使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Paper's fourth quarter 2026 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)
早上好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加國際紙業2026年第四季財報電話會議。(操作說明)
It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mandi Gilliland, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.
現在我很高興將電話轉交給投資者關係高級總監曼迪·吉利蘭。女士,請您發言。
Mandi Gilliland - Senior Director, Investor Relations
Mandi Gilliland - Senior Director, Investor Relations
Good morning and good afternoon, and thank you for joining International Paper's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Tim Nicholls, Executive Vice President and President of DS Smith.
早安,下午好,感謝各位參加國際紙業2025年第四季財報電話會議。今天早上的演講嘉賓有:DS Smith 董事長兼首席執行官 Andy Silvernail;高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Lance Loeffler;以及執行副總裁兼總裁 Tim Nicholls。
There is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during the call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
我們的簡報開頭包含一些重要訊息,其中包括某些法律免責聲明。例如,在電話會議期間,我們將發表一些存在風險和不確定性的前瞻性聲明。這些以及其他可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性聲明有重大差異的因素,可以在我們的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中找到。
We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to US GAAP financial measures is available on our website. Our website also contains copies of the fourth quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides.
我們也將提供一些非美國通用會計準則的財務資訊。這些數據與美國通用會計準則財務指標的核對錶可在我們的網站上查閱。我們的網站上還包含第四季度收益新聞稿和今天簡報的副本。
Beginning on slide 3. Before we jump into the presentation, I want to provide clarity on what will be discussed on the call today. We will begin by walking through the separation announcement for the EMEA packaging business. Then we will discuss our 2025 full year and fourth quarter results, followed by our outlook for Packaging Solutions North America and Packaging Solutions EMEA. We will close out the call with Q&A.
從第3張投影片開始。在正式開始簡報之前,我想先先明確一下今天電話會議將討論哪些內容。我們將首先回顧 EMEA 包裝業務的分拆公告。接下來,我們將討論 2025 年全年及第四季業績,以及北美包裝解決方案和歐洲、中東及非洲包裝解決方案的展望。我們將以問答環節結束本次通話。
So now, let me turn the call over to Andy Silvernail, who will start on slide 4.
現在,讓我把電話交給安迪·西爾弗內爾,他將從第 4 張幻燈片開始。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thanks, Mandi. Good morning, and good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for joining us to discuss the next steps in our transformation journey. Today, I'm excited to announce our plan to create two publicly traded scaled regional packaging solution leaders in North America and EMEA. I recognize that this action, understandably, is a surprise to most of you. But during this call, I'll walk you through why this is the right step to accelerate value creation for both businesses.
謝謝你,曼迪。各位早安,各位下午好,感謝各位參加本次會議,共同探討我們轉型之旅的下一步計劃。今天,我很高興地宣布我們的計劃,在北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區打造兩家上市的、規模化的區域包裝解決方案領導者。我知道,這一舉動對你們大多數人來說,無疑是個意外。但在本通電話中,我將向您詳細解釋為什麼這是加速兩家企業價值創造的正確步驟。
My objective today is to answer a few critical questions, what, why and why now? We look forward to helping you understand how this swift, decisive action is a continuation of our 80/20 focused strategy and accelerate toward our ambitions and supports our ultimate objective, which, as always, is to maximize long-term value for our shareholders. But first, turning to slide 5. I want to anchor you in our core strategy and how we operationalize it to our 80/20 performance system.
我今天的目標是回答幾個關鍵問題:是什麼、為什麼、為什麼現在?我們期待幫助您了解這項迅速果斷的行動如何延續了我們以 80/20 為重點的策略,加速實現我們的雄心壯志,並支持我們的最終目標,即一如既往地為股東創造最大的長期價值。但首先,請先看第 5 張投影片。我想向你們介紹我們的核心策略,以及我們如何將其融入我們的 80/20 績效體系中。
While our portfolio is changing, the core strategic principles and the operating model are not. 80/20 is the driver for our transformation. The lens we use to determine where to play and how to win and it guides us on how we operate each day. The four elements of 80/20 are Simplify, Segment, Resource and Grow and they ensure that resources are focused on the highest value areas across geographies, customers and products. The 80/20 methodology is also how we drive sustainable value creation through our virtuous cycle as we build an advantaged cost position and a high relative supply position, all delivered for world-class customer experience. I'm now on slide 6.
儘管我們的投資組合在變化,但核心策略原則和營運模式保持不變。 80/20 法則是我們轉型發展的驅動力。我們用這副眼睛來決定在哪裡比賽以及如何取勝,它指導著我們每天的行動。80/20 法則的四個要素是簡化、細分、資源配置和成長,它們確保資源集中在各個地區、客戶和產品中最有價值的領域。80/20 方法也是我們透過良性循環推動永續價值創造的方式,我們建立了有利的成本地位和較高的相對供應地位,所有這些都是為了提供世界一流的客戶體驗。我現在看到第6張投影片了。
The acquisition of DS Smith strengthened our regional footprint and positions both businesses in North America and EMEA to advance our virtuous cycle. Through the application of 80/20, we have made significant progress on building an enhanced cost position, executing $710 million of cost-out actions through 2025 on a full run rate basis, which includes synergy benefits that will be realized in 2026 and 2027. This was achieved through actions such as optimizing our footprint in North America, streamlining and reducing structural organizational layers in EMEA and exiting lower-margin segments.
收購 DS Smith 加強了我們在區域內的業務佈局,並使北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的業務能夠推進我們的良性循環。透過應用 80/20 原則,我們在建立更優的成本地位方面取得了重大進展,到 2025 年將按全面運行率執行 7.1 億美元的成本削減措施,其中包括將在 2026 年和 2027 年實現的協同效應效益。這是透過優化我們在北美的業務佈局、精簡和減少歐洲、中東和非洲地區的組織結構層級以及退出低利潤率業務等措施來實現的。
The combination also advanced our competitive positioning. Our voice of the customer surveys show that we have achieved the highest customer satisfaction among direct competitors in North America and leading scores and customer experience relative to the other top players in EMEA. The improved positioning and bolstered operational capabilities will provide ongoing benefits for each independent region going forward. Moving to slide 7.
這一組合也提升了我們的競爭地位。我們的客戶調查顯示,我們在北美直接競爭對手中獲得了最高的客戶滿意度,並且在 EMEA 地區的其他頂級企業中,我們的得分和客戶體驗也處於領先地位。更優的定位和更強的作戰能力將為每個獨立區域帶來持續的利益。切換到第7張投影片。
So why separate and why now? The combination of IP and DS Smith enabled important steps forward in terms of cost and relative supply positions and enable superior customer experience as demonstrated by a high and increasing in-region Net Promoter Scores. Since the combination, our teams have made tremendous progress rapidly integrating the businesses within each region and implementing our 80/20 road map.
那麼,為什麼要分開呢?又為什麼是現在?IP 和 DS Smith 的合併使公司在成本和相對供應地位方面取得了重要進展,並實現了卓越的客戶體驗,這體現在不斷提高的區域淨推薦值上。自合併以來,我們的團隊在快速整合各區域業務和實施我們的 80/20 路線圖方面取得了巨大進展。
I'm proud of how our teams have embraced the challenge. And because of these efforts, it has become clear that each business is at a positive inflection point. By acting now, we can more fully enable the full potential of each business. Taking this action will allow both businesses to accelerate progress toward maximizing long-term profitable growth through greater speed, agility and differentiation as well as enhanced focus on their different regions and targeted investment approaches.
我為我們團隊迎接挑戰的方式感到自豪。正因為有了這些努力,很明顯,每個企業都處於一個正面的轉捩點。現在採取行動,我們可以更充分地發揮每個企業的全部潛力。採取這項行動將使兩家企業能夠透過提高速度、靈活性和差異化,以及更專注於各自的不同地區和有針對性的投資方法,加快長期獲利成長最大化的步伐。
Creating and inventing companies will further enable the businesses to win in distinctive competitive markets through focused leadership, tailored commercial strategies, independent balance sheets and flexible capital allocation aligned to attractive but different in-region opportunities. The separation will also give each business the ability to customize their messaging for regional customers without diluting the message for global audience which is a very small portion of the customer opportunity. I'm now on slide 8.
創建和創新公司將使企業能夠透過專注的領導、量身定制的商業策略、獨立的資產負債表和靈活的資本配置,在具有吸引力但又各具特色的區域內機會中贏得獨特的競爭市場。此次拆分還將使每個業務部門能夠針對區域客戶量身定制訊息,而不會稀釋面向全球受眾的訊息,而全球受眾只佔客戶機會的一小部分。我現在看到第8張投影片了。
Overall, we are playing in the two most attractive global profit pools with significant and increasing demand. After the combination of IP and DS Smith, the regional integration of the legacy positions of both businesses, each of the regional businesses is better equipped to compete and win in their respective geographies. However, there are key structural differences in the competitive and commercial landscape that will require tailored commercial and capital allocation strategies going forward.
整體而言,我們正參與到全球最具吸引力的兩個利潤池中,這兩個利潤池的需求龐大且不斷成長。IP 和 DS Smith 合併後,兩家公司原有業務的區域整合得以實現,各區域業務都更有能力在各自的區域內競爭並取得成功。然而,競爭和商業格局存在一些關鍵的結構性差異,這將需要製定量身定制的商業和資本配置策略。
North America is more integrated and resilient in terms of supply positions and buyers has a high degree of supply integration and steady demand growth. EMEA has more localized dynamics at the country level and relatively higher demand growth. Customers in EMEA value different products and supplier traits as well with greater emphasis on sustainability. Consequently, it's important that each business unit tailors strategy to best meet the distinct customer expectations in their markets. Creating two separate businesses will enable each region to accelerate its path to long-term profitable growth. I'm now on slide 9.
北美在供應方面更加一體化和更具韌性,買家擁有高度的供應整合程度和穩定的需求成長。歐洲、中東和非洲地區(EMEA)各國之間的市場動態更加本土化,需求成長也相對較高。歐洲、中東和非洲地區的客戶對產品和供應商的特性有不同的重視程度,並且更重視永續性。因此,每個業務部門都必須根據其所在市場的不同客戶期望,量身定制策略,以達到最佳效果。創建兩個獨立的企業將使每個地區都能加快長期獲利成長的步伐。我現在看到第9張投影片了。
I want to address what is changing and what is not. As we discussed, our 80/20 methodology starts with Simplify, which we have been working towards over the past year, deemphasizing or exiting select businesses, markets and functions and then redirecting our resources to a sharper focus and higher value.
我想談談哪些方面正在改變,哪些方面沒有改變。正如我們所討論的那樣,我們的 80/20 方法論始於簡化,這是我們在過去一年中一直努力的方向,我們減少了對某些業務、市場和職能的重視或退出,然後將我們的資源重新分配到更明確的重點和更高的價值上。
The action we are discussing today is the next step in the 80/20 performance system, segmenting the business to further optimize resource allocation and enable long-term profitable growth. While these actions separates the businesses from one entity into two discrete, highly focused companies, both businesses will continue to emphasize the powerful operating discipline of 80/20 and our three strategic pillars. Our 80/20 approach with a clear focus on cost optimization and operating efficiency, strategy execution and customer centricity will remain core to both businesses.
我們今天討論的行動是 80/20 績效體系的下一步,即對業務進行細分,以進一步優化資源配置並實現長期獲利成長。雖然這些舉措將企業從一個實體拆分為兩個獨立的、高度專注的公司,但這兩個企業都將繼續強調 80/20 法則的強大營運原則和我們的三大策略支柱。我們堅持 80/20 原則,明確關注成本優化和營運效率、策略執行和以客戶為中心,這將繼續是兩家公司的核心。
The independent scaled businesses will benefit from true alignment to the characteristics of their district customers and regions. Local leadership and optimized capital allocation strategies without regional trade-offs. Most importantly, both companies will continue to be customer-driven organizations focused on delivering exceptional customer service with attention to detail around on-time delivery, quality and engagement. Turning to slide 10. Let me provide an overview of what the post-separation International Paper will look like.
獨立營運的規模化企業將受益於真正與所在地區客戶和區域的特徵保持一致。在地化領導和優化的資本配置策略,無需在區域間做出取捨。最重要的是,兩家公司將繼續秉持客戶至上的原則,致力於提供卓越的客戶服務,並專注於按時交付、品質和客戶互動等細節。翻到第10張投影片。讓我概述一下分拆後的國際紙業公司會是什麼樣子。
IP will be the leading scaled sustainable packaging solutions provider in North America, relentlessly focused on customers with an advantaged cost position and leading innovation capabilities. The business will be comprised of the current packaging solutions in North America, including both legacy IP and DS Smith assets.
IP 將成為北美領先的規模化永續包裝解決方案供應商,始終專注於具有成本優勢和領先創新能力的客戶。該業務將包括北美現有的包裝解決方案,包括傳統智慧財產權和 DS Smith 的資產。
As you can see from the pro forma results on the slide, the business that will become stand-alone IP had full year 2025 net sales of more than $15 billion and approximately $2.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA that is poised to accelerate rapidly over the next 24 months. The sharper regional focus will enable IP to further accelerate value creation for our shareholders.
從幻燈片上的模擬結果可以看出,即將成為獨立智慧財產權業務的公司在 2025 年全年淨銷售額超過 150 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 約為 23 億美元,並預計在未來 24 個月內迅速成長。更精準的區域定位將使智慧財產權部門能夠進一步加速為股東創造價值。
We have already made significant progress executing our transformation strategy and expect the benefits to flow through adjusted EBITDA over the coming year. We'll provide more detail about that in the earnings portion of the presentation. Additionally, we expect that the acceleration of our transformation to result in expanded margins, growing free cash flow, which will support disciplined investments in organic and inorganic growth opportunities.
我們在執行轉型策略方面已經取得了顯著進展,預計未來一年調整後的 EBITDA 將體現出相應的效益。我們將在收益報告部分提供更多細節。此外,我們預計加速轉型將帶來利潤率的提高和自由現金流的成長,這將支持對有機和無機成長機會的審慎投資。
We have a robust plan in place to continue delivering our strategic ambitions, which you can see on slide 11. This is a continuation of our 80/20 approach in our virtuous cycle. We will continue to assess our mill and plant footprint and transform day-to-day operations, deliver differentiated customer service and develop and deploy local commercial strategies. These actions will enable strategic reinvestment in the business to accelerate organic growth, drive productivity and support disciplined bolt-on acquisitions. This will all be supported by a strong investment-grade balance sheet and a capital structure that supports an attractive dividend. Our ultimate goal will continue to be to provide customers with the best possible solutions and creating value for our shareholders as a preeminent packaging company in North America.
我們已經制定了強有力的計劃,以繼續實現我們的策略目標,您可以在第 11 頁幻燈片中看到。這是我們良性循環中 80/20 方法的延續。我們將繼續評估我們的工廠和生產設施佈局,轉變日常營運模式,提供差異化的客戶服務,並制定和實施本地化的商業策略。這些舉措將使企業能夠進行策略性再投資,以加速內生成長,提高生產力,並支持有條不紊的補充收購。這一切都將得到穩健的投資等級資產負債表和能夠支撐可觀股息的資本結構的支撐。作為北美首屈一指的包裝公司,我們的最終目標仍然是為客戶提供最佳解決方案,並為股東創造價值。
I'll now turn the call over to Tim to talk about the post separation of EMEA Packaging business.
現在我將把電話交給 Tim,讓他談談 EMEA 包裝業務分拆後的情況。
Timothy Nicholls - Executive Vice President, President DS Smith
Timothy Nicholls - Executive Vice President, President DS Smith
Thanks, Andy. I'm on slide 12. I'm excited to talk to you about the post-separation EMEA Packaging business, which will continue to be a leading provider of innovative, sustainable packaging solutions across Europe.
謝謝你,安迪。我看到第12張投影片了。我很高興能與您探討分拆後的 EMEA 包裝業務,該業務將繼續成為歐洲領先的創新、永續包裝解決方案提供者。
The new independent company will be defined by its strong customer relationships, high-performance operations and best-in-class innovative solutions that help our customers meet their sustainability goals. The business will be comprised of IP's current Packaging Solutions EMEA business, including the combination of legacy DS Smith and IP assets. As you can see from the pro forma results on this slide, the business will become the stand-alone EMEA business at full year 2025 net sales of approximately $8.5 billion and approximately $800 million of adjusted EBITDA.
這家新的獨立公司將以其強大的客戶關係、高效的營運和一流的創新解決方案為特徵,幫助我們的客戶實現其永續發展目標。該業務將由 IP 目前的 EMEA 包裝解決方案業務組成,包括原 DS Smith 和 IP 的資產合併。從這張投影片上的模擬結果可以看出,到 2025 年全年,該業務將成為獨立的 EMEA 業務,淨銷售額約為 85 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 約為 8 億美元。
Over the past year, we have created and begun to implement an 80/20 road map based on the proven 80/20 performance system. We are still at an early stage of the transformation to optimize our footprint, structurally reduce cost and extend our innovation leadership, but we expect to begin seeing the benefits of these actions in 2026.
過去一年,我們根據成熟的 80/20 績效體系,制定並開始實施 80/20 路線圖。我們仍處於轉型初期,旨在優化我們的佈局,從結構上降低成本,並擴大我們的創新領先地位,但我們預計將在 2026 年開始看到這些措施的好處。
The separation will enable us to accelerate this progress, enhancing the new company's ability to make both organic and inorganic investments into our business to further improve our cost position and enhance customer experience and relative supply position. You can see the priorities for the post-separation EMEA Packaging business on slide 13.
此次分拆將使我們能夠加快這一進程,增強新公司對我們業務進行有機和非有機投資的能力,從而進一步改善我們的成本狀況,提升客戶體驗和相對供應地位。您可以在第 13 頁看到分拆後 EMEA 包裝業務的優先事項。
A key area of focus is to continue using our 80/20 approach to complete the integration of legacy acquisitions made by DS Smith prior to the combination with IP, transforming our footprint and aligning resources to drive value. We will remain laser focused on our customer-centric mindset, rigorously aligning our resources and investments with the needs of our key customers.
重點領域是繼續採用我們的 80/20 方法,完成 DS Smith 在與 IP 合併之前所收購的遺留企業的整合,轉變我們的業務佈局,並調整資源以創造價值。我們將持續秉持以客戶為中心的理念,嚴格把控資源和投資,以滿足主要客戶的需求。
As we execute our strategy and 80/20 road map, we'll be focused on delivering organic growth and structural cost reductions in order to expand margins and drive strong cash flow and returns. We expect the post-separation EMEA Packaging business to have a strong investment-grade balance sheet and a dividend policy that is supported by strong operational profit and high return organic and inorganic investments.
在執行我們的策略和 80/20 路線圖的過程中,我們將專注於實現內生成長和結構性成本削減,以擴大利潤率並推動強勁的現金流和回報。我們預計分拆後的 EMEA 包裝業務將擁有強勁的投資等級資產負債表,以及由強勁的營運利潤和高回報的有機和非有機投資所支撐的股息政策。
Our goal is to meet our customers' needs with the best possible packaging solutions and to create value for our shareholders by delivering operating performance at the top of our peer group. Our transformation will continue in 2026, and we believe that by the time the separation is complete, we will be making significant progress against our financial targets and toward more definitive market leadership and sustainable packaging solutions.
我們的目標是透過提供最佳的包裝解決方案來滿足客戶的需求,並透過在同業中取得領先的營運績效來為股東創造價值。我們的轉型將在 2026 年繼續進行,我們相信,到分拆完成時,我們將在實現財務目標方面取得重大進展,並在市場領導地位和永續包裝解決方案方面取得更明確的成就。
I'll now turn the call over to Lance, who will go over the details of the transaction.
現在我將把電話轉給蘭斯,他將詳細介紹交易情況。
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thanks, Tim. Moving to slide 14, let me walk you through some of the specifics of the separation.
謝謝你,提姆。接下來請看第 14 張投影片,讓我帶您了解分離過程中的一些具體細節。
First, we expect the transaction to be structured as a spin-off of the EMEA packaging business to shareholders with International Paper retaining a meaningful ownership stake in the new company. Second, whether the transaction will be tax-free to US shareholders will depend on the ultimate terms of the transaction, the percentage of ownership retained and other factors. Third, we expect the separation to be completed within the next 12 to 15 months subject to satisfaction of certain customary conditions and regulatory approvals, with plans for the company to be listed on both the London and New York Stock Exchanges.
首先,我們預期此交易將以將 EMEA 包裝業務分拆給股東的形式進行,而國際紙業將在新公司中保留相當可觀的股權。其次,該交易對美國股東是否免稅,將取決於交易的最終條款、保留的股權比例以及其他因素。第三,我們預計分拆將在未來 12 至 15 個月內完成,但需滿足某些慣例條件並獲得監管部門的批准,公司計劃在倫敦證券交易所和紐約證券交易所上市。
As part of the management plan, Andy, Tom Hammock and I will continue in our respective roles in International Paper. Following the separation, Tim will serve as the CEO of the publicly traded EMEA Packaging business. As many of you know, Tim previously served as CFO of International Paper and has been leading the EMEA Packaging business during the past year, overseeing EMEA's 80/20 implementation and strategic transformation. The International Paper Board has confidence that he is the right person to continue leading EMEA's transformation.
作為管理計畫的一部分,安迪、湯姆·哈默克和我將繼續在國際紙業公司擔任各自的職位。分拆完成後,蒂姆將擔任上市的 EMEA 包裝業務的執行長。正如你們許多人所知,蒂姆之前曾擔任國際紙業的首席財務官,並在過去一年中領導了歐洲、中東和非洲地區的包裝業務,監督了歐洲、中東和非洲地區的 80/20 實施和戰略轉型。國際紙業委員會相信他是繼續領導歐洲、中東和非洲地區轉型發展的合適人選。
Also, David Robbie is expected to be appointed as Chairman of the Board. David has a wealth of experience having served on the former DS Smith Board as Senior Independent Director until joining the International Paper board in 2025.
此外,預計大衛·羅比將被任命為董事會主席。David 擁有豐富的經驗,曾擔任 DS Smith 董事會高級獨立董事,直到 2025 年加入 International Paper 董事會。
In order to position the EMEA packaging business for success following the separation, we plan to invest approximately $400 million in EMEA throughout the course of 2026 and to fund the ongoing transformation of the business and 80/20 implementation. As mentioned earlier, we intend to create strong investment-grade balance sheets for both businesses and we'll continue to provide updates and additional information on our progress as the details of the separation materialize.
為了使 EMEA 包裝業務在分拆後取得成功,我們計劃在 2026 年全年向 EMEA 投資約 4 億美元,為業務的持續轉型和 80/20 實施提供資金。如前所述,我們計劃為兩家公司打造穩健的投資等級資產負債表,隨著分拆細節的逐步明朗,我們將繼續提供有關我們進展的更新和更多資訊。
I'll now turn the call over to Andy to discuss our full year results and fourth quarter performance.
現在我將把電話交給安迪,讓他來討論我們的全年業績和第四季表現。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Shifting now to our full year and quarterly earnings update on page 15. In North America, we made significant progress on implementing our 80/20 plan and executing our strategy this year, achieving approximately 37% year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025. And we expect our volume growth to outpace the underlying market by 3 to 4 percentage points in the fourth quarter which is well ahead of where we thought we'd be earlier last year.
現在請翻到第 15 頁查看我們的全年和季度收益更新。今年,我們在北美實施 80/20 計畫和執行策略方面取得了重大進展,預計到 2025 年,調整後 EBITDA 將年增約 37%。我們預計第四季銷售成長將比市場整體成長高出 3 至 4 個百分點,這遠高於我們去年年初的預期。
Throughout the year, we continue to advance our cost improvement strategy, delivering approximately $510 million of run rate cost benefits. The ongoing transformation resulted in approximately $110 million related to footprint optimization in 2025, and we expect to have similar amounts in 2026. We'll share more detail on these dynamics for North America in a moment.
今年,我們持續推進成本改善策略,實現了約 5.1 億美元的年度成本效益。持續的轉型預計將在 2025 年帶來約 1.1 億美元的與佔地面積優化相關的收益,我們預計 2026 年也將有類似的收益。稍後我們將詳細介紹北美地區的這些動態。
In EMEA, we're moving decisively on transformation of the packaging business. We have actioned 20 site closures impacting approximately 1,400 roles with another 7 sites and 700 roles in work council discussions. We have a clear road map for applying our commercial and structural cost levers and expect to see the benefits of our cost and commercial actions accelerate through 2026. Turning to our enterprise results for full year 2025, which reflect the steadfast commitment of the entire IP team to execute our transformation plan, continue to deliver best-in-class customer experience and create value for shareholders.
在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,我們正在果斷推動包裝業務的轉型。我們已經關閉了 20 個工廠,影響了大約 1400 個工作崗位;另有 7 個工廠和 700 個工作崗位正在工會委員會討論中。我們有明確的路線圖來運用我們的商業和結構性成本槓桿,並期望到 2026 年,我們的成本和商業行動的效益能夠加速顯現。展望 2025 年全年企業業績,這反映了整個 IP 團隊堅定不移地執行我們的轉型計劃,繼續提供一流的客戶體驗,並為股東創造價值。
We continue to drive strong growth from integration in 80/20 in a year of significant transformation. We expanded adjusted EBITDA margin by 230 basis points. Our adjusted EBIT and EPS were impacted by $958 million of accelerated depreciation by our footprint optimization and higher levels of depreciation and amortization related to the DS Smith acquisition. As anticipated, our investment in the transformation resulted in negative free cash flow of $159 million. As a reminder, I would note that the enterprise earnings numbers have been restated to exclude GCF, and we are pleased that we closed the transaction at the end of last week.
在經歷了重大變革的一年後,我們繼續透過 80/20 整合實現強勁成長。我們將調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率提高了 230 個基點。由於我們優化業務佈局導致加速折舊 9.58 億美元,以及與收購 DS Smith 相關的更高水準的折舊和攤銷,我們的調整後 EBIT 和 EPS 受到影響。正如預期的那樣,我們對轉型的投資導致了 1.59 億美元的負自由現金流。再次提醒大家,企業獲利數據已重新調整,剔除了 GCF,我們很高興在上週末完成了這筆交易。
Now I'll turn it over to Lance to take you through the drivers of North America performance, including what drove the year-over-year improvements and what to expect in 2026.
現在我將把麥克風交給蘭斯,讓他帶大家了解北美市場表現的驅動因素,包括推動逐年改進的因素以及 2026 年的預期。
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Thanks, Andy. I'm on slide 17. I'd like to begin by reiterating the progress and momentum we've built in North America. Our teams delivered meaningful improvement across the business in a challenging environment, and the results reinforce our strategy is working. Notably, we have gained commercial momentum through focused service and reliability efforts, increasing on-time delivery percentage to the upper 90s, which has allowed us to win the trust of both new and existing customers.
謝謝你,安迪。我看到第17張投影片了。首先,我想重申我們在北美取得的進展和發展勢頭。在充滿挑戰的環境下,我們的團隊在業務各方面都取得了顯著的進步,結果也印證了我們的策略是有效的。值得一提的是,我們透過專注於服務和可靠性,獲得了商業發展動力,準時交付率提高到 90% 以上,這使我們能夠贏得新舊客戶的信任。
Also, our investments in our commercial team, adding new sales reps and upskilling the existing team has supported customer excellence across our national and local accounts, evidenced by our above-market volume growth in the second half of 2025 as well as strong price realization. We continue to optimize our box footprint while rolling out our Lighthouse model to shift decision-making and strategy closer to our customers. We've now installed this in 85% of our box plant system.
此外,我們對商業團隊的投資,包括增加新的銷售代表和提升現有團隊的技能,都為我們在全國和地方客戶中提供的卓越服務提供了支持,這體現在我們 2025 年下半年高於市場平均水平的銷量增長以及強勁的價格實現上。我們不斷優化機殼佈局,同時推出燈塔模式,將決策和策略更貼近客戶。目前,我們已在 85% 的箱型工廠系統中安裝了該裝置。
Our mill investments are paying off, and we're beginning to see reliability improvements as we've expanded our lighthouse learnings to all our mills this year. The combination of our 37% year-over-year EBITDA improvement and 340 basis point margin expansion gives us confidence in our road map and our ability to achieve results in North America.
我們的工廠投資正在取得成效,隨著今年我們將燈塔工廠的經驗推廣到所有工廠,我們開始看到可靠性有所提高。EBITDA 年成長 37%,利潤率提升 340 個基點,這讓我們對我們的發展路線圖和在北美取得業績的能力充滿信心。
Moving to slide 18. As a reminder, we are using adjusted EBITDA for our bridges as a better comparative metric during the company's transformation. Now let me walk you through the sequential variance for the fourth quarter.
切換到第18張投影片。再次提醒大家,在公司轉型期間,我們使用調整後的 EBITDA 作為橋樑業務的更佳比較指標。現在讓我帶您了解第四季的環比差異。
Volume was $87 million unfavorable, largely in line with our expectations due to an almost $60 million impact as a result of exiting the nonstrategic export business as well as the impact of three fewer shipping days in the quarter, which was partially offset by continued momentum in onboarding our strategic customer wins. Operations and costs were $3 million favorable.
交易量為不利的 8700 萬美元,這基本上符合我們的預期,原因是退出非戰略性出口業務造成了近 6000 萬美元的影響,以及本季度發貨天數減少了三天,但戰略客戶持續增長的勢頭部分抵消了這些不利影響。營運和成本方面節省了 300 萬美元。
The cost-out benefit from the mill closures was offset by timing of spending across the business, including transitory costs as we optimize our network in line with our new footprint as well as higher seasonal labor costs. Maintenance and outages were $41 million unfavorable as we continue to invest in the reliability and quality of our mill system. And input costs were $24 million favorable for the quarter primarily due to minimizing the impact from the natural gas curtailment at our Valeant mill early in the quarter, which has now been resolved. All of these leads to an adjusted EBITDA for North America of $560 million for the fourth quarter of 2025. Turning to slide 19.
工廠關閉帶來的成本節約效益被整個業務支出的時間安排所抵消,其中包括我們根據新的佈局優化網絡所產生的過渡性成本,以及更高的季節性勞動力成本。維護和停機造成了 4,100 萬美元的不利損失,因為我們將繼續投資於我們工廠系統的可靠性和品質。本季投入成本節省了 2,400 萬美元,主要原因是本季初 Valeant 工廠天然氣供應減少的影響被降到了最低,而這個問題現在已經解決。所有這些因素共同導致 2025 年第四季北美地區的調整後 EBITDA 為 5.6 億美元。翻到第19張幻燈片。
And looking ahead to 2026, our EBITDA growth will be primarily driven by approximately $100 million of commercial benefits as well as $500 million of cost benefits. Key drivers to this include strategic customer wins in the commercial front as well as cost out benefits across footprint optimization, productivity, supply chain, sourcing and overhead. Those benefits will be offset by approximately $200 million of nonrecurring transformation costs related to our ongoing investments in reliability and capacity, primarily driven by the Riverdale mill conversion in the first half of 2026. These investments are critical to support our profitable growth ambitions and bolster our lightweight capabilities to meet customer demand.
展望 2026 年,我們的 EBITDA 成長將主要由約 1 億美元的商業收益以及 5 億美元的成本效益推動。實現這一目標的關鍵驅動因素包括在商業領域贏得策略客戶,以及在佈局優化、生產力、供應鏈、採購和管理費用方面降低成本。這些收益將被約 2 億美元的非經常性轉型成本所抵消,這些成本與我們持續投資於可靠性和產能有關,主要原因是 2026 年上半年 Riverdale 工廠的改造。這些投資對於支持我們實現獲利成長目標和增強我們的輕量化能力以滿足客戶需求至關重要。
This year, we also expect inflation to rise by approximately $200 million, while we continue to optimize our sourcing and procurement to minimize the impacts. The takeaway here is that we remain confident in our trajectory to deliver on our 2026 targets of $2.5 billion to $2.6 billion with the assumption that the industry growth is flat to up 1% and we outperformed the industry by approximately 2%.
今年,我們預計通貨膨脹將增加約 2 億美元,同時我們將繼續優化採購流程,以最大限度地減少其影響。由此可見,我們仍有信心實現 2026 年 25 億至 26 億美元的目標,前提是產業成長持平或成長 1%,而我們的業績比產業平均高出約 2%。
Our 2026 target does not include the impact of any future pricing realization as we do not forecast price until it publishes. However, we would expect to see an incremental adjusted EBITDA impact of approximately $90 million for every $10 per ton price move on an annualized basis.
我們的 2026 年目標不包括任何未來價格實現的影響,因為我們在價格公佈之前不會預測價格。然而,我們預計,按年計算,每噸價格每變動 10 美元,調整後 EBITDA 將增加約 9,000 萬美元。
Now moving to slide 20. We wanted to provide additional visibility into how we anticipate this year playing out with our planned transformation investments. There are a few factors driving the shape of 2026 that we wanted to be very clear about.
現在轉到第20張投影片。我們希望進一步闡明我們對今年計劃的轉型投資的預期進展。影響 2026 年格局的幾個因素很多,我們想非常清楚地說明這些因素。
In the first half of the year, we expect to see typical seasonality and one fewer shipping day. However, the main driver of our anticipated year-over-year decline comes from our planned investments in reliability, capacity and capabilities. This manifests itself in higher maintenance outages and costs related to our Riverdale mill conversion. All together, these represent approximately $165 million of nonrecurring timing impacts that will unwind in the second half. Normalized for these onetime impacts, we remain on a strong growth trajectory with approximately 10% first half year-over-year EBITDA growth.
今年上半年,我們預計會出現典型的季節性波動,並且出貨天數會減少一天。然而,我們預期年比下降的主要原因是我們在可靠性、產能和能力方面的計畫投資。這導致我們Riverdale工廠改造相關的維護停機時間和成本增加。總計而言,這些影響約為 1.65 億美元,屬於非經常性時間影響,將在下半年逐步消除。在剔除這些一次性影響後,我們仍保持強勁的成長勢頭,上半年 EBITDA 年成長約 10%。
In the second half, we expect our performance to materially accelerate, driven largely by nonrepeating items from the first half and realizing the additional momentum from our 2025 transformation activities. To add some more color on the sequential jump, approximately $200 million will come from returning to a normalized outage schedule, approximately $80 million associated with Riverdale nonrepeating items and margin benefits and a $75 million benefit from second half volume seasonality.
下半年,我們預計業績將大幅加速成長,這主要得益於上半年非重複性專案以及 2025 年轉型活動帶來的額外動力。為了更詳細地說明這一連續增長,大約 2 億美元將來自恢復正常的停機計劃,大約 8000 萬美元與 Riverdale 的非重複性項目和利潤收益有關,7500 萬美元來自下半年的銷售季節性收益。
The remaining $200 million in our plan will be achieved through commercial and operational productivity actions as a part of our 80/20 transformation. The main drivers here are from continued footprint optimization, mill and box productivity improvements from rolling out the Lighthouse model as well as supply chain efficiencies, procurement initiatives and the winding down of ongoing mill costs. Our team remains laser-focused on executing against this plan, and we have high confidence in our ability to deliver. Moving to the first quarter Packaging Solutions North America outlook on slide 21.
計劃中剩餘的 2 億美元將透過商業和營運生產力提升措施來實現,這是我們 80/20 轉型的一部分。主要驅動因素包括:持續優化佔地面積、透過推廣 Lighthouse 模型提高工廠和紙箱生產率、提高供應鏈效率、採購措施以及逐步降低工廠持續營運成本。我們的團隊將繼續全力以赴執行這項計劃,我們對完成任務的能力充滿信心。接下來請看第 21 頁關於北美包裝解決方案第一季展望的內容。
Price and mix are expected to improve by $51 million primarily due to seasonal mix improvement following a heavy e-commerce fourth quarter as well as favorable mix related to our smaller but more strategic export customers. We believe volume to be unfavorable by $68 million. The sequential seasonal decrease as well as the exit of nonstrategic markets more than offset the increased volume from our strategic wins and one additional shipping day. All in, our first quarter 2026 outlook for North America is approximately $534 million of adjusted EBITDA.
價格和產品組合預計將改善 5,100 萬美元,這主要是由於第四季度電子商務強勁增長後季節性產品組合的改善,以及與我們規模較小但更具戰略意義的出口客戶相關的有利產品組合。我們認為成交量不利,預計會減少 6800 萬美元。季節性連續下降以及非策略市場的退出,抵消了策略性勝利帶來的銷售成長和額外一天的出貨量。總的來說,我們對 2026 年第一季北美地區的調整後 EBITDA 預期約為 5.34 億美元。
One more note before we move on. The first quarter outlook I just shared does not include any impact from the winter storm that moved across the United States Southeast this past week. We are currently assessing the impact and at this point, we're estimating that the total impact could be in the range of $20 million to $25 million for the first quarter. That wraps up our review of North America performance and outlook. And with that, let's move on to EMEA. Turning to Packaging Solutions EMEA on slide 22.
在我們繼續之前,還有一點需要說明。我剛剛分享的第一季展望並未包含上週席捲美國東南部的冬季風暴的任何影響。我們目前正在評估其影響,現階段我們估計,第一季的總影響可能在 2,000 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元之間。以上就是我們對北美市場表現與前景的分析。接下來,我們來看看歐洲、中東和非洲地區。請參閱第 22 頁的包裝解決方案 EMEA 部分。
We delivered a solid fourth quarter with sequential EBITDA growth of $19 million. The improvement was primarily driven by favorable pricing on key inputs, including fiber and natural gas, along with benefits for some of our early 80/20 cost actions. From a demand standpoint, the market remains soft, but broadly stable with continued pressure on board pricing. Overall, while we are still in the early stage of our transformation in EMEA, we are starting to see the benefits of our strategy materialize and are very confident of the path ahead. Now on slide 23 and looking at a full year 2026.
我們第四季業績穩健,EBITDA季增1,900萬美元。這項改善主要得益於纖維和天然氣等關鍵投入品的有利價格,以及我們早期實施的一些 80/20 成本控制措施的效益。從需求角度來看,市場依然疲軟,但整體維持穩定,船體價格持續承壓。總的來說,雖然我們在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的轉型仍處於早期階段,但我們已經開始看到我們的策略帶來的好處,並且對未來的道路充滿信心。現在就來看看第 23 張投影片,展望 2026 年全年。
Our adjusted EBITDA growth in EMEA will be driven by $200 million of commercial benefits, primarily driven by above industry growth with continued momentum of flow-through already captured from 2025 growth with our strategic customers. In addition, we expect approximately $200 million of cost-out benefits, primarily driven by footprint and head count optimization as well as cost improvements across procurement, distribution and our mill and box systems.
我們在 EMEA 的調整後 EBITDA 成長將由 2 億美元的商業收益推動,主要得益於高於行業平均水平的增長,以及從我們戰略客戶 2025 年的增長中獲得的持續增長勢頭。此外,我們預計可節省約 2 億美元的成本,主要得益於場地和人員數量的最佳化,以及採購、分銷和工廠及包裝系統方面的成本改進。
We expect these benefits to be offset by approximately $100 million of inflation impact. Overall, we continue to build momentum on our transformation, and we'll continue to act decisively to optimize our footprint and operations while strategically investing in reliability and quality to best serve our EMEA customer base. Moving to slide 24. I want to take a moment to share additional detail on recent actions we've taken to improve our cost position and focus resources on the most attractive markets.
我們預計這些收益將被約 1 億美元的通貨膨脹影響所抵消。總體而言,我們將繼續推進轉型,並將繼續採取果斷行動,優化我們的佈局和運營,同時對可靠性和品質進行策略性投資,以更好地服務我們的 EMEA 客戶群。切換到第24張投影片。我想花點時間分享我們最近為改善成本狀況和將資源集中到最具吸引力的市場所採取的行動的更多細節。
In 2025, we actioned closures across 20 sites reducing head count by more than 1,400 positions. While we are engaged in ongoing consultation on our additional 7 sites and more than 700 roles, we expect this to deliver run rate cost savings of more than $160 million.
2025年,我們關閉了20個地點,減少了1400多個職位。雖然我們正在就新增的 7 個地點和 700 多個職位進行持續磋商,但我們預計這將帶來超過 1.6 億美元的年度成本節約。
At the same time, it's important to recognize these actions affect people and their families. We do not make these decisions lightly, and I want to thank the employees across these facilities and offices for their professionalism, dedication and contributions to the company. Turning to slide 25 and our outlook for the first quarter.
同時,我們必須認識到這些行為會影響個人及其家庭。我們做出這些決定並非輕率之舉,我要感謝這些工廠和辦公室的員工們所展現的專業、奉獻精神以及對公司的貢獻。接下來請看第 25 張投影片,了解我們對第一季的展望。
We expect EBITDA to be roughly in line with the fourth quarter. We anticipate price and volume tailwinds of approximately $33 million driven by favorable mix and continued benefits from our strategic wins in 2025. Option costs are higher by $42 million, primarily driven by the timing of energy subsidies typically received in the second half of the year as well as costs related to accounting policy changes. We continue to build momentum with our strategic actions while managing through ongoing market volatility and focusing on those things that we can control as we execute our plan.
我們預計 EBITDA 將與第四季大致持平。我們預計,在有利的產品組合和策略性勝利帶來的持續收益的推動下,2025 年價格和銷售將獲得約 3,300 萬美元的利多。選擇權成本增加了 4,200 萬美元,主要原因是能源補貼通常在下半年發放,以及與會計政策變更相關的成本。我們將繼續透過策略行動積蓄力量,同時應對持續的市場波動,並專注於我們能夠控制的事情,以執行我們的計劃。
Now let me turn it back over to Andy, who will close it out with some key takeaways from today. Andy?
現在讓我們把麥克風交還給安迪,他將總結今天的主要內容。安迪?
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Thank you, Lance. Turning to slide 26 and our full year 2026 targets. We are confident in our trajectory, our plan for the coming year and our ability to execute against our targets for 2026. We're projecting enterprise net sales of $24.1 billion to $24.9 billion with adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion and free cash flow of $300 million to $500 million. As for the first quarter, including corporate, we're guiding to $740 million to $760 million of adjusted EBITDA.
謝謝你,蘭斯。接下來請看第 26 頁投影片,了解我們 2026 年全年目標。我們對我們的發展軌跡、來年的計劃以及實現 2026 年目標的能力充滿信心。我們預期企業淨銷售額為 241 億美元至 249 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 35 億美元至 37 億美元,自由現金流為 3 億美元至 5 億美元。至於第一季度,包括公司業務在內,我們預計調整後 EBITDA 為 7.4 億美元至 7.6 億美元。
Importantly, as Lance mentioned earlier, our guidance does not include the impact of price actions. The enhanced positioning and greater efficiency that we've realized through our strategic actions in 80/20 implementation have us well positioned for 2026, and we expect that we will begin to see that flow through in the coming year. As we discussed today, we are taking swift and decisive action to create long-term value for our shareholders.
重要的是,正如蘭斯之前提到的,我們的指導意見不包括價格波動的影響。我們在 80/20 策略實施中採取的行動,提升了我們的市場地位,提高了我們的效率,使我們為 2026 年做好了充分準備,我們預計明年將開始看到這種成果。正如我們今天所討論的,我們正在採取迅速而果斷的行動,為股東創造長期價值。
The combination of IP and DS Smith created two regional powerhouses that are leading providers of sustainable packaging solutions with significant scale and strong customer relationships. Our 80/20 actions over the past year have reduced complexity in each region. And the next step to continue the transformation is to segment the businesses so they can realize their full potential.
IP 和 DS Smith 的合併造就了兩家區域性巨頭,它們是永續包裝解決方案的領先供應商,擁有顯著的規模和強大的客戶關係。過去一年,我們採取的 80/20 措施降低了各個地區的複雜性。而繼續轉型的下一步是將業務進行細分,以便它們能夠充分發揮潛力。
Separating the businesses will provide each with the ability to best align capital and resources to distinct regional opportunities, market environments and customer needs. Each business will have the necessary ingredients, including strong investment-grade balance sheets to execute its 80/20 plan and the virtuous strategic cycle in the most effective way possible. We believe this is the most certain path to deliver our 2027 target of $5 billion of EBITDA and enable each business to achieve best-in-class performance and best-in-class valuation as we create long-term value for our shareholders.
將各項業務分開後,每家公司都能更好地將資本和資源與不同的區域機會、市場環境和客戶需求相匹配。每個企業都將具備必要的要素,包括強大的投資等級資產負債表,以最有效的方式執行其 80/20 計畫和良性策略循環。我們相信這是實現 2027 年 EBITDA 50 億美元目標的最可靠途徑,並使每個業務都能取得一流的業績和一流的估值,同時為我們的股東創造長期價值。
At this time, let's open up the line to questions.
現在,我們開通提問環節。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) George Staphos, Bank of America.
(操作員說明)喬治·斯塔福斯,美國銀行。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for the details. My question in your free cash flow guidance of $300 million to $500 million, can you give us some of the other important assumptions that are in there? I don't believe price is in there, but if you could confirm that related -- is -- are you out with a price letter to customers? And then most importantly in terms of the question, if you want to just take this, $300 million, $500 million doesn't cover your dividend, Andy, with the spin. Might you consider reviewing the dividend policy over time? Thank you.
早安.謝謝你提供的詳細資訊。我的問題是,在您給出的3億至5億美元的自由現金流預期中,您能否告訴我們其中還包含哪些其他重要的假設?我不認為價格資訊包含在內,但如果您能確認相關事宜—是否—您是否已向客戶發出價格函?然後,就這個問題而言,最重要的是,如果你只想說,3億美元、5億美元並不足以支付你的股息,安迪,別再胡亂猜測了。您是否會考慮定期審查股利政策?謝謝。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So first, yes, we are out with a price letter. We have done that earlier this week. And so that will play itself out in the normal course of business. As you noted, no, there is no inclusion of price in the numbers that we have provided today into the guidance that we have provided an incremental price to come through. And as Lance said, in there, each $10 of price that sticks is worth about $90 million of price realization into the market. So that -- I think that covers that question there.
首先,是的,我們已經發出了報價函。我們本週早些時候已經完成了這項工作。因此,這種情況會在正常的商業運作過程中得到解決。正如您所指出的,不,我們今天提供的數字中沒有包含價格,我們給出的指導意見中也沒有包含價格,只是給出了一個增量價格。正如蘭斯所說,在市場上,每10美元的價格如果能站穩腳跟,就相當於實現了約9000萬美元的價格。所以——我想這個問題就此解答了。
Lance can cover any other topics you want to talk on about other elements of free cash flow. What was the second part of the question, George?
蘭斯可以解答您想討論的關於自由現金流其他方面的任何其他主題。喬治,問題的第二部分是什麼?
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
It's on the dividend.
這是分紅的一部分。
George Staphos - Analyst
George Staphos - Analyst
The dividend, $1 billion and the free cash flow, $300 million, $500 million, might the spin be an opportunity to review the policy and how do you feel about it? Thank you.
股息為 10 億美元,自由現金流為 3 億至 5 億美元,這次分拆是否是重新檢視政策的機會?您對此有何感想?謝謝。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes, sure. So we've said all along that covering the dividend was about $3.6 billion to $3.7 billion of EBITDA is the breakeven. Obviously, in 2026, we have substantial restructuring costs that are going in and some onetime costs that don't fit into the restructuring line. So you've got a combination of those things.
當然可以。所以我們一直都說,支付股息所需的 EBITDA 大約是 36 億美元至 37 億美元,這是一個損益平衡點。顯然,到 2026 年,我們將面臨大量的重組成本,以及一些不屬於重組範圍的一次性成本。所以,你這裡同時包含了這些因素。
We are maintaining our dividend policy as it is through 2026. And of course, through any process like this, you're going to review that work in conjunction with shareholders to make sure we get to the right place on a dividend post spin, and we'll evaluate that throughout the year in conversation with the shareholders.
我們將維持現行的股利政策至2026年。當然,在任何類似過程中,您都需要與股東一起審查這項工作,以確保我們在分拆後達到正確的股息水平,並且我們將在全年與股東的溝通中對此進行評估。
Operator
Operator
Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.
馬克溫特勞布,海港研究夥伴公司。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Thank you. Good morning. A few really straightforward questions. One is -- so on some of the slides, it says like at the segment level, it doesn't exclude -- that it's excluding corporate. And then on the final slide, it doesn't sort of say anything about that. So just one clarification. How should we be thinking about corporate relative to the various numbers you're putting out there, that $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion. Is that included or not included?
謝謝。早安.幾個非常簡單的問題。其中一點是——所以在一些幻燈片上,它說在細分市場層面,它不排除——它排除了企業。而最後一張幻燈片卻對此隻字未提。還有一個問題需要澄清。我們該如何看待您提出的各種數字,例如 35 億至 37 億美元?這個包含在內嗎?
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
So the guide that Andy gave on a total company basis, $740 million to $760 million includes the impact of corporate. So if you take what we gave you on the region slides and the difference between that should cover the corporate line item.
因此,安迪給出的以公司整體為基礎的指導方針,7.4 億美元至 7.6 億美元,包含了公司營運的影響。所以,如果你把我們在區域投影片中提供的內容與公司預算之間的差額做比較,應該就能涵蓋公司預算項目了。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Same thing for the year, Mark.
今年也一樣,馬克。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. And with the spin, is there any meaningful change to what you expect corporate costs would go to?
好的。考慮到這種政策調整,您認為企業成本的去向會發生任何實質的變化嗎?
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, they would go to their independent regions. But in terms of being an overall increase, no, there would not be.
他們會回到各自的獨立區域。但就整體成長而言,不,不會。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Okay. Very good. And then second, any quick reason why -- and maybe this is normal of course, but why 12 to 15 months to complete this process? It seems like a long time to me, but maybe I'm just wrong.
好的。非常好。其次,能否簡單解釋一下原因——當然,這或許很正常,但為什麼完成這個過程需要 12 到 15 個月?我覺得時間過得很慢,但也許是我感覺錯了。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I'll touch on that. There's -- you get the mechanics, frankly, of accounting, right? There's just -- it's a heavy lift from an accounting perspective. What we don't have here is kind of large legal entity issues or things like that. And obviously, we're going to move to do it as quickly as possible, Mark, but the best guidance that we've been giving in the precedent is usually somewhere in that 12- to 15-month time frame.
我會稍微談到這一點。坦白說,你了解會計的運作機制,對吧?從會計角度來看,這確實是一項艱鉅的任務。我們這裡沒有大型法律實體之類的問題。顯然,我們會盡快採取行動,馬克,但我們在先例中給出的最佳指導意見通常是在 12 到 15 個月的時間範圍內。
Lance, anything you'd add to that?
蘭斯,你還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
No. I would say -- I would echo Andy's comments. I think this is a little different than if you look back at the Sylvamo exercise we went through several years ago that had a lot more operational tethering that we had to unwind to get that to where it needed to be. This is largely an accounting exercise that we're going to start off today in real haste to try to get this thing done by the end of the year. But right now, we're contemplating 12 to 15 months.
不。我同意安迪的觀點。我認為這與我們幾年前進行的西爾瓦莫演習略有不同,當時有很多操作上的牽絆,我們必須解開這些牽絆才能使演習達到所需的狀態。這主要是一項會計工作,我們今天將抓緊時間開始,爭取在年底前完成。但目前,我們預計需要 12 到 15 個月。
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
Mark Weintraub - Analyst
And one last one and hopefully not an unfair one, but so you've got this big step up in the second half of next year, particularly in North America, and you lay it out very clearly. It does include a big cost takeout acceleration, that $200 million. And if we look back, you had a great first quarter relative to expectations, et cetera. And then the last three quarters, though, you fall in shy on ops and costs. And so maybe talk a little bit about why you have a lot of confidence that you get back on track and you can deliver a really big number second half of 2026.
最後一個問題,希望不會顯得不公平,但明年下半年,尤其是在北美地區,你們將迎來一個重大飛躍,你們對此闡述得非常清楚。其中包括大幅削減成本,即 2 億美元。回顧過去,你們第一季的業績遠超預期等等。然而,在最後三個季度,你們在營運和成本方面都表現不佳。所以,或許可以談談你為什麼對重回正軌並能在 2026 年下半年取得非常亮眼的成績充滿信心。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, a few things in there, Mark. So first and foremost, the vast majority of what we're talking about are things that have been actioned and the tail here are the cost of finalizing that. So as an example, closures and the lingering cost of finalizing those closures, those tails start to fall off as we get through this year. That's a big one.
是的,裡面有一些東西,馬克。首先,我們討論的大部分內容都是已經採取行動的事情,而尾聲部分則是完成這些行動的成本。舉例來說,企業倒閉以及完成這些倒閉的後續成本,隨著今年的推進,這些後續成本開始下降。那可是個大問題。
Second, we've got more actions. They're not the large-scale actions that we've seen so far, but we're starting to get much more into the nitty-gritty around things like supply chain and procurement distribution rolling out the Lighthouse models throughout the mill system and the productivity investments that we're ramping up going into that. And so there's a lot of intensity to happen last year and certainly throughout this year, that's going to continue to drive those. So those benefits start to accumulate more and more as time goes on through there.
其次,我們還有更多行動。雖然這些行動不像我們目前所看到的那麼大規模,但我們開始更深入地研究供應鏈和採購分銷等細節問題,在整個工廠系統中推廣燈塔模型,以及我們正在加強提高生產力。因此,去年以及今年都會發生很多激烈的事情,而這些事情也將繼續推動這些事情的發展。因此,隨著時間的推移,這些好處會不斷累積。
So the key to it is it's literally -- the costs have got to be counted down to the penny in terms of facilities, impact of people, which is always unfortunate, but a tough reality in the transformation. And that's the level of granularity we're operating at. And that's both in North America and you saw for the first time today that we were able to -- now that we've gotten past a bunch of the consultation periods, to lay out the granularity in Europe, and you can see the magnitude of what we're doing in Europe that we will accelerate throughout the year. So this is extremely granular.
所以關鍵在於——必須精確計算設施成本和人員影響,這總是令人遺憾的,但卻是轉型過程中一個殘酷的現實。這就是我們目前所採用的粒度等級。北美地區的情況也是如此,而且今天你們第一次看到,我們已經度過了許多諮詢期,現在可以詳細闡述歐洲的情況,你們可以看到我們在歐洲所做的事情的規模,我們將在今年加快推進這些工作。所以這非常細緻。
Look, I'm also realistic. There's a lot of moving parts. There's no doubt about it, but we are executing quite well.
你看,我也很現實。牽涉的環節很多。這點毋庸置疑,我們的執行情況相當不錯。
Operator
Operator
Charlie Muir-Sands, BNP Paribas.
查理·繆爾-桑茲,法國巴黎銀行。
Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst
Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst
Just firstly, if I could just ask on volumes. You alluded to your belief that you gained share in the second half of the year in North America. It seems likely albeit we haven't seen the industry data yet. Can you just talk about the relative profitability you're seeing on those new wins versus the old business you lost.
首先,請問一下銷量方面的問題。你曾暗示你認為你在北美市場下半年獲得了市場份額。雖然我們還沒有看到行業數據,但這似乎很有可能。能否談談這些新客戶帶來的相對獲利能力,以及你失去的舊客戶帶來的獲利能力?
And also, I think you suggested there's something similar in EMEA. I wondered if you could share any kind of like-for-like or pro forma volume performance you've achieved in that region. Thanks.
而且,我想你之前也提到過 EMEA 地區也有類似的情況。我想知道您能否分享您在該地區取得的任何類似或按預測的銷售業績。謝謝。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Charlie, I apologize, you were pretty muffled on that call, so I'm going to do my best where I think I heard the question, which is really around the volume wins and the quality of profitability around those volume wins, if I understood it right.
查理,很抱歉,你剛才在電話裡的聲音有點含糊不清,所以我只能盡力根據我聽到的內容來回答你的問題,如果我理解正確的話,你的問題主要是關於銷量增長以及這些銷量增長帶來的盈利質量。
Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst
Charlie Muir-Sands - Analyst
Right.
正確的。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So they're very good. As you recall back a couple of years ago, we really started to reset our discipline around assuring that we were pricing to market, and we've obviously kept that discipline. And if you look at the volume wins we've had in North America, they have been absolutely at those quality levels that we've been talking about. And so I feel really good about the business that we're winning and coming on.
所以他們非常出色。你可能還記得,幾年前,我們開始重新調整定價策略,確保價格與市場行情相符,而且我們顯然一直堅持了這個原則。如果你看看我們在北美取得的銷售勝利,你會發現它們的品質水準完全符合我們一直以來所說的標準。因此,我對我們正在贏得和即將取得的業務進展感到非常滿意。
Again, we won substantial market share here in North America in the back half of the year. We were 3 or 4 points above market. We'll find out where the market actually settled later on here, but we feel very confident given the other results that we've seen that we have one quality market share, and you can see the expanding margins at the same time.
今年下半年,我們在北美市場再次贏得了相當大的市場份額。我們比市場平均高出3到4個百分點。稍後我們會了解市場最終的走向,但鑑於我們已經看到的其他結果,我們非常有信心我們擁有一個高品質的市場份額,同時您也可以看到利潤率也在不斷擴大。
In Europe, right, the market has been softer in Europe. And just like in the US, you have to play where the market is. We have been really disciplined about making sure that we are bringing our value to the market, and we're not chasing bad business. That's very important in a softer market, and we have not been doing that.
沒錯,歐洲市場一直比較疲軟。就像在美國一樣,你必須在市場所在的地方進行投資。我們一直非常注重確保我們為市場帶來價值,並且不去追求糟糕的生意。在市場疲軟的情況下,這一點非常重要,而我們卻沒有做到這一點。
And again, you can count it by meters or you can count it by tons, we can see where those wins have come in and then how they'll be layered into the year. So we feel good about the wins that we have. We feel good about the commercial momentum in both regions, particularly in North America, where we won substantial market share, and our work is to keep that momentum continuing.
而且,你可以按米來計算,也可以按噸來計算,我們可以看到這些勝利來自哪裡,以及它們將如何融入這一年。所以我們對所取得的勝利感到滿意。我們對這兩個地區的商業發展勢頭感到滿意,尤其是在北美,我們贏得了相當大的市場份額,我們的工作就是保持這種發展勢頭。
Operator
Operator
Phil Ng, Jefferies.
Phil Ng,傑富瑞集團。
Philip Ng - Analyst
Philip Ng - Analyst
Thanks for all the great color. A lot to unpack. I guess, to kind of kick things off, the 2026 guidance. Lance, last quarter, you guys gave us a nice slide deck calling out $600 million of self-help and commercial efforts. Certainly, there's -- it feels like there's some movement, but the guide itself, does it account for any incremental cost actions that has yet to be announced? So -- or is that kind of accounted for?
感謝你們帶來如此美好的色彩。資訊量很大,需要仔細分析。我想,為了拉開序幕,先來看看 2026 年的指導。蘭斯,上個季度你們為我們做了一份很棒的幻燈片,列出了 6 億美元的自助和商業努力。當然,感覺上確實有一些進展,但是這份指南本身是否考慮到了尚未公佈的任何新增成本措施?所以——或者說,這種情況已經被考慮在內了嗎?
Second, I think on the commercial front, certainly better in North America and Europe. And correct me if I'm wrong, Lance, the North America piece accounts for the exports, you kind of co-mingled it. So where are you seeing some of the wins on the commercial side, whether it's North America and Europe? I mean, Europe, I'm particularly curious, just give -- I thought the commercial side of things were quite good, but it was more on the cost out. So help us kind of see through some of those dynamics.
其次,我認為在商業方面,北美和歐洲的情況肯定要好一些。蘭斯,如果我沒記錯的話,北美那部分指的是出口額,你好像把它們混在一起了。那麼,您認為在商業方面,北美和歐洲有哪些成功案例呢?我的意思是,歐洲,我特別好奇,就給──我覺得商業方面還不錯,但成本方面就比較高了。所以請您幫我們看清楚其中的一些動態。
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
So I'll start with the cost-out side. So what we described, I think, infamously, it was like slide 15 on the deck on the third quarter call where we talked about a lot of the momentum that we had in carrying over things that had already been announced in 2025 and what that impact would be. I think that was the $500 million that you were characterizing.
那麼,我先從成本分析方面說起。所以,我們所描述的內容,我認為,可以說是臭名昭著的,就像第三季度電話會議的演示文稿第 15 頁,我們談到了我們在延續 2025 年已經宣布的一些事項方面所取得的很多進展,以及這將產生的影響。我想這就是你所說的5億美元吧。
We are going to continue to optimize in North America around our 80/20 transformation. So it's an incremental $200 million of cost benefit that should be accruing to us as we continue to execute that plan as we look to -- into second half of '26 and into 2027.
我們將繼續在北美地區圍繞我們的 80/20 轉型進行優化。因此,隨著我們繼續執行該計劃,到 2026 年下半年和 2027 年,我們應該會獲得 2 億美元的額外成本效益。
On the commercial side, we're really pleased with the amount of progress that we've made about. We're ahead of schedule. I think as Andy mentioned, in terms of North America and our exit this year in the fourth quarter. And we thought we'd be at market. We're clearly ahead of that and we're excited about onboarding some very important customers that allow us to achieve those metrics.
在商業方面,我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。我們進度超前。我認為正如安迪所提到的那樣,就北美市場而言,我們將在今年第四季退出市場。我們當時以為我們會去市集。我們顯然已經領先一步,我們很高興能夠迎來一些非常重要的客戶,這將使我們能夠實現這些指標。
And we're excited about the wins that we've got in Europe. We expect to outperform. We believe the market next year will be up 1.7%, I believe, next year and -- or excuse me, in 2026 and we believe will outperform by about 50 basis points ahead of that. So we're excited about the momentum that we've got in that market as well.
我們對我們在歐洲的勝利感到興奮。我們預期業績將優於預期。我們相信明年市場將上漲 1.7%,我相信,明年——或者抱歉,是 2026 年——市場也將上漲,我們相信,在此之前,市場表現將比預期高出約 50 個基點。所以,我們對目前在該市場上的發展動能也感到非常興奮。
Philip Ng - Analyst
Philip Ng - Analyst
Got it. So just so if I heard you correctly, Lance, the upside on the cost out, the $200 million that's incremental cost actions you haven't taken in the back half of '26 that you still need to execute...
知道了。所以,蘭斯,如果我沒理解錯的話,成本削減的好處是,2億美元是你在2026年下半年尚未採取但仍需執行的增量成本措施…
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Phil, those will be -- those are -- that amount and those actions are stuff that was not announced or actioned in 2025 that we will continue in terms of our momentum into 2026.
菲爾,那些將是——那些是——那個數額和那些行動是2025年沒有宣布或採取的行動,我們將把這些勢頭延續到2026年。
Philip Ng - Analyst
Philip Ng - Analyst
Okay. And the other piece I wanted to tease out, perhaps for you, Andy. Mark kind of teased it out already last year, a nice beat in the first quarter and the Q2 to Q4 was a little uneven. Just want to give us some comfort that the framework you've laid out accounts for any hiccups along the way just because it's a choppy environment. So like how you kind of laid out the framework where -- is this conservative or are you making like a lot of stuff kind of has to kind of stick the landing just because you got a lot of moving pieces here.
好的。還有一點我想跟你細說,也許是說給你聽的,安迪。馬克去年就已經暗示過這一點了,第一季表現不錯,但第二季到第四季有點不穩定。只是想讓我們放心,您制定的框架已經考慮到了過程中可能出現的任何小問題,因為目前的環境並不穩定。所以就像你大致勾勒出的框架——這是保守的,還是你認為很多事情都必須順利完成,因為這裡有很多變數。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
I think the range that we've given provides a pretty decent margin in there in terms of the $740 million to $760 million in the quarter and the $3.5 billion to $3.7 billion in the year. In terms of kind of -- I would just call them good guys, bad guys, how do you think about that over the year.
我認為我們給出的範圍在季度 7.4 億美元至 7.6 億美元和年度 35 億美元至 37 億美元之間留出了相當大的餘地。就某種程度上來說──我會稱他們為好人、壞人,你一年來是怎麼看待這個問題的?
On the good guy side, the year has started strong, and I will certainly say that January was strong. Obviously, the ice storm, that's going to be on the bad guy side, to see kind of what that impact is going to be. It's a super thumbnail sketch of $20 million to $25 million. It's just hard to know, right? You could make that up. But certainly, mill shutdowns and certainly some of the areas that were hit hard in terms of box.
從正面來看,今年開局強勁,而且我敢肯定地說,一月份的表現非常出色。顯然,冰暴將是不利因素,我們需要看看它會產生什麼影響。這是一個預算在 2000 萬到 2500 萬美元之間的超粗略估計。很難知道,對吧?你可以編造出來。但可以肯定的是,工廠停工以及一些地區在包裝方面受到了嚴重衝擊。
The box side will come back fast, but you got some mill impact that we'll see how that plays out because that's a pretty modest bad guy that's out there. Again, the January has started strong. We've seen that in our daily numbers. We'd expect that to even off throughout the year. And again, we said we thought the North American market would be flat to up 1%, and we'll take a couple of points of market share in there.
盒子那邊會很快恢復,但磨坊那邊會受到一些影響,我們看看結果如何,因為外面有個相當不起眼的壞傢伙。1月的開局依然強勁。我們從每日數據中已經看到了這一點。我們預計這種情況會在一年內趨於平穩。我們之前說過,我們認為北美市場將持平或成長 1%,我們將在那裡獲得幾個百分點的市場份額。
In terms of other good guys, right, we don't have anything in here for price. And we don't normally do that. We don't normally guide that. And so we've kept to that practice. But depending upon what happens with pricing, that's a pretty substantial good guy that's not in any of our numbers here.
至於其他好人,沒錯,我們這裡沒有價格方面的資訊。我們通常不會這樣做。我們通常不會對此進行指導。所以我們就一直沿用這種做法。但具體情況還要看價格走勢,他是一位實力相當不錯的球員,但我們這裡的數據裡並沒有他。
The real big, bad guy is potentially out there, we don't know is what we faced last year was the global economy. And again, right now, things have started well, but that's hard to predict throughout there. So I feel good about where we are. I think that they're -- given the pricing there's more upside than downside in terms of opportunity. And so we feel like we played it down the middle.
真正的大反派可能就在那裡,我們不知道,去年我們面臨的是全球經濟。再次強調,目前情況開局良好,但這種情況很難預測。所以我對我們目前的狀況感到滿意。我認為,就目前的定價而言,它們帶來的收益大於風險。所以我們覺得我們採取了中立的策略。
Operator
Operator
Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.
Mike Roxland,Truist Securities。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Thank you, Andy, Lance, Mandi, and team, for taking my questions. Some costs in North America appear to be more sticky, like mobile liability, et cetera. I mean, your volume is up for [2%] in 4Q better than you expected, yet EBITDA missed. So wondering if you can speak to cost in North America, which ones are more problematic, sticker, how you intend to tackle them?
感謝Andy、Lance、Mandi和團隊回答我的問題。北美的一些成本似乎更難改變,例如行動責任保險等。我的意思是,你們第四季的銷售成長了 2%,比你們預期的要好,但 EBITDA 卻沒達到預期。所以我想問一下,您能否談談北美地區的成本問題,哪些成本問題比較嚴重,以及您打算如何解決這些問題?
And with the cost structure in North America, part of your calculus in terms of deciding to spin out Europe. And what I'm trying to get is if you have to deal with the cost structure that's a little bit more challenging than you expected, it's harder to tackle that plus having a European arm as well. So any color you can provide would be helpful. Thank you.
考慮到北美的成本結構,這也是你在決定是否將歐洲業務分拆出去時需要考慮的因素之一。我想表達的是,如果你要應付的成本結構比你預期的更具挑戰性,那麼再加上還要經營歐洲分公司,就更難應付了。所以,您提供的任何顏色資訊都將對我們有所幫助。謝謝。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So on the cost side, look, I'm really happy with what we've done. We've taken out over $700 million in total cost when you look at the execution on that. So I'm very happy with the progress that we've made on that. The things that are harder to get at, there's really two, right?
所以從成本方面來說,你看,我對我們所做的工作非常滿意。從執行情況來看,我們已經節省了超過 7 億美元的總成本。我對我們在這方面取得的進展非常滿意。比較難得到的東西,其實只有兩樣,對吧?
One is the speed at which you take things down and all of those costs go away, right? So as you close a mill, there tend to be lingering costs during the shutdown and ultimately into the final closure and then potentially the sale or disposal of the property. Those tend to linger a little bit.
其一是你能以多快的速度拆除這些東西,這樣所有成本就都消失了,對吧?因此,在關閉工廠時,在停產期間以及最終關閉時,往往會產生持續的成本,然後可能會產生出售或處置該財產的成本。這些症狀往往會持續一段時間。
And then on the reliability front, it's as we have described, which is you've got to get in there and you've got to make the investments consistently over a period of time to drive the reliability and not have things pop up that can be very expensive in any given period. I mean, as you know, a singular mill struggling can be $100 million hit in a year easily, if a mill is really struggling.
至於可靠性方面,正如我們所描述的,你必須投入時間和精力,持續進行投資,才能提高可靠性,避免任何時期內代價高昂的問題。我的意思是,你也知道,如果一家工廠真的經營困難,一年內很容易損失 1 億美元。
And so we are putting -- aggressively investing back into our mill system in North America. And that's -- if you look at the expanded CapEx, if you look at the onetime accelerated transformation costs, even the Lighthouse rollout. Those are all things that we are doing to drive that reliability. It's absolutely showing up for the customers. They're feeling that positive reliability and it's showing up in their customer satisfaction numbers. It's showing up in our cost numbers. But it is, that's a slug fest. And you got to stick with it and the team is doing an excellent job.
因此,我們正積極加大對北美工廠系統的投資。如果你看看擴大的資本支出,看看一次性加速轉型成本,甚至是燈塔計畫的推廣,就會發現這一點。這些都是我們為提高可靠性所採取的措施。它確實為顧客帶來了實實在在的好處。他們感受到了這種積極的可靠性,這也反映在他們的客戶滿意度數據中。這已經反映在我們的成本數據中了。但事實的確如此,那是一場激烈的較量。你必須堅持下去,團隊做得非常出色。
On the European side, look, what Tim and team are doing in Europe is pretty exceptional. They are tackling structural costs in a way that's very unusual in the European marketplace. And you can see from the magnitude of what was on that one slide that we're getting after it. And so we're getting after it fast, and we'll continue to do that throughout 2026.
在歐洲方面,蒂姆和他的團隊在歐洲的成就非常出色。他們應對結構性成本的方式在歐洲市場上非常罕見。從那張投影片上的內容的規模,你就能看出我們接下來要達成的成就。因此,我們正在迅速推進,並且我們將在 2026 年繼續這樣做。
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Michael Roxland - Analyst
Got it. Just one quick follow-up. I mean, so it sounds like with respect to Europe, the costs are -- the hard to get at and taking a little bit longer. So was that part of what was packed into your -- was that what you consider in terms of the spin? Was that a huge factor in terms of your consideration for spinning Europe? Because...
知道了。還有一個後續問題。我的意思是,聽起來就歐洲而言,成本是——難以獲取,而且需要更長的時間。所以,這是否是你考慮的因素之一——這是否就是你認為的旋轉方式?當你考慮將業務拓展到歐洲時,這是否是重要因素?因為...
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
No, not at all. The real driver for this decision is the fact that the value is really in the regions. When you get right down to it and you look at where value is created, the acquisition and the combination, what it did was it created two regional powerhouses that really have very, very, very little overlap. I'm talking almost zero overlap in terms of how those businesses -- they're structured in the market, how those businesses go to market with customers and how you execute all the way from inputs, fiber supply all the way through the market.
不,完全不是。促成這項決定的真正原因是,價值確實存在於各個地區。歸根結底,當你審視價值的創造點,也就是收購和合併時,你會發現它創造了兩個區域巨頭,而這兩個巨頭之間的重疊部分非常非常少。我指的是這些企業在市場中的結構、與客戶打交道的方式以及從投入、纖維供應到整個市場的執行方式方面,幾乎沒有任何重疊。
They're really distinctive markets. And so using 80/20 as the lens and as the mindset, you want to simplify, right? You want to take the complexity out, you want to focus on where the value is in the discrete markets. and then you want to get capital and people aligned and focused to those best opportunities. And that's really the driver there.
它們是各具特色的市場。所以,以 80/20 法則為視角和思考方式,你想簡化問題,對嗎?你想簡化複雜性,專注於各個細分市場中的價值。然後,你想讓資金和人員集中起來,專注於這些最佳機會。這才是真正的驅動因素。
The exciting opportunity in Europe is even with the headwinds that the business had all of last year, with a combination of the war in Ukraine and trade tensions and the softness in the market is the business performed well relative to the marketplace and is getting after the changes in a way that's really distinctive to that marketplace. And this business coming out as a stand-alone business is going to have a great balance sheet. It's going to have great positioning in the market, top of its class in terms of customer satisfaction and the ability to direct and align people and capital to that unique mission, and that's really what this is all about. So I'm super excited for what Tim and the team have lined up.
儘管去年公司面臨許多不利因素,包括烏克蘭戰爭、貿易緊張局勢以及市場疲軟,但歐洲市場仍蘊藏著令人興奮的機會。公司相對於市場表現良好,並以真正獨特的方式應對市場變化。這家公司獨立出來後,資產負債表將會非常出色。它將在市場上佔據優越的地位,在客戶滿意度方面名列前茅,並且能夠引導和協調人員和資金以實現其獨特的使命,而這才是這一切的真正意義所在。所以我對蒂姆和他的團隊的計劃感到非常興奮。
And as an independent company, I believe it's going to thrive having that focus and that aligned capital allocation, and the same thing in the US. And this really allows us for each to realize its unique mission and really drive incredible value.
作為一家獨立公司,我相信憑藉這種專注和協調的資本配置,它一定會蓬勃發展,在美國也是如此。這確實能夠讓每個人實現其獨特的使命,並真正創造巨大的價值。
Operator
Operator
Anojja Shah, UBS.
阿諾賈·沙阿,瑞銀集團。
Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst
Anojja Shah - Equity Analyst
Good morning. I just wanted a quick clarification. So clearly, the price increase is not built into commercial initiatives in North America, I get that, I read you loud and clear. But in EMEA, the commercial initiative bucket is now $200 million in contribution. I think in Q3, it was $100 million. So what happened there? And can you confirm that if price goes down in Europe, whether that's already in that bucket or not?
早安.我只是想快速確認一下。所以很明顯,北美地區的商業措施並沒有考慮到價格上漲,我明白了,我完全理解你的意思。但在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,商業計劃基金的撥款金額目前為 2 億美元。我認為第三季是1億美元。那裡到底發生了什麼事?請問如果歐洲物價下跌,是否已經包含在那個範圍內了?
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yes. So specific to -- so yes, you're correct on North America first. There is nothing in there in terms of price. In EMEA, same thing. It's only things that have been executed, and we have line of sight to. So you have the underlying assumption of market growth in there, which, as Lance said, was 1.7%. And then you got a 0.5 point, which are wins that we know that we have today. And so we do not have incremental price that has not been -- that is not settled into the market built into there. So there is no price.
是的。所以具體來說——是的,你首先說的是北美,這是正確的。裡面沒有任何價格資訊。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區,情況也是如此。只有已經執行過的事情,而且我們能夠看到這些事情。所以,其中存在著市場成長的潛在假設,正如蘭斯所說,這個數字是 1.7%。然後你得到了 0.5 分,這是我們今天所知道的勝利。因此,我們沒有尚未納入市場定價的增量價格。所以沒有價格。
Now that being said, as I mentioned in my remarks, just as there's a $70 price increase in North America that's been put out into the marketplace by us to our customers. In Europe, there have been a lot of -- there's been a lot of activity, and there's about EUR100 paper price increase has gone out in most markets. And what we don't know is whether kind of what's going to stick. It's a more dynamic market.
話雖如此,正如我在演講中提到的,我們在北美市場已經向我們的客戶宣布了 70 美元的價格上漲。在歐洲,市場活動頻繁,大多數市場的紙張價格上漲了約 100 歐元。我們不知道的是,哪些方法會奏效。這是一個更具活力的市場。
In the US on an annualized basis, if you got every penny of that, that's a little over $600 million, about $630 million. And in Europe, if you got every penny of that, it would be about $300 million incrementally from what we're talking about today. But in neither case do we have those built into the numbers.
在美國,按年計算,如果你能拿到每一分錢,那就是略高於 6 億美元,大約 6.3 億美元。而在歐洲,如果能把這筆錢全部拿到手,那將比我們今天討論的金額增加約 3 億美元。但無論哪種情況,這些數字都沒有包含這些因素。
Operator
Operator
Detlef Winckelmann, JPMorgan.
Detlef Winckelmann,摩根大通。
Detlef Winckelmann - Analyst
Detlef Winckelmann - Analyst
Morning, guys. Just if I can ask two, maybe the first one, regarding your commercial improvements year-on-year, that you've guided for now, it looks like about $100 million in North America. If I go back to third quarter, it was sitting at about $300 million based on your bridge that you gave. Just wondering if anything has changed and why the delta?
早上好,各位。我可以問兩個問題嗎?或許第一個問題是關於你們目前給出的商業業績逐年成長的預期,看起來在北美地區大約是 1 億美元。如果我回到第三季度,根據你捐贈的橋樑基金,當時的金額大約是 3 億美元。想知道是否有任何變化以及為什麼會有這樣的差異?
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
Lance Loeffler - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President
I don't know. I have to go back and look. Nothing rings a bell. I mean, I think nothing has really changed other than the relationship that we've described. I think the extra $100 million is incremental to where we were in the third quarter. But we do have some commercial trade-offs that we've talked a lot about in North America about leaving the export business and the closure around Savannah.
我不知道。我得回去看看。什麼都沒印象。我的意思是,除了我們所描述的這種關係之外,我認為沒有什麼真正改變。我認為這額外的 1 億美元是相對於我們第三季的水平而言的增量。但我們確實有一些商業上的權衡取捨,我們在北美已經討論過很多次,例如退出出口業務和關閉薩凡納週邊地區。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
That might be part of what you're looking at there is that, that $100 million, if we're talking about North America, right, that is netted against the trade-offs with the export business that we have exited. Did we answer your question, Detlef? I want to make sure we got it.
這可能就是你所看到的其中一部分,那就是,如果我們談論的是北美,那麼這 1 億美元,是用來抵消我們退出出口業務所帶來的損失的。德特勒夫,我們回答了你的問題嗎?我想確認我們是否收到了。
Detlef Winckelmann - Analyst
Detlef Winckelmann - Analyst
Yeah, I think so. It was kind of a net zero right in the beginning now to net $100 million. If I really -- correct me if I understand. And if I can ask one more follow-up.
是的,我也這麼認為。一開始幾乎是零收入,現在淨賺了1億美元。如果我真的理解錯了——請糾正我。我可以再問一個後續問題嗎?
I mean, right from the beginning on your Investor Day, you were very helpful in giving an EMEA and North America split all the way to 2027. Now I know partway through the year, you said demand is a bit worse. Pricing came down a bit from your initial expectations. So I think you were talking about maybe Europe coming down a bit from that initial guide of, call it, $1.8 billion to $2 billion. I'm wondering, given the context of your $5 billion guide now, what Europe plays a part of in that, if you can share? Any color would be great.
我的意思是,從你們的投資者日開始,你們就非常熱心地提供了 EMEA 和北美地區的分割方案,一直到 2027 年。我知道到了年中,你說過需求狀況惡化。價格比您最初的預期略有下降。所以我想你指的是歐洲可能會從最初的指導目標(比如說 18 億至 20 億美元)有所下降。鑑於您目前50億美元的投資計劃,我想知道歐洲在其中扮演什麼角色?能否分享一下?任何顏色都可以。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Yeah, we haven't broken out specifically, but generally, you're talking about kind of $3.5 billion in North America and $1.5 billion in Europe.
是的,我們還沒有具體細分,但總的來說,北美地區大約是 35 億美元,歐洲地區大約是 15 億美元。
Operator
Operator
Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.
Matthew McKellar,加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Matthew McKellar - Analyst
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just following up on questions for Charlie and Phil and apologies if I missed it. But is the 2% outperformance versus the North American industry you expect in '26 based solely on those customer wins you've seen so far, mostly in the back half of '25? Or have you assumed further wins and share gains as the year progresses as part of that outperformance assumption? And I guess with that, could there be upside to that number as the year progresses, given improved service quality and customer experience metrics you've highlighted?
早安.謝謝您回答我的問題。我只是想跟進一下之前問查理和菲爾的問題,如果我錯過了什麼,請見諒。但是,您預期在 2026 年相對於北美行業取得 2% 的超額收益,僅僅是基於您目前為止所看到的那些客戶贏得情況嗎?這些客戶大多是在 2025 年下半年贏得的。或者,您是否假設隨著年內業績的推進,公司會取得更多勝利並增加市場份額,以此作為業績優於市場表現的假設的一部分?我想,隨著您強調的服務品質和客戶體驗指標的提高,隨著時間的推移,這個數字是否有可能上升?
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
So those are -- this is a great question. Those are based on what we have line of sight to today, so business that we have won. So we don't need major incremental wins in this year to move the needle. And to be fair, right, what will move a needle in a short period are going to be local wins, right?
所以,這是一個很好的問題。這些都是基於我們目前所能看到的情況,也就是我們已經贏得的業務。所以,我們今年不需要取得重大的漸進式勝利來扭轉局面。公平地說,短期內能產生影響力的肯定是局部地區的勝利,對吧?
The national business tends to be more on a contract cycle. And so we know what we won in 2025 that's now showing up in 2026. That's what we're communicating here. And then you'll have the local piece of business, which is much more day-to-day, much less contractual in there. So if we were to win incremental business throughout the year, obviously, that would be an upside.
全國性業務往往更傾向於合約週期。所以我們知道我們在 2025 年贏得的成果,現在已經在 2026 年顯現出來了。這就是我們在這裡要傳達的訊息。然後還有本地業務,這部分業務更偏向日常運營,合約方面的內容也少得多。因此,如果我們能在全年逐步贏得業務,那顯然是個好消息。
Operator
Operator
I'll now turn the call over to Andy Silvernail for closing comments.
現在我將把電話交給安迪·西爾弗內爾,請他做總結發言。
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Andrew Silvernail - Chief Executive Officer, Director
Well, thank you very much. I appreciate everybody joining us today. This is an important and a very exciting day for International Paper. The decision to split into two public companies to build two powerhouses that we have put together from the legacy pieces of International Paper and the legacy pieces of DS Smith now have two regions that are number one in their regions have an exciting strategy in terms of cost position, how we're working with customers, how we're building our relative share position.
非常感謝。感謝今天所有到場的各位。對國際紙業來說,今天是重要且令人振奮的一天。我們決定將公司拆分為兩家上市公司,從國際紙業和DS Smith的遺留業務中整合出兩個實力雄厚的實體,現在這兩個實體在各自的區域內都處於領先地位。我們在成本定位、與客戶的合作方式以及建立相對市場份額方面都制定了令人興奮的策略。
And ultimately, the financial upside that we see here, all of the hard work that's been put in the focus on 80/20, making really tough choices around assets and reinvesting back into the business aggressively to drive the customer service experience that we're seeing today, winning share, aggressively taking cost out and maximizing return on invested capital. When I look at that, I see two businesses that will stand on their own with great balance sheets with the ability to invest in their future with the ability to make dynamic capital allocation decisions to maximize value for shareholders.
最終,我們看到的財務收益,是所有在 80/20 原則下投入的辛勤努力的成果,是圍繞資產做出艱難抉擇並積極再投資於業務以推動我們今天所看到的客戶服務體驗、贏得市場份額、積極降低成本和最大化投資資本回報的結果。在我看來,這兩家企業都將擁有穩健的資產負債表,能夠獨立發展,並有能力投資未來,做出動態的資本配置決策,從而最大限度地為股東創造價值。
I'm very excited about that future. And I applaud the team for all the incredible work that they've done. I thank our shareholders for your interest in the business and what this can become and I'm incredibly excited about the future. Again, the year has started strong. We've seen a nice pickup in business here, and we're excited for the year to come and in the years to come. So thank you very much. Take care.
我對未來感到非常興奮。我為團隊所做的所有出色工作鼓掌。感謝各位股東對公司及其未來發展的關注,我對公司的未來充滿信心。今年開局依然強勁。我們這裡的業務已經有了不錯的起色,我們對即將到來的一年以及未來幾年都充滿期待。非常感謝。小心。
Operator
Operator
Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Paper's fourth quarter 2026 earnings call. You may now disconnect.
再次感謝您參加國際紙業2026年第四季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。