Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. My name is Abby, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Fourth Quarter 2023 Kinsale Capital Group Inc. Earnings Conference Call.

女士們、先生們，早安。我叫艾比，今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。現在，我歡迎大家參加 Kinsale Capital Group Inc. 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，透過電話會議的過程，金塞爾的管理層可能會發表反映他們的意圖、信念和對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受到某些風險因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2022 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully. The company has a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its fourth quarter results.

這些風險因素列在該公司向 SEC 提交的各種文件中，包括 10-K 表格中的 2022 年年度報告，應仔細審查。該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交了一份 8-K 表，其中包含宣布其第四季度業績的新聞稿。

Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available on the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

金塞爾的管理階層也可能在今天的電話會議中引用某些非公認會計準則財務指標。 GAAP 與這些措施的調節可在新聞稿中找到，該新聞稿可在公司網站 www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com 上查閱。

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將會議轉交給金塞爾總裁兼執行長 Michael Kehoe 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Bryan Petrucelli, our CFO, and Brian Haney, our President and COO, and I, will each offer a few remarks, and then we'll move on to any questions you may have.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們的財務長 Bryan Petrucelli、我們的總裁兼營運長 Brian Haney 和我將各自發表一些評論，然後我們將繼續回答您可能提出的任何問題。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 49% and gross written premium grew by 33.8% over the fourth quarter 2022. For the quarter, the company posted a combined ratio of 72.1% and posted an operating ROE of 31.8% for the full-year 2023. Company's strategy of disciplined E&S underwriting and technology-enabled low costs drive these results and allows us -- active returns and to take market share from competitors at the same time.

2023 年第四季度，Kinsale 的每股營運收益比 2022 年第四季成長了 49%，毛保費成長了 33.8%。該季度，該公司的綜合成本率為 72.1%，營運 ROE 為 31.8 2023 年全年的百分比。公司嚴格的E&S 承保策略和技術驅動的低成本推動了這些結果，並使我們能夠獲得積極的回報，同時從競爭對手那裡奪取市場份額。

Specifically for those newer to the company, Kinsale focuses exclusively on the E&S market -- on writing smaller accounts. We provide our brokers with the broadest risk appetite and the best customer service in the business, and we use our low expense ratio to offer our customers competitively-priced insurance, while also delivering best-in-class margins to our stockholders.

對於新加入公司的人來說，Kinsale 專門專注於 E&S 市場——編寫較小的客戶。我們為經紀人提供業內最廣泛的風險偏好和最好的客戶服務，並利用我們的低費用率為客戶提供價格有競爭力的保險，同時也為我們的股東提供一流的利潤。

Since much of this expense advantage is predicated on our advanced systems, and our team of world-class technology professionals, we believe the competitive advantage of our technology model not only has durability to it, but has the potential to become even more powerful in the years ahead.

由於這種費用優勢很大程度上取決於我們的先進系統以及我們的世界一流技術專業人員團隊，因此我們相信我們的技術模型的競爭優勢不僅具有持久性，而且有潛力在以下領域變得更加強大：未來幾年。

As we have noted over the last several years, the E&S market continues to benefit from the inflow of business from standard companies and from rate increases driven by inflation and relatively tight underwriting conditions. Our growth in the fourth quarter was similar to the third and was largely consistent with the industry commentary about the property market becoming more orderly. We continue to be optimistic about growth in 2024.

正如我們在過去幾年中所指出的，E&S 市場繼續受益於標準公司的業務流入以及通貨膨脹和相對緊張的承保條件推動的費率上漲。我們第四季的成長與第三季相似，與產業對房地產市場變得更加有序的評論基本一致。我們對 2024 年的成長持續持樂觀態度。

Finally, a reminder about our reserving process and approach. We collect premiums upfront and pay claims out over the subsequent several years. Accordingly, we post reserves now for claims we will have to pay in the future. We deliberately set those reserves in a conservative fashion. We set aside more than what we think we will need to allow for some uncertainty in the process, the possibility of a changing towards system and the uptick of inflation we have experienced more recently in the last couple of years.

最後，提醒一下我們的預訂流程和方法。我們預先收取保費並在接下來的幾年內支付索賠。因此，我們現在為將來必須支付的索賠準備金。我們故意以保守的方式設定這些儲備。我們預留的資金超出了我們認為需要的金額，以應對這一過程中存在的一些不確定性、系統改變的可能性以及過去幾年我們經歷的通貨膨脹上升。

Our 2016 through '19 accident years have developed favorably on an inception-to-date basis. But the level of conservatism in those years has been partially eroded by inflation. Subsequent to 2019, we have benefited from very significant rate increases above loss cost trend, and we have used some of that additional rate to add to the level of conservatism in our reserves. Investors should have a high level of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet as we expect overall reserves to continue to develop favorably in the years ahead.

從成立至今，我們的 2016 年至 19 年事故發展順利。但那些年的保守主義程度已部分被通貨膨脹侵蝕。 2019 年之後，我們受益於高於損失成本趨勢的非常顯著的利率上升，並且我們已經使用了其中的一些額外利率來增加我們儲備的保守程度。投資者應對金塞爾的資產負債表充滿信心，因為我們預計未來幾年整體儲備將繼續有利發展。

And with that, I'm going to turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

接下來，我將把電話轉給布萊恩·佩特魯切利 (Bryan Petrucelli)。

Thanks, Mike. Another solid quarter with 33.8% growth in written premium, very low cat activity and net income and net operating earnings increasing by 53.7% and 49.6%, respectively. The 72.1% combined ratio for the quarter included 2.3 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 3.2 points last year and negligible cat losses in either period.

謝謝，麥克。又是一個穩定的季度，承保保費成長了 33.8%，巨災活動非常低，淨利和淨營運收益分別成長了 53.7% 和 49.6%。本季 72.1% 的綜合成本率包括 2.3 個百分點的上一年淨有利損失準備金發展（相較之下去年為 3.2 個百分點）以及兩個時期的巨災損失可以忽略不計。

The expense ratio continues to benefit from higher ceding commissions from the company's casualty and commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements as a result of growth in both of those lines of business. The expense ratio can bounce around a bit from quarter-to-quarter. So we believe it's best to evaluate the components of the expense ratio over a 12-month period.

由於這兩個業務領域的成長，該公司的傷亡和商業財產比例再保險協議中的佣金較高，費用率繼續受益。費用比率可能會逐季度略有反彈。因此，我們認為最好評估 12 個月期間費用比率的組成部分。

For the year, we noted that the expense ratio decreased by 1.4 points from 22.2% in 2022 to 20.8% this year. Breaking this decrease down a little further, 1.2 points came from net commissions with the remaining 0.2 point from other underwriting expenses. On the investment side, net investment income increased by 71.2% over the fourth quarter last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio, generated from strong operating cash flows, and higher interest rates with a gross return of 4% for the year compared to 3% last year.

今年，我們注意到費用率從 2022 年的 22.2%下降到今年的 20.8%，下降了 1.4 個百分點。進一步縮小這一下降幅度，1.2 個百分點來自淨佣金，其餘 0.2 個百分點來自其他承保費用。投資方面，由於強勁的營運現金流帶來的投資組合持續成長以及較高的利率（全年總回報率為4%），淨投資收益較去年第四季增長71.2%與去年的3% 相比。

We're continuing to invest new money and shorter duration securities with new money yields averaging in the low to mid-5% range and duration decreased to 2.8 years, down from 3.5 years at the end of last year.

我們繼續投資新資金和期限較短的證券，新資金收益率平均在 5% 的中低水平，久期從去年年底的 3.5 年降至 2.8 年。

And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $3.87 per share for the quarter compared to $2.60 per share last year.

最後，稀釋後每股營業收益持續改善，本季為每股 3.87 美元，去年為每股 2.60 美元。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

接下來，我會將其轉交給布萊恩·哈尼 (Brian Haney)。

Thanks, Bryan. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 34% in the fourth quarter and 42% for the year. We continue to see growth across our book of business with particularly strong growth in our property divisions along with Entertainment, General Casualty, Excess Casualty and Commercial Auto divisions.

謝謝，布萊恩。如前所述，第四季保費成長 34%，全年成長 42%。我們的業務持續成長，其中財產部門以及娛樂、一般傷亡、超額傷亡和商用汽車部門的成長尤為強勁。

Submission growth continues to be strong and actually experienced a bit of an acceleration to the mid-20s for the quarter. This number is subject to some variability, but in general, we view submissions as a leading indicator of growth. And so we see the submission growth rate as a positive signal. We sell a wide array of products and the rates on those products don't move up in lockstep, but if we boil it down to one number, we see real rates staying up around 5%. Please note, we have been increasing rates above loss cost trend for several years now. And it's also important to stress that our rate change and rate adequacy are 2 different things.

提交量增長繼續強勁，本季度實際上經歷了一些加速，達到了 20 多歲。這個數字可能會有一些變化，但總的來說，我們將提交量視為成長的主要指標。因此，我們將提交成長率視為一個正面訊號。我們銷售多種產品，這些產品的費率不會同步上升，但如果我們將其歸結為一個數字，我們會發現實際費率保持在 5% 左右。請注意，多年來我們一直將費率提高到高於損失成本趨勢的水平。同樣重要的是要強調，我們的利率變化和利率充足性是兩件不同的事情。

As our results demonstrate, our rates were more than adequate. We're continually reviewing our rates and adjusting them based on a number of considerations such as our target return on equity, the market opportunity and shifts in the competition. But in any event, we feel that business we're putting on the books today is the most adequately priced business we've seen in our history. Another thing I'd like to note, we've seen in industry commentary, a trend that some companies are seeing generally favorable development on workers' comp, that's offsetting to some extent, adverse development and general liability.

正如我們的結果所表明的，我們的費率綽綽有餘。我們不斷審查我們的費率，並根據多種考慮因素（例如我們的目標股本回報率、市場機會和競爭變化）進行調整。但無論如何，我們認為今天登記的業務是我們歷史上定價最合理的業務。我想指出的另一件事是，我們在行業評論中看到，一些公司普遍看到工人薪酬的良好發展，這在一定程度上抵消了不利的發展和一般責任。

Just as a reminder, Kinsale doesn't write any workers' comp and general liability represents the largest share of our reserves. So when you see Kinsale having favorable development, you should know that this is a result of diligently staying ahead of the trends in the general liability market, and it does differentiate us somewhat in the industry. That being said, the notable industry trend of weakness in general liability reserves bodes well for us and they serve to prolong the favorable market conditions.

提醒一下，金塞爾不寫任何工人賠償金，一般責任占我們儲備金的最大份額。因此，當您看到Kinsale取得良好的發展時，您應該知道，這是我們努力保持在普通責任市場趨勢領先地位的結果，這確實使我們在行業中脫穎而出。話雖如此，一般責任準備金顯著疲軟的行業趨勢對我們來說是個好兆頭，並有助於延長有利的市場狀況。

Finally, inflation has moderated somewhat from its ties, but getting the inflation rate to the Fed's target is proving to be a much longer effort of many prognosticators and forecast. The longer the elevated inflation persists, the more pressure the industry will see on reserves, particularly on longer tail lines. We are dedicated to staying vigilant about this, so that we may continue to have reserves that are more likely to develop favorably than adversely. Overall, once again, a good quarter, and we're really happy with the results.

最後，通膨已從其關聯中有所緩和，但事實證明，許多預測者和預測者需要付出更長的努力才能使通膨率達到聯準會的目標。高通膨持續的時間越長，該行業對準備金的壓力就越大，特別是對於較長的尾線。我們致力於對此保持警惕，以便我們能夠繼續擁有更有可能順勢發展而不是逆勢發展的儲備。總的來說，這又是一個不錯的季度，我們對結果非常滿意。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

有了這個，我會把它交還給麥克。

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're ready for any questions in the queue.

謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，我們已準備好回答隊列中的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And we will take our first question from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們將回答 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache 提出的第一個問題。

I wanted to follow up on your comments about the conservatism implicit in your reserving. I was hoping you could offer a little bit more color on the loss emergence trends that you're seeing from those that sort of 2019 and prior accident year period, particularly in this environment where as you described, some carriers are experiencing adverse development. And along those lines are latency effects associated with core closures during COVID, resulting in tail elongation. Just curious whether -- how much that remains in focus?

我想跟進您對您的保留中隱含的保守主義的評論。我希望您能對 2019 年和之前事故年度期間看到的損失出現趨勢提供更多信息，特別是在您所描述的這種環境下，一些承運人正在經歷不利的發展。沿著這些思路，新冠病毒期間與核心關閉相關的延遲效應會導致尾部伸長。只是好奇──有多少仍然是人們關注的焦點？

Bill, this is Mike. In general, I would say that there was some disruption with regard to the pandemic. It varies dramatically by accident year and by line of business. I mean there's a level of complexity there that I think would preclude us from getting into too much detail on our conference call. But in general, I would say that Kinsale has done a good job over our -- this is our 15th accident year in business. And I think we've done a really good job in setting aside conservative reserves, not every single year, but effectively, I think 13 of the 14 prior years have developed favorably on an inception-to-date basis. So hopefully, investors look at that track record of conservatism.

比爾，這是麥克。總的來說，我想說的是，大流行造成了一些幹擾。它因年份和業務範圍的不同而有很大差異。我的意思是，那裡有一定程度的複雜性，我認為這會阻止我們在電話會議上討論太多細節。但總的來說，我想說金塞爾在我們的業務中做得很好——這是我們業務中的第 15 個事故年。我認為我們在撥出保守儲備方面做得非常好，不是每年都這樣做，但實際上，我認為前 14 年中有 13 年從成立至今的基礎上發展良好。因此，希望投資者能夠關注保守主義的記錄。

As we just talked about, we've been adding raising our rates ahead of loss cost trend for a number of years in a row now. And that's given us the opportunity to add even more conservatism. I think the conservatism is warranted with the uptick in inflation in general, but changes in Tort law and social inflation, et cetera. I mean there's all sorts of reasons for caution. And I just think it's important for our investors to understand that Kinsale is very proactive and very conservative in setting aside reserves today to pay claims in the future.

正如我們剛才談到的，我們已經連續幾年在損失成本趨勢之前提高費率。這讓我們有機會更加保守。我認為保守主義是有道理的，因為通貨膨脹總體上有所上升，但侵權法和社會通貨膨脹等方面也發生了變化。我的意思是有各種各樣的理由需要謹慎。我只是認為，讓我們的投資者了解金塞爾在今天預留準備金以支付未來索賠方面非常積極主動且非常保守，這一點很重要。

That's helpful, Mike. And I understand you're probably limited in what you can say about that court judgment described in the 8-K that you filed at the end of last year. But following the thought process that you just described at a high level, as we sort of think about social inflation pressures and the risk that those could prove more pervasive in coming years than might have been contemplated at the time that the business was written. You feel like the conservatism that you contemplated from the outset sort of protects you from that dynamic?

這很有幫助，麥克。我了解，對於您去年年底提交的 8-K 中描述的法院判決，您的發言可能有限。但是，按照您剛才在高層次上描述的思維過程，我們會考慮社會通膨壓力以及未來幾年這些壓力可能比撰寫業務時所設想的更為普遍的風險。你覺得你從一開始就考慮的保守主義可以保護你免受這種動態的影響嗎？

Yes. In a nutshell, yes. I would say we can't get into talking about that specific claim because it's active litigation. But we said in the 8-K, we didn't think it would have a material adverse effect. Adequate provision has been made in the consolidated financial statements and existing reserves to account for any liability of the company related to claims such as this legal proceeding. I would say, in general, there's been a lot of commentary over the last couple of years of that social inflation.

是的。簡而言之，是的。我想說我們無法討論該特定索賠，因為它是活躍的訴訟。但我們在8-K中說過，我們認為這不會產生實質的不利影響。在合併財務報表和現有儲備中已提列了足夠的撥備，以彌補本公司與本次法律訴訟等索賠相關的任何責任。我想說，總的來說，過去幾年對社會通貨膨脹有很多評論。

Some of that probably picks up this concept of nuclear verdicts and there has been a dramatic uptick. Can sales and E&S company -- and we make frequent use of coverage limitations to help us control our exposure to loss. We also tend to focus on smaller accounts, which probably insulates us a little bit. And I think we run a very disciplined underwriting operation. We've got really good systems, which translates into robust data to manage profitability.

其中一些可能採用了核裁決的概念，並且數量急劇增加。銷售和 E&S 公司 - 我們經常使用承保範圍限制來幫助我們控制損失風險。我們也傾向於關注較小的帳戶，這可能會讓我們有點隔離。我認為我們的核保業務非常嚴格。我們擁有非常好的系統，可以轉化為可靠的數據來管理獲利能力。

So it's something that creates, I think, a challenge for the industry. But I think in sales very good at staying ahead of changes in the Tort system. When you add to that the conservatism and how we approach reserving, again, I think investors should have a lot of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet.

因此，我認為這給該行業帶來了挑戰。但我認為在銷售方面非常善於領先侵權制度的變化。再加上保守主義以及我們如何準備金，我認為投資者應該對金塞爾的資產負債表充滿信心。

If I could squeeze in one last one. Are you considering, for Bryan, are you considering extending duration as the debate around the timing of Fed cuts continues? And maybe you could just frame how investors should be thinking about potential downside risk to earnings from a lower rate environment broadly.

如果我能擠進最後一張就好了。對於布萊恩來說，隨著圍繞聯準會降息時間的爭論仍在繼續，您是否正在考慮延長期限？也許你可以框架投資人應該如何考慮較低利率環境對收益的潛在下行風險。

We certainly are keep up with what's going on from an interest rate perspective and an inflation perspective. I think in the near term, we're probably going to continue to invest in that 3-year time frame. But hey, it's something we look at every month and every quarter and working with our investment teams to ensure that we're taking -- being opportunistic, but being aware of rollover risk and what have you.

我們當然會從利率和通膨的角度關注正在發生的事情。我認為在短期內，我們可能會繼續在三年的時間範圍內進行投資。但是，嘿，這是我們每個月和每個季度都會關注的事情，並與我們的投資團隊合作，以確保我們採取機會主義，但要意識到展期風險和你擁有的東西。

We will take our next question from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

我們將回答 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski 提出的下一個問題。

Maybe we can just start on you mentioned the submissions increased a bit into the mid-20s. I know there's some variability you cited on that. But any color there? I feel like insurance investors have been grappling with a potential uptick in flow on the casualty side given social inflationary pressures impacting everyone kind of maybe more than offset or offset by less property flow to the extent property has gotten a lot of price and the wind doesn't blow too tough in '24, but any color would be helpful.

也許我們可以從您提到的到 20 多歲的提交數量增加開始。我知道你提到的這一點有些差異。但那裡有顏色嗎？我覺得保險投資者一直在努力應對傷亡方面潛在的流量上升問題，因為社會通膨壓力對每個人的影響可能會被房地產流量減少所抵消或抵消，以至於房地產價格上漲，而風卻沒有增加。24年不要吹得太猛烈，但任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. I mean one thing to note is the growth rate actually has been relatively steady. So I think if you go back and read the commentary, it's been in that 20 -- low 20s range and slightly accelerated range. I think it just sort of happened, it was a little more acceleration this quarter. That could just be volatility. I would agree that we are seeing, I think, continued casualty submission in inflow, which is probably extending from some of the reserve issues that some of the other competitors are having.

是的。我的意思是值得注意的一件事是成長率實際上相對穩定。所以我認為，如果你回去閱讀評論，你會發現它處於 20 低 20 的範圍內，並且略有加速的範圍。我認為這只是發生了，本季加速了一些。這可能只是波動性。我同意，我認為，我們看到傷亡人數不斷增加，這可能是其他一些競爭對手所面臨的一些儲備問題的延伸。

So -- and you're right, Mike mentioned that the property market is more orderly, but we are still seeing a strong flow of submissions, it's just there's more capacity, and it's just -- it's a little less distressed than it was last year.

所以——你是對的，麥克提到房地產市場更加有序，但我們仍然看到大量的提交申請，只是容量更大了，而且只是——比上次少了一些痛苦年。

On your comments about your technology and how your technology is evolving, it could become more powerful. How would that translate into KPIs we see as investors? Would you potentially get more submissions or just be able to act more quicker on the submissions? Or do you feel like it would just allow you to price risk better or all of the above or any color would be great.

根據您對您的技術以及您的技術如何發展的評論，它可能會變得更加強大。這將如何轉化為我們作為投資者所看到的關鍵績效指標？您是否可能會收到更多提交內容，或者只是能夠更快地對提交內容採取行動？或者您是否覺得它可以讓您更好地定價風險，或者以上所有內容或任何顏色都會很棒。

Well, I think, one of the -- Mike, this is Mike. One of the interesting things about technology is it impacts multiple areas of the business in a material way. So can it speed up customer service? Absolutely. Can it allow us to incorporate more third-party data in how we evaluate an individual risk and segment and price risk and drive a more accurate underwriting model? Absolutely. Can it help us increase the productivity of our workers effectively lowering our expenses? Absolutely.

嗯，我想，其中之一——麥克，這是麥克。技術的一個有趣的事情是它以實質性的方式影響業務的多個領域。那麼它可以加快客戶服務速度嗎？絕對地。它能否讓我們在評估個人風險、細分市場和價格風險時納入更多第三方數據，並推動更準確的承保模型？絕對地。它能否幫助我們提高員工的生產力並有效降低我們的開支？絕對地。

Yes. I mean it's -- for all these reasons and probably others, it's the reason we prioritized that the way we have over the years and continue to make an enormous commitment. I mean, I think about 20%, maybe slightly over 20% of our headcount is in our IT department. And I think that just anecdotally speaks to how important we think it is to our business model and having made technology a core competency of our business 15 years ago when we started the company alongside of underwriting and claim handling. I think it just puts us in a very interesting position today compared to a lot of companies in the industry that maybe aren't quite as far along.

是的。我的意思是，出於所有這些原因，可能還有其他原因，這就是我們多年來優先考慮並繼續做出巨大承諾的原因。我的意思是，我認為我們的員工中有大約 20%，或許略高於 20% 在 IT 部門。我認為，這只是一個軼事，說明了我們認為技術對我們的業務模式有多重要，並且15 年前我們在承保和索賠處理的同時創辦了公司，因此我們將技術作為我們業務的核心競爭力。我認為，與業內許多可能還沒有走得那麼遠的公司相比，今天我們處於一個非常有趣的位置。

I feel like you've been talking about it a lot, but I guess you haven't been longing to say it could kind of decouple your long-term thoughts on growth because I know the company still expects growth over the long term to decline along with the marketplace.

我覺得你已經談論了很多次，但我猜你不想說這可以讓你對成長的長期想法脫鉤，因為我知道公司仍然預計長期成長會下降與市場一起。

And lastly, just quickly on your commentary. So I believe you made the comments in your prepared remarks, Mike, that you added some reserves, some conservatism, which seems prudent in light of higher inflation levels. I don't know if am I understanding that correctly, when we see the statutory data, are we going to see some topping off of certain accident years? Or anything you're trying to tell us there?

最後，快速評論一下你的評論。因此，麥克，我相信您在準備好的演講中發表了評論，您增加了一些儲備，一些保守主義，鑑於通膨水平較高，這似乎是謹慎的。我不知道我的理解是否正確，當我們看到法定數據時，我們是否會看到某些事故年份的結束？或者你想在那裡告訴我們什麼？

Well, I was really speaking more toward a general management approach to the business, which is recognizing that -- of course this is an uncertain business to some extent. There's all sorts of quantitative methods that we use to drive more certainty, but there is an element of uncertainty and we collect premiums upfront. We pay the claims over a number of years. And so I think it's just prudent to be as cautious as possible within reason in terms of setting aside dollars today to pay claims in the future.

嗯，我實際上更多地談論的是業務的一般管理方法，即認識到——當然，這在某種程度上是一個不確定的業務。我們使用各種定量方法來提高確定性，但存在不確定性因素，我們預先收取保費。我們多年來一直支付索賠。因此，我認為在今天預留美元來支付未來的索賠方面，在合理範圍內盡可能謹慎是謹慎的做法。

When inflation picked up, that wasn't really anticipated. I don't know by anybody, but certainly not by us, and so I do think that had a negative impact in the level of conservatism from a couple of those years. But I wasn't really speaking to anything specifically, but we're going to file our case soon and our stat statement soon thereafter and there's a lot of very granular information that people can look at in terms of reserves by accident year and by statutory line of business.

當通貨膨脹加劇時，這是沒有真正預料到的。我不知道任何人，但肯定不知道我們，所以我確實認為這對那幾年的保守主義水平產生了負面影響。但我並沒有具體談論任何事情，但我們將很快提交我們的案件，此後不久我們的統計報表，人們可以根據事故年份和法定準備金查看很多非常詳細的信息。業務範圍。

But just to be clear, I think in the past, you said that every year has developed favorably or most of your year. So are you saying we might see something a little bit different, like as many we'll see probably from many peers when you file the K?

但要明確的是，我認為過去，您說每年都發展順利或大部分時間都發展順利。那麼您是說我們可能會看到一些不同的東西，就像您提交 K 時我們可能會從許多同行那裡看到的那樣？

Our 2011 year developed adversely, it was the first full year we were in business and the company was tiny. I think our ultimate -- I think our losses at the end of 2011 were $12.4 million and it's developed up to $15 million.

我們的2011年發展不利，這是我們開展業務的第一個完整的一年，而且公司規模很小。我認為我們最終的損失是 2011 年底的損失為 1240 萬美元，現在已經達到了 1500 萬美元。

So it's -- yes, we had one bad year, but in general, it's immaterial. The last several years, I think it was Brian Haney made the comments about the fact that we've been getting rate increases ahead of loss cost trend. So again, these are the most conservatively reserved years in our company's history, and it coincides with the market becoming a little bit tighter, if you will, insurance companies having more pricing power.

所以，是的，我們度過了糟糕的一年，但總的來說，這並不重要。在過去的幾年裡，我認為是布萊恩·哈尼（Brian Haney）對我們在損失成本趨勢之前就升息這一事實發表了評論。再說一遍，這是我們公司歷史上最保守的保留年份，而且恰逢市場變得更加緊張，如果你願意的話，保險公司擁有更大的定價權。

So in that favorable pricing environment, yes, we leaned into it and grew our business in a pretty dramatic fashion, but the reserves reflect -- the net of all this is, I think our reserves are in a great spot.

因此，在這種有利的定價環境下，是的，我們傾向於它並以相當戲劇性的方式發展我們的業務，但儲備反映了——所有這一切的淨值是，我認為我們的儲備處於一個很好的位置。

We'll take our next question from Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們將接受 Truist 的 Mark Hughes 提出的下一個問題。

The expense ratio is quite good in the quarter below 20%. With the mix of business you have now, I know you mentioned, I guess, the ceding commission is 120 bps and better acquisition costs. I assume that's the ceding commissions. Is 20% a good bogey, given the current mix, et cetera, for 2024?

本季費用率在20%以下，相當不錯。根據您現在的業務組合，我知道您提到過，我猜，轉讓佣金是 120 個基點，並且收購成本更好。我想這就是放棄佣金吧。考慮到 2024 年目前的組合等情況，20% 是好的柏忌嗎？

Mark, I think that's consistent with what I said, I think looking at the expense ratio over the 12-month period, probably gives you a very good indication of where we expect to be going forward.

馬克，我認為這與我所說的一致，我認為查看 12 個月期間的費用比率，可能會很好地表明我們預計未來的發展方向。

Was there anything else -- anything in the fourth quarter that was unusual? I hear what you're saying, but I'm trying to recall whether the fourth quarter has some seasonality that makes it lower than the full year?

第四季還有什麼不尋常的事情嗎？我聽到你在說什麼，但我想回想一下第四季是否有一些季節性因素導致其低於全年？

No. I would say quarter-to-quarter, there's always going to be a little bit of variability, but there wasn't anything in particular to note in Q4.

不。我想說的是，每季都會有一些變化，但第四季沒有什麼特別值得注意的。

Understood. And then the ceded premiums, 22.5% is -- I assume that goes along with your property exposure, if casualty maybe outgrows property a little bit in coming periods, should that come down? Or what's some rough thoughts there?

明白了。然後，割讓保費 22.5% 是——我認為這與您的財產風險有關，如果在未來一段時間內傷亡人數可能會超過財產，那麼這個比例應該下降嗎？或是有什麼粗略的想法？

It's Mike. The mix of business is always going to impact that. We buy a little more reinsurance on the property side because of some of the volatility that goes with certain accounts that are exposed to natural catastrophe, and we buy more reinsurance when we put up larger limits. So our excess casualty book, the primary policies, we typically keep that.

是麥克。業務組合總是會影響這一點。我們在財產方面購買了更多的再保險，因為某些遭受自然災害的帳戶會出現一些波動，並且當我們設定更大的限額時，我們會購買更多的再保險。因此，我們通常會保留我們的超額傷亡手冊、主要政策。

And then, Brian Haney talked about the accelerating submissions. Will that be accompanied by a little more pricing? Are you pushing a little bit more on the grade in this environment?

然後，布萊恩·哈尼 (Brian Haney) 談到了加速提交的問題。這會伴隨著更多的定價嗎？在這種環境下，你是否會進一步提高成績？

It's not going to affect how we look at price. I mean, we are pushing pricing up, but that's less to do with the submission in flow and more to do with hitting kind of optimizing the wealth building. So we're taking into account all the market conditions and what the competitors are doing and coming up by line with where we're going to push rates. So now going from 20 to low 20s to 25 would not affect how we rate the business.

這不會影響我們對價格的看法。我的意思是，我們正在推高價格，但這與流量的提交無關，而更多地與優化財富建設有關。因此，我們會考慮所有市場狀況以及競爭對手的行為，並根據我們要提高的費率提出建議。因此，現在從 20 到 20 到 25 不會影響我們對業務的評級。

And then just a final question. The property is more orderly. Is it as attractive now, pricing still seems like it's going up and if it was attractive last quarter, it still is attractive now. How are you looking at your appetite for property given your current mix and the price levels?

然後是最後一個問題。物業管理更加有序。現在是否具有吸引力，定價似乎仍在上漲，如果上個季度具有吸引力，現在仍然具有吸引力。鑑於您目前的組合和價格水平，您如何看待您對房地產的興趣？

Well, I guess, I would say -- this is Brian Haney. I would say that prices are still going up. So it's more attractive than it was last year when it was less orderly. So we still see a great opportunity in property.

嗯，我想，我會說——這是布萊恩·哈尼。我想說的是，價格仍在上漲。所以它比去年不那麼秩序井然的時候更具吸引力。所以我們仍然看到房地產領域的巨大機會。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

We will take our next question from Andrew Andersen with Jefferies.

我們將回答安德魯·安德森和傑弗里斯提出的下一個問題。

Maybe going back to pricing and competitive positioning, trying to think about the underlying loss ratio into '24. And how I've been thinking about Kinsale over the past couple of years is you haven't had to compete much on pricing. And I suppose one way of looking at that is the bound policy to issue quote ratio, which hasn't moved much. So it sounds like if you're not competing more in a relative position with pricing versus peers, we could still see flat underlying loss ratios into next year. Is that a fair way to think about the competitive market and underlying margins?

也許回到定價和競爭定位，試著考慮 24 年的潛在損失率。過去幾年我對金塞爾的看法是，你不必在定價上競爭太多。我認為看待這個問題的一種方法是發行報價比率的約束政策，該比率沒有太大變化。因此，聽起來如果你沒有在定價方面與同業進行更多的競爭，我們仍然可以看到明年的基本損失率持平。這是考慮競爭市場和潛在利潤的公平方式嗎？

Andrew, this is Mike. I would probably take issue with the idea that we don't compete on price. I mean we buy in 10%, 12%. I think it varies a little bit by line of business. But we buying 10% or 12% of our new business quotes. And I would say price is the biggest driver. It's a huge concern to our customers. Clearly, the last few years have been a little bit more of a seller's market. So that's given us the ability to raise rates and at the same time, grow the top line at a really good clip.

安德魯，這是麥克。我可能會對我們不進行價格競爭的想法提出異議。我的意思是我們買 10%、12%。我認為，根據業務範圍的不同，情況略有不同。但我們購買了新業務報價的 10% 或 12%。我想說價格是最大的驅動因素。這是我們客戶非常關心的問題。顯然，過去幾年更多的是賣方市場。因此，這使我們有能力提高利率，同時以非常好的速度成長收入。

But you're not completely divorced from sensitivity around price. So it's still a competitive business in terms of where loss ratios can go from here. I mean, we don't really forecast that publicly. But if you take into account all the information we're providing, I think you can probably come up with a good guesstimate.

但你並沒有完全脫離對價格的敏感度。因此，就損失率的未來發展而言，它仍然是一項具有競爭力的業務。我的意思是，我們並沒有真正公開預測這一點。但如果您考慮到我們提供的所有信息，我認為您可能會得出一個很好的猜測。

And in the context of submission flows and maybe rate coming down a little bit in property from some industry data. Just trying to get an idea of the average premium in property versus casualty and if you were to lose some property business because of the pricing dynamic, does the casualty transaction flow overweight that because the average premium there would be higher.

從一些行業數據來看，提交流程和財產率可能略有下降。只是想了解財產與傷亡的平均保費，如果您因為定價動態而失去一些財產業務，那麼傷亡交易流量是否會超重，因為那裡的平均保費會更高。

I would say the average premium for property depends on what sort of property we're talking about. Commercial property would have a relatively high average premium, but our small property team, our high-value homeowners team and our personal insurance book all has relatively low average premiums.

我想說，房產的平均溢價取決於我們所討論的房產類型。商業不動產的平均保費相對較高，但我們的小型房地產團隊、高價值房主團隊和個人保險帳簿的平均保費都相對較低。

I don't -- I wouldn't anticipate a huge impact from -- the market is becoming more orderly, but I don't think it's not a dramatic effect. It just explains why that the property growth rate went from a very, very large number in the fourth quarter of 2022 to a still large, but less large number in the fourth quarter of 2023.

我不認為——我預計不會產生巨大的影響——市場變得更加有序，但我認為這不是一個戲劇性的影響。它只是解釋了為什麼房地產成長率從 2022 年第四季非常非常大的數字變成了 2023 年第四季仍然很大但幅度較小的數字。

And Mike, maybe just one clarification. You mentioned accident year '16 to '19 favorable inception to date. Just want to be clear, that is on both a consolidated basis, but also on general liability casualty basis as well and it's not...

麥克，也許只是一個澄清。您提到了 16 年至 19 年迄今的有利開端。只是想澄清一下，這既是在綜合基礎上，也是在一般責任傷亡基礎上，而不是......

It's on a consolidated basis. As you get down to -- I think we've got about a dozen statutory lines of business. You run into more variability because you got smaller numbers. But on a consolidated basis, we've got a really good track record of posting reserves in a conservative fashion that developed favorably over time.

這是在綜合基礎上進行的。當你認真思考時——我認為我們大約有十幾個法定業務範圍。因為你得到的數字較小，所以你會遇到更多的變化。但在綜合的基礎上，我們在以保守的方式公佈準備金方面擁有非常良好的記錄，並且隨著時間的推移，這種記錄得到了良好的發展。

I guess I was trying to get at, it's not benefiting from property outweighing casualty because you weren't really writing much casualty back then to be -- or property back then to begin with.

我想我是想表達的是，它並沒有從財產超過傷亡中受益，因為你當時並沒有真正寫出太多的傷亡——或者當時的財產。

Yes. It gets pretty complex though, Andrew, because property is a short-tail line that develops pretty quickly. Some of our Casualty business, I would -- I'm not an actuary, but I call it medium tail, right? It's kind of in the middle and then we write a lot of long-tail casualty. I think candidly, our book of business is a nice mix of short, medium and long.

是的。不過，安德魯，它變得相當複雜，因為房地產是一條發展很快的短尾線。我們的一些傷亡業務，我不是精算師，但我稱之為中尾，對吧？它位於中間，然後我們寫了許多長尾傷亡。坦白說，我們的業務手冊是短、中、長的完美結合。

But in general, I would say the Casualty business has performed well. We don't have one line of business for general liability. It's other liability occurrence, other liability claims made, products, liability occurrence, products liability claims made, we may even track the excess separately from the primary.

但總的來說，我認為傷亡險業務表現良好。我們沒有一項一般責任業務。這是其他責任發生、提出的其他責任索賠、產品、責任發生、提出的產品責任索賠，我們甚至可以單獨追蹤主要的超額部分。

So again, I think that's a kind of complexity run-a-muck for a conference call. But in general, I think the takeaway for investors is they should have a lot of confidence in the Kinsale balance sheet. And the reason we're reiterating that is kind of to Brian's point earlier, there's a lot of companies coming out saying, hey, we need to take a big charge because we didn't put enough away in past years. And we're trying to give our investors confidence that, hey, that's not coming here.

再說一遍，我認為這對電話會議來說是一種複雜性的浪費。但總的來說，我認為投資人應該對金塞爾的資產負債表充滿信心。我們重申這一點的原因有點像布萊恩早些時候的觀點，有很多公司出來說，嘿，我們需要承擔很大的責任，因為我們過去幾年沒有存夠足夠的錢。我們正在努力讓投資者相信，嘿，這不會發生。

We will take our next question from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

我們將接受摩根大通的巴勃羅辛宗 (Pablo Singzon) 提出的下一個問題。

First question maybe for Brian Haney. I appreciate the disclosure and submission upon growth, but I was hoping to get some perspective on how policies were growing. Just given that your book is more related to new business than others, would it be reasonable to assume PIF growth is in the same neighborhood of submission count growth? And if not, how much lower?

第一個問題可能是問布萊恩·哈尼的。我很欣賞關於成長的披露和提交，但我希望獲得一些關於政策如何成長的觀點。鑑於您的書比其他書更與新業務相關，假設 PIF 成長與提交數量成長處於同一區域是否合理？如果不是，低多少？

I don't have those numbers off the top of my head. I think the one other way to look at it is if you look at our average premium, it's probably going up a bit. And then if you look at our premium growth and back out our average premium growth, that's going to give you a pretty good estimate of PIF growth. So I would probably say it's going up -- it might be close to submission growth. I don't be guessing if I said anything. It's probably going up somewhere between 20% and 30%.

我腦子裡並沒有這些數字。我認為另一種看待它的方式是，如果你看看我們的平均保費，它可能會上漲一點。然後，如果您查看我們的保費增長並回溯我們的平均保費增長，這將為您提供對 PIF 增長的相當好的估計。所以我可能會說它正在上升——可能接近提交量的增長。我不會猜我是否說了些什麼。它可能會上漲 20% 到 30% 之間。

That makes sense. And then another one for you, Brian. If we assume Kinsale's loss cost increasing in the mid-single-digit neighborhood, right, and couple that with a 5% pricing metric you provided, would it be fair to assume that nominal premiums are growing maybe high single digits, assuming flat risk exposures?

這就說得通了。然後再給你一份，布萊恩。如果我們假設金塞爾的損失成本在中個位數附近增加（右），並將其與您提供的5% 定價指標結合起來，假設風險敞口持平，那麼假設名義保費可能會以高個位數增長是否公平？

So -- yes, it's a short answer. You've got the competing effects of the real rate, the premium trends. So we get -- with inflation being elevated, we do get more premium just by virtue of prices of the underlying products going up and then the loss cost trend offsetting that. So yes, that's what you said as far.

所以——是的，這是一個簡短的答案。你已經得到了實際利率和溢價趨勢的競爭效應。因此，隨著通貨膨脹的加劇，我們確實會因為基礎產品價格的上漲而獲得更多的溢價，然後損失成本趨勢會抵消這一點。所以是的，到目前為止這就是你所說的。

And then third question for Bryan Petrucelli. Those 1.2, 120 bps benefit from net commissions in '24. Was that the full run rate? Or will there be some more of that in '25?

接下來是布萊恩·佩特魯切利的第三個問題。這些 1.2、120 個基點受益於 24 年的淨佣金。這是完整的運行率嗎？或是25年還會有更多這樣的事嗎？

Again, I think that depends on, as Mike mentioned earlier, mix of business, but as that property book grows and becomes a larger percentage of the overall premium base, and we are seeding off more of that business than we do on the casualty side.

再次，我認為這取決於業務組合，正如邁克之前提到的，但隨著財產帳簿的增長並成為整體保費基礎的更大比例，我們正在播種比傷亡方面更多的業務。

It's probably important to remind people that even the business we cede away, we do get a ceding commission back, if you will, from the reinsurers that has some embedded profit in it for us.

也許重要的是要提醒人們，即使我們放棄了業務，如果您願意的話，我們確實可以從為我們帶來一些嵌入利潤的再保險公司那裡獲得退出佣金。

And then last for me, maybe for Mike or Brian Haney. I know this is something we'll see in the filings, but I was hoping you could provide a preview on the components of premium growth this quarter compared to the third quarter, right? And I'm thinking specifically of the breakdown between Property, which I think grew more than 80% in the third quarter and Casualty, which grew about 20%. Seems like the growth rates for those lines are fairly consistent in fourth quarter, would you agree or disagree with that?

最後對我來說，也許對麥克或布萊恩哈尼來說。我知道這是我們將在文件中看到的內容，但我希望您能提供本季度與第三季度相比保費增長組成部分的預覽，對吧？我特別考慮了財產險和意外險險之間的細分，我認為財產險在第三季增長了 80% 以上，意外險增長了約 20%。看起來這些線路的成長率在第四季相當一致，您同意還是不同意？

Well, I mean, property grew at a robust clip in the fourth quarter. Casualty, as Brian said, pretty steady, but very strong double-digit growth.

嗯，我的意思是，第四季房地產成長強勁。正如布萊恩所說，傷亡人數相當穩定，但呈現非常強勁的兩位數成長。

Transportation segment grew fairly well. Professional lines probably grew a little bit less than the rest of the book. So I think what you said was accurate.

交通運輸板塊成長較好。專業線的成長可能比本書的其餘部分少。所以我認為你說的是準確的。

We will take some follow-up questions from Mark Hughes with Truist.

我們將回答 Mark Hughes 和 Truist 提出的一些後續問題。

The current accident year losses ex cat were flat for the full year compared to 2022, given what you see in terms of mix of business, loss cost trends, all of that. Is that a good starting point for 2024 understanding that you do have seasonality in that tend to be higher in the early part of the year and lower as the year progresses?

考慮到您在業務組合、損失成本趨勢等方面所看到的情況，與 2022 年相比，當前事故年的損失（除貓外）全年持平。對於 2024 年而言，這是一個很好的起點嗎？因為您確實存在季節性，因為季節性往往在年初較高，而隨著時間的推移而較低？

Well, we don't forecast that, but if you said that's what you're going to do, I wouldn't -- I don't think we'd take issue with that.

好吧，我們沒有預測到這一點，但如果你說那就是你要做的，我不會——我認為我們不會對此提出異議。

We will take follow-up questions from Mike Zaremski with BMO.

我們將回答來自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski 的後續問題。

Real quick. I know you gave us some nuggets on the expense ratio pushes and pulls in the prepared remarks. So I guess we can just use that to think through the forward '24 numbers, unless you wanted to kind of maybe hold our hands a little bit more and help us think through how much of is going to run rate into the coming quarters?

真快。我知道您在準備好的發言中給了我們一些關於費用比率推動和拉動的信息。所以我想我們可以用它來思考未來 24 年的數字，除非你想多一點握住我們的手，幫助我們思考未來幾季的運行率是多少？

I mean, I don't think we can say any more than we did.

我的意思是，我認為我們不能再說更多了。

Look at the annual.

看看每年的。

If you take a look at the annual expense ratio, and that should be a pretty good guide for you.

如果您看一下年度費用比率，那對您來說應該是一個很好的指導。

We will take follow-up question from Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

我們將接受摩根大通巴勃羅辛宗 (Pablo Singzon) 的後續提問。

I thought I'd just throw in one more on reserves. So recognizing that the overall reserve position is good. Maybe this one is for Mike. I think in the past, you had called out pressure in specific lines, if I remember correctly, it was I think construction, right? I was wondering if you could provide a perspective on sort of where -- recognizing the overall book is in a good spot, but are there lines of business or classes where you're probably more crisp than others?

我想我應該再投入一筆儲備金。因此認識到整體儲備狀況良好。也許這個是給麥克的。我想以前你在具體的線路上喊過壓力，如果我沒記錯的話，我想是施工吧？我想知道你是否可以提供一個觀點——認識到整本書都處於一個很好的位置，但是是否有一些業務或課程你可能比其他人更清晰？

Well, what's unique to construction, Pablo, is the fact that it's one of our longer tail lines of business, specifically a component of the construction business, which we call construction defect. They're typically water intrusion claims, sometimes the water intrusion is so slow that the property owner isn't even aware of it for a number of years. And by the time it's discovered, it could be an extensive renovation, $1 million claim.

嗯，巴勃羅，建築業的獨特之處在於它是我們的長尾業務之一，特別是建築業務的一個組成部分，我們稱之為建築缺陷。它們通常是水入侵索賠，有時水入侵非常緩慢，以至於業主甚至好幾年都沒有意識到。當它被發現時，這可能是一次大規模的翻修，索賠金額為 100 萬美元。

And these claims can come in late, 5, 7, 9 years later. Sometimes -- California, I think, has a 10-year statute of repose. I think Colorado, maybe like 7 years, other states like Virginia, I think it's 1 year. So it varies a little bit depending on where you are. But the long-tail nature of that business, combined with, I think we hit 9% inflation a couple of years ago. That inflation hit labor costs. It hit building supply costs. So there was definitely an impact on the construction book at Kinsale. Does that answer your question?

這些說法可能會晚一些，例如 5 年、7 年、9 年之後。有時——我認為加州有 10 年的休整期。我認為科羅拉多州可能需要 7 年，其他州如維吉尼亞州，我認為需要 1 年。因此，根據您所在的位置，它會略有不同。但該業務的長尾性質，加上我認為幾年前我們就達到了 9% 的通膨率。通貨膨脹打擊了勞動成本。它打擊了建築供應成本。因此，這肯定對金塞爾的建築預訂產生了影響。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes. And I was wondering, aside from construction, are there any other lines or class where you sort of see not major issues, but sort of these are like, I guess, latent issues emerging or construction sort of like top of mind for you and the rest of the lines are broadly okay?

是的。我想知道，除了構建之外，是否還有任何其他線路或類別，您在其中看到的不是重大問題，但我猜，這些問題就像是潛在的問題正在出現，或者構建對您和您來說是首要考慮的問題其餘線路大致沒問題嗎？

I would say construction is probably the most material. It's a big part of our business. So that kind of stands out to me. I mean, in general, our book of business is performing at a really attractive level. That's why we're publishing these kind of results, not just in the fourth quarter, but for the last several years.

我想說建築可能是最重要的材料。這是我們業務的重要組成部分。所以這對我來說很突出。我的意思是，總的來說，我們的業務表現非常有吸引力。這就是我們不僅在第四季度而且在過去幾年發布此類結果的原因。

Those results are a reflection of a high-performing business even in the face of a lot of conservatism in the reserving. And so even the construction business is generating a healthy return for us. It's just that some of those claims have developed a little bit later than maybe we originally anticipated.

這些結果反映了即使在準備金方面存在大量保守主義的情況下，企業仍表現出色。因此，即使是建築業務也為我們帶來了可觀的回報。只是其中一些說法的發展比我們最初預期的要晚一些。

We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Mr. Michael Kehoe for closing remarks.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。現在我將把電話轉回給邁克爾·基霍先生做總結發言。

Well, thank you, operator, and thanks, everybody, for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with everybody again here very soon. Have a great day.

好的，謝謝接線員，也謝謝大家今天加入我們，我們期待很快能再次與大家交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束，我們感謝你們的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。