金百利克拉克 (KMB) 2026 Q3 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • 本季營運穩健,克服一次性逆風,北美組織結構調整與庫存變動影響短期表現,個人護理與組織紙品持續展現動能。
    • 維持 2026 年財測指引,2027 年預期 EPS 將較獨立 KC 水準有中個位數百分比稀釋,2028 年回到中高個位數複合成長軌道。
    • Kenvue 併購案順利完成,市場聚焦整合進度與協同效益落地,管理層強調短期專注無縫整合與長期成長潛力。
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • Kenvue 併購帶來品牌組合與地理擴張新動能,強化醫療保健與快消品交集優勢。
      • 北美組織紙品與專業通路持續增長,個人護理於南韓、巴西、印尼等國際市場表現亮眼。
      • 創新產品與高端化策略推動嬰兒尿布等核心品類升級,Huggies 高階產品滲透率大幅提升。
      • Arbex 與 Suzano 合資 JV 上線,強化原物料與成本管理能力。
    • 風險:
      • 中國尿布業務受假訊息事件影響,雖已獲官方澄清但信心恢復需時,短期需求仍受壓抑。
      • 北美嬰兒用品因通路調整(特別是 club 渠道)及新品延後上市,短期市佔與成長承壓。
      • 運費與部分原物料成本上升,全年預估通膨壓力約 2.5 億美元,需持續透過生產力與價格管理對沖。
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Kenvue Q3 有機成長約 3%,OTC(如 Tylenol、Nicorette、Zyrtec)與個人護理(OGX、Rogaine)表現強勁。
    • 北美組織紙品市佔率季增 20 bps,連續兩季強勁表現。
    • 北美電商業務年增超過 20%。
    • 全球嬰兒與兒童護理(BCC)除 club 通路外市佔略有提升,高端尿布滲透率由 30% 提升至 85%。
    • 全年公司平均售價(pricing)年減約 70 bps,北美減 80 bps,全年預期價格持平。
  4. 財務預測
    • 維持 2026 年獨立 KC 財測指引,2027 年 EPS 較獨立 KC 水準中個位數百分比稀釋,2028 年回到中高個位數複合成長。
    • 全年預估通膨壓力約 2.5 億美元,Q2 影響 5,000 萬,後半年約 2 億,主要來自運費。
    • 2027 年將於 2 月提供更完整財務預測,資本支出(CapEx)與毛利率預估未於本次會議明確揭露。
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 近期成本壓力與中國業務挑戰下,維持 2026 指引的信心來源?2027 年協同效益與成長動能如何?
      A: 短期專注無縫整合與基本面執行,Kenvue 品牌動能改善,KC 品牌受社群事件影響但正積極修復。2027 年聚焦協同效益落地、核心業務強化與未來成長投資,維持長期成長信心。
    • Q: 北美業務近期市佔與價格表現較弱,後續展望?
      A: 北美基礎業務健康,Q3 受庫存調整、新品延後與 club 通路變動影響,預期執行力與創新產品將帶動改善,全年價格預期持平。
    • Q: Kenvue 品牌整合後的成長機會與品牌建設策略?
      A: Kenvue 品牌 Q3 有機成長 3%,OTC 與個人護理動能佳,品牌建設與 KC 策略高度一致,將聚焦執行力提升與品類組合優化,長期看好國際擴張與品類滲透。
    • Q: 2027 年 EPS 稀釋幅度與攤銷政策說明?
      A: 2027 年 EPS 較獨立 KC 水準中個位數百分比稀釋,2028 年回到成長軌道。非 GAAP 指標將保留攤銷費用,與 Kenvue 過去政策不同。
    • Q: 中國與美國尿布業務現況與競爭策略?
      A: 中國尿布已獲官方澄清安全,需求穩定但復甦需時,將持續強化透明度與品牌信任。美國高端化策略奏效,club 通路外市佔提升,創新產品與價值主張為核心競爭力。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, and welcome to the Kimberly-Clark third-quarter 2026 earnings call. Participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. I will now hand the floor over to Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark. Chris, please go ahead.

    早安,歡迎參加金佰利(Kimberly-Clark)2026 年第三季財報電話會議。與會者目前已被設定為僅收聽模式。接下來我將把會議交給金佰利投資人關係副總裁 Chris Jakubik。Chris,請開始。

  • Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thank you and good morning, everyone. I would like to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC.

    謝謝,大家早安。我想提醒各位,今天的發言中我們將做出一些前瞻性陳述,這些陳述是基於我們目前對情勢的看法。實際結果可能因風險與不確定性而有所不同,相關內容已在我們的財報新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提交的文件中討論。

  • We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com.

    在本次說明中,我們也會討論一些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。這些非 GAAP 財務衡量指標不應被視為 GAAP 結果的替代,並應與 GAAP 結果一併閱讀。您可在我們的財報新聞稿以及發布於 investor.kimberly-clark.com 的補充資料中,找到 GAAP 與非 GAAP 的調節表。

  • With that, I'll turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

    接下來,我把時間交給 Mike 做幾點開場說明。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • All right. Thank you, Chris. And thank you, everyone, for joining us. Well, this week marks a new chapter for Kimberly-Clark. We officially completed our acquisition of Kenvue, a defining moment in our 154-year history. We're delighted to welcome the talented Kenvue team. The closure of this transaction marks a major milestone in our Powering Care transformation, a year of rigorous integration planning, and the starting point for an exciting future defined by extraordinary care.

    好的。謝謝你,Chris。也謝謝各位今天加入我們。本週對金佰利而言象徵著新篇章。我們已正式完成對 Kenvue 的收購,這是我們 154 年歷史中的關鍵時刻。我們很高興歡迎才華洋溢的 Kenvue 團隊加入。本交易完成代表我們「Powering Care」轉型的重要里程碑、歷經一年的嚴謹整合規劃,也是一個令人振奮的未來起點——以卓越照護為核心。

  • We have created a portfolio and set of capabilities uniquely positioned at the intersection of fast-moving consumer goods and healthcare. Our companies share a rich heritage. We've pioneered entire categories providing everyday essentials that serve billions of people around the world. Consumers have been loyal to our brands for generations because they trust us to provide better care for them and their loved ones.

    我們打造出一個產品組合與一套能力,獨特地位於快速消費品與醫療保健的交會點。兩家公司共享深厚的傳承。我們開創了多個品類,提供日常必需品,服務全球數十億人。消費者世代忠誠於我們的品牌,因為他們信任我們能為他們與所愛之人提供更好的照護。

  • We form deep, lifelong bonds with consumers and translate that intimate relationship into significant lifetime value. And now, we have a generational opportunity to do even more.

    我們與消費者建立深厚且長久的連結,並將這種親密關係轉化為顯著的終身價值。而現在,我們迎來一個世代難得的機會,能做得更多。

  • Everyday health is becoming more personal, more proactive, and more essential. With the addition of the Kenvue brands, we will be there for more people in more places and across more everyday health needs. That is the aspiration that guides our new company. Better care in more hands to enable smarter health.

    日常健康正變得更個人化、更主動,也更不可或缺。隨著 Kenvue 品牌的加入,我們將在更多地方、為更多人、涵蓋更多日常健康需求提供服務。這正是引領我們新公司的願景。讓更好的照護觸及更多人之手,促成更聰明的健康。

  • From baby care to women's health to active aging, consumers require and deserve a higher standard of care. And we will meet that moment, with exceptional science-backed innovation and best-in-class execution that continues to raise the standard. We're energized and we're ready. We work to strengthen our base business, enhance our capabilities, and build our combined team.

    從嬰兒照護到女性健康再到活躍老化,消費者需要且值得更高標準的照護。我們將以卓越、以科學為後盾的創新,以及同級最佳的執行力來迎接這個時刻,持續拉高標準。我們充滿動能,也已準備就緒。我們致力於強化基礎業務、提升能力,並打造我們的整合團隊。

  • And now, our team is heads down focused on execution. Near term, we will enhance performance, efficiency and effectiveness by applying our proven operating model. We'll reinvest in our brands to ensure we're delivering superior brand propositions across the value spectrum. Medium term, we will benefit from category and geographic expansion. And longer-term, we will capture secular growth tailwinds.

    而現在,我們的團隊正全力以赴、專注於執行。短期內,我們將運用已驗證的營運模式,提升績效、效率與效能。我們將再投資於品牌,確保在各價值帶上都能提供更優越的品牌主張。中期而言,我們將受惠於品類與地理版圖的擴張。長期而言,我們將掌握結構性成長的順風。

  • Our teams have worked hard to map out our integration, and we've implemented the leadership team and operating model for the new company, executed critical day one priorities and sequenced multi-year systems and process integration roadmaps. We've got a running start and our priorities are clear. We will execute with excellence, deliver against our synergy commitments, strengthen our core brands and businesses and seed growth.

    我們的團隊已努力擘劃整合工作,並為新公司建立領導團隊與營運模式,完成關鍵的 Day 1 優先事項,並排定多年期的系統與流程整合路線圖。我們已經有了良好起跑,且優先事項非常清楚。我們將以卓越執行,兌現協同效益承諾,強化核心品牌與業務,並播種成長。

  • Now to deliver the value of the combination, we have a clear three-phase plan: Ready, Set, and Grow.

    為了實現合併的價值,我們有一個清晰的三階段計畫:Ready、Set、Grow。

  • Ready covers the first 100 days when we will set the tone for the new company, and in this first phase, we'll ensure seamless operations and deliver quick wins on synergies. I'm confident that our shared commitment to care and strong execution will enable us to deliver generational value for consumers, customers, and shareholders.

    Ready 涵蓋前 100 天,我們將為新公司定下基調;在第一階段,我們會確保營運無縫銜接,並在協同效益上取得快速成果。我相信,我們共同對照護的承諾與強勁的執行力,將使我們能為消費者、客戶與股東創造世代價值。

  • Now, looking at the third quarter, we delivered solid results driven by our durable operating model, which overcame challenging one-off headwinds. The underlying health of our base business remains strong, and we have sustained momentum. North America continued to show strength in tissue and share gains in KC Professional, and we are driving performance in personal care.

    回到第三季,我們交出穩健的成績,主要受惠於我們具韌性的營運模式,成功克服具挑戰性的單次性逆風。我們基礎業務的內在健康度依然強勁,動能也持續。北美在紙品業務持續展現強勢,KC Professional 的市占也有所提升,而我們也正在推動個人照護的表現。

  • We also delivered across our international personal care focused markets, including South Korea, Brazil, and Indonesia. And as we move into the fourth quarter, we're focused on applying our playbook across the combined company and our durable Powering Care growth engine will continue to power and strengthen our performance. We're confident in our ability to drive sustainable growth in 2027 and beyond.

    我們在國際個人照護重點市場也有良好表現,包括南韓、巴西與印尼。隨著進入第四季,我們專注於將我們的作戰手冊應用到整個合併後公司;我們具韌性的 Powering Care 成長引擎將持續驅動並強化我們的表現。我們對於在 2027 年及其後推動可持續成長的能力充滿信心。

  • I want to thank the teams who have made our transformation possible and executed this acquisition with such dedication and focus. We're excited for this new beginning and the future we're building. Kimberly-Clark is a new kind of health and wellness company and extraordinary starts today.

    我要感謝讓我們轉型成為可能、並以高度投入與專注完成這次收購的各個團隊。我們對這個全新開始以及正在打造的未來感到振奮。金佰利是一種全新的健康與福祉公司,而「卓越」從今天開始。

  • So with that, I'd like to open the line for questions.

    那麼,接下來我想開放提問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Dara Mohsenian, Morgan Stanley.

    (接線員指示)Dara Mohsenian,摩根士丹利。

  • Dara Mohsenian - Equity Analyst

    Dara Mohsenian - Equity Analyst

  • Hey, good morning. (multiple speakers) How are you?

    嗨,早安。(多位講者)你好嗎?

  • So we've had some pressure points that have cropped up more recently, cost pressures, even with oil coming back down in the last couple of days here, you've been dealing with the China issue, just the maintained fiscal '26 guidance. Just wanted to get a sense of what drives confidence there, and maybe some of the key assumptions driving the underlying Q4 delivery.

    所以最近出現了一些壓力點:成本壓力——即使這幾天油價回落——你們也一直在處理中國的問題,而且仍維持 2026 財年的財測指引。我想了解一下你們信心的來源是什麼,以及支撐第四季表現交付的一些關鍵假設。

  • And then for '27, the opposite question, which is you've laid out adjusted earnings solution not expected to be more than mid-single-digit dilutive versus stand-alone KC, but you've got potential synergies that could be pretty robust. There's a couple of one-time items from '26 like the fire, the China issue that could get better, so one could be more optimistic. So it'd just be helpful to hear some of the puts and takes for '27 now that the deal is officially closed, particularly synergies and reinvestment needs and any of the other key factors you would call out for next year.

    另外,對 2027 年我想問相反的問題:你們提出合併後調整後盈餘的影響,預期相較於金佰利單獨情境不會稀釋超過中個位數百分比,但你們也有可能相當可觀的協同效益。而且 2026 年有幾個一次性項目,例如火災、中國問題,未來可能改善,因此也可能更樂觀。因此,在交易正式完成後,想請你們談談目前對 2027 年的利弊權衡,特別是協同效益、再投資需求,以及你們認為明年還有哪些其他關鍵因素。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay, Dara, maybe I'll start and I'll ask Nelson to chime in. But I just kind of want to give you some overall perspective on how we're thinking about the balance of this year and then a little bit into '27. But I will tell you the overall is we feel great about where we are and what our plans are shaping up to be.

    好的,Dara,也許我先回答,然後請 Nelson 補充。不過我想先給你一些整體觀點,說明我們如何看待今年剩餘時間,以及延伸到 2027 年的一些想法。但我可以告訴你,整體而言,我們對目前的位置以及計畫的成形方向感到非常好。

  • In the near term, we're very focused on executing and building sustainable momentum. And part one for me, the priority is we're going to focus on executing the integration seamlessly.

    短期內,我們非常專注於執行並建立可持續的動能。對我而言第一優先是:我們將專注於無縫執行整合。

  • As I told the organization in multiple town halls, and my perspective is I want the integration to be boring for the organization and also for our customers. And that means is, in a pragmatic way, it's exciting that we're coming together, but we want to be able to operate. And our euphemisms internally, we say, hey, we want to be able to ship products, pay suppliers, and pay people. And so that's kind of the paradigm that we're operating in, we're very focused on the fundamentals.

    正如我在多場員工大會上對組織所說,我的觀點是:我希望整合對組織而言是「無聊的」,對我們的客戶而言也是如此。這代表以務實的方式來說,雖然我們走到一起令人振奮,但我們希望能夠穩定運作。我們內部的說法是:嘿,我們要能出貨、付供應商款、也要付薪給員工。因此這就是我們運作的典範——我們非常專注於基本功。

  • I will tell you, as of Monday, we implemented the new organization structure and the new operating model, and that's off to a great start. There's definitely lots of work ahead because obviously, as we come through the coming weeks, especially into 2027, we'll be making some staffing changes, system and reporting changes. But that's all going to be very well sequenced. And we feel great about that.

    我可以告訴你,截至週一,我們已經實施了新的組織架構與新的營運模式,而且開局非常順利。接下來肯定還有很多工作要做,因為很明顯,隨著未來幾週的推進,特別是進入 2027 年,我們將進行一些人員配置調整、系統與報告變更。但這一切都會非常有節奏地依序推進。我們對此感到非常振奮。

  • And so, I mentioned this like three stages of how we're thinking about integration Ready. That's really about flawless execution through the first 100 days. Set is really about 2027, which is making sure we're establishing a sound foundation for growth. And then Grow is unlocking the full potential of the company. So I think that's kind of how we're thinking about the integration.

    因此,我提到我們對整合的思考大概分成三個階段:Ready。這主要是關於在前 100 天做到零失誤的執行。Set 主要是關於 2027 年,確保我們建立起穩健的成長基礎。然後 Grow 則是釋放公司全部的潛力。所以我想,這就是我們看待整合的方式。

  • I think part two is the second big priority for me and my leadership team is we're focused on improving the momentum of KenVu and KC brands, right. I will tell you, self-care and essential care performance was solid in the quarter. You guys probably already saw that. It was up three organically.

    我想第二部分,也就是我和我的領導團隊的第二個重大優先事項,是專注於提升 KenVu 與 KC 品牌的動能,對吧。我可以告訴你,本季自我照護與基本照護的表現很穩健。你們可能已經看到了。有機成長上升了 3%。

  • And we take a look at a detailed by category, by time period scorecard of the Kenvue brands every month in our monthly trading updates up until we closed. And I would say for a scorecard that looked 100% red this time last year, Nelson, I think you would agree, I think when we had our view last Thursday, it was 70% green. And so, I think the Kenvue business is turning and turning pretty well.

    在我們完成交割之前,我們每個月都會在月度交易更新中,按品類、按期間查看 Kenvue 品牌的詳細記分卡。我會說,Nelson,對於一份在去年此時看起來 100% 都是紅燈的記分卡,我想你會同意,上週四我們看的時候,已經有 70% 變成綠燈了。因此,我認為 Kenvue 的業務正在扭轉,而且扭轉得相當不錯。

  • But the other areas where we got to get improvement is some on the KC brands. And as you're well aware, Dara, that we had this social media crisis that was proven to be false, based on false information, but it did impact our business pretty significantly. And so, I think it's going to take us time to work it back. We're very confident we'll bring the business back and ultimately regain our market leadership position. But it's going to take a little time to rebuild that.

    但我們還需要改善的其他領域,是 KC 品牌的一些部分。而且如你非常清楚的,Dara,我們遭遇了一場社群媒體危機,事後證明是假的、基於錯誤資訊,但它確實對我們的業務造成了相當顯著的影響。因此,我認為我們需要一些時間把它修復回來。我們非常有信心能把業務帶回來,並最終重新奪回市場領導地位。但重建需要一點時間。

  • And then the last area is we're looking for improved performance in North American skin care, North American oral care, and then a little bit on the KC side, the personal care, we'd like to improve our execution in pockets, including in North America.

    最後一個領域是,我們希望北美護膚、北美口腔護理的表現能有所提升;另外在 KC 這邊,個人護理方面,我們也希望在一些區塊提升執行力,包括在北美。

  • So again, I think that's the overall where the first couple of priorities are. Maybe the thing I'll click on underlying all that is we're going to stay very balanced and focused on creating shareholder value over the long-term. And that means, as you might expect from us, we're not really going to sacrifice long-term value to manage to a short-term number. We want to make sure we can invest in the brands.

    所以再說一次,我認為這就是前幾個優先事項的整體方向。也許我想強調的底層原則是:我們會保持非常平衡,並專注於長期創造股東價值。這意味著,如你們所預期的,我們不會為了管理短期數字而犧牲長期價值。我們希望確保能夠投資於品牌。

  • The China diapers is a case in point. The business has taken a hit, but we're going to continue to invest through the cycle to make sure that we rebuild that business back to it. And so ultimately, we're a flywheel growth company, and that means we want to be able to invest in our brands to drive growth, and that will create a virtuous cycle of growth, and so that's where our focus is.

    中國尿布就是一個很好的例子。這項業務受到衝擊,但我們會在景氣循環中持續投資,確保把這項業務重建回來。因此,最終我們是一家飛輪式成長公司,這意味著我們希望能投資於品牌以推動成長,並形成正向的成長循環;這就是我們的重點。

  • But I think Nelson maybe will give you maybe some of the additional details.

    不過我想 Nelson 也許會給你一些額外的細節。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Just to come back a little bit, Dara, a few things, as Mike said, we feel pretty good about where we stand today. And more importantly, we're taking a very disciplined approach to the first year of the combined company to ensure that we have sustainable profitable growth in the mid- and long-term.

    回到你的問題,Dara,補充幾點:如 Mike 所說,我們對目前的狀況感覺相當不錯。更重要的是,我們對合併後公司第一年的推進採取非常嚴謹的做法,以確保在中長期能有可持續的獲利成長。

  • As a starting point, I mean, we're on track or ahead across the key deal metrics that we laid out a year ago, including closing of the transaction, the synergy pacing, the cost of capital and the operating momentum across our legacy stand-alone Kimberly-Clark business Kenvue, our new categories and Arbex, which went live July 1 of this year with our joint venture partner, Suzano.

    作為起點,我的意思是,我們在一年前提出的關鍵交易指標上,不是按計畫推進就是超前,包括交易完成、協同效益的實現節奏、資本成本,以及我們既有獨立運作的 Kimberly-Clark 業務、Kenvue、新品類與 Arbex 的營運動能;Arbex 已於今年 7 月 1 日與我們的合資夥伴 Suzano 一起正式上線。

  • I think it's perspective as we head into the balance of the year and 2027, our first full year as a combined company. For a transformation of this magnitude, I mean, we remain on track on both earnings accretion. And importantly, approximately getting to about a two times leverage by the end of the second year of the transaction. Now going into your question on 2026 and then next year.

    我想在我們邁向今年剩餘時間以及 2027 年(也就是合併後公司第一個完整年度)之際,提供一些觀點。以如此規模的轉型而言,我們在獲利增厚(earnings accretion)方面仍按計畫推進。而且很重要的是,我們預期在交易完成後第二年年底,槓桿比率大約降至 2 倍左右。現在回到你關於 2026 年以及明年的問題。

  • First, our outlook, and that's again standalone Kimberly-Clark, reflects stronger underlying business momentum that the headline third-quarter results suggest, along with a strong global commercial agenda for the fourth quarter that's underway.

    首先,我們的展望——同樣是以獨立的 Kimberly-Clark 來看——反映出比第三季表面結果所呈現的更強勁的基本面動能,同時第四季也有一項強而有力、正在推進中的全球商業議程。

  • We also expect to benefit from incremental cost-mitigating actions that were taken in the third quarter. This includes all the elements within our integrated margin management toolkit, including revenue growth management, productivity, and other measures that the team has already activated. And the other bit to take into account is that we have an easier comp in the fourth quarter, particularly for our North America business, which as you might remember had a lower growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

    我們也預期將受益於第三季採取的額外成本緩解措施。這包括我們整合式利潤管理工具箱中的所有要素,包括營收成長管理(RGM)、生產力提升,以及團隊已經啟動的其他措施。另外還要考量的是,第四季的比較基期更容易,特別是北美業務;如你可能記得,去年第四季北美成長較低。

  • And then the other bit, as Mike mentioned, is we will remain pretty disciplined in the balance of the year, that is in the next two months. And we're reserving the flexibility to pursue value-creating investments that can accelerate our longer-term agenda if attractive opportunities emerge between now and the end of the year.

    另外一點,如 Mike 提到的,我們在今年剩餘時間——也就是接下來兩個月——仍會保持相當嚴謹的紀律。同時,我們會保留彈性,以便在年底前若出現具吸引力的機會,能夠進行創造價值的投資,加速我們的長期議程。

  • Now looking into next year, three things that we're focused on.

    接著看明年,我們聚焦三件事。

  • First, delivering the deal synergies. Second, strengthening the core of the two businesses. And then third, seeding future growth. As it relates to deal synergies, we are on track with our synergy plans and the actions that Kenvue took at the beginning of this year actually position us well to have a strong start as we get the two companies operating on a combined basis now.

    第一,實現交易協同效益。第二,強化兩項業務的核心基本盤。第三,為未來成長播種。就協同效益而言,我們的協同計畫與相關行動都按計畫推進,而 Kenvue 在今年年初採取的行動,實際上也讓我們在兩家公司現在以合併基礎運作時,能夠有一個強勁的起步。

  • The other bid is on strengthening the core of the businesses. We continue to expect a gradual return towards a category level growth, particularly in the new categories that have come into the business. And this will be supported by increased investments in marketing, innovation, and R&D.

    另一部分是強化業務核心。我們仍預期會逐步回到接近品類層級的成長,特別是在納入公司版圖的新類別上。這將由增加在行銷、創新與研發上的投資來支持。

  • Same time, we'll be sharpening the portfolio and improving execution. And this will include SKU rationalization, increased service levels improvements, all of which can create some near-term impacts as we position the business for healthier mid- and long-term growth.

    同時,我們也會精簡產品組合並改善執行。這將包括 SKU 精簡、提升服務水準等改善措施;當我們為更健康的中長期成長定位業務時,這些措施可能會在短期內帶來一些影響。

  • And then lastly, on seeding our future growth. We are also making targeted upfront investments behind our biggest categories and the opportunities we see, recognizing that the financial contribution will build over time.

    最後,關於為未來成長播種。我們也正在針對我們最大的品類與所看到的機會,進行有針對性的前期投資,同時也認知到財務貢獻會隨時間逐步累積。

  • So overall, Dara, we feel pretty good about where we stand today and we remain on track against the assumptions we established a year ago, and we'll preserve flexibility to invest appropriately behind the business over the next few months and in 2027.

    總體而言,Dara,我們對目前的狀況感覺相當不錯,也仍按一年前建立的假設在推進;並且在接下來幾個月以及 2027 年,我們會保留彈性,適度地對業務進行投資。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • (multiple speakers) Mike, I feel like we hit you with the fire hose.

    (多位講者)Mike,我覺得我們像用消防水管一樣把資訊一股腦灌給你了。

  • Dara Mohsenian - Equity Analyst

    Dara Mohsenian - Equity Analyst

  • Very comprehensive.

    非常全面。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Grom, UBS.

    Peter Grom,瑞銀(UBS)。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well.

    很好。謝謝你。各位早安。希望大家都一切順利。

  • So I wanted to just ask about North America. I know there are a lot of moving pieces here, but we'd love to get your perspective just on the health of the business, given weaker share performance the last couple of quarters and pricing lower. So just any perspective there and how you see that evolving as we move forward? Thanks.

    我想請教一下北美的情況。我知道這裡有很多變動因素,但鑑於過去幾季市占表現較弱、定價也較低,我們很想聽聽你們對業務健康狀況的看法。所以想請你們分享一些觀點,以及你們如何看待未來的演變?謝謝。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, thanks, Peter. I will tell you, I'm confident in the underlying health of the North America business on the KC side. Well, actually, both sides, I think, but I think that question was more directed on the KC side.

    好的,謝謝你,Peter。我可以告訴你,我對北美業務在 KC 這一端的基本面健康狀況很有信心。其實兩端我都覺得不錯,但我想你的問題比較是針對 KC 這一端。

  • The underlying health of the KC side of the business is solid. It was a soft quarter. Definitely, Peter, impacted by a few key discrete impacts. The largest, I think, which is, again, retailer inventory changes, which for us in the quarter was about 130 basis points headwind. We did postpone a major new product launch, and again, that's maybe an executional issue within the house. We had a new manufacturing asset to produce the new product out, and it wasn't putting out the quality that we wanted. And so, we pulled it back, and we'll be launching it likely early next year. And so, that was probably the second big one.

    KC 這一端業務的基本面很穩健。這一季偏軟。確實,Peter,受到幾個關鍵且獨立因素的影響。我認為最大的一項仍是零售商庫存調整,對我們本季約造成 130 個基點的逆風。我們也延後了一項重要的新產品上市,這可能是公司內部在執行上的問題。我們有一項新的製造資產用來生產該新產品,但產出的品質未達我們的要求。因此我們先把它拉回來,預計可能在明年初推出。所以這大概是第二個主要因素。

  • And then there is some share of softness, primarily due to club distribution changes in baby care, which I think you guys are all well aware of. And so, those were a few of the big impacts.

    另外還有一些市占疲弱,主要是因為嬰兒護理在量販通路(club)上的配銷變動,我想各位都很清楚。以上就是幾個主要影響因素。

  • I do expect overall in North America, our execution to improve. I'm really confident in the innovation pipeline. I think the brand investments that we have and the commercial capabilities, as you guys all are well aware, we have a great customer organization. Our e-commerce business is growing double-digits, I think north of 20%.

    我確實預期我們在北美的整體執行會改善。我對創新產品的管線非常有信心。我認為我們的品牌投資與商業能力也很到位,各位也都知道,我們有很強的客戶團隊。我們的電商業務維持雙位數成長,我想超過 20%。

  • And then the other area, Peter, is tissue is performing very strongly, both on the consumer side and on the professional side, and we feel great about the performance there.

    另外一個領域,Peter,是紙品(tissue)表現非常強勁,不論是消費端或專業端,我們對那邊的表現感到非常振奮。

  • So overall for the year, I know you probably want to talk a little bit about promotions, but I think we expect our pricing overall for the year to be about relatively flat. And so again, while I think it's maybe two quarters or a little softer than what we're used to, we do expect to improve our performance in North America.

    所以就全年而言,我知道你可能也想談談促銷,但我認為我們預期全年整體定價大致持平。因此,再次強調,雖然可能有兩季或稍微比我們習慣的更疲弱一些,但我們確實預期北美的表現會改善。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And just to add a couple of numbers, Peter, for you. One, keep in mind that the club distribution and diapers and training pants, it's about a point of headwind in the quarter for North America.

    再補充幾個數字給你參考,Peter。第一,請記得量販通路在尿布與學習褲(training pants)的配銷變動,對北美本季約帶來 1 個百分點的逆風。

  • And then also to reiterate what Mike was saying, in tissue, we gained overall 20 basis points share on a weighted basis in the quarter and that's on the heels of two straight quarters of continued strong performance. The underlying health of the business in North America is strong, and again, we've got strong activations and innovations in the pipeline, which will continue into next year.

    另外也重申 Mike 剛才說的,在紙品方面,我們本季以加權基礎計算的整體市占提升了 20 個基點,而且這是在連續兩季持續強勁表現之後。北美業務的基本面健康狀況很強勁;同樣地,我們在管線中也有強而有力的市場推動(activations)與創新,會延續到明年。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

    很好。非常感謝。我把時間交給下一位。

  • Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • And just add one point there. I think as you're tracking it, Peter, I think you mentioned the patterns on pricing. As you look at it, year to date, total company pricing is down about 70 basis points. 80 basis points in North America, and that's having lapped our least intense quarter of programming last year. If you recall, we shifted some programming from Q3 to Q4 last year.

    我再補充一點。Peter,我想你在追蹤時提到定價的走勢。截至目前為止,全集團定價約下滑 70 個基點。北美下滑 80 個基點,而這是在去年我們促銷/方案(programming)強度最低的一季之後所形成的比較基期。如果你還記得,我們去年把部分方案從第三季移到第四季。

  • So Q3 least intense, period. And we're about to lap our most intense prior year period of programming in Q4. So as Mike said, when you think about the year, we'll probably land with pricing relatively flat. So you get on a sequential basis a little bit of a pickup in terms of what that pricing profile looks like.

    所以第三季是強度最低的期間。而我們即將在第四季對比去年方案強度最高的期間。正如 Mike 所說,從全年來看,我們的定價大概會落在相對持平。因此以季對季的角度,你會看到定價輪廓有一些回升。

  • Peter Grom - Analyst

    Peter Grom - Analyst

  • That's super helpful, guys. Thanks so much.

    這非常有幫助,各位。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lavery, Piper Sandler.

    Michael Lavery,Piper Sandler。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • I just want to come back to Kenvue, your excitement over the deal is clear, and just want to see if you can help us understand a little bit better how to think about some of the brand's health momentum. Obviously been a little quieter since the deal was announced, but you guys have been working with them closely. Can you just maybe give us a sense of maybe, first of all, some of if or how their brand building framework that they used, how it compares to yours, what similarities or differences there might be.

    我想回到 Kenvue。你們對這筆交易的興奮之情很明顯,我想看看你們是否能幫助我們更好地理解,該如何看待一些品牌健康度的動能。顯然自從交易宣布後,外界聽到的訊息比較少,但你們一直與他們密切合作。你們能否先談談他們所使用的品牌建設框架,與你們的相比如何?有哪些相似或不同之處?

  • And just how to think about the opportunity for the organic growth because I think some of the cost savings potential feels a bit more straightforward, but I know there's also a real focus on just building that top-line momentum. Can you help us understand how you see those building blocks there and maybe some of your take on the recent color from their side?

    另外,關於有機成長的機會該如何思考?我認為部分成本節省的潛力看起來比較直觀,但我知道也非常聚焦在建立營收端(top-line)的動能。你們能否幫助我們理解你們如何看待這些組成要素,以及你們對他們近期釋出的訊息有何看法?

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Yeah, okay, Michael, great question. I will tell you, I will give you a little color. Just recognize it's day three for me officially, so I'm going to try to give you a little more context for how the brands are doing.

    好的,Michael,這是個很好的問題。我可以提供一些補充說明。先提醒一下,對我來說正式上任才第三天,所以我會盡量提供更多背景,說明這些品牌目前的狀況。

  • I will tell you your overall question, and I think I said this a little bit earlier, a lot of the challenges that they've had over the past few years have been, in my mind, 100% executional, and I don't think I've found any that I perceive as being structural yet, right?

    我會說,針對你整體的問題,我想我稍早也提過,他們過去幾年的許多挑戰,在我看來 100% 是執行層面的問題;到目前為止,我還沒有發現任何我認為屬於結構性的問題,對吧?

  • But what I will say is I think Kirk and the leadership team at Kenvue did a phenomenal job pivoting when Kirk got in that chair. And I think this goes back to it, and this is where Kirk and I bonded because we were kind of trained by the same people. And so, we have a similar philosophy on how you support brands. And so, I think Kirk made a lot of big moves to strengthen the execution.

    但我要說的是,我認為 Kirk 以及 Kenvue 的領導團隊在 Kirk 坐上那個位置後,做了非常出色的轉向。我想這也回到一點:Kirk 和我之所以投緣,是因為我們某種程度上受過同一批人的訓練。因此,我們在如何支持品牌方面有相似的理念。所以我認為 Kirk 做了很多重大舉措來強化執行力。

  • One of the most important was at the beginning of January, he flipped the operating model, which matches almost exactly with ours, which is why we've been able to so seamlessly moved to the new org structure on Monday, first thing, and we're operating in the new model.

    其中最重要的一項是在一月初,他調整了營運模式,幾乎與我們的完全一致;這也是為什麼我們能在週一一早就非常順暢地切換到新的組織架構,並在新模式下運作。

  • I will tell you, I'm encouraged with Kenvue's Q3 performance. As you guys probably saw, organic was up about 3, and we're seeing some positive momentum. I think there is plenty moving in the right direction.

    我可以告訴你,我對 Kenvue 第三季的表現感到鼓舞。各位可能也看到,有機成長約 3%,我們也看到一些正向動能。我認為有很多事情正朝正確方向前進。

  • And maybe I'll note a few things, Michael. OTC overall I think is performing well in my book. Tylenol for the year, I think up somewhere between low to mid-single digit, I think, which is a great rebound. I think in the quarter, it was up about 70 bps of share. Also in OTC, Nicorette is up about 7% year-to-date, Zyrtec up 5% year-to-date, love the advertising they're doing to drive category expansion with Sanjay Bhattia.

    也許我再點出幾件事,Michael。在我看來,OTC(非處方藥)整體表現不錯。Tylenol 全年我記得成長約落在低到中個位數百分比,這是很好的反彈。我想本季市占也提升了約 70 個基點。同樣在 OTC,Nicorette 年初至今成長約 7%,Zyrtec 年初至今成長 5%;我也很喜歡他們與 Sanjay Bhattia 合作所做的廣告,用來推動品類擴張。

  • And then I would say overall hair, very good, Rogaine, surprisingly, I didn't know this, Michael, but it may be driven by some GLP-1 adoption, GLP-1 adoption, so Rogaine is up 30% year-to-date. OGX, the shampoo is also performing very well. And then in essential care, the baby brands are up about 5% year-to-date. Band-Aid, which is a great Halloween giveaway, is up 4% year-to-date.

    然後我會說整體來看,護髮表現非常好;Rogaine 的表現出乎意料,我之前不知道這點,Michael,但這可能是由某些 GLP-1 的採用所帶動,GLP-1 的採用,所以 Rogaine 年初至今上漲 30%。OGX 的洗髮精也表現非常好。然後在基本護理方面,嬰兒品牌年初至今約成長 5%。Band-Aid(這是很棒的萬聖節贈品)年初至今上漲 4%。

  • And so, I think there is plenty moving in the right direction. Again, what's driving it and this reflects maybe a personnel choice I made more recently. North America, it's clear, Carlos and I also have very similar training and he's very focused on the core aspects of execution, which DPSM is the shorthand, which is distribution, pricing, shelving and merchandising, and focusing on execution, which I think, Michael, had been a little bit off of the focus area for Kenvue in the past. And I think we are seeing really that kind of performance is really driven by better fundamental execution across all those levers.

    所以,我認為有很多事情正朝著正確方向推進。再說一次,是什麼在驅動它——這也反映了我最近做的一個人事選擇。北美方面很明顯,Carlos 和我也有非常相似的訓練背景,他非常聚焦在執行的核心要素上,我們用 DPSM 作為簡稱,也就是通路覆蓋、定價、貨架陳列與商品展示,並聚焦在執行上;我認為,Michael,過去 Kenvue 對這一塊的關注度有點不足。而我認為我們確實看到,這類表現主要是由在所有這些槓桿上更好的基本面執行所驅動。

  • I think we're not out of the woods yet. And so, the areas that we got to improve, I would say they're stabilizing, but there's plenty of work left to be done. Skin care was down just a little bit under a point year to date, and that's versus a category that's up about four. And again, I think the team has taken steps to improve execution there.

    我認為我們還沒有完全走出困境。所以,我們必須改善的領域,我會說正在趨於穩定,但仍有很多工作要做。護膚品年初至今下滑不到 1 個百分點,而同類別大約上升 4 個百分點。再者,我認為團隊已採取措施來改善那裡的執行。

  • I think medium term, and this is my perspective, and it still needs to be worked through the team, I think it's about resetting the assortment. I do think there's some extensions that we've done with some of the brands that will require a reset over time. And the other area for me, and Jon Halvorson knows this, and he's totally up to the task, and I was just with him, the agencies, a couple, we've got to improve the creative execution. And I'm looking, while in skin care, the marketing investment is fine and it's competitive with the category, I think there's room to increase our investment there.

    我認為中期來看,這是我的觀點,而且仍需要與團隊進一步推進,我覺得重點在於重新調整產品組合。我確實認為,我們在某些品牌上做的一些延伸,隨著時間推移將需要重新校準。另外一個對我而言的領域——Jon Halvorson 也知道這點,而且他完全能勝任;我剛和他在一起——就是代理商這塊,有幾家,我們必須提升創意執行。我在看的是:雖然在護膚品上,我們的行銷投資是足夠的、也與品類具競爭力,但我認為仍有空間增加我們在那裡的投資。

  • And then the other area is oral care. Listerine, year to date, down about two points. For me, this is my opinion, which is I think we need to simplify and clarify the offering and the key benefits for the consumer. Given the leadership share position that we have I mean, you know, very, very strong leadership position in the category for me It should be similar to what we've been doing with Kleenex, Depend and Poise which is focus advertising on expanding penetration frequency of the category. And so, that's kind of the you know the focus area for us.

    然後另一個領域是口腔護理。Listerine 年初至今下滑約 2 個百分點。對我而言,這是我的看法:我認為我們需要簡化並釐清產品提供內容,以及對消費者的關鍵利益點。考量到我們的領導市佔地位——我的意思是,我們在這個品類有非常、非常強的領導地位——對我來說,它應該類似於我們對 Kleenex、Depend 和 Poise 所做的,也就是把廣告聚焦在擴大品類的滲透率與使用頻次。所以,這大概就是我們的重點聚焦領域。

  • Beyond that, Michael, I would say longer-term, there's a lot more headroom in these categories than I originally thought when we made the initial announcement. It's going to take some time to get there. We're not going to take shortcuts. We will build through the fundamentals. And so, what you'll probably see in '27 is a little bit of a conservative approach that we reflected in our 2027, '28 outlook. We want to create the room to accelerate investments and get the brands in a better position to grow.

    除此之外,Michael,我會說從更長期來看,這些品類的成長空間比我在最初公告時所想的還要大得多。要達到那裡需要一些時間。我們不會走捷徑。我們會從基本功做起來建立。因此,你們可能會在 '27 年看到我們採取較為保守的做法,這也反映在我們對 2027、'28 年的展望中。我們希望創造空間,以加速投資,並讓品牌處於更好的位置來成長。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Oh really helpful. Thanks for that for the color.

    喔,這非常有幫助。謝謝你補充這些背景說明。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay and Chris tells me to tell you that we're going to share more CAGNY.

    好的,Chris 要我跟你說,我們會在 CAGNY 分享更多內容。

  • Michael Lavery - Analyst

    Michael Lavery - Analyst

  • Okay, sounds good all right.

    好的,聽起來不錯。好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Chris Carey, Wells Fargo.

    Chris Carey,富國銀行。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Hi, good morning, everybody. First, Mike just can you talk about the team's ability to deliver on this integration and synergies while continuing operational excellence on the legacy Kimberly-Clark business with a key leader leaving in Russ Torres and how you're backfilling and making sure that you don't miss a beat. That would be question number one. Just love some context on that.

    嗨,各位早安。首先,Mike,你能談談在 Russ Torres 這位關鍵領導離任的情況下,團隊在持續維持既有 Kimberly-Clark 業務的營運卓越之餘,交付這次整合與協同效益的能力嗎?以及你們如何補位、確保不會有任何節奏上的落差。這是第一個問題。希望能多給一些背景。

  • And then for Nelson, when you say mid-single-digit dilution for 2027, just to be clear about this, are earnings down mid-single digits in 2027, then snap back. That's my interpretation, which I think is what you're saying, but I'd just like to confirm that. And then within that, can you just talk about the treatment around amortization. going forward in the non-GAAP numbers and what's reflected in the outlook for 2027 and going into 2028? Thanks so much.

    然後給 Nelson:當你說 2027 年會有中個位數的稀釋時,為了確認清楚,這是否表示 2027 年的盈餘會中個位數下滑,然後再反彈?這是我的解讀,我想這也是你在說的,但我想確認一下。另外,在這之中,你能談談攤銷在未來非 GAAP 數字中的處理方式,以及在 2027 年展望與進入 2028 年的展望中反映了哪些內容嗎?

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. All right. Thanks for the question. Let me start with the team. Look, I feel great about our leadership team, and I think we're really well positioned to deliver generational value. You may know that I may have mentioned this before, but we did detail assessments on every leadership team member for both Kenvue and KC kind of going in as I selected the staff.

    好的。好。謝謝你的問題。我先從團隊談起。坦白說,我對我們的領導團隊感覺非常好,我認為我們處於非常有利的位置,可以交付世代性的價值。你可能知道——我之前可能提過——在我選擇這個團隊時,我們對 Kenvue 和 KC 的每一位領導團隊成員都做了詳細評估。

  • I think Nelson told me he spent seven hours being assessed. We took a very detailed approach, and we used outside experts to kind of help us do that. So I feel very good about the talent that we have in the room and the selections. Certainly, I guess I will say, first and foremost, I'm excited for Russ and his new adventure. And I think not knowing that much about that business, but I think they found a good one, right? And so, I'm excited for him.

    我想 Nelson 跟我說他花了七個小時接受評估。我們採取了非常細緻的方法,並且使用外部專家來協助我們完成。所以我對我們在這個房間裡的人才與這些選擇感到非常有信心。當然,我想我首先要說的是,我為 Russ 感到興奮,祝福他展開新的冒險。我對那個業務了解不多,但我想他們找到了一位很棒的人,對吧?所以,我為他感到高興。

  • I would tell you his departure probably reflects a change in timing for both of us. It should be clear to all of you that within KC, we're on a path of transition. But when we had the opportunity to create this, I would say, combination that would create generational value, I think the timing for me changed and the timing for Russ changed. And you're only going to have this time of your life once, right? And so, I'm excited for him.

    我會告訴你,他的離開大概反映了我們雙方在時間點上的改變。對各位來說應該很清楚,在 KC 內部,我們正走在轉型的路徑上。但當我們有機會促成這個——我會說——能創造世代性價值的結合時,我的時間點改變了,Russ 的時間點也改變了。而且你的人生只會有一次這樣的時刻,對吧?所以,我為他感到興奮。

  • I will tell you parenthetically, I love being more directly involved in all aspects of the business. I'm not sure the team enjoys that as much, but. It's more akin to what I'm used to doing. And so, I think hopefully that will have a positive impact. Let me tell you, the IMO is in great hands with Jeff Malucci, who put a lot of this deal together, steering the process, and then Nelson, who you would really want tracking and making sure that the teams are ensuring synergy delivery, which lines up with financial delivery anyways.

    順帶一提,我很喜歡能更直接參與業務的各個面向。我不確定團隊是否同樣那麼享受,但——這更接近我過去習慣的做法。所以,我希望這會帶來正面的影響。我也想告訴你,IMO 由 Jeff Malucci 掌舵,狀況非常好;他把這筆交易的很多部分整合起來、引導流程;然後還有 Nelson——你會很希望由他來追蹤並確保各團隊交付協同效益,而這本來就與財務交付一致。

  • The big note that I should point out is, we had transitioned about 60 days ago from an IMO-led implementation of the synergy delivery to a, I would say, ELT-led, right, so each of the ELT members or enterprise leadership team members, whether they're a business unit owner or a functional owner are accountable for delivery versus a group in the center. But Nelson's going to oversee that. So again, I feel very good about where we are at the team, and I feel great about the people we have on the team.

    我需要指出的一個重點是:大約 60 天前,我們已從由 IMO 主導的協同效益交付落地,轉為——我會說——由 ELT 主導;也就是每一位 ELT 成員或企業領導團隊成員,不論是事業單位負責人或職能負責人,都要對交付負責,而不是由中央的一個團隊負責。但 Nelson 會監督這件事。所以再說一次,我對我們團隊目前的狀況非常有信心,也對團隊裡的人感到非常滿意。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yeah, and then, Chris, go into your questions around the modeling and the outlook we gave when we announced the transaction. First, all comparisons are against KC standalone. That's the first bid. We will come out with pro formas and all that in more detail as we get into reporting actual results for full-year '26 and put that forth so that then we can start comparing that in that way.

    是的,然後,Chris,請進入你關於我們在宣布這筆交易時所提供的模型假設與展望的問題。首先,所有比較都是以 KC 單獨(standalone)為基準。這是第一個基準點。隨著我們開始在 2026 全年實際結果的揭露與報告,我們會提供更詳細的備考(pro forma)資料等,並把它呈現出來,這樣我們就能以那種方式開始進行比較。

  • So when we talked about mid-single-digit dilution and then snapping back, that's exactly it. So for 2027, that's what we would expect. But that is against a standalone Kimberly-Clark EPS. That would, of course, be reflective of the fact that we would have the amortization of the intangible assets. And go into that, the treatment around amortization is, as you remember, Kenvue was adjusting out their portion of amortization of these assets, we don't, It's not in our policy. Actually, will keep that within our non-GAAP metrics.

    所以當我們談到中個位數的稀釋,然後再回彈,正是這個意思。因此對 2027 年來說,這就是我們的預期。但那是相對於 Kimberly-Clark 單獨口徑的 EPS。當然,那會反映我們將會有無形資產攤銷的事實。再進一步說,關於攤銷的處理方式,如你所記得的,Kenvue 會把其所分攤的這些資產攤銷調整剔除,我們不會;這不在我們的政策之內。實際上,我們會把它保留在我們的非 GAAP 指標中。

  • So that's the element that's there for modeling purposes. And we have that reflected also in the latest performance that we filed as part of the recent debt issuance.

    所以這就是建模時需要納入的要素。而且我們也已在最近一次發債所提交的最新業績資料中反映了這一點。

  • Then as we step into 2028, what's going to happen is we expect to have a year that's on algorithm on a two-year compounded basis, which would be in the mid- to high-single-digit EPS growth on a compounded basis, two years versus the baseline of 2026 stand-alone KC.

    接著當我們進入 2028 年時,將會發生的是:我們預期在兩年複合基礎上,會回到符合我們演算法(algorithm)的年度表現;也就是說,以 2026 年 KC 單獨口徑為基準,兩年複合的 EPS 成長將落在中到高個位數。

  • Chris Carey - Analyst

    Chris Carey - Analyst

  • Okay. Thank you so much.

    好的。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Javier Escalante, Evercore.

    Javier Escalante,Evercore。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • Hello. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on completing the merger. I would like to double-click on diapers, if I may, both in the US and China. How is your diaper business performing outside club? What is the competitive dynamic overall? What we see in Circana is DTC Chinese diapers are leveling off and wonder whether that opens up an opportunity to restart a premiumization cycle after two years of promos.

    你好。各位早安,恭喜完成合併。如果可以的話,我想更深入聚焦在紙尿褲,涵蓋美國與中國兩個市場。你們在非會員制賣場(club)通路之外的紙尿褲業務表現如何?整體競爭態勢如何?我們在 Circana 看到中國 DTC 紙尿褲似乎趨於持平,想請問這是否為在經歷兩年的促銷後,重新啟動高端化(premiumization)循環帶來機會。

  • And number two, in China, I know that it's 11/11, social commerce is a big deal there. How are you using this to build trust? Any early reads on equity, how the messaging is landing. I know that you said that the recovery is going to take time, but anything -- tell us how you're dealing with this, and I have a follow-up, if I may.

    第二,在中國,我知道現在是 11/11,社交電商在那裡非常重要。你們如何運用這一點來建立信任?在品牌資產(equity)方面有沒有任何早期觀察,訊息傳遞的落地效果如何?我知道你們說復甦需要時間,但能否談談你們如何應對?如果可以的話,我還有一個追問。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. Thanks for the question, Javier. Great to hear from you. Look, I feel great about overall our diaper business. I know it's been a choppy couple of quarters, but when you -- I think when you take one of the best performing businesses we have in the world and chop it by 70%, it's going to affect the business.

    好的。謝謝你的問題,Javier。很高興聽到你的聲音。你看,我對我們整體的紙尿褲業務感覺非常好。我知道過去幾個季度有些顛簸,但當你——我認為當你把我們在全球表現最好的業務之一砍掉 70% 時,勢必會影響業務表現。

  • But I would say the underlying kind of strength of the products, I would say -- the performance relative to competition of the product, I think we feel great about, and then the innovation pipeline that we have. So we've got a proven strategy to elevate and expand the category to your point, right? And that's what we're going to continue driving. We know how to win in the most competitive markets in the world, especially China. And so, our playbook is to drive that innovation that grows categories, delivers superior value propositions across all value tiers.

    但我會說,產品本身的底層實力——我會說——產品相對於競品的表現,我們感覺非常好;再加上我們的創新管線。所以我們有一套經驗證的策略,能如你所說去提升並擴大品類。而這正是我們會持續推動的方向。我們知道如何在全球競爭最激烈的市場取勝,尤其是中國。因此,我們的作戰手冊就是推動能帶動品類成長的創新,在所有價值層級提供更優越的價值主張。

  • Our strategy internally is really have your best product at the lowest possible cost. And then when we do that creates the room to invest in building brand love and driving really compelling activation. I'll start with North America. I think I'd say we've seen solid performance in North America over the last few years. Gained share two years in a row leading up into this year despite increasingly intense, I would say, promotional environment. I think we feel like we have the best innovation agenda that we've had in a very long time.

    我們內部的策略其實就是:用盡可能低的成本做出最好的產品。當我們做到這點,就能創造空間去投資於建立品牌喜愛度,並推動真正有吸引力的行銷啟動(activation)。我先從北美談起。我想我們在北美過去幾年的表現相當穩健。在促銷環境日益激烈的情況下,我們在進入今年之前已連續兩年提升市佔。我認為我們擁有很長一段時間以來最強的創新議程。

  • To your point, I would say premiumization continues to create some tailwinds. Just for reference, I think when I joined the company, I think we were about 30% of our business overall was premium. Today, we're well over 85%. So I think what you articulated around driving premium mix through offerings that offer that better performance for consumers is the core of our strategy.

    如你所說,我會說高端化持續帶來一些順風。僅供參考,我加入公司時,我們整體業務中高端產品大約占 30%。今天,我們已遠超過 85%。所以我認為你所闡述的——透過能為消費者帶來更佳表現的產品供給來推動高端組合——正是我們策略的核心。

  • I think we have seen over the past few years the entry of some lower-priced diapers, a lot of it coming from China, our attitude is, well, we've been, we compete with 200 diaper brands in China, we've been beating them there and so we feel confident we can beat them here. And so, for us, our approach is, hey, let's make sure that our value propositions are sharp and that we continue to bring the innovation.

    我想在過去幾年,我們看到一些較低價的紙尿褲進入市場,其中很多來自中國;我們的態度是:嗯,我們在中國要跟 200 個紙尿褲品牌競爭,我們在那裡一直能打贏他們,所以我們有信心在這裡也能打贏。因此對我們而言,我們的方法是:嘿,確保我們的價值主張夠犀利,並且持續帶來創新。

  • And so, we have things like Huggies Skin Essentials 360 overnight. We're excited about one that will prevent diaper rash more specifically that we'll be launching in the first quarter. So we've got a lot of great news. I would say, as you point out in the US, the majority of our share decline in US baby care was driven by distribution changes in club, which we're working through.

    所以我們有像 Huggies Skin Essentials 360 overnight 這樣的產品。我們也對第一季將推出的一款能更具體預防尿布疹的產品感到興奮。所以我們有很多好消息。我會說,如你在美國所指出的,我們在美國嬰兒護理的市佔下滑,多數是由會員制賣場(club)通路的配銷變動所驅動,而我們正在處理中。

  • I would say if you look outside of it, Javier, overall across BCC or our baby and child care more broadly, our shares overall slightly up. And so, we feel good about where that is, but we're going to stay focused on executing our playbook.

    我會說,如果你把 club 之外的部分拉出來看,Javier,整體在 BCC(或更廣義的嬰幼兒照護)範圍內,我們的整體市佔是小幅上升的。因此我們對目前的狀況感覺不錯,但我們會持續專注於執行我們的作戰手冊。

  • I'll pivot to China. Just to give you all the context, the Chinese authorities refuted the false allegations that were, and they declared that Huggies were safe. And so, that was really important. SAMR, the authority that had jurisdiction there, confirmed the quality and safety of our products. And I will tell you, they were very complimentary of how our teams engaged with them through the whole discovery process.

    我轉到中國。先給大家一些背景,中國主管機關駁斥了那些不實指控,並宣告 Huggies 是安全的。所以那點非常重要。具有管轄權的主管機關 SAMR 確認了我們產品的品質與安全。我也要告訴你,他們對我們團隊在整個調查(discovery)過程中與其互動的方式給予高度肯定。

  • At this point, Javier, demand is stabilized. I'd say it's improved slightly. But recovery is going to take time because here's what I've learned, which is bad news goes viral and good news does not. And what that means is then we have to put the good news out ourselves. And that's going to take a little time. But again, as I told the team in Shanghai, if there's any team that knows how to do it, it's that team.

    目前為止,Javier,需求已經穩定下來。我會說略有改善。但復甦需要時間,因為我學到的一件事是:壞消息會病毒式傳播,好消息不會。這代表我們必須自己把好消息傳出去。而這需要一點時間。但同樣地,我跟上海團隊說過,如果有哪個團隊最知道怎麼做,就是那個團隊。

  • Again, we're focused on rebuilding consumer trust. We're elevating transparency directly with consumers. I think we have, I think, a glass box look into our production facilities for consumers to look at and then regular updates on they can see kind of the quality coming off the line. And so, I think we feel great about that innovation. And so, I think we it's probably no team I'm more confident in than our China team.

    同樣地,我們專注於重建消費者信任。我們正直接對消費者提升透明度。我想我們提供——我想——一種「玻璃盒」式的視角,讓消費者可以看到我們的生產設施,並且定期更新,讓他們能看到產線下來的品質狀況。所以我認為我們對這項創新感覺非常好。因此,我想沒有哪個團隊是我比我們中國團隊更有信心的。

  • And I think the long-term health of our China business, I'm excited about diapers specifically, but I'm also excited about how the China team, together with the Kenvue team, will build the Kenvue brands in China as well.

    而且我認為我們在中國業務的長期健康發展方面——我特別對尿布品類感到振奮——同時我也對中國團隊如何與 Kenvue 團隊一起在中國打造 Kenvue 品牌感到期待。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • This leak will pass; I guess. I interrupted you. Go ahead.

    這個漏音會過去的;我想。我打斷你了。你繼續。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • I was just going to say, you asked specifically on 11/11. I mean, that's upon us here, so the reality, how is. It's going to take some time. And 11/11 is already, if you were pipelining and creating everything, that already went through. So it's something that as the news came out, it was right upon us. And we still expect the business to be subdued in the fourth quarter because of where we're at and the timing of when the government came out with the results favorable to us.

    我只是想說,你特別問到了 11/11。我的意思是,這就在眼前了,所以現實情況是——這需要一些時間。而且 11/11 其實已經——如果你在做鋪貨、把所有東西都準備好——那都已經走完流程了。所以當消息出來時,時間點正好就在我們眼前。而且我們仍然預期第四季業務會比較低迷,因為我們所處的位置,以及政府公布對我們有利結果的時間點。

  • But again, we will take the time, we will make the right investments in order to make sure that Huggies gets back to its rightful place in China. And as a reminder, right before this, we were right around 20% leadership, number one gaining share for five years straight at about 200 basis points a year in our business in diapers in China. And we're absolutely focused in making sure that we regain that.

    但再次強調,我們會花時間、做出正確的投資,確保好奇(Huggies)在中國回到它應有的位置。提醒一下,就在這之前,我們在中國尿布業務的市占領先大約在 20% 左右,連續五年每年約提升 200 個基點、保持第一並持續擴大份額。我們絕對專注於確保把這些重新奪回來。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • Thank you, man. And in the spirit of my comment of making the merger boring, right? If you can help us, because there has been a lot of detail here, in a very simple narrative, how do you see the sequence of the synergy plan in 2027? So the way that I think of it in my head, perhaps, is how you preserve the low-hanging fruit in terms of driving the synergies, what are you going to be tackling in terms of cost, is it back-office costs? Back office tell us a little bit kind of like in a very simple way, this is what should be happening through 2027. And thank you very much.

    謝謝你,老兄。延續我剛才「讓併購變得無聊」的評論,對吧?如果你能幫我們——因為這裡細節很多——用一個非常簡單的敘事來說明,你如何看待到 2027 年協同計畫的推進順序?我腦中想的方式可能是:你如何保留那些最容易摘的果實來推動協同?你接下來要處理哪些成本?是後台成本嗎?後台——請用很簡單的方式跟我們說一下,到 2027 年應該會發生什麼。非常感謝。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Let me start with a higher level and then Nelson to add. But Chris wants me to make sure that I say, Javier, Maura CAGNY. But number one, I'll just say, here's how we're thinking about it. Again, I'm kind of a boring person, and so I don't like drama as we operate the business. And so. I think we have a very well thought out plan. I mean, we announced the leadership team back in April and then the next few levels several months ago and so the teams had plenty of time to think through this.

    我先從更高層次開始,然後再請 Nelson 補充。不過 Chris 要我務必說一下:Javier,Maura CAGNY。但首先,我就說,我們是這樣思考的。再次強調,我算是個很無聊的人,所以在經營業務時我不喜歡戲劇化。所以——我認為我們有一個非常周全的計畫。我的意思是,我們在 4 月就公布了領導團隊,接著幾個月前也公布了再往下幾個層級,所以團隊有充足時間把這些想清楚。

  • Maybe part one is there are going to be significant staffing changes and this is the unfortunate work of combining companies, but there are going to be staffing changes throughout 2027. And we feel very good about our plans there, and I think our teams are very familiar with what those are. And so, that's part one.

    也許第一部分是:會有相當多的人員編制調整,這是合併公司時不幸但必須做的工作;而且這些人員調整會一路持續到 2027 年。我們對相關計畫很有信心,我也認為團隊對具體內容非常熟悉。所以,這是第一部分。

  • Part two is, I think, maybe primarily on Nelson's teams, we're going to run separate systems for a while, and then we will gradually bring them in because KC happens to have very robust, the latest SAP S/4 ERP systems for both north America, and then a separate instance for the international business.

    第二部分是,我想主要在 Nelson 的團隊這邊,我們會先分開跑一段時間的系統,然後再逐步整合,因為 KC 在北美採用的是非常強健、最新的 SAP S/4 ERP 系統,國際業務則是另一個獨立的系統實例。

  • And so, we'll, over time, in a phased way, be bringing the Kenvue businesses onto those platforms as we bring the KC businesses forward on those.So in the meantime, I think it's on Nelson's team to kind of cobble together a reporting I guess they're using Power BI, Javier, to do that.

    因此,我們會隨時間以分階段的方式,將 Kenvue 的業務逐步導入那些平台,同時也把 KC 的業務往前推進到那些平台上。至於在此期間,我想 Nelson 的團隊需要先把報表拼接起來——我猜他們是用 Power BI,Javier,來做這件事。

  • But again, that'll give us I think the visibility we need to manage in the interim But I think we have a very planful approach to deliver the synergy not sure if Chris agrees with me saying this now. But I feel very good about where we are in the synergy plan, and you know sitting in my chair as you would expect that I would say, but I think we will beat the synergies that we've talked about publicly.

    但同樣地,這會讓我們在過渡期間擁有我認為所需的可視性來進行管理。不過我認為我們有一個非常有計畫的方法來交付協同——我不確定 Chris 是否同意我現在這樣說。但我對我們在協同計畫上的進展感到非常有信心;而且你知道,坐在我這個位置你會預期我會這麼說,但我認為我們會超越我們對外公開談到的協同目標。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And Javier, a few things. I mean, obviously, we've been and we've been providing updates over the last 12 months. We've been very diligent in our process of looking at the synergies through the IMO, the segments and the functions and getting ready for day one, which was earlier this week.

    Javier,補充幾點。很明顯地,我們在過去 12 個月一直在提供更新。我們透過 IMO、各事業部與各職能,非常嚴謹地檢視協同,並為第一天做好準備——也就是本週稍早。

  • And we, as I said earlier, I mean, we're on track with our plans. Again, the overall cost synergies for the deal are about $1.9 billion, and there's three sources that are very clear to us. One is the overheads optimization, G&A, that will drive about a third, and that is already incorporating, eliminating certain roles, which is part of having to do a transaction like this. It's leveraging spans and layers of controls across the organization.

    而且如我先前所說,我們的計畫進度都在軌道上。再次強調,這筆交易的整體成本協同約為 19 億美元,而我們非常清楚有三個來源。第一是管理費用最佳化(overheads optimization)、G&A,約貢獻三分之一;其中已經包含刪減某些職位,這也是做這類交易必須面對的一部分。同時也會在整個組織中運用更有效的管理幅度與層級(spans and layers of controls)。

  • And then there's a series of non-people costs, including systems, which we are progressively going to be tackling, it's starting now, and that's very clearly laid out.

    接著還有一系列非人力成本,包括系統等,我們將逐步著手處理——從現在就開始——而且這部分的規劃非常清楚。

  • The second bucket is in cost of goods sold, and that's going to be closer to 40% of the overall give or take, so between 30% to 40% of the synergies. And we have clear plans with Tamara and our organization around optimizing our distribution network and leveraging procurement capabilities to drive savings from starting now.

    第二個桶是銷貨成本(cost of goods sold),大約會接近整體的 40%(上下浮動),也就是協同中的 30% 到 40%。我們與 Tamara 以及我們的組織已經有明確計畫,將從現在開始透過最佳化配送網路、並運用採購能力來推動節省。

  • And then the third bucket is in sales and marketing and trade spend optimization. Very clear plans on that, obviously tackling duplication of roles, but also around leveraging media synergies and optimizing trade spend. So all of that is very carefully planned and it'll be orchestrated and executed, starting executing it now as we begin the first week of the merger of the two organizations.

    第三個桶是在銷售、行銷與通路費用(trade spend)最佳化。這方面也有非常清楚的計畫,當然會處理職能重複,但也會運用媒體協同並最佳化通路費用。所有這些都經過非常仔細的規劃,並將在我們開始兩個組織合併的第一週起就加以統籌與執行——也就是從現在開始執行。

  • We'll provide more details when we get to CAGNY, Javier. And obviously, one of the things that we've talked about earlier this year is we're encouraged by can you having taken a proactive approach at the end of the first quarter, getting some of these organizational changes underway, which accelerate some of those synergies into 2026 and give us a good head start as we go into next year.

    Javier,等我們到 CAGNY 時會提供更多細節。而且很明顯地,我們今年稍早談到的一點是:我們對 Kenvue 在第一季末採取更主動的作法感到鼓舞,提前啟動部分組織調整,這讓部分協同加速在 2026 年實現,也讓我們在進入明年時有一個很好的起跑優勢。

  • We'll provide an update of the cadence of how those savings will come through, but some of that has already been materialized this year.

    我們會更新這些節省將如何逐步反映的節奏(cadence),但其中一部分今年已經實現。

  • Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

    Javier Escalante - Equity Analyst

  • Awesome. Thank you so much.

    太棒了。非常感謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anna Lizzul, Bank of America.

    美國銀行(Bank of America)的 Anna Lizzul。

  • Anna Lizzul - Research Analyst

    Anna Lizzul - Research Analyst

  • Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for the question. I was wondering if you could elaborate specifically on your launch of Big Dreams diapers and where do you see this competing in the landscape? What are your aspirations for this brand specifically?

    嗨,早安。非常感謝讓我提問。我想請你更具體說明你們推出 Big Dreams 尿布的情況,以及你們認為它會在市場版圖中與誰競爭?你們對這個品牌具體的目標是什麼?

  • And then if I can ask a bigger picture question on cost, clearly freight, a bigger headwind. How should we think about that in terms of some of the heightened costs, but in light of the benefits you're also seeing from the Arbex joint venture on input costs?

    另外如果我可以問一個更宏觀的成本問題:顯然運費是一個更大的逆風。在成本上升的背景下,但同時你們也從 Arbex 合資企業在投入成本上看到一些好處,我們應該如何看待這兩者的影響?

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey, thanks for the question, Anna. Maybe just a comment, we're really excited about Big Dreams and that's something I think for those who may not have the context that we've launched with Amazon in partnership with Amazon. I think the team at Amazon is very excited about the product. I think we've put together a fantastic quality product that I think has with the attributes -- with our knowledge of the diaper category, we know what consumers are looking for.

    嘿,謝謝你的問題,Anna。先簡單評論一下,我們對 Big Dreams 真的非常興奮;我想對於可能不太了解背景的人,我們是與 Amazon 合作、並在 Amazon 平台上推出的。我認為 Amazon 的團隊對這個產品也非常興奮。我認為我們打造了一個品質非常出色的產品;憑藉我們對尿布品類的理解,我們知道消費者在尋找什麼樣的特性——

  • And I think the unique thing there, Anna, is we want to make sure we're offering a very strong value proposition, particularly, I would say, for, I would say, middle to lower income consumers.

    而且我認為那裡獨特之處,Anna,在於我們希望確保提供非常強而有力的價值主張,特別是我會說,針對中低收入消費者。

  • One thing that I'll emphasize is we saw maybe a few years ago, several years ago, maybe the prospects for what everybody calls this K-shaped scenario of an economy. And so, we're really, I would say, steeled or focused to be able to operate effectively in that kind of environment. And so for us, we've been emphasizing, hey, how do we bring the best of our innovation into more value-oriented offerings?

    我想強調的一點是,我們可能在幾年前、好幾年前就看到,大家所說的這種經濟「K 型」情境的前景。因此,我們確實可以說已經做好準備、並聚焦於能在那樣的環境中有效運作。所以對我們而言,我們一直在強調:我們要如何把我們最好的創新帶入更偏價值導向的產品供給?

  • And again, that's why we're looking to drive low cost in our production so that we can afford to do that. And so this is another example of that. Within the Huggies brand, we did something similar, bringing, I would say, our latest. Core technology on diapers and launching it into our value tier first on Snug & Dry in North America about 18 months ago.

    而且再次強調,這也是為什麼我們要致力於降低生產成本,讓我們有能力做到這一點。所以這又是一個例子。在 Huggies 品牌之內,我們做了類似的事情,把我會說我們最新的尿布核心技術,先在北美約 18 個月前於 Snug & Dry 的價值級距推出。

  • And so again, that's part of our strategy, which is to adapt to the, and win in the K-shaped environment. And so, we feel good about that. And then maybe I'll ask Nelson to comment on the inflation.

    所以再次強調,這是我們策略的一部分,也就是去適應並在 K 型環境中勝出。因此,我們對此感到很有信心。接著也許我會請 Nelson 來談談通膨。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Yes, Diana, in terms of costs and where we stand today, as we provided the update back in September at the Barclays conference, we now project the total full year gross inflationary impacts of around $250 million, of which $50 million was an impact in the second quarter. And then for the balance of the year in the second-half, we expected around $200 million of inflation.

    是的,Diana,就成本以及我們目前的狀況而言,如同我們在 9 月巴克萊(Barclays)會議上提供的更新,我們現在預估全年總毛通膨影響約為 2.5 億美元,其中 5,000 萬美元是在第二季的影響。而今年剩餘期間、也就是下半年,我們預期約有 2 億美元的通膨。

  • And this step above around 50 versus our prior update back in August, concurrent with our second quarter update in earnings, is largely driven by the spike that we saw in spot freight rates in North America. That number, again, remains the same. There's no change right now versus what we updated you all at the Barclays conference earlier in September.

    相較於我們在 8 月、並與第二季財報更新同時所提供的先前更新,這次大約多了 5,000 萬美元,主要是由於我們在北美看到即期運費(spot freight rates)飆升所致。那個數字再次強調仍然相同。目前相較於我們 9 月初在巴克萊會議上向各位更新的內容,沒有任何變化。

  • The teams are doing a great job through a combination of mitigating actions that have been undertaken, as I mentioned earlier in the call today. And that includes all elements of the integrated margin management toolkit, from revenue growth management to the very strong productivity that we're delivering year-to-date. We're at 6.1%, gross productivity, 5.8% for the third quarter. So those programs will continue. And obviously, the always on cost discipline around all the structures.

    團隊透過多項已採取的緩解措施做得非常好,正如我今天稍早在電話會議中提到的。這包括整合式利潤率管理工具組(integrated margin management toolkit)的所有要素,從營收成長管理到我們年初至今所交付的非常強勁的生產力提升。我們的毛生產力為 6.1%,第三季為 5.8%。因此這些計畫將會持續。當然,也包括對所有組織架構持續不斷的成本紀律。

  • As it relates to Arbex, I mean, we're very pleased with the stand-up of the joint venture, which went live July 1. The Arbex management team and Susano, our partner, and along with ourselves, we're very focused on unlocking strong value creation, which will entail very proactive measures around cost containment, cost management, and driving productivity, and we're taking full advantage of that already. So that's underway. We will be providing a full update on our view for 2027 when we get to that in February of next year.

    至於 Arbex,我是說,我們對合資企業的建置非常滿意,它已於 7 月 1 日正式上線。Arbex 管理團隊與我們的合作夥伴 Susano,以及我們自己,都非常專注於釋放強勁的價值創造,這將包含在成本抑制、成本管理與推動生產力方面非常積極的措施,而我們也已經充分加以運用。所以這已在進行中。我們將在明年 2 月談到時,提供我們對 2027 年展望的完整更新。

  • But again, we remain very disciplined in our approach to managing costs and managing over the term of the business to ensure that we deliver pricing at a cost at least neutral, which is our philosophy that's been in place for many years now.

    但再次強調,我們在成本管理上仍維持非常嚴謹的做法,並在業務期間內持續管理,以確保我們所實現的定價至少能在成本上達到中性(cost at least neutral),這是我們多年來一直秉持的理念。

  • Anna Lizzul - Research Analyst

    Anna Lizzul - Research Analyst

  • Great, very helpful. Thank you.

    很好,非常有幫助。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Robert Moskow, TD Cowen.

    Robert Moskow,TD Cowen。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Hey, thanks for the question. And maybe you're going to give more details at CAGNY. But the revenue synergy target was the one that struck a lot of people as the most ambitious. They are notoriously difficult to execute. And it seemed to involve a lot of international expansion of brands that had not traveled into these different regions in the past. So are your first impressions the same? Do you still see the same opportunity? And what are the first steps for enabling that, Mike? Maybe you could talk a little more on that.

    嗨,謝謝讓我提問。也許你們會在 CAGNY 提供更多細節。但營收協同效益(revenue synergy)的目標,是讓很多人覺得最具企圖心的一項。眾所周知,這類目標非常難以執行。而且看起來涉及許多品牌的國際擴張,而這些品牌過去並沒有進入過那些不同地區。所以你們的第一印象也一樣嗎?你們仍然看到同樣的機會嗎?以及要促成這件事的第一步是什麼,Mike?也許你可以再多談一點。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks for the question, Rob. Again, I'm not sure, Chris, if I had to do it over again, maybe I wouldn't have put revenue synergies out there, because I think what I'm hearing from investors is, well, we don't care until you put them into the algorithm, which I think is fair enough. However, sitting in my shoes, Rob, I think we will deliver more over time. But I wouldn't write that down, because I think it ultimately has to make its way into the growth algorithm. So that's part one.

    謝謝你的問題,Rob。再次強調,我不確定,Chris,如果讓我重來一次,也許我不會把營收協同效益放出來,因為我從投資人那裡聽到的是:嗯,我們不在乎,直到你把它們放進成長演算法(algorithm)裡,我覺得這也很合理。不過,以我所處的位置來看,Rob,我認為我們會隨時間推移交付更多。但我不會把它寫死,因為我認為它最終必須反映到成長演算法中。所以這是第一部分。

  • But I'd say in the medium term or short-term, I would say it's what you say which is like there's some obvious distribution gaps. We had a large personal KC personal care business in Europe, probably about a decade ago. But we had a tough time in that business, I think Kenvue brings I think a lot stronger distribution and capability in Europe than we ever had.

    但我會說,在中期或短期內,我會說就像你提到的,確實存在一些明顯的通路缺口(distribution gaps)。我們在歐洲曾經有一個規模很大的 KC 個人護理業務,大概在十年前。但我們在那個業務上遇到不少困難;我認為 Kenvue 在歐洲帶來的通路與能力,比我們過去任何時候都更強。

  • Similarly in India, we used to be in a joint venture with Unilever where that got us very good distribution and when that When that agreement ended, I think we've struggled since and so Kenvue has a multi hundred million dollar business there. They're in about 3.1 Million points of distribution in India, and I think you know that that's our market that I think are you know the KC personal care brands that can make an impact in.

    同樣地在印度,我們過去曾與聯合利華(Unilever)成立合資企業,讓我們擁有非常好的通路;而當那項協議結束後,我認為我們此後一直很吃力,所以 Kenvue 在那裡有數億美元規模的業務。他們在印度約有 310 萬個通路據點(points of distribution),而我想你也知道,那是我們的市場,我認為 KC 的個人護理品牌可以在那裡產生影響。

  • And so I think there's going to be some obvious, I would say, geographic distribution opportunities that while we've struggled in the past, I think there are some capabilities that are different. The full of it is the same. Within Kenvue, they've got a relatively, I would say, a smaller business in markets like Mexico and Korea, we are over $1 billion in both those businesses just on the KC side.

    因此我認為會有一些很明顯的、我會說地理上的通路機會;雖然我們過去曾經掙扎,但我認為現在有一些能力是不同的。整體論點是一樣的。在 Kenvue 之內,他們在墨西哥與韓國等市場的業務相對較小;而我們僅就 KC 這一側,在這兩個市場的業務都超過 10 億美元。

  • And so I think, again, we feel like there's some pretty good opportunity longer-term, and again, maybe there's a misnomer in terms of what's a synergy. There's really two buckets of what we're calling synergies. There's integration synergy, which tends to be the smaller amount in my mind, because what we haven't articulated as well, and this is probably my fault, Rob, is, like there's a lot more transformation opportunity, right? And the thing is, KC, I would say we're still in the early innings of our transformation, I'd say like the third inning, and I think Ken used earlier in that process. And so, a lot of what I guess I'm miscalling synergy is really transformation opportunity.

    所以我認為,再次強調,我們覺得長期來看有相當不錯的機會;而且再一次,對於什麼是「協同效益」可能存在一些誤解。我們所稱的協同效益其實有兩個部分。一個是整合協同效益(integration synergy),在我看來通常金額較小,因為我們沒有把它講得很清楚,而這可能是我的責任,Rob:其實還有更多的轉型機會(transformation opportunity),對吧?而關鍵是,KC 我會說我們仍在轉型的前期階段,大概像是第三局(third inning),而我認為 Ken 在那個過程中更早。因此,我想我把它誤稱為協同效益的很多內容,其實是轉型機會。

  • What we're seeing is there's a lot of category growth, category development opportunity that hasn't there's still an opportunity for us to market more effectively. And again, maybe the example I'll give you, if you think about on the KC side, what we've been doing with Kleenex, what we've been doing with Poise and Depend, which is advertising to expand category consumption, penetration, frequency.

    我們看到的是,仍有很多品類成長、品類發展的機會;我們在更有效行銷方面仍有空間。再者,也許我給你一個例子:如果你想想在 KC 這一側,我們對 Kleenex 所做的、以及我們對 Poise 和 Depend 所做的,也就是透過廣告來擴大品類消費、滲透率與使用頻率。

  • And by the way, on the Kenvue side, they're seeing great results. The reason why allergy or Zyrtec is up this year is because they've shifted to that strategy at the beginning of this year, and I think it's really working effectively. I mean, the facts are, which is shocking, less than 20% of the population that suffers from seasonal allergies ever treats it. And so, that's the insight that we're going after. And so that's why we have a lot of conviction, and I would just say what the growth is going to be.

    順帶一提,在 Kenvue 那邊,他們看到非常好的成果。今年過敏藥或 Zyrtec 之所以成長,是因為他們在今年年初就轉向那個策略,我認為確實非常有效。我的意思是,事實是——這很令人震驚——在受季節性過敏困擾的人口中,實際接受治療的不到 20%。因此,這就是我們要切入的洞察。所以這也是為什麼我們非常有信心;我只想說,成長會是什麼樣子。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • And just to be clear, when you gave that $1.9 billion number, were you talking about transformation opportunity also or two different things?

    再確認一下,當你提到 19 億美元那個數字時,你指的是也包含轉型機會,還是兩件不同的事?

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, I would probably say. No, I mean, some of it's pure synergy stuff, but some of it is more efficiency that we saw, so I think it's been it was a blended number.

    嗯,我大概會這麼說。不,我是說,其中一部分是純粹的協同效益,但也有一部分是我們看到的效率提升,所以我認為那是一個混合的數字。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • But the $1.9 billion is cost, that does not have anything related to revenue synergies, Robin, as you remember, I mean, it was minimal in terms of the operating profit. Or EBIT that we would see out of the revenue synergies in what we value, because we reinvested close to 60% in our modeling in the P&L.

    但那 19 億美元是成本,與營收協同效益無關,Robin,如你所記得的,我是說,就我們在估值中所看到的營收協同效益帶來的營業利益而言,其實很有限。或者說 EBIT,我們在估值中看到的營收協同效益所帶來的 EBIT,因為在我們的模型中,我們在損益表裡把將近 60% 重新投入了。

  • Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Yes, it was $1.4 billion in revenue, but only $200 million in EBIT contribution.

    是的,營收是 14 億美元,但對 EBIT 的貢獻只有 2 億美元。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • Because of the reinvestment of around $300 million. So when I talk about the synergies, it's really going to be on the $1.9 billion, which is the costs. Rob, that's what we're focused on.

    因為大約 3 億美元的再投資。所以當我談到協同效益時,真正指的是那 19 億美元,也就是成本。Rob,這就是我們聚焦的重點。

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • And Rob, maybe just sorry to keep adding stuff, but I would say, hey, maybe this is a topic that investors bring up, hey, Mike, is this a cost play or is it a growth play? And my attitude on, no, this is a flywheel play, meaning like, the whole goal is we're getting costs out so that we can reinvest in the brands to grow the brands faster. And that's our model of Powering Care that we feel really strong conviction about that's been working for us.

    另外 Rob,不好意思我再補充一下,但我想說,嘿,這可能是投資人會提出的話題:嘿,Mike,這是一個成本策略,還是一個成長策略?而我的看法是,不,這是一個飛輪策略,也就是說,我們的整體目標是把成本降下來,讓我們能再投資到品牌上,讓品牌更快成長。這就是我們的 Powering Care 模式;我們對此非常有信心,而且它一直對我們有效。

  • I know we can always improve our execution and we're going to do that, but that's what we're doing with this whole transformation with both companies.

    我知道我們的執行永遠可以再提升,我們也會這麼做,但這就是我們在兩家公司這整個轉型中所做的事。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And that's how we doubled over the last five years, our absolute advertising spend, because we applied that flywheel as we ran through Power and Care and the whole transformation of the portfolio. So that's the playbook that we're going to have as the combined company gets underway this week.

    這也是為什麼在過去五年裡,我們把絕對廣告支出加倍,因為我們在推動 Power and Care 以及整個產品組合轉型的過程中,運用了那個飛輪。所以,當合併後的公司在本週開始運作時,這就是我們將採用的作戰手冊。

  • Robert Moskow - Analyst

    Robert Moskow - Analyst

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。

  • Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • If we can take one more question.

    如果我們可以再接一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Susan Anderson, Canaccord Genuity.

    Susan Anderson,Canaccord Genuity。

  • Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

    Susan Anderson - Equity Analyst

  • Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question and thanks for all the details this morning. I was wondering if maybe you can just give some color, maybe I missed it on just where retailer inventories are at with your brands and categories and then also including the Kenvue brands.

    嗨,早安。謝謝讓我提問,也謝謝今天早上提供的所有細節。我想請問你是否可以再補充一些背景——也許我漏聽了——關於零售商在你們的品牌與品類上的庫存水位,以及也包括 Kenvue 的品牌。

  • I think some of the competitors talked about a weaker start to cold cough, which impacted retailer orders, I guess. Are you seeing something similar with Kenvue's OTC brands with inventory at retail and then just how you're feeling about your other categories as well going into the back half thing.

    我想有些競爭對手提到感冒咳嗽品類開局較弱,因而影響了零售商的訂單。你們在 Kenvue 的 OTC 品牌上,是否也看到類似情況:零售端庫存狀況如何?另外,對於你們其他品類在進入下半年時的看法如何?

  • Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

    Mike Hsu - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

  • Also, it's a great question. Since Nelson and I just looked at the retail inventory by geography at Kenvue last Thursday, I think it's kind of normal to within the range of what they've been carrying for the last few years. And so, we feel good about that. I think there have been some changes on our side.

    這也是個很好的問題。由於 Nelson 和我上週四才剛按地理區域檢視了 Kenvue 的零售庫存,我認為它大致正常,落在他們過去幾年一直維持的區間內。所以我們對此感覺良好。我認為在我們這邊確實有一些變化。

  • I would say retailers have inventory has compressed a bit. I do think with a couple of big customers, there have been some changes in inventory strategy, inventory technology that's driven by that.

    我會說零售商的庫存有稍微壓縮一些。我確實認為,對於幾個大客戶而言,他們在庫存策略、庫存技術上有一些變動,而這也推動了上述情況。

  • But again, I think in general, I would say the retail inventory headwinds that we've experienced last year tend to be timing-related. And so, our underlying demand, I'll tell you, we feel it remains healthy.

    但再說一次,整體而言,我會說我們去年經歷的零售庫存逆風多半是時點因素所致。因此,就底層需求而言,我可以告訴你,我們覺得仍然健康。

  • Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

    Nelson Urdaneta - Chief Financial Officer

  • And I would just add, I mean, two things, one, in North America for this year, it's going to represent for the close to about a point of growth and that's what we have for us, for KC standalone, as we go into Kenvue, as Mike said, I mean, we've been looking at the data, we're obviously joining forces as we speak.

    我再補充兩點:第一,在北美今年這將大約代表接近 1 個百分點的成長,而這就是我們——就 KC 單獨來看——在進入 Kenvue 時所面對的情況;如 Mike 所說,我們一直在看數據,我們也正如你所見在整合力量。

  • We'll go through the integration, and we'll see what those levels are. And there obviously could be some changes and adjustments, but the one thing is we're going to be focusing on service levels. And as service levels improve and whatnot, there will be further optimization in inventories.

    我們會進行整合,並看看那些水位是多少。當然可能會有一些變動與調整,但有一點是,我們會聚焦在服務水準。而隨著服務水準提升等等,庫存也會進一步被最佳化。

  • And obviously, this is one of the places whereas we get into the integration with our supply chain team and we deploy Kinaxis and some of the tools that we've got, that should drive optimization over time. But again, more to come on that as we get underway with the integration, Susan.

    而且很明顯,這也是我們在與供應鏈團隊進行整合、並部署 Kinaxis 以及我們所擁有的一些工具時,能隨時間推動最佳化的領域之一。但同樣地,Susan,隨著我們開始推進整合,後續還會有更多資訊。

  • Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Chris Jakubik - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Great. Well, thanks everybody for joining us. If analysts have any further follow-up questions, myself and my team will be available to take them. But thanks everybody for tuning in today.

    很好。那麼謝謝各位今天加入我們。如果分析師還有任何後續追問,我和我的團隊都會在場回覆。也謝謝大家今天收聽。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. Thank you once again for your participation.

    謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以掛斷電話線,祝您有美好的一天。再次感謝您的參與。