可口可樂 (KO) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to The Coca-Cola Company's Third Quarter Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. (Operator Instructions)

在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加可口可樂公司第三季度收益結果電話會議。今天的電話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，請在此時斷開連接。 （操作員說明）

I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors, and therefore, questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola media relations department if they have any questions.

我想提醒大家，這次會議的目的是與投資者對話，因此媒體的問題不會被解決。媒體參與者如有任何問題，請聯繫可口可樂媒體關係部。

I would now like to introduce Mr. Tim Leveridge, Vice President of IR and FP&A. Mr. Leveridge, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下 IR 和 FP&A 副總裁 Tim Leveridge 先生。 Leveridge 先生，您可以開始了。

Good morning. And thank you for joining us today. I'm here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Murphy, our Chief Financial Officer.

早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。我和我們的董事長兼首席執行官 James Quincey 在一起；和我們的首席財務官約翰·墨菲。

Before we begin, please note we've posted schedules under the Financial Information tab in the Investors section of our company website at www.coca-colacompany.com. These schedules reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures, which may be referred to by our senior executives during this morning's discussion, to our results as reported under generally accepted accounting principles. You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide an analysis of our gross and operating margins.

在開始之前，請注意我們已在公司網站 www.coca-colacompany.com 的“投資者”部分的“財務信息”選項卡下發布了時間表。這些時間表使我們的高級管理人員在今天上午的討論中可能提到的某些非公認會計原則財務指標與我們根據公認會計原則報告的結果相一致。您還可以在我們網站的同一部分找到對我們的毛利率和營業利潤率進行分析的時間表。

In addition, this conference call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, and should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the company's most recent periodic SEC report.

此外，本次電話會議可能包含前瞻性陳述，包括有關長期收益目標的陳述，並應與我們的收益發布和公司最近的定期美國證券交易委員會報告中包含的警示性陳述一起考慮。

Following prepared remarks this morning, we will turn the call over for question. (Operator Instructions)

在今天早上準備好的發言之後，我們將把電話轉過來提問。 （操作員說明）

Now I will turn the call over to James.

現在我將把電話轉給詹姆斯。

Thanks, Tim, and Good morning, everyone.

謝謝蒂姆，大家早上好。

After a strong first half of the year, we saw continued momentum in our business in the third quarter. While the global recovery remains asynchronous, our people and our systems are leveraging the learnings to deliver good results and emerge stronger. And while markets are at different stages of reopening around the world, our local businesses have been increasingly resilient through restrictions and lockdowns.

在經歷了上半年的強勁表現之後，我們看到第三季度的業務繼續保持增長勢頭。儘管全球復甦仍然不同步，但我們的員工和我們的系統正在利用這些經驗來取得良好的成果並變得更加強大。儘管全球市場處於重新開放的不同階段，但我們的本地企業通過限制和封鎖變得越來越有彈性。

As a result, our underlying volumes have accelerated on a 2-year basis with quarterly growth versus 2019 for the first time since the pandemic began. This improvement has been supported by our transformation agenda, which set us on our path to more efficient and effective marketing as well as more disciplined and intelligent innovation. We're investing accordingly behind our portfolio of loved brands and are seeing signs of early traction.

因此，自大流行開始以來，我們的基本交易量在 2 年的基礎上實現了與 2019 年相比首次出現季度增長。這一改進得到了我們轉型議程的支持，這使我們走上了更高效、更有效的營銷以及更規範、更智能的創新之路。我們正在相應地投資於我們喜愛的品牌組合，並看到了早期牽引的跡象。

Given strong results year-to-date and increased visibility into the rest of the year, we expect to deliver organic revenue at the high end of our previously provided range and are raising bottom line and cash flow guidance for the full year.

鑑於年初至今的強勁業績以及對今年剩餘時間的可見性提高，我們預計將在我們先前提供的範圍的高端提供有機收入，並提高全年的底線和現金流指導。

This morning, I'll provide a business update and discuss how our network organization is executing well in this dynamic environment. Then John will discuss our financials and raised guidance and some early considerations for 2022.

今天早上，我將提供業務更新並討論我們的網絡組織如何在這個動態環境中運行良好。然後約翰將討論我們的財務狀況，並提出指導以及 2022 年的一些早期考慮。

In the first half of 2021, mobility and business levels improved in many markets as lockdowns eased and vaccinations increased. The recovery has not been a straight line and continues to be uneven around the world. But despite the asynchronous recovery, in the third quarter, our volumes surpassed 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic began.

2021 年上半年，隨著封鎖的放鬆和疫苗接種的增加，許多市場的流動性和業務水平都有所提高。復甦並不是一條直線，而且在世界各地仍然不平衡。但是，儘管出現了異步復甦，但在第三季度，我們的交易量自大流行開始以來首次超過 2019 年的水平。

Although not yet back to 2019 levels as a percent of our business, we saw sequential improvement in away-from-home volumes on a 2-year basis as consumers returned to many of their former routines. At-home volumes also showed ongoing strength even as away-from-home channels improved. The quarter was off to a promising start in July, but the Delta variant impacted several markets, resulting in a softer August, followed by improvement in September as the variant began to lessen in some of our key markets.

儘管我們業務的百分比還沒有回到 2019 年的水平，但隨著消費者恢復了許多以前的日常活動，我們看到非家庭業務量連續兩年有所改善。即使離家渠道有所改善，在家中的銷量也顯示出持續的強勁勢頭。本季度在 7 月開局良好，但 Delta 變體影響了幾個市場，導致 8 月疲軟，隨後在 9 月有所改善，因為變體在我們的一些主要市場開始減少。

The pandemic continues to be a key factor across our operating environment, in addition to the ongoing pressure points in our supply chain. However, our network system is leveraging the learnings from the past 18 months, sharing best practices and skillfully executing by applying revenue growth management and working our supply chain levers to capitalize on the strengths of our brands and mitigate disruptions.

除了我們供應鏈中的持續壓力點之外，大流行仍然是我們運營環境中的一個關鍵因素。然而，我們的網絡系統正在利用過去 18 個月的經驗教訓，通過應用收入增長管理和利用我們的供應鏈槓桿來分享最佳實踐並巧妙地執行，以利用我們品牌的優勢並減少中斷。

The industry is growing, and we continue to gain share. Our overall value share improved year-on-year and remains above 2019 levels. We are pleased to report gains across categories as well as both within at-home and away-from-home channels.

該行業正在增長，我們繼續獲得份額。我們的整體價值份額同比提高，並保持在 2019 年的水平之上。我們很高興地報告各個類別以及在家和在家外渠道中的收益。

Our operating units are combining the power of scale with the deep knowledge required to win locally in an environment that remains dynamic. So diving a little into the key drivers across our geographies, starting with Asia Pacific.

我們的運營部門將規模的力量與在保持動態的環境中贏得本地所需的深厚知識相結合。因此，從亞太地區開始，深入了解我們各個地區的主要驅動因素。

In China, media investments across categories are yielding promising signs. Results in the quarter reflect strict COVID lockdowns and some weather-related disruption in August while September marked sequential improvements.

在中國，跨類別的媒體投資正在產生可喜的跡象。本季度的結果反映了 8 月份嚴格的 COVID 封鎖和一些與天氣有關的中斷，而 9 月份則顯著改善。

Japan's state of emergency was lifted at the end of the quarter after consumers spent the majority of 2021 in lockdown. Strengthened execution across our teams and innovation has helped lessen impacts, and our consumer base has grown beyond 2019 levels.

在消費者在 2021 年的大部分時間里處於封鎖狀態後，日本的緊急狀態於本季度末解除。加強我們團隊的執行力和創新有助於減少影響，我們的消費者群已超過 2019 年的水平。

In India, we participated strongly in the recovery by focusing on affordability and omnichannel growth through eB2B. We grew both Trademark Coke and local icon, Thums Up, using effective marketing activations. We had share gains in ASEAN and the South Pacific operating units despite pandemic-related restrictions in all of its top markets. Our investments behind sparkling flavors and Coca-Cola Zero Sugar will continue to create value when lockdowns are lifted.

在印度，我們通過 eB2B 關注可負擔性和全渠道增長，大力參與了經濟復甦。我們使用有效的營銷活動來發展商標可樂和本地偶像 Thums Up。儘管在所有主要市場都受到與大流行相關的限制，我們在東盟和南太平洋運營部門的份額有所增長。當解除封鎖時，我們對起泡口味和可口可樂零糖的投資將繼續創造價值。

In EMEA, in Europe, we gained value share across nearly all categories as restrictions eased. While weather, a slower recovery in tourism and the Delta surge had an impact, our global campaigns for key brands, including Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, Sprite and Fanta, helped drive sparkling's share.

在 EMEA 和歐洲，隨著限制的放寬，我們幾乎在所有類別中都獲得了價值份額。雖然天氣、旅遊業復甦放緩和達美航空激增產生了影響，但我們為可口可樂零糖、雪碧和芬達等主要品牌開展的全球活動幫助推動了起泡酒的份額。

As vaccinations accelerated in Eurasia and the Middle East, we maintained momentum through effective revenue growth management initiatives, resulting in top line that expanded faster than the macro environment in those top markets.

隨著歐亞大陸和中東地區疫苗接種速度的加快，我們通過有效的收入增長管理舉措保持了勢頭，導致收入增長速度超過了這些頂級市場的宏觀環境。

Our results in Africa were balanced across regions and categories during this quarter despite a third wave of the pandemic that resulted in targeted lockdowns. Vaccination rates remain on the low side relative to the rest of the world, and our focus remains on affordability and single-serve packs as mobility increases in countries like Egypt and Nigeria.

儘管第三波大流行導致了有針對性的封鎖，但我們在本季度在非洲的各個地區和類別的業績保持平衡。與世界其他地區相比，疫苗接種率仍然偏低，隨著埃及和尼日利亞等國家的流動性增加，我們的重點仍然是可負擔性和單次服務包。

We maintained strong momentum in North America despite a COVID resurgence in many states, leading to stalling consumer sentiments and supply chain challenges that resulted in both missed opportunities and incremental costs. The at-home channel remains healthy. And although away-from-home growth accelerated early in the quarter, labor shortages have constrained capacity with some on-premise customers. Recent price actions to offset higher input costs have been effective with lower-than-expected price elasticities to date, and promotional levels remain below 2019.

儘管許多州出現新冠疫情死灰復燃，但我們在北美仍保持強勁勢頭，導致消費者情緒停滯和供應鏈挑戰，從而導致錯失機會和增加成本。家庭頻道保持健康。儘管本季度初非家庭業務增長加速，但勞動力短缺限制了一些本地客戶的產能。迄今為止，為了抵消較高的投入成本而採取的價格行動是有效的，價格彈性低於預期，促銷水平仍低於 2019 年。

In Latin America, successful commercial initiatives, including affordability packs, increased availability of our key products and strong customer execution in both modern and traditional trade, drove volume growth across all major markets amid an improving COVID environment. Improvement in single-serve mix, some pricing actions and connecting brand strategies to on-premise customers to drive further recovery in the away-from-home channel all contributed to strong price/mix.

在拉丁美洲，成功的商業舉措，包括經濟實惠的包裝、增加我們關鍵產品的可用性以及在現代和傳統貿易中強大的客戶執行力，在 COVID 環境改善的情況下推動了所有主要市場的銷量增長。單次服務組合的改進、一些定價行動以及將品牌戰略與本地客戶聯繫起來以推動非家庭渠道的進一步復甦，這些都促成了強勁的價格/組合。

Within Global Ventures, Costa benefited from retail store recovery as the U.K. reopened with improved reach and frequency from its enhanced loyalty program. Costa continues to expand across platforms into new markets in partnership with our bottlers, resulting in growing brand awareness.

在 Global Ventures 中，隨著英國重新開放，Costa 受益於零售店的複蘇，其增強的忠誠度計劃提高了覆蓋面和頻率。 Costa 繼續與我們的裝瓶商合作跨平台擴展到新市場，從而提高品牌知名度。

Our Bottling Investments Group performance was driven by India and the Philippines. BIG saw strict lockdowns in several markets as well as rising inflation but has continued to see share gains year-to-date in South Africa. Adverse impacts have been well managed through package and category mix improvements along with cost controls, preserving progress on our operating margins during the pandemic.

我們的裝瓶投資集團業績受到印度和菲律賓的推動。 BIG 看到幾個市場的嚴格封鎖以及通脹上升，但今年迄今為止在南非繼續看到份額增長。通過改進包裝和類別組合以及成本控制，不利影響得到了很好的管理，在大流行期間保持了我們的營業利潤率的進步。

Global category teams are working with our operating units to build an engine to drive effective marketing at scale and innovation which can be amplified across the world. Highlights from this quarter include: Coca-Cola Zero Sugar's new recipe has rolled out in more than 50 countries and has had accelerated growth in the last 3 months. In September, Trademark Coca-Cola's new global brand philosophy, Real Magic, was unveiled, featuring a refreshed look for our iconic logo, the Hug. The Real Magic platform takes a digital-first approach, and our execution feature a range of experiences that are tailored to Gen Z and leverage passion points like gaming and music to attract the new generation of drinkers.

全球品類團隊正在與我們的運營部門合作，建立一個引擎，以推動有效的大規模營銷和創新，這可以在全球範圍內擴大。本季度的亮點包括： 可口可樂零糖的新配方已在 50 多個國家推出，並在過去 3 個月內加速增長。 9 月，商標可口可樂全新的全球品牌理念 Real Magic 揭幕，我們的標誌性標誌 Hug 煥然一新。 Real Magic 平台採用數字優先的方法，我們的執行提供一系列專為 Z 世代量身定制的體驗，並利用遊戲和音樂等激情點來吸引新一代飲酒者。

Sparkling flavors gained share in the quarter driven by investments in targeted brand-country combinations with a focus on occasions and zero sugar offerings. In China, Sprite volume growth was accelerated by leveraging the global Let's Be Clear campaign during summer music festivals. Similarly, the #WhatTheFanta campaign focuses on snacking and is driving growth across all key metrics in Europe.

由於對目標品牌國家組合的投資，重點是場合和零糖產品，起泡口味在本季度獲得了份額。在中國，雪碧的銷量增長通過在夏季音樂節期間利用全球 Let's Be Clear 活動加速。同樣，#WhatTheFanta 活動側重於零食，並正在推動歐洲所有關鍵指標的增長。

The hydration, sports, tea and coffee categories are seeing a good return on spend behind global brands. AHA's expansion into new markets this year has shown flexibility to adapt to local customer and consumer needs.

補水、運動、茶和咖啡品類在全球品牌背後的支出回報率很高。 AHA 今年向新市場的擴張顯示出適應當地客戶和消費者需求的靈活性。

In advanced hydration, functional benefits have helped to stretch brand power and drive share for Aquarius as it becomes more of a global brand.

在高級補水方面，隨著 Aquarius 越來越成為一個全球品牌，功能性優勢有助於擴大品牌影響力並提高市場份額。

Tea and coffee have had success with Fuze Tea in Europe and both Ayataka and Costa ready-to-drink in Japan. There is an opportunity to recover share in Georgia Coffee as the at-work occasion returns.

茶和咖啡在歐洲的 Fuze Tea 以及日本的 Ayataka 和 Costa 即飲型飲料都取得了成功。隨著工作場合的回歸，Georgia Coffee 有機會恢復份額。

Our juice portfolio gained share this quarter, helped by Minute Maid Pulpy performance in China, Del Valle growth in Latin America and strong results across brands in Africa.

我們的果汁產品組合在本季度獲得了份額，這得益於 Minute Maid Pulpy 在中國的表現、Del Valle 在拉丁美洲的增長以及非洲各品牌的強勁業績。

In dairy, fairlife is set to become the first billion-dollar brand in our dairy portfolio and has recently launched its joint venture in China.

在乳製品領域，fairlife 將成為我們乳製品組合中第一個價值十億美元的品牌，並且最近在中國成立了合資企業。

Our experimentation with Topo Chico Hard Seltzer is expanding, and we're gathering valuable insights globally, including the importance of building the category in regions where it is nascent.

我們對 Topo Chico Hard Seltzer 的試驗正在擴大，我們正在全球範圍內收集有價值的見解，包括在新興地區建立該類別的重要性。

We are seeing encouraging performance where the flavored alcoholic beverage category is growing rapidly, and we have on-shelf presence. Molson Coors recently announced the national rollout of Topo Chico Hard Seltzer in the U.S. with new Margarita flavors. We also recently announced the expansion of our relationship with Molson Coors to bring the brand into Canada.

我們看到了令人鼓舞的表現，調味酒精飲料類別正在迅速增長，並且我們有貨架存在。 Molson Coors 最近宣佈在美國推出帶有新瑪格麗塔風味的 Topo Chico Hard Seltzer。我們最近還宣布擴大與 Molson Coors 的關係，將品牌帶入加拿大。

As the pandemic recovery has progressed, we've seen challenges and disruptions in many parts of the world, in addition to inflationary forces that could persist. We have years of experience in dealing with these types of environments and are enhancing our strong capabilities that enable us to do so. We are using the crucial tool of revenue growth management in its many forms and are executing in collaboration with our bottling partners. We continue to refine our ability to optimize price and package offerings according to occasions, brands and channels, striking the right balance between premiumization and affordability.

隨著大流行複甦的進展，我們在世界許多地方看到了挑戰和破壞，以及可能持續存在的通貨膨脹力量。我們在處理這些類型的環境方面擁有多年的經驗，並且正在增強我們的強大能力，使我們能夠做到這一點。我們正在以多種形式使用關鍵的收入增長管理工具，並與我們的裝瓶合作夥伴合作執行。我們繼續改進根據場合、品牌和渠道優化價格和套餐產品的能力，在高端化和可負擔性之間取得適當的平衡。

In addition to streamlining our portfolio, targeting more disciplined innovation, intelligent experimentation and transforming our marketing model, we're also building strong digital capabilities. We have taken an enterprise approach and are progressing on the rollout of multi-category eB2B platforms with our bottlers globally. As an example, Wabi is seeing strong growth outside its home market of Latin America and has more than 50 categories contributing meaningfully to its sales on the platform.

除了精簡我們的產品組合、瞄準更有紀律的創新、智能實驗和轉變我們的營銷模式外，我們還在建立強大的數字能力。我們採取了企業方法，並正在與我們的全球裝瓶商一起推出多類別 eB2B 平台。例如，Wabi 在其拉丁美洲本土市場以外的地區實現了強勁增長，並且有 50 多個類別對其平台上的銷售做出了有意義的貢獻。

Additionally, we are delivering outsized growth through a powerful and growing omnichannel presence across regions. We're driving incremental incidents with partners like foodservice aggregators. North America, for example, has grown attachment rates by mid-single digits with third-party and restaurant-owned platforms. And we're gaining share in e-commerce with significant wins in Eurasia and hitting record levels in Latin America this quarter.

此外，我們通過跨地區強大且不斷增長的全渠道業務實現了巨大的增長。我們正在推動與餐飲服務聚合商等合作夥伴的增量事件。例如，北美與第三方和餐廳擁有的平台的連接率增長了中個位數。我們在電子商務中的份額正在增加，在歐亞大陸取得了重大勝利，並在本季度在拉丁美洲達到了創紀錄的水平。

I'd also like to reiterate that sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and is a key driver of future growth. From 2018 when we launched World Without Waste through today, we've made much progress against our pillars to design, collect and partner to deliver against our goals.

我還想重申，可持續發展是我們業務戰略不可或缺的一部分，也是未來增長的關鍵驅動力。從 2018 年推出“無浪費世界”到今天，我們在設計、收集和合作以實現我們的目標的支柱方面取得了很大進展。

Our commitment to reduce waste globally is also closely connected to our climate ambitions because collecting more empty packages, using more recycled material, lightweighting our bottles and using plant-based materials are all ways we are embracing the collective effort to decarbonize the global economy.

我們在全球範圍內減少廢物的承諾也與我們的氣候目標密切相關，因為收集更多的空包裝、使用更多的回收材料、減輕我們的瓶子重量和使用植物基材料，這些都是我們為全球經濟脫碳而共同努力的方式。

We strive to provide stakeholders with clear progress against our goals through our annual business and ESG report and our World Without Waste reports, including using the Global Reporting Initiative, SASB, and TCFD reporting frameworks as well as disclosures through other publicly available avenues like CDP and the Ellen MacArthur Foundation. We continuously revisit our ESG reporting and disclosures to ensure our leadership position. We do not take our responsibility lightly, and we carefully and thoroughly vet long-term objectives with our system partners and only commit new goals with a clear, actionable plan.

我們努力通過我們的年度業務和 ESG 報告以及我們的世界無浪費報告，包括使用全球報告倡議、SASB 和 TCFD 報告框架以及通過其他公開渠道（如 CDP 和艾倫麥克阿瑟基金會。我們不斷重新審視我們的 ESG 報告和披露，以確保我們的領導地位。我們不會輕率地承擔責任，我們會與系統合作夥伴仔細徹底地審查長期目標，並僅通過明確、可操作的計劃來承諾新目標。

To ensure we remain transparent and responsive to this evolving landscape, we'd like to invite you to join us for our virtual ESG event on November 3, where key business and sustainability leaders will provide an update on our initiatives and answer your questions.

為確保我們對這一不斷變化的環境保持透明和快速響應，我們誠邀您參加 11 月 3 日舉行的虛擬 ESG 活動，主要業務和可持續發展領導者將提供有關我們舉措的最新信息並回答您的問題。

As we look at our year-to-date performance as a system, it's clear that we are emerging stronger from the pandemic, delivering solid results under a more network structure.

當我們將年初至今的表現視為一個系統時，很明顯，我們正在從大流行中變得更加強大，在更加網絡化的結構下取得了可靠的成果。

Now I'll turn the call to John to discuss our third quarter results, our updated outlook and some initial thoughts about 2022.

現在我將打電話給約翰，討論我們第三季度的業績、我們更新的展望以及對 2022 年的一些初步想法。

Thank you, James.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。

In the third quarter, we delivered another set of strong results, building on the momentum we've seen this year. Our Q3 organic revenue was up 14% with concentrate shipments up 8% and price/mix up 6%. Price/mix was led by strong pricing in North America and Latin America and further improvement in away-from-home channels in many markets.

在第三季度，我們在今年看到的勢頭的基礎上取得了另一套強勁的業績。我們第三季度的有機收入增長了 14%，精礦出貨量增長了 8%，價格/混合增長了 6%。價格/組合的主導因素是北美和拉丁美洲的強勁定價以及許多市場的非家庭渠道的進一步改善。

Unit case growth was 6% with absolute unit cases ahead of 2019 levels for the first time this year and a sequential improvement versus the second quarter on a 2-year basis. Concentrate shipment outpaced unit cases in the quarter due to inventory build by some of our bottling partners to manage through near-term disruption.

單位案件增長率為 6%，絕對單位案件今年首次超過 2019 年的水平，並且與第二季度相比連續兩年有所改善。由於我們的一些裝瓶合作夥伴建立了庫存以應對近期的中斷，本季度的集中出貨量超過了單位案件。

Comparable gross margin for the quarter was up approximately 160 basis points versus prior year driven by pricing in the market, positive mix and timing of shipments. Despite some pressure points in the supply chain, we're successfully pulling the levers at our disposal to mitigate impacts to the best of our ability.

在市場定價、積極組合和出貨時間的推動下，本季度的可比毛利率與去年同期相比上升了約 160 個基點。儘管供應鏈中存在一些壓力點，但我們成功地拉動了我們可以使用的槓桿，盡我們所能減輕影響。

We continued to invest as many markets reopened during the quarter and significantly stepped up our marketing dollars versus prior year. As a result, our comparable operating margin compressed by 40 basis points year-over-year, more than offsetting the flow-through from the strong top line.

隨著許多市場在本季度重新開放，我們繼續投資，與去年相比，我們的營銷資金顯著增加。結果，我們的可比營業利潤率同比壓縮了 40 個基點，遠遠抵消了強勁收入的流入。

Below operating income, we saw some leverage come through from the other income line and a lower tax rate for the quarter that was driven by our updated effective tax rate for the full year to 18.6% from 19.1% previously.

在營業收入之下，我們看到來自其他收入線的一些槓桿作用以及由於我們更新的全年有效稅率從之前的 19.1% 降至 18.6% 的本季度較低的稅率。

Putting all of this together, third quarter comparable earnings per share of $0.65 was an increase of 18% year-over-year, including a 3-point benefit from currency. We also delivered strong year-to-date free cash flow of $8.5 billion.

綜上所述，第三季度每股可比收益為 0.65 美元，同比增長 18%，其中包括 3 個百分點的貨幣收益。我們還實現了強勁的年初至今自由現金流 85 億美元。

Given our strong results and with 1 quarter remaining, we have good visibility and are raising guidance for the full year. We now expect to deliver organic revenue growth of 13% to 14%, which is at the high end of our previously provided range, and comparable EPS growth of 15% to 17% in 2021.

鑑於我們的強勁業績和剩餘 1 個季度，我們有良好的知名度，並正在提高全年的指導。我們現在預計將實現 13% 至 14% 的有機收入增長，這是我們之前提供的範圍的高端，2021 年可比每股收益增長 15% 至 17%。

Our updated guidance for free cash flow of approximately $10.5 billion represent significant progress over the past few years and particularly during the COVID era. This progress is further dimensionalized as follows: We expect to achieve this year a dividend payout ratio below our long-term target of 75% of free cash flow for the time since 2015; we anticipate delivering another year of free cash flow conversion above 100%; and finally, our expected free cash flow has almost doubled since 2017.

我們對大約 105 億美元的自由現金流的更新指導代表了過去幾年的重大進展，尤其是在 COVID 時代。這一進展進一步細分如下：我們預計今年的股息支付率將低於我們自 2015 年以來 75% 的自由現金流的長期目標；我們預計一年的自由現金流轉換率將超過 100%；最後，我們預期的自由現金流自 2017 年以來幾乎翻了一番。

Our improving cash flow position will allow us to be even more vigorous in pursuit of our capital allocation priorities: first and foremost, to invest in our business; secondly, continuing our track record to grow our dividend; thirdly, to seek opportune M&A; and finally, with excess cash to repurchase our shares.

我們不斷改善的現金流狀況將使我們更加積極地追求我們的資本配置優先事項：首先，投資於我們的業務；其次，繼續我們的業績記錄以增加我們的股息；三是尋求併購時機；最後，用多餘的現金回購我們的股票。

So as we think about Q4, a few things to keep in mind. One, the recovery phase looks different around the world, and we expect that to continue. Two, we continue to see a minimal commodity impact due to hedges we have in place for the remainder of the year. Three, from a marketing perspective, we expect to increase consumer-facing marketing spend toward levels similar to 2019 while improving the quality of that spend and allocating it in a more targeted manner. Four, our currency outlook continues to contemplate a tailwind of 1% to 2% to the top line and approximately 2% to 3% to comparable EPS in 2021 based on current spot rates and our hedge position. Last but not least, our current full year guidance has built in the leveling out of our concentrate shipments that are running ahead year-to-date due to timing considering that we have 6 fewer days in the fourth quarter.

因此，當我們考慮第四季度時，需要牢記幾件事。第一，世界各地的複蘇階段看起來不同，我們預計這種情況會持續下去。第二，由於我們在今年剩餘時間內實施了對沖，我們繼續看到對商品的影響很小。第三，從營銷的角度來看，我們預計將面向消費者的營銷支出增加到與 2019 年相似的水平，同時提高支出的質量並以更有針對性的方式進行分配。第四，根據當前的即期匯率和我們的對沖頭寸，我們的貨幣前景繼續考慮到 2021 年收入增長 1% 至 2% 和可比每股收益約 2% 至 3%。最後但並非最不重要的一點是，考慮到我們在第四季度的天數減少了 6 天，我們目前的全年指導已經建立了我們的精礦出貨量的平衡，這些出貨量由於時間安排而今年迄今正在提前運行。

It's not typical for us to provide commentary on the year ahead at this stage, but I would like to highlight a few points regarding 2022 given the dynamics we are already seeing. While there are puts and takes to consider from the pandemic looking into next year, we're confident in the underlying top line trajectory, supported by our transformation work, our innovation agenda and a more efficient and effective approach to marketing.

在這個階段對來年發表評論並不常見，但鑑於我們已經看到的動態，我想強調關於 2022 年的幾點。雖然從大流行到明年有一些考慮因素，但在我們的轉型工作、創新議程和更高效、更有效的營銷方法的支持下，我們對潛在的頂線軌跡充滿信心。

Along with this ongoing momentum in revenues, we also expect to see some higher costs. We are not immune to the commodity inflation that has been impacting the world for the better part of 2021 nor the rapidly changing environment. We've been successful with hedges that were put in place to mitigate the impact of input cost inflation, and those will begin to roll off in 2022.

隨著收入的持續增長，我們還預計會看到一些更高的成本。我們不能倖免於在 2021 年大部分時間影響世界的商品通脹和快速變化的環境。我們已經成功實施了對沖措施，以減輕投入成本通脹的影響，這些措施將在 2022 年開始減少。

Based on current rates and hedge position, we'd expect commodity inflation to have a mid-single-digit impact on our cost of goods sold in 2022. We've been proactively accelerating our revenue growth management and productivity levers to offset some of this pressure as we look out to next year. And we're closely monitoring the moving parts in the supply chain to ensure we are well positioned to meet demand.

根據目前的利率和對沖頭寸，我們預計商品通脹將對我們在 2022 年的銷售成本產生中個位數的影響。我們一直在積極加速我們的收入增長管理和生產力槓桿，以抵消其中的一些影響我們展望明年的壓力。我們正在密切監控供應鏈中的活動部分，以確保我們能夠很好地滿足需求。

Moving to marketing dollars. We'll continue to invest purposefully in our brands and markets to support top line growth with spend more heavily weighted toward consumer-facing activity.

轉向營銷美元。我們將繼續有目的地投資於我們的品牌和市場，以支持收入增長，並將更多的支出用於面向消費者的活動。

Regarding currency, if we were to assume current rates and our hedge position, there would be an approximate 2- to 3-point currency headwind to revenue and a 2- to 3-point headwind to earnings for the full year 2022. Of course, volatility remains and several factors could have an impact on our currency outlook between now and February.

關於貨幣，如果我們假設當前匯率和我們的對沖頭寸，那麼 2022 年全年的收入和收益將受到大約 2 到 3 個百分點的貨幣逆風和 2 到 3 個百分點的逆風。當然，從現在到 2 月，波動性依然存在，有幾個因素可能對我們的貨幣前景產生影響。

Overall, as vaccinations continue to progress globally, we are in a better position today to navigate this environment, and we feel good about the potential for our business. We look forward to coming back with more specific items after the fourth quarter.

總體而言，隨著疫苗接種在全球範圍內不斷取得進展，我們今天處於更好的位置來駕馭這種環境，我們對我們的業務潛力感到滿意。我們期待在第四季度之後帶來更多具體的項目。

In closing, I'd like to acknowledge the more than 700,000 men and women of the Coca-Cola system whose tremendous dedication and hard work have been instrumental to delivering the strong results in the first 9 months of the year. The alignment of our system and its deft navigation through a challenging supply environment and an asynchronous pandemic recovery have been key enablers to emerging stronger. We're confident in our updated guidance and our ability to further leverage our strong capabilities to drive sustainable top line growth and maximize returns.

最後，我要感謝可口可樂系統的 700,000 多名男性和女性，他們的巨大奉獻和辛勤工作有助於在今年前 9 個月取得強勁的業績。我們系統的調整及其在充滿挑戰的供應環境中的靈巧導航和異步的大流行恢復是變得更強大的關鍵推動力。我們對我們更新的指導以及我們進一步利用我們強大的能力來推動可持續的收入增長和最大化回報的能力充滿信心。

With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

有了這個，接線員，我們準備好回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Bryan Spillane。

I appreciate the commentary on the cadence through the quarter and even giving us a little bit of some pieces to look at '22. But if we can just -- I think one of the questions we're getting now is just kind of the business momentum and maybe how it's come at the -- progressed as we move into the fourth quarter.

我很欣賞對整個季度節奏的評論，甚至給了我們一些片段來看看 '22。但是，如果我們可以——我認為我們現在遇到的一個問題就是業務勢頭，也許它是如何產生的——隨著我們進入第四季度，我們正在取得進展。

So maybe if you could give a little bit more color on just how you're seeing the business currently. And also just some perspective on how you see that momentum going into '22 given not just the pandemic but also inflation and pricing. And so just some context as to how the business is going so far this quarter but also just your perspective on that going into '22.

因此，也許您可以就您目前對業務的看法提供更多色彩。還有一些關於你如何看待這種勢頭進入 22 年的觀點，不僅是大流行，還有通貨膨脹和定價。所以只是一些關於本季度到目前為止業務進展情況的背景信息，還有你對進入 22 年的看法。

Sure, Bryan. Firstly, we clearly have been executing against our emerging stronger strategy. And you can see that coming through. We've called out that the third quarter was the first quarter to be growing versus -- in a full quarter versus 2019. So a sequential improvement as we've been going through this year from the first half, which was below 2019, to the third quarter, which was above it. So it's clearly sequential improvement coming through as we have adapted our ability to cope with the ups and downs of the lockdowns and the reopenings.

當然，布萊恩。首先，我們顯然一直在執行我們新興的更強大的戰略。你可以看到這一點。我們已經指出，與 2019 年相比，第三季度是整個季度增長的第一季度。因此，從今年上半年（低於 2019 年）到今年的連續改善第三季度，高於它。因此，隨著我們調整了應對封鎖和重新開放的起起落落的能力，這顯然是連續的改進。

Now in the quarter, as you say, we called out that July started well, and then August was softer as there were more lockdowns, and then September was better. When you think about where that's going in the fourth quarter and into next year, I mean, clearly, the fact that we have raised or clarified guidance on revenue to be the top end of the range, should lead you to feel confident that we see visibility in the downhill of the rest of this year.

正如您所說，現在在本季度，我們指出 7 月開局良好，然後由於更多的封鎖措施而 8 月較為疲軟，然後 9 月更好。當你考慮到第四季度和明年的情況時，我的意思是，很明顯，我們已經提高或澄清了收入指導以成為該範圍的高端這一事實，應該讓你相信我們看到在今年餘下時間的下坡中能見度。

October has started strong and in line with expectations, so we feel good that the momentum is there. I mean I've made the caveat, as many other people have done through COVID, that who knows what could happen in the downhill with variants and with lockdowns. But at the moment, what we see is the momentum is there. We feel good about our top line guidance for the year, and October backs up that statement.

10 月開局強勁且符合預期，因此我們對勢頭的存在感到滿意。我的意思是我已經提出警告，正如許多其他人通過 COVID 所做的那樣，誰知道在下坡時會發生什麼變化和鎖定。但目前，我們看到的是勢頭在那裡。我們對今年的頂級指導感覺良好，十月支持這一說法。

And then as it goes through 2022, obviously too early to call the full year next year, and we will do so in February. But again, we -- in the comments -- in the press release, in John's comments, we said we feel that we have momentum in the business. Again, the caveats of who knows what'll happen with variants and potential lockdowns, but we do see the world emerging from the crisis a bit like an earthquake. You get more aftershocks, but the consequent aftershocks tend to be smaller than the early ones. And that's kind of how we see 2022. So we feel there's good momentum and the strategy is working, and it's getting us back on track.

然後隨著 2022 年的過去，明年要宣布全年顯然還為時過早，我們將在 2 月這樣做。但同樣，我們 - 在評論中 - 在新聞稿中，在約翰的評論中，我們說我們覺得我們在業務上有動力。同樣，誰知道變體和潛在的封鎖會發生什麼的警告，但我們確實看到世界從危機中擺脫出來有點像地震。你會得到更多的餘震，但隨之而來的餘震往往比早期的餘震小。這就是我們對 2022 年的看法。所以我們覺得勢頭很好，戰略正在奏效，它讓我們重回正軌。

Your next question is from the line of Lauren Lieberman with Barclays.

您的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Lauren Lieberman。

I wanted to just talk a little bit more maybe about supply chain. Last quarter, you talked about isolated pressure points and definitely offered commentary to say that you're able to tap into supplier relationships and so on.

我想多談談供應鏈。上個季度，您談到了孤立的壓力點，並明確提出評論說您能夠利用供應商關係等。

But I was just curious, I guess, A, what's the thought that bottlers continue to try to build inventory not just in advance of 4Q but even looking into '22 that you kind of maintain this disconnect between concentrate shipments and unit case volume? But also, just talk a little bit on the packaging side of things and what the system is able to do to have better access to the range of packaging options. Because I know things have been tight all year, but it sounds like they're getting worse. And so just curious what you could offer us on what you guys are doing to be able to manage through that so well.

但我只是好奇，我猜，A，裝瓶商繼續嘗試建立庫存的想法是什麼，不僅是在第四季度之前，甚至在 22 年的時候，你仍然保持濃縮物出貨量和單位箱量之間的這種脫節？而且，只談一點關於包裝方面的事情，以及系統能夠做些什麼來更好地訪問各種包裝選項。因為我知道事情一整年都很緊張，但聽起來情況變得更糟了。所以只是好奇你們可以為我們提供什麼關於你們正在做的事情，以便能夠很好地度過難關。

Sure, Lauren. Yes, I'm not sure I used the word isolated last quarter, but I know what you mean. Look, firstly, we have a lot of capability on managing through crises. This may be a unique and global one, but most managers and leaders at Coke have sometime in their career managed a part of the world or a country that's gone through severe dislocation. And so we have built capability over the years to manage through this and in particular in the supply chains, organizations of the company and with the bottlers.

當然，勞倫。是的，我不確定我在上個季度使用了孤立這個詞，但我知道你的意思。看，首先，我們有很多應對危機的能力。這可能是一個獨特的全球性事件，但可口可樂的大多數經理和領導者在其職業生涯中都曾管理過世界上的某個地區或一個經歷了嚴重混亂的國家。因此，多年來我們已經建立了管理能力，特別是在供應鏈、公司組織和裝瓶商方面。

And so we have strong capabilities. We look for long-term partnerships with the ecosystem of the supply chains, whether that's imports, materials or logistics. We also act as a system in a number of regards. We have something called the Cross Enterprise Procurement Group, which buys key commodities on behalf of the company and the bottlers. So there's a great deal of coordination between ourselves and the bottlers.

所以我們有很強的能力。我們尋求與供應鏈生態系統的長期合作夥伴關係，無論是進口、材料還是物流。在許多方面，我們也作為一個系統。我們有一個叫做跨企業採購小組的東西，它代表公司和裝瓶商購買關鍵商品。所以我們和裝瓶商之間有很多協調。

In terms of the problems, it's a bit like whack-a-mole. Things pop up. We've talked previously about can pressure in the U.S. Self-evidently, there's issues in shipping and freight and availability of labor in places. Then you get one that pops up. The price of gas spikes in Europe, and the availability of CO2 comes under pressure. There was -- a PET plant went offline because it burst into flames in Brazil, et cetera, et cetera.

就問題而言，它有點像打地鼠。事情浮出水面。我們之前已經討論過美國的壓力。不言而喻，運輸和貨運以及當地勞動力的可用性存在問題。然後你會得到一個彈出的。歐洲的天然氣價格飆升，二氧化碳的供應面臨壓力。有——一家 PET 工廠因在巴西起火而下線，等等。

So there is a heightened degree of sporadic problems appearing as well as kind of structural shortages of certain ingredients. But we have global scale, we have global coordination and we have long-term relationships with many of our ecosystem partners that are allowing us to manage and offset what's going on.

因此，出現了更高程度的零星問題以及某些成分的結構性短缺。但我們有全球規模，我們有全球協調，我們與許多生態系統合作夥伴有長期關係，這使我們能夠管理和抵消正在發生的事情。

Now as regards the bottler inventory towards the end of the year, clearly we're working with the bottlers. And obviously, they can have the comfort and assurance that they don't necessarily need to hold it in their hands for us to be certain of having it as a system. We, obviously, ourselves being a kind of a key -- the key player in providing the concentrate make sure we have enough buffered availability of ingredients and concentrate to make sure the bottlers are going to be in a good position, and we manage that accordingly with them in every year and particularly this one.

現在關於今年年底的裝瓶商庫存，顯然我們正在與裝瓶商合作。顯然，他們可以放心和保證，他們不一定需要將其握在手中，我們才能確定將其作為一個系統。顯然，我們自己是一種關鍵——提供濃縮物的關鍵參與者確保我們有足夠的緩衝原料和濃縮物，以確保裝瓶商處於有利位置，我們會相應地進行管理每年都和他們在一起，尤其是這一年。

Your next question is from the line of Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian。

The thoughts around top line and volume recovery you mentioned earlier for 2022 were helpful. Can you spend a bit more time discussing the pricing environment that you're seeing also in the U.S., other developed markets and then in the developing markets? Obviously, we're seeing a pretty unique spike in commodity costs in terms of the magnitude. So how is your system approaching pricing in this environment given that unique level of increase?

您之前提到的 2022 年收入和銷量恢復的想法很有幫助。您能否多花點時間討論一下您在美國、其他發達市場以及發展中市場也看到的定價環境？顯然，就幅度而言，我們看到商品成本出現了非常獨特的飆升。那麼，鑑於這種獨特的增長水平，您的系統在這種環境下如何接近定價？

And specifically for Coca-Cola itself, is the expectation that pricing can generally fully offset commodity increases on a dollar-for-dollar basis ex any demand elasticity secondary impact given you don't have as much commodity exposure as the entire system and -- but share in the retail pricing moves?

特別是對可口可樂本身而言，預期定價通常可以完全抵消商品價格的上漲，不包括任何需求彈性的次要影響，因為您沒有像整個系統那樣多的商品敞口，而且——但分享零售定價舉措？

And then also maybe can you just detail the competitive pricing environment you're seeing from your key competitors?

然後也許你能詳細說明你從主要競爭對手那裡看到的競爭定價環境嗎？

I'm pretty sure that adds up to more than one question, but I'll give it a go, Dara.

我很確定這加起來不止一個問題，但我會試一試，達拉。

Multipart.

多部分。

Yes, multipart. First point, we -- as a matter of course, I mean, there's inflation every year. But we approach it from the point of view of going, our brands need to earn the right to adjust their prices each year, whether that be because of the marketing, the innovation, the execution, the investment in the marketplace or the pressure on COGS or the pressure on labor inflation. So as you can see from our numbers, I mean, we are pulling all the levers of price and mix and marketing innovation each and every year. And so that is the starting point as we think forward into 2022.

是的，多部分。首先，我們——當然，我的意思是，每年都有通貨膨脹。但我們從前進的角度來看，我們的品牌需要獲得每年調整價格的權利，無論是因為營銷、創新、執行、市場投資還是 COGS 的壓力或勞動力通脹壓力。因此，從我們的數據中可以看出，我的意思是，我們每年都在拉動價格、組合和營銷創新的所有槓桿。這就是我們展望 2022 年的起點。

Secondly, we see the environment of pricing, example the U.S. and largely everywhere else, as pretty rational, whether that be what competitors are doing or what the retailers are doing with their own label brands. And so we see our approach as earning the right to take the price that creates value for ourselves, the system and creates value for the retailers and creates value for the consumers. And that's our starting point.

其次，我們認為定價環境（例如美國和其他大部分地區）非常合理，無論是競爭對手正在做的事情，還是零售商對自己的品牌品牌所做的事情。因此，我們認為我們的方法是贏得為我們自己、系統創造價值、為零售商創造價值和為消費者創造價值的價格的權利。這就是我們的出發點。

Yes, we did take an off-cycle increase in the U.S., obviously, slightly different by brand and by pack but certainly in the high single digits starting in August. The elasticities were perhaps a little better than they were last time. You may remember the -- whatever it was, 4 or 5 years ago, we took an off-cycle price increase in the U.S. when there was a very strong adjustments in the logistics market in the U.S. that caused everyone a great deal of problems. And so we passed that through this time, and we will be looking at exactly what level our pricing needs to be for 2022. But again, the COGS input -- the COGS push-through is a piece of the puzzle, and we certainly intend to earn the right to take the pricing for the brands and the packaging and beyond.

是的，我們確實在美國進行了非週期增長，顯然，品牌和包裝略有不同，但從 8 月開始肯定會達到高個位數。彈性可能比上次好一點。你可能還記得——不管是什麼，4、5年前，我們在美國進行了非週期價格上漲，當時美國物流市場發生了非常強烈的調整，給大家帶來了很多問題。所以我們這次通過了，我們將看看我們的定價需要在 2022 年達到什麼水平。但同樣，COGS 輸入——COGS 推進是一個難題，我們當然打算獲得為品牌和包裝及其他產品定價的權利。

And that is true in other parts of the world. I mean obviously, depending in the emerging markets, on the level of inflation in the marketplace, you've got some double-digit inflation in places where there might be more than one price increase during the year. But in the other developed markets, again, you see this approach of earning the right to take the price based on the brand, the pack, the occasion, the channel and really driving that through.

在世界其他地方也是如此。我的意思是，顯然，在新興市場，根據市場的通脹水平，在一年中價格上漲可能不止一次的地方，你會出現一些兩位數的通脹。但在其他發達市場，你再次看到這種根據品牌、包裝、場合、渠道獲得定價權的方法，並真正推動了這一點。

Your next question is from the line of Steve Powers with Deutsche Bank.

您的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Steve Powers。

Maybe pivoting back to volume for a minute. You mentioned, obviously, that 3Q volumes finished ahead of '19 for the first time since the pandemic started, which is obviously a happy achievement. I guess what I'm wondering is if there's a way to sort of frame where 3Q volumes finished indexed to '19 in terms of at-home versus away-from-home or future consumption versus immediate consumption.

也許會轉回音量一分鐘。您顯然提到，自大流行開始以來，第三季度的交易量首次在 19 年之前完成，這顯然是一個令人高興的成就。我想我想知道的是，是否有一種方法可以確定 3Q 成交量在家庭與外出或未來消費與即時消費方面的指數為 '19。

I guess I'm trying to get a better sense conceptually of how much further runway there may be in the away-from-home amid the consumption side of the business recovering, which obviously has both volume implications but also beneficial price/mix implications. Is there a right way to frame -- a right way to think about that from your perspective?

我想我正試圖從概念上更好地了解在業務復甦的消費方面可能會有多遠的跑道，這顯然既有數量影響，也有有利的價格/組合影響。有沒有正確的構圖方式——從你的角度來思考這個問題的正確方式？

Yes, sure. As you say, look, so Q3 is above 2019 in volume. If I look at the mix of the business between away-from-home and at-home, the away-from-home has not yet recovered to the same share of mix that it was in 2019. And so, of course, implicit in your questions is, is that a tailwind going forward as more of the away-from-home recovers because of either the package or the brand or the occasion that is related to it? And the answer in some extent is yes.

是的，當然。正如你所說，看，第三季度的數量高於 2019 年。如果我看一下離家和在家之間的業務組合，離家還沒有恢復到與 2019 年相同的比例。因此，當然，隱含在你的問題是，隨著越來越多的離家出走的人因為包裝、品牌或與之相關的場合而恢復，是否會順風順水？在某種程度上，答案是肯定的。

Now worth bearing in mind but it's not a snapback, which is what you're seeing. It's not just a function of lockdown, and when the lockdown ends, the away-from-home comes back. I think we're seeing an evolution of the landscape. You're going to see some -- of course, away-from-home is a series of -- a whole set of sub-channels. You're going to see some of those sub-channels where actually, over the last 2 years, almost 2 years now, there's been a reduction in the number of outlets. And so our hypothesis is it will take time to see those outlets re-expand, reappear. And so it won't -- just because the lockdown ends doesn't mean the outlet reappears, but we'll see some of that.

現在值得牢記，但這不是回彈，這就是您所看到的。這不僅僅是鎖定的功能，當鎖定結束時，遠離家鄉的人又回來了。我認為我們正在看到景觀的演變。你會看到一些——當然，遠離家鄉是一系列——一整套子頻道。您將看到其中一些子渠道實際上在過去 2 年中，現在幾乎 2 年，網點數量有所減少。所以我們的假設是，這些網點重新擴張、重新出現需要時間。所以它不會——僅僅因為鎖定結束並不意味著出口重新出現，但我們會看到其中的一些。

But of course, there'll be some channels that are not yet fully open, much of travel and kind of hospitality. There are a whole series of sub-channels that are still running far below their 2019 levels.

但是，當然，還有一些尚未完全開放的渠道，主要是旅行和款待。有一整套子頻道的運行仍遠低於 2019 年的水平。

So yes, it's a headwind -- it's a tailwind going into the future, but it's not dependent just on the end of lockdowns. And I think it will -- if you imagine a curve, we've got -- we're -- the snapback has happened, and now it's going to be a little more of a smoothing of the curve to recover the rest of the away-from-home. Because in part, people's habits have changed. Like I said, it's an evolving landscape. I mean what degree of more permanent at-home working are we going to see? Not quite clear. So I think we've got a big piece of it, let's say, half of it back of the mix, and there's another half to come. But it won't come overnight, it'll come over time.

所以，是的，這是一個逆風——它是未來的順風，但它不僅僅取決於封鎖的結束。我認為它會 - 如果你想像一條曲線，我們已經 - 我們 - 已經發生了回彈，現在它將更加平滑曲線以恢復其餘部分離開家。部分原因是人們的習慣發生了變化。就像我說的，這是一個不斷發展的景觀。我的意思是，我們將看到什麼樣程度的更永久的在家工作？不太清楚。所以我認為我們已經得到了很大一部分，比方說，一半的混合，還有另一半要來。但它不會在一夜之間到來，它會隨著時間的推移而到來。

Your next question is from the line of Nik Modi with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

James, I was hoping you can kind of give us an update on the reorg and all the changes that were made. I mean do you have all the right people in the right seats now? And how is the organization adjusting to kind of the new decision-making matrix? If you could just provide us an update there. Just some of the feedback that I've gotten is that there are still some bugs being worked out, so I'm just trying to get a better understanding of timing on when you think you'll kind of be optimally running under this new network structure.

詹姆斯，我希望你能給我們提供有關重組的最新信息以及所做的所有更改。我的意思是你現在有合適的人在合適的座位上嗎？組織如何適應新的決策矩陣？如果你能在那裡向我們提供更新。我得到的一些反饋是仍然有一些錯誤正在解決，所以我只是想更好地了解你認為你會在這個新網絡下以最佳方式運行的時間結構體。

I'm not sure I would ever call us arriving at the destination optimally running because by the time we get there, something else will have changed in the world, and we'll need to make some tweaks and evolve.

我不確定我是否會稱我們以最佳方式到達目的地，因為當我們到達那裡時，世界上會發生其他事情，我們需要進行一些調整和發展。

Certainly, we stood up the organization in the first quarter, and then -- and it was off to a good start. It's very much on track with our expectations. As you say, one would expect there's to be some bugs and some kinks that need to be worked out, and that is what we're going through at the moment.

當然，我們在第一季度建立了組織，然後——這是一個良好的開端。它非常符合我們的期望。正如你所說，人們會期望會有一些錯誤和一些需要解決的問題，這就是我們目前正在經歷的事情。

And it's not that all of the change has happened yet. We're -- we've been running a -- Manuel and the marketing team have been running a big agency review through this year. We're coming up on the final decisions on that in the fourth quarter, which will start bringing a structural amount of change next year in the way we interact in our marketing, kind of the enabling spend ecosystem. So there'll be more change, and we will continue to that.

並不是所有的變化都已經發生了。我們 - 我們一直在運行 - Manuel 和營銷團隊今年一直在運行大型機構審查。我們將在第四季度做出最終決定，這將在明年開始為我們在營銷中的互動方式帶來結構性變化，這是一種支持支出的生態系統。所以會有更多的變化，我們將繼續這樣做。

So we're focused on working out the bugs of the bits we've already stood up. We'll be bringing more change in terms of how we get the marketing sorted out next year. And I'm sure things will happen in the marketplace that will cause us to want to make further evolutions. But we're -- we certainly see that the early signs of how the new organizational model can help us both deal and manage through the crisis, whether it's what we've done on the supply chain or the procurement, but also set us up. Ultimately, this is all about being an enabler to give us confidence in driving and delivering on our long-term growth algorithm.

所以我們專注於解決我們已經站起來的問題。我們將在明年的營銷方式方面帶來更多變化。而且我確信市場上會發生一些事情，這將導致我們想要進一步發展。但我們 - 我們當然看到了新組織模式如何幫助我們應對和管理危機的早期跡象，無論是我們在供應鏈還是採購方面所做的，但也為我們奠定了基礎.最終，這一切都是為了讓我們有信心推動和實現我們的長期增長算法。

Your next question is from the line of Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

您的下一個問題來自高盛集團的 Bonnie Herzog。

I was actually hoping you guys could talk about whether or not you have a competitive advantage during a period of rising input and transportation costs relative to your peers given your asset-light or asset-right refranchise model. I guess I'm thinking about this in the context of your preliminary outlook for FY '22 as it relates to COGS pressures.

實際上，我希望你們能談談在投入和運輸成本上升的時期，鑑於你們的輕資產或資產權再特許經營模式，你們是否具有競爭優勢。我想我正在考慮您對 22 財年的初步展望，因為它與 COGS 壓力有關。

And then curious to hear, I guess, how you're working with your bottlers who really are experiencing pretty sharp cost pressures to essentially help them navigate through this tough environment.

然後很想知道，我想，你是如何與真正承受著相當大的成本壓力的裝瓶商合作的，以從根本上幫助他們度過這個艱難的環境。

Yes. Let me start with the system here and then work back towards the company.

是的。讓我從這裡的系統開始，然後再回到公司。

Obviously, we're working with the bottlers on a collective basis and an individual and country basis. And I draw the distinction because on a collective basis, as I mentioned earlier, we have a unit called the Cross Enterprise Procurement Group, which works on behalf of the system globally, us and the major bottlers, to procure the key input costs, whether it be resin, aluminum, sweeteners or whatever it would happen to be. And that's not just about buying, it's about the hedges and the pricing and the security of supply. So there's a tremendous activity in coordination with the bottlers on the principal input costs.

顯然，我們在集體、個人和國家的基礎上與裝瓶商合作。我之所以做出區分是因為在集體基礎上，正如我之前提到的，我們有一個稱為跨企業採購小組的單位，它代表全球系統、我們和主要裝瓶商工作，以採購關鍵投入成本，無論是它是樹脂、鋁、甜味劑或任何可能發生的東西。這不僅僅是關於購買，而是關於對沖、定價和供應安全。因此，在主要投入成本方面與裝瓶商進行了巨大的協調。

Then, of course, we work locally with the bottlers in the countries, taking into account all the other factors that go into kind of how we might want to approach pricing, whether that's the other costs, the more local costs, logistics, labor, et cetera, et cetera. And our agenda for marketing and innovation and execution, RGM, and come up with a plan to make sure that we drive that into the marketplace and that the brands earn the right for the pricing that keeps them attractive to the retailers, attractive to the consumers and drives the business for us.

然後，當然，我們在當地與這些國家的裝瓶商合作，考慮到我們可能希望如何處理定價的所有其他因素，無論是其他成本，更多的本地成本，物流，勞動力，等等等等。以及我們的營銷、創新和執行議程，RGM，並製定一個計劃，以確保我們將其推向市場，並確保品牌獲得定價權，使它們對零售商有吸引力，對消費者有吸引力並為我們推動業務。

And then obviously, within that, the company itself has a skew to certain ingredients because we're asset light or we own more of certain businesses like the juice business vertically integrated in the U.S. and within as well in Europe than necessarily aluminum. So we do have an exposure to input cost, which is why we've called out what we've called out.

然後很明顯，在這其中，公司本身對某些成分有偏向，因為我們是輕資產，或者我們擁有更多的某些業務，比如在美國和歐洲垂直整合的果汁業務，而不是鋁。所以我們確實有投入成本的風險，這就是為什麼我們提出了我們已經提出的要求。

I think the competitive advantage is not whether the company necessarily is asset light or not or has only certain commodities. Ultimately, we're a system with our bottlers where the pricing is taken by the bottler and then the company follows that along. I think the advantage is the global scale, the experience in managing through these environments and the ability to work with the supply ecosystem and create value for the retailers and the consumers.

我認為競爭優勢不在於公司是否一定是輕資產或是否只有某些商品。最終，我們是一個裝瓶商的系統，定價由裝瓶商負責，然後公司隨之跟進。我認為優勢在於全球規模、在這些環境中管理的經驗以及與供應生態系統合作並為零售商和消費者創造價值的能力。

Your next question is from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala with Crédit Suisse.

您的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Could I please follow up on Bonnie's question as it relates to the incidence pricing model and maybe some of the new models that were put in, in recent years? How does it work in this environment? Because the pricing is, of course, still taken by the bottlers, but the -- I guess, the relative price inflation or the relative cost inflation is much higher at the bottler than it might be for yourselves.

我能否跟進 Bonnie 的問題，因為它與發病率定價模型以及近年來引入的一些新模型有關？它在這種環境下是如何工作的？因為定價當然仍然由裝瓶商承擔，但是 - 我猜，裝瓶商的相對價格通脹或相對成本通脹比你自己高得多。

I understand that you take it as a system. But how does that work from an incidence pricing perspective? Does it still hold in that you're able to follow on whatever the bottler does in the marketplace? Or are there tweaks being made for what right now seems to be a bit of an abnormal situation?

我明白你把它當作一個系統。但從發生率定價的角度來看，這如何運作？它是否仍然適用於您能夠跟隨裝瓶商在市場上所做的任何事情？或者是否正在針對現在似乎有點不正常的情況進行調整？

No, the incidence model works as the incidence model, and -- which, to be clear, is -- generally speaking, the company's revenue on any particular brand or package is a percent of what the bottler is getting. It's not the same percent necessarily on every brand or even every package, but it is a percent. And then over time, this has proven to be a great way of maintaining alignment and shared interest in driving value for the company and the bottler's local management.

不，發生率模型作為發生率模型起作用，而且——要明確的是——一般來說，公司在任何特定品牌或包裝上的收入是裝瓶商獲得的收入的百分比。每個品牌甚至每個包裝的百分比不一定相同，但它是一個百分比。然後隨著時間的推移，事實證明，這是一種很好的方式，可以在為公司和裝瓶商的當地管理層創造價值方面保持一致和共同利益。

So when we -- when a brand or a package or a channel or occasion grows, it's good for both the bottler and the company. And if we decide to push on something that's more affordable, it delivers less for the bottler and the company. So the incidence has proven to be a tremendous vehicle of getting the franchise system to focus on creating value in the marketplace.

因此，當我們——當一個品牌、一個包裝、一個渠道或一個場合增長時，這對裝瓶商和公司都有好處。如果我們決定推出更實惠的產品，它對裝瓶商和公司的貢獻就會減少。因此，事件已被證明是讓特許經營系統專注於在市場上創造價值的巨大工具。

Over time, in certain environments, it puts a -- the rest of the cost structure puts a little more pressure on the bottler or a little more pressure on the company depending on what's going on. But we don't cause micro course-correcting incidents for small problems or in potentially medium problems. We look at a holistic view of making sure the bottling system is structurally sound, has got the right capabilities, the right ownership and the right capacity to invest in the marketplace.

隨著時間的推移，在某些環境中，成本結構的其餘部分會給裝瓶商帶來更大的壓力，或者給公司帶來更大的壓力，這取決於正在發生的事情。但我們不會為小問題或潛在的中等問題引發微課程糾正事件。我們著眼於確保裝瓶系統結構合理、具有正確的能力、正確的所有權和正確的市場投資能力的整體觀點。

So it's something -- completely pushes the thing offtrack. We're in a different situation. Otherwise, we and the bottlers don't manage for the short term. Or we do manage the short term, but we think about it in the context of where we're going long term and manage through short-term effects.

所以它是一些東西——完全把它推離了軌道。我們處於不同的境地。否則，我們和裝瓶商在短期內無法應付。或者我們確實管理短期，但我們在長期發展的背景下考慮它並通過短期影響進行管理。

Your next question is from the line of Andrea Teixeira with JPMorgan.

您的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira。

James, I wanted to go back to your pricing commentary, if you can talk to your ability to continue to take pricing or if the actions you took so far, including the one you alluded to in North America in August, will suffice to mitigate the additional mid-single-digit cost pressures in 2022. And how do you see the balance in between bringing back promotions to historical levels into 2022 for the at-home consumption?

詹姆斯，我想回到你的定價評論，如果你能談談你繼續定價的能力，或者你迄今為止採取的行動，包括你在 8 月份在北美提到的行動，是否足以緩解2022 年將面臨額外的中個位數成本壓力。您如何看待將促銷活動恢復到 2022 年的歷史水平以供家庭消費之間的平衡？

Yes. Thanks. I mean obviously, we're not at the stage of providing an outlook on pricing and promotion levels in 2022. We'll do that when we get to February.

是的。謝謝。我的意思很明顯，我們還沒有對 2022 年的定價和促銷水平做出展望。我們會在 2 月時這樣做。

Certainly, what we did in North America addressed the immediate 2021 issues in North America, as we did in other parts of the world. Whether -- wherever it was in the world, we would have addressed the cost issues and the earned brand pricing issues wherever we were.

當然，正如我們在世界其他地區所做的那樣，我們在北美所做的工作解決了 2021 年在北美面臨的緊迫問題。是否——無論它在世界的哪個地方，無論我們身在何處，我們都會解決成本問題和贏得的品牌定價問題。

Again, I think the important thing, the pricing approach is to earn the right to take the pricing for the brands. They've earned that -- they earn that -- the equity earns the right for pricing, and that's a combination of bearing in mind the cost inflation, the input cost inflation, the labor costs, the logistics costs, what we need to invest in marketing, what we need to invest in innovation, what we need to invest in execution and what we need to invest in coolers and routes to market. And that all goes in the equation of taking the pricing that we have earned to take. And that is the same balancing equation that we will look at for 2022.

同樣，我認為重要的是，定價方法是為品牌贏得定價權。他們賺到了——他們賺到了——股權獲得了定價權，這是考慮到成本膨脹、投入成本膨脹、勞動力成本、物流成本以及我們需要投資的組合在營銷方面，我們需要在創新上投資什麼，我們需要在執行上投資什麼，以及我們需要在冷卻器和上市路線上投資什麼。而這一切都體現在我們已經獲得的定價等式中。這與我們將在 2022 年研究的平衡方程相同。

Your next question is from the line of Carlos Laboy with HSBC.

您的下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的 Carlos Laboy。

James, you mentioned strong U.S. pricing several times. And in our Southwestern U.S. markets, where recently we also saw a major step-up in revenue management execution from prepandemic levels, it's really sophisticated price pack structures that we're seeing.

詹姆斯，你多次提到美國的強勁定價。在我們的美國西南部市場，最近我們還看到收入管理執行從大流行前的水平有了重大提升，我們看到的是非常複雜的價格包結構。

Can you give us a more broad-based North American assessment of how you see the market development capability of the U.S. system improving over the next couple of years? And I guess what is the system going to be doing differently to keep driving this market development capability forward?

您能否就您如何看待未來幾年美國系統的市場開發能力提高給我們一個更廣泛的北美評估？我猜這個系統會做些什麼不同的事情來繼續推動這種市場開發能力的發展？

Yes, sure. Well, thank you for those observations, Carlos, on the visits, I'm presuming Texas or something like that.

是的，當然。嗯，謝謝你的這些觀察，卡洛斯，在訪問中，我假設德克薩斯或類似的地方。

The -- as you well know, as a long-time observer of Latin America, we certainly have been trying to fuse together what -- the best of what the U.S. system does with some imported thinking from Latin America on RGM and on-the-ground, up-and-down-the-street execution.

眾所周知，作為拉丁美洲的長期觀察者，我們當然一直在努力將美國系統所做的最好的事情與從拉丁美洲引進的關於 RGM 和-地面，上下街執行。

As we look forward into the U.S., clearly we're trying to bring the combination of more investment in the marketing of brands, more innovation targeted to the marketplace, backed with the increasing use of RGM to be more sophisticated in the price and the mix opportunity but also backed with ongoing improvements in the execution capability not just in the larger stores or with the larger away-from-home partners but also up and down the street with the smaller stores and really being within an arm's reach of desire. Not just perhaps an arm's reach of job but within a click's reach of desire. And I think the system is continuing to back that as we go forward.

當我們展望美國時，顯然我們正試圖將更多的品牌營銷投資、更多針對市場的創新結合起來，並以 RGM 的日益普及為後盾，以在價格和組合上更加複雜機會，但也支持執行能力的持續改進，不僅在較大的商店或較大的離家合作夥伴中，而且在街上和街道上與較小的商店一起使用，並且真正觸手可及。不僅僅是一臂之力的工作，而是在點擊的慾望範圍內。我認為隨著我們的前進，系統會繼續支持這一點。

Your next question is from the line of Robert Ottenstein with Evercore ISI.

您的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Robert Ottenstein。

First, just a quick point of clarification. If you could give the breakout of price/mix in LatAm. How much was price/mix and channel?

首先，只是一個快速的澄清點。如果你能給出拉美價格/組合的突破。價格/組合和渠道是多少？

And then my more substantive question. Some really great progress on the free cash flow side, significantly higher than your initial guidance. Can you talk about some of the drivers there? Are you where you need to be in terms of cash conversion at this point? And are these levels sustainable?

然後是我更實質性的問題。在自由現金流方面取得了一些非常大的進展，明顯高於您最初的指導。你能談談那裡的一些司機嗎？在這一點上，您是否需要現金轉換？這些水平是否可持續？

Sure. I'll do the 3 -- I'll do the price/mix, and then John can take the flowers and the laurels on doubling the free cash flow in the last few years.

當然。我會做 3 - 我會做價格/組合，然後約翰可以在過去幾年中將自由現金流翻一番，從而獲得鮮花和桂冠。

Price/mix in Latin America, clearly there's a big component of rate in the third quarter, and part of that is driven by inflationary pricing in Argentina. But in the quarter, channel and price/mix -- sorry, channel and package were both positive to mix, as was the timing of some of the deductions. And so yes, it is rather an anomaly.

拉丁美洲的價格/組合，顯然第三季度的利率佔很大一部分，其中一部分是由阿根廷的通貨膨脹定價驅動的。但是在本季度，渠道和價格/組合——抱歉，渠道和套餐都是積極的組合，一些扣減的時間也是如此。所以是的，這是一個反常現象。

I think particularly in the case -- I mean, it's generally true for the company that don't over-rotate to quarterly pricing, particularly in emerging markets where there can be a tremendous amount of volatility, because, obviously, we're quite far back in the supply chain. So I would encourage looking at places like Latin America on a kind of a more multi-quarter basis given the volatility that one can get in terms of price or mix given where we are in terms of what ships where. But generally speaking, there's a -- it's mainly operational price and mix and then there's a little piece that's inflation in Argentina. John?

我認為在這種情況下尤其如此——我的意思是，對於不會過度調整季度定價的公司來說，這通常是正確的，特別是在可能存在巨大波動的新興市場，因為顯然，我們相當遠在供應鏈中。因此，考慮到在價格或組合方面的波動性，考慮到我們所處的位置，我們會鼓勵在多季度的基礎上研究像拉丁美洲這樣的地方。但一般來說，有一個 - 主要是運營價格和組合，然後還有一點是阿根廷的通貨膨脹。約翰？

Thanks, James. Yes, on the free cash flow, clearly pleased with the progress we've made. Looking forward, a couple of observations on our free cash flow conversion.

謝謝，詹姆斯。是的，就自由現金流而言，顯然對我們取得的進展感到滿意。展望未來，關於我們的自由現金流轉換的一些觀察。

Our long-term algorithm has free cash flow conversion of 90% to 95% range, and I still believe that's the right level for us to be pitching at.

我們的長期算法有 90% 到 95% 範圍內的自由現金流轉換，我仍然相信這是我們應該投入的正確水平。

This year is better than that due to some specific items through the year. Our marketing accruals in '21 were much higher than '20 as the marketing spend returns to 2019 levels. Our incentive compensation was down for obvious reasons in 2020 due to the pandemic impact. We -- and as I mentioned on the call earlier, we anticipate some headwinds on ForEx going into '22. So taking all that into account, I would expect us to be still able to deliver against the range that we've outlined in the long-term algorithm.

由於全年的一些特定項目，今年比那更好。隨著營銷支出恢復到 2019 年的水平，我們在 21 年的營銷應計金額遠高於 20 年。由於大流行的影響，我們的激勵薪酬在 2020 年明顯下降。我們——正如我之前在電話會議上提到的，我們預計 ForEx 將在 22 年遇到一些阻力。因此，考慮到所有這些，我希望我們仍然能夠根據我們在長期算法中概述的範圍提供服務。

Some of the drivers, Robert, in the last couple of years, we've made a lot of progress on working capital. We've talked about that in the past. We continue to do so.

一些司機，羅伯特，在過去的幾年裡，我們在營運資金方面取得了很大進展。我們過去曾討論過這一點。我們繼續這樣做。

In a strange way, the one area that we are below where I would like to be is on inventory. But in a paradoxical way, that's been actually a good thing, to have more buffer around the world. And so in the immediate short term, I kind of like it that way. But it's an area that we will continue to attack over time in a number of areas.

以一種奇怪的方式，我們低於我想要的一個區域是庫存。但以一種自相矛盾的方式，這實際上是一件好事，在世界範圍內有更多的緩衝。所以在短期內，我有點喜歡這種方式。但隨著時間的推移，我們將在多個領域繼續攻擊這一領域。

Your next question is from the line of Sean King with UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的肖恩·金（Sean King）。

I wonder if I can get your thoughts on some of the puts and takes to your bottling system's DSD capabilities in the context of some of the pressure points that other CPGs are having in keeping store shelves stocked, particularly around the coming holiday season. I mean is it safe to say maybe you're absorbing some higher costs with the potential for share gains?

我想知道在其他 CPG 公司在保持商店貨架庫存方面所面臨的一些壓力點的背景下，特別是在即將到來的假期期間，我是否可以了解您對裝瓶系統的 DSD 功能的一些看法。我的意思是可以肯定地說，也許你正在吸收一些更高的成本並有可能獲得股票收益嗎？

Yes. Clearly, there is some pressure in the marketplace in terms of logistical capacity. And obviously, with the holiday season tending to see demand go up, that's going to come into sharper focus as we go into the next few months.

是的。顯然，市場在物流能力方面存在一定壓力。顯然，隨著假日季節的需求趨於上升，隨著我們進入接下來的幾個月，這將成為人們更加關注的焦點。

We are well set up. I think we are advantaged competitively. I would like to see us, as you say, make gains in not just the share of the visible inventory but in the share of the sell-out as well.

我們設置得很好。我認為我們在競爭中具有優勢。正如您所說，我希望看到我們不僅在有形庫存的份額上而且在售罄的份額上都獲得收益。

We will see -- some of that is limited by some of the supply constraints. If we want to talk about the U.S., there are still -- it's still tight on cans, it's still tight on hot-filled resin. And so there is some limitations to what's coming out of there. But clearly, as we sell lots of different brands in lots of different packages, we have the opportunity to make sure we can get the shelves full if not with absolutely everything we'd love to see on the shelves, at least the shelves will be full with the vast majority of the things we would like to see on the shelves.

我們將看到——其中一些受到一些供應限制的限制。如果我們要談論美國，仍然有 - 它仍然對罐頭很緊，對熱填充樹脂仍然很緊。所以從那裡出來的東西有一些限制。但很明顯，由於我們以不同的包裝銷售許多不同的品牌，我們有機會確保我們可以把貨架裝滿，如果不是絕對有我們希望在貨架上看到的所有東西，至少貨架會是裝滿了我們想在貨架上看到的絕大多數東西。

And we can manage through it. I mean if there's tremendous demand and shortage of supply, of course one logically starts to wonder whether you need all the promotions that one can think of.

我們可以通過它來管理。我的意思是，如果存在巨大的需求和供應短缺，那麼從邏輯上講，人們當然會開始懷疑您是否需要人們能想到的所有促銷活動。

So there is a balancing of if it costs slightly more to get stuff there because there are kind of shortages, then you don't need as much promotion. So I think there's a lot -- there are a set of puts and takes here which will allow us -- the system to have a good holiday season.

因此，如果由於某種短缺而在那裡購買東西的成本略高，那麼您就不需要那麼多的促銷活動。所以我認為有很多 - 這裡有一組看跌期權可以讓我們 - 系統有一個良好的假期。

Your next question is from the line of Chris Carey with Wells Fargo Securities.

您的下一個問題來自富國銀行證券公司的 Chris Carey。

I just want to follow up on this outlook for mid-single-digit inflation going into next year. I mean consensually, spot prices are decidedly higher than mid-single digits. Perhaps I'm reading that dynamic wrong. But if I'm not, is this simply a function of your global scale, ease -- the ability to source and massive -- better rates than prevailing? You just noted that inventory has been coming at free cash flow, but there's actually a buffer, which has helped you actually in this tight inventory position.

我只是想跟進明年中個位數通脹的前景。我的意思是一致同意，現貨價格明顯高於中個位數。也許我讀錯了那個動態。但如果我不是，這僅僅是你的全球規模的函數嗎？輕鬆——採購能力和大規模——比現行更好的利率？您剛剛注意到庫存一直以自由現金流的形式出現，但實際上有一個緩衝，這實際上幫助您處於這種緊張的庫存狀況。

So just I guess any perspective around that would be helpful because this is a dynamic we've been seeing where spot is actually quite a bit worse than how companies are looking at it to go forward. And I'm just curious on perhaps why that is the case and why you might stand out in this regard.

因此，我想任何有關這方面的觀點都會有所幫助，因為這是我們一直在看到的動態，其中現貨實際上比公司如何看待它要糟糕得多。我只是好奇為什麼會這樣，以及為什麼你可能會在這方面脫穎而出。

Yes. Two things to bear in mind. And let me start with the company and talk about the total system.

是的。要記住兩件事。讓我從公司開始，談談整個系統。

We, the company, obviously skew, as I mentioned earlier, in terms of the commodities that flow through our P&L most directly. And bear in mind the biggest commodity that flows through the company's P&L is actually juice, the cost of buying juice, whose spot price has not shot up or is not projected to shoot up as much next year as this year. It has obviously increased in '21 over '20 but is looking more in the range that we've talked about going into 2022.

正如我之前提到的，我們公司顯然在最直接流經我們損益表的商品方面存在偏差。請記住，流經公司損益表的最大商品實際上是果汁，即購買果汁的成本，其現貨價格沒有飆升，或者預計明年不會像今年那樣飆升。它在 21 年比 20 年明顯增加，但在我們談到的進入 2022 年的範圍內看起來更多。

So from the company's perspective, our biggest commodity is not -- the spot price of it for next year is not widely projected to be out of line with what we're talking about in terms of increases. And then obviously, we buy a whole set of other things which are expected to go up.

因此，從公司的角度來看，我們最大的商品不是 - 明年的現貨價格並沒有被廣泛預測與我們談論的漲幅不一致。然後很明顯，我們購買了一整套預計會上漲的其他東西。

So I do want to also encourage you to remember that we don't buy heavily on spot. That is not our objective. As I told earlier, we -- given our scale in most commodities, especially as a system, we look to buy on a long-term basis, not just hedging on a long-term basis or a multi-quarter basis but buying with partners and making commitments on a long-term basis, too. And so we don't go up and down with the spot market on a day-to-day basis. And that means that the system also has the ability to lock in while still inflationary in 2022. Whether we're talking about PET or metals or sugars or corn syrup, they're all going up in 2022, but it's not the sky is falling.

所以我也想鼓勵你記住，我們不會在現場大量購買。那不是我們的目標。正如我之前所說，鑑於我們在大多數商品的規模，尤其是作為一個系統，我們希望長期購買，不僅僅是長期或多季度對沖，而是與合作夥伴一起購買並做出長期承諾。因此，我們不會每天在現貨市場上下波動。這意味著該系統也有能力在 2022 年仍處於通脹狀態時鎖定。無論我們談論的是 PET、金屬、糖還是玉米糖漿，它們都在 2022 年上升，但並不是天塌下來.

Your next question or final question is from the line of Kevin Grundy with Jefferies.

您的下一個問題或最後一個問題來自傑富瑞的 Kevin Grundy。

Congratulations on further progress in the quarter. James, I want to pivot to the energy drink category and your broader strategy there as performance energy brands have accelerated industry growth and taking share from brands like Monster. So clearly, your stake in Monster underpins the company's broader strategy, though you've also obviously rolled out Coke Energy, AHA with caffeine. You're rolling out Costa RTD coffees in certain markets.

祝賀本季度取得進一步進展。詹姆斯，我想轉向能量飲料類別和您在那裡的更廣泛戰略，因為高性能能量品牌加速了行業增長並從 Monster 等品牌那裡獲得了份額。很明顯，你在 Monster 中的股份支持了公司更廣泛的戰略，儘管你顯然也推出了可口可樂能源，含咖啡因的 AHA。您正在某些市場推出 Costa RTD 咖啡。

So I'd like to get your updated thoughts on, one, how the category is evolving; and two, your overall level of satisfaction with your energy drink strategy, particularly in some of these niche and upcoming brands that are gaining market share from brands like Monster.

因此，我想了解您的最新想法，第一，該類別是如何演變的；第二，您對能量飲料戰略的總體滿意度，特別是在一些從 Monster 等品牌獲得市場份額的利基和即將上市的品牌中。

Yes, sure. Let me distinguish clearly between the energy drink category and the energy or recharge need state, as you mentioned, a series of other brands as well.

是的，當然。讓我明確區分能量飲料類別和能量或充電需求狀態，正如你提到的，還有一系列其他品牌。

As it relates to the energy drink category, obviously we have a very successful partnership with Monster that has created tremendous value for us, for the bottlers and, in particular, for Monster. And I think that's driven the loss. Yes, there have been in the U.S. some recent competitive entries which seem to be both expanding the category and taking some share. Obviously, you can -- you'll be -- you see in their numbers -- I know they haven't announced this quarter, but at least for the numbers they've announced for the first half so far this year, you can see they continued to grow strongly this year on top of growing last year. So it's -- there's a lot of success, and I'm sure they'll talk about on their call how they're responding to marketplace dynamics. And obviously, we the system look forward to continuing to drive success with that partnership.

由於它與能量飲料類別有關，顯然我們與 Monster 建立了非常成功的合作夥伴關係，這為我們、裝瓶商，尤其是 Monster 創造了巨大的價值。我認為這是造成損失的原因。是的，美國最近出現了一些競爭性條目，它們似乎既擴大了類別，又佔據了一些份額。顯然，你可以——你會——從他們的數字中看到——我知道他們本季度沒有公佈，但至少對於他們今年上半年公佈的數字來說，你可以看到他們在去年增長的基礎上繼續強勁增長。所以它 - 有很多成功，我相信他們會在電話會議上談論他們如何應對市場動態。顯然，我們系統期待通過這種夥伴關係繼續推動成功。

As it relates to the broader energy need state or recharge need state of consumers, clearly that's growing. It has been growing pre-COVID, and it's still growing. Whether that be, as you say, ready-to-drink coffees or some of the caffeinated waters, we see a lot of focus and opportunity for growth there. Ready -- Costa ready-to-drink has done -- Costa Coffee ready-to-drink has done well where we've launched it. AHA looks -- has done well in their launch in China.

由於它涉及到消費者更廣泛的能源需求狀態或充電需求狀態，顯然這種情況正在增長。它在 COVID 之前一直在增長，而且還在增長。正如您所說，無論是即飲咖啡還是一些含咖啡因的水，我們都看到了很多關注點和增長機會。準備好了——Costa 即飲型飲料已經完成了——Costa Coffee 即飲型咖啡在我們推出它的地方做得很好。 AHA 看起來——在中國推出時表現不錯。

Certainly, there's kind of caffeine being introduced to a number of different beverages here in the U.S. And so we do see ultimately the kind of recharge need state. Whether that's satisfied with an energy drink or a Coke Classic or AHA with caffeine or a fairlife chocolate milk shake, that has been a long-term driver of growth in the beverage industry, and we expect it to remain so.

當然，在美國，有一種咖啡因被引入到許多不同的飲料中。所以我們最終確實看到了這種充電需求狀態。無論是對能量飲料、經典可樂、含咖啡因的 AHA 還是對 Fairlife 巧克力奶昔感到滿意，這一直是飲料行業增長的長期驅動力，我們預計它將繼續如此。

Okay, I think that was the last question.

好吧，我想這是最後一個問題。

So to summarize, we're confident that as the world begins to move beyond the pandemic, we'll deliver against our long-term growth model consistently and sustainably over time. And from putting our new marketing model into action to shaping a strong and enduring innovation pipeline, from our digital initiatives to our important sustainability agenda, we are working in alignment with our bottling partners with the power of our people, and we are poised to drive growth at scale for the entire system for years to come.

總而言之，我們有信心，隨著世界開始擺脫大流行病，隨著時間的推移，我們將始終如一地、可持續地實現我們的長期增長模式。從將我們的新營銷模式付諸行動，到打造強大而持久的創新渠道，從我們的數字計劃到我們重要的可持續發展議程，我們正以員工的力量與我們的裝瓶合作夥伴保持一致，我們已準備好推動未來幾年整個系統的大規模增長。

So thank you for your interest, your investment in our company and for joining us this morning. Thank you.

因此，感謝您對我們公司的關注和投資以及今天早上加入我們的行列。謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。