Lennar Corp (LEN.B) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I will now turn the call over to David Collins for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。現在我將把電話轉給大衛‧柯林斯，讓他宣讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，早安。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、營運績效、現金流、策略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 對本次電話會議之日的估計，並非旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果有重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I would like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman and Co-CEO. Sir, you may begin.

我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席兼聯合首席執行官斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good. Good morning, everybody and thank you for joining us today. I'm in Miami today, together with Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President, Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, who you just heard from, our Controller and Vice President; Bruce Gross, our CEO of Lennar Financial Services and a few others are here with us as well.

非常好。大家早安，感謝您今天加入我們。我今天在邁阿密，與我們的聯合首席執行官兼總裁喬恩·賈菲 (Jon Jaffe) 以及我們的首席財務官黛安·貝塞特 (Diane Bessette) 一起；大衛‧柯林斯 (David Collins)，您剛收到了我們的財務長兼副總裁的來信； Lennar Financial Services 執行長 Bruce Gross 和其他幾位人士也與我們在一起。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic overview of the company. After my introductory remarks, Jon is going to give an operational overview, updating construction costs, cycle time and some of our land strategy and position. As usual, Diane is going to give a detailed financial highlight along with some limited guidance for the second quarter and full year '24.

像往常一樣，我將對公司進行宏觀和策略概述。在我的介紹性演講之後，喬恩將提供營運概述、更新的建築成本、週期時間以及我們的一些土地策略和立場。像往常一樣，黛安將提供詳細的財務亮點以及第二季度和 24 年全年的一些有限指導。

And then, of course, we'll have our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) So let's go ahead and begin. We're very pleased to report another very solid and consistent quarter of operating results for Lennar. We've continued to execute our operating plan effectively into the first quarter, driving excellent operating results and we have simply never been better positioned from balance sheet to execution, to operating strategy, to address market conditions as they unfold for the remainder of '24 and beyond.

然後，當然，我們將進行問答環節。 （操作員說明）那麼讓我們開始吧。我們非常高興地報告 Lennar 又一個非常穩健且一致的季度營運業績。我們在第一季繼續有效地執行我們的營運計劃，推動了出色的營運業績，而且我們從資產負債表到執行、營運策略，以及應對 24 年剩餘時間的市場狀況，都處於前所未有的狀態。超越。

In the first quarter, we started 18,338 homes, we sold 18,176 homes and we delivered 16,798 homes, while we expect deliveries for the year to be approximately 10% higher than last year at 80,000 homes. Next quarter, we expect to start approximately 21,000 homes, sell approximately 21,000 homes and deliver between 19,000 to 19,500 homes. Admittedly, we aren't quite there yet but we are getting closer and closer to an even flow manufacturing model that we believe will continue to enhance our cash flow, our bottom line as well as our predictability.

第一季度，我們開工了 18,338 套房屋，售出了 18,176 套房屋，交付了 16,798 套房屋，而我們預計今年的交付量將比去年增加約 10%，達到 80,000 套。下個季度，我們預計將開工約 21,000 套房屋，銷售約 21,000 套房屋，並交付 19,000 至 19,500 套房屋。誠然，我們還沒有完全實現這一目標，但我們越來越接近均勻流程製造模式，我們相信這種模式將繼續增強我們的現金流量、利潤以及可預測性。

Last year, we grew at a 10% pace in a very difficult year and we believe we'll grow at a 10% pace again this year in a complicated economic -- in complicated economic conditions. And it is being done by a carefully designed program to maintain volume, maximize efficiencies and cost reductions around production, maintaining even flow of production and sales and rebuild our asset base and balance sheet in order to drive cash flow, effective capital allocation and higher returns. That is total shareholder returns, returns on assets and returns on equity. I know I didn't mention margin yet. That's because, as I've said before, margin is the springing mechanism that enables all of this to happen. This quarter, our margin was 21.8%, somewhat higher than expected.

去年，我們在非常困難的一年中以 10% 的速度成長，我們相信今年在複雜的經濟狀況下，我們將再次以 10% 的速度成長。這是透過精心設計的計劃來實現的，以維持產量，最大限度地提高生產效率和降低成本，保持生產和銷售的均勻流動，並重建我們的資產基礎和資產負債表，以推動現金流、有效的資本配置和更高的回報。即股東總回報、資產回報和股本回報。我知道我還沒提到保證金。這是因為，正如我之前所說，保證金是讓這一切發生的彈性機制。本季度，我們的利潤率為 21.8%，略高於預期。

And next quarter, we expect our margin to be approximately 22.5%, depending on market conditions. And for the full year, we expect margin to be approximately the same as last year's full year margin of 23.3% but that, of course, will depend on market conditions as well, we will see. Additionally, we've continued to drive strong cash flow and allocate over $500 million to repurchase 3.4 million shares of stock and improve our balance sheet with a homebuilding debt-to-total capital ratio of under 10%.

下個季度，我們預計利潤率約為 22.5%，具體取決於市場狀況。對於全年而言，我們預計利潤率將與去年全年利潤率 23.3% 大致相同，但這當然也取決於市場狀況，我們拭目以待。此外，我們繼續推動強勁的現金流，並撥款超過 5 億美元用於回購 340 萬股股票，並改善我們的資產負債表，使房屋建築債務與總資本比率低於 10%。

While we know we have accumulated a sizable $5 billion of cash on our book, we are crafting our strategy for appropriate capital allocation. Overall, the macroeconomic environment remains relatively strong for the new homebuilders. The general theme remains primarily focused around very strong demand for housing, limited by the chronic housing shortage that is particularly problematic for working class families and their ability to find affordable or attainable supply.

雖然我們知道帳面上已經累積了 50 億美元的巨額現金，但我們正在製定適當的資本配置策略。整體而言，對於新房屋建築商來說，宏觀經濟環境仍然相對強勁。整體主題仍然主要集中在非常強勁的住房需求上，但受到長期住房短缺的限制，這對工薪階層家庭及其尋找負擔得起或可獲得的供應的能力來說尤其成問題。

Demand for that product remains robust, if it can be built at an attainable price point. The economic environment driving demand has been relatively favorable, supported by low unemployment and fairly strong consumer confidence. Generally speaking, consumers remain employed. They are confident that they will remain employed and they believe that their compensation is likely to rise. This is most often the foundation of a very strong housing market. Along with the supply shortage, the additional limiting factor continues to center around affordability, driven by the impact of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation. With higher interest rates, affordability continues to be tested as higher monthly payments make qualifying for a loan increasingly difficult.

如果該產品能夠以可達到的價格點生產，對該產品的需求仍然強勁。在低失業率和相當強勁的消費者信心的支持下，推動需求的經濟環境相對有利。一般來說，消費者仍然有工作。他們有信心繼續就業，並且相信自己的薪水可能會增加。這通常是非常強勁的房地產市場的基礎。除了供應短缺之外，在利率上升和通貨膨脹頑固的影響下，額外的限制繼續集中在承受能力上。隨著利率上升，負擔能力繼續受到考驗，因為每月還款額增加使得獲得貸款的資格變得越來越困難。

At the same time, inflationary pressures have driven traditional cost of living expenses higher over the past 2 years, which has made savings for a down payment increasingly difficult. Higher prices have also started to lead to increased personal and credit card debt as families stretch to pay their bills. We've started to see early evidence of debt delinquencies showing up and derailing some mortgage applications.

同時，過去兩年通膨壓力推高了傳統生活成本，導致儲蓄首付變得越來越困難。由於家庭難以支付帳單，物價上漲也開始導致個人和信用卡債務增加。我們已經開始看到債務拖欠的早期證據出現，並導致一些抵押貸款申請脫軌。

While interest rates have continued to move higher and lower, as the Fed continues to see economic data indicating that inflation has been controlled, the consumer has been navigating an affordability gauntlet. The new homebuilders have worked out a variety of incentive structures that range from interest rate buy downs to closing cost pickups to price reductions, all designed to meet the purchaser at the intersection of need and affordability.

儘管利率持續走高或走低，但隨著聯準會繼續看到經濟數據顯示通膨已得到控制，消費者一直面臨著承受能力的挑戰。新的住宅建築商已經制定了各種激勵結構，從利率下調到成交成本上升再到降價，所有這些都是為了滿足購買者的需求和承受能力。

Those incentives have increased and decreased as interest rates have moved up and down, homebuilders have been uniquely able to capture demand by using these incentives to unlock the affordability constraints and enable purchasers to transact. Against this backdrop, our first quarter -- in our first quarter, we've been focused on and consistent in executing our core operating strategy.

隨著利率的上下波動，這些激勵措施增加和減少，房屋建築商能夠透過利用這些激勵措施來釋放負擔能力限制並使購買者能夠進行交易來捕獲需求。在此背景下，我們的第一季—在我們的第一季度，我們一直專注並始終如一地執行我們的核心營運策略。

We continue to migrate to a pure-play manufacturing model across our homebuilding platform and each of our 40 homebuilding divisions, in order to reduce production costs while we generate consistent cash flow. Additionally, we are reengineering our products for efficiency and volume in order to enhance our inventory turn and grow volume to contribute to build a balanced and therefore, healthier overall housing market.

我們繼續在我們的住宅建築平台和 40 個住宅建築部門中轉向純製造模式，以降低生產成本，同時產生穩定的現金流。此外，我們正在重新設計我們的產品以提高效率和數量，以提高我們的庫存週轉率並增加數量，有助於建立一個平衡且更健康的整體房屋市場。

We have also continued to migrate to a land-light balance sheet while we grow our business and expand market share in order to drive total shareholder return, return on inventory and return on equity. We are, so to speak, continuing to modernize and upgrade the Lennar airplane while we are flying the plane and putting execution and safety first, as we fly. It has been a busy and productive quarter for Lennar and we've continued to execute in the short term while we continue to build our platform for continued and future success.

在發展業務和擴大市場份額的同時，我們也繼續轉向輕土地資產負債表，以提高股東總回報、庫存回報和股本回報。可以說，我們在飛行時繼續對 Lennar 飛機進行現代化和升級，並在飛行時將執行力和安全性放在第一位。對於 Lennar 來說，這是一個忙碌而富有成效的季度，我們將繼續執行短期計劃，同時繼續建立我們的平台，以實現持續和未來的成功。

So let me break some of this down. On the operational side, we are running under a by design operational model, where we are starting homes at a pace designed to increase market share while we maximize logistics and efficiencies in order to benefit from reduced construction costs. Our trade partners are giving visibility on starts and timing expectations so that they can be more efficient and help pass efficiency savings on to our customers through more affordable product. By driving volume, we gained market share in most of our core markets, as we lean in when others pull back.

讓我來分解一下。在營運方面，我們正在按照設計營運模式運行，我們以增加市場份額的速度開建房屋，同時最大限度地提高物流和效率，以便從降低的建築成本中受益。我們的貿易合作夥伴正在提供有關啟動和時間預期的可見性，以便他們能夠提高效率，並透過更實惠的產品幫助我們的客戶將效率節省轉嫁給我們的客戶。透過提高銷售量，我們在大多數核心市場獲得了市場份額，因為當其他人撤退時，我們會向前推進。

Our trade partners see a consistent and dependable partner that is worthy of the designation of builder of choice. We work side by side with our trade partners, while we attract additional trade partner relationships. Participants find that they have dependable and consistent work with our production strategy which leads to higher productivity and, therefore, cost savings.

我們的貿易夥伴看到了一個一致、可靠的合作夥伴，值得被指定為首選建造商。我們與貿易夥伴並肩工作，同時吸引更多的貿易夥伴關係。參與者發現他們與我們的生產策略進行了可靠且一致的工作，從而提高了生產力，從而節省了成本。

Through market share growth in local markets, we enhanced the ability to better manage our costs, enhance our efficiency of operations, reduce cycle times with efficient production templates and enhance our inventory turn. Jon will discuss this in more detail in just a few minutes. Driving our confidence to start homes at pace in order to achieve maximum efficiency in the field is the Lennar machine. The machine is a combined program of digital marketing, sales consultant engagement and dynamic pricing. We've described the machine in prior calls and many of you have now come to our office to see it in action. The machine has completely changed the manner in which we sell homes and enables us to drive maximum efficient production.

透過本地市場的市場份額成長，我們增強了更好地管理成本的能力，提高了營運效率，透過高效的生產模板縮短了週期時間，並提高了庫存週轉率。喬恩將在幾分鐘內更詳細地討論這個問題。 Lennar 機器讓我們充滿信心地快速開工建設，以在現場實現最高效率。該機器是數位行銷、銷售顧問參與和動態定價的組合程序。我們在之前的電話中已經描述過這台機器，現在你們中的許多人已經來到我們的辦公室來觀看它的運作情況。這台機器徹底改變了我們銷售房屋的方式，使我們能夠推動最高效的生產。

If we build a home, we sell that home. We sell by digitally acquiring leads through our digital marketing programs, then we filter those leads, so the best leads go directly to our sales professionals. They nurture those best leads or customers, while our dynamic pricing model assists in dynamically tailoring pricing in real time to meet the market, given consumer desires, market conditions and competitive factors.

如果我們建造房屋，我們就會出售該房屋。我們透過數位行銷計畫以數位方式獲取銷售線索，然後過濾這些銷售線索，以便最好的銷售線索直接流向我們的銷售專業人員。他們培養那些最好的潛在客戶或客戶，而我們的動態定價模型則有助於根據消費者需求、市場條件和競爭因素即時動態調整定價以滿足市場需求。

The dynamically adjusted pricing using incentives or price alterations automatically adjust our margin up or down while we maintain production and sales pace. We set the production to efficiency. We match sales pace to production and we deliver the homes we build while we carefully maintain controlled inventory levels, all while reducing production costs and driving consistent cash flow.

使用激勵措施或價格變動動態調整定價會自動調整我們的利潤，同時維持生產和銷售速度。我們將生產設定為高效率。我們將銷售節奏與生產相匹配，交付我們建造的房屋，同時小心地保持受控的庫存水平，同時降低生產成本並推動穩定的現金流。

I know it all sounds easy but it's not. But this has been a core pillar of the programming that we've been reworking over the past years and it's really starting to kick in and work quite well. Next to our laser focus on volume, with production and sales being in even better alignment, we are intensifying our focus on producing affordable and attainable product across our platform.

我知道這一切聽起來很容易，但事實並非如此。但這一直是我們在過去幾年中一直在重新設計的程式設計的核心支柱，並且它確實開始發揮作用並且運作良好。除了我們高度關注數量、生產和銷售更加協調一致之外，我們還更加重視在我們的平台上生產價格實惠且可實現的產品。

We've recognized that the chronic housing shortage is a critical issue and it's more than just a great talking point. The reality is that our industry needs to find solutions to building a healthier housing market that is attainable to participants across the economic landscape. Working-class housing is essential to the effective working of our cities across the country and we hear that from mayors and governors everywhere.

我們認識到，長期住房短缺是一個關鍵問題，它不僅僅是一個很好的話題。現實情況是，我們的產業需要找到解決方案來建立一個經濟領域的參與者都可以實現的更健康的房屋市場。工薪階層的住房對於全國城市的有效運作至關重要，我們從各地的市長和州長那裡聽到了這一點。

So we've been working on using our strategies for production and cost efficiencies to help build a healthier housing market that is accessible to everyone. Of course, it all starts with lower production costs across our platform. Land, we know is getting more expensive. Impact fees also are getting more expensive and labor costs have been rising as well.

因此，我們一直致力於利用我們的生產和成本效率策略來幫助建立一個人人都可以參與的更健康的房屋市場。當然，這一切都始於我們平台上較低的生產成本。我們知道，土地變得越來越貴。影響費也變得越來越貴，勞動成本也在上漲。

We can only reduce our input costs by increasing productivity through efficiencies of our operations. Our focus has been on doing just that. We're building more consistent products that we call our core products that are carefully value engineered and we are using our start pace to enable an engineered production cycle as well enabling us to reduce cycle time and to work with our trade partners to build efficiencies in logistics and the way that we run our community production.

我們只能透過提高營運效率來提高生產力，從而降低投入成本。我們的重點就是這樣做。我們正在打造更一致的產品，我們稱之為核心產品，這些產品經過精心的價值設計，我們正在利用我們的啟動速度來實現工程化的生產週期，同時使我們能夠縮短週期時間並與我們的貿易夥伴合作，提高生產效率。物流以及我們進行社區生產的方式。

We've also continued working on additional product approaches to help build a healthier housing market. We've intensified our focus on build for rent that is community scale and single-family for rent scattered home sale markets. We believe that we can and need to build additional production for professionally owned housing that can fill an important need.

我們也繼續致力於其他產品方法，以幫助建立更健康的房屋市場。我們加強了對社區規模的出租建築和分散的房屋銷售市場出租的單戶住宅的關注。我們相信，我們能夠而且需要為專業人士建造更多的住房，以滿足重要的需求。

Those professional purchasers need cost efficiencies in today's interest rate environment in order to make their rents attainable and we can provide that. There are families who are building their future and aspire to single-family lifestyle with backyards and schools and parks but who can't yet afford a down payment or don't have the credit characteristics to qualify the mortgage that they need.

這些專業買家需要在當今的利率環境下提高成本效率，才能獲得可負擔的租金，而我們可以提供這一點。有些家庭正在建立自己的未來，渴望擁有後院、學校和公園的單戶生活方式，但他們還無力支付首付款，或不具備獲得所需抵押貸款的信用特徵。

Institutional buyers are filling that void for those families. Many across the industry have criticized the professionally owned market and the investor class that competes with primary homeowners to purchase product for rentals. This is flawed thinking. Those investors are actually filling a critical need for the underserved families who seek to bridge the lifestyle for their family while they build the down payment and credit score to ultimately achieve homeownership.

機構買家正​​在為這些家庭填補這一空白。業內許多人批評專業市場和與主要房主競爭購買租賃產品的投資者階層。這是有缺陷的想法。這些投資者實際上是在滿足那些服務不足的家庭的迫切需求，他們尋求為家人改善生活方式，同時支付首付和信用評分，以最終實現住房所有權。

This is the critical equitable side of home production and the institutional buyers are not competitors to the primary buyers. They are additive to the valuable housing stock, enabling those who don't have a family that can help them achieve the lifestyle they want, while they build their capital capacity. We are working across our platform with our institutional partners to produce more structured programs to provide more housing for those who need professional ownership as a stepping stone for the ultimate home of their own. We are also engaging our blue-chip multifamily platform to build attainable rental products in an off-balance sheet configuration.

這是家庭生產的關鍵公平方面，機構買家不是主要買家的競爭對手。它們是寶貴住房存量的補充，使那些沒有家庭的人能夠幫助他們實現自己想要的生活方式，同時增強他們的資本能力。我們正在透過我們的平台與我們的機構合作夥伴合作，制定更有條理的計劃，為那些需要專業所有權的人提供更多住房，作為他們自己的最終家園的墊腳石。我們也利用我們的藍籌多戶平台在資產負債表外配置中建立可實現的租賃產品。

We have a strong history of successfully building multifamily product across the country. We have been building those products in an off-balance sheet configuration and we expect to continue to build this vital attainable product without encumbering our balance sheet. Finally, we have built and continued to refine our land strategy by design as well, in order to dovetail with our production orientation. Every home that is going to be built needs a home site with a permit and those homesites need to be auctioned and off balance sheet until we're ready to build.

我們在全國範圍內成功建造多戶型產品方面擁有悠久的歷史。我們一直在資產負債表外配置中建立這些產品，我們希望繼續建立這個重要的可實現產品，而不影響我們的資產負債表。最後，我們也透過設計制定並繼續完善我們的土地策略，以符合我們的生產方向。每棟要建造的房屋都需要一個擁有許可證的住宅用地，並且在我們準備好建造之前，這些住宅用地需要拍賣併計入資產負債表。

We continue to focus on a just-in-time delivery program for land just like we have for lumber and appliances and other products and we continue to make excellent progress in this regard. We accomplished this by both negotiating auction deals with landowners and developers. And we also -- and also creating structured land bank strategies, often with private equity capital.

我們繼續專注於土地的準時交付計劃，就像我們對木材、電器和其他產品的計劃一樣，我們在這方面繼續取得出色的進展。我們透過與土地所有者和開發商談判拍賣協議來實現這一目標。我們也制定了結構化的土地儲備策略，通常是利用私募股權資本。

By consistently focusing on our land-light strategy, we've materially enhanced and generated consistent cash flow through the ups and downs of interest rate changes and we've enhanced our balance sheet and our liquidity even after redeeming debt and purchasing stock over the past years, along with purchasing $500 million of shares of stock through this quarter.

透過持續關注我們的輕土地策略，我們在利率變化的起伏中實質地增強並產生了持續的現金流，即使在過去贖回債務和購買股票之後，我們也增強了我們的資產負債表和流動性年，並在本季購買了價值 5 億美元的股票。

Our balance sheet is situated today with a 9.6% homebuilding debt-to-total cap ratio with $5 billion of cash on hand and $0 drawn on our revolver and with an expected $3.5 billion plus or minus of net cash flow over this next year. Accordingly, we have the flexibility to allocate capital strategically, first of course to grow, while also retiring debt, paying appropriate dividends and repurchasing shares of Lennar stock.

目前，我們的資產負債表的房屋建築債務與總上限比率為 9.6%，手頭現金為 50 億美元，左輪手槍提領金額為 0 美元，預計明年的淨現金流增減為 35 億美元。因此，我們可以靈活地策略性地分配資本，首先當然是為了成長，同時還清償債務、支付適當的股息併回購 Lennar 股票。

Accordingly, this quarter, we raised our dividend to $2 per share and authorized an additional $5 billion of stock repurchases as we continue to drive total shareholder returns. Even with these capital allocations, many have suggested that given the tremendous success of our migration to our land light program, we have accumulated too much cash on our balance sheet, which limits the ability of our returns to move higher. While we have understood the concern, we have remained patient as we have evolved not just the migration to the land light configuration but also have remained focused on the long-term durability of the land bank structures involved. Private equity capital can be fickle. By driving volume through these programs, we have gained advantaged insights into and refined the workings of our strategic land banks.

因此，本季我們將股利提高至每股 2 美元，並授權額外回購 50 億美元的股票，以繼續推動股東總回報。即使有了這些資本配置，許多人仍然認為，鑑於我們轉向土地照明計劃的巨大成功，我們的資產負債表上積累了太多現金，這限制了我們提高回報的能力。雖然我們理解這種擔憂，但我們仍然保持耐心，因為我們不僅發展了向土地光配置的遷移，而且仍然關注所涉及土地儲備結構的長期耐久性。私募股權資本可能變化無常。透過這些計劃增加銷量，我們獲得了對戰略土地儲備運作的有利見解並完善了其運作。

The underlying funding systems for the land banks has been refined and questions have now been answered as to the durability of the capital partners that make up the counterparty relationships with their homebuilding partner, namely us. Our consistent volume helped to find both trust and dependability and has taken those relationships to another level as neither party flinched as market conditions tested the boundaries of relationships.

土地銀行的基礎融資系統已經得到完善，並且關於資本合作夥伴的持久性的問題現已得到解答，這些資本合作夥伴構成了與其房屋建築合作夥伴（即我們）的交易對手關係。我們一致的交易量有助於找到信任和可靠性，並將這些關係提升到另一個水平，因為市場條件考驗了關係的界限，雙方都沒有退縮。

While adjustments were made and lessons were learned, the structures and relationships became stronger and more durable. Accordingly, we have now rekindled our focus on a strategic spin-off that can be cleanly focused on fortifying durable land strategy. By spinning our own land, excess land in a taxable spin, we believe that we can create an additional -- though with permanent capital, vehicle that can auction, develop homesites for Lennar and recycle capital into new homesites, while distributing market appropriate returns to shareholders.

在進行調整並學習的同時，結構和關係變得更加牢固和持久。因此，我們現在重新關注戰略分拆，可以明確地專注於加強持久土地戰略。透過將我們自己的土地、多餘的土地進行應稅旋轉，我們相信我們可以創造額外的——儘管有永久資本——可以拍賣、為Lennar 開發宅基地的工具，並將資本回收到新的宅基地，同時將市場適當的回報分配給股東。

We have stood up a strong land vehicle that is under consideration, currently, with about $4 billion of land, it could be more, it could be less and it is under development and consideration right now. Such a transaction would distribute capital to shareholders, it would reduce inventory on Lennar's books and it would provide permanent dependable capital for future land auctions.

我們已經建立了一個正在考慮的強大的陸地工具，目前大約有40億美元的土地，可能更多，也可能更少，目前正在開發和考慮中。此類交易將向股東分配資本，減少 Lennar 帳簿上的庫存，並為未來的土地拍賣提供永久可靠的資本。

Our balance sheet would remain very strong with consistent earnings and cash flow to contribute to pay down debt and continue to repurchase stock. We know we've had a fall start on a prior spin concept and there's no promise of certainty or completion on this program. But on the positive side, our Chief Operating Officer, Fred Rothman is singularly focused on this initiative and Fred likes to get things done. We'll keep you apprised of the progress but progress should happen relatively quickly as this transaction is far simpler in structure.

我們的資產負債表將保持非常強勁，具有持續的利潤和現金流，有助於償還債務並繼續回購股票。我們知道我們先前的旋轉概念已經開始失敗，並且無法保證該計劃的確定性或完成度。但從積極的一面來看，我們的營運長 Fred Rothman 非常關注這項舉措，而且 Fred 喜歡把事情做好。我們將隨時向您通報進度，但進展應該相對較快，因為交易的結構要簡單得多。

With that said, let me conclude by saying that our first quarter of 2024 has been another strategic and operational success for our company. While market conditions have remained challenging, we have consistently learned and found ways to address market needs. We know that demand is strong and there is a chronic housing supply shortage that needs to be filled. We will continue to drive production to meeting the housing shortage that we know persists across market.

話雖如此，我最後想說的是，2024 年第一季是我們公司在策略和營運方面的又一成功。儘管市場狀況仍然充滿挑戰，但我們不斷學習並找到滿足市場需求的方法。我們知道需求強勁，長期存在住房供應短缺的問題需要填補。我們將繼續推動生產，以滿足我們知道整個市場持續存在的住房短缺問題。

With that said, as interest rates subside and normalize and if the Fed is going to begin to actually cut rates, we believe that pent-up demand will be activated and we will be well positioned and well prepared. If not, we will continue to produce volume and increase market share. To date, we have seen overall market conditions remain generally constructive for the industry. Even though higher interest rates have remained sticky, strong pent-up demand has found ways to access the housing market. Given consistent execution, we are extremely well positioned for even greater successes as strong demand for affordable offering continues to see short supply.

話雖如此，隨著利率下降並正常化，如果聯準會開始實際降息，我們相信被壓抑的需求將被激活，我們將做好充分準備。如果沒有，我們將繼續生產並增加市場份額。迄今為止，我們看到整體市場狀況對該行業總體來說仍然是有利的。儘管利率上升仍然具有黏性，但被壓抑的強勁需求已找到進入房地產市場的方法。由於對價格實惠的產品的強勁需求持續出現供應短缺，只要執行一致，我們就能夠取得更大的成功。

Perhaps most importantly, our extraordinarily strong balance sheet affords us flexibility and opportunity to consider and execute upon thoughtful innovation for our future. We have the luxury to continue to execute flawlessly in the short term, while we continue to return capital to our shareholders through dividend and stock buyback, while we also -- and I emphasize the word also, pursue strategic distribution to shareholders that fortifies our future as well.

也許最重要的是，我們異常強勁的資產負債表為我們提供了靈活性和機會，可以為我們的未來考慮和執行深思熟慮的創新。我們有能力在短期內繼續完美執行，同時我們繼續透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本，同時我們也——我也強調這個詞——追求對股東的策略分配，以鞏固我們的未來以及。

We have clearly earned an enviable position. As we look ahead to a successful 2024, we are well positioned for and expect to see much more of the same. We are confident that by design, we will continue to grow, to perform and to drive Lennar to new levels of consistent and predictable performance. We are guiding to 19,000 to 19,500 closings next quarter with approximately a 22.5% margin. And we expect to deliver approximately 80,000 homes this year with a little over a 23% margin. We also expect to repurchase in excess of $2 billion of stock as we continue to drive very strong cash flow.

我們顯然已經贏得了令人羨慕的地位。當我們展望 2024 年的成功時，我們已經做好了充分準備，並期望看到更多相同的事情。我們相信，透過設計，我們將繼續成長、表現並推動 Lennar 達到一致和可預測性能的新水平。我們預計下季成交量為 19,000 至 19,500 份，利潤率約為 22.5%。我們預計今年將交付約 8 萬套房屋，利潤率略高於 23%。隨著我們繼續推動非常強勁的現金流，我們也預計將回購超過 20 億美元的股票。

We look forward to a very strong year. And for that, I want to thank the extraordinary associates of Lennar for their tremendous focus effort and talent. And with that, let me turn it over to Jon.

我們期待著非常強勁的一年。為此，我要感謝 Lennar 傑出的同事們付出的巨大努力和才華。接下來，讓我把它交給喬恩。

Good morning. As you heard from Stuart, our operational teams at Lennar continued the execution of our core operating strategies in our first quarter. The focus starts within our marketing and sales machine. Every quarter, our divisions continuously learn from their engagement within our machine, gain knowledge in how to use this information for decision-making, provide feedback for enhancements and improve the machine and execution of our strategies.

早安.正如您從史都華那裡聽到的那樣，Lennar 的營運團隊在第一季繼續執行我們的核心營運策略。重點始於我們的行銷和銷售機器。每個季度，我們的部門都會不斷從他們對機器的參與中學習，獲得如何使用這些資訊進行決策的知識，提供增強回饋，並改善機器和我們策略的執行。

This continuous loop of learnings and improvements drive and provide analytics, which enable us to improve our matching of sales to our production pace. You can see this evolution -- you can see the evolution of this improvement in our operating results as sales were evenly matched with starts in the first quarter and are projected to be evenly matched again in the second quarter.

這種學習和改進的持續循環推動並提供分析，使我們能夠改善銷售與生產節奏的匹配。你可以看到這種演變——你可以看到我們經營業績改善的演變，因為第一季的銷售額與開工率旗鼓相當，預計第二季將再次旗鼓相當。

While there is more progress to be made, this matching of sales and production is leveling out our closings from quarter-to-quarter. The goal is even flow deliveries where by design starts gradually increase quarter-over-quarter to ultimately provide a consistent number of deliveries throughout the year. This operating model produces the most significant of all the efficiencies that benefit our trade partners.

儘管還有更多進展，但銷售和生產的匹配正在使我們的季度結帳情況趨於平穩。目標是均勻的流量交付，按照設計開始逐季度逐漸增加，最終提供全年一致的交付數量。這種營運模式帶來了最顯著的效率，使我們的貿易夥伴受益。

To optimize the pricing of each home, this strategy is more than just about selling -- about the pace of sales but about selling the right homes at the right price. In every division, Mondays are now referred to as machine Mondays. Our operating teams gather to review dashboards, informing them with the prior week's results compared to the planned activity. This analysis of the prior week's activity from digital marketing leads to sales pace and price of homes sold is evaluated to see if we sold the right homes, thus informing our decision making and required course of action for the current week.

為了優化每套房屋的定價，該策略不僅僅是銷售——銷售速度，而是以合適的價格出售合適的房屋。在每個部門，星期一現在被稱為機器星期一。我們的營運團隊聚集在一起審查儀表板，告知他們前一週的結果與計畫活動的比較。對數位行銷前一周活動的分析可以評估銷售速度和所售房屋的價格，以了解我們是否出售了合適的房屋，從而為我們的決策和本週所需的行動方案提供資訊。

As the week unfolds, this is reevaluated to make adjustments. All this analysis enables each division to make ongoing adjustments matching sales to unsold production as homes progress towards completion. In our first quarter, as interest rates fluctuated, this process informed us as to where we have pricing power or where we need buy down of interest rates and/or other incentives to maintain the desired pace.

隨著本週的展開，我們將重新評估這一點以做出調整。所有這些分析使每個部門能夠隨著房屋的完工而不斷進行調整，將銷售與未售出的產量相匹配。在我們的第一季度，隨著利率波動，這個過程告訴我們我們在哪裡擁有定價權，或者我們需要在哪裡降低利率和/或其他激勵措施以保持所需的速度。

The confidence we have in this by design sales strategy allows us to maintain consistent starts. These starts lead to increased market share. This has seen a growth of 28% in sales and 23% in deliveries year-over-year as our consistent starts have filled the void of other buyers who pulled back. This consistency of starts and related share gain have positioned Lennar with the #1 or 2 market share in 33 of our 40 operating divisions, with 23 of these 33 divisions having the #1 market share.

我們對這項設計銷售策略的信心使我們能夠保持一致的開端。這些舉措導致市佔率增加。由於我們持續的開工填補了其他買家撤退的空白，銷售額年增 28%，交付量年增 23%。這種開工率和相關份額成長的一致性使 Lennar 在我們 40 個營運部門中的 33 個中佔據第一或第二的市場份額，其中 33 個部門中有 23 個市場份額排名第一。

Here are some examples of our markets where we have both the leading market share position and also have increased that share. In the Carolinas, market share in (inaudible) improved to 20%, up from 16%. In Charleston at 24%, up from 22%. In the Midwest, our market share in Indianapolis is up 7% to 34%; Minnesota is up 4% to 29%, Chicago is up 5% to 24%. Our market share of San Antonio grew by 6% to almost 24%. In San Diego, we grew from 35% to 40% and Central Valley from 31% to 38% and in Tucson from 14% to 18%. In Florida, our market share increased in Tampa from 15% to 21% and in Jacksonville from 17% to 24%. Here in Miami, while we did not grow our industry-leading market share, we did maintain a very healthy 75% share. Our sales pace of 4.9 homes per community in Q1 is up from the pace of 3.9 in Q1 of last year. This increase was by design to match the starts pace of 4.9 from the fourth quarter of 2023.

以下是我們市場的一些範例，在這些市場中，我們不僅擁有領先的市場份額，而且還增加了該份額。在卡羅來納州，（聽不清楚）的市佔率從 16% 提高到 20%。查爾斯頓的這一比例從 22% 上升到 24%。在中西部，我們在印第安納波利斯的市佔率成長了 7% 至 34%；明尼蘇達州上漲 4% 至 29%，芝加哥上漲 5% 至 24%。我們在聖安東尼奧的市佔率成長了 6%，達到近 24%。在聖地牙哥，我們從 35% 成長到 40%，中央山谷從 31% 成長到 38%，圖森從 14% 成長到 18%。在佛羅裡達州，我們在坦帕的市佔率從 15% 增加到 21%，在傑克遜維爾從 17% 增加到 24%。在邁阿密，雖然我們沒有增加行業領先的市場份額，但我們確實保持了非常健康的 75% 份額。我們第一季每個社區 4.9 套房屋的銷售速度高於去年第一季的 3.9 套。這一增長是為了匹配 2023 年第四季 4.9 的啟動速度而設計的。

In our first quarter, the 30-year fixed rate was 7.37% at the start of the quarter, then down to 6.75% in the middle of January and back up above 7% in the middle of February. Using insights from dynamic pricing, our homebuilding teams work closely with our Lennar mortgage teams to find the right mortgage solutions, home buyer by homebuyer. On the cycle time and construction costs, as we continuously improve the way we execute this game plan, we are also continuously working to deepen the partnerships with our trade partners. We focus on maintaining both a high volume and a consistent volume of homes under construction. These and the other efficiencies discussed benefit our trade partners, enabling us to lower construction costs in cooperative manner with our trades. By consistently starting homes even as interest rates rose above 7% during the quarter, we increased our starts by 38% from the prior year and they were flat sequentially from Q4.

在我們的第一季度，30 年期固定利率在季度初為 7.37%，然後在 1 月中旬下降至 6.75%，並在 2 月中旬回升至 7% 以上。利用動態定價的見解，我們的住宅建築團隊與 Lennar 抵押貸款團隊密切合作，為每個購房者找到合適的抵押貸款解決方案。在周期時間和建設成本方面，隨著我們不斷改進執行該遊戲計劃的方式，我們也在不斷努力加深與貿易夥伴的合作關係。我們專注於保持在建房屋的高數量和穩定數量。這些和討論的其他效率使我們的貿易夥伴受益，使我們能夠與我們的行業合作降低建築成本。儘管本季利率上升至 7% 以上，但透過持續開工建設，我們的開工率比前一年增加了 38%，與第四季相比持平。

This consistent and increased level of starts attracts a larger trade base to Lennar and together with a normalized supply chain led to another meaningful improvement in our cycle timing. For the first quarter, cycle time decreased by 7 days sequentially from Q4, down to 154 days on average for single-family homes, a 30% decrease year-over-year. With cycle time stabilizing, combined with ongoing efficiency gains, we are now designing -- building a template that will further reduce cycle time on future starts. We focus on building large volume, consistency, predictability, cycle time and even flow to achieve production efficiencies, enabling our trade partner to lower their supply chain and labor costs.

這種持續且不斷增加的開工水準為 Lennar 吸引了更大的貿易基礎，再加上標準化的供應鏈，我們的週期時間又得到了有意義的改善。第一季度，單戶住宅的平均週期時間較第四季減少了 7 天，降至 154 天，年減 30%。隨著週期時間的穩定，再加上持續的效率提升，我們現在正在設計——建立一個模板，以進一步縮短未來啟動的週期時間。我們專注於建立大量、一致性、可預測性、週期時間甚至流程，以實現生產效率，使我們的貿易夥伴能夠降低其供應鏈和勞動力成本。

Looking at the first quarter, as expected, our construction costs fell sequentially from Q4 by about 2% and on a year-over-year basis by about 11%. Moving forward, to drive further efficiencies and cost reductions, we are laser focused on the consistent use of highly valued engineered home plans, which, as Stuart mentioned, we call the core product strategy. This strategy has recently begun implementation in Texas and is scheduled to be rolled out in Florida this year and will follow thereafter in the rest of our markets. These engineered efficiencies, together with significantly higher use frequency of these core plans will further cement our position as the builder of choice with our trade partners. The reduced cost and time to build these core plans will help us achieve the goal of delivering attainable housing to meet the needs of the home buying consumer.

從第一季來看，正如預期的那樣，我們的建築成本比第四季環比下降了約 2%，比去年同期下降了約 11%。展望未來，為了進一步提高效率和降低成本，我們將重點放在高價值的工程家居計劃的一致使用上，正如斯圖爾特所提到的，我們稱之為核心產品策略。該策略最近已在德克薩斯州開始實施，並計劃今年在佛羅裡達州推出，隨後將在我們的其他市場推出。這些工程效率，加上這些核心計畫的使用頻率顯著提高，將進一步鞏固我們作為貿易夥伴首選建築商的地位。制定這些核心計畫的成本和時間的減少將幫助我們實現提供可實現住房的目標，以滿足購屋消費者的需求。

Next, I'll discuss our land-light strategy. In the first quarter, we continued to effectively work with our strategic land and land bank partners, where they purchase land on our behalf and then delivered just-in-time homesites to our homebuilding machine, as Stuart described. In the first quarter, about 80% of our $1.6 billion of land acquisitions in the quarter were finished homesites purchased from these various land structures.

接下來，我將討論我們的陸光策略。在第一季度，我們繼續與我們的戰略土地和土地銀行合作夥伴進行有效合作，他們代表我們購買土地，然後將適時的住宅用地交付給我們的住宅建築機器，正如斯圖爾特所描述的那樣。第一季度，我們本季 16 億美元的土地收購中約有 80% 是從這些不同的土地結構中購買的成品住宅。

This 80% reflects a prior (inaudible) land purchased into these structures that is now being delivered to us for home starts. In the first quarter, about 90% of our new land acquisitions were acquired into our off balance sheet land structures. We continue to make significant progress in the first quarter as our year's of supply owned -- year's supply of owned homesites improved to 1.3 years, down from 1.9 years and our controlled homesites percentage increased to 77% from 68% year-over-year.

這 80% 反映了先前購買的（聽不清楚）土地用於這些建築，現在正在交付給我們用於開工。第一季度，我們約 90% 的新購置土地被納入表外土地結構。我們在第一季繼續取得重大進展，我們的自有住宅供應年數從 1.9 年改善到 1.3 年，我們的控制住宅百分比從年比 68% 增加到 77%。

The bottom line is focusing on our operating strategies, which resulted in reduced cycle time and the reduction in land owned has increased our cash flow as well as improved our inventory turn, which now stands at 1.5x versus 1.3x last year, a 15% increase. In the first quarter, we continue to refine the execution of the strategies Stuart has reviewed with you, from the lower marketing and sales machine, from production processes and land strategies, our focus is consistent, improvements are continuous and changes ever present.

最重要的是我們的營運策略，這導致週期時間縮短，擁有土地的減少增加了我們的現金流，並改善了我們的庫存週轉率，庫存週轉率現在為1.5 倍，而去年為1.3 倍，提高了15%增加。第一季度，我們繼續細化斯圖爾特與您一起審查的策略的執行，從較低的營銷和銷售機器，從生產流程和土地策略，我們的重點是一致的，改進是持續的，變化是不斷存在的。

Stuart said, it sounds simple but it isn't. It's a lot of hard work, a lot of trial and error and it takes a lot of grit. Fortunately, we have a great team of associates who have leaned into each of these strategies and are executing at the highest levels. I want to add my appreciation for their hard work and dedication.

史都華說，這聽起來很簡單，但事實並非如此。這需要大量的艱苦工作、大量的嘗試和錯誤，並且需要很大的勇氣。幸運的是，我們擁有一支優秀的員工團隊，他們深入研究每項策略，並以最高水準執行。我想對他們的辛勤工作和奉獻精神表示感謝。

Now I'd like to turn it over to Diane.

現在我想把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon and good morning, everyone. Stuart and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our homebuilding performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes on the results of our financial services operations, summarize again our balance sheet highlights and then provide high-level estimates for Q2 2024.

謝謝喬恩，大家早安。史都華和喬恩為我們的住宅建築表現提供了大量的色彩。因此，我將花幾分鐘時間介紹我們的金融服務營運結果，再次總結我們的資產負債表重點，然後提供 2024 年第二季的高階預測。

So starting with Financial Services. For the first quarter, our financial services team had operating earnings of $131 million. Mortgage operating earnings were $100 million compared to $59 million in the prior year. The increase in earnings was driven by an increase in lock volume, which was the result of higher homebuilding volume and a higher capture rate, as well as higher profit per locked loans, which resulted from higher secondary margins and lower cost per loan as the team continues to focus on efficiencies.

所以從金融服務開始。第一季度，我們的金融服務團隊營業收入為 1.31 億美元。抵押貸款營業收入為 1 億美元，而前一年為 5,900 萬美元。收入的成長是由鎖定量的增加所推動的，鎖定量的增加是房屋建築量增加和捕獲率提高的結果，以及每筆鎖定貸款利潤的增加，這是由於團隊的二級利潤率更高和每筆貸款成本更低繼續注重效率。

Higher operating earnings were $33 million compared to $23 million in the prior year. Title earnings increased primarily as a result of higher volume and greater productivity as the team continues to embrace technology to run a more efficient business. These solid results were accomplished as a result of great synergies between our homebuilding and financial services team. They truly represent the spirit of One Lennar. So now turning to our balance sheet. This quarter, once again, we were steadfast in our determination to turn our inventory and generate cash by maintaining production and pricing homes to market with the goal of delivering as many homes as possible to meet housing demand.

營業利潤從前一年的 2,300 萬美元增加到 3,300 萬美元。頭銜收入的增加主要是由於團隊繼續採用技術來運作更有效率的業務，因此產量增加了，生產力也提高了。這些紮實的成果是我們的住宅建築和金融服務團隊之間巨大協同作用的結果。它們真正代表了 One Lennar 的精神。現在轉向我們的資產負債表。本季度，我們再次堅定決心透過維持生產和按市場定價房屋來扭轉庫存並產生現金，目標是交付盡可能多的房屋以滿足住房需求。

The results of these actions was that we ended the quarter with $5 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.6 billion revolving credit facility. This provided a total liquidity of $7.6 billion. As a result of our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency and reducing our capital investments, we once again made significant progress on our goal of becoming asset light.

這些行動的結果是，我們在本季結束時擁有 50 億美元現金，且 26 億美元循環信貸額度中沒有任何借款。這提供了總計 76 億美元的流動性。由於我們持續專注於資產負債表效率並減少資本投資，我們在輕資產目標上再次取得了重大進展。

As Jon mentioned, at quarter end, our years owned improved to 1.3 years from 1.9 years in the prior year and our homesites controlled increased to 77% from 68% in the prior year, our lowest years owned and highest controlled percent in our history. At quarter end, we owned just under 97,000 homesites and controlled 323,000 homesites for a total of 420,000 homesites.

正如Jon 所提到的，截至季度末，我們的擁有年限從上一年的1.9 年增加到1.3 年，我們的宅基地控制權從上一年的68% 增加到77%，這是我們歷史上最低的擁有年限和最高的控制百分比。截至季末，我們擁有近 97,000 個住宅區，並控制 323,000 個住宅區，總計 420,000 個住宅區。

We believe this portfolio provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow market share in a capital-efficient way. As Jon mentioned, we spent $1.6 billion on land purchases this quarter. However, 80% were finished homesites where vertical construction will soon begin. This is consistent with our manufacturing model of buying land on a just-in-time basis, which is less capital intensive.

我們相信，該投資組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續擴大市場份額。正如 Jon 所提到的，本季我們在土地購買上花費了 16 億美元。然而，80% 的住宅區已完工，垂直施工即將開始。這與我們及時購買土地的製造模式是一致的，這種模式的資本密集程度較低。

Our goal is that over time, we will continue to reduce our ownership of land and purchase homesites on a just-in-time basis and our earnings should more consistently approximate cash flow as the need to invest, reinvest back in the business (inaudible). And finally, looking at returns, our inventory turn was 1.5x and our return on inventory was 30.5%.

我們的目標是，隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續減少土地所有權並及時購買宅基地，我們的收入應更一致地接近現金流，因為需要投資、再投資回業務（聽不清楚） 。最後，從退貨來看，我們的庫存週轉率為 1.5 倍，庫存回報率為 30.5%。

During the quarter and consistent with our production focus, we started about 18,300 homes and ended the quarter with just under 40,000 total homes in inventory. This inventory number includes about 2,200 models and also includes about 1,000 homes that were completed unsold, which is less than one home per community as we successfully managed our finished inventory levels.

在本季度，與我們的生產重點一致，我們開工了約 18,300 套房屋，到本季度末，庫存房屋總數略低於 40,000 套。該庫存數量包括約 2,200 種型號，還包括約 1,000 套已完工但未售出的房屋，由於我們成功管理了成品庫存水平，因此每個社區不到一套房屋。

Consistent with our commitment to strategic capital allocation, we repurchased 3.4 million of our outstanding shares for a total of $506 million. Additionally, during the quarter, as Stuart mentioned, we increased our annual dividend to $2 per share from $1.50 per share.

根據我們對策略資本配置的承諾，我們回購了 340 萬股已發行股票，總價值為 5.06 億美元。此外，正如斯圖爾特所提到的，在本季度，我們將年度股息從每股 1.50 美元增加到每股 2 美元。

So we paid total dividends this quarter of $139 million. And looking at our debt maturity profile, our next senior note maturity is $454 million, which is due in April 2024, so next month. Then there are no maturities until May of 2025.

因此，本季我們支付的股利總額為 1.39 億美元。從我們的債務到期情況來看，我們的下一個優先票據到期日為 4.54 億美元，將於 2024 年 4 月到期，也就是下個月。那麼直到 2025 年 5 月才到期。

We continue to benefit from our previous pay downs of senior notes and strong earnings generation, which brought our homebuilding debt-to-total capital down to 9.6% at quarter end, an improvement from 14.2% in the prior year. We remain committed to increasing shareholder returns. Our stockholders' equity increased to almost $27 billion and our book value per share increased to $95.74 and our return on equity was 15.8%. In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity and low leverage provides us with significant confidence and financial flexibility as we move look through 2024.

我們繼續受益於先前優先票據的償付和強勁的盈利能力，這使我們的住宅建築債務佔總資本的比例在季度末下降至 9.6%，較上一年的 14.2% 有所改善。我們仍然致力於增加股東回報。我們的股東權益增加到近 270 億美元，每股帳面價值增加到 95.74 美元，股本回報率為 15.8%。總之，我們的資產負債表實力、強勁的流動性和低槓桿為我們展望 2024 年提供了巨大的信心和財務彈性。

With that brief overview, I'd like to turn to Q2 and provide some high-level guidance. Starting with new orders. We expect Q2 orders to be in the range of 20,900 to 21,300 homes as we keep our production pace and sales pace closely aligned. We anticipate Q2 deliveries to be in the range of 19,000 to 19,500 homes with a continued focus of efficiently turning inventory into cash.

有了這個簡短的概述，我想轉向第二季並提供一些高級指導。從新訂單開始。我們預計第二季的訂單量將在 20,900 至 21,300 套房屋之間，因為我們保持生產速度和銷售速度緊密結合。我們預計第二季交付量將在 19,000 至 19,500 套房屋之間，並將繼續專注於有效地將庫存轉化為現金。

Our Q2 average sales price should be in the range of $420,000 to $425,000. We expect gross margins to be about 22.5% and our SG&A about 7.2%, with both estimates having some plus or minus depending on market conditions.

我們第二季的平均銷售價格應該在 42 萬美元到 42.5 萬美元之間。我們預計毛利率約為 22.5%，SG&A 約為 7.2%，這兩個預測都會根據市場狀況而增加。

For the combined homebuilding joint venture land sales and other categories, we expect to have earnings of about $25 million. We anticipate our financial services earnings for Q2 to be in the range of $110 million to $115 million based on expected product mix in our mortgage operations.

對於住宅建築合資企業土地銷售和其他類別的合併，我們預計收益約為 2500 萬美元。根據我們抵押貸款業務的預期產品組合，我們預計第二季的金融服務收入將在 1.1 億至 1.15 億美元之間。

We expect a loss of about $20 million for our multifamily business and also a loss of about $20 million for our Lennar other category. So Lennar other estimate does not include any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our public technology investments since that adjustment will be determined by their stock prices at the end of the quarter.

我們預計我們的多戶型業務將損失約 2,000 萬美元，Lennar 其他類別也將損失約 2,000 萬美元。因此，Lennar 的其他估計不包括對我們公共技術投資的任何潛在的按市價調整，因為該調整將由季度末的股價決定。

Our Q2 corporate G&A should be about 1.8% of total revenues and our charitable contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivered. We expect our tax rate to be about 24.5% and the weighted average share count should be approximately 274 million shares. And so on a combined basis, these estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $3.15 to $3.25 per share for the second quarter. For the full year, we remain committed to delivering 80,000 homes, which is about a 10% growth year-over-year, with a gross margin that is consistent with last year's gross margin. We also remain confident with our cash flow generation, as we indicated. As such, we are still targeting a capital allocation of at least $2.5 billion. $454 million, which will be allocated to the April debt maturity that I mentioned and the balance to share repurchases.

我們第二季的企業管理費用應佔總收入的 1.8% 左右，我們的慈善捐款將以每戶交付 1,000 美元為基礎。我們預計稅率約為 24.5%，加權平均股數約為 2.74 億股。因此，綜合起來，這些估計應產生第二季每股收益約 3.15 美元至 3.25 美元。全年我們仍致力於交付8萬套房屋，年增約10%，毛利率與去年毛利率一致。正如我們所指出的，我們對現金流的產生也保持信心。因此，我們的資本配置目標仍然是至少 25 億美元。 4.54 億美元，將分配給我提到的 4 月份到期債務，餘額用於股票回購。

And with that, let me turn it over to the operator.

然後，讓我把它交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And that comes from Alan Ratner with Zelman & Associates.

這是來自 Zelman & Associates 的艾倫·拉特納 (Alan Ratner)。

Nice quarter. Stuart, first one. I wanted to ask you -- it sounds like you -- and maybe I'm reading too much into this but it sounds like you were kind of touching on kind of mortgage qualification issues a little bit more than you have in recent quarters. And I'm curious if you've seen something specifically in the near term that is kind of leading you to highlight that? Or if you're just kind of commenting more broadly on the fact that affordability is stretched, which I don't think is much of a surprise to anybody at this point.

不錯的季度。斯圖爾特，第一個。我想問你——聽起來像你——也許我對這個問題的解釋太多了，但聽起來你比最近幾個季度更多地觸及了抵押貸款資格問題。我很好奇你是否在近期看到了一些特別的事情，這會讓你強調這一點？或者，如果你只是更廣泛地評論負擔能力被拉伸的事實，我認為目前這對任何人來說都不會感到驚訝。

So I think it starts with the fact that affordability is stretched but we are definitely seeing a little bit more credit card debt and personal debt from the customers showing up in their applications. We have seen some delinquencies in some of that debt. Bruce, maybe you'd like to comment a little on that.

因此，我認為首先是負擔能力捉襟見肘，但我們肯定會看到客戶的信用卡債務和個人債務出現在他們的申請中。我們發現其中一些債務有拖欠情況。布魯斯，也許你想對此發表一些評論。

Sure. I think what we're seeing is, when you look at denials in particular, more of the denials are having a higher percentage relating to debt to total income. So there's more debt to pay off and that's something new that we noticed this quarter. We often work with the buyers and we're able to work through a lot of the conditions. But that one point is something that we've seen different this last quarter.

當然。我認為我們看到的是，當你特別關注否認時，更多的否認與債務佔總收入的比例較高。因此，有更多的債務需要償還，這是我們本季注意到的新情況。我們經常與買家合作，並且能夠解決許多問題。但這一點是我們在上個季度看到的不同之處。

Got you. And then second question, it seems like the market is generally tracking in line with what you expected 3 months ago and I think the guidance reflects that. Stuart, I think, 3 months ago, probably really the main difference is, I think we and you and probably everybody -- we're probably expecting rates to be lower by now and some of the inflation metrics might be a little bit stickier than people were hoping for.

明白你了。第二個問題，市場似乎總體上與您 3 個月前的預期一致，我認為指導反映了這一點。斯圖爾特，我認為，三個月前，可能真正的主要區別是，我認為我們和你，可能還有每個人——我們現在可能預計利率會更低，一些通膨指標可能比人們所希望的。

So when you think about the margin guide for the back half of the year, it does imply a pretty healthy ramp. And I think your comments last quarter suggested an expectation that as rates move down, you would be able to pull back a little bit on incentives and discounts.

因此，當您考慮下半年的利潤率指南時，它確實意味著相當健康的成長。我認為您上個季度的評論表明，隨著利率下降，您將能夠稍微減少激勵和折扣。

So I'm just curious if that thought process has changed at all or if you're seeing enough on the demand side today, that you've either already done the heavy lifting on pulling back on incentives? Or you're confident that that's going to transpire over the next few months?

因此，我只是好奇這種思考過程是否發生了根本變化，或者您今天是否在需求方面看到了足夠的信息，或者您已經在取消激勵措施方面做出了重大努力？或者您有信心這將在未來幾個月內發生？

Really interesting question, Alan. And let's start with the fact that demand is strong. And I can't emphasize that enough. That demand is strong. Now with that said, there's limited supply and there's also affordability factors that are playing into this. And yes, there was a bit of enthusiasm in the market that interest rates were going to be moving down a number of times as we went through 2024.

非常有趣的問題，艾倫。讓我們從需求強勁這一事實開始。我怎麼強調都不為過。這種需求很強烈。話雖如此，供應有限，而且還有負擔能力因素在起作用。是的，市場上有一些熱情，認為 2024 年利率將會多次下降。

Some of that enthusiasm has subsided. What I love about our program is that our program cuts through the middle. What I don't see is another ramp up in interest rates but anything can happen. But inflation hasn't yet revealed itself as fully under control. And I don't feel like the Fed has built up that confidence yet that says we're ready to start moving interest rates.

部分熱情已經消退。我喜歡我們的計劃的一點是我們的計劃從中間切入。我沒有看到利率再次上升，但任何事情都有可能發生。但通貨膨脹尚未完全控制。我認為聯準會還沒有建立起我們已準備好開始調整利率的信心。

And our program enables us to succeed quite well if interest rates move down. In fact, we're really levered to the fact that if interest rates move down, our margins should do quite well. But to the extent that interest rates basically stay the same or migrate upward a little bit, we're still pushing volume, pushing focus on rationalizing expenses or the cost of building homes together with maximizing price and minimizing incentives that actually have to be used in order to generate strong margins.

如果利率下降，我們的計劃使我們能夠取得很好的成功。事實上，我們確實利用了這樣一個事實：如果利率下降，我們的利潤率應該會表現得很好。但在利率基本上保持不變或略有上移的情況下，我們仍在推動交易量，推動重點放在合理化支出或建造房屋的成本上，同時最大化價格並最小化實際必須使用的激勵措施。以產生強勁的利潤。

So our view today stands exactly as it was 3 months ago, even though there was more enthusiasm at that time for rates going down. We feel pretty strongly that we're going to be able to accomplish the margin levels that we've talked about in the environment regardless of how it moves forward.

因此，我們今天的觀點與三個月前完全相同，儘管當時人們對降息抱持更大的熱情。我們堅信，無論未來如何發展，我們都將能夠達到我們在環境中討論過的利潤水平。

We have a lot of levers to pull. And I think that we're really connected to the market and we're very focused on production. And I think that production needs leverage of costs, whether it's SG&A or cost of production. And I think we're going to be able to produce our margin. Jon, anything?

我們有很多槓桿可以拉動。我認為我們確實與市場緊密相連，並且非常專注於生產。我認為生產需要利用成本，無論是銷售管理費用或生產成本。我認為我們將能夠產生利潤。喬恩，有什麼事嗎？

I think you covered it. As we said, we continue to refine our ability to focus on the right price per home, which we feel confident will allow us become even better at those communities and markets where we can pull back our incentives even more and we'll continue to find that. And I think that informs our confidence in what we see for the rest of the year.

我認為你涵蓋了它。正如我們所說，我們將繼續提高專注於每套房屋的正確價格的能力，我們相信這將使我們在那些我們可以進一步取消激勵措施的社區和市場上變得更好，我們將繼續尋找。我認為這增強了我們對今年剩餘時間的信心。

Next question comes from Stephen Kim with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Stephen Kim。

I appreciate all the color. I had a little bit of difficulty catching all your comments. So apologies if I'm repeating anything here. But I believe, Stuart, you were discussing maybe a new iteration of Quarterra. And maybe -- I don't know if you're still calling it that. But this time, you talked about $4 billion worth of land, I think, being included in this entity.

我欣賞所有的顏色。我有點難以理解你們所有的評論。如果我在這裡重複任何內容，我深表歉意。但我相信，Stuart，您可能正在討論 Quarterra 的新版本。也許——我不知道你是否仍然這麼稱呼它。但這次，你談到了價值 40 億美元的土地，我認為，被納入這個實體。

Just wanted to get some more color around that. So is that about a half a year's worth of land? How is that $4 billion different from what was initially conceived? I think you initially talked about $4 billion but I believe most of those have now already been put into fund structures. So what is this $4 billion in land? And how is it different? And then is it including other maybe what not -- we might consider non-core assets as well? Can you just give us some more color on this new Quarterra?

只是想為此獲得更多顏色。那麼這大約是半年的土地價值嗎？這 40 億美元與最初設想有何不同？我想你最初談到的是 40 億美元，但我相信其中大部分現在已經投入基金結構。那麼這40億美元的土地是什麼呢？有何不同？那麼它是否包括其他可能不包括的資產——我們也可能會考慮非核心資產？您能給我們更多關於這個新 Quarterra 的顏色嗎？

Okay. So first of all, I have PTSD going backwards and talking about the prior spin. So I'm not going to use the Quarterra name right now. Is that okay with you, Steve?

好的。首先，我對創傷後壓力症候群（PTSD）進行回顧並談論先前的旋轉。所以我現在不打算使用 Quarterra 這個名字。你覺得可以嗎，史蒂夫？

Totally fine.

完全沒問題。

I'm going to just -- okay. Good. So I'm not going to talk about this as a reincarnation of Quarterra because it isn't. With the prior spin, we were focused #1 on a tax-free spin. And #2, it was basically our multifamily, single-family for rent assets that we were spinning into a different kind of operation.

我就——好吧。好的。所以我不會將其視為 Quarterra 的轉世，因為它不是。在之前的旋轉中，我們的重點是免稅旋轉。第二，這基本上是我們的多戶、單戶出租資產，我們正在將其轉變為不同類型的業務。

This is specifically taxable spin, straight down the fairway, land that is basically under production that is regular operating land, it is not excess or ancillary property or anything like that, it should be cash flowing immediately and it is just a straightforward spin of a land program that dovetails extremely well with what we already have in place relative to other land banking programs.

這是特別應稅的旋轉，直接沿著球道，基本上正在生產的土地是常規經營土地，它不是多餘的或附屬財產或類似的東西，它應該立即流動現金流，這只是一個簡單的旋轉土地計劃與我們現有的其他土地儲備計劃非常吻合。

This enables us to build yet another vertical that will be complementary to the others that we have but it gives us a broader range of feeders that enable us to fortify the durability of our land-light strategy. And that's been our focus is, how do we make sure and ensure that the market conditions we have today are market conditions that we can depend on in the future?

這使我們能夠建立另一個垂直市場，該垂直市場將與我們現有的其他垂直市場互補，但它為我們提供了更廣泛的支線，使我們能夠加強我們的陸光戰略的持久性。我們關注的焦點是，我們如何確保並確保我們今天擁有的市場條件是我們未來可以依賴的市場條件？

Yes, we have land developers. Yes, we have land sellers that we auction land from. But we also have the added benefit of land banking structures and we're creating another unique land banking structure with a permanent capital vehicle attribute that enables us to create that durability, that confidence that as we go forward, just like with lumber, just like with appliances, land becomes more of a commodity that we take down just in time.

是的，我們有土地開發商。是的，我們有土地賣家來拍賣土地。但我們也擁有土地儲備結構的額外好處，我們正在創建另一種獨特的土地儲備結構，具有永久資本工具屬性，使我們能夠創造持久性，以及我們前進時的信心，就像木材一樣，就像有了電器，土地更像是我們及時拆除的商品。

That's really helpful. Appreciate the distinction there. How about these other assets which were initially conceived to be in this entity, previously been called Quarterra? Are there any plans for that?

這真的很有幫助。欣賞那裡的區別。最初設想屬於這個實體（之前被稱為 Quarterra）的其他資產怎麼樣？有這方面的計畫嗎？

Well, I think it's widely known that relative to our first fund of multifamily, where we do have some investment, that is currently under discussion as to how it will -- it has come to the end of its fund life and we're considering either a sale of some kind of extension program or something.

嗯，我認為眾所周知，相對於我們的第一隻多戶型基金，我們確實有一些投資，目前正在討論它將如何進行——它的基金生命週期已經結束，我們正在考慮出售某種擴展程序或其他東西。

Those assets will, over time, burn off. The new focus on multifamily is to be building in a more distinctly private equity-based program where we become much more of a production engine for more affordable product. The products that we were building historically have probably kind of fallen out of favor given interest rate changes.

隨著時間的推移，這些資產將會被燒掉。對多戶住宅的新關注是建立一個更明顯的基於私募股權的計劃，在這個計劃中，我們更多地成為更實惠產品的生產引擎。鑑於利率變化，我們歷史上開發的產品可能已經失​​寵了。

And yet affordable rental product is very desirable and something that we can produce much more comfortably within the Lennar homebuilding divisions. And so it will be much more of a production merchant build kind of program spending regularly just like the rest of our product.

然而，價格實惠的租賃產品非常令人嚮往，我們可以在 Lennar 住宅建築部門內更輕鬆地生產這種產品。因此，這將更像是一個生產商建立一種定期支出的項目，就像我們產品的其他部分一樣。

Okay. Got you. That's helpful. The second question I had is, I think earlier you were discussing in your prepared remarks, the cash that you have on your balance sheet, $5 billion and I think you acknowledged that there was some interest in seeing how you were going to deploy that.

好的。明白你了。這很有幫助。我的第二個問題是，我想您早些時候在準備好的發言中討論了您資產負債表上的現金，50 億美元，我想您承認有人有興趣了解您將如何部署它。

And I believe you talked about that -- your response to that was that -- talked about a strengthening of your relationship with your land partners, how that has evolved, how would it have been tested over the last 1.5 years? And you have come through that now to at a place where you have now a much more robust relationship battle tested with your partners.

我相信你談到了這一點 - 你對此的回應是 - 談到了加強你與土地合作夥伴的關係，這種關係是如何演變的，在過去 1.5 年裡它會受到怎樣的考驗？現在你已經經歷了這一切，現在你與你的伴侶之間的關係變得更加牢固。

And so it seemed to me that you were suggesting that the excess cash as you were holding maybe no longer served the purpose that it once did. I want to make sure that I am paraphrasing what you were saying correctly. And if so, it sort of still leaves open the question of -- is there anything else that you might be waiting for, that you want to be patient about to see before maybe deploying that cash?

因此，在我看來，您的意思是您持有的多餘現金可能不再像以前那樣發揮作用。我想確保我正確地解釋了你所說的話。如果是這樣，那麼問題仍然懸而未決——在部署這筆現金之前，您是否還需要等待其他事情，或者您想耐心等待看看？

Look, we've been unapologetic about the patient. As we've migrated to a land-light strategy, we wanted to be patient about recognizing that we are developing new sources of land relationships. We want to make sure that as the market ebbs and flows, that what we depended on didn't evaporate and then all of a sudden, we needed to have capital to be able to grow, to be able to produce.

看，我們對病人毫無歉意。當我們轉向輕土地策略時，我們希望耐心地認識到我們正在開發新的土地關係來源。我們希望確保，隨著市場的潮起潮落，我們所依賴的東西不會消失，然後突然之間，我們需要擁有資本才能成長、能夠生產。

I think we've gained a tremendous amount of confidence in the structures that we've built. We're continuing to gain that confidence. We're looking to build more of those structures in order to have that durability baked in. So that we're much -- we're very comfortable holding a stronger balance sheet to just make sure that as we go forward, we continue to grow forward and have the capacity to do that.

我認為我們對我們所建造的結構充滿了信心。我們正在繼續獲得這種信心。我們希望建造更多這樣的結構，以便具有耐久性。因此，我們非常願意保持更強勁的資產負債表，以確保在我們前進的過程中，我們繼續不斷成長並有能力做到這一點。

I think as we've gained confidence, the need for holding that cash becomes less and less important. I think that our $5 billion share repurchase authorization is an indicator that we're moving more into returning capital to shareholders, along with our dividend. And it's all in stepping stones.

我認為，隨著我們信心的增強，持有現金的必要性變得越來越不重要。我認為我們 50 億美元的股票回購授權表明我們正在更多地向股東返還資本以及股息。而這一切都是墊腳石。

We're not afraid to go slower rather than to go fast. But the fact of the matter is we don't have something else out there that we're looking at, that we're anticipating using cash for. It is simply safety stock, so to speak, to make sure that the funding system we put in place is durable for the future. And we'll continue to make sure that we're positioned for the future. And as we get that confidence you can expect that we'll be buying back more stock. And that's where the allocation of capital is going to go. It's not going to go to something else that's unanticipated right now.

我們不怕走得慢，而不是害怕走得快。但事實是，我們沒有其他我們正在考慮的、我們期望使用現金的東西。可以說，這只是安全庫存，以確保我們建立的融資體系在未來具有持久性。我們將繼續確保我們為未來做好準備。當我們獲得這種信心時，您可以預期我們將回購更多股票。這就是資本配置的去向。它不會去處理其他目前無法預料的事情。

The next question comes from Mike Rehaut with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Mike Rehaut。

I appreciate all the detail and color as always. Two questions. First, a little bit more obviously on the -- on this proposed land spin. And just want to make sure I'm thinking about it correctly because initially, I think, to Steve's prior question, it kind of hit on different areas of your current land program or prior iterations of how you're thinking about moving different assets on or off the balance sheet.

我一如既往地欣賞所有的細節和顏色。兩個問題。首先，關於這個建議的陸地旋轉，有一點更明顯。只是想確保我的想法是正確的，因為最初，我認為，對於史蒂夫之前的問題，它有點觸及您當前土地計劃的不同領域，或者您考慮如何轉移不同資產的先前迭代或計入資產負債表外。

So it kind of sounds like this might be more of a -- when you talk about a spin and the new or separate vehicle, my mind is kind of moving a little bit towards the Forestar type of relationship of -- that they have with D.R. Horton. And the fact that there's a lot of land that is on the Forestar entity that is -- has a lot of rights of first refusal, et cetera, to Horton, as opposed to something that I thought was more of the direction when you started talking about this, which was kind of more moving land towards your existing land banking or land bankers relationships, primarily thinking about the large facility that you have with Angelo Gordon.

所以聽起來這可能更像是——當你談論旋轉和新的或單獨的車輛時，我的想法有點傾向於Forestar類型的關係——他們與D.R.霍頓。事實上，Forestar 實體上有很多土地，霍頓擁有很多優先購買權等，這與你開始談論時我認為更有方向的東西相反關於這一點，這對你現有的土地銀行或土地銀行家關係有更多的推動作用，主要是考慮你與安吉洛戈登擁有的大型設施。

So just want to make sure that I'm thinking about it correctly in terms of it being more the former than the latter. And thinking about that $4 billion number, I mean, right now, in your press release, you have about $4.5 billion of -- or $4.7 billion of land and land under development. So $4 billion would be a huge number, huge percentage of that amount.

所以只是想確保我對它的思考是正確的，因為它更多的是前者而不是後者。考慮到 40 億美元的數字，我的意思是，現在，在你們的新聞稿中，你們有大約 45 億美元——即 47 億美元的土地和正在開發的土地。因此，40 億美元將是一個巨大的數字，佔該金額的巨大比例。

I just want to make sure that I'm understanding that, that $4 billion is coming out of that bucket and that would in effect represent over 80% of your lots owned that are on your balance sheet today.

我只是想確保我明白這一點，40 億美元將從這個桶中流出，這實際上代表了您今天資產負債表上所擁有土地的 80% 以上。

So Mike, I recognize you thirst for more detail and we'll give you more detail as we refine our program. And I wouldn't be thinking about it through the lens of Forestar, we're probably not going to go in that direction. But we recognize that you would like to know more and we'll give you greater detail as we refine the program.

麥克，我知道您渴望更多細節，我們將在完善計劃時為您提供更多細節。我不會從 Forestar 的角度來思考這個問題，我們可能不會朝那個方向發展。但我們認識到您想了解更多信息，我們將在完善該計劃時為您提供更多詳細信息。

Mike, the other thing I would add because -- that you might have been alluding to it is that this will be structured, so there won't be any consolidation on our balance sheet. It would be a true spin of land that's in a separate entity, so we wouldn't have any of those complexities of consolidation.

麥克，我要補充的另一件事是，您可能已經提到過，這將是結構化的，因此我們的資產負債表上不會有任何合併。這將是一個真正的獨立實體中的土地旋轉，因此我們不會遇到任何合併的複雜性。

Okay. So just on that point, if you're talking about a $4 billion type of number, it would appear that, that represents the -- again, over 80% of the land and land under development. So we're talking about, in effect, the majority of your land holdings. Is that the right way to think about it?

好的。因此，就這一點而言，如果您談論的是 40 億美元類型的數字，那麼這似乎代表了超過 80% 的土地和正在開發的土地。因此，我們實際上談論的是您擁有的大部分土地。這是正確的思考方式嗎？

We have been moving to a land-light strategy. That would be correct.

我們一直在轉向陸上輕型戰略。那是正確的。

Okay. Secondly, on the gross margin front, was asked earlier about back half of the year. And it seems like to get to the guidance of roughly flat year-over-year for the full year, you're looking at back half gross margins of roughly 24% on average. We talked about maybe the mortgage market being perhaps less potentially of a downward slope throughout the year than was initially anticipated.

好的。其次，在毛利率方面，早些時候有人問到今年下半年的情況。全年的指引似乎與去年同期基本持平，下半年毛利率平均約為 24%。我們談到，抵押貸款市場全年下滑的可能性可能比最初預期的要小。

What is necessary to hit that 24% in the back half? Is it kind of already, I would assume, on the books from a land cost basis, construction cost basis. Or are there -- do you need to have less costly incentives or better pricing? Because at this point, to the extent that, that doesn't come through, it seemed like the only way to hit that 24% if it was much more of just a mix and what's coming through the pipe, so to speak.

下半場要達到 24% 的命中率需要什麼？我認為，在土地成本基礎、建築成本基礎上，這已經是一種紀錄了。或是需要成本較低的激勵措施或更優惠的定價？因為在這一點上，在某種程度上，這還沒有實現，如果它更多地只是混合和通過管道輸送的東西，那麼這似乎是達到 24% 的唯一方法。

So as we've detailed, our focus and programming has been really carefully crafted by design to focus on using our production programs to bring down costs and to use our machine to focus on right pricing, whether it's price increases that the market gives them or whether it's the very carefully crafted use of incentives. So the first thing is, past reconciliations together with copper prices, we feel comfortable that we're going to be able to migrate in that direction.

因此，正如我們所詳述的，我們的重點和編程經過精心設計，專注於使用我們的生產程序來降低成本，並使用我們的機器專注於正確的定價，無論是市場給予他們的價格上漲還是是否是精心設計的激勵措施。因此，第一件事是，根據過去與銅價的調節，我們對能夠朝這個方向遷移感到放心。

The second part of it is leverage. As we go through the year, we're generally producing and delivering more homes. So there are some embedded leverage in that. And so there are a lot of moving parts that make up our view of where our margin is likely to go. Of course, market conditions can change. They can change to the positive and to the negative.

第二部分是槓桿。在這一年中，我們通常會生產和交付更多的房屋。所以其中有一些內在的槓桿作用。因此，有許多變化因素決定了我們對利潤可能走向的看法。當然，市場狀況可能會改變。它們可以改變為積極的和消極的。

And we've been very clear that, that margin is somewhat of a springboard for maintaining the volume that we expect to maintain. So there will be elements of the economic environment that factor into it as well. Can I detail specifically what the relationships are in those numbers? I don't think so right now. But it's a combination of all of those pieces that will drive our margins to where we expect them to be for the year.

我們非常清楚，該利潤率在某種程度上是維持我們期望維持的銷售的跳板。因此，經濟環境因素也會影響其中。我可以具體詳細說明這些數字之間的關係嗎？我現在不這麼認為。但所有這些因素的結合將推動我們今年的利潤率達到我們預期的水平。

We do have some visibility in some of the sales that have come through and we continue to have confidence that we're going to be able to get to that number -- to those numbers by the end of the year.

我們確實對一些已經完成的銷售有一定的了解，我們仍然有信心我們將能夠在今年年底之前達到這個數字。

And I think as we said earlier, assuming interest rates stay relatively flat with where they are, we think we can continue to improve our operational view of how to increase margins in that same interest rate environment.

我認為，正如我們之前所說，假設利率與當前水準保持相對持平，我們認為我們可以繼續改進我們在相同利率環境下如何提高利潤率的營運觀點。

The next question comes from Kenneth Zener with Seaport Research Partners.

下一個問題來自 Seaport Research Partners 的 Kenneth Zener。

Want to start kind of high level here to understand or for you to clarify perhaps even flow, where starts lead orders, which is less cyclical. So first high-level question is, what is your start capacity based on kind of your land partners, right? There's some type of guardrails we have there and one of the big focuses of the industry is, are you going to grow or return in general? And on the land spin, why are you guys choosing to introduce this vehicle versus building out the homes or (inaudible) it as you have been doing back already, I guess.

希望在這裡開始某種高層次的了解或讓您澄清甚至可能是流程，從哪裡開始引導訂單，這是週期性較小的。因此，第一個高級問題是，根據您的土地合作夥伴類型，您的啟動能力是多少，對吧？我們在那裡有某種類型的護欄，該行業的一大焦點是，您總體上會成長還是回歸？在陸地旋轉方面，我猜你們為什麼選擇引入這種車輛而不是建造房屋或（聽不清楚）它，就像你們已經在做的那樣。

Yes. So first question first. Production is clearly derived from how many homesites we have available. I think that we have mapped out what we think the production can be given the homesites that we have coming through the system. And we would expect that what you are seeing as a production schedule is very well baked into both the land availability and its cycle of becoming developed homesites.

是的。所以先問第一個問題。產量顯然取決於我們擁有的可用住宅數量。我認為我們已經制定了我們認為可以透過系統提供給家庭網站的製作內容。我們希望您所看到的生產計劃能夠很好地融入土地可用性及其成為開發宅基地的周期。

So think about the way that you're seeing production put in place to get to that, let's call it 80,000 delivery number plus some overage for what falls into the next year, that's already baked into what the start space will be, as I daylighted, to about 21,000 starts this quarter. We have, of course, excellent visibility as to the homesites that are coming through the system for that and likewise into the next quarters as well. Jon, did you want to add anything to that?

因此，請考慮一下為實現這一目標而採取的生產方式，我們將其稱為 80,000 份交付數量，再加上明年的一些超額數量，這已經融入了起始空間中，正如我所指出的那樣，本季啟動約21,000 次。當然，我們對透過該系統進入的住宅區以及接下來幾季的住宅區擁有出色的可見性。喬恩，你想補充什麼嗎？

Related to this first question, the land goes into our land banking relationships, it goes into it with a takedown schedule that's not just what Stuart just described. So there are no guardrails that limit our ability to execute on the planned volume.

與第一個問題相關的是，土地進入了我們的土地儲備關係，它進入了一個拆除時間表，這不僅僅是史都華剛才所描述的那樣。因此，沒有任何護欄限制我們執行計劃數量的能力。

So then as it relates to your second question, we've been very focused on building multiple sources of capital for our auctioning, land banking programs. Actually building a permanent capital vehicle rather than being completely reliant on private equity capital constantly coming into a program, we felt was a greater good and a big benefit. So when you ask the question, why go in a different direction when some of the tried and true direction so far are viable as well?

因此，就你的第二個問題而言，我們一直非常注重為我們的拍賣、土地儲備計畫建立多種資本來源。實際上，建立一個永久的資本工具，而不是完全依賴不斷進入計劃的私募股權資本，我們認為這是一個更大的好處和巨大的好處。因此，當你問這個問題時，既然迄今為止一些經過嘗試的正確方向也是可行的，為什麼還要走不同的方向呢？

They are viable and we continue to lean into those programs. This is an and rather than an or, this to us, is building that durability, that confidence that the capital will be there even as the market ebbs and flows going forward. And so that's why we're choosing to build this way rather than just drive as we have by putting -- taking land from balance sheet, building (inaudible) and all of that, this is a cleaner way to build a permanent capital vehicle that's durable for the future.

它們是可行的，我們將繼續致力於這些計劃。對我們來說，這是一個“與”，而不是“或”，這是在建立一種持久性，一種即使市場未來潮起潮落，資本仍將存在的信心。因此，這就是為什麼我們選擇以這種方式建設，而不是像我們那樣直接開車——從資產負債表上拿走土地，建造（聽不清）等等，這是一種更清潔的方式來建造永久資本工具，經久耐用，適合未來。

Okay. My second question is about margin communication, which is one of the factors affecting investors today. So margins in your forecast for second half, nobody knows the future, right? And you're trying to help us. But I think everything you've been talking about even before was much more important to your capital allocation and the true returns of your company as you go asset light.

好的。我的第二個問題是關於保證金溝通，這是當今影響投資者的因素之一。因此，在您對下半年利潤的預測中，沒有人知道未來，對嗎？而你正試圖幫助我們。但我認為，當你走向輕資產時，你之前所談論的一切對於你的資本配置和公司的真實回報來說要重要得多。

So do you see -- and I think we all can model what that free cash flow will be within a range. Do you see -- when you get to that comfort level, where land is neutralized, therefore, net income equals cash flow, do you guys see yourself systematically buying back stock in line with net income? Or do you -- when we get to that point, or are you guys going to try to time it, obviously with NVR, we see that they've run up a lot of cash. So do you guys -- are you hoping to have essentially buybacks match net income systemically when you're there? Or is there something else we should know about your thinking when that time arrives?

所以你看到了嗎——我認為我們都可以對自由現金流在一定範圍內的情況進行建模。你看到了嗎——當你達到那種舒適水平時，土地被中和，因此，淨利潤等於現金流，你們是否認為自己會根據淨利潤系統地回購股票？或者你們會——當我們到達這一點時，或者你們會嘗試計時，顯然是使用 NVR，我們看到他們已經耗盡了很多現金。那麼，你們是否希望當你們在那裡時，回購基本上與淨利潤相符？或者到時候我們還要了解您的想法嗎？

No. I think that, generally speaking, I think we're migrating to a more orderly buyback program. We've been conservative in our buyback program. As I've noted, to make sure that the systems that we put in place are durable for our future. So that conservatism shouldn't be confused. As we look ahead, we don't have a thought process around the different use of cash. In fact, we're growing into the cash flow model that we created. And as we find that it is more durable, sustainable and we test kind of the edges, we can kind of expect that the cash we're generating is basically going to go right back into stock buyback.

不。我認為，總的來說，我們正在轉向更有序的回購計劃。我們的回購計劃一直很保守。正如我所指出的，為了確保我們建立的系統對我們的未來來說是耐用的。所以保守主義不應該被混淆。展望未來，我們沒有圍繞現金的不同用途來思考。事實上，我們正​​在成長為我們創建的現金流模型。當我們發現它更耐用、更永續，我們測試了一些優勢時，我們可以預期我們產生的現金基本上會直接回到股票回購中。

Yes, Ken, I think what I would add is, as you know, previously, we prioritized debt repayment over that. But after we make this April payment, we'll only have $2 billion of notes outstanding and it's one in '25, one in '26 and I think the other is in '27. So we don't have that priority to focus on anymore. So I think Stuart's point is an important one that stock buyback literally does become the priority because I think we've done the enough job of deleveraging the balance sheet from a debt standpoint.

是的，肯，我想我要補充的是，正如你所知，以前我們優先考慮償還債務。但在我們支付今年 4 月的款項後，我們將只有 20 億美元的未償票據，其中一張是 25 年的，一張是 26 年的，我認為另一張是 27 年的。所以我們不再需要關注這個優先事項。因此，我認為史都華的觀點很重要，即股票回購確實成為優先事項，因為我認為從債務的角度來看，我們在資產負債表去槓桿化方面已經做了足夠的工作。

And why don't we go to our last question now.

為什麼我們現在不討論最後一個問題？

That last question is from John Lovallo with UBS.

最後一個問題是瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的約翰·洛瓦洛 (John Lovallo) 提出的。

I mean I guess the first one, just going back to the spin for a moment. I mean if the purpose here is to sort of guarantee capital for Lennar to grow and sort of guarantee land banking, even if private equity pulls back, I mean, it would seem that the spin would need to be very well financed, a strong balance sheet, how much cash do you envision spin needing?

我的意思是我猜是第一個，只是暫時回到旋轉。我的意思是，如果這裡的目的是為 Lennar 的發展提供資本保障，並為土地儲備提供保障，即使私募股權投資退出，我的意思是，這種旋轉似乎需要非常充足的資金、強有力的平衡表，您預計旋轉需要多少現金？

Probably not very much. I think that the assets, as they're configured or as we're thinking about it, should be cash flowing pretty readily. And therefore, the spin will actually spend cash and bring in the cash and redeploy and should work well along, so.

可能不是很多。我認為這些資產，按照它們的配置或我們正在考慮的那樣，應該很容易產生現金流。因此，這次重組實際上會花費現金並帶來現金並重新部署，並​​且應該會順利進行。

Okay. Understood. And then maybe just zeroing in on the second quarter gross margin outlook, which is up about 70 basis points sequentially at the midpoint. Can you just walk us through some of the moving pieces there in terms of fixed cost leverage, net price, cost employee, incremental cost inflation, things of that nature.

好的。明白了。然後也許只是關注第二季的毛利率前景，其中數值比上一季增長約 70 個基點。您能否向我們介紹固定成本槓桿、淨價格、員工成本、增量成本通膨等方面的一些變動因素。

Yes. John, I think that, most of them walked through it in more in detail but I think that if you look at the second quarter of last year, it's very comparable. So you can see the leverage pickup, particularly in field expenses. Just in order of magnitude, you kind of get a lot of pickup just from that perspective. So that's certainly helpful. And I don't know if there's anything more to say on that. I think we've talked about controlling incentives, selling the right homes but part of the credibility should be just the operating leverage that we're going to get in addition to the other things that we spoke about.

是的。約翰，我認為他們中的大多數人都更詳細地了解了它，但我認為如果你看看去年第二季度，它非常具有可比性。所以你可以看到槓桿率的上升，特別是在現場費用方面。就數量級而言，從這個角度來看，你會得到很多收穫。所以這肯定有幫助。我不知道對此還有什麼好說的。我認為我們已經討論過控制激勵措施、出售合適的房屋，但可信度的一部分應該只是我們除了我們談到的其他事情之外還將獲得的營運槓桿。

Okay. Well, that wraps it up for this quarter. I thank everybody for joining us for the quarter that we put forth. We look forward to reporting more progress as we go forward. Thanks for your time and we'll get to next quarter.

好的。好了，本季的內容就到此結束了。我感謝大家加入我們提出的這個季度。我們期待著報告更多進展。感謝您抽出時間，我們將進入下個季度。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. Have a wonderful day and you may disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。祝你有美好的一天，你可能會斷開連接。