Lennar Corp (LEN.B) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Lennar's fourth-quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎參加 Lennar 第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

I will now turn the call over to David Collins for the reading of the forward-looking statement.

現在我將把電話轉給大衛‧柯林斯，讓他宣讀前瞻性聲明。

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Today's conference call may include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding Lennar's business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows, strategies and prospects. Forward-looking statements represent only Lennar's estimates on the date of this conference call and are not intended to give any assurance as to actual future results.

謝謝大家，大家早安。今天的電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關 Lennar 業務、財務狀況、營運績效、現金流、策略和前景的陳述。前瞻性陳述僅代表 Lennar 對本次電話會議之日的估計，並不旨在對未來的實際結果提供任何保證。

Because forward-looking statements relate to matters that have not yet occurred, these statements are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could affect future results and may cause Lennar's actual activities or results to differ materially from the activities and results anticipated in forward-looking statements. These factors include those described in our earnings release and our SEC filings, including those under the caption Risk Factors contained in Lennar's annual report on Form 10-K most recently filed with the SEC. Please note that Lennar assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

由於前瞻性陳述涉及尚未發生的事項，因此這些陳述本質上會受到風險和不確定性的影響。許多因素可能影響未來的結果，並可能導致 Lennar 的實際活動或結果與前瞻性陳述中預期的活動和結果有重大差異。這些因素包括我們的收益發布和 SEC 文件中描述的因素，包括 Lennar 最近向 SEC 提交的 10-K 表格年度報告中「風險因素」標題下的因素。請注意，Lennar 不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

I would like to introduce your host, Mr. Stuart Miller, Executive Chairman and CEO. Sir, you may begin.

我想介紹一下你們的主持人，執行主席兼首席執行官斯圖爾特·米勒先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Very good and thank you. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining today. I'm in Miami today, together with Jon Jaffe, our Co-CEO and President; Diane Bessette, our Chief Financial Officer; David Collins, who you just heard from, our Controller and Vice President; Fred Rothman is here, our Chief Operating Officer; and Marshall Lanes as well, Chairman of the Lennar Charitable Foundation along with a few others.

非常好，謝謝。大家早安，感謝您今天的加入。我今天在邁阿密，與我們的聯合執行長兼總裁 Jon Jaffe 在一起。 Diane Bessette，我們的財務長；大衛‧柯林斯 (David Collins)，您剛收到了我們的財務長兼副總裁的來信； Fred Rothman 來了，我們的營運長；還有萊納慈善基金會主席馬歇爾萊恩斯 (Marshall Lanes) 以及其他一些人。

As usual, I'm going to give a macro and strategic overview of the company. After my introductory remarks, Jon is going to give an operational overview, updating some construction cost, cycle time and some of our land strategy and position. As usual, Diane is going to give a detailed financial highlights along with some limited guidance for the first quarter of 2025. And then, of course, we'll have our question-and-answer period. And as usual, I'd like to ask that you please limit to one question, one follow-up, so that we can accommodate as many as possible.

像往常一樣，我將對公司進行宏觀和策略概述。在我的介紹性演講之後，喬恩將提供營運概述，更新一些建築成本、週期時間以及我們的一些土地策略和立場。像往常一樣，黛安將提供詳細的財務亮點以及 2025 年第一季的一些有限指導。像往常一樣，我想請您限制為一個問題，一個後續問題，以便我們可以容納盡可能多的問題。

So let me begin. Our fourth quarter was a challenging quarter at Lennar as interest rates declined approximately 100 basis points through the quarter and further challenged affordability. Starting early in the quarter, we saw sales stall at then existing price and incentive levels. That necessitated increased incentives, interest rate buydowns and price adjustments to activate sales and avoid increased inventory buildup. Accordingly, our fourth quarter results missed expectations as new orders were 16,895 short of the 19,000, we expected, and our gross margin was 22.1%, short of the 22.5% that we expected.

那麼就讓我開始吧。對 Lennar 來說，第四季度是充滿挑戰的季度，因為該季度利率下降了約 100 個基點，進一步挑戰了承受能力。從本季初開始，我們發現銷售在當時的價格和激勵水平上停滯不前。這就需要增加激勵措施、利率下調和價格調整，以啟動銷售並避免庫存增加。因此，我們第四季的業績未達到預期，因為新訂單比我們預期的 19,000 份少了 16,895 份，毛利率為 22.1%，比我們預期的 22.5% 少。

The shortfall in margin resulted from increased incentives on homes sold and delivered within the quarter. Accordingly, we are moderating our expectations for margins and sales in the first quarter of 2025 as the market adjusts and stabilized. Overall, the economic environment, which we believe last quarter was constructive for the homebuilding industry, has certainly turned more challenging as longer-term interest rates, along with mortgage rates have climbed steadily since our last earnings call.

利潤率下降是由於本季銷售和交付房屋的激勵措施增加。因此，隨著市場調整和穩定，我們調整了對 2025 年第一季利潤率和銷售額的預期。總體而言，我們認為上季度對住宅建築業有利的經濟環境肯定變得更具挑戰性，因為自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，長期利率和抵押貸款利率穩步攀升。

While underlying demand for new homes remains very strong and the supply of available dwelling remains chronically short, a combination of wavering consumer confidence and elevated cost of acquisition have challenged the customers desire and ability to transact. While there continues to be considerable traffic of customers looking for homes, the urgency to actually transact has quieted as customers adjust to a new normal.

儘管對新房的潛在需求仍然非常強勁，而且可用住宅的供應仍然長期短缺，但消費者信心的動搖和購買成本的上升對客戶的交易意願和能力提出了挑戰。儘管尋找房屋的客戶流量仍然相當大，但隨著客戶適應新常態，實際交易的緊迫性已經減弱。

Of course, affordability has been a limiting factor for demand and access to homeownership for some time now. Inflation and interest rates have hindered the ability of the average family to accumulate a down payment or to qualify for a mortgage. Higher interest rates have also locked households in lower interest rate mortgages and curtailed the natural move up as families expand and need more space. Rate buydowns and incentives have enabled demand to access the market.

當然，一段時間以來，負擔能力一直是需求和獲得住房的限制因素。通貨膨脹和利率阻礙了普通家庭累積首付或獲得抵押貸款的能力。較高的利率也將家庭鎖定在較低利率的抵押貸款中，並限制了隨著家庭擴張和需要更多空間而自然上升的趨勢。利率下調和激勵措施使需求​​能夠進入市場。

While consumers remain employed and are generally confident that they will remain employed and their compensation will rise, higher interest rates and inflation have outstripped their ability or desire to act. While strong employment often goes hand in hand with a strong housing market, interest rates have put many with need on the sidelines. As strong demand enabled by incentives and mortgage rate buydowns has driven the new home market over the past years. We expect the broad-based demand cycle to reestablish to reestablish as rates stabilize or even moderate and as pent-up demand continues to build against short supply.

儘管消費者仍然有工作，並且普遍相信他們將繼續就業並且他們的薪酬將會上升，但更高的利率和通貨膨脹已經超出了他們採取行動的能力或願望。雖然強勁的就業往往與強勁的房地產市場齊頭並進，但利率卻讓許多有需求的人處於觀望狀態。由於激勵措施和抵押貸款利率下調帶來的強勁需求在過去幾年推動了新房市場的發展。我們預計，隨著利率穩定甚至溫和，以及被壓抑的需求繼續在供應短缺的情況下增加，廣泛的需求週期將重新建立。

While demand has been constrained by affordability, the supply of homes remains constrained. The well-documented chronic housing shortage is the result of years of underproduction. This shortage is exacerbated by continuing shortfalls in production driven by now muted demand, together with already existing restricted land permitting and higher impact fees at local levels and higher construction costs across the housing landscape. Mayors and governors across the country are acutely aware of the housing shortage and shortfall in their respective geographies. Many have been pounding the table about the need for affordable housing attainable housing and workforce housing in their respective markets.

儘管需求受到負擔能力的限制，但房屋的供應仍受到限制。有據可查的長期住房短缺是多年生產不足的結果。由於目前需求疲軟，導致產量持續短缺，加上現有的土地許可限制、地方影響費上漲以及整個住房領域的建築成本上升，加劇了這種短缺。全國各地的市長和州長都敏銳地意識到各自地區的住房短缺和短缺問題。許多人一直在討論各自市場對經濟適用住房和勞動力住房的需求。

On a final note, immigration and tariffs have recently been added to the list of questions and potential concerns confronting the industry. We recognize that the landscape is still being shaped around these issues and cannot be addressed with certainty. Nevertheless, our early evaluation suggests limited impact to us and to the industry, and Jon will discuss this in further detail shortly.

最後一點，移民和關稅最近已被添加到該行業面臨的問題和潛在擔憂清單中。我們認識到，這些問題的格局仍在形成，無法確定地解決。儘管如此，我們的早期評估表明對我們和行業的影響有限，喬恩很快就會進一步詳細討論這一點。

Against this macro backdrop, we continue to have conviction around the two poor parts of our operating strategy. First, we are focused on volume and matching our production with the sales base. While our execution in the fourth quarter was challenged by the rapid and unexpected change in the direction of interest rates, we did adjust and adapt to new market conditions, and we adjusted incentives and pricing, and we did not enable our inventory levels to spike. We are currently focused on keeping sales volume up as we accelerate in order to catch our pace and correct the sales miss that we had in the fourth quarter.

在這種宏觀背景下，我們仍然對營運策略中的兩個弱點充滿信心。首先，我們專注於數量並將我們的生產與銷售基地相匹配。儘管我們在第四季度的執行受到利率方向快速且意外變化的挑戰，但我們確實進行了調整和適應新的市場條件，調整了激勵措施和定價，並且沒有使我們的庫存水準飆升。我們目前的重點是在加速的同時保持銷售的成長，以便跟上我們的步伐並糾正我們在第四季度的銷售失誤。

Of course, the catch-up in sales pace comes at a cost and that cost is additional pressure on margin. Accordingly, as we have looked ahead to the deliveries in the first quarter of 2025, we expect to sell between 17,500 homes and 18,000 homes and deliver between 17,000 and 17,500 homes. We expect our margin to be 19% to 19.25% and as we expect approximately 50% of the deliveries in the quarter will be sold during the quarter, and this will dilute the 20% margin that is already embedded in our backlog. Nevertheless, we are focused on driving sales and closings, driving strong current cash flow even at reduced profitability and maintaining carefully managed inventory levels so that as market conditions stabilize or improve, we will benefit from normalized margins across our growing volume.

當然，追趕銷售速度是有代價的，而這種代價對利潤率造成了額外的壓力。因此，正如我們展望 2025 年第一季的交付情況一樣，我們預計將出售 17,500 套至 18,000 套房屋，並交付 17,000 套至 17,500 套房屋。我們預計我們的利潤率為 19% 至 19.25%，我們預計本季度交付的大約 50% 將在本季度售出，這將稀釋我們已積壓的 20% 利潤。儘管如此，我們仍專注於推動銷售和結帳，即使在盈利能力下降的情況下也能推動強勁的當前現金流，並保持精心管理的庫存水平，以便隨著市場狀況穩定或改善，我們將受益於不斷增長的銷量的正常化利潤。

Secondly and simultaneously, we continue to migrate our operating platform to an asset-light configuration. We are much closer to the completion of the strategic rework of our operating platform from being a land company that happens to build homes to becoming a pure-play land light asset light manufacturing model, homebuilder that benefits from just-in-time finished homesite delivery. Again, we have conviction that our structured asset light land -- land-light model enables far more predictable volume and growth with a much lower asset base and lower risk profile that has been and will continue to be at the core of our operating model. The value of this structure will be seen in the execution of our Rausch Coleman combination in conjunction with the Millrose spin, and I'll discuss this in more detail shortly.

其次，同時，我們繼續將我們的營運平台遷移到輕資產配置。我們更接近完成營運平台的策略重組，從一家碰巧建造房屋的土地公司，轉變為純粹的土地輕資產輕製造模式，受益於及時完成的住宅交付的房屋建築商。我們再次堅信，我們的結構性資產輕土地——輕土地模型能夠以更低的資產基礎和更低的風險狀況實現更可預測的交易量和增長，這已經並將繼續成為我們營運模式的核心。這種結構的價值將在我們的 Rausch Coleman 組合與 Millrose spin 的執行中體現出來，我很快就會更詳細地討論這一點。

Consistent volume and growth enables improving operating efficiencies in construction costs, cycle time, customer acquisition costs and SG&A. Additionally, it has driven consistent and dependable cash flow even with variable bottom line results. And finally, it has enabled the consistent and predictable takedown of just-in-time delivered fully developed home sites, and that has attracted capital to the structured land banking partnerships that have driven the nearly $20 billion of transactions that have enabled our land-light transformation to date. We are confident that our operating strategy of consistent volume and growth with a just-in-time delivery of developed homesites will continue to enable our company to be best positioned to rationalize our cost structure and be best positioned with strong volume as margins normalize.

持續的銷售量和成長能夠提高建築成本、週期時間、客戶獲取成本和銷售管理費用等方面的營運效率。此外，即使底線結果存在變化，它也能帶來一致且可靠的現金流。最後，它使得及時交付的完全開發的住宅用地得以一致且可預測地拆除，並且這吸引了資本進入結構化土地儲備合作夥伴關係，這些合作夥伴關係推動了近200 億美元的交易，使我們的土地輕型化成為可能。我們相信，我們的持續銷售和成長以及及時交付已開發住宅區的營運策略將繼續使我們公司處於最佳位置，以合理化我們的成本結構，並在利潤率正常化時以強勁的銷量處於最佳位置。

Let me turn back briefly to our fourth quarter operating results. As I noted earlier, while we are disappointed with our first quarter -- with our fourth quarter actual results, they do represent a consistent and strategic quarter of operating results in the context of a difficult affordability environment. As mortgage interest rates migrated higher, to around 7% through the quarter, we drove volume with starts, while we incentivized sales to enable affordability.

讓我簡單回顧一下我們第四季的經營業績。正如我之前指出的，雖然我們對第一季和第四季的實際業績感到失望，但它們確實代表了在困難的負擔能力環境下季度營運表現的一致性和策略性。隨著抵押貸款利率上升，整個季度達到 7% 左右，我們透過開工來推動銷量，同時刺激銷售以提高可負擔性。

In our fourth quarter, we started almost 18,500 homes, sold almost 17,000 homes and closed approximately 22,200 homes. While I've already talked about market conditions, later starts in sales were also attributable to a lighter community count at the beginning of the quarter, which has now been corrected. We have been able to solve the community comp shortfall that we described last quarter, and we brought our community count up from 1,283 communities at the end of the third quarter to 1,447 communities, which is now 13% higher than last quarter and 15% higher than the prior year. Our community count positions us materially better to drive the volume we expect at lower absorption rates as we enter 2025. We expect lower absorption rates to put less stress on our margin over time as we deliver between 86,000 and 88,000 homes in 2025, reflecting an 8% to 10% increase over 2024.

第四季度，我們開工了近 18,500 套房屋，售出了近 17,000 套房屋，並關閉了約 22,200 套房屋。雖然我已經討論過市場狀況，但銷售開始較晚也可歸因於本季初社區數量較少，這一問題現已得到糾正。我們已經能夠解決上季度描述的社區補償短缺問題，我們將社區數量從第三季度末的 1,283 個社區增加到 1,447 個社區，目前比上季度增加了 13%，比上季度增加了 15%比上一年。進入2025 年，我們的社群數量使我們能夠更好地以較低的吸收率推動我們預期的銷售量。 ，因為我們將在2025 年交付86,000 至88,000 套房屋，反映出 8比 2024 年增加 % 至 10%。

During the fourth quarter, sales incentives rose to 10.8% as we addressed affordability and the community can lag. As an offset, we were able to maintain construction costs and reduce cycle time, as Jon will detail shortly, and we have maintained our customer acquisition costs while our SG&A rose to 7.2% and reflecting our lower volume and lower average sales price leverage. On the positive side, on the positive side, we have driven production pace in sync with sales pace and abused our margin as a point of adjustment to enable consistent cash flow. Our strategy has enabled us to repurchase another 3 million shares of stock for $521 million in the fourth quarter, bringing our total stock repurchase for the year to 13.6 million shares for over $2 billion in cash.

第四季度，由於我們解決了負擔能力問題，而社區可能會滯後，銷售激勵上升至 10.8%。作為補償，我們能夠維持建設成本並縮短週期時間，正如Jon 稍後將詳細介紹的那樣，我們維持了客戶獲取成本，而SG&A 上升至7.2%，這反映了我們較低的銷量和較低的平均銷售價格槓桿。從積極的一面來看，從積極的一面來看，我們推動了生產速度與銷售速度同步，並濫用我們的利潤率作為調整點，以實現穩定的現金流。我們的策略使我們能夠在第四季以 5.21 億美元的價格再回購 300 萬股股票，使我們全年的股票回購總額達到 1,360 萬股，現金超過 20 億美元。

We ended the quarter with $4.7 billion of cash on book and a 7.5% debt-to-total capital ratio. We are extremely well positioned to spin Millrose and to be able to continue to repurchase shares and reduce debt as we have driven strong overall operating results to date. We continue to be exceptionally positioned as a company from our balance sheet to our operating strategy to be able to adjust and address the market as it unfolds as we enter 2025.

本季結束時，我們的帳面現金為 47 億美元，負債與總資本比率為 7.5%。我們處於非常有利的地位，可以推動 Millrose 的發展，並能夠繼續回購股票並減少債務，因為迄今為止我們已經推動了強勁的整體營運表現。作為一家公司，從資產負債表到營運策略，我們都將繼續保持卓越的定位，以便能夠在進入 2025 年時隨著市場的發展進行調整和應對。

With that said, we're very optimistic about our future. On the one hand, we remain confident that the current volatility driven by affordability and interest rates will subside. Demand will adapt to a new normal and the supply shortage will remain the dominant theme. Volume will continue to help reduce our cost structure and incentives will normalize and margins will normalize, and our increased volume will multiply bottom line. On the other hand, we are equally enthusiastic about the Millrose spin and the Rausch Coleman acquisition and the way both will work together.

話雖如此，我們對未來非常樂觀。一方面，我們仍然相信目前由負擔能力和利率驅動的波動將會消退。需求將適應新常態，供應短缺仍將是主旋律。銷量將繼續幫助我們降低成本結構，激勵措施將正常化，利潤率將正常化，我們增加的銷售量將倍增利潤。另一方面，我們同樣對 Millrose 的分拆和 Rausch Coleman 的收購以及兩者的合作方式充滿熱情。

As most of you know from yesterday's press release, Millrose properties, the subsidiary reform to carry out the spin that we announced some time ago, has now filed a public SEC registration statement, and it is available on the SEC website. In the very near future, the spin-off will be public and that will complete our now almost five-year migration to an asset-light operating model. Millrose will be the first publicly listed land banking REIT and will use our homesite option purchase platform that we call the hopper to provide just-in-time fully developed home site inventory for Lennar, for Lennar related ventures and subsequently to other homebuilders across the US as well.

正如你們大多數人從昨天的新聞稿中了解到的那樣，我們不久前宣布的為進行分拆而進行的子公司改革的Millrose Properties 現已向SEC 提交了公開註冊聲明，並可在SEC 網站上查看。在不久的將來，分拆將是公開的，這將完成我們現在近五年的向輕資產營運模式的轉變。 Millrose 將成為首個公開上市的土地儲備房地產投資信託基金，並將使用我們稱之為“漏斗”的宅基地期權購買平台，為Lennar、Lennar 相關企業以及隨後為美國各地的其他住宅建築商提供及時、完全開發的宅基地庫存以及。

The hopper is a comprehensive suite of systems and procedures used to operate and manage the acquisition, financing and development of land assets at scale designed and refined by Lennar over the past 20 years. Millrose will be externally managed by a subsidiary of Kennedy Lewis Investments and institutional alternative investment firm with approximately $17 billion in AUM and extensive experience with both Lennar and with the land and land development business for homebuilders. All of Millrose's operating costs will be paid by Kennedy Lewis through its management fee, and Millrose will have no employees of its own.

漏斗是 Lennar 在過去 20 年中設計和完善的一套全面的系統和程序，用於操作和管理大規模土地資產的收購、融資和開發。 Millrose 將由 Kennedy Lewis Investments 的子公司和機構另類投資公司進行外部管理，該公司的資產管理規模約為 170 億美元，並且在 Lennar 以及住宅建築商的土地和土地開發業務方面擁有豐富的經驗。 Millrose 的所有營運成本將由 Kennedy Lewis 透過其管理費支付，並且 Millrose 將沒有自己的員工。

Millrose will receive consistent cash flows pursuant to option contracts. It will receive a recurring monthly option payments, which will be used to pay predictable dividends to shareholders and will additionally receive initial deposits and proceeds from the sale of fully developed homesites. Millrose will recycle proceeds from the sale of fully developed homesites into new acquisition and development land deals without needing to raise new investor funds. Accordingly, Millrose is an added source of more permanent capital for Lennar and as an addition to organically negotiated option agreements with developers and other professionally managed programs that are currently private equity base. As such, Millrose is an important evolution of our land-light strategy as it enables growth and inorganic opportunities, improved cash flow generation and strong returns on equity and inventory to Lennar.

Millrose 將根據選擇權合約獲得穩定的現金流。它將收到每月定期的期權付款，該款項將用於向股東支付可預測的股息，並將另外收到初始存款和出售完全開發的住宅區的收益。 Millrose 將把出售完全開發的宅基地的收益回收到新的收購和開發土地交易中，而無需籌集新的投資者資金。因此，Millrose 是 Lennar 更永久資本的額外來源，也是與開發商和目前以私募股權為基礎的其他專業管理專案有機談判的選擇協議的補充。因此，Millrose 是我們輕土地策略的重要演變，因為它為 Lennar 帶來了成長和無機機遇、改善了現金流生成以及強勁的股本和庫存回報。

Lennar will contribute to Millrose approximately $5.2 billion of undeveloped and partially developed land and approximately $1 billion of cash. Additionally, Millrose will acquire approximately $900 million of land assets as part of our Rausch Coleman acquisition, while Lennar will acquire the WIP inventory and the homebuilding operations. We believe that the ongoing relationship with Millrose can facilitate other transactions in an asset-light manner as well. Millrose will be positioned with adequate capital to operate its core business and will have a balance sheet that enables additional debt or equity as needed for strategic engagement or for growth. Lennar will distribute 80% of the stock of Millrose to Lennar shareholders. There will be 1 share of Millrose stock for every 2 shares of Lennar. Lennar will shortly thereafter dispose of the remaining 20%, which, by the way, is nonvoting in a distribution of Millrose shares or a potential exchange for Lennar shares, which would basically effectuate a cashless buyback of Lennar shares.

Lennar 將向 Millrose 貢獻約 52 億美元的未開發和部分開發土地以及約 10 億美元的現金。此外，作為 Rausch Coleman 收購的一部分，Millrose 將收購約 9 億美元的土地資產，而 Lennar 將收購 WIP 庫存和住宅建設業務。我們相信，與 Millrose 的持續關係也可以促進輕資產方式的其他交易。 Millrose 將擁有充足的資本來經營其核心業務，並將擁有一個資產負債表，可根據策略參與或成長的需求提供額外的債務或股權。 Lennar 將向 Lennar 股東分配 Millrose 80% 的股票。每 2 股 Lennar 股票即可換取 1 股 Millrose 股票。此後不久，Lennar 將處置剩餘的 20%，順便說一句，這些股份在 Millrose 股票分配或 Lennar 股票的潛在交換中沒有投票權，這基本上將實現 Lennar 股票的無現金回購。

Let me say this one more time as it might be a little confusing. The additional 20% interest which is nonvoting shares will be retained by Lennar for a very brief period of time and will quickly either be distributed or exchanged for Lennar shares to effectuate a cashless stock buyback. Needless to say, we are very excited to bring Millrose public in the very near future.

讓我再說一遍，因為這可能有點令人困惑。額外的 20% 權益（無投票權股份）將由 Lennar 保留很短的一段時間，並將很快分配或交換為 Lennar 股票，以實現無現金股票回購。不用說，我們非常高興能夠在不久的將來將 Millrose 上市。

Now let me turn briefly to the Rausch Coleman acquisition. As I have noted, the Milo spin will work hand in hand with our previously announced purchase of Rausch Coleman Homes, which is based in Fayetteville, Arkansas. Rausch Coleman is led by Jon Rau, a fourth-generation builder who built this company into the 21st largest homebuilder in the country. We look forward to welcoming Jon and his extraordinary team to the Lennar family as Jon will continue to work alongside Lennar as a partner and many of the Rausch Coleman associates will actually join the company.

現在讓我簡單談談勞施科爾曼的收購。正如我所指出的，Milo 的分拆將與我們先前宣布的收購位於阿肯色州費耶特維爾的 Rausch Coleman Homes 攜手合作。 Rausch Coleman 由第四代建築商 Jon Rau 領導，他將這家公司打造為美國第 21 大住宅建築商。我們期待喬恩和他非凡的團隊加入 Lennar 大家庭，因為喬恩將繼續作為合作夥伴與 Lennar 一起工作，而 Rausch Coleman 的許多同事實際上也將加入公司。

This acquisition fits squarely into our strategic growth plan of acquiring companies in concert with our Millrose property spin-off, where Lennar acquires the operating assets, including WIP and Millrose acquires the landholdings. This enables Lennar to acquire with a limited investment and producing a high return enabled by the Millrose platform.

此次收購完全符合我們與 Millrose 地產分拆相結合的收購公司策略成長計劃，其中 Lennar 收購營運資產，包括 WIP，Millrose 收購土地所有權。這使得 Lennar 能夠以有限的投資進行收購，並透過 Millrose 平台產生高回報。

Rausch Coleman builds in 12 primary markets across seven states and is the number one builder by market share in six of these markets. This acquisition will result in our expanding into new and desirable markets in Arkansas, Campus and Missouri, while growing our existing operations in Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma and Florida. Rausch Coleman is a very strong cultural fit for Lennar, sharing a common operational philosophy focused on building on the building of reasonably priced homes with strong basic home designs. Like Lennar, Rausch Coleman offers few optional changes in proven markets and has an overall commitment to delivering high-quality homes within budget and on schedule.

Rausch Coleman 在 7 個州的 12 個主要市場進行建設，並且在其中 6 個市場中按市場份額排名第一。此次收購將使我們擴展到阿肯色州、坎普斯和密蘇裡州的新的理想市場，同時擴大我們在德克薩斯州、阿拉巴馬州、俄克拉荷馬州和佛羅裡達州的現有業務。 Rausch Coleman 與 Lennar 有著強大的文化契合度，他們有著共同的營運理念，專注於建造價格合理且具有強大基本家居設計的住宅。與 Lennar 一樣，Rausch Coleman 在成熟市場中提供了很少的可選變化，並全面致力於在預算範圍內按時交付高品質住宅。

We expect that the acquisition will add approximately 100 communities, 4,000 deliveries and 4,000 new orders in 2025, assuming that this acquisition closes by the end of the first quarter. after the 2025 activity, there will be more than 37,000 homesites controlled through Millrose for Lennar's operations in 2026 and beyond. The 2025 activity is concentrated 30% in markets where Lennar has existing operations and 70% in new markets where Lennar will take advantage of Rausch Coleman's exceptional reputation and well-run operations as we integrate into one Lennar. We are very excited about the Rausch Coleman addition to the Lennar footprint.

假設此次收購在第一季末完成，我們預計此次收購將在 2025 年增加約 100 個社區、4,000 個交付量和 4,000 個新訂單。 2025 年活動結束後，Lennar 在 2026 年及以後的營運中將透過 Millrose 控制超過 37,000 個基地。 2025 年的活動將 30% 集中在 Lennar 現有業務的市場，70% 集中在新市場，當我們整合到一個 Lennar 中時，Lennar 將利用 Rausch Coleman 的卓越聲譽和良好營運的營運優勢。我們對 Rausch Coleman 加入 Lennar 足跡感到非常興奮。

So we've covered a lot. And in conclusion, let me say that while this has been a difficult quarter and year-end for Lennar, while the short-term road ahead might look a little choppy, we are very optimistic about the longer-term road ahead. In spite of bumps in the road, this is an exciting time for Lennar. At Lennar, we are upgrading the financial and operating platform as we drive production and sales. We have continued to drive production to meet the housing shortage that we know persist across our markets.

所以我們已經涵蓋了很多內容。最後，我要說的是，雖然對 Lennar 來說這是一個艱難的季度和年終，雖然未來的短期道路可能看起來有點崎嶇，但我們對未來的長期道路非常樂觀。儘管道路坎坷，但這對 Lennar 來說是一個激動人心的時刻。在 Lennar，我們正在升級財務和營運平台，同時推動生產和銷售。我們繼續推動生產，以滿足市場上持續存在的住房短缺問題。

With that said, as interest rates normalize, we believe that pent-up demand will be activated and margin will recover, and we are well prepared with a strong and growing national footprint growing community count and growing volume. Perhaps most importantly, our strong balance sheet and even stronger land banking relations afford us flexibility and opportunity to consider and execute upon thoughtful growth for our future. In that regard, we will focus on our manufacturing model and continue to use our land partnerships to grow with the focus on high returns on capital and equity. We will also continue to focus on our pure-play business model and reduce exposure to noncore assets. We will continue to drive just-in-time home site delivery and an asset-light balance sheet.

話雖如此，隨著利率正常化，我們相信被壓抑的需求將被激活，利潤率將恢復，並且我們已做好充分準備，擁有強大且不斷增長的全國足跡，不斷增加社區數量和數量。也許最重要的是，我們強大的資產負債表和更強大的土地儲備關係為我們提供了靈活性和機會來考慮和執行對未來深思熟慮的成長。在這方面，我們將專注於我們的製造模式，並繼續利用我們的土地合作夥伴關係來實現成長，並專注於資本和股權的高回報。我們也將繼續專注於我們的純業務模式，並減少非核心資產的曝險。我們將繼續推動準時上門交付和輕資產資產負債表。

And as we complete our asset-light transformation, we will continue to generate strong cash flow and return capital to our shareholders through dividends and stock buyback while we also pursue strategic growth. For now, we are guiding to 17,000 to 17,500 closings in the first quarter of '25 with a margin of 19% to 19.25%. We -- and we expect to deliver approximately 86,000 to 88,000 home in 2025. We also expect to continue to repurchase stock in 2025, and we will determine the amount as we watch the evolution of our Millrose spin, and our land light operating model perform. We look forward to 2025. And for that, I want to thank the extraordinary associates of Lennar for their tremendous focus, effort and talent.

隨著我們完成輕資產轉型，我們將繼續產生強勁的現金流，並透過股利和股票回購向股東返還資本，同時追求策略成長。目前，我們預計 2025 年第一季成交量為 17,000 至 17,500 套，利潤率為 19% 至 19.25%。我們預計在 2025 年交付約 86,000 至 88,000 套房屋。我們期待 2025 年。

And with that, let me turn it over to Jon.

接下來，讓我把它交給喬恩。

Thanks, Stuart, and good morning, everyone. As you just heard, our operational teams at Lennar continue to focus on executing our operating strategy to become consistent high-volume homebuilding manufacturer using margin as a shock absorber. I will discuss our fourth quarter performance on sales pace, cost reduction cycle time reduction and asset light land position. Our focus begins with knowing the sales pace needed to match our production pace, while our production both start pace and cycles time performed as expected, as Stuart noted expected affordability to ease, and we priced accordingly. However, mortgage rates declined instead of lowering, and this pricing led to our (inaudible) the designed sales pace for the first part of the quarter.

謝謝斯圖爾特，大家早安。正如您剛才所聽到的，我們 Lennar 的營運團隊將繼續專注於執行我們的營運策略，以利潤作為減震器，成為始終如一的大批量住宅建築製造商。我將討論我們第四季的銷售速度、成本降低週期時間縮短和輕資產土地狀況的表現。我們的重點首先是了解與我們的生產節奏相匹配所需的銷售節奏，而我們的生產開始節奏和周期時間均按預期進行，正如斯圖爾特指出的預期負擔能力的放鬆，我們相應地定價。然而，抵押貸款利率非但沒有下降，反而下降了，這種定價導致了我們（聽不清楚）本季第一部分的設計銷售速度。

As we saw that mortgage rates remained higher and the consumer needed more help with affordability, we adjusted our pricing to meet the market where it was. As we made these adjustments, we then continuously measured results against the desired pace. And if we were still not achieving pays, we adjusted further. These incentives primarily were in the form of mortgage rate buydowns and for some buyers, we use closing cost or price reductions to address their specific needs. In addition to adjusting pricing, our divisions engaged daily with Lennar machine to evaluate if we have the volume of leads and appointments needed and if not we adjusted the digital marketing plan.

當我們看到抵押貸款利率仍然較高且消費者在負擔能力方面需要更多幫助時，我們調整了定價以滿足市場需求。當我們進行這些調整時，我們會根據所需的速度不斷衡量結果。如果我們仍然沒有實現支付，我們會進一步調整。這些激勵措施主要採取抵押貸款利率下調的形式，對於一些買家，我們使用成交成本或降價來滿足他們的特定需求。除了調整定價之外，我們的部門每天都與 Lennar 機器合作，評估我們是否擁有所需的潛在客戶和預約量，如果沒有，我們就會調整數位行銷計劃。

The sales shortfall led to our overall fourth quarter sales pace of 4.2 homes per community per month being lower than our start pace of 4.6. While sales were slower for the first part of the quarter, we adjusted, as I noted, resulting in our November pace of 4.6 sales per community per month that enabled us to end the quarter with an average of about two unsold completed homes per community. To be clear, it wasn't that the market improved in November, it was our adjusting incentives to where the market was at improved pace.

銷售不足導致我們在第四季度每個社區每月 4.2 套房屋的整體銷售速度低於我們開始時的 4.6 套。雖然本季上半年的銷售速度較慢，但正如我所指出的，我們進行了調整，導致11 月份每個社區每月的銷售量達到4.6 套，這使我們能夠在本季度結束時每個社區平均約有兩棟未售出的已完工房屋。需要明確的是，這並不是說 11 月市場有所改善，而是我們根據市場改善的速度調整了激勵措施。

Contrasted with a more challenging sales environment, our construction cost and cycle time continue to benefit throughout the fourth quarter from our focus on even flow production along with our high volume. This focus on a manufacturing approach, along with the maximized efficiencies of our core product strategy will allow us to continue to improve cost and cycle time into 2025. The fourth quarter, our construction costs were consistent with Q3 and decreased on a year-over-year basis by 2%. Accomplishing a 2% cost reduction during an inflationary environment consisting of higher labor and material cost inputs for the supply chain over the past year demonstrate the effectiveness of our strategy and affirms the benefits of our builder of choice approach. This manufacturing strategy also resulted in continued reduction in cycle time.

與更具挑戰性的銷售環境相比，我們的建設成本和週期時間在整個第四季度繼續受益於我們對均勻流生產和高產量的關注。這種對製造方法的關注，加上我們核心產品策略的效率最大化，將使我們能夠在2025 年之前繼續改善成本和週期時間。下降。在通貨膨脹環境下，過去一年供應鏈的勞動力和材料成本投入增加，實現了 2% 的成本降低，這證明了我們策略的有效性，並肯定了我們選擇的建造商方法的好處。這種製造策略也導致周期時間持續縮短。

Our fourth quarter cycle time decreased on average by two days sequentially from Q3, down to 138 calendar days on average for single-family detached homes. This is a 23-day or 14% decrease year-over-year and a material contributor to our inventory turn improvement. I also want to comment on the potential as each has the potential of affecting cost and cycle time. With respect to tariffs, we made a major shift starting eight years ago to move away from Chinese and other Asian manufacturing to where today, the majority of what we purchase from our supply chain is from US-based manufacturers. There remains some parts made in China; primarily electronic components used in the manufacturing of products that are assembled here. These components become subject to tariffs; we estimate the potential cost impact to be in the range of $5,000 to $7,000 per (inaudible). With respect to lumber, we've already shifted to more usage of domestically grown timber.

我們第四季的周期時間比第三季平均減少了兩天，單戶獨立住宅的平均週期時間減少至 138 個日曆天。這比去年同期減少了 23 天，即 14%，對我們的庫存週轉率改善做出了重大貢獻。我還想評論一下潛力，因為每種因素都有可能影響成本和週期時間。在關稅方面，我們從八年前開始做出了重大轉變，從中國和其他亞洲製造業轉移到今天，我們從供應鏈購買的大部分產品都來自美國製造商。仍有一些零件是中國製造的；主要是用於製造在這裡組裝的產品的電子元件。這些組件需繳納關稅；我們估計潛在的成本影響在 5,000 美元到 7,000 美元之間（聽不清楚）。在木材方面，我們已經轉向更多地使用國內種植的木材。

On the issue of immigration, the potential impact of (inaudible) immigration policies is much more difficult to assess. First, we do not know what policies will be implemented. Additionally, there is no reliable information on what percentage of the workforce for local labor trades or for our manufacturers may be subject to new regulation and enforcement. What we do know, just likely the supply chain disruptions during the pandemic, is that we will be able to work with our local trades and national manufacturers to find the most effective solutions to minimize the impact from disruptions, we believe we'll be able to do the same again.

在移民議題上，（聽不清楚）移民政策的潛在影響更難以評估。首先，我們不知道將會實施什麼政策。此外，沒有可靠資訊表明當地勞工行業或我們的製造商的勞動力比例可能受到新法規和執法的約束。我們所知道的是，大流行期間的供應鏈可能會中斷，我們將能夠與當地貿易和國家製造商合作，找到最有效的解決方案，以盡量減少中斷的影響，我們相信我們能夠再次做同樣的事情。

In the fourth quarter to effectively work with our strategic land developers -- sorry, in the fourth quarter, we continue to effectively work with our strategic land developers and land bank partners to purchase land on our behalf and then deliver just-in-time finished homesites to our homebuilding machine. Diane will give the detail on how our land bank purchases in the quarter break out, but most of the purchases are just-in-time takedowns to match our start pace on a community-by-community basis.

第四季度與我們的戰略土地開發商有效合作——抱歉，第四季度我們繼續與我們的戰略土地開發商和土地銀行合作夥伴有效合作，代我們購買土地，然後及時交付完工的土地我們的住宅建築機器的家。黛安將詳細介紹我們在本季的土地儲備購買情況，但大多數購買都是及時拆除的，以符合我們在各個社區的啟動速度。

During the quarter, land banks acquired on our behalf of about 17,000 home sites for about $1.5 billion in land acquisition and a commitment of about $640 million in land development. With the focus on being asset-light, our supply of owned homesites decreased to 1.1 years, down from 1.4 years and controlled homesites percentage increased to 82% from 76% year-over-year. These improvements in the execution of our operating strategies enabled reduced cycle time and less land owned, resulting in improved inventory turn, which now stands at 1.6% versus 1.5% last year, a 7% increase.

本季度，土地銀行代表我們以約 15 億美元的土地收購價格和約 6.4 億美元的土地開發承諾收購了約 17,000 個住宅用地。由於注重輕資產，我們的自有宅基地供應從 1.4 年減少至 1.1 年，受控宅基地比例從 76% 年增至 82%。我們營運策略執行的這些改進縮短了週期時間並減少了擁有的土地，從而改善了庫存週轉率，庫存週轉率目前為 1.6%，與去年的 1.5% 相比，增加了 7%。

Fourth quarter was a challenged operating environment as mortgage rates moved higher, and home buyers needed more help to achieve a monthly payment they can afford. We will continue with our strategy of pricing to market as we navigate whichever direction of the rates move in 2025. We will lean into the (inaudible) sales machine and stay focused on even flow high-volume manufacturing production, and with Millrose in place, execute even better on our asset-light land strategy. I also want to acknowledge and thank our extraordinary associates for their hard work, focus and execution.

第四季的經營環境充滿挑戰，因為抵押貸款利率走高，購屋者需要更多幫助才能實現他們負擔得起的每月付款。無論 2025 年費率朝哪個方向變化，我們都將繼續實行市場定價策略。地執行我們的輕資產土地策略。我還要感謝我們傑出的員工的辛勤工作、專注和執行力。

And now I'll turn it over to Diane.

現在我將把它交給黛安。

Thank you, Jon, and good morning, everyone. So Stuart and Jon have provided a great deal of color regarding our operating performance. So therefore, I'm going to spend a few minutes summarizing the balance sheet highlights and then provide estimates for the first quarter. So turning to the balance sheet.

謝謝你，喬恩，大家早安。 Stuart 和 Jon 為我們的營運績效提供了大量的資訊。因此，我將花幾分鐘總結資產負債表的重點，然後提供第一季的估計。所以轉向資產負債表。

Once again, as you've heard, we adhere to our volume-based strategy of maximizing returns by turning inventory at the appropriate market margin. The result of these actions was that we drove cash flow and ended the year with $4.7 billion of cash and no borrowings on our $2.9 billion revolving credit facility. This provided total liquidity of approximately $7.6 billion. As a result of our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency and reducing our capital investments, we once again continue to migrate towards our goal of becoming land light. At year-end, our years owned was 1.1 years, and our homesites controlled was 82%. And our lowest years owned and highest control percentage in our history.

正如您所聽說的，我們再次堅持基於數量的策略，透過以適當的市場利潤週轉庫存來最大化回報。這些行動的結果是我們推動了現金流，並在年底獲得了 47 億美元的現金，而我們的 29 億美元循環信貸額度沒有借款。這提供了約 76 億美元的總流動性。由於我們持續專注於資產負債表效率並減少資本投資，我們再次繼續朝著成為輕土地的目標邁進。截至年底，我們的擁有年資為1.1年，我們的宅基地控制率為82%。我們擁有歷史上最低的年份和最高的控制率。

We ended the year owning 85,000 home sites and controlling 394,000 homesites for a total of 479,000 on sites. We believe this portfolio provides us with a strong competitive position to continue to grow market share in a capital-efficient way. We spent $2.1 billion on land purchases this quarter. However, almost 80% were finished home sites where vertical construction will soon begin. This is consistent with our manufacturing model of buying land on a just-in-time basis.

截至年底，我們擁有 85,000 個住宅站點並控制 394,000 個住宅站點，總計 479,000 個住宅站點。我們相信，該投資組合為我們提供了強大的競爭地位，能夠以資本高效的方式繼續擴大市場份額。本季我們在土地購買上花費了 21 億美元。然而，近 80% 的住宅用地已完工，垂直施工即將開始。這與我們及時購買土地的製造模式是一致的。

Of the homes closed during the quarter, approximately 66% were from third-party land structures where we purchased the home site on a finished basis. And finally, our inventory turn was 1.6 times, up from 1.5 times last year, and our return on inventory was 29.2%. As we move forward with the Millrose spin-off and thus, continue to reduce our ownership of land and purchase homesites on a just-in-time basis. Our earnings should more consistently approximate cash flow and over time, it would be our goal to align capital return to shareholders more closely with this cash flow. During the quarter, and consistent with our production focus, we started about 18,400 homes and ended the quarter with 35,600 homes in inventory. This inventory number includes approximately 2,900 homes that were completed, unsold which is about two homes per community and within our historical range.

在本季關閉的房屋中，約 66% 來自第三方土地結構，我們在這些房屋中購買了成品房屋。最後，我們的庫存週轉率為 1.6 倍，高於去年的 1.5 倍，庫存回報率為 29.2%。隨著我們推進米爾羅斯分拆，我們將繼續減少我們的土地所有權並及時購買宅基地。我們的收益應該更一致地接近現金流，隨著時間的推移，我們的目標是使股東的資本回報與現金流更加緊密地結合。在本季度，與我們的生產重點一致，我們開工了約 18,400 套房屋，本季末庫存房屋為 35,600 套。此庫存數量包括約 2,900 套已完工但未售出的房屋，每個社區大約有兩套房屋，且在我們的歷史範圍內。

And then turning to our debt position, we had no redemptions or repurchases of senior notes this quarter. However, for the 2024 year, we repaid $554 million of notes. And since 2018, we have repaid or repurchased over $7 billion of notes with an interest rate savings of almost $400 million. These actions for our homebuilding debt to total capital ratio down to 7.5% at year-end, our lowest ever. and our next debt maturity is not until May of 2025. Consistent with our commitment to increase shareholder returns, as Stuart noted, we repurchased $3 million of our outstanding shares for $521 million. This brought the total for the year to 13.6 million shares totaling $2.1 billion. Additionally, we paid total cash dividends this quarter of $135 million and a total of approximately $550 million for the year.

然後轉向我們的債務狀況，本季我們沒有贖回或回購優先票據。然而，在 2024 年，我們償還了 5.54 億美元的票據。自 2018 年以來，我們已償還或回購了超過 70 億美元的票據，節省了近 4 億美元的利率。這些行動使我們的房屋建築債務佔總資本的比率在年底降至 7.5%，為有史以來的最低水準。我們的下一次債務到期要到 2025 年 5 月。這使得全年股票總數達到 1,360 萬股，總價值 21 億美元。此外，我們本季支付的現金股利總額為 1.35 億美元，全年支付的現金股利總額約為 5.5 億美元。

So in the aggregate for fiscal 2024 we returned about $3.3 billion of equity and debt holders. Our stockholders' equity increased to almost $28 billion, and our book value per share increased to $104. In summary, the strength of our balance sheet, strong liquidity and low leverage provides us with significant confidence in financial flexibility as we move into 2025. So with that brief overview, I'd like to turn to Q1 and provide some guidance estimates. Note that these estimates do not include the impact of the acquisition of Rausch Coleman or Millrose spin-off. So starting with new orders. We expect Q1 new orders to be in the range of 17,500 to 18,000 homes as we match sales pace with production. We anticipate our Q1 deliveries to be in the range of 17,000 to 17,500 homes with a continued focus on turning inventory into cash.

因此，2024 財年我們總共向股票和債務持有人返還了約 33 億美元。我們的股東權益增加到近 280 億美元，每股帳面價值增加到 104 美元。總而言之，我們的資產負債表實力、強勁的流動性和低槓桿率使我們在進入2025 年時對財務靈活性充滿信心。 。請注意，這些估計不包括收購 Rausch Coleman 或 Millrose 分拆的影響。所以從新訂單開始。我們預計第一季新訂單將在 17,500 至 18,000 套房屋之間，因為我們將銷售速度與生產相匹配。我們預計第一季的交付量將在 17,000 至 17,500 套房屋之間，並繼續致力於將庫存轉化為現金。

Our Q1 average sales price on those deliveries should be about $410,000 to $415,000 as we continue to price to market to meet affordability. We expect our gross margins to be between 19% and 19.25%. So as Stuart has alluded to, to provide additional context, the gross margin in our backlog expected to close in the first quarter is about 20%. What we do not have visibility into at this point is the gross margin on homes we expect to both sell and close in the first quarter, which we anticipate will be roughly 50% of the closing. As we sit here in mid-December with the limited visibility we are going to have into the spring selling season, we anticipate these closings will have a lower gross margin than our backlog. However, if market conditions improve, we will benefit from this upside. Additionally, recall that our Q1 margins are always negatively impacted by the current period expensing of field costs since revenues in Q1 are the lowest of the year. Additionally, as historically is the case, the first quarter will be the low point for margins during 2025.

我們第一季交付的平均銷售價格應約為 410,000 美元至 415,000 美元，因為我們將繼續根據市場定價以滿足承受能力。我們預計毛利率在 19% 至 19.25% 之間。正如斯圖爾特所提到的，為了提供更多背景信息，預計第一季完成的積壓訂單的毛利率約為 20%。目前我們還無法了解預計第一季銷售和成交房屋的毛利率，我們預計該毛利率約為成交金額的 50%。由於我們在 12 月中旬坐在這裡，春季銷售季節的能見度有限，我們預計這些成交的毛利率將低於我們積壓的毛利率。然而，如果市場狀況改善，我們將從這一上升趨勢中受益。此外，請記住，我們第一季的利潤率總是受到當期現場成本費用的負面影響，因為第一季的收入是一年中最低的。此外，與歷史情況一樣，第一季將是 2025 年利潤率的最低點。

Our SG&A percentage should be in the range of 8.7% to 8.8% as we anticipate increased costs to maintain sales activity. For the combined homebuilding joint venture land sales and other categories, we expect to be about breakeven. We anticipate our financial services earnings to be approximately $100 million to $110 million. For our multifamily business, we expect a loss of about $10 million.

我們的 SG&A 百分比應在 8.7% 至 8.8% 範圍內，因為我們預計維持銷售活動的成本會增加。對於聯合住宅建築合資土地銷售和其他類別，我們預計將達到損益兩平。我們預計我們的金融服務收入約為 1 億至 1.1 億美元。對於我們的多戶型企業，我們預計損失約 1000 萬美元。

Turning to Lennar Other, we expect a loss of about $20 million However, remember that this excludes the impact of any potential mark-to-market adjustments to our public technology investments. Our Q1 corporate G&A should be about 2.6% of total revenues, and our charitable foundation contribution will be based on $1,000 per home delivery. We expect our Q1 tax rate to be approximately 24.5% and the weighted average share count should be approximately 266 million shares. So on a consolidated basis, these estimates should produce an EPS range of approximately $1.60 to $1.80 per share for the quarter. And since -- as we turn to 2025, as we noted, since market conditions are uncertain, we are only providing delivery guidance, we're targeting to deliver between 86,000 and 88,000 homes for the full year of 2025, including the Rausch Coleman acquisition.

至於 Lennar Other，我們預計損失約 2000 萬美元。我們第一季的企業管理費用應佔總收入的 2.6% 左右，我們的慈善基金會捐款將基於每次送貨上門 1,000 美元。我們預計第一季稅率約為 24.5%，加權平均股數約為 2.66 億股。因此，在綜合基礎上，這些估計值應產生本季每股收益約 1.60 至 1.80 美元的範圍。正如我們所指出的，當我們轉向 2025 年時，由於市場狀況不確定，我們僅提供交付指導，我們的目標是在 2025 年全年交付 86,000 至 88,000 套房屋，包括收購 Rausch Coleman 。

With that, let me turn it over to the operator.

這樣，我就把它交給接線生了。

(Operator Instructions) Alan Ratner, Zelman & Associates.

（操作員說明）Alan Ratner，Zelman & Associates。

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for all the detail, definitely a lot going on right now. So I appreciate that. Stuart, I guess I'd love to just hear your thoughts on kind of the consumer and the drivers that impacted the demand during the quarter. Obviously, rates moved in the wrong direction. And I think it certainly makes sense compared to where you guys were back in September, why things were a bit weaker than expected. But if we look at the absolute mortgage rate in the high 6s, maybe hitting 7% in the quarter, it's not too dissimilar to what you were selling at in spring of '24 and a year ago. Yet, it sounds like things were fairly meaningfully weaker from just an overall demand perspective.

嘿，夥計們。早安.感謝您提供所有詳細信息，現在肯定發生了很多事情。所以我很欣賞這一點。斯圖爾特，我想我很想聽聽您對本季影響需求的消費者和驅動因素的看法。顯然，利率走向了錯誤的方向。我認為與你們九月的情況相比，這當然是有道理的，為什麼事情比預期的要弱一些。但如果我們看看絕對抵押貸款利率在 6 左右，本季可能達到 7%，這與 24 年春季和一年前的銷售價格並沒有太大不同。然而，僅從整體需求的角度來看，情況似乎明顯疲軟。

So what do you attribute that to? Is it seasonality? Is it the supply-demand picture, given how many specs have been put on the ground because it doesn't feel like things have changed that drastically in the economy to warrant a much softer picture at that type of rate environment.

那麼你將其歸因於什麼呢？是季節性的嗎？這是供需情況嗎？

Alan, I think it's a combination of factors. I think that the consumer and particularly at the entry level. But even as you move up into the move-up level, acquiring a down payment in today's inflated environment. And what I mean by that is prices have gone up and the rate of inflation has come down, but that doesn't mean prices have come down. It's harder to accumulate a down payment, and it's harder to qualify for a mortgage.

艾倫，我認為這是多種因素綜合作用的結果。我認為消費者，尤其是入門消費者。但即使您升級到升級級別，也要在當今通貨膨脹的環境中獲得首付。我的意思是價格上漲，通貨膨脹率下降，但這並不意味著價格下降。累積首付更加困難，獲得抵押貸款的資格也更加困難。

I think that there's a combination of interest rates moving up and moving down and moving up, moving down. It's created a little bit of a hesitancy and people actually pulling the trigger. You have some seasonality sprinkled in here. There are a number of factors that are going on, and it's just become a more difficult environment to get the buyer to actually make the decision to purchase. As we came to the end of our third quarter where interest rates were trending down, we didn't see the same responsiveness to rates coming down that we had seen in prior movements.

我認為利率上升、下降、上升、下降是同時存在的。它造成了一點猶豫，但人們實際上扣動了扳機。這裡有一些季節性的東西。有很多因素正在發生，這使得買家真正做出購買決定變得更加困難。當我們進入第三季末時，利率呈下降趨勢，我們沒有看到與先前的走勢相同的對利率下降的反應。

And then moving from there into the fourth quarter, as interest rates first picked down and then moved up in the wake of the 50 basis point Fed reduction. The consumer kind of -- it just felt like they felt a little surprised by that, and it's just been more sidelined. So I'd just say it's a combination of things that we have felt at the door at our welcome Home Centers. And in particular, as rates started migrating up during the fourth quarter, it became harder and harder to navigate the waters of incentives and rate buydown and purchase price reductions, all of the components that we have as tools, navigating those waters became a little trickier, and it took a little bit more to get the consumer over the fence.

然後從那時開始進入第四季度，利率先是下降，然後在聯準會降息 50 個基點後上升。消費者只是覺得他們對此感到有點驚訝，而且只是更加邊緣化。所以我只想說，這是我們在受歡迎的家庭中心門口感受到的綜合因素。特別是，隨著第四季度利率開始上升，在激勵措施、利率購買和購買價格降低的水域中航行變得越來越困難，我們作為工具的所有組成部分，在這些水域中航行都變得有點棘手，並且需要更多一點才能讓消費者跨越柵欄。

Got it. I appreciate the additional color there. And then second, just kind of on your overall pace versus price strategy. You've always kind of articulated margin and price being the lever to achieve the volume targets.

知道了。我很欣賞那裡的額外顏色。其次，就是你的整體節奏與價格策略。你總是將明確的利潤和價格作為實現銷售目標的槓桿。

I'm just curious, as you think about '25 and the targets you put out there for closings growth, not too dissimilar from where you were three months ago, even though the market seems to have shifted a bit lower. What are you thinking on the sensitivity there now that margins are kind of below, at least for the time being, below what you consider to be normalized? Is there a lower bound on margin or an upper bound on incentives that you're willing to go to achieve the volume targets that you've put out there right now?

我只是很好奇，當你想到 25 年以及你為成交量成長設定的目標時，與三個月前的情況並沒有太大不同，儘管市場似乎有所下降。現在利潤率低於（至少暫時低於）你認為正常化的水平，你對此有何看法？為了實現您目前設定的銷售目標，您願意採取的利潤率下限或激勵措施是否有上限？

We have conviction here that steady-state volume will help us rationalize costs, both at the land level and at the hard cost sticks and bricks level as well as overhead over time. And so the answer is we're going to adjust to market. We're going to maintain volume. Of course, there can be something that is so erratic that we might change our strategy because it's outside the boundaries. But as it relates to the normalization of the market, the adjustment to a new normal in interest rates or as it relates to affordability issues, just straight affordability, we're going to adjust to market conditions and maintain volume, and we're going to use that as a leverage point to rationalize both land and production costs.

我們堅信，穩態產量將幫助我們合理化成本，無論是在土地層面、在硬成本棒和磚層面，還是在一段時間內的管理費用。所以答案是我們將根據市場進行調整。我們將維持成交量。當然，可能會有一些非常不穩定的事情，我們可能會因為它超出了界限而改變我們的策略。但由於它涉及市場正常化、利率新常態的調整，或涉及負擔能力問題，直接的負擔能力，我們將根據市場狀況進行調整併維持交易量，我們將以此作為槓桿點來合理化土地和生產成本。

Understood. Thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Happy new year.

明白了。多謝。欣賞它。新年快樂。

Michael Rehaut, JPMorgan.

麥可雷豪特，摩根大通。

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First -- a lot of questions, I'm sure that we're going to hear about Millrose shortly. But I'd love to just focus on the core business, which I think is really the focus on most of the clients that we speak to investors that you're speaking with today.

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。首先，有很多問題，我相信我們很快就會聽到有關米爾羅斯的消息。但我只想專注於核心業務，我認為這確實是我們今天與投資者交談的大多數客戶的重點。

Stuart, you mentioned a couple of times that you're positioning the company from -- in terms of keeping your finished spec kind of in line with historicals kind of continuing to move volume Trying to think about what a normalized gross margin might mean over the next 12, 24 months as for Lennar, let's say, once we get through this more bumpy period.

斯圖爾特，你多次提到你對公司的定位是——保持你的最終規格與歷史保持一致，繼續提高銷量，試圖思考標準化毛利率在未來一段時間內可能意味著什麼。下來的12、24 個月，我們可以說，一旦我們度過了這個更坎坷的時期。

Mike, I think it's hard to look out ahead, especially in what I would consider to be turbulent times. And maybe turbulence is too strong a word, but interest rates are moving around. There's a lot of change injected in the system overall. What exactly is normalized I don't know what that number is. It's certainly north of where we are now. I think that the market is adjusting to a new normal. There is underlying everything a supply shortage and demand is building in the background just by population and household formation.

麥克，我認為很難展望未來，尤其是在我認為動盪的時期。也許「動盪」這個詞太重了，但利率正在波動。整個系統注入了許多變化。到底什麼是標準化的我不知道這個數字是多少。它肯定在我們現在所在位置的北部。我認為市場正在適應新常態。一切的根本原因是供應短缺，而需求則是在人口和家庭形成的背景下形成的。

So what is a normalized margin. It's going to be higher than where we are right now. And it's going to climb as demand is activated by market forces and that means enabled by interest rates enabled by stabilized pricing, either at the grocery store or the gas pump or gas prices coming down. It's all of these things are going to work together. What we've focused on is we are going to price to market conditions, and that means that the market ebbs and flows, our margin will move up and down along with it. And we know that market conditions right now are difficult. There will be easier times ahead where margin will migrate back up and we'll be multiplying by a larger volume number.

那什麼是標準化邊際呢？它會比我們現在的水平更高。隨著市場力量激活需求，這意味著穩定的定價所帶來的利率（無論是在雜貨店還是在加油站或汽油價格下降），它將會攀升。所有這些事情都會一起發揮作用。我們關注的是我們將根據市場條件定價，這意味著市場的漲落，我們的利潤率將隨之上下波動。我們知道目前的市場狀況很困難。未來將會有更輕鬆的時期，保證金將回升，我們將乘以更大的數量。

Mike, I would just add, as you heard from all of us is that our strategy really enables our approach to the supply chain to continue to find efficiencies and reduce costs there that will help the margin equation.

麥克，我想補充一點，正如您從我們所有人那裡聽到的那樣，我們的策略確實使我們的供應鏈方法能夠繼續提高效率並降低成本，這將有助於利潤率方程式。

I appreciate that, both Stuart and Jon. I guess second question, I wanted to shift towards the top line. Last quarter, and I think you've reiterated this a few times, perhaps now you intend to grow volumes about [20%] annually and it's what you stated last quarter for fiscal '25 and beyond. Your guidance now is 8% to 10% that does though include the contribution of Rausch Coleman, which I think you said was about a 5% contribution to growth, 4,000 units if you close in the first quarter. So obviously implies organic growth kind of in that 3% to 5% range.

我很欣賞史都華和喬恩。我想第二個問題，我想轉向頂線。上個季度，我認為您已經重申了幾次，也許現在您打算每年增加約 [20%] 的銷量，這就是您上個季度所說的 25 財年及以後的情況。您現在的指導是 8% 到 10%，其中包括 Rausch Coleman 的貢獻，我認為您所說的對增長的貢獻約為 5%，如果您在第一季度關閉，則為 4,000 台。因此，顯然意味著有機增長在 3% 到 5% 的範圍內。

I'm just wondering, going forward, you had -- the only other competitor of yours of similar volume size. D.R. Horton talk about flat to up slight volume growth in fiscal '25. And a big part of that just due to the challenges of getting communities online. How should we think about organic growth from Lennar going forward? Is that still do you kind of view that 10% goal that you stated as an all-in number? Is there variability there? Is the organic growth perhaps a little bit less because it certainly seems like fiscal '25 might be below a normal or aspire to growth year, at least on an organic basis for some builders.

我只是想知道，展望未來，您擁有 - 與您類似的體積大小的唯一其他競爭對手。博士霍頓談到 25 財年銷量小幅成長。其中很大一部分原因是社群網路化面臨的挑戰。我們應該如何看待 Lennar 未來的有機成長？您仍然認為您所說的 10% 目標是一個總目標嗎？那裡有變化嗎？有機成長是否可能會有點少，因為看起來 25 財年肯定會低於正常或渴望成長的年份，至少對一些建築商來說是有機成長的。

Mike, the line between organic and inorganic has become a little bit more blurry. And the reason is that as we grow, we're adding communities. Sometimes we're adding communities through the acquisition of smaller builders who have decided that an affiliation or collaboration with us as a better avenue forward. And sometimes that's really just the acquisition of additional communities instead of buying one, we're buying four. And this is something that has got ongoing on a regular basis in different markets at different rates. So it's kind of hard to decipher where the line between organic and inorganic is.

麥克，有機和無機之間的界線變得有點模糊了。原因是，隨著我們的成長，我們正在增加社區。有時，我們會透過收購較小的建築商來增加社區，這些建築商認為與我們建立聯繫或合作是更好的前進途徑。有時，這實際上只是收購更多社區，而不是購買一個，而是購買四個。這是不同市場以不同速度定期進行的事情。所以很難弄清楚有機和無機之間的界線在哪裡。

So we're looking at basically that kind of a growth rate, a combination between the two. With Rausch Coleman, we have a combination of some markets where we're already embedded where we are adding community count to an already existing rather robust operating system or platform. And we have other markets we're growing de novo into new markets working with the tremendous reputation that Rausch Coleman has and the high-quality people that come along with the acquisition. So even with Rausch Coleman, the line between organic and inorganic really begs the question of can we separate it out and how do we look at it. We're really looking at both organic and inorganic as being tied together with our growth strategy.

因此，我們基本上關注的是兩者之間的成長率。透過 Rausch Coleman，我們結合了一些我們已經嵌入的市場，我們正在將社群數量添加到已經存在的相當強大的作業系統或平台中。我們還有其他市場，我們正在與 Rausch Coleman 擁有的巨大聲譽以及收購帶來的高素質人才合作，從頭進入新市場。因此，即使勞施·科爾曼（Rausch Coleman）認為，有機和無機之間的界限確實引出了一個問題：我們能否將其分開以及我們如何看待它。我們確實將有機和無機視為與我們的成長策略連結在一起的。

Yes, Mike, I think I would just add that as you're seeing with Rausch Coleman. While we are expanding into new markets, we're also growing market share in existing markets, and that's really the goal because the greater we grow market share, the more benefits we really achieved from that market. And I think what's really important to also remember is the way that we're structuring these, we'll call them, the inorganic growth. And I think that's a really big differentiator. We're just buying with turning it quickly, adding profitability to the bottom line and at a high return.

是的，麥克，我想我只想補充一點，就像你在勞施·科爾曼身上看到的那樣。在我們拓展新市場的同時，我們也在增加現有市場的市場份額，這確實是我們的目標，因為我們的市場份額成長得越大，我們從該市場中真正獲得的利益就越多。我認為真正重要的是要記住我們建構這些的方式，我們稱之為無機成長。我認為這是一個非常大的差異化因素。我們只是快速買入，增加利潤並獲得高回報。

So I think you have to think about sort of that M&A activity, if you will, in a very different light. It used to be very negative. It came with a lot of goodwill and things like that. But this is a different way to think about M&A. And I think it is more akin to organic growth than you might be thinking about historically.

所以我認為如果你願意的話，你必須以一個非常不同的角度來考慮某種併購活動。它曾經是非常消極的。它伴隨著很多善意和類似的事情。但這是思考併購的不同方式。我認為這比你歷史上想像的更類似於有機成長。

Yes. I appreciate that, Diane. And just to clarify, for the first quarter gross margins, that does not then as a result, include any purchase accounting impact for Rausch Coleman. I guess not expect it to be in the first quarter, but let's say, in the second quarter, third quarter, is there any purchase accounting impact expected?

是的。我很感激，黛安。需要澄清的是，對於第一季的毛利率，這並不包括對勞施·科爾曼 (Rausch Coleman) 的任何採購會計影響。我猜不會是在第一季度，但我們可以說，在第二、第三季度，預計會有採購會計影響嗎？

Yes, there'll be some purchase accounting impact in the second quarter if we were to close at the end of the first quarter. But I'd say I think about it, if we're -- and again, depending on when we close, if we estimate 4,000 deliveries over the second, third and fourth quarter, you can see that the purchase accounting impact in that second quarter will not be material to margins overall.

是的，如果我們在第一季末關閉，第二季的採購會計將會受到一些影響。但我想說的是，我想一下，如果我們——再說一次，取決於我們關閉的時間，如果我們估計第二、第三和第四季度的交付量為4,000 份，您可以看到第二季度的採購會計影響季度對整體利潤率影響不大。

Great. Thanks. Happy holidays, everyone.

偉大的。謝謝。大家節日快樂。

Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI.

史蒂芬金，Evercore ISI。

Thanks very much, guys. I want to try to clean up a little bit, if I can, on the gross margin. Stuart, I think you indicated that the backlog has gross margins that are kind of running closer to 20%. And I think I heard you say that you sort of thought that the number of -- or the percentage of closings that you would get in 1Q that you have not yet sold or had not yet sold. at the end of November was about half, right? So then that makes it easy. That sort of implies that your 19% gross margin in the first quarter, that implies that the stuff you're going to be selling here over the coming weeks, you're sort of thinking it may be an 18% gross margin.

非常感謝，夥計們。如果可以的話，我想嘗試改善一點毛利率。 Stuart，我認為您表示積壓訂單的毛利率接近 20%。我想我聽到你說，你認為第一季你尚未出售或尚未出售的成交數量或百分比。 11月底大約是一半，對嗎？那麼這就很容易了。這意味著你第一季的毛利率為 19%，這意味著你將在未來幾週內在這裡銷售的產品，你可能會認為毛利率可能為 18%。

I think you also indicated, though, that 1Q has sort of a catch-up in sales going on because you missed your 4Q sales. So that might sort of suggest that if you're trying to figure out what a steady state gross margin is that 18% is probably a little lower because you're actually sort of overselling, if you will, a little bit to make up for 4Q. Just want to make sure I'm thinking about that right. or if there's some other adjustment that we need to be thinking about?

不過，我認為您也表示，第一季的銷售額有所追趕，因為您錯過了第四季度的銷售額。因此，這可能表明，如果你想弄清楚穩態毛利率是多少，18% 可能會低一些，因為你實際上有點超賣，如果你願意的話，可以稍微彌補一下。只是想確保我的想法是正確的。或者我們需要考慮其他一些調整？

I think you're doing a good job. That's pretty right on. And we'll have to see how the market actually unfolds and enables or not enables activity at that level, but we're going to solve two activity.

我認為你做得很好。說得非常對。我們必須了解市場如何實際展開以及是否能夠實現該水準的活動，但我們將解決兩項活動。

Yeah, I think that's right, Steve. And that 20% margin, if you think about it, it has the impact of the increased incentive levels from Q4, which Jon really gave you some details on that. And I think if market conditions improve, there's upside to that. But we're trying to be really conservative right now because there just isn't a lot of visibility as we sit here in the middle of December.

是的，我認為這是對的，史蒂夫。如果你仔細想想，20% 的利潤率會受到第四季度激勵水準提高的影響，Jon 確實給了你一些細節。我認為如果市場狀況改善，那就有好處。但我們現在正努力保持保守，因為我們在 12 月中旬坐在這裡，能見度並不高。

And let me just add and say, look, we are solving to volume. But what we are doing is we're working while we solve to volume on rationalizing the cost structure and whether it's on the land side, or whether it's on the production hard cost side, our relationships with our trade partners, building predictable volume that they can count on, and they know that we're not flinching enables us to rework some of the efficiencies in some of those numbers.

讓我補充一下，看，我們正在解決數量問題。但我們正在做的是，我們正在努力解決產量問題，使成本結構合理化，無論是在土地方面，還是在生產硬成本方面，我們與貿易夥伴的關係，建立他們可以預測的產量可以信賴，他們知道我們不會退縮，這使我們能夠重新提高其中一些數字的效率。

We've continued to be able to either bring our costs down or at least hold the study in a tough environment. And we think that we'll be able to make more progress rationalizing cost by giving consistent volume. So there are some offsets in all of this that are important to the way that we're thinking about our business.

我們繼續能夠降低成本，或至少在艱難的環境中進行研究。我們認為，透過提供一致的數量，我們將能夠在成本合理化方面取得更多進展。因此，所有這些中存在著一些對我們思考業務的方式很重要的抵消。

Yes, that's helpful. And I think I should also have mentioned that you also indicated that 1Q has lower margins than sort of a full year. So that's also -- so 18 isn't exactly like sort of an annualized number anyway on top of being conservative.

是的，這很有幫助。我想我還應該提到，您也表示第一季的利潤率低於全年。所以，除了保守之外，18 並不完全像年化數字。

Yes. Let me --

是的。讓我 -

Yes. We have that field impact as well, Steve, which is not an immaterial number.

是的。史蒂夫，我們也有這種現場影響力，這並不是一個無關緊要的數字。

And let me say this that I do want to go back to the third quarter where I detailed that our community count had fallen off. The bolstering of community count also helps alleviate some of the pressure at the community-by-community level. So these things are going to work through and work out. We're confident in that. And we like the fact that, okay, we're a little lower right now, but over time, we're going to normalize and we're going to multiply it by a bigger number.

讓我說一下，我確實想回到第三季度，在那裡我詳細說明了我們的社區數量已經下降。社區數量的增加也有助於減輕社區層面的壓力。所以這些事情將會得到解決並解決。我們對此充滿信心。我們喜歡這樣一個事實，好吧，我們現在有點低，但隨著時間的推移，我們將正常化，並將其乘以更大的數字。

Got you. Okay. Switching gears to volume. Your closings guide is 86 to 88, up about 10%. I guess my question is, does that assume orders the year noticeably above the closings range? Or does it assume a meaningfully higher backlog turnover ratio for the year? Because I think in order to hit that closing guide, you're going to need one or the other. You're going to need to have orders either higher than that number or you're going to have to have backlog turnover ratio higher than it was last year. And -- so I'm kind of curious, which is it?

明白你了。好的。將檔位切換至音量。您的收盤指南為 86 至 88，上漲約 10%。我想我的問題是，這是否假設當年的訂單明顯高於收盤範圍？還是假設今年的積壓週轉率明顯較高？因為我認為為了達到那個結束指南，你需要其中一個。您將需要有高於該數字的訂單，或者您將必須有比去年更高的積壓週轉率。而且──所以我有點好奇，是哪一個？

And if you tell me if it's orders that orders are going to be higher. I just want to make sure that we're thinking, right, because my model is sort of telling me, it's got to be like north of 20% order growth in 2Q and 3Q, including Rausch. And if you're telling me no, no, it's probably a higher backlog turnover ratio. I'm going to ask, well then, well -- are you contemplating cycle time impacts from maybe a crackdown on undocumented workers.

如果你告訴我是否有訂單，那麼訂單會更高。我只是想確保我們的想法是正確的，因為我的模型告訴我，第二季和第三季的訂單成長必須超過 20%，包括 Rausch。如果你告訴我不，不，這可能是積壓週轉率更高。那麼，我要問的是，您是否正在考慮打擊無證工人對週期時間的影響。

Yeah. So you're not going to be happy with my answer, but I think it's a little bit of both. And look, we are driving and getting more and more efficient across the platform. And what I mean by that is on the orders, the new order side, the focus and attention that we're bringing to the generation of sales whether it's through our digital marketing machine or whether it's through our dynamic pricing mechanism, we are building efficiency through those programs. And so there will be some order growth embedded in this. But additionally, the focus and attention that we have brought to cycle time, which enables that backlog conversion to accelerate the efficiencies that we're injecting in our business. I mean if you listen to Jon's articulation, it's not just construction costs that are holding steady in a higher pressured environment. It's also cycle time coming down.

是的。所以你不會對我的回答感到滿意，但我認為兩者兼而有之。看，我們正在推動整個平台變得越來越有效率。我的意思是在訂單、新訂單方面，我們對銷售產生的關注和關注，無論是透過我們的數位行銷機器還是透過我們的動態定價機制，我們正在提高效率通過這些計劃。因此，其中將會出現一些訂單成長。此外，我們對週期時間的關注和關注，使得積壓訂單轉換能夠加速我們業務的效率。我的意思是，如果你聽喬恩的闡述，你會發現在壓力更大的環境中保持穩定的不僅僅是建築成本。週期時間也縮短了。

Now you raised the question of immigration and what happens with immigration policy. And that's a wildcard out there. And we're all going to have to figure out how that kind of meshes together. But I will say as an overlay here. is that one of the things that we are doing is we're injecting predictability with our trade partners so that they understand that we're there for them, and we're going to need them to be there for us. And that is a food prop that kind of exists in the market, and we have been rock-solid consistent in laying out the logistics and the predictability that enables them to be the best version of themselves. And even when the market says lunch, we're not fledging and that predictability is a value add.

現在您提出了移民問題以及移民政策的情況。這是一個通配符。我們都必須弄清楚這種方式是如何結合在一起的。但我會在這裡說作為覆蓋。我們正在做的事情之一就是向我們的貿易夥伴注入可預測性，以便他們明白我們在他們身邊，我們也需要他們在我們身邊。這是市場上存在的一種食品道具，我們在佈局物流和可預測性方面一直堅如磐石，使他們能夠成為最好的自己。即使市場說午餐，我們還沒有成熟，可預測性是一種增值。

I would just add to that, Steve, that predictability comes with a real focus on simplification. So we have greatly reduced SKU count than we used to have, which enabled the execution which Stuart just described to truly happen as you work through both the labor force and the manufacturers.

史蒂夫，我想補充一點，可預測性伴隨著對簡化的真正關注。因此，我們比以前大大減少了 SKU 數量，這使得史都華剛才所描述的執行能夠在勞動力和製造商的工作中真正實現。

So just so I'm clear, are you assuming any cycle time? It sounds like you're not assuming any cycle time impacts because if you do have it affecting the market, it's going to affect other people, but not you. Just so I'm clear, is that what you're sort of saying?

所以我很清楚，您是否假設有任何週期時間？聽起來你並沒有假設任何週期時間影響，因為如果你確實讓它影響市場，它會影響其他人，但不會影響你。我就說清楚了，你是這麼說的嗎？

Well, that's the two hunters with the bear chasing them. And we're not quite that mercenary. We want all of our competitors to do well. But we are laser-focused on our production, our cycle time, and we are solving to the most consistency to be able to accomplish the things we're accomplishing. Now are we assuming that there will be variability in here, given an uncertain political environment, we are naturally thinking about that quite a bit, working with and talking to trade partners to look at eventualities. Are there the switch with is something that is very much a part of our thinking.

嗯，那就是兩個獵人和熊在追他們。我們也不那麼唯利是圖。我們希望所有競爭對手都能取得好成績。但我們非常專注於我們的生產、我們的週期時間，我們正在解決最大的一致性，以便能夠完成我們正在完成的事情。現在，我們假設這裡會出現變化，考慮到不確定的政治環境，我們自然會對此進行大量思考，與貿易夥伴合作並交談，以研究可能發生的情況。是否有開關是我們思考的重要組成部分。

Great. Thank you so much, guys.

偉大的。非常感謝你們，夥伴們。

Trevor Allinson, Wolfe Research.

特雷弗·阿林森，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Stuart, I first wanted to follow up on some comments you just made talking about conversations with your suppliers and with the trades given 1Q gross margins are back to pre-pandemic levels. With your focus on growing volumes here, are you expecting to see some cost concessions maybe excluding any impacts from changes in policy but are you expecting to see some cost concessions here in 2025 from both your trades and your suppliers?

你好。早安.感謝您回答我的問題。斯圖爾特，我首先想跟進您剛剛發表的一些評論，其中涉及與供應商和交易的對話，因為第一季的毛利率已恢復到大流行前的水平。由於您專注於此處銷售的成長，您是否期望看到一些成本讓步（可能排除政策變化的任何影響），但您是否期望在2025 年看到您的行業和供應商在此處看到一些成本讓步？

Yes. This is John. We -- it's a continuous program of discussions with our supply chain to find efficiencies and bring costs down. So we do expect that to continue. A big part of that is relative to our product strategy, our core product strategy, which we've discussed before. I just mentioned, it gets to the details of SKU reduction. But the biggest thing is consistent, predictable volume enables us to have that discussion with our trade partners and have their margin come down just as our margin is coming down.

是的。這是約翰。我們——這是與我們的供應鏈進行持續討論的計劃，以提高效率並降低成本。所以我們確實希望這種情況能夠持續下去。其中很大一部分與我們的產品策略、我們的核心產品策略有關，我們之前已經討論過。我剛才提到了，涉及到SKU減少的細節。但最重要的是一致的、可預測的交易量使我們能夠與我們的貿易夥伴進行討論，並在我們的利潤下降時讓他們的利潤下降。

Okay. Got you. That makes a lot of sense. And then second, there's been a lot of talk in the industry about elevated completed inventory levels. It sounds like your completed inventory levels remain relatively normal. Can you just talk about your comfort levels with where your completed inventory levels are at in the current demand environment and then perhaps expand that commentary to the completed inventory levels overall in your markets and if you feel in any of your markets, they've got more extended. Thank you.

好的。明白你了。這很有意義。其次，業界有很多關於成品庫存水準升高的討論。聽起來您的已完成庫存水準仍然相對正常。您能否談談您對當前需求環境中已完成庫存水平的舒適度，然後也許將該評論擴展到您市場中的總體已完成庫存水平，如果您覺得在任何市場中，他們已經更擴展。謝謝。

Yes, that's a great question, Trevor. Our inventory as we came to the end of the year was within our range, but at the high end of our range. And we're very focused on maintaining an inventory level that is appropriate. So let me talk about appropriate. We recognize that buildup in inventory is the best way to really cast a dark cloud over your future. If we have too much inventory, it's going to constantly be a depressant on where pricing and margins can actually grow. So we're laser-focused on keeping our inventory level within a range. Now historically, we've trended closer to one home per community versus the two homes that we're at right now, but we've been within that range of one to two homes.

是的，這是一個很好的問題，特雷弗。到年底時，我們的庫存在我們的範圍內，但處於我們範圍的高端。我們非常注重維持適當的庫存水準。那我就來說說合適的吧。我們認識到，庫存的增加是為您的未來蒙上陰影的最佳方式。如果我們的庫存過多，就會持續抑制定價和利潤的實際成長。因此，我們專注於將庫存水準保持在一定範圍內。從歷史上看，我們已經趨向於每個社區擁有一所住宅，而不是現在的兩所住宅，但我們一直處於一到兩所住宅的範圍內。

We've actually migrated to a thinking process that given our land-light strategy, we're enabled to maybe carry just a little bit more than we have historically. And that really enables us to address the customer that comes in and needs a home now as opposed to one that's under production or to be under production. And therefore, we think that something closer to the two home per community range is where we want to land, but we do not want to get above that. So that's how we're thinking. That's what we're solving to. We're going to carefully maintain inventory, but we're going to be a little bit towards our historical higher side as a matter of strategy.

實際上，我們已經轉向了一種思維過程，考慮到我們的陸上輕型策略，我們可能能夠攜帶比歷史上多一點的東西。這確實使我們能夠滿足那些現在需要住房的客戶，而不是正在生產或即將生產的客戶。因此，我們認為接近每個社區兩個家庭的範圍是我們想要著陸的地方，但我們不想超越這個範圍。這就是我們的想法。這就是我們要解決的問題。我們將謹慎地維持庫存，但作為戰略問題，我們將向歷史較高水準邁進。

And just to add to that, Trevor, we're very focused on not just maintaining inventory levels, but the freshness of that inventory. So we're very focused on not letting it age. And if you look at our inventory, about 80% of it is 90 days or fresher from an aging perspective. So it's a big part of this overall focus of our operating platform.

特雷弗，補充一點，我們不僅非常關注維持庫存水平，而且還關注庫存的新鮮度。所以我們非常注重不要讓它老化。如果你看一下我們的庫存，從老化的角度來看，大約 80% 的庫存是 90 天或更新鮮的。因此，這是我們營運平台整體重點的重要組成部分。

Thank you. Appreciate all that color. Good luck with moving forward.

謝謝。欣賞所有這些顏色。祝你前進順利。

Susan Maklari, Goldman Sachs.

蘇珊·馬克拉里，高盛。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. My first question is going back to some of the focus on rationalizing the cost structure in there. Can you talk about where you are in terms of standardizing those product offerings? How much more you can get over the next several quarters in there and how that will benefit both the margin structure over time, but then also just the cash generation of the business?

大家早安。感謝您提出問題。我的第一個問題是回到對成本結構合理化的一些關注。您能談談您在標準化這些產品方面的進展嗎？在接下來的幾個季度中，您可以獲得多少收益？

So we've been hard at work at a standardized product offering, which we refer to as our core product. And in '24, it represented about 10% of our starts, and we expect that, that's going to grow to about a third of our starts in 2025. So we do think there is further rationalization that will be very positively received by our supply chain, both labor and materials as we create more and more consistency, but also efficiency with that consistency that will both help cost and cycle time.

因此，我們一直在努力提供標準化產品，我們稱之為我們的核心產品。在24 年，它約占我們開工量的10%，我們預計到2025 年，這一比例將增長到我們開工量的約三分之一。積極歡迎鏈，包括勞動力和材料，因為我們創造了越來越多的一致性，而且這種一致性也提高了效率，這將有助於成本和週期時間。

The bottom line, Susan, is that there's a tremendous amount of opportunity here that we've been laser-focused on. The migration from 10% to a third of our product migrating to core equates to a great deal of efficiency, which is not about renegotiating with our trades as much as it is about value engineering and really building efficiency both into the design of the home and the production of the home. And so we think that over the next year, we'll see a lot more core product and a lot more reduction in cost associated with that.

蘇珊，最重要的是，這裡有大量我們一直關注的機會。我們的產品從10% 遷移到核心的三分之一相當於提高了很大的效率，這並不是要與我們的行業重新談判，而是要進行價值工程，並真正將效率構建到家庭和住宅的設計中。因此，我們認為，在明年，我們將看到更多的核心產品，並且與之相關的成本將大幅降低。

Okay. That's helpful. And then, Stuart, one of the comments that you made was that you're going to continue to focus on repurchasing the stock and shareholder returns, and that will obviously evolve as Millrose moves through the process. understanding there's a lot that can change in there, but can you talk to some of the key factors that you're watching for? And how that could perhaps evolve as we do get no roads out and we move into a newer model of the business.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，斯圖爾特，你發表的評論之一是，你將繼續專注於回購股票和股東回報，這顯然會隨著米爾羅斯完成這一過程而演變。了解其中有很多可以改變的地方，但是您能談談您正在關注的一些關鍵因素嗎？當我們沒有出路並轉向更新的業務模式時，這種情況可能會如何發展。

Well, let's remember, first of all, that Millrose is the end of a process that has been ongoing for five years. So we have a tremendous amount of experience with our other land banking partners, starting with essential housing and Angelo Gordon, where we have a tremendous program and opportunity to continue to grow. And morose is a next step.

好吧，首先讓我們記住，米爾羅斯是一個已經持續了五年的過程的終點。因此，我們與其他土地儲備合作夥伴擁有豐富的經驗，從基本住房和 Angelo Gordon 開始，我們在那裡擁有巨大的計劃和繼續發展的機會。下一步是憂鬱。

The biggest difference with Millrose is that it is a permanent capital vehicle as opposed to one where a group has to keep going up and raising the next round of capital. So there's something strategic about Millrose. As we take a large portion of land, our remaining land and move it into the system, we're going to see how capital flows, especially at the start-up of the Millrose endeavor. As we go public, there will be a startup process.

與 Millrose 最大的區別在於，它是一種永久性的資本工具，而不是一個集團必須不斷上升並籌集下一輪資本的工具。所以米爾羅斯有一些戰略意義。當我們拿走大部分土地，我們剩餘的土地並將其轉移到系統中時，我們將看到資本如何流動，特別是在米爾羅斯計畫啟動時。當我們上市時，將會有一個啟動過程。

And as we mature the engagement, which will dovetail with all of our other land banking relationships as well as episodic programs where we're dealing with landowners and have rolling option programs as well. as we mature our engagement with now what will be a fully land-light strategy will develop the confidence around how much of the capital that we're producing, the cash flow that we're producing actually goes to return to shareholders either through dividend or through stock buyback and as we're paying down debt as well. I'm not sure that, that answers your question, but it's just a maturing process that we'll go through as Melrose goes public.

隨著我們的參與逐漸成熟，這將與我們所有其他土地儲備關係以及我們與土地所有者打交道的間歇性計劃以及滾動期權計劃相吻合。隨著我們成熟的參與，現在將是一個完全輕土地策略，這將增強我們對我們正在生產的資本的信心，我們正在生產的現金流實際上會透過股息或透過股票回購以及我們還清債務。我不確定這是否能回答你的問題，但這只是梅爾羅斯上市時我們將經歷的一個成熟過程。

Yes. And Susan, I would add to that, that as you remember, I said the goal is to really have our net income equal our cash flow. And I think 2025 is sort of a year where a lot is coming together, and we'll still be embarking on that journey of making sure that we're increasing shareholder returns through all the mechanisms of dividends and buybacks.

是的。蘇珊，我想補充一點，你還記得，我說過我們的目標是真正讓我們的淨利潤等於我們的現金流。我認為 2025 年是許多事情匯聚在一起的一年，我們仍將踏上這段旅程，確保透過所有股利和回購機制增加股東回報。

But I think as you look on a longer-term sustained basis, I think that we will get to the point where net income is pretty close to cash flow. And we don't have a large maturity ladder from a debt standpoint. So by design, that cash flow will be more heavily geared towards buybacks. since we were formally very focused on the debt reduction. So I think that should give you sort of a trajectory of where we're going. What's important to us is to have a sustained program. And I think that we are taking a step -- another step in that direction.

但我認為，從長期持續的角度來看，我認為我們將達到淨利潤非常接近現金流的地步。從債務的角度來看，我們沒有很大的期限階梯。因此，按照設計，現金流將更多地用於回購。因為我們正式非常關注債務削減。所以我認為這應該會給你一個我們前進的軌跡。對我們來說重要的是要有一個持續的計劃。我認為我們正在朝著這個方向邁出一步。

Okay. That's really helpful color. Thank you. Good luck with everything.

好的。這真是有用的顏色。謝謝。祝一切順利。

And why don't we take one last question?

我們為什麼不回答最後一個問題呢？

John Lovallo, UBS.

約翰‧洛瓦洛，瑞銀集團。

Thank you for taking my questions as well. Maybe the first one on the spin. I'm just curious why you decided to partner with an external manager in the Millrose deal.

也感謝您回答我的問題。也許是旋轉中的第一個。我只是好奇你為什麼決定在米爾羅斯交易中與外部經理合作。

And then along the same lines, what do you sort of think of as the right comps? I mean should we be looking at mortgage age REITs. I mean they do tend to trade at, call it, a 20% discount to book value. So I'm just curious what you would consider to be good comps and why is an external manager.

然後沿著同樣的思路，你認為什麼才是正確的搭配？我的意思是我們應該考慮抵押年齡房地產投資信託基金。我的意思是，他們確實傾向於以帳面價值 20% 的折扣進行交易。所以我只是好奇你認為什麼是好的薪水以及為什麼是外部經理。

Jon, thanks for the question. I got Fred Rothman sitting right next to me. And Fred has done a tremendous amount of work on building the programming and the execution around Millrose. Kennedy Lewis has been a participant along the way. And Fred, do you want to weigh in on the Kennedy Lewis relationship?

喬恩，謝謝你的提問。我讓弗雷德·羅斯曼坐在我旁邊。 Fred 在圍繞 Millrose 建立程式設計和執行方面做了大量工作。甘迺迪·劉易斯一直是這過程的參與者。弗雷德，你想談談甘迺迪·劉易斯的關係嗎？

Sure. We have a long, strong history of Kennedy Lewis that has produced a very, very good working relationship and using them as an outside managers here allows Millrose to get going from day one. We're going to be conveying and transferring a large number of home sites, and we need Millrose to be up and running to develop an internal platform and to develop the systems they're already familiar with our hopper. So on day one, Millrose will be very active up and running and be a strong partner for Lennar.

當然。我們與肯尼迪·劉易斯 (Kennedy Lewis) 有著悠久而深厚的歷史，我們建立了非常非常良好的工作關係，並利用他們作為外部經理，讓米爾羅斯從第一天起就可以開始工作。我們將要輸送和轉移大量的住宅場地，我們需要 Millrose 啟動並運行以開發內部平台並開發他們已經熟悉我們料斗的系統。因此，在第一天，Millrose 將非常積極地啟動和運行，並成為 Lennar 的強大合作夥伴。

And let me just add to that and say we've been asked, why wouldn't you have done it with Angelo Gordon. And let me tell you, the relationship with Angelo Gordon is extremely strong and beneficial but multiple pools of capital are going to benefit us and the industry for that matter as we go into the future. And so therefore, we have strong participants that are familiar, as Fred said, with the hopper the way that we govern the overall oversight of purchasing land, developing land, financing land and moving it through the system in orderly fashion.

讓我補充一點，我們被問到，為什麼不和安吉洛·戈登一起做呢？讓我告訴你，與安吉洛·戈登的關係非常牢固和有益，但隨著我們走向未來，多個資本池將使我們和整個行業受益。因此，正如弗雷德所說，我們擁有強大的參與者，他們熟悉漏斗，也就是我們對購買土地、開發土地、融資土地以及透過系統有序轉移土地進行整體監督的方式。

We have a lot of experience with the professionals at Kennedy Lewis already. They were a natural external manager, why an external manager. It gives clear visibility on what the cost structure is. The cost structure is borne by the professional manager. A very clear fee is it supports the payment of all of the overhead associated with the administration. It's a much more simple structure for the world to understand.

我們已經與肯尼迪劉易斯的專業人士積累了豐富的經驗。他們是天生的外部經理，為什麼是外部經理。它使成本結構清晰可見。成本結構由職業經理人承擔。一項非常明確的費用是它支援支付與管理相關的所有管理費用。對全世界來說，這是一個更簡單的結構。

And then you asked a question of what are going to be the comps. I think we're going to leave that to the next couple of months as we take Millrose public. So there's a little bit of wait and see, and we're going to stay within the boundaries of what's in the S11 right now. but we're very enthusiastic about this addition to the capital markets and what it means for the future of the homebuilder as a manufacturer that benefits from dust in-time delivery of homesites.

然後你問了一個關於比賽將會是什麼的問題。我認為我們將把這個問題留到接下來的幾個月，因為我們將米爾羅斯上市。因此，我們需要等待一段時間，我們現在將保持在 S11 的範圍內。但我們對資本市場的這項補充非常熱衷，以及這對住宅建築商作為製造商的未來意味著什麼，因為住宅建築商可以從及時交付的住宅中受益。

Yes. Jon, I would -- I just want to add. If you think about one of the goals with Millrose was to have Millrose produce sustainable recurring cash flows and income. And I think about that -- while it's not perfect, I think about that sort of compared to the returns that you're getting from a bond investment, for example.

是的。喬恩，我會——我只是想補充一點。如果你想想 Millrose 的目標之一就是讓 Millrose 產生可持續的經常性現金流和收入。我想到了這一點——雖然它並不完美，但我想到了與債券投資的回報相比。

And so that -- I think that that recurring sustainable component will be very important. And so as Stuart mentioned, having a very fixed fee structure against that recurring income and cash flow, I think, will accomplish the goal that we're trying to -- one of the goals that we're trying to accomplish as you think about new from an investment standpoint.

因此，我認為反覆出現的可持續成分將非常重要。正如史都華所提到的，我認為，針對經常性收入和現金流採用非常固定的費用結構，將實現我們正在努力實現的目標——正如你所想，我們正在努力實現的目標之一從投資的角度來看是新的。

Fred, anything else you would add?

弗雷德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Just the Kennedy Lewis has put the team together and just has a proven track record that is just going to make this a seamless transition for us on day one. And I think that's critical for the success of Millrose and the sustainable and future growth of Lennar.

肯尼迪劉易斯 (Kennedy Lewis) 將團隊凝聚在一起，並且擁有良好的業績記錄，這將使我們在第一天就實現無縫過渡。我認為這對於 Millrose 的成功以及 Lennar 的可持續和未來成長至關重要。

That's really helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I just wanted to go back to an earlier question just to make sure I understand the strategy here. The 10% growth in delivery target was out there pre-Rausch. You guys have maintained that at the high end, including Rausch. So I guess the question is if it were not for Rausch, would you have lowered that target? Or conversely, is Rausch just giving you sort of the opportunity to not push pace quite as hard in the existing communities and still get that same volume at perhaps a higher margin?

這真的很有幫助。然後，作為後續行動，我只想回到先前的問題，以確保我理解這裡的策略。交付量成長 10% 的目標是在 Rausch 之前就設定的。你們一直保持著高端水平，包括勞施。所以我想問題是如果沒有勞施，你會降低這個目標嗎？或者相反，Rausch 是否只是為您提供了一種機會，讓您不必在現有社區中那麼努力地加快步伐，但仍能以更高的利潤獲得相同的數量？

So let me just add a little correction. We've been working on the Rausch deal long before it became public. In our world, when we do deals, it is all about relationship and fit. And we have spent a tremendous amount of time working through not just the relationship but a thoughtful negotiation on how things work best in bringing something together. So our 10% really didn't predate Rausch. We've been aware of and predisposed for this to be a part of our growth strategy and a very strategic part.

所以讓我補充一點修正。早在勞施交易公開之前，我們就一直致力於這項交易。在我們的世界裡，當我們進行交易時，一切都與關係和契合有關。我們花費了大量的時間，不僅處理關係，還就如何最好地整合在一起進行了深思熟慮的談判。所以我們的 10% 確實沒有早於勞施。我們已經意識到並準備好將其作為我們成長策略的一部分，並且是一個非常具有戰略意義的部分。

If you look at the way we're thinking about growth strategy today or the way we have been thinking about it, it has been in part densifying some of the divisions that we already have in place. Some of them are already densified. But we've also been thinking about how we bring our brand to a broader geography. And so an acquisition component of entering new markets has been a thoughtful accelerant to the way that we've thought about growth. And the Rausch program has fit well within the boundaries of what we've been expecting of our own growth strategy. Now once again, I'm going to say Fred has been the primary driver negotiator in and around the Rausch deal.

如果你看看我們今天考慮成長策略的方式或我們一直以來的考慮方式，你會發現它在某種程度上強化了我們已經存在的一些部門。其中一些已經緻密化。但我們也一直在思考如何將我們的品牌推向更廣闊的地域。因此，進入新市場的收購部分一直是我們考慮成長方式的深思熟慮的促進劑。勞施計劃非常符合我們對自身成長策略的預期。現在，我要再說一遍，弗雷德一直是勞施交易中及周圍的主要司機談判代表。

Fred, would you add to that?

弗雷德，你能補充一下嗎？

Well, Rausch also has a strong position in many of the markets we're not in. So we hit the ground running with Rash as number one market share in many of the markets we're not in. So we immediately will be able to capture the opportunities and the growth of being the number one builder in a bunch of new markets, accessing our ability, combined with the Rausch Coleman excellent track record and access to land going forward. So really an exciting opportunity for both companies.

嗯，Rausch 在許多我們未涉足的市場中也擁有強大的地位。 ，成為一系列新市場中的第一建築商，利用我們的能力，結合勞施·科爾曼（Rausch Coleman）的卓越業績記錄和未來獲得土地的機會。這對兩家公司來說確實是一個令人興奮的機會。

Guess and at a lower price point, which is attractive in today's affordability challenge market.

猜測並以較低的價格點，這在當今承受能力挑戰的市場中具有吸引力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Well, I want to thank everyone for joining today. I know it's a bit of a turbulent ride, but we're pretty excited about our future. Short term, lumpy, long-term excited and we look forward to reporting back at the end of our first quarter. Have a nice day, everyone, and happy holidays.

嗯，我要感謝大家今天的加入。我知道這過程有點動盪，但我們對未來感到非常興奮。短期來看，波動較大，長期興奮，我們期待在第一季末報告。祝大家有美好的一天，節日快樂。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may go ahead and disconnect at this time.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以繼續並斷開連線。