International Paper Co (IP) 2026 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Paper's first-quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，感謝各位撥冗等候。歡迎參加國際紙業（International Paper）2026 年第一季財報電話會議。（接線員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mandi Gilliland, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很榮幸將電話會議交給投資人關係資深總監 Mandi Gilliland。女士，請開始。

Good morning, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining International Paper's first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. There is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

早安、午安。感謝各位參加國際紙業 2026 年第一季財報電話會議。今天上午的講者為董事長暨執行長 Andy Silvernail，以及資深副總裁暨財務長 Lance Loeffler。我們簡報開頭包含重要資訊，包括若干法律聲明。例如，在本次電話會議中，我們將作出前瞻性陳述，該等陳述受風險與不確定性影響。

These and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

這些以及其他可能導致或促使實際結果與該等前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素，可見於我們的新聞稿以及向美國證券交易委員會（SEC）提交的報告。

We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to US GAAP financial measures is available on our website. Our website also contains copies of the first quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides.

我們也將呈現若干非美國通用會計準則（non-US GAAP）財務資訊。上述數據與美國通用會計準則（US GAAP）財務衡量指標之調節表可於我們網站取得。我們網站亦提供第一季財報新聞稿與今日簡報投影片的副本。

So now, let me turn it over to Andy Silvernail.

那麼，現在我把時間交給 Andy Silvernail。

Thanks, Mandi. Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Let's begin on slide 3. This quarter reinforced the importance of controlling the controllables in a dynamic operating environment. While inflationary pressures and weather-related disruptions created volatility, our focus remains squarely on enabling our strategy and improving execution.

謝謝你，Mandi。各位早安、午安。我們從第 3 張投影片開始。本季再次凸顯在動態營運環境中「掌控可控因素」的重要性。儘管通膨壓力與天候相關的干擾造成波動，我們的重點仍明確聚焦於推動策略落地並提升執行力。

Today, we outlined the steps we're taking to manage external pressures strengthen execution across the business and address gaps where performance did not meet expectations, all in support of driving sustainable long-term value at International Paper.

今天，我們說明了正在採取的步驟：管理外部壓力、強化全公司執行力，並針對未達預期的績效缺口加以改善，所有作為皆是為了在國際紙業推動可持續的長期價值。

I want to start by being clear about what's working and what needs to improve. In North America, we delivered above-market growth for the third straight quarter with box shipments exceeding the industry by 3% as planned customer wins came through. We're seeing mill and box plant productivity improve as strategic investments and lighthouse practices take hold, and we're strengthening our footprint through investments that support long-term profitable growth

我想先清楚說明哪些做得好、哪些需要改善。在北美，我們連續第三季實現高於市場的成長；在既定計畫的客戶贏單落地後，我們的箱板紙箱出貨量較產業高出 3%。隨著策略性投資與「燈塔」最佳實務逐步落地，我們看到紙廠與紙箱廠的生產力正在改善；同時，我們也透過支持長期獲利成長的投資來強化我們的據點布局。

We are executing important improvements, but the gains have not been fast enough or consistent enough to offset the macro pressures. North American mill reliability has inflected positively. However, we need to accelerate the momentum. We have more work to do to reach best-in-class reliability and that's essential to delivering the cost and service performance we expect.

我們正在推動重要改善，但進展速度與一致性仍不足以抵銷總體環境壓力。北美紙廠的可靠度已出現正向拐點。然而，我們需要加速這股動能。要達到同業最佳的可靠度，我們仍有更多工作要做，而這對於達成我們期望的成本與服務表現至關重要。

We also need to improve execution. Unplanned costs have been higher than expected driven by both transformation activity and external factors. While some level of transition cost is inherent as we reshape the footprint and execute our transformation, we need to do a better job of identifying how to mitigate impacts and reliably overcome shortfalls.

我們也需要提升執行力。由於轉型活動與外部因素的共同影響，非計畫性成本高於預期。在我們重塑據點布局並推動轉型的過程中，某種程度的過渡成本在所難免，但我們需要更有效地辨識如何降低影響，並可靠地彌補不足之處。

Let's turn to EMEA. We've made progress on cost-out actions with footprint and overhead efficiencies flowing through the P&L. The conflict in the Middle East has increased the overall challenge across both regions with more energy exposure in EMEA. We're doing a very good job of managing the exposures and pulling forward costs as quickly as possible. Importantly, we stayed focused on the broad improvement work while a small core team executes the separation.

接著看 EMEA（歐洲、中東與非洲）。我們在降本行動上已取得進展，據點布局與管理費用效率的改善已反映在損益表中。中東衝突提高了兩個區域的整體挑戰，且 EMEA 的能源曝險更高。我們在管理這些曝險方面做得很好，並盡可能快速地提前落實降本。重要的是，在一小組核心團隊執行分拆的同時，我們仍持續聚焦於更廣泛的改善工作。

The EMEA market has been softer than expected with the macro environment impacting demand. We have modestly underperformed the market in terms of volume as we have held pricing. Our focus is maximizing total value by balancing the price-volume trade-offs in the soft market. We have, however, sharpened our commercial focus, and we want to make sure that we have the right price value trade-offs to maximize that profitability. In parallel, we are pushing hard on the transformation costs that are already underway, and we are focusing on execution and accelerating progress in a very challenging operating environment.

EMEA 市場疲弱程度超出預期，總體環境影響需求。由於我們維持價格，在銷量方面略微落後於市場。我們的重點是在疲弱市場中平衡價格與銷量的取捨，以最大化整體價值。不過，我們已強化商務端的聚焦，並希望確保採取正確的價格—價值取捨，以最大化獲利能力。同時，我們也正大力推進已在進行中的轉型成本改善，並在極具挑戰的營運環境中聚焦執行、加速進展。

We've made important progress in both North America and EMEA, aggressively reshaping our portfolio, footprint and operating structure. These changes have allowed us to radically change and improve investments in asset quality, reliability and cost structure. In turn, we've improved our competitive position, grown in North America, and positioned ourselves for further profit improvement in the back half of the year and beyond.

我們在北美與 EMEA 皆取得重要進展，積極重塑我們的產品組合、據點布局與營運架構。這些變革使我們得以大幅調整並改善在資產品質、可靠度與成本結構上的投資。因此，我們提升了競爭地位、在北美實現成長，並為今年下半年及更長期的進一步獲利改善奠定基礎。

I'm now turning to slide 4. Let's take a look at the areas where our actions are translating into results. In North America, our team outpaced the market on volume growth for the third consecutive quarter. Even with the challenging backdrop, North American box volumes in the first quarter increased 2.5% year over year on a per day basis compared to a decline of 0.3% for the overall industry, which translates to nearly a 3% outperformance of the market.

我現在轉到第 4 張投影片。我們來看看哪些領域的行動已轉化為成果。在北美，我們的團隊連續第三季在銷量成長上超越市場。即使在充滿挑戰的背景下，北美第一季紙箱銷量（按每日口徑）年增 2.5%，而整體產業則年減 0.3%，相當於幾乎高出市場 3% 的表現。

Looking ahead to the second quarter, we expect our North American volumes to be up about 3% with the industry again tracking flat. And on a full year basis, we continue to expect to outperform the industry by about 2%. Lastly, due to macro trends, our full year 2026 industry demand outlook is now approximately flat year-over-year compared to prior assumptions of flat to up 1%.

展望第二季，我們預期北美銷量約成長 3%，而產業仍大致持平。以全年來看，我們仍預期將較產業高出約 2%。最後，受總體趨勢影響，我們對 2026 年全年產業需求的展望目前約為年增持平，先前假設為持平至成長 1%。

I'm now moving to slide 5. This page shows how our performance in North America is being supported by underlying improvements across the mill and box system. In the mill system, we're making steady operational progress. The winter storm impacted operational performance in late January and early February, but we saw strong improvements through March and momentum continuing into April. More broadly, capacity utilization has improved meaningfully over time, supported by elevated capital investment that's reversing a decade of underinvestment and improving reliability across the system. These gains are also reinforced by better operating discipline as lighthouse practices are rolled out across the mill system.

我現在移到第 5 張投影片。本頁顯示我們在北美的表現如何受到紙廠與紙箱系統底層改善的支撐。在紙廠系統方面，我們正穩步推進營運改善。冬季風暴在 1 月下旬與 2 月上旬影響了營運表現，但我們在 3 月看到顯著改善，且動能延續至 4 月。更廣泛而言，產能利用率隨時間顯著提升，這得益於較高的資本投資，正扭轉過去十年的投資不足，並提升整個系統的可靠度。隨著「燈塔」最佳實務在紙廠系統推廣，更佳的營運紀律也進一步鞏固了這些成果。

On the box side, performance is improving as those same lighthouse practices take hold, particularly volume optimization and stronger daily management. As a result, box productivity has improved 7% since the third quarter of 2024 as we have continued to rationalize the footprint. Taken together, these actions strengthen our advantaged cost position by simplifying operations, moving volume to our most advantaged assets and putting capital to work where it earns the highest return. The key takeaway is that these are real measurable improvements from actions already underway. And on the next slide, we'll show how continued targeted investment is expected to build momentum and further strengthen our mill and box system over time.

在紙箱端，隨著相同的「燈塔」最佳實務落地，績效正在改善，尤其是在銷量最佳化與更強的日常管理方面。因此，自 2024 年第三季以來，隨著我們持續合理化據點布局，紙箱生產力已提升 7%。綜合而言，這些行動透過簡化營運、將銷量移轉至我們最具優勢的資產，並把資本投入於回報最高之處，強化了我們具優勢的成本地位。關鍵重點是：這些都是來自已在進行中的行動所帶來、真實且可衡量的改善。在下一張投影片中，我們將說明持續的精準投資預期如何建立動能，並隨時間進一步強化我們的紙廠與紙箱系統。

I'm now turning to slide 6, building on the productivity improvements and early operating results we just discussed, this slide highlights key strategic investments we're making across North America aligned with our strategic priorities of superior customer experience and high relative supply position. We've meaningfully accelerated investment across our network.

我現在轉到第 6 張投影片。在我們剛討論的生產力改善與初期營運成果基礎上，本頁重點呈現我們在北美所進行、與策略優先事項一致的關鍵策略性投資；這些優先事項包括卓越的客戶體驗與相對較高的供應地位。我們已大幅加速在整體網路的投資。

These include targeted acquisitions, greenfield facilities, strategic conversions and more than 80 major investments across mill and box system, including corrugators, converting equipment and specialty capabilities with projects underway or planned primarily from late 2025 through 2026 spanning the US and Mexico. Collectively, these investments will improve reliability, modernize our asset base and strengthen our competitive position to win with customers.

這些投資包括精準併購、綠地新建設施、策略性轉換，以及紙廠與紙箱系統超過 80 項重大投資，涵蓋瓦楞機、加工設備與特殊能力；相關專案主要於 2025 年末至 2026 年在美國與墨西哥展開或規劃中。整體而言，這些投資將提升可靠度、使我們的資產基礎現代化，並強化我們的競爭地位，以贏得客戶。

We also recognize we are temporarily [short paper] in North America ahead of the Riverdale conversion. While that conversion creates a near-term headwind, there is a clear long-term tailwind, improving our system mix, expanding lightweight capacity and generating attractive returns as the project comes online. Overall, we are investing approximately 50% more per facility in 2025 through 2027 than the average of the prior 3 years. This level of investment reflects a deliberate shift toward rebuilding reliability, upgrading capabilities, and positioning the system for sustained performance and long-term value creation.

我們也認知到，在 Riverdale 轉換完成之前，我們在北美暫時處於[短紙]狀態。雖然該轉換在短期內帶來逆風，但長期而言有明確的順風效應，可改善我們的系統產品組合、擴增輕量化產能，並在專案上線後帶來具吸引力的報酬。整體而言，2025 至 2027 年我們每座設施的投資金額，約較前 3 年平均水準高出 50%。此投資水準反映我們有意識地轉向重建可靠性、升級能力，並使系統具備持續表現與長期價值創造的定位。

Moving to slide 7, we recently announced a bolt-on acquisition that fits squarely with our strategy, the NORPAC paper mill in Longview, Washington. This is a high-quality, top quartile asset that strengthens our West Coast footprint, which builds on our Springfield mill and box plant network across the region and lowers our overall systems cost. This location creates meaningful freight advantages in West Coast markets and its capabilities improve the efficiency and competitiveness of our integrated network.

來到第 7 張投影片，我們近期宣布一項與策略高度契合的附加型收購案：位於華盛頓州朗維尤（Longview）的 NORPAC 紙廠。這是一項高品質、位居前四分位的資產，可強化我們在美國西岸的布局；此布局建立在我們的 Springfield 紙廠以及區域內的紙箱廠網路之上，並降低我們整體系統成本。該地點在西岸市場帶來顯著的運輸優勢，其能力也提升我們整合式網路的效率與競爭力。

The mill includes three paper machines, two of which are producing recycled lightweight containerboard, enhancing our ability to meet growing customer demand for lightweight solutions and higher recycled content. Just as important, this acquisition gives us strategic flexibility, supporting growth in attractive end markets, while creating opportunities for further cost optimization across the system.

該紙廠包含三台造紙機，其中兩台生產再生輕量化箱板紙，強化我們滿足客戶對輕量化解決方案與更高再生含量需求成長的能力。同樣重要的是，這項收購賦予我們策略彈性，支持在具吸引力的終端市場成長，同時創造在整個系統進一步優化成本的機會。

Post integration, we expect this investment to deliver high teens or better returns over time, consistent with our disciplined capital allocation approach. Overall, this is exactly the kind of targeted, value-accretive investment we're looking for as we continue to optimize our footprint and build long-term value.

在完成整合後，我們預期此投資隨時間推進可帶來約十幾％（high teens）或更高的報酬率，符合我們嚴謹的資本配置方法。整體而言，這正是我們在持續優化據點布局並打造長期價值時所尋求的那種精準、具增值性的投資。

Turning to Slide 8 and our EMEA business. As we saw in North America, the first step in our transformation is to simplify. Here's what it looks like in EMEA, starting with footprint optimization across the region. The data here reflects the actions that we have completed as well as many still in process. We also believe there are additional opportunities to optimize our footprint with additional actions being proposed or evaluated.

接著看第 8 張投影片與我們的 EMEA 業務。如同我們在北美所見，轉型的第一步是簡化。以下是在 EMEA 的樣貌，從全區域的據點布局優化開始。此處數據反映我們已完成的行動，以及許多仍在進行中的行動。我們也相信仍有進一步優化據點布局的機會，並正提出或評估更多行動。

When we shared this slide last quarter, we had approximately $160 million of run rate cost savings. Since then, we've continued to make progress, increasing run rate savings by roughly $40 million to more than $200 million in total. To date, 31 closures have been completed or are in process, which will result in net reductions of more than 2,800 positions. We'll continue to provide updates as we advance our actions in a disciplined and respectful way.

上季分享這張投影片時，我們的年度化（run rate）成本節省約為 1.6 億美元。此後我們持續取得進展，將年度化節省再增加約 4,000 萬美元，使總額超過 2 億美元。截至目前，已完成或正在進行中的關閉據點共 31 處，將使淨減少超過 2,800 個職位。我們將在以嚴謹且尊重的方式推進行動的同時，持續提供最新進度。

I'm now turning to slide 9. Before getting into the results and outlook, I want to step back and frame the macro environment that is influencing near-term results across both regions, particularly in the second quarter, starting with demand.

我現在轉到第 9 張投影片。在進入結果與展望之前，我想先退一步，說明影響兩個區域短期表現（特別是第二季）的總體環境，先從需求談起。

In both North America and EMEA, overall market demand is softer than we expected coming into the year by about 1 point. This reflects a more cautious consumer, particularly as inflation pressures and uncertainty persist. We have not seen abrupt changes in order patterns in either region, but I'm cautious about demand. Visibility beyond the near term is limited. So we're staying focused on what we can control, strengthening the competitiveness of our network, onboarding commercial wins, investing in our assets and executing on cost-out.

在北美與 EMEA，整體市場需求較我們年初預期疲弱約 1 個百分點。這反映消費者更為謹慎，尤其在通膨壓力與不確定性持續之際。我們在兩個區域都未看到訂單型態出現突然變化，但我對需求仍保持審慎。對於短期以外的能見度有限。因此我們持續聚焦於可控事項：強化網路競爭力、導入商務端的勝利（onboarding commercial wins）、投資資產並執行降本（cost-out）。

As we look at energy, in North America, energy cost exposure remains relatively contained as our mills generate more than 70% of their own energy and our principal energy input is natural gas, which is stable now and in the futures market. In Europe, our business has an effective hedging strategy in place to help mitigate the impact of higher energy prices. The exposure is significant, but our strategy should allow inflation pressure to be offset commercially, assuming recent market price increases stick.

再看能源方面，在北美，我們的能源成本曝險仍相對可控，因為我們的紙廠自發電量超過 70%，且主要能源投入為天然氣；目前現貨與期貨市場都相對穩定。在歐洲，我們的業務已採取有效的避險策略，以協助緩解較高能源價格的影響。曝險程度顯著，但若近期市場價格上調能夠維持，我們的策略應可在商業端抵銷通膨壓力。

Now I'm turning to freight. Freight is having a significant near-term impact across both regions. In North America, sharply higher and volatile diesel prices are putting pressure on costs across the supply chain. Combined with an exceptionally tight freight market, this remains a strong headwind. As a reminder, rising freight costs are not passed through directly, they're recovered through pricing over time.

接著談運輸。運輸在兩個區域都對短期造成顯著影響。在北美，柴油價格大幅上升且波動，對整個供應鏈成本造成壓力。再加上運輸市場異常緊俏，這仍是一股強勁逆風。提醒一下，運輸成本上升不會直接轉嫁，而是會隨時間透過定價回收。

And other impacts, in North America, higher diesel prices are also flowing through to OCC and chemicals, reflecting increased transportation costs and oil-linked inputs. In EMEA, OCC prices remain relatively stable given supply availability, but we do expect higher collection and distribution costs to begin showing up as we move into the second quarter.

其他影響方面，在北美，柴油價格上升也傳導至 OCC 與化學品，反映運輸成本增加以及與油價連動的投入成本。在 EMEA，OCC 價格因供給可得性而維持相對穩定，但我們確實預期，隨著進入第二季，更高的收集與配送成本將開始反映出來。

I'm on slide 10. Now, turning to our enterprise results for the first quarter. Overall performance reflects a challenging operating environment, normal seasonal volume declines and several deliberate actions we've taken to strengthen the business long term.

我在第 10 張投影片。現在來看我們第一季的企業整體業績。整體表現反映具挑戰的營運環境、正常的季節性出貨量下滑，以及我們為強化長期體質而採取的數項刻意行動。

On sales, year-over-year growth primarily reflects the additional month of DS Smith in Packaging Solutions EMEA. Sequentially, revenue step-down is expected due to normal seasonality across end markets. In Packaging Solutions North America, sales are also impacted by our decision to exit nonstrategic export business following the Savannah shutdown.

在營收方面，年增主要反映 Packaging Solutions EMEA 納入 DS Smith 的額外一個月。就季比而言，預期營收下滑，原因是終端市場的正常季節性因素。在 Packaging Solutions North America，營收也受到我們在 Savannah 關閉後決定退出非策略性出口業務的影響。

Adjusted EBIT for the quarter was $188 million, benefiting from the absence of accelerated depreciation that we saw in prior periods. Adjusted EBITDA was $677 million and margins were 11.3%. We'll address the underlying margin drivers, including mix, cost timing and execution related impacts in more details as we move through the discussion. Free cash flow was $94 million in the quarter, which included a onetime $280 million tax refund. As a reminder, we also received $1.1 billion from the sale of the GCF business in the quarter, allowing us to pay down $660 million of debt, further strengthening the balance sheet.

本季調整後 EBIT 為 1.88 億美元，受惠於不再出現先前期間的加速折舊。調整後 EBITDA 為 6.77 億美元，利潤率為 11.3%。隨著討論進行，我們將更詳細說明影響基礎利潤率的驅動因素，包括組合（mix）、成本時點與執行相關影響。本季自由現金流為 9,400 萬美元，其中包含一次性 2.8 億美元的退稅。提醒一下，我們本季也自出售 GCF 業務取得 11 億美元，使我們得以償還 6.6 億美元債務，進一步強化資產負債表。

While earnings came in below our expectations, we must control what we can control. We are laser-focused on accelerating cost reductions in both regions, maximizing high-quality organic and inorganic investments and winning share intelligently.

雖然獲利低於我們的預期，但我們必須掌控可控事項。我們高度聚焦於加速兩個區域的降本、最大化高品質的有機與無機投資，並以更聰明的方式贏得市占。

Now, Lance will provide additional details on each business.

接下來 Lance 將就各項業務提供更多細節。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to slide 11 and starting with our Packaging Solutions North America first-quarter results compared to our fourth quarter results, price and mix was favorable by $24 million, driven primarily by product mix as well as higher export pricing. Volume was $52 million unfavorable, reflecting the normal seasonal step down across all channels from a strong fourth quarter as well as lower export sales from repositioning containerboard into the domestic market.

謝謝，Andy。轉到第 11 張投影片，先看 Packaging Solutions North America 第一季相較第四季的結果：價格與組合帶來 2,400 萬美元的有利影響，主要由產品組合以及較高的出口價格所驅動。銷量帶來 5,200 萬美元的不利影響，反映在強勁的第四季之後，各通路出現正常的季節性下滑，以及因將箱板紙重新配置至國內市場而導致出口銷售降低。

Operations and costs were $29 million unfavorable, primarily due to the winter storm impact of approximately $18 million as well as elevated costs due to reliability challenges. While we still experience some isolated reliability incidents each quarter, we are seeing progress. Improved operational performance across the mill system contributed $15 million of benefit in the quarter. Converting run rates continue to improve and the footprint rationalization is delivering cost-out each quarter. These improvements helped offset inflation and weather-related disruptions.

營運與成本帶來 2,900 萬美元的不利影響，主要是冬季風暴影響約 1,800 萬美元，以及因可靠性挑戰而導致成本偏高。雖然每季仍會出現一些零星的可靠性事件，但我們正看到進展。紙廠系統的營運表現改善在本季貢獻 1,500 萬美元的效益。加工（converting）端的運轉率持續改善，而據點合理化每季都在帶來降本成效。這些改善有助於抵銷通膨與天候相關的干擾。

Maintenance and outages were $17 million favorable, driven primarily by the timing of a planned outage. With reduced production in our mill system during the winter storm, our timing for certain planned outages shifted in order to support inventory build in advance of a heavy second quarter outage schedule. That deferral created approximately $20 million of timing benefit in the first quarter with the outage now expected to take place in the second quarter. Input costs were $43 million unfavorable, primarily due to a regional spike in natural gas prices and local utility costs related to the winter storm across our mill and box system, representing approximately $35 million.

維修與停機帶來 1,700 萬美元的有利影響，主要由計畫性停機的時點所驅動。由於冬季風暴期間我們的紙廠系統減產，為了在第二季密集的停機排程前支援庫存建立，我們調整了部分計畫性停機的時點。該延後在第一季帶來約 2,000 萬美元的時點效益，而該停機目前預期將在第二季進行。投入成本帶來 4,300 萬美元的不利影響，主要因區域性天然氣價格飆升，以及冬季風暴期間影響我們紙廠與紙箱系統的當地公用事業成本，合計約 3,500 萬美元。

Overall, the January winter storm resulted in approximately $53 million of unfavorable EBITDA impact across operations, costs and inputs. In total, Packaging Solutions North America delivered $477 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter.

整體而言，1 月冬季風暴在營運、成本與投入項目方面，對 EBITDA 造成約 5,300 萬美元的不利影響。合計而言，北美包裝解決方案事業在第一季實現 4.77 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Moving to our second quarter outlook for Packaging Solutions North America on Slide 12. Price and mix are expected to improve, driven primarily by favorable product mix. That improvement is partially offset by the impact of the $20 per ton price decrease published in February. As a reminder, given normal price realization lags, the published price increases of $40 per ton in March and $30 per ton in April will benefit results beginning in the third quarter.

接著看投影片 12，我們對北美包裝解決方案事業第二季的展望。預期價格與組合將改善，主要由有利的產品組合所帶動。該改善部分被 2 月公布的每噸 20 美元降價影響所抵銷。提醒一下，考量正常的價格實現落後期，3 月公布的每噸 40 美元漲價與 4 月公布的每噸 30 美元漲價，將自第三季起開始對結果帶來助益。

Volume is expected to be favorable, reflecting a seasonal pickup and 1 additional shipping day sequentially. Operations and costs are expected to be slightly unfavorable sequentially, primarily driven by the downtime associated with the Riverdale paper machine conversion and costs related to the additional machine work that coincides with planned outages, offset by the nonrepeat of the first quarter weather impacts and the benefit from cost reduction initiatives related to distribution.

預期銷量將呈現有利，反映季節性回升以及相較前一季多 1 個出貨日。預期營運與成本相較前一季將略為不利，主要受 Riverdale 造紙機改造相關停機，以及與計畫性停機同步進行的額外機台作業成本所驅動；上述影響將由第一季天候影響不再重複，以及與配送相關的降本措施效益所部分抵銷。

Maintenance and outages are expected to be unfavorable sequentially as the second quarter represents roughly twice a normal outage schedule, which includes spending tied to the Riverdale conversion. Finally, input costs are expected to be favorable, primarily due to favorable seasonal weather, partially offset by higher OCC and freight costs driven by diesel prices. These items result in an adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions North America of approximately $380 million to $410 million for the second quarter.

預期維修與停機相較前一季將不利，因第二季的停機排程約為正常水準的兩倍，其中包含與 Riverdale 改造相關的支出。最後，預期投入成本將有利，主要因季節性天候較佳，但部分被柴油價格帶動的 OCC 與運費成本上升所抵銷。綜合上述因素，北美包裝解決方案事業第二季調整後 EBITDA 展望約為 3.80 億至 4.10 億美元。

Let's turn to slide 13 and walk through what's changed in our 2026 Packaging Solutions North America outlook. At a high level, the full year outlook reflects unfavorable impact of the macro environment, winter weather, and weaker-than-expected operating performance with published pricing actions providing a meaningful offset.

接著看投影片 13，說明我們 2026 年北美包裝解決方案事業展望有哪些變化。整體而言，全年展望反映宏觀環境、冬季天候以及營運表現弱於預期所帶來的不利影響，而已公布的定價行動提供了顯著的抵銷。

We see North America industry demand roughly flat for the year, with our business growing approximately 2% above the market based on known customer wins. On the left-hand side of the slide, you can see our original 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion has been updated to $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion.

我們預期北美產業需求全年大致持平；基於已知的客戶得標，我們的業務成長約將比市場高出 2%。在投影片左側可見，我們原先 2026 年調整後 EBITDA 展望由 25 億至 26 億美元，更新為 23.5 億至 25 億美元。

On the right-hand side is a bridge that explains what's driving this change. Pricing is the largest positive impact representing approximately $175 million, which reflects the cumulative price impact of February, March and April price index publications. That benefit is offset by several headwinds. The macro environment represents about a $200 million unfavorable impact primarily driven by higher diesel and chemical costs inflation in OCC and other raw materials as well as the impact of lower demand. Performance represents approximately $75 million of headwinds, primarily driven by operation reliability costs as well as operational and commercial challenges in our specialty business.

右側是一個橋接圖，說明推動此變動的因素。定價是最大的正向影響，約為 1.75 億美元，反映 2 月、3 月與 4 月價格指數公布的累積價格影響。該效益被數項逆風所抵銷。宏觀環境約帶來 2 億美元的不利影響，主要由柴油與化學品成本上升、OCC 與其他原物料的通膨，以及需求下滑的影響所驅動。績效因素約帶來 7,500 萬美元的逆風，主要由營運可靠性成本，以及我們特種業務的營運與商業挑戰所致。

And finally, winter weather in the first quarter created an impact of approximately $50 million, as I previously discussed. Taken together, these items explain the step down from our original outlook to where we are today. The next slide highlights why we continue to expect meaningful improvement in the second half as these pressures ease and execution benefits come through.

最後，第一季冬季天候造成約 5,000 萬美元的影響，如我先前所述。綜合而言，這些項目解釋了我們從原先展望下修至目前水準的原因。下一張投影片將重點說明，為何我們仍預期下半年將有顯著改善，因這些壓力將緩解且執行效益將逐步顯現。

Moving to slide 14, with the full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook of $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion, we now expect to deliver $900 million in the first half with a step-up of $650 million, significantly increasing our second half results.

接著看投影片 14，在全年調整後 EBITDA 展望為 23.5 億至 25 億美元的情況下，我們目前預期上半年可達成 9 億美元，並在此基礎上增加 6.5 億美元，使下半年結果顯著提升。

The right side of the slide walks through the primary drivers which are well understood and are being executed in detail by our Packaging Solutions North America team. The largest contributor is an uplift in pricing, volume, mix and seasonality, totaling about $300 million. reflecting published price flowing through, seasonal demand patterns and mix benefits as we move into the back half of the year. 80/20 initiatives are expected to drive roughly $150 million of cost-outs driven by footprint actions, productivity improvements and supply chain initiatives that are already underway.

投影片右側說明主要驅動因素，這些因素已被充分理解，且由我們北美包裝解決方案團隊以細緻方式落實執行。最大貢獻來自定價、銷量、組合與季節性的提升，合計約 3 億美元，反映已公布價格逐步反映、季節性需求型態，以及進入下半年後的組合效益。80/20 計畫預期將推動約 1.5 億美元的成本削減，來源包括據點調整、生產力提升與已在進行中的供應鏈措施。

Planned maintenance outages contribute another $150 million as heavier outage activity in the first half rolls off in the second half. Conversion of the Riverdale paper machine in the mill's annual outage will be finished by the end of the second quarter. Those first half impacts of $100 million will not repeat in the second half. These benefits are partially offset by continued macro pressures, which we estimate as roughly a $50 million headwind in the second half, reflecting higher prices for diesel and chemicals.

計畫性維修停機另貢獻約 1.5 億美元，因上半年較重的停機活動在下半年消退。在工廠年度停機期間進行的 Riverdale 造紙機改造，將於第二季末前完成。上半年 1 億美元的影響在下半年將不再重複。上述效益部分被持續的宏觀壓力所抵銷；我們估計下半年約有 5,000 萬美元的逆風，反映柴油與化學品價格較高。

Putting it all together, these growth and timing impacts support an improvement of roughly $650 million. The key takeaway is that the second half improvement is driven by execution, pricing flow-through and normalization of known factors, and it underpins our confidence in Packaging Solutions North America earnings trajectory for the remainder of 2026.

綜合而言，這些成長與時點因素支持約 6.5 億美元的改善。關鍵重點是，下半年的改善由執行力、定價逐步反映以及已知因素的正常化所驅動，並支撐我們對 2026 年剩餘期間北美包裝解決方案事業獲利走勢的信心。

Turning to Packaging Solutions EMEA on slide 15, the business delivered solid first quarter results amid a challenging and dynamic macro environment. Price and mix was $12 million favorable sequentially. Packaging margins expanded due to the EUR40 paper price decline in January, which was mostly offset by lower paper margins tied to that same price decline. Volume was $3 million favorable sequentially.

接著看投影片 15 的 EMEA 包裝解決方案事業，在充滿挑戰且動態的宏觀環境下，該業務第一季交出穩健的結果。價格與組合相較前一季有利 1,200 萬美元。由於 1 月紙價下跌 40 歐元，包裝毛利擴張；但同一紙價下跌也使紙品毛利下降，因而大多被抵銷。銷量相較前一季有利 300 萬美元。

Although the post-holiday ramp-up in January was lower than expected, we were encouraged by improving trends as the quarter progressed. March volumes were up year-over-year on a same-day basis, indicating momentum heading into the second quarter.

儘管 1 月假期後的拉升幅度低於預期，但我們對本季進行期間趨勢改善感到鼓舞。以同日基礎計算，3 月銷量年增，顯示進入第二季的動能。

Operations and costs were $39 million unfavorable sequentially, primarily reflecting elevated costs as a result of onetime changes in segment allocations and incentive compensation. Higher European energy price volatility had a minimal impact on results in the quarter supported by our existing hedging program. All in, Packaging Solutions EMEA delivered $208 million of adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter.

營運與成本相較前一季不利 3,900 萬美元，主要反映因分部分攤的一次性變動與獎酬薪酬而導致的成本上升。在既有避險計畫的支持下，歐洲能源價格波動加劇對本季結果影響甚微。總體而言，EMEA 包裝解決方案事業第一季實現 2.08 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。

Moving to our second-quarter outlook for Packaging Solutions EMEA on slide 16. The key theme for the second quarter is peak margin compression as higher paper costs are realized ahead of pricing recovery. Energy-driven increases in paper prices are flowing through immediately while pricing actions and packaging lagged by roughly three to six months. This timing dynamic is pressuring margins in the near term before expanding as box pricing catches up. We expect pressure to moderate in the second half as prior paper price increases flow through our box contracts with margins progressively improving.

接著看投影片 16，我們對 EMEA 包裝解決方案事業第二季的展望。第二季的關鍵主題是：在定價回升之前，因紙成本上升先行反映而出現的毛利高峰壓縮。能源驅動的紙價上漲會立即反映，而定價行動與包裝端約落後三到六個月。這種時點差在短期內壓抑毛利，待紙箱定價追上後毛利將擴張。我們預期下半年壓力將趨緩，因先前的紙價上漲將逐步反映至我們的紙箱合約中，毛利將逐步改善。

Against that backdrop, price and mix are expected to be unfavorable for the second quarter. Volume is expected to be favorable sequentially primarily driven by recovery from the softness experienced in January and continuation of improving trends seen in March and April. We also expect incremental contributions from known customer wins secured in 2025 to build through the second quarter and into the second half. Operations and costs are expected to be unfavorable, primarily reflecting higher distribution costs flowing through the supply base as well as lower levels of energy subsidies. Finally, input costs are expected to be unfavorable driven by higher OCC and energy costs.

在此背景下，預期第二季價格與組合將不利。預期銷量相較前一季將有利，主要由 1 月疲弱後的復甦，以及 3 月與 4 月所見改善趨勢的延續所帶動。我們也預期 2025 年取得的已知客戶得標將在第二季並延伸至下半年逐步帶來增量貢獻。預期營運與成本將不利，主要反映供應基礎中較高的配送成本逐步反映，以及能源補貼水準降低。最後，預期投入成本將不利，受 OCC 與能源成本上升所驅動。

These items result in an adjusted EBITDA outlook for Packaging Solutions EMEA of approximately $150 million to $170 million in the second quarter.

綜合上述因素，EMEA 包裝解決方案事業第二季調整後 EBITDA 展望約為 1.5 億至 1.7 億美元。

Turning to slide 17, I'd like to walk through what's changed since we originally set our 2026 outlook for Packaging Solutions EMEA and how that translates to the updated full year EBITDA target. Since we set our original 2026 outlook, the net impact of the change is approximately $100 million, lowering our adjusted EBITDA range from $1 billion to $1.1 billion to $900 million to $1 billion.

接著看投影片 17，我想說明自我們最初設定 2026 年 EMEA 包裝解決方案事業展望以來有哪些變化，以及這如何轉化為更新後的全年 EBITDA 目標。自我們設定原先 2026 年展望以來，變動的淨影響約為 1 億美元，使我們的調整後 EBITDA 區間由 10 億至 11 億美元下調至 9 億至 10 億美元。

The largest driver is on the commercial side, totaling approximately $100 million. This reflects a combination of lower expected sales volume and margin compression versus our original assumptions. In particular, as we moved into the year, volume was affected by deliberate trade-offs we made last year in our commercial approach. And we also saw pressure on contribution margins in parts of the portfolio.

最大的驅動因素來自商業端，合計約1億美元。這反映了相較於我們原先假設，預期銷售量較低以及毛利率受到擠壓的綜合影響。特別是，隨著我們進入今年，銷量受到我們去年在商業策略上所做的刻意取捨所影響。此外，我們也在產品組合的部分領域看到貢獻毛利承壓。

On costs, the net impact is flat. The continued pressure from higher oil prices impacting distribution costs is offset by favorable OCC costs and cost-out actions already underway across the business. Overall, outlook represents a cost volume squeeze in 2Q that eases in 3Q and 4Q with strong price momentum going into 2027, assuming price increases into the market stick.

在成本方面，淨影響持平。油價上漲持續推升配送成本所帶來的壓力，被有利的OCC成本以及全公司已在推進的降本行動所抵銷。整體而言，展望顯示第二季將出現成本與銷量的擠壓，但在第三季與第四季將有所緩解，並在邁向2027年時具備強勁的價格動能，前提是市場能夠消化並維持這些漲價。

Turning to slide 18, we outlined the key drivers behind the step change we expect in EMEA as we move from the first half into the second half of the year. The core of the second half improvement is margin recovery and commercial uplift. As discussed earlier, we saw energy and paper price increases in the first quarter. And given it takes three to six months for these increases to flow through to our box contracts, we expect packaging margins to expand in the second half of the year.

接著看第18頁，我們概述了隨著我們從上半年進入下半年，預期EMEA將出現階躍式變化的關鍵驅動因素。下半年改善的核心在於毛利率回升與商業端提升。如先前所述，我們在第一季看到能源與紙張價格上漲。由於這些上漲需要三到六個月才會反映到我們的紙箱合約中，我們預期包裝毛利率將在下半年擴張。

On the volume side, the second half also benefits from three additional shipping days, normal seasonal improvement and the onboarding of new customer wins. Taken together, margin recovery and commercial volume uplift are expected to contribute approximately $110 million of incremental EBITDA in the second half.

在銷量方面，下半年也將受惠於多出三個出貨日、正常的季節性改善，以及新客戶得標案的導入。綜合而言，毛利率回升與商業銷量提升預計在下半年帶來約1.1億美元的增量EBITDA。

Beyond margin and volume, there are two additional contributors to the step up. First, we expect to realize $40 million of cost-out benefits in the second half primarily from footprint optimization actions that improve network efficiency, reduce fixed costs and support structural margin recovery. Second, we are assuming approximately $50 million of energy price improvement, reflecting anticipated cost normalization in the second half, assuming no further material escalation in the Middle East.

除了毛利率與銷量之外，還有兩項額外因素推動這一階躍式提升。第一，我們預期下半年可實現4,000萬美元的降本效益，主要來自據點/產能布局最佳化行動，以提升網路效率、降低固定成本並支持結構性毛利率回升。第二，我們假設能源價格改善約5,000萬美元，反映下半年預期的成本正常化，前提是中東局勢不再出現進一步的重大升級。

Altogether, these factors result in second half adjusted EBITDA of $540 million to $620 million for EMEA. Combined with our first half outlook, this view supports our full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA target of $900 million to $1 billion for Packaging Solutions EMEA.

綜合以上因素，EMEA下半年調整後EBITDA為5.4億至6.2億美元。結合我們對上半年的展望，這一觀點支持我們對Packaging Solutions EMEA在2026全年調整後EBITDA 9億至10億美元的目標。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Andy.

接下來，我把電話交回給Andy。

Thanks, Lance. I'm on slide 19. Before we wrap up the EMEA discussion, I want to provide a brief update on our separation process. As we outlined on our January earnings call, we announced plans to create 2 separate publicly traded companies in North America and EMEA. Since then, a small core team has been working through the separation planning, and we've made meaningful progress over the past 3 months.

謝謝，Lance。我在第19頁。在結束EMEA的討論之前，我想簡要更新我們的分拆進度。正如我們在1月的財報電話會議中所說明的，我們宣布計畫在北美與EMEA成立兩家獨立上市公司。自那時起，一個小型核心團隊一直在推進分拆規劃，且在過去三個月取得了實質進展。

Following the separation, International Paper expects to retain approximately a 20% ownership stake for roughly 12 to 18 months, and the EMEA packaging business is expected to be dual listed on both the LSE and NYSE. We also expect both companies to have investment-grade credit ratings.

分拆完成後，International Paper預期將保留約20%的持股，期間約12至18個月；而EMEA包裝業務預期將同時在倫敦證券交易所（LSE）與紐約證券交易所（NYSE）雙重上市。我們也預期兩家公司都將擁有投資等級的信用評等。

From a timing standpoint, we remain on track to complete the separation within the 12- to 15-month time frame we outlined in January, subject to customary approvals and conditions. This move is the right step to accelerate value creation for both businesses and will enable us to achieve best-in-class performance in each regional business.

就時程而言，我們仍按計畫在1月所提的12至15個月時間框架內完成分拆，但仍需取得慣常的核准與滿足相關條件。此舉是加速兩項業務價值創造的正確一步，並將使我們能在各區域業務中達到同業最佳的表現。

Let me close on slide 20 by stepping back and reinforcing what matters most. At International Paper, our focus remains clear and consistent, driving long-term value creation. Our 80/20 approach continues to sharpen our attention on the most important value drivers, reducing complexity and improving execution across the company.

最後在第20頁做個總結，退一步強調最重要的事情。在International Paper，我們的重點依然清晰且一致：推動長期價值創造。我們的80/20方法持續讓我們更聚焦於最重要的價值驅動因素，降低複雜度並提升全公司的執行力。

Against the backdrop of a heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, including elevated input costs and ongoing pressures affecting consumer demand, we have updated our full-year 2026 outlook for both businesses. In North America, we expect to deliver $2.35 billion to $2.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA. In EMEA, we are targeting $900 million to $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA. At the enterprise level, including corporate, that translates to $3.2 billion to $3.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Free cash flow of approximately $300 million to $500 million reinforces our commitment to disciplined capital allocation, a strong balance sheet and returning cash to shareholders.

在宏觀經濟不確定性升高的背景下，包括投入成本居高不下以及影響消費需求的持續壓力，我們已更新兩項業務對2026全年的展望。在北美，我們預期可達成23.5億至25億美元的調整後EBITDA。在EMEA，我們目標為9億至10億美元的調整後EBITDA。在企業層級（含公司本部）合計，對應為32億至35億美元的調整後EBITDA。約3億至5億美元的自由現金流，強化了我們對嚴謹資本配置、強健資產負債表以及回饋股東現金的承諾。

We are making real and meaningful progress in every part of our organization as we focus on controlling our own destiny while navigating the macro environment, we remain confident in our ability to drive long-term value creation at International Paper.

隨著我們在應對宏觀環境的同時，專注於掌握自身命運，我們在組織各個部分都取得了真實且有意義的進展；我們仍對International Paper推動長期價值創造的能力充滿信心。

With that, let's open it up for questions.

接下來，我們開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

(接線員指示) Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Andy, I wanted to get a sense, with the revised guide, $3.2 billion, $3.5 billion this year. At the midpoint, the $250 million cut. Can you help us bridge how to get the 2027 EBITDA of $5 billion, particularly as -- is this cut, whatever incremental costs are set back to some degree?

Andy，我想了解一下，在修正後的指引中，今年是32億到35億美元。以中位數來看，等於下修了2.5億美元。你能否協助我們銜接一下，如何達到2027年50億美元的EBITDA，特別是——這次下修、以及任何新增成本，是否在某種程度上造成了延後？

Yes, no problem. Thanks, Mike. So I think what I do is I focus on -- Lance took you through the bridge from the first half to the second half, which I think has been put through in a lot of detail there on kind of how that builds itself up, and the reliability of those elements and how they flow through the P&L.

可以，沒問題。謝謝你，Mike。我想我的做法是聚焦在——Lance已帶大家走過從上半年到下半年的銜接，我認為那裡已經非常詳細地說明了它如何逐步建立起來，以及這些要素的可靠性，還有它們如何流入損益表。

So if you look at the balance of that and then you add incremental price that will flow through in the year. So right now, in North America, you're talking about a net of $50 that's been published. So you'll get about half of that this year, you'll get half of that incrementally next year. And then in Europe, you have $100 -- EUR100 price increase that's gone through. You'll get a piece of that this year and the bulk of that in the following year.

所以如果你看那部分的平衡，然後再加上今年會逐步反映的額外漲價。目前在北美，你談的是已公布的淨額50美元。因此今年大約會反映其中一半，明年會再增量反映另一半。而在歐洲，你有100——也就是100歐元的漲價已經落地。今年會反映其中一部分，隔年會反映大部分。

And so you take those incremental items plus what was in our funnel relative to operating cost improvements and considered a very modest market growth kind of returning to overall normal market growth, about 1 point in the US and 1 point to 2 points in Europe, plus share wins that we believe that we will have in the year. That all adds up right into the range that we're talking about.

因此，你把這些增量項目，加上我們在管線中的營運成本改善，並假設市場成長非常溫和、回到整體正常的市場成長——美國約1個百分點、歐洲約1到2個百分點——再加上我們相信今年能取得的市占/客戶得標。這些加總起來，就正好落在我們所談的區間之內。

Got it. Just a quick follow-up. I mean, I don't believe the original guidance embedded much in the way of price. So really, the incremental here is you're going to be able to hit your guide because of the $50 per ton net in North America plus EUR100 per metric ton as well. That's really what's going to help you get to those -- to hit your 2027 target.

了解。再追問一個很快的問題。我的意思是，我不認為原先的指引在價格方面有納入太多。所以這裡的增量其實是：你們能達成指引，是因為北美每噸淨額50美元，加上每公噸100歐元也是如此。這確實就是能幫助你們達到——並達成2027年目標的關鍵。

Yes. To be clear, Mike, this does not include any other pricing that may come through. So nothing that's been talked about in the market, this is -- the only thing that's included in there is what's been published so far.

是的。Mike，說清楚一點，這不包含任何其他可能出現的定價。所以市場上其他被討論的都不算；這裡面唯一納入的，就是截至目前已公布的內容。

Got it. And then just quickly strategic customer wins, obviously, it's helping you drive your volume growth, pretty strong performance there. To the extent you can comment on what end markets do you see these gains? And can you also remind us how IP was able to secure these wins? I'm assuming that -- I don't think it was done on price given the company's refocused commercial mindset.

了解。接著很快談一下策略性客戶的贏單，顯然這有助於帶動你們的出貨量成長，那邊表現相當強勁。在你們方便評論的範圍內，你們看到這些斬獲主要來自哪些終端市場？另外也請提醒我們，IP 是如何拿下這些案子的？我猜想——考量公司重新聚焦的商業思維，我不認為是靠價格拿下的。

Yes, a few things there, right? So we've seen pretty consistent wins here since the late part of 2024 and through 2025. And so it's been really a broad mix across end markets. So it's really across every product category that we've been in. We've won nationally and we've won locally in the US

是的，這裡有幾點。我們自 2024 年下半年起一路到 2025 年，看到相當持續的贏單。而且這些贏單在終端市場上是非常廣泛的組合。基本上涵蓋我們涉足的每一個產品類別。我們在美國既有全國性的贏單，也有在地性的贏單。

And we've done a very nice job of what we call our central accounts in Europe. So think of pan-European accounts there. We haven't done as well locally in Europe as we have in the US We need to get better from that regard. So it's broad-based, and it's national and it's local accounts that we've seen.

而且我們在歐洲所謂的「中央客戶」（central accounts）也做得很好。也就是泛歐洲的客戶。我們在歐洲的在地表現不如在美國，需要在這方面做得更好。所以整體來說是廣泛分布的，包含全國性與在地性客戶的贏單。

To your point, we have not been aggressive on pricing. We have tried to really price to the market. I mean, as you know, with any large tender, right, price is a factor in there, but that comes after service and it comes after quality. That reliability of supply is the single most important factor for -- certainly for every customer, but as you're onboarding a large customer and we've done several here over the last year or so, that takes considerable time because they are exceptionally concerned about that cutover and not losing the ability to get their packaging supplies, so we've seen that very consistently.

如你所說，我們在定價上並沒有採取激進策略。我們一直努力做到貼近市場定價。我的意思是，如你所知，任何大型標案中，價格當然是一個因素，但它是在服務之後、品質之後才會被考量。供應可靠性是最重要的單一因素——對所有客戶都是如此，尤其是在導入大型客戶時；而我們過去一年左右已導入了好幾個，這需要相當長的時間，因為他們非常擔心切換過程，不能失去取得包裝供應的能力，所以我們一直很一致地看到這點。

And we have, on purpose, very purposefully kept our discipline relative to market pricing. And I think that's very important. And we're starting to see those things play out in the marketplace as we're seeing inflation make its way through.

而且我們是刻意、非常有意識地維持相對於市場定價的紀律。我認為這非常重要。隨著通膨逐步傳導，我們也開始看到這些因素在市場上發酵。

So I feel really good about where we are commercially. As you know, we've radically restructured our sales force and our incentive system in the US. Europe is a little bit different model. We have -- there is a pan-European model and a local model that we're getting more synthesis from more synergy from, frankly, as those businesses come together, meaning the legacy IP and the legacy DS Smith EMEA, but it really is winning customer by customer.

所以我對我們在商業端的狀況感到非常有信心。如你所知，我們在美國已大幅重整銷售團隊與獎酬制度。歐洲的模式稍有不同。我們同時有泛歐洲模式與在地模式；坦白說，隨著這些業務整合在一起——也就是原本的 IP 與原本的 DS Smith EMEA——我們正從中取得更多整合與協同效益，但本質上仍是一個客戶一個客戶地去贏。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

Mark Weintraub，Seaport Research Partners。

So for a while there, you were way behind (inaudible) on market growth, you're losing a lot of share and you turned that around, and you saw it coming, and now we're seeing it. What we're not seeing is the reliability part of the equation playing out? Are you seeing things now that can give us confidence that, that's going to start showing up? And what are those things?

所以有一段時間，你們在市場成長上遠遠落後（聽不清），市占流失很多；你們把局面扭轉過來，你們也早就看到了趨勢，而現在我們也看到了。但我們沒有看到的是，方程式中的「可靠性」那一部分如何反映出來？你們現在是否看到一些跡象，能讓我們有信心它會開始顯現？那些跡象是什麼？

Yes. I can, Mark. And if you go back to the slide -- sorry, I don't have the slide number right in front of me that shows the capacity utilization and the productivity improvements in the mill and the box plant. If you go back starting in the fall of 2024, when we really started to execute the overall changes, and that was a combination of starting to accelerate capital investment and the lighthouse approach. And the lighthouse approach is really a focused approach around how do you run a good system daily.

是的。我可以回答，Mark。如果你回去看那張投影片——抱歉，我手邊沒有投影片編號——那張顯示紙廠與紙箱廠的產能利用率與生產力改善。如果你從 2024 年秋季開始回看，當時我們真正開始落實整體變革；那是加速資本投資與「燈塔方法」（lighthouse approach）的組合。而燈塔方法本質上是一種聚焦的方法，核心是：如何每天把系統運作好。

How do you do that daily. If you've seen that, you see a 7% to 8% overall improvement in those systems, both the systems in North America, which I think is very, very important.

如何每天做到。如果你看那張圖，你會看到整體系統改善了 7% 到 8%，包含北美的系統；我認為這非常、非常重要。

Where we're missing, Mark, is in the transactional or transformation costs, think of things like network cost in terms of distribution and shipping, the cost of having assets on our books longer than expected and having to maintain them. We're eating some of that. We're also -- unfortunately, we're eating some contract cost of -- if you look back at the (inaudible) contract, which ends this month. So in April, that ends, we'll eat about $20 million more than expected in that contract because of performance. So that's going to come out and those assets no longer need to perform.

我們目前缺口所在，Mark，是在交易性或轉型成本上；例如網路成本（network cost），也就是配送與運輸的成本，還有資產在帳上持有時間比預期更久、因此需要維護的成本。這些成本我們正在承擔一部分。另外——不幸的是——我們也在承擔一些合約成本；如果你回頭看那個（聽不清）合約，它在本月到期。所以在 4 月結束時，因為績效因素，我們在那份合約上會比預期多承擔約 2,000 萬美元。這部分將會消失，而且那些資產也不再需要繼續履約。

And so there are assets that, frankly, we're underinvested in and we're going to eat that. That's going to come out of the system. Our specialty business, think of it as bulk products and the like. That has missed our expectations, Mark. The market has been weaker. We've had some reliability issues. We've accelerated the investment in there.

因此有些資產，坦白說，我們過去投資不足，而我們會把這個成本吃下來。這些將會從系統中移除。我們的特殊品業務——可以把它想成散裝產品等——這部分沒有達到我們的預期，Mark。市場更疲弱。我們也遇到一些可靠性問題。我們已加速在那裡的投資。

So the key to it -- and look, I'm in the same boat you are. It's -- you've got to see it to believe it. The key is that the core assets, the core large, CL assets that we are investing in, we are seeing the measurable changes in productivity that are driven by reliability. As you know, reliability is the underlying first step in productivity. Now, we've got to drive down these ancillary costs that have been out there, and we have very good line of sight to that.

所以關鍵在於——而且你看，我跟你一樣。就是——你得看到才會相信。關鍵是：我們正在投資的核心資產、核心大型的 CL 資產，我們已經看到由可靠性帶動、可量化的生產力變化。如你所知，可靠性是生產力的底層第一步。現在，我們必須把那些外圍成本壓下來；對此我們有非常清楚的掌握。

So as an example, if you think of kind of cube utilization and transportation, we have driven that. We've gone very aggressively after that. We're still early in there, and we've driven huge improvements in the first stages of that. So that's an example of that across the system. So major improvements in the major assets, and now we've got to take care of the ancillary issues that are very solvable but they, frankly, are a pain in the butt and they're worse than our expectations.

舉例來說，如果你想到裝載立方利用率（cube utilization）與運輸，我們已經在推動改善。我們非常積極地去做。我們仍在早期階段，但在第一階段已經帶來巨大的改善。這就是整個系統中一個例子。所以主要資產有重大改善，接下來我們必須處理那些外圍問題；它們其實很可解，但坦白說很麻煩，而且比我們預期更糟。

Got you. So I do want to ask real quick -- I'm going to ask on NORPAC, just one real quick follow-up on this is, so it sounds like there's sort of a lot of quasi onetime stuff here that's like the transformation, the contract cost. Is there a ballpark number as to how much that might be impacting this year where, again, you can have a pretty high degree of confidence that it should show up next year because it's quasi onetime?

了解。所以我想很快問一下——我會問 NORPAC，針對這點再追問一個：聽起來這裡有不少近似一次性的項目，例如轉型、合約成本。大概有沒有一個數字，說明它今年可能造成多大影響；也就是說，你們可以相當有把握它明年會顯現，因為它是近似一次性的？

Yes. It's at least $100 million.

有。至少 1 億美元。

That's right.

沒錯。

Yes.

是的。

Correct.

正確。

Okay. Super. And then if I could quickly on NORPAC, $360 million. I mean, technically 3 big paper machines, so a lot of production capacity. So hard from the outside to square away all the numbers. And anything additionally you can tell us about EBITDA and what it can bring to you?

好的。太好了。然後如果我可以很快再問 NORPAC，3.6 億美元。技術上是 3 台大型造紙機，所以產能很大。從外部很難把所有數字對起來。關於 EBITDA，以及它能為你們帶來什麼，你還能多告訴我們一些嗎？

Yes. So first of all, Mark, I am very excited about this. When I step back and if you think about our overall strategy around our mill network, right, which is to drive down the overall cost point, right, we want to drive to an advantaged cost position. That's one of our key pillars of our strategy. And second, as we're driving reliability throughout the system and then finally, driving overall returns. This is a great example of the kind of investments and changes we need to make.

是的。所以首先，Mark，我對此感到非常興奮。當我退一步看，若你思考我們圍繞整體工廠網路的總體策略，對吧，也就是要降低整體成本水準，對吧，我們希望達到具優勢的成本地位。那是我們策略的關鍵支柱之一。第二，在我們推動整個系統的可靠性之際，最後則是推動整體報酬。這就是我們需要進行的那類投資與變革的一個很好的例子。

So if you kind of take a big step back for a second. We closed three North American mills last year, right, Savannah and Red River being the two big ones. In there. Both of those assets, we came to a conclusion after a lot of work that you were never going to earn an exciting return on investment or incremental investment in those assets.

所以如果你先稍微退一步、從大局來看。我們去年關閉了三座北美工廠，對吧，Savannah 和 Red River 是其中兩座較大的。在那裡。對於這兩項資產，我們在做了大量工作後得出結論：你不可能在那些資產上，無論是原始投資或追加投資，獲得令人振奮的投資報酬。

And so as we close those, we have fundamentally did two really big things. Number one, we moved a bunch of people and a bunch of investment to [Mansfield.] And if you recall, Mansfield was a huge bug (inaudible) a year ago. and we have effectively eliminated that issue. I was at Mansfield very recently with the team they have just done a masterful job.

因此，當我們關閉它們時，我們從根本上做了兩件非常重大的事。第一，我們把一大批人員與一大筆投資轉移到 [Mansfield.]。如果你還記得，Mansfield 在一年前是一個很大的問題（聽不清），而我們已經有效地消除了那個問題。我最近才和團隊一起到過 Mansfield，他們做得非常出色。

And while certainly, it's not where we want it to be yet, if you compare that business that asset rather to where we were a year ago, it's pretty remarkable with what they've done with getting better capabilities overall, some new team members and a bunch of new investments.

而且當然，它還沒到我們希望的水準；但如果你把那個業務——更準確地說，那項資產——與一年前相比，他們在提升整體能力、引進一些新團隊成員以及投入大量新投資方面所做的事情，確實相當令人驚豔。

So that's kind of one big step going from an underperforming asset that's never going to return an attractive return to now to a really high-performing asset with a great team that can drive excellent returns.

所以這是一個很大的轉變：從一個表現不佳、永遠不可能帶來具吸引力報酬的資產，轉變成如今一個表現非常出色、擁有優秀團隊、能夠帶來卓越報酬的資產。

Second, you got NORPAC right? So NORPAC as you mentioned, it's on the West Coast. We're significantly short paper on the West Coast. We're shipping paper to the West Coast uneconomically. It allows us to go more towards the lightweight market that you know is critically important in that market.

第二，你提到 NORPAC，對吧？如你所說，NORPAC 在西岸。我們在西岸的紙品供應明顯不足。我們一直以不具經濟效益的方式把紙運到西岸。它讓我們能更朝向你所知道、在該市場極其重要的輕量化市場發展。

And to your point, it's a big asset with three paper machines, two in our core market, one that's not, it can be in the future if we choose to be. And so as I look at that trade of assets, it's exactly the kind of stuff we need to do. If you think of it kind of from a bell curve, you go from the left-hand side of the bell curve that's underperforming all the way to the right-hand side to high-performing with Mansfield and with NORPAC.

而且如你所說，這是一項大型資產，有三台造紙機，其中兩台在我們的核心市場，一台目前不在；如果我們未來選擇進入，它也可以成為核心市場的一部分。所以當我看這個資產組合的取捨時，這正是我們需要做的事情。如果你用鐘形曲線來想，就是從左側表現不佳，一路移到右側的高績效——在 Mansfield 與 NORPAC 上都是如此。

In terms of returns, our belief on a full-year basis as we get into '27, it's going to be high teens or better in terms of return on invested capital. So you can do your math out of that there. It's got solid EBITDA in its current system. But we've got some work to do, not on the asset itself. It's really a great asset, but really bringing it into our network.

就報酬而言，我們相信以全年基礎來看，當我們進入 2027 年時，投入資本報酬率（ROIC）將會是十幾個百分點的高段或更高。所以你可以據此自行推算。在目前的系統下，它有穩健的 EBITDA。但我們還有一些工作要做，不是在資產本身上。它其實是一項很棒的資產，真正要做的是把它納入我們的網路體系。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

Anthony Pettinari，花旗。

This is actually Bryan Burgmeier on for Anthony. Just wondering if you could maybe share some high-level thoughts on sort of the supply-demand outlook in Europe. I think we've seen some closure announcements, maybe higher energy prices kind of pressure -- high-cost players. I'm not sure how you're thinking about just a broader supply demand outlook for the region.

我其實是代替 Anthony 的 Bryan Burgmeier。想請問你是否可以分享一些高層次的看法，關於歐洲供需展望。我想我們看到一些關閉產能的公告，可能還有較高的能源價格對——高成本業者造成壓力。我不確定你們如何看待該地區更廣泛的供需前景。

Yes. So it's -- I would say demand is modestly down compared to expectations. It's still growing in Europe modestly. We expect it to be about 1 point less than we came into the year when it's all said and done. I think that's a fair assessment, really driven from the consumer side is the consumers being overall more hesitant, and we all know the reasons behind that relative to the most recent impacts of the conflict in Iran.

是的。所以——我會說需求相較於預期略為下滑。歐洲的需求仍在溫和成長。我們預期等到年底總結時，會比我們年初的預期少大約 1 個百分點。我認為這是合理的評估，主要是由消費端驅動，也就是消費者整體更為謹慎；而我們都知道原因，與伊朗衝突近期影響有關。

And so we expect that to continue for a little bit of time as the uncertainty is out there economically, kind of broad-based uncertainty that was first driven by trade and tariffs and now the conflict in the Middle East. So I think it will be a little bit weaker than expected but still positive.

因此，我們預期在經濟面仍存在不確定性的情況下，這種狀況還會持續一段時間；這種廣泛的不確定性一開始是由貿易與關稅所驅動，現在則是中東衝突。所以我認為它會比預期稍弱，但仍然是正成長。

On the energy side, as we mentioned -- as Lance mentioned in his comments, we have a very effective hedging strategy that's in place that assuming that price sticks will buy us time to pass through into the marketplace, the EUR100 that's gone through. That EUR100 is worth about [$300 million] on an annualized basis in Europe, and it will obviously overcome the issues that we're facing in the short term.

在能源方面，正如我們提到的——正如 Lance 在他的評論中提到的，我們已建立一套非常有效的避險策略；假設價格維持在目前水準，這將為我們爭取時間，把已上漲的 100 歐元逐步轉嫁到市場。這 100 歐元以年化計算在歐洲約相當於 [3 億美元]，而且顯然能夠克服我們短期面臨的問題。

So if you look at our P&L, we're getting that kind of profit accordion squeeze in the short term, specifically in the second quarter until pricing starts to make its way through the system. Very specifically relative to kind of the marketplace and high-cost producers. I think one of the things that's very interesting and important as we look at what's happening in EMEA relative to the energy shock that the world is experiencing right now is when you look at the bottom quartile assets in the marketplace, there are 2 things that this -- makes their life very, very difficult.

所以如果你看我們的損益表（P&L），短期內我們正遭遇那種利潤「手風琴式」被擠壓的情況，特別是在第二季，直到定價開始在系統中逐步傳導。非常具體地說，關於市場與高成本生產者。我認為當我們觀察 EMEA 在當前全球能源衝擊下的情況時，有一點非常有趣且重要：當你看市場中處於最低四分位的資產時，有兩件事會讓他們的日子變得非常、非常困難。

The first one is they tend to be older assets generally that have just more reliability problems and tend to struggle in terms of their overall cost position. They also are fossil fuel dependent much more so than the newer assets. And so when you combine those two things together, this situation right now is very, very painful. As best as we can tell, and it's our own analytics and the analytics that we use from the outside -- from outside experts. That fourth quartile is very likely under cash cost right now, right?

第一，它們通常是較老舊的資產，普遍有更多可靠性問題，並且在整體成本地位上往往更吃力。第二，相較於較新的資產，它們對化石燃料的依賴程度高得多。因此，當你把這兩件事結合在一起，眼下的情況就非常、非常痛苦。就我們所能判斷的——基於我們自己的分析，以及我們採用的外部——外部專家分析。那個第四分位目前很可能已低於現金成本（cash cost），對吧？

So you're actually -- you're seeing that -- you've seen small pieces of action relative to that, whether it's temporary shutdowns, furloughs, you're seeing a few closures that have happened modestly.

所以你其實——你正在看到——你已經看到一些小規模的動作，不論是暫時停產、無薪假（furloughs），你也看到少數關閉產能的情況，幅度不大。

And I also think we've got to be realistic. Historically, people have looked at some kind of panacea, like all of a sudden, the fourth quartile will wake up and close itself. It's not going to happen. They're going to hold on as long as they possibly can, hoping that the price comes through the market. So we shouldn't expect this to be like a mass pivot point in the marketplace.

而且我也認為我們必須務實。歷史上，人們總會期待某種靈丹妙藥，好像第四分位會突然醒悟並自行關閉。這不會發生。他們會盡可能撐下去，期待價格能在市場中傳導上來。所以我們不應期待這會成為市場上的大規模轉折點。

That's really never happened. That being said, capacity is slowly coming out of the system as you see folks being under cash cost. So this is a very, very difficult time if you are a fourth quartile producer.

那真的從未發生過。不過話說回來，當你看到一些業者低於現金成本時，產能確實正在緩慢退出系統。所以如果你是第四分位的生產者，這是一段非常、非常艱難的時期。

Got it. Really appreciate all that detail. Just one quick follow-up for me, and then I can turn it over. Just curious if there was any change in demand kind of throughout the quarter into April, just following the kind of cost spike that took place in March. Yes, I can go ahead and turn it over.

了解。非常感謝你提供這麼多細節。我這邊再追問一個很快的問題，然後我就把時間交出去。只是好奇在 3 月發生那波成本飆升之後，整個季度一路到 4 月，需求是否有任何變化。是的，我可以把時間交出去。

Yes. So not really. It's actually -- we have not seen a major change. I think that from a pattern standpoint, as we all talked about, January in the US was really strong, right?

是的。所以其實沒有。實際上——我們沒有看到重大變化。我認為從趨勢的角度來看，正如我們大家討論過的，美國1月表現非常強勁，對吧？

It popped up as I expressed very openly in our quarterly calls and in the one-on-ones I've had since then, we really believe that a big piece of that was the drawdown of inventory that happened in the fourth quarter, and that was a snapback and that proved to be accurate. And so folks who may have gotten over their skis about that, I think we're seeing kind of the normalization of that.

正如我在我們的季度電話會議以及此後我進行的一對一交流中非常坦率地表達的那樣，它確實跳升了；我們相信其中很大一部分原因是第四季發生的庫存去化，而那是一個反彈，且事後證明這個判斷是正確的。因此，對於那些可能因此過度樂觀的人，我認為我們正在看到某種程度的正常化。

And now we're kind of seeing the market in the US is basically flat. The marketplace, it was down 0.3% overall in the first quarter that you saw. And I think what's important here is you got to look at it on a daily basis, right? So if you look at the market data, the industry data that comes out, the really important thing is looking at it on a daily basis.

而現在我們看到美國市場基本持平。你看到的第一季整體市場下滑了0.3%。我認為這裡重要的是，你必須以每日為基礎來看，對吧？所以如果你看市場數據、產業數據的發布，真正重要的是以每日為基礎來觀察。

And that net down 0.3%. We think the second quarter is basically flat. The balance of the year is effectively flat for the industry in North America, and we'll outpace that. As we get into the second half, we'll start to comp -- we'll have a lot more difficult comps, so that will come down. Overall, we believe will beat the market by about 2 points.

而淨下滑0.3%。我們認為第二季基本持平。今年剩餘期間，北美產業基本上也是持平，而我們會跑贏它。進入下半年後，我們將開始進入同比基期——我們會面臨更具挑戰性的比較基期，所以增速會下來。整體而言，我們相信將比市場高出約2個百分點。

In Europe, I think you're going to see basically 0.5 point to 1 point of market growth. That's what it's feeling like right now. We were a little bit behind the market in the first quarter. And as we have been holding on price to value, we'll be targeted where we need to be to make sure we don't lose important business on price where we should get there.

在歐洲，我認為你會看到大約0.5個百分點到1個百分點的市場成長。目前的感覺就是如此。我們第一季略落後於市場。而在我們一直堅持「價格對應價值」的同時，我們會在需要的地方有針對性地調整，確保不會在應該到位的價格上流失重要業務。

That being said, we are going to be very discerning on pricing to value, right? It's important that we keep that discipline for ourselves as we look at the marketplace. So, Lance, anything you'd add there? All right.

話雖如此，我們在「價格對應價值」上會非常審慎，對吧？當我們審視市場時，保持這種自律對我們很重要。所以，Lance，你還要補充什麼嗎？好。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行（Bank of America）的George Staphos。

A lot of my questions have already been answered, but I want to ask a couple of things. First, a top-down, so if we sit back and look at 80/20, what have you achieved cumulatively across the enterprise in terms of cost out and commercial? And what's left to go through 2027. So through first quarter of '26, what have you gotten? And what is left to go that will help you build towards the ultimate '27 goal, I guess, if -- then I had a question, a 2-parter on slides 13 and 14.

我很多問題已經被回答了，但我想再問幾件事。首先，從自上而下的角度，如果我們退一步看80/20，你們在整個企業層面累計在降本與商業端達成了什麼成果？以及到2027年還剩下什麼要完成。也就是到26年第一季為止，你們已經拿到了什麼？以及還剩下什麼能幫助你們朝最終的27年目標推進——另外我還有一個關於第13與第14頁投影片的兩段式問題。

Yes. George, I'm going to answer, and this is not going to be exact. I can put the pieces together for you and we can certainly get back to you on it, but I'll take you through in rough math, and Lance keep me honest.

是的。George，我來回答，而且這不會是精確數字。我可以把各部分拼給你，我們也當然可以再回覆你更精確的內容，但我會用大致的數學帶你走一遍，Lance也請你幫我把關。

I will.

我會的。

So in terms of total cost out, if you recall, in the last quarter, we talked about $700 million total that has come out of the system when it's all said -- thus far. When it's all said and done, we will take out more than $1 billion of cost in the system.

就總體降本而言，如果你還記得，我們在上一季談到目前為止系統內總共已經移除了7億美元的成本——到目前為止。等到全部完成時，我們將從系統中移除超過10億美元的成本。

So if you see -- if you look at in the US, I still think we've got $200 million or $300 million of cost that is latent within the system at normal operating rates. And so if I just kind of look at that, that's -- and where is that? That's sitting principally in those ancillary costs that we talked about, that $100 million that we're eating this year, and another couple of hundred million dollars of efficiency as you drive productivity through the mill system. That's how I look at the US, principally.

所以如果你看——如果你看美國，我仍然認為在正常營運水準下，系統內還潛藏著2億到3億美元的成本。所以如果我這樣看，那就是——那在哪裡？主要是在我們談到的那些附帶成本裡，也就是我們今年正在承擔的那1億美元，以及當你透過紙廠系統推動生產力時，還有另外幾億美元的效率提升。這就是我對美國部分的主要看法。

You've also got some costs that haven't come out yet. As you know, we've outsourced IT. That process unfolds throughout this year, mostly in the first half. So you'll see some incremental costs come from there. Frankly, while you save a little bit of money on there, that's really a capability play more than anything else.

你還有一些成本尚未釋出。如你所知，我們已將IT外包。這個流程會在今年逐步展開，主要在上半年。所以你會看到那裡帶來一些增量成本。坦白說，雖然那裡也會省下一點錢，但那更多是一個能力建置的布局，而不是其他。

In Europe, if you flip over to Europe, and I think this is really important. If you look at that -- go to that one slide in the deck that talks about what we have done so far. We have announced 31 facilities closures, an impact to 2,800 people that's unfortunate for them, but really critical to be done to rightsize the competitiveness of the company. That has about $200 million of annualized impact, and I would argue that there's probably another $100 million after that to go after.

在歐洲，如果你切換到歐洲，我認為這點非常重要。如果你看那個——翻到簡報裡那一頁，談到我們到目前為止做了什麼。我們已宣布關閉31處設施，影響到2,800名員工，這對他們來說很不幸，但對於調整公司規模、提升競爭力而言是非常關鍵且必須完成的。這帶來約2億美元的年化影響，而我認為之後大概還有另外1億美元可以再去爭取。

So as I break it down from -- just from a cost-out perspective, that's how I get to over $1 billion. Now you have some offsets to that, right? You've got we -- the shutdown of Savannah was basically a 1 for 1, call it, about $300 million of cost savings and EBITDA loss on the marginal piece. But on a return on capital basis, it's a home run for us. So that's how I break that out, George. Hopefully, that's effective.

所以如果我把它拆解——就單從降本角度來看，這就是我如何算到超過10億美元。現在你也有一些抵銷項，對吧？你有——Savannah停產基本上可以說是一比一，大約3億美元的成本節省，同時在邊際部分也有EBITDA的損失。但從資本報酬率的角度來看，這對我們是大勝。所以，George，我就是這樣拆解的。希望這樣有幫助。

Yes. That's helpful. We appreciate it, Andy. The other question I had is a 2-parter on slides 13 and 14. So in particular, I want to spend time on 14, the year is the year you're making progress.

是的。這很有幫助。謝謝你，Andy。我另一個問題是關於第13與第14頁投影片的兩段式問題。特別是我想花時間談第14頁，因為今年是你們正在取得進展的一年。

You're pretty candid about what's been not going the way you'd like. This step up -- to the second half of '26 in North America, you lay it out, but it's quite large. Of the items that you have in that $650 million, let's hold the macro to the side because you're not going to control that. Which of those line items do you feel least comfortable about? Said differently, why do you feel comfortable that you can see a 75% step-up in first half to second half EBITDA.

你們對哪些事情沒有如你們所願進展相當坦率。在北美，從26年上半年到下半年的這個躍升，你們有列出來，但幅度相當大。在那6.5億美元的各項因素中，我們先把總體環境放一邊，因為那不是你們能控制的。你對哪些細項最沒有把握？換句話說，你為什麼有信心能看到上半年到下半年EBITDA提升75%？

The related question, when I do the math on your pricing on slide 13, the $175 million, I get -- even if I adjust for half a year, I guess something less than $50 per ton across the system. Is that mix? Is that timing? What else is going on there, if you could help us bridge that.

相關的問題是，當我用你們第13頁的定價數字來算，那1.75億美元，我算出來——即使我調整為半年的影響，我猜整個系統平均每噸不到50美元。那是組合因素嗎？是時點因素嗎？還有其他因素在裡面嗎？如果你能幫我們把這之間的橋接關係說清楚。

Yes, no problem. Thanks, George. So to answer your first question, on the step-up here, I think from a price, volume, mix seasonality feel very comfortable there unless something lackey happens in the world, right? So if you look at the world as it is today, I feel very reliable that, that part takes place on a half-over-half basis.

是的，沒問題。謝謝，George。先回答你第一個問題，關於這裡的躍升，我認為在價格、銷量、組合與季節性方面我都很有把握，除非世界上發生了什麼離譜的事情，對吧？所以如果你看今天的世界狀況，我非常有信心這部分會在上下半年之間如期發生。

The other thing -- the other part, obviously, that you feel really good about is the $150 million of timing of planned maintenance, right? We control that very, very well. So you've got $450 million of the $650 million that you feel really good about. The $100 million of the Riverdale conversion, that feels really good because that's cost that you're spending in the first half that you're not spending in the second half. The risk of that, right, is the ramp-up, right? That's -- any risk to that is a ramp-up. And we've tried to be conservative in the planning that's built into that $100 million.

另外一件事——另一個部分，顯然，你們非常有把握的是計畫性維護時點調整帶來的1.5億美元，對吧？我們對這個控制得非常、非常好。所以在6.5億美元裡，你們有4.5億美元是非常有把握的。Riverdale轉換的1億美元，這部分也讓人很有把握，因為那是你們在上半年支出的成本、但下半年不再支出。這裡的風險，對吧，是爬坡（ramp-up），對吧？也就是——任何風險都在於爬坡。而我們在納入這1億美元的規劃時，已經盡量採取保守假設。

So I really think that the two big pieces that you say, hey, there's risk there, the $150 million of basically the stuff we're taking out of the system and the [$50 million] of the macro -- incremental macro, principally is tied to diesel early. I mean, when it's all said and done. So I think those are the 2 big things. So let's talk -- the [$50 million,] I can't control, right? I don't have really any control over that.

所以我真的認為，你說「嘿，這裡有風險」的兩大塊，是1.5億美元——基本上是我們從系統中拿掉的那些項目——以及[5,000萬美元]的宏觀因素——額外的宏觀增量，主要與柴油在前期的影響有關。我的意思是，最後歸結起來就是這樣。所以我認為這就是兩個最大的點。那我們來談談——[5,000萬美元]這塊我無法控制，對吧？我對那個真的沒有任何控制力。

So we'll see where that plays out. So it's the $150 million that really is -- if I were in your shoes, that's where I'm drilling into. And frankly, from an operating basis, that's where I'm drilling in -- that's what we're spending our time on.

所以我們就看看最後會怎麼發展。因此真正的重點是那1.5億美元——如果我是你，我會把鑽研的重點放在那裡。坦白說，從營運角度，我也在鑽研那裡——那就是我們花時間在做的事。

Yes. And so that's a bunch of things in there. But really, the few big things are executing the open items on footprint rationalization, right? So you've got to nail those. You've got the continuing to drive that capacity utilization in the mill system where if you look at post the ice storm.

是的。所以那裡面包含很多事情。但真正幾個大的重點是：把產能版圖合理化（footprint rationalization）中尚未完成的開放項目執行到位，對吧？所以你必須把那些釘死、做到位。另外是持續推動製漿造紙系統的產能利用率——如果你看冰暴之後的情況。

So if you look at post the ice storm, our mill system in North America is running the best it's run in at least a half a decade and maybe more than that. And so we're seeing the gains there.

所以如果你看冰暴之後，我們北美的製漿造紙系統運轉狀況，是至少半個十年、甚至可能更久以來最好的。因此我們正在看到那裡的改善成果。

And then supply chain and procurement. Procurement is really supplier by supplier. And these are the things where we have negotiated contracts and you're seeing how those contracts flow through. And then on supply chain, in particular, it's really around cube utilization. So if you think of as we are moving, as we are shutting down capacity, both on the box system and in the mill system, right?

然後是供應鏈與採購。採購基本上真的是逐一供應商來做。這些是我們已談妥合約的項目，你會看到這些合約如何逐步反映出來。而在供應鏈方面，特別是圍繞著裝載容積利用率（cube utilization）。所以如果你想像一下，當我們在移轉、當我們在關閉產能時——不論是在紙箱系統或製漿造紙系統，對吧？

You're having to reroute a lot of that. That has been more inefficient than I would like. And so there's an awful lot of focus there on driving cube utilization and planning of freight.

你就必須把很多貨流重新改道。這件事的效率比我希望的還要差。所以我們在提升裝載容積利用率與運輸規劃上投入了非常多的關注。

And just to add a little bit of color. I mean we're seeing -- when we talk about those cost-out initiatives, that's about, I guess, in the first quarter, it represented about $20 million of benefit.

再補充一點背景。我的意思是，我們看到——當我們談到那些降本（cost-out）計畫時，我想在第一季大約帶來了2,000萬美元的效益。

Correct.

沒錯。

So we're watching it. We're counting it, and we're seeing it, George. To your other question on price on Slide 13, I mean, I think it's simply that. I think it's simply just the timing and the flow through of how all the volatility and the pricing publications have come through over the last three months.

所以我們在追蹤它。我們在計算它，也看得到它，George。至於你另一個關於第13頁價格的問題，我的意思是，我認為就是這麼回事。我認為就是過去三個月所有波動與價格刊物（pricing publications）變動的時點與傳導所造成的。

Yes. So that's nothing beyond that. But that's really, George, that's counted contract by contract, right, kind of when that price comes through and you have -- as you know, there are two things that happen. You have noncontract business which you can move -- you're moving on price immediately negative and positive, unfortunately, right? You're trying to hold on when it's negative, like that $20 pop down, you're trying to hold on.

是的。所以沒有其他超出這些的因素。但那真的，George，是逐份合約去計算的，對吧？也就是那個價格何時反映出來；而且——如你所知，有兩件事會發生。你有非合約業務，你可以調價——不幸的是，價格下跌或上漲都會立刻反映，對吧？當價格是負面的時候你會想撐住，比如那次一下子跌了20美元，你會想撐住。

Thank goodness. We got -- that was rectified. But -- and then as the contracts come through, that really is a timing thing built in the mechanics of the contract, right?

謝天謝地。我們——那件事已經被修正了。但是——然後當合約逐步反映時，那其實就是合約機制裡內建的時點因素，對吧？

And so that $175 million that's in there, that is netting out the down [$20 million] and the plus -- now plus [$70 million,] so you can get the net [$50 million.] How that timing flows through contract by contract.

所以裡面的1.75億美元，是把下滑的[2,000萬美元]以及增加的——現在增加的[7,000萬美元]相互抵銷後，你就得到淨額[5,000萬美元]。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，Jefferies。

Despite the uncertain macro backdrop, encouraging here, I mean, your box shipments in North America pretty strong and you're expecting a pretty stable environment at large for the broader industry. If I heard you correctly earlier, you mentioned you were short on paper. So just curious, what are you seeing in the marketplace from a supply-demand standpoint. One of your bigger competitors talked about really tight market conditions, it led a price increase in June. So kind of help us tease that out just because we've been all anticipating this capacity closure, hasn't felt tight yet, but what do you think now as we head into a busier time.

儘管宏觀背景不確定，但這裡看起來令人鼓舞——我的意思是，你們北美的紙箱出貨量相當強勁，而且你們預期整體而言更廣泛的產業環境會相當穩定。如果我先前沒聽錯，你提到你們紙張供應偏短。所以我想請教，你們在市場上從供需角度看到什麼？你們一個較大的競爭對手談到市場狀況非常吃緊，並在6月帶動了一次漲價。所以請幫我們釐清一下，因為我們一直在期待這些產能關閉，但到目前為止似乎還沒感覺到緊俏；不過你們現在怎麼看，尤其是我們正要進入更忙的時段。

Yes. I think what we should do is just focus on the facts -- what the mechanics are of the market, actually, what's really happening. So we are modestly short on paper ourselves, right? So we're in the market buying some paper. What you just said, we've heard the same things, but I can't really comment on that.

是的。我認為我們應該做的是聚焦在事實——也就是市場的運作機制，實際上到底發生了什麼。所以我們自己確實是略微缺紙，對吧？所以我們在市場上買一些紙。你剛才說的那些，我們也聽到同樣的說法，但我不太方便評論。

The other thing that I think is noticeable is what's happening in the export markets because if you think about the export markets tend to be more volatile and they tend to be a leading indicator of what's happening in the marketplace. And the export market, you can see the facts, right? It's been really tight the way to say it. So we never comment on future pricing, things that haven't happened. But our view is that the market -- the paper market in the US is very tight.

另外一個我覺得很明顯的是出口市場正在發生的事，因為如果你想，出口市場通常波動更大，而且往往是市場變化的領先指標。而出口市場，你可以看到事實，對吧？用一句話說，就是一直非常吃緊。所以我們從不評論未來價格、也不評論尚未發生的事情。但我們的看法是：美國的紙張市場非常緊俏。

Okay. And you could confirm you haven't announced an increase yet for June in North America?

好的。那你可以確認一下，你們在北美還沒有宣布6月的漲價嗎？

We have not announced increase yet, but we don't really talk about future stuff, and we don't -- we avoid that.

我們尚未宣布漲價，但我們不太談未來的事情，而且我們——會避免談這個。

Okay. Fair enough. And then the (inaudible) here, Andy, and Lance, you guys have made a lot of tough decisions, and I respect what you guys are doing, but it's anything but easy from a macro standpoint, right? You've had a lot of (inaudible) last year with tariffs and the Middle East war. And with that backdrop, you've had to revise your outlook a few times, right?

好的。可以理解。另外這裡（聽不清），Andy 和 Lance，你們做了很多艱難的決定，我尊重你們正在做的事，但從宏觀角度來看，這絕對不容易，對吧？去年你們遇到很多（聽不清），包括關稅和中東戰爭。在那樣的背景下，你們不得不幾次修正你們的展望，對吧？

So I guess in terms of your approach going forward, just from a philosophy standpoint, how are you taking things? Are you giving yourself a little more cushion for some of the choppiness that most of us didn't expect? And then you called out reliability issues. I understand long term, you guys are making the investments to be more reliable and put up good results. But how do you hold your people accountable in the very short term to execute better?

所以我想就你們未來的做法，從理念層面來看，你們打算怎麼應對？你們是否會為我們大多數人沒預期到的波動，給自己留出更多緩衝？另外你們提到了可靠性問題。我理解從長期來看，你們正在投資以提升可靠性並交出好成績。但在非常短期內，你們如何讓你們的人承擔責任、把執行做得更好？

Well, let's talk about holding ourselves accountable first, right? So holding me accountable first. And I can't ask anybody else to do that unless I'm doing that to myself. And I think the really important thing here, right, is yes, Phil. If you'd asked me two years ago, I'm coming up on my two-year anniversary, if on my bingo card was a global trade war, and bombing Iran, I would not have had those on the bingo card, right? And so -- but that's life. I get paid to deal with these realities.

好，我們先談談自我問責，好嗎？也就是先對我自己問責。除非我先對自己做到這一點，否則我無法要求任何人也這麼做。而我認為這裡真正重要的是，對，Phil。如果你兩年前問我——我快要到兩週年了——我的賓果卡上是否會出現全球貿易戰，以及轟炸伊朗，我不會把這些寫在賓果卡上，對吧？所以——但這就是人生。我領薪水就是要面對並處理這些現實。

And frankly, I think in terms of the magnitude of what our teams have done in Europe and the US. It's pretty awesome. And I give them a lot of credit in a really tough environment, right? Because with all that hard work that's happening with 20% of the paper capacity coming out -- our paper capacity coming out in North America, 10% to 15% of our box capacity coming out in North -- box footprint coming out of North America, redesigning the entire corporate structure changing IT infrastructure, changing the commercial aspects, the massive restructuring in Europe, right? If you just kind of look at that, it's a huge amount of work that has happened that has been eaten up by the macro pressures.

坦白說，就我們團隊在歐洲與美國所完成工作的規模而言，真的非常了不起。在如此艱難的環境下，我非常肯定他們的付出，對吧？因為在所有這些辛苦工作同時進行之際——北美我們的紙張產能削減了20%，北美的箱板產能削減了10%到15%——北美的箱板版圖縮減，重新設計整個公司架構、改造IT基礎設施、調整商業面向、歐洲的大規模重整，對吧？如果你把這些放在一起看，這是一個極其龐大的工作量，但卻被宏觀壓力所吞噬。

And the key thing here is to not lose focus on the strategy, right? We have three strategic pillars in this business. The first one is to drive an advantaged cost position, a superior customer experience is number two, and our relative market position is number three. And the great work that we're doing of the tough decisions on assets and unfortunately, how it impacts people's lives, we've had to do that for a singular reason, and that is to reinvest back in the business.

而這裡的關鍵是不要失焦於策略，對吧？我們這項業務有三大策略支柱。第一是打造具優勢的成本地位；第二是卓越的客戶體驗；第三是我們的相對市場地位。而我們在資產上所做的艱難決策，以及不幸地對人們生活造成的影響，我們之所以必須這麼做，只有一個原因：那就是把資金再投回業務。

And if you look at the reinvestments that we're doing back into the strategic assets of the business, I'll take the punches in the face that we've taken. What I'm not going to do is I am not going to back down on the strategy. And the reason I'm not going to back down the strategy is that the core of this business is a good structural business that can earn attractive returns on capital. It's d*** messy as we've gone through this, but we're doing the absolute right things. And so I'm going to stick with this, and we're going to drive through it. And I believe that the economics are there, and that's what we're working to.

如果你看看我們對業務策略性資產所做的再投資，我願意承受我們所挨的那些迎面重擊。但我不會做的是：我不會在策略上退縮。我之所以不會在策略上退縮，是因為這項業務的核心是一個結構良好的好生意，能夠賺取具吸引力的資本報酬。我們走過這段過程確實一團糟，但我們做的都是絕對正確的事。所以我會堅持下去，我們會把它推進到底。我相信經濟性是存在的，而這正是我們努力的方向。

So that's the accountability that fundamentally sits with me and it sits throughout the entire organization. And the bottom line is this, is if you don't want to do it, if you don't want to be part of it, this isn't a place for you, right? This is a place that we are here to win. We are here to win to drive returns on these assets, to have a great place to work, which starts with being a safe place to work and invest in this business throughout. And then -- but the bottom line is we haven't given ourselves enough breathing room on this with the macro.

所以，這份問責根本上由我承擔，也貫穿整個組織。而結論是：如果你不想做，如果你不想成為其中一份子，這裡就不適合你，對吧？這是一個我們要來贏的地方。我們要贏，是為了推動這些資產的報酬，打造一個很棒的工作場所——而這要從安全的工作環境開始——並在整個業務中持續投資。然後——但歸根結底是，在宏觀環境之下，我們沒有給自己留出足夠的喘息空間。

I mean, look, I couldn't have called the macro -- and I'll be the first one to say that our performance on a quarterly basis, I'm disappointed in the fact that we have missed numbers. That is not something I am used to doing, and it's not something I like doing.

我的意思是，你看，我不可能預測宏觀走勢——而且我會是第一個說：就季度表現而言，我對我們未達成數字感到失望。這不是我習慣做的事，也不是我喜歡做的事。

And so yes, we're trying to give ourselves more cushion. We're trying to give ourselves more cushion in there with what we have. But I'll admit, right, it is a tough macro environment that we're out against, but the plan that we have that we put in place, I believe in 100%, and I am 100% committed to it.

所以是的，我們正試著讓自己有更多緩衝。我們正試著在現有條件下，讓自己有更多緩衝空間。但我承認，對吧，我們面對的是艱難的宏觀環境；不過我們所制定並落實的計畫，我百分之百相信，而且我也百分之百承諾會堅持到底。

Thank you. Well, look, to close, I don't think I can say much more than I just said. So I want to thank everybody for your time and attention to IP. I want to thank our employees who are working their tails off to build a great business, and that's exactly what we're going to do. Thank you.

謝謝。那麼，最後，我想我也說不出比剛才更多的話了。所以我要感謝各位撥冗並關注IP。我要感謝我們的員工，他們拼命努力打造一家卓越的企業，而這正是我們要做的事。謝謝。

Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Paper's first-quarter 2026 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝各位參與International Paper 2026年第一季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷線。