Kinsale Capital Group Inc (KNSL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Kinsale Capital Group First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。我叫布倫特，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 Kinsale Capital Group 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Before we get started, let me remind everyone that through the course of the teleconference, Kinsale's management may make comments that reflect their intentions, beliefs and expectations for the future. As always, these forward-looking statements are subject to certain risk factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially. These risk factors are listed in the company's various SEC filings, including the 2022 annual report on Form 10-K, which should be reviewed carefully.

在我們開始之前，讓我提醒大家，在電話會議的過程中，Kinsale 的管理層可能會發表反映他們的意圖、信念和對未來的期望的評論。與往常一樣，這些前瞻性陳述受某些風險因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。這些風險因素列在公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的各種文件中，包括 10-K 表格的 2022 年年度報告，應仔細審查。

The company has furnished a Form 8-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission that contains the press release announcing its first quarter results. Kinsale's management may also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures in the call today. A reconciliation of GAAP to these measures can be found in the press release, which is available at the company's website at www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com.

該公司已向證券交易委員會提交了一份 8-K 表格，其中包含宣布其第一季度業績的新聞稿。 Kinsale 的管理層也可能在今天的電話會議中提到某些非 GAAP 財務指標。可以在公司網站 www.kinsalecapitalgroup.com 上的新聞稿中找到 GAAP 與這些措施的對賬。

I will now turn the conference over to Kinsale's President and CEO, Mr. Michael Kehoe. Please go ahead, sir.

我現在將會議轉交給 Kinsale 的總裁兼首席執行官 Michael Kehoe 先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We will follow our familiar format for today's call, where in Bryan Petrucelli, Kinsale's CFO; and Brian Haney, Kinsale's COO and I will each make a few comments, and then we'll move on to any questions you may have.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我們將遵循我們熟悉的今天電話會議的形式，Kinsale 的首席財務官 Bryan Petrucelli； Kinsale 的首席運營官 Brian Haney 和我將各自發表一些評論，然後我們將繼續回答您可能提出的任何問題。

In the first quarter, 2023 Kinsale's operating earnings per share increased by 50% and gross written premium grew by 46% over the first quarter of 2022. The company posted a 78% combined ratio for the quarter and an operating return on equity of 29%. These favorable results are being driven by the Kinsale business strategy of disciplined E&S underwriting and technology-enabled low costs, which allow us to generate attractive returns and to take market share from competitors at the same time.

在第一季度，2023 年 Kinsale 的每股營業收入比 2022 年第一季度增長了 50%，總承保保費增長了 46%。該公司公佈本季度綜合成本率為 78%，運營股本回報率為 29% .這些有利的結果是由紀律嚴明的 E&S 承保和技術支持的低成本的 Kinsale 業務戰略推動的，這使我們能夠產生有吸引力的回報，同時從競爭對手那里奪取市場份額。

Adding to the Kinsale results for the overall favorable P&C market conditions with a strong and steady flow of business into the E&S market from the standard market, which allows us to expand margins and accelerate growth at the same time as we have been doing for several years now. The Commercial Property market continues to be an area of opportunity and rapid growth for Kinsale. As we discussed last quarter, we balanced the expected strong returns on the property business we write with a variety of controls to limit the increase in volatility.

總體有利的 P&C 市場條件增加了 Kinsale 的結果，業務從標準市場強勁而穩定地流入 E&S 市場，這使我們能夠擴大利潤並加速增長，同時我們已經做了幾年現在。商業地產市場仍然是 Kinsale 充滿機遇和快速增長的領域。正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們平衡了我們承保的房地產業務的預期強勁回報與各種控制措施，以限制波動性的增加。

Specifically, we restrict the concentration of business geographically. We model our portfolio regularly. We manage our individual policy limits very carefully, and we purchased a substantial reinsurance program. Although our commercial and personal lines property premium amounted to 26% of our net written premium volume in the first quarter. The property premiums subject to any material hurricane exposure is just over 10% of Kinsale's total premium. Further, our expected losses relative to operating income in the event of a major storm, have not materially changed even with the considerable growth in premium. Part of achieving long-term success in the P&C business is to consistently establish conservative estimates for future losses.

具體來說，我們在地理上限制業務集中度。我們定期為我們的投資組合建模。我們非常謹慎地管理我們的個人保單限額，並且我們購買了一個實質性的再保險計劃。儘管我們的商業和個人險種財產保費佔第一季度淨承保保費量的 26%。受任何重大颶風影響的財產保費僅佔 Kinsale 總保費的 10% 以上。此外，即使保費大幅增長，我們在發生大風暴時相對於營業收入的預期損失也沒有發生實質性變化。財產險業務取得長期成功的一部分是始終如一地對未來損失建立保守估計。

Kinsale has done just that over the years, and we continue to do so, setting up reserves for future claims that we believe are more than adequate, creating the likelihood that those reserves develop favorably over time. In a period of time with heightened inflation, such an approach is even more important. And as a consequence, investors should continue to maintain a high level of confidence in Kinsale's reserve position and overall balance sheet.

Kinsale 多年來一直這樣做，我們將繼續這樣做，為我們認為綽綽有餘的未來索賠建立儲備金，從而創造這些儲備金隨著時間的推移有利地發展的可能性。在通脹加劇的時期，這種做法顯得尤為重要。因此，投資者應繼續對 Kinsale 的儲備頭寸和整體資產負債表保持高度信心。

Finally, our overall view of the E&S market continues to be positive. The property market, in particular, is in a state of distress, while the casualty market is more orderly and subject to more competition, but still allows for positive rate increases and strong premium growth. We are optimistic for the balance of 2023 and we have a rising sense of optimism about next year.

最後，我們對 E&S 市場的總體看法仍然是積極的。尤其是房地產市場處於困境之中，而傷亡市場更加有序且競爭更加激烈，但仍允許正利率增長和強勁的保費增長。我們對 2023 年的平衡持樂觀態度，我們對明年的樂觀情緒越來越高。

That being said, we also believe our business model of disciplined underwriting and technology-driven low costs will allow Kinsale to deliver best-in-class returns and to take market share even when the competition increases at some point in the future. In a more competitive market, Kinsale will continue to deliver strong returns, but our current growth rate will give way to something more modest, perhaps in the low to mid-teens.

話雖這麼說，我們也相信我們的紀律承保和技術驅動的低成本商業模式將使 Kinsale 能夠提供一流的回報並佔據市場份額，即使在未來某個時候競爭加劇時也是如此。在競爭更加激烈的市場中，Kinsale 將繼續提供強勁的回報，但我們目前的增長率將讓位於更溫和的增長率，也許在十幾歲左右。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bryan Petrucelli.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Bryan Petrucelli。

Thanks, Mike. Again, just a really strong quarter for all the reasons that Mike just mentioned, with 46% growth in written premium, and net and operating income increasing by 76% and 51%, respectively. The 78.2% combined ratio for the quarter included 3.8 points from net favorable prior year loss reserve development compared to 4.7 points last year with less than a point from cat losses in either period.

謝謝，邁克。同樣，由於邁克剛才提到的所有原因，這是一個非常強勁的季度，承保保費增長 46%，淨收入和營業收入分別增長 76% 和 51%。本季度 78.2% 的綜合比率包括 3.8 個百分點，來自去年淨有利損失準備金發展，而去年為 4.7 個百分點，兩個時期的巨災損失都不到一個百分點。

Most of the improvement in the quarterly expense ratio of 19.6% compared to 21.6% in the first quarter of last year, related to ceding commissions from the company's casualty and commercial property proportional reinsurance agreements and is also in line with our 19.9% expense ratio in the fourth quarter of last year.

與去年第一季度的 21.6% 相比，季度費用率 19.6% 的大部分改善與從公司的傷亡和商業財產比例再保險協議中分出佣金有關，也符合我們 19.9% 的費用率去年第四季度。

On the investment side, net investment income increased by 128% over the first quarter of last year as a result of continued growth in the investment portfolio and higher interest rates with a gross return of 3.7% for the quarter compared to 2.5% last year. We continue to monitor Fed actions and any related impact on inflation and interest rates. And given the current inverted yield curve, we're continuing to invest new money in the shorter duration of securities with new money yields averaging close to 5% during the quarter, and our duration decreasing slightly to 3.4 years down from 3.5 years at the end of last year.

在投資方面，由於投資組合的持續增長和利率上升，淨投資收入比去年第一季度增長了 128%，本季度的總回報率為 3.7%，而去年為 2.5%。我們將繼續監測美聯儲的行動以及對通脹和利率的任何相關影響。鑑於目前的收益率曲線倒掛，我們將繼續在較短期限的證券上投資新資金，本季度新資金收益率平均接近 5%，我們的期限從年底的 3.5 年略微降至 3.4 年去年的。

We did have a preferred stock position in SPB Bank and recognized a $4 million realized loss on the sale of that security during the quarter. Book value was positively impacted in the first quarter from a combination of net income and an increase in the fair value of our fixed income securities during the quarter. Notwithstanding the positive Q1 movements, our fixed income portfolio continues to be an overall unrealized loss position resulting from the higher interest rates or so over the past year or so. The company continues to generate strong positive operating cash flows, which gives us the ability to hold these securities to maturity and the higher interest rate environment allows us to invest new money at better yields that I just touched on.

我們確實持有 SPB 銀行的優先股頭寸，並在本季度確認了 400 萬美元出售該證券的已實現虧損。第一季度的賬面價值受到淨收入和本季度固定收益證券公允價值增加的共同影響。儘管第一季度出現積極變化，但由於過去一年左右的利率升高，我們的固定收益投資組合仍然是一個整體未實現的虧損頭寸。公司繼續產生強勁的正經營現金流，這使我們能夠持有這些證券至到期日，而更高的利率環境使我們能夠以我剛才提到的更高收益率投資新資金。

As it relates to capital, we continuously monitor our needs as market conditions change. Given the continued favorable market conditions and related premium growth, there's always the possibility that we'll need additional supporting capital. The support could come in the form of debt or equity with a bias towards debt given our current modest debt to capital position and with any decisions to be made in the second half of the year consistent with our historical approach.

由於涉及資本，我們會隨著市場條件的變化不斷監控我們的需求。鑑於持續有利的市場條件和相關的保費增長，我們總是有可能需要額外的支持資金。考慮到我們目前適度的債務資本頭寸，以及下半年將根據我們的歷史方法做出的任何決定，支持可能會以債務或股權的形式出現，並偏向於債務。

And lastly, diluted operating earnings per share continues to improve and was $2.44 per share for the quarter compared to $1.63 per share last year.

最後，每股攤薄營業收益繼續改善，本季度每股收益為 2.44 美元，而去年同期為每股 1.63 美元。

And with that, I'll pass it over to Brian Haney.

有了這個，我會把它傳遞給 Brian Haney。

Thanks, Brian. As mentioned earlier, premium grew 46% in the first quarter, consistent with the last several quarters and representing a continuation of the previous 4 years where we averaged just over 40% growth annually. Overall, the E&S market remains favorable with strong growth across most of our product line. The property market continues to be hard and in the wake of Hurricane Ian the contraction in industry capacity is continued.

謝謝，布萊恩。如前所述，第一季度保費增長 46%，與過去幾個季度一致，並且延續了前 4 年的平均年增長率，前 4 年的增長率略高於 40%。總體而言，隨著我們大部分產品線的強勁增長，E&S 市場依然有利。房地產市場繼續艱難，在颶風伊恩之後，行業產能繼續收縮。

In addition to our Commercial Property division, we are seeing continued strong growth in our Inland Marine book as well as across most of our casualty divisions. Our energy, general casualty and entertainment divisions, in particular, continued to grow at a significant pace. There are some pockets of business that are more competitive and flat or slower growing, such as management liability and product liability.

除了我們的商業財產部門外，我們還看到我們的內陸海事業務以及我們大部分的傷亡部門都在持續強勁增長。我們的能源、一般傷亡和娛樂部門尤其繼續快速增長。有些業務更具競爭力，但增長持平或較慢，例如管理責任和產品責任。

I want to speak for a moment about the property market in particular. The last few years, the industry has experienced some significant losses. Five of the top 10 costliest natural catastrophes in U.S. history have happened in the last 6 years and 2 of the top 3 have occurred in the last 2 years. This has resulted in carriers dramatically pulling back cutting capacity and raising rates. It has presented a historic opportunity for Kinsale because we came through that same period with record profitability. So now we have the ability to write business at extraordinary rates and terms. The current property -- the current market and property is as hard as we've ever seen, and the rates and terms are as good as we've ever seen.

我想特別談談房地產市場。過去幾年，該行業經歷了一些重大損失。美國歷史上損失最慘重的 10 大自然災害中有 5 次發生在過去 6 年，而前 3 大自然災害中有 2 次發生在過去 2 年。這導致運營商大幅撤回削減運力和提高費率。它為 Kinsale 提供了一個歷史性的機會，因為我們在同一時期經歷了創紀錄的盈利能力。因此，現在我們有能力以非凡的價格和條款開展業務。當前的財產——當前的市場和財產是我們所見過的最艱難的，而利率和條款是我們所見過的最好的。

As Mike said, we are mindful of volatility and so we carefully manage and limit our accumulation of aggregate insured value in order to keep our volatility with an acceptable balance. Submission growth continues to be strong in the low 20% range, which represents a modest acceleration from the previous quarter, but generally consistent with most of 2022. As a reminder, we view submissions as a leading indicator of growth, so that submission growth rate is a positive signal for our market opportunity. We sell a wide range of products and the rates of those products do not move in lock step. But if we boil that all down to 1 number, we see real rates being up a little over 7% in the aggregate during the fourth -- first quarter, a very slight improvement over the fourth quarter.

正如 Mike 所說，我們注意到波動性，因此我們謹慎管理和限制我們積累的總保險價值，以便將我們的波動性保持在可接受的平衡範圍內。提交量增長在 20% 的低位範圍內繼續保持強勁，與上一季度相比略有加速，但與 2022 年的大部分時間基本一致。提醒一下，我們將提交量視為增長的領先指標，因此提交量增長率是我們市場機會的積極信號。我們銷售範圍廣泛的產品，這些產品的費率不會同步變化。但如果我們將所有這些歸結為一個數字，我們會看到實際利率在第四季度總體上上漲了 7% 以上——第一季度，比第四季度略有改善。

The property market is certainly boosting that number. The rate changes for property would be well higher than the average. The rate changes for casualty divisions were very greatly, but overall, it will be less than the average, but still positive, which indicates that the combination of rate changes and premium trends are exceeding loss cost trend. It's important to stress that rate change and rate adequacy are 2 different things. As our results demonstrate, our rates are more than adequate. We are continually reviewing these rates and adjusting them based on a number of considerations such as our target combined ratio, our target return on equity, the market opportunity and shift in the competition.

房地產市場無疑在推高這一數字。財產的利率變化將遠高於平均水平。意外險費率的變化非常大，但總體上會低於平均水平，但仍為正，這表明費率變化和保費趨勢的結合正在超過損失成本趨勢。重要的是要強調利率變化和利率充足性是兩件不同的事情。正如我們的結果所示，我們的利率綽綽有餘。我們不斷審查這些利率，並根據許多考慮因素進行調整，例如我們的目標綜合比率、我們的目標股本回報率、市場機會和競爭轉變。

It's also important to note that we've been getting rate increases in excess of trend for several years now. We feel the business we're putting on the books today as the best rate adequacy we've seen in our history. We do continue to keep an eye on inflation. We feel we're in a good position, but we monitor the situation continuously and make adjustments as necessary. The market conditions as I said are generally favorable across the board. For the most part, we see competitors either retrenching or behaving in a stable, rational manner.

同樣重要的是要注意，幾年來我們的利率增長一直超過趨勢。我們覺得我們今天在賬簿上的業務是我們歷史上見過的最好的利率充足性。我們確實會繼續關注通貨膨脹。我們覺得自己處於有利位置，但我們會持續監控情況並在必要時做出調整。正如我所說，市場條件總體上是有利的。在大多數情況下，我們看到競爭對手要么縮減開支，要么以穩定、理性的方式行事。

There are a few new market entrants, particularly among MGAs and fronting deals, that are offering wide open coverage and prices too cheap for their carriers to hope to make any return. But this phenomenon isn't impacting our market opportunity at the moment, and we believe economic reality will eventually catch up with those competitors. When it does, there will be further market dislocation and opportunity for the rational actors and that ultimately will be good news for Kinsale. Overall, clearly, a good quarter, and we are happy with the results.

有一些新的市場進入者，特別是在 MGA 和前端交易中，它們提供廣泛的開放覆蓋範圍和價格太低，以至於他們的運營商無法希望獲得任何回報。但目前這種現象並未影響我們的市場機會，我們相信經濟現實最終會趕上那些競爭對手。屆時，市場將進一步錯位，並為理性行為者提供機會，這最終對 Kinsale 來說是個好消息。總體而言，顯然，這是一個不錯的季度，我們對結果感到滿意。

And with that, I'll hand it back over to Mike.

有了這個，我會把它交還給邁克。

Thanks, Brian. Operator, we're now ready for any questions in the queue.

謝謝，布萊恩。接線員，我們現在準備好回答隊列中的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Mark Hughes with Truist。

Mike, you have, in the past, referred to some commentary about the inflation and the impact on loss development among competitors, I think you have alluded to kind of reinsurers speculating about loss development being more severe than expected. Any update on that? How do you see the impact of inflation on your competitors? And what does that mean for growth in the E&S market?

邁克，你過去曾提到過一些關於通貨膨脹和對競爭對手損失發展的影響的評論，我認為你提到了一些再保險公司猜測損失發展比預期更嚴重。有什麼更新嗎？您如何看待通貨膨脹對您的競爭對手的影響？這對 E&S 市場的增長意味著什麼？

Well, I think on your longer tail lines, they're the most exposed to the increase in inflation. I think we've seen it in our own book of business where building supplies have gone up in price, labor costs have gone up in price. And so a claim that may have been settled 2 or 3 years ago for [100,000] is probably being settled for a considerably higher number today. We always like to belabor the fact that it's a very fundamental part of our business strategy to set conservative reserves for future claims. And I think that conservatism gives us some insulation but clearly, if you go back to the -- for Kinsale the 15 through 19 years, yes, inflation has impacted those years. I think all those years have developed favorably on an inception-to-date basis, but it has probably eroded the conservatism a little bit.

好吧，我認為在你較長的尾線上，它們最容易受到通貨膨脹上升的影響。我想我們已經在我們自己的商業賬簿中看到了這一點，其中建築用品價格上漲，勞動力成本價格上漲。因此，可能在 2 或 3 年前以 [100,000] 解決的索賠今天可能以相當高的數字解決。我們總是喜歡強調這樣一個事實，即為未來的索賠設置保守的準備金是我們業務戰略的一個非常基本的部分。而且我認為保守主義給了我們一些絕緣，但顯然，如果你回到 - 對於 Kinsale 的 15 到 19 年，是的，通貨膨脹影響了那些年。我認為所有這些年在成立至今的基礎上都取得了良好的發展，但它可能已經稍微削弱了保守主義。

Given the rate increases that Bryan mentioned from 2020, '21, '22 and now '23. We think we're in a great position in terms of conservatism overall but it does have an impact. And it's going to impact all of our competitors the same way. Not every company takes the same conservative approach to reserving. So the more optimistic a company is at the beginning of that process. I think the more painful the inflation can be. But I think the net takeaway is it should extend the favorable pricing environment for the E&S market.

考慮到布賴恩提到的 2020 年、21 年、22 年和現在 23 年的增長率。我們認為我們在整體保守主義方面處於有利地位，但它確實有影響。它將以同樣的方式影響我們所有的競爭對手。並非每家公司都採用相同的保守方法來保留。因此，一家公司在該過程的開始階段越樂觀。我認為通貨膨脹越痛苦。但我認為最終的收穫是它應該為 E&S 市場擴大有利的定價環境。

Then on construction. Refresh me how much of your book may be exposed to construction? What do you think about the potential slowdown related to the banking crisis. Are you seeing anything like that, any early signs?

然後在建設上。刷新我你的書有多少可能會暴露在建築中？您如何看待與銀行業危機相關的潛在放緩。你有沒有看到類似的東西，任何早期跡象？

No. We're -- I think we're seeing good growth in construction. It's about 25% of our business, if you include everything under that broad umbrella. So I mean, that could include commercial and residential contractors. It can include home repair businesses, janitorial, landscaping, all sorts of things fit under that umbrella, but that's a bread-and-butter E&S class for the industry and it is for Kinsale as well. But I think we're seeing good growth across all our casualty lines at the moment with the 2 exceptions that Brian talked about, management liability in particular.

不，我們——我認為我們看到了建築業的良好增長。如果你把所有的東西都包括在這個廣泛的保護傘下，它大約占我們業務的 25%。所以我的意思是，這可能包括商業和住宅承包商。它可以包括家庭維修業務、清潔工、景觀美化，以及所有屬於該保護傘的東西，但這是該行業的主要 E&S 課程，對 Kinsale 也是如此。但我認為，除了布賴恩談到的 2 個例外，特別是管理責任，我們目前在所有傷亡險種上都看到了良好的增長。

Okay. And then 1 other question, Bryan Petrucelli. The ceded premium ratio with property increasing. Actually, I think it was down a little bit sequentially this quarter. What do you think a good run rate for 2023 would be on ceded premium ratio?

好的。然後是另外一個問題，Bryan Petrucelli。分出保費率隨產權增加而增加。實際上，我認為本季度環比有所下降。您認為 2023 年良好的運行率是多少？

I think, Mark, looking at what we have for the first quarter is probably a good indicator of what we have going forward. That is going to change depending on the mix of business. We talked about that in the past. But I think if you're trying to put something in a model, I think looking at what we did for the first quarter is as good of an indicator as I can give you.

我認為，馬克，看看我們第一季度的情況可能是我們未來進展的一個很好的指標。這將根據業務組合而改變。我們過去談過這個。但我認為，如果你試圖將某些東西放入模型中，我認為看看我們在第一季度所做的事情就是我能給你的一個很好的指標。

Your next question is from the line of Pablo Singzon with JPMorgan.

你的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Pablo Singzon。

Mike, you mentioned that expected catastrophe losses as a percentage of operating income have not changed even with property writings going up. Can you help quantify that a bit? And anybody how to do it, whether it's a percentage of premiums or earnings or just sort of any numbers around that expectation?

邁克，你提到過，即使資產負債率上升，預期的巨災損失佔營業收入的百分比也沒有改變。你能幫忙量化一下嗎？任何人如何做到這一點，無論是保費或收益的百分比還是圍繞該預期的任何數字？

Well, I think the best way to look at that because I mean it gets into a very technical array of numbers when you look at a probable maximum loss curve across a variety of different return periods, but if you look at Kinsale's experience now over 5, 7, 9 years, every major storm, when there's a major storm, we have losses, but they're very manageable in terms of -- maybe look at the third quarter of last year as an example, our run rate on combined ratios, I think, was in the high in the third quarter when we had some losses related to Hurricane Ian, hey, the combined ratio ticked up into the low 80s, right?

好吧，我認為這是最好的看待方式，因為我的意思是當你查看各種不同回報期的可能最大損失曲線時，它會進入一個非常技術性的數字陣列，但如果你看看 Kinsale 現在超過 5 年的經驗, 7, 9 年，每次大風暴，當有大風暴時，我們都有損失，但它們是非常可控的——也許以去年第三季度為例，我們的綜合比率運行率，我認為，在第三季度處於高位，當時我們因颶風伊恩而遭受了一些損失，嘿，綜合比率升至 80 年代的低位，對嗎？

So that's generally how we're trying to manage the volatility. We see a tremendous opportunity in the property business at the moment. As Bryan said, we've never seen a more favorable market for the risk bearer. And so we want to take advantage of that, but we're also mindful of volatility. And so all the things we've done over the years to balance the return prospects against the volatility, we continue to do that. That's kind of the message we wanted to convey. But we don't have a specific number to give you that you could pull everything down to one statistic.

所以這通常就是我們試圖管理波動性的方式。目前，我們在房地產業務中看到了巨大的機會。正如布賴恩所說，我們從未見過對風險承擔者更有利的市場。所以我們想利用這一點，但我們也注意到波動性。因此，我們多年來為平衡回報前景與波動性所做的所有事情，我們將繼續這樣做。這就是我們想要傳達的信息。但是我們沒有一個具體的數字可以給你，你可以把所有的事情都歸結為一個統計數據。

Understood. That was helpful context, Mike. And then the second question, I just wanted to follow up on your comment, and this is something new that you've said, right, you said this before. But longer term, you think growth for Kinsale's in the low to mid-teens. I guess the question around that is based on your experience of cat cycles in the market. How do you see that normalization playing out, right? Do you think there's going to be a steep decline to that more run rate level? Or do you think the process will be more gradual maybe even over a couple of years?

明白了。這是很有幫助的背景，邁克。然後是第二個問題，我只是想跟進你的評論，這是你說過的新東西，對，你之前說過。但從長遠來看，您認為 Kinsale 在中低端的增長。我想這個問題是基於你在市場上的貓週期經驗。你如何看待正常化的結果，對嗎？你認為運行率會急劇下降到更高水平嗎？或者你認為這個過程會更加漸進，甚至可能需要幾年時間？

I think it could be gradual over a couple of years. As I said in my comments, we're very optimistic today. I mean we just -- we've been growing at an extraordinary rate now for 4 years. The distress in the property market. I don't think we'll go away anytime soon. Inflation has an impact on the industry's reserve position. So that has yet to manifest itself. We continue to have a very, very dynamic tort system in the United States, which, of course, is a challenge for the industry. So there's a lot of reasons, I think, for the market to continue to be favorable. It's just a recognition that a 40% or 46% top line growth in a mature industry like insurance is extraordinary. And at some point in the future, it will abate somewhat. But beyond that, we think our business model is a little bit unique, and it should allow us to continue to grow at a very healthy rate and take market share even in a more competitive environment.

我認為這可能會在幾年內逐漸發生。正如我在評論中所說，我們今天非常樂觀。我的意思是我們只是 - 我們現在已經以驚人的速度增長了 4 年。房地產市場的困境。我認為我們不會很快離開。通貨膨脹對行業的儲備頭寸有影響。所以這還沒有表現出來。在美國，我們繼續擁有非常非常有活力的侵權系統，這當然對行業來說是一個挑戰。因此，我認為市場繼續有利的原因有很多。這只是承認在像保險這樣的成熟行業中 40% 或 46% 的收入增長是非同尋常的。在未來的某個時候，它會有所減弱。但除此之外，我們認為我們的商業模式有點獨特，它應該能讓我們繼續以非常健康的速度增長，即使在競爭更加激烈的環境中也能佔據市場份額。

Understood. And then the last 1 for me is for Brian Haney. Apologies if I missed this, but you had mentioned something about MGAs and fronting companies. I'm not sure if you referenced a specific line of business. But could you talk to, I guess, where these entities are over presented and maybe those entities having a negative impact on pricing and market dynamics. And apologies if I missed it, but I didn't hear specific lines associated with those.

明白了。最後一個對我來說是給 Brian Haney 的。如果我錯過了這一點，我深表歉意，但你提到了一些關於 MGA 和前台公司的事情。我不確定您是否提到了特定的業務範圍。但我想，你能不能談談這些實體在哪裡被過度展示，也許那些實體對定價和市場動態有負面影響。如果我錯過了，我深表歉意，但我沒有聽到與這些相關的具體台詞。

No, no, I didn't mention it, but I would say, in management liability, is probably one way you're going to see them in professional liability. They're going to be more common. They definitely then to focus on large deals, which is why it's not having that big of an impact on us. So if you've heard market commentary from some of our competitors about what's going on in, let's say, D&O, right? That's going to be going on in the large public company D&O space, which we're not in. So that would be the lines we tend to see them then. (inaudible), but we don't really write cyber.

不，不，我沒有提到它，但我想說，在管理責任中，你可能會在職業責任中看到他們的一種方式。它們將變得更加普遍。然後他們肯定會專注於大宗交易，這就是為什麼它對我們沒有那麼大的影響。因此，如果您從我們的一些競爭對手那裡聽到了關於正在發生的事情的市場評論，比方說，D&O，對嗎？這將在我們不在的大型上市公司 D&O 空間中進行。因此，這將是我們當時傾向於看到的線條。 （聽不清），但我們並沒有真正寫網絡。

And in property, sorry, are they less common in property sort of like the syndicate deals or...

對不起，在財產方面，它們在財產中不太常見，比如辛迪加交易或......

Yes, I would say, with the market the way it is now in property, yes, they're less common. Like right now, you wouldn't have to use MGAs to write a lot of business in property. But they certainly are in that space.

是的，我會說，隨著現在房地產市場的發展，是的，它們不那麼常見了。就像現在一樣，您不必使用 MGA 來編寫大量的財產業務。但他們肯定在那個空間裡。

Your next question is from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies.

你的下一個問題來自 Andrew Andersen 與 Jefferies 的合作。

Just considering the growth in property over the last couple of quarters, any impact on the underlying loss ratio from what I would think would be a lower attritional loss ratio business? And if not, would it be fair to think of some coming in the second half of the year?

僅考慮過去幾個季度的房地產增長，我認為較低的損耗率業務對潛在損失率有何影響？如果沒有，考慮在今年下半年推出一些產品是否公平？

It's true that the property business we write, that's got a pronounced cat exposure will run at a much lower attritional loss ratio. But I would say, in general, given the uptick in inflation, the persistence of inflation, a lot of commentary around social inflation on certain claims. We continue to take a very cautious approach to reserving. And so I don't know that you'll see any kind of immediate benefit.

的確，我們所寫的房地產業務，有明顯的巨災風險，將以低得多的損耗率運行。但我想說的是，總的來說，鑑於通貨膨脹的上升，通貨膨脹的持續存在，圍繞某些主張的社會通貨膨脹有很多評論。我們繼續採取非常謹慎的方式進行預訂。所以我不知道你會看到任何直接的好處。

But that being said, even with our conservatism, I think we're in the high 50s for a loss ratio. And when you match that up with an attractive expense ratio that we're delivering really compelling returns even with the conservatism.

但話雖這麼說，即使我們持保守態度，我認為我們的損失率仍處於 50 多歲左右。當您將其與有吸引力的費用比率相匹配時，即使保守主義，我們也能提供真正令人信服的回報。

Got it. And -- do the recent Florida market reforms change appetite in the state relative to maybe where it was a few months ago? And could you also just remind us of appetite in the state of whether residential, commercial and maybe geographic?

知道了。而且——最近的佛羅里達市場改革是否改變了該州相對於幾個月前的胃口？您能否也提醒我們對住宅、商業和地理狀態的興趣？

We were kind of exempt from a lot of the AOB issues that were plaguing the standard homeowners writers in Florida. We do have a small homeowners book in the Southeast United States that we're actually kind of reducing concentration there. We had an Ian loss that was a little bit larger than we hoped. But Florida is a big state for us on both the property and the casualty side. Obviously, again, we have strict limits on concentration. So yes, we're going to write in Miami Day County, but we have limits as to how much we'll write there. But most of our exposure, I think, is on the commercial side.

我們有點免於困擾佛羅里達州標準房主作家的許多 AOB 問題。我們在美國東南部確實有一本小型房主手冊，我們實際上在某種程度上降低了那裡的集中度。我們的 Ian 損失比我們希望的要大一點。但佛羅里達州在財產和傷亡方面對我們來說都是一個大州。顯然，我們對濃度有嚴格的限制。所以是的，我們將在邁阿密戴縣寫作，但我們對在那裡寫多少有限制。但我認為，我們的大部分曝光是在商業方面。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Scott Heleniak。

Just wondering if the -- if there's any point to particular, which has obviously been strong for a while, it looked like that upticked a little bit. But is there any area where you're seeing more dislocation or pull back from some of your peers, I would think, obviously, property. But is there anything else that you can point to where you're just getting a lot more looks at business as competitors retrench?

只是想知道是否 - 如果有任何特別之處，它顯然已經強勁了一段時間，它看起來有點上升了。但是，在任何領域，你是否會看到更多的混亂或從你的一些同行中退縮，我想，顯然，財產。但是，您還有什麼可以指出的，即隨著競爭對手的縮減，您會更多地關注業務嗎？

Yes. I mean obviously, property is 1 area we're seeing a lot more submissions. I would say it's pretty across the board. Like there's very few areas where we're not seeing good growth in submission. And to the extent that we are, those are the areas that are not growing as much like product liability and management liability. So it kind of ties with the growth rate in premium.

是的。我的意思是，很明顯，財產是我們看到更多提交的 1 個領域。我會說這是全面的。就像我們在提交方面沒有看到良好增長的極少數領域一樣。就我們而言，這些領域的增長不如產品責任和管理責任。因此，這與保費增長率有關。

Okay. Pretty broad-based. All right. And just moving on to the -- you guys have, if I'm not mistaken, you have the commercial property quota share reinsurance treaty that renews at June 1. Any thoughts on renewing that the current form, whether you expect any changes on that in pricing and whether you expect to keep it that as a quota share versus excess loss. Anything you can add on that?

好的。相當廣泛的基礎。好的。然後繼續 - 你們有，如果我沒記錯的話，你們有將於 6 月 1 日更新的商業財產配額份額再保險條約。關於更新當前表格的任何想法，無論您是否期望對此有任何改變在定價方面以及您是否希望將其作為配額份額與超額損失保持一致。你有什麼可以補充的嗎？

Yes, Scott, this is Mike. We're going through the reinsurance renewal for our whole program at the moment. But the intent is to renew the commercial property quota share. We currently see 42.5% of that. We're going to push that up to 50%, but we don't expect any deterioration or improvement for that matter in terms I think it will be per expiring.

是的，斯科特，這是邁克。目前，我們正在為整個計劃進行再保險續保。但意圖是更新商業地產配額份額。我們目前看到其中的 42.5%。我們將把它提高到 50%，但我們預計在這方面不會有任何惡化或改善，我認為它會在到期時出現。

Yes. Okay. Just had a question to you. We've heard a lot of talk in the quarterly conference calls about just given customers are seeing large rate increases, adjustments to the premiums to reflect the higher insured values. Are you seeing a meaningful shift in some of your terms and conditions, just the deductibles and limits pretty across their book as some customers just are struggling with the rate increases, and so you have an opportunity to change deductibles and limits there?

是的。好的。剛有一個問題要問你。我們在季度電話會議中聽到了很多關於鑑於客戶看到利率大幅上漲、保費調整以反映更高的保險價值的討論。您是否看到您的某些條款和條件發生了有意義的變化，只是他們賬簿中的免賠額和限額很明顯，因為一些客戶只是在努力應對利率上漲，因此您有機會在那裡更改免賠額和限額？

The short answer is yes. So I mean we're seeing generally more favorable terms because people are looking for a way to save money. So it could be through purchasing lower limits, having higher deductibles, living with sublimits, things like that.

簡短的回答是肯定的。所以我的意思是我們看到普遍更優惠的條款，因為人們正在尋找一種省錢的方法。所以這可能是通過購買較低的限額、較高的免賠額、生活在次限額下，諸如此類。

Is that a big change versus last 6 to 9 months? Or is that just kind of gradually headed that way?

與過去 6 到 9 個月相比，這是一個很大的變化嗎？還是只是逐漸朝著那個方向發展？

That's been going on kind of as the hard market has been evolving. So no, it's not a significant change. I would just say it's -- in certain areas, it's pretty pronounced like again, property.

隨著硬市場的發展，這種情況一直在發生。所以不，這不是一個重大變化。我只想說——在某些領域，它的發音很像財產。

Okay. And then just lastly, anything on the favorable development that you said in the Q, it's from more recent accident years, 2021, 2022. Is there any particular areas that you can call out on that, that you can point to where -- lines of business where that's coming from?

好的。最後一點，你在 Q 中所說的任何有利發展，都是最近的事故年份，2021 年、2022 年。有沒有你可以指出的特定領域，你可以指出哪裡 - 線那是從哪裡來的？

Yes, I don't think there's anything we can point to on the call other than I think we're seeing good experience across the portfolio. We write a good mix of short, medium and longer tail lines. And so there's probably a disproportionate percent of those dollars that come from the shorter versus the longer tail. But I don't -- we don't have anything specific to point to. The results are a combination of setting conservative loss picks but also getting some very dramatic and persistent rate increases that had a loss cost trend now for a number of years in a row.

是的，除了我認為我們在整個投資組合中看到了良好的體驗外，我認為我們在電話會議上沒有什麼可以指出的。我們將短尾線、中尾線和長尾線很好地結合在一起。因此，這些美元中可能有不成比例的比例來自較短的尾巴而不是較長的尾巴。但我沒有——我們沒有任何具體要指出的東西。結果是既設定了保守的損失選擇，又獲得了一些非常顯著和持續的利率增長，這種增長現在已經連續多年出現損失成本趨勢。

Okay. And was there any favorable development from Ian that was worth calling out?

好的。伊恩是否有任何值得一提的有利進展？

No.

不。

Your next question is from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist.

你的下一個問題來自 Mark Hughes with Truist。

Yes. I was just going to ask anything on the audit premium front, anything that would speak to the economy. Are you -- is there anything you see that suggests maybe some slowdown even in the midst of all the other good news?

是的。我只是想問任何關於審計溢價方面的問題，任何與經濟有關的問題。你有沒有看到任何跡象表明即使在所有其他好消息中也可能出現放緩？

Yes. I mean I think you got to keep in mind when we talk about the economy slowing down, that it's in an inflationary environment. So the audit premium is going to be based on nominal sales, not real sales and not adjusted sales. So we haven't really seen that big an impact on it. I guess the 1 thing I would say is we did use to see kind of outsized COVID-related audits a year or 2 ago that we aren't seeing now. But now we're still seeing a good flow of audit premium.

是的。我的意思是，當我們談論經濟放緩時，我認為你必須記住，它處於通貨膨脹環境中。因此，審計溢價將基於名義銷售額，而不是實際銷售額和調整後的銷售額。所以我們還沒有真正看到對它有那麼大的影響。我想我要說的一件事是，我們確實在一兩年前看到過一些我們現在沒有看到的與 COVID 相關的超大規模審計。但現在我們仍然看到審計溢價的良好流動。

Your next question is from the line of Casey Alexander with Compass Point.

你的下一個問題來自 Compass Point 的 Casey Alexander。

Just kind of a maintenance issue. In the investment portfolio, is there any additional regional bank exposure of note, particularly any common preferred or debt exposure to First Republic? And also any commercial mortgage exposure?

只是一種維護問題。在投資組合中，是否有任何額外的區域性銀行票據敞口，特別是對 First Republic 的任何共同優先或債務敞口？還有任何商業抵押貸款風險？

I'll do them in reverse order. We do have a healthy allocation to mortgages through the, I guess, residential and commercial. I think they're almost all AAA rated. So we're in a pretty cautious position there. In terms of the First Republic, I don't think we have any exposure. In terms of regional banks, I think it was about 4% of the portfolio, and again, pretty highly rated bonds across a variety of regional banks.

我會按相反的順序做。我想，我們確實通過住宅和商業抵押貸款進行了健康的分配。我認為它們幾乎都是 AAA 級的。所以我們在那里處於非常謹慎的位置。就第一共和國而言，我認為我們沒有任何曝光率。就地區性銀行而言，我認為它約佔投資組合的 4%，而且在各種地區性銀行中的評級相當高。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Operator, it looks like we have 1 call pending.

接線員，我們似乎有 1 個待處理呼叫。

Yes sir. Your next question comes from the line of Tommy Johnson, a private investor.

是的先生。你的下一個問題來自私人投資者湯米約翰遜。

Mike and Brian, this is a voice from your past and I can't ask an intelligent question, but I want to say as a shareholder from day 1, you're an example of what Warren Buffett talks about "If you're lucky in life, you invest in a couple of great companies and you hang on", and you guys have proven that to be true. And this is just a stockholder saying you have an incredible track record. Your explanation on the phone, while I can't follow it demonstrates your knowledge of the business, and I just want to express my appreciation for your -- both of your leadership throughout the time. I remember when you set my office, Mike and laid out your business plan, and I don't know that any of us thought you would exceed it the way you have, but it's been a great ride, buddy.

Mike 和 Brian，這是你們過去的聲音，我不能問一個明智的問題，但我想從第一天起作為股東說，你們就是沃倫巴菲特所說的“如果你幸運的話”的一個例子在生活中，你投資了幾家偉大的公司，然後堅持下去”，你們已經證明了這一點。這只是一位股東說你擁有令人難以置信的業績記錄。你在電話中的解釋，雖然我聽不懂，但它證明了你對業務的了解，我只想表達我對你的感激之情——你們一直以來的領導能力。我記得當你佈置我的辦公室時，邁克制定了你的商業計劃，我不知道我們中有人認為你會像現在這樣超越它，但這是一次很棒的旅程，伙計。

All right, Tommy. Well, thank you for the kind words, and thanks for the better confidence over the years.

好的，湯米。好吧，謝謝你的客氣話，也感謝這些年來更好的信心。

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Michael Kehoe.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話轉回給 Michael Kehoe 先生。

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for participating this morning, and we look forward to speaking with you again here in a couple of months. Have a great day.

好的。謝謝大家今天上午的參與，我們期待幾個月後再次在這裡與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。