ORIX Corp (IX) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(inaudible) conference of ORIX Corporation (inaudible) the consolidated fiscal year ended March 31, 2024. My name is Hitomaro Yano from Investor Relations (inaudible) I will be the master of ceremony today. Thank you. (inaudible) You will first of all hear from Mr. Yamamoto and then followed by presentation by explanation by Mr. Inoue and then Q&A session. The whole program should take approximately 1 hour. Mr. Yamamoto the floor is yours.

（聽不清楚）歐力士公司會議（聽不清楚）截至 2024 年 3 月 31 日的合併財政年度。謝謝。 （聽不清楚）您將首先聽到山本先生的發言，然後是井上先生的介紹和解釋，然後是問答環節。整個計劃大約需要 1 小時。山本先生，請發言。

Thank you for the introduction. I'm Kazuki Yamamoto, Operating Officer in charge of Corporate Planning and IR department. I'd like to make use of the deck in front to provide you with FY '24 March end full year earnings briefing.

謝謝你的介紹。我是 Kazuki Yamamoto，負責企業規劃和 IR 部門的營運長。我想利用前面的平台向您提供 3 月 24 日財年末的全年收益簡報。

So please turn to Page 2. So the right-hand side of the Page 2 shows or its record high profit for the year FY '24 March end with net income of JPY 346.1 billion, and this is a year-on-year increase of JPY 55.8 billion, up 19%. ROE rose to 9.2%. Now quarterly trends in net income is shown on the right. Q4 net income was JPY 126.9 billion. This is ORIX's highest quarterly net profit figure to date, even higher than the '22 fiscal year March end when we sold Yayoi, the profit was posted by investment gains from the sales process taking over described an excess from the domestic PE investment.

所以請翻到第 2 頁。股本回報率升至 9.2%。現在，淨利潤的季度趨勢顯示在右邊。第四季淨利為 1,269 億日圓。這是歐力士迄今為止最高的季度淨利潤數據，甚至高於我們出售彌生時的22財年3月末，該利潤是通過接管銷售過程中的投資收益來公佈的，說明了來自國內PE投資的超額部分。

Please turn to the 3 segment profit rose 22% year-over-year to JPY 494.2 billion. As shown on the right-hand quarterly graph, FY '24 March ended tail heavy in terms of exit as initially forecasted. In other words, we were able to maintain a consistent uptrend in base profits and investment gains over the fiscal year as a result.

請看第3部門利潤年增22%至4,942億日圓。如右側季度圖表所示，3 月 24 日財年結束時退出情況如最初預測的那樣嚴重。換句話說，我們能夠在本財年維持基本利潤和投資收益的持續上升趨勢。

Next, please look at the full year graph on the left-hand side. Base profits were up 14% year-over-year to JPY 367.6 billion, which also represents a new record high. Profit recovery in the facility operations and the concession business, thanks to higher inbound tourism as well as growth in investment income in the insurance segment were the main reasons behind growth in base profit. The likely investment gains were also up 54% year-over-year to JPY 126.5 billion, while we have been maintaining an average of JPY 100 billion over the past 5 years, thanks to ongoing capital recycling in our asset portfolio, including the real estate and domestic PE businesses and the portion of ORIX credit shares, we exceeded average this time with JPY 126.5 billion of gain.

接下來，請看左側的全年圖表。基本利潤年增14%至3,676億日元，也創歷史新高。由於入境旅遊業的增加以及保險部門投資收入的增長，設施運營和特許經營業務的利潤復甦是基本利潤增長的主要原因。可能的投資收益也年增 54%，達到 1,265 億日元，而過去 5 年我們一直保持平均 1,000 億日元，這要歸功於我們資產組合（包括房地產）的持續資本回收以及國內PE業務和歐力士信用股份金額，這次我們以1,265億日圓的收益超過平均水準。

Note that from the fourth quarter, we have reclassified earnings from the investment in affiliates accounting to either equity method investments of goodwill, depending on the type of asset. As a result, we have retroactively restated both base profits and investment gains.

請注意，從第四季度開始，我們根據資產類型，將附屬公司會計投資的收益重新分類為權益法商譽投資。因此，我們追溯重述了基本利潤和投資收益。

Next, please turn to Page 4 and 5 for the breakdown of segment profits and segment assets. Detailed information can be found further back in the presentation from Page 20 onwards. Please take a look after. I'll just give a brief overview of the highlights here. First, the Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment profits were up JPY 6.2 billion to JPY 81.2 billion. In Corporate Financial Services, profits were up as fee businesses were solid, and M&A brokerage businesses also contributed to profits.

接下來，請參閱第4頁和第5頁以了解分部利潤和分部資產的明細。詳細資訊可以在第 20 頁以後的簡報中找到。請多多關照。我將在這裡簡要概述一下重點內容。首先，企業金融服務和維修租賃部門的利潤增加了 62 億日圓，達到 812 億日圓。企業金融服務方面，由於手續費業務穩健，利潤成長，併購經紀業務也貢獻了利潤。

In the auto unit, strong rental demand for rental cars and ongoing high prices in the used car market helped the business achieve its third consecutive year of record high profit. Segment assets were up by JPY 38.3 billion to JPY 1.5523 trillion, as asset increase in the Corporate Financial Services unit as it undertook a variety of financing deals while remaining careful in selecting new business. Assets also increased in the auto unit thanks to rental car fleet replacement.

汽車業務方面，強勁的租車需求和二手車市場持續高價幫助該業務連續第三年實現創紀錄的高利潤。企業金融服務部門在進行各種融資交易的同時，在選擇新業務時保持謹慎，因此資產增加，部門資產增加了383億日元，達到1.5523萬億日元。由於租賃車隊的更換，汽車部門的資產也有所增加。

Next is the Real Estate segment. Segment profits were up JPY 14.3 billion to JPY 65.8 billion. The real estate investment in facilities operations saw profits rise as in on tourism demand led to strong earnings at the hotels and inns. In addition, we booked gains on the sale of a large property in Q3. In fact the unit secured profits in line with the previous fiscal year, aided by robust sales of high-margin conducts. Segment assets were up. As -- although still being selective, we state investment in facilities operations unit and continue to develop new logistics facilities while actively selling properties as part of capital recycling.

接下來是房地產領域。部門利潤增加 143 億日圓至 658 億日圓。設施運營的房地產投資帶來了利潤增長，因為旅遊需求導致酒店和旅館的強勁收入。此外，我們在第三季出售一處大型房產時獲得了收益。事實上，由於高利潤產品的強勁銷售，該部門的利潤與上一財年持平。分部資產上升。儘管仍然是選擇性的，但我們對設施營運部門進行了投資，並繼續開發新的物流設施，同時積極出售房產作為資本回收的一部分。

[DKL] assets increased by JPY 59.1 billion as compared to '23 March end also by the acquisition of a very well situated site for large-scale development. We continue to operate this segment based on the business model of acquiring promising properties and then monetizing them after adding value.

與 3 月 23 日相比，[DKL] 資產增加了 591 億日元，這也是由於收購了地理位置優越的大規模開發場地。我們繼續基於收購有前景的房產，然後在增值後將其貨幣化的商業模式來運營該部門。

Next is the PE investment and Concession segment. Segment profits were up sharply by JPY 40.5 billion to JPY 43.4 billion. Although ORIX booked costs associated with the purely financial stake in Toshiba, we saw 2 PE industries, including (inaudible) in second half. This has a start contribution to base profits from DHC acquired last year led to strong upswing in segment profit.

接下來是私募股權投資和特許經營部分。部門利潤大幅增加 405 億日元，達到 434 億日圓。儘管歐力士記入了與東芝純財務股權相關的成本，但我們看到了 2 個 PE 行業，包括下半年的（聽不清楚）。這對去年收購的 DHC 的基本利潤做出了初步貢獻，導致部門利潤強勁增長。

The Concession unit returned to profit on a full year basis for the first time since the pandemic aided by a sharp rise in earnings following growth in international passengers, thanks to a strong inbound tourism. Segment assets were up by JPY 167.4 billion, net versus end March end of '23, although assets rose due to JPY 200 billion stake in Toshiba. We had several exits from industries.

由於入境旅遊業強勁，國際旅客數量增長，收入大幅增長，特許經營部門自疫情爆發以來首次全年恢復盈利。與 2023 年 3 月底相比，該部門資產淨值增加 1,674 億日元，儘管資產增加是由於持有東芝 2,000 億日元的股份。我們曾多次退出業界。

Environment Energy segment profits were down 9% year-on-year to JPY 29.9 billion. Domestic business secured profit in line with the year-earlier level despite some quarterly fluctuations owing to the impact of (inaudible) cap of our solar power. Overseas profits were down year-on-year, owing to elevated euro interest rates and the absence of a year earlier investment gains. However, electricity sales rose due to steady expansion in capacity at Elawan.

環境能源部門利潤年減9%至299億日圓。儘管受太陽能發電（聽不清楚）上限的影響，國內業務的利潤出現了一些季度波動，但仍確保利潤與去年同期持平。由於歐元利率上升以及缺乏上年投資收益，海外利潤較去年同期下降。然而，由於 Elawan 發電容量的穩定擴張，售電量有所成長。

Segment assets were up JPY 73.4 billion versus end of March FY '23 owing mainly to changes in ForEx. Assets in real estate investment and concession and the emergent energy segments are each less than JPY 1 trillion, and we remain aware of maintaining balance between 2 segments.

與 2023 財年 3 月底相比，該部門資產增加了 734 億日圓，這主要是由於外匯的變化。房地產投資和特許經營以及新興能源領域的資產均不到 1 兆日元，我們仍然意識到保持兩個領域之間的平衡。

Insurance segment assets were up 11% year-on-year to JPY 70 billion. Profits were up mainly driven by lower corporate related payout expenses versus the prior year and higher investment income aided by yen depreciation and high interest rates. Insurance premium income is also rising steadily with whole life insurance being marketed more aggressively.

保險部門資產年增11%至700億日圓。利潤成長的主要原因是企業相關支出較前一年減少，以及日圓貶值和高利率推動投資收入增加。壽險保費收入穩定成長，終身壽險行銷更加積極。

Segment assets were up by JPY 258.9 billion versus end FY '23 March, reflecting the impact of FX and increase in investment securities. Banking credit profits were up JPY 59.1 billion to JPY 96.7 billion.

與 3 月 23 日財政年度末相比，該部門資產增加了 2,589 億日元，反映了外匯和投資證券增加的影響。銀行信貸利潤增加 591 億日圓，達到 967 億日圓。

In the credit business, ORIX sold 66% of share to NTT DOCOMO to create joint venture. This transaction resulted in investment gains and variation gains were JPY 57 billion. In banking, interest income from real estate investment loans grew due to higher long-term interest rates with only marginal increases in deposit related expenses, profits were up year-on-year. Higher trust fees also contributed resulting from ORIX Bank's focus on growing trust assets.

在信貸業務方面，歐力士將66%的股份出售給NTT DOCOMO，成立合資公司。此交易帶來的投資收益和變動收益為570億日圓。銀行業方面，由於長期利率上升，房地產投資貸款利息收入有所增長，存款相關費用僅小幅增長，利潤同比增長。由於歐力士銀行專注於增加信託資產，信託費用也有所上升。

Segment assets rose JPY 34.2 billion, reflecting higher lending in the merchant banking business in ORIX Bank. Based on the stake, ORIX Credit is now considered an affiliate rather than a consolidated subsidiary. Total assets for banking and credit and insurance segments are about JPY 5 trillion. This represents 37% of our [total] assets. And we continue to manage this ratio with an awareness of the quality of insurance and banking related assets and overall balance within the firm.

部門資產增加 342 億日元，反映歐力士銀行商業銀行業務貸款增加。根據股權，歐力士信貸現在被視為附屬公司而不是合併子公司。銀行、信貸和保險部​​門的總資產約為5兆日圓。這占我們[總]資產的37%。我們繼續透過對保險和銀行相關資產品質以及公司內部整體平衡的認識來管理這一比率。

Next is Aircraft and Ships segment. Profit rose 44% year-on-year to JPY 26.8 billion. In aircraft leasing, passenger demand in the U.S. and Europe reached record high levels. Recovery in airline earnings and the tight supply demand for aircraft led to an increase in both leasing income and gains on the sales of aircraft listed to higher profit year-on-year.

接下來是飛機和船舶部門。利潤年增44%至268億日圓。在飛機租賃方面，美國和歐洲的乘客需求達到歷史新高。航空公司獲利的復甦以及飛機供應需求的緊張導致租賃收入和利潤較高的飛機銷售收益同比增長。

In the Ships business, profits were in line with our target, but lower year-on-year, owing to proactive sales of owned vessels a year ago when prices were favorable. At the end of February, we acquired Santoku Senpaku, which will begin to contribute to profits in fiscal year '25 March on a 3-month lag. At Avolon, hedging costs rose owing to elevated U.S. dollar interest rates. Growth in lease revenues fueled by a rebound in passenger demand helped the firm achieve profitability on a full year basis for the first time since the pandemic.

船舶業務方面，利潤符合我們的目標，但同比下降，原因是一年前價格有利時積極出售自有船舶。 2月底，我們收購了Santoku Senpaku，該公司將在3月25日財年開始貢獻利潤，落後3個月。在 Avolon，由於美元利率上升，對沖成本上升。客運需求反彈推動租賃收入成長，幫助該公司自大流行以來首次實現全年獲利。

Segment assets were up JPY 315.5 billion. versus the end of FY '23, March, reaching slightly more than JPY 1 trillion. This reflects aircraft purchases and aircraft leasing in addition to Santoku Senpaku, which owns 67 vessels as a consolidated subsidiary.

部門資產增加3,155億日圓。與 23 財年 3 月底相比，略高於 1 兆日圓。這反映了除 Santoku Senpaku 之外的飛機購買和飛機租賃，Santoku Senpaku 作為合併子公司擁有 67 艘船舶。

ORIX USA segment profit was declined by 65% year-on-year to JPY 17.3 billion. In Q4, OCU booked losses associated with the draw from an investee as well as preventative allowances impairments based on conservative view, risk from long-term inflation and EBIT interest rates. The resulted segment loss was JPY 10.5 billion for the first -- fourth quarter alone. Segment assets were up by JPY 74.3 billion, reflecting the substantial impact of a weaker yen, we remain price-sensitive and selective with new deals. And through the sales of assets in the real estate business, installment assets, excluding FX impact were down by JPY 17.2 billion versus the end of the prior year.

歐力士美國部門獲利年減65%至173億日圓。第四季度，基於保守觀點、長期通膨風險和息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 風險，OCU 計入了與被投資方提取相關的損失以及預防性準備金減損。光是第一季至第四季的部門虧損就達 105 億日圓。分部資產增加 743 億日圓，反映出日圓貶值的重大影響，我們仍對價格敏感且選擇性地進行新交易。透過房地產業務的資產出售，排除匯率影響的分期付款資產較上年末減少了 172 億日圓。

ORIX Europe segment profit were down 30% to JPY 28.6 billion. In FY '23, March and '22 March, OCU booked JPY 10 billion or more in performance fees, but this now declined substantially in FY '24 March and higher currency hedging costs resulting from writing in interest rates led to lower profits year-on-year.

歐力士歐洲部門獲利下降 30%，至 286 億日圓。在23 財年、3 月和3 月22 日，OCU 記入了100 億日圓或更多的業績費用，但現在在3 月24 財年大幅下降，並且由於寫入利率而導致貨幣對沖成本上升，導致利潤年減-年。

In the mainstay asset management business assets, at EUR 324 billion, a new record high at the end of FY '24 March, buoyed by strong equity market and management fees. Segment assets were essentially flat after excluding the impact of yen depreciation.

受強勁股市和管理費的推動，截至 3 月 24 財年末，主要資產管理業務資產達到 3,240 億歐元，創下歷史新高。剔除日圓貶值的影響後，分部資產基本持平。

Finally, the Asia and Australia segment profit were down 2% year-on-year to JPY 34.3 billion. Profits were flat versus a year ago, thanks to growth in lease and lending assets in South Korea, Australia, India and other countries from new executions, gains from the sale of an investee during Q4 also contributed.

最後，亞洲和澳洲業務利潤年減2%至343億日圓。利潤與去年同期持平，得益於韓國、澳洲、印度和其他國家新執行的租賃和貸款資產的成長，第四季度出售被投資公司的收益也有所貢獻。

Segment assets were up JPY 192.4 billion as a result of favorable new lease executions in ASEAN countries and India and the impact from FX changes. We maintain a cautious stance on investments in Greater China.

由於東協國家和印度有利的新租賃執行以及匯率變化的影響，該部門資產增加了 1,924 億日圓。我們對大中華區的投資保持謹慎態度。

The Aircraft and Ships and the U.S., Europe and Asia segments comprise a total of 22% of segment profits and 34% of segment assets. We will continue to carefully monitor economic and financial trends in each country.

飛機和船舶部門以及美國、歐洲和亞洲部門總共佔部門利潤的22%和部門資產的34%。我們將繼續密切關注各國經濟金融動向。

This concludes my explanation about FY '24 March full year results. Next, we would like to hand over to our CEO, Mr. Inoue. Please begin.

我對 3 月 24 日財政年度全年業績的解釋到此結束。接下來請我們的執行長井上先生發言。請開始。

Good afternoon. This is ORIX CEO, Makoto Inoue. Let me begin from Page 6. For '24 March end, ORIX achieved pretax profits of JPY 470 billion and a 19% increase in net income to JPY 346.1 billion. This represents an achievement 105% of our announced net income target. EPS was JPY 299.

午安.我是歐力士執行長井上誠。讓我從第6頁開始。這意味著我們已經實現了宣布的淨利潤目標的 105%。每股收益為 299 日圓。

Now in line with our policy of paying a dividend per share of either 33% of net income or last year's EPS of JPY 85.6 whichever is higher, we will pay a full year dividend per share of JPY 98.6 for March end of 2024. Now since we paid an interim dividend of JPY 42.8 per share, the year-end dividend will be JPY 55.8 per share. ROE for FY '24 March end was 9.2%.

現在，根據我們支付淨利潤 33% 或去年 EPS 85.6 日元（以較高者為準）的每股股息政策，我們將在 2024 年 3 月底支付每股 98.6 日元的全年股息。股42.8日圓，年末股利每股55.8日圓。 3 月 24 日財政年度的股本回報率為 9.2%。

Now please turn to Pages 7 and 8. FY '25 March end is the final year of the 3-year midterm outlook that we introduced 3 years ago. We initially forecast net income of JPY 440 billion for the final year, which we revised downward to JPY 400 billion last fiscal year in light of market conditions at the time. But today, we now target FY '25 March end net income of JPY 390 billion.

現在請翻到第 7 頁和第 8 頁。我們最初預測最後一年的淨利潤為 4,400 億日元，根據當時的市場狀況，我們將上一財年的淨利潤下調至 4,000 億日元。但今天，我們現在的目標是 3 月 25 日財年末淨利為 3,900 億日圓。

Now this translates to an ROE of 9.6%. Although improving our ROE is a major challenge for ORIX. Unfortunately, I will have to ask for your patience for another year for us to achieve our goal of ROE exceeding 10%, a target of JPY 390 billion net income, so just 4.7% year-over-year growth for FY March end '25.

現在這相當於 9.6% 的 ROE。雖然提高ROE對歐力士來說是一個重大挑戰。不幸的是，我將不得不請求您再耐心等待一年，以便我們實現股本回報率超過10% 的目標，即淨利潤3,900 億日元的目標，因此25 年3 月底的財年同比增長率僅為4.7% 。

Now please turn to Page 9. There are 3 main reasons for our decision to lower the profit target from JPY 400 billion to JPY 390 billion. Thus, it may take some additional time before a full recovery in ORIX USA earnings because we foresee high credit costs to persist as well as elevated interest rates to continue as inflation remains doubly high. Second, the MICE-IR project has begun in earnest, resulting in capital outflows that may not produce profits for some time and upfront cost outlays.

現在請翻到第9頁。因此，歐力士美國的獲利可能需要一些額外的時間才能完全恢復，因為我們預計信貸成本將持續居高不下，並且由於通膨仍然處於雙倍高位，利率將持續上升。其次，MICE-IR計畫已正式啟動，導致可能在一段時間內無法產生利潤的資本外流和前期成本支出。

Now in addition, we see a lack of visibility caused by political divisions owing to expansion in international conflicts, Chinese economic sluggishness to extend, coupled with Japan's sinking position globally, owing to historic yen depreciation and the unleasable impact of high [branches] on the economy. For these reasons, we have decided to conservative target JPY 390 billion for the coming fiscal year. However, this JPY 390 billion is, of course, just a minimum target. And internally, we maintain our goal to exceed net profit of JPY 400 billion.

此外，我們還看到，國際衝突擴大、中國經濟持續低迷、日本因日元歷史性貶值而導致的全球地位下降以及高風險對日本經濟的不可釋放的影響，導致政治分歧導致缺乏能見度。基於這些原因，我們決定將下一財政年度的目標保守為 3,900 億日圓。不過，這3900億日圓當然只是一個最低目標。在內部，我們維持淨利潤超過 4,000 億日圓的目標。

Now please turn to Page 10. I will outline the measures we plan to take to reach JPY 390 billion in net profit later. So now I would like to announce a dividend policy for FY March '25, which will be to pay a dividend equivalent to 39% of net income or equal to the FY '24 March dividend of JPY 98.6 whichever is higher. As in the previous fiscal year, we have set a share buyback program of JPY 50 billion. This translates to EPS of JPY 341 and DPS of JPY 133.2 for the whole year. Combined with the JPY 50 billion in shares buyback, ORIX's total shareholders' return is set to reach 51.8%.

現在請翻到第10頁。因此，現在我想宣布25財年3月的股利政策，即支付相當於淨利39%的股利或等於3月24財年股利98.6日圓，以較高者為準。與上一財年一樣，我們制定了 500 億日圓的股票回購計畫。這意味著全年 EPS 為 341 日元，DPS 為 133.2 日元。加上500億日圓的股票回購，歐力士的股東總報酬率將達到51.8%。

Now please turn to Page 11. Unfortunately, the credit rating agency, S&P recently announced its decision to downgrade ORIX from A minus to BBB plus although we maintain high levels of profitability, S&P found it difficult to maintain an A minus rating on ORIX as a financial institution in light of a diversified portfolio, which includes operating assets and investments and given the speed of our capital recycling program. Moody's and Fitch maintain A equivalent, R&I and JCR maintain AA equivalent and they have a stable outlook as well.

現在請翻到第11頁。 不幸的是，信用評級機構S&P最近宣布決定將歐力士的評級從A-下調至BBB+，儘管我們保持了較高的盈利水平，但標準普爾發現歐力士作為一家大型企業很難維持A-的評級。穆迪和惠譽維持 A 級評級，R&I 和 JCR 維持 AA 級評級，展望也穩定。

We will continue our dialogue with the rating agencies to ensure they give an objective and fair evaluation of our businesses. Please note that S&P downgrading has no impact on ORIX's capital and financial policies.

我們將繼續與評級機構對話，確保他們對我們的業務做出客觀、公正的評價。請注意，標準普爾評級下調對歐力士的資本和財務政策沒有影響。

Now please turn to Page 12 and 13. ORIX Group holds asset of JPY 16 trillion with shareholders' equity of JPY 4 trillion. Due to an accounting requirement, nonrecourse loans at industries, third-party capital and accounts, which should be considered off balance sheet are held on ORIX's balance sheet. With ORIX's diverse investment style, each M&A execution has led to an increase in goodwill and intangibles. In light of this, in order to fairly represent the nature of the group businesses, I think a new approach would have to be examined.

現在請翻到第12頁及第13頁。由於會計要求，本應被視為表外的行業無追索權貸款、第三方資本和帳戶都在歐力士的資產負債表上持有。憑藉歐力士多元化的投資風格，每一次併購的執行都帶來了商譽和無形資產的增加。有鑑於此，為了公平地代表集團業務的性質，我認為必須研究一種新的方法。

In FY '25 March end our ROE target is 9.6%. However, each year our intangible assets average around JPY 1 trillion. So considering this, we can believe return on tangible equity, ROTE, which is net income divided by shareholders' equity minus goodwill and intangible assets is an effective way to measure ORIX's nature of business and the actual profitability. Note that ORIX's ROTE trends at around 13%. Going forward, we will disclose ROTE alongside with ROE.

3 月 25 財年末，我們的 ROE 目標為 9.6%。然而，每年我們的無形資產平均約為 1 兆日圓。因此，考慮到這一點，我們可以認為有形權益回報率ROTE（淨利潤除以股東權益減去商譽和無形資產）是衡量歐力士業務性質和實際盈利能力的有效方法。請注意，歐力士的 ROTE 趨勢約為 13%。展望未來，我們將與 ROE 一起揭露 ROTE。

In addition to ROE and ROTE an important factor for growing corporate value is EPS. EPS was JPY 246 in FY '23 March end to JPY 199 in FY '24 March, and we target JPY 341 in FY '25 March end. We will continue to endeavor to strengthen EPS under our PV ratio with the aim of improving shareholders' value.

除了ROE和ROTE之外，企業價值成長的一個重要因素是EPS。 3 月 23 財年末的每股盈餘為 246 日圓，3 月 24 財年末的每股盈餘為 199 日圓，我們的目標是 3 月 25 日財年末的 341 日圓。我們將繼續努力提高每股盈餘（PV比率），以提高股東價值。

Now please refer to Page 14 to 16. We target FY '25 March pretax profits of JPY 553.7 billion, an increase of [7.81%] year-over-year. I will now use the 3 category of finance, operation and investment to provide with you the breakdown. The finance category includes ORIX Life, ORIX Bank a recent installment loans and main businesses of the Corporate Financial Services segment, ORIX USA and leasing businesses at overseas subsidiaries.

現在請參閱第14至16頁。我現在就從財務、營運、投資三個面向為大家做個細分。金融類包括歐力士人壽、歐力士銀行近期分期貸款及企業金融服務部門的主要業務、歐力士美國及海外子公司的租賃業務。

Within Japan, we can expect a mild increase in yen interest rates, which should help improve financing income, asset management yields and leasing spreads.

在日本國內，我們預期日圓利率將溫和上升，有助於改善融資收入、資產管理收益率和租賃利差。

At ORIX Bank, in addition to commercial banking, we aim to strategically improve both ROA and ROE through expansion in merchant banking and private banking. In Insurance, we anticipate growth in embedded value fueled by improvements in asset management yield. At ORIX USA, we assume high interest rates to continue, and therefore, expect that the credit cost burden to continue to rise.

在歐力士銀行，除了商業銀行業務外，我們的目標是透過擴張商業銀行業務和私人銀行業務，策略性地提高ROA和ROE。在保險業，我們預期資產管理收益率的提高將推動內含價值的成長。在歐力士美國，我們假設高利率將持續下去，因此預期信貸成本負擔將持續上升。

However, the multifamily agency and non-agency lending segment, which is ORIX USA's strength is faring comparatively well, and we expect it to contribute to earnings during this fiscal year. In the latter half of this fiscal year, we would hope that improved credit spreads from expectations of future rate cuts might help with earnings. However, before rate cuts actually occur, we feel that the impact of a possible increase in credit cost must also be considered. Thus we plan to continue to conservatively manage OCU portfolio going forward.

然而，歐力士美國的強項多戶代理和非代理貸款業務表現相對較好，我們預計它將為本財年的盈利做出貢獻。在本財年下半年，我們希望未來降息預期帶來的信貸利差改善可能有助於獲利。然而，在實際降息之前，我們認為還必須考慮信貸成本可能增加的影響。因此，我們計劃繼續保守地管理 OCU 投資組合。

In high-growth markets, like Australia, Indonesia and India, we plan to increase our financial portfolio. For finance category segments, we target at about JPY 45 billion increase in pretax profits after the gain from the sale of ORIX Credit.

在澳洲、印尼和印度等高成長市場，我們計劃增加我們的金融投資組合。對於金融類別細分市場，我們的目標是在出售歐力士信貸的收益後稅前利潤增加約450億日圓。

Next, I would like to talk about the operation category. We anticipate roughly JPY 18 billion year-on-year increase in pretax profit, including facility operations in Inns and Hotels in the Real Estate segment, condo development and the sales of (inaudible) and auto-leasing business.

接下來我想談談營運類別。我們預計稅前利潤將年增約 180 億日元，包括房地產領域旅館和酒店的設施運營、公寓開發以及（聽不清楚）銷售和汽車租賃業務。

In ships, while our business model was primarily focused on ship financing and sales, the acquisition of Santoku Senpaku will allow us to make a full-fledged entry into marine transport freight management ship charters and the coastal businesses. In addition, we plan to accelerate investment in eco-ships, making our ships business even more sustainable.

在船舶方面，雖然我們的業務模式主要集中於船舶融資和銷售，但收購 Santoku Senpaku 將使我們能夠全面進入海運貨運管理船舶租賃和沿海業務。此外，我們計劃加快對生態船舶的投資，使我們的船舶業務更加永續。

In addition to ORIX Aviation and Avolon's aircraft leasing business, ORIX is well positioned to benefit from an increase in movement of people and goods in the aircraft and ship business, we are poised to offer solutions in the operations, finance and investment areas, and we plan to grow this as a core business for ORIX Group.

除了歐力士航空和Avolon的飛機租賃業務外，歐力士還能夠從飛機和船舶業務中人員和貨物流動的增加中受益，我們準備在營運、金融和投資領域提供解決方案，並且我們計劃將其發展為歐力士集團的核心業務。

At NXT Capital in the U.S. and Robeco in The Netherlands, we are searching for ways to expand the asset management business. Although it is a competitive market in order for ORIX Group to maintain its earnings expansion, we must consider how to best utilize third-party capital. This remains a vital area for ORIX to address.

在美國的NXT Capital和荷蘭的Robeco，我們正在尋找擴大資產管理業務的方法。儘管市場競爭激烈，歐力士集團要維持獲利擴張，就必須考慮如何充分利用第三方資本。這仍然是歐力士需要解決的重要領域。

Investments are becoming increasingly large in scale, such as carve-outs and there are many opportunities facing us. We think that there is a limit to what ORIX can achieve when it is responsible for all of the acquisition capital. The shift towards an asset management model is an important medium-term scene for ORIX.

投資規模越來越大，例如分拆，我們面臨許多機會。我們認為，當歐力士承擔全部收購資金時，其所能實現的目標是有限的。向資產管理模式的轉變是歐力士中期的重要場景。

ORIX's strengths include our expertise in managing variety of tangible assets and will for financing expertise. For this reason, we believe that we shall have no difficulty in expanding our role in asset manager. The current JPY 60 trillion level AUM should be expanded to 100 trillion level as rapidly as possible. Our basic policy for investments is unchanged. That is not to limit ourselves to any particular industry, but to carefully consider profitability and liquidity and aim to secure opportunities deals, capitalizing upon the strengths of the ORIX Group network.

歐力士的優點包括管理各種有形資產的專業知識以及融資專業知識的意願。因此，我們相信，我們在資產管理公司的角色拓展上不會有任何困難。目前60兆日圓水準的AUM應盡快擴大至100兆日圓水準。我們的投資基本政策並沒有改變。這並不是將我們局限於任何特定行業，而是仔細考慮盈利能力和流動性，並旨在利用歐力士集團網絡的優勢來確保交易機會。

ORIX is active in a variety of fields, such as private equity carve outs, succession deals and venture capital. Our basic principle behind portfolio management is always capital recycling.

歐力士活躍於私募股權分拆、繼承交易和創投等多個領域。我們投資組合管理的基本原則始終是資本回收。

The Kansai Airport concession business, our joint venture with [Fince Group] stands poised to benefit from earnings expansion powered by inbound tourism from the 2025 Osaka Expo.

我們與 [Fince Group] 的合資企業關西機場特許經營業務預計將受益於 2025 年大阪世博會入境旅遊業推動的盈利擴張。

In FY '24 March, in the investment category, we target pretax profit growth of around JPY 57 billion, driven by profit growth at domestic investees and capital recycling in the overseas renewable energy business.

3月24財年，在投資類別中，我們的目標是在國內投資企業利潤成長和海外再生能源業務資本回收的推動下，稅前利潤成長約570億日圓。

Please turn to Page 17. In FY '24 March, ORIX reached JPY 150 billion in capital gains from Aircraft and Ships, Real Estate and PE. This reaches JPY 520 billion altogether with originally invested capital. New investments totaled JPY 620 billion. In FY '25 March, we plan to continue our capital recycling program. The pipeline, both within Japan and overseas for new investments is ample, and we plan to stick to our business strategy which cautiously weighs profitability, liquidity and exit opportunities when making investment decisions. In this fiscal year, we expect the global conflicts to further expand. Worldwide divisions based on nationality, politics and economics accelerating. The results of the November U.S. presidential election run the risk of increasing global uncertainty, and we must think about the possible impact in various areas.

請翻至第 17 頁。加上原始投資金額總計達5,200億日圓。新投資總額達6200億日圓。在 3 月 25 財年，我們計劃繼續我們的資本回收計劃。日本國內外的新投資管道充足，我們計劃堅持我們的業務策略，在做出投資決策時謹慎權衡獲利能力、流動性和退出機會。在本財年，我們預期全球衝突將進一步擴大。全球範圍內基於國籍、政治和經濟的分歧正在加劇。 11月美國總統大選結果有增加全球不確定性的風險，我們必須思考各領域可能受到的影響。

Within Japan, yen depreciation and high prices remain unsolved. Both of these have the effect of lowering Japanese economic value and position in the world, and we must carefully consider the direction that the Group will take. That said, we have no plans to change our basic strategy. In other words, we plan to, first of all, invest in domestic industries; second, execute investment aimed at the solving problems and accelerate globalization of ORIX Group and expand our asset management strategy.

在日本國內，日圓貶值和物價高企問題仍未解決。這兩者都會降低日本的經濟價值和世界地位，我們必須仔細考慮集團將採取的方向。也就是說，我們沒有計劃改變我們的基本策略。也就是說，我們計劃先投資國內產業；第二，進行針對解決問題的投資，加速歐力士集團的全球化進程，拓展我們的資產管理策略。

We plan to maintain this direction for this and next fiscal year. In FY '25 March, we marked the 60th anniversary for the founding of our ORIX Group. We have seen some ups and downs, but I feel that we have been able to maintain a growth trajectory overall. The full and gracious support of our shareholders and stakeholders has been key to our ability to return to a growth trajectory in just 2 years for pandemic and the announcement of record high profits this fiscal year.

我們計劃在本財年和下一財年保持這一方向。 3月25財年，我們慶祝了歐力士集團成立60週年。我們經歷了一些起伏，但我覺得我們總體上能夠保持成長軌跡。我們的股東和利害關係人的全力和慷慨的支持是我們能夠在短短兩年內恢復成長軌跡並在本財年宣布創紀錄的高利潤的關鍵。

Please turn to Page 18. For ORIX Group's 60th anniversary, we aim to further promote sense of unity and increase incorporate value as a global company by accelerating the adoption of the ORIX Group purpose and culture, which was announced in the FY '23 March results briefing. That concludes my remarks. Thank you very much for your kind attention.

請翻至第18頁。在3月23日財年業績中公佈簡報。我的發言到此結束。非常感謝您的關注。

(Operator Instructions) So Mr. Sato from JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）摩根大通的佐藤先生。

I have 2 questions by asking one question by one. So first of all, on Page 15, you had explained for this fiscal period, the -- or the prerequisite in coming up with a target for this year. Now in the area of finance, you are thinking about increasing your profit by 40%, and that seems to be quite significant considering your business nature, the model. So would you may explaining the backdrop to this? And also, at the same time, this -- the headquarter and managerial expense of JPY 75 billion seems to be pretty high as well. So do you mind concerning these numbers and also the backdrop to this?

我一一提問有2個問題。首先，您在第 15 頁解釋了本財年的目標，或提出今年目標的先決條件。現在在金融領域，您正在考慮將利潤增加 40%，考慮到您的業務性質和模式，這似乎相當重要。您能解釋一下這件事的背景嗎？同時，750億日圓的總部和管理費用似乎也相當高。那麼您介意這些數字及其背景嗎？

So may I explain -- provide my explanation to your question then.

那我可以解釋一下嗎——然後對你的問題提供我的解釋。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. In the first of all, with regard to this headquarter and administrative expenses. So JPY 45 billion of interest payment and SG&A is JPY 30 billion also. So those are the major items that is included in the headquarter and administrative expenses. And I think the amount has been trending on and around this amount up to now. So it doesn't seem to be a big increase on our part. And as for the growth area I think I would like to hand over to Yamamoto-san to answer to the question.

好的。首先，關於這個總部和行政費用。因此，利息支付為 450 億日元，SG&A 也為 300 億日元。這些是總部費用和管理費用中包含的主要項目。我認為到目前為止，該金額的趨勢一直在這個金額附近。所以對我們來說，這似乎並沒有太大的增加。至於成長領域，我想我想交給山本先生來回答這個問題。

So with regard to the finance segment or the finance businesses, financial businesses, insurance as well as in U.S., we have been conservatively selecting our businesses, the deals, and we can start to experience some recovery. And so because we have incorporated some negatives in the prior year, and this is why we can expect a significant recovery this year. This means that in the United States.

因此，就金融領域或金融業務、金融業務、保險以及美國而言，我們一直在保守地選擇我們的業務和交易，我們可以開始經歷一些復甦。因為我們已經納入了去年的一些負面因素，這就是為什麼我們可以預期今年會顯著復甦。這意味著在美國。

So according to your qualitative explanation, you sounded very cautious in this briefing session. But you do expect normalization of the businesses, and that is reflected to the numbers. Is that right?

所以根據你的定性解釋，你在這次吹風會上聽起來非常謹慎。但你確實期望業務正常化，這反映在數字上。是這樣嗎？

Well, this is the number that you had JPY 148.2 billion on other profits. And that includes the sales of a credit company, and that is JPY 51 billion or so. So it is a capital gain. So we shouldn't have really amalgamated the numbers. But -- so this is why although the percentage is not that significant. However, from the flow of the business of financials, JPY 198 billion should be achieved, and the majority is consisted of insurance as well as bank and also considering other parts of the financial businesses, we have set these numbers.

嗯，這是您的其他利潤 1,482 億日元的數字。其中包括一家信貸公司的銷售額，約 510 億日圓。所以這是資本利得。所以我們不應該真正合併這些數字。但是——這就是為什麼雖然這個百分比不那麼重要。但從金融業務的流程來看，應該達到1980億日元，其中大部分是保險和銀行，也考慮到金融業務的其他部分，我們設定了這個數字。

As for U.S. though, credit cost, but we did, in fact, kind of appropriate for the credit cost increase as of '24 March end. So we think that we have come to almost to the peak level. However, although the numbers may not grow that much. However, the credit cost, I think, has -- is just about to peak out. So this is why we have come up with this number because we do not foresee the credit cost to further increase.

至於美國的信貸成本，但事實上，截至 3 月 24 日為止，我們的信貸成本成長確實有點適當。所以我們認為我們已經幾乎達到了頂峰水平。然而，儘管數字可能不會增加那麼多。然而，我認為信貸成本即將達到頂峰。所以這就是我們提出這個數字的原因，因為我們預期信貸成本不會進一步增加。

Okay. And the second question, in fact, is still on Page 15, and that is to do with the PE investment. And you, in fact, expect the growth in a significant manner and the capital gain that appears on Page 12, that is. And what I want to be asking with regard to the capital gain in the last year, there was before the impairment loss was a valuation loss, JPY 150 billion, I think that was. But this year, it is about JPY 150 billion to JPY 200 billion of an expectation this year, and it was about JPY 100 billion on average for the past some years. So which means that the capital gain is going to be significantly higher. So over the 2 years, because of the environment that's around the business, the capital gain can be generated in a much bigger way in numbers or this as compared to this JPY 100 billion of an average, it's just that there has been a shift on the level of the capital gain that you can generate in a single year. Would this be a new standard, may I take it? So this is something that I would like you to confirm.

好的。第二個問題其實還在第15頁，就是PE投資的問題。事實上，您預計會出現顯著的成長以及第 12 頁上出現的資本利得。我想問的是關於去年的資本收益，減損損失之前是估值損失，我認為是 1500 億日元。但今年，今年的預期約為1,500億日圓至2,000億日元，過去幾年平均約1,000億日圓。這意味著資本收益將顯著提高。因此，在過去的兩年裡，由於業務周圍的環境，資本收益可以以更大的方式產生，與平均 1000 億日元相比，只是發生了轉變您在一年內可以產生的資本收益水平。這是一個新標準嗎？所以這是我希望你確認的事情。

So JPY 100 billion was on average per year, and that is our user expectation. This year, it was higher because of the sales of the credit business. And although we separate into subsegments, but this JPY 150 billion, in fact, includes the sales of the credit company. And if you were to subtract that, it is roughly about JPY 100 billion of gain. And that is roughly about our expectations or it is in line with our expectation.

所以平均每年 1000 億日元，這是我們用戶的期望。今年，由於信貸業務的銷售，這一數字更高。雖然我們細分了，但這1500億日元實際上包括了信貸公司的銷售額。如果減去這個數字，收益大約是 1000 億日元。這大致符合我們的預期或符合我們的預期。

I'm very sorry that I may be asking this in a different way, perhaps -- but the capital gain, I think you still expect it to JPY 150 billion to JPY 200 billion. That is your expectation going forward. Is that right? And for the next fiscal period and onwards, is this sustainable, the level JPY 150 billion, JPY 200 billion?

我很抱歉，我可能會以不同的方式問這個問題，也許 - 但資本收益，我認為你仍然期望它為 1500 億日元到 2000 億日元。這就是您對未來的期望。是這樣嗎？對於下一個財年及以後的財政期間，1,500億日圓、2,000億日圓的水準是否可持續？

It is possible. It is sustainable, but it is very much dependent on the deals that are available, and we are exploring different opportunities, such as PE and also real estate investment. So we have a certain buffer in place. So still, our user expectation will be still be around JPY 100 billion. So in a -- from a flow perspective, normally, when we do acquire any kind of investment, we would -- the equity method and all that would be under consolidation. And this is why we do expect these kind of numbers that you see on this page.

這是可能的。它是可持續的，但很大程度上取決於可用的交易，我們正在探索不同的機會，例如私募股權投資和房地產投資。所以我們有一定的緩衝。儘管如此，我們的用戶預期仍將在 1,000 億日圓左右。因此，從流量的角度來看，通常，當我們確實收購任何類型的投資時，我們會採用權益法以及所有這些方法進行合併。這就是為什麼我們確實期望您在此頁面上看到這些數字。

Daiwa Securities, Watanabe-san.

大和證券，渡邊先生。

I have 2 questions. First question is about profit target. This is the last year of the midterm and for FY '26 March end and beyond. How much profit growth do you plan for? And ROTE and EPS, I understand you want to focus on these as KPIs. But going forward, do you think your KPIs will change?

我有 2 個問題。第一個問題是關於利潤目標。這是中期選舉的最後一年，也是 3 月 26 日財政年度結束及以後的最後一年。您計劃實現多少利潤成長？ ROTE 和 EPS，我理解您希望將這些作為 KPI 重點關注。但展望未來，您認為您的 KPI 會改變嗎？

Well, for FY '25 March end, this is a situation. And do we produce another 3-year plan midterm plan beyond FY '26 March end. I'm sure that there are expectations for that. But when we produce a midterm plan, it will make the situation more difficult. So we are thinking about that. And including the Directors of the Board, we will be discussing what to do about the 3-year plan, whether to announce that or not. And if we announce it, what do we do. To be quite honest, going forward, we will have a very heated internal discussions.

嗯，對於 3 月 25 日財政年度結束的情況來說，這是一種情況。我們是否會在 3 月 26 日財政年度結束後制定另一個 3 年計畫中期計畫？我相信大家對此有所期待。但當我們制定中期計劃時，情況就會變得更加困難。所以我們正在考慮這一點。包括董事會成員在內，我們將討論如何制定三年計劃，是否宣布。如果我們宣布這一點，我們會做什麼。老實說，接下來我們內部將會有非常激烈的討論。

Level of growth, more than 10% of growth. This is something that we must achieve. And based on that understanding, of course, the numbers need to exceed 10%. But it goes without saying that it depends on the market. But anyway, we are looking at that, and we need some more time before we can announce something externally. So please be patient. What is the second question?

增長水平，超過10%的增長。這是我們必須實現的目標。當然，基於這樣的理解，這個數字需要超過 10%。但不言而喻，這取決於市場。但無論如何，我們正在考慮這一點，我們需要更多的時間才能對外宣布一些事情。所以請耐心等待。第二個問題是什麼？

ROTE and also EPS. Are you going to focus on different KPIs going forward?

ROTE 和 EPS。未來您會關注不同的 KPI 嗎？

ROA, ROE and well, LTE is maybe another perspective that we should have. Some other companies are looking at return on tangible assets as well. But there are companies that don't use this KPI. Trading companies invest a lot in tangible assets, so they usually use ROE. But our investments, well, there's a lot of goodwill sometimes of intangible assets, and we invest into those companies quite often. Of course, we will show ROE, but ROTA is something maybe we have to calculate as well. And on the profit, we have EPS as well. We are not trying to increase the number of KPIs, ROA and ROE are the main KPIs. But in order to understand the true status of the company, ROTE is something that we want to look at. So this is our policy, and we also want to use it as an external announcement approach, but this is not really a KPI.

ROA、ROE 以及 LTE 或許是我們應該擁有的另一個視角。其他一些公司也在考慮有形資產的報酬。但有些公司不使用這個 KPI。貿易公司大量投資於有形資產，因此通常使用ROE。但我們的投資，有時有很多無形資產的商譽，而且我們經常投資這些公司。當然，我們會顯示 ROE，但 ROTA 可能也是我們必須計算的。在獲利方面，我們也有每股盈餘。我們並不是想增加KPI的數量，ROA和ROE是主要的KPI。但為了了解公司的真實狀況，ROTE是我們想看的。所以這是我們的政策，我們也想把它當作一個外部公告的方式，但這並不是真正的KPI。

Second question is about shareholder return. Payout ratio of 39%. It was 33%. And also on top of that, there was some addition due to the abolishment of the shareholder benefit. But what is the background? What is the reason for this increase?

第二個問題是關於股東回報。派息比率為39%。是33%。除此之外，由於取消了股東利益，還有一些增加。但背景是什麼？這一增長的原因是什麼？

It's simple. We want to see our investors happy.

這很簡單。我們希望看到我們的投資者高興。

Prime market average payout ratio is at 37%, I think. And the 37%, 38% are not really impactful. So why not 39%.

我認為優質市場的平均支付率為 37%。而那37%、38%並沒有真正的影響力。那為什麼不是 39%呢？

Well, I know that people asked us for 40%, but it was not possible. So 39% is the number that we would like to show and get your understanding on. We don't know what is going to happen in the future, but we want to maintain growth, and we also have capital about JPY 4 trillion. So low payout ratio would not be something that would make the market happy, would be disappointing. And also for the retail investors from fiscal year '24 and March end, we stopped providing shareholders benefit. So we wanted to provide some additional return. This is how the decision was made. We thought maybe this could be lower in the beginning, but we want to have this endorsed by the investors, and that is why we decided on this number. I hope this answers your question.

嗯，我知道人們要求我們提供 40%，但這是不可能的。因此，39% 是我們想要展示並讓您理解的數字。我們不知道未來會發生什麼，但我們想保持成長，而且我們還有大約4兆日圓的資本。如此低的股息率不會讓市場感到高興，反而會令人失望。對於散戶投資者，從 24 財年和 3 月底開始，我們停止提供股東利益。所以我們想提供一些額外的回報。決定就是這樣做出來的。我們認為一開始這個數字可能會更低，但我們希望得到投資者的認可，這就是我們決定這個數字的原因。我希望這能回答你的問題。

The next person is Sasaki-san from Nomura Securities.

下一個人是野村證券的佐佐木先生。

I have 2 questions. The first question is with regard to the hedging costs. In the presentation, I think you had explained about the hedging cost. And when you came out with the plan for this year, how did you reflect the hedging cost in what way? And when you do make an investment overseas, you'll basically do hedge against it. Has there been any changes to the policy, the hedging policy? And if you're going to proceed with globalization, do you always have to hedge whenever you make an overseas investment, I wonder, so would the hedging policy remains to be unchanged despite the fact that you'll be proceeding with the project globalization.

我有 2 個問題。第一個問題是關於對沖成本。在演講中，我認為您已經解釋了對沖成本。還有今年的計畫出來的時候，你是怎麼體現對沖成本的？當你在海外進行投資時，你基本上會對其進行對沖。政策、對沖政策有改變嗎？如果你要進行全球化，那麼你每次進行海外投資時，是不是都要進行對沖，我想知道，那麼，雖然你正在進行全球化項目，但對沖政策是否會保持不變？

So to begin with, you see ORIX was a yen-based company. We started out that way. And therefore, we have been proceeding with the investment overseas on a yen-denominated basis, but now we had extended globally. So therefore, dollar-denominated outstanding balance of investment is JPY 2.8 trillion. And in total of JPY 3.5 trillion worth of investment overseas that is denominated either on U.S. dollars as well as or euro. So therefore, is there any kind of benefit in hedging against those currencies on a yen basis. We had questioned ourselves. So this JPY 160 to $1, in fact, kind of poses a question whether we should continue to maintain our capital in a very conservative way by hedging, even against such the level of currency. But of course, on an adjusted ForEx basis, we would be making an adjustment on the final, of course, accounts. But other than conservatively hedging for everything and anything, we may want to become a little more flexible, considering deal-by deal, whether hedging is necessary or not would be questioned. And so therefore, going forward, so this ForEx-adjusted amount, even if there was to be any fluctuation, it will be adjusted on the balance sheet basis. It will not affect the P&L. So this is why we may become a little more flexible, which means that the hedging costs going forward would not be based on a very conservative hedging policy. But I think we would turn a little more flexible, and that is at the basis of this earnings forecast of the plan, which means that in '25 March, so JPY 390 billion of our net profit expectations.

首先，你會發現歐力士是一家以日圓為基礎的公司。我們就是這樣開始的。因此，我們一直以日圓計價的基礎上進行海外投資，但現在我們已經擴展到全球範圍。因此，以美元計價的未償投資餘額為 2.8 兆日圓。海外投資總額達 3.5 兆日圓，以美元或歐元計價。因此，以日圓為基礎對沖這些貨幣是否有任何好處？我們曾質疑過自己。因此，日圓 160 兌 1 美元實際上提出了一個問題，即我們是否應該繼續以非常保守的方式透過對沖來維持我們的資本，即使是針對這樣的貨幣水準。但當然，在調整後的外匯基礎上，我們當然會對最終帳戶進行調整。但除了保守地對沖一切事物之外，我們可能希望變得更靈活一點，逐一考慮交易，對沖是否有必要會受到質疑。因此，展望未來，即使有任何波動，外匯調整後的金額也會在資產負債表的基礎上進行調整。它不會影響損益表。因此，這就是為什麼我們可能會變得更加靈活，這意味著未來的對沖成本不會基於非常保守的對沖政策。但我認為我們會變得更加靈活一點，那就是在這個盈利預測的基礎上製定的計劃，這意味著在'3月25日，我們的淨利潤預期為3900億日元。

So this operation, in fact, there will be changes in your operation as well as this impact that you have just announced?

那麼這次的操作，其實你們的操作以及剛才宣布的這個影響也會有些改變？

Of course, if there was to be any kind of excess in terms of the planned target, then that would be the change that will be reflected, if you could take you that way.

當然，如果在計劃目標方面有任何超額，那麼這就是將反映出來的變化，如果你能那樣做的話。

Now you had explained to us that there are a number of risks that you foresee. But for example, Mr. Inoue, in your idea, this -- what would allow you to exceed your expectations in terms of the profit generation or the business opportunities or any kind of risks that may perhaps become smaller or whatever?

現在您已經向我們解釋了您預見到的許多風險。但是，例如，井上先生，在您的想法中，這——什麼能讓您在利潤產生、商業機會或任何可能變得更小的風險等方面超出您的預期？

So 24 months, and if you were to refer to the numbers, it was very much domestic focused. In other words, the overseas location, we had faced difficulty if we may conclude. So as for the United States, if interest rates start to, of course, get lower, the arbitrage would work, and therefore, the spread would of course, spread or the other way around. So which means that we may be able to increase our profit generation. But according to the announcement of the Fed, it doesn't look as if they're going to be lowering the interest rate immediately. But of course, Mr. Trump becomes the President, sure the interest rate may perhaps become lower, and they may perhaps cut the corporate tax rate as well. So if U.S. will be directed by Trump, then, of course, things would be very different. But that will be after the next fiscal period though. So as for U.S., it looks as if we will be hitting the bottom soon. However, how much of an improvement can we make is very much dependent on how things would kind of proceed. So inclusive of the security in Europe, the volatility may perhaps increase on -- over in Europe. So USA, if Trump becomes President, of course, things would become better. But if Trump is going to become the President, Europe may suffer more. And China may continue to struggle. So this is what if domestic can maintain their current level of the businesses, then the United States will be an additional contributor. And Europe may not be and Robeco AUM can be expanded. But as for Robeco, of course, the inflation, in fact, has not kind of come down. So therefore, 2025 number is still very difficult to -- or it has no -- it does not have much of a visibility that is. So this is why we have carried out the downward revision from JPY 440 billion to JPY 400 billion to JPY 390 billion. That is -- these are at the backdrop. So if my forecast is not too conservative, then I think we would be able to exceed our current target of EUR 390 billion.

24 個月，如果你參考這些數字，你會發現它主要集中在國內。換句話說，如果我們可以得出結論，在海外，我們遇到了困難。對於美國來說，如果利率當然開始下降，套利就會起作用，因此利差當然會擴大，或者反之亦然。這意味著我們也許能夠增加利潤。但根據聯準會的公告，他們似乎不會立即降息。但當然，川普先生成為總統，肯定利率可能會降低，而且他們也可能會降低公司稅率。因此，如果美國由川普領導，那麼情況當然會大不相同。但這將是在下一個財政週期之後。至於美國，看起來我們很快就會觸底。然而，我們能做出多大的改進很大程度取決於事情的進展方式。考慮到歐洲的安全，歐洲的波動性可能會增加。所以美國，如果川普當選總統，當然事情會變得更好。但如果川普當選總統，歐洲可能會遭受更多損失。而中國可能會繼續掙扎。所以這就是如果國內能夠維持目前的業務水平，那麼美國將是額外的貢獻者。歐洲可能不會，荷寶的資產管理規模可以擴大。但對荷寶來說，通膨其實並沒有下降。因此，2025 年的數字仍然很難——或者說沒有——它沒有太多的可見性。所以這就是為什麼我們進行了從4400億日元到4000億日元到3900億日元的向下修正。也就是說——這些都是背景。因此，如果我的預測不太保守，那麼我認為我們將能夠超過目前 3900 億歐元的目標。

So JPY 390 billion impact is a minimum target that you are -- you feel the obligation to achieve?

因此，3,900 億日圓的影響是您的最低目標—您覺得有義務實現嗎？

I don't want to really kind of draw myself into the corner, but that's my basic idea incorporating all the risks.

我並不想真的把自己逼到牆角，但這是我考慮所有風險的基本想法。

SMBC Nikko Securities, Muraki-san.

SMBC日興證券，Muraki-san。

Page 11, you are showing the financial leverage. And on Page 11 and 12, you're showing your ROE. In order to increase ROE, what can be done? That is my question. I don't think it's too difficult to achieve 10%, but in rating leverage and then if you increase to 10% or higher, maybe to challenge you to maintain that high level. So if the leverage is not increased, then as a method, for example, as you explained, shifting to asset management, introducing third-party money and earning fees, I think that would be the model that you would want to shift to. But in order to increase ROE for this fiscal year, what are the initiatives for asset management? What are the specific initiatives in Japan and outside.

第 11 頁，您正在顯示財務槓桿。在第 11 頁和第 12 頁上，您將展示您的交戰規則。為了提高ROE，可以做什麼？這是我的問題。我認為達到10%並不是太難，但是在評級槓桿方面，如果你增加到10%或更高，也許會挑戰你保持這個高水準。所以如果不提高槓桿的話，那麼作為一個方法，比如你剛才講的，轉向資管，引入第三方資金，賺取手續費，我想這就是你想要轉向的模式。但為了提高本財年的ROE，資產管理方面有哪些措施？日本國內外有哪些具體措施？

Including the USA we plan to launch funds. And if the capital already is trying to increase the fund's AUM and for domestic market, especially including Middle East, we are finding new investors who want to put money with ORIX. And of course, we have to deal with the situations one by one, which means that, for example, with private equity, how much AUM we will have, we don't know yet. But anyway, we want to increase the AUM and increase the asset management fees. The challenge as compared to principal investment, we will be using third parties' money and the profitability will be much lower in terms of fee. So we have to do both in other words.

包括美國，我們計劃推出基金。如果資本已經在嘗試增加基金的資產管理規模，並且針對國內市場，尤其是中東市場，我們正在尋找想要將資金投入歐力士的新投資者。當然，我們必須一一處理，這意味著，例如私募股權，我們將擁有多少資產管理規模，我們還不知道。但無論如何，我們要提高AUM，提高資產管理費。與本金投資相比，我們面臨的挑戰是，我們將使用第三方的資金，並且在費用方面的獲利能力會低得多。換句話說，我們必須兩者兼具。

And as was mentioned before, if we want to maintain a level higher than 10%, then we need a lot of funding from the third party, and we have to think about the various initiatives. Total asset may increase. The total number may increase, but ROE may get worse. So in order to avoid that situation, we have to think about our policy how to best utilize capital and the third-parties' investment and continue on expansion path. This is a major theme. And this is the direction we're already moving into this direction, but it will take some more time before we see the impact or the result of this.

正如之前提到的，如果我們想維持高於10%的水平，那麼我們需要第三方提供大量資金，我們必須考慮各種措施。總資產可能增加。總數可能會增加，但 ROE 可能會變得更糟。因此，為了避免這種情況，我們必須思考我們的政策如何最好地利用資本和第三方的投資，並繼續走擴張之路。這是一個重大主題。我們已經在朝著這個方向前進，但我們還需要一些時間才能看到其影響或結果。

Maybe it's not so much about earning fees, but you also mentioned that the project size is also increasing. If you think about GFC, for example, as a deal I think there's an advantage in going it alone, investing 100% by yourself. But for large-scale deals, do you think we will see more and more joint investments?

也許與其說是為了賺取費用，但您也提到了專案規模也在增加。例如，如果你考慮 GFC，作為一項交易，我認為單獨行動、自己 100% 投資是有優勢的。但對於大規模交易，您認為我們會看到越來越多的聯合投資嗎？

Yes, that is correct, including Middle East, third-party investments coming into ORIX. This means co-investment fund type of approach. For example, we get for 51%, and we will invite 49% investment. That will be the approach. But basically -- according to accounting recommend this 49% will be 100% on our balance sheet. So how to explain that externally is another issue. But anyway, U.S. GAAP requires us when we get investment from different sources and ORIX invests 30% or 40% or even a majority, everything has to be on our balance sheet. So ROA/ROE do not improve at least on the surface level. So how do we explain that properly externally? And that is why we're talking about ROTE showing that in parallel so that you can see how efficiently ORIX, as a whole, is being managed. So our next challenge is how to explain that externally.

是的，這是正確的，包括中東、第三方投資進入歐力士。這意味著共同投資基金類型的方法。例如我們拿到51%，我們會邀請49%的投資。這就是方法。但基本上，根據會計建議，這 49% 在我們的資產負債表上將是 100%。那麼如何對外解釋又是另一個問題了。但無論如何，美國公認會計準則要求我們，當我們從不同來源獲得投資時，歐力士投資30%或40%甚至大部分，一切都必須在我們的資產負債表上。因此，ROA/ROE 至少在表面上沒有改善。那我們如何對外正確地解釋這一點呢？這就是為什麼我們談論 ROTE 並行顯示這一點，以便您可以看到 ORIX 作為一個整體的管理效率如何。所以我們的下一個挑戰是如何向外部解釋這一點。

The next person is SBI Securities, Otsuka-san.

下一個人是SBI證券的大塚先生。

So on Page 15, I was referring to Page 15. And I want to be asking questions about the PE investment. So 188 and 304 in fact, is -- so that is 420 of an increase, JPY 42 billion of an increase. So Page 40, in fact, shows a breakdown by 3 categories and is a matrix with the segments. And according to Mr. Inoue's explanation, and I think you have been explaining over time. But on Page 14. So the -- in the operation, which area is going to increase for its grow in operations?

所以在第 15 頁，我指的是第 15 頁。事實上，188 和 304 是——也就是說，增加了 420，即增加了 420 億日元。因此，第 40 頁實際上顯示了 3 個類別的細分，並且是一個包含細分的矩陣。根據井上先生的解釋，我認為您一直在解釋。但在第 14 頁。

So first of all, Kansai Airport kicks in the last year, about JPY 10 billion. Our -- I think it was a pick up on our equity, and that should double. And also Aircraft business -- so we're proceeding with the acquisition of the aircraft in a significant way. And in addition, we would be this -- selling those aircraft to Japanese industries and also the replacement of the fleet of the ships will take place as well. So JPY 40 billion worth of profit can be generated with these being set. And the Greenko, Elawan the assets how can we capitalize on those assets? In other words, proceeding with the capital recycling that is. And taking all that into account, I think posting of such an amount of profit is quite possible we thought.

首先，關西機場去年的營收約為 100 億日圓。我們的－我認為這是我們資產的增加，而且應該要翻倍。還有飛機業務——因此我們正在大力收購飛機。此外，我們會這樣做——將這些飛機出售給日本工業，並且還將更換艦隊。因此，設定這些後，可以產生價值400億日圓的利潤。 Greenko、Elawan 的資產我們如何利用這些資產？換句話說，就是繼續進行資本回收。考慮到所有這些，我認為我們認為發佈如此數額的利潤是很有可能的。

I'm sorry to go into much of the details Mr. Inoue. But on Page 14, Kansai Airport in fact, is an facilities operation, right? So I thought that it is under investment? Or is it under the real estate facility operations of operations? Is that right?

井上先生，我很抱歉要談很多細節。但第14頁上，關西機場其實是一個設施運營，對吧？所以我認為它正在投資？還是屬於房地產設施營運的營運？是這樣嗎？

So investment, in fact, if it is under equity method, it will be under investment. But the airport operation after all, is under operation, although as an asset, it is held as an equity method. So I'm sorry that it is confusing. So as an operation, it is 100% operation for ORIX, real estate facility operation that is and of course, airport is included. In the case of Kansai International Airport, we own 40%. However, there are about 10 people that are [seconded] from a company, and they are very much involved on a day-to-day operations. So as to the operation of Kansai Airport, there's an overlap between operation and investment. I hope this would explain. So this 188 and 8.5 and [203.4.] In fact, includes Kansai Airport. Yes, it does, the operation, I mean. Yes.

所以說投資，其實如果是權益法的話，那就是投資了。但機場營運畢竟是營運中的，雖然作為資產，是以權益法持有的。所以我很抱歉這令人困惑。所以作為一個運營，歐力士是100%運營，房地產設施運營，當然也包括機場。就關西國際機場而言，我們擁有 40% 的股份。然而，從一家公司借調的人員大約有10人，他們非常參與日常營運。就關西機場的營運而言，營運與投資有重疊。我希望這能解釋一下。所以這個188和8.5和[203.4.]其實包括關西機場。是的，確實如此，我的意思是手術。是的。

It's almost time to close. And therefore, the next question will be the last, Citigroup Securities, Niwa-san.

快到關門的時間了。因此，下一個問題就是最後一個問題，花旗證券，丹羽先生。

I would like to talk about the exit and also pipeline evaluation, JPY 1.2 trillion this time around. And last time last year, around this time, you said it was going to be JPY 1.5 trillion. And I think investment was quite successful last year maybe. But with regard to the pipeline, is it okay to expect something like JPY 2 trillion? Or is it completely unrealistic? If you could explain, please.

我想談談退出和管道評估，這次是1.2兆日圓。去年的這個時候，您曾說過將達到 1.5 兆日圓。我認為去年的投資可能相當成功。但就管道而言，可以期待 2 兆日圓嗎？還是完全不切實際？如果你能解釋一下，請。

Well, pipeline. Well, we have more than JPY 2 trillion if we include all the good and bad things. And if we are selective, this is a number that we're talking about. And then out of that, after buying can you increase the value? And can we do the capital recycling and liquidate. And also, how can we capitalize the ORIX network. We have to look at all of this and then it would be basically about 50%. There are many inquiries, but it's becoming more and more competitive as well. And we don't buy at high price. So we have to be very carefully looking at these different deals. One good example of this is Santoku Senpaku. In the beginning from the sellers' perspective -- we're basically out of the question, but they changed their minds and they wanted to do with us. So we cannot say exactly how much, but we could purchase them at a very competitive rate. So there's inquiries as pipeline, can we really buy at a good purchase price? And then can we really increase the value after the investment. So we have to be very discerning in all of these perspectives, which means that we cannot really process a large volume. But there's a lot in our pipeline, and we have sufficient projects that we can do. But of course, we have to be selective in terms of what deals we can do because it's a competitive landscape and this stance has not really changed from before. I hope that answers your question.

嗯，管道。嗯，如果把所有好的和壞的都算進去的話，我們的收入就超過2兆日元了。如果我們有選擇性的話，這就是我們正在討論的數字。那麼購買之後可以增值嗎？我們能否進行資金回收和清算？另外，我們如何利用歐力士網絡。我們必須考慮所有這些，然後基本上會達到 50% 左右。詢盤很多，但競爭也越來越激烈。而且我們不會花高價買。因此，我們必須非常仔細地審視這些不同的交易。 Santoku Senpaku 就是一個很好的例子。一開始從賣家的角度來看——我們基本上是不可能的，但他們改變了主意，想和我們合作。所以我們不能確切地說出多少錢，但我們可以以非常有競爭力的價格購買它們。所以有很多詢問，我們真的能以一個好的購買價格購買嗎？投資後才能真正增值。所以我們必須對所有這些角度都非常有洞察力，這意味著我們無法真正處理大量的數據。但我們還有很多事情要做，而且我們有足夠的專案可以做。但當然，我們必須在可以進行的交易方面有所選擇，因為這是一個競爭格局，而且這種立場與以前相比並沒有真正改變。我希望這能回答你的問題。

Now I would like to ask you about lifestyle and also bank low profitability businesses. And in the presentation, this time around, you talked about small upside of Japanese economy. That was my understanding, which means that for these businesses in terms of facility expansion, maybe there's no more room. Is that the correct understanding? Or once the monetary policy changes, should you continue to hold these businesses as core businesses because the profitability will change. The monetary situation is changing. So I would like to understand your position, you stance about bank and insurance.

現在我想問您有關生活方式以及銀行低盈利業務的問題。這次在演講中，您談到了日本經濟的小幅上漲。這是我的理解，這意味著對於這些企業來說，在設施擴建方面，可能沒有更多的空間了。這是正確的理解嗎？或者一旦貨幣政策發生變化，你是否應該繼續把這些業務當作核心業務，因為獲利能力會改變。貨幣狀況正在改變。所以我想了解你的立場，你對銀行和保險的立場。

Yes, for life insurance and bank, it's true that the profitability is low. In order to increase the profitability, we are pressuring these teams. If the interest rate goes up, our embedded value of life insurance company will increase. And then we will have maybe sufficient price to sell. If that is the case, we will not hesitate to sell. And this has been my policy over the last several years, it has not changed. And the same story with the bank, we are asking the bank to increase the profitability.

是的，對於壽險和銀行來說，獲利能力確實較低。為了提高獲利能力，我們正在向這些團隊施加壓力。如果利率上升，我們人壽保險公司的內含價值就會增加。然後我們也許就有足夠的價格可以賣。如果是這樣的話，我們會毫不猶豫地出售。這是我過去幾年的政策，沒有改變。銀行的情況也是如此，我們要求銀行提高獲利能力。

Compared to other businesses, ROA seems to be good. But if we want to sell the bank, we can only sell at PBR of 0.7x. We're not that desperate. So we only sell if the price is right. So same thinking as credit. If we have the buyer and the offer is attractive for us, then we will sell at that attractive price. So the policy is still unchanged.

與其他業務相比，ROA 似乎不錯。但如果我們想賣掉銀行，我們只能以0.7倍的PBR賣。我們並沒有那麼絕望。所以我們只有在價格合適的情況下才出售。與信用的想法相同。如果我們有買家並且報價對我們有吸引力，那麼我們將以有吸引力的價格出售。所以政策還是沒有改變。

In order to increase ROE I think what to do with this business is a big thing for ORIX. But still, you want to maximize the value that is more important for us. Is that correct?

為了提高ROE我覺得怎麼做這個業務對歐力士來說是一件大事。但您仍然希望最大化對我們來說更重要的價值。這是正確的嗎？

Well, bank and life insurance, 0.5, 0.6 at this level, I don't think there's an advantage for us to sell. That is our assessment it has to be sold at the right price. You may be dissatisfied but ROE is 9% with ORIX and we are approaching exceeding 10%. So we want to pursue ways to maximize the value. That is the current direction of ORIX. I hope you understand.

嗯，銀行和人壽保險，0.5、0.6這個水平，我不認為我們賣有什麼優勢。這是我們的評估，它必須以合適的價格出售。你可能會不滿意，但歐力士的 ROE 是 9%，我們正在接近超過 10%。所以我們要尋求價值最大化的方法。這就是歐力士目前的方向。我希望你能理解。

Thank you for the questions. And with this, we'd like to conclude the Q&A session. And I'd like to ask Mr. Inoue to provide us with the closing remarks.

謝謝你的提問。至此，我們的問答環節就結束了。我想請井上先生為我們做總結發言。

Well, this year, 2024 March end, the numbers were pretty good. as you -- as we have announced, but it is not to our full satisfaction, JPY 390 billion, JPY 400 billion and also ROE of 10%, 11% must be achieved. And it will require a strenuous effort in order to achieve those goals. So we will continue to seek for your support. And of course, during this time, of course, we would enhance the payout ratio so that we'll be able to align ourselves with your expectations. And this is how we are going to be managing this business forward. So please continue to support us.

嗯，今年，2024 年 3 月結束，數字相當不錯。正如我們已經宣布的那樣，但我們並不完全滿意，必須實現 3900 億日元、4000 億日元以及 10%、11% 的 ROE。為了實現這些目標，需要付出艱苦的努力。因此，我們將繼續尋求您的支持。當然，在此期間，我們當然會提高支付率，以便我們可以符合您的期望。這就是我們未來管理這項業務的方式。所以請繼續支持我們。

So with this, I'd like to conclude our FY '24 March end briefing session. Thank you very much for your participation. And please disconnect.

因此，我想結束 3 月 24 日財政年度結束簡報會。非常感謝您的參與。並且請斷開連線。

[Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]

[本筆錄中的英語陳述是由現場通話中的口譯員說出的。