International Paper Co (IP) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to International Paper's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加國際紙業2025年第三季財報電話會議。（操作說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mandi Gilliland, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Ma'am, the floor is yours.

現在我很高興將電話轉交給投資者關係高級總監曼迪·吉利蘭。女士，請您發言。

Thank you, Christa. Good morning and good afternoon, and thank you for joining International Paper's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. Our speakers this morning are Andy Silvernail, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Lance Loeffler, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，克麗斯塔。早安，下午好，感謝各位參加國際紙業2025年第三季財報電話會議。今天早上的演講嘉賓是董事長兼首席執行官安迪·西爾弗內爾，以及高級副總裁兼首席財務官蘭斯·勒夫勒。

There is important information at the beginning of our presentation, including certain legal disclaimers. For example, during the call, we will make forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These and other factors that could cause or contribute to actual results differing materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in our press releases and reports filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們的簡報開頭包含一些重要訊息，其中包括某些法律免責聲明。例如，在電話會議期間，我們將發表一些存在風險和不確定性的前瞻性聲明。這些以及其他可能導致實際結果與此類前瞻性聲明有重大差異的因素，可以在我們的新聞稿和提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中找到。

We will also present certain non-US GAAP financial information. A reconciliation of those figures to US GAAP financial measures is available on our website.

我們也將提供一些非美國通用會計準則的財務資訊。這些數據與美國通用會計準則財務指標的核對錶可在我們的網站上查閱。

Beginning this quarter, management has elected to present forward-looking guidance based on adjusted EBITDA rather than adjusted EBIT. This change reflects our view that adjusted EBITDA provides a better comparative metric to use during the company's transformation. Our website also contains copies of the third quarter earnings press release and today's presentation slides. I will now turn the call over to Andy Silvernail.

從本季開始，管理階層選擇以調整後的 EBITDA 而非調整後的 EBIT 為基礎，提供前瞻性指引。這項變更反映了我們認為調整後的 EBITDA 是更好的比較指標，適用於公司轉型期間的使用。我們的網站上還包含第三季收益新聞稿和今天簡報的副本。現在我將把電話轉給安迪·西爾弗內爾。

Thanks, Mandy. Good morning, and good afternoon, everyone. Let's begin on slide 3. As we go through today's presentation, there are three key messages I want you to take away. First, we're making significant measurable progress on our transformation.

謝謝你，曼迪。各位早安，各位下午好。讓我們從第3張投影片開始。在今天的演講中，我希望大家記住三個關鍵訊息。首先，我們在轉型方面取得了顯著的、可衡量的進展。

Our strategy is getting traction. Second, macro conditions in North America and EMEA continue to be challenging. Third, we're focused on what we can control. We're moving aggressively on cost initiatives to enable margin expansion and continued investment in our success.

我們的策略正在發揮成效。其次，北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的宏觀經濟環境仍充滿挑戰。第三，我們專注於我們能夠控制的事情。我們正在積極推動成本控制舉措，以實現利潤率的提升，並持續投資於我們的成功。

This quarter represents an important step on our transformational journey as we continue to execute the strategy we launched last year. We committed to an ambitious transformation plan to reinforce our leadership in sustainable packaging solutions through an advantaged cost position and high rel supply position in most -- in our most strategically attractive markets, and delivering an unmatched customer experience. Our strategy is rooted in 80/20, which has four elements: simplify, segment, resource and grow. In that spirit, over the course of this year, we have announced several targeted actions. We are simplifying our organization by exiting select businesses, markets and functions to sharpen our focus and liberate resources.

本季是我們轉型之旅的重要一步，我們將繼續執行去年啟動的策略。我們致力於實施一項雄心勃勃的轉型計劃，透過在大多數最具戰略吸引力的市場中佔據有利的成本地位和高可靠性的供應地位，鞏固我們在永續包裝解決方案領域的領導地位，並提供無與倫比的客戶體驗。我們的策略以 80/20 法則為基礎，法則包含四個要素：簡化、細分、資源配置和成長。本著這種精神，今年我們宣布了幾項針對性的行動。我們正在透過退出部分業務、市場和職能部門來簡化組織結構，以集中精力並釋放資源。

Post the GCF sale and the exit of some specialty businesses and low-margin export we will be exclusively a sustainable packaging business. This is a major milestone in our transformation.

在 GCF 出售以及一些專業業務和低利潤出口業務退出後，我們將成為純粹的永續包裝企業。這是我們轉型過程中的一個重要里程碑。

A key step of segmentation is the rollout of our lighthouse model, which has accelerated across the North American box system and continue to gain traction in our mill system, and we are now kicking this off in EMEA.

細分市場的一個關鍵步驟是推出我們的燈塔模型，該模型已在北美箱式系統中加速推廣，並在我們的工廠系統中持續獲得認可，現在我們正在歐洲、中東和非洲地區啟動這項計劃。

We are directing our resources, namely people and capital, toward our most advantaged opportunities to drive higher reliability and productivity. For example, we made the decision to close Savannah. We redeployed approximately 30 people to Riverdale and avoided a $300 million capital call, which allowed us to fund our Riverdale conversion to lightweight containerboard. These actions contribute to a stronger business for our customers, employees and shareholders, which is reflected in our EBITDA improvement.

我們將把人力和資本等資源投入最有利的機會中，以提高可靠性和生產力。例如，我們決定關閉薩凡納工廠。我們將大約 30 名員工重新部署到 Riverdale，避免了 3 億美元的資金需求，這使我們能夠為 Riverdale 工廠改用輕型箱板紙提供資金。這些舉措有助於增強我們客戶、員工和股東的業務實力，這體現在我們 EBITDA 的改善上。

I'm now moving to slide 4. We are well on our way in our transformation journey and are pulling multiple levers with many moving parts across North America and EMEA. Several will drive immediate benefits, and you'll see those in our numbers now. Others are medium and long-term benefits that come with near-term financial offsets. Facility closures, overhead reduction and refocusing our commercial efforts will have multiple short-term puts and takes.

我現在要轉到第4張投影片。我們的轉型之旅進展順利，正在北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區採取多項措施，涉及許多方面。其中一些措施將帶來即時的效果，您現在就可以從我們的數據中看到這些效果。其他的則是中長期收益，但短期內需要一些財務上的補償。設施關閉、削減開支和重新調整商業策略，將在短期內產生多方面的影響。

During this call, we want to ensure that we describe the key components of our transformation. The main takeaway is that our underlying earnings are growing significantly, and we are confident in our strategy to deliver profitable growth over the long term. It's important to recognize that North America and EMEA are at different stages of the transformation journey and operate in very different markets, which creates unique opportunities and challenges for each business.

在本次通話中，我們希望確保能夠詳細介紹我們轉型過程中的關鍵組成部分。最主要的結論是，我們的基本獲利正在顯著成長，我們對實現長期獲利成長的策略充滿信心。必須認識到，北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區在轉型過程中處於不同的階段，並且在非常不同的市場中運營，這為每個企業創造了獨特的機會和挑戰。

In North America, we're seeing significant benefits of the actions taken to date despite short-term market offsets, giving us conviction that we're on the right path. In EMEA, we are early in the process of optimizing our footprint, reducing overhead costs and reinvesting in strategic priorities. Despite macro headwinds, we are making progress and have a clear path forward to drive improvements.

在北美，儘管短期市場有所抵消，但我們已經看到了迄今為止所採取的行動帶來的顯著益處，這讓我們確信我們走在正確的道路上。在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們正處於優化佈局、降低管理費用和重新投資於策略重點領域的早期階段。儘管面臨宏觀經濟逆風，我們仍在取得進展，並已明確前進方向，以推動改善。

I'm on slide 5. As we consider our journey and how much is left to accomplish, I want to anchor us in the progress we've made to date, utilizing North America as a transformation proof point. This slide shows how we can drive results in a tough market while investing to win. In North America, we have delivered a 40% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-to-date compared to the same period in 2024, while expanding adjusted EBITDA margin to 370 basis points -- by 370 basis points. Our strong performance year-to-date has been the result of several costs and commercial drivers.

我看到第五張投影片了。當我們回顧我們的歷程以及還有多少目標需要實現時，我想讓我們以迄今為止的進展為基準，並將北美作為轉型的一個例證。這張投影片展示了我們如何在艱難的市場環境下透過投資贏得市場，並取得業績。在北美，我們今年迄今的調整後 EBITDA 與 2024 年同期相比成長了 40%，同時調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大了 370 個基點——成長了 370 個基點。今年迄今的強勁業績是多種成本和商業因素共同作用的結果。

In terms of cost improvement, we continued our footprint optimization in North America. We closed additional mills and box plants, sold or exited some of our nonstrategic export and specialty businesses, further simplified our overhead structure and rolled out our 80/20 Lighthouse model to 74 box plants to drive improved operational efficiency and service levels. We launched the Lighthouse implementation in our mill system in the third quarter.

在成本控制方面，我們持續優化在北美的業務佈局。我們關閉了更多工廠和紙箱廠，出售或退出了一些非策略性的出口和特種業務，進一步簡化了管理費用結構，並將我們的 80/20 燈塔模式推廣到 74 家紙箱廠，以提高營運效率和服務水準。我們在第三季開始在工廠系統中實施 Lighthouse 系統。

Commercially, we continue to invest in our best-in-class experience for our customers. This has resulted in key strategic wins across national and local customers as we continue to benefit from strong margin improvement. In North America, we have pulled the levers of change aggressively. The tremendous effort and focus by our team is working. We will continue to build on our progress in North America while leveraging our 80/20 playbook in EMEA.

在商業方面，我們將繼續投資，為客戶提供一流的體驗。這為我們贏得了全國和本地客戶的關鍵策略勝利，我們也持續受益於強勁的利潤率提升。在北美，我們積極推動了改變。我們團隊付出的巨大努力和專注正在發揮作用。我們將繼續鞏固在北美的進展，同時在歐洲、中東和非洲地區運用我們的 80/20 策略。

I'm now moving to slide 6. Let me cover a few quarterly highlights. To begin, our Packaging Solutions businesses grew EBITDA sequentially 28%. These results underscore the progress we're making with our 80/20 implementation. As we move to demand, we came into the year, we anticipated US box industry shipments would be up 1% to 1.5%. However, we now expect industry shipments to be down approximately 1% to 1.5% for the full year due to factors like trade uncertainty, soft consumer sentiment and weak housing market. Similarly, in EMEA, our expectation coming into the year was for box volume to be in the 2% to 3% range. We're now seeing that closer to 1%.

我現在要轉到第6張投影片。讓我來介紹一下本季的一些亮點。首先，我們的包裝解決方案業務的 EBITDA 環比成長了 28%。這些結果凸顯了我們在實施 80/20 原則方面的進展。隨著需求的增加，年初時我們預計美國紙箱產業的出貨量將成長 1% 至 1.5%。然而，由於貿易不確定性、消費者信心疲軟和房地產市場疲軟等因素，我們現在預計全年行業出貨量將下降約 1% 至 1.5%。同樣，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區，我們年初的預期是箱體銷量將成長 2% 至 3%。我們現在看到這個比例接近 1%。

While the markets are challenging, we are controlling our own destiny. We control our customer-centric approach, and that focus is working. In North America, in the month of September marked an important milestone as we took market share and grew box shipments. That trend will continue in the fourth quarter and 2026.

儘管市場充滿挑戰，但我們掌握著自己的命運。我們堅持以客戶為中心的經營理念，而這種理念行之有效。在北美，9 月標誌著一個重要的里程碑，因為我們獲得了市場份額並增加了箱裝貨物的出貨量。這一趨勢將在第四季和2026年繼續保持。

Despite softer-than-expected market conditions, we have continued to build momentum on our transformation journey and are rapidly executing cost out measures that will yield additional benefits in 2026, which I'll talk about in detail later.

儘管市場狀況不如預期，但我們仍在轉型之旅中保持勢頭，並正在迅速執行成本削減措施，這些措施將在 2026 年帶來額外的收益，我稍後會詳細介紹。

In addition to our mill closures and specialty business exits, we still expect to close the sale of GCF by year-end, pending regulatory approval. During the balance of our time today, we'll walk through our more details, more details about our third quarter performance, our outlook for the fourth quarter, momentum into 2026 and updated targets for 2027.

除了關閉工廠和退出特種業務外，我們仍預計在年底前完成 GCF 的出售，但需獲得監管部門的批准。在今天剩餘的時間裡，我們將詳細介紹我們的第三季業績、第四季展望、2026 年的發展動能以及 2027 年的最新目標。

Now moving to slide 7. Looking at our overall company performance, excluding GCF, our third quarter results reflect solid progress and additional proof points along our transformation journey. Third quarter revenue was slightly higher sequentially, driven by continued strong price realization and stable volumes. Importantly, we delivered our expectation of significant sequential EBITDA improvement in the quarter. As a result, our EBITDA improved by 28% and our margin expanded by approximately 300 basis points.

現在轉到第7張投影片。從公司整體業績來看，不包括 GCF，我們第三季的業績反映了我們在轉型過程中取得的穩定進展和更多證據。受強勁的價格實現和穩定的銷售推動，第三季營收環比略有成長。重要的是，我們實現了本季 EBITDA 環比大幅成長的預期。因此，我們的 EBITDA 提高了 28%，利潤率提高了約 300 個基點。

Our adjusted EBIT and EPS results included the accelerated depreciation expense of $675 million related to our facility closures, which impacted EPS by $0.81.

我們調整後的息稅前利潤和每股收益結果包含了與工廠關閉相關的 6.75 億美元的加速折舊費用，這導致每股收益減少了 0.81 美元。

Free cash flow in the quarter increased sequentially to $150 million, primarily driven by strong growth in operating cash flow despite approximately $60 million of direct cash costs related to our transformation. The strength of our balance sheet allows us to invest and position ourselves to drive sustainable, profitable growth. I'm now on slide 8. Sequentially, we saw a significant improvement in EBITDA this quarter of approximately $190 million for IP's continuing operations. For the GCF business included, we achieved more than $1 billion of EBITDA in the quarter, in line with our expectations.

本季自由現金流環比成長至 1.5 億美元，主要得益於經營現金流的強勁成長，儘管與轉型相關的直接現金成本約為 6,000 萬美元。我們雄厚的資產負債表使我們能夠進行投資並佔據有利地位，從而推動可持續的獲利成長。我現在看到第8張投影片了。本季度，IP持續經營業務的EBITDA季增約1.9億美元。包括 GCF 業務在內，我們本季實現了超過 10 億美元的 EBITDA，符合我們的預期。

I'd like to take a moment now to acknowledge the entire GCF team for their contributions and their hard work demonstrated throughout this transition. We wish them continued success as they team up with American Industrial Partners.

我想藉此機會感謝整個 GCF 團隊在此過渡期間所做的貢獻和付出的辛勤努力。我們祝福他們與美國工業夥伴公司合作後繼續取得成功。

Now I'll turn it over to Lance for a few additional details.

現在我將把話題交給蘭斯，讓他補充一些細節。

Thanks, Andy. Still on slide 8, let me touch on a few housekeeping items related to GCF. First, we've recast this year and the prior 2 years of financials to reflect GCF moving to discontinued operations. Second, we've identified approximately $60 million in annual stranded overhead costs, which we have reallocated to the corporate line throughout 2025. A significant portion of these costs will be covered by a transition service agreement following the close.

謝謝你，安迪。仍然在第 8 張投影片上，讓我談談與 GCF 相關的一些注意事項。首先，我們重述了今年和前兩年的財務數據，以反映 GCF 轉為終止經營業務。其次，我們發現每年約有 6,000 萬美元的擱淺間接費用，我們已將其重新分配到 2025 年的公司預算中。這些費用中的很大一部分將由交易完成後簽訂的過渡服務協議承擔。

As the TSA winds down, any residual stranded costs will be eliminated. Third, with the signed transaction, we've written down the GCF business to fair market value and the associated impairment of approximately $1 billion is reflected in the discontinued operations line this quarter. Finally, upon closing, we intend to use the sale of these proceeds of GCF to reinvest in our Packaging Solutions businesses and pay down debt in order to sustain our target credit metrics and maintain a strong investment-grade rating.

隨著美國運輸安全管理局（TSA）的解散，任何剩餘的滯留成本都將消除。第三，隨著交易的簽署，我們已將 GCF 業務減記至公允市場價值，相關的約 10 億美元的減損已反映在本季度的終止經營業務項下。最後，在交易完成後，我們打算將出售 GCF 所得款項用於再投資我們的包裝解決方案業務，並償還債務，以維持我們的目標信用指標並保持強勁的投資級評級。

Turning to slide 9 and our Packaging Solutions North America third quarter results. As a reminder, we are using adjusted EBITDA for our bridges as a better comparative metric during the company's transformation. Looking at the data sequentially. Price and mix in the third quarter was higher by $28 million, primarily due to strong price realization from prior price index movement. Volumes were relatively stable in the third quarter, and operations and costs were $49 million favorable, primarily driven by the non-repeat of second quarter items as we discussed on the last call and the impact of strategic cost-out initiatives.

接下來請看第 9 張投影片，了解我們北美包裝解決方案第三季的業績。再次提醒大家，在公司轉型期間，我們使用調整後的 EBITDA 作為橋樑業務的更佳比較指標。按順序查看資料。第三季價格和產品組合上漲了 2,800 萬美元，主要原因是先前價格指數的強勁上漲帶來了強勁的價格實現。第三季銷售量相對穩定，營運和成本方面節省了 4,900 萬美元，這主要是由於第二季專案不再重複出現（正如我們在上次電話會議上討論的那樣）以及策略性成本削減措施的影響。

Planned maintenance outages resulted in $86 million of lower costs in the third quarter. In order to accelerate our mill footprint actions, we adjusted our outage schedule accordingly. Going forward, we will continue to optimize planned outages to align with demand and balance our network.

計劃內的維護停機使第三季成本降低了 8,600 萬美元。為了加快工廠改造行動，我們也相應地調整了停機檢修計畫。展望未來，我們將繼續優化規劃停機時間，以滿足需求並平衡我們的網路。

Input costs were $27 million unfavorable for the quarter due to higher energy costs, including the incremental costs from the natural gas curtailment that continues at our Valeant mill. All of this leads to an adjusted EBITDA for North America of $655 million. Following the bridges, I'd like to note, our depreciation expense in the third quarter was $831 million, which includes the accelerated depreciation expense of $619 million associated with the closure of our Savannah, Riceboro and Red River Mills.

由於能源成本上漲，本季投入成本不利增加 2,700 萬美元，其中包括 Valeant 工廠持續天然氣減產帶來的額外成本。所有這些因素共同促成了北美地區調整後 EBITDA 為 6.55 億美元。繼橋樑之後，我想指出，我們第三季的折舊費用為 8.31 億美元，其中包括與關閉我們的薩凡納、賴斯伯勒和紅河工廠相關的 6.19 億美元的加速折舊費用。

Turning to slide 10. Let me take a moment to put the trajectory of North American business into perspective. As mentioned on our last call, we finished the second quarter with a gap to industry around negative 4%, but expected to close our gap by the end of this year. Although industry numbers will often publish until tomorrow, we believe that we will be in line or above industry growth rates in the third quarter. Importantly, we exited the third quarter with volumes up 1% year-over-year in September, and we are seeing that trend reinforced in October.

翻到第10張投影片。讓我花點時間來整理一下北美商業的發展軌跡。正如我們在上次電話會議中提到的，我們第二季末與行業平均水平存在約 -4% 的差距，但預計到今年年底將消除這一差距。儘管行業數據通常要到明天才會公佈，但我們相信，第三季我們的成長率將與產業成長率持平或高於產業成長率。重要的是，9 月第三季銷量年增 1%，而且 10 月這一趨勢得到了加強。

This gives us confidence in market share gains in the fourth quarter.

這讓我們對第四季市佔率的成長充滿信心。

As you can see in 2024, our volume trajectory versus the industry was a direct result of strategic actions we took to renegotiate low-margin contracts. While this had a significant impact on our volumes, it allowed us to shed less desirable business and refocus our capacity and commercial efforts on higher value, more profitable businesses. You can see from the benefits of these changes starting to take effect in 2025, where we have closed the gap to market and expect to have above-market performance in the fourth quarter and 2026. The current trajectory is consistent with our expectations and further affirms our strategy is working.

從 2024 年的情況可以看出，我們相對於產業的銷售成長軌跡，是我們採取策略行動重新談判低利潤合約的直接結果。雖然這為我們的銷售帶來了重大影響，但也使我們能夠擺脫不太理想的業務，並將我們的產能和商業努力重新集中到更高價值、更有利可圖的業務上。從 2025 年開始生效的這些變化帶來的好處可以看出，我們已經縮小了與市場的差距，並預計在第四季度和 2026 年將取得高於市場水平的業績。目前的走勢與我們的預期相符，進一步證實了我們的策略是有效的。

Turning to Slide 11. Let me provide some detail on our fourth quarter Packaging Solutions North America outlook. Taking a look at volume, we expect industry demand to remain relatively stable in the fourth quarter. However, our outlook of an $82 million decline includes approximately $60 million of unfavorable commercial impact associated with the exiting of the two strategic -- nonstrategic export and specialty markets businesses. In addition, there are three less shipping days sequentially, which we anticipate will be partially offset by the benefit of strategic customer wins and stronger seasonal volumes.

翻到第11張幻燈片。讓我詳細介紹一下我們第四季北美包裝解決方案業務的展望。從銷售來看，我們預期第四季產業需求將保持相對穩定。然而，我們預計 8,200 萬美元的下降幅度包括約 6,000 萬美元的不利商業影響，這些影響與退出兩個策略性——非策略性出口和特種市場業務有關。此外，出貨天數將連續減少三天，我們預期策略性客戶的成功拓展和季節性銷售量的成長將部分抵銷這一影響。

We expect operations costs -- we expect operations and costs to be favorable by $44 million in the fourth quarter, primarily due to the $60 million of cost-out benefit from mill closures tied to the exit of the nonstrategic export and specialty markets. This benefit is partially offset by seasonally higher labor costs and reliability spend aligned with our planned outages.

我們預計第四季度營運成本將有利 4,400 萬美元，這主要是由於與退出非戰略性出口和特種市場相關的工廠關閉帶來的 6,000 萬美元成本削減收益。這項收益會被季節性較高的勞動成本和與計畫停機相關的可靠性支出部分抵銷。

So just to be clear, the $60 million benefit in ops and costs related to the mill closures in the quarter offsets the $60 million of negative commercial impact in volume.

所以說清楚點，本季工廠關閉帶來的營運和成本方面的 6,000 萬美元收益抵銷了銷售方面的 6,000 萬美元負面商業影響。

The fourth quarter will also include higher maintenance outages sequentially as planned. All in, our fourth quarter outlook for North America is approximately $600 million of EBITDA.

第四季也將按計畫進行，維護停機時間將相應增加。總的來說，我們對北美地區第四季的 EBITDA 預期約為 6 億美元。

Now moving to slide 12. As we look to the balance of 2025 for North America, we expect continued EBITDA improvement building on our strong first half momentum. Let me provide you with more details of our commercial and cost out improvement. This bridge reflects the expected benefits that we are realizing in the second half of 2025. From a commercial perspective, the benefit from the February price increase will continue to ramp throughout the year as we roll out our Lighthouse model more broadly, we expect more wins with strategic customers, both nationally and locally.

現在轉到第12張投影片。展望 2025 年北美剩餘時間，我們預期 EBITDA 將延續上半年強勁的成長勢頭，持續改善。讓我向您詳細介紹一下我們在商業和成本控制方面的改進措施。這座橋樑體現了我們在 2025 年下半年將實現的預期效益。從商業角度來看，隨著我們更廣泛地推廣 Lighthouse 模式，2 月份漲價帶來的好處將在全年持續增加，我們預計在全國和地方層面都能贏得更多戰略客戶的青睞。

On the cost front, the EBITDA improvement throughout 2025 is primarily driven by corporate overhead structural changes and the closure of the Red River mill. These actions taken earlier in the year continue to flow through in the second half and into 2026.

在成本方面，2025 年 EBITDA 的改善主要得益於公司管理費用結構的變更和紅河工廠的關閉。今年稍早採取的這些行動的影響將持續到下半年乃至 2026 年。

This quarter, we also announced the closure of Savannah and Riceboro Mills. As I mentioned on the last slide, the reduction in fixed costs favorable to EBITDA is offset entirely by the commercial margin loss from exiting saturated kraft and low-margin export markets. Both of these mills had significant near-term capital requirements and did not return their cost of capital through the cycle. By taking these strategic actions, this capital will be redeployed for stronger returns within the business.

本季度，我們也宣布關閉薩凡納和賴斯伯勒紡織廠。正如我在上一張投影片中提到的，固定成本的降低雖然有利於 EBITDA，但退出飽和的牛皮紙和低利潤出口市場所造成的商業利潤損失完全抵消了這種影響。這兩家工廠近期都有大量的資金需求，並且沒有透過週期性波動收回資本成本。透過採取這些策略行動，這筆資金將重新部署到企業內部，以獲得更高的回報。

Let me add some context here. In light of the more challenged demand environment, we are accelerating our cost out actions. While these are difficult decisions, they are the right thing for the long-term success of the business. This has been an active quarter, and I want to speak to several decisions. In North America, Lance just walked you through the mill closures announced in August, which ceased operation last month.

我來補充一些背景資料。鑑於當前市場需求環境更具挑戰性，我們正在加快降低成本的步伐。雖然這些決定很艱難，但為了企業的長遠成功，這些決定是正確的。本季工作繁忙，我想談幾個決定。在北美，蘭斯剛剛向大家介紹了 8 月宣布的工廠關閉情況，這些工廠已在上個月停止運作。

Earlier this month, we also agreed to sell our bags business. And just last week, we executed the decision to outsource a large portion of our North American IT service and support functions, a strategic move towards better scalability, cost efficiency and positioning IT in our businesses to deliver operational and customer excellence. We're brapeful to all employees affected by these actions. Thank you for all of your contributions, and we wish you very well in the future.

本月初，我們也同意出售我們的箱包業務。就在上週，我們決定將北美大部分 IT 服務和支援職能外包，這是一項策略性舉措，旨在提高可擴展性、成本效益，並將 IT 定位在我們的業務中，從而實現卓越的營運和客戶體驗。我們對所有受此事件影響的員工表示慰問。感謝您一直以來的貢獻，祝福您未來一切順利。

Now let me hand it back to Lance to walk you through EMEA's third quarter results.

現在讓我把麥克風交還給蘭斯，讓他為大家介紹一下 EMEA 第三季的業績。

Thanks, Andy. So now turning to slide 13 in our Packaging Solutions, EMEA third quarter results. While we continue to see soft demand in EMEA, our business grew EBITDA and expanded margins sequentially. We -- while price and mix contributed $13 million of improvement in the third quarter, this was below our expectations, primarily due to a recent downward price index movement. Volume was also lower than expected in the third quarter, which we believe resulted from overall market softness and destocking in anticipation of paper price declines.

謝謝你，安迪。現在請看我們包裝解決方案 EMEA 第三季業績報告的第 13 頁。儘管 EMEA 地區的需求依然疲軟，但我們的業務 EBITDA 和利潤率卻較上季成長。雖然價格和產品組合在第三季帶來了 1,300 萬美元的改善，但這低於我們的預期，主要是由於近期價格指數的下降趨勢。第三季銷售量也低於預期，我們認為這是由於整體市場疲軟以及預期紙張價格下跌而進行的去庫存造成的。

Operations and costs were unfavorable by $10 million, primarily due to the pricing impact on the value of our inventory. As a result of the paper price decline, we experienced lower fiber costs of $19 million in the third quarter, all of which resulted in third quarter adjusted EBITDA for EMEA of $209 million.

營運和成本方面出現了 1000 萬美元的不利影響，主要原因是價格對我們庫存價值的影響。由於紙張價格下跌，我們第三季的纖維成本降低了 1,900 萬美元，所有這些因素共同導致 EMEA 地區第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.09 億美元。

Turning to slide 14. I'd like to discuss our fourth quarter outlook for Packaging Solutions EMEA. Price and mix are expected to improve by $12 million next quarter, primarily driven by continued box price realization due to the flow-through and timing of prior price index movement.

翻到第14張投影片。我想和大家討論我們第四季對歐洲、中東和非洲地區包裝解決方案的展望。預計下一季價格和產品組合將改善 1,200 萬美元，主要原因是由於先前價格指數變動的傳導和時機，箱裝價格持續實現。

Turning to volume. We expect an increase of $12 million in the fourth quarter based on improved seasonality heading into the holidays and the start of this (inaudible) season in Morocco. In addition, we expect operations and costs to be $24 million unfavorable, primarily due to increased costs related to the seasonally higher volume. Finally, we expect favorable fiber costs to provide a $16 million benefit in the fourth quarter. All in, our fourth quarter EBITDA outlook for EMEA is approximately $230 million.

切換到音量模式。我們預計第四季度收入將增加 1200 萬美元，這得益於假期臨近以及摩洛哥旅遊旺季的開始，季節性因素有所改善。此外，我們預計營運和成本將出現 2,400 萬美元的不利情況，主要原因是季節性銷售增加導致成本上升。最後，我們預計有利的光纖成本將在第四季帶來 1,600 萬美元的收益。總的來說，我們對 EMEA 地區第四季 EBITDA 的預期約為 2.3 億美元。

As I turn to slide 15, and we discussed in North America, we are showing a bridge for EMEA similarly that reflects the 80/20 progress and the anticipated EBITDA benefits we expect to realize in the second half of this year. For our commercial initiatives building towards our '25 EBITDA targets, we previously identified uplift from prior price index moves. Since then, the European market has been challenged by demand softness and there have been several price index decreases offsetting that original gain. Our current view includes known adjustments to the paper price index. As a result of the challenged macro environment in EMEA, we are taking action to accelerate our cost-out initiatives.

正如我在北美討論的那樣，我們在這裡展示一個類似的 EMEA 橋樑，它反映了 80/20 進展以及我們預計在今年下半年實現的預期 EBITDA 收益。為了實現 2025 年 EBITDA 目標，我們先前已確定，價格指數的波動將帶來提振。此後，歐洲市場受到需求疲軟的挑戰，物價指數多次下跌，抵銷了最初的漲幅。我們目前的觀點包括對紙張價格指數的已知調整。由於歐洲、中東和非洲地區的宏觀環境充滿挑戰，我們正在採取行動加快降低成本的措施。

This quarter, we've proposed several closures across East Europe, the Nordics and Italy, which are all subject to consultation. Last quarter, we announced a proposal to delayer and remove the regional overhead structure in Europe as well as consolidate from 13 to 7 subregions. Consultation on this reorganization is progressing with an anticipated financial benefit occurring in 2026.

本季度，我們已提議在東歐、北歐和義大利關閉多家工廠，所有這些提議都需經過諮詢。上個季度，我們宣布了一項提案，旨在減少歐洲的區域管理層級，取消區域管理結構，並將子區域從 13 個合併為 7 個。此次重組的磋商工作正在進行中，預計將於 2026 年產生財務收益。

Finally, we are launching our Lighthouse pilots in Spain and the U.K. similar to the model we rolled out in the US with plans to expand across EMEA next year. I would also note that the input cost and other bar includes the additional month of DS Smith, and favorable energy costs offset by inflation. Obviously, EMEA is not in the position we expected this year.

最後，我們將在西班牙和英國啟動 Lighthouse 試點項目，類似於我們在美國推出的模式，並計劃明年擴展到整個 EMEA 地區。我還要指出，投入成本和其他成本包括 DS Smith 額外一個月的成本，以及通貨膨脹抵銷的有利能源成本。顯然，今年歐洲、中東和非洲地區的情況並沒有達到我們的預期。

While we have significantly improved our strategic positioning and competitive strength, market softness and negative price movements have made the start to the DS Smith acquisition challenging. That said, we have an aggressive road map to improve profitability, invest in our strategic pillars and position the business for long-term success.

雖然我們已大幅改善了策略定位和競爭實力，但市場疲軟和價格下跌使得 DS Smith 的收購開局充滿挑戰。也就是說，我們制定了積極的路線圖來提高獲利能力，投資於我們的策略支柱，並為企業的長期成功奠定基礎。

Now let me turn it back over to Andy.

現在讓我把鏡頭交還給安迪。

Thanks, Lance. I'm on slide 16. As we look ahead to 2026, we'll provide full year guidance on our next call at the end of January. The numbers on this slide show a clear line of sight to the additional benefit of actions we have announced in 2025, which equates to $600 million of incremental adjusted EBITDA in 2026. The majority of the benefits already execute come from cost actions.

謝謝你，蘭斯。我看到第16張投影片了。展望 2026 年，我們將在 1 月底的下次電話會議上提供全年業績指引。此投影片上的數字清晰地顯示了我們在 2025 年宣布的行動所帶來的額外好處，這相當於 2026 年 6 億美元的增量調整後 EBITDA。目前大部分效益都來自於成本控制措施。

We will see the impact from our footprint optimization, distribution, overhead and sourcing initiatives as we realize the full benefit of our 2025 actions with approximately $500 million of cost carryover into 2026. We will also see incremental margin gains from (inaudible) strategic commercial wins in North America and EMEA, partially offset by exiting the nonstrategic businesses related to Savannah and Riceboro closures.

我們將看到我們在佈局優化、分銷、管理費用和採購方面的舉措所帶來的影響，因為我們將在 2025 年全面實現各項行動的效益，大約 5 億美元的成本將結轉到 2026 年。我們也將從北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區的策略性商業勝利中獲得增量利潤，但部分利潤將被退出與薩凡納和賴斯伯勒關閉相關的非策略性業務所抵消。

We have not included in this analysis, additional upside potential for market growth, price and future cost actions including productivity as we drive improvements in our North American mill system. Collectively, the actions we have already executed and actions we will take going forward are foundational to our controlling and shaping our future performance in a dynamic market environment.

本分析並未考慮市場成長、價格和未來成本措施（包括生產力）帶來的額外上漲潛力，因為我們正在推動北美工廠系統的改善。總而言之，我們已經採取的行動和未來將採取的行動，對於我們在動態的市場環境中控制和塑造我們未來的表現至關重要。

I'm on slide 17. As we finalize 2025, I want to share with you our updated transformation targets. There are a few key points. First, our execution is on track. We have taken decisive action in North America, and we are accelerating our execution in EMEA.

我看到第17張投影片了。在最終確定 2025 年目標之際，我想與大家分享我們更新後的轉型目標。有幾個關鍵點。首先，我們的執行工作進展順利。我們在北美採取了果斷行動，並且正在加快在歐洲、中東和非洲地區的執行力度。

Second, market headwinds throughout 2025 will likely persist into 2026. The soft market has cost more than $500 million in profit this year alone. Importantly, the profit opportunity remains. It is simply going to take a year longer to achieve. We expect to capture the full opportunity by 2028.

其次，2025 年的市場逆風可能會持續到 2026 年。疲軟的市場光是今年就已造成超過5億美元的利潤損失。重要的是，盈利機會依然存在。只是要多花一年時間才能實現而已。我們預計到 2028 年將充分把握這項機會。

Third, due to the impact of the market softness, we are adjusting our targets for 2025 and 2027 compared to what we outlined at our Investor Day in March. Again, we'll offer full guidance for 2026 in January.

第三，由於市場疲軟的影響，我們將調整 2025 年和 2027 年的目標，與我們在 3 月投資者日上提出的目標相比有所調整。同樣，我們將在1月提供2026年的完整指導。

With the market softness continuing in North America and EMEA, our revised full year 2025 targets or $24 billion of net sales, adjusted EBITDA of $3 billion and free cash flow of negative $100 million to $300 million. Our long-term ambitions remain. IP has the ability to deliver on the targets we laid out at Investor Day in the medium term. However, the softer market this year and into 2026 has delayed our progress. We can deliver $5 billion in EBITDA in 2027 and continue to accelerate our progress thereafter.

由於北美和歐洲、中東及非洲市場持續疲軟，我們修訂後的 2025 年全年目標為：淨銷售額 240 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 30 億美元，自由現金流為負 1 億美元至 3 億美元。我們的長期目標依然不變。IP 有能力在中期內實現我們在投資者日上提出的目標。然而，今年及2026年疲軟的市場環境延緩了我們的進展。我們可以在 2027 年實現 50 億美元的 EBITDA，並在此後繼續加快發展步伐。

With our improving performance, cash on hand and strong balance sheet, we will continue to invest aggressively in our transformation. I'm excited for the future as we retool International Paper through 80/20 and our strategic pillars. The team is doing yeoman's work across the company. We are committed to delivering our transformation plan.

憑藉著不斷提升的業績、充裕的現金儲備和強勁的資產負債表，我們將繼續大力投資轉型升級。我對未來充滿期待，我們將透過 80/20 策略和我們的戰略支柱對國際紙業進行重組。該團隊在公司各方面都做出了卓越的貢獻。我們致力於落實轉型計劃。

Before we move to Q&A, I'd like to thank our IP team. Our people are working tirelessly to win. Together, we are an important journey to realize our potential as the market leader, employer of choice and value creator for customers and shareholders. Now operator, let's open it up to questions.

在進入問答環節之前，我想感謝我們的智慧財產權團隊。我們的人民正在不懈地努力爭取勝利。攜手並進，我們將踏上一段重要的旅程，實現我們作為市場領導者、首選雇主以及為客戶和股東創造價值的潛力。現在操作員，我們開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Weintraub, Seaport Research Partners.

（操作說明）Mark Weintraub，Seaport Research Partners。

Congrats on progress in a tough environment. Kind of first question for me. I heard Lance's explanation in terms of kind of the opportunities in EMEA. But one thing I'm just trying to really understand is the difference between what you're going to be doing in EMEA versus North America and sort of two points on that. One, so there was a lot of opportunity in North America to take out excess capacity that had developed in the system, and you basically didn't have to walk away from any business.

恭喜你在如此艱難的環境下取得進展。這算是我的第一個問題。我聽了蘭斯關於歐洲、中東和非洲地區機會的解釋。但我真正想了解的是，你在歐洲、中東和非洲地區（EMEA）與北美地區（North America）的工作內容有何不同，關於這一點，我想談兩點。第一，因此在北美有很多機會可以消除系統中產生的過剩產能，你基本上不必放棄任何業務。

So there wasn't a negative commercial impact that, say, is related with Savannah for a lot of the stuff done earlier. Are there those types of opportunities in EMEA? Or is it more the second type, where it's going to be improvement over time, tough decisions being made?

所以，與之前在薩凡納所做的許多事情相比，並沒有產生負面的商業影響。歐洲、中東和非洲地區有這類機會嗎？或者更可能是第二種情況，即隨著時間的推移而改善，需要做出艱難的決定？

And then second, in North America, there also had been commercial decisions made a few years prior that had hurt and essentially, you're able to make changes, and we've seen lots of benefit from that. Are there things like that in EMEA, too? Or is that -- how is the commercial opportunity in EMEA different from North America?

其次，在北美，幾年前也做出了一些商業決策，這些決策造成了損害，但本質上，你可以做出改變，而且我們已經從中看到了許多好處。歐洲、中東和非洲地區也有類似的情況嗎？或者說－歐洲、中東和非洲地區的商業機會與北美地區有何不同？

Those are both great questions, Mark. Thank you. So on the cost front, it is a little bit different, right? We don't have the same kind of magnitude of excess mill capacity or paper capacity that we had in North America. That said, there's more capacity out in the field.

馬克，這兩個問題都很好。謝謝。所以從成本方面來看，情況略有不同，對吧？我們沒有像北美那樣大規模的過剩造紙廠產能或紙張產能。也就是說，現場還有更多產能。

As you think about the box system and underutilization in the box system, we did not have a ton of underutilized capacity in the box system per se. We certainly found it as we have implemented the lighthouses. And so those two things were true in North America. In Europe, we definitely have excess box capacity as we look at the European footprint. And then on the mill side, what we have is we have a pretty considerable amount of our capacity that isn't going into the box business.

當你思考箱式系統和箱式系統中的未充分利用情況時，我們箱式系統本身並沒有大量的未充分利用產能。我們在安裝燈塔後確實發現了這一點。所以，這兩件事在北美都是成立的。從歐洲市場來看，我們的包裝箱產能肯定過剩。而在工廠方面，我們有相當一部分產能並沒有用於紙箱業務。

And so we have to really look at the economics around that and make really good choices.

因此，我們必須認真研究這方面的經濟因素，並做出真正明智的選擇。

One of the things that's different in Europe than in North America is that complexity. So where we found a lot of complexity in North America was at the corporate center, as you kind of define it. So call it the Memphis Corporate Center. And that really then bled into the field that added complexity from a product, from a customer standpoint, policies, procedures, investment, slow investment, those sorts of things. That all still exists very similarly in Europe markets.

歐洲與北美的不同之處在於其複雜性。所以，我們在北美發現的許多複雜之處都集中在企業中心，正如你所定義的。所以就叫它孟菲斯企業中心吧。然後，這確實滲透到了產品、客戶、政策、程序、投資、緩慢投資等領域，增加了複雜性。這種情況在歐洲市場依然非常相似。

The difference is it sits kind of in the above-country structure. There's a very complex above-country structure that we talked about last quarter, Lance talked about again this quarter that we've already announced and we're in consultation to address.

差別在於它位於國家之上的結構。上個季度我們討論過一個非常複雜的上級結構，蘭斯這個季度又談到了這個結構，我們已經宣布過，目前正在進行磋商以解決該結構的問題。

And so what I would say is, on a proportional basis, the cost opportunity is as large or larger, frankly, when you just look at the cost structure. The difference are a little bit in the buckets that we find. Lance's there is something you want to add?

因此，我想說的是，從比例上看，成本機會同樣巨大，甚至更大，坦白說，當你只看成本結構時就會發現這一點。我們發現的桶子裡有一些差別。蘭斯，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

(inaudible)

（聽不清楚）

Okay. Excellent. Mark, does that answer that question for you?

好的。出色的。馬克，這樣回答你的問題了嗎？

Yes. No, that's super helpful. And then just 1 other follow-up in parks I'm getting this asked from some investors wanting me to ask it. So I'm going to ask on their behalf. In the bridging to '27, so I guess we're kind of starting if we need like another $1.4 billion if we have like the $3.6 billion run rate already identified.

是的。不，這太有幫助了。然後，關於公園方面還有另一個後續問題，一些投資人也問了我這個問題，希望我能問。所以我會替他們問一下。在過渡到 2027 年的過程中，所以我想我們算是開始了，如果我們還需要 14 億美元，而我們已經確定了 36 億美元的運行率。

How much of that would be cost takeout commercial? And does commercial have to include some price now that prices have gone down in Europe? Or how to think about that part of the equation?

其中有多少是外送商業成本？既然歐洲物價已經下降，商業價格是否必須包含部分價格？或者說，該如何看待等式中的這一部分？

Yes, absolutely. Mark, first, I realized I didn't answer your second question, so let me get to that. So on the commercial decisions, there are not those same magnitude of commercial decisions that have to be made in Europe, right? So the issue that we had in North America is that we had priced a number of contracts dramatically underneath the market. And as you saw the different pieces, we reversed that, both in terms of the capturing the margin and now winning market share, which I think is very important.

是的，絕對的。馬克，首先，我意識到我還沒有回答你的第二個問題，所以讓我來回答一下。所以，在商業決策方面，這裡需要做出的商業決策的規模沒有歐洲那麼大，對吧？因此，我們在北美遇到的問題是，我們把許多合約的價格定得遠低於市價。正如你所看到的，我們扭轉了局面，無論是在獲取利潤方面，還是在贏得市場份額方面，我認為這非常重要。

In Europe, we have some commercial challenges in Europe, but it's more of actually focusing the resource. We have an awesome set of resource in Europe around the commercial side in terms of customer focus, helping our customers through their value chain and driving innovation. So that's a real skill that we have in Europe, but it's probably too diffused. And we've got to focus it more on those large key customers that we call our (inaudible) customers. So that -- so Mark, I'm sorry, remind me of the question you asked before that?

在歐洲，我們面臨一些商業挑戰，但更多的是如何集中資源。我們在歐洲擁有一批優秀的資源，在商業方面以客戶為中心，幫助客戶完善其價值鏈並推動創新。所以這是我們在歐洲確實擁有的技能，但可能過於分散了。我們必須更加關注那些我們稱為（聽不清楚）客戶的大客戶。所以——所以馬克，不好意思，你提醒我你之前問的那個問題？

of the $1.4 billion.

14億美元中的14億美元。

how much is cost and how much is commercial, yes. So of that, Mark, on a net basis, it's about 50-50. On a gross basis, as you'd imagine, it's more cost because you got inflation, right? So -- and to your point, yes, there is some price baked into that. As we have said all along, we have an expectation that we would get to mid-cycle pricing in North America by 2027.

成本和商業用途分別是多少？所以，馬克，從淨收益來看，大概是五五開吧。正如你所想，從總體上看，由於通貨膨脹，成本更高了，對吧？所以——正如你所說，是的，這其中確實包含了一些成本。正如我們一直以來所說，我們預計到 2027 年，北美地區的定價將達到週期中期水準。

We still believe that to be true. That's probably I'm guessing 1 price rev away, and I would guess, if you would see an improvement in the US market, that's probably likely. We don't have that built into, as you saw in our bridge of 2026. We specifically didn't talk about benefits from market growth, from price or from future actions that we haven't executed yet.

我們仍然相信這是事實。我估計大概還需要一次價格調整，而且我認為，如果美國市場出現改善，這種情況很有可能會發生。正如您在我們2026年的橋樑規劃中看到的那樣，我們並沒有將這一點納入考慮。我們刻意沒有討論市場成長、價格上漲或我們尚未執行的未來行動所帶來的好處。

So we don't have any of that baked into that $3.6 billion that I just outlined.

所以，我剛才提到的 36 億美元並沒有包含這些因素。

To get to the $5 billion, yes, you would expect that, and we would expect a modest rebound in Europe. And you see that being tested constantly, right? You've seen that be tested two or three times this year. It's gone up and retracted a little bit. Look, about the bottom 25% of paper producers in Europe are in a very, very tough position right now, right?

達到 50 億美元的目標，是的，這是意料之中的，我們也預期歐洲經濟將出現小幅反彈。而且你也看到這一點一直在受到考驗，對吧？今年你們已經看到它被測試了兩三次了。它上升了一點，然後又稍微回落了一點。你看，目前歐洲大約 25% 的造紙企業處境非常非常艱難，對吧？

On a cash basis, they're in a very tough position.

從現金流角度來看，他們的處境非常艱難。

I'm not foolish enough to believe that there's going to be some kind of mass decision-making to take out capacity. You see a lot of resilience in terms of holding on by privately held long-term family companies. And so I'm not looking for a miracle there, and we should not. We should be executing as we can. We would expect, however, modest price improvement over that time frame.

我沒那麼傻，不會相信會有什麼大規模的決策來削減產能。我們看到，許多私人的、歷史悠久的家族企業在堅持經營方面展現出了很強的韌性。所以，我並不指望那裡會有奇蹟發生，我們也不該指望。我們應該盡我們所能去執行。不過，我們預計在此期間價格會有小幅改善。

Matthew McKellar, RBC Capital Markets.

Matthew McKellar，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Just to follow-up on really the other side of that North American box shipments comp is positive in September, seemingly again, October is quite positive. You made the comment that you expect above-market performance in Q4 and 2026. Could you maybe refresh us on what kind of volume growth and volume performance versus market you've assumed in getting to the 2027 targets?

補充說明一下，北美箱裝貨物出貨量在 9 月的年比數據為正，而且似乎 10 月的數據也相當不錯。您曾表示預計第四季和 2026 年業績將高於市場平均。能否請您簡單說明一下，為了實現 2027 年的目標，您假設的銷售成長和銷售表現與市場相比是怎樣的？

Yes. So all along, we've assumed a pretty soft market, right? So our assumptions going into this year were plus [1 to 1.5]. In the US, we had more robust assumptions coming in Europe, which were disappointing so far. As we look forward, our expectation would be [1 to 1.5] in North America and [1 to 2] in Europe over time.

是的。所以一直以來，我們都假設市場相當疲軟，對吧？因此，我們今年的假設是：[1 至 1.5]。在美國，我們對歐洲的預期更樂觀，但到目前為止，這些預期令人失望。展望未來，我們預計北美地區未來一段時間將達到 [1 至 1.5]，歐洲地區未來一段時間將達到 [1 至 2]。

As you know, Europe has a stronger secular trend around moving from other materials, plastics as an example, to fiber and a stronger consumer component related to that. So that's why you've seen kind of stronger growth over time in the European market.

如您所知，歐洲在從其他材料（例如塑膠）轉向纖維方面有著更強勁的長期趨勢，與此相關的消費因素也更為強勁。所以這就是為什麼你會看到歐洲市場隨著時間的推移呈現出更強勁的成長勢頭。

We would expect those trends to continue. Very importantly, when we sat and talked about adjusting our 2027 target, and we all recognize that we've gotten some questions already on, hey, why did you do that now? It just was obvious. It was obvious that the $500 million that we've lost this year from the combination of volume and price, unless you expect a major pickup in volume to the tune of the US, you have to claw back a couple of points additionally and the same in Europe, unless you expect that over a 2-year period, those benefits are going to get pushed out. And so we thought it was appropriate to capture that and not kid ourselves or anybody else around that and focus on what we can control.

我們預計這些趨勢將會持續下去。非常重要的一點是，當我們坐下來討論調整 2027 年目標時，我們都意識到已經有人問，嘿，你們為什麼現在這樣做？這顯而易見。很明顯，今年由於銷售和價格的雙重打擊，我們損失了 5 億美元。除非你預期銷售量會像美國一樣大幅回升，否則你必須額外彌補幾個百分點的損失。歐洲的情況也一樣，除非你預期在兩年內這些收益能夠得到彌補，否則這些收益將會被延後。因此，我們認為應該記錄下這一點，不要自欺欺人，也不要欺騙其他人，而是專注於我們能夠控制的事情。

And so our expectation, Matt, is that we're talking in the [1 to 1.5] in North America and the 1% to 2% in Europe.

因此，馬特，我們預計北美地區的增幅在 1% 到 1.5% 之間，歐洲地區增幅在 1% 到 2% 之間。

Very clear. And just as a second question, last for me. Could you maybe just provide a bit of a perspective on the strategic rationale and high-level economics for the Riverdale conversion and what kind of returns you might be targeting with that investment?

非常清楚。最後一個問題，也是我的第二個問題。您能否簡單介紹一下Riverdale改造計畫的策略理由和宏觀經濟效益，以及您希望透過這項投資獲得怎樣的回報？

Yes, you bet, Matt. So on -- relative to Riverdale, importantly, we mentioned it in the script, but the decision on Savannah, as you looked at that, right, we had all the economics that screened about Savannah and why we didn't want to put an incremental $300 million into that, but also the opportunity of Riverdale was really around moving to lightweighting, as you know. And so that's about a $250 million investment plus or minus. And we would expect near 20% returns on that. And so it's a really attractive spin from a business that, for the long -- for a very, very long time, and it definitely was going to be under its cost of capital to a business that has an attractive future and attractive return on capital.

當然，馬特。所以——就《河谷鎮》而言，重要的是，我們在劇本中提到了這一點，但關於《薩凡納》的決定，正如你所看到的，對吧，我們已經對《薩凡納》的經濟效益進行了評估，並解釋了為什麼我們不想再投入 3 億美元，但《河谷鎮》的機會實際上在於轉向輕量化，正如你所知。所以，這筆投資大約是 2.5 億美元，上下浮動。我們預計收益率將接近20%。因此，對於一家長期以來（非常非常長一段時間內）資本成本肯定低於其資本成本的企業來說，這是一個非常有吸引力的轉型，使其轉變為具有良好前景和良好資本回報的企業。

George Staphos, Bank of America.

喬治‧斯塔福斯，美國銀行。

Congratulations on the progress. Andy, I guess first question I had for you, if we look at the change in the guidance for this year, and we appreciate the update, the free cash flow number for us, from our vantage point moved a decent amount. I think it was $100 million to $300 million positive for the year, and it's now a comparable deficit. What were the primary areas in terms of the movement there? Was it just purely the cost at the actions that you took its event, et cetera, that move that?

恭喜你取得進展。安迪，我想問你的第一個問題是，如果我們看一下今年的業績指引變化（我們很感謝這次更新），從我們的角度來看，自由現金流數字有了相當大的變化。我認為當年獲利1億至3億美元，現在卻出現了類似的虧損。就該地區的運動而言，主要集中在哪些領域？只是因為你在事件發生時所採取的行動的成本等等原因才導致了這一轉變嗎？

Or are there other factors there? And then related, I just want a clarification on the answer you were giving to Mark earlier. As we think about the commercial and the cost out targets that you initially had in your in your March guidance and now in the current guidance, have those figures actually changed? Or are they still the same? And then I had 1 follow-on.

或是有其他因素嗎？另外，我還想請您澄清一下之前您給馬克的回答。當我們思考您在 3 月的指導意見以及現在的指導方針中最初提出的商業和成本削減目標時，這些數字是否真的發生了變化？或者它們仍然是一樣的？然後我還有 1 個後續問題。

Yes. Let me do the second first. No, those have not changed. So that's consistent on the second question. On the first question on cash flow, it really -- it's vastly the slowdown in the market, right?

是的。讓我先做第二個。不，那些都沒有改變。所以第二個問題的答案是一致的。關於現金流的第一個問題，這主要是由於市場放緩造成的，對吧？

So that $500 million -- if you look at the $500 million of profit, actually, it's a little more than $500 million of profit that we would have expected to have captured if the market had been at the expectations we talked about at our Investor Day, we would be right on, if not a little bit better on the cash flow from a cash flow perspective. So it really is attached to the market. There are some incremental costs that are higher than we expected because we've been more aggressive in terms of timing of some of the actions, but it's not a giant number. It's not a huge number on a relative basis. It's probably $50 million to $100 million more than we had expected to spend.

所以，這 5 億美元——如果你看一下這 5 億美元的利潤，實際上，如果市場按照我們在投資者日上談到的預期發展，我們本應獲得的利潤會略高於 5 億美元，從現金流的角度來看，我們的現金流不僅不會低於預期，甚至還會略好一些。所以它確實與市場息息相關。由於我們在某些​​行動的時間表上採取了更積極的策略，因此產生了一些比我們預期更高的額外成本，但金額並不大。相對而言，這個數字並不算大。這可能比我們預期的支出多出 5,000 萬到 1 億美元。

And importantly, right, we have a decision to make, and I've made that decision, which is not to back away from the transformation plan, right? We have the balance sheet, we have the proceeds from GCF. We've sold a number of smaller businesses. We have the operating improvements that we have. And I think it would be a fundamental mistake to slow down our transformation by pulling back on CapEx.

更重要的是，我們必須做出決定，而我已經做出了決定，那就是不會放棄轉型計劃，對吧？我們有資產負債表，我們有綠色現金流的收益。我們已經出售了多家小型企業。我們已經進行了這些營運方面的改進。我認為，削減資本支出從而減緩我們的轉型步伐將是一個根本性的錯誤。

I really do believe that. And so as long as we're in the area that we're in, we need to move at full speed. You're seeing exactly what happens when we get this right in North America. It's not linear. It's not perfect.

我真的相信這一點。所以只要我們還在這個區域，我們就需要全速前進。你現在看到的正是我們在北美把這件事做好之後的成果。它並非線性發展。它並不完美。

It's not going to be perfect and it's not going to be linear. But the level of improvement that we can drive in this business, when we get the asset balance correct, and we are investing in the commercial front end of this business, you can see what happens. If you just kind of put North America in perspective, you go back a year ago, we were losing market share. We were getting crushed on volume, and we were seeing declining incremental margins, right? And so therefore, we were cutting capital.

它不會完美，也不會是線性的。但是，當我們把資產平衡調整好，並且投資於這項業務的商業前端時，我們就能推動這項業務取得顯著的進步，你可以看到會發生什麼。如果從整體來看北美市場，回顧一年前，我們的市佔率正在下降。我們當時銷量慘淡，利潤率也持續下降，對吧？因此，我們不得不削減資本。

We were in a spiral that you cannot be in, in a business.

我們陷入了一種在商業中絕對不能陷入的惡性循環。

We have reversed that spiral in 18 months. I mean, it's -- I'm incredibly proud of that team. EBITDA is up 40% year-over-year through the third quarter, 40% year-over-year, and we've gone from losing market share to winning market share. And we will finish this year above our cost of capital in North America. That's a pretty awesome turnaround.

我們在18個月內扭轉了這個惡性循環。我的意思是──我為這支隊伍感到無比自豪。第三季 EBITDA 年成長 40%，市佔率也從下降轉為上升。今年我們在北美的獲利將高於我們的資本成本。這真是個驚人的轉變。

Europe will be harder. I'm not a Polyana, right? There's more hard work to do. It takes longer and it costs more. But the playbook is the same, and we're going to go after it.

歐洲的情況會更糟。我不是波莉安娜主義者，對吧？還有很多艱苦的工作要做。耗時更長，成本更高。但策略是一樣的，我們會繼續執行。

And so we're going to stick to this. So that's critically important.

所以我們將堅持這樣做。所以這一點至關重要。

I appreciate that, Andy. I guess my second question, and it's kind of a two-parter, but they are tied together. You did see -- and congratulations to you, at least in the results in terms of a pickup in box shipments in September, and you're looking for the positive in the fourth quarter, as you mentioned. What's been driving that? Are there any particular end markets where you -- the new IP approach is particularly gaining traction as we're seeing it.

謝謝你，安迪。我的第二個問題，其實可以分成兩個部分，但它們是相互關聯的。您確實看到了——恭喜您，至少從9月份的箱裝貨物出貨量回升來看，正如您所說，您期待第四季度也能取得積極進展。是什麼原因導致了這種情況？我們看到，新的 IP 方法在某些特定的終端市場尤其受到青睞。

And then the related question, bigger picture, if I look at the results you've put up that some of your peers have put up, the narrative is, everyone is -- I shouldn't say everyone, but individually, each of the companies is really trying to produce to market you're seeing your margins do fairly well, 17% or better, but there's a lot of volume being sort of reintroduced back into the market, which means there's another portion of the market that's really not earning a very high margin. Is that a comparatively good place for IP shareholders to be? And/or relative to where you were back in March, a more dangerous place or IP shareholders to be where there's a lot of players out there with a lot of volume and not necessarily a lot of margin?

那麼，從更宏觀的角度來看，如果我看一下你們以及一些同行的業績，就會發現，雖然不應該說“每家公司”，但就具體情況而言，每家公司都在努力生產並推向市場，利潤率也相當不錯，達到 17% 甚至更高，但同時也有大量產品重新進入市場，這意味著還有一部分市場的利潤率並不高。對於智慧財產權股東來說，那裡算是比較好的地方嗎？與三月的情況相比，現在是否是一個更危險的地方，或者對於智慧財產權股東來說，現在是否有很多參與者，交易量很大，但利潤率不一定很高？

There was a lot in that question. So if I don't -- if I miss it, help me out here a little bit.

這個問題包含的資訊量很大。所以如果我沒做到——如果我錯過了，請幫幫我。

We know where to find you.

我們知道在哪裡可以找到你。

Thanks very much. So relative to what's going on in the marketplace. So first of all, we just -- we don't comment on competitors ever. That's just not a good thing to do. And so we won't do that.

非常感謝。所以，這取決於市場目前的狀況。首先，我們從來不對競爭對手發表評論。這樣做很不好。所以，我們不會那樣做。

Everyone's got to make their own choices. Relative to our perspective, in terms of rightsizing ourselves and focusing on the right kind of markets, we think we're getting the balance correct there. And in terms of the things, we're trying to utilize our strengths in the marketplace. And so where we are winning over market is really on select initiatives around very specific customers in those markets that we find attractive.

每個人都必須做出自己的選擇。從我們的角度來看，就調整自身規模和專注於正確的市場而言，我們認為我們在這方面做得恰到好處。至於其他方面，我們正努力在市場上發揮我們的優勢。因此，我們贏得市場的真正途徑是針對我們認為有吸引力的特定市場中的特定客戶群推出精選舉措。

Now as you imagine, we touch pretty much every market, budget our sheer size and scale. We tend to be, I'm going to call it, medium-sized to larger customers that tends to be, but we have lots of great smaller customers all over the world. Our strength in fruits and vegetables and protein has absolutely shown up. And we've gotten very -- we've gotten highly engaged on strategic customers. We're doing -- we're just putting a lot more time, energy and resource into those customers that we believe are critical to our future.

正如您所想，我們幾乎涉足所有市場，預算也取決於我們龐大的規模。我們通常都是中型到大型客戶，但我們在世界各地也有很多很棒的小型客戶。我們在水果、蔬菜和蛋白質方面的優勢已經完全顯現出來。我們已經與策略客戶建立了非常緊密的聯繫。我們正在投入更多的時間、精力和資源給那些我們認為對公司未來至關重要的客戶。

And so I'm not going to go into the specifics around those, but it really is customer centricity. It's about putting resource on the most attractive customers fit our business model.

因此，我不會深入探討這些細節，但它確實是以客戶為中心。關鍵在於將資源投入最符合我們商業模式的優質客戶。

To your second question around what's happening in the overall marketplace and margin, again, I'm going to speak for us and not speak for anybody else. I think what's happened in the industry just collectively is at times people have chased the incremental cash benefits of getting incremental volume, right? So in our world, if you've got excess capacity and you're sitting on fixed cost and you bring in something, we sit in North America, as an example, we sit at a 65% to 70%, what I call material margin. So think of contribution margin, not including direct labor. That means that the next dollar in on our average piece of business comes in at $0.70 or the next $1 out leaves at $0.70 of profit either way.

關於你提出的第二個問題，即整體市場和利潤率的現狀，我再次聲明，我只能代表我們公司發言，不能代表其他任何人發言。我認為整個產業目前普遍存在的問題是，人們有時會為了追求銷售成長而追求額外的現金收益，對吧？所以，在我們這個世界裡，如果你有過剩產能，並且你承擔著固定成本，然後你引進一些東西，例如在北美，我們的利潤率在 65% 到 70% 之間，我稱之為材料利潤率。所以，請考慮貢獻毛利，不包括直接人工。這意味著，在我們平均每筆交易中，下一美元的投入只能帶來 0.70 美元的利潤，或者下一美元的支出也能帶來 0.70 美元的利潤。

And so even if a competitor picks it up at $0.20 off, right, at 20% off and they pick up $0.50, in the very short term, that sugar high feels good. right? And you see that, and you've seen that play out a lot over the years. I've looked at this a lot of kind of how people have played this. And what that does is it stops us and others from actually doing the right thing.

所以，即使競爭對手以 0.20 美元的折扣價購入，對吧？如果打八折，他們只花了 0.50 美元就買到了，那麼在很短的時間內，那種糖分帶來的快感也會讓人感覺很好，對吧？你看到了這一點，而且這些年來你已經看到這種情況反覆發生。我仔細研究過很多人是如何玩這個遊戲的。這樣做會阻止我們和別人真正去做正確的事。

And that means that eventually, that business that you bring in has to be invested in. It's going to require capacity. It's going to require investment at some point. And all of a sudden, that sugar high goes away. And so -- and then that kind of gets passed around.

這意味著最終，你引進的業務必須進行投資。這需要一定的產能。這遲早需要投資。突然間，糖帶來的興奮感就消失了。於是——然後這種消息就這樣傳開了。

What we are doing is we are having the discipline to not do business in that way. What other people do is up to them. But we're going to have our own discipline to go after markets that can earn an attractive return on capital. Importantly, in that, the three pillars of our strategy, they really matter in concert. Number one, have an advantaged cost position.

我們現在所做的，就是用自律的方式避免以這種方式做生意。別人做什麼，那是他們自己的事。但我們將秉持自身的紀律，追逐那些能帶來可觀資本回報的市場。重要的是，我們策略的三大支柱，它們協同作用至關重要。第一，要具備成本優勢。

A huge piece of what we're doing is driving cost out of the system, so we have an advantaged cost. That does not mean that we intend to sell the lowest price. What that means is we have optionality for margin expansion and reinvestment that competitors can't if we have a lower cost position. Second, around the customer experience. We just talked about that we're invested heavily.

我們正在做的工作有很大一部分是降低系統成本，這樣我們才能擁有成本優勢。但這並不意味著我們打算以最低價格出售。這意味著，如果我們擁有更低的成本優勢，我們就擁有競爭對手無法擁有的利潤率擴張和再投資的選擇權。其次，圍繞客戶體驗。我們剛才談到我們投入了大量資金。

We've added 22% more salespeople this year than we had last year. We changed our pay for performance. We've changed our innovation process. All of those things are around really driving that customer experience. That's backed up by major improvements in quality and on-time delivery that our customers are noticing.

今年我們的銷售人員比去年增加了 22%。我們改變了績效工資制度。我們改變了創新流程。所有這些都是為了真正提升客戶體驗。這一點也得到了客戶認可的，他們在產品品質和準時交貨方面都取得了顯著進步。

And then finally, we want to have a relative strength in the markets that matter to us, and we're going to invest in that. So if we do that, that will have discipline. If other competitors decide that they need to get their house in order, that's for them to decide.

最後，我們希望在對我們重要的市場中擁有相對優勢，我們將投資於這些市場。所以如果我們這樣做，就能培養紀律性。如果其他競爭對手決定需要整頓內部事務，那是他們自己的決定。

Mike Roxland, Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland，Truist Securities。

Congrats on the progress in a difficult environment. I want to follow up with you on the closures of Riceboro and Savanna. And can you help us understand the EBITDA benefit associated with those closures. Because when I look at previous closes, like Orange and MedRiver, you guys called out specific either adjusted EBIT or adjusted EBITDA benefits associated with those mills. But I don't think anything was highlighted in your recent SEC filing for those mills.

祝賀你們在如此艱難的環境下取得進展。我想就 Riceboro 和 Savanna 的關閉事宜與您跟進一下。您能否幫助我們了解這些關閉項目帶來的 EBITDA 效益？因為當我查看之前的成交案例，例如 Orange 和 MedRiver，你們都指出了與這些工廠相關的具體調整後 EBIT 或調整後 EBITDA 收益。但我認為你最近向美國證券交易委員會提交的關於這些工廠的文件並沒有重點提及此事。

So that's question one. And question two, just are you now at a point in your US mill system where you can't reallocate tons and need to actually make (inaudible), such as what you're doing at Riverdale? And only what I'm probably to get at is you can't reallocate the tons from Savannah elsewhere in your system then there might be a negative EBITDA impact in 4Q and maybe early 2026. So any color you can provide would be helpful.

這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，你們美國的工廠系統現在是否已經到了無法重新分配噸位，需要實際生產（聽不清楚）的地步，就像你們在Riverdale所做的那樣？我大概想表達的是，如果你不能將薩凡納的噸位重新分配到你係統中的其他地方，那麼第四季度以及2026年初可能會對EBITDA產生負面影響。所以，您提供的任何顏色資訊都將對我們有所幫助。

Yes. Let me do this and then Lance, if you want to add some color to it, please do. Let me talk -- I'm going to split Savannah and Riceboro because they're different. So with Savannah was principally shipping into the export market, and what I would call the low value piece of it, which was effectively an outlet on volume. And when I look at that and you look at it over a cycle, we did a ton of work on this.

是的。讓我來做這件事，然後蘭斯，如果你想給它上色，請隨意。讓我說——我要把薩凡納和賴斯伯勒分開來說，因為它們情況不同。所以薩凡納主要面向出口市場，而我稱之為低價值部分的產品，實際上是依靠數量優勢來銷售的。當我審視這一點，並從整個週期來看，我們在這方面做了大量的工作。

What you see is that at some point in the cycle, you are making positive cash, right? You're actually creating cash. But through the cycle, you are not, right? You are actually -- it is not generating above its cost of capital. So we were destroying value.

你可以看到，在周期中的某個階段，你會獲得正現金流，對嗎？你實際上是在創造現金。但在這個循環中，你並不是，對嗎？實際上，它的收益並沒有超過其資本成本。所以，我們當時是在破壞價值。

And it requires an ever-increasing capital investment to go into the system. And shutting Savanna down and then exiting what I'll call that low-value export market, it's effectively a push, right, on an EBITDA basis. It's effectively a push. But very importantly, right, you're talking about something that on a replacement asset value is north of $1 billion, right, maybe quite a bit north of $1 billion if you had to build that mill from scratch. You would never build that mill from scratch to service that market, right?

而且，該系統需要不斷增加的資本投入。關閉薩凡納工廠，然後退出我稱之為低價值出口市場的領域，從 EBITDA 的角度來看，這實際上是一種打擊，對吧。這實際上是一次推動。但非常重要的一點是，你說的這個資產的重置價值超過 10 億美元，對吧？如果從頭開始建造這座工廠，價值可能遠超 10 億美元。你絕對不會為了服務那個市場而從零開始就建造那座工廠，對吧？

You'd never do that. And so on an ROIC basis, it's a huge win.

你絕不會那樣做。因此，從投資報酬率來看，這是一場巨大的勝利。

However, you do have that sugar high comment that I just mentioned a moment ago, that's part of the thing that you get trapped in, right? You get trapped in that when the export market taught like a little bit like I remember last year, we had a few months where it was really good, it feels great. And then when it comes off, you really hate it. And so -- and you get caught in that trap and then you just say no, we have to look at this from a long-term return on investment, what's the right thing to do for capital employed. And so that trade that I talked about with Riverdale is a really, really important trade.

但是，就像我剛才提到的，糖分攝取過多會導致情緒高漲，這是你會陷入其中的陷阱的一部分，對吧？當出口市場出現一些問題時，你就會陷入這種困境。我記得去年有幾個月出口市場非常好，感覺很棒。然後當它被取下來的時候，你真的會很討厭它。所以——然後你就陷入了那個陷阱，然後你就說不，我們必須從長期投資回報的角度來看這件事，對於投入的資本來說，什麼是正確的做法。所以，我之前提到的與Riverdale的交易，真的是一筆非常重要的交易。

And those are the kind of decisions that we're making throughout the company, right? That's really important here. And I know how many moving parts are in this. And the transformation is, again, they're not clean, but that's the kind of stuff that we're doing to drive this business. Riceboro is different.

而這正是我們公司正在做出的決策類型，對吧？這一點非常重要。我知道這裡面有多少環節需要協調配合。而這種轉變，再次強調，它們並不乾淨，但這正是我們為了推動這項業務而做的事情。賴斯伯勒的情況有所不同。

Riceboro was a mill that simply was never going to have the cost position to compete. And so it made sense to move that volume to other mills, and so that's modestly positive. But to be clear, that's a very small mill.

Riceboro 是一家根本不可能在成本上具備競爭力的工廠。因此，將該部分產量轉移到其他工廠是合理的，這算是一個小小的正面影響。但需要說明的是，那是一家非常小的磨坊。

Got you. And now, Andy, you had now -- it's very helpful. Just -- are you at out a point in your US mill system, though, where you can't reallocate tons? You need to make -- you actually need to make no investment, such as what you're doing in revenue?

抓到你了。安迪，你現在有了——這很有幫助。不過──你們美國的工廠系統是否已經到了無法重新分配噸位的地步？你需要做的——實際上你不需要進行任何投資，例如你現在在收入方面所做的那些？

Yes. I mean in terms of are we going to take more capacity out, not in the near future, that's for sure. The -- if you look at the drive now, you get a few things that are -- we're very focused on in the mill system. Number 1 is, as I talked about last quarter, and I referenced modestly this quarter, we have a lot of costs that are in the system from the lack of investment over 10 years. And we started this last year, and we're going to keep going, and that's why I made the comment on sticking to the strategy.

是的。我的意思是，就我們是否會削減更多產能而言，可以肯定的是，近期內不會。如果你現在看一下驅動裝置，你會發現一些我們在磨機系統中非常關注的東西。第一點，正如我上個季度談到的，並且我在本季度也略有提及的，由於過去 10 年缺乏投資，我們的系統中存在很多成本。我們去年就開始了這項工作，我們將繼續下去，這就是我為什麼說要堅持這項策略的原因。

If we invest aggressively in that mill system, we can capture a huge chunk of that kind of $400-ish million that I think is in that -- that's kind of -- it's waste in the system that when the mills are running well, you can get a huge chunk of that $400 million. You're not going to get all of it. There's always going to be things like the Valiant Gas situation, it stinks and you hate to have it. It's taken way longer to address than we thought it would. Those things are going to happen in these big complex systems.

如果我們大力投資該磨粉系統，就能從中節省約 4 億美元——我認為這部分是系統中的浪費——當磨粉機運作良好時，就能節省這 4 億美元中的很大一部分。你不可能全部得到。總是會有像Valiant Gas事件這樣的事情發生，這很糟糕，你肯定不想遇到這種情況。解決這個問題比我們預想的要花費更長的時間。這些事情在大型複雜系統中是會發生的。

But what you shouldn't have are things that are breakdowns and issues from maintenance that's being deferred.

但你不應該遇到的是因為維護保養被推遲而導致的故障和問題。

And I think our investments, we can go and capture a whole bunch of those, as you know, right, those aren't -- those take time. You have to invest and they take time. But over the next couple of years, we should be able to get the vast majority of that to our bottom line.

我認為我們的投資，我們可以去抓住很多這樣的機會，你知道，對吧，這些機會──這些機會需要時間。你需要投入時間和金錢。但在接下來的幾年裡，我們應該能夠將其中絕大部分轉化為我們的利潤。

The second part that I think is very important is the reinvestment in ongoing productivity. If you look at the last 10 years in our business, and you were looking for any kind of what I'd call net productivity, it hasn't been there. As a matter of fact, it's gone the other way. And we all know the math around that. If you can get -- if you can -- if the market is growing in that 1% to 1.5% range, and you can get modest market share gains over time, that's good.

我認為非常重要的第二點是對持續生產力的再投資。回顧我們公司過去 10 年的發展歷程，如果你想尋找我所謂的淨生產力，你會發現它並不存在。事實上，情況恰恰相反。我們都知道其中的數學原理。如果市場能夠以 1% 到 1.5% 的速度成長，隨著時間的推移，你能獲得適度的市佔率成長，那就很好了。

If you can get that, plus productivity over time, you knock the socks off. And so what we need to do is get that productivity engine moving. And we know how to do that. It's just a matter of -- it is going to take some time. So it's those 2 pieces together.

如果你能做到這一點，再加上長期的生產力提升，那你就能達到驚人的成就。因此，我們需要做的就是讓生產力引擎運轉起來。我們知道該怎麼做。這只是時間問題。所以就是這兩個部分結合在一起。

Got it. And just 1 quick one. Just you've mentioned accelerating cost actions in North America. You sold the bags business. You mentioned just now outsourcing a large portion of your IT support.

知道了。就一個簡短的問題。正如您剛才提到的，北美正在加速採取成本控制措施。你把箱包生意賣掉了。您剛才提到將大部分IT支援工作外包出去。

Can you comment on the EBITDA savings you expect to achieve from those moves? And are there similar types of actions you can potentially take in North America if the market remains challenging as you sort of indicated in 2026?

您能否談談您預期透過這些措施實現的 EBITDA 節省金額？如果像您之前提到的那樣，2026 年北美市場依然充滿挑戰，那麼您是否可以採取類似的措施？

Yes, we've captured those in our -- in the numbers that we laid out. So if you look at the bridge, most of that stuff that we've talked about will be realized. Most of it will be realized in '26, except there will be a tail of some, right? There'll be some tail that will roll to 2027. So all of the different things, the mill closures, the IT, et cetera, those are in that bridge that I put out for the most part.

是的，我們已經把這些都記錄在我們的數據中了——記錄在我們列出的數字裡。所以，如果你看看這座橋，我們討論的大部分內容都將得以實現。大部分將在 2026 年實現，但還會有一些遺留問題，對吧？還有一些尾部會延續到 2027 年。所以所有這些不同的事情，工廠關閉、IT等等，這些大部分都包含在我提出的框架中。

It's probably three quarters or more that are in that bridge. And so you'll get a little -- you get 20%, 25% that will roll over into 2027 somewhere in that neighborhood.

橋上可能至少有四分之三的人。因此，你會得到一些——大概 20% 到 25% 的收益，這些收益會延續到 2027 年左右。

In terms of future actions, we still have a long way to go, right? We know that. But in terms of kind of the big structural stuff in North America, we've gotten after an awful lot of it. And now we have to drive those things to resolution. We've got to go after the cost structure in the mill system.

就未來的行動而言，我們還有很長的路要走，對吧？我們知道這一點。但就北美的大型結構性問題而言，我們已經取得了巨大進展。現在我們必須推動這些問題來解決。我們必須著手解決工廠系統的成本結構問題。

There's still more overhead to address. And then obviously, we're just starting the journey in Europe.

還有一些其他問題需要解決。顯然，我們才剛開始在歐洲的旅程。

Anthony Pettinari, Citigroup.

安東尼佩蒂納裡，花旗集團。

Just following up on Mike's question, with Savanna and Riceboro closed and let's assume Riverdale comes up, what percentage of IP containerboard production in North America will go to an IP box plant? What's your integration rate going to be? And then what percentage would be exported offshore, understand that is going to bounce around a little bit, but just on a normalized basis, like can you give us any sense there?

我接著 Mike 的問題問一下，如果 Savanna 和 Riceboro 工廠關閉，假設 Riverdale 工廠可以開工，那麼北美 IP 箱板紙產量的百分之多少會流向 IP 紙箱廠？你們的整合率是多少？那麼出口到海外的比例是多少呢？我知道這個數字會有波動，但就正常化而言，你能給我們一個大致的估計嗎？

Yes. It's about 90% that will be consumed in our box system, plus or minus. We have partners in the box world in North America, and we'll still be -- we still have some export that goes out. And the export that we have, we like that business. It's highly strategic.

是的。大約 90% 的產品會在我們的包裝系統中被消耗掉，上下會有一定誤差。我們在北美的包裝盒產業有合作夥伴，而且我們仍然會有一些出口產品。我們很喜歡我們現有的出口業務。這是極具戰略意義的。

It's profitable. It earns its cost of capital and above. And it's an attractive piece of business. And obviously, our partners. They've been long-term partners, they're great partners, and they're going to continue to be.

它有利可圖。它的收益不僅達到或超過其資本成本。這是一筆很吸引人的生意。當然，還有我們的合作夥伴。他們一直是長期合作夥伴，他們是優秀的合作夥伴，而且他們將繼續保持這種合作關係。

and then the export piece is, it's like 6%, 7%, somewhere in there.

出口部分大概佔 6%、7% 左右。

Okay. Okay. No, that's very helpful. And then I guess, just looking at the mill system exiting the year, are operating rates where you want them to be? Or are they still maybe a little bit loose because the demand is weak?

好的。好的。不，這很有幫助。那麼，從工廠系統年底的情況來看，其運作率是否達到了預期目標？或者，由於需求疲軟，他們的定價可能仍然有些寬鬆？

Or are you going to be running tight until Riverdale comes online? And then just given the kind of volatility in demand and weakness in demand, how should we think about the sort of timing of Riverdale? Is that something that could get flexed sooner, later, or just any thoughts there?

還是說你打算等到Riverdale上線後再收拾殘局？鑑於需求的波動性和疲軟性，我們該如何看待《河谷鎮》的上映時機？這件事有可能很快、遲早會解決嗎？或者大家有什麼想法？

Yes. We're okay in terms of our capacity utilization. So if you look at operating rates, we're okay there. We are going to make sure that from a paper strategy perspective, if we get a bump up in activity, we're being very mindful this has been a soft market. If the market bounces back and you get a quick pop back, our paper strategy, we want to be smart about that, absolutely, as we drive productivity into the system.

是的。我們的產能利用率還可以。所以從營運率來看，我們這方面沒問題。從紙面策略的角度來看，我們將確保，如果市場活動有所回升，我們將非常清楚，目前的市場一直比較疲軟。如果市場反彈，股價迅速回升，我們的紙幣策略，我們當然希望對此保持謹慎，因為我們正在提高系統的生產力。

And look, if we're driving productivity into the system, what that does then that allows us to capture that 1%, 1.5% growth without adding fixed costs. And that's where that magic is that's really, really important.

你看，如果我們提高系統的生產力，那麼我們就可以在不增加固定成本的情況下獲得 1% 或 1.5% 的成長。而這正是真正重要的魔力所在。

And so I'm not worried about that. We -- the plan here on Riverdale is late next year is where that's really going to start being up and going. And we think that, that's good timing and certainly positioned well relative to a growing segment of the marketplace.

所以我並不擔心。我們—Riverdale 的計劃是在明年年底真正開始啟動和實施。我們認為，這是一個恰當的時機，而且相對於不斷成長的市場區隔而言，這是一個非常有利的定位。

Phil Ng, Jefferies.

Phil Ng，傑富瑞集團。

Europe is clearly more challenging than expected coming in the year. I think you and your peer have both talked about perhaps 50% to 75% of the non-integrated tons in Europe are operating at uneconomic levels, maybe not even cash flow positive. I believe your Europe business is about 40% to 50% of the paper you make you're selling into the open market or you trade tons. So can you kind of let us know if that business, one, is cash flow positive or EBITDA positive at current levels? Is that a business you want to be in, ikn the medium term?

今年歐洲情勢顯然比預期更具挑戰性。我認為你和你的同行都討論過，歐洲非一體化噸位中可能有 50% 到 75% 的噸位都在以不經濟的水平運營，甚至可能沒有正現金流。我相信，你們在歐洲的業務大約有 40% 到 50% 的紙張是生產出來後銷往公開市場或進行交易的。那麼，您能否告知我們該業務目前的現金流量是否為正，或 EBITDA 是否為正？從中長期來看，這是你想從事的行業嗎？

And is there a good way to think about your on integrated and integrated business in Europe, is there like a massive spread in terms of margins?

那麼，對於您在歐洲的一體化和綜合性業務，是否有一個好的思考方式？利潤率方面是否存在巨大的差異？

Yes. Good question. So specific to the noninternally consumed product, we're evaluating that whole thing. We're going through that right now. And frankly, it's not even necessarily tied to the economics of it just tied to the economics of it because it's really around the strategy, how it fits with our business.

是的。問得好。因此，具體到非內部消費的產品，我們正在評估整個情況。我們現在就正在經歷這件事。坦白說，這甚至不一定與經濟效益直接相關，因為這實際上是圍繞著策略的，即它如何契合我們的業務。

In terms -- I mean, if you look at it right now, Europe in total is, from a cash flow basis, right, is using cash and because of the restructuring that we're going to entail on it. So we do have to restructure that, so we're going to do that. I do believe, however -- I know, however, that we have pockets of our business, both in the mill system and in our box system that are losing money on a cash basis. There's no doubt about that. And so as we go through that, that has to be rectified and through commercial and/or cost actions to get to an attractive return on capital.

就目前而言——我的意思是，如果你從現金流的角度來看，整個歐洲都在使用現金，這是因為我們將要進行的重組。所以我們必須進行重組，我們會這麼做的。不過，我確實相信——我知道，無論是在工廠系統還是在包裝系統中，我們的一些業務都在現金方面虧損。這點毋庸置疑。因此，在經歷這個過程時，必須糾正這種情況，並透過商業和/或成本控制措施來實現有吸引力的資本回報。

And so in terms of the split, we haven't talked about that. We haven't gone into that level of detail, and I don't think it's good to do that. I don't think competitively it's good to share that kind of information. And so -- but we know where the pockets of profit and loss are. We know we have a road map that we're working on.

所以，關於分裂的問題，我們還沒有討論過。我們還沒有深入到那個程度，我認為那樣做並不好。我認為從競爭角度來看，分享這類資訊並不好。所以——但我們知道利潤和虧損的來源在哪裡。我們知道我們正在製定路線圖並付諸實施。

Obviously, anything and everything we do in Europe has to have the discipline around the consultation process, and we need to follow that appropriately. And so we'll do that in all of our public comments and all of our private engagements.

顯然，我們在歐洲所做的任何事情都必須遵循協商程序，我們需要適當地遵守這項程序。因此，我們將在所有公開評論和所有私下交流中都這樣做。

That's helpful. And then pricing Europe is a little newer for all of us. Lance, you mentioned on the prepared remarks that you're going through a work consume process in Eastern Europe, Nordic and Italy. Can you give a little more perspective what's out there in terms of potential closures? Are those box plants that mills?

那很有幫助。而且，歐洲的定價機制對我們所有人來說都比較陌生。蘭斯，你在準備好的演講稿中提到，你正在東歐、北歐和義大利進行工作考察。您能否更詳細地介紹一下目前可能出現的關閉情況？那些是工廠嗎？

Just kind of help us size how quickly could you see that? And perhaps, Andy, as you kind of accelerate this restructuring in Europe, how quickly you're going to move in? And could we see some uplift perhaps in 2026? Or is this more of a 2017 event where you see the big inflection in terms of cost out savings?

請您大概估算一下，多久看得出來？安迪，或許隨著你在歐洲加速重組，你會以多快的速度介入呢？我們或許能在 2026 年看到一些好轉？或者說，這更像是 2017 年發生的事件，在那一年成本節約方面出現了重大轉捩點？

Yes. So Phil, we have to dance carefully on this topic, right? And the reason I say that is there is a highly defined process in Europe around consultation. And so what that means is we're working hand in hand with the works councils and with the regulators to go through that process in a very detailed way. And I appreciate the fact that we all want to put a number out there and put a date out there and talk about what's going to happen.

是的。所以菲爾，我們在這個問題上必須謹慎行事，對吧？我之所以這麼說，是因為歐洲在協商上有一套非常明確的流程。這意味著我們將與職工委員會和監管機構攜手合作，以非常細緻的方式完成這項程序。我很感激我們都想公佈一個數字、一個日期，並討論接下來會發生什麼。

That is different than the US. And so what I'll say, and then, Lance, you can add any color that you want is we are going to move aggressively toward rightsizing Europe. We have to, right? As does everybody else, given the market conditions. Everyone's going to make their own choices around that, but the marketplace is going to have to decide what they're going to do.

這與美國的情況不同。所以我要說的是，蘭斯，你可以隨意補充任何你想表達的意思，那就是我們將積極推進歐洲的規模調整。我們必須這麼做，對吧？鑑於目前的市場狀況，其他人也一樣。每個人都會做出自己的選擇，但市場最終會決定他們要怎麼做。

We are going to be aggressive about getting ourselves in the right economic position. That being said, it has to be in conjunction with the regulations and the laws and the practices in Europe.

我們將積極主動地使自己處於正確的經濟地位。也就是說，它必須符合歐洲的法規、法律和慣例。

Yes. I don't have anything to add. I think you covered it in terms of being aggressive about the actions that we take under the appropriate circumstances without getting wrapped around the axle. That's probably as much as we can say.

是的。我沒什麼要補充的。我認為你已經涵蓋了在適當情況下積極採取行動，但又不會陷入僵局的方面。我們大概只能說這麼多了。

Yes. But just expect it, Phil, we're going to move, right? The stuff that we have, we have talked about already. That's in consultation. We're going to go through that process the right way.

是的。菲爾，你做好心理準備，我們要搬家了，對吧？我們已經討論過那些東西了。那還在協商中。我們將按正確的方式完成這個過程。

But we know the magnitude of what we have to address.

但我們知道我們必須解決的問題有多棘手。

Okay. And sorry, I just sneak 1 more in, something perhaps you could talk about a little more freely. Good to see progress on box and you're calling up 1%. That certainly appears to be outpacing the market. Given the line of sight and perhaps on the wins you already have in North America on the box side, is there a good way to think about relative outperformance that we could hope to expect in North America for you guys next year and some of the wins that you've had in terms of what type of customer mix of business?

好的。抱歉，我再偷偷加一個問題，也許你可以更自由地談論這個問題。很高興看到盒子方面取得了進展，你們已經籌集了 1% 的資金。這顯然已經超過了市場平均。考慮到你們在北美市場已經取得的成功，以及你們在包裝盒業務方面取得的成就，有沒有什麼好方法來思考明年你們在北美市場的相對超額收益，以及你們在客戶組合方面取得的一些成功？

Yes. So based on what we're looking at right now with known wins and losses, we think that number is kind of 2%. So you pick your market number. but we think we can outpace the market by a couple of points in 2026 in North America.

是的。所以根據我們目前已知的勝負情況來看，我們認為這個數字大概是 2%。所以你可以自行設定市場預期。但我們認為，到2026年，我們在北美地區的業績可以比市場平均高出幾個百分點。

I will now turn the call over to Andy Silvernail for closing comments.

現在我將把電話交給安迪·西爾弗內爾，請他做總結發言。

Well, thank you very much. Thank you, everybody, for being with us on this transformation journey. The work and the focus on 80/20 and on the three pillars of our strategy are critically important, and we're working it, and we're working it hard. I'm delighted to see the progress in North America and what that team is doing. Obviously, the North American team is facing headwinds that we didn't expect, but we're being aggressive with the realities of that.

非常感謝。感謝大家陪伴我們走過這段變革之旅。80/20 法則和我們策略的三大支柱的工作和重點至關重要，我們正在努力工作，而且非常努力。我很高興看到北美取得的進展以及該團隊所做的工作。顯然，北美隊正面臨著我們意想不到的逆境，但我們正在積極應對這些現實。

And so we're getting after it. In Europe, it's been a tough market. No doubt about it, right? If we look at the -- both in terms of volume and price, it's been meaningfully more difficult than we had expected. But the same thing holds true.

所以我們正在全力以赴。歐洲市場一直很艱難。毫無疑問，對吧？如果我們從數量和價格兩個方面來看，就會發現這比我們預期的要困難得多。但同樣的道理也適用於其他人。

We are moving forward with the same playbook, with the same level of aggressiveness that we have in North America, and we understand the challenge, and we understand the need to get that business in the right place. So I want to thank you for your support. I want to thank you for your attention. And very importantly, I want to thank the IP team for the incredible work that they're doing in North America and in EMEA. So thank you very much, everybody.

我們將沿用在北美同樣的策略和力度，我們了解其中的挑戰，也明白將業務發展到正確階段的必要性。所以，我要感謝你們的支持。謝謝大家的關注。非常重要的一點是，我要感謝智慧財產權團隊在北美和歐洲、中東及非洲地區所做的出色工作。非常感謝大家。

Once again, we'd like to thank you for participating in International Paper's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. You may now disconnect.

再次感謝您參加國際紙業2025年第三季財報電話會議。您現在可以斷開連線了。