Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Kinsale Capital Group fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

早安，歡迎參加 Kinsale Capital Group 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs, and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2023 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its fourth-quarter results.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，在電話會議過程中，金塞爾的管理層可能會發表反映他們的意圖、信念和對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受某些風險因素的影響，可能導致實際結果大不相同。這些風險因素列在公司的各項 SEC 文件中，包括 2023 年 10-K 表年度報告，應仔細審查。該公司已向美國證券交易委員會提交了一份 8-K 表，其中包含宣布其第四季度業績的新聞稿。

Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

金塞爾的管理階層可能也會在今天的電話會議中參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。您可以在新聞稿中找到 GAAP 與這些指標的對帳表，該新聞稿可在公司網站 www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com 上找到。

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's Chairman and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

現在，我將會議交給金塞爾公司董事長兼執行長麥可‧基霍先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. As usual, Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO; and Brian Haney, our President and COO, are joining me this morning for the call.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。與往常一樣，我們的財務長 Bryan Petrucelli；我們的總裁兼營運長 Brian Haney 今早也將參加我的電話會議。

In the fourth quarter, 2024 Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 19.4% and gross written premium grew by 12.2% over the fourth quarter of 2023. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 73.4% and a full-year 2024 operating return on equity of 29%.

2024 年第四季，金塞爾的每股營業收益比 2023 年第四季成長 19.4%，毛承保保費成長 12.2%。本季度，該公司的綜合比率為 73.4%，2024 年全年營業股本回報率為 29%。

Also of note, the appreciation of Kinsale's stock price over the course of 2024 exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index for the eighth time in the last nine years since our IPO back in 2016. These results largely flow from the Kinsale business strategy of small E&S account focus, absolute control over our underwriting and claim handling processes, best-in-class service levels and risk appetite that we provide our brokers, and technology-driven low cost.

同樣值得注意的是，自 2016 年首次公開募股以來，金塞爾股價在 2024 年的漲幅在過去九年中第八次超過標準普爾 500 指數。這些結果很大程度上源於 Kinsale 的業務策略，即專注於小型 E&S 帳戶、對我們的承保和索賠處理流程的絕對控制、我們為經紀人提供的一流服務水平和風險偏好、以及技術驅動的低成本。

As we've said in the past, these advantages have real durability to them. Likewise, we are investing heavily in technology, automation, data, and analytics to drive further gains in the years ahead. Progress in these areas should allow us to gradually and continually improve our expense ratio, our customer service, and the accuracy and competitiveness of our underwriting, all to the benefit of our profitability and growth.

正如我們過去所說的，這些優勢具有真正的持久性。同樣，我們正在大力投資技術、自動化、數據和分析，以在未來幾年取得進一步的成長。這些領域的進步將使我們能夠逐步、持續地改善我們的費用率、客戶服務以及承保的準確性和競爭力，從而有利於我們的獲利能力和成長。

The Southern California wildfires that occurred in January created considerable insured loss for the P&C industry, with estimates mostly in the $30 billion to $50 billion range. For Kinsale, we expect our pre-tax losses net of reinsurance to be approximately $25 million. These losses arise from a mix of personal lines and commercial property business. The overall E&S market in the fourth quarter was generally steady, but with a continued increase in competition.

一月份發生的南加州山火對財產和意外保險業造成了相當大的保險損失，估計損失大多在 300 億至 500 億美元之間。對於金塞爾，我們預計扣除再保險後的稅前損失約為 2,500 萬美元。這些損失源自於個人險和商業房地產業務的混合。第四季電氣與電子市場整體平穩，但競爭持續加劇。

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

現在，我將把電話轉給 Bryan Petrucelli。

Thanks, Mike.

謝謝，麥克。

Another solid quarter with net operating earnings increasing by 19.4%. Now, the 73.4% combined ratio for the quarter included 2.6 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development, compared to 2.3 points last year, with 2 points in cat losses this year, primarily from Hurricane Milton, compared to less than 0.5 point in Q4 of last year.

這是一個穩健的季度，淨營業收入成長了 19.4%。現在，本季 73.4% 的綜合比率包括來自上年淨虧損準備金發展的 2.6 個百分點，而去年為 2.3 個百分點，今年的巨災損失為 2 個百分點，主要來自颶風米爾頓，而去年第四季這一數字不到 0.5 個百分點。

We produced a 21.1% expense ratio in the fourth quarter, compared to 19.9% last year. The expense ratio will fluctuate from quarter to quarter. And when I point you to the full-year expense ratio as a better measure, you can see that our 20.6% expense ratio for the full year compares favorably with the 20.8% last year. That being said, the higher Q4 expense ratio is due primarily to higher variable compensation offset by higher seeding commissions.

我們第四季的費用率為 21.1%，而去年同期為 19.9%。費用率每季都會有所波動。當我向您指出全年費用率是一個更好的衡量標準時，您會發現，我們全年 20.6% 的費用率與去年的 20.8% 相比更為有利。話雖如此，第四季費用率上升主要是由於浮動薪資上升但種子佣金上升所致。

On the investment side, net investment income increased by 37.8% in the fourth quarter over the last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio generated from strong operating cash flows and higher interest rates. The annualized gross return was 4.4% for the year so far, compared to 4% last year. New money yields are averaging in the low 5% range and with [book] yields around 4.5%, so we should see some continued investment income benefit from those higher rates as we move forward.

投資方面，由於強勁的營運現金流和較高的利率推動投資組合持續成長，去年第四季的淨投資收入比去年同期成長了37.8%。今年迄今的年化總回報率為 4.4%，去年為 4%。新資金收益率平均在 5% 以下，帳面收益率在 4.5% 左右，因此，隨著時間的推移，我們應該會看到一些持續的投資收益從這些更高的利率中受益。

Additionally, we're gradually increasing our allocation to common stock from 8% to 10% of cash and invested assets and will eventually increase allocation to 12% over the next year or so. Diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $4.62 per share for the quarter, compared to $3.87 per share for the fourth quarter of 2023.

此外，我們正在逐步將普通股的配置從現金和投資資產的 8% 增加到 10%，並將在未來一年左右最終增加到 12%。每股攤薄營業收益持續改善，本季為每股 4.62 美元，而 2023 年第四季為每股 3.87 美元。

Just a couple comments regarding capital management. We repurchased $10 million in shares during the fourth quarter. I would expect similar modest levels of repurchases each quarter on a routine basis, with larger purchases made opportunistically from time to time.

我只想對資本管理提出幾點評論。我們在第四季回購了價值 1000 萬美元的股票。我預計每季的回購量都會保持類似的適度水平，並且偶爾會伺機進行更大規模的購買。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

接下來我將把發言權交給 Brian Haney。

Thanks, Bryan.

謝謝，布萊恩。

The fourth quarter saw growth in our gross premium of 12.2%, consistent with our expectation of 10% to 20% growth over the long term. Our casualty underwriting divisions grew at 15% for the quarter, while property divisions grew at 6%. Rate declines on larger layered property transactions in particular had a dampening effect on the growth rate in the quarter, as that market is normalized after a period of crisis pricing conditions in the prior years.

第四季我們的毛保費成長了 12.2%，與我們長期 10% 至 20% 的成長預期一致。我們的意外險承保部門本季成長了 15%，而財產險承保部門增加了 6%。尤其是較大分層房地產交易的利率下降對本季度的成長率產生了抑製作用，因為該市場在經歷了前幾年的危機定價狀況後已經恢復正常。

Casualty is still seeing steady growth overall, with excess casualty, commercial auto, and general liability among the fastest growing divisions, and management and professional liability among the most competitive. Catastrophy losses in the fourth quarter were a modest $8 million pre-tax, and as Mike mentioned, our California wildfire estimate is $25 million pre-tax.

意外險總體上仍呈現穩定成長，其中超額意外險、商業車險和一般責任險是成長最快的部門，而管理和專業責任險是競爭最激烈的部門。第四季的災難損失為稅前 800 萬美元，正如麥克提到的，我們估計加州野火損失為稅前 2500 萬美元。

As a reminder, we write catastrophe-exposed property business, including wildfire, hurricane and earthquake, and some flood. But in doing so, we always seek to balance the margin in that business with the potential for excessive volatility. In addition to a careful underwriting approach, we employ a sophisticated risk management strategy and a robust reinsurance program to limit volatility, and we've been successful in that approach for many years now. We don't expect recent catastrophe events in the industry will be enough to change the overall market, but it may create more opportunities in personal insurance, which we are already leaning into.

提醒一下，我們承保的是遭受災難的房地產業務，包括野火、颶風、地震和一些洪水。但在這樣做的過程中，我們總是尋求平衡該業務的利潤和潛在的過度波動。除了謹慎的核保方式外，我們還採用了先進的風險管理策略和強大的再保險計劃來限制波動性，並且多年來我們已經成功地採用了這種方法。我們預計，近期行業發生的災難事件不足以改變整個市場，但它可能會在個人保險領域創造更多機會，而我們已經開始關注這一領域。

Part of Kinsale's growth over the years has been due to a regular expansion of our product lines into adjacent markets. Most recently, we created a new agribusiness underwriting unit that focuses on opportunities in the farm, ranch, and related spaces. This is part of our ongoing effort to gradually expand our product line so that we can offer solutions for all tough-to-place E&S accounts across the US, no matter what coverage or sector of the economy.

多年來，金塞爾的成長部分歸功於我們的產品線定期擴展到鄰近市場。最近，我們成立了一個新的農業綜合企業承保部門，專注於農場、牧場和相關領域的機會。這是我們持續努力的一部分，逐步擴大我們的產品線，以便我們可以為美國所有難以安置的 E&S 帳戶提供解決方案，無論其覆蓋範圍或經濟部門如何。

New business submission growth was 17% for the quarter, down from 23% in the third quarter. This number is subject to some volatility, but we, in general, view submissions as a leading indicator of growth, and so we see that submission growth rate as a positive signal.

本季新業務提交成長率為 17%，低於第三季的 23%。這個數字可能會有一些波動，但總的來說，我們將提交量視為成長的領先指標，因此我們將提交量成長率視為一個正面訊號。

Overall, rates for the quarter were about flat. Excess casualty, commercial auto, and construction were up high-single digits, while larger layered property accounts were down mid to high-teens. All of our other lines were somewhere in between.

總體而言，本季的利率基本持平。超額傷亡、商業汽車和建築險帳戶均上漲了高個位數，而較大分層財產險帳戶則下降了中到高個位數。我們所有其他的線路都處於兩者之間。

We are being more aggressive in pricing in some select areas because the margins are so high that the tradeoff between a lower rate and more growth is worthwhile. Keep in mind, our 29% operating ROE would imply that half of our book is producing margins above that. So by trading away some of that excess profitability on some specific lines of business, we can drive better growth and maximize wealth creation for our stockholders over time.

在某些特定領域，我們的定價更加激進，因為利潤率很高，較低的利率和更多的成長之間的權衡是值得的。請記住，我們的 29% 營業 ROE 意味著我們一半的帳面利潤率都高於這個數字。因此，透過放棄某些特定業務線上的部分過剩獲利能力，我們可以推動更好的成長，並隨著時間的推移最大限度地為股東創造財富。

Overall, we remain optimistic. The results are good, our growth prospects are good, and as a low-cost provider in our space, we have a durable competitive advantage that should allow us to continually -- gradually take market share from our higher expense competitors while continuing to deliver strong returns and build wealth for our investors.

總體而言，我們仍然保持樂觀。結果很好，我們的成長前景良好，並且作為我們領域的低成本提供者，我們擁有持久的競爭優勢，這使我們能夠持續地——逐步地從我們更高成本的競爭對手那裡奪取市場份額，同時繼續為我們的投資者提供強勁的回報並創造財富。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

說完這些，我將把麥克風交還給麥克。

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're ready for questions now.

謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，現在我們可以回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Michael Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hey. Good morning. Back to the commentary on the market environment, I think it sounds like larger shared account property had one of the more meaningful impacts on growth this quarter. If you can kind of confirm that, or I don't know, I think there's a way to look for the 10-K to see the mix of casualty versus property, if you were able to preview it. And just along those lines, too, how's pricing looking in kind of small commercial casualty?

嘿。早安.回到對市場環境的評論，我認為聽起來更大的共享帳戶財產對本季的成長產生了更有意義的影響之一。如果您可以確認這一點，或者我不知道，我認為有一種方法可以查找 10-K 來查看傷亡與財產的組合，如果您能夠預覽它的話。那麼，小型商業災難的定價情況如何？

Mike, this is Mike. I think our mix of business generally is one-third, two-thirds: one-third property, two-thirds casualty. The larger layered deals, as Brian indicated, are under some competitive pressure after just seeing a tremendous inflation in rates over the prior several years. So we think that's a normal evolution of that market. The returns have been extraordinary, and it makes sense.

麥克，我是麥克。我認為我們的業務結構一般是三分之一、三分之二：三分之一是財產險，三分之二是意外險。正如布萊恩所指出的，規模較大的分層交易在經歷了過去幾年的大幅利率上漲後，面臨一些競爭壓力。因此我們認為這是該市場的正常演變。回報非常豐厚，這是合理的。

A lot of capital has flowed back into that space. Our small property divisions are still growing very rapidly, and we're getting positive rate increases there. So we're upbeat on property.

大量資本又流回該領域。我們的小型房地產部門仍然在快速成長，我們的利率正在獲得積極的成長。因此，我們對房地產市場持樂觀態度。

Small casualty, I think, as Brian said, it kind of varies by product line. So on construction, commercial, auto, excess, very healthy rate increases. Other lines like management liability, professional liability, where we've seen some extraordinary levels of profitability, we're trying to be incrementally more aggressive.

我認為，正如布萊恩所說，小規模傷亡因產品線而異。因此，在建築、商業、汽車、超額方面，利率都有非常健康的成長。其他險種，例如管理責任險、專業責任險，我們在這些險種上已經看到了非凡的盈利水平，我們正嘗試逐步加大力度。

Got it. Okay, and that's helpful. Maybe switching gears to the point of excellent profit margins. So you're saying on this call, and you've said in the past too, that you're willing to trade off less excellent profits for what sounds like more growth. Is that actually -- are we actually seeing -- because I know there's an overlaying impact maybe from large property having a negative impact on overall growth. But would you say that we might be reaching a trough in terms of the ability to drop price enough to kind of re-accelerate certain elements of growth on the casualty front?

知道了。好的，這很有幫助。也許可以轉換方向以實現極好的利潤率。所以您在這次電話會議上說過，而且您過去也說過，您願意用不太優厚的利潤來換取更大的成長。這是否確實如此——我們是否真的看到了——因為我知道大型房地產可能會對整體成長產生負面影響。但您是否認為，就降價能力而言，我們可能已經到達了低谷，而降價足以重新加速傷亡方面某些增長要素的增長？

I would say, keep in mind that the margins on some of our highest margin business is extraordinary. When you lower rates in certain select areas, the effect is not immediate on the profitability and the growth. It takes a little while. So I don't think we've hit the point where we haven't exhausted our ability to pull that lever. I'll just put it that way.

我想說，請記住，我們一些利潤最高的業務的利潤率是驚人的。當你在某些特定區域降低利率時，對獲利能力和成長的影響不會立即顯現。這需要一點時間。因此，我認為我們還沒有達到用盡一切力量來拉動這一槓桿的地步。我就這麼說吧。

And in terms of the market, Mike, you've got to remember how diverse it is. It doesn't move monolithically. Large accounts, small, some states versus others, cat-exposed versus non-cat-exposed, clean accounts versus accounts with lost problems, the market's all over the place. But we feel very comfortable with the guidance around 10% to 20% growth.

就市場而言，麥克，你必須記住它有多麼多樣化。它並不是整體移動的。大帳戶、小帳戶、某些州與其他州、有貓風險的帳戶與無貓風險的帳戶、乾淨的帳戶與有遺失問題的帳戶，市場無處不在。但我們對於 10% 至 20% 左右的成長預期感到非常滿意。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Bill Carcache, Wolfe Research.

比爾‧卡卡什（Bill Carcache），沃爾夫研究公司。

Hi. Good morning. Mike, following up on your growth comment, after seeing Kinsale grow at roughly 40% clip since 2019 and hearing you talk about it seemed like that entire timeframe that growth wasn't sustainable. We've indeed now seen your growth rate decelerate much more sharply.

你好。早安.麥克，關於你關於成長的評論，在看到金塞爾自 2019 年以來以大約 40% 的速度增長並聽你談論之後，似乎整個時間段內的增長都是不可持續的。我們現在確實看到你們的成長率急劇放緩。

Is this sort of low-teens growth rate something that you think is now at a level that you would view as sustainable going forward from here? I understand you don't provide specific growth guidance, but I think your investors would really appreciate just hearing your thoughts, particularly those who weren't able to attend the Investor Day on whether you see further deceleration from here versus the idea that at some point growth should plateau and how close are we to that point?

您認為這種低十幾個百分點的成長率現在達到了可持續的水平嗎？我知道您沒有提供具體的成長指導，但我認為您的投資者真的很想聽到您的想法，特別是那些不能參加投資者日的投資者，您是否認為從現在開始增長會進一步減速，還是認為在某個時候增長會穩定下來，以及我們距離那個點還有多遠？

And sort of with that as a backdrop, then could you also frame whatever that top-line view is as you move down the P&L? Is it reasonable for your investors to expect that the business model is capable of generating mid to high-teens EPS growth sustainably through the cycle?

以此為背景，您是否可以在查看損益表時勾勒出頂線視圖？您的投資者是否有理由預期該商業模式能夠在整個週期內持續產生中到高百分比的每股盈餘成長？

Yeah. Bill, I think that 10% to 20% growth is a conservative and good faith estimate as to where we go from here. I think if you look back over five years when we were growing at a 40% clip, that was driven in large part by our business model. We're the low-cost operator. We've got the best customer service in the industry, bar none. I think we've got the broadest risk appetite that we offer our brokers.

是的。比爾，我認為 10% 到 20% 的成長率是我們對未來發展的保守且誠信的估計。我想，如果回顧過去五年，我們以 40% 的速度成長，這很大程度上是由我們的商業模式推動的。我們是低成本營運商。我們擁有業內最好的客戶服務，無可挑剔。我認為我們為經紀人提供了最廣泛的風險偏好。

We've got a handle on technology that -- I'm not familiar with any company that's in a similar position that we are in terms of low cost but also data and analytics. So we're very confident in what we're doing will allow us to continue to grow at that 10 to 20% clip. The 40% growth was driven in part by a level of dislocation around the industry and some of that's abated. We've seen billions and billions of dollars of new capital coming to the industry and so it's -- things are more competitive now than they were, but we're bullish.

我們掌握了科技──我不知道有哪家公司在低成本、數據和分析上能與我們處於類似的地位。因此，我們非常有信心，我們正在做的事情將使我們繼續保持 10% 到 20% 的速度成長。40% 的成長在某種程度上是由產業的混亂程度所推動的，而這種混亂程度目前已經有所緩解。我們看到數十億美元的新資本湧入該行業，因此，現在的競爭比以前更加激烈，但我們仍持樂觀態度。

Thanks, Mike. And just to be crystal clear, your 10% to 20% growth is in reference to top line?

謝謝，麥克。為了更清楚起見，您所說的 10% 到 20% 的成長是指營業收入嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Because you also, in your opening comments, made some comments around expecting to make continued investments that are going to improve the efficiency ratio, and so we should see the rate of revenue growth exceed expense growth with positive operating leverage. You're doing buyback. So the rate of earnings growth would certainly be much stronger than that.

因為您在開場白中也提到希望繼續投資以提高效率比率，所以我們應該看到收入成長率超過費用成長率，並且具有正的經營槓桿。你正在進行回購。因此獲利成長率肯定會比這高得多。

I think it would be, yes, because of productivity gains. Bryan talked about our new money in the investment portfolios being invested at higher rates than the current book yield of the portfolio. Yeah, absolutely.

是的，我認為是這樣，因為生產力提高了。布萊恩談到了我們投資組合中的新資金的投資利率高於投資組合當前的帳面收益率。是的，絕對是如此。

Okay, thank you. That's very helpful. And separately, if I may, for Bryan Petrucelli and Brian Haney on capital and buybacks. I think investors appreciate that Kinsale operates a highly capital-accretive business model that's capable of supporting faster growth environments, but it seems like when growth slows, your buyback capacity increases.

好的，謝謝。這非常有幫助。另外，如果可以的話，我想請 Bryan Petrucelli 和 Brian Haney 就資本和回購問題發表看法。我認為投資者欣賞 Kinsale 的高度資本增值商業模式，該模式能夠支持更快的成長環境，但似乎當成長放緩時，你的回購能力就會增加。

So I think following up on that thought, how much capital does Kinsale need to operate the business if gross written premium growth remains their current levels? Is the 23,000 sort of shares that you repurchase this quarter a reasonable run rate for investors to expect like sort of steady state and then you would be adding additional buyback on top of that if you want it to be opportunistic? Maybe if you could just frame how to think about those dynamics. Thank you.

因此，我認為，根據這個想法，如果總承保保費增長保持當前水平，金塞爾需要多少資本來運營業務？您本季回購的 23,000 股股票是否是投資者所期望的合理運行率，例如穩定狀態，然後如果您想抓住機會，您會在此基礎上增加額外的回購嗎？也許如果你能構思一下如何思考這些動態。謝謝。

Yeah. Bill, this is Mike. If you look at our current buyback strategy, it's similar to our dividend strategy in that it's very modest. And as Bryan said in his comments at the beginning of the call, we expect to make modest buybacks each quarter. I think the fourth quarter is a good indicator of what we mean by that.

是的。比爾，這是麥克。如果你看看我們目前的回購策略，它與我們的股利策略類似，非常溫和。正如布萊恩在電話會議開始時的評論中所說，我們預計每季都會進行適度的回購。我認為第四季度可以很好地表明我們的觀點。

And then -- hey, we're always prepared to move opportunistically if something arises where that makes sense. But the dividend that we have is very modest. It's grown incrementally over the years. I think the share buybacks is also kind of a modest capital allocation strategy.

然後——嘿，如果出現有意義的事情，我們總是準備好抓住機會。但我們的紅利非常微薄。多年來，它逐漸成長。我認為股票回購也是一種適度的資本配置策略。

And there's -- the capital model that we use to manage the business has a fair degree of complexity to it that I don't think it would be prudent to get into that on the call. But in general, we're going to always make sure we have enough capital to maintain our rating and satisfy the regulators. But we don't want to have a super abundance of capital beyond what's required for that. And so we think of the dividend and the buybacks as a way to address excess capital over the years ahead.

而且，我們用來管理業務的資本模型有相當程度的複雜性，因此我認為在電話會議上討論這個問題並不明智。但總的來說，我們將始終確保我們有足夠的資本來維持我們的評級並滿足監管機構的要求。但我們不希望擁有超出實際需求的過多資本。因此，我們認為股利和回購是未來幾年解決資本過剩問題的一種方式。

Thank you. I appreciate you taking my questions.

謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。

Mark Hughes, Truist Securities.

馬克‧休斯 (Mark Hughes)，Truist Securities。

Yeah, thank you. Anything on January results, given that we're midway through February, that you'd call out?

是的，謝謝。考慮到現在已經是二月中旬，您對一月份的結果有什麼要說的嗎？

Well, I don't think we want to comment on January. But Mark, we've reiterated our confidence in the 10% to 20% growth. And we've talked about the cat loss on the wildfires in Los Angeles. So that's probably where we want to go at this point.

嗯，我想我們不想對一月份發表評論。但是馬克，我們重申了對 10% 到 20% 成長的信心。我們也討論了洛杉磯野火中貓咪的損失。這可能就是我們現在想要去的地方。

The expense ratio was a little bit higher this quarter. Bryan Petrucelli, anything unusual in that?

本季的費用率略高。Bryan Petrucelli，這有什麼不尋常的嗎？

As I commented in my notes, it's largely driven by an increase in variable compensation. And as we've talked in the past, that ratio is going to jump around quarter to quarter. So as you're sort of trying to model things out, I think looking at that 12-month ratio is probably what you should be -- that's where I'm going to direct you.

正如我在筆記中所評論的那樣，這主要是由可變薪酬的增加所推動的。正如我們過去談到的，該比率將逐季度發生變化。因此，當您嘗試對事物進行建模時，我認為查看 12 個月的比例可能是您應該做的 - 這就是我要指導您的地方。

Yeah. How about the cash flow in an environment where, say, you're in the 10% to 20% range, if you were to parallel kind of a low double-digit quarter, how does cash from operations look? It's been obviously quite strong. It's been helping to support your net investment income. What does it look like in a more modest growth environment? Does that flatten out? Does it go down? How do we think about that?

是的。那麼，在現金流量處於 10% 到 20% 範圍內的環境下，如果您要與低兩位數的季度並行，那麼經營活動現金流情況如何？顯然它的威力相當強大。它一直在幫助支持您的淨投資收入。在較溫和的成長環境下，情況會是如何？它會變平嗎？它會下降嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Pretty steady. It should grow at the premium, I think.

相當穩定。我認為它應該會以溢價形式增長。

Very good. And then you talked about leaning into personal lines. I know it's pretty small, but what could that mean for the top line if you do lean into personal lines?

非常好。然後您談到了傾向於個人路線。我知道這個數字很小，但是如果您確實傾向於個人線路，那麼對於營業額意味著什麼？

Yeah, this is Brian Haney. I mean, if you look at it, the homeowner space is larger by itself than the E&S space in the US, and an increasing percentage of it, even though it's small, is moving into the E&S space. So I think there's a huge opportunity for it, especially given like things like highway homeowners in California. It's like -- it's a very concentrated market that's just suffered a giant loss among a small number of players.

是的，我是 Brian Haney。我的意思是，如果你看一下，你會發現在美國，房主領域本身就比 E&S 領域要大，而且儘管規模很小，但其中越來越多的比例正在轉向 E&S 領域。因此我認為這裡有巨大的機遇，尤其是考慮到像加州高速公路的房主這樣的情況。就像——這是一個高度集中的市場，少數參與者遭受了巨大的損失。

So I think there's an opportunity there. I think there's an opportunity to expand what we do in the [manufacturing] space. I think there's an opportunity to expand into sort of adjacent type of businesses like [stick-built] homes or non-manufactured housing homes. All again, these are hard-to-place, catastrophy-exposed, high-margin business, but there's just a lot of it. And right now, I think it's probably one of the harder areas in the overall P&C industry.

所以我認為那裡有機會。我認為我們有機會擴大在（製造）領域的業務。我認為有機會擴展到類似類型的業務，例如 [木結構] 住宅或非預製房屋。再說一遍，這些都是難以定位、易受災難影響、利潤率高的業務，但這樣的業務還有很多。而現在，我認為這可能是整個財產和意外保險行業中最困難的領域之一。

Yeah, and it'll be kind of a gradual expansion over time. So I think it was like 2% of our book last year, but we're optimistic that'll continue to grow quite a bit in the years ahead.

是的，而且隨著時間的推移它會逐漸擴大。所以我認為它占我們去年帳面的 2%，但我們樂觀地認為，未來幾年它還會繼續大幅成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Andersen, Jefferies.

安德魯·安德森（Andrew Andersen），傑富瑞（Jefferies）。

Hey. Good morning. Just thinking about the California loss, maybe a little bit bigger than I would have thought just given exposures in the state as of year-end '23. Could you maybe talk about maybe the size of the gross loss there, where the losses are coming from, and kind of how growth has trended over the last year and maybe how you see it into '25 for California specifically?

嘿。早安.想想加州的損失，可能比我想像的要大一點，因為截至23年底該州的風險敞口。您能否談談那裡的總損失規模、損失來自哪裡、過去一年的成長趨勢以及您對 25 年加州的具體看法？

The gross was about $45 million and the net pre-tax, $20 million. It's a mix of commercial, inland marine, personal lines. I can't really speak to the specific growth rate in California or that area, but Andrew, I would look at it this way. We've always written cat business, because the margins are pretty compelling, and we've always written it with some degree of conservatism around risk management and making sure that we control for the volatility, whether it's wildfire or coastal wind or what have you. And so I think, actually, this is a result that's kind of right in the strike zone for us. It's a very manageable loss on business that throws off pretty attractive margins in general.

總收入約 4,500 萬美元，稅前淨收入約 2,000 萬美元。它是商業、內陸海運和個人航線的混合。我實際上無法說出加州或該地區的具體成長率，但安德魯，我會這樣看待它。我們一直在從事貓險業務，因為利潤率相當誘人，而且我們在風險管理方面也一直保持一定程度的保守態度，確保能夠控制波動性，無論是野火、沿海風或其他什麼。所以我認為，實際上，這個結果對我們來說是相當有利的。這對於業務來說是非常可控的損失，並且總體而言可以帶來相當可觀的利潤。

Thank you. And then on the 17% submission growth, kind of the slowest in a little bit here, but as we turn to '25, and maybe you could just talk about the mix within that 17% if it's more casualty going forward. But I'd also be interested to hear if you're perhaps thinking about kind of increasing your quote to submission ratio or your bound policy to submission ratio to be more competitive and to a certain degree.

謝謝。然後關於 17% 的提交成長率，這裡的成長率有點最慢，但當我們轉向 25 時，也許你可以談談 17% 中的混合情況，如果它在未來更具偶然性。但我也很想知道，您是否正在考慮提高您的報價與提交比率或您的限制政策與提交比率，以在一定程度上提高競爭力。

We are definitely seeing a higher quote to submit ratio. It's -- one of the upsides of lower growth is it makes it easier for us to hit our customer service targets, including our quote ratio standards. So yeah, we are quoting more and we are buying more. And then keep in mind that 17%, that number does jump around.

我們確實看到了更高的報價與提交比率。較低成長率的好處之一是，它使我們更容易實現客戶服務目標，包括我們的報價比率標準。是的，我們的報價更高，購買量也更大。然後請記住 17%，這個數字確實會波動。

Yeah. Is it starting to be a bit more casualty rather than property compared to maybe the last 12 to 18 months?

是的。與過去 12 到 18 個月相比，意外傷害損失是否開始比財產損失更大一些？

Yeah. I mean, it depends on what -- I mean, without getting too much into the weeds, it depends on what specific product you're talking about. We are seeing a lot more personal insurance submissions. We're seeing maybe fewer of the shared and layered submissions, but we're still seeing more inland marine submissions or -- it varies across the book.

是的。我的意思是，這取決於——我的意思是，不必過多地深入討論，這取決於你談論的具體產品。我們看到越來越多的個人保險申請。我們看到的共享和分層提交的內容可能較少，但我們仍然看到更多的內陸海洋提交的內容 - 或者 - 它在整本書中有所不同。

Yeah. And just, I think, I think Brian, you meant we're seeing a lower growth rate in the shared and layered, but it's still growing.

是的。而且，我認為，我認為布萊恩，你的意思是我們看到共享和分層的成長率較低，但它仍在成長。

Right.

正確的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Heleniak, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Scott Heleniak。

I think we lost Scott.

我想我們失去了史考特。

Good morning. Yeah, just wondering if you could comment on the Q4 -- the core accident year loss ratio there, you saw there was improvement year over year. Anything worth calling out, the tick down year over year? I knew you kind of commented before is it sort of improves year-end if lost trends come in better than expected, but anything notable to call out there?

早安.是的，只是想知道您是否可以對第四季度的核心事故年度損失率進行評論，您發現同比有所改善。有什麼值得注意的嗎？我知道您之前評論過，如果損失趨勢比預期，那麼年終的情況是否會有所改善，但有什麼值得注意的嗎？

Scott, I would characterize it as general success across the portfolio. But the impact on that quarter was probably a little bit driven by some pretty exceptional results in the property area, that shorter tail business. So you tend to see those positive results more quickly.

斯科特，我將其描述為整個投資組合的普遍成功。但該季度的影響可能在一定程度上受到房地產領域一些非常出色的業績的影響，即短尾業務。因此您會更快地看到這些正面成果。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I wonder if you could expand on -- you referenced the agribusiness, the new product line there, if you can expand on the kind of the exposure and geographies you might be planning to go there. And then also, any other new products that you want to call out for 2025? I know there was a lot in the previous two years, but anything else to call out there too?

好的。這很有道理。然後我想知道您是否可以擴展一下——您提到了農業綜合企業、那裡的新產品線，您是否可以擴展一下您可能計劃在那裡開展的業務和地理位置。另外，您想在 2025 年推出其他什麼新產品嗎？我知道前兩年發生了很多事，但還有什麼需要指出的嗎？

I'll answer that last question first. Most of the new products we're thinking about for 2025 aren't nearly as significant as, let's say, the personal insurance push we're making in the last few years or the agribusiness. The agribusiness would be virtually everywhere in the United States. The agricultural economy is basically present in every state. That's going to be a mix of casualty and property exposures and then some sort of unique exposures relative to farming and ranch.

我先回答最後一個問題。我們考慮在 2025 年推出的大多數新產品，遠不如我們過去幾年大力推廣的個人保險或農業綜合企業那麼重要。農業綜合企業幾乎遍布美國各地。農業經濟基本上存在於每個州。這將是傷亡和財產風險的混合，然後是與農業和牧場相關的某種獨特風險。

Yeah. So I wouldn't expect any like dramatic new product in 2025, just gradual, incremental moving into adjacent lines, very gradually and slowly so that we don't take excessive risk.

是的。因此，我不會期望 2025 年會出現任何引人注目的新產品，而只是逐步、增量地進入相鄰產品線，非常緩慢地發展，這樣我們就不會承擔過度風險。

Yeah, that makes sense. Just the last one too on the moving up the equity exposure, which you expect to take to 10% and eventually 12%. Is that a similar strategy with using the basically stock ETFs? Is that the way you're going to do that? Just stopping your exposure to the existing investments you have in equities or anything different there?

是的，這很有道理。最後一個也是關於提高股票敞口，你預計會將其提高到 10%，最終達到 12%。這是否與使用基本股票 ETF 的策略類似？你會這麼做嗎？只是停止現有的股票投資還是做其他不同的投資？

Yes, Scott, this is Mike. We have a portfolio that we manage internally. It's kind of a value-oriented, large cap, mostly dividend paying, kind of a buy and hold strategy there. And then we've got the two ETFs with the passive strategy. So it's a mix.

是的，史考特，我是麥克。我們有一個內部管理的投資組合。這是一種價值導向、大盤股、主要支付股息的買入並持有策略。然後我們就拿到了兩隻採用被動策略的 ETF。所以這是一種混合。

Okay. Yeah, we'll do both. Okay.

好的。是的，我們兩件事都會做。好的。

Michael Phillips, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的邁克爾·菲利普斯。

Thanks. Good morning. I'm curious if you provide any updated thoughts on what you're seeing in your GL book, lost trends. And then, I mean, I think your commercial umbrella in excess book isn't that small relative to the overall book. Maybe if you could even go deeper into say what the trends you're seeing in the umbrella piece as well.

謝謝。早安.我很好奇，您是否對 GL 書中所看到的“消失的趨勢”提供任何最新的想法。然後，我的意思是，我認為你的商業保護傘超額帳簿相對於整體帳簿來說並不是那麼小。或許您可以更深入地講講您在整體表現中看到的趨勢。

I don't think we've got a lot of specifics. There's a lot of industry data out there. I think our lost trends would probably conform to what you're hearing. I didn't bring that information.

我認為我們還沒有掌握太多具體資訊。那裡有大量的行業數據。我認為我們失去的趨勢可能與您所聽到的一致。我沒有帶來那個訊息。

I would say just on an absolute basis that the margins in our umbrella book and our GL book are really strong. And unlike -- I saw an interesting chart the other day, our development has been consistently better than the industry's reserve development. So I think we are doing a better job staying on top of those lost trends in the reserving process. I do think that's going to be maybe a problem for the industry going forward.

我想說，從絕對基礎來看，我們的總帳簿和總負債簿的利潤率確實很高。而且不像——前幾天我看到一張有趣的圖表，我們的發展一直好於產業儲備的發展。因此我認為我們在儲備過程中更好地掌握了這些丟失的趨勢。我確實認為這可能會成為該行業未來發展的問題。

Okay. Yeah, thanks, Brian. And maybe one more on California. I mean, given the news that we're kind of hearing about the eating side of the losses there, any chance you'd take your '25 and split it even versus the Palisades?

好的。是的，謝謝，布萊恩。也許還有一篇關於加州的文章。我的意思是，鑑於我們聽到的關於那裡飲食方面損失的消息，您是否有可能拿出 25 美元與 Palisades 平分損失？

It's 101 and zero. It's all Palisades.

是 101 和 0。全是柵欄。

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much.

好的，完美。非常感謝。

Pablo Singzon, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

Hi. Good morning. As you're lowering prices in exchange for growth, is the trade-off confined within a specific line, or are you willing to cross-subsidize across lines? Like using more profitable lines to support less profitable lines, or maybe you're looking at dollar profitability more holistically on an account level basis instead? So just some perspective on how you're carrying out the strategy would be helpful.

你好。早安.當你透過降低價格來換取成長時，這種權衡是否僅限於特定的產品線，還是你願意在各個產品線之間進行交叉補貼？例如使用利潤較高的線路來支援利潤較低的線路，或者也許您是從帳戶層面更全面地看待美元獲利能力？因此，了解您如何實施這項策略將會很有幫助。

Well, I would say we don't cross-subsidize anything because we don't have loss leaders. Every division, every product is supposed -- it has to be able to hit our profitability targets. It is a calculation we are kind of doing at the individual division level. Obviously, some divisions -- all of our divisions are doing well. Some of our divisions are doing remarkably well from a margin perspective. And those are the ones where we're looking at sharpening our pencil and getting a little more aggressive in places.

嗯，我想說的是，我們不進行任何交叉補貼，因為我們沒有虧本銷售。每個部門、每種產品都必須能夠達到我們的獲利目標。這是我們在各部門層級進行的一種計算。顯然，一些部門——我們所有的部門都表現良好。從利潤率角度來看，我們的一些部門表現非常好。這些都是我們正在考慮改進的地方，並且在某些地方變得更加積極主動。

Got you. That makes sense. And then second question, I was hoping you could comment prior to your development this quarter. So favorable overall, but would be curious about the breakdown of positives and negatives. Are you still adding to construction defect research from over the years, and where are you getting the releases?

明白了。這很有道理。然後是第二個問題，我希望您能在本季度的發展之前發表評論。整體來說非常有利，但想知道其優缺點的細分情況。您是否仍在繼續多年來的建築缺陷研究，以及您從哪裡獲得發布的信息？

Well, we talked about property as a short tail line of business, you see those results more quickly. And we've pushed our construction-related book loss ratios, they're well into the 80% range. And that's largely because if you go back to accident years -- I forget where it starts, maybe either '15 or '16, '17, '18, '19 -- we did see the impact of inflation in particular on those lines where the cost of repair, labor costs, et cetera, jumped pretty dramatically in a couple year period.

好吧，我們討論的是房地產作為一條短尾業務線，您可以更快地看到這些結果。我們已將建築相關的帳面損失率推高至 80% 左右。這主要是因為，如果回顧事故發生的年份——我忘了​​從什麼時候開始，可能是2015年、2016年、2017年、2018年、2019年——我們確實看到了通貨膨脹的影響，尤其是維修成本、勞動力成本等在幾年內急劇上升。

So we've raised rates dramatically. Our coverage is a little bit tighter than it used to be. Made a lot of adjustments on the underwriting that gives us confidence that the results for the, say, '20 through '24 are going to be quite a bit better. But we don't know definitively. It's a long tail line. And so we -- just like we do across the whole book, we set aside what we think are very conservative loss reserves. And if there's good news in the future, that'll be great. If not, we're prepared with our current reserves to absorb that.

因此我們大幅提高了利率。我們的覆蓋範圍比以前稍微嚴格一些。對核保進行了大量調整，讓我們有信心，『20年到』24年的業績將會好得多。但我們並不清楚。這是一條很長的尾線。因此，就像我們對整個帳簿所做的那樣，我們留出了我們認為非常保守的損失準備金。如果將來有好消息，那就太好了。如果沒有，我們準備好利用現有儲備來吸收。

Got you. Thanks, Mike. And then sneaking just last one, as a follow-up on the question about the attrition loss ratio, would it be reasonable to assume flat to higher attrition loss ratios, just given the more competitive pricing environment and your strategy of cutting off pricing and growth going forward? Thank you.

明白了。謝謝，麥克。然後偷偷問最後一個問題，作為對員工流失率問題的後續回答，考慮到更具競爭力的定價環境和您未來削減價格與增長的策略，假設員工流失率持平或上升是否合理？謝謝。

Well, it's a broad line with a lot of different component pieces. But in general, as Brian, I think, said earlier, rates are flat for the quarter. So I would make some assumptions based on that.

嗯，這是一條包含許多不同組成部分的廣泛產品線。但總體而言，正如布萊恩之前所說，本季的利率持平。因此我會基於此做出一些假設。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Securities.

道明證券 (TD Securities) 的安德魯‧克利格曼 (Andrew Kligerman)。

Hey. Good morning. Just a little nuance on some of the prior questions. I guess tacking on to the loss ratio question. I mean, you came in at an exceptional 73.4% combined. I mean, I would -- any other company, I would have thought it was their loss ratio, not their combined. And if I look at the chart, and I go back 10 years, I see that you've kind of -- maybe closer to 10 years ago, you were in the low 70s%; one year, you were at 60%. Maybe in the middle years, you were in the low to lower mid-80s%.

嘿。早安.只是針對一些先前的問題有一點細微的差別。我想重點討論損失率問題。我的意思是，你們的綜合得分達到了驚人的 73.4%。我的意思是，我會——在任何其他公司，我都會認為這是他們的損失率，而不是他們的綜合損失率。如果我看一下圖表，並回顧 10 年前的情況，我會發現——可能更接近 10 年前，這一比例處於 70% 以下；一年之後，你的報酬率達到了 60%。也許到了中年，你的成績就在 85% 左右。

So given that the environment is getting a lot more competitive in various areas, any sense of the cadence of what could happen going forward? Could we see kind of a gradual drift into the low-80s% over the next few years?

那麼，鑑於各個領域的競爭環境變得越來越激烈，您對未來可能發生的情況有什麼看法？未來幾年我們是否會看到這一比例逐漸下降至 80% 以下？

I think that's certainly possible. We want to maximize wealth building for our stockholders. And I think you do that by balancing profitability and growth. And I think that's what Brian's trying to address earlier with his comments around fine-tuning our pricing on certain ultra-high margin lines. But in general, I think what we're going to maintain is best-in-class profitability, very strong growth rates, and we expect Kinsale's stock price to appreciate in value in the years ahead.

我認為這當然是可能的。我們希望最大限度地為股東創造財富。我認為您可以透過平衡盈利能力和成長來做到這一點。我認為這就是布萊恩之前在關於對某些超高利潤產品線的定價進行微調的評論中試圖解決的問題。但總的來說，我認為我們將保持一流的獲利能力和強勁的成長率，我們預計金塞爾的股價在未來幾年將會升值。

Okay. And maybe on the verticals, could you remind me of how many segments that you have right now similar to the ag segment? And I know you mentioned in an earlier question that this year, it's going to be big in personal lines and ag for growth. Maybe thinking out to '26 or '27, how many of these verticals would you like to add each year? And again, how many do you have right now?

好的。也許在垂直領域，您能否提醒我現在有多少個細分市場與農業細分市場相似？我知道您在之前的問題中提到過，今年我們將在個人線路和農業方面大力發展。也許想想到 26 年或 27 年，您每年想要增加多少個這樣的垂直產業？再說一遍，你現在有幾個？

Yeah, we have 26 now. I would look at these verticals as a judgmental way to divide and organize our underwriting teams around industry segments and coverage. So we want experts at the desk level. And so you have to have some degree of focus to really be an expert at the underwriting and understanding the businesses we're insuring and all the characteristics of those businesses that drive loss exposure and trends on the legal side and who are our competitors and how do they segment and price risk.

是的，我們現在有 26 個。我將把這些垂直行業視為一種判斷方式，圍繞著行業細分和覆蓋範圍來劃分和組織我們的核保團隊。因此，我們需要辦公桌等級的專家。因此，您必須有一定的專注力，才能真正成為承保方面的專家，了解我們所承保的業務，以及這些業務的所有特徵，這些特徵會導致法律方面的損失風險和趨勢，了解我們的競爭對手是誰，以及他們如何細分和定價風險。

So there's no magic number. It certainly may incrementally grow over time. And then just a quick correction on the new business lines, I think Brian said earlier, we don't expect extraordinary growth from our new business. We expand the product line over and over again over the years and we get incremental growth. It's part of our strategy to roll out new products in a methodical fashion to really increase the probability that we're getting things right.

因此，不存在神奇的數字。隨著時間的推移，它肯定會逐漸增長。然後對新業務線進行快速更正，我想布萊恩之前說過，我們並不期望新業務能實現非凡的成長。多年來，我們不斷擴大產品線，並實現了逐步成長。我們有條不紊地推出新產品，這是我們的策略的一部分，這樣才能真正提高我們做對事情的可能性。

I see. And when you say, Mike, expanding incrementally, that would mean within a vertical, maybe adding a new product line?

我懂了。麥克，您說的逐步擴張，是不是意味著在垂直領域內，或許會增加一條新的產品線？

Yeah, incremental expansion of the product. But if we roll out a new underwriting division, we might write several million dollars. We're not going to go corner the market the first year we're in business. And that's been a good strategy for us over the six -- this is our 16th year in business. So it's -- I think it's worked well for us over time.

是的，產品的逐步擴展。但如果我們推出一個新的承保部門，我們可能會承保數百萬美元。我們不會在經營的第一年就壟斷市場。對我們來說，這六年來一直是個很好的策略——今年是我們經營的第 16 年。所以—我認為從長遠來看它對我們來說效果很好。

Super helpful. Thanks a lot.

超有幫助。多謝。

Michael Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

BMO 資本市場負責人 Michael Zaremski。

Okay, great. Just a couple of follow-ups. In terms of employee growth, I know that 10-K is not out, but what do you just say kind of high level as the company gets larger that the employee growth rate has been decelerating a little bit, or any color there?

好的，太好了。只需幾個後續行動。在員工成長方面，我知道 10-K 還沒出來，但您剛才說的是，隨著公司規模的擴大，員工成長率會有所減緩，還是有什麼其他特質？

I think we've gotten incremental gains in productivity every year if you measure that by gross written premium per full-time employee. I think it's gone up every year. And with the work we're doing in the technology area, we certainly would expect that to continue.

我認為，如果以每位全職員工的毛承保保費來衡量，我們的生產力每年都在逐步提高。我認為它每年都在上漲。而且，憑藉我們在科技領域所做的工作，我們當然希望這種情況能持續下去。

Got it. And lastly, going back to kind of loss cost trend and reserves. Tell me if I'm crazy, but given how robust your sales reserve releases have been, relative to the kind of the pricing stats you all give out, it kind of implies that your loss cost trend is closer to zero than to the high-single digits lots of companies talk about on the casualty side. Any comments?

知道了。最後，回顧損失成本趨勢和儲備。請告訴我我是否瘋了，但考慮到你們的銷售儲備釋放有多麼強勁，相對於你們給出的定價統計數據，這有點意味著你們的損失成本趨勢更接近於零，而不是許多公司在傷亡方面談論的高個位數。有什麼評論嗎？

Yeah, our loss trend assumptions would definitely not be zero. I think it would be somewhere in the high-single digits. There's some variability by line of business, but we're definitely conservative on estimating future losses.

是的，我們的損失趨勢假設肯定不會為零。我認為這個數字會是在個位數的高位。不同業務線的情況有所不同，但我們對未來損失的估計肯定是保守的。

Okay. I tried just to spend a pretty steady reserve releases, so I'm positive you're being a little too conservative. Okay, thank you.

好的。我嘗試只是花費相當穩定的儲備金，所以我確信你有點太保守了。好的，謝謝。

Casey Alexander, Compass Point.

凱西亞歷山大，Compass Point。

Hey. Good morning. Most of my questions have been asked and answered, but I have a couple for you. First of all, when you talk about the wildfires with $45 million, of which $25 million is your end of it, is that top of limit without much slack to that number? Or because the losses are kind of across personal and commercial property, is as you adjudicate those losses, is there some opportunity to drive that $25 million number down some?

嘿。早安.我的大部分問題都已經被問過並得到解答了，但我還想問您幾個問題。首先，當您談到用於解決山林火災的 4500 萬美元資金時，其中 2500 萬美元是您自己承擔的，這個上限是否已經達到，並且沒有太大的餘地？或者因為損失涉及個人和商業財產，當您裁定這些損失時，是否有機會將 2500 萬美元的數字降低一些？

Yeah. I mean, it's an estimate, Casey. I mean, we're working through quickly. I mean, property claims typically are resolved much more quickly than they are on the casualty side. But I think it's a good faith estimate and it's certainly possible it could move up or down, but I wouldn't expect it to be dramatically different.

是的。我的意思是，這只是一個估計，凱西。我的意思是，我們正在快速開展工作。我的意思是，財產索賠的解決速度通常比傷亡索賠的解決速度快得多。但我認為這是善意估計，當然它有可能上升或下降，但我預計它不會有太大差異。

Okay, thank you. Secondly, I'm just kind of curious and I'm not trying to irritate you because I know you guys don't like to be measured on a price-to-book basis. You don't think that's appropriate, but the fact of the matter is that there's a lot of investors who look at the price to book value and it just slows them down in terms of whether or not to invest in the company based upon the valuation.

好的，謝謝。其次，我只是有點好奇，我並不是想惹惱你們，因為我知道你們不喜歡以市淨率來衡量。您認為這並不合適，但事實上，有許多投資者只關注市淨率，而這會讓他們猶豫是否根據估值來投資該公司。

So I'm curious why the share repurchase program is sort of an on the run thing that actually is dilutive to your book value when you could easily take some of that capital and better devote it to the dividend, which wouldn't have necessarily the same level of impact on your book value and would still be a positive way of returning capital to shareholders and thus leaving the share repurchase program for periods where there was really excess volatility in the market. I'm just curious.

所以我很好奇為什麼股票回購計劃會成為一種臨時措施，實際上會稀釋你的賬面價值，而你可以輕鬆地拿出部分資本，更好地將其用於股息，這不一定會對你的賬面價值產生相同程度的影響，而且仍然是一種向股東返還資本的積極方式，因此可以在市場波動過大的時候保留股票回購計劃。我只是好奇。

Yeah. So number one, the share repurchase program is very modest. We bought $10 million worth of stock on a market cap of somewhere north of $10 billion.

是的。首先，股票回購計畫非常溫和。我們買了價值 1000 萬美元的股票，市值大約在 100 億美元以上。

The second point I'd make is we respect the fact that a lot of people look at price to book. It's just that you have to remember, we are a very capital-efficient company. So we have enough capital to operate our business and then we have some extra because there's some variability in our business and we have to be able to absorb that. But we have competitors that have tremendous amounts of redundant capital beyond what they need to operate the business.

我要說的第二點是，我們尊重許多人關注市淨率的事實。但你必須記住，我們是一家資本效率很高的公司。因此，我們有足夠的資本來經營我們的業務，我們還有一些額外的資本，因為我們的業務存在一些變化，我們必須能夠吸收這些變化。但我們的競爭對手擁有大量超出業務營運所需的冗餘資本。

So someone that has a very bloated capital base and Kinsale that has a very efficient capital base, and if you're comparing our respected price to book multiples, you're comparing apples and oranges. Whereas if you look at forward earnings or last 12 months earnings, I think it's more of an apples-to-apples comparison.

因此，如果將某人的資本基礎非常臃腫，而金塞爾的資本基礎非常高效，那麼如果你將我們的尊重價格與帳面倍數進行比較，你就是在比較蘋果和橘子。而如果你看未來收益或過去 12 個月的收益，我認為這更像是同類比較。

And then the last point I'd make is we think our stock price is really driven by expectations around future earnings, and we think most investors don't value us on our assets or assets minus liabilities or our book value. So that's the rationale basically.

我要說的最後一點是，我們認為我們的股價實際上是由對未來盈利的預期所驅動的，我們認為大多數投資者不會根據我們的資產或資產減去負債或我們的賬面價值來評估我們。所以基本上這就是理由。

Sure. Thank you for taking my questions.

當然。感謝您回答我的問題。

Okay, you bet.

好吧，你打賭。

We have no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Michael Kehoe for closing remarks.

我們沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給 Michael Kehoe，請他做最後一次演講。

Okay. Well, we appreciate everybody's time this morning. We're optimistic about the future and look forward to talking again here in a couple months. Have a great day.

好的。好吧，我們感謝大家今天早上的時間。我們對未來充滿樂觀，並期待幾個月後再次進行對話。祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。