International Paper Co (IP) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Paper's first quarter 2025 earnings call.

早安，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加國際紙業 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) And it is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Michelle Vargas, Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

（操作員指示）現在我很高興將電話轉給投資者關係總監 Michelle Vargas。女士，請您發言。

Thank you, Krista. Good morning, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining International Paper's first quarter 2025 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，克里斯塔。早安，下午好，感謝您參加國際紙業 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。今天早上的演講者是董事長兼首席執行官 Andy Silvernail；以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Lance Loeffler。

There is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during this call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們的簡報的開頭包含一些重要訊息，其中包括某些法律免責聲明。例如，在本次電話會議中，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性以及其他可能導致或促成實際結果與此類前瞻性陳述存在重大差異的因素的影響，這些因素可以在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的新聞稿和報告中找到。

We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to US GAAP financial measures is available on our website. Our website also contains copies of the first quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides.

我們也將提供某些非美國公認會計準則的財務資訊。這些數據與美國 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表可在我們的網站上查閱。我們的網站還包含第一季收益新聞稿和今天的簡報投影片的副本。

I will now turn the call over to Andy Silvernail.

現在我將電話轉給 Andy Silvernail。

Thanks, Michelle. Good morning, good afternoon, everybody. I'm going to start on slide 3. Tomorrow, I've been in the role for a year. The milestone is a good opportunity to reflect on a year of substantial change.

謝謝，米歇爾。大家早安，下午好。我將從幻燈片 3 開始。明天，我就擔任這個職務一週年了。這個里程碑是回顧這一年重大變化的良好機會。

As I look back, I'm excited about our progress. The team that are privileged to lead has embraced our transformation, moving with urgency and open mind. I see the desire everywhere to win for this company, along with the willingness to embrace a culture of safety above all else.

回首往事，我對我們的進步感到興奮。有幸領導的團隊已經接受了我們的轉型，並以緊迫感和開放的心態採取行動。我看到這家公司處處洋溢著勝利的渴望，以及擁抱「安全至上」的企業文化的意願。

During this first year together, we've deployed our 80/20 approach to drive transformational change at IP. This began by focusing on our overserving our 80 customers by aligning our people, assets and investment with what creates value for them and to drive profitable growth.

在合作的第一年，我們部署了 80/20 方法來推動 IP 的轉型變革。首先，我們專注於為 80 位客戶提供優質服務，將我們的人員、資產和投資與為客戶創造價值的因素結合，以推動獲利成長。

We've made investments across our business to drive step team improvements in service and reliability and to grow in our most attractive markets. We're building our execution muscle to drive commercial excellence and significant cost out across the company.

我們對整個業務進行了投資，以推動團隊在服務和可靠性方面的逐步改進，並在最具吸引力的市場中實現成長。我們正在增強執行力，以推動整個公司的商業卓越發展和顯著的成本節約。

Most recently, we've welcomed our DS Smith colleagues, and we are well on our way to being stronger together. We've come a long way in a short time, and I see significant opportunity ahead as we accelerate our 80/20 execution and continue on our transformation journey.

最近，我們迎來了 DS Smith 的同事，我們正在共同變得更加強大。我們在短時間內取得了長足的進步，隨著我們加快 80/20 執行並繼續我們的轉型之旅，我看到了巨大的機會。

Now moving to slide 4. At our Investor Day last month, we shared our ambitions for the next few years. We've outlined the three pillars of our strategy designed to drive sustainable value creation. It begins with building an advantaged cost position, which provides the foundation to drive additional investments and build the right capabilities to serve our customers with excellence.

現在轉到投影片 4。在上個月的投資者日上，我們分享了未來幾年的目標。我們概述了旨在推動永續價值創造的策略的三大支柱。首先要建立優勢成本地位，這為推動額外投資和建立正確的能力以提供卓越的客戶服務奠定基礎。

By building a superior customer experience, we will win profitable market share. This virtual cycle will drive high relative supply position, enabling us to build advantaged capabilities and strengthen customer offerings while increasing scale and further reducing structural costs.

透過打造卓越的客戶體驗，我們將贏得有利可圖的市場份額。這種虛擬循環將推動較高的相對供應地位，使我們能夠建立優勢能力並加強客戶服務，同時擴大規模並進一步降低結構性成本。

Before I turn to the next slide, let me outline my specific goals for today's call. First, I'll give an overview of what we've accomplished over the previous year. I'm incredibly proud of the focus, commitment and tireless work across the teams in North America and EMEA.

在翻到下一張投影片之前，讓我先概述一下今天電話會議的具體目標。首先，我將概述我們在過去一年中所取得的成就。我為北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區團隊的專注、承諾和不懈努力感到無比自豪。

Second, we will address the realities of the economic noise and the impact on our businesses of consumer sentiment. I'll provide a current view of what we're seeing in the market. Finally, we'll go through in detail how we are working to control our own destiny to stay on our transformational trajectory.

其次，我們將解決經濟噪音的現實問題以及消費者情緒對我們業務的影響。我將提供目前我們在市場上看到的情況。最後，我們將詳細介紹如何努力掌控自己的命運，以維持我們的轉型軌跡。

In the first half of the year, we'll be at nearly $800 million of run rate quarterly EBITDA, accelerating to $1.1 billion by Q4. We are on a transformational journey. The external world is a little wild right now. I've been involved in a lot of challenging moments from 9/11 to The Great Recession to COVID. We're going to stay focused on the strategy, tireless and our execution and resolute in building a great company.

今年上半年，我們的季度 EBITDA 運行率將達到近 8 億美元，到第四季將加速至 11 億美元。我們正處於轉型之旅。現在外面的世界有點瘋狂。我經歷過很多充滿挑戰的時刻，從 911 到經濟大衰退，再到新冠疫情。我們將繼續專注於策略，堅持不懈，堅決執行，打造一家偉大的公司。

We're moving now to slide 5. Here's another slide that we shared with you at Investor Day, which provided our earnings targets for 2025, including financial goals for each of our businesses and the underlying market assumptions. At our Investor Day, we noted that we've seen a tick down demand with a tariff conversation first started.

我們現在轉到投影片 5。這是我們在投資者日與您分享的另一張投影片，其中提供了我們 2025 年的獲利目標，包括我們每個業務的財務目標和基本的市場假設。在我們的投資者日上，我們注意到，隨著關稅談判的開始，需求有所下降。

After the trade discussions escalated a week later, we saw another negative shift in demand. Despite the uncertainty about the macro landscape we are controlling the controllables with a focus on driving commercial wins and inefficiencies out. Regardless of the macro environment, our job is to win for our customers, create a great place to work and position IP for long-term profitable market share growth.

一週後貿易談判升級，我們又看到需求出現負面變化。儘管宏觀情勢存在不確定性，我們仍在控制可控因素，重點是推動商業勝利並消除低效率。無論宏觀環境如何，我們的工作都是為客戶贏得勝利，創造良好的工作場所，並定位 IP 以實現長期盈利的市場份額成長。

At current demand levels, we can deliver for the year. It's impossible to predict the next few months as much as being driven outside of normal market forces. Regardless, we will remain vigilant and work to accelerate our strategy if demand falls further. This is a self-help story.

按照目前的需求水平，我們可以完成全年的交付。由於受到正常市場力量的影響，預測未來幾個月的情況是不可能的。無論如何，如果需求進一步下降，我們將保持警惕並努力加快我們的策略。這是一個自助的故事。

I'm now turning to slide 6. You can see our current view of the demand environment. Industry demand in North America was down 2% in the first quarter. And based on our order patterns, we expect that level of demand to continue into the second quarter. Demand across the European markets were soft in the first quarter as expected, and we expect it to remain stable in the second quarter on a quarter-to-quarter basis.

我現在翻到第 6 張投影片。您可以看到我們對當前需求環境的看法。第一季北美工業需求下降2%。根據我們的訂單模式，我們預計這種需求水準將持續到第二季​​。正如預期的那樣，第一季歐洲市場的需求疲軟，我們預計第二季的需求將環比保持穩定。

In both regions, demand has been stable in April, but we're very cautious about the outlook given the strong negative consumer and business sentiment. Given the wide range in uncertainty and volatility, we're prepared for three very different scenarios.

這兩個地區四月的需求都比較穩定，但鑑於消費者和商業情緒的強烈負面情緒，我們對前景非常謹慎。鑑於不確定性和波動性範圍廣泛，我們為三種截然不同的情況做好了準備。

If the demand in burn remains stable going forward, I'm confident we remain on track to deliver the targeted range of earnings improvements. If we see meaningful deterioration in the economic environment, it's likely would fall below our range. We would take appropriate countermeasures to ensure that we remain highly competitive while funding our strategy and our dividend.

如果未來燃燒需求保持穩定，我相信我們仍能實現目標範圍內的獲利成長。如果我們看到經濟環境出現嚴重惡化，它很可能會跌破我們的預期範圍。我們將採取適當的對策，確保我們在為我們的策略和股息提供資金的同時保持高度競爭力。

Alternatively, if the economic environment improves, we still feel good about the upper end of our earnings target. With our transformational initiatives, along with our strong balance sheet, IP is well positioned to navigate various macro environments.

或者，如果經濟環境改善，我們仍然對我們的獲利目標的上限感到滿意。憑藉我們的轉型舉措以及強勁的資產負債表，IP 已做好準備應對各種宏觀環境。

I'm now moving to slide 7. As I mentioned upfront, we've accomplished a great deal in the year, but we have much to do. We have solid momentum on our actions to drive significant cost out of our system by reducing complexity and reinvesting to build our advantaged cost position.

我現在轉到第 7 張投影片。正如我之前提到的，我們在今年取得了很大的成就，但我們還有很多工作要做。我們擁有強勁的勢頭，透過降低複雜性和再投資來建立我們的優勢成本地位，從而降低系統中的大量成本。

As I shared at Investor Day, we are targeting $1.9 billion of cost out after inflation by the end of 2027. We've already taken actions across the company to drive approximately $60, that's approximately $400 million of annual cost savings while also pushing more resources close to the customer.

正如我在投資者日上所分享的，我們的目標是到 2027 年底，扣除通貨膨脹因素後的成本支出達到 19 億美元。我們已經在全公司範圍內採取行動，節省約 60 美元，即每年約 4 億美元的成本，同時將更多資源推向客戶。

As we continue to accelerate 80/20 across North America and Europe, we have line of sight to an additional $200 million of savings opportunities by the end of 2025 and the synergies that we've outlined for DS Smith.

隨著我們繼續在北美和歐洲加速 80/20 戰略，我們預計在 2025 年底前實現額外的 2 億美元節約機會，並實現我們為 DS Smith 概述的協同效應。

We are laser-focused on achieving significant synergies from the combination of IP and DS Smith. After a very successful launch of our 80/20 lighthouses in Chicago and Atlanta, we are now rolling out our 80/20 performance system to more than 75 box plants across North America by the end of the year. We have also launched two lighthouses in our mill system to deploy 80/20 across that system.

我們專注於透過 IP 和 DS Smith 的結合實現顯著的協同效應。在芝加哥和亞特蘭大成功推出 80/20 燈塔之後，我們將在今年年底前將 80/20 性能係統推廣到北美 75 多個箱式工廠。我們還在工廠系統中啟動了兩座燈塔，以便在整個系統中部署 80/20。

We are focusing to further optimize our mill and box plant footprint while driving down sourcing and supply chain costs. We have tremendous opportunities throughout the company to reduce complexity and drive out costs.

我們正致力於進一步優化我們的工廠和箱子工廠的佔地面積，同時降低採購和供應鏈成本。我們整個公司都擁有巨大的機會來降低複雜性和降低成本。

I'm now moving to slide 8. We also have opportunities to drive significant earnings improvement through commercial excellence. We're targeting $1.1 billion of commercial improvement benefits by the end of 2027, and we believe we are on track to achieve approximately $600 million of run rate benefits by the end of this year.

我現在轉到第 8 張投影片。我們還有機會透過卓越的商業表現來大幅提高獲利。我們的目標是到 2027 年底實現 11 億美元的商業改善效益，我們相信，我們預計在今年年底實現約 6 億美元的運行率效益。

We've made significant changes to improve our capabilities to overserve our (inaudible) customers, which includes investing in our people and our operations. In order to overserve our 80 customers, we put more resources closer to the customer by investing in commercial capabilities and improving the customer experience.

我們已經做出了重大改變，以提高我們為（聽不清楚）客戶提供優質服務的能力，其中包括對我們的員工和營運進行投資。為了更好地服務我們的 80 位客戶，我們透過投資商業能力和改善客戶體驗，將更多的資源投入更貼近客戶的地方。

As a result of this strategy, we've significantly improved our service and on-time delivery, which has resulted in best-in-class Net Promoter Score. During the first quarter, our Packaging Solutions business in North America continued to improve commercially, closing our volume gap to market by approximately 500 basis points. This was 100 basis points better than we expected.

由於這項策略，我們顯著改善了我們的服務和準時交付，從而獲得了一流的淨推薦值。第一季度，我們在北美的包裝解決方案業務持續商業化改善，將與市場的銷售差距縮小了約 500 個基點。這比我們預期的要好 100 個基點。

Given our momentum, we expect to close this gap and grow at or above the market by the fourth quarter of this year. We will continue to invest in capabilities to improve the customer experience and drive profitable market share growth.

鑑於我們的發展勢頭，我們預計到今年第四季將縮小這一差距，並達到或超過市場水平。我們將繼續投資於改善客戶體驗和推動獲利市場份額成長的能力。

We are committed to building the customer-centric culture across International Paper, and I'm excited about the opportunity to leverage the strong capability that has long existed at DS Smith. Importantly, we launched 80/20 at DS Smith immediately after the close. We have a rigorous implementation schedule, which will catalyze our synergy goals of $600 million to $700 million.

我們致力於在國際紙業建立以客戶為中心的文化，我很高興有機會利用 DS Smith 長期以來的強大能力。重要的是，我們在收盤後立即在 DS Smith 推出了 80/20。我們有一個嚴格的實施時間表，這將催化我們實現 6 億至 7 億美元的協同目標。

So now let's turn to our performance and outlook on slide 9. Going forward, for financial reporting purposes, we will have three reporting segments. We report legacy IP and DS Smith businesses in North America as packaging solution in North America.

現在讓我們來看看第 9 張投影片上的表現和展望。展望未來，出於財務報告的目的，我們將有三個報告分部。我們將北美的傳統 IP 和 DS Smith 業務報告為北美的包裝解決方案。

We will refer to legacy IP and DS Smith businesses in EMEA as Packaging Solutions EMEA. Importantly, in North America, we are going to go to market commercially and for our people as International Paper, while in Europe, we are leveraging the outstanding brand equity by going to market at DS Smith and International Paper Company.

我們將把 EMEA 地區的傳統 IP 和 DS Smith 業務稱為 Packaging Solutions EMEA。重要的是，在北美，我們將以國際紙業的名義進行商業行銷並服務於我們的員工；而在歐洲，我們將以 DS Smith 和國際紙業公司的名義進行行銷，以充分利用卓越的品牌資產。

Regarding our Global Cellulose Fibers business, the strategic option process is ongoing, and we have a number of interested parties in the due diligence phase. No changes are expected to our time line, and we remain focused on achieving the right value for the business.

關於我們的全球纖維素纖維業務，策略選擇過程正在進行中，我們有許多有興趣的方處於盡職調查階段。我們的時間表預計不會發生任何變化，我們將繼續專注於實現業務的正確價值。

Now I'll share some highlights, and then I'll turn it over to Lance, who will walk you through the details. I'm now on slide 10. Our first quarter results reflected higher sales and earnings driven by the DS Smith acquisition, sales price increases in North America benefits from transformation initiatives and some favorable nonrecurring items, which Lance will cover later.

現在我將分享一些亮點，然後我將把它交給 Lance，他將向您介紹詳細資訊。我現在在第 10 張投影片。我們第一季的業績反映了 DS Smith 收購帶來的銷售額和收益成長、北美銷售價格上漲受益於轉型舉措和一些有利的非經常性項目，Lance 稍後將對此進行介紹。

These items also contributed to stronger adjusted EBITDA margins in the quarter. As a result of our commercial strategy, we made good progress reversing the slide in our North American [packaging] business while executing price increases.

這些項目也促進了本季調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的提高。由於我們的商業策略，我們在扭轉北美[包裝]業務下滑趨勢的同時，也實現了價格上漲，並取得了良好進展。

Executing our transformation strategy results in various onetime items that impact earnings and free cash flow. This quarter, our earnings per share were impacted by accelerated depreciation charges related to our footprint optimization initiatives.

執行我們的轉型策略會產生各種影響收益和自由現金流的一次性項目。本季度，我們的每股盈餘受到與我們的足跡優化計畫相關的加速折舊費用的影響。

Our free cash flow came in as expected and was impacted by $670 million related to investments in our transformation, including severance costs and DS Smith transaction costs. This amount also includes this year's incentive compensation payout. For the full year, we still expect to be in the range of $100 million to $300 million of free cash flow as we communicated on Investor Day.

我們的自由現金流符合預期，並受到與轉型投資相關的 6.7 億美元的影響，包括遣散費和 DS Smith 交易成本。該金額還包括今年的激勵薪酬支出。正如我們在投資者日上所傳達的那樣，我們仍然預計全年自由現金流將在 1 億至 3 億美元之間。

As we look to the second quarter, we expect flat adjusted EBITDA and higher earnings per share sequentially. We will have the nonrepeat of accelerated depreciation from the first quarter, a full quarter of Packaged Solutions EMEA results and additional realization from prior sales price index moves.

展望第二季度，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將持平，每股盈餘將環比上升。我們將不會重複第一季的加速折舊、整個季度的 Packaged Solutions EMEA 業績以及先前銷售價格指數變動帶來的額外實現。

We are actively executing our prior price increases. Our cost-out actions will continue to ramp up, and we expect seasonally higher box demand in North America. Offsetting these benefits will be higher planned outage spending and nonrecurring items that were favorable in the first quarter.

我們正在積極執行先前的價格上漲。我們的成本削減措施將繼續加大，我們預計北美地區季節性的箱子需求將會增加。抵消這些好處的將是第一季計劃停運支出增加和非經常性項目。

With that, let me turn it over to Lance to provide more details about our first quarter performance and the outlook. Thanks, Lance.

接下來，請容許我把時間交給 Lance，讓他提供有關我們第一季業績和前景的更多詳細資訊。謝謝，蘭斯。

Thanks, Tammy. Now turning to slide 11. Let me provide some more details about the first quarter as we walk through the sequential earnings bridge. Just a quick note upfront, this bridge shows the breakdown by category for the three months of legacy IP results. The two months of results related to the DS Smith legacy business are reflected in the last two categories of the bridge.

謝謝，塔米。現在翻到第 11 張投影片。在我們回顧連續獲利情況時，讓我提供一些有關第一季的更多細節。首先簡單說明一下，橋樑顯示了三個月內遺留 IP 結果按類別的細分情況。與 DS Smith 遺留業務相關的兩個月結果反映在橋樑的最後兩個類別。

So let's begin. Overall, first quarter adjusted operating earnings per share was $0.23 as compared to a negative $0.02 in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, the fourth quarter included accelerated depreciation related to our facility closures.

那麼就讓我們開始吧。總體而言，第一季調整後每股營業收益為 0.23 美元，而第四季為負 0.02 美元。提醒一下，第四季包括與我們工廠關閉相關的加速折舊。

Price and mix was higher by $0.02 per share in the first quarter, driven by the flow-through of prior price index movements in our North American packaging business and energy credit sales in our Global Cellulose Fibers business.

第一季度，價格和產品組合上漲了 0.02 美元/股，這得益於我們北美包裝業務先前價格指數變動的傳導以及我們全球纖維素纖維業務的能源信貸銷售。

Volume was flat sequentially across the businesses. Operations and costs were favorable by $0.05 per share sequentially due to improved performance and favorable nonrecurring items, which includes insurance proceeds and lower costs associated with employee benefits, along with lower incentive compensation expense.

各業務部門的銷售量較上月持平。由於業績改善和非經常性項目有利，包括保險收益和與員工福利相關的成本降低以及激勵薪酬費用降低，營運和成本每股環比下降 0.05 美元。

Maintenance (inaudible) were flat sequentially and input costs were unfavorable by $0.01 per share due to higher energy costs early in the quarter, partially offset by lower fiber costs. Corporate items were favorable by $0.17 per share due to a lower tax rate as a result of favorable discrete items in the first quarter, primarily related to stock-based compensation.

維護（聽不清楚）環比持平，由於本季初能源成本較高，投入成本每股不利 0.01 美元，但被光纖成本較低部分抵銷。由於第一季有利的獨立項目導致稅率降低，公司項目每股收益為 0.17 美元，主要與股票薪酬有關。

Depreciation expense was $0.02 unfavorable sequentially. As you will recall, accelerated depreciation was a $0.56 negative impact in the fourth quarter due to the closure of our Georgetown mill and several box plants.

折舊費用比上一季減少 0.02 美元。您可能還記得，由於我們喬治敦工廠和幾家紙箱廠的關閉，第四季度加速折舊產生了 0.56 美元的負面影響。

Depreciation expense in the first quarter includes the closure of our Red River Mill and two months of depreciation for DS Smith, including the step-up in basis as a result of the acquisition. Lastly, earnings for the two months of the DS Smith legacy business accounted for $0.04 per share in the first quarter.

第一季的折舊費用包括關閉 Red River Mill 和 DS Smith 兩個月的折舊，其中包括收購導致的基礎增加。最後，DS Smith 遺留業務兩個月的收益在第一季為每股 0.04 美元。

Turning to the segments on slide 12 and starting with our Packaging Solutions North America business first quarter results. Higher sales and adjusted EBITDA for this quarter reflect the addition of the DS Smith North American business, along with benefits from sales price increases and cost out actions.

轉到投影片 12 上的細分，從我們的北美包裝解決方案業務第一季業績開始。本季銷售額和調整後 EBITDA 的成長反映了 DS Smith 北美業務的增加，以及銷售價格上漲和成本削減措施帶來的好處。

In addition, the business had $62 million of favorable nonrecurring items, which I'll cover on the next slide. Overall, market demand was softer than anticipated. However, as Andy mentioned earlier, it's our belief that the business successfully closed the volume gap to market by approximately 500 basis points in the quarter as a result of our focus on commercial excellence.

此外，該業務還有 6,200 萬美元的有利非經常性項目，我將在下一張投影片中介紹。整體而言，市場需求弱於預期。然而，正如安迪之前提到的，我們相信，由於我們專注於商業卓越，該業務在本季度成功縮小了與市場的銷售差距約 500 個基點。

Our earnings also included approximately $190 million of accelerated depreciation associated with the decision to close the Red River Mill in the first quarter. Turning to slide 13 and continuing on with the Packaging Solutions North America business.

我們的收益還包括與第一季關閉紅河磨坊的決定相關的約 1.9 億美元的加速折舊。翻到第 13 張投影片，繼續討論北美包裝解決方案業務。

Price and mix in the first quarter was higher by $44 million due to price realization from prior index movement and open market sales. For the second quarter, we expect an additional price realization of approximately $25 million for those same index moves.

由於先前指數變動和公開市場銷售帶來的價格實現，第一季的價格和組合上漲了 4,400 萬美元。對於第二季度，我們預計同樣的指數變動將帶來約 2500 萬美元的額外價格實現。

Volumes were seasonally lower in the first quarter, and we expect them to be stronger in the second quarter as we enter our heavy produce season. In addition, we expect the continued progress on growing our market position as a result of our commercial strategy focus. Operations and costs were $86 million favorable sequentially.

第一季的產量因季節性原因較低，我們預計第二季產量將會更高，因為我們將進入農產品旺季。此外，我們預計，透過專注於商業策略，我們的市場地位將持續提升。營運和成本較上一季下降 8,600 萬美元。

This includes $62 million from lower costs associated with an employee medical benefits true-up and insurance proceeds related to last year's exact box plant fire. The balance is related to improvement initiatives and lower costs associated with employee incentive compensation.

其中包括與員工醫療福利調整相關的成本降低 6,200 萬美元，以及與去年箱式工廠火災相關的保險收益。平衡與改善措施和降低與員工激勵薪酬相關的成本有關。

For the second quarter, the discrete items I mentioned are not expected to repeat and we also expect to have some additional ancillary maintenance costs due to timing. Planned maintenance outages are anticipated to be heavier in the second quarter, resulting in $33 million of higher costs.

對於第二季度，我提到的離散項目預計不會重複，我們還預計由於時間原因會產生一些額外的輔助維護成本。預計第二季計畫內維護停工次數將更多，導致成本增加 3,300 萬美元。

Depreciation expense was higher by $208 million in the first quarter, primarily due to accelerated depreciation associated with the closure of our Red River Mill. It also includes two months of depreciation for the DS Smith North American assets.

第一季折舊費用增加了 2.08 億美元，主要原因是關閉 Red River Mill 導致折舊加速。它還包括 DS Smith 北美資產兩個月的折舊。

Finally, the adjusted EBITDA contribution from our DS Smith operations in North America was $7 million for two months of the first quarter. Our second quarter outlook reflects three months of results for an additional $25 million.

最後，第一季兩個月來自北美 DS Smith 業務的調整後 EBITDA 貢獻為 700 萬美元。我們對第二季業績的展望反映了三個月的額外 2500 萬美元的業績。

Now turning to slide 14. Let me take a moment and share our view on the cost and commercial initiatives that we believe will enable us to achieve our stated 2025 adjusted EBITDA target in North America. As a result of our Red River Mill closure at the end of the first quarter, we expect these mill costs to wind down over the remainder of the year.

現在翻到第 14 張投影片。請容許我花點時間分享我們對成本和商業措施的看法，我們認為這些措施將使我們能夠實現我們在北美提出的 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 目標。由於我們在第一季末關閉了紅河磨坊，我們預計這些磨坊的成本將在今年剩餘時間內逐漸下降。

In addition, we'll continue to see benefits associated with system optimization and productivity improvement across our mill and box network. Lastly, we expect to realize synergies associated with the DS Smith acquisition.

此外，我們將繼續看到與整個工廠和包裝箱網路的系統優化和生產力提高相關的好處。最後，我們期望實現與 DS Smith 收購相關的綜效。

Regarding our commercial initiatives, we anticipate full realization from the February price index move along with seasonally higher volume in the second half of this year. We made good progress in the first quarter, growing with our customers and expect to close the volume gap to market by the fourth quarter.

關於我們的商業舉措，我們預計今年下半年 2 月物價指數的變動將全面實現，同時交易量也將季節性增加。我們在第一季取得了良好的進展，與客戶共同成長，預計到第四季將縮小與市場的銷售差距。

Moving on to our Packaging Solutions EMEA business on slide 15. We are excited to join forces with the DS Smith team and expect to benefit from their strong customer-oriented and innovation-driven culture. We are laser-focused on managing a seamless integration while accelerating significant synergy opportunities.

前往第 15 張投影片上我們的 EMEA 包裝解決方案業務。我們很高興與 DS Smith 團隊合作，並期望受益於他們強大的以客戶為中心和創新驅動的文化。我們專注於管理無縫集成，同時加速重要的協同機會。

As you can see, first quarter results benefited from two months of the former DS Smith European legacy business. In addition, we realized benefits from energy incentives received in the quarter as a result of energy efficiency projects implemented by our team at our Madrid mill.

如您所見，第一季的業績受益於前 DS Smith 歐洲遺留業務兩個月的業績。此外，由於我們的團隊在馬德里工廠實施了能源效率項目，我們在本季獲得了能源激勵，並從中受益。

As Andy mentioned earlier, we had expected an improving market environment coming into the year. However, market demand was softer than expected in the first quarter. We will continue to monitor this environment and focus on the things that we can control.

正如安迪之前提到的，我們預計今年的市場環境將會改善。不過，第一季市場需求弱於預期。我們將繼續監控這一環境並專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

Staying with our Packaging Solutions EMEA business and looking at the details on slide 16. We are following a similar format at the EPS line with the legacy DS Smith results largely reflected in the D&A and legacy EBITDA buckets.

繼續關注我們的包裝解決方案 EMEA 業務並查看幻燈片 16 上的詳細資訊。我們在 EPS 線上採用了類似的格式，其中舊版 DS Smith 的結果主要反映在 D&A 和舊版 EBITDA 桶中。

For IP's legacy packaging business EMEA, price and mix was lower by $8 million sequentially from the realization of prior price decreases. Operations and costs were $26 million favorable sequentially, primarily due to lower incentive compensation and medical benefits expenses and a onetime benefit from energy incentives on efficiency projects in the business, which will not repeat in the second quarter.

對於 IP 的傳統封裝業務 EMEA 而言，價格和產品組合較先前的價格下降連續下降了 800 萬美元。營運和成本比上一季減少了 2,600 萬美元，主要由於激勵薪酬和醫療福利費用減少，以及業務效率項目能源激勵帶來的一次性收益，而這種收益在第二季度不會再次出現。

Depreciation in the first quarter includes $91 million from two months of DS Smith, in the second quarter, we will have one additional month of depreciation of approximately $45 million. Lastly, the EBITDA contribution from the legacy DS Smith business in EMEA was $104 million for two months of the first quarter. Our second quarter outlook reflects three months of results for an additional $85 million.

第一季的折舊包括 DS Smith 兩個月的 9,100 萬美元，第二季我們將再有一個月的折舊，約 4,500 萬美元。最後，第一季兩個月，來自 EMEA 地區傳統 DS Smith 業務的 EBITDA 貢獻為 1.04 億美元。我們對第二季業績的展望反映了三個月的額外 8,500 萬美元的業績。

Now turning to slide 17. Let me also share our view on the cost and commercial initiatives we expect to use to deliver our 2025 adjusted EBITDA target. We have launched our 80/20 performance system in Europe in multiple regions and are pursuing our implementation plan across the mill and box networks there.

現在翻到第 17 張投影片。我也想分享我們對實現 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 目標所採用的成本和商業措施的看法。我們已在歐洲多個地區推出了 80/20 績效系統，並正在那裡的工廠和包裝箱網路中推行我們的實施計畫。

By leveraging 80/20 and the strengths of the combined business, we believe there is significant profit improvement opportunities ahead. We also expect benefits from recent price increases to flow through this business.

透過利用 80/20 和合併後業務的優勢，我們相信未來將有顯著的利潤提升機會。我們也預期近期價格上漲帶來的好處將惠及該業務。

Turning to our Global Cellulose Fibers business on slide 18. As you can see from the charts, the business generated strong adjusted EBITDA improvement as a result of strategic actions focused on the attractive fluff pulp market. while optimizing their mill footprint and significantly reducing their cost structure.

轉向第 18 張幻燈片上的我們的全球纖維素纖維業務。從圖表中可以看出，由於採取了專注於具有吸引力的絨毛漿市場的策略行動，該業務的調整後 EBITDA 實現了強勁成長。同時優化工廠佔地面積並顯著降低成本結構。

As I turn to slide 19, continuing on with the Cellulose Fibers business. Price and mix was higher sequentially by $28 million in the first quarter due to energy credit sales and higher fluff mix. In the second quarter, we expect favorable price realization from prior index movements.

我翻到第 19 張投影片，繼續討論纖維素纖維業務。由於能源信貸銷售和更高的絨毛組合，第一季的價格和組合環比上漲了 2800 萬美元。在第二季度，我們預計先前的指數變動將帶來有利的價格實現。

Operations and costs were favorable sequentially by $23 million due to improved mill performance and lower costs associated with employee incentive compensation. We expect sustained mill performance to continue into the second quarter.

由於工廠績效提高和與員工激勵薪酬相關的成本降低，營運和成本比上一季下降了 2,300 萬美元。我們預計工廠的良好業績將持續到第二季​​。

Planned maintenance outages in the first quarter were lower than planned due to moving one of our outages into the second quarter. With that change, we expect outage costs to be approximately $36 million higher in the second quarter and will be through approximately 80% of the outage schedule in the first half of this year.

由於我們將其中一次停機維護移至第二季度，因此第一季的計劃維護停機次數低於計劃。由於這項變化，我們預計第二季的停電成本將增加約 3,600 萬美元，並將完成今年上半年約 80% 的停電計畫。

And finally, we had a lower depreciation expense in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter, which included $222 million of accelerated depreciation associated with the Georgetown mill closure. Turning to slide 20. As you can see, we expect strong earnings improvement in the second half as we continue to ramp down costs associated with the Georgetown mill closure.

最後，第一季的折舊費用低於第四季度，其中包括與喬治敦工廠關閉相關的 2.22 億美元加速折舊。翻到第 20 張投影片。正如您所看到的，隨著我們繼續降低與喬治敦工廠關閉相關的成本，我們預計下半年獲利將強勁成長。

In addition, costs associated with planned maintenance outages are expected to be $96 million lower in the second half of this year. Lastly, we are continuing to implement previously published price increases across this business.

此外，預計今年下半年與計畫維護停機相關的成本將減少 9,600 萬美元。最後，我們將繼續在整個業務範圍內實施先前公佈的價格上調。

With that, let me turn it back over to Andy. Andy?

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給安迪。安迪？

Thanks, Lance. I'm on slide 21. What we've outlined here is the momentum we're building in our North American and EMEA packaging businesses. For this analysis, we've excluded GTF, you can get a sense of the progress in the core. We have clear line of sight to sustainable earnings improvement and feel very good about our progress.

謝謝，蘭斯。我在第 21 張投影片。我們在這裡概述的是我們在北美和歐洲、中東和非洲地區包裝業務中建立的發展勢頭。為了進行此分析，我們排除了 GTF，您可以了解核心的進展。我們對可持續盈利的改善有著清晰的認識，並對我們的進展感到非常滿意。

We're building execution possible across the company and are transforming IP into a performance-driven culture. Based on the actions we've taken, our run rate for the second half of the year will be approximately $4 billion annually adjusted EBITDA in the core packaging business. This positions us well, putting us on a path to achieve our $5.5 billion to $6 billion target.

我們正在整個公司範圍內建立執行力，並將 IP 轉變為以績效為導向的文化。根據我們採取的行動，我們下半年核心包裝業務的調整後 EBITDA 預計約為每年 40 億美元。這為我們帶來了良好的條件，讓我們能夠實現 55 億至 60 億美元的目標。

I'm now turning to slide 22. I'm confident we're on the right path with the right people and the right approach. 80/20 is how we work. Our performance system drives right through results by focusing our strategy and execution on the critical view, not the trivial many.

我現在翻到第 22 張投影片。我堅信，我們擁有合適的人才，採用正確的方法，走在正確的道路上。 80/20 是我們的工作方式。我們的績效系統透過將我們的策略和執行重點放在關鍵觀點上而不是瑣碎的觀點上來直接推動結果。

We put our focus and investment against our best opportunities to win for our customers, our people and our owners. We will remain disciplined in driving advantaged cost position, service and innovation excellence and winning profitable market share.

我們將重點和投資放在為我們的客戶、員工和業主贏得勝利的最佳機會上。我們將繼續嚴格遵守紀律，保持優勢成本地位，提供卓越服務和創新，贏得有利可圖的市場份額。

Before we turn to questions, I want to thank our 65,000 colleagues for their dedication to our transformation and commitment to win for our customers, our owners and our fellow teammates. It's serve you that we have the opportunity to build something very special.

在我們開始提問之前，我想感謝我們 65,000 名同事為我們的轉型所做的貢獻，以及為我們的客戶、我們的所有者和我們的隊友贏得勝利的承諾。我們有機會打造一些非常特別的東西，這對您來說是件好事。

With that, operator, let's now pause and take questions.

接線員，現在讓我們暫停一下並回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Phil Ng, Jeffries.

Phil Ng，杰弗里斯。

Sorry, I had an issue from my phone. Well, I appreciate all the great color you guys shared in the deck and Lance looking forward to working with you. encouraging you guys reiterate your full year guide. I guess, kind of kick things off, Andy. I think you said demand trends were spotty, as you would imagine, February and March and things kind of stabilize in April.

抱歉，我的手機出現了問題。好吧，我很感謝你們在這副牌中分享的所有精彩色彩，Lance 期待與你們合作。鼓勵你們重申你們的全年指南。我想，安迪，事情就這樣開始了。我想您說過，正如您所想像的，二月和三月的需求趨勢不穩定，而四月份的情況會趨於穩定。

So my question is to kind of hit the full year EBITDA guide you have laid out, whether it's the midpoint or the low end of the full year guide, what kind of demand assumptions are you assuming whether it's North America and Europe?

所以我的問題是，為了達到您制定的全年 EBITDA 指南，無論是全年指南的中點還是低端，您假設了什麼樣的需求假設，無論是北美還是歐洲？

And how are order patterns kind of shaping up at this point? And you also gave us a downside recession there. Any color around how we should think about where EBITDA is going to shake out in that environment.

目前訂單模式是怎麼形成的？而且你們也為我們帶來了經濟衰退。在這樣的環境下，我們該如何看待 EBITDA 的趨勢？

Yeah. You bet, Phil. And great question. And obviously, the question we're really focused in on outside of our own self-help. In terms of the demand environment right now, if demand stays where it is, we feel confident that we'll land in between that 3.5% and 4%.

是的。當然，菲爾。這個問題問得好。顯然，我們真正關注的問題與我們自身的自助無關。就目前的需求環境而言，如果需求保持不變，我們有信心達到 3.5% 到 4% 之間。

If it were to stay that way. And right now, in April, it has stabilized. That being said, I think we've all paid attention to the consumer sentiment and the business sentiment out there. And obviously, the new numbers that came out this morning, first quarter if we see meaningful weakness from here, it's going to stretch us. There's no doubt about it, right?

如果情況一直是這樣的話。而現在，四月份，情況已經穩定下來。話雖如此，我認為我們都專注於消費者情緒和商業情緒。顯然，根據今天早上公佈的新數據，如果我們看到第一季出現明顯的疲軟，我們就會面臨壓力。毫無疑問，對吧？

That gets really challenging if we see a tick down of a couple more, a couple of hundred basis points. If you recall at the Investor Day, we were talking about a market growth rate, particularly in North America of kind of 1% to 1.5%, somewhere in there.

如果我們看到利率再下降幾百個基點，那就真的很有挑戰性了。如果你還記得，在投資者日，我們談論的是市場成長率，特別是北美的市場成長率在 1% 到 1.5% 之間。

And given what happened in the marketplace, I think the everyone saw the revision upward yesterday of the overall box demand in North America, which was down 2%. So that swing, call it, 3 point, 3.5 point swing between expectations literally a few months ago.

考慮到市場上發生的情況，我想每個人都看到了昨天北美整體盒子需求的上調，該需求下降了 2%。因此，幾個月前，這種波動就被稱為預期之間的 3 點或 3.5 點波動。

So if you went back to January, I think everyone felt pretty confident in that 1% to 1.5%. And so we've seen a pretty consistent tick down here really in two steps.

因此，如果回顧一月份的情況，我認為每個人都對 1% 到 1.5% 的成長率充滿信心。因此，我們看到這裡的趨勢相當一致，實際上是分兩步驟進行的。

One was actually before our Investor Day. We saw that a little bit. I mentioned that at the Investor Day. And then obviously, the following week is when things kind of the intensity ramped up around trade discussions. And we saw another step down after that.

一次實際上是在我們的投資者日之前。我們看到了一點。我在投資者日上提到過這一點。顯然，接下來的一周，貿易談判的緊張程度加劇。此後，我們又看到進一步的下滑。

But importantly, Phil, and not directly to your question, but I think everyone ought to keep this in context. That gap, we said that we would close throughout the year, kind of a U-shaped curve in terms of gap to market, we definitely started on the other side, and we're about 100 basis points better than what we had expected.

但重要的是，菲爾，這不是直接回答你的問題，而是我認為每個人都應該結合上下文來理解這一點。我們說過，我們將在全年彌合這一差距，就市場差距而言，這是一種 U 形曲線，我們肯定是從另一邊開始的，而且比我們預期的要好 100 個基點。

If you recall, I had said I thought we'd be down about 7% in the first quarter. We were down 8%, but that's with a 3.5 point swing to market, right? And so the market swung that 3.5 points or 3 points relative to where our expectation was. And so I feel really good about our gap closure to market.

如果你還記得的話，我曾說過我認為我們第一季的銷售額將下降約 7%。我們下降了 8%，但這是市場波動 3.5 個百分點的結果，對嗎？因此，市場相對於我們的預期波動了 3.5 個點或 3 個點。因此，我對於我們縮小與市場的差距感到非常高興。

Finally, to put a point on your question, look, this is all going to be about the variance that we're talking about right now is all going to be driven by the top end of the market. I think our initiatives are in excellent stead relative to the commercial side and on the cost side in North America.

最後，針對你的問題，你看，這一切都與我們現在討論的差異有關，而這些差異都將由高端市場驅動。我認為我們的措施在北美的商業和成本方面都非常有利。

And effectively, right, if we see a weakening market, there are a handful of levers that we're prepared to pull. And frankly, some of them were pulling down. So one is to accelerate our strategy of cost out, right?

實際上，如果我們看到市場疲軟，我們準備採取一些措施。坦白說，其中一些正在被拉下馬。所以一是加快我們的成本削減策略，對嗎？

We're going as fast as we can. What would allow us to go faster, right, if you end up with a demand gap, you have more options around excess capacity. And so you can move quicker around those things. That's not obviously not the situation we want.

我們正在盡可能快地前進。什麼能讓我們發展得更快呢？對吧？如果最終出現需求缺口，那麼在產能過剩問題上，我們有更多的選擇。這樣你就可以更快地處理這些事情。這顯然不是我們想要的情況。

But we have a full schedule laid out. If you look at it, if we had kind of a big program chart in front of you you'd see the next 2.5, 3 years laid out of execution points of how we're laying that out across our system in North America and in Europe. And so we would just pull some stuff forward.

但我們已經安排好了滿滿的行程。如果你看一下，如果我們在你面前有一張大的專案圖表，你會看到未來 2.5 年、3 年內我們在北美和歐洲的系統中如何佈局的執行點。因此我們只需將一些東西向前推進即可。

On the commercial side, I'm really encouraged by a couple of things. One that gap closure I talked about, but what enabled that gap closure is winning in local markets. We actually saw in the first quarter, we were on the positive side of the ledger in terms of winning market share in the first quarter locally.

在商業方面，有幾件事確實讓我感到鼓舞。我談到了縮小差距，但縮小差距的關鍵在於贏得本地市場。我們實際上在第一季就看到，我們在贏得第一季本地市場份額方面處於積極的狀態。

So in that kind of niche local business, that's a really good sign that the focus we put in on the right customers with the right people and the right assets, the right incentive systems is starting to pay off. With the gap to market was all on kind of large contract business that has multiyear cycles.

因此，在這種利基本地業務中，這是一個非常好的跡象，表明我們關注的是正確的客戶、正確的人員、正確的資產和正確的激勵系統開始獲得回報。市場差距在於具有多年周期的大型合約業務。

And so these are decisions that were made last year and even two years ago that we're now lapping into the back half of the year. So accelerate the cost out if things weaken and keep the focus on commercially on winning market share, that's where we really need to be Phil.

這些都是去年甚至兩年前做出的決定，現在我們已經進入下半年。因此，如果情況惡化，就加速降低成本，並將重點放在商業上以贏得市場份額，這才是我們真正需要的。

Super. So if I heard you correctly, to $3.5 billion to $4 billion EBITDA target as long as demand is kind of in the ZIP code of, call it, down 2%, if I heard you correctly, you feel pretty good about.

極好的。因此，如果我沒有聽錯的話，只要需求處於郵遞區號範圍內，EBITDA 目標就會達到 35 億美元至 40 億美元，也就是說，下降 2%，如果我沒有聽錯的話，你會感覺相當不錯。

If you look at where we are right now, Phil, if you kind of look at these demand levels with normal seasonal patterns, we would land in that $3.5 billion to $4 billion. It would be towards the mid- to lower end to be clear, but it would be in that $3.5 billion to $4 billion range.

菲爾，如果你看看我們現在的狀況，如果你按照正常的季節性模式來看待這些需求水平，我們的收入將達到 35 億美元到 40 億美元。顯然，這個數字應該處於中低端，但應該在 35 億美元到 40 億美元之間。

The upside scenario, right, is if we get some solutions to some of these issues, we've seen it already a couple of different times as things have gyrated that sentiment can turn pretty quickly. And look, there is enormous amount of pent-up demand to outlay capital in a lot of places throughout the year.

好的一面是，如果我們能找到一些針對這些問題的解決方案，那麼我們已經多次看到，隨著事態的發展，情緒可以很快轉變。而且，許多地方全年都存在著大量被壓抑的資本支出需求。

I think the excitement that we saw in January was excitement around the pent-up demand around business investment and even consumer sentiment to a lesser degree, but that business demand is what's really curtailed that has been that sentiment. And everyone I talk to my peers, customers, investment community, everyone is experiencing that.

我認為，我們在一月份看到的興奮是圍繞著商業投資甚至消費者情緒的被壓抑的需求而產生的興奮，但商業需求才是真正抑制這種情緒的因素。我與同事、客戶、投資界交談的每個人都經歷過這種情況。

And obviously, we're a really good barometer of what's happening in the economy. So yes, you've nailed that exactly right in terms of your expectation of where we would land depending upon the demand scenario.

顯然，我們是經濟狀況的一個很好的晴雨表。是的，就我們根據需求情境所達到的結果而言，您對我們的預期完全正確。

And then given the tariffs and trade flow dynamic, your pulp business, I would imagine, is probably most sensitive to tariffs because about half of that business goes to Asia, a big part of that is China. It doesn't sound like demand has been impacted.

然後考慮到關稅和貿易流動的動態，我想，您的紙漿業務可能對關稅最為敏感，因為大約一半的業務流向亞洲，其中很大一部分是中國。聽起來需求並未受到影響。

I mean what you're guiding is demand is pretty stable. But curious, what do you see on the order side of things? Has that impacted your conversations as you kind of looked from a strategic review.

我的意思是，你所引導的需求是相當穩定的。但令人好奇的是，您在秩序方面看到了什麼？從策略角度來看，這是否對您的談話產生了影響？

And then just lastly, on the containerboard business, appreciating you export a lot less, but help us think through the potential impact for reciprocal tariffs on your containerboard business.

最後，關於箱板紙業務，感謝您的出口量大幅減少，但請幫助我們思考互惠關稅對貴公司箱板紙業務的潛在影響。

So Phil, let me answer that question directly, and then let me do a little bit of a side turn and just talk about impact of tariffs just generally. I think that's important to note. So (inaudible) yes, we've got a bunch of business that goes to Asia, but you're talking about mid-single digits risk from a demand scenario based on people having to go in different directions around where supply is.

所以菲爾，讓我直接回答這個問題，然後讓我稍微岔話題，談談關稅的整體影響。我認為這一點值得注意。所以（聽不清楚）是的，我們有很多業務涉及亞洲，但您談論的是在需求情境下基於人們不得不前往供應地不同方向而產生的中等個位數風險。

The reality is there aren't easy replacements. You're talking about really, really poor secondary replacements that those choices will be made on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum in places like Asia. But generally, it's not like there are big alternatives you can just go jump to.

現實情況是，沒有容易的替代品。你說的是真正糟糕的二級替代品，這些選擇將在亞洲等社會經濟水平較低的地區做出。但一般來說，並不是有很多可以讓你直接跳到的替代方案。

And so we think there's kind of mid-single digits of risk to the top line and then obviously, how that flows through based on that the flow of goods across the globe. And then a lot in the resi mid-single digits, you probably have an increased amount that's going to find its way into other parts of the marketplace that frankly, are constrained right now.

因此，我們認為營業收入面臨中等個位數的風險，而且顯然，這種風險將如何根據全球貨物流動情況而變化。然後，在中等個位數的剩餘數量中，可能會有增加的數量，這些數量將進入目前受到限制的其他市場部分。

So in that business, there are some pretty meaningful capacity constraints in that business globally. So you'll have some relief from Asia. I don't like the relief. We have some relief from Asia.

因此，在全球範圍內，該業務存在一些相當嚴重的產能限制。因此，亞洲的情況會為你帶來一些緩解。我不喜歡這種解脫。亞洲為我們帶來了一些安慰。

The market is still healthy in other places. So I feel like we're generally going to be okay. Specific to your question of how it may affect the process. Look, we're not Pollyannas. So obviously, people are going to look at that.

其他地方的市場依然健康。所以我覺得我們整體來說會沒事的。具體到您的問題，它會如何影響這個過程。瞧，我們並不是盲目樂觀的人。顯然，人們會關注這一點。

We've had very good interest so far. People are deep into diligence so that process is ongoing. But I've said in the past many times, and I'll reiterate again, this is about value. This has more volatility than we like, and it's not our core packaging business.

到目前為止，我們已經獲得了極大的關注。人們全心全意地努力，以便這個過程可以持續下去。但我過去已經說過很多次了，我再重申一遍，這是關於價值的問題。它的波動性超出了我們的預期，而且它也不是我們的核心包裝業務。

But as I've said many times, we're not going to give it away. And so it's a matter of getting the value that we deserve for the business. On tariffs more broadly, and I think most people know this, we don't have a lot of direct tariff effect, right?

但正如我多次說過的，我們不會放棄它。因此，這關乎我們為企業獲取應得的價值。就關稅而言，更廣泛地說，我想大多數人都知道這一點，我們沒有太多直接的關稅效應，對嗎？

So we don't ship a lot of stuff across borders that's going to be impacted by the tariffs. Pretty much, I mean, almost all of the impact that we're going to see or the vast majority of the impact that we're going to see is going to be second order effects.

因此，我們不會運送大量會受到關稅影響的跨境貨物。基本上，我的意思是，我們將要看到的幾乎所有影響或我們將要看到的絕大多數影響都將是二階效應。

And really what happens to demand, therefore, what happens to price and what could happen to inflation. Obviously, the scenario that everybody is concerned about is weakening demand plus inflation, we don't see that scenario playing out so far.

那麼，需求真正發生什麼變化，價格又會發生什麼變化，通貨膨脹又會發生什麼變化。顯然，每個人都擔心的情況是需求減弱加上通貨膨脹，但目前我們還沒有看到這種情況發生。

There's no evidence of that, as you guys all know. We tend to have a natural hedge if you get weakening demand, you tend to get weakening commodity prices, so that offsets itself in many ways.

大家都知道，沒有證據證明這一點。如果需求減弱，大宗商品價格就會減弱，我們往往會採取自然對沖，這樣就可以在很多方面抵消損失。

But that's the biggest thing that we're concerned about is weakening demand and then a third order effect of price and then potentially if you get a spike in inflation that's the kind of really dark scenario that at this stage we don't see. But you got to at least consider it. You have to think about it.

但我們最擔心的是需求減弱，然後是價格的三階效應，然後是潛在的通貨膨脹飆升，這是我們現階段還沒有看到的那種非常糟糕的情況。但你至少得考慮一下。你必須考慮一下。

I think one of the big lessons that we've learned, all of us have learned who have been around for a while with some of these larger shocks to the system is take advantage of it, right? And you hate to do it, but when bad things happen like this accelerate your strategy, double down, if those folks who, frankly, abandoned their strategies they get in trouble.

我認為，我們所有人，包括那些經歷過系統較大衝擊的人，學到的最重要的一課就是要利用它，對嗎？你不願意這樣做，但是當這樣的壞事發生時，你會加速你的策略，加倍努力，如果那些人坦率地放棄了他們的策略，他們就會陷入麻煩。

And we will leverage our capabilities. We'll take the cost out. We'll use our balance sheet like we did in the first quarter. Obviously, we expect cash flows to get a heck of a lot better through the back half of the year. There's no reason to believe it won't.

我們將發揮我們的能力。我們將扣除成本。我們將像第一季一樣使用資產負債表。顯然，我們預計今年下半年現金流將會大幅改善。沒有理由相信它不會發生。

We want to protect our dividend, and we want to execute that strategy. And so look, if I think of three or four years from now, do I think that this moment in time is going to affect the economic outlook?

我們希望保護我們的股息，我們希望執行這項策略。那麼，如果我考慮三、四年後的情況，我是否認為此時此刻會影響經濟前景？

Of course, it will. Do I think we'll be basically where we thought we'd be two months ago from global economy? Yes, I do. And so we've got to stick to the strategy, and we got to execute.

當然會。我是否認為我們的全球經濟狀況將基本回到我們兩個月前所認為的水平？是的，我願意。所以我們必須堅持這個戰略，而且必須執行。

Really great cost. Thank you guys.

確實花費巨大。謝謝你們。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Truist Securities 的 Mike Roxland。

Yeah, thank you, Andy, Lance and Mark, congrats on the progress. Just wanted to follow up with you on that market position, gaining share in North American markets in local, could you provide us some more color about the share gains that you had there?

是的，謝謝你們，安迪、蘭斯和馬克，恭喜你們的進展。只是想跟進一下您的市場地位，在北美當地市場獲得份額，您能否向我們提供一些有關您在那裡獲得的份額增長的更多信息？

Where was your share prior? Where does it stand now? And what are you doing to achieve those aging updating sales force and putting reliability?

您的份額之前在哪裡？現在情況如何？您正在採取什麼措施來更新這些老化的銷售團隊並提高可靠性？

Yeah. So Mike, the way to kind of separate our business is I would put it's between 60%, 70% or so of our business in there is what you would call national or super regional accounts, right? Those are large accounts that you're doing business over multiple geographies.

是的。所以麥克，我把我們的業務分成 60%、70% 左右，也就是所謂的全國或超級區域帳戶，對嗎？這些都是您在多個地區開展業務的大客戶。

That's 60% to 70% of our business. And the only reason I'd say 60% to 70%, you get the gray area once you start parsing it at those more local levels.

這占我們業務的60%到70%。我說 60% 到 70% 的唯一原因是，一旦你開始在更本地的層面上進行解析，你就會看到灰色區域。

So you've got kind of 30%, 40% of the business that's really local. And what I mean by that is you've got business with the multinational consumer products company and then you got business with Bob's mushroom factory.

所以，你的業務中大約有 30% 到 40% 是真正在地化的。我的意思是，你與跨國消費品公司有業務往來，然後又與鮑勃的蘑菇工廠有業務往來。

And you do, right? And those are really important customers to ours. And frankly, coming out of the pandemic is business boomed in our industry and capacity got constrained. We made a series of choices about choosing where we were going to allocate our capacity and frankly, what service levels faltered and we didn't invest back into our business the way we should have, we disappointed a lot of those small to medium-sized customers.

你確實這麼做了，對嗎？這些都是我們非常重要的客戶。坦白說，疫情過後，我們產業的業務蓬勃發展，但產能卻受到了限制。我們做出了一系列選擇，決定如何分配我們的產能，坦白說，哪些服務水準下降了，我們沒有以應有的方式重新投資於我們的業務，我們讓許多中小型客戶感到失望。

And so we didn't have capacity to offer them. So the whole negative cycle of the negative sales cycle took effect plus kind of weak service offering. The improvement started before I started, I'd love to take all the credit for it, but I can't. Tom and team did an amazing job and painful, right?

所以我們沒有能力為他們提供服務。因此，負面銷售週期加上薄弱的服務提供，整個負面循環就開始發揮作用。在我開始之前，進步就已經開始了，我很想把所有的功勞都歸於自己，但我不能。湯姆和他的團隊做了出色的工作，而且很辛苦，對吧？

They made some really brave choices over the last couple of years. but the right choices, which were to reinvest back into the business to drive service and reliability, our on-time delivery has gone over two years from literally the high 80s to the high 90s, in that two year time frame, and we've talked about the impact to Net Promoter Score.

在過去的幾年裡，他們做出了一些非常勇敢的選擇。但正確的選擇是重新投資於業務以推動服務和可靠性，我們的準時交貨率在兩年內從 80 多歲上升到 90 多歲，在這兩年的時間內，我們已經討論了對淨推薦值的影響。

And so as our salespeople, our local salespeople, we think we have two sales forces, right? We have a national sales force in North America. We have a regional or a key account sales force in Europe. And then in both geographies that you have people calling on those local sales, those local accounts. And so we've got a lot more focus.

因此，作為我們的銷售人員，我們的當地銷售人員，我們認為我們有兩支銷售隊伍，對嗎？我們在北美擁有一支全國銷售團隊。我們在歐洲擁有一支區域或大客戶銷售團隊。然後在這兩個地區，都有人拜訪當地的銷售人員和當地客戶。因此，我們的關注點更加集中。

We've hired more people. We've radically improved our service and reliability through investment and frankly, segmentation, right, we've dedicated people to the right customer segment, so you don't have confusion as you're servicing people.

我們僱用了更多人。我們透過投資和細分，從根本上改善了我們的服務和可靠性，對的，我們把人員分配到正確的客戶群體，這樣你在為人們提供服務時就不會感到困惑。

And so we started to see that turnaround in that marketplace it's modest, to be clear, we're not spiking the football yet or hold the trophy. But we've seen consistent progress. And I think back to last summer when I first was looking at this, we were losing market share in that area, right?

因此，我們開始看到市場出現回暖，但幅度不大，需要明確的是，我們還沒有踢出精彩的足球，也沒有捧起獎盃。但我們看到了持續的進步。我回想起去年夏天，當我第一次看到這個問題時，我們在該地區的市場份額正在下降，對嗎？

And that small- to medium-sized local customer, we were losing market share, and we're now holding our own, and that's a good sign.

而對於中小型本地客戶，我們之前正在失去市場份額，但現在我們已經守住了自己的市場份額，這是一個好兆頭。

That's great color. My follow-up, I just wanted to get a sense, given the slowdown are in February and March, can you give us a sense of your operating rate in North America in 1Q, where does it stand now that things have stabilized and has the weakness really afford you an opportunity to further assess the portfolio?

顏色真棒。我的後續問題是，我只是想了解一下，鑑於 2 月和 3 月的經濟放緩，您能否告訴我們您第一季度在北美的運營率情況，現在情況已經穩定下來，並且疲軟是否真的為您提供了進一步評估投資組合的機會？

Do see much knows which cost plans are performing and whether there's potential for, let's say, further rightsizing consolidation?

您是否知道哪些成本計劃正在執行，以及是否有可能進一步進行適當規模合併？

Yeah, Mike. So if you think about that, just where we are on the demand side, what I would say we're seeing so far in April is stability from, if you look at kind of last part of February, right, that's in February, we probably saw the step down March after the tariff discussions kind of kicked in.

是的，麥克。因此，如果您考慮一下，就需求方面而言，我想說，到目前為止，我們在 4 月份看到的是穩定的，如果您看一下 2 月底，也就是 2 月份，我們可能在 3 月份看到了關稅討論開始後的下降。

We saw that a little bit of a step. All through April, we've now seen stability from that second step down. We've seen that stability. If we just assume that, that's what hold, that's where I'm offering that guidance of where I think we'll land for the year.

我們看到了這一點。整個四月，我們已經看到第二步的穩定性。我們已經看到了這種穩定性。如果我們只是假設這一點，那就是事實，這就是我為我們今年的預期目標提供的指導。

In terms of your question of does it allow us to rethink it, the way I would think about it is there are very obvious choices in our business around where you want to be and where you want to grow your capability to win. There are also some very obvious choices about what you need to get out of.

至於您問的這是否允許我們重新思考這個問題，我的想法是，在我們的業務中，圍繞著你想達到什麼水平以及你想在哪些方面提升自己的製勝能力，存在著非常明顯的選擇。關於你需要擺脫什麼，還有一些非常明顯的選擇。

And you've seen us move aggressively really starting since the fall of last year. You've seen us move for footprint optimization to address that. And so with a weakening demand curve, you have to believe that something is structurally different to say I'm going to do more than what I intended to do over the three year window.

你已經看到我們從去年秋天就開始積極行動了。您已經看到我們採取措施優化足跡來解決這個問題。因此，隨著需求曲線的減弱，你必須相信某些東西在結構上有所不同，才能說我將在三年內做比我打算做的更多的事情。

I don't see that being the case. What I see, however, is the ability to pull forward some of the things that you're working on. So you can pull forward some of the footprint optimization efforts that you're working on.

我認為事實並非如此。然而，我看到的是推動你正在從事的一些事情的能力。因此，您可以提前進行一些正在進行的足跡優化工作。

But ultimately, as I think in 2027, do I think what's going on is going to radically change the overall demand picture and therefore, the assets required at that end point to win in the marketplace. I don't think it materially has.

但最終，我認為到 2027 年，發生的事情將從根本上改變整體需求狀況，從而改變在市場上獲勝所需的資產。我認為實際上並沒有。

That could change. Let me look if we go into a really aggressive dramatic change in the global environment that isn't that becomes systemic, all bets are off. That's a different deal. Do I expect that? I do not. Am I considering it?

這種情況可能會改變。讓我看看，如果我們進入一個真正劇烈的全球環境變化，而這種變化又不是系統性的，那麼所有的預測都會失效。那是另一回事。我期望這樣嗎？我不知道。我正在考慮這個嗎？

Yes, I am, because you have to or you have to at least think about that as a possibility, but I think the probability is relatively low. And so where we're playing right now is on the April demand is where we are. Let's see what happens.

是的，因為你必須或至少必須將其視為一種可能性，但我認為這種可能性相對較低。因此，我們現在所處的位置是四月的需求。讓我們看看會發生什麼。

We know the business sentiment, consumer sentiment are negative. And so what I'm going to say is we have a negative bias relative to what the demand picture is likely to play out. And so therefore, we're playing stronger offense on dealing with those things.

我們知道商業情緒、消費者情緒都是負面的。所以我想說的是，我們對需求前景可能出現的情況有負面偏見。因此，我們將採取更強硬的攻勢來處理這些問題。

But look, this is an environment, and we've all lived in it where one day, the world is coming to an end, and the next day is. And so given that you can't gyrate a 65,000 person company with literally 400 locations across the world and gyrate based on that stuff. You got to think about what business do I want to be in, what is my strategy? Can I afford what I want to do. I've got a balance affordability and aggressiveness, but you got to take strategy.

但是，看看吧，我們都生活在這樣的環境中，有一天，世界末日即將來臨，第二天又會來臨。因此，鑑於你不能讓一家擁有 65,000 名員工、在全球 400 個地點設有辦事處的公司根據這些東西進行調整。你必須思考我想從事什麼行業，我的策略是什麼？我能負擔得起我想做的事情嗎？我在承受能力和進取心之間取得了平衡，但你必須採取策略。

That's very helpful thank you. And good luck to you.

這非常有幫助，謝謝。祝你好運。

Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

馬克‧溫特勞布 (Mark Weintraub)，海港研究夥伴。

Great, thanks for all the color so far. Just sort of coming back to understanding the bridge from first half to second half and first half, I think it's like $1.55 billion or so of EBITDA based on what you did in the first quarter in the guide.

太好了，謝謝你迄今為止的所有顏色。回到從上半年到下半年的過渡階段，根據指南中第一季的情況，我認為上半年的 EBITDA 約為 15.5 億美元。

So it kind of suggests like a $500 million, $600 million pickup in the second half and now you've spoken, I mean as you point out, there's less maintenance outage, I think that's like $130 million, and you got DS Smith for an extra month, which is maybe another $90 million, $100 million or whatever there.

因此，這有點暗示著下半年會有 5 億美元、6 億美元的收入，現在您已經說了，我的意思是，正如您所指出的，維護中斷減少了，我認為這就像 1.3 億美元，而您又獲得了 DS Smith 額外一個月的時間，這可能是另外 9000 萬、1 億美元或其他數字。

And so the balance, that $250 million, $350 million presumably is primarily from the cost outs, et cetera. But what I did notice is that, you also have a pretty small increase for price mix in 2Q vs 1Q for your North American Packaging Solutions business. Can you kind of explain that? And is there more to come in the second half of the year as what's already been published in the trade rags gets implemented?

因此，餘額 2.5 億美元、3.5 億美元大概主要來自成本支出等等。但我確實注意到，與第一季相比，你們北美包裝解決方案業務第二季的價格組合也有相當小幅成長。你能解釋一下嗎？隨著產業新聞已經公佈的內容實施，下半年還會有更多措施嗎？

Yes. So Mark, so first of all, you've absolutely nailed it in terms of thinking about how this flows, right? The way that we've been working on and thinking about it is you have what I'm going to call kind of a relatively low quality number in the first quarter, let's just call it like it is, right? The second quarter number is almost identical, but it's exceptionally high quality. That's kind of the way to think about that.

是的。那麼馬克，首先，從思考這個過程如何進行的角度來說，你已經完全搞清楚了，對嗎？我們一直在努力和思考的是，第一季的數據品質相對較低，我們就這麼說吧，對吧？第二季的數字幾乎相同，但品質卻異常高。這就是思考這個問題的方式。

Those two together, I think that run rate that we're at right now that we just reported, those two together is about where you are as you look at that first half. So you've nailed that second half, there are a few things that are happening in the second half.

這兩個加在一起，我認為我們現在所處的運行率，也就是我們剛剛報告的，這兩個加在一起大概就是你在看上半場時所處的位置。所以你已經確定了下半場，下半場會發生一些事情。

And what I like about it is it's not like we have to go do something. Most of that has already been done. It's how it flows through in the second half. So you've got the cost out has started in the fall of last year, like the timing of how that flows and when that hits. That starts to accelerate as you go past the wind-down of closure of assets and those basically, all the cost there goes away, right? That kind of finally that tails off.

我喜歡它的地方在於我們不需要去做某事。大部分工作已經完成。這就是它在下半場的運作方式。因此，您已經計算了從去年秋季開始的成本，包括成本流動的時間和影響的時間。隨著資產關閉逐漸結束，這一進程開始加速，基本上所有的成本都消失了，對嗎？那種最終會逐漸消失的感覺。

You've got the impact which is principally the Red River Mill. That still has some tail on it in the second half, but it accelerates as you move through the year, the benefits of that start to accelerate through the year.

您已經感受到了主要來自 Red River Mill 的影響。下半年仍會有一些尾聲，但隨著全年的推進，這種趨勢會加速，其好處也會在全年開始加速顯現。

Obviously, the elimination of the matrix organization that we tackled late last year, you had people that were all the way through the year. You still have people that are finally exiting the business now, that starts to fully realize itself as you get in the second half.

顯然，我們在去年年底開始著手消除矩陣組織，而這些人員全年都在工作。現在仍然有一些人最終退出了這個行業，但到了下半年，他們開始完全意識到這一點。

And then yes, on the price side, you start to realize a lot more of that as you know, those are contractually connected, right? So the timing of those things, when price hits the market when it gets published, if it gets published and then how it rolls through contracts, it's just mechanical. And so what you're seeing here is basically the mechanical realization of that price.

是的，在價格方面，你開始意識到更多，因為你知道，這些都是與合約相關的，對嗎？因此，這些事情發生的時機，價格何時進入市場、何時發布，如果發布的話，以及它如何透過合約進行，都只是機械的。所以您在這裡看到的基本上就是該價格的機械實現。

And so just to clarify on that last point, first in the US, is there more that would be expected to show up in the second half related to say the February increase and also --

所以，為了澄清最後一點，首先在美國，預計下半年會出現更多與 2 月份成長相關的情況嗎？--

Also if you look on slide 14, you'll see where that shows up.

另外，如果您查看第 14 張投影片，您就會看到它出現的位置。

Great. And then also, particularly since we're kind of newer to understanding how the European business works, there have been a number of significant increases that were reflected on containerboard, but at the same time, OCC has been going higher. So where things stand today, what type of tailwind should we expect in Europe from price changes recognizing things could change?

偉大的。而且，特別是因為我們對歐洲商業運作方式的了解還比較新，箱板紙的價格出現了一些顯著的增長，但同時，OCC 的價格也在走高。那麼，就目前的情況來看，我們應該預期歐洲的價格變動會帶來什麼樣的順風，並且認清情況可能會改變？

So I'm a little bipolar on this one, Mark, just because to exactly your point, we have seen the price increases. So to be clear, at the Investor Day, we talked about a price increase that was starting to go through the market since that time, there's been a second that has moved through the market.

馬克，我對這個問題有點矛盾，因為正如你所說，我們已經看到價格上漲。因此，需要明確的是，在投資者日，我們談到了從那時起開始在市場上出現的價格上漲，現在已經有第二次價格上漲在市場上出現了。

Neither one of those has been realized yet in the market. And so what I would say is, at a static level, that's definitely a positive tailwind in the second half of the year. However, I am not calling it out, and we're not building it in, and we're not because of the weakness in the marketplace.

目前，這兩個目標都還未在市場上實現。所以我想說的是，從靜態層面來看，這絕對是下半年的正向推手。然而，我並沒有大聲疾呼，我們也沒有將其融入其中，而且我們這樣做並不是因為市場疲軟。

And so if the market shows up, I'll get more confidence that those that the second one will come through. The first one, we think will make its way through, and that's in the numbers, the second one. There's a longer just for folks who aren't quite used to the European market, there is a longer lag time from the change in paper price to the change in box price in Europe and just how it flows through the market and because of the amount of contracts because of the small versus large customers and how the mechanics work relative to price indexes, there's just more flux in that.

因此，如果市場出現這種情況，我會更有信心，第二個市場將會成功。我們認為，第一個目標將會實現，第二個目標也會實現。對於那些不太熟悉歐洲市場的人來說，時間會更長，從歐洲紙張價格的變化到盒子價格的變化有更長的滯後時間，以及它在市場上的流通方式，由於小客戶和大客戶的合約數量，以及機制如何相對於價格指數運作，其中的波動更大。

And you've heard people have heard me say in the past, right, you over earn for a longer period of time and you under-earned for a longer period of time in the European market based on that price compression or expansion, we have been in a compression territory. We believe we're entering that expansion territory as we get into the second half of the year.

你也聽人說過，過去我說過，在歐洲市場上，基於價格壓縮或擴張，你會在較長時間內賺得過多，也會在較長時間內賺得過少，我們一直處於壓縮區域。我們相信，進入下半年，我們將進入擴張領域。

So there's some good news out there, Mark, but we've got to be really mindful that that's connected to demand. And so again, first price increase, I think, hold the second one, we'll see where it goes.

所以，馬克，有一些好消息，但我們必須真正注意，這與需求有關。所以，我認為，第一次漲價，第二次漲價保持不變，我們再看看會怎樣。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Anthony Pettinari, Citi.

花旗銀行的安東尼‧佩蒂納裡 (Anthony Pettinari)。

Good morning. Hey, just following up on Mark's question. You have a relatively steep earnings ramp from the first half to the second half. It's a little steeper in Europe. So it sounds like price improvement from the first hike is not baked into the second half improvement. I just want to make sure that I have that --

早安.嘿，我只是想回答馬克的問題。從上半年到下半年，你的獲利成長相對較快。歐洲的情況稍微陡峭一些。因此，聽起來第一次升息帶來的價格改善並沒有被納入下半年的價格改善。我只是想確保我有這個--

The first price increase is. So if you go back and you look at slide 17, that first price increase is in there. But the second is not.

第一次漲價是。因此，如果你回頭來看第 17 張投影片，你會發現第一次漲價就在那裡。但第二個不是。

Got it. And then can you talk a little bit more about the assumptions for what happens in the second half in Europe, either internally or externally that gives you confidence in that big sequential move from the first half to the second half. And Andy, I guess maybe it's a hard question to answer.

知道了。然後，您能否再多談一下對歐洲下半年情勢的假設，無論是內部還是外部因素，這些假設都讓您對上半年到下半年的重大連續走勢充滿信心。安迪，我想這可能是一個很難回答的問題。

But when you think about sort of degree of difficulty or maybe how much of your time is being spent driving these improvements in EMEA versus North America. Is there any kind of sense you can give us in terms of level of confidence in where your time is being spent.

但是，當您考慮一下難度程度，或者您在推動歐洲、中東和非洲地區與北美地區的這些改進上花費了多少時間時。您能否告訴我們，您對自己的時間花在何處有信心？

Yeah, sure, no problem at all. So I think if you go back to the Investor Day, we talked about a modest improvement in the back half of the year in the European economy. That's what we called out right now that look suspect.

是的，當然沒問題。所以我認為，如果你回顧投資者日，我們談到了今年下半年歐洲經濟的溫和改善。這就是我們現在所說的看起來可疑的東西。

But again, based on the current environment that we have, we think we can hit these numbers, right? And that means we now expect Europe to be a little bit softer than we expected when we talked to you on at the Investor Day.

但是，基於我們目前的環境，我們認為我們可以達到這些數字，對嗎？這意味著我們現在預計歐洲經濟將比我們在投資者日與您交談時預期的要疲軟一些。

So again, current environment, we think we can deliver at these levels. And the reason being is that we do believe that, that first price increase, that first price increase was really out of necessity versus what I would call strengthened market were just candid about it.

因此，在當前環境下，我們認為我們可以實現這些水平。原因在於，我們確實相信，第一次提價確實是出於必要，而不是我所說的強化市場，我們對此持坦誠態度。

And the second one was basically from a little bit of a modest improvement better than expected. I think that the people saw that second price increase might be able to hold to go through. But I'm cautious about that because of that second half, what I think is a little bit weaker second half than we had expected given what's going on in the trade environment.

第二個基本上是比預期略有改善。我認為人們看到第二次價格上漲可能能夠堅持下去。但我對此持謹慎態度，因為考慮到貿易環境的情況，我認為下半年的情況會比我們預期的要弱一些。

And so what's on slide 17 in terms of that buildup, if you look at it, it's the cost out that we're going after in the early days of that plus the commercial benefits that we believe will roll through in the second half of the year.

那麼，第 17 張投影片上關於這項累積的內容是什麼呢？如果你看一下，你會發現這是我們在初期追求的成本，加上我們認為將在下半年實現的商業利益。

Relative to my time, what I'm really focused on here, if you put it really simply, what I'm focused on right now, is building the team, which having Joy and Lance join us, my team, my senior team is full. We've got a great team at the senior team level and in the different businesses in North America and Europe.

相對於我的時間，我真正關注的是，如果你說得簡單一點，我現在關注的是建立團隊，喬伊和蘭斯加入我們，我的團隊，我的高級團隊已經滿了。我們在高層團隊以及北美和歐洲的不同業務領域擁有優秀的團隊。

The North American team now has been together since the fall of last year, meeting the newly constituted focused packaging business unit. And the EMEA team, DS Smith, run a DSMB commercially is a mix of folks who came from DS Smith and folks who came from IP, it's outstanding.

北美團隊自去年秋季以來一直在一起，與新成立的重點包裝業務部門會面。而 EMEA 團隊 DS Smith 則以商業方式運作 DSMB，團隊成員包括來自 DS Smith 的人員和來自 IP 的人員，非常出色。

It's an outstanding team. You had a chance to meet Paul and Stefano at the Investor Day, who really have their hands on the till in Europe. And so I've been focusing on a team, building the team and then 80/20 deployment.

這是一支出色的團隊。您有機會在投資者日見到 Paul 和 Stefano，他們確實在歐洲擁有豐富的經驗。因此我一直專注於團隊建設，然後進行 80/20 部署。

That is where I'm spending all of my time. So if you think about kind of how my time flows it flows around directing people, great teams deploying 80/20 as a point of impact. And so, I'm probably, if I think about just energy, I put a lot of energy into DS Smith in the first quarter.

我所有的時間都花在那裡。因此，如果你想想我的時間是如何流動的，它圍繞著指導人們，優秀的團隊部署 80/20 作為影響點。所以，如果我只考慮精力的話，我可能會在第一季將大量精力投入 DS Smith 身上。

As a lot of you know, I spent almost 10 weeks in Europe at the start of the year to get that off on the right foot. I think Tim and the team are in a great place over there regularly in Europe, focusing on the rollout of 80/20. We kicked it off actually like the week before we had the Investor Day.

你們很多人都知道，為了有一個好的開始，我在今年年初在歐洲待了將近 10 週。我認為提姆和他的團隊經常在歐洲進行很好的工作，專注於 80/20 的推廣。實際上，我們在投資者日前一周就啟動了這項活動。

We now have a full ramp of initial 80/20 launches through every region in Europe by the middle of the summer. So we'll be running full out by the middle of the summer there. So I'm paying attention to that.

目前，我們已經在夏季中旬在歐洲所有地區全面啟動了 80/20 初始發布。因此，到夏季中旬，我們將全力以赴。所以我很關注這一點。

And then in North America, we're kind of a generation ahead, so to speak, in North America. And so here, it is making sure that we keep on track to the schedules and the outlines of cost out and on the commercial side. And so I'm balancing my time between the two regions, but we've got our fully staffed teams.

然後在北美，可以說我們在北美領先了一代。因此，我們要確保我們能夠按照計劃、成本大綱和商業方面進行。因此，我正在兩個地區之間平衡我的時間，但我們擁有人員齊全的團隊。

I feel like we're in a great position. in North America. We have a really clear schedule of what to do when and the expected impact and in Europe, we have that from the synergy work that we did.

我感覺我們處於一個很好的位置。在北美。我們有一個非常明確的時間表，說明什麼時候做什麼以及預期會產生什麼影響，在歐洲，我們從所做的協同工作中獲得了這些。

But now that's being woven in with how we think about 80/20. And really importantly, one of the conversations that we've been having internally is that you can get into this mixed messaging of what's a synergy and what's an 80/20 improvement, I don't care right?

但現在這與我們對 80/20 的思考方式交織在一起。真正重要的是，我們內在一直在進行的對話之一是，你可以了解什麼是協同效應，什麼是 80/20 改進，我不在乎，對吧？

We're talking about improvement and better. And the last thing we're going to do is get caught into accounting and who owns a synergy, who owns an 80/20 impact. You guys have all seen that movie. It's a terrible movie. It's about impact. And so winning for our customers and getting the cost out of the business.

我們正在談論改進和更好。我們最不應該做的就是陷入會計的泥潭，誰擁有協同效應，誰擁有 80/20 的影響力。你們都看過那部電影。這是一部糟糕的電影。這關乎影響力。這樣，我們就能為客戶贏得利益，並降低業務成本。

Okay, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

好的，這非常有幫助。我把它翻過來。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

美國銀行的喬治‧斯塔福斯 (George Staphos)。

Hi everyone, good morning. Thank you for your details. Despite GDP today. But two questions. One is kind of a shorter-term question on DS Smith and then one is maybe more of an intermediate-term question on North America and what you can and can't control, Andy. So first on Europe and DS Smith.

大家好，早安。感謝您的詳細資訊。儘管今天的 GDP。但有兩個問題。一個是關於 DS Smith 的短期問題，另一個可能是關於北美的中期問題，以及你能控制什麼和不能控制什麼，安迪。首先談談歐洲和 DS Smith。

If I go back to slide 16, a we're looking at, I think, lower EBITDA sequentially from 1Q to 2Q, so 104 to 85 despite you being an extra month, I think you've sort of hit on a lot of the overriding factors.

如果我回到第 16 張投影片，我認為我們正在研究從第一季到第二季的 EBITDA 連續下降，因此儘管多了一個月，但從 104 到 85，我認為您已經觸及了許多最重要的因素。

But is there any one or two things you'd call out there in terms of that sequential downtick recognizing as you're answering Anthony and Mark's questions earlier, you're expecting a bigger step-up in pricing in the second half. But what's happening there in terms of that step down?

但是，就這種連續的下跌而言，您是否會指出一兩件事？正如您之前回答安東尼和馬克的問題時所說，您預計下半年價格會有更大的上漲。但就降職而言，那裡發生了什麼事？

So you've got, I think you might be looking at the bridge a little bit differently. So you have two months of a net first column, you have two months in the first column, and you only have one month in the second because you're looking at sequential.

所以，我想你可能會以不同的眼光看待這座橋。因此，第一列有兩個月的淨值，第一列有兩個月，而第二列只有一個月，因為您正在查看連續資料。

I got you. So the contribution to the legacy. Okay. Fair enough.

我接到你了。因此這是對遺產的貢獻。好的。很公平。

This would be the incremental.

這將是增量的。

Yeah. Sorry about that. Sorry for the confusion. We know you're walking through that in my is, no. That's just the sequential implications.

是的。很抱歉。抱歉造成混淆。我們知道你正在經歷這一切，不是嗎？這只是連續的含義。

Okay. Understood. We appreciate that color and sorry for the misinformation there. The intermediate question is on controlling what you can and what you can't. And so as you look at trying to close a gap in North America, you're focused on the smaller accounts, Bob's mushroom factory, but these accounts typically and we hear they like you, too, by the way.

好的。明白了。我們很欣賞這種顏色，並對其中的錯誤訊息表示歉意。中間的問題是控制你能控制什麼、不能控制什麼。因此，當您試圖縮小北美的差距時，您會專注於較小的客戶，例如鮑勃的蘑菇工廠，但這些客戶通常也喜歡您，順便說一句，我們聽說他們也喜歡您。

Are the price of accounts that initially when things start to slow down, we'll actually pull in the horns more quickly based on our industry research over time. You're trying to implement your commercial improvements, which includes without getting too forward-looking value over volume.

帳戶的價格是這樣的，當事情開始放緩時，我們實際上會根據我們長期以來的行業研究更快地收緊政策。您正在嘗試實施商業改進，其中包括不將價值置於數量之上。

Where would you say ultimately, the risks are on volume as the year progresses, given what's a weaker environment. My guess is you want to really focus more on the commercial and focus on the margin, which might mean you ratchet some of your footprint alignment more quickly that maybe put some of the volume expectation and closing the gap at risk.

考慮到較弱的經濟環境，您認為最終隨著時間的推移，風險會如何發展？我的猜測是，你真的想更專注於商業並專注於利潤，這可能意味著你會更快地調整你的一些足跡調整，這可能會使一些銷售預期和縮小差距面臨風險。

How would you have to think about that and how you're imagine what the priorities are? Thanks and good luck in the quarter.

您會如何考慮這個問題以及您如何想像優先事項是什麼？謝謝，祝本季好運。

There's a lot in that question, so let me kind of parse through it. The first one, I want to clarify something upfront, which is we are not disproportionately deployed to the smaller customer, to be 100% clear, right? We're focused on what we call 80 customers.

這個問題包含很多內容，讓我來分析一下。首先，我想先澄清一點，那就是我們並沒有不成比例地向較小的客戶部署，這樣可以 100% 明確，對嗎？我們專注於所謂的 80 位客戶。

So large customers either nationally, regionally or locally. That's that kind of big middle that I've talked about in the past, which really equates to about 70% of the marketplace is in that segment of what we're interested in.

因此，無論是全國性的、地區的或是地方性的大客戶。這就是我過去談到的那種中間大市場，實際上相當於大約 70% 的市場都屬於我們感興趣的部分。

The wins that we're getting are around what I'll call those local bigger customers where we, frankly, had really fallen down, right? We had really fallen down on service levels and on coverage, and we've been making the investments back there.

我們所取得的勝利來自於那些我稱之為本地大客戶的客戶，坦白說，我們在這方面確實失敗了，對嗎？我們的服務水準和覆蓋範圍確實下降了，我們一直在那裡進行投資。

And so that's that positive trend. The focus on the national accounts and large regional accounts. I think we've been relatively good there. The big change there is our service levels are just so much better because of the investment that we've made in assets and the people and so I feel good commercially, we're on the right track.

這就是正面的趨勢。重點關注全國性帳戶和大型區域帳戶。我認為我們在那裡表現相對較好。最大的變化是，由於我們在資產和人員方面的投資，我們的服務水準有了很大的提高，因此從商業角度來說，我感覺很好，我們正走在正確的軌道上。

And if you look at that gap to market that we've had consistently and now you've seen that close, we know by customer where that is likely to land, and we don't see any major customer defections between now and we just don't see it in the pipeline today.

如果你看看我們一直以來與市場的差距，現在你已經看到差距越來越小，我們知道客戶可能會在哪裡出現這種差距，而且我們現在沒有看到任何重大的客戶流失，我們只是在今天的管道中沒有看到這種情況。

And so our confidence level on closing that gap to market in the back half is important, right? So the question is I don't, we just don't know where the market is going to be given the chaos that's been out there.

因此，我們對縮小下半年市場差距的信心很重要，對嗎？所以問題是，我不知道，鑑於目前存在的混亂，我們只是不知道市場將會走向何方。

But our real focus commercially is let's close that gap to market because we believe in the long-term trends in the packaging business, like we laid out at the Analyst Day, we believe that that's going to track the overall economy over long periods of time.

但我們真正的商業重點是縮小與市場的差距，因為我們相信包裝業務的長期趨勢，就像我們在分析師日上闡述的那樣，我們相信這將在長期內追蹤整體經濟。

And we feel good about the two markets specifically that we're in, making sure that I address the final part of the question, if we end up with weakness in pockets, we can accelerate, we can pull forward some of those actions based on capacity utilization. But again, we really got to stick to that strategy.

我們對我們所處的兩個市場感到滿意，確保我回答了問題的最後一部分，如果我們最終在某些方面出現疲軟，我們可以加速，我們可以根據產能利用率提前採取一些行動。但再次強調，我們必須堅持這項策略。

So I feel good about we are controlling what we can control. We're controlling our own destiny. We will accelerate and pivot based on what the market gives us. with an eye towards our long-term strategy because I really believe that we are on to the right strategy that focus on we have to be the advantaged cost player.

所以我很高興我們能夠控制我們能夠控制的事情。我們掌握著自己的命運。我們將根據市場情況加速並調整。著眼於我們的長期策略，因為我確實相信我們正在採取正確的策略，專注於成為具有優勢的成本參與者。

We know that, and we have the right and the scale to be there. Customer excellence, thank goodness, we have made those investments, and we're starting to see the turn on that. We obviously have got to continue to get better, but we feel really good about where we are thus far in our actions.

我們知道這一點，而且我們有權利、有規模去達到這一點。感謝上帝，為了客戶卓越，我們已經做出了這些投資，並且開始看到成效。我們顯然必須繼續進步，但我們對迄今為止的行動感到非常滿意。

Specific to the questions of value over volume. I think where we are now, we were at the best with value over volume two years ago, right? We were completely out of that. And the painful transition that we've made over the last two years has been getting to be competitive in the market at the appropriate levels, not at some crazy premium just to be clear, right?

具體來說，就是價值重於數量的問題。我認為我們現在的狀況是兩年前價值超過銷量的最佳狀況，對嗎？我們完全不知道這一點。我們在過去兩年中經歷的痛苦轉變是為了在適當的水平上獲得市場競爭力，而不是在某些瘋狂的溢價上，這要明確一點，對嗎？

We know where the market is. We know where we have to be and we're going to win. We may get some premium because of our service, our quality and innovation, but we know where we have to compete, and that's going to be our focus.

我們知道市場在哪裡。我們知道我們必須在哪裡並且我們將會勝利。我們可能會因為我們的服務、品質和創新而獲得一些溢價，但我們知道我們必須在哪裡競爭，這將是我們的重點。

So I don't see us being crazy about choices around value over volume. I think we're in the right place today. I think we're planning to gain the right way in North America. I know we're doing that in Europe. They're very, very good.

因此，我認為我們不會因為價值而非數量而瘋狂做出選擇。我認為我們今天處於正確的位置。我認為我們正計劃在北美取得正確的進展。我知道我們在歐洲正在這樣做。他們非常非常優秀。

The team in Europe is very good with the customer in terms of the intimacy with the customer, understanding of the marketplace, they're working awfully hard now to realize the price increase that has gone through and to be very sensitive to that overall marketplace. But overall, I think we found the right spot.

歐洲團隊與客戶的關係非常好，他們與客戶關係親密，對市場有深入的了解，他們現在非常努力地了解已經經歷的價格上漲，並對整個市場保持高度敏感。但總的來說，我認為我們找到了正確的位置。

Thank you, Andy.

謝謝你，安迪。

I'll now turn the call over to Andrew Silvernail for closing comments.

現在我將把電話轉給安德魯·西爾弗內爾 (Andrew Silvernail) 來做最後發言。

So I want to thank everybody for joining us here for the quarterly call. We appreciate the opportunity to update you on our strategy. Hopefully, what you're seeing now is predictability and repeatability of the message and because of the actions that we're taking to control our own destiny. That's what it's all about.

所以我要感謝大家參加我們的季度電話會議。我們很高興有機會向您通報我們的策略。希望您現在看到的是資訊的可預測性和可重複性，以及我們為控制自己的命運所採取的行動。這就是全部內容。

And most importantly, that happens because of the 65,000 people across International Paper. And we're just absolutely thrilled to have the team from DS Smith, our new colleagues on board. I had the opportunity to spend an awful lot of time with them in the first quarter of this year and it's just a great group.

最重要的是，這要歸功於國際紙業公司 65,000 名員工。我們非常高興 DS Smith 團隊和我們的新同事加入我們。今年第一季我有幸與他們共度了一段非常愉快的時光，他們真是個很棒的團隊。

They're outstanding. We have an incredibly bright future, but we've got to stick to the strategy and we've got to execute. So with that, thank you very much to my team. Thank you very much to the investment community for the attention and the time you give us and it's our job now to go out and execute.

他們非常出色。我們擁有無比光明的未來，但我們必須堅持策略，必須執行。因此，非常感謝我的團隊。非常感謝投資界給予我們的關注和時間，現在我們的工作就是出去執行。

And once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Paper's first quarter 2025 earnings call. And you may now disconnect.

再次感謝您參加國際紙業 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。現在您可以斷開連線了。