直覺電腦 (INTU) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon. My name is James, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's First Quarter Fiscal Year 2018 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jerry Natoli, Intuit's Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Mr. Natoli?

    午安.我叫詹姆斯,我將擔任本次會議的主持人。在此,我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2018 財年第一季電話會議。(操作員指示)接下來,我將把電話交給 Intuit 的財務副總裁兼財務主管 Jerry Natoli。納托利先生?

  • Jerome E. Natoli - VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer

    Jerome E. Natoli - VP of Corporate Finance and Treasurer

  • Thanks, James, and thanks to you all for joining us. James, we couldn't quite hear you. So hopefully, the line is open. If it's not, please work the communications line, and let us know.

    謝謝詹姆斯,也謝謝各位的參與。詹姆斯,我們沒聽清楚你說話。希望電話線已經開通。如果不是,請透過通訊線路聯絡我們,告知情況。

  • Good afternoon, and welcome to Intuit's First Quarter Fiscal 2018 Conference Call. I'm here with Brad Smith, our Chairman and CEO; Neil Williams, our CFO; and Michelle Clatterbuck, our incoming CFO.

    下午好,歡迎參加 Intuit 2018 財年第一季電話會議。我今天和我們的董事長兼執行長布拉德史密斯、財務長尼爾威廉斯以及即將上任的財務長米歇爾克拉特巴克在一起。

  • Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for fiscal 2017 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement. Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We have reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致 Intuit 的表現與我們的預期有重大差異。您可以查看我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2017 財年的 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件,以了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。所有這些文件都可以在 Intuit 網站 (intuit.com) 的投資者關係頁面上找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。這些發言中的一些數字是按非GAAP準則列示的。我們在今天的新聞稿中對可比較的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明,否則所有成長率均指目前期間與去年同期相比的成長率,業務指標及相關成長率均指全球業務指標。本次電話會議結束後,我們將在網站上提供我們準備好的演講稿和補充財務資訊。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

    這樣,我就把電話交給布萊德了。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • All right. Thanks, Jerry. And thanks to all of you for joining us. We're off to a strong start in fiscal year 2018. In the first quarter, we grew revenue 14% and exceeded our overall financial targets. Small Business & Self-Employed Group revenue grew 17%, with QuickBooks Online subscribers growing 56% and the online ecosystem revenue growing 35%. Both the consumer group and the Strategic Partner group revenues were also in line with our expectations.

    好的。謝謝你,傑瑞。感謝各位的參與。2018財年開局強勁。第一季度,我們的營收成長了 14%,並超額完成了整體財務目標。小型企業和自僱人士集團的收入成長了 17%,其中 QuickBooks Online 訂閱用戶成長了 56%,線上生態系統收入成長了 35%。消費者集團和策略夥伴集團的收入均符合我們的預期。

  • With that backdrop, let me share some observations on our business overall, starting with the Small Business & Self-Employed Group. QuickBooks Online subscriber growth continues at a rapid pace, with online ecosystem revenue accelerating. We exited the quarter with over 2.5 million QuickBooks Online subscribers, surpassing the 2 million subscriber milestone during the quarter in the United States, while our non-U. S. base grew 70% year-over-year to approximately 550,000 subscribers.

    在此背景下,我想分享一些關於我們整體業務的觀察,首先從小型企業和個體經營者群體開始。QuickBooks Online 用戶數量持續快速成長,線上生態系統收入也在加速成長。本季末,我們的 QuickBooks Online 訂閱用戶超過 250 萬,在美國的訂閱用戶在本季突破了 200 萬大關,而我們在美國以外的訂閱用戶也突破了 200 萬大關。S.用戶基數較去年同期成長70%,達到約55萬用戶。

  • Within QuickBooks Online, self-employed subscribers grew to roughly 425,000, up from 390,000 last quarter and 110,000 just 1 year ago. The strong growth in QBO customers and online ecosystem revenue reflects our focus on improving the customer experience and delivering what matters most in their lives when choosing our products. That is more money, no work and complete confidence. Our teams are laser-focused on delivering these customer benefits, and they've produced a steady flow of new features and capabilities, many of which were showcased at our QuickBooks Connect Conference last week.

    QuickBooks Online 的自營用戶數量成長至約 42.5 萬人,高於上一季的 39 萬人和一年前的 11 萬人。QBO 客戶和線上生態系統收入的強勁成長反映了我們致力於改善客戶體驗,並在客戶選擇我們的產品時,提供他們生活中最重要的東西。這意味著更多的收入、無需付出努力以及完全的自信。我們的團隊全神貫注於為客戶帶來這些好處,並不斷推出新功能和特性,其中許多功能和特性在上週的 QuickBooks Connect 大會上進行了展示。

  • Our QBO innovations are resonating with customers, with our most recent Net Promoter Scores once again improving, this time by more than 6 points on top of the 22 point improvement we drove last year. These improvements are reflected in each geography around the globe, positioning us well versus local alternatives and giving us confidence in continuing our expected QBO subscriber growth north of 40% with online ecosystem revenue growth of more than 30%.

    我們的 QBO 創新引起了客戶的共鳴,我們最新的淨推薦值再次提高,這次在去年提高 22 分的基礎上又提高了 6 分以上。這些改進體現在全球各地,使我們相對於當地競爭對手處於有利地位,並使我們有信心繼續實現預期的 QBO 用戶增長超過 40%,在線生態系統收入增長超過 30%。

  • Turning to the consumer group. First quarter revenue finished in line with our expectations, up 7% year-over-year. We're gearing up for the upcoming tax season and remain laser-focused on delivering an outstanding end-to-end customer experience for do-it-yourself taxpayers. We're also launching our new TurboTax Live offering, leveraging technology for those seeking access to a tax expert on demand. Our experience with October tax extension filers gave us an opportunity to run some water through the pipes, and we are encouraged by the results as we head into the season.

    轉向消費者團體。第一季營收符合預期,年增 7%。我們正在為即將到來的報稅季做準備,並將繼續全力以赴,為自助報稅者提供卓越的端到端客戶體驗。我們同時推出了全新的 TurboTax Live 服務,利用科技手段,為希望隨時獲得稅務專家協助的人士提供服務。10 月的稅務延期申報經驗讓我們有機會進行一些調整,我們對結果感到鼓舞,並期待接下來的工作季。

  • As we discussed last quarter, our consumer group now includes Mint and personal financial management. We unveiled our new Turbo platform at the Money 2020 conference in mid-October. Turbo is the first step towards expanding beyond a tax offering to a consumer platform. This platform will improve the overall financial health of the end user. Turbo goes beyond a credit score and unleashes the power of verified IRS-filed income, the credit score and a debt-to-income ratio to show customers who give consent where they truly stand.

    正如我們上個季度所討論的,我們的消費者集團現在包括 Mint 和個人財務管理。我們在 10 月中旬的 Money 2020 大會上推出了全新的 Turbo 平台。Turbo 是邁向從稅務服務平台轉型為消費者平台的第一步。該平台將改善終端用戶的整體財務狀況。Turbo 不僅限於信用評分,它還利用經核實的 IRS 申報收入、信用評分和債務收入比,向同意使用此功能的客戶展示他們的真實財務狀況。

  • We announced an exciting slate of initial partners who will use the platform to provide offerings for participating customers starting early in calendar 2018.

    我們宣布了一批令人興奮的首批合作夥伴,他們將利用該平台從 2018 年初開始為參與的客戶提供產品和服務。

  • Moving on to the Strategic Partners Group. Our Professional Tax revenue was also in line with our expectations for the quarter. We continue to focus on multiservice accounting firms that do both books and taxes. This is in service to driving our accountants' success while growing our small business ecosystem.

    接下來是策略夥伴集團。我們的專業稅收入也符合本季的預期。我們繼續專注於提供簿記和稅務等多項服務的會計事務所。這樣做是為了幫助會計師成功,同時發展我們的小型企業生態系統。

  • Putting a bow around the quarter, we're off to a strong start to fiscal 2018, and we are excited about our prospects for the year.

    為本季畫下圓滿的句號,我們2018財年開局強勁,對今年的前景充滿信心。

  • With that overview, let me hand it over to Neil to walk you through the financial detail.

    有了以上概述,接下來就交給尼爾為大家詳細介紹財務細節。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thanks, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. For the first quarter of fiscal 2018, we delivered revenue of $886 million, up 14% year-over-year; a GAAP operating loss of $57 million versus $61 million a year ago; non-GAAP operating income of $43 million versus $32 million last year; GAAP loss per share of $0.07 versus $0.12 last year; and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.11, up from $0.06 last year.

    謝謝你,布拉德,大家下午好。2018 財年第一季,我們實現營收 8.86 億美元,年增 14%;GAAP 營業虧損 5,700 萬美元,而去年同期為 6,100 萬美元;非 GAAP 營業收入 4,300 萬美元,而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元;非 GAAP 營業收入 4,300 萬美元,而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元;非 GAAP 營業收入 4,300 萬美元,而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元;非 GAAP 營業收入 4,300 百萬美元,而去年同期為 3,200 萬美元; 0.11 美元,高於去年同期的 0.06 美元。

  • Turning to the business segments. Total Small Business & Self-Employed revenue grew 17% in the quarter, up from 14% in fiscal 2017. QuickBooks Online subscriber growth remained strong at 56%, ending the quarter with 2.552 million subscribers.

    接下來我們來看業務區。本季小型企業和自僱人士的總收入成長了 17%,高於 2017 財年的 14%。QuickBooks Online 用戶成長依然強勁,達到 56%,本季末用戶總數達到 255.2 萬。

  • Small Business online ecosystem revenue accelerated to 35% in the first quarter from 30% in fiscal 2017. Online accounting continues to drive this revenue growth. We expect year-over-year QBO subscriber growth to slow in the second half of the year due to the introduction of the self-employed bundle last tax season. We remain confident in our outlook for growth in QBO subs, as reflected in our fiscal 2018 guidance of 3.275 million to 3.375 million subscribers. We also continue to expect online ecosystem revenue to grow better than 30%.

    小型企業線上生態系統營收在第一季加速成長至 35%,而 2017 財年為 30%。線上會計服務持續推動收入成長。我們預計,由於上個報稅季推出了自僱人士套餐,QBO 用戶同比增長率在今年下半年將會放緩。我們對QBO用戶成長前景依然充滿信心,正如我們在2018財年預測中所說的,用戶數為327.5萬至337.5萬。我們也繼續預期線上生態系統收入將成長超過 30%。

  • Desktop ecosystem revenue grew 8% in the quarter, driven by QuickBooks Enterprise strength. QuickBooks Desktop units fell 35%. Remember that operating system changes in the year ago period led customers to upgrade to the newest desktop version, which drove strong unit growth last year. For fiscal 2018, we expect QuickBooks Desktop units to decline mid-teens and desktop ecosystem revenue to be in -- to be up mid-single-digits.

    受 QuickBooks Enterprise 的強勁表​​現推動,桌面生態系統營收在本季成長了 8%。QuickBooks Desktop 的銷售量下降了 35%。請記住,去年同期的作業系統變化促使客戶升級到最新的桌面版本,從而推動了去年的強勁銷售成長。2018 財年,我們預計 QuickBooks Desktop 的銷售量將下降 15% 左右,而桌面生態系統的營收將成長 25% 左右。

  • Total consumer revenue was up 7% for the quarter while Professional Tax revenue within the Strategic Partner Group grew 2%. Looking ahead, I'm excited about the opportunity TurboTax Live provides to address the needs of more tax filers. We typically see 3 million prior year TurboTax customers go to a pro each year. TurboTax Live provides us the opportunity to keep more of those customers in our franchise.

    本季消費者總收入成長了 7%,而策略夥伴集團內的專業稅務收入成長了 2%。展望未來,我對 TurboTax Live 能夠滿足更多報稅者的需求感到興奮。我們通常每年會看到 300 萬往年使用 TurboTax 的用戶轉而尋求專業人士的協助。TurboTax Live 為我們提供了將更多顧客留在加盟店的機會。

  • Turning to our financial principles. We continue to take a disciplined approach to capital management. We finished the quarter with approximately $780 million in cash and investments on our balance sheet. Our first priority for cash remains investing in the business to drive customer and revenue growth. Next, we use acquisitions to accelerate our growth and fill out our product road map. We return cash that we can't invest profitably in the business to shareholders via both share repurchases and dividends. We repurchased $170 million of shares in the first quarter. Approximately $1.4 billion remains on our authorization. We expect to be in the market each quarter this year. The board approved a quarterly dividend of $0.39 per share payable January 18, 2018, an increase of 15% over last year.

    回到我們的財務原則。我們將繼續採取嚴謹的資本管理方式。本季末,我們的資產負債表上約有 7.8 億美元的現金和投資。我們現金的首要用途仍然是投資業務,以推動客戶和收入成長。接下來,我們將透過收購來加速成長並完善我們的產品路線圖。我們將無法在業務中進行獲利性投資的現金透過股票回購和分紅的方式返還給股東。第一季我們回購了價值 1.7 億美元的股票。我們授權的資金還剩約14億美元。我們預計今年每季都會進入市場。董事會批准了每股 0.39 美元的季度股息,將於 2018 年 1 月 18 日支付,比去年增長 15%。

  • Our Q2 fiscal 2018 guidance provides revenue growth of 14% to 16%, GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.08 to $0.11 and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.31 to $0.34. You can find our Q2 and fiscal 2018 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet.

    我們對 2018 財年第二季的業績預期為:營收成長 14% 至 16%,GAAP 稀釋後每股收益 0.08 美元至 0.11 美元,非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益 0.31 美元至 0.34 美元。您可以在我們的新聞稿和情況說明書中找到我們 2018 年第二季和財年的業績指引詳情。

  • Finally, I'd just like to say that I'm thankful for the opportunity to work with you, Brad, for the last 10 years. It has been the high point of my career to learn from you and to laugh with you during our time together. And I'll miss you.

    最後,我想說,我非常感謝過去 10 年有機會與你共事,布拉德。能向您學習,並在與您共事的時光裡與您歡笑,是我職業生涯中最美好的回憶。我會想念你的。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Thank you, Neil. There are no words, although I'll share some at the end of the call, but I do say that these last 10 years have flown by like it was just a blink of an eye. It's been an awesome ride.

    謝謝你,尼爾。雖然通話結束時我會分享一些感受,但我還是想說,過去的這十年就像眨眼之間一樣飛逝而過。這段旅程真是太棒了。

  • So shifting back to the business, we are pleased with the strong start to the fiscal year, and we look forward to accelerating our momentum as we head into peak season. We couldn't be more proud of the work that our employees are doing. And with that, let's open it up to hear what's on your mind.

    回到業務方面,我們對本財年的強勁開局感到滿意,並期待在進入旺季之際加快發展勢頭。我們為員工所做的工作感到無比自豪。那麼,讓我們打開話匣子,聽聽你們的想法吧。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

    (操作說明)我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

  • Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

    Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

  • Brad, on QuickBooks capital, I was curious if you could just talk a little bit about your aspirations. And as I understand it, in the past, you had a group of connected lenders that would loan to small businesses. I think now you're putting your own capital out to these small businesses. Can you just walk through the dynamics and how those changes in this initiative? And I had a quick follow-up.

    Brad,關於 QuickBooks Capital,我很好奇你是否可以談談你的願景。據我了解,過去曾有一群相互關聯的貸款機構,專門向小型企業提供貸款。我認為你現在正在用自己的資金投資這些小企業。您能否簡單介紹一下這項計劃的運作機制以及這些機制是如何改變的?我隨後又快速地跟進了一件事。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Sure, Brent. Let me start by saying that our goal remains unchanged. If you look at the number of Small Businesses & Self-Employed who are seeking access to credit, 70% of them still get turned down. And yet, we have visibility into things that most lenders don't have. Most only have a look backwards at history. We also have a look forwards. We have over 26 billion transactions in the QuickBooks ecosystem that we're able to look at. That includes forward-looking things like inventory on hand, invoices outstanding, cash flow, projects and process. And it's the combination of the past and the future and a proprietary algorithm that we think has led to a credit score or a credit rating system that is much more predictive of good businesses in which you can invest.

    當然可以,布倫特。首先我想說的是,我們的目標仍然沒有改變。如果你看一下尋求獲得信貸的小型企業和自僱人士的數量,你會發現其中 70% 的人仍然被拒絕。然而,我們卻掌握著大多數貸款機構所不了解的資訊。大多數人只關注歷史的過去。我們也展望未來。我們在 QuickBooks 生態系統中擁有超過 260 億筆交易記錄可供查看。這包括對未來情況的展望,例如庫存、未結發票、現金流量、項目和流程。我們認為,正是過去與未來以及專有演算法的結合,造就了能夠更準確地預測值得投資的優質企業的信用評分或信用評級系統。

  • And case in point is, so far to date, 60% of the loans that we've been able to issue or facilitate have been to people that would have been considered unlendable by other institutions. So we're really excited to get access to capital into the hands of these small businesses and self-employed.

    例如,到目前為止,我們發放或促成的貸款中,有 60% 是發給其他機構認為無法獲得貸款的人的。因此,我們非常高興能夠讓這些小型企業和自僱人士獲得資金。

  • To your second question, we think this could be a very promising opportunity over the long term, but our use of capital was really to fuel or prime the pump. What we needed to do was get a rapid feedback loop on whether our algorithms were predicting the things that we needed so it would make it a better tool for other lenders. And so we, at this point in time, don't have plans to become a bank. And we don't have plans to lean into that aggressively as opposed to using it as a way for us to tune our algorithms and make it a really good platform for other lenders to be able to provide access to capital. So that's sort of the summary of QuickBooks capital and hopefully answered your question.

    關於你的第二個問題,我們認為從長遠來看,這可能是一個很有前途的機會,但我們投入資金實際上是為了給專案提供動力或啟動資金。我們需要做的是快速獲得回饋,了解我們的演算法是否預測了我們需要的內容,以便使其成為其他貸款機構更好的工具。因此,目前我們還沒有成為銀行的計劃。我們沒有計劃大力發展這項業務,而是將其作為調整演算法、使其成為其他貸款機構能夠提供資金管道的優秀平台的一種方式。以上就是 QuickBooks Capital 的簡要概述,希望能夠解答您的問題。

  • Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

    Brent John Thill - Equity Analyst

  • Great. And just a quick follow-up on the QuickBooks business and the growth rate in the back half of the year. I know you cited a couple of factors, but I think one of the questions we've had from investors is, given how big the market is and how early it is, why the growth rate should be fading at this point? Any perspective? It doesn't sound like there's anything fundamentally off, but I'm just curious, kind of what the rationale is given how early this is and why you would see that type of fade.

    偉大的。最後,我想快速跟進 QuickBooks 業務以及下半年的成長率。我知道您列舉了一些因素,但我認為投資者提出的一個問題是,考慮到市場規模如此之大,而且目前還處於早期階段,為什麼成長率會在這個時候下降?有什麼看法嗎?聽起來似乎沒有什麼根本性的問題,但我只是好奇,考慮到現在還處於早期階段,為什麼會出現這種程度的衰退,背後的邏輯是什麼。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. There is no fundamental weakness in the business itself. As you've heard, the Net Promoter Scores are improving in every geography. We're seeing strong funnel management. We just released a whole new set of innovations at QuickBooks Connect last week that we think will only accelerate the conversion of the funnel. It's just the reality that last year we opened up one of the biggest channels any company could hope for, which is 100 million people visiting TurboTax.com in a 100-day period. And we got a nice pop of customers that were exposed to that for the first time. And so we're going to have that grow-over. Now we don't view that as a foundational or a systemic weakening. We simply view that as a seasonality thing. And we'll see how strong we can go through tax season. But right now, we just want to manage expectations, but we did get a big tranche of customers in that period of time. We want to make sure that we know the second half compares are a little more difficult than the first half.

    是的。企業本身並沒有什麼根本的缺陷。正如你所聽到的,各個地區的淨推薦值都在提高。我們看到了強大的銷售漏斗管理能力。上週我們在 QuickBooks Connect 大會上發布了一系列全新的創新功能,我們認為這些功能只會加速銷售漏斗的轉換。事實是,去年我們開闢了任何公司都夢寐以求​​的最大管道之一,即 100 天內有 1 億人訪問 TurboTax.com。我們因此迎來了一批第一次接觸到這種模式的顧客,反應不錯。所以我們會經歷一個過渡期。現在我們並不認為這是根本性的或系統性的削弱。我們認為這只是季節性現象。我們將看看我們能以多強的勢頭度過報稅季。但現在,我們只想管理好大家的預期,不過在那段時間裡,我們確實獲得了大批客戶。我們要確保我們知道,下半年的比較比上半年的比較困難一些。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kash Rangan with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的卡什·蘭根。

  • Kasthuri Gopalan Rangan - MD and Head of Software

    Kasthuri Gopalan Rangan - MD and Head of Software

  • Neil, we will definitely miss you, and congratulations on your 10 years at Intuit. Brad, question for you. Can you talk a little bit more about TurboTax Live, the specific segment of the market that you're trying to go after? Is there any, on the flip side, potential cannibalization, albeit you may experience higher ASPs, even if that were to happen? But what is it that you're looking to uncover here? And how solid is the market research that you've conducted to validate the true potential for TurboTax Live?

    尼爾,我們一定會非常想念你,恭喜你在 Intuit 工作滿 10 年。布拉德,我有個問題想問你。您能否再詳細介紹一下TurboTax Live,以及您想要瞄準的具體市場區隔?另一方面,是否存在潛在的蠶食效應?即使發生這種情況,您也可能獲得更高的平均售價 (ASP) 嗎?但你究竟想在這裡發現什麼?你們所進行的市場調查,對於驗證TurboTax Live的真正潛力,其可靠性如何?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Great. Thank you, Kash. Well, step back and look at the market, and we'll size the U.S. at a little over 150 million returns that go to the IRS. And somewhere approaching 90 million of those turn to an expert, whether it's a tax store or a tax professional to answer questions or to complete their taxes for them. And when we get underneath that, the series of questions sometimes will just go as far as, if I only had the answer to one nagging question, I would have been happy to do my taxes myself. And that's really where TurboTax Live leans in.

    偉大的。謝謝你,卡什。好吧,退後一步,看看市場,我們估計美國每年向美國國稅局提交的報稅表略多於 1.5 億份。其中約有 9,000 萬人會求助於專家,無論是稅務服務機構或稅務專業人士,來解答疑問或幫他們完成報稅。當我們深入探究這個問題時,一連串的問題有時會發展到這樣的地步:如果我能得到一個困擾我的問題的答案,我寧願自己報稅。而這正是TurboTax Live的優勢所在。

  • Now we have 2 flavors of TurboTax Live. We have the do it with me, where we offer advice and then there's do it for me where we can take over the return and complete the return for you and sign it. And those are both going to be in the marketplace, but we think the big opportunity is going to be that advice-giving. A lot of people out there have simpler taxes, and they simply have a nagging question based upon a life event change. They had a child, they moved between states, they sold stock. And being able to actually get a tax expert on demand to answer that question and then go on and finish your taxes, we think, is a big opportunity.

    現在我們有兩款 TurboTax Live 版本。我們提供「與我一起做」服務,我們會提供建議;還有「代我做」服務,我們可以接管退稅流程,為您完成退稅並簽字。這兩項服務都將進入市場,但我們認為最大的機會在於提供諮詢服務。很多人的稅務狀況比較簡單,他們只是因為生活中發生的一些事情而產生了一些揮之不去的疑問。他們生了個孩子,搬到了其他州,也賣了股票。我們認為,能夠隨時獲得稅務專家的解答,然後繼續完成報稅,這是一個巨大的機會。

  • I don't see this as cannibalization. We actually see this as an opportunity to extend our value further into the market that historically has not moved to the do-it-yourself category or may actually switch from DIY to a tax pro because they lost confidence. We think it's a great retention tool as well as an opportunity to go into a part of the market that we have underserved.

    我不認為這是蠶食。我們實際上將此視為一個機會,可以進一步將我們的價值擴展到歷史上尚未轉向自助服務類別的市場,或者實際上可能會因為失去信心而從 DIY 轉向稅務專業人士。我們認為這是一個很好的客戶維繫工具,也是一個進入我們服務不足的市場領域的機會。

  • Kasthuri Gopalan Rangan - MD and Head of Software

    Kasthuri Gopalan Rangan - MD and Head of Software

  • That's fantastic. Do you have enough capacity to handle the demand if it surges? Because that sounds like a terrific value proposition. That's it for me.

    太棒了。如果需求激增,你們的產能是否足夠應對?因為這聽起來確實是個極具價值的方案。就這些了。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, Kash. I would tell you, as we went through the tax filing extension season in October, we not were only able to validate there's real demand in the market on the consumer side, there's real interest on the professional side, and they like the experience of the platform we've created. But we were also able to run water through the pipes on our ability to scale. Now obviously, as we get into season, we're going to continue to learn because there'll be more and more volume as we go closer to April 15. But right now, we have confidence to say we feel like we've got a strong operational model that has both consumer and tax professional benefit. And we're really excited for the season to come.

    是的,卡什。我可以告訴你,在10月份的報稅延期季期間,我們不僅證實了消費者市場存在真正的需求,專業人士也對此表現出了濃厚的興趣,而且他們喜歡我們創建的平台的體驗。但我們憑藉自身的規模優勢,也能夠讓水流過管道。很顯然,隨著賽季的臨近,我們會繼續學習,因為隨著 4 月 15 日的臨近,比賽場次會越來越多。但就目前而言,我們有信心說,我們擁有一個強大的營運模式,既有利於消費者,也有利於稅務專業人士。我們非常期待即將到來的賽季。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matt Pfau with William Blair.

    下一個問題來自 Matt Pfau 和 William Blair。

  • Matthew Charles Pfau - Analyst

    Matthew Charles Pfau - Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up a bit on TurboTax Live. So first of all, I think you mentioned that there were -- there's typically around 3 million TurboTax customers that go to a pro every year. Just wondering, in terms of those customers that switch over, is it the case that they start the return and then run into a roadblock and switch to a pro? Or does something happen prior to them even starting their tax return that motivates them to switch over to a pro?

    想再跟進一下TurboTax Live的情況。首先,我想你提到過,每年大約有 300 萬 TurboTax 用戶會尋求專業人士的協助。我只是好奇,對於那些轉而選擇專業人士的客戶來說,他們是否一開始就辦理退貨,然後遇到障礙,最終轉而選擇專業人士?或者,在他們開始報稅之前,是否發生了什麼事促使他們轉而尋求專業人士的幫助?

  • And then I guess, parlaying on that, how do you go about communicating to these customers or getting the message out there to sort of stop them from moving over to a pro? And then also, in terms of the live offering, just kind of wondering the initial feedback you've heard from accountants and how confident you are that you'll be able to build up that network big enough to handle any demand that you have on that offering to provide a good experience?

    然後我想,基於此,你該如何與這些客戶溝通,或如何傳達訊息,以阻止他們轉向專業人士呢?另外,關於線上課程,我想了解您從會計師那裡得到的初步回饋,以及您有多大信心能夠建立起足夠大的網絡來應對任何對該課程的需求,從而提供良好的體驗?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Great. Thanks, Matt. So you're right. We did reference 3 million TurboTax customers who, year-over-year, end up losing confidence in themselves simply because of a life event change, and they opt to go to a professional. Sometimes for that next year, sometimes it could be for a couple years, and we have to win them back. Sometimes that decision is made before even logging into the product. Many times, it's once they get into the product and they realize that they've now had a child that's crossed the magic age and they can no longer claim them as a deduction or they sold stock and they start to lose confidence.

    偉大的。謝謝你,馬特。你說得對。我們提到,每年有 300 萬 TurboTax 用戶因為生活事件的改變而逐漸失去自信,最後選擇尋求專業人士的協助。有時是為了來年,有時可能是為了幾年,我們必須贏回他們的心。有時,這種決定甚至在登入產品之前就已經做出了。很多時候,當他們真正投入產品中,卻發現自己的孩子已經過了合適的年齡,不能再將產品作為抵扣項,或者他們賣掉了股票,然後就開始失去信心。

  • So how are we reaching them? Two ways. You're going to see our go-to-market campaigns and our advertising talking about the ability now to have a tax expert on demand. So if you don't log into the product, you'll now know you can because you have a tax expert that'll be included with the software. For those that are in the product, we have in-product discovery. So if we see you hovering too long in a particular area, and throughout the product, there's a perpetual link that says if you want to get access to an expert, simply press here. So we have both outside-the-product advertising and inside-the-product advertising.

    那我們是如何聯絡到他們的呢?兩種方法。你會看到我們的行銷活動和廣告都在宣傳現在可以隨時獲得稅務專家的服務。所以,即使您沒有登入該產品,現在您也知道您可以登入了,因為軟體將包含一位稅務專家。對於那些已經在使用產品的用戶,我們有產品內發現功能。因此,如果我們發現您在某個特定區域停留時間過長,並且在整個產品過程中,都會有一個永久鏈接,提示如果您想聯繫專家,只需點擊此處即可。所以,我們既有產品外部廣告,也有產品內部廣告。

  • In terms of the experience, 2 things have happened. We are way ahead of our expectations in our ability to recruit the number of professionals we think we'll need for season. We had milestones for every month leading up to season, and we are ahead of those milestones in terms of people signing up for the service. So we think we'll have very strong professional supply. And the second is the Net Promoter Scores of those tax professionals during the October extension season was above our targeted goal. So we're excited both in the volume of professionals we're able to recruit, but also the experience they're enjoying so far. Now we'll have to see if we can sustain those levels as we get into the peak tax season.

    就體驗而言,發生了兩件事。我們在招募賽季所需專業人員方面遠遠超出了預期。在賽季開始前的每個月,我們都設定了里程碑,而就註冊用戶數量而言,我們已經超額完成了這些里程碑。所以我們認為我們將擁有非常強大的專業人才儲備。第二點是,這些稅務專業人士在 10 月延期申請季期間的淨推薦值高於我們的目標值。因此,我們既為能夠招募到如此多的專業人才感到興奮,也為他們迄今為止所享受到的體驗感到興奮。現在我們要看看在報稅高峰期能否維持這些水準。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

  • Sanjit Kumar Singh - VP

    Sanjit Kumar Singh - VP

  • This is Sanjit Singh for Keith Weiss. I have 2 questions for you guys. One in terms of this year, in terms of international expansion plan, any new countries that are coming on board this year that's important to flag?

    這是桑吉特·辛格為基斯·韋斯所做的報導。我有兩個問題想問大家。第一,就今年的國際擴張計畫而言,今年有哪些值得重點關注的新國家加入?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • At this point, we haven't announced any additional countries. As we often say, we have so much opportunity in the countries we're in. We have real acceleration happening in Canada, the U.K. and Australia. We're still working to get that last mile with compliance and product market fit in France, India and in Brazil. We do have tests going on in other countries we've referenced in prior calls, but those tests have not yet validated that we're ready to go big into those markets. And so at this point in time, I would say the countries we've announced are the ones we would stay focused on, and that is still a 224 million prospect opportunity. And as we just celebrated 2.55 million subscribers, we have got a lot of headroom just in those countries.

    目前,我們尚未宣布新增國家。正如我們常說的,我們所在的國家有很多機會。加拿大、英國和澳洲正在經歷真正的加速發展。我們仍在努力實現最後一公里,確保在法國、印度和巴西的合規性和產品市場契合度。我們確實在先前電話會議中提到的其他國家進行了一些測試,但這些測試尚未證實我們已經準備好大規模進入這些市場。因此,就目前而言,我認為我們已經宣布的國家是我們將繼續關注的重點,這仍然代表著 2.24 億美元的潛在市場機會。而且我們剛剛慶祝了 255 萬訂閱用戶,光是這些國家我們就有很大的成長空間。

  • Sanjit Kumar Singh - VP

    Sanjit Kumar Singh - VP

  • That's super helpful. And then maybe talking -- toggle back to the commentary on the TurboTax bundle. Any early indications on what retention rates might be for those cohorts of customers that signed on last year? Any sort of early readings on whether they're staying on board or whether they are trending higher than normal?

    這太有幫助了。然後也許可以聊天——切換回對 TurboTax 套裝的評論。對於去年簽約的那批客戶,目前是否有任何關於其留存率的初步跡象?是否有任何早期跡象表明他們是否會繼續持有股份,或者他們的持股比例是否高於正常水平?

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes, (inaudible). I think the proof is going to be in the tax preparation season. The customers that have that bundle now look good in terms of their retention and their active use. But we all know that it's the tax preparation process itself that is the big value proposition for these customers. And so I think we want to get through an entire filing season and have a full annual cycle with these customers before we get too definitive about what their retention characteristics are.

    是的,(聽不清楚)。我認為報稅季將會證明一切。目前擁有該套餐的客戶在客戶留存率和活躍使用率方面表現良好。但我們都知道,對這些客戶而言,真正有價值的是報稅流程本身。因此,我認為我們應該經歷一個完整的報稅季,並與這些客戶建立完整的年度週期,然後再對他們的留存特徵做出更明確的判斷。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Adam Holt with MoffettNathanson.

    下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Adam Holt。

  • Adam Hathaway Holt - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Adam Hathaway Holt - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • It's Adam Holt from MoffettNathanson. So another good first quarter. And I had 2 questions on the QuickBooks business. First, it looked like outstanding year-on-year margin expansion in QuickBooks, looked like 3 full points on a year-on-year basis despite strong unit growth. You've talked a lot about different factors that drive that. But maybe as it relates specifically to this quarter, what did you see that enabled you to expand margins so much?

    他是來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Adam Holt。又是一個不錯的第一季。我還有 2 個關於 QuickBooks 業務的問題。首先,QuickBooks 的年比利潤率看起來非常出色,儘管銷售成長強勁,但同比利潤率卻成長了整整 3 個百分點。您已經談到了很多導致這種情況發生的不同因素。但就本季而言,您認為是什麼因素使得利潤率能夠如此大幅提升?

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Adam, the seasonality, I think, is something that can play some tricks on you in terms of trying to do the margins analysis there. We don't really look at it on too much on a quarter-by-quarter basis. As I mentioned on the call, the accounting revenue is really what's driving the top line, the revenue growth, our retention rates for QuickBooks is doing nicely. And so that's held up the revenue side really well. But our expenses and our investments are not really not evenly distributed throughout the year. So we're excited about where it is, but it's going to move around a bit through the year. So we're excited about the customer growth and the top line growth, for sure.

    亞當,我認為,季節性因素可能會在進行利潤率分析時給你帶來一些麻煩。我們其實不太會按季度來關注這個問題。正如我在電話會議中提到的,會計收入才是真正推動營收成長的因素,QuickBooks 的客戶留存率表現良好。因此,營收方面保持了良好的勢頭。但我們的支出和投資其實並沒有均勻地分佈在全年。所以我們對它目前的位置感到興奮,但它在今年內還會有一些變動。所以,我們對客戶成長和營收成長感到非常興奮。

  • Adam Hathaway Holt - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Adam Hathaway Holt - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • Well, I'll apologize and I'm going to ask another quarter-oriented question. But you beat numbers this quarter. And as we've learned in the past, sometimes you roll that into the year. And in this case, you did as well. So the annual numbers don't change, which means we've got to take down our numbers a little bit in one of the forward quarters. Given what you said about the tough comps in QuickBooks, which seemed to be tougher in Q3, should we: a, assume that the delta is in QuickBooks? And b, assume that, that principally falls in the third quarter? That's it for me.

    好吧,我道歉,我還要問一個與季度相關的問題。但你本季業績超乎預期。正如我們過去所了解到的,有時你會把這種情況延續到一年。而在這個例子中,你也做到了。所以年度數字沒有變化,這意味著我們必須在未來某個季度稍微降低一些數字。鑑於您之前提到 QuickBooks 的比較數據比較困難,而且第三季的情況似乎更加嚴峻,我們是否應該:a. 假設差異存在於 QuickBooks 中?b,假設這主要發生在第三季?就這些了。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Adam, I think that, definitely, the Small Business Group was the one driving the revenue growth in Q1. We do think that we've got a tough grow-over in Q3, particularly in small business. And so that's why the overall guidance we've given for the year for revenue and for subs takes that into account. And that's why we've been cautioning people that we're going to have a tough compare when we get to those self-employed bundle units in Q3. So I would look to the full year guidance both in terms of online ecosystem revenue and in terms of subs and think about how Q2 and Q3 play out for those. But I would stick -- I wouldn't get far away from the full year guidance on either revenue or subs for the Small Business segment.

    亞當,我認為,毫無疑問,小型企業集團是第一季營收成長的主要動力。我們認為第三季成長將面臨嚴峻挑戰,尤其是在小型企業方面。因此,我們在給出的年度營收和訂閱用戶總體預期中已經考慮到了這一點。所以,我們一直提醒大家,第三季自僱人士捆綁銷售單位的業績將面臨嚴峻的比較。因此,我會關注全年線上生態系統收入和訂閱用戶數量的預期,並思考第二季和第三季的業績表現。但我會堅持——無論是在收入還是小型企業部門的訂閱用戶方面,我都不會偏離全年的業績預期。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Nemeroff with Crédit Suisse.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的邁克爾·內梅羅夫。

  • Michael Barry Nemeroff - Director

    Michael Barry Nemeroff - Director

  • Congrats on a good quarter. Neil, been nice working with you. Good luck going forward. Brad, I wanted to ask about TurboTax Live. And I know there's been a bunch of questions on it. But can you give us a sense of what pricing has looked like during this trial period and how you expect that to be priced going into this tax season? And then for -- that's it for the second.

    恭喜你本季業績出色。尼爾,和你一起工作很愉快。祝你未來一切順利。布拉德,我想問關於TurboTax Live的問題。我知道大家對此有很多疑問。但您能否簡要介紹一下此次試行期間的定價情況,以及您預計本報稅季的定價將如何?然後——第二個就到此為止了。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • All right, Michael. So many of you have been going through the product, and we've spoken to you offline. And you've been a part of our test cells. We've been testing a lot of price points out there. We have not yet announced our pricing. It's still a little too far out for us to give competition or others that nod. But I would say that what you're going to see is it's going to be a premium to the current price points we have in the TurboTax lineup, but we have not landed yet on what that price point will be or announced it. So if you don't mind, I'd like to just hold that back and we'll get a little closer to season, and then you'll see the price points out there.

    好的,麥可。很多朋友都體驗過這款產品,我們也在線下和你們交流過。你曾是我們測試小組的一員。我們測試過市面上許多不同價位的產品。我們尚未公佈定價資訊。現在就給競爭對手或其他點頭示意的人下結論還為時過早。但我認為,它的價格會比我們目前TurboTax產品線的價格高一些,但我們還沒有確定具體的價格,也沒有公佈具體價格。所以,如果您不介意的話,我想暫時保留這個訊息,等到賽季臨近的時候,您就會看到當時的定價了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jesse Hulsing with Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的傑西·赫爾辛。

  • Jesse Wade Hulsing - Equity Analyst

    Jesse Wade Hulsing - Equity Analyst

  • Brad, I wanted to ask about Turbo, which it sounds like you're launching next year. If you were to compare Turbo to some of the other consumer finance platforms out there, I guess like Mint and Credit Karma and others, what's the value proposition to consumers to get them to use the app? And I guess, if you're a partner institution looking at Turbo versus the others, what's the value proposition for those partner institutions and lenders?

    布萊德,我想問關於Turbo的問題,聽起來你們明年要推出這款產品。如果將 Turbo 與市面上其他一些消費金融平台(例如 Mint 和 Credit Karma 等)進行比較,那麼 Turbo 對消費者的價值主張是什麼,才能吸引他們使用該應用程式?我想,如果您是一家合作機構,正在比較 Turbo 和其他產品,那麼 Turbo 對這些合作機構和貸款機構的價值主張是什麼?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Great. Thank you, Jesse. Let me start with just the interaction model. Our mission is to power prosperity. And for the consumer group it is provide financial freedom for consumers. And so financial freedom is a 365-day-a-year task. Historically, with TurboTax, we enjoyed 2 interactions with customers a year, where Mint enjoyed 112 interactions with customers. The challenge is both were incomplete on a stand-alone basis. But when you bring them together as a platform and then you begin to look at the other customer and partner data that we have in our ecosystem, we believe we can provide a platform that can help individuals and families better manage their financial health. The reason being is not unlike what I shared with QuickBooks Capital, because we have access to more data. And it's not only backward-looking, but forward-looking.

    偉大的。謝謝你,傑西。我先從交互模型開始講起。我們的使命是促進繁榮。對消費者群體而言,它意味著為消費者提供財務自由。因此,實現財務自由是一項全年365天的任務。從歷史資料來看,TurboTax 每年與顧客的互動次數為 2 次,而 Mint 每年與顧客的互動次數為 112 次。問題在於,這兩者單獨來看都不完整。但是,當我們將它們整合到一個平台中,並開始查看我們生態系統中其他客戶和合作夥伴的數據時,我們相信我們可以提供一個平台,幫助個人和家庭更好地管理他們的財務健康。原因與我之前向 QuickBooks Capital 解釋的情況類似,因為我們可以取得更多的資料。它不僅著眼於過去,也著眼於未來。

  • Today, with a credit score, what you can basically get with that is access to more credit cards. But if you had debt-to-income ratio, if you have IRS-filed income that's been verified by the government, so it's a real source of income, and you also have a credit score, you can put the combination of those 3 things together, and you can start to do some pretty wonderful things for consumers. You can help them find better financing for student loans. You can help them get lower credit card fees. You can help them get access to mortgages, to get better loans for car loans and a whole host of other things.

    如今,有了信用評分,基本上你就能獲得更多信用卡。但是,如果你有債務收入比,如果你有經政府核實的、向美國國稅局申報的收入(這是一個真實的收入來源),並且你還有信用評分,那麼你可以將這三件事結合起來,就可以開始為消費者做一些非常棒的事情。你可以幫助他們找到更好的學生貸款融資方案。你可以幫助他們降低信用卡手續費。你可以幫助他們獲得抵押貸款、更好的汽車貸款以及其他各種貸款。

  • So we fundamentally believe that the data we have, the algorithm that we've written and the partners, the 40 that came with Mint, the more than half a dozen that have already signed up for Turbo, and you put them together with others, we think we're going to be able to start to solve some important financial problems for consumers that others in the market just quite frankly can't match today. And that's the excitement. We still have much to prove, so we haven't baked a lot of that into any financials for this year. But we sure have a team focused on it, and we think we're on something that could be really meaningful to consumers if we get it right.

    因此,我們從根本上相信,憑藉我們擁有的數據、我們編寫的演算法以及合作夥伴(Mint 的 40 家合作夥伴,以及已經簽約 Turbo 的六家以上合作夥伴),再加上其他資源,我們認為我們將能夠開始為消費者解決一些重要的財務問題,而坦白說,目前市場上的其他公司根本無法做到這一點。這就是令人興奮的地方。我們還有很多需要證明的地方,所以今年的財務預測還沒有充分考慮這些因素。但我們確實有一個團隊專注於此,而且我們認為,如果我們做對了,我們正在做的事情對消費者來說可能真的意義重大。

  • Jesse Wade Hulsing - Equity Analyst

    Jesse Wade Hulsing - Equity Analyst

  • That's helpful, Brad. And a question about QuickBooks Online. If I -- it looks like ARPU was flat year-over-year, and which is great to see, given the increasing self-employed mix and international mix. It was also flat year-over-year in the first quarter of last year and then declined year-over-year in the second through fourth quarters. I'm wondering, do you expect that same pattern to play out through the remainder of this year?

    那很有幫助,布拉德。還有一個關於 QuickBooks Online 的問題。如果我沒看錯的話——ARPU 看起來與去年同期持平,考慮到自僱人士比例和國際客戶比例的不斷增長,這真是個好消息。去年第一季與去年同期持平,第二季至第四季年減。我想知道,您是否預計今年剩餘時間裡,這種模式還會持續下去?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, Jesse, you're welcome. Appreciate the question. If you go to our Investor Day deck, Neil did a wonderful job of laying out a page on ARPU and what we expected the trends to be going forward. And basically, if I had to summarize that for you, because it has individual QBO U.S., QBO non-U. S, QuickBooks Self-Employed, you just lay them all out. What you're going to see is the health of the ARPU on a cohort basis is getting stronger across all those cohorts. But when you put it together as a mix, you're going to have downward pressure on ARPU.

    不客氣,傑西。感謝您的提問。如果你去看我們的投資者日演示文稿,你會發現 Neil 非常出色地用一頁篇幅介紹了 ARPU 以及我們對未來趨勢的預期。基本上,如果我必須為你總結一下,因為它有單獨的 QBO 美國版、QBO 非美國版。S,QuickBooks Self-Employed,你只需要把它們全部列出來就好了。你會看到,從群體層面來看,ARPU(每位使用者平均收入)的健康狀況在各個群體中都在不斷增強。但當它們混合在一起時,就會對每位使用者平均收入(ARPU)造成下行壓力。

  • So as you said, I would echo what you said, flat given the growth we're seeing outside the U.S. and the self-employed is a good thing. But you should know, underneath, the ARPU is getting healthier in each of those cohorts. And it's only a good news story over time. So I think Neil's page in the Investor Day deck kind of lays out what our expectations are for ARPU. And I think if you refer back to that, it pretty much says what you just assumed.

    正如你所說,我同意你的觀點,考慮到美國以外地區和自僱人士的成長,經濟保持平穩是一件好事。但你應該知道,實際上,在這些群體中,ARPU(每位使用者平均收入)都在不斷改善。隨著時間的推移,這只會是一個好消息。所以我認為尼爾在投資者日簡報中的那一頁大致闡述了我們對 ARPU 的預期。我認為,如果你回顧那篇文章,它基本上證實了你剛才的假設。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kirk Materne with Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。

  • Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

    Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Brad, now that we're through the extended filing season, I was wondering if you had any sort of thoughts when you look back and you got the sort of last pieces of data from last year. Did that inform your view on the upcoming season at all just in terms of the baseline units to start with? I mean it sounds like everything is pretty much in line with what you thought, but I just want to double check on that.

    布拉德,既然漫長的報稅季已經過去,我想知道,當你回顧去年最後收集到的數據時,你有沒有什麼想法。就初始基準單位而言,這是否對即將到來的賽季的看法產生了任何影響?我的意思是,聽起來一切都跟你預想的差不多,但我還是想再確認一下。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Last year's still one of those years that's going to play out as an anomaly, not unlike 2013. I think when you throw everything in including extensions, it's still going to be hovering around flat as a tax season with total IRS returns. And we had anticipated between 0% and 1% growth. I know we were a little more muted in our expectations than many in the industry. However, as we look ahead, we still have that same sort of an outlook for the coming year. We think it's a 0% to 1% growth year in total returns.

    是的。去年仍然是那種會被視為異常的年份之一,與 2013 年的情況類似。我認為,即使把所有因素都考慮進去,包括延期申報,最終的報稅季總數(包括國稅局申報)仍然會與往年持平。我們之前預計成長率在0%到1%之間。我知道我們當時的期望值比業界許多人都要低一些。然而,展望未來,我們對來年仍抱持著同樣的預期。我們認為今年總回報率將達到 0% 至 1%。

  • No one's really been able to diagnose, I was just meeting with the IRS commissioner and my peers in the industry 3 weeks ago in Washington. No one had a better hypothesis for what happened in tax season other than, who knows and we'll just have to gear up and get ready for this season. So it hasn't changed our expectations for this year. I think we're looking at a fairly modest total returns growth happening at the government level.

    目前還沒有人能夠真正正確診,就在三週前,我還在華盛頓與美國國稅局局長和業內同行會面。對於報稅季究竟發生了什麼,除了「誰知道呢」之外,沒有人能提出更好的假設,我們只能準備好迎接這個季節了。所以,這並沒有改變我們對今年的期待。我認為政府層面的總回報成長將相當溫和。

  • Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

    Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Okay. And just with the legislation pushing through Congress right now. Does that change any thoughts in terms of just the shape of the season from a seasonal perspective in your view? Or is it still more of a, you'll just have to wait and see what happens?

    好的。而現在國會正在推動的立法也正在醞釀中。從季節角度來看,這是否會改變您對本季形狀的看法?或者,情況更像是「你只能拭目以待」?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, at this point, it doesn't. You're right. There's still a lot that we're going to have to wait and see. If there is positive news, it's both coming out of the House and Senate. Most of the recommendations are proactive versus retroactive. Retroactive becomes an operational challenge for the IRS. And then that cascades down to industry, and sometimes, that leads to a late tax filing season. If Congress can actually get this through either sometime before the end of the calendar year or early January, as long it's proactive, we still believe the shape of the season looks pretty much the same.

    是的,目前還不行。你說得對。還有很多事情我們還需要拭目以待。如果有什麼好消息,那就是眾議院和參議院都傳來了消息。大多數建議都是前瞻性的,而不是回顧性的。追溯性課稅對美國國稅局來說是一項操作上的挑戰。然後,這種影響會波及到各個行業,有時會導致報稅季延遲。如果國會真的能在年底前或1月初通過這項法案,只要是積極主動的舉措,我們仍然認為本季的格局看起來基本上不會改變。

  • There's just one caveat there, and the one caveat I'll toss in for those who look at the calendar closely. This year's Q2 will have 1 extra filing day in it. It's just the way the calendar works for us. And 1 day in a 100-day season can move things around just a little bit. The total season, we don't really see anything that we think's going to fundamentally reshape the curve.

    不過有一點要注意,這也是我要補充的,給那些仔細檢查日曆的人。今年第二季將多出一天報稅日。對我們來說,日曆就是這樣運作的。在一個為期 100 天的賽季中,即使只有一天的變化,也足以讓事情發生一些小小的改變。就整個賽季而言,我們並沒有看到任何我們認為會從根本上改變趨勢的因素。

  • Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

    Stewart Kirk Materne - Senior MD and Fundamental Research Analyst

  • Great. That's it for me. Neil, best of luck going forward.

    偉大的。就這些了。尼爾,祝你未來一切順利。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thanks, Kirk.

    謝謝你,柯克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Michael Millman with Millman Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Millman Research 的 Michael Millman。

  • Michael Millman - Founder

    Michael Millman - Founder

  • And also looking at the IRS kind of information. So really, 2 areas of questions. First, on standard deduction increase, assuming increase. How do you see this impacting both taxpayers now who are using assisted because they have all these deductions, computations and now they may not? And sort of similarly, how do you see those who are now using do-it-yourself and say, "Boy, it's gotten so simple. I can do this myself." Maybe you can sort of put some numbers to those things. And then I have another question.

    也要查看國稅局之類的資訊。所以實際上,有兩個方面的問題。首先,假設標準扣除額增加。您認為這會對目前享有稅收優惠的納稅人產生什麼影響?因為他們可以獲得各種扣除和計算,而現在他們可能無法享受這些優惠了。類似地,你如何看待那些現在使用 DIY 的人,他們會說:“哇,這變得太簡單了。”我可以自己做這件事。 「或許你可以用一些數字來量化這些事情。我還有一個問題。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thank you, Michael. I think your overall thesis is similar to ours, and that is the more success we have in getting the tax code simplified, the more success that will drive category growth for the do-it-yourself category. Many people turn to an expert today because they have a nagging question or they think it's too complicated. So we think the simpler Congress gets the tax code, that's better news for the do-it-yourself category. And as you know, that's the #1 lever of growth for us. 1 point of category growth is worth several points of revenue for us if it plays out.

    是的。謝謝你,麥可。我認為你們的整體論點與我們類似,那就是,我們在簡化稅法方面取得的成功越多,就越能推動DIY品類的成長。如今,許多人向專家求助,是因為他們心中有疑問,或者他們認為問題太複雜。所以我們認為,國會獲得的稅法越簡單,對喜歡自己動手的人來說就越是好消息。如您所知,這是我們實現成長的首要槓桿。如果能實現,品類成長 1 個百分點對我們來說就相當於幾個百分點的營收成長。

  • The second is, the do-it-yourself category, I think software is the answer. I mean, if you look at the IRS, they will tell you they don't have the bodies to process paper returns like they did even 5 years ago. So if someone says, "This is so simple. I can do it myself." They're going to use software to do it. And so we just have to make sure we have the best, most effective software for them to get that done. I think, by and large, a simplification is a good news story for the do-it-yourself category.

    第二點是自己動手解決的問題,我認為軟體是答案。我的意思是,如果你去問美國國稅局,他們會告訴你,他們現在沒有足夠的人手來處理像 5 年前那樣的紙本報稅單。所以如果有人說,「這太簡單了。我可以自己做。 「他們將使用軟體來完成這項工作。因此,我們只需要確保我們擁有最好、最有效的軟體來完成這項工作。我認為,總的來說,簡化對於DIY領域來說是個好消息。

  • Michael Millman - Founder

    Michael Millman - Founder

  • And so related, it's -- in simplification is the postcard return. And I know you fought against this in California. So I've got to assume there's things about it you don't like. And maybe you can talk about what you see coming forward, if indeed we have tax on a postcard.

    因此,與之相關的——簡單來說就是明信片的寄回。我知道你曾在加州反對過這種做法。所以,我只能假設你對它有一些不滿意的地方。或許你可以談談你預見的未來,如果真的要對明信片徵稅的話。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thanks, Michael. Let me try to clarify what we were standing for and standing against in California. We were for simplification. We have been for more than a decade, and we were for getting it so simple you could get it done on a postcard. Where we draw the line is we are believers and supporters in voluntary compliance, which is the citizen has the right to determine what they believe they owe the government. And it's the burden of the government to prove that they're wrong and not the other way around. It shouldn't be the government actually sending out this form and saying, "Here's what you owe us." And then people who may have English as their second language or people who may be intimidated by the government paying a number that may be overpaid because they're just nervous.

    是的。謝謝你,麥可。讓我試著解釋一下我們在加州所支持的和反對的立場。我們主張簡化。十多年來,我們一直致力於讓一切變得如此簡單,以至於你可以在一張明信片上完成所有事情。我們的底線是,我們相信並支持自願遵守,即公民有權決定他們認為自己對政府負有的義務。政府有責任證明他們錯了,而不是反過來。政府不應該直接寄出這份表格,然後說:「這是你欠我們的錢。」這樣一來,那些英語不是母語的人,或者那些可能因為害怕政府而支付過高金額的人,就可能因為緊張而支付了過多的費用。

  • So what we've done, just to be candid with you, it's why I was up in Washington a few weeks ago, we've even built prototypes that we've shown Congress and the administration on how private industry can help them build this postcard for them so that they can execute the plan they want to deliver. We think that would be a wonderful thing. We just believe, at the end of the day, it's the individual's right to determine what their tax obligation is, and it is not the government's role to come in and say, "I'm going to tell you what you owe me and pay me the money."

    坦白說,這就是我幾週前去華盛頓的原因,我們甚至製作了原型,並向國會和政府展示了私人企業如何幫助他們製作這張明信片,以便他們能夠執行他們想要實現的計劃。我們認為那會是一件非常棒的事。我們始終認為,歸根結底,個人有權決定自己的納稅義務,政府不應該介入並說:“我要告訴你你欠我多少錢,然後把錢付給我。”

  • Michael Millman - Founder

    Michael Millman - Founder

  • So assuming the government takes your advice, what kind of impact would you see on the do-it-yourself business?

    假設政府採納了你的建議,你認為這對自助式產業會產生什麼樣的影響?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, I'm not sure the government will take my advice. I think the good news is industry, overall, as well as Congress, many members of Congress have been on the record saying that this is the way the country was founded so many years ago is we felt that we should have the ability to determine what we owe based upon a set of rules and laws and not have somebody dictate to us what they're going to make us pay. So with that sentiment, and we happen to be in that camp, we believe at the end of the day the simpler this thing gets, the more people are going to move into do-it-yourself. And I think it's going to be a real accelerant, not only for the economy, but for the category. And then ultimately, for us, if we do our job.

    我不確定政府是否會採納我的建議。我認為好消息是,整個產業以及國會,許多國會議員都公開表示,這個國家多年前建立之初就認為,我們應該有能力根據一套規則和法律來決定我們應盡的義務,而不是讓別人來決定我們要付多少錢。所以,基於這個想法(我們剛好也屬於這個陣營),我們相信,歸根究底,這件事越簡單,就會有越多的人選擇自己動手。我認為這不僅對經濟,對整個產業來說,都將是一個真正的加速器。最終,對我們來說,如果我們做好自己的工作。

  • Michael Millman - Founder

    Michael Millman - Founder

  • Okay. And Neil, best of luck in the future.

    好的。尼爾,祝你未來一切順利。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thanks, Michael.

    謝謝你,麥可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross MacMillan with RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的羅斯·麥克米倫。

  • Ross Stuart MacMillan - Co-Head of Software Sector

    Ross Stuart MacMillan - Co-Head of Software Sector

  • Brad, we did a survey recently looking at TurboTax Live, and there was I guess, 2 things that I was interested to ask. I know you're not talking about pricing specifically, but I believe the assisted category has, call it revenue or dollars per return that are something like 4x what TurboTax currently has. And as you think about the pricing model for this new offering, I'm just curious if you could frame it in that context, and I guess just trying to think about that envelope and how far you think you may be able to go.

    布拉德,我們最近對 TurboTax Live 做了一項調查,我想問兩個問題。我知道你不是在具體討論價格,但我相信輔助報稅類別的收入或每份報稅單的金額大約是 TurboTax 目前收入的 4 倍。當您考慮這款新產品的定價模式時,我只是好奇您能否從這個角度來闡述一下,我想問您,您覺得這個範圍能有多大?

  • And then secondarily, we also found that other services like audit insurance and fraud protection could also sway customer decisions. And I would think those would be important for folks that are maybe -- have more complex filings. So I was just curious for your thoughts around sort of bundling some additional services with the TurboTax Live offering to try to increase participation.

    其次,我們也發現,審計保險和詐欺保護等其他服務也可能影響客戶的決策。我認為這對那些可能需要提交更複雜文件的人來說很重要。所以我很好奇,您是否考慮過將一些額外的服務與 TurboTax Live 服務捆綁在一起,以提高用戶參與度。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thank you, Ross. And always appreciate the work that you and your team do with the surveys and the in-market discoveries. Your analysis is correct. If you take a look at the average revenue per return we get in TurboTax, it's a little north of $50. If you look at what an average tax store charges, it's in that $180 to $220 range. And you can go to a pro, and it's $300 or $400. So that's multiples of the current price point of TurboTax. We're not here today to tell you or anybody else on the call that we're announcing a 4x price point on TurboTax Live. In fact, what you should hear is we think we have a disruptive business model that will allow us to provide better value for the customer. And at the same time, be able to have them be a part of TurboTax franchise. So just know that somewhere north of where we are and south of where they are is probably going to be in the ZIP Code of where the pricing will be.

    是的。謝謝你,羅斯。一直以來,我都非常感激您和您的團隊在調查和市場調查方面所做的工作。你的分析是正確的。如果你看一下我們在 TurboTax 中獲得的每份報稅單的平均收入,你會發現它略高於 50 美元。如果你看一下一般稅務商店的收費標準,大概在 180 美元到 220 美元之間。你可以去找專業人士,費用是 300 或 400 美元。所以,這相當於TurboTax目前價格的數倍。我們今天來這裡不是為了告訴您或電話會議上的其他人,我們將宣布 TurboTax Live 的價格上漲 4 倍。事實上,你應該聽到的是,我們認為我們擁有顛覆性的商業模式,這將使我們能夠為客戶提供更大的價值。同時,也要讓他們成為 TurboTax 特許經營的一部分。所以,你要知道,在我們所在位置以北、他們所在位置以南的某個地方,很可能就是定價區域所在的郵遞區號區域。

  • And then you're on a really important point. With everything happening in the market today, whether it's cyber threats or other things, whether it's audit insurance or it's fraud protection, those are absolutely the kinds of services we continue to not only market ourselves, but look at creatively bundling with other products. As we get closer to season, you'll hear us talk a little bit more about those things, but that is the right theme. People are looking for peace of mind and some assurance that if anything happens to them that we've got their back. And that's what we want to continue to be there for.

    這樣你就說到了一個非常重要的問題。鑑於當今市場上發生的一切,無論是網路威脅還是其他問題,無論是審計保險還是詐欺保護,這些絕對是我們不僅會繼續推廣自身服務,而且還會考慮創造性地與其他產品捆綁銷售的服務類型。隨著賽季臨近,我們會更多地談論這些事情,但這確實是正確的主題。人們尋求的是安心感,以及一種保證,如果他們發生任何意外,我們會為他們提供支持。而這正是我們希望繼續存在的意義。

  • Ross Stuart MacMillan - Co-Head of Software Sector

    Ross Stuart MacMillan - Co-Head of Software Sector

  • Congrats as well, Neil, and good luck in the future.

    也恭喜你,尼爾,祝你未來一切順利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger with Oppenheimer.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的史考特‧施內伯格。

  • Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

    Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Just curious, there's been a lot of talk about timing fiscal second, third quarter. And thanks for the extra filing day. That's interesting. I realize other things can move around relative to the guidance, like maybe what comes out of the tax bill or other items. But I'm just curious, the PATH Act was disruptive last year on the consumer tax side. So Brad or Neil, what's the consideration in the guidance for the start of the tax season? How strong or weak are you -- are you expecting there? And how does that play into the guidance?

    只是好奇,最近有很多關於第二財季和第三財季時間安排的討論。感謝您額外增加一天的報稅時間。那很有意思。我知道其他一些事情可能會相對於指導意見有所變動,例如稅單上的金額或其他項目。但我很好奇,去年的《PATH法案》在消費者稅收方面造成了極大的混亂。那麼,布拉德或尼爾,在報稅季開始時,你們的指導意見有哪些考慮因素?你體型如何?你期待在那裡嗎?那這又如何融入指導方針呢?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, Scott, we think that last year was an opportunity not only for the market, but for all of us in the industry to adjust to the PATH Act. There was definitely a little bit of shock and awe last year, no matter how hard we tried to educate the end user. Once they finally fell into the muscle memory of filing their taxes, a lot of them were still surprised they weren't going to be able to get their money until -- in February. I think that experience that they went through, plus the experience we all had in conjunction with the IRS is we anticipate it's going to be a new normal now in terms of what the PATH Act impact will be. So we don't really see any meaningful or material shift year-over-year. That's all subject to no surprises coming out of Congress between now and tax filing season.

    是的,史考特,我們認為去年不僅對市場而言是一個機會,對我們整個產業來說也是一個調整以適應《PATH法案》的機會。去年,無論我們如何努力教育最終用戶,都確實引起了一些震驚和敬畏。即使他們最終養成了報稅的習慣,很多人仍然感到驚訝,因為他們要到二月才能拿到退稅。我認為他們所經歷的,加上我們所有人與美國國稅局共同經歷的,讓我們預計《PATH法案》的影響將成為一種新的常態。因此,我們並沒有看到任何實質的年度變化。這一切的前提是,從現在到報稅季期間,國會不會有任何出乎意料的舉動。

  • Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

    Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Great. Appreciate that. And then, Neil, if we can bring you on, since it's probably our last chance. Kind of a similar question along the line of obviously there are a lot of investments going on this year. And I'm just curious how that might affect seasonality in second quarter and third quarter this year and maybe things we might want to consider on the marketing front.

    偉大的。謝謝。還有,尼爾,如果我們能讓你加入我們就好了,因為這可能是我們最後的機會了。這個問題與今年的投資活動明顯相關的問題類似。我很好奇這會對今年第二季和第三季的季節性產生怎樣的影響,以及我們在行銷方面可能需要考慮哪些因素。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes, Scott. I think the seasonality for Q2 and Q3 on the -- our investment side both in R&D and in marketing ought to follow a similar path as last year. It may be invested a little differently in some different ways but we may have reallocated a bit within the categories, but I wouldn't expect to see any more shifts between quarters than you saw the last few years. Obviously, Q1 and Q4 are the lightest quarters for us, but Q2 and Q3 are the critical periods for us. And the investment levels in those quarters are pretty well baked.

    是的,斯科特。我認為第二季和第三季我們在研發和行銷方面的投資季節性應該會與去年類似。投資方式可能會略有不同,我們可能會在各個類別內進行一些重新分配,但我預計季度之間的變動不會比過去幾年更多。顯然,第一季和第四季是我們業務最清淡的季度,但第二季和第三季是我們業務最關鍵的時期。這些季度的投資水準已經相當穩定。

  • Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

    Scott Andrew Schneeberger - MD and Senior Analyst

  • Appreciate it and best wishes.

    謝謝,祝一切順利。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thanks.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jennifer Lowe with UBS.

    下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的珍妮佛洛。

  • Jennifer Alexandra Swanson Lowe - Analyst

    Jennifer Alexandra Swanson Lowe - Analyst

  • I wanted to -- actually, sort of following up on the last question, but looking at the OpEx. It looks like, in Q1, there was a pretty material step up quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. And I know, Neil, you commented earlier that there's always some shifting. But I know this year's also going to be an investment focus year for you as well. So as we look at the spending in Q1 and the step up year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter in that metric, how much of that should we think of as maybe spending that got -- normally would have happened later in the year that just happened a little earlier versus how much is attached to things like hiring that might persist throughout the course of the year?

    我想——實際上,算是對上一個問題的補充,但要看看營運支出。看起來,第一季環比和同比都有相當大的成長。我知道,尼爾,你之前也說過,總是會有一些改變。但我知道今年對你來說也將是投資重點年。因此,當我們觀察第一季的支出以及該指標同比和環比的增長時,我們應該認為其中有多少是原本應該在一年中晚些時候發生的支出,只是提前了一些;又有多少是與招聘等可能持續一整年的事情相關的支出呢?

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Jennifer, I think the level you saw in Q1 is really reflective of the investments we're making throughout fiscal year 2018. So again, I wouldn't assume that it was necessarily front-end-loaded. But we outlined 4 areas at Investor Day that we really wanted to lean into in 2018 and make significant progress; areas like machine learning and artificial intelligence, our transition to AWS, improving market productivity and things like that. So you should expect and assume that, in Q1, it reflects the higher level baked in throughout the year.

    珍妮弗,我認為你在第一季看到的水平真正反映了我們在整個 2018 財年進行的投資。所以,我還是不會假設它是前期投入過多的。但在投資者日上,我們列出了 4 個我們希望在 2018 年重點發展並取得重大進展的領域;例如機器學習和人工智慧、向 AWS 的過渡、提高市場生產力等等。因此,你應該預期並假設,第一季的數據反映了全年較高的水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Matthew Wells with Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的馬修威爾斯。

  • Matthew Wells - Analyst

    Matthew Wells - Analyst

  • I'm on for Walter Pritchard. And we were at your QBO Connect in San Jose last week. We thought you guys all did a really good job. And we get the sense that you're positioning QuickBooks Desktop to move upstream, essentially targeting SMEs. Can you add anything here? And just maybe comment on how higher ARPU QBE customers are contributing to growth in desktop?

    我來替華特·普里查德上場。上週我們也參加了在聖荷西舉辦的QBO Connect活動。我們覺得你們都做得非常好。我們感覺你們正在將 QuickBooks Desktop 定位為面向高階市場,主要目標客戶是中小企業。還能補充什麼嗎?或許還可以談談高ARPU值的QBE客戶是如何促進桌上型電腦業務成長的?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, thank you, Matthew. And first of all, thank you for coming to QuickBooks Connect. For those who weren't able to make it, it was, I think of the 4 years, perhaps the very best. We had over 5,000 attendees there, over 70,000 streaming live. Energy level amongst the participants was amazing and the speakers were incredible. And also the number of innovations we unveiled was unprecedented for us in any given event. It was a really upbeat year.

    是的,謝謝你,馬修。首先,感謝您參加 QuickBooks Connect。對於那些未能到場的人來說,我認為這四年裡,這或許是最美好的一年。現場有超過 5000 名觀眾,超過 7 萬人在線上觀看直播。與會者的熱情令人驚嘆,演講嘉賓也精彩絕倫。而且,我們推出的創新數量也是我們在任何一次活動中都前所未有的。這是令人振奮的一年。

  • In terms of QuickBooks Enterprise, you're correct. In fact, when Neil walked through total QuickBooks Desktop units down 35%, yet QuickBooks Desktop revenue up 8%, that's really being powered by QuickBooks Enterprise. QuickBooks Enterprise Solutions is a disruptor to the mid-market. It is a fast-growing product in our product lineup. It's priced about 35% cheaper than any of the competitors in that marketplace. And we're going to continue to invest in that product. So I fundamentally see, as we said going forward, desktop units overall will be down in the mid-teens, but you're going to see mid-single-digit growth. And that's going to be powered by QuickBooks Enterprise Solutions, which is our upper-end product for the mid-market.

    就 QuickBooks Enterprise 而言,你的說法是正確的。事實上,當尼爾指出 QuickBooks Desktop 總銷量下降了 35%,但 QuickBooks Desktop 收入卻增加了 8% 時,這實際上是由 QuickBooks Enterprise 推動的。QuickBooks 企業解決方案對中階市場來說是一個顛覆性的產品。它是我們產品線中成長最快的產品之一。它的價格比市場上任何競爭對手的價格便宜約 35%。我們將繼續投資該產品。因此,從根本上來說,正如我們之前所說,未來桌上型電腦整體銷售將下降十幾個百分點,但你會看到個位數中段的成長。而這一切都將由 QuickBooks 企業解決方案提供支持,這是我們面向中階市場的高階產品。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Siti Panigrahi of Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Siti Panigrahi。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • This is (inaudible) for Siti. I just wanted to see if you could comment on the Quickbooks Online (inaudible) services revenue, how the payroll and the payments part of this is trending?

    這是給Siti的(聽不清楚)。我想請您談談 QuickBooks Online(聽不清楚)服務的收入狀況,以及其中的薪資和付款部分的發展趨勢?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • I'm sorry, I think -- you dropped in and out a little bit. Did you ask about how payroll and payments are doing in QuickBooks Online?

    抱歉,我想──你斷斷續續地來了幾次。你問過 QuickBooks Online 的薪資和付款功能是如何運作的嗎?

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Well, we continue to be encouraged by the performance of our payroll and payments business overall. Those that are attached to the QuickBooks Online platform are accelerating at fast growth rates. Payroll is in the 20%-plus range, and the payroll and the payments is in the plus 30% range. We continue to get stronger performance in getting the payments and payroll stand-alone products over onto the QBO platform. In fact, we introduced some innovations with GoPayments. As you may remember, it was our stand-alone mobile offering but it was off on a different technology stack. We've now had that ported over so the technology now works with QuickBooks Online. But you should hear confidence and enthusiasm coming out of our payroll and payments ecosystem. We still have more work to do, but a lot of the innovation we talked about, both internally and then externally, QuickBooks Connect was focused in these areas.

    整體而言,我們的薪資和支付業務表現依然令人鼓舞。使用 QuickBooks Online 平台的企業正以極快的速度成長。薪資支出佔比在 20% 以上,薪資和付款總額佔比在 30% 以上。我們在將支付和薪資獨立產品遷移到 QBO 平台方面持續取得更強勁的進展。事實上,我們透過 GoPayments 引入了一些創新。您可能還記得,這是我們獨立的行動產品,但它採用的是不同的技術堆疊。我們現在已經完成了移植,所以這項技術現在可以與 QuickBooks Online 相容了。但您應該能感受到我們薪資和支付體系中流露出的信心和熱情。我們還有更多工作要做,但我們討論的許多創新,無論是內部的還是外部的,QuickBooks Connect 都集中在這些領域。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jim MacDonald with First Analysis.

    下一個問題來自 First Analysis 公司的 Jim MacDonald。

  • James Robert MacDonald - MD

    James Robert MacDonald - MD

  • Yes. Just following up on that last question. What are the other prospects or possibly other services or other revenue streams in the other category for QuickBooks Online in addition to payroll and payments?

    是的。我只是想就最後一個問題做個後續說明。除了薪資和支付之外,QuickBooks Online 在其他類別中還有哪些前景、其他服務或其他收入來源?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Jim, are you referring to something on the fact sheet or are you asking theoretically, are there other things we have in the pipeline beyond payroll and payments?

    吉姆,你指的是情況說明書上的內容,還是只是理論上問,除了工資和付款之外,我們是否還有其他正在籌備的項目?

  • James Robert MacDonald - MD

    James Robert MacDonald - MD

  • Right, that could be significant going forward.

    沒錯,這可能會對未來產生重大影響。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Well, I think there's a combination. Payroll and payments have a lot of headroom. We've needed to get our execution things straightened out, and I feel we've got some run rate there. QuickBooks Capital is one that we've talked about, we're excited about. As we start to really double down on things like electronic invoicing or e-invoicing, we're seeing real benefit to customers. With the innovation we introduced last week at QuickBooks Connect, it used to take 33 clicks and a 48-hour approval period to get your invoice electronic-enabled, pay-enabled. Now it's 3 clicks and 1 minute.

    是的。嗯,我覺得是兩者兼具。薪資和支付方面還有很大的調整空間。我們需要理順執行的問題,我覺得我們在這方面已經取得了一些進展。QuickBooks Capital是我們之前討論過的公司,我們對其充滿期待。隨著我們開始真正加強推廣電子發票等技術,我們看到客戶從中獲得了真正的好處。憑藉我們上週在 QuickBooks Connect 上推出的創新技術,以前需要點擊 33 次並等待 48 小時的審批時間才能使您的發票具備電子化和支付功能。現在只需點擊 3 次,耗時 1 分鐘。

  • And so if you just look at payroll payments, QuickBooks Connect and then the third-party services with all the different apps being built on the ecosystem, we will start to see what the next opportunities might be. But right now, I would say payroll and payments and probably QuickBooks Connect would be the place that I'd put my attention. (inaudible).

    因此,如果我們只關注工資支付、QuickBooks Connect 以及基於該生態系統構建的各種第三方應用程序,我們就會開始看到下一個機會可能是什麼。但就目前而言,我認為工資和支付以及 QuickBooks Connect 應該是我關注的重點。(聽不清楚)

  • James Robert MacDonald - MD

    James Robert MacDonald - MD

  • Great. And in terms of the third quarter number of days for TurboTax, is that going to show a similar decline versus the increase in the second quarter?

    偉大的。那麼,TurboTax 第三季的使用天數是否會像第二季一樣出現類似的下降趨勢?

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. It's a day shift between the 2 quarters.

    是的。這是兩個季度之間的白班。

  • James Robert MacDonald - MD

    James Robert MacDonald - MD

  • Great. Best wishes, Neil.

    偉大的。祝你一切順利,尼爾。

  • R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

    R. Neil Williams - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Sterling Auty with JPMorgan.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。

  • Jackson Edmund Ader - Analyst

    Jackson Edmund Ader - Analyst

  • This is Jackson Ader on for Sterling tonight. One question from our side. If -- how should we be thinking about TurboTax Live versus make -- versus the investments that you've made in SmartLook? How do those compare and contrast?

    今晚為史特林隊出戰的是傑克森·阿德爾。我們這邊有一個問題。如果——我們應該如何看待 TurboTax Live 與 SmartLook 之間的差異——以及您在 SmartLook 上的投資?它們之間有何異同?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes. Thanks, Jack. I'm glad you asked this question because I think I've contributed to some confusion out there, and we probably haven't been clear. Think of SmartLook as the technology that enables TurboTax Live to happen. TurboTax Live is end-to-end value proposition. It's not only the TurboTax core product, it's an expert on the other end and it's the ability to connect through a video, a one-way video and have that sort of interchange between the customer and the expert. That interchange happens over a piece of technology we call SmartLook. So SmartLook was the codename before we got this end-to-end value proposition launched. It's really the technology that enables one-way video, but the overall bundle is called TurboTax Live.

    是的。謝謝你,傑克。很高興你問了這個問題,因為我覺得我可能造成了一些誤解,我們可能沒有解釋清楚。可以將 SmartLook 看作是使 TurboTax Live 得以實現的技術。TurboTax Live 提供端對端的價值主張。這不僅是 TurboTax 的核心產品,而是另一端的專家,以及透過視訊(單向視訊)進行連接的能力,從而實現客戶與專家之間的這種交流。這種互動是透過我們稱為 SmartLook 的技術實現的。所以,在我們推出這個端到端價值主張之前,SmartLook 是它的代號。真正實現單向視訊的技術是TurboTax Live,但整個軟體包的名稱是TurboTax Live。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Nandan Amladi with Deutsche Bank.

    下一個問題來自德意志銀行的南丹‧阿姆拉迪。

  • Nandan Amladi - Research Analyst

    Nandan Amladi - Research Analyst

  • So back on the comment, Brad, about QuickBooks Enterprise. As you build out the road map, you have a new version of the API coming on QuickBooks Online, how do you balance the future road map with QuickBooks Enterprise relative to QuickBooks Online and that online ecosystem?

    布拉德,回到你剛才關於 QuickBooks Enterprise 的評論。在製定路線圖的過程中,QuickBooks Online 即將推出新版本的 API,您如何平衡 QuickBooks Enterprise 與 QuickBooks Online 及其線上生態系統的未來路線圖?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • Yes, Nandan, thank you for the question. I would tell you we're going down a parallel path. We're continuing to build out the feature functionality in QuickBooks Online. And as we do that, we hope to ultimately have a replacement, or an alternative rather, for QuickBooks Enterprise in the online version. That's going to take us some time. In the meantime, there's real customer problems in the market that aren't getting solved well by current mid-market solutions. And we're not abandoning the desktop. So we're continuing to make the appropriate investments in the enterprise product to make sure it's got the highest Net Promoter Score while we're making the investment Neil talked about to strengthen QBO, QuickBooks Online. And an acquisition we recently did was an acquisition of a company that provides sales and use tax. And that's one of the key features that you need in an enterprise-level product. And so that's just an example of what we're doing to build out that functionality in QuickBooks Online.

    是的,南丹,謝謝你的提問。我會告訴你,我們走的是一條平行線。我們正在不斷完善 QuickBooks Online 的功能。隨著我們不斷努力,我們希望最終能夠找到 QuickBooks Enterprise 線上版本的替代品,或者更確切地說,是一個替代方案。這需要一些時間。同時,市場上存在一些客戶實際遇到的問題,而目前的中階市場解決方案並不能很好地解決這些問題。我們並沒有放棄桌面系統。因此,我們將繼續對企業產品進行適當的投資,以確保其擁有最高的淨推薦值,同時我們也進行 Neil 所說的投資,以加強 QBO(QuickBooks Online)。我們最近完成的一項收購是收購了一家提供銷售和使用稅服務的公司。而這正是企業級產品所需的關鍵特性之一。這只是我們在 QuickBooks Online 中建立該功能的一個例子。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, I'm not showing any further questions. Would you like to close with any additional remarks?

    女士們先生們,我不再回答任何問題了。還有什麼補充說明嗎?

  • Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

    Brad D. Smith - Chairman, CEO & President

  • James, I would. First of all, I want to thank everyone for the questions. I know this is one of those weeks where we've got a lot of things coming up, for those of you in the United States, with the holiday. I did want to just go back and thank the Lone Ranger here, Neil Williams. I've often joked that, over the years together, it's been like Batman and Robin, and he's the one that drives the Batmobile. It's just been a real pleasure and a joy to sit by him and to help navigate through this business model transition together and to learn from him. And his sense of humor and his wit, as you all know, is unparalleled.

    詹姆斯,我會的。首先,我要感謝大家提出的問題。我知道接下來的一週有很多事情要忙,尤其是對身在美國的你們來說,因為有假期。我真想回去感謝這位獨行俠——尼爾威廉斯。我常開玩笑說,這些年來我們就像蝙蝠俠和羅賓一樣,而他就是駕駛蝙蝠車的那個人。能和他一起工作,一起應對這次商業模式轉型,並向他學習,真是一件非常愉快的事。如大家所知,他的幽默感和機智無人能及。

  • And I'm also delighted to see that not only has he left us better than he found us, but he really produced a strong leadership bench. And in that bench came Michelle and Michelle is just an outstanding individual. She is a great human being. She's an excellent financial expert. She's a great thought partner. And I believe that come February, with the knowledge transfer that they've executed since August, we're really going to hit the ground running.

    我也很高興地看到,他不僅讓我們比他接手時更好,而且還培養了一群強大的領導人才。而米歇爾則坐在了替補席上,米歇爾是一位非常傑出的人物。她是一位偉大的人。她是一位非常優秀的金融專家。她是一位很棒的思想夥伴。我相信,到了二月份,憑藉他們自八月以來進行的知識轉移,我們將真正迅速進入工作狀態。

  • And I will also tell you all, you should rest easy, because he's taken the Batmobile keys and he's handed them to Michelle. So once again, I'm not in the driver's seat. I get the chance to sit in the cockpit, but there's no place I'd rather be, whether it's Neil or Michelle. So we tip our hat to you one more time, my friend. You're just a good human being and a great friend, and we love you. And you'll be forever in our Hall of Fame here. And Michelle, we can't wait for you to step into his shoes and show what they can do with the next set of dancing legs. So we're going to be ready to rock and roll. Neil's dancing legs were like mine; he tended to step on my toes. But I understand that you're going to bring a whole new level of professionalism. So that's it. And for everybody else, we want to wish you a happy and safe holiday season. And we look forward to speaking with you soon.

    我還要告訴大家,你們可以放心了,因為他已經把蝙蝠車的鑰匙交給米歇爾了。所以,我又一次沒能掌握主動權。我有機會坐在駕駛艙裡,但我最想待的地方還是尼爾和米歇爾身邊。朋友,我們再次向你致敬。你真是個好人,也是個好朋友,我們愛你。你將永遠被載入我們的名人堂。米歇爾,我們迫不及待想看到你接過他的鞋子,向大家展示下一雙舞腿能帶來怎樣的精彩表演。所以,我們已經準備好大幹一場了。尼爾跳舞時的腿跟我的腿一樣,他常常踩到我的腳趾。但我明白,你會帶來一種全新的專業水準。就是這樣。對於其他所有人,我們祝福你們假期快樂平安。我們期待盡快與您聯繫。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call. You may all disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。你們可以斷開連結了。