金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2026 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q2 營收成長低於預期,主因中國尿布業務受干擾及北美貿易庫存調整,但受惠於關稅退稅與高生產力,營業利潤與 EPS 超出預期
    • 全年展望下修,反映中國市場不確定性與成本壓力,並已將關稅退稅與下半年預期通膨納入指引
    • 市場反應未明確揭露,僅強調公司對長期成長動能與 Kenvue 併購協同效益具信心
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 持續 10 季 volume + mix 成長,全球市佔率維持,品牌基本面穩健
      • 創新驅動,包括 alternative natural fiber 計畫與強大產品開發管線,預期提升產品力與毛利
      • Arbex 與 Suzano JV 完成,有助於全球衛生紙與個人護理業務聚焦與資源配置
      • Kenvue 併購整合進展順利,協同效益規劃明確,預期帶來長期價值
    • 風險:
      • 中國尿布業務受社群媒體事件影響,復甦時點具高度不確定性,全年預期仍保守
      • 北美市場消費者壓力大,消費動能波動,零售商庫存調整影響短期出貨
      • 原物料(特別是油價)與中東地緣政治帶來成本通膨壓力
      • 競爭加劇,促銷活動增加,需持續維持價格與價值主張平衡
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • 全球 volume + mix:連續 10 季正成長,Q2 仍維持正向
    • 北美消費品出貨:Q2 出貨年減 1.4%,消費成長 0.3%,主因 LA 倉儲火災與成人護理通路庫存調整
    • 北美市佔率:過去 12 個月 70% 銷售基礎市佔提升,Q2 主要因 club 通路損失導致加權市佔下滑
    • 生產力提升:Q2 生產力提升 6.4%,創歷史新高
    • 中國尿布業務:Q2 對營收影響 50bps,全年預估 100bps,Q3/Q4 各 100bps,尚未見明顯復甦
  4. 財務預測
    • 全年營收展望下修,反映中國與北美短期壓力
    • 全年毛利率預期受原物料通膨與促銷影響,但生產力提升與價格調整有助緩解
    • 下半年預估原物料成本增加約 1.5 億美元,已納入全年預測,預期透過關稅退稅與其他措施完全抵銷
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 中國市場事件進展與展望?
      A: 產品經多次第三方檢驗證明安全,與中國主管機關積極溝通,尚未見明顯復甦但無進一步惡化,全年展望已反映不確定性,預期需時間修復。
    • Q: Q2 財報表現與內部預期差異?
      A: 有機成長低於預期,主因中國尿布事件與北美成人護理通路庫存調整,但關稅退稅與高生產力帶動營業利潤與 EPS 超預期。
    • Q: Kenvue 併購協同效益進度與 2027 展望?
      A: 對 Kenvue 併購創造世代價值具高度信心,協同效益規劃明確,尚未調整 2027 長期目標,將於交易完成後進一步更新展望。
    • Q: 北美市場 Q2 表現與下半年展望?
      A: Q2 受倉儲火災與庫存調整影響,出貨低於消費,但品牌與創新動能強,下半年有信心隨創新推廣與促銷正常化,業績將回升並與品類同步成長。
    • Q: 創新與 alternative natural fiber 計畫進度?
      A: 創新管線強勁,alternative natural fiber 計畫已啟動試點廠,預期提升產品力、降低成本波動並有助永續,相關投資已納入中長期資本規劃。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark second-quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

    早安,歡迎參加金佰利(Kimberly-Clark)2026 年第二季財報電話會議。(接線員指示)

  • I will now hand the floor over to Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把會議交給投資人關係副總裁 Chris Jakubik。請開始。

  • Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

    Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

  • Good morning, everyone. This is Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark, and thank you for joining us. I would like to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks.

    各位早安。我是金佰利投資人關係主管 Chris Jakubik,感謝各位參與。我想提醒大家,在今天的發言中,我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於我們目前對情勢的看法。由於風險與不確定性,實際結果可能有所不同,相關內容已在我們的財報新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中討論。在本次發言中,我們也會討論一些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。

  • These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP and the reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

    這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標不應被視為 GAAP 結果的替代,並應與 GAAP 結果一併閱讀。您可在我們的財報新聞稿以及發布於 investor.kimberly-clark.com 的補充資料中找到 GAAP 數據與調節表。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Mike 做幾點開場說明。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Thank you, Chris, and thank you all for joining us today. As I mentioned in our prepared remarks, our second-quarter results demonstrate the durability of the growth engine we've built through Powering Care. We delivered our 10th consecutive quarter of solid volume plus mix performance, held global weighted share, posted another quarter of industry-leading gross productivity, and continued to invest for impact.

    謝謝你,Chris,也謝謝各位今天加入我們。如同我在事先準備的講稿中提到的,我們第二季的結果展現了我們透過「Powering Care」所打造的成長引擎之韌性。我們連續第 10 季交出穩健的銷量加組合(volume plus mix)表現,維持全球加權市占,繳出另一季業界領先的毛利生產力提升,並持續進行具影響力的投資。

  • We did this even as consumers remain pressured and category growth is moderating. At the same time, results were impacted by a few discrete but significant one-off items in the quarter that underpin our decision to adjust our full-year outlook.

    即使消費者仍承受壓力、品類成長趨緩,我們仍做到了這些。同時,本季也受到幾項個別但重大的單次性因素影響,這些因素支撐了我們調整全年展望的決定。

  • Despite these headwinds, the fundamentals of our business remain strong, and we're confident in our momentum entering the second half and into 2027. Our teams are executing with speed, agility and great care to manage the business with discipline and navigate external dynamics.

    儘管面臨這些逆風,我們的業務基本面依然強勁,我們對於下半年以及邁入 2027 年的動能充滿信心。我們的團隊以速度、敏捷與高度用心來執行,並以紀律管理業務、因應外部環境變化。

  • We're delivering superior science-backed innovation and value propositions around the world through our proven repeatable playbook that positions us to continue to win with consumers. We're advancing the next phase of Kimberly-Clark's transformation and sharpening our focus on proprietary right-to-win spaces. Yesterday, we unveiled a proprietary alternative natural fiber innovation program, which has the potential to reshape the future of our industry.

    我們透過經驗證、可重複的致勝打法(playbook),在全球提供以科學為基礎的卓越創新與價值主張,使我們能持續贏得消費者青睞。我們正推進金佰利轉型的下一階段,並更聚焦於我們具專有優勢、具備致勝權利(right-to-win)的領域。昨天,我們揭示了一項專有的替代天然纖維創新計畫,該計畫有潛力重塑本產業的未來。

  • This is the culmination of more than two decades of materials and plant science expertise brought to life through Powering Care. We believe the program will enhance product performance for consumers, strengthen our long-term growth trajectory, reduce exposure to natural forest fiber cost volatility, and advance our natural forest fiber-free ambition.

    這是我們在材料與植物科學領域逾二十年專業的集大成,並透過「Powering Care」落地實現。我們相信,該計畫將提升產品對消費者的使用表現、強化我們長期成長軌跡、降低對天然森林纖維成本波動的曝險,並推進我們「不使用天然森林纖維」的願景。

  • We also completed the successful launch of Arbex, our strategic joint venture with Suzano. We're making strong progress on our integration planning for Kenvue as well. We're excited and ready for what's next. We have a unique generational opportunity to create a new kind of health and wellness company, reimagine care for billions of people around the world and to create lasting value for shareholders.

    我們也完成了 Arbex 的成功上市,這是我們與 Suzano 的策略性合資企業。同時,我們在 Kenvue 的整合規劃方面也取得了良好進展。我們對接下來的發展感到興奮並已準備就緒。我們擁有一個世代難得的獨特機會,去打造一種全新的健康與福祉公司,為全球數十億人重新想像照護方式,並為股東創造長期價值。

  • With that, we'd like to open up the line for questions.

    接下來,我們開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Nik Modi, RBC Capital Markets.

    (接線員指示)RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • So just like maybe you can unpack what exactly is going on in China in terms of like how this all started and then what the path forward is? And then I have one more question after that.

    能否請你們拆解一下中國那邊到底發生了什麼——包括整件事是怎麼開始的,以及接下來的處理路徑是什麼?然後我還有一個後續問題。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah, I'll take that one, Nik, it's Russ. Yeah, I would say the main message is that we were very confident in our products. We make high-quality products that are safe and perform well. And so we think that's going to lead the way to recovery over time, but just a little more context, I'll maybe make three points.

    好的,Nik,這題我來回答,我是 Russ。我想主要訊息是:我們對自家產品非常有信心。我們生產高品質的產品,安全且表現良好。因此我們認為,這將在時間推移下引導我們走向復原。不過再補充一些背景,我大概提三點。

  • First, there really is no scientific evidence backing the claims. We did, as we noted in the remarks, make multiple independent tests conducted by certified third-party lab that confirmed that our products are safe and they were non-detect tests.

    第一,這些指控其實沒有科學證據支持。如同我們在發言中提到的,我們進行了多項由具認證的第三方實驗室所做的獨立檢測,確認我們的產品是安全的,而且檢測結果為未檢出(non-detect)。

  • Second, in terms of how we're handling it. Our team is doing an excellent job navigating the situation. We're continuing to cooperate with the Chinese authorities who are managing the issue. And our strategy really is to continue to invest aggressively behind reinforcing the fact about our products and communicating quickly with transparency to consumers. And obviously, engaging stakeholders like retailers and government agencies. And we've got an excellent support from all the stakeholders, which we're really grateful for.

    第二,關於我們如何處理。我們的團隊在應對這個情況上做得非常出色。我們持續配合正在處理此事的中國主管機關。我們的策略確實是持續加大投資,強化關於我們產品的事實,並以透明方式快速與消費者溝通。當然也會與零售商、政府機構等利害關係人互動。我們也獲得所有利害關係人的大力支持,對此我們非常感謝。

  • And then third, in terms of the outlook and what we expect going forward, we are not seeing any sequential deterioration in our sellout in China, but it also hasn't inflected positively yet. So we think we've been appropriate in the outlook for the balance of the year, considering that uncertainty. And while we are cautiously optimistic in some areas, I think these incidents have been occurring with greater frequency and consumers are pretty smart and getting savvy about these things.

    第三,關於展望以及我們對未來的預期:我們沒有看到中國的終端銷售(sellout)出現任何逐季惡化,但也尚未出現正向拐點。因此,考量到這種不確定性,我們認為對於今年剩餘期間的展望設定是恰當的。雖然在某些方面我們審慎樂觀,但我認為這類事件發生的頻率正在提高,而消費者也相當聰明,對這些事情越來越有辨識度。

  • We're also realistic that it's going to take a little time to kind of work through this. So hopefully, that gives you some sense.

    我們也務實地認為,消化並走過這件事需要一些時間。希望這能讓你有些概念。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Nik, it's Mike. I'll just tag on. One, given kind of the social media environment, this is not the first time that's occurred to us, it probably is the largest blow. But I would say, our purpose as a company is better care for a better world, and we take our responsibility to consumers as paramount in that, and we would never trade that off. And so we're very confident in the quality of our products. And so we believe we'll get this back to the right place.

    是的。Nik,我是 Mike。我再補充幾點。第一,考量社群媒體的環境,這不是我們第一次遇到這種情況,可能是衝擊最大的一次。但我想說,我們公司的宗旨是「更好的照護,為了更好的世界」,我們把對消費者的責任視為最優先,絕不會拿這個去交換任何事情。因此我們對產品品質非常有信心。我們相信能把這件事導回正軌。

  • I would like to add, Nik, though, that brand foundations globally remain strong in the face of some of the discrete impacts, including the China issue that we're working through. Just to point out, and I think I made this in my prepared remarks, we're still sustaining positive volume plus mix growth. I think our 10th consecutive quarter of that.

    不過我也想補充,Nik,儘管有一些個別影響(包括我們正在處理的中國事件),我們的品牌基礎在全球仍然穩健。我想指出的是,而且我在事先準備的講稿中也提到,我們仍維持正向的銷量加組合成長。我想這是我們連續第 10 季達成。

  • And then in the -- even in the quarter, holding overall weighted share in the quarter, although on the old cohort approach, up or even in about 70% of sales across the world. So I think we feel good about our brand fundamentals, and we're confident we've been able to navigate this issue.

    另外,在本季我們也維持了整體加權市占;雖然若用舊的 cohort 方法來看,全球約 70% 的銷售額所在市場是上升或持平。所以我認為我們對品牌基本面感到良好,也有信心能夠妥善應對這個議題。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • Great. And then, Mike, it was a really noisy quarter. A lot of stuff going on. Maybe you could just give us some perspective on how you guys performed relative to your internal expectations just so we can kind of ground ourselves?

    了解。另外,Mike,這一季真的很吵雜。發生了很多事情。你能否分享一下,你們的表現相對於內部預期如何,讓我們可以有個基準來理解?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, I'll make a comment, but maybe I'll have Nelson give you that because I think he's a little prepared for that line of thinking. But also, I would agree with you, it's a choppy environment, so I'll come back to that.

    好的,我先說幾句,不過也許我會請 Nelson 來回答,因為我想他對這個思路準備得更充分。但我也同意你的看法,環境確實相當顛簸,我等一下再回到這點。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So Nik, just to unpack a little bit the quarter and where we're at. I mean, yeah, the second quarter organic growth came in below our expectations. However, strong execution on the tariff refund that we received in the second quarter drove the better-than-expected and solid operating profit growth and EPS performance in the quarter. If we look at organic sales in Q2, we were about 100 basis points or so below our expectations.

    是的。所以,Nik,稍微拆解一下本季以及我們目前的狀況。我的意思是,沒錯,第二季的有機成長低於我們的預期。不過,我們在第二季收到的關稅退稅上執行強勁,帶動本季優於預期且穩健的營業利益成長與每股盈餘(EPS)表現。如果看第二季的有機銷售,我們大約比預期低了約100個基點左右。

  • This was driven primarily by the disruption in our China diaper business; in the back half of June, keep in mind that was only just two weeks; as well as the trade inventory reduction in North America, which was largely concentrated in adult care and in one particular channel, and that was not something we contemplated when we gave our outlook back in April that bit.

    這主要是由於我們中國尿布業務受到干擾;請記得,發生在6月下半月,其實只有兩週;另外還有北美通路庫存去化,主要集中在成人照護以及某一個特定通路,而這並不是我們在4月給出展望時所預先納入考量的因素。

  • As well lastly, as the softer category growth because as you remember, we had talked about a 2.5% category growth trailing 12 months back in April, and now we're staring at about 2%. As it relates to adjusted operating profit and EPS, the two came in ahead of expectations, as I stated earlier. And this is primarily due to the tariff refund benefit and the really solid productivity we delivered in the quarter, which was 6.4%, which both more than offset the higher levels of brand investment year over year.

    最後,還有品類成長較疲弱;如你所記得的,我們在4月談到過去12個月的品類成長約為2.5%,而現在我們看到大約是2%。至於調整後營業利益與EPS,正如我先前所說,兩者都高於預期。這主要歸因於關稅退稅的效益,以及我們本季交出的非常扎實的生產力表現(6.4%),兩者都足以抵消品牌投資年增所帶來的較高水準。

  • And overall, despite the challenging operating environment that Mike referred to, which included maneuvering through the L.A. distribution center fire, all the Middle East incremental costs that we're managing through and the China diaper disruption. We still had strong execution across all of our markets in general, and this enabled us to deliver solid bottom line and EPS, which was again ahead of expectations.

    整體而言,儘管如Mike所提到的充滿挑戰的營運環境,包括因應洛杉磯配送中心火災、我們正在管理的中東新增成本,以及中國尿布業務的干擾。我們在整體各市場仍展現強勁執行力,這使我們得以交出穩健的獲利底線與EPS,再次高於預期。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. And then, Nik, just back to the point, I would recognize that I think it is a very choppy environment generally for us globally. But I would say the category remains resilient in a choppy environment. If you go on a trailing 12-month basis, for the past few years, our categories on average have been about 2, 2.5. And I think that reflects the essential nature of our categories that yield a little more resilient, more stable demand than other categories that I worked with in my past.

    是的。然後,Nik,回到這個點,我會承認我認為整體而言,我們在全球面臨的是一個非常顛簸的環境。但我會說,在顛簸的環境中,品類仍具韌性。如果以過去12個月滾動來看,過去幾年我們的品類平均大約是2%到2.5%。我認為這反映了我們品類的必需性,使其相較於我過去接觸過的其他品類,需求更具韌性、更穩定。

  • That all said, though, I would say, Nik, I think you see it, too. Consumers are clearly under increased pressure. I think we're seeing sentiment among -- especially among lower consumers is weakening and we're seeing greater variability in consumption. Weighted growth across our categories in North America moderated sequentially from 3.7% last quarter to 1.9%. If you go further back Q4, I think it was plus 0.4%, right?

    話雖如此,我會說,Nik,我想你也看得到。消費者顯然承受更大的壓力。我認為我們看到消費者情緒——尤其是較低收入消費者——正在轉弱,而且我們看到消費出現更大的波動性。北美各品類的加權成長率,從上季的3.7%按季放緩至1.9%。如果再往前看第四季,我記得是正0.4%,對吧?

  • So it is choppy. But the thing I will tell you is at least some of that choppiness is potentially exacerbated by maybe promotional timing effects. And the reality of our categories compared to some of the food categories that Nelson and Russ and I have worked in the past is we tend to be more concentrated in a smaller number of large retailers. And so I think large promotional events can swing things. And I think we've seen that from quarter to quarter.

    所以確實很顛簸。但我要告訴你的是,至少其中一部分的顛簸,可能因促銷時點效應而被放大。而且相較於我、Nelson和Russ過去做過的一些食品品類,我們的品類往往更集中在少數幾家大型零售商。因此,我認為大型促銷活動會讓數據出現擺動。而且我認為我們已經看到季度之間的這種情況。

  • And so I would say we expect promotion kind of variations and normalized over time.

    因此我會說,我們預期促銷帶來的變動會隨時間推移而趨於常態化。

  • Nik Modi - Analyst

    Nik Modi - Analyst

  • Thank you, guys. I'll pass it on.

    謝謝各位。我把問題交給下一位。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo Securities.

    Wells Fargo Securities 的 Chris Carey。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • The first question is a clarification question. What was the tariff refund in the quarter? And do you expect any more -- I'm trying to understand the full-year guidance, tariff refund versus inflation, and the mitigation efforts that you're doing. And so it will help isolate some of those key buckets. Then a follow up.

    第一個問題是釐清性問題。本季的關稅退稅是多少?以及你們是否預期還會有更多——我想了解全年指引中,關稅退稅相對於通膨,以及你們正在做的緩解措施。這樣有助於把一些關鍵項目拆分出來。接著還有一個追問。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Sure, Chris. So a few things. I mean in terms of the refund that we received in the quarter in North America, the US, it was $45 million. And that represents roughly about half of what we paid in North America as a whole. And keep in mind, that's not just the US because there were some retaliatory tariffs that we paid earlier last year in Canada as well.

    當然,Chris。所以有幾點。就本季我們在北美、也就是美國收到的退稅而言,是4,500萬美元。這大約相當於我們在整個北美所支付金額的一半左右。而且請記得,這不只是美國,因為去年較早時我們在加拿大也支付了一些報復性關稅。

  • So overall, this is reflected in our second quarter results and in our updated outlook. For the balance of the year, we don't have anything much more material factored in. So that's largely what's included in our outlook. And right now, beyond that refund, we're continuing to monitor a policy environment and what's out there.

    所以整體而言,這已反映在我們第二季的結果以及更新後的展望中。至於今年剩餘期間,我們沒有把更多重大項目納入。因此,我們展望中大致就是包含這些。而目前,除了這筆退稅之外,我們也持續關注政策環境以及可能出現的情況。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Great. And then going into 2027, there had been an expectation for, I think, mid-single-digit dilution from deal activity and then there was going to be an underlying assumption for base Kimberly-Clark, just given what we're seeing in the in the backdrop for categories in North America and the competitive activity given the volatility in China and also your latest expectations for Kenvue, which sounds like it's closing in Q4 with good line of sight on synergies.

    很好。接著談到2027年,原本市場預期我想是來自交易活動的中個位數稀釋,然後對Kimberly-Clark本業會有一個基礎假設,考量到我們在北美品類的背景情況,以及在中國波動下的競爭活動,還有你們對Kenvue的最新預期——聽起來會在第四季完成交割,且對協同效益有很高的可見度。

  • Do you continue to view the 2027 construct as you have laid out as still as tangible or firm as you had done before? Just give us a sense of maybe how a thought process may be evolving as you get a bit more information about both your legacy Kimberly-Clark business and also Kenvue as you go into next year?

    你們是否仍然認為,先前所提出的2027年架構,依然像之前那樣具體或穩固?請讓我們了解一下,隨著你們對既有的Kimberly-Clark業務以及Kenvue在明年有更多資訊,你們的思考過程可能如何演變?

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yeah. So Chris, let me unpack your question a little bit. So first, we remain very confident in our ability to create generational value through the Kenvue acquisition, joining forces the two companies. Based on what we know today, we do not believe the factors driving our lower stand-alone '26 earnings outlook, and that's for us materially changed the underlying earnings potential of either our stand-alone businesses or the combined company going forward.

    是的。所以Chris,讓我稍微拆解一下你的問題。首先,我們對透過收購Kenvue、兩家公司攜手合作以創造世代價值的能力仍非常有信心。基於我們目前所知,我們不認為導致我們下調單獨公司2026年獲利展望的因素,已實質改變我們各自獨立業務或未來合併公司整體的基本獲利潛力。

  • Now clearly, the exact timing and pace of the recovery in China following the diaper disruption will influence how quickly results normalize. There's also some uncertainty around commodities and the broader macro environment. Given the ongoing Middle East crisis and volatility we're all managing through, the potential impacts on the inflation in consumers, as well as the exact timing of the further mitigating actions we may need to take.

    當然,中國在尿布業務干擾後復甦的確切時點與速度,會影響結果回歸常態的快慢。此外,大宗商品與更廣泛的總體環境也存在一些不確定性。鑑於持續的中東危機以及我們都在因應的波動,對消費者通膨的潛在影響,以及我們可能需要採取進一步緩解行動的確切時點。

  • But some of those are already well underway, and that's why you see the outlook that we put forth. Given all those moving pieces, standing here today, it's early to provide a specific view on '27 because we still have a lot of things that need to land in the back half of the year, including the exact timing of the closing of the transaction. But as I said, we remain very confident in the underlying earnings power and growth potential of the new company.

    但其中一些已經在積極推進中,這也是你看到我們提出該展望的原因。在這些變動因素之下,以今天的情況來看,現在就對2027年給出具體看法仍偏早,因為今年下半年仍有許多事情需要落地,包括交易完成交割的確切時間。但如我所說,我們對新公司基本的獲利能力與成長潛力仍非常有信心。

  • As we get closer to the close of the transaction, and we have further clarity on all these move-in items over the next few months, we will provide an update on the overall view for 2027 and beyond. But rest assured that we remain very confident in the logic and the generational value that we see this transaction creating.

    隨著我們更接近交易完成,並在未來幾個月對所有這些變動項目有更清晰的掌握,我們將就2027年及以後的整體看法提供更新。但請放心,我們對這筆交易的邏輯以及我們認為它將創造的世代價值仍非常有信心。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you very much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Bonnie Herzog, Goldman Sachs.

    Bonnie Herzog,高盛。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • I have a question on North America, which came in a bit below expectations. First, could you unpack the drivers of this softness, including underlying consumption trends versus retailer destocking? And ultimately, how your business in North America performed relative to your internal expectations?

    我有一個關於北美的問題,表現比預期稍微弱一些。首先,您能否拆解一下造成這種疲軟的驅動因素,包括基礎消費趨勢相較於零售商去庫存的影響?最終,您們在北美的業務表現相對於內部預期如何?

  • Then second, it sounds like you're expecting a stronger 2H. So could you talk through the drivers of this? And maybe what gives you the confidence and visibility in this expected improvement?

    第二,聽起來你們預期下半年會更強。那麼能否談談推動因素?以及是什麼讓你們對這項預期改善有信心與能見度?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Why don't I -- let me unpack the quarter and the half in terms of the puts and takes and the drivers. And then Russ will chime in on why our conviction in the acceleration of the business as we go through Q3 and Q4 and our confidence in our overall North America business and the strength of our -- of our propositions for consumers and customers.

    不如我——讓我先從拉鋸因素與驅動面,拆解一下本季與上半年的情況。然後 Russ 會補充,為什麼我們堅信在進入第三季與第四季時業務會加速,以及我們對整體北美業務的信心,還有我們——我們對消費者與客戶的價值主張的強勁程度。

  • But as we chatted back in April, Bonnie, I mean, underlying consumption, we expected it to be ahead of shipments for the second quarter in line with what we saw in the first quarter. And as we think about what transcended in the quarter, a couple of things. One, shipments in North America consumer categories, in fact, lagged consumption by about 170 basis points.

    不過如同我們在四月聊到的,Bonnie,我是說,基礎消費我們原本預期在第二季會領先出貨,這與我們在第一季看到的情況一致。而回顧本季發生的事情,有幾點。第一,北美消費品類的出貨確實落後消費約 170 個基點。

  • And to be clear, the shipments were down about 1.4% in consumer as opposed to a consumption growth, which was 0.3%. And that was mainly by two factors. The first one, as we chatted back in April, the LA distribution center fire would represent a headwind of around 80 basis points to top line in the quarter for North America, and that largely came in as expected, right around $22 million to be exact.

    說清楚一點,消費端出貨下滑約 1.4%,相較之下消費成長為 0.3%。這主要由兩個因素造成。第一個,如同我們四月聊到的,洛杉磯配送中心火災在本季對北美營收端會造成約 80 個基點的逆風,而結果大致符合預期,確切來說約 2,200 萬美元。

  • And then in addition, we had the retailer inventory movements, which in total year on year, impacted shipments growth by roughly 100 basis points versus last year. And of this, we had about half of that was not something we anticipated when we gave you our outlook back in April. And this had to do with a particular channel and largely the adult category.

    此外,我們也遇到零售商庫存變動,合計在年對年比較下,使出貨成長相較去年約少了 100 個基點。其中大約一半,是我們在四月給出展望時未預期到的。這與某一特定通路有關,且主要發生在成人品類。

  • Taken together, these two factors largely explain the gap between shipments and consumption. If you look at the first half, three factors would have caused shipments to lag consumption by right around 200 basis points for the North American consumer business. And these are, one, the LA distribution fire, which was around 40 basis points of a headwind in the half. Then the retailer inventory movements, which, for the half, represented again about 100 basis points year on year.

    綜合來看,這兩個因素大致解釋了出貨與消費之間的落差。若看上半年,有三個因素會使北美消費者業務的出貨落後消費約 200 個基點。第一是洛杉磯配送中心火災,上半年約帶來 40 個基點的逆風。第二是零售商庫存變動,上半年同樣約為年對年 100 個基點。

  • And then lastly, as we chatted back in April, we had a heightened activation programming across several channels, particularly club, which started early in Q1. And for these, we have made the shipments largely in the end of 2025. But to add some color on why we see the second half gaining steam, I'll try and throw over the (inaudible) to Russ.

    最後,如同我們四月聊到的,我們在多個通路加大了促銷/推廣活動規劃,特別是會員制賣場(club),而且在第一季初就開始。針對這些活動,我們大多已在 2025 年底完成出貨。不過,為了補充一些我們為何看見下半年動能轉強的背景,我把(聽不清)交給 Russ。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Bonnie, I think overall, look, we are very confident in the health of our North America business. And while Nelson unpacked the drivers of the quarter, which was below expectations. If you kind of look at the bigger picture, we've gained -- we've driven volume plus mix-led growth in 8 of the last 10 quarters. The trailing 12-month share, we've gained share in 70% of our sales base in North America.

    Bonnie,我想整體來看,我們對北美業務的健康狀況非常有信心。雖然 Nelson 已拆解了本季低於預期的驅動因素。但若從更大的格局來看,過去 10 個季度中有 8 個季度,我們推動了「量 + 組合」帶動的成長。以過去 12 個月的市占來看,我們在北美銷售基盤的 70% 範圍內都取得了市占提升。

  • And if you look at the share in the quarter, the majority of the weighted average share decline was driven by that club distribution loss, which we talked about previously in the last couple of calls. And we do have a very strong innovation pipeline as well as brand investments coming. Our tissue business is performing extremely well. Our e-commerce business continues to perform really well.

    如果看本季的市占,多數加權平均市占下滑是由我們在會員制賣場(club)的通路鋪貨/配銷流失所驅動,這點我們在前幾次電話會議中也談過。我們也有非常強的創新產品管線,以及即將投入的品牌投資。我們的面紙(tissue)業務表現非常好。我們的電商業務也持續表現得很強。

  • And in the second half, we'll be scaling those innovations and we've got some very good activation planning as well as some revenue growth management actions coming. So we do feel confident in the second half that the outlook really is to grow in line with our categories, but we'll be able to achieve that considering all the elements that Nelson mentioned.

    而在下半年,我們會把這些創新規模化,同時也有一些非常好的促銷/推廣活動規劃,以及一些收益成長管理(RGM)措施即將推出。因此,我們對下半年的信心在於,展望確實是與我們的品類同步成長,而且考量到 Nelson 提到的所有因素,我們有能力達成。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And it's an easier comp as well because the other benefit, remember, Q2 in North America, we had 5% volume growthin the prior year. So the comps get easier as we go into the second half in North America.

    另外,基期也更容易,因為另一個好處是,記得去年北美第二季的銷量成長是 5%。所以進入北美下半年後,年對年比較的基期會變得更容易。

  • Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

    Bonnie Herzog - Analyst

  • Okay. Helpful color. I'll pass it on. Thank you.

    好的。這些補充很有幫助。我把時間交出去。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    Michael Lavery,Piper Sandler。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • I just want to touch on innovation and you've laid out a robust pipeline this year, obviously, and you touched on some examples in the prepared remarks, which are great. Maybe just help us understand some of how it's running against expectations and timing. And I guess, specifically, how much wraps maybe into 2027 and maybe it's just overshadowed a bit this year by China disruptions and destocking.

    我想簡單談一下創新。你們今年顯然提出了很強的產品管線,也在事先準備的講稿中提到一些很好的例子。也許請幫我們理解一下,目前執行狀況相對於預期與時程如何。我想更具體地問,有多少可能會延伸到 2027 年?也許今年因為中國的干擾與去庫存而有點被掩蓋。

  • But then I would also love to understand the new fiber platform, maybe how quickly that could drive new end products? And what if any upfront costs we should keep in mind about how you launch that?

    另外我也很想了解新的纖維平台,可能多快能帶動新的終端產品?以及在推出時,有沒有任何前期成本需要我們留意?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Michael. Yeah, overall, on innovation, I'd say we feel great about our innovation that we're launching. And I think we said at the beginning of the year that this is probably the most commercial activation of innovation that we've had in my time here at Kimberly-Clark.

    是的。好的。謝謝你,Michael。整體來看,關於創新,我會說我們對正在推出的創新感到非常滿意。而且我想我們在年初就說過,這可能是我在金佰利(Kimberly-Clark)任內,創新商業化推動最強的一年。

  • And I would tell you, I would say also that pipeline is good going forward. I think if you see kind of what we're doing this year, I think the stuff that we have coming in the next few years, I feel like we're going to be bigger and better than that. And so I'm really excited about our development.

    我也會告訴你,我也會說,往後的產品管線也很不錯。我認為如果你看看我們今年在做的事情,再看接下來幾年我們將推出的內容,我覺得會比今年更大、更好。所以我對我們的開發進展非常興奮。

  • And I think that reflects the discipline that we've had in our organization, and this is kind of an artifact of this kind of fast agile matrix that kind of pulls the markets and the functions together, Michael, I think we started looking further -- much further out. And one of our core metrics is future pipeline development, and we're feeling like -- we're feeling pretty good about the trajectory.

    我認為這反映了我們組織一直以來的紀律,而這也算是這種快速、敏捷的矩陣式運作的成果,它把各市場與各職能拉在一起。Michael,我想我們開始把視野放得更遠——遠得多。而我們的一項核心指標就是未來產品管線的開發,我們覺得——我們對這個走勢感覺相當不錯。

  • But maybe, Russ, you may want to comment about some of the (inaudible).

    不過也許,Russ,你可能想就一些(聽不清)。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yeah. I'll just double click a little bit, Mike, on that and talk a little bit more. You may have recalled our Chief R&D Officer, Craig Slavtcheff talking about the pipeline development and that's one of the reasons why we're very confident as we can see into the future in the next three years and the quality of our consumer insights has gotten better and then the Powering Care matrix has really enabled us to scale innovations around the world much more quickly.

    好的。Mike,我再更深入一點補充,並多談一些。你可能還記得我們的研發長 Craig Slavtcheff 談過產品管線的開發,這也是我們之所以非常有信心的原因之一,因為我們能看到未來三年的情況,而且我們的消費者洞察品質變得更好;同時 Powering Care 的矩陣也讓我們能更快速地在全球擴大創新規模。

  • And so we've done that in Fem Care. You're seeing the impact of that in IPC, for example, where we've seen our organic growth accelerating our share gains coming through in categories like diapers and that really is significantly driven by innovation. I think that's what's been powering the North America business, especially in Personal Care, and now you're seeing it come through in tissue.

    因此我們已在女性護理(Fem Care)做到這點。你也在 IPC 看到其影響,例如我們看到有機成長加速、市占提升在像是尿布等品類逐步顯現,而這在很大程度上是由創新所驅動。我認為這一直在推動北美業務,特別是在個人護理(Personal Care),而現在你也看到它在面紙(tissue)業務中開始顯現。

  • So it really is a broad-based set rather than any one particular innovation. I think we feel very good about the portfolio we're building and have continued visibility that that's going to take shape and gain traction time through that three-year funnel process that we've been diligently building with the teams around the world.

    所以這確實是一套廣泛布局的組合,而不是任何單一的特定創新。我認為我們對正在打造的產品組合感到非常有信心,而且我們持續看得到它將在我們與全球團隊勤奮建立的三年漏斗流程中逐步成形並獲得市場動能。

  • So I don't know if you want to talk about the fiber one or --?

    所以我不確定你是否想談談那個纖維的部分,或是--?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, Michael, hopefully, you can tell we're very excited about our alternative natural fiber program. And through that, we really believe we're going to positively impact the category, the planet and the economics of the business. I think material invention has been a core of Kimberly-Clark.

    是的,Michael,希望你看得出來,我們對替代性天然纖維計畫感到非常興奮。透過這個計畫,我們確實相信我們將對品類、地球以及業務的經濟性帶來正向影響。我認為材料發明一直是金佰利(Kimberly-Clark)的核心。

  • Two weeks ago, I was up in Neenah, and I was meeting with the family of the company's second CEO, a man named F.J. Sensenbrenner and I was reminded by them that under his watch, they launched a product called Cellucotton, and that was an invention at the time that ultimately became Kotex and Kleenex and then eventually bath tissue, but the creation of that tissue-based product. And so I would say this is similar, right?

    兩週前我在尼納(Neenah),我與公司第二任執行長F.J. Sensenbrenner先生的家人見面,他們提醒我,在他任內推出了一款名為Cellucotton的產品;那在當時是一項發明,最終演變成Kotex與Kleenex,之後又延伸到衛生紙等產品,也就是那種以紙巾為基礎的產品的創造。所以我會說這是類似的,對吧?

  • And this is the culmination of over two decades of material and plant science investment and development. And I really do think this has the potential to become our next great material platform. In the -- with the heritage of Cellucotton, I think we believe we invented global -- or the nonwovens platform as well.

    而這是二十多年材料科學與植物科學投資與研發的結晶。我真的認為這有潛力成為我們下一個偉大的材料平台。以Cellucotton的傳承來看,我想我們也相信我們發明了全球——或者說不織布(nonwovens)平台。

  • And so this would be like that. And I think it's going to be great on the three dimensions that I mentioned earlier. Number one, better for consumers. This fiber has unique properties, and it pushes the frontiers of the softness versus strength kind of frontier, right? And so for a given amount of strength, it adds superior softness.

    所以這會像那樣。而且我認為它會在我先前提到的三個面向都表現出色。第一,對消費者更好。這種纖維具有獨特特性,它推進了「柔軟度與強度」之間的前沿界線,對吧?因此在相同強度需求下,它能帶來更優異的柔軟度。

  • And so that will enable us to make a superior tissue. So number two, obviously, we believe it's better for the planet, Michael. It's a farm crop. So that's going to replace natural forest fiber in our production mix. And so because of that, it's also super land efficient. If you think about our requirements for pulp, that's harvested for millions of acres annually, right?

    因此這將使我們能製造出更優質的紙巾產品。第二,顯然我們相信它對地球更好,Michael。它是一種農作物。因此它將在我們的生產組合中取代天然森林纖維。也因此,它的土地使用效率非常高。如果你想想我們對紙漿的需求,那每年要採伐數百萬英畝的林地,對吧?

  • And so -- and this product would be very dense, very land efficient and it's grown on a fraction of the acreage to source an equivalent amount of volume. So that's part two. And then part three, it's uniquely -- it grows only in arid conditions and because of that, it's a water miser, and so it does not consume very much water. And in fact, being a farm crop, then it would take on a fraction of some of the crops that are currently produced in the region.

    所以——而這種產品的纖維密度很高、土地效率很高,只需要相當小的一部分種植面積,就能取得等量的供應。這是第二部分。第三,它很獨特——只在乾旱條件下生長,而正因如此,它非常節水,不會消耗太多水。而且事實上,作為一種農作物,它也可以取代目前該地區正在種植的部分作物,而且所需比例只是其中的一小部分。

  • So we're excited about the impact on the planet that we have the potential to have. And then, obviously, we wouldn't be pursuing this if it didn't have good economics. And so it has the potential for us to enhance margins and then, obviously, Michael, further reduce volatility. So that's an update on that.

    所以我們對它可能對地球帶來的影響感到興奮。然後,顯然如果它沒有良好的經濟性,我們也不會推進這件事。因此它有潛力提升我們的利潤率,並且顯然,Michael,也能進一步降低波動性。以上就是這方面的最新進展。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And Michael, on investments, just so you're on the loop, I mean we -- this has been factored into our investment profile for the last years. And we -- anything we've invested and anything we've expensed is been part of the results we've been reporting, and we've included in our outlook for the next few years in our strategic plans the capital requirements to continue to drive this initiative of some of the other ones we're doing.

    另外,Michael,關於投資,讓你掌握一下:我們——這些內容在過去幾年已納入我們的投資概況。而且我們——我們投入的資本支出以及認列的費用,都已反映在我們所報告的業績之中;同時在我們未來幾年的策略規劃展望裡,也已包含持續推動這項倡議以及我們正在進行的其他一些倡議所需的資本需求。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And maybe the -- and I'm sure you may have a follow-up question, Michael. But I mean, one of the reasons we're talking about it now is because out there and we're breaking ground on a pilot facility. We've already acquired thousands of acres of land to grow this on, right? And so that -- we prefer not to acquire more land.

    是的。而且也許——我相信你可能會有後續問題,Michael。不過,我們現在談這件事的原因之一,是因為我們已經在外部動工興建一座試點設施。我們也已經取得了數千英畝土地來種植它,對吧?因此——我們傾向不要再取得更多土地。

  • We prefer to turn it into a cash crop for the farm community. And so again, having the larger community to understand kind of what we're trying to do here will also help us be a little more capital efficient.

    我們更希望把它變成農業社群的一種現金作物。所以同樣地,讓更大的社群理解我們在這裡想做什麼,也會幫助我們在資本使用上更有效率。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • That's great color. I'll go ahead and pass it on. Thanks.

    這些補充資訊很有幫助。我就先把時間交給下一位。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve Powers, Deutsche Bank.

    Steve Powers,德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Mike, I was hoping we could go back to North America and really the competitive and promotional environment. I just love a little bit more perspective on how you've seen those conditions evolve over the past 6 months. To what extent it's sort of exacerbated that choppiness and maybe the lower category growth that you spoke to? And most importantly, how do you think it plays out over the balance of the year?

    Mike,我希望我們能回到北美市場,談談競爭與促銷環境。我很想多了解一些你們如何看待過去6個月這些狀況的演變。在多大程度上,它加劇了你提到的那種波動,以及可能較低的品類成長?最重要的是,你認為今年剩餘時間會如何發展?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Let me start and Russ to kind of -- Russ all over this. But I would say, I think if you look at the facts, clearly, the promotion kind of environment is increasing slightly, right? And we're seeing that both from the other big branded competitors, but also some of the smaller brands, right? And so that -- I would say that, that comes and goes in this category, and I've been -- I think it was my 14th year here.

    是的。我先開始,然後Russ來補充——Russ對這塊非常熟。但我會說,如果你看事實,顯然促銷環境正在小幅升溫,對吧?我們看到這不僅來自其他大型品牌競爭對手,也來自一些較小的品牌,對吧?所以——我會說,這在這個品類裡時有起伏;而我在這裡——我想這是我在這裡的第14年。

  • And so we're seeing -- and I remember like periods of high promotion intensity and then I would say the last several have been a little bit more moderated post COVID. And I think the reality is despite that, those swings, the reality is these are kind of very stable consumption categories where consumption doesn't change because of promotion, right? And so for us, I think having a business that is a little bit more stable allows you to run it more efficiently and allows you to bring the innovation that can help expand the category over time. And so for us, that's why we're not the proponents of driving excessive promotion in our categories. But maybe Russ, you can give them a little more color on that.

    所以我們看到——我也記得曾有促銷強度很高的時期;而我會說,COVID之後的過去幾年則相對更為溫和。而我認為現實是,儘管有這些起伏,這些其實是非常穩定的消費型品類,消費量不會因為促銷而改變,對吧?因此對我們而言,擁有更穩定的業務能讓你更有效率地營運,也能讓你推出有助於隨時間擴大品類的創新。所以對我們來說,這也是為什麼我們不是在我們的品類中推動過度促銷的倡議者。不過Russ,也許你可以再補充一些細節。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Absolutely, Mike, and you said it well. I think, Steve, we're focused on developing compelling value propositions at every tier every day while maintaining pricing and PNOC discipline over time. And in fact, in '25, our promo activity was below both pre-COVID levels and the category. And through the first half of '26, our promotional levels were down versus the prior year and the category and the majority of our categories. We did see, and this is perhaps what you're referring to tick up in competitive activity across multiple categories as well as we did increase promotional support in some categories, especially diapers.

    當然可以,Mike,你說得很好。Steve,我們的重點是在每一個價位層級、每天都提供具吸引力的價值主張,同時長期維持定價與PNOC的紀律。事實上,在2025年,我們的促銷活動低於COVID前水準,也低於品類整體。而在2026年上半年,我們在多數品類的促銷水準相較前一年以及相較品類整體都更低。我們確實看到——這可能就是你所指的——競爭對手在多個品類的活動略有升溫;同時我們也在部分品類增加了促銷支援,尤其是尿布。

  • And that was specifically done for a purpose that's consistent with what Mike was outlining in terms of the philosophy to drive trial on key innovation launches, and we did also put some promotional activity into the marketplace to help us transition from that club distribution change that we had been talking about for a while. And we'd expect that to normalize for us, and we're going to remain consistently focused on delivering the compelling value propositions every day and PNOC discipline. And so you look for that promo activity for us to normalize over the balance of the year. and we're going to continue focusing on winning with innovation and brand building. And as Mike said, I think we're confident that over time, the wisdom of the fact that promotion doesn't grow the category will, we'll find its way back into the market.

    而那樣做是有特定目的的,與 Mike 所概述、以理念驅動在關鍵創新上市時進行試用的方向一致;同時,我們也在市場上投入了一些促銷活動,協助我們從先前談了好一段時間的會員店(club)通路配銷變更中順利過渡。我們預期這些情況會回歸常態,而我們將持續一致地專注於每天提供具吸引力的價值主張,以及 PNOC 紀律。因此,你會看到我們的促銷活動在今年剩餘期間逐步正常化;我們也會持續聚焦以創新與品牌建設取勝。而且如 Mike 所說,我想我們有信心,隨著時間推移,「促銷並不會帶動品類成長」這個道理會再次回到市場的共識之中。

  • Steve Powers - Analyst

    Steve Powers - Analyst

  • Great. And then I guess, Russ, this is maybe for you as well. But when you guys collectively talk about the Kenvue synergy planning running ahead of expectations. I guess for those of us on the outside, should we interpret that as greater confidence, maybe faster realization of the existing $1.9 billion cost synergy target? Or are you beginning to identify incremental synergy opportunities of Bio's original assumptions?

    很好。接著我想,Russ,這題也許也適合你回答。當你們整體談到 Kenvue 的協同效益規劃進度超出預期時,對我們外部的人來說,是否應解讀為更有信心、也許能更快實現既有的 19 億美元成本協同目標?還是你們開始辨識出超出原先假設的額外協同機會?

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes. I think what it reflects is greater confidence in the path to achieve that we've outlined at this stage. It's still relatively early, but the bottom-up pipeline that we're building is based on specific initiatives in specific areas that are based on bottoms-up analytics. And now as you probably noticed, we've got kind of 50 teams and 600 people working on this. So I would call them being execution shovel-ready actions that we feel very confident in converting into a plan that we can confidently forecast delivery of.

    是的。我認為這反映的是:對於達成我們在此階段所勾勒的路徑,我們更有信心。目前仍相對早期,但我們正在建立的自下而上(bottom-up)專案管線,是基於特定領域、特定措施,並以自下而上的分析為基礎。而且如你可能注意到的,我們大概有 50 個團隊、600 人在做這件事。所以我會把它們稱為可立即執行、已準備就緒(shovel-ready)的行動;我們非常有信心把它們轉化為一個計畫,並能有把握地預測其交付成果。

  • And so that's exciting to us to have that visibility. It's probably a little early to see how that shakes out over 3 years, but we're working very quickly to fill that in and feel very confident that we're moving in the right direction at pace. I don't know.

    因此,能有這樣的能見度讓我們很振奮。要看它在 3 年期間會如何展開可能還稍早,但我們正非常快速地把細節補齊,也很有信心我們正以適當的速度朝正確方向前進。我不知道。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • And just to add, Steve, I mean, we're not getting into unpacking what the cadence will be at this stage because, obviously, things are happening that you guys have seen in Kenvue. I mean they've already announced some actions that we are in the process of factoring in to our plans, which, obviously, to the extent that that's delivering savings that we would have contemplated all the better. But again, a lot of moving pieces that we're working through. The overall confidence really goes back to your -- what you said first. Our confidence in the total number of synergies and we'll be back when we get to the closing of the transaction to give an update on what is that cadence, what are those numbers exactly factoring in the actions that Kenvue is taking this year such that you can do the updates, and we can have that all cleared out.

    再補充一下,Steve,我是說,我們目前不會去拆解節奏(cadence)會是怎樣,因為很明顯地,Kenvue 那邊正在發生一些你們也看得到的事情。他們已經宣布了一些行動,我們正在把這些納入我們的規劃中;而且很顯然,若那些行動帶來的節省正是我們原本會預期的,那就更好。但同樣地,我們正在處理許多變動因素。整體信心其實回到你一開始說的那點。我們對協同效益總額的信心;等到交易完成交割時,我們會再回來更新:節奏是什麼、數字到底是多少,並把 Kenvue 今年採取的行動納入考量,讓你們可以更新模型,而我們也能把這些都釐清。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And Steve, maybe I'll just add a little pop on the thing, which is I think I said when I was at you over the summer, hey, the closer we look at this thing, the better it gets. And part of it is, certainly, I think right now, we're focused -- and Russ is on point for helping us line up the synergy commitment, right? And so -- but I would tell you, -- so we're not signing up for more than that at this point. But I would say we're feeling very good about the operationalization of that.

    是的。Steve,我也許再補充一點,我想我今年夏天跟你談時就說過:我們越仔細看這件事,感覺就越好。其中一部分當然是,我想我們現在的重點——而 Russ 也很到位地在協助我們把協同承諾對齊,對吧?所以——但我會告訴你,——我們目前不會承諾超出那個數字。但我會說,我們對把它落地執行(operationalization)這件事感覺非常好。

  • We did have our leadership teams, the future leadership team together for a week last month. And then we've had these detailed assessments done of the entire management teams on both companies kind of brought in and just to evaluate as we're selecting talent. And the thing that the lead facilitator from that organization pointed out was the extraordinary unique kind of attribute of the combined team was a deep focus on execution. And we love that because we -- hopefully, you guys are seeing that one of our calling cards is excellent execution. And so as kind of Russ helps us and the integration team leads us through the process, we're gaining confidence in that.

    上個月我們讓領導團隊、也就是未來的領導團隊,一起共事了一週。接著,我們也對兩家公司整個管理團隊做了這些詳細評估,把大家都帶進來,主要是為了在選才時進行評量。而該機構的首席引導者指出,合併後團隊一個非常獨特、非同尋常的特質,是對執行力的深度聚焦。我們很喜歡這點,因為——希望你們也看得到——我們的一個招牌就是卓越的執行。因此,當 Russ 協助我們、整合團隊帶領我們走過這個流程時,我們對此更有信心。

  • That said, and so we're not signing up for more synergies, but I will tell you part of my, the closer you look, the better it gets, is there's more growth in these categories than we originally thought when we did this deal. And I would say these categories are -- especially when we look on the Kenvue side, right? They tend to be a little bit more underdeveloped mostly because there's a pretty significant gap between the incidence of a health issue and treatment. And that's a little bit different for us, right? If you think about it, if you're if you are going to the bathroom, you're probably in the bath tissue category or if you have a baby, you're probably in the diaper category.

    話雖如此,因此我們不會承諾更多協同效益,但我會告訴你,我所說的「越看越好」其中一部分,是這些品類的成長性比我們當初做這筆交易時所想的還要高。我會說,這些品類——尤其是我們看 Kenvue 那一側時,對吧?它們往往相對更未被充分開發,主要因為健康問題的發生率與接受治療之間存在相當大的落差。這對我們來說有點不同,對吧?如果你想想看,你如果要上廁所,你大概就會在衛生紙品類;或者你有小孩,你大概就在尿布品類。

  • So this gap to incidents isn't really common in our categories. But I think it's very common in the consumer health categories. And so we're really excited about that because that's something that can be expanded through the right category building programming.

    所以「發生率到使用」的落差在我們的品類中並不常見。但我認為在消費者健康(consumer health)品類中非常常見。因此我們對此非常興奮,因為透過正確的品類建設(category building)方案,這個空間是可以被擴大的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Lauren Lieberman, Barclays.

    Barclays 的 Lauren Lieberman。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Just wanted to go back again to pricing and promotional environment in the U.S. I know Russ and Mike, you just kind of covered off on us. But just getting a little bit more specific, I think when we look at Nielsen data, which I know is not the end all be all for what's actually happening in the marketplace. But it's like some of the was promotion has now been in the -- from you guys has now been in the market so long and it's actually showing up as lower price not being captured as promotions. So as we think going forward, and with your comments on PNOC and I think what implies some price increases from here, I wanted to try to understand how much of that is less promotional activity versus real list price increases as you manage through cost inflation.

    我想再回到美國的定價與促銷環境。我知道 Russ 和 Mike 你們剛剛大致已經談到。但我想更具體一點:我們看尼爾森(Nielsen)數據——我知道那不一定能完全代表市場上實際發生的一切。但看起來你們的一些促銷已經在市場上持續很久,甚至開始呈現為較低的價格,而不是被歸類為促銷。因此往前看,結合你們對 PNOC 的評論,以及我認為那暗示接下來可能會有一些漲價,我想了解:在你們因應成本通膨的過程中,其中有多少是促銷活動減少所致,多少又是真正的牌價(list price)上調?

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Lauren, I'll take that one. It's Russ. Yes, I think you're right to point that out. And our focus has been growing volume and mix, and you hit the word on the PNOC discipline. And in fact, what you're seeing on the headwinds, I think, have been a few temporary dynamics, and you called out a couple.

    Lauren,我來回答。我是 Russ。是的,我認為你指出的點很對。我們的重點一直是提升銷量(volume)與組合(mix),而你也提到了 PNOC 紀律這個關鍵字。事實上,你看到的那些逆風,我認為有幾個是暫時性的動態,而你也點出了其中幾個。

  • We have had some temporary promotions in the marketplace but also have made some targeted revenue growth management actions to address specific consumer-driven opportunities and sharpened value surgically. And also, you're also going to see a channel mix element as the consumer looks for more value, both in terms of what channels they're shopping in online and club and pack sizes, that has an impact on our pricing. And so that's part of what you saw in the first half of this year of seeing total company pricing down 50 bps. And over time, innovation and brand activation are going to continue to drive that, but we will be taking pricing actions. So to cover inflation in the second half of this year, and the magnitude of that, if you think about that in the overall portfolio will be kind of low single digits overall.

    我們在市場上確實做了一些短期促銷,但同時也採取了一些有針對性的營收成長管理(revenue growth management)行動,以掌握特定由消費者驅動的機會,並以更精準的方式強化價值主張。此外,當消費者尋求更高性價比時,你也會看到通路組合(channel mix)的因素——包括他們在線上與會員店(club)等通路購物,以及選擇的包裝規格(pack sizes)——這些都會影響我們的定價表現。因此,這也是你在今年上半年看到公司整體定價下滑 50 個基點(bps)的一部分原因。隨著時間推移,創新與品牌啟動(brand activation)會持續帶動改善,但我們也會採取定價行動。因此,為了在今年下半年覆蓋通膨,其幅度若以整體產品組合來看,大致會是低個位數(low single digits)。

  • Those are in the marketplace now, and you'll be seeing those come through. And that's part of the balance of the cycle of trying to balance out PNOC discipline over time using all the levers in the toolkit. And again, we've done that in some cases with innovation attached to it. And in other cases, targeted our revenue growth management actions based on just commodity movements that we had to hit. So the main point is, I think, as part of the cycle, we're looking at innovation and brand building is the thing that will carry price mix over the long run, but we will be taking action in some areas to address some of those issues in the marketplace.

    那些目前已在市場上,你們會看到它們陸續反映出來。而這也是循環中的一部分:運用工具箱裡所有槓桿,隨時間推移去平衡 PNOC 紀律。再者,我們在某些情況下是把創新結合在一起來做。而在其他情況下,則是僅基於我們必須因應的商品價格變動,來針對性地調整我們的營收成長管理作為。所以重點是,我認為作為循環的一部分,我們著眼於創新與品牌建設,這將在長期支撐價格/組合(price mix);但我們也會在某些領域採取行動,以處理市場上的一些問題。

  • Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

    Lauren Lieberman - Analyst

  • Great. And Russ, just to clarify, if I can, the low single-digit pricing statement. Is that a North America number or a global number?

    很好。Russ,我想再釐清一下,如果可以的話,關於「低個位數定價」這個說法。這是北美的數字,還是全球的數字?

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, it's primarily in North America. That number, I think, globally is going to vary a lot based on the geography. So we have taken actions around the world as well.

    是的,主要是在北美。我認為這個數字在全球會因地區而有很大差異。所以我們在世界各地也採取了行動。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • So we've taken actions across many countries, as you might imagine, Lauren. So -- and the overall is following the principle of pricing net of cost neutral over time. But it's not just revenue growth management. Remember, we're also delivering the highest productivity we've ever delivered. We're also managing a negotiations and contracts with our vendors and our suppliers.

    所以如你所想像的,Lauren,我們在許多國家都採取了行動。整體上遵循的原則是:隨時間推移,定價在扣除成本後要保持中性(pricing net of cost neutral)。但這不只是營收成長管理。別忘了,我們也交付了我們有史以來最高的生產力提升。我們也在管理與供應商及供貨商的談判與合約。

  • So it's the full toolkit and not just that, that's one number.

    所以這是完整的工具箱,而不只是那一項;那只是其中一個數字。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • And let me underscore -- I'm sorry, Mike, just to underscore that. The innovation is the key element to that, that helps create premiumization and positive mix and also helps drive growth that really, to me, is the core of that engine.

    我再強調一下——抱歉,Mike,就再強調一次。創新是其中的關鍵要素,它有助於打造高端化(premiumization)與正向組合(positive mix),也有助於推動成長;對我而言,這才是那個引擎的核心。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. And maybe related to what Russ was just talking about, Lauren, the guiding thing for us is, especially in this environment, we have to have a superior value proposition. And so -- and that's kind of the company's focus. And so even though with inflation, there are some PNOC actions we have to take, we're always going to be cognizant of making sure we're offering a great value. And I think if you look at the past couple of years, we've paid particular attention to the value consumer or the middle-income consumer, I think they've been under more stress.

    是的。也許呼應 Russ 剛才談到的,Lauren,對我們而言的指導原則是,尤其在這樣的環境下,我們必須具備更優越的價值主張(value proposition)。因此——這也是公司聚焦的方向。所以即便在通膨之下,我們必須採取一些 PNOC 行動,我們也會始終留意,確保我們提供的是很好的價值。而且我認為,如果你看過去幾年,我們特別關注重視價值的消費者或中等收入消費者;我認為他們承受的壓力更大。

  • And we think our approach to sharpen that offering, both in terms of product quality, primarily through product quality, I think, has worked really hard for us.

    而我們認為,我們強化這項產品/方案的做法——在產品品質方面,主要是透過產品品質——我認為對我們非常奏效。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • It may be too early to ask this about 2027. But with all of the noise this year from a lot of incidents that certainly could be considered transitory, would you consider 2027 to have an easy comparison at this point? Or is it that these are volatile times? There's not a lot of visibility to that. And so don't get your hopes up.

    現在問 2027 年也許還太早。但今年有很多雜音,來自不少事件,這些事件當然可以被視為短暫性的(transitory)。在此時點,你會認為 2027 年的比較基期會很容易嗎?還是說這是波動的時代?能見度不高,所以不要抱太大期待。

  • So maybe you could -- I could start with there.

    所以也許你可以——我可以先從這裡開始。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. Well, one, I'm going to let Nelson kind of weigh in here. But Rob, I think the volatility is out there. And so I think that, that answer can vary a little bit depending on what the facts are kind of in the day. And so we're very focused on running the business for the long term.

    是的。嗯,第一,我會讓 Nelson 也來補充一下。但 Rob,我認為波動確實存在。所以我認為答案會因每天的事實狀況而略有不同。因此我們非常專注於以長期角度來經營這門生意。

  • But I think the thing that you point out in your question is there is a lot of volatility in the marketplace, and we're trying to make sense of it.

    但我想你在問題中指出的一點是:市場上有很多波動,而我們正試著理解它。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. And Rob, to Mike's point, I mean, we've been around for 154 years in counting we've gone through a lot of these cycles in prior lives. And obviously, this has gotten a little bit more the norm in the last few years. However, the underlying strength of the business, the power of our innovation pipelines, the executional prowess of our teams is second to none. And that, I think, is what carries the day.

    是的。Rob,就像 Mike 說的,我們已經走過 154 年,而且還在持續;我們在過去的人生階段也經歷過很多這樣的循環。而且顯然,過去幾年這種情況更成為常態。不過,業務的底層實力、我們創新管線的力量、以及團隊的執行能力,都是無可匹敵的。而我認為,這才是能夠支撐局面的關鍵。

  • I mean where we land in 2027, it's early to tell. As I was sharing with Chris earlier, the thing is the speed of the recovery in China is going to be one, and we factored in a significant amount for the balance of the second half, even though we're going to get back to growth in first, second quarter because we're seeing the strength of the innovation pipeline and the executional plans that we've got in place. We're also managing through the inflationary impacts in the Middle East. And as you heard, as we were chatting with Lauren, we are taking very clear actions to address in a thoughtful manner because we want to make sure that we're addressing our consumer needs, and we meet them where they need us to be. So that's all being factored in.

    至於 2027 年會落在哪裡,現在還言之過早。如同我先前和 Chris 分享的,其中一個因素是中國復甦的速度;我們已把下半年剩餘期間的相當大一部分納入考量,儘管我們會在第一、第二季回到成長,因為我們看到了創新管線的強勁,以及我們已就位的執行計畫。我們也在因應中東的通膨影響。而且如你聽到的,當我們和 Lauren 交流時,我們正以審慎的方式採取非常明確的行動,因為我們要確保能回應消費者需求,並在他們需要我們的地方滿足他們。所以這些都已納入考量。

  • We'll come back towards the end of the year, beginning of next year with what is the view for 2027, factoring that in. But I would also like to highlight that the strength of our categories, the resiliency of our categories is there. I mean we continue to grow trailing 12 months, about 2%. So that is solid, that is very solid. And we've been putting up their growth vol/mix in the last 9, 10 quarters consecutively.

    我們會在今年底、明年初再回來說明對 2027 年的看法,並把這些因素納入。但我也想強調,我們品類的強度、我們品類的韌性是存在的。也就是說,我們在過去 12 個月(trailing 12 months)仍持續成長,大約 2%。所以這很穩健,非常穩健。而且我們已連續 9、10 個季度繳出成長的量/組合(vol/mix)。

  • So the strength of the business is solid. We're very confident in our plans, and we'll just need to keep navigating the choppy waters we're in, as Mike referred to.

    所以業務的基本面很穩健。我們對計畫非常有信心;我們只需要持續在如 Mike 所說的這片顛簸水域中航行。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Okay. A quick follow-up. Is it going to be very easy for you to tell whether competition is following you on these price increases, particularly in North America. And you say that you expect the promotional environment to normalize eventually or at least your promotions to normalize, is it possible that if they don't follow, you might have to promote some of this back?

    好的。一個快速追問。你們是否很容易判斷競爭對手是否會跟進這些漲價,特別是在北美?另外你提到你預期促銷環境最終會正常化,或至少你們的促銷會正常化;如果他們不跟進,是否可能你們必須把其中一些再用促銷方式回吐?

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I'd say, Rob, it's always possible, but that's just not -- that we're going to run our play. Our play is really bringing great innovation, helping consumers understand how our innovation uniquely solves their problems in a different better way. We're going to drive productivity on our costs, and we want to be affordable. And so I think those are all the things.

    是的。我會說,Rob,這永遠有可能,但那不是——我們會照我們的打法來執行。我們的打法其實是帶來很棒的創新,幫助消費者理解我們的創新如何以不同且更好的方式,獨特地解決他們的問題。我們會推動成本端的生產力提升,而且我們希望價格可負擔。所以我認為這些就是全部的重點。

  • And I think that's the play. Are we paying close attention to the promotion environment? For sure, right? And we recognize we're not going to put our head in the sand. But I think we're also trying to manage our approach because we've seen the other approach, and it doesn't work.

    而我認為這就是策略。我們是否密切關注促銷環境?當然,對吧?我們也知道不能把頭埋在沙子裡。但我認為我們也在管理我們的方法,因為我們看過另一種做法,而那行不通。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Right. And the other one, Rob, is no one is immune in the mid, long term to the inflationary environment. The key is that you got to manage the entirety of the tool kit. And that's why we've been so focused on the productivity bid. And as we've been sharing, we still have in North America, a lot of room to go because we were still undertaking the $2 billion investment in the supply chain restructuring in North America that's coming on over the next few months and it will carry through in '27 and '28.

    沒錯。另外一點,Rob,中長期來看,沒有人能在通膨環境中置身事外。關鍵是你必須管理整個工具箱。這也是為什麼我們一直非常聚焦在生產力這一塊。而且如同我們一直分享的,在北美我們仍有很大的提升空間,因為我們仍在推進北美供應鏈重組的 20 億美元投資;這項投資會在未來幾個月逐步到位,並會延續到 2027 年與 2028 年。

  • So there's a lot of firepower on that end to manage. But again, we need to see how things play out over the next few quarters.

    所以在那一端有相當多的火力需要管理。但同樣地,我們需要看看接下來幾個季度事情會如何發展。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Rob, you may remember, I think I talked to you back when I used to work in the snack category and their promotions do drive incremental consumption. And by the way, so if your promotions are profitable, but then that's a viable strategy, but this is not the case in these categories. It's the opposite.

    Rob,你可能記得,我想我以前在零食品類工作時曾跟你聊過,他們的促銷確實會帶動增量消費。順帶一提,如果你的促銷是有利可圖的,那麼這就是一個可行的策略,但在這些品類並非如此。情況正好相反。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Grom, UBS.

    Peter Grom,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • I was hoping to just get some perspective on the input cost environment. So you noted in the prepared remarks, $150 million of inflation in the back half of the year, consistent with the range you provided back in April. Obviously, it's a volatile external environment. So maybe can you help unpack what's embedded in that assumption? And as we think about the back half, is the headwind evenly weighted or more pronounced in the third quarter.

    我希望能就投入成本環境取得一些觀點。你在事先準備的發言中提到,下半年有1.5億美元的通膨,與你們在4月提供的區間一致。顯然外部環境波動很大。所以你能否協助拆解一下這個假設中包含了哪些因素?另外,當我們思考下半年時,這個逆風是平均分布,還是在第三季更為明顯?

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So let me unpack a little bit what we've got for the second half and then also an update versus what we shared back in April because as you recall, we have not included the back half as part of the cost impact. So a few things. One, I do want to give a shout out to our teams. I mean they've been working very diligently to manage through the volatility that we've got, first and foremost, to ensure that we have product availability so we can serve our consumers and our customers.

    是的。我先稍微拆解一下我們對下半年的看法,並更新一下相較於我們在4月分享的內容,因為如你所記得的,我們當時並未把下半年納入成本影響的一部分。所以有幾點。第一,我確實想要向我們的團隊致意。他們一直非常努力地管理我們所面臨的波動,首要之務是確保產品供應充足,讓我們能服務消費者與客戶。

  • And then also to be able to manage through the higher costs such that we can deliver and our commitments. And a few things there. As we look at what we said back in April, we said that for the second quarter, we expected inflationary headwinds to be around $50 million for the quarter, primarily related to the higher oil-linked input costs as well as some of the impacts from the L.A. distribution center. Those impacts came through pretty much as expected and are reflected in our first half results.

    同時也要能管理較高的成本,以便我們能交付並達成我們的承諾。這裡有幾點。回到我們在4月所說的,我們表示第二季預期通膨逆風約為5,000萬美元,主要與較高的油價連動投入成本,以及洛杉磯配送中心的一些影響有關。這些影響大致如預期發生,並已反映在我們上半年的結果中。

  • As we look into the second half, what we said back then was, and that's in April, that if oil prices were to remain at around $100 per barrel, we could potentially face gross incremental input cost headwinds in the back half of the year of around $150 million to $170 million and that we have not included that nor any mitigating actions in our back half outlook. Currently, based on where oil prices are and the actions that we've started to undertake, our estimate for the second half is to be right around $150 million of gross input cost headwind. And these impacts are now fully incorporated into our outlook. Through a combination of mitigating actions already underway and the tariff refund benefit that we got in the second quarter, we now pretty much expect fully offset these incremental costs and maintain pricing net of cost inflation at roughly neutral levels for the full year.

    再看下半年,我們當時(4月)說的是,如果油價維持在每桶約100美元,我們在今年下半年可能面臨約1.5億至1.7億美元的毛額新增投入成本逆風,而我們並未把這些逆風或任何緩解行動納入下半年展望。目前,基於油價所在水準以及我們已開始採取的行動,我們對下半年的估計約為1.5億美元的毛額投入成本逆風。而這些影響現在已完整納入我們的展望。透過已在進行中的一系列緩解行動,以及我們在第二季取得的關稅退稅利益,我們現在基本上預期能完全抵銷這些新增成本,並使全年在扣除成本通膨後的定價大致維持在中性水準。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great. And then just one of the housekeeping on kind of what's going on in China. I think it was it was a 50 basis point headwind in 2Q, the guidance assumed a 100 basis point headwind for the year. So just trying to understand how we should be thinking about the phasing in the back half? Is it just more pronounced in 3Q and then you're assuming some improvement in 4Q?

    很好。接著是一個關於中國狀況的例行問題。我記得第二季是50個基點的逆風,而指引假設全年是100個基點的逆風。所以想了解一下,下半年應該如何看待其時點分布?是第三季更為明顯,然後你們假設第四季會有一些改善嗎?

  • And then, Russ, I think you mentioned you haven't seen any sequential deterioration, but it hasn't yet inflected. So just help us understand what you're kind of assuming in that 100 basis point headwind as well.

    另外,Russ,我想你提到你沒有看到任何連續性的惡化,但也還沒有出現拐點。所以也請協助我們理解,在那100個基點的逆風假設中,你們大致是怎麼想的。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President

  • Yes. So basically, the 100 basis points that you would do is we for the second half, that becomes about 200 basis points. And that's more or less evenly distributed in Q3 and Q4. That's kind of the way to look at it. And then from a profit standpoint, operating profit, also, we expect roughly $70 million of headwind in the back half, again, in operating profit, roughly half and half.

    是的。基本上,全年100個基點換算到下半年大約就是200個基點。而且大致上在第三季與第四季平均分布。大概可以這樣看。另外從獲利角度、也就是營業利益來看,我們也預期下半年約有7,000萬美元的逆風,同樣是在營業利益層面,大約各半分攤。

  • That translates to about $0.16 of EPS and that would be evenly split Q3, Q4. But I think, you want to add anything else for, Russ, or...

    換算下來約為每股盈餘(EPS)0.16美元,並且會在第三季、第四季平均分攤。不過我想,Russ,你還想補充其他內容嗎,或是……

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • No, I think you said it well, I think we've assumed a modest improvement in the trend, but nothing -- no inflections at this stage because we do feel like it's prudent to be conservative given that sometimes these things can take a long time. And we've got to see a lot more unfold before we're confident in changing an outlook on that. If we could take one more question and then wrap it up.

    沒有,我覺得你說得很好。我想我們假設趨勢會有溫和改善,但目前階段還沒有——沒有出現拐點,因為我們認為在這種情況下採取保守假設是審慎的,畢竟有時候這些事情可能需要很長時間。在我們有信心改變相關展望之前,還需要看到更多事情的發展。我們再接一個問題,然後就結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Javier Escalante, Evercore.

    Javier Escalante,Evercore。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • I have a question for Russ and one for Mike. Hopefully, the one on Russ is not an overkill, but if you can give us an update on diapers, it feels as if that these imports -- and this is U.S. diapers, imports, the ones backed by the retailers seem to be kind of peaking. So whether that is true. And also, there is any commentary on the overlap with the relaunch from -- by your main competitor in the U.S., any core order that would be great.

    我有一個問題問Russ,另一個問Mike。希望問Russ的那個不會太過頭,但如果你能更新一下尿布的情況:感覺這些進口——這是指美國尿布的進口、由零售商支持的那些——似乎正在見頂。所以想確認是否確實如此。另外,關於你們在美國的主要競爭對手重新上市(relaunch)所帶來的重疊影響,有沒有任何評論?任何核心訂單(core order)的資訊都會很有幫助。

  • And in tissue, we do see an improvement in July, and there is this powerful shift to club and online. So if you can comment what's driving that? And I have a question for Mike.

    另外在生活用紙方面,我們確實看到7月有所改善,而且出現了強勁轉向量販店通路(club)與線上的趨勢。所以如果你能評論一下是什麼在驅動這個變化?然後我還有一個問題要問Mike。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Javier, on the diaper question, I think you're right, you probably have your followed the category, and I have to know that there's been a long history of new players coming in. And then sometimes, the peak and then abate. Certainly, there's a lot of those entering the marketplace right now, and that's a dynamic we're contending with. And so our focus in terms of how we deal with that is to just stay focused on executing our strategy, which I think has been very successful around the world, and that's to continue bringing innovation and focus on strong value propositions at every tier good, better, best. And I think that has been working in North America prior to the club distribution change we've talked about.

    Javier,關於尿布的問題,我想你說得對,你大概一直有在追蹤這個品類;而我也必須說,這個市場長期以來一直有新玩家進入。然後有時候會達到高峰,之後又會回落。當然,現在確實有很多這類產品正在進入市場,這也是我們正在應對的一個動態。因此,我們在應對方式上的重點,就是持續專注於執行我們的策略;我認為這套策略在全球一直非常成功,也就是持續帶來創新,並在每一個層級(good、better、best)都聚焦於強而有力的價值主張。而我認為在我們談到的量販店通路分銷變化之前,這在北美一直運作得很好。

  • We've gained share 2 years in a row despite that competition. And we do have a good innovation agenda. I think we're now #1 in social engagement in '26. We've got a lot of good actions happening on premiumization. So we're going to stay focused on that in terms of how the other things play out, I think the consumers will decide.

    儘管有那樣的競爭,我們仍連續兩年提升市占。而且我們確實有很好的創新規劃。我想我們現在在「26年的社群互動」方面排名第一。我們在高端化(premiumization)上也有很多好的行動正在發生。所以我們會持續專注於這些;至於其他事情會如何發展,我想消費者會做出決定。

  • And we're confident that if we stay focused on our play, it's been very successful around the world, and that will continue to be true in North America. On the tissue, if I understood your question correctly, I think it was really just understanding a little bit more about what's maybe driving the improvement in our business. Is that right?

    我們有信心,只要持續專注於我們的打法——這在全球一直非常成功——在北美也會持續如此。至於生活用紙,如果我正確理解你的問題,我想你主要是想更了解,究竟是什麼可能在驅動我們業務的改善。是這樣嗎?

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • Correct.

    正確。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Yes, yes. Well, I think it's -- again, it's -- I hate to be a boring and repetitive, but it's the same thing. We really took the thinking of what are our value propositions buy value tier in the marketplace. and really focused on sharpening the strength of our offerings and then improving our innovations. And so you've seen that in Viva, which we highlighted, I think, in the call were that's really been working for us.

    是的,是的。嗯,我認為——再說一次,就是——我不想顯得無聊又重複,但其實是同一件事。我們確實把思考重點放在:我們在市場上各個價值層級(value tier)的價值主張是什麼,並且真正聚焦於強化我們產品組合的優勢,然後提升我們的創新。所以你在 Viva 上已經看到了這點;我想我們在電話會議中也特別強調過,這確實對我們很有效。

  • That's an example where we already have a great product. We just needed to activate it and do a better job in packaging it, communicating and building the brand, and that has been very successful. I think we gained 80 basis points of share in the second quarter on that. We've got great innovation on Kleenex, which has been really performing very, very well in gaining share consistently over the last several years, and we have some new innovations on format that have insights around them with respect to consumer usage occasions. And then on the dry bath side, we've done a great job, I think, sharpening our value, which is very, very important to a large swath of consumers and have done extremely well in the good tier this year to date.

    這就是一個例子:我們原本就有很棒的產品。我們只是需要把它啟動起來,並在包裝、溝通與品牌打造上做得更好,而這已經非常成功。我認為我們在第二季因此提升了 80 個基點的市占。我們在 Kleenex 上也有很棒的創新,過去幾年在持續擴大市占方面表現非常、非常好;而且我們在產品形式(format)上也有一些新的創新,背後有關於消費者使用情境(usage occasions)的洞察。另外在乾式沐浴(dry bath)這一端,我認為我們在強化自身的價值方面做得很好;這對很大一群消費者非常、非常重要,而我們今年迄今在「良好」層級(good tier)的表現也極為出色。

  • And so it's all those things together, Javier with brand building activation and innovation. And we actually have some very good things coming as well next year and the year following on tissue that we're excited about, in addition to the fiber thing. So there's a lot of good things happening there. So I'll turn it to Mike on the second part.

    所以,Javier,這些因素加在一起:品牌打造、啟動與創新。而且我們明年以及後年在面紙(tissue)方面也會有一些非常好的進展,我們對此很興奮,除了纖維那件事之外也是如此。所以那邊有很多好事正在發生。那我把第二部分交給 Mike。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes. I mean just a tag on. I know you got a question for me separately. But just -- I just want to emphasize, like the environment we understand. I mean the fact that there's more competitors entering categories in North America, I mean it's something that we're very well aware of.

    是的。我的意思是補充一下。我知道你另外也有一個問題要問我。但我只是——我只想強調,我們理解目前的環境。也就是說,北美有更多競爭者進入各個品類,這點我們非常清楚。

  • And I think you know we've been dealing with this for the past 10 years in China. There's 200 brands that we compete in diapers with in China. And we're very confident we have the best product in that market, which is why we became #1. And so the thing that maybe I'll just emphasize, it's -- and the playbook is right, but superior value proposition, I will tell you the anchor for our superior value proposition that K-C is differentiated product technologies. And so we feel fantastic about the innovations we've brought in personal care.

    而且我想你也知道,我們在中國過去 10 年一直在面對這種情況。在中國的尿布市場,我們要跟 200 個品牌競爭。我們非常有信心我們在那個市場擁有最好的產品,這也是為什麼我們成為第一名。所以我可能要再強調的是——策略手冊(playbook)是對的:更優越的價值主張;而我要告訴你,我們優越價值主張的核心支柱,是 K-C 差異化的產品技術。因此,我們對於在個人護理領域所帶來的創新感到非常振奮。

  • I promise you the innovation that you'll see in the next 3 years on personal care would be better than the ones we've launched over the last 10 years. It's also why we're doing things in tissue like alternative natural fibers, it's going to in my mind, change the category forever. And so again, that's kind of our bet, which is like -- and this is kind of the calling card to K-C, which is we are technologists first engineers, and we invent stuff, and we're good at it.

    我向你保證,未來 3 年你會在個人護理上看到的創新,會比我們過去 10 年推出的更好。這也是為什麼我們在面紙領域做像是替代性天然纖維這類事情;在我看來,這將永遠改變這個品類。所以再說一次,這就是我們的押注——而這也算是 K-C 的招牌:我們首先是技術人、工程師,我們會發明東西,而且我們很擅長。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • And Mike -- thank you for that, Mike. With the completion of the Suzano deal, right? Talk about a little bit, I guess, better or expand on what does it mean for you operating without the international tissue business right? What does it mean in terms of your capacity and resources to invest in international personal care and also reading the interaction of Kenvue.

    Mike——謝謝你,Mike。隨著 Suzano 交易完成,對吧?請談談,或再延伸一下:在不再經營國際面紙業務之後,對你們而言意味著什麼?就你們投資國際個人護理的產能與資源而言,這代表什麼?另外也請談談與 Kenvue 的互動如何解讀。

  • Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

    Michael Hsu - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer

  • Yes, for sure. We're really excited about the additional focus it brings, although that notwithstanding in a few months, there'll be a broader slot of categories, we'll have to focus on as well, but we feel very good about it. I think -- and maybe one of the best things, Javier, is I think, in setting up Arbex, it wasn't like we were trying to move on from a problem or a challenge. I think the whole fundamental premise of our joint venture with Suzano to create Arbex is we're going to create a world-class global competitor in the hygiene and tissue business. And I think when you combine the scale and capabilities of what Suzano brings with our commercial capability and knowledge of tissue making, I think that's a powerful combination.

    是的,當然。我們對於它帶來的額外聚焦感到非常興奮;不過即便如此,幾個月後我們也會有更廣泛的一組品類需要同樣聚焦,但我們對此感覺非常好。我想——也許其中最棒的一點,Javier,是在建立 Arbex 的過程中,我們並不是想要擺脫某個問題或挑戰。我認為我們與 Suzano 成立合資企業、打造 Arbex 的根本前提,是要在衛生與面紙業務中創造一個世界級的全球競爭者。而當你把 Suzano 帶來的規模與能力,與我們在商業端的能力以及對面紙製造的知識結合起來,我認為這是一個強而有力的組合。

  • And so I think there's no team within our company that was more excited than the Arbex team kind of getting started off about their future. And so we're really excited for them. Obviously, we all knew that we had this other thing, this alternative natural fiber up our sleeve as well. But again, I think part of it is we wanted to create an advantaged business on that side. And then certainly, within our house, the clear focus within personal care globally, I think, really helps us kind of drive the execution on that side.

    所以我認為,公司內沒有哪個團隊比 Arbex 團隊在啟動之初更為興奮、對未來更有期待。因此我們也為他們感到非常興奮。當然,我們都知道我們手上還有另一張牌,也就是替代性天然纖維。但再說一次,我想其中一部分原因是,我們希望在那一端打造一個具優勢的業務。而在我們公司內部,全球個人護理的明確聚焦,我認為確實能幫助我們在那一端推動執行。

  • Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

    Russell Torres - President, Chief Operating Officer

  • Javier, just done last one, Russ again. Just on the diapers point that you made. Yes, I just wanted to underscore that we have great respect for our competitors and for the things that are happening in the marketplace. But what gives us confidence as well even beyond the United States is just how things are unfolding around the world. And that really -- and Mike just mentioned the China product performance as we've rolled the playbook out to other markets in IPC, you can see the results coming through, notwithstanding the recent China issue we've had we've been performing very strong in sequential improvements and double-digit gains in markets like India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and we're really strongly making progress kind of around the world, especially when you look at things like market share and diapers, 390 basis points up in Indonesia as well as 70 basis points up in Brazil.

    Javier,最後一個,還是 Russ。就你剛才提到的尿布那點。是的,我只是想再次強調,我們非常尊重競爭對手,以及市場上正在發生的事情。但讓我們有信心的,甚至不只是在美國,而是全球各地事情的發展態勢。而且確實——Mike 剛才提到中國的產品表現;當我們把這套策略手冊(playbook)推廣到 IPC 的其他市場時,你可以看到成果逐步顯現。儘管我們最近在中國遇到一些問題,我們仍在連續改善上表現非常強勁,並在印度、東南亞、印尼等市場取得兩位數成長;我們在全球各地都在強力推進,特別是當你看市占與尿布時:印尼上升 390 個基點,巴西也上升 70 個基點。

  • That playbook is working. So that gives us confidence that it's not just regional battle, but the global playbook is translating across geographies, and that is no different in North America. And so that's really what we're focused on activating against and we believe in the long run that we'll be successful with that.

    這套策略手冊正在奏效。因此這讓我們有信心:這不只是區域性的戰役,而是全球策略手冊能跨地理區域落地並轉化成成果;北美也不例外。所以這正是我們專注去啟動與落實的方向,我們相信長期而言我們會因此成功。

  • Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

    Christopher Jakubik - Head of Investor Relations

  • We'll end it there for today. And for analysts who have follow-up questions, the IR team will be around to take them throughout the day. So thanks very much, and have a great day.

    我們今天就到這裡。若分析師有後續問題,投資人關係(IR)團隊今天一整天都會在場協助回覆。非常感謝,祝各位有美好的一天。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Everyone, this concludes today's event. You may disconnect at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you for your participation.

    謝謝。各位,今天的活動到此結束。您現在可以中斷連線,祝您有美好的一天。感謝您的參與。