ORIX Corp (IX) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Since it is time, we now would like to get started. Despite your busy schedule, thank you very much for attending the earnings call by ORIX Corporation. This is the second quarter of fiscal year ending March 2025 earnings call. I'll be serving as a moderator. I am from IR Sustainability Promotion Department, Nakane.

既然時間到了，我們現在就開始吧。儘管您的日程很忙，但非常感謝您參加歐力士公司的財報電話會議。這是截至 2025 年 3 月的財年第二季的財報電話會議。我將擔任主持人。我來自 IR 永續發展促進部，中根。

So at today's earnings call, we have Director Representative Executive Officer, President and CEO, Inoue; and Operating Officer in Charge of IR, Kazuki Yamamoto. (Operator Instructions)

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們有董事代表執行長、總裁兼執行長 Inoue；負責 IR 的營運官 Kazuki Yamamoto。（操作員說明）

Today, we will be explaining about the progress of our performance and outline of our business. Mr. Inoue will explain, and this will be followed by some additional remarks by Yamamoto-san and also open up Q&A after that. We plan to hold this about an hour. So Inoue-san, over to you.

今天，我們將解釋我們的業績進展和我們的業務概要。井上先生將進行解釋，隨後山本先生將進行一些補充說明，然後將進行問答。我們計劃舉行大約一個小時。那麼井上先生，就交給你了。

This is Inoue from ORIX. Thank you very much for your attendance. So let me explain by making use of the slide number 2. For the first six months of FY25 margin, ORIX recorded pretax profit of JPY257 billion. Net income was JPY182.9 billion, up 42.8% year-over-year, a record high first half net income for ORIX.

我是歐力士的井上。非常感謝您的出席。讓我用 2 號投影片來解釋。25 財年前六個月的利潤率，歐力士錄得稅前利潤 2,570 億日圓。淨利1,829億日圓，年增42.8%，創歐力士上半年淨利歷史新高。

Now this represents 46.9% progress in our full year net income outlook of JPY390 billion, and we expect strong earnings to continue into the second half. So we will continue to work towards achieving our earnings target. First half ROE came in at 9.3%, and we will continue to recycle capital in order to meet our full year ROE target of 9.6%.

現在，這代表我們全年淨利潤預期 3,900 億日圓進步了 46.9%，我們預計強勁的利潤將持續到下半年。因此，我們將繼續努力實現我們的獲利目標。上半年ROE為9.3%，我們將繼續循環利用資本，以實現全年9.6%的ROE目標。

Now please refer to page 3. Here on this page, we have outlined progress for each of the three categories, finance, operation and investment. For all three categories, I believe we were able to post first half results that were in line with expectations.

現在請參閱第 3 頁。在此頁面上，我們概述了財務、營運和投資三個類別的進展。對於所有三個類別，我相信我們能夠發布符合預期的上半年結果。

Segment profit for each category were finance, JPY92.8 billion; operation, JPY105.8 billion; investment, JPY89.2 billion, for a total of JPY287.8 billion. This event 47%, 44% and 48% of each category is full year target. Pretax profit, which are segment profit minus unallocated SG&A expenses from head office and administrative departments for first half were JPY257 billion.

每個類別的部門利潤為金融，928 億日圓；營運1,058億日圓；投資892億日元，總計2,878億日圓。該活動每個類別的47%、44%和48%是全年目標。上半年稅前利潤（部門利潤減去總公司和行政部門未分配的 SG&A 費用）為 2,570 億日圓。

Please move to page 4. In the finance category, the sale of two-thirds of ORIX stake in ORIX Credit to NTT Docomo resulted in the business becoming an equity method affiliated term and reducing the amount of profit it contributes.

請移至第 4 頁。在金融領域，將歐力士信貸三分之二的歐力士股份出售給NTT Docomo，導致該業務成為權益法附屬條款，並減少了其貢獻的利潤額。

Despite this, ongoing strong performance at ORIX Life Insurance contributed to earnings in this category. And therefore, we expect finance category profits to grow year-over-year on an actual basis after excluding last year's JPY57.2 billion gain on the sales of ORIX credit stake.

儘管如此，歐力士人壽保險持續強勁的業績為該類別的盈利做出了貢獻。因此，在剔除去年因出售歐力士信貸股權而獲得的 572 億日圓收益後，我們預期金融類別利潤將較去年同期實際成長。

Within Japan, we had expected yen interest rates to go up slowly. However, given the results of Japan's recent lower house elections in the National Diet, we now anticipate a scenario characterized by political instability, worsening of Japan's fiscal situation and further yen weakness.

在日本國內，我們原本預期日圓利率將緩慢上升。然而，考慮到日本近期國會眾議院選舉的結果，我們現在預計會出現政治不穩定、日本財政狀況惡化以及日圓進一步貶值的情況。

Although, I feel there is some room to hope for improvement in finance-related spreads and asset management yields, we plan to carefully watch for trends and changes in the interest rate while maintaining our current policies to keep the status quo in the financial segments.

雖然我覺得金融相關的利差和資產管理收益率還有一定的改善空間，但我們計劃在維持現有政策的同時，密切關注利率的趨勢和變化，以維持金融領域的現狀。

In addition, in light of the results of new US presidential elections, I think that geopolitical risks and uncertainty could worsen owing to extreme foreign policy. The US is likely to carry out rate cuts and economic stimulus measures, but these could lead to resurgence of inflation, higher interest rates and the weaker yen. So as of now, it is difficult to get a read on condition for 2025 and beyond.

此外，鑑於美國新一屆總統選舉的結果，我認為極端的外交政策可能會加劇地緣政治風險和不確定性。美國可能會實施降息和經濟刺激措施，但這些措施可能會導致通膨抬頭、利率上升和日圓貶值。因此，到目前為止，很難了解 2025 年及以後的情況。

In any case, we can say that now is the time to proactively grow the scale of our assets in the ORIX USA business. However, during this fiscal year, we will prioritize a conservative view on credit cards and plan to begin this asset expansion in earnest from FY26 March end and beyond.

無論如何，我們可以說，現在是積極擴大歐力士美國業務資產規模的時候了。然而，在本財年，我們將優先對信用卡持保守態度，並計劃從 2026 財年 3 月底及以後開始認真開始資產擴張。

That said, we are seeing some signs of a recovery in the private equity market and some areas of the real estate market, while the CLO market is clearly on a recovery track. Although, we see some room for upside potential during this fiscal year, we have not reflected such expectations on our earnings projection for the segment.

儘管如此，我們看到私募股權市場和房地產市場某些領域出現了一些復甦的跡象，而貸款抵押貸款市場顯然也處於復甦軌道。儘管我們認為本財年還有一定的上行潛力，但我們並未在該部門的獲利預測中反映這種預期。

In any case, in light of the fact that we are doubtless in a period of political uncertainty, we have slimmed down the ORIX USA balance sheet using both securitization and third-party sales to JPY10.8 billion as of end September 2024, a reduction of about $2 billion over the past two years.

無論如何，鑑於我們無疑正處於政治不確定時期，截至 2024 年 9 月底，我們已透過證券化和第三方銷售將歐力士美國的資產負債表縮減至 108 億日元，過去兩年約20億美元。

We remain cautious on the Greater China region. We have held off new investments in China, including Thailand at ORIX, owing to the sluggishness in consumer spending and the severe real estate slab. The balance of our investments in Greater China are less than 3% of total group assets.

我們對大中華地區保持謹慎態度。由於消費支出低迷和房地產市場嚴峻，我們推遲了在中國的新投資，包括歐力士在泰國的投資。我們在大中華區的投資餘額不到集團總資產的3%。

So we view our risk associated with this region as limited. These revenues in other regions of Asia and Australia segment are healthy, and we have no particular concerns regarding these businesses.

因此，我們認為與該地區相關的風險是有限的。亞洲其他地區和澳洲業務的收入狀況良好，我們對這些業務沒有特別的擔憂。

Please move on to page 5. In the operation category, pretax profit rose 5.1% to JPY105.8 billion, achieving 44% of our full year target. We expect profit to rise for the full year as well. At Kansai Airport, the number of foreign passengers has risen to 109% of pre-COVID period.

請移至第 5 頁。在營運類別中，稅前利潤成長5.1%至1,058億日元，完成全年目標的44%。我們預計全年利潤也將成長。關西機場的外籍旅客數量已上升至新冠疫情爆發前的 109%。

By spring 2025, the renovation of Terminal 1 building will allow us to expand our capacity for overseas route traffic to 40 million passengers. This will position Kansai Airports to be completely ready to host visitors for the Expo 2025 Osaka Kansai, Japan.

到 2025 年春季，1 號航站樓改造將使我們的海外航線運輸能力擴大到 4000 萬人次。這將使關西機場做好充分準備，接待日本 2025 年大阪關西世博會的遊客。

In addition, an increase in inbound tourists has led to sharp improvements in both occupancy rate and profitability at ORIX's hotels and inns. Outside the Kansai Airport, ORIX's current businesses within the Kansai region include the Umekita Phase I and II projects where ORIX Group, Mitsubishi Estate and Hankyu Hanshin Holdings have worked together as partners to jointly promote the redevelopment of this key urban area.

此外，入境旅客的增加也帶動歐力士旗下飯店及旅館的入住率及獲利能力大幅提升。在關西機場之外，歐力士目前在關西地區的業務包括梅北一期和二期項目，歐力士集團、三菱地所和阪急阪神控股作為合作夥伴，共同推動這一重點城區的再開發。

In September 2024, this group and six other companies together opened part of the Grand Green Osaka section of the project early, while the full scale open will be from 2025. In addition, the MICE IR projects development will begin in earnest following the conclusion of Expo 2025. Total project costs are JPY1.27 trillion.

2024年9月，該集團與其他六家公司共同提前開放了該專案Grand Green Osaka部分的部分，而全面開放將於2025年開始。此外，MICE IR 計畫的開發將在 2025 年世博會結束後正式開始。項目總成本為 1.27 兆日圓。

Even after accounting for future inflation, ORIX Group and MGM will plan to invest between JPY300 billion to JPY350 billion each, while 22 major Kansai firms will contribute around JPY127 billion in total. This and JPY530 billion in financing from banks will complete the capital required for the project. And so, we can expect the start operations in fall of 2030.

即使考慮到未來的通貨膨脹，歐力士集團和米高梅也將計畫分別投資3,000億日元至3,500億日元，而關西22家主要公司將總共投資約1,270億日元。這筆資金加上銀行提供的 5,300 億日圓融資將完成該專案所需的資本。因此，我們預計將於 2030 年秋季開始營運。

In the Environment and Energy segment, we announced the acquisition of hydropower resources in Spain by Elawan Energy, 175 megawatts equivalent production that is, and the signing of a power purchase agreement between Elawan and Google in the United States.

在環境與能源板塊，我們宣布Elawan Energy收購西班牙水力發電資源，即175兆瓦當量發電量，並宣布Elawan與美國谷歌簽署購電協議。

In Japan, we continue to steadily move forward with the renewable energy business such as construction of energy storage station while keeping a close eye on interest rates and construction costs, our main focus continues to be contributing to a decarbonized society over the long term.

在日本，我們繼續穩步推進儲能站建設等再生能源業務，同時密切關注利率和建設成本，我們的主要重點仍然是長期為脫碳社會做出貢獻。

Turning to the asset management business, ROBECO Group, our core asset saw AUM grew to a record high of EUR358 billion, including ROBECO asset management companies in ORIX Group now have assets totaling JPY74 trillion as of June 2024, and we continue to push forward in our efforts to realize scale of JPY100 trillion in assets at an early stage.

說到資產管理業務，ROBECO集團，我們的核心資產AUM成長至3580億歐元的歷史新高，其中歐力士集團旗下的ROBECO資產管理公司截至2024年6月目前資產總額達74萬億日元，我們繼續推動資產管理業務。

Please move to page 6. In the investments category, we achieved a 200% year-over-year increase toJPY89.2 billion in pretax profit. This represents 48% of our full year target. Many SMEs are facing successor shortage, and they are obliged to close their businesses. So our policy is to respect the corporate culture of investees and along with related stakeholders, we are to develop the businesses.

請移至第 6 頁。在投資類別中，我們的稅前利潤年增 200%，達到 892 億日圓。這占我們全年目標的 48%。許多中小企業面臨接班人短缺，被迫關門。所以我們的政策是尊重被投資方的企業文化，並與相關利害關係人一起發展業務。

So ORIX, during the investment term, we developed the successor of the investee using the sales network of group within and outside of Japan and promote the sales of new products of investees, introduce partners who can co-work, including overseas and enrich a branch network.

因此，歐力士在投資期間，利用集團國內外的銷售網絡，培養被投資企業的後繼者，促進被投資企業新產品的銷售，引進海外等可合作的合作夥伴，充實分公司。

So apart from capital provisioning, we are proud to be a partner being able to provide various benefits, not only PE investment, but corporate financial services segment. we are sincerely facing the issues of business successor issue of 40,000 clients, including M&A referrals, we are providing various services.

因此，除了資本供應之外，我們很自豪能夠成為能夠提供各種好處的合作夥伴，不僅是私募股權投資，還包括企業金融服務領域。我們真誠面對40,000家客戶的企業接班人問題，包括併購推薦，我們提供各種服務。

Please go to page 7. So sale of Sasaeah Holdings and also sales of Hundred Circus, which is a property operation facility. It is contributing to our investment category. In the second half, we are revisiting the portfolio and for the assets on potential sale, we are now discussing with the potential buyers. So we will continue to do so to achieve the target.

請轉至第 7 頁。因此，出售 Sasaeah Holdings 以及出售房地產營運設施 Hundred Circus。它正在為我們的投資類別做出貢獻。下半年，我們正在重新審視投資組合，對於潛在出售的資產，我們現在正在與潛在買家進行討論。因此，我們將繼續這樣做以實現目標。

During this fiscal year, from sales, we will be collecting somewhere between JPY520 billion to JPY600 billion. And also, capital in new investment will be about JPY700 billion. So capital recycling is working very well. So we will avoid excessive impact on our financials. We will be managing appropriately ALM.

在本財年，我們將從銷售中獲得 5,200 億日圓至 6,000 億日圓之間的收入。此外，新投資資金約7,000億日圓。因此，資本回收運作得非常好。因此，我們將避免對我們的財務造成過度影響。我們將適當管理 ALM。

ORIX has been targeting unlisted companies, and we have been carrying out marketing efforts focusing on business succession products. But going forward, we will also proactively work on carve-outs related to restructuring of Japanese companies and also delisting of the investees. As a part of this effort, we have announced investment into projector business of Panasonic Connect.

歐力士一直針對非上市企業，一直在進行以企業傳承產品為重點的行銷工作。但展望未來，我們也將積極進行與日本企業重組和被投資企業下市相關的剝離工作。作為這項努力的一部分，我們宣布投資 Panasonic Connect 的投影機業務。

Going forward, we have to gain permits and also go through the procedures of spin-off business division. So investment will be executed within March 2026. So Panasonic Connect will own 20% of the entity. So together, we will operate the business. So in addition, we have invested in lines which is a company which develops and sells educational software.

下一步我們還要拿到許可，還要辦理分拆業務的手續。因此投資將於2026年3月內執行。因此 Panasonic Connect 將擁有該實體 20% 的股份。因此，我們將共同經營業務。此外，我們還投資了lines，這是一家開發和銷售教育軟體的公司。

So apart from PE Investments segment, including inquiries to the group, we have a rich pipeline. We will be selective in carrying out investments. And also, logistics-related investment, we have many under development, but with higher construction costs, there are impact on profitability. So we are paying attention to downside risks.

因此，除了私募股權投資領域，包括對集團的詢問，我們還有豐富的管道。我們將有選擇地進行投資。還有物流相關的投資，我們有很多正在開發中，但是建設成本較高，對獲利能力有影響。所以我們正在關注下行風險。

Going on to page 8, aircraft and ship segment. There were a defect of aircraft by Boeing, and there were also strikes and the supply of new aircraft are tight. And there are risks lease factors and new aircraft prices going up and airlines load factors are rising, and the credit is improving. So overall, airline industry is achieving a healthy growth.

繼續第 8 頁，飛機和船舶部分。波音飛機出現缺陷，也發生罷工，新飛機供應緊張。租賃因素和新飛機價格上漲、航空公司載客率上升、信用狀況改善等風險也存在。總體而言，航空業正在實現健康成長。

ORIX Aviation, it owns and manages roughly 200 aircraft. We plan to increase mainly narrow body of our fleet. And ORIX has a 30% stake in Avolon, and it announced the acquisition of Castlelake Aviation, an asset management firm of 118 aircrafts.

歐力士航空擁有並管理約 200 架飛機。我們計劃主要增加機隊的窄體飛機。歐力士擁有Avolon 30%的股份，並宣布收購擁有118架飛機的資產管理公司Castlelake Aviation。

The Moody's have increased the credit rating outlook from BAA 3 Stable to Positive. So we will maintain the financial soundness and expand the business. And going forward, we will continue to work with ORIX Aviation and build the portfolio focusing on narrow-body, at least long-term to leading airline carriers. We will continue to do the capital recycling.

穆迪將信用評等展望從 BAA 3 穩定上調至正面。因此，我們將保持財務穩健並擴大業務。展望未來，我們將繼續與歐力士航空合作，打造專注於窄體客機的產品組合，至少長期來看是領先的航空公司。我們會繼續做好資金回收工作。

In March 2023, Santoku Senpaku joined the group, and we purchased 67 ships at a cheap price, including a new eco vessel using methanol fuel. We are proceeding with purchasing of three Panamax bulker.

2023年3月，三德先博加入集團，我們以低廉的價格購買了67艘船，其中包括一艘使用甲醇燃料的新型生態船。我們正在著手購買三艘巴拿馬型散裝貨船。

So based on today's market, the portfolio of ships is more than JPY100 billion. Going forward, we will drive with capital recycling and utilize ship management capability of Santoku and manage the vessels of a third party, and we would like to explore joining -- entering into coastal business as well.

因此，根據今天的市場，船舶投資組合超過1000億日元。未來，我們將推動資本循環利用，利用三德的船舶管理能力，管理第三方船舶，並探索加盟——也進入海岸業務。

Moving on to page 9. This is about shareholder returns and interim dividend. So at the earnings call of March 2024, we announced that our dividend will be higher of either 39% of annual net profit or JPY98.6, which was the dividend of last year. Therefore, the interim dividend will be 39% of JPY182.9 billion.

轉到第 9 頁。這是關於股東回報和中期股息。因此，在 2024 年 3 月的財報電話會議上，我們宣布股息將高於年度淨利潤的 39% 或 98.6 日元，這是去年的股息。因此，中期股利將為1,829億日圓的39%。

This is first half net income, which means that it will be JPY62.17 per stock. So compared to [JPY42.8], which was last year's interim dividend, it's the dividend hike by 45%, JPY19.37. And if we can achieve the net income of JPY390 billion, then the annual dividend per share will be JPY133.

這是上半年淨利潤，這意味著每隻股票將為 62.17 日圓。因此，與去年的中期股息[JPY42.8]相比，股息上漲了45％，即19.37日圓。如果我們能夠實現淨利潤3900億日元，那麼每股年度股息將為133日元。

Please go to page 10. While growing profit, we are mindful of ROE. That's how we want to improve our corporate value. That's core policy of ORIX. So for the buyback program of JPY50 billion, this is underway. And for the buyback of shares, until we improve ROE significantly, we are committed to continuing this program.

請翻至第 10 頁。在成長利潤的同時，我們關注ROE。這就是我們希望提高企業價值的方式。這是歐力士的核心政策。因此，500 億日圓的回購計畫正在進行中。對於股票回購，在我們顯著提高股本回報率之前，我們致力於繼續該計劃。

So improving profit goes without saying, but we will continue to manage the company focusing on EPS. For fiscal year ending March 2025, this will be the final year for a three year plan of 2023, which was announced in 2023.

因此，提高利潤是不言而喻的，但我們將繼續以每股收益為中心來管理公司。截至 2025 年 3 月的財年，這將是 2023 年三年計畫的最後一年，該計畫於 2023 年宣布。

So from the initial plan, JPY390 billion is nothing that we can be proud of, but we are planning to do our outmost to achieve this level. And in addition, for the next three year plan, the discussion is already underway so that stock price can continue to achieve more than 1 times PBR in a stable manner.

所以從最初的計劃來看，3900億日元並不是什麼值得我們驕傲的事情，但我們計劃盡最大努力達到這個水平。另外，對於未來三年的計劃，已經在討論中，以便股價能夠繼續穩定實現1倍以上的PBR。

And also, we would like to go on to achieve ROE 11% and 15%, we will come with measures. So when we announced the results for fiscal year March 2025, we would like to share that direction. That will be all from my end. Thank you very much for your kind attention.

而且，我們希望繼續實現ROE 11％和15％，我們將採取措施。因此，當我們宣布 2025 年 3 月財年的業績時，我們希望分享這個方向。這就是我的全部內容。非常感謝您的關注。

Mr. Inoue, thank you very much. So this is Yamamoto speaking. And now I will share some of the details of our financials. Please refer to page 11. In the first half, segment profits were JPY287.8 billion, which is up 29% year-over-year. This breaks down to JPY221.5 billion in base profit, dark blue colored and JPY66.4 billion in investment gains, light blue.

井上先生，非常感謝您。這是山本在講話。現在我將分享我們財務的一些細節。請參閱第 11 頁。上半年，部門利潤為2,878億日元，年增29%。這細分為深藍色的基本利潤 2,215 億日圓和淺藍色的投資收益 664 億日圓。

On the lower right-hand chart shows quarterly profit trends, both base profit and investment gains had trended well, with base profit rose to -- rising to JPY117.7 billion for the second quarter. Investment gains coming in at JPY32.9 billion, both being the highest quarterly figures in three fiscal years.

右下圖顯示了季度利潤趨勢，基本利潤和投資收益均呈現良好趨勢，第二季基本利潤升至 1,177 億日圓。投資收益達 329 億日元，均為三個財年以來最高的季度數字。

Please turn to page 12 and 13 for outline of segment profits and segment assets. 7 of 10 segments reported higher segment profit year-over-year. Several segments enjoyed double-digit profit growth, including real estate, PE and concession, aircraft and ships and corporate financial services and maintenance leasing.

分部溢利及分部資產摘要請參閱第12及13頁。 10 個分部中有 7 個分部利潤年增。多個業務領域實現了兩位數的利潤成長，包括房地產、私募股權和特許經營、飛機和船舶以及企業金融服務和維修租賃。

Of the three segments, where profits fell year-over-year, banking and credit segment was, as outlined by CEO Inoue earlier, owing to the absence of profits from ORIX Credit. In energy and environment, profits were down due to the sluggishness in the overseas wholesale electricity market and one-off losses from an investee booked in the first quarter.

正如執行長井上早些時候所概述的那樣，在利潤同比下降的三個部門中，銀行和信貸部門的利潤同比下降，原因是歐力士信貸沒有利潤。能源與環境業務方面，受海外電力批發市場低迷以及第一季投資企業一次性虧損影響，利潤下降。

However, ORIX renewed energy capacity in operation has grown from just 1 gigawatt at the end of March of 2019 to 4.5 gigawatts at the end of September of this year. With an increase of 0.2 gigawatts in the last 12 months, while being mindful of short-term market trends, supporting demand for clean energy caused by the dramatic increase in AI and DX remains to be very important.

然而，歐力士新增投運產能已從2019年3月底的僅為1吉瓦增至今年9月底的4.5吉瓦。過去12個月增加了0.2吉瓦，在關注短期市場趨勢的同時，支援人工智慧和DX急劇成長帶來的清潔能源需求仍然非常重要。

At the same time, it is also key to carefully watch trends in interest rates and construction costs. Segment assets were down slightly by JPY114.5 billion versus end March to [JPY15.9 trillion], owing primarily due to foreign exchange. This is largely in line with our initial expectation.

同時，仔細觀察利率和建築成本的趨勢也很關鍵。部門資產較 3 月底小幅下降 1,145 億日圓至 [15.9 兆日圓]，主要是由於外匯所致。這很大程度上符合我們最初的預期。

And next about the financials on page 14. As you can see on the left, as of end of September, including deposit, short and long-term borrowing was JPY8.5 trillion. This was flat from last fiscal year. Including borrowings from financial institutions, we continue to raise funds efficiently through corporate debt market.

接下來是第 14 頁的財務狀況。如左圖所示，截至 9 月底，包括存款、短期和長期借款在內，金額為 8.5 兆日圓。這與上一財年持平。包括金融機構借款在內，我們持續透過企業債市場高效籌集資金。

So as you can see in the middle, the funding cost. The funding cost related to foreign currency began to come down from the second quarter. FRB is set to continue to cut rates therefore, in line with the market consensus, we expect that US dollar interest rate will decline. That's our assumption.

正如你在中間看到的，資金成本。與外幣相關的融資成本從第二季開始下降。因此，FRB將繼續降息，與市場共識一致，我們預期美元利率將會下降。這是我們的假設。

Yen-based cost, the funding cost interest rate is on the rise slowly, but the favorable funding environment is likely to continue. So right now, the interest rate sensitivity remains the same as previous quarter, and yen interest rate hike are listed at slight negative.

從日圓成本來看，融資成本利率正在緩慢上升，但有利的融資環境可能會持續。所以目前利率敏感度與上季持平，日圓升息被列為小幅負值。

And this is because we have company used assets, which does not have interest rate sensitivity, and we also have some foreign-denominated assets, including emerging market currency that are linked to yen asset. So yen interest rate sensitivity remains to be positive.

這是因為我們有公司使用的資產，這些資產不具有利率敏感性，而且我們還有一些以外幣計價的資產，包括與日圓資產掛鉤的新興市場貨幣。因此日圓利率敏感度仍然為正。

And for the ForEx, with a JPY1 cheaper impact before tax profit is JPY1.5 billion. So ForEx remains to be volatile. So including hedge, we need to flexibly and efficiently control the risks.

對於外匯來說，便宜 1 日圓的稅前利潤為 15 億日圓。因此外匯市場仍然波動。所以包括對沖在內，我們需要靈活有效地控制風險。

Of course, the sensitivity analysis of ALM, this does not include the future interest rate outlook, businesses and financial operation. Therefore, our base case is for US dollar and euro interest rates to come down and a slight increase in yen interest rate. So according to the changes, we will flexibly change our policies.

當然，ALM的敏感度分析，這不包括未來的利率前景、企業和財務運作。因此，我們的基本預測是美元和歐元利率下降，日圓利率小幅上升。所以我們會根據變化，靈活改變我們的政策。

And for interest rate outlook and financial business direction, this was explained by Mr. Inoue earlier. And the result of presidential election in the US and Lower House election in Japan on domestic policy, regardless of this trend, we expect that both interest rate and FX will continue to be [opaque]. And so we need to carefully monitor.

而對於利率前景和金融業務方向，井上先生先前也對此進行了解釋。而美國總統選舉和日本眾議院選舉的結果將影響國內政策，無論這一趨勢如何，我們預計利率和匯率都將繼續受到影響。[不透明]。所以我們需要仔細監控。

And as you can see on the left on page 15, D/E ratio is 1.6 times. This is a conservative leverage. And in the center, based on the assumption of A grade of global agencies credit rating agencies, employed capital ratio is stable at 93%. We will continue capital recycling and conduct optimal capital allocation of the portfolio. Through close communication with the credit rating agencies, we will pay attention to the financial soundness. That will be all.

如第 15 頁左側所示，D/E 比為 1.6 倍。這是一個保守的槓桿。而在中心，基於全球機構信用評等機構A級的假設，動用資本比率穩定在93%。我們將持續進行資本循環，對投資組合進行資本優化配置。透過與信用評等機構的密切溝通，我們將專注於財務穩健性。僅此而已。

We would like to open the floor for questions now.

我們現在想請大家提問。

(Operator Instructions) Bank of America, Tsujino-san.

（操作員指示）美國銀行，辻野先生。

So I will ask one question. So the JPY390 billion profit for the full year. I know that you have achieved about all the progress of 50%. So therefore, there was much progress as compared to the first quarter. Now in terms of the achievement, so how comfortable are you especially in light of the pipeline of the sales that you are scheduling?

所以我會問一個問題。因此全年利潤為3900億日圓。我知道你已經取得了大約50%的進度。因此，與第一季相比，取得了很大進展。現在就成就而言，您感覺如何，特別是考慮到您正在安排的銷售管道？

This is Inoue answering to your question. Normally, as you know, our company -- I'm sure you have been following our company for some time now. So we tend to be a tail heavy in achieving our fiscal year earnings and that was really the case in the last year.

這是井上回答你的問題。通常，如您所知，我們公司—我相信您已經關注我們公司有一段時間了。因此，我們在實現本財年盈利方面往往會拖後腿，去年的情況確實如此。

We are not that as heavy as we were in the last year. But in terms of gain on sales, we are scheduled to generate more in the second half, and it is trending well, I would have to say. So JPY390 billion of achievement, I don't know how confident we are in achieving the goal.

我們不像去年那麼重了。但就銷售成長而言，我們計劃在下半年實現更多成長，而且我不得不說，趨勢良好。所以3900億日圓的成績，我不知道我們對實現這個目標有多大信心。

I think that we will be able to achieve 100% of this goal. And in terms of the pipeline, there are some non-public deals -- non-auction deals on a one-on-one basis. So this is why I will not be able to disclose much, but it is on schedule.

我認為我們能夠100%實現這個目標。就管道而言，有一些非公開交易——一對一的非拍賣交易。所以這就是為什麼我不能透露太多，但它是按計劃進行的。

So I'm sorry to follow up. But especially the electricity power station, referring to page 22. I can see that there may be some major assets that you are planning to dispose. So Spain's electricity price that had fallen in fall. And I think there was some discrepancy in terms of the timing of the posting of these numbers in the past.

所以我很抱歉跟進。但尤其是發電站，請參閱第22頁。我看得出您可能正計劃處置一些主要資產。因此西班牙的電價在秋季有所下降。我認為過去發布這些數字的時間存在一些差異。

But with regard to the disposition of these electricity facilities, the power facilities, do you think that you are gaining more appetite or what?

但對於這些電力設施的配置，電力設施，你覺得你越來越有胃口還是怎樣？

So the case in Spain -- in Europe, that is. So the government's intent or the control of the electricity power unfortunately was out of our expectations. So this is why we did generate some losses, but then it is now recovering. And we did acquire hydropower station. And we have 150 gigawatts. We'll start generating profit from next year.

西班牙的情況就是如此——也就是說，在歐洲。所以政府的意圖或對電力的控制不幸地超出了我們的預期。這就是為什麼我們確實產生了一些損失，但現在正在恢復。我們確實收購了水力發電廠。我們有 150 吉瓦。我們將從明年開始產生利潤。

So as a core income, this will be reflected to our financials. And as for the disposition, if we can sell some of our assets, of course, we would have to refer to the balance of what we can gain on the sales of some of these assets.

因此，作為核心收入，這將反映在我們的財務狀況中。至於處置，如果我們可以出售部分資產，當然，我們就得參考出售部分資產所能獲得的餘額。

And of course, there will be a counterparty. If we were to sell these assets and we would have to get the permission of the government as well in many of the cases. So we would not be able to share when we will be able to dispose this asset, but we should be able to conclude the sales, and we'll be able to post some gains. I'm sorry, please allow me to limit my explanation to that.

當然，還會有交易對手。如果我們要出售這些資產，在許多情況下我們還必須獲得政府的許可。因此，我們無法透露何時能夠處置該資產，但我們應該能夠完成銷售，並且我們將能夠發布一些收益。抱歉，請允許我的解釋僅限於此。

SMBC Nikko, Muraki-san.

SMBC Nikko，村木先生。

Yes. I am Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities. On page 4, so after the presidential election, how you recognize the environment. You mentioned a little bit, but in your businesses and also in your investment, what would be the impact, if you could elaborate?

是的。我是SMBC日興證券的村木。第4頁，總統選舉後，你如何認識環境。你提到了一點，但是對你的企業、還有你的投資來說，會產生什麼影響，可以詳細說一下嗎？

To be more specific, in the US, you were considering M&A of renewal energy. So will this be impacted, and yen is cheap. So M&A, exchanging yen to foreign currency, you will refrain from making such an investment. So with the politics, your business and your investment policy, what will be the case?

更具體地說，在美國，你們正在考慮對新能源進行併購。那麼這會受到影響嗎？所以併購，把日圓換成外幣，你就不會做這樣的投資。那麼政治、你的商業和你的投資政策會是怎麼樣的情況呢？

With external directors, we had a discussion today as well. So Trump's ideas and his policy, it's difficult to read. It will be a deal by deal. So it's JPY150 to the dollar right now -- JPY154 to the dollar. So I don't think Trump will admit this.

今天我們也和外部董事進行了討論。所以川普的想法和政策很難讀懂。這將是一筆又一筆的交易。所以現在是 1 美元兌 150 日元——1 美元兌 154 日元。所以我認為川普不會承認這一點。

To China, he's taking a strong line, and he will do that to Japan as well. So he wants to make yen stronger. So the pressure will be quite strong from President Trump. So if so, yen depreciation shifting to yen appreciation, that's the hunch that I have. But when it comes to US, it's all confined within the US market. That's the business that we do.

他對中國採取強硬立場，對日本也將採取強硬立場。所以他想讓日圓走強。所以川普總統的壓力會很大。因此，如果是這樣，日圓貶值將轉向日圓升值，這就是我的預感。但說到美國，一切都僅限於美國市場。這就是我們所做的業務。

So we will not experience this Nippon Steel's case. And with JPY154, can we acquire -- should we acquire? And if we can gain profit, even at the exchange rate of JPY154, then we may give a go ahead. So in yen, dollar terms it will be quite significant with JPY154. But yen, dollar and euro, we are controlling everything separately. So we procure in dollar, and we pay in dollar.

所以我們不會經歷新日鐵的這個案例。對於 154 日元，我們可以收購——我們應該收購嗎？如果我們能夠獲得利潤，即使在 154 日圓的匯率下，我們也可能會繼續。因此，以日圓、美元計算，154 日圓將是相當重要的。但是日圓、美元和歐元，我們分別控制一切。所以我們用美元採購，用美元支付。

So of course, on the financial statements, there will be exchange translation, but let's say IRR would be 20% or so. If we can go after that or those that has growth potential like infrastructure and private credit companies and also AM firms, these are the potential areas that we are continuing to look for. So some are under due diligence phase. Did that answer your question?

當然，在財務報表上，會有匯率換算，但假設 IRR 為 20% 左右。如果我們可以追求那些具有成長潛力的公司，例如基礎設施和私人信貸公司以及積層製造公司，那麼這些就是我們繼續尋找的潛在領域。所以有些正處於盡職調查階段。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes. I've understood very Well.

是的。我已經理解的很好了。

JPMorgan. Sato-san.

摩根大通。佐藤先生。

This is Sato from JPMorgan. So ORIX USA, the second quarter business conditions, if you could be so kind enough to share with us. So 32, 33, on those pages, you have shown the performance of ORIX USA, but it looks as if they have faced a pretty tough second quarter, especially real estate and also private equity because credit loss and also origination of real estate had remained to be sluggish, and that's a qualitative kind of description of the businesses.

我是摩根大通的佐藤。那麼歐力士美國第二季的業務狀況，請與我們分享。因此，在第 32、33 頁上，您展示了 ORIX USA 的業績，但看起來他們第二季度的表現相當艱難，尤其是房地產和私募股權，因為信貸損失和房地產來源仍然存在呆滯，這是對企業的定性描述。

What has exactly happened in the second quarter which had led to such results? And also, if you could be so kind enough to describe the impact as well.

第二季到底發生了什麼事導致了這樣的結果？另外，您是否也能描述一下影響。

So it's a multifamily when we talk about the real estate property at [Brunet]. So finance origination and these disposition, the sales infact is the main businesses. But as a result of the interest rate hike, the borrowers, unfortunately, the non-performing loan has increased. So bad debt has increased.

所以當我們談論房地產時，這是一個多戶家庭[布魯內特]。所以金融的起源和這些配置，銷售其實是主要業務。但不幸的是，由於升息，借款人的不良貸款增加。因此壞帳增加了。

So we have taken over these assets and renovate them and to keep them and wait until the market to recovery. That's what we are working on. And this is why, unfortunately, it is putting a pressure on the profitability.

因此，我們接管了這些資產並對其進行翻新並保留它們，等待市場復甦。這就是我們正在努力的方向。不幸的是，這就是為什麼它給盈利能力帶來了壓力。

So if the -- of course, the interest rate starts to come down, I'm sure we'll be able to enjoy the normalization of the businesses, but it may take a little while until we can enjoy such a normalization. But I think the worst time is almost over. So we hope to enjoy something that is more positive, but reposition, renovation and also the management, operations and also the disposition -- the timing is to be thoughtful.

因此，當然，如果利率開始下降，我相信我們將能夠享受業務的正常化，但我們可能需要一段時間才能享受這種正常化。但我認為最糟糕的時期已經過去了。所以我們希望享受一些更積極的東西，但重新定位、改造以及管理、營運和配置——時機要深思熟慮。

So with regard to multifamily assets, I think for the next 6 months to 12 months, the current situation is likely to persist. Private equity, they are small in size and already at fair value. The book value had risen, but there has been some correction. So we are trying to adjust ourselves to the fair value by way of carrying out an impairment.

因此，對於多戶家庭資產，我認為在未來6個月到12個月內，目前的情況可能會持續下去。私募股權，規模較小，已處於公允價值。帳面價值有所上升，但也出現了一些調整。因此，我們正嘗試以減損的方式調整自己的公允價值。

So in other words, we're working on the correctional adjustment. And this correction phase should be over done with by end of this calendar year. And thereafter, we would like to watch over the development of the interest rate in the United States as well as the economic stimulus, which may be introduced by President Trump. So that we'll be able to resume our activities in the investment so that we can be ready any time. So that is where we are in the United States.

換句話說，我們正在進行修正調整。這一修正階段應該在今年底前完成。接下來我們關注美國利率走勢以及川普總統可能推出的經濟刺激措施。這樣我們就能夠恢復投資活動，以便隨時做好準備。這就是我們在美國的處境。

If I could follow up or if I could ask you to follow-up, especially with regard to real estate. So the second quarter, if we were to cut out the three months, I suppose, [USD5 million] -- I think it is only limited to USD5 million.

我是否可以跟進，或者我是否可以請您跟進，特別是在房地產方面。因此，第二季度，如果我們要削減三個月，我想，[500 萬美元]——我認為僅限於 500 萬美元。

But just has been explained by Mr. Inoue just now. So if you were to think about the market risk, so you would like to, of course, maintain the current situation, the status quo. And do you think that you'll be -- do you think that the current level of profit generation is likely to continue from the next quarter and onwards?

但剛才井上先生已經解釋過了。因此，如果你要考慮市場風險，那麼你當然會希望維持目前的狀況、現狀。您是否認為目前的利潤水準可能會從下個季度及以後持續下去？

For the second half, in other words, October through to March, we do not foresee much of the upside coming from the United States. We are remaining to be defensive in the United States. So therefore, about USD250 million or so of profit is what we are foreseeing to be generating, but it will not reach to USD300 million, that is not our expectation.

對於下半年，換句話說，從十月到三月，我們預計美國不會有太大的上漲空間。我們在美國仍保持防禦性。因此，我們預計將產生約2.5億美元左右的利潤，但不會達到3億美元，這不是我們的預期。

So by achieving this -- in achieving this JPY390 billion of the profit for the entire group, we do not expect a large contribution coming from the US. That's what it is.

因此，透過實現這一目標——整個集團實現 3,900 億日圓的利潤，我們預計美國不會做出太大貢獻。就是這樣。

Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san.

大和證券，渡邊先生。

Yes. This is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities. On page 10, this is about improvement of corporate value through investors meeting. The feedback has been shared at Board meetings. So if you could share some of the major points. And if you could give us some updates on the current trend of achieving mid-term management plan.

是的。我是大和證券的渡邊。第10頁是關於透過投資者會議提高企業價值的內容。回饋已在董事會會議上分享。那麼您是否可以分享一些要點。您能否給我們一些有關實現中期管理計劃的當前趨勢的最新資訊？

So in the US, I did IR roadshows and executive officers have made some explanations, and we share that to the Board members. And finance, investment and operation, we are disclosing these three categories, and now investors have a better idea of disclosing in such a way.

因此，在美國，我進行了 IR 路演，執行官員做了一些解釋，我們將其分享給董事會成員。還有金融、投資、運營，我們正在揭露這三個類別，現在投資者對透過這樣的方式揭露有了更好的想法。

So with these three categories, we would like to evolve how we go about disclosing the information. So that was some comments made by external directors. So ORIX is very difficult to understand, but we want to make it easier to understand.

因此，對於這三個類別，我們希望改進我們揭露資訊的方式。這是外部董事的一些評論。所以歐力士很難理解，但我們想讓它更容易理解。

So as an effort in doing that, we will continue to disclose from these three category perspectives. Then we may foster the understanding of the market and external Board members also agreed. So that was discussed at today's meeting as well.

因此，作為一個努力，我們將繼續從這三個類別的角度進行揭露。然後我們可能會培養對市場的理解，外部董事會成員也同意。所以今天的會議上也討論了這個問題。

Okay. Thank you. So for the next mid-term management plan, what kind of KPIs will be introduced? Any additional comments.

好的。謝謝。那麼接下來的中期經營計劃，會引入什麼樣的KPI呢？任何補充意見。

So at today's Board meeting -- so when it comes to qualitative, well, in the past, we created numbers and how we go about achieving those numbers. So from external directors or outside directors, they did not like it. We should start from strategy, talent and deals and projects.

因此，在今天的董事會會議上，當談到定性時，嗯，過去，我們創造了數字以及我們如何實現這些數字。所以從外部董事或外部董事來說，他們不喜歡。我們應該從策略、人才、交易和專案開始。

So however, the project we have then in front of it, how should we treat them and process them and incorporate that into ORIX strategy. So we should make it upside down. That was the advice given.

那麼，擺在我們面前的這個項目，我們應該如何對待它們，如何處理它們，並將其納入歐力士的戰略中。所以我們應該把它顛倒過來。這就是給的建議。

So in the coming 5 or 10 years, what kind of direction are we proceeding?

那麼未來5年、10年，我們往什麼方向發展呢？

So that was the discussion made at today's meeting, but that was more at a qualitative discussion. So we need to also reflect the qualitative discussion into quantitative discussion and then come up with numbers in three years time or five years time.

這就是今天會議上的討論，但更多的是定性討論。所以我們還需要將定性討論轉化為定量討論，然後得出三年或五年後的數字。

So those will be the steps. So when it comes to target setting, it will be somewhere between January and March. And then come May, I believe it was May, when we make annual financial results, how we will be discussing and announcing what will be considered. So we still do not have numbers yet. So if you could give us a little more time.

這些就是步驟。因此，當涉及目標設定時，會在一月到三月之間。然後到了五月，我相信是五月，當我們公佈年度財務業績時，我們將如何討論和宣布將考慮什麼。所以我們還沒有數字。所以如果你能給我們多一點時間的話。

Sasaki-san, Nomura Securities.

佐佐木先生，野村證券。

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. So as to the outlook for the next year and beyond, I would like to hear your idea, Mr. Inoue, for this fiscal year to the guidance, I know that the progress has been pretty smooth, and roughly about 10% of ROE is likely to be achieved. And this 10% of ROE, if you were to raise it to the level of 11% or 15% with the current uncertainty that surrounds you and also making use of the capital may not that be easy, I suppose.

我是野村證券的佐佐木。那麼對於明年及以後的展望，井上先生，我想聽聽您的想法，對於本財年的指導，我知道進展相當順利，ROE 大約在 10% 左右。我想，這10%的ROE，如果你想把它提高到11%或15%的水平，在目前你周圍的不確定性和利用資本的情況下，可能不是那麼容易。

So Mr. Inoue, what is the image that you have in your mind? If you were to continue the way you are, do you think that you can achieve 15%? Or is there any other ways that you may have to explore in order to achieve this 11% or even beyond. So what is your strategy that you have in your mind?

那麼井上先生，您心目中的形像是怎麼樣的呢？如果你繼續這樣下去，你認為你能達到15%嗎？或者您是否需要探索其他方法才能實現 11% 甚至更高。那麼您心中的策略是什麼呢？

That is a very difficult question. But if we remain to be where we are as we are, I think it will prove to be very difficult for us to achieve 11%, of course, let alone 15%. Even if we were to repurchase our shares by [JPY550 billion] or even more, I don't think it would be possible for us to achieve such a level of ROE. So if we were to buy back a share to the extent of JPY1 trillion, we may be able to achieve that high and ROE, but that doesn't sound realistic.

這是一個非常困難的問題。但如果我們繼續維持現狀，我認為我們要達到11%是非常困難的，當然更不用說15%了。即使我們回購股票[5500億日圓]甚至更多，我認為我們也不可能達到這樣的ROE水準。因此，如果我們回購1兆日圓的股票，我們也許可以達到那麼高的ROE，但這聽起來不太現實。

So while we proceed with like M&A, like acquire a company that enjoys high profitability or to sell some of the businesses that kind of experiences, low ROE, or to gear up, perhaps. But in any case, I think we would have to raise the ROE and there are various different means and matters that we can utilize.

因此，當我們進行併購之類的事情時，例如收購一家具有高獲利能力的公司，或出售一些具有經驗、低股本回報率的業務，或者也許是為了做好準備。但無論如何，我認為我們必須提高ROE，我們可以利用各種不同的手段和事項。

But currently, if we remain to be as we are and who we are, then I don't think it is difficult to achieve 11% and beyond. So this is why we may have to continue to replace or recycle our capital and assets. That has to be continued. So if we remain to be where we are, 11%, maybe achievable. But going beyond the 11% to like 13% or 15% is not possible.

但目前，如果我們維持現狀，維持現狀，那麼我認為要達到11%以上並不困難。所以這就是為什麼我們可能不得不繼續更換或回收我們的資本和資產。這必須繼續下去。因此，如果我們維持現狀，11% 或許是可以實現的。但超越 11% 達到 13% 或 15% 是不可能的。

So if you could follow up by sharing one piece of information. So are you thinking about something that is different from the past, and that could be like M&A or to divest low ROE company? You have given us some clue. But if you were to think about the business management from next year onwards, out of those three options that you have mentioned, which one, in fact, you would put the priority on? Which one do you think that you would like to focus on?

因此，如果您可以透過分享一條訊息來跟進。那麼您是否正在考慮與過去不同的事情，例如併購或剝離低股本回報率公司？你給了我們一些線索。但如果讓你思考明年以後的經營管理，你提到的這三個選項中，你實際上會優先考慮哪一個呢？您認為您想重點關注哪一項？

Well, we would like to, of course, expand our asset management business. But even if you were to expand the asset management business, it may be limited to like if it was to be AUM or JPY1 trillion, JPY2 trillion, that the return will be very limited.

嗯，我們當然希望擴大我們的資產管理業務。但即使你把資產管理業務做大，可能也僅限於像AUM或1兆日圓、2兆日圓那樣，回報就非常有限了。

Now we have JPY75 trillion or so, but we need to expand it to JPY100 trillion and even beyond. And this is something that we need to achieve in one or two years time. And as a matter of fact, to the third-party investors, having been entrusted with their capital, in other words expanding the AUM at the asset manager.

現在我們有75兆日圓左右，但我們需要擴大到100兆日圓甚至更多。這是我們需要在一兩年內實現的目標。事實上，對於第三方投資者來說，他們的資金被委託，或者說擴大了資產管理公司的AUM。

In other words, we really want to be acquire an asset manager. But at the moment, the price is not right. So this is why if we are carrying out the negotiation right now, and if we are success -- if we succeed in acquiring it, we may be able to expand our AUM.

換句話說，我們真的想收購一家資產管理公司。但目前來看，價格並不合適。因此，這就是為什麼如果我們現在正在進行談判，如果我們成功——如果我們成功收購它，我們也許能夠擴大我們的資產管理規模。

And also, one other business is aircrafts. Currently, we have 200 in our fleet. But 150, of course, aircraft are making use of our investors' money. So we want to, of course, raise it to like 200 and even beyond. So this is not going to be a short-term solution. But if we were to pursue this way, the principal investment can be contained by making use of the third-party's capital money. I think that will be the first step.

此外，另一項業務是飛機。目前，我們的機隊有 200 架。但當然，有 150 架飛機正在使用我們投資者的資金。所以我們當然希望將其提高到 200 左右甚至更高。因此，這不會是短期解決方案。但如果按照這種方式，利用第三方的資金就可以控製本金投資。我認為這將是第一步。

And as we have said, maybe to sell off some of the low ROA company and to acquire a high ROA company. On the other hand, the businesses on the other hand. So that will be my effort in the next -- our prime mission in the next one to two years.

正如我們所說，也許可以出售一些低資產回報率的公司並收購一家高資產回報率的公司。一方面是企業，另一方面是企業。所以這將是我接下來的努力——我們未來一兩年的首要任務。

Mizuho Securities, Sakamaki-san.

瑞穗證券，坂卷先生。

Yes. I am Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities. I have one question. So the asset, the credit status of your assets, I would like to confirm. So data book on page 27 or 28. Using this, if you could respond. That will be helpful.

是的。我是瑞穗證券的坂卷。我有一個問題。那麼資產，你資產的信用狀況，我想確認一下。數據手冊第 27 或 28 頁。如果你能回應的話，就用這個。這會有幫助的。

So the concerns that I have are the allowance for the credit loss from end of June, we can see the trend. But as you explained in the US, the credit, you're very prudent in provisioning and perhaps there are some concerns. So why did your concern come down since then?

所以我擔心的是從6月底開始的信用損失準備金，我們可以看到趨勢。但正如您在美國所解釋的，信貸方面，您在供應方面非常謹慎，也許存在一些擔憂。那為什麼從那時起你的擔憂就減少了呢？

So this is Yamamoto speaking, if I may. So I think you're looking at the supplementary materials for the credit loss provisioning on page 28. So this is the number or this is the pace that you're looking at?

如果可以的話，這是山本先生的發言。所以我認為您正在查看第 28 頁的信用損失準備金的補充資料。這就是您正在查看的數字或速度？

Yes. Correct.

是的。正確的。

So here, as Inoue-san mentioned, in the US, so mid cap market, the credit situation, of course, we cannot be optimistic. So where we are investing in some of the loans, we are provisioning. We are being conservative and we reassess. So that is the reason.

因此，正如井上先生所提到的，在美國，中型股市場，信貸狀況當然不能樂觀。因此，當我們投資一些貸款時，我們就會提供撥備。我們是保守的，我們會重新評估。這就是原因。

So the credit loss, of course, it is not increasing significantly and also non-performing loan under management, we have been controlling and we have been picking up signs to deal with this. But rather, in terms of our business direction, the market or the environment has not come back so that we can be proactive in getting these credit.

當然，信用損失並沒有大幅增加，不良貸款也在管理之下，我們一直在控制，我們一直在尋找應對這一問題的跡象。相反，就我們的業務方向而言，市場或環境還沒有回來，所以我們可以積極地獲得這些信用。

Okay. Understood. So the provisioning for credit loss from end of June, it's coming down. So were there drawdowns and where was it?

好的。明白了。因此，從六月底開始，信用損失準備金正在下降。那麼是否存在回撤以及回撤在哪裡？

Well, the general provisioning, total asset in the US is coming down and how we are reducing this. We are using CLO or selling fund of loan assets and also ORIX USA Credit. The profitability is improving, and this is because we're lighter in the balance sheet. So that is why general provisioning has been drawn down.

嗯，美國的整體準備金、總資產正在下降，以及我們如何減少這種下降。我們正在使用 CLO 或出售貸款資產基金以及 ORIX USA Credit。獲利能力正在改善，這是因為我們的資產負債表變得更輕了。這就是一般準備金被削減的原因。

Niwa-san, Citi Securities.

丹羽先生，花旗證券。

This is Niwa speaking from Citi Securities. So I hope you can hear my voice. As to the investment pipeline, I have some questions. And that is page 45 of your deck and if you could be so kind enough to allow me to understand how to interpret this.

我是花旗證券的丹羽先生。所以我希望你能聽到我的聲音。關於投資管道，我有一些問題。這是你的牌組的第 45 頁，請容許我理解如何解釋這一點。

So I don't think there has been any kind of major changes by looking at this. I suppose you are building in terms of the disclosure policy, you're just incorporating those that you can be absolutely sure of. But do you think that we could be a little more optimistic. If you could give us some more color to what has been reflected onto this page.

因此，我認為從這一點來看，並沒有發生任何重大變化。我想您正在根據披露政策進行構建，您只是將那些您可以絕對確定的內容納入其中。但你認為我們可以更樂觀一點嗎？如果您能為我們提供更多關於此頁面上反映的內容的資訊。

So in specific terms, we will not be able to share anything at this point in time. Just to give you an example, Avolon, for example. So 70%, in fact, is owned by Bohai right now, but we may be able to acquire the 70% from Bohai so far as Avolon's stake is concerned or to acquire asset manager in the United States or here in Japan, private equity can be built up more here in Japan. So these are some of the conversation that is underway.

因此，具體而言，我們目前無法分享任何內容。舉個例子，比如Avolon。所以現在70%的股份其實是由渤海控股持有，但是就Avolon的股份而言，我們或許可以收購渤海控股的70%，或是收購美國或日本的資產管理公司，私募股權可以在日本這裡建立更多。這些是正在進行的一些對話。

So in total, although, we have been sharing that we may be spending as much as JPY700 billion. But if you were to build all those up, we may be spending about JPY1 trillion or even more. So this is why we will not be spending that much, which means that we will remain to be quite selective. So that would be contributed to the enhancement of ROE. So that is continued. It is still underway.

因此，儘管如此，我們一直在分享我們可能花費多達 7000 億日元。但如果把所有這些加起來，我們可能會花費約 1 兆日元甚至更多。所以這就是為什麼我們不會花那麼多錢，這意味著我們將保持相當的選擇性。這將有助於ROE的提高。這樣就繼續了。目前仍在進行中。

But if it becomes a more of a sure deal, then we may be able to disclose it. But I'm terrificaly sorry for this, but because of the non-confidentiality -- non-disclosure agreement, we will not be able to share anything anymore.

但如果它變得更加確定，那麼我們也許可以披露它。但我對此感到非常抱歉，但由於非保密協議，我們將無法再分享任何內容。

But it is not just a thing at the pipeline. But while we would acquire some of the assets, but that will be recycling. So therefore, JPY700 billion of acquisition and maybe JPY1 trillion or close to that much of divestment. So if you could allow me to limit my explanation to that.

但這不僅僅是一個正在醞釀中的事情。雖然我們會收購一些資產，但這將是回收。因此，需要 7,000 億日圓的收購，也許還有 1 兆日圓或接近這筆金額的撤資。所以請容許我將我的解釋限制於此。

So expansion of new business domain. So digging down deeper in the existing business kind of domain, that I understand because you have a good level of expertise. But how about the new domain, the business domain?

從而拓展新的業務領域。因此，在現有的業務領域進行更深入的挖掘，我理解，因為您擁有良好的專業知識水平。但是新的領域，也就是業務領域呢？

So when we talk about new business domain, so we mean by -- you mean by non-domain that belongs to -- that is non-existing?

因此，當我們談論新的業務領域時，我們的意思是—您的意思是屬於不存在的非領域？

Well, we do not describe between non-domain because we go from transaction by transaction. It just so happens that this -- one of the transaction made all into like new domain such as the medical area. Some discussion is underway.

好吧，我們不會在非域之間進行描述，因為我們是逐一交易進行的。碰巧的是，其中一項交易全部進入了新領域，例如醫療領域。一些討論正在進行中。

I don't know whether you can describe it to be a new domain because you do not segregate new to old or existing. So the private equity, M&A, there are several kind of deals that are under discussion right now.

我不知道您是否可以將其描述為一個新網域，因為您沒有將新網域與舊網域或現有網域隔離。因此，私募股權、併購等多種交易目前正在討論中。

MUFG Securities, Takemura-san.

三菱日聯證券，竹村先生。

Yes. This is Takemura speaking. Thank you very much for this opportunity. I have one question. So going forward, the capital gain. Your ideas towards generating capital gains is my question. In the first half, there was a progress in profit and dividend is 39%. So that's your DPS this time around.

是的。我是竹村。非常感謝您給我這個機會。我有一個問題。所以展望未來，資本利得。我的問題是你對產生資本利得的想法。上半年獲利有所進步，股利率為39%。這就是你這次的 DPS。

So like last term, if a capital gain is skewed, then perhaps dividend will fluctuate. So which means that going forward, capital gains you will be leveling between first half and second half. Is that your idea against the first half profit, it's 39%. So will you be applying that throughout the year?

因此，就像上學期一樣，如果資本利得傾斜，那麼股息可能會波動。因此，這意味著展望未來，資本利得將在上半年和下半年之間趨於平衡。這是你的想法，上半年利潤是 39%。那麼你會全年應用它嗎？

Well, this time in the first half, yes, profit against that, 39%. So with 33% in the previous term, the interim dividend, it was the same. But if we raise to 39% and then same dividend as last year interim dividend, I think everyone will be mad. So for the first time, we used the number of first half and multiplied by 39%, and it's the first time that we have carried this out.

嗯，上半年的這一次，是的，獲利了 39%。所以和上一期的中期股利33%是一樣的。但如果我們提高到39%，然後與去年中期股息相同，我想每個人都會生氣。所以我們第一次用上半年的數字，乘以39%，這是我們第一次做。

So 39% of first half or second half?

那麼上半場還是下半場的39%？

Yes. That's what we need to continue going forward. Then what concerns me is, okay, first half is already okay, but what's going to happen if we don't achieve the second half. So that is why in order to avoid a discussion, we are committed in achieving this JPY390 billion. So 39% against the first half. This idea will continue down the road.

是的。這就是我們需要繼續前進的。那麼我關心的是，好吧，上半場已經可以了，但是如果我們下半場達不到的話會發生什麼。因此，為了避免爭論，我們致力於實現這3900億日圓。上半場的得分為 39%。這個想法將繼續下去。

Tsujino-san, Bank of America.

辻野先生，美國銀行。

So aircraft leasing, I have a question. So the price of aircraft is rising. So AerCap earnings call, for example. So in other words, I think there's about 20%-some in terms of the gains on sales. So at Avolon, I know that there is a discrepancy in terms of the closing timing by one month or so, but there has been some gains on sales.

那麼飛機租賃，我有一個問題。所以飛機的價格不斷上漲。例如，AerCap 的財報電話會議。換句話說，我認為銷售收益大約有 20%。因此，在 Avolon，我知道成交時間有一個月左右的差異，但銷售額有所成長。

But on the part of Avolon, 59 aircraft will now schedule to be divested -- disposed. So at ORIX Aviation or at Avolon, so what kind of margin are you enjoying for the aircraft that you have sold? Any kind of expectations that you have or can we expect more profits to be generated?

但就 Avolon 而言，現在將計劃剝離或處置 59 架飛機。那麼，在歐力士航空或阿沃隆，您所售飛機的利潤率是多少？您有什麼期望或我們可以期望產生更多利潤嗎？

So Avolon, the reason why we are selling more is because the low-spread aircraft. We should be selling them faster. That is our policy right now. So ROE, ROA of Avolon is not that good as ORIX Aviation. We're not expecting Avolon to reach the standard of ORIX Aviation, but we have been giving out the guidance.

所以Avolon，我們之所以賣得更多，是因為飛機的價差低。我們應該更快地出售它們。這就是我們現在的政策。所以Avolon的ROE、ROA不如歐力士航空。我們並不期望 Avolon 能夠達到歐力士航空的標準，但我們已經給了指導。

So for 50 or so aircraft, whether we'll be able to enjoy a large amount of capital gain, we are not sure. But I don't think there will be a case whereby we'll be generating capital loss. So among the airline leasing, it is one of the best, ORIX Aviation is.

所以對於50架左右的飛機，我們是否能夠享受大量的資本收益，我們不確定。但我認為我們不會產生資本損失。所以在航空公司租賃中，歐力士航空是最好的之一。

So this is why we have been giving out a strict guidance to Avolon, that is to measure up to the expected standards. But if they are going to be purchasing any new aircraft, for example, ORIX Aviation, so that would be a holding period of one to two years. And so therefore, to enjoy a capital gain of about 10% to 20% is expected. I hope this answers your question.

所以這就是為什麼我們一直對Avolon給予嚴格的指導，就是要達到預期的標準。但如果他們要購買任何新飛機，例如歐力士航空，那麼持有期將是一到兩年。因此，預計可享受約10%至20%的資本利得。我希望這能回答你的問題。

So it is almost time for us to finish off this session. So I would like to conclude this Q&A for now. So I'd like to ask Mr. Inoue to share his closing remarks.

現在我們已經快要結束本次會議了。所以我想暫時結束這個問答。所以我想請井上先生做總結發言。

So for the first half, well, I think we have trended quite well. But the market remains to be uncertain. So I will not be able to say out loud that we are okay for the full year by 100%.

所以在上半場，我認為我們的趨勢很好。但市場仍存在不確定性。因此，我無法大聲地說我們全年 100% 都還好。

But at the moment we have confidence in achieving JPY390 billion for the full year. So please continue to watch over the development warmly that is. So with this, we'd like to conclude the second quarter result briefing for ORIX. Thank you very much for your participation today.

但目前我們有信心全年實現3900億日圓。所以也請大家繼續熱情關注事態的發展。至此，我們就結束了歐力士第二季業績發表會。非常感謝您今天的參與。

Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.

本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。口譯員由贊助本次活動的公司提供。