。隨著我們繼續投資網路安全和技術開發，這些費用可能會增加，這些技術強大而持久，可以支持我們未來的成長，而且我們的慈善基金會捐款將以每套交付的房屋1,000 美元為基礎。我們預計稅率約為 24.5%，加權平均股數約為 2.79 億股。

In [somewhat] combined basis, these estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $2.15 to $2.20 per share for the first quarter.

在[某種程度上]合併的基礎上，這些估計應產生第一季每股收益約 2.15 至 2.20 美元。

And then finally, just to reiterate a few notes on fiscal 2024. As we indicated, we affirm our target of 10% delivery growth in 2024, which will result in approximately 80,000 deliveries for the year. And for gross margin, as Stuart mentioned, we expect to maintain the levels produced in 2023. Whilst we also remain confident in our cash flow generation. As such, we continue to be committed to allocating capital to our stakeholders. We're targeting a total capital allocation of at least $2.5 billion for 2024 remembering that $454 million will be allotted to our April 2024 debt maturity and the balance of roughly $2 billion to share repurchases.

最後，重申一下關於 2024 財年的一些注意事項。正如我們所指出的，我們確認 2024 年交付量增長 10% 的目標，這將導致全年交付量約為 80,000 架。至於毛利率，正如史都華所提到的，我們預計將維持 2023 年的水準。同時我們對現金流的產生也仍然充滿信心。因此，我們繼續致力於向利害關係人分配資本。我們的目標是 2024 年總資本配置至少為 25 億美元，其中 4.54 億美元將分配給我們 2024 年 4 月到期的債務，其餘約 20 億美元將用於股票回購。

I'd like to end by sincerely thanking the Lennar financial team, accounting, planning and IR for their combined great efforts that allow us to host our year-end earnings call 2 weeks after year-end, you guys are amazing. And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

最後，我要真誠地感謝 Lennar 財務團隊、會計、規劃和投資者關係團隊的共同努力，使我們能夠在年底後兩週舉辦年終財報電話會議，你們太棒了。然後，讓我把它交給接線員。

We will now begin the question-and-answer session of today's conference. (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Stephen Kim from Evercore ISI.

我們現在開始今天會議的問答環節。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Stephen Kim。

Great. Yes, so much great information you provided. I imagine folks will be asking you about a little bit more detail on the gross margin. So what I actually wanted to focus on was your balance sheet. And in particular, you ended the year with very heavy level of cash, over $6 billion, I think, on the homebuilding cash. And I was curious what you feel sort of a normal level once all the dust settles and you get to a level of cash where you feel sort of sustainable and appropriate to sustain over the long-term. What that level roughly would be, how we should think about that?

偉大的。是的，您提供了很多有用的信息。我想人們會問你有關毛利率的更多細節。所以我真正想關注的是你的資產負債表。特別是，你們在年底擁有大量現金，我認為超過 60 億美元用於住房建設現金。我很好奇，一旦一切塵埃落定，你的現金水平達到了一個讓你感覺可持續且適合長期維持的水平，你會感覺什麼是正常水平。這個水平大概是多少，我們該如何思考？

And related to that, given that I assume $6 billion is probably more than that number, I'm guessing by maybe a couple of billion or something like that. Your $2 billion in share repurchases that you sort of set at the baseline level seems frankly a little low, given that we're expecting you guys to generate cash flow and so forth this year. So I was wondering if you could help us understand how we should be thinking about your cash balance going forward? And what it would take for you to apply more of that to repurchases. And I guess I should have specified that. I'm curious if you could articulate why you're willing to hold more cash than you need at this time?

與此相關的是，考慮到我假設 60 億美元可能比這個數字多，我猜測可能多了幾十億或類似的數字。坦白說，考慮到我們預計你們今年會產生現金流等，你們在基準水平上設定的 20 億美元股票回購似乎有點低。所以我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解我們應該如何考慮您未來的現金餘額？以及如何才能將更多資金用於回購。我想我應該要明確這一點。我很好奇你是否能解釋為什麼你現在願意持有比你需要的更多的現金？

Well, Steve, let me start by saying you know the old adage rich or poor it's good to have cash, right? So just starting there, I would say that we're really rolling into the nuance in developing a by-design approach to the way that we operate our business. And as is the case with evolution in general, you kind of grow into with some stops and starts, the new version of how you kind of look at the way you've configured. So I would say this. We're starting to look at our cash flow numbers, cash flow generation. We're starting to see kind of a consistency year-over-year in the kind of a baseline in the $3 billion, $3.5 billion range. You'll probably see in our Q that or in our K that, that number will be higher for 2023, but the amount of consistent annual cash flow is something that we're watching develop over time.

好吧，史蒂夫，首先我要說的是，你知道這句古老的格言，無論貧富，有現金都是好事，對吧？因此，從這裡開始，我想說，我們確實正在深入研究我們經營業務方式的設計方法的細微差別。就像一般進化的情況一樣，你會經歷一些停頓和開始，你會逐漸成長為你如何看待你的配置方式的新版本。所以我會這麼說。我們開始關注我們的現金流數字、現金流產生。我們開始看到 30 億至 35 億美元範圍內的基線與去年同期保持一致。您可能會在我們的 Q 或 K 中看到，2023 年這個數字會更高，但我們正在觀察持續的年度現金流量隨著時間的推移而發展。

So when you ask this question that fits into the context of how do we think about the certainties of the programming that we have in place. As I noted in my comments, one of the interesting things of this past year was looking at the durability of our land banking relationships, the capital providers and the execution in and around land banks as markets become stressed.

因此，當你問這個問題時，這個問題符合我們如何思考現有規劃的確定性的背景。正如我在評論中指出的那樣，過去一年中有趣的事情之一是隨著市場壓力的增加，我們的土地儲備關係、資本提供者以及土地儲備內部和周圍的執行情況的持久性。

There's been a tremendous amount of learning around that and evolution. So the answer to the question is we kind of see our steady state cash flow is developing around $3 billion, $3.5 billion a year. How much cash we feel comfortable holding is something that we're -- we recognize that maybe $6 billion or $5 billion or $7 billion. Some might say that, that's too much as we gain confidence as we start looking at buying design approaches to the component parts of what's developing into Lennar machine. We're going to be increasing the amount that we return to shareholders through stock buybacks and other mechanisms. And so we might be a bit behind the curve that people perceive right now, we're going slower rather than faster as we develop new core components to our strategy that are becoming etched in stone and where we're developing confidence.

圍繞這一點和進化有大量的學習。所以問題的答案是，我們看到我們的穩態現金流正在成長，每年 35 億美元，大約 30 億美元。我們認為持有多少現金是我們所認為的——我們認識到可能是 60 億美元、50 億美元或 70 億美元。有些人可能會說，這太過分了，因為當我們開始考慮購買正在開發的 Lennar 機器組件的設計方法時，我們獲得了信心。我們將透過股票回購和其他機制增加股東回報。因此，我們可能有點落後於人們現在認為的曲線，當我們為我們的策略開發新的核心組成部分時，我們的進展速度會更慢而不是更快，這些組成部分正在成為銘刻在石頭上，我們正在建立信心。

So again, it might be a little slower than some might think it should be, but we are hitting stride with our comfort zone in buying back stock and thinking about the deployment of liquid assets.

所以，這可能比一些人想像的要慢一些，但我們在回購股票和考慮流動資產的部署方面正在邁向舒適區。

That's really helpful because, obviously, you're undergoing a very significant transformation, and I think I'm hearing a lot of steady state. I'm hearing a lot of predictability in what you're laying out. And obviously, that's something that we think is critically important to an eventual revaluation. It just seems like when you had initially -- when you started off your comments, you said it's good to have cash, but I think when you're arguing for a revaluation, some of the investors that we speak with would argue that holding too much cash actually is a hindrance to a revaluation because it effectively seems like the company may be holding on to cash with the hope that they could deploy it in some sort of traditional way, i.e., land or something like that, which maybe isn't in line with what a lot of the rhetoric around being asset-light is.

這確實很有幫助，因為顯然，您正在經歷非常重大的轉變，而且我認為我聽到了很多穩定狀態。我聽到你所闡述的內容有很多可預測性。顯然，我們認為這對最終的重估至關重要。看起來就像當你最初發表評論時，你說擁有現金很好，但我認為當你主張重估時，與我們交談的一些投資者會認為持有現金太大量現金實際上是重估的障礙，因為實際上看起來該公司可能持有現金，希望能夠以某種傳統方式進行部署，即土地或類似的東西，但這可能不是這與許多關於輕資產的言論是一致的。

So your commentary about this is a period of time where you were sort of gradually developing the systems to the point where you have that predictability, I guess it's helpful. So if I'm interpreting your comments right, we should basically expect the level of cash to come down to a more -- to maybe a lower level, once you have established those systems to your satisfaction, but you're not there yet. Is that a proper way of paraphrasing what you're saying?

因此，您對此的評論是在一段時間內您逐漸開發系統直至具有可預測性的程度，我認為這很有幫助。因此，如果我對你的評論的理解是正確的，那麼一旦你建立了令你滿意的系統，我們基本上應該期望現金水平會下降到一個更高的水平，也許會更低，但你還沒有達到那個水平。這是解釋你所說內容的正確方式嗎？

Thank you for the commentary. I think that helps me answer a little bit better. And let me say that we are decidedly not holding on to cash to execute the next large-scale M&A program or some out-of-the-box growth program. So we are (inaudible) that thought process. It simply is -- and this past year has been an incredible year for our company in terms of developing the confidence around durable systems that are actually working very well. It's been a proving ground and so I would say, don't read too much into the holding of cash. It simply is the development of confidence and stride in terms of the way that we deploy liquid assets.

謝謝您的評論。我認為這有助於我更好地回答。我要說的是，我們絕對不會持有現金來執行下一個大規模併購計畫或一些現成的成長計畫。所以我們就是（聽不清楚）那個思考過程。事實就是這樣——過去的一年對我們公司來說是令人難以置信的一年，我們建立了對實際上運作良好的耐用系統的信心。這是一個試驗場，所以我想說，不要過度解讀持有現金。這只是我們在配置流動資產方面的信心與進步。

Okay. That's helpful. I really appreciate it. There was some news very recently regarding the marketing of your rental portfolio. I was wondering if you could put some context around that for us because we got a lot of questions from folks around whether this is something that we should be expecting to provide a cash infusion even above and beyond the normal operations would generate.

好的。這很有幫助。對此，我真的非常感激。最近有一些關於您的租賃組合行銷的新聞。我想知道您是否能為我們提供一些背景信息，因為我們收到了很多人的疑問，我們是否應該期望提供超出正常運營所產生的現金注入。

So look, I think that the base answer to that question is, we'll see. The determination to market portfolio was driven by limited partners. And the timing is one where it's kind of a suboptimal time to be thinking about a sale, although who knows where interest rates go, that could change quickly. So we'll see what happens. There might or might not be. This is an episodic kind of program where it will happen or it won't, but it won't be material to the either the balance sheet or the income statement company. I'm sure if there's any profit would be discounted. And in terms of the cash infusion, it would simply be additive to our cash position and might even inspire us to do more stock buyback. So we'll just have to wait and see on that. I don't think there's any additional guidance that could be given at this point.

所以，我認為這個問題的基本答案是，我們拭目以待。行銷投資組合的決心是由有限合夥人推動的。現在並不是考慮出售的最佳時機，儘管誰知道利率會走向何方，但這可能很快就會改變。所以我們會看看會發生什麼。可能有也可能沒有。這是一種間歇性的計劃，它會發生或不會發生，但它對公司的資產負債表或損益表都不會產生重大影響。我確信如果有任何利潤的話一定會打折。就現金注入而言，這只會增加我們的現金狀況，甚至可能激勵我們進行更多股票回購。所以我們只能拭目以待。我認為目前無法提供任何額外的指導。

Next, we'll go to the line of Alan Ratner from Zelman & Associates.

接下來，我們將介紹來自 Zelman & Associates 的 Alan Ratner。

Yes, thanks for all the detail, and congrats on the great performance this year. Stuart, I'd love to get your thoughts because I heard a lot in the commentary about the tailwinds that you guys had over the course of this year related to tight inventory and the interest rate move these last few days or weeks has been obviously striking. But I think one of the great unknowns and uncertainty is what impact that does have on the resale market as far as potentially freeing up some inventory and getting some people to move. And obviously, there's puts and takes to that on your business. But what is your expectation there assuming kind of rates settle out near current levels as far as what that could do to the resale market and how the new home market might react to higher inventory levels in '24.

是的，感謝所有細節，並祝賀今年的出色表現。斯圖爾特，我很想聽聽你的想法，因為我在評論中聽到了很多關於今年以來與庫存緊張有關的順風車的評論，而過去幾天或幾週的利率變動顯然是引人注目的。但我認為最大的未知數和不確定性之一是，這對轉售市場會產生什麼影響，可能會釋放一些庫存並讓一些人搬家。顯然，您的業務有很多變化。但是，假設利率穩定在當前水準附近，您的期望是什麼，這會對轉售市場產生什麼影響，以及新房市場可能對 24 年更高的庫存水準有何反應。

Yes. Really interesting question, Alan. I thought about this a lot over the past year as the resale market has appropriately held down to mortgages that are very attractive interest rates and therefore, have not added to the traditional supply that defines the resale market. But the more I think about it and test my thinking, it just seems to me to be a zero-sum game if the resale market is activated by a tick down in interest rates, which it might be because in traditional fashion, first-time buyers find that the family is growing and they move-up to -- to a move-up, second move-up position.

是的。非常有趣的問題，艾倫。在過去的一年裡，我對此進行了很多思考，因為轉售市場適當地壓低了利率非常有吸引力的抵押貸款，因此，沒有增加定義轉售市場的傳統供應。但我越多思考並檢驗我的想法，在我看來，如果利率下降激活轉售市場，這似乎是一場零和遊戲，這可能是因為在傳統方式中，第一次買家發現家庭正在成長，他們的職位也隨之提升。

It does seem to me that to the extent that interest rates do activate the resale market and additional supply thumbs on the market along with that supply comes additional demand because what has been missing from the market is the traditional resale buyer looking for that move-up home and decided the first-time market have been very thirsty for new home product because the traditional resale product simply hasn't been available. So I suspect if the existing home market is activated as interest rates do trend down, should they trend down, that it will result both in additional supply for a first-time buyer and additional demand for the move-up buyer. And we've been thinking a lot about that. And I think that we're very well prepared for that migration as well.

在我看來，利率確實激活了轉售市場，市場上的額外供應隨著供應的增加而產生了額外的需求，因為市場上缺少的是尋求這種提升的傳統轉售買家並認為首次市場非常渴望新的家居產品，因為傳統的轉售產品根本不可用。因此，我懷疑，如果現有的房屋市場隨著利率下降而被激活，那麼這將導致首次購房者的額外供應和升級買家的額外需求。我們一直在思考這個問題。我認為我們也為這次遷移做好了充分的準備。

Great. Appreciate your thoughts on that topic. Second, on the margin, interesting. So you're not giving formal full year guidance, but I guess we can certainly piece together your expectations by you saying that you expect full year margins to be pretty similar to '23. So that would imply a fairly healthy ramp through the year. I was hoping you can just give us maybe specifics on what type of trajectory on incentives does that imply? I would imagine land costs are going to be trending up in terms of what's flowing through the P&L. So should we just interpret that as your expectation that incentive should come down 200, 300-plus basis points over the course of the year from where they sit today.

偉大的。感謝您對此主題的想法。其次，在邊緣，有趣。所以你沒有給出正式的全年指導，但我想我們當然可以透過你說你預計全年利潤率與 23 年非常相似來拼湊你的期望。因此，這意味著全年將出現相當健康的成長。我希望您能給我們具體說明這代表什麼類型的激勵軌跡？我認為，就流經損益表的內容而言，土地成本將會呈現上升趨勢。因此，我們是否應該將其解釋為您期望激勵措施在這一年中應比目前的水平下降 200、300 多個基點。

So if you go back to the days when seasonality was the norm, and we went on the seasonality hiatus for a period of time. That was always the case. The trajectory of our margin started lower in the first quarter and accelerated through the year. And I think Diane detailed that in her comments. That's all -- that has been the case. I think that in our case, specifically, as we went through the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter was a pretty rugged interest rate quarter, especially as we went through the first couple of months. And so I think that you have kind of an anomalous margin push down in our first quarter. I think that you're going to see a normal flow of margin improvement as we go through the year. I think the more extreme incentivization in the fourth quarter to maintain pace was -- it looks today as it's really a thing of the past at that level.

因此，如果你回到季節性為常態的日子，我們經歷了季節性中斷一段時間。情況總是如此。我們的利潤率從第一季開始下降，全年加速。我認為黛安在她的評論中詳細說明了這一點。就是這樣——情況就是這樣。我認為，就我們而言，具體來說，當我們經歷第四季度時，第四季度是一個相當崎嶇的利率季度，特別是當我們經歷前幾個月時。因此，我認為第一季的利潤率出現了異常下降。我認為，隨著這一年的發展，你會看到利潤率的正常成長。我認為第四季度保持步伐的更極端的激勵措施是——今天看起來，在那個水平上，這確實已經成為過去。

And as we look at where our margin is likely to go, I think we have pretty good visibility because we went through November and then early December and seeing the market kind of ease up and the buyers come back to the market as interest rates did start to ease.

當我們審視我們的利潤率可能走向的方向時，我認為我們有很好的能見度，因為我們經歷了11 月和12 月初，看到市場有所緩和，隨著利率確實開始，買家又回到市場緩解。

Jon, do you want to weigh in that?

喬恩，你想權衡一下嗎？

I would agree with what you said, Stuart. In addition, we did see as we moved into sort of the holiday season at the end of the quarter, less of a rebound as interest rates came down due to the holiday seasonality, which is sort of normal. I also think that we should expect that we're a real focus on not just the fact that rates are lower, but more effective use of adjustable rates in order to bring down the cost of mortgage buydowns. The buyer still is in need of a lower effective interest rate to both qualify and afford homes at today's prices.

我同意你所說的，史都華。此外，我們確實看到，隨著季度末進入假期季節，由於假期季節性導致利率下降，反彈幅度較小，這是正常現象。我還認為，我們應該期望我們不僅真正關注利率較低的事實，而且更有效地利用可調整利率，以降低抵押貸款購買成本。買家仍然需要較低的實際利率，才能以當今的價格購買和購買房屋。

Next, we'll go to the line of Kenneth Zener from Seaport Research Partners.

接下來，我們將討論來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Kenneth Zener。

Good morning, everybody. A key part of even flow cadence is structuring land as a variable cost. I think, a very meaningful innovation for you guys. But can you quantify what percent of your closings have been coming from these finished homesites that average 85% to 90% of your purchases this year. So how -- what percent of the closings came from these finished homesites in the quarter? If you could give us some context, that would be useful versus last year or earlier this year. And then this is the key question, quantify the margin impact that you're making versus the asset efficiency that you're achieving? Because I think the latter point is misunderstood. That's my first question.

大家早安。均勻流動節奏的關鍵部分是將土地建構成可變成本。我認為，這對你們來說是非常有意義的創新。但您能否量化一下，您的成交量中，有多少百分比來自這些已完工的住宅區，這些住宅區平均佔您今年購買量的 85% 至 90%？那麼，本季這些完工住宅的成交量佔了多少百分比呢？如果您能為我們提供一些背景信息，那麼與去年或今年早些時候相比，這將會很有用。然後這是關鍵問題，量化您所產生的利潤影響與您所實現的資產效率？因為我認為後一點被誤解了。這是我的第一個問題。

Well, I can just jump in. So in the fourth quarter, about 48% of our deliveries were in the templates that we purchased from third parties. I don't know what it was at the beginning of the year, but I'm sure it turns it up every quarter, and I think that we should expect to see that trending up in 2024 as we continue to become even more land lighter, we just seem laying on our balance sheet and having more control.

好吧，我可以直接插話了。所以在第四季度，我們大約 48% 的交付都是使用從第三方購買的模板。我不知道今年年初的情況，但我確信每個季度都會出現這種情況，而且我認為隨著我們繼續變得更加輕量化，我們應該期望在 2024 年看到這一趨勢。 ，我們似乎只是在調整我們的資產負債表並擁有更多的控制權。

There was a second part to.

還有第二部分。

The margin impact versus the asset efficiency.

利潤率影響與資產效率。

Yes. So I think if you look big picture, it's a growing number, but I would say that it's probably 20 or 30 basis points is probably a good incremental probably grow as we increase that percentage. But for analysis about 20 or 30 basis points. .

是的。所以我認為，如果你從大局來看，這個數字正在不斷增長，但我想說，這可能是20 或30 個基點，這可能是一個很好的增量，隨著我們增加這個百分比，可能會增長。但對於分析來說大約有20或30個基點。 。

Excellent. And then I think the second item, and I think this is more about messaging, and we've spoken about this in the past, but investors are seeking clarity on net income to cash flow and buybacks. I realize your company is evolving as you reduce your land exposure, but just generally as a heuristic, could you kind of inform the statement, I think, Diane, you might have said this, actually, that the balance of cash flow will go to share repurchases absent debt payments. Is that a simple rule of thumb that is guiding your company? And Stuart, I think you were highlighting that you're not looking for large land deals. So I think with the simple heuristic people would have more confidence in that application of your cash flow.

出色的。然後我想到第二項，我認為這更多的是關於資訊傳遞，我們過去已經討論過這一點，但投資者正在尋求淨利潤、現金流和回購的明確性。我意識到，隨著你減少土地風險，你的公司正在不斷發展，但一般來說，作為一種啟發，你能否告知這份聲明，我想，黛安，你可能已經說過了，實際上，現金流的餘額將流向回購未償還債務的股份。這是指導您公司的簡單經驗法則嗎？斯圖爾特，我認為您強調您並不是在尋求大型土地交易。因此，我認為透過簡單的啟發式，人們會對現金流的應用更有信心。

Yes, I think that's a good characterization for right now. But what I'm trying to articulate is that we are evolving our thinking in this regard. I want to say emphatically that we're not looking for and holding back for large land deals. We're not looking for and holding back for M&A transactions. So let's say that that's not the direction that we're going right now. And that the cash flow generated -- both conservatively right now, allocation between debt retirement as debt comes to and the remainder for stock buyback.

是的，我認為目前這是一個很好的描述。但我想表達的是，我們正在發展這方面的想法。我想強調的是，我們並不是在尋找或阻止大型土地交易。我們不會尋找或阻止併購交易。因此，我們可以說這不是我們現在的方向。所產生的現金流－目前保守地講，是在債務償還時的債務清償和剩餘的股票回購之間進行分配。

And I think, Ken, I would also just add as it relates to that, you might be referring to the fact that in prior quarters and prior years, we did a fair amount of early redemption on our future senior notes. And obviously, because we really want to -- I've always said that while the debt to total capital ratio is important. I think what's perhaps more important in my mind, there's a little be nominal dollars on your balance sheet. And so we really wanted to take down the nominal dollars of senior note balance and normally were at $2.5 billion it feels like there isn't quite the need to keep pulling debt forward. We can just kind of pay it down in an orderly fashion as it becomes due. So that's what I was thinking about it at the moment.

我想，肯，我還要補充一點，與此相關的是，您可能指的是在前幾個季度和前幾年中，我們對未來的高級票據進行了大量的提前贖回。顯然，因為我們真的想——我總是說，雖然債務與總資本的比率很重要。我認為在我看來也許更重要的是，你的資產負債表上有一點名義上的美元。因此，我們確實想降低優先票據餘額的名目美元，通常為 25 億美元，感覺沒有必要繼續向前推進債務。我們可以在到期時以有序的方式償還債務。這就是我此刻的想法。

Next, we'll go to the line of Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將邀請摩根大通的麥可‧雷豪特 (Michael Rehaut)。

Good morning, everyone, or I guess, almost good afternoon. Thanks for all the comments so far. And also, congrats on the fast turnaround after year-end that is very impressive. So I would agree with Diane's comments earlier. I wanted to first zero in a little bit on SG&A and corporate G&A for the first quarter. It looks like you're having revenue growth expectations alongside the -- predominantly driven by the higher closings. But negative leverage, I guess, on both metrics by a pretty decent margin given the double-digit revenue growth outlook. So I just want to understand the drivers of that. I know you said on the corporate G&A, there's more investments. So maybe just talking a little bit more on SG&A. If there's higher commissions or other factors that we should be aware of? And on a full year basis, should we expect SG&A and corporate G&A leverage outside of just this first quarter dynamic?

大家早安，或者我想，差不多下午好。感謝迄今為止的所有評論。另外，恭喜年底後的快速週轉，這是非常令人印象深刻的。所以我同意黛安之前的評論。我想在第一季的 SG&A 和公司 G&A 方面先將其歸零。看起來你的營收成長預期主要是由較高的成交額所推動的。但我認為，考慮到兩位數的營收成長前景，負槓桿率在這兩個指標上都有相當不錯的幅度。所以我只想了解其驅動因素。我知道你說過在公司一般管理費用上有更多的投資。所以也許只是多談談 SG&A。是否有更高的佣金或其他我們應該注意的因素？就全年而言，除了第一季的動態之外，我們是否應該預期 SG&A 和企業 G&A 槓桿？

Yes. So I think, Mike, as we've been articulating, we have been seeing a little bit more broker participation (inaudible) a little challenging at certain times, we've been utilizing brokers judiciously, certainly using tiered programs and the like to I'm sure that we are capturing sales, but spending dollars judiciously. Additionally, as you heard us talk about, the machine, a very big part of that is the lead generation on the digital side, how do we get more leads into the funnel so that we have higher conversion rates. And so we've been, again, judiciously spending dollars on that spend because we believe that in the end, that will really produce a higher net margin for us because it's less costly than brokers or other things. So I think those are the 2 areas that have really been impacting our SG&A in the last few quarters.

是的。所以我認為，麥克，正如我們一直在闡述的那樣，我們看到更多的經紀人參與（聽不清）在某些時候有點具有挑戰性，我們一直在明智地利用經紀人，當然使用分層計劃等來我我確信我們會抓住銷售機會，但會明智地花錢。此外，正如您聽到我們談論的那樣，機器，其中很大一部分是數位方面的潛在客戶生成，我們如何將更多潛在客戶引入管道，以便我們獲得更高的轉換率。因此，我們再次明智地在該支出上花費美元，因為我們相信最終，這確實會為我們帶來更高的淨利潤，因為它比經紀人或其他事物的成本更低。因此，我認為這兩個領域在過去幾季中真正影響了我們的銷售及管理費用。

Yes. Well, that was that was a great articulation of the operational side, but that's good Diane. But the fact is that as we've gone through this, the ups and downs of the past year with interest rates, the use of our digital platform has really been a learning curve and has challenged us to get better and better and better. And while we have great affection for and engagement with our realtor community, we certainly don't want to incur costs that we don't have to incur. And so we have been working carefully to make sure we're managing the balance between the necessary engagement with realtors and what we can actually accomplish organically through our digital platform, and that is rippling through our SG&A. We've seen the realtor spend and some of the marketing spend tick up as we have driven to maintain sales pace. So we're seeing some of that. It's going to be a story of evolution as we go through 2024. Anything you want to add to that, Jon?

是的。嗯，這是對營運方面的一個很好的闡述，但那很好，黛安。但事實是，當我們經歷了過去一年利率的起伏時，我們數位平台的使用確實是一個學習曲線，並挑戰我們變得越來越好。雖然我們對房地產經紀人社區懷有深厚的感情和參與，但我們當然不想承擔不必要的費用。因此，我們一直在認真工作，以確保我們在與房地產經紀人的必要接觸和我們可以透過我們的數位平台實際有機實現的目標之間取得平衡，這正在影響我們的銷售、管理和管理費用。隨著我們努力保持銷售速度，我們看到房地產經紀人的支出和一些行銷支出增加。所以我們看到了其中的一些。到 2024 年，這將是一個進化的故事。喬恩，你還有什麼想補充的嗎？

I think that's the right articulation as you said in your opening remarks here, we're continuing to learn about the execution of our machine. And as we turn the dials, whether it's interest rate buydown or incentives or the flow through our digital funnel or the selective use of brokers. We're in that stage where we are trying, learning, experimenting and providing the feedback to how we get better and more efficient at each of those levers that we pull to drive this consistent production and sales pace.

我認為正如您在開場白中所說的那樣，這是正確的表述，我們正在繼續了解機器的執行情況。當我們轉動旋鈕時，無論是利率回購還是激勵措施，或透過我們的數位管道的流量，或選擇性地使用經紀人。我們正處於這樣一個階段：我們正在嘗試、學習、實驗並提供回饋，以了解我們如何更好、更有效率地利用每一個槓桿來推動一致的生產和銷售步伐。

Great. I guess secondly, just drilling down a little bit more on the gross margins and understanding it's a pretty fluid situation, certainly. But against kind of a backdrop where you've done low 24% gross margins in the back half of '23. Now you're talking about low 21% in the first quarter, but perhaps the full year getting back to something around what you did on a full year basis in '23, it would seem like this upcoming first quarter obviously, you took steps to ensure volume and orders coming in the door that appear to be maybe I don't want to say extraordinary, but you did what you needed to do, let's say, to ensure those volumes coming through and maybe a little bit more of a stress period. Is it fair to kind of think about perhaps a 200 basis point or 200 to 300 basis points this type of first quarter deviation as being kind of -- I don't want to say a onetime event. But as you have the more recent interest rate backdrop coming back to late summer, and where you did a gross margin closer to that 24%.

偉大的。我想其次，只需對毛利率進行更多的研究，並了解這是一個相當不穩定的情況，當然。但在 2023 年下半年毛利率僅為 24% 的背景下。現在你談論的是第一季的低 21%，但也許全年會回到你在 23 年全年基礎上所做的事情，顯然，在即將到來的第一季度，你採取了措施確保數量和訂單進來，這似乎可能是我不想說的非凡，但你做了你需要做的事情，比方說，以確保這些數量通過，也許還有一點壓力時期。考慮一下 200 個基點或 200 到 300 個基點這種類型的第一季偏差是否公平——我不想說這是一次性事件。但隨著最近的利率背景回到夏末，你的毛利率接近 24%。

Is there any reason not to think that you'll be getting back to that 23%, 24% type of gross margin and relatively short order outside of, again, perhaps some more aggressive measures that you took from an incentive that are kind of tangible and quantifiable that you see as more of just affecting the first quarter. Is that kind of the right way to think about kind of moving past this period in the very short-term?

有沒有理由不認為您會回到 23%、24% 的毛利率和相對較短的訂單，也許除了您從有形的激勵措施中採取的一些更積極的措施之外並且可以量化，您認為這更多地只影響第一季。這是考慮在短期內度過這段時期的正確方法嗎？

So it's a great question, Mike, and it's one that we're thinking a lot about. And I think that the answer to that is we'll see, but it is our instinct that, that is very much the case. As I noted in the fourth quarter, you really saw as interest rates started to migrate above 7.5% and towards 8%. As I said in my remarks, it really felt like you were hitting an inflection point where you really felt in the field that the buyers were maybe starting to hit a tipping point of losing some confidence. The way I think about it is as we've gone through this time of higher interest rates, even as we saw a sharp increase in interest rates at the inception, we were able to see incentives work. The incentives were able to help the buyer get to a point of affordability, and they transacted on the need for their housing.

所以這是一個很好的問題，麥克，也是我們正在思考的問題。我認為答案是我們拭目以待，但我們的直覺是，情況確實如此。正如我在第四季度指出的那樣，您確實看到利率開始升至 7.5% 以上並向 8% 邁進。正如我在發言中所說，你真的感覺自己正在達到一個拐點，在這個領域你真的感覺到買家可能開始達到失去信心的臨界點。我的想法是，當我們經歷了利率上升的時期時，即使我們一開始就看到利率急劇上升，我們也能夠看到激勵措施發揮作用。這些激勵措施能夠幫助買家達到負擔能力，並且他們根據住房需求進行交易。

As we got into the fourth quarter, they were starting to get to that point where we weren't sure that incentives even on the aggressive side were going to work. Time went on, interest rates started to moderate just a little bit, not kind of as they did in the past couple of days, but just that moderation took kind of the edge off. And maybe the market needed to get to a new normal. I don't know what that was actually going to be. But the question is -- or the answer to your question is we did what we had to do. We did what it took to activate the market at the moment in time. We're not going to build inventory. We are not going to pull back on the overriding strategy, we're driving cash flow.

當我們進入第四季度時，我們開始不確定即使是激進的激勵措施是否會發揮作用。隨著時間的推移，利率開始略有放緩，不像過去幾天那樣，但這種溫和緩和了一點。也許市場需要進入新常態。我不知道那實際上會是什麼。但問題是——或者你的問題的答案是我們做了我們必須做的事情。我們及時採取了激活市場所需的措施。我們不會建立庫存。我們不會放棄最重要的策略，我們正在推動現金流。

We're going to meet the market where the market is, and we're going to drive through it. And that's exactly what we did through our fourth quarter you're right that some of the margin impact might be a bit more severe as we reflect that through the first quarter and there could well be a kind of snap back and we'll have to wait and see because we are going through the seasonality of this time of the year right now.

我們要在市場所在的地方遇見市場，並且要駛過它。這正是我們在第四季度所做的，你是對的，一些利潤率影響可能會更嚴重一些，因為我們反映在第一季度，很可能會出現某種反彈，我們必須拭目以待，因為我們現在正在經歷一年中這個時候的季節性。

Stuart, if I could add, as you think about the machine and the process that we've been describing to you for quarters now, it's really a reflection of the reality that none of us have a crystal ball at any moment in time to see which way rates or buyer enthusiasm is moving. So as we sat in the fourth quarter, we just dealt with the rate for what they were versus a speculation of where they might go. And so as Stuart just articulated, we appropriately used mortgage rate buydowns to keep a pace going. As we sit here today, rates look better. But again, we don't know where they're going, but we're well positioned to just maintain that pace, which by definition means we would use lower-cost mortgage buydowns, continue to drive the consistent pace. So as Stuart articulated, we'll use our margin as a sharp absorber given market conditions, interest rate environments, and you should see it move up and down as the market moves up and down.

斯圖爾特，如果我可以補充一下，當你想到我們已經向你描述了幾個季度的機器和流程時，這確實反映了一個現實，即我們沒有人可以隨時看到水晶球利率或買家熱情的變化方向。因此，當我們坐在第四季度時，我們只是處理了它們的實際利率與對它們可能走向的猜測。正如史都華剛才所闡述的那樣，我們適當地利用抵押貸款利率下調來保持步伐。當我們今天坐在這裡時，利率看起來更好了。但同樣，我們不知道他們要去哪裡，但我們處於有利地位，可以保持這種速度，這從定義上來說意味著我們將使用較低成本的抵押貸款購買，繼續推動一致的速度。因此，正如史都華所闡述的那樣，考慮到市場條件、利率環境，我們將利用我們的保證金作為敏銳的吸收者，並且您應該看到它隨著市場的上下波動而上下波動。

And one last thing I'll say is an interesting anomaly that we noted through our first -- our fourth quarter was there was a greater reluctance to use an [ARM] product that would normally take place as we go through an interest rate cycle and much more focus on a 30-year fixed buydown, which was more expensive. And -- and just a small tick or normalization of interest rates, and especially what's happened over the past days, really is migrating the attention of buyers through the prospect of an ARM product being more acceptable. This, of course, reduces the amount of incentive that's flowing through the system. And so we're going to have to wait and see. Again, it's [touch and see] on a day-by-day basis, and that's what we're working on.

我要說的最後一件事是我們在第一個季度（第四季）中註意到的一個有趣的異常現象，即人們更不願意使用[ARM] 產品，這通常會在我們經歷利率週期時發生，並且更專注於 30 年期固定購買，這更昂貴。而且，利率的小幅波動或正常化，尤其是過去幾天發生的事情，確實正在將買家的注意力轉移到 ARM 產品更容易被接受的前景上。當然，這會減少流經系統的激勵量。所以我們將不得不拭目以待。再說一次，它是每天的[觸摸和查看]，這就是我們正在努力的方向。

Why don't we take one more question?

我們為什麼不再問一個問題呢？

Our final question comes from Susan Maklari from Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Susan Maklari。

Good afternoon. My first question is just building on your comments in response last question, which is as you think about coming into the year with less than one finished back per community, which is low and especially relative to maybe some of your peers that are in sort of similar product price points market. How do you think about the ability to leverage the improvements in the Lennar machine to flex the business to get to the 80,000 closing that you've guided to or to even perhaps flex up or flex down relative to that number depending on how the market comes together this year.

午安.我的第一個問題只是建立在您對上一個問題的評論的基礎上，這是因為您認為進入這一年每個社區的完成人數還不到一個，這個數字很低，尤其是相對於您的一些同行而言，他們可能處於某種狀態同類產品價位市場。您如何看待利用 Lennar 機器的改進來調整業務以達到您所指導的 80,000 份成交量的能力，或者甚至根據市場的情況相對於該數字進行向上或向下調整的能力今年在一起。

Look, to that extent, everything that we are doing even the migration to the larger number of deliveries is by design. It's about the number of communities that we have and the pace through those communities. And this is becoming very much a focused detailed program that is managed by Jon with what we call our daily call, it actually every other day, and our operating group is laser-focused on production pace, starts pace, cycle times dovetailing with sales pace at the division and community level. This is being handled on a very active hands-on basis. Jon, why don't you...

看起來，從這個意義上說，我們所做的一切，甚至遷移到更多的交付都是經過設計的。這與我們擁有的社區數量以及透過這些社區的速度有關。這正在成為一個非常集中的詳細計劃，由喬恩透過我們所謂的每日通話（實際上是每隔一天）進行管理，我們的營運團隊專注於生產節奏、啟動節奏、週期時間與銷售節奏相吻合在部門和社區層面。目前正在非常積極地親自處理這一問題。喬恩，你為什麼不...

Just as you said, the by design approach is to not have completed inventory, which have new inventory moving through our production machine, which we don't need to flex up or down, it will consistently come through and will consistently drive deliveries towards our goal of about 80,000 for this year. So the market conditions will ebb and flow most likely, but our machine will be very consistent through that delivering by design target that we have.

正如您所說，設計方法是不擁有完整的庫存，其中有新的庫存通過我們的生產機器移動，我們不需要向上或向下彎曲，它將始終如一地完成，並將始終如一地推動向我們的交付今年的目標是8萬左右。因此，市場狀況很可能會起伏不定，但我們的機器將透過我們的設計目標實現非常一致。

Okay. And then in your comments, you detailed some really impressive market share gains that you've realized over the course of the year, as you think about the forward year, can you talk a bit to maybe who those share gains you think largely came from? And then the ability to further outgrow the market as you drive some of these company-specific initiatives?

好的。然後在您的評論中，您詳細介紹了您在這一年中實現的一些令人印象深刻的市場份額增長，當您考慮未來一年時，您能否談談您認為這些份額增長主要來自於誰？然後，當您推動一些公司特定的計劃時，是否有能力進一步超越市場？

So we're certainly not going to be naming names, and it's different across the platform. And I don't think you would even be able to identify a specific work came from. I would say every market is different, every strategy in various markets for the competitive landscape has been different. Remember that there are some numbers that have been constrained by access to capital. There have been others that just have a very different strategy. Our strategy has been clear and consistent and where there has been pulled back by one another or a group of other builders. We've leaned in, we've built certain voids and picked up market share in that process, whether it's been a land acquisition, whether it's been in the acquisition of new trade partners to help focus on cycle time and help bring costs into focus or whether it's been in accelerating sales or sales pace, we've been able across the board to lean in and drive market share.

所以我們當然不會點名，而且不同平台的情況有所不同。我認為你甚至無法確定具體作品的出處。我想說每個市場都是不同的，各個市場針對競爭格局的每個策略都是不同的。請記住，有些數字受到資本獲取的限制。還有其他一些公司則採取了非常不同的策略。我們的策略是明確和一致的，並且有被彼此或一組其他建設者撤回的地方。我們已經做出了努力，在這個過程中建立了一定的空白並獲得了市場份額，無論是土地收購，還是收購新的貿易夥伴，以幫助關注週期時間並幫助關注成本或無論是在加速銷售還是在銷售速度方面，我們都能夠全面傾斜並提高市場佔有率。

I think the market share of the position as a byproduct of the strategy as you're hearing, it's becoming the most efficient, effective buyer of choice from Lennar sellers in the most efficient and effective building choice for our trade partners. That's what really drives our strategy and it produces, other builders pull back or maybe accelerate will provide us consistent growth, consistent volumes of both Lennar sellers and to our trade partners.

我認為，正如您所聽到的，作為該策略副產品的市場份額，它正在成為 Lennar 賣家選擇的最高效、最有效的買家，為我們的貿易夥伴提供最高效、最有效的建築選擇。這才是真正推動我們策略的因素，其他建築商的撤退或加速將為我們帶來持續的成長、Lennar 賣家和我們的交易夥伴的持續銷售。

Okay. Thank you very much. We're going to end it there. I want to say thanks everybody for joining us. It's been a really exciting year for our company in terms of evolution, in terms of execution and in terms of learning curve and look forward to reporting on progress through 2024. Thanks for joining.

好的。非常感謝。我們就到此結束吧。我想說謝謝大家加入我們。對於我們公司的發展、執行和學習曲線來說，今年是非常令人興奮的一年，我們期待報告 2024 年的進展。感謝您的加入。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect your line, and please enjoy the rest of your day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。現在您可以斷開線路，並享受接下來的一天。