直覺電腦 (INTU) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Latif, and I will be your conference facilitator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Intuit's second-quarter FY16 conference call.

午安.我叫拉蒂夫，我將擔任本次會議的主持人。此時此刻，我謹代表 Intuit 公司歡迎各位參加 2016 財年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Matt Rhodes, Intuit's Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Rhodes?

現在我將把會議交給 Intuit 的投資者關係副總裁 Matt Rhodes。羅茲先生？

Thank you very much. I appreciate it. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Intuit's second-quarter FY16 conference call. I'm here with Brad Smith, our Chairman and CEO, and Neil Williams, our CFO.

非常感謝。謝謝。各位下午好，歡迎參加 Intuit 2016 財年第二季電話會議。我今天和我們的董事長兼執行長布拉德史密斯以及我們的財務長尼爾威廉斯在一起。

Before we start, I'd like to remind everyone that our remarks will include forward-looking statements. There are a number of factors that could cause Intuit's results to differ materially from our expectations. You can learn more about these risks in the press release we issued earlier this afternoon, our Form 10-K for FY15 and our other SEC filings. All of those documents are available on the investor relations page of Intuit's website at Intuit.com. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，我們的發言將包含前瞻性陳述。有許多因素可能導致 Intuit 的表現與我們的預期有重大差異。您可以查看我們今天下午早些時候發布的新聞稿、2015 財年 10-K 表格以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件，以了解有關這些風險的更多資訊。所有這些文件都可以在 Intuit.com 網站的投資者關係頁面上找到。我們不承擔更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務。

Some of the numbers in this report are presented on a non-GAAP basis. We've reconciled the comparable GAAP and non-GAAP numbers in today's press release. Unless otherwise noted, all growth rates refer to the current period versus the comparable prior-year period, and the business metrics and associated growth rates refer to worldwide business metrics. Also, all reported results and guidance, except GAAP net income and EPS, exclude Demandforce, QuickBase, and Quicken, which have been declared held for sale and reclassified to discontinued operations. A copy of our prepared remarks and supplemental financial information will be available on our website after this call ends. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Brad.

本報告中的部分資料以非GAAP準則列示。我們在今天的新聞稿中對可比較的GAAP和非GAAP資料進行了核對。除非另有說明，否則所有成長率均指目前期間與去年同期相比的成長率，業務指標及相關成長率均指全球業務指標。此外，除 GAAP 淨收入和每股盈餘外，所有報告的業績和指引均不包括 Demandforce、QuickBase 和 Quicken，這三家公司已被宣布持有待售並重新分類為終止經營業務。本次電話會議結束後，我們將在網站上提供我們準備好的演講稿和補充財務資訊。那麼，我就把電話交給布萊德了。

All right, thank you, Matt, and thanks to all of you for joining us. We are out of the gates strong in the first half of FY16. We grew revenue 23% in the second quarter, exceeded our guidance across the board, and we're on pace to deliver against our full-year outlook.

好的，謝謝你，馬特，也謝謝各位的參與。我們在2016財年上半年開局強勁。第二季我們的營收成長了 23%，全面超出預期，並且有望實現全年目標。

Now, we know tax is on everybody's mind at this point in the year, so let me start there first. Overall, our tax strategy is on track. We are focused on expanding the do-it-yourself software category, while driving customer growth and share gain, particularly in the simple returns segment. TurboTax online units grew 12% through February 20, with total units up 9%. We are growing our acceptable e-files season to date faster than the category, which implies that we are once again taking share.

現在，我們知道每年的這個時候，稅收都是大家最關心的問題，所以就讓我先從這裡開始談起吧。總體而言，我們的稅務策略進展順利。我們專注於拓展自助式軟體類別，同時推動客戶成長和市場佔有率提升，尤其是在簡易退貨領域。截至 2 月 20 日，TurboTax 線上用戶數量增加了 12%，總用戶數量增加了 9%。到目前為止，我們可接受的電子申報數量成長速度超過了行業平均水平，這意味著我們再次搶佔了市場份額。

Our growth is being driven by product innovation, as we continue our journey to reimagine tax-preparation. This year, TurboTax expanded its data import capability and pursuit of taxes are done. Approximately 75% of taxpayers will be able to digitally import W-2s directly into the product this year, up from 68% last year. TurboTax securely imports tax information directly from more than 1.4 million employers and financial institutions, saving considerable time, and improving accuracy for the taxpayer.

我們不斷創新，致力於重新定義報稅方式，而產品創新正是推動我們成長的動力。今年，TurboTax 擴展了其資料導入功能，稅務申報工作也已完成。今年，約有 75% 的納稅人將能夠直接將 W-2 表格以數位方式匯入該產品中，高於去年的 68%。TurboTax 可直接從超過 140 萬家雇主和金融機構安全地匯入稅務訊息，從而節省大量時間，並提高納稅人的準確性。

This season all mobile and online customers can snap a photo of their W-2, and TurboTax will import the information into their tax return, whether they're on a phone, a tablet, or a computer, which also saves time and reduces errors. Our TurboTax SmartLook feature is resonating with customers. This new feature quickly connect users with TurboTax experts, who will answer the questions in real-time, completely free.

本季所有行動端和線上用戶都可以拍攝 W-2 表格的照片，TurboTax 會將資訊匯入到他們的報稅表中，無論他們使用的是手機、平板電腦還是電腦，這既節省了時間，又減少了錯誤。我們的TurboTax SmartLook功能受到了用戶的好評。這項新功能可讓用戶快速聯繫到 TurboTax 專家，專家將即時免費解答用戶的問題。

And for the second consecutive year, Americans with more straightforward tax situations are able to use TurboTax to file both their federal 1040-A or their 1040-EZ returns as well as their state returns for free. This is a highly compelling offer for the 60 million Americans, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck, and count on their tax refund as the biggest check that they will receive all year.

連續第二年，稅務狀況較簡單的美國人可以使用 TurboTax 免費申報聯邦 1040-A 或 1040-EZ 表格以及州稅申報表。對於 6000 萬美國人來說，這是一個極具吸引力的提議，他們中的許多人都是月光族，把退稅當作一年中收到的最大一筆收入。

I am really excited about our pace of innovation. While there's plenty of time left on the clock, if you look at the scoreboard so far, you'll see that IRS data through February 19 shows the self prepared e-files were up about 3%, contrasted with assisted e-files being down 5%. And as I mentioned earlier, our e-file growth and other third-party data indicates that we are gaining share so far this season.

我對我們的創新速度感到非常興奮。雖然時間還很充裕，但如果你看看目前的計票結果，你會發現，截至 2 月 19 日，美國國稅局的數據顯示，自行準備的電子報稅表增加了約 3%，而接受協助的電子報稅表則下降了 5%。正如我之前提到的，我們的電子申報成長和其他第三方數據表明，本季到目前為止，我們的市場份額正在不斷擴大。

Looking beyond TurboTax online, our TurboTax desktop units are roughly flat, and the data suggests we're gaining share and winning back customers who may have gone elsewhere last year. On the pro tax side of the business, we've seen positive early trends in customer acquisition and returns growth, as well. As I always say at this time of the year, it's early in the season for our tax businesses, but I like the strong start that we've delivered so far. We're staying agile, and I'm very pleased with our product and our customer experience.

除了 TurboTax 線上版之外，我們的 TurboTax 桌面版銷量大致持平，數據顯示我們正在擴大市場份額，並贏回去年可能轉向其他品牌的客戶。在稅務相關業務方面，我們也看到了客戶獲取和回報成長的正面早期趨勢。正如我每年這個時候都會說的那樣，現在對我們的稅務業務來說還處於旺季，但我對我們目前取得的良好開局感到滿意。我們保持靈活應變，我對我們的產品和客戶體驗非常滿意。

Now, let's talk small business. We continue to generate strong new user growth in our online ecosystem. Over 80% of QuickBooks online customers were new to the Intuit franchise once again this quarter. Total QuickBooks paying customer growth was also healthy in the quarter, as our desktop business posted strong results as well.

現在，我們來談談小企業。我們的線上生態系統持續保持強勁的新用戶成長。本季度，QuickBooks Online 的客戶中，超過 80% 的人都是 Intuit 品牌的新用戶。本季 QuickBooks 付費客戶總數成長良好，我們的桌面業務也取得了強勁的業績。

QuickBooks Online continues to build momentum. Total QuickBooks Online subscribers grew 49% in the second quarter. This resulted in the addition of nearly 100,000 QBO subscribers in the quarter, bringing us to 1.257 million paid subs worldwide at the end of January. Roughly 50,000 of our QBO subscribers are using QuickBooks Self-Employed which is up from 35,000 last quarter.

QuickBooks Online持續維持成長動能。第二季 QuickBooks Online 用戶總數增加了 49%。該季度QBO新增近10萬訂閱用戶，截至1月底，全球付費訂閱用戶達125.7萬。大約有 50,000 名 QBO 訂閱用戶正在使用 QuickBooks Self-Employed，比上一季的 35,000 名有所增加。

Outside the US, QBO subs grew roughly 80% to 230,000 paying subscribers, which is in line with our expectations. We remain focused on growing customers globally. We've built good momentum in the UK, Australia and Brazil, and we recently went live in France.

在美國以外，QBO 的付費用戶成長了約 80%，達到 23 萬，這與我們的預期相符。我們將繼續專注於拓展全球客戶。我們在英國、澳洲和巴西已經取得了良好的發展勢頭，最近我們在法國也正式上線了。

We continue to get smarter as we expand our global footprint. We're tuning the local game plan in each country to achieve our targets for lifetime value, versus customer acquisition costs. Near-term this is dampening subscriber growth a bit in India and in Canada, but we have clear plans in place to drive healthy profitable growth in these two markets over the long term.

隨著我們全球業務的拓展，我們也不斷變得更加智慧。我們正在調整每個國家的在地化策略，以實現客戶終身價值目標，同時降低客戶獲取成本。短期內，這會稍微抑制我們在印度和加拿大的用戶成長，但我們已經制定了明確的計劃，以在長期內推動這兩個市場的健康獲利成長。

Finally, our expanding QBO ecosystem gives us confidence that growth will remain healthy. 85,000 accountants who use the accountant version of QBO also have at least three clients using QuickBooks Online. That's more than double the number of accountants with at least three clients versus last year. And we now have over 2,000 apps that integrate with QBO in our marketplace, which is more than double the number we had a year ago.

最後，我們不斷擴展的 QBO 生態系統讓我們有信心保持健康的成長動能。85,000 名使用 QBO 會計師版本的會計師，至少有 3 位客戶也在使用 QuickBooks Online。與去年相比，擁有至少三個客戶的會計師人數增加了一倍以上。現在，我們的應用市場中有超過 2000 個應用可以與 QBO 集成，是去年同期數量的兩倍多。

13% of QBO subscribers are now using a third-party application, up from 8% 12 months ago. We know that retention of a QBO customer who also uses a third-party app is better, which increases lifetime value. The QBO subscriber growth remains near 50% this quarter, so we remain confident in our full-year outlook, as well as the outlook we gave for FY17. In fact, we saw QBO subs growth during the last quarter of this month of this quarter become a peak for us, and that is a good news story, because that is the peak season for adding QBO subscribers.

QBO 用戶中有 13% 現在使用第三方應用程序，高於 12 個月前的 8%。我們知道，同時使用第三方應用程式的 QBO 客戶留存率更高，這提高了客戶終身價值。本季 QBO 用戶成長率仍接近 50%，因此我們對全年前景以及 2017 財年的前景仍然充滿信心。事實上，我們看到 QBO 用戶成長在本季度最後一個季度達到了峰值，這是一個好消息，因為這是 QBO 用戶成長的旺季。

As a result, we're raising the low end of our QBO subscriber outlook for the remainder of this fiscal year. The range is now 1.475 million to 1.5 million subscribers.

因此，我們將提高本財年剩餘時間內 QBO 用戶預期的下限。目前用戶數在 147.5 萬至 150 萬之間。

Now, as a reminder, at investor day, we shared our expectation that QBO subscribers would grow better than 40% on average between FY15 and FY17, and that would enable us to exit FY17 with between 2 million to 2.2 million subs. Given this quarter's performance, we remain absolutely on track to deliver against this longer-term outlook.

提醒一下，在投資者日上，我們曾表示，預計 QBO 的訂閱用戶在 2015 財年至 2017 財年期間平均成長將超過 40%，這將使我們能夠在 2017 財年結束時擁有 200 萬至 220 萬訂閱用戶。鑑於本季的業績，我們完全有信心實現這一長期目標。

So when you hit the total key, it has been a strong first half of the year. I'm inspired by our team's commitment to reimagine the tax prep experience in both our consumer and our professional tax businesses, and there's much more innovation in store from these teams over the next few years. And in small business, customer growth remains strong, as we continue to focus on global customer acquisitions, enabled by our cloud solution. So with that overview, I'm going to turn it over to Neil to walk you through the financial details.

所以總的來說，今年上半年表現強勁。我深受我們團隊致力於重新構想消費者和專業稅務業務的報稅體驗的鼓舞，未來幾年，這些團隊也將帶來更多創新。在小型企業領域，客戶成長依然強勁，因為我們將繼續專注於全球客戶獲取，而這得益於我們的雲端解決方案。綜上所述，接下來我將把麥克風交給尼爾，讓他為大家詳細介紹財務細節。

Thanks, Brad and good afternoon, everyone. For the second quarter of FY16, we delivered revenue of $923 million, up 23%.

謝謝布拉德，大家下午好。2016 財年第二季度，我們實現了 9.23 億美元的收入，成長了 23%。

Non-GAAP operating income of $114 million, versus a loss of $22 million a year ago. GAAP operating income of $42 million versus a loss of $89 million, non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.25 versus a loss of $0.06 and GAAP earnings per share of $0.09 versus a loss of $0.23 last year. These results reflect the changes we have made to our desktop software offerings in FY15, resulting in ratable revenue recognition from that point forward.

非GAAP營業收入為1.14億美元，去年同期虧損2,200萬美元。GAAP 營業收入為 4,200 萬美元，而去年同期虧損 8,900 萬美元；非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.25 美元，而去年同期虧損 0.06 美元；GAAP 每股收益為 0.09 美元，而去年同期虧損 0.23 美元。這些結果反映了我們在 2015 財年對桌面軟體產品所做的改變，由此產生了從那時起按比例確認的收入。

Turning to the business segments, total small business segment revenue increased 7% for the quarter. Small business online ecosystem revenue grew approximately 23% for the quarter, as customer acquisition in our online ecosystem continues to drive growth. QuickBooks online subscribers grew 49%, online payments customers grew 5%, and online payments charge volume grew 17%. Online payroll customers grew 17%.

從業務部門來看，小型企業板塊的總收入在本季成長了 7%。本季小型企業線上生態系統營收成長約 23%，因為我們線上生態系統中的客戶獲取持續推動成長。QuickBooks Online 用戶成長了 49%，線上支付用戶成長了 5%，線上支付交易額成長了 17%。線上薪資客戶成長了 17%。

I know some of you have been tracking QBO subs and the product itself. You should be aware that due to a one-week lag in the data, it's not always a good indicator of where we will end for the quarter. You also have to consider variability from marketing and pricing tests, seasonality, and other data and timing issues when looking at the subs number. Our second and third fiscal quarters are our strongest seasonally, as accountants drive adoption during tax season.

我知道你們中的一些人一直在關注 QBO 的訂閱用戶和產品本身。您應該了解，由於數據存在一周的滯後，因此它並不總是能很好地預測我們本季度的最終業績。在查看訂閱用戶數量時，您還必須考慮行銷和定價測試、季節性以及其他數據和時間問題帶來的波動。第二和第三財季是我們業績最好的兩個季度，因為在報稅季期間，會計師會推動產品的普及。

Switching to desktop, total desktop ecosystem revenue increased 3% for the quarter. QuickBooks desktop units increased 14% in the second quarter. Our strong desktop performance was driven by our pricing and promotion strategy. And for the full fiscal year, we expect desktop ecosystem revenue to be up slightly versus last year.

轉向桌面端後，本季桌面生態系統總收入成長了 3%。第二季 QuickBooks 桌面版銷量成長了 14%。我們強勁的桌上型電腦市場表現得益於我們的定價和促銷策略。我們預計本財年桌面生態系統營收將比去年略有成長。

Consumer tax revenue was up 29% versus the second quarter last year. Consumer tax revenue is significantly higher than last year, reflecting a shift from the third quarter to the second quarter, primarily driven by an extra weekend day in January this year. We still expect revenue growth of 5% to 7% for the full year. We're focused on execution for the remainder of the season, to grow the category, and expand our share. Our pro tax group revenue grew to $84 million, driven by changes to our desktop offerings, where revenue is now recognized ratably as services are delivered.

消費者稅收收入比去年第二季增加了 29%。消費者稅收收入比去年大幅增加，這反映出稅收從第三季度轉移到了第二季度，主要原因是今年一月多了一個週末。我們仍預計全年營收成長5%至7%。本季剩餘時間，我們將專注於執行策略，以發展該品類並擴大市場份額。我們的專業稅務集團收入成長至 8,400 萬美元，這得益於我們桌面產品的改變，現在收入是按服務交付比例確認的。

For the third and fourth quarters, ProTax revenue should be roughly the same as it was in FY15. We continue to take a disciplined approach to capital management, investing the cash we generate in opportunities that yield an expected return on investment greater than 15% over five years. We repurchased $455 million worth of shares in Q2, and $900 million remained on our authorization as of the end of the quarter. Our cash and investments balance was $334 million at the end of the second quarter.

第三季和第四季，ProTax 的營收應該與 2015 財年大致相同。我們繼續採取嚴謹的資本管理方法，將產生的現金投資於五年內預期投資報酬率超過 15% 的機會。我們在第二季回購了價值 4.55 億美元的股票，截至季末，我們授權的回購額度還剩 9 億美元。截至第二季末，我們的現金和投資餘額為 3.34 億美元。

On February 1, we secured $1.5 billion in debt financing, including a $1 billion revolver, and a new term loan of $500 million. One strategic use of this debt was the purchase of our San Diego campus, which we've previously discussed. Other potential uses include share repurchases, and acquisitions that closely align with our strategic priorities.

2月1日，我們獲得了15億美元的債務融資，其中包括10億美元的循環信貸和5億美元的新定期貸款。這筆債務的一個策略用途是購買我們的聖地牙哥校區，我們之前已經討論過此事。其他潛在用途包括股票回購，以及與我們的策略重點密切相關的收購。

Our Board approved a $0.30 dividend per share for our third fiscal quarter, payable on April 18. This represents a 20% increase versus last year. And one final note on capital allocation, we expect the process to sell Demandforce, QuickBase and Quicken will be completed this fiscal quarter, with total proceeds of approximately $500 million. We expect to report GAAP-only gains when these sales close.

董事會批准第三財季每股派息 0.30 美元，將於 4 月 18 日支付。比去年增長了20%。關於資本配置，最後補充一點，我們預計出售 Demandforce、QuickBase 和 Quicken 的流程將在本財季完成，總收益約為 5 億美元。我們預計這些交易完成後將公佈僅按美國通用會計準則計算的收益。

We provided our guidance for the third quarter in our press release. We also reiterated our full-year revenue, operating income, and EPS guidance. As a reminder, we expect to provide a final TurboTax unit update in late April after the tax season ends. And with that, I'll turn it back to Brad to close.

我們在新聞稿中提供了第三季的業績預期。我們也重申了全年營收、營業收入和每股盈餘預期。再次提醒，我們預計將在報稅季結束後的四月下旬提供TurboTax的最終版本更新。那麼，接下來就交給布萊德來結束今天的節目了。

All right. Thank you, Neil. We're pleased with our performance in the first half of the fiscal year, and based on these results, we're confident in our ability to deliver on the back half of the year, as well.

好的。謝謝你，尼爾。我們對本財年上半年的業績感到滿意，基於這些結果，我們有信心在下半年也能取得同樣的成績。

Now, we recognize the macro environment looks choppy, but if you look back over the three-plus decades as a Company, it is during uncertain times that our products are needed most by our customers. They still need to file their taxes, pay their bills, and look for ways to stretch their hard-earned dollars as far as they can, and we've never been in a stronger position to serve our customers. Over the past several years, we've transformed from a North American desktop software company to a cloud-driven global product and platform company, and that heavy lifting is now behind us.

現在，我們意識到宏觀環境看起來動盪不安，但回顧公司三十多年的發展歷程，正是在不確定的時期，我們的客戶才最需要我們的產品。他們仍然需要報稅、支付帳單，並想辦法盡可能地延長他們辛苦賺來的錢的使用壽命，而我們從未像現在這樣處於更有利的地位來服務我們的客戶。在過去的幾年裡，我們已經從一家北美桌面軟體公司轉型為雲端驅動的全球產品和平台公司，而這項艱鉅的任務現在已經完成了。

That's why we're continuing to play offense, investing in innovation to fuel customer growth. We have lots of opportunity in front of us, and we remain deeply committed to accelerating both customer and revenue growth. But it all starts with great people, and as always, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and their ongoing focus.

這就是為什麼我們要繼續採取進攻策略，投資創新以推動客戶成長的原因。我們面前有很多機遇，我們將繼續致力於加速客戶成長和收入成長。但這一切都始於優秀的人才，一如既往，我要感謝我們的員工的辛勤工作和持續專注。

On the subject of great people, as a part of this earnings release we announced the decision to rotate the general managers in our consumer tax and our small business units following the tax season. Effective May 1, Sasan Goodarzi will take over as the head of the Small Business Group, and Dan Wernikoff will assume responsibility as the general manager for our consumer tax business.

關於優秀人才，作為本次獲利報告的一部分，我們宣布了在報稅季結束後輪換消費者稅務部門和小型企業部門總經理的決定。自 5 月 1 日起，Sasan Goodarzi 將接任小型企業集團負責人，Dan Wernikoff 將擔任消費者稅務業務總經理。

This commitment to leadership mobility is consistent with Intuit's historical practice. As we accelerate our transformation to a single ecosystem, strengthening and developing senior talent to possess a deep understanding of all aspects of the ecosystem is more important than ever. Intuit's future success centers on our ability to solve important two-sided interactions, in ways that deliver tremendous benefits for both sides.

這種對領導階層流動性的承諾與 Intuit 的歷史做法是一致的。隨著我們加速向單一生態系統轉型，加強和培養高級人才，使其對生態系統的各個方面有深刻的理解，比以往任何時候都更加重要。Intuit 未來的成功取決於我們解決重要的雙邊互動問題的能力，從而為雙方帶來巨大的利益。

This rotation will enable Dan and Sasan to develop deep empathy for each of Intuit's core customers, as well as a better understanding and an appreciation of our collective products and technologies across the Company. We're able to implement leadership moves like this from a position of strength. We've built deep talent benches.

這次輪調將使丹和薩桑對 Intuit 的每位核心客戶產生深刻的同理心，並更好地了解和欣賞我們公司所有產品和技術。我們之所以能夠憑藉自身優勢地位實施這樣的領導舉措，是因為我們擁有強大的實力。我們已建立起強大的後備人才儲備。

We've developed great momentum, and we have clear visibility and strong outlooks in both small business and consumer tax. I'm excited to watch that momentum continue as Sasan and Dan bring a fresh perspective and a new set of capabilities to their respective teams. So with that, Latif, let's open it up and let's hear what's on everyone's mind.

我們已取得巨大發展勢頭，在小型企業和消費者稅收領域都擁有清晰的前景和強勁的發展勢頭。我很高興看到這種勢頭能夠繼續下去，Sasan 和 Dan 將為各自的團隊帶來新的視角和一系列新的能力。那麼，拉蒂夫，讓我們打開話匣子，聽聽大家的想法吧。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Raimo Lenschow, Barclays.

雷莫·倫肖，巴克萊銀行。

Congrats to a great second quarter. Two quick questions. First, you talked about the desktop numbers being better, and driven by price and promotion, but we also saw better unit numbers there. Can you talk a little bit about the trends there?

恭喜你們第二季取得佳績。兩個問題，簡單問一下。首先，您提到桌上型電腦的銷量更好，並且是由價格和促銷活動推動的，但我們也看到了桌上型電腦的銷售量更好。能談談那邊的發展趨勢嗎？

And then the second question was on the QuickBooks Online ARPU. If I do the calculation there, this was the second quarter where ARPU actually started to go a little bit higher. So the question is, are we on the trend back upwards again, or do I need to be aware about other drivers here? Thank you.

第二個問題是關於 QuickBooks Online 的 ARPU（每位使用者平均收入）。如果我進行計算，這是 ARPU 實際上開始略微上升的第二個季度。所以問題是，我們是否又回到了上升趨勢，還是我需要考慮其他因素？謝謝。

Thank you Raimo, this is Brad. So let me start with desktop units. The good news is we've been able to continue to drive strong QBO subscribers, 49% and over 80% of those are new to the franchise, while also growing our desktop units 14%.

謝謝你，雷莫，我是布萊德。那麼，就讓我先從桌上型電腦說起吧。好消息是，我們能夠繼續保持強勁的 QBO 訂閱用戶成長勢頭，達到 49%，其中超過 80% 的用戶是新用戶，同時我們的桌面設備銷量也增長了 14%。

And what we've basically learned is last year, we had tried to raise the price on desktop from $199 to $249, and we thought that might accelerate the migration to QBO. That didn't happen. In fact, we didn't see my graders accelerate. What we did see though is upgraders and those that were using existing desktop delaying their purchase.

我們基本上了解到，去年我們曾嘗試將桌面版的價格從 199 美元提高到 249 美元，我們認為這可能會加速用戶向 QBO 的遷移。那件事並沒有發生。事實上，我們並沒有看到我的評分員加快速度。不過，我們也看到一些升級用戶和那些使用現有桌上型電腦的用戶推遲了購買計劃。

So throughout the balance of last year we tested $199 price promotions, and we saw a really strong results. What we saw was it had no impact at all on QBO, there was no cannibalization, but what it do is it actually incented people to actually upgrade to the newer version. And so what you're seeing happen now is we have the ability to continue to accelerate QBO, continue to get existing desktop customers to move up to the newest version, and that's the best of both worlds. And so that's what's happening with desktop units, and as you heard, we plan -- we actually anticipate that desktop units and revenue will be up slightly for the year now.

因此，在去年剩餘的時間裡，我們測試了 199 美元的價格促銷活動，並取得了非常顯著的效果。我們發現，它對 QBO 完全沒有影響，沒有造成用戶蠶食，反而激勵人們升級到新版本。因此，您現在看到的是，我們有能力繼續加速 QBO 的發展，繼續讓現有的桌面用戶升級到最新版本，這是兩全其美的情況。所以，這就是桌上型電腦銷量的情況，正如你所聽到的，我們計劃——實際上我們預計今年桌上型電腦銷量和收入將略有增長。

The second question was on QBO and average revenue per user. As you know, we shared at investor day, we're solving for total revenue growth and subscriber growth, and our targets are 25% to 30% in revenue, and then about 40% subscriber growth, and that will get us to the targets we provided for FY16 and FY17. I do say however that we do see opportunities for ARPU to continue to accelerate over time.

第二個問題是關於QBO和每個用戶平均收入。如您所知，我們在投資者日上分享過，我們正在努力實現總收入成長和用戶成長，我們的目標是營收成長 25% 至 30%，用戶成長約 40%，這將使我們達到 2016 財年和 2017 財年的目標。不過，我認為 ARPU 的成長潛力是可以隨著時間的推移而持續加速的。

If you remember, we talked about a four-year customer comes in with a period of time where they have a trial and a promotional price. Once they move into the 13th month on the product, that ARPU goes up for that customer about 50%. So as more of these new customers start to age, we see a natural tailwind in ARPU. And of course we continue to get smarter in how we do attach services like payroll and payments.

如果你還記得的話，我們討論過一位四年的老客戶，他/她會有一段時間享受試用期和促銷價格。一旦他們使用該產品進入第 13 個月，該客戶的平均每位用戶收入 (ARPU) 將成長約 50%。因此，隨著這些新客戶逐漸老去，我們看到 ARPU 出現了自然成長的有利因素。當然，我們在如何附加工資和支付等服務方面也在不斷改進。

So we do see upside opportunity down the road, but for us ARPU is really an output metric. We want to stay focused on total revenue growth and customer growth, and then over time, we think by executing well, ARPU will improve. And we'll give you an update on ARPU in the next investor day, but we don't tend to focus on that on a quarterly basis.

因此，我們確實看到了未來的成長機會，但對我們來說，ARPU 實際上是一個產出指標。我們希望專注於總收入成長和客戶成長，然後隨著時間的推移，我們認為透過有效執行，ARPU（每用戶平均收入）將會提高。我們將在下次投資者日向您報告 ARPU 的最新情況，但我們通常不會按季度重點關注這一點。

Very clear. Thank you.

非常清楚。謝謝。

Brent Thill, UBS.

瑞銀集團的布倫特·蒂爾。

Brad, you mentioned the share gains that you're seeing early out of the gate here. I'm just curious if you could help everyone understand where you're seeing those share gains, and perhaps maybe where you think there's more room, where you feel that you could be doing better on tax? And for Neil, could you talk a little bit about the attach of payment and payroll? And it looked like on the payments side, was a little bit lower than some had thought. Can you give us a sense of what may be dragging that down? Thank you.

布拉德，你提到了你在這裡看到的早期股價上漲。我只是好奇您能否幫助大家了解您在哪裡看到了這些股票收益，以及您認為還有哪些方面有提升空間，或者您覺得在稅務方面可以做得更好？尼爾，你能談談付款和工資發放的問題嗎？而且，從支付方面來看，似乎比某些人預想的要低。您能否大致說明一下，是什麼因素導致了這種情況的發生？謝謝。

Brent, this is Brad. I'll take the first one on share gains. So with the IRS the data being published through February 19, they are showing that total returns received are down about 1.3%. They're suggesting that the self-prepared returns, the do-it-yourself category is up about 3% season to date, and the assisted is down 5%. If you do all the translation and machinations of that, that would suggest that the do-it-yourself category has picked up a little more than 2 points of share from assisted so far.

布倫特，這位是布拉德。我選第一個關於股票報酬的選項。根據美國國稅局截至 2 月 19 日公佈的數據，收到的退稅總額下降了約 1.3%。他們的預測是，自備式投資（DIY類別）本季迄今成長了約3%，而輔助投資則下降了5%。如果把所有這些翻譯和計算都考慮進去，那就表明到目前為止，DIY類別已經從輔助類別中奪取了略多於2個百分點的份額。

Now, in the back half of the season, we'll see assisted get a bit stronger as more complex returns come in, but the good news is the DIY category continues to take share from assisted. Then the question is, what about TurboTax share inside that category, and let me say, we have not seen this strong of market share advances at this time of the year in my recollection, and I've been here for a while. So right now, season to date, we're a little over 3.5 points of market share, and we're seeing market share increases in TurboTax Online, we're seeing market share increases in TurboTax desktop at retail, and we're also seeing an increase in the number of Free File Alliance customers using TurboTax, so it's across the board.

現在，在賽季後半段，隨著更複雜的回球出現，我們將看到輔助回球變得更強一些，但好消息是，DIY類別繼續從輔助回球手中奪取市場份額。那麼問題來了，TurboTax 在該類別的市佔率如何？讓我說，據我所知，我們從未在每年的這個時候看到過如此強勁的市場份額增長，而我在這裡工作也有一段時間了。所以目前，從本季至今，我們的市佔率略高於 3.5 個百分點，我們看到 TurboTax Online 的市佔率有所成長，TurboTax 桌面版在零售市場的市佔率也有所成長，而且使用 TurboTax 的 Free File Alliance 客戶數量也有所增加，所以各方面都在成長。

And then your question is where could we do better? Well, we're always constructively dissatisfied, but I have to tell you right now I feel really good about the product innovation the team has put out into the market. I love the reaction to our advertising and our marketing campaigns.

那麼你的問題是，我們還能在哪裡做得更好？嗯，我們總是會提出建設性的不滿，但我現在必須告訴你，我對團隊推向市場的產品創新感到非常滿意。我非常喜歡大家對我們廣告和行銷活動的反應。

I love the fact that we've taken a leadership role in fighting security, our cyber fraud, and leading the security efforts across the industry. And of course we have opportunities to continue to make sure we're answering phones faster, there is places in the product we always want to make easier for end-users, and the team's all over that. But by and large, I feel really good about our TurboTax execution so far.

我很高興我們能在打擊網路犯罪、網路詐欺以及引領整個產業的安全工作方面發揮領導作用。當然，我們還有機會繼續確保我們能更快接聽電話，我們始終希望產品中的某些方面能為最終用戶提供便利，而團隊也正全力以赴地致力於此。但總的來說，我對我們目前使用TurboTax的表現非常滿意。

And so Brent, moving to your attach question, there's really two things that are at fact there in play. One is the seasonality of the business. If you look back at the same quarterly trends from 2015, you'll see that Q1's a high point for us, attach rates tail off a little bit in Q2. Probably the bigger factor though is that we are including the self-employed units this year in the numbers, and they were very small last year in Q2. And those are typically earlier businesses, self-employed sole proprietors who don't have the same attach opportunities as our other QBO base overall, but those are the two main things to watch and understand the attach rates and payments in Q2.

所以布倫特，回到你關於附件的問題，實際上有兩個因素在起作用。一是業務的季節性。如果回顧 2015 年的季度趨勢，你會發現第一季是我們的高峰期，第二季附加率略有下降。不過，更重要的因素可能是，我們今年將自僱納入了統計數據，而去年第二季個體戶的數量非常少。這些通常是較早的企業，個體經營者，他們不像我們其他 QBO 用戶那樣擁有相同的附加機會，但這是需要關注和了解的第二季度附加率和付款的兩個主要方面。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Walter Prichard, Citi.

華特‧普里查德，花旗集團。

It's Steve Rogers on for Walter. Just wanted to see what you were seeing with the overall growth in the tax market, with returns being down, maybe we could start there. And then also with fraud, do you think that's playing a factor in the market growth year to date, or is it just seasonality?

史蒂夫·羅傑斯替沃爾特上場。我只是想了解您對稅務市場整體成長的看法，鑑於回報率下降，或許我們可以從這裡入手。那麼，關於詐欺問題，您認為這是否對今年迄今為止的市場成長產生了影響，還是僅僅是季節性因素造成的？

Thanks, Steve. It's Brad. So what we see every year is the tax business is always hard to predict in terms of total returns filed. There's macro trends that you can go back and look at over a decade, where there's just more procrastination. As tools become easier to use, people's 1099 and W2s tend to come out a little bit later.

謝謝你，史蒂夫。是布拉德。因此，我們每年都會看到，就申報的稅表總數而言，稅務業務總是很難預測。回顧過去十年，我們可以發現一些宏觀趨勢，例如拖延症越來越嚴重。隨著工具變得越來越容易使用，人們的 1099 表格和 W2 表格往往會晚一些才發放。

They tend to wait a little further into the season to file their taxes. And so that's been one thing that just continues, and it has been doing that for the last 10 years. The second is the good news is, with the IRS data that came out through February 19, this past week looks like returns actually went up about 3%, so even though we got out to a slow start, it brings the total season to date down to about 1.3 below prior-year, so I think you're starting to see momentum pick up.

他們通常會等到賽季後期才報稅。所以這件事就一直持續了下來，而且在過去的 10 年裡一直如此。第二個好消息是，根據美國國稅局截至 2 月 19 日公佈的數據，上週的回報率實際上增長了約 3%，因此，儘管我們開局緩慢，但迄今為止的總回報率比上年同期下降了約 1.3%，所以我認為你開始看到勢頭回升了。

The question behind your question, and I heard you ask it was fraud. I think collectively we as an industry and the government are absolutely making an impact on fraud. Now, whether or not that actually is correlated with the number of filings that have been filed so far, we won't know till the end of the year, when the IRS and the states actually tells us how many of the returns were fraudulent, but I can tell you right now, we have collectively leaned in. We've added 23 data schemas and protocols, we've strengthened the passwords, we've added opportunities to share information at a federal and state level between the private industry and the government, and we are starting to adopt a framework called Knit and I think all that is having an impact, and that is good news for all of us. But right now, I think the season's still playing out, and I think it's just the combination of procrastination, and then we'll see how much of it ends up being having an impact on fraud.

你問題背後的真正問題是，我聽你問過，那就是詐欺。我認為，我們整個產業和政府正在共同努力，對打擊詐欺行為產生實際的影響。現在，這是否真的與迄今為止提交的申報數量相關，我們還要等到年底，美國國稅局和各州才會告訴我們有多少申報表是欺詐性的，但我現在可以告訴你，我們已經齊心協力地投入其中。我們新增了 23 種資料模式和協議，加強了密碼安全，增加了私營企業與政府在聯邦和州層面共享資訊的機會，並且開始採用名為 Knit 的框架，我認為所有這些都在產生影響，這對我們所有人來說都是好消息。但就目前而言，我認為這個賽季仍在進行中，我認為這只是拖延症造成的，之後我們再看看它最終會對詐欺行為產生多大影響。

Great. Thanks.

偉大的。謝謝。

Keith Weiss, Morgan Stanley.

基斯‧韋斯，摩根士丹利。

This is Sanjit Singh sitting in for Keith. Wanted to toggle back to international QBO and get a sense of what's driving some of the deceleration there. It sounds like you pulled back a little bit in India and Canada. I wanted to see what your thoughts were longer-term in those two countries, and what are you seeing outside of Canada and India? What's your traction in the UK, Australia, maybe Germany? Your outlook on the international side?

這是桑吉特辛格代替基斯出場。想切換回國際版QBO，看看是什麼原因導致了那裡的交易速度放緩。聽起來你們在印度和加拿大有所縮減。我想了解您對這兩個國家的長期發展有何看法，以及您在加拿大和印度以外地區看到了什麼？你在英國、澳大利亞，或許還有德國的市場反應如何？您對國際情勢的看法是什麼？

Okay, Sanjit. This is Brad. I would say first of all overall we feel very good about our global progress, and I mentioned the countries, the UK, Australia, Brazil, where we made an acquisition last year with a company called ZeroPaper and now we just ported that onto the QBO platform in February, and of course we opened up France. And overall it's up 80%. We have over a 0.25 million paying subs, a lot more in the pipeline and trial periods, and using the product. So that looks very healthy.

好的，桑吉特。這是布拉德。首先我想說，總體而言，我們對我們在全球的進展感到非常滿意。我提到了英國、澳洲、巴西等國家，去年我們收購了一家名為 ZeroPaper 的公司，現在我們剛在 2 月將其移植到 QBO 平台上，當然，我們也開通了法國市場。總體而言，增長了 80%。我們有超過 25 萬付費用戶，還有更多用戶正在籌備試用期，而且都在使用該產品。看起來很健康。

I did mention the two countries you wanted me to drill deeper on, Canada and India. I'll start with Canada. Canada's about 30% of our global units today, and what really impacted its growth rate this quarter is last year, we had tried a test of putting QuickBooks online in retail stores. You would go and purchase it, just like you would a box. You would come home and then you would activate it hopefully. And while that drove subs, we did not like the retention rates. In fact we saw attrition was higher in that particular channel.

我確實提到了您希望我深入研究的兩個國家：加拿大和印度。我先從加拿大說起。加拿大目前約占我們全球銷售的 30%，而真正影響其本季成長率的因素是，去年我們嘗試在零售店中推廣 QuickBooks 線上服務。你會像買盒子一樣去買它。你回到家後，希望能夠啟動它。雖然這帶動了訂閱用戶成長，但我們對用戶留存率並不滿意。事實上，我們發現該管道的人員流失率較高。

We ran a similar test in the US. So we didn't feel those were good quality leads, we didn't think that was a good effective cost to acquire customers, so we pulled that out this year. And we have a little bit of a grow over on that. But the underlying health of the Canada QuickBooks online business is strong, we simply have pulled out a channel, and now we're going to have to grow over it.

我們在美國也進行了類似的測試。所以我們認為這些線索品質不高，我們認為這種獲客方式成本太高，因此今年我們取消了這項計畫。我們在這方面還有一些成長空間。但加拿大 QuickBooks 線上業務的基本面依然強勁，我們只是撤出了一個管道，現在我們必須在此基礎上實現成長。

India's a little different. To be very candid with you, our product in India, we had more work to do to get it compliant. We've now added two scrum teams of engineers, we've also pulled back on marketing just through the accountant channel, and we're starting to go more direct to small businesses, and so that ones in a little bit of a pivot.

印度的情況略有不同。坦白說，我們在印度的產品還需要做更多的工作才能符合相關規定。我們現在增加了兩個敏捷工程師團隊，我們也減少了僅透過會計管道進行的行銷，並且我們開始更多地直接面向小型企業，所以這算是一種小小的轉型。

I feel really good. We have 1,000 engineers that worked in our India development center, and they are all passionate about helping get QBO localized, and we have a lot of good end market knowledge. We're simply in a reset mode there. It's small enough part of our mix it's the perfect time to learn new lessons and to get readjusted and we are committed to both Canada and to India over the long-term. We're just in a matter right now we're making adjustments to the channel in Canada, and we're making sure the product is compliant in India.

我感覺非常好。我們在印度的研發中心有 1000 名工程師，他們都熱衷於幫助 QBO 實現在地化，並且我們擁有豐富的終端市場知識。我們現在只是處於重置模式。雖然它在我們業務組合中所佔比例很小，但現在正是學習新經驗和重新調整的最佳時機，而且我們對加拿大和印度都具有長期的策略承諾。我們現在正在調整加拿大通路，並確保產品符合印度的相關規定。

Great. One quick follow-up on payroll attach, and payment attach. Other than including QuickBooks Self-Employed, in the denominator, is there anything that you're seeing in the market that's changing your view in terms of what type of attach rate you can ultimately achieve?

偉大的。關於薪資單附件和付款附件，還有一個後續問題。除了將 QuickBooks Self-Employed 納入分母之外，您在市場上是否看到任何改變您對最終可實現的附加率類型的看法？

No. In fact, we're still seeing healthy performance there. The number's 21% of all new customers attaching payroll, 8% this quarter attach payments, that's because of the seasonality thing that Neil walked through. But when we actually look at the penetration rates and the opportunities for customers to come in, and we manage the cohorts, the 90-day cohorts, we see real strength in attach opportunities, and so there isn't anything in the external market. This is just a matter of us being able to execute quarter to quarter and continue to get smarter each time we move forward.

不。事實上，我們仍然看到那裡的業績表現良好。在所有新客戶中，有 21% 的人附加了薪資單，本季有 8% 的人附加了付款單，這是因為 Neil 提到的季節性因素。但當我們真正審視滲透率和客戶進入的機會，並管理用戶群（90 天用戶群）時，我們發現附加機會非常強勁，因此外部市場並沒有什麼優勢。這只是我們能否每個季度都有效執行，並且每次前進都變得更加明智的問題。

Great. Thanks so much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Scott Schneeberger, Oppenheimer.

史考特‧施內伯格，奧本海默。

Brad, a couple tax questions up front, this delay in the IRS start, looking at what you would deem ACA returns versus non-ACA returns, are you seeing that as anything characteristic just in one of these procrastination, and maybe late forms?

布拉德，先問幾個稅務問題。關於國稅局的延遲申報，以及你認為的ACA申報和非ACA申報的區別，你覺得這是否僅僅是拖延症導致表格逾期申報的特徵？

Scott, we honestly just don't see any impact of ACA on any customers' decisions, whether it's which way they choose to file their taxes, or when they choose to file their taxes. It continues to be a very high converting area for us on TurboTax.com. This year, as you know, about 90% of tax filers, whether they last year qualified for a 1095-A and this year they got a 1095 B or C form, which is a form that they need to have to basically say that they have insurance, it hasn't had any impact. You can see we came out of the gate strong, and so we're seeing on the pro tax side of the business where we have an assisted method, similar trends. We see good healthy start to the season, so we don't see any impact from ACA, and we don't think that's what's causing any sort of IRS delays from our perspective.

史考特，說實話，我們真的看不到《平價醫療法案》對任何客戶的決定有任何影響，無論是他們選擇哪種報稅方式，還是選擇何時報稅。在TurboTax.com網站上，這仍然是我們轉換率非常高的領域。如您所知，今年大約 90% 的納稅人，無論他們去年是否符合領取 1095-A 表格的條件，而今年是否收到了 1095 B 或 C 表格（這是他們需要用來證明自己有保險的表格），都沒有受到任何影響。你可以看到我們開局強勁，因此我們在專業稅務業務方面也看到了類似的趨勢，我們採用輔助方法。我們看到賽季開局良好，健康狀況良好，因此我們沒有看到《平價醫療法案》(ACA) 的任何影響，而且從我們的角度來看，我們認為這不是導緻美國國稅局出現任何延誤的原因。

Thanks. A follow-up still on the TurboTax category. Two separate questions, the desktop strength in TurboTax if you could elaborate that? And then one additional, the volume and revenue relationship for consumer tax growth this year. Obviously you're trending quite well in volume right now, maintain the guidance for the year. If you could address the relationship as you see the year play out? Thank you.

謝謝。TurboTax類別的後續報告。這是兩個獨立的問題，能否詳細說明TurboTax桌面版的功能？此外，還有一點，即今年消費者稅收成長的數量和收入關係。顯然，你們目前的成交量趨勢相當不錯，請維持今年的成交量預期。如果你能談談你對這一年發展趨勢的看法，你會怎麼看待這段關係？謝謝。

So on TurboTax desktop strength, as you know, we learned a pretty tough lesson last year. We have made some product changes in the early part of last season that honestly angered our customers, and last year, we gave them the $25 difference in what they would have been able to get for a Deluxe product versus what it required them to move up to Premier, and we made a promise we would return the desktop product line-up features to the way they had been, and we did at this year. We kept our promise.

如你所知，去年我們在TurboTax桌面版的強大功能方面吸取了一個相當慘痛的教訓。我們在上個季度初對產品進行了一些改動，坦白說，這激怒了我們的客戶。去年，我們向他們退還了 25 美元，讓他們可以享受豪華版產品與升級到高級版產品所需的價格之間的差價。我們承諾將桌面產品系列的功能恢復到以前的狀態，而今年我們做到了。我們信守了承諾。

And we had an aggressive campaign to go out against any customer we thought that we might have lost to a competitor, and quite frankly, our data shows that we're getting them back. In fact, our conversions from our competitors are up 3X in the desktop business. Our share is up a couple of points in retail, and the Net Promoter in the desktop business is up 13 points year-over-year. So I think this is about us learning a tough lesson, we made a mistake, we recovered well from it, and our customers came back and said, great, we're back with TurboTax again.

我們開展了一場積極的行銷活動，爭取挽回任何我們認為可能流失到競爭對手那裡的客戶，坦白說，我們的數據顯示，我們正在把他們贏回來。事實上，在桌面業務方面，我們的轉換率比競爭對手高出 3 倍。我們在零售領域的市佔率上升了幾個百分點，桌面業務的淨推薦值年增了 13 個百分點。所以我認為這是因為我們吸取了一個慘痛的教訓，我們犯了一個錯誤，但我們很好地從中恢復過來，我們的客戶也回來了，說，太好了，我們又回來使用TurboTax了。

In terms of volume relationship, our goal was always to expand the category, and then to grow customers faster than revenue. As you know, ultimately over time those customers' tax situations will become more complex, and over multiple years we can maximize the lifetime value. So right now, we're seeing good solid growth in units as you heard us report today, 9% overall and 12% in TTO, TurboTax Online, and while we're still maintaining our guidance of 5% to 7%, we really like the trends so far this tax season and we think that ratio will continue to play out, with more units coming in faster than revenue for the balance of the season.

就銷售關係而言，我們的目標始終是擴大品類，然後讓客戶成長速度超過營收成長速度。如您所知，隨著時間的推移，這些客戶的稅務狀況最終會變得更加複雜，透過多年的努力，我們可以最大限度地提高客戶的終身價值。正如我們今天報告的那樣，目前我們看到銷量穩定成長，整體成長9%，TurboTax Online（TTO）成長12%。雖然我們仍然維持5%至7%的成長預期，但我們非常看好本報稅季迄今的趨勢，我們認為這一比例將繼續保持，本報稅季剩餘時間內銷量增長速度將超過收入增長速度。

Thanks, Brad.

謝謝你，布拉德。

Ross MacMillan, RBC Capital.

Ross MacMillan，RBC Capital。

Brad, I had a question just on the QBO adds, so it was a good number, ahead of your plan. When I do the mix, I think the core domestic, ex self-employed were actually down a little bit year over year, in terms of net adds. That's the net you -- and I was just curious, you run different promotions, there's different ways for you to manage that.

布拉德，我有個關於QBO新增內容的問題，所以這個數字不錯，比你預想的要好。從我的分析來看，核心家庭用戶（以前是自僱人士）的淨新增用戶數實際上比去年同期略有下降。這就是你的淨收益──我只是好奇，你進行不同的促銷活動，管理起來也有不同的方法。

How do you think about that net add number? And the real question is there anything that we're bumping up against in terms of a limit on how many domestic, what I call core non-self-employed adds that you could add each quarter? I'd love your thoughts. Thanks.

你覺得這個淨增數字怎麼樣？真正的問題是，我們是否在每季可以新增的國內（我稱之為核心非自僱）新增人口數量方面遇到任何限制？我很想聽聽你的想法。謝謝。

Thanks, Ross. I will start with, we feel good about the overall QBO ads. We certainly had a couple of countries outside the US, Canada and India that I just spoke to, but by and large, the international businesses are doing really well. And we like our momentum in the US. In fact, we just crossed 1 million active paying customers in the United States, which is a major milestone.

謝謝你，羅斯。首先，我們對QBO的整體廣告效果感到滿意。當然，除了美國、加拿大和印度之外，我們也有幾個國家與我們進行了溝通，但總的來說，國際企業的發展狀況非常好。我們很滿意目前在美國的發展動能。事實上，我們在美國剛剛突破了100萬名活躍付費用戶，這是一個重要的里程碑。

In terms of opportunity ahead in total addressable market, there's about 29 million small businesses in the US. If you back out the self-employed, you're still looking at the neighborhood of between 8 million and 12 million, and we currently have 1 million that are using QuickBooks Online. So we aren't running out of any sort of opportunities to grow. It's just a matter of us continuing to lean in and execute, and we're seeing improvements in our Net Promoter scores, we're seeing a lot of good traffic coming to QuickBooks Online, and we're seeing improved conversion rates.

就潛在市場規模而言，美國約有 2,900 萬家小型企業。如果把自僱者排除在外，使用者數量仍在 800 萬到 1,200 萬之間，而目前有 100 萬人正在使用 QuickBooks Online。所以，我們並不缺乏任何發展機會。我們只需要繼續努力執行，就能看到淨推薦值有所提高，QuickBooks Online 的流量也大幅成長，轉換率也提升了。

So from a quarter-to-quarter perspective, as Neil said you have some seasonality that kicks in. Sometimes small businesses come in one quarter and then the next quarter you may see a little bit of ebb and flow. But overall we feel good, which is why we have raised the low-end of our guidance, and we're reaffirming our 2017 outlook. We really like the momentum.

所以從季度角度來看，正如尼爾所說，會受到一些季節性因素的影響。有時候，小企業在一個季度生意興隆，但下一個季度可能會出現一些波動。但總體而言，我們感覺良好，因此我們提高了業績預期下限，並重申了我們對 2017 年的展望。我們非常喜歡這種發展勢頭。

Great. One follow-up on the desktop side, has anything changed in terms of how you think the desktop business will play out over the path to 2017 and 2018, given that you're starting to see unit growth again? I know there's a price dynamic, but I'd love your thoughts around how you think that plays out medium-term.

偉大的。關於桌上型電腦業務方面，鑑於您已經開始看到銷量再次成長，您認為桌上型電腦業務在 2017 年和 2018 年的發展趨勢是否有所改變？我知道價格會受到波動的影響，但我很想聽聽你對中期走勢的看法。

Ross, I think we started to get wiser about our multi-year outlook last year, and we shared it with you as, good news is, we're getting more of our QuickBooks Online users that are new to the franchise, which means we're expanding the category. We were getting fewer customers from desktop to migrate over, but since we are talking about lifetime values and profitability, they are pretty equivalent on both sides, so we just want to make sure they stay with us, they don't go anywhere else.

羅斯，我認為我們去年開始對多年展望有了更清晰的認識，我們也和你分享了這一點，好消息是，我們QuickBooks Online的用戶中，有越來越多的是新用戶，這意味著我們正在擴大用戶群。從桌面端遷移過來的客戶越來越少，但由於我們談論的是終身價值和盈利能力，所以兩者之間其實差不多，因此我們只想確保他們留在我們這裡，不要去別的地方。

But one of the things we learned last year is by raising the price to $249, we basically had customers staying but not renewing on their desktop, and they weren't moving to QBO, and that was actually a lose for us. And so our promotional pricing now basically says, we're going to keep those people who want to stay on desktop at least active, continuing to buy from us and use the newest version and get the best product, and we're going to continue to lean into QBO.

但我們去年學到的一件事是，將價格提高到 249 美元後，基本上客戶只是留在了桌面版上，並沒有續訂，他們也沒有遷移到 QBO，這實際上對我們來說是一種損失。因此，我們現在的促銷定價基本上是說，我們要讓那些想繼續使用桌面版的用戶保持活躍，繼續從我們這裡購買產品，使用最新版本，獲得最好的產品，我們將繼續大力發展QBO。

And I think what you see happening overall is the best of both worlds. I think ultimately you're going to see a portion of customers still on desktop in 2017, 2018, and I would go all the way out to 2020 and further. There's just a group of people that are going to want to stay on desktop. We want to make sure they're using the most recent version and continuing to buy from us, while we continue to open up the category with QBO. And so I think that's the only difference to our outlook, is we hope to have more active customers on desktop, while we continue to add new users in QBO.

我認為目前整體呈現的是兩全其美的局面。我認為最終你會看到一部分客戶在 2017 年、2018 年，甚至到 2020 年及以後仍然使用桌上型電腦。總會有一部分人想繼續使用桌上型電腦。我們希望確保他們使用最新版本並繼續從我們這裡購買產品，同時我們將繼續透過 QBO 開放該類別。所以我認為，我們與線上版的唯一區別在於，我們希望在桌面端擁有更多活躍用戶，同時繼續在QBO中增加新用戶。

Great. Thanks again and congrats on the start strong start to the tax season.

偉大的。再次感謝，並恭喜報稅季開局順利。

Michael Millman, Millman Research.

Michael Millman，Millman Research。

More on tax, to what extent do you think that the reduced growth industry numbers on do-it-yourself is caused by the slower pick-up in returns? Also, following up on Scott's numbers questions, has there been a change, and to what extent in the ratio, yours now, free versus paid? And maybe you can give us some idea of where the California suits on racks stand, if they're still going on?

關於稅務方面，您認為DIY產業成長放緩在多大程度上是由於稅收回升速度放緩造成的？另外，針對 Scott 提出的數字問題，你們的免費用戶與付費用戶的比例是否有變動？變化程度如何？您能否透露一下加州西裝的銷售情況，看看是否還在進行？

Okay. I'm going to ask you to repeat your first question because I'm not sure I got the essence of it, which was you said reduced growth due to slow pick-up --

好的。我想請你重複一下你的第一個問題，因為我不太確定我是否理解了它的要點，你剛才說成長放緩是因為市場反應遲緩——

IRS numbers show reduced growth, as you said it was up 3% this year. Last year, was up 6.7%. So there's been reduced growth. Do you think that early on was a consequence of the slower refund pick-up early in the year? That was the first question.

正如你所說，美國國稅局的數據顯示成長放緩，今年成長了3%。去年同期成長了6.7%。所以成長速度放緩了。你認為早期出現這種情況是否是因為年初退款速度較慢造成的？這是第一個問題。

I got it. And I got the other two. Thank you for clarifying, Michael. I appreciate it. Right now, it's hard to describe, because none of us really know, it's only conjecture, is why are the number of returns being filed with the IRS down 1.3% season to date?

我得到了它。我拿到了另外兩個。謝謝你的解釋，邁克爾。謝謝。目前很難描述原因，因為我們誰也不知道，這只是猜測，那就是為什麼本季迄今為止向美國國稅局提交的報稅表數量下降了 1.3%？

We'll have hypotheses, but the good news is we know that come April 18, and yes, there actually is an emancipation day this year, so instead of April 15 being the day, since it happens over the weekend, everyone has until Monday, April 18. And so the good news is people are going to have to file their taxes by then, so what we look at is the ratio, how many shooting to sending their taxes in through a self-prepared method versus assisted. And we really like the fact that right now, season to date, 2% of the total market are leaning more to self prepared than they are assisted.

我們可能會有一些假設，但好消息是我們知道，到了 4 月 18 日，是的，今年確實有一個解放日，所以不是 4 月 15 日，因為那天是周末，所以每個人都有時間到 4 月 18 日星期一。所以好消息是，屆時人們都必須報稅，因此我們關注的是比例，有多少人選擇自行報稅，又有多少人選擇接受協助報稅。我們非常高興地看到，目前（本季至今），有 2% 的市場更傾向於自己準備食材，而不是接受幫助。

So I think it's probably a safe assumption to say any year-over-year comparisons are probably driven by the fact that fewer people so far have filed their returns versus last year. But the good news is the ratio of people leaning into do-it-yourself versus assisted continues the trend we've seen for the last 10, which is more people are filing taxes on their own now than going to somebody to do it for them.

因此，我認為可以合理假設，任何同比比較都可能是由於今年迄今為止提交報稅表的人數比去年少造成的。但好消息是，傾向於自己動手報稅而不是尋求幫助的人數比例延續了過去 10 年的趨勢，即現在更多的人自己報稅，而不是找人代勞。

In terms of changes in free and paid, we have had a really strong campaign for two years in a row, in absolute zero. And as you saw last year, not only did it drive unit growth and share gains, we actually exceeded our revenue guidance last year. So there's a monetization model behind that, that we're super excited about.

就免費和付費內容的變化而言，我們連續兩年開展了非常強勁的行銷活動，但始終保持在零成長。正如您去年所看到的，它不僅推動了銷售成長和市場份額提升，而且我們去年的收入實際上也超過了預期。所以這背後有一個我們非常興奮的獲利模式。

This year in terms of mix, free is up a couple points more than it was last year, and that's in alignment with our guidance, and so we feel very good about the free to pay mix, and honestly we feel even better about our monetization this year, because we learned a lot from last year's program. So I'm feeling good overall about free to pay. California racks, actually good news is, we have our General Counsel sitting here, so Laura Fennell, is there any update we have on the California situation?

今年，就內容組成而言，免費內容比去年增加了幾個百分點，這與我們的預期相符，因此我們對免費和付費內容的構成感到非常滿意，坦白說，我們對今年的盈利情況更加滿意，因為我們從去年的項目中學到了很多。總的來說，我對免費付費模式感覺很好。加州的情況，其實有個好消息，我們的總法律顧問勞拉·芬內爾（Laura Fennell）就在這裡，請問加州的情況有什麼最新進展嗎？

We don't right now.

我們現在沒有。

I guess that was a clear attorney answer. We don't. So I don't have anything to share for you there, Michael.

我想這應該算是律師式的回答吧。我們不。所以，我沒什麼可以跟你分享的，麥可。

Do you have any target date as to when something will occur?

你們有具體的目標日期嗎？

On that last question, on the California situation?

關於最後一個問題，關於加州的情況？

Yes.

是的。

No. We haven't been notified by anyone in the industry. And so we don't have any knowledge of what's going on there. No.

不。業內人士尚未通知我們。所以我們對那裡發生的事情一無所知。不。

Appreciate it. Thanks, Brad.

謝謝。謝謝你，布拉德。

All right. Thank you, Michael. Appreciate it.

好的。謝謝你，麥可。謝謝。

Gentlemen, as there are no further questions, would you like to close with any additional remarks?

各位先生，既然沒有其他問題了，你們還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, Latif. Thank you. I want to thank everybody for your questions today. As you can tell, we're encouraged by the strong start and momentum we've built up. I have to say we're really competitive, so we're looking forward to the remainder of the tax season and our fiscal year, but we are feeling quite confident in our full-year outlook, and so I want to thank everybody and we look forward to speaking with you soon. Take care, and have a great afternoon.

是的，拉蒂夫。謝謝。感謝大家今天提出的問題。正如你所看到的，我們對目前的良好開局和發展勢頭感到鼓舞。我必須說，我們真的很有競爭力，所以我們很期待接下來的報稅季和本財年的工作，但我們對全年的前景相當有信心，因此我要感謝大家，我們期待盡快與你們見面。保重，祝你下午愉快。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today's conference call.

女士們、先生們，感謝各位的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。