Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Kinsale Capital Group's second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Kinsale Capital Group 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs, and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2024 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its second-quarter results.

在我們開始之前，請允許我提醒大家，在電話會議過程中，金塞爾的管理層可能會發表反映他們的意圖、信念和對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受某些風險因素的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。這些風險因素列在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的各種文件中，包括 2024 年 10-K 表格年度報告，應仔細審查。該公司已向美國證券交易委員會提交了 8-K 表格，其中包含宣布其第二季業績的新聞稿。

Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

金塞爾的管理階層可能也會在今天的電話會議中提到某些非公認會計準則財務指標。您可以在新聞稿中找到 GAAP 與這些措施的對帳情況，該新聞稿可在公司網站 www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com 上找到。

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我將會議交給金塞爾董事長兼執行長麥可·基霍先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO; and Brian Haney, our President and COO, are both joining me on the call this morning.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們的財務長 Bryan Petrucelli 和我們的總裁兼營運長 Brian Haney 今天早上都參加了我的電話會議。

In the second quarter of 2025, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 27.5%, and gross written premium grew by 4.9% over the second quarter of 2024. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 75.8% and a six-month operating return on equity of 24.7%. Our book value per share increased by 16% since the year-end 2024.

2025 年第二季度，金塞爾每股營業收益成長 27.5%，毛承保保費比 2024 年第二季成長 4.9%。本季度，該公司的綜合比率為 75.8%，六個月的營業股本回報率為 24.7%。自 2024 年底以來，我們的每股帳面價值成長了 16%。

In both hard markets and soft, Kinsale's differentiated strategy and execution allow us to drive both profit and growth. We focus on small E&S accounts. We maintain absolute control over our underwriting. We provide exceptional customer service and offer the broadest risk appetite in the business. We have advanced technology and no legacy software, a strong emphasis on data and analytics. And by far, we had the lowest costs in the industry. This strategy and the skill and experience of our almost 700 full-time employees give us confidence in our prospects for both profitability and growth in the years ahead in all types of market environments.

無論是在硬市場還是軟市場，金塞爾的差異化策略和執行都使我們能夠實現利潤和成長。我們專注於小型 E&S 帳戶。我們對承保保持絕對控制權。我們提供卓越的客戶服務，並提供業界最廣泛的風險偏好。我們擁有先進的技術，沒有遺留軟體，非常重視數據和分析。到目前為止，我們的成本是業界最低的。這項策略以及我們近 700 名全職員工的技能和經驗使我們對未來幾年在各種市場環境中的獲利和成長前景充滿信心。

The E&S market in the second quarter was consistent with the first quarter. Overall, it is a competitive market with the level of competition varying quite a bit from one industry segment to another.

第二季的 E&S 市場與第一季一致。整體而言，這是一個競爭激烈的市場，各行業之間的競爭水平差異很大。

Our Commercial Property division saw premium dropped by 16.8% in the second quarter due to high levels of competition and rate declines. Absent this division, Kinsale's premium grew by 14.3% in the second quarter. Brian Haney will offer some more in-depth commentary on the market here in a moment.

由於競爭激烈和利率下降，我們商業房地產部門的保費在第二季下降了 16.8%。如果沒有這個部門，金塞爾的保費在第二季增加了 14.3%。Brian Haney 稍後將對市場提供更深入的評論。

We renewed our reinsurance program on June 1. Given the strong returns we have generated for our reinsurers over many years, the overall program was slightly more favorable for Kinsale upon renewal. Some of the modest changes in the program include a $3 million retention on our casualty treaty up from a $2.5 million retention on the expiring. On our Commercial -- on our Property quota share contract, the ceding commission we received from reinsurers increased slightly, reflecting favorable historical results. And our retention increased to 60% from 50% on the expiring program.

我們於 6 月 1 日更新了再保險計劃。鑑於我們多年來為再保險公司創造的豐厚回報，續約後的整體計劃對金塞爾來說略有利。該計劃的一些細微變化包括，我們的傷亡保險條約的保留金額從到期的 250 萬美元增加到 300 萬美元。在我們的商業－財產配額份額合約中，我們從再保險公司收到的轉讓佣金略有增加，反映了良好的歷史表現。我們的保留率從到期計畫的 50% 增加到 60%。

On the catastrophe excess of loss treaty, we increased our retention from $60 million to $75 million and purchased some additional limit at the top of the tower.

對於巨災超額損失合同，我們將保留金額從 6000 萬美元提高到 7500 萬美元，並在塔頂購買了一些額外的限額。

As we have stated many times over the years, we endeavor to post loss reserves with some measure of conservatism, so that they are more likely to develop favorably than unfavorably over time. Our 16-year track record bears out our commitment to cautious reserving and building a strong balance sheet. At a time when there are substantial questions around the reserve adequacy of the broader P&C industry, it's important for investors in Kinsale to know that our loss reserves have never been more conservatively stated than they are right now.

正如我們多年來多次指出的那樣，我們努力以一定程度的保守態度來計提損失準備金，以便隨著時間的推移，損失準備金更有可能向好的方向發展，而不是向壞的方向發展。我們 16 年的業績記錄證明了我們致力於謹慎儲備和建立強勁資產負債表的承諾。在人們對整個財產和意外保險行業的準備金充足性提出大量質疑之際，金塞爾的投資者必須知道，我們的損失準備金從未像現在這樣保守。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給 Bryan Petrucelli。

Thanks, Mike. Again, just another strong quarter with net income and net operating earnings increasing by 44.9% and 27.4%, respectively. The 75.8% combined ratio for the quarter included 3.9 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 2.8 point last year, with less than 1 point in cat losses this year compared to 1 point in Q2 of 2024.

謝謝，麥克。這又是一個強勁的季度，淨收入和淨營業收入分別成長了 44.9% 和 27.4%。本季綜合成本率為 75.8%，其中上年淨虧損準備金成長 3.9 個百分點，而去年為 2.8 個百分點；今年的巨災損失不到 1 個百分點，而 2024 年第二季為 1 個百分點。

As Mike mentioned, we continue to take a cautious approach to releasing reserves. We produced a 20.7% expense ratio in the second quarter compared to 21.1% last year. The expense ratio continues to benefit from ceding commissions generated on the company's Casualty and Commercial Property quota share reinsurance agreements and from the company's intense focus on managing expenses on a daily basis.

正如麥克所提到的，我們繼續採取謹慎的態度來釋放儲備。我們第二季的費用率為 20.7%，而去年的費用率為 21.1%。費用率持續受惠於公司意外險和商業財產險份額再保險協議產生的佣金，以及公司對日常費用管理的高度關注。

On the investment side, net investment income increased by 29.6% in the second quarter over last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows. Kinsale's float, mostly unpaid losses and unearned premium, grew to $2.9 billion at June 30 of this year, up from $2.5 billion at the end of 2024. Annualized gross return was 4.3% for the first half of the year and consistent with last year.

投資方面，由於強勁的經營現金流帶來投資組合的持續成長，第二季淨投資收入較去年同期成長29.6%。金塞爾的浮動資金（主要是未付損失和未賺取保費）從 2024 年底的 25 億美元增長到今年 6 月 30 日的 29 億美元。上半年年化總報酬率為4.3%，與去年持平。

Other than the modest increase in the allocation of common stock that we mentioned last quarter, we haven't made any significant changes to our investment strategy and continue to monitor inflation, interest rates, and related Fed policy commentary and will adjust as circumstances change. New money yields are averaging in the low to mid-5% range with an average duration of 3.1 years.

除了我們上個季度提到的普通股配置適度增加外，我們沒有對投資策略做出任何重大改變，並將繼續關注通膨、利率和相關的聯準會政策評論，並將根據情況的變化進行調整。新資金收益率平均在 5% 的低點至中位數區間，平均期限為 3.1 年。

And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $4.78 per share for the quarter compared to $3.75 per share for the second quarter of 2024.

最後，每股攤薄營業收益持續改善，本季為每股 4.78 美元，而 2024 年第二季為每股 3.75 美元。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交給 Brian Haney。

Thanks, Brian. The E&S market remains competitive, though the intensity varies by division. We're seeing robust premium growth in Small Business Property, High-Value homeowners, Commercial Auto, Entertainment, and General Casualty. Meanwhile, Commercial Property, Construction, Life Sciences, and Management Liability are facing tougher competition and in some cases, declining premiums.

謝謝，布萊恩。儘管不同部門之間的競爭激烈程度有所不同，但 E&S 市場仍保持競爭態勢。我們看到小型商業房地產、高價值房主、商用汽車、娛樂和一般意外保險的保費增長強勁。同時，商業房地產、建築、生命科學和管理責任面臨更激烈的競爭，在某些情況下，保費還在下降。

The market is clearly more competitive than a year ago. However, much of the aggressive pricing is coming from MGAs and front-end companies. While there are some highly regarded MGAs out there with long track records of success, the model as a whole is challenged by a misalignment of interest. Some front-end companies are posting unsustainable gross loss ratios of 100% or higher signaling capital destruction, notably our largest reserve line, other liability occurrence.

市場競爭顯然比一年前更加激烈。然而，大部分激進的定價都來自 MGAs 和前端公司。儘管有一些備受推崇的 MGAs 有著長期的成功記錄，但整個模式因利益錯位而受到挑戰。一些前端公司公佈的毛損率高達 100% 或更高，且不可持續，這表明資本遭到破壞，尤其是我們最大的儲備線和其他責任事件。

The top six E&S fronting carriers are projecting 2024 gross loss ratio as well below ours despite consistently worse experience in older accident years and consistently worse loss development. Either they, as a group, have experienced a miraculous turnaround where they are under reserving. Eventually, loss reserves turn into paid claims and posting inadequate reserves only pushes the problem down the road for a time. The situation is reminiscent on a smaller scale of the mortgage crisis of 2008, where you had a misalignment of interest between the originators and barriers of risk, which resulted in a fundamental mispricing of that risk.

儘管前六大 E&S 承運商在過去的事故年份中經歷的情況一直較差，損失發展也一直較差，但預計 2024 年的毛損失率將遠低於我們。要么他們作為一個群體經歷了奇蹟般的轉變，他們的儲備不足。最終，損失準備金會變成已支付的索賠，而準備金不足只會暫時拖延問題。這種情況讓人想起 2008 年規模較小的抵押貸款危機，當時發起人和風險障礙之間的利益不一致，導致風險的根本定價錯誤。

Given the size of the problem, this will not be as significant for the economy as the mortgage crisis, but it will be very significant for the insurance industry and for some players in particular. And it's encouraging to us because ultimately, under reserving is a self-correcting problem.

考慮到問題的規模，這場危機對經濟的影響不會像房貸危機那麼嚴重，但對保險業，特別是一些參與者來說，影響卻非常大。這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的，因為最終，儲備不足是一個自我糾正的問題。

We continue expanding our product suite to capture market opportunity. In Q2, we broadened our Agribusiness vertical to include property coverage and launched a new homeowners product in Texas, Louisiana, Colorado, and California with more states on the way.

我們繼續擴大我們的產品套件以抓住市場機會。在第二季度，我們擴大了農業綜合企業垂直領域，涵蓋了財產保險，並在德克薩斯州、路易斯安那州、科羅拉多州和加利福尼亞州推出了新的房主產品，並且正在向更多州推廣。

Submission growth was 9% for the quarter, which is down slightly from the 10% in the first quarter. Our Commercial Property division experienced a decline in submissions, which depressed the company's overall submission growth rate. Without that, the submission growth rate would have been in the low double digits.

本季提交量成長率為 9%，較第一季的 10% 略有下降。我們的商業房地產部門的提交量有所下降，這降低了公司的整體提交成長率。如果沒有這一點，提交成長率將會處於兩位數的低點。

Pricing trends aligned with the Amwins Index, which reported a 2.4% overall decrease. Commercial Property, especially in southeastern wind zones was down 20%. Casualty pricing was mixed, but modestly positive. Some professional and management liability lines were slightly negative.

定價趨勢與 Amwins 指數一致，該指數總體下降了 2.4%。商業地產，尤其是東南風區的商業房地產下降了 20%。傷亡保險定價有好有壞，但整體來說還是略有上漲。一些專業和管理責任險種表現略為負面。

Finally, we continue to be cautious around loss cost trends. Headline inflation is above the Fed's 2% target. And with various governmental policy changes, it's not clear where things go from here, which is even more reason to be cautious and conservative with our reserves.

最後，我們繼續對損失成本趨勢保持謹慎。整體通膨率高於聯準會2%的目標。隨著各種政府政策的變化，事情的未來走向尚不明朗，這更有理由讓我們對儲備保持謹慎和保守。

Overall, we remain optimistic. Our loss results are good. Our growth prospects are good. And as the low-cost provider in our space, we have a durable competitive advantage.

總體而言，我們仍然保持樂觀。我們的損失結果很好。我們的成長前景良好。作為我們領域的低成本供應商，我們擁有持久的競爭優勢。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

說完這些，我就把麥克風交還給麥克。

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're ready for Q&A.

謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，我們已準備好進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）BMO 資本市場 Michael Zaremski。

It's Dan on for Mike. Maybe first just on your longer-term growth target. One of your peers recently lowered their near-term growth target due to the heightened pricing environment competition with two quarters below 10% to 20% that you've guided to. Is there any thought to recalibrating the near-term number? Or is there still a belief in that 10% to 20% number? Thanks.

丹代替麥克上場。也許首先只是專注於你的長期成長目標。由於定價環境競爭加劇，您的一位同業最近下調了近期成長目標，其中兩季的成長率低於您預期的 10% 至 20%。有沒有考慮重新調整近期的數字？或者人們仍然相信 10% 到 20% 這個數字嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. We don't offer a growth prospect because ultimately, we don't really know what that number is going to be. I think 10% to 20% over the course of the cycle is a -- it's a good faith estimate. And it's actually, I think, a conservative one. I think one of the challenges of estimating the near-term growth is that there is going to be a fair amount of variability over the years.

是的。我們不提供成長前景，因為最終我們真的不知道這個數字會是多少。我認為整個週期內 10% 到 20% 是一個合理的估計。事實上，我認為這是保守的。我認為估計短期成長的挑戰之一是多年來會出現相當大的變化。

Right now, we're in a period of heightened competition that's most pronounced in our commercial property division, especially some of that business that's concentrated in larger southeastern wind accounts. That's where we're seeing kind of a big market correction. So we did report the fact that if you take the Commercial Property division out of it, we grew in the mid-teens. We think that's a really healthy number that showcases the competitiveness of our model, the accuracy of our underwriting, the market segment we focus on, the fact that we operate at an enormous expense advantage over our competitors. So we're quite optimistic, but we're also realistic that near term, we've got some headwinds with competition.

目前，我們正處於競爭加劇的時期，競爭最明顯的是商業房地產部門，尤其是一些集中在較大的東南風電帳戶的業務。這就是我們所看到的市場大幅調整。因此，我們確實報告了這樣一個事實：如果將商業房地產部門剔除，我們的成長率約為十五歲。我們認為這是一個非常健康的數字，展示了我們模式的競爭力、承保的準確性、我們關注的細分市場，以及我們相對於競爭對手具有巨大成本優勢的事實。因此，我們非常樂觀，但我們也意識到，短期內我們會面臨一些競爭阻力。

And maybe the last comment I'd make is that the year-over-year comparison in our Commercial Property division will be a little bit easier in the second half of the year than it was the first because we wrote a disproportionate amount of that business in the first half of last year. So we'll get a little bit of less of a headwind, if you will, on the, call it, correction in the Commercial Property division.

也許我要說的最後一點是，今年下半年我們商業不動產部門的年比表現會比上半年稍微好一些，因為去年上半年我們完成了不成比例的這項業務。因此，如果你願意的話，我們在商業地產部門面臨的逆風會小一些，可以稱之為調整。

That's helpful. Thank you. And then switching gears to the underlying margin. Just with rates being negative in the first half of '25 and higher Casualty mix, can you just help us reconcile to source the underlying margin improvement year over year?

這很有幫助。謝謝。然後切換到底層保證金。由於 25 年上半年利率為負，且傷亡組合較高，您能否協助我們協調逐年提高的潛在利潤率？

Well, I mean there's -- we lay it all out in the release, right? It's the current accident year. I think the cat losses were down maybe --

嗯，我的意思是——我們在發佈時已經把一切都說清楚了，對吧？這是目前的事故年份。我認為貓的損失可能減少了--

I just meant the underlying current accident year, yeah.

是的，我只是指的是目前事故發生的年份。

The current accident year is a composite of a variety of lines of business. I think kind of the general movement within that number would be, we continue to be very cautious around long-tail casualty. Brian Haney mentioned the fact that inflation is still higher than the Fed's target. I think longer-tail casualty lines are a little bit more exposed to that.

目前的事故年度是多種業務線的綜合體。我認為這個數字的總體走勢是，我們繼續對長尾傷亡保持非常謹慎的態度。布萊恩·哈尼提到通膨率仍然高於聯準會的目標。我認為較長的傷亡線更容易受到這種影響。

So we're being conservative on the longer-tail casualty. And to the extent that we're over performing, it's probably disproportionately due to our shorter tail lines like property, where the experience has been really quite compelling.

因此，我們對長期傷亡持保守態度。就我們表現優異而言，這可能不成比例地歸因於我們較短的尾線，例如房地產，這方面的體驗確實相當引人注目。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

First question I have is about the Commercial Property business. I was curious to get your sense of the positive gap between expected profitability and technical pricing today. Or put another way, right, how much further do you think prices can drop before the market sort of throws up its hands and says, this is as far as we will go. Any sort of sense you had around that?

我的第一個問題是關於商業房地產業務。我很好奇，想知道您對目前預期獲利能力和技術定價之間的正差距有何看法。或者換句話說，在市場放棄並說「我們只能走到這一步了」之前，您認為價格還能下跌多少？您對此有何看法？

Yeah. Pablo, this is Mike. I would just remind you that we write property coverage in a whole variety of different underwriting divisions or verticals within our company. The Commercial Property division specifically is where we're seeing the most intense competition. And it's not just rates dropping, although that's happening. It's also terms and conditions, line sizes and the like. So it's a whole mix of things.

是的。帕布羅，這是麥克。我只是想提醒您，我們在公司內部的各種不同的承保部門或垂直部門中承保財產保險。具體來說，商業房地產部門是我們看到競爭最激烈的領域。這不僅僅是利率下降，儘管這種情況正在發生。它還包括條款和條件、線路大小等等。所以這是各種事物的混合體。

We also have a Small Property division. We write in the marine coverage. We write high-value homeowners. We have a regular homeowners book. So the other areas are much more attractive to us than in particular, the larger southeastern wind accounts. So it's a mix. But in terms of where the market goes from here, we don't really have any kind of special insight into that.

我們還有一個小型地產部門。我們在海洋報道中寫道。我們為高價值房主撰寫。我們有一本定期的房主手冊。因此，其他地區對我們來說比較大的東南風電場更具吸引力。所以這是一種混合。但對於市場未來的走向，我們確實沒有任何特別的見解。

Okay. And then just switching to, I guess, capital, right -- capital return. So with premium growth flowing from recent levels, right, I think even if you have seen some pickup from the recent trend, your ROE just naturally decline, right? You're just going off like pretty high growth years and you're going to accumulate capital. Is there some ROE level where you might consider leaning more into capital return here? Thanks.

好的。然後我想就轉向資本，對吧——資本回報。因此，隨著保費從最近的水平開始增長，對吧，我認為即使你看到最近的趨勢有所回升，你的 ROE 也會自然下降，對吧？你正經歷相當高的成長年，你將會累積資本。是否存在某個 ROE 水準可以讓您考慮更多地關注資本回報？謝謝。

Yeah. I think we expect our ROEs in the low to mid-20s or better. The returns are always a function of the pricing we get. It's loss cost trends. It's the amount of conservatism in our IBNR that drifts out over time, right? So there's a lot of things that goes into the returns.

是的。我認為我們預計我們的 ROE 將在 20% 左右甚至更高。回報總是取決於我們得到的定價。這是損失成本趨勢。我們的 IBNR 中的保守主義程度會隨著時間的推移而逐漸消失，對嗎？因此，有許多因素都會影響回報。

In terms of return on capital, it's something we look at every year, and we'll continue to adjust. But we want to maintain a healthy capital position, but we don't ever want to hold an excessive amount of redundant capital either. So right now, we address that in a very small way through the dividend and the share buybacks, and we'll continue to evaluate that on a go-forward basis.

就資本回報率而言，我們每年都會關注這一點，並且會持續調整。但我們希望保持健康的資本狀況，但我們也不想持有過多的冗餘資本。因此，目前，我們透過股利和股票回購來小規模地解決這個問題，並且我們將繼續在未來對此進行評估。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

麥可·菲利普斯，奧本海默。

I wanted to get a little more color on -- I think it was Brian's comments on the pricing on the Casualty side, I think you said mixed but positive. Can you provide a little more color on where you're seeing the mix, what you meant by that? And then maybe specifically, if you can drill down into the excess Casualty book and basically what you're seeing on pricing there? Thanks.

我想了解更多詳情——我認為這是 Brian 對 Casualty 方面定價的評論，我認為您說的是混合但積極的。您能否提供更多細節來說明您在哪裡看到了這種混合，您這樣說是什麼意思？然後也許具體一點，如果您可以深入了解超額傷亡保險帳簿以及您在那裡看到的定價基本上是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah. I think some of the -- if you look at the Casualty line, some of the higher return, lower growing lines like, let's say, product liability would be experiencing rate increases on the lower end or rate decreases and then some of the more longer tail lines, let's say, like Construction or excess Casualty would be at the higher end.

是的。我認為，如果您看一下意外險，您會發現一些回報率較高、增長較低的險種，例如產品責任險，其低端費率會上升或下降，而一些尾部較長的險種，例如建築險或超額意外險，其高端費率會下降。

Okay. And then I guess sticking with construction, it's not the first time you've mentioned some adjustments -- actual adjustments on the reserves for construction defect and liability. I guess, can you say what you're seeing for trends there? What trends there and any certain geographies that are more conducive to kind of those adjustments you made?

好的。然後我想繼續討論建築，這不是您第一次提到一些調整——對建築缺陷和責任儲備金的實際調整。我想，您能說說您在那裡看到的趨勢嗎？那裡有哪些趨勢和哪些特定地區更有利於您所做的調整？

I think a lot of the -- California used to be a very big state for us in construction, and we've kind of pivoted away from that. So I would say, to the extent that we were seeing abnormally high loss development that required some sort of adjustment, that's where we were seeing it. And so when we adjusted the loss (inaudible) patterns, we also adjusted our rates, and it resulted in us growing outside of California, which is good.

我認為，加州曾經是我們建築業的重鎮，但我們已經逐漸放棄了這一方向。所以我想說，我們看到的損失發展異常高，需要某種調整，這就是我們所看到的。因此，當我們調整損失（聽不清楚）模式時，我們也調整了費率，這導致我們在加州以外地區發展，這是一件好事。

Okay. So your adjustments -- I'm sorry, your adjustments you made were because of the California book that you're seeing --

好的。所以你的調整——抱歉，你所做的調整是因為你看到的加州書--

I was just giving you some color, detail about what was going on within the construction book. Generally speaking, it was worse in California, where we were a little over concentrated and are no longer over-concentrated.

我只是給你一些有關建築書中發生的事情的細節。總體來說，加州的情況更糟，我們以前有點過於集中，但現在不再太集中了。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Bob Huang, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。

My question is on growth and specifically new business. Not sure if you touched this already, so apologies. Just curious how much of the premium growth for the quarter was driven by new business growth? And broadly speaking, I understand that we're facing challenges in Property, but is there a way to think about the new business and the renewal business dynamics going forward? Are there lines of business that are more exciting than others? Just curious to your view on that.

我的問題是關於成長，特別是新業務。不確定您是否已經接觸過此內容，因此深表歉意。只是好奇本季的保費成長有多少是由新業務成長所推動的？從廣義上講，我知道我們在房地產領域面臨著挑戰，但有沒有辦法考慮未來的新業務和更新業務動態？有哪些業務線比其他業務線更令人興奮？只是好奇你對此的看法。

I don't think we have the stats in front of us to kind of bifurcate the growth between the renewal book and the new business book. But I would say, generally, it would probably be driven mostly by new business because the pricing environment we're in today, we're not seeing dramatic changes. And then what was the second part of the question was --

我認為我們面前的統計數據不足以區分續約書和新業務書之間的成長。但我想說，一般來說，這可能主要受新業務推動，因為我們今天所處的定價環境並沒有看到劇烈的變化。那麼問題的第二部分是什麼--

Yes, just in terms of like if we think about just the growth going forward, is there any specific line of business where you think new business would be more exciting?

是的，就我們考慮未來的成長而言，您認為有哪些特定的業務線的新業務會更令人興奮？

Well, Brian Haney mentioned a whole series of underwriting divisions where we're still seeing very robust top-line growth. And that typically correlates to a better pricing environment and maybe a little more dislocation within the industry, et cetera, so Entertainment, High-Value Homeowners, where we're rolling out a new homeowners product in a variety of states.

嗯，布萊恩·哈尼提到了一系列承保部門，我們仍然看到非常強勁的營收成長。這通常與更好的定價環境有關，也許行業內部會出現更多的混亂等等，因此，在娛樂、高價值房主領域，我們正在各州推出新的房主產品。

Our Small Business Property unit is still growing at a really good clip. I think the pricing there is favorable. I guess we're still a boutique insurance company, but we've got a relatively broad product line, and we participate in a whole range of different industry segments. And it's just a good reminder. They don't all move in tandem. And in general, we feel generally positive about the market.

我們的小型企業地產部門仍在以良好的速度成長。我認為那裡的定價很優惠。我想我們仍然是一家精品保險公司，但我們擁有相對廣泛的產品線，並參與了一系列不同的行業領域。這只是一個很好的提醒。它們並不是齊頭並進的。整體而言，我們對市場持樂觀態度。

Okay. I really appreciate that. Thank you. Maybe just like one follow-up on that comment. Specifically Homeowner, right? 2.7% of your total premium year-to-date is homeowner -- you talked about the excitement of that going forward.

好的。我真的很感激。謝謝。也許就像對該評論的後續跟進一樣。具體來說，房主，對嗎？今年迄今為止，您的總保費中有 2.7% 是房主保費——您談到了未來對此的興奮之情。

Is that purely just driven by what's going on in California that's resulting in Homeowner now growing? Like I'm guessing that business should be growing exponentially from here, does that change your 70-30 split on Casualty and Property going forward? Like how should I think about the growth trajectory there?

這是否純粹是由於加州發生的事情導致房主數量現在不斷增長？就像我猜測從現在開始業務應該會呈指數級增長，這會改變你們未來在意外險和財產險上的 70-30 分成比例嗎？例如我該如何看待那裡的成長軌跡？

Yeah. Look, Homeowners is a volatile line of business where the broader P&C industry is, I think, underwritten that business to a loss for like five or seven years in a row. Historically, it's been mostly standard markets. I think there's now a shift where more of that business is coming into the E&S market.

是的。你看，房屋保險是一個不穩定的業務線，我認為，更廣泛的財產和意外保險行業已經連續五年或七年承保該業務虧損。從歷史上看，它主要是標準市場。我認為現在出現了一種轉變，更多的企業正在進入 E&S 市場。

And so Kinsale is working hard to address the opportunity there. It's partly California, but it's partly in the Southeastern states, Texas around the Mid-Atlantic, driven by coastal wind, but as we -- as Brian, I think, mentioned earlier in his comments, we've also rolled out a new homeowners product in Colorado, for instance.

因此，金塞爾正在努力抓住那裡的機會。一部分是在加利福尼亞州，但一部分是在東南部各州，德克薩斯州圍繞著中大西洋地區，受沿海風的驅動，但正如我們——我想，正如布萊恩之前在他的評論中提到的那樣，我們還在科羅拉多州推出了一款新的房主產品。

So yeah. I think we see that as a growing opportunity for the company in a whole range of different states. And I wouldn't expect any kind of near-term shift in the 70-30 split between Casualty and Property, but depending on how successful we are over the years ahead, it could shift a little bit.

是的。我認為我們認為這對公司在各個不同州來說是一個成長機會。我預計意外險和財產險之間 70-30 的比例在短期內不會發生任何變化，但根據我們未來幾年的成功程度，這種比例可能會略有變化。

Great. Really appreciate the color. Thank you very much.

偉大的。真的很欣賞這個顏色。非常感謝。

Andrew Anderson, Jefferies.

安德魯安德森，傑富瑞集團。

Just looking at the OpEx ratio, it looks like it's been about 8% year to date. And I think you were doing some technology investments that I think have ended. So is that 8% kind of a good run rate for the near term?

僅從營運支出比率來看，今年迄今的比率似乎約為 8%。我認為你正在進行一些技術投資，但這些投資已經結束了。那麼，8% 的運行率在短期內算好的嗎？

Yeah, I think that is.

是的，我認為是的。

Okay. And if we look at the cession ratio, it came in this quarter, and if we go back a few years, it was kind of in a mid-teens territory. Now that was before you were more ready more Property business. So perhaps it's not going to go back towards the mid-teens, but should we be thinking about 17% kind of near term?

好的。如果我們看一下本季的轉讓率，如果我們回顧幾年前的情況，就會發現它的轉讓率處於十幾歲左右的水平。那是在您準備好開展更多房地產業務之前。因此，也許它不會回到十幾歲的水平，但我們是否應該考慮短期內達到 17% 左右？

I mean it's going to -- Andrew, this is Mike. It's going to depend on the mix of business, of course. When we renewed our reinsurance program, we took a little bit bigger net on the Casualty and on the Property, a little bit bigger cat retention. So the reinsurance program will result in a little bit of a shift to a lower ceding ratio, and then the rest of it is going to be mix of business over time. To be honest, I don't have a number to give you, but you can just judgmentally expect it to maybe go down a bit.

我的意思是——安德魯，這是麥克。當然，這取決於業務組合。當我們更新再保險計劃時，我們在意外險和財產險上的淨收益略有增加，巨災保險留存額也略有增加。因此，再保險計劃將導致分保率略微下降，然後其餘部分將隨著時間的推移而混合業務。說實話，我沒有一個數字可以給你，但你可以判斷一下，它可能會下降一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Tumillo, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬‧圖米洛 (Joe Tumillo)。

My first question is regarding the (inaudible) ratio. I believe historically, this has ranged from like 9% to 11%, 12%. So I was just curious to see where we are on that today. And generally, this year, has that ratio remained relatively steady for most positions, excluding Commercial Property?

我的第一個問題是關於（聽不清楚）比例。我認為從歷史上看，這個比例大概在 9% 到 11%、12% 之間。所以我只是好奇想知道我們今天在這方面的進展如何。整體而言，今年除商業房地產外，大多數職位的比例是否保持相對穩定？

Yes. It's been relatively stable.

是的。一直比較穩定。

Okay. All right. Great. Thank you. And then the other question kind of further on the conversation regarding the competition of MGAs. It seems like some of your competitors have also joined that competition, even one mentioning being approached by acquisitions.

好的。好的。偉大的。謝謝。然後另一個問題是關於 MGAs 競爭的討論。看起來你們的一些競爭對手也加入了競爭，甚至有一家提到正在考慮收購。

I'm kind of curious to see where you guys think we are in the cycle with MGAs, given kind of the loss ratios in the history they've been putting up. Like is this something that we kind of expect coming to a head in the near term? I know it's well in the way to predict it, but just kind of curious on your thoughts on this.

我有點好奇，鑑於 MGAs 歷史上的損失率，你們認為我們處於 MGAs 週期的哪個階段。這是否是我們預期在短期內會出現的事情？我知道這很難預測，但我只是有點好奇你對此的想法。

Joe, this is Mike. We don't really have an opinion on that. You guys are in the business for analyzing companies and prognosticating. So we'll leave that in your capable hands.

喬，這是麥克。我們對此確實沒有什麼意見。你們從事的是分析公司和進行預測的業務。因此，我們將此事交給您處理。

Okay, great. Thanks for the time.

好的，太好了。謝謝你的時間。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

馬克·休斯，Truist。

The Commercial Property pricing, how would you describe it sequentially? I think last quarter and this quarter, you said down 20%. Does that mean stable sequentially?

商業不動產定價，您如何依序描述？我認為您說的上個季度和本季下降了 20%。這是否意味著連續穩定？

Yeah, I'll say that's fair.

是的，我認為這很公平。

Very good. How about the current accident year trajectory? I think historically, you've started out the year, I think being a little more conservative, a little higher current accident year loss pick. Anything that you have seen through the six months that might interfere with that historical pattern of improvement in the back half?

非常好。目前事故年份軌跡如何？我認為從歷史上看，從年初開始，你會更加保守一些，今年事故損失選擇會更高一些。在過去六個月中，您發現有什麼事情可能會幹擾下半年的歷史性改善模式嗎？

No, I don't think so. I mentioned earlier that we're -- obviously, we evaluate and analyze our loss development every quarter. And it was in response to a prior question, Mark, we continue to be cautious around the long-tail casualty. And to the extent that there's any shift in the good news coming out, it's largely driven by the short-tail business like Property.

不，我不這麼認為。我之前提到過，顯然，我們每季都會評估和分析我們的損失發展。這是對先前問題的回答，馬克，我們繼續對長尾傷亡保持謹慎。而如果傳出的好消息有任何轉變，那麼很大程度上都是由房地產等短尾業務推動的。

Mike, any more thoughts on this dynamic in Florida, where it seems like more business is going into the E&S market even as the pricing is softening up, why that would be, how long that might last? Is that something you've seen in prior cycles?

麥克，您對佛羅裡達州的這種動態還有什麼看法嗎？儘管價格正在走軟，但似乎有更多的企業進入了 E&S 市場，這是為什麼？這種情況會持續多久？這是您在之前的周期中見過的嗎？

Yeah. I don't think we know we don't have anything definitive to offer. I would just maybe comment that E&S is reaching all-time highs, not just in Florida, but all over the country in terms of its share of the overall premium dollar being placed. And so I think as people become more comfortable with E&S markets, I think the acceptance of the E&S paper has just increased. And it's just becoming more and more common.

是的。我認為我們不知道我們沒有任何明確的資訊可以提供。我可能只想評論一下，E&S 的保費佔比不僅在佛羅裡達州，而且在全國範圍內都達到了歷史最高水平。因此我認為，隨著人們對 E&S 市場越來越熟悉，E&S 論文的接受度也會提高。而且這種情況正變得越來越普遍。

So it's a healthier way to manage an insurance company, especially when we have as dynamic a tort system as we do in the United States. Certainly, Florida has seen a lot of shifts in tort law over the years. And then, of course, on the Property side, with reacting to natural catastrophes, there's been a significant uptick in cat activity in the last five or seven years, and E&S companies with freedom of rate and form can react to that much more quickly than the standard companies can. So it just seems like it's a positive trend all the way around.

因此，這是一種管理保險公司的更健康的方式，特別是當我們擁有像美國一樣充滿活力的侵權法制度時。當然，佛羅裡達州的侵權法多年來發生了許多變化。當然，在財產方面，隨著對自然災害的反應，過去五到七年裡，巨災活動顯著增加，而擁有費率和形式自由的 E&S 公司可以比標準公司更快地對此做出反應。所以這看起來似乎是一個總體積極的趨勢。

Very good. And then one more, if I can. Bryan Petrucelli, the cash flow is up a little bit through six months. What kind of to- line growth do you need in order to keep the cash flow in positive -- well, it's obviously in positive territory, but increasing year over year. If you get 5% growth, will cash from operations move up? Or is there some point at which is payout and losses starts to dampen that? Any general thought would be helpful.

非常好。如果可以的話，再來一個。Bryan Petrucelli，六個月來現金流略有增加。為了維持現金流為正，你需要什麼樣的成長速度？嗯，顯然是正值，而且逐年增加。如果實現 5% 的成長，經營現金流會增加嗎？或者是否存在某個點，即支出和損失開始抑制這一點？任何一般性的想法都會有幫助。

I think that's a fair assumption, Mark.

我認為這是一個合理的假設，馬克。

And I think one thing that's probably depressed it a little bit is paying out all the cat losses from the Palisades wildfire. But these are short-term short-tail claims that get resolved quickly, especially when you have a limits loss. So I think that's probably depressed the growth rate there on a temporary basis.

我認為有一件事可能會讓人有點沮喪，那就是賠償帕利塞茲山火造成的所有損失。但這些都是短期短尾索賠，可以很快解決，特別是當您有限損失時。所以我認為這可能暫時抑制了那裡的成長率。

As long as top line is moving up then cash from operations should likewise move up?

只要營業收入上升，那麼經營現金流也該上升嗎？

Yeah. But it's always a function of your loss experience. And again, I think we're good underwriters. We're establishing very conservative loss reserves. So I'd be optimistic.

是的。但它始終是你的損失經驗的一個函數。再次強調，我認為我們是優秀的承銷商。我們正在建立非常保守的損失準備金。所以我很樂觀。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman），TD Cowen。

So I've been hearing so much about a lot of these start-ups in kind of small, mid E&S. What are you seeing in terms of that competition? Are you seeing a big pickup? And how is that affecting pricing?

我聽到很多關於小型、中型 E&S 新創企業的消息。您對那場比賽有何看法？您看到大幅度上漲了嗎？這對定價有何影響？

I would say that the small start-up balance sheet business are not having a lot of effect just because they're dwarfed by what the MGAs are doing. Those six E&S front-end companies I mentioned, right, something like $6 billion in gross written premium. So it would take a long time for the newer balance sheet businesses to make a debt in that.

我想說，小型新創資產負債表業務之所以沒有發揮太大作用，只是因為它們與總會計師協會所做的工作相比相形見絀。我提到的六家 E&S 前端公司，總保費收入約為 60 億美元。因此，較新的資產負債表企業需要很長時間才能產生債務。

Interesting. And then following up on an earlier question about cessions, ceding off, I think the number is like 17%. And this quarter, I noticed that gross written was up 5%, but net written was up close to 7%. So over time, let's look out maybe 5, 10 years from now, do you see that session declining to as low as 10%. Do you need to see that much over time?

有趣的。然後回答之前關於割讓、放棄的問題，我認為這個數字是 17%。本季度，我注意到總承包額成長了 5%，但淨承包額成長了近 7%。那麼隨著時間的推移，讓我們展望一下從現在起的 5 年或 10 年後，您是否會看到該會議的舉辦率下降到 10% 左右。你需要隨著時間的推移看到那麼多嗎？

We cede more premium on the Property side, where we have significant natural catastrophe exposure and where the limits are higher. So what the ceding ratio looks down -- it looks like down the road is really going to be a function of the mix of business more than anything. I think, on a homeowner's policy, the ceding ratio would be modest. If it's a hotel in the beach in Florida, it's going to be more significant.

我們在房地產方面承擔了更多的保費，因為我們在該領域面臨重大的自然災害風險，而且限額較高。因此，從長遠來看，轉讓比率實際上將更多地取決於業務組合。我認為，對於房主的保險政策來說，轉讓率應該是適中的。如果它是佛羅裡達海灘上的一家酒店，那麼它的意義就更大了。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

So you go through this in the 10-Q, but I was wondering could provide more commentary on the reserve releases you booked this quarter. I think in the 10-Q, you mentioned accident year 2020 to 2024. But I was more curious about the balance of releases between Casualty and Property. I think in 1Q, you highlighted Property more. I'm wondering if that's the case or if there's any material change this quarter. Thank you.

所以您在 10-Q 中經歷了這一點，但我想知道能否對您本季預訂的儲備版本提供更多評論。我認為在 10-Q 中您提到了事故年份 2020 年至 2024 年。但我更好奇的是意外險和財產險之間的賠償平衡。我認為在第一季度，您更加強調了房地產。我想知道情況是否如此，或者本季是否有任何重大變化。謝謝。

Wait, Pablo, you're asking for some commentary on the reserve movements in 2020 through 2024?

等一下，帕勃羅，您是想問 2020 年至 2024 年儲備動向的評論嗎？

No, no, no. What you booked this quarter, right? I think it was from accident years 2020 to 2024. But I was just curious about any color on the lines of business where you release the reserves, right? I think in 1Q, you highlighted Property a bit more. But anyway, any sort of commentary on the release you booked this quarter. Thank you.

不，不，不。您本季預訂了什麼，對嗎？我認為是從 2020 年事故發生到 2024 年事故。但我只是好奇你們釋放儲備的業務線上有什麼顏色，對嗎？我認為在第一季度，您更加強調了房地產。但無論如何，對於您本季預定的發行，您有什麼評論嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. I would say this, that we have -- I think it's about a dozen statutory lines of business we write. This is our 16th year in business. I don't think we have any open claims for the first couple of years we're in business. But in general, there is a lot going on in our reserves every quarter.

是的。我想說的是，我們有——我想我們寫的大約有十幾條法定業務線。這是我們經營的第16年。我認為，在我們開展業務的頭幾年裡，我們不會遇到任何未決的索賠。但總體來說，我們的儲備每季都會發生很多事情。

And so I don't think we want to get into any kind of granularity on a conference call because it's just -- it's too technical. But in broad strokes, I think it's important for the investors to understand, one, that we're being very conservative in setting aside reserves today to pay claims in the future, especially in an era of heightened inflation, et cetera.

因此，我認為我們不想在電話會議上討論任何細節問題，因為這太技術性了。但從廣義上講，我認為投資者必須明白，首先，我們在今天留出儲備金以支付未來索賠方面非常保守，特別是在通貨膨脹加劇的時代等等。

And then the second thing is, in terms of broad movement in our reserves, we're being more conservative, so slower to release on the long-tail casualty lines where we think there's the greatest degree of uncertainty. And then to the extent that there's good news coming out of our results, it's disproportionately on a short-tail business, which is Property for us. 30% of our business is Property. Those claims tend to be reported and resolved relatively quickly compared to the Casualty business. So again, it just kind of reinforcing we're trying to be cautious in building a rock-solid balance sheet.

第二件事是，就我們儲備金的廣泛調動而言，我們變得更加保守，因此在我們認為存在最大不確定性的長尾傷亡線上釋放儲備金的速度會更慢。從我們的業績來看，好消息主要來自短尾業務，也就是房地產。我們的 30% 業務是房地產。與意外險業務相比，這些索賠往往能相對快速地得到報告和解決。所以，這再次強調了我們在建立穩固的資產負債表時要謹慎的態度。

Okay, Mike. Thank you.

好的，麥克。謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Just wanted to go back to the pricing commentary on casualty and the modestly positive. I guess that sounds a little low. It could be partly that you're in small commercial, but it could also be interpreted that you're just competing more to win business. So I guess, is that the case? And do you feel that you're more competitive pricing between the competition and the spread there is growing in your favor?

只是想回到對傷亡和適度積極因素的定價評論。我想這聽起來有點低。這可能部分是因為您從事的是小型商業，但也可能被解讀為您只是為了贏得業務而展開更多競爭。所以我猜，情況是這樣嗎？您是否覺得您的定價在競爭對手中更具競爭力，而且利差不斷擴大，對您有利？

Andrew, I think we said we saw in our book something similar to the Amwins Index, which I think was pricing rate and exposure down about 2.4%. Our large commercial property deals, southeastern wind accounts were down about 20%. Everything else is a little bit of a mix, up or down slightly.

安德魯，我想我們說過，我們在書中看到了類似於 Amwins 指數的東西，我認為定價率和風險敞口下降了約 2.4%。我們的大型商業房地產交易、東南風電帳戶下降了約 20%。其他一切都有點混亂，略有上升或下降。

I would say getting back to my comment about the MGA [premium] business. I think it's true that our Casualty experience has been better than the industry. And so I think there's more of an opportunity for us. Or there's less of a need for us to increase rates than there is for the industry.

我想回到我對 MGA [premium] 業務的評論。我認為我們的傷亡事故經歷確實比業界更好。因此我認為我們還有更多的機會。或者說，我們提高利率的必要性比產業提高利率的必要性還要小。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Michael Kehoe for any closing remarks.

目前我們沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給邁克爾·基霍 (Michael Kehoe) 來做最後演講。

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for listening, and we look forward to speaking with you again down the road a little bit.

好的。好吧，謝謝大家的聆聽，我們期待以後能再次與你們交談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。