International Paper Co (IP) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Paper second quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

早安，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加國際紙業 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mandy Gilliland, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係高級總監 Mandy Gilliland。女士，請您發言。

Thank you, Christa. Good morning and good afternoon, and thank you for joining International Paper's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。早安，下午好，感謝您參加國際紙業 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。今天早上的演講者是董事長兼執行長 Andy Silvernail 和高級副總裁兼財務長 Lance Loeffler。

There is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties.

我們的簡報的開頭包含一些重要訊息，其中包括某些法律免責聲明。例如，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出受風險和不確定性影響的前瞻性陳述。

These and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differ materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the US. Securities and Exchange Commission. We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to US.

這些因素以及其他可能導致或促成實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述有重大差異的因素可在我們向美國提交的新聞稿和報告中找到。證券交易委員會。我們也將提供某些非美國公認會計準則的財務資訊。將這些數字與美國進行核對。

GAAP financial measures is available on our website. Our website also contains copies of the second quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides. I will now turn the call over to Andrew Silvernail.

我們的網站上提供 GAAP 財務指標。我們的網站還包含第二季收益新聞稿和今天的簡報投影片的副本。現在我將電話轉給安德魯·西爾弗內爾 (Andrew Silvernail)。

Thanks, Mandy. Before we get into the details, I want to welcome you to the IR team. It's great to have you lead our Investor Relations efforts as the next step in your successful career. Now let's jump in. I'll begin on slide 3.

謝謝，曼迪。在我們討論細節之前，我想歡迎您加入 IR 團隊。很高興您能領導我們的投資者關係工作，這是您成功職涯的下一步。現在讓我們開始吧。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。

As we continue our transformational journey to our ambition of $6 billion in EBITDA by 2027, I want to speak to our strategy and the momentum we are gaining across the organization. There are three key messages we want you to take away today. One, our transformation is on track. Second quarter revenue was at our expectation, and we have confidence in closing the market share gap in North America this year even as the US EMEA markets remain soft.

隨著我們繼續進行轉型之旅，以實現 2027 年 EBITDA 達到 60 億美元的目標，我想談談我們的策略以及我們在整個組織中獲得的勢頭。今天我們希望您能了解到三個關鍵訊息。一是轉型發展步入正軌。第二季的營收符合我們的預期，儘管美國 EMEA 市場依然疲軟，但我們有信心今年縮小北美的市佔率差距。

Two, our cost performance in North American mill system and EMEA are not where we want them to be, but we have clear line of sight to improvements. Three, we are holding our 2025 EBITDA guidance with our commercial and cost improvement efforts taking hold.

二，我們在北美工廠系統和歐洲、中東和非洲地區的成本效益還沒有達到我們想要的水平，但我們有明確的改善方向。第三，我們將堅持 2025 年 EBITDA 指導方針，並努力推動商業和成本改進。

We will win at IP through our deployment of 80-20. More specifically, we'll win through great teams deploying 80-20 at the point of impact. We launched 80-20 a year ago, and we did the same at the close of the DS Smith acquisition.

我們將透過 80-20 的部署贏得 IP。更具體地說，我們將透過在衝擊點部署 80-20 的優秀團隊來贏得勝利。我們一年前推出了 80-20，在 DS Smith 收購結束時我們也做了同樣的事情。

EMEA has mobilized teams to deploy 80-20 by region, focusing on initiatives to accelerate significant synergies and profitable growth. Radical focus on the critical few is the key to our transformation. Momentum is picking up.

歐洲、中東和非洲地區已動員團隊按地區部署 80-20，重點關注加速顯著協同效應和獲利成長的舉措。徹底關注少數關鍵人物是我們實現轉變的關鍵。發展勢頭正在增強。

While our two regional packaging businesses are at different stages in this journey, they're both executing a similar framework to achieve our 2027 targets. In the second quarter, we started to see momentum build, and they will take flight in the second half of the year.

雖然我們的兩個區域包裝業務處於不同的階段，但它們都在執行類似的框架來實現我們的 2027 年目標。在第二季度，我們開始看到勢頭的增強，並將在下半年起飛。

I want to thank the EMEA team for their tremendous work in tackling the challenges involved in combining the two organizations. This includes the finalized required sale of five plants in France, Spain and Portugal to the [PON] Group announced earlier this month.

我要感謝 EMEA 團隊為應對兩個組織合併所面臨的挑戰所做的大量工作。其中包括本月稍早宣布的向[PON]集團最終出售位於法國、西班牙和葡萄牙的五家工廠的交易。

Our Packaging Solutions North America team has found the transformation journey since last year, and we're seeing accelerated momentum in our implementation. We're gaining traction and customers have noticed. In the last few months, I had the opportunity to meet with several large customers and they're excited about the things that we're working on.

我們的北美包裝解決方案團隊自去年以來就踏上了轉型之旅，並且我們看到實施過程中的加速勢頭。我們正在獲得關注，客戶也注意到了。在過去的幾個月裡，我有機會與幾位大客戶會面，他們對我們正在做的事情感到興奮。

They're experiencing improvements in service and quality. They appreciate the investments we're making to support their growth and they recognize the new international paper with a stronger customer-centric focus. This same sentiment is at the heart of our commercial gains in the second quarter as we continue to close the gas industry in North American packaging.

他們正在體驗服務和品質的改善。他們讚賞我們為支持其發展而進行的投資，並認可新的國際報紙更加重視以客戶為中心。隨著我們繼續關閉北美包裝領域的天然氣產業，同樣的情緒也是我們第二季商業收益的核心。

I've also visited our Lighthouse teams in Chicago and Atlanta during the second quarter, where I observed our strategy in action. They have incorporated 80-20 into daily management, and they are building stronger problem selling [muscles], which has resulted in improved reliability and cost reduction.

我還在第二季度訪問了位於芝加哥和亞特蘭大的燈塔團隊，觀察了我們的策略實施情況。他們把 80-20 原則融入日常管理中，並正在建立更強大的問題銷售[力量]，從而提高了可靠性並降低了成本。

The same focus on 80-20 is permeating the company both in operations and in our corporate functions. It is the engine to our strategy. Moving to slide 4. Let me start by sharing our current view of the markets in North America and EMEA. Industry demand in North America has been relatively stable, but softer than last year as economic uncertainty from tariffs continue to impact industrial production and box demand across the manufacturing sector.

同樣對 80-20 的關注也滲透到了公司的營運和企業職能。它是我們戰略的引擎。移至幻燈片 4。首先，我想分享我們對北美和歐洲、中東和非洲市場目前的看法。北美的工業需求相對穩定，但由於關稅帶來的經濟不確定性繼續影響整個製造業的工業生產和箱子需求，因此比去年有所疲軟。

Based on our order patterns through July, we expect industry box demand to remain stable in the third quarter with upside potential in Q4 if geopolitical tensions ease and economic activity improves. Our gas industry widened over the course of last year, peaking in the fourth quarter of 2024 when we shifted our portfolio to a more profitable mix.

根據我們截至 7 月的訂單模式，我們預計，如果地緣政治緊張局勢緩解且經濟活動改善，行業箱需求將在第三季度保持穩定，並在第四季度具有上行潛力。我們的天然氣產業在去年不斷擴大，並在 2024 年第四季達到頂峰，當時我們將投資組合轉向了更有利可圖的組合。

As we indicated in the Q4 call, we anticipated closing the gap to industry this year, that trend started in Q1 and improved as predicted by another 200 basis points in the second quarter. We expect our gas industry to close by the fourth quarter, largely attributed to known commercial wins that will ramp up in the second half of the year. Turning to EMEA.

正如我們在第四季度電話會議上所指出的，我們預計今年與行業的差距將縮小，這一趨勢始於第一季度，並如預期在第二季度進一步提高 200 個基點。我們預計我們的天然氣產業將在第四季度結束，這主要歸功於已知的商業勝利，這些勝利將在今年下半年增加。轉向 EMEA。

Due to the inconsistency of industry data in EMEA, the chart on the right-hand side is reflective of our EMEA box shipments on a year-over-year absolute basis. The weak market is a headwind for us with macroeconomic volatility in the region. While we're holding market share, box shipment slowed sequentially in the second quarter by approximately 1%, primarily driven by market softness in April and May.

由於 EMEA 地區的行業數據不一致，右側的圖表反映了我們 EMEA 地區箱體出貨量的年比絕對值。由於該地區宏觀經濟波動，市場疲軟對我們來說是一個阻力。雖然我們保持著市場份額，但第二季箱裝出貨量較上季下降了約 1%，這主要是由於 4 月和 5 月市場疲軟所致。

June volumes, however, showed signs of recovery, which has continued into July. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we anticipate a moderate increase in demand with fast-moving consumer goods seasonal growth in the third and fourth quarters.

然而，6 月的貿易量顯示出復甦的跡象，並且這種復甦一直持續到 7 月。展望下半年，我們預期需求將溫和成長，快速消費品將在第三季和第四季出現季節性成長。

The wildcard is the unpredictable and unresolved tariff negotiations, which continue to pose macroeconomic uncertainty. Moving to slide 5. Last quarter, we shared the commercial actions we are taking to achieve our 2025 run rate target of $600 million in our 2027 target of $1.1 billion. You can reference the list of first quarter commercial and cost-out actions in the appendix, and we'll continue to update the appendix slide each quarter to reflect our cumulative actions and momentum. Now let's take a look at our accomplishments in the second quarter.

不確定因素是難以預測且尚未解決的關稅談判，這繼續為宏觀經濟帶來不確定性。移至投影片 5。上個季度，我們分享了我們正在採取的商業行動，以實現 2025 年 6 億美元的運行率目標和 2027 年 11 億美元的目標。您可以參考附錄中第一季的商業和成本行動清單，我們將在每季繼續更新附錄投影片，以反映我們的累積行動和動能。現在讓我們來看看我們在第二季度所取得的成就。

In Packaging Solutions North America, we continue to make progress servicing our customers, on-time delivery improved from 92% in the fourth quarter of last year to 97% in the second quarter. We made investment announcements focused on growing and attractive markets. We continue executing to overserve our 80 customers, such as rolling out our One-to-Perfect service model.

在北美包裝解決方案部門，我們繼續在為客戶提供服務方面取得進展，準時交貨率從去年第四季的 92% 提高到第二季的 97%。我們發布了專注於不斷成長且有吸引力的市場的投資公告。我們將繼續為 80 位客戶提供超值服務，例如推出「一對一」服務模式。

This includes identifying actions required to achieve perfection on key metrics for our (inaudible) as customers. We're also increasing positions with large global accounts by collaborating across both packaging businesses.

這包括確定需要採取哪些行動才能使我們（聽不清楚）作為客戶的關鍵指標達到完美狀態。我們也透過兩家包裝公司的合作來提升與全球大客戶的合作關係。

In EMEA, with our combined team, we are refocusing our efforts on the most attractive customers, differentiating our go-to-market strategy and developing prospect plans to grow our position. And we are winning strategic accounts through our strong customer-centric culture at DS Smith. All in for the first half of the year, our actions account for a run rate of approximately $650 million. This trajectory reinforces our confidence that we are on our way to achieve our goal of $1.1 billion of commercial excellence benefits by 2027. Now I'm moving to slide 6.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們與合併後的團隊將把精力重新集中在最具吸引力的客戶身上，制定差異化的市場進入策略，並制定潛在計劃以提升我們的地位。我們透過 DS Smith 強大的以客戶為中心的文化贏得了策略客戶。就上半年而言，我們的行動總計實現約 6.5 億美元的營運金額。這一軌跡增強了我們的信心，我們正朝著實現 2027 年 11 億美元商業卓越效益的目標邁進。現在我轉到第 6 張投影片。

We to discuss our cost-out actions in the second quarter. In Packaging Solutions North America, we announced decisions to close four facilities, sell three facilities and exit a noncore business. As difficult disease decisions are, it is the right thing to do.

我們將討論第二季的成本削減行動。在北美包裝解決方案領域，我們宣布決定關閉四家工廠、出售三家工廠並退出非核心業務。儘管疾病決策很困難，但這是正確的做法。

Strategic decisions like these allow us to reduce complexity and minimize cost, which enables us to reinvest to build an advantaged cost position and enhance the customer experience. Last quarter, we communicated our goal of deploying the White House model to 75 plants by year-end.

此類策略決策使我們能夠降低複雜性並最大限度地降低成本，從而使我們能夠進行再投資以建立優勢的成本地位並增強客戶體驗。上個季度，我們傳達了到年底將白宮模式部署到 75 家工廠的目標。

We have now installed the model in 40 plants and continue to see productivity improvements as we optimize. We are also identifying opportunities in procurement to reduce spend across both packaging businesses. Importantly, we continue to struggle in our North American mill system. Year-to-date, we have left about $150 million of profit on the table due to reliability issues. We are hyper focused on this area for improvement.

我們現在已經將在 40 家工廠安裝該模型，並且隨著優化，生產率不斷提高。我們也正在尋找採購機會，以減少包裝業務的支出。重要的是，我們在北美工廠體系中繼續苦苦掙扎。今年迄今為止，由於可靠性問題，我們已經損失了約 1.5 億美元的利潤。我們高度重視這一領域的改進。

In EMEA, we have proposed to close five UK plants subject to consultation, which we believe will be worth approximately $25 million. We have also proposed to streamline our packaging business regional structure and consolidate 13 subregions into seven, essentially eliminating a layer of the organization.

在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們已提議關閉五家英國工廠，但需經過協商，我們認為這將價值約 2,500 萬美元。我們也提議精簡包裝業務區域結構，將 13 個子區域合併為 7 個，從而實質上減少一個組織層級。

The estimated cost of the regional and subregional reorganization in EMEA will be known once those plans are finalized and we begin consultations with the new proposed organization. With the combined first and second quarter cost out actions, we are nearing our goal of $600 million run rate by year-end, and we are on our way to achieve the $1.9 billion target for 2027.

一旦這些計劃最終確定並且我們開始與新提議的組織進行磋商，就會知道歐洲、中東和非洲地區區域和次區域重組的估計成本。結合第一季和第二季的成本削減措施，我們即將實現年底 6 億美元的運行率目標，並且正在朝著 2027 年 19 億美元的目標邁進。

We have accomplished a great deal this past year but we have much left to do. Our work is just beginning. And as you can see on slide 7, we have many more value drivers developing that will contribute to our performance on our transformational journey.

過去的一年我們取得了巨大的成就，但還有很多事情要做。我們的工作才剛開始。正如您在第 7 張投影片上看到的，我們正在開發更多價值驅動因素，這些因素將有助於我們在轉型之旅中的表現。

As an example, last month, we announced the expiration of a greenfield state-of-the-art sustainable packaging plant in Salt Lake City. We anticipate this investment will drive growth in an attractive market where we can leverage our strategic strengths.

例如，上個月，我們宣布位於鹽湖城的一座最先進的永續包裝綠地工廠將到期。我們預計這項投資將推動這個有吸引力的市場的成長，我們可以在這個市場中發揮我們的戰略優勢。

Moving forward, initiatives such as these will continue to be developed. We are committed to a relentless pursuit of commercial excellence and cost out in order to build a great company. So let's turn to our performance and outlook. Slide 8 serves as a reminder of how we will reference our businesses for financial reporting purposes, including the abbreviations of PSMA and PSMA for our packaging solutions businesses in each of those regions. Regarding our Global Cellulose Fibers business, the strategic review has progressed.

展望未來，此類舉措將持續發展。我們致力於不懈追求商業卓越並降低成本，以打造一家偉大的公司。那麼讓我們來談談我們的表現和展望。第 8 張投影片提醒我們如何在財務報告目的中引用我們的業務，包括在每個地區使用 PSMA 和 PSMA 的縮寫來表示我們的包裝解決方案業務。關於我們的全球纖維素纖維業務，策略審查已經取得進展。

There are no changes to our expected time line, and we remain committed to achieving the best value for the business. Now I'll share some highlights of our performance and then turn it over to Lance to walk through the details.

我們的預期時間表沒有變化，我們仍然致力於為企業實現最佳價值。現在我將分享我們表演的一些亮點，然後交給 Lance 來介紹細節。

I'm on slide 9. Second quarter results reflect higher revenue driven by a full quarter of DS Smith and strong price realization. Volume in the second quarter was seasonally higher in a stable demand environment in North America.

我在第 9 張投影片。第二季的業績反映出，受 DS Smith 整個季度的業績和強勁的價格實現的推動，收入有所增長。在北美穩定的需求環境下，第二季的銷售季節性成長。

However, we experienced lower volume and softer demand in EMEA. Last quarter, we noted that results were relatively low quality, and we expected Q2 to be much higher quality. That's exactly what happened. The modest sequential decline in EBITDA is primarily due to four things, one, Q1 had favorable nonrecurring items that did not repeat.

然而，我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的銷售量下降，需求疲軟。上個季度，我們注意到結果品質相對較低，我們預計第二季度的結果品質會更高。事實確實如此。EBITDA 環比小幅下降主要歸因於四個因素，第一，第一季的非經常性項目表現良好，且沒有出現重複。

Two, Q2 had unfavorable nonrecurring items and costs from our transformation efforts three, Q2 also accounted for a highest quarter of planned maintenance outages, four, while Packaging Solutions EMEA demand was soft, we also experienced a spike in fiber costs. Lance is going to walk you through the detail in a moment to bring clarity to the bridges and give you insights into the important Q3 sequential profit grant.

二、第二季度由於我們的轉型努力而產生了不利的非經常性項目和成本；三、第二季度也是計劃維護停機時間最多的一個季度；四、儘管包裝解決方案 EMEA 需求疲軟，但我們的纖維成本也出現了飆升。蘭斯 (Lance) 稍後將向您詳細介紹，以闡明橋樑並讓您深入了解重要的第三季度連續利潤授予。

Our free cash flow for the second quarter was $54 million. As a reminder, cash flow in the first quarter was negatively impacted by $670 million related to the investments in our transformation, including severance costs and DS Smith transaction costs, along with incentive compensation payout.

我們第二季的自由現金流為 5,400 萬美元。提醒一下，第一季的現金流受到與我們轉型投資相關的 6.7 億美元的負面影響，其中包括遣散費和 DS Smith 交易成本以及激勵性薪酬支出。

For the full year, we still expect to be in the range of $100 million to $300 million of free cash flow. As we look to the third quarter, we expect significantly higher earnings sequentially. This will be driven by higher volume and lower cost across all our business segments.

就全年而言，我們仍預期自由現金流將在 1 億至 3 億美元之間。展望第三季度，我們預期獲利將季比大幅成長。這將由我們所有業務部門的銷售增加和成本降低所推動。

Our commercial strategy is gaining momentum. We are closing the gap to industry in North America, and we will continue to strengthen as we onboard strategic wins. We also have fewer planned outages in North America, and we are accelerating 80-20 implementation as we move into the third quarter. With that, let me turn it over to Lance to provide more details about our second quarter performance and outlook.

我們的商業策略正在蓬勃發展。我們正在縮小與北美同行業的差距，隨著我們取得戰略勝利，我們將繼續加強實力。我們在北美的計畫停駛也減少了，隨著進入第三季度，我們正在加快 80-20 實施。接下來，請容許我把時間交給 Lance，讓他提供有關我們第二季業績和展望的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Andy. Turning to slide 10. Second quarter adjusted operating earnings per share was $0.20 as compared to $0.23 per share in the first quarter. Price and mix increased by $0.21 per share primarily driven by strong price realization in our Packaging Solutions North America business as well as continued realization of prior price index movement in GCF. Volume was flat overall.

謝謝，安迪。翻到第 10 張投影片。第二季調整後每股營業收益為 0.20 美元，而第一季為每股 0.23 美元。價格和組合每股上漲 0.21 美元，主要原因是我們的北美包裝解決方案業務價格強勁實現，以及 GCF 先前價格指數變動的持續實現。成交量總體持平。

In Packaging Solutions, our North America business experienced seasonally higher demand, which was offset by softer demand in EMEA as well as lower volumes in GCF primarily due to heavier outages in the second quarter.

在包裝解決方案方面，我們的北美業務經歷了季節性的高需求，但這被歐洲、中東和非洲地區的需求疲軟以及 GCF 銷量的下降所抵消，這主要是由於第二季度停駛嚴重造成的。

Operations and cost was unfavorable by $0.32 per share this quarter, primarily driven by nonrecurring favorable items from the first quarter and nonrecurring unfavorable items in the second quarter, including costs associated with our 80-20 strategic actions.

本季營運和成本每股虧損 0.32 美元，主要原因是第一季的非經常性有利項目和第二季的非經常性不利項目，包括與我們的 80-20 策略行動相關的成本。

I will cover the option cost variances in more detail by segment in a couple of slides. Maintenance outages were unfavorable by $0.16 per share. As Andy mentioned, we expect the second quarter to be our heaviest maintenance outage quarter for the year.

我將在幾張投影片中按部分更詳細地介紹期權成本差異。維修中斷導致每股損失 0.16 美元。正如安迪所提到的，我們預計第二季將成為今年維護中斷最嚴重的季度。

Overall, input costs for the quarter were favorable by $0.10 per share, primarily due to lower-than-anticipated energy costs. Corporate and other items were unfavorable by $0.16 per share, primarily driven by an extra month of interest expense associated with DS Smith debt, the non-repeat of favorable first quarter discrete tax items and an increased average share count due to the additional months in the DS Smith share conversion.

整體而言，本季的投入成本每股有利 0.10 美元，主要原因是能源成本低於預期。公司及其他項目每股虧損 0.16 美元，主要原因是與 DS Smith 債務相關的利息支出增加了一個月，第一季度有利的離散稅項目沒有重複，以及由於 DS Smith 股票轉換的額外月份導致平均股票數量增加。

Depreciation and amortization was favorable by $0.18 per share. This is primarily due to a nonrepeat of the accelerated depreciation from the Red River mill closure in the first quarter, partially offset by an additional month of DS Smith depreciation and as well as changes in estimates to the step-up depreciation as a result of our acquisition.

折舊和攤銷每股有利 0.18 美元。這主要是因為第一季度 Red River 工廠關閉導致的加速折舊沒有重演，但被 DS Smith 額外一個月的折舊以及我們收購導致的逐步折舊估計變化部分抵消。

And finally, earnings for the DS Smith legacy business included an additional month and was partially offset by soft demand and higher fiber costs in Europe and market-related downtime in North America, all of which accounted for a favorable $0.12 per share.

最後，DS Smith 傳統業務的收益包括額外一個月的收益，但部分被歐洲疲軟的需求和更高的光纖成本以及北美市場相關的停工所抵消，所有這些都帶來了每股 0.12 美元的有利收益。

Moving on to our Packaging Solutions North America second quarter results from slide 11. These results reflect the additional month of the DS Smith North America business as well as the benefit from our cost-out initiatives and commercial excellence actions, including the strong realization of prior price increases.

從第 11 張投影片開始介紹北美包裝解決方案第二季的業績。這些結果反映了 DS Smith 北美業務的額外月份以及我們的成本削減計劃和商業卓越行動的好處，包括先前價格上漲的強勁實現。

Our second quarter volume was seasonally higher sequentially and as Andy mentioned, we reduced our volume gap to market this quarter by 200 basis points. Planned maintenance outages were higher in the second quarter offset by lower input costs. Operations and costs were unfavorable sequentially, and I'll cover those details in the next slide.

我們第二季的銷售量比上一季有所成長，正如安迪所提到的，本季我們與市場的銷售差距縮小了 200 個基點。第二季計畫內維護停機時間增加，但投入成本降低抵銷了這一影響。營運和成本連續不利，我將在下一張投影片中介紹這些細節。

I'm on to slide 12. This will be our last quarter breaking out our DS Smith legacy business for Packaging Solutions North America results. Beginning next quarter, all of our financials will be reflected as one Packaging Solutions North America business.

我現在看到第 12 張投影片。這將是我們最後一個季度公佈 DS Smith 遺留業務在北美包裝解決方案的業績。從下個季度開始，我們所有的財務狀況將反映為一個北美包裝解決方案業務。

Price and mix in the second quarter was higher by $67 million, primarily due to strong realization from prior index movement, especially across local accounts. Price was also favorable due to geographic mix benefits in our export channels.

第二季的價格和組合上漲了 6700 萬美元，主要由於先前指數變動的強勁實現，尤其是本地帳戶。由於我們的出口通路具有地理組合優勢，價格也很優惠。

For the third quarter, we expect an incremental $10 million benefit from the prior price index movements. Volumes were seasonally higher in the second quarter, and we expect to see continuing growth in the third quarter as we ramp up our strategic wins.

對於第三季度，我們預計先前的價格指數變動將帶來 1000 萬美元的增量收益。第二季的銷售量季節性較高，隨著我們策略性勝利的加強，我們預計第三季將繼續成長。

Operations and costs were $119 million unfavorable sequentially, primarily driven by the non-repeat of favorable items we discussed in the first quarter, totaling approximately $60 million. In addition, the second quarter included unfavorable nonrecurring items of about $50 million, which included costs associated with footprint and business optimization actions, inventory revaluations and year-to-date employee benefit accounting true-ups. In addition, we experienced incremental costs from the natural gas curtailment at our Valliant mill, resulting in $18 million over two months.

營運和成本環比下降 1.19 億美元，主要原因是我們在第一季討論過的有利項目未能重複出現，總計約 6000 萬美元。此外，第二季還包括約 5,000 萬美元的不利非經常性項目，其中包括與足跡和業務優化行動、庫存重估和年初至今員工福利會計調整相關的成本。此外，由於 Valliant 工廠的天然氣削減，我們的成本在兩個月內增加了 1,800 萬美元。

The gas curtailment has continued through July and is expected to be resolved shortly. These unfavorable costs were offset partially by footprint optimization benefits from the Red River closure and other prior cost-out initiatives.

天然氣限產已持續整個七月，預計很快就會解決。這些不利的成本被紅河截流和其他先前的成本削減措施帶來的足跡優化效益部分抵消。

For the third quarter, we anticipate operations and costs to be favorable by $68 million due to the nonrepeat of unfavorable items in the second quarter cost-out actions and focused performance improvement. Planned maintenance outages were heavier in the second quarter, resulting in $39 million of higher costs, and we expect lower outage costs in the third quarter. Input costs were favorable in the second quarter due to lower energy and fiber costs.

對於第三季度，我們預計營運和成本將有利 6800 萬美元，因為第二季度的成本削減行動和重點績效改進中沒有重複出現不利項目。第二季計畫內維護停機次數較多，導致成本增加 3,900 萬美元，我們預計第三季停機成本將會降低。由於能源和纖維成本較低，第二季的投入成本較為有利。

However, we expect slightly higher energy costs for the third quarter. Depreciation expense was lower by $177 million in the second quarter, primarily due to the nonrepeat of the accelerated depreciation expense associated with the closure of our Red River mill, offset by a combination of an additional month of depreciation from the DS Smith North America assets and refinements to our DS Smith purchase price accounting estimates.

不過，我們預計第三季的能源成本將略有上升。第二季折舊費用減少了 1.77 億美元，主要原因是由於關閉 Red River 工廠導致的加速折舊費用沒有重複出現，但 DS Smith 北美資產額外一個月的折舊以及 DS Smith 購買價格會計估算的改進抵消了這一影響。

Adjusted EBITDA for DS Smith operations in North America was $5 million unfavorable, primarily driven by higher unabsorbed fixed costs due to market-related downtime and other nonrecurring items, offset by an additional month of earnings. Moving on to Packaging Solutions EMEA's second quarter results on slide 13. As a reminder, again, last quarter accounted for two months of DS Smith data.

DS Smith 北美業務的調整後 EBITDA 為 500 萬美元，主要由於市場相關的停工和其他非經常性項目導致未吸收的固定成本增加，但被一個月的額外收益所抵消。繼續查看幻燈片 13 上的 Packaging Solutions EMEA 第二季業績。再次提醒一下，上個季度佔了 DS Smith 兩個月的數據。

So second quarter results include an additional month in the sequential and year-over-year variances. Volume in the second quarter was softer than anticipated, reflecting ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. However, we saw encouraging signs of demand recovery in June, and we expect that momentum to continue into the third quarter. In the second quarter, we experienced a spike in fiber costs in April and May with limited supply driving up prices. Energy costs in the second quarter were favorable and provided some offset to the fiber cost run-up.

因此，第二季的業績在連續和年比差異方面又包括一個額外月份。第二季的交易量低於預期，反映出宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性。然而，我們在六月看到了需求復甦的令人鼓舞的跡象，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到第三季。在第二季度，4月和5月，纖維成本出現飆升，供應有限推高了價格。第二季的能源成本較為有利，對光纖成本的上漲提供了一定程度的抵銷。

We expect fiber prices to normalize in the third quarter. Adjusted EBIT was significantly impacted by the revision of purchase price accounting estimates related to our DS Smith acquisition. These estimates will continue to be revised over the balance of the year. Turning to slide 14. As discussed, this will be our last quarter for breaking out the DS Smith legacy results from our Packaging Solutions EMEA business.

我們預計纖維價格將在第三季恢復正常。調整後的息稅前利潤受到與 DS Smith 收購相關的購買價格會計估計修訂的顯著影響。這些估計數字將在今年餘下時間內繼續修訂。翻到第 14 張投影片。如所討論的，這將是我們從包裝解決方案 EMEA 業務中分拆出 DS Smith 遺留結果的最後一個季度。

Related to IP's legacy packaging system in EMEA sequentially. Price and mix in the second quarter was higher by $7 million due to the prior price index movement and higher external paper sales. Volume was lower in the second quarter given the expected seasonality of the fruits and vegetables segment in Morocco as well as overall soft demand. Operations and costs were $17 million unfavorable sequentially, primarily from the nonrepeat of our energy credit sales in the first quarter. Turning to depreciation for both business segments sequentially.

依序與 EMEA 地區的 IP 遺留封裝系統相關。由於先前的價格指數變動和外部紙張銷售額增加，第二季的價格和產品組合上漲了 700 萬美元。由於摩洛哥水果和蔬菜市場的季節性以及整體需求疲軟，第二季的銷售量較低。營運和成本環比下降 1700 萬美元，主要原因是第一季我們的能源信用銷售沒有重複。依序討論兩個業務部門的折舊。

As we just discussed, the major driver of the second quarter results is primarily due to an additional month of depreciation and revisions to the DS Smith purchase price accounting estimates. Finally, the adjusted EBITDA contribution from our legacy DS Smith operations in EMEA were $64 million, primarily driven by the benefit of a full three months of earnings in the second quarter.

正如我們剛才討論的，第二季業績的主要驅動因素主要是額外一個月的折舊和對 DS Smith 採購價格會計估計的修訂。最後，我們原有的 DS Smith 在 EMEA 地區的業務調整後的 EBITDA 貢獻為 6,400 萬美元，這主要得益於第二季整整三個月的獲利。

Sales price increased realization and lower energy costs, partially offset by softer demand and higher fiber costs. Now let's move to the third quarter outlook, which reflects our combined entity. We expect price and mix to increase by approximately $25 million due to price realization from prior index movements.

銷售價格實現增加且能源成本降低，但被需求疲軟和纖維成本上升部分抵消。現在讓我們來看看反映我們合併後實體的第三季展望。由於先前指數變動帶來的價格實現，我們預計價格和組合將增加約 2500 萬美元。

Looking at volume in the third quarter, we expect an increase in approximately $24 million, primarily driven by a moderate improvement in overall demand and confirmed strategic wins. We expect operations and costs to benefit from approximately $8 million of favorable cost-out improvements related to our 80-20 implementation.

從第三季的交易量來看，我們預計交易量將增加約 2,400 萬美元，這主要得益於整體需求的適度改善和確認的策略勝利。我們預計，與我們的 80-20 實施相關的有利成本降低改善將使營運和成本受益約 800 萬美元。

And lastly, we anticipate lower fiber costs for a sequential benefit to input costs of approximately $10 million. Now turning to our GCF business on slide 15. Earnings and volume were lower sequentially due to increased outages but partially offset with higher sales price realization and favorable input costs.

最後，我們預計纖維成本將下降，為投入成本帶來約 1,000 萬美元的連續收益。現在轉到投影片 15 上的 GCF 業務。由於停駛次數增加，收益和銷售量環比下降，但銷售價格實現上漲和投入成本有利，部分抵消了這一影響。

As I turn to slide 16, a price and mix in the second quarter was higher sequentially by $30 million, primarily due to price realization from prior price indexes. In the third quarter, we expect a reduction of $36 million primarily due to the nonrepeat of energy credit sales that were realized in the first half of the year.

當我翻到第 16 張投影片時，第二季的價格和組合環比增加了 3,000 萬美元，這主要是由於先前價格指數的價格實現。我們預計第三季將減少 3,600 萬美元，主要原因是上半年實現的能源信用銷售沒有重複。

Volumes were lower in the second quarter, primarily due to a higher outage schedule and we expect volume to increase in the third quarter with fewer outages. Operations and costs were $18 million unfavorable sequentially primarily due to the timing of spend related to the turbine work. We anticipate continued mill reliability improvement in the third quarter.

第二季的產量較低，主要是因為停電時間較長，我們預期第三季產量將會增加，因為停電次數會減少。營運和成本環比下降 1800 萬美元，主要原因是與渦輪機工作相關的支出時間表不當。我們預計第三季工廠的可靠性將持續提高。

Planned maintenance outages were heaviest in the second quarter, resulting in $37 million of higher costs. With more than 80% of our outages occurring in the first half of the year, we're expecting higher overall quarterly earnings in the third quarter.

計畫內維護停工在第二季最為嚴重，導致成本增加 3,700 萬美元。由於我們 80% 以上的停電都發生在上半年，我們預計第三季的整體季度收益將會更高。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Andy. Andy?

說完這些，讓我把電話轉回給安迪。安迪？

Thanks, Lance. Now we're moving on to slide 17. As I mentioned earlier, we've accomplished a great deal in the first half of the year, but we have more to do. But there our Packaging Solutions businesses with the momentum we've made and the actions we continue to take, our run rate in the second half of the year, excluding GTF, is approximately $3.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA. Entering the second half of the year, we have momentum from our actions to drive substantial cost out and meaningful growth from our commercial wins.

謝謝，蘭斯。現在我們來看第 17 張投影片。正如我之前提到的，我們在上半年取得了很大成就，但我們還有很多工作要做。但是，憑藉我們包裝解決方案業務所取得的進展和我們繼續採取的行動，我們下半年的運作率（不包括 GTF）調整後 EBITDA 約為 38 億美元。進入下半年，我們採取行動，推動大幅降低成本，並透過商業勝利實現有意義的成長。

This positive momentum keeps us on track to the goals we laid out at our Investor Day in March. I'm on Slide 18. We've covered a lot of ground today, and I'm encouraged by the progress we're making on our transformational journey.

這種積極的勢頭使我們朝著三月投資者日所製定的目標前進。我在第 18 張投影片。今天我們已經討論了很多內容，我們在轉型之旅中的進展令我感到鼓舞。

We're driving a winning mindset within the company and our teams are relentlessly focused on deploying 80-20 at the point of impact to deliver excellence for our customers, our shareholders and our team. With that, let's go ahead and take questions.

我們正在公司內部推動一種成功思維，我們的團隊堅持不懈地專注於在關鍵時刻部署 80-20，為我們的客戶、股東和團隊提供卓越的服務。好了，我們開始回答問題吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Thank you and thanks for the comprehensive review. And a lot of it all comes together for -- I guess the one question that I have is the mill reliability issues. As you're taking this journey, that's also incredibly important, and you've been there now a year plus. What do you think sort of holding up getting as much progress as perhaps you certainly, I would have hoped to have seen and what's going to sort of get us there to have no reliability issues pop up again?

謝謝您，感謝您的全面評論。所有這些因素綜合在一起，我想我唯一的問題就是工廠的可靠性問題。當你踏上這段旅程時，這也非常重要，你已經走了一年多了。您認為是什麼阻礙了我們取得您期望的進展，又是什麼讓我們能夠不再出現可靠性問題？

Yeah, Mark. So first of all, so the mill reliability issues that we're dealing with are not new, right? I think that's the first thing. These are things that have been building for a lot of years from the underinvestment that we've been talking about really since this time last year and we have started to ramp up.

是的，馬克。首先，我們處理的工廠可靠性問題並不是什麼新問題，對嗎？我認為這是第一件事。這些都是多年來由於投資不足而不斷累積的成果，我們從去年這個時候就開始談論這個問題，現在我們已經開始加大投入。

So as an example, with our decisions around Red River and a number of the converting assets, we are redeploying capital that was being spent elsewhere into assets that frankly didn't have a competitive advantage into assets that should and do have a competitive advantage over time.

舉個例子，透過圍繞 Red River 和一些轉換資產做出的決策，我們將原本花在其他地方的資本重新部署到坦率地說沒有競爭優勢的資產上，而這些資產應該而且確實會隨著時間的推移具有競爭優勢。

And so Mark, this is a lot of really tough basics. It's foundational stuff of investing back into the mills at the rate that they really need long term. and having assets that really do have long-term strategic advantage and are going to be in the top half of the top quartile in terms of cost and performance. And so that's what it really is. If you look at the work as an example, we did in Mansfield, we've done in Mansfield this year.

所以馬克，這其中有很多非常困難的基礎知識。這是以工廠真正需要的長期速度重新投資的基礎，並且擁有真正具有長期戰略優勢的資產，並且在成本和性能方面將處於前四分之一的上半部分。事實確實如此。如果你以我們在曼斯菲爾德所做的工作為例，我們今年已經在曼斯菲爾德完成了。

We talked about this in the past, we had a major outage that was driven by a lack of investment from really a decision five years ago and we can't have that. And so we're going to battle that, Mark. And when I mean that, it's a consistent investment and focus on those strategic assets that matter is exiting assets that don't have a long-term strategic perspective and redeploying those resources, people and money back into the system. So this is going to be a very specific kind of, just chopping wood. You've got to go at it quarter after quarter, month after month, week after week, day after day to make those improvements.

我們過去討論過這個問題，我們曾發生過一次重大停電事故，這是由於五年前的一個決定導致的投資不足造成的，我們不能再經歷這樣的事情了。所以我們要與之鬥爭，馬克。我所說的「持續投資」指的是持續投資並專注於那些重要的策略資產，即退出那些沒有長期策略眼光的資產，並將這些資源、人員和資金重新部署到系統中。所以這將會是一種非常特殊的砍柴方式。你必須第一季又一季、一月又一月、一週又一週、日復一日地努力才能取得這些進步。

It is not rocket science. So what's happening here is nothing kind of unique. It is about the basics of fundamental execution and investment back into the right assets.

這並不是什麼火箭科學。所以這裡發生的事情並沒有什麼特別之處。它是關於基本執行和重新投資正確資產的基礎。

Okay. Very much appreciate that. Just one quick one. Just can you remind us of the GCF time line? I think you mentioned you're still kind of on track. What was the time line again?

好的。非常感謝。只需一個快速的。您能提醒我們一下 GCF 時間表嗎？我想您提到您仍然在正軌上。時間軸又是什麼？

Our goal was to close it by the end of the year and so that's our goal. So we are well into the process, and there's no reason to believe that, that won't be the case.

我們的目標是在今年年底前完成它，這就是我們的目標。因此，我們已經進入了這一進程，並且沒有理由相信，情況不會如此。

Super. Thanks very much.

極好的。非常感謝。

Thank you, Mark.

謝謝你，馬克。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Thanks very much, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for all the details, guys, and for taking my question. The first question, there's obviously a big jump in earnings 2Q to 3Q. And as we look at it, North American GCF, it's really in ops and outages. In Europe, it's really on commercial conditions. And as you were talking right now, you're working through your chopping wood on the operations issues.

非常感謝大家。早安.謝謝你們提供的所有詳細信息，也感謝你們回答我的問題。第一個問題，第二季至第三季的收益顯然大幅成長。正如我們所看到的，北美 GCF 確實處於運行和中斷狀態。在歐洲，這確實與商業條件有關。正如您現在所說的，您正在努力解決營運問題。

Do you feel more comfortable about the outlook 3Q to 2Q four North America because at least it's controllable relative to Europe, which is commercially driven and sort of subject to what's going on in the market. Or not -- And how do you have to think about that? Relatedly, where is EMEA now slotting in terms of your EBITDA guidance, at one point, it was $900 million to $1.1 billion. Is that still the goal? How is that shift?

您是否對北美第三季至第二季的前景感到更放心，因為至少相對於歐洲而言它是可控的，而歐洲是由商業驅動的，並且受市場狀況的影響。或者不是——您該如何看待這個問題？與此相關的是，就您的 EBITDA 指導而言，EMEA 目前處於什麼位置？一度為 9 億美元至 11 億美元。這還是我們的目標嗎？這種轉變怎麼樣？

And do you have a view on GCF as well, recognizing that you're going to hopefully close the process at the end of the year.

您對 GCF 有什麼看法嗎？您是否希望在年底完成這項進程？

George, there's a lot in there. I think I heard three things. And so if I miss it, please come back to me so Lance will help me out here. So first, yes, I feel better about North America for a couple of different reasons. One, we've had our arms around it longer.

喬治，裡面有很多東西。我想我聽到了三件事。所以如果我錯過了，請回來找我，這樣 Lance 就會幫助我。首先，是的，由於幾個不同的原因，我對北美感覺更好。一是我們已經對此有較長時間的了解。

And I think we've really dialed it in there. I think the work that Tom Hamic and team are doing in North America commercially is going very well. And so when you look at the back half of the year, I think probably the most important things that we're going to -- that we're really seeing right now is this transition from consistently losing share over a long period of time to getting to parity to winning share.

我認為我們確實已經做到了這一點。我認為湯姆·哈米克和他的團隊在北美開展的商業工作進展非常順利。因此，當你回顧今年下半年時，我認為我們將要看到的最重要的事情——我們現在真正看到的是從長期持續失去份額到達到平價並贏得份額的轉變。

I think that is really critical and we're absolutely seeing that. And so everything that -- forget about the market for a second, just -- and what we can control, that is going the right way and the hard work that's gone into that is going really well.

我認為這確實至關重要，而且我們也確實看到了這一點。所以，所有那些——暫時忘記市場——以及我們能夠控制的事情，都在朝著正確的方向發展，為此付出的艱苦努力也進展順利。

Second, we really launched 80-20 very early on in the converting side. And to be fair, again, Tom and team, when Tom was running just the converting business, they really started the year before I joined in tackling what they were calling melt at the time, which was really the reliability and performance issues that were happening within converting.

其次，我們在轉換方面很早就推出了 80-20。公平地說，當湯姆只經營轉換業務時，他和他的團隊實際上在我加入的前一年就開始著手解決當時他們所謂的「融化」問題，這實際上是轉換過程中出現的可靠性和效能問題。

And again, just like I just talked about with Mark's question, had been going on for years, right, under investment for years and literally in a two-year period of time, we've gone from a dramatically underperforming set of assets to one that is performing quite well and winning back share. So -- and I got to give Tom and team a lot of credit. I work started way before I ever joined.

再說一次，就像我剛才談到馬克的問題一樣，這種情況已經持續了很多年，對吧，多年來一直處於投資不足的狀態，實際上在兩年的時間裡，我們已經從一組表現極差的資產轉變為一組表現相當不錯的資產，並贏回了市場份額。所以——我必須給予湯姆和他的團隊很大的讚揚。我的工作早在我加入之前就已開始。

And so I feel really good about the commercial side and the converting ops and cost side. The mill side, to Mark's question, and connected to your question, we do have control of it. But we're still early in that journey, right? But I believe, and we've demonstrated in the converting side and at Mansfield. Which, by the way, to be clear, we don't have that completely wrestled to the ground.

因此，我對商業方面、轉換操作和成本方面感到非常滿意。工廠方面，對於馬克的問題以及與您的問題相關的問題，我們確實對其進行了控制。但我們仍處於這段旅程的早期階段，對嗎？但我相信，而且我們在轉換方面和曼斯菲爾德已經證明了這一點。順便說一句，要明確說明的是，我們還沒有完全解決這個問題。

But we made a huge amount of progress that we know how to do this. And so -- but that stuff is in our control. You mentioned the outages and things like that. And also, as you know, the momentum, as you're driving cost out of a process-related business, this is unlike my world at IDEXX, right? So my world at IDEXX, things happened in relatively short cycles.

但我們取得了巨大的進步，我們知道如何做到這一點。所以——但這些都在我們的控制範圍內。您提到了停電和類似的事情。而且，如您所知，當您從與流程相關的業務中降低成本時，這與我在 IDEXX 的世界不同，對嗎？所以在我所在的 IDEXX 的世界裡，事情發生的週期相對較短。

You decided to close a business, exit a business, things showed up and flow through your P&L relatively quickly from the scale and the time lines that are simply required in this business, you don't have a choice of kind of how you go about those changes.

您決定關閉一家企業、退出一家企業，從該企業所需的規模和時間線來看，事情會相對較快地出現在您的損益表中，您無法選擇如何進行這些變更。

It takes longer to come in and show up in the results. And so we've got to get that engine moving within the mill system in North America. So -- but with that, yes, I feel I have a lot of confidence in what's going on in North America. In Europe, we have launched 80-20.

需要更長的時間才能進入並顯示結果。因此，我們必須讓這個引擎在北美的工廠系統內運作起來。所以——但是，是的，我對北美正在發生的事情很有信心。在歐洲，我們已經推出了80-20。

We started, as I mentioned in the last quarter, we started out of the gate right out of the gates and Tim Nichols, who's running that over there. He -- [Stefano Rossi] Paul Brown, the leaders over there. They have grabbed on to this. And it's a big deal. If you look at what we've already announced in the UK.

正如我在上個季度提到的那樣，我們一開始就從大門出發，而蒂姆·尼科爾斯 (Tim Nichols) 則負責那裡的運營。他－[Stefano Rossi] Paul Brown，那邊的領導人。他們抓住了這一點。這是一件大事。如果你看看我們在英國已經宣布的消息。

and the delayering in Europe, that's a really big deal. We have to move fast. We know we have to move fast. I know people are scared about transformational change in Europe. But we know how to do it.

而歐洲的精簡機構，這確實是件大事。我們必須迅速行動。我們知道我們必須迅速行動。我知道人們對歐洲的改變感到恐懼。但我們知道如何做。

I've done it many times in my past. I know Lance has done many times in his past. We know how to get this done. But it will be bumpy. Don't get me wrong, right?

我過去已經做過很多次了。我知道蘭斯過去已經做過很多次了。我們知道如何完成這件事。但這將是坎坷的。別誤會我的意思吧？

This is tough work to be done. And so you're right, the sequential improvement in quarter-to-quarter in Europe is really going to be driven on that commercial side, right? Because we don't have underlying drivers that are moving the needle. Those are going to show up 6 and 12 months from now. And that's just the lag time that's really required.

這是一項艱鉅的工作。所以您說得對，歐洲季度環比成長確實是由商業方面推動的，對嗎？因為我們沒有推動這項進程的潛在驅動因素。這些將在 6 個月和 12 個月後顯現出來。而這正是真正需要的延遲時間。

So that's question one. All right. Question two?

這是第一個問題。好的。第二個問題？

Outlook for EMEA and GCF.

EMEA 和 GCF 的展望。

Yeah. So outlook for EMEA. Look, I think we expected -- we believed that the trough was in the early part of the second quarter. June suggested that, that was so in July is suggesting that is so also. And so we feel good about that.

是的。因此，EMEA 的前景是這樣的。看，我想我們預料到了——我們相信低谷是在第二季初。六月暗示如此，七月也暗示如此。因此我們對此感到很高興。

But you're absolutely right to question it because we are subject to what's going on in that marketplace. And so there's going to be more variability that's out of our control there. There's no doubt about it. And here's what about $50 million, Lance? In total between those two things, those two pieces of volume and price coming through.

但你對此提出質疑是完全正確的，因為我們要關注市場上發生的事情。因此，我們無法控制的變化將會越來越多。毫無疑問。那麼 5000 萬美元怎麼樣，蘭斯？總的來說，這兩件事，就是成交量和價格的結合。

But so yes, you've hit that on the head. But when I net it together and I look at that ability to get into that $1 billion run rate range, right? We feel good about that. It's not -- look, there's no slam dunks in what we're doing now. I mean this is a tough money work, and we all know it getting into it, and you guys have all been on the journey with us.

但是是的，您確實說對了。但是當我把它們加在一起並看看是否能夠達到 10 億美元的運行率範圍時，對嗎？我們對此感到很高興。這不是——你看，我們現在所做的事情並不是什麼輕而易舉的事。我的意思是，這是一項艱難的賺錢工作，我們都知道這一點，你們都和我們一起走過了這段旅程。

We know how to do transformation, but it is tough and it's not linear. But I will say the traction both in North America and in Europe, we're making progress. GCF look, the process -- if you kind of go back in time, we made the decision last fall a lot of carve-out work to get it as a stand-alone business and to be able to make sure we're presenting that appropriately. The markets have been tough, right? This is a tough market around this in terms of the financing markets and the bumpiness in the macroeconomic environment, and we're committed to getting the value for that business.

我們知道如何進行轉型，但這很艱難，而且不是直線性的。但我要說的是，我們在北美和歐洲都取得了進展。GCF 看看這個過程——如果你回顧過去，我們去年秋天做出了決定，進行了大量剝離工作，以使其成為一個獨立的業務，並確保我們能夠適當地呈現它。市場一直很艱難，對吧？從融資市場和宏觀經濟環境的波動來看，這是一個艱難的市場，我們致力於為該業務創造價值。

But we want to be a packaging business. Look, that's what this is. I said this kind of this time last year or maybe into the fall. The idea of being a pure-play packaging business, I think, is very exciting, right? The stability of that business over time, the predictability of that over time, even with all the noise that we have right now, that's an awfully good business to be in, and that's where we're going.

但我們想成為包裝企業。瞧，這就是事實。我去年這個時候就說過這種情況，或者可能到秋天。我認為，成為純粹的包裝企業的想法非常令人興奮，對嗎？即使現在有很多噪音，但這項業務長期的穩定性、可預測性仍然是一個非常好的業務，這就是我們的目標。

Okay. So Andy, Europe may be pushed to the right, but you still feel good about the $1 billion summary on that? Would that be fair?

好的。那麼安迪，歐洲可能被推向右翼，但你仍然對 10 億美元的總結感到滿意嗎？這樣公平嗎？

What do you mean push to the right?

向右推是什麼意思？

So the $900 million to $1.1 billion, is that operable this year?

那麼這9億到11億美元今年可以操作嗎？

You're talking Europe? Are you talking Europe, George? My billion what I was referring to is not pushed the right. My $1 billion was for $1 billion run rate in EBITDA for the company, right, in the third quarter. In Europe, yes, Europe, we're basically holding. That range that we talked about at the Investor Day, we're holding that. Sorry, I confused that. It's my fault.

您說的是歐洲嗎？喬治，你說的是歐洲嗎？我的十億我指的是沒有推對。我的 10 億美元是為該公司第三季的 EBITDA 實現 10 億美元的運行率。在歐洲，是的，在歐洲，我們基本上維持了現狀。我們在投資者日討論的那個範圍，我們正在堅持那個範圍。抱歉，我搞混了。這是我的錯。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. Is it possible to say what July box volumes have looked like in North America and Europe as you start off the quarter? And then you obviously have a lot of customers in a lot of industries. But I'm curious when you kind of think about customer inventories, is there a sense that there could be some restocking in the second half of the year among your customers or just any kind of general observations there.

早安.在本季開始時，您能否透露一下北美和歐洲七月份的箱量情況？顯然，您在許多行業都擁有很多客戶。但我很好奇，當您考慮客戶庫存時，是否感覺到您的客戶可能會在下半年進行一些補貨，或者只是有任何一般性的觀察。

Yeah. Thank you. So Anthony, when you look at the market, right now, it's relatively flat sequentially. Some of you may have seen the Wall Street Journal article that talked about the kind of the weirdness of the GDP numbers that are out there and the puts and takes and what's that 3% real number. I think you've got to dig down for our business and kind of look at what I call the good economy, right?

是的。謝謝。安東尼，當你觀察現在的市場時，你會發現它比上一季相對穩定。你們中的一些人可能已經看過《華爾街日報》的文章，其中討論了 GDP 數據的奇怪之處、投入和產出，以及 3% 的實際數字是多少。我認為你必須深入研究我們的業務，看看我所說的良好經濟，對嗎？

So industrial production is a decent proxy. It's not the overall proxy, but it's a decent proxy. And that's still pretty money, right? Housing has been just a mass and a lot -- that drives a big chunk of our overall business in this space, and that's been a mess for a while. And so that, to me, is a real good guy going forward if you kind of think through over time, that's an opportunity, but we don't expect anything in the near term to happen.

因此工業生產是一個不錯的指標。它不是整體代理，但它是一個不錯的代理。這仍然是一筆不小的錢，對吧？住房一直是我們在這個領域的整體業務中的一個重要組成部分，而且這種情況已經持續了一段時間。所以，對我來說，這是一個非常好的進步，如果你從長遠角度考慮，這是一個機會，但我們不希望在短期內發生任何事情。

So the goods economy is still pretty constrained. There's no doubt about it. Specific to your question about different parts of the marketplace, I mentioned housing, that's remained soft. It does feel like everybody is pretty cautious, right? So people are pretty cautious with the caveat there's a lot of noise about kind of people rushing to the gates before the tariffs, the kind of the crazy tariff stuff early on.

因此，商品經濟仍然受到相當大的限制。毫無疑問。具體到您關於市場不同部分的問題，我提到了住房，住房市場仍然疲軟。看起來大家都很謹慎，對吧？因此，人們對警告非常謹慎，因為有很多人在關稅實施前爭先恐後地搶購，早期還有這種瘋狂的關稅措施。

And then since then, everyone's kind of feeling this out, there's no doubt about it. So people have been pretty constrained in terms of net investment spending. People have been pretty constrained in terms of inventory. In terms of there being a big restocking, I don't know, right? There's no evidence that there's going to be some massive restocking.

從那時起，每個人都開始感受到這一點，這是毫無疑問的。因此，人們的淨投資支出受到相當大的限制。人們的庫存受到很大限制。至於是否會大規模補貨，我不知道，對吧？沒有證據顯示將會進行大規模補貨。

I think one of the great lessons for everybody out of the COVID era was around supply chain. I think people got a lot better around supply chain, a lot tighter around supply chain. We certainly have other people have. And so I think you're going to see less of that unless you get a really big step-up in economic activity, and then that will constrain the system. I think -- if I kind of think about the -- going into the third and the fourth quarter, maybe the first half of next year, there are a couple of really big things as I think about the external market that are on my mind, right?

我認為，新冠疫情時代為每個人帶來的最大教訓之一就是供應鏈。我認為人們在供應鏈方面取得了巨大進步，供應鏈變得更加緊密。我們肯定也有其他人有。因此我認為，除非經濟活動真正大幅增加，否則這種情況不會再發生，而這將對經濟體系造成限制。我想——如果我考慮一下——進入第三季度和第四季度，也許是明年上半年，當我考慮外部市場時，我會想到一些非常重要的事情，對嗎？

One is around the macroeconomic noise, whether it's geopolitics or trade tariffs, et cetera, is I believe it's kind of -- there's some pretty digital events here that we don't simply control. One is we clarify some of this stuff. There's a lot of pent-up investment around the industrial world.

一個是圍繞著宏觀經濟噪音，無論是地緣政治還是貿易關稅等等，我相信這是一種——這裡有一些我們無法簡單控制的數位事件。一是我們澄清一些這方面的內容。工業界有大量被壓抑的投資。

There is a ton of pent-up investment and so I think there's a relatively big upside. If that takes off, then that will constrain short-term supply chains, and you could see that bump in inventory restocking as people really try to catch and maybe it's not even inventories restoring just catching the marketplace.

有大量被壓抑的投資，因此我認為有一個相對較大的優勢。如果這種情況發生，那麼就會限制短期供應鏈，你會看到庫存補充的激增，因為人們真的在努力趕上，甚至可能不僅僅是庫存恢復，只是趕上了市場。

I think that's legitimate. The downside scenario really is this continued moneyness and people holding back. But as I talk to my peers, as I talk to my old world and the kind of the pure industrial world, people are very cautious. They're holding back right now. So I think there's probably -- over the next couple of years, it feels to me like there's more upside than downside.

我認為這是合理的。不利的情況實際上是這種持續的貨幣主義和人們的抑制。但當我與同行交談時，當我與我的舊世界和純工業世界交談時，人們非常謹慎。他們現在正在退縮。因此我認為，在接下來的幾年裡，我覺得好處多於壞處。

In terms of the economy picking back up and getting out of this morass that we've actually been in -- if you look at it, once you get past that COVID bump, you're kind of four years into a pretty tough industrial environment. And so I see some upside there in the future.

就經濟復甦和走出我們實際上所處的困境而言——如果你看一下，一旦你度過了新冠疫情的衝擊，你就會進入一個相當艱難的工業環境四年。因此，我看到了未來一些好處。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then maybe just a related question. I mean, you talked about closing the gap with the industry on the box side and expecting to have that closed by 4Q. When you look at your confirmed business wins, is it possible to kind of share any observations in terms of -- are these customers IP has won back or existing customers that are giving you more business or maybe new to -- and are these longer run, shorter runs, larger customers, smaller customers? Just curious if there's any generalization in terms of how you're winning in the marketplace.

好的。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是一個相關的問題。我的意思是，您談到了縮小與盒子行業的差距，並希望在第四季度之前縮小差距。當您看到已確認的業務勝利時，您是否可以分享一些觀察結果 - 這些是 IP 贏回的客戶還是為您帶來更多業務或新業務的現有客戶 - 這些是長期的、短期的、較大的客戶還是較小的客戶？我只是好奇，對於你們如何在市場上獲勝，是否有任何概括。

Yeah. Look, I think, as I said before, this is a good news story. And when you -- when we kind of look back, I think we're in the future and you say, what were some of the really critical pivot points, I believe that this is going to be one of them.

是的。看，我認為，正如我之前所說，這是一個好消息。當我們回顧過去時，我想我們正處於未來，你會問，哪些是真正關鍵的轉折點，我相信這將是其中之一。

And the reason I say that the wins that we're starting to see that we believe are going to -- we know a bunch of them are going to show up here in the third and the fourth quarter. It's a combination of -- and I'm talking the North America specifically right now.

我之所以說我們開始看到勝利，是因為我們相信勝利將會到來——我們知道很多勝利將會在第三和第四季出現。這是多種因素的結合——我現在特別談論的是北美。

It's a combination of large national accounts who are really, really selective about moving business, right? They do not move business easily. It is not an easy thing for them to do to pick up some of these very large accounts, when they move, they test you hard and where we've been in that testing phase to demonstrate that we can do this, and the reason for those choices are typically around service and quality, right?

這是大型全國帳戶的組合，這些帳戶對於轉移業務非常挑剔，對嗎？他們不會輕易轉移業務。對他們來說，接手這些非常大的客戶並不是一件容易的事，當他們採取行動時，他們會對你進行嚴格的測試，而我們在測試階段就證明了我們可以做到這一點，而這些選擇的原因通常是圍繞服務和質量，對嗎？

Price -- as you've heard me say in the past, price is certainly an entry point when you're winning new business. But as you have business, when they choose to go, it typically starts with service and quality issues and then price becomes a factor when they actually really start looking.

價格—正如您過去聽我說過的那樣，價格無疑是您贏得新業務的切入點。但是當你有生意時，當他們選擇去的時候，通常首先考慮服務和品質問題，然後當他們真正開始尋找時，價格成為一個因素。

If you recall last year, we talked a lot about the premium that can be earned with great service and quality. And what I'll tell you is what we've seen in North America is that's very much true, right? When you are delivering for those customers your actual cost to their overall solution is relatively small and your criticality is very high.

如果您還記得去年，我們討論了很多關於透過優質服務和品質可以獲得的溢價。我想告訴你們的是，我們在北美看到的情況確實如此，對吧？當您為這些客戶提供服務時，您對他們的整體解決方案的實際成本相對較小，但關鍵性卻非常高。

And so as long as you are fair on pricing can really drive the service and quality, that's good news. And so we're seeing it at the large customer side. And very importantly, we've also had local wins, right? So we're seeing it in both places. And so that's exciting for us. It's early days, right? It's definitely early days.

因此，只要定價合理就能真正提高服務和質量，這是個好消息。我們在大客戶方面看到了這一點。而且非常重要的是，我們也取得了當地勝利，對吧？我們在兩個地方都看到了它。這對我們來說是令人興奮的。現在還為時過早，對吧？現在肯定還為時過早。

And if I'm in your guys' shoes here, the proofs in the pudding in the third and the fourth quarter, and our ability in the third quarter, continue to close that gap. We closed it by another 200 basis points. We land exactly where we said we were going to land in the second quarter. We believe we're going to close it substantially again in the third quarter. And then by the fourth quarter, I think we're on the other side of the ledger positively.

如果我站在你們的立場上，第三和第四節的實踐證明，以及我們在第三節的能力，將繼續縮小差距。我們又將收盤價提高了 200 個基點。我們在第二季度準確地實現了我們所說的目標。我們相信我們將在第三季再次大幅關閉該業務。到第四季度，我認為我們的業績將呈現正面態勢。

Okay, that, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的馬修麥凱勒 (Matthew McKellar)。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Just a follow-up on Mark's question about mill reliability. Is there an opportunity here to accelerate reinvestment in the mills with the band backdrop is still a bit soft? I recognize you probably can't pivot complex multiyear investment plans at a time. But could you speak to what degree of flexibility you have here?

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。這只是對馬克關於工廠可靠性問題的後續回答。在樂團背景仍然有點疲軟的情況下，是否有機會加速對工廠的再投資？我知道你可能無法一次調整複雜的多年投資計畫。但是您能說說這裡的彈性程度嗎？

Look, it's a great question, and it's a question that we are digging into a level of detail that's excruciating, right? And because to me, the mill reliability is not only about the $150 million. It is -- I mean that's a big deal. Don't get me wrong, because $300 million annualized, right? So it's a really big deal.

你看，這是一個很好的問題，而且這個問題值得我們深入研究，深入到極其痛苦的程度，對吧？因為對我來說，工廠的可靠性不僅關乎 1.5 億美元。這是——我的意思是這是一件大事。別誤會我的意思，因為年化價是 3 億美元，對吧？所以這確實是一件大事。

The bigger deal for me is I believe that, that is the gateway to a lot of financial performance, right? Because as you drive mill reliability, it allows you to move more business to highly strategic, highly efficient, effective, highly profitable assets.

對我來說，更重要的是，我相信這是實現大量財務表現的大門，對嗎？因為當您提高工廠可靠性時，它可以讓您將更多的業務轉移到高度策略性、高效、有效、高利潤的資產。

And so as we are able to do that, yes, that $300 million is there, but it's also what allows you to win that incremental business and bring it in and not bring it in to inefficient assets. And when you look at where profit and cash get lost in this business, it's a lot in that kind of morass. And so this is a big deal, obviously, for that $150 million first half, $300 million annualized, it's a really big deal for our overall success story.

因此，當我們能夠做到這一點時，是的，那 3 億美元是存在的，但它也能讓你贏得增量業務並將其帶入，而不是將其帶入低效的資產。如果你看看這個產業中利潤和現金的流失情況，你會發現很多利潤和現金都陷入了這種困境。因此，這顯然是一件大事，對於上半年 1.5 億美元、年化 3 億美元而言，這對我們的整體成功而言確實是一件大事。

And so we're right -- you guys are right to focus in on it. And believe me, we are very focused on it. And so the question of can we accelerate it? Boy, we are pushing hard. We're not going fast enough.

所以我們是對的——你們關注這一點是正確的。相信我，我們非常關注這一點。那麼問題是，我們能否加速這一進程？孩子，我們正在努力。我們進展不夠快。

It's not fast enough. The speed at which we have turned and converting, which really, to be honest, right, that was a two-year journey. If we're honest about where they would, that's a two-year journey. We're really about six months into the mill reliability journey. And a lot of that was just in the diagnosis of the issue.

速度不夠快。我們轉變的速度非常快，說實話，這是一段為期兩年的旅程。如果我們誠實地估計他們的目標，那將是一段為期兩年的旅程。我們真正進入工廠可靠性之旅已經六個月了。其中很多只是對問題的診斷。

And so the really hard work and the results that we've gotten have happened at a handful of mills, not the entire system. And so this is going to be -- we're going to work it. And there are really two things around accelerating that. One is you got to not put money into nonstrategic assets, right? There isn't enough money in the pot, and we're not going to come asking you guys for more of it to do that.

因此，我們真正艱苦的工作和所取得的成果只發生在少數幾家工廠，而不是整個系統。所以這將是——我們將努力實現它。實際上有兩件事可以加速這一進程。一是你不應該把錢投入非策略性資產，對嗎？錢不夠，我們也不會要求你們再提供更多的錢來做這件事。

We've got to fund this ourselves, we've got to be self-help. And so we've got to do that. And to do that, two things have got to happen. One, you got to not put money into nonstrategic assets, non-long-term assets. and you have to drive incremental benefits back into the system over the next couple of years.

我們必須自己籌措資金，我們必須自救。所以我們必須這麼做。為了實現這一點，必須做到兩件事。第一，你不能把錢投入非策略性資產、非長期資產，而且你必須在未來幾年內將增量收益重新投入系統。

And that if you look at our plan, if you go back to the March Investor Day, that's exactly what we laid out and it's exactly how we're doing. And it's -- look, we're $30 million to $50 million off where I would really hope to be. If you just kind of look at that, where are we in the second quarter were $30 million to $50 million off where we wanted to be for -- really driven by mill reliability. I didn't expect that we closed that $150 million this year. But by golly, we need to make progress, right?

如果你看一下我們的計劃，回顧一下三月的投資者日，你會發現這正是我們所製定的計劃，也是我們正在做的事情。而且 — — 你看，我們離我真正希望的目標還差 3,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元。如果你看一下，你會發現我們第二季的虧損比我們想要的少了 3,000 萬到 5,000 萬美元——這確實取決於工廠的可靠性。我沒有想到我們今年就完成了那 1.5 億美元。但是天哪，我們需要取得進步，對吧？

So we got to make progress in the third quarter, fourth quarter, first quarter, we just got to make progress quarter after quarter after quarter. And it's going to come with diverting that capital driving it back in and getting our best people working on the best assets.

因此，我們必須在第三季、第四季、第一季取得進展，我們必須一個季度又一個季度地取得進展。而這將伴隨著資本的轉移，將其帶回國內，並讓我們最優秀的人才在最優秀的資產上工作。

That's great. And then second for me, at the Investor Day, I think you talked about exiting some nonstrategic export markets -- could you please just update us on how far along you are in that process today versus your expected end state?

那太棒了。其次，對我來說，在投資者日，我認為您談到了退出一些非策略性出口市場——您能否向我們介紹一下目前這一進程進展如何，以及您預期的最終狀態？

Yeah. We're making progress. If you remember, I said this at the Investor Day and I've said this and I said it in the first quarter call, not all export is bad, right? You really have to look at it. There's a segment of that, that is highly strategic.

是的。我們正在取得進展。如果您還記得的話，我在投資者日上說過這個，並且在第一季電話會議上也說過這個，並不是所有的出口都是壞的，對吧？你確實必須看一下。其中有一部分是高度戰略性的。

And what I mean by that is the customer really values it and it's not being used as an outlet for your domestic mill system, right? Because if you think about it, a lot of what happens is export gets used as a dumping ground because you don't have enough volume in your domestic system.

我的意思是，客戶確實重視它，它不會被用作國內工廠系統的出口，對嗎？因為如果你仔細想想，很多情況下，出口會被用作傾銷場，因為你的國內系統沒有足夠的容量。

And so you dump it into the export system, which reads havoc on the overall markets because all that stuff, it all comes back around the world one way or the other. And -- and so there's a segment of that, which is I'm going to call the dumping ground, which we're well on the way of getting out. We're not done yet, but I don't know, Lance, we'd probably halfway through.

因此，你將其投入出口系統，這會對整個市場造成嚴重破壞，因為所有這些東西都會以某種方式回到世界各地。而且 — — 其中有一部分，我稱之為垃圾場，我們正在順利清除它。我們還沒有完成，但我不知道，蘭斯，我們可能已經完成了一半。

You probably feel -- I'm going to say half maybe a little bit better. But there's more to do and because you're not just pulling the rug out, right? You got to do it thoughtfully. And again, volume and the assets that you have, those things go hand in hand. So you can't just kind of run from it and sit on a stranded asset.

您可能會感覺到——我想說，也許有一半感覺好一點。但還有很多事情要做，因為你不是在敷衍了事，對吧？你必須慎重地去做這件事。再說一次，交易量和你擁有的資產是相輔相成的。所以你不能只是逃避並坐擁擱淺資產。

You can't do that until we got to be smart about that. And then there's a piece feel like I said, that people really do value it. And we want that business, right? That is a strategic business where people will pay for our capabilities. And we're going to -- we'll keep that over time.

除非我們對此有充分的了解，否則你不能這麼做。然後就像我說的，有種感覺，人們確實很重視它。我們想要那項業務，對嗎？這是一項策略性業務，人們將為我們的能力付費。我們會一直保持這種狀態。

But we have to bifurcate it. The stuff we don't want. I think it's a little bit of a thumb in the air, right, a wet thumb in the air, but it's somewhere north of 50%.

但我們必須將其一分為二。我們不要的東西。我認為這有點像是拇指在空中，對，就像是拇指在空中濕漉漉的，但它在 50% 以上的某個地方。

Thanks very much. I'll turn it back.

非常感謝。我會把它轉回去。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Phil Ng。

Hey guys, well, Andy, you've had a few months under the hood now with DS Smith. When you look at the asset quality cost curve and all that great stuff, both on the box plan, and I'm particularly curious on the mill side of things.

嘿夥計們，安迪，你已經在 DS Smith 工作了幾個月了。當您查看資產品質成本曲線和所有那些優秀的東西時，無論是在盒子計劃上，還是在工廠方面，我都特別好奇。

How does the asset stack up from a cost curve standpoint? Is there work you can do on the optimization just because of that market, Europe more broadly is obviously oversupplied at this point? Granted you're integrated, you're in a much better spot, but I would imagine some of the nonintegrated guys are kind of in a world of hurt, right? So just kind of help us think through that opportunity set on the mill side. And then on a side note, I noticed in the bridge for 1Q to 2Q, DS Smith North America legacy operated at a $5 million loss in EBITDA.

從成本曲線的角度來看，資產如何累積？您是否可以針對該市場進行最佳化工作，目前整個歐洲顯然供應過剩？如果你已經融入其中，你的處境就會好得多，但我想一些沒有融入其中的人會處於一種痛苦之中，對嗎？所以這只是幫助我們思考工廠方面的機會。然後順便提一下，我注意到在第一季至第二季的過渡期中，DS Smith 北美地區的 EBITDA 虧損了 500 萬美元。

Is there something you can do to shore that up, hopefully, sometime this year?

您是否能採取一些措施來鞏固這一目標，希望是在今年某個時候？

So yes, two things. So on the -- in quality of assets, what I'm going to say is it's a mixed bag. And we knew that going into it. And what do I mean by that? So let's talk about the mill system of the -- let's call it paper supply or mill system.

是的，有兩件事。因此，就資產品質而言，我想說的是，情況好壞參半。我們知道這一點。我這樣說是什麼意思呢？那麼，讓我們來談談工廠系統——我們稱之為紙張供應或工廠系統。

And we talked about this in multiple settings in the past. What you really have are three pieces to our mill or paper supply business. And I'm going to take a second and walk you through this because this is important. The first thing you have is you have mill assets that are manufacturing paper that's going into our box system. And that's about plus or well actually not minus.

我們過去曾多次討論過這個問題。您真正擁有的是我們的工廠或紙張供應業務的三個部分。我將花一點時間向您介紹這一點，因為這很重要。首先，您擁有工廠資產，用於生產進入我們紙箱系統的紙張。這大約是加號，或者實際上不是減號。

It's right around 50-plus percent of the paper that we utilized in our box system. And we are manufacturing that ourselves. The other half is going into other products into the marketplace that we are not principally manufacturing for end market use, right?

這大約佔了我們在箱子系統中使用的紙張的 50% 以上。而且我們自己也在生產。另一半將進入市場上的其他產品，而我們主要不是為終端市場製造的，對嗎？

So that's being sold and things that are other paper-based products that are not going into our box products. So that -- if you think of that mill system, one to one is stuff we manufacture and we consume stuff that we manufacture that we don't consume and we're selling into the market.

這就是正在出售的東西，以及其他不會進入我們的盒裝產品的紙質產品。所以 — — 如果你想想那個工廠系統，一對一就是我們生產的東西，我們消費的東西，我們生產但不消費的東西，我們賣到市場上。

The third piece is the paper that we're buying on the open market to go into our mill system. So the way to think of it is we want to -- much like we are in the United States, we want to continue to drive integration, right, into -- from the box to paper and back. We want to continue to drive integration. And so we're going to make investments around driving that integration. And you're right, the folks who are integrated and are driving that are winning in the market.

第三部分是我們在公開市場上購買並進入我們的工廠系統的紙張。所以，我們應該這樣想——就像我們在美國一樣，我們希望繼續推動從盒子到紙張再到盒子的整合。我們希望繼續推動整合。因此，我們將為推動這項整合進行投資。你說得對，那些整合並推動這一切的人將在市場上獲勝。

The folks who are manufacturing more commoditized-based paper products are not winning in that market. And so that is absolutely the path that we are going down. And so we're going to focus in on being an integrated, sustainable paper-based packaging company.

生產更多商品化紙製品的人們並沒有在該市場上獲勝。所以這絕對是我們要走的路。因此，我們將致力於成為一家綜合性的、可持續發展的紙質包裝公司。

Okay. Any color on the North America and DS Smith piece that's offering a lot? Does that get sorted out soon?

好的。北美和 DS Smith 作品中有哪些色彩可以提供？這個問題很快就能解決嗎？

Yes. Sorry about that. Yes, look, I feel really good about that. It's -- the integration of the DS Smith US assets into our footprint is going well.

是的。很抱歉。是的，看，我對此感覺非常好。DS Smith 美國資產與我們業務的整合進展順利。

Look, as we look at the total asset mix, in many ways, right, not in many ways, in all ways, that's really not integrated into our system yet. And so when you get a pocket lag in demand today, unlike our other mill assets, where you move things around to the system, right, to balance it. We're not there yet at DS Smith. And so you'll see us optimize the asset set and optimize how we move volume to appropriate mills over time. And so there's nothing there that concerns me longer term.

你看，當我們看總資產組合時，在很多方面，對吧，不是在很多方面，而是在所有方面，它實際上還沒有融入我們的系統中。因此，當您今天遇到需求滯後時，與我們的其他工廠資產不同，您可以將東西轉移到系統中，對吧，以平衡它。我們還沒有到達 DS Smith。因此，您會看到我們優化資產設定並優化我們如何隨著時間的推移將產量轉移到合適的工廠。因此，長期來看，沒有什麼事情會讓我擔心。

And we have absolutely the levers for driving the synergies and the benefits that we talked about at Investor Day, we are absolutely on track.

我們絕對有實力推動我們在投資者日談到的協同效應和效益，我們絕對走在正確的軌道上。

And then maybe piggybacking off of George's questions earlier. In the deck, you reiterated your EBITDA guidance for Packaging Solutions [Excelus], but you didn't give as much color on Europe or pulp, it's one number rated in a range. My question last quarter was as long as demand is steady in North America, you generally felt like the EBITDA guide where it was a little more elaborate last quarter. Wouldn't be quite in the midpoint, but above the low end, certainly North America is lining up as expected. Europe seems a little choppier.

然後也許可以藉鏡喬治之前提出的問題。在簡報中，您重申了對包裝解決方案 [Excelus] 的 EBITDA 指導，但並未對歐洲或紙漿進行過多描述，而只是一個範圍內的數字。我上個季度的問題是，只要北美的需求穩定，您就會普遍覺得上個季度的 EBITDA 指南更加詳細一些。雖然不會完全處於中間點，但在低端之上，北美肯定會按照預期排隊。歐洲似乎有些動盪。

The pulp business is a little choppier. So kind of give us some -- I guess, broader parameters how we should think about the year unfolding?

紙漿業務有點不穩定。那麼，請給我們一些——我想，更廣泛的參數，我們應該如何看待這一年的展開？

Yeah. Look, I think -- Philip, I think you've narrowed in really well. right, which is if you look at that $3.8 billion second half run rate that we're talking about, and that's what we needed to be in that range, right? That's where we really needed to be. We're on there and where that moves within the range so far has really principally been driven by what's happened in the marketplace in terms of just overall market volume.

是的。瞧，我認為──菲利普，我認為你已經把範圍縮小得很好了。對的，如果你看看我們正在談論的下半年 38 億美元的運行率，這就是我們需要的那個範圍，對吧？這才是我們真正需要去的地方。我們處於這個水平，到目前為止，其在範圍內的變動主要取決於市場上整體市場容量的變化。

If you take market volumes, which year-to-date are down, were down about 2% in the second quarter versus -- in first quarter, what was it? Trying to remember off the top of my head -- yes. So pretty market was also -- it was also. Yes. So if you look at that, that first is a plus 1, right?

如果以今年迄今的市場交易量來看，第二季的市場交易量較第一季下降了約 2%，那麼下降幅度又是多少？我努力回想起當時的情景——是的。所以漂亮的市場也是──它也是。是的。所以如果你看一下，那第一個就是加 1，對嗎？

So we went into the year thinking that the year would be a plus 1. And so we're kind of 2 or 3 points market versus expectation is somewhere 2 or 3 points worse. And so if you look at kind of that really explains kind of all everything we're talking about here. And now the mill operations, that could have been upside for us, right? So that's not really a major downside.

因此，我們以為自己今年會是獲利的一年。因此，我們的市場比預期低 2 到 3 個百分點。所以如果你看一下，這確實解釋了我們在這裡談論的一切。現在工廠的運作對我們來說可能是有利的，對嗎？所以這並不是什麼重大的缺點。

But it could have been upside that we didn't get -- and so those two things, as I put them together, that's really the biggest up. And so as I look at going forward, do I believe that the marketplace has been constrained by what's going on in the macro environment, I really do. And do I think we can capture that upside over time? I think so. So we're well within the range that we outlined in March.

但我們可能沒有得到好處——所以，當我把這兩件事放在一起時，這才是最大的好處。因此，當我展望未來時，我是否相信市場已經受到宏觀環境的限制？我確實這麼認為。我是否認為隨著時間的推移我們能夠獲得這種優勢？我認為是的。因此，我們完全處於 3 月概述的範圍內。

Really, it's that top line and then obviously, the mill performance in North America that we talked about. Europe is on the lower end of our expectations right now because, again, of the market softness. So I can buy it if I step back, and I think we're here this time next year, what do I hope to be meaningfully different. Some things I can't control, some things I can. Number one, again, we are winning market share in North America, right?

實際上，我們談論的是營收情況，顯然還有北美工廠的表現。目前，歐洲的表現低於我們的預期，原因同樣是市場疲軟。所以如果我退一步的話我就可以買它，而且我認為我們明年這個時候會在這裡，我希望有什麼有意義的不同。有些事情我無法控制，有些事情我可以控制。首先，我們再次贏得了北美的市場份額，對嗎？

That will be important. Two, we improved, we make real traction on this mill reliability over the next year. And three, we get after the complexity reduction in Europe, right? Those are all things that we can control. And so if I look at it, if you take the market set the market aside, we're here a year from now and you guys are grading our progress, I think that's what you're going to be grading us on.

這很重要。第二，我們進行了改進，在接下來的一年裡，我們將真正提高工廠的可靠性。第三，歐洲的複雜性降低了，對嗎？這些都是我們可以控制的事情。所以如果我看一下，如果你把市場放在一邊，一年後我們就會在這裡，你們會對我們的進展進行評分，我想這就是你們對我們進行評分的基礎。

Okay, appreciate all the great color, Andy.

好的，欣賞所有美麗的色彩，安迪。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Yeah, thank you, Andy, Mandy and Michelle for taking my questions and congrats on all the progress. Yes, I just wanted to follow up with you regarding the [80-20] deployment in Europe. Obviously, you're moving at a very fast pace with some of the box plant closures, you mentioned streamlining in the subregions into seven from 13. But you also just mentioned in response to Phil's question about getting after complexity in Europe. So can you comment on maybe what's next in terms of Europe, is it more closures?

是的，謝謝 Andy、Mandy 和 Michelle 回答我的問題，並祝賀你們取得的所有進展。是的，我只是想跟進一下歐洲[80-20]部署的情況。顯然，你們正在快速關閉一些紙箱廠，你們提到將子區域從 13 個精簡為 7 個。但您剛才也回答了菲爾關於如何解決歐洲複雜問題的問題。那麼，您能否評論一下歐洲下一步的行動，是否會採取更多封鎖措施？

Is there no consolidation? Is it for the head count reduction, just to give us a sense of what's next on the list. And really, how has employee receptiveness been to the changes you're looking to the play?

沒有整齊嗎？是為了裁員嗎？只是為了讓我們了解下一步的計劃。那麼，員工對於您所期待的改變的接受程度如何？

Thank you, Mike. So Mike, as you know, in Europe, the process of any kind of structural change is very different, right? And what I mean by that is not the actions themselves, but there is a very important consultation process that you need to go through, right? And you have to work through that. And so what that means is that tends to mean things are a little bit slower.

謝謝你，麥克。所以麥克，正如你所知，在歐洲，任何類型的結構性變化的過程都非常不同，對嗎？我的意思並不是說行動本身，而是你需要經歷一個非常重要的協商過程，對嗎？你必須努力克服這一點。所以這意味著事情進展會慢一點。

That's just the reality. And you got to work through it and you got to work through legally culturally, and we are going to do the right thing across the board. If you look at what we've done so far in the UK and on the delayering, we have followed through in those processes. They're not done yet because you have to go through that consultation process.

這就是現實。你必須解決這個問題，你必須從法律和文化角度解決這個問題，我們將全面做正確的事情。如果你看看我們迄今為止在英國所做的工作以及層層削減，你會發現我們已經完成了這些流程。他們還沒有完成，因為你必須經過諮詢過程。

And so putting a fine pin on exact numbers, you don't exactly know yet because you got to go through the consultation process appropriately, and we're going to do that. At the same time, we have to do the things to make the business strong.

因此，對於確切的數字，您還無法確切知道，因為您必須經過適當的諮詢過程，我們將這樣做。同時，我們必須採取措施讓業務更加強大。

Having done this in Europe now for, gosh, 25 years, I think a lot of people are fearful of taking the kind of actions that you need to build the business because it is arduous, right? So you tend to do -- and because of that, a lot of companies live with substandard businesses that frankly never really earn their cost of capital. And without having a US.

天哪，我已經在歐洲做了 25 年了，我想很多人都害怕採取建立業務所需的行動，因為這很艱鉅，對嗎？所以你往往會這樣做——正因為如此，許多公司都存在不合格的業務，坦白說，它們從未真正賺到資本成本。並且沒有美國。

parent, they're going to struggle. And I just don't believe in that. When we decided to buy DS Smith, it was on the belief that we could structurally change that business and thereby reinvest back into what DS Smith does so bang well, which is the commercial side of the business and drive that engine. So we're doing that, right? And so we are going to keep at this.

父母，他們將會掙扎。但我根本不相信這一點。當我們決定收購 DS Smith 時，我們相信我們可以從結構上改變該業務，從而重新投資於 DS Smith 做得非常好的領域，即業務的商業方面並推動該引擎。所以我們就這麼做了，對吧？因此我們會繼續這樣做。

This will be a journey, and we're on it. where we're going to restructure this as appropriately. Just as we have done already in North America, we're going to do in Europe, where we're going to invest in the strategic assets, we're going to invest in the customers where we believe there's opportunity to win and we're doing that. And frankly, there's real excitement. And I'm going to bifurcate this comment.

這將是一段旅程，我們正在其中，我們將對其進行適當的重組。正如我們在北美已經做的那樣，我們將在歐洲做同樣的事情，我們將在那裡投資戰略資產，我們將在那裡投資我們認為有機會獲勝的客戶，我們正在這樣做。坦白說，這確實令人興奮。我將對這一評論進行分叉。

This real excitement on making the tough choices. People want to win. I don't care where you on the world. People do not like losing, especially great people. And so the team over there, and we have a really, really, really good team at DS Smith.

做出艱難選擇時這真的令人興奮。人們都想贏。我不在乎你在世界的哪個地方。人們不喜歡失敗，尤其是偉大的人。所以那邊的團隊，我們在 DS Smith 有一個非常非常優秀的團隊。

That team over there, I mentioned Stefano and I mentioned Paul, you guys met them at the Investor Day. They're winners and they want to go after this thing, and they really want to win. At the same time, right, we're all human, and these decisions are freaky heart, right? These are hard. These decisions impact people's lives.

那邊的那個團隊，我提到了斯特凡諾和保羅，你們在投資者日見過他們。他們是勝利者，他們想要追求這個目標，他們真的想要勝利。同時，對吧，我們都是人，這些決定都是怪異的，對吧？這些都很難。這些決定影響著人們的生活。

And the time that, that doesn't bother you, you ought to get out, right? Because we ought to look at these things and we got to do the right thing, not just for our investors, right, but you got to do the right thing for the sustainable, strong businesses and sustainable strong businesses need to be reinvested in.

當你不介意的時候，你就應該出去，對嗎？因為我們應該考慮這些事情，我們必須做正確的事情，不僅是為了我們的投資者，對吧，而且你必須為可持續的、強大的企業做正確的事情，而可持續的強大企業需要再投資。

And when you have a business that cannot stand on its own, you can't reinvest in it, which basically means a slow death. We're not in that game, and we're not going to play that game. We are going to reinvest in assets that have the opportunity to win, so our people can win, so they can really have the kind of lives and careers that they want to have.

當你的企業無法獨立生存時，你就無法再投資，這實際上意味著緩慢的死亡。我們沒有參與那個遊戲，我們也不會玩那個遊戲。我們將對有機會獲勝的資產進行再投資，以便我們的人民能夠獲勝，以便他們能夠真正擁有他們想要的生活和事業。

And so I'd be blow and smoke if I said it wasn't hard. It is hard and the people who are impacted by it, it hurts, and we take it super seriously. But we're still going to do it. And we're going to do it because it's the right thing for the long term for the business. It's the right thing for our people.

所以如果我說這並不難，那我就是吹牛大王。這很艱難，受其影響的人也感到痛苦，我們對此非常重視。但我們仍會這麼做。我們會這麼做，因為從企業的長遠來看，這是正確的選擇。這對我們的人民來說是正確的事。

It's the right thing for our customers. And ultimately, it will be the right thing for our shareholders, too. So yes, thank you very much. I appreciate that question, Mike.

這對我們的客戶來說是正確的。最終，這對我們的股東來說也是一件好事。是的，非常感謝。我很感謝你提出這個問題，麥克。

I guess the hour here, but just one quick one. In Europe as well, you did have -- you see some better pricing in the second half, but it looks like some pretty pricing has weakened as well. So that could threaten in 2026. So what type of European price assumptions are embedded in your $1.8 billion to $2 billion of EBITDA in 2027? I'm just trying to gauge the risk to your EMEA EBITDA forecast given the price weakness that has emerged recently.

我猜這裡已經有一個小時了，但只是短暫的一個小時。在歐洲也一樣，你確實看到下半年一些更好的定價，但看起來一些漂亮的定價也已經減弱。因此這可能會在 2026 年造成威脅。那麼，您 2027 年 18 億至 20 億美元的 EBITDA 包含哪些類型的歐洲價格假設呢？我只是想根據最近出現的價格疲軟情況來評估您對 EMEA EBITDA 預測的風險。

Yes. If you go back to last quarter, what we had told you about is there was one price increase earlier in the year and then a second one had come out. right? And we -- our belief was that the first one would stick and all the evidence is that, that is sticking, and all of our assumptions are based on that, right, is really on that first one. The second one, given what you said, we're more cautious on, obviously, as the market will bear it, we want to price appropriately.

是的。如果回顧上個季度，我們告訴您的是，今年早些時候價格上漲了一次，然後又出現了第二次價格上漲。對嗎？而我們 — — 我們相信第一個會堅持下去，所有的證據都表明，它是堅持的，我們所有的假設都是基於這一點，對，確實是基於第一個。第二，根據你所說的，我們對此更加謹慎，顯然，由於市場能夠承受，我們希望定價合理。

But the market is going to determine that. And we don't -- we haven't got anything built in for this year or for next year on that second price increase. Thanks, Mike. I think that's it's for the question. So I just want to thank everybody for your continued interest and support of IP.

但市場將決定這一點。我們還沒有為今年或明年的第二次價格上漲製定任何計劃。謝謝，麥克。我想這就是問題所在。所以我只想感謝大家對 IP 的持續關注和支持。

There's a lot going on. I mean, at the end of the day, we have a lot of stuff going on. But I just -- I want to come back to the 3 points I made when we started this conversation here today is number one, this transformation is on track, right?

有很多事情發生。我的意思是，到最後，我們還有很多事情要做。但我只是——我想回到今天我們開始這次談話時我提出的三點，第一，這種轉變正在按計劃進行，對嗎？

The second quarter revenue, with [that] our expectation, the market is weaker than we would have hoped in North America and EMEA. But I think overall, if I think about the intermediate term and the longer term, it feels like there's upside to that.

根據我們的預期，第二季的營收比我們在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區所期望的要弱。但我認為總的來說，如果考慮中期和長期，我覺得這還有好處。

We know we've got the transformation in terms of cost, lots of progress in a lot of places, got to get better in the mill system. We're just launching 80-20 in Europe. And we've got to get after that. And the teams know that full well. And finally, look, we're holding our EBITDA guidance.

我們知道我們在成本方面已經實現了轉型，在許多地方取得了很大進展，工廠系統也得到了改善。我們剛在歐洲推出 80-20。我們必須實現這一目標。而團隊也非常清楚這一點。最後，你看，我們堅持我們的 EBITDA 指導。

The jump up from second quarter to third quarter, we understand how important that is. It's not lost on anybody that this is a big inflection point for us. And so we are in this thing to get it done. So I want to thank you again for your support. Appreciate it, and look forward to follow-up conversations.

從第二季到第三季的躍升，我們明白這有多重要。大家都知道，這對我們來說是一個重大的轉捩點。所以我們要努力完成這件事。因此我想再次感謝你們的支持。非常感謝，並期待後續的對話。

Take care, everybody.

大家保重。

Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Paper's second-quarter 2025 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝您參加國際紙業 2025 年第二季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線。