直覺電腦 (INTU) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2017 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

午安.我叫拉蒂夫，我將擔任本次會議的主持人。在此，我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2017 財年第四季電話會議。（操作說明）

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jerry Natoli, Intuit's Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Mr. Natoli?

接下來，我將把電話交給 Intuit 的財務副總裁兼財務主管 Jerry Natoli。納托利先生？

Thanks, Latif. Good afternoon, and welcome to Intuit's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2007 (sic) [2017] Conference Call. I'm here with Brad Smith, our Chairman and CEO; and Neil Williams, our CFO.

謝謝你，拉蒂夫。下午好，歡迎參加 Intuit 2007 財年（原文如此）[2017 財年]第四季電話會議。我今天和我們的董事長兼執行長布拉德史密斯，以及我們的財務長尼爾威廉斯在一起。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for fiscal 2016 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致 Intuit 的表現與我們的預期有重大差異。您可以查看我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2016 財年的 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。所有這些文件都可以在 Intuit 公司網站 intuit.com 的投資者關係頁面上找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We've reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends.

這些發言中的一些數字是按非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 編製的。我們在今天的新聞稿中對可比較的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明，否則所有成長率均指目前期間與去年同期相比的成長率，業務指標及相關成長率均指全球業務指標。本次電話會議結束後，我們將在網站上提供我們準備好的演講稿和補充財務資訊。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

這樣，我就把電話交給布萊德了。

All right. Thanks, Jerry, and thanks to all of you for joining us. As you read in our press release today, we've announced a CFO succession plan. Neil has served as CFO since January 2008 and plans to step down at the end of January 2018. I'm pleased to share that Michelle Clatterbuck will assume the role of Chief Financial Officer on February 1, 2018. It has been a well-crafted succession plan that we'll cover in a few minutes, but let's start with the business.

好的。謝謝傑瑞，也謝謝各位的參與。正如您今天在我們的新聞稿中所讀到的，我們已經公佈了財務長繼任計畫。Neil 自 2008 年 1 月起擔任財務官，並計劃於 2018 年 1 月底卸任。我很高興地宣布，Michelle Clatterbuck 將於 2018 年 2 月 1 日就任財務長一職。這是一個精心製定的繼任計劃，我們稍後會詳細介紹，但讓我們先從業務本身說起。

We had an excellent fourth quarter and a strong finish to fiscal year 2017. Fourth quarter revenue grew 12%, and full year revenue grew 10%. We're encouraged by the accelerating momentum in small business, including a continued strength in both our QuickBooks Online subscribers and online ecosystem revenue growth. We're also pleased with our results in both consumer and professional tax, which delivered at the high end of our expectations in a complicated tax season.

我們第四季業績出色，2017財年也取得了強勁的收官成績。第四季營收成長12%，全年營收成長10%。我們對小型企業的加速發展勢頭感到鼓舞，包括 QuickBooks Online 訂閱用戶數量和線上生態系統收入的持續強勁增長。我們對消費者稅和專業稅的業績也感到滿意，在複雜的稅務季中，我們的業績達到了預期的高水準。

Across the company, we continue to innovate and improve our product experiences to deliver meaningful benefits for our customers. For example, we improved the end-to-end experience for QBO customers, which resulted in a 22 point increase in our Net Promoter Score. We solved important pain points for self-employed business operators, such as the ability to separate personal and business expenses, send invoices and receive payments and track their mileage. This led to a quadrupling of our QuickBooks Self-Employed customer base.

公司上下不斷創新，改善產品體驗，為客戶帶來實際的好處。例如，我們改善了 QBO 客戶的端到端體驗，從而使我們的淨推薦值提高了 22 分。我們解決了自僱人士面臨的重要痛點，例如區分個人支出和業務支出、發送發票和接收付款以及追蹤里程數。這使得我們的 QuickBooks 自僱人士客戶群成長了四倍。

We expanded our SmartLook video chat capability to help our TurboTax online customers answer that one nagging question that could cause them to abandon the product. Customers who use SmartLook rated their care experience nearly 20 points higher than those who did not. Our One Intuit Ecosystem has evolved into an active ecosystem, creating greater value for our customers while building new sources of competitive advantage for Intuit. Let me share just a couple of examples.

我們擴展了 SmartLook 視訊聊天功能，以幫助 TurboTax 線上用戶解答那個可能讓他們放棄該產品的惱人問題。使用 SmartLook 的顧客對他們的護理體驗的評分比未使用該服務的顧客高出近 20 分。我們的 One Intuit 生態系統已經發展成為一個活躍的生態系統，在為客戶創造更大價值的同時，也為 Intuit 建立了新的競爭優勢來源。我舉幾個例子。

First of all, our new QBO matchmaking platform is connecting small businesses with the right accountant. We know that 89% of small businesses believe they're more successful when they work with an accountant. And this year, 53% of our small business customers are now doing so. That is a 10 point increase versus last year. This has the potential to be a key driver of small business success and a catalyst for Intuit's growth over the long term.

首先，我們全新的 QBO 匹配平台正在將小型企業與合適的會計師聯繫起來。我們知道，89%的小企業認為與會計師合作能讓他們更成功。今年，我們53%的小型企業客戶都採取了這種做法。比去年增加了10個百分點。這有可能成為小型企業成功的關鍵驅動力，並成為 Intuit 長期成長的催化劑。

Second, we're helping accountants grow their practices, delivering 3x more client leads than we did just 1 year ago. Third, our TurboTax and QuickBooks Self-Employed bundle is putting more money in our self-employed customers' pockets, eliminating work and making it drop-dead simple to track and deduct business expense. As a result, we're generating more than $4,300 in tax savings for self-employed customers, which is 8% of their income on average. We'll share more about our plans to further strengthen and accelerate our One Intuit Ecosystem at our upcoming Investor Day in October, but now let's talk about our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2017 results, and we'll start with small business.

其次，我們正在幫助會計師發展業務，提供的客戶線索比一年前增加了 3 倍。第三，我們的 TurboTax 和 QuickBooks 自僱版套裝讓我們的自僱客戶賺到更多錢，減少了工作量，讓追蹤和扣除業務支出變得極其簡單。因此，我們為自營客戶節省了超過 4,300 美元的稅款，平均相當於他們收入的 8%。我們將在 10 月的投資者日上分享更多關於如何進一步加強和加速我們的 One Intuit 生態系統的計劃，但現在讓我們來談談我們 2017 年第四季度和全年的業績，我們先從小企業開始。

We delivered another strong year, with subscriber growth continuing at a rapid pace and online ecosystem revenue accelerating. We added over 870,000 QuickBooks Online customers in fiscal 2017. That's twice as many as we added in fiscal 2016. We finished the year with over 2.3 million customers, driving subscriber growth to 58%, up from 41% last year. We continue to deliver strong QBO growth in the U.S. and international markets.

我們又迎來了一個強勁的年份，用戶成長持續快速，線上生態系統收入也在加速成長。2017 財年，我們新增了超過 87 萬名 QuickBooks Online 用戶。這比我們在 2016 財年新增的數量翻了一番。我們在年底擁有超過 230 萬客戶，用戶成長率達 58%，高於去年的 41%。我們在美國和國際市場持續保持強勁的QBO成長。

Our U.S. subscriber base grew 53% year-over-year to nearly 1.9 million subs, up from 40% growth last year. Outside the U.S., our subscriber base grew 75% year-over-year to over 500,000 subs, up from 45% growth last year. We've also seen our Net Promoter Scores improve in every country year-over-year, giving us confidence that our international growth formula is working.

我們的美國用戶數量年增 53%，達到近 190 萬用戶，高於去年的 40% 增幅。在美國以外，我們的訂閱用戶數量年增 75%，超過 50 萬，高於去年的 45%。我們也看到，我們在每個國家的淨推薦值都逐年提高，這讓我們相信我們的國際成長模式是有效的。

As a reminder, our playbook when entering a new market is to focus on product market fit first, then we lean heavily into marketing to drive subscriber growth. We continue to feel good about our position in Canada, the U.K. and Australia, surpassing the 100,000 subscriber mark in all 3 countries this year. Our teams in France, Brazil and India are working hard to reach product market fit in their respective countries. We'll share more on our progress in the coming quarters.

再次提醒大家，我們進入新市場時的策略是先關注產品與市場的契合度，然後大力進行行銷活動以推動用戶成長。我們對自己在加拿大、英國和澳洲的地位依然感到滿意，今年在這三個國家，我們的訂閱用戶都超過了 10 萬。我們在法國、巴西和印度的團隊正在努力使產品在其各自國家實現市場契合。我們將在接下來的幾季分享更多進展。

Within QuickBooks Online, self-employed subscribers grew to approximately 390,000. That's up from 360,000 last quarter and 85,000 just 1 year ago. Our bundled self-employed offering in TurboTax contributed approximately 170,000 subscribers to this total.

QuickBooks Online 的自營用戶成長至約 39 萬人。這比上季度的 36 萬和一年前的 8.5 萬都有所增加。我們在 TurboTax 中提供的自僱人士捆綁式服務為此總數貢獻了約 17 萬用戶。

Summing it up, our momentum in QBO subscriber growth continued to drive top line revenue, with online ecosystem revenue growth accelerating to 33%. That's up from 30% last quarter. We expect subscriber growth to continue north of 40%, and we now expect online ecosystem revenue to grow more than 30% over the next few years. That is up from our previous guidance of 25% to 30%.

總而言之，QBO 用戶成長動能持續推動營收成長，線上生態系統營收成長加速至 33%。比上季的30%有所上升。我們預計用戶成長率將繼續保持在 40% 以上，並且我們現在預計未來幾年線上生態系統收入將成長超過 30%。這比我們之前預測的 25% 至 30% 有所上調。

Turning to tax. Consumer Tax revenue finished the year up 9% in a complex season that was defined by below-normal IRS returns growth and a highly competitive environment in the free category. We performed well with our pay customers driving our revenue growth this season. Our team is already hard at work reimagining our tax business and building the next wave of innovation to better serve our customers in both the free and the paid segment. There is no question there is still a ton of opportunity in this business, especially as we leverage technology to provide even more value to our customers. We are very excited as we look ahead to next season, and we'll share more with you when we see you at Investor Day.

轉而討論稅務問題。在今年這個複雜的時期，消費者稅收收入增長了 9%，這主要歸因於美國國稅局申報收入增長低於正常水平以及免費類別的競爭非常激烈。本季度，付費客戶推動了我們的營收成長，我們表現出色。我們的團隊已經在努力重新構想我們的稅務業務，並建立下一波創新浪潮，以便更好地服務我們的免費和付費客戶。毫無疑問，這個產業仍然蘊藏著巨大的機遇，尤其是在我們利用科技為客戶創造更多價值的情況下。展望下一賽季，我們感到非常興奮，屆時我們將在投資者日與您分享更多資訊。

On the ProConnect side, revenue also finished the year at the top end of our guidance range. We continue to focus on multiservice accounting firms that do both books and taxes. This is in service to driving our accountants' customer success and growing our small business ecosystem.

ProConnect方面，營收也達到了我們預期範圍的上限。我們繼續專注於提供簿記和稅務等多項服務的會計事務所。這樣做是為了幫助我們的客戶成功，並發展我們的小型企業生態系統。

Taking up the nose of the plane, let me share some context for where we're headed as a company. Over the past 9 months, our senior leadership team has invested significant time completing an extensive outside-in, future-back exploration to set the foundation for our next chapter of growth. The end result is the most comprehensive collection of market and customer insights we have ever amassed. And this has led to a complete refresh of our company's game plan to win, from the company's mission all the way down to the metrics.

首先，讓我從機頭的角度，跟大家分享我們公司未來的發展方向。在過去的 9 個月裡，我們的高階領導團隊投入了大量時間，完成了廣泛的由外而內、由前而後的探索，為我們下一個成長篇章奠定了基礎。最終成果是我們迄今為止收集到的最全面的市場和客戶洞察數據。這促使我們對公司的勝利策略進行了徹底的調整，從公司使命到衡量指標都進行了全面革新。

Our One Intuit Ecosystem strategy, as we're calling it, will power the next chapter of growth. It capitalizes on our tens of millions of active customers and the vast amounts of data that we steward on their behalf. When you match that data with our leading technology and our machine-learning capabilities, we are able to deliver deeply personalized experiences through a trusted open platform and create indispensable connections not only between people, but between products, and we can do it in a way that is not easily matched by our rivals.

我們稱之為「一個 Intuit 生態系統」的策略，將推動公司開啟下一個成長章節。它充分利用了我們數千萬活躍客戶以及我們代表他們管理的大量數據。將這些數據與我們領先的技術和機器學習能力相結合，我們就能透過值得信賴的開放平台提供深度個人化的體驗，並在人與人之間以及產品之間建立不可或缺的聯繫，而且我們能夠以競爭對手難以企及的方式做到這一點。

As new participants enter this Intuit ecosystem, the value increases for everyone, unleashing the power of many for the prosperity of one. In support of our refresh strategy, we have made through deliberate decisions to target investment in several key areas during fiscal 2018. You'll hear more about these investments from Neil in a minute. We expect these initiatives to further accelerate our long-term revenue growth.

隨著新參與者加入 Intuit 生態系統，每個人的價值都會增加，從而釋放出眾人的力量，促進個人的繁榮。為了支持我們的更新策略，我們經過深思熟慮，決定在 2018 財年將投資重點放在幾個關鍵領域。稍後尼爾會詳細介紹這些投資。我們預計這些舉措將進一步加速我們的長期收入成長。

So with that said, let me hand it over to Neil to walk you through the financial details.

那麼，接下來就交給尼爾來為大家詳細介紹財務細節。

Thanks, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2017, we delivered revenue of $842 million, up 12% year-over-year; a GAAP operating loss of $10 million versus a $56 million loss a year ago; non-GAAP operating income of $78 million versus $36 million last year; GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.09 versus a loss of $0.16 last year; and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.20, up from $0.08 last year.

謝謝你，布拉德，大家下午好。2017 財年第四季，我們實現營收 8.42 億美元，年增 12%；GAAP 營業虧損 1,000 萬美元，而去年同期虧損 5,600 萬美元；非 GAAP 營業收入 7,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,600 萬美元；非 GAAP 營業收入 7,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,600 萬美元；非 GAAP 營業收入 7,800 萬美元，而去年同期為 3,600 萬美元；稀釋後每股收益 0.20 美元，高於去年同期的 0.08 美元。

You'll note that our GAAP earnings per share includes the tax impact of early adoption of the accounting standard update for share-based compensation. This added $0.13 to our GAAP earnings for the quarter and $0.28 for the full year. For full fiscal 2017, we delivered revenue of $5.2 billion, up 10% year-over-year; GAAP operating income of $1.4 billion, up 12% versus a year ago; non-GAAP operating income of $1.7 billion, also up 12% versus last year; GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.72 versus $3.69 last year. As a reminder, our GAAP results in fiscal 2016 included a net gain of $0.65 per share from the sale of discontinued operations. And our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $4.41, up from $3.78 last year or an increase of 17%.

您會注意到，我們的 GAAP 每股盈餘包括提前採用股份支付會計準則更新所帶來的稅務影響。這使我們本季的 GAAP 收益增加了 0.13 美元，全年收益增加了 0.28 美元。2017 財年全年，公司營收達 52 億美元，年增 10%；GAAP 營業收入達 14 億美元，年增 12%；非 GAAP 營業收入達 17 億美元，年增 12%；GAAP 稀釋後每股收益為 3.72 美元，而去年為 3.69 美元。提醒一下，我們 2016 財年的 GAAP 業績包括出售已終止經營業務所得的每股淨收益 0.65 美元。我們的非GAAP稀釋後每股收益為4.41美元，高於去年的3.78美元，增幅達17%。

Turning to the business segments. Total Small Business revenue grew 14% for the quarter and 13% for the year. QuickBooks Online subscriber growth remained strong and we exceeded our guidance for the quarter and the full year, reaching 2,383,000 subscribers, up 58% year-over-year. TurboTax was a significant channel for QuickBooks Self-Employed for the year, accounting for 11 points of QBO subscriber growth, a great example of the power of the One Intuit Ecosystem that Brad just mentioned.

接下來我們來看業務區。本季小型企業總收入成長了 14%，全年成長了 13%。QuickBooks Online 用戶成長依然強勁，我們超越了季度和全年的預期，用戶數量達到 2,383,000，年成長 58%。今年，TurboTax 是 QuickBooks Self-Employed 的一個重要管道，為 QBO 帶來了 11 個百分點的用戶成長，這很好地體現了 Brad 剛才提到的 Intuit 生態系統的強大力量。

Small Business online ecosystem revenue accelerated to 33% in the fourth quarter and grew 30% for the year. This is above the high end of the 25% to 30% growth range we've talked about and is driven by continued growth of online accounting revenue. Our Online Payroll and payments businesses remain healthy, growing revenue 21% and 12% for the year, respectively.

第四季小型企業線上生態系統營收加速成長至 33%，全年成長 30%。這高於我們之前討論過的 25% 到 30% 的成長範圍的上限，並且是由線上會計收入的持續成長所推動的。我們的線上薪資和支付業務依然保持健康發展，今年的收入分別成長了 21% 和 12%。

As Brad mentioned, our outlook over the next few years calls for over 40% growth in QBO subs. We expect online ecosystem revenue to grow better than 30%. And that subscriber growth is on top of the 58% increase we posted in fiscal 2017, demonstrating the confidence we have in our strategy. Our Small Business desktop ecosystem, total revenue grew 8% for the year despite desktop units being down 8%. For fiscal 2018, we expect QuickBooks Desktop units to decline low double digits and desktop ecosystem revenue to be up mid-single digits. That revenue growth is driven by continued strength in our QuickBooks Enterprise business. Consumer Tax revenue was up 9% for the year, reflecting 2 points of unit growth, and ProConnect revenue grew 2% for the year.

正如布拉德所提到的，我們預計未來幾年 QBO 用戶數量將成長超過 40%。我們預計線上生態系統收入成長將超過 30%。而且，這個用戶成長是在我們在 2017 財年實現 58% 成長的基礎上實現的，這表明我們對自己的策略充滿信心。儘管桌上型電腦銷量下降了 8%，但我們的小型企業桌上型電腦生態系統全年總收入仍成長了 8%。我們預計 2018 財年 QuickBooks Desktop 的銷售量將出現兩位數的下滑，而桌面生態系的營收將出現個位數的中段成長。營收成長主要得益於 QuickBooks 企業版業務的持續強勁表現。消費者稅收收入本年度增長了 9%，相當於單位增長了 2 個百分點；ProConnect 收入本年度增長了 2%。

Turning to our financial principals. We continue to take a disciplined approach to capital management. With approximately $800 million in cash and investments on our balance sheet, our first priority is investing for customer growth. Our goal is to drive double-digit revenue growth and to grow operating income faster than revenue. We return cash that we can't invest profitably in the business to shareholders via both share repurchases and dividends. We repurchased over $360 million of shares in the fourth quarter and over $830 million for the year. Approximately $1.5 billion remains on our authorization. We returned approximately 85% of our free cash flow to shareholders last year and more than 100% over the last 5 years. That level is not sustainable, so you'll notice the share count guidance for FY '18 reflects a slightly more moderate buyback program than in recent years. We expect to be in the market each quarter, and we'll continue to keep an eye on investment alternatives and overall market conditions as we manage our program.

回到我們的財務原則。我們將繼續採取嚴謹的資本管理方式。我們資產負債表上擁有約 8 億美元的現金和投資，我們的首要任務是投資於客戶成長。我們的目標是實現兩位數的營收成長，並使營業收入的成長速度超過營收成長速度。我們將無法在業務中進行獲利性投資的現金透過股票回購和分紅的方式返還給股東。我們在第四季回購了超過 3.6 億美元的股票，全年回購了超過 8.3 億美元的股票。我們授權的資金還剩約15億美元。去年，我們將大約 85% 的自由現金流返還給了股東，過去 5 年的回饋比例超過 100%。這種水平是不可持續的，因此你會注意到 2018 財年的股份數量預期反映出比近年來更為溫和的回購計劃。我們預計每季都會進行市場投資，並且在管理我們的專案時，我們將繼續專注於投資選擇和整體市場狀況。

In fiscal 2018, we expect to pay a cash dividend of $1.56 per share, with the first dividend of $0.39 per share payable on October 18, 2017. This represents a 15% increase versus last year. As Brad mentioned, we're reallocating over 10% of our annual spend to strengthen our investment in several key priorities over the next 3 years, including increasing our capability in artificial intelligence and machine learning, accelerating our transition to Amazon Web Services, enhancing our brand and marketing effectiveness globally and enabling our engineering organization to increase effectiveness and efficiency. We expect these initiatives to set us up to deliver strong growth in the coming years. Even with these investments, we expect our operating margin to expand modestly in fiscal 2018.

2018 財年，我們預計將派發每股 1.56 美元的現金股息，其中第一筆股息為每股 0.39 美元，將於 2017 年 10 月 18 日支付。比去年增長了15%。正如布拉德所提到的，我們將把年度支出的 10% 以上重新分配，以加強未來 3 年在幾個關鍵優先事項上的投資，包括提高我們在人工智慧和機器學習方面的能力，加速向亞馬遜網路服務的過渡，提升我們在全球的品牌和行銷效果，並使我們的工程組織能夠提高效率和效能。我們預計這些舉措將為我們未來幾年的強勁成長奠定基礎。即使進行了這些投資，我們預計 2018 財年的營業利潤率也將小幅成長。

Our full year fiscal 2018 guidance includes QBO subscribers of 3.275 million to 3.375 million, total company revenue growth of 9% to 11%, GAAP earnings per share of $4.00 to $4.10 per share and non-GAAP earnings per share of $4.90 to $5. Our Q1 fiscal 2018 guidance includes revenue growth of 8% to 11%, a GAAP loss per share of $0.17 to $0.19 and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.03 to $0.05. You can find our Q1 and fiscal 2018 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet.

我們對 2018 財年全年業績的預期包括：QBO 用戶數為 327.5 萬至 337.5 萬，公司總收入增長 9% 至 11%，GAAP 每股收益為 4.00 美元至 4.10 美元，非 GAAP 每股收益為 4.90 美元至 5 美元。我們對 2018 財年第一季的業績預期包括：營收成長 8% 至 11%，GAAP 每股虧損 0.17 美元至 0.19 美元，非 GAAP 每股盈餘 0.03 美元至 0.05 美元。您可以在我們的新聞稿和情況說明書中找到我們 2018 年第一季和 2018 財年的業績指引詳情。

We're making a few changes to our segment reporting in fiscal 2018. Our principle is to align our segments with our core customers and business partners. We are creating a consumer segment by combining our consumer ecosystem offering, which includes our Mint business with the Consumer Tax segment. We are renaming the Small Business segment as Small Business & Self-Employed and renaming ProConnect as the Strategic Partner segment. This segment will manage our Professional Tax offerings while also focusing on partners instrumental to the success of our ecosystem. All these changes are reflected on our fact sheet.

我們將在 2018 財政年度對分部報告進行一些調整。我們的原則是使我們的各個業務板塊與我們的核心客戶和業務夥伴保持一致。我們正在透過將我們的消費者生態系統產品（包括我們的 Mint 業務）與消費者稅務部門結合，來創建一個消費者細分市場。我們將小型企業板塊更名為小型企業和自僱者板塊，並將 ProConnect 更名為策略合作夥伴板塊。該部門將負責管理我們的專業稅務服務，同時專注於對我們生態系統成功至關重要的合作夥伴。所有這些變更都已反映在我們的情況說明書中。

On a personal note, over the last several years, it's been a priority for me and my team to think about our long-term strategy, and that includes finding and nurturing awesome talent. As we announced today, I'll be stepping down in January. I'm really confident in Michelle. She thinks and acts like a Chief Operating Officer and demonstrates a unique blend of partnering and influencing skills that are backed by deep domain expertise. She brings credibility as a strategic thinker, who connects dots that others often don't see. I look forward to working with her over the next 5 months to ensure a smooth transition.

就我個人而言，在過去的幾年裡，我和我的團隊一直把思考我們的長期策略當作首要任務，這其中包括尋找和培養優秀人才。正如我們今天宣布的那樣，我將於一月份卸任。我對米歇爾非常有信心。她像營運長一樣思考和行動，展現出獨特的合作和影響力技能，並擁有深厚的專業知識。她是一位具有戰略思維的可靠人士，能夠將其他人往往看不到的事物聯繫起來。我期待在接下來的五個月與她合作，以確保平穩過渡。

And with that, I'll turn it back to Brad to close.

那麼，接下來就交給布萊德來結束今天的節目了。

Thank you, Neil. I know our CFO transition isn't official until February, but I wanted to take this moment to express my sincere admiration and appreciation for all that you've contributed over the past decade. Our financial foundation has never been stronger. We successfully navigated a business model transition. We're posting double-digit revenue growth, expanding margins and we have a strong investment-grade rating. Your commitment to recruiting and developing top talent has created a deep bench of strong financial leaders, which makes a seamless transition of our leadership team possible.

謝謝你，尼爾。我知道我們的財務長交接要到二月才正式進行，但我想藉此機會表達我對您過去十年所做貢獻的真誠欽佩和感謝。我們的財務基礎從未如此穩固。我們成功完成了業務模式轉型。我們實現了兩位數的營收成長，利潤率不斷擴大，並且擁有強勁的投資等級信用評級。你們致力於招募和培養頂尖人才，打造了一支實力雄厚的財務領導隊伍，這使得我們領導團隊的平穩過渡成為可能。

And Michelle, she has risen to every occasion at every step along the journey, consistently delivering outstanding performance across multiple strategic leadership roles and multiple business units over the past 14 years. We're excited to have her succeed you as our next CFO in February.

而米歇爾，在過去的 14 年裡，在職業生涯的每一步，都出色地完成了每一個任務，在多個戰略領導職位和多個業務部門中持續取得了卓越的成績。我們很高興她將於二月接替您擔任我們的下一任財務長。

So with that said, let me bring our introductory comments to a close. It's another strong year in the books for Intuit, reflecting increasing momentum in our QuickBooks Online ecosystem and strength in our tax businesses. I am proud of the innovations that our team continue to deliver every day. We're looking forward to sharing more with you in October.

那麼，就讓我結束今天的開場白吧。對 Intuit 而言，這又是強勁的一年，反映出我們的 QuickBooks Online 生態系統發展勢頭日益強勁，以及我們的稅務業務實力雄厚。我為我們團隊每天不斷帶來的創新感到自豪。我們期待在十月與您分享更多資訊。

And with that, we'll open it up to you to hear what's on your mind. Latif?

接下來，我們將敞開大門，聽聽您的想法。拉蒂夫？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Michael Nemeroff of Crédit Suisse.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的邁克爾·內梅羅夫。

Neil, it's been a pleasure working with you. Congrats on the retirement. Brad, if I may, just on the Small Business side. It looks like the TurboTax SE promotion was highly successful in this tax season and actually last quarter as well. I was wondering if you could maybe tell us about some of the other cross-promotional activity that you plan going forward. And then also if you could maybe tell us if there's any noticeable difference in the retention of the TurboTax SE versus the stand-alone SE subscribers so far.

尼爾，和你一起工作非常愉快。恭喜您退休。布拉德，如果可以的話，我想談談小型企業方面的問題。看來TurboTax SE的促銷活動在本報稅季以及上個季度都非常成功。我想問您能否介紹一下您接下來計劃開展的其他一些交叉推廣活動。另外，您能否告訴我們，到目前為止，TurboTax SE 的用戶留存率與獨立版 SE 用戶留存率之間是否有任何明顯的差異？

Thank you, Michael. Let me start by saying this was an incredibly inspiring year to see the power of our ecosystem. It's not just connecting products like QuickBooks Self-Employed and TurboTax Self-Employed, but it's connecting people. I gave the example of the power of connecting a small business with an accountant, and now accountants are getting 3x as many leads as they did last year. And we have small businesses increasing their odds of success, and they're working with accountants more often so that's the power of bringing people together. On the Self-Employed side, we've had a very good v1 year. When I say a version 1 year: 170,000 active subscribers. But we know in the TurboTax base, there are roughly 3 million of our filers who have Schedule C filing, and they are self-employed customers. So we have a lot of upside opportunity there to continue to accelerate the growth. We also had success last year in connecting our credit score in [net] with TurboTax to begin to move beyond just the tax filing needs of a consumer and begin to think about their entire financial life. That's why we are moving these 2 businesses together and having 1 consumer-back business unit now that Neil just mentioned. That was a great example. And then we have the matchmaking platform. What we basically did was take QuickBooks Online for accountants. We added some practice management capabilities and we've enabled the ability now for a small business looking for an accountant to be connected with one that actually meets their needs. And those are just a few examples. We have many more and we plan to showcase those at our October Investor Day, but we're excited to see this ecosystem really starting to create value for multiple parties.

謝謝你，麥可。首先我想說，今年是令人無比振奮的一年，讓我們看到了生態系統的力量。它不只是連接 QuickBooks Self-Employed 和 TurboTax Self-Employed 等產品，更是連結人。我舉例說明了將小型企業與會計師聯繫起來的力量，現在會計師獲得的潛在客戶數量是去年的 3 倍。我們看到小企業的成功幾率越來越高，他們與會計師的合作也越來越頻繁，這就是人與人之間合作的力量。在自僱人士方面，我們第一年的業績非常出色。我說，一個版本一年後：17 萬活躍用戶。但我們知道，在 TurboTax 的用戶群中，大約有 300 萬用戶使用附表 C 進行報稅，他們都是自僱人士。因此，我們有很大的發展空間，可以繼續加速成長。去年，我們也成功地將[net]的信用評分與TurboTax連結起來，開始超越消費者的報稅需求，開始考慮他們的整個財務生活。這就是為什麼我們要將這兩個業務合併，成立一個以消費者為中心的業務部門，就像尼爾剛才提到的那樣。那是一個很好的例子。然後我們還有婚友平台。我們基本上就是把 QuickBooks Online 開發成了會計軟體。我們增加了一些實務管理功能，現在，正在尋找會計師的小型企業可以聯繫到真正滿足他們需求的會計師。以上僅舉幾例。我們還有更多項目，並計劃在 10 月的投資者日上展示這些項目，但我們很高興看到這個生態系統真正開始為多方創造價值。

Our next question comes from Kash Rangan of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的卡什·蘭根。

Neil, are you sure you want to miss the tax rush of April '17 but not being around for the 11th year to watch the units?

尼爾，你確定你想錯過 2017 年 4 月的報稅高峰，但又不想連續第 11 年在場監督單位的運作嗎？

Kash, it's going to be a big miss, but I'll do my best to struggle through it.

卡什，這對我來說是個很大的遺憾，但我會盡力克服困難。

That was a facetious question. Well, congratulations. It's been great working with you over the past 10 years. Brad, sorry, you get the serious question. It's really impressive to see the QBO SE business take a dimension of its own. What's your best guess/prediction as to how this installed base of customers, QBO SE, behaves differently than the typical QBO customer. In other words, you've had a legacy set of systems that QBO -- typical QBO customers, desktop customers have been tethered to. Do you think this new customer base has a completely different demographic -- different business profile? And therefore, are there other ways in which Intuit could monetize this exciting new dimension of the business by adding other value-added services and products that you previously had not envisioned in your typical QBO customer base as far as their behavior is concerned? My only question.

那是個反問句。恭喜！過去十年與您共事非常愉快。布拉德，不好意思，你懂我的意思。看到 QBO SE 業務發展出自己獨特的規模，真是令人印象深刻。你認為這群已安裝的客戶群（QBO SE）與典型的 QBO 客戶在行為上會有哪些不同？換句話說，你們一直有一套傳統的系統，QBO（典型的 QBO 客戶、桌面客戶）一直依賴這套系統。你認為這個新客戶群的人口統計特徵——不同的商業模式——是否完全不同？因此，就典型的 QBO 客戶群的行為而言，Intuit 是否可以透過添加其他增值服務和產品，將這項令人興奮的新業務維度貨幣化，而這些服務和產品是您之前沒有設想過的？我只有一個問題。

Thank you, Kash. And I think I'd rather answer Neil's question. I'll take that one. And by the way, it gives me a chance to double back to Michael. I didn't mean to leave off a piece of Michael's question, which was do we see any sort of behaviors in retention around QuickBooks Self-Employed, TurboTax Self-Employed. And the answer is we're still in the early phases of that, but it's performing as exactly as we had hoped and actually slightly more positive. So we'll talk more about that at Investor Day, Michael. And I'm sorry, I didn't close that out. Kash, to your point, I've got to tell you. Self-Employed is one of the more exciting things I've seen in my 15 years here. We talk about a TAM of 800 million small businesses around the world. 750 million of those qualify as self-employed or businesses of one. Today, this is about 34% of the workforce around the globe. It's going to be 43% in the next handful of years. And it's a very real phenomenon. And what makes it exciting in terms of their behaviors and some of the differences that you asked me about, it's not just the numbers, it's their needs. When you get underneath what keeps a self-employed business operator awake at night, the first is the fluctuation of income. It's feast or famine. They may have lots of rides in Uber and then a period of time where there are no rides. Or if they're working for TaskRabbit or DoorDash, lots of deliveries and then not a lot of deliveries. And they have to find a way to kind of even out that cash flow so that they have the ability to cover their necessities and live a daily life. The other thing is finding the next gig. They often work 2 or 3 of these different jobs. So sometimes, they drive. And sometimes, they deliver. And sometimes, they'll actually do tasks. And so we're bringing a combination of matchmaking capabilities, the ability for you to separate your personal and business expense, the ability for you to predict your income and then what you're going to need to have for a certain bill. And we're trying to help them manage their lives that way. So there are lots of unique things that we have assets that we can apply in different ways that we think will help solve their most important problems. I love where you finished your question, which is other services we could sell. We got used to razor and razor blades in QBO. That model also applies to Self-Employed but in different products. It's not going to be payroll and payment, but it could be TurboTax, the ability to manage your finances and then connect to taxes, which is what we proved this year. We have added payments capability, the ability to send an invoice, track it like a Domino's Pizza and then get paid electronically through your mobile phone. So we have additional services, but I would say this: ARPC for us isn't the primary focus in Self-Employed. It is getting all 750 million, even if it's at $10 a month. That is a beautiful business, and we're super excited about the self-employed opportunity. So I hope I covered all your aspects. And Michael, I hope I get out of jail free on the one I went back and answered for you.

謝謝你，卡什。我覺得我比較願意回答尼爾的問題。我選那個。順便說一句，這給了我一個機會再去找麥可。我無意遺漏邁克爾問題的一部分，他的問題是：我們是否看到 QuickBooks Self-Employed 和 TurboTax Self-Employed 的用戶留存率有任何行為模式？答案是，我們仍處於早期階段，但它的表現完全符合我們的預期，實際上甚至略好一些。邁克爾，我們會在投資者日上詳細討論這個問題。對不起，我沒有把那個窗口關掉。卡什，你說得對，我得告訴你。自僱是我在這裡生活15年來見過的最令人興奮的事情之一。我們談論的是全球 8 億家小型企業的潛在市場規模。其中 7.5 億人符合自營商或一人企業的條件。如今，這約佔全球勞動力的34%。未來幾年內，這個比例將達到43%。而且這確實是一種真實存在的現象。而真正令人興奮的是，就它們的行為以及你問我的一些差異而言，不僅僅是數量，還有它們的需求。當你深入了解自營商夜不能寐的原因時，首先想到的就是收入的波動。要嘛大豐收，要嘛飢荒。他們可能在優步上有很多單子，然後會有一段時間單子都沒有。或者如果他們為 TaskRabbit 或 DoorDash 工作，可能會出現送餐次數很多，然後又很少的情況。他們必須想辦法平衡現金流，以便能夠支付生活必需品並維持日常生活。另一件事就是找到下一份工作。他們通常會同時從事其中兩到三份不同的工作。所以有時候，他們會開車。有時，他們確實做到了。有時候，他們真的會完成一些任務。因此，我們結合了配對功能、區分個人和業務支出的功能、預測收入的功能，以及預測特定帳單所需資金的功能。我們正在努力幫助他們以這種方式管理自己的生活。因此，我們擁有許多獨特的資源，可以以不同的方式加以利用，我們認為這將有助於解決他們最重要的問題。我喜歡你最後提出的問題，那就是我們還可以銷售其他服務。我們在QBO中已經習慣了使用剃刀和剃須刀片。此模式也適用於個體經營者，但適用於不同的產品。它不會是工資和支付軟體，但可能是 TurboTax，它可以管理你的財務，然後連接到稅務系統，而這正是我們今年所證明的。我們新增了付款功能，您可以發送發票，像達美樂披薩一樣追蹤訂單，然後透過手機以電子方式收款。所以我們提供其他服務，但我想說的是：ARPC 對我們來說並不是自僱人士的主要關注點。即使每月收費 10 美元，它也能獲得全部 7.5 億美元。那是一項很棒的事業，我們對這個自主創業的機會感到非常興奮。希望我已經涵蓋了您所有方面。邁克爾，我希望我能因為回去替你回答的那件事而無罪釋放。

Our next question comes from Walter Pritchard of Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的華特‧普里查德。

I'm wondering, just on tax, if you could help us understand. I think units have been the focus of your growth, and units were a little disappointing in fiscal '17. And you've come back with pretty strong tax guide for fiscal '18. I'm wondering if you could -- I know you give us a lot of detail generally at your Analyst Day, but I'm wondering if you could give us any sort of early glimpse as to how you think that 7% to 9% comes together as you look into 2018.

我想請教一下關於稅務方面的問題，您能否幫我們解答一下？我認為銷量一直是你們成長的重點，但 2017 財年的銷量有點令人失望。你們為 2018 財政年度製定了一份非常有力的稅收指南。我想問一下——我知道您通常會在分析師日上提供很多細節，但我想問的是，您能否提前透露一下，您認為在展望 2018 年時，7% 到 9% 的增長目標將如何實現。

Sure, Walter. Let me start first with our guiding principle remains we want to expand the category, grow the number of people using our services, which are customers, and then look for ways to translate that into revenue and profit growth. And those are our priorities. And at the end of the day, this year, we didn't see that play out. We saw customer growth being a little more tepid at 2%, but we did get strong monetization and were able to deliver above the guidance we had provided. I'm proud of the team. I think we left this year encouraged by 2 things: the way we were able to still achieve our financial results and also some lessons learned in terms of how we can accelerate both category and customer growth as we look ahead. As you know, it's a hypercompetitive tax category, so I don't want to unveil too much now. We'll talk a little bit more about it when we get closer to tax season, but I will give you 3 major buckets, which we did talk about last year. One is the ability to continue to accelerate do-it-yourself category and compete more effectively in the free segment. The second is the opportunity to begin to transform the assisted tax category, bringing the best of technology with human assistance together through our SmartLook capabilities. And the third is to begin to expand beyond tax and solve additional financial problems that these consumers are wrestling with, and an example last year was credit score and now with Mint and other assets combined, we see those as opportunities and catalyst for growth as well. That's what gave us the confidence to be able to give you the outlook of 7% to 9% growth, which is an acceleration from this past season.

當然可以，沃爾特。首先，我想強調的是，我們的指導原則仍然是：我們要擴大產品類別，增加使用我們服務的客戶數量，然後尋找方法將這些轉化為收入和利潤的成長。這些都是我們的首要任務。但最終，今年我們並沒有看到這種情況發生。我們發現客戶成長略顯疲軟，僅為 2%，但我們實現了強勁的盈利，並超越了我們先前給出的預期。我為這支隊伍感到驕傲。我認為今年我們受到兩件事的鼓舞：一是我們仍然能夠實現財務目標，二是我們在展望未來時，如何加速品類和客戶成長方面吸取了一些經驗教訓。如你所知，這是一個競爭非常激烈的稅收類別，所以我現在不想透露太多。等報稅季接近時，我們會再詳細討論一下，但我現在先給大家介紹 3 個主要類別，我們去年也討論過這些類別。一是能夠持續加速DIY品類的發展，並在免費領域更有效參與競爭。第二個機會是開始改變輔助報稅類別，透過我們的 SmartLook 功能，將最好的技術與人工協助結合。第三點是開始擴大業務範圍，超越稅務領域，解決這些消費者面臨的其他財務問題。例如，去年的信用評分問題，現在Mint和其他資產結合起來，我們認為這些也是機會和成長的催化劑。正是這一點讓我們有信心向大家預測 7% 至 9% 的成長，這比上一季的成長速度有所加快。

And then, Neil, just on the expense run. It sounds like you were almost calling out some investments that you would make this year that were kind of unusual or ones that you needed to make. Is that the case? Or how should we think about the level of incremental OpEx that you're guiding for in '18 versus how you'd kind of steady-state run the business?

然後，尼爾，只是報銷費用而已。聽起來你好像在暗示今年你會進行一些比較特別或不得不進行的投資。真是這樣嗎？或者，我們應該如何看待您在 2018 年指導的增量營運支出水平，以及您如何維持業務的穩定營運？

Yes, Walter, the 4 areas that I called out and mentioned are all things that came out of the strategic reassessment that Brad mentioned at the beginning of the call. As we began to plan really for the next few years, we felt like we really needed to put more investment and more focus and more attention around artificial intelligence, machine learning, improving the effectiveness and efficiency of our engineering investment, which, as you know, is a considerable investment; accelerating our transition to AWS; and then also improving the effectiveness of our marketing in the U.S. and around the world. So those were all areas we felt like where maybe we had been under-investing in the past. And so there's a very diligent effort for 2018 and really going forward to step up in those areas with clear benefits delineated from them around the product offering and around customer benefits. So yes, that was a big focus of our plan for 2018 and really going forward.

是的，華特，我提到的 4 個方面，都是布拉德在通話開始時提到的策略重新評估中得出的結論。當我們開始真正規劃未來幾年時，我們感到確實需要加大對人工智慧、機器學習的投資和關注，提高我們工程投資的有效性和效率（如您所知，這是一項相當大的投資）；加快向 AWS 的過渡；以及提高我們在美國和世界各地的營銷效果。所以，這些都是我們覺得過去可能投入不足的領域。因此，2018 年及以後，我們將非常努力地在這些領域加大投入，並圍繞產品供應和客戶利益明確闡述這些領域帶來的好處。所以，是的，這是我們 2018 年以及未來計畫的重點。

Our next question comes from Keith Weiss of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。

This is Sanjit Singh for Keith Weiss. I guess, first, to start off, Neil, sad to see you go. It's been a pleasure working with you, but best of luck in retirement. In terms of questions, to start off, I just had quick clarification on the tax guidance. Embedded in your tax guidance, to what extent is -- are you looking at an improvement in terms of overall filing? I understand this year was a little bit of a weird year in terms of overall tax filing on growth. Are you assuming a sort of return to normalcy going into next year?

這是桑吉特·辛格為基斯·韋斯所做的報導。首先，尼爾，很遺憾看到你離開。與您共事非常愉快，祝福您退休生活一切順利。關於問題，首先，我只是想快速澄清一下稅務方面的指導意見。在您的稅務指導中，您是否考慮在整體報稅方面有所改進？我知道今年在整體成長相關的稅務申報方面有點特殊。您是否認為明年一切都會恢復正常？

Yes, this is Brad. First of all, it was an unusual year this year, and we'll have to wait until October to see where it ultimately finishes it up. What we are seeing across the industry is a little bit of an uptick in extension filing. So whether this year ends up being flat or slightly up, it is still more like 2013 and not like a typical cycle. So right now, in our plan, to answer your question specifically, we're in that 0% to 1% range. That's sort of where we are. Now sometimes the industry is a little more bullish than that, and they'll say it's 1.5 or 1 to 2, but we're in the 0 to 1. That's what we factored in, and that's the model that we're using for the guidance we just gave.

是的，這是布拉德。首先，今年情況特殊，我們需要等到十月才能知道最終結果如何。我們看到整個行業都出現了延期申請數量略有上升的趨勢。所以，無論今年最終是持平還是略有成長，它仍然更像 2013 年，而不是典型的周期。所以，就目前而言，在我們的計劃中，具體回答您的問題，我們處於 0% 到 1% 的範圍內。我們現在的情況大概就是這樣。現在，業內人士有時會更加樂觀一些，他們會說漲幅在 1.5 到 2 之間，但我們預測的是 0 到 1。這就是我們考慮的因素，也是我們剛才給出的指引所使用的模型。

Got it. And then just a follow-up on margins. Both short term, looking into next year and maybe a little bit longer term. When we look at margins expanding slightly next year, what are some of the main factors that are driving -- what are the opportunities for you guys to drive margins next year? And then longer term, with this QuickBooks Self-Employed emerging as a massive opportunity, when we think about margin longer term, how does that fit into your overall long-term margin framework?

知道了。然後，再補充一點關於利潤率的問題。既包括短期目標，也包括明年的目標，或許還可以考慮更長遠的目標。當我們展望明年利潤率略有成長時，有哪些主要因素在推動這項成長？你們明年有哪些機會可以推動利潤率成長？從長遠來看，隨著 QuickBooks Self-Employed 的出現，它成為了一個巨大的機會。當我們考慮長期利潤率時，它如何融入您的整體長期利潤率框架？

Yes, I'll take this one. Just a reminder, our first priority is always to grow our customer base and our top line revenue. So that's our first financial principle, and always the thing we think about first. We're excited and we're encouraged by the growth we saw in 2017 and some prospects we see going forward. And that's really encouraged us to lean in and to invest more, to fund and accelerate some of this growth. And I think our ability to do that -- the ability to put money into the areas I just mentioned in a more concentrated way and still deliver some margin expansion for 2018 is just a tremendous thing, and it shows our commitment to our second financial principle of growing our operating income faster than our top line revenue. And it's also indicative of just really a very intense focus inside the company to concentrate our investments in areas we think are really going to drive growth long term. How the margins play out in future years will really just be determined on the investment opportunities that we see at the time. So I really can't comment on that. But I'm really delighted with where we ended up in the margin guidance for 2018. To drive the type of investment that we're seeing in top line growth and still deliver some good margin expansion, I think, is -- I'm pleased with that.

是的，我要這個。再次提醒大家，我們的首要任務始終是擴大客戶群和提高營業收入。所以這是我們的第一個財務原則，也是我們總是先考慮的事情。我們對 2017 年取得的成長以及未來發展的一些前景感到興奮和鼓舞。這確實鼓勵我們加大投入，為這些成長提供資金並加速發展。我認為我們能夠做到這一點——能夠以更集中的方式將資金投入到我剛才提到的領域，並且還能在 2018 年實現利潤率的增長，這是一件了不起的事情，這表明我們致力於實現第二個財務原則，即營業收入的增長速度要快於總收入的增長速度。這也顯示公司內部非常重視將投資集中在我們認為能夠真正推動長期成長的領域。未來幾年利潤率如何，實際上將取決於我們屆時看到的投資機會。所以我對此真的無法置評。但我對我們最終確定的 2018 年利潤率預期非常滿意。我認為，要推動我們目前在營收成長方面所看到的投資規模，同時還能實現良好的利潤率擴張，這——我對此感到滿意。

Our next question comes from Ross MacMillan of RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行的羅斯·麥克米倫。

My congrats and, Neil, you'll be missed, but looking forward to see you at Analyst Day in a month or so. Just on the Consumer Tax outlook, Brad, I just had a couple of questions. You outlined 3 things that you -- the major buckets, if you will, that you think can drive the growth. And I had 2 specific questions. One is on the acquisition of -- or transition of assisted. Are we getting to a point now where SmartLook is actually driving sort of more users to TurboTax? And if so, do they tend to be higher-value users in the sense that they're not 1040 filers? They tend to come from assisted, so they're already sort of higher value. That's question one. And then question two is when we think about additional services, I think you talked about, about 20% of the ARPU uplift this year came from things like fraud protection or audit insurance. Is that an expanding part of the pie? Is that going to continue to drive an incrementally higher amount of growth in consumer tax?

恭喜你，尼爾，我們會想念你的，期待在一個月左右的分析師日上見到你。布拉德，關於消費者稅收前景，我有幾個問題。您概述了您認為可以推動成長的 3 個主要方面——或者說，您認為可以推動成長的 3 個主要方面。我有兩個具體問題。一是輔助設備的取得——或過渡。現在是不是SmartLook反而把更多用戶​​吸引到TurboTax去了？如果是這樣，他們是否傾向於高價值用戶，因為他們不是 1040 表格申報者？它們往往來自輔助醫療機構，所以它們本身就具有較高的價值。這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，當我們考慮附加服務時，我想您也提到過，今年 ARPU 成長約 20% 來自詐欺保護或審計保險等服務。那部分份額是不斷擴大嗎？這是否會繼續推動消費者稅收逐步成長？

Yes, thank you, Ross. Let me start first with the transform assisted. As you know, about 40% of the market uses a DIY service and 60%, roughly, in assisted if you throw stores and CPAs in there together. And then if you look at where the dollars are spent, it's disproportionately much more towards assisted. So there is a big value pool there, and a lot of them, we believe, could be using a do-it-yourself solution. And they simply have this nagging question that we have found SmartLook solves delightfully well, and we're able to get them into the DIY category. So what we did see this year with SmartLook were 3 things. One is the sources of new customers this year did come at a higher percentage from those who have been using an assisted method last year. So yes, we are getting people into the DIY category with the SmartLook offering. Number two is when they used it, they were delighted. They had a 20-point higher customer satisfaction rating than those who did not use, which we believe will translate into the third lever, which is fewer people who have a nagging question in the future will think they have to leave a do-it-yourself solution and go to assisted. So we think it will help with retention. So we think the transform assisted is early days, but we've seen enough proof points to say this is something that we're going to lean into aggressively, and we had a really good year this year with it. The second on the value-added services, we do recognize that customers pay for value. And while some portions of the tax market are free, and we certainly have led that way for many, many years, we do discover if we solve additional problems for customers, they're willing to pay for those services. You came out with a couple of them in your question, and we are exploring others. That's why we've put the Mint business and the TurboTax business together to begin to think more holistically about the overall financial needs of the consumer. I don't want to go much more into detail there, but the answer to your question is yes. You can imagine portions of this value prop will start to get -- there will be more free. And then there will be more other areas where we'll be able to monetize, and that's why we continue to look at strong growth in both customers as well as revenue.

是的，謝謝你，羅斯。首先讓我從變換輔助開始。如您所知，大約 40% 的市場使用自助服務，如果將商店和註冊會計師 (CPA) 也算在內，大約 60% 的市場使用輔助服務。然後，如果你看看這些錢都花在了哪裡，你會發現它們不成比例地更多地流向了受助群體。所以這裡蘊藏著巨大的價值池，我們相信，其中許多使用者都可以採用自助式解決方案。他們一直有一個揮之不去的問題，而我們發現 SmartLook 可以非常出色地解決這個問題，並且我們能夠讓他們歸入 DIY 類別。所以，今年我們在 SmartLook 上看到了 3 件事。一是今年新客戶來源中，去年使用輔助方法的客戶比例較高。所以，是的，我們透過 SmartLook 產品將人們引入了 DIY 類別。第二點是，當他們使用它時，他們非常滿意。他們的客戶滿意度評分比未使用該服務的客戶高出 20 分，我們相信這將轉化為第三個槓桿，即未來遇到棘手問題的人會更少地認為他們必須放棄自助解決方案而尋求幫助。所以我們認為這有助於提高客戶留存率。所以我們認為變換輔助技術還處於早期階段，但我們已經看到了足夠的證據，可以說明我們將大力發展這項技術，而今年我們在這方面取得了非常好的成績。關於增值服務的第二點，我們確實認識到客戶是為價值付費的。雖然稅務市場的某些部分是免費的，而且我們多年來一直引領著這一潮流，但我們發現，如果我們能為客戶解決其他問題，他們也願意為這些服務付費。你在問題中提到了其中幾個，我們正在探索其他的。這就是為什麼我們將 Mint 業務和 TurboTax 業務合併在一起，以便更全面地考慮消費者的整體財務需求。我不想再贅述細節，但你問題的答案是肯定的。你可以想像，這種價值主張的部分內容將會開始變得──會有更多免費的東西。然後，我們還能在更多其他領域獲利，這就是為什麼我們繼續專注於客戶和收入的強勁成長。

That's helpful. And then one follow-up just quickly on the investments in fiscal '18. There was 4 buckets there that Neil mentioned. I just wondered on enhanced branding and marketing: to what extent are you going to lean into acquiring more free users in TurboTax or look to sort of up the ante on Absolute Zero or whatever marketing plan you have for the forthcoming year.

那很有幫助。然後，簡單跟進一下 2018 財年的投資情況。尼爾提到的那裡有4個桶子。我只是想了解一下關於加強品牌推廣和行銷的問題：你們會在多大程度上致力於在 TurboTax 中獲得更多免費用戶，或者加大對 Absolute Zero 的投入，或者你們為來年制定的任何營銷計劃。

Yes, I would say 2 things. One is that enhanced brand and marketing will be across the ecosystem. So we have services from QuickBooks Online to Self-Employed to global markets we're opening up to, obviously, TurboTax. So think about that as an aggregate bucket because we've learned if we get one growing, we can accelerate the growth of the other. I want to hold off, if you don't mind, on revealing too much about what we plan to do or not do with Absolute Zero at this point, just given the competitive nature of the market. But suffice it to say that just as we always do, we came out with some lessons learned, and we're excited to get back in the game next year. So we'll share a little bit more closer to season.

是的，我想說兩點。一是加強品牌和行銷將遍及整個生態系統。所以，我們提供的服務涵蓋 QuickBooks Online、自僱者以及我們正在開拓的全球市場，當然還有 TurboTax。所以，可以把它看作是一個聚合桶，因為我們已經了解到，如果我們讓其中一個成長，我們就可以加速另一個的成長。如果您不介意的話，鑑於市場的競爭性質，我想暫時不要透露太多關於我們計劃對 Absolute Zero 做什麼或不做什麼。但總而言之，就像我們一直以來所做的那樣，我們從中吸取了一些經驗教訓，我們很高興明年能重返賽場。所以我們會接近賽季的時候再分享更多資訊。

Our next question comes from Nandan Amladi of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的南丹‧阿姆拉迪。

Neil, congrats on your retirement. I hope to see you next -- in a few weeks at the Analyst Day. Brad, the question on the sustained 40% unit growth for QuickBooks Online, how much growth are you expecting in the Self-Employed and international as part of the 40%?

尼爾，祝賀你退休。希望幾週後的分析師日上能再見到你。Brad，關於 QuickBooks Online 持續 40% 的銷售成長，你預計這 40% 的成長中，自僱人士和國際用戶能達到多少？

Yes, Nandan, that would be a key piece of it. We still see lots of upside in the U.S. We have a good significant number of small businesses here that are still using Excel spreadsheets and shoeboxes. And so that will be core growth in the U.S. Whether it's in the Self-Employed segment or what we historically thought of as core QBO, we now see that as a QBO lineup. Just like we have TurboTax basic, deluxe and premier, we're going to have the same thing here with QBO. And as we open up new markets, we've got real acceleration happening in the U.K., Canada and Australia. We're still in the final stages of getting product market fit in India, France and Brazil. And so those will add to units over time but we haven't, at this point, shared what percent of the mix will come from any one of those pieces. Instead, what we're focused on and what we would ask you to think about is total subscriber growth north of 40; the ecosystem revenue growth north of 30, which is, by the way, an increase from what we've been saying. We've been saying 25 to 30. And then what we'll continue to share with you at Investor Day is we watch the LTV to CAC. Are we actually acquiring those customers profitably? And anything north of 3 is positive, and we are well above that number when you blend it all in whether it's self-employed, it's new countries or it's core U.S. And so those 3 things should give us all confidence that we're growing a healthy and profitable franchise.

是的，南丹，那將是關鍵的一環。我們仍然看到美國市場有許多發展潛力。這裡有許多小型企業仍然在使用Excel表格和鞋盒。因此，這將是美國的核心成長點。無論是自僱人士領域，還是我們過去認為的核心 QBO 領域，我們現在都將其視為 QBO 產品線的一部分。就像TurboTax有基礎版、豪華版和高級版一樣，QBO也會有同樣的版本。隨著我們開拓新市場，英國、加拿大和澳洲正經歷真正的加速發展。我們目前仍處於在印度、法國和巴西實現產品市場契合度的最後階段。因此，隨著時間的推移，這些產品將會增加產量，但目前我們還沒有透露這些產品中哪一款會佔總產量的百分比。相反，我們關注的重點，也是我們希望大家思考的，是用戶總數增長超過 40；生態系統收入增長超過 30，順便說一句，這比我們之前所說的要高。我們一直說的是25到30。然後，在投資者日上，我們將繼續與大家分享的是，我們會關注 LTV 與 CAC 的比值。我們真的能以獲利的方式獲取這些客戶嗎？任何高於 3 的數值都是正數，而我們把所有因素都考慮進去之後，無論是自僱人士、新國家還是美國核心市場，我們的數值都遠高於這個數字。因此，這三點應該讓我們所有人都有信心，我們正在發展一個健康且有利可圖的特許經營體系。

And a quick follow-up on QuickBooks Enterprise. You mentioned that you're expecting units to decline but revenue to be up slightly. How much impact are you seeing from consolidation in the market there? Sage particularly entering the U.S. market with their purchase of Intacct. Is there any pressure to move to a cloud-based solution in the QuickBooks Enterprise family?

最後，再快速跟進 QuickBooks Enterprise。您提到預計銷售量會下降，但收入會略有成長。您認為市場整合對當地市場產生了多大影響？Sage 透過收購 Intacct 進入美國市場。QuickBooks Enterprise 系列產品是否有移向雲端解決方案的壓力？

Thank you for the question because it gives a chance to clarify something that I think we may have created a misperception. When we said that our QuickBooks Desktop units will be declining, that includes our core QuickBooks, not just Enterprise. So we have a QuickBooks Pro, a QuickBooks Premier and then QuickBooks Enterprise. The Enterprise category actually isn't declining in units. It continues to grow, and it tends to be the low-end disruptor for that mid-market space, where we're about 30% cheaper than the names that you just listed. And our product and our Net Promoter Scores tend to be better than those alternatives. So what we are seeing is even though we have a decline in overall desktop units as more people now opt for the cloud with QBO or they even migrate over to QBO, we still have a very healthy and growing QuickBooks Enterprise franchise that's growing both customers and market share, and it's growing revenue and that's what's basically keeping the total desktop revenue ecosystem slightly positive.

感謝您的提問，因為它給了我一個澄清一些我們可能造成誤解的機會。我們之前說過 QuickBooks Desktop 的銷售量將會下降，這指的是我們的核心 QuickBooks 版本，而不僅僅是企業版。所以我們推出了 QuickBooks Pro、QuickBooks Premier 和 QuickBooks Enterprise。企業級產品的銷售量其實並沒有下降。它持續成長，並且傾向於成為中端市場領域的低端顛覆者，我們的價格比你剛才列出的那些品牌便宜約 30%。我們的產品和淨推薦值往往優於其他同類產品。因此，我們看到，儘管隨著越來越多的人選擇使用 QBO 等雲端服務，或者遷移到 QBO，整體桌面設備銷量有所下降，但我們仍然擁有一個非常健康且不斷增長的 QuickBooks Enterprise 業務，其客戶和市場份額都在增長，收入也在增長，這基本上使整個桌面收入生態系統保持略微正增長。

Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的史考特‧施內伯格。

Neil, it's been a real pleasure. Congratulations to you and to Michelle. My question's on the new investments and just a feel for the timing. Is this a multiyear thing? Or are these 4 initiatives going to be in this single year? You mentioned EBIT margin will expand, and you're going to rein in on share repurchases. Is that a 1-year thing or a multiyear thing? That's the general gist of the question, however you'd like to approach it.

尼爾，真是太榮幸了。恭喜你和米歇爾。我的問題是關於新的投資以及對時機的把握。這是一項持續多年的計劃嗎？或者說，這四項措施都將在今年內完成？您提到息稅前利潤率將會提高，並且您將控制股票回購規模。這是一年期的事情還是多年期的事情？這就是問題的大致要點，無論你選擇哪種切入點。

Yes, the increased investments, Scott, are really multiyear investments. I wouldn't think of them being incrementally -- or increases every year, but I think our commitment is to do more things really -- fewer things really, really well and to really start and complete some projects that have the most impact. So I would think of it as clearly a multiyear assignment. On the share repurchase buyback, I wouldn't overreact to that. If you look at what we have guided around our share count, the 15% dividend increase, we're still going to be returning roughly 70% of our free cash flow through share buybacks and through dividend increases even at the low end. So we'll see how the market plays out and see what other investment opportunities we have. But as I said, I think the adjustment in that program is going to be pretty modest. If you think about 85% return this year -- or in 2017 and probably something in the low 70s for 2018. So it's going to be a pretty modest adjustment there.

是的，斯科特，增加的投資實際上是多年期投資。我不認為它們是逐步增加的——或者說每年都在增加，但我認為我們的承諾是真正地做更多的事情——把更少的事情做到極致，並真正啟動和完成一些影響最大的項目。所以我認為這顯然是一項需要多年才能完成的任務。對於股票回購，我不會反應過度。如果你看看我們對股份數量的指導，以及15%的股息成長，即使在較低的水平上，我們仍然會透過股票回購和股息成長返還大約70%的自由現金流。所以我們將拭目以待市場走勢，看看還有哪些其他的投資機會。但正如我所說，我認為該計劃的調整幅度會相當小。如果你考慮今年 85% 的回報率——或者 2017 年的回報率，以及 2018 年可能在 70% 左右的回報率。所以，這方面的調整幅度應該要相當小。

And just as a follow-up on -- comments, Brad or Neil, on seasonality for the upcoming tax season? I know it's early yet, but we had this slow start this past year and IRS fraud prevention. Just wondering what you're hearing at this point in the summer from the IRS and what you think we may expect. And then as part of that, that prior question on your enhanced marketing spend, Brad, you said it was across the ecosystem, just curious how that might impact marketing spend, specifically in the TurboTax category.

布拉德或尼爾，能否就即將到來的報稅季的季節性問題發表一下看法？我知道現在還為時過早，但去年我們開局緩慢，而且在防範國稅局欺詐方面也遇到了困難。想知道你在這個夏天的這個階段從美國國稅局聽到了什麼消息，以及你認為我們可能會面臨什麼。然後，作為其中的一部分，關於您之前提出的關於增加行銷支出的問題，布拉德，您說這是在整個生態系統中進行的，我只是好奇這會對行銷支出產生怎樣的影響，尤其是在 TurboTax 類別中。

Yes, Scott, it's still really early to be able to anticipate what's going to happen. But if you just look at some of the leading indicators, Congress is still trying to debate whether there will or won't be changes to tax laws. You've got a transition of the commissioner at the IRS that'll be occurring in the fall. Obviously, you have new leadership stepping in to some of our competitors' roles. And so I think at the end of the day, it's going to be a fast and furious, get everything done and get ready for tax season. So we're anticipating that. We're agile. We're able to react. We've got quite a few years of doing it. And the other thing we do know is it is human nature as technology makes it easier, and the last thing we want to think about is filing taxes that people continue to push later and later into the season. So I believe we're going to continue to deal with those kind of phenomena. In terms of the marketing stuff, we don't want to talk, as I mentioned a few minutes ago, about specifics around whether we're going to increase any focus in any particular product. What we are going to do, as Neil said, is we reallocated dollars, now that we see a healthy LTV to CAC. We see our Net Promoter Scores really improving. I mentioned the QuickBooks Online at 22 points year-over-year. And anytime we see that, we say now is a good time to step on the accelerator and build category awareness and get our products out there. So I don't want to comment on what we're going to do with TurboTax other than to say we're excited for the whistle to blow and the new season to start.

是的，斯科特，現在預測未來會發生什麼事還為時過早。但如果你只看一些領先指標，你會發現國會仍在辯論稅法是否會進行修改。今年秋季，美國國稅局將迎來局長的換屆。顯然，一些競爭對手的職位已經由新的領導層接任。所以我覺得最終會是一場快速而激烈的行動，我們要盡快完成所有工作，為報稅季做好準備。所以我們已經預料到了這一點。我們行動敏捷。我們能夠做出反應。我們已經做了好幾年了。我們也知道，隨著科技的發展，人們總是習慣性地把報稅這件事往後拖，這是人之常情。我們最不想看到的就是報稅這件事，人們總是不斷地把報稅時間延後到報稅季的最後期限。所以我認為我們將繼續應對這類現象。至於行銷方面，正如我幾分鐘前提到的，我們不想談論是否會增加對任何特定產品的投入等具體細節。正如尼爾所說，我們現在看到了健康的客戶終身價值與客戶獲取成本之比，所以我們將重新分配資金。我們看到淨推薦值確實在提高。我提到 QuickBooks Online 年比成長了 22 個百分點。每當我們看到這種情況，我們就會說，現在是加速前進、提高品類知名度並將我們的產品推向市場的好時機。所以，除了說我們很興奮地期待著新賽季的開始之外，我不想對我們將如何處理 TurboTax 發表任何評論。

Our next question comes from Sterling Auty of JP Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。

I want to circle back to Consumer Tax and some of the discussion around unit volumes. Can you give us a sense of what you saw in terms of maybe some of the share shift at the low end versus the high end? And how does that play into your strategy for the upcoming tax year?

我想再回到消費者稅以及關於單位銷售的一些討論上來。您能否簡要介紹一下您觀察到的低端市場與高端市場市佔率的變化？那麼，這會如何影響您下一納稅年度的策略呢？

Yes, Sterling, we'll unpack more of that at Investor Day. We try to get as granular as we can without giving out too much of the secret sauce. I would say, overall, we roughly held share this year. And so on one hand, you could say in a very complicated tax season, where total IRS returns were not healthy and you had new competition and intense competition, you could say that's not so bad. But for us, it was a disappointment because we always want to grow share at least a point each year. The second is we have lessons learned here. We've been around the block a few times. And if I take you back to 2013, that was a year where we grew our units 3%. We grew our revenue 4%. We came back to the locker room, we watched the game film and the next year we came out and we were able to grow the revenue -- the units 9% and the revenue, 7%. So we've come back, and we've kind of figured out, okay, what is it that we're excited about? What is it we think we could have done differently? And what will we do as a result? And that stuff we'll share a little bit closer to tax season. But right now, I can tell you that we held share. We performed better in paid than we did in free. And we think we have some good lessons learned of how we're going to go after that a little differently this year.

是的，斯特林，我們會在投資者日上詳細討論這個問題。我們力求盡可能細緻入微，但又不會洩漏太多秘方。總的來說，我認為我們今年的市佔率大致保持穩定。因此，一方面，你可以說，在一個非常複雜的報稅季，國稅局的申報總額並不理想，而且出現了新的競爭和激烈的競爭，你可以說這也沒那麼糟糕。但對我們來說，這令人失望，因為我們總是希望每年至少能成長一個百分點。第二點是，我們從中吸取了教訓。我們經歷過不少事了。如果我帶你回到 2013 年，那一年我們的銷量成長了 3%。我們的收入成長了4%。我們回到更衣室，觀看了比賽錄影，第二年我們取得了成功，銷量成長了 9%，收入成長了 7%。所以我們回來了，也弄清楚了，好吧，我們究竟在為什麼而感到興奮？我們覺得哪些方面可以做得更好？那麼，我們將因此採取什麼行動呢？至於那些內容，我們會在報稅季來臨時再分享。但現在我可以告訴你，我們持有股份。我們在付費模式的表現比在免費模式下更好。我們認為我們已經吸取了一些很好的經驗教訓，今年我們將採取一些不同的方式來實現這一目標。

Okay. And then one follow-up on QBO. Given the increased focus here on SE, does it change how the innovation engine around QBO works? In other words, where you're investing more the resources from a development effort?

好的。然後是關於QBO的後續報道。鑑於目前對搜尋引擎優化（SE）的關注度不斷提高，這是否會改變QBO創新引擎的運作方式？換句話說，你把更多資源投入在研發工作中去了哪裡？

Yes, I want to first just make sure that I haven't left a false perception. When I say increased focus on SE, that's not away from QBO. QBO has a ton of headroom, and it was QBO that improved its Net Promoter Score 22 points year-over-year. And so that business is really accelerating. QBSE is incremental on top of that. It was a category that we used to over-serve with QBO. They don't need full accounting. All they need is separating business, personal expense, the ability to send that into a tax return or an accountant and then be able to track an invoice and get paid. So have a right offering for self-employed, and we have a right-for-me offering for QBO. So I would just simply say that today, we feel like it's an and, not an or. And there isn't going to be any massive shift away from QBO to go after QBSE.

是的，我首先想確認我是否留下了錯誤的印象。我說要更關注SE，並不是指放棄QBO。QBO 還有很大的成長空間，而且 QBO 的淨推薦值比前一年提高了 22 分。因此，這項業務確實在加速發展。QBSE是在此基礎上增加的。過去，我們透過 QBO 過度服務於此類別。他們不需要完整的帳目。他們只需要將商業支出和個人支出分開，能夠將這些資訊提交給稅務申報表或會計師，然後能夠追蹤發票並收到付款。所以我們有適合自僱人士的產品，也有適合我的QBO產品。所以，我只想簡單地說，今天我們覺得這是一個“和”，而不是一個“或”。而且，不會有從QBO大規模轉向QBSE的情況。

Our next question comes from Jim MacDonald of First Analysis.

我們的下一個問題來自 First Analysis 公司的 Jim MacDonald。

First, congratulations, Neil, and good luck. Brad, I was very interested in something you said in your later remarks about QBO growing 40% as a goal for apparently a longer period. As you get to these big numbers, you're starting to add as many units as you used to have a couple of years ago. Could you talk a little bit about how long you can keep doing that?

首先，恭喜尼爾，祝你好運。布拉德，我對你後來提到的關於 QBO 以 40% 的成長為目標，並且似乎要持續更長時間的說法非常感興趣。當數量達到如此之大時，你開始增加的單位數量就和幾年前一樣多了。能簡單談談您能堅持這樣做多久嗎？

Yes, Jim, I know that there's always a double-edged sword when you get sort of a guiding principle like that. And for us, it's subscribers of 40% plus, and it's the online ecosystem revenue of 30% plus. But we really are early days here. The shift to the cloud has put all the decisions back up for consideration. I think I've shared in prior quarters that in 2005, we saw a tipping point where the number of people in TurboTax leaning towards the cloud was 50-50 versus desktop. You fast-forward just a couple of years, and it became 90-10 for TurboTax, cloud versus desktop. 2 years ago, we hit that 50-50 tipping point with QuickBooks Online versus desktop when it came to new users. That number is now 80-20 people leaning to the cloud. And so as you think about more people leaning to the cloud, more countries we can serve and you throw in SE on top of that, which was a category we could never even go after in the past, we don't see, in the near term, the next several years, a need to back off of the 40%. But if we do, we'll be the very first to come out and change the expectation. But today, it's a law of large numbers. We've got 800 million prospects, and we currently have 2.3 million existing customers, and we think there's plenty of room to grow.

是的，吉姆，我知道當你有了這樣一種指導原則時，總會有一把雙面刃。對我們來說，這意味著訂閱用戶成長超過 40%，線上生態系統收入成長超過 30%。但我們現在真的還處於起步階段。遷移到雲端使得所有決策都需要重新考慮。我想我在之前的幾個季度已經提到過，2005 年我們看到了一個轉折點，當時 TurboTax 用戶中傾向於使用雲端軟體和使用桌面軟體的人數達到了 50:50。僅僅幾年後，TurboTax 的雲端版就以 90% 對 10% 的優勢勝出，桌面版佔絕對優勢。兩年前，在吸引新用戶方面，QuickBooks Online 與桌面版的使用率達到了 50/50 的臨界點。現在傾向於使用雲端運算的人數是 80 比 20。因此，隨著越來越多的人傾向於使用雲端服務，我們可以服務的國家越來越多，再加上軟體工程（這是我們過去從未涉足的領域），我們認為在短期內，未來幾年內，沒有必要放棄 40% 的目標。但如果真這麼做了，我們將是第一個站出來改變人們固有觀念的人。但如今，這是大數定律。我們有 8 億潛在客戶，目前有 230 萬現有客戶，我們認為還有很大的成長空間。

Great. And we haven't talked about acquisitions in a while, so I thought I'd ask. Are acquisitions part of your investment approach in terms of maybe buying in some technology or talent?

偉大的。我們已經很久沒有討論收購事宜了，所以我想問。收購是否是您投資策略的一部分，例如透過收購技術或人才？

Yes, Jim, they are. Typically, as you just suggested, they are technologies or product features that enable us to fill out a road map that will help us get to market faster, or they're talent. And when Neil mentioned artificial intelligence and machine learning as one of the 4 areas we're investing in, you can think of that being as much about talent acquisition as it is about the algorithms and capabilities we might buy in a product. So we are using M&A. It gets held to the same ROI hurdles as everything else, the 15% plus return over a 5-year period. And so you really won't see any deviation from that as we look ahead.

是的，吉姆，他們確實是。正如你剛才所說，它們通常是能夠幫助我們完善產品路線圖的技術或產品功能，這將幫助我們更快地將產品推向市場，或者它們是人才。當尼爾提到人工智慧和機器學習是我們正在投資的四個領域之一時，你可以把它理解為既關乎人才引進，也關乎我們可能在產品中購買的演算法和功能。所以我們正在運用併購手段。它和其他所有投資一樣，都必須達到相同的投資報酬率門檻，即 5 年內獲得 15% 以上的回報。因此，展望未來，你不會看到任何偏離這一方向的情況。

Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Brad, I wanted to ask you a little bit about what you said about the tax business transforming the assisted side. And I'm wondering, as you move up the ladder, what kind of impact do you think that has on the tax segment from a revenue perspective and a margin perspective?

布拉德，我想問你一些關於你之前提到的稅務業務如何改變輔助服務方面的問題。我想知道，隨著你職位的晉升，你認為這會對稅務部門的收入和利潤率產生什麼樣的影響？

Yes, Kartik, I would say a couple of things. One is we believe there's a lot more revenue opportunity to be captured there. We believe with the assets we bring and the accountant relationships we already have and then a platform or technology that matches a consumer who needs tax filing needs with a pro who may be willing to lean in on that platform and help get those needs taken care of, we think have a lot of opportunity for growth on the revenue side. We haven't provided any guidance around any revenue or margin expansion beyond next year. When we get to Investor Day, we often share, here's what the outlook you can think about in small business and in tax, and we'll talk more then. But right now, our guidance is 7% to 9% for next year, which is a healthy year for TurboTax coming off of last year's guidance, which was 6% to 8%.

是的，卡爾蒂克，我有幾點想說。我們認為，其中一點是，那裡還有很大的收入機會可以挖掘。我們相信，憑藉我們擁有的資產和現有的會計師關係，再加上一個能夠將有報稅需求的消費者與願意利用該平台幫助解決這些需求的專業人士進行匹配的平台或技術，我們在收入方面擁有很大的成長機會。我們沒有就明年以後的收入或利潤率成長提供任何指導意見。到了投資者日，我們通常會分享一些關於小型企業和稅收的展望，屆時我們會進行更深入的討論。但就目前而言，我們對明年的預期成長率為 7% 至 9%，這對 TurboTax 來說是一個健康的年份，因為去年的預期成長率為 6% 至 8%。

And then maybe, Brad, you talked about anticipating about 0% to 1% growth in the overall tax market. What do you anticipate for DIY? What kind of a difference would you anticipate the DIY category will grow versus the total category?

然後，布拉德，你之前提到預計整體稅務市場成長約為 0% 到 1%。你對DIY有什麼期待？您預期 DIY 類別與整個類別相比會有什麼樣的成長差異？

Yes, I think there is a continuing trend that's gone on for more than a decade that, that category, DIY, is secularly advantaged. As people have grown up with technology and technology enables you to do some magical things, more and more people are choosing to do their taxes using software, whether it is a PC or it's a mobile phone. And as you start to introduce concepts like SmartLook, the ability to have a live video chat with a pro while doing your taxes on a phone or on a computer, that's only going to expand the DIY category. Historically, it's been a 3% to 5% sort of category growth. And so at this point, we haven't deviated from that outlook. This year, of course, was a crazy year across the board for every category, including the overall IRS. And so we didn't quite see that growth like we would have expected, but we don't think that this year is predictive of the future. And I think you look back over the last 10, you'll see that those numbers are pretty well supported.

是的，我認為已經持續了十多年的趨勢是，DIY 這個類別在本質上具有優勢。隨著人們在科技的薰陶下成長，科技也使人們能夠做很多神奇的事情，越來越多的人選擇使用軟體來報稅，無論是電腦還是手機。隨著 SmartLook 等概念的引入，用戶可以透過手機或電腦與專業人士進行即時視訊聊天來處理報稅事宜，這只會擴大 DIY 類別。從歷史上看，該品類的成長率約為 3% 至 5%。所以目前為止，我們還沒有偏離這個觀點。當然，今年對於各個領域來說都是瘋狂的一年，包括整個美國國稅局。因此，我們並沒有看到像預期那樣的成長，但我們認為今年的情況並不能預測未來。我認為，回顧過去 10 年的數據，你會發現這些數字得到了很好的佐證。

Our next question comes from Raimo Lenschow of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的雷莫·倫肖。

All the best to you, Neil, from me as well. Brad, can -- it seems like around AI, there seems to -- increased urgency from your side. And I guess, I see that from the market as well. Can you talk a little bit about the impact that the whole AI machine learning could have on your business? I mean, it seems like the whole world is going to be reshaped here. I'm just thinking about how that will play out for Intuit. And I know you'll probably talk a little bit more on the Analyst Day event.

尼爾，我也祝你一切順利。布拉德，似乎在人工智慧領域，你這邊展現了越來越強烈的緊迫感。我想，從市場上也能看到這一點。您能否談談人工智慧機器學習技術可能對貴公司業務產生的影響？我的意思是，感覺整個世界都要被重塑了。我只是在想這會對Intuit公司產生什麼影響。我知道你可能會在分析師日活動上多講一些。

Yes. Thank you, Raimo. You're right. We're at this precipice now where all this massive amounts of data and then the ability to match it with the processing power and the data storage and the smart algorithms can allow you to do some pretty magical things for customers. And we don't kid ourselves. We know the categories we're in are required but not desired. People don't wake up excited about accounting or paying their taxes or paying their utility bill. And so we have 3 benefits that our customers have always expected of our products. That is more money in their pocket, with little to no work and complete self-confidence that they didn't mess anything up in the process. When you think about artificial intelligence, it is uniquely suited to solve these problems. It can help you by looking at your characteristics, find better deals, whether it's small business loans or lower credit card fees. It can help you get rid of the questions that you would have to answer in TurboTax or anything in accounting, so you literally don't have to think about it, so there's no work. And it can double check your work for you to take the human being and match it with a computer, so you have complete confidence that you didn't mess anything up. So we really do believe this is the core of our strategy going forward, and we're not at a standing start. We shared before, we have over 100 patents that we have filed. We have over 30 applications in market, but we're only ramping this up and we think it's going to be a big opportunity in the future.

是的。謝謝你，雷莫。你說得對。我們現在正處於這樣一個關鍵時刻：海量數據，再加上處理能力、數據儲存和智慧演算法，可以讓你為客戶做一些非常神奇的事情。我們不會自欺欺人。我們知道我們所處的類別是必需的，但並非我們所希望的。人們醒來後並不會對會計工作、繳稅或支付水電費感到興奮。因此，我們擁有客戶一直以來期望從我們的產品中獲得的 3 個優勢。這意味著他們能賺到更多的錢，幾乎不用付出任何努力，而且他們完全自信在這個過程中沒有搞砸任何事情。談到人工智慧，它非常適合解決這些問題。它可以透過分析你的個人情況來幫助你，找到更優惠的交易，無論是小型企業貸款還是更低的信用卡費用。它可以幫你省去在 TurboTax 或任何會計軟體中需要回答的問題，讓你完全不用考慮這些問題，所以你根本不用做任何工作。它可以幫你複查工作，將人的工作與電腦的工作進行比對，讓你完全確信自己沒有犯任何錯誤。所以我們確實相信這是我們未來策略的核心，而且我們並非從零開始。我們之前分享過，我們已經申請了100多項專利。我們目前有超過 30 款應用程式在市場上銷售，但我們仍在加速推進，我們認為這在未來將是一個巨大的機會。

Perfect. And one quick follow-up, like on QBO, you obviously saw in terms of the unit growth, a nice step-up this year and you guided for a unit number for next year, which is kind of slowing down the growth a little bit. How do I -- what are the puts and takes there? Obviously, you have a greater scale like we discussed a couple of questions before. And what are the other factors we should think about there?

完美的。還有一個後續問題，就像在 QBO 上一樣，您顯然看到了今年的銷售成長，而且您也預測明年的銷售量會略微放緩。我該如何操作？ ——那裡有哪些投入和收穫？顯然，你們的規模更大，就像我們之前討論過的幾個問題一樣。除此之外，我們還應該考慮哪些其他因素？

Yes, we're coming off of a really strong year this year as you mentioned. It was our first year of being able to take advantage of some new countries catching fire like the 3, Canada, U.K. and Australia. We had our first year with TurboTax Self-Employed bundle, which sent 170,000 units over into QuickBooks Online to the Self-Employed product. So we're going to have some seasonality. We're going to have some compares and grow-overs. And so when we gave our guidance for this year, it's still that 40% plus number. And I expect coming out of the gates, we're probably going to see some more favorable numbers because we aren't going to have some of those things we have to compare against. And then come tax season, we're going to have to grow over a pretty good year this year. But that's not to say we're out of gas in tax. As I mentioned, 170,000 of them are active, and there's 3 million of them in the TurboTax base. So we plan to actually not make that an issue, but that's why our guidance right now was in that 37% to 42% range. That is not a ceiling for us. We simply think we have some grow-over we're going to have as we continue to learn and figure out how we're going to keep this accelerator going.

是的，正如您所說，我們今年的業績確實非常強勁。這是我們第一年能夠利用一些新興國家（如加拿大、英國和澳洲）的崛起。我們第一年使用 TurboTax 自僱人士套裝，將 17 萬單位的資料匯入 QuickBooks Online 自僱人士產品。所以我們會受到一些季節性因素的影響。我們將進行一些對比和發展。因此，當我們給出今年的指導意見時，仍然是40%以上的數字。我預計，一開始我們可能會看到一些更有利的數字，因為我們不會有一些需要比較的因素。然後到了報稅季，我們就得承認今年業績相當不錯，所以收入會有所成長。但這並不代表我們在稅收方面已經黔驢技窮。正如我所提到的，其中有 17 萬個活躍用戶，而 TurboTax 用戶群中有 300 萬個用戶。所以我們計劃實際上不讓這個問題成為問題，但這就是為什麼我們目前的指導意見在 37% 到 42% 的範圍內。那對我們來說不是上限。我們認為，隨著我們不斷學習和思考如何保持這種加速器運轉，我們將經歷一個成長和轉型的過程。

Our next question comes from Michael Millman of Millman Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Millman Research 的 Michael Millman。

So following up on what you've discussed, a couple of questions on tax. One is over the last 3 years, what's the number of distinct visitors that you've had on tax? And kind of related to that, you've been talking without saying just the word disruptive, but in terms of tax, where -- what market share does -- translates into disruptive? And then I have another question.

接著你們剛才的討論，我還有幾個關於稅務的問題。一是過去 3 年裡，您有多少獨立訪客瀏覽過稅務資訊？與此有點相關的是，你一直在談論「顛覆性」這個詞，雖然沒有直接說出來，但在稅收方面，市佔率究竟有多大才能轉化為顛覆性呢？我還有一個問題。

Okay. Michael, I may need clarification on the second. But on the first one around the number of unique visitors, we had a slide that we put in our Investor Day in the fall, and it has fiscal year '15 and fiscal year '16. We haven't yet released '17. We'll do that in the fall when we come back together in October. We had 89 million unique visitors that logged in, in fiscal year '15. It went to 92 million in fiscal year '16, and we'll talk more about what we saw when we get together in October for '17. So that's a very large population of people that come to turbotax.com each year. Now could help me with your second question around disruptive? I'm not -- I wasn't sure...

好的。邁克爾，關於第二個問題，我可能需要你澄清一下。但關於第一個問題，即獨立訪客數量，我們在秋季的投資者日上展示了一張幻燈片，其中包含了 2015 財年和 2016 財年的數據。我們還沒有發布 '17 版本。我們將在秋季，也就是十月份大家再次聚在一起的時候做這件事。2015 財年，我們有 8,900 萬獨立訪客登入。2016 財年達到 9,200 萬美元，我們將在 10 月的 2017 年會議上詳細討論我們所看到的情況。所以每年造訪 turbotax.com 的使用者群體非常龐大。現在你能幫我解答一下關於「顛覆性」的第二個問題嗎？我不是——我不太確定…

Disruptive means taking that number and increasing conversion. So I'm not sure what conversion is now, but maybe you can give us an idea. Asked in a different way, how much you can increase conversion and what would that mean in terms of how many returns that you could be doing?

顛覆性創新是指在現有數據基礎上提高轉換率。所以我不太清楚現在的轉換率是多少，但也許你能給我們一些建議。換個角度問，你能將轉換率提高多少？這又意味著你能獲得多少退貨？

Okay. Gosh, I think that'll be probably easier for us to walk through with the funnel when we get together in October. And we'll try to unpack for you, sort of what goes from a -- someone who's a unique visitor, someone who actually clicks into the product and tries it to someone who converts and becomes a full-time user. But I can tell you, at the highest level, roughly 155 million people are filing their taxes. 92 million came to TurboTax a year ago. We ended up with roughly 35 million who filed with TurboTax. And then if you throw in our Pro segment, we've got roughly 55 million to 60 million between those 2 products. We think SmartLook plus the improvements in our TurboTax product give us the ability to serve a much larger population of those 150-plus million than we are today. And that's why we talk about transform. I don't know if I would use the word disruptive because the accountants are our friends here. We're working with them and they're providing the expert service. But we do plan to be disruptive to competitive alternatives because we think we can do it with the more advanced technology at a lower price point for customers than they can, and that's what we plan to try to prove.

好的。天哪，我覺得等我們十月聚在一起的時候，用漏斗圖來梳理這個問題可能會比較容易。我們將嘗試為您解讀，從一位獨立訪客（即點擊進入產品並嘗試使用的用戶）到一位轉換並成為全職用戶的過程。但我可以告訴你，在最高層面上，大約有 1.55 億人正在報稅。一年前，TurboTax 的用戶數量達到了 9,200 萬。最後統計出使用TurboTax報稅的用戶大約有3500萬。如果再加上我們的專業版產品，這兩款產品加起來的銷售量大約在 5,500 萬到 6,000 萬之間。我們認為，SmartLook 加上 TurboTax 產品的改進，使我們能夠為超過 1.5 億人口中的更多人提供服務，而我們現在的服務範圍要大得多。這就是我們談論轉變的原因。我不知道是否應該使用“破壞性”這個詞，因為會計師們在這裡是我們的朋友。我們正在與他們合作，他們提供了專業的服務。但我們確實計劃顛覆競爭對手的產品，因為我們認為我們可以用更先進的技術以更低的價格為客戶提供產品，而這正是我們計劃努力證明的。

And the other question is on desktop, with the [fraudsters] or the gray area for payers kind of moved out of the market. Where do you see desktop going?

另一個問題是桌面端，因為[詐欺者]或支付方的灰色地帶已經基本上被擠出了市場。你認為桌上型電腦的發展方向是什麼？

Desktop is becoming as it is in the consumer space and now the small-business space, as we look at the accounting professionals, they are leaning aggressively into our cloud-based solutions. And they're wanting to collaborate with their clients, whether they're consumers or small businesses using cloud technology, the ability to exchange documents electronically. Now it is earlier days there. We haven't hit the 50-50 tipping point, though we have definitely seen on the accountant side more people using our online product, and competitors have also tried to introduce online products. If it goes back to TurboTax, we have 90% in the cloud and 10% in the desktop. Those desktop customers are sticky. They don't indicate right now they want to move to the cloud, and we're fine with that, because we're able to deliver and serve them efficiently. But when it comes to the pros, it's much earlier days.

桌面端在消費領域和小型企業領域都變得越來越普及，就會計專業人士而言，他們正積極轉向我們的雲端解決方案。他們希望與客戶（無論是消費者還是小型企業）合作，利用雲端技術以電子方式交換文件。現在那裡的情況已經是以前了。雖然我們還沒有達到 50/50 的臨界點，但我們確實看到會計師方面有更多的人使用我們的線上產品，競爭對手也嘗試推出線上產品。如果還是用TurboTax，我們90%的資料在雲端，10%在桌面端。這些桌面使用者黏性很強。他們目前沒有表示想要遷移到雲端，我們對此並不介意，因為我們能夠有效率地為他們提供服務。但對職業選手來說，那還是很久以前的事了。

Our next question comes from of Jesse Hulsing of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的傑西·赫爾辛。

This is Yena on for Jesse. On the small business side, what are your expectations for ARPU trajectory in 2018 -- fiscal '18, I mean. I understand the subscriber base still growing very strongly globally including the self-employment, which would pressure ARPU. But I think it would be helpful to get your view on the puts and takes there and the potential upside drivers. And also quick follow-up for Neil, are there any updates you can share at this time on ASC 606?

這是耶娜替傑西報道。就小型企業而言，您對 2018 年（我是指 2018 財年）的 ARPU 軌跡有何預期？我知道全球用戶群仍在強勁成長，包括自僱者，這將對每位用戶平均收入 (ARPU) 造成壓力。但我認為，聽聽您對這些交易的看跌和看漲之處以及潛在的上漲驅動因素的看法會很有幫助。另外，Neil，關於ASC 606，您目前有什麼最新進展可以分享嗎？

Let me take the first one, and we'll hand it Neil for the accounting treatment. On ARPU, as you know, we've talked about this. It's a mix thing. So on an apples-to-apples basis, we continue to see opportunities to improve the revenue per customer for Self-Employed, the revenue per customer outside the U.S. and the revenue per customer for the QBO customers in the U.S. When you put it all together, you see that ARPU number looking like it's going down because we're growing fast in the Self-Employed segment. We're growing quickly outside the U.S. But for us, ARPU is not what we focus on. What we ask everybody to focus on is the ecosystem revenue growing faster than 30. It was just 90 days ago that we used to guide 25 to 30. And so it's getting healthy and healthier, and our lifetime value to CAC continues to be an opportunity for us to get those customers efficiently. We'll talk a little bit more. Neil often does this. We'll do it at Investor Day, where we'll show a chart that says our ARPU, overall, by product line, which direction is it moving. But I would say when you put it into the mix, the best thing to focus on would be to focus on revenue at the ecosystem level growing faster than 30. Neil, you want to take the puts...

讓我來處理第一個，然後交給尼爾進行會計處理。關於 ARPU，正如您所知，我們已經討論過這個問題。這是多種因素共同作用的結果。因此，從同等條件來看，我們仍然看到提高自僱人士每客戶收入、美國以外地區每客戶收入以及美國QBO客戶每客戶收入的機會。綜合來看，由於自營商業務成長迅速，ARPU（每位使用者平均收入）似乎正在下降。我們在美國以外的市場發展迅速。但對我們來說，ARPU（每位使用者平均收入）並不是我們關注的重點。我們要求大家關注的是生態系收入成長速度超過 30%。就在90天前，我們還帶過25到30名學員。因此，情況越來越好，我們對 CAC 的終身價值仍然是我們有效獲取這些客戶的機會。我們再聊一會兒。尼爾經常這樣做。我們將在投資者日上展示一張圖表，說明我們的 ARPU（每位用戶平均收入）總體狀況以及按產品線劃分的趨勢。但我認為，綜合考慮所有因素，最應該關注的是生態系統層面的收入成長速度超過 30%。尼爾，你想做空…

The headline on 606 is that it's not going to have a significant impact on our results over the next few years. We may see some movement in the quarters. And so our quarterization may change a little bit on our tax products. But at total company level and at the full year level, it's not going to have a significant impact on our results.

606號新聞的標題是，它在未來幾年內不會對我們的業績產生重大影響。我們可能會看到季度出現一些波動。因此，我們的稅收產品中的季度劃分方式可能會略有變化。但從公司整體和全年來看，這不會對我們的業績產生重大影響。

Our final question comes from the line of Brad Reback of Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Brad Reback。

Neil, just real quickly, with the push to AWS, does that, longer term, change the CapEx requirement for the business? And sort of as a corollary to that, does it impact the gross margin percent looking forward?

Neil，我簡單問一下，隨著公司向 AWS 遷移，從長遠來看，這是否會改變公司的資本支出需求？由此推論，這是否會影響未來的毛利率百分比？

Yes, Brad, the primary reason we're so eager to move to AWS is really to enable developer productivity, enables to get things tested and get features out to market faster. So it's a big component there of improving the effectiveness and efficiency of our developers. That said, you'll notice that there is some improvement or some decrease in our CapEx spending in '17 versus '16 and '18 versus '17. So there's certainly an impact there. I frankly don't think the impact on the gross margin is going to be huge. But it's certainly going to have an impact and -- but the bigger driver above all is to try to get more efficiency and effectiveness out of our R&D dollars. And I think that's where you'll see some big improvement in getting products and getting things to market faster.

是的，布拉德，我們如此渴望遷移到 AWS 的主要原因是為了提高開發人員的生產力，讓我們能夠更快地進行測試並將功能推向市場。所以，這是提高我們開發人員效率和效能的重要部分。也就是說，你會注意到，與 2016 年相比，2017 年我們的資本支出有所改善或減少；與 2017 年相比，2018 年我們的資本支出也有所改善或減少。所以這肯定會產生影響。坦白說，我認為這對毛利率的影響不會很大。但這肯定會產生影響，而且——但最重要的驅動力是努力提高我們研發資金的效率和效益。我認為，在產品研發和上市速度方面，將會出現很大的改善。

And as there are no further questions in queue, would you like to close with any additional remarks?

由於沒有其他問題需要回答，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Latif. Thank you. First of all, we want to thank everybody for the questions today. We obviously covered a lot of territory, not the least of which was the news that both Neil and Michelle have announced, and we're excited for both of them. If you take anything away from the call, what I hope you hear from Neil and myself today is we're pleased with our results in fiscal year '17. We're increasingly encouraged by the momentum that we're carrying into fiscal year '18. We're looking forward to seeing you at our Investor Day, where we'll share more about our refresh mission and our strategy and how all these pieces come together. And until then, we hope you have a great remainder of the summer. Thanks, everybody.

是的，拉蒂夫。謝謝。首先，我們要感謝大家今天提出的問題。我們顯然談到了很多方面，其中最重要的是尼爾和米歇爾宣布的消息，我們為他們倆感到興奮。如果說今天這通通話你能記住什麼，那就是我希望你從尼爾和我這裡聽到的是，我們對 2017 財年的業績感到滿意。我們對進入 2018 財年的發展勢頭越來越感到鼓舞。我們期待在投資者日與您見面，屆時我們將分享更多關於我們革新使命和策略的信息，以及所有這些要素如何結合在一起。在此之前，我們希望您能度過一個美好的夏日餘下時光。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。