使用警語:中文譯文來源為 AI 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Good morning everyone, my name is Gustavo and it is a pleasure to have you joining us for our second quarter 2026 earnings video conference. As always, Milton will walk you through our performance and afterwards we will have our traditional Q&A session during which analysts and investors will be able to interact directly with us.
各位早安,我是Gustavo,很高興各位參加我們2026年第二季財報視訊會議。一如往常,Milton將帶各位回顧我們的表現,之後我們將進行傳統的問答環節,屆時分析師與投資人可直接與我們互動。
Before handing the floor over to Milton, I would like to share a few instructions to help you make the most of today's event. For those accessing the webcast through our website, there are three audio options available, the entire content in Portuguese, the entire content in English, or the original audio.
在把時間交給Milton之前,我想先分享幾點指引,協助各位充分參與今天的活動。透過我們網站收看網路直播的與會者,有三種音訊選項:全程葡萄牙語、全程英語,或原始音訊。
(Operator Instructions) Today's presentation is available for download on both our hot site and as always, on our investor relations website.
(接線員指示)今天的簡報可於我們的活動專頁(hot site)下載,並且一如往常,也可在我們的投資人關係網站下載。
With that, I will now hand you over to Milton, and we will reconvene later for the Q&A session. Milton, over to you.
那麼,我現在把時間交給Milton,我們稍後將再會合進行問答環節。Milton,交給你。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Good morning. Welcome to another earnings release as we discuss our second quarter 2026 results. You will see an executive presentation focused on the key drivers of our results, with the objective of leaving ample time for our traditional Q&A session. We delivered a strong quarter with consistent results, high profitability and excellent credit quality indicators very much in line with the consistency we have been delivering over recent quarters. Let's move directly to the numbers.
早安。歡迎各位參加本次財報發布會,我們將討論2026年第二季的業績結果。各位將看到一份聚焦於業績關鍵驅動因素的管理層簡報,目標是為傳統的問答環節保留充足時間。本季我們交出強勁表現,成果穩健一致、獲利能力高,且信用品質指標極佳,與近幾季我們持續展現的穩定性高度一致。我們直接看數字。
This quarter, we delivered recurring net income of BRL12.4 billion. representing growth of 7.8% compared to the second quarter of last year and of 1% compared to the previous quarter. This was, therefore, another very solid result. How does this translate into profitability? On a consolidated basis, ROE reached 24.3% and while in Brazil, it reached 25.7%.
本季我們的經常性淨利為1,240億巴西雷亞爾(BRL12.4 billion),較去年第二季成長7.8%,較前一季成長1%。因此,這又是一個非常穩健的成果。這如何反映在獲利能力上?在合併基礎上,ROE達到24.3%;在巴西則達到25.7%。
As always, we also present profitability adjusted to a CET1 capital ratio of 11.5%, which is close to where we believe the market operates and is also our minimum capital appetite threshold on this basis, consolidated ROE would have reached 25.1%, while ROE in Brazil would have reached 26.7%.
一如往常,我們也提供以CET1資本比率11.5%調整後的獲利能力,這接近我們認為市場運作的水準,也是在此基礎上我們最低的資本偏好門檻;在此基礎上,合併ROE將達到25.1%,而巴西ROE將達到26.7%。
This is perhaps the most comparable metric across earnings releases, and it demonstrates our ability to generate strong returns not only in Brazil, but also on a consolidated basis. Turning to the loan portfolio. We posted healthy growth, reaching BRL1.522 trillion, up by 2.7% quarter-over-quarter and by nearly 10% year-over-year. This reflects our ability to grow with quality, supported by sound portfolio dynamics and disciplined capital allocation.
這或許是各次財報發布中最具可比性的指標,並展現我們不僅在巴西、也在合併層面具備創造強勁報酬的能力。接著看放款組合。我們實現健康成長,達到1.522兆巴西雷亞爾,季增2.7%,年增接近10%。這反映我們在穩健的組合動能與嚴謹的資本配置支持下,能以高品質方式成長。
Moving on to NII with clients. We also delivered a very solid result of 32.6 billion an increase of 3.3% compared to the first quarter of 2026 and a 5% compared to the second quarter of 2025. It is important to highlight this acceleration, results are very solid, and I will provide more detail shortly.
接著看客戶淨利息收入(NII)。我們同樣交出非常穩健的326億(32.6 billion)成果,較2026年第一季成長3.3%,較2025年第二季成長5%。需要強調的是這一加速趨勢:結果非常穩健,我稍後會提供更多細節。
Moving to noninterest expenses. Growth remained well under control at 3.1% year-over-year. It is worth remembering that we have been investing continuously for many years, always with a long-term perspective, these figures demonstrate not only our ability to continue investing in the business with quality but also our ability to pursue efficiency wherever it needs to be found on a daily basis. This reflects strong cost discipline across the organization.
再看非利息費用。年增率維持在3.1%,仍然控制得很好。值得記得的是,我們多年來持續投資,始終以長期視角為出發點;這些數字不僅顯示我們能以高品質持續投資業務,也顯示我們能在日常營運中持續追求需要提升的效率。這反映全組織強而有力的成本紀律。
All of this has translated into a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.3%, once again demonstrating a very solid and high-quality capital base with an increase of 30 basis points compared to March. It is worth remembering that we did an early dividend distribution at the end of last year, which meant that we entered 2026 with a highly optimized capital position.
上述表現使普通股第一類資本比率(CET1)達到12.3%,再次展現非常穩健且高品質的資本基礎,較3月提高30個基點。值得一提的是,我們在去年底進行了提前股利分配,因此在進入2026年時,資本部位已高度最佳化。
We also had the regulatory phase-in effects, which still had an impact during the first quarter, and yet we continue to generate capital with strong quality. I will return to this topic in more detail later in the presentation.
我們也受到監管分階段導入(phase-in)效應影響,該效應在第一季仍有影響,但即便如此,我們仍持續以高品質方式創造資本。我會在簡報後段更詳細回到這個主題。
Turning back to the loan portfolio. I will walk through the figures from the bottom up as that may be easier to follow. In Brazil, the portfolio grew by 9.6% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter, which is very healthy growth.
回到放款組合。我將由下往上帶各位看數字,這樣可能更容易理解。在巴西,放款組合年增9.6%、季增2.6%,屬於非常健康的成長。
Large companies posted growth of 10% year-over-year and 4.4% quarter-over-quarter, once again reflecting strong discipline in capital allocation and expected returns. These are very long-term balance sheet transactions, which makes disciplined capital allocation, particularly important.
大型企業年增10%、季增4.4%,再次反映我們在資本配置與預期報酬上的高度紀律。這些是非常長期的資產負債表交易,因此嚴謹的資本配置尤為重要。
Next, let me provide more details, starting with micro, small and medium-sized companies. We posted healthy growth of 1.5% in the quarter and 11.6% year-over-year. More important than growth itself, however, is the quality and risk profile of this portfolio. The portfolio of government-backed programs grew by 7.2% in the quarter while originations increased by 47.3% over the same period.
接下來我提供更多細節,先從微型、小型與中型企業開始。本季成長1.5%,年增11.6%,表現健康。然而,比成長本身更重要的是該組合的品質與風險輪廓。政府擔保方案的組合本季成長7.2%,同期間承作量(originations)增加47.3%。
Once again, this reflects our discipline in delivering the best products under the best conditions while maintaining strong risk management and capital allocation standards. Payroll lending has continued to be a very important growth driver for us, particularly private payroll loans under the new product.
再次地,這反映我們在維持強健風險管理與資本配置標準的同時,以最佳條件提供最佳產品的紀律。薪資扣繳貸款持續是我們非常重要的成長動能,尤其是新產品下的民營薪資貸款。
The overall payroll loan portfolio grew by 3.5% in the quarter and 11.7% year-over-year. When we take a closer look at private payroll loans, the portfolio expanded by 14.3% in the quarter and [90.1%]year-over-year. From the outset, we were able to capitalize on this opportunity very effectively delivering value to our clients while generating strong and consistent growth with delinquency remaining fully under control. This also affects the dynamics of our personal lending portfolio.
整體薪資貸款組合本季成長3.5%,年增11.7%。若更聚焦於民營薪資貸款,該組合本季擴張14.3%,年增[90.1%]。自一開始,我們就能非常有效地把握這個機會,在為客戶創造價值的同時,帶來強勁且一致的成長,且逾期情況仍完全受控。這也影響我們個人放款組合的動態。
Since for clients who are eligible for private payroll loans, particularly formerly employed workers, we have increasingly prioritized this product over traditional unsecured personal lending due both to its pricing advantages and its priority in the repayment structure.
因為對於符合民營薪資貸款資格的客戶,特別是前受雇員工,我們愈來愈優先推動此產品,而非傳統無擔保個人貸款,原因在於其定價優勢以及在還款結構中的優先順位。
Finally, turning to mortgage lending. It is important to remember that our funding structure is differentiated relative to the market, enabling us to remain highly competitive in this segment while serving our clients effectively and allocating resources efficiently. The mortgage portfolio grew by 3.9% in the quarter, and by 13.3% year-over-year, reaching BRL152 billion.
最後,談到房貸。需要記得的是,我們的資金來源結構相較市場具有差異化,使我們能在此領域保持高度競爭力,同時有效服務客戶並高效率配置資源。房貸組合本季成長3.9%,年增13.3%,達到1,520億巴西雷亞爾。
In fact, the mortgage portfolio has now surpassed our credit card portfolio, which has historically been one of our most important portfolios at approximately BRL150 billion Mortgage lending is a long-term product that fosters strong client loyalty and reciprocity, which is why this strategy is so important for us.
事實上,房貸組合如今已超越我們的信用卡組合;信用卡歷來一直是我們最重要的組合之一,規模約1,500億巴西雷亞爾。房貸是長期產品,能培養強烈的客戶黏著度與互惠關係,因此這項策略對我們非常重要。
Today, the largest private sector bank in this segment with BRL36 billion in originations over the last 12 months and a 55% market share among private banks. Once again, this demonstrates how our funding structure, our clients' investment profile and our funding capacity allow us to sustain a mortgage portfolio at these levels.
目前,我們是此細分市場中最大的民營銀行,過去12個月承作量達360億巴西雷亞爾,且在民營銀行中的市占率為55%。再次地,這顯示我們的資金來源結構、客戶的投資輪廓以及我們的資金籌措能力,使我們能在這些水準上維持房貸組合。
Now let me turn to NII with clients and highlight two points. First, total NII increased by BRL1.1 billion, representing growth of 3.3% in the quarter, including working capital and other effects. We posted growth in the working capital and other categories in addition to the impact of investment rates and we're able to monetize our capital very effectively, reaching 3.9 billion in working capital during the quarter.
現在我來談談與客戶相關的淨利息收入(NII),並強調兩點。首先,總NII增加了11億巴西雷亞爾,季增3.3%,其中包含營運資金及其他因素的影響。除了投資利率的影響外,我們在營運資金及其他類別也實現成長,並且能非常有效地將資本變現,本季營運資金達到39億。
When we look at core NII, we see growth of BRL800 million or 2.9% in the quarter, broadly distributed across all components. Average volumes contributed positively. Product mix was broadly neutral for margins. Liability margins and asset spreads were slightly positive. And we also benefited from a calendar effect as this quarter had one additional calendar day, which positively affected liabilities.
當我們觀察核心NII時,可見本季增加8億巴西雷亞爾,或季增2.9%,且成長廣泛分布於各個組成項目。平均餘額(平均量)帶來正向貢獻。產品組合對利差大致中性。負債端利差與資產利差略為正向。此外,我們也受惠於日曆效應,因本季多了一個日曆日,對負債端帶來正面影響。
Latin America and other also contributed positively. So as I mentioned, this was a broadly distributed result, demonstrating our ability to generate core NII alongside an effective strategy for monetizing working capital and supporting the bank's capital generation. When we translate NII into margin percentages, particularly risk-adjusted NIM, which is the way we manage the balance sheet, we have positive news to share.
拉丁美洲及其他地區也有正向貢獻。因此如我所提,這是一個廣泛分布的成果,展現我們在有效將營運資金變現、支持銀行資本生成的同時,也能創造核心NII的能力。當我們將NII換算為利差百分比,特別是風險調整後淨利差(risk-adjusted NIM)——這也是我們管理資產負債表的方式——我們有正面的消息可以分享。
As I always say, generating a very high margin only to give it back through credit costs is not a sensible capital allocation strategy. What we have shown consistently is our ability to manage margins with discipline and consistency.
我一向強調,只追求非常高的利差、卻又透過信用成本把利差吐回去,並不是合理的資本配置策略。我們一貫展現的是以紀律與一致性管理利差的能力。
Risk-adjusted NIM reached 6.2%, representing a slight increase of 10 basis points in the quarter on a consolidated basis. The same dynamic was observed in Brazil, where NIM increased from 6.6% to 6.7%, reflecting our disciplined portfolio management and delivering very solid results. Therefore, this is very positive news on the margin front.
合併基礎下,風險調整後NIM達到6.2%,本季小幅上升10個基點。巴西亦呈現相同動態,NIM由6.6%上升至6.7%,反映我們有紀律的投資組合管理並交出非常穩健的成果。因此,就利差面而言,這是非常正面的消息。
Turning to NII with the market. Although results may appear stable compared to previous periods, I believe that we are all aware of all the challenges we have been facing in financial markets and the level of volatility we have experienced, both in local and global markets.
接著談與市場相關的NII。雖然與前期相比結果看似穩定,但我相信大家都清楚,我們在金融市場面臨的各項挑戰,以及在本地與全球市場中所經歷的波動程度。
Even so, we delivered another solid quarter, supported by consistent risk management. This discipline and the quality of the results we deliver are extremely important. As a result, NII with the market reached BRL900 million.
即便如此,在一致的風險管理支持下,我們仍交出另一個穩健的季度。這份紀律以及我們所交付成果的品質極其重要。因此,與市場相關的NII達到9億巴西雷亞爾。
We also continue to incur costs associated with capital index hedge ratio. But as part of our strategy to protect our capital position and enhance earnings predictability, we continue to believe that this remains the appropriate approach for the bank's balance sheet, even considering this cost, we delivered a very solid performance in NII with the market.
我們也持續承擔與資本指數避險比率(hedge ratio)相關的成本。但作為保護資本部位並提升獲利可預測性策略的一部分,我們仍認為即使考量這項成本,這仍是適合本行資產負債表的作法;而且在此之下,我們在與市場相關的NII方面仍交出非常穩健的表現。
Turning to commissions, fees and results from insurance. I will once again comment on the figures from the bottom up. You will see that results from insurance, pension plans and premium bonds increased by 8.7% year-over-year and 12.8% compared to the first half of 2025.
接著談手續費、費用與保險相關成果。我將再次由下而上說明各項數字。你會看到,保險、退休金計畫與儲蓄彩券(premium bonds)的成果年增8.7%,且相較於2025年上半年成長12.8%。
Our core insurance operation continues to grow very consistently on both a quarterly and year-over-year basis. We have delivered many consecutive quarters of growth with results at a substantially different level compared to five years ago, reflecting very strong progress.
我們的核心保險業務在季度與年增基礎上都持續非常穩健地成長。我們已連續多個季度實現成長,成果水準與五年前相比顯著不同,反映出非常強勁的進展。
Moving on to advisory services and brokerage. Revenues increased by 32.5% year-over-year and by 25.3% in the first half compared to the same period last year. This line is largely composed of fixed income transactions, and our approach has been one of strict capital allocation and risk discipline. As a result, many of these transactions are ultimately retained on our balance sheet and what we evaluate is the expected return profile, ensuring that returns remain consistent and aligned with our cost of capital while also carefully assessing the type of risk we are retaining over the long term, considering both fixed income market pricing dynamics and credit risk. Therefore, we remain very comfortable with the quality of the assets that have been retained on our balance sheet.
接著談顧問服務與經紀業務。營收年增32.5%,且上半年相較去年同期成長25.3%。此項目主要由固定收益交易構成,而我們的做法是嚴格的資本配置與風險紀律。因此,許多交易最終會保留在我們的資產負債表上;我們評估的是其預期報酬輪廓,確保報酬維持一致並與資本成本相符,同時也審慎評估我們長期承擔的風險類型,並同時考量固定收益市場定價動態與信用風險。因此,我們對保留在資產負債表上的資產品質仍然非常有信心。
Moving on to Asset Management. Revenues grew by 7.3% year-over-year. More importantly, despite not being an exceptional quarter for performance fees, we still achieved 11.0% growth in the first half compared to the same period last year. There are some lines that we deliberately continue to disclose particularly current accounts for individuals, which declined both in the quarter and year-over-year to demonstrate that this is precisely the direction we expect.
接著談資產管理。營收年增7.3%。更重要的是,儘管本季績效費並非特別突出,我們上半年相較去年同期仍達成11.0%的成長。有些項目我們刻意持續揭露,特別是個人活期存款帳戶(current accounts),其在本季與年增基礎上皆下滑,以顯示這正是我們預期的方向。
We have been redefining our current account packages in an effort to serve clients more effectively while simultaneously increasing customer lifetime value and reducing friction in our customer relationships. This is why we continue to disclose this line separately, providing visibility into the significant transformation taking place in our revenue mix, with revenues becoming increasingly more sustainable, higher quality and supportive of greater customer lifetime value.
我們一直在重新定義活期帳戶方案,以更有效地服務客戶,同時提升客戶終身價值並降低客戶關係中的摩擦。這也是我們持續將此項目單獨揭露的原因,讓外界看見我們營收組合正在發生的重大轉型:營收正變得愈加可持續、品質更高,並支持更高的客戶終身價值。
Revenues from card issuance are closely linked to the risk profile of the portfolio we have been originating. Over the last years, we carried out a very significant derisking process and today, we operate a portfolio with delinquency levels that are substantially below market averages, roughly half of the system levels while delivering quality growth and double-digit expansion in the target segments where we have chosen to grow.
發卡收入與我們所承作投資組合的風險輪廓密切相關。過去幾年,我們進行了非常顯著的去風險化(derisking)流程;如今,我們所營運的投資組合逾期水準顯著低於市場平均,約為整體系統水準的一半,同時在我們選擇成長的目標客群中,實現高品質成長與兩位數擴張。
Therefore, we are very satisfied with the quality of the results we have achieved. That said, as I mentioned previously, we have observed some moderation in this line throughout the year as a function of economic activity levels.
因此,我們對已取得成果的品質感到非常滿意。不過,如我先前提到,受經濟活動水準影響,我們觀察到此項目在今年呈現一定程度的放緩。
I will discuss our guidance later on, but this is the line where we are making an adjustment. As I have mentioned in previous quarters, we already saw some risk that performance could trend closer to the lower end of the range. Therefore, we believe it was prudent to revise our full year growth expectations this quarter. I will provide more details on this adjustment shortly.
我稍後會討論我們的指引(guidance),但這是我們正在進行調整的項目。正如我在前幾季所提,我們已看到一些風險,顯示表現可能更接近區間下緣。因此,我們認為在本季修正全年成長預期是審慎之舉。我將在稍後提供更多關於此調整的細節。
Turning to credit quality. We delivered another quarter of strong consistency. Looking at Brazil, consolidated NPL 15 to 90 days remained stable and fully in line with the previous quarter. In Brazil, the individual's portfolio also remained stable at approximately 3.0%. In SMEs, we saw a slight increase, fully consistent with what I have been discussing over recent quarters.
接著談信用品質。我們再次交出高度一致性的強勁季度表現。就巴西而言,合併口徑下15至90天不良貸款(NPL)維持穩定,且完全符合上一季水準。在巴西,個人投資組合也維持穩定,約為3.0%。在中小企業(SMEs)方面,我們看到小幅上升,這與我在近幾季所討論的情況完全一致。
We continue to expect normalization of this indicator with the gradual stabilization of the grace periods associated with government-backed programs, which, as I previously showed are highly relevant within our portfolio. We're now approaching the end of these grace periods. We should still experience an additional quarter of increases, particularly in NPL over 90 days, which I will discuss in greater detail shortly.
我們仍預期,隨著與政府擔保計畫相關的寬限期逐步穩定,該指標將回歸常態;如我先前所示,這些計畫在我們的投資組合中占比相當重要。我們目前正接近這些寬限期的尾聲。我們仍可能再經歷一個季度的上升,特別是在90天以上NPL方面;我稍後會更詳細說明。
Looking at long-term delinquency. The overall indicator remained stable as did Brazil's indicator this quarter. These are very positive developments for cost of credit, particularly in an environment with household indebtedness increasing household leverage rising and interest rates remaining restrictive.
再看長期逾期情況。整體指標本季維持穩定,巴西的指標亦同樣穩定。這些發展對信用成本非常正面,尤其是在家庭負債增加、家庭槓桿上升且利率仍具限制性的環境下。
Even under these conditions, we have been able to navigate the cycle with a high degree of discipline and consistency. Looking specifically at Brazil, the delinquency in the individuals portfolio increased slightly by 10 basis points but we have absolutely no concerns regarding this portfolio.
即使在這些條件下,我們仍能以高度的紀律與一致性度過此一循環。就巴西而言,個人投資組合的逾期率小幅上升10個基點,但我們對該投資組合完全沒有疑慮。
I also wanted to provide greater transparency regarding the impact of the (inaudible) program. We had 371,000 clients impacted and BRL1.1 billion in renegotiated loans but the effect on our indicators was immaterial. To put this into perspective, the impact on cost of credit was BRL60 million during the quarter, while the impact on the delinquency indicator was only 2 basis points.
我也想就(聽不清)計畫的影響提供更高的透明度。共有371,000名客戶受到影響,且有11億巴西雷亞爾的貸款完成重新協商,但對我們的指標影響並不重大。為了讓大家更有概念,本季對信貸成本的影響為6,000萬巴西雷亞爾,而對逾期指標的影響僅為2個基點。
Why am I highlighting this? Because we achieved a 12% market share in this program. When the program was launched, our expectation was to operate with approximately 10% market share. We performed somewhat better than expected, although the target customer profile consisting of individuals earning up to five minimum wages is not necessarily the primary focus of our portfolios.
我為什麼要強調這一點?因為我們在此計畫中取得了12%的市占率。當計畫推出時,我們原先預期的營運市占率約為10%。我們的表現略優於預期,儘管目標客群(每月收入不超過五倍最低工資的個人)未必是我們投資組合的主要重點。
The key message, however, is that our risk management framework continues to perform with a very high level of quality regardless of any specific program. In this particular case, the effect on our indicators was immaterial.
然而,關鍵訊息是:無論任何特定計畫為何,我們的風險管理架構仍持續以非常高的品質運作。在此個案中,對我們指標的影響並不重大。
This is the indicator I mentioned earlier, with SMEs increasing from 1.9% to 2.0%, we are still operating at levels that are significantly below those observed in the past when this indicator ranged between 2.3% and 2.5%, and that is only natural.
這就是我先前提到的指標:中小企業(SMEs)從1.9%上升至2.0%;我們仍在顯著低於過去的水準下運作,當時該指標介於2.3%至2.5%之間,這也是很自然的。
However, there is a mechanical effect related to the expiration of grace periods as government-backed programs mature. Previously, we benefited from these grace periods as the denominator grew significantly without any impact on the numerator. As these grace periods begin to expire, we naturally see this increase in the indicator.
不過,隨著政府擔保計畫逐步到期,寬限期屆滿會帶來一個機械性的影響。先前我們受惠於這些寬限期,因為分母大幅成長而分子不受影響。當這些寬限期開始到期時,我們自然會看到該指標上升。
Our best estimate is that this indicator should increase by another 10 basis points next quarter, reaching approximately 2.1% which remains well below levels observed not so long ago, such as in September 2024. It is important to remember that the market is dynamic, but our current expectation is for this indicator to stabilize at around 2.1% over the coming quarters.
我們的最佳估計是,該指標在下季還會再上升10個基點,達到約2.1%,仍遠低於不久前(例如2024年9月)所見的水準。需要記住市場是動態的,但我們目前預期該指標在未來幾季將穩定在約2.1%。
Once again, this reinforces the fact that we are looking at a mechanical effect and not a source of concern despite all the challenges we have been observing in the market. Therefore, delinquency indicators continue to provide very positive news.
再次強調,這證實我們看到的是機械性影響,而非令人擔憂的來源,儘管市場上我們觀察到各種挑戰。因此,逾期指標仍持續帶來非常正面的訊息。
Regarding the portfolio by stages, I do not have any major highlights here. Stage 2 and Stage 3 portfolios remain broadly in line with expectations. However, I would like to draw your attention to the Stage 2 coverage ratio, particularly the reduction observed this quarter in the company's portfolio. It is important to note that we do not manage the business by stage classification. Our management approach is based on expected loss. Therefore, if you compare the sum of short-term delinquency NPL 15 to 90 days plus NPL over 90 days with the share of the portfolio classified in each stage, you will notice that stage allocations are substantially higher.
關於按階段(stages)劃分的投資組合,我這裡沒有特別重點。第二階段與第三階段的投資組合整體仍符合預期。不過,我想請各位注意第二階段覆蓋率(coverage ratio),尤其是本季公司投資組合中觀察到的下降。需要強調的是,我們並不是以階段分類來管理業務。我們的管理方法是以預期損失(expected loss)為基礎。因此,若你將短期逾期不良貸款(NPL)15至90天加上逾期超過90天的NPL之合計,與各階段分類的投資組合占比相比,你會發現各階段的配置比例明顯更高。
What happens is that, particularly in wholesale, when there are migrations from Stage 2 to Stage 3 or from Stage 1 to Stage 2, these effects become visible. This quarter, we experienced migrations of clients from Stage 2 to Stage 3. Typically, clients leave Stage 2 with a relatively high level of coverage when they are ready to migrate. And this affects the overall coverage ratio.
實際上,特別是在批發(wholesale)業務中,當客戶從第二階段移轉至第三階段,或從第一階段移轉至第二階段時,這些影響就會顯現。本季我們出現客戶從第二階段移轉至第三階段的情況。通常,客戶在準備移轉時,會以相對較高的覆蓋水準離開第二階段。而這會影響整體覆蓋率。
Once again, this is essentially a mechanical effect that is fully accounted for in our projections and in our cost of credit, which I will discuss shortly. There is no specific issue behind this movement. In the MD&A, you will find the breakdown by retail and wholesale segments. But this remains a purely mechanical effect with no cause for concern. It simply reflects the natural migration of clients between stages, all of whom already had adequate provisioning levels.
再次說明,這基本上是機械性影響,且已完全反映在我們的預測與信貸成本中,我稍後會談到。這個變動背後沒有任何特定問題。在管理層討論與分析(MD&A)中,你會看到按零售與批發分部的拆分。但這仍是純粹的機械性影響,無需擔憂。它只是反映客戶在各階段之間的自然移轉,而這些客戶原本就已具備足夠的提存水準。
Turning to cost of credit. You can see remarkable stability in this series from the first quarter of 2025 through today with cost of credit running at 2.7% of the portfolio throughout the period. This is an impressive level of stability. Naturally, nominal figures increase as the portfolio grows, which is why it is important to compare nominal growth in credit costs against the growth of the portfolio itself.
接著談信貸成本。你可以看到,從2025年第一季到現在,這個序列呈現顯著的穩定性,信貸成本在整段期間皆維持在投資組合的2.7%。這是令人印象深刻的穩定水準。當然,隨著投資組合成長,名目金額會增加,因此將信貸成本的名目成長與投資組合本身的成長進行比較非常重要。
That is exactly what we have observed. Cost of credit recorded only a slight increase, reaching BRL10.1 billion. As I mentioned earlier, the impact of the (inaudible) program was immaterial, both overall and during the quarter.
而這正是我們所觀察到的情況。信貸成本僅小幅增加,達到101億巴西雷亞爾。如我先前所述,(聽不清)計畫的影響並不重大,無論是整體或就本季而言皆是如此。
Moving on to the renegotiated portfolio. It continues to operate at very comfortable and appropriate levels, although there are some specific effects worth mentioning. I had previously indicated that at some point, the nominal figures would naturally tend to increase. This is expected given the significant derisking process we have carried out over recent years.
接下來談重新協商的投資組合。它仍維持在非常舒適且適當的水準,儘管有一些值得一提的特定影響。我先前曾指出,在某個時間點,名目金額自然會呈現上升趨勢。考量到我們近年來所進行的大幅去風險(derisking)流程,這是可預期的。
However, we also have specific one-off effects such as the inclusion of the disenroll portfolio. Out-of-court restructurings and other restructuring plans that have recently been approved are also included figures, among other items. Therefore, this increase is driven by specific and isolated factors. What matters most is the relative indicator, which remains very well behaved and once again demonstrates the strength of our portfolios.
不過,我們也有一些特定的一次性影響,例如納入退保(disenroll)投資組合。近期獲核准的庭外重整(out-of-court restructurings)及其他重整方案等,也被納入相關數據,此外還有其他項目。因此,這次增加是由特定且孤立的因素所驅動。最重要的是相對指標,該指標仍表現良好,再次展現我們投資組合的韌性。
Turning to noninterest expenses. The news is very positive. Commercial and administrative expenses declined by 0.5% year-over-year and increased 3.2% in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025 remaining below both inflation and collective bargaining adjustments.
接著談非利息費用。消息非常正面。商業與行政費用年減0.5%,且2026年上半年相較2025年上半年增加3.2%,仍低於通膨與集體協商調薪幅度。
Looking at total Brazil expenses, growth reached 3.1% year-over-year and 4.1% in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year. This once again demonstrates our cost discipline across the organization and the meaningful progress we have made, particularly in those segments where we needed to improve efficiency in order to become increasingly competitive. This is a direct result of our management strategy, and we can certainly discuss it further during the Q&A session.
從巴西總費用來看,年增達3.1%,而2026年上半年相較去年同期增加4.1%。這再次證明我們在全組織範圍內的成本紀律,以及我們所取得的實質進展,特別是在那些需要提升效率以變得更具競爭力的分部。這是我們管理策略的直接成果,我們也可以在問答環節進一步討論。
Overall, I'm very pleased with the progress we have achieved on this agenda. As a result of this strategy, the efficiency ratio reached 35.5% in Brazil in the second quarter and 37.4% on a consolidated basis. Looking at the first half comparison, we continue to make progress, improving from 35.7% in the first half of 2025 to 35.2% in the first half of 2026 in Brazil and from 37.5% to 37.3% on a consolidated basis.
整體而言,我對我們在這項議程上取得的進展非常滿意。在此策略之下,效率比率在第二季於巴西達到35.5%,在合併基礎上達到37.4%。若看上半年比較,我們持續改善:巴西由2025年上半年的35.7%改善至2026年上半年的35.2%,合併基礎則由37.5%改善至37.3%。
Therefore, I'm very satisfied with the efficiency ratio of the institution as a whole. It is also important to note that all expenses are included in this metric. There are no additional expenses outside the figures presented here, which further reinforces the strength and quality of the results we are delivering.
因此,我對整體機構的效率比率非常滿意。同時也必須指出,所有費用都已納入此指標。不存在任何未包含在此處所呈現數字之外的額外費用,這也進一步強化我們所交付成果的韌性與品質。
All of this ultimately reflects our capital generation capacity. We generated 0.8% through earnings retention during the period. We had a 0.3% reduction related to dividends and interest on capital provisions and a further 0.1% reduction from risk-weighted assets. As a result, we ended the quarter with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.3%, a very strong and solid capital position with further growth expected, which should allow us to have our traditional discussion regarding additional dividend distributions at the beginning of the following year. This clearly demonstrates the strength of our capital generation capacity.
所有這些最終都反映了我們的資本生成能力。期間內,我們透過盈餘留存貢獻了0.8%。與股利及資本利息提撥相關的因素使其減少0.3%,風險加權資產亦進一步使其減少0.1%。因此,本季末我們的普通股權益第一類資本比率(CET1)為12.3%,資本部位非常強勁且穩健,並預期仍有進一步成長,這應可讓我們在明年年初就額外股利分配進行一如既往的討論。這清楚展現了我們資本生成能力的強度。
We also report additional Tier 1 capital at 1.5%. It is worth noting that the actual figure is 1.7%, but regulatory limits restrict the amount that can be recognized, which is why we present 1.5% here. This results in a very solid Tier 1 capital ratio and reinforces the strength of our capital generation base.
我們也揭露其他第一類資本為1.5%。值得注意的是,實際數字為1.7%,但監管上限限制了可被認列的金額,因此我們在此呈現1.5%。這使得第一類資本比率非常穩健,並強化了我們資本生成基礎的實力。
Finally, regarding my comments on guidance, I have two observations to make. We maintained the previously disclosed guidance ranges, including loan portfolio growth, NII with clients, NII with the market, cost of credit and noninterest expenses.
最後,關於我對財測指引的評論,我有兩點觀察。我們維持先前揭露的指引區間,包括放款組合成長、客戶端淨利息收入(NII)、市場端淨利息收入(NII)、信用成本以及非利息費用。
The only change we made was to commissions and fees and to results from insurance, which, as I mentioned earlier, is closely linked to the level of economic activity. We revised the expected growth range to between 2% and 5%, whereas at the beginning of the year, we expected growth between 5% and 9%. We are making this adjustment to better reflect the trends we have been observing.
我們唯一調整的是手續費與費用,以及保險業務的結果;如我先前提到,這與經濟活動水準密切相關。我們將預期成長區間修正為2%至5%,而年初我們預期為5%至9%。我們做出此調整,是為了更貼近我們所觀察到的趨勢。
If we see positive surprises in economic activity or attractive market windows, we will naturally seek to capitalize on them in the best possible way. However, we believe that making this adjustment is the most prudent course of action at this point.
若經濟活動出現正向驚喜或市場出現具吸引力的窗口期,我們自然會以最佳方式把握機會。然而,我們認為在此時點進行這項調整是最審慎的作法。
The second comment I would like to make is not a change in guidance itself, but rather a comment on the position of the guidance. If you recalculate the implied results, I would ask you to consider the effective tax rate at the lower end of the range, which reflects our best current estimate.
我想提出的第二點並非指引本身的變更,而是對指引位置的說明。若你們重新計算隱含結果,我希望你們採用區間下緣的有效稅率,這反映了我們目前最佳的估計。
If you run the math based on those assumptions, you will see that the implied bottom line remains unchanged, despite the revision to fee income and insurance results, assuming the effective tax rate remains closer to the lower end of the range, the bottom line outlook is effectively the same.
若依據這些假設進行計算,你們會看到,儘管我們修正了手續費收入與保險結果,只要有效稅率仍較接近區間下緣,隱含的最終獲利(bottom line)仍維持不變,整體獲利展望實質上相同。
This once again demonstrates our ability to provide visibility and deliver consistent earnings, even if the contribution by line item ends up differing from our original assumptions, we still have two quarters ahead of us with important challenges to navigate. The year is far from over, but we believe that we are very well positioned to deliver on our objectives over the next two quarters. As always, should anything change, I will communicate it to you in a timely manner.
這再次展現我們提供能見度並交付穩健獲利的能力;即使各項目別的貢獻最終與我們原先假設不同,我們前方仍有兩個季度,需要面對並克服重要挑戰。今年仍未結束,但我們相信自己已處於非常有利的位置,可在接下來兩個季度達成目標。一如往常,若有任何變化,我會及時與各位溝通。
Well, everyone, as I stated earlier, these are very solid results. We delivered quality performance across all lines. I believe it is extremely important to look at the bank's balance sheet and just as importantly, to understand where earnings are being generated. Above all, what matters is discipline and consistency, allocating capital effectively, generating appropriate returns on allocated capital, deepening primary banking relationships with our clients, increasing engagement, strengthening relationships and managing a transformation process that is occurring at a pace we have never experienced before, whether in terms of cultural transformation or digital transformation.
各位,如我先前所說,這是一份非常穩健的成績。我們在所有業務線都交出了高品質的表現。我認為非常重要的是檢視銀行的資產負債表,同樣重要的是理解獲利是從哪裡產生的。最重要的是紀律與一致性:有效配置資本、在配置的資本上創造適當報酬、深化與客戶的主辦往來關係、提升互動、強化關係,並管理一個以前所未有速度發生的轉型過程,無論是文化轉型或數位轉型。
We have been able to execute and coordinate all these changes simultaneously. These are structural changes to our business models carried out with a high degree of discipline, strong execution focus and most importantly, with a realistic understanding of the many challenges ahead. Both the macroeconomic and microeconomic environments require close attention.
我們已能同時推動並協調所有這些變革。這些是對我們商業模式的結構性調整,以高度紀律、強烈的執行導向進行,更重要的是,對前方眾多挑戰有務實的理解。無論總體或個體經濟環境都需要密切關注。
The level of indebtedness among both companies and households in a restrictive interest rate environment requires caution. Nevertheless, we have been navigating this environment successfully always maintaining a long-term perspective. Thank you once again for your time and continued trust. I will now join Gabriel and Gustavo for our traditional Q&A session. See you shortly.
在利率偏緊的環境下,企業與家庭的負債水準需要謹慎看待。儘管如此,我們一直以長期視角成功因應這樣的環境。再次感謝各位撥冗以及持續的信任。我現在將與Gabriel與Gustavo一起進行我們一如往常的問答環節。稍後見。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Once again from our studio for the Q&A session. We're going to start. And before him, this is a two language session. We're going to answer the questions in the language that they are made. (Operator Instructions).
再次回到我們的攝影棚進行問答環節。我們要開始了。在開始之前,這是一個雙語場次。我們將以提問所使用的語言來回答問題。(接線員指示)。
Bernardo Guttmann, XP Investments.
Bernardo Guttmann,XP Investments。
Bernardo Guttmann - Analyst
Bernardo Guttmann - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity for asking a question and congratulations on the results. Question about the margin with the clients. The quarter was good without the offenders of the first quarter, but any accumulative of the semester, the line is a bit below 5% against a guidance that starts at 5% and goes to 9%. The guidance was kept. I want to understand where the acceleration is coming from in the second semester, more volume, more mix margin of liabilities or any relevant own capital in this account.
各位早安。感謝提供提問機會,也恭喜本季成果。我想問關於客戶端利差(margin with the clients)。本季表現不錯,沒有第一季那些拖累因素,但若看上半年累計,該項目略低於5%,而指引區間是從5%到9%。指引仍維持不變。我想了解下半年加速的動能會來自哪裡:更多量、負債端利差的組合改善,或是這個科目中有任何重要的自有資本因素?
And the (inaudible) rate and the cycle turning, how do you foresee the behavior of the margin of liabilities from now on?
另外,隨著(聽不清)利率與景氣循環轉向,你如何看待接下來負債端利差的走勢?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Bernardo. Great to see you. Thank you for the initial words. It's a good topic, so we can start the discussion. Your question is more specific about the guidance, but I want to talk about the specific growth of the margin.
謝謝你,Bernardo。很高興見到你。也謝謝你一開始的話。這是個很好的題目,我們可以從這裡開始討論。你的問題更聚焦在指引,但我想先談談利差的具體成長。
We see the portfolio growing about 10%, maybe a bit below. It should, in the next quarters have a bit of a reduction, but it's still above the midpoint of the guidance. It should stay there. And due to the dynamics of growth, it should be in a higher threshold.
我們看到放款組合成長約10%,可能略低一些。接下來幾季可能會稍微放緩,但仍高於指引的中位數。應該會維持在那個水準。而由於成長的動態,它應該會落在較高的區間。
There is a Columbia operation that leaves now in July, BRL10 billion of credit that allows us to grow in the previous phase, and we're talking about a delta growth. Second effect, the margin, as we see it today, it's growing below the portfolio. Some asked, why is the margin growing below. The explanation is the same one as the next quarters.
有一項哥倫比亞的業務在7月退出,涉及100億巴西雷亞爾的授信,這讓我們在前一階段得以成長;我們談的是成長的增量(delta)。第二個影響是,依我們目前所見,利差的成長低於放款組合。有人問,為什麼利差成長低於組合。原因與接下來幾季相同。
First, when we look at the portfolio, we see the margin of assets of credit growing align with our portfolio. So when we open the margin, we have the credit assets. We have liabilities. We have working capital, and we have structured operations.
首先,當我們看放款組合時,我們看到信貸資產端利差的成長與我們的組合一致。因此當我們拆解利差時,我們有信貸資產。我們有負債。我們有營運資金,還有結構性交易。
First, relevant information for you is that the margin of assets is growing aligned with the average results. In the margin of liabilities, we had in the previous years, an important acceleration with the interest rate hike and an increase also in the performance. We see a strong activity.
首先,對你而言重要的資訊是,資產端利差的成長與平均結果一致。在負債端利差方面,過去幾年因升息而出現顯著加速,同時績效也有所提升。我們看到活動非常強勁。
So we have a relevant growth especially last year in the liability margin. And the price which is what we tend to analyze along with the balance. In this quarter, we have the base effect with the assets when we compare it with the previous -- with the first quarter, the first quarter of last year, we had the full capital and last year, we did in anticipation of the dividend. So we got into the first semester with capital with a lower threshold.
因此,特別是去年,我們在負債端利差有顯著成長。而價格(也就是我們通常會與資產負債表一起分析的部分)。在本季,當我們把資產與前期比較時會有基期效應——與上一季相比、以及與去年第一季相比,去年第一季我們有完整資本,而去年我們為了提前發放股利而做了安排。因此我們在上半年是以較低水準的資本進入的。
That's the effect on the working capital. Fourth effect that really explains the volatility of the margin are the structured operations. LatAm doesn't really bring a lot of volatility. There is an exchange rate effect on the results, but the structure of the wholesale, they have volatility effects. So when we look at the two quarters, the expectation is that the range still comprises our best opinion of projections. Of course, it depends on the activity and a series of factors.
這就是對營運資金的影響。第四個、真正解釋利差波動性的因素,是結構性操作。拉丁美洲本身並不會帶來太多波動。結果中確實有匯率影響,但批發業務的結構本身會帶來波動效應。因此,當我們看這兩個季度時,我們的預期是:該區間仍然代表我們對預測的最佳判斷。當然,這取決於業務活動以及一系列因素。
Nonetheless, we can see some volatility in the margin in the third, fourth quarter, but due to the seasonality of the structured operations of the wholesale that tend to be stronger in the fourth quarter. So when we do the projection of the margin, everything else constant, we believe that the current range comprises it's a range. It's not a point. It comprises that.
儘管如此,我們在第三、第四季仍可能看到利差的一些波動,但這是因為批發端結構性操作具有季節性,且通常在第四季較強。因此,當我們做利差預測時,在其他條件不變下,我們認為目前的區間就是一個區間。它不是一個點值。它涵蓋了這些情況。
So when we see the effect of the interest rate, it didn't affect the rate itself when we look at the implicit working capital in regards to the previous quarter. But when we normalize the RAP effects and also in this quarter, the working capital had a lower effect which is selling the real estate that stays in the working capital, we see the rate of the working capital being aligned with the previous quarter.
因此,當我們看利率的影響時,若就相較前一季的隱含營運資金而言,它並沒有影響利率本身。但當我們將RAP效應正常化、同時在本季營運資金的影響較低(也就是出售仍留在營運資金中的不動產)之後,我們看到營運資金的利率水準與前一季一致。
And remember, we do the long-term hedge of these operations, the liability and the working capital. Even in a cycle of interest rate, the pass through to the margin is not automatic. There is an temporal gap as the hedges are done for the longer verdecies.
請記得,我們對這些操作(負債與營運資金)做的是長期避險。即使在利率循環中,對利差的傳導也不是自動發生的。由於避險是以較長到期(verdecies)進行,因此存在時間落差。
So we depend on the activity because the activity of liability work together. We have a cash pressure stronger and also the individual the efficiency, they pressure the liabilities, they grow the balance and the margin will depend on the dynamic of the interest rates, which depend on internal, external and mono factors. We have everything depending on the scenario inflation, the interest rates on the United States, so we can have a clear vision.
因此我們取決於業務活動,因為負債端的活動是一起運作的。我們面臨更強的現金壓力,同時個別效率也會對負債端造成壓力;它們推動資產負債表成長,而利差將取決於利率的動態,而利率動態又取決於內部、外部以及單一(mono)因素。一切都取決於情境:通膨、美國利率等,因此我們才能有清晰的視野。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Schroden, Citi Bank.
Gustavo Schroden,花旗銀行。
Gustavo Schroden - Analyst
Gustavo Schroden - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you. Congratulations on the results. Quite solid. I apologize, and I'm going to insist issue of the question of Bernardo, but I'm going to try and bring it towards the optics of growing the portfolio.
各位早安。謝謝。恭喜本季業績。相當穩健。抱歉,我要再堅持追問Bernardo的問題,但我會嘗試把它放在投資組合成長的角度來看。
If we analyze the bank, it has a few lines, and it's focused on the private payroll loans, small companies. So I wanted to understand what is the sustainability of this level of growth in these three main vectors of growth. The small- and medium-sized companies is exposed to a higher interest rate that we should have, even though we are expecting cuts, we are still going to have a lira higher macro scenario challenging.
如果我們分析這家銀行,它有幾條業務線,並且聚焦在民營薪資扣款貸款(private payroll loans)、小型企業。因此我想了解,在這三個主要成長動能上,這樣的成長水準是否可持續。中小企業面臨我們應該仍會處於較高利率的環境;即便我們預期會降息,整體宏觀情境仍將更具挑戰、利率仍偏高。
The private payroll loan (inaudible) is a product that has delinquency pressures. There is a cap in the interest rates so we need to understand the size of this market. Is it possible to keep this level of growth for the next 12 months.
民營薪資扣款貸款(聽不清)是一個面臨逾期壓力的產品。利率又有上限,因此我們需要了解這個市場的規模。未來12個月是否可能維持這樣的成長水準?
And the real estate, when you have higher interest rates. So I really want to understand what is the dynamic of the portfolio from now on to sustain this growth of NII that is more pure of credit and a follow-up on the structured operations.
另外是不動產,在利率較高時也是如此。所以我真正想了解的是:從現在開始,投資組合的動態為何,才能支撐這種更偏「純信用」的淨利息收入(NII)成長,以及對結構性操作的後續追蹤。
Maybe we should expect a contribution for the semester for the end of the year. So if you can clarify what is the dynamic of the dividends that come from the quasi-equity operations that you have? They are linear. Do we have a seasonality here in because it's more concentrated towards the end of the year. So we wanted to understand those nuances.
也許我們應該預期在下半年、到年底會有貢獻。因此,能否請你說明你們準股權(quasi-equity)操作所帶來的股利貢獻動態?它們是線性的嗎?是否存在季節性,因為它更集中在年底?我們想了解這些細微差異。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Gustavo. Thank you for the question. Great to see you. let me try and bring forth a few relevant events. The SMEs, we managed to grow, grow with quality with great dynamics, healthy of risk management. And we have a clear strategy for many quarters to grow in the government programs.
謝謝你,Gustavo。謝謝你的提問。很高興見到你。我嘗試提出幾個相關重點。在中小企業方面,我們成功成長,而且是高品質成長,動能良好、風險管理健全。而且我們已經連續多個季度有明確策略:在政府方案中擴張。
It's a guaranteed portfolio. We've decreased in the government programs, one with the better ratings customers, we build a portfolio with them all throughout the years. It's a portfolio that has performed regardless of the challenging context and the cost of credit and results in a profitability level are being delivered very solidly for a segment.
那是一個有擔保的投資組合。我們在政府方案中的占比有所下降;在評等較佳的客戶上,我們多年來持續與他們建立投資組合。這個投資組合在具挑戰的環境下仍有表現;信貸成本與結果所帶來的獲利水準,對該細分市場而言一直非常穩健。
So government still helps to withhold the delinquency at a lower threshold, but even the clients that are not in the government products, we're growing with quality. I've explained in the presentation about the delay to reinforce.
因此,政府仍有助於將逾期控制在較低門檻;但即便是不在政府產品中的客戶,我們也在以高品質方式成長。我在簡報中已解釋過延遲(delay),再補充強調一下。
We've seen a stability in these delays in the SMEs mainly because of the mechanical issues of the deadlines. Since we are to zero, we have a mechanical growth of NPL. The guarantees are exercised, depending on the program, depending on 90 days, maybe 180 days. So to go through the days before you execute guarantee. So there should be another 10 bps of growth and stability said well, given the information that we have right now, the scenario is dynamic.
我們看到中小企業的這些逾期(delay)保持穩定,主要是因為到期日的機械性因素。由於我們從接近零的水準開始,NPL會出現機械性成長。擔保的執行取決於不同方案,可能是90天,也可能是180天。因此需要先走完天數,才會執行擔保。所以可能還會再增加約10個基點並趨於穩定;但就我們目前掌握的資訊而言,情境仍是動態的。
If we have the deterioration, we're going to bring more information. The private payroll low, in the previous product that was -- you had specific agreements, BRL40 billion market. So we had 30% of the market BRL12 billion of portfolio. It's a product that we are learning to work throughout the years by the know-how giving it to the credit to the companies or the individuals. The private payroll loan called (inaudible), is the junction of these two management.
如果出現惡化,我們會提供更多資訊。民營薪資扣款貸款方面,先前的產品是——你們有特定協議,市場規模為4,000億雷亞爾。我們當時有30%的市占,也就是1,200億雷亞爾的投資組合。這是一個我們多年來持續學習如何運作的產品,透過專業know-how把信貸提供給企業或個人。所謂(聽不清)的民營薪資扣款貸款,是把這兩種管理方式結合在一起。
From the inception, we're focusing on public that is the target audience for this product. It's a public that most of them have an account, checking account in the bank. We haven't operated in the open see because of the delinquency that is very high, the stability of the operation is still relevant issues and some processes that need to are. messages. We are growing with quality.
從一開始,我們就聚焦在這個產品的目標客群。這些客群多數在本行都有帳戶、活期帳戶。由於逾期非常高、操作穩定性仍是重要議題,且有一些流程需要(不完整)訊息,因此我們沒有在公開市場(open see)操作。我們正在以高品質方式成長。
We should stabilize the deadlines delays, indices similar to the previous product and we're going to see the nominal that are going to grow. Well, the portfolio grows a lot, obviously, it's not going to grow a deter it should stabilize, but we see great opportunities to produce with great risks and a dynamic of delinquency that is very adequate.
我們應該會讓到期/逾期(deadlines delays)指標穩定在與先前產品相近的水準,並且會看到名目規模成長。當然,投資組合成長很多,不可能一直以同樣速度成長;它應該會趨於穩定,但我們看到很好的機會,能在良好風險水準下承作,且逾期動態非常合適。
Most importantly, we are running, and I presented that we're running at about half of the indicator of the delays of the system, the data has been published recently. We're running with an indicator of delays maybe at half. So it's an operation that creates value, generates profitability. And most importantly, we service our clients with the products that are more adequate. This is the focus.
最重要的是,我們目前的逾期指標大約只有系統的一半;相關數據最近已公布。我們的逾期指標可能約為一半。因此這是一項能創造價值、帶來獲利的操作。更重要的是,我們以更合適的產品服務客戶。這就是重點。
I would not be a bank focused on the client. I want to offer a product that is cheaper. And it helps to explain why the individuals, they don't grow in the and the employees, we dropped in 7%. And we grow -- well, there is an exchange, so we can avoid the over in debtedness of our clients.
我不會成為一家以客戶為中心的銀行。我想提供更便宜的產品。這也有助於解釋為什麼個人端——以及員工端——我們下降了7%。而我們成長——嗯,因為有一個交換機制,所以我們可以避免客戶過度負債。
I brought the data that in our portfolio, our clients have performed and the delay levels have had has been very well behaved. So there was a comeback of the change of the mechanics of the real estate credit, 65 directed 20 compulsory and 15 free resources of the 20 of the compulsory 5 came back. So that generated an additional resources, and we have the real estate credit in the client vision.
我帶來的數據顯示,在我們的投資組合中,客戶表現以及逾期水準一直都相當穩健。因此,房地產信貸機制的變更出現了回歸:65為定向、20為強制、15為自由資金;在強制的20中,有5回來了。這因此帶來了額外資源,而我們以客戶視角來看房地產信貸。
How I service the client in the completeness of their needs in the best way possible and given the mix that we have between treasury and savings and all the hedges that we do, we grow with quality because we see that, that portfolio, we need to see it as the funding comes back.
我如何以最佳方式、在滿足客戶完整需求的前提下提供服務;並且考量我們在資金部位與儲蓄之間的組合,以及我們所做的所有避險,我們以高品質成長,因為我們看到那個投資組合——我們需要把它視為資金回流。
The model changes next year. We have gradual releases of convulsory, 1.5% for the next 10 years. At the limit in a time, you have two forces. One is savings more pressured. It just dropped 0.6% in this period. So it has a behavior that is stable. We have the order strength, which is the increase to the direction that will release funding to the market.
明年模型會改變。強制資金將逐步釋放,未來10年每年1.5%。在某個時間點的上限,你會有兩股力量。一個是儲蓄端壓力更大。在這段期間它只下降了0.6%。所以它的表現是穩定的。我們還有指令性的力量,也就是定向比例的提高,將把資金釋放到市場。
So we still see the capacity to grow pricing correctly. If you compare it to any other banks, and I'm talking about the private ones, our return for every real margin in credit is the best, given our relationship of treasury and real estate credit. We are very comfortable. Companies are depending on the capital market.
因此我們仍然看到以正確定價來成長的能力。如果你拿來和其他銀行比較——我指的是民營銀行——在信貸的實質利差回報上,考量我們資金部位與房地產信貸的關係,我們是最好的。我們非常安心。企業端正依賴資本市場。
We have a capital market that is more erratic over the last month, two months weaker, one more active, up ahead, it depends on the activities, which will drive our capacity to grow. Most importantly, we've been very disciplined in the capital allocation and returns. Very easy to grow portfolio with the wrong returns.
過去一個月資本市場更為波動,兩個月偏弱、某一個月又更活躍;往前看,取決於活動情況,這將驅動我們的成長能力。最重要的是,我們在資本配置與回報上一直非常自律。用錯的回報去擴張投資組合是很容易的。
When we look at the whole portfolio that we have, vehicles, big companies, we've seen the level of appetite in the market that is higher. When we see the operation of the model of return with the allocated capital and we have an accuracy level that is very high in these models, we see that these operations are destroying the value for the shareholders when they're below capital.
當我們看整體投資組合——車貸、大型企業——我們看到市場的胃納水準更高。當我們用已配置資本來看回報模型的運作,而且我們在這些模型上的準確度非常高時,我們看到當這些交易的回報低於資本成本時,會在摧毀股東價值。
This is not the dynamic of our vision. So we see opportunities of increasing in allocation. The portfolio will continue to grow with quality. We've grown in the companies and individuals and the best clients and the best ratings, resilient public, and we've grown margin of assets in the same level.
這不是我們願景的動態。因此我們看到提高配置的機會。投資組合將持續以高品質成長。我們在企業與個人端、最好的客戶與最佳評級、具韌性的客群上都有成長,而資產利差也維持在同一水準。
And what decelerated is structured and liabilities all dividends, your question. It doesn't have a very clear dynamic because every company releases their dividends whenever they want -- so you have to have a fiscal base to be able to operate with these operations. So this is a care that we have the issues of the DTAs, which is very relevant.
而放緩的是結構性產品與負債端、以及所有股利——回到你的問題。它沒有非常清楚的動態,因為每家公司想什麼時候發股利就什麼時候發——所以你必須有稅務基礎才能操作這些交易。因此我們特別留意DTA(遞延所得稅資產)相關議題,這非常重要。
Secondly, typically, the companies give dividends at the end of the year, the end of the first. But eventually, there's going to be a structuring the client needs rescue and they're going to pay an extraordinary dividend. It's been erratic for us, this portfolio. It's difficult to affirm how the margin will behave because since we are at a any marginal operation will generate volatility. That's why we are looking at the guidance, well, at the end of the year since the dividend is going to be paid, then we have more surety in our operations.
第二,通常公司會在年底、或第一季末發放股利。但有時候會因為客戶在結構安排上需要資金回收,而支付特別股利。對我們而言,這個投資組合一直很不規則。很難斷言利差會如何表現,因為在我們目前的水位下,任何邊際交易都會帶來波動。這就是為什麼我們看指引時——嗯——到年底股利要支付時,我們在操作上就更有把握。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Beatrice, UBS.
Beatrice,UBS。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Thank you for the question. Our question is about efficiency. In the quarter, it's a bit higher due to seasonality, but we see a trend that is very good. Do you still see a space for an improvement in this index and if you ask what are the main drivers? Thank you for continuous improvement.
謝謝回答。我們的問題是關於效率。本季因季節性因素略高,但我們看到趨勢非常好。你們是否仍看到這個指標有改善空間?如果有,主要驅動因素是什麼?謝謝你們持續改善。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Beatrice. Do you remember that in the previous quarter, we brought a view of the efficiency level in time, looking at a few segments of business. We had efficiency indices that were benchmarks and where we saw segments that are still scalable from the standpoint of efficiency indices, the efficiency and depends on the revenue. That's the focus. We see that this is the best second quarter that we had the first semester that we had in the efficiency semester -- there is a seasonality.
謝謝你,Beatrice。你還記得在上一季,我們帶來了效率水準隨時間變化的觀點,並看了幾個業務分部。我們有一些效率指標已達到同業標竿,同時也看到某些分部從效率指標角度仍具可擴展性;效率取決於收入。這就是重點。我們看到這是我們第二季、也是上半年在效率表現上最好的——存在季節性。
First semester is where we see less expenses and the levers are what we've seen the application of technology. A lot of the fruits of the investments that the bank has done throughout the years. They -- their fruits and we get to an efficiency level -- that is very good. It's a virtuous trend, it's not from this period.
上半年通常是我們看到費用較少的時期,而槓桿來自於我們看到的科技應用。這是銀行多年來投資所結出的許多成果。這些——這些成果讓我們達到一個非常好的效率水準。這是一個良性趨勢,不是只出現在這一期。
If you have the longer periods of the bank, you're going to see this. We believe that this has a potential of the plans, the level of detail, the discipline that the bank has in scalability is big and it's what we expect for the future. And I reinforce the words of Gabriel.
如果你看銀行更長期的期間,你會看到這一點。我們相信,計畫的潛力、細節程度,以及銀行在可擴展性上的紀律都很強,這也是我們對未來的期待。我也再次強調Gabriel的話。
Yes, it's very demanding, yes.
是的,要求非常高,是的。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Marcelo Mizrahi, BBI.
Marcelo Mizrahi,BBI。
Marcelo Mizrahi - Analyst
Marcelo Mizrahi - Analyst
So thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations on the results. I want to see the service line with a review of the guidance, but I wanted to understand more of the dynamics that provoke this review. And what is the strategy of the bank that is about the issuance of credit cards, the lines of payment, the payments of companies, acquirents and even the insurance line, I wanted to understand the service lines up ahead.
謝謝給我這個機會。恭喜你們的業績。我想看服務收入這條線在指引調整後的情況,但我更想了解促成這次調整的動態。以及銀行在信用卡發卡、支付線(付款線)、企業支付、收單,甚至保險線上的策略是什麼;我想了解未來的服務線。
But looking at the dynamic of this activity, the mix services should have a behavior that is more cautious and lower growth maybe for tax year given the growth of cash that is potentially lower, these lines can be affected. What is in here -- what is the change of strategy? The maintenance of the strategy, do you agree with this vision? Thinking about the mix of the portfolio, the strategy of the bank, do we think about this weaker line in the next quarters? Thank you.
但從這項活動的動態來看,服務組合的表現可能會更謹慎、成長更低,或許在本財年,因為現金成長可能較低,這些線別可能會受到影響。這裡面——策略改變了什麼?策略維持不變的話,你同意這個看法嗎?從投資組合的組合、銀行策略來看,我們是否要預期接下來幾季這條線會較弱?謝謝。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you for your participation. I think it's great that we can talk about this line because there was a change. And for every component of the services and insurance, there should be a small explanation. So first, talking about credit cards. Specifically individuals, there is a double effect.
謝謝你的參與。我覺得我們能談這條線很好,因為確實有變化。而對於服務與保險的每個組成部分,都需要稍作說明。首先談信用卡。特別是在個人端,存在雙重效應。
If we can summarize our strategy. First, throughout the years, we did a derisking, important derisking in the portfolio in the income toward the less resilient public, we did a derisking that is very relevant. Looking here in the rearview mirror, we lost marginally revenue. We saved important volumes of loss of credit. So the strategy was good.
如果我們可以總結一下我們的策略。第一,多年來,我們在投資組合中針對收入較低、韌性較弱的客群進行了去風險化,這是一項非常重要且相當有意義的去風險措施。回頭看,我們的收入僅略有下降。但我們避免了大量的信用損失。因此,這個策略是好的。
Second, we've been ever more focused in the high income which is where we're growing the portfolio. And when we grow in these publics, it's a product that is clearly more expensive. We do a reduction of the payments, monthly payments. So we reduce the friction, and we are generating an operation that is completely dedicated to the vision of lifetime value engagement with the client, reduced the friction of the yearly rate, but the rewards are more expensive.
第二,我們愈來愈聚焦於高收入客群,這也是我們投資組合成長的所在。而當我們在這些客群中成長時,產品顯然更昂貴。我們降低了付款金額、每月付款。因此我們降低摩擦,並且打造一個完全以客戶終身價值(lifetime value)互動願景為核心的營運,降低年利率帶來的摩擦,但回饋(rewards)的成本更高。
We see the players using the credit card as a cost of acquisition of the client making it more expensive and in our vision the public demand, better service with best conditions and in the standpoint of the vision of product and we have the exchange in an adequate rhythm. There is a strategy with the services and insurance, a great deal of the growth has been financed with the portfolio with the interest rates.
我們看到同業把信用卡當作獲客成本來使用,使其變得更昂貴;而在我們的觀點中,客群需求是更好的服務與更佳條件,從產品願景的角度來看,我們也以適當的節奏進行調整與交換。在服務與保險方面也有策略,相當一部分的成長是透過投資組合的利率來支撐與融資的。
And we are using the product of credit card as a finance for the consumption and not as a product for the client that has a more deteriorated situation and has a novo draft or the payment of the credit card. There is a series of -- we're increasing the elasticity for the high-income clients. And we're doing this in a very material way.
我們把信用卡產品用作消費融資,而不是用在狀況較惡化、需要新增透支或以信用卡來周轉付款的客戶身上。有一系列的措施——我們正在提高高收入客戶的彈性。而且我們是以非常實質的方式在做。
So this component has to be in the context of the credit card strategy, but it's in the margin of the clients. It's not in the revenue of services for the credit card. The administration of resources, is very important. The per fee, even though there is a more difficult market, we are the second asset that has a good performance relative, but it wasn't good for everyone.
因此,這個組成必須放在信用卡策略的脈絡中理解,但它反映在客戶的利差(margin)上。它不在信用卡的服務收入中。資產管理(administration of resources)非常重要。就手續費(fee)而言,即使市場更艱難,我們仍是表現相對良好的第二大資產管理者,但並非所有人都表現良好。
Again, so it means that an perfect comes in the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, we had a lower performance in the third quarter of last year. So it's a risk management dynamic. We hope to be in the correct side even though with the volatility is difficult to generate per fee results.
再者,這表示第二季出現了不完美的情況。在第四季,我們的表現低於去年第三季。因此這是一種風險管理的動態。即使在波動之下很難產生手續費成果,我們仍希望站在正確的一邊。
And on the other hand, we are growing the balances. And the rates are kept and that generates resources for administration. And also the consortium has helped a lot. When we talk about the investment bank. When we see ECM M&A stopped (inaudible) Fixed income is a better month in June. But we have to remember, we like to look at the operations of the bonds and real estate, specifically in the rankings, joining what is origination and distribution.
另一方面,我們也在擴大餘額。利率維持不變,這為資產管理帶來資源。此外,聯合貸款(consortium)也幫助很大。當我們談到投資銀行時,我們看到 ECM、M&A 停滯(聽不清),固定收益在 6 月是一個較好的月份。但我們必須記得,我們喜歡看債券與不動產的交易,特別是在排名上,把承銷(origination)與分銷(distribution)結合起來看。
As you can see, we are still the leaders with a big advantage. Distribution and it shows that a lot of the origination we distributed in the market. And we don't do those operations exclusively for balance. We do it by the good dynamic of the capital markets and the operations for the distribution of the market. And this is an important component to see because these operations when you see the result all in, which is the spread of credit loss fee that you get.
如你所見,我們仍然是領先者,而且優勢很大。在分銷方面,這也顯示我們把相當多的承銷量分銷到市場上。我們不會只為了資產負債表而做這些交易。我們是基於資本市場的良好動態,以及面向市場分銷的交易來做。這是一個重要的觀察點,因為當你看這些交易的整體結果(all in)時,也就是你取得的信用利差、信用損失與手續費的綜合。
And then we've seen operations in the market that are very much below the cost of capital. So a great deal of the operations that we lost, we lost because of price because the operation doesn't return cost of capital. And it's been years operating. I's not difficult to do the calculation of capital allocation and return the operations that come between 1% and 12% that destroy value in the vision of the client, but there is an important innovation that depends on the dynamic of the market, and it depends on the higher risk.
接著我們看到市場上有些交易的定價遠低於資本成本。因此,我們失去的許多交易,是因為價格——因為該交易無法回收資本成本。而這種情況已經持續多年。做資本配置與報酬的計算並不困難;那些介於 1% 到 12% 的交易,從客戶視角看是在破壞價值,但也有重要的創新,取決於市場動態,也取決於更高的風險。
These returns that I'm mentioning are considering the fee which is recognized again. So the risk that you recognize the risk that you run is big -- recognize big risks and the duration of these portfolios might be seven years. So you have that tied down for that time. You have an asset of low profitability because it gives 12% of return, considering 12% an ever seen operations below that considering the fee.
我提到的這些報酬是把手續費也納入考量(手續費會再次被認列)。因此,你所承擔並認列的風險很大——你認列了很大的風險,而這些投資組合的存續期間可能是七年。所以你在那段時間內被綁住。你持有的是低獲利性的資產,因為它的報酬只有 12%;而且我們也看過低於這個水準的交易(在納入手續費後仍然如此)。
So that dynamic is bad. You recognize a fee, you do a big result. And eventually, you might be recognizing the operation with a lower profitability at the long term which is dilutive for the profitability. The other one, we try to be very careful with the credit looking at the operations that we will lose because of appetite. It goes through any reasons, but sometimes we don't do any -- some operations because it affects the market as a whole.
所以這種動態是不好的。你認列一筆手續費,短期做出很大的結果。但最終,你可能在長期認列的是較低獲利性的交易,這會稀釋整體獲利能力。另外,我們在信用上會非常謹慎,去看那些我們會因為風險偏好而放棄的交易。原因可能很多,但有時我們不做某些交易,是因為它會影響整個市場。
When we go to insurance, we've had an important component for growth of the operation of the core, the bancassurance is doing well. What doesn't mean that deadline is exclusively for our bancassurance. It brings reps and other effects, you might have some volatility there in the yearly. And quarter-on-quarter, the patron the equivalents, we have public data and that's been displayed and this is clear. So we can grow with a lot of quality. We've grown in the year-on-year. The premiums issued are relevant and with the numbers very well behaved.
談到保險,我們的核心業務成長有一個重要組成,銀保(bancassurance)表現良好。這並不表示期限(deadline)只與我們的銀保有關。它會帶來佣金(reps)與其他影響,因此年度數據可能會有一些波動。而在季對季方面,patron 與同業(equivalents),我們有公開數據,且已經呈現出來,這點很清楚。因此我們可以以很高的品質成長。我們在年對年上也有成長。簽發保費(premiums issued)相當可觀,且數字表現非常穩健。
The government has, social security has an important result as well. So looking up ahead, so it depends on the activity, but every line has a different strategy. It's important that we have that vision of the client and companies I didn't talk about the flow of receivables.
政府方面、社會保障也有重要的成果。因此往前看,這取決於活動狀況,但每一條線都有不同的策略。重要的是我們要有以客戶為中心的視角;而企業端我還沒有談到應收款項(receivables)的流量。
It's important that we brought ready in-house in the results of (inaudible), there is a double effect. First, the mix we grow more in the wholesale than the retail, which affects the results. Secondly, the integration of the bank to the business, so we don't look at the vision of the product, we look at clients. The floating in the business of ready, it's not in the slide is where the margin will decline. It's an adjustment that we should do ahead having a clear view of the whole and the big offender are the packages of companies, tariffs that we are reducing directionally.
重要的是,我們已在(聽不清)的結果中把 ready 內部化,這有雙重效果。第一,我們在批發端的成長多於零售端,這會影響結果。第二,是銀行與業務的整合,因此我們不以產品視角來看,而是以客戶來看。ready 業務中的浮動(floating)不在投影片上,但那是利差會下降的地方。這是一項我們接下來應該做的調整,要對全局有清晰的視野;而最大的影響者是企業套裝方案(packages)的費率(tariffs),我們正朝著降低的方向調整。
And the objection of this reduction is to remove the friction, increasing the lifetime value and creating long-term value. So we see the rates of engagement with the packages. And the individuals are dropping. We're generating a result that it's one-third of what we generated in the past. When we did the transition without being the bank more efficient, more focused with the client that for the long term is very relevant.
而這次降費的目的,是移除摩擦、提升終身價值,並創造長期價值。因此我們看到套裝方案的互動/黏著(engagement)率。而個人端正在下降。我們產生的結果只有過去的三分之一。當我們完成轉型後,銀行變得更有效率、更以客戶為中心,這對長期而言非常重要。
And for the future, it depends on the activities. Let's see how can we grow in this and briefly we will be budgeting in 2027. Post election, the space of the interest rates, they are going to facilitate the opening of some of these on.
至於未來,則取決於相關活動。讓我們看看如何在這方面成長;簡而言之,我們將在2027年進行預算編列。選後,在利率空間方面,利率將有助於推動其中一些事項的開展。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Yuri Fernandes.
Yuri Fernandes。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Hello. Good morning, Milton. Congratulations. Well, the profitability growing less in portfolio, so quality and return of results. But I wanted to go back to asset quality. This presentation you commented in I just wanted to know on the 150 for the individuals and SMEs. And there is a seasonal improvement. And a part of this level, you explained, which is with the government programs.
您好。早安,Milton。恭喜。整體而言,投資組合的獲利成長較慢,因此更看重品質與成果回報。但我想回到資產品質。在這份簡報中你提到的,我想了解個人與中小企業那個150的指標。而且有季節性的改善。其中一部分你也解釋了,是與政府方案有關。
But even the individuals, I shouldn't have a lot of effect on that it reflects about it. It's not a vertiginous drop. It's going to be 10, 20 bps, and it's flat. So I want to understand is, if you're comfort with the asset quality, well, things are not going to improve a lot.
但即使是個人端,我認為不應該有很大的影響,或至少不應該反映得那麼明顯。這不是斷崖式下滑。可能是10、20個基點,而且是持平。所以我想了解的是,你們是否對資產品質感到放心,也就是說,情況不會改善太多。
There is a worsening. I know that Itau has a better balance. You are more prepared, but we are concerned are we going to see any levels of worsening or no. This is a scenario of comfort, stability to understand. And if you can explain what happened with the 15 to 90.
是否會出現惡化。我知道伊塔烏(Itaú)的資產負債表更好。你們準備得更充分,但我們擔心的是:我們會看到任何程度的惡化嗎,還是不會?這是一個讓人安心、穩定的情境嗎?我想理解這點。另外也請你解釋一下15到90天那段發生了什麼。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Yuri. Great to see you. First, I believe that what you've held that I tried to transmit during the presentation, you capture it very well. Evidently, the scenario, if we look at the previous quarter and what now the delays that are published in the products, we see a relevant increase with the over 90 days.
謝謝你,Yuri。很高興見到你。首先,我相信你抓到我在簡報中試圖傳達的重點,而且理解得很到位。顯然,如果我們看上一季,以及目前各產品公布的逾期情況,我們看到90天以上逾期有顯著增加。
First information on our side. We didn't change. At any point, our policies of write-off for any product. The [4966] gives you liberty, but we've kept it as is expectation to take the clients write-off, didn't change. We don't do that for provision or using this degree to freedom for that.
先說我們這邊的第一點資訊。我們沒有改變。在任何時點,我們都沒有改變任何產品的核銷(write-off)政策。[4966]確實給了你彈性,但我們維持原本的做法;對客戶的核銷預期並未改變。我們不會為了提列備抵或利用這種彈性去做那件事。
Number two, the derisking of the portfolio that is relevant was done. Today, with the margin, we've managed to grow in a relevant way with a more resilient portfolios with the natural, with the individuals and the company's wholesale retail that has brought a lot of important results. What is the twist for the short-term delay.
第二,投資組合的去風險(derisking)已經完成,而且幅度相當可觀。如今在利差(margin)的帶動下,我們得以在更具韌性的投資組合上實現顯著成長,包含自然人(個人)以及企業端的批發與零售,帶來許多重要成果。那麼短期逾期的變化點是什麼?
If you go back and look at how much we've grown? In the first quarter in regards to the fourth quarter of the last year in the delays -- short delays, you're going to see that we grow much less than what we grew originally. So you see there we've grown 23 bps.
如果你回頭看我們成長了多少?第一季相較去年第四季,在逾期——短期逾期方面,你會看到我們的增幅遠低於先前的成長幅度。你會看到我們只增加了23個基點。
It was much below we've managed to grow. So seasonally, we see a recovery higher with short-term debt because the first quarter seasonally is higher because of that. so we don't expect to see it. But since it was lower, only 23 basis points and removing 324 is the best indicator of the series, then we ran at 50 bps 60 bps in previous quarter glass in the subsequent quarters. So there isn't any signal. It's more difficult. We've worked with the indicators, but no signal of concern for our portfolio that part with the information that we have now, the income that is higher, interest rate is higher.
這遠低於我們原本能達到的成長。因此從季節性來看,第一季短期欠款通常會較高,所以短期逾期會有較明顯的回升;我們不預期會看到更糟的情況。但由於這次增幅較低,只有23個基點,且剔除324後是該序列中最好的指標;而在前幾季以及後續季度,我們曾經跑在50到60個基點。因此沒有任何訊號。情況更具挑戰。我們持續追蹤指標,但就目前掌握的資訊而言,對我們的投資組合沒有令人擔憂的訊號;收入較高、利率也較高。
There is an over offering of credit in the market. Over the years, we are very disciplined to grow in the correct way, but we are very at ease with the indicators. You can expect stability. These are volatilities. Variations that are miniscule. So no type of concern.
市場上存在信貸供給過剩。多年來,我們一直非常自律,以正確的方式成長,但我們對這些指標非常放心。你可以預期穩定。這些只是波動。變動幅度非常小。因此沒有任何需要擔心的地方。
If you look at the cost of credit, the portfolio is very well. If you see the renegotiated portfolio that grows in this quarter, we have two important explanations. First is the draw up, the program of the development.
如果你看信貸成本(cost of credit),投資組合表現非常好。如果你看到本季重新協商(renegotiated)的投資組合增加,我們有兩個重要解釋。第一是開展(draw up)——發展計畫的方案。
And secondly, in the renegotiated portfolio, we have still legal proceedings of last year, and you can only consider renegotiated once it's been -- the plan has been implemented legally. So when you look at the provisions, the creation is stronger now for the second quarter because it's seasonal. If you go back to the previous quarters, it's behavior very similar from the rollout for the short to the long, it grows in creation.
第二,在重新協商的投資組合中,我們仍有去年遺留的法律程序;只有在方案依法落地實施後,才能被認列為「重新協商」。因此當你看備抵(provisions)時,本季的新增提列在第二季會更強,因為有季節性因素。如果你回看前幾季,從短期到長期的展期(rollout)行為非常相似,新增提列會隨之增加。
There is a mechanical effect. We don't do provisions with the creation. We do expected loss some the delay. In short, we anticipate the first quarter and the second quarter, we don't see that effect the coverage over creation that is a wholesale as a whole since we have guaranteed products so they demand less provisions.
這裡有一個機械性效果。我們不會因為「新增」本身就提列備抵。我們是依據逾期情況做預期損失(expected loss)。簡而言之,我們在第一季與第二季提前反映;我們看不到「覆蓋率相對於新增」的那種效果,因為整體批發端有擔保型產品,因此需要較少的備抵提列。
So whatever you see, we are very comfortable with the indicators of credit. Don't see in that any type of message. Our best estimation is stability. We don't have the best estimation for the individuals and the -- that's why individuals for the companies and SMEs, we should worsen basis in the next quarter and then stable in onwards.
所以不論你看到什麼,我們對信貸指標都非常放心。不認為那裡傳遞出任何訊息。我們最好的估計是維持穩定。至於個人端以及——也就是個人、企業與中小企業,我們的最佳估計是下一季可能會以基點計略為惡化,之後則趨於穩定。
With the information available now, it can worsen, but it's not what we are saying. And in general, without the delays and we should bring in the next quarter, which helps to bring the indicators of the market. And our indicators, it's clear how we've distanced ourselves from the market. The mouth has been very open, and we are consistent with the growth of portfolio that is very adequate and the long-term view. That's a message.
以目前可得資訊來看,確實可能惡化,但這不是我們正在傳達的主軸。整體而言,若不看逾期,我們在下一季應該會帶來一些改善,有助於拉動市場指標。而從我們的指標可以清楚看到,我們與市場的差距正在拉開。差距已經非常明顯,而我們在投資組合成長上保持一致性:成長非常適度,並且以長期視角來看。這就是要傳達的訊息。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Renato Meloni, Autonomous.
Renato Meloni,Autonomous。
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Renato Meloni - Analyst
Thank you for opportunity. Congratulations on the execution. I want to start in a broad question. If you can tell us, Milton about the cycle of credit in the industry in the second semester and getting into 2027. So you have -- how much is that helping with the interest rates in 2027. Well, with the previous comment, if you have any deceleration with the growth and the conversion for the guidance, where is that growth coming from the guidance? Maybe you're going to get above the guidance.
謝謝給我這個機會。恭喜執行成果。我想先從一個較宏觀的問題開始。Milton,你能否談談下半年以及進入2027年的產業信貸週期?也就是說——利率在2027年對此有多大幫助?另外延續前面的評論,如果你們在成長與達成指引(guidance)的轉換上出現任何放緩,那麼指引中的成長主要會來自哪裡?也許你們會高於指引。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Renato. The cycle of credit, we've had it for many years. We will manifest differently from the different segments and the different products in every segment. So the choice of how to give credit in a long term and the management of portfolio is viral for what we are delivering.
謝謝你,Renato。信貸週期我們已經經歷很多年了。它會在不同細分市場、以及各細分市場中的不同產品上,以不同方式呈現。因此,如何以長期方式投放信貸,以及投資組合管理的選擇,對我們目前交付的成果至關重要。
Because when we see the portfolio, you look at guidance, you look at macro, you look at the current conditions. You see all the models, and we had great results. We've advanced in artificial intelligence and an important results for the credit management.
因為當我們看投資組合時,你會看指引、看總體環境、看當前狀況。你會看到所有模型,而我們取得了很好的結果。我們在人工智慧方面有所進展,並且在信用管理上取得了重要成果。
The cycle of credit, we've seen a compromise of income government programs that are various of nature that relax had an important impact in our portfolio is immaterial, but it's 1.5 billion renegotiated, we presented 002 with the cost of credit. But for other players, probably the impact is higher, given the share of the program and given the public with the -- which is less of our profile, and we also work on that profile.
在信用週期方面,我們看到政府各類性質的收入補貼/方案有所妥協與放寬,對我們投資組合的影響並不重大,但仍有15億的重新協商,我們在002中連同信用成本一併揭露。但對其他同業而言,影響可能更大,取決於該方案的占比以及其客群——那並非我們的主要輪廓,但我們也有在服務那個輪廓。
So the cycle of credit will be challenging because the United States, possibly two hikes on the interest rates, the curves are going to be happening, there's going to be pressure. The premium of the risk for total short term is well priced, possibly a cutoff of the meeting, which is the base in area, but it depends on the United States.
因此,信用週期將會充滿挑戰,因為美國可能還會再升息兩次,殖利率曲線將會變動,壓力也會出現。短期整體風險溢酬的定價是合理的,可能在某次會議出現一個切點,這是基準情境,但仍取決於美國。
Because if the interest rates are higher, then naturally, that will pull the exchange rate and that will generic will difficult actually to work of the Central Bank. That remains to be seen. So we see that these programs are helping, but there are one-offs. They are not forever. So nothing substitute the discipline of risk management. What we see today is an excess of credit given to the market is an excess of regulation that opened the market in a relevant way.
因為如果利率更高,自然會拉動匯率,整體而言也會讓央行的工作更難。這還有待觀察。所以我們看到這些方案確實有幫助,但它們是一次性的。它們不會永遠存在。因此,沒有任何事能取代風險管理的紀律。我們今天看到的是市場上信貸供給過剩,以及過度監管以一種顯著方式打開了市場。
There is a lot of players operating. There is a lot of credit for the growth of credit is in the (inaudible). Well, the clients are over in that the clients had four or five credit cards. Now we have five, six credit cards for individuals. So we grow the resilient clients, we help them to do that transition in as very possible. But it's a scenario that inspires care.
有很多參與者在營運。信貸很多,而信貸成長是在(聽不清)。嗯,客戶的槓桿偏高,客戶原本有四、五張信用卡。現在個人客戶有五、六張信用卡。所以我們擴大的是更具韌性的客戶,並盡可能協助他們完成那個轉換。但這是一個需要謹慎的情境。
For 2027, we still need to understand the real capacity. But now your final question is, why don't you see that you have a better condition the balance is higher, so we can grow because then we're going to get the mistakes on the long term.
對於2027年,我們仍需要理解真正的承受能力。但你最後的問題是:為什麼你看不到我們因為資產負債表更強、條件更好就去成長?因為那樣我們長期會犯錯。
So we need to have that discipline. That discipline has brought us here. So once you lose that discipline because you think that you need to grow, either to deliver results or to grow the top line, you deliver everything in the PVD thereafter. That affects the capital and worsen your capacity to give credit again.
所以我們需要保持那份紀律。正是那份紀律把我們帶到今天。一旦你因為覺得必須成長——不論是為了交出結果或拉動營收——而失去那份紀律,之後你會在PVD上付出代價。那會影響資本,並削弱你再次放貸的能力。
You're in defensive and you decrease the appetite. So we always want to be always on, giving credit with quality, but with the clients that are more resilient, always looking at the long term. But when we see the market growing rationally, we always need to make a decision. We lose the market share or if we are going to lose market share or money, we'd rather lose market share. So this is the adjustment of the portfolio.
你會轉為防禦並降低風險偏好。所以我們始終希望持續放貸、而且是高品質放貸,但只對更具韌性的客戶,並且永遠看長期。但當我們看到市場以不理性的方式成長時,我們就必須做決策。如果要在失去市占或失去金錢之間選擇,我們寧可失去市占。這就是投資組合的調整。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
[Daniel Vaz, Saffron].
[Daniel Vaz, Saffron]。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Good morning, (inaudible). Congratulations on the results, the stability, the cost of risk of bank, simply to a bank that is always predictable and stable I wanted to go back to my question, efficiency indices. We've heard with Milton and I wanted to understand the management of the cost is, I hope that is very far away from that, but there is a scenario where your revenue growth single digit, how much management could you have a cost contingency to keep the ROI.
早安,(聽不清)。恭喜你們的業績、穩定性,以及銀行的風險成本;你們就是一家一向可預測且穩定的銀行。我想回到我的問題:效率指標。我們聽了Milton的說法,我想了解成本管理——我希望那離我們很遠——但如果出現營收成長只有個位數的情境,你們在成本端能有多少應變空間來維持ROI?
What limits the cost of cost? Is it more institutional, regulatory or simply is a deliberate choice speed of investment, crossing with your revenue, and looking at what we are doing now. You have a review footprint. How much ahead that has AI applied to your business. Thinking about what was done from now on, and now you have 100% support of AI or do you still pay that? Or is that being supported?
成本的上限是什麼?是更多來自制度面、監管面,還是單純是刻意的選擇:投資速度要與營收相互對照,並看我們現在在做什麼。你們有重新檢視據點布局。AI應用在你們業務上已經走到多前面?從現在開始看,你們是否已經100%由AI支援,還是仍需要為此付費?或者那已經被支援了?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Daniel. Thank you for the initial comments. Well, I'm going to see the last (Inaudible - microphone inaccessible) Comment that I wanted to do is the first cost is what is in our hands. Of course, the revenue, we have a production, which is the mechanical, the portfolio and when I look to the future, the revenue is uncertain. It depends on activity. It depends on delinquency and so on.
謝謝你,Daniel。也謝謝你一開始的評論。我先回到最後一個(聽不清——麥克風收音不良)我想說的是:首先,成本是我們能掌控的。當然,營收方面,我們有一個產出機制——也就是投資組合的機械性表現——但當我看向未來,營收是不確定的。它取決於經濟活動。也取決於逾期率等等。
The cost is under matched. We decelerated importantly with the cost of the growth without foregoing the long-term view. We're never going to kill the future. We are always going to generate value for the clients investing in experienced, digital experience in delivering a bank that is ever better for our clients.
成本則是可控的。我們在不放棄長期視角的前提下,顯著放緩了成本成長。我們永遠不會扼殺未來。我們會持續透過投資於體驗、數位體驗,為客戶創造價值,提供一個對客戶而言越來越好的銀行。
Opening new businesses, doing new fronts and all of that we're doing, but we can do both. We can invest in opening the space for that investment. I don't have a silver bullet. It's a series of initiatives that Gabriel has done with the Executive Committee and the bank a deep work, all the levers, mapped initiatives. So that's where we're going certainly. Of course, if we have technology or any other way of accelerating the process, we will do so.
開拓新業務、推進新戰線,以及我們正在做的所有事情,但我們可以兩者兼顧。我們可以投資,同時也為這些投資騰出空間。我沒有什麼一招致勝的方法。這是一系列由Gabriel與執行委員會及銀行一起推動的深度工作:把所有槓桿都梳理清楚、把各項措施都盤點出來。所以我們確實會往那個方向走。當然,如果有科技或任何其他方式能加速流程,我們也會去做。
We are careful with the discipline of the tokens. We are never inhibiting innovation, how we're going to do the intelligent management. And so but efficiency for us is a man truck. It's never as important as it's been now. So with the segments that we can in competitiveness, and we can advance with the market, we have 5 percentage point advances with consistency.
我們在資源配置的紀律上很謹慎。我們從不抑制創新,而是思考如何做智慧化管理。因此,對我們而言,效率是一個主軸。它從未像現在這麼重要。所以在我們能提升競爭力的各個分部,我們能夠隨市場一起前進,並且以一致性取得5個百分點的改善。
We're going to continue to reduce the retail adjusting the cost of service, so we can be more competitive with the digital retail, given all the investment that we've done in technology and transformation of journeys, which allowed us to service our clients with the best digital experience and just I'm going to take a step back.
我們會持續在零售端降本,調整服務成本,讓我們在數位零售上更具競爭力,這也得益於我們在科技與旅程轉型上所做的所有投資,使我們能以最佳的數位體驗服務客戶;我先退一步補充。
In the last month, we had competitive NPS of 18 points produced by (inaudible), which shows the competitive NPS for the market for the winner of the digital experiences. We closed a gap, which was 18 points through these years with the investments and the digital transformation. We are ready to capture the benefits of the digital.
在上個月,我們的競爭性NPS達到18個點,這是由(聽不清)所產出,顯示在市場上數位體驗的贏家之競爭性NPS。透過這些年的投資與數位轉型,我們把原本18個點的差距補上了。我們已準備好去收割數位化的效益。
Gabriel can give you more information.
Gabriel可以提供你更多資訊。
Gabriel Amado De Moura - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Gabriel Amado De Moura - Chief Financial Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
I'd like to answer starting with your question about the results. About the predictability, about the stability. It shows how we're doing thin. At the end of the day, not difficult to grow the credit portfolio. The consequences of what later is part of the decision-making process. So having a cost in a way that is sustainable for the clients with a series of investments that we have to do today to create value in the future.
我想先從你對結果的問題開始回答。關於可預測性、關於穩定性。這顯示我們是如何在做事情的。歸根結底,擴張信貸投資組合並不難。但之後會發生的後果,是決策過程的一部分。因此,我們要以一種對客戶而言可持續的方式來管理成本,同時進行一系列我們今天必須做的投資,以在未來創造價值。
So the efficiency level is very important. It's an engine of competitiveness of the bank. But at the end of the day is the maximization of values. This is what we can do better for our shareholders and our clients. There isn't one initiative. AI is a lever that is important we are implementing. We are bearing the fruits all. We have initiatives that we're doing. At the same time for you to do this, it goes through expenses.
所以效率水準非常重要。它是銀行競爭力的引擎。但歸根結底是價值最大化。這就是我們能為股東與客戶做得更好的地方。並不是只有單一項倡議。AI 是一個重要的槓桿,我們正在推動落地。我們都正在收穫成果。我們有多項正在進行的措施。同時,要做到這些也必然會反映在費用上。
The AI expenses in the bank will increase, but it generates efficiencies, will generate revenues. So it's not different from all the transformation that we had with cloud before. Its expenses have increased, but you generate the development of the privacy for the efficiency of the processes and the bank as a whole. The answer Milton is very complete, but we are doing the best that we can do with the times that we -- that is sustainable, and we can generate value for the shareholders.
銀行在 AI 上的費用會增加,但它會帶來效率提升,也會帶來收入。所以這和我們之前在雲端上的所有轉型並沒有不同。費用確實增加了,但你也推動了隱私保護的發展,提升了流程效率以及整體銀行的效率。Milton 的回答非常完整,但我們正在盡我們所能,在我們所處的時代下以可持續的方式去做,並為股東創造價值。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Tito Labarta, Goldman Sachs.
Tito Labarta,高盛。
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Great. Thanks, Gustavo. Milton, Gabriel. Thanks for the call. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the strong results as well. Also on the strong results as usual. I also want to ask you a little bit about the industry your position in the industry, you're delivering about a 26% ROE in Brazil at a time where a lot of your incumbent competitors are struggling to do double digits, right? And there's concerns about the credit cycle, growth slowing, high interest rate environment?
太好了。謝謝你,Gustavo。Milton、Gabriel。感謝這通電話。謝謝讓我提問,也恭喜你們交出強勁的業績。也一如既往地表現強勁。我也想請教一下你們在產業中的定位:在巴西,你們的 ROE 大約 26%,而此時許多既有競爭對手連雙位數都很吃力,對吧?而市場也擔心信貸週期、成長放緩,以及高利率環境?
And how do you think about that competitive dynamics because that could create some incentives for some irrationality perhaps from some of your competitors to try to improve their position relative to yours. And we saw some -- maybe some pressure on fees, maybe that's related to competition. But how do you think about the competitive dynamics? We also recently saw there was an index that rank as one of the top two banks in Latin America in terms of -- on the one hand, I think the leaders globally typically increase the gap relative to the large, right? Is that a scenario that we're seeing? Or could competitive dynamics change?
你們如何看待這樣的競爭動態?因為這可能會讓某些競爭對手出現一些非理性的誘因,試圖改善相對於你們的地位。我們也看到一些——可能是手續費方面的壓力,也許與競爭有關。但你們怎麼看競爭動態?我們最近也看到有一個指數把你們評為拉丁美洲前二的銀行之一,就——一方面,我認為全球領先者通常會進一步拉大與大型同業之間的差距,對吧?我們正在看到這種情境嗎?還是競爭動態可能改變?
And could they close the gap to some extent? How do you see, given where we are in the cycle, given your position and given where your competitors are today, your ability to sustain these levels of profitability and maybe some of the risks to that? Thank you.
競爭對手是否可能在某種程度上縮小差距?在目前週期位置、你們的定位,以及競爭對手當前狀況之下,你們維持這些獲利水準的能力如何?可能面臨哪些風險?謝謝。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Tito. Good to see you. Thank you for your initial comments. So it's important to this date at the very beginning that we have many competitors in all the segments that we operate. So if you go to the wholesale business, you have Itau BA, then you have incumbent competitors, other competitors for all the rankings and competitors for credit, for cash management, for derivatives, for FX, for everything. Then you go to the wealth management, then you have other competitors for investments, for asset management, so on and so forth. Then this is the same rule that applies for all the other segments, okay.
謝謝你,Tito。很高興見到你。也謝謝你一開始的評論。首先在一開始就要說清楚:我們在所經營的所有業務分部都有很多競爭對手。如果你看批發銀行業務,有 Itaú BBA,還有既有同業,以及在各種排名上的其他競爭者;在授信、現金管理、衍生性商品、外匯等各方面,幾乎都有競爭。再看財富管理,也有其他競爭者在投資、資產管理等領域競爭,依此類推。其他所有分部也同樣適用這個規則,好嗎。
So we have -- when we talk about competitors, I think the first comment I'd like to say is that we have a huge respect for all of them. And I think all of them are doing their homework, everybody trying to compete to be more competitive in the long term, making their investments, trying to grow. Everybody has a budget. Everybody has a board. Everybody has incentives. So this is life as it always worse. But then we have to segment a little bit to understand, I would say, competitors behave.
所以當我們談到競爭對手時,我想先說的第一點是:我們非常尊重所有同業。我認為大家都在做功課,每一家都在努力提升長期競爭力、進行投資、嘗試成長。每一家都有預算。每一家都有董事會。每一家都有激勵機制。這就是一如既往的市場常態。但接下來我們需要稍微做一些分層,才能理解我所說的競爭者行為。
First of all, you're right. We've been able, fortunately, to deliver two digits and a strong 20 plus return on equity in the last years. And we are always trying to deliver the best value creation for our shareholders. And it depends a lot of cost of equity that today we pretty much said at 14.75%. This is where we believe our cost of equity is set, okay?
首先,你說得對。過去幾年我們很幸運能夠交出雙位數、且 20% 以上的強勁股東權益報酬率。我們一直努力為股東創造最佳的價值。這很大程度取決於股權成本,而我們今天大致把它定在 14.75%。我們認為這就是我們的股權成本水準,好嗎?
So whenever we are generating at 14.75% plus, we are creating value to the shareholders. If we are operating there and less than that, we are deploying capital in the wrong way. So this is the discipline we have. It's true that whenever you need to show some results, you try to grow fast and growing portfolios and to underwrite credit in a rational way. We wouldn't be doing that because I believe this is not sustainable.
因此,只要我們創造的報酬高於 14.75%,我們就在為股東創造價值。如果我們的經營報酬落在那個水準或更低,就代表我們以錯誤的方式在配置資本。這就是我們的紀律。確實,當你需要展現一些成果時,你可能會想快速成長、擴張投資組合,並以「看似理性」的方式承作授信。但我們不會這麼做,因為我相信那並不可持續。
And whenever we see some irrationality and it's happening in some segments. We give one step behind and say, that's okay because it's not sustainable. And you know that for a few months, you will see that more clear. And then after that, you will see the market being disciplined again. Why is that?
而當我們看到一些非理性的行為——而且在某些分部確實正在發生——我們會退一步,說沒關係,因為那不具可持續性。你也知道,過幾個月你會看得更清楚。之後你會看到市場再次回到有紀律的狀態。為什麼?
Because then you will show your profits or your revenue growing, but your profit will grow, but your return on equity will be low. And so the stock will be at the end of the day, looking for the capability to have to create value to the shareholders. So this is very, very important for your price book and also for your price earnings.
因為你可能會看到利潤或收入在成長,利潤也會成長,但股東權益報酬率會偏低。而最終,股價會回到市場對「為股東創造價值能力」的評價上。所以這對你的市淨率(P/B)以及本益比(P/E)都非常、非常重要。
And the other thing that market will be looking at is the tangible equity of every institution because the level of leverage you get when you have a small tangible equity, it's a huge leverage. It's not made for make mistake because if you make mistakes in credit, you have just a small portion of our equity real capable to absorb losses. So that's why we believe it's not sustainable. Otherwise, you have to raise capital in the market more and more. So what we are seeing is that there is a rationality in some segments.
市場還會看的另一件事,是每家機構的有形股本(tangible equity),因為當有形股本很小時,你所承擔的槓桿水準就會非常高。這種狀態不容許犯錯,因為一旦在授信上犯錯,你真正能吸收損失的股本就只剩很小一部分。所以我們認為那並不可持續。否則你就必須一次又一次到市場上增資。因此我們看到的是:在某些分部存在理性不足的情況。
This is not enabling us or preventing us to grow. We are growing and growing with discipline. But when we see that, we give a step behind and keep doing the way we believe for the long term. So this discipline is key for the long term.
這並不會讓我們無法成長,也不會阻止我們成長。我們仍在成長,而且是有紀律地成長。但當我們看到那種情況時,我們會退一步,並持續以我們認為符合長期的方式去做。所以這種紀律對長期而言是關鍵。
So when people ask me, what is our Vantage different that you see when you look to your market is the discipline in allocating capital. I think this is for many years and will be for the coming years key. But we see room to grow, we see room to grow our portfolio. So the strategy, the experience is not only a matter of price. Clients are looking for better experience.
所以當人們問我,我們的優勢(Vantage)是什麼、你在市場上看到我們與眾不同之處是什麼,我會說是資本配置的紀律。我認為這在過去很多年是關鍵,未來幾年也仍將是關鍵。但我們仍看到成長空間,也看到擴大投資組合的空間。因此策略與體驗不只是價格的問題。客戶在尋求更好的體驗。
Clients are looking for a full bank that offer you all the products. There is competitive, of course, but has a journey, a digital journey that is excellent. So this is the way we are offering the bank to our clients, and the discipline will be always here. So let's see, in the coming quarters, and time is time. So let's wait and see how sustainable are those approach.
客戶正在尋找一家全方位銀行,能為您提供所有產品。當然競爭很激烈,但我們擁有一段旅程——一段極佳的數位旅程。因此,這就是我們向客戶提供銀行服務的方式,而紀律將始終存在。所以讓我們看看,在接下來幾個季度,時間會給出答案。所以讓我們拭目以待,看看這些做法的可持續性如何。
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Tito Labarta - Analyst
Make sense. Thanks.
明白了。謝謝。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Eduardo Rosman, BTG Pactual.
Eduardo Rosman,BTG Pactual。
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
Eduardo Rosman - Analyst
Thank you for the opportunity. Let's go with the credit cycle and see your opinion. How do you see the system being prepared for a crisis economic one. The market changed a lot. The companies, the Capital Markets Day multiplied. And for example, the industry, there is BRL800 million.
感謝這個機會。我們來談談信貸週期,想聽聽您的看法。您如何看待整個系統對一場經濟危機的準備程度?市場變化很大。企業方面,資本市場日(Capital Markets Day)倍增。例如在產業方面,有8億雷亞爾。
That dilutes [reason] on one side, but it causes changes. And we don't see how the capital markets would react to a crisis. if they would go to the same direction, the individuals, they've lost a lot of shares. We have platforms. Everybody wants to be a bank every today. So how do you compare with the previous crisis, and how do you see the system for potential crisis?
這在一方面稀釋了(原因),但也帶來變化。而我們不知道資本市場在危機中會如何反應,是否會朝同一方向;個人投資者已經損失了很多股票。我們有平台。如今幾乎人人都想成為銀行。那麼,您如何與以往的危機相比較?您如何看待系統面對潛在危機的狀況?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, for the question. When we see the current scenario, there is a lot of changes. Well, we have the volume of credit with the financial system. We have to look at the banking. Well, the volumes are very relevant. And today, we have at least two its in credit -- corporate credit in the system. And we've never had capital markets that is so relevant. This is great because the companies they have access to the market to bank to credit, long-term operations that in the past were public banks now the market can absorb.
謝謝你的問題。當我們看當前情境時,變化很多。我們有金融體系的信貸規模。我們必須看銀行業。這些規模非常重要。而今天,系統中的信貸至少有兩個「它」——企業信貸。而我們從未有過如此重要的資本市場。這很好,因為企業可以同時獲得市場與銀行的信貸,過去由公營銀行提供的長期操作,現在市場也能吸收。
But we're going to see, if we see a relevant crisis of credit, then there's going to be relevant challenges than in the past. Last banks and capital markets discussing. We've had a few cases, we've managed to somehow negotiate in a rational way with all the participants, but it's always a challenge.
但如果出現一場重大的信貸危機,那麼挑戰將比過去更大。銀行與資本市場之間的討論會更複雜。我們曾遇到一些案例,某種程度上能以理性方式與所有參與者協商,但這始終是一項挑戰。
Second point. Regulation is key. And today, the amount of players is very high. So you have a market that is supervision that Central Bank does their work. They also have their budgets, and we are in favor of increasing the budget for the Central Bank.
第二點。監管是關鍵。而今天,參與者的數量非常多。因此你有一個由央行監督的市場,央行在做他們的工作。他們也有預算限制,而我們支持提高央行的預算。
This is the same thing as giving credit, and we don't have the structure of, well, you have all been the market and you don't have a supervision that can follow up on the evolution of the market, not by the speed, but the quality and the limitations, the physical limitations, in fact. That's an important theme that we've discussed. We defend the increase of the budget for the Central Bank, so they can supervision.
這就像放貸一樣:如果你讓所有人都進入市場,但沒有能夠跟上市場演變的監管——不是速度問題,而是品質與限制、實際上的物理限制——那就會出問題。這是我們討論過的一個重要議題。我們主張提高央行的預算,讓他們能夠進行監督。
And then is the unsupervised. The new banks, the newcomers brings the operations to the balance but they distribute to the fund. A great deal of the risk goes back there. So these are capital markets, but it's a risk. It's almost a shadow bank that we have low visibility to what is inside the findings.
接著是未受監督的部分。新銀行、新進者把業務放到資產負債表上,但又分配到基金。很大一部分風險就回到那裡。這屬於資本市場,但也是風險。這幾乎像是影子銀行,我們對基金內部的情況能見度很低。
And when you have a situation of stress who is the owner of the receivables, these are situations that come up, and we are going to have to deal with that. The compromise of revenue is very high. The indicators of delays, above 90 are going up. We have to see the data of the market and the level of credit that was distributed in the market is much higher than the market could absorb. So today, it's very easy to have a credit card.
當出現壓力情境時,應收款的所有者是誰,這類問題就會浮現,而我們將不得不面對。收入承諾程度非常高。逾期指標(90天以上)正在上升。我們必須看市場數據:投放到市場的信貸水準遠高於市場所能吸收的程度。所以今天辦一張信用卡非常容易。
There is no annual fee, you can have six credit cards. You going to pay. You create the effect of this sudden death. And then you go from one to the next, and then you leave the bank that has -- that is the main one. So the scenario in the individuals, SMEs are very pressured.
沒有年費,你可以有六張信用卡。你終究要付錢。這會造成一種「猝死效應」。然後你從一張換到下一張,接著你離開那家——原本主要的那家——銀行。因此,在個人與中小企業端的情境都承受很大壓力。
The level of interest rate is very concerning and this difficult capacity of the companies of investing and paying in the agribusiness has its challenges, perfect storm. The price of commodities, the price of fertilizer logistics with a work, several signs, the destitution more (inaudible) margin.
利率水準非常令人擔憂,而企業在投資與償付方面的能力也很困難;農業綜合企業也面臨挑戰,形成完美風暴。大宗商品價格、肥料價格、物流等多重因素,若干訊號顯示,(聽不清)利潤率。
Now market is liquid. Several actors operating internal usage coming to the funds, the first marketing to the market relevant and can generate an impact, then we go through the dynamic of prices. There is volatility in the spreads of credit but there is important thresholds that are competitive. So the market has absorbed those that use the window have used it well.
目前市場流動性充裕。多個參與者以內部資金運作並流向基金,最初對市場的推廣很重要且可能產生影響,接著我們會經歷價格動態。信貸利差存在波動,但也有一些重要門檻仍具競爭力。因此,市場已吸收了那些使用窗口的人,而且他們用得很好。
And if you need to sell it because of a cash flow, there's going to be a hit that is very big. So that's where we're going to have to follow. But this scenario worse at the margin, and we're going to have to see the unfolding of the structural interest rates and the economy activity. We cannot depend on the transference and the public expenses. We need to bring private investments that in these levels of interest rates, it's more difficult.
但如果你因為現金流需要而必須賣出,衝擊會非常大。所以這就是我們必須持續追蹤的地方。不過這個情境在邊際上更糟,我們必須觀察結構性利率與經濟活動的後續發展。我們不能依賴轉移支付與公共支出。我們需要帶動民間投資,但在這樣的利率水準下會更困難。
Operator
Operator
Mario Pierry, Bank of America.
Mario Pierry,美國銀行。
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Mario Pierry - Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for the opportunity. Congratulations on the results. Not going back to services. As you explained a lot, there is the review of the guidance. But we need to understand. How is -- what that has to do with the migration.
各位早安。感謝這個機會。恭喜本次業績。不回到服務的話題。如你們已解釋很多,指引(guidance)有所調整。但我們需要理解。這——這與遷移有什麼關係?
We've talked about the migration of the clients for the equity. In the revenue, and we're going to have the cross-sell of products. And we have that review of the revenue that we see that the migration occurred but the benefits are not as good as we expected. How do you see that migration and the benefits for the results of the bank. Thank you.
我們談過客戶向權益(equity)遷移。在收入方面,我們也會有產品交叉銷售。而我們看到收入的那次調整,顯示遷移確實發生了,但帶來的效益不如我們預期。你們如何看待這個遷移,以及它對銀行業績的效益?謝謝。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you for the initial comments. And no. That's not the explanation. We're very positive with the evolution of the migration of One Itau that we've done throughout the quarter. First, we concluded the migration second year NBS levels above 80%, very strong with a small fraction, 99.3% of the clients migrated with a digital experience that is very solid, and we managed to get 18 points of NPS in regards to the leader of the digital bank.
謝謝你一開始的評論。不是。那不是原因。我們對本季度推進的 One Itau 遷移進展非常正面。首先,我們完成了遷移;第二,NBS 水準高於80%,非常強勁;只有很小一部分例外,99.3%的客戶完成遷移,數位體驗非常穩健,而且相較於數位銀行領先者,我們的NPS提升了18個點。
The new products, more than 20 products launched in the period with a level of activation that is very strong. So transference of limits, the management of expenses. There is an adjustment of limit of the credit card. So there is a lot of products that has important results. We quadrupled the open the volume of accounts in the bank.
新產品方面,本期推出了超過20項產品,啟用程度非常強勁。因此包含額度轉移、費用管理。也有信用卡額度調整。所以有很多產品都帶來了重要成果。我們把銀行開戶量提升到了四倍。
Over 70% of the clients have three products of the bank. So we've managed this. So the checking account is relevant. And here, there are opportunities to grow in credit with the client that you knew. There is a relationship with credit card but you didn't explore a full bank with the private payer of loan or whatever. That is in the margin was decline.
超過70%的客戶持有本行三項產品。所以我們做到了這點。因此活期帳戶是關鍵。而在這裡,對於你已經熟悉的客戶,在信貸方面仍有成長機會。他們與信用卡有關係,但你尚未把他們完整開發成全方位往來銀行客戶,例如成為個人貸款的繳款人或其他。這部分使得利差出現下滑。
It's in the growth of the portfolio. It's not in the margin of services. Credit card is there of this product, of this public. And in this public that we migrated, we did the derisking and it affects negatively and we are reducing a big reduction and somebody doesn't grow. So it's a one that affects marginally this effect with the portfolio of services.
這反映在投組的成長上。不在服務利差上。信用卡在這個產品、這個客群中是存在的。而在我們遷移過來的這個客群中,我們做了去風險化,這帶來負面影響;我們正在大幅降低,因此有些部分沒有成長。所以這對服務投組的影響屬於邊際性的。
So One Itau is doing well. opportunities for growth in the individuals, it's growing very well. The transformation of this One Itau when I do an analysis of the last seven months. It's great work with solid results, quality growth, everything that we discussed in Itau day, and we've communicated has been executed in an impeccable way.
因此 One Itau 表現良好。個人端的成長機會很多,成長得非常好。當我分析過去七個月 One Itau 的轉型。這是一項很棒的工作,成果扎實、成長有品質;我們在 Itau Day 討論並對外溝通的內容,都以無可挑剔的方式被落實執行。
The results are following. So we see the profitability generating value segments that were more deficit, the difficult Itau Digital is the capacity of growing in the niches with the segments with quality, and we have to get in practice 67% of the initiatives that were marked are going to be executed until the end of the year. We should do it. And the growth should come in the subsequent years. We're very excited about the evolution of the real estate and the individual side where we had structural programs that were very relevant. We've managed to execute it very well. I'm very excited for the future.
接下來是結果。我們看到獲利能力正在為原本較為虧損的區隔創造價值;困難之處在於 Itau Digital 在利基市場、以有品質的方式擴張各區隔的能力;而且我們必須把已標記的各項倡議中67%在年底前落地執行。我們應該做到。而成長應該會在後續年度出現。我們對不動產與個人端的演進非常振奮,因為我們在那裡有非常關鍵的結構性方案。我們已經把它執行得很好。我對未來非常期待。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Carlos Gomez-Lopez, HSBC
Carlos Gomez-Lopez,匯豐(HSBC)
Carlos Gomez-Lopes - Analyst
Carlos Gomez-Lopes - Analyst
Hello, good morning. Gabriel, Milton, once again, congratulations on the results and the consistency of the results, which is (inaudible). I wanted to us about one of those things that are unchangeable in life, which is taxes. Do you differentiate yourselves not only for the higher profitability, but also for being the bank with probably the highest effective tax rate.
你好,早安。Gabriel、Milton,再次恭喜你們的業績以及業績的一致性,這是(聽不清)。我想問一個人生中幾乎不變的事情,也就是稅負。你們不僅以較高的獲利能力脫穎而出,同時也可能是有效稅率最高的銀行。
But when you think about it from the policymaker point of view, the system has probably paying less taxes today than they were before. And with the amortization of the TAs possibly even more. Are you concerned that in the next administration, there could be a pressure for the industry to pay more? And in that sense, what can you do to protect yourselves, either through [Febraban] or something else? And where could you see pressures coming for a higher accretion. Thank you.
但從政策制定者的角度來看,整個體系今天繳的稅可能比以前更少。再加上遞延所得稅資產(DTA)的攤銷,可能會更少。你們是否擔心在下一屆政府任內,產業可能面臨要求多繳稅的壓力?在這個意義上,你們能做些什麼來保護自己,例如透過 [Febraban] 或其他方式?以及你們認為提高稅負(有效稅率上升)的壓力可能從哪裡來?謝謝。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Yes. Thank you. Thank you, Carlos. I think first answer of your question is that there is a huge stock in the market of DTAs and tax credit. So the DTA and the tax credit is a tax that was paid at a certain moment or you have to deal with that when you go and you move for the coming years.
是的。謝謝。謝謝你,Carlos。我想你問題的第一個答案是:市場上有大量的遞延所得稅資產(DTA)與稅務抵免存量。因此,DTA 與稅務抵免本質上是你在某個時點已經繳過的稅,或是你在未來年度推進時必須處理的項目。
So this is relevant. I think at the end of the day, whenever a bank has a situation of tax credit, to avoid having losses in the tax credit that will reduce from your capital base. The first thing that a bank should do is to avoid doing operations that reduce our tax base. So this is one thing.
所以這點很重要。我認為歸根結底,當一家銀行處於稅務抵免的狀況時,為了避免稅務抵免產生損失、進而從資本基礎中扣減,銀行首先應該做的是避免進行會降低我們課稅基礎的操作。這是第一點。
The second one is to reduce the IOC. So you are not obliged to do 100% of the ICO, you can do up to, but you need to have a positive tax situation to make it happen. So I believe banks will need in a certain moment, to adjust IOC.
第二點是降低 IOC。你不必做滿100%的 ICO,你可以做到上限以內,但你需要有正向的稅務狀況才能讓它發生。因此我相信銀行在某個時點需要調整 IOC。
The third one is the payout. So I think banks have the capability to reduce payout as well to retain more capital if for any reason they will face difficult with the tax credit. But the IOC is there. I don't see any discussion about it. It's not only for banks, but it's for the whole industry. It's true that our system, our industry retains a huge amount of capital in the balance sheet.
第三點是股利發放率(payout)。我認為銀行也有能力降低股利發放率,以保留更多資本;如果因為任何原因在稅務抵免上遇到困難。但 IOC 仍然存在。我沒有看到任何關於它的討論。這不只是銀行的議題,而是整個產業的議題。確實,我們的體系、我們的產業在資產負債表上保留了大量資本。
And why is that? Because it's regulated activity. So the Central Bank requires that for you to make the credit and to have a portfolio the size we have, you need to retain capital. And this capital that you retain at the end of the day has the benefit of IOC, but you have, on the other hand, a very high level of tax, corporate tax rate for banks in Brazil, which is 45%, and there is an increase for financial companies in the consumer finance and also for IPs in the recent years. So I think there is no risk of this discussion because it has to do with the level of capital, and I think banks at a certain point they will have to reduce the IOC.
為什麼會這樣?因為這是受監管的活動。因此中央銀行要求:為了放款並持有我們這樣規模的投組,你需要保留資本。而你保留的這些資本,最終享有 IOC 的好處;但另一方面,在巴西,銀行的公司稅率非常高,達45%;而且近年來對消費金融的金融公司以及對 IPs 也有所提高。所以我認為這個議題沒有風險,因為它與資本水準有關;而我認為銀行在某個時間點將不得不降低 IOC。
It's not our base case. We don't have any issue with that. But I think the market might need to reduce IOC in order to avoid having losses in their tax credit that will reduce capital. I think this is something that we might see, and this will necessarily increase their effective rate.
這不是我們的基本情境。我們在這方面沒有任何問題。但我認為市場可能需要降低 IOC,以避免其稅務抵免出現損失、進而減少資本。我認為這是我們可能會看到的情況,而這必然會提高他們的有效稅率。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Eduardo Nishio.
Eduardo Nishio。
Unidentified Participant
Unidentified Participant
Good morning. I have a question that is for the efficiency level. I wanted to hear from you. From your standpoint of cost and revenues, if the number of employees is dropping very high, 5.5% in the year. And in the branches, we have a drop of 90%.
早安。我有一個關於效率水準的問題。我想聽聽你們的看法。從成本與收入的角度來看,如果員工人數在一年內大幅下降了5.5%。而在分行方面,我們看到下降了90%。
So I need to know until when this process? Where are you in this state of making your footprint adequate? Do you see more space for reduction? And in the part of revenues, which is difficult to make it tangible the Super app. If you can share with us a few numbers of cross-selling. Do you have those numbers to tell us and the launching of the GenAI with a Super app? What is the proposal you expect from this launch?
所以我想了解這個流程會持續到什麼時候?在調整你們的據點布局(footprint)使其更適當這件事上,你們目前處於什麼階段?你們還看到進一步縮減的空間嗎?另外在收入端,Super app 很難把它具體量化。如果可以的話,請分享一些交叉銷售的數字。你們是否有這些數字可以告訴我們?以及在 Super app 上推出 GenAI 的部分。你們對這次推出預期的價值主張是什麼?
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
About the first part of your question, when we look at the number of branches, we always do a review of the footprint from the client number. So demand by the branches is dropping. The flow is for what it was epidemic. The bank (inaudible) there is a digitalization and we are always reviewing our business model. Our value proposition sees how we're going to service the claim.
關於你問題的第一部分,當我們看分行數量時,我們一向會從客戶數量的角度檢視我們的據點覆蓋。因此,分行端的需求正在下降。這個流量是因為疫情時期的情況。銀行(聽不清)正在推動數位化,我們也一直在檢視我們的商業模式。我們的價值主張在於我們將如何為客戶提供服務並處理需求。
What is digital ways all what is in the digital branch, what is in our remote what is the federal? That is part of the process. We don't give guidance on the amount of branches or head count. Naturally, the turnover -- natural turnover at the bank as we understand that we can absorb, being more efficient and at the same time, adjusting the value proposition and the business model.
哪些是數位方式、哪些在數位分行、哪些在我們的遠端、哪些是聯邦(聽不清)?這是流程的一部分。我們不會就分行數量或人員編制給出指引。自然地,銀行的人員流動——我們理解的自然流失——在我們能夠吸收的範圍內,讓我們更有效率,同時也調整價值主張與商業模式。
For the clients, we're going in the first month we did a review. But we have a review of the proposal of the value and all of that is being discussed. So we have a commitment with the client in the business model. And we have to adjust it as necessary. So this is what we are trying to do generating the minimum fracture and with the most care.
就客戶而言,我們在第一個月做了檢視。但我們也在檢視價值主張的提案,而這些都在討論中。因此,在商業模式上我們對客戶有承諾。我們必須在必要時進行調整。所以我們正在努力把衝擊降到最低,並以最大的謹慎來進行。
About efficienc, we talked about the Super app. The migrated clients, BRL50 million are migrated into the process in. We have 70% of the clients with 50% of the products and the opening of the volume of accounts is gigantic, which shows our capacity of delivering value depending on the profile of the clients. So there is a one size saw the benefit of integration is not only for the migrated clients but for the shareholders because the dedicated apps, we are, we have a better experience than the Super app.
關於效率,我們談到了 Super app。已遷移的客戶,有 5,000 萬巴西雷亞爾(BRL50 million)已納入遷移流程中。我們有 70% 的客戶持有 50% 的產品,而開戶量的成長非常巨大,這顯示我們能依據客戶輪廓提供價值的能力。因此並不是一體適用;整合的好處不僅對已遷移的客戶,也對股東有利,因為相較於 Super app,我們的專用 App(獨立 App)體驗更好。
So when we integrated, we have, when they are in a Super app, they have a hub of credit cards that is much better than what we have before. So now these clients are part of our ecosystem. They are part of the life cycle. They are part of allowing the client to understand the full bank and it's not mono bank, and we have solutions and for the client as they have needs, so that this growth is done, obviously, naturally. We're very excited with the results and certainly an important growth of the individuals servicing these clients better.
因此當我們整合後,當他們在 Super app 裡時,他們會有一個信用卡中樞(hub),比我們以前的更好。所以現在這些客戶成為我們生態系的一部分。他們是生命週期的一部分。他們也讓客戶能理解整個銀行,而不是單一銀行(mono bank);我們會依客戶需求提供解決方案,讓成長當然是自然發生的。我們對結果非常振奮,毫無疑問,個人客戶端的成長很重要,因為我們能更好地服務這些客戶。
So first, we did the foundation of creating guardrails, foundation of how we're doing the artificial intelligence to interact with the clients. We have a responsibility and the institution, we cannot have the model with the -- without the protections.
首先,我們打下基礎,建立護欄(guardrails),也就是我們如何運用人工智慧與客戶互動的基礎。我們有責任;作為一家機構,我們不能在沒有保護措施的情況下運行模型。
We have scalable models at the right price. And how can we take the results of the client in their own benefit. We have to individualize the experience, and we can do that having the, taking into consideration the DNA of the client. And here with the degree of privacy that the client wants, without having the knowledge basis, well, to find we have the instructions and our policies in our culture, the [DNA]has the culture of the banks. And they need to have clear guardrails.
我們有可擴展、且成本合理的模型。以及我們如何把成果回饋到客戶自身的利益。我們必須把體驗個人化,而我們可以透過考量客戶的 DNA 來做到。在此同時,依客戶想要的隱私程度,在沒有(聽不清)知識基礎的情況下——我們有指引、政策與文化;這個 [DNA] 也承載銀行的文化。而且必須有清楚的護欄。
So how do we train these models so they can understand the clients and all the relationship with the bank. So AI without having a full bank in the past is not so in the back. It's not simple. You're not a one-off shop, and you cannot make decisions making the hole, you give partial recommendations and not the best ones.
那麼我們要如何訓練這些模型,讓它們能理解客戶以及與銀行的整體關係。因此,如果 AI 沒有過去完整銀行的資料背景,就不太行得通。這並不簡單。你不是一次性商店(one-off shop),你也不能在資訊有缺口的情況下做決策;你只能給出部分建議,而不是最好的建議。
Two, you don't have the records of data we have. In segments and we were always relevant investment credit and so on. So that facilitates the understanding of the client in the cycle that they are. If they have assessment with the -- we have -- when can we offer? What should we offer until we get to the transaction.
第二,你沒有我們擁有的資料紀錄。在各個分群中,我們一直在投資於相關性、授信等。因此這有助於理解客戶所處的週期階段。如果他們有評估(assessment)——我們有——我們何時可以提供?在走到交易之前,我們應該提供什麼?
So you can have a transaction without involving the human. And that will clarify not only the doubt. It's AI for our labor employees because it releases time and sometimes the commercial teams, they have to answer a simpler question, the model is going to do that. It facilitates so that the people have three more times contact than before it has efficiency in the amount of clients in the load of the teams, how many clients they have to service and it improves the experience because you have a first call resolution that is much better as the doubts are clarified.
因此你可以在不需要人工介入的情況下完成一筆交易。而這不僅能釐清疑問。這也是給我們員工的 AI,因為它能釋放時間;有時商業團隊必須回答較簡單的問題,模型會去做。它讓人員與客戶的接觸次數比以前多三倍;在效率上,體現在每個團隊要服務的客戶量、團隊負載等;同時也改善體驗,因為首次來電解決率(first call resolution)更好,疑問能被釐清。
So we're very excited first bank to launch this with this level of completeness and this amount of data and the models will grow with the clients. We're very excited about the evolution and the command of the artificial intelligence, AI, it's a good position, and we are positioned and saying that AI was always present at a bank and the brand itself. So now we're going to grow with the client. It's going to be a game changer in the experience. And it takes the organization for a strategy that is AI first, which is very relevant for the future.
因此我們非常振奮,作為第一家銀行以這樣的完整度、這樣的資料量推出;而模型也會隨著客戶一起成長。我們對 AI(人工智慧)的演進與掌握非常期待;我們處在一個很好的位置,也一直強調 AI 在銀行一直都存在,甚至在品牌本身就有。所以現在我們會與客戶一起成長。這將改變體驗的遊戲規則。也會把組織帶向「AI 優先」的策略,這對未來非常重要。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Henrique Navarro, Santander.
Henrique Navarro,Santander。
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
Henrique Navarro - Analyst
Thank you. Congratulations on the results. So the market has changed a lot. It's not normal to see Itau a decision guidance. And the question is the new guidance, given the breadth of the guidance somehow reflects this estimation for 2026. But in the quickly the world is changing. What are the lines that are weaker in the guidance, if there is a mistake an expectation of review, what are the lines that should be more at risk.
謝謝。恭喜你們的業績表現。市場變化很大。看到 Itaú 做出指引(guidance)並不常見。我的問題是:新的指引,考量其涵蓋範圍,是否在某種程度上反映了你們對 2026 年的估計。但世界變化很快。在這份指引中,哪些項目相對較脆弱?如果有偏差、需要修正預期,哪些項目風險更高?
And looking at '27, maybe you would agree that the changes that are necessary. In January of this year, the sell side and the banks, we had an expectation of a good recovery of the cycle of credit. And as things are happening, it's not going to work out. So I wanted to hear if we should look at 2027 with the growth of credit that is softer, and we just have to push these banking fees that is weaker for 2027. So giving us some color at the end of 2026, 2027.
再看 2027 年,也許你會同意需要一些必要的調整。今年 1 月,賣方與銀行端原本預期信貸週期會有良好復甦。但照目前的發展,看起來不會如預期。所以我想聽聽,我們是否應該用較溫和的信貸成長來看待 2027 年,並且對 2027 年較弱的銀行手續費收入(banking fees)需要更用力推動。也請你們提供一些 2026 年底到 2027 年的看法。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Henrique, and thank you for the comments. Last question, but a lot of energy. When we look at the range, it tends to capture well what we imagine for the year. We have a guidance, we imagine that we are not going to need to review it, but we are pragmatic to review it whenever we have a better performance in the market.
謝謝你,Henrique,也謝謝你的評論。最後一個問題,但很有能量。當我們看這個區間(range)時,它通常能很好地涵蓋我們對全年情境的想像。我們給出指引,我們認為不需要去修正它,但如果市場表現更好,我們也會務實地在需要時進行調整。
This is a good practice for transparency, so we can get to the number that we want. We don't give geographies or a point because it wouldn't be a point, it's a range. The new share credit portfolio it will grow reasonably, and we have [0.6] in the portfolio. It's on the basis of the last year.
這是一種透明度上的良好做法,讓我們能達到我們想要的數字。我們不提供地理拆分或單一點位,因為那不是一個點,而是一個區間。新的(聽不清)信貸投組將會以合理的速度成長,而我們在投組中有 [0.6]。這是以去年為基礎。
And we have a selling of the portfolio that was done at the end of the day BRL10 billion that are automatic, but again, the portfolio works very well. Margin with the client. If we annualize what we have in the first semester is a challenge that we have for the next two quarters, certainly.
而且我們在當天收盤時進行了投資組合的出售,金額為巴西雷亞爾100億,這些是自動執行的,但再次強調,該投資組合運作得非常好。與客戶的利差。如果將上半年我們所呈現的情況年化,這將是我們接下來兩個季度確實要面對的挑戰。
Today, we are running close to the floor than the midterm, the midpoint because of the effects that I commented with the liabilities that are very solid. So it grows with the structured operations that has volatility and it might be a difference in the next quarter and the working capital that is very stable and growing, but it shouldn't grow at a very relevant way.
今天,由於我提到的負債端非常穩健所帶來的影響,我們的表現更接近區間下限,而不是中期、中點。因此,它會隨著具有波動性的結構性操作而成長,這可能會在下一季度帶來差異;而營運資金則非常穩定且在成長,但不應以非常顯著的方式成長。
And the margin of assets is growing. I'm not concerned. But the margin delivers. The cost of credit, you discussed. I wanted to tell you that a bit to the left a bit to the right, our best expectation is should be closer than to the midpoint of the guidance. So even though if we have these questions, oh, it's worsening at the margin, maybe there is something implicit.
資產端利差正在成長。我不擔心。但利差會反映出來。信貸成本你們已經討論過。我想告訴你們的是,無論略偏左或略偏右,我們最佳的預期是會更接近指引的中點。所以即使我們有這些疑問——哦,利差端在惡化——也許其中隱含了某些因素。
What we've seen in the wholesale that is more challenging in terms of credit, but we've done the provisions. And the message that I wanted to make it very clear to you is that, first, we do the provisions and then we discuss the profit.
我們在批發端看到的情況,在信貸方面更具挑戰,但我們已經做了提列。而我想非常清楚傳達給你們的訊息是:第一,我們先做提列,然後才討論獲利。
It's not from the profit to the provision. So if we had to come through a quarter that has a worse result because the provisions were worse. And I will explain the reasons and we will explain this. So the discipline of having the provision balance, we don't forego. The balance has to be well provisioned and we're not going to be under provision, either in individuals or the retail or the wholesale. We're always going to have the discipline of doing the provisions.
不是從獲利去推回提列。所以如果我們遇到某個季度結果較差,是因為提列變得更差。我會解釋原因,我們也會說明這點。因此,維持備抵提列水準的紀律,我們不會放棄。資產負債表必須有充足的提列,我們不會在個金、零售或批發端出現提列不足。我們始終會保持提列的紀律。
Having said that, our best expectation is to close at the midpoint, close to the midpoint of the cost of credit. And the revenue of insurance, we did the adjustments. You see the results. We have a solid agenda as we've seen the level of mobilization high and the cost is very close to the bottom. When we see the geographies, we have the full year forecast.
話雖如此,我們最佳的預期是信貸成本將收在中點、接近中點。至於保險收入,我們已做了調整。你們可以看到結果。我們有一個穩健的推進計畫,如同我們所見,動員程度很高,而成本非常接近下限。當我們看各地區時,我們有全年的預測。
All of that is giving me a level of bottom line. Bottom line is in line with the guidance, previous guidance. But to the left a bit to the right, but I believe that the bottom line implicit one if it had a variation, it's very small. So this is what we are seeing. For 2027, very early to say because, once again, this scenario is very dynamic.
所有這些都讓我對最終淨利水準有一定把握。最終淨利與指引一致、與先前指引一致。但無論略偏左或略偏右,我認為隱含的最終淨利若有變動,幅度也非常小。這就是我們所看到的。至於2027年,現在說還太早,因為再次強調,這個情境非常動態。
So we're going to start now with the discussion, we see the -- we do the discussions, but we are going to have a good budget for 2027 with a big -- we have the discipline of execution, and we're going to execute the best that we can, so we can share with you.
因此我們現在會開始進行討論,我們看到——我們會進行討論,但我們將為2027年做出一個良好的預算,並且有一個很大的——我們有執行的紀律,我們會盡我們所能把它執行到最好,之後再與各位分享。
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Gustavo Rodrigues - Investor Relations Officer
Thank you, Milton. Thank you, Gabriel. Thank you, everyone, that took part on our earnings calls. Now we close the Q&A session and our second quarter earnings call.
謝謝你,Milton。謝謝你,Gabriel。謝謝所有參與我們法說會的各位。現在我們結束問答環節以及我們的第二季法說會。
Now I'll give the floor to Milton.
現在我把時間交給Milton。
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Milton Maluhy Filho - Chief Executive Officer, Member of the Executive Committee
Thank you, Gustavo. Thank you, Gabriel. Thank you very much for your participation, and we really like this relationship with the investors and with all the states in. We try to open as much as we can. The information with a higher level of transparency, predictability for any direction if we have to adjust below, we have to just below if it's up, well, we try to avoid surprises.
謝謝你,Gustavo。謝謝你,Gabriel。非常感謝各位的參與,我們也非常喜歡與投資人以及所有相關方之間的這種關係。我們盡可能保持開放。以更高程度的透明度與可預測性提供資訊;無論任何方向,如果需要向下調整,我們就向下調整;如果是向上,我們也同樣處理——總之我們努力避免意外。
Solid quarter in a very challenging scenario, delivering the results that we've delivered with the level of profitability and efficiency level and transformation of the bank with credit indicators and the quality level that we delivered, it's not simple.
在非常具挑戰的情境下,這是一個穩健的季度;以我們所交付的獲利能力與效率水準,以及銀行轉型、信貸指標與我們交付的資產品質水準而言,這並不容易。
Really, this is the work of everyone mobilization level and a lot of capacity, not only the competency of the teams for the capacity of navigating the scenario and what brings us this scenario is the discipline of capital allocation ratio, creation of value and long-term view. Discipline is key. Thank you very much. We'll see you briefly in other opportunities and for the (inaudible) that are watching us. The result is for -- made by everyone. Thank you, and we'll see you soon.
確實,這是所有人高動員程度與大量能力的成果,不僅是團隊的專業能力,也包括在此情境下航行前進的能力;而這個情境帶給我們的,是資本配置比率的紀律、價值創造與長期視角。紀律是關鍵。非常感謝。我們很快會在其他場合再見,也感謝(聽不清)正在收看我們的各位。這個成果是——由大家共同完成。謝謝,我們很快再見。
Editor
Editor
Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call. The interpreter was provided by the company sponsoring this event.
本逐字稿中的英文陳述由現場電話會議的口譯員口譯。該口譯員由主辦本活動的公司提供。