Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

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Thank you for standing by. This is Brianna and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the Kinsale Capital Group Inc. third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Please note that this call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。我是布麗安娜，我今天將擔任你們的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Kinsale Capital Group Inc. 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。請注意，此通話正在錄音。（操作員說明）

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs, and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors which could cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，透過電話會議的過程，金塞爾的管理層可能會發表反映他們的意圖、信念和對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受到某些風險因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its third quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference non-GAAP financial measures in the call today.

這些風險因素列在該公司向 SEC 提交的各種文件中，包括 10-K 表格中的 2023 年年度報告，應仔細審查。該公司已向美國證券交易委員會提交了 8-K 表，其中包含宣布其第三季業績的新聞稿。金塞爾的管理階層也可能在今天的電話會議中引用非公認會計原則的財務指標。

A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com. I'll now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

GAAP 與這些措施的調節可在新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在公司網站 www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com 上查閱。我現在將會議轉交給 Kinsale 董事長兼執行長 Michael Kehoe 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. As usual, Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO, and Brian Haney or President and COO, are joining me on the call this morning.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。像往常一樣，我們的財務長 Bryan Petrucelli 和總裁兼營運長 Brian Haney 今天早上將與我一起參加電話會議。

In the third quarter 2024, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased 27% and gross written premium grew by 19% over the third quarter of 2023. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 75.7%, and a nine-month annualized operating return on equity of 28.2%. Kinsale's business strategy is the principal driver of these results, and we believe this strategy materially differentiates us from our competitors.

2024 年第三季度，金塞爾的每股營業利潤較 2023 年第三季成長 27%，總保費成長 19%。本季度，該公司的綜合成本率為 75.7%，九個月年化營運股本回報率為 28.2%。金塞爾的業務策略是這些結果的主要驅動力，我們相信這項策略使我們與競爭對手區分開來。

We control our own underwriting absolutely driving a more accurate process. We provide the best customer service and the broadest risk appetite in the E&S marketplace. We operate at an enormous expense advantage in a business where our customers care intensely about price. Our expertise and technology not only results in lower costs, but it also allows Kinsale to drive a highly quantitative approach to managing the business.

我們完全掌控自己的承保，從而推動更準確的流程。我們在 E&S 市場上提供最好的客戶服務和最廣泛的風險偏好。在客戶非常關心價格的行業中，我們擁有巨大的費用優勢。我們的專業知識和技術不僅可以降低成本，而且還使 Kinsale 能夠採用高度量化的方法來管理業務。

These advantages, we believe, have real durability to them, and they inspire confidence about our ability to generate strong returns and continue to grow the business in all market environments. The overall E&S market in the third quarter was generally steady, but with a continued increase in competition.

我們相信，這些優勢具有真正的持久性，它們激發了人們對我們產生豐厚回報並在所有市場環境中繼續發展業務的能力的信心。第三季E&S市場整體平穩，但競爭持續加劇。

As usual, there's not one overall E&S market, but instead a series of smaller submarkets each with its own unique level of competition. As a consequence, rate changes and growth rates and intensity of competition for Kinsale varies by quite a bit by underwriting division.

像往常一樣，E&S 市場並不是一個整體，而是一系列較小的子市場，每個子市場都有自己獨特的競爭水平。因此，金塞爾的費率變化、成長率和競爭強度因承保部門而異。

Generally, we continue to see strong growth in new business submission activity, slightly positive overall rate changes across the book of business, and rational, but increasing levels of competition. Brian Haney will have some additional commentary on this topic here in a moment.

總體而言，我們繼續看到新業務提交活動的強勁成長，整個業務的整體比率略有積極變化，以及理性但日益激烈的競爭。Brian Haney 稍後將對此主題發表一些補充評論。

Kinsale's natural catastrophe losses in the quarter were modest. Quarterly loss activity includes both Hurricanes Francine and Helene, as well as a variety of smaller events. As a reminder, we target CAT-exposed property because the margins on that business are generally attractive, but we are also mindful of the potential of volatility and use a cautious risk management strategy to keep that volatility under control.

金塞爾本季的天災損失不大。季度損失活動包括颶風弗朗辛和海倫，以及各種較小的事件。提醒一下，我們的目標是 CAT 暴露的財產，因為該業務的利潤通常很有吸引力，但我們也注意到潛在的波動性，並使用謹慎的風險管理策略來控制波動性。

Hurricane Milton struck the West Coast of Florida early in the fourth quarter as a Category 3 storm. Although it is still early in the loss adjustment process, we estimate our total after-tax Milton losses to be under $10 million. In our press release last night, we announced that our Board of Directors had approved a $100 million share buyback program. We are mindful that Kinsale's shares trade at a relatively high price to earnings multiple.

米爾頓颶風於第四季度初襲擊了佛羅裡達州西海岸，為 3 級風暴。儘管損失調整過程仍處於早期階段，但我們估計 Milton 的稅後總損失將低於 1000 萬美元。在昨晚的新聞稿中，我們宣布董事會已批准一項 1 億美元的股票回購計畫。我們注意到金塞爾的股票交易價格與本益比相對較高。

But we are also confident in our business strategy and our ability to drive best-in-class results and take market share in the years ahead. Accordingly, we believe modest repurchases each quarter with the possibility of larger, more opportunistic purchases from time to time, are in the best interest of our stockholders, who like us, expect to hold the shares for the long term.

但我們也對我們的業務策略以及我們在未來幾年推動一流業績和佔領市場份額的能力充滿信心。因此，我們認為，每季進行適度的回購，並有可能不時進行更大規模、更具機會主義的購買，符合我們股東的最佳利益，他們和我們一樣，希望長期持有股票。

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

接下來，我將把電話轉給布萊恩·佩特魯切利 (Bryan Petrucelli)。

Thanks, Mike. Another strong quarter from a profitability perspective with net income and net operating earnings increasing by 50.1% and 26.8%, respectively. The 75.7% combined ratio for the quarter included 2.8 points from net favorable prior-year loss reserve development compared to 3.2 points last year, with 3.8 points in CAT losses this year compared to less than 0.5 points in Q3 last year.

謝謝，麥克。從獲利角度來看，又是一個強勁的季度，淨利和淨營運收益分別成長 50.1% 和 26.8%。本季 75.7% 的綜合成本率包括 2.8 個百分點的上年淨虧損準備金發展，而去年為 3.2 個百分點；今年 CAT 虧損為 3.8 個百分點，而去年第三季不到 0.5 個百分點。

We produced a 19.6% expense ratio in the third quarter compared to 20.9% last year. The expense ratio continues to benefit from ceding commissions generated on the company's casualty and commercial property quota share reinsurance agreements and from the company's intense focus on managing expenses on a daily basis.

第三季我們的費用率為 19.6%，去年為 20.9%。費用比率繼續受益於公司傷亡和商業財產配額份額再保險協議產生的佣金的放棄以及公司對日常費用管理的高度重視。

On the investment side, net investment income increased by 46.4% in the third quarter over last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates. The annualized gross return was 4.3% for the year so far compared to 3.9% last year.

投資方面，由於強勁的營運現金流和較高的利率帶來的投資組合持續成長，第三季淨投資收益比去年同期成長46.4%。今年迄今的年化總回報率為4.3%，而去年為3.9%。

New [money] yields are averaging in the mid to high 4% range, an average duration slightly over three years. Diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $4.20 per share for the quarter compared to $3.31 per share for the third quarter of 2023.

新[貨幣]收益率平均在4%的中高範圍內，平均期限略超過三年。稀釋後每股營業收益持續改善，本季為每股 4.20 美元，而 2023 年第三季為每股 3.31 美元。

A couple of comments regarding the share buyback program that Mike just touched on. We view the repurchase program as an addition to our capital allocation strategy, along with our quarterly dividends. As a reminder, we really have no interest in M&A and no plans for extraordinary dividends in the near term.

關於麥克剛剛談到的股票回購計劃的一些評論。我們將回購計畫視為我們資本配置策略以及季度股利的補充。提醒一下，我們確實對併購沒有興趣，也沒有計劃在短期內派發特別股利。

Additionally, the plan will have no expiration, and we would expect routine modest buybacks each quarter in part to minimize the dilutive effect of share-based awards and larger purchases to be made opportunistically from time to time.

此外，該計劃不會到期，我們預計每個季度都會進行例行的適度回購，部分是為了最大限度地減少基於股票的獎勵的稀釋效應，並且不時地進行更大的購買。

With that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

有了這個，我會把它交給布萊恩哈尼。

Thanks, Bryan. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 19% in the third quarter, down from 21% growth in this -- and 26% in the first. This modest slowdown in growth has occurred in part because we are seeing increased competition, particularly on some larger accounts in our commercial property division as well as certain professional liability and product liability lines.

謝謝，布萊恩。如前所述，第三季保費成長了 19%，低於第一季的 21% 和第一季的 26%。成長適度放緩的部分原因是我們看到競爭加劇，特別是在我們的商業房地產部門以及某些專業責任和產品責任業務中的一些較大客戶方面。

That being said, a majority of our divisions, including commercial property, are still growing. Growth in our casualty business overall has been steady and it's particularly strong in our general casualty and excess casualty divisions. There's been some commentary among reinsurers in the press that casualty reserves for the industry may be deficient; that's for the industry, not Kinsale.

話雖這麼說，我們的大部分部門，包括商業地產，仍在成長。我們的意外險業務整體成長穩定，特別是一般意外險和超額意外險部門的成長尤為強勁。再保險公司在媒體上發表了一些評論，稱該行業的傷亡準備金可能不足；這是針對整個產業的，而不是針對金塞爾的。

So this gives us some optimism about this space in the medium term as unfavorable development may cause some stress for our competitors and for some of them to enter book correction mode. Overall, property growth in the quarter was favorable with our commercial property division slowing somewhat, while the small business property division continues to grow at a more rapid clip.

因此，這讓我們對中期這一空間持樂觀態度，因為不利的發展可能會給我們的競爭對手帶來一些壓力，並讓他們中的一些人進入賬簿修正模式。總體而言，本季的房地產成長良好，我們的商業房地產部門有所放緩，而小型企業房地產部門繼續以更快的速度成長。

It looks at this point like Hurricane Milton may be a top 10 historical loss. So that may arise to a downward trend in property for some time, and that remains to be seen. The specialty and professional lines areas are among the most competitive, particularly management liability, but there are some pockets that are more favorable than others.

從這一點來看，颶風米爾頓可能是歷史損失排名前十的。因此，房地產可能會在一段時間內出現下降趨勢，這還有待觀察。專業和專業領域是競爭最激烈的領域，尤其是管理責任領域，但也有一些領域比其他領域更有利。

And we have not yet seen, as an industry, the deterioration in reserves for those lines yet. We may, at some point, see the same reserving issues in those lines we are now saying at casualty. Again, for the industry. I'm not speaking about Kinsale. We work really hard to maintain our track record of reserves that are more likely to develop favorably than adversely.

作為一個行業，我們還沒有看到這些線路的儲備惡化。在某些時候，我們可能會在我們現在所說的傷亡事件中看到同樣的保留問題。再次，對於行業而言。我不是說金塞爾。我們非常努力地維持我們的儲備記錄，這些記錄更有可能順勢發展，而不是逆勢發展。

The transportation divisions are growing nicely, especially our commercial auto division. We are seeing growth in the personal line space, especially our high-value homeowners division as more homeowners business moves in its space. There's a lot of room for us for future growth in those two areas.

交通運輸部門發展良好，尤其是我們的商用汽車部門。我們看到個人產品線領域的成長，尤其是隨著越來越多的房主業務進入該領域，我們的高價值房主部門也出現了成長。我們未來在這兩個領域還有很大的發展空間。

New business submissions growth continues to be strong, around 23% for the quarter, a very slight acceleration from the second quarter. This number is subject to some variability, but in general, we view submissions as a leading indicator of growth. And so, we see this submission growth as a positive signal.

新業務提交量成長持續強勁，本季成長約 23%，較第二季略有加速。這個數字可能會存在一些變化，但總的來說，我們將提交量視為成長的領先指標。因此，我們認為提交量的成長是一個正面的訊號。

Turning to rates, we see rates up being around 3% on a nominal basis, down modestly from around 6% last quarter. It's important to keep in mind, the market isn't a monolith. In some areas, our rates are going up higher, in some, they're going up lower. In some target areas, we may cut rates because the margins are so high that we feel the trade-off between rate and growth was (inaudible).

談到利率，我們預計名目利率將上漲 3% 左右，略低於上季 6% 左右。重要的是要記住，市場不是一個整體。在某些地區，我們的費率會上漲，而在某些地區，我們的費率會下降。在某些目標領域，我們可能會降低利率，因為利潤率太高，以至於我們認為利率和成長之間的權衡是必要的（聽不清楚）。

But overall, we feel the business we are putting on the books is very strongly priced and the margins are really good. Overall, we remain optimistic. The results are good, our growth prospects are good. And as the low-cost provider in our space, we have a durable competitive advantage that should allow us to continually and gradually take market share from our higher-expense competitors while continuing to deliver strong returns and build well for our investors.

但總體而言，我們認為我們登記在冊的業務定價非常強勁，而且利潤率非常高。整體而言，我們保持樂觀。結果很好，我們的成長前景也很好。作為我們領域的低成本提供者，我們擁有持久的競爭優勢，這將使我們能夠不斷、逐步地從費用較高的競爭對手手中奪取市場份額，同時繼續為我們的投資者帶來豐厚的回報和良好的發展。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

有了這個，我會把它交還給麥克。

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're now ready for any questions on the call.

謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，我們現在已準備好回答通話中的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）Bill Carcache，Wolfe Research。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. It was great to see the buyback announcement. Maybe I wanted to start off with a clarification on sort of how we should think about the share repurchase program? It would be great if you could perhaps give a little bit more color on the magnitude that we should be thinking about?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。很高興看到回購公告。也許我想先澄清一下我們應該如何考慮股票回購計劃？如果您能為我們應該考慮的幅度提供更多的信息，那就太好了？

You've had a little bit of modest upward drift in your share count over the years. So it's just something that we should think of sort of just maintaining the share count, where it is, or does it actually come down? I'm just wondering, given your average daily volume in your shares, does that pose any sort of constraint on anything kind of more sizable happening? Maybe if you could just give a little bit more context there that would be great.

多年來，您的股票數量略有上升。因此，我們應該考慮維持股票數量，它在哪裡，或者它實際上會下降嗎？我只是想知道，考慮到您的股票日均交易量，這是否會對發生更大規模的事情造成任何限制？也許如果你能提供更多的背景資訊那就太好了。

Yes, Bill, this is Mike. The overall $100 million authorization is -- it's a very modest buyback overall, and we would expect to use a very small percentage of that on a quarterly basis. So we won't offset the dilution from the restricted shares, but it will minimize it. It's kind of a gradual start to this new capital allocation strategy.

是的，比爾，這是麥克。總共 1 億美元的授權是——總的來說，這是一個非常溫和的回購，我們預計每季只使用其中的一小部分。因此，我們不會抵消限制性股票的稀釋作用，但會將其最小化。這是這種新的資本配置策略的逐步開始。

And it's essentially a function of our growth rate having slowed down a little bit, whereas the margins are quite strong. And we like the idea of maintaining a high level of capital efficiency. We want to have enough capital to operate the business and protect our financial rating. But we don't want to have a lot of extra.

這本質上是我們的成長率稍微放緩的結果，但利潤率相當強勁。我們喜歡保持高水準資本效率的想法。我們希望有足夠的資本來經營業務並保護我們的財務評級。但我們不想有太多額外的東西。

That makes a lot of sense, thank you. I wanted to also follow up on your comments. Was hoping that you could discuss the competitive landscape -- the impact that you're expecting on the competitive landscape in the aftermath of the hurricanes?

這很有意義，謝謝。我還想跟進您的評論。希望您能討論一下競爭格局—您預期颶風過後對競爭格局的影響嗎？

I think the short answer is it's too soon to tell. The industry loss estimates, I think, vary from the high teens up to $50 billion, so it's a significant amount of insured loss. It wouldn't shock us that it arrested some of the increased competition we've seen on some of the larger property schedules in the Southeast. I think we just have to wait to -- wait to see.

我認為簡短的答案是現在下結論還為時過早。我認為，行業損失估計從十數十億美元到 500 億美元不等，因此這是一筆巨大的保險損失。我們不會感到驚訝的是，它阻止了我們在東南部一些較大的房地產計劃中看到的一些日益激烈的競爭。我認為我們只需要等待--等著看。

That's helpful. If I could squeeze in one more here and then I'll get back in the queue. It would be helpful if maybe you could characterize the flow of business that you see migrating between E&S and [standard] markets. It feels like it's a question every quarter, but any sort of perspective that you could provide? It's also again, probably still too early, but to the extent there could be any changes there as a result of this quarter's CAT events?

這很有幫助。如果我能在這裡再擠一趟，然後我就會回到隊列。如果您能夠描述您所看到的在 E&S 和[標準]市場之間遷移的業務流程，將會很有幫助。感覺好像每個季度都會有一個問題，但是您可以提供任何觀點嗎？同樣，可能還為時過早，但本季的 CAT 活動可能會帶來任何變化嗎？

Yes, I would say that the -- I think the E&S market continues to grow at a healthy clip. If you look at some of the surplus lines, tax data that's published in the big E&S states like California and whatnot, that seems to support that idea. Our submission, our flow of new business submissions continues to grow at a good clip. I would just note that that is a little bit offset by just a general uptick in the level of competition.

是的，我想說，我認為 E&S 市場繼續以健康的速度成長。如果你看看加州等大型 E&S 州公佈的一些盈餘額度和稅收數據，你會發現這似乎支持了這個想法。我們的提交，我們新業務提交的流量繼續以良好的速度成長。我想指出的是，這被競爭水平的普遍上升所抵消。

It's not uniform across the book, kind of consistent with Brian Haney's comments and mine earlier in the call. There's a lot of smaller submarkets. And so, we have some areas where the competition is quite intense, other areas where we're still seeing very strong double-digit growth.

這本書的內容並不統一，這與布萊恩·哈尼(Brian Haney)和我早些時候在電話會議中的評論是一致的。還有很多較小的子市場。因此，我們在一些領域競爭相當激烈，而在其他領域我們仍然看到非常強勁的兩位數成長。

But if you had to kind of generalize across the whole E&S marketplace, I would just say there has been a relative uptick in the level of competition. And I think that's reflected in the -- our growth rate dropped, I think, from 21% down to 19% from the second to the third quarter.

但如果你必須對整個 E&S 市場進行概括，我只想說競爭水平相對有所上升。我認為這反映在——我認為，從第二季度到第三季度，我們的成長率從 21% 下降到了 19%。

Very helpful, Mike. Thank you.

非常有幫助，麥克。謝謝。

Thanks, Bill.

謝謝，比爾。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Michael Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey, morning. This is Dan on for Mike. Just the first question on pricing. It continues to take a downward trend for you all, that 3 points to 4 points quarter over quarter. Just wondering, is this still above loss trend for the quarter? Can you just unpack what lines, areas, maybe the biggest movers, underlying that change? Thanks.

嘿，早安。這是丹為麥克代言。只是關於定價的第一個問題。對你們來說，它繼續呈下降趨勢，每季下降 3 到 4 點。只是想知道，這是否仍高於本季的虧損趨勢？您能否解說哪些產業、領域，也許是最大的推動者，推動了這項改變？謝謝。

Yes, Dan, we've got some divisions where we're getting double-digit rate increases. We've got some divisions that are getting single digit, but well above loss cost trend, rate increases, in particular our longer-tail casualty lines. So if you think for Kinsale, that would be excess casualty, excess professional liability, construction-related liability business.

是的，丹，我們有一些部門的成長率達到了兩位數。我們的部分部門的成長率為個位數，但遠高於損失成本趨勢，費率上漲，特別是我們的長尾傷亡險種。因此，如果你想到金塞爾，那就是超額傷亡、超額專業責任、建築相關責任業務。

And then we have some divisions where we're cutting rates below trend. I would kind of just remind everybody, if you look at our operating return on equity for the quarter, I think it was 20 -- just over 28%. That means half of our book of business is producing returns in excess of that. And so, we think it's prudent to trade away, if you will, some of that, call it excess profitability in order to maintain better growth rates in certain segments of our book of business.

然後我們有一些部門將利率降低到低於趨勢水平。我想提醒大家，如果你看看我們本季的營運股本回報率，我認為它是 20%——剛剛超過 28%。這意味著我們一半的業務產生的回報超過了這個數字。因此，我們認為，如果您願意的話，為了在我們業務的某些領域保持更好的增長率，放棄其中的一些，稱之為超額盈利，是謹慎的做法。

Okay, so the 3% nominal rate increase for the quarter is a -- that's across the whole book of business. We don't really manage the book monolithically. We manage it one product at a time, but that would be the average across the book.

好的，本季 3% 的名目利率上漲是整個業務範圍內的情況。我們並不是真正單一地管理這本書。我們一次管理一種產品，但這將是整本書的平均水平。

Great, thank you. Makes sense. And then just switching over to CAT and specifically on Milton. Can you just take a step back or walk us through how your exposure to Milton winds up? Ian was about $20 million and we think we've grown more to property specifically in Florida since. And then just on that same year, would you expect the overall business mix of property to fall into 2025? Thanks.

太好了，謝謝。有道理。然後就切換到 CAT，特別是 Milton。您能否退後一步，或向我們介紹一下您與 Milton 的接觸是如何結束的？Ian 的資產約為 2000 萬美元，我們認為自那時起我們已經將更多業務發展到了房地產領域，特別是在佛羅裡達州。那麼就在同一年，您預期房地產的整體業務組合會下降到 2025 年嗎？謝謝。

I'm going to answer those in reverse order. We're seeing a much more competitive market on the larger property schedules. So where the brokers have to layer the placement of the coverage, you're seeing some companies offer bigger primary lines and there's some downward pressure on rates there. Now they're coming off a 20-year high. So I think there is still very attractive rates, but pre-Milton, there was an uptick in competition there.

我將以相反的順序回答這些問題。我們看到，在更大的房地產計劃上，市場競爭更加激烈。因此，在經紀人必須對承保範圍進行分層的地方，您會看到一些公司提供更大的主要險種，並且那裡的利率存在一些下行壓力。現在它們正從 20 年來的高點回落。因此，我認為利率仍然非常有吸引力，但在米爾頓之前，那裡的競爭有所加劇。

On the smaller property, we're still seeing very strong growth rates and strong rate increases. So again, it depends where you are in the marketplace, the level of competition you might expect. And then given with the Milton loss and some of the other smaller hurricanes, we'll see where the market goes here in the near term.

在較小的房產上，我們仍然看到非常強勁的成長率和強勁的成長率。同樣，這取決於您在市場中的位置以及您可能期望的競爭程度。然後考慮到米爾頓的損失和其他一些較小的颶風，我們將看到市場在短期內的趨勢。

It's really, I think, a little bit too soon to tell. In terms of comparing our Ian loss in the third quarter of 2022 with Milton, the big difference there is we had a much larger personal lines loss in Ian and we took a lot of corrective action there to kind of reform that book of business.

我認為現在下結論確實有點為時過早。將我們 2022 年第三季的 Ian 損失與 Milton 進行比較，最大的區別是我們 Ian 的個人線路損失要大得多，我們採取了很多糾正措施來改革該業務。

And I think that's part of the reason why we saw a much more modest loss in Milton. I'm not positive, but I think Milton actually hit as a Category 3. Ian may have been a little bit more intense of a storm, but I'm not positive about them.

我認為這就是為什麼我們看到米爾頓的損失要小得多的部分原因。我不太肯定，但我認為米爾頓實際上是第 3 類。伊恩的風暴可能會更猛烈一些，但我對他們並不樂觀。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

馬克‧休斯，真理主義者。

Thanks. Good morning. Can you comment on the trajectory of the competition as you went through the quarter and maybe extending into October? Do you think that has stabilized? Or is it a little more severe as the quarter progressed? How do you see that?

謝謝。早安.您能否評論一下本季乃至十月份的競爭軌跡？您認為這已經穩定下來了嗎？或者隨著本季的進展會變得更加嚴重嗎？你怎麼看？

I don't really have anything to offer on the progression of competition across the quarter, Mark, but I would just remind you that Kinsale targets for the most part, small commercial accounts. And so, we see, over the year, we're probably going to see 900,000 new business submissions, give or take. I know that works out, too, on a monthly basis, but it's a very high volume of small transactions. As I said before, the level of competition varies quite a bit by line of business.

馬克，我對整個季度的競爭進展沒有什麼可提供的，但我只想提醒您，金塞爾的目標主要是小型商業客戶。因此，我們看到，在這一年裡，我們可能會看到 900,000 個新的業務提交，無論是多少。我知道這也可以按月計算，但小額交易量非常大。正如我之前所說，不同業務領域的競爭程度差異很大。

We have some competitors that are disciplined underwriting companies that have long histories of underwriting to a profit. Obviously, that's what we aspire to do here at Kinsale. We have other competitors that are hyper-aggressive. It's not unusual. We see somebody quoting a policy of 50% of our tactical price. So it's a mixed bag, but I don't really have anything to offer on intra-quarter.

我們的一些競爭對手是紀律嚴明的核保公司，擁有悠久的承保獲利歷史。顯然，這就是我們在金塞爾渴望做的事情。我們還有其他極具攻擊性的競爭對手。這並不罕見。我們看到有人引用我們戰術價格 50% 的政策。所以這是一個好壞參半的問題，但我真的沒有什麼可以提供的季度內數據。

Yeah. In the casualty, if we look at just kind of broad-brush property versus casualty, deaccelerated a little bit, from high teens that had been kind of running in the mid-20s. Is there any particular areas you would highlight? You've touched on a lot of it. So excuse me, if this is redundant, but just kind of approaching it from a different direction.

是的。在傷亡方面，如果我們只看一下粗略的財產與傷亡的情況，從十幾歲到二十多歲的年紀，速度略有放緩。有什麼特別要強調的領域嗎？你已經觸及很多了。所以請原諒，如果這是多餘的，但只是從不同的方向接近它。

The slowdown this quarter, is there potential for that to bounce back in subsequent quarters? Or is this kind of where the market is at this point?

本季經濟放緩，後續幾季是否有可能反彈？或者這就是目前市場的情況嗎？

Well, I mean, I think, our casualty business, just like all of our business, it does ebb and flow a little bit month by month, week by week. I would say, in general, casualty has been fairly steady over the last year or so. In terms of where the market goes from here, I think the things that would give us a sense of optimism in the near term would be the volume of CAT losses in the last couple of months that the industry has had to absorb.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為，我們的傷亡業務，就像我們所有的業務一樣，確實會逐月、逐週地起伏不定。我想說，總的來說，過去一年左右的傷亡人數相當穩定。就市場的未來走向而言，我認為短期內會給我們帶來樂觀感的因素是該行業在過去幾個月必須吸收的 CAT 損失量。

Brian Haney made some comments around a lot of reinsurers are discussing kind of a perceived reserve weakness in casualty lines across the industry, not Kinsale, but for the industry. To the extent that that's accurate. That could cause the market to tighten a little bit on the casualty side. Loss trends continue to be pernicious; litigation, financing, and nuclear verdicts.

布萊恩·哈尼（Brian Haney）圍繞著許多再保險公司發表了一些評論，他們正在討論整個行業的傷亡保險儲備金的弱點，不是金塞爾，而是整個行業。在某種程度上，這是準確的。這可能會導致市場在傷亡方面稍微收緊。損失趨勢仍然有害；訴訟、融資和核裁決。

There's all sorts of reasons why the market could be a little bit more favorable down the road than it is today. We don't have any special insight into where the market will be. For now, I would say, very competitive but relatively steady.

有各種各樣的原因可以解釋為什麼市場未來可能會比現在更有利一些。我們對市場走向沒有任何特別的洞見。我想說，就目前而言，競爭非常激烈，但相對穩定。

Yeah. And then, any way to characterize the competition? I assume this is impacting your bind rate. Submissions are up, new business presumably is being up. You're not getting as many binds on a percentage basis --

是的。那麼，有什麼方法可以描述這場競爭呢？我認為這會影響您的綁定率。提交的內容已經增加，新業務可能正在增加。以百分比計算，您沒有獲得盡可能多的綁定--

Mark, it can also be mix of business, right? So the commercial property is one of our 25 underwriting divisions that happens to target a little bit larger accounts than average. And so, the uptick in competition there is probably shifting the mix of business in a way that makes it look like our growth rate -- or not makes it look, I mean, it is impacting our growth rate more so than maybe hit ratios.

馬克，它也可以是業務的混合，對吧？因此，商業房地產是我們 25 個核保部門之一，其目標客戶數量恰好比平均值稍大。因此，競爭的加劇可能會以某種方式改變業務組合，使其看起來像我們的成長率——或者不讓它看起來，我的意思是，它對我們成長率的影響可能比命中率更大。

Yeah. And then, any way to characterize who is acting, who's being more competitive, is that across the Board or is it a handful of players, MGAs?

是的。然後，有什麼方法可以描述誰在行動，誰更有競爭力，是全面的還是少數參與者、MGA？

Yes, I would look at some of the scheduled (inaudible) exhibits in your big front-end companies. They're kind of interesting.

是的，我會看看你們大型前端公司的一些預定的（聽不清楚）展品。他們有點有趣。

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

好的。好的。非常感謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯安德森，杰弗里斯。

Hey, good morning. The underlying loss ratio of 55% improved quite a bit year over year, but at the same time, you mentioned a 3% rate increase against what I think was a high 5% loss trend last quarter. So I'm just trying to think about how the improvement kind of materialized here against a challenging [rate-first] trend environment?

嘿，早安。55% 的基本損失率比去年同期有了很大改善，但與此同時，您提到了 3% 的損失率，而我認為上個季度的損失率高達 5%。所以我只是想思考在充滿挑戰的[利率優先]趨勢環境中，這種改進是如何實現的？

Andrew, this is Mike. Our financials at the end of a given quarter are a composite of actual claim activity versus actuarial assumptions and the like. The easiest explanation as we continue to overperform in terms of our loss activity against actuarial assumptions, we did highlight in the queue -- maybe the one exception to that is we have seen for some of those older accident years, the construction-related liability business drift up to a little bit higher loss ratios and [leave].

安德魯，這是麥克。我們在特定季度末的財務狀況是實際索賠活動與精算假設等的綜合。最簡單的解釋是，我們在損失活動方面繼續超越精算假設，我們確實在隊列中強調了這一點——也許唯一的例外是我們在一些較早的事故年份中看到了與建築相關的責任業務漂移到更高一點的損耗率[離開]。

You address that in all sorts of ways, higher prices, tighter coverage, different geographic mix of business in our construction area. We've been booking those construction-related loss ratios in a much higher level. So it's a big mix of activity. But I would just say that this quarter, this is consistent going back a number of years. Our actual loss activity came in below our expectations.

您以各種方式解決這個問題，包括更高的價格、更嚴格的覆蓋範圍、我們建築區域的不同地理業務組合。我們一直將那些與建築相關的損失率定在更高的水平。所以這是一個很大的活動組合。但我只想說，本季的情況與幾年前一致。我們的實際損失活動低於我們的預期。

Okay. Could we maybe size within the 55%, how much of the improvement is coming from the property book, which we've been growing quite a bit? First, the casualty book, which is maybe an area, I would think you're still booking relatively conservatively?

好的。我們能否將規模控制在 55% 之內，有多少改善來自於我們一直在大幅成長的房產帳簿？首先，傷亡登記，這可能是一個領域，我認為你們的預訂仍然相對保守？

Yes, I think we book conservatively across the board, but obviously casualties much longer tail than property. But I can't really kind of break that apart for you on a conference call. But I would say this. The property business was written even including the recent CAT activity, has been quite profitable for Kinsale.

是的，我認為我們全面保守地預訂，但顯然傷亡比財產更長。但我真的無法在電話會議上為你解釋這一點。但我想說的是。房地產業務甚至包括最近的 CAT 活動，對金塞爾來說已經相當有利可圖。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Heleniak, RBC.

斯科特·海倫尼克，加拿大皇家銀行。

Yes, thanks. Good morning. The expense ratio was down quite a bit below 20%, lower than it has been running in the past few quarters. I know you get a benefit from ceding commissions, but any sense of what kind of run rate to use for [Phoenix] next few quarters? Is it going to be kind of in the 19% to around 20%? Or is it going to drift higher? Is this kind of a sustainable run rate, you think?

是的，謝謝。早安.費用比率遠低於 20%，低於過去幾季的水平。我知道你會從放棄佣金中獲益，但你知道接下來幾季[菲尼克斯]要使用什麼樣的運行率嗎？會是 19% 到 20% 左右嗎？或者它會漂移得更高嗎？您認為這種運行速度是可持續的嗎？

Yes, Scott, it does bounce around a little bit quarter to quarter. But I think, you're looking at sort of our nine months, the expense ratio is 20.5%. That's probably as good a gauge as any.

是的，斯科特，它確實每個季度都有一點反彈。但我認為，你看到的是我們九個月的時間，費用率為 20.5%。這可能是最好的衡量標準。

Okay. And I wanted to ask about the high-value homeowners. I think you mentioned that last quarter, you mentioned it again. Just talk about how the opportunity is there and what kind of growth you might see over the next few years in that business? It does seem like a lot of it is migrating or continue to -- and how are you going to mitigate the risk on that type of business?

好的。我想問高價值房主的情況。我想你上個季度有提到過，你又提到了。只需談談機會如何以及未來幾年您可能會在該業務中看到什麼樣的成長？看起來確實有很多業務正在遷移或繼續遷移——您將如何降低此類業務的風險？

High-value homeowners hits our geographic mix -- it's Western states where there's homes exposed to wildfire. It's coastal Southeastern business, et cetera.

高價值房主影響了我們的地理組合——西部各州的房屋面臨著野火的威脅。這是東南沿海的商業，等等。

And it's a CAT-exposed book in large part. And we've managed CAT risk, whether it's residential or commercial business, the same way to very good underwriting. We have strict controls on concentration of business. We buy lot of reinsurance. We model the portfolio every month, et cetera. I would say, high-value homeowners is growing rapidly from a small base.

這在很大程度上是一本接觸 CAT 的書。無論是住宅還是商業業務，我們都以相同的方式管理 CAT 風險，以實現良好的承保。我們對業務集中度有嚴格的控制。我們買了很多再保險。我們每個月都會對投資組合進行建模，等等。我想說的是，高價值房主正在從小基礎上快速成長。

So I think personal lines business for Kinsale overall is maybe 2.5% of our book, but we are optimistic that that will continue to grow nicely and be a nice profit center for the company in the years ahead. There is an interesting shift of some homeowners business entity in this market. I think some of that's driven by CAT exposures. I think some of it's driven by regulatory issues for standard lines companies. So we'll see where that plays out, but we're cautiously optimistic.

因此，我認為 Kinsale 的個人險業務可能總體上占我們帳面價值的 2.5%，但我們樂觀地認為，該業務將繼續良好成長，並在未來幾年成為公司的一個不錯的利潤中心。這個市場上的一些房主商業實體發生了有趣的轉變。我認為其中一些是由 CAT 暴露推動的。我認為其中一些是由標準線路公司的監管問題所驅動的。因此，我們將看看結果如何，但我們持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Okay. Is that also going to be in -- you mentioned West and California, is that also going to be in Texas, Florida, and New York and some of those other big markets as well? Or is it mostly focused in the West at this point?

好的。您提到了西部和加利福尼亞州，德克薩斯州、佛羅裡達州和紐約州以及其他一些大市場是否也會發生這種情況？還是目前主要集中在西方？

I think it's kind of a split, and I can't remember the exact status as of today, but Western states plus Southeast. I think ultimately, we'll be writing personal lines business throughout the country.

我認為這是一種分裂，我不記得今天的確切狀態，但西部各州加上東南部。我認為最終，我們將在全國範圍內開展個人業務。

Okay. Thanks a lot.

好的。多謝。

You bet.

你打賭。

Rowland Mayor, Oppenheimer.

羅蘭市長，奧本海默。

Hi, good morning. In the 10-Q, you pulled out some adverse development in construction defect book? Any sense you could size that and talk to your sort of the lines of business where you still see favorable prior-year development?

嗨，早安。在10-Q中，你拿出了一些不良發展的建築缺陷書嗎？您是否可以衡量這一點，並與您認為去年仍取得良好發展的業務部門進行討論？

I think we're seeing favorable development across almost the whole book. Construction, like I talked about a little while ago, we've done all sorts of things over the last five years to make sure that we're driving very strong returns there. I would say this: our property business has been profitable. I think throughout our company's history, it has just lagged a little bit.

我認為我們幾乎在整本書中都看到了良好的發展。建築業，就像我剛才談到的那樣，我們在過去五年裡做了各種各樣的事情，以確保我們在那裡帶來非常強勁的回報。我想說的是：我們的房地產業務已經獲利。我認為縱觀我們公司的歷史，它只是有點落後。

And I think in large part, that's due to the uptick in inflation and given the long-tail nature of some of the property claims, particularly around construction defect, water intrusion type claims. So again, we've pushed out pricing dramatically over the years.

我認為這在很大程度上是由於通貨膨脹的上升以及一些財產索賠的長尾性質，特別是圍繞建築缺陷、水入侵類型的索賠。再說一次，多年來我們大幅降低了定價。

We've tightened coverage. We've changed the geographic mix of business. We're booking those losses at a much higher level, but you make a bunch of changes. And because it's a long-tail business, you don't know definitively how that's going to impact the margin. So we just have to see how that business develops in the years ahead. But in general, I think we're doing the right thing there.

我們加強了覆蓋範圍。我們改變了業務的地理組合。我們以更高的水平記錄這些損失，但你做了很多改變。由於這是一項長尾業務，您無法確切知道這將如何影響利潤。因此，我們只需要看看該業務在未來幾年的發展。但總的來說，我認為我們正在做正確的事情。

Thanks. And then a number of your standard line peers, as you've referenced, has taken too much commercial casualty charges in the last 12 months. As you look at full-year reserves today and loss development, are you layering in any extra caution or extending the timeline when you do your reserve reviews? And have you ever quantified sort of your loss rate assumption for the casualty business?

謝謝。然後，正如您所提到的，您的許多標準線路同行在過去 12 個月中承擔了過多的商業傷亡費用。當您查看今天的全年準備金和損失發展時，您在進行準備金審查時是否會格外謹慎或延長時間表？您是否曾經量化過傷亡業務的損失率假設？

I don't know that we have or have not. I think we have -- I think it's around 6%, but it's going to vary quite a bit by line of business. What was the first question?

我不知道我們有或沒有。我認為我們的比例約為 6%，但根據業務範圍的不同會有很大差異。第一個問題是什麼？

As (inaudible) the reserves today, given sort of the industry backdrop and how your sort of standard line peers are taking charges, are you putting any extra conservatism in there or extending for the timeline for your reviews?

作為（聽不清楚）今天的儲備，考慮到行業背景以及您的標準線同行如何收取費用，您是否會在其中加入任何額外的保守主義或延長您的審查時間表？

Yes, we have addressed that a number of times over the last couple of years. Starting about, I think five or six years ago, we started to get, of course, the acceleration in premium growth. But at the same time, we are getting rate increases ahead of loss cost trend, not for one year, but for year after year, after year, after year, et cetera. And so, I think we've been fairly vocal about the fact that in addition to producing really compelling margins, we've also been adding to the level of conservatism in our reserves.

是的，過去幾年我們已經多次討論過這個問題。我認為從五、六年前開始，我們當然開始看到保費成長的加速。但同時，我們在損失成本趨勢之前就開始升息，不是一年，而是年復一年，年復一年，等等。因此，我認為我們一直在直言不諱地表達這樣一個事實：除了產生真正引人注目的利潤之外，我們還一直在增加儲備的保守程度。

And that's why we've said a number of times over the years that we're confident that our reserves are in the most conservative position they've ever been in. And I think there's all sorts of reasons why that is warranted. Not so much our competitors, but more just the uptick in inflation, a high loss cost trend, nuclear verdicts, litigation, financing, social inflation. The tort system is very dynamic and I think conservatism is warranted.

這就是為什麼我們多年來多次表示，我們有信心我們的儲備處於有史以來最保守的位置。我認為有各種各樣的理由證明這是有道理的。與其說是我們的競爭對手，不如說是通貨膨脹的上升、高損失成本趨勢、核裁決、訴訟、融資、社會通貨膨脹。侵權制度非常動態，我認為保守主義是有道理的。

But I do think our investors should have a lot of confidence in the integrity of our balance sheet.

但我確實認為我們的投資者應該對我們資產負債表的完整性充滿信心。

Great. Thank you. And then just one more on the balance sheet. I know you haven't actually done any to buybacks yet, but should you announce it there because as it will be taken as a sign of future growth expectation? Or is it just the capital generation that has gotten so high that you have the opportunity to do an authorization now?

偉大的。謝謝。然後資產負債表上又多了一項。我知道您實際上還沒有進行任何回購，但是您是否應該在那裡宣布，因為這將被視為未來成長預期的標誌？或者只是資本生成已經如此之高，以至於您現在有機會進行授權？

Well, I think we've been vocal about the fact that we think our long-term growth opportunity is best estimated in the 10% to 20% range. And we're producing, at least for nine months, just over 28% operating return on equity. So with that growth expectation against that level of profitability, we are sitting on some excess capital today and that will continue to grow, I think, at a pretty healthy clip. So that's really the driver.

嗯，我認為我們一直直言不諱地表示，我們認為我們的長期成長機會最好估計在 10% 到 20% 的範圍內。至少在 9 個月內，我們的營運股本回報率剛超過 28%。因此，考慮到與獲利水準相對應的成長預期，我們今天擁有一些過剩資本，我認為這些資本將繼續以相當健康的速度成長。所以這確實是司機。

Thanks for the answers and congrats on the quarter.

感謝您的回答並祝賀本季。

Casey Alexander, Compass Point.

凱西·亞歷山大，指南針點。

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. For Brian Haney: as you said, the business is not a monolith, there's a lot of different slices to the business. And I'm just wondering when you talk about your conversations with the reinsurers regarding some casualty reserve insufficiency across the industry, not Kinsale, recognizing that. There's a lot of different slices to casualty.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。對於布萊恩·哈尼（Brian Haney）：正如您所說，業務不是一個整體，業務有很多不同的部分。我只是想知道當你談論與再保險公司就整個行業的一些傷亡準備金不足進行的對話時，而不是金塞爾，認識到這一點。傷亡有很多不同的部分。

Are they giving you any indication as to where in some of those slices that maybe we ought to have a finger in the wind as we think about other companies in this space?

他們是否向您表明，當我們考慮該領域的其他公司時，我們應該在其中一些領域中採取行動？

Yes, the two biggest areas within casualty as a whole, where I think you would see the worst of that for the industry, are excess casualty and commercial auto. That's the short answer.

是的，整個傷亡事故中最大的兩個領域是過度傷亡事故和商用汽車，我認為您會看到該行業最糟糕的情況。這就是簡短的答案。

Okay. Well, thank you. Thank you for that. I really appreciate it. And Bryan Petrucelli. This is minor, but I'm just kind of wondering, because fee income generally follows the cadence of the overall business. And yet in this quarter, fee income was down quarter over quarter relative to a business in the book that grew [quarter over quarter]. I was just wondering, it's kind of curious to me.

好的。嗯，謝謝。謝謝你。我真的很感激。還有布萊恩·佩特魯切利。這是次要的，但我只是想知道，因為費用收入通常遵循整體業務的節奏。然而，在本季度，相對於書中成長的業務而言，費用收入較上季下降[季度環比]。我只是想知道，這對我來說有點好奇。

I don't think there's anything significant there, Casey. I think if you look at fee income as a percentage of gross written premium over a period of time, that will give you a pretty good gauge as to where to look going forward.

我不認為那裡有什麼重要的事情，凱西。我認為，如果你將一段時間內的費用收入佔總保費的百分比視為一個很好的衡量標準，就可以了解未來的發展方向。

Okay. All right. Thank you very much. Appreciate you for taking my questions.

好的。好的。非常感謝。感謝您回答我的問題。

Pablo Singzon, J.P. Morgan.

巴勃羅辛宗 (Pablo Singzon)，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning. So first would be for Mike. So with your recent [premium] growth in the high teens, low 20s, you're running closer to the long-term growth that you spoke about, right? (inaudible) So should we think about that growth as through the sales cycle target that could potentially fall below where I think in 2015, 2016, for example, you grew high-single digits (inaudible) or is the business in a different position today? Like clearly, much bigger, right?

嗨，早安。首先是麥克。因此，隨著您最近在十幾歲、二十歲左右的[溢價]增長，您正在接近您所說的長期增長，對嗎？（聽不清楚）因此，我們是否應該透過銷售週期目標來考慮這種成長，該目標可能會低於我認為的2015 年、2016 年的水平，例如，您的成長是高個位數（聽不見清），還是業務今天處於不同的位置？顯然，更大，對吧？

But maybe in scale or the number of [policies] you have where you can potentially be a bit more aggressive on the gross margin -- (technical difficulty)

但也許在規模或[保單]數量上，你可以在毛利率上更加激進一些——（技術難度）

Pablo, you're breaking up a little bit there, but I think you're asking like our growth expectations?

巴勃羅，你有點分裂了，但我認為你問的是我們的成長預期？

Yes. Sorry about that. So you're reaching growth, high teens, low 20s, that's much closer to your long-term growth target, right? So your long-term growth target, should we think about that as through the cycle target, right? Meaning you could potentially fall below mid teens?

是的。對此感到抱歉。所以你正在達到成長，十幾歲，二十多歲，這更接近你的長期成長目標，對嗎？那麼，您的長期成長目標，我們是否應該將其視為整個週期目標，對吧？這意味著你可能會跌到十幾歲以下？

And I think in the past, you did grow high-single digits or low teens in 2015 or 2016. Or is the business in a different position today where maybe it's size or scale or number products you have where you can be a bit more aggressive than in terms of the gross margin trade-off, right? So maybe you don't follow the low teens, right? Because you can grow faster, just (inaudible).

我認為過去，2015 年或 2016 年的成長確實是高個位數或低雙位數。或者，現在的企業是否處於不同的位置，也許是因為您擁有的規模、規模或產品數量，您可以比在毛利率權衡方面更加激進，對嗎？所以也許你不關注低青少年，對吧？因為你可以成長得更快，只要（聽不清楚）。

Just wanted to get your thoughts on sort of how you're thinking about that?

只是想了解一下您對此的看法？

Sure. Okay. I'll start by saying this. We don't actually know what the growth rate is going to look like. It's a function of, again, the intensity of the competition, how aggressive the competition is in pricing risk, the mix of business, et cetera. But I would say, the 10% to 20% is a good faith estimate as what we think we can grow over the long term in a very big mature industry like P&C. E&S tends to grow a little bit quicker than the overall P&C market.

當然。好的。我首先要說的是這個。我們其實並不知道成長率會是什麼樣子。同樣，它也是競爭強度、定價風險競爭激烈程度、業務組合等因素的函數。但我想說，10% 到 20% 是一個善意的估計，因為我們認為我們可以在像財產保險這樣一個非常大的成熟行業中長期成長。E&S 的成長往往比整個 P&C 市場的成長快一些。

And we think because of the variety of competitive advantages we have, we can outgrow the E&S market. And so, I think that 10% to 20% is a good estimate. Is it possible we could go above that or below it on any given? Yes, sure it is. But I think given the size of the company, the diversity of our product line, the competitive advantages we have, the margins in our business can allow us to be a little bit more competitive if we want to be on certain lines. I think that's a good estimate.

我們認為，由於我們擁有多種競爭優勢，我們可以超越 E&S 市場。因此，我認為 10% 到 20% 是一個不錯的估計。我們是否有可能在任何給定的情況下高於或低於它？是的，當然是這樣。但我認為，考慮到公司的規模、產品線的多樣性、我們擁有的競爭優勢，如果我們想在某些產品線上發展，我們業務的利潤率可以讓我們更具競爭力。我認為這是一個很好的估計。

Got you. And then second question, with the market getting more competitive as you referenced, have you seen any change in retention in your book, right? I don't think that's a metric that -- as (inaudible) discussed in your calls. But I think E&S has a naturally lower retention than admitted business. And I'm just curious to hear sort of how that's trended for you over the past hard market and now where things are getting more competitive?

明白你了。然後第二個問題，正如您提到的那樣，隨著市場競爭變得更加激烈，您在書中看到保留率有任何變化嗎？我不認為這是一個指標——正如您在電話中討論的（聽不清楚）。但我認為 E&S 的保留率自然低於承認的業務。我只是好奇地想聽聽您在過去的硬市場和現在競爭變得更加激烈的情況下的趨勢如何？

My experience going back 25-plus years at three different E&S companies is we tend to retain about two thirds of our policies year over year. Hard market, where you're getting dramatic rate increases, sometimes the premium retention can go above that quite a bit. But in general, I think that two-thirds is a good benchmark for Kinsale and probably a lot of our competitors, both in terms of policy count and premium.

根據我 25 多年來在三家不同 E&S 公司工作的經驗，我們往往每年都會保留大約三分之二的保單。在硬市場中，您的費率會大幅上漲，有時保費保留率可能會高出許多。但總的來說，我認為三分之二對於金塞爾以及我們的許多競爭對手來說都是一個很好的基準，無論是在保單數量還是保費方面。

Okay. And then third question, I think if I remember correctly, in the first quarter of this year, you bumped up your casualty loss [picks] to reflect those general environments, your views on loss trends, et cetera. Is that a formal process that takes place every quarter? Or is that something that could pop up in any given period just depending on your views of the market at that time?

好的。然後第三個問題，我想如果我沒記錯的話，在今年第一季度，你們提高了傷亡損失[選擇]，以反映這些總體環境、你們對損失趨勢的看法等等。這是每季進行一次的正式流程嗎？或者說，這種情況在任何特定時期都可能出現，僅取決於您對當時市場的看法？

Yes. I mean, every quarter we look at actual claim activity. Reported losses, settled claims, et cetera, change in case reserves. And then we compare that actual activity against all the actuarial assumptions we have in terms of reporting patterns, payout patterns, expected loss ratios by accident year, by line of business. I mean, it's obviously -- it's a very extensive analysis.

是的。我的意思是，每個季度我們都會查看實際的索賠活動。報告的損失、已解決的索賠等、案件準備金的變更。然後，我們將實際活動與我們在報告模式、支付模式、按事故年份和業務線劃分的預期損失率方面的所有精算假設進行比較。我的意思是，這顯然是一個非常廣泛的分析。

And then, of course, you're making adjustments to your assumptions to put forward your best estimate, but tempered with a strong measure of conservatism. So we do that every quarter. I think every insurance company does. I think maybe you're addressing a pattern in our reserving where the current accident year tends to start out higher and over the course of the year, depending on, again, actual loss activity.

然後，當然，你會調整你的假設以提出你的最佳估計，但會受到強烈的保守主義的影響。所以我們每季都會這樣做。我想每個保險公司都是這樣的。我認為也許您正在解決我們的儲備金中的一種模式，即當前事故年往往會開始更高，並且在一年中，這又取決於實際損失活動。

Sometimes those loss ratios can come down across the calendar year. We're constantly looking at and evaluating and adjusting our reserve assumptions to make sure we're on track.

有時，這些損失率可能會在整個日曆年中下降。我們不斷地審視、評估和調整我們的儲備假設，以確保我們走上正軌。

Got you. That makes sense. I'll just squeeze in one more, if you will. I just wanted to hear you talk about the thought process of choosing share buybacks over other forms of capital return, maybe like a special dividend. You did mention that you recognize that your stock trades are above or at average multiple in -- I'm sure, share buybacks in your analysis, you provided some benefits.

明白你了。這是有道理的。如果你願意的話，我就再擠一個。我只是想聽你談談選擇股票回購而不是其他形式的資本回報（可能是特別股息）的思考過程。你確實提到，你認識到你的股票交易高於或平均倍數——我確信，在你的分析中，股票回購，你提供了一些好處。

But if you can just talk through the thought process on how you landed in share buybacks versus other forms of capital?

但是，您是否可以談談您如何進行股票回購與其他形式的資本的思考過程？

As Bryan said, we're not interested in acquisitions. We appreciate that the stock trades at a high price to earnings. I think a lot of people look at price to book, that's not a metric that we can put much confidence in. Because every insurance company has different levels of redundant capital. And so, you end up with an apples and orange comparison.

正如布萊恩所說，我們對收購不感興趣。我們讚賞該股票的本益比較高。我認為很多人都會關注預訂價格，這不是我們可以信任的指標。因為每家保險公司都有不同程度的冗餘資本。因此，您最終會進行蘋果和橙子的比較。

If you look at our stock, we evaluate where we think our share prices go in the future against the S&P. We have, since we've been public back in 2016, with [PT] S&P, seven out of eight years. And if you were to include 2024 in that, it will be eight out of nine. We think we've got a very interesting business model with some competitive advantages that have real durability to them, and we're long-term holders, right?

如果你看看我們的股票，我們會根據標準普爾指數來評估我們認為我們的股價未來的走向。自 2016 年上市以來，我們八年中有七年與 [PT] S&P 合作。如果你把 2024 年也算進去，那將是九分之八。我們認為我們有一個非常有趣的商業模式，具有一些真正持久的競爭優勢，而且我們是長期持有者，對吧？

So I think it's a little bit easier for us to be comfortable with buying back our own stock, then maybe other people that kind of are skeptical around the valuation. Okay, admittedly, it's a judgment call. But I would also say this. The buybacks we're talking about are very modest.

因此，我認為我們更容易放心地回購自己的股票，然後其他人可能會對估值持懷疑態度。好吧，不可否認，這是一個判斷。但我也想說這一點。我們談論的回購非常溫和。

So I'm not sure they're going to move the needle one way or the other here in the near term. But for people like us that expect to hold these shares well into the future, I think over time it will be material. And I think long term, it's going to be quite positive for the stockholders of Kinsale.

所以我不確定他們會在短期內以某種方式改變現狀。但對於像我們這樣希望在未來長期持有這些股票的人來說，我認為隨著時間的推移，這將是重要的。我認為從長遠來看，這對金塞爾的股東來說將是相當積極的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks, Pablo.

謝謝，巴勃羅。

Seeing no further questions at this time, I will now turn the call back to Mike for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題，我現在將把電話轉回給麥克，讓他發表結束語。

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with you again soon. Have a great day.

好的。好的，謝謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待很快再次與你們交談。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。