直覺電腦 (INTU) 2017 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good afternoon, my name is Lateef and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's first quarter 2017 conference call.

    下午好,我叫拉蒂夫,我將擔任本次會議的主持人。在此,我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2017 年第一季財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jerry Natoli, Intuit's Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. Mr. Natoli?

    接下來,我將把電話交給 Intuit 的財務副總裁兼財務主管 Jerry Natoli。納托利先生?

  • Jerry Natoli - VP of Finance & Treasurer

    Jerry Natoli - VP of Finance & Treasurer

  • Thanks, Lateef. Good afternoon, and welcome to Intuit's first quarter FY17 conference call. I'm here with Brad Smith, our Chairman and CEO, and Neil Williams, our CFO.

    謝謝你,拉蒂夫。下午好,歡迎參加 Intuit 2017 財年第一季電話會議。我今天和我們的董事長兼執行長布拉德史密斯以及我們的財務長尼爾威廉斯在一起。

  • Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for FY16 and our other SEC filings.

    在開始之前,我想提醒大家,我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致 Intuit 的表現與我們的預期有重大差異。您可以查看我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2016 財年 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件,以了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。

  • All of those documents are available on the Investor Relations page of Intuit's website at Intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

    所有這些文件都可以在 Intuit.com 網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性聲明的義務。

  • Some of the numbers in these remarks are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We've reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior-year period and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics.

    這些發言中的一些數字是按非GAAP準則列示的。我們在今天的新聞稿中對可比較的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明,否則所有成長率均指目前期間與去年同期相比的成長率,業務指標及相關成長率均指全球業務指標。

  • A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

    本次電話會議結束後,我們將在網站上提供我們準備好的演講稿和補充財務資訊。這樣,我就把電話交給布萊德了。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Jerry. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

    謝謝你,傑瑞。各位下午好,感謝各位的參與。

  • F17 is off to a strong start, and we're building on the momentum that we developed in FY16. In the first quarter, we grew revenue 9%, exceeded our QuickBooks Online subscriber guidance and we beat our overall financial target. With that backdrop, let me begin by sharing a few reflections on our business performance, and I'll start with small business.

    F17 開局強勁,我們將延續 2016 財年取得的良好勢頭。第一季度,我們的營收成長了 9%,QuickBooks Online 訂閱用戶數量超過了預期,並且超額完成了整體財務目標。在此背景下,我想先分享一些關於我們業務表現的思考,先從小企業說起。

  • QuickBooks Online continued to gain traction as we pursue a large global market opportunity. Our goal remains to be the operating system behind small business success, helping small businesses save time and improve their cash flow so that they thrive when times are good and they remain resilient when times are tough.

    隨著我們尋求巨大的全球市場機遇,QuickBooks Online 繼續獲得市場認可。我們的目標仍然是成為小型企業成功背後的作業系統,幫助小型企業節省時間,改善現金流,從而在順境中蓬勃發展,在逆境中保持韌性。

  • Total QBO subscribers grew 41% in the quarter to more than 1.6 million subs. We drove acceleration in our small business market outside the US where QuickBooks Online grew 50% to 323,000 subscribers, up from 45% in FY16.

    本季QBO用戶總數成長41%,超過160萬用戶。我們在美國以外的小型企業市場實現了加速成長,QuickBooks Online 的用戶數量成長了 50%,達到 323,000 人,高於 2016 財年的 45%。

  • The increase came in Canada, the UK, and Australia. The subscriber growth in the UK accelerating to 87%, which was up from 78%. We continue to focus our efforts on improving the product market fit in the remaining countries, which include India, Brazil and France, and we'll report more on our progress with these efforts in the coming quarters.

    加拿大、英國和澳洲的增幅最大。英國用戶成長率加速至 87%,高於先前的 78%。我們將繼續專注於改善產品在其餘國家(包括印度、巴西和法國)的市場契合度,並將在接下來的幾個季度中報告我們在這方面的進展。

  • QuickBooks Self-Employed is also contributing to the acceleration of subscribers. Roughly 110,000 of our QBO subscribers are using QuickBooks Self-Employed. This is compared to 85,000 last quarter and 35,000 a year ago. We've now launched QuickBooks Self-Employed in the UK and in Australia, as well.

    QuickBooks Self-Employed 也為使用者數量的加速成長做出了貢獻。我們大約有 11 萬名 QBO 用戶正在使用 QuickBooks Self-Employed。相比之下,上季為 85,000 人,一年前為 35,000 人。我們現在也在英國和澳洲推出了 QuickBooks Self-Employed。

  • I'm encouraged by the start in our small business group, but I also expect our momentum to continue accelerating in the second of half as we drive towards our QBO subscriber target of 2 million to 2.2 million subs for the full fiscal year. I'm confident in this acceleration because of the innovations that we have coming to market, including improvements in the core QBO platform that simplify the first use experience, including enabling small businesses to generate their first profit and loss statement in less than five minutes.

    我對我們小型企業團隊的開局感到鼓舞,但我也預計,隨著我們朝著全年 QBO 用戶數達到 200 萬至 220 萬的目標邁進,下半年我們的發展勢頭將繼續加速。我對這項加速發展充滿信心,因為我們即將推出的創新產品包括對核心 QBO 平台的改進,這些改進簡化了首次使用體驗,使小型企業能夠在不到五分鐘的時間內產生他們的第一份損益表。

  • We've also introduced a new smart invoicing capability that allows for real-time tracking of the invoice status in both QuickBooks Online and QuickBooks Self-Employed. We've also enhanced the QuickBooks Self-Employed user experience with the ability to now receive payments on mobile devices and always on mileage tracking.

    我們還推出了一項新的智慧發票功能,可在 QuickBooks Online 和 QuickBooks Self-Employed 中即時追蹤發票狀態。我們還增強了 QuickBooks 自僱人士的用戶體驗,現在可以透過行動裝置接收付款,並始終追蹤里程。

  • And finally, our recently introduced partnership with Google enabled a seamless integration between QuickBooks Online and Google calendar. Based on the strong product market fit that we have with Canada, the UK and Australia, we're leaning into greater go-to-market activities behind QBO in these countries. It's these factors that support our confidence in the continued acceleration of QBO subscribers in the back half of the fiscal year.

    最後,我們最近與Google建立的合作夥伴關係實現了 QuickBooks Online 和Google日曆之間的無縫整合。鑑於我們的產品與加拿大、英國和澳洲市場高度契合,我們正在加強在這些國家推廣 QBO 的市場活動。正是這些因素增強了我們對本財年下半年 QBO 用戶數量持續成長的信心。

  • With that overview on small business, let's talk tax. We're gearing up for another exciting tax season in Turbo Tax by continuing our multi-year investment in product innovation. Those product innovations are focused on reimagining the tax preparation process, while driving customer growth and increasing market share.

    在對小型企業有了大致了解之後,我們來談談稅務問題。我們將持續多年投資產品創新,為TurboTax迎接又一個令人興奮的報稅季做好準備。這些產品創新旨在重新構想報稅流程,同時推動客戶成長並提高市場份額。

  • We also continue to promote a set of best practices and standards within the industry that enable the IRS and the state to improve the ability to combat tax fraud. In ProConnect, we're focused on serving multi-service accountants who do both books and taxes for their customers.

    我們也將繼續在業界推廣一系列最佳實踐和標準,使美國國稅局和州政府能夠提高打擊稅務詐欺的能力。在 ProConnect,我們專注於服務那些同時為客戶提供記帳和稅務服務的綜合會計師事務所。

  • Our goal is to be the operating system behind the accountant's success as well. In service to this goal, we're providing one location within QuickBooks Online for accountants where the accountant can access all of their work flows.

    我們的目標是成為會計師成功背後的作業系統。為了實現這一目標,我們在 QuickBooks Online 中為會計師提供了一個統一的存取平台,會計師可以在這裡存取他們所有的工作流程。

  • Several exciting innovations are under way that begin to leverage the capabilities that we developed in Turbo Tax within our accountant's offerings, including increasing the number of documents that can be automatically uploaded, which reduces data entry. We expect these innovations to help us further strengthen our accountant relationships, while helping drive QuickBooks growth over time.

    我們正在進行幾項令人興奮的創新,開始將我們在 Turbo Tax 中開發的功能應用到我們的會計師產品中,包括增加可以自動上傳的文件數量,從而減少資料輸入。我們期望這些創新能幫助我們進一步加強與會計師的關係,同時隨著時間的推移推動 QuickBooks 的成長。

  • So across the board, we're off to a strong start in all of our businesses. And with that, let me turn it over to Neil to walk you through the financials.

    因此,我們所有業務都取得了強勁的開局。接下來,就請尼爾為大家講解一下財務狀況。

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Thanks, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone.

    謝謝你,布拉德,大家下午好。

  • For the first quarter of FY17, we delivered revenue of $778 million, up 9%, GAAP operating loss of $61 million, non-GAAP operating income of $32 million, a GAAP loss per share of $0.12, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.06. Note that our GAAP earnings per share includes the impact of the early adoption of the new accounting standard update for share-based compensation. This update requires excess tax benefits realized upon the settlement of a share-based compensation award to flow through the earnings statement instead of the balance sheet.

    2017 財年第一季,我們實現營收 7.78 億美元,年增 9%;GAAP 營業虧損 6,100 萬美元;非 GAAP 營業收入 3,200 萬美元;GAAP 每股虧損 0.12 美元;非 GAAP 稀釋後每股收益 0.06 美元。請注意,我們的 GAAP 每股盈餘包含了提前採用新的股份支付會計準則更新的影響。此更新要求,在結算股份支付獎勵時實現的超額稅收優惠應計入收益表,而不是計入資產負債表。

  • We expect this accounting change to reduce our GAAP tax rate from approximately 34% to approximately 32% for full FY17. The impact on GAAP earnings per share is an increase of approximately $0.07 in the first quarter and $0.12 for the full year.

    我們預計,這項會計變更將使我們 2017 財年的 GAAP 稅率從約 34% 降至約 32%。以美國通用會計準則計算,第一季每股收益將增加約 0.07 美元,全年每股收益將增加約 0.12 美元。

  • Turning to the business segments. Total small business revenue grew 11% for the quarter. As Brad mentioned, QuickBooks Online subscriber growth remained strong, and we exceeded our guidance for the quarter reaching 1.638 million subs, up 41% year over year.

    接下來我們來看業務區。本季小型企業總收入成長了11%。正如布拉德所提到的,QuickBooks Online 的用戶成長依然強勁,我們超出了本季的預期,用戶數量達到 163.8 萬,年成長 41%。

  • Small business online ecosystem revenue grew 26% for the quarter. As we discussed at Investor Day, we're focused on driving customer growth first, followed by online ecosystem revenue. We expect online ecosystem revenue to grow 25% to 30% this year, accelerating as the year progresses.

    小型企業線上生態系統營收本季成長了 26%。正如我們在投資者日上所討論的,我們首先專注於推動客戶成長,其次才是線上生態系統收入。我們預計今年線上生態系統收入將成長 25% 至 30%,隨著時間的推移,成長速度將會加快。

  • QuickBooks desktop remains a resilient and important part of our business. The first quarter was exceptionally strong for desktop units, up 23%, as unusually high renewals from existing desktop customers were driven by operating system upgrades. Our plan does not assume this growth continues throughout the year. Desktop ecosystem revenue grew 6% in the quarter.

    QuickBooks桌面版仍然是我們業務中穩定且重要的組成部分。第一季桌上型電腦銷量異常強勁,成長了 23%,這主要得益於現有桌上型電腦客戶的續訂量異常高,而續訂又受到作業系統升級的推動。我們的計劃並未假設這種成長動能會持續一整年。本季桌面生態系統營收成長了 6%。

  • Moving to tax. Consumer Tax revenue for Q1 was $60 million, and ProConnect revenue was $112 million. This was in line with our expectations in a seasonally light quarter.

    接下來討論稅務問題。第一季消費者稅收收入為 6,000 萬美元,ProConnect 收入為 1.12 億美元。這符合我們對淡季季度的預期。

  • To help with your modeling, we expect second-quarter Consumer Tax revenue to grow about a point faster than last year, given the way the calendar falls in January 2017. And as a reminder, we expect to provide a tax unit update in late February, concurrent with our second quarter earnings release. We'll also provide a final unit update in late April after the tax season ends.

    為了幫助您進行建模,鑑於 2017 年 1 月的日曆安排,我們預計第二季消費者稅收收入將比去年同期增加約 1 個百分點。另外提醒大家,我們預計 2 月下旬發布稅務部門最新進展,屆時將與我們第二季財報同時發布。報稅季結束後,我們將在四月下旬提供最終的單元更新報告。

  • We continue to take a disciplined approach to capital management, investing the cash we generate in opportunities that yield a return on investment greater than 15% over five years. We ended the quarter with approximately $600 million in cash and investments on our balance sheet.

    我們繼續採取嚴謹的資本管理方法,將產生的現金投資於五年內投資報酬率超過 15% 的機會。本季末,我們的資產負債表上約有 6 億美元的現金和投資。

  • Our first priority for the use of that cash is investing for customer growth. When it's the best use of cash, we'll return cash to shareholders via share repurchase and dividends. We've repurchased 1.8 million shares in the first quarter for $192 million, and $2.2 billion remains on our authorization. The Board also approved a dividend of $0.34 per share payable January 18, 2017.

    我們首要使用這筆資金的用途是投資於客戶成長。當現金用於最佳用途時,我們將透過股票回購和分紅的方式將現金回饋給股東。第一季我們以 1.92 億美元的價格回購了 180 萬股股票,我們剩餘的授權金額為 22 億美元。董事會也批准派發每股 0.34 美元的股息,將於 2017 年 1 月 18 日支付。

  • You can find our FY17 Q2 guidance details in our press release and on our fact sheet. We've reaffirmed our full year guidance, with the one exception being higher GAAP earnings per share guidance due to the early adoption of the accounting standard update mentioned earlier.

    您可以在我們的新聞稿和情況說明書中找到我們 2017 財年第二季業績指引的詳細資訊。我們重申了全年業績預期,唯一的例外是由於提前採用了前面提到的會計準則更新,提高了 GAAP 每股收益預期。

  • And with that, I'll turn it back to Brad to close.

    那麼,接下來就交給布萊德來結束今天的節目了。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Neil. I have to say, I'm pleased with the strong start to the fiscal year, and I remain optimistic about the path we're on to grow our QuickBooks Online franchise here in the US as well as in prioritized markets around the globe. We're building on our QBO momentum in Canada, the UK and Australia, and we further expanded the category with relevant offerings like QuickBooks Self-Employed.

    謝謝你,尼爾。我必須說,我對本財年的強勁開局感到滿意,並且對我們在美國以及全球重點市場發展 QuickBooks Online 業務的道路仍然保持樂觀。我們正在鞏固 QBO 在加拿大、英國和澳洲的發展勢頭,並透過 QuickBooks Self-Employed 等相關產品進一步擴展了這個類別。

  • Our third annual QuickBooks connect conference in late October was a great success, with attendance up year over year. Which reinforced the power of the ecosystem that is creating these indispensable connections between small businesses, accountants, and developers. So in a headline, we like how we've come out of the gates in Q1 and we remain focused on delivering another great year.

    我們在十月下旬舉辦的第三屆年度 QuickBooks Connect 大會取得了巨大成功,與會人數比去年有所增加。這進一步鞏固了生態系統的力量,該生態系統正在小型企業、會計師和開發人員之間建立這些不可或缺的聯繫。簡而言之,我們對第一季的開局感到滿意,並將繼續專注於再創佳績。

  • With that, Lateef, let's open it up and hear what's on everyone's mind.

    那麼,拉蒂夫,讓我們打開話匣子,聽聽大家都在想些什麼。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Our first question comes from the line of Brent Thill of UBS. Your line is open.

    我們的第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brent Thill。您的線路已開通。

  • Brent Thill - Analyst

    Brent Thill - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good afternoon. Brad, on the small business segment, the operating margin was flat year over year.

    謝謝。午安.布拉德,就小型企業業務而言,營業利潤率與上年持平。

  • You obviously grew it in 2015 to 2016 a pretty nice margin improvement. I know you don't give a lot of guidance specifically to that business, but there's been some concern as you go international that you can't maintain that operating margin expansion. Can you just walk through how you think about the segment business for small business on margins for the rest of the year?

    顯然,你們在 2015 年到 2016 年期間實現了成長,利潤率有了相當不錯的提升。我知道您沒有針對該業務給予太多具體指導,但隨著您走向國際化,有人擔心您無法維持營業利潤率的成長。您能否簡要介紹一下您對今年剩餘時間內小型企業利潤率細分市場業務的看法?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Brent. Sure can.

    是的,布倫特。當然可以。

  • First of all, as we look at the Company overall, you know our financial principles are to grow the top line double digits, to grow revenue faster than expense, which gives us operating margin expansion. And that produces strong cash flow, and then we invest that cash flow to grow the franchise. Either it's through internal investments, it's acquisitions or its returning cash to shareholders.

    首先,從公司整體來看,我們的財務原則是實現營收兩位數成長,即營收成長速度超過支出成長速度,進而實現營業利潤率的擴張。這樣就能產生強勁的現金流,然後我們將這些現金流投資於特許經營業務的成長。要嘛是透過內部投資,要嘛是透過收購,要嘛是透過向股東返還現金。

  • And ultimately as we look at the businesses, both tax businesses we like to see those business margins north of 60%. And in small business, given we're in an expansion mode, investing in growing category, expanding into new geographies, we like to have that in the neighborhood of 40%.

    最後,當我們審視這些企業時,無論是稅務企業還是其他企業,我們都希望看到它們的利潤率超過 60%。對於小型企業而言,鑑於我們正處於擴張階段,投資於成長型品類,拓展到新的地域,我們希望這個比例維持在 40% 左右。

  • I wouldn't get too caught up in the first quarter. We had some things that we'd moved around last year. We had our QuickBooks connect conference that fell in the second quarter last year.

    我不會太糾結於第一季的結果。去年我們搬動過一些東西。我們去年第二季舉辦了 QuickBooks Connect 大會。

  • This year it fell in the first quarter. So that brought a little bit of the marketing spend forward. Right now, we actually feel good about the overall investments that we're making, and our ability to deliver the kinds of margins that we typically talk to you about.

    今年第一季就出現了下滑。因此,部分行銷經費提前到位了。目前,我們對正在進行的整體投資以及我們實現通常與你們談論的那種利潤率的能力感到滿意。

  • Brent Thill - Analyst

    Brent Thill - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Walter Pritchard of Citi. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的華特‧普里查德。您的線路已開通。

  • Walter Pritchard - Analyst

    Walter Pritchard - Analyst

  • Hello, thanks. I'm wondering if, Brad, you could help us understand on the international side. I have to say a little bit of a turnaround or an improvement in your tone there relative to even the Analyst Day you had back in September.

    你好,謝謝。布拉德,我想問你是否能幫我們了解國際方面的情況。我必須說,與你在九月的分析師日相比,你的語氣有所轉變或有所改善。

  • It sounds like some of those countries you're seeing stronger trends there. And I'm just wondering, obviously you talked about product market fit, but any more detail you could give us about why you think that's picked up a bit in some of those countries?

    聽起來你在那幾個國家看到了更明顯的趨勢。我只是想問一下,您顯然談到了產品市場契合度,但您能否更詳細地說明一下,為什麼您認為在某些國家,這種契合度有所提高?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Walter, sure can. You're right, at investor day, we were pretty candid and I was about seeing the opportunity outside the US being much larger with the potential to grow faster than we were able to produce in FY16.

    是的,沃特,當然可以。你說得對,在投資者日上,我們非常坦誠,我當時的想法是,美國以外的機會要大得多,成長速度可能會比我們在 2016 財年實現的更快。

  • Our teams were already on that. I'm simply the radio man. And the good news is, they were working on closing out that last mile of getting the product compliant and at the levels that these countries expect.

    我們的團隊已經在著手處理這件事了。我只是個做廣播的。好消息是,他們正在努力完成最後一公里工作,使產品符合這些國家的要求和水準。

  • We got there for Canada, the UK and Australia, and as a result of that Net Promoter Scores are going up and we've leaned in to go-to-market activities in those countries. The team also has -- and we've seen by the way the corresponding increase in growth from 45% up to 50% and I've called out the UK specifically which exited last year 78%, now it's at 87% and just continues to build momentum.

    我們在加拿大、英國和澳洲都取得了成功,因此淨推薦值正在上升,我們也加強了在這些國家的市場推廣力度。團隊也取得了進展——順便說一句,我們已經看到相應的增長率從 45% 提高到了 50%,我特別提到了英國,去年英國的增長率為 78%,現在已經達到 87%,並且還在繼續保持增長勢頭。

  • These other remaining countries have their own timelines to get that last mile completed for product market fit, and they're very near term. So expect to see those coming online as well.

    其他剩餘的國家都有自己的時間表來完成產品市場契合的最後一公里,而且這些時間表都非常迫切。所以預計這些產品也會陸續上線。

  • So I'm optimistic that we're on it. We know what the right levers are, and the first quarter shows that if we focus on it we can actually get the numbers moving in the direction we want. So you should hear some more optimism in my tone now because I'm starting to see the proof points pay off.

    所以我很樂觀,我們正在朝著目標前進。我們知道正確的槓桿是什麼,第一季的數據顯示,如果我們專注於做這件事,我們確實可以讓數字朝著我們想要的方向發展。所以你應該能從我的語氣中聽出更多樂觀的情緒,因為我開始看到這些論點發揮了作用。

  • Walter Pritchard - Analyst

    Walter Pritchard - Analyst

  • Okay. Relative to desktop, I heard the comment on the operating system upgrades driving some of that. How much of that would you say was people who maybe recommitting more than you expected to the desktop?

    好的。就桌面系統而言,我聽到有人評論說作業系統升級是造成這種情況的部分原因。您認為其中有多少人可能比您預期的更多地重新投入桌面端使用?

  • And obviously, the online subscribers overall this quarter were quite strong. But as we look out a couple quarters, how does potentially more of your customers recommitting to desktop impact what you might be looking for in terms of online subs as we go out a year or more as maybe some of those would have moved over?

    顯然,本季線上訂閱用戶整體表現相當強勁。但展望未來幾個季度,隨著更多客戶重新選擇桌面版,一年或更長時間後,這些客戶中可能有一些會轉移到桌面版,這會對您在線訂閱用戶數量產生怎樣的影響?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Walter, we actually feel like we're expanding the category by having both offerings in the market. So primarily, the desktop business was the result of the operating system upgrades.

    是的,沃爾特,我們確實覺得透過同時在市場上提供這兩種產品,我們正在拓展產品類別。所以,桌面電腦業務的興起主要是作業系統升級的結果。

  • Windows 10 drove an upgrade cycle, and then the operating system upgrades in Mac. It was about 60/40 Windows and Mac. If you pull those out, out it was basically flat to down 1% without the upgraders, and so I'd say that normalizes things out for us.

    Windows 10 推動了升級週期,然後 Mac 作業系統也進行了升級。Windows 和 Mac 的使用比例約為 60/40。如果把這些因素剔除,那麼在沒有升級用戶的情況下,股價基本上持平或下降了 1%,所以我認為這對我們來說就正常化了。

  • If you look at the total customer base and you count it the way we used to, which we no longer put out on the fact sheet, those are people using at least the last three-years version of desktop or they're buying a subscription. The total base grew in the neighborhood of 5%, and that's up from where it was when we exited last year.

    如果你查看整個客戶群,並按照我們以前的方式進行統計(我們現在不再在情況說明書中公佈),那麼這些人要么是使用過去三年桌面版的用戶,要么是購買訂閱的用戶。總用戶基數成長了約 5%,比我們去年退出時的水平有所提高。

  • And then if you break that down, you mentioned QBO subs are strong, 41%. The desktop got a boost to this upgrade cycle which pushed it up to 23%. And you put it all together and the total paying customers in this last period was up a total of 33, so I do not see cannibalization happening.

    然後,如果你進一步分析,你提到 QBO 的訂閱用戶數量佔比很高,達到 41%。桌上型電腦在此次升級週期中得到了提升,使其增幅達到了 23%。把所有數據加起來,上一期付費客戶總數增加了 33 人,所以我認為不會有蠶食現象。

  • I do think we were the beneficiary of these operating system upgrades. We are gong to continue to have a good quality desktop offering, but we're leaning into the cloud and the customers are choosing the cloud. So I'd say that net-net, we're growing the category.

    我認為我們是這些作業系統升級的受益者。我們將繼續提供高品質的桌面產品,但我們正在向雲端運算轉型,客戶也正在選擇雲端運算。所以總的來說,我認為我們正在擴大這個品類。

  • Walter Pritchard - Analyst

    Walter Pritchard - Analyst

  • Great. Thank you.

    偉大的。謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • You're welcome.

    不客氣。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Jesse Hulsing of Goldman Sachs. Your question, please.

    下一個問題來自高盛的傑西·赫爾辛。請問您的問題。

  • Jesse Hulsing - Analyst

    Jesse Hulsing - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question, guys. I wanted to drill into your expectations for payroll and payments moving forward a little bit more.

    謝謝各位回答我的問題。我想更深入地了解您對未來薪資和付款方面的期望。

  • Payroll subscribers accelerated. I'm curious what your thought is on whether that acceleration is sustainable? And I'm wondering on the payment side, when you start to see the impact of the invoicing products start to hit the model? Thank you.

    薪資服務訂閱用戶數加速成長。我很想知道您認為這種加速發展是否可持續?我想知道在付款方面,您何時開始看到發票產品對模式產生影響?謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • I would say, Jesse, first of all -- I'm sorry. We do see opportunity to continue to strengthen our performance in both payroll and payments, and the team is focused on that just like we are with our international expansion of QBO.

    傑西,首先我想說──對不起。我們看到了在薪資和支付方面繼續加強業績的機會,團隊也正專注於此,就像我們專注於 QBO 的國際擴張一樣。

  • I feel good that the team knows the right levers, and we're continuing to optimize and improve. Currently right now if you look at the penetration rates into the customer base, payroll is at 15% in QBO and that compare to roughly 32% in desktop. So we've got a lot of head room there.

    我很高興團隊找到了正確的方法,我們也不斷優化和改進。目前,如果你看一下客戶群的滲透率,QBO 中的薪資用戶佔比為 15%,而桌面版則約為 32%。所以,我們在這方面還有很大的進步空間。

  • And payments right now is in the neighborhood of 6% in penetration, and that's a little ahead of desktop and we think that opportunity just has more head room as well. So our outlook is that we're going to continue to focus on this, and we're going to continue to have you focus on the penetration numbers because that's the ultimate sign. But the payoff for us is we've been guiding subscriber growth of QBO greater than 405 and we you saw it uptick to 41%, and we've been guiding QBO ecosystem revenue of between 25% and 30% and we saw it tick up to 26% in this quarter.

    目前支付領域的滲透率約為 6%,略高於桌面端,我們認為這一領域還有更大的發展空間。因此,我們將繼續關注這一點,並繼續讓你們專注於滲透率數據,因為這是最終的指標。但對我們來說,回報是,我們一直預測 QBO 的用戶成長將超過 405,而你們看到它成長了 41%;我們一直預測 QBO 生態系統的營收成長將在 25% 到 30% 之間,而本季我們看到它成長了 26%。

  • And that's the proof of the opportunity we have if we just stay focused on those two numbers. We're going to see strong payroll and payments growth and strong overall FPG growth.

    這就是如果我們總是專注於這兩個數字,就能獲得的機會的證明。我們將看到薪資和支付業務強勁成長,以及整體FPG業務強勁成長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Keith Weiss of Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的基斯‧韋斯。您的線路已開通。

  • Sanjit Singh - Analyst

    Sanjit Singh - Analyst

  • Hello, this is Sanjit Singh for Keith. Wanted to toggle back to some of the dynamics behind subscriber guidance, or the subscriber performance this quarter.

    大家好,我是Sanjit Singh,代表Keith。想回到用戶預測背後的一些動態,或者說本季用戶的表現。

  • So if I recall last year, I think you had some challenges in India and there was a reset in terms of strategy there. I think Canada also there was a change in go-to-market. So I guess what my question is, is how much of this quarter's performance in terms of the year-over-year growth is coming off of the easier comps?

    如果我沒記錯的話,去年你們在印度遇到了一些挑戰,所以戰略方面進行了調整。我認為加拿大市場進入策略也發生了變化。所以我想問的是,本季同比成長的業績中有多少是得益於同比基數較低這一因素?

  • And then going into the second half, is it just a function of better feature functionality driving that international growth going forward? Is that the right way to think about it?

    那麼,進入下半年,推動國際成長的僅僅是更完善的功能嗎?這種思考方式正確嗎?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay, great question. You're correct, last year as we had a period where we didn't feel like our non-US growth was reflecting the kinds of opportunities we see ahead of us. We did have two countries that were in a pivot, Canada and India.

    好的,問得好。你說得對,去年有一段時間,我們感覺美國以外的成長並沒有反映出我們未來看到的機會。當時有兩個國家處於轉型期,分別是加拿大和印度。

  • Canada was actually because we had tried a test of selling a QBO subscription in a retail box in retail stores, and what we found were we were getting units but then they were attriving. They were dropping off after a 90-day period, and so we literally didn't like the quality of the sub and we pulled that out and we had a grow-over.

    之所以選擇加拿大,實際上是因為我們嘗試在零售店裡以零售盒的形式銷售 QBO 訂閱,結果發現我們獲得了銷量,但他們卻失敗了。90 天后,他們的表現開始下滑,所以我們真的不喜歡這個版本的質量,所以我們把它換掉了,換了一個版本。

  • Canada has since ben picking up momentum and growing, but the real upside here was not just Canada. In the UK, where we went from a 78% growth rate in Q4 to an 87% in Q1, shows that it's picking up momentum as is Australia. So I would tell you, this is less about a year-over-year easy comp and this is more about that product market fit and this is more about that product market fit and leaning into go-to-market and that's the kind of feedback we're hearing from customers.

    此後,加拿大的發展勢頭越來越強勁,但真正的成長點不僅僅在於加拿大。英國的成長率從第四季的 78% 上升到第一季的 87%,這表明經濟成長勢頭正在增強,澳洲的情況也是如此。所以我想說,這與其說是簡單的同比比較,不如說是產品與市場的契合度,以及更積極的市場推廣,而這正是我們從客戶那裡聽到的反饋。

  • And of course we have the other three countries that we're getting to the last stage of product market fit as well, and then we'll start to lean into those in the back half. And that's why we feel like our 2 million to 2.2 million target is absolutely the right target to be giving.

    當然,我們還有其他三個國家也即將完成產品市場契合度的最後階段,之後我們會在下半年開始專注於這些國家。因此,我們認為200萬至220萬美元的捐贈目標絕對是正確的。

  • Sanjit Singh - Analyst

    Sanjit Singh - Analyst

  • Understood. Thank you for that. And just a quick follow up and an update on maybe some of the unit economic metrics. So if we look at -- if there's any comments that you have on renewal rates in terms of QBO and maybe by segment.

    明白了。謝謝。最後再簡單跟進一下,更新一些單位經濟指標。所以,如果我們看一下——您對QBO的續訂率,以及按細分市場劃分的續訂率,有什麼意見嗎?

  • And then also with respect to ASPs, I noticed on the Analyst Day that the ASPs for QuickBooks Self-Employed were up pretty nicely versus FY15. So could you give us any sense of how ASPs by QBO segment look like this quarter? Are those trending up?

    另外,關於平均售價 (ASP),我在分析師日上註意到,QuickBooks Self-Employed 的平均售價與 2015 財年相比有相當大的成長。那麼,您能否大致介紹一下本季 QBO 各細分市場的平均售價?這些數字呈上升趨勢嗎?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Do you want to take this one, Neil.

    尼爾,你想接這個嗎?

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Sure, Sanjit, I'll give this a shot. It's Neil.

    當然,桑吉特,我會試試看的。是尼爾。

  • If you go back to the guidance we gave and the conversation we had at Analyst Day, there are a number of moving parts. And it's clearly QuickBooks Self-Employed, as Brad mentioned, is growing quite nicely and which is overall providing some downward pressure on our overall ASPs.

    回顧我們給予的指導意見以及我們在分析師日上的談話,其中涉及許多動態因素。正如布拉德所提到的那樣,QuickBooks Self-Employed 的成長勢頭非常強勁,這無疑給我們的整體平均售價帶來了一定的下行壓力。

  • We did implement a price change in QBO in the US midway through the first quarter this year, which had a little bit of impact and will impact for the balance of the year. So a very modest price increase, but it's on a fairly large base.

    今年第一季中期,我們在美國對 QBO 進行了價格調整,這產生了一些影響,並將在今年剩餘時間內產生影響。所以價格漲幅非常小,但基數相當大。

  • And as we've already talked about, we're probably focused more on retention and driving the value of the accounting product outside the US where you know we don't have the same potential for payroll and payments attachment as we do in the US at this time. But first quarter looks good to us. Its looks like we're very much on track with our expectations.

    正如我們之前討論過的,我們可能更專注於留住客戶,並在美國以外地區提升會計產品的價值,因為你知道,目前我們在工資和付款附加方面的潛力不如在美國那麼大。但第一季看起來不錯。看來我們的進展完全符合預期。

  • You saw the acceleration in the online ecosystem revenue by a point. So it's early in the year, but so far I think the plans that we made are playing out exactly as we expected.

    你已經看到線上生態系統收入加速成長了一個百分點。雖然現在才年初,但到目前為止,我認為我們制定的計劃正在按預期進行。

  • Sanjit Singh - Analyst

    Sanjit Singh - Analyst

  • Any early indication on renewal rates in Q1?

    第一季續約率有任何初步跡象嗎?

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Nothing that -- no substantial change from what you saw at the end of last year.

    沒什麼特別的——與去年年底的情況相比,沒有實質的變化。

  • Sanjit Singh - Analyst

    Sanjit Singh - Analyst

  • Perfect. Thank you so much.

    完美的。太感謝了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Ross MacMillan of RBC Capital Markets. Your question, please.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的羅斯·麥克米倫。請問您的問題。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my question. Brad, a couple. Maybe the first one is just on the online payroll adds of -- I think the online payroll adds were 40,000. That's up a lot relative to the run rate you've been doing.

    謝謝您回答我的問題。布拉德,一對夫婦。也許第一個只是在線工資單上的新增數字——我認為在線工資單上的新增數字是 40,000。相對於你之前的運行速度來說,這已經提高了不少。

  • What actually happened there? Was there some international payroll markets that opened up, or was there any other high-level driver for that this quarter?

    那裡究竟發生了什麼事?本季是否有一些國際薪資市場開放,或者是否有其他高階的驅動因素?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • So first of all, one of the things we are continuing to do is improve the online payroll first-use experience. So one of the areas that the teams leaned into is make it easy for you to come in and then contextually find additional services like payroll and payments.

    首先,我們正在持續改進線上薪資系統的首次使用體驗。因此,團隊著重關注的領域之一是讓使用者輕鬆進入系統,然後根據上下文找到其他服務,例如薪資和付款。

  • We did have a reclassification which may give you a little bit of a pop in the fact sheet of about 7,000 units that had been attributed to the QuickBooks -- it's in the Mac product, it had been attributed to desktop, it's now being attributed to online. That's where it should have been classified along the way.

    我們確實進行了一次重新分類,這可能會讓您在情況說明書中看到大約 7,000 台設備的數據有所增加——這些設備之前被歸類為 QuickBooks,現在歸類為 Mac 產品,之前被歸類為桌面版,現在被歸類為在線版。它原本就應該被歸類在那個類別。

  • So it's giving you a little bit of an additional bump. But underneath that is really strong growth. With those tens of thousands as you talked about, roughly 40,000, the bulk of those are just continuing to improve the user experience. And then there was a 7,000 subscriber pop as a result of a reclass.

    所以它能帶給你一點額外的動力。但背後卻蘊藏著強勁的成長勢頭。正如你所提到的,那數萬用戶(約 4 萬)中,大部分用戶都在持續改善用戶體驗。然後,由於重新分類,訂閱用戶數量激增了 7000 人。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. But no other -- it wasn't like you opened up an international market to payroll for the first time, there was nothing like that?

    好的,這很有幫助。但除此之外,沒有其他情況——這並不是說你第一次向國際薪資市場敞開大門,根本沒有類似的事情發生?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • No, there wasn't.

    不,沒有。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • Okay, that's helpful. And then just I'm curious now that you've opened up Self-Employed I think you said to UK and Australia. Any sense for when I look at the overall net international ads, any sense for how material the Self-Employed [edition] was within the international ads?

    好的,這很有幫助。然後,既然您已經開放了自僱業務,我想您曾提到英國和澳洲。我很好奇。從整體國際廣告淨收入來看,自僱人士版在國際廣告中的比例如何?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I'd put it in total aggregate. And if you look at it in aggregate, we added 25,000 Self-Employed subs in the first quarter and that compares to 60,000 in the full 12 months of last year. We weren't in the market for the full first quarter in the UK and Australia. That's been in more recent weeks.

    嗯,我會把它放在總體上。從整體來看,我們第一季新增了 25,000 名自僱人士訂閱用戶,而去年全年新增用戶數為 60,000 名。在英國和澳大利亞,我們並沒有在整個第一季都參與市場活動。這種情況主要發生在最近幾週。

  • But the early results have been very positive. So I would say overall, most of that acceleration I'm continued to be in the US. But we're getting some upside with the new country expansion.

    但初步結果非常正面。所以總的來說,大部分的加速發展我都繼續在美國進行。但新國家的擴張為我們帶來了一些好處。

  • Ross MacMillan - Analyst

    Ross MacMillan - Analyst

  • That's very helpful. And great to hear the active base growing up 5%. That's a very good number, so congrats from me.

    那很有幫助。很高興聽到活躍用戶群成長了 5%。這是一個非常好的數字,我向你表示祝賀。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Ross. Appreciate it.

    謝謝你,羅斯。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Scott Schneeberger of Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自奧本海默公司的史考特‧施內伯格。您的線路已開通。

  • Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

    Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

  • Thanks. Good afternoon. Guys, I'm going to switch it up and go over to tax.

    謝謝。午安.各位,我今天換個話題,去聊聊稅務方面的事情。

  • Brad, curious, with the Path Act coming up in this upcoming tax season, just curious how you think that's going to shape early season filing behavior? And it looks like the store front guys are going to have some new refund advance products, just your thoughts on how you might compete with that. Thanks.

    布拉德,我很好奇,鑑於《PATH法案》即將在即將到來的納稅季生效,你認為這將如何影響納稅人早期的報稅行為?看起來實體店那邊要推出一些新的預支退款產品了,你覺得該如何跟他們競爭呢?謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure, Scott. Every year is an exciting year in tax. Our team is geared up. We've got some really cool product innovations and go-to-market campaigns, and the team is itching for the season to start for that first whistle to blow.

    當然可以,斯科特。稅務領域每年都充滿變數。我們的團隊已做好充分準備。我們有一些非常酷的產品創新和市場推廣活動,團隊都迫不及待地想要賽季開始,聽到第一聲哨響。

  • Obviously, we do have the Path Act this year. Those are people who have earned income tax credit or for those who actually have a child credit. The IRS working with the rest of industry has decided to hold those refunds till February 15, which helps us increase W2 verification and prevent fraud.

    顯然,我們今年有《Path Act》法案。這些人包括獲得所得稅抵免的人,以及獲得兒童稅收抵免的人。美國國稅局與業界其他部門合作,決定將這些退款推遲到 2 月 15 日發放,這有助於我們加強 W2 表格的核實並防止詐欺。

  • We've been very supportive of that. We believe fundamentally though that the IRS and the industry is still leaning in, so where 9 out of 10 returns will actually get their refunds back in 21 days. So we don't see a material change in they seasonality, but we're fully prepared to help those people get their money.

    我們一直非常支持這一點。但我們從根本上相信,美國國稅局和業界仍在努力,因此 10 個退稅申請中有 9 個實際上會在 21 天內收到退款。因此,我們預計季節性不會發生實質變化,但我們已做好充分準備,幫助這些人拿到他們的錢。

  • In terms of some of the stores leaning in with these refund anticipation loans, we pulled out of that business as you know more than a decade ago and you can go back and track our results. While they have had refund anticipation loans and we have not, we've been able to manage to grow the do-it-yourself category and to gain market share over that period of time. So we fundamentally don't see a shift in any sort of method behavior based upon history, and we are fully prepared to help those people with earned income tax credit get their refunds.

    至於一些商店熱衷於推出這些退款預支貸款,正如您所知,我們十多年前就退出了這項業務,您可以回顧一下我們的業績。雖然他們有退款預支貸款而我們沒有,但我們仍然能夠發展自助式產品類別,並在這段時間內獲得市場份額。因此,從根本上講,我們看不到任何基於歷史的方法行為發生轉變,我們已做好充分準備,幫助那些獲得勞動所得稅抵免的人獲得退稅。

  • Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

    Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks, Brad. Just on a follow up, what are you expecting for industry growth this year in tax with the IRS, and just your thoughts on potential influence this year or looking out a few years given results of the election? Thanks.

    偉大的。謝謝你,布拉德。後續問題,您預計今年美國國稅局的稅收行業增長情況如何?鑑於選舉結果,您認為今年或未來幾年可能產生的影響是什麼?謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • All right. Well, our assumptions right now are in the neighborhood of 1% to 2%. We typically are in the zero to 1% range.

    好的。嗯,我們目前的假設是在 1% 到 2% 左右。我們通常在 0% 到 1% 的範圍內。

  • Right now, everyone in our business as well as some of the industry is suggesting it might be a little more robust this year. So we'll have to see, somewhere in that zip code of 1% to 2%.

    目前,我們行業內的每個人以及一些業內人士都認為,今年的情況可能會更加樂觀。所以我們還得看看,大概在1%到2%的範圍內。

  • In terms of what's happened with the election, you know as well as we do, we've been in this business now for over three decades and we hear a lot of really good intent. Ad then ultimately what happens when the new President and Congress get in is what can we actually turn that into.

    至於選舉方面發生的事情,你和我們一樣清楚,我們從事這個行業已經超過三十年了,我們聽到了很多非常好的意願。最後,當新總統和國會上台後,我們最終能把這一切變成什麼樣子,才是關鍵。

  • And so I would tell you that we remain dedicated and supportive of things like tax simplification. We've been big supporters of that, and very vocal about it. We're very supportive and vocal about voluntary compliance, and we're also big fans of putting more money in the pockets of small businesses and consumers, paying less tax.

    因此,我想告訴大家,我們仍然致力於並支持諸如稅收簡化之類的措施。我們一直非常支持這一點,並且對此也一直積極發聲。我們非常支持並積極倡導自願合規,我們也十分贊成讓小企業和消費者口袋裡有更多錢,少繳稅。

  • So far, that's sort of what we're hearing, but we haven't gotten to January yet. We don't have the new President-elect in office and the new Congress. So right now, we're just prepared to do what we always do is have the best product in the market, and try to win the customer one customer at a time.

    目前我們聽到的消息大致如此,但還沒到一月呢。新當選的總統和新國會尚未就職。所以現在,我們準備好像往常一樣,提供市場上最好的產品,並努力贏得每位客戶的青睞。

  • Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

    Scott Schneeberger - Analyst

  • Great, thanks.

    太好了,謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Nemeroff of Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

    下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的邁克爾·內梅羅夫。您的線路已開通。

  • Michael Nemeroff - Analyst

    Michael Nemeroff - Analyst

  • Thanks for taking my questions. Brad, do you have maybe any early data points regarding the subscriber contribution from some of the new ecosystem partners, namely G-suite and AmEx? And what are your expectations for subscriber contributions towards that 2 million to 2.2 million subs in the year?

    謝謝您回答我的問題。Brad,你有沒有關於一些新的生態系統合作夥伴(例如 G Suite 和 AmEx)的用戶貢獻的早期數據?您對今年200萬至220萬訂閱用戶的目標貢獻有何預期?

  • And then for Neil on tax, now that you're selling the SE product bundled with tax, I'm curious how you're going to recognize tax revenue coming from SE? Is it going to be on a subscription? If so, do you expect any impact in Q3 from that SE product with tax?

    那麼,關於稅務問題,Neil,既然你現在銷售的SE產品包含稅費,我很好奇你將如何確認來自SE的稅收收入?會採取訂閱制嗎?如果是這樣,您預計該SE產品含稅後會對第三季產生什麼影響?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Michael, I'll take the first one and give Neil the second one as you had asked. In terms of an individual partner subscriber contribution, we haven't provided any of those breakdowns but I can bring it up to an overall impact. We know when one of our small business customers attaches a third-party product, that increases the retention of QBO 10 points.

    邁克爾,我會拿第一個,然後按照你的要求把第二個給尼爾。就單一合作夥伴訂閱者的貢獻而言,我們還沒有提供任何細分數據,但我可以概括一下其整體影響。我們知道,當我們的小型企業客戶添加第三方產品時,QBO 的留存率會增加 10 分。

  • And so we are big fans of these partnerships that we're announcing. Because we think it improves not only the customer experience because they can solve additional problems, but also it helps build more retention into QBO which is one of the biggest levers we have in terms of recurring revenue. So that's how I would look at it at aggregate level. Do you want to talk about the bundle?

    因此,我們非常看好我們即將宣布的這些合作關係。因為我們認為這不僅可以改善客戶體驗,因為他們可以解決更多問題,而且還有助於提高 QBO 的用戶留存率,這是我們獲得經常性收入的最大槓桿之一。這就是我從整體層面上的看法。你想談談套餐的事嗎?

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Sure. We're excited about the Turbo Tax online, QuickBooks Self-Employed bundle, and we'll see how that plays out. The way we're going to treat that, Michael, is that we're watching carefully to see how those customers engage with QuickBooks Self-Employed after tax season is over. And so for those customers who are active and who use the QuickBooks product, we will defer and allocate part of that revenue over the 12-month subscription period that they're entitled to use QuickBooks SE.

    當然。我們對TurboTax線上版和QuickBooks Self-Employed捆綁包感到興奮,讓我們拭目以待。邁克爾,我們將採取的措施是,密切關注這些客戶在報稅季結束後如何使用 QuickBooks Self-Employed。因此,對於那些活躍且使用 QuickBooks 產品的客戶,我們將把部分收入遞延並分配到他們有權使用 QuickBooks SE 的 12 個月訂閱期內。

  • We have some assumptions around what those utilization rates are that are baked into our guidance for the year, both for units and for revenue. Certainly if we see that play out differently and we see the guidance change, either by quarter or for the full year, we'll let you know. But for those customers who do activate and use the Self-Employed component of the bundle after tax season is over, we will be allocating a portion of what they paid over that 12-month period that the subscription covers.

    我們對今年的銷售和收入預期都包含了一些關於利用率的假設。當然,如果情況有所不同,或者我們對業績指引(無論是季度還是全年)做出調整,我們都會通知您。但對於那些在報稅季結束後啟動並使用套餐中「自僱人士」組件的客戶,我們將把他們在訂閱涵蓋的 12 個月期間支付的部分費用返還給他們。

  • But that's reflected in the guidance you got for the full year. Now when we come back and give you guidance for Q3 and Q4, we'll have those assumptions baked in.

    但這一點已反映在您全年收到的指導意見中。現在,當我們回來並向您提供第三季和第四季的業績指引時,我們會將這些假設考慮在內。

  • Michael Nemeroff - Analyst

    Michael Nemeroff - Analyst

  • Thanks very much, guys thank you.

    非常感謝各位。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thanks, Michael.

    謝謝你,麥可。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Yun Kim of Brean Capital. Your question, please.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Brean Capital 的 Yun Kim。請問您的問題。

  • Yun Kim - Analyst

    Yun Kim - Analyst

  • Thank you. Congrats on a solid QBO sub number, Brad. I guess last on the overall strong QBO Self-Employed performance, is that your core US QBO subs when you exclude the Self-Employed version actually grew strong in the quarter for the first time in a while, especially off somewhat of a slowdown last year.

    謝謝。恭喜布拉德,你的QBO訂閱人數取得了不錯的成績。我想最後要說的是,QBO 自僱版整體表現強勁,那就是,如果排除自僱版,你們的核心美國 QBO 訂閱用戶數量在本季度實現了近一段時間以來的首次強勁增長,尤其是在經歷了去年的某種程度的放緩之後。

  • I know it's just the one quarter, but do you expect that part of the core traditional QBO subs to rebound this year? Does the traditional QBO sub adds, is that heavily influenced by what you're doing currently with focusing on the accountant programs and whatnot?

    我知道這只是一個季度,但你認為今年這部分核心傳統QBO訂閱用戶會反彈嗎?傳統的QBO訂閱功能是否受到您目前專注於會計軟體等方面的嚴重影響?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, Yun Kim. First of all, I really appreciate that you called out the US QBO subs number. We're also very pleased with those results, and we think there's more in the barrel for us to get there.

    謝謝你,Yun Kim。首先,我非常感謝您公佈了美國QBO的訂閱用戶數量。我們對這些結果也非常滿意,我們認為我們還有更大的潛力去實現目標。

  • In fact, we talked about these innovations that will really kick in for the second of half. Talking about that first-use experience, the ability for a first-time user to come in and get to their P&L in less than five minutes we think will be really cool for funnel conversion.

    事實上,我們討論的這些創新將在下半年真正發揮作用。談到首次使用體驗,我們認為,對於銷售漏斗轉換率而言,讓首次用戶能夠在不到五分鐘的時間內進入並查看其損益表的能力將非常棒。

  • The other thing this invoicing tracking capability, think about that like the ability to have Uber or FedEx tracking for your invoice. Where you literally can go in on your phone, you send the invoice.

    還有一點就是發票追蹤功能,你可以把它想像成像 Uber 或 FedEx 那樣追蹤你的發票。你完全可以透過手機完成操作,然後發送發票。

  • It will let you if it's been opened, then it will let you know if it's been paid and then it will send you an alert when it's actually in your account. And that's getting small businesses paid 15 days faster, over two weeks faster.

    它會告訴你訂單是否已打開,然後告訴你訂單是否已被支付,最後在款項實際到達你的帳戶時向你發送提醒。這樣一來,小企業就能提前 15 天,也就是兩週多的時間收到款項。

  • Then we have other components we're adding in as well like Google calendar. The ability for someone to have their appointment in Google calendar and then click on it, send an invoice and have it flow right into QuickBooks and get paid. Those are all elements that not only help QBO outside the US, but will help accelerate our growth rate in the US.

    此外,我們還添加了其他元件,例如Google日曆。使用者可以將預約新增至 Google 日曆中,然後點擊該預約,發送發票,發票即可直接匯入 QuickBooks 並收到付款。這些因素不僅有助於QBO在美國以外的發展,也將有助於加快我們在美國的成長速度。

  • So we think there is fundamental strength in the United States. We're also looking at these non-US markets, and we think these innovations will only add some fuel to that fire.

    所以我們認為美國擁有根本的優勢。我們也關注美國以外的市場,我們認為這些創新只會進一步推動這些市場的發展。

  • Yun Kim - Analyst

    Yun Kim - Analyst

  • Okay. Great. Thank you.

    好的。偉大的。謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Kartik Mehta of Northcoast Research. Your question please.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。請問您的問題是什麼?

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Thank you. Brad, I wanted to ask you a little about tax and the success you've had with absolute zero, there's usually more competition in the marketplace whether it's this RAL funding or your competitors going to an absolute zero. Do you think you have to expand that program to even include more forms to attract customers, or do you think where you are and the strategy you're taking doesn't have to change?

    謝謝。布拉德,我想問你一些關於稅收以及你在絕對零度方面取得的成功的問題。通常,市場上的競爭會更加激烈,無論是 RAL 的資金支持,還是你的競爭對手轉向絕對零度。您認為是否需要擴展該計劃,增加更多表格來吸引客戶,還是認為您目前的情況和採取的策略無需改變?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Kartik, thank you for the question. We've been on a multi-year journey to reimagine the tax preparation process, and our goal is to eliminate 6 billion hours of tax-prep drudgery. So you don't even have to answer questions.

    Kartik,謝謝你的提問。我們歷經多年努力,致力於重新構想報稅流程,我們的目標是消除 60 億小時的報稅繁瑣工作。所以你甚至不需要回答問題。

  • Last year, we knocked off 40% of the time it takes to file an average tax return in Turbo Tax and we leaned into a leading mobile offering that no one else has. I think that is the source of our advantage and our market share gains.

    去年,我們把TurboTax平均報稅時間縮短了40%,並且推出了其他公司都沒有的領先行動服務。我認為這是我們優勢和市場佔有率成長的來源。

  • Just to give you a case in point, last year we had a competitor who matched absolute zero. Not only matched it in terms of the product line up, but they even kept it out in the market longer than we did. We ended the program March 31, they carried it through the end of tax season and we still took share.

    舉個例子來說,去年我們有個競爭對手達到了絕對零度。他們不僅在產品線方面與我們不相上下,而且產品在市場上銷售的時間甚至比我們更長。我們在 3 月 31 日結束了該計劃,他們將其延續到報稅季結束,我們仍然從中獲利。

  • So my fundamental belief is that price is not a durable competitive advantage, neither are promotions. It is the product and the experience you create for the customer, and we've got a three- or four-year head start on the players in the market by basically reimagining this next chapter.

    因此,我的基本觀點是,價格不是持久的競爭優勢,促銷也不是。關鍵在於你為客戶創造的產品和體驗,而我們透過重新構想下一個篇章,已經比市場上的其他競爭者領先了三到四年。

  • The second piece on RAL as I mentioned a few minutes ago, we pulled out of that business more than a decade ago and you can go back and look and I know you have. You and I have spent time talking about this, you can look at the do-it-yourself category growth. You can also look at our market share gains within that category, despite not having a refund anticipation loan.

    關於 RAL 的第二點,正如我幾分鐘前提到的,我們十多年前就退出了那個行業,你可以回去看看,我知道你肯定看過。你我曾花時間討論過這個問題,你可以看看DIY品類的成長。即使沒有退款預支貸款,您也可以看看我們在該類別中的市佔率成長情況。

  • So we don't believe we're dealing with anything differently this year in terms of a RAL than we have for the last 10 to 12 years. And we're fundamentally leaning into the product experience, and we think it's going to be another competitive season. But I like what our team has in the pipes, and looking forward to the January 1 kickoff.

    因此,我們認為今年我們在 RAL 方面遇到的情況與過去 10 到 12 年並沒有什麼不同。我們從根本上重視產品體驗,我們認為這將是另一個競爭激烈的賽季。但我很看好我們球隊的陣容,期待1月1日的揭幕戰。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Then, Brad, I just want to go back to what you were saying about the Path Act to make sure I understood. Were you saying that even with the Path Act, you anticipate that most refunds will be around the same time that customers got them last year? Or was the point that the timing of the difference, whenever the IRS starts processing them, will be the same?

    然後,布萊德,我想再跟你確認你剛才關於《Path Act》的講話,確保我理解正確。您的意思是,即使有了《PATH法案》,您預計大多數退款的到帳時間仍將與去年客戶收到退款的時間大致相同嗎?或者說,重點在於,無論何時國稅局開始處理這些差額,時間上的差異都會相同?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, the overall -- if you put all 150 million returns that the IRS will process roughly in the year, 9 out of 10 of those will actually get a refund back in 21 days or less. The Path Act does actually narrow in on those who do earned income tax credit and those who have a child credit, and they are going to have that refund held back till February 15.

    總的來說——如果你把美國國稅局一年內大約要處理的 1.5 億份報稅表都算進去,其中十分之九的人實際上會在 21 天或更短的時間內收到退款。《PATH法案》實際上針對的是那些享受勞動所得稅抵免和兒童稅收抵免的人,他們的退稅將被延遲到2月15日。

  • So for those who come in early, have those qualifications and are hoping to get their refund sooner, they are going to be held back for a week or two here until February 15. So that will be an impacted group. But our goal is to help those individuals understand the status of their refund, keep them apprised and make sure they have a great experience.

    因此,對於那些早早前來、符合資格並希望盡快獲得退款的人來說,他們將被保留一到兩週,直到 2 月 15 日。所以這將是受影響的群體之一。但我們的目標是幫助這些人了解他們的退款狀態,讓他們隨時了解情況,並確保他們有良好的體驗。

  • But fundamentally, I don't think they're going to shape or shift the overall tax season and that's our philosophy going in and we just want to make sure we're there for these customers. And I don't think the refund anticipation loan honestly is going to shape the overall season, I think it's basically going to be a period of time and then we're going to get past that.

    但從根本上講,我認為他們不會影響或改變整個報稅季,這也是我們的理念,我們只想確保我們能為這些客戶提供服務。而且我認為退款預支貸款不會對整個賽季產生影響,我認為這基本上只是一段時間,然後我們會度過難關。

  • Kartik Mehta - Analyst

    Kartik Mehta - Analyst

  • Thanks, Brad. I appreciate it.

    謝謝你,布拉德。謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • All right. Thank you.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Sterling Auty of JPMorgan. Your question, please.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的斯特林·奧蒂。請問您的問題。

  • Sterling Auty - Analyst

    Sterling Auty - Analyst

  • Thanks. Hello, guys. You talked about the strength in the QBO subs internationally, but I'm just curious what your thoughts were around the additions here in the US in the quarter relative to your expectation?

    謝謝。大家好。您談到了QBO在國際市場的強勁成長,但我很好奇您對本季美國市場的新增用戶數量與預期相比有何看法?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Sterling, as I shared a few minutes ago when Yun Kim asked about the United States QBO subs, we felt good with the strength in QBO in the United States. But we feel even more optimistic as we look at the balance of the year because the new innovations that are hitting we think are going to add more fuel to the fire. So I think if you look at QBO core in the United States, it's continuing to produce strong results with some cool innovations coming.

    史特林,正如我幾分鐘前在尹金詢問美國QBO訂閱用戶時所說,我們對美國QBO的強勁勢頭感到滿意。但展望今年剩餘時間,我們更加樂觀,因為我們認為正在湧現的新創新將為這股熱潮火上加油。所以我覺得,如果你看看美國市場的QBO核心業務,它正在持續取得強勁的業績,並且即將推出一些很棒的創新。

  • The second piece is, we have QuickBooks Self-Employed that's going to add more fuel to the fire in the United States. And of course we do have desktop migrators.

    第二點是,QuickBooks Self-Employed 將為美國的這場危機火上加油。當然,我們也有桌上型系統遷移服務商。

  • In the first quarter, we got a little bit of a bump there with these operating system upgrades, the migrators were up about 50% year over year, last year they were up 25% overall. So that's always a little bit of tailwind as well. But we feel good about the United States and the QBO subs outlook as we hook look through the balance of the fiscal year.

    第一季度,由於作業系統升級,我們獲得了一些成長,遷移用戶數量年增約 50%,而去年同期整體成長了 25%。所以這總算也算是小小的順風吧。但展望本財年剩餘時間,我們對美國和QBO訂閱用戶前景感到樂觀。

  • Sterling Auty - Analyst

    Sterling Auty - Analyst

  • then just one follow-up. In terms of some of the new functionality that you're bringing into QBO, do you expect any of that will actually have a material positive impact on the renewal rates as well?

    然後只需要一次後續跟進。就您在 QBO 中引入的一些新功能而言,您是否預計其中任何一項會對續約率產生實質的正面影響?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • We hope so. One of the things we do know is that there's an important problem that a customer has, and it's one of the top things they request and then we solve that problem well with the new feature, it improves retention. And we fundamentally believe that the things we've narrowed in on are some of the most important and frequently asked feature requests.

    我們希望如此。我們知道的一件事是,客戶存在一個重要問題,這是他們最迫切的需求之一,而我們透過新功能很好地解決了這個問題,從而提高了客戶留存率。我們深信,我們所關注的這些功能需求是最重要、最常被問到的功能。

  • So I feel good that the team not only has narrowed in on the right problems, but I also like the early results we're getting back in terms of customer feedback on those new features. So our goal is to continue to push retention up, and I think it will continue to help us do that.

    所以我很高興團隊不僅找到了正確的問題所在,而且我也很喜歡我們從客戶對這些新功能的回饋中獲得的早期成果。因此,我們的目標是繼續提高用戶留存率,我認為它將繼續幫助我們實現這一目標。

  • Sterling Auty - Analyst

    Sterling Auty - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Our next question comes from Jim MacDonald of First Analysis. Your line is open.

    謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自 First Analysis 公司的 Jim MacDonald。您的線路已開通。

  • Jim Macdonald - Analyst

    Jim Macdonald - Analyst

  • Thanks, guys. Could you give us a little more on the quarterly shift? You said 1 point of tax into the January quarter, and could you talk about what the -- is that just taken out of the next quarter? 1% of what?

    謝謝各位。能再詳細介紹一下季度輪替的情況嗎?您提到一月份季度要增加 1 個百分點的稅,您能說說這部分稅款是怎麼回事嗎——是直接從下一季扣除的嗎?1% 的什麼?

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Hello, Jim, this is Neil. The way the calendar falls in 2017, the 31st of January is actually on a Tuesday. In 2016, it fell on a Saturday and we know a lot of people do their tax returns over the weekend and actually get to actually file them on Monday.

    你好,吉姆,我是尼爾。根據 2017 年的日曆安排,1 月 31 日實際上是星期二。2016 年,報稅截止日期是星期六,我們知道很多人會在週末處理報稅事宜,然後在星期一正式提交。

  • So when we factor in for 2017 getting the full 31 days of January into our first quarter, it would make our growth rate the way we look at it for our Turbo Tax revenue in Q2 about a point, a point or so higher than the growth rate we posted for last year. So I know getting seasonality right on Consumer Tax is always a challenge for you guys. So just to let you know, the way we see it playing out is we would see our second quarter growth in Consumer Tax about a point or so better than the growth rate we posted last year.

    因此,如果我們把 2017 年 1 月的 31 天全部計入第一季度,那麼我們第二季度 Turbo Tax 收入的成長率(以我們看待的方式)將比去年公佈的成長率高出約 1 個百分點。我知道對你們來說,準確計算消費者稅的季節性因素始終是一個挑戰。所以,我只是想告訴大家,我們預期第二季消費者稅收的成長將比去年同期的成長率高出約一個百分點。

  • Just because there are a couple of extra days customers can actually file their returns, taking into the weekend into account and getting them into our Q2. It's a total shift from Q3 to Q2.

    因為客戶實際上有額外的幾天時間可以提交退稅申請,包括週末,這樣我們就可以把退稅申請納入第二季。從第三季到第二季度,情況發生了徹底的轉變。

  • It doesn't change the full year outlook. It doesn't mean there are more taxpayers or anything like that, it's just an anomaly with the way the calendar falls and the way consumers have come to work on their returns.

    這不會改變全年的展望。這並不意味著納稅人數量更多或類似的事情,只是由於日曆的安排和消費者處理報稅的方式而產生的異常情況。

  • Jim Macdonald - Analyst

    Jim Macdonald - Analyst

  • But just to clarify, so last year there was a shift, a big shift, so you had a big growth of Consumer Tax due to the shift back. So are you saying it's going to be 1% more than the 30% last year?

    但為了澄清一下,去年發生了很大的變化,由於這種變化,消費者稅收大幅增加。所以你的意思是說,今年的增幅會比去年的30%高出1%?

  • Neil Williams - CFO

    Neil Williams - CFO

  • Yes. Last year was actually a return to more normalized trends after the year before that having a delay with the IRS opening to receive returns. So we view 2016 as being a more normalized Q2 for us in terms of Consumer Tax revenue, and so, yes, I'd say a point or so above that.

    是的。去年實際上是恢復了較正常的趨勢,此前一年由於美國國稅局延遲開放接收報稅,導致報稅流程出現延誤。因此,我們認為 2016 年第二季在消費者稅收方面更加正常化,所以,是的,我會說比那高出一個百分點左右。

  • Jim Macdonald - Analyst

    Jim Macdonald - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

    好的。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Patrick [Bogo] of [Rhett] Research. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Rhett Research 的 Patrick [Bogo]。您的線路已開通。

  • Patrick Bogo - Analyst

    Patrick Bogo - Analyst

  • Hello, guys. Great quarter. Thank you so much for taking my question. Can we just circle back on the desktop unit growth and why the drivers that we saw this quarter wouldn't persist through the fiscal year?

    大家好。很棒的季度。非常感謝您回答我的問題。我們能否再回顧一下桌上型電腦銷售成長的情況,以及為什麼本季我們看到的成長動力無法持續到本財年結束?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Patrick, I'm going to ask you to repeat the first part again because you cut in and out a little bit and I couldn't hear what the particular product line you were asking about was, please.

    派崔克,請你再重複一次第一部分,因為你說話斷斷續續的,我聽不清楚你具體問的是哪條產品線。

  • Patrick Bogo - Analyst

    Patrick Bogo - Analyst

  • Sure. So on the desktop unit growth, why the drivers that we saw this quarter wouldn't persist through the fiscal year.

    當然。那麼,關於桌上型電腦銷售成長,為什麼我們本季看到的驅動因素不會持續到本財年結束。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Got it. Okay. Well, we fundamentally believe that a lot of the goodness we saw was the result of the operating system changes from both Windows and Apple. We saw Windows 10 upgrades, and we saw the Mac OS upgrades driving a lot of this early strength.

    知道了。好的。我們從根本上認為,我們所看到的許多好處都是 Windows 和 Apple 作業系統變革的結果。我們看到了 Windows 10 的升級,也看到了 Mac OS 的升級推動了早期強勁勢頭。

  • And so we think that a lot of that if you just look at the natural upgrade cycle has probably occurred, there will be a little bit of strength potentially here in Q2. But as we look at it for the balance of the year, we don't think it's going to persist through all four quarters. So that's really the hypothesis we have at this point.

    因此我們認為,如果你只看自然升級週期,很多情況可能已經發生,第二季可能會出現一些強勁成長。但展望今年剩餘時間,我們認為這種情況不會持續整個第四季度。所以,這就是我們目前提出的假設。

  • Patrick Bogo - Analyst

    Patrick Bogo - Analyst

  • Got it. Can I just ask a quick follow up on the tax business, just to help the non-US based analysts.

    知道了。我能否就稅務業務快速詢問一下,以便幫助非美國地區的分析師。

  • So tax simplification, if that were to happen, I'd probably see that driving share shift to the DIY category. But probably also driving ASPs a little bit lower. Is that right?

    所以,如果稅收簡化政策得以實施,我可能會看到駕車出行份額轉向自行駕車出行。但可能也會略微拉低平均售價。是這樣嗎?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, first of all, we do agree with you. We think tax simplification would drive more people to basically do the taxes themselves. In terms of whether it would drive ASP lower, there are other value-added services that we provide that basically help consumers say hey, I'm willing to pay for that particular service, and so we don't fundamentally believe that it ultimately leads you to a lower ASP.

    首先,我們同意你的觀點。我們認為簡化稅制會促使更多人自行報稅。至於這是否會降低平均售價,我們提供的其他增值服務基本上可以幫助消費者說“嘿,我願意為這項特定服務付費”,因此我們從根本上不認為這最終會導致平均售價降低。

  • It basically puts more energy into what are the other services you can offer a tax filer that they're willing to pay more for. Those are the things our team has been leaning into over the last couple years.

    它基本上把更多精力放在了你可以向報稅者提供哪些他們願意支付更多費用的其他服務上。過去幾年,我們的團隊一直致力於這些方面。

  • So I would believe with the first concept. We don't believe it naturally suppresses ASP on the second concept. It just puts more innovation into areas beyond the actual tax filing itself.

    所以我相信第一個概念。我們認為它不會自然地抑制第二個概念中的 ASP。這只是將更多創新應用到報稅以外的領域。

  • Patrick Bogo - Analyst

    Patrick Bogo - Analyst

  • Awesome. Thank you very much.

    驚人的。非常感謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • You're welcome. Thank you, Patrick.

    不客氣。謝謝你,派崔克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from Michael Millman of Millman Research Associates. Your question, please.

    下一個問題來自 Millman Research Associates 的 Michael Millman。請問您的問題。

  • Michael Millman - Analyst

    Michael Millman - Analyst

  • So more tax. I guess the path if it's a concern at all, is basically the word gets out on the street and people delay but no big thing in terms of full year. Would you agree with that, or at least certainly you'd agree with the second part.

    所以要多繳稅。我想,如果真有什麼問題的話,那就是消息傳開後,人們會拖延,但就全年而言,不會造成太大影響。你同意嗎?或至少你一定會同意第二部分。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, Michael, we agree with the second part. I do know there are families that are hoping to get their money as soon as they can and that's important, so we don't take that lightly. Neither does the IRS or the rest of industry.

    是的,邁克爾,我們同意第二部分。我知道有些家庭希望盡快拿到錢,這很重要,所以我們不會掉以輕心。美國國稅局和其他行業也持相同觀點。

  • So we want to try to help them get that. But I think to your second point, it doesn't change the outcome of the full year and that's what we're looking at.

    所以我們希望盡力幫助他們實現這個目標。但我認為,對於你的第二點,這不會改變全年的結果,而這正是我們所關注的。

  • Michael Millman - Analyst

    Michael Millman - Analyst

  • Okay. So some other questions then. I guess version and retention time type of questions. I was wondering if you'd give us some feel and maybe more than a feel on what the conversion -- what you're seeing in conversion from people going to the website, or are you in fact seeing more people going to the -- driving to the website?

    好的。那麼還有其他問題嗎?我猜是關於版本和保留時間之類的問題。我想請您談談轉換率的情況,或者更確切地說,您觀察到的轉換率是多少——是人們訪問網站的轉換率,還是實際上更多的人是透過網路(開車)造訪網站的?

  • To what extent are you seeing conversion changes in free to price? And then I have a couple retention questions. But will start there.

    您認為免費到付費的轉換率變化幅度有多大?然後我還有幾個關於客戶留存率的問題。但就從這裡開始吧。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay, Michael. First of all, I want to make sure. Are we still on the tax topic here?

    好的,麥可。首先,我想確認一下。我們還討論的是稅務話題嗎?

  • Michael Millman - Analyst

    Michael Millman - Analyst

  • Oh, yes, on tax.

    哦,是的,要繳稅。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay. Got you. I anticipated that. But obviously we don't have any real conversion and retention numbers to talk about at this moment because we haven't kicked off the new season.

    好的。抓到你了。我預料到了。但很顯然,目前我們還沒有任何真正的轉換率和留存率數據可以討論,因為新賽季還沒有開始。

  • But if you go back to our Investor Day deck that we shared in the fall, we laid out some pretty good detail on the funnel and it's actually on page 63 of our Investor Day deck just to let you know the specifics. And it talked about the fact that we had roughly 92 million people who came in and visited TurboTax.com through tax season. And then it talks about how many of those converted into log-ins, then actually filed a return, and then the net-net on that.

    但如果你回顧我們在秋季分享的投資者日演示文稿,我們詳細闡述了銷售漏斗,實際上它位於投資者日演示文稿的第 63 頁,只是為了讓你了解具體細節。報告也提到,在報稅季期間,大約有 9,200 萬人造訪了 TurboTax.com。然後它討論了其中有多少用戶轉化為登入用戶,然後實際提交了納稅申報表,最後是淨額。

  • And you'll see that we laid in there basically the improvement to conversion at every step along the way and then the ultimate impact in retention. And I feel good about that, and then the following page talks to your free to paid.

    你會看到,我們基本上在每個步驟中都專注於提高轉換率,最終提高用戶留存率。我對此感覺很好,然後下一頁將討論如何從免費升級到付費。

  • Obviously we introduced free back in 2004, 2005, and we were getting about $29 a return and making about a 60% margin back then. Last year even with the very aggressive absolute zero, we made $49 a return and margins were around 65%. And our free to pay continues to be a muscle we have defined and developed.

    顯然,我們在 2004 年、2005 年推出了免費服務,當時我們每次大約能獲得 29 美元的回報,利潤率約為 60%。去年即使在非常激進的絕對零度下,我們也獲得了 49 美元的回報,利潤率約為 65%。我們不斷培養和發展「自由付費」的能力。

  • We haven't broken down the actual percent of how many of them we convert, but you can look at the aggregate number and see that not only are we driving the revenue per return but we're also improving the margin. So that data is in that Investor Day material, and hopefully you'll get the chance to take a look at that and it will give you a little more specifics on each of the key areas.

    我們還沒有細分特定的轉換率,但你可以查看總數字,你會發現我們不僅提高了每次投資的收益,而且還提高了利潤率。這些數據都在投資者日資料中,希望您有機會查看一下,它能讓您更詳細地了解每個關鍵領域的情況。

  • Michael Millman - Analyst

    Michael Millman - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from of Shankar Subramaniam of Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

    我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Shankar Subramaniam。您的線路已開通。

  • Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

    Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

  • Hello, thanks for taking my question. I'm asking the question on behalf of Kash. Just on the online payment and online payroll, can you talk about the attach rates that you're seeing right now relative to FY16?

    您好,感謝您回答我的問題。我替卡什問這個問題。僅就線上支付和線上薪資而言,您能否談談您目前看到的附加率與 2016 財年相比的情況?

  • And where do you see that going especially given the growth in SE? Do you see an inflection point where you can actually see the attach rate growing from here?

    鑑於東南亞地區的成長,您認為它未來的發展方向是什麼?你認為是否存在一個拐點,從這個拐點開始,附加率會真正開始成長?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure, Shankar. First of all, let me start with the reason why we try to talk about penetration rates is because we think that's the ultimate payoff, and that leads to ecosystem revenue growth. So right now, there's two big numbers that we look at.

    當然可以,Shankar。首先,我想先說明我們之所以要討論滲透率,是因為我們認為這是最終的回報,它能帶來生態系收入的成長。所以現在,我們主要關注兩個數字。

  • One is what's the QBO ecosystem revenue growth, and it's 26% which is up a little from last quarter. And then the second piece is, what are the penetration rates of payroll and payments into the QuickBooks Online base. And those are currently 15% for payroll and 6% for payments. Lots of upside opportunity, but good strength.

    一是QBO生態系營收成長情況,為26%,較上一季略有成長。其次,QuickBooks Online 的使用者群體中,薪資和支付的滲透率是多少?目前其中 15% 用於薪資支出,6% 用於其他支付。上漲空間巨大,但整體實力也很強。

  • Now one of the leading indicators is an attach rate. We're trying to pull back on that because attach rates get muddied. They get muddied because QuickBooks Self-Employed by definition does not have a payroll, they don't have any employees.

    現在,附加率是主要指標之一。我們正在努力減少這種做法,因為這會使附加率變得難以確定。它們之所以會變得混亂,是因為 QuickBooks 自僱版根據定義沒有薪資單,它們沒有任何員工。

  • But they go into the QuickBooks Online base, and if you start doing the math you'll say, uh oh, it looks like we've got a problem here. Attach is going down, but it's not. It's QuickBooks Self-Employed is becoming a bigger part of the mix.

    但是它們會被導入 QuickBooks Online 基礎版,如果你開始計算,你就會說,哦哦,看來我們這裡遇到問題了。Attach 正在下降,但實際上並沒有。QuickBooks Self-Employed 正在成為越來越重要的組成部分。

  • The other thing that throws you off if you talk about attach rates is, we will do promotions at times whether it's a buy now without a bundle or it might even be something with accountants who in turn then get the customer to start to think about payroll and payments down the road. And those can muddy the waters, but I'll answer the question on what are the attach rates right now.

    如果你談論附加費率,還有一點容易讓人困惑,那就是我們有時會進行促銷活動,無論是直接購買而無需捆綁銷售,還是與會計師合作,從而讓客戶開始考慮未來的工資和付款問題。這些因素可能會使情況變得複雜,但我會回答目前附加率是多少這個問題。

  • It was 15% in the quarter for payroll, and it was 9% for payments. But you have to put that caveat next to it, which is we had a big mix of QuickBooks Self-Employed and we also had some growth outside the United States where we don't yet offer payroll and payments. And those numbers are going to make the attach rates look a little bit distorted.

    本季薪資支出佔 15%,支付支出佔 9%。但你必須同時加上這個注意事項,那就是我們有很多 QuickBooks Self-Employed 用戶,而且我們在美國以外的地區也有一些增長,但我們目前還沒有在這些地區提供工資和支付服務。這些數據會讓附加率看起來有點失真。

  • Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

    Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

  • Got it.

    知道了。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • So I would stay focused on 26% ecosystem growth which is up from 25%, that's the real health indicator.

    因此,我會繼續關注 26% 的生態系統成長率(高於先前的 25%),這才是真正的健康指標。

  • Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

    Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

  • Got it. One more question on the QBO sub growth for FY17. Given that fiscal -- the Q1 was about your expectation and all the other international growth in SE seeing strong traction, why not -- what's the put and take about exceeding your expectations for the FY17? Is it do you see more optimism that that's probably a conservative estimate and you can actually exceed it, or is that more realistic target, even with your new data?

    知道了。關於2017財年QBO訂閱用戶成長情況,還有一個問題。鑑於本財年——第一季業績符合您的預期,而且東南亞其他國際市場也取得了強勁增長,為什麼不呢——對於2017財年能否超出您的預期,您有什麼看法?您認為這或許是一個保守的估計,實際上可以超過這個估計值,還是說即使有了新的數據,這仍然是一個更現實的目標?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • If you go back and look at what it would take for us to deliver the 2 million to 2.2 million subs, it would take subscriber growth between 32% to 45%. And right now, we just clocked 41% in Q1 which is an uptick from last quarter. And then we did walk through some of these innovations we have in the market now that we've introduced that we think gives us confidence that we're going to be able to deliver that 2 million to 2.2 million.

    如果回顧一下,為了達到 200 萬到 220 萬訂閱用戶的目標,我們需要 32% 到 45% 的訂閱用戶成長率。目前,我們第一季的成長率為 41%,比上一季有所成長。然後,我們詳細介紹了我們目前在市場上推出的一些創新產品,我們認為這些創新產品讓我們有信心實現 200 萬到 220 萬美元的目標。

  • It's still too early in the game for us to say hey, our confidence is now that we're going to go past that 2 million to 2.2 million, but hopefully it gives you enough you assurance to say you can see momentum in the base growing and you can hear the innovations coming. And honestly, it gives me a little bit of confidence to hear that the question is now are you going to hit the number, as in now it's actually are you going to exceed the number. We feel good about the things in the pipeline, but it's too early for us to say that we're going to be looking at raising guidance.

    現在說「我們有信心突破 200 萬到 220 萬」還為時過早,但希望這能給你足夠的信心,讓你看到用戶基礎的成長勢頭,並聽到創新即將到來。說實話,聽到現在的問題是“你能不能達到這個數字”,也就是“你能不能超過這個數字”,這讓我稍微安心了一些。我們對正在籌備的專案感到滿意,但現在說我們會考慮上調業績預期還為時過早。

  • Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

    Shankar Subramaniam - Analyst

  • Got it. Thanks.

    知道了。謝謝。

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Okay.

    好的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, I'm not showing any further questions. Would you like to close with any additional remarks?

    女士們先生們,我不再回答任何問題了。還有什麼補充說明嗎?

  • Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

    Brad Smith - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, thanks, Lateef. I'll tell you, we're encouraged with the strong start to the fiscal year, and we really do feel like we have some momentum building with some new innovations in the market. With that said, you all know us well. Our biggest quarters are still ahead of us, but we are looking forward to that whistle blowing and getting into peak season.

    是的,謝謝你,拉蒂夫。說實話,我們對本財年的強勁開局感到鼓舞,而且我們確實感覺隨著市場上一些新創新產品的推出,我們正在積蓄一些發展勢頭。話雖如此,你們都很了解我們。我們最大的季度還在後面,但我們期待著旺季的到來。

  • I want to thank everybody for your questions today, and for those of you who are in the United States and celebrating Thanksgiving next week, we want to wish you a happy holiday. For everyone else, take care and we'll speak with you soon. Thank you.

    感謝大家今天提出的問題,對於身在美國並將於下週慶祝感恩節的朋友們,我們祝你們節日快樂。其他各位,請多保重,我們很快會再聯絡。謝謝。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call.

    女士們、先生們,感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。