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Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Welcome. We are right at the studio for the Q&A session. Before we start, we would like to remind you that this is a two-language session. So we will answer the questions in the language that they are asked. (Operator Instructions)
歡迎。我們現在就在攝影棚進行問答環節。在開始之前,我們想提醒各位,這是一場雙語會議。因此,我們將以提問所使用的語言來回答問題。(接線員指示)
So the first question in Thiago Batista from UBS.
那麼第一個問題來自瑞銀(UBS)的 Thiago Batista。
Thiago Bovolenta Batista - Analyst
Thiago Bovolenta Batista - Analyst
Congratulations on the predictability of your results. Very constant, very predictable. Question is about, well, the focus of Itau Unibanco, the main banks is the one that is less exposed with the client with products, but I wanted to hear your initial impressions on the program, Desenrola. And also Rede, of course, there is the capture of payouts. What are the next steps at Rede as well?
恭喜你們的業績可預測性。非常穩定、非常可預期。我的問題是關於——嗯——伊塔烏聯合銀行(Itaú Unibanco)的重點:在主要銀行中,你們對客戶與產品的曝險相對較低;但我想聽聽你們對「Desenrola」計畫的初步看法。另外當然還有 Rede,涉及到付款(payouts)的攫取。Rede 接下來的步驟是什麼?
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, welcome once again. Thank you for asking your question. Let me start by Desenrola, the program. Desenrola is a building. So the FEBRABAN and banks and the ministry worked with a [debate] since the first date to understand what are the conditions that we would be comfortable to find the best product, the best deadline, the best discount, everything within a reasonability that would make sense for the client, for the system, for the market.
好的,再次歡迎。謝謝你的提問。我先從 Desenrola 這個計畫開始。Desenrola 正在建構中。因此,FEBRABAN、銀行以及部會自第一天起就透過[討論]來了解:在什麼條件下我們會覺得合適,從而找到最佳產品、最佳期限、最佳折扣——所有一切都要在合理範圍內,對客戶、對體系、對市場都說得通。
Of course, it's a program that is very concentrated in five minimum salaries, that's a range up until two years with a discount that is predefined and with a guarantee of SGO for the limited 50% (inaudible), so to speak. So in our case, we are working actively -- since yesterday, we've been working. We are operating in the new program, but it's evident that you just mentioned -- well, proportionately, the public of the market that is eligible for this program in regards to our portfolio is less relevant in the portfolio of the bank, proportionally speaking.
當然,這個計畫高度集中在五個最低工資的族群,涵蓋最長到兩年的區間,折扣是預先設定的,並且有 SGO 的擔保,限於 50%(聽不清)——可以這麼說。就我們而言,我們正積極運作——從昨天開始我們就已經在做了。我們正在新計畫下營運,但很明顯你剛提到的——嗯——就比例而言,市場上符合此計畫資格的客群,相對於我們的投資組合而言,在本行投資組合中的重要性較低(按比例來看)。
So without a shadow of a doubt, we are going to work in the best way possible. We're going to try to get the best offerings for the eligible clients. But in terms of materiality in the results, I wouldn't say that it's material given the size of the credit line and the recovery line of the bank, but we're going to try and service the clients well in the transitional process given the level of indebtedness, the interest rate, the delays. We think that working alongside with the sector is good to service these clients well. This is the first.
因此毫無疑問,我們會以最佳方式來推進。我們會嘗試為符合資格的客戶提供最好的方案。但就對業績的重大性而言,考量到本行授信規模與回收(recovery)規模,我不會說它具有重大影響;不過在過渡過程中,鑑於負債程度、利率與逾期情況,我們會努力把客戶服務好。我們認為與同業一起推動,有助於更好地服務這些客戶。這是第一點。
Well, about Rede, it's important to make sure that you understand that the integration that we've done in the past was well, let's [succeed] it was well done. The results are there. You can see. We fitted in the offering. We do not talk about Rede.
至於 Rede,重要的是要確保你理解:我們過去所做的整合——嗯——我們就說它是成功的——確實做得很好。成果就在那裡,你可以看到。我們把它納入整體方案。我們不談 Rede。
We talk about receivables and payments, the integrated offering. We service the clients in their needs regardless of the product. The pricing is done the [vision] client, not the product. In the past, several companies were listed in the sector, so everybody would work with the mono product and pricing. That doesn't make sense for Itau Unibanco for a long time. So it's another product, another offering to service well the needs of our clients.
我們談的是應收款與支付(receivables and payments)的整合式方案。我們依據客戶需求提供服務,而不受限於單一產品。定價是以客戶為視角,而不是以產品為視角。過去,產業裡有好幾家公司上市,所以大家都用單一產品與單一定價方式運作。這對伊塔烏聯合銀行而言很久以前就不合理了。因此,這只是另一個產品、另一個方案,用來更好地滿足客戶需求。
In the market share, in fact, we've had the results of this quarter. It's an effect of the mix that is important. We had a higher volume of wholesale than retail. And what guides the market share is the big accounts. The retail has more profitability in the business, but the one that directs the market share two-thirds is the big accounts. So when you have big contracts that moves the needle naturally, the most important is that we are leaders in the sector for a long time. We are leaders in the market of the wholesale and also the retail markets. So that's the main message.
至於市占率,事實上我們看到本季的結果,這是產品組合(mix)效應,且很重要。我們批發(wholesale)量高於零售(retail)。而市占率主要由大型帳戶(big accounts)所驅動。零售在業務上更有獲利性,但在市占率的衡量上,約三分之二是由大型帳戶所主導。因此當你有大型合約時,自然會帶動指標變動。更重要的是,我們長期以來一直是這個產業的領導者。我們在批發市場與零售市場也都是領先者。這是主要訊息。
Now market share, that's not our objective. It's a consequence of our actions. If it's well resolved, if it's well fitted in the journey, we are servicing the clients well with a competitive value proposition, the share is a consequence. In the big accounts, we avoid that discussion of renting the market share because you can get it with aggressive pricing and below the exchange feed and the flag and you receive the market share, it's costly to carry it over. And we've seen that.
至於市占率,那不是我們的目標,而是我們行動的結果。只要問題解決得好、在客戶旅程中嵌入得好,我們以具競爭力的價值主張把客戶服務好,市占率就會是結果。在大型帳戶方面,我們避免去討論「租來的市占率」,因為你可以用激進定價、低於交換費(interchange fee)與卡組織(flag)的費率來換取市占率,但維持它的成本很高。我們也看過這種情況。
In this quarter, specifically in the line of flows of payouts and receivables that we have in the revenues and services line, we had an effect, two main. The first was the mix that I just commented. Second, the structure of hedge that we use because we do the hedge of the anticipation that are done because most of them are automatic. So we will work the transfer and the liabilities through time and that generates volatility. It's not 100% perfect hedge. It's impossible. So any change in the interest rate structure is the main impact in this line.
本季在我們收入與服務(revenues and services)項下的付款與應收款流量(flows of payouts and receivables)這條線上,主要有兩個影響。第一是我剛提到的組合(mix)。第二是我們使用的避險(hedge)結構,因為我們會對預支(anticipation)做避險,而其中多數是自動進行的。因此我們會隨時間調整資金轉移與負債端,這會帶來波動。這不可能做到 100% 完美避險。任何利率結構的變動,都是這條線最主要的影響。
And about the result of Rede, is still in the margin with the clients. So I would say that 98% of the result is in the service line. In the next quarter, we are going to do the adjustment that is missing, which is bringing part of the result that is positive in this quarter. So we saw that all the result of really is an alliance of services and insurance, which would attenuate the numbers that you're seeing. But our strategy is best offering vision of the client, price at the client and vision of the payments and receivables amongst [acquirants]. It plays an important role.
至於 Rede 的結果,仍然體現在客戶利差(margin with the clients)之中。所以我會說,98% 的結果都在服務(service)這條線上。下一季我們會做尚未完成的調整,也就是把本季為正的部分結果移轉過來。因此我們看到,真正的結果其實是服務與保險的結盟(alliance of services and insurance),這會緩和你目前看到的數字。但我們的策略是:以客戶為中心的最佳方案、以客戶為定價基礎,以及在收單機構([acquirants])之間的支付與應收款視角。它扮演重要角色。
Well, let's go to the second question with Bernardo Guttmann from XP.
好的,我們進入第二個問題,來自 XP 的 Bernardo Guttmann。
Bernardo Guttmann - Analyst
Bernardo Guttmann - Analyst
Congratulations on the results. So I wanted to understand the trajectory of the ROE of the bank. Itau delivered 25% of ROE recurring, very high threshold even in a seasonably weaker quarter. When you see that profitability, the natural question is how many levers do you still have to maintain or even expand this ROE through the year? In your opinion, the sustainability will come from margin of the client efficiency, mix of credit, revenues of services, capital. Is there any point that you think that the market is still not capturing well the capacity of Itau in keeping that ROI structurally above the system?
恭喜你們的業績。我想了解銀行 ROE 的走勢。伊塔烏交出了 25% 的經常性 ROE,即使在季節性較弱的一季也仍然很高。看到這樣的獲利能力,自然會問:你們還有多少槓桿可以在今年維持甚至擴大 ROE?在你看來,可持續性會來自客戶利差與效率、信貸組合、服務收入、資本等哪一塊?是否有任何一點,你認為市場仍未充分掌握伊塔烏能夠在結構上把 ROI 維持在高於同業體系的能力?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Bernardo. Thank you for the question. Thank you for your initial words. Great to see you again. Well, the issue of the ROE, as we always mentioned, and I'm going to answer your question, but I'm going to do it with a disclaimer.
謝謝你,Bernardo。謝謝你的問題,也謝謝你一開始的話。很高興再次見到你。關於 ROE 的議題,如同我們一直提到的——我會回答你的問題,但我會先加上一段免責聲明(disclaimer)。
We avoid giving guidance of ROE because there is a lot of variables at the end of the day that affect accounting. We like to talk about value creation, and that depends on the cost of equity, the cost of capital. In our opinion, the cost of capital is 14.5%. That's the best information that we have in our models, and we look perpetual instruments in the market. We have the modeling that is proprietary. So the spread between profitability and cost of equity, in fact, is where we are focusing. And all the incentives of the bank are placed in value creation. So that's a relevant metric for management that brings discipline and long-term vision and always focus in the creation of value.
我們避免提供 ROE 指引(guidance),因為最終會影響會計結果的變數很多。我們更喜歡談價值創造(value creation),而這取決於股權成本(cost of equity)、資本成本(cost of capital)。在我們看來,資本成本是 14.5%。這是我們模型中掌握到的最佳資訊,我們也會觀察市場上的永久性工具(perpetual instruments)。我們有自有的建模(proprietary modeling)。因此,獲利能力與股權成本之間的利差,才是我們真正聚焦之處。本行所有的激勵機制都放在價值創造上。所以這對管理層而言是一個重要指標,能帶來紀律與長期視角,並始終聚焦於價值創造。
In the guidance that we gave at the beginning of the year, there is a profitability above 20%, and we are delivering this ROE recurrently. So if you ask me, do I foresee any problems in regards to profitability? If we work with the operations that we have right now, no. We're still going to deliver a profitability that is important all throughout the next quarters.
在我們年初給出的指引中,獲利能力在 20% 以上,而我們也持續交付這樣的經常性 ROE。所以如果你問我:我是否預見獲利能力會有任何問題?以我們目前的營運狀況來看,沒有。我們在接下來幾季仍會交出相當可觀的獲利能力。
Of course, there's going to be some volatility because there is an amount of variables that compose the ROE of the bank. It's not just Brazil, Latin America, there is all the lines. But speaking of the guidance, the best answer that I can give you, we are comfortable with the guidance that is there. We reaffirm the guidance. But I think that the challenge is looking at the future, and we've seen with the service line with the insurance, they're very much connected with the activity.
當然,仍會有一些波動,因為構成銀行 ROE 的變數很多。不只是巴西、拉丁美洲,還有所有各條業務線。但就指引而言,我能給你的最佳答案是:我們對現有指引感到有信心。我們重申該指引。不過我認為挑戰在於展望未來;我們也看到在服務線與保險方面,它們與經濟活動高度連動。
That's where we're going to see the biggest challenge at the end of the year because it depends on the activities of capital markets, it depends of TPV and credit cards, it depends on our capacity to continue to grow with insurance. And it seems that we're going to be growing the bottom line all years throughout the years, we doubled the insurance results. There is a dynamic of activity that is going to be important in the future, the capital markets we see volumes amongst 30%, 40% weaker. A lot of people saw that in the past. So the dynamic in this line is that we're going to have to observe closer in the next quarters.
這將是我們在年底看到最大挑戰的地方,因為它取決於資本市場的活動,取決於TPV與信用卡,取決於我們持續透過保險成長的能力。而看起來我們在這些年裡每一年都會讓淨利成長,我們把保險的成果翻倍了。未來有一個活動動能將會很重要;我們看到資本市場的量能大約弱了30%、40%。很多人過去也看過這種情況。因此,這條線的動態是:接下來幾個季度我們必須更密切地觀察。
In the margin with the client, you saw the effects that I highlighted. So the working days and not working days, we have the working capital. So the margin core grows, grows importantly. There is a guidance of portfolio that we are still comfortable with what was published. Cost of credit, which is also an important lever for the profitability, we reaffirm the guidance. So looking at everything else that we just published, we are still comfortable that we're going to try and deliver the results that are implicit in the guidance.
在客戶利差方面,你看到了我剛才強調的影響。因此,工作日與非工作日,我們有營運資金的因素。所以核心利差成長,而且是顯著成長。我們對於已發布的投資組合指引仍然感到安心。信用成本也是獲利能力的重要槓桿,我們重申該指引。因此,綜合我們剛發布的其他內容來看,我們仍然有信心,將努力交付指引所隱含的成果。
Of course, the challenges are big, as you've seen, all the points that I just mentioned, but we are still very disciplined and focused to deliver the results. And I think the profitability long term depends on this variability of the cost of equity.
當然,挑戰很大,正如你所看到的,我剛提到的所有要點都是如此,但我們仍然非常自律並專注於交付成果。我認為長期的獲利能力取決於股權成本(cost of equity)的這種變動性。
If structurally the interest rate will drop in Brazil, assuming that the war ends, that the exchange rate is in the threshold that is current, that inflation succeeds and the Central Bank can do a relevant monetary adjustment that will open more activity will improve the COE. And it's not just the interest rate here in Brazil, it's the interest rate, the environment, institutional environment that makes the difference in the cost of equity and legal security.
如果從結構上看巴西的利率會下降,假設戰爭結束、匯率維持在目前的門檻水準、通膨受控,且中央銀行能進行相關的貨幣調整以帶動更多活動,將會改善COE。而且不只是巴西的利率,還包括利率環境與制度環境,這些因素會在股權成本與法律保障上產生差異。
If we can work well with that, it's expected that part of that spread between the COI and the ROE will go to the clients. So we can be more competitive, and the efficiency agenda is vital. So we can have more conditions to compete and more pricing power and maintain a part of that efficiency that goes to the clients. So that's not a conclusive answer, but an answer is that is general, and we are very comfortable with the profitability. We will deliver the profitability above 20% without giving any guidance with the ROE.
如果我們能把這件事做好,預期COI與ROE之間利差的一部分會回饋給客戶。因此我們可以更具競爭力,而效率議程至關重要。如此一來,我們就有更多條件競爭、擁有更強的定價能力,同時保留一部分效率成果並回饋給客戶。所以這不是一個定論式的答案,而是一個較為概括的回答;我們對獲利能力非常有信心。我們將在不對ROE提供任何指引的情況下,交付高於20%的獲利能力。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Okay. Let's go to the third question. Marcelo Mizrahi, BBI.
好的。我們來到第三個問題。BBI 的 Marcelo Mizrahi。
Marcelo Mizrahi - Analyst
Marcelo Mizrahi - Analyst
Question about delinquency. So the macro data that we've seen in the delinquency has been intensifying, and that slide that you just mentioned is great, so we can see the difference of how the bank is performing in regards to the market. But the bank doesn't run alone.
問題關於逾期/違約。就我們看到的宏觀逾期數據而言,情況正在加劇,而你剛提到的那張投影片很棒,讓我們可以看到銀行相對於市場的表現差異。但銀行並不是單獨運作的。
So I would like to understand, looking at the perspectives of the year and the portfolio, you said that you're at ease with the guidance, but the dynamic of the beginning of the year, the first quarter in regards to the dynamics of the guidance, the quality of credit of the market itself, is it better? Is it worse than what Itau expected when you assembled the guidance?
因此我想了解,從今年與投資組合的展望來看,你說你對指引感到安心,但就年初的動態、第一季相對於指引動態、市場本身的信用品質而言,是否更好?是否比 Itaú 在制定指引時所預期的更差?
So the point from the standpoint of macro of delinquency, the issue worries enough so you can be more cautious and have more difficulty getting to the guidance of the growth of credit. How do you see specifically delinquency of the natural persons in the beginning of the year? And well, we see that the numbers of the bank are doing well, but the growth of the portfolio in the next quarters.
也就是說,從宏觀逾期的角度,這個問題是否已經讓你們擔憂到需要更保守,並且更難達到信貸成長的指引?你如何具體看待年初自然人(個人)逾期的情況?另外,我們看到銀行的數字表現良好,但接下來幾個季度投資組合的成長呢?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
So thank you, Marcelo, for the questions. Well, objectively speaking, the conditions from the (inaudible) are worse than the beginning of the year. And objectively speaking, before we talk about the portfolio itself, macroeconomics are worse, specifically because of the geopolitical events. January, February were months that were very much aligned with the guidance and right at the beginning of February.
Marcelo,謝謝你的問題。客觀來說,(聽不清)方面的條件比年初更差。客觀來說,在我們談投資組合本身之前,宏觀經濟更差,特別是因為地緣政治事件。一月、二月的情況與指引非常一致,而且就在二月初。
And from then on, there is a war in the Middle East, volatility in the price of oil, more uncertainties in regards to inflation, in regards to the price of energy, transportation, all the issue of fertilizers in agricultural manufacturing chain, deceleration of global growth, which impacts Brazil naturally. There is a series of new factors that didn't exist at the beginning of the year when we did the guidance.
從那之後,中東爆發戰爭、油價波動、對通膨的不確定性增加,對能源價格、運輸的疑慮增加,還有肥料在農業製造鏈中的整體問題,全球成長放緩,自然也影響巴西。有一系列新的因素是在我們年初制定指引時不存在的。
On the other side of the same coin is the discipline of doing the provisions competitively. So the cases that we provision throughout, these are cases that we know. And we've planned to have done advances and provisions depending, of course, on situations and new information, new situations throughout the year, number one.
同一枚硬幣的另一面,是我們以具競爭力的方式、以紀律來進行提存。也就是說,我們一路提存的案例,都是我們了解的案例。我們也規劃了要進行提前提存與提存安排,當然會依據情況與全年出現的新資訊、新情勢來調整,這是第一點。
Number two, our portfolio, by definition, was built with a more resilient public to the cycles that we're seeing right now. Evidently, the interest rates with a restrictive interest rates, they generate effects in all segments. And as you said, we're not isolated from the world. We have a credit portfolio of BRL1.5 trillion, BRL1.3 trillion in Brazil. So it's evident that any worsening can have an impact in our portfolios.
第二點,我們的投資組合在定義上,是以對目前所見週期更具韌性的客群所建立。顯然,在緊縮利率環境下,利率會對所有分項產生影響。而如你所說,我們並非與世界隔絕。我們的信貸投資組合規模為1.5兆巴西雷亞爾,其中1.3兆在巴西。因此很明顯,任何惡化都可能對我們的投資組合造成影響。
Having said that, the portfolio was built in such a way that it is so resilient, so well managed from the standpoint of allocation segments, public sectors, volatility, clients that we understand that even so with this information, the best information that we have now, the guidance is reaffirmed.
話雖如此,投資組合的建構方式使其具備高度韌性;從配置分項、產業部門、波動性,以及我們所理解的客戶等角度來看,都管理得很好。因此,即便在這些資訊之下,依我們目前掌握的最佳資訊,我們仍重申該指引。
Our indications of delays are well behaved in the first quarter, which is a relevant indicator for the metro (inaudible) our individuals portfolio is important. Well, you talked about the opening of the short term, it gives you a good visibility on how we are doing and the performance. So we expect that with the expected loss is fundamental and the expected loss is impacted by the short delay delinquencies.
我們第一季的短期逾期指標表現良好,這是對宏觀(聽不清)而言的重要指標;我們的個人投資組合也很重要。你提到短期的變化,它能讓你清楚看到我們的狀況與表現。因此我們預期,預期損失(expected loss)是關鍵,而預期損失會受到短期逾期的影響。
In the first quarter, we had a better second quarter of the series. It wasn't better from 23 to 24 -- 23 basis points in what we say, a pressured quarter because of the commitments of the [family] at the beginning of the year. So our expectation is that the long delay, specifically in the individuals is stable throughout the year, we do not see much a reality 10 months, nothing too relevant.
第一季,我們在該序列中出現了第二好的季度。並不是從23到24更好——我們所說的是23個基點;這是一個承壓的季度,因為年初家庭的各項支出承諾。因此我們的預期是:長期逾期,特別是在個人端,全年保持穩定;我們沒有看到10個月那種情況,沒有什麼太重大的變化。
In small SMEs, the portfolio is performing very well. The data given the characteristics that I just described, we expect that it can be 210, 190, something reasonable to imagine. We're not seeing a worsening that is not the mechanical effect of the government programs. And the big companies are events. So here is more difficult for you to foresee.
在小型SME(中小企業)方面,投資組合表現非常好。基於我剛描述的特性,我們預期可能在210、190左右,這是合理的想像。我們沒有看到超出政府計畫機械性影響之外的惡化。而大型企業則是事件驅動,因此在這裡更難預測。
We try to foresee as best as we can because we look at the balance sheet, we discuss with the companies. The management of provisions is super tempestuous, but events take place. Rarely, the client leaves from stage one to three. Rarely, it occurs, but it occurs. And we've seen in this quarter, it happened. So the most important thing is to be tempestuous in doing the adequate provisions and migrations and having a solid balance so we can face the ways up ahead.
我們會盡可能去預測,因為我們會看資產負債表、與企業討論。提存管理非常及時,但事件仍會發生。客戶很少會從第一階段直接跳到第三階段;很少發生,但確實會發生。我們在本季度就看到了。因此最重要的是:及時進行適當的提存與分期遷移,並維持穩健的資產負債表,以便面對前方的道路。
So besides the DRE, which is looking at the results, the [patrimony] account provisions and the balance is very well robust to face the challenges for the future. But the scenario from then to now is worse than at the beginning of the year. We are here with all the radars turned on and operating in the best way possible.
因此,除了損益表(DRE)反映的結果之外,(權益)(patrimony)科目的提存與資產負債表也非常強健,足以面對未來的挑戰。但從當時到現在的情境,確實比年初更差。我們在這裡已經把所有雷達都打開,並以最佳方式運作。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Now next question, Gustavo Schroden, Citibank.
下一個問題,Citibank 的 Gustavo Schroden。
Gustavo Schroden - Analyst
Gustavo Schroden - Analyst
Congratulations once again on the solid results and the predictability. I wanted to explore the growth of the credit portfolio in two specific products, Milton, the private consignado and payroll loan and SMEs that you're growing. So in our reading, there are two points that we would like to think. In the payroll loans, consignado, the private, there is the creation of caps. Last week, we had a specific point about the total cost effectiveness.
再次恭喜你們穩健的成果與可預測性。我想就兩個特定產品探討信貸投資組合的成長,Milton:私人 consignado(代扣薪貸款/薪資扣繳貸款)以及你們正在成長的SME(中小企業)。依我們的解讀,有兩點我們想思考。在薪資貸款、consignado、私人端方面,正在設立上限。上週我們有一個特定議題是關於總成本效益(total cost effectiveness)。
So I wanted you to explore this issue. How do you foresee the issue of appetite in the private payroll loan and in the small, medium micro companies, the issue of the support to the government programs? We know that that has helped in the delinquency in that sector. And even so, as you highlighted, we expect a worsening 10, 20 bps in the portfolio. Do you foresee sustainability in government programs another one, two years? That would be my two questions about the two points on the credit portfolio.
所以我想請你探討這個議題。你如何看待民營薪資扣繳貸款以及中小微企業在需求意願(appetite)方面的情況,以及政府方案支持的問題?我們知道這些方案有助於降低該領域的逾期。即便如此,正如你所強調的,我們預期投資組合會惡化 10、20 個基點。你是否預見政府方案在未來一到兩年仍具可持續性?以上是我針對信貸投資組合兩個面向的兩個問題。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Gustavo. Great to see you again. Let me start by the order of your questions, the [payroll]. First point that we'd like to highlight way back when the product was launched, I had talks to investors. In the call itself, I talked to investors of how the bank sees the evolution of the payroll loan CLT.
謝謝你,Gustavo。很高興再次見到你。我先依照你提問的順序回答,先談[薪資扣繳貸款]。第一點,我想強調的是,早在產品推出之初,我就曾與投資人交流。在電話會議上,我也向投資人談到銀行如何看待 CLT 薪資扣繳貸款的演進。
First, Itau was a leader, 30% of the market. It was a market of BRL40 billion. So we understood that there would be an expansion of that market. It would be natural that we will lose share through the cycles, but we would still be more relevant in the payroll loan private, not from the standpoint of share, but volume of the portfolio. In fact, that happened.
首先,Itaú 曾是領導者,市占 30%。當時市場規模約為 400 億雷亞爾。因此我們理解這個市場會擴張。隨著週期推進,我們自然會失去一些市占,但在民營薪資扣繳貸款上,我們仍會更具相關性——不是從市占角度,而是從投資組合規模角度。事實上,確實如此。
So if you look at the records, we are the leaders of the payroll loan private with a large advantage in regards to the competition, and we assumed the market share today, which is above 20% with a portfolio of approximately BRL20 billion, a portfolio of BRL12 billion when the program was launched. So we had a growth of BRL8 billion approximately of portfolio with important productions throughout the period. But the strategy since the inception was important for us to get here. First, be able to launch with the launch. So the cost of modernized platforms, technology, we had an advantage comparative of starting right at the beginning.
因此,如果你看紀錄,我們在民營薪資扣繳貸款方面仍是領先者,且相較競爭對手有很大優勢;我們目前的市占在 20% 以上,投資組合約 200 億雷亞爾,而在方案推出時投資組合約 120 億雷亞爾。也就是說,我們的投資組合約成長了 80 億雷亞爾,期間有重要的放款量(productions)。但自一開始以來的策略對我們能走到今天非常關鍵。第一,能夠在推出時就同步上線。因此在現代化平台、科技等成本投入上,我們在一開始就具備相對優勢。
It wasn't necessarily in this way for the system as a whole. Of course, that generates a comparative advantage, but that is not the main advantage. Historically, we always evaluated very well. We've had harsh learnings in the past and the company's portfolio as a whole, we had difficult cycles in the retail and wholesale and this logic and risk matrix, which is the risk of the companies with the risk of the private credit. This combination is very important to define what is the equity play, where we want to work and where our strategy is going to be built. And in this strategy that we designed the portfolio from then on.
整個系統未必都是如此。當然,這會帶來相對優勢,但這不是主要優勢。歷史上,我們一直做得很好的,是風險評估。我們過去也有過深刻的教訓;就公司投資組合整體而言,我們在零售與批發端都經歷過艱難週期,而這套邏輯與風險矩陣——把企業風險與民營信貸風險結合——對於界定我們要做哪一類股權/資本配置(equity play)、要在哪些領域經營、以及策略要如何建構,非常重要。我們也正是在這個策略下,從那時起設計投資組合。
Two important commentaries. Well, delinquency, I just talked about over [90] is substantially below what we observed in the market. Two, we have a strategy that is very focused in the clients that have bank account in the bank. We know them. We are the main one, and we can manage the risk management in a different way. Growth was given there. If you see the average rate practice, you can see that in the list of the banks, ours is second to last, second most cheapest rate that is offered to the bank, to the client.
兩點重要評論。第一,逾期方面,我剛提到超過[90]天的逾期率,明顯低於我們在市場上觀察到的水準。第二,我們的策略非常聚焦於在本行開戶的客戶。我們了解他們;我們是其主要往來銀行,因此能以不同方式進行風險管理。成長也主要來自這裡。如果你看平均實際利率,你會看到在各家銀行的列表中,我們的利率倒數第二低,是提供給客戶的第二便宜利率。
And two issues. First, focusing on the client, which is what we are defending. If this is the best product, I can service the client in the best way possible, and I can have the lowest price. Why am I not offering this product beforehand? That's the first decision that we've had. Second, if I can work with the level of guarantees that is a combination of the individuals and companies, I have to operate with competitive rates because delinquency is going to be lower and the value creation and return is going to be very adequate.
另外兩個議題。第一,聚焦客戶,這正是我們所主張的。如果這是最好的產品,我就能以最佳方式服務客戶,並提供最低價格。那我為什麼不優先提供這個產品?這是我們做出的第一個決策。第二,如果我能在個人與企業的擔保組合下運作,我就必須以具競爭力的利率經營,因為逾期會更低,而價值創造與回報也會非常合適。
Lastly, we have to understand the full offering of the client. I don't see this product in an isolated way. I look at this product and I look at all the offering of credit that that client has, all the products, so we can do a pricing and a risk management with the vision of the client. I do not ignore.
最後,我們必須理解客戶的完整產品供給。我不會孤立地看待這個產品。我會同時看這個產品,以及該客戶所有的信貸供給、所有產品,這樣我們才能以客戶視角進行定價與風險管理。我不會忽視這一點。
Lastly, there is always a risk because if I don't do this with my good clients or the clients that we just define that we need to grow, all of the target ones, somebody does it, I'm going to be subordinated. So we look at the total risk exposure, but we look at subordination that is very important. So the issue of the cap, which is your question, the impact is [irrelevant].
最後,總是存在風險:如果我不把這個產品提供給我的優質客戶,或我們剛定義需要成長的客戶、所有目標客群,就會有人去做,而我就會處於次順位(subordinated)。因此我們會看總風險曝險,但也會看次順位風險,這非常重要。至於你問到的利率上限(cap)問題,其影響是[不顯著]。
Regardless, while being very transparent, we do not think there is adequate caps in credit operations. We know that that produces something artificial. You remove products of the market. And this is a product that is more adequate for competitive prices.
不過,坦白說,我們不認為在信貸操作中設置上限是恰當的。我們知道那會產生某種人為效果,會把一些產品從市場上移除。而這個產品更適合以具競爭力的價格提供。
Having said that, for the mechanic of the cap that is established in our portfolio, so with the data that we operate with the lowest rates of the market, our average rates are below the average rates practiced by the market. There's going to be some convergence and it's going to be the calculation of one standard deviation. I think that that calibration is going to be fundamental. Because of risk, we rather calibrate lower, getting the cap [if] we work with the other products that removed other publics from the market, the INSS. And this is the more competitive credit. So I have that issue in regards to cap for our portfolio. And the way that we are growing, we're very comfortable with the current conditions. That's one of the questions on the payroll loan.
話雖如此,就我們投資組合中既定的上限機制而言,由於我們以市場最低利率運作,我們的平均利率低於市場平均實際利率。未來會出現一定程度的收斂,並會以一個標準差的方式來計算。我認為這個校準將非常關鍵。出於風險考量,我們寧可把校準設得更低,以符合上限[即便]我們同時經營其他產品,而那些產品把其他客群(例如 INSS)從市場中移除。這是更具競爭力的信貸。因此,這就是上限對我們投資組合的影響。而以我們目前的成長方式來看,我們對現行條件非常安心。這就是關於薪資扣繳貸款的其中一個問題。
The second question was SMEs. We talking about the government programs. The programs were very well successful. (inaudible), FGI, ProCredit, and we were once again focusing on the client. If I need to service the client well, I need to get them to access -- give them access to more competitive products with the best prices so they can have capacity to prosper in the longer cycle.
第二個問題是中小企業(SMEs),你提到政府方案。這些方案非常成功。(聽不清),FGI、ProCredit,而我們再次聚焦於客戶。如果我需要把客戶服務好,我就需要讓他們能夠取得——讓他們取得——更具競爭力、價格最好的產品,讓他們在更長的週期中有能力成長與繁榮。
We are leaders in the availability of those government programs, all the clients and all the programs. Last year, there was a return of the FGI because we proposed at the time for BNDES for the government a higher utilization of the first laws that were established, and we can do a leverage that is even bigger. The government is aware that we have opportunity, and we have a preponderant role in this decision. (inaudible) and others understand this dynamic, and they propose the relevant volumes for the FTI. We applied resources.
我們在這些政府方案的可得性方面是領導者,涵蓋所有客戶與所有方案。去年 FGI 有所回歸,因為我們當時向 BNDES 與政府建議,提高最初所制定規則的使用率,從而能做出更大的槓桿。政府也意識到我們有機會,且我們在這項決策中扮演主導角色。(聽不清)以及其他機構理解這個動態,並為 FTI 提出相應的相關規模。我們也投入了資源。
The thermal efficient is lower, but however, recently with talks with the Ministry of Economy, they understood the difficulty of this program. They had an additional investment, BRL2 billion within FTI that brings to the market another BRL25 billion of lines. And this is the first of many that can happen throughout the year because of the government programs, the most efficient were (inaudible) FTI.
熱效率(thermal efficient)較低,但近期在與經濟部的對話中,他們理解了這個方案的困難。他們在 FTI 中額外投入 20 億雷亞爾,為市場帶來另外 250 億雷亞爾的額度。這是今年可能發生的多次措施中的第一次;在政府方案中,效率最高的是(聽不清)FTI。
With the information nowadays, we don't see any stoppage of (inaudible). We are going to keep sustainability. But at some point, they're going to have to do a translation of the portfolio, and it depends on the appetite of this government or the plans that are up ahead. So we are going to have to follow closely. And it's difficult to see for the future, but at least for the current year and the next one, these programs are going to be relevant with this risk with the clients and delinquency. And the mechanic delay that you commented, it has that effect of the 10, 20 bps. It doesn't generate that effect with the expected loss because the guarantees are very strong. So it doesn't affect the cost of credit.
以目前資訊來看,我們看不到(聽不清)會停止。我們將維持可持續性。但在某個時間點,他們必須對投資組合做出轉換(translation),而這取決於本屆政府的意願(appetite)或未來的規劃。因此我們必須密切追蹤。未來很難判斷,但至少在今年與明年,這些方案仍將重要,並在客戶風險與逾期方面發揮作用。你提到的那個機制性延遲,確實會帶來 10、20 個基點的影響;但它不會對預期損失造成同樣影響,因為擔保非常強。因此不會影響信貸成本。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, next question, Renato Meloni. The floor is yours.
好的,下一個問題,Renato Meloni。請發言。
Renato Meloni
Renato Meloni
Congratulations on the resilience of the results. The scenario is difficult. I wanted to focus on the individuals portfolio, the additional information. I'm looking at the graph that you're seeing of leverage of individuals. What is your expectation within the cycle in terms of increased reduction, maintenance of this indicator, which is important?
恭喜你們的業績展現韌性。情境很艱難。我想聚焦在個人投資組合的補充資訊。我正在看你們展示的個人槓桿圖表。你對於在本輪週期中,這個重要指標的上升、下降或維持,有什麼預期?
And I am thinking, given the focus that you are doing with the selected public, at what point do you get to a limitation of growth of these portfolios? And if you can also expand on your comment about the SMEs, thinking about the cycle, another one, two years, these programs can sustain a similar level of growth, but when that extends or extinguishes? Do you think that the cycle of credit can be at a moment that is more prolific and even leveraging? Can you expand more on the universe of small companies that you are lending money?
我在想,鑑於你們目前對所選定的大眾客群所做的聚焦,你們在什麼時點會遇到這些投資組合成長的限制?另外也請你延伸談談你對中小企業(SMEs)的評論:從景氣循環來看,再過一到兩年,這些方案或計畫可以維持類似的成長水準,但之後會如何延續或消退?你認為信用循環是否可能處在一個更為蓬勃、甚至更能帶動槓桿的階段?也請你更進一步說明你們放款給小型企業的範圍與客群。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Renato. Good to see you. Thank you for your question. First, in the credit portfolios of the individuals, we still see the capacity of growth. We've grown two digits. We've managed to get into the clients that we wanted that we had the opportunity of growth, always getting into this logic of target clients, long-term view. We are very comfortable with the strength, the capacity of growing in this resilient public, number one.
謝謝你,Renato。很高興見到你。謝謝你的問題。首先,在個人客戶的信貸投資組合方面,我們仍然看到成長的能力。我們已經達到兩位數成長。我們成功觸及到我們想要、且我們有成長機會的客戶,始終遵循目標客群的邏輯與長期視角。我們對於在這個具韌性的客群中持續成長的實力與能力感到非常有信心,這是第一點。
Number two, I think that the migration that we've done of one Itau brought opportunities that are target like 5 million clients. And there, we didn't have a full bank relationship with the clients. And we've seen a great deal of this growth that we've observed, Uniclass and mainly (inaudible) from this public that didn't have -- had one product with us and now over 60% of the base has three products with the bank, which shows that we are starting to operate with the clients that are monoline. They didn't have a full bank experience, and now they have a full bank experience. And that is a lot of volume of clients and opportunities for us to continue to grow with -- and we are growing well in the market.
第二點,我認為我們在「one Itau」的遷移帶來了機會,目標大約是500萬名客戶。在那裡,我們過去與客戶之間並沒有完整的主辦行關係。我們觀察到的成長有很大一部分,來自Uniclass以及主要來自(聽不清)這些客群——他們過去在我們這裡只有一項產品,而現在超過60%的客戶基礎已經在本行持有三項產品。這顯示我們開始與那些原本是單一產品(monoline)的客戶運作;他們過去沒有完整的銀行體驗,現在有了完整的銀行體驗。這帶來了大量客戶與機會,讓我們可以持續成長——而且我們在市場上的成長表現良好。
As part of our strategy, we are growing in the segments that we are giving focus. We've grown with our products and now let's talk about the vision of the payroll loan. The mix of funding, if you look how much do we have in the savings and the real estate, the structure of funding growing with the prices, imagining that the full market practice is the same one, the marginal cost of capture gives more volume of the savings and less allocation in the map, it brings competitiveness in the price. So in the same price, our return is higher by definition, and that strengthens, obviously, the franchise and the relationship with the client.
作為我們策略的一部分,我們在聚焦的細分市場中持續成長。我們的產品帶動了成長。現在談談薪資扣繳貸款(payroll loan)的觀點。就資金來源的組合而言,如果你看我們在儲蓄與不動產相關資金上的占比,隨著利率變動,資金結構也在調整;假設整體市場作法一致,邊際吸收成本(marginal cost of capture)因為儲蓄存款量增加、在其他配置上減少,會提升價格競爭力。因此在相同定價下,我們的報酬率按定義會更高,這也就強化了我們的特許經營優勢以及與客戶的關係。
We will naturally continue to operate with the product, and we operate clean. The payroll loan is an important lever, the real estate as well, some products that we've been cautious. Vehicles, for example, we've seen volatility. We are servicing the clients and this is a more volatility segment. And the credit cards, regardless of the derisking that we've done, we've grown in a relevant way with a target public transitionality that is very relevant. So I see opportunities to be able to grow. I don't see any limitation.
我們自然會持續經營這些產品,而且我們的操作相對「乾淨」。薪資扣繳貸款是一個重要的槓桿,不動產也是;有些產品我們則更為謹慎,例如車貸,我們看到波動性。我們仍在服務客戶,但這是一個波動較大的細分市場。至於信用卡,不論我們已做的去風險(derisking),我們仍以相當顯著的幅度成長,且目標客群的「轉換性」(transitionality)非常重要。因此我看到仍有成長機會,我不認為會有任何限制。
There is an additional fact that I'd like to state. And the individuals, we see nominal reductions in the cost with an inflationary pressure that is enormous. So just with the time, with the cost, it is an extraordinary result with all the pressure that we have with negotiations, the banking inflation, which is higher than the IPCA rate, even though with that, we've worked very strongly.
另外我還想補充一點。在個人業務上,我們在通膨壓力非常巨大的情況下,仍看到成本名目下降。因此僅就時間推移與成本而言,在我們面臨各種談判壓力、銀行業通膨(高於IPCA通膨率)的情況下,這仍是非常突出的成果;即便如此,我們也做了非常強力的工作。
And why am I saying that? Because Itau Digital, which is where we work with the client where the digital service is preponderance, it starts to work with an efficiency level that is ever more competitive, and that generates options to work with publics that I couldn't service well because my efficiency level didn't allow me to assume additional losses.
我為什麼要提這個?因為Itau Digital——也就是我們以數位服務為主來服務客戶的地方——開始以越來越具競爭力的效率水準運作,這讓我們有選項去服務一些過去我無法有效服務的客群,因為當時我的效率水準不允許我承擔額外的損失。
So as we evolve in this agenda, I can work with public that I didn't work before with the same appetite and competitiveness. So opportunity to grow in the private persons is enormous. We still see opportunities, and I am very happy with all the investments, refreshments and the strategic vision on individuals. We are working along with the plan, but this is a year that is important for the execution.
因此,隨著我們在這個議程上持續演進,我可以用同樣的風險偏好與競爭力去服務以前不會服務的客群。所以個人客戶的成長機會非常大。我們仍看到機會,而且我對於所有投資、調整(refreshments)以及個人業務的策略視角感到非常滿意。我們正按計畫推進,但今年是執行非常重要的一年。
I'm very optimistic about our capacity to deliver and long-term view. And SMEs, which is the second point of your second question, it's very difficult to foresee where these programs end. The program is definitive. So we don't have that discussion of the commitment of resources. FGO depends on the appetite and the conditions of the market because if in one or two years, we have a situation where the small and medium are going to need support with the government programs, it doesn't matter.
我對我們交付成果的能力以及長期視角非常樂觀。至於中小企業(SMEs),也就是你第二個問題的第二點,很難預測這些方案會在何時結束。這個方案是長期性的(definitive),所以我們不會去討論資源承諾的問題。FGO取決於市場的風險偏好與條件,因為如果在一到兩年後,小型與中型企業需要政府方案的支持,那也無妨。
I know that they're going to understand the effectiveness of this program, the cost of allocation of the public resources. It's very difficult to say where and if these programs are going to decelerate. With the information that we have now, they're going to continue to exist in a relevant way because they've been very effective specifically for the SMEs.
我知道他們會理解這個方案的有效性,以及公共資源配置的成本。很難說這些方案會在何處、以及是否會放緩。以我們目前掌握的資訊來看,這些方案將會以相當重要的方式持續存在,因為它們對中小企業特別有效。
Well, in the segment of the middle outside of that, we grow with less dependency on these programs. The participation in the portfolio is a fraction of SMEs and SMEs. We know that these programs are key for the growth with quality, competitive pricing, adequate deadlines for the needs of these clients and with a risk portfolio that is well defended.
至於除此之外的中型企業(middle)細分市場,我們的成長對這些方案的依賴較低。這些方案在投資組合中的占比只是中小企業與中小企業(SMEs and SMEs)的一小部分。我們知道,這些方案對於在維持品質的前提下成長至關重要:具競爭力的定價、符合客戶需求的適當期限,以及風險組合也有良好的防護。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, now the next question, Daniel Vaz, Safra.
好的,下一個問題,Daniel Vaz,Safra。
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Daniel Vaz - Analyst
Congratulations on the resilience of the bank. Thank you for sharing new data on the credit. It's important to see a bit of your -- how you're working with the capital quality of credit. So I wanted to explore two things that we usually do not mention, which are vehicles and the payroll loan, INSS and vehicle loans. Vehicles, the hiring of the bank, they dropped 13% year on year.
恭喜銀行展現韌性。謝謝你分享新的信貸數據。能更了解你們如何處理信貸的資本品質很重要。因此我想探討兩個我們通常不太提到的項目:車貸與薪資扣繳貸款(INSS與車貸)。車貸方面,銀行的承作量年減13%。
In the market, if you look at the level of [bottom], the disbursement grew 25%. It's very big in terms of financial activity. So I wanted you to make me understand better the vehicle loans. Is there any opportunity of attack? How do you want to position from now on? Or if the product has some gaps that you don't mind guidance, well, if you can explore the call?
在市場上,如果你看([bottom])的水準,撥款成長了25%。就金融活動而言這非常大。因此我想請你幫我更好地理解車貸:是否有任何進攻機會?你們接下來想如何定位?或者這個產品是否存在一些缺口,而你不介意在電話會議上提供指引——如果可以的話,請你在本次電話會議中多談一些?
Second, in the payroll loan, INSS, we had important changes with this rollout 1.0. Well, with the new margin of the payroll loan, at least 35.5%, which is 45% with credit cards now to 30% in five years when you're going to have the phase-in of this new regulation. But the credit card losing importance and does that open more space to play with more or less with this product in this new regulation?
第二點,在INSS薪資扣繳貸款方面,隨著這次rollout 1.0我們有一些重要變化。嗯,隨著新的薪資扣繳貸款額度(margin),至少35.5%,而信用卡現在是45%,並且在五年內隨著這項新規逐步導入(phase-in)將降到30%。在信用卡重要性下降的情況下,這是否會在新規之下為這個產品帶來更多操作空間(更多或更少)?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Daniel. Thank you for the question. It's great to see you. Vehicles, as I commented very quickly in the last question, this is a segment that we work a lot. The bank was a leader in the past and with relevant volumes.
謝謝你,Daniel。謝謝你的問題。很高興見到你。車貸方面,如同我在上一題很快提到的,這是我們投入很多的細分市場。銀行過去曾是領導者,且量體相當可觀。
In the past, we've had the portfolio of BRL60 billion with nominal values. And if you mentioned the values today, over BRL100 billion if we've just [add the correction] of the revenue in the past. Well, this is a segment that is very volatile. So when you see the commitment compromise of the income of the families, we've seen restrictive interest rates, the financing of vehicles naturally becomes more risky.
過去我們的投資組合名目金額曾達到600億雷亞爾(BRL60 billion)。如果你把過去的收入做([add the correction])調整,今天提到的數字會超過1,000億雷亞爾(BRL100 billion)。這個細分市場波動性非常高。因此當你看到家庭收入承諾度(commitment compromise)上升、利率偏高且具限制性時,車輛融資自然會變得更具風險。
Second, recovery of the guarantees. There is a new legal framework, but there are still stages to be fulfilled, the legal proceedings. So it's not operating in full power under the best conditions thus far. So I always say that the vehicle is a real guarantee with wheels. So you need to find the vehicle and the recovery rate is not so high.
第二,擔保品回收。雖然有新的法律框架,但仍有一些階段需要完成,包括法律程序。因此到目前為止,它尚未在最佳條件下全力運作。所以我總是說,車子是一種「有輪子的實體擔保」。你需要找到車輛,而回收率也沒有那麼高。
So the market changed the dynamic of the prices. In the past, what was the strength of the market was practicing high prices. We see a convergence in the prices and the spreads are very tight. So at the end of the day, our logic for the value creation and capital allocation and risk management, we think that this is a business that is less promising, so to speak, from what we see in other businesses and that we see opportunities.
因此市場的定價動態已經改變。過去市場的特徵是採取較高的價格;我們現在看到價格趨於收斂,利差(spreads)非常緊。總而言之,基於我們對價值創造、資本配置與風險管理的邏輯,我們認為相較於我們在其他業務中看到的機會,這門生意可以說是較不具吸引力。
Having said that, we want to service the clients very well. Our client that has a good risk that wants to do the vehicle finance, we need to be present. We need to service the client with a one-stop shop and need to offer the client all the products that the bank has. Financing is one of them of vehicles. But getting the first or second place with a reseller, with a competitive market, assembly lines getting into the used banks, increasing the deadlines with the used vehicles, very strong competition.
話雖如此,我們希望把客戶服務做到最好。對於風險良好、想做車輛融資的客戶,我們必須在場。我們需要以一站式服務來服務客戶,並提供銀行所擁有的所有產品。車輛融資是其中之一。但要在經銷商端取得第一或第二的位置,在競爭激烈的市場中,組裝廠產線也進入二手車銀行業務、二手車期限拉長,競爭非常強。
We rather lose share than lose money. So that's our strategy. In the end, to be very disciplined in the risk allocation, even though that produces the effects that you commented, reduction of share risk, and this is something that we're very comfortable because we think that the risk return relationship is not adequate, so we'd rather reduce the portfolio. That's the first point.
我們寧可失去市占,也不願意虧錢。所以這就是我們的策略。歸根結底,我們在風險配置上會非常自律,即便這會產生你所提到的影響——市占風險下降——我們也很自在,因為我們認為風險報酬關係並不合適,所以寧可縮小投資組合。這是第一點。
Second point about the INSS payroll loan. That decision was made with Desenrola. It's in the best interest of the families to try and get the level of commitment compromise of the income through time. It's a transition. These are new information 40 hours ago that we received this information. So we need to understand the impact in our portfolio.
第二點,關於 INSS 薪資扣款貸款。這個決定是在 Desenrola 的背景下做出的。從家庭的最佳利益出發,是希望隨時間降低收入被承諾/占用的程度。這是一個過渡期。這些是我們在 40 小時前才收到的新資訊。因此我們需要了解對我們投資組合的影響。
It's early to say because this is a transition that is long. You do it at the beginning, the reduction of the 45 to 40. You bring the 5 plus 5, the 10 to the credit card to the limit, but then you have the reduction of 2 percentage points in the year, getting to 30 in five years. So that's the end game that you mentioned. Let's try and understand how that can be. And this is an opportunity because we do not operate with the payroll loan credit card. So the INSS is important for us.
現在下結論還太早,因為這是一個很長的過渡。你一開始把比例從 45 降到 40。你把 5 加 5,也就是 10,轉到信用卡額度上限,但之後每年再降 2 個百分點,五年後降到 30。這就是你提到的最終目標。我們要試著理解這會如何發生。而這也是一個機會,因為我們不經營薪資扣款貸款信用卡。所以 INSS 對我們很重要。
We practically just produce at Rede. We do not produce with the others because of the caps, the commissions, the financial balance. If the return on capital was below than what it should be. We see players aggressive with the conditions is more focusing on generation of revenue than return of capital, and we are very disciplined in regards to that. And the caps have removed publics from the market.
我們幾乎只在 Rede 進行承作。我們不和其他方承作,因為有上限、佣金以及財務平衡的因素。如果資本回報低於應有水準。我們看到有些參與者在條件上很激進,更著重於收入生成而非資本回報,而我們在這方面非常自律。而這些上限也把一些客群移出了市場。
So with the reduction structurally of the interest rates, it depends on the evolution of the reduction of the caps, we can maybe or not depending on the decision on the cap to bring new publics for the market, and there is a review of the blockage of benefits the review of processes. We are working strongly with the clients to facilitate this process, and we managed to lead, in terms of production, the INSS market through the network of the bank.
因此,隨著利率結構性下降,是否能把新的客群帶回市場,取決於上限下調的演進,也可能取決於對上限的決策。此外,還有對福利封鎖的檢討、流程的檢討。我們正與客戶密切合作以促進這個流程,而且我們也透過銀行的網絡,在 INSS 市場的產量/承作量方面取得領先。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Next question. We have Mario Pierry from BofA.
下一個問題。我們有來自 BofA 的 Mario Pierry。
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Congratulations on the results. We understand that this scenario in Brazil, not just Brazil, but is of uncertainty. And it's interesting to say that the bank can see the thresholds that are stable. So the question is regarding the efficiency level. You showed in Brazil, there is an efficiency level of 35%. And I've seen that you reduced the number of branches in 15% in the last year. But the headcount just dropped 5%.
恭喜你們的業績。我們理解巴西的情境——不只是巴西——充滿不確定性。而有趣的是,銀行似乎看到一些門檻是穩定的。所以問題是關於效率水準。你們在巴西展示的效率水準是 35%。我也看到你們在過去一年把分行數量減少了 15%。但員工人數只下降了 5%。
So I'm thinking here, in terms of still being able to see improvements in the efficiency level, the bank should reduce more people, more employees. Do you see that? Or is there still a space to improve efficiency with operational improvements, reviews of contracts, et cetera? And so getting your perspective, what is the threshold that you can bring this efficiency level? And to have improvements, should you have more focus in the reduction of personnel?
所以我在想,就仍然能改善效率水準而言,銀行是否應該再減少人員、更多員工?你們有這樣的看法嗎?還是仍有空間透過營運改善、合約檢視等等來提升效率?想請教你們的觀點:你們能把這個效率水準帶到什麼門檻?而要改善的話,是否需要更聚焦於人員縮減?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Mario. Great to see you again. Thank you for the initial words. I always do the disclaimer that this efficiency level is really in the consolidated. So we need to look at the breakdown between wholesale and retail, wholesale with LatAm working with an efficiency level lower. So I would say, in the world of wholesale, to simplify, we run benchmark, global benchmark. We are first quartile, first 10 in efficiency level. Without opportunity, we are very disciplined to understand the -- well, highlighted by artificial intelligence, how can we advance more. So this is a constant agenda.
謝謝你,Mario。很高興再次見到你。也謝謝你一開始的話。我一向會先聲明,這個效率水準其實是合併口徑。因此我們需要看批發與零售的拆分;批發端加上拉美業務的效率水準更低。所以我會說,在批發業務的世界裡,為了簡化,我們是跑全球同業基準。我們在效率水準上位於第一四分位、前 10 名。並非沒有機會,我們非常自律地去理解——也在人工智慧的加持下——我們還能如何再前進。所以這是一個持續的議程。
In the retail, it's a game changer, the efficiency level. So every plan, I always say that even though the cost of the bank grows -- and let's get the middle point of the guidance this year. Even though we grow 13.5% if we look in the inside, the thermal sensation between the several business is very different. So in the individuals, where it's important that we reduce the efficiency level, and we got to 40%, that was an important reduction quarter-on-quarter, 40% of the efficiency level. When I look at individuals, I can observe that that's where we need.
在零售端,效率水準是改變遊戲規則的關鍵。所以每次談到計畫,我總是說,即便銀行成本在成長——以今年指引的中位數來看——即便我們成長 13.5%,如果看內部,各業務之間的「體感」差異非常大。所以在個人業務上,我們需要降低效率水準,而我們降到了 40%,這是很重要的季度環比下降,效率水準降到 40%。當我看個人業務時,我可以觀察到那就是我們需要著力的地方。
Well, I'm talking about retail as a whole, 40% and then there is companies and individuals. And individuals is where we need more competitiveness. So we see cost in this quarter. There is nominal reductions of costs in individuals, and this is very important news. And we still believe and there is important space to do the assessment, and this goes through a revision of value proposition, business model, Itau Digital, more focused, adjustment of footprint, 98% of our transactions are digital, 97%. The flow of visitation to the branches reduced from the pre-pandemic to now 70%.
嗯,我說的是整體零售,40%,然後裡面有公司與個人。個人端是我們需要更具競爭力的地方。所以我們看到本季的成本:個人端的成本名目上出現下降,這是非常重要的消息。我們仍然相信還有很大的評估空間,而這會透過價值主張的修訂、商業模式、Itaú Digital 更聚焦、據點版圖調整來實現;我們 98% 的交易是數位化的,97%。分行來訪流量從疫情前到現在下降了 70%。
That's the reduction of the monthly visits to the branches. So it's where the client is going that we are analyzing. It's not simply making a decision of reduction of branches. How do we adjust our -- it is how adjusting our model to best service our clients and having a more digital service specifically with these [products] where the efficiency level makes all the difference in the service is fundamental, so we can open the options here.
這就是每月到分行的來訪次數下降。所以我們正在分析客戶往哪裡去。這不只是做出減少分行的決定而已。我們要做的是如何調整我們的——也就是如何調整我們的模式,以便更好地服務客戶;並且提供更數位化的服務,特別是在這些[產品]上,效率水準對服務的影響至關重要,因此我們可以在這裡打開更多選項。
So this review of the model is being done as we speak. It's natural that it happens. And this is highlighted by all the technologies and so on. So we should see an efficiency level of the retail dropping through time. We expect, obviously, the revenues are different than what is the cap with the interest rate and this is where we're going. And Gabriel has been the leader of this process with all the executive committee with all the areas dedicated so we can take that efficiency level to the place that it should be.
因此,這個模式的檢討正在進行中。這是自然會發生的,而且在各種科技的推動下更是如此。所以我們應該會看到零售端的效率水準隨時間下降。我們當然也預期,收入會不同於利率上限所限制的情況,而這就是我們要前進的方向。Gabriel 一直在領導這個流程,與整個執行委員會以及所有相關領域一起投入,讓我們把效率水準帶到它應該在的位置。
Of course, the rest is a consequence of this strategy. What is the model, if it's full digital, if there is a remote service, how do we service the high income, middle income. Every segment is going to have its position. In the last quarter, I brought you a slide that shows the segment that we are referenced, inefficiency segments where we need to gain operational scalability.
當然,其餘都是這個策略的結果。模式是什麼、是否全數位、是否有遠端服務、如何服務高收入與中等收入客群。每個分群都會有其定位。上一季我給你們看了一張投影片,顯示我們所對標的分群、效率不足的分群,以及我們需要提升營運可擴展性的地方。
We are very excited with the advances, and this is where we're going to go with quality, with a digital structure that is ever more powerful, high NPS, the eNPS of the workers and higher thresholds. So absorbing the turnover with good quality. Quality and the communication is fundamental so we can go through this bridge. And I'm very optimistic that we're going to get there very strongly on the other side.
我們對這些進展感到非常振奮,而這就是我們要走的方向:以品質為核心、以更強大的數位架構、高 NPS、員工 eNPS 與更高的門檻/標準來推進。因此能以良好品質吸收人員流動。品質與溝通是我們走過這座橋的關鍵。我非常樂觀,我們會在另一端以非常強的姿態到達。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, next question, Yuri Fernandes, JPMorgan.
好,下一個問題,JPMorgan 的 Yuri Fernandes。
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Yuri Fernandes - Analyst
Congratulations on the execution of the strategy. Let's go back to the point of ROE. The question is ROE against growth. We know that there is a growth. There is a choice to keep an ROE that is high. There is a reward. We've seen that in your lines. The bank has kept that ROE. You talked about the good capital allocation rationality. So I wanted to ask you about the balance because when we see the most negative point on the quarter, well, the most negative point is the FIIs client.
恭喜你們策略執行到位。我們回到 ROE 的議題。問題是 ROE 對成長。我們知道有成長,也有選擇去維持高 ROE。這是有回報的,我們在你們的各項線上/項目中看到了。銀行一直維持那個 ROE。你也談到良好的資本配置理性。所以我想問你們關於這個平衡,因為當我們看到本季最負面的點——嗯,最負面的點是 FII 客戶。
And the FIIs, they seem transitory. Checking account, it should be normalized or even the fee of issuing the credit cards, very pressured because of rewards. If you can comment, Milton, on how we should think about the bank in terms of ROE against the growth? Because to me, 2026 is a year of transition, different pressures of fees with an ROE that is very high, but at one point, the Itau with the cost of service can accelerate the growth.
而 FIIs,看起來是暫時性的。活期帳戶應該會回歸正常,甚至信用卡發卡費也因為回饋而承受很大壓力。Milton,如果可以的話,請你評論一下:我們應該如何從 ROE 相對於成長的角度來看這家銀行?因為在我看來,2026 年是一個過渡年,手續費面臨不同壓力、ROE 又非常高,但在某個時點,Itaú 透過服務成本的調整可以加速成長。
So I don't know if the ROE is going to decrease eventually and the bank is going to gain market share or gain market share in other products outside of the opportunities that we're discussing. So generic question, structural, I wanted to hear from you to balance this high profitability against growth.
所以我不確定 ROE 最終是否會下降,而銀行會因此取得市占,或是在我們正在討論的機會之外、在其他產品上取得市占。這是一個比較泛、偏結構性的問題:我想聽你怎麼看,如何在高獲利與成長之間取得平衡。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Yuri. Great to see you. Thank you for the question. So our logic here is to grow. That is the dynamic of the bank. My objective is not having a smaller bank with more profitability. The combination of both on the long term is what we seek every day. Think that BRL1.5 trillion in credit card portfolio, BRL1.3 trillion in Brazil, we have testing and the capacity of testing and understanding how we're going to pilot our growth. And where are the opportunities in play.
謝謝你,Yuri。很高興見到你,謝謝你的問題。我們這裡的邏輯是成長,這就是銀行的動態。我的目標不是做一家規模更小但更高獲利的銀行;我們每天追求的是長期同時兼顧兩者的組合。想想看,信用卡投組 BRL1.5 兆、巴西 BRL1.3 兆,我們正在測試,而且具備測試與理解如何試點推動成長的能力,以及目前有哪些機會在發生。
Even in the clusters that we close of risk, we still have a percentage open to test and be careful that we are not making a type two mistake, which is not approving a good credit because we think that from the standpoint of risk, it wouldn't be worth it. So we have testing happening as we speak in all the places of the bank.
即使在我們因風險而關閉的客群群組中,我們仍然保留一定比例開放來做測試,並小心避免犯第二類錯誤,也就是因為從風險角度判斷不值得,而沒有核准其實是好的授信。所以我們此刻在銀行各個地方都在進行測試。
Number two, profitability certainly is very relevant for us. And we haven't seen opportunities of growth that are not being used, are not growing to increase the ROE. The cost of capital is there. You can see it. And we operate -- restriction of profitability is not that.
第二,獲利能力對我們當然非常重要。而我們沒有看到有任何成長機會沒有被運用、沒有被推進以提升 ROE。資本成本就在那裡,你也看得到。我們的營運——獲利能力並不是限制因素。
What restricts the growth is risk. So that's the main factor specifically for credit. To grow a portfolio is very quick when you open the credit. Then you spend two, three years explaining the delays, paying the provisions and having to decelerate in a public that you want to decelerate and consuming the capital in an adequate way. That discipline is key, is a strong balance with discipline, balance that wants to grow, but wants to grow within the opportunities that we understand that are sustainable in long cycles. We do not see any restriction to growth.
限制成長的是風險。這是主要因素,特別是在授信方面。當你放寬授信時,投組成長非常快;但接下來你要花兩、三年去解釋逾期、提列備抵,並且不得不在你想要降速的客群上降速,同時以適當方式消耗資本。這種紀律是關鍵:一個強健的資產負債表加上紀律,既想成長,但要在我們理解且能在長週期中永續的機會內成長。我們看不到任何成長的限制。
So when we talk about the line of services of business and insurance, I commented, this is a line that what we've seen in activity, specifically the capital markets. There are challenges. Consumption will have its challenges. The TPV of credit cards in the quarter has a seasonability because the fourth quarter is very strong. It pushes for the exchange.
所以當我們談到服務、企業與保險這條線時,我提過,我們在活動面看到的情況,特別是資本市場,確實有挑戰。消費也會有它的挑戰。本季信用卡 TPV 有季節性,因為第四季非常強,會推動(外匯)換匯。
The first quarter, there's an adjustment of seasonality. The indebted families are paying the Black Friday and Christmas. And you have a natural trend of less usage in the first quarter than the fourth quarter. This is important in the credit card.
第一季會有季節性調整。負債較高的家庭在支付黑色星期五和聖誕節的帳單。而第一季的使用量自然會低於第四季。這在信用卡上很重要。
On the other hand, the rewards, we still have the yearly payments. We are reducing them. Today, the rewards program costs more than what we had the results, and this is by design. This is a decision that we made many years. We're still going to go this. We're going to reduce clearly what we call the risky revenues that generate an attrition with the client and reduce the lifetime value.
另一方面,回饋方面我們仍有年度支付。我們正在降低它們。今天,回饋計畫的成本高於我們所得到的結果,而這是刻意設計的。這是我們多年前做出的決策。我們仍會繼續這樣做。我們會明確降低我們所謂的「高風險收入」,因為那會造成客戶流失並降低終身價值。
Because if I defend the tariffs, in the short term, this transition is soft, but in the long term, we're going to lose a client. So it doesn't make sense. We don't want to lose a client. We want to increase the time of relationship and being the main one for the client. We opened the checking account with the individuals to show the direction.
因為如果我在短期內捍衛費率,這個轉換會比較平順,但長期我們會失去客戶。這沒有意義。我們不想失去客戶。我們想延長關係時間,並成為客戶的主要往來銀行。我們對個人客戶開放了活期帳戶,以展現方向。
I'm not discussing with the regulator the [resignification] of 339 tariffs. This is not the discussion debate. It's to find new ways of taking packages for our clients that generate value, that are perceived as value and not cost, doesn't generate attrition. So the packages that are being developed for all clients have this logic of taking. We buy in the wholesale, we deliver solutions, streaming, restaurants, a series of other benefits. And the advantage programs that we've been working for a long time, you end up rewarding the relationship with the client and the engagement on the long term.
我不是在和監管機構討論 339 項費率的「重新定義」。這不是討論的焦點。重點是為客戶找到新的方案組合,能創造價值、被感知為價值而非成本,且不會造成流失。因此,為所有客戶開發的方案都遵循這個邏輯:我們以批發方式採購,交付解決方案——串流、餐廳,以及一系列其他福利。而我們長期投入的優勢計畫,最終是在長期回饋客戶關係與互動。
So we're very comfortable with this growth and the rewards program that we have. In all the segments, they have a good penetration with relevant results, very well managed. So we can have an adequate balance. But those revenues of yearly tariffs and tariff on the checking account, individuals paying for the PIX in the companies. This is our tariffs that we are doing the transition for a long time. It's a negative force, but it brings an x amount of benefits on the long term, mainly the reciprocity and the relationship with the clients. So that's the service line.
所以我們對這樣的成長與我們的回饋計畫非常有信心。在所有客群中,它們都有良好的滲透率與具體成果,管理得也很好。因此我們可以取得適當的平衡。但那些年度費率收入、活期帳戶費用、企業端支付 PIX 的費用——這些是我們長期在做轉型的費率。它是一股負面力量,但長期帶來一定程度的好處,主要是互惠與與客戶的關係。因此這就是服務這條線。
Insurance, on the other hand, the penetration has grown over the last year. This year is not different. So whether it's life insurance or others integrated offerings for our clients, increasing the penetration, we've seen a lot of opportunities in other products that are not explored. So insurance is growth above 10%, 15% easy.
另一方面,保險的滲透率在過去一年有所成長,今年也不例外。不論是壽險或其他與客戶整合式的產品供給,滲透率都在提升;我們也看到許多尚未被開發的其他產品機會。所以保險要做到 10%、15% 以上的成長很容易。
Looking at the future, we still want to grow the result and the bottom line. And services depend on activity. The capital market is 34% weaker. Of course, they're going to affect this line. On the other hand, the advantage of being a full bank is that you have another complete portfolio that helps you manage these types of situation. You're not doing well in one line, but you have a better one with the margin with the client, but you have a cost of credit that is very adequate or you can get levers of cost where you can work with better efficiency. So this is where we're working with, but there are pressures that we need to deal with it.
展望未來,我們仍希望提升成果與淨利。而服務取決於活動量。資本市場活動弱了 34%,當然會影響這條線。另一方面,作為一家全方位銀行的優勢在於,你有另一個完整的產品組合來幫助你管理這類情況:某一條線表現不佳,但你可能在另一條線、在客戶利差上更好;同時你的信貸成本非常適當,或你可以透過成本槓桿提升效率。我們就是在這些方面著力,但確實有一些壓力需要面對。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, nice question. Eduardo Rosman from BTG Pactual.
好,問題很好。BTG Pactual 的 Eduardo Rosman。
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
I wanted to ask about artificial intelligence. Very difficult from us from the outside to see how tangible who's going to be the winners or losers. But in thesis, those that are doing a good digital transformation such as you should have a big advantage in the implementation of AI.
我想問關於人工智慧。從外部來看,很難判斷誰會成為贏家或輸家有多具體、可量化。但在理論上,那些像你們一樣做得很好的數位轉型者,在導入 AI 上應該會有很大的優勢。
So I wanted to ask Milton. Milton, what would you recommend for us, the analysts, what should we ask or observe for the executives and the numbers of the banks throughout time to have a good reading of who is moving ahead?
所以我想問 Milton:你會建議我們這些分析師,隨著時間推移,應該向銀行高層詢問或觀察哪些事項與數據,才能更好地判讀誰正在領先?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Great to see you, Rosman. Thank you for the questions. I read your report. Thank you for the points that were done. First, we didn't agree on this, but I'm going to use this question for marketing and the official launch.
很高興見到你,Rosman。謝謝你的問題。我讀了你的報告,謝謝你提出的觀點。首先,我們在這點上沒有共識,但我會用這個問題來做行銷以及正式發布。
In the next weeks, in the next days, we're going to launch the first [acquiring] machine, the orange one powered by AI with an AI integrated system in the machine, a conversation with the tenant. The first one powered by AI with NPS above 90, adoption above 90, so this can be a game changer in this world of payments. The inception is integrated AI, and it evolves for the conversational.
在接下來幾週、接下來幾天,我們將推出第一台由 AI 驅動的(收單)機器——橘色那台,機器內建整合式 AI 系統,可以與商戶對話。這是第一台由 AI 驅動、NPS 超過 90、採用率超過 90 的設備,因此它可能會改變支付世界的遊戲規則。起點是整合式 AI,並進一步演進到對話式。
For a series of other points, and I tested it myself. I have a great appreciation of Rede because I was the CEO of [Rede] in the past. I talked to the machine, I tested it. I saw it. It's impressive how you simplify the experience of the salesmen, the tenant, the restaurant, and it facilitates the transaction. It's quicker. So I'm very excited about the launch. Briefly, you're going to have news, we're going to do the press release. So thank you for the question. Let me tell you what I think. What you need to get at the end of the day is get the results.
還有一系列其他亮點,而且我自己也測試過。我對 Rede 非常有感情,因為我過去曾擔任過(Rede)的 CEO。我跟機器對話、我測試了、我看到了。它在簡化銷售人員、商戶、餐廳的體驗方面令人印象深刻,也讓交易更順暢、更快速。所以我對這次發布非常興奮。很快你就會有消息,我們會發布新聞稿。謝謝你的問題。讓我告訴你我的看法:你最終需要看到的是結果。
On our side, instead of being the race for the biggest number of models under production, this is not translated into concrete relevant structural results. I think that the organization of the bank has been given in terms of these are the levels of the organization, started with the executive committee. So the bank needed the clear definition of what are the players, the enablers, what are the levels of clients? How do we do this across? It doesn't matter that one area advances quickly if the other corporate areas do not work with the same speed.
就我們這邊而言,與其說是在比拼量產中的模型數量誰最大,這並沒有轉化為具體且相關的結構性成果。我認為,銀行的組織架構已經被界定出來,也就是組織的層級,從執行委員會開始。因此,銀行需要清楚定義誰是參與者、誰是賦能者、客戶的層級是什麼?我們要如何在各單位之間推動?如果某一個領域進展很快,但其他公司端的領域沒有以同樣速度運作,那其實沒有意義。
So we proposed ourselves to do Itau, the foundation of the intelligence of Itau in the bank. We assembled the internal guardrails so we can guarantee that we can take the model in the vision of the client without having hallucinations at the end of these models of AI. All the management to guarantee the adoption and knowledge of the bank was done, so more and more, the employees have access to information. And we define clearly what are the big projects and what are the most structuring and relevant for the bank.
因此我們提出要打造 Itau,也就是在銀行內建立 Itau 的智慧基礎。我們建立了內部的護欄,以確保我們能以客戶視角運用模型,而不會在這些 AI 模型的最終輸出出現幻覺。我們也完成了所有管理工作,以確保銀行內部的採用與知識傳遞,因此員工能夠愈來愈多地取得資訊。同時,我們也清楚界定哪些是大型專案、哪些對銀行最具結構性與最重要。
It's impressive how the applications have brought results. From the standpoint of the customer experience, they asked me about NPS. I'm going to help with the answer. AI has a fundamental role in the digital strategy of the companies. It was born out of a limited scope, so we can do testing and evolve the solution.
這些應用帶來的成果令人印象深刻。從客戶體驗的角度,他們問我 NPS 的問題。我會協助回答。AI 在企業的數位策略中扮演根本性的角色。它是從有限的範圍開始,讓我們可以測試並逐步演進解決方案。
It's a relevant pillar of the company where we're going to leverage in a digital way a great part of the basis powered by AI, specialists in investment we are launching where we are going to have access. I know that you don't have a checking account in Itau. I imagine that you have at BTG. I recommend that you open an account in Itau and you test it and then you're going to have your DNA fully analyzed and you have a conversational analysis with the bank. This is a game changer for the bank.
這是公司的一個重要支柱,我們將以數位方式槓桿化很大一部分由 AI 驅動的基礎;我們正在推出投資專家服務,讓我們能夠取得相關能力。我知道你在 Itau 沒有活期帳戶。我猜你在 BTG 有。我建議你在 Itau 開戶並試用,然後你的 DNA 會被完整分析,你也會與銀行進行對話式分析。這對銀行而言是顛覆性的改變。
You're not transactional and you have a consultative hyper-personalized bank. In all the areas going through finance, IR, analysis, legal, HR, all the areas powered by AI and several processes. So what you need to discuss with the banks and understand first is the result. This has to be translated into bigger efficiency, more capacity for the generation of top line, more productivity, naturally of the teams because you have the -- you bring solutions to the teams, and it's with not or. So it's a combination of the human with being able to provide more [consultiveness] with more quality, and it's going to make a difference.
你不再只是做交易,而是擁有一個具諮詢性、超個人化的銀行。涵蓋所有領域,包括財務、IR(投資人關係)、分析、法務、人資,所有領域都由 AI 驅動並支援多項流程。因此,你需要先與銀行討論並理解的是成果。這必須轉化為更高的效率、更強的創收(top line)能力、更高的生產力,團隊也會自然提升,因為你把解決方案帶給團隊,而且是「與」而不是「或」。也就是人與技術的結合,能以更高品質提供更多的[諮詢性],並將帶來差異化。
And in the credit models, we've done a partnership that is relevant, and we have an investment with a company that has created models for LDM, which are the large data models, not the large language models. And here, we work in relevant fronts, modeling of credit fraud is one of them. CRM is the other. So all of that will bring more productivity, more accuracy, more competitiveness, more efficiency. So that will be translated with numbers at the end of the day.
在信用模型方面,我們做了一項重要的合作,並投資了一家建立 LDM 模型的公司;LDM 指的是大型資料模型(large data models),不是大型語言模型(large language models)。在這裡,我們在多個重要面向上合作,其中之一是信用詐欺的建模,另一個是 CRM。因此,這些都將帶來更高的生產力、更高的準確性、更強的競爭力與更高的效率。最終都會反映在數字上。
If I tell you everything that we are doing and the results are moving along, these are structuring or there are improvements that are less relevant. So in the medium to long term, the changes can be transformative. And we need to be able to communicate this to the market so you can make it tangible in what we are doing. And I mentioned a series of initiatives, the PIX with lots of game changers that are relevant being done at the bank. And I am certain that we will be able to show this with time. But Rede is a clear case of what we can do with artificial intelligence, changing the experience of payment with our clients.
如果我把我們正在做的所有事情以及進展中的成果都告訴你,其中有些是結構性的,有些則是相對不那麼重要的改善。因此在中長期,這些改變可能具有轉型性。我們需要能把這些對市場溝通清楚,讓你能把我們正在做的事情具體化。我提到了一系列的倡議,例如 PIX,銀行正在做許多重要的顛覆性改變。我確信隨著時間推移,我們將能展示出來。但 Rede 是一個清楚的案例,說明我們如何運用人工智慧,改變與客戶之間的支付體驗。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
We have Tito Labarta from Goldman Sachs.
我們有來自高盛的 Tito Labarta。
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Following up a little bit on [Judy's] question on growth, but looking at your guidance here, and I know you had some seasonality in the quarter and the payment of the dividend impacting particularly financial margin with clients and fees. But your guided 5% to 9% growth for the year. You're at the low end or a little bit below that on the fees, insurance, I know it was a bit more resilient.
延續一下[Jud y]關於成長的問題,但從你們的指引來看,我知道本季有一些季節性因素,以及股利支付對金融利差(特別是客戶端利差)與手續費的影響。不過你們對全年給的是 5% 到 9% 的成長指引。你們目前在手續費這塊落在區間低端或略低於低端;保險我知道相對更具韌性一些。
But how should we think about the rest of the year and your ability to deliver, say, maybe a bit above the low end of the guidance, particularly with some of the increased concerns on credit quality, and I appreciate the chart you gave. Certainly, you're in a much better position than the system. But just given those concerns, how do you think about your ability to perhaps accelerate growth through the year and maybe have these revenue trends be a little bit above the lower end of that guidance.
那我們應該如何看待今年剩餘時間,以及你們達成目標的能力?例如,是否有機會做到略高於指引低端,特別是在市場對信用品質疑慮升高的情況下——我也很感謝你們提供的圖表,你們的確處於比整體系統更好的位置。但在這些疑慮之下,你們如何看待在今年內加速成長的可能性,並讓營收趨勢略高於該指引的低端?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Tito, good to see you. Thank you for joining us in the call. It's always a pleasure to have you here. So let me give you a little bit more details on the guidance. I think it's still the first quarter, but of course, we do have our forward look to make estimations in how should we end up the year.
Tito,很高興見到你。謝謝你加入這通電話會議。我們一直很高興你在這裡。那我就針對指引提供更多細節。我想現在仍是第一季,但當然,我們也會以前瞻視角來估算全年最終會如何收官。
So we're still comfortable with the overall guidance. I think, in portfolio growth, we are comfortable even though we still have challenges ahead. So let's see how it works out in the coming quarters. Financial margin with clients, we think we've been delivering. It's possible for us to get to where we want due to the level of portfolio growth, spreads on the liability side as well, investments, we've been performing very well.
因此,我們對整體指引仍然感到安心。我認為在投組成長方面,即使前方仍有挑戰,我們也仍然有信心。接下來幾季我們再看看進展。客戶端金融利差方面,我們認為我們一直有在交付成果。由於投組成長的水準、負債端利差,以及投資表現都非常好,我們有可能達到我們想要的位置。
Recent figures coming from the market, we've been gaining market share. So all in all, I think in financial margins, despite the event that we had only in the first quarter, and we had some calendar effects as well, I don't think we should have any issue.
從市場最新數據來看,我們正在提升市占率。總體而言,我認為在金融利差方面,儘管我們在第一季有那個事件,且也有一些日曆效應,我不認為會有任何問題。
Cost of credit, I always knock on wood three times here just to be sure that we will be able to deliver. But with the information we have today, we are comfortable with the guidance in cost of credit. The only one that I see more on the lower end, it's on the service and results with insurance. This one I mentioned now a few times. I think this is more challenged for the year, okay?
信用成本方面,我一向會在這裡敲木頭三下,以確保我們能夠交付。但以我們今天掌握的資訊來看,我們對信用成本的指引是有信心的。我唯一看到比較偏向區間低端的是服務與保險的結果。這點我已經提過好幾次了。我認為這在今年會更具挑戰,好嗎?
On the insurance side, very positive. On the fees in general, the markets and the activity has not been as what we expected, especially in the DCM side, which is very relevant for us due to the level of market share we have. So we're still dominant in the market. We still have a relevant market share, but it's not related to our performance, but more related to the market performance. So this is an overall impact.
保險端非常正面。至於整體手續費,市場與活動量並未如我們預期,尤其是在 DCM(債務資本市場)端,這對我們非常重要,因為我們在那裡有很高的市占率。因此我們仍在市場上居於主導地位,仍有顯著市占,但這與我們自身表現無關,而更多與市場表現有關,所以這是整體性的影響。
And also, it's important to highlight, we have the performance fees on the asset management in a year with much more volatility as we have been seeing. This is more challenged as a challenge for the financial market in the treasury side, but we've been able to deliver. Although despite of the volatility we have in the asset management, the fee is relevant. Second quarter and fourth quarter, it will depend in our market performance. It will depend on the volatility. It will depend on geopolitics. It will depend on interest rates. So all the markets where we take position. So I think those are the lines where we have to keep an eye on.
另外也要強調,我們在資產管理上有績效費(performance fees),而今年如你所見波動更大。這對財務市場、特別是資金(treasury)端而言更具挑戰,但我們仍能交付。儘管資產管理面臨波動,這筆費用仍然重要。第二季與第四季將取決於我們的市場表現、取決於波動、取決於地緣政治、取決於利率,也取決於我們建立部位的各個市場。因此我認為這些是我們需要持續關注的線條。
TPV has to do with consumption, with the capability of the families to consume. And this will be relevant for the issuer. This will be relevant for the acquiring company. So it will depend on activity at the end of the day. So if you ask me, if I'm still confident with the guidance, the answer is yes.
TPV 與消費有關,與家庭的消費能力有關。這對發卡端(issuer)很重要,對收單公司(acquiring company)也很重要。因此最終將取決於活動量。所以如果你問我,我是否仍對指引有信心,答案是肯定的。
If we believe that we can achieve the level of profitability that we expected at the very beginning, yes. If we can achieve the bottom line that we are looking. And of course, the geography may change in lines, but we're still working hard to deliver the profit as we expected.
如果你問我們是否相信能達到一開始所預期的獲利水準,是的;是否能達到我們所追求的淨利(bottom line),是的。當然,地理區域的表現可能在各條線上有所變化,但我們仍在努力交付我們所預期的利潤。
But the lines in terms of geography, I think the profit, the results coming from services and insurance, they will be much more to the lower end than the other ones. So this is the one that I think it's in risk. I'm not changing the guidance. If I have new information in the coming quarters, and we believe it's the time to make an assessment on adjustment in the guidance, as we always do, we'll be transparent and upfront if there's any change needed. But we feel comfortable with what we have here.
但就地理分布而言,我認為來自服務與保險的利潤、結果,會比其他項目更偏向低端。因此這是我認為存在風險的一項。我不會改變指引。如果在接下來幾個季度我獲得新的資訊,且我們相信到了需要評估是否調整指引的時點——如同我們一貫所做——若有任何需要變更之處,我們會透明且坦率地對外說明。但就目前而言,我們對這裡的內容感到安心。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
So back to Portuguese. Henrique Navarro, Santander.
那麼回到葡萄牙語。桑坦德(Santander)的 Henrique Navarro。
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
My question is about delinquency. The market has been very worried about the cycles, and actually two questions. The first one, correct me if I'm wrong, from what I understand, you are seeing the peak of delinquency coming maybe in the second and third quarter, we're going to see the peak of delinquency at Itau, and this number shouldn't be a number that is frightening. So maybe deterioration of another 20, 30 basis points in delinquency. So that's the first question. If really we are close to the peak and the peak might come in the second and third quarter, and it's not a number that will fight to you.
我的問題是關於逾期(delinquency)。市場一直非常擔心景氣循環,實際上我有兩個問題。第一個,如果我理解有誤請糾正我:依我所理解,你們看到逾期的高峰可能會出現在第二與第三季,我們將在 Itaú 看到逾期的高峰,而這個數字不應該是令人害怕的數字。也就是說,逾期可能再惡化 20、30 個基點左右。這是第一個問題:如果我們真的接近高峰,而高峰可能在第二、第三季出現,而且這不是一個會讓你們感到棘手的數字。
Second question, thank you for the information you just gave on slide 8 was very useful for us. It's clear that Itau has an advantage in comparison to the sector. So my question is, where does this come from? The explanation can be the products, but even if we get the segmentation in products, it's still in the math of Itau that you're doing a good service in the management of risk.
第二個問題,謝謝你剛才在第 8 頁投影片提供的資訊,對我們非常有用。很清楚 Itaú 相較於同業有優勢。所以我的問題是,這個優勢從何而來?解釋可能在於產品,但即使把產品做分群,仍然可以看出在 Itaú 的數學(表現)上,你們在風險管理方面做得很好。
So my question is, where does these numbers come from, the digital and the question of Rosman? Is it AI, data lake, the way that you're managing that data lake? Is it really digital or AI? With an advancement in the AI becoming a commodity, do you foresee a risk of a competitor getting to you in this excellency? Or do you have more to gain with the evolution of AI because there's still a lot of things to be done in terms of improvement and image of that risk adjustment?
所以我的問題是,這些數字從哪裡來——數位化以及 Rosman 的問題?是 AI、資料湖(data lake)、你們管理資料湖的方式嗎?到底真的是數位化或 AI 嗎?在 AI 逐漸商品化的情況下,你是否預見競爭對手在這種卓越性上追上你們的風險?或者,隨著 AI 的演進,你們反而有更多可獲得的空間,因為在改善以及風險調整的形象(呈現)方面仍有很多事情可以做?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Henrique. Great to see you. Well, about delinquency, I'm going to try with all the caveats that things can change. We are in a very dynamic market. I would say that my expectation for the delinquency rates for the next quarters are stability, are very stable.
謝謝你,Henrique。很高興見到你。關於逾期,我會在所有「情況可能改變」的但書下嘗試回答。我們處在一個非常動態的市場。我會說,我對未來幾季逾期率的預期是穩定、非常穩定。
I'm not even anticipating the peak. I am saying that we are structurally in thresholds of delay over 90 that I am confident and 10 basis points up or down stability, so delay over 90 with the private persons with the information that I have today in regards to stability. Of course, if changes come, if the market is more challenging, but we're going to (inaudible), but we are going to have stability with the individuals. It's [5 plus 10] is very stable, given the thresholds, very much lower than what the bank worked below in the past.
我甚至不會去預期高峰。我是說,就 90 天以上逾期(delay over 90)的結構性門檻而言,我很有信心會在上下 10 個基點的範圍內保持穩定;也就是以我今天掌握的資訊來看,個人客戶的 90 天以上逾期會維持穩定。當然,如果情勢改變、如果市場更具挑戰性,我們會(聽不清),但就個人客戶而言,我們將維持穩定。以這些門檻來看,[5 plus 10] 非常穩定,也遠低於過去銀行曾經運作的水準。
And the generation of top line has changed. So we cannot imagine that you're going to work with the same level of cost of credit that you operated in the past where you could extract more value. There were caps. There were other products. So there were those.
而且營收(top line)的生成方式已經改變。因此我們不能想像你們會以過去相同的信用成本水準來運作;過去你們可以萃取更多價值。當時有上限(caps),也有其他產品。所以情況不同。
So here, you have more dependency on the credit than you had in the past. So you need to deal with delays with lower thresholds to have the profitability level that is adequate, and we see the line adjusted to risk, combination of both. We grow the net financial margin of [PDD]. We cannot deliver the top line and deliver with the cost of credit and then the return adjusted to the risk, that is not adequate. This is a discipline.
因此在這裡,你們對信貸的依賴程度比過去更高。所以你需要在更低的逾期門檻下處理逾期,才能達到適當的獲利水準;而我們看到的是風險調整後的線條,是兩者的組合。我們成長了扣除 [PDD](呆帳準備/貸款損失準備)後的淨利息收入(net financial margin)。我們不可能在交付營收的同時,還用那樣的信用成本去交付,然後得到一個不適當的風險調整後報酬。這是一種紀律。
Where I still think that there's going to be an increase in a mechanical normalization, which is key, SMEs. The effect on the whole is not material for the bank. But in the line of SME, there can be another 10 or 20 bps. So I wouldn't even say that it's material, but to be precise, the best expectation is that it should run around 210 in the next two quarters.
我仍然認為會出現一個機械式的正常化上升,而關鍵在於中小企業(SMEs)。對整體而言,對銀行並不具重大影響。但在中小企業這條線上,可能還會再增加 10 或 20 個基點。所以我甚至不會說它很重大,但若要精確,最佳預期是未來兩季大約會在 210 左右運行。
Remembering that in the same mechanic and criteria, we ran at 240 not so long ago in the same logic. And when we published a delay over 90, we're not even bringing the vision below. SMEs, where you still have titles specifically in the middle, here is a delay that you're going to have in this portfolio. So why SMEs is going to work? Because a great deal of the government programs are not with the deadlines and the client has a payment, they cannot -- they may choose not to pay.
請記得,在相同的機制與標準下,不久之前我們在同樣邏輯下曾跑到 240。而當我們公布 90 天以上逾期時,我們甚至沒有把更低區間的視角納入。中小企業方面,你仍然有一些特定在中段的票據/應收(titles),在這個投組裡你會看到這樣的逾期。所以為什麼中小企業會這樣?因為相當一部分政府方案並沒有配合到期日,而客戶有付款能力時,他們不能——他們可能選擇不付款。
But since there is a delay for the follow-up guarantees, which is 90 days for one, 180 for the other, there is a time delay. There is a delay, the provision not necessarily happens because you have a good guarantee and then you regularize the delay with an honor delay. So there is an accounting time mismatch that can produce this effect. And you might have a provision, but it results in a short cycle.
但由於後續擔保(follow-up guarantees)有一個延遲期——一個是 90 天、另一個是 180 天——因此存在時間落差。確實有延遲;提列備抵不一定會發生,因為你有良好的擔保,之後你會把逾期透過履約/代償(honor)機制予以規整。因此會有會計上的時間錯配,可能產生這種效果。你可能會提列準備,但結果是一個短週期。
With the guarantees with the government, you can get this client with the adequate rating and it avoids you making provisions. So it's very important because you have guarantees of treasury, FGO, whatever the guarantee is. So I would say that looking up ahead, there is a stability in the delay indicators.
有政府擔保時,你可以用適當的評等承作這個客戶,並避免你必須提列準備。這非常重要,因為你有國庫擔保、FGO(擔保基金)或不論是哪一種擔保。所以我會說,往前看,逾期指標是穩定的。
Now going back to the second question, how. The how doesn't have -- we don't have a silver bullet. There is a series of elements. First, the strategy that is well defined, a portfolio management that is well structured, discussed. Very important to give credit is not giving credit.
現在回到第二個問題:如何做到。這個「如何」並沒有——我們沒有一顆銀彈。它是一系列要素。第一,策略定義清楚;投組管理架構完善、並且充分討論。非常重要的一點是:給予授信並不等於「給授信」。
The best thing that you can do for the client is not giving the credit because they don't have the conditions, they don't have the financial education necessary. There is an expansion in the credit in the market with the fintechs that was very relevant. A client had 1.4 credit cards, now they have six, because there is no annual fees. They get online and they can get credit cards as many as they get. When they have problems, they stop transactioning and they avoid to stop paying the bank where they have the salary.
你能為客戶做的最好的事,是在他們不具備條件、沒有必要的金融教育時,不給他們授信。市場上金融科技公司推動的信貸擴張非常顯著。一位客戶原本有 1.4 張信用卡,現在有六張,因為沒有年費。他們上網就能申辦很多張信用卡,想辦多少就辦多少。當他們出現問題時,他們會停止刷卡交易,並且避免停止支付他們領薪的那家銀行。
So being the main bank makes a difference. We have a relevance that is strong in the segments of middle to high income. We have clients that are target. So the definition of a target client not necessarily goes through income. It's not just income that discriminates.
因此成為主要往來銀行(main bank)會帶來差異。我們在中高收入客群的區隔中具有很強的相關性(relevance)。我們有目標客戶(target clients)。所以目標客戶的定義不一定取決於收入;不只是收入在做區分。
We also operate 10 million target clients and Itau Digital, which is the basis of the pyramid, the (inaudible) segment, so we can see the profile of the client, what are the commissions of the client. We have target clients in all segments. We have on target in all segments. Income is not the sole factor for risk discrimination. A lot of modeling, a lot of testing, a lot of humility because credit makes you humble.
我們也服務 1,000 萬名目標客戶,以及 Itaú Digital——也就是金字塔底部的(聽不清)客群——因此我們能看見客戶輪廓、客戶的手續費/佣金(commissions)來源。我們在所有客群都有目標客戶。我們在所有客群都有 on target。收入不是風險區分的唯一因素。大量建模、大量測試,以及大量謙卑,因為信貸會讓你變得謙卑。
Every day, you have feedback, creation of value capital allocation fundamental, so you can see if the decisions that you're making at the margin are creating value. It's not just [products], it's the vision to see the corrections that are necessary, a lot of artificial intelligence that is applied. But still, it's a lot of hype. There is concrete benefits, but it's not so structuring as a whole. And we think that it's going to be more in the future.
每天你都會得到回饋;價值創造、資本配置是基本功,因此你能看出你在邊際上所做的決策是否在創造價值。不只是[產品],而是用一個視角去看需要的修正;也有大量應用的人工智慧。但仍然有很多炒作(hype)。確實有具體效益,但整體而言還沒有那麼結構性。我們認為未來會更是如此。
So there's relevant molecules for production with high changes with the performance of the models changing, but still under testing and some under production. The expectation is that there's going to be a relevant advance, but there is no silver bullet.
因此在生產端(production)有一些重要的「分子」(molecules),模型表現的變動很大,但仍在測試中,有些已上線運行。預期會有顯著進展,但沒有銀彈。
Franchising is important. Being the main one is very important for delinquency as well. And building a Brazilian portfolio, having the discipline to allocate the right clients for the right segment and having the discipline of not doing so. This is the importance. So that relationship of risk return, well balanced on the long term brings value, removes the volatility for the balance sheet and increase the value creation and brings consistency on the long term. So this is what we believe, and we continue.
特許經營很重要。作為主要參與者對於逾期情況也非常重要。以及建立一個巴西投資組合,具備將合適的客戶配置到合適的分群的紀律,也具備不去做不合適配置的紀律。這就是其重要性。如此一來,長期風險報酬關係保持良好平衡,能帶來價值、降低資產負債表的波動、提升價值創造,並在長期帶來一致性。因此這就是我們所相信的,我們也會持續下去。
We made mistakes in the past. We've learned with those. We commit new mistakes, we learn again. There's a lot of learning. And for that to work, all the modernization that we've done on the platform and data architecture was key.
我們過去犯過錯。我們從中學習。我們也會犯新的錯,然後再學一次。有很多學習。而要讓這一切奏效,我們在平台與資料架構上所做的所有現代化改造是關鍵。
So you could have a data mesh architecture centralized at a modernization of platform, that was a game changer because today, the data is democratic in the bank. It's tempestuous. Everybody can use it quickly and you can react with the modernization of online platforms and doing the adjustments for management.
因此你可以擁有一個資料網格(data mesh)架構,並在平台現代化的過程中集中化,這改變了遊戲規則,因為今天,資料在銀行內是民主化的。它是即時的。每個人都能快速使用,並且你可以透過線上平台的現代化以及為管理所做的調整來快速反應。
And the human capital to conclude, I have to recognize having the right people, competent teams motivated, engaged with quality of management attitude and with a long-term view that is with the adequate incentives. So it goes through incentives. If you make a mistake with the incentives, you see that in the industry, this is where you lose the result in the long term. So having aligned incentives with the shareholders is fundamental.
最後談到人力資本,我必須承認,擁有合適的人才、能力出眾且有動力的團隊,投入並具備高品質的管理態度與長期視角,且配合適當的激勵,至關重要。所以這會回到激勵機制。如果激勵設計出錯,你會在產業中看到,這正是長期失去成果的地方。因此,讓激勵與股東一致是根本。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Now for the final question of today, we have Carlos Gomez-Lopez from HSBC.
那麼,今天最後一個問題,我們有來自匯豐(HSBC)的 Carlos Gomez-Lopez。
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopez - Analyst
Two minor questions. The first one is about your tax rate, which is a little bit lower than the guidance that you have given us for the year. Typically, it is higher in the first quarter. So I wonder if there was any particular reason, or if you think that you may actually outperform in terms of your effective tax rate?
兩個小問題。第一個是關於你們的稅率,這比你們給我們的全年指引略低。通常第一季會比較高。所以我想知道是否有任何特別原因,或者你們是否認為在有效稅率方面實際上可能會優於預期?
And the second one is about the agricultural portfolio. You mentioned you have about a 20% market share. Have any of the support programs from the government, are they adequate to your portfolio? Is that something that you are using? And do you have a view about how that market is starting to evolve?
第二個是關於農業投資組合。你們提到大約有 20% 的市占率。政府的任何支持計畫是否適用於你們的投資組合?你們有在使用嗎?以及你們對該市場開始如何演變有什麼看法?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
So Carlos, good to see you. Thank you for your question. So coming from the second one, no. Those programs coming from the government, they are not specific for the agriculture. Of course, if there is any similarity with the clients that are eligible for the program, you might have a coincidence, but they are not designed to the agriculture. So this is the answer.
Carlos,很高興見到你。謝謝你的提問。先從第二個問題開始,沒有。那些政府推出的計畫並不是專門針對農業的。當然,如果與符合計畫資格的客戶有任何相似之處,可能會出現重疊,但它們並非為農業而設計。所以答案是這樣。
But I think this is something that should be in government: awareness that if there is something that could be developed for the agriculture market and business, this would be relevant for the market as a whole, but there is no discussions on that.
但我認為這應該是政府需要關注的:如果能為農業市場與業務發展出一些措施,這對整個市場都會有意義,但目前沒有相關討論。
On the effective tax, I will ask Gabriel to go there. But we are still comfortable with the guidance, and you will see there is a specific effect in the first quarter, but you will see the effective tax rate converging throughout the year.
至於有效稅率,我會請 Gabriel 說明。不過我們仍然對指引感到放心,你會看到第一季有一個特定影響因素,但你也會看到有效稅率在全年逐步收斂。
So Gabriel, if you want to give more details?
Gabriel,你要不要補充更多細節?
Gabriel de Moura - Chief Financial Officer
Gabriel de Moura - Chief Financial Officer
As Milton mentioned, we are very comfortable with the guidance that we have. If you think about the bank in terms of tax rate, effective tax rate, I think there are two main components to that. As you know, the first one and the major impact that we have is interest on capital. And if you remember, the interest on capital that we have on this trimester is larger than we had last year on the first quarter and also larger than we had on the fourth quarter of '25. And the second major impact that we have is the distribution of the results within the bank.
如 Milton 所提,我們對目前的指引非常有信心。若從銀行的稅率、有效稅率來看,我認為主要有兩個構成因素。如你所知,第一個、也是影響最大的,是資本利息(interest on capital)。如果你還記得,我們本季的資本利息高於去年第一季,也高於 25 年第四季。第二個主要影響因素,是銀行內部結果(利潤)在各單位之間的分配。
So the geography among the different companies that we have, financial, nonfinancials. There are seasonalities around those two specific factors. If you take a look at what happened in the first quarter, exactly they lead to a lower effective tax rate, but they tend to normalize during the year and go according to the guidance that we have so far.
也就是我們不同公司之間的地理分布:金融、非金融等。這兩個特定因素存在季節性。若你看第一季發生的情況,正是它們導致有效稅率較低,但它們在全年會趨於正常化,並會按照我們目前的指引走。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Gustavo Rodrigues - Head of Investor Relations, Member of the Executive Board
Well, with that, we will close the earnings call. Thank you, Milton. Thank you, Gabriel. Thank you, everyone, that took part. We're going to close our Q&A session and our video conference of '26.
好的,那麼我們將結束本次法說會。謝謝 Milton。謝謝 Gabriel。也謝謝所有參與的人。我們將結束問答環節以及 26 年的視訊會議。
Now I'll give the floor to you, Milton, for the closing arguments.
現在我把時間交給你,Milton,請你做結語。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Gustavo. Thank you, Gabriel. It's always an honor to have you here in this meeting, in this results meeting. Well, it's a long term for debate. It's always enriching debate, enriching questions, always important to work with transparency and proximity to the investors. Challenges are there. Everybody has their feet on the ground. As I say, good results. They do not generate a future accommodation. This is what we discussed.
謝謝你,Gustavo。謝謝你,Gabriel。能在這次會議、這次業績會議上與你們同在,始終是一種榮幸。這是一個長期的討論議題。討論總是很有收穫,問題也很有啟發;以透明度並貼近投資人來工作始終很重要。挑戰就在那裡。每個人都腳踏實地。正如我所說,好的結果不會讓我們在未來自滿。這就是我們所討論的。
It's an infinite game. We're never satisfied. We're always raising the bar every quarter. And we try to do the best for the client. And resources, agenda, the result will see this evolution on the long term. And we are happy with the results. Evidently, these are the challenges. I think that the macro, there is an election year. And today, the news piece, they change a lot. And the important thing is discipline. Looking outside, we have good competent people, competition that is competent in our work is to evolve every day.
這是一場無限遊戲。我們永遠不滿足。我們每一季都在提高標準。我們努力為客戶做到最好。資源、議程、成果,將在長期看到這種演進。我們對結果感到滿意。當然,挑戰也存在。我認為宏觀環境方面,今年是選舉年。而且今天的新聞變化很大。重要的是紀律。向外看,我們有優秀且有能力的人才,競爭也很有能力;我們的工作就是每天進步。
Thank you for your time. Thank you for your feedback. Next week, we have the conference in New York. We're going to be there with the biggest audience of a conference with the participation of CEOs in the history. Another year that we're going to focus all the events of our conference, and we're going to have the group of sports.
謝謝你的時間。謝謝你的回饋。下週我們在紐約有一場會議。我們會到場,這將是史上 CEO 參與最多、觀眾規模最大的會議。又是一年,我們將把重點放在我們會議的所有活動上,並且我們會有體育團隊。
They're going to be New York in one year, keynote speakers that are spectacular and then the conference itself. I'm going to be myself there. I should see a great deal of the local investors and analysts who are going to be there to respond to your questions. See you next time.
他們將在一年內到紐約,會有非常精彩的主題演講者,然後是會議本身。我本人也會在那裡。我應該會見到許多當地投資人與分析師,並在現場回應你們的問題。下次見。
Editor
Editor
Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.
本逐字稿中的英文陳述由現場電話會議中的口譯員翻譯。該口譯員由贊助本活動的公司提供。